Any impartial observer can
see about Trump
as he really likes
numbers go up
and he likes being credited
for a number going up.
If you're saying that
there will be no large
crashes in Bitcoin
ever again,
you're also saying
that there will be
no periods of mania
with both tops ever again
navigating a bull market.
If you go to the bathroom
for 5 minutes
or 3 minutes or whatever,
you might come back
and there'll be another 4
or $5 million of exposure
to your position.
I just hope more
and more people realize
that there is a way to save.
Now that doesn't require
being a hedge fund manager.
Savings is the thing,
and that is what Fiat
has destroyed, to the point
where everyone's a gambler.
And now I realize that
almost all of sports
is fueled by gambling
almost exclusively.
Like all the media
content is not about what's
this interesting,
in-depth interview
about this athlete
as a person?
No, it's like
the injury report
so that somebody
can change their fantasy
football lineup.
There's only
one entity on the planet
that can really make things
ugly and dark.
For Bitcoin and Bitcoiners,
it's only
the state Department
of the United States.
Corey welcome
back to the Bitcoin
Infinity Show.
Thank you
for joining us again.
It's great to be here.
Hey there Luke.
Let's go.
I love it. Let's go.
Let's go Corey.
First of all,
thank you very much for for,
taking me to Istanbul
a couple of months
back, like,
I, I enjoyed that immensely.
We went to a little bitcoin
meet up there
and, had had some fun times.
I got to try a proper kebab
without without the sauces.
I hear
that's like how they do
the men is in Istanbul.
I recently saw a,
cooking YouTube clip.
Where, where,
some guy was trying to make
proper kebab, and it's,
well, it's a Istanbul
is a special place.
Let's just say that.
The seasoning
is already on the meat
when they cook it.
That's the whole.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah.
It's been marinated, man.
I it feels like that
dinner just ended.
That was a marathon.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, it was,
it was intense for sure.
And, but,
what a beautiful place.
Yeah.
People everywhere but
but nice people.
I mean,
Istanbul is special.
Sure. It's it's truly.
It's a bridge
between the east and west.
Yeah, it really is.
I, I try to describe
to people
who haven't been there
what it's kind of like.
And because a lot of people
have been to Rome
and how cool it is
to see the old
mixed with the new
because their buildings
from 20,
20, 500 years
ago, things like that.
Well, Istanbul is like that
because it's a city
that's been there for
millennia,
and there are buildings
there that date to,
you know, 4 or 500 BC,
and then everything since
except Rome
is like maybe fewer
than 2 million people.
And it's not a
commercial center,
and Istanbul
has 18 million people,
the same as the New York
metro area
or the same, as, you know,
basically all of LA County.
And it's all just plopped
right on top
of all that
ancient architecture.
And so it's just
this bustling metropolis.
It's the biggest city
in the world
for three quarters
of the years
since Christ and,
you know, there's
no other major city
that compares
for a thousand miles
in any direction.
And, yeah, it's it's
it's different.
Istanbul is built different
now.
It's truly special.
I mean,
the traffic is horrible,
but other than that, it's,
it's. Don't drive anywhere.
Yeah.
And I still think
it should change
it back
to make like
or not Constantinople.
Make like
or just the proper name.
Right? Right. Luke.
Is that what
the Vikings that came down
and hung out
for a little bit called it?
Yeah, yeah,
they came down
and then hung out
for a little bit.
But exactly what they did.
No.
Great.
All right.
So, so I think for
most of our listeners
probably know
you since before,
and if they don't,
shame on them.
But I think a lot of people
would like to hear
whatever you,
whatever beans
you can spill on the
on the whole swan
story thing. Like what?
What is
can you give us an update
on Swan?
Where what's
where is one
is at at the moment
and what's going on.
Yeah yeah yeah sure.
So on the,
on the financial services
side,
kind of the wealth platform
for years
and families and stuff
like this is all crushing
and doing great
as you can imagine.
And and a budding
bull market.
So revenue is up
something like two
year over year. And,
so yeah,
very, very happy with that.
Rolling out new products.
We've got a waitlist
coming out
for our pretty
awesome products
that a lot of people
are excited about.
So that'll come out
next week,
the week of the
16th of December.
And then.
Yeah, I mean,
just just just growing fast
and navigating
a bull market,
you gotta got a tiger
by the tail.
In this situation,
phone's
kind of ringing
off the hook,
and all the sales
guys are are busy
all the time,
as you can imagine.
So, you just don't want to.
Don't want to mess it up
when you have these kinds
of tailwinds.
And then,
I think you're probably
also asking about, mining
because we,
not not our own decision
to get out of the mining
business back
in, back in August.
It was,
it was somebody else
decision to,
to take our mining business.
Unfortunately,
I can't really
talk about it.
What's what's in
public is in the filings
and covered by the press,
but the rest is
just working its way
through the courts.
But, obviously,
we built a really
valuable business, and
and we have pretty
strong claims over the value
that we that we delivered.
And,
and we'll see
how it plays out.
But it's really just kind of
a separate thing.
Now that's, that's just,
you know, managed
basically outside
the main business of Swan.
And it doesn't
really affect us.
Okay.
So so
business as usual
on the normal swan side.
So yeah. Speak.
Yeah I'll well
love the partners.
We have big fan of
of equity Trust,
which is 50 year old company
that kind of created
the alternative assets
in retirement
accounts category.
So they're
profitable and huge,
and that's
got our retirement accounts
now, which is awesome.
Back doors handling
brokerage, which is,
much better tech platform
and much deeper pockets.
They're majority
owned by Ice,
which owns New York
Stock Exchange.
And you know, chairman of
is Kelly Lafleur's husband.
And she's now
the head
of the Small Business
Administration under Trump.
So they're connected.
They've got New York.
They've got you know,
they're just
it's a much better platform.
We've got limit orders
coming for everybody.
You know, a lot of
people wanted that.
We'll have,
we'll have interest
bearing accounts
for USD deposits
paid in Bitcoin,
the same as,
what River
announced a few months ago.
So we should have that
in the next few
months as well.
So I just think there's
a lot of cool stuff coming.
Working on getting, into,
asset backed loans
for all 50 states
in the first half of,
of 2024.
So just kind of product
expansion with,
with better partners
as this whole,
you know,
crypto infrastructure space,
all the vendors that serve
Bitcoin companies
are getting
better, maturing,
getting rid
of the bad players
that weren't very good
and things like that.
So just kind of allows
us to be the,
the point of contact
for families and businesses
looking to build wealth
in Bitcoin.
They end up needing
a lot of different products
and services
that they want serviced
by Bitcoin experts
because their,
you know, their
their private
wealth management
guy doesn't
speak this language
and doesn't
understand Bitcoin.
And we do.
That.
He doesn't speak C plus.
Plus is that
is that the language.
Anyway, I think
we had a conversation
about this in Istanbul,
about like the equities,
the ETFs,
all the paper bitcoins
that the,
the big exchanges
may or may not have,
strategic bitcoin reserves
for nation states
and all of this stuff.
And I remember
you saying,
like the conclusion of the,
of the, the conversation
we had
was sort of like,
sort of like all roads
lead to Bitcoin
like this, that,
that really this black hole
phenomenon that, that
it where's the wealth
gonna go.
It can only go to Bitcoin
in the end.
Like can you expand
on that a bit.
Yeah I mean
I think that's that's true.
And and we've seen it
being borne out
over the last few years.
And Bitcoin's growth story,
which by the way,
I think will continue
even past the point
where volatility
is dramatically reduced.
So in a few decades
when we're not
still experiencing,
you know,
price booms and busts,
I think the growth
rate of Bitcoin
will still be
the best risk
adjusted return
for any major asset
class out there
for quite some time.
Eventually, you know,
maybe end of the century
or something
will be
finally surpassed again
by by businesses
building value
with with Bitcoin
as the risk free rate.
This Bitcoin's
purchasing power increase
as the risk free rate that
they've got to hurdle over.
But until then,
you know, any
any instrument,
any business or
any any bond offering,
any stock offering,
you have to really consider
whether it's made better.
And that means
is the risk reward better by
leveraging Bitcoin for it.
So this is what we see
with, multiple
companies now.
In November
was kind of an explosion of,
of more companies
issuing large convertible
debt offerings.
So not just MicroStrategy.
You had,
$2 billion
offerings from marathon.
Both of them were actually,
scheduled for
less than a billion
and ended up
getting oversubscribed.
Then you had
to do a 500 million offer,
and then you had riot do.
They offered 500,
ended up
oversubscribed into 525.
And then you have the,
the smaller guys
that aren't
doing convertible debt
because they don't
have the size
and the liquidity
to do the
convertible offerings,
but they're continuing
to do the stock offerings.
Right. So that's similar.
Some of these
smaller players,
like the Mata planets
and stuff,
are doing
these, these stock offerings
and they're,
they're using the same logic
that MicroStrategy
is promoting about,
you know, essentially
this, this massive,
this multiplier tier
and that asset value.
And if that's high,
it's accretive
to issue stock
and buy Bitcoin with it.
And that then flows
through to your
balance sheet.
You don't recognize
it as earnings.
But in some ways
there's an argument
to be said
that it kind of is
because what's
the point of earnings
in the first place.
Earnings
accrete to the assets
on your balance sheet.
That's the whole point
right.
So you're
just kind of skipping a step
and you're not flowing it
through the business.
You're just
beefing up your balance
sheet by by playing
this are
between the value
of your stock
and its premium
over your bitcoin holdings.
So that's
it is super fascinating.
And then these convert
buyers are seeing returns
that they've never seen
in their markets.
They're also
seeing volatility
like they've never seen.
So I've been talking
to a lot of the folks
I mean we had
a big Wall Street
firm convert
desk out
with us on on Monday
with some of our
clients and partners
and just kind of picking
their brains and,
you know,
anybody that shows
up on a podcast
and seems eloquent
about this,
you know,
I'll grab them and grab
a quick conversation
with them.
Sometimes I'm just
using the frickin audio
call function on Twitter,
and I'll just call somebody
that seems like
they send
something intelligent,
they pick up,
and all of a sudden you're
driving around L.A.
talking to some rando
in Switzerland or something.
But, yeah, it's it is
it is roiling markets.
It is making
a whole different class
of investor,
obviously, the kind of
day to day stock punters
that you see on Twitter,
but an entire entire,
swath of Wall Street,
and I'm assuming London
as well,
now has to pay attention
to this
because it's
changing what they do.
And they have to.
I was
listening to,
Richard Bosworth, who's,
smart farmer,
a convert trader
who's been
in the Bitcoin space
for a while.
I think
he's on the board of,
of relay over in Europe,
in Switzerland.
And he was talking
to one of his convert
trader friends,
and it's like,
that guy
can't go to the
bathroom anymore
during the day.
Like, he just.
You just can't
you can't leave your desk
because you have to be there
monitoring your delta hedges
and your gamma hedges
and all this shit
and like it.
You know,
if you go to the bathroom
for 5 minutes
or 3 minutes or whatever,
you might come back
and there will be another,
you know, 4
or $5 million of exposure
to your position
because it's moving
around so fast.
And that is,
you know, traditionally
more of a boring,
not boring.
I mean,
it's exciting for bonds.
Converts are
more interesting
because they have
an option in them. But,
yeah, it's a different
ballgame for these guys now.
And and the buzz,
you know,
when I was in New York
the early part of this week
and the buzz around this
and the curiosity
and the number of people
that will come out
to come and chat about it
or clear
time in their schedule
to just kind of
talk about Bitcoin,
because Bitcoin has now
crossed over
into their world.
It didn't really cross
over that way with the ETFs.
The you know, a few firms
have ETF departments.
And they added Bitcoin.
And it was the same buyers
of Bitcoin
that you know
usually were there
a few more people were able
to get exposure to it.
But it's basically one long.
And you know mostly the
the leveraged
and the options on on
the ETFs is again,
kind of for asset managers.
It wasn't like a different
asset class the way,
the way that the crossover
has been
into the DAP markets.
So there's just a
it's a
it's a different energy
that that conversation
is again.
Absolutely.
And unlike
let's see,
let's see if I can,
like, break this down
to like,
try to explain it to
maybe not a five year old,
but an 11 year old and,
see, see if I got it right.
And feel free to, to,
correct me
at any point here.
But if I were to explain
what MicroStrategy
is doing to
to an 11 year old,
I would say that they
they're they know
that there's a thing
that's going down in value,
and that's the thing
that's going up in value.
And they're trying
to get rid of the ones
that the
the one that is going down
and accumulate
as much as possible
over the one going up.
Now they have,
a lot of money,
so they can get cheap loans
because they can
use their equity
as collateral.
It's that it's that. Right.
Like, that's
that's how they,
So it's close, I think
on the
first point,
what their arbitrage thing
is, the cheap
cost of credit.
So loans
are artificially kept low,
which makes sense
because governments
are wildly indebted.
And so they
artificially keep
interest rates low
so that they can afford
to pay their debts.
Yeah.
They're basically using
the Cantillon effect
to their advantage here.
Yes.
So, so
and and the reason
that they can pay
their interest
because it's not zero
and it's not negative
is that they have like
$400 million of profit
from their core business
a year
or something like that.
Right?
They do have profits.
But at this point, it's
also almost irrelevant
because the interest
payments are not high.
They've issued
all their recent
convertible debt offerings,
have had 0% coupons.
So, you know,
I think they've got one big
offering at 2.2%
and another 1 to 0.87%,
and the rest are at zero.
And okay.
And basically what
slides is if if you have,
yeah, I mean, you basically
if you have a higher
interest rate,
then you can put
the strike price
on the convert
higher as well.
If you have a lower
interest rate,
you have to lower
the strike price.
So they've
basically made the
the trade off of saying,
okay, we'll take that
slightly lower strike price.
And therefore you investor
in the convertible
bond,
have a better chance
of being in the money
when this converts to stock,
in exchange
for not paying interest
as they go.
All right.
So so if we,
if we extrapolate this
and see what
like try to predict
the future here
and we try to,
envision like a thousand
MicroStrategy
is trying to do
exactly the same thing.
Is it an infinite game?
It's like this,
the infinite money glitch.
Can they do this forever?
Like my argument
against the MicroStrategy
fanboys here,
is just to play
the devil's advocate
is that the underlying asset
is, of course,
the the risk
free version
of MicroStrategy stock,
because at some point,
Michael can
can change his mind
and just sell
everything like that
can still happen.
Like,
and you don't have that risk
if you hold your own case
like that as well.
Except that
you can change your mind
or you can time lock them.
And, you know, doesn't
even matter
if you change your mind.
So, so
so how long can this game
go on like does?
Is this the beginning
of the end of fiat?
In general?
Like, can
they just
cancel on the
fuck out of this thing?
And then if Fiat just dies
at one point
because everyone is playing
this game.
Look,
this is the speculative
attack, right?
This is this
this, by the way,
this is institutions coming.
ETFs were not
ETFs was
like a way for people
to buy more Bitcoin.
And it's one for one
and like it.
It was like a step.
There's the sea change
that's happened
really in the last month
just since
the beginning of November.
And I think
I think the real signal
is probably
that another company
was able
to do
a large convert offering.
So when you saw
a marathon able to do one
and then two, by the way,
on the back of losing 134
million in Q3
and the market
still snapped up
their convertible
offerings like crazy.
And then you saw Hut
and Riot
be able
to do the same thing.
And it's it's just math.
Like there's
these stocks have volatility
and there's an embedded
call option
and convertible debt
off in a convertible
debt instrument.
And you can price it in
if they offer it at less
than what
the bankers spreadsheet
or the buyer.
Allianz, you know,
bought a quarter
of one of Microstrategy's
convert offerings.
If in their spreadsheet it
says this is a good deal,
then they buy it
and that's it.
It's just math.
So look, there will be
there will be a local
top for this.
There will be
some kind of mania
where it gets overbought
and they get overextended
for sure.
That's that's guaranteed
because that's just how
markets develop.
So there will be
some kind of,
you know,
lby mania at some point
probably in 2025.
And it'll probably be
part of what causes
a blow off
top in the Bitcoin price,
which means we will
probably have a crash.
I'm not a I'm
not a no more big crashes
because if you're saying buy
if you're saying
that there will be no large
crashes in Bitcoin
ever again,
you're also saying
that there will be no
periods of mania
with blow off
tops ever again.
But so I will say, like,
if there's not a point
in 2025
where we go up
two weeks in a month,
then maybe we have a shot
at not having a big crash.
But if we go to like,
you know,
150 or 200
and then at two axes
in four weeks,
that's, that's the mania.
And they'll probably be
a bunch
of like crappy companies
issuing convertible bonds
and the market
still snapping them up.
And those people
are all going
to lose their shit
because they don't have
the kind of leverage ratios
and the size
and the liquidity
that MicroStrategy has,
or they have businesses
that lose money
instead of make money,
things like that. Right.
So you know, it is it is
it's the most
easily identifiable,
risk for both.
What will cause a mania
and what will cause
a large pullback is this.
And it won't be because
of MicroStrategy.
It'll be because
of a lot of shitty
companies copying them.
And it'll be a bunch of
unsophisticated players
that don't understand
the difference between
this convertible
debt offering
and that convertible
debt offering,
you know,
plowing a bunch of money
into this, thinking
that it's an it's
it's a money glitch
if you do it right.
It's not
always a money glitch.
And then I wanted to
just get back
to, you know,
what you were saying?
Like, you know,
I, I've been using the term,
like your
sovereignty multiple.
So basically,
how much more valuable
is bitcoin and cold storage
than another asset,
whether it's bitcoin linked
or whatever
that's not in cold storage.
And like,
you know, I've run
polls on this.
I think people
I mean, based
on what I see in behavior,
I think they probably,
slant the polls
a little bit,
but it usually comes out
that all the answers are
in the 5 to 10 X range.
I do think that
broadly, Bitcoiners
assign
something like a
50 to 100% premium.
So like 1.5 x to two x.
Now that's not
the super freedom
minded people.
Like it's in near
infinite, right.
And people
that don't trust the system
or people
that have been de
banks before.
Like, you know, there
there are people
that skew that.
But I think the,
the mean
is something like a 50
or 100% premium
over value
held in the system.
You know, and I'm
sure that's colored by me
being in the US, and it's
dramatically higher
for people
in Lebanon and Turkey
and other places. Right.
But yeah, but
you need to
discount the value
and the expected
returns of any instrument
that's not fucking Bitcoin.
And I don't think
a lot of people
are doing that.
I see a lot of people
that don't understand
Bitcoin whatsoever,
and haven't done the work
to understand what it means
to actually have value
completely outside
of the system.
And they haven't
really thought through
and quantified that.
And I think it's
a really good,
vector for education
in the coming months.
And having
that proof of work
and putting that education
out over the next six months
or 12 months
before
what will probably be
it's a debt speculation
mania in 2025.
At some point,
it'll be nice to already
have everything
you can point to
about how you know.
Okay, well, here's
all these resources.
Remember Self-custody.
But specifically,
this is how much
more valuable
and having frameworks
and models behind why
self-custody Bitcoin
is so much more valuable
than paper, Bitcoin or
Bitcoin linked anything.
Yeah.
So I see it as
like, a
bank account is really a two
out of three
multisig between
you, the bank
and the government.
So, so so the, the
the ratio is
how much do you
trust yourself
in comparison to,
that 2 or 3 multisig.
That's that's
the two you're comparing.
So how much do you trust
your own brain
and how much do you trust
the government basically.
Yep I agree.
Yeah.
And I think like for
for the US
you say like 1.5 for the US.
It sort of makes sense
because like the US
it's not it's
printing money like mad.
But it can because it's it's
the master money printer.
So it's taking
taking advantage
of all the other money
printers out there
in that sense.
And it's also,
not freezing assets
just randomly
that often like,
in that sense, you,
you can sort of trust
the banking system
to a, to a, to a larger
extent than you can
the Turkish
banking system,
I guess, like
just an example.
Yeah.
And people feel like,
you know, to some degree,
people feel like
they have recourse
that you can
you can go after it with,
you know, a
decent lawyer and,
and go seek some justice.
Or as you've seen with
the cycle,
the election cycle here,
you know, it's
kind of self-correcting.
So whether or not
you believe
there was a mass
wave of the banking,
the people that wanted
to push that narrative
that there was,
were able to go and,
you know,
basically influence DC
and kind of take over
in the in,
in a legal election
process with legal campaign
donations and legal lobbying
and, you know, essentially
legalize gambling
forever in America.
Yeah.
Oh, so
how how much do you think
the election like,
how much of this
recent bull run
is because of these,
bitcoin leveraged equities
and how much is
because of the election,
like Trump was taking credit
for the whole thing I saw.
But like.
Well, they're intertwined.
Like I think the the,
the red wave.
And then also
I mean, remember
there were a bunch of,
there were a bunch of
crypto
backed Democrats
that won their races as well
because it just doesn't
take that much money
to sway a horse race
for the most part,
unless you're going
after somebody
that shares a committee or,
you know,
speaker of the House
or something like that,
like a few hundred
thousand dollars
or a million bucks
will completely change
that race.
And, you know,
some district in Iowa
or something like that.
And, you know,
so they
they basically went
after candidates
on both sides.
This was like the Coinbase
and Andreessen Horowitz
and basically
all the crypto cabal people,
backed a bunch of candidates
on both sides
that would play ball
with the crypto guys
and get them out
of jail free.
And they
it was an 85% success rate,
85% of the candidates
that were backed by
the crypto PACs, one.
And so
basically took over Congress
and the white House and,
you know,
and it's it
is what it is like.
I, I think at this point,
it's the last battle.
And I've been
talking about this a lot.
You know,
frankly, for a year now,
Bitcoin has been separated
from crypto
in the minds of the market,
the media
and most
investors, investors
that actually have money,
they see bitcoin
as like saving
and investing.
And then crypto is gambling.
And so
and just paying attention
to like the media landscape
I've had,
you know, enough
enough bandwidth
the last couple of years
after startup mode
to start paying attention
to basketball again,
which is awesome.
It ain't the 90s.
It's not the balls
and the Sonics, but,
you know, the product's
pretty good.
And the
the player, the talented.
But all of the advertisement
is either crypto
or sports gambling.
And it's only
those two things.
And interestingly,
I now have a whole
different view
of like sports media
because I work in Bitcoin
and observe
this other thing
called crypto
and how they do things
and now I realize that
almost all of sports
is fueled by gambling
almost exclusively.
Like all the media
content is not about,
you know,
what's this interesting
in-depth interview
about this athlete
as a person?
No, it's like
the injury report
so that somebody
can change their fantasy
football lineup or,
you know,
change the third leg
and their seven leg parlay.
And it's basically
it's it's all kind of
just a regressive tax
on people
that are gambling
to try to get ten bucks
or 100 bucks ahead on what
they're gambling,
instead of putting
a little bit away
and saving for
the long term.
And that's
what really is at play.
It's basically saving
versus gambling.
Is bitcoin versus
crypto in sports,
gambling in Vegas, in Macau
and all of
and running numbers
and all of these things
that that go back millennia.
Right. This is not new.
We saw people
like playing dice in Rome,
you know.
But I wasn't there.
But I know they weren't,
playing,
you know,
little gambling games
and stuff.
And it's just the education
of the lower
and middle classes
that you have a way now
to get ahead
by just saving a little bit.
Whatever you can and
putting that into Bitcoin,
you know, that's that's
hopefully
I mean we've seen that more
and more people
see it that way
and that it's
working out for them
because there was just
a massive pleb class
that came in in like 17, 18.
And it's changed their lives
since then just by stacking
daily or weekly
since 2017, 2018,
2019, 2020.
It's it's
a big, big boost
and helping them
get their parents
retired and
buying cottages or whatever
it is you know,
like it's it's
changing things for
for people
further down
the economic ladder,
which is beautiful.
So I just
I just hope more
and more people realize
that there is a way
to save
now that doesn't require
being a hedge fund manager
and that doesn't require,
permission to access.
That's the main thing.
Like, anybody can do it.
And that's never existed
before.
It's got me thinking,
by the way, that I,
I think
like you basically take
that, you know, the,
the big square
of the store of value
and it's like, well,
Bitcoin's down here
and here's stocks
and here's bonds
and here's real estate.
All right.
And all this stuff.
And it's like
you take that entire
1 quadrillion box
and then you add another
1 quadrillion box
next to it,
which is that
people will store more value
instead of
instead of wasting it
or spending it
or gambling it,
it won't flow
into the earnings of
the gambling complex
it will get stored.
And so I think
we'll actually have
a massive expansion
just like,
you know, the example of,
you know, if
Uber was going to take
some percentage
of the cab market,
that kind of sucks.
But if they were
going to expand
dramatically the size of
the market, expand the Tam,
the total
addressable market,
well, that's a big business.
I saw
another example of this
just this week on Twitter.
It was,
God, what was it?
It was some kind of
I think it was
soc2 compliance.
So just think about
security, right?
Like it's important
to partners of ours.
You know, we work
with like
registered investment
advisors and, you know,
wealth managers
and shit like that.
And they want to know
that like, okay,
are you guys soc2 compliant?
You know,
this is like
security things.
And that was really,
really expensive.
And the total Tam
for that annually in
the US was like $100 million
a year.
And a startup was like,
well,
we're going to
do that better.
And it was really hard
for them to raise
because they were
like, well,
you're going to take
10% share
and make $10 million a year.
Who cares? Right?
They make $100 million a
year now
because they expanded
the market dramatically,
because people want
that credibility of Soc2
other partners
are asking for it.
They just couldn't
afford it before
it was made easier.
And so now we are making
well, not we we
we all Bitcoin itself.
Thanks.
Satoshi has made
storing value easier
so it's more attractive
to store value
than to do other things
with your value.
No it's fantastic.
And from from an Austrian
economics perspective,
this is the process
of civilization
having a lower time
preference.
That's the
delayed gratification.
You know, saving up fish,
in order to save up time,
to construct a fishing net
or a fishing rod
to catch more fish per,
per time unit.
That's that is civilization.
Savings is the thing.
And that is what fiat
is, has destroyed
to the point
where everyone's a gambler
and that is that.
That is what's
destroying civilization.
And the ability
giving back the ability
to save to to the people.
It's the it's
the process of civilization.
Like coming back and
and making us
civilized again.
And how ironic, then, that
the Bitcoin conferences
in Las Vegas this year.
But yeah,
it is low time preference.
And that is what
this game is all about.
Yeah.
I mean they
if Bitcoin were a company,
I think that conference
would have,
violated its
licensing agreement
long time ago.
But anybody can use it.
And that's the
beautiful part about it too.
Absolutely.
If the permission lessness.
Luke, what are your thoughts
on all of this?
Yeah.
I, I got,
little thread here
with the security angle,
and you mentioned SoC two.
This happens to
still be my day job
in cybersecurity.
And,
the a topic
that's that's kind of
come up for us
a little bit
lately is the trade off
that people have to make
between security
and convenience.
And in the Bitcoin context,
what that really
comes down to
is that
exchanges are
the convenience,
but they also provide
a layer
of security in the sense
that the exchanges
themselves
are basically providing
the security
unless they get hacked.
It's a it's a it's
a third party.
You have to trust it.
But if the exchange
is saying
that we are secure
to a certain extent,
then that's something
that's a little bit
easier than taking
full self-custody.
And we,
of course,
advocate for going
the full self-custody,
rabbit hole, all of that.
But it's it's
not necessarily
easy, straightforward.
Have you thought about
this challenge
in terms of onboarding
new people
into the ecosystem?
If we're going to run
into scalability problems,
basically with
with people
being able
to onboard
fully
into self-sovereign Bitcoin
because of this secure
security, convenience,
issue here.
Yeah, for sure.
I think,
you know, I was a big reason
why we bought,
specter back
in 2022 and built
Swan Vault,
which is,
you know,
I it seems pretty clear
it's the easiest,
simplest,
most understandable way
to onboard into multi-sig
and have self-custody
with two out of three.
That's just what we hear
over and over again
by people
that have been through that
and lots of other ways
to onboard.
It's just by far
the simplest.
And we
we tried really hard
to make it boomer proof,
you know, and,
and it's
really fucking good.
And you've got
an amazing team.
Some of the former specter
guys and reared in code,
you know
every day working on this,
making it amazing.
And and it is really,
really good.
And so we are
getting a lot of clients
now go straight
from their first Bitcoin
purchase into a vault,
which is awesome.
I've always loved
the way that unchanged
as it
where you know,
every single customers
in two out of three,
you know,
whether they're ready
to take two of the keys
or one of the keys
is up to them.
But the incentive is set up
the right way,
right where I think they,
if you take two keys
and Unchained holds one,
they don't charge you.
Or maybe it's like
minimal or something.
And then if they
take two keys
so they're trapped
because they have to.
I think Unchained has one.
And then they have
a trust company
down the street
that holds the other one
or something like that.
So there's a little charge
for that, which
totally makes sense.
I, I remain
not a fan of,
you know, kind of
not even having like,
a legal
structure difference.
Okay.
I think that's one thing
that some people miss
about the crypto
exchanges is like, once
you get over
a certain amount of Bitcoin,
you know,
you're going to
into Coinbase Vault,
like if you're a
Coinbase customer
and that that is actually
in a trust company.
So they own a trust company.
Gemini owns a trust company.
Bitcoin IRA owns
a trust company.
So they have segregation
of brokerage and custody,
which is how the traditional
finance world works.
And it's what
all of their
institutional customers
require.
And so I think
that's something
that a lot of people
miss that
with retirement clients,
with wealth manager
clients like we have
like they expect and require
in their due
diligence, separation
of brokerage and custody.
So we can't have it
all under one roof
unless we were going
to have two different
ways of doing custody.
And so we can't do
it like River does,
and we can't do it
like Celsius
and FDX did
and have brokerage
in custody under one roof.
With that liability
of having your commingled
funds,
you know, in one place.
Right.
And, you know, I think that
we have to do a good job
of educating
why that's better
or just why that's
that's factual
and mandated
for the client segments
that we serve.
And, you know, and frankly,
the brokerage clients
we're trying to get them all
to take self-custody
or at least have like
our super elevated mega,
security custody
with that called
where they have to do
video calls and shit
like that.
So that's like,
you know,
mega secure or whatever.
And I think, you know,
somebody like
Unchained doesn't face that
because all their clients
are in a two out of three,
which I fucking love.
It's just really hard
to scale.
Right.
They have they have a great
smaller set of clients.
And then otherwise,
you know, if you do the,
the full thing,
then you start.
So if you're,
if you're river,
then you start to
educate people
on proof of reserve.
And you have to prove
sort of publicly
where the coins are,
you know,
and hopefully that
will get from,
you know,
monthly reports
to weekly reports
to daily reports
to real time
or I don't know what the
what the path
is to giving people
comfort of how
their coins are stored.
But I do think it, you know,
basically bifurcates
into people
kind of trusting somebody
versus trusting themselves
to some degree.
And and that is
why I, I just,
I just really like
the hand-holding
of collaborative custody.
And I always have
I've just been such
a huge fan
of Unchained approach
from the very
beginning, back when I was,
like an advisor,
an early investor there,
I just I always loved that.
And I think that's kind
of the that's the dominant,
you know, theoretically,
that's that's
the dominant place to be
is is for most people,
it can be easy enough
that the people that would
otherwise just choose
for third party custody,
you can get them into
collaborative
where you may never
get those boomers
and I don't sorry,
mom and Dad,
you may never
get those people
that don't want to take
full self-custody to do it.
Now, this
entire thread is great.
The the the whole
collaborative custody thing.
We've
we've talked about this
a bunch.
We're we're,
we're good friends with,
the guys at the bitcoin
advisor Peter Dollars.
And they basically offer
like an extra layer
on, on top of this,
they work with Unchained
as well.
But but they, they do
the hand-holding
to get people on,
on there basically. And,
offer service.
By the way,
I like those guys.
There's another example.
Every single person
that signs up at say,
like you're automatically
into a multi-sig.
Yeah. Like, I know.
Your phone is a key.
And then
and I think they work with,
with the BTC
advisor guys too.
And like, it's really easy
to kind of tee up
somebody from Peter's squad
as, like a key
agent or something
like that.
We talk to those guys too.
I love them and like,
I think we'll
probably figure out
how to integrate with that
at some point.
It's it's great.
And I mean,
the only reason I mentioned
it is, is just that they,
like, basically they,
they make it
one step
even easier,
the kind of
hand-holding of people
who want that kind of thing.
And I mean, yeah,
there's sort of this
sort of mix.
It's it's it's
something that does actually
still give you control,
but, but you have help.
You have help something,
something like that.
But you touched
on something,
really interesting.
And this is the
the Coinbase custody,
the Coinbase vault.
And I mean,
this is, as I understand it,
where the majority
of the ETFs,
in fact,
all by the couple are,
are with Coinbase basically.
And is
is that a big
centralization risk.
Do you see this as
as similar systemically
to well,
everything you talked about
with the
the micro strategies
and all this.
What do you
think about this?
It will diversify over time.
It was much easier
for them to all do
just Coinbase initially.
I think there are other
other reputable custodians
that are
getting pieces of these
and we'll,
we'll take
some of that share,
in the next year or two.
And then I also think that,
you know,
they will be going into
multi-sig setups as well,
if they're not already.
And, you know,
kind of
they're probably already
in Multi-sig.
I would guess
that MicroStrategy
probably is in a multi-sig,
with all of their
institutional relationships.
And I would
I would get that,
that they probably hold
the majority of the keys
in those setups to,
so, you know,
shades of gray.
It's not all
black and white.
I remain,
as I have since
since the launch of Swan.
There's only one entity
on the planet
that can really make things
ugly and dark
for Bitcoin and Bitcoiners.
For some period of time,
they'd still
lose in the end.
But it's only
the state Department
of the United States
that's the only
that's the only entity that
could coordinate something
internationally
to make things suck.
And I
don't think that, like,
it's not a risk anytime soon
because we can see
the world that we live in
and the way that
politics are working.
So something
dramatic would have to
change, like,
a big social change
in the US
that changes the government
and how
the government works.
For me to really assign
a large risk
to something like that.
And you know what?
If they
nationalized the coins
in 61 or 2, it.
Just be glad
you have self-custody coins,
you know,
and if they want to
take some of the ETF
coins, like,
you know,
that'll suck
for the ETF holders.
Yeah.
Trying to wrap
my head around that.
Like, would
it's one thing
that the institution itself
has an incentive to do that.
But how
how do we get to a point
where all the people
in the institution
have the incentive
to do that,
because they at that point
they will probably be
have some exposure
to Bitcoin themselves.
Right?
It's very unlikely
that they won't.
And which means
they don't have an incentive
to ever pull that off.
What are your thoughts.
Yeah.
That's that's that's why
we think of institutions
as being made up of people
and people
who come into contact
with Bitcoin.
You know,
even if they were feds once,
they often become crypto
GPUs within a few years
with big bag
holdings of Bitcoin.
Yeah.
Who was
it was a Greenspan
that turned from
an Austrian economist
to a central banker.
Was one of the.
Well, who was it?
I don't remember who it was,
but like
but the Bitcoin is doing
the opposite. It's my point.
Like it's
turning people
from central banking to,
to proper,
proper
understanding of
how human beings work.
Yeah.
So do you think.
This next
four years
gets us over
the hump politically?
Realistically, like Trump
being in office
for four years
and likely
the executive
side of the administration
isn't at least opposing
Bitcoin.
So does that
does that actually give us
enough time, enough momentum
to really not have to
worry about this?
Because it
after a certain point,
really, is any of this
going to matter?
What do you do?
You got 23 months.
What's going to get done?
We'll get done in the
next 23 months.
And it's a
matter of priorities.
Like, you know, how
how much is attention
going to be on on Bitcoin
and how much is it
going to be on,
you know, Department
of Government
efficiency and, you know,
rehashing old, old
wounds from various
political enemies,
things like that.
Just depends on
where the energy goes.
One thing
that I think any,
any impartial
observer can see about Trump
is he really likes
numbers go up
and he likes being,
credited for a number
going up.
And, you know, the
the I wouldn't
say the whispers, the shouts
out of the administration,
the incoming administration
are that
he really wants
to see Bitcoin 150 K
as soon as possible.
Yeah I saw.
Trump.
Yeah I saw Eric
Trump in Bitcoin
may not in Abu Dhabi.
You're talking about
like he's
halfway there Maxie.
Like he's
still a crypto guy.
But listen.
Yeah he he seems.
Like he gets it. Yeah.
He wasn't
speaking from notes.
It was pretty town. Like he.
You gets what Bitcoin is
and talking about it
I mean it was like that.
That was actually
pretty impressive.
Somebody sent it to me
I was at the airport
last night
I just watched
I don't know
how long it was,
but I watched
the three minute clip of it
and I was like,
that was actually
a lot better than like,
RFK two's
first Bitcoin speech.
Yeah, because
I mean, first of all,
it wasn't written for him
by somebody else,
which is nice.
Or maybe it was,
but he delivered it
at least.
So it was pretty frickin
good.
Yeah.
It's it's
a fascinating time. Where.
And but the reason I say
23 months is because,
there will be a new Congress
in 26 most presidents
that are lame duck
presidents, essentially
because they can only serve
one term.
He's not running
for reelection.
So basically has
the first two years
to push through anything
that he really cares about.
And, you know,
nothing happens in December,
you know,
before the new Congress
comes in.
So it's
it's probably really
just through Election Day
in early
November of 26 is the time,
but something that's on
on the menu
that I really didn't
think would be on the menu
for another decade
is, getting rid of cap
gains tax in the US,
which is by far
the number one thing
that would change
Bitcoin dramatically.
It would be a huge
step change
for Bitcoin number go up.
It would bring about Bitcoin
as a medium of exchange
ten years
earlier than whatever
your forecasts are.
Mine keep getting
pushed out.
I think I used to talk about
maybe we'll see
wide media change
by like 2030 to then.
I think earlier this year
I was saying 2035.
Now I'm probably like 2038.
But it can start happening
this decade
if you get rid of cap
gains tax.
Yeah.
And that
that would be huge
2 to 2 years a Trump word
like you know, why are you
like huge.
No it will be.
Absolutely.
I just hope
that he doesn't
replace Texas with tariffs.
But but
this starts of removing
those two at some point
because like,
no, but but still it's, it's
everything points
to, to this being
having a real potential
of making some change here.
But especially
I think Trump's kids,
being so positive,
it's not only,
the guy that has spoken
in Abu Dhabi,
it's also Barron Trump.
It's an, it's name.
Barron.
The younger one,
And Danny's
making bank off
of crypto scams.
So, you know, like,
you have to at least
be nice to Bitcoin
if you're going to scam
in crypto.
Yeah.
It's so you know so so yeah
fingers crossed.
We know Jared.
Ivanka as has been
Jared knows a shitload
about Bitcoin
and owns a ton.
Yeah.
And this this is the
this is the fun part.
Like there
there is a Bitcoin
everywhere.
Like in every
social construct
around the world.
No matter if it's
head of the
if it's like,
months of party or,
corporation or,
a football team,
there's always one guy
that can't
shut up about Bitcoin.
And that guy keeps
being right over
and over again.
The sooner or later
everyone's going to
listen to him.
Guys, guys,
what is our identity
going forward if we've won
and we can't
just be like this
misanthrope in the corner,
like,
you know,
like, like,
do we just get to be normal
humans again?
It's.
Well, I'm an honorary.
It's that I'm an honorary
Seattleites, remember?
I wear that as a badge.
Yeah. So?
So I still have an identity
after after
hyperbolic conversation.
I like it, I like it.
Yeah.
It's,
it is much more pleasant
to just
be around
other people,
in person
coming out of
Covid, bitcoins winning.
Everybody's interested.
Like, it's it is kind of,
you know, I
because I
had a
social professional circle,
for so long
in, like, West
Coast tech and, you know,
with venture capital
and startup founders
and putting on events
and going to events
and raising money and,
you know,
investing in companies
and all this stuff,
and it's like
you get into Bitcoin
and it's a
completely different
set of people
with no overlap
for all that time.
And now it's like
everybody's back
and you can hang out
with them
for you can get the benefits
of reconnecting
with your friends
and a lot more people
that you like to see,
but you didn't have the time
to keep up with.
Like I kept my
closest friends,
but now, like
just rolling
through New York,
like everybody
will come out.
If you say you're
getting together,
you know,
some Wall Street people
and some Bitcoin
people and like,
everybody will come out
and they're coming in from,
you know, wherever they live
with their families
now in new Jersey
or Brooklyn
or downtown or whatever.
And they'll
they'll meet up
for an evening.
And, and it's,
it's just different.
And, and you're not
like bending their ear
to talk about bitcoin.
They're there to
talk about bitcoin.
Fantastic.
So so speaking of like
what are you looking forward
to the most like this
this upcoming year here.
Like whoa.
I mean, from a,
from a business standpoint,
just executing
because we were so fresh
and so new,
you know, the
like the retail peak for,
for retail
buying was like May
the price peak
was April of 21
and the retail
interest peak was May.
And then there was like
a leverage scam
echo bubble
later in the year
basically to pump Solana.
You know, so
we basically missed it
because we were just just
DCA savings plans for 2020.
We started taking wires
in like November
or December of 2020.
We announced
the start of Swan Private
in January of 21 to handle
like big purchases
and everything,
but it was basically just me
and yon.
And, you know,
there were no there
were no salespeople.
Actually, Breedlove
at one point
signed up to be
the head of Swan Private
and then decided,
I think he got a huge
pay in advance deal,
from Nydig
to sponsor his podcast.
So he decided to do that
instead of, instead of work.
Yeah, I remember
reading everything.
So then, you know, I think,
Steven Lipsky,
who runs Swan
Private, his first
full time day
at the company was May 1st,
after the price peak
and the first
month of the retail
interest peak.
And so we weren't
actually in market,
the last bull market,
which is crazy.
So it's been it's
been interesting just,
you know, making sure
all your systems are
rock solid
and that everything works.
And, you know,
you've got a team
that's there
and ready
to rock and execute,
and you don't have
the distraction
at the executive
level of the,
the mining business
and associated
relationships.
So you can focus 100% on,
you know,
the bitcoin investors
that you serve.
And so we are like
crushing it
and really geared
up for a lot more growth
and excited
to bring more products
to market.
So from a business side
that's that's all there
I think on
the personal side,
it's like,
you know,
how do you just
keep your feet
on the ground?
Helps to be married
to a Turk.
That's generally going to
do the trick.
And having young kids
definitely helps as well,
because they
don't give a shit
what's going on at work.
But, you know,
it's it's almost just,
deliberately creating
a little bit of extra
transition time
between your, your work day
and, and, so I find myself,
you know, I'll be,
like, euphoric
on the day that,
you know,
Bitcoin goes
through 100 K or something.
And I'm like, okay,
I recognize that.
I'm probably
going to act like an ass
around my family right now.
So I'm going to go
take a walk for 20 minutes
and let myself
just kind of calm down
and be a little more
even keel.
It's like,
you know, just try to be
a grownup about this shit.
Now through that.
But yeah,
it sounds like you did the
the proper thing
a bitcoiners should do,
which is build
during a bear market.
It's like we're a
Bitcoin is build
a bear technology.
Like we should get
build a bear
to accept Bitcoin.
One of these days.
Oh, fantastic.
I think
we're coming up on the
on the hour here.
So let's
thank you, Corey,
for coming back to the show.
And like,
is there anywhere
you would like
to send our listeners
an internal
or external like.
Well, I mean, honestly,
probably Twitter
is the best place,
so it's just my full name.
Cory Klippsten on Twitter.
Sorry on X.
So X.com
slash Cory Klippsten.
Generally,
if I have anything
worth saying,
I'll put the whole thing
or a version of it
on, on X and,
and my DMs are open
still, I believe,
so you can always
hit me up there too,
if you want to chat. Is is,
bitcoin debunking Corey
coming back anytime soon
or is there
no use for him anymore.
Like look at say look.
So first off
okay so this will be
the last one minute topic
because I want to hammer
this on.
I reject the role of like
shit coin pi
because I don't care
about average crypto scams.
I only ever cared
about the ones
where they were talking shit
about Bitcoin
or doing something
that I like in or around
bitcoin that I thought
was bad for Bitcoin.
So it was Daquan
with the bullshit bitcoin
Treasury muszynski
trying to get everybody's
bitcoin
for his Ponzi scheme.
And SBF who was talking shit
about bitcoin
all the time
and just, you know,
just had too much influence
that was contrary
to Bitcoin.
So you know those were
the ones that I went after.
I'm pretty sure you
can't meet any of them
for a coffee at this point.
So but you won't spend
any time
bashing this coin again.
I just think it's
I just think
it's the last battle
and it just doesn't matter.
Like Bitcoin
is just so separate
from crypto at this point.
And Bitcoin is investing
and saving
and crypto is gambling
and like
just let them play
with their crypto games
or whatever.
And you know,
bet on some sports
and bet on some meme coins.
And you know, it's sad
for the people
that really can't
afford to be doing that.
But, you know,
I got bigger
fish to fry and,
you know, it's,
it's time to just move on
and and
just do much, much more
on the,
on the positive
side of things, just
promoting Bitcoin.
Great.
Great to hear.
So once again
thanks for coming back.
And you're always welcome us
you know.
So yeah
I hope to see you
in real life again
soon as well.
Yeah. Me too. Me too.
Great to see you guys.
Thanks for the time.
Thanks a lot Corey.
This has been the Bitcoin
30 show.
Thank you for listening.