Everyone should have the right to have sound money that is not debased, that allows them
the ability to have censorship-resistant money and seizure-resistant money. When you look at
all of the other options from an investment perspective, and you boil that down to what
the upside is for Bitcoin over the next 10 years, which I still believe we've got 100x in front of
in the next 10 years, Bitcoin becomes undeniable.
And that word again is going to pop up
when Bitcoin breaks an all-time high
in the next however long it takes.
There's going to be a lot of capital on the sidelines
that is going to chase that.
And that's where we'll see a real pop.
Peter Dunworth back on the show,
the most bullish man in Bitcoin.
Price is down, sentiment is shot.
This is why I need to talk to you right now.
You're the most bullish man that I ever speak to.
How are you doing, man?
Life is beautiful.
Always is.
What's your take on this whole market right now?
I think in a word, it would be testing.
I think this is a period of time for Bitcoin that is different.
It's unlike any other time that we've had.
I think Bitcoiners have been very fortunate that they have had the fastest horse for the
last 15 years.
and this little startup called AI has come and taken that crown as the fastest horse.
And I think it's causing a lot of doubts for people who were here for the number go up,
but don't understand what that really is.
It's really freedom go up technology as one of our good mates Alex Gladstein talks of.
And this is where I think in this type of market,
it's really important to understand from a first principles perspective,
what you own, why you own it and what you want to do with it.
And this is where recent changes to Bitcoin or recent developments in Bitcoin like the ETF and the treasury companies and the rest of it really sort of blurs that line to what Bitcoin's initial value proposition was, which was sovereign money, money you basically can't mess with.
and the last two years a lot of attention has been distracted from Bitcoin to talk about the
Bitcoin proxies which was the ETFs and the treasury companies and the whole value proposition of owning
and self-custodying Bitcoin I think has sort of been lost in the wash with the marketing attempts
for the treasury companies and the ETFs but in moments like this I think it's really important
to go back to well what was that value proposition? It was about sound money that was censorship
resistant, seizure resistant with absolute digital scarcity. And in times like this,
when it's really bearish, I go back to that and think, has any of those values changed?
Have any of those values been compromised? And at this point in time, I look at that and say,
no, no, no. So for me, it's a massive tick of approval for an opportunity to buy at really
discounted prices when sentiment is actually like, I've never seen it this bad because of
those factors I talked about. It's a very different psychological condition for most Bitcoiners that
haven't gone through this. We've never had to deal with it before. But if the value proposition of
Bitcoin is still intact, then I haven't seen a better buying opportunity than where we are right
now. Yeah, I think one of the reasons that sentiment has been so bad is like if you compare
it to the crash, like the FTX crash, the bottom of last cycle, there was a very clear reason.
There was like out and out fraud that had been happening, which had an impact across the entire
market you knew why bitcoin was crashing and like you say the the fundamental value of bitcoin had
nothing had changed so therefore like it's quite easy to hold through that whereas this time it
feels like we've had a crash and it's like you can kind of blame it on iran but then we didn't
perform that well last year compared to things like gold and silver and it's like it's hard to
point point out why we're at where we are right now and it's also hard to point out why we'll go
up again because like we always had the thing that was coming next which was like etfs or or whatever
but it's like what's next like we've got countries that buy bitcoin we've got etfs like unless we
just go to bigger and bigger countries like who's the buyer but i also think that's why whenever we
do break through the next all-time high it's like we don't need a reason and if we don't have a
reason that's even more powerful i agree wholeheartedly on that and i caught up with our
mate check um just yesterday talking about this when it goes through the next all-time high
all of this negative sentiment, I think, will go by the wayside. And the word I think would be best
to describe that is Bitcoin will then become undeniable. There won't be a reason for it to
break all-time highs. It's just going to chug along. It's going to bore us to death. It'll
break new all-time highs. We'll be back there. Everyone will be looking around for narrative to
spin. Oh, is there a strategic Bitcoin reserve? Has there been basically a large company that's
you know, talking of buying it, a nation state's now mining it, like whatever the narrative is,
I think price creates narrative. We're going to look for stories to explain what's happening.
And we're just going to come to the point where, you know, absolute digital scarcity meets demand,
and it's just going to create a completely new paradigm. And this is where it's probably very
un-PC to talk about this at this point in time where cinema's so bad, but I'm like,
So when unlimited demand meets a vertical supply curve, prices have to go up.
And this is where I still don't put out of contention basically a vertical price rise in this.
And if I can give you an example as to why I'm still hoping, well, I'm positive that that can happen in the next five or 10 years is,
if you look at markets and market structure, everyone wants to say, oh, no, prices go up, it reverts to mean and all the rest of it.
I'm like, yes, that's true, but we've never had absolute digital scarcity before.
And if I look at the most egregious example of this just price spike in a traditional market
that's had hundreds of years experience, have a look at the nickel trade from March 2022,
where literally nickel prices went up 300% in 24 hours.
And I look at that and I'm like, nickel, it's so innocuous.
It's so available.
There's no limitation on how much you can mine on this.
and in the space of 24 hours, it went up 300%, maybe more. I'm like, well, I know Bitcoin's a
little scarcer than that. I know it's far more valuable than nickel. What happens when the world
figures that out? And this is where the omega candle that Samson loves talking about. I agree,
at some point in time, we're going to see this. And this is where I think days like this and
months like this that we've been through are just going to go by the wayside. And the problem with
owning Bitcoin is that you need to hold it for a long period of time. There's no predetermined
periods where you can get in and out on a daily or monthly basis that's going to outperform.
And if you miss that type of candle, you've just blown your entire time in Bitcoin.
And that's the hard thing, I think.
100%. So do you disagree with the idea that we're going to have diminishing returns as these
sort of cycles continue?
100%. Yeah. Because as you build out the credit markets on the back of it, and this is where
a lot of the criticism of what I talk about comes in the form of people really don't understand how
price is determined at the margin. And this is where when you lock away self-custody Bitcoin
and it's not available on the market, you can't re-hypothecate it, then there is only one thing
that happens when those market conditions are in place. And that's where what we're going to see is
the power law is flattening out. And I agree that that is a real thing. But what I actually think,
and I haven't seen anyone talk about this, Wicked Smart's probably done some great visuals on this
where it's actually going to be more like an S-curve where it flattens out like that and then
it starts increasing in exponential returns through time. So it's going to be a reverse power law
to the upside where returns start flattening and then they start steepening through time when people
really understand what this thing is. But that confidence to talk about that really only comes
from an understanding, a deep understanding of what Bitcoin is.
And I actually think Bitcoin is a need, not a want.
And when 8 billion people figure that out, they're going to want Bitcoin, not the fiat
money that basically the US is trying to distribute globally and disrupt money supplies.
Why do you think it's a need, not a want?
I think it is a need, not a want, because everyone should have the right to have sound money that is not debased, that allows them the ability to have censorship-resistant money and seizure-resistant money.
And Bitcoin is the only money that offers those qualities that I'm aware of.
yeah it's i wonder if we get back to bitcoin being the hottest trade again um i think we will but
it's hard to figure out how without a narrative forming around it because like narrative in
markets is kind of everything ai has been has definitely had all the wind behind its sails
over the last few years on that and i don't know how we get the attention back and maybe that means
a massive blow up in the like the bubble pops in the ai market but at the same time when like i
imagine that also means Bitcoin price goes down. I'm not sure about that. And let me give you some
anecdotal stories of what's happened in the last month of me talking to clients. We have had,
I've probably spoken multiple different clients, but just some high, high level stuff. Some clients
who have been very successful in that AI trade. And this is if I just take a step back before I
go into this. What I want from the AI trade is I want the AI trade to go exponential. I want that
to be a massive blow-off, like absolute super returns like we've never seen before.
Because what I am assured of, if that happens, is, and this is to my point talking to a number
of clients, they've been very successful in AI, they've made a small fortune in it,
and they're looking around thinking, hey, I'm holding really expensive AI stocks,
I need to rotate, and I want to rotate into something. Bitcoin looks like a monopoly on
sound money. I want to have some exposure there. And so the rotation is going to come.
And because a lot of the AI investors are very tech savvy, they understand what tech looks like,
the previous places that they could put money are no longer there. They can't put their money into
the Mag7. They can't put their money into software stocks because those stocks are the
very stocks that are getting disrupted by the previous investment that they're trying to roll
out and get diversification from. So they're not going to put money into the assets and the
industries that AI has disrupted. They're going to look around and figure out, well,
what's the next thing that I can put money into that is not going to be disrupted by AI,
that's going to be sound, that has a moat, that has a clear market leadership,
that's basically won the race. And I look at this and I think they're going to roll into Bitcoin
and they're going to realize that the total addressable market for Bitcoin is not in the
trillions of dollars, it's quadrillions of dollars. And this is where we're going to have a host of
money roll out from that into Bitcoin. That actually does make a lot of sense to me because
like if I had a lot of money in the AI trade right now, like I would be looking at that in a Bitcoin
denominated way and thinking, when's the best time to get out? And at some point I can actually see
that capital moving across. The reason I said I imagine Bitcoin would perform badly in that
scenario is because it is so correlated to the Nasdaq. I've not actually looked at the stats on
that recently, but it at least was until sort of the back end of last year. It's still highly
correlated. More than the NASDAQ, the software index, basically Bitcoin is more highly correlated
to than the NASDAQ itself. And I look at that and think at some point in time, we're going to have
the dislocation in that correlation. And then we're off to the races. And this is where I think
over the next sort of six to 12 months, we will see a bottoming of price in Bitcoin. And we'll
start to see that those markets have the dislocation that we talk of and want. So they won't be
correlated for long. Do you think the AI trade is already getting overcrowded? I don't know if
you see, I saw a crazy story about a shoe company that I think was a big deal in Silicon Valley.
And then they were struggling, they sold off all their assets and turned into an AI data center
company. That seems like peak top behavior to me. And I just don't know how much longer it's got to
run. I think the demand for computers is going to be high for a long period of time, but it doesn't
mean that the market's not overpricing it right now? Good question. I don't think it is. I think
both things can be true. They don't need to be mutually exclusive. I think we can be in the
early innings of AI. I think we're probably 10 to 15% of the way through the build out.
But at the same time, I think things can be really expensive. I think there are going to be
bottlenecks in certain areas of AI, which are going to be difficult to monetize and they're
going to look like a bubble and they'll get ahead of themselves two or three years ahead of
themselves, but I think we've got another five years of really strong investment in that space.
And the thing that worries me and I guess it boils my confidence in the space at the same time is
it appears to me that AI has been given approval or the endorsement, whether it's explicit or
implicit from the US government that this is something through the Department of Defense that they have to win and it is an existential threat to the US that they will pull whatever money is required into winning that AI race Now if they got
to build out the ability and the infrastructure for the next 25 or 30 years in order to win that
race, they're prepared to do it. And we just need to look at what happened with the internet.
Literally, we're still using internet that was rolled out in the early 2000s. We've only just
digested that ability from the infrastructure that they created there. And I think the same
thing's going to happen with AI. AI models need to get better. Tokens need to become more efficient.
But a big concern for me is around the CapEx cycle of the big AI infrastructure companies in that
all these GPUs have got basically a shelf life, not much longer than shortbread.
And the problem with that is that you're on a continual CapEx cycle that you have to
reinvest huge amounts of money on an ongoing basis just to get a similar return. So are we
going to get it? I don't know. I think we will. Much smarter people are talking about this than I,
but the concern I've got is that you've got a very expensive CapEx cycle with a very short
payoff period that needs to be met. And I just don't know if we're going to get the revenues
right now. I think in the future we will, but that's up for debate at this point in time.
it's um the only reason i would kind of question the idea that this has another five years to run
is i think it's going to get heavily politicized in the next election in the u.s like i don't think
the democrat side like it at all i don't think they like the data centers um i think narratives
will get really skewed around that i agree but there's a lot of money in it and so i think the
the dems are going to change their mind on it and this is where um the dems are going to change
their mind on the Clarity Act as well. Once they realize that once that Clarity Act passes,
they can basically print money like it's going out of fashion and they can pay for all of their
harebrained ideas on both sides of the aisle, Clarity Act gets passed. Maybe no one's explained
it to the Dems in that way yet, but I look at that and think there's going to be a huge amount
of wealth created with this AI and people will pay a lot of money. And for that reason, I think
money talks, look at the incentives, I'll show you the outcomes. The Dems will come around to that
and they won't want anyone else to win that war. Yeah, I guess, especially if they're being pitched
by the deep state, this is a geopolitically important thing to do. I guess that might help.
Just quickly, last thing on AI, have you been following this SpaceX IPO that's coming out?
I think it's Friday. Yes.
See, when I look at that, I think, is that another top signal in the AI thing? Is this going to be
just completely destroyed as soon as it actually APOs?
It looks that way to me, but I think they've been very clever with the way they've
staged the escrow periods. So there's not one escrow period where after 30 days, 90 days,
whatever it is, a lot of the stock comes to market. They have created the ability to stage
that in a much longer cycle. And I just think there's enough demand for that, that I don't think
that will drop significantly. And by significantly, I just want to sort of point out to everyone
listening that significant now means a 50% drop because I think markets are now so much more
volatile than they were previously, particularly around this AI space. So long-term, it's really
hard to bet against Elon. He's been so successful. He's the richest man in the world. He's done so
much for the world. Others would say he's done so much bad for the world. But as a net net,
And I think he's had a great impact on humanity and wants the best for it.
Whether you disagree with it or not is another thing.
But I think he'll find a way to make it profitable and deliver on his promise to make everyone
wealthy.
And it's very hard to bet against the richest man.
I think it's going to be really important to make sure you're on the right timeframe
or you're investing with the same timeframe that he is, if you want to get wealthy doing
that trade.
But for me, there's too much noise around it.
I know too little about it.
So I'll just stick to Bitcoin at a 50 or 60% discount to its all-time highs.
Looks like a better bet to me.
Yeah, I'm with you there.
Why do you think traditional markets have become so volatile?
Like when you watch the AI stocks sort of intraday, they're way more volatile than Bitcoin at this point.
That's a good question.
I think traditional markets were very concerned about the volatility of Bitcoin.
And they thought with the introduction of the ETFs and treasury companies that they were going to tame that volatility of Bitcoin.
But what has actually happened, in fact, is the complete opposite.
What we've seen is the cryptification of the TradFi markets.
Volatility has increased.
All of a sudden, you've got daily swings like you would not believe.
It'd make your eyes bleed.
Have a look at the AI stocks and everything that's happening in that space.
You know, it'd make Bitcoin blush when it comes to volatility.
And I think what we're seeing is we are in a hugely uncertain world right now, geopolitically, politically, macroeconomics, you name it, it's all up for grabs.
There's no real certainty around what we have.
And there is a disruption to the current business models that are making the day-to-day investment that we're used to for value investing become very difficult.
and this is where, if you have a look at, say, Warren Buffett's performance since 2000,
when some laws changed, where he wasn't allowed to get insider information,
the return for Berkshire Hathaway has basically mirrored the S&P 500.
And I look at that and think, well, that kind of says it all.
There's certain parts of the market which are extremely volatile
and they're going to continue to do that
because that represents the growth and opportunity that lays ahead.
And then the traditional space, I think, is going to get disrupted because that traditional space, I think, has huge headwinds ahead of it because over the last 20 years, rather than actually building productive businesses and working on the business, what they've done is they've financially engineered their balance sheets to create a better outcome.
They had this stupid idea from business school, which worked for SharePrize, to have, they
wanted to not have lazy balance sheets.
What they wanted to do is they didn't want to sit on big amounts of cash.
They wanted to basically run really lean.
They wanted to have really high debt levels.
So they could basically say, oh, we've got a really great return on equity.
Look how efficient we are with your capital.
And what the problem with that is, is that when you build up debt on the balance sheet,
it makes you extremely fragile.
from withstanding any sort of monetary hit or downturn in your business.
And so, although it looks really good from a return on equity perspective and look how
great we're growing and all the rest of it, it creates a vulnerability to the success
or long-term success of your business.
Then I think what we're seeing right now is the fragility in the system build up with
those traditional businesses whereby they've over-financialized their balance sheets, they've
been too smart by half and it's now making them vulnerable at a time when AI is coming in and
disrupting these businesses like we've never seen before. And this is where, say, on the day-to-day
when I talk to clients about businesses that want to pay dividends and they want portfolios that
create a dividend income that they can rely on, I don't want to be investing in those types of
companies because they're typically companies with high debt ratios. They've got vulnerable
income streams that I think are going to be disrupted. And the income that the client's
relying on, I don't think they can rely on that for too much longer. And this is where
you really want to focus on total return versus income, because by the time you pay the taxes on
total return, you're going to pay a much smaller amount of tax and you're going to get a much
better outcome from a return perspective. But you've got to be comfortable with watching the
volatility of your portfolio go up and down and not putting your head on the pillow at night
thinking, isn't it wonderful? I've got a 5% treasury note that will never go down. It's like,
no, you need to look at the big picture. You need to understand you're being debased. You need to
understand you're getting ruined from inflation at the same time. And a lot of people, as they get
older, I think they just don't want to deal with that. It's over. Like, just let me have my 5%.
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you were talking about the Clarity Act and you said it allowed to print as much money as possible.
What do you mean? This is something I've not heard before.
Oh, so I've yet to hear people talk about the Clarity Act in this term, but the Clarity Act
will enable the US banks to print as much money as they want and distribute stable coins globally.
Now, what that means is you have a captive buyer for the treasuries that are required to be
purchased to issue stable coins. And when the treasuries are being purchased, that basically
gives the US government the ability to sell the treasuries, which they haven't been able to
successfully, to new buyers. And what this is going to look like, I think, and I'm yet to hear
anyone talk about it in this detail, but it's going to look a lot like the EU's euro that they
developed. So they conglomerated a whole host of European countries, with Germany being the major
manufacturer, France, England, the rest of it. When that came out, what that basically did was
that allowed the Germans to basically sell their goods and make huge amounts of money.
Exports went out the wazoo. They were hugely successful with that because they effectively
lowered the value of their dollar. What that meant was they distributed a lower interest rate to the
poorer economic countries in the EU. But at the same time, that enabled the German manufacturers
to basically take advantage because they had a weaker dollar. Now, I look at that, what ended up
happening was all of the economic development happened in Germany and France, and the rest of
the EU countries basically went by the wayside. The payoff was that they got to access cheap
interest rates from the EU. Great deal. Everyone wins, sort of, but not really. And we're watching
the manifestation of the last 25 years, well, the last 20, yeah, 25 years or so of the euro
come undone now because you're seeing, I guess, disharmony in Germany, France, Greece, you know,
all around, no one's happy in the EU. I look at what we're about to embark on with the Clarity
Act and the stable coins that are basically going to get issued around the world. You've got the US
basically going to issue a global reserve currency that everyone around the world will be happy to
use. And the reason why they'll be happy to use it is because it's far better than what their current
option is. It'll be better than the New Zealand dollar, it'll be better than the Aussie dollar,
it'll be better than the Chinese yuan, although they probably won't let that happen in China.
It'll be better than the euro.
It's going to be better than any other currency.
And what we're going to see is a flood of capital into that stable coin because it's
better than that.
And at the same time, what that's going to do is that's going to disrupt and destabilize
local federal governments because it undermines their ability to print money and do what they
want because the local population is going to want to use a US dollar rather than a peso or anything else So that one of the arguments I totally understand it when you talking about a country
like the obvious example
that everyone always uses Argentina.
They went through periods
of really high inflation.
And so you don't want to save
in the Argentinian peso.
So I get that they would want to save
in the US dollar.
But for me in Australia,
I mean, maybe I'm a weird case
because I don't really save anything in dollars.
I have it all in Bitcoin.
But like...
I wouldn't want to use it as a, like, would you be able to use it as a transactional money?
Like, would I be able to go and buy things with it?
100% you will.
Absolutely.
Why?
Like, what's going to make the coffee shop down the road to accept it?
They're going to mandate it.
It's not a choice of why would you make them accept it.
The coffee shop owner is going to figure out, hang on a second, this US dollar doesn't go down in value.
whereas my local currency goes down 15% to 20% per annum.
The local coffee store is going to mandate a stablecoin payment on it.
The thing that this just kills me with is I wish they would just accept Bitcoin.
We need to push the Bitcoin message further.
So do you think that really is like the start of the death of,
I think there's 180 currencies in the world.
Do you think in 10 years' time we're going to be down to like 20?
Yeah, I do.
And I think they're all going to be...
basically surrogates of the US. And you look at how China works their currency, they've got the
Chinese yuan, which is foreign, and then you've got the onshore dollar, which is the renminbi.
The Chinese run two sets of books. Now, even Blind Freddy can tell you someone running two
sets of books is basically conducting a fraud on you. So the US, and not saying that this is a
fraud or the renminbi is a fraud or whatever, just to get out there and clarify, I don't want to get
sued by anyone. But what the stablecoin looks like is they're going to issue stablecoins and
the stablecoins are going to look like the Chinese yuan. That's going to be the euro dollar for
America. That's going to allow them to control capital flows and be very beneficial to the US.
At the same time, they'll have the onshore US dollar, which will be controlled by the local
banks as well. So all of a sudden, liquidity flows are going to basically be controlled outright
globally by the US. Because the benefit that the US have in that, which Germany never had,
is they don't have to look after all the other states in their union. Germany becomes the big
daddy of the EU and has to share money with Greece and the other failing states, whereas the US doesn't
have to do any of that, but they still get to export their dollar. Is this kind of like the US
just completely dominates in this situation? Yep, 100%. Is that good for the world?
yes and no. I look at, you know, the US has been a pretty good provider as far as a world leader
goes. They've done some shitty stuff, sure, but on the balance of things, they've been
quite tempered with their response to a lot of things. And I think if you asked someone,
would they want the US dollar or their local currency? I think nine out of 10 currencies
would jump at the opportunity to have a US dollar as their stable currency.
The people would, for sure.
The governments might not.
Well, this is going to be the clash that we're going to see.
You're going to have governments try and enforce and ban the US dollar stable coins, and you're
going to have local people want that.
And this is going to cause great friction across the world, I think.
And this is where, although I don't want to endorse the US dollar, I think it's really
important that the US dollar, what I term as, it's better bad.
Yes, it's bad, but it's better than what the alternative is at this point in time.
And the problem is, and this is where I think maybe Bitcoiners, libertarians suffer the
same fate is, unless it's perfect, we don't want to have an improvement.
We will die with the current system rather than say, look, nothing goes from zero to
a thousand.
You have to have incremental forms of improvement.
And I look at this and think, is the US dollar better than, say, the Zimbabwean dollar?
100% it is.
Is it better than the peso?
Yes.
So if we're continually improving that, it just gets us down to a point in time where the future will look like the US dollar and Bitcoin. And truth be told, the beautiful thing about having a US dollar and Bitcoin as the two major currencies globally is that Bitcoin can go up forever when the US dollar exists. But it cannot go up forever exponentially if there's no US dollar.
so i i never know which side of this i fall on whether i think stable coins can help
bitcoin adoption or if they hurt it because like if you're in one of these countries with a poor
currency and you have the option of you know bitcoin or us dollar stable coin like i think
the obvious stepping stone is the stable coin like it makes more sense to you initially and
then people use the idea that like once you're on a stable coin once you're on sort of cryptographic
rails it's easy to get to bitcoin i just don't know if that part's true like i don't know if
this actually delays the adoption of Bitcoin by giving them a better alternative now?
That's a really good question. I'm torn on that too. I don't have an answer,
but one thing I will say from the research I've done is it looks like 20% of all issued stable
coins ends up in Bitcoin. So I look at that and think, well, that's a lot. And although it's not
perfect, it's still better than nothing. And so I look at that and I'm really torn. Like you,
I don't know where to fall on this side of the argument that I think there is benefit to stable
coins. I think at some point in time, having used them personally, I think there's great benefit to
them, particularly for short-term purchases. For long-term savings, I think it's a horrible vehicle,
but for people who need to conduct business, who have got volatile swings in their own currency,
having a stable coin to fall back on for short-term purchases and receivables, accounts payable,
things like that, is wildly beneficial. And this is where, with Bitcoin and its volatility,
I think it's difficult for anyone with less than a 12 to 24 month time period, as far as payments go, to really want to be saving Bitcoin from a short term perspective.
Long term, undefeated.
But that short term use case is very difficult for risk averse people to want to save in Bitcoin.
Totally.
And don't get me wrong.
I think everyone should have the option of having better money.
And I just think Bitcoin is the best money.
But maybe the flip side of that is if they have a slightly more sound money in the US dollar rather than whatever the local currency is, maybe they're able to save better and then maybe they actually have capital to put into Bitcoin.
That I think is a huge thing. And if you look at, say, how I use Bitcoin as a savings tool, all of my savings go into Bitcoin. And I guess the big thing about having that is I don't have the concern about short-term day-to-day fluctuations of Bitcoin, basically because I've sat in it for a long time.
But I've got the equity built in that, that I'm not worried if we have a 10 or 50% drawdown in it.
I understand that's part and parcel of what it is.
But given where we are in the adoption phase, I think less than 5% of the globe has really adopted Bitcoin in any meaningful way.
And I'd actually say it's more like less than 1%.
Yep.
You need time to build up that equity base that you hold in Bitcoin.
and for that reason I think it's really important that you've got a less volatile version of it
aligned in some way shape or form from a cryptographic perspective with Bitcoin that's
not Bitcoin and the stable coin I think it does serve a purpose till everyone's on board it once
everyone's on board it and has had that then that's a different story but we're a long way from that
yeah totally um i mean bitcoin right now is at 62 500 um i actually once when we hit 60 last time i
actually didn't expect us to go back here obviously totally wrong um do you think this is like we are
forming a bottom here do you think we're close to the bottom we have to be just statistically
speaking we've had a 50 drop from where we were um if you go back over the last major crashes for
the last 10 or 15 years, you've typically seen an 80 to 85% drawdown. In a worst case scenario,
we're 50% of the 80% there, so we're more than halfway to the bottom, I think. Do I think it's
going to go much lower than that? I don't. I think we're pretty close to it. If you look at a cost
basis, you look at a whole host of other measures, I can't see it really dropping more than 30% from
here. We're already at a very low rate. We didn't have a huge blow off top. We've come off dramatically.
There's a number of reasons I can give you for why I think we're at great value here. But
typically, I suffer from a very optimistic bias when it comes to Bitcoin. So,
I'm probably not the best person to talk to with that respect because
I always think it has the opportunity to double overnight. So, any opportunity to buy at a 50%
discount to all-time highs looks like a great idea to me yeah i mean i'm the same as you i'm
always way too bullish um but like 30 from here would take us to 44k yeah i just can't see it like
it might happen and if it does cool i'll buy some more bitcoin i just can't see it i just can't see
it happening i mean a great buying opportunity it maybe set set a you know basically a finish your
savings account buy at 45 000 and if it gets there then what a gift but it won't be there for long i
think it'll go down touch it and then you're away it's done you won't see that again it's zero percent
chance i'll have anything in my savings if we go that low yeah but uh and and so on the flip side
like whenever this does turn obviously there's there's a long way to go to even get back to
all-time highs now but do you think the next cycle is just going to be like part and parcel everything
we've had before where it's just a bit higher, like 60% higher, roll over again? Or do you think
the dynamics are going to change? I think they have to change. And like markets always continue
to evolve, it'll be difficult getting a read on what to expect from the future. But I look at the
amount of capital that is going to be sitting on the sidelines. And when we breach all-time highs
for the next time, I think there's going to be latent capital that's just sitting there ready to
ready to move. I think there's a huge, huge market opportunity for stretch and those treasury
companies with their preferred stocks. That's an insatiable market that once we get back to that
all-time high, their balance sheets look absolutely squeaky clean. They're going to get so much
capital driven into those things. That to me could be the tipping point where once those things start
humming, the amount of capital they've got access to, the $300 trillion market, and really it's an
unlimited market because they can just print money to buy it, you're going to see that might
be the tipping point that basically puts Bitcoin in that upward trajectory and we never see it
go back again. Not like this anyway. I know you've been quite heavily following the treasury
marketplace. It's been interesting to see Saylor getting so much heat over the last few weeks.
Do you think that's just bear market things where everyone's angry and looking for someone to blame,
so they're blaming the guy that buys all the Bitcoin? Or do you think there's something deep
to that and you think there is something maybe systemically wrong with it?
Look, I think there could be a bit of truth in all of it, but you know what? I just think it's
sour grapes. Why don't I have 850,000 Bitcoin? Well, I wasn't smart enough, so I just look at
it and I think, really? That's what we're complaining about? The guy who bought 850,000?
Can you imagine being a sailor and all of these done? And you've got to deal with people just
giving you shit for buying Bitcoin. It's like, you just would be like, he must be so reserved
to just stop turning around and saying, what have you done for Bitcoin lately? You know,
he's bought 850,000. He's holding up his end of the bargain. I'm doing my very best to buy as much
of it as I can. Like at some point in time, it's like, hey, that said, you know, these type of,
I think Sailor being attacked in the way he is is really,
it's just case in point of exactly where we are in the market.
Yeah.
And this is where people want to eat each other.
When we're near or at the bottom of a bear market,
people are very unhappy.
People have made decisions.
It's like, look, you can only control the outcomes
for the decisions that you make.
And when people start looking around and attacking others,
typically the problem lies with themselves,
not the person they're attacking. So I think in the middle of a bear market, it's probably best to
be introspective about what you've done rather than look for people to blame. And that's probably
a wider thing, a wider mentality to take through life, which I think will lead to a much happier
existence. Yeah, no, I agree with that. I think it's just classic bear market things. But it was
interesting to see him sell Bitcoin. And I don't know if I've not seen if he's publicly said
anything about why he did that. But do you think it's just to get rid of the notion that they'll
never sell? Yeah. And I think that would be around the S&P 500. If he's made notions around never
sell your Bitcoin, there's probably 10 or 12 tweets that the S&P could turn around and say,
we don believe you going to sell your Bitcoin because here are multiple examples of you tweeting to the world that you never sell your Bitcoin You sell a kidney before you sell your Bitcoin I think was one of his tweets And it like is this really the responsible type CEO or chairman that we want to have in the S 500
And I think what I've seen in the last, say, month is that the S&P 500, that institution, the NASDAQ, what have you,
they really have the power to do whatever they want to do when it comes to breaking the rules
to let people in to that S&P 500. And they've broken rules for SpaceX. They'll probably break
rules for Anthropic and OpenAI to let them straight into the index. And they were very
strict with Sailor and MicroStrategy. And I look at that and think, that's basically where we are
at the moment with the DOD endorsement of AI as an existential threat to the US. So as a country,
they are going to put pressure on everyone doing whatever they can to get that broadly adopted and
integrated into markets. And part of that is basically having a standard buy for the S&P
indexes and the NASDAQ indexes. So interesting how it's a two-tier system, one for Bitcoin and
one for AI. But once that damn bursts, I think it'll be a very different situation.
So the money that goes into it is weighted to the top companies. Where would strategy fall in that
and how big do you think it would be? Good question. I'm not sure where it would fall now.
Last time I looked at it, it would be about 124, but I actually think it's a lot lower than that
now. It'd still make the S&P 500, but where in that, I'd only be guessing, but it's lower than
125. So it's not that. And this is the weird thing about those indexes and what they don't tell you
is that the bigger you are, the more weighting you get and the more passive flows you get,
which reinforces your position in the stack. It's a very strange thing that's been created
with the index investing. And I think there's going to be a come to Jesus moment for the index
funds and the entire industry when it comes to that.
Especially with the AI disruption of loads of those companies, it will be a very harsh
reality they'll have to face at some point, you thought.
Big time.
And a lot of those indexes are really unevenly weighted to the future and that AI trade.
So this is why I think the S&P and the NASDAQ were very keen to make any allowances they
could to have SpaceX immediately into that index, because it'll give them a huge boost
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I'm sure you've had a ton of calls over the past few weeks about Bitcoin.
For anyone that doesn't know, you should explain what you do actually first before we get into this.
Very good.
Well, I run a business called The Bitcoin Advisor.
And what we do is we help people procure and secure their Bitcoin in a form of self-custody.
So Bitcoin and buying Bitcoin is not as easy as you'd think it would be, particularly after being in existence for 15 years.
And a lot of people need help with not only purchasing it, but securing their Bitcoin in a self-custodied manner.
that ensures they're not going to lose it. And this is where there's a big technological leap
that needs to, or learning curve that needs to happen in order to do that safely.
And I'm really proud to say that we help people self-custody their Bitcoin
in a manner that ensures they're not going to lose any of it. And I'm proud to say we've never
lost a Bitcoin with our clients. And we deal with a whole host of clients from baby boomers right
down to teenagers and we help them look after their Bitcoin and secure it not only for themselves,
but for our older clients, probably the biggest concern is not so much the Bitcoiner in the family,
but making sure that they can pass on their Bitcoin if something happens to them, i.e. that
inheritance base that we talk of all the time. And this is where having a number of professionals
help you with your self-custody is actually really beneficial because over the last, say,
10 years giving advice in this space. Sadly, we've dealt with four clients who have passed away,
but I'm really proud and happy to tell you that their beneficiaries got all of their Bitcoin.
Despite not having a clue how to recover it, we were able to help their estate, pass that on to
the beneficiaries, and everyone got the Bitcoin that they were owed with their last, well, their
their fathers or husbands or wives' last will and testament, we've been able to distribute that
and everyone's got their Bitcoin. So I think the consideration with a lot of Bitcoiners is
they think, why would I need help with self-custody? And the Bitcoiners don't need help
with self-custody. Let me tell you, every Bitcoiner listening to this right now knows exactly how to
do it. But the question is, do the loved ones that they're leaving their Bitcoin to? Do they
understand how to recover it do they know how not to lose it and that is that's where the difficulty
comes in that's the fly in the ointment for most bitcoiners yeah that's awesome you're securing
generational wealth um and the other like the other piece that is not only do they know how to
secure it and how to look after it like once they've had that passed down to them it's do they
know enough about what it is to know that they shouldn't be selling it like i imagine you do so
like an educational piece in there as well uh you're orange pilling people at that point but um
And I can also imagine over the last few weeks, few months, that you've had a lot of calls with people saying, what the hell's going on? How are people dealing with it?
I think there's two modes, two different types of clients. There are clients who have been in
Bitcoin for a long time and they look at this as an opportunity if they're underweight Bitcoin to
buy more Bitcoin. And then there are clients who are new to Bitcoin who are looking at this
really without the deep understanding of what this is, thinking, hey, am I losing my shirt?
Do I need to be selling? Has anything changed? And we get a lot of calls basically asking that
exact question has anything changed do we need to be doing anything and that's the opportunity to
talk to clients and say hey this opportunity doesn't come around very often and and this is
where i think it's really important when we're giving advice around bitcoin to be very honest
with clients up front and you know when we're starting the journey with clients we talk of
the fact that most clients will never put in what what they would allocate to bitcoin in their first
purchase. And with that in mind and having that understanding, I think we set expectations
very early upfront and we say, look, we want you to put in say five or 10%, whatever the number is,
into Bitcoin. And they typically put in half what they're prepared to. And when we see that it's
half of what they talk of, facetiously, I tell them, look, I just need to tell you that the day
you buy, it could drop 50%. And when it drops 50%, I'm going to come back to you and we're going to
have the discussion around, you know, the 50% that you didn't put in, now's the time to buy that other
50% that you didn't put in to dollar cost average down. And this is where I think a lot of time
spent with clients explaining it, how that market works, the opportunity that lies in front. And
really, this is where, not that we talk about this, but it really needs to be looked at,
not in isolation, but really is a whole picture of their financial health. At this point in time,
you know, where do you want to allocate money? Do you want to allocate money to the AI sector
where it feels like it's at all-time highs? Do you want to be allocating the software sector,
which is getting disrupted by AI? Do you want to go into the commodities market, which seems like
maybe a questionable investment? Can you be investing in property right now? To me,
property is near uninvestable across all of Western countries. And we're about to see probably a 20
or 30% drop in Australia. The US has had troubles because they've got a very high 30-year
fixed rate, the UK's had its problems, New Zealand's off 20%. So you need to have a look at
what are you investing and what's the opportunity cost of investing in Bitcoin? And when you look at
all of the other options from an investment perspective, and you boil that down to what
the upside is for Bitcoin over the next 10 years, which I still believe we've got 100x in front of
us in the next 10 years, Bitcoin becomes undeniable. And that word again is going to pop up when
Bitcoin breaks an all-time high in the next however long it takes, there's going to be a
lot of capital on the sidelines that is going to chase that. And that's where we'll see a real pop.
I love it. We've got to talk about property because I'm glad you brought that up. I know
you know this, but I've been looking at buying a place here in Australia for the last six months
so in no rush. And Bitcoin's price has probably delayed that a little bit. But the interesting
thing as i've been keeping a close eye on it is there's so many houses that are going to auction
and not selling there's things that are hanging around for a very long time like the property
market here does seem like it's in a really bad spot i don't know what it's like across the rest
of the world but i'm guessing it's similar um i've actually another little piece on that is i've seen
the property price in london have basically not changed in like a decade at this point um like
what's going on like why do you think this is happening and do you think this is a long-term
sort of bear market in the property? Well, let me talk to the broader market globally,
and then I'll focus in on the, I guess, the limitations from the Australian sector.
From a global perspective, I think we have reached peak debt. And the problem with peak debt is,
is that we can't afford to borrow any more money. And if you look at how property prices and capital
growth are driven. The two key factors for property growth are, well, outside of interest
rates, which are really dictated by inflation. But outside of interest rates, the two key factors
which drive property growth values is immigration, i.e. more people coming into the town to bid up
property prices, and credit growth. Is credit growth growing? Now, I've told you, and literally
I've talked about this probably for the last three or four years where we are literally saturated.
We are up to our eyeballs in debt. We can't afford any more debt. And now we've had interest
rates go from 0% to 5% in the US. Everyone is choking on debt. Now, the only way to get capital
growth back into these properties is to lower interest rates and allow the borrowing capacity
to go up so they can issue more debt to have higher prices. That's what's happening on a
global scale. So I look at that and think it's going to be very tough for global property to go
up because basically we're hamstrung by credit growth. In Australia, it's even worse for two
First time, and I don't want to turn this political at all because I don't like other
side of politics, but for the first time in 30 years, immigration is now a huge political
issue in Australia.
And people are unhappy with the level of immigration.
I think this is the Western world.
Like it's not just Australia.
Agreed.
So for that reason, I feel like immigration, there's going to be downward pressure on
immigration, which means downward pressure on property prices.
And at the same time, and this is the really big thing, the local changes to the Australian
that the Australian government, federal Australian government, has introduced with respect to
negative gearing on property has meant that investors can now borrow 30% less than they
were previously approved for. So with the stroke of a pen, Jim Chalmers has changed the borrowing
capacity. If you could borrow a million dollars before the budget, you can now borrow somewhere
between $650,000 to $800,000 now. Now, what does that do for property prices? By default,
given that 40% of the Australian market is made up of investors. Now, 40% of the Australian market
has 30% less to borrow. So that is going to put huge downward pressure on these property prices.
And this is where, if you draw a comparison to New Zealand, they had some similar policies that
were detrimental to the property market introduced in 2022. And the New Zealand property market is
probably off somewhere between 20% to 30%, depending on which locale you want to look at.
it's been devastating for the New Zealand property market. It's been difficult for the
Canadian property market. The UK property market's been not so good either. And the Australian
property market, I think, is back at 2022 relative to the New Zealand property market. So I think for
the next two or three years, we're going to have downward pressure on the Australian property
market, which is great because I think your purchase is probably going to coincide with
the bottom of that property market and a ripping price in Bitcoin. So you might have timed it
perfectly. That's pure luck. But the crazy thing is in Australia that the housing market is like
the stock market here. People aren't really investing in the stock market. If they are,
they're investing in the US stock market generally. No one invests in the ASX.
And housing is everything. So if the housing bubble does actually pop here, I think it'll
be really damaging to a lot of people. I think it'll be just as devastating as it
has been to New Zealand. And this is where what's worse than that is probably 60% of the Australian
stock market is made up or related to the Australian property market. If you look at
the major banks, they're basically a leverage bet on the Australian property market and
the major banks make up about 40 of the all ordinaries which is the local stock market Then you got the property rates you got the building companies and everything else that tied to it You at 60 of the Australian index is tied to property prices in Australia And this is the thing that
really hard as someone who is looking at this market. I would never bet against the Australian
property market because everyone is in on it. If you look at locally, if you look at personally,
If you look at families, you look at your friends, they're all in on property.
And then you look at local, state, and federal government.
Guess what?
Local governments generate council rates and everything else, which is typically derived
from property values.
State governments earn a fortune from stamp duties that get charged, and federal government
makes a fortune from capital gains tax, which is one of their major line items in their budget
as far as revenue goes.
And that's largely driven by property sales.
And then you look at the corporations.
The major banks are in on it and 60% of the Australian stock market.
So it's very difficult to unwind that reliance on property.
And sadly, I look at the future for the next two or three years and with the policies that
are instituted, I think we're going to be down 20 or 30% relative to where we are today.
Yeah.
And it's like everyone here will look at a house as an investment.
I'm looking at a house as a place that I want to live and have my family grow up in.
It's a very different thing.
I'm not looking at it to necessarily make money.
If it does, great.
but i know i'm preaching to the choir here saying this to you but i don't understand why you don't
anything but bitcoin and that sounds crazy when you see it's down like 60 from its all-time high
whatever it is but still like when you actually weigh everything up like why would you own anything
else i couldn't agree more and this is where property is an indoctrination and particularly
where we've grown up where you've grown up property was a way to get ahead you know you
you look around, you look at the BRW's top 200 rich list, it's a little bit more diversified now
with some tech founders and the rest of it. But that list used to be made up predominantly of
property investors. And it's been a phenomenal way to grow wealth. I just don't know if it's
going to be that moving forward with where we are from a digital perspective. I think we're moving
into a more digitized world. AI is obviously going to prove that out. That's going to be really good
for Bitcoin. And where I think a lot of property investors don't really want to face the music on
this is across the Western world, most of the property charts that we see start in 1950 and
they do nothing but go up. But people forget that property topped in 1930, dropped 50% for the next
decade and then took 10 years to recover back to the 1930s price Now this is very convenient to leave out Property doesn always go up And this is where the problem is I think
a lot of people are going to find out what negative equity is and how damaging that's
going to be, particularly with the loan-to-value ratios which banks are giving out now. Like,
you buy a million-dollar property and you can borrow 95% on that. Now, if property prices drop
20%. You've put in $50,000 and you sell the house for $800,000. The bank's taking a $150,000 loss
and you've ripped up your $50,000 and you're left with a bill from the bank for $150,000.
So this is going to grind property to a hold as far as transactions and trading go. No one's going
to sell the property. And to give, I don't often do this, but to give the federal government some
kudos back in the GFC, one of the things that they instituted to support the local banks
They gave them unlimited support to help them through that period.
But it was on the condition that a contract for a residential mortgage in Australia was
good for the term of the loan.
There was no re-rating it.
There was no re-valuing the property.
As long as the borrower was paying the interest payments, principal and interest payments on
it, there was no recourse that the lender could take to sell the property on them.
and I think there's going to be a lot of people
who are going to have to hold that property
for the next 30 years just to break even.
So that's dire.
That's terrible.
Yeah, it's scary, man.
There's not many good things you can point to in the economy
and be like, this thing looks great.
Yeah, outside of Bitcoin, that's why I'm so bullish on it.
Like you look around and when you understand
what the risks involved are with everything else out there,
all of a sudden the volatility of Bitcoin,
you realize that volatility is not a risk. Risk is risk. Volatility is something all
completely different altogether. And when you weigh up the risk of all of the other investment
opportunities out there, the Bitcoin, to me, Bitcoin is a clear winner, head and shoulders
above everything else. Absolutely. So for anyone who's made it this far, who might be panicking
about the Bitcoin price action, what's your sort of parting piece of advice for anyone?
them. This too shall pass. I think it's just a matter of bunkering down, making sure there's
little to no leverage on what you have. Make sure you own what you think you own via self-custody.
I think in these types of markets, you want to make sure that you're self-custaining your Bitcoin.
You want to leave as little Bitcoin on exchange as you have to because you not sure what those exchanges are going to do Are they going to make it through Are they going to blow up I don know Will we have another FTX I not sure But when you self your Bitcoin
it is a superpower for peace of mind when you know how to do it.
And I look at that and think, self-custody your Bitcoin,
know what you want, make sure you've got what you want,
and just be patient because I think this period in time will pass.
We'll be sitting high.
We'll be thinking we're smart again before we know it.
and it's really good to remember these times
and basically plan for them in the future
because I've got no doubt they'll return as well.
One thing you said there that's actually interesting
just to pull on before we close out
is you said there may be another FTX, I don't know.
It doesn't, at least right now, look likely.
I can't point to any company in the space
that looks like they're on the edge of blowing up
and I think that would be the first time
we've really had that since I've been involved in Bitcoin.
Every time there's been a big bear market
that was like exchange getting hacked,
people doing rug pulls then there was ftx and the entire fraud around that with 3ac like if we got
through this bear market without a major company blowing up i think that would be very very cool
and like it just shows the maturing in the space i know right like who would have thought basically
bitcoin's all grown up and the players in it so that's a really good point i hadn't thought of
that like it's all every other bear market's been accompanied with absolute mass destruction
total loss. If we get through this time, I think that's wildly positive. And contrary to what
people thought before major institutions started getting involved in Bitcoin, everyone thought that
would blow up, but it turns out maybe they're a lot more responsible than we gave them credit for.
Yeah, I think that would be a very positive sign. Last time we recorded, Peter, it was, I think,
when I released the show was four days before the final high in Bitcoin. So I'm hoping,
we marked the top there and I'm hoping we're marking the bottom here. So four more days.
I always love speaking to you, man. I know I say this every time, but next time we need to do it
in person. We need to meet up in Sydney or something and do another one, but appreciate
you coming on. Look forward to it. I always love catching up with you, Danny, and I'm eternally
grateful for all your hard work in having the guests on that you do. I'm an avid listener and
love your work and thanks for distributing that message and educating all of us. So thank you.
Thank you, man. I appreciate it. I'll speak to you soon.
Cheers, man.