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First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.

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Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic,

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and just like we do with magicians, we typically ignore them.

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But at some point, the absurdity of the new thing falls away

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as the absurdity of doing it the old way becomes obvious by comparison.

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If I had a choice, why would I use money whose buying power, at best, is cut in half every 10 years?

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Why would I use money which can be taken from me if my political ideals do not align with those in power?

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Why would I use money whose availability is determined by the whims of a dozen non-elected officials

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making decisions based on metrics they adjust to fit the narrative they want to disseminate?

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At a certain point, these questions stop becoming academic and start to become a matter of survival.

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And it becomes clear that the survival of the old system is at odds with the survival of your right to dream,

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to own a home, feed your family, to pursue your God-given talents.

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It is unclear which stage we are currently at with Bitcoin,

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likely because it differs depending on who you ask and where you are.

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One thing is clear though, those who benefit most from the old system will do the most to

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maintain control and will become more and more desperate as the outcome becomes more and more

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obvious. There is a war being waged across the globe. It is a battle for attention and assault

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on liberty. The weapons are algorithmic, the payload is propaganda. And the only way to win

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is not to fight, to exit the battleground and move to a higher domain, to take the cumulative

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value of your life's work and escape to a place of peace. In that regard, today we discuss chapter

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eight of Natalie Smolenski's The Satoshi Papers. This article is by Ovik Roy, and the title is

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Then They Fight You. Grant, tell me what you learned. We're going to learn together here. So

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thank you for that introduction, Lucas, to set the stakes. We have the stakes out there. We kind

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of know what they are. If you live in the United States today, if you live among mounting national

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debt as we have for so many years. You know the stakes, but Then They Fight You. That's the title

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of today's essay. We're going to get a summary out so that we all have the facts and arguments

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on the table so we can discuss them from a place of knowledge rather than just kind of speculation.

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This essay by Ovik Roy is a meditation on that phrase, Then They Fight You. Ovik is the founder

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and president of the Foundation for Research on Equal Opportunity, director of the Texas

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Bitcoin Foundation.

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And then I could keep reading one of those people whose kind of, you know, backstory looks

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like just an incredible set of accomplishments and current story to follow him on Twitter

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A-V-I-K, I believe it is at A-V-I-K.

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Then they fight you.

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So Lucas read that whole phrase, first ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight

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you, then you win.

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And Ovik knows that that's from Mahatma Gandhi, kind of disputed, but that's where it's the

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provenance of that phrase that we hear so often in the Bitcoin realm.

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This essay unpacks that, didn't they fight you?

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There are three potential ways Ovik thinks that the U.S. government will respond to monetary

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collapse.

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So in this essay, he first kind of lays out where we're at, where we're going.

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And then once we get there in 2044, which is kind of the tipping point in this framework,

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what the U.S. government does to respond.

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three ways. A restrictive scenario where the U.S. attempts to aggressively curtail economic

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liberties. A palsied scenario where there's kind of partisan paralysis that prevents the U.S.

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government from doing anything, either pro or con, either to kind of damn the destruction and flood

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of the U.S. kind of monetary currency, the value of the dollar. And the final one, the munificent

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scenario, which is where if you are in the United States and a citizen or a citizen of the world,

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you have to hope that we're moving towards where the U.S. assimilates Bitcoin into its monetary

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system and returns to a sound fiscal policy. So those are the three scenarios we're going to look

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at. In this essay, as I mentioned first, Ovik starts off giving what is going to lead up to

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one of these three scenarios, which is kind of the coming fiscal and monetary crisis.

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We're in 2025 now.

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The author notes in 2024 the interest on the federal debt exceeded for the first time spending on national defense.

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He has a bunch of other indications, projections, which you're very likely familiar with if you kind of follow the decline of the dollar in our present age.

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For example, the CBO Congressional Budget Office optimistically predicts that debt will be 139% of GDP in 2044, I believe.

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Currently, it's 99%.

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With more realistic predictions, though, Ovik thinks we're going to get to 288%.

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So we're going to imagine then that Bitcoin rises as it has as this economic crisis continues to rise as well.

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So the rise of Bitcoin is going to be concomitant with kind of the collapse of the dollar.

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That's the direction we've been heading if you look at trends.

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And if you follow those trends out, that's the direction we're going.

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Ovid then estimates that Bitcoin at the tipping point in 2044 hits 1.5 million per coin.

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and by 2044 as well, most people have grown up with Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin has matured.

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People are familiar with it.

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It's just like any other reserve asset.

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Meanwhile, you've had the depreciation value of the dollar.

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Maybe we have extreme fiscal austerity attempts to cut entitlements and welfare.

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The Fed raising interest rates to increase demand.

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And then if they raise above 30%, OVIC says, causing the markets to crash.

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so these are kind of all the indicators again it doesn't matter which specific indicator you look

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at the the important part for this essay and for i think everybody considering the future of the

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united states and generally the world under its current monetary regime is the way we're going

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is not sustainable and what happens when we get to the point that that becomes manifestly obvious

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three one of three scenarios as kind of a u.s government response ovic thinks as i mentioned

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at the beginning. The first one was the restrictive scenario. That is financial repression,

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the government forcing people to hold on to a weak currency. Very common throughout history.

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You look at this in broken money, Len Alden went into that. Just how common it is cannot

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be understated. Price controls, capital controls, confiscatory taxation, those are the norm

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when the currency begins to decline, not some aberration.

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Price controls.

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Ovik notes that the Roman emperor Diocletian imposed caps on goods,

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and then he blamed the unprincipled and licentious person

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who thinks greed is a certain sort of obligation

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and ripping off the fortunes of all as kind of a reason to put caps

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on the price of goods and services.

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Nixon also put a cap on wages, or rather he froze wages and prices for 90 days,

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And he, just like Diocletian, blamed, in his case, money speculators, throwing the blame off anything other than the debased currency and the inflating, in Nixon's case, dollar when you try to go off the gold standard.

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So price controls, capital controls, that's when the government attempts to prevent the flight to a stronger ledger in the way that Alden framed it from one currency to another or for a reserve asset.

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FDR did it with Executive Order 6102, prohibiting Americans from owning gold, bullion, gold certificates, and forcing a surrender of gold at a fixed exchange rate.

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Argentina's done that. China still does it in a very authoritarian way.

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And this was a really surprising part in the essay, one of the things I want to highlight because it's astounding.

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And it's also just such an indicator.

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The IMF in 2022, Ovik notes, harbinger of things to come, the IMF revises its institutional view of capital controls.

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It was opposed to that, right, because that's a sensible monetary perspective and just like the freedom and liberty perspective.

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But then in 2022, they changed their institutional view, saying that capital controls are appropriate for, quote, managing risk in a way that preserves macroeconomic and financial stability.

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In a restrictive scenario, then, we get to that tipping point where the U.S. dollar is collapsing, Bitcoin is rising.

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In a restrictive scenario, the U.S. imposes capital controls, maybe price controls, maybe confiscatory taxation, maybe at $1 million per Bitcoin, the point where there's more Bitcoin billionaires than fiat billionaires.

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they began to impose hefty capital gains tax on Bitcoin.

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As another harbinger, Ovik notes that Janet Yellen,

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the Treasury Secretary under Biden,

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I did not know this either,

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had floated the idea of an 80% tax on crypto gains.

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And then, of course, Warren had also floated

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an even more incredible idea of unrealized,

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of taxing unrealized capital gains.

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It's just unprecedented, most likely unconstitutional.

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So in this restrictive scenario, there's all these possible price controls, capital controls, confiscatory taxation, ways that the U.S. government can, out of enmity, resentment, or just the felt need to redistribute Bitcoin wealth and try to bolster the dollar, can engage in all these forms of financial repression.

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And Ovik also notes, if you think that this is just a left wing thing, he mentions the U.S. Patriot Act passed by the Bush administration in relation to the war on terror, but also increasing AML, anti-money laundering and KYC, know your customer requirements.

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Things that now can easily be kind of weaponized or just used in a restrictive scenario.

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So in the restrictive scenario, then we see the end of America's exorbitant privilege.

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This is a common phrase that's been used to denote the U.S.'s ability to loan money in a currency that it can print, essentially, so that it can pay off its loans by just printing more.

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When that ends, so much of the U.S.'s monetary, not just privilege, but monetary power and then military power also goes with it.

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In that scenario, if the exorbitant privilege ends, then U.S.'s sphere of influence declines.

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The world becomes a multipolar world.

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Maybe, Ovik notes, maybe we have more conflict in that scenario.

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Maybe BTC refugees, in fact, can flee and do flee to places like El Salvador, Singapore, capital as well.

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So that's the restrictive scenario. The decline of the U.S., the imposition of financial oppression, a scenario that we really don't want to occur, I would think.

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The next one is the palsied scenario. This is kind of the middle ground to where we're going. The palsied scenario. This is kind of U.S. is unable to act against Bitcoin, not kind of out of a lack of will, but because maybe a lack of concerted will. There's partisan divide.

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The action on legislation becomes, it's already very difficult to get anything through Congress.

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And in the pausing scenario, that kind of continues.

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Restrictive measures like a CBDC are not able to be passed.

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Although, again, the pausing scenario is kind of a middle ground.

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It's also not, we couldn't, that sort of partisan paralysis doesn't necessarily freeze up the regulatory apparatus.

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So you have, for example, like ETFs, all the money, all of the Bitcoin locked into there as a regulatory target.

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Centralized exchanges also subject to federal regulators more so than needing Congress to pass new legislation.

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So in the palsied scenario, there's not the decisive financial repression you see in the restrictive scenario, but it's also not great.

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The Bitcoiners and Bitcoin capital may not flee, but they're going to be caught up in the paralysis and caught up also in just the general decline of the U.S. economic situation.

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In this scenario, you know, it's not completely hopeless.

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The Bitcoiners are in a position to help.

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They've held on to an asset that may be hope for the future.

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The third scenario is the munificent scenario.

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So this is best case.

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This is where, of course, we hope we're going and where Obik thinks we should dedicate our resources to ensure we are going.

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The U.S. in the munificent scenario, the U.S. responds to this 2024 rise in Bitcoin, collapse of the dollar by staying ahead of events.

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Maybe there's a Bukali Malay type character who's elected in the United States, a dynamic pro-Bitcoin candidate who reduces U.S. debt burden, does something like peg the dollar to Bitcoin.

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Ovik floats the idea of 67 sats to a dollar, which is 1.5 million a coin.

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Maybe this dynamic candidate cuts entitlements in a way that does not hurt people through things like means testing and encouraging innovation and competition among providers.

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And then when hopefully the situation stabilizes, we reset. Social security is backed by Bitcoin and then move forward in a world where the dominant monetary regime is freedom money.

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And the U.S. is then poised to continue, maybe not continue, maybe for the first time, really truthfully expounding on ideas of liberty and freedom around the world.

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China, again, if it continues with its authoritarian political regime, not likely to adopt freedom money.

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The U.S. then, in the munificent scenario, really coming out on top.

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Giving history, just giving what has happened historically when the monetary ledger begins to crumble,

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ovic thinks that the restrictive scenario is the most likely and he assigns um the least likelihood

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to the munificent scenario history is not often in its outcomes munificent although the u.s has i

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think a couple of times the u.s revolution um thwarted that and reset to a munificent timeline

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so i want to stop right there to discuss those we're going to go on to discuss ovic's suggestions

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of what can be done to put us on the munificent timeline, what we can do, what the U.S. should do.

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But before we go there, Lucas, I want to talk about these three scenarios, the restrictive scenario,

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the palsied scenario, and the munificent scenario. Where do you think we're going?

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It would probably be unwise to assume that we're not going to follow the path of the past. I think

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that the restrictive scenario is probably the most likely.

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We know it's the most likely.

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I think that Roy makes a good point

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when he talks about that there, you know,

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there's always going to be more have-nots

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than there will be haves.

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And so the have-nots have the same vote as the haves

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in a democratic system.

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Yeah, like the amount of Bitcoin distribution, I'll just get that on the table.

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That was surprising to me.

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The stats on, because we think about the U.S. dollar being very unequally distributed, and it is 1% has.

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I think it was like 34.

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Yeah, 1% of fiat holders have 34% of fiat wealth.

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And I wouldn't say maybe not fiat holders because the 1% has diversified their assets, right?

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But 1% of wealth holders hold 34% of fiat.

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Within Bitcoin, though, it's worse.

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It's 0.3% of wallets own more than 82% of all Bitcoin in existence.

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So it's hard to interrupt there, but get the numbers on the table.

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No, I thought about that too.

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Yeah, so what that does, obviously, is it makes that 0.3% a massive target for the 99.7%, right?

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But I don't think that's the proper way to think about it.

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And when I think about it, I think, so what that number is, what the author is trying to tell us that number says is that there's an unequal distribution of Bitcoin.

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Or maybe it's not what he's trying to tell us it says, but how people will interpret it.

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But what I think about it is that if you look at the rest of the Bitcoin holders, the other 99.7%, that's more equal.

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Like the distribution among them is far more equal than the distribution of the U.S. dollar among the other 66%.

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Is that the case?

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Yeah, because like most of the wallets are below that, you know, whatever, 10 below that.

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Like I think it's like 10 Bitcoin or something like that.

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And so I actually look at that number and I interpret it as, oh, there is – I actually think that there's more equality on Bitcoin.

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And I know that when you first glance at those numbers, that's not exactly what you think.

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But the way that I think about it is like, look, there's always going to be outliers. It's probably better that we have just a couple outliers. It's only 0.3%, right? So it's one, almost one fourth, one, you know, more than a, less than a third of the amount that holds 34% of the fiat money.

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everybody else is a lot more equal and the way that i look at bitcoin adoption we know that it

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happens primarily among those who need it and so the ones that need it are the one that suffers

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the most under the old system so you kind of have this interesting accumulation accumulation mechanism

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where those that are least privileged that have the least amount in this system adopt it before

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are the ones that have the most. And because the price goes up, there's kind of this equalizing

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thing that goes on where, yeah, it kind of is going to equal out as the poor adopt it earlier

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and the rich adopt it later. And then we do still have this to the side. Yeah, there are people that

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adopted it very early and they took a huge risk and they took a massive jump. And yes, there's

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some smart people there yes there's some people that were just trying to buy molly and uh and buy

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drugs on the internet yes there's people that were just um happened to happen to explore it and find

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it but um so now you're bleeding into the you start off saying that it would be unwise to

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yeah think we're on the restrictive timeline but now you're bleeding into the munificent scenario

197
00:20:15,740 --> 00:20:22,140
and thinking that bitcoin's going to be or is equally distributed enough among the um least

198
00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:25,680
economically, you know, well off.

199
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:27,580
I mean, that begins to look like.

200
00:20:27,580 --> 00:20:31,780
I don't think that they're, I don't think that they're, I don't think that's the same

201
00:20:31,780 --> 00:20:32,140
argument.

202
00:20:32,360 --> 00:20:38,880
I think that, I think that you can have equal, or I think you can have a more equal distribution

203
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:47,780
yet still have people that look to that 0.3% and want to take it away.

204
00:20:47,840 --> 00:20:47,940
Yeah.

205
00:20:47,940 --> 00:21:02,639
That almost like a fourth scenario I was thinking about which is I would say the munificent socialist scenario where you have the like the like unmade people who own under one Bitcoin go untouched

206
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And then everybody else is subject to increasingly confiscatory taxation or something like that.

207
00:21:08,579 --> 00:21:25,299
I'm not advocating or not advocating that scenario, but maybe that's the one of the timelines that's, you know, not it's munificent if you are of leftist orientation and you naturally think that like vast wealth accumulation should be redistributed forcefully by the state.

208
00:21:26,119 --> 00:21:36,339
Yeah. What do you think we're in now? What if you were to look at globally or regionally as far as like the U.S., what what scenario are we in?

209
00:21:36,339 --> 00:21:39,779
Then they've, I think we're in the, then they forgot about you stage.

210
00:21:40,479 --> 00:21:41,479
So they laugh at you.

211
00:21:41,619 --> 00:21:42,059
What is this?

212
00:21:42,099 --> 00:21:42,799
They ignore you.

213
00:21:42,839 --> 00:21:43,739
Then they laugh at you.

214
00:21:43,739 --> 00:21:47,239
Then they momentarily forget about you when there's not price action.

215
00:21:47,959 --> 00:21:49,579
Where it just starts to grind away.

216
00:21:49,799 --> 00:21:50,859
Then they begin to fight you again.

217
00:21:51,199 --> 00:21:51,319
Yeah.

218
00:21:51,379 --> 00:21:57,599
So I think we're in that like kind of Bitcoin's out of news stage, which is like part of the,

219
00:21:57,959 --> 00:22:01,379
then they fight you as maybe a series of skirmishes leading up to battles, right?

220
00:22:01,399 --> 00:22:02,239
Do you think it's intentional?

221
00:22:02,819 --> 00:22:03,699
I think it's intentional.

222
00:22:04,299 --> 00:22:05,039
No, I don't.

223
00:22:05,139 --> 00:22:06,199
Like intentional by who?

224
00:22:06,199 --> 00:22:09,319
Like the world is seven, eight billion intentional actors.

225
00:22:09,439 --> 00:22:10,079
Intentional by who?

226
00:22:10,419 --> 00:22:17,199
I think that there is a concerted effort right now to depress the price of Bitcoin through.

227
00:22:18,099 --> 00:22:18,859
Concerted by whom?

228
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:26,539
By capital accumulators, primarily in the U.S. government, whose goal.

229
00:22:27,819 --> 00:22:33,939
I know that this starts to get complex, but we saw the precedent for it with Intel,

230
00:22:33,939 --> 00:22:42,479
where the United States government basically forced their way into owning a significant percentage of this company.

231
00:22:43,399 --> 00:22:50,379
And so you are, we have a precedent now for nationalization, like outright nationalization,

232
00:22:50,379 --> 00:22:56,039
not the quiet nationalization like we had with the banking industry and the automobile industry,

233
00:22:56,239 --> 00:23:00,779
but outright public nationalization of individual companies.

234
00:23:00,779 --> 00:23:18,279
And so you think about so we've got like massive accumulation going on through like BlackRock and through strategy and other companies that there is now a precedent for the United States government to step in and say, hey, we own 10 percent of you now.

235
00:23:18,699 --> 00:23:28,359
And thus we can now use that to back our dollar and spread our spread our stable coins around.

236
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:38,239
Right. It is possible the U.S. is playing, like, what do they say, a four-dimensional chess on the – because the Bitcoin reserve is kind of – people have been wondering what's going on.

237
00:23:38,259 --> 00:23:39,619
You have this announcement, what's going on.

238
00:23:39,939 --> 00:23:45,319
You know, the smart move would be to try to accumulate in a way that doesn't stimulate the rise to skyrocket upward.

239
00:23:45,799 --> 00:23:45,939
Yeah.

240
00:23:45,999 --> 00:23:51,139
So maybe the administration does have something brewing, in which case I'll hand it to you.

241
00:23:51,159 --> 00:23:52,899
Maybe there would be something intentional to that.

242
00:23:52,899 --> 00:24:01,279
I mean, I tend to think that markets, we ascribe intentionality to things that are not intentional because we are primitive animals and we see animal forms in the clouds.

243
00:24:01,579 --> 00:24:07,679
That's kind of our evolutionary state of mind generally is to see patterns when there are none.

244
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,119
What is it, tricked by randomness, something like that?

245
00:24:10,459 --> 00:24:14,359
Yeah, but no, that would be a potential scenario.

246
00:24:14,559 --> 00:24:15,199
I can see that.

247
00:24:15,519 --> 00:24:17,139
But is it never ascribed to malice?

248
00:24:17,339 --> 00:24:21,919
That can be explained by incompetent.

249
00:24:21,919 --> 00:24:28,819
But also or just like random atomic patterns for whatever, like swirls of matter or something like that.

250
00:24:29,459 --> 00:24:29,599
Yeah.

251
00:24:29,999 --> 00:24:39,959
But, you know, and the reason I say this is because I remember watching Howard Lutnick on Pompliano's show like eight months.

252
00:24:40,059 --> 00:24:40,599
No, shit.

253
00:24:40,819 --> 00:24:41,099
Oh, yeah.

254
00:24:41,179 --> 00:24:41,659
A year.

255
00:24:41,719 --> 00:24:42,559
That was before the election.

256
00:24:42,719 --> 00:24:43,879
Before the election, right?

257
00:24:44,079 --> 00:24:45,819
And literally lay this all out.

258
00:24:46,019 --> 00:24:47,639
Like, oh, yeah, this is what we're going to do.

259
00:24:47,639 --> 00:24:49,579
Like, we're going to accumulate.

260
00:24:49,579 --> 00:24:51,659
We're going to nationalize.

261
00:24:51,779 --> 00:24:59,239
You know, I think that the United States has a right to have warrant, have bonds, or have ownership in these companies.

262
00:24:59,379 --> 00:24:59,999
You sell all that?

263
00:25:00,159 --> 00:25:00,319
Yeah.

264
00:25:00,459 --> 00:25:01,219
I listen to him.

265
00:25:01,259 --> 00:25:01,639
Yeah, warrants.

266
00:25:01,819 --> 00:25:01,899
Yeah.

267
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:02,559
Interesting.

268
00:25:02,819 --> 00:25:06,159
I had to learn what warrants were because he kept saying it and I had no idea.

269
00:25:06,579 --> 00:25:07,179
What are warrants?

270
00:25:07,499 --> 00:25:11,919
Yeah, I mean, he literally, Lutnick basically spelled out all of this.

271
00:25:11,979 --> 00:25:12,159
Yeah.

272
00:25:12,159 --> 00:25:23,019
And so, yeah, I think I don't know what the opposite of don't ascribe to malice, what you can blame on incompetence.

273
00:25:23,099 --> 00:25:31,839
But it's like don't ascribe to chance what you can explain by brilliance or by just somebody literally telling you their plans on a podcast.

274
00:25:31,839 --> 00:25:32,739
That's what's happened, right?

275
00:25:33,239 --> 00:25:38,419
People have been surprised when in the Trump administration they've done things that they've promised to do,

276
00:25:38,419 --> 00:25:42,719
which maybe is surprising for politicians when things happen that they plan.

277
00:25:43,259 --> 00:25:50,139
But I don't know where that places us, though, on the restrictive palsied or munificent timeline.

278
00:25:51,039 --> 00:25:54,059
Again, maybe it's setting up a form.

279
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,659
It sets us up for a possibility of financial oppression, right?

280
00:25:56,739 --> 00:26:04,559
A capital control or a seizure, rather, of these sort of bottlenecked or contained –

281
00:26:04,559 --> 00:26:08,079
you contain enough Bitcoin into a monetary vehicle like an ETF.

282
00:26:08,079 --> 00:26:12,419
It becomes easy to do that Intel 10% take on it.

283
00:26:12,419 --> 00:26:19,539
Yeah, well, because I think right now it feels like the real driving force is to promote the use of stable coins.

284
00:26:19,779 --> 00:26:23,259
And stable coins are easily confiscated.

285
00:26:23,559 --> 00:26:31,179
They are dependent really upon Bitcoin.

286
00:26:31,179 --> 00:26:43,619
You know, you can't you can't blow these stable coins out of the water in terms of your ability to issue new debt if you don't have something backing it.

287
00:26:43,619 --> 00:26:54,439
There's I don't remember who it was, but oh, it was the the thing that we saw the Russian at the Russian analyst that was talking about this.

288
00:26:54,439 --> 00:27:11,559
Like, look, the United States goal here is to take all this debt, the thirty seven trillion dollars of debt and throw it into a crypto cloud and then disperse that debt over the entire world instead of keeping it in the United States through the use of stable coins.

289
00:27:11,559 --> 00:27:23,139
And, yeah, that works because right now everybody wants to have – everybody thinks they want to have stablecoins that are backed by the U.S. dollar.

290
00:27:23,139 --> 00:27:47,859
But comparatively speaking, if the battleground is between a U.S. dollar that's backed by U.S. treasuries, that's backed by violence, and the other side is a BRICS sort of CBDC that's backed partially by gold, which the BRICS nations have been accumulating gold at rates never before seen.

291
00:27:47,859 --> 00:27:56,039
then you're going to see the value of the U.S. dollar decline precipitously compared to gold simply because of the hardness of gold.

292
00:27:57,259 --> 00:28:03,659
And so you have to back that stable coin with Bitcoin.

293
00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:05,359
And so how do you do that?

294
00:28:05,439 --> 00:28:10,859
Are you going to seize it through the nationalization of these companies?

295
00:28:11,599 --> 00:28:13,959
Are you going to issue a new 6102?

296
00:28:15,279 --> 00:28:17,079
What is your mechanism going to be?

297
00:28:17,079 --> 00:28:37,239
And are you going to try and put everything under the purvey, everything under the idea of a previous ruling, which, you know, you mentioned the, you know, unprecedented Elizabeth Warren trying to tax unrealized gains on cryptocurrency.

298
00:28:37,239 --> 00:28:47,479
But there is a precedent, and the precedent is simply real estate taxes, that we have unrealized gains that are taxed on real estate values.

299
00:28:48,779 --> 00:28:49,659
Bitcoin is –

300
00:28:49,659 --> 00:28:50,559
In the form of –

301
00:28:50,559 --> 00:28:58,659
So when you – every year your house is assessed, like the value of your house is assessed, and you pay taxes based on the assessed value.

302
00:28:58,659 --> 00:29:00,159
So it's a type of unrealized –

303
00:29:00,159 --> 00:29:02,759
So these are – that's an unrealized gain, right?

304
00:29:02,839 --> 00:29:03,459
You can say that.

305
00:29:03,459 --> 00:29:14,719
Yeah, I mean, there's really no other way to say it. Like, that's exactly what that is, is that you buy a house for $100,000 and five years later you're getting taxed on $400,000, right?

306
00:29:14,719 --> 00:29:35,799
And so you end up rebuying that house multiple times over the time that you own it. And Saylor does a good job of explaining this, like the amount that it costs to own a house over time because of the inflationary nature of assets that are harder than money that people flee to.

307
00:29:35,799 --> 00:29:45,479
If you can tax that without like it's just sitting there, you didn't sell the house, you didn't realize a gain, but you're being taxed on it literally every single year.

308
00:29:45,639 --> 00:29:47,319
We do have a precedent for that.

309
00:29:47,319 --> 00:30:12,479
And so that puts us in. To go back to the original question that we're kind of posing each other, I do think that the restrictive scenario is most likely. And it feels that even though there's a lot of talk about other things going on, I feel like it's still what we're in. It's still what we're in.

310
00:30:12,479 --> 00:30:36,359
Yeah. Yeah. The restrictive scenario seems psychologically. You said feels like the way and that's something we're kind of operating on feels here. It's kind of what you have to do. And also just because like when you're predicting the future, you're predicting we're doing some psychohistory in Asimov's terms. And that's I as I feel that that's kind of like predicting the accumulation of psychological states of all of the actors or something like that.

311
00:30:36,359 --> 00:30:40,939
And like envy and resentment is such a deep-seated part of the human condition.

312
00:30:41,539 --> 00:30:50,739
And that seems to like the darkness of the restrictive timeline is like from direct from the dark heart of resentment.

313
00:30:51,019 --> 00:30:54,219
You just see the those lead that leads to that one.

314
00:30:54,219 --> 00:31:03,999
The Munificent scenario to the extent it doesn't channel, to the extent it relies on like altruism and doesn't channel self-interest.

315
00:31:03,999 --> 00:31:11,399
You know, that's going to be tough to get us there because the munificent scenario needs to be fueled also by a psychologically powerful motive to get us there.

316
00:31:11,879 --> 00:31:14,859
Which, you know, people, patriotism could be something like that.

317
00:31:14,899 --> 00:31:26,419
Or if enough people are invested in Bitcoin and you begin to channel self-interest and enough people were able to kind of get out of our partisan morass and maybe there is something to that.

318
00:31:26,459 --> 00:31:30,639
But I feel restrictive is most likely, but I want to make a case for the munificent scenario.

319
00:31:31,379 --> 00:31:31,459
Yeah.

320
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:31,979
Yeah.

321
00:31:31,979 --> 00:31:32,479
Please do.

322
00:31:32,479 --> 00:31:42,459
So is patriotism advantageous for the munificent scenario or is it also what we will call upon in order to maintain a restrictive scenario?

323
00:31:42,459 --> 00:32:01,319
Yeah. Patriotism, as we've seen, is kind of a weaponizable sentiment with like the Patriot Act. That's one of the right wing forms mentioned as a right wing form of the restrictive scenario. And so that occurs when you have an attack on the U.S. You have some it wasn't a false flag event, but you could in the future see.

324
00:32:01,319 --> 00:32:02,079
How do you know that?

325
00:32:02,519 --> 00:32:04,399
We won't go down that rabbit hole today.

326
00:32:04,399 --> 00:32:10,799
You can see like a false flag event in the future that leads to like we see right now.

327
00:32:10,939 --> 00:32:13,239
And I don't know enough about UK politics to opine.

328
00:32:13,359 --> 00:32:18,219
But, you know, this seems some are saying that there's this backlash against immigration.

329
00:32:18,219 --> 00:32:21,979
And now they're using that to fuel a national digital ID.

330
00:32:21,979 --> 00:32:33,639
And so there could be something like that in the future where some other issue is used to fuel a restrictive measure that also has the ability to be a form of monetary repression.

331
00:32:33,939 --> 00:32:36,399
And then patriotism could definitely be harnessed.

332
00:32:36,659 --> 00:32:39,299
You know, the U.S. is attacked by a foreign enemy.

333
00:32:39,479 --> 00:32:41,019
So we have Patriot Act 2.

334
00:32:41,599 --> 00:32:47,499
And then that includes also hefty AML and KYC stuff that becomes a way to monetarily repress the people.

335
00:32:47,499 --> 00:33:01,619
Yeah. And right wing, I think we need to make the distinction that right wing is not conservative. Right wing is, I mean, if you look at the actions of right wing, it's effectively socialism.

336
00:33:01,619 --> 00:33:18,439
You know, that's what the Patriot Act was, was a very socialist, oppressive, 1984-esque type of government oversight that does not fall in line with conservative, I don't believe, politics.

337
00:33:18,439 --> 00:33:28,859
That it doesn't stand for individual rights or liberty or the ability to have freedom to transact or freedom of movement or anything like that.

338
00:33:28,859 --> 00:33:35,179
it's just cloaked in the name right wing. And it just so happened to be that there was a,

339
00:33:35,179 --> 00:33:41,619
you know, Republican in office at the time. But, you know, that Republican's vice president was

340
00:33:41,619 --> 00:33:50,399
one of Kamala Harris's biggest supporters. Right. And so is right wing really any more a

341
00:33:50,399 --> 00:33:56,979
conservative? Like, they're just bad nomenclature. Yeah. Well, they're just there. The right and

342
00:33:56,979 --> 00:34:02,699
left wing are different wings of the same damn house of this socialist house or this, you know,

343
00:34:02,779 --> 00:34:12,719
this whatever you want to call it, but this government oppressive house that they they seem to they seem to want to achieve the same ideals just through different messaging.

344
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:21,199
Yeah. And for the most part, like so going back to Smolenski's introduction, the Satoshi papers, I mean, it's a play on the Federalist papers.

345
00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:31,359
And so the values that unite this anthology are not left or right wing, but supposed to be a throwback, an attempt to go back to the values of the founding.

346
00:34:31,359 --> 00:34:45,139
And like she talked to me in the introduction about the Bank Secrecy Act and all this legislation that seems to have and maybe does have some sort of like good impetus and need to regulate in a way that seems good.

347
00:34:45,219 --> 00:34:54,179
But it always ends up, you know, imposing some limitation that we would think based on our conception of the founders that they would find to be very egregious.

348
00:34:54,179 --> 00:34:54,579
Yeah.

349
00:34:54,759 --> 00:34:54,979
Yeah.

350
00:34:54,979 --> 00:35:19,659
There's some movie, I can't remember what it was, but I just remember this line in it where they say that a person is smart, but people are stupid. And, you know, the masses will move in a direction that otherwise individuals would not do alone because they can be caught up in the moment and swept away by emotion and these words like patriotism and freedom and whatever.

351
00:35:19,659 --> 00:35:29,699
It's interesting. Like the mob, when we call it the mob, yes, that's the thing of passions. But then we think there's two ways to aggregate persons. There's the mob and the market, right?

352
00:35:29,839 --> 00:35:31,499
Yeah, and the hive mind, right?

353
00:35:31,499 --> 00:35:38,979
But I'm saying like the market, the outcomes aren't as emotional or devastatingly bad as the mob.

354
00:35:39,059 --> 00:35:40,119
Like the mob lynches people.

355
00:35:40,279 --> 00:35:41,359
The mob cancels people.

356
00:35:41,699 --> 00:35:45,019
The market, people then have to put their money where their mouth is.

357
00:35:45,019 --> 00:35:58,479
And so they become like less likely to try to replace objectivity with emotion because they're thinking of their own futures and their families and their well-being in a way that they – when you're part of the mob, you momentarily forget that.

358
00:35:58,479 --> 00:36:05,759
and then act out, you know, the, like the Girardian satanic impulse or whatever of trying to scapegoat somebody.

359
00:36:06,019 --> 00:36:06,159
Yeah.

360
00:36:06,579 --> 00:36:07,019
Yeah.

361
00:36:07,199 --> 00:36:08,619
You get caught up in the moment.

362
00:36:08,759 --> 00:36:08,879
Yeah.

363
00:36:08,879 --> 00:36:14,999
But the skin in the game of being in the market reveals your true preferences and it reveals your true intentions.

364
00:36:15,139 --> 00:36:15,679
We hope so.

365
00:36:15,799 --> 00:36:16,219
We hope so.

366
00:36:16,459 --> 00:36:19,639
I'm not to, to what, what's the opposite of eulogized?

367
00:36:20,299 --> 00:36:21,339
I don't know.

368
00:36:22,219 --> 00:36:24,399
God, it's a word for you.

369
00:36:24,399 --> 00:36:28,279
As opposed to like when somebody dies, you have a eulogy and this is like when somebody's born.

370
00:36:28,479 --> 00:36:50,599
Right. There's some word when you say a bunch of good things about something. There's probably a lot of words for that. And anyways, not to do that about the markets. Markets can also probably have bad outcomes. The palsied scenario. So, you know, restrictive, munificent. I mean, there's a good case for the palsied scenario, too, because like we see partisan like deadlock. That's the nature of the game in Congress.

371
00:36:50,599 --> 00:36:55,179
That's why we have like the executive Trump doing all these things through executive orders, right?

372
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:57,319
Because you're not going to count on Congress to pass anything.

373
00:36:58,139 --> 00:37:00,399
So what do you think about the policy scenario?

374
00:37:01,079 --> 00:37:04,939
So that's the one if I was when you ask me, like, what's the most likely?

375
00:37:04,939 --> 00:37:05,939
I think it's the restrictive.

376
00:37:05,939 --> 00:37:13,239
But when I look at the environment that I see right now, the policy scenario is the one that.

377
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:24,519
If you try to consider everything, you're like, well, there's a lot of advancement going on in certain states that is moving Bitcoin in one direction.

378
00:37:24,939 --> 00:37:36,459
There's also a very entrenched and incredibly well-capitalized opposition that is doing what they can to halt that.

379
00:37:36,459 --> 00:38:00,259
So the palsied scenario is kind of the one that the lived experience kind of gives you with, you know, obviously we have a democracy that is created for the purpose of not moving quickly, for the purpose of checks and balances.

380
00:38:00,259 --> 00:38:12,439
Right. And so we live in a system that is literally designed for that palsied scenario that we would rather do nothing than do something wrong or do something right.

381
00:38:12,639 --> 00:38:18,759
Possibly. Yeah, I think the palsied scenario is incredibly feasible.

382
00:38:19,699 --> 00:38:27,179
And it's the system is designed for the palsied scenario, I guess is what I would say.

383
00:38:27,179 --> 00:38:40,319
Yeah. No. And I mean, I think you're right. You say lived experience. That's maybe where we were. You have in the Biden administration a different view on regulating ETFs and Bitcoin than you do in the Trump administration.

384
00:38:40,319 --> 00:38:50,819
And one, yeah, where the regulatory apparatus is what is used to inflict pain on Bitcoin holders or the opposite, right?

385
00:38:50,899 --> 00:38:52,299
And not law or legislation.

386
00:38:53,019 --> 00:38:54,159
And so that's the policy scenario.

387
00:38:54,359 --> 00:38:58,199
We just kind of stumbled forward with policy, unable to act.

388
00:38:58,359 --> 00:39:00,199
And the dollar gets weaker and weaker.

389
00:39:00,339 --> 00:39:01,859
Bitcoin does gain in value.

390
00:39:02,619 --> 00:39:09,539
And so maybe bad for the U.S., not as bad as a restrictive scenario, like bad for us as a society that we can't get our shit together.

391
00:39:09,539 --> 00:39:16,019
I mean, we kind of know that that's part of our national DNA, as you mentioned, but not the best, not the worst.

392
00:39:16,259 --> 00:39:18,019
So, I mean, that's kind of a little promising.

393
00:39:18,919 --> 00:39:24,659
The palsy scenario, when you mentioned like we may be in the stage of like then they forget about you.

394
00:39:24,779 --> 00:39:24,979
Yeah.

395
00:39:25,019 --> 00:39:28,499
Like that's kind of palsied too, where it's like, just whatever.

396
00:39:28,619 --> 00:39:29,879
I'm going to put it out of my mind.

397
00:39:29,959 --> 00:39:38,279
I'm not going to – we're going to do like what humans typically do with problems is we're going to try not to think about them and hope that they resolve themselves instead of taking action.

398
00:39:38,359 --> 00:39:38,999
Oh, yeah.

399
00:39:38,999 --> 00:39:45,959
Yeah. Or just like replace one problem with a sexier problem, like the one that's more exciting.

400
00:39:46,059 --> 00:39:48,499
That's the culture wars all about. Right. Yeah. Yeah.

401
00:39:48,499 --> 00:39:51,399
We're so easy. It's more emotional. Oh, there's this other thing over here.

402
00:39:51,479 --> 00:39:53,699
You know, they're deporting people without due process.

403
00:39:53,859 --> 00:39:56,139
Things like that. Yeah. That sees the national consciousness.

404
00:39:56,139 --> 00:40:02,319
It's much more difficult to think about. We're going to bankrupt or we're going to have like this huge debt to GDP ratio in 2044.

405
00:40:02,319 --> 00:40:06,659
We need to do something now. Yeah. Try to mobilize support for that.

406
00:40:06,659 --> 00:40:09,379
I mean, we have a huge debt to GDP ratio right now.

407
00:40:09,739 --> 00:40:20,899
Like that's the hilarious, like you look at it, it's like if you look 20 years ago, 20, no, 30, like close to 30 now, we had a surplus.

408
00:40:21,299 --> 00:40:27,439
And then we had what we determined at the time was a huge debt to GDP ratio.

409
00:40:27,619 --> 00:40:31,459
And then it just kept getting bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger and bigger.

410
00:40:31,459 --> 00:40:37,739
And we look at it kind of in terms of this relative like, oh, well, we're not as bad as Japan.

411
00:40:39,419 --> 00:40:46,199
And so we must be fine because Japan still, you know, we have this survivorship bias where it's like, oh, they still have a flag.

412
00:40:46,899 --> 00:40:48,139
It still exists.

413
00:40:48,299 --> 00:40:49,879
There's still people that are alive there.

414
00:40:49,959 --> 00:40:51,699
So Japan must be doing fine.

415
00:40:51,879 --> 00:40:52,199
Yeah.

416
00:40:53,399 --> 00:40:57,439
And, you know, A, that's really not the case.

417
00:40:57,439 --> 00:40:59,039
Like in their economy.

418
00:40:59,599 --> 00:41:01,719
Their economy is not doing well.

419
00:41:02,459 --> 00:41:11,039
And B, the only reason that they are able to do that is because they are propped up by the United States government because they are the largest holder of U.S. debt.

420
00:41:11,179 --> 00:41:14,539
And so you're not going to cut them off.

421
00:41:14,599 --> 00:41:16,279
You're not going to hang them out to dry.

422
00:41:16,279 --> 00:41:22,839
You're just going to keep pushing them further and further and further out onto the ledge in order to suck up as much of that as you can.

423
00:41:24,539 --> 00:41:27,859
Yeah, so there's this there's this survivorship bias.

424
00:41:27,859 --> 00:41:41,179
There's this relativity thing, you know, where it's like, oh, I weigh 300 pounds, but there's a show called, what is it, My 700-pound Life or 800-pound Life or 600 or I don't know what that is.

425
00:41:41,179 --> 00:41:53,478
Yeah there been inflation in the amount of obesity you have to have to be like on a reality show Exactly Yeah Well yeah Like we talked about this you know it like you come back and I like oh I fit for America

426
00:41:53,718 --> 00:41:54,158
Yeah.

427
00:41:54,158 --> 00:41:55,238
You came back from Malaysia.

428
00:41:56,038 --> 00:41:56,798
Nice job.

429
00:41:57,038 --> 00:41:57,238
Yeah.

430
00:41:57,338 --> 00:41:59,118
Like I'm fat in Malaysia.

431
00:41:59,438 --> 00:42:01,138
Well, not Malaysia, actually.

432
00:42:01,458 --> 00:42:02,518
People are kind of chunky there.

433
00:42:03,258 --> 00:42:09,378
But if you go to like, yeah, Africa, like I'm fat for Africa, but I am ripped for Kansas.

434
00:42:09,638 --> 00:42:09,878
Yeah.

435
00:42:09,998 --> 00:42:10,278
You know?

436
00:42:10,278 --> 00:42:22,258
And so it's all relative. And we can take that relative approach to the United States debt scenario and say, oh, yeah, we're doing just fine, just fine.

437
00:42:22,258 --> 00:42:38,618
But the reality is that I think it's like no one has like only 2% of all countries that have ever gotten to this level of debt have continued to exist.

438
00:42:38,878 --> 00:42:40,658
And the 2% is Japan.

439
00:42:41,458 --> 00:42:42,358
Like they're that.

440
00:42:42,358 --> 00:42:54,218
And then there's the caveat of like the only reason they're still around is because they're being propped up because we want to have a shit ton of military bases over there to keep an eye on China.

441
00:42:54,378 --> 00:42:58,558
And so it's in our best interest to make them effectively a vassal state.

442
00:42:58,958 --> 00:42:58,978
Right.

443
00:42:59,238 --> 00:42:59,478
Right.

444
00:42:59,698 --> 00:43:05,178
No, but I mean if we're in the then they forget about you state kind of stumbling forward in a palsied manner.

445
00:43:05,518 --> 00:43:07,098
I mean there is the decisive event.

446
00:43:07,178 --> 00:43:08,458
Maybe that's 2044.

447
00:43:08,878 --> 00:43:10,798
But there's going to be some manifestations.

448
00:43:10,798 --> 00:43:19,858
You know, we have symptoms of economic problems now, but maybe there's going to be a decisive event that makes that the forefront of the culture war.

449
00:43:20,038 --> 00:43:29,018
Right. And then it replaces all other issues when people see that Bitcoin's at one point five million and the dollar takes like sixty dollars to buy a hamburger or something like that.

450
00:43:29,018 --> 00:43:39,358
Yeah. So 1.5 million in 2044 seems like an awfully pessimistic view, not pessimistic, but it seems like a very low estimate.

451
00:43:39,358 --> 00:43:47,538
If you look at the adoption rate and you consider the past growth, you know, that's only like a 12x from here.

452
00:43:48,378 --> 00:43:53,958
And so that's something that could easily occur in a four year period.

453
00:43:53,958 --> 00:44:15,678
Yeah. You know, especially as we're like we we've now there's this case that I actually think has a lot of merit. There's a case that the effect of the halving cycle is over. And the reason that that is over is because of the buying pressure from all of these Bitcoin companies, which is creating scarcity that didn't exist before.

454
00:44:15,678 --> 00:44:23,538
where you've got like in on on a Monday, Michael Saylor buys three weeks worth of issuance.

455
00:44:23,638 --> 00:44:30,698
Right. And he's one of now 160 companies that are doing that. Right. And that number of companies is

456
00:44:30,698 --> 00:44:36,218
growing rapidly and their purchases are growing rapidly to where you now you see like Metaplanet

457
00:44:36,218 --> 00:44:44,838
is taking advantage of the weakness of the Japanese currency, the yen carry. And they are

458
00:44:44,838 --> 00:44:47,358
They're making larger purchases than strategy.

459
00:44:48,198 --> 00:44:55,218
You know, this is a one hotel operation that is now buying four times as much per week as strategy.

460
00:44:55,977 --> 00:45:01,158
And when they do that, then they're buying, you know, like they're literally buying a month of issuance at a time.

461
00:45:01,378 --> 00:45:07,678
And so it is really only a matter of time until that supply shock truly occurs.

462
00:45:07,678 --> 00:45:34,798
Because you've got, and especially when you look at, we're on the precipice of the inclusion of strategy and soon to be other companies into these, like the S&P 500 or into certain funds that instead of individual buys of their equity, you'll then have automatic buys, which will be like, that's a tidal wave.

463
00:45:34,798 --> 00:45:54,218
Maybe that tidal wave occurs. Maybe the price action occurs in that way. Maybe it doesn't. Maybe the supply shock is just blunted by the gradual price appreciation or something like that. I think for Ovic's essay here, take your point that maybe it's a conservative estimate of Bitcoin's value, but maybe that just accelerates the timeline, right?

464
00:45:54,218 --> 00:46:01,218
In any case, where we come to the fork in the road between restrictive, palsied, and munificent.

465
00:46:02,238 --> 00:46:08,758
So it seems like we kind of both think restrictive, likely, palsied, we're already doing that, so likely.

466
00:46:08,958 --> 00:46:10,438
How about the munificent scenario?

467
00:46:15,318 --> 00:46:23,977
The munificent scenario is, like, I think in order to have that, that you have to admit defeat of the fiat system.

468
00:46:23,977 --> 00:46:31,118
Like you can't continue on with this idea that they can coexist side by side.

469
00:46:33,118 --> 00:46:45,158
And so I think that the possibility of that is just so incredibly low because the exorbitant privilege exists.

470
00:46:45,158 --> 00:46:57,678
the veil would then have to be lifted where it is, you know, it is revealed and made clear to the world that this system only exists through violence, that it only exists.

471
00:46:57,678 --> 00:46:59,618
I mean, that's revealed in all the scenarios, though, right?

472
00:46:59,738 --> 00:47:07,218
I mean, it's not just a munificent scenario that has, I guess you're saying they have to accept that in order to proactively deal with it before it's happened.

473
00:47:07,218 --> 00:47:11,298
So they're not put the decisive occurrence in the way the restrictive one is.

474
00:47:11,358 --> 00:47:18,977
They kind of proactively in the events leading up to it began to move away from fiat without having yet collapsed.

475
00:47:18,977 --> 00:47:27,618
Well, it's like, you know, OK, so it would be like playing poker and you're sitting there and you've got the largest stack of chips.

476
00:47:27,958 --> 00:47:33,378
Yet you realize that there is no way for you to win the game.

477
00:47:33,378 --> 00:47:41,678
and so the only way for you to win is to take your chips and cash out and go to a table that's fair.

478
00:47:41,678 --> 00:47:47,778
And so I think that the likelihood of somebody doing that,

479
00:47:47,938 --> 00:47:53,858
if you and I are playing poker and I've got all the chips, not all, but I've got most of the chips,

480
00:47:54,198 --> 00:47:58,418
and I also, by the way, have the ability to create more chips whenever I want them

481
00:47:58,418 --> 00:47:59,878
and you don't have that ability,

482
00:47:59,878 --> 00:48:09,058
Yeah. It's really hard to convince me to leave that game because right now I have all the advantages and I can continue to play.

483
00:48:09,058 --> 00:48:09,618
Yes, it is.

484
00:48:09,698 --> 00:48:10,918
Yeah, I can continue to play.

485
00:48:11,058 --> 00:48:12,038
Trenched interests.

486
00:48:13,438 --> 00:48:17,977
And so the munificent scenario, I mean, we'll talk about, oh, we can move on to that right now.

487
00:48:18,038 --> 00:48:23,977
But like what Obick thinks is going to be necessary to help us move toward the munificent scenario.

488
00:48:23,977 --> 00:48:30,977
And yeah, entrenched interests are something that militate towards not having a munificent outcome.

489
00:48:31,958 --> 00:48:32,578
I hope for it, though.

490
00:48:32,578 --> 00:48:42,938
And I just want to say, you know, I made the case earlier that resentment is such a strong driver that psychologically it seems like the restrictive scenario is where human nature takes us.

491
00:48:43,098 --> 00:48:44,798
But I just, I don't know.

492
00:48:45,658 --> 00:48:49,338
You feel the vibe right now after Charlie Kirk's assassination, right?

493
00:48:49,477 --> 00:48:51,718
Maybe you feel on whatever side of the vibe you're on.

494
00:48:51,778 --> 00:49:00,238
But on the positive side of that vibe, there is a feeling that something can be done to change things, a feeling that we can build.

495
00:49:00,238 --> 00:49:13,798
I feel like there's a building positivity or optimism despite the terrible event that occurred because of it, of course, in a way that people want to move forward in a way that's more positive.

496
00:49:14,278 --> 00:49:23,458
And there's like a national optimism potentially that can come out of that if it's channeled in the right direction, I hope.

497
00:49:23,458 --> 00:49:42,458
I think the public sentiment right now is this collective realization as more and more people are exposed. And I think you and I are both in this category where we weren't like fervent Charlie Kirk supporters or followers of his content.

498
00:49:42,458 --> 00:50:11,878
But now, as a result of his assassination, his murder, we're seeing more and more of it. And we're realizing that there is a path, there is a way that you can engage with other people and be kind and be loving and be accepting of people and meet them on the field of discourse in a loving way.

499
00:50:12,458 --> 00:50:19,918
And for so long, like that has not been promoted as an idea that is achievable.

500
00:50:19,918 --> 00:50:30,418
And now we're like we're seeing an example of somebody who just lived this in such a beautiful way that it is.

501
00:50:30,578 --> 00:50:31,378
I think you're right.

502
00:50:31,518 --> 00:50:32,338
I think if you.

503
00:50:33,778 --> 00:50:36,098
I think you feel public sentiment.

504
00:50:36,618 --> 00:50:36,858
Yeah.

505
00:50:36,918 --> 00:50:40,758
Having a collective realization of hope.

506
00:50:40,758 --> 00:50:56,977
Because if all you do is read the culture war backlash or the culture war manifestation of the assassination, you just think inflammatory right wing figure, you know, was murdered. It's tragic for whatever. But if you didn't go back and look at what Charlie Kirk did in his videos, I was like, you know, I hadn't watched them before.

507
00:50:56,977 --> 00:51:08,658
Even aside from the politics, they just represent, and we were talking about this yesterday, there's like certain norms of civil discourse are enacted that if one watches those videos, you can see the practice of steel manning.

508
00:51:08,758 --> 00:51:14,678
You can see the practice of compassionately dealing with people from different backgrounds, genders, sexualities, things like that.

509
00:51:14,678 --> 00:51:29,618
You can see the practice of giving other people time to expound a position. You can see the practice of trying to get people to breathe and lower their heart rate to begin to talk in a way that's conducive to civil discourse.

510
00:51:29,618 --> 00:51:55,018
So, like, for me, apart from whatever politics were discussed, the fact of civil discourse is what it forefronts for me. And, like, that's, I think, the magnificent scenario. If civil discourse can be achieved, then that makes, you know, we get out of the policy scenario because we begin to be able to, oh, there's a bigger problem than the culture war left right on these issues.

511
00:51:55,018 --> 00:52:03,178
It is like the, you know, all of our economic well-being, essentially, and the dollar is not sustainable and Bitcoin is accumulating in value.

512
00:52:03,298 --> 00:52:07,338
It has these objective technological characteristics that we can harness.

513
00:52:07,558 --> 00:52:16,738
You know, if civil discourse is possible and if that comes out of a certain martyrdom of a figure who tried to engage in that, then maybe that helps steer us towards a munificent scenario.

514
00:52:17,158 --> 00:52:18,378
At least I hope it does, right?

515
00:52:18,378 --> 00:52:18,578
Yeah.

516
00:52:18,957 --> 00:52:19,318
Yeah.

517
00:52:19,818 --> 00:52:23,638
Every concentration can be bettered through communication.

518
00:52:23,638 --> 00:52:29,957
and that was charlie kirk's message is that when we stop talking to each other then we stop

519
00:52:29,957 --> 00:52:38,098
um being able to coexist and at that point we we become combative towards each other so

520
00:52:38,098 --> 00:52:42,698
yeah that's what the restrictive scenario is is a form of combat conducted through monetary

521
00:52:42,698 --> 00:52:47,578
repression we're not going to talk about this we're going to take what you have um whereas

522
00:52:47,578 --> 00:52:52,158
the munificent scenario is a sort of negotiation between the havers the people who have bitcoin

523
00:52:52,158 --> 00:52:55,518
and then wanting to rebuild the U.S. system on Bitcoin.

524
00:52:55,818 --> 00:52:59,598
So I feel like it's also an enactment of a sort of civil scenario.

525
00:52:59,678 --> 00:53:04,318
And just like on the level where monetary oppression does depend on state violence to enact it,

526
00:53:04,398 --> 00:53:06,838
you have to, if you're going to have confiscatory taxation,

527
00:53:07,418 --> 00:53:12,818
you have to have the soldiers come in to make people do those forceful transfers when they don't want to.

528
00:53:12,818 --> 00:53:18,578
I want to make the point that I think that all roads lead to the munificence scenario eventually.

529
00:53:20,038 --> 00:53:21,298
But I do think that they're...

530
00:53:21,298 --> 00:53:25,318
Yeah, I just like, I don't think that you can stop Bitcoin.

531
00:53:25,798 --> 00:53:28,238
I think that it's been tried by.

532
00:53:28,718 --> 00:53:32,098
But even the restrictive scenario says Bitcoin appreciates in value, right?

533
00:53:32,298 --> 00:53:40,098
Yeah, but I still think that regardless of what approach you try to take, that eventually you end up in the Bitcoin world.

534
00:53:40,298 --> 00:53:43,838
Like eventually we realize that there's no use for fiat.

535
00:53:43,838 --> 00:53:58,538
If we push out these stable coins in order to continue to push out debt, then what we're going to do is we're going to continue to devalue the dollar relative not just to Bitcoin, but relative to other global currencies.

536
00:53:58,538 --> 00:54:02,118
You end up in a restrictive world where there is Bitcoin.

537
00:54:02,578 --> 00:54:04,977
Did you end up like in the cyberpunk future where people are evading?

538
00:54:04,977 --> 00:54:05,818
For a short term.

539
00:54:06,457 --> 00:54:13,718
Like the state actors become even more rogue warlords trying to steal from, you know, individual private parties.

540
00:54:13,998 --> 00:54:16,698
And in the short term, maybe 50, 100 years.

541
00:54:16,957 --> 00:54:18,918
I mean, what's short term, right?

542
00:54:18,998 --> 00:54:20,378
Yeah, it's all relative.

543
00:54:20,378 --> 00:54:28,318
Yeah, I mean, out of that, I think the magnificent scenario, part of that outcome is we can preserve the U.S. government, U.S. United States.

544
00:54:28,318 --> 00:54:29,258
We can preserve the United States.

545
00:54:29,258 --> 00:54:30,938
I don't know why that's a project we have.

546
00:54:31,118 --> 00:54:35,718
Like, munificent is where we are relating that to good.

547
00:54:36,178 --> 00:54:38,838
And I don't know why it's good to preserve.

548
00:54:38,998 --> 00:54:42,318
I know this sounds like I don't know why it's good to preserve the United States.

549
00:54:42,318 --> 00:54:44,758
Spoken like a true network society.

550
00:54:45,918 --> 00:54:46,778
I had a note.

551
00:54:46,838 --> 00:54:48,258
I wanted to bring that up with you.

552
00:54:48,638 --> 00:54:51,238
I mean, I forget what exactly it was in relation to.

553
00:54:51,298 --> 00:54:55,718
But, yeah, the munificent scenario says, I think implicitly there is something worth preserving.

554
00:54:55,718 --> 00:55:05,658
And again, that's the whole – the Satoshi Papers is a reference to the Federalist Papers that the U.S. project is something worth preserving.

555
00:55:06,498 --> 00:55:09,418
And so we – Bitcoin can help us do that.

556
00:55:09,498 --> 00:55:11,858
It can help us get out of the monetary trap we've set for ourselves.

557
00:55:11,858 --> 00:55:27,318
I think the idea of rights and liberties and Christian foundational values, I think that those don't need the continued existence of the United States government in order to survive.

558
00:55:27,598 --> 00:55:41,838
I think that those truly are God-given and that they exist because they exist and that the United States government—

559
00:55:41,838 --> 00:55:45,738
them in the middle of like China or Iran or something like that? Do they still survive?

560
00:55:46,578 --> 00:55:51,438
Well, I don't think that again, like I don't think that the Chinese system survives. I don't I don't

561
00:55:51,438 --> 00:55:57,118
think that the Chinese system survives in a world of Bitcoin. And I think that we have a

562
00:55:57,118 --> 00:56:04,398
an analog to that. I think that we have a lesson from history that also comes from China

563
00:56:04,398 --> 00:56:11,218
when they failed to adopt gold as the world reserve currency and instead kept on silver

564
00:56:11,218 --> 00:56:19,638
and lost so much buying power versus the world that they entered a century-long period of what they call,

565
00:56:19,718 --> 00:56:22,258
I think, the 100 years of tears or the 100 years of shame.

566
00:56:22,758 --> 00:56:25,398
And I think that they're going to do that again.

567
00:56:25,398 --> 00:56:36,138
Like, if they are going to ignore Bitcoin, the relative appreciation of gold versus silver during that period back then was,

568
00:56:36,138 --> 00:56:41,398
yeah I don't know it was like it was like eight eight percent a year or something like that

569
00:56:41,398 --> 00:56:45,658
if you think about Bitcoin where it's appreciating compared to these other

570
00:56:45,658 --> 00:56:52,018
assets at you know 40 or 50 percent a year more then I think that you're just going to end up in

571
00:56:52,018 --> 00:56:58,618
a scenario that's even more like you can't run that Chinese system if you don't have power and

572
00:56:58,618 --> 00:57:04,378
if you don't have Bitcoin to power the system you can't run it like you can't run it on debt

573
00:57:04,378 --> 00:57:07,598
So I just don't think that – I don't think that that –

574
00:57:07,598 --> 00:57:08,278
We survived before Bitcoin.

575
00:57:08,477 --> 00:57:15,198
We survived with Bitcoin as an alternate that other people don't want to get on that ledger and they're prevented from getting on a ledger through force.

576
00:57:15,298 --> 00:57:15,838
That's how I feel.

577
00:57:15,957 --> 00:57:21,058
I don't think that – I mean, Bitcoin is a great technology, but so is political violence.

578
00:57:21,198 --> 00:57:22,658
So is like the violence of the state.

579
00:57:22,977 --> 00:57:29,178
You have a relative – I just don't think that they – like I think that, again, like I talk about this a lot.

580
00:57:29,178 --> 00:57:34,618
That kind of violence, it doesn't actually scale in a Bitcoin world.

581
00:57:35,078 --> 00:57:36,098
It doesn't scale.

582
00:57:36,098 --> 00:57:42,898
If you have people who self-custody, yeah, I can imprison you.

583
00:57:43,198 --> 00:57:44,258
It scales with AI surveillance, right?

584
00:57:44,338 --> 00:57:49,477
It scales with, there's other technologies that are also scaling as Bitcoin decentralizes.

585
00:57:49,618 --> 00:57:53,258
There's centralizing tech that in the world, there's potential futures that are terrifying.

586
00:57:54,098 --> 00:58:07,038
If I have self-custody Bitcoin, then you can take mine away and you can take, you know, you can beat it out of me and you can beat it out of a couple hundred thousand people.

587
00:58:07,178 --> 00:58:08,498
But you can't beat it out of the world.

588
00:58:08,638 --> 00:58:15,058
And there's always going to be more people that are trying to keep it for themselves than there are trying to go after it.

589
00:58:15,058 --> 00:58:15,798
Not necessarily.

590
00:58:16,018 --> 00:58:21,298
If there is mass extermination of people that hold Bitcoin by the state, there's going to be a lot less Bitcoin holders.

591
00:58:21,298 --> 00:58:39,938
Well, if you, again, so then that's self-defeating. Like if you're going to kill those people, then what are you going to do? If you kill those people, then their Bitcoin disappears and it only makes richer the remaining people who hold Bitcoin.

592
00:58:39,938 --> 00:58:41,538
It does make them more rich.

593
00:58:41,778 --> 00:58:47,818
Not a lot of people, if you exterminate Bitcoin holders and say, if you do Bitcoin transactions and are discovered, we're going to kill you.

594
00:58:47,898 --> 00:58:51,598
People are going to be like, I don't think I'm going to use this Bitcoin thing as much as I otherwise would.

595
00:58:51,738 --> 00:58:52,238
I disagree.

596
00:58:52,678 --> 00:59:04,018
I think that people recognize, like, I think that in those moments that we see that type of fear that's being played out, we also see the freedom.

597
00:59:04,018 --> 00:59:22,678
And I think that we should never underestimate the ability of humanity to move in a direction of their own good as opposed to being led by people who are moving in a direction of bad that benefits a few.

598
00:59:23,878 --> 00:59:26,698
I don't like – I know.

599
00:59:26,898 --> 00:59:27,977
It may be optimistic.

600
00:59:28,258 --> 00:59:29,058
I think it's very optimistic.

601
00:59:29,138 --> 00:59:30,318
I don't see that.

602
00:59:30,318 --> 00:59:40,678
I just don't see that those systems cannot survive because their ability to impart violence is dependent upon their ability to issue debt.

603
00:59:41,118 --> 00:59:56,457
And if they can't issue debt because no one wants to buy it, and we're seeing this right now with the United States where the largest percentage ever of debt being issued is being purchased by the Fed because nobody wants to buy our debt anymore.

604
00:59:56,457 --> 01:00:03,158
Yeah. So we're losing our ability to power violence through issuance of debt.

605
01:00:03,398 --> 01:00:05,658
There was violence before debt. There is violence.

606
01:00:05,818 --> 01:00:11,198
Yeah, but it was violence on like relatively speaking, it was violence on a minuscule scale.

607
01:00:11,218 --> 01:00:14,718
I disagree. Genghis Khan slaughtered a large percentage of the world population.

608
01:00:14,918 --> 01:00:16,818
He didn't need the fee. He didn't need fiat money to do it.

609
01:00:16,838 --> 01:00:20,798
He wasn't issuing debt. He was just beating shit out of people through merit. Right.

610
01:00:21,098 --> 01:00:21,998
That's all it takes.

611
01:00:21,998 --> 01:00:31,558
But he was doing it in, like, you can argue, like, if it wasn't Genghis Khan, there would have been somebody else because he did the things that you should do.

612
01:00:31,678 --> 01:00:34,018
He adopted the technologies of those people, right?

613
01:00:34,018 --> 01:00:39,578
So somebody with potentially AI tech and drone armies, they can do this, too, or whatever.

614
01:00:39,738 --> 01:00:45,058
I just, but in any case, let's make the case for the potential munificent outcome.

615
01:00:45,438 --> 01:00:48,058
What could enable this type of outcome?

616
01:00:48,058 --> 01:01:11,698
So Ovik does give us a set of things that he thinks could put us down the path of preserving the United States as a project, as a society, while Bitcoin also appreciates in value, preserving our ability to have entitlements like Social Security while also not destroying ourselves through debt.

617
01:01:11,838 --> 01:01:15,477
So what can be done to help lead us to this munificent outcome?

618
01:01:15,477 --> 01:01:16,778
I'm going to throw out some of these things.

619
01:01:16,858 --> 01:01:17,578
We can discuss them.

620
01:01:17,578 --> 01:01:23,398
He mentions, first, Bitcoiners need to recognize that lobbying is important.

621
01:01:23,698 --> 01:01:27,638
One kind of reaction Bitcoiners have, a lot of Bitcoiners are very libertarian.

622
01:01:28,098 --> 01:01:33,578
A lot of them want to stack sats, stick their head in the grass or the sand or whatever, like an ostrich.

623
01:01:33,678 --> 01:01:37,398
And just kind of like, for me and my own, I'm going to buy a farm and get out of here or whatever.

624
01:01:37,898 --> 01:01:41,218
But Ovik wants to say, nope, lobbying is very important.

625
01:01:41,718 --> 01:01:47,338
Things like the Bitcoin Mining Council, Satoshi Action Fund, Bitcoin-specific lobbying specifically, right?

626
01:01:47,338 --> 01:01:54,438
There's this crypto conflation that a lot of them want to do to like get crypto in on the back of Bitcoin.

627
01:01:55,118 --> 01:02:00,038
Think tanks to kind of grow out the ecosystem of people thinking and talking about Bitcoin.

628
01:02:00,498 --> 01:02:10,558
To grow the Bitcoin ecosystem as such, like through financial, not just financialization, like financial products, but getting people to use transactive Bitcoin.

629
01:02:10,758 --> 01:02:13,658
So there's more people that there's like pro Bitcoin businesses, right?

630
01:02:13,658 --> 01:02:23,418
Once you build up a third rail of businesses that also have Bitcoin, then they have their own interest in not wanting to have a restrictive scenario.

631
01:02:24,838 --> 01:02:33,638
Like L2s, that also increases the amount of people who are invested in Bitcoin being a part of our economic system.

632
01:02:33,638 --> 01:02:49,316
If there L2 products based on like lending borrowing tokenized securities or whatever then you have more businesses that are using Bitcoin in some productive way including miners as more L2s begin to in some way interact with the Bitcoin base layer

633
01:02:49,316 --> 01:02:52,416
with a new product, transaction fees increase,

634
01:02:52,576 --> 01:02:54,856
and then mining infrastructure builds out.

635
01:02:55,056 --> 01:02:59,396
More businesses are in some way participating in the Bitcoin economy,

636
01:02:59,396 --> 01:03:03,876
so it's less likely there's going to be this restrictive crackdown as such on Bitcoin.

637
01:03:04,536 --> 01:03:15,157
Um, those are some of the things. Do you think that those things are good and viable and might lead us down a munificent path?

638
01:03:15,157 --> 01:03:20,816
So I feel like I'm being difficult, but I'm not trying to be.

639
01:03:20,816 --> 01:03:47,036
My stance on this is that the idea of lobbying, it assumes a hierarchical relationship where it's like we are assuming that we are down here and we are going to spend money and participate in what the world recognizes.

640
01:03:47,036 --> 01:03:52,456
but we don't see in the United States as a legalized bribery system, which is what our

641
01:03:52,456 --> 01:03:59,716
lobbying system is, that we're going to participate in that system and come at it from a level

642
01:03:59,716 --> 01:04:03,936
of we're down here, we know you're up here, and we're going to give you money and ask

643
01:04:03,936 --> 01:04:05,716
for scraps and ask for compromise.

644
01:04:06,856 --> 01:04:12,396
And my position on that is that, and this is, by the way, this is Bologi's position

645
01:04:12,396 --> 01:04:15,456
too, which is you have voice, exit, and loyalty.

646
01:04:17,036 --> 01:04:22,076
where you can be loyal to the system, you can fall in line and be steamrolled by it.

647
01:04:22,196 --> 01:04:28,236
You can voice in the system and you can try and lobby and fight for your interests.

648
01:04:28,576 --> 01:04:33,476
Or you can pick up your chips and you can leave the game and you can go to a table that's a fair game.

649
01:04:33,476 --> 01:04:34,816
Yeah, you can go to Malaysia if you want.

650
01:04:34,816 --> 01:04:36,876
And you can wait for those other people to follow you.

651
01:04:36,916 --> 01:04:38,657
And you don't have to go to Malaysia to do that.

652
01:04:38,756 --> 01:04:40,216
All you have to do is buy Bitcoin.

653
01:04:40,216 --> 01:05:04,936
And so the most effective form of lobbying is people exiting the system because then it leaves this gap where you can't like it continually decreases the size of that vacuum and that echo chamber of people that are making these rules.

654
01:05:05,676 --> 01:05:07,476
That increases the size of the echo chamber.

655
01:05:07,596 --> 01:05:16,016
If you have one side cease lobbying and go off to play with their Bitcoins in a corner, then you have one people talking to the legislators.

656
01:05:16,456 --> 01:05:17,976
No, because more and more people leave.

657
01:05:18,436 --> 01:05:20,117
Like, I mean, more and more people leave.

658
01:05:20,117 --> 01:05:25,396
If only one demographic leaves, the Bitcoin demographic, then the anti-Bitcoin demographic is exceeded.

659
01:05:25,396 --> 01:05:26,036
It doesn't grow.

660
01:05:26,396 --> 01:05:26,976
It doesn't grow.

661
01:05:27,076 --> 01:05:29,516
Nobody's selling Bitcoin and joining the fiat system.

662
01:05:29,956 --> 01:05:31,416
It's only moving in one direction.

663
01:05:32,376 --> 01:05:42,836
But again, regardless, if those are the only people lobbying and talking to legislators and getting legislation passed, then even if it's shrinking, they're still the ones that control the laws, control the monopoly of violence.

664
01:05:42,836 --> 01:05:44,096
And we don't want that.

665
01:05:44,096 --> 01:05:56,356
And do you want Bitcoin to have friendly regulation if you want to not have to die on your farm because a drone army is coming to take its 90 percent unrealized gain on your crypto?

666
01:05:56,696 --> 01:05:58,496
Then you want to talk to the legislators, right?

667
01:06:00,496 --> 01:06:01,396
I don't.

668
01:06:01,416 --> 01:06:08,176
You don't have to be a lobbyist. You recognize a poor job lobbyist without Lucas having to be a lobbyist.

669
01:06:08,176 --> 01:06:24,676
I mean, that's one of the – like living outside the United States system, it becomes so clear that we have a legalized bribery system that benefits and reinforces the elite system to stay in place.

670
01:06:24,676 --> 01:06:31,916
But it's good that we have a legalized bribery system because if you don't, you have an unregulated illegal system that is just based on bribes and corruption.

671
01:06:32,117 --> 01:06:32,596
It's based on merit.

672
01:06:32,716 --> 01:06:35,276
I mean, so if you think that all these –

673
01:06:35,276 --> 01:06:35,956
It's based on power.

674
01:06:37,696 --> 01:06:38,956
In what sense, I guess?

675
01:06:39,096 --> 01:06:39,416
I mean –

676
01:06:39,416 --> 01:06:45,076
I mean, you know, new generation cartels got more power than the old one.

677
01:06:45,236 --> 01:06:46,196
And so they can take –

678
01:06:46,196 --> 01:06:48,656
So if you want to live in a cartel-controlled society by all means, that's a libertarian paradigm.

679
01:06:48,676 --> 01:06:50,576
We live in a cartel-controlled society.

680
01:06:50,796 --> 01:06:54,117
A government is a cartel that has legal violence.

681
01:06:54,117 --> 01:06:54,516
Right.

682
01:06:54,676 --> 01:06:58,536
They're the same thing. They just wear suits.

683
01:06:58,536 --> 01:07:04,796
Go to Mexico and live in Michoacan with like the level of violence.

684
01:07:05,996 --> 01:07:10,896
Try to negotiate with them, try to lobby them, try to go to them and try to get some of their policies changed.

685
01:07:11,276 --> 01:07:21,656
Like that's not going to work out. So, I mean, yes, the government is a monopoly on violence because throughout history you've discovered that just allowing violence to be controlled by private parties has not been good.

686
01:07:21,656 --> 01:07:26,416
Is democracy perfect? No. Is the nation state perfect? Nothing is, right?

687
01:07:26,416 --> 01:07:31,836
And so, I mean, you know, you can, if you want, stack sats privately.

688
01:07:31,836 --> 01:07:33,776
You can, if you want, leave the United States.

689
01:07:33,996 --> 01:07:35,176
Exit is always an option.

690
01:07:35,176 --> 01:07:39,656
But I disagree with Bologi that exit is the answer.

691
01:07:40,236 --> 01:07:48,056
I mean, it's good to have one needs to preserve always the option of exit, but it takes some combination of voice and loyalty to win.

692
01:07:48,396 --> 01:07:54,196
Like loyalty is the first principle of any sort of like victory in politics or society.

693
01:07:54,196 --> 01:07:57,637
One needs to be loyal to something bigger than themselves, bigger than Bitcoin even.

694
01:07:58,176 --> 01:08:04,776
And that's something that, you know, we need to really preserve and not think that – I just think that a lot of – I used to be a libertarian.

695
01:08:04,916 --> 01:08:06,176
I have libertarian impulses.

696
01:08:06,396 --> 01:08:15,376
But to the extent that libertarianism tries to get us to a cartel-controlled society by saying that government is functionally equivalent to that, I vastly disagree.

697
01:08:15,976 --> 01:08:17,236
What is bigger than Bitcoin?

698
01:08:17,616 --> 01:08:20,997
Are you saying that the U.S. government is bigger than Bitcoin?

699
01:08:20,997 --> 01:08:27,596
No, I'm saying things like belief in Bitcoin is one technological protocol that could fail or succeed.

700
01:08:27,977 --> 01:08:40,616
The principles that one has that lead them to Bitcoin are more important than Bitcoin, like belief in freedom, belief in certain forms of freedom to exchange with others.

701
01:08:41,756 --> 01:08:44,736
Family is more important than Bitcoin. Religion is more important than Bitcoin.

702
01:08:44,736 --> 01:08:53,457
These like foundational birthright type of God-given values or God-given rights or something like that.

703
01:08:53,576 --> 01:08:54,017
Liberties.

704
01:08:54,136 --> 01:08:55,417
Culture is more important than Bitcoin.

705
01:08:55,656 --> 01:08:57,176
Like society is more important than Bitcoin.

706
01:08:57,616 --> 01:09:10,776
If there was a future where there was no Bitcoin, but there was like still functioning society or a future where you have your Bitcoin, but the world is a wreck and nuclear bombs have gone off or whatever.

707
01:09:11,196 --> 01:09:12,196
To put a stark contrast.

708
01:09:12,436 --> 01:09:14,716
There's many more important things than Bitcoin for sure.

709
01:09:14,736 --> 01:09:17,036
Well, I didn't say more important. I said more powerful.

710
01:09:17,997 --> 01:09:19,877
There's many more powerful things for sure, too.

711
01:09:19,957 --> 01:09:21,356
It depends how you define powerful.

712
01:09:22,156 --> 01:09:33,736
But the munificent road, though, doesn't, I don't think, depend on acknowledging that one way or the other, Bitcoin is the most powerful thing.

713
01:09:33,736 --> 01:09:39,256
It just kind of acknowledges that for whatever reason, Bitcoin is monetizing for many reasons.

714
01:09:39,536 --> 01:09:43,676
And it's monetizing as a scarce asset for all the reasons that it has.

715
01:09:43,676 --> 01:09:48,836
people's ability to self-custody, to transact peer-to-peer and all these reasons.

716
01:09:49,477 --> 01:09:58,116
And so how can we integrate that into society in a way that the restrictive outcome is unpalatable to most people?

717
01:09:58,377 --> 01:10:00,656
Because like businesses are now pro-Bitcoin.

718
01:10:00,816 --> 01:10:05,696
A lot of individuals are holders of Bitcoin or interact with it daily in some way.

719
01:10:05,696 --> 01:10:15,776
They might not even realize because it's so woven into the financial system that the thought of regulating it becomes like a too big to fail, turn the bank's argument back on themselves, right?

720
01:10:17,596 --> 01:10:33,556
I guess I just think about this as like, so my approach on social media, I remember in like 2017 or 18, I realized that because I used to be one of those guys that would go back and forth with people and like promote, oh, I'm going to put my ideas and you're going to hear your ideas.

721
01:10:33,556 --> 01:10:36,676
And it would be over everything from politics to football.

722
01:10:36,676 --> 01:10:38,296
And it was absurd.

723
01:10:38,296 --> 01:10:39,536
And I got riled up.

724
01:10:40,716 --> 01:10:41,477
Riled up.

725
01:10:41,477 --> 01:10:42,917
That's what they do on social media.

726
01:10:43,156 --> 01:10:43,336
Yeah.

727
01:10:43,457 --> 01:10:47,556
And then I realized, I was like, okay, so there's three options I have here.

728
01:10:47,676 --> 01:10:53,076
And one is, like, I can agree with them and I can give them my like and my retweet and my repost.

729
01:10:53,156 --> 01:10:56,877
And I can say this and we can be on the side and I can signal that I'm with them.

730
01:10:56,877 --> 01:11:09,616
Two is that I can fight them and that I can engage and turn it into this like where on your Facebook wall, there's 37 comments of you and one moron going back and forth.

731
01:11:10,196 --> 01:11:14,276
And the third is that I can just – that was on KU Football, by the way.

732
01:11:14,536 --> 01:11:17,057
Well, the you and one moron framework is pretty generous.

733
01:11:17,977 --> 01:11:19,576
Yeah, that's two morons.

734
01:11:20,296 --> 01:11:21,536
Two morons on social media.

735
01:11:21,856 --> 01:11:25,036
If you're debating with a moron, that's a mirror right there.

736
01:11:25,036 --> 01:11:28,776
And the third is that I can just like go outside.

737
01:11:29,196 --> 01:11:29,436
Yes.

738
01:11:29,676 --> 01:11:32,877
And so that I think like that's what I'm saying.

739
01:11:32,977 --> 01:11:52,256
Like I think that I frame it in that type of way where to me the munificent scenario is a redefining of the capacity of the United States government where they return to the idea of what is a government actually supposed to do.

740
01:11:52,256 --> 01:12:08,057
And I think it's there to defend property rights and it's there to defend borders. And beyond that, I don't think that it really has a whole lot of true – I don't think that it really has a whole lot of true responsibilities.

741
01:12:08,057 --> 01:12:38,036
No, that's the Satoshi Papers project, too, is a government-backed accounting project.

742
01:12:38,057 --> 01:12:47,176
and they benefit and the people suffer and see that the continuation of these things,

743
01:12:47,176 --> 01:12:50,436
it only hangs us further out.

744
01:12:50,656 --> 01:12:53,656
It only tightens the noose.

745
01:12:54,696 --> 01:13:03,457
So, yeah, I think the munificent scenario in my estimation is like a top-down redefinition

746
01:13:03,457 --> 01:13:07,377
of the United States government and what it does.

747
01:13:08,057 --> 01:13:15,417
Yeah. I see what you're saying. You define munificent as total victory for your libertarian principles, whereas the author—

748
01:13:15,417 --> 01:13:17,816
Not libertarian. Well, maybe libertarian.

749
01:13:17,816 --> 01:13:32,036
I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. I'm just saying the author's definition of munificent is more open, where it's like kind of acknowledging you're still going to have political dissension on essential topics. Like, is an entitlement system a good system?

750
01:13:32,036 --> 01:13:48,417
Like his is kind of a compromise. And we talked really about like how civil discourse is so important and then how that might be embedded in the potential of a magnificent outcome is just the ability to disagree with people but to still move forward to say I think entitlements are bad.

751
01:13:48,417 --> 01:13:55,596
I think entitlements are a manifestation of like violence toward the individual because it depends on state power and its monopoly of violence.

752
01:13:55,716 --> 01:14:03,877
But then to still work with people who are like, no, I think entitlements are necessary to protect the sick, the weak and the elderly, things like that.

753
01:14:03,877 --> 01:14:18,936
So that's why OVIC at one point suggests that entitlements might – this is based on some research – might work themselves out better if they're means-tested and if there is competition among providers, which is kind of a pseudo-private system.

754
01:14:18,936 --> 01:14:40,336
So maybe compromise is, you know, that's the core maybe of the project and the magnificent outcome doesn't kind of define itself based on total victory for any one political party or system or ideology, more so that we just don't utterly crash ourselves into the reefs of a dying currency and an attempt to staunch the bleeding through financial repression.

755
01:14:40,336 --> 01:14:54,236
I mean, my dad's on Social Security right now, and I would certainly argue that the entitlements that he receives are not doing hardly anything to help the sick, weak, and elderly, of which he is all three.

756
01:14:54,977 --> 01:15:04,156
You know, that it's this survivorship bias idea that, oh, because you get a check in the mail every month, that that is a good thing.

757
01:15:04,656 --> 01:15:07,576
And again, we have to look at all of this stuff relative.

758
01:15:07,576 --> 01:15:24,997
And the relative is that if you had been able to take that money and to put it into effectively any other investment, that you would be doing better than having participated in the Social Security system.

759
01:15:24,997 --> 01:15:32,256
And that just because you get like it's the amount and the buying power of that is really what's determining it.

760
01:15:32,457 --> 01:15:37,656
And, you know, right now it can pay for groceries and maybe gas.

761
01:15:37,816 --> 01:15:38,756
Like that's about it.

762
01:15:38,936 --> 01:15:49,477
So, yeah, I think that Ovik makes a really good point when he like, yeah, we maybe this gives us the power to renegotiate those systems.

763
01:15:49,477 --> 01:15:57,917
means testing, I think is, you know, I continually go back to the, I think it's in the FFA motto or

764
01:15:57,917 --> 01:16:02,736
one of those is like, I believe the future farmers of America. Well, it's not anymore.

765
01:16:02,736 --> 01:16:07,477
It used to be, it used to be now. It's just, they just call it FFA. They literally took out

766
01:16:07,477 --> 01:16:12,196
what the, what the acronym stands for, but it used to be, but in the, in the creed or the motto,

767
01:16:12,336 --> 01:16:19,196
it's, I believe in less need for charity and more of it when needed. And so institutionalizing and

768
01:16:19,196 --> 01:16:28,036
regulating and enforcing what is in one way seen as a charitable donation.

769
01:16:29,156 --> 01:16:35,176
I think that the manifestation of that into the real world is that we end up,

770
01:16:35,756 --> 01:16:39,417
the people that it's intended to benefit are the ones who end up suffering the most.

771
01:16:39,856 --> 01:16:45,536
And so the means testing is, I think it's a great way, means testing, you know, where it's like,

772
01:16:45,536 --> 01:16:48,896
hey, if you're rich, you probably don't need to get a social security check.

773
01:16:48,896 --> 01:16:51,557
But if you're poor, maybe the rich people can help you out.

774
01:16:51,656 --> 01:16:53,076
And I do kind of like that.

775
01:16:53,196 --> 01:16:53,836
All right.

776
01:16:53,936 --> 01:16:55,776
We've cured you of libertarians once and for all.

777
01:16:55,997 --> 01:16:58,676
So we've got you a magnificent outcome as a sure word.

778
01:16:58,676 --> 01:16:59,596
I just said maybe.

779
01:16:59,776 --> 01:17:02,176
I didn't say that you go to prison if you don't do it.

780
01:17:02,336 --> 01:17:04,096
I said that you can be encouraged.

781
01:17:04,256 --> 01:17:07,216
If you can get a libertarian to maybe, I define that as total victory.

782
01:17:07,436 --> 01:17:14,596
Because if you can get the ideologically pure and unsullied to sully themselves with a bit of the real world, it's a beautiful thing.

783
01:17:16,116 --> 01:17:18,196
So I wanted to know one other thing, too.

784
01:17:18,196 --> 01:17:19,836
pro-Bitcoin businesses.

785
01:17:20,436 --> 01:17:21,396
What can we do

786
01:17:21,396 --> 01:17:22,596
like day to day

787
01:17:22,596 --> 01:17:23,776
to make this an outcome?

788
01:17:23,957 --> 01:17:24,877
There's a very small thing

789
01:17:24,877 --> 01:17:25,997
that all of us can do.

790
01:17:26,596 --> 01:17:27,196
Our mutual friend,

791
01:17:27,276 --> 01:17:28,497
Chris Winski, does this

792
01:17:28,497 --> 01:17:30,296
and anybody can do it.

793
01:17:30,356 --> 01:17:32,116
Next time you're at any business,

794
01:17:32,276 --> 01:17:33,616
just the first thing you say

795
01:17:33,616 --> 01:17:34,596
when it comes time to pay

796
01:17:34,596 --> 01:17:34,997
is just say,

797
01:17:35,076 --> 01:17:35,896
oh, can I pay in Bitcoin?

798
01:17:36,256 --> 01:17:37,557
And they say yes or no.

799
01:17:37,736 --> 01:17:38,417
And fine.

800
01:17:38,596 --> 01:17:41,156
So maybe they say no,

801
01:17:41,377 --> 01:17:42,096
but then they're curious.

802
01:17:42,256 --> 01:17:43,276
Maybe it leads to a conversation.

803
01:17:43,997 --> 01:17:44,836
And so if everybody

804
01:17:44,836 --> 01:17:45,957
asks that question,

805
01:17:46,017 --> 01:17:46,877
it's a simple question.

806
01:17:46,977 --> 01:17:48,136
It requires no effort.

807
01:17:48,196 --> 01:17:53,196
It's except for like you got to put yourself out there a little bit because you kind of like got to say maybe a weird thing in a social encounter.

808
01:17:53,856 --> 01:17:55,536
And so it's difficult.

809
01:17:56,156 --> 01:18:00,477
It's a little bit of friction, but it's something we can all walk out here and do today.

810
01:18:00,596 --> 01:18:01,316
You get a haircut.

811
01:18:01,457 --> 01:18:02,216
Can I pay in Bitcoin?

812
01:18:02,536 --> 01:18:03,676
You know, something like that.

813
01:18:03,836 --> 01:18:06,676
This is back to the Charlie Kirk thing, like the power of public discourse.

814
01:18:06,816 --> 01:18:08,536
All we're trying to do is have a conversation.

815
01:18:09,136 --> 01:18:15,276
And that it turns out that when you have that conversation, that that is more powerful than anything else that you could do.

816
01:18:15,276 --> 01:18:20,176
So, and yeah, it's just, it's very simple.

817
01:18:20,336 --> 01:18:21,236
It's very easy.

818
01:18:21,596 --> 01:18:23,396
It takes nothing away.

819
01:18:23,596 --> 01:18:24,576
You want to do it.

820
01:18:24,716 --> 01:18:27,017
I'd rather pay in Bitcoin than I would in fiat.

821
01:18:27,017 --> 01:18:27,336
Yeah.

822
01:18:28,256 --> 01:18:29,957
You know, it's easier.

823
01:18:30,877 --> 01:18:36,696
Now that I know how to use that system, I realized that it's 10 times, you know, it's

824
01:18:36,696 --> 01:18:40,116
the difference between learning how to ride a horse and riding a bicycle.

825
01:18:40,417 --> 01:18:41,816
One of them is a lot easier.

826
01:18:41,997 --> 01:18:43,296
The bicycle is not going to kick you.

827
01:18:43,296 --> 01:18:45,336
So, you know, it's not going to have a bad attitude.

828
01:18:45,557 --> 01:18:45,997
It's not going to break.

829
01:18:46,076 --> 01:18:52,036
Like, once you get on it and you write it, you literally never forget how to do it again.

830
01:18:52,356 --> 01:18:54,017
So, yeah, you can just ask.

831
01:18:54,336 --> 01:18:54,676
That's great.

832
01:18:54,977 --> 01:19:02,196
The other thing I was going to say is that Ivan, Ivan Makadonsky, like, you can do what he does, which is like, I'm just going to go.

833
01:19:02,656 --> 01:19:06,457
And I'm going to take your phone and I'm going to set it up for you.

834
01:19:06,517 --> 01:19:07,517
And here you go.

835
01:19:07,596 --> 01:19:08,816
And now you can do it.

836
01:19:08,816 --> 01:19:36,396
No, and help people. I think that's what Chris does too. So say the conversation leads to no, but I'd like to. If you educate yourself enough to where you can help somebody set up some sort of rudimentary wallet, and then, yeah, you can pay on the spot. And so maybe that's the next thing we need to, Bitcoiners need to self-educate in how to have the easiest way to help another party set up and transact on the spot. How can you do that? And so just have that.

837
01:19:36,396 --> 01:19:39,736
What would your choice be if you were going to set me up right now?

838
01:19:39,736 --> 01:19:40,636
I'm done. I couldn't do it.

839
01:19:40,736 --> 01:19:43,316
That's right. I'm a failure as a person and a Bitcoiner.

840
01:19:43,676 --> 01:19:46,816
So when I say educate, when I say we, I'm always saying I.

841
01:19:47,097 --> 01:19:48,176
Like we need to do something.

842
01:19:48,377 --> 01:19:49,716
It's really just me trying to defeat responsibility.

843
01:19:49,716 --> 01:19:50,716
This is like my blog, right?

844
01:19:50,736 --> 01:19:52,716
It's like letters I write to myself.

845
01:19:52,856 --> 01:19:56,477
Like I'm not writing a Substack post in order to educate other people.

846
01:19:56,776 --> 01:20:01,597
I'm merely doing it in order to try and beat into my own stupid brain

847
01:20:01,597 --> 01:20:03,196
these lessons that I want to know.

848
01:20:03,336 --> 01:20:03,576
Yeah.

849
01:20:03,856 --> 01:20:04,477
I'd use Strike.

850
01:20:04,917 --> 01:20:06,156
That's the one I use right now.

851
01:20:06,156 --> 01:20:10,477
strike or swan swan's really good and it's good you can like literally take somebody else's cell

852
01:20:10,477 --> 01:20:14,356
phone in two or three steps have it on their phone in a non-invasive way something that they

853
01:20:14,356 --> 01:20:18,576
can then control easy enough and then hand it back to them and this is where i'll abandon some

854
01:20:18,576 --> 01:20:22,036
of my libertarian principles and i'll say that it's actually really good that we have these

855
01:20:22,036 --> 01:20:28,517
platforms strike and swan and um because they make i i know that it's a hot wallet i know that

856
01:20:28,517 --> 01:20:35,256
it's not self-custody but it it makes it easy for somebody to engage in that process and not

857
01:20:35,256 --> 01:20:37,477
not lose it instantly.

858
01:20:37,477 --> 01:20:40,856
Like the really, I can't remember what the comedian is.

859
01:20:41,356 --> 01:20:47,097
Some comedian was famously gifted a thousand Bitcoin by Max Kaiser and then lost it.

860
01:20:47,316 --> 01:20:47,496
Right.

861
01:20:47,836 --> 01:20:50,517
And so he would be enormously wealthy now.

862
01:20:50,636 --> 01:20:56,417
But if somebody set you up on strike and you had, you know, a thousand dollars in there

863
01:20:56,417 --> 01:21:03,436
or on or on Swan, because they are these exchanges, even if you lose your password,

864
01:21:03,436 --> 01:21:06,057
you're going to have access to be able to get back to it.

865
01:21:06,196 --> 01:21:08,057
And so that is a vote.

866
01:21:08,597 --> 01:21:10,156
I'm trying to put myself out.

867
01:21:10,196 --> 01:21:11,736
I'm trying to move towards the center.

868
01:21:11,996 --> 01:21:15,076
I'm trying to say that I support these companies

869
01:21:15,076 --> 01:21:17,917
because what they're doing is they're making it easier

870
01:21:17,917 --> 01:21:21,256
to onboard people into this environment.

871
01:21:21,656 --> 01:21:24,557
Yeah, and Obik talks about that and talks about that in his podcast too.

872
01:21:24,676 --> 01:21:26,917
He's not an anti-ETF person as some are.

873
01:21:27,636 --> 01:21:31,936
These products are types of L2 solutions in a sense.

874
01:21:31,936 --> 01:21:36,036
They're just like the layer is off the blockchain altogether in a way.

875
01:21:36,396 --> 01:21:40,356
And so, yeah, I think they make it easy for otherwise people who would not be inclined or able.

876
01:21:40,716 --> 01:21:41,136
I like it.

877
01:21:41,496 --> 01:21:42,436
Yeah, I'm a fan.

878
01:21:42,756 --> 01:21:42,877
Yeah.

879
01:21:42,977 --> 01:21:44,396
So then they fight you.

880
01:21:44,597 --> 01:21:45,636
Then Lucas and I fought.

881
01:21:45,716 --> 01:21:46,656
Then we resolved it.

882
01:21:46,756 --> 01:21:48,276
And we're now 100%.

883
01:21:48,276 --> 01:21:53,656
You know, the munificent timeline, I think the takeaway for me is it's the only timeline.

884
01:21:54,196 --> 01:21:56,716
You know, you don't live your life.

885
01:21:57,296 --> 01:21:59,896
You maybe prepare for the worst, but hope for the best.

886
01:21:59,896 --> 01:22:03,496
and hope is what your true effort and action is going for.

887
01:22:03,597 --> 01:22:06,396
Again, like, that's one of the things

888
01:22:06,396 --> 01:22:08,336
that I really took away from the Charlie Kirk assassination,

889
01:22:08,716 --> 01:22:10,816
seeing what one person can build

890
01:22:10,816 --> 01:22:12,276
and the change that they can have,

891
01:22:12,457 --> 01:22:15,836
aside from, again, any sort of political views involved therein.

892
01:22:15,896 --> 01:22:18,036
It's just that if you hope for a better future,

893
01:22:18,597 --> 01:22:20,996
the possibility to enact that future

894
01:22:20,996 --> 01:22:23,957
is much more within our grasp than we suppose.

895
01:22:23,957 --> 01:22:33,377
Suppose. So, yeah, don't don't let percentage chances. It's not over till you're dead and we're not dead yet.

896
01:22:33,377 --> 01:22:54,536
Yeah, you live in a world that is the creation of your own mind. You know, your perception is your reality and what you believe will happen will happen. And so you have the opportunity to participate in not just the future, but in this very moment right now in an optimistic manner.

897
01:22:54,536 --> 01:23:02,877
And you can look at it as good things are going to happen, and that's going to make you more likely to take the action that leads to good things.

898
01:23:02,877 --> 01:23:09,457
Or you can look at it as bad things are going to happen, and that's going to make you more likely to take the action that leads to bad things.

899
01:23:09,676 --> 01:23:10,796
So, yeah, I do.

900
01:23:10,936 --> 01:23:13,276
I believe in the munificent scenario.

901
01:23:14,656 --> 01:23:19,356
And I love that it's your view as well.

902
01:23:19,736 --> 01:23:20,977
I think that's fantastic.

903
01:23:21,236 --> 01:23:21,877
Well, let's do it, man.

904
01:23:22,036 --> 01:23:23,116
All right, let's get out of here.

905
01:23:23,116 --> 01:23:28,957
We're going to go back to the Then They Forget About You part and hit end on this and forget about it.

906
01:23:28,996 --> 01:23:29,917
Go back to living our lives.

907
01:23:30,017 --> 01:23:30,396
Sounds good.

908
01:23:30,557 --> 01:23:31,017
Have a good day.

909
01:23:31,136 --> 01:23:31,517
Yeah, you too.