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I think that the market is trying to find a villain right now.

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And Sailor is that guy.

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Like, he'll be the hero in the bull markets.

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And then in the bear markets, you know, he'll be villainized by a lot of the community.

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I do think that they did make a misstep when they used that cash reserve to pay off that $1.38 billion of convertible debt.

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You have to think of how the market is pricing the risk of the instrument.

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And that's simply what it is.

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It's just the simple fact that right now, if you go to their transparent information, you can see that right now the effective yield is probably slightly over 13%.

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So really, at the end of the day, it's simply the market signaling to strategy, hey, in order to essentially by stretch, if we want to take our money, buy your equity, then we need to be compensated above 13% right now to take on that added risk.

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All right, let's do it.

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Adam Livingston, thank you for coming on the show, man.

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This was a bit of a last minute one.

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Stretch has been having a real tough time for the last week or so.

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And I thought you were the right guy to get on the call and figure out if Sailor is trapped

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in this trade.

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But welcome to the show, man.

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Thank you, Danny.

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I've been a longtime fan of the show.

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So thank you so much for having me.

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You texted me last night at like close to midnight my time.

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I have a new kid at home.

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She's about seven weeks old.

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And I thought, will I get some sleep?

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Will I be sleep deprived?

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Can I even articulate my thoughts?

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But we're going to give it a go.

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So thanks for the invite, man.

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I'm a huge fan.

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No, thank you for pulling this out of the bag. That's impressive. With a seven-week-old at home,

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I don't know if I'd have said yes to that, but thank you for coming on the show.

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So I want to start with the stretch thing. It's trading at just under $89 right now,

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way below what's meant to be par. How big a deal is this? Is this an existential threat to stretch?

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It depends on how you define existential threat, of course. But in my opinion, no.

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ultimately it's an equity. It's a credit hybrid equity thing. It's a credit-like instrument in

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equity wrappers. So you have to think of how the market is pricing the risk of the instrument. And

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that's simply what it is. It's just the simple fact that right now, if you go to strategy.com

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and you go to their transparent information, you can see that right now the effective yield is

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probably slightly over 13%. So really at the end of the day, it's simply the market signaling to

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strategy, hey, in order to essentially by stretch, if we want to take our money, buy your equity,

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then we need to be compensated above 13% right now to take on that added risk.

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So what a lot of people do fail to understand, though, is that there is no stable coin peg. I do

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see a lot of fun about this peg that's broken. And to be fair, I do think there is somewhat

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accuracy with the term because they have something that they call the par stability mechanic,

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I think is the actual phrase that they use.

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And at the end of the day, it's simply that,

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hey, we're going to raise the dividend

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based on a volume weighted average price guidance

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every single month.

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If there's too much volume,

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if the VWAP's below a certain price,

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then we'll be more than happy to raise the dividend.

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I expect that we'll see that.

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And then on top of that,

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once the stock actually trades at $100 or above,

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above that par value,

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on the other end, you have strategy there

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issuing more shares into the market.

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So I think a lot of people forget that

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if that ATM at the market facility wasn't in place, then the effective yield would actually

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be driven down a lot more because of the demand. So there is a par stability mechanic, but I do

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think there's a lot of people that don't understand whether or not it's like a stable coin

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Terra Luna peg. I think that there's lots of comparisons made. But no, I don't see anything

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wrong with it. It's just the market saying, hey, we want an additional percent to be compensated

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holding this thing. So, I mean, it's not the first time that it's traded below that par value of $100.

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Like in, when was it? In sort of November last year, it traded way below, but this is definitely

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the furthest below. And it's not actually traded at par since I think mid-May. So it's been

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over a month now. Do you think it will get back to par?

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I do for sure. Yeah. I just look at the overall credit quality of the company and

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I see they have decades of Bitcoin dividend coverage. They just raised $300 million last

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week. So if you look at their year-to-date capital raising, they are raising about 18 times what their

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daily dividend bill is or their monthly dividend bill. So the capital markets access remains open.

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They can continue stacking Bitcoin, stacking cash. I do think that they did make a misstep

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when they used that cash reserve to pay off that $1.38 billion of convertible debt.

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So there's been a few missteps that strategy has made in my time as a shareholder. But ultimately,

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I don't think there's anything existential.

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It's just the market wants an additional percentage point,

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the effective yields up,

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and then the overall credit quality,

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I do think will win out

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and it doesn't help when Bitcoin's down 50%.

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And timing didn't help either

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because Bitcoin dropped like $23,000 in no time.

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They paid off that debt

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and then Bitcoin went from 83K to 60K.

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So that's like, I don't know what the exact percentage is,

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but 20% of your Bitcoin value just immediately going away.

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So that doesn't help the optics either.

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That sort of retiring that convertible debt is something that I didn't understand at all.

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I'm not sure what the thinking was behind that.

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And I don't know if the company have sort of aired that and said why they did it.

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But I thought that cash reserve was there.

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So you had dividends for two years in cash.

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There was no reason that strategy were going to sell Bitcoin to pay the dividends.

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Like they had that as a buffer.

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And then they got rid of almost all of that.

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I actually, I just saw before we started recording overnight my time, I think they might have

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hit the ATM again and put a lot more cash in a reserve to do that. But it made no sense to me.

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That convertible debt wasn't due until I think 2029. Why did they do that?

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Yeah. So the soonest that the debt was puttable, where I believe that the bondholders could

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ask strategy to repurchase them, I think it was in September of 2027. So I agree with you,

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still a decent length of time away. So I agree that it was a misstep, but

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But you know giving strategy the benefit of the doubt I think when you look at the way the equity was trading and you look at the true MNAV of strategy there was a hefty premium on the common stock And so if you going to pull the lever on selling MSTR

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and if it's net accreted to the shareholders,

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I would have rather had them do that, to be honest with you.

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I think that probably tapping the USD reserve was not the right call.

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And what's really interesting is that when you compare

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the USD reserve of strategy to that of Strive,

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it is really remarkable to see how the market is pricing both of these digital credit instruments

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because we both know that it's like competing for retail flows right now.

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The sailors coming out and saying,

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Stretch is 80% held by retail.

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And I'm not naive enough to think that Seda isn't competing for the same flows.

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But it's something like Strive has 43 times less Bitcoin than Strategy

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or Strategy has 43 times more Bitcoin coverage.

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but because strive has 11 more months in cash or eight months now you're just seeing a huge

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discrepancy in how the things are trading um now obviously because of the outstanding

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SATA the volume is a lot smaller so you need a lot more liquidity to move STRC um but it's

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interesting to see how the things are trading but yeah I would tend to agree with you I don't think

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that use of the reserve was a good move if you look in the SEC uh filing uh or maybe it was the

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strc prospectus i can't remember exactly it must have been the filing after the usd reserve was

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announced but they do talk about how they intended to use it and then they also had the phrase

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something along the lines of we have total discretion to use it for whatever we want to so

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the debate about whether or not they misled anybody it's like well the language is in there

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that they have discretion so but yeah as an overall strategic move i don't know if i agree

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yeah like the the misleading people is not something that i mean i'm not a micro strategy

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shareholder so it doesn't concern me at all really that part of it it's just whether it was the right

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move i i don't i don't understand it necessarily but like i i believe they've just raised or just

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hit the atm to raise more money to have that sort of backup so i think that's probably a good move

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but the thing that i don't necessarily get another thing i don't necessarily get is like

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why would you be a mstr shareholder when it seems like you're just going to get diluted at sort of

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every opportunity. Yeah, I think that if you look at history and you look at the overall total

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returns over a long time horizon, it's pretty apparent that MSTR has considerably outperformed

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Bitcoin in fiat terms. We were just talking before the show, as we get further into this Bitcoin bear,

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I become more convinced that holding the treasury companies definitely isn't for everybody because

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of the added volatility. And it requires a decent degree of understanding of Saylor's financial

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engineering. But overall, I do think, you know, you look to history, you look at the strategy,

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can they continue to issue equity that's accreted to the shareholders? Can they amplify the Bitcoin

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exposure via the preferred stock issuance? And then if you think that they can pay those dividends,

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I mean, that's mechanically how the Bitcoin exposure is amplified. So, you know, it's added

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risk. You are taking the counterparty risk. You don't own the Bitcoin. You are economically exposed

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to the residual. But some people like that trade. I'm an MSTR shareholder myself. I buy Bitcoin

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every day. I don't own Stretch, but I do with my risk capital. That's the way I think through it.

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I think of Bitcoin as saving, and then Bitcoin is the hurdle rate in my mind. I need to beat

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Bitcoin if I'm going to invest in an equity. So I am an MSTR shareholder for that reason.

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Just getting back to the SATA versus Stretch thing, it's been interesting to see SATA do

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quite well and and i think one of the points you made before i could be wrong on this but

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like that you said that stretch is 80 retail and i'm purely guessing here i would imagine

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sata is not the same even higher like they they seem like very retail products at the moment and

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it's part of the problem that if you play sort of retail games you win retail prizes and like this

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is this is part of it like i'm sure huge liquidations played a part in stretch dropping

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to like $83 or whatever it did. And I also think you said that the market is deciding that the cash

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reserves are sort of the thing that they care about more. I just think it's higher yield. I

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think people just chase higher yield. So I don't know how you kind of balance those two things out.

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Yeah. I think that what we're witnessing right now in the market, Danny, I think you're spot on.

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I should have said that actually, because I agree 100%. I've talked a lot about this where

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I saw this study recently. I think Pierre Rochard tweeted it out or somebody else. I can't remember exactly, but it was essentially Bitcoin. Like how much of Bitcoin is explained by an efficient market hypothesis? Like just Bitcoin itself, not even like all of these crazy derivatives that, you know, these market participants continue to come up with, at least these issuers of the digital credit things.

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So, like, I continue to see pricings in my mind with the strategy preferreds that to me, in my opinion, like just totally don't make any sense at all, especially when you look at strike, for example, where you have an embedded call option on MSTR going up, which is essentially a call option on Bitcoin going up.

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and that thing will trade at the same yield as STRC.

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I see a lot of these weird mispricings.

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So I don't think that Bitcoin can be explained

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by the efficient market hypothesis.

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And it's almost like these things aren't either.

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But I agree with you 100%

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when they're competing for retail flows.

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I don't think that a lot of people

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are doing the hard risk analysis of them,

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to be honest with you.

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I think that they're looking at a headline yield number

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and think, oh, I'll get paid daily

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and I'll get paid more money.

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They get that dopamine hit.

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So I agree with you.

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And did the daily dividends from Seta have an impact on Stretch?

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And is that part of the reason we've had this drawdown?

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Because I know that before Stretch were doing sort of bimonthly dividends and before Seta

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were doing the daily, people were swapping between the two, like getting in the lock-in

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date, getting the yield and then moving back.

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And that kind of got completely arbed out.

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Like the arbitrage was there.

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That gone now because people have to hold Seta every day if you want to get the dividend end Has that meant that the retail has gone there parked their capital there and Seta now has less inflows Sorry the stretch has now less inflows Does that play any part in this

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Yeah, I think it has to. There's no way of getting around that for sure. I think that

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we are so much in an echo chamber with, number one, Bitcoin itself in terms of the broader world,

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and then on top of people even know what stretch and Seta are. So ultimately, they've issued

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$110 plus billion of STRC in a year. I think that's been a success for them.

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They paid every single dividend on time. So like, it's going to take a while for the track record to

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really open up strategy only as a B minus credit rating right now. So we're in this weird period

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where they have to prove themselves, prove the credit quality of these instruments for a number

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of years, maybe before you see larger institutional capital pools, even think of this meeting

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mandates, for example. So right now we're just in an infancy stage and there's highly little doubt

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in my mind that a lot of people didn't sell Stretch to go to SEDA. Yeah, it's been, I want

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to pull up a chart actually. Let me just grab this. Cool. This is by my boy Checkmate. Can you see

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this? Yep. So one of the interesting things of this chart to me, he wrote a newsletter piece on

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on stretch a couple of days ago um is the number here at the end so i believe and someone can

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correct me if i'm wrong but this shows that there is no stretch holder that has made money at these

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prices including the yield including the dividend um like this is underwater in quite a big way

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um and and i want to know sort of your opinion on this and if this signifies anything about the

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digital credit narrative maybe not playing out how people expected maybe like is it still working is

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it real yeah uh first thing i'd say i don't know if i need to fact check this the graph is really

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small so i don't know what exactly what it says i see the price for the stocks i'm assuming here

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it's this stretch total return is at 99.795 so it's um but it was ipo'd at 89 so it's a positive

201
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return so i actually just ran the math on this it was ipo'd on i believe july 28th and uh stretch

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00:14:54,910 --> 00:15:00,890
has an overall total return because it's only like if it was IPO to 89 and it's around $89 today

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with every single successful dividend paid, then they're at about a plus 6% total return.

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So ever since the stretch IPO, stretch is about plus 6% total return while Bitcoin is minus 50.

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And so I've actually made this point where people say, Adam, like you're cherry picking data. And

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I'm like, well, I'm not really. I'm looking at the entirety of the data set, but I decided, okay,

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Fine. I actually plugged it into AI just to number crunch everything. And I found out that of every single possible holding period between Bitcoin and STRC, stretch has won out on 86% of all possible time horizons since the stretch IPO when you're comparing it to Bitcoin.

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so the stretch return is when you're including the dividends it does go up into the right versus

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bitcoin falling off 50 so when you couple that with every dividend being paid successfully

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and there are times of high volatility like now in february for example but overall it's been a

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success the dividends have been paid um they have it has stripped the volatility out of bitcoin

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considerably uh just showing that it's still a total return positive after a uh 50 bitcoin price

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corrections so 86% of all possible time horizons since the IPO and uh like at least total return

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00:16:19,230 --> 00:16:24,650
since the IPO has been positive yeah I'm in the same boat I'd heard back from Checkmate so the

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first the first chart that I showed you which was the um stretch returns and his point was that

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anyone who bought a par is underwater at this point and that the other prefs are below IPO on

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total return basis so and like the question was that like i guess are these preferred working as

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intended yeah uh me and checkmate must have different math because um i ran it today it's

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00:16:50,410 --> 00:17:00,750
on my x account i have a totally different um number it was 89 or 90 at ipo and then we but

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he's saying anyone who bought the hundred dollar peg or hundred dollars yeah like yeah like uh

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that is well i don't know at any point in time yeah then probably yeah definitely yeah that's

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sorry i was misunderstanding because his line was for like a month period so now we're cleared up

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but yeah yeah 100 and then the other one that all the other prefs are below ipo price yeah yeah on

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a total return yeah he's correct about all that stuff yeah when if you would have bought at 100

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yeah you'd be underwater right now even after uh factoring and all the dividends paid that's true

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so what was your question i'm sorry well and the other prefs being below ipa ipo price

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including like with total returns it's are the prefs actually working as they were intended

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yeah i do think so i think that when you look at the amount of capital that's raised by them

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um like we are seeing some higher effective yields but nothing that signals that

230
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the dividends can't be paid you look at the capital markets access they are just like

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00:18:01,270 --> 00:18:04,450
they're having their most successful year of capital raising ever.

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Like 2026 with a Bitcoin bear market,

233
00:18:07,190 --> 00:18:10,730
they're still raising more money and buying more Bitcoin at a faster pace than

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ever, at least in a January through now year to date basis.

235
00:18:15,450 --> 00:18:19,470
So when it comes to the credit quality, I think the risk is mispriced.

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I think it's wild that they have to pay that high.

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Ultimately they raised billions of dollars and they bought Bitcoin.

238
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So I think like that's a win for them.

239
00:18:27,090 --> 00:18:30,910
And then the people who bought them, I think, yeah, like just like with anything,

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if you would have bought Bitcoin in October,

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you would have been down 50% right now.

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So buying Stretch,

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you would have mitigated a lot of downside.

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That's just mathematically true.

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So yeah, I think that they're working just as intended.

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I don't think anything's broken.

247
00:18:44,510 --> 00:18:46,610
I think their credit quality is being questioned

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by a lot of retail shareholders.

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00:18:48,090 --> 00:18:50,330
But overall, I think the credit quality is great.

250
00:18:50,870 --> 00:19:01,595
And I think when Bitcoin returns you see them trade back up just like how they were last May So I think that what will happen Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin

251
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252
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273
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274
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275
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276
00:20:45,655 --> 00:20:50,655
Every SIM has a static ID and carriers, ad networks and bad actors all use it to track you.

277
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The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.

278
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279
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Their identifier rotation feature changes your ID every 24 hours

280
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so you look like a different subscriber every single day.

281
00:21:04,235 --> 00:21:05,495
And SIM swaps are off the table.

282
00:21:05,875 --> 00:21:09,035
Your number can't move without a 24-word phrase that only you hold.

283
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There's also no name at sign up, no social security number, and there's no profile to

284
00:21:13,695 --> 00:21:14,255
build on you.

285
00:21:14,675 --> 00:21:18,475
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286
00:21:18,735 --> 00:21:24,495
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287
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288
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00:21:30,755 --> 00:21:36,675
Okay, because the question I have is, how do they raise capital going forward?

290
00:21:36,755 --> 00:21:38,415
Because it seems like they have a few options.

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00:21:38,415 --> 00:21:42,775
They can obviously sell the preferreds, but that then increases their dividend liabilities.

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00:21:43,795 --> 00:21:47,735
They can raise more debt potentially, but again, that adds leverage.

293
00:21:48,575 --> 00:21:53,015
They can and have and probably will continue to dilute shareholders.

294
00:21:54,075 --> 00:21:55,815
Do you see that as the best option?

295
00:21:55,875 --> 00:21:57,315
Because the other option is sell Bitcoin.

296
00:21:57,755 --> 00:22:01,715
And as a strategy shareholder, is selling Bitcoin not the best thing for you?

297
00:22:01,775 --> 00:22:07,075
If they just start selling enough to pay the dividends, the Bitcoin market can easily absorb

298
00:22:07,075 --> 00:22:07,635
that amount of money.

299
00:22:07,635 --> 00:22:11,315
I think it's, is it around just under $2 billion a year or something like that?

300
00:22:11,775 --> 00:22:13,195
That they, is that right?

301
00:22:13,355 --> 00:22:13,775
That they owe?

302
00:22:13,895 --> 00:22:14,055
Yeah.

303
00:22:14,215 --> 00:22:17,235
The Bitcoin market can take $2 billion a year in sell side.

304
00:22:17,415 --> 00:22:18,935
Like, is that the best option?

305
00:22:19,115 --> 00:22:20,855
I don't think they'll do it, but is that the best option?

306
00:22:21,835 --> 00:22:22,115
Yeah.

307
00:22:22,555 --> 00:22:24,935
What's really cool is that they have so much optionality.

308
00:22:25,395 --> 00:22:28,075
As a Bitcoiner who like, I hate selling Bitcoin.

309
00:22:28,275 --> 00:22:31,115
I don't, that doesn't drive well with me, to be honest with you.

310
00:22:31,375 --> 00:22:36,215
It's maybe a personal preference where this idea of selling Bitcoin, the market absorbing,

311
00:22:36,215 --> 00:22:39,335
It's $1.7 billion is the annual dividend obligation.

312
00:22:40,535 --> 00:22:42,235
And do I think it can be done successfully?

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00:22:42,355 --> 00:22:42,935
A hundred percent.

314
00:22:43,095 --> 00:22:45,735
Like the total volume of Bitcoin is orders of magnitude higher.

315
00:22:45,855 --> 00:22:50,335
Like the market would absorb that no problem as evidenced by the fact that he bought 48

316
00:22:50,335 --> 00:22:52,575
times as much Bitcoin the next week after he sold.

317
00:22:52,935 --> 00:22:54,315
And the price probably went down.

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00:22:54,535 --> 00:22:57,255
So like the market can absorb it no problem.

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00:22:57,435 --> 00:23:02,435
But we really need to look at their total optionality with the true MNAV.

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00:23:02,435 --> 00:23:09,535
people continue to look at the basic MNAV with the market cap in the numerator, the market cap,

321
00:23:09,635 --> 00:23:14,335
which is like the value of all the shares, you know, divided by the Bitcoin nav. That's not

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00:23:14,335 --> 00:23:18,215
telling the entire story because that's not looking at the preferred stock and the outstanding

323
00:23:18,215 --> 00:23:24,555
preferred shares. And then so strategy does a better job with enterprise value where it incorporates

324
00:23:24,555 --> 00:23:30,615
the overall, just a more cohesive picture of the capital structure. But if you look at everything

325
00:23:30,615 --> 00:23:33,075
with the outstanding preferred stock

326
00:23:33,075 --> 00:23:38,475
and you essentially do like an algebraic look

327
00:23:38,475 --> 00:23:39,575
at the capital structure

328
00:23:39,575 --> 00:23:43,735
and find out what is the senior claim Bitcoin.

329
00:23:44,455 --> 00:23:45,955
So like when they issue Stretch

330
00:23:45,955 --> 00:23:47,555
and they use those proceeds to buy Bitcoin,

331
00:23:48,035 --> 00:23:49,815
you have to think of the residual,

332
00:23:50,115 --> 00:23:52,895
what's left over economically for the MSTR shareholders.

333
00:23:53,575 --> 00:23:56,915
And what you'll find is that the residual value

334
00:23:56,915 --> 00:23:58,715
of balance sheet value

335
00:23:58,715 --> 00:24:01,095
that's backing the MSTR shareholders,

336
00:24:01,255 --> 00:24:03,195
it's not just the Bitcoin, it's also the cash.

337
00:24:03,575 --> 00:24:04,635
Because as an equity holder,

338
00:24:04,755 --> 00:24:07,495
you are exposed economically to the total residual,

339
00:24:07,715 --> 00:24:08,475
not just the Bitcoin,

340
00:24:08,795 --> 00:24:11,215
which is why Bitcoin per share is incomplete.

341
00:24:11,675 --> 00:24:13,735
But if you crunch that MNAV number right now,

342
00:24:14,215 --> 00:24:15,155
last time I ran the numbers,

343
00:24:15,215 --> 00:24:17,175
it was like a 1.2X MNAV right now.

344
00:24:17,955 --> 00:24:19,355
And so Saylor has come out

345
00:24:19,355 --> 00:24:21,235
and corrected people online about this,

346
00:24:21,235 --> 00:24:23,955
where if you look at the total capital markets activity,

347
00:24:24,095 --> 00:24:25,615
it is accreted to MSTR shareholders.

348
00:24:25,975 --> 00:24:27,815
So in terms of a lever to pull,

349
00:24:27,815 --> 00:24:33,735
that would be my number one by far because the stock is still trading at a 15 to 20 true premium

350
00:24:33,735 --> 00:24:39,655
and i think that bitcoin is close to a bottom i could be wrong maybe it goes down to 50k or

351
00:24:39,655 --> 00:24:46,235
something but i don't think that um the premium will probably drop any more than it is now and if

352
00:24:46,235 --> 00:24:51,855
it does like if the true cebem nav goes down to one they only have to dilute the shareholders five

353
00:24:51,855 --> 00:24:57,235
percent per year to pay that annual dividend and that's if they don't tap the bitcoin or the cash

354
00:24:57,235 --> 00:25:08,055
So to me, I'm like the MSTR shareholders are seeing if all the premium evaporates to the residual, they would have to dilute the stock only 5% per year.

355
00:25:08,055 --> 00:25:12,535
And in exchange, you get that 40% Bitcoin amplification.

356
00:25:12,535 --> 00:25:15,835
So I think a lot of MSTR shareholders look at that tradeoff.

357
00:25:15,860 --> 00:25:21,600
And if they're bullish on Bitcoin from a pretty big overcorrection, the math makes sense for them.

358
00:25:22,060 --> 00:25:26,680
It's interesting because I was saying this to you before we started the show.

359
00:25:27,540 --> 00:25:32,200
I get so much hate for trying to ask these questions about treasury companies.

360
00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:34,500
I've said a million times I'm skeptical of them.

361
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,800
And honestly, I've come to the realization that the truth is I just don't really like them.

362
00:25:38,100 --> 00:25:40,960
My gut is just telling me I don't really like them.

363
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:42,500
There's nothing wrong with that.

364
00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:43,960
There's nothing wrong with that at all.

365
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:45,840
I don't like the narrative of digital credit.

366
00:25:46,060 --> 00:25:46,800
Like I don't like,

367
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,080
like all these sort of financial terms around Bitcoin,

368
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:50,1000
like Bitcoin is just Bitcoin.

369
00:25:51,140 --> 00:25:52,640
Like I like the idea.

370
00:25:52,840 --> 00:25:54,140
I like what strategy started as.

371
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,540
I like having a business that generates money

372
00:25:56,540 --> 00:25:57,520
and putting that money in Bitcoin.

373
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:58,080
Awesome.

374
00:25:58,340 --> 00:25:59,580
Like I love what Block are doing.

375
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:01,040
I love what Tesla and SpaceX are doing.

376
00:26:01,120 --> 00:26:03,720
Like having just a cool business that makes money

377
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:05,660
and that money goes into Bitcoin is awesome.

378
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,800
What I'm not a huge fan of.

379
00:26:07,860 --> 00:26:09,480
And again, like it's not that I think it's going to fail

380
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:10,240
or I don't think it'll do well.

381
00:26:10,300 --> 00:26:11,240
It might do amazingly well.

382
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:12,480
I just don't like it.

383
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:13,440
Yeah.

384
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:19,1000
And I feel like there's a lot of the sort of at least Twitter world that are kind of coming to that same conclusion.

385
00:26:19,1000 --> 00:26:21,620
Like there's been a lot of hate on Saylor.

386
00:26:21,900 --> 00:26:25,080
And to be fair, I think probably that's bear market things.

387
00:26:25,180 --> 00:26:26,200
I'm sure Saylor will be fine.

388
00:26:26,300 --> 00:26:28,980
I'm sure he's not losing sleep over people like me complaining on Twitter.

389
00:26:29,540 --> 00:26:33,300
But like, why do you think this hate has sort of arisen?

390
00:26:33,940 --> 00:26:34,960
Yeah, that's a really good question.

391
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:40,340
I think that there is a philosophical split in the Bitcoin community that's like really eating it away.

392
00:26:40,460 --> 00:26:45,260
It kind of are previously at least better vibe that we had going on.

393
00:26:45,620 --> 00:26:50,440
I think that it's because people are defining Bitcoin's win condition differently.

394
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,080
Like you just said, you don't like the the treasury companies.

395
00:26:54,120 --> 00:26:55,720
And that's a very common viewpoint right now.

396
00:26:55,800 --> 00:27:04,460
I think a lot of people, they, you know, people come to Bitcoin through a variety of ways and they have their own win condition attached to it.

397
00:27:04,460 --> 00:27:09,540
Because to me, like Bitcoin is this monolith that's just this amazing, pristine, free, neutral

398
00:27:09,540 --> 00:27:10,400
monetary network.

399
00:27:10,580 --> 00:27:17,380
And then a lot of people like to attach their subjective, often political philosophy win

400
00:27:17,380 --> 00:27:17,820
conditions.

401
00:27:17,940 --> 00:27:19,580
What does it look like for Bitcoin to win?

402
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,100
And I think a lot of people are finding disagreement about that.

403
00:27:23,580 --> 00:27:28,600
A lot of people, you know, they'll say Bitcoin doesn't win until government is abolished.

404
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,480
And we live in an ANCAP society where we're all transacting equally.

405
00:27:31,480 --> 00:27:56,220
And then there's some of us that are saying, well, I don't know if that's necessarily a pragmatic thing. Like Bitcoin has improved so many people's lives and it's 16, 17 years since the Genesis block was mined. So I think it's really a philosophical disagreement about how Bitcoin will win. Like, what does it mean for Bitcoin to win? So I don't know what your thoughts are on what it looks like for Bitcoin to win, but maybe that's the source of the disagreement.

406
00:27:56,220 --> 00:27:58,120
I mean that could be it

407
00:27:58,120 --> 00:27:58,740
and like to me

408
00:27:58,740 --> 00:27:59,680
Bitcoin is winning

409
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:00,980
like I wouldn't say

410
00:28:00,980 --> 00:28:01,520
it's already won

411
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:02,020
but it's winning

412
00:28:02,020 --> 00:28:03,400
and I think it will continue to win

413
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:05,720
but the problems

414
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:06,480
that I have around it

415
00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:07,780
and the areas of concern

416
00:28:07,780 --> 00:28:08,440
that I have

417
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:08,900
are like

418
00:28:08,900 --> 00:28:10,180
I don't love

419
00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:11,320
that one company

420
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:12,580
has 4% of the Bitcoin supply

421
00:28:12,580 --> 00:28:13,200
and again

422
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:14,380
there's nothing I can do about this

423
00:28:14,380 --> 00:28:14,860
and then

424
00:28:14,860 --> 00:28:16,320
like they can use Bitcoin

425
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:17,080
however they want

426
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:17,760
and they should

427
00:28:17,760 --> 00:28:19,580
but I don't love

428
00:28:19,580 --> 00:28:20,740
that they have 4% of the supply

429
00:28:20,740 --> 00:28:21,1000
like I don't know

430
00:28:21,1000 --> 00:28:23,240
where the sort of

431
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,060
crucial number is

432
00:28:24,060 --> 00:28:24,740
where it's too much

433
00:28:24,740 --> 00:28:25,200
but like

434
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:26,140
if it's

435
00:28:26,220 --> 00:28:31,680
80 90 percent of the supply clearly too much is 4 percent of the supply too much maybe i i just

436
00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:38,620
don't know i don't i don't love that um and like the other thing that i'm unclear on is whether

437
00:28:38,620 --> 00:28:44,060
this is now not actually attracting institutional investment but but dissuading institutional

438
00:28:44,060 --> 00:28:50,860
investment because like like you said um michael saylor and and fong have come out and said like

439
00:28:50,860 --> 00:28:54,980
80 percent of the people buying stretch is retail and to me it's like that's not a good thing like

440
00:28:54,980 --> 00:28:59,520
I thought this was meant to be aimed at institutional type investors. And are institutions

441
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:04,100
looking at this and being like, let's wait and see how strategy shakes out? And is it actually

442
00:29:04,100 --> 00:29:08,120
putting people off? Are they concerned that strategy has too much Bitcoin can pretend like,

443
00:29:08,180 --> 00:29:12,240
you know, quote unquote, manipulate Bitcoin? Like these are the sort of some of the concerns that I

444
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:18,920
have around it. Yeah. It's tough because obviously it's a question of like wealth inequality and the

445
00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:24,300
Gini coefficients, like how much is too much? And like, we know there's a finite amount and humans

446
00:29:24,300 --> 00:29:28,300
have never been face to face with true scarcity before. So I find it like psychologically

447
00:29:28,300 --> 00:29:33,340
fascinating how us humans are still absorbing it. I think we haven't even thought through the

448
00:29:33,340 --> 00:29:40,180
proper ramifications of Bitcoin yet. In terms of the institutional capital thing, I think that what

449
00:29:40,180 --> 00:29:44,800
you're seeing when you look objectively, like over the past couple of years, a lot of people say that

450
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:51,800
Bitcoin had its IPO moments. The OGs are selling like crazy. The individuals are selling their coins

451
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:56,900
hand over fist to the institutions. Like that has been the trend since the beginning of 2024.

452
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:01,140
River does a great job where they'll post their graphic about this every quarter or so,

453
00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:05,920
where it's like, you know, I don't know if it's 10 or eight consecutive quarters where

454
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:11,740
like hand over fist individuals continue to sell to the institution. So I think that you raise an

455
00:30:11,740 --> 00:30:16,800
interesting point, like long term, will that be seen as a negative? But overall, when we look at

456
00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:22,080
the trend of this institutional monetization of Bitcoin. I think it's actually quite the opposite.

457
00:30:22,220 --> 00:30:28,920
We've seen a lot of inflows. The IBIT holders are surprisingly sticky, I think. So yeah, I think

458
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:33,120
that you raise a very interesting question long term. But like, to me, I'm like, I don't know if

459
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:38,460
it's a cause for concern as of yet. If Saylor gets half of the network, maybe it will be. But

460
00:30:38,460 --> 00:30:41,700
yeah, thinking that hypothetical future is an interesting thought experiment.

461
00:30:41,700 --> 00:30:48,120
yeah i was reading um checkmate's recent piece on this and and he raised a point i think is super

462
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:52,460
valid it's the like in a bear market the market goes hunting for the most leveraged people and

463
00:30:52,460 --> 00:30:58,320
they like to take them out to the woodshed and uh and chop them up and and he put a chart in there

464
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,700
which i'm actually struggling to find but i'll put on the video so this shows like where the um

465
00:31:02,700 --> 00:31:09,980
where where the first impairments are for for strategy and it's around 25k um like i don't think

466
00:31:09,980 --> 00:31:11,040
we're going to go to 25K.

467
00:31:11,340 --> 00:31:12,640
But I don't think it's impossible.

468
00:31:13,460 --> 00:31:15,440
And so do you think that the market

469
00:31:15,440 --> 00:31:16,820
is looking at these liquidation levels

470
00:31:16,820 --> 00:31:18,780
and will potentially try and hunt them?

471
00:31:19,380 --> 00:31:21,360
Yeah, I think that it depends

472
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,060
on what you mean by hunt exactly.

473
00:31:24,220 --> 00:31:26,740
When it looks like Checkmati's math

474
00:31:26,740 --> 00:31:27,820
is spot on with mine,

475
00:31:27,900 --> 00:31:29,540
where it's $25,000

476
00:31:29,540 --> 00:31:41,578
where the common equity is impaired where I see a lot of people get what I see a lot of people get wrong is simply that this is calculating kind of that residual that I was just talking about where

477
00:31:41,578 --> 00:31:47,958
the Bitcoin net asset value would equal the senior capital. So like the outstanding preferreds in the

478
00:31:47,958 --> 00:31:53,938
debt. So there's no room for the common equity. But when we look back in 2022, this exact thing

479
00:31:53,938 --> 00:31:58,758
happened. A lot of people don't realize this, but if you would calculate the residual exposure for

480
00:31:58,758 --> 00:32:05,578
the MSTR shareholders. At the bottom in November of 2022, it was negative 14,000 sats per share.

481
00:32:05,818 --> 00:32:12,918
So it was in the negative and the market never valued MSTR at zero. So a lot of people run this

482
00:32:12,918 --> 00:32:18,158
math and they'll say, you know, MSTR goes to zero. And it's like, well, that's separating

483
00:32:18,158 --> 00:32:25,458
how the market values the residual versus how the residual is calculated. So essentially it won't go

484
00:32:25,458 --> 00:32:30,858
to zero because there's kind of an embedded call option where, hey, maybe Bitcoin will go up again

485
00:32:30,858 --> 00:32:36,898
one day. And obviously, you know, price is sentiment and people will look for those

486
00:32:36,898 --> 00:32:43,918
opportunities. The stock was trading at a 0.7 XM nav that invites the the opportunity for people

487
00:32:43,918 --> 00:32:48,118
to snipe that leverage Bitcoin at such a low price because your return is just higher. So

488
00:32:48,118 --> 00:32:53,678
that it's impaired in the sense where the residual is calculated at zero. But like in terms of

489
00:32:53,678 --> 00:33:00,138
mstr going to zero um i just don't see that happening at all it's when you actually run the

490
00:33:00,138 --> 00:33:09,398
math it's about 2022 they had minus 14 400 sats per share at the bottom in terms of bitcoin

491
00:33:09,398 --> 00:33:17,858
exposure for mstr shareholders and now it's 145 000 today so it's a huge gulf like the capital

492
00:33:17,858 --> 00:33:24,598
structure so much healthier. So like if we go to 25K, I don't think that it will. Like that's a

493
00:33:24,598 --> 00:33:30,718
crazy level of oversold. But yeah, MSTR doesn't go to zero when that happens. It's just the residual

494
00:33:30,718 --> 00:33:34,758
calculation. Okay. That's good nuance because I wasn't fully aware of that. And I actually didn't

495
00:33:34,758 --> 00:33:39,698
realize that it traded below that in 2022. That's interesting. Yeah. Yeah. 2022 is way worse for

496
00:33:39,698 --> 00:33:46,098
strategy, like crazy negative exposure. And I think the stock was a bottom like $11. So yeah,

497
00:33:46,098 --> 00:33:52,598
it's quite a different story than today. What's your take on the whole digital credit narrative?

498
00:33:52,598 --> 00:34:00,398
Because to me, Bitcoin's just money. And I don't fully buy into the digital credit narrative that's

499
00:34:00,398 --> 00:34:04,058
growing amongst the treasury companies. What's your take on that? Yeah, I don't mind the term

500
00:34:04,058 --> 00:34:10,338
digital credit. I think that you're evaluating the equities through a credit risk lens.

501
00:34:10,338 --> 00:34:16,478
this dictionary definition of provisioning money for the expectation of a return.

502
00:34:17,178 --> 00:34:21,638
Like to me, it fits the dictionary Merriam-Webster definition. So a lot of people take issue with it.

503
00:34:21,938 --> 00:34:27,178
I don't take issue with that term. I agree with you. I don't like the digital money term either,

504
00:34:27,178 --> 00:34:32,898
though. There was this clip, me and Jeff Walton, my friend from True North Jeff,

505
00:34:33,298 --> 00:34:37,678
with my recent appearance on True North, we kind of got clipped up where a lot of maxis were

506
00:34:37,678 --> 00:34:43,218
freaking out on us. I think that a lot of people miss the context of the entire situation where

507
00:34:43,218 --> 00:34:50,018
people were acting like I was advocating for digital money that's like tranched credit

508
00:34:50,018 --> 00:34:56,838
replacing Bitcoin as a medium of exchange. I view it as like if some people want to do that as like

509
00:34:56,838 --> 00:35:03,018
an incremental improvement over traditional fiat, like if the capital goes to Bitcoin,

510
00:35:03,018 --> 00:35:07,618
I would view that as a net positive for the overall capitalization of the Bitcoin network.

511
00:35:07,678 --> 00:35:12,118
but um yeah i'm with you i think the idea that you can like

512
00:35:12,118 --> 00:35:18,378
Tranch out these risk tranches from a security and that's somehow money

513
00:35:18,378 --> 00:35:22,178
i don't buy that narrative so i don't like the digital money thing

514
00:35:22,178 --> 00:35:24,638
but uh digital credit i don't have an issue with

515
00:35:24,638 --> 00:35:29,498
okay fair um with strategy we're sorry we're stretch now trading it like

516
00:35:29,498 --> 00:35:34,958
it's 88 post market um this is going to take a long time to get back to par right

517
00:35:34,958 --> 00:35:39,238
I think last time it traded significantly below, it was a couple of months until it got back to $100.

518
00:35:39,598 --> 00:35:42,318
This is going to be sort of a prolonged stretch bear market, I imagine.

519
00:35:42,418 --> 00:35:42,798
Do you agree?

520
00:35:44,838 --> 00:35:52,558
It's tough to say because on February 5th, we saw the largest nominal Bitcoin crash in the history of the asset.

521
00:35:52,938 --> 00:35:55,258
And stretch rebounded in one day.

522
00:35:55,658 --> 00:36:03,718
So I'll be honest with you, I expected kind of the same thing where I was like, man, a rebound to 98, that should be expected.

523
00:36:03,718 --> 00:36:12,978
And we actually did briefly touch 97, not after this Thursday, but with this recent overall price stress, we did see it like reach 97.

524
00:36:13,698 --> 00:36:19,018
I think that overall, they're going to follow the guidance that they've set forth with the volume weighted average price.

525
00:36:19,158 --> 00:36:24,498
If the VWAP is below $95, they will probably raise the dividend to 12%.

526
00:36:24,498 --> 00:36:29,638
That leads me to wonder how many of the people chasing that headline yield with SEDA at 13.

527
00:36:30,438 --> 00:36:32,378
Like, is that enough to bring it back up to par?

528
00:36:33,718 --> 00:36:37,698
You saw Fong Lee today tweet that he bought a million dollars worth of STRC.

529
00:36:37,858 --> 00:36:40,038
So the CEO is doing his part, I guess.

530
00:36:41,058 --> 00:36:45,958
But yeah, I do think it'll go up to par just because I think that overall risk is mispriced

531
00:36:45,958 --> 00:36:48,098
with the strategy preferreds.

532
00:36:48,178 --> 00:36:50,178
I think the credit quality of the company is amazing.

533
00:36:50,778 --> 00:36:55,198
And I think that it's crazy that strategy even has to pay 11.5%.

534
00:36:55,778 --> 00:37:01,098
If I'm being honest with you, I think it's super wild that the dividend rate is as high

535
00:37:01,098 --> 00:37:01,558
as it is.

536
00:37:01,558 --> 00:37:05,758
it tells me that the overall broader market doesn't appreciate Bitcoin. And as a hardcore

537
00:37:05,758 --> 00:37:11,458
Bitcoiner, I hate that. I mean, that's something I do agree with. And if I was ever looking at

538
00:37:11,458 --> 00:37:15,978
buying Stretch, like this is, I imagine one of the best buying opportunities you might ever get.

539
00:37:16,098 --> 00:37:19,698
Like, I don't think that this is going to wipe to the right. I think it will get back to $100.

540
00:37:20,378 --> 00:37:24,198
Like, if you're into it, like I get why you buy it at this point, like it seems very attractive.

541
00:37:26,158 --> 00:37:31,218
The interesting thing, though, is like Bitcoin price is going to determine some of this.

542
00:37:31,558 --> 00:37:39,298
And I feel like this works both ways where strategy can have a really good impact on the price.

543
00:37:39,398 --> 00:37:41,778
And I think right now, this is the big overhang we have.

544
00:37:41,778 --> 00:38:02,136
I think if we didn have stretch trading way below I imagine that Bitcoin price would be doing better than it is I don know if you agree with that Yeah I might have misunderstood you Are you saying that the Bitcoin price is being influenced by the stretch fiasco I wouldn be surprised if it was because people are then baking in like the Michael

545
00:38:02,136 --> 00:38:03,516
Saylor risk of Bitcoin.

546
00:38:05,316 --> 00:38:10,316
Yeah, I think that I'm not so sure if I agree with that, like as being a huge because I do

547
00:38:10,316 --> 00:38:15,076
like going back to what I said earlier, I think that we are in a super niche of a niche

548
00:38:15,076 --> 00:38:15,516
of a niche.

549
00:38:15,516 --> 00:38:19,596
I don't think people know what digital credit or STRC particularly are.

550
00:38:19,696 --> 00:38:23,136
Even amongst Bitcoiners, I see so much misunderstanding about it.

551
00:38:24,456 --> 00:38:25,236
So I don't think that-

552
00:38:25,236 --> 00:38:27,356
But I don't think they have to understand it to look at this.

553
00:38:27,416 --> 00:38:30,596
In fact, maybe it actually works because they don't understand it, because they might look

554
00:38:30,596 --> 00:38:35,896
at strategy being like, this looks like it's at risk of blowing up, therefore Bitcoin is

555
00:38:35,896 --> 00:38:36,516
going to go down.

556
00:38:36,956 --> 00:38:38,276
I think it can be that simple.

557
00:38:38,536 --> 00:38:38,716
Yeah.

558
00:38:38,796 --> 00:38:43,256
I just don't think that Bitcoiners who are orange-pilled, they're going to be dissuaded

559
00:38:43,256 --> 00:38:48,956
from buying Bitcoin because of sailors preferred equity. It might have a I'm not saying it doesn't

560
00:38:48,956 --> 00:38:55,036
have a portion of the influence on the on the price of Bitcoin. Of course, like if you understand

561
00:38:55,036 --> 00:39:01,096
Austrian economics and human action praxeology, it's the price is the reflection of an endless

562
00:39:01,096 --> 00:39:05,236
uncountable number of variables. But like in terms of an overall driver, I don't think that that's

563
00:39:06,016 --> 00:39:11,416
sizable. I'd be interested to see like research on on the sentiment behind Bitcoin and stretch or

564
00:39:11,416 --> 00:39:15,996
something to maybe explore that further. But on its face value, I'm not so sure if I agree.

565
00:39:16,236 --> 00:39:21,556
But I think you're right. I don't think orange pill Bitcoiners who are just stuck in SatsCare,

566
00:39:21,936 --> 00:39:27,256
and I think they'll still be buying consistently, but it's the big money that I wonder if this is

567
00:39:27,256 --> 00:39:33,616
putting off. Yeah, I think it's definitely a possibility. I just don't know. It's difficult

568
00:39:33,616 --> 00:39:39,036
to say to the extent that it is. It's like an unfalsifiable thing right now. I just wish that

569
00:39:39,036 --> 00:39:43,516
we had more market data to tell us that. But I think that it's an interesting theory.

570
00:39:44,056 --> 00:39:46,756
If you hold Bitcoin for long enough, there's probably going to come a time when you need

571
00:39:46,756 --> 00:39:50,756
some dollars. Maybe it's for a business expense, a tax bill, a property purchase,

572
00:39:50,836 --> 00:39:55,016
but whatever it is, you might not want to sell your Bitcoin. That's where Ledin comes in.

573
00:39:55,456 --> 00:39:59,296
Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin so you can access cash without selling your stack.

574
00:39:59,816 --> 00:40:03,856
They've originated over $10 billion of loans since 2018, and they've operated through multiple

575
00:40:03,856 --> 00:40:08,576
Bitcoin cycles. And Ledin has now introduced new tiered rates, so there's no negotiation,

576
00:40:08,576 --> 00:40:12,976
no guesswork it's just the larger the loan the lower the rate and you can see all the rates up

577
00:40:12,976 --> 00:40:17,656
front before you apply the important part for me though is the custody with leaden's custodied

578
00:40:17,656 --> 00:40:22,196
loans your bitcoin collateral is never lent out to generate interest you also get all the tools

579
00:40:22,196 --> 00:40:27,436
to properly manage the loan including ltv alerts auto top-ups and the ability to repay whatever

580
00:40:27,436 --> 00:40:32,676
you want with no penalties i've used leden myself the application has taken me less than 15 minutes

581
00:40:32,676 --> 00:40:36,776
and you get dollars in your account within hours so you don't need to choose between getting

582
00:40:36,776 --> 00:40:41,796
liquidity and sticking to your long-term Bitcoin plan. With Ledin, you can do both. Check your rate

583
00:40:41,796 --> 00:40:47,676
using the loan calculator at ledin.io and use the code WBD for 0.25% off your first loan.

584
00:40:48,176 --> 00:40:54,136
That's L-E-D-N.io and use the code WBD. If you're already self-custody Bitcoin, you know the deal

585
00:40:54,136 --> 00:40:58,596
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586
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587
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588
00:41:09,216 --> 00:41:13,616
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589
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590
00:41:18,016 --> 00:41:23,316
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591
00:41:23,316 --> 00:41:27,836
trusting what's on your phone, you're seeing it for yourself on the device. It's simple, secure

592
00:41:27,836 --> 00:41:34,116
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593
00:41:34,116 --> 00:41:39,836
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594
00:41:39,836 --> 00:41:44,696
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595
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596
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597
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598
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599
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600
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601
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602
00:42:17,316 --> 00:42:25,156
anchorwatch.com. Okay, so let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin price. This is, when we hit 60 the

603
00:42:25,156 --> 00:42:28,776
first time, I thought that was the bottom. When we hit 60 this time, I think it's the bottom.

604
00:42:29,236 --> 00:42:30,336
Do you think this is the bottom?

605
00:42:31,156 --> 00:42:32,176
That's so tough, man.

606
00:42:34,016 --> 00:42:35,996
I'm not like a technical analysis,

607
00:42:36,176 --> 00:42:38,636
astrology for man, chart squiggler guy.

608
00:42:39,036 --> 00:42:41,636
But when you look at so many indicators

609
00:42:41,636 --> 00:42:43,176
that mark bottoms,

610
00:42:43,816 --> 00:42:44,996
you look at the deviation

611
00:42:44,996 --> 00:42:46,396
from the four-year moving average,

612
00:42:46,496 --> 00:42:48,616
which to me is like the most bullish indicator ever,

613
00:42:48,716 --> 00:42:50,996
how that line just continues to compound

614
00:42:50,996 --> 00:42:52,376
at over 20% per year.

615
00:42:53,636 --> 00:42:56,356
We're like in the single digit percentile

616
00:42:56,356 --> 00:42:58,276
with a deviation from the four-year moving average.

617
00:42:58,276 --> 00:43:05,456
Bitcoin priced in gold is like cheapest since 2010 level of percentile.

618
00:43:06,156 --> 00:43:09,416
I don't know if you're a power log guy, but the same thing there.

619
00:43:09,556 --> 00:43:15,076
Like we're seeing so many indicators, relative strength index, where we're just seeing the

620
00:43:15,076 --> 00:43:16,476
same levels as 2022.

621
00:43:16,476 --> 00:43:19,956
It's flashing November 2022 FTX levels.

622
00:43:20,616 --> 00:43:26,776
So I don't think a wick down to 50K or even 30K is impossible.

623
00:43:26,776 --> 00:43:49,056
Nothing is impossible. But I think a lot of people are freaking out because that's what happens when you are in like a single digit percentile of Bitcoin's oversold price. So, yeah, I think that given Bitcoin's volatility, a lot of people don't realize this, but Bitcoin's volatility has almost been cut in half since 2022, which is a wild stat.

624
00:43:49,056 --> 00:43:51,296
Like the volatility has been crushed for Bitcoin.

625
00:43:51,796 --> 00:43:56,956
And a lot of people don't realize that the moves necessary on a daily basis to get you

626
00:43:56,956 --> 00:44:03,416
below like a 40K Bitcoin number or like a FTX black swan after black swan type situation.

627
00:44:03,856 --> 00:44:17,455
It is so much more statistically unlikely given the amount of capital that has to move now Like so I think that you know who knows if we in exact bottom but it has to be close I don know if you agree with me but it seems like we right there

628
00:44:17,875 --> 00:44:20,795
Sentiment, I think is the worst it's ever been. So I don't know.

629
00:44:21,915 --> 00:44:26,895
And sentiment's always like, that's kind of the counter trade, right? When sentiment's the worst

630
00:44:26,895 --> 00:44:30,495
ever been, you're probably close to the bottom. And I don't go off anything but vibes at this

631
00:44:30,495 --> 00:44:35,595
point. Like I've been in Bitcoin long enough that I sometimes get feels and it feels like the bottom.

632
00:44:35,595 --> 00:44:42,095
I don't know if it is, but like I've certainly been any spare cash that I could possibly get my hands on has been going into Bitcoin recently.

633
00:44:42,355 --> 00:44:43,795
And that's not always the case.

634
00:44:43,875 --> 00:44:46,135
Like it just it feels like we must be close.

635
00:44:46,975 --> 00:44:51,455
Do you what do you think is going to sort of play out over the next sort of Bitcoin cycles?

636
00:44:51,555 --> 00:44:53,615
Do you think we have sort of diminishing returns?

637
00:44:53,615 --> 00:45:01,835
Like because, again, Saylor obviously talks about his like he has his CAGA targets and he thinks Bitcoin is going to continue to perform in the way it has in the past, at least somewhat.

638
00:45:03,155 --> 00:45:04,215
Do you think that's true?

639
00:45:05,055 --> 00:45:09,495
Yeah. As of now, I think when you look at the actual price data and the price performance of

640
00:45:09,495 --> 00:45:15,495
Bitcoin, it's tough to argue that diminishing returns aren't a thing. And like a lot of people

641
00:45:15,495 --> 00:45:20,775
do this super cringe thing where they'll draw a line from the 2021 top and they'll do a horizontal

642
00:45:20,775 --> 00:45:26,655
line to now and they'll say, look, it's been flat, dead capital. But what I like to look at is the

643
00:45:26,655 --> 00:45:32,455
year over year, four year moving average compound annual growth rate where you smooth out the

644
00:45:32,455 --> 00:45:39,035
volatility. And you are seeing that, you know, 10 years ago when it was going up 54% per year,

645
00:45:39,095 --> 00:45:44,875
year over year, now it's 30, then 29, then 28. I might be making some numbers up there,

646
00:45:44,935 --> 00:45:50,195
but that's essentially what it is. You are seeing a decrease in the CAGR of the four-year moving

647
00:45:50,195 --> 00:45:57,855
average. So the people that say diminishing returns like aren't a thing, well, we just saw

648
00:45:57,855 --> 00:46:02,295
a huge muted upside with the October 2025 bull run,

649
00:46:02,455 --> 00:46:04,935
where we were trading at the power law trend,

650
00:46:05,035 --> 00:46:07,515
which is way less than previous bull markets.

651
00:46:08,375 --> 00:46:10,335
So it's tough.

652
00:46:10,515 --> 00:46:11,955
Like, I think that we're going to see

653
00:46:11,955 --> 00:46:14,255
muted downside volatility as well.

654
00:46:14,335 --> 00:46:15,755
I think that's the most realistic scenario.

655
00:46:15,875 --> 00:46:18,075
I think the people calling for 30K Bitcoin

656
00:46:18,075 --> 00:46:20,975
like it's some certainty are smoking crack,

657
00:46:21,135 --> 00:46:21,635
to be frank.

658
00:46:21,695 --> 00:46:23,255
I think it's totally insane.

659
00:46:23,595 --> 00:46:25,735
When you actually go to AI and crunch in

660
00:46:25,735 --> 00:46:32,515
the statistical likelihood of moves like that with how big Bitcoin is now. But yeah, I think

661
00:46:32,515 --> 00:46:36,115
that overall, I'm bullish. The money printer has to print, man. And the Fed's in an interesting

662
00:46:36,115 --> 00:46:41,795
situation where they're being triple squeezed with oil inflation. And do you cut rates in this

663
00:46:41,795 --> 00:46:47,095
environment? Maybe we don't see that for another half year or a year. Overall, I'm bullish on

664
00:46:47,095 --> 00:46:51,855
Bitcoin because monetary fiscal repression is going to be what happens. There's no getting

665
00:46:51,855 --> 00:46:57,295
around that fiat has no bottom so long term i'm super bullish on bitcoin uh but i cannot

666
00:46:57,295 --> 00:47:03,235
be speaking with any degree of certainty right now that's for sure i do want to ask a question

667
00:47:03,235 --> 00:47:08,695
i did allude to earlier which is something that i can't get out of my head in that is sailor stuck

668
00:47:08,695 --> 00:47:13,575
in this trade whether he likes it or not and and this idea that he does have to just keep his foot

669
00:47:13,575 --> 00:47:18,395
on the accelerator keep coming up with new things and and maybe that means adding leverage maybe like

670
00:47:18,395 --> 00:47:23,615
whatever it is is he stuck and he has to just accelerate at this point uh no i don't think

671
00:47:23,615 --> 00:47:28,235
he's stuck at all because i think that everything they're doing is working um if you look at their

672
00:47:28,235 --> 00:47:34,235
kpis um i don't like bitcoin per share bitcoin yield but that's up considerably year to date

673
00:47:34,235 --> 00:47:38,835
they're raising money at a faster pace than they ever have before they're buying more bitcoin

674
00:47:38,835 --> 00:47:44,555
faster than they had before so what they're doing is working uh it's an amplified expression of

675
00:47:44,555 --> 00:47:49,955
Bitcoin, the amplification ratio is about 40% right now. So I think that when you saw that crazy

676
00:47:49,955 --> 00:47:56,575
blow off top where MSTR went to a 3.4 XM nav in November of 2024, when you have that, and then on

677
00:47:56,575 --> 00:48:02,875
top of like leverage on the way down with Jim Chano shorting the stock and a lot of people taking

678
00:48:02,875 --> 00:48:07,855
advantage of that frothy premium on the way down, I think the price performance is largely explainable.

679
00:48:08,535 --> 00:48:13,295
And then of course, man, getting kicked in the teeth with a 50% Bitcoin price correction,

680
00:48:13,295 --> 00:48:16,435
And that doesn't help an amplification story.

681
00:48:16,775 --> 00:48:18,315
So yeah, I don't think anything's broken.

682
00:48:18,415 --> 00:48:21,495
I think it's largely explainable by those market forces.

683
00:48:22,675 --> 00:48:26,055
And with the, like you said, it got to 3.4 XM NAV.

684
00:48:26,455 --> 00:48:27,615
Are those days gone?

685
00:48:27,775 --> 00:48:29,355
Like, do you think it can ever get back there again

686
00:48:29,355 --> 00:48:32,275
as like a MSDR shareholder yourself?

687
00:48:32,435 --> 00:48:35,075
Like, do you think anything over two now

688
00:48:35,075 --> 00:48:36,395
is kind of out of the question?

689
00:48:36,675 --> 00:48:37,655
That's a good question.

690
00:48:38,615 --> 00:48:40,895
It's really hard for me to think of that happening again.

691
00:48:40,915 --> 00:48:41,695
I'll be honest with you.

692
00:48:41,695 --> 00:48:44,675
I see this critique a lot.

693
00:48:44,775 --> 00:48:47,995
You'll see there's some MSTR maxis out there that are losing their mind.

694
00:48:48,075 --> 00:48:48,755
I'll be honest with you.

695
00:48:48,975 --> 00:48:50,575
I'm like the biggest strategy bull,

696
00:48:50,935 --> 00:48:53,295
but I think it's going to be the most valuable company in the world.

697
00:48:53,395 --> 00:48:56,335
I'm like, Bitcoin's going to $3 million a coin.

698
00:48:56,455 --> 00:48:57,895
They're going to have trillions of dollars of assets.

699
00:48:58,735 --> 00:49:00,855
That said, some people are losing their minds.

700
00:49:00,935 --> 00:49:04,675
They will say, Sailor and Fong, stop selling MSTR.

701
00:49:04,955 --> 00:49:06,955
Wait for the MNAB to go to a 2.5.

702
00:49:06,955 --> 00:49:14,555
And I'm like, you think that the company, like the market's going to give them $80 billion in premium just because?

703
00:49:14,775 --> 00:49:16,475
Like, they're too big now, man.

704
00:49:16,575 --> 00:49:22,415
Like, I think that me and you probably are in agreement there where like a 3.4XM nav, you got to think of when that happened.

705
00:49:22,695 --> 00:49:27,995
That was when there weren't so many Bitcoin derivatives in the market that you could access with a brokerage account.

706
00:49:28,155 --> 00:49:32,855
That was when Trump just won the election where we were talking about a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

707
00:49:32,855 --> 00:49:40,055
you saw Bitcoin move from, I don't remember exactly, 55K in September to 90K. That was

708
00:49:40,055 --> 00:49:44,855
like lightning in a bottle, everything going right to hit 3.4 at that time. And that's why

709
00:49:44,855 --> 00:49:49,735
Saylor was selling stock hand over fist, because you don't squander that opportunity. Like, go get

710
00:49:49,735 --> 00:49:55,735
the Bitcoin when the stock is that expensive. So I think MNAP will always oscillate just because

711
00:49:55,735 --> 00:50:00,695
the price is in the numerator, the price of the company, and price is a reflection of market

712
00:50:00,695 --> 00:50:06,715
sentiment. So I don't think that like we go to one and stay there forever. I think that's insane.

713
00:50:06,715 --> 00:50:12,635
But also I don't think like we just go back to a 3.4 either. It's tough because we're thinking

714
00:50:12,635 --> 00:50:17,555
of these like long-term hypotheticals. Could MSTR one day command a huge premium because

715
00:50:17,555 --> 00:50:23,075
they own 6 million Bitcoin and they can issue more credit than everybody and Bitcoin is like

716
00:50:23,075 --> 00:50:27,475
the new foundation monetary base? That's an interesting question, but it's all like hypothetical.

717
00:50:27,475 --> 00:50:31,655
At least in the next five years, I would be shocked if we ever saw...

718
00:50:31,693 --> 00:50:37,913
an MNAV explosion like that again. Yeah, me too. Okay. I want to get back into sentiment because

719
00:50:37,913 --> 00:50:44,333
you mentioned before, like this feels FTX level sentiment. And I totally agree, if not even worse.

720
00:50:44,573 --> 00:50:48,833
And I've said this before on the podcast, but I think it's true in that when FTX blew up,

721
00:50:49,433 --> 00:50:53,473
if you were a Bitcoin or in Bitcoin land, you could look over there and be like huge fraud,

722
00:50:53,933 --> 00:50:57,673
scams, like, of course, the market's going to dump. Makes sense. Nothing's changed for Bitcoin.

723
00:50:57,673 --> 00:51:04,013
therefore like sentiment surely sure was bad because the price was way down but everyone knew

724
00:51:04,013 --> 00:51:09,893
why and then whereas this time like price is down a lot we didn't really get the the sort of highs

725
00:51:09,893 --> 00:51:15,613
that we expected last cycle and there's nothing to point to directly and be like that's why and i

726
00:51:15,613 --> 00:51:20,893
feel like that's adding to the sort of negative sentiment within bitcoin world and obviously

727
00:51:20,893 --> 00:51:25,193
sailor is now bearing the brunt of that in a lot of ways because people are just mad about something

728
00:51:25,193 --> 00:51:26,653
and trying to find someone to blame it on.

729
00:51:28,733 --> 00:51:30,253
Is that a bullish sign though,

730
00:51:30,353 --> 00:51:31,593
that we are at these levels

731
00:51:31,593 --> 00:51:34,913
and there isn't some like out and out fraud blow up

732
00:51:34,913 --> 00:51:36,673
that you can point out and be like, this is why.

733
00:51:37,273 --> 00:51:38,953
Yeah, I agree with you a hundred percent.

734
00:51:39,113 --> 00:51:42,513
I think that the market is trying to find a villain right now.

735
00:51:42,673 --> 00:51:44,513
And Sailor is that guy.

736
00:51:44,633 --> 00:51:46,253
Like he'll be the hero in the bull markets

737
00:51:46,253 --> 00:51:47,853
and then in the bear markets,

738
00:51:48,093 --> 00:51:49,933
he'll be villainized by a lot of the community.

739
00:51:50,593 --> 00:51:52,453
I think that it is a buy signal.

740
00:51:52,453 --> 00:51:56,573
I think that, and it's not even a question of opinion almost.

741
00:51:56,773 --> 00:51:58,993
It's almost like a mathematical reality.

742
00:51:59,353 --> 00:52:06,793
Just going back to what we talked about, people often forget that your statistical likelihood

743
00:52:06,793 --> 00:52:12,273
of higher returns skyrockets when you buy at this level of oversold versus these indicators.

744
00:52:12,953 --> 00:52:14,413
And nobody has a crystal ball.

745
00:52:14,473 --> 00:52:15,373
You can't predict the future.

746
00:52:15,573 --> 00:52:21,373
But it's so fun to load up Bitcoin's entire price data for every single day since January

747
00:52:21,373 --> 00:52:28,673
3rd, 2009, or at least the exchange data in July 2010. And just ask it, what are the forward six

748
00:52:28,673 --> 00:52:33,433
month, 12 month, 18 month, 24 month returns of Bitcoin whenever we've been at this level of

749
00:52:33,433 --> 00:52:38,213
oversold? And you could do it for the fear and greed index if you wanted to. And all of the

750
00:52:38,213 --> 00:52:43,753
numbers throughout all of history are triple digit returns where sometimes I'm seeing them thinking,

751
00:52:44,093 --> 00:52:49,813
man, I want to take out a second mortgage to buy Bitcoin right now because seriously,

752
00:52:49,813 --> 00:52:54,753
that's what it is. Your statistical likelihood of higher returns skyrockets when you buy one

753
00:52:54,753 --> 00:52:59,833
were this oversold. And the sentiment is an indicator. It is a buy signal. It literally just

754
00:52:59,833 --> 00:53:08,233
is. The people who bought MSTR call options in 2022 and made $10 million, they literally bought

755
00:53:08,233 --> 00:53:13,913
the most leveraged possible Bitcoin at the worst ever sentiment in history, and they made out like

756
00:53:13,913 --> 00:53:20,533
bandits. So like, are we 2022 levels of oversold? It's pretty close. But yeah, I think I agree with

757
00:53:20,533 --> 00:53:26,033
you, man. Like the negative sentiment is it's a buy signal for me. I'm like, I've never been more

758
00:53:26,033 --> 00:53:31,413
bullish because I understand the mathematical reality of to make money and to go up NGU,

759
00:53:31,653 --> 00:53:35,193
you need to be buying right now. A hundred percent. And it's one of those funny things

760
00:53:35,193 --> 00:53:42,413
in bear markets. Like I kind of like perversely enjoy when price is crashing. It's always exciting.

761
00:53:42,413 --> 00:53:43,853
There's always stuff to talk about.

762
00:53:43,853 --> 00:53:53,878
I don like the just dragging out Like this bit boring and I just can wait for the tide to turn again I ready for us to go up again The time pain is awful Yeah Yeah I couldn agree more

763
00:53:54,638 --> 00:53:56,278
But I'm, it's weird.

764
00:53:56,398 --> 00:53:57,258
I'm sort of,

765
00:53:57,758 --> 00:53:59,958
I have this turbo bullishness around Bitcoin

766
00:53:59,958 --> 00:54:01,538
and if I was to trade,

767
00:54:01,578 --> 00:54:02,398
it would get me in big trouble.

768
00:54:02,518 --> 00:54:03,838
It's like the big reason I don't trade,

769
00:54:03,938 --> 00:54:05,698
but I can't see Bitcoin

770
00:54:05,698 --> 00:54:06,858
staying at these levels for long.

771
00:54:06,978 --> 00:54:07,958
I hope not anyway.

772
00:54:08,698 --> 00:54:10,458
Do you follow what's going on

773
00:54:10,458 --> 00:54:11,818
like on macro side

774
00:54:11,818 --> 00:54:12,918
with everything that's happened

775
00:54:12,918 --> 00:54:13,598
in the Fed recently?

776
00:54:14,198 --> 00:54:42,118
Yeah, I do to a degree. I don't have a total technical understanding like a lot of these macro experts do, but like I do a lot of analysis on my own channel and then on the Swan channel as well. I have a two day a week show over there where I talk about this a decent amount. But yeah, following the macro side a little bit, I kind of alluded to it earlier, but like the Fed's being triple squeezed right now, man. Like it seems like, like how do you explain away potential monetary easing or rate cutting?

777
00:54:42,918 --> 00:54:45,578
That seems like the battle they've got right now.

778
00:54:45,738 --> 00:54:45,998
Yeah.

779
00:54:46,098 --> 00:54:47,898
Because when you talk about headwinds in Bitcoin,

780
00:54:48,018 --> 00:54:52,018
we don't really have one that's necessarily intrinsic to Bitcoin this time.

781
00:54:52,438 --> 00:54:54,198
But the macro side is the thing.

782
00:54:54,598 --> 00:54:56,218
And they seem totally trapped.

783
00:54:57,338 --> 00:54:58,358
Inflation's high and they want it.

784
00:54:58,498 --> 00:55:00,898
Jobs are pretty good, but they need to cut rates.

785
00:55:01,058 --> 00:55:02,158
And how do they do it?

786
00:55:02,598 --> 00:55:03,838
But this is very interesting.

787
00:55:03,998 --> 00:55:06,478
If people have been paying attention to what Warsh has said

788
00:55:06,478 --> 00:55:08,598
leading up to his appointment and recently,

789
00:55:08,598 --> 00:55:15,658
he's mentioning things like we need to recalculate how inflation is calculated and then with his last

790
00:55:15,658 --> 00:55:20,738
statement after this latest fed meeting warsh is saying that like we're going to be giving less

791
00:55:20,738 --> 00:55:27,278
future guidance like less commentary essentially so that's very interesting like what does that

792
00:55:27,278 --> 00:55:33,638
tell you to me it's almost like you need to play your cards closer uh with any like obvious moves

793
00:55:33,638 --> 00:55:38,478
you're going to be making i'm not quite on the level of like the conspiracy tinfoil hat like

794
00:55:38,478 --> 00:55:43,538
he's Trump's puppet and he's going to do the bidding of cutting rates. But those two things

795
00:55:43,538 --> 00:55:48,558
are very interesting. I think like they're already being open about talking about how you recalculate

796
00:55:48,558 --> 00:55:53,098
it. And we've seen this game happen time and time again. The government lies to us about CPI.

797
00:55:53,298 --> 00:56:02,358
They literally replace ribeye steak with 7327 ground beef. They lie to us and they manipulate

798
00:56:02,358 --> 00:56:07,998
the basket. Anybody who knows shadow stats.com, the true government inflation. I know I'm preaching

799
00:56:07,998 --> 00:56:12,558
to the choir here, but like we're seeing the same language happening. They continue to change the

800
00:56:12,558 --> 00:56:19,858
lingo. And this is very interesting. I saw this recently. There was a meta analysis of Bitcoin

801
00:56:19,858 --> 00:56:27,638
price action relating to not only the Fed's actual actions in terms of rate cutting, but the market

802
00:56:27,638 --> 00:56:33,658
perception in terms of how the media was reporting about it. And the finding was that Bitcoin is the

803
00:56:33,658 --> 00:56:40,758
most reactionary asset by far to even the perception of rates being cut or rates being

804
00:56:40,758 --> 00:56:47,718
hiked. So like a 25 study meta analysis of that, to me, that's a big explainer of the Bitcoin price

805
00:56:47,718 --> 00:56:53,778
action. When you immediately saw this war happen and the poly market, betting markets, price in

806
00:56:53,778 --> 00:56:59,518
rate hikes for 2026, to me, that's like a large explainer. If you look at that meta analysis,

807
00:56:59,518 --> 00:57:00,198
That was interesting.

808
00:57:01,398 --> 00:57:17,004
I 100 agree And the interesting thing is it seems like Walsh is trying to be somewhat covert in what he trying to do like he said no forward guidance um but it so obvious like it so overt like he going to redefine what inflation is he he come out with like a

809
00:57:17,004 --> 00:57:21,824
new cpi adjusted number it'll it'll give us a lower inflation print and i'm sure he'll go to

810
00:57:21,824 --> 00:57:26,604
cut rates or do like monetary easing in some way that's what these central banking snakes do

811
00:57:26,604 --> 00:57:33,704
this is what these snakes do these people manipulate the fiat money supply uh like this is

812
00:57:33,704 --> 00:57:39,224
the case that it's been for over 100 years like this should be so obvious to everybody by now

813
00:57:39,224 --> 00:57:44,984
and i know i'm preaching the choir we're bitcoiners but it's literally the same playbook like change

814
00:57:44,984 --> 00:57:51,444
the name of this uh you know we'll change the inflation statistic it's it's wild man it's it's

815
00:57:51,444 --> 00:57:55,944
literally the uh another page out of their playbook call it something else and then

816
00:57:55,944 --> 00:58:02,284
repress the society monetarily. It's a sad state of affairs. Dude, did you know that the United

817
00:58:02,284 --> 00:58:08,384
States debt is on pace to be over $50 trillion by the time Trump leaves office? It's insane.

818
00:58:08,564 --> 00:58:13,464
It's just numbers that I can't even understand. I don't know what $50 trillion is. I just know

819
00:58:13,464 --> 00:58:18,684
it's absolute insanity. Yeah. It's just crazy. Wait, Elon just became a trillionaire. That's

820
00:58:18,684 --> 00:58:24,844
$1,000 billion and that 50 times over. It boggles the mind. It's just ridiculous.

821
00:58:25,944 --> 00:58:33,524
It's crazy. And honestly, Bitcoin's at $64,000 right now. With all this happening,

822
00:58:33,924 --> 00:58:37,504
there is literally... I don't understand why more people don't know this is the best place

823
00:58:37,504 --> 00:58:42,964
to put your money and move into a Bitcoin world. It's crazy to me. And the other interesting thing

824
00:58:42,964 --> 00:58:50,284
that I think Walsh has to battle with is he's got rid of forward guidance. And like you say,

825
00:58:50,424 --> 00:58:54,844
markets move on what they say, not even what they do. And so without the forward guidance,

826
00:58:54,844 --> 00:59:01,444
Do markets just get even more confused as everyone tries to read the leaves and they don't really have anything to go off apart from vibes?

827
00:59:01,564 --> 00:59:02,604
Like everything's vibes.

828
00:59:03,024 --> 00:59:03,184
Yeah.

829
00:59:03,324 --> 00:59:08,544
I was going to ask you, like, do you feel like that this has been the most uncertain market in history?

830
00:59:08,704 --> 00:59:10,764
Like versus when you first started investing?

831
00:59:11,244 --> 00:59:14,844
To me, I can't imagine being in anything else but Bitcoin.

832
00:59:14,844 --> 00:59:23,984
like literally 100% of my family's future and my the success of my bloodline it is 100% reliant on

833
00:59:23,984 --> 00:59:31,724
the success of the bitcoin network uh because i look at equity multiples and i can't like square

834
00:59:31,724 --> 00:59:36,744
that in my head on how to how these things are investable and what's funny even before i was

835
00:59:36,744 --> 00:59:42,264
totally orange pilled my orange pilling journey has been quite long but uh i have always thought

836
00:59:42,264 --> 00:59:46,544
that about equities. And I've always been able to perceive certain valuations being ridiculous.

837
00:59:47,124 --> 00:59:55,204
And I continue to see that get more crazy as my life goes on and I get older. And it just,

838
00:59:55,204 --> 01:00:01,964
the uncertainty is wild. We have people debating on whether or not MSTR should trade at a 10%

839
01:00:01,964 --> 01:00:07,124
premium to their Bitcoin holdings versus DoorDash stock trading at a 70X earnings.

840
01:00:07,124 --> 01:00:12,564
It's like, to me, I'm like, guys, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle here.

841
01:00:12,564 --> 01:00:15,304
So to me, that's why I love Bitcoin.

842
01:00:15,304 --> 01:00:30,229
And I actually do like the treasury companies because in terms of like a risk reward calculus it so much easier of a tell to me Like do I buy Costco at a 60 PE Is that overvalued or undervalued

843
01:00:30,649 --> 01:00:32,509
Will Costco exist in 2100

844
01:00:32,509 --> 01:00:33,909
when robots have replaced humanity?

845
01:00:34,629 --> 01:00:36,569
There's never been more uncertainty,

846
01:00:36,749 --> 01:00:38,909
yet equity multiples are at the highest

847
01:00:38,909 --> 01:00:39,649
they've ever been.

848
01:00:40,269 --> 01:00:43,949
I believe that the composite price to earnings

849
01:00:43,949 --> 01:00:46,209
multiple for the S&P 500 is a 29.

850
01:00:47,009 --> 01:00:48,769
Like, I don't, I think that's crazy.

851
01:00:48,769 --> 01:00:50,669
I would rather just buy Bitcoin.

852
01:00:51,609 --> 01:00:54,509
JBB, just buy Bitcoin, stack sats and call it good.

853
01:00:56,229 --> 01:00:57,109
That's absolutely nuts.

854
01:00:57,189 --> 01:00:59,809
I didn't realize that across the S&P was 29 times.

855
01:00:59,869 --> 01:01:00,549
That's insane.

856
01:01:02,009 --> 01:01:03,249
And people might think that's silly

857
01:01:03,249 --> 01:01:05,589
because you said before that Bitcoin trades

858
01:01:05,589 --> 01:01:07,589
off what the Fed says more than almost anything.

859
01:01:08,149 --> 01:01:10,429
So sure, it could have a really negative effect,

860
01:01:10,529 --> 01:01:11,989
but we're just playing a different game.

861
01:01:12,089 --> 01:01:13,189
This is a much longer term.

862
01:01:13,349 --> 01:01:14,729
I'll take the short-term volatility

863
01:01:14,729 --> 01:01:15,929
to own Bitcoin for the long term.

864
01:01:16,089 --> 01:01:17,389
That's an easy bet for me.

865
01:01:17,389 --> 01:01:28,409
I can't possibly imagine having my wealth stored in anything else but Bitcoin and then like with some risk capital buying like an equity that's reliant on Bitcoin.

866
01:01:28,609 --> 01:01:39,569
Like I cannot even fathom, honestly, like buying the S&P 500 to me, like I want to like, I don't want to say vomit, but I get like nauseated about this.

867
01:01:39,569 --> 01:01:41,569
It's just like it feels gross.

868
01:01:41,569 --> 01:01:48,589
gross. Like to me, it's like this latest stock market crazy rush. It's like the last big

869
01:01:48,589 --> 01:01:56,829
boomer hurrah where we've seen real estate and equities just at the mercy of the money printer

870
01:01:56,829 --> 01:02:03,089
getting inflated. And we have all of this old boomer capital. I don't say boomer disrespectfully

871
01:02:03,089 --> 01:02:07,749
for anybody older listening to this, but like, that's what it is. It's people that are unfamiliar

872
01:02:07,749 --> 01:02:14,289
with Bitcoin and then they store their money and these things that are absorbing the money

873
01:02:14,289 --> 01:02:19,329
printer essentially. And it's a really sad state of affairs. And you know, as well as I do, like,

874
01:02:19,969 --> 01:02:23,849
you know, the capital is going to hunt scarcity at the end of the day. So I can't buy anything

875
01:02:23,849 --> 01:02:30,889
but Bitcoin. Let's go. Adam, this has been awesome. The takeaway is you think strategy

876
01:02:30,889 --> 01:02:35,689
is going to be fine. Buying Bitcoin is always the way. I'm excited for the next few years,

877
01:02:35,689 --> 01:02:39,769
man i think i think we're gonna have good times are coming back yeah i think so i think there's

878
01:02:39,769 --> 01:02:45,389
a lot of uh this bitcoin civil war is super interesting um people throw in shade at each

879
01:02:45,389 --> 01:02:49,469
there's multiple civil wars there are yeah the core and knots thing that's for sure we didn't

880
01:02:49,469 --> 01:02:55,769
even talk about that so maybe another episode or something but uh yeah like um crazy stuff man it

881
01:02:55,769 --> 01:02:59,109
was a great talking to you uh i'm bullish on bitcoin sounds like you are too and at the end

882
01:02:59,109 --> 01:03:05,549
of the day that's how we win and adam where do people go to find more of your work yeah i do a

883
01:03:05,549 --> 01:03:11,769
daily YouTube show at Adam Livingston, BTC. And then I have an X account where I post analysis

884
01:03:11,769 --> 01:03:17,569
on Bitcoin and a lot of MSTR stuff as well at Adam B. Live. So those are my two platforms.

885
01:03:18,909 --> 01:03:21,869
Let's go. All right. Thank you so much, Adam. We'll have to do this again. That was awesome.

886
01:03:22,149 --> 01:03:24,369
Thanks, Danny. I appreciate your time, man. Have a good one.

887
01:03:35,549 --> 01:04:05,529
Thank you.