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Who's going to buy their T-bills if they do that?

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Right?

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The US government requires buyers of their debt.

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And the fastest growing buyer of debt is Tether right now.

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In fact, if Bitcoin price goes over the next 10 years to a million dollars,

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the T-bill buying, the short-dated T-bill buying is more than enough to

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replace China who have stopped buying the T-bills.

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So the US government debt is reliant on stable coins growing.

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So I don't think they're going to freeze that because that's kind of committing suicide on their debt.

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They could do it.

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But that would be an absolute crisis, like absolute crisis, a fall of a nation state.

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That could happen.

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Yeah.

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But, you know, like if that happens, the nation state's going down.

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That could happen.

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All views expressed by the host or guests are solely their own opinions.

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Nothing stated in this podcast should be considered a specific endorsement

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to make any particular investment or follow any specific strategy.

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Willy, welcome back to All in Bitcoin in beautiful Florence.

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Part one was just the beginning, so here we are, part two.

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Time to go deeper into you, Winomics and Bitcoin.

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Are you ready?

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Yes, I am.

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Welcome to Florence.

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So, born in Hong Kong to Chinese parents,

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raised in New Zealand, nomad for many, many years.

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Who are you?

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yeah i think um when you're born and into one culture and raised to another

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um you get a perspective um obviously i i mean back when i was a kid being grown up in new zealand

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there was a lot of racism actually there was a lot of hangover from

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world war ii because the grandfathers would say we would fight the japanese and

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And so I think there's like definitely it wasn't a very friendly upbringing.

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You didn't feel welcome, I think, is the thing.

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And so maybe that made me somewhat of a rebel.

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And if you look at my later life, you know, I spent many years traveling the world.

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and I think when you're born in one place

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and you're multi-generational in that place

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you feel like this is your place to be

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you have these deep deep roots

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and I know for myself I don't feel that

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I mean when I go to New Zealand I feel like that's my place

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but I don't have the multi-generational aspect

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which some of my friends do

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and you can see just how deep those roots are

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Whereas I am really happy to live in different places and potentially even stay and let go of where I was born.

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It's not really a big thing for me.

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And so I think that shaped me a lot.

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And if you look at, or if I look at my path through traveling to different countries, I call it me reminders.

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When you're in one place all the time, you're always reminded of me, who you are.

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And it's like you might even say the classic cliche is when adults go back to their parents' house.

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They're treated like a 15-year-old or 12-year-old kid, even though they might be 30 or whatever.

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And it's really hard to break that mold because you go into this unconscious habits of this behavior.

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And so when you're in this new environment, I think you can reinvent yourself a lot.

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I think that happened with me as well.

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And my trajectory after I left New Zealand was to start businesses.

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And I think it's easy to do that because you see opportunity, you see new things.

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There's no hang ups on the past, what you can and cannot do.

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Well, these are probably self-imposed.

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So, yeah, I think that was the outcome of it.

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being okay to travel, be anywhere, see new environments,

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and not have sort of a hard lock on the mold that you were born into.

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Yeah.

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Do you see yourself as spiritual or religious?

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Do you follow any religion in particular?

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I think there should be like 8 billion religions in the world,

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because I think everyone has their own path.

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But the practices are good, you know.

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I was born into Christianity.

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Let's say not born, but being in New Zealand, that was the thing.

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I went to church with my parents and so forth.

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And so there was that Christian side.

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When I was burnt out running a startup that was growing very quickly, but it was a very tough burnout for me, I needed to find some sort of grounding, I think.

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And, you know, I did a Vipassana meditation, which is a Buddhist.

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I did a yogic practice, a breath practice that was probably Hindu roots, you'd say.

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And so I found that, like, all of them are grounded on something that's very, very beneficial.

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And I think the secret is to look at where the common ground is and how it all works, because it should make sense.

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and I think everyone's path is also very specific to them

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and on what works.

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So that's my view of it.

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I wouldn't say I'm Christian.

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I wouldn't say I'm Buddhist.

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I wouldn't say I'm Hindu.

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What do you think is the common ground among all of them?

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Something bigger than us?

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Yeah, I mean, I would say that.

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I mean, I could say it in a very cliche way

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is that they all point to love.

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They're like all paths lead to love.

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And you might say that's something bigger than us.

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And maybe you could say, well, there's no real separation between all of us.

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And so I think that they all point that way.

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And they're just different ways of expressing it.

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And the thing is, you can get into these conflicts over, you know, this path is the right path.

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And that is the right path.

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And you get, you know, into wars over it.

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How important do you think is to grow strong local Bitcoin communities?

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I mean, Bitcoin, where it is today, is from local community.

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And it was everything in the early days.

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And even today, it moves the world.

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If you look at, say, the Bitcoin Beach initiative,

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that was community-run and that spread out.

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And it changed that country.

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Ultimately, it got to the president.

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And now you've got the first nation state

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that really, truly made policies to adopt it.

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And, you know, the president's a Bitcoiner.

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What role do you see yourself playing in it?

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Yeah, you know, up till now, my role has been to advocate for it.

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And so before COVID, you know, I would go to meetups.

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I've always made a point of going to meetups to be part of the communities.

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Still do, right?

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I'm not a community builder, you know.

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I really enjoy the community.

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I think I like to visit and being alongside and supporting that is good.

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In terms of my role with community, that's a different story.

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What's your greatest professional creation?

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How would you measure that, CK?

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I mean, that's to be judged from sometime in the future, I think.

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My first startup was to put mobile email on the first generation of smartphones.

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And I thought that was pretty cool in the day.

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That was 2002, 2003.

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I thought that was great.

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And, you know, moving into Bitcoin, I mean, I've always been drawn to the next thing, you know, the future facing things.

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And what excites me are the early stuff, right?

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So I was really into 8-bit computers when they were coming out because you plug them into TVs and they were like magical little things, right, back in that era.

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and mobile was back then really rough

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and not ready for prime time

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but that in itself was very exciting to me

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and when I saw Bitcoin it was the same thing

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it was so rough and not ready for prime time

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and it was interesting

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and so my contribution in Bitcoin

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has been really to nut out the on-chain analysis

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and wrap models around that

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and be the first to sort of create market models

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around all this data coming off the blockchain.

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Obviously that now turned into running a series of hedge funds but I don think of the hedge funds as the great thing I think the great discoveries was contributing to the knowledge of analysis on the blockchain

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I think that's probably more important than the mobile stuff because mobile's gone way ahead, right?

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And I think the on-chain analysis is always going to be foundational to reading the markets within Bitcoin and altcoins.

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Okay, so that's it.

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With everything you do, investing, running funds, publishing, advising, analyzing markets, what does an ordinary day look like for you?

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Could you walk me through it?

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Yeah, I don't really have many ordinary days in terms of a strict routine.

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Because right now, for example, the whole family is traveling around the world.

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and other times we might be in a base

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and I'll wake up and then

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wake up the kids, all this sort of stuff

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and then actually I will then go to

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my computer set up

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I will check the structure of the market

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for about 5-10 minutes

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if there's anything, any problems there

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I would like, you know, adjust

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my trades, that sort of thing.

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Once the family's sort of gotten to their rhythm,

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I'll go in and tackle the day, right?

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And that could be anything

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because there's so many balls in the air.

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You know, I could be working on the hedge funds,

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the next companies that we're working on,

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the publications.

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There's just a list and that changes every single day,

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every single week in different priorities.

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And then, you know, jump on Zoom calls

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if we need to do specific IC, you know, investment committees to run the funds.

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So it's different.

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Sometimes I'll be writing software to work on a model to analyze market.

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Sometimes I might be just a lot of time in chat with different people.

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And so it just varies.

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And so that will just go through the day.

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I'll take breaks, you know, sometimes I'll take over with the kids and so forth.

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But there is no real routine or structure.

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and you like it that way?

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it's the way it is at the moment

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I think I would die in a totally structured environment

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I'm not a soldier

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and I would like a little bit more routine

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a little bit more of a base to launch from

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but right now we're traveling around the world

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and it's a little bit less structured

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do you see yourself traveling for a while?

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you know our family loves traveling

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but like our next thing is to

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like we're saying

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established into a good community and like the kids are getting to the point where we

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we need to do that as well so i feel like that's it's going to be a more restful place okay so

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you mentioned that you're running three funds if i remember correctly but you are also creating a

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new one yeah yeah so i founded um crest with um cmcc global in hong kong yeah three and a half

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years ago and that runs three funds right and that that's a it's a fund of funds operations so

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that's relatively simple you bring in capital investors and we allocate and um and we generate

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yield we can generate yield on us dollars we can generate yield on bitcoin and we have an

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institutional product that is in partnership with seize banking group um in switzerland and so that

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whole process has been very, very robust and we can build an institutional product.

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And that's been a really big learning for me.

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And so now we're in the process of creating Super Collateral Fund.

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That's a whole new business and it's in partnership with Debify and we're going to lend

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fiat US dollar to Bitcoiners whilst the Bitcoiner retains their private key.

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So there's no hanky-panky funny business going on with their Bitcoins, which is what we've seen

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in past cycles where it just moves and gets rehypothecated, never mind whether there's

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promises or not. This excites me because it empowers Bitcoiners to not need to sell their

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Bitcoin, they can borrow against them and they have a private key.

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So they guarantee that those coins aren't going to move and they get to borrow fiat,

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which is obviously debasing towards zero every year.

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And so that's the premise of it.

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And the fund will raise from traditional sources like traditional investors and ultimately

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traditional markets.

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Can retail invest?

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Do you need to be a business in order to borrow or lend through your fund?

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If you want to borrow it against your Bitcoin, you know, you can be retail, you jump on Debify and you can accept a loan offer.

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We are lenders, so we will offer loans at different interest rates, different maturities, different LTV ratios.

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now we will be sourcing capital from investors,

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professional investors.

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They're not retail investors.

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They have to be higher net worth and qualified investors

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or they will be institutions.

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So we're tapping the larger liquidity pools

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and then lending it to Bitcoin,

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which is retail and also institutions

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that may want to borrow as well.

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So I could borrow from you?

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I cannot invest?

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If you're a qualified investor.

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What does it mean?

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What do I need to be to be a qualified investor?

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It depends on the jurisdiction, right?

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And so this fund, like many, are domiciled in Caymans.

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And I believe the minimum is $100,000 investment.

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Okay.

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That, I think, is sufficient for a qualification to be qualified.

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I need to double check with the legal guys.

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But, you know.

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So if I have $100,000 or Bitcoin and I want to invest with you.

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If you want fiat that you get a yield from,

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and obviously we're going to be getting that yield

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from Bitcoiners that are paying interest to the investor.

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That's how it works.

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That's for the super collateral fund, right?

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That's for lending against collateralized Bitcoin.

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What's the deal?

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Generally, it's a fee based, a management fee

241
00:15:58,660 --> 00:16:00,720
and a performance fee.

242
00:16:00,900 --> 00:16:03,020
We haven't established exactly what we'll charge yet,

243
00:16:03,020 --> 00:16:07,120
but we will lend out to the borrowers

244
00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:09,440
and we take our fees and then you get thrust.

245
00:16:10,140 --> 00:16:13,840
There's nuances around how do you get a higher return

246
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:16,020
by lending yet to be seen.

247
00:16:16,500 --> 00:16:19,600
There's ways in which we can get a higher yield.

248
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:24,380
And so in this fund, we're going to give you yield on cash.

249
00:16:24,580 --> 00:16:26,360
So we're tapping traditional investors

250
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:30,860
who are used to getting maybe 10% by investing in stocks

251
00:16:30,860 --> 00:16:32,720
and we might be able to get them the same.

252
00:16:33,020 --> 00:16:38,560
And it would be interesting for me to lend you my cash during the bear market.

253
00:16:38,820 --> 00:16:39,240
That's correct.

254
00:16:39,300 --> 00:16:42,020
And to borrow against my Bitcoin in the bull market.

255
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:43,440
It depends.

256
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:49,040
I mean, everyone has their different thesis or whatever you call it on how they manage their money.

257
00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:49,660
Right.

258
00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:59,580
And so for someone like yourself, where you've just mentioned you might want to be in Bitcoin during the bull market and then you want to be in cash.

259
00:16:59,580 --> 00:17:03,920
and then you may invest into the fund, right?

260
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:05,320
So if you're a qualified investor

261
00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:09,420
and we would lend it out, get a yield

262
00:17:09,420 --> 00:17:14,820
and then when you want to like redeem your capital,

263
00:17:15,140 --> 00:17:18,840
your cash and buy Bitcoin at the bottom of the bear market ideally,

264
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:20,660
then sure, that would work.

265
00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,460
But, you know, there's also hodlers out there, right?

266
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:25,340
That never intend on selling.

267
00:17:25,540 --> 00:17:28,280
Maybe they're going to be taxed or capital gains if they sell.

268
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:30,500
So they're never going to sell the assets.

269
00:17:30,660 --> 00:17:31,520
That's the other path.

270
00:17:31,660 --> 00:17:37,040
Like, you just hold your Bitcoins till it goes to infinity, whatever.

271
00:17:37,300 --> 00:17:38,000
You're never going to sell.

272
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,420
You're going to give it to your kids like you're never selling.

273
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:44,960
And you're going to just use it as collateral to borrow fiat.

274
00:17:45,420 --> 00:17:47,440
And fiat's going to get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper.

275
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:49,020
So that's another valid strategy.

276
00:17:49,460 --> 00:17:53,380
So if they want to borrow fiat, we will take Bitcoin as collateral.

277
00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:59,000
You know, up till now, borrowing, you'd need to front your house as collateral.

278
00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:01,420
You would need to front your stocks portfolio.

279
00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:03,440
We will accept Bitcoin.

280
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:10,140
And that is the latest stuff that's happening in the traditional finance world where Bitcoin is accepted as collateral.

281
00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:20,120
The difference is we will take native on-chain Bitcoin with our borrowers having a private key.

282
00:18:20,220 --> 00:18:21,000
And that's unique.

283
00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:24,000
Very few operators are doing that.

284
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:29,000
And still there are some risks as a borrower or as a lender?

285
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:35,000
If you're borrowing Bitcoin, and in this particular case,

286
00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:38,000
your core risk is liquidation.

287
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:52,800
So if you going to borrow a lot against the collateral you fronted If Bitcoin price drops then you get liquidated And so my recommendation is to use a very low LTV

288
00:18:54,300 --> 00:18:54,740
How low?

289
00:18:56,260 --> 00:18:57,040
Pretty low.

290
00:18:57,500 --> 00:19:00,500
I'd say if you're a hodler

291
00:19:00,500 --> 00:19:02,220
and you want to hodl through all the bear markets,

292
00:19:02,340 --> 00:19:05,500
I think you'd need to do an LTV of 10% or less

293
00:19:05,500 --> 00:19:09,760
because Bitcoin dropped 85%, right?

294
00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:17,900
If you're an LTV of 50%, right, which a lot of loans are, if Bitcoin drops by roughly 50%, you're going to get liquidated.

295
00:19:18,060 --> 00:19:20,540
And we know Bitcoin drops by more than 50% historically.

296
00:19:21,140 --> 00:19:25,140
So I wouldn't recommend using high LTVs.

297
00:19:25,420 --> 00:19:31,340
If you're a savvy, you know, you have hedge fund managers that are like, I need to borrow fiat to lever up the trade.

298
00:19:31,460 --> 00:19:32,940
They might borrow for one month.

299
00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:34,020
That's a valid use case.

300
00:19:34,020 --> 00:19:39,220
They might use a very, very high LTV because they're confident in betting on the market.

301
00:19:39,220 --> 00:19:41,100
that's up to them.

302
00:19:42,620 --> 00:19:43,800
So that's a risk.

303
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,200
If you're using other types of platforms

304
00:19:47,200 --> 00:19:50,100
where you're actually giving them the Bitcoins

305
00:19:50,100 --> 00:19:52,720
then obviously you're up for a lot more risk.

306
00:19:52,980 --> 00:19:54,680
Even if they're legally saying

307
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:56,680
that they're not going to re-hypothecate it

308
00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:59,600
those coins are given to an operator

309
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,860
and are those operations tight?

310
00:20:02,020 --> 00:20:03,640
Who's holding those private keys?

311
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:04,980
Can they be hacked?

312
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:06,680
Can they be...

313
00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,320
maybe they're incompetent.

314
00:20:09,500 --> 00:20:12,000
Maybe it's just one person holding the key.

315
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:18,320
Usually you want to have this institution show you

316
00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,220
and demonstrate through a due diligence process

317
00:20:21,220 --> 00:20:23,200
that it's institutional grade,

318
00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:26,060
that how is the custody handled and so forth.

319
00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:29,060
And you want to make sure that those coins are never going to move.

320
00:20:29,580 --> 00:20:32,500
And they might do proof of reserves,

321
00:20:32,500 --> 00:20:35,580
but still you've lost control at that point.

322
00:20:35,580 --> 00:20:44,960
And then there's other operators that will actually say, to give you such a good lending rate, we will actually move those coins and rehypothecate it.

323
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:54,620
You don't know what's happening with those coins, but people are using those coins either as collateral to trade the markets, get a higher yield and so forth, and they're making up extra profit on that.

324
00:20:55,540 --> 00:21:00,860
So yeah, the risks start to climb depending on the type of loans.

325
00:21:00,860 --> 00:21:04,620
in this type of lending where you have a private key,

326
00:21:04,780 --> 00:21:06,560
you know that that's not going to happen.

327
00:21:06,820 --> 00:21:08,880
The risk is really your liquidation.

328
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:14,180
What happens if we go bust, the platform goes bust,

329
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:15,520
the other key holders go bust?

330
00:21:15,680 --> 00:21:19,680
Well, it's multi-sig, and then you could do a recovery process

331
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:21,920
with the software to get your coins back.

332
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:27,680
If like Debify goes bust, then the lender us

333
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,120
or the third-party custodian is still there

334
00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:33,080
and we can sign it and resolve the issue.

335
00:21:33,660 --> 00:21:37,020
If we go bust, same thing, you know,

336
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,280
and the custodian goes bust, same thing,

337
00:21:40,360 --> 00:21:41,240
we can go DB Finance.

338
00:21:41,540 --> 00:21:43,020
So it's very fail-safe.

339
00:21:43,120 --> 00:21:44,660
Those risks are taken off the table.

340
00:21:45,420 --> 00:21:49,580
So where do you clash with the Bitcoin macro crowd?

341
00:21:50,020 --> 00:21:50,620
Name names.

342
00:21:50,980 --> 00:21:52,080
Who? What are they saying?

343
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:53,400
Which crowd?

344
00:21:53,400 --> 00:22:10,000
The thing I've learned is that the mainstream media, and it seems like the Bitcoin crypto media, love to report the price went up because ABC news event.

345
00:22:11,460 --> 00:22:16,020
I think the daily news does not come into necessarily the price.

346
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,320
It just happened to be in a coincidence.

347
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:19,780
it's a coincidence

348
00:22:19,780 --> 00:22:21,680
I would say

349
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,100
maybe even 70% of the time

350
00:22:25,100 --> 00:22:26,960
on that 30% it's like real

351
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:28,620
like the news was

352
00:22:28,620 --> 00:22:30,460
Elon Musk mentioned Dogecoin

353
00:22:30,460 --> 00:22:32,180
and everyone jumped on and traded it

354
00:22:32,180 --> 00:22:34,940
or the news is

355
00:22:34,940 --> 00:22:36,040
FTX got hacked

356
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:37,540
and the whole price crashes

357
00:22:37,540 --> 00:22:40,520
there's some urgent news that does affect price

358
00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:42,560
but 70% is just a coincidence

359
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:44,300
generally

360
00:22:44,300 --> 00:22:47,160
price moves in the short term

361
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:48,200
tactically

362
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,940
which means the setup between traders

363
00:22:50,940 --> 00:22:52,840
and it was going to go one way or the other

364
00:22:52,840 --> 00:22:56,400
and the incentives to go one way in particular

365
00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:00,140
was overwhelming because a lot of people would lose money.

366
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:01,520
They would be liquidated

367
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:04,860
and generally trading in the short term,

368
00:23:05,860 --> 00:23:07,500
it's like a football match

369
00:23:07,500 --> 00:23:12,000
and you think that you're placing a bet on this game

370
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,800
and you're sitting in the stadiums.

371
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:15,840
The real traders are actually in the game

372
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:18,560
and they're pushing the price around to liquidate.

373
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,280
And it's a tactical game, right?

374
00:23:21,360 --> 00:23:25,040
And so that's what's moving the price around in the short term.

375
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:26,680
In the medium and longer term,

376
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,620
medium term, it's about the investment that comes in.

377
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:31,080
That's a sea of investors.

378
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,040
Long term, it's the fundamentals of Bitcoin.

379
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:36,380
Is it hard money?

380
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:37,240
Will it win?

381
00:23:37,620 --> 00:23:39,420
What are the regulations around it?

382
00:23:39,420 --> 00:23:44,000
What will be, where will it go in the next 10 years, right?

383
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:52,640
And so these have impacts, but the news covers the short time frame and it's normally 70% of the time not the reason.

384
00:23:52,980 --> 00:23:55,020
And so that's what I would say.

385
00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:55,760
Okay.

386
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:58,080
You track liquidity closely.

387
00:23:58,600 --> 00:23:59,700
Where are we right now?

388
00:23:59,880 --> 00:24:02,980
And what kind of leverage do you see in the market?

389
00:24:04,020 --> 00:24:07,240
When I'm looking at liquidity, I'm looking at the flows of money.

390
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:10,380
The flows of money coming into Bitcoin, coming out of it.

391
00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:13,080
Where are we right now?

392
00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,340
we're a late stage in the bull market.

393
00:24:16,980 --> 00:24:19,520
And you can tell that because the liquidity

394
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,420
is not keeping up with the price rise.

395
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,900
Like you can see liquidity starting to weaken

396
00:24:25,900 --> 00:24:28,440
relative to the price going up, okay?

397
00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:31,120
And so when that happens,

398
00:24:31,740 --> 00:24:34,540
the stability in the network becomes unstable.

399
00:24:35,500 --> 00:24:39,500
And so also that's when you get a lot of price rise.

400
00:24:39,500 --> 00:24:42,160
In 2017, for example,

401
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:47,780
The start of that year was when liquidity started dropping away, actually.

402
00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:50,600
And it went from $1,000 to $20,000.

403
00:24:51,540 --> 00:24:53,760
And at the top, there's no liquidity.

404
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,360
And the price is going haywire and it's highly volatile.

405
00:24:58,820 --> 00:25:00,680
And so that's where we are.

406
00:25:00,820 --> 00:25:02,580
Liquidity's been dropping away.

407
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,580
And I think it's around six months into it now.

408
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,860
So we know that we're in the late cycle of the bull market.

409
00:25:09,860 --> 00:25:15,400
and it's an exciting time because that's when things get really volatile.

410
00:25:16,580 --> 00:25:19,360
You can kind of think of it as like a ping pong ball

411
00:25:19,360 --> 00:25:24,260
and liquidity is like the air that's pushing up against it.

412
00:25:24,380 --> 00:25:27,140
In the bottom of the market, there's such a big air cushion,

413
00:25:27,380 --> 00:25:28,420
it's going to push it up.

414
00:25:29,540 --> 00:25:32,720
Near the top of the market, that ping pong ball's got a lot of momentum.

415
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,700
It's flying on its own, but the air cushion's moving away.

416
00:25:36,700 --> 00:25:41,880
that air cushion gives it support and mutes the downside.

417
00:25:42,120 --> 00:25:46,260
And as that starts to fall away, this thing starts trading like a meme coin,

418
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:47,780
and it's volatile.

419
00:25:48,220 --> 00:25:50,580
And so that's where we are right now, heading into that.

420
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:54,000
And what kind of leverage do you see right now in the market?

421
00:25:54,740 --> 00:26:00,140
The leverage in the system is, well, locally climbing.

422
00:26:00,340 --> 00:26:03,100
You can see it builds up and then it purges, right?

423
00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:05,920
So if we were talking about...

424
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:06,160
Why is that?

425
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,260
Because people get really speculative.

426
00:26:08,780 --> 00:26:11,480
It's like it's a bull market, the price is running up,

427
00:26:11,620 --> 00:26:14,160
then they pile on and put leverage on the system.

428
00:26:14,460 --> 00:26:17,060
They want to take a long position, obviously.

429
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,120
That's usually a danger sign.

430
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:25,620
So, for example, we rallied to, I believe, $125,000

431
00:26:25,620 --> 00:26:28,700
and now currently we're at $109,000, $108,000.

432
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:32,600
That's because so many people put in long positions

433
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:34,800
when it got to the $120,000.

434
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:35,320
Yeah.

435
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:41,460
and when it gets extreme with everyone taking long positions,

436
00:26:42,180 --> 00:26:45,000
all it takes is to push a price the other direction

437
00:26:45,000 --> 00:26:45,980
and they get liquidated.

438
00:26:45,980 --> 00:26:49,400
And so what's happened is that everyone leave it up,

439
00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:51,720
the incentive to liquidate them.

440
00:26:52,180 --> 00:26:54,040
Remember, it's like that football match.

441
00:26:54,220 --> 00:26:58,320
If you're a linebacker and you've got some firepower,

442
00:26:58,460 --> 00:27:03,080
you can dump Bitcoin and push the price down and liquidate

443
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,600
and then the rest just, when they're liquidated,

444
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,240
sell, sell, sell, cascades down the water book.

445
00:27:08,860 --> 00:27:11,740
And so that's actually in process.

446
00:27:12,060 --> 00:27:15,100
And then the problem is everyone's still bullish

447
00:27:15,100 --> 00:27:16,740
and they keep putting more long positions.

448
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:19,000
That's created more incentive to push it down.

449
00:27:19,120 --> 00:27:22,400
So we're currently about 108,000 today.

450
00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:24,860
We're talking about the tactical timeframes.

451
00:27:26,140 --> 00:27:28,780
So the leverage in the system comes in

452
00:27:28,780 --> 00:27:30,540
when everyone's getting FOMO

453
00:27:30,540 --> 00:27:35,180
And then they get the shit beaten out of them, right?

454
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,000
Until they're no longer bullish and the leverage is out of the system.

455
00:27:39,120 --> 00:27:42,800
That's when Bitcoin tends to be healthy to go on the next up leg.

456
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:43,540
Okay.

457
00:27:43,660 --> 00:27:44,020
Okay.

458
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,300
And it comes and it goes, but yeah.

459
00:27:47,040 --> 00:27:53,360
Could you describe the Asian Bitcoin market and what makes it unique compared to the West?

460
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:55,520
I'd say it's size and liquidity.

461
00:27:55,520 --> 00:28:00,160
In the early days, really, the focus was in America and Europe, I think.

462
00:28:00,540 --> 00:28:13,440
Whereas Asia was always quite big The numbers that I have is that the liquidity in Asia equals US and Europe combined And I think it taken a while for that to be understood

463
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:16,120
And now I'm certainly starting to see

464
00:28:16,120 --> 00:28:19,400
a lot of American and European companies

465
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:22,540
and investors and funds go to Asia

466
00:28:22,540 --> 00:28:24,080
and do these conferences now

467
00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:25,880
because they realize just how much liquidity

468
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:27,520
there is in the Asian markets.

469
00:28:28,260 --> 00:28:32,300
Last cycle gave us FTX, Celsius, Luna,

470
00:28:32,500 --> 00:28:33,820
3AC

471
00:28:33,820 --> 00:28:35,220
BlockFi

472
00:28:35,220 --> 00:28:36,420
and many more

473
00:28:36,420 --> 00:28:38,500
who do you think

474
00:28:38,500 --> 00:28:39,200
will end up

475
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:40,260
the billion this time?

476
00:28:40,980 --> 00:28:41,260
Look

477
00:28:41,260 --> 00:28:42,260
the bear markets

478
00:28:42,260 --> 00:28:43,360
test the weakness

479
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:44,060
in the system

480
00:28:44,060 --> 00:28:45,240
okay

481
00:28:45,240 --> 00:28:46,080
and we saw

482
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:46,760
all the weaknesses

483
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:47,580
in 2022

484
00:28:47,580 --> 00:28:49,120
as the thing came down

485
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:50,080
it was Lunar Terror

486
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:51,140
it was

487
00:28:51,140 --> 00:28:51,720
the things

488
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:52,640
the people

489
00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:53,700
in the companies

490
00:28:53,700 --> 00:28:54,460
you mentioned

491
00:28:54,460 --> 00:28:55,820
they were not robust

492
00:28:55,820 --> 00:28:57,720
this time around

493
00:28:57,720 --> 00:28:59,620
it's much more robust

494
00:28:59,620 --> 00:29:00,200
at least

495
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:01,660
the leverage

496
00:29:01,660 --> 00:29:02,180
you know

497
00:29:02,180 --> 00:29:06,180
the virtual leverage in the system is the Bitcoin treasury companies

498
00:29:06,180 --> 00:29:09,760
and now we've got the digital assets treasury companies.

499
00:29:10,940 --> 00:29:13,740
Some of them are quite weak in their structuring.

500
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:18,600
I've only looked at a few and the few that I've looked at look quite weak

501
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:20,580
and they can be up for liquidation.

502
00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,360
Let's call it a treasury company.

503
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:27,120
It's trading at five times the amount of the Bitcoin that they have.

504
00:29:27,700 --> 00:29:31,080
You can expect that to go down to one to one or even lower.

505
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:35,120
and then the price of Bitcoin is probably going to drop as well on top of that

506
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:36,620
and a bear market definitely will be.

507
00:29:36,780 --> 00:29:39,640
So you multiply all those drops together

508
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:44,260
and you could be like 90% down in the next.

509
00:29:44,860 --> 00:29:46,820
But does that mean it blows up?

510
00:29:47,020 --> 00:29:49,800
Well, some of them could get liquidated

511
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:52,740
and then that's going to be an issue.

512
00:29:52,740 --> 00:29:57,340
I think that we really need to see what blows up.

513
00:29:57,580 --> 00:30:00,460
I personally think strategy is relatively robust.

514
00:30:00,460 --> 00:30:01,500
It won't blow up.

515
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:02,860
The price will go down.

516
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:12,060
I think the new DATs, they're looking at BNB, XRP, even ETH, these things, we know they

517
00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:14,460
drill down so deeply in a bear market.

518
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,760
They're going to be toxic to hold.

519
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:21,420
The question is, what is this bear market going to be like?

520
00:30:21,820 --> 00:30:27,640
And most people think, well, since we're so robust this time around, we might get a 30%

521
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:33,160
bear market instead of an 85 like last time and I don't think it's different this time around I

522
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:41,980
think that we're now the newest macro asset that's trading at scale that the world's seen in

523
00:30:41,980 --> 00:30:50,700
150 years actually Bitcoin's this two trillion dollar asset and that is highly correlated to

524
00:30:50,700 --> 00:30:57,780
macro cycles and I actually think the villain will be the global economy.

525
00:30:58,660 --> 00:31:04,740
You think we'll have like a financial crisis that is going to bring the bear market down.

526
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:12,240
How real is the threat of governments nationalizing or even confiscating Bitcoin treasuries?

527
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,120
I think in short term it's not high. I think in the long term it's very high

528
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,920
because it's happened before.

529
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:21,260
And these things play out over decades.

530
00:31:22,280 --> 00:31:27,080
So if a country has got their back to the wall,

531
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,060
they will do very extreme things.

532
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:34,960
And we just have to see how long this fiat train runs

533
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,680
and how things start to crumble around over extension,

534
00:31:39,020 --> 00:31:41,700
too much debt in the system, what nation states do.

535
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,820
So if we're talking in a 10-year time frame

536
00:31:44,820 --> 00:31:47,960
or 20-year time frame, I think the risk is extremely high.

537
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:51,000
Is it going to happen this year, next year?

538
00:31:51,900 --> 00:31:52,960
Probably not.

539
00:31:53,340 --> 00:31:55,800
I'm expecting a business cycle downturn,

540
00:31:56,460 --> 00:32:00,620
not a crisis of trust in the money.

541
00:32:00,620 --> 00:32:06,480
I think that we're heading into a business cycle recession,

542
00:32:06,740 --> 00:32:09,180
which we really haven't had since 2008.

543
00:32:10,220 --> 00:32:10,360
Yeah.

544
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:19,940
your models once hinted 337k for this cycle speak it was actually a top model that's published on

545
00:32:19,940 --> 00:32:26,000
my charts website um and that's called the top model and the top model means that um that's

546
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:35,320
historically if you follow this trend um like it hits the tops right um meaning um the price should

547
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:37,000
be under that, you know.

548
00:32:37,260 --> 00:32:40,700
But if you get an exponential blow off top, then it would hit that.

549
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:42,620
Fingers crossed.

550
00:32:43,260 --> 00:32:45,340
I've never made a price prediction for this cycle.

551
00:32:45,820 --> 00:32:53,740
The last cycle, I got a lot of heat for making, I don't know, what is it, 400,000, 300,000.

552
00:32:53,740 --> 00:32:57,020
The numbers keep changing because it was coming off that top model.

553
00:32:57,780 --> 00:33:03,600
And that was actually spoken about in, I think, Peter McCormack's show.

554
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,340
and what I've come to learn

555
00:33:07,340 --> 00:33:10,960
is that the tops are ridiculously unstable

556
00:33:10,960 --> 00:33:12,120
like we mentioned before

557
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,640
because liquidity drops away

558
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:16,460
and it gets pretty chaotic

559
00:33:16,460 --> 00:33:19,560
but if people are trying to pick a top

560
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,100
it's kind of a fool's errand

561
00:33:21,100 --> 00:33:24,980
because if you look at the system

562
00:33:24,980 --> 00:33:26,340
liquidity is dropping away

563
00:33:26,340 --> 00:33:28,300
the system is becoming unstable

564
00:33:28,300 --> 00:33:30,040
and very noisy and volatile

565
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,280
so if you get it

566
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:33,580
you're lucky.

567
00:33:34,020 --> 00:33:35,240
The bottoms are very stable,

568
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,680
but the tops are very unstable.

569
00:33:38,060 --> 00:33:39,980
And so what to look for is

570
00:33:39,980 --> 00:33:42,140
when does liquidity drop away?

571
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:47,540
And then you know the risk is high,

572
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,020
but you don't really know the price

573
00:33:50,020 --> 00:33:50,980
that it's going to hit.

574
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,860
When did you expect this cycle to top?

575
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:55,980
If you look at the liquidity picture,

576
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:57,500
it's starting to drop away

577
00:33:57,500 --> 00:33:59,820
and you just got to take a guess

578
00:33:59,820 --> 00:34:05,980
on when that might start to really create that super, super high risk zone.

579
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:09,360
And I think that the high risk zone starts in October

580
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:15,260
and then it can run all the way into first quarter of next year.

581
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:17,040
Even second, no one knows the future.

582
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,160
It depends on the liquidity in the system.

583
00:34:20,520 --> 00:34:23,740
Jerome Powell, when the rates cut, what the investors do.

584
00:34:23,820 --> 00:34:25,320
There's a lot of unknowns in the system.

585
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:29,160
But I think that currently shaping up October onwards,

586
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:30,800
the risk starts to climb.

587
00:34:31,720 --> 00:34:36,820
Do you expect a wild blow off top or a steady climb

588
00:34:36,820 --> 00:34:41,160
with institutions cashing profits along the way?

589
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:46,120
I mean, this climb has been very, very steady, right?

590
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,800
This bull market's been relatively steady.

591
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,740
And so I think a lot of volatility will be taken out of the system

592
00:34:54,740 --> 00:34:57,140
because the cycle is less volatile.

593
00:34:57,140 --> 00:34:59,820
I think we'll get a bear market.

594
00:35:00,020 --> 00:35:05,620
I think we'll have increased volatility, but it won't be as wild.

595
00:35:05,820 --> 00:35:08,020
I don't think it'll be as wild as last time.

596
00:35:08,100 --> 00:35:09,560
I think we'll have a long bear market.

597
00:35:10,060 --> 00:35:10,600
A long one?

598
00:35:10,740 --> 00:35:11,900
Yeah, I think we'll have a long one.

599
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:13,360
I don't think it'll be as wild.

600
00:35:14,340 --> 00:35:19,320
Did you see any similarities between the previous bull markets and this one?

601
00:35:20,220 --> 00:35:21,140
Every one's been different.

602
00:35:21,300 --> 00:35:22,600
Every cycle has been different.

603
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:26,120
So, yeah, I would say no.

604
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,800
So the thing that's different is that it's spot-driven, this market.

605
00:35:30,980 --> 00:35:33,880
This market is much more spot-dominated.

606
00:35:34,480 --> 00:35:43,120
The last bull market was derivatives had a lot of say in the price action.

607
00:35:43,420 --> 00:35:45,720
You can see it in the price chart if you know what you're looking for.

608
00:35:46,140 --> 00:35:50,220
And when do you expect the next bear market to bottom and at what price?

609
00:35:52,180 --> 00:35:53,980
This is just guesses, right?

610
00:35:53,980 --> 00:35:57,180
the guess for me would be

611
00:35:57,180 --> 00:35:59,760
I'd expect 12 to 18 month bear market

612
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,700
I'd prepare for it

613
00:36:01,700 --> 00:36:03,340
anything can happen

614
00:36:03,340 --> 00:36:05,700
price wise

615
00:36:05,700 --> 00:36:08,180
also a guess

616
00:36:08,180 --> 00:36:09,040
using models

617
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,160
I don't think it's going to drop below

618
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:13,540
40,000

619
00:36:13,540 --> 00:36:16,040
but we need to see

620
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:17,560
what the macro picture looks like

621
00:36:17,560 --> 00:36:20,000
and just how deep the macro

622
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,200
bear market will be

623
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:23,700
this cycle I'm very very careful not to make

624
00:36:23,700 --> 00:36:29,500
predictions because that's not my role to predict. My role is to see what's happening in the structure

625
00:36:29,500 --> 00:36:35,020
of the market in real time. What's happening now? How does it look? What's it suggesting for the

626
00:36:35,020 --> 00:36:41,340
next four weeks? And I think that's enough. That's enough to get an understanding of it

627
00:36:41,340 --> 00:36:49,100
and to manage capital. I think trying to think 18 months out, and it's a warning actually,

628
00:36:49,100 --> 00:36:56,140
If some talking head on a show is saying it's going to bottom in 18 months, the top will be 500,000.

629
00:36:56,240 --> 00:36:57,260
These are just guesses.

630
00:36:57,460 --> 00:37:08,200
You'd be a fool to listen to that person and make a financial decision three months out and 18 months out because majority of these talking heads will be wrong.

631
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:09,680
That's what I would say.

632
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:22,600
And I think that in Bitcoin we have a lot of new investors that might not necessarily understand just how inaccurate predictions are.

633
00:37:23,180 --> 00:37:26,400
Do you expect any panic selling this cycle?

634
00:37:26,700 --> 00:37:29,940
Yeah, you can break market cycles.

635
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:38,600
into phases and in a bear market you have a very highly volatile top you get a dead cat bounce

636
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:44,660
where it bounces up that's usually when you see liquidity falling away even more you know it's

637
00:37:44,660 --> 00:37:49,880
for sure a bear market that's probably the best time to sell not at the top because you don't

638
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:57,980
really know and then you're going to endure pain the market's going to endure pain and generally

639
00:37:57,980 --> 00:38:03,420
the tail phases, you get to a halfway point in the bear market,

640
00:38:03,560 --> 00:38:06,380
and then the second half is when the panic starts to set in.

641
00:38:06,580 --> 00:38:10,460
And then you look for the capitulation event where people have endured

642
00:38:10,460 --> 00:38:12,700
months and months of drawdown.

643
00:38:12,900 --> 00:38:15,680
They're like, I've had it with this asset, and they capitulate.

644
00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:19,520
And usually that's a big work down, and people are just selling their own care.

645
00:38:19,820 --> 00:38:22,740
And so, yes, that's part of the cycle.

646
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:24,260
So I expect it too.

647
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:26,080
It's the human psychology as well.

648
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,680
It's a very human thing, yes.

649
00:38:29,300 --> 00:38:34,100
So when you sell at the start of the bear market, where do you park it?

650
00:38:34,700 --> 00:38:40,580
I think, I mean, it's changed because I've been through the first bear market I was accumulating,

651
00:38:40,700 --> 00:38:43,320
Bitcoin, the second one I was in stables.

652
00:38:44,180 --> 00:38:50,560
The last one, 2022, I was in our fund of funds, which was yielding on USD.

653
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:56,260
I think this one, moving forward, I'll be doing Bitcoin collateralized lending.

654
00:38:56,460 --> 00:39:01,900
I'll lend US dollars for some yield backed by Bitcoin.

655
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:04,460
Yeah, that's relatively robust.

656
00:39:05,100 --> 00:39:06,980
What are your thoughts on Tether Gold?

657
00:39:07,720 --> 00:39:09,780
I think a Tether Gold is dog food.

658
00:39:10,940 --> 00:39:12,240
Let me explain that.

659
00:39:12,720 --> 00:39:16,720
They're dog fooding their own product, as we say in startup terms.

660
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:18,940
That's a good thing, not a bad thing, right?

661
00:39:18,940 --> 00:39:22,660
Because you can see Taylor's treasury is holding gold, right?

662
00:39:22,860 --> 00:39:25,520
So they've built a product for themselves to hold their gold.

663
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:28,860
They're tokenizing their gold and they've offered that to others that want to do it.

664
00:39:28,920 --> 00:39:29,980
That's how I think about it.

665
00:39:29,980 --> 00:39:38,180
So do you trust stable coins not to be frozen or confiscated in a major financial or government crisis?

666
00:39:39,180 --> 00:39:48,400
You know, I wouldn't put in my bank cash any significant amount because of that bail-in threshold.

667
00:39:48,940 --> 00:40:05,940
In terms of Tether or Circle or, you know, there's what changes every day, but I think it's around 170 billion US dollars in that pool of capital.

668
00:40:06,940 --> 00:40:09,940
Is the US government coming in to freeze that?

669
00:40:09,940 --> 00:40:23,280
They might take the money out of your bank account, but to take $170 billion from Tether or Circle, who's going to buy their T-bills if they do that?

670
00:40:24,220 --> 00:40:35,000
The US government requires buyers of their debt, and the fastest growing buyer of debt is Tether right now.

671
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:46,900
In fact, if Bitcoin price goes over the next 10 years to a million dollars, the T-bill buying, the short-dated T-bill buying is more than enough to replace China who have stopped buying the T-bills.

672
00:40:47,040 --> 00:40:50,660
So the US government debt is reliant on stable coins growing.

673
00:40:50,980 --> 00:40:57,760
So I don't think they're going to freeze that because that's kind of committing suicide on their debt.

674
00:40:57,760 --> 00:41:04,900
They could do it, but that would be an absolute crisis, like absolute crisis, a fall of a nation state.

675
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:06,400
that could happen.

676
00:41:06,680 --> 00:41:06,920
Yeah.

677
00:41:07,240 --> 00:41:07,840
But, you know,

678
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,380
if that happens,

679
00:41:09,540 --> 00:41:11,160
the nation state's going down.

680
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:12,040
Yeah.

681
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:13,220
That could happen.

682
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,240
Let me play you a clip

683
00:41:16,240 --> 00:41:18,340
from my interview with Adam Back.

684
00:41:19,060 --> 00:41:21,580
Does the halving affect Bitcoin's price?

685
00:41:23,020 --> 00:41:24,340
Empirically, it seems to.

686
00:41:24,540 --> 00:41:26,000
And the reason why that might be the case

687
00:41:26,000 --> 00:41:29,440
is that the amount of new coins available

688
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:30,380
shrinks.

689
00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:33,040
Now, I think some people

690
00:41:33,040 --> 00:41:39,580
are sort of surprised that the halving continues to have a large economic effect because the

691
00:41:39,580 --> 00:41:45,400
percentage reduction in supply compared to the total is becoming smaller over time, right? Because,

692
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:53,000
you know, if you're at 19 million and the number of new coins drops by only a percent per year or

693
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:57,840
something quite small, right, then they would say, well, why would a percent make a big movement?

694
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:03,020
They guess it would be a diminishing return. But I think actually the reason that is not the

695
00:42:03,020 --> 00:42:09,340
case is that there's another effect which is the behavior in the market of the investors so i think

696
00:42:09,340 --> 00:42:16,500
effectively newcomers become more convinced over time and then they start to save and hold for the

697
00:42:16,500 --> 00:42:22,340
longer term and so while the percentage change arising from a new halving is diminishing each

698
00:42:22,340 --> 00:42:28,960
halving the number of coins that are being cold stored is increasing over time it continues to

699
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:35,460
have so far a big economic effect each halving because you're looking at the reduction the change

700
00:42:35,460 --> 00:42:41,620
in supply versus the amount of coins available for trade and as long as that ratio is you know

701
00:42:41,620 --> 00:42:46,340
constant or even increasing then it can still have a large economic effect what's your take

702
00:42:46,340 --> 00:42:53,480
do you think the halving is still matter for price it does in the moment i like what adam says because

703
00:42:53,480 --> 00:43:01,220
it's a unique view right he's saying that the ripples the supply shock and the ripples in the

704
00:43:01,220 --> 00:43:07,220
pond are getting smaller and smaller and he's saying the depth of the pond is getting thinner

705
00:43:07,220 --> 00:43:13,200
and thinner so those waves are still having the impact the depth being the actual supply that's

706
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:20,120
being traded um now uh there was a touch point where he says more and more is locked away in

707
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:22,320
cold storage, more hodlers and so forth,

708
00:43:22,400 --> 00:43:23,840
then that might be the case.

709
00:43:25,020 --> 00:43:28,300
I haven't done the study on it

710
00:43:28,300 --> 00:43:29,620
because it gets pretty tricky.

711
00:43:30,540 --> 00:43:33,740
But we need to see if that is really truly the case.

712
00:43:34,020 --> 00:43:38,520
What I do know is Bitcoin is becoming very, very liquid.

713
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:43,220
It is incredibly liquid for its size.

714
00:43:43,760 --> 00:43:47,180
That means there's a lot of trading activity going on.

715
00:43:47,180 --> 00:43:50,740
it's true that we're getting more coins

716
00:43:50,740 --> 00:44:01,698
into cold storage that because it being locked away into the Bitcoin ETF and MicroStrategy for example That in cold storage but they are being traded right

717
00:44:01,738 --> 00:44:03,818
They are being traded as in the shares

718
00:44:03,818 --> 00:44:05,958
of the ownership is being traded.

719
00:44:06,478 --> 00:44:08,238
That does have an impact.

720
00:44:08,598 --> 00:44:11,138
And so I'm on the other side of the camp.

721
00:44:11,258 --> 00:44:13,018
I think that the halvening

722
00:44:13,018 --> 00:44:15,078
is getting smaller and smaller.

723
00:44:15,078 --> 00:44:16,958
And I think the depth of the pond

724
00:44:16,958 --> 00:44:20,258
is actually staying the same

725
00:44:20,258 --> 00:44:22,338
or getting deeper.

726
00:44:22,758 --> 00:44:24,438
I think the liquidity is getting deeper.

727
00:44:25,498 --> 00:44:28,538
So I think it has less impact in the future.

728
00:44:28,618 --> 00:44:30,218
But we're all speculating right now

729
00:44:30,218 --> 00:44:33,178
because to date it does have an impact.

730
00:44:33,938 --> 00:44:36,438
We're talking about the next cycles ahead.

731
00:44:37,098 --> 00:44:38,778
So what signs will tell you

732
00:44:38,778 --> 00:44:40,898
the four-year cycle is breaking down?

733
00:44:44,378 --> 00:44:48,698
I would say that the free market stopped working.

734
00:44:49,718 --> 00:44:49,958
How?

735
00:44:50,258 --> 00:44:56,398
Maybe we would say free markets stop working, central banks stop working.

736
00:44:56,698 --> 00:45:00,378
Because the four-year cycle is a superposition of two impacts.

737
00:45:00,538 --> 00:45:05,598
One is the halvening and the other one is the global liquidity cycle of money printing.

738
00:45:05,778 --> 00:45:15,618
And it just turns out that money printing, the surges of liquidity when nation states print more money, central banks print more money, it is a four-year cycle.

739
00:45:15,618 --> 00:45:17,258
So they go hand in hand?

740
00:45:17,258 --> 00:45:24,538
Hand in hand, liquidity cycle of the amount of fiat being debased, the rate at which it's being debased is oscillating four years.

741
00:45:25,018 --> 00:45:27,738
And they superimpose onto the halvening cycle.

742
00:45:28,538 --> 00:45:39,858
And so when the halvening goes to insignificance, will the resonant frequency of the debasement move from four years to something else?

743
00:45:40,218 --> 00:45:42,998
And if that's the case, then we'll move to something else.

744
00:45:42,998 --> 00:45:50,698
will be correlated more to macro markets than internal supply shock within the Bitcoin pool or capital.

745
00:45:51,018 --> 00:45:52,618
How would a super cycle look like?

746
00:45:53,898 --> 00:46:02,498
If we get a macro bull market for more than four years, I guess that's possible.

747
00:46:03,198 --> 00:46:05,218
But yeah, I mean, it's also how you define it.

748
00:46:05,278 --> 00:46:12,698
We might say it's a super cycle because it only drew down 40% and a bear market should be 80% or something like that.

749
00:46:12,698 --> 00:46:20,698
But, yeah, for me, a super cycle is, it's all about macro markets now.

750
00:46:20,698 --> 00:46:24,498
For me, super cycle is when it always goes up steady.

751
00:46:24,498 --> 00:46:27,698
But climbing up, we wouldn't have better markets.

752
00:46:27,698 --> 00:46:29,498
That's how I understand that.

753
00:46:29,498 --> 00:46:33,498
Yeah, I think that's a figment of people's imagination.

754
00:46:33,498 --> 00:46:34,898
I imagine.

755
00:46:34,898 --> 00:46:37,298
When have you seen a market that only goes up?

756
00:46:37,298 --> 00:46:40,298
I mean, I'd be very scared if that was the case.

757
00:46:40,298 --> 00:46:40,698
Yeah.

758
00:46:40,698 --> 00:46:42,658
Something's wrong.

759
00:46:42,698 --> 00:46:46,918
Do you see any signs this bull market could stretch into 2026?

760
00:46:47,318 --> 00:46:52,278
I know you already mentioned the beginning of Q1 26, but do you see any signs?

761
00:46:53,018 --> 00:46:56,978
I mean, if, you know, like Jackson Hole, that just happened.

762
00:46:57,418 --> 00:47:02,318
They've just thrown out the use of, you know, inflation metrics.

763
00:47:02,818 --> 00:47:10,218
And that means that the feds allow the print however they see fit on other metrics.

764
00:47:10,218 --> 00:47:13,378
and currently it was inflation that was holding them back from printing money.

765
00:47:14,298 --> 00:47:18,558
And so, sure, like if we get cuts in rates,

766
00:47:18,778 --> 00:47:20,118
which means more money printing,

767
00:47:21,698 --> 00:47:23,478
liquidity can come into the system.

768
00:47:23,878 --> 00:47:27,198
And how does that interact with the economy is the big question.

769
00:47:27,418 --> 00:47:30,678
Because everyone's thinking that a whole lot of liquidity injection,

770
00:47:31,218 --> 00:47:33,998
a lot of money in the system, all markets go up.

771
00:47:35,538 --> 00:47:39,978
But you'll see that often they print as the whole market's caving.

772
00:47:40,218 --> 00:47:42,278
to soften the crash.

773
00:47:43,518 --> 00:47:48,518
And so it's not always that liquidity pumps market.

774
00:47:48,718 --> 00:47:52,178
It's actually there to stop it from hard crashing.

775
00:47:53,198 --> 00:47:56,358
Right now, I think the market's looking pretty fragile

776
00:47:56,358 --> 00:47:59,578
and they should have been printing money much earlier

777
00:47:59,578 --> 00:48:02,498
to stave off the recession.

778
00:48:03,498 --> 00:48:05,698
Because this happened in COVID, actually.

779
00:48:05,798 --> 00:48:08,898
The business cycle had hit those warning signs.

780
00:48:08,898 --> 00:48:14,258
and the Fed was printing early, way before COVID actually hit.

781
00:48:14,718 --> 00:48:16,858
And then when it hit, they printed like crazy

782
00:48:16,858 --> 00:48:19,238
and you saw how it just bounced up, right?

783
00:48:19,298 --> 00:48:23,698
And so a lot of it comes down to the timing of when does the liquidity come in?

784
00:48:24,338 --> 00:48:26,618
And so far, all of this year, it's been late.

785
00:48:26,718 --> 00:48:29,198
You see Trump been pushing for lowering of rates

786
00:48:29,198 --> 00:48:32,198
and Powell has been holding off.

787
00:48:32,198 --> 00:48:35,198
And now it looks like they will print.

788
00:48:35,198 --> 00:48:43,658
The question is, is the business cycle going to come down hard against that liquidity or is it going to hold up and it's going to rise?

789
00:48:44,298 --> 00:48:45,698
You know, so let's see.

790
00:48:46,298 --> 00:48:46,438
Yeah.

791
00:48:46,858 --> 00:48:53,678
What's the difference when ETFs and company treacheries lead the market instead of retail?

792
00:48:54,198 --> 00:48:59,998
The theoretical answer is that it's more steady, right?

793
00:48:59,998 --> 00:49:05,378
because institutions like MicroStrategy aren't going to sell their Bitcoin.

794
00:49:06,618 --> 00:49:11,738
ETFs tend to be more traditional wealth people that are more steady,

795
00:49:11,918 --> 00:49:14,898
let's say, in their investments decisions.

796
00:49:15,338 --> 00:49:19,338
So we would expect less like downward volatility.

797
00:49:20,238 --> 00:49:23,038
The question is, how real is that?

798
00:49:23,078 --> 00:49:24,418
Because we don't know the investors.

799
00:49:24,898 --> 00:49:29,498
I just know a lot of Bitcoiners are buying MicroStrategy.

800
00:49:29,998 --> 00:49:33,878
and buying ETFs as well.

801
00:49:34,838 --> 00:49:36,958
And so is it the same investors

802
00:49:36,958 --> 00:49:39,158
just going through an institutional wrapper?

803
00:49:39,698 --> 00:49:40,658
That's my question.

804
00:49:40,878 --> 00:49:43,378
I think a lot of Bitcoiners are actually using

805
00:49:43,378 --> 00:49:45,898
the security instruments this cycle around,

806
00:49:46,658 --> 00:49:50,038
particularly around the treasury companies.

807
00:49:50,178 --> 00:49:51,358
You can see it all over Twitter,

808
00:49:51,478 --> 00:49:53,598
the amount of interest around MetaPlanet.

809
00:49:54,018 --> 00:49:55,518
Originally, it was MicroStrategy.

810
00:49:56,618 --> 00:49:59,458
Now, all of these treasury companies,

811
00:49:59,458 --> 00:50:01,378
everyone's interested in it.

812
00:50:01,378 --> 00:50:04,618
And I think that we haven't had much of an alt season

813
00:50:04,618 --> 00:50:06,698
because that was the thing that was exciting

814
00:50:06,698 --> 00:50:10,698
and now it's securities wrapped around Bitcoin.

815
00:50:12,818 --> 00:50:16,578
Do you think we are already in the thrill and euphoria phase?

816
00:50:18,138 --> 00:50:31,916
No I don think so It pretty boring the cycle actually yeah what the trap you see everyone walking into right now without realizing it i think in general there a lot of talk about

817
00:50:31,916 --> 00:50:37,196
the money spigot's going to open and the market's going to run higher and higher and i think in bull

818
00:50:37,196 --> 00:50:45,736
markets we're too bullish yeah i think that's the main trap right now um we've had talks of the

819
00:50:45,736 --> 00:50:56,056
samsung mal god candle we've got talks of bitcoin going to the moon like 200 000 400 000 i don't

820
00:50:56,056 --> 00:51:06,776
know what um and i think um bitcoin's not we're not in 2016 anymore we're not in you know like not

821
00:51:06,776 --> 00:51:14,616
2016 bitcoin was below a thousand dollars um today bitcoin is you know for every every one bitcoin

822
00:51:14,616 --> 00:51:20,896
you buy that needs an investor that fronts $110,000 to buy it off you.

823
00:51:22,636 --> 00:51:24,976
2016, it was 500 bucks.

824
00:51:25,516 --> 00:51:25,636
Yeah.

825
00:51:25,696 --> 00:51:32,576
You know, so we're in an era where we need to gobble up trillions of dollars to move

826
00:51:32,576 --> 00:51:33,156
price.

827
00:51:33,816 --> 00:51:39,716
When people are bullish, they're thinking price targets of a million dollars are 10x

828
00:51:39,716 --> 00:51:40,176
from there.

829
00:51:40,176 --> 00:51:43,736
You know, back in 2017, it was 100x in one year.

830
00:51:43,736 --> 00:51:47,436
but forget about these 100x's

831
00:51:47,436 --> 00:51:49,516
we're a macro asset now

832
00:51:49,516 --> 00:51:51,036
in that world

833
00:51:51,036 --> 00:51:54,456
20% gain is a lot

834
00:51:54,456 --> 00:51:57,456
so I think that people are too bullish

835
00:51:57,456 --> 00:51:58,756
I think people are too bullish

836
00:51:58,756 --> 00:52:02,076
I think we need to think about things as investors

837
00:52:02,076 --> 00:52:03,176
long term investors

838
00:52:03,176 --> 00:52:05,336
it's a great investment long term

839
00:52:05,336 --> 00:52:09,376
but these 100x's or the 10x's

840
00:52:09,376 --> 00:52:12,556
is the huddle hype real conviction

841
00:52:12,556 --> 00:52:17,776
or it's just influencers dumping their actual liquidity on retail?

842
00:52:18,336 --> 00:52:19,996
Yeah, I think that's too conspiracist.

843
00:52:20,076 --> 00:52:21,376
I think everyone believes it.

844
00:52:21,376 --> 00:52:21,976
Is it?

845
00:52:21,976 --> 00:52:26,456
And I think also there's a feedback loop within particularly Twitter

846
00:52:26,456 --> 00:52:30,456
where when you're bullish, everyone likes it.

847
00:52:30,696 --> 00:52:30,896
Yeah.

848
00:52:31,276 --> 00:52:37,176
And so that encourages the influencer to post more bullish stuff.

849
00:52:37,916 --> 00:52:39,516
There's this kind of dichotomy.

850
00:52:39,516 --> 00:52:43,456
The mainstream press are constantly negative about Bitcoin until recently.

851
00:52:43,776 --> 00:52:45,856
But it's generally overly bearish.

852
00:52:45,936 --> 00:52:48,376
And everything on Bitcoin Twitter is overly bullish.

853
00:52:48,796 --> 00:52:50,216
And then there's a feedback loop.

854
00:52:50,536 --> 00:52:53,816
And it's like, you know, I saw one going,

855
00:52:53,936 --> 00:52:56,256
Bitcoin's going to hit $2 million or something.

856
00:52:56,836 --> 00:52:59,416
And I think Henrik Zeeberg was like,

857
00:53:00,056 --> 00:53:03,156
why don't we just call it around, you know, X number?

858
00:53:03,536 --> 00:53:06,516
I think it was getting quite close to 5.2 million,

859
00:53:06,516 --> 00:53:12,036
which is a number I figured would be like world GDP.

860
00:53:13,296 --> 00:53:17,356
You know, there's limits, you know, 5 million Bitcoin price.

861
00:53:17,516 --> 00:53:20,156
This cycle means that it's more than world GDP.

862
00:53:21,276 --> 00:53:23,936
And so, you know, we're hitting ceilings.

863
00:53:24,176 --> 00:53:29,056
So it's just this feedback loop within this little microcosm called X, you know.

864
00:53:29,416 --> 00:53:29,576
Yeah.

865
00:53:30,116 --> 00:53:36,236
So in part one, you said that during the 2008 crisis, the dollar was the safest asset.

866
00:53:36,516 --> 00:53:38,776
What's the safest asset today?

867
00:53:40,656 --> 00:53:45,396
In a flight to safety, the dollar is the thing that's not going to drop.

868
00:53:46,016 --> 00:53:46,616
Still today.

869
00:53:46,936 --> 00:53:49,076
I didn't say that was necessarily safe.

870
00:53:49,676 --> 00:53:51,736
Well, maybe in a flight to safety, it's safe.

871
00:53:52,956 --> 00:53:55,376
So, yeah, I don't think it's changed.

872
00:53:56,536 --> 00:54:02,276
The flight to safety, I think, happened over four to six weeks, right, as the whole system

873
00:54:02,276 --> 00:54:03,276
deleveraged.

874
00:54:03,276 --> 00:54:06,196
so if we're in a crisis like that

875
00:54:06,196 --> 00:54:09,376
the safest place has been the US dollar

876
00:54:09,376 --> 00:54:11,076
because that's a world reserve currency

877
00:54:11,076 --> 00:54:12,776
it depends on the crisis

878
00:54:12,776 --> 00:54:15,496
I quite like the Swiss franc

879
00:54:15,496 --> 00:54:17,836
if that was like the yen

880
00:54:17,836 --> 00:54:20,676
these are like safe haven fiat currencies

881
00:54:20,676 --> 00:54:24,296
as we know these fiat is not a safe place

882
00:54:24,296 --> 00:54:25,736
to put things long term

883
00:54:25,736 --> 00:54:28,296
but we're talking about an unwinding of leverage

884
00:54:28,296 --> 00:54:31,036
and those are the places to put it

885
00:54:31,036 --> 00:54:36,456
How do you expect Bitcoin to behave when the next big financial crisis hits?

886
00:54:37,796 --> 00:54:40,096
It'll go down like everything.

887
00:54:40,396 --> 00:54:44,116
When crises hit, everything goes down and there's a shakeout

888
00:54:44,116 --> 00:54:47,096
and then some assets will outperform.

889
00:54:47,316 --> 00:54:49,296
The last one was gold, right?

890
00:54:49,396 --> 00:54:52,916
Because there was very little trust in the banking system

891
00:54:52,916 --> 00:54:54,196
because it was shook.

892
00:54:55,036 --> 00:54:59,116
The banking system is basically the creation of our money.

893
00:54:59,116 --> 00:55:03,836
and so gold has always been the place to go to.

894
00:55:04,016 --> 00:55:06,696
Bitcoin would do very well in that type of situation as well.

895
00:55:07,256 --> 00:55:09,536
Do you think the Swiss franc will remain stable

896
00:55:09,536 --> 00:55:11,696
through the crisis, through this next one?

897
00:55:12,176 --> 00:55:13,156
I think it'll be strong.

898
00:55:13,316 --> 00:55:15,596
Historically, it's one that's strong.

899
00:55:16,836 --> 00:55:17,636
It's stronger than the gold.

900
00:55:17,636 --> 00:55:19,176
Remember, when we're talking about this,

901
00:55:19,236 --> 00:55:27,096
this is like over a period of weeks in a shock system.

902
00:55:27,236 --> 00:55:28,696
We're not talking about a bear market.

903
00:55:29,116 --> 00:55:36,136
A bear market, I mean, even then, I mean, is assuming the system staying up.

904
00:55:37,236 --> 00:55:42,356
Like, it's very hard for a bear market to see things climb against US dollars.

905
00:55:42,596 --> 00:55:43,396
Commodities might.

906
00:55:44,756 --> 00:55:46,556
What's Bitcoin's biggest risk?

907
00:55:48,916 --> 00:55:50,196
Centralization of the supply.

908
00:55:51,476 --> 00:55:54,616
I think most of the other risks we can work around.

909
00:55:54,616 --> 00:55:56,856
quantum computing, all these types of things,

910
00:55:56,956 --> 00:55:59,396
the code base we can fix.

911
00:56:00,016 --> 00:56:03,956
Even if it forks, we can bring it back on track.

912
00:56:04,016 --> 00:56:04,816
It's happened before.

913
00:56:05,636 --> 00:56:07,176
It's been pretty battle-tested.

914
00:56:07,516 --> 00:56:09,816
The centralization of the supply is the highest risk

915
00:56:09,816 --> 00:56:13,376
because that opens up nationalization of the supply.

916
00:56:13,796 --> 00:56:15,316
And how do you sort that one out?

917
00:56:16,756 --> 00:56:18,236
Self-custody, yeah.

918
00:56:18,956 --> 00:56:21,416
Self-custody needs to be prevalent.

919
00:56:22,216 --> 00:56:26,776
These Bitcoin treasury companies, they are a risk to the system.

920
00:56:27,276 --> 00:56:30,716
Imagine if 50% of the supply goes and gets wrapped up in these companies.

921
00:56:31,016 --> 00:56:32,656
They can be completely nationalized.

922
00:56:32,756 --> 00:56:33,716
And we've done that before.

923
00:56:34,176 --> 00:56:36,436
We've seen that being done before.

924
00:56:36,516 --> 00:56:37,876
And that's how we got to fee it.

925
00:56:39,276 --> 00:56:53,034
We had gold as money for 6 years And it was medium exchange and store of value everything and then in the 19th century we started making the gold redeemable for paper notes

926
00:56:53,134 --> 00:56:56,574
So now the store of value is sitting in a vault held by a bank.

927
00:56:57,234 --> 00:56:59,974
By the 20th century, it was all sitting in Fort Knox

928
00:56:59,974 --> 00:57:02,334
and everyone's trading US dollars around it.

929
00:57:02,934 --> 00:57:03,854
And then what happened?

930
00:57:03,974 --> 00:57:07,374
The redeemability got snipped and now we have fiat

931
00:57:07,374 --> 00:57:09,194
and the whole world got rugged into fiat

932
00:57:09,194 --> 00:57:11,474
through this kind of a

933
00:57:11,474 --> 00:57:14,374
it took a couple hundred years to do it

934
00:57:14,374 --> 00:57:17,354
now the same thing can happen to Bitcoin

935
00:57:17,354 --> 00:57:21,614
if it doesn't get used as a medium of exchange

936
00:57:21,614 --> 00:57:23,534
if people aren't self-custodying

937
00:57:23,534 --> 00:57:26,254
we're all just happy with our micro strategy shares

938
00:57:26,254 --> 00:57:27,694
and our ETF shares

939
00:57:27,694 --> 00:57:30,294
store value is sitting in these vaults

940
00:57:30,294 --> 00:57:32,014
these cold storage vaults

941
00:57:32,014 --> 00:57:33,514
that are owned by the company

942
00:57:33,514 --> 00:57:34,694
who have the private keys

943
00:57:34,694 --> 00:57:36,114
and that can totally be nationalized

944
00:57:36,114 --> 00:57:37,454
and the same history repeats

945
00:57:37,454 --> 00:57:39,634
and that's a huge risk to the system

946
00:57:39,634 --> 00:57:41,914
because we've taken 16 years to get this point

947
00:57:41,914 --> 00:57:45,594
and it's been the hard work of so many people

948
00:57:45,594 --> 00:57:49,234
and communities and everything that's gone into the Bitcoin

949
00:57:49,234 --> 00:57:53,834
and if it gets rugged now or 10 years from now

950
00:57:53,834 --> 00:57:56,514
and our little experiment called Bitcoin

951
00:57:56,514 --> 00:57:58,914
that reached multiple trillions

952
00:57:58,914 --> 00:58:02,294
just got turned into a gold story

953
00:58:02,294 --> 00:58:04,134
where it got rugged into fiat again.

954
00:58:04,274 --> 00:58:05,014
That's the risk.

955
00:58:05,654 --> 00:58:06,954
What do you think is more probable

956
00:58:06,954 --> 00:58:11,414
that the US government will nationalize, for example, Coinbase,

957
00:58:11,654 --> 00:58:16,694
the custodial of most of the ETFs, or the Bitcoin miners in Texas?

958
00:58:18,254 --> 00:58:23,394
I think Marathon Digital is the only one that's really holding a lot of Bitcoins.

959
00:58:23,834 --> 00:58:30,034
They may be mining, and that's effectively providing security in the network.

960
00:58:30,714 --> 00:58:33,894
But you can nationalize those companies, sure.

961
00:58:33,894 --> 00:58:37,094
but the mining network is worldwide and global

962
00:58:37,094 --> 00:58:39,494
and so miners will move elsewhere

963
00:58:39,494 --> 00:58:41,794
and spin up new mining capacity.

964
00:58:42,234 --> 00:58:44,554
They'll go to where the cheapest power is.

965
00:58:45,554 --> 00:58:48,774
Who holds those Bitcoins that have been mined

966
00:58:48,774 --> 00:58:49,994
is the issue.

967
00:58:50,834 --> 00:58:52,934
Marathon Digital holds the most out of the miners.

968
00:58:53,574 --> 00:58:54,414
Right, it doesn't hold it.

969
00:58:54,414 --> 00:58:55,254
Yeah, they hold a little bit.

970
00:58:55,394 --> 00:58:58,914
Marathon by far holds the biggest chunk of it

971
00:58:58,914 --> 00:59:02,914
but that's nothing compared to the amount

972
00:59:02,914 --> 00:59:06,134
that strategy holds and the ETF holds, right?

973
00:59:06,314 --> 00:59:10,474
And so what's the point of nationalizing the miners

974
00:59:10,474 --> 00:59:12,734
that are providing security onto the network

975
00:59:12,734 --> 00:59:14,854
when that can be spun up anywhere?

976
00:59:15,154 --> 00:59:17,694
That's quite decentralized in a way.

977
00:59:18,114 --> 00:59:19,794
So the supply is the risk.

978
00:59:19,794 --> 00:59:21,054
The supply is the risk.

979
00:59:21,234 --> 00:59:23,014
What could outperform Bitcoin?

980
00:59:24,014 --> 00:59:25,414
And what are you betting on?

981
00:59:27,014 --> 00:59:29,434
I tell you, a lot of things will outperform Bitcoin.

982
00:59:31,114 --> 00:59:32,154
Very, very few.

983
00:59:32,154 --> 00:59:34,334
I don't know of anything that can outperform Bitcoin

984
00:59:34,334 --> 00:59:37,254
adjusted for the risk you're taking.

985
00:59:38,454 --> 00:59:41,514
The return's relatively easy to understand.

986
00:59:41,614 --> 00:59:44,394
The risk you're taking is usually very hard in other investments.

987
00:59:44,974 --> 00:59:48,254
Bitcoin's risks are very, very low if you're self-custodying,

988
00:59:49,014 --> 00:59:51,134
if you're willing to handle the volatility,

989
00:59:51,394 --> 00:59:52,394
particularly bear markets.

990
00:59:52,394 --> 00:59:57,514
For myself, I'm more inclined to invest in Bitcoin infrastructure,

991
00:59:57,974 --> 01:00:00,794
startup ventures, because they will outperform Bitcoin

992
01:00:00,794 --> 01:00:01,654
if they're successful.

993
01:00:02,154 --> 01:00:04,974
If they're not, you can lose everything, right?

994
01:00:05,094 --> 01:00:07,534
So it's higher up the risk curve and higher returns.

995
01:00:08,254 --> 01:00:10,954
I think it's a worthy thing to do to invest in the infrastructure.

996
01:00:11,554 --> 01:00:15,714
And I think it's lower risk than other startup ventures

997
01:00:15,714 --> 01:00:19,734
because you've got the tailwinds of Bitcoin growing from $2 trillion

998
01:00:19,734 --> 01:00:23,114
to potentially $200 trillion in the next 10, 20 years.

999
01:00:23,314 --> 01:00:24,494
So that's a huge tailwind.

1000
01:00:25,214 --> 01:00:31,454
These companies, if they get any kind of size beyond the early phases,

1001
01:00:31,454 --> 01:00:33,134
they should have a Bitcoin treasury.

1002
01:00:34,094 --> 01:00:35,454
So that's going to grow as well.

1003
01:00:36,274 --> 01:00:38,414
So there's a lot of de-risking

1004
01:00:38,414 --> 01:00:40,194
in these types of investments

1005
01:00:40,194 --> 01:00:42,794
if you can handle how to navigate them.

1006
01:00:43,174 --> 01:00:45,274
A few quick ones before we wrap up.

1007
01:00:45,514 --> 01:00:46,894
What's your strongest conviction

1008
01:00:46,894 --> 01:00:49,314
for the rest of 2025?

1009
01:00:51,434 --> 01:00:53,174
That a bear market's going to hit.

1010
01:00:53,754 --> 01:00:54,894
It's going to hit in 2025.

1011
01:00:55,814 --> 01:00:57,794
It's going to hit soon.

1012
01:00:58,314 --> 01:00:59,514
If it doesn't hit 2025,

1013
01:01:00,034 --> 01:01:01,374
you should be getting ready for it.

1014
01:01:01,454 --> 01:01:03,934
That's my opinion.

1015
01:01:03,934 --> 01:01:06,474
But don't trust me, do your own research, right?

1016
01:01:06,474 --> 01:01:08,694
So what's one thing you're still not sure about?

1017
01:01:08,694 --> 01:01:11,134
I'm not sure about the centralization risk.

1018
01:01:11,134 --> 01:01:15,614
I'm not sure how this is all going to play out, whether or not Bitcoin will actually work

1019
01:01:15,614 --> 01:01:19,254
because of the centralization powers that play right now.

1020
01:01:19,254 --> 01:01:25,694
Give me your Bitcoin price call for December 25 and for the midterms in November 26.

1021
01:01:25,694 --> 01:01:27,694
Didn't I say I don't do predictions anymore?

1022
01:01:27,694 --> 01:01:30,014
Yeah, I'm just testing, just trying.

1023
01:01:30,014 --> 01:01:33,134
Maybe you forgot, you know, it was like 20 minutes ago when you said it.

1024
01:01:33,134 --> 01:01:38,514
I could be, I'm pretty sure it's not going to go negative like Peter Zeehan says.

1025
01:01:39,294 --> 01:01:41,594
So how's that for a prediction?

1026
01:01:43,414 --> 01:01:44,014
That's it?

1027
01:01:44,234 --> 01:01:46,754
So for December 2025, they don't give us anything.

1028
01:01:47,234 --> 01:01:48,874
It depends if we're topped or not, right?

1029
01:01:49,014 --> 01:01:53,074
And I think we're, it's like we're playing chicken with a freight train, you know, when

1030
01:01:53,074 --> 01:01:54,974
we're looking at how close to the top we get.

1031
01:01:55,154 --> 01:01:55,314
Yeah.

1032
01:01:55,854 --> 01:01:57,294
Yeah, we know that the top's coming.

1033
01:01:57,294 --> 01:02:03,494
and what's a lesson you learned the hard way that you wouldn't trade for anything

1034
01:02:03,494 --> 01:02:12,354
can you narrow it down no i was hoping you could there must be a lesson there or a few

1035
01:02:12,354 --> 01:02:22,194
the lessons to learn are really the ones the most important are the ones on how to manage yourself

1036
01:02:22,194 --> 01:02:25,274
how to manage your mind, how to manage your emotions,

1037
01:02:25,714 --> 01:02:27,254
how to know yourself, I think.

1038
01:02:27,334 --> 01:02:28,074
Those are the lessons.

1039
01:02:28,254 --> 01:02:32,334
I think they're lifelong lessons and you never get there,

1040
01:02:32,454 --> 01:02:33,574
but know yourself.

1041
01:02:33,954 --> 01:02:35,854
Why is it so difficult to know yourself?

1042
01:02:36,494 --> 01:02:37,854
Because I believe we're infinite.

1043
01:02:38,634 --> 01:02:39,574
It just keeps going.

1044
01:02:40,414 --> 01:02:40,594
Yeah.

1045
01:02:41,054 --> 01:02:44,114
Thank you for your time in this generous conversation, Willie.

1046
01:02:44,354 --> 01:02:46,354
Where can people follow you and your work?

1047
01:02:46,354 --> 01:02:54,534
The easiest way is to get on X and look for my handle, Unomic, my profile links to the other stuff.

1048
01:02:54,854 --> 01:02:57,554
Can't wait to have you back. Until then, stay sovereign.

1049
01:02:57,914 --> 01:02:58,414
Thanks, Eke.