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People come to understand Bitcoin in a myriad of different ways.

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A lot of people have to touch the hot stove.

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Bitcoin treasury companies are not, you know, in general, the equivalent of alt-season and altcoins.

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But there's a very similar lesson that I think is going to have to be learned,

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which is that it's a great way to get less Bitcoin.

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If all else is equal to you, you know, it's like,

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oh, well, you can either go buy Bitcoin at this company X, Y, or Z, or buy the ETF.

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You are incentivized to get them to also buy your stock.

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And that's where I see the greatest misalignment because it's predicated on constantly raising more and more capital and most of which should be people just buying Bitcoin directly.

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The sentiment has never been worse for my 10 years around Bitcoin.

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The fundamentals of Bitcoin have never been better.

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And those two things are true at the same time.

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And I think that there's also, in my view, there also never was an adoption wave since 2021.

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And the next one will be particularly large because of that.

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I mean, we've started now.

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I was just having a chat, but we may as well just make this the show.

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Like the adoption wave, like new people come into Bitcoin when Bitcoin is ripping.

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Like they come in in the euphoria phase of Bitcoin price.

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Like that happens every single cycle.

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And I think because we didn't have that, we never got the kind of broader awareness.

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Like you didn't see it like posted in all the sort of major news articles and things like that.

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And I just think we never got that influx of retail because of AI, because everyone was going to AI.

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And if people were going to Bitcoin, they were probably going to the treasury companies.

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Yeah.

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I think that's, I mean, just from my own vantage point of being at meetups, being at conferences,

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of course, people are trickling in here and there in terms of new people, but there was

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not a decided wave like there was in 2017 or 2020, 2021.

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And why that is, I don't know if it was just that the price increase was a function of

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the ETF and a lot of low conviction, small, you know, institutional flows rather than

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an unlock of a wave of new people actually figuring out that there was signal on Bitcoin.

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And then with the, you know, kind of everything happening in AI, sucking both capital out as

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well as mindshare, which is like, you know, eventually they're going to print a shit ton

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of money and people are going to figure out that the Bitcoin is right.

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and the Bitcoiners will figure out that, you know,

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that was the North Star and get back to the basics.

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Yeah, I don't think retail's gone forever.

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But on the treasury company stuff,

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you've been fighting a lot online.

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I've loved to see it, to be honest.

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Do you think the treasury companies

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have been a net good for Bitcoin?

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Danny, everything's good for Bitcoin, okay?

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Is it though?

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Like in the sense that I think that

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Bitcoin has to humble everybody.

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And that

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people come to understand Bitcoin

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in a myriad of different ways.

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A lot of people have to touch the hot stove.

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Bitcoin treasury companies are not

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in general the equivalent of

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alt-season and altcoins.

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But there's a very similar lesson that I think

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is going to have to be learned, which is that

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it's a great way to get less Bitcoin.

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you know and like maybe a few people were the you know minority or exception and that created

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you know this idea that the market as a whole could and that the market as a whole learns that

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they can't and that markets might be efficient over short periods of time but as a function of

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time it becomes more efficient and people learn from their past mistakes and that the people that

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learned that mistake that they actually got less Bitcoin by buying a Bitcoin treasury company at a

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large premium to the actual Bitcoin it held was why they ultimately got less Bitcoin. And they

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will come to understand it and not make the same mistake twice. And so I don't think that it's

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brought in this large amount of net new adoption that a lot of other people seem to think it has.

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So I think it's been a lot more neutral to negative potentially on price.

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But it is what it is and the market has to process information.

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And I think the market is in part of what might get us out of this cycle is a bunch of people actually finding the real signal and rotating out of the treasury companies and buying Bitcoin.

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Yeah.

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I want to know what it is that you don't like about them.

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Because if you look at, say, strategy, obviously easiest one, biggest one, like their business model at first, I actually really liked as they were a cash flow positive company and they were moving their cash reserves on the balance sheet into Bitcoin.

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Makes total sense.

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What I started to like, it just didn't vibe with me quite right when they started doing the preferreds and they did the convertible notes.

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And it was becoming like a leverage debt play trying to get people to buy their common equity, which was then going to get diluted so they could buy more Bitcoin.

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I like that's where the whole thing got too complex for me and I just kind of fell out of I just didn't I didn't I don't really get it anymore.

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It's just this complex financial engineering thing.

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Yeah.

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So from my side, one, they did the converts first and actually made more sense to me when they were doing the converts because they were tapping cap, you know, money that capital that wouldn't otherwise have come into Bitcoin.

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now i you know truth be told like i didn't really have a an issue when they started doing the

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prefers for me it was really more when i started seeing things being said that i viewed as

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confusing the nature of bitcoin as a means to get people to buy stock

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rather than bitcoin so this is like digital credit narrative yeah i mean truth be told it wasn't it

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wasn't really even that um it was you know we turned bitcoin into money which i think just by

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its very nature begs the question of well if you turn bitcoin into money then what is bitcoin

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bitcoin is this very difficult thing to understand as money because it doesn't you know behave like

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the money that people are used to.

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And then when you start deviating away, say, oh, it's not even money, it's capital.

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It's like, well, that stands to confuse far more people than it is.

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It's like, hey, you think that money is fiat and that it can be easily printed and that

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it's stable in the short term but collapses in the long term.

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This is a different kind of money.

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It's volatile, but it holds its value because there's a fixed supply.

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And as more people opt into that, it will become less volatile over time and it will evolve from a nascent and early store of value that's volatile into a form of commerce that's being used every day for transactions.

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And so that was probably the first one.

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then there was a post from a guy who I know and like from strive talking about how

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digital credit is the most important inflection point in Bitcoin.

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And that I,

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I looked at and I said,

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so you're telling me that,

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you know,

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in my own view estimation,

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no more than 1% of people understand Bitcoin.

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But the thing that's going to make sense to them is,

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a professional preferred equity that is, quote, backed by Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin doesn't have any yield, but you're going to pay 13% to them.

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And that's going to be this transformational thing for Bitcoin.

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And what he said in this post or this video was that Bitcoin is too volatile for 99% of people.

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And again, that's where I started to observe this and say,

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okay now you're actually saying things that confuse people about the nature of bitcoin

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when bitcoin is already hard to understand is is this an is this a net net benefit you know like

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what what what is going on and when i started to call out what i perceived to be misleading

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marketing around these products people doubled down and um and then when i dug into it i started

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to see what in my view is a really broken incentive structure, which not only are they

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complex financial structures, but at a higher level, their whole strategy is to get people

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to not buy Bitcoin, but to buy their stock instead.

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And for one end of the bookend, which is the people investing in the common equity with

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The idea of getting more Bitcoin, and I have logical reasons to describe why you won't get more Bitcoin that way.

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The companies will.

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But you as an individual, if you were saving in Bitcoin, you'd be better off just saving in Bitcoin.

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And then on the other book, the people that they're shepherding or trying to shepherd into these preferred equity instruments that are fixed dollar equity instruments that are ultimately going to be left holding the bag as fiat loses its value and eventually hyperinflates.

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That the last person to hold those is the one holding the bag.

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And that those people would be better off just buying a smaller amount of Bitcoin.

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If Bitcoin is too volatile to you, you are the volatility.

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The market is the volatility.

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People pricing Bitcoin for the first time are the volatility.

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And Bitcoin doesn't have a yield.

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So the better thing for those people would be simply buying a smaller percentage of Bitcoin.

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And then learning and reading a book, rabbit holing, spending the 100 hours to understand how to keep your money.

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But there's actually a disincentive.

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And the disincentive also extends to the shareholders.

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That people who have bought the stocks have a direct incentive to get people not to buy Bitcoin, but to buy their stocks.

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And I'm not saying that everybody operates or effectuates that incentive, but the incentive exists.

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And the same incentive does not exist with the ETF because the ETF has managed to net asset value.

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So you could hold 90% Bitcoin in cold storage, but you decided to buy the Bitcoin treasury stock.

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You suddenly need people to buy your stock and not Bitcoin to validate your thesis around that 10%, which is meaningful, right?

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Because if all else is equal to you, it's like, oh, well, you can either go buy Bitcoin at company X, Y, or Z or buy the ETF.

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You are incentivized to get them to also buy your stock.

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And that's where I see the greatest misalignment because it's predicated on, you know, constantly raising more and more capital and most of which should be people just buying Bitcoin directly.

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The thing that keeps me up at night with Bitcoin cold storage isn't Bitcoin failing, it's my setup failing.

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coverage visit anchorwatch.com today that's anchorwatch.com if you hold bitcoin long enough

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there's going to come a time when you need some dollars.

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It might be a tax bill, a business expense,

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life getting in the way,

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but whatever it is, it might come at a time

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when you don't want to sell your Bitcoin.

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That's where Ledin comes in.

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Ledin lets you borrow against your Bitcoin instead

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with tiered rates that go as low as 9.25%.

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So you don't have to sell your stack if you don't want to.

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Ledin have operated through every market cycle since 2018

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and have originated over $11 billion in loans.

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But the important part for me

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is the way Ledin handles these loans.

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Your collateral is held in custody

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and never lent out to generate interest.

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and leaden more than just loans tether gold is now live alongside your bitcoin with instant trading across 10 pairs and later this year you be able to borrow against gold in the same way that you do with Bitcoin Ledin really is an awesome company I used them multiple times The

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hours. If you want to check out Ledin, go to ledn.io and use the code WBD for 0.25% off your

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first loan. That's leaden.io and use the code WBD. If you own a Bitcoin ETF, especially if it's GBTC,

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you need to listen up. Spot Bitcoin ETFs provide price exposure to Bitcoin, not direct ownership.

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You can't withdraw it, you can't self-custody it, and they charge you a management fee every year to

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RBX is a structured in-kind exchange that converts your Spot Bitcoin ETF shares into real on-chain

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Bitcoin. It does that without selling on the open market and is designed to support a tax

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efficient outcome. So for example, if you hold GBTC, you're paying 1.5% a year in management fees

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for Bitcoin price exposure. But by swapping GBTC for real Bitcoin with RBX, you can drop that figure

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as low as 0% by just holding it in self-custody. This is designed in a way that maintains your cost

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basis and in a manner that supports the deferral of capital gains tax. So if you own a Bitcoin ETF,

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especially if it's GBTC,

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you need to talk to Swan Private about RBX today.

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Head over to swan.com forward slash WBD

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and book in a call with one of their team.

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That's swan.com forward slash WBD.

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That makes sense.

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So that's like the misaligned incentive for the shareholder.

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But for the companies, what's the misaligned incentive?

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Is it that they have to sort of market this

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as Bitcoin being too volatile or too hard to self-custody,

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let us do it instead of actually just buying Bitcoin yourself?

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I think the misaligned incentive is...

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that their incentive with their future shareholders is to get them to not buy Bitcoin, but instead to buy their stock.

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And selling their stock at a premium to the underlying value of Bitcoin, which in my view,

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and this has been a lot more controversial than it should be because I'm mostly talking to people that own the stock.

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But if you talk to a disinterested third party and ask them whether Bitcoin in a stock wrapper with leverage should trade at a premium to Bitcoin that's not leveraged, that's not in the stock wrapper, that doesn't have the implications of corporate taxes, double taxation,

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they would say that the underlying asset should trade at a premium and the stock should trade at

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a discount just from a pure risk perspective but the companies have an incentive which is where

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there's misalignment of selling that premium as a trading multiple and then they make analogies

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compared to things but they're really harvesting the premium to their benefit to the detriment of

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the person that's buying the stock.

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How were they doing that?

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Is that by diluting shareholders

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when it's above 1XM NAV to buy more Bitcoin?

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Right, but also think about the person

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who's buying the stock,

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the person who's providing that money.

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They're paying, you know,

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50% premium in the context of Strive.

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Today, the strategy premium is much smaller,

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but it was very large in 2024 and 2025.

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Those people were,

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what they were functionally doing

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was getting less Bitcoin

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than the Bitcoin equivalent

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that they were buying into because of the premium.

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And again, the incentive of the company is to do that

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where it's misaligned is the person who's actually buying it,

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in my opinion.

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If your whole strategy wasn't predicated

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on getting new capital in the door,

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new equity capital in the door,

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and you were producing Bitcoin-denominated returns

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not as a function of harvesting a premium that shouldn't exist,

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and again, because that premium exists,

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They're able to do it, but then they have to tell a story about how they're going.

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They tell a story about how they're going to be able to get more Bitcoin by raising these preferreds.

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The preferreds, in my opinion, are bad instruments for the people buying the preferreds.

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But the whole idea of making more Bitcoin is predicated on their ability to get people piled in to the preferreds.

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So it's kind of two ends of the barbell.

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and in both cases I think people would just be better off buying Bitcoin and that same

225
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misalignment wouldn't exist if it wasn't predicated on getting new equity in the door in my view.

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Why do you think that these companies aren't going to be able to sustain above 1x MNAV?

227
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Because for people buying the shares in these companies presumably they're betting that the

228
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companies can continue to increase their Bitcoin per share. Is that right?

229
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No, that's how it's been sold. I think from a risk perspective, that is fundamentally illogical. Why is that?

230
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Well, because first you have to start from this idea that there is more risk associated with the stock companies.

231
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Yes, there's potentially more upside dependent on whether or not you price the risk appropriately.

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But at a, say, one MNAV or whatever, which effectively means, and again, the way that I look at it is common equity to the net asset value attributable to common in the Bitcoin equivalent.

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If that was at one-to-one, then anything more than that would say that Bitcoin is riskier, the underlying asset is riskier than owning the stock.

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In which case, if you own the stock, you don't own Bitcoin.

235
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You own a stock.

236
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It's in somebody else's control.

237
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They have an expense load.

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They have execution risk.

239
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Are they going to be able to get the incremental leverage?

240
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Is something going to go wrong?

241
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In the context of GameStop, Citadel basically just said, or Robinhood said, you can't buy the stock.

242
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Censorship.

243
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A lot of censorship risk.

244
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That going from one to greater than one is an expression that the stock is less risky than Bitcoin.

245
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At a discount, it would signal that Bitcoin is less risky than the stock, which it is.

246
00:19:45,088 --> 00:19:56,708
Then if the stock was trading at a discount, there's an opportunity for that stock on a Bitcoin per share basis to both outperform Bitcoin and trend to one.

247
00:19:59,828 --> 00:20:04,568
It's always going to be riskier because there's more counterparty risk, there's more execution risk.

248
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But as those liabilities do trend to zero, it would then trend toward one.

249
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And it's a backward risk view that they basically sold on like it's a price to book value like a bank might be valued.

250
00:20:15,868 --> 00:20:33,428
But the difference in this context is you can actually own the underlying exact asset with less risk, but you are paying a premium to take more risk and not own the underlying asset that all of your return or quote outperformance would be predicated on.

251
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Why do you think that people don't understand this? Because is it as simple as people think that basically trying to take leverage? I think leverage is a way to become an OG.

252
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They think that leverage plus number go up means more Bitcoin. And the big thing that is missed is depending on what price you bought in at. And what is going to happen, what has happened to this point is like, you know, as it's traded at a premium, the company sells stock to buy Bitcoin or to hold cash, that they basically harvest that premium.

253
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Well, the market figures this out as a function of time that they were the premium and that as their understanding of Bitcoin goes up, because by and large, these are Bitcoiners that are buying the common equity as this way to get more Bitcoin.

254
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And to a person, when I brought up this idea, and again, I don't go around talking about my background, but I've worked for a hedge fund. I've worked for an investment bank. Before that, I've worked in credit restructuring.

255
00:21:40,788 --> 00:21:52,588
there seems to be an entire absence from this entire evaluation of applying discount rates to

256
00:21:52,588 --> 00:21:59,248
future scenarios to basically NPV or to calculate what, you know, based on what scenario you are

257
00:21:59,248 --> 00:22:05,148
ascribing in the future to say what the value of the stock should be today, that that's entirely

258
00:22:05,148 --> 00:22:13,068
absent from the discussion. They also seemingly none of them contemplate the consequences of

259
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corporate taxes. They say, well, why would they ever sell the Bitcoin? I say,

260
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it doesn't matter if they sell the Bitcoin. The value of a company is based on

261
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return of capital and the timing of that return of capital to you.

262
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So in order for it to get out of the corporate structure into your pocket so that you could go

263
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get something of actual value, like a car or a home or what value really is, they would

264
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have to incur that tax.

265
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So it doesn't matter if they're not incurring it today, you would have to contemplate it

266
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in your own valuation of it, totally absent from the discussion.

267
00:22:48,748 --> 00:22:56,888
And so I think that it is really a simplistic view of leverage plus number go up equals

268
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more Bitcoin.

269
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And that just certainly is not true if you are not accounting for the other variables. Again, if you set aside all risk and simply isolated the premium that the stocks are trading, which is a backwards risk to how risk should be priced, along with the impact of corporate taxes.

270
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They'd be like, you basically have to out, like on a Bitcoin-denominated basis, you would have to outperform by 20% if it was one-to-one, if Bitcoin went to infinity and fiat went to zero.

271
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But nobody brings that up.

272
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And when I bring it up, I was just on a spaces, that concept was like foreign to people.

273
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And for me, having valued companies, like if you valued a stock, say, outside the Bitcoin world that doesn't currently return any capital shareholders, you're still having to apply a tax rate at the corporate level because your whole reason for buying it is actually capital return to you.

274
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um and and it it seems to be just a very you know you know people are not

275
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precisely or like really um you know they might say oh i know that there's risk but they're not

276
00:24:12,028 --> 00:24:19,128
pricing the risk is what i'm saying the interesting there is like i remember maybe six months ago fong

277
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lee came out and said that 80 of the people are buying stretch were retail investors do you think

278
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this is why because the sort of institutions are looking at this company in the same way that you

279
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are and actually risking this appropriately yeah i think the reality is that it's a heavy retail

280
00:24:36,708 --> 00:24:43,048
base because it's the people who are buying the common equity are the people most bullish on

281
00:24:43,048 --> 00:24:50,908
bitcoiners and it is hard for an institution you know if one out of 100 people understand bitcoin

282
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it's hard for a group of people managing institutional capital to,

283
00:24:56,948 --> 00:24:58,028
you know,

284
00:24:58,268 --> 00:24:59,768
get over 50% consensus.

285
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Right.

286
00:25:00,508 --> 00:25:01,628
So I think that that's,

287
00:25:01,708 --> 00:25:04,968
that's mostly what it is because also it's like institutions.

288
00:25:04,968 --> 00:25:05,468
I don't,

289
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you know,

290
00:25:06,928 --> 00:25:07,268
they're,

291
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they make a lot of boneheaded decisions,

292
00:25:12,568 --> 00:25:12,828
you know?

293
00:25:12,828 --> 00:25:15,828
So it's not like retail's not as smart as,

294
00:25:15,828 --> 00:25:18,428
as institutional capital.

295
00:25:18,788 --> 00:25:20,728
Like everyone who's early to Bitcoin is,

296
00:25:20,728 --> 00:25:23,048
smarter than those

297
00:25:23,048 --> 00:25:25,048
institutions. So I don't think that it's that

298
00:25:25,048 --> 00:25:26,968
but I do think that

299
00:25:26,968 --> 00:25:28,768
there then is a lack of rigor

300
00:25:28,768 --> 00:25:30,448
or lack of thought process

301
00:25:30,448 --> 00:25:32,828
as to the risk or how to quantify those

302
00:25:32,828 --> 00:25:34,628
risks and it's more of like a feels

303
00:25:34,628 --> 00:25:36,948
and then the feels gets resolved

304
00:25:36,948 --> 00:25:38,428
over time because anytime

305
00:25:38,428 --> 00:25:39,888
the premium emerges

306
00:25:39,888 --> 00:25:43,028
somebody, whether it's the companies themselves

307
00:25:43,028 --> 00:25:44,268
or a shareholder

308
00:25:44,268 --> 00:25:46,188
will harvest the premium

309
00:25:46,188 --> 00:25:48,588
to realize

310
00:25:48,588 --> 00:25:50,028
it and

311
00:25:50,028 --> 00:25:56,728
you know that becomes zero sum so what do you think the long term looks like for these companies

312
00:25:56,728 --> 00:26:11,976
do you think obviously you think trading below 1xm now but will will they survive do you think that they can continue to pay the the preferred dividends like what do you think will happen yeah i mean like my my expectation is that no i can say for every one of them right but like i would expect

313
00:26:11,976 --> 00:26:17,536
strategy to survive i would expect strategy to materially underperform bitcoin i think that the

314
00:26:17,536 --> 00:26:23,376
the strategy shareholder base is going to figure that out and start selling the stock to buy bitcoin

315
00:26:23,376 --> 00:26:34,616
um now companies that are in worse positions more leverage um less reason you know to exist

316
00:26:34,616 --> 00:26:39,796
um higher expense base because like that's what you have to think about some of these companies

317
00:26:39,796 --> 00:26:46,516
have a really you know people say well the etf has a expense ratio of 0.25 well start looking at

318
00:26:46,516 --> 00:26:50,196
the expense base of these corporate treasury companies.

319
00:26:51,216 --> 00:26:53,696
And you'll see that they have expenses too,

320
00:26:53,756 --> 00:26:54,936
and they're higher.

321
00:26:56,556 --> 00:26:58,456
And so, at some point,

322
00:26:58,536 --> 00:27:01,636
the companies will just return capital.

323
00:27:02,156 --> 00:27:06,756
I would expect this strategy continues to operate

324
00:27:06,756 --> 00:27:08,276
and ultimately shifts the strategy.

325
00:27:08,876 --> 00:27:11,636
Once their equity begins to trade

326
00:27:11,636 --> 00:27:13,156
at a steep discount to NAV,

327
00:27:13,156 --> 00:27:14,996
it's like, hey, Bitcoin can go up

328
00:27:14,996 --> 00:27:17,416
with a stock not going up.

329
00:27:17,896 --> 00:27:19,696
And that's part of the misaligned incentive.

330
00:27:19,856 --> 00:27:22,636
It's like there actually has to be a market for stock

331
00:27:22,636 --> 00:27:25,476
and their incentive is to get people to buy stock

332
00:27:25,476 --> 00:27:27,056
so that they can buy Bitcoin and not buy.

333
00:27:27,676 --> 00:27:31,056
But the incentive of the shareholder is to figure that out

334
00:27:31,056 --> 00:27:35,696
and also if there's ever a premium there to sell it to buy Bitcoin.

335
00:27:36,976 --> 00:27:42,516
But that might be how Bitcoin goes up and the share price doesn't,

336
00:27:42,596 --> 00:27:44,116
but the company still has the Bitcoin.

337
00:27:44,116 --> 00:28:11,976
And then the incentives start to align with the remaining shareholders, then, you know, are living in a world where it's much more difficult for them to be diluted. They do have a large base of Bitcoin. And that, again, I can't predict the future, but I would expect in that world that strategy becomes a, you know, an allocator of capital to generate cash flows rather than raise capital to buy Bitcoin.

338
00:28:11,976 --> 00:28:41,936
If I had to factor it in, but I think that anybody who's in it today is going to materially underperform Bitcoin because of the very overwhelming – when I zoom out, one of the things that I struggle with, why people can't see this is why when they zoom out that they would think that the market for a single-name stock would be bigger than the global demand for buying Bitcoin.

339
00:28:41,976 --> 00:28:48,576
directly, you know, because somebody still has to buy the stock for the value of the stock to go up.

340
00:28:50,436 --> 00:28:54,316
And it's like, why are there going to be a lot more people that demand buying that stock with

341
00:28:54,316 --> 00:29:00,296
leverage, with more risk when they could just own Bitcoin? You know, and even that, like, you know,

342
00:29:00,296 --> 00:29:06,636
genuinely, that was always the case. And it was always uninteresting to me. But it wasn't

343
00:29:06,636 --> 00:29:12,356
problematic in my mind until they start talking about Bitcoin in a way that confuses the nature

344
00:29:12,356 --> 00:29:18,476
of Bitcoin. Because that's what I view. It's like that actually retards an understanding of Bitcoin.

345
00:29:19,316 --> 00:29:25,316
It does it, you know, intentionally, not intentionally, however you want to describe

346
00:29:25,316 --> 00:29:33,116
it, to the ends of selling stock. And, you know, Bitcoin working is predicated on more people

347
00:29:33,116 --> 00:29:38,256
figuring out Bitcoin, not less. And they will over time. I think it will just be better off for

348
00:29:38,256 --> 00:29:43,036
everybody if more people figure it out sooner. So I think confusing the nature of Bitcoin of like

349
00:29:43,036 --> 00:29:51,056
avoiding talking about it as money is really what, you know, perked me up and got me engaged to dive

350
00:29:51,056 --> 00:29:59,476
in and look into it. Because it's not semantics. Like it's not semantics to expressly go out of

351
00:29:59,476 --> 00:30:06,716
way to define Bitcoin as the one thing that makes it unique.

352
00:30:08,116 --> 00:30:08,256
Yeah.

353
00:30:08,796 --> 00:30:15,676
And also, you know, someone like Michael Saylor has, on public record, been critical about

354
00:30:15,676 --> 00:30:16,796
the use of Bitcoin for payments.

355
00:30:16,896 --> 00:30:22,576
There was some interview that he did with CNBC in 2024, I believe it was, where the

356
00:30:22,576 --> 00:30:28,836
host asked him, you know, does Bitcoin need to be used as currency to be successful?

357
00:30:29,476 --> 00:30:44,736
And he described it as like, you know, that was a misfortunate history of, you know, Bitcoin's narrative. And, you know, it's controversial, you know, that's controversial. But, you know, Bitcoin is, you know, digital real estate in cyberspace or, you know, in Manhattan.

358
00:30:44,736 --> 00:31:12,336
You know, it's like, that's where I view, you know, I put these things together and I say, hey, it's confusing people about the nature of Bitcoin. That's slowing people's understanding of it. And if you have an incentive for Bitcoin not to be used as money, and you have a view that this is controversial, are your incentives actually aligned with, you know, Bitcoin and your shareholder base? Like, that's what I see to be more problematic.

359
00:31:12,336 --> 00:31:18,556
it's interesting that um like bitcoin i think last cycle from bottom to top did something like

360
00:31:18,556 --> 00:31:23,356
a 7x and people are still not seeing it as volatile enough and are trying to chase additional

361
00:31:23,356 --> 00:31:28,156
leverage with with things like um these treasury companies but how do you try and explain to people

362
00:31:28,156 --> 00:31:34,796
that the asymmetry and just owning actual bitcoin is still there because of how few people understand

363
00:31:34,796 --> 00:31:45,216
And, you know, like by whatever metric you want to look at, I would say a conservative estimate is still 1%.

364
00:31:45,216 --> 00:31:48,516
You know, no more than 1% of people understand Bitcoin.

365
00:31:48,516 --> 00:32:04,696
Now, if you are confusing the nature of what Bitcoin is and how Bitcoin adoption increases and that it is money and that 100% of the world needs money and money is this very unique economic good that is differentiated from all other goods.

366
00:32:04,796 --> 00:32:08,156
and it's a basic necessity, not a luxury,

367
00:32:08,876 --> 00:32:10,456
that then it becomes easy to say,

368
00:32:10,576 --> 00:32:12,756
okay, well, if the end game is 100% of people

369
00:32:12,756 --> 00:32:17,036
buying Bitcoin and no more than 1% of people understand it,

370
00:32:17,036 --> 00:32:18,956
and you can look at the value of Bitcoin

371
00:32:18,956 --> 00:32:25,016
relative to all the market of financial assets,

372
00:32:25,216 --> 00:32:26,536
so first the market of money,

373
00:32:26,856 --> 00:32:30,016
in its broadest sense, something like 100 to 120 trillion.

374
00:32:30,596 --> 00:32:33,996
Bitcoin is roughly 1.2 to 1.3 trillion today.

375
00:32:34,796 --> 00:32:44,416
That's asymmetric if you look at the fact that I think only two of the companies in the S&P 500 own Bitcoin, Square, Tesla.

376
00:32:45,656 --> 00:32:50,616
There are other companies that have holdings, but I don't think on a primary basis.

377
00:32:50,816 --> 00:32:58,416
Goldman might have some of the ETF for their customers, but from my understanding, if you think about holding on a direct basis,

378
00:32:58,916 --> 00:33:03,836
again, I'm just looking for benchmarks that say that one out of a hundred number is conservative.

379
00:33:03,836 --> 00:33:06,716
that you can look at a number of different points and say,

380
00:33:06,836 --> 00:33:09,936
okay, well, if what's actually happening here

381
00:33:09,936 --> 00:33:11,616
is that the world's adopting a new form of money

382
00:33:11,616 --> 00:33:12,656
and they're adopting Bitcoin

383
00:33:12,656 --> 00:33:14,456
because it has a credibly enforced fixed supply,

384
00:33:14,896 --> 00:33:16,336
100% of people are going to need it

385
00:33:16,336 --> 00:33:18,496
and very few people understand it

386
00:33:18,496 --> 00:33:20,196
and they're about to have to print a lot more money,

387
00:33:20,576 --> 00:33:25,976
then there's a lot of asymmetry left inherently there.

388
00:33:26,696 --> 00:33:29,576
If you start to think about it as digital capital,

389
00:33:29,676 --> 00:33:31,376
I don't even know, like if I was to ask you,

390
00:33:31,376 --> 00:33:33,976
what does digital capital actually mean?

391
00:33:34,916 --> 00:33:35,456
I don't know.

392
00:33:35,716 --> 00:33:38,396
But I don't understand a lot of his analogies.

393
00:33:38,736 --> 00:33:38,996
Yeah.

394
00:33:39,496 --> 00:33:40,616
I don't know if that's what I've done.

395
00:33:40,616 --> 00:33:45,376
Imagine trying to explain the narrative,

396
00:33:45,576 --> 00:33:48,776
you know, like the fundamental demand for Bitcoin.

397
00:33:49,096 --> 00:33:51,376
And if someone was like, well, what is digital capital?

398
00:33:52,736 --> 00:33:55,796
And you're like, I don't think most of the shareholders.

399
00:33:56,536 --> 00:33:58,056
They're like, oh, it's something you can borrow against.

400
00:33:58,136 --> 00:33:58,636
It's collateral.

401
00:33:59,196 --> 00:34:01,176
So everyone's borrowing against this thing.

402
00:34:01,376 --> 00:34:03,316
but what is the thing?

403
00:34:04,236 --> 00:34:05,336
Why are they able to borrow?

404
00:34:05,536 --> 00:34:07,356
Well, because it's scarce,

405
00:34:08,196 --> 00:34:09,896
but it's zeros and ones.

406
00:34:10,596 --> 00:34:14,556
So everyone's just holding the zeros and ones,

407
00:34:15,096 --> 00:34:17,976
but borrowing against it for other money.

408
00:34:20,176 --> 00:34:22,916
How does this work?

409
00:34:24,576 --> 00:34:28,796
And so it might become more difficult

410
00:34:28,796 --> 00:34:31,176
to think about the asymmetry of it

411
00:34:31,176 --> 00:34:33,036
if you're not thinking about it in the context of money.

412
00:34:33,716 --> 00:34:36,756
And it's like when Michael Saylor came to understand Bitcoin,

413
00:34:36,896 --> 00:34:38,956
he read the Bitcoin standard, right?

414
00:34:39,436 --> 00:34:44,536
So it's like for one side of the shareholder base,

415
00:34:44,596 --> 00:34:47,356
they're saying, oh, Bitcoin's not volatile enough.

416
00:34:47,416 --> 00:34:48,336
You need more volatility.

417
00:34:49,376 --> 00:34:51,756
And then the other side's like, oh, but for the 99% of you,

418
00:34:51,756 --> 00:34:57,816
it's too volatile for you just by my digital preferred equity.

419
00:34:57,816 --> 00:35:09,856
and um and so i think that like when you're stuck in that um financialized mentality that um that it

420
00:35:09,856 --> 00:35:13,216
might be difficult to see asymmetry because you're missing something fundamental about bitcoin

421
00:35:13,216 --> 00:35:19,736
and i do think and not to everyone because i know people who are you know really you know

422
00:35:19,736 --> 00:35:24,416
long-time bitcoiners that have started to allocate money to these bitcoin treasury companies so they

423
00:35:24,416 --> 00:35:25,496
they clearly get Bitcoin.

424
00:35:26,496 --> 00:35:28,456
I think they might just be wanting to gamble.

425
00:35:28,556 --> 00:35:29,716
They like gambling or something.

426
00:35:29,916 --> 00:35:30,116
Yeah.

427
00:35:31,216 --> 00:35:31,616
But,

428
00:35:32,096 --> 00:35:35,976
but a lot of other people came to Bitcoin by way of these.

429
00:35:36,076 --> 00:35:37,876
They caught enough signal to,

430
00:35:37,956 --> 00:35:41,876
to understand that there is financial upside to Bitcoin.

431
00:35:42,056 --> 00:35:43,536
And it's something that they want to own with it.

432
00:35:43,596 --> 00:35:44,796
Never actually having rabbit hole,

433
00:35:44,836 --> 00:35:48,196
but and do have a very limited surface level understanding.

434
00:35:48,356 --> 00:35:52,976
And those people are going to rabbit hole Bitcoin when the,

435
00:35:53,596 --> 00:35:53,996
you know,

436
00:35:53,996 --> 00:36:23,256
When the premium flips to a discount, they realize that the narrative was wrong, but they were so close to being on the signal and that will be an unlock. So that's where I say, you know, everything's good for Bitcoin. You know, the treasury companies don't have to fail for people to, for their stock to go up in fiat, for people to have, you know, inevitably gotten less Bitcoin as a result versus the very, you know, early minority of people that were in it before.

437
00:36:23,996 --> 00:36:27,356
it started to get heavily diluted and traded at material premium.

438
00:36:29,636 --> 00:36:32,336
But, you know, it's like money is money.

439
00:36:32,876 --> 00:36:35,156
There's fundamental truth that exists in the world

440
00:36:35,156 --> 00:36:36,476
and people will figure it out

441
00:36:36,476 --> 00:36:41,016
because you can only solve the problem of fiat money

442
00:36:41,016 --> 00:36:43,056
with another better form of money and that's Bitcoin.

443
00:36:43,776 --> 00:36:46,396
Do you want to pay less in taxes and stack more Bitcoin?

444
00:36:46,796 --> 00:36:47,576
Of course you do.

445
00:36:47,936 --> 00:36:49,916
Well, by mining Bitcoin with Blockway, you can.

446
00:36:50,456 --> 00:36:52,696
Under section 168K of the US tax code,

447
00:36:52,696 --> 00:36:55,996
Bitcoin mining servers qualify for 100% bonus depreciation.

448
00:36:56,676 --> 00:36:58,296
This means every dollar you spend on miners

449
00:36:58,296 --> 00:37:00,536
can directly offset your income in a single year.

450
00:37:00,936 --> 00:37:03,276
And it's true for both business owners and W2 earners.

451
00:37:03,596 --> 00:37:05,776
So if you have $100,000 in ordinary income,

452
00:37:06,016 --> 00:37:07,896
you can purchase $100,000 in miners

453
00:37:07,896 --> 00:37:10,576
and potentially offset your tax liability entirely.

454
00:37:11,536 --> 00:37:13,736
Blockware's mining as a service does all the heavy lifting.

455
00:37:13,996 --> 00:37:16,156
They secure the rigs, they source the low-cost power,

456
00:37:16,256 --> 00:37:17,796
and they handle all the day-to-day maintenance.

457
00:37:18,196 --> 00:37:20,556
So you get to stack Bitcoin every single day

458
00:37:20,556 --> 00:37:22,196
while drastically shrinking your tax bill.

459
00:37:22,196 --> 00:37:29,176
Get started today at blockwaresolutions.com forward slash WBD and use code WBD for $100 off your first miner.

460
00:37:29,576 --> 00:37:33,016
That's blockwaresolutions.com forward slash WBD.

461
00:37:33,336 --> 00:37:37,676
You wouldn't reuse a Bitcoin address, so why does your phone broadcast the same identifier for life?

462
00:37:38,316 --> 00:37:43,316
Every SIM has a static ID and carriers, ad networks and bad actors all use it to track you.

463
00:37:43,776 --> 00:37:46,776
The big carriers have been caught selling that data over and over again.

464
00:37:47,656 --> 00:37:49,836
Cape is America's privacy first mobile carrier.

465
00:37:49,836 --> 00:37:53,756
Their identifier rotation feature changes your ID every 24 hours

466
00:37:53,756 --> 00:37:56,256
so you look like a different subscriber every single day.

467
00:37:56,916 --> 00:37:58,156
And sim swaps are off the table.

468
00:37:58,536 --> 00:38:01,696
Your number can't move without a 24-word phrase that only you hold.

469
00:38:02,096 --> 00:38:05,056
There's also no name at sign up, no social security number,

470
00:38:05,236 --> 00:38:06,916
and there's no profile to build on you.

471
00:38:07,336 --> 00:38:08,796
If you're a Bitcoiner in America,

472
00:38:08,956 --> 00:38:11,136
I honestly don't know why you'd use any other network.

473
00:38:11,396 --> 00:38:14,256
You can head over to cape.co forward slash WBD

474
00:38:14,256 --> 00:38:17,976
and use the code WBD for 33% off your first six months.

475
00:38:17,976 --> 00:38:24,676
that's c-a-p-e dot co forward slash w-b-d if you're already self-custody bitcoin you know the

476
00:38:24,676 --> 00:38:29,296
deal with hardware wallets complex setups clumsy interfaces and a seed phrase that can be lost

477
00:38:29,296 --> 00:38:35,036
stolen or forgotten bitkey fixes that bitkey self-custody built for real life it gives you

478
00:38:35,036 --> 00:38:39,516
an intuitive easy to use wallet with no seed phrase to sweat over and it has a strong recovery

479
00:38:39,516 --> 00:38:43,876
system and built-in inheritance for long-term peace of mind and bitkey's just had a massive

480
00:38:43,876 --> 00:38:48,076
upgrade. The new device now has a screen. So before you approve something, you can check it

481
00:38:48,076 --> 00:38:53,416
on the BitKey itself. The transaction, the address, or any account changes. It's a big difference.

482
00:38:53,536 --> 00:38:56,916
You're not just trusting what's on your phone. You're seeing it for yourself on the device.

483
00:38:57,456 --> 00:39:11,804
It simple secure self without the stress Go to bitkey today and use the code WBD to get 10 off the new bitkey that bitkey and use the code wbd so if one you think one in a hundred people

484
00:39:11,804 --> 00:39:16,084
understand bitcoin i think that's probably a fair number in terms of understand i think maybe

485
00:39:16,084 --> 00:39:22,464
more people would have some kind of x exposure to it um but i would say no more than one in a hundred

486
00:39:22,464 --> 00:39:26,404
people actually understand what bitcoin is what do you think the milestone we need to reach is

487
00:39:26,404 --> 00:39:30,664
to sort of move us from, I guess that's like the, when do we go from gradually to suddenly?

488
00:39:30,784 --> 00:39:34,104
Like how many people need to understand Bitcoin for us to reach that sort of escape velocity?

489
00:39:35,264 --> 00:39:38,764
I would expect that it's something like three to 5% of people.

490
00:39:39,364 --> 00:39:40,264
As low as that?

491
00:39:41,164 --> 00:39:48,464
Yeah. But I also don't believe that, you know, I anchor people to 1% because your question was,

492
00:39:48,804 --> 00:39:56,024
you know, is there still asymmetry in Bitcoin? And if you understand,

493
00:39:56,024 --> 00:40:09,224
If you come to understand the nature of Bitcoin as money and the importance of its fixed supply and that everybody needs Bitcoin and economic systems do converge on one form of money and it's not random that everyone in the US uses dollars.

494
00:40:09,224 --> 00:40:16,624
It's not random that everyone in Europe uses euros and yen in Japan and it's also not random that the gold standard existed.

495
00:40:16,624 --> 00:40:19,344
then you start to be, if you're at 1%,

496
00:40:19,344 --> 00:40:21,624
then you start to conceptualize that it's,

497
00:40:21,624 --> 00:40:26,904
you know, 1 to 100 asymmetric.

498
00:40:28,504 --> 00:40:30,384
But from a practical perspective,

499
00:40:30,524 --> 00:40:33,624
we're not, like, there are not 1%,

500
00:40:34,404 --> 00:40:36,604
there are not 80 million people in the world

501
00:40:36,604 --> 00:40:40,344
that really grok Bitcoin.

502
00:40:41,144 --> 00:40:41,384
No.

503
00:40:41,644 --> 00:40:41,824
No.

504
00:40:41,824 --> 00:40:52,244
um and so if it's something smaller than that you know which it which it is it's like if if 80

505
00:40:52,244 --> 00:40:58,004
million people in the world really understood bitcoin the bitcoin price wouldn't be where it is

506
00:40:58,004 --> 00:41:09,084
and uh because those 80 million people would be you know ceos of fortune 500 companies and you

507
00:41:09,084 --> 00:41:13,204
They have access to more information, more ability to adopt.

508
00:41:15,724 --> 00:41:17,564
It's probably less than 5 million people.

509
00:41:18,224 --> 00:41:18,444
Yeah.

510
00:41:19,484 --> 00:41:31,424
I would guess if it was 5 million people, the Bitcoin conference wouldn't have to appeal to altcoins and have 15,000 people out.

511
00:41:34,364 --> 00:41:36,364
It's still early, very early.

512
00:41:36,364 --> 00:42:05,984
And so when I think about three to 5%, I think about it from the perspective of who are those people, you know, like, because if it's more people like Michael Saylor, more people like, you know, Ross Stevens, the founder of Stone Ridge, if it's, you know, people who run companies, their spheres of influence in terms of just the people immediately around them that

513
00:42:06,364 --> 00:42:09,504
catch on to their signal,

514
00:42:10,544 --> 00:42:14,944
that if it's one in 20 people,

515
00:42:15,064 --> 00:42:19,604
if one in 20 people really rocked Bitcoin,

516
00:42:20,124 --> 00:42:24,664
that would be 400 million people, right?

517
00:42:25,644 --> 00:42:27,224
If I'm doing my math right,

518
00:42:27,284 --> 00:42:30,844
8 billion, 80 million times five, right?

519
00:42:32,124 --> 00:42:35,284
That Bitcoin becomes very easy to see

520
00:42:35,284 --> 00:42:36,864
in that world.

521
00:42:37,544 --> 00:42:38,504
Like in terms of like,

522
00:42:39,204 --> 00:42:40,604
you're still a little bit crazy

523
00:42:40,604 --> 00:42:42,024
if you're the person in your circle

524
00:42:42,024 --> 00:42:44,364
that has had enough vision

525
00:42:44,364 --> 00:42:45,664
to see how Bitcoin goes

526
00:42:45,664 --> 00:42:46,644
from where it is today

527
00:42:46,644 --> 00:42:50,284
to a fully functioning money system

528
00:42:50,284 --> 00:42:51,164
that's being used

529
00:42:51,164 --> 00:42:52,784
to facilitate transactions

530
00:42:52,784 --> 00:42:55,344
for day-to-day commerce.

531
00:42:56,444 --> 00:42:58,864
And once enough people

532
00:42:58,864 --> 00:43:00,684
have figured it out,

533
00:43:00,864 --> 00:43:03,624
then it will be like a rush to the exit.

534
00:43:03,744 --> 00:43:05,104
It will likely coincide with fiat.

535
00:43:05,284 --> 00:43:13,444
hyperinflation um where where people won't be sitting around saying you know what's the benefit

536
00:43:13,444 --> 00:43:19,764
of investing in a bitcoin treasury company or not and thinking in you know fiat kegers

537
00:43:19,764 --> 00:43:27,784
they're going to be flooding to the only form of money that's holding its value um and so um you

538
00:43:27,784 --> 00:43:34,084
know another way i would look at it though is similar to when a when a currency hyperinflates

539
00:43:34,084 --> 00:43:39,984
like the Argentine peso or the Turkish lira

540
00:43:39,984 --> 00:43:42,804
or Venezuelan Boulevard,

541
00:43:43,804 --> 00:43:48,124
it wasn't because 50% of the people figured out

542
00:43:48,124 --> 00:43:49,224
that the money is not working.

543
00:43:50,664 --> 00:43:52,764
The smaller group of people figured it out,

544
00:43:53,204 --> 00:43:54,584
headed for the exits,

545
00:43:54,724 --> 00:43:56,864
and then the rest of the people figured out

546
00:43:56,864 --> 00:43:58,224
what's going on as a function of it.

547
00:43:58,564 --> 00:44:01,724
So that's what I viewed to be more likely.

548
00:44:01,724 --> 00:44:07,504
but it's also part of the reason why you know on the treasury companies i do think there's

549
00:44:07,504 --> 00:44:11,524
something about the treasury companies that just confuses a lot of people about bitcoin not just

550
00:44:11,524 --> 00:44:16,124
about what they you know how they talk about bitcoin and that that confuses them but like

551
00:44:16,124 --> 00:44:22,924
the idea of like but you buy you you know someone lends money to you and you buy bitcoin and

552
00:44:22,924 --> 00:44:26,404
you know what's the risk that you blow up even if i don't think that they'll blow up

553
00:44:26,404 --> 00:44:29,384
but I also think

554
00:44:29,384 --> 00:44:30,884
that they're adversarial

555
00:44:30,884 --> 00:44:32,804
and they're not all adversarial

556
00:44:32,804 --> 00:44:34,504
and maybe adversarial is a strong word

557
00:44:34,504 --> 00:44:37,424
but to talk about

558
00:44:37,424 --> 00:44:38,344
Bitcoin payments

559
00:44:38,344 --> 00:44:39,544
where it's not just like a meme

560
00:44:39,544 --> 00:44:40,644
like don't spend your Bitcoin

561
00:44:40,644 --> 00:44:41,964
like I understand those people

562
00:44:41,964 --> 00:44:43,304
but it's a difference to say

563
00:44:43,304 --> 00:44:43,884
like you know

564
00:44:43,884 --> 00:44:44,844
don't spend your Bitcoin

565
00:44:44,844 --> 00:44:45,764
to saying that

566
00:44:45,764 --> 00:44:47,444
Bitcoin payments

567
00:44:47,444 --> 00:44:49,004
is a misfortunate

568
00:44:49,004 --> 00:44:50,884
unfortunate part of

569
00:44:50,884 --> 00:44:51,224
you know

570
00:44:51,224 --> 00:44:52,724
the historical narrative

571
00:44:52,724 --> 00:44:54,424
and to be antagonistic

572
00:44:54,424 --> 00:44:56,024
to the use of Bitcoin as payments

573
00:44:56,024 --> 00:44:59,904
because that is a necessary part of the end game.

574
00:45:00,064 --> 00:45:02,144
If you hear someone like Jack Dorsey talk about it,

575
00:45:02,144 --> 00:45:08,264
where he says Bitcoin needs to be everyday money to work,

576
00:45:08,564 --> 00:45:08,924
to be successful.

577
00:45:09,244 --> 00:45:11,824
Now, that doesn't mean that everybody needs to be paying for things in Bitcoin today,

578
00:45:11,944 --> 00:45:14,244
but as an end state or an end game,

579
00:45:15,764 --> 00:45:18,184
that needs to be the end game

580
00:45:18,184 --> 00:45:21,324
because otherwise, if Bitcoin was just locked up

581
00:45:21,324 --> 00:45:23,344
in a relatively few large institutions,

582
00:45:23,344 --> 00:45:27,144
it would be so centralized that it would not be resistant to censorship.

583
00:45:27,384 --> 00:45:34,564
If it's not resistant to censorship, then the whole exercise is moot.

584
00:45:35,124 --> 00:45:39,624
If it's not resistant to censorship, you've just recreated the fiat system.

585
00:45:41,624 --> 00:45:46,704
If you can censor Bitcoin, it's too centralized to not be resistant to it.

586
00:45:47,164 --> 00:45:51,944
You can alter one rule, you can functionally alter other rules like the fixed supply.

587
00:45:51,944 --> 00:45:52,984
and so

588
00:45:52,984 --> 00:45:54,164
but where I'm going

589
00:45:54,164 --> 00:45:54,684
is that

590
00:45:54,684 --> 00:45:57,304
my view of it is

591
00:45:57,304 --> 00:45:58,124
and again

592
00:45:58,124 --> 00:45:58,824
I'm working on

593
00:45:58,824 --> 00:45:59,524
Bitcoin payments

594
00:45:59,524 --> 00:46:00,444
but I'm also doing that

595
00:46:00,444 --> 00:46:01,424
for logical reasons

596
00:46:01,424 --> 00:46:02,284
it's part of the reason

597
00:46:02,284 --> 00:46:02,904
why you know

598
00:46:02,904 --> 00:46:04,124
I see this as problematic

599
00:46:04,124 --> 00:46:05,164
but

600
00:46:05,164 --> 00:46:06,904
the vast majority

601
00:46:06,904 --> 00:46:07,404
of people

602
00:46:07,404 --> 00:46:08,204
are going to start

603
00:46:08,204 --> 00:46:08,744
to understand

604
00:46:08,744 --> 00:46:09,444
Bitcoin as money

605
00:46:09,444 --> 00:46:10,224
as they see it

606
00:46:10,224 --> 00:46:11,584
being used as money

607
00:46:11,584 --> 00:46:12,624
and so

608
00:46:12,624 --> 00:46:13,844
if you are

609
00:46:13,844 --> 00:46:16,144
if your position

610
00:46:16,144 --> 00:46:16,984
as a company

611
00:46:16,984 --> 00:46:17,964
is antagonistic

612
00:46:17,964 --> 00:46:18,284
to that

613
00:46:18,284 --> 00:46:19,444
I view it as problematic

614
00:46:19,444 --> 00:46:20,424
to

615
00:46:20,424 --> 00:46:20,704
to

616
00:46:21,944 --> 00:46:28,864
the future adoption of Bitcoin to working. And because for some people, only a certain number

617
00:46:28,864 --> 00:46:32,544
of people in the world will be able to sit down, read a book, listen to a podcast,

618
00:46:33,124 --> 00:46:37,724
see this very esoteric thing and be like, ah, yep, this is where the world's going. I'm going

619
00:46:37,724 --> 00:46:42,944
to buy Bitcoin today with the idea that everyone else is going to come to a similar conclusion that

620
00:46:42,944 --> 00:46:47,704
this is the best form of money. But when you can go down the street in Austin, Texas on a square

621
00:46:47,704 --> 00:46:54,264
terminal by beef for Bitcoin and eggs for Bitcoin and sourdough bread for Bitcoin, that for the

622
00:46:54,264 --> 00:46:59,944
person that doesn't have enough vision and not in a critical way, but just in a very logical way,

623
00:46:59,984 --> 00:47:05,104
be like, hey, it's hard for somebody to understand Bitcoin as money when it's not using money. Well,

624
00:47:05,104 --> 00:47:12,224
when they see it capable of being used as money, that is an unlock. It closes the mental loop.

625
00:47:12,224 --> 00:47:39,064
It's like, okay, I'm not using Bitcoin as money, but you can. And I'm now going to evaluate this in the context of all this other intellectual kind of thought process or logic about why somebody created Bitcoin to be this form of money that has this fixed supply and that it was expressly created because of all the trust that you had to put in banks and that trust had been broken.

626
00:47:39,064 --> 00:47:44,824
central banks creating money, quantitative easing, banks creating credit bubbles, everything.

627
00:47:45,144 --> 00:47:48,724
But if you don't have that being used, or if you're actively working to constrain that,

628
00:47:49,244 --> 00:47:58,944
that that is something that is in opposition to a wave of people that would start to turn on to it,

629
00:47:59,024 --> 00:48:03,124
turning on. You know, now Square do Bitcoin payments. What percentage of your payments

630
00:48:03,124 --> 00:48:07,304
that you're making, things you're buying is in Bitcoin? Because for me, like basically the only

631
00:48:07,304 --> 00:48:11,364
time i ever actually use bitcoin as money is around bitcoin events and bitcoin conferences

632
00:48:11,364 --> 00:48:16,184
because otherwise i just don't really have an opportunity to um i mean it's still low right

633
00:48:16,184 --> 00:48:26,764
but uh in terms of uh percent it's greater in number of payments smaller in um absolute value

634
00:48:26,764 --> 00:48:35,704
i'd say but like um my local grocer accepts bitcoin the uh the woman who cuts my hair

635
00:48:35,704 --> 00:48:37,964
she was already on Square

636
00:48:37,964 --> 00:48:40,524
so she now accepts Bitcoin

637
00:48:40,524 --> 00:48:41,704
it was her first Bitcoin

638
00:48:41,704 --> 00:48:44,104
you know

639
00:48:44,104 --> 00:48:44,444
so

640
00:48:44,444 --> 00:48:48,184
again when you think about it

641
00:48:48,184 --> 00:48:50,164
again

642
00:48:50,164 --> 00:48:52,064
it's a microcosm but

643
00:48:52,064 --> 00:48:54,244
a woman who had never bought Bitcoin

644
00:48:54,244 --> 00:48:56,284
I've been going to the same woman for 8 years

645
00:48:56,284 --> 00:48:57,904
okay

646
00:48:57,904 --> 00:49:00,064
since I moved back to Austin

647
00:49:00,064 --> 00:49:01,924
great lady

648
00:49:01,924 --> 00:49:03,964
super based

649
00:49:03,964 --> 00:49:05,204
and

650
00:49:05,204 --> 00:49:13,804
she the first bitcoin that she ever got was after square turned on bitcoin payments and i paid her

651
00:49:13,804 --> 00:49:18,664
in bitcoin that's cool that she had every opportunity i've been talking to her about

652
00:49:18,664 --> 00:49:26,344
bitcoin for eight years right but it was square turning the ability to accept bitcoin on and she

653
00:49:26,344 --> 00:49:34,944
was like yeah sure like that for whatever reason super easy for her you know going to an exchange

654
00:49:34,944 --> 00:49:38,564
wasn't.

655
00:49:39,904 --> 00:49:42,584
And so I do think it's a critical part.

656
00:49:42,584 --> 00:49:45,484
And one of the other things that occurred in my

657
00:49:45,484 --> 00:49:49,424
flippening on the Bitcoin treasury companies was like,

658
00:49:50,504 --> 00:49:53,964
we turned Bitcoin into money.

659
00:49:54,424 --> 00:49:56,164
Digital credit is the most important inflection

660
00:49:56,164 --> 00:49:58,324
in the history of Bitcoin.

661
00:49:59,024 --> 00:50:01,424
Credit on Bitcoin is bigger than lightning

662
00:50:01,424 --> 00:50:05,204
or multi-sig.

663
00:50:05,964 --> 00:50:09,944
That is implicitly the comment.

664
00:50:10,564 --> 00:50:12,404
But then Saylor also made a comment

665
00:50:12,404 --> 00:50:13,564
about how what was happening

666
00:50:13,564 --> 00:50:16,644
with the preferred stock of Strive

667
00:50:16,644 --> 00:50:20,304
was the most interesting thing

668
00:50:20,304 --> 00:50:23,084
happening in Bitcoin at the time.

669
00:50:23,744 --> 00:50:26,204
It was happening at a time

670
00:50:26,204 --> 00:50:27,544
where Square was rolling out

671
00:50:27,544 --> 00:50:31,064
Bitcoin payments to 4 million merchants.

672
00:50:31,424 --> 00:50:32,384
Yeah, crazy.

673
00:50:32,644 --> 00:50:33,384
What are we talking about?

674
00:50:35,384 --> 00:50:38,744
And so I don't think like Sailor's bad.

675
00:50:38,944 --> 00:50:41,964
You know, it's like, I wish that like 2020 Sailor would come back.

676
00:50:42,544 --> 00:50:42,944
Yeah.

677
00:50:43,124 --> 00:50:43,484
You know?

678
00:50:43,764 --> 00:50:44,824
That's exactly where I'm at.

679
00:50:44,864 --> 00:50:45,384
He's in there.

680
00:50:45,584 --> 00:50:46,144
He's in there.

681
00:50:46,324 --> 00:50:47,504
Like there was a podcast.

682
00:50:47,744 --> 00:50:54,444
I don't know if you were a part of it, but there was a podcast that he did with Eric

683
00:50:54,444 --> 00:50:57,144
Kaysen and John Ballas.

684
00:50:57,144 --> 00:50:58,764
Oh, Mr. Yeah.

685
00:50:58,864 --> 00:50:59,304
And HODL.

686
00:50:59,564 --> 00:51:00,444
It was a HODL.

687
00:51:00,444 --> 00:51:05,264
but like when you when you listen to it it's like man this guy gets like the fundamental

688
00:51:05,264 --> 00:51:11,464
importance of bitcoin and i'm like where's that guy he's in 100 he's in there i want to see him

689
00:51:11,464 --> 00:51:17,604
come back too yeah um i think he might be gone though um i think you know when you talk you do

690
00:51:17,604 --> 00:51:23,304
i hope so um you know when you talk about this like any state of bitcoin this bitcoin is hope

691
00:51:23,304 --> 00:51:28,304
um we hope he comes back yeah you know when you talk about like this end state of bitcoin this

692
00:51:28,304 --> 00:51:34,384
type of Bitcoinized world, however you want to call it. Do you think that Bitcoin is the global

693
00:51:34,384 --> 00:51:39,844
reserve currency? It's used in every single payment by every single person? Because there's

694
00:51:39,844 --> 00:51:44,564
this like growing idea that Bitcoin won't step into that role and instead will be the global

695
00:51:44,564 --> 00:51:49,484
reserve asset and will still have some like USDT stable coin type payment rails.

696
00:51:50,244 --> 00:51:55,524
No, Bitcoin will be the reserve currency. I think like there's two things that I think confuse

697
00:51:55,524 --> 00:51:57,524
people. They refer to

698
00:51:57,524 --> 00:51:59,524
a reserve asset versus a reserve

699
00:51:59,524 --> 00:52:01,044
currency, and when they're doing that,

700
00:52:01,444 --> 00:52:03,524
they're kind of like...

701
00:52:03,524 --> 00:52:04,944
The real

702
00:52:04,992 --> 00:52:16,852
Realistically, maybe conflating is the wrong term, but they look at the treasury as a treasury bill as a reserve asset and the dollar as a reserve currency.

703
00:52:17,612 --> 00:52:26,292
But the dollar is money and a treasury is a claim on future dollars at some future point in time.

704
00:52:26,292 --> 00:52:36,152
and if the dollar held its value rather than degraded in value then why would they need to

705
00:52:36,152 --> 00:52:42,892
buy the treasury right um so it's like hey they know the dollar is losing value the treasury

706
00:52:42,892 --> 00:52:49,892
is functionally speaking guaranteed by the u.s government so i'll i'll own the treasury because

707
00:52:49,892 --> 00:52:54,852
it's going to give me some nominal yield which is better than just holding the dollar

708
00:52:54,852 --> 00:52:57,592
but a large function of it is

709
00:52:57,592 --> 00:53:00,052
created by the decline in the dollar.

710
00:53:02,492 --> 00:53:04,912
And so it's like money is both an asset

711
00:53:04,912 --> 00:53:08,472
and a currency. Not all assets are money

712
00:53:08,472 --> 00:53:12,012
but money is an asset. It's not semantics.

713
00:53:12,012 --> 00:53:15,412
It's like the thing that makes money money is unique to it

714
00:53:15,412 --> 00:53:18,452
and the other assets don't have the

715
00:53:18,452 --> 00:53:21,932
properties that could allow it to be that thing.

716
00:53:21,932 --> 00:53:38,632
And so I do think that there's going to be an inclination to try to force Bitcoin into a box that says, oh, you have to use this fiat stablecoin and there's going to be Bitcoin and the institutions.

717
00:53:38,632 --> 00:53:42,732
That's part of what I see being problematic.

718
00:53:42,972 --> 00:53:52,812
Now, the economic gravity of Bitcoin will dictate that it will break through those barriers as well.

719
00:53:53,352 --> 00:53:58,632
But that doesn't mean that everybody, first people through the door aren't caught up in the crossfire.

720
00:54:00,592 --> 00:54:05,192
But the reason why, so one, it's just like a currency is an asset.

721
00:54:05,192 --> 00:54:13,432
Now, Bitcoin is unique in the history of money because it is a form of money that is both functional as money and as a currency.

722
00:54:14,192 --> 00:54:20,332
And, you know, for the longest time, I didn't really appreciate the distinction of when people were differentiated between money as currency.

723
00:54:20,552 --> 00:54:24,712
If you ask somebody about the dollar, they'd be like, is the dollar money or currency?

724
00:54:25,392 --> 00:54:28,592
They would probably look at you sideways like, what are you talking about?

725
00:54:29,612 --> 00:54:31,072
Because they sound like the same thing.

726
00:54:31,192 --> 00:54:32,612
Right, because they think of them the same thing.

727
00:54:32,612 --> 00:54:34,752
It's like money's currency, currency's money.

728
00:54:35,192 --> 00:54:44,952
Well, if gold was money, gold needed to be refined into a currency to have the utility in trade.

729
00:54:45,432 --> 00:54:45,992
You had to set a standard.

730
00:54:45,992 --> 00:54:46,932
You need to turn into coins.

731
00:54:47,232 --> 00:54:49,452
You had to turn into coins into a standard unit.

732
00:54:51,032 --> 00:54:54,292
The idea of one ounce needed to be standardized.

733
00:54:54,572 --> 00:54:59,172
Gold, the element on its own is just an element.

734
00:54:59,172 --> 00:55:06,192
putting it into a standard unit putting the stamp of a crown you know having a currency issuer that

735
00:55:06,192 --> 00:55:14,532
is turning into the coin ensuring that there isn't counterfeit out there was a functional part of the

736
00:55:14,532 --> 00:55:19,852
the role of the currency issuer relative to the money that there actually was a distinction and

737
00:55:19,852 --> 00:55:27,032
in the entire history of commodity metals that has that has functionally been the case and like a

738
00:55:27,032 --> 00:55:32,632
a gold bar that doesn't have the mark of a crown on it to this day

739
00:55:32,632 --> 00:55:36,592
is considered different, is not considered to be currency.

740
00:55:36,672 --> 00:55:37,812
That's why they call it bullion.

741
00:55:38,992 --> 00:55:44,732
Now, Bitcoin is unique because not only does it have this fixed supply

742
00:55:44,732 --> 00:55:46,652
and it has these monetary properties,

743
00:55:47,472 --> 00:55:51,732
but the Bitcoin network does,

744
00:55:51,892 --> 00:55:54,112
and I'm not distinguishing between Bitcoin, the asset, and Bitcoin,

745
00:55:54,192 --> 00:55:55,632
the network, I put those two things as one.

746
00:55:55,632 --> 00:56:23,452
The network is not valuable without the currency. The currency is dependent on having these nodes to be able to transmit money in the system to have final settlement. But Bitcoin in its totality issues the money, verifies all transactions, and has a standard unit baked in. You don't need someone to create one ounce of gold. You have one Satoshi.

747
00:56:23,452 --> 00:56:32,252
and so for the first time a form of money can be a currency as well bitcoin because the bitcoin

748
00:56:32,252 --> 00:56:37,732
network is capable of doing all of the things that a currency issuer was previously necessary for

749
00:56:37,732 --> 00:56:46,352
to refine money into something that was a utility in trade um so it doesn't need the issuer

750
00:56:46,352 --> 00:56:50,232
that's like the fundamental aspect of Bitcoin

751
00:56:50,232 --> 00:56:52,072
then when it comes to well

752
00:56:52,072 --> 00:56:56,132
yeah there are going to be people who want to put Bitcoin

753
00:56:56,132 --> 00:56:58,932
sitting in a stablecoin wrapper

754
00:56:58,932 --> 00:57:01,992
and say that you have to use this or they might even just think it's a good idea

755
00:57:01,992 --> 00:57:04,832
that it's a good way to scale

756
00:57:04,832 --> 00:57:06,352
that there will be that inclination

757
00:57:06,352 --> 00:57:08,972
Tether's already started to buy Bitcoin

758
00:57:08,972 --> 00:57:11,212
they'll probably allocate more to Bitcoin over time

759
00:57:11,212 --> 00:57:15,772
but to a holder

760
00:57:15,772 --> 00:57:41,212
However, the economic incentives dictate, even if you are going to use a custodian, this isn't about purity. It's about pragmatism. That if you were going to use a custodian or not, that if you were going to use a custodian and somebody was like, hey, you're going to deposit your Bitcoin to my bank or my bank-like entity.

761
00:57:41,212 --> 00:57:44,312
and I'm going to give you a note back

762
00:57:44,312 --> 00:57:47,912
that's denominated in some other money, not Bitcoin.

763
00:57:49,712 --> 00:57:51,612
You'd be like, well, why do you need to do that?

764
00:57:51,732 --> 00:57:54,292
Why don't you just denominate it in Bitcoin?

765
00:57:54,492 --> 00:57:58,332
Denominate your liability to me, your obligation to me.

766
00:57:58,472 --> 00:58:01,432
Or more likely the incentives will dictate,

767
00:58:01,912 --> 00:58:03,212
hey, this is not a deposit.

768
00:58:03,372 --> 00:58:05,172
This is a bailment arrangement.

769
00:58:05,172 --> 00:58:09,352
Like you can't, legally, you can't take my money

770
00:58:09,352 --> 00:58:10,292
and give it to somebody else.

771
00:58:10,292 --> 00:58:32,312
But in either of those two scenarios, the bailment arrangement or the deposit arrangement, the economic incentive would dictate, like, just make it denominated in the currency that I'm giving you, not some other currency for which you're the issuer of that has a different denomination.

772
00:58:32,312 --> 00:58:37,952
right and if and if one bank wants to do that another bank is going to follow the economic

773
00:58:37,952 --> 00:58:43,552
incentive and say well i'll let's all you know whether it's a different bank or a different

774
00:58:43,552 --> 00:58:49,792
jurisdiction they would say like i'll let you you know i'll denominate my liability to you in bitcoin

775
00:58:49,792 --> 00:58:59,924
rather than some currency i just made up and said that you know my currency is convertible to you at you know 10 to one you like 20 to one which was like dollars to gold

776
00:59:00,524 --> 00:59:03,944
at least around, you know, 1920 or 1930.

777
00:59:04,444 --> 00:59:07,684
So you basically would have to make up some new currency supply,

778
00:59:07,684 --> 00:59:10,084
or even if you were issuing it one-to-one,

779
00:59:10,484 --> 00:59:12,984
like imagine like a tether to dollar,

780
00:59:13,544 --> 00:59:14,724
if you were to do that with Bitcoin,

781
00:59:14,924 --> 00:59:19,824
if it wasn't actually in Bitcoin, but was in, you know, BTC tether,

782
00:59:20,344 --> 00:59:21,244
It's not Bitcoin.

783
00:59:21,844 --> 00:59:31,484
You know, like your liability to me would be the currency and the gravitational force of the economic incentive would just be like, well, it's all the same to you.

784
00:59:31,644 --> 00:59:38,784
Like just denominate your liability in Bitcoin, you know, and if you won't, I'll go find someone that does.

785
00:59:38,784 --> 00:59:45,844
And so for that reason, Bitcoin will just be the reserve currency.

786
00:59:45,844 --> 00:59:51,964
There's no – the network's capable of doing all the functions of a currency issuer.

787
00:59:52,204 --> 00:59:53,444
It's technically not needed.

788
00:59:53,744 --> 00:59:57,864
All it's introducing would be introducing greater economic friction.

789
00:59:58,664 --> 01:00:03,244
And that also aligns with the incentive of the individual on the other side.

790
01:00:03,804 --> 01:00:07,724
And so people will try to do dumb things.

791
01:00:08,064 --> 01:00:09,164
Don't get me wrong.

792
01:00:09,164 --> 01:00:18,424
um but at the end of the day all of the incentives are like squarely real behind you know you central

793
01:00:18,424 --> 01:00:25,224
bank hold bitcoin or you you government of country xyz hold bitcoin you individual in america just

794
01:00:25,224 --> 01:00:31,444
hold bitcoin or hold it with a bank that denominates in bitcoin um and so i've got like one

795
01:00:31,444 --> 01:00:36,164
bit of keynesian brain rot that i can't get rid of which is what credit looks like in a fully

796
01:00:36,164 --> 01:00:44,404
Bitcoinized world. Because I understand the positives of it are that if we live in Bitcoin,

797
01:00:44,604 --> 01:00:49,104
I'm denominating, any credit that I give is denominated in Bitcoin. That gets rid of so

798
01:00:49,104 --> 01:00:54,824
much malinvestment. But does it also slow investment to the point where it's much harder

799
01:00:54,824 --> 01:01:03,584
to build new things? No, not in my view. I think that deflation,

800
01:01:03,584 --> 01:01:06,704
if you think about it as a concept,

801
01:01:07,004 --> 01:01:08,684
because, and I'm not suggesting you're a Keynesian,

802
01:01:08,744 --> 01:01:10,064
but a lot of Keynesian struggle with this,

803
01:01:10,564 --> 01:01:13,864
is that if there is realized deflation,

804
01:01:14,564 --> 01:01:16,324
that is evidence of the fact

805
01:01:16,324 --> 01:01:18,544
that people are willing to sell their goods and service

806
01:01:18,544 --> 01:01:20,624
for less and less money.

807
01:01:21,444 --> 01:01:22,844
That they wouldn't do that

808
01:01:22,844 --> 01:01:26,064
if they didn't have an incentive to do that, right?

809
01:01:26,844 --> 01:01:30,364
And that there is nothing that precludes

810
01:01:30,364 --> 01:01:36,804
a fixed supply currency that is neutral with the creation of credit.

811
01:01:37,404 --> 01:01:42,324
All it eliminates, or the viability of credit for that matter,

812
01:01:42,844 --> 01:01:45,704
all it eliminates is the ability to bail out banks

813
01:01:45,704 --> 01:01:53,304
if banks lend money and can't return it to the depositors

814
01:01:53,304 --> 01:01:57,404
or then the shareholders after the depositors.

815
01:01:57,404 --> 01:02:00,544
and so the way that I think about it is

816
01:02:00,544 --> 01:02:02,384
and to compare with the fiat system

817
01:02:02,384 --> 01:02:04,184
because it is really difficult

818
01:02:04,184 --> 01:02:07,164
in the fiat brain world

819
01:02:07,164 --> 01:02:11,044
because the fiat world exists so far detached

820
01:02:11,044 --> 01:02:13,224
from any semblance of reality

821
01:02:13,224 --> 01:02:16,804
that like if the Fed system has

822
01:02:16,804 --> 01:02:20,544
six to seven trillion of base money

823
01:02:20,544 --> 01:02:21,984
in it right now

824
01:02:21,984 --> 01:02:25,004
there are like 105 trillion

825
01:02:25,004 --> 01:02:29,124
of dollar-denominated debt that exists.

826
01:02:29,764 --> 01:02:31,304
Like excluding, we're not talking about

827
01:02:31,304 --> 01:02:33,624
unfunded pension liabilities or derivatives,

828
01:02:34,684 --> 01:02:38,664
just government debt, state, local, federal,

829
01:02:39,304 --> 01:02:43,004
credit card debt, auto loans, student loans,

830
01:02:43,264 --> 01:02:45,024
mortgages, vanilla debt,

831
01:02:45,164 --> 01:02:46,724
things that are not preferred equity,

832
01:02:47,304 --> 01:02:50,584
things that have a fixed maturity

833
01:02:50,584 --> 01:02:52,344
and a fixed liability.

834
01:02:52,344 --> 01:02:56,244
well how in the world

835
01:02:56,244 --> 01:02:59,524
could the credit system

836
01:02:59,524 --> 01:03:01,604
the amount of debt be 105

837
01:03:01,604 --> 01:03:04,664
but all the money that exists is only 6 or 7

838
01:03:04,664 --> 01:03:08,564
that functionally means that the same dollar

839
01:03:08,564 --> 01:03:10,344
has been lent out

840
01:03:10,344 --> 01:03:15,604
16, 17 times

841
01:03:15,604 --> 01:03:18,924
that

842
01:03:18,924 --> 01:03:41,344
But because that is the system that exists today, where the credit system is actually larger than the amount of money that exists, which only exists because the Fed introduced dollars and prevented the entire credit system from restructuring and shrinking for 50 years.

843
01:03:41,344 --> 01:03:46,304
like it was turbocharged at the time of the financial crisis and the credit creation has

844
01:03:46,304 --> 01:03:50,444
accelerated as a function of all the dollars that they put into the system in the great financial

845
01:03:50,444 --> 01:03:57,324
crisis and then again in 2020 but but they were doing the same thing functionally in the 80s 90s

846
01:03:57,324 --> 01:04:04,364
early 2000s before the financial crisis that the only way that that could get to that extreme of

847
01:04:04,364 --> 01:04:12,744
there being 15 times to 17 times the amount of debt than the money in a world where you can create

848
01:04:12,744 --> 01:04:20,644
money and bail bad debt out. So the way that I see the Bitcoin world working is there's 21 million

849
01:04:20,644 --> 01:04:27,844
Bitcoin. All Bitcoin are always being saved by everybody. And some of those people are going to

850
01:04:27,844 --> 01:04:33,364
be 70 years old, 80 years old, 90 years old. Some of them are going to be 20 years old coming into

851
01:04:33,364 --> 01:04:37,784
the economy and they don't have any money and they're working. Well, in that world where everyone's

852
01:04:37,784 --> 01:04:43,504
on a Bitcoin standard, the opportunity for Bitcoin to increase by a factor of 10 when everybody's

853
01:04:43,504 --> 01:04:48,724
in this world, Bitcoin's the pricing mechanism. You're not just paying for things in Bitcoin.

854
01:04:49,084 --> 01:04:54,944
The ribeye is priced in Bitcoin or sats. The gas at the gas station is priced in sats.

855
01:04:55,904 --> 01:05:01,284
You're not thinking about a fiat price of Bitcoin. Well, in that world, Bitcoin's going to be,

856
01:05:01,284 --> 01:05:07,564
you know in a year it might lose a percentage or two if there's some contraction in the economy

857
01:05:07,564 --> 01:05:15,244
but more likely as it's going to be increasing in purchasing power as um as productivity

858
01:05:15,244 --> 01:05:21,104
increases as people are willing to sell the same good for less money because they're able to

859
01:05:21,104 --> 01:05:28,224
produce it more efficiently at less cost you know that's like saying like you know back when i was a

860
01:05:28,224 --> 01:05:37,144
child or a young adult when a beer was a dollar, say, rather than $8 today or whatever it is.

861
01:05:37,144 --> 01:05:52,616
It like a beer going from a dollar to 99 cents the next year Well in that world where money is appreciating and say that if there 21 million Bitcoin

862
01:05:53,236 --> 01:05:56,136
the amount of Bitcoin that's lent out

863
01:05:56,136 --> 01:05:59,676
is likely going to be a fraction of the 21 million.

864
01:06:00,136 --> 01:06:03,836
So let's say that 10% of the Bitcoin are lent out,

865
01:06:03,896 --> 01:06:05,976
but not like lent out to do some trading scheme.

866
01:06:06,296 --> 01:06:08,396
It's like, hey, I'm going to lend you this money

867
01:06:08,396 --> 01:06:11,016
and you go build a building,

868
01:06:11,136 --> 01:06:11,676
start a business,

869
01:06:11,876 --> 01:06:12,876
a business, whatever.

870
01:06:13,396 --> 01:06:17,236
Well, if 10% of Bitcoin are lent out,

871
01:06:17,856 --> 01:06:19,576
say 2.1 million,

872
01:06:21,156 --> 01:06:22,256
and I know there are lost coins,

873
01:06:22,376 --> 01:06:24,196
but let's just use the example.

874
01:06:24,656 --> 01:06:28,716
Well, the 21 million minus 2.1,

875
01:06:28,976 --> 01:06:32,076
the 18.9 million,

876
01:06:32,256 --> 01:06:33,596
that's the market of growth

877
01:06:33,596 --> 01:06:36,056
of who you're serving with that business.

878
01:06:36,496 --> 01:06:38,076
And so, yeah, Bitcoin's,

879
01:06:38,396 --> 01:06:44,836
you know, would be appreciating by productivity gains, but, and some businesses would fail and

880
01:06:44,836 --> 01:06:48,776
not be able to, you know, repay loans similar to how it existed on a gold standard, right?

881
01:06:49,176 --> 01:06:57,296
Not all loans were repaid, um, but economic activity flourished. So, um, now would there

882
01:06:57,296 --> 01:07:03,336
be a world where like you had 21 million Bitcoin and the amount of debt in the system was 200

883
01:07:03,336 --> 01:07:11,896
million Bitcoin? No, because the businesses that have those loans would fail and there couldn't

884
01:07:11,896 --> 01:07:17,596
be any bailouts. But it's not hard to imagine if you're thinking in that Bitcoin-denominated world

885
01:07:17,596 --> 01:07:25,456
and seeing the credit system as going back to its utility of productive capital formation,

886
01:07:25,456 --> 01:07:30,216
like actual capital, building a plant, building a manufacturing facility,

887
01:07:30,936 --> 01:07:36,996
building telecom infrastructure, or building satellites, whatever people are building,

888
01:07:37,416 --> 01:07:42,836
that if the amount of debt that exists is a fraction of the total supply,

889
01:07:43,236 --> 01:07:49,616
that your growth of that money base that's lent is all the other Bitcoin.

890
01:07:49,616 --> 01:07:56,316
because you're doing it, you know, you're speculating in some business to drive growth.

891
01:07:56,756 --> 01:08:01,256
And the rate of interest would likely be, you know, the way it used to work was that,

892
01:08:01,256 --> 01:08:06,196
you know, if the economy was growing at 8%, say if productivity gains were 8%,

893
01:08:06,196 --> 01:08:13,736
then like the most secure loan would be, you know, something underneath the rate of growth of the economic system.

894
01:08:13,736 --> 01:08:19,776
and that it all would be in harmony in that world.

895
01:08:19,836 --> 01:08:22,116
So I don't know if that helps from a context

896
01:08:22,116 --> 01:08:23,496
to see how, you know.

897
01:08:24,256 --> 01:08:25,456
No, it definitely helps.

898
01:08:26,296 --> 01:08:27,916
This is an impossible question to answer

899
01:08:27,916 --> 01:08:29,176
and I always ask it to you,

900
01:08:29,356 --> 01:08:32,436
but when do you think we do go from the gradually

901
01:08:32,436 --> 01:08:34,756
to the suddenly and end up in this world you're talking about?

902
01:08:34,796 --> 01:08:35,736
Do you think it'll be in our lifetime?

903
01:08:36,156 --> 01:08:37,556
Yeah, I hope it.

904
01:08:37,636 --> 01:08:39,656
I mean, like, hope, you know,

905
01:08:39,936 --> 01:08:41,896
we could get hit by a bus tomorrow.

906
01:08:41,896 --> 01:08:50,376
hopefully that doesn't happen but we if we live to the average lifespan of you know people in our

907
01:08:50,376 --> 01:08:54,936
countries it will be in our lifetime i don't know exactly you know there might be a lot of pain that

908
01:08:54,936 --> 01:09:03,576
happens along the way as fiat hyper inflates i don't view it as we're just gonna seamlessly

909
01:09:03,576 --> 01:09:09,796
transition from a world of excess and a bunch of zombie companies and a bunch of bad debts

910
01:09:09,796 --> 01:09:12,716
to a Bitcoin standard

911
01:09:12,716 --> 01:09:17,996
without economic volatility and dislocations.

912
01:09:18,256 --> 01:09:19,616
But yeah, I mean,

913
01:09:20,296 --> 01:09:23,616
I continue to believe that this is like a,

914
01:09:24,516 --> 01:09:27,196
you know, if we had this conversation two years ago,

915
01:09:27,216 --> 01:09:28,196
I would have said 10 years.

916
01:09:28,736 --> 01:09:31,116
If I'm, you know, keeping myself honest,

917
01:09:31,116 --> 01:09:32,136
I'll now say eight years

918
01:09:32,136 --> 01:09:33,256
because I would have said 10 years,

919
01:09:33,376 --> 01:09:34,636
but nothing's changed about that.

920
01:09:36,096 --> 01:09:39,596
And, you know, I added up to the amount of money

921
01:09:39,596 --> 01:09:49,796
that they're going to have to print the unsustainability of inflation as it exists today.

922
01:09:52,376 --> 01:09:57,116
Artificially manipulating interest rates higher doesn't make it cheaper to get oil out of

923
01:09:57,116 --> 01:09:58,576
the ground or to produce food.

924
01:10:00,276 --> 01:10:07,276
And so what people have found in the Keynesian view of economics, the raising of interest

925
01:10:07,276 --> 01:10:08,756
rates should have brought inflation down.

926
01:10:08,756 --> 01:10:26,276
And it might be bringing the price of houses down, but it doesn't make the production of any good cheaper. And the lion's share of people in the economic systems in the developed world are struggling to get by as it is.

927
01:10:26,276 --> 01:10:50,236
And so I don't know how with all the money that they're going to have to print to sustain the credit system, the fundamentals of Bitcoin being as strong as they've ever been in terms of like the amount of development that's happening at the wallet level, the multi-sig custody level, the payments level, the mining side.

928
01:10:50,236 --> 01:10:54,216
that, you know, now on the mining side,

929
01:10:54,276 --> 01:10:55,636
there is a big secular shift happening

930
01:10:55,636 --> 01:10:59,236
where a bunch of large miners that are unprofitable

931
01:10:59,236 --> 01:11:00,696
are pivoting to AI.

932
01:11:01,836 --> 01:11:04,996
But there's continuing to be innovation

933
01:11:04,996 --> 01:11:07,116
to drive the price of a hash down,

934
01:11:07,216 --> 01:11:09,316
which will, you know, ultimately drive the price

935
01:11:09,316 --> 01:11:10,896
of Bitcoin-denominated energy down.

936
01:11:11,456 --> 01:11:13,196
All of that, the fundamentals,

937
01:11:13,476 --> 01:11:15,836
it is, we might, I don't know if this was on,

938
01:11:16,456 --> 01:11:17,776
you know, we might have been talking about this

939
01:11:17,776 --> 01:11:18,976
off-screen before we came on,

940
01:11:18,976 --> 01:11:24,156
But it's like the sentiment has never been worse for my 10 years around Bitcoin.

941
01:11:25,356 --> 01:11:27,836
The fundamentals of Bitcoin have never been better.

942
01:11:28,716 --> 01:11:32,036
And those two things are true at the same time.

943
01:11:32,216 --> 01:11:38,996
And I think that there's also, in my view, there also never was an adoption wave since 2021.

944
01:11:39,536 --> 01:11:43,736
And the next one will be particularly large because of that.

945
01:11:43,736 --> 01:11:47,616
but that if Bitcoin increases,

946
01:11:48,516 --> 01:11:50,856
if adoption increases by 10 times,

947
01:11:51,816 --> 01:11:55,776
then Bitcoin is, you know,

948
01:11:56,456 --> 01:11:58,696
10 trillion to the,

949
01:11:59,176 --> 01:12:02,316
or 12 trillion to the broadest definition of dollars

950
01:12:02,316 --> 01:12:05,036
is like 25 trillion-ish today.

951
01:12:05,596 --> 01:12:08,136
If Bitcoin demand in the next eight years

952
01:12:08,136 --> 01:12:09,456
increases by 20 times,

953
01:12:10,116 --> 01:12:12,996
and I think about that in terms of like,

954
01:12:13,736 --> 01:12:16,856
If the number of people that actually understand Bitcoin is 0.1%,

955
01:12:16,856 --> 01:12:19,396
if that grows to 2% in the next year,

956
01:12:19,496 --> 01:12:22,916
what's more likely, that we get to 2% in the next eight years or not?

957
01:12:23,456 --> 01:12:26,636
And that they're going to have to print trillions upon trillions of dollars?

958
01:12:26,636 --> 01:12:30,496
That Bitcoin becomes in that time period,

959
01:12:30,656 --> 01:12:44,308
with two more halving events of the Bitcoin network continuing to enforce its fixed supply knowledge distributing at an accelerating pace the Bitcoin becomes as large or the clear second

960
01:12:44,308 --> 01:12:48,068
in terms of size of the currency system.

961
01:12:48,228 --> 01:12:52,868
And I don't mean by like a little spike up.

962
01:12:52,868 --> 01:12:57,508
I mean like at an equilibrium where I can hold a price like it's holding this price of

963
01:12:57,508 --> 01:13:05,568
you know 64k for a long period of time that um that wouldn't be when when it's clear that bitcoin

964
01:13:05,568 --> 01:13:10,628
is either the largest currency system in the world or the second largest that's where i think you see

965
01:13:10,628 --> 01:13:18,648
the um the wheels come off the fiat bus truly and and people instinctually move into bitcoin without

966
01:13:18,648 --> 01:13:24,968
having to have a intellectual conversation but um move into bitcoin to use bitcoin because it's the

967
01:13:24,968 --> 01:13:29,228
only form of money that's working, much like people pick up the telephone without thinking

968
01:13:29,228 --> 01:13:29,568
about it.

969
01:13:30,608 --> 01:13:31,748
I'm here for it, man.

970
01:13:31,908 --> 01:13:34,068
I hope we do see it in our lifetime.

971
01:13:34,188 --> 01:13:35,288
I'd be very disappointed if not.

972
01:13:35,348 --> 01:13:38,248
I hope this isn't like the quantum thing where it's always 10 years away.

973
01:13:39,528 --> 01:13:45,268
No, I mean, well, you know, quantum needs to achieve things that are theoretically possible

974
01:13:45,268 --> 01:13:47,808
and Bitcoin only has to do the exact same thing.

975
01:13:48,448 --> 01:13:52,448
I mean, realistically, more infrastructure needs to be built out.

976
01:13:52,448 --> 01:13:59,408
but from a fundamental of the validation

977
01:13:59,408 --> 01:14:01,508
of the base money

978
01:14:01,508 --> 01:14:03,768
and the enforcement of the fixed supply

979
01:14:03,768 --> 01:14:05,088
it doesn't have to do anything different.

980
01:14:06,308 --> 01:14:06,428
Yeah.

981
01:14:07,948 --> 01:14:09,288
To close out Parker

982
01:14:09,288 --> 01:14:10,668
you should tell everyone who's listening

983
01:14:10,668 --> 01:14:12,708
who wants to start taking Bitcoin as payments

984
01:14:12,708 --> 01:14:14,508
how they can find out about ZapRite.

985
01:14:14,788 --> 01:14:16,008
I use it every single month

986
01:14:16,008 --> 01:14:17,048
and it's fucking awesome.

987
01:14:17,048 --> 01:14:18,768
I was just going to ask for a testimonial.

988
01:14:19,668 --> 01:14:22,188
No, it makes my life so easy.

989
01:14:22,448 --> 01:14:23,748
I invoice everyone through ZapRite.

990
01:14:24,168 --> 01:14:26,288
I still don't do the discount in Bitcoin,

991
01:14:26,428 --> 01:14:27,228
but I need to do that.

992
01:14:27,508 --> 01:14:28,668
But everyone has the option to pay in Bitcoin.

993
01:14:28,668 --> 01:14:29,608
But what about for cheat code?

994
01:14:31,168 --> 01:14:33,008
Well, that actually worked really well

995
01:14:33,008 --> 01:14:35,288
because we had such a janky ticket setup

996
01:14:35,288 --> 01:14:36,848
the years before, before we used ZapRite,

997
01:14:37,028 --> 01:14:39,888
where people would have to pay with Bitcoin.

998
01:14:40,028 --> 01:14:41,388
We'd have to verify the transaction

999
01:14:41,388 --> 01:14:42,788
and go in and issue them a ticket.

1000
01:14:43,288 --> 01:14:44,888
Using ZapRite was super straightforward.

1001
01:14:45,288 --> 01:14:45,548
Awesome.

1002
01:14:46,908 --> 01:14:49,708
And when we use it next year for cheat code,

1003
01:14:49,888 --> 01:14:51,988
I mean, we did a discount for Bitcoin this time.

1004
01:14:52,448 --> 01:14:56,768
And I think we're going to do something a little bit more interesting this year if we do cheat code.

1005
01:14:56,868 --> 01:14:57,888
We've not quite announced it yet.

1006
01:14:58,268 --> 01:14:58,328
Okay.

1007
01:14:58,508 --> 01:14:59,288
Well, I hope it happens.

1008
01:14:59,388 --> 01:15:00,548
I hope I can make it this year.

1009
01:15:02,208 --> 01:15:06,428
Honestly, from my view in the States, it looks like a phenomenal event.

1010
01:15:07,028 --> 01:15:13,948
But yeah, for anybody, whether it's a podcast, for people hosting Bitcoin events, we have a full ticket suite.

1011
01:15:14,348 --> 01:15:16,048
I appreciate you plugging that.

1012
01:15:16,528 --> 01:15:17,928
We love supporting you on that.

1013
01:15:17,928 --> 01:15:23,328
But at ZapRite, we're bringing Bitcoin fiat into one platform.

1014
01:15:23,628 --> 01:15:24,648
It's Bitcoin native.

1015
01:15:25,248 --> 01:15:26,688
We meet everybody where they are.

1016
01:15:27,588 --> 01:15:33,368
We support non-custodial solutions on both on-chain as well as Lightning, but we also have custodial solutions.

1017
01:15:34,348 --> 01:15:35,928
And we're really just helping anybody.

1018
01:15:36,748 --> 01:15:38,488
We really focus on people who already understand Bitcoin.

1019
01:15:38,488 --> 01:15:41,608
and so I just encourage people that

1020
01:15:41,608 --> 01:15:43,788
if they are running a business

1021
01:15:43,788 --> 01:15:45,828
and they grok Bitcoin

1022
01:15:45,828 --> 01:15:47,608
they understand why Bitcoin stores value

1023
01:15:47,608 --> 01:15:50,228
that whether it's with ZapRite

1024
01:15:50,228 --> 01:15:51,088
or somebody else

1025
01:15:51,088 --> 01:15:52,648
it's like if people come through ZapRite

1026
01:15:52,648 --> 01:15:53,948
and they're better off with Square

1027
01:15:53,948 --> 01:15:56,068
given the nature of Square Suite

1028
01:15:56,068 --> 01:15:56,868
and their type of business

1029
01:15:56,868 --> 01:15:57,788
we send them straight to Square

1030
01:15:57,788 --> 01:15:59,948
but my message to people is that

1031
01:15:59,948 --> 01:16:02,148
if you understand Bitcoin

1032
01:16:02,148 --> 01:16:04,208
and you're a key person

1033
01:16:04,208 --> 01:16:06,108
in the operations of a business

1034
01:16:06,108 --> 01:16:07,008
or if you own a business

1035
01:16:07,008 --> 01:16:12,368
I would very much encourage you to evaluate your options in Bitcoin payments.

1036
01:16:12,448 --> 01:16:14,068
We'd love to support you at ZapRite.

1037
01:16:14,208 --> 01:16:18,088
If you go into zaprite.com, which is Z-A-P-R-I-T-E.com,

1038
01:16:18,208 --> 01:16:22,308
and submit a contact form, I'd be the person that helps figure out

1039
01:16:22,308 --> 01:16:24,768
if we're the right solution or help create a solution for you with us.

1040
01:16:25,288 --> 01:16:26,308
We'd love to support you.

1041
01:16:26,348 --> 01:16:28,868
We've got an API for custom-built websites.

1042
01:16:29,388 --> 01:16:30,948
Our ticket solution is great that Danny uses.

1043
01:16:31,128 --> 01:16:34,548
Invoices are a really popular tool.

1044
01:16:34,548 --> 01:16:58,488
So, yeah, just chopping wood. And, you know, in my view, it's get back to basics that stacks, you know, stay humble and stack sats. I think Bitcoin is better than, you know, buying stock in a treasury company. And, you know, not everybody has to accept Bitcoin as payment today. Not everyone has to pay for their Bitcoin. If people only have 1% of their savings in Bitcoin, you got too much fiat, you need to keep rabbit holing Bitcoin.

1045
01:16:58,488 --> 01:17:01,628
But that is also the light at the end of the tunnel.

1046
01:17:01,828 --> 01:17:02,408
It's the end game.

1047
01:17:02,608 --> 01:17:10,588
And so I encourage people that are further down their journey to put in the effort to make that investment and will pay off for people.

1048
01:17:11,968 --> 01:17:18,008
The best thing about ZapRite is we had a little quirk when we were trying to launch the tickets and I emailed you and the fix was done overnight.

1049
01:17:18,328 --> 01:17:19,868
So that's pretty good as well.

1050
01:17:19,888 --> 01:17:26,328
That's the power of, you know, working with a Bitcoin company and we treat everybody with that same.

1051
01:17:26,328 --> 01:17:30,908
It's like if there is an issue, we solve it, but it's also the beauty of AI.

1052
01:17:31,228 --> 01:17:37,488
It's like everyone talks about AI and about how AI sucked the air out of the Bitcoin balloon.

1053
01:17:37,588 --> 01:17:38,768
It's like, well, they solve two different problems.

1054
01:17:38,848 --> 01:17:42,288
Bitcoin's money and AI needs money too.

1055
01:17:42,808 --> 01:17:46,768
But it also accelerates the development of Bitcoin applications.

1056
01:17:47,088 --> 01:17:52,688
And our team on the engineering side, Nate, our CTO, and all of our engineers have really leaned into that side.

1057
01:17:52,688 --> 01:18:01,748
So we're able to really lock in and deliver high value features in a fast, efficient way.

1058
01:18:01,908 --> 01:18:07,528
So our customers like you, Danny, are the best sources of feedback of what they need.

1059
01:18:08,628 --> 01:18:13,988
Because if someone needs them like you, then 10 other customers do or 100 other customers do.

1060
01:18:14,288 --> 01:18:15,988
So we appreciate getting that feedback.

1061
01:18:16,708 --> 01:18:17,688
Yeah, it's awesome.

1062
01:18:17,768 --> 01:18:19,568
If you run a business, check out Zapri.

1063
01:18:19,868 --> 01:18:20,828
Thank you, Parker.

1064
01:18:21,028 --> 01:18:21,948
Appreciate your time.

1065
01:18:21,948 --> 01:18:23,128
we've got to do it again

1066
01:18:23,128 --> 01:18:24,088
I'm going to come to Austin soon

1067
01:18:24,088 --> 01:18:24,928
we're not the one in person

1068
01:18:24,928 --> 01:18:25,528
in a long time

1069
01:18:25,528 --> 01:18:25,828
yeah

1070
01:18:25,828 --> 01:18:26,988
you come to Austin

1071
01:18:26,988 --> 01:18:28,048
I'll get over to

1072
01:18:28,048 --> 01:18:29,008
wherever you are

1073
01:18:29,008 --> 01:18:30,028
whether it's at Cheat Code

1074
01:18:30,028 --> 01:18:30,708
or you know

1075
01:18:30,708 --> 01:18:31,448
further away

1076
01:18:31,448 --> 01:18:32,468
across the world

1077
01:18:32,468 --> 01:18:32,988
yeah Cheat Code

1078
01:18:32,988 --> 01:18:33,568
next year

1079
01:18:33,568 --> 01:18:34,808
I think we're going to do it

1080
01:18:34,808 --> 01:18:35,588
but there'll probably be

1081
01:18:35,588 --> 01:18:36,428
an announcement very soon

1082
01:18:36,428 --> 01:18:37,448
well

1083
01:18:37,448 --> 01:18:39,048
good luck to England tomorrow

1084
01:18:39,048 --> 01:18:41,248
I think we're going to do it man

1085
01:18:41,248 --> 01:18:41,888
did you see Spain

1086
01:18:41,888 --> 01:18:43,188
just beat France

1087
01:18:43,188 --> 01:18:44,668
I actually didn't

1088
01:18:44,668 --> 01:18:45,928
I watched the first half

1089
01:18:45,928 --> 01:18:47,828
so Spain beat France

1090
01:18:47,828 --> 01:18:48,308
I think

1091
01:18:48,308 --> 01:18:49,068
the only way

1092
01:18:49,068 --> 01:18:49,808
we were ever going to win

1093
01:18:49,808 --> 01:18:50,428
this World Cup

1094
01:18:50,428 --> 01:18:51,988
is if Spain beat France.

1095
01:18:52,068 --> 01:18:53,208
I don't think we could have beaten France,

1096
01:18:53,328 --> 01:18:54,788
but I think we got a shot.

1097
01:18:54,868 --> 01:18:57,008
Was it 1-0 or did they each end up getting-

1098
01:18:57,008 --> 01:18:57,248
2-0.

1099
01:18:57,568 --> 01:18:58,268
Oh, well, okay.

1100
01:18:58,728 --> 01:18:58,988
Yeah.

1101
01:18:59,608 --> 01:19:00,988
So just Argentina's get through,

1102
01:19:01,088 --> 01:19:02,388
but I think we're going to do it.

1103
01:19:02,988 --> 01:19:03,208
All right.

1104
01:19:03,388 --> 01:19:03,688
Fingers crossed.

1105
01:19:03,888 --> 01:19:04,748
This might age like milk,

1106
01:19:04,888 --> 01:19:05,488
but thank you, Parker.

1107
01:19:05,688 --> 01:19:06,768
Keep my fingers crossed for you.

1108
01:19:07,508 --> 01:19:08,068
See you, man.

1109
01:19:08,268 --> 01:19:08,868
All right, see you.

1110
01:19:20,428 --> 01:19:50,408
Thank you.