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Welcome back to the conclusion of our Daylight Doubleheader.

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Today we are talking about The Price of Tomorrow by Jeff Booth.

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The price of tomorrow is high. How high?

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The most likely scenario is that in a few years we simply won't recognize our economy.

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The highly specific careers, gatekept by credentials and certificates and the source of pride and accomplishment,

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they'll disappear in the blink of an eye.

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And how could they not?

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Who could possibly justify their higher cost, lower performance, and slower completion times

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to the consumer, who is at least inconvenienced and at worst irreparably harmed by the human

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element within the system? How much cheaper and faster does my package arrive when the AI driving

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the truck doesn't need sleep, or to return home to a family, or to get paid beyond the cost of

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electricity to run the computer? To the patient being shuffled between specialists who don't talk,

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over the course of months only to finally discover

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their unknown malady is an advanced cancer.

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This person has lost sleep,

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they've suffered stress and travel inconvenience

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and being treated like a number

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and they've racked up costs that they'll never be able to pay back.

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How can we possibly justify not using a computer program

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that gives more accurate results in minutes for pennies

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and is able to catch the cancer pre-stage

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instead of at stage 4?

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At the same time technology has reached escape velocity, the currency is going the other way.

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Government currencies are like high school quarterbacks.

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They peak in their teens and then begin an accelerating descent into oblivion.

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To believe any government currency in existence today will be around in 100 years

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would be like watching the sun set every day for a decade

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and suddenly proclaiming that this day, this one right now,

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this is the one where the sun will never set again and will be an eternal sunlight

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it would be to ignore the lesson taught over 3,800 times by every government currency that's ever

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existed before for over a century humanity has been robbed of the benefits of technology due to

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one fatal flaw an economic system which requires an ever-increasing amount of debt to continue the

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promotion of a lie, that economic growth is good, desired, and natural. The natural state of

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technology is deflationary. We do more with less, we do it better, and to the benefit of humanity as

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a whole. Barely more than a hundred years ago, we fought war on horseback. Today, hives of AI drones

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seek out specific DNA signatures and limit targets anywhere on earth. My grandmother grew up cooking

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over corn cobs, and now we have nuclear power plants the size of a closet that can power entire

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cities. So how is it that no one can afford a home? How is it that one health diagnosis can

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derail a family's economic trajectory for generations? Why is everything but constant

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distraction getting further out of reach? Jeff Booth has the bona fides of one who battled

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through and succeeded in this world. And over half a decade later, his words may sound prophetic

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and his knowledge like a savant. But by reading this book, as he shares his wisdom, we can clearly

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understand where we are, how we got here, and where we're going. And on page 201 out of 208,

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he gives us a little hope for the future and so we start in on the price of tomorrow

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the price of tomorrow why deflation is the key to an abundant future so we're going to go we're

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going to march through this book section by section um put together all the arguments pull them apart

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and see we kind of have a whole theoretical framework a new way of looking at things and

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And we're looking at things centered around the idea of deflation.

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We usually hear talk about inflation.

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What is deflation?

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So the introduction gives us this framework, the basic structure.

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Tech is deflationary.

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We are in an age of tech.

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Therefore, we are in an age of deflation.

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And yet our economic system was built for a pre-tech era built on inflation.

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These are the two dueling concepts, deflation due to tech and then inflation, which we're going to see is due to money printing.

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So what are the consequences of this?

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So to really explore that, we're going to get our terms straight.

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What is deflation?

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What is this tech-based deflation that we're experiencing?

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That is when prices go down.

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So deflating prices are prices going down, typically because new technology allows us

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to make something for less cost.

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All things being equal in the deflationary paradigm, then even if your salary deflates

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from like 75K one year to 70K the next year,

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you're still going to be able to get more things.

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An example that Jeff Booth gives in the introduction

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is imagine like the incredibly expensive suitcase cell phones

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we used to have.

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Deflationary tech means we now have a multi-utility

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smartphone in our pocket that can do way more

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than the old cell phone could.

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And it doesn't cost thousands of dollars a month

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for the phone calls.

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So that's deflationary tech.

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And yet we don't see costs really dropping a lot of the time, or at least not as much as they should.

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So that's inflation.

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We have deflationary tech leading cell phones to transfer suitcases to things you put in your pocket.

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But meanwhile, we have inflation.

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What is the inflation?

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That is when costs keep rising because of government money creation.

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Governments set inflation targets.

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It's actually something they seek to do at about 2%.

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So they're actively resisting deflation that naturally occurs due to increasingly good technology.

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That technology or that deflation governments kind of presume has a negative effect on society.

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So they counter it with this contrived inflation.

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So the current paradigm, deflation through tech, inflation through money printing.

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But this model is not sustainable.

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And a lot of this book is about kind of talking about that dance between deflation and inflation and how that dance is not sustainable.

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The general out the kind of general framework for why it's not sustainable is money printing leads to massive debt and debt plus inflation is toxic.

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So debt plus deflate debt plus inflation is toxic.

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It's toxic because debt means you're going to have to pay the interest to service the loan.

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The inflation is going to increase the cost of that.

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Deflation means you simultaneously have less of an income to service that debt.

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And so this is a toxic kind of death spiral, inflation plus deflation.

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And we are at a point where most deflation is still yet to come.

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Various industries are kind of at the point of beginning, as we'll talk about throughout this, exponential returns in productivity and in diminishing costs.

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technology, specifically AI, as we'll see as a focal point, have the ability, the potential to

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replace large components, parts of our economy, if not the entirety of our current economy.

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This isn't necessarily bad. And Lucas mentioned there's hope at the end.

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Deflation can bring abundance. It will bring abundance. That's the subtitle,

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why deflation is the key to an abundant future. If we can get out of the way and yet kind of

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extricate ourselves from the deflation, inflation, toxic feedback loop that they're stuck in or will

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be stuck in at a certain point? And how then do we manage this process of getting there so that we

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don't follow the typical historic arc, which Jeff Booth relates through an anecdote is currency wars

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lead to trade wars, lead to real wars. So that's the general framework. Deflation, prices go down,

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inflation they're trying to artificially make prices go up they have a toxic interaction um

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and the outcome could be social chaos leading to currency wars trade wars real wars real wars

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that's the general framework for the whole book it's kind of there in the introduction you get

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your terms um anything to add to that just like general broad strokes accounting of like our

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vocabulary as we go forward? Not to the vocabulary. I would just say just the mechanics of how this

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how this works in action is simply that because governments print more money than they can back.

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So they're taking money out of the future. They're bringing it into the present.

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The only way that they can afford to pay that off is with new debt. So you take out,

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You issue government bonds at 8% and deflation occurs.

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You feel the deflation, even though you have created inflation by pumping this additional money into the economy.

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You feel the deflation.

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The economy actually wants to contract because it's trying to do more with less.

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But you have to artificially pump more into it so that you can continue to have people employed that should not be employed, continue to have businesses being operated that should not be operating,

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and be able to pull the lever of interest rates

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in order to pay the 8% debt off with 6%.

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And then you have to pay the 6% debt off with 4%.

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And then the 4 with 2 and the 2 with 0.

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And then you move into the realm of negatives.

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And when you move into the realm of negatives,

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then people finally start to pull their money out of the banks

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and they save. And when they do that, they stop spending. And when they stop spending,

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the music stops and there aren't enough chairs for everyone to sit in. And then the entire,

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what he calls the Ponzi economy collapses. And so this has been repeated over and over for every,

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you know, modern fiat currency that's failed. But yeah, I think, yeah, that's, he does a good job

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here at the beginning of spelling out that we have battling forces. We have an inflationary

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currency, which is artificially stimulating growth. Growth is actually very undesirable.

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We don't want growth. We want innovation. Those are two different things and they compete with

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each other. And that inflation is battling deflation. Yeah. I mean, it's really interesting

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because we constantly hear about inflation, the evils of inflation, the effects of inflation,

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But deflation is not as commonly employed in our lexicon as Bitcoiners, except for through Jeff Booth.

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Like this book's in 2019.

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So now a lot of people are savvy to the deflationary thesis.

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But this is definitely worth revisiting.

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I'm glad we're talking about this in depth.

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Because it sounds so prophetic now.

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It does.

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I mean, it's seven years later now.

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Oh, yeah.

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Book in 2019.

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And nothing he says that we're going to talk about has been disproved or put off course or anything like that.

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So which makes it all the more terrifying in some of its prescriptions, but how the economy then works.

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So that move out of the introduction into two sections, how the economy works, printing money, part one, how the economy works, part two, creative destruction, how the economy works, printing money.

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Lucas kind of prefigured this.

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Current growth occurs despite the deflationary tendency of technology because of debt-fueled spending.

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People finance debt with asset inflation.

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For example, people take out a loan against their house to buy all the fun stuff, the cool cars, the cool boats, etc., which then causes those assets to go even higher in price because they're pumping money into another great feedback loop.

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until the point where asset prices don't go up and the debt still has to be repaid.

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Then the government wants to keep the prices high,

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so they print the money to keep the party going, as you say,

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keep the asset prices increasingly going up, keep the music playing.

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So that sounds like a weird economy, but no harm, no foul, right?

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Keep on inflating, inflating for eternity.

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Lots of harm, because like we discussed at the bar last night,

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is that the individuals suffer the losses, but the institutions do not.

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So we socialize the losses, and the institutions gain the benefit of the bailouts.

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Yeah.

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So there's lots.

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I suppose there's the losses that we haven't got to there.

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We're still at the part where the music is playing.

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As long as the music is playing, there's no losses.

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So no harm, no foul, right?

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Just keep the music playing for eternity.

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I mean, the music has been playing for 100 years,

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and during that 100 years, the same house went from costing $4,000 to $400,000.

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So the loss is always being felt by the consumer.

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Yeah. No, and Booth notes, inflation hurts those without access to that debt.

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And that's what you were talking about when we were discussing this last night.

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Those who can't invest in assets and thereby benefit from these rising asset prices, they're just kind of like,

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if the music playing and everybody else is playing musical chairs, they're just kind of sitting in the corner saying,

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I wish I was in this dance. I wish I was part of this whole parade, this whole party.

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They're stuck with reduced buying power due to asset appreciation, but without any appreciated assets to benefit from this whole, yeah, signal acronym.

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Another pushback on no harm, no foul is not only are more and more people losing the ability to participate because it keeps moving further and further out of their reach because the asset prices accelerate faster than the wages do.

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But even for those people that own the assets, they are constantly under attack from the taxation on the unrealized gain of the increase in the value of that asset.

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So you buy the house for $100,000, you pay 2% tax on it in unrealized gains, which there's nothing else that we pay unrealized gains on.

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In fact, like that was like the huge blow up that occurred when Kamala Harris and the Biden administration attempted to push that through a year ago was that they wanted to put an unrealized tax on on cryptocurrency gains.

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But.

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Not only do the people who can't access the asset suffer, but the people who own the asset suffer because they are continually being taxed on the asset that increases in price.

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Yeah.

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Because the thing we are measuring it with, the dollar, is getting smaller.

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Yeah.

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And so you buy the house for $100,000.

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The first year, your tax is $2,000 because it's 2%.

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Ten years later, that house is worth $800,000.

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Now you're paying $16,000 a year in tax, more than what you probably originally paid for your entire mortgage.

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Yeah.

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And so you're rebuying that house multiple times over the course of your ownership.

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No, definitely.

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As it gets worse.

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When I said no harm, no foul, it was a rhetorical point to set me up to say the harms, but then it very much triggers you when I say no harm.

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You see red, which is in fact the only thing you can't see at this point because you have the cyberpunk goggle.

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the Blade Runner got what's going on

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to make sure that we're not, in fact, talking to a sideboard here.

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Dynamite drop in. I like that.

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And we also, so, no harm, no foul,

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except for all of the harms.

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All the harm and all the fouls.

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And all the fouls that Lucas pointed out.

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Also, the biggest harm and the biggest foul here,

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the 2008 financial crisis,

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it does come to a head cyclically,

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even as we inflate to keep the game going as much as possible.

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All of a sudden, there'll be a record scratch

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and there'll be a moment.

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And what happens in those moments?

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The government steps in and bails out exactly those people who designed the whole game to have a weird number of chairs.

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They come in to bail out the people that create these toxic assets that lead to this whole dynamic.

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Boo states that this changed capitalism in 2008.

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I mean, it's probably changed before then, but it becomes very obvious at that point.

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We no longer can say with a straight face that this is a fair market system.

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This is capitalism, pure and simple.

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Winners and losers are chosen by the market.

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No, sir.

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The government steps in, buys the toxic assets from those that recklessly acquired them and made them toxic.

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So prices rose for everybody, rise for everybody, because the government's putting a bunch of money into the market to buy these toxic assets off of the hot potato people who have them in their hands.

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Prices rise for everybody, but the people who create the whole situation get money to help them deal with it.

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This new system is not capitalism, but crony capitalism where the winners do not win by ingenuity or risk or passion or entrepreneurial spirit, but by being close to those in power.

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That's part one, how the economy works, printing money. Part two, how the economy works, creative destruction.

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You want to say something on that?

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00:17:44,020 --> 00:17:47,640
I do just want to say that I love the name that they gave the bailout program.

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What was that? Toxic?

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Tarp.

228
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Tarp, toxic asset.

229
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We're just going to throw a tarp over this.

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Oh, nice.

231
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We're just going to cover this up.

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We call this the hiding things under the rug act.

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Yeah.

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We're just going to sweep this out of the way.

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Yeah.

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And nobody's going to be the wiser, even though we spelled it out.

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That's the thing about, you know, one of the things about the way that the government does

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is they do it in the open.

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Yeah.

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You know, we're going to come out and we're going to tell you that our target is going

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to be 2% inflation.

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We are literally going to steal 2% of your wealth this year.

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in reality where it's actually going to be about 13. That's what it's averaged since 1951. But we're

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going to aim for only stealing 2%. We're just not going to tell you that it's 2%.

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And this is where this is the, he hits me because he loves me, abusive relationship that they end

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up having, which is that, oh, the inflation is going to be 2%, which is good for you, Mr. Homeowner,

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because your house is going to go up in value 2%.

248
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But in reality, what does that end up being to you in your checkbook?

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It ends up being higher replacement costs.

250
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When something goes wrong, you pay more taxes on it.

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You pay more insurance on it.

252
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Everything about it is more expensive to you.

253
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But, oh, and by the way, you can also tighten the noose around your neck

254
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by sticking yourself out even further over the edge,

255
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taking leverage on it if you choose to access more of that equity

256
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by taking a loan out to buy the second house, to buy the truck, to buy the boat.

257
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So, yeah, it's that.

258
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It really is.

259
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It is a it's such it's such a honest, open.

260
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We are abusing you and we're doing it out of love type of things that that is just not even, you know, man,

261
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it's just modern monetary theory is good because it's modern.

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And, you know, that's what they subscribe to.

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It's a fake.

264
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So creative destruction, creative destruction.

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how the economy works. This is an idea of Joseph Schumpeter. The idea is that innovation by

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entrepreneurs sustains economic growth. We're kind of all on board with that. Even as, and this is the

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kind of interesting part, paradoxical even, innovation by entrepreneurs sustains economic

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growth, even as it destroys the value of established companies, a sort of constant churn upward in which

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the value that's destroyed was created from previous created destruction.

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So that's the way that the economy works through this act of new companies arise,

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eat the old companies, creatively destroy them.

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They then become the incumbent and are later creatively destroyed by new rising companies.

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It's the process of creating monopolies and then getting disrupted by new rising companies.

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And it's always the change in what is the infrastructure needed in order to create the monopoly. When you're a railroad company, the infrastructure is the rail lines. But then when airlines come into play, then the infrastructure is airports, not rail lines.

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And so everything that you've invested in rail lines is now a sunk cost that keeps you going in that direction until it's too late to turn.

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When you're Walmart, everything in the infrastructure of the stores is what got you there.

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But then that becomes the thing that holds you back from being successful when the infrastructure goes digital and Amazon is able to list 500 million products instead of 130,000.

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All those stores then become a liability.

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So that, yeah, that's he called the sigmoid, the S curve. You build the monopoly by building the best infrastructure. But what's fascinating is that the monopoly becomes the thing or the infrastructure that got you the monopoly becomes the sunk cost that keeps you from being able to be on the forefront of the new technological evolution that will change the infrastructure.

280
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So I think the Sigmoin curve is mentioned in the context of the exponential growth, how one leg of exponential growth peters off.

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But then there's a new I guess you could it could also tie into creative destruction.

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Once the exponential growth from one company or industry peters out, there's another one ready to take the baton and creatively disrupt it and destroy it.

283
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So I can see the Sigmoin function working in that.

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Because what always happens is that you come in as the upstart, you develop the infrastructure, you're young, you're serving everybody, they're being served, it's wonderful, you're making profit.

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And then once you do develop that monopoly and you're able to push other people around and you start taking a little more profit than other people would like and you bully others, then somebody realizes, oh, I don't have to fight you, I can go around you.

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And so they start creating whatever it is, the new technology that's going to replace you. And it's always more expensive and less convenient at the start, which is that bottom part of the S where it's not gaining in cost or benefit. But then when it hits that upward part of the S and they start to take again.

287
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I was trying to look for the sigmoid curve.

288
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I mean, you can Google it to take a look at what it looks like.

289
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It's an interesting chart.

290
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Probably has a lot of different things it could explain because it's probably a recurring pattern.

291
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It looks a lot like the price chart of Bitcoin.

292
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It looks a lot like the price chart of Amazon or Facebook.

293
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It looks a lot like the adoption rate of the internet or cell phones.

294
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Does it?

295
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It looks a lot like the adoption rate of cars.

296
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I don't know about that.

297
00:23:23,140 --> 00:23:23,400
Yeah.

298
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Does it?

299
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Yeah.

300
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It starts small.

301
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it goes up and then it reaches saturation oh here it is um i don't know if that's going to be

302
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visible if you normalize it by putting it on a logarithmic scale they all look almost completely

303
00:23:41,020 --> 00:23:49,760
identical okay so not on a linear scale but if it's on a logarithmic scale so yeah okay yeah yeah

304
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percentage percentage wise fair enough so lucas mentioned the way to create infrastructure often

305
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works is new forms of infrastructure. The newest types of monopolies that we've arrived at that

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creatively disrupted and destroyed the last are platform monopolies. These are networks and

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platforms. As networks, they grow in strength with each new user through network effects.

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As platforms, they function not by offering a product, but by aggregating supply of all the

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other producers in the market or service and then providing that. For example, Amazon and Alibaba

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aggregate the supply of products and suppliers.

311
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You go on Amazon and there's all these different suppliers

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trying to sell you a product.

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Amazon is not supplying the thing.

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They're just like, hey, guys, come and offer to our website.

315
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Airbnb is aggregating the rental supply and offering that, right?

316
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Facebook, the supply is you.

317
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LinkedIn, the supply is the business you.

318
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So platforms as monopolies are different than the monopolies in the past.

319
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In the past, monopolies are broken up

320
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because they lead to higher prices or worse products, right?

321
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You can get like this monopoly over the market

322
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and then you kind of deteriorate in your capacity

323
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or willingness to offer good products

324
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because the consumers have no choice, right?

325
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But with platform monopolies,

326
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the result is actually better products

327
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because all these suppliers are still competing

328
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amongst each other to offer their product, right?

329
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The platform isn't the one even creating the product.

330
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You still have a bunch of competition occurring

331
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among the suppliers.

332
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So prices are going lower.

333
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a different form of monopoly is occurring.

334
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They also are growing in strength

335
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from data being added to them.

336
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And as I mentioned,

337
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from new users on the network previously,

338
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it wasn't like that

339
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where you had these strong network effects.

340
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And previously, data wasn't such a resource.

341
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But as we're going to talk about later,

342
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the ability to aggregate data

343
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is what's really going to kind of determine

344
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who the winner is of the AI,

345
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artificial intelligence.

346
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If you say AI, you have to say artificial intelligence.

347
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I think we all know what that is.

348
00:25:54,580 --> 00:26:01,380
In any case, if one company gets AI and has a bunch of data that gets AI,

349
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but if one company is working to develop AI in its super intelligent form,

350
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AGI, artificial general intelligence, and has a data stream that's vast,

351
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they have a huge advantage over other companies that are also working on AI.

352
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:42,900
And that's one of the things that these platform network monopolies have a corner on is a specific data stream. So that's creative destruction. I guess that's the chapter on creative destruction, how our economy works. We first talked about inflation, the pricing aspect, and now creative destruction, the way that we have the arising of a new form of platform network monopoly.

353
00:26:42,900 --> 00:26:49,480
Do you have anything to add to that or comment upon it, a maraschino cherry of a thing to the layer?

354
00:26:51,620 --> 00:26:59,960
So these platform network monopolies are a, we do need to recognize they are a fundamental shift.

355
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Because when there was a railroad monopoly or when there was a airline monopoly or when there was a newspaper monopoly, then the railroad company didn't necessarily care about your gender or what time you went to bed or what your sports interests were.

356
00:27:29,060 --> 00:27:34,360
or what books you like to read or what kind of shoes you like to wear.

357
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,720
None of that affected their product.

358
00:27:37,620 --> 00:27:44,420
But all of this information that I just mentioned is immensely valuable to these platforms

359
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because the way that they, the business model that has proliferated

360
00:27:49,920 --> 00:28:04,220
is that the customer is the product and that the data that they supply is sold to advertisers

361
00:28:04,220 --> 00:28:10,800
that is used to target them, target themselves for future buying.

362
00:28:11,540 --> 00:28:19,540
And so that is, A, I mean, we all need to understand that this is a fundamental shift

363
00:28:19,540 --> 00:28:20,980
in the way that these things work.

364
00:28:22,360 --> 00:28:28,380
And that this is why de-platforming is such a,

365
00:28:29,780 --> 00:28:32,960
it has such wide-reaching implications

366
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:37,000
and should be taken very seriously.

367
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Because if you're kicked off of one of these platforms,

368
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the biggest of these platforms,

369
00:28:43,740 --> 00:28:48,660
or let's say the most consequential of these platforms

370
00:28:48,660 --> 00:29:07,553
being like being kicked off of the Chinese social credit score program where your social credit score becomes so low that you not allowed to participate in the economy anymore And then you just become this effectively non

371
00:29:08,353 --> 00:29:10,393
You can't buy food.

372
00:29:10,533 --> 00:29:11,913
You can't get on an airplane.

373
00:29:12,313 --> 00:29:16,333
You can't get toilet paper out of a bathroom stall at a McDonald's.

374
00:29:17,073 --> 00:29:26,993
And so it truly is a way to just wipe people off the face of the earth or just wipe them from any sort of like normal.

375
00:29:27,113 --> 00:29:39,133
existence. And he brings up the point that the, you know, like a country like China has a huge

376
00:29:39,133 --> 00:29:48,673
advantage in developing these systems because they are authoritarian. You don't have systems being

377
00:29:48,673 --> 00:29:55,753
these like these AI systems that are being that are they they benefit so greatly from having more

378
00:29:55,753 --> 00:30:05,333
data. And so if you have 1.1 billion people and you are monitoring as best you can, literally

379
00:30:05,333 --> 00:30:12,093
every transaction, every message, every video they watch, everything that they do, then that's

380
00:30:12,693 --> 00:30:21,333
a treasure trove of data that, you know, it's not like anybody in China has the ability to

381
00:30:21,333 --> 00:30:29,533
not signed the end user license agreement and, you know, choose to opt out like you can with,

382
00:30:30,213 --> 00:30:33,653
hey, I'm just not going to be part of Facebook because I don't want to give them my data.

383
00:30:33,653 --> 00:30:37,473
Yeah. You know, they don't they don't have that option. So there's

384
00:30:37,473 --> 00:30:45,653
1.1 billion people, full stack of everything from birth to death that contributes to building these

385
00:30:45,653 --> 00:30:49,173
AI models. And because they are authoritarian, you don't have to go through any sort of,

386
00:30:49,173 --> 00:30:54,433
So, you know, unicameral, bicameral, any sort of legislature, you don't really have to go through anything.

387
00:30:55,093 --> 00:30:59,573
They can move really fast and they can make decisions.

388
00:30:59,573 --> 00:31:01,913
So through unicameral, that's just one body, right?

389
00:31:02,653 --> 00:31:05,173
Yeah, but still, there's people, right?

390
00:31:05,273 --> 00:31:06,253
I mean, that's Nebraska.

391
00:31:06,573 --> 00:31:07,013
Look at that.

392
00:31:07,073 --> 00:31:08,153
That's not a great run state.

393
00:31:08,313 --> 00:31:09,013
Is that your phone or mine?

394
00:31:09,013 --> 00:31:09,293
It is.

395
00:31:09,333 --> 00:31:09,933
No, it's my phone.

396
00:31:10,073 --> 00:31:10,293
Okay.

397
00:31:10,433 --> 00:31:17,673
I have a potential boomer relation to technology where I don't know how to stop a timer I set, so I have to listen to all of the rings of it.

398
00:31:17,893 --> 00:31:18,193
Okay.

399
00:31:18,413 --> 00:31:18,713
Yeah.

400
00:31:18,713 --> 00:31:24,413
So tech is deflationary unless you're totally ignorant as to how it runs.

401
00:31:25,573 --> 00:31:27,593
I bet it's inflationary in your life.

402
00:31:27,813 --> 00:31:30,473
It's just inconvenient for everyone around.

403
00:31:30,553 --> 00:31:30,993
Oh, yeah.

404
00:31:31,353 --> 00:31:35,193
If I had a suitcase phone, that would be much more efficient for me.

405
00:31:35,593 --> 00:31:37,533
We had those when they first came out.

406
00:31:37,593 --> 00:31:38,113
I remember.

407
00:31:38,573 --> 00:31:42,153
And they were expensive, and the cell phone bills were really expensive.

408
00:31:42,373 --> 00:31:44,513
It was like $300 a month just to have the regular.

409
00:31:44,513 --> 00:31:49,593
It's about being $1,200 for his first suitcase phone or whatever.

410
00:31:49,873 --> 00:31:50,793
Yeah, suitcase, cell phone.

411
00:31:50,793 --> 00:32:02,653
So the next couple of chapters are going to talk about really like human cognitive hardware limitations as we try to think about a lot of these things.

412
00:32:03,153 --> 00:32:07,953
So Booth has some interesting new ideas about deflation and its effects.

413
00:32:08,593 --> 00:32:13,273
Why don't we, why isn't this stuff just like common knowledge amongst all of us?

414
00:32:13,273 --> 00:32:16,233
because the human mind, as we're going to see,

415
00:32:16,333 --> 00:32:18,533
doesn't think about exponential growth

416
00:32:18,533 --> 00:32:21,813
and we're not evolutionarily designed to do that.

417
00:32:21,893 --> 00:32:23,713
We also have some other hardware limitations

418
00:32:23,713 --> 00:32:25,473
in our mental plumbing, so to speak.

419
00:32:25,773 --> 00:32:28,613
So we do most things unconsciously.

420
00:32:29,213 --> 00:32:31,333
Deep learning, like learning new things,

421
00:32:31,473 --> 00:32:33,133
jumping out of the patterns we already know,

422
00:32:33,193 --> 00:32:34,573
that's very mentally taxing.

423
00:32:35,253 --> 00:32:37,853
Once we learn something, we don't tend to question it.

424
00:32:37,853 --> 00:32:39,353
It becomes a background assumption,

425
00:32:39,613 --> 00:32:41,473
part of our default mental furniture.

426
00:32:42,313 --> 00:32:45,473
In fact, we use it to filter new information coming in.

427
00:32:45,513 --> 00:32:48,633
It becomes a new bias that privileges new information.

428
00:32:48,933 --> 00:32:50,973
Is it consistent with what we already know?

429
00:32:51,513 --> 00:32:55,373
He talks about, Booth does, various cognitive biases, specific ones.

430
00:32:55,793 --> 00:32:57,613
The anchoring effect, for example, is one.

431
00:32:57,693 --> 00:33:01,833
We put too much weight on initial information we receive when making decisions.

432
00:33:02,353 --> 00:33:10,453
For example, if Bart hears a negotiation tactic, if you want $1,000, do you ask for $5,000 or do you ask for $500?

433
00:33:11,013 --> 00:33:14,433
You ask for the $5,000 because then people anchor on that new number,

434
00:33:14,533 --> 00:33:18,393
and when you revise it downward, they're much happier than revising it upward.

435
00:33:18,993 --> 00:33:21,473
Sunk cost bias, another cognitive bias we have.

436
00:33:21,473 --> 00:33:26,733
We continue to invest time and emotion in stuff we've already invested time and emotion in,

437
00:33:27,233 --> 00:33:31,393
believing that the sunk cost, that's something that holds us back.

438
00:33:31,633 --> 00:33:32,613
That actually does it.

439
00:33:32,633 --> 00:33:36,033
Just because you've invested a certain amount of effort into it in and of itself

440
00:33:36,033 --> 00:33:38,393
doesn't justify investing more.

441
00:33:38,473 --> 00:33:40,133
These are cognitive biases we have.

442
00:33:40,453 --> 00:33:44,973
Just as a result of our evolution, our mental apparatus is flawed in some ways.

443
00:33:45,473 --> 00:33:49,513
Writing oneself of biases is what drives creative destruction.

444
00:33:49,513 --> 00:34:00,593
Those few and wise who are able to jump out of the lenses that kind of define our vision, think creatively, are able to disrupt kind of the current monopolies.

445
00:34:00,913 --> 00:34:07,353
Having biases and not questioning them is what leads to being creatively destroyed, destructed, disrupted.

446
00:34:07,353 --> 00:34:35,593
So one more that I think is really cool. We also have entire narratives we live by. And this is why Jeff is offering Mr. Booth another narrative here, deflation, the deflationary era that we're in, what deflation is. We already have other narratives that make it more kind of difficult to accommodate new ones. A narrative being kind of a giant story by which we find ourselves, which we define our actions, right?

447
00:34:35,593 --> 00:34:50,653
The hero's journey is a common one. Jeff talks about this in here, that there is this common pattern behind stories, that if you analyze enough stories, you begin to see recurring structures in the way that the stories develop their action.

448
00:34:52,253 --> 00:35:00,653
To quote Booth in this book, it involves a hero who goes on an adventure, faces an insurmountable obstacle, wins victory, and then comes home transformed.

449
00:35:00,653 --> 00:35:08,193
transformed. Or as he says, the departure, initiation, return, three phases to this story

450
00:35:08,193 --> 00:35:14,033
structure, to this narrative pattern, this monomyth that we find very comforting and very

451
00:35:14,033 --> 00:35:20,393
accommodating. When information comes at us in the form of a narrative, we absorb it a lot easier

452
00:35:20,393 --> 00:35:25,573
and we hold it and it's difficult to get outside of that narrative. And just because it's one of my

453
00:35:25,573 --> 00:35:31,493
favorite things um joseph campbell's book the hero's journey one of the the hero with a thousand

454
00:35:31,493 --> 00:35:36,053
faces rather one of the best summaries of it is by dan harman the creator of community and rick

455
00:35:36,053 --> 00:35:41,973
and morty um he has this framework so jeff summarized it as departure initiation return

456
00:35:41,973 --> 00:35:50,453
so what dan says dan harman you need go search find take return change he breaks it down into

457
00:35:50,453 --> 00:35:57,833
Eight words. You have a need. So you go search for something. You find it. You take it. You return and change.

458
00:35:58,013 --> 00:36:03,573
You have another need. You go out. You search for something to satisfy that need. You find the thing to satisfy the need.

459
00:36:03,633 --> 00:36:08,493
You take it. You return. You change as a person giving rise to another need.

460
00:36:08,613 --> 00:36:11,053
And so you go out, search, find, take, return, change.

461
00:36:11,173 --> 00:36:15,153
And everything, every one of his episodes has that framework.

462
00:36:15,153 --> 00:36:19,453
This is a very intimate framework. It's part of how we see the world.

463
00:36:19,453 --> 00:36:27,413
It's very motivational, too, if you see yourself as a hero in your own journey day to day, having a need, going out, finding something, taking it, returning and changing as a person.

464
00:36:27,613 --> 00:36:28,653
It's very motivational.

465
00:36:29,193 --> 00:36:39,433
But in any case, what these do in the context of the price of tomorrow, we don't often question our own stories or beliefs.

466
00:36:39,533 --> 00:36:45,693
Once we kind of have these comforting narratives in our head about the way the world functions, we're a hero in a certain type of story.

467
00:36:46,933 --> 00:36:48,393
It's hard for us to get out of those.

468
00:36:48,393 --> 00:36:56,053
So cognitive biases, adherence to certain narrative structures, these are things that make it hard for us to think in new ways.

469
00:36:56,593 --> 00:37:05,533
What Booth says, as a way, kind of a cognitive trip maybe or something to get yourself out of them, argue as if you are right, but listen as if you are wrong.

470
00:37:05,693 --> 00:37:09,833
That's kind of a framework that he gives, kind of an interesting thing to think about.

471
00:37:09,833 --> 00:37:17,953
you know forcefully um intellectually rationally make an argument and do it with a passion as if

472
00:37:17,953 --> 00:37:23,233
you're right but then listen to hear feedback what am i wrong i could be wrong hold open that

473
00:37:23,233 --> 00:37:29,673
possibility that what you said is not correct so this he jeff talks about this um these biases

474
00:37:29,673 --> 00:37:36,273
because he wants to explain why we often think badly about something like exponential thinking

475
00:37:36,273 --> 00:37:47,513
A lot of what the price of tomorrow is really about is some of the new technologies coming down the pipe are going to be exponential in their growth.

476
00:37:47,733 --> 00:38:01,173
An AI liftoff is really going to deflate, reduce costs, kind of reduce the number of jobs necessary in an exponential fashion.

477
00:38:01,453 --> 00:38:02,293
What is exponential?

478
00:38:02,533 --> 00:38:03,633
Why is it difficult to think about?

479
00:38:03,633 --> 00:38:07,213
He gives this great example, the folding a piece of paper example, right?

480
00:38:07,593 --> 00:38:11,053
So what happens if you fold a piece of paper 50 times?

481
00:38:11,093 --> 00:38:12,133
How thick would it be?

482
00:38:12,473 --> 00:38:14,133
You might think, well, I'll give it a shot.

483
00:38:14,573 --> 00:38:16,973
You're not going to get past like six or seven folds.

484
00:38:17,093 --> 00:38:20,433
If you folded it 50 times, how thick would it be?

485
00:38:20,753 --> 00:38:21,813
You might say a foot.

486
00:38:21,893 --> 00:38:23,733
You might say to the top of the room, the ceiling.

487
00:38:23,933 --> 00:38:28,332
It would go to the sun, which is still, even how many times I've read or thought about that,

488
00:38:28,373 --> 00:38:30,753
it just doesn't seem that's possible.

489
00:38:30,753 --> 00:38:33,673
What is it, 149 million kilometers, I think is something?

490
00:38:33,933 --> 00:38:34,473
Give or take.

491
00:38:34,553 --> 00:38:35,113
I think, right?

492
00:38:35,233 --> 00:38:35,453
Yeah.

493
00:38:35,533 --> 00:38:35,693
Yeah.

494
00:38:35,893 --> 00:38:36,253
Yeah.

495
00:38:38,033 --> 00:38:38,873
To the sun.

496
00:38:39,013 --> 00:38:41,613
Our brain can't even process that type of thinking is important, though.

497
00:38:41,793 --> 00:38:47,373
Like, we don't have the, it just doesn't, even I say that to you, you say it back to me, I'm like, oh, okay, that makes sense.

498
00:38:47,453 --> 00:38:48,293
It doesn't make sense.

499
00:38:48,453 --> 00:38:49,633
It, like, literally doesn't.

500
00:38:49,673 --> 00:38:50,953
We can't picture that in our mind.

501
00:38:51,513 --> 00:38:57,593
So exponential increases, though, these things that don't, like, register in our mind, they also apply to technology.

502
00:38:57,593 --> 00:39:03,013
So we think we think smart about technology, but we just have inherent cognitive limitations.

503
00:39:03,413 --> 00:39:09,413
So things like Moore's Law, the doubling of transistors on circuit boards every 18 months.

504
00:39:09,813 --> 00:39:11,593
We can say that. I can say that phrase.

505
00:39:11,793 --> 00:39:17,393
I can't comprehend what that actually means, catches out at for that in a sort of exponential fashion.

506
00:39:18,733 --> 00:39:21,573
And then this is where the sigmoid curve comes in, too.

507
00:39:21,573 --> 00:39:26,813
even as Moore's law goes into its exponential stage and then kind of peters out, there's some

508
00:39:26,813 --> 00:39:31,633
other thing that is entering its S-curve, kind of the part of its exponential growth.

509
00:39:32,373 --> 00:39:38,093
What does this mean for deflation? The booth talks about deflation in various industries,

510
00:39:38,253 --> 00:39:43,332
self-driving cars, virtual reality, energy. And the key point of each of these for the

511
00:39:43,332 --> 00:39:49,093
deflationary thesis is that all technology works by removing inefficiency and waste.

512
00:39:49,573 --> 00:39:51,413
I love this point so much.

513
00:39:51,713 --> 00:39:55,533
What do we call, what is inefficiency and waste actually?

514
00:39:55,893 --> 00:39:56,273
Jobs.

515
00:39:56,393 --> 00:39:57,852
Jobs that humans have.

516
00:39:57,852 --> 00:40:02,033
We are the waste reducers, the inefficiency patchers uppers.

517
00:40:02,253 --> 00:40:03,253
He's actually much more kind.

518
00:40:03,373 --> 00:40:05,352
What I heard the other day, I told you about this.

519
00:40:05,533 --> 00:40:08,973
What I heard, the description of what jobs are is adult daycare.

520
00:40:09,373 --> 00:40:11,133
So he's actually far more kind.

521
00:40:12,253 --> 00:40:17,473
In our inflationary economy, it creates unnecessary jobs that don't remedy inefficiencies and waste.

522
00:40:17,633 --> 00:40:18,832
That's why we have adult daycare.

523
00:40:18,832 --> 00:40:20,493
Yeah, that's an inflationary job, right?

524
00:40:20,653 --> 00:40:20,733
Yeah.

525
00:40:21,213 --> 00:40:31,093
And so, like, even the non-inflationary jobs, even the best job, all it does is reduce some inefficiency or some form of waste for us.

526
00:40:31,953 --> 00:40:32,433
Okay.

527
00:40:32,973 --> 00:40:33,473
You see what I'm saying?

528
00:40:33,593 --> 00:40:35,373
What are jobs that are non-inflationary?

529
00:40:37,553 --> 00:40:39,773
Jobs not created by money.

530
00:40:39,773 --> 00:40:40,033
No, no, no.

531
00:40:40,033 --> 00:40:42,393
Give me an example.

532
00:40:42,953 --> 00:40:44,533
So, okay, define our terms again.

533
00:40:44,533 --> 00:40:52,753
We have technological deflation, the tendency of technology over time to take over a bunch of human functions, provide them for us better than humans can.

534
00:40:53,133 --> 00:41:07,293
Meanwhile, we have inflation, the attempt of the government to counteract this deflationary force through monetary creation, which leads to the funding, the ability to like pay somebody to do something that's not necessary in adult daycare function.

535
00:41:07,933 --> 00:41:09,993
So you said what's a non what's it?

536
00:41:10,193 --> 00:41:11,173
What's an example?

537
00:41:11,173 --> 00:41:14,573
because an inflation, like, it's every white-collar job.

538
00:41:14,773 --> 00:41:17,813
No, so it's a job not created by monetary inflation.

539
00:41:17,953 --> 00:41:22,133
Right now, a doctor's job is not created by monetary inflation.

540
00:41:22,352 --> 00:41:24,193
The amount of doctors that we have.

541
00:41:24,193 --> 00:41:28,332
Maybe the amount of doctors, but the job is such, right, is what I'm saying.

542
00:41:28,593 --> 00:41:37,993
Yeah, but the job itself is merely a function of applying a certain amount of decision trees

543
00:41:37,993 --> 00:41:42,253
that have already been surpassed by code.

544
00:41:42,653 --> 00:41:44,033
No, you couldn't replace,

545
00:41:44,153 --> 00:41:45,633
you couldn't get rid of all the doctors right now,

546
00:41:45,693 --> 00:41:46,893
just have code do the thing.

547
00:41:48,513 --> 00:41:49,293
You couldn't.

548
00:41:49,973 --> 00:41:51,893
I mean, you'd still need somebody maybe

549
00:41:51,893 --> 00:41:53,273
to deliver the baby.

550
00:41:53,393 --> 00:41:55,133
Yeah, GPT, open my chest, get this,

551
00:41:55,273 --> 00:41:56,213
I have a heart problem.

552
00:41:56,332 --> 00:41:58,673
I mean, a lot of that stuff has been done by robots

553
00:41:58,673 --> 00:42:00,893
for a decade by now, you know.

554
00:42:01,213 --> 00:42:02,513
And laser.

555
00:42:03,413 --> 00:42:04,613
I see what you're saying.

556
00:42:04,753 --> 00:42:06,373
AI, and this is one of the theses,

557
00:42:06,373 --> 00:42:11,273
AI conceptually can get to the point where it's doing capable, doing all these things.

558
00:42:11,352 --> 00:42:13,173
I would just push back and it's not yet capable.

559
00:42:13,553 --> 00:42:15,213
It's not yet to the point where it can.

560
00:42:15,633 --> 00:42:27,253
Right. But that's like that's why people fail to understand the implications of exponential growth is because for the first 15 folds of the paper, it doesn't look like it's getting any thicker.

561
00:42:27,693 --> 00:42:29,193
And then all of a sudden.

562
00:42:29,933 --> 00:42:33,433
In a year, there's no need for a radiologist anymore.

563
00:42:33,832 --> 00:42:39,273
There's no need for a, let's see, there's no need for a radiologist.

564
00:42:40,613 --> 00:42:41,653
I'm going to be nice.

565
00:42:41,773 --> 00:42:45,153
I'm going to say that there's no need for some types of law.

566
00:42:46,313 --> 00:42:49,013
I'll leave that there are some that remain useful.

567
00:42:49,352 --> 00:42:51,673
So there's no need for radiologists within what time frame?

568
00:42:52,053 --> 00:42:52,653
Like now.

569
00:42:52,873 --> 00:42:53,933
Like they're already better.

570
00:42:54,073 --> 00:42:55,813
He even notes that in this book.

571
00:42:56,013 --> 00:42:56,253
Yeah.

572
00:42:56,352 --> 00:42:56,533
Right?

573
00:42:56,533 --> 00:42:59,693
that they're not only are they more accurate in,

574
00:43:00,773 --> 00:43:03,793
they have fewer false positives and fewer false negatives.

575
00:43:03,793 --> 00:43:05,793
Who's verifying that there's no false positives and negatives?

576
00:43:06,093 --> 00:43:07,613
You could even have a radiologist.

577
00:43:07,613 --> 00:43:09,753
So who's doing, yeah, but no, no, no, no, you can't say that

578
00:43:09,753 --> 00:43:11,593
because who's doing that for the humans?

579
00:43:11,893 --> 00:43:13,513
Because that shit applies to both.

580
00:43:13,913 --> 00:43:16,053
So you can't use that as a disqualifying fact.

581
00:43:16,053 --> 00:43:20,113
No, I think you can say that right now radiologists assisted by AI

582
00:43:20,113 --> 00:43:23,352
are better than either AI or radiologists without AI.

583
00:43:23,473 --> 00:43:24,633
There's a new job function there.

584
00:43:24,733 --> 00:43:25,352
That's probably true.

585
00:43:25,352 --> 00:43:30,813
But I mean, that means that you can eliminate probably 95% of them.

586
00:43:30,813 --> 00:43:34,293
You need less of them because you have one person doing more things.

587
00:43:34,332 --> 00:43:36,813
And then very, very shortly, you won't need them.

588
00:43:36,852 --> 00:43:40,253
And he gives that example when he talks about AlphaGo and AlphaGo Zero.

589
00:43:40,433 --> 00:43:40,713
Yeah.

590
00:43:40,893 --> 00:43:41,173
Right.

591
00:43:41,213 --> 00:43:54,253
Which is the AI, the deep mind AI that was created to play the game Go, which beat a human four games to one.

592
00:43:54,253 --> 00:43:54,733
Yeah.

593
00:43:55,352 --> 00:44:05,813
And then a year later, they had a new one that beat that AI 100 games to zero by coming up with its own things, creative things that humans had never done.

594
00:44:06,332 --> 00:44:06,573
Right.

595
00:44:06,633 --> 00:44:11,933
And so there's no reason to believe that that won't be applicable to all other fields.

596
00:44:11,933 --> 00:44:12,413
Yeah.

597
00:44:12,653 --> 00:44:13,493
They can actually, right.

598
00:44:13,533 --> 00:44:14,013
We'll get there.

599
00:44:14,373 --> 00:44:14,433
Yeah.

600
00:44:14,433 --> 00:44:25,393
And just so to proceed on, and we talked about like every job in some sense is a way to like remedy inefficiency waste.

601
00:44:25,573 --> 00:44:30,473
And so if something gets rid of inefficiency waste and processes, it gets rid of jobs like human functions.

602
00:44:30,473 --> 00:44:45,133
So one example of this that's really good, a combination of GPS, LIDAR, and mapping technology can survey land such that, I think it's like lumber harvesters can come in and do their lumber harvesting.

603
00:44:45,513 --> 00:44:54,373
Before you had this confluence of technologies, you had to send surveyors in on foot to do the surveying, come back with the results, convey them to people.

604
00:44:54,373 --> 00:45:11,073
So a huge inefficiency is obviously remedied. We don't have to send people in on the ground, but that inefficiency is literally the surveyor's job. Technological advances are beneficial, but that benefit of the removal of inefficiencies and waste fuels the destruction of various jobs.

605
00:45:11,073 --> 00:45:26,033
So this book, again, is about trying about how we have talking about how we've tried to stop this deflation through inflationary money creation leading to babysitter jobs, adult daycare jobs, unnecessary jobs.

606
00:45:26,213 --> 00:45:28,633
But now we see this as a huge problem.

607
00:45:29,113 --> 00:45:32,233
Technology advances at an exponential rate.

608
00:45:32,493 --> 00:45:37,293
So deflation is going to happen very quickly and very forcefully.

609
00:45:37,453 --> 00:45:39,673
And Booth gives the analogy of the sonic boom.

610
00:45:39,673 --> 00:45:51,093
there is a point when the plane evidently punches through like the sound barrier when it begins to go faster than the sound it produces where there's a and then the laws change the whole damn like process.

611
00:45:51,093 --> 00:45:55,352
And so that's going to be deflation at the exponential neck of the curve.

612
00:45:55,533 --> 00:46:01,893
And we're not going to be able to stop it with whatever like, you know, fire hose of money printing.

613
00:46:02,352 --> 00:46:09,633
So, yeah, do you have anything to add to just the thing that I thought most about when I was reading that was there the talk about.

614
00:46:09,673 --> 00:46:18,893
AI, like self-driving cars. Yeah, that was cool. And so cars currently are utilized about 5% of

615
00:46:18,893 --> 00:46:24,513
the time. So about five. So what's, you know, what's 5% of the time? Okay. So that's maybe an

616
00:46:24,513 --> 00:46:33,113
hour a day or a little more than an hour a day. Most of the time they sit still and they sit still

617
00:46:33,113 --> 00:46:39,293
and they aren't being used. And not only are they not being used, we also have to have the

618
00:46:39,293 --> 00:46:43,493
infrastructure to accommodate them wherever they go. You've got a parking spot at your house,

619
00:46:43,493 --> 00:46:48,773
but there also has to be a parking spot for you at the dentist's office. And that's only open

620
00:46:48,773 --> 00:46:54,073
eight hours a day. So for 16 hours a day, all of those spots are useless. And there's got to be a

621
00:46:54,073 --> 00:46:58,813
spot for you at the mall. And that's only open 12 hours a day. So, you know, et cetera, et cetera.

622
00:47:00,093 --> 00:47:08,173
So I think it's interesting because what we're going to see, like we often conflate

623
00:47:08,173 --> 00:47:18,393
two things that technology separates. We're actually going to see less demand for cars,

624
00:47:18,713 --> 00:47:26,573
more demand for transportation, right? Because transportation will be cheaper, safer, easier,

625
00:47:26,573 --> 00:47:35,832
and easier to be accessed by more people. But cars will not be needed by, like, you know,

626
00:47:35,832 --> 00:47:52,332
If we can have a car that operates instead of at 5% of its capacity, it can drive around at 90% of its capacity, then we can see a 18-fold increase in transportation with the same amount of cars.

627
00:47:53,453 --> 00:47:56,193
And we're not going to need all of the parking spots.

628
00:47:56,193 --> 00:48:02,733
He notes that like in L.A., 14% of all of the land mass of L.A. is just parking.

629
00:48:02,733 --> 00:48:15,373
Yeah. Which I honestly thought I was like, man, that's probably even low. But then take into account how much of it is is roads. You don't actually need as big or as many roads either.

630
00:48:15,373 --> 00:48:36,433
Um, you know, if, if every car is operating, um, with AI and it's linked to each other in a hive mind, instead of traveling, you know, at 200 feet apart on the internet, on the interstate, you can be right on each other's bumper and you can go 150 miles an hour.

631
00:48:36,433 --> 00:48:37,413
if you want to, right?

632
00:48:37,493 --> 00:48:38,953
So you can get places faster.

633
00:48:39,233 --> 00:48:40,493
It takes less time.

634
00:48:40,593 --> 00:48:41,573
It takes less space.

635
00:48:42,573 --> 00:48:46,213
And so it lowers the barrier to entry

636
00:48:46,213 --> 00:48:48,773
for being able to access transportation

637
00:48:48,773 --> 00:48:53,852
while decreasing the demand for the car,

638
00:48:53,953 --> 00:48:55,393
which provides transportation,

639
00:48:55,573 --> 00:48:57,013
which is kind of fascinating.

640
00:48:57,352 --> 00:48:58,852
Yeah, you have to own this thing.

641
00:48:58,913 --> 00:49:00,373
You only use 5% of the time.

642
00:49:00,373 --> 00:49:02,393
Yeah, they're self-driving cars

643
00:49:02,393 --> 00:49:05,093
that make it all cheap and safe and available.

644
00:49:05,093 --> 00:49:12,473
and then you in fact can let your car you let your car out into the system to self-drive other

645
00:49:12,473 --> 00:49:17,093
people around when you're not using it and then everybody's adding to that network there's less

646
00:49:17,093 --> 00:49:22,973
demand for cars the automotive industry dives the trucking industry dives as far as employment yeah

647
00:49:22,973 --> 00:49:29,093
we see the inflation of tech lower prices while it crunches up those inefficiencies we call jobs

648
00:49:29,093 --> 00:49:34,613
and it gets cheaper and cheaper over time that's deflationary because you end up when i was at

649
00:49:34,613 --> 00:49:41,913
network school we had a guy come from the leading chinese robotics factor um company um the one that

650
00:49:41,913 --> 00:49:47,213
makes the dog the the robotic dog that jumps up and back yeah yeah terrific can't remember what

651
00:49:47,213 --> 00:49:54,253
okay i don't know um unitry unitry is the company um brought the dog whatever and then he gave his

652
00:49:54,253 --> 00:49:59,773
speech and and he people asked him about like where do you see the world going and he says well

653
00:49:59,773 --> 00:50:07,013
we absolutely know for sure that the cost of software will fall to literally just how much

654
00:50:07,013 --> 00:50:12,433
does it cost in electricity to run the computer? Because we're going to remove the human completely

655
00:50:12,433 --> 00:50:17,913
from it because they're already as good and they will soon be very much better than humans at

656
00:50:17,913 --> 00:50:27,973
coding. So the cost of software falls to the cost of energy. And the cost of hardware also falls to

657
00:50:27,973 --> 00:50:34,433
energy because now you've got the robot does the mining, the robot transports it to the facility.

658
00:50:34,773 --> 00:50:41,813
The facility is all autonomous. It creates whatever you want out of it. So all of that is just an

659
00:50:41,813 --> 00:50:47,973
energy input. And that energy gets cheaper and cheaper over time as we're able to capture more

660
00:50:47,973 --> 00:50:57,413
of it from more efficient sources. And so this was the thought exercise I went through when I was

661
00:50:57,413 --> 00:51:02,393
there three weeks in and I was trying to decide on a project to do for the boot camp thing,

662
00:51:02,553 --> 00:51:09,033
which was, okay, in the future, where is there going to be any industry that has a remaining

663
00:51:09,033 --> 00:51:15,453
margin? If software crashes to the cost of compute and hardware crashes to the cost of energy,

664
00:51:15,653 --> 00:51:19,173
there's no margin there. There's no opportunity to have a business there.

665
00:51:20,113 --> 00:51:24,193
So what is the opportunity? And the only thing that we could come up with

666
00:51:24,193 --> 00:51:28,533
is basically like bespoke performance things,

667
00:51:28,533 --> 00:51:31,253
like playing music or whatever like that,

668
00:51:31,313 --> 00:51:33,093
that people would pay something for,

669
00:51:33,493 --> 00:51:37,793
and Bitcoin mining, which would be mining Bitcoin,

670
00:51:38,433 --> 00:51:39,953
which is Apex Capital,

671
00:51:40,493 --> 00:51:44,073
which powers both the software and the hardware

672
00:51:44,073 --> 00:51:46,073
at their crashed cost,

673
00:51:46,852 --> 00:51:48,693
mining that for less than the cost

674
00:51:48,693 --> 00:51:50,173
than it takes to sell it.

675
00:51:50,173 --> 00:52:20,153
And so we couldn't find any flaw with that thinking. And I think that's really fascinating to try and consider the future. But it may so be that in the future, the only industry that is global, that is left with any sort of margin is Bitcoin mining, which is a race to the bottom in terms of energy costs, which should propel us, Kardashev level one, level two, level three, towards capital.

676
00:52:20,173 --> 00:52:27,133
capturing hopefully all of the energy of our universe that was a fun little jock that i was

677
00:52:27,133 --> 00:52:32,233
trying to wrap my mind around this this idea there would have been would be no margin i mean it's all

678
00:52:32,233 --> 00:52:36,893
capital somebody's own gonna own the keys and the shares that corresponds these things that

679
00:52:36,893 --> 00:52:43,893
are doing the things right yeah but as soon as you introduce one competitor and they undercut

680
00:52:43,893 --> 00:52:51,513
that competitor right and then it's just a race to the bottom like and this is like you know it's

681
00:52:51,513 --> 00:52:57,653
it's all just been like this is um in terms of like netflix subscription like as soon as netflix

682
00:52:57,653 --> 00:53:04,893
came out it just became a race to the bottom with all the other services uh who can get cheaper

683
00:53:04,893 --> 00:53:10,793
yeah that's what it is it's price competition is a race to the bottom on prices yeah because

684
00:53:10,793 --> 00:53:18,113
consumers benefit. And because in a digital economy, since there are no barriers to entry,

685
00:53:18,793 --> 00:53:24,973
everyone has access to the best thing. And so why would you ever buy anything but the best thing,

686
00:53:24,973 --> 00:53:33,073
which leads to, as he notes, the creation of monopolies. And so when you have that monopoly

687
00:53:33,073 --> 00:53:39,693
power, then the only way for somebody to wrest away that monopoly power from you is to undercut

688
00:53:39,693 --> 00:53:44,832
you on price because you've already got the entire market so they're not there's no scraps for the

689
00:53:44,832 --> 00:53:52,713
for them to fight over they just have to take it by doing the thing cheaper okay possibly this

690
00:53:52,713 --> 00:53:58,213
maybe helped me to understand a lot of this too so talking about the whole economy and all these

691
00:53:58,213 --> 00:54:02,593
exponential increases is difficult to kind of understand but if we just consider the future

692
00:54:02,593 --> 00:54:08,493
of intelligence that is a part of the thesis that you kind of own to understand a lot of this book

693
00:54:08,493 --> 00:54:10,993
You really just need to think about future of AI is what I'm saying.

694
00:54:11,533 --> 00:54:17,473
And that's so some past technologies have destroyed jobs but created new ones.

695
00:54:17,713 --> 00:54:24,973
There are reasons to think that AI is not going to be like that type of past technological disruption.

696
00:54:25,352 --> 00:54:38,332
When we talk about AI here, as I mentioned earlier, we're kind of really talking about the holy grail of AI, which super intelligent, artificial, general intelligent, not domain specific, something that is general.

697
00:54:38,493 --> 00:54:40,433
able to work across different domains,

698
00:54:40,973 --> 00:54:42,313
can take info from one domain,

699
00:54:42,413 --> 00:54:43,073
apply it to the other,

700
00:54:43,153 --> 00:54:44,593
do the things that humans can do.

701
00:54:45,033 --> 00:54:47,813
Or even specific, like, or even domain specific,

702
00:54:48,013 --> 00:54:50,852
like Imanema Stock, like the creator of stability AI.

703
00:54:51,113 --> 00:54:53,213
Like he, that's, that's his vision

704
00:54:53,213 --> 00:54:55,193
that he thinks is actually more useful.

705
00:54:56,013 --> 00:54:59,753
Which, because if we create those domain specific ones,

706
00:55:00,273 --> 00:55:04,913
then we negate the risk of the, you know,

707
00:55:04,913 --> 00:55:12,153
overlord, you know, of AGI that could negate that risk and then you're just losing out to

708
00:55:12,153 --> 00:55:16,653
the competitor who has not negated that risk. This is true. This is absolutely true. Yeah,

709
00:55:16,713 --> 00:55:21,493
the AGI is the holy grail because then who is the master? And that's kind of the way the booth

710
00:55:21,493 --> 00:55:27,753
frames it here. There's a really interesting exploration of the nature of artificial

711
00:55:27,753 --> 00:55:31,673
intelligence in reference to human intelligence. We'll get into a bit of that here, but there's

712
00:55:31,673 --> 00:55:36,233
more in the book. So if you're interested in artificial intelligence, this is a really good

713
00:55:36,233 --> 00:55:41,293
starter point. There's a lot of complicated stuff on how AI, machine learning, all that works. This

714
00:55:41,293 --> 00:55:46,352
book is very accessible on this. And this is where we should have the caveat that you may not be

715
00:55:46,352 --> 00:55:51,013
interested in artificial intelligence, but it is interested in you and it will affect your life at

716
00:55:51,013 --> 00:55:57,933
a fundamental level. Unavoidably, there's nothing you can do about it. So it is worth exploring and

717
00:55:57,933 --> 00:56:05,073
at least coming, at least spending some time to try and become comfortable with the inevitable

718
00:56:05,073 --> 00:56:06,393
changes that will occur.

719
00:56:07,133 --> 00:56:17,573
Because the people that are, you know, that's the real problem of deflation is not prices

720
00:56:17,573 --> 00:56:18,173
decreasing.

721
00:56:18,332 --> 00:56:23,852
That's great for literally everybody except for the people that are overextended on credit.

722
00:56:24,633 --> 00:56:27,373
And even for them, eventually it's way better.

723
00:56:27,933 --> 00:56:36,213
the real problem is the loss of identity because we have so identified with these jobs that,

724
00:56:36,773 --> 00:56:42,933
you know, when you meet somebody, the second question that you have after what their name is,

725
00:56:42,933 --> 00:56:50,393
is what do you do? And so this is the identity that tells the story that becomes the narrative

726
00:56:50,393 --> 00:56:57,093
that is the bias through which we see the entire world. And so if that thing is shattered and you're

727
00:56:57,093 --> 00:57:01,033
not prepared for it, then it will be a jarring experience.

728
00:57:01,373 --> 00:57:04,553
So it's going to be jarring regardless, be it right, everybody should be interested because

729
00:57:04,553 --> 00:57:06,653
it's interested in you, this thing that we're creating.

730
00:57:07,113 --> 00:57:07,913
Human intelligence.

731
00:57:08,753 --> 00:57:12,553
So if you want to understand artificial intelligence, Booth says, take a look at human intelligence

732
00:57:12,553 --> 00:57:13,673
to see maybe the arc.

733
00:57:13,953 --> 00:57:16,153
If you can, we get to artificial general intelligence.

734
00:57:16,533 --> 00:57:18,373
Well, human intelligence was able to reach it.

735
00:57:18,433 --> 00:57:23,093
So let's look at human intelligence, human intelligence before the written word.

736
00:57:23,233 --> 00:57:26,673
Consider that all info stored and transmitted orally.

737
00:57:26,673 --> 00:57:28,993
making it degrade very rapidly.

738
00:57:29,453 --> 00:57:32,813
Again, with telephone, whenever you tell somebody something and they tell somebody else,

739
00:57:33,133 --> 00:57:36,093
stored through oral traditions, it degrades very rapidly.

740
00:57:36,273 --> 00:57:38,693
We get religions and myths maybe as a result of this.

741
00:57:39,653 --> 00:57:41,533
But then we developed the printing press.

742
00:57:41,733 --> 00:57:45,313
Books become external mass storage units for our brain.

743
00:57:45,693 --> 00:57:49,832
They facilitate a massive knowledge accumulation and growth.

744
00:57:50,093 --> 00:57:52,753
They also facilitate application of the scientific method

745
00:57:52,753 --> 00:57:56,293
because we can now write down our errors,

746
00:57:56,793 --> 00:57:58,733
write a new book to correct that error

747
00:57:58,733 --> 00:58:11,885
and then have recorded the correction to an error and then keep on doing that iteratively over and over And we shouldn like Booth knows this is a really cool point time frame wise we shouldn underestimate this

748
00:58:11,885 --> 00:58:14,505
in the exponential growth of intelligence, the printing press.

749
00:58:15,065 --> 00:58:20,025
Our brains were the same structurally for the last roughly 300,000 years.

750
00:58:20,025 --> 00:58:22,725
We've had the printing press for the last 600,

751
00:58:23,265 --> 00:58:25,525
and look at technology since that time.

752
00:58:25,605 --> 00:58:27,425
That was obviously an inflection point,

753
00:58:27,425 --> 00:58:32,585
This ability to record things in an external hard drive for our brain that is the book.

754
00:58:32,705 --> 00:58:36,825
All of this, like these, this is exponential tech in these shelves right here.

755
00:58:36,885 --> 00:58:39,225
The book is such a phenomenal invention.

756
00:58:39,865 --> 00:58:41,865
I'm glad you said it, phrased it that way.

757
00:58:42,125 --> 00:58:44,185
As this is an external hard drive.

758
00:58:44,285 --> 00:58:47,245
This is an extension of memory.

759
00:58:47,585 --> 00:58:51,685
It's an extension of the brain that is outside of the human body.

760
00:58:52,425 --> 00:58:56,325
And so this is quite potentially the book.

761
00:58:56,325 --> 00:58:56,565
Sorry.

762
00:58:56,565 --> 00:59:12,545
Books are quite possibly the first example of our attempt to merge ourselves with a technology outside of our physical body.

763
00:59:13,305 --> 00:59:24,685
And we are moving further and further into that direction with the smartphone that has become ubiquitous and the devices that are on the wrist that give biofeedback and things like that.

764
00:59:24,685 --> 00:59:26,945
Right. So we have, go ahead.

765
00:59:27,085 --> 00:59:32,705
I was just going to say, and then on to Neuralink and eventually this idea of merging with the machine.

766
00:59:32,865 --> 00:59:34,345
No, and that's where I was going to go.

767
00:59:34,445 --> 00:59:39,525
We have books and then we get computers, obviously an exponential form of data storage.

768
00:59:39,525 --> 00:59:45,125
You can put all of the world's libraries and books into like a single hard drive or something like that.

769
00:59:45,125 --> 00:59:56,025
So can these computers then accumulating massive amounts of data come to reason like humans in a general sort of way such that we can get AGI?

770
00:59:56,565 --> 00:59:58,305
Well, humans learn by practicing.

771
00:59:58,625 --> 01:00:01,225
In order to learn, we reinforce patterns.

772
01:00:02,425 --> 01:00:05,225
We are very – you gave the computer a look.

773
01:00:05,285 --> 01:00:05,805
Are we recording?

774
01:00:06,105 --> 01:00:06,705
Yeah, we are.

775
01:00:06,785 --> 01:00:09,665
I was just like – I was just checking me out, checking you out.

776
01:00:09,785 --> 01:00:10,606
Are we looking good?

777
01:00:11,025 --> 01:00:11,445
There we go.

778
01:00:11,485 --> 01:00:12,185
That's all that matters.

779
01:00:12,185 --> 01:00:15,305
As long as we look good, I mean, content-wise, I think that's what we're going for.

780
01:00:15,745 --> 01:00:17,405
We've got to try to strip this approach.

781
01:00:18,045 --> 01:00:18,405
Okay.

782
01:00:18,905 --> 01:00:20,525
We are, yeah.

783
01:00:21,425 --> 01:00:22,445
Sorry, I threw you off.

784
01:00:22,545 --> 01:00:23,505
No, you did.

785
01:00:23,665 --> 01:00:24,725
I'd just love to see you smile.

786
01:00:24,885 --> 01:00:30,025
We are very limited by our brain regarding how many iterations we can do on something.

787
01:00:30,145 --> 01:00:37,305
So if we rely on training for training our own intelligence, we're kind of limited on how much of it we can do in what time frame.

788
01:00:37,405 --> 01:00:40,765
And we commonly toss around like 10,000 hours to become like a master in something.

789
01:00:40,765 --> 01:00:42,145
There's some research that says that, right?

790
01:00:42,185 --> 01:00:49,405
A computer can condense all of that training, this pattern recognition analysis or whatever, into very short timeframes.

791
01:00:49,525 --> 01:00:52,505
A computer can store it all with perfect fidelity.

792
01:00:53,065 --> 01:00:56,225
The human mind, in the other hand, encodes information in different ways.

793
01:00:56,585 --> 01:01:00,165
Two people could have the same experience and remember it completely differently.

794
01:01:00,645 --> 01:01:03,205
Two cameras record the same thing.

795
01:01:03,305 --> 01:01:06,345
They're going to have slightly different angles, but they've recorded the same thing, right?

796
01:01:06,345 --> 01:01:12,705
so the information that we learn passes through our filters and previous experience the patterns

797
01:01:12,705 --> 01:01:17,106
we already know it's an emotional process computers don't have that they do not attach

798
01:01:17,106 --> 01:01:22,545
motion this emotion to the storage of information they do not have bias problems like we do unless

799
01:01:22,545 --> 01:01:29,645
you program bias explicitly in what seems like superhuman intelligence is just pattern recognition

800
01:01:29,645 --> 01:01:34,885
and error correction at scale is the it's kind of the culmination of that like that's all we need

801
01:01:34,885 --> 01:01:39,925
you do to get to super intelligence. It's not something mystical or magical. I mean, the way

802
01:01:39,925 --> 01:01:45,465
Booth reduces it is just pattern recognition and error correction at scale. And in this,

803
01:01:45,945 --> 01:01:51,365
it's not about just scaling computational power. We alluded to or mentioned this earlier, but also

804
01:01:51,365 --> 01:01:56,645
how large the data set is that you're bringing in. And you mentioned this, Lucas, this gives China

805
01:01:56,645 --> 01:02:03,345
an advantage because it has two things, a large population and state control or capacity to control

806
01:02:03,345 --> 01:02:04,905
and monitor that population.

807
01:02:04,905 --> 01:02:09,085
So it can collect information in various ways,

808
01:02:09,285 --> 01:02:12,445
movements, behaviors, maybe even biometrics,

809
01:02:12,885 --> 01:02:15,265
through its control and surveillance of its citizens,

810
01:02:15,545 --> 01:02:18,465
feed this in to process it through an AI,

811
01:02:18,825 --> 01:02:20,245
build up this data set,

812
01:02:20,545 --> 01:02:22,945
uses a ton of computational power,

813
01:02:23,265 --> 01:02:25,525
and then it's well on the way in the race to AGI.

814
01:02:26,305 --> 01:02:29,065
The USA has a corresponding weakness.

815
01:02:29,945 --> 01:02:31,745
We tend to break up monopolies,

816
01:02:31,745 --> 01:02:34,505
those types of control mechanisms as they arise,

817
01:02:34,985 --> 01:02:37,385
even though that maybe is what would be needed

818
01:02:37,385 --> 01:02:39,745
or advisable to pull a bunch of data together.

819
01:02:40,005 --> 01:02:42,265
We do have decentralized AI projects

820
01:02:42,265 --> 01:02:44,665
and even OpenAI is like a nonprofit, right?

821
01:02:44,725 --> 01:02:48,345
It doesn't have a separate thing that it's own.

822
01:02:48,705 --> 01:02:49,645
It was back then.

823
01:02:49,785 --> 01:02:50,185
No, it has.

824
01:02:50,285 --> 01:02:51,045
It tried to change,

825
01:02:51,125 --> 01:02:52,565
but Altman wasn't able to change it

826
01:02:52,565 --> 01:02:53,825
from a nonprofit structure, right?

827
01:02:54,365 --> 01:02:55,925
And they do charge for a service,

828
01:02:56,025 --> 01:02:57,625
but it's a separate type of thing.

829
01:02:57,685 --> 01:02:58,925
In any case, the important point for this

830
01:02:58,925 --> 01:03:00,885
is that OpenAI doesn't have control

831
01:03:00,885 --> 01:03:03,465
over its own incoming data stream

832
01:03:03,465 --> 01:03:06,265
in the way that like Instagram, Amazon, Facebook

833
01:03:06,265 --> 01:03:10,065
all have ways to trigger us

834
01:03:10,065 --> 01:03:12,885
to give them massive amounts of information freely,

835
01:03:13,145 --> 01:03:14,545
which they can then, you know,

836
01:03:14,606 --> 01:03:17,165
use as this large data set to train AI.

837
01:03:17,905 --> 01:03:20,106
These are the types of monopolies

838
01:03:20,106 --> 01:03:23,305
that might be needed to compete with a state monopoly

839
01:03:23,305 --> 01:03:26,185
like China in the accumulation of data.

840
01:03:26,385 --> 01:03:27,745
So data is very important.

841
01:03:27,745 --> 01:03:33,325
important to kind of summarize the ai revolution in a nutshell the significance and all this

842
01:03:33,325 --> 01:03:40,285
one we could say error correction is at the heart of intelligence right we saw that in the books

843
01:03:40,285 --> 01:03:44,106
when we got the printing press we corrected our errors accumulated that and our science took off

844
01:03:44,106 --> 01:03:49,825
error correction is at the heart of intelligence two information is growing at an exponential

845
01:03:49,825 --> 01:03:55,065
pace all this data we're accumulating information three information is being transferred to

846
01:03:55,065 --> 01:03:59,445
computers that can gain knowledge and correct errors faster than humans.

847
01:03:59,825 --> 01:04:02,645
So error correction is at the heart of intelligence.

848
01:04:02,805 --> 01:04:05,685
Computers can do it very rapidly, which leads us to number four.

849
01:04:06,065 --> 01:04:10,925
Inelectably, inevitably, every one of our jobs is a function of our intelligence,

850
01:04:11,385 --> 01:04:13,785
which I guess five is the electable, inevitable result.

851
01:04:14,045 --> 01:04:18,665
Therefore, every one of our jobs can and will be replaced by a sufficiently advanced AGI.

852
01:04:20,845 --> 01:04:22,925
Yeah, it seems like there are no jobs at all.

853
01:04:22,925 --> 01:04:34,665
If everything's a result of human intelligence, conceptually, we're all replaceable in that sense as an economic producer, an actor in the economy, a producer.

854
01:04:35,405 --> 01:04:50,865
If technological deflation is about eliminating inefficiencies and waste, and inefficiencies and waste are exactly the space that open up for human jobs, then AI will end nearly all inefficiency and waste and correspondingly end nearly all human jobs.

855
01:04:50,865 --> 01:04:55,505
I mean, that's kind of the end point period, like Donzo.

856
01:04:56,106 --> 01:04:58,645
It's a pretty indestructible argument that he gives.

857
01:04:59,445 --> 01:05:07,405
And there's, you can try and take shots at it and say, oh, there's certain jobs that they're not based on intelligence.

858
01:05:07,405 --> 01:05:12,945
They're based on, you know, whatever, grit or athletic performance.

859
01:05:13,305 --> 01:05:13,465
Aura.

860
01:05:13,945 --> 01:05:15,485
Aura, yes, aura.

861
01:05:15,805 --> 01:05:16,005
Yeah.

862
01:05:16,505 --> 01:05:17,705
Hara, aura, whatever you want to call it.

863
01:05:17,705 --> 01:05:19,005
Did I ever have aura?

864
01:05:20,145 --> 01:05:20,705
Yeah.

865
01:05:20,865 --> 01:05:23,525
I mean, the chick that Elon keeps tweeting about.

866
01:05:23,905 --> 01:05:24,845
You think she has aura?

867
01:05:25,845 --> 01:05:27,025
Other people do.

868
01:05:27,465 --> 01:05:27,785
Oh.

869
01:05:28,025 --> 01:05:28,505
I don't.

870
01:05:28,606 --> 01:05:29,385
Other people do whatever.

871
01:05:29,765 --> 01:05:30,125
Yeah.

872
01:05:32,865 --> 01:05:38,625
But, you know, if it's not intelligence, then it's performance, and performance can be mimicked.

873
01:05:38,945 --> 01:05:39,106
Yeah.

874
01:05:39,365 --> 01:05:40,565
And it can be mimicked.

875
01:05:40,665 --> 01:05:46,785
It's not, and again, I think it is important to make this distinction, it's not 10,000 hours, it's 10,000 iterations.

876
01:05:47,565 --> 01:05:50,245
It's not the time that's put in.

877
01:05:50,245 --> 01:06:11,525
It's a combination of the time and the willingness to change based on new information. And that's where humans struggle because, as Tony Robbins says, we don't change until the pain of changing is greater than the earth. We don't change until the pain of staying the same is greater than the pain of changing.

878
01:06:11,525 --> 01:06:35,545
And so we will all experience a certain amount of change as pain before we choose to make that change. We will all watch, you know, we will all watch Bitcoin go up 10,000 percent before we start to move into it and watch our wealth decrease.

879
01:06:35,545 --> 01:06:43,705
We will all make the mistake of ignoring our partner seven or eight times until they become upset.

880
01:06:44,025 --> 01:06:49,225
You know, we'll all make these mistakes because we have these priors that give us a bias.

881
01:06:49,525 --> 01:07:02,345
And in order to make a change the very first time, we have to have absolute humility and be willing to always carry with us that strong opinion.

882
01:07:02,345 --> 01:07:07,205
I mean, you can never have changed the first time on everything like 10,000 hours.

883
01:07:07,425 --> 01:07:09,085
We can't like computers can't.

884
01:07:09,126 --> 01:07:10,065
Right. Computers can't.

885
01:07:10,106 --> 01:07:17,565
But humans, 10,000 hours is like a hard limit, not like specifically 10,000, but some vast amount of time to train yourself to play the guitar.

886
01:07:17,685 --> 01:07:21,645
You can't just say, I'm going to approach you with humility and then just bang something out perfectly.

887
01:07:21,885 --> 01:07:23,685
You have to put in the time of retraining your.

888
01:07:23,685 --> 01:07:24,725
You do have to put in the time.

889
01:07:24,725 --> 01:07:32,965
But like Gladwell's work showed that when he revisited that same concept in a later book, he found that it was actually probably more like 3,000 hours.

890
01:07:33,245 --> 01:07:34,606
It wasn't 10,000.

891
01:07:34,626 --> 01:07:35,106
It's irrelevant.

892
01:07:35,685 --> 01:07:43,685
The number, yeah, the number varies because what matters more is the intensity and the error correction.

893
01:07:43,685 --> 01:07:49,385
The point is just that it takes an immense amount of time because humans have to brute force it in kind of a way that like computers don't.

894
01:07:49,465 --> 01:07:55,145
We have to retrain like things in a different and less efficient way than a computer can retrain.

895
01:07:55,245 --> 01:07:56,025
It can train itself.

896
01:07:57,325 --> 01:07:57,445
Yeah.

897
01:07:57,545 --> 01:08:07,265
I mean, it's it's only it's it's immense until you consider what is the cost of not making that investment, which is greater.

898
01:08:07,626 --> 01:08:07,845
Yeah.

899
01:08:07,925 --> 01:08:09,685
And so then it then it becomes not immense.

900
01:08:09,845 --> 01:08:10,065
Right.

901
01:08:10,065 --> 01:08:16,565
i mean kind of except for like if i think playing the cello that's not it'd be a big time investment

902
01:08:16,565 --> 01:08:21,885
but i'm not it's not a big thing to miss out for it for me not for you because somebody right yeah

903
01:08:21,885 --> 01:08:30,166
yeah everything's all about you it is as far as like not playing a cello yeah um there's

904
01:08:30,166 --> 01:08:34,405
i'm warming this point up somewhere and i think i'll bring it up here because this is

905
01:08:34,405 --> 01:08:40,525
and it kind of goes better at the end but instead of just dancing around it

906
01:08:40,525 --> 01:08:47,865
yeah because you brought this up too i think about this a lot so i'm backing into this whole idea

907
01:08:47,865 --> 01:08:54,205
but what is it what is unique about humans what is the what is the job that will still remain when

908
01:08:54,205 --> 01:08:59,325
all of the jobs have been stripped away all of our ability to remedy an inefficiency or some waste

909
01:08:59,325 --> 01:09:01,425
has been taken over by AI?

910
01:09:01,865 --> 01:09:03,325
What is the function of humanity?

911
01:09:03,965 --> 01:09:08,045
And one, so maybe it's not a job.

912
01:09:08,145 --> 01:09:10,085
Maybe this role is something we don't call a job.

913
01:09:10,166 --> 01:09:13,785
Maybe the whole idea of job is like a thing

914
01:09:13,785 --> 01:09:17,166
that was created by agrarian civilization

915
01:09:17,166 --> 01:09:20,145
that is actually an evolutionary mismatch

916
01:09:20,145 --> 01:09:23,105
for humans to evolve in a different setting.

917
01:09:23,105 --> 01:09:24,905
Maybe the job was never a good thing

918
01:09:24,905 --> 01:09:27,166
and never a good thing to go down in the first place.

919
01:09:27,166 --> 01:09:46,405
But also, like, imagine AI is a mirror. The mirror can perfectly mimic any outward manifestation, anything you emit. You look at a mirror and you dance in front of the mirror. It can do all of that, right? AI is a mirror in that it can take any outward behavior that we have and perfectly mimic that.

920
01:09:46,405 --> 01:10:00,505
What does that leave? What does the mirror not penetrate? The mirror doesn't penetrate into your subjectivity, into what happens on the inside when your experience of doing the thing in front of the mirror is never replicable by the mirror.

921
01:10:00,505 --> 01:10:16,126
I mean, maybe that's a philosophical question. Does AI become conscious at some point? But even if it does, its silicon or LLN consciousness is going to be different than human consciousness, which is always going to have like an emotional valence.

922
01:10:16,126 --> 01:10:24,085
emotion is kind of framed as a bias but it's also just irreducibly human and the ability

923
01:10:24,085 --> 01:10:31,025
or the necessity of being motivated by valences in your environment like being attracted to some

924
01:10:31,025 --> 01:10:35,685
things repulsed by others this these are types of things that are going to remain

925
01:10:35,685 --> 01:10:42,305
in like just so human and so what does that manifest as or what can that be as a role or a

926
01:10:42,305 --> 01:10:55,445
Maybe taste, like dictating the direction of the things that we want to consume, the tastemakers, those who can detect or steer an aesthetic drift.

927
01:10:55,445 --> 01:11:05,405
Like the AI can create all of the things perfectly, but can it motivate a directional change in the way we look at things?

928
01:11:05,626 --> 01:11:18,705
Or will that always be like a product of human subjectivity because we alone feel the need to do that, to move out of a stasis through desire, emotion, etc.

929
01:11:18,705 --> 01:11:27,585
around this is a really good question because i think it was you that was talking about this

930
01:11:27,585 --> 01:11:36,565
was that um a lot of us don't really know what we like a lot of us really yes we just like what

931
01:11:36,565 --> 01:11:43,126
we think we've chosen to like which is something that's been fed to us out of a limited number of

932
01:11:43,126 --> 01:11:53,805
options that is there to invoke nostalgia or it's there to invoke, um, a desire to be

933
01:11:53,805 --> 01:11:58,626
like someone that we want to aspire to.

934
01:11:59,465 --> 01:12:11,685
Um, but you know, if, if we're walking around with VR in, in a VR world and we're looking

935
01:12:11,685 --> 01:12:18,126
just as cool as Kanye and we're looking just as cool as Kim and we've got all the things that we

936
01:12:18,126 --> 01:12:25,865
ever wanted in terms of that um you know is there still going to be a place for that because like

937
01:12:25,865 --> 01:12:32,685
like that tastemaker I think about like when so like when Vans shoes became popular I think this

938
01:12:32,685 --> 01:12:39,726
is the story was that what they did was they just went into uh Brooklyn I think in New York

939
01:12:39,726 --> 01:12:42,505
and they sent basically a scout.

940
01:12:42,945 --> 01:12:43,205
Yeah.

941
01:12:43,305 --> 01:12:45,945
And they told the scout, go find the cool kids

942
01:12:45,945 --> 01:12:49,445
and then convince them to wear our shoes.

943
01:12:49,645 --> 01:12:49,905
Yeah.

944
01:12:49,965 --> 01:12:51,626
Because if the cool kids wear our shoes,

945
01:12:51,726 --> 01:12:53,445
the other people want to wear our shoes.

946
01:12:53,565 --> 01:12:56,605
And so this is that aura thing where it's just like,

947
01:12:56,805 --> 01:13:00,025
you're just, all you're doing is you,

948
01:13:01,126 --> 01:13:03,265
this is not the choice that you made on your own.

949
01:13:03,365 --> 01:13:04,726
This is not your actual taste.

950
01:13:04,845 --> 01:13:07,025
This is just, oh, I want to be like this person,

951
01:13:07,085 --> 01:13:08,145
so I want to mimic them.

952
01:13:08,145 --> 01:13:13,545
yeah you've talked about this before it's not even the mimicking or the so this is a mimetic

953
01:13:13,545 --> 01:13:18,845
desire yeah this is mimetic desire rene gerard but in some of gerard's older stuff this is

954
01:13:18,845 --> 01:13:25,345
like my favorite one right here coolest whole bookshelf on myself yeah to see desire in the

955
01:13:25,345 --> 01:13:31,025
novel right here um so he talks about mimetic desire as metaphysical desire so it's not the

956
01:13:31,025 --> 01:13:36,525
desire of mimesis it's the desire of being it's not that we desire to imitate kanye's that we

957
01:13:36,525 --> 01:13:42,245
desire to be kanye and so we acquired the trappings of kanye and you can see maybe where this is headed

958
01:13:42,245 --> 01:13:47,805
that's always impossible yeah you can you could obtain all of the the trappings of kanye you can

959
01:13:47,805 --> 01:13:53,705
even have vr goggles and whatever be whatever simulation that makes you into kanye what you'll

960
01:13:53,705 --> 01:14:00,666
never have is the interiority of kanye that says i'm self-sufficient i'm okay the way i am that's

961
01:14:00,666 --> 01:14:05,985
what we're all seeking when we try to seek these things is we see the external kanye and think that

962
01:14:05,985 --> 01:14:12,445
he must have an internal feeling of completion that we lack because we don't feel what he feels.

963
01:14:12,485 --> 01:14:16,226
We don't feel that he feels the same pain and lack on his interiority, right?

964
01:14:16,245 --> 01:14:21,245
We only see that he looks perfectly self-actualized, perfectly perfect, right?

965
01:14:21,726 --> 01:14:22,905
Not Kanye, whoever is.

966
01:14:22,905 --> 01:14:23,885
Probably a bad example.

967
01:14:23,985 --> 01:14:24,425
Right, yeah.

968
01:14:24,785 --> 01:14:26,166
We started on a bad path.

969
01:14:26,865 --> 01:14:29,065
So pick your person of your own.

970
01:14:29,245 --> 01:14:30,245
Pick your own God.

971
01:14:30,405 --> 01:14:33,065
Because that's what you do with metaphysical desire is you pick your God.

972
01:14:33,065 --> 01:14:42,925
I think the thing that like we all experience the world from our own perspective, which is a perspective that we, of course, feel from the inside out.

973
01:14:43,025 --> 01:14:51,785
And it's a feeling of lack and deficiency in some way, even if it's the only way is we intuit our own mortality and that we're going to die.

974
01:14:52,126 --> 01:14:57,245
And when you look at somebody else, you perceive them as an exterior thing.

975
01:14:57,245 --> 01:15:02,565
you don't perceive again the pain that they might feel that they feel also a corresponding lack a

976
01:15:02,565 --> 01:15:08,605
corresponding sense of their own mortality um we got kind of far afield with this no i can you pull

977
01:15:08,605 --> 01:15:13,945
this home because i forgot so you you were at i don't know if you were asking it rhetorically but

978
01:15:13,945 --> 01:15:20,965
um i'm gonna answer it because the question was like what does separate us from the ai yeah and

979
01:15:20,965 --> 01:15:24,565
And my answer is, I don't know.

980
01:15:26,105 --> 01:15:32,865
But I know that we don't as yet know what makes us us.

981
01:15:33,005 --> 01:15:34,165
That's a really good point.

982
01:15:34,165 --> 01:15:41,205
So how can we know that an AI can or can't be us?

983
01:15:41,266 --> 01:15:43,865
Because we can quantify everything.

984
01:15:44,245 --> 01:15:47,985
We can quantify all of the biochemical reactions,

985
01:15:47,985 --> 01:15:53,785
and we can quantify the calories in and the calories out and we can look at the genome

986
01:15:53,785 --> 01:16:01,685
and we can see how the genes are expressed, but we don't have a location for where the soul is.

987
01:16:02,266 --> 01:16:10,405
We don't know where in our body or if it's in our body or if speaking about it in terms of it

988
01:16:10,405 --> 01:16:17,285
or it being somewhere or having a location or having a weight or an embodiment,

989
01:16:17,285 --> 01:16:19,365
we don't know what consciousness is.

990
01:16:20,005 --> 01:16:25,665
We can, we think that we can replicate it.

991
01:16:25,905 --> 01:16:26,405
Yes.

992
01:16:27,585 --> 01:16:29,245
We think we can.

993
01:16:29,766 --> 01:16:34,045
And we can certainly, at this point,

994
01:16:34,185 --> 01:16:37,585
you can definitely fool someone with an AI

995
01:16:37,585 --> 01:16:43,285
into believing that it has some sort of

996
01:16:43,285 --> 01:16:52,885
conscious behavior but we we still don't know that about ourselves we don't know that about

997
01:16:52,885 --> 01:16:57,965
so i wonder we know that about ourselves we can introspect and like feel our and know we are

998
01:16:57,965 --> 01:17:01,965
conscious i think therefore i am that's descartes point it's the only thing you can know

999
01:17:01,965 --> 01:17:07,205
the very fact of thinking affirms that you are a thinking thing but i can't know that you

1000
01:17:07,205 --> 01:17:13,345
are thinking thing or that you exist on the inside but who is the thinker that's that's the question

1001
01:17:13,345 --> 01:17:20,685
right that was my german buddy juba he talked to me about how when he got into meditation that's

1002
01:17:20,685 --> 01:17:25,005
simply what he would do is he would sit there for four hours with his eyes closed and he would say

1003
01:17:25,005 --> 01:17:30,825
who in his mind he would say who is the thinker so i think therefore i am but who is the thinker

1004
01:17:30,825 --> 01:17:34,025
because these are Lucas's hands.

1005
01:17:34,205 --> 01:17:35,585
These are my hands.

1006
01:17:36,345 --> 01:17:38,605
These are my legs.

1007
01:17:39,905 --> 01:17:42,425
But they are, by saying that,

1008
01:17:42,665 --> 01:17:45,305
what I'm saying is that this belongs to me.

1009
01:17:45,626 --> 01:17:46,365
Who is me?

1010
01:17:46,545 --> 01:17:46,845
Yeah.

1011
01:17:47,145 --> 01:17:47,385
Right?

1012
01:17:47,385 --> 01:17:48,205
I am separate.

1013
01:17:48,405 --> 01:17:51,465
I am, there is a point of separation between me

1014
01:17:51,465 --> 01:17:53,465
and the things that I define as mine.

1015
01:17:53,626 --> 01:17:57,885
My car, my guitar, my foot, my knee, my leg.

1016
01:17:57,885 --> 01:18:02,266
These are all things that are outside of the thing that is me.

1017
01:18:02,425 --> 01:18:02,626
Yeah.

1018
01:18:02,665 --> 01:18:04,385
And I don't know what me is.

1019
01:18:04,505 --> 01:18:04,626
Right.

1020
01:18:04,645 --> 01:18:05,585
It could be many things.

1021
01:18:05,585 --> 01:18:16,585
And again, just if we take AI as a mirror that can perfectly ape all of our outward manifestations, what it can't ape is this process of ourselves asking ourselves these very introspective questions.

1022
01:18:17,025 --> 01:18:18,425
Who is the thinker of the thought?

1023
01:18:19,305 --> 01:18:26,245
Am I just a field of which thoughts arise and thoughts pass like clouds in front of a sun that is my consciousness or something like that?

1024
01:18:26,245 --> 01:18:30,145
So these are, I mean, can you, is there value to these?

1025
01:18:30,226 --> 01:18:31,405
Can you make them economical?

1026
01:18:31,585 --> 01:18:33,205
That's kind of what we want in a job, right?

1027
01:18:33,245 --> 01:18:35,885
It's something we can like sell to somebody.

1028
01:18:36,266 --> 01:18:38,585
Because we're talking about like AI is going to replace our jobs.

1029
01:18:38,965 --> 01:18:42,745
But it's not, you know, that was always the point that Marx had or somebody like that, right?

1030
01:18:42,785 --> 01:18:45,505
That we all become philosophers and we get rid of the need to work.

1031
01:18:45,505 --> 01:18:48,865
And so we can all sit either by and ask ourselves, who's the thinker?

1032
01:18:48,985 --> 01:18:49,945
Who am I?

1033
01:18:49,945 --> 01:19:09,665
Well, that was my thought with like, you know, like we'll with AI and autonomous driving, we'll have less demand for cars, but more demand for transportation. We'll have less demand for leak for for lawyers, but more demand for philosophy. Right. Like you can you could AI the whole legal system.

1034
01:19:09,665 --> 01:19:22,925
But you might have a greater demand for the philosophy that underlies it. And so maybe that is a potential avenue.

1035
01:19:22,925 --> 01:19:28,665
for meaning right because we're i think once we get past the idea of a job what we're really

1036
01:19:28,665 --> 01:19:34,745
mourning when we think about losing a job or a career once we have universal abundance is not

1037
01:19:34,745 --> 01:19:39,385
going to be like the ability to have things or buy things because we don't have a job it's going

1038
01:19:39,385 --> 01:19:46,445
to be the meaning that we associated with a career the development the ability to deploy skills to

1039
01:19:46,445 --> 01:19:51,825
help other people these types of things but once that's divorced from the economics of it

1040
01:19:51,825 --> 01:19:53,805
then what does that Memphis does?

1041
01:19:53,945 --> 01:19:55,085
I mean, but there are examples,

1042
01:19:55,485 --> 01:19:57,485
like we currently do have examples of,

1043
01:19:57,705 --> 01:20:01,245
like you don't have to have a job or a career

1044
01:20:01,245 --> 01:20:03,745
to have meaning or purpose.

1045
01:20:03,925 --> 01:20:05,726
You know, you can be, you know,

1046
01:20:05,905 --> 01:20:10,226
a husband or a wife or a mother or a caretaker,

1047
01:20:10,226 --> 01:20:14,525
or you can do something that is not economically,

1048
01:20:14,885 --> 01:20:16,766
like there are certainly examples of people

1049
01:20:16,766 --> 01:20:19,785
who live perfectly fulfilled lives,

1050
01:20:19,785 --> 01:20:25,825
probably much greater than a lot of us who have engaged in the job economy,

1051
01:20:26,045 --> 01:20:29,505
who are not economically productive.

1052
01:20:30,585 --> 01:20:32,325
I like to phrase the job economy.

1053
01:20:34,005 --> 01:20:36,525
I'm part of the economy, just not the job economy.

1054
01:20:37,985 --> 01:20:39,485
I don't have one of those parts.

1055
01:20:39,565 --> 01:20:41,365
Otherwise, I'm definitely a part of it.

1056
01:20:41,485 --> 01:20:42,345
Still spending it.

1057
01:20:42,825 --> 01:20:43,345
That's right.

1058
01:20:43,585 --> 01:20:45,266
This whole job thing, though, is a little overrated.

1059
01:20:45,685 --> 01:20:47,345
So we kind of jumped over.

1060
01:20:47,405 --> 01:20:48,145
This is my fault.

1061
01:20:48,145 --> 01:20:51,626
We jump to the happy ending, but let's go through the darkness.

1062
01:20:51,985 --> 01:20:52,285
How Chinese of you.

1063
01:20:52,545 --> 01:20:52,985
What's that?

1064
01:20:53,065 --> 01:20:53,685
The happy ending.

1065
01:20:54,145 --> 01:20:54,585
What's that?

1066
01:20:54,845 --> 01:20:55,565
The happy ending.

1067
01:20:55,805 --> 01:20:56,285
What about that?

1068
01:20:56,325 --> 01:20:57,485
They said, how Chinese of you.

1069
01:20:58,045 --> 01:20:58,685
I don't understand.

1070
01:20:58,985 --> 01:21:01,485
That's a reference to a rub and tug massage place.

1071
01:21:02,665 --> 01:21:05,005
I don't think their reference is going to be gone kind of wide.

1072
01:21:05,345 --> 01:21:06,885
Give them a very particular audience.

1073
01:21:07,105 --> 01:21:09,126
If Augie listens to this, he's definitely.

1074
01:21:09,185 --> 01:21:11,165
Okay, if you have one person in mind, fair enough.

1075
01:21:11,805 --> 01:21:17,545
But we skip to the happy ending of deflation as abundance and like finding meaning.

1076
01:21:17,545 --> 01:21:32,405
But there's some darkness here. So there's a whole chapter kind of on tribalism where we talked about the negative aspects of when we discussed our tribal future. There's an us versus them aspect of ourselves that could come out as part of this.

1077
01:21:32,405 --> 01:21:44,905
So part of this thesis that I haven't really discussed too much until now is the social consequences of what happens when deflation and inflation begin their really toxic kind of feedback loop.

1078
01:21:45,465 --> 01:21:49,685
Booth believes that we see a rise of populism with leaders blaming an outgroup.

1079
01:21:49,985 --> 01:21:52,445
This is partly due to kind of just human psychology.

1080
01:21:52,445 --> 01:21:54,505
We discuss that again in our tribal future.

1081
01:21:55,105 --> 01:22:01,285
And Booth states in kind of strictly logical fashion at one point that we have a need to form strong bonds and relationships.

1082
01:22:01,285 --> 01:22:06,305
we are then formed by the groups that we choose to belong to out of that necessity.

1083
01:22:06,766 --> 01:22:11,365
But belonging to one group by necessity means not belonging to another group.

1084
01:22:11,445 --> 01:22:16,045
So we've defined ourselves by the group that we adhere to and belong to out of human necessity,

1085
01:22:16,285 --> 01:22:19,205
and that again excludes us definitionally from other groups.

1086
01:22:19,505 --> 01:22:23,425
We also have certain biases that reinforce those in in-group bias,

1087
01:22:23,425 --> 01:22:28,065
that we tend to favor members of our own group, an out-group homogeneity bias,

1088
01:22:28,065 --> 01:22:37,726
We tend to think everybody in the out group is the same. Everybody in the in group is gloriously diverse and different and unique and possessed of human dignity.

1089
01:22:38,045 --> 01:22:47,965
We are also very susceptible to persuasion. Many ways in which this occurs are lots of research that has been done with brain scans, all of these things.

1090
01:22:47,965 --> 01:22:51,905
and people have PhDs in manipulation to try to sell us products.

1091
01:22:52,565 --> 01:22:56,766
Things like gamification, where you can make just very seductive,

1092
01:22:57,005 --> 01:22:59,605
very enticing the product of playing a video game

1093
01:22:59,605 --> 01:23:02,585
to where you feel like it's a meaningful thing that you're doing, right?

1094
01:23:02,605 --> 01:23:06,645
You can gamify nearly every process that we do

1095
01:23:06,645 --> 01:23:08,885
to make humans become invested in it.

1096
01:23:08,965 --> 01:23:10,525
And that's kind of a process of persuasion.

1097
01:23:12,085 --> 01:23:15,645
Our tribal mentality and susceptibility to persuasion

1098
01:23:15,645 --> 01:23:22,345
is not a good combo than when there is rising inequality due to this pairing of deflation

1099
01:23:22,345 --> 01:23:29,145
and inflation. At such a time, leaders will arise who exploit our susceptibilities to persuasion,

1100
01:23:29,585 --> 01:23:35,385
gamification, our biases, our in-group mentality, and turn us against the out-group in order to

1101
01:23:35,385 --> 01:23:40,925
gain power. And we'll be further divided because our previous rules for cooperation have been

1102
01:23:40,925 --> 01:23:46,665
corrupted. We did used to have at some point, maybe, if it's idyllic to say, but we had a type

1103
01:23:46,665 --> 01:23:50,925
of capitalism that was maybe pure, a perception that there was a free or fair market system,

1104
01:23:51,045 --> 01:23:56,245
which, as we talked about since 2008, that's been vigorously dispelled. We now have crony

1105
01:23:56,245 --> 01:24:03,365
capitalism. We now have a corrupted game theory system where you can't cooperate because defection

1106
01:24:03,365 --> 01:24:07,665
occurs through a centralized apparatus, right? Some people are rewarded for bad behaviors.

1107
01:24:08,345 --> 01:24:12,005
In any case, this book then is about a new paradigm of deflation.

1108
01:24:12,445 --> 01:24:16,766
We're going to get a new game to play together,

1109
01:24:17,165 --> 01:24:18,825
moving from scarcity to abundance.

1110
01:24:19,565 --> 01:24:23,105
We're going to have to figure out how to play that game with those new rules.

1111
01:24:23,785 --> 01:24:25,245
There are four ways we can do that.

1112
01:24:25,805 --> 01:24:27,626
He talked about Ray Dalio's framework.

1113
01:24:28,605 --> 01:24:30,266
One, we can enter austerity.

1114
01:24:30,266 --> 01:24:34,245
So when this deflation, prices are going down,

1115
01:24:34,245 --> 01:24:40,085
but we're still trying to fuel job growth and pay our debts by inflation.

1116
01:24:40,325 --> 01:24:41,845
There's this toxic relationship.

1117
01:24:42,425 --> 01:24:43,925
You can enter a stage of austerity.

1118
01:24:44,025 --> 01:24:45,045
You can try to spend less.

1119
01:24:45,545 --> 01:24:48,145
You can do debt faults and restructuring.

1120
01:24:48,505 --> 01:24:51,365
You can do central bank monetary printing,

1121
01:24:51,365 --> 01:24:55,465
or you can engage in transfers of wealth like taxes on the rich.

1122
01:24:56,065 --> 01:24:57,925
He says you can't really do lever one.

1123
01:24:58,005 --> 01:25:00,885
You can't pull that one to try to resolve this whole dilemma we're in

1124
01:25:00,885 --> 01:25:04,226
because austerity would create a vicious cycle

1125
01:25:04,226 --> 01:25:06,525
and collapse in asset prices and unemployment

1126
01:25:06,525 --> 01:25:09,025
because they're being propped up by the spending

1127
01:25:09,025 --> 01:25:11,285
that you reduce in periods of austerity, right?

1128
01:25:11,825 --> 01:25:13,645
And so this just leads us to Lever 2,

1129
01:25:13,766 --> 01:25:15,885
debt restructuring, debt default,

1130
01:25:16,465 --> 01:25:17,645
paying to its max, right?

1131
01:25:17,985 --> 01:25:21,485
Lever 3 is central bank money spending,

1132
01:25:21,865 --> 01:25:23,805
trying to kick the can down the road,

1133
01:25:23,885 --> 01:25:25,045
trying to keep the party going.

1134
01:25:26,605 --> 01:25:29,345
Lever 4 is transfer of wealth,

1135
01:25:29,345 --> 01:25:31,785
suppresses incentive to work, right?

1136
01:25:31,825 --> 01:25:33,825
The more that you rob from one person to give to another,

1137
01:25:33,985 --> 01:25:35,305
people are going to say, I'm out.

1138
01:25:35,465 --> 01:25:36,565
I'm not going to work anymore.

1139
01:25:37,885 --> 01:25:40,245
Leverage three and four, also, the money printing

1140
01:25:40,245 --> 01:25:43,385
and the transfers of wealth depend on centralized solutions.

1141
01:25:43,726 --> 01:25:45,025
That's the bailout, right?

1142
01:25:45,105 --> 01:25:46,805
That's the government controls who wins.

1143
01:25:47,565 --> 01:25:49,685
People with power will exploit that.

1144
01:25:51,405 --> 01:25:52,565
So what should we do then?

1145
01:25:52,985 --> 01:25:54,226
We have a rise of populist leader.

1146
01:25:54,226 --> 01:25:55,905
We have four bad options.

1147
01:25:56,145 --> 01:25:57,185
What's the way out of this game?

1148
01:25:57,185 --> 01:26:04,665
so i've been smiling because the way that you were able to break this down i know you haven't

1149
01:26:04,665 --> 01:26:10,025
read it but i keep badgering you're gonna fourth freaking you absolutely just like you did a very

1150
01:26:10,025 --> 01:26:15,665
good job of summarizing just for content i was actual fourth turning i was badgering lucas about

1151
01:26:15,665 --> 01:26:21,645
this i i dare you to listen to podcasts hear the words fourth turning and then have them

1152
01:26:21,645 --> 01:26:29,226
It will seem to explain in depth what that actually means other than just like a quick glib allusion to the fourth turning as if it's self-sufficient.

1153
01:26:29,445 --> 01:26:30,685
It's because everybody's read it.

1154
01:26:30,745 --> 01:26:32,226
They all know what it means except you.

1155
01:26:32,405 --> 01:26:33,726
That's how that's what I go through.

1156
01:26:33,885 --> 01:26:35,285
You're part of the out group.

1157
01:26:36,126 --> 01:26:40,545
I just think it's a thesis that floats around that people haven't adequately kind of engaged with.

1158
01:26:40,545 --> 01:26:42,465
The fourth turning is when everything falls apart.

1159
01:26:42,565 --> 01:26:43,825
You have the rise of populism.

1160
01:26:43,985 --> 01:26:45,805
They blame everybody but themselves.

1161
01:26:45,805 --> 01:26:52,585
And then there is potential of the great man who comes, arise and leads you to the promised land.

1162
01:26:52,705 --> 01:26:54,126
But it is the winter.

1163
01:26:54,766 --> 01:26:56,305
The first turning is the spring.

1164
01:26:56,445 --> 01:26:57,465
The second is the summer.

1165
01:26:57,665 --> 01:26:58,605
The third is the fall.

1166
01:26:58,705 --> 01:26:59,665
And the fourth is the winter.

1167
01:26:59,745 --> 01:27:00,705
And the winter is rough.

1168
01:27:00,885 --> 01:27:15,118
The winter is death And the winter is destruction Booth did it better than the fourth turning And if you have to add in the seasonal framework i like booth explanation better than the fourth turning you only saying this because you haven read it you can do that that unfair to the fourth

1169
01:27:15,118 --> 01:27:22,638
turning it's not it's this very cruel of you yeah i know yes um and so what should we do was your

1170
01:27:22,638 --> 01:27:27,338
question and and the answer is there just really is nothing you can do like none of those things

1171
01:27:27,338 --> 01:27:29,978
that Dalio actually, that Dalio lists,

1172
01:27:30,378 --> 01:27:32,358
none of those things actually work long-term.

1173
01:27:33,558 --> 01:27:35,218
There's, again, it's like-

1174
01:27:35,218 --> 01:27:36,618
I mean, that default, like number two-

1175
01:27:36,618 --> 01:27:37,718
It doesn't work long-term.

1176
01:27:38,378 --> 01:27:40,238
If you restart the game in a bad way,

1177
01:27:40,358 --> 01:27:40,978
then it doesn't work.

1178
01:27:40,998 --> 01:27:41,958
It doesn't work long-term

1179
01:27:41,958 --> 01:27:44,078
because then you just play the game again

1180
01:27:44,078 --> 01:27:45,178
and you default again

1181
01:27:45,178 --> 01:27:46,238
and you play the game again

1182
01:27:46,238 --> 01:27:47,058
and you default again.

1183
01:27:47,358 --> 01:27:49,498
This is why in my intro, I said,

1184
01:27:50,218 --> 01:27:52,198
you know, to think that you could

1185
01:27:52,198 --> 01:27:53,938
somehow get your way out of this

1186
01:27:53,938 --> 01:27:57,698
would be to watch 4,000 consecutive sunsets,

1187
01:27:57,798 --> 01:28:00,778
which would be to watch 4,000 government currencies die,

1188
01:28:01,498 --> 01:28:05,598
and then to sit there and look at the sun on this one particular day and go,

1189
01:28:05,718 --> 01:28:07,298
oh, it's just never going to go down.

1190
01:28:07,698 --> 01:28:11,858
Like it is absurd to think that there's anything you can do.

1191
01:28:12,438 --> 01:28:13,558
There's nothing you can do.

1192
01:28:13,558 --> 01:28:17,038
You can let the debt clear from the system.

1193
01:28:17,138 --> 01:28:18,418
That's what a debt default is, right?

1194
01:28:18,958 --> 01:28:21,518
Letting the debt clear from the system is austerity,

1195
01:28:21,618 --> 01:28:23,738
which is the complete collapse of the economy.

1196
01:28:23,938 --> 01:28:24,618
Yeah.

1197
01:28:25,178 --> 01:28:25,378
Yeah.

1198
01:28:25,498 --> 01:28:25,758
I mean,

1199
01:28:25,838 --> 01:28:28,638
it's a thing we can do and that's ultimately what Booth endorses.

1200
01:28:28,918 --> 01:28:29,138
Yeah.

1201
01:28:29,318 --> 01:28:30,798
But no one will ever do it.

1202
01:28:31,178 --> 01:28:32,418
It will happen by default.

1203
01:28:32,778 --> 01:28:32,998
Right.

1204
01:28:33,538 --> 01:28:34,698
One thing,

1205
01:28:34,858 --> 01:28:35,618
something has to happen.

1206
01:28:35,618 --> 01:28:35,918
Like,

1207
01:28:36,378 --> 01:28:37,158
so like,

1208
01:28:37,318 --> 01:28:37,618
I mean,

1209
01:28:38,038 --> 01:28:39,518
we're going to,

1210
01:28:40,058 --> 01:28:43,578
people are going to have forced austerity because they're going to be so

1211
01:28:43,578 --> 01:28:48,438
poor because the money is going to inflate so much that they can't.

1212
01:28:48,858 --> 01:28:53,558
And this is going to cause populism to be even worse because they're not

1213
01:28:53,558 --> 01:28:56,298
just going to be in it with everybody else.

1214
01:28:56,658 --> 01:28:59,298
It's going to be them, and they're going to be so poor

1215
01:28:59,298 --> 01:29:01,578
that they can't afford to buy a candy bar.

1216
01:29:02,618 --> 01:29:04,338
And then there's going to be the Bitcoiners,

1217
01:29:04,818 --> 01:29:06,918
and they're going to have a lot of capital,

1218
01:29:06,918 --> 01:29:07,958
and they're going to be fine.

1219
01:29:08,598 --> 01:29:12,178
And so this is going to further widen the divide

1220
01:29:12,178 --> 01:29:16,198
and cause even more populism.

1221
01:29:17,038 --> 01:29:20,138
And as always, there will always be more have-nots

1222
01:29:20,138 --> 01:29:20,978
than there are haves.

1223
01:29:21,498 --> 01:29:21,678
Yeah.

1224
01:29:21,918 --> 01:29:22,138
Right?

1225
01:29:22,138 --> 01:29:29,138
And so there would be more people that are angry and fewer people to defend themselves against it.

1226
01:29:29,218 --> 01:29:31,398
And just to spell out the role that Bitcoin might play.

1227
01:29:31,838 --> 01:29:40,358
So once we lose, just completely confidence collapses in centralized currency, right?

1228
01:29:40,418 --> 01:29:42,598
We see that the game has been rigged.

1229
01:29:42,978 --> 01:29:44,438
We don't want to play that game anymore.

1230
01:29:44,678 --> 01:29:46,118
The paper that we have is worthless.

1231
01:29:46,458 --> 01:29:50,518
Then Bitcoin presents itself as another form of solution, right?

1232
01:29:50,518 --> 01:29:53,178
It's decentralized, so no party can manipulate it.

1233
01:29:53,738 --> 01:29:55,938
Typically, monies follow the rules of supply and demands.

1234
01:29:56,038 --> 01:29:58,638
The governments can manipulate by printing more.

1235
01:29:58,778 --> 01:30:01,438
They can manipulate the increased supply, right?

1236
01:30:01,518 --> 01:30:04,118
With Bitcoin, you can't because it's a fixed supply.

1237
01:30:04,378 --> 01:30:06,218
It can't be manipulated by central governments.

1238
01:30:06,698 --> 01:30:09,738
It has a peer-to-peer ledger also with no central control.

1239
01:30:09,938 --> 01:30:12,678
The central control has been the problem in the money printing.

1240
01:30:12,878 --> 01:30:15,538
It's been the problem in the bailouts.

1241
01:30:15,538 --> 01:30:18,378
when you have an open distributed ledger,

1242
01:30:18,798 --> 01:30:20,878
people can have security and trust

1243
01:30:20,878 --> 01:30:25,038
by verifying transactions with consensus

1244
01:30:25,038 --> 01:30:26,498
instead of through the central authority.

1245
01:30:27,538 --> 01:30:29,458
And we all know, maybe not all,

1246
01:30:29,558 --> 01:30:33,518
but like the other virtues of Bitcoin,

1247
01:30:33,678 --> 01:30:35,478
moving across borders seamlessly,

1248
01:30:36,138 --> 01:30:37,558
it can be used as a payment system

1249
01:30:37,558 --> 01:30:38,878
when currencies fail.

1250
01:30:40,298 --> 01:30:43,338
It can also, we talked about networks and platforms,

1251
01:30:43,458 --> 01:30:45,478
the value in those, Bitcoin is a network.

1252
01:30:45,538 --> 01:30:51,538
It bootstraps, has bootstrapped from zero to something that's monetized.

1253
01:30:52,078 --> 01:30:58,338
There are places where the use case is absolutely immediately relevant today, like Venezuela.

1254
01:30:59,178 --> 01:31:03,098
And so this is Bitcoin as a potential solution.

1255
01:31:03,238 --> 01:31:04,718
And Booth, he's humble in this.

1256
01:31:04,778 --> 01:31:06,798
He says, Bitcoin is one possible solution.

1257
01:31:06,938 --> 01:31:10,098
I'm not going to sit here and say that I know this is going to be the thing we're going to do.

1258
01:31:10,538 --> 01:31:14,498
He makes the case, but says it's one way that this could come about.

1259
01:31:14,498 --> 01:31:21,058
We could have a collapse of the system or whatever you want to say and then a reset or whatever.

1260
01:31:21,238 --> 01:31:23,338
And then we, you know, use a decentralized currency, I guess.

1261
01:31:24,238 --> 01:31:35,878
One thing that Booth did that I've never seen anybody do was comment on the exponential growth of debt that is needed to continue growing the economy.

1262
01:31:35,878 --> 01:31:45,978
So he makes the comment that it took like $186 trillion worth of debt to generate like $46 trillion worth of growth or something like that.

1263
01:31:46,638 --> 01:31:52,258
And, you know, that was over a time period of like, I don't know, 10 years or something like that.

1264
01:31:52,258 --> 01:32:21,358
And so over the, you know, the next 10 years or whatever, it'll take likely because this, I mean, if you look back into the future, it continues to take more and more debt to create the same amount of growth because of the nature of that system of kicking the can down the road, of lowering the interest rates because you're, you're inherently less productive.

1265
01:32:21,358 --> 01:32:26,998
because you're taking assets that should not be in production and you're putting them into

1266
01:32:26,998 --> 01:32:34,518
production because the cost of doing so is so low. The natural interest rate should reflect

1267
01:32:34,518 --> 01:32:39,838
the natural rate of inflation. So the natural interest rate should be around 13%, but instead

1268
01:32:39,838 --> 01:32:46,718
it's say four. And so that means that you're just by participating in debt, literally by doing

1269
01:32:46,718 --> 01:32:53,618
nothing more than taking a loan against your house and taking that money and putting it into

1270
01:32:53,618 --> 01:32:59,758
stocks or whatever, you know, you're just by taking that money, you're already 9% ahead.

1271
01:33:00,238 --> 01:33:08,378
And because the real interest rate is, is lower. Um, but anyway, so the thing that he does that

1272
01:33:08,378 --> 01:33:16,598
I've never seen anybody else do that really hammers home just how fast this happens. And

1273
01:33:16,598 --> 01:33:24,778
To put in reference, he gives the example, you know, 1913, it took 4.2 Deutschmarks to equal $1.

1274
01:33:25,538 --> 01:33:42,318
By 1923, 10 years later, it took 4.2 trillion, which was orders of magnitude larger than the entire amount of the German economy had been in 1913.

1275
01:33:42,318 --> 01:34:08,558
So this is to say that in the span of a decade, you went from a dollar to buy a loaf of bread to a thousand times the entire gross domestic product of the country to buy the same loaf of bread in terms of nominal, in terms of nominal.

1276
01:34:08,558 --> 01:34:30,258
And so, again, this is where I continue to go back to this. This is why I get, I think, so passionate about trying to continue to hammer at different vectors in the hopes that people will understand something about this.

1277
01:34:30,258 --> 01:34:34,038
because the difference between then and now

1278
01:34:34,038 --> 01:34:38,998
is that then there was no immediate off-ramp

1279
01:34:38,998 --> 01:34:40,718
where people could, over the weekend,

1280
01:34:41,118 --> 01:34:43,218
seeing their currency lose value,

1281
01:34:43,798 --> 01:34:47,518
immediately dump it all for Bitcoin,

1282
01:34:48,158 --> 01:34:51,758
which, by the way, would have accelerated that

1283
01:34:51,758 --> 01:34:57,798
instead of going from 4.2 to 4.2 trillion in a decade,

1284
01:34:57,798 --> 01:34:59,978
it probably would have taken, who knows,

1285
01:35:00,258 --> 01:35:03,238
Three years, five years, one year.

1286
01:35:04,918 --> 01:35:16,778
And so that is to say that what we have are historical examples of how this happens so fast that it catches the entirety of the country off guard.

1287
01:35:17,438 --> 01:35:20,518
And that's when there was no alternative.

1288
01:35:20,518 --> 01:35:22,318
And now there is an alternative.

1289
01:35:22,318 --> 01:35:30,618
And so the presumption should be that it happens much faster, exponentially faster.

1290
01:35:30,618 --> 01:35:43,418
Yeah. So, yeah, just just I I really appreciated that he put that framing in there because everybody's always commenting on the actual amount of the debt.

1291
01:35:43,418 --> 01:36:04,418
But nobody I had ever seen took the framework or the approach of this is how much debt it took to create this much growth in this time frame, which means that in the next time frame, in the next epoch, it will take exponentially more debt to create the same amount of growth.

1292
01:36:04,418 --> 01:36:09,098
Yeah, that was really good for me. I kind of left that out in the summaries, but that was really interesting.

1293
01:36:09,098 --> 01:36:12,258
that, yeah, debt fuels growth

1294
01:36:12,258 --> 01:36:15,478
and it takes exponentially more debt

1295
01:36:15,478 --> 01:36:17,258
to fuel the same amount of growth.

1296
01:36:17,398 --> 01:36:18,638
And growth is not like people,

1297
01:36:18,958 --> 01:36:21,258
this is the, we think about growth as good.

1298
01:36:21,338 --> 01:36:23,338
Like we think about, oh, my bank account is growing.

1299
01:36:23,518 --> 01:36:24,558
Oh, my baby is growing.

1300
01:36:24,638 --> 01:36:25,498
My dog is growing.

1301
01:36:25,678 --> 01:36:26,458
I'm getting taller.

1302
01:36:26,618 --> 01:36:27,618
I'm getting more muscular.

1303
01:36:27,778 --> 01:36:28,278
That's growth.

1304
01:36:28,398 --> 01:36:30,198
But that's not, this is not growth.

1305
01:36:30,338 --> 01:36:34,858
Growth is not what you should desire in a business.

1306
01:36:34,998 --> 01:36:36,518
What you should desire is innovation.

1307
01:36:37,158 --> 01:36:37,918
Tumor is growing.

1308
01:36:38,038 --> 01:36:38,758
The belly is growing.

1309
01:36:38,758 --> 01:36:40,798
Yeah, exactly. It's bloat, right?

1310
01:36:40,858 --> 01:36:41,018
Yeah.

1311
01:36:41,418 --> 01:36:56,498
You know, and this is the problem with public companies because public companies become beholden to stockholders that need quarterly updates.

1312
01:36:56,618 --> 01:37:04,458
And so they want monthly and quarterly reports of, oh, we're growing at this rate, we're growing at this rate, and they want that to be consistent.

1313
01:37:04,458 --> 01:37:32,778
And so when you're in charge of that company, you have a choice. And the choice is, do I invest in growth, which is linear? I can add another wing to the building, I can fill it with more salesmen, and I can use economies of scale in order to gain an extra 12%. And that's fairly easy to pencil in. I'm fairly certain that I can do that.

1314
01:37:32,778 --> 01:37:42,698
um okay we can do that or do i use that same investment to take it over here and say we're

1315
01:37:42,698 --> 01:37:49,378
going to try to find a better way to do things yeah and we don't know what that better way is

1316
01:37:49,378 --> 01:37:55,118
and we can't put a timeline on it and we can't tell you if it'll work but we can tell you that

1317
01:37:55,118 --> 01:38:01,518
If it works, it's going to be that creative destruction.

1318
01:38:01,518 --> 01:38:03,118
That it's going to be.

1319
01:38:03,258 --> 01:38:10,478
That's why, you know, companies never, companies fail because they're unwilling to kill their own golden goose.

1320
01:38:10,598 --> 01:38:17,278
Like the thing that got them there is not the thing that will get them through the next epoch of creative destruction.

1321
01:38:17,658 --> 01:38:19,878
But because of that sunk cost fallacy.

1322
01:38:20,058 --> 01:38:21,778
Concrete example, Kodak, right?

1323
01:38:21,778 --> 01:38:35,598
So Kodak, they double down on film even as the digital camera begins its rise, even though a Kodak employee invented the digital camera, tries to convince them internally that, hey, this is the future.

1324
01:38:35,778 --> 01:38:37,998
But again, doubling down on the old way.

1325
01:38:38,198 --> 01:38:39,638
And there's just countless examples.

1326
01:38:39,678 --> 01:38:40,638
And they had 20 years.

1327
01:38:40,798 --> 01:38:42,558
Like he invented in the 70s.

1328
01:38:42,638 --> 01:38:42,898
Right.

1329
01:38:43,158 --> 01:38:45,938
And they reached their height in 96.

1330
01:38:45,938 --> 01:38:53,378
and you know it just yeah you just it's plainly obvious to the people that know what to look for

1331
01:38:53,378 --> 01:38:58,818
or in hindsight it's always plain yeah painfully i guess you know i i think that's why there are

1332
01:38:58,818 --> 01:39:03,938
people that seem like savants and gods and it's just because they know what to look for

1333
01:39:03,938 --> 01:39:11,818
yeah um jeff moose is one of those um you know so he he's done he's done very well at that that's

1334
01:39:11,818 --> 01:39:36,478
This is why his move to Noster is one of the things that got me so excited because he talks, he even talks in the book about how understanding kind of what Twitter was allowed him to leverage his small stature simply by being early.

1335
01:39:36,478 --> 01:39:40,218
that allowed him to grow a very large stature.

1336
01:39:40,438 --> 01:39:41,498
I think, I can't remember how many.

1337
01:39:41,578 --> 01:39:43,998
He had a lot of followers on Twitter.

1338
01:39:44,258 --> 01:39:47,158
And he left Twitter to go to Noster.

1339
01:39:47,338 --> 01:39:49,238
So he basically, he makes the general point

1340
01:39:49,238 --> 01:39:50,978
that the first people to a platform,

1341
01:39:51,138 --> 01:39:52,658
kind of a first mover advantage.

1342
01:39:53,058 --> 01:39:55,338
And what happened in his case is evidently

1343
01:39:55,338 --> 01:39:58,938
he wrote an essay from the point of view of a CEO

1344
01:39:58,938 --> 01:40:02,818
on LinkedIn about like the necessity of being on Twitter.

1345
01:40:03,138 --> 01:40:05,978
It just leads to like many CEOs to go on Twitter

1346
01:40:05,978 --> 01:40:11,298
And then also it leads Twitter to put Jeff as like one of the recommended follows on Twitter.

1347
01:40:11,878 --> 01:40:14,298
So, yeah, I want to tie together.

1348
01:40:14,418 --> 01:40:15,898
This is the last thing in the book.

1349
01:40:15,958 --> 01:40:17,558
We kind of jumped to this.

1350
01:40:17,638 --> 01:40:19,918
Again, I said this is the potentially happy ending.

1351
01:40:21,218 --> 01:40:25,538
What Jeff kind of foresees is like the best case scenario, we might say.

1352
01:40:25,958 --> 01:40:28,038
The simple solution, we have those four levers.

1353
01:40:28,158 --> 01:40:32,398
The simple solution, we allow ourselves first to accept tech abundance.

1354
01:40:32,938 --> 01:40:37,098
It's hard to imagine because of the centrality of careers to our lives.

1355
01:40:37,278 --> 01:40:40,878
The careers define us, get relationships from our jobs, we get social status.

1356
01:40:40,998 --> 01:40:42,478
We didn't talk about that from our jobs.

1357
01:40:43,518 --> 01:40:45,538
Here's the quote that I really liked, a couple of quotes.

1358
01:40:45,538 --> 01:40:51,698
The fear, this is from the book here, the fear of a future without those jobs and self-worth

1359
01:40:51,698 --> 01:40:57,418
that they bring stops us from imagining a world in which they might not even be required.

1360
01:40:57,958 --> 01:40:59,018
Consider this alternative.

1361
01:40:59,618 --> 01:41:11,078
Allowing abundance without the jobs might actually open an entirely new enlightenment era where we have time to enjoy the benefits that technology brings.

1362
01:41:11,758 --> 01:41:16,038
So accepting tech abundance requires a stop to inflation.

1363
01:41:16,038 --> 01:41:23,338
This means either a switch away from our fiat currencies or their collapse and eventually the adoption of a type of money that can't be manipulated.

1364
01:41:23,498 --> 01:41:27,018
And again, we talked about Bitcoin might be that type of solution.

1365
01:41:27,018 --> 01:41:48,578
You know, it's so it's interesting, like how utopic this is. And it's, you know, the end move. This is a world without jobs, a world where like the potential of every human is potentially realized because people aren't stuck in a cubicle.

1366
01:41:48,578 --> 01:41:55,858
People aren't wasting themselves away being fried by the fluorescent buzz of the computers and lights above them.

1367
01:41:55,998 --> 01:42:03,718
They're out with friends and family and rich communities doing things that really are what it is to be human.

1368
01:42:04,478 --> 01:42:10,258
And so it's just like this is a beautiful ending to a book that's about like deflation and tech and stuff.

1369
01:42:10,378 --> 01:42:12,138
This is about what it is to be human.

1370
01:42:13,078 --> 01:42:17,138
Yeah, the job, I think, is just a...

1371
01:42:17,138 --> 01:42:19,478
I think we'll still have jobs.

1372
01:42:19,558 --> 01:42:21,898
I don't think they'll be called jobs, but I think...

1373
01:42:21,898 --> 01:42:22,718
Right, define job.

1374
01:42:22,798 --> 01:42:24,138
What do you mean by just telling a job?

1375
01:42:24,138 --> 01:42:27,438
Right, I think job is the abstraction.

1376
01:42:27,438 --> 01:42:28,178
A thing to do.

1377
01:42:28,758 --> 01:42:32,138
Yeah, I think job is the abstraction of what...

1378
01:42:33,958 --> 01:42:39,138
It's the bastardized version of what we have become...

1379
01:42:42,138 --> 01:42:46,838
abused into accepting as a reasonable facsimile of purpose.

1380
01:42:49,218 --> 01:42:56,918
Like, the idea, like, you hear people talk about their jobs as though it gives them great joy

1381
01:42:56,918 --> 01:43:06,578
being an accountant or an insurance adjuster or working for the postal office or, you know,

1382
01:43:06,578 --> 01:43:17,338
what is that actual job by and large it is difficult games of like it's it's complex

1383
01:43:17,338 --> 01:43:25,498
paperwork it's just filling out you know yeah this weird form of of a uh of a crossword puzzle

1384
01:43:25,498 --> 01:43:31,538
kind of kind of but the the thing that gives them they do i'm not saying that they don't have

1385
01:43:31,538 --> 01:43:36,498
purpose what i'm saying is it's not the job that's giving them the purpose it's the interaction with

1386
01:43:36,498 --> 01:43:42,338
their fellow human beings and do something for them being needed and contributing and so you know

1387
01:43:42,338 --> 01:43:46,978
i think that we'll still i think i think what we'll see is a

1388
01:43:46,978 --> 01:43:56,758
is a renaissance of purpose and a renaissance of meaning even though we may not have the job

1389
01:43:56,758 --> 01:44:08,018
that previously purported to live in the stead of where meaning and purpose are meant to be.

1390
01:44:08,018 --> 01:44:16,118
Yeah. What about social status, though? Status is a very real part of our evolved cognitive

1391
01:44:16,118 --> 01:44:23,678
architecture. It's how we compete for mates. It's how we, you know, like, as we evolved as

1392
01:44:23,678 --> 01:44:30,258
a social species because status was a way to like mediate our access to resources and reproductive

1393
01:44:30,258 --> 01:44:35,918
access or whatever i mean like i that seems how are we going to stand out how are we going to

1394
01:44:35,918 --> 01:44:42,418
prove ourselves to others if we don't have an established um well as you said established game

1395
01:44:42,418 --> 01:44:47,678
maybe unless we get back to games as ritualized ways of doing that like literally a soccer game

1396
01:44:47,678 --> 01:44:55,718
a football game you know literally games of like manual displays of value like playing the guitar

1397
01:44:55,718 --> 01:45:01,338
or whatever you know what immediately came to me i mean that could be what came to mind to me was

1398
01:45:01,338 --> 01:45:08,238
like being at the network school that was you know like nobody has to do anything there like

1399
01:45:08,238 --> 01:45:12,498
you don't have to cook your meals you don't have to do your laundry you don't clean your room

1400
01:45:12,498 --> 01:45:20,898
you don't take care like there's no jobs and so but we did have there was status within that

1401
01:45:20,898 --> 01:45:30,718
community and i i felt like i felt like i achieved a fairly high status because and owing solely to

1402
01:45:30,718 --> 01:45:39,878
that i was just like always willing to help i was just like i would i you know i i just gave of what

1403
01:45:39,878 --> 01:45:48,918
I knew I, you know, hang your picture up or help put your bike together or teach you how to swing

1404
01:45:48,918 --> 01:45:55,418
a hammer or, you know, these things. And that gave, at least for me, that's how I got status.

1405
01:45:55,418 --> 01:46:20,018
And so in a post-job economy or a post-job society, post-economy society, then maybe status just comes from what you contribute to other people directly individually.

1406
01:46:20,058 --> 01:46:20,498
I don't know.

1407
01:46:21,078 --> 01:46:21,718
Yeah, I don't know.

1408
01:46:21,778 --> 01:46:22,238
What do you think?

1409
01:46:23,518 --> 01:46:24,378
Do you think it's games?

1410
01:46:24,378 --> 01:46:27,218
Do you think it's kickball and soccer?

1411
01:46:28,858 --> 01:46:29,578
Yeah.

1412
01:46:30,078 --> 01:46:32,758
And I began saying status is necessary.

1413
01:46:32,918 --> 01:46:39,118
It's an evolved part of our, you know, our like hedonic structure, our value structure.

1414
01:46:39,278 --> 01:46:41,038
It's motivational and all these things.

1415
01:46:41,418 --> 01:46:48,278
There are other aspects of our interiority that are drives and impulses that are motivational.

1416
01:46:48,278 --> 01:46:53,838
and part of those are fulfilling roles in relation to one another,

1417
01:46:53,838 --> 01:46:58,118
being a good father, a good son, a good friend.

1418
01:46:59,518 --> 01:47:02,578
And maybe there's some status derived from those things.

1419
01:47:04,838 --> 01:47:08,018
Attention will always be a finite thing.

1420
01:47:08,118 --> 01:47:11,478
We will always be able to devote our attention to somebody

1421
01:47:11,478 --> 01:47:14,518
and show them that we care about them for that reason

1422
01:47:14,518 --> 01:47:16,778
and gain some status with respect to that person.

1423
01:47:16,778 --> 01:47:21,258
And maybe this will be good if we can collapse status economies.

1424
01:47:21,558 --> 01:47:25,198
Right now, people develop parasocial relationships with celebrities.

1425
01:47:25,698 --> 01:47:30,858
And like we have this really bizarre status economy where you win status for millions of

1426
01:47:30,858 --> 01:47:31,858
people you'll never meet.

1427
01:47:32,258 --> 01:47:33,518
And that's what people try to do.

1428
01:47:33,518 --> 01:47:39,578
Like they create some bizarre Bitcoin study session podcast because they want status beyond

1429
01:47:39,578 --> 01:47:45,238
the people that should really matter to them, which people in their actual, the people that

1430
01:47:45,238 --> 01:47:46,198
will help them if they're.

1431
01:47:46,778 --> 01:47:51,758
tire blows up or if they're feeling sad we made a better example well if they're feeling sad someone

1432
01:47:51,758 --> 01:47:57,778
to pat them on the back right the ai is not going to be able to perfectly do that and so yeah i guess

1433
01:47:57,778 --> 01:48:04,618
that's what i feel that maybe it'll be good that status will not be an economic idea of scale but

1434
01:48:04,618 --> 01:48:11,858
will be reduced again to these very particular relations i mean status is is status only useful

1435
01:48:11,858 --> 01:48:12,838
because of scarcity?

1436
01:48:17,618 --> 01:48:21,918
Would that be status in order to ensure we have enough scarce resources to survive?

1437
01:48:21,998 --> 01:48:27,918
Well, like the purpose of status is to determine who gets access to scarce resources.

1438
01:48:28,058 --> 01:48:30,538
There will always be, be it mates or be it whatever.

1439
01:48:30,778 --> 01:48:32,438
The mates is the one that's still going to be scarce.

1440
01:48:32,798 --> 01:48:36,418
AI can create like the sex bot or something, but that's not what people want

1441
01:48:36,418 --> 01:48:37,938
and not what they will compete for.

1442
01:48:37,938 --> 01:48:41,678
They may resign themselves to that if they can't get a mate,

1443
01:48:41,678 --> 01:48:45,398
but people will still want a real, to know that they're interacting.

1444
01:48:45,658 --> 01:48:47,358
Some people, I mean, some people maybe want one.

1445
01:48:47,478 --> 01:48:55,418
I mean, if you're living in a button, like we talked about this with like Sal and the talk with Kobe.

1446
01:48:56,958 --> 01:48:58,558
About Kobe, not Kobe.

1447
01:48:59,478 --> 01:49:00,738
Not the basketball player.

1448
01:49:02,058 --> 01:49:03,898
But the, you know, like his...

1449
01:49:03,898 --> 01:49:06,158
I was sat with Kobe and Saylor, we were talking.

1450
01:49:06,938 --> 01:49:11,658
His observation that, you know, like their true self.

1451
01:49:11,678 --> 01:49:18,278
was able to show. And so that was a result of abundance that came to them because he was able

1452
01:49:18,278 --> 01:49:25,978
to provide it. So if we extrapolate that over the entirety of, of everyone, then maybe it is that

1453
01:49:25,978 --> 01:49:32,838
there, maybe it is that everyone is just that, is just more attractive. Yes, there's always going to

1454
01:49:32,838 --> 01:49:38,458
be small differences in people, but right now, a lot of the differences that are in people is like,

1455
01:49:38,458 --> 01:49:44,198
you're you're not physically attractive because you don't have access to food and you don't like

1456
01:49:44,198 --> 01:49:49,258
good healthy food and you don't have access to uh gym equipment you don't have access to

1457
01:49:49,258 --> 01:49:55,898
role models and you don't have those people are horrible by the way i've i've been seeing

1458
01:49:55,898 --> 01:50:02,638
i've been seeing pictures of before and after and yeah just hides before it's just like

1459
01:50:02,638 --> 01:50:07,438
bone, like, sagging, skin sagging.

1460
01:50:07,738 --> 01:50:09,158
It doesn't look good.

1461
01:50:09,318 --> 01:50:10,638
Because it destroys muscle mass.

1462
01:50:10,998 --> 01:50:11,298
Does it?

1463
01:50:11,298 --> 01:50:11,978
A zympic, yeah.

1464
01:50:12,218 --> 01:50:12,698
Yeah.

1465
01:50:13,238 --> 01:50:15,438
And so that's, like, the trade-off that you make.

1466
01:50:15,658 --> 01:50:18,558
That will be counteracted by another thing or drug.

1467
01:50:18,998 --> 01:50:23,958
You shoot them up with DPC-157, which highly metastasizes cancer cells.

1468
01:50:24,178 --> 01:50:24,918
So, yeah, that'll be good.

1469
01:50:25,018 --> 01:50:28,498
You get skinny and weak, and then you get strong, and then you get cancer.

1470
01:50:29,138 --> 01:50:30,158
Yeah, I will say this.

1471
01:50:30,158 --> 01:50:52,718
But anyways, what I'm trying to say here is that in an age of abundance, the things that currently create the need for us to compete, even for mates, a lot of that I think would be leveled out if we grow up in abundance with access to perfect health care and, you know, great food and all that stuff.

1472
01:50:52,718 --> 01:51:16,718
Like, you know, like the comment has been made, like basically anyone who is 10% body fat is attractive. Like it's pretty hard to not be attractive and be in shape. Right. And so that's like a huge part of it. Like, let's not like, let's not ignore the fact that, you know, 60% of America, I think is diabetic or pre-diabetic.

1473
01:51:16,718 --> 01:51:23,498
diabetic and, you know, the average woman in America has gained, I think, 60 pounds since

1474
01:51:23,498 --> 01:51:31,578
a hundred years ago, went from like 110 pounds to like 170. Um, and it's about the same for men.

1475
01:51:31,578 --> 01:51:42,898
Um, and so like, I, you know, maybe there is just less need for competition because we are more,

1476
01:51:42,898 --> 01:51:49,118
I don't know, because there is less difference between us.

1477
01:51:49,598 --> 01:51:59,538
One thing that I wanted to just kind of riff on was in Jonathan Haidt's book, he talks about the difference between needs of males and females.

1478
01:51:59,738 --> 01:52:09,338
We both need both of these things, but males skew more towards agency, which is the side-by-side companionship and shoulder-to-shoulder.

1479
01:52:09,338 --> 01:52:12,818
and females skew more towards communion.

1480
01:52:13,758 --> 01:52:14,258
Disclosure-based.

1481
01:52:14,498 --> 01:52:15,738
Disclosure-based, yeah.

1482
01:52:18,038 --> 01:52:21,538
And so, why was I bringing that up?

1483
01:52:21,798 --> 01:52:28,718
Oh, was that these are both avenues by which we pursue social status,

1484
01:52:29,218 --> 01:52:32,998
that men pursue social status as an athlete

1485
01:52:32,998 --> 01:52:36,198
and women pursue social status through popularity.

1486
01:52:36,198 --> 01:52:43,838
Like these are kind of the things in, say, junior high when these are most prevalent and most pervasive, I guess.

1487
01:52:44,798 --> 01:52:45,238
So I don't know.

1488
01:52:45,438 --> 01:52:56,518
The more egalitarian that things become, assuming they will, assuming that like there are overlords who control the AI and in some way can squander the abundance for themselves or something like that.

1489
01:52:57,598 --> 01:52:59,098
More egalitarianism.

1490
01:52:59,558 --> 01:53:02,498
There is like the tyranny of small differences.

1491
01:53:02,498 --> 01:53:08,998
is I wish there's some sort of study or famous anecdote of like a religious order and they're

1492
01:53:08,998 --> 01:53:12,878
all they all have to wear the same thing they all have to eat the same meals they all live in very

1493
01:53:12,878 --> 01:53:17,978
humble quarters and then one of them gets like a small favor over everybody else yeah and the

1494
01:53:17,978 --> 01:53:23,638
enmity there is this is like school uniforms yeah that type of thing so like egalitarianism will

1495
01:53:23,638 --> 01:53:29,098
always any sort of way to discriminate a difference between somebody is going to be used as a point

1496
01:53:29,098 --> 01:53:34,838
an advantage or disadvantage. It's just like human nature, I believe. But I don't know. This is where

1497
01:53:34,838 --> 01:53:41,238
we're headed. These are perennial questions, sorting out one's status as such, one's personal

1498
01:53:41,238 --> 01:53:45,778
relationship to status, meaning as such, one's relationship to meaning. These are going to become

1499
01:53:45,778 --> 01:53:51,878
more and more vital and relevant as the jobs crumble, the inefficiencies are remedied by

1500
01:53:51,878 --> 01:53:58,078
something that is not us. So I was just having these questions, having a talk like this today

1501
01:53:58,078 --> 01:53:59,818
with the person who cut my hair.

1502
01:53:59,978 --> 01:54:03,318
These are conversations we are having in the street.

1503
01:54:03,478 --> 01:54:06,258
Anybody who has used AI in the workplace

1504
01:54:06,258 --> 01:54:09,558
has a premonition of where it's going.

1505
01:54:09,738 --> 01:54:12,098
You don't have to, like, Booth's argument is great,

1506
01:54:12,198 --> 01:54:13,538
but you almost don't even need to read it.

1507
01:54:13,578 --> 01:54:15,178
You can see where this thing is going.

1508
01:54:15,758 --> 01:54:17,598
And so these conversations are happening now

1509
01:54:17,598 --> 01:54:19,398
and people should fortify themselves.

1510
01:54:19,678 --> 01:54:21,378
People should find secure sources of meaning.

1511
01:54:21,638 --> 01:54:23,118
People really should consider these things.

1512
01:54:23,118 --> 01:54:28,338
Booth's book is a great way and a broad framework to do that.

1513
01:54:29,138 --> 01:54:32,698
The ending, he doesn't, you know, dilate on the thesis too much.

1514
01:54:32,738 --> 01:54:38,038
It is at the end where he says, you settle in, relax into abundance, accept it.

1515
01:54:39,058 --> 01:54:42,498
But yeah, we're going to work this thesis out in real time shortly.

1516
01:54:43,178 --> 01:54:43,278
Yep.

1517
01:54:44,878 --> 01:54:45,838
Frank Outlaw.

1518
01:54:47,858 --> 01:54:51,018
Jeff Booth puts this quote on page 165.

1519
01:54:51,018 --> 01:54:57,498
He says it's his longtime favorite quote by Frank Outlaw in 1977.

1520
01:54:58,378 --> 01:55:02,798
And it's a reminder that most of our time is spent within our own heads.

1521
01:55:03,238 --> 01:55:08,738
So it makes sense that how we interpret our thoughts leads to many of the other things that we experience.

1522
01:55:10,398 --> 01:55:14,138
Outlaw says, watch your thoughts, they become words.

1523
01:55:15,118 --> 01:55:17,358
Watch your words, they become actions.

1524
01:55:17,358 --> 01:55:25,438
watch your actions they become habits watch your habits they become character

1525
01:55:25,438 --> 01:55:29,858
watch your character for it becomes your destiny

1526
01:55:29,858 --> 01:55:36,538
so the last thing i'll say is that you live in the world that you create in your own mind

1527
01:55:36,538 --> 01:55:41,418
and so you can live in a world of abundance you can live in a world of scarcity

1528
01:55:41,418 --> 01:55:44,038
regardless of what's going on around you.

1529
01:55:44,918 --> 01:55:47,878
But there is a great potential

1530
01:55:47,878 --> 01:55:51,418
that we will all experience a world of abundance

1531
01:55:51,418 --> 01:55:52,798
in reality as well.

1532
01:55:53,458 --> 01:55:54,498
So, all right on.

1533
01:55:54,758 --> 01:55:55,238
That's it, man.

1534
01:55:55,358 --> 01:55:56,758
Thank you for this conversation.

1535
01:55:56,998 --> 01:55:58,478
Thank you, Mr. Booth, for this lovely book.

1536
01:55:58,558 --> 01:55:59,758
And thanks for having us listened.

1537
01:55:59,898 --> 01:56:02,918
I hope, yeah, you've got something from this

1538
01:56:02,918 --> 01:56:04,938
and, you know, contribute back.

1539
01:56:05,018 --> 01:56:06,158
Let us know what you thought of the book.

1540
01:56:06,518 --> 01:56:06,758
Yeah.

1541
01:56:07,678 --> 01:56:08,118
Konnichiwa.