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They're disingenuous arguers because they set up these arguments, but they don't actually

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believe what they're arguing. I hope that they don't take extreme measures in the face of that

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and do something that would disrupt Bitcoin's narrative publicly or threaten the use of the

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software for everyone else because literally their claim is that what these people are doing

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is disrupting the software. You're building a bunch of tools that I think could probably be

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used against people using transactions that you want to make. The leader of the current free world

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and market economy is leading the transition to Bitcoin and crypto stuff, largely through stable

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coins. And they're using that to entrench the global power structure. It ultimately migrates

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to sort of Bitcoin as a global reserve asset. Rizzo, the Rizzo, how you doing, man?

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I'm enjoying it, man. Hold it on with both hands. We've got a tight grip. It's the middle of a bull

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market you know the the the bulls bucking the middle of the bull market price does not but like

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spiritually you know there's a lot of bucking i think we should talk about the uh being in the

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middle of the bull market because we did a show for bitcoin's birthday back in january right at

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the start of the year um and we were kind of speculating what might happen this year and i

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think we were both overly optimistic on a few things um the first one like trump was kind of

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the story at the time um we were talking a lot about strategic reserve well he's still yeah he's

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still a big part of the story but i don't think it's dominating the narrative as much as it was

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then um and what do you think of what he's done because for me like when i look at it there's been

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a lot of words and basically no action and the only action we have seen has been pretty negative

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i would say in terms of like what's happened to the samurai devs um so like give us your sort of

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overview on what you think? I mean, it's changed the whole tone in the environment, right? So like

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he's a president, he has to work with Congress to pass laws and regulations. So like, you know,

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you can sort of argue like, is the letter, how different is the letter of the law? So maybe in

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that case, like the Genius Act is like the only new thing besides the executive orders, which made

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the strategic reserve in the stockpile, got rid of debanking and other things. But like the tone

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is like 100% different. And the tone is 100%, you know, what's pushing forward, like the

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institutional adoption that's happening right now with the bitcoin treasury companies uh and what's

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going on with the big banks like onboarding stable coins and you're hearing like you know

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uh sometimes you know the big you know as a bitcoin you have to step out in the broader

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crypto land it's like google's integrating crypto payments and ai lightning wall is going to be in

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there with you know you know there's big like big things happening um you know on a scale where it's

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like okay let's just take the google ai thing okay so like they're going to integrate like a

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lightning wallet into you know google's ai platform the idea that like there would be

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talking about it was like theoretically impossible like prior to trump and it's all about the tone

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of the administration and sure they have to follow through and sure there's some things that like the

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administration could be better on and again this is not like a huge validation of the current

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administration by any means it's just that you know it's a statement of like they have changed

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the tone and culture very obviously maybe you have to be in america to see it but um yeah it's it's

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night and day uh again like whether or not they're like good stewards for bitcoin or like the trump

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family's involvement in crypto is good whether like you know they have plans to make bitcoin

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nakedly partisan which i think it's pretty obvious that they they want that that outcome right um

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you know it's a mixed bag but like you know it undoubtedly like there would be you know there's

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just a whole tonal difference the way the things are talked about what companies are doing things

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yeah right I don't know it's like how could you've what else could you have wanted at this point

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right well I agree that the the tone's changed obviously like the regulatory environments change

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and it's allowing bitcoin businesses to go and build bitcoin tools in to a degree like obviously

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not if that's a privacy tool they seem to be very unhappy about that and there's now this

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kind of expansion the patriarch that they're talking about but like as the administration

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themselves like they they obviously sign into law or actually i don't know how it works they

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sign the executive order to do a strategic bitcoin reserve but they've not really done anything and

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the stuff they have done is like well that's like technically that's currently law and like there is

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the the the any bitcoin that's held by the government is considered part of the reserve

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like officially as of now so the way the executive order works is that it an executive order like

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creates not law but it's essentially like uh it's like a law in lieu of something else right so like

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you know as long as that's the decree then that like that's what it is and that legally like any

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you know organization or agency within the united states would have to report that

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to the federal government and that would be part of the strategic reserve so i mean it's

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it's as real as a law could get without them passing the bitcoin act all the bitcoin act

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really does is it present it prevents something from you know like card game an executive order

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can be as like a one as a is like a two pair you know and like a congressional act is like a full

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house you know it's like it beats most hands so it's like it's there you know if there's another

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hand like it's played and like wipes it out uh but it's you know for all intents and purposes

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like in the current legal climate it's there right it's achieved um so yeah i don't know i

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would dispute that the trump administration i guess if we had this conversation on january

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you know uh what is it what's the birthday third january 3rd i mean yeah you're the big

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What kind of story in Rizzo?

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Well, I'm a January 9th guy.

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You know, I'm not a January 3rd Bitcoin.

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I'm in the very small minority of people who think since the day that the software was released should be considered Bitcoin's birthday.

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So I'm a separatist on that issue.

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In the spirit of forks and division.

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But yeah, no, look, I mean, it's hard to imagine like a conference like I was at today, the NYC Bitcoin Treasuries Unconference, where there was so much institutional presence there.

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like it's just really hard to imagine that have happened without the trumps and you can say what

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you will about there's a lot of pluses and minuses on their participation but like i don't know i'd

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take the over on that they've kind of pretty much changed like the idea that there's conferences in

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new york that like weren't conferences in new york for many years like prior to this that is the one

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thing that has clearly changed this time is that institutions are definitely here like when sailor

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came out in 2021 um there was a lot of talk about this and nothing really happened like there's a

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couple of companies that did a similar thing back then but this has obviously been the year where

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institutions have actually come to bitcoin corporates have been putting on the balance sheet

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um i'm still kind of skeptical about the treasury company thing and we will get into that but do you

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think um do you think this has changed the four-year cycle because this is something that you've been

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like a four-year cycle maxion for quite a long time now yeah i've been it's been my teddy bear

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for a long time i was i had a podcast with matt hogan where we debated it um uh yeah i i think

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like look if any time is different my my steel man for like why this time is different so i so

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i've developed a steel man for like here's why i think this time is different and i don't know if

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it's enough for me to walk off my position of like i think there's gonna be another four-year cycle

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because i think again the four-year cycles are psychological and like people get overextended

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especially if it runs in q4 uh i think the steel man for this time is different essentially for me

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goes um you know if you think about the way that bitcoin could have become mainstream like in the

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world like there was there was maybe like a thousand scenarios in which bitcoin like became

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global money there you know in 2009 you know let's just say uh there was you know there was

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all these domino outcomes like a world in which like the united states is like specifically

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spearheading that and like they are by doing by spearheading that global transition to this new

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system, both entrenching the current power structure and then ensuring the US dollars

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placed in that structure like indefinitely is like an incredibly specific outcome that

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like removes like 99% of the outcomes.

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So, you know, there's a board game in the United States like called Guess Who and you

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sort of have to guess the facial attributes of a person.

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And so one of the quirks of the game is you'll say, you know, oh, does this person have a

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beard and it'll wipe out like three people or, you know, this person like, you know,

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whatever this wipes out like 90 of the options like it's like it's almost like you said you know

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this person have hair and it's like no it like wipes out 90 just danny yeah 90 of the options

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um and it's uh you know because again it's like a very specific outcome like maybe there were

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outcomes where el salvador led a global coalition of nations that established some alternative

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of Bitcoin basket for like sovereign adoption and that the U.S. was a laggard and they lagged

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behind or maybe no countries did. And it like remained a grassroots thing, like a specific

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reality where like the leader of the current free world and market economy is leading the transition

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to Bitcoin and crypto stuff, largely through stable coins. I mean, we can debate that, but

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that's what's happening. And they're using that to entrench the global power structure

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is a very incredibly specific outcome.

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And I think it gets you to a point where it's like,

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okay, well, if that happens

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and this is how the industry mainstreams,

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then, you know, there's not that much,

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there's not like a ton of like huge disruption left.

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You're like, you're a lot of the way towards this being a,

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because again, it's like, you can kind of think about it.

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It's like Bitcoin began.

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And then it's sort of like the open question is like,

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okay, how does it become the money of the world?

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How does it become like mainstream as money?

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And so, like, you know, we live in the window of time where that's an unknowable answer.

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Like, none of us know that.

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But, like, this feels like a very specific answer.

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It becomes global money by the United States, you know, adopting a policy of pushing stable

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coins abroad to, you know, entrench the dollar, displace all other foreign currencies, and

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then eventually, like, they have to save in Bitcoin to, you know, offset the deficit and

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other things in order to do that.

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That's incredibly specific.

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and I would have argued in like as far back you know maybe as recently as 2021 incredibly unlikely

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it's actually astounding that that happened um and how quickly it happened and how people that we

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know like were involved in like you know a three-month period in which you know you always

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think about Bretton Woods and you're like a bunch of guys got together for a weekend and like made

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the financial system and you're like yeah they like took luggage there and they ate and they

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went home and like you know they left with like the financial system being different like we saw

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that happen, but it was so fast that even we didn't notice it. It's like that happened. In

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the summer of 2024, the people we knew went to the Trump administration with this idea to use

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stablecoins to entrench US hegemony internationally and to use Bitcoin as,

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it ultimately migrates to Bitcoin as a global reserve asset. How aligned that coalition is on

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that, it's pretty clear that that's what happened. And it's pretty shocking how little public

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discussion there was on it and just how clearly it seems to have been enacted.

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And so it's quite possible that we lived through one of these events that just was like,

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no, that happened already. It's over. Like, that's the way that this is going to happen.

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I mean, that's a pretty wild framing when you put it like that.

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I've not heard it described like that and it's pretty fucking crazy.

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Do you think, like, again, we were talking just before we started recording

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and you were saying that there's people trapped in like a 2021 mindset and i i may be one of them

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um i think you're in the car you're fighting the carbonite yeah but like my my worry with this

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stuff is like what risk are we introducing to bitcoin like i i get the trojan horse analogy

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i think it's probably going to be right but there is like an alternate reality where instead of

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them taking the horse into troy they just burnt it down and like what i am worried about is bitcoin

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still being freedom money but what are you talking about specifically like bitcoin still being able

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to use as freedom money like not just having this as like a kyc store of value yeah so you're

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introducing a 2021 meme and saying like is this bad for this 2021 meme um which you know is the

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thing i hope that bitcoin is freedom money for people right uh look all these things are um

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so there's bitcoin is this competition of ideas right and i think that the culture basically

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you know, as far as I can figure out over time,

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like what it does is it elevates sort of figures

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in the movement and then it sort of,

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it coagulates in different periods around like this,

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what I would call like, you know, a utopian vision.

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So like the freedom money of like the 2020 at one era

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was the utopian vision of that time.

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It was said like Bitcoin is going to mainstream

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through grassroots adoption, through self-custody,

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through the culture becoming mainstream

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and becoming, you know, Bitcoin, you know,

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so Bitcoin has a counterculture movement

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that would, you know, spread globally.

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And then and that Bitcoin, like the people would sort of rise up outside of the governments and sort of remove power from government.

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Like that's a very specific instantiation of like the idea of how Bitcoin would mainstream.

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And so I think like the history of Bitcoin is like a history of Bitcoin gravitating to different people who have different answers for this.

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Right. And so like, you know, in the 2014 era, you know, Andreas had the idea of Bitcoin as like Internet money.

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Right. Like, you know, the Internet money, Internet of money. Right.

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And so that was kind of the utopia of the time.

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And Bitcoin was going to be used for payments all over the place.

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And Bitcoin was going to disrupt the banks and kind of do all these things.

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The 2017 era had its own kind of figures that kind of had that.

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And then I think the 2021 era had its own collection of figures that collectively sort

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of had this vision for Bitcoin.

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And so one of my jokes with the old timers that I think most of them laugh at is that

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if you went to a Bitcoin conference in the past...

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like so like let's just say i teleported you back to like the 2013 bitcoin conference like how long

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would it take for you to notice that you're at a bitcoin conference like so so that so the the

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analogy here is like would you know you're in like the same place because it's so different right and

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so like you know if i teleported somebody from like the new york bitcoin treasuries unconference

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to like the 2021 ross albrecht speaking from prison tony hawk on a skateboard uh f the government

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people screaming on stage like version of the culture like they would find themselves in a place

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that they thought was completely unrecognizable and i think if you went back to 2017 where it's like

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you know max geyser's on stage screaming like bitcoin is the only secure database like it's the

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it's the way that all sort of you know cryptograph like you know settlements global settlements is

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going to happen on top of you know layered layered bitcoin we're building like you know it's like

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every in 2013 it's like you would have had a similar thing with people like global commerce

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or maybe you'd see Amir Taki like with AK-47 being like, this is going to be like deep state,

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like, you know, internet money that like, you know, people will throw off the yoke of the state

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and uprise. So like every, every version of Bitcoin has kind of like a different kind of like,

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I like the word phrase utopian vision, because it's essentially like,

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you know, it's a, it's a way that like, or a theory on like how Bitcoin will be mainstreamed.

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Like, I think what we're living through right now is like, Michael Saylor has a very specific

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vision on that it's like pretty new it's like i'd say like maybe and he acknowledged this on stage

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today like maybe within the last year or something that he's kind of stumbled upon where it's like

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michael saylor was somebody who like was in the culture in the movement very important but like i

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don't think like was like leading the whole movement like in 2021 like he wasn't like somebody

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that people were like oh like that guy is like going in the direction of the mood there were

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other people that we would have looked to for that uh but this is very much like the culture being

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remade in sailor's image like i say like you know this is sailor mania this is the sailor cycle

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and sailor's specific vision for bitcoin mainstreaming as a financial asset that is

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highly securitized and pushed through financial institutions is like is a very specific utopian

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vision but like the thing that i think that's the most interesting about it stick with me

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is that it's the most compatible with like the current regulatory framework and the also this

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idea that the Trump administration has of pushing like stablecoin adoption globally and maintaining

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its role as sort of like the global superpower. And I think if you look at every other version

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of like the utopian visions, they're not as highly compatible. And so like the new thing here is like

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sailors particular utopian vision, Bitcoin mainstreaming through financialization as a

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credit instrument pushed through institutions where retail adoption and custody risk are solved

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through regulated financial products is an incredibly specific vision,

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but it's also highly compatible with something that the government would tolerate

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and traditional financial institutions would tolerate.

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Contrast that with the 2021 era of, we're going to get rid of the banks,

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like, F the banks, like, they can't deplatform us,

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we're going to make self-custody a thing.

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Like, that's very antithetical to institutions, very antithetical to the state.

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so you know the thing where you know i get wrapped up in what sailor's doing is like maybe this is

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the maybe this version the utopian version of bitcoin has the most chance of happening

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because it's so synergistic with like the other power structures it's the least uh offensive to

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them like the idea of freedom money you know just that that kind of verbiage and like what we meant

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when we said freedom money you know again it speaks to sort of this like grassroots uprising

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kind of idea that Bitcoin would, you know, scale as a global counterculture and challenge

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like the status quo, that that's threatening to the institutions and the state.

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And so now we have like a utopian vision for Bitcoin, but it's highly compatible with those

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things.

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And that's what Saylor, that's why I think Saylor is getting a lot of momentum because

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it's actually something that's pretty new.

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That makes sense.

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It does make sense.

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And I think for Bitcoin to have done what I would consider succeed, it needs to have

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done all of those things.

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Like, I think just being a financialized asset is not interesting enough on its own.

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Like, do you think the kind of freedom money elements come off the back of this financialization of Bitcoin?

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Yeah, the trick is it's like looking at different parts of the same painting.

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It's like, so is Bitcoin any less of a payment method than it was in 2013?

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The answer is no.

283
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It's like I can pay you for a hat or I can buy something at the Danny Knowles store with Bitcoin.

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It's just that's not the focal point of the culture.

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And so, you know, each of these, like the Bitcoin culture is like, you know, shadow puppets, like, you know, you make your hand and like, there's the big scary thing on the wall. And so like, you're just shooting the same thing from different angles. And it's like, the thing's the same. Like, how many lines of code about, you know, for all the knots, like, horror drama, like, how many lines of code of Bitcoin are like different from the original version, like, very little. And so like, what's happening is like, it's us imposing the light, shooting the light on the thing, and it's creating a different version of it.

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it's like that's still true like bitcoin scaling and layers like through a fee market like we

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thought in 2015 that we can get in the non-stop but like still the true like developers are still

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building towards that uh the 2021 era it's like freedom money it's like okay if you want to hold

289
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bitcoin and like not you know avoid the state like you can still be a meritake he's still living in

290
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spain like you know trying to like start a serbian revolution like somewhere like he can still like

291
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there's nothing about Bitcoin that prohibits him from doing that.

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Like Michael Saylor financializing Bitcoin doesn't prohibit him from doing that.

293
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So like it doesn't lose the properties,

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but then the culture and the industry and the, you know,

295
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it's like every time Bitcoin like goes up,

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we have to sort of explain why it's happening.

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And so we sort of just tell like the culture is the story that we tell

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ourselves, right?

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And so Saylor is like, that's,

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that's the story that we're telling ourselves right now is like that.

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this is the way it's going to happen.

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I don't, like, my qualm is, like,

303
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I don't think it makes the 2121 stuff less true.

304
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It's just that, like,

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it seems to be, like, the current culture,

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you know, because each of the cultures also, like,

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you know, they sort of are referendums

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on the other cultures, right?

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So if you look at what were the parts

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of the 2021 culture

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that the new culture is throwing out,

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so like self is thrown out right So now the idea is like we can solve self with technology we going to solve self with financialization and financial products and securitization So they so they have a critique on the 21 culture

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And now that is their culture.

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And then so I'd say, like, what's another like big critique?

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Let's talk about that critique first, because to me, that's a huge like it's an it's an issue.

316
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Like we do want to be pushing self-custody Bitcoin.

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and like the the idea that self-custody is really hard i just don't think is true what's really gonna

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bend your mind i think a little bit is like when you know it becomes theoretically possible like

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self-custody mstr through like the layer two bitcoins because you're issued like a financial

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product that you can then self-custody on some sort of rail do you need to sell custody like a

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publicly traded equity though that's that seems very different to me well so one of the things

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that the exchanges have been doing that's again like sort of outside the normative bitcoin radar

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but it's pretty interesting.

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It's like, so right now,

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it's like if you go to Kraken or Coinbase

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or like Robinhood,

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so they're doing tokenized equities,

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which again, nobody in Bitcoin

329
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is really paying attention to this,

330
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but it's a really interesting idea

331
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because again, essentially like,

332
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what's the best use case for tokenized equities?

333
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It's like Bitcoin treasury companies.

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So what does that mean?

335
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It's like somebody in Nigeria

336
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can buy a share of MSTR on Kraken,

337
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like on Solana,

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like in a wrapped asset that they own

339
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with an exchange

340
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and like they have bitcoin exposure they are buying exposure to bitcoin price like through

341
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this really warped you know sort of system um and so you know um just because you are issuing

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equities or like credit doesn't mean eventually you won't have self-custody that is actually

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that's that could actually happen like and i think today you can do that like you can actually hold a

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tokenized equity self-custodied in most of the exchange wads like if you wanted to

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and so like the idea that that you know so then you argue well it's just a credit like you know

346
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it's like a stable coin right you have to redeem it at the at the bank and then they give you the

347
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dollar or whatever um and it is like stable think about the stable equities tokenized equities are

348
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stable coin stable equities you're basically you basically now have sort of like you can

349
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self-custody dollars you can self-custody uh equities and so like the treasury companies are

350
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equities and so we can't like people are self-custodying equities currently yeah but i

351
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struggle with that because like are you actually self-custodying dollars and equities in that in

352
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that situation because like you're still at the whim of tether or you're still at the whim of like

353
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strategy well tether economy has been around for 10 years right and seems pretty good right like

354
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we don't hear a large like we don't hear many stories of like people in russia or china like

355
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using tether to avoid sanctions that are losing access to their dollars do you like i don't i

356
00:25:12,102 --> 00:25:16,742
don't haven't heard any of those stories but it's the issue of the word like self-custody because

357
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if you are at the whim of another company are you actually self-custodying anything well where the

358
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company in this case is just issued like again it's like a stable coin um so the coinbase issues

359
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you a stable coin and you self-custody it you have the the coin and you're well you have the keys to

360
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the asset unless they decide you don't no like so a lot of the exchanges have self-custodied

361
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wallets now so like they have both an exchange account and you you can have like you have a

362
00:25:45,222 --> 00:25:50,962
essentially a software wallet like through them and so you can buy the asset within the exchange

363
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account and then you can withdraw the asset to the self-custody wallet that you have like the

364
00:25:55,082 --> 00:25:59,842
software wallet that you have but but my point on like the tether thing is i i agree we've not seen

365
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them we i mean we have seen them blacklist certain people um it's been a small this is a good thing

366
00:26:04,462 --> 00:26:10,362
i'm just telling you that this is possible today and it's like um that so i think like the idea

367
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here that like the equities are antithetical to self-custody just like might actually not be true

368
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like so there's a there's a there's a pathway where that criticism just like isn't super relevant

369
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like you actually might be able to self-custody mstr and s strc and strike and stride and all these

370
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credit products to like michael saylor is like issuing like within a a wallet yeah but but my

371
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point on that was really that the idea of us throwing out the idea that people should self

372
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custody bitcoin is a negative well no it's just it's just the current culture within this like

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kind of new 2025 sailor mania culture uh just sort of i think it admits that we hit some ceiling

374
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on like how many people it was like possible to like increase bitcoin adoption like through that

375
00:26:54,222 --> 00:26:55,882
I'm not arguing for their point.

376
00:26:55,962 --> 00:26:56,822
I'm not saying I agree with it.

377
00:26:56,882 --> 00:26:58,942
I'm just telling you, like, this is what this group of people think.

378
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What they think happened in 2021 is that we issued all these hardware wallets and we issued all these products and we did all these things.

379
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And then we hit some sort of a total ceiling addressable market on how many people were actually going to custody Bitcoin on that.

380
00:27:12,122 --> 00:27:13,482
You might not agree with that.

381
00:27:13,502 --> 00:27:15,342
And that's a reasonable thing to disagree with.

382
00:27:15,422 --> 00:27:16,682
That's just what they think.

383
00:27:16,682 --> 00:27:31,502
And what their plan is to address that is to increase the exposure that people have to Bitcoin by offering people a chance to buy these equities which offer them exposure to Bitcoin.

384
00:27:31,982 --> 00:27:35,402
That's the whole kind of general idea there.

385
00:27:36,342 --> 00:27:39,582
You can, again, like, I don't think that they're guaranteed to be right.

386
00:27:39,783 --> 00:27:45,482
That's just the current, just like the 2021 era, I can't say that they were necessarily right.

387
00:27:45,482 --> 00:27:50,283
you think very strongly that that was like the way to go and like that was the only you know

388
00:27:50,283 --> 00:27:55,622
possible outcome i don't know i'm like i hold my opinion much more loosely on that and again i can

389
00:27:55,622 --> 00:28:00,422
still self-custody my own bitcoin i can use collaborative custody and you know i have access

390
00:28:00,422 --> 00:28:05,862
to the same tools these institutions have uh so i'm not bothered by that i would like more people

391
00:28:05,862 --> 00:28:10,563
to self-custody bitcoin i thought it was cool the idea that i like the 2021 culture it was like my

392
00:28:10,563 --> 00:28:14,502
favorite if i had to pick any of the four cultures it's my favorite it's just not the thing that's

393
00:28:14,502 --> 00:28:19,242
happening right now yeah i mean i think we could go like around in circles on that and and my point

394
00:28:19,242 --> 00:28:24,902
to it is not that like the narrative is going to evolve and i'm okay with that and bitcoin doesn't

395
00:28:24,902 --> 00:28:29,662
care what i think about bitcoin i just think there's some values there that are being lost

396
00:28:29,662 --> 00:28:35,102
perhaps but again i think like as i said like potentially these things aren't as antithetical

397
00:28:35,102 --> 00:28:38,862
as you you might think because it might be possible to solve them with technology and other things

398
00:28:38,862 --> 00:28:42,682
you know it's also possible you know one of the reasons that i think bitcoin treasuries.net is

399
00:28:42,682 --> 00:28:46,242
interesting is because like, yeah, there is no place to actually litigate what these companies

400
00:28:46,242 --> 00:28:49,543
are doing and actually compare how they're doing. And like, we do need a forum to like,

401
00:28:50,122 --> 00:28:53,642
have honest conversations about how these companies are performing. Because this whole

402
00:28:53,642 --> 00:28:59,082
thing is an experiment. Like, I mean, yeah, yeah, I mean, it's like, we know that strategy is working,

403
00:28:59,082 --> 00:29:04,182
but there's a lot of, you know, parts about their thesis that might prove to be untrue,

404
00:29:04,182 --> 00:29:09,502
or that some other future culture might rebel against, you know, we can we could look at like,

405
00:29:09,502 --> 00:29:13,523
okay, what does the current culture believe? And then what are the potential issues with that?

406
00:29:14,242 --> 00:29:17,803
But like, you know, so if you were to kind of say like, okay, what is the new culture?

407
00:29:18,502 --> 00:29:23,043
What is the sailor? What is this new children of sailor culture? I don't know, what do we want to

408
00:29:23,043 --> 00:29:27,462
call it? Like the post sailor, you know, institutional Bitcoin culture, that's the

409
00:29:27,462 --> 00:29:31,242
Bitcoin treasuries movement. Like, what is that? What do they believe? And what do they want?

410
00:29:32,082 --> 00:29:37,543
I think it's pretty clear that they think they're increasingly addressable market for people who

411
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own Bitcoin exposure by solving custody and regulatory challenges for people.

412
00:29:42,783 --> 00:29:45,263
And I think they're scaling up that base.

413
00:29:45,922 --> 00:29:50,362
I think it's pretty clear that they think that the cost of Bitcoin, like the Bitcoin's

414
00:29:50,362 --> 00:29:53,263
appreciation should be the, you know, this is the hurdle rate.

415
00:29:53,763 --> 00:29:58,222
It should be like the rate of return should be what all companies like strive to outperform.

416
00:29:58,842 --> 00:30:05,783
And so and they think that the new companies, like the companies of the Bitcoin era, should

417
00:30:05,783 --> 00:30:07,263
both outperform Bitcoin

418
00:30:07,263 --> 00:30:09,543
and then offer investors

419
00:30:09,543 --> 00:30:11,563
a return beyond what Bitcoin

420
00:30:11,563 --> 00:30:12,942
was able to provide.

421
00:30:13,922 --> 00:30:16,023
So the real big question

422
00:30:16,023 --> 00:30:17,722
is like, will that happen?

423
00:30:18,622 --> 00:30:19,682
You know, and then so the derivative

424
00:30:19,682 --> 00:30:21,842
metrics are from there are like, and this is a lot

425
00:30:21,842 --> 00:30:23,722
what Bitcoin Treasuries.net is working on, is like, okay, well,

426
00:30:23,763 --> 00:30:25,662
so like, if you have a company that

427
00:30:25,662 --> 00:30:27,202
stated goal is to outperform Bitcoin

428
00:30:27,202 --> 00:30:29,763
and you have investors that are investing in this

429
00:30:29,763 --> 00:30:31,783
company on the basis that doing so

430
00:30:31,783 --> 00:30:32,862
they will outperform Bitcoin,

431
00:30:33,582 --> 00:30:35,622
by what metrics do you actually

432
00:30:35,622 --> 00:30:45,263
judge that performance and what do these metrics mean and how correct are they?

433
00:30:45,303 --> 00:30:49,242
So that's the conversation on BitcoinTreasures.net right now that I think is actually really good

434
00:30:49,242 --> 00:30:52,402
and needs to be had because a lot of this stuff is theoretical.

435
00:30:53,342 --> 00:30:56,382
It's not guaranteed that Bitcoin is the hurdle rate.

436
00:30:56,523 --> 00:30:58,182
And so this is the word of God.

437
00:30:58,242 --> 00:31:00,162
It will always be the case that this is how it operates.

438
00:31:00,242 --> 00:31:04,222
This is a very complex thesis that is rolling out in real time that a lot of people in capital

439
00:31:04,222 --> 00:31:04,962
are aligning behind.

440
00:31:04,962 --> 00:31:05,962
That is what you're seeing.

441
00:31:05,962 --> 00:31:10,202
You're seeing the emergence of a new movement in Bitcoin that has a very specific thesis

442
00:31:10,202 --> 00:31:12,722
that is gathering a lot of capital.

443
00:31:12,722 --> 00:31:15,202
And so then it's important to say, like, OK, well, what is their thesis?

444
00:31:15,202 --> 00:31:16,202
What do they actually think?

445
00:31:16,202 --> 00:31:22,303
And so I think, like, you know, number one, scaling custody by solving regulatory challenges,

446
00:31:22,303 --> 00:31:23,622
increasing that.

447
00:31:23,622 --> 00:31:30,202
The hurdle rate thing, you know, both on the investor side and the Bitcoin side, they believe

448
00:31:30,202 --> 00:31:32,922
and I you know, this is you can explain it pretty simply, right?

449
00:31:32,922 --> 00:31:43,442
Like, if you have a company in, like, the United States, you want to invest in that company if they will outperform the dollar, right?

450
00:31:43,543 --> 00:31:47,222
Like, so if, like, you invest in Apple because Apple will outperform the dollar.

451
00:31:47,422 --> 00:31:49,142
That's how companies work.

452
00:31:49,242 --> 00:31:51,582
Like, that's why we form – this is the nice thing about Bitcoin.

453
00:31:51,682 --> 00:31:53,102
It, like, breaks down a lot of concepts.

454
00:31:53,102 --> 00:31:57,563
Like, a company has a group of people who, together, you want them to outperform the cost of capital.

455
00:31:58,283 --> 00:32:01,803
So if Bitcoin has the cost of capital, then there's a higher bar.

456
00:32:01,803 --> 00:32:08,142
And so like this new Bitcoin company now wants to sort of outperform the rate of return of Bitcoin.

457
00:32:08,502 --> 00:32:09,202
That's what it thinks.

458
00:32:09,862 --> 00:32:20,023
Sailor's sort of vision here is that the new company, the new Bitcoin company will outperform Bitcoin and deliver higher returns because that is why you would invest in a Bitcoin company.

459
00:32:20,602 --> 00:32:27,402
There is not a point to invest in a Bitcoin company if the Bitcoin company is going to lose you money in Bitcoin terms.

460
00:32:28,142 --> 00:32:30,303
And so this whole sort of movement,

461
00:32:30,422 --> 00:32:31,702
and this is why I actually think this movement

462
00:32:31,702 --> 00:32:34,382
is like pretty aligned with like Bitcoin's incentives,

463
00:32:34,763 --> 00:32:36,263
you know, as much as they get sort of,

464
00:32:36,263 --> 00:32:38,982
you know, trashed for not doing that.

465
00:32:39,063 --> 00:32:40,842
They're trying to create an environment

466
00:32:40,842 --> 00:32:43,142
where the companies measure their performance in Bitcoin,

467
00:32:43,702 --> 00:32:45,182
which if you think there's a Bitcoin standard,

468
00:32:45,322 --> 00:32:47,182
like that seems pretty obvious that that would occur

469
00:32:47,182 --> 00:32:50,122
and where investors can actually analyze

470
00:32:50,122 --> 00:32:52,543
the results of companies like in Bitcoin terms.

471
00:32:52,902 --> 00:32:53,922
And so if you believe in a future

472
00:32:53,922 --> 00:32:55,642
where like everything is denominated Bitcoin,

473
00:32:55,642 --> 00:33:00,002
it would seem pretty obvious that like the financial markets would need to operate that way.

474
00:33:00,502 --> 00:33:04,063
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502
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I think the obvious question there then is how many of these companies do you think will actually outperform Bitcoin?

503
00:35:12,023 --> 00:35:17,582
because when you look at like i'm on your website now there's like 192 public companies that have

504
00:35:17,582 --> 00:35:22,823
bitcoin on the balance sheet at the moment um strategy obviously miles ahead of everyone else

505
00:35:22,823 --> 00:35:27,162
there's a few in there that are gonna have either launched or are about to launch that have a

506
00:35:27,162 --> 00:35:31,242
significant amount of bitcoin i think there's a chance that those manage to do pretty well

507
00:35:31,242 --> 00:35:36,143
but there's a long tail that i assume is going to massively underperform bitcoin if you go out more

508
00:35:36,143 --> 00:35:42,043
than you know six months we've seen what's happened with naka recently they've their share

509
00:35:42,043 --> 00:35:47,762
price is absolutely tanked um how many do you think is sustainable to outperform bitcoin in this market

510
00:35:47,762 --> 00:35:52,882
yeah i mean that's the question right and that's the experiment that we're going towards

511
00:35:52,882 --> 00:35:58,563
it's like not a noble question all right um so i mean i think you will see thousands of them

512
00:35:58,563 --> 00:36:04,802
started i don't know how many you will see succeed um but again i think that goes through this idea

513
00:36:04,802 --> 00:36:13,643
that the Treasury company, even at the baseline opportunity of the people accruing Bitcoin

514
00:36:13,643 --> 00:36:17,402
for themselves within company vehicles, okay, you're asking what's the bear case for the

515
00:36:17,402 --> 00:36:18,402
Treasuries movement?

516
00:36:18,402 --> 00:36:20,282
What's the worst possible outcome?

517
00:36:20,282 --> 00:36:26,702
The worst possible outcome is you end up with hundreds of companies distributed around the

518
00:36:26,702 --> 00:36:32,762
world where investors have put dollars in, the companies have bought Bitcoin, the companies

519
00:36:32,762 --> 00:36:37,523
are all sort of stagnant, insolvent, they all go bust, whatever, they sell their coins,

520
00:36:37,523 --> 00:36:39,922
and then nothing really happens.

521
00:36:40,082 --> 00:36:41,543
You're sort of back at square one, right?

522
00:36:41,582 --> 00:36:42,942
So that's the bear case.

523
00:36:43,202 --> 00:36:47,002
So let's actually run your scenario to the end, because that's how you would actually

524
00:36:47,002 --> 00:36:48,262
see whether scenarios are good.

525
00:36:48,323 --> 00:36:52,402
So let's just pretend all of the Bitcoin treasury companies don't outperform Bitcoin.

526
00:36:53,222 --> 00:36:54,623
They all suffer catastrophic losses.

527
00:36:54,742 --> 00:37:00,462
They all sell their Bitcoin, and they all go to zero, with the exception of strategy.

528
00:37:00,462 --> 00:37:07,323
uh like what happens like uh bitcoin movement will like move on and like figure out some different

529
00:37:07,323 --> 00:37:12,202
way to like scale and like try to become mainstream and like further bitcoin as a technology movement

530
00:37:12,202 --> 00:37:18,742
um i can say why i think that bear case is unlikely um i think it's unlikely for a number

531
00:37:18,742 --> 00:37:24,242
of reasons i think it's like one there's there's there's actually like regulatory and tax like

532
00:37:24,242 --> 00:37:30,662
issues like in each jurisdiction where these treasury company models it's likely for them to

533
00:37:30,662 --> 00:37:34,222
accumulate a lot of bitcoin and then if you can imagine the future it's like well you can build a

534
00:37:34,222 --> 00:37:39,902
financial services company by just owning a lot of bitcoin uh or just like have a company that just

535
00:37:39,902 --> 00:37:46,702
endures um you know so from the 2021 era like tahini's is a great example tahini's is a bitcoin

536
00:37:46,702 --> 00:37:50,682
treasury company i'm talking about like the shawarma place from canada they save in bitcoin

537
00:37:50,682 --> 00:37:55,902
they've expanded and they're growing are they a bitcoin treasury company not in the kind of

538
00:37:55,902 --> 00:37:59,862
modern sense where these companies are trying to kind of exploit the financial system to like

539
00:37:59,862 --> 00:38:07,922
inflate their uh you know overall balance sheets um but again like ask yourself like what do you

540
00:38:07,922 --> 00:38:12,582
think then about how business how the business world works in a bitcoin standard and how bullish

541
00:38:12,582 --> 00:38:17,242
are you on bitcoin because like okay so your bull case for bitcoin then is a world where no

542
00:38:17,242 --> 00:38:23,962
companies on bitcoin like what's your what becomes your case it's definitely not that um it's like i

543
00:38:23,962 --> 00:38:27,543
think tahini's is a great example of a like so i've been getting a load of shit on twitter today

544
00:38:27,543 --> 00:38:32,582
i was just telling you about it before the uh the show what's your case for corporate adoption in a

545
00:38:32,582 --> 00:38:38,762
hyper bitcoinized world then so but this is the point is that like i so i have been pretty skeptical

546
00:38:38,762 --> 00:38:42,643
about bitcoin treasury companies again like it's really hard to even bucket them together because

547
00:38:42,643 --> 00:38:46,343
The question is, okay, you believe in hyper-Bitcoinization, correct?

548
00:38:46,523 --> 00:38:48,043
Let me get there.

549
00:38:48,222 --> 00:38:53,222
Because my point is, I think there's strategy are doing interesting stuff.

550
00:38:53,323 --> 00:38:55,023
I think the Prefers have launched really interesting.

551
00:38:55,262 --> 00:38:58,123
I think there's a huge market demand for that.

552
00:38:58,402 --> 00:38:59,882
I think they'll be absolutely fine.

553
00:39:00,323 --> 00:39:03,823
When it gets to the smaller Bitcoin companies that are trying to do the treasury play,

554
00:39:03,922 --> 00:39:08,002
like issue debt by Bitcoin, I think that's rapidly becoming less interesting.

555
00:39:08,002 --> 00:39:13,623
and the things that i am bullish on are like positive cash flow companies putting excess

556
00:39:13,623 --> 00:39:18,882
reserves into bitcoin and and this is why i did the investment into bhodl because they're not just

557
00:39:18,882 --> 00:39:22,162
going to issue a ton of debt and buy as much bitcoin as possible they're actually trying

558
00:39:22,162 --> 00:39:26,063
they've put bitcoin on the balance sheet they're going to try and put that bitcoin to work and

559
00:39:26,063 --> 00:39:30,982
yield on like running lightning nodes we'll see how well that plays out but it's a bitcoin business

560
00:39:30,982 --> 00:39:37,502
not just like a pure cash grab issue debt by bitcoin yeah so i think the thing here becomes

561
00:39:37,502 --> 00:39:43,762
It was like, okay, like in a world where Bitcoin is like fairly mainstream, it's like how much of the business is denominated in Bitcoin?

562
00:39:43,762 --> 00:39:54,082
And so you get into like weird asymmetries right now where it's like from the Bitcoin treasury company's perspective, they would rather pay their employees in dollars so they can accrue more Bitcoin.

563
00:39:54,702 --> 00:40:03,582
Because they think that it's better to pay employees in dollars and then use the Bitcoin they have to like accrue it and accrue more Bitcoin.

564
00:40:03,582 --> 00:40:14,722
So the idea here is like if you have a public company, a company where there is an equity that people have purchased, if it's going to underperform Bitcoin and it's a Bitcoin company, why would you hold it?

565
00:40:16,002 --> 00:40:17,202
That's essentially the question.

566
00:40:17,302 --> 00:40:20,322
This is how they've derived this idea that they need to outperform Bitcoin.

567
00:40:20,802 --> 00:40:27,663
Because in a world where you are put it, so you have bought, yes, you have bought Bitcoin shares in this company.

568
00:40:28,002 --> 00:40:31,663
But for the company to keep going, it has to accrue more investors over time.

569
00:40:31,663 --> 00:40:32,882
That's what a company is.

570
00:40:32,882 --> 00:40:33,582
otherwise it dies.

571
00:40:34,063 --> 00:40:36,422
So like there has to be some reason for other people

572
00:40:36,422 --> 00:40:40,123
along this curve to then buy the shares later.

573
00:40:40,382 --> 00:40:43,322
If it was better for you to have bought Bitcoin

574
00:40:43,322 --> 00:40:45,043
when you invested in that company,

575
00:40:45,462 --> 00:40:47,163
then invested in that company,

576
00:40:47,462 --> 00:40:49,502
then you lost money and you made a bad trade.

577
00:40:50,523 --> 00:40:51,282
Like your...

578
00:40:51,282 --> 00:40:51,962
Which is very possible.

579
00:40:52,322 --> 00:40:55,082
You could have traded those Australian dollars for,

580
00:40:55,623 --> 00:40:59,422
I'm assuming Australian dollars for Bitcoin at a certain rate,

581
00:40:59,563 --> 00:41:02,282
and you got less Bitcoin as a result.

582
00:41:02,882 --> 00:41:06,342
And so the interesting thing with strategy is like strategy outperformed Bitcoin.

583
00:41:06,342 --> 00:41:11,442
Like you put a dollar in and you got more Bitcoin than you could have bought.

584
00:41:11,582 --> 00:41:22,602
This is like this is one of the things about the movement that I know a lot of the 2021 Bitcoiners blanch at, which is this idea that like you give the company capital and it creates more Bitcoin for you than you could have bought.

585
00:41:22,722 --> 00:41:25,962
It's like a weird thing to think about.

586
00:41:26,762 --> 00:41:29,183
But again, it gets to the kind of point where it's like, OK, like.

587
00:41:30,163 --> 00:41:32,862
Let's just imagine that, like, let's just get rid of the specifics.

588
00:41:32,882 --> 00:41:39,523
let's just say that this whole movement right now what it's trying to ask is how will businesses

589
00:41:39,523 --> 00:41:45,722
operate in a bitcoin world how will publicly traded bitcoin businesses operate in a world

590
00:41:45,722 --> 00:41:51,462
that moves towards a future where bitcoin is money for everyone and so if you agree that bitcoin is

591
00:41:51,462 --> 00:41:56,722
going to be money for everyone then businesses have to adapt to that then what this movement

592
00:41:56,722 --> 00:42:00,702
is doing is aligned with our mission because essentially what it's trying to do is answer

593
00:42:00,702 --> 00:42:06,002
this question that doesn't guarantee that all of its ideas are good and 100% going to be correct

594
00:42:06,002 --> 00:42:11,922
but it's directionally moving us in a positive forward direction because it is grappling with

595
00:42:11,922 --> 00:42:17,183
questions that there is no known answer to so we can't possibly know how this will happen

596
00:42:17,183 --> 00:42:22,482
all we can do is build and kind of iterate in a certain direction and that will reach some sort

597
00:42:22,482 --> 00:42:27,902
of conclusion at some point or it won't right I mean who knows right so like it'll have or and

598
00:42:27,902 --> 00:42:30,322
And then the culture will go in some other direction.

599
00:42:30,462 --> 00:42:40,382
But I think it's pretty obvious that we would want to have a conversation about how businesses are structured, how they're capitalized, and how they perform on a Bitcoin standard.

600
00:42:40,382 --> 00:42:49,023
And that these companies, even if they're doing things that are raising money in bad ways that don't make sense, or they're treating investors badly, or they're promising things.

601
00:42:49,163 --> 00:42:50,602
These are all things that are actually happening.

602
00:42:50,722 --> 00:42:54,143
There are companies that have raised money in probably ways that they regret.

603
00:42:54,683 --> 00:42:56,362
There's companies that have underperformed Bitcoin.

604
00:42:56,362 --> 00:43:01,063
and there's companies that are currently worth less than, you know, they've promised.

605
00:43:01,242 --> 00:43:06,082
Like, this is, so, you know, I think more transparency and more discussion around that

606
00:43:06,082 --> 00:43:08,202
is good because that's the forward direction.

607
00:43:08,422 --> 00:43:09,623
Like, that's what people are arguing about.

608
00:43:09,683 --> 00:43:13,102
That's the serious current conversation that's happening.

609
00:43:13,683 --> 00:43:16,663
And so, like, my instinct is just like, okay, let's dive into that.

610
00:43:16,762 --> 00:43:19,543
So, like, you know, Bitcoin treasury is like the emails, the social media, like, whatever.

611
00:43:19,683 --> 00:43:20,802
Like, that's what we're talking about.

612
00:43:20,842 --> 00:43:22,402
Like, let's have a conversation about that.

613
00:43:22,402 --> 00:43:40,902
It's very clear that like, you know, sometimes you just have to experiment in the right direction. Right. 2021, we experimented in all sorts of new directions. Right. Podcasts, books, like all these things were like were new, like they didn't exist. Right. And so they were efforts by the culture to achieve a wider adoption.

614
00:43:40,902 --> 00:43:48,422
and now there's you know we're past peak podcasts was podcasting a mistake like should we we like

615
00:43:48,422 --> 00:43:52,082
we think bitcoin podcasting was was a mistake well it looks like it moved the culture forward

616
00:43:52,082 --> 00:43:57,442
right and it adapted bitcoin to the culture of the times it moved bitcoin forward it's still useful

617
00:43:57,442 --> 00:44:02,342
for the people in the industry uh but we're probably past peak bitcoin podcast like where

618
00:44:02,342 --> 00:44:07,742
we agree i i think peak bitcoin podcasting could be ahead of us still um i think when these treasury

619
00:44:07,742 --> 00:44:13,202
companies blow up we're going to have a real uh a real boost in bitcoin podcasting um but a few

620
00:44:13,202 --> 00:44:20,402
questions on that um one is like which business models will survive because i wonder if the idea

621
00:44:20,402 --> 00:44:26,942
of just sort of diluting shareholders to buy more bitcoin issuing debt like it would be nice if i

622
00:44:26,942 --> 00:44:30,902
think one of the things would be nice to see though it would be more more models right so like

623
00:44:30,902 --> 00:44:36,382
you know uh you know whether it's like you know what bhodl is doing or like companies that are

624
00:44:36,382 --> 00:44:38,782
going to buy and acquire other operating companies.

625
00:44:39,862 --> 00:44:43,782
Yeah, you're going to see a proliferation of other types of

626
00:44:43,782 --> 00:44:45,382
models and some of them will work.

627
00:44:45,382 --> 00:44:47,282
You know, this treasury company that's invested in other

628
00:44:47,282 --> 00:44:49,822
treasury companies like as a model where, you know, a number of

629
00:44:49,822 --> 00:44:51,582
people are coming to market with similar things there.

630
00:44:52,002 --> 00:45:06,905
And it like again it like the Bitcoin culture is very good at like taking an idea and then just like driving it to its conclusion through you know mass speculation And that what we done The whole thing is just somebody gets a good idea

631
00:45:07,025 --> 00:45:08,405
It's like Save a Dean writes a good book.

632
00:45:08,805 --> 00:45:11,165
And so there's a thousand thousand fucking books.

633
00:45:11,625 --> 00:45:16,465
It's like one person does one thing and you iterate on it and you push it to the extreme.

634
00:45:16,645 --> 00:45:20,785
And so like Michael Saylor did this thing and it's like, oh, there's a thousand companies going to do that.

635
00:45:21,165 --> 00:45:22,265
You got to run into the end.

636
00:45:22,265 --> 00:45:49,685
And so, yeah, I don't, you know, I don't think you have to know where the Bitcoin treasuries movement is going. I just think you have to analyze it as like a sociological phenomenon, which is like, okay, what are these people trying to achieve? Like, what do they believe? And are they aligned with the movement? I don't, I think the argument that they would be not aligned with Bitcoin culture is pretty weak. Because again, it's like, if you assume that the Bitcoin is going to be money, then businesses have to adapt to that. And so this is just the culture that's, that's working on that problem.

637
00:45:49,685 --> 00:45:53,085
At the widest view, like that's currently what's happening.

638
00:45:53,765 --> 00:45:55,525
And I don't see that as antithetical to Bitcoin.

639
00:45:56,205 --> 00:46:01,305
Yes, some of their cultural norms, you know, we've talked about this a lot when we talked about the ordinals and different stuff there.

640
00:46:01,385 --> 00:46:06,325
It's like some of their cultural norms are different than the previous Bitcoin monoculture.

641
00:46:07,225 --> 00:46:12,985
But I think what you're going to witness is that this treasury company culture, that's going to become the new Bitcoin monoculture.

642
00:46:13,385 --> 00:46:16,505
And Bitcoin monocultures are pretty short-lived, right?

643
00:46:16,505 --> 00:46:18,825
There's different versions of it at different times.

644
00:46:19,685 --> 00:46:44,925
And I get it. Yeah, it's like, you know, if you haven't seen many of them, it's hard to know, like, how different they were. And like, I think each of them contributed to something, right? Like, I would say, like, you know, with the knots and core thing, this is almost like a referendum on the 2017, like, development culture, where it's, you know, the normative view in 2017 was that fees were going to be high, blocks were going to be full, and Bitcoin was going to scale in layers.

645
00:46:44,925 --> 00:46:49,285
and that, you know, the rules that we set post-Segwit

646
00:46:49,285 --> 00:46:52,365
of, you know, developing a pricing structure for data

647
00:46:52,365 --> 00:46:55,345
that was embedded in transactions that was consistent and fair

648
00:46:55,345 --> 00:46:58,985
and, you know, developing sort of policies that, like, you know,

649
00:46:59,085 --> 00:47:02,945
the developers thought would ensure Bitcoin, you know,

650
00:47:03,025 --> 00:47:04,485
continued in a centralized manner.

651
00:47:04,945 --> 00:47:06,545
Like, that's kind of being chipped at.

652
00:47:06,625 --> 00:47:08,565
So, like, you know, you always have different versions

653
00:47:08,565 --> 00:47:11,105
of the Bitcoin culture that are trying different things.

654
00:47:11,385 --> 00:47:13,305
The culture right now is pretty fractured.

655
00:47:13,305 --> 00:47:15,845
You have a lot of smaller factions than we had before.

656
00:47:17,025 --> 00:47:21,925
There's the Knotts camp, which I think is trying to like take us towards some sort of.

657
00:47:23,645 --> 00:47:33,065
I don't know what they're doing, but they're they're trying to like, you know, they imagine a very, very engaged user within technical development.

658
00:47:33,485 --> 00:47:41,125
And they ultimately are, you know, putting a message to the Bitcoin community that like we are failing potentially by not.

659
00:47:41,125 --> 00:47:42,825
But, you know, they're a culture, right?

660
00:47:42,825 --> 00:47:44,485
Like they're trying to compete to be a monoculture.

661
00:47:44,565 --> 00:47:45,865
They want to be a monoculture, right?

662
00:47:45,905 --> 00:47:46,985
Because they're aspiring.

663
00:47:47,325 --> 00:47:48,505
My culture is really growing as well.

664
00:47:48,505 --> 00:47:53,305
The number of comments I get under every video now talking of like asking me to talk about

665
00:47:53,305 --> 00:47:55,865
knots and corn is insane.

666
00:47:57,045 --> 00:47:58,085
What's your take on that?

667
00:47:58,125 --> 00:47:59,825
Because loads of people have been asking me to cover it.

668
00:47:59,905 --> 00:48:03,345
I did have Mechanic on the show and I had Shinobi on the show maybe, I don't know, four

669
00:48:03,345 --> 00:48:03,985
or five months ago.

670
00:48:04,785 --> 00:48:08,945
I've actually tried to have them on the show again together to debate.

671
00:48:08,945 --> 00:48:13,105
but like the the kind of discourse is broken down to the point where they won't talk to each other

672
00:48:13,105 --> 00:48:17,585
anymore they they won't do it yeah i think like within bitcoin culture the flat the the side that

673
00:48:17,585 --> 00:48:22,145
like waves the doomsday flag is usually the side that has the weaker intellectual position and i

674
00:48:22,145 --> 00:48:27,185
think like on the not side it's like they've been very quick to like you know sort of signal that

675
00:48:27,185 --> 00:48:32,065
like they think bitcoin will fail if like people don't you know go along with what they want and

676
00:48:32,065 --> 00:48:37,185
that's usually like a sign that they just don't have a very strong position um i don't look i've

677
00:48:37,185 --> 00:48:39,505
I've been, you know, I was pretty,

678
00:48:39,905 --> 00:48:41,445
one of the reasons I tried to put forth

679
00:48:41,445 --> 00:48:44,165
a positivistic argument for ordinals and runes

680
00:48:44,165 --> 00:48:46,605
and like sort of meta protocol development on Bitcoin

681
00:48:46,605 --> 00:48:48,585
is that I didn't want there to be a fork

682
00:48:48,585 --> 00:48:49,265
like within Bitcoin.

683
00:48:49,385 --> 00:48:50,005
Like I thought that would have been

684
00:48:50,005 --> 00:48:50,985
the worst case scenario.

685
00:48:51,865 --> 00:48:53,605
I think the knots, you know,

686
00:48:53,665 --> 00:48:55,065
group will eventually fork,

687
00:48:55,185 --> 00:48:56,745
whether it's the current people in it

688
00:48:56,745 --> 00:48:58,965
or a new set of people

689
00:48:58,965 --> 00:49:00,185
or some other group leading it.

690
00:49:00,285 --> 00:49:01,845
That's sort of what happened in the fork boys, right?

691
00:49:01,905 --> 00:49:03,945
It wasn't Mike Hearn and Gavin Andreessen that forked.

692
00:49:04,005 --> 00:49:06,465
It was Jihan Wu and...

693
00:49:06,465 --> 00:49:06,765
Roger.

694
00:49:07,185 --> 00:49:09,365
did all mixed in the, no, not Roger.

695
00:49:10,105 --> 00:49:11,565
But, you know, it was the later people, right?

696
00:49:12,605 --> 00:49:15,625
And so, because ultimately what the Nots group is saying is like,

697
00:49:16,485 --> 00:49:20,885
what is happening on Bitcoin, like, can't have ever happened.

698
00:49:21,365 --> 00:49:22,945
Like, or Bitcoin will fail.

699
00:49:23,045 --> 00:49:27,705
Like, they're actually saying that things that are currently occurring on Bitcoin

700
00:49:27,705 --> 00:49:29,465
should not happen.

701
00:49:29,705 --> 00:49:32,565
And they want us, they ultimately have the most intolerant view, right?

702
00:49:32,625 --> 00:49:37,085
They're saying Bitcoin can only succeed if we do follow this direction.

703
00:49:37,185 --> 00:49:43,485
And so they have the most narrow, intolerant view of how Bitcoin could grow and expand.

704
00:49:44,485 --> 00:49:54,905
And because they ultimately object to things that are currently happening that can't be stopped by anyone, and their whole kind of emphasis is on stopping this thing, they will eventually take some means to stop it.

705
00:49:54,905 --> 00:50:05,625
And I think that they will eventually have to do that through some sort of extreme technical means because, you know, the core developers, I think, have laid out a pretty convincing technical thesis.

706
00:50:05,625 --> 00:50:09,485
Like it's, you know, we have to be tolerant of different uses of Bitcoin.

707
00:50:10,005 --> 00:50:14,425
We have to be tolerant of people doing things that you don't want them to do with Bitcoin

708
00:50:14,425 --> 00:50:17,665
in order to have a system where the rules are better for everyone.

709
00:50:17,785 --> 00:50:21,345
And I think the Knott's vision were like, I don't know.

710
00:50:21,405 --> 00:50:23,385
I just, I find their whole worldview very problematic.

711
00:50:23,385 --> 00:50:28,085
It's like they want to start this sort of coalition to discourage some users from transacting.

712
00:50:28,085 --> 00:50:29,685
And they think that this is good.

713
00:50:29,725 --> 00:50:33,325
And I don't understand why I've asked them hundreds of questions about it.

714
00:50:33,325 --> 00:50:38,765
whatever their specific technical like proclivities are i understand that they don't like yes it's

715
00:50:38,765 --> 00:50:43,465
like okay like we don't want the bitcoin blockchain to become too large great we have a block size

716
00:50:43,465 --> 00:50:48,765
okay you want to relay like you don't want to relay some of these transactions great don't relay

717
00:50:48,765 --> 00:50:54,845
them they're gonna get into blocks uh so like you know um the most charitable view i think is that

718
00:50:54,845 --> 00:51:00,285
like it is great within bitcoin that you can have a dissenting piece of software so it is great that

719
00:51:00,285 --> 00:51:04,865
we can have two softwares and we can have one that most people run and we can have a software

720
00:51:04,865 --> 00:51:10,285
that some people run who don't like what's currently going on. A problem with that on

721
00:51:10,285 --> 00:51:13,885
the technical side though is there's very few instances of that happening within Bitcoin.

722
00:51:14,925 --> 00:51:19,045
So, you know, one of the reasons that if you go back to Satoshi, Satoshi was very against like

723
00:51:19,045 --> 00:51:23,325
multiple implementations of Bitcoin. The core developers have largely inherited this. And the

724
00:51:23,325 --> 00:51:27,825
reason that core is the dominant implementation of Bitcoin is largely because there's a fear of

725
00:51:27,825 --> 00:51:31,905
there being multiple implications okay so knots is like a more benign version of that it relies

726
00:51:31,905 --> 00:51:37,985
heavily on the core culture but eventually like knots if it goes down its road will have to have

727
00:51:37,985 --> 00:51:42,305
a separate implementation and a separate team like we'll have to do that there's just not a

728
00:51:42,305 --> 00:51:45,465
react because like again it's like the farther you you go in the fork it's like these people

729
00:51:45,465 --> 00:51:48,545
will keep updating their software and they'll have to keep up a day and so you're maintaining

730
00:51:48,545 --> 00:51:54,725
these two kind of you know forces in parallel uh which is incredibly costly and takes a lot of time

731
00:51:54,725 --> 00:52:01,625
And so like, you know, there aren't there's only one real instance of like a small dissenting economy, like where people didn't run out of the majority of forks.

732
00:52:01,625 --> 00:52:06,945
And we don't know that much about it or how long it lasted or how much, you know, they transacted or anything like that.

733
00:52:07,345 --> 00:52:10,945
That's something I actually like argued that the core developers should look into that they didn't.

734
00:52:11,165 --> 00:52:12,385
They never really liked that idea.

735
00:52:12,385 --> 00:52:16,065
But if the Nats people are interested in looking into it, it's called The Real Bitcoin.

736
00:52:16,225 --> 00:52:17,705
It was released by Mercia Popescu.

737
00:52:18,085 --> 00:52:24,645
It's supposedly still used by some of his former economy participants in Costa Rica.

738
00:52:24,725 --> 00:52:30,745
but like you know we don't know how long these things can last and so um you know there's just

739
00:52:30,745 --> 00:52:35,265
a cost to continuing this that i think will build up so like yeah the steel man i think it's good to

740
00:52:35,265 --> 00:52:39,445
have dissenting softwares this is like an interesting technical experiment i guess but

741
00:52:39,445 --> 00:52:43,085
i don't ultimately find the knots group to be doing anything like terribly interesting

742
00:52:43,085 --> 00:52:49,565
because ultimately they feel like they're at war with this sort of um you know post fork war um

743
00:52:49,565 --> 00:52:54,705
world where you know why do we have arbitrary data in the bitcoin well those bitcoin's data

744
00:52:54,705 --> 00:52:56,865
and we want to have a script and data

745
00:52:56,865 --> 00:52:58,465
like in Bitcoin in some cases

746
00:52:58,465 --> 00:53:00,945
and you know, yes you can

747
00:53:00,945 --> 00:53:03,025
discourage these things and yes we can build a culture

748
00:53:03,025 --> 00:53:04,885
around discouraging things but you're building

749
00:53:04,885 --> 00:53:06,885
a bunch of tools that I think

750
00:53:06,885 --> 00:53:09,205
could probably be used against people using

751
00:53:09,205 --> 00:53:11,205
transactions that you want to make

752
00:53:11,205 --> 00:53:13,285
and again it's like it's so at odds

753
00:53:13,285 --> 00:53:15,145
with the data, like the stuff's

754
00:53:15,145 --> 00:53:17,185
been around for two years, it's like the blocks aren't

755
00:53:17,185 --> 00:53:18,365
full, it's like the sets are like

756
00:53:18,365 --> 00:53:19,945
Fortnulls has come and gone

757
00:53:19,945 --> 00:53:22,985
it came and had its time, like people

758
00:53:22,985 --> 00:53:24,685
who were there got into Bitcoin through it.

759
00:53:25,085 --> 00:53:26,905
Hopefully they bought some Bitcoin.

760
00:53:27,785 --> 00:53:29,685
But like, there's nothing,

761
00:53:29,885 --> 00:53:30,665
like it's, you know,

762
00:53:30,725 --> 00:53:32,325
they remind me of the big blockers

763
00:53:32,325 --> 00:53:33,725
because again, it's like

764
00:53:33,725 --> 00:53:35,245
they have a very intolerant view.

765
00:53:35,365 --> 00:53:37,145
It's like Bitcoin must succeed one way.

766
00:53:37,325 --> 00:53:37,925
I think there's only,

767
00:53:38,005 --> 00:53:38,785
we must do this.

768
00:53:38,825 --> 00:53:40,065
And if we don't do this, it's a failure.

769
00:53:41,605 --> 00:53:43,465
And that's just a huge red flag.

770
00:53:44,365 --> 00:53:46,085
And then this other idea where it's like,

771
00:53:46,085 --> 00:53:49,645
you know, they say they just want

772
00:53:49,645 --> 00:53:50,845
to not relay these things,

773
00:53:50,925 --> 00:53:51,865
but that's not really what,

774
00:53:51,865 --> 00:53:53,405
They really just don't want them happening.

775
00:53:53,505 --> 00:53:54,405
It's a class thing.

776
00:53:54,485 --> 00:53:55,745
It's like the other thing.

777
00:53:55,805 --> 00:53:56,665
These people are bad.

778
00:53:56,865 --> 00:53:58,605
They're, you know, and we don't want them here.

779
00:53:58,885 --> 00:54:06,045
They want to be able to kind of use their software to discourage people and, you know, make their transactions more difficult.

780
00:54:06,825 --> 00:54:13,705
So, like, you know, it's hard for me to see, like, why that would inspire, like, the whole of the Bitcoin culture to rally behind that.

781
00:54:13,765 --> 00:54:16,385
That's like a very sort of crass message.

782
00:54:16,385 --> 00:54:27,705
It's like, okay, like we're going to build a positivistic version of the future of Bitcoin by encouraging people to like discourage other users from using Bitcoin in ways that we don't.

783
00:54:27,805 --> 00:54:32,425
And look, the nots thing, it's like, sure, now it's fine.

784
00:54:32,505 --> 00:54:33,545
Like you can run nots.

785
00:54:33,545 --> 00:54:57,225
And look, as long as you're not saying crazy things about, you know, how Bitcoin, you know, it'll be illegal to run a node if you run, you know, like very like non-technical things that are just like not, you don't, why would you introduce, like you're introducing attack vectors, like against Bitcoin and claiming that the people doing these transactions are, but like, no, you are doing that.

786
00:54:57,225 --> 00:54:59,085
Like you're the one talking about this.

787
00:54:59,465 --> 00:55:01,585
And like you're introducing this to Acris.

788
00:55:01,725 --> 00:55:02,345
So I don't know.

789
00:55:02,405 --> 00:55:03,385
I think the knots probes,

790
00:55:03,465 --> 00:55:05,685
it's like great that they're running a node.

791
00:55:06,725 --> 00:55:08,045
Descenting softwares are cool,

792
00:55:08,185 --> 00:55:10,705
but like this descending software just for me,

793
00:55:10,765 --> 00:55:15,065
it like doesn't offer like a particularly like compelling vision.

794
00:55:15,425 --> 00:55:16,005
I don't know.

795
00:55:16,005 --> 00:55:17,245
I've talked to Chris Guida and I like,

796
00:55:17,245 --> 00:55:19,265
I like mechanic and Luke and I hope they don't.

797
00:55:19,865 --> 00:55:22,665
I hope they sincerely don't believe that Bitcoin is going to fail.

798
00:55:22,725 --> 00:55:24,645
It doesn't feel like Bitcoin's failing to me.

799
00:55:24,645 --> 00:55:29,325
um yeah this is where i have an issue it's like it's the extremes that the argument's being taken

800
00:55:29,325 --> 00:55:34,225
to where it's like core 30 is going to destroy bitcoin which like i just clearly don't think is

801
00:55:34,225 --> 00:55:38,945
true um i do see fault on both sides like i think core even if they're sort of technically correct

802
00:55:38,945 --> 00:55:42,545
had a real issue with how they communicated what they were doing and the way they don't have a

803
00:55:42,545 --> 00:55:46,825
responsibility to communicate anything to you they don't work for you no no i i i totally understand

804
00:55:46,825 --> 00:55:51,785
they don't have a responsibility like they don't they don't work for me but they like i i think

805
00:55:51,785 --> 00:55:56,425
there's some level of responsibility to like the bitcoin world even even if it's not an explicit

806
00:55:56,425 --> 00:56:01,785
responsibility um and and then on the other side like i don't care if people running arts like run

807
00:56:01,785 --> 00:56:08,645
whatever implementation you want i i think that's cool i also think people are understating the kind

808
00:56:08,645 --> 00:56:13,065
of threat of running an implementation that's maintained just by luke and luke's done amazing

809
00:56:13,065 --> 00:56:17,745
things and like if we can get more people working on knots i think that's interesting and then the

810
00:56:17,745 --> 00:56:21,485
other one is like i think it would be more interesting if the dissenting software was

811
00:56:21,485 --> 00:56:26,605
something like libitcoin which is like a ground up new implementation but that's that goes off to

812
00:56:26,605 --> 00:56:30,065
deep end a little bit yeah you have the consensus risk that like was kind of introduced originally

813
00:56:30,065 --> 00:56:34,485
so yeah i mean like you know the right conversations i think to have about are about okay is bitcoin

814
00:56:34,485 --> 00:56:38,765
going to a world with multiple implications and like is there a net new thing that reduces the

815
00:56:38,765 --> 00:56:43,605
risk to me i don't there's not a net new thing here that reduces the risk of that uh so then

816
00:56:43,605 --> 00:56:45,685
And is there a compelling reason to do that?

817
00:56:46,605 --> 00:56:49,285
In which case, like, you would have to kind of, again,

818
00:56:49,345 --> 00:56:51,845
accept the sort of argument from the Nots group

819
00:56:51,845 --> 00:56:54,345
that like something overwhelmingly negative is happening with Bitcoin.

820
00:56:54,465 --> 00:56:57,985
Like my ability to use Bitcoin has not been impacted over the last two years

821
00:56:57,985 --> 00:56:59,885
and has not degraded or deteriorated at all.

822
00:57:00,445 --> 00:57:04,745
I would category reject almost any argument that would suggest that that is the case

823
00:57:04,745 --> 00:57:08,645
because I can't fathom, like, unless in like 2024 when blocks are full,

824
00:57:08,725 --> 00:57:09,905
it's like, okay, you paid an extra fee.

825
00:57:09,905 --> 00:57:14,265
But again, that is by design, like how Bitcoin is supposed to function.

826
00:57:14,485 --> 00:57:26,205
Like one of the great, you know, tricks of ordinals is that ordinals was a, you know, sort of the kind of genius of it was that it was a thing that was it wasn't what Bitcoin was designed for.

827
00:57:26,325 --> 00:57:30,745
But it like it met the rule set, like it followed the rules of the thing of the protocol.

828
00:57:31,005 --> 00:57:32,445
And they're going to kill me for that one.

829
00:57:32,505 --> 00:57:38,505
But like, you know, it followed the it followed like the OK, this is how transactions are priced.

830
00:57:38,505 --> 00:58:00,245
This is how like competing transactions would be, you know, compete for block space. This is how a block space company would mature. And the developers want to build that because they're biased towards getting us to a place where if in the future blocks need to be full, Bitcoin functions as a technology in a market and in a specific way.

831
00:58:00,245 --> 00:58:04,685
and so you know the argument that i always found was most compelling for ordinals and runes was

832
00:58:04,685 --> 00:58:10,925
that it pushes bitcoin closer to that path and so i think the only question is like okay well

833
00:58:10,925 --> 00:58:16,045
why don't you see any benefit in modeling that because again it's like the block size is four

834
00:58:16,045 --> 00:58:21,045
megabytes no matter what people are putting in they can't extend the block size you by running

835
00:58:21,045 --> 00:58:25,865
the software agree to the consensus which is that you agree to store up to four megabytes worth of

836
00:58:25,865 --> 00:58:31,605
data per block. That is what the consensus rules are. And we are currently adding less than four

837
00:58:31,605 --> 00:58:36,405
megabytes worth of data per block, pretty inarguably. So like, in which case are your

838
00:58:36,405 --> 00:58:42,045
bright, or your expectation as like a user of the, as a user, you're running a node, but you have to

839
00:58:42,045 --> 00:58:46,425
follow the rules. The job of the node is to enforce the rules of the network. So like, it's pretty

840
00:58:46,425 --> 00:58:50,805
obvious that like, we're not adding the maximum amount of theoretical data to Bitcoin that we

841
00:58:50,805 --> 00:58:57,165
could be doing nor with ordinals or any sort of exploit is that occurring and so like you know

842
00:58:57,165 --> 00:59:02,785
some of the people they'll say oh well the demand you know that they both they both think that like

843
00:59:02,785 --> 00:59:06,105
oh god this is like such a long road but it's like they think that like

844
00:59:06,105 --> 00:59:10,865
they simultaneously think that like crypto assets like ethereum and all these things are worthless

845
00:59:10,865 --> 00:59:15,205
but that the demand for them is so great that they'll destroy bitcoin and so it's like a

846
00:59:15,205 --> 00:59:19,505
it's like you can't argue the loop because it's just a it's just it doesn't make sense it's like

847
00:59:19,505 --> 00:59:23,825
they're like oh well ethereum's like worthless but if ethereum comes to bitcoin it'll destroy

848
00:59:23,825 --> 00:59:26,945
bitcoin well why would it destroy bitcoin well because there's so much demand for like all these

849
00:59:26,945 --> 00:59:31,105
like all these assets and all this arbitrary data i was like you just said there's no demand for

850
00:59:31,105 --> 00:59:34,785
arbitrary data so like ethereum's not going to work so what why where's the demand for ethereum

851
00:59:35,585 --> 00:59:38,945
and they're like oh well it'll come to bitcoin and it'll they'll be the demand there's always

852
00:59:38,945 --> 00:59:44,465
demand for coins and it's like okay well then if there's always demand for coins then wouldn't you

853
00:59:44,465 --> 00:59:48,785
want to build bitcoin in a way that it accommodates that such the those transactions like can take

854
00:59:48,785 --> 00:59:54,625
place in a you know non-disruptible and as minimally disruptive way as possible it's like no we like

855
00:59:54,625 --> 00:59:57,825
must repel them and they must go elsewhere and it's like okay so you want your coins to like

856
00:59:57,825 --> 01:00:01,505
continue like no we don't want your coins to continue your coins are going to go to zero

857
01:00:01,505 --> 01:00:06,305
they're a distraction like okay so like what do you want like you know it's like i i almost like

858
01:00:06,305 --> 01:00:13,425
the the knots people it's like they're disingenuous arguers because they they set up these arguments

859
01:00:13,425 --> 01:00:17,425
but they don't actually believe what they're arguing they actually want something else they

860
01:00:17,425 --> 01:00:21,125
They want these transactions to not be possible and to have never existed.

861
01:00:21,645 --> 01:00:25,225
And since I can't give them that, and no human being can give them that,

862
01:00:25,745 --> 01:00:29,865
they will ultimately be very unsatisfied and they won't be able to achieve that.

863
01:00:30,005 --> 01:00:32,525
And so it's hard to know how to interface with that group.

864
01:00:33,105 --> 01:00:36,165
I hope that they don't take extreme measures in the face of that

865
01:00:36,165 --> 01:00:39,725
and do something that would disrupt Bitcoin's narrative publicly

866
01:00:39,725 --> 01:00:42,905
or threaten the use of the software for everyone else

867
01:00:42,905 --> 01:00:46,385
because literally their claim is that what these people are doing

868
01:00:46,385 --> 01:00:50,705
is disrupting the software and if they find themselves in a situation where like they have

869
01:00:50,705 --> 01:00:55,205
to potentially disrupt the use of bitcoin for everyone to make that point that just it's

870
01:00:55,205 --> 01:01:00,165
closed my mind i don't i don't understand it to defend the nost people like to a degree like i do

871
01:01:00,165 --> 01:01:04,945
ideologically understand where they're coming from and and somewhat agree with them and the problem

872
01:01:04,945 --> 01:01:10,905
that because i assume you would call them sort of the monetary maximalists um and and that is what i

873
01:01:10,905 --> 01:01:14,945
want to see bitcoin for but i also understand that it's not up to me what bitcoin is bitcoin just is

874
01:01:14,945 --> 01:01:17,385
and all of these transactions are following the consensus rules.

875
01:01:18,585 --> 01:01:22,525
But the one area that I do think they may be overlooking

876
01:01:22,525 --> 01:01:26,305
is the idea that they don't want to see things like BitVM and Citria

877
01:01:26,305 --> 01:01:28,185
and all these roll-ups and layer twos.

878
01:01:29,685 --> 01:01:32,085
I think they maybe discount the monetary transactions

879
01:01:32,085 --> 01:01:34,705
that may actually happen on these other layers.

880
01:01:35,185 --> 01:01:37,305
And the fact that that could be a huge step up

881
01:01:37,305 --> 01:01:41,745
in terms of people's ability to get Bitcoin in close to self-custody,

882
01:01:41,845 --> 01:01:43,165
at least with a unilateral exit.

883
01:01:43,165 --> 01:01:55,625
The much more interesting conversation we have, if the Knotts folks wanted to have it, would be that they don't believe that the fee market will function in the future where blocks will be full.

884
01:01:55,625 --> 01:01:58,065
so I wrote a piece for Forbes in

885
01:01:58,065 --> 01:02:00,025
2022 called Bitcoin After

886
01:02:00,025 --> 01:02:01,685
2140 where I like was

887
01:02:01,685 --> 01:02:04,005
started to kind of see like that there

888
01:02:04,005 --> 01:02:06,045
were like these weird sort of divisions between things

889
01:02:06,045 --> 01:02:07,525
that I think are sort of manifesting

890
01:02:07,525 --> 01:02:10,125
where it's like the developers

891
01:02:10,125 --> 01:02:12,045
are operating on the premise that blocks

892
01:02:12,045 --> 01:02:14,325
will be full, the fee market

893
01:02:14,325 --> 01:02:16,145
will be competitive and thus we need

894
01:02:16,145 --> 01:02:18,025
to scale in layers like that post the

895
01:02:18,025 --> 01:02:20,225
fork wars that was the status quo

896
01:02:20,225 --> 01:02:22,165
it was the status

897
01:02:22,165 --> 01:02:23,805
quo because bigger blocks

898
01:02:23,805 --> 01:02:28,485
the road towards bigger blocks was a world where a fee market never developed and blocks were never

899
01:02:28,485 --> 01:02:34,405
full so the the fork in the road there was like okay big blocks no fee market blocks are never

900
01:02:34,405 --> 01:02:40,665
full block space always cheap user onboarding always cheap small blocks blocks are always full

901
01:02:40,665 --> 01:02:45,365
fees are always competitive this is best for bitcoin in the long term because it maximally

902
01:02:45,365 --> 01:02:51,825
ensures bitcoin success even in adversarial conditions the fork was over the the big blockers

903
01:02:51,825 --> 01:02:56,405
thought that they could remove adversarial conditions for Bitcoin by Bitcoin being popular.

904
01:02:56,785 --> 01:03:00,285
Thus, they wanted Bitcoin to be free. Thus, they wanted to be widely used. Thus, they wanted to get

905
01:03:00,285 --> 01:03:05,365
regulatory acceptance through that. The small blockers said the best thing for Bitcoin is for

906
01:03:05,365 --> 01:03:09,385
it to be maximally adversarial, for it to be able to succeed in conditions even when it's under

907
01:03:09,385 --> 01:03:13,305
threat by all sorts of authoritarian governments. Therefore, blocks should be small. Bitcoin should

908
01:03:13,305 --> 01:03:18,305
be maximally centralized. Therefore, fees should be high. This is how we solve potentially if there

909
01:03:18,305 --> 01:03:22,225
an issue post-subsidy of how Bitcoin continues in the future. This is how we solve that issue.

910
01:03:23,905 --> 01:03:28,305
I've been calling this the post-Fork War consensus. If you think of the post-World War II consensus,

911
01:03:28,305 --> 01:03:33,345
what was the post-World War II consensus? It was that the US dollar runs the monetary system

912
01:03:33,345 --> 01:03:38,305
of the world. Everyone saves in the dollar. The post-Fork War's consensus was that this was how

913
01:03:38,305 --> 01:03:44,385
Bitcoin was supposed to operate. In which case, Segwit introduced the pricing mechanism for data

914
01:03:44,385 --> 01:03:51,485
like on the chain and which is why we have block weight and so if really what you're arguing

915
01:03:51,485 --> 01:03:57,265
really is that like you don't think that like there is a feed market that needs to develop and

916
01:03:57,265 --> 01:04:02,785
that you don't think that there needs to be like the system for how uh you know that bitcoin doesn't

917
01:04:02,785 --> 01:04:08,685
need to go down that technical path um then that's fine you're just sort of i think shipping out you're

918
01:04:08,685 --> 01:04:12,325
just sort of you're actually on a referendum on something else like it's like what you're talking

919
01:04:12,325 --> 01:04:17,245
about is just something completely different, where you're trying to change how Bitcoin should

920
01:04:17,245 --> 01:04:22,905
operate, or the normative view on how developers think Bitcoin should operate. Core developers

921
01:04:22,905 --> 01:04:27,725
don't think that runes and ordinals are an overwhelming concern. The data would prove

922
01:04:27,725 --> 01:04:31,585
that I think that they were correct, that there wasn't a reason to be overly concerned about them.

923
01:04:32,285 --> 01:04:38,465
The burden of proof should be on the Knotts camp to prove by some means that that has become

924
01:04:38,465 --> 01:04:44,705
sufficiently disruptive for someone to, you know, again, they want some action about this.

925
01:04:44,725 --> 01:04:49,285
They want this demand that they have to be satisfied. But the closest articulation I can

926
01:04:49,285 --> 01:04:54,865
get to their demand is that they want the ability to be disruptive of other users and to discourage

927
01:04:54,865 --> 01:05:02,485
other users from, you know, certain types of transactions. And seemingly the response of

928
01:05:02,485 --> 01:05:06,705
developers is, okay, well, these transactions look like other transactions that we might in the

929
01:05:06,705 --> 01:05:12,345
future want so we will not do that uh because that doesn't actually make bitcoin better in the

930
01:05:12,345 --> 01:05:16,025
long term and so like that's the that's the disagreement so you're you to your point it's

931
01:05:16,025 --> 01:05:22,525
like yes some of the l2s um if you have a you know close of a situated transaction it will look

932
01:05:22,525 --> 01:05:29,065
very similar to a ordinal's transaction and so therefore the software you know and the eyes of

933
01:05:29,065 --> 01:05:35,485
developers like should accommodate that type of transaction you know uh i almost feel like the

934
01:05:35,485 --> 01:05:39,645
not folks like i would be more sympathetic to them if they just presented like we have an alternative

935
01:05:39,645 --> 01:05:43,565
thesis for how bitcoin should work like here's actually how the economics of bitcoin should work

936
01:05:43,565 --> 01:05:48,525
and like just be honest about that you want um something else because i i just find it so

937
01:05:48,525 --> 01:05:53,245
unsatisfying it's like you really really don't want to relay people's transactions that are going to

938
01:05:53,245 --> 01:05:58,365
block anyway really like that's that's your concern you don't want to relay them i don't know like do

939
01:05:58,365 --> 01:06:02,685
i don't even notice relaying transactions i have a note at home like reading like who read like it's

940
01:06:02,685 --> 01:06:03,585
It's not an active thing.

941
01:06:03,645 --> 01:06:05,365
It's not like you have to go to the door and like open it,

942
01:06:05,745 --> 01:06:06,525
like let people in.

943
01:06:06,585 --> 01:06:07,685
It's like this major inconvenience.

944
01:06:07,785 --> 01:06:09,105
You're just relaying transactions.

945
01:06:09,205 --> 01:06:09,885
Like what are you talking about?

946
01:06:09,965 --> 01:06:10,325
Like what?

947
01:06:10,985 --> 01:06:11,245
Okay.

948
01:06:11,305 --> 01:06:13,725
So you have to update your node like more quickly.

949
01:06:13,845 --> 01:06:14,805
It's like nobody told,

950
01:06:14,925 --> 01:06:16,545
like nobody guaranteed you that you,

951
01:06:16,865 --> 01:06:18,925
your node was supposed to last a certain amount of time.

952
01:06:19,025 --> 01:06:19,365
Like what do you,

953
01:06:19,445 --> 01:06:21,645
like you agreed to store up to four megabytes every,

954
01:06:21,765 --> 01:06:22,305
like that's the,

955
01:06:22,325 --> 01:06:23,005
that's the note.

956
01:06:23,125 --> 01:06:23,585
That's the,

957
01:06:24,585 --> 01:06:25,365
that's the system.

958
01:06:25,545 --> 01:06:26,625
Like what are you talking about?

959
01:06:26,625 --> 01:06:27,005
Like what,

960
01:06:27,065 --> 01:06:27,765
so where is the,

961
01:06:28,225 --> 01:06:30,465
where are you being like so inconvenienced here?

962
01:06:31,825 --> 01:06:32,385
You know,

963
01:06:32,385 --> 01:06:37,225
And it's like, okay, well, if you want to scrub that stuff off or you want to get it off your node, it seems like you can do that.

964
01:06:37,285 --> 01:06:40,565
I haven't done it myself, but it seems like people are saying that that's possible.

965
01:06:42,465 --> 01:06:50,685
So this would lead me to be suspicious of their claims because it's hard for me to fathom that that many people are upset about this.

966
01:06:51,325 --> 01:06:53,525
Like, how are that many people upset about this?

967
01:06:53,585 --> 01:06:56,245
So I don't think the Knott's group is, like, homogenous.

968
01:06:56,925 --> 01:06:59,265
Like, I don't think they actually believe the same things.

969
01:06:59,265 --> 01:07:03,765
because it would be extraordinary to me that they believe that it would be extraordinary to

970
01:07:03,765 --> 01:07:08,885
me to believe that there's so many people who care so minutely about the operation of like their

971
01:07:08,885 --> 01:07:14,585
node that's like sits on their desk like wherever uh such that they're like so concerned like about

972
01:07:14,585 --> 01:07:20,585
this particular thing which again i've i as a user of bitcoin sincerely like sincerely to the

973
01:07:20,585 --> 01:07:35,588
nazis have not noticed any change in like the past five years like it works the same i mean but It clearly has captured the imagination of a lot of Bitcoiners Like I think the latest number of like not knows was 28 or something I know that those numbers can be like cooked a little bit

974
01:07:35,648 --> 01:07:38,207
but it's a significant number of people doing this.

975
01:07:38,548 --> 01:07:41,188
Do you think this is like the death of monoculture?

976
01:07:41,748 --> 01:07:41,948
Pardon?

977
01:07:43,108 --> 01:07:43,808
What do they want?

978
01:07:43,907 --> 01:07:44,628
You know, that's my question.

979
01:07:44,788 --> 01:07:45,427
The death of what?

980
01:07:46,168 --> 01:07:48,588
Is this like the death of monoculture in Bitcoin?

981
01:07:48,727 --> 01:07:50,227
Do you think we are now completely divided

982
01:07:50,227 --> 01:07:51,688
into these different subcultures?

983
01:07:52,887 --> 01:07:54,308
Yeah, that's also possible, right?

984
01:07:54,308 --> 01:07:58,748
like maybe mainstreaming Bitcoin is Bitcoin becoming like essentially like adopted by all

985
01:07:58,748 --> 01:08:02,188
these subcultures. Again, I think of the Nots people, it's like, I'm just not 100% convinced

986
01:08:02,188 --> 01:08:05,968
that they're like a reasonable subculture just because I don't know what they want to achieve.

987
01:08:06,048 --> 01:08:09,548
And if they can achieve it, you know, if they can't achieve it, like, I don't know how interested

988
01:08:09,548 --> 01:08:16,107
I am in like the minutia of it. So I don't know. I think that like, it would be nice for core

989
01:08:16,107 --> 01:08:21,948
version 30 to be released. And then, you know, we can all just go and watch the Bitcoin continues

990
01:08:21,948 --> 01:08:27,908
to operate and um yeah i don't know again i i think that um the monocultures uh i don't know

991
01:08:27,908 --> 01:08:33,308
i think the treasury thing really feels like it's the new monoculture it just it feels like that is

992
01:08:33,308 --> 01:08:37,888
what people are excited about are companies buying large amounts of bitcoin what they're excited

993
01:08:37,888 --> 01:08:42,468
about is going like you know a website and seeing like which companies own the most bitcoin and like

994
01:08:42,468 --> 01:08:46,748
how fast they're like you know uh going up that seems to have captured the imagination of most

995
01:08:46,748 --> 01:08:53,348
people. The Nots thing, I think, is, yeah, it's tempting. I think the trap of Nots that I've

996
01:08:53,348 --> 01:08:57,928
always, like, really think, I think the mental trap is that it's tempting to think that, like,

997
01:08:57,968 --> 01:09:04,488
you matter for Bitcoin. And what Nots really offers is a compelling story to the average user

998
01:09:04,488 --> 01:09:11,388
who isn't a Michael Saylor, that they really matter for Bitcoin, and that their action is

999
01:09:11,388 --> 01:09:16,567
necessary for Bitcoin's continued survival. Like, that's the story that's being sold.

1000
01:09:16,748 --> 01:09:36,308
And in this particular instance, I just don't think that story is true. Like, that's not a real thing that, like, you should be concerned about. And because that's not a real thing, I just can't sympathize with it. So, yeah, I don't know. But I understand why you would want it to be true, right?

1001
01:09:36,308 --> 01:09:47,607
Because there's a lot of people from the 2021 era who like made being a Bitcoin or their identity and like their social identity, their cultural identity, like not being in the industry, like just being someone who owned Bitcoin.

1002
01:09:48,408 --> 01:09:50,268
And, you know, 2021 was a great era.

1003
01:09:50,408 --> 01:09:51,047
I love 2021.

1004
01:09:51,388 --> 01:09:52,268
We were all on Twitter.

1005
01:09:52,607 --> 01:09:53,788
Everyone was sharing ideas.

1006
01:09:54,148 --> 01:10:00,527
It was truly a time where it felt like most people in the movement were equal and that everyone was involved.

1007
01:10:00,908 --> 01:10:03,127
And it was the peak sort of grassroots Bitcoin.

1008
01:10:03,268 --> 01:10:05,107
It was us against like the crypto institutions.

1009
01:10:05,107 --> 01:10:05,868
I get it.

1010
01:10:06,308 --> 01:10:13,348
I understand. I was there. I was there for that part of it. I left the crypto industry and I

1011
01:10:13,348 --> 01:10:23,308
understand why you wanted to achieve that. And I was there. But is it still true that you individually,

1012
01:10:24,087 --> 01:10:30,127
it's so tempting. It's like, I get it. You want to feel like you are important for Bitcoin because

1013
01:10:30,127 --> 01:10:35,968
that's how the old culture sort of scaled. So I think this is sort of how we know with

1014
01:10:35,968 --> 01:10:41,248
jumped to the other culture is like this is the old culture break it down like why can't we scale

1015
01:10:41,248 --> 01:10:46,027
to the bitcoin culture being everybody part of the bitcoin culture because everybody can't be

1016
01:10:46,027 --> 01:10:50,928
part of the bitcoin culture if you go to a this is the analogy i've been using for the sibling

1017
01:10:50,928 --> 01:10:58,468
um you go to an internet cafe in the 1990s you're danny you have the internet show everybody watches

1018
01:10:58,468 --> 01:11:03,667
your internet show and you know we are all friends because we're on the internet well

1019
01:11:03,667 --> 01:11:05,748
because of Trump's election

1020
01:11:05,748 --> 01:11:08,268
every coffee

1021
01:11:08,268 --> 01:11:09,348
house is going to have internet

1022
01:11:09,348 --> 01:11:12,328
there isn't an internet cafe anymore

1023
01:11:12,328 --> 01:11:14,368
you don't go to an internet cafe to use the internet

1024
01:11:14,368 --> 01:11:16,227
there is internet at every cafe

1025
01:11:16,227 --> 01:11:18,448
and so I don't go to a cafe

1026
01:11:18,448 --> 01:11:20,227
there is no internet cafe

1027
01:11:20,227 --> 01:11:22,308
and I think Knott's is

1028
01:11:22,308 --> 01:11:23,708
sort of really what Knott's is

1029
01:11:23,708 --> 01:11:26,288
it's the continuation of the

1030
01:11:26,288 --> 01:11:27,648
internet cafe fable

1031
01:11:27,648 --> 01:11:29,607
this idea that you are

1032
01:11:29,607 --> 01:11:32,288
still part of the movement and that you

1033
01:11:32,288 --> 01:11:36,868
can still be culturally part of it when really what's happening is the technology is scaling and

1034
01:11:36,868 --> 01:11:41,167
it's going to become so ubiquitous that it is impossible for us to have that relationship with

1035
01:11:41,167 --> 01:11:45,868
it anymore you know the analogy that i've used is like how many internet protocols are facilitating

1036
01:11:45,868 --> 01:11:51,148
this conversation we're on riverside which is on the internet which is on you know it's going to be

1037
01:11:51,148 --> 01:11:56,688
on your youtube with this show which is going to be on the website and what do you know of like the

1038
01:11:56,688 --> 01:12:02,848
actual workings like if any of these technical protocols what do you know wi-fi what do i know

1039
01:12:02,848 --> 01:12:07,928
of your wi-fi what do i know of your modem what do i know of this hotel's modem what do i know

1040
01:12:07,928 --> 01:12:13,328
about whether this is on a lan i don't even i don't even know what a lan i barely know what a

1041
01:12:13,328 --> 01:12:21,087
lan is uh so like so what what are you talking about like what are you well sincerely what are

1042
01:12:21,087 --> 01:12:26,328
you talking about like like that this is the future of bitcoin is the progression of technology is

1043
01:12:26,328 --> 01:12:30,928
that is it's getting people away from it sure are there some people who are probably like somewhere

1044
01:12:30,928 --> 01:12:36,008
helping us have this conversation you know in the bowels of the internet i don't know i can't

1045
01:12:36,008 --> 01:12:43,308
conceive of who they are but thank you i guess right i think um so yeah i don't know man i just

1046
01:12:43,308 --> 01:12:47,627
find it really tough i just i i get it i really under i feel like i understand what they're

1047
01:12:47,627 --> 01:12:51,908
actually what you're actually upset about but it just there's no way for the technology to

1048
01:12:51,908 --> 01:12:56,848
you know because it's like oh if we everybody runs knots and not just bitcoin and then like we helped

1049
01:12:56,848 --> 01:13:02,667
save bitcoin it's like okay yeah i think i get it i get it i get why you want that to happen um but

1050
01:13:02,667 --> 01:13:08,208
like maybe that's a you thing and like not a everyone in bitcoin thing to bring it back to

1051
01:13:08,208 --> 01:13:13,587
the start i mean we i think we could go around a circus on that i i it's a really hard conversation

1052
01:13:13,587 --> 01:13:17,547
because i feel like whoever we're talking about like we're obviously talking about the knots people

1053
01:13:17,547 --> 01:13:21,087
here more specifically than the core people like they're going to be pissed off that we're having

1054
01:13:21,087 --> 01:13:26,408
this conversation and not representing them in some way um because they are so like fervent um

1055
01:13:26,408 --> 01:13:30,868
in this mission and i think some of that comes off the back of like the fork walls as well where

1056
01:13:30,868 --> 01:13:35,488
people are just like hey this is why we made the decision like here's like why we think it's a good

1057
01:13:35,488 --> 01:13:39,727
idea no the core people definitely aren't and this is why i've not been super desperate to cover it

1058
01:13:39,727 --> 01:13:43,208
much because it's just like i don't see this as like mempool policy is not something i'm going to

1059
01:13:43,208 --> 01:13:47,748
get crazy irate about like i i think it's fine if you want to run different limitations but at the

1060
01:13:47,748 --> 01:13:51,067
end of the day i'm not that bothered about this i don't think it's a threat to bitcoin right i

1061
01:13:51,067 --> 01:13:57,788
So I think what I would like from Knott's is like, okay, can you provide us with some sort of positive vision for this?

1062
01:13:57,788 --> 01:14:02,348
Like, you know, what's the right, like, give me something here.

1063
01:14:02,448 --> 01:14:10,308
Because I can't get behind slightly inconveniencing, like, the crypto people who I like actually want to use Bitcoin.

1064
01:14:10,448 --> 01:14:11,808
Like, it's just not offering me anything, really.

1065
01:14:12,208 --> 01:14:16,607
And so, like, I have no, like, give me some sort of, you know, steel man.

1066
01:14:16,648 --> 01:14:18,308
Like, why should I support your cause?

1067
01:14:18,308 --> 01:14:21,988
Well, it's like, you know, well, you know, you'll kill Bitcoin if you don't.

1068
01:14:21,988 --> 01:14:24,388
I was like, okay, well, you know, it's like, give me something else.

1069
01:14:24,547 --> 01:14:28,708
You know, it's like, give me, okay, well, you know, maybe core shouldn't have that much power

1070
01:14:28,708 --> 01:14:30,227
and users should have other options. Cool.

1071
01:14:30,788 --> 01:14:34,227
Raise the money, build a developer team, sustain it for a couple of years.

1072
01:14:35,508 --> 01:14:41,988
You know, I sent this to like a reply on Newt Van Holmes tweet, but I was like,

1073
01:14:41,988 --> 01:14:44,868
you know, it's like, if you're happy with not, it's like, why are you so unhappy?

1074
01:14:44,868 --> 01:14:51,768
like just be happy running nuts if it was that great of an experience running knots then everyone

1075
01:14:51,768 --> 01:14:54,968
would run not because like it would be so overwhelming your joy of like being a knots

1076
01:14:54,968 --> 01:14:58,527
would be like so overwhelming and like your benefits like would be so over that like people

1077
01:14:58,527 --> 01:15:04,368
would you know like what does sailor's vision offer sailor's vision offers you the ability to

1078
01:15:04,368 --> 01:15:09,107
be the banker and the ceo and for bitcoin to be the bankers and the ceos for bitcoin to revolutionize

1079
01:15:09,107 --> 01:15:13,547
the financial system and to borrow into the annals of wall street and take it over from the inside

1080
01:15:13,547 --> 01:15:18,448
Like it's a great, it's a great vision. He's got it. He's got, he's got a great pitch. It's great.

1081
01:15:18,948 --> 01:15:24,488
You know, uh, it's big in scope. It's like wide, it's participatory. It offers like this idea that

1082
01:15:24,488 --> 01:15:28,648
you can become, you know, you can further the Bitcoin movement, but gain financially.

1083
01:15:29,368 --> 01:15:33,288
So what did like, what's the utopian vision of knots? Like, okay, well, we're all going to be

1084
01:15:33,288 --> 01:15:37,087
obsessed with like, who's using Bitcoin and we're all going to like fight about like, who's using

1085
01:15:37,087 --> 01:15:41,188
Bitcoin and we're going to like develop custom software to stop them if we don't like them.

1086
01:15:41,188 --> 01:15:42,928
and it's like, or again, not stop,

1087
01:15:43,047 --> 01:15:44,188
sorry, slightly inconvenient,

1088
01:15:44,308 --> 01:15:45,587
then we'll raise their costs slightly,

1089
01:15:46,308 --> 01:15:47,748
such as that they can't use it.

1090
01:15:49,727 --> 01:15:50,468
So I don't know.

1091
01:15:50,547 --> 01:15:51,808
Yeah, it's unsatisfying.

1092
01:15:51,888 --> 01:15:52,968
And I think like as Bitcoin users,

1093
01:15:53,148 --> 01:15:54,527
like how we create these cultures

1094
01:15:54,527 --> 01:15:56,308
is like ultimately like a call to action

1095
01:15:56,308 --> 01:15:57,688
like has to be strong, right?

1096
01:15:58,148 --> 01:15:59,688
So I think I've outlined like,

1097
01:15:59,748 --> 01:16:01,288
okay, what is Sailor's Utopian vision?

1098
01:16:01,428 --> 01:16:02,487
Like, why is it catching on?

1099
01:16:03,047 --> 01:16:04,308
Like, why is it a big tent?

1100
01:16:04,567 --> 01:16:05,107
Like, and like,

1101
01:16:05,208 --> 01:16:06,708
maybe less, we can run knots through that.

1102
01:16:06,788 --> 01:16:08,428
It's like, why is knots like somewhat limited?

1103
01:16:08,428 --> 01:16:13,948
Well, it's like it just feels like it can't be the forward direction of the movement.

1104
01:16:14,188 --> 01:16:16,508
It doesn't feel like Bitcoin scales down that path.

1105
01:16:17,107 --> 01:16:20,627
It doesn't feel like Bitcoin gets any safer down that path to me for the reasons that you said.

1106
01:16:20,748 --> 01:16:28,027
You know, we might find ourselves in a situation where like a single software with a single developer is sort of like calling most of the shots, which seems net worse than the current.

1107
01:16:28,688 --> 01:16:33,828
Even if you hate bureaucracies and like large meritocracies deciding things, like it just seems like kind of net worse.

1108
01:16:35,008 --> 01:16:37,167
You know, and so what's the vision?

1109
01:16:37,167 --> 01:16:44,708
and and um yeah it's like okay best place scenario like yeah i don't know it's like some jpegs like

1110
01:16:44,708 --> 01:16:48,607
aren't on the chain i don't know i was fine with the jpegs like i made my arguments about the jpeg

1111
01:16:48,607 --> 01:16:52,688
that's actually one of the like interesting things about it though is that if you take this to the

1112
01:16:52,688 --> 01:16:58,627
absolute extreme and you say okay tomorrow 99 of people are either running knots or running core

1113
01:16:58,627 --> 01:17:04,547
like which do you think is the better outcome and and i struggle to know how someone who is on the

1114
01:17:04,547 --> 01:17:09,188
knots camp would think that's a better outcome like maybe they do maybe they have their reasons

1115
01:17:09,188 --> 01:17:14,968
but like having 99 of the nodes run by knots which is maintained by one person i know it's a

1116
01:17:14,968 --> 01:17:20,288
fork of call but there's like pretty there's like a lot of changes in there um like that seems like

1117
01:17:20,288 --> 01:17:25,928
an obviously worse outcome to me yeah i think like an outcome where you lose the 10-year like

1118
01:17:25,928 --> 01:17:30,027
meritocracy that has been craved around core like i think like one of the last lessons of the four

1119
01:17:30,027 --> 01:17:35,727
wars is like how much effort it took into extending the bitcoin development team into being as large

1120
01:17:35,727 --> 01:17:41,708
as it was um and how the checks and balances that were enacted around this where there's like

1121
01:17:41,708 --> 01:17:45,047
funding there's like different people working on different parts of the database there's like a

1122
01:17:45,047 --> 01:17:49,107
whole kind of like elaborate culture of review and like early in bitcoin history that's like not

1123
01:17:49,107 --> 01:17:53,848
a thing right like in some cases like software was like you know you look at like old software

1124
01:17:53,848 --> 01:17:57,648
that like were released on like a three-month timeline it's like you know and like now it's

1125
01:17:57,648 --> 01:18:01,328
the level of review and the culture of the funding and like how much the improvements have been

1126
01:18:02,288 --> 01:18:06,527
so ultimately what you know this is the other problematic part of the knots group is that you

1127
01:18:06,527 --> 01:18:11,167
know ultimately really what they don't like is like democratic meritocracies this is why they

1128
01:18:11,167 --> 01:18:14,768
like you know have the memes about like don't take the core vaccine like you know it's like

1129
01:18:14,768 --> 01:18:20,928
it's like a cleverly paid plays into the 2021 era like anti-covid it's like like it's culture

1130
01:18:21,487 --> 01:18:27,167
that was mainstreaming bitcoin so it's like to me it's like i get where this comes from it comes

1131
01:18:27,167 --> 01:18:31,727
from users wanting to feel important. It comes from the these are the people who are left over

1132
01:18:31,727 --> 01:18:38,607
from the anti-vax kind of adopting Bitcoin culture movement who find that not speaks to them because

1133
01:18:38,607 --> 01:18:43,408
it offers them a way to rebel against authority. But then the correct question is like, is that

1134
01:18:43,408 --> 01:18:47,888
authority worth rebelling against? And if you rebel against it successfully, then what occurs?

1135
01:18:48,527 --> 01:18:53,167
And so like, if you analyze that question, is this authority like worth rebelling against?

1136
01:18:53,167 --> 01:19:18,547
I don't think so because in the 16 years of Bitcoin, there hasn't been anything better created than this, which is a large multi-stakeholder, like the meritocratic process where it's very hard to change Bitcoin. That was the whole point. And your antithesis of this, what you're offering in exchange, can only be at best a large meritocratic process in which it's very difficult to change Bitcoin run by different people.

1137
01:19:18,547 --> 01:19:24,708
like that's your bull case is that you is that oh this is a large meritocratic process like run by

1138
01:19:24,708 --> 01:19:29,148
the wrong people so we're gonna make a large meritocratic process like run by the right people

1139
01:19:29,148 --> 01:19:33,667
and like oh that will be better and it's like well no like the thing is the good probably like

1140
01:19:33,667 --> 01:19:39,527
this is the best case scenario for the for is that this is the best model uh you know maybe if

1141
01:19:39,527 --> 01:19:43,968
there's two like large meritocratic processes like competing for bitcoin okay maybe that you

1142
01:19:43,968 --> 01:19:48,768
got me there. Maybe that would be good. But then, you know, prove to me how you can solve the

1143
01:19:48,768 --> 01:19:53,768
technical issues, which we know at the root here, is that if these things actually do progress to

1144
01:19:53,768 --> 01:19:57,708
being separate implementations, like, they'll, you know, there are known risks with that. So,

1145
01:19:57,788 --> 01:20:03,288
like, you know, solve the actual root problem. But no, they just want to supplant the other,

1146
01:20:03,648 --> 01:20:08,208
you know, they don't, they're just interested in becoming the new large meritocratic culture. So,

1147
01:20:08,848 --> 01:20:12,487
you know, I think that the challenge here is to sort of evaluate these things and run them to the

1148
01:20:12,487 --> 01:20:16,227
end and sort of say like okay like well what what is the actual solution that you're offering here

1149
01:20:16,227 --> 01:20:20,748
and it looks exactly identical to the same version so even if you disagreed with the core version

1150
01:20:20,748 --> 01:20:27,567
you can just not upgrade and if i was on the not side i would just be desperately trying to get

1151
01:20:27,567 --> 01:20:32,648
developers like getting eyeballs on the code um because you don't want this to be something where

1152
01:20:32,648 --> 01:20:37,288
luke's just shipping code without like very good peer review and but let's move on from the not

1153
01:20:37,288 --> 01:20:45,808
stuff um just to close out can we talk a bit about sailor's utopian vision so yeah because he has been

1154
01:20:45,808 --> 01:20:52,527
very careful about what he said in terms of like bitcoin helping the us helping the us dollar

1155
01:20:52,527 --> 01:20:58,987
being an ally in this sailor's obviously a very smart person do you think he believes that or do

1156
01:20:58,987 --> 01:21:05,908
you think he's selling a narrative so bitcoin gets adopted as quickly as possible um it's impossible

1157
01:21:05,908 --> 01:21:10,148
for me to know i don't know seller well enough to to know to answer that question uh the question i

1158
01:21:10,148 --> 01:21:13,428
think that might be more interesting is is that the prudent path for the bitcoin movement or is

1159
01:21:13,428 --> 01:21:19,908
there another option available um and so you know right now it's like uh let's just say we didn't

1160
01:21:19,908 --> 01:21:24,388
want to be a participant in that uh well there's a lot of other cryptocurrencies like in and around

1161
01:21:24,388 --> 01:21:29,508
washington dc that like you know uh now have their own digital asset treasury movements and you know

1162
01:21:29,508 --> 01:21:33,587
from this perspective of the trump family don't seem all that different from bitcoin in terms of

1163
01:21:33,587 --> 01:21:39,508
you know their utility to the administration so i don't know how to answer that right i don't know

1164
01:21:39,508 --> 01:21:46,148
i don't i try to look at things uh i i do sometimes have strong reactions to things but i try to look

1165
01:21:46,148 --> 01:21:51,487
at things and sort of say like okay like um just describe them let's start before you have a feeling

1166
01:21:51,487 --> 01:21:55,848
on it just describe them right okay so like bitcoin is is mainstreaming now in the united

1167
01:21:55,848 --> 01:22:01,448
states and it's happening along with the expansion of the dollar uh i probably personally would have

1168
01:22:01,448 --> 01:22:07,468
liked to see a world where other countries that have been excluded from the financial system

1169
01:22:07,468 --> 01:22:13,527
like were not continued didn't continue to live under sort of you know the repression under the

1170
01:22:13,527 --> 01:22:18,268
dollar that Alex Ladstein and other people have written about pretty eloquently I don't think I

1171
01:22:18,268 --> 01:22:25,288
will get I'm so I'm not entitled to that I don't think I will get that and I don't think that that

1172
01:22:25,288 --> 01:22:31,547
will kill Bitcoin. Like, that's just, I will have to accept the reality where that most people wanted

1173
01:22:31,547 --> 01:22:38,908
this outcome. And I don't think, you know, will Bitcoin be any net worse? I think the reality is

1174
01:22:38,908 --> 01:22:44,268
the dollar is going to be a lot stronger for a lot longer. This is always my, you know, so I do think

1175
01:22:44,268 --> 01:22:50,127
there's two things that I think that's interesting about that. It's, you know, I don't know how much

1176
01:22:50,127 --> 01:22:54,167
the people who are using the crypto ecosystem to advance the dollar really get Bitcoin. I don't

1177
01:22:54,167 --> 01:22:57,328
really know what their incentive alignment is long term. I have a lot of questions about that.

1178
01:22:58,408 --> 01:23:04,587
And then the question is, is the stablecoin movement so successful that they actually

1179
01:23:04,587 --> 01:23:08,727
increase the strength of the dollar so much that it like breaks the models of the Bitcoin

1180
01:23:08,727 --> 01:23:12,928
treasury companies? Because the Bitcoin treasury companies are sort of largely based on this idea

1181
01:23:12,928 --> 01:23:17,388
that Bitcoin has a consistent compound annual growth rate. And because that compound annual

1182
01:23:17,388 --> 01:23:21,047
growth rate can be calculated, you can make derivative financial instruments off of it.

1183
01:23:21,047 --> 01:23:24,968
it's the whole thing so if you're really looking for like one little jenga piece at the bottom

1184
01:23:24,968 --> 01:23:30,888
uh i was talking to jeff walton about this but like you know maybe the hypothetical is you know

1185
01:23:30,888 --> 01:23:35,047
the stable coin industry is so broad because again like there's two ways to increase the

1186
01:23:35,047 --> 01:23:41,328
price of the dollar it's like you either you know uh limit the supply or you increase demand right

1187
01:23:41,328 --> 01:23:45,868
and so you could you it's theoretically possible that stable coins could increase demand for us

1188
01:23:45,868 --> 01:23:50,328
dollars so much such that the us dollar stops declining against bitcoin that's theoretically

1189
01:23:50,328 --> 01:23:56,748
possible. And so the question is, like, do these dollar, do the dollar, pro dollar faction groups,

1190
01:23:56,928 --> 01:24:02,067
you know, are they so successful that they break some of these models? That's where you get that,

1191
01:24:02,167 --> 01:24:05,328
that's where the, you know, if you really were looking for like a weak leg in the treasury

1192
01:24:05,328 --> 01:24:10,607
movement, you know, maybe you see something like that, right? Because Saylor's whole thesis is

1193
01:24:10,607 --> 01:24:15,248
predicated on Bitcoin continuing to go up over time at a consistent rate. You can't do financialization

1194
01:24:15,248 --> 01:24:19,408
if that doesn't happen. But if you're biased towards hyper-Bitcoinization, you would expect

1195
01:24:19,408 --> 01:24:25,888
that to happen so i don't know man it's a it's a hard game i don't know i i would find that a hard

1196
01:24:25,888 --> 01:24:31,348
one to believe just in this like the idea that i'm sure demand for us dollars will go up but i'm sure

1197
01:24:31,348 --> 01:24:37,188
supply of us dollars will go up faster like is my left curve take on that yeah that's a reasonable

1198
01:24:37,188 --> 01:24:41,788
stance right but i'm i posit it because i think it's uh it's an outcome that people seem to not

1199
01:24:41,788 --> 01:24:48,107
consider that seems possible because if you think that like okay well you know if you look at what's

1200
01:24:48,107 --> 01:24:55,548
going on in, um, you know, Korea and Japan and, uh, Russia and China, how successful do you think

1201
01:24:55,548 --> 01:25:01,148
their stable currencies are going to be in the crypto market? And so the crypto market is 99%

1202
01:25:01,148 --> 01:25:06,328
dollarized, then that means that their economies are eventually going to wither and go to zero and

1203
01:25:06,328 --> 01:25:11,648
that the U S dollar will be the beneficiary of that. Um, you know, yeah, yeah. I mean, I think

1204
01:25:11,648 --> 01:25:17,928
that, um, yeah, the, that'll set up the scenario where, you know, Bitcoin and the dollar sort of

1205
01:25:17,928 --> 01:25:24,688
the remaining ones and and like that is implies that the u.s dollar demand would increase like

1206
01:25:24,688 --> 01:25:29,368
tremendously like a world like a world where like you know bitcoin was the sorry the u.s dollar was

1207
01:25:29,368 --> 01:25:34,508
the was the only like remaining fiat currency like you would imagine that like demand for dollars would

1208
01:25:34,508 --> 01:25:40,188
be astronomical i think that's probably a likely scenario but i think if they got that they would

1209
01:25:40,188 --> 01:25:46,008
also increase the supply to benefit themselves tremendously sure i'm just positive because i

1210
01:25:46,008 --> 01:25:50,567
think it's a fun like thought experiment and i'm not 100 convinced that it's impossible

1211
01:25:50,567 --> 01:25:55,027
and i'm not 100 convinced that the participants who are pushing it don't think that it's possible

1212
01:25:55,027 --> 01:26:00,067
i think that they they might think that it's a plausible outcome and if they think it's a

1213
01:26:00,067 --> 01:26:03,587
plausible outcome i would be interested in that but yeah i don't know man it's um

1214
01:26:03,587 --> 01:26:07,447
what's going on you know we're always we always have so much to catch up on

1215
01:26:07,447 --> 01:26:14,447
do you think the path to hyperbitconization then is first every country basically being a de facto

1216
01:26:14,447 --> 01:26:16,167
on the US dollar?

1217
01:26:17,567 --> 01:26:18,947
Well, CK always said

1218
01:26:18,947 --> 01:26:19,828
hyper-dollarization

1219
01:26:19,828 --> 01:26:21,227
and then hyper-Bitcoinization.

1220
01:26:21,727 --> 01:26:22,627
That's an old meme

1221
01:26:22,627 --> 01:26:23,808
that I think has been lost

1222
01:26:23,808 --> 01:26:24,487
in Bitcoin culture.

1223
01:26:24,607 --> 01:26:25,667
So if I could put anything

1224
01:26:25,667 --> 01:26:26,328
in anyone's ear,

1225
01:26:26,447 --> 01:26:27,388
it's that I think CK

1226
01:26:27,388 --> 01:26:28,708
was 100% right about

1227
01:26:28,708 --> 01:26:29,587
hyper-dollarization

1228
01:26:29,587 --> 01:26:30,667
before hyper-Bitcoinization.

1229
01:26:31,167 --> 01:26:34,067
And I think he's collecting,

1230
01:26:34,408 --> 01:26:35,508
he was saying that in 2020.

1231
01:26:36,648 --> 01:26:37,968
And I think that's

1232
01:26:37,968 --> 01:26:39,808
probably a likely scenario.

1233
01:26:39,968 --> 01:26:40,627
Just because, again,

1234
01:26:40,688 --> 01:26:41,248
the administration

1235
01:26:41,248 --> 01:26:42,868
is pushing this stuff so heavily.

1236
01:26:42,868 --> 01:26:49,408
But yeah, TLDR, I think, right, we're living in a cultural change in Bitcoin.

1237
01:26:49,587 --> 01:26:51,968
There's like a new movement and kind of a new monoculture.

1238
01:26:52,428 --> 01:26:54,788
I think it's important to kind of analyze what it wants to achieve.

1239
01:26:54,928 --> 01:26:57,708
I think that monoculture is like pretty aligned with like hybrid Bitcoinization.

1240
01:26:58,567 --> 01:27:02,127
I think I explained sort of like, you know, why even in a worst case scenario, I think

1241
01:27:02,127 --> 01:27:06,148
what they're working on generally is like interesting and should be of interest to the

1242
01:27:06,148 --> 01:27:06,688
Bitcoin movement.

1243
01:27:06,688 --> 01:27:13,727
the knots and core stuff you know i i i think again i i i think that will go where it goes

1244
01:27:13,727 --> 01:27:21,148
because i i don't know i i it's hard for me to like see that i don't see the bull case for that

1245
01:27:21,148 --> 01:27:26,428
playing out uh i could be wrong i don't know maybe i'll start running knots but i i don't know um

1246
01:27:26,428 --> 01:27:30,487
hey yeah and then with the stable coin stuff right like that's uh yeah that's the big concern

1247
01:27:30,487 --> 01:27:35,727
right the ghost of mark goodwin yeah i mean that's one of my favorite books in bitcoin um

1248
01:27:35,727 --> 01:27:40,468
all right well rizzo this has been well i always love talking to you man um we should catch up

1249
01:27:40,468 --> 01:27:45,248
again for bitcoin's birthday we can do some predictions for 2026 yeah it has to be sufficiently

1250
01:27:45,248 --> 01:27:49,188
long enough for now though because uh you know it has to be long enough for things to be confusing

1251
01:27:49,188 --> 01:27:55,708
but um yeah man i don't know i would i would encourage you to maybe off your uh 21 you know

1252
01:27:55,708 --> 01:28:01,567
your 2021 cultural stodginess of uh you know it's sort of um there's nothing about bitcoin that's

1253
01:28:01,567 --> 01:28:04,828
really changed just because there are other cultures that are doing new things with bitcoin

1254
01:28:04,828 --> 01:28:10,727
like it doesn't doesn't really you know you know if they're successful that's great for you you own

1255
01:28:10,727 --> 01:28:15,468
bitcoin like you know if they're unsuccessful then we're kind of back at square one no ring

1256
01:28:15,468 --> 01:28:21,048
yeah i mean that's true and like buying bitcoin whoever's buying bitcoin is cool but i just

1257
01:28:21,048 --> 01:28:25,508
i i think it is important that people continue to push like the values that are very important to me

1258
01:28:25,508 --> 01:28:29,888
about bitcoin yeah that's that that's a big question right like it's like is does the two

1259
01:28:29,888 --> 01:28:33,947
these companies become so large that they compete for bitcoin demands but they have to buy bitcoin

1260
01:28:33,947 --> 01:28:39,227
anyway so it's like their demand is sort of pegs it's like suggesting that like three percent fruit

1261
01:28:39,227 --> 01:28:45,548
juice like you know competes with like 100 orange juice and it's like okay like kind of you know

1262
01:28:45,548 --> 01:28:49,067
i'm less likely to buy a coconut because i can go buy a coconut water in like a cave

1263
01:28:50,748 --> 01:28:56,987
so i i decreased the demand for raw coconuts how dare you yeah i mean somebody has to buy the

1264
01:28:56,987 --> 01:29:02,587
coconuts and then you know process them into some sort of drink that i can buy right um yeah i mean

1265
01:29:02,587 --> 01:29:05,127
I mean, because there's so much stuff in that.

1266
01:29:05,167 --> 01:29:06,227
We don't need to get back into it.

1267
01:29:06,248 --> 01:29:09,947
Because the problem with that analogy when it comes to treasury companies

1268
01:29:09,947 --> 01:29:11,567
is where are they holding the coconuts?

1269
01:29:11,828 --> 01:29:14,607
And they're just giving all the coconuts to Coinbase and Anchorage

1270
01:29:14,607 --> 01:29:15,428
and all these other people.

1271
01:29:17,308 --> 01:29:19,548
But, Rizzo, we've covered it.

1272
01:29:19,908 --> 01:29:23,368
I might put that on top of Bitcoin that are yield-bearing.

1273
01:29:24,248 --> 01:29:26,408
Yeah, well, then there'll be another shit show.

1274
01:29:27,447 --> 01:29:29,227
Right, let's catch up for Bitcoin's birthday.

1275
01:29:29,667 --> 01:29:32,567
We'll do it on January 9th, just to honest.

1276
01:29:32,587 --> 01:29:34,808
But yeah, but I appreciate you, man.

1277
01:29:34,848 --> 01:29:35,408
This has been fun.

1278
01:29:35,748 --> 01:29:36,127
Okay, man.

1279
01:29:36,468 --> 01:29:36,748
Peace.

1280
01:29:36,928 --> 01:29:38,667
Sorry for offending anyone who's running nuts.

1281
01:29:39,328 --> 01:29:40,067
We love you.

1282
01:29:40,148 --> 01:29:41,027
Stay with us.