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Well, hey, everybody. Welcome to the new Unlimited Hangout video podcast. I'm Whitney Webb,

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founding and contributing editor of unlimited hangout hey Whitney nice to be

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here I'm Mark Goodwin I also help out at unlimited hangout and doing the

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production for the show very fun happy to be here on our first episode thanks

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for having me yeah of course it turns out you'll be on every yeah that's how

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we planned it anyway so you didn't say it in your intro of yourself but you also

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write for unlimited hangout beyond just helping out that's true and people may

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have noticed that our most recent article written by by you and me about

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polymarket created a little bit of a stir stir that's the best word for it

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yeah yes yes so that happened but before we get into that I guess we should talk

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about why we're doing a show because I don't know you may have noticed that

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there's been videos of me that aren't like videos I have done in the past on

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YouTube of course that's because they're not me they're something else yeah well

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I've talked about it before you may if you follow me on Twitter X whatever you

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may have seen my pinned tweet which is about you know an AI impersonation

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problem I've had for a few years. Talked to James Corbett about it a few years ago. But basically,

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if you've been watching a video of me on YouTube in the past like two years, there's like a 90%

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chance I had nothing to do with it. And it's not even me or it's either an AI me or AI slop of me.

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So the best way to fight that, I guess is, you know, we have to make our own YouTube channel to

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be able to report spam or impersonations on YouTube. This is this is how we have to fight

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the sloppocalypse in general is just make original content and do cool stuff.

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Put yourself out there. Hang out. You know, it's kind of a...

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Obviously, we write dense articles. We got a lot of dense stuff to talk about today.

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But be original, be sincere, be yourself.

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And, you know, obviously we're not going to be as, you know, like to the point as if we were running some AI slop teleprompter thing, you know.

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But we're humans and that's what's cool about us. Yeah humans and here we are to do some human stuff

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And we wrote about some humans with this piece. Yes, hello fellow humans

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and we wrote about some humans in this in this piece and

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You know obviously we got some some interesting reactions from humans when we put out this piece

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You know we want to obviously get into the piece

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but we do think it's maybe an important coloring just before we have this discussion of like

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we got a bunch of crazy feedback and a bunch of people said a bunch of mean yeah well it's kind of

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one of those microcosms of what it's like to make content today yeah like especially if you're a

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writer of long form articles as we are yes um because people like react intensely without

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reading anything oh yeah um and it's funny because most of that comes from the the crowd of people

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that claim to be like against that and claim to be like the facts over feelings people and are now,

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you know, since 2024, pretty much the opposite. Yeah. Yeah. So our article, I guess we should

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talk about it for people that haven't seen it, was about Polymarket, the now, you know,

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almost ubiquitous prediction market platform. Yeah. That's done a bunch of media partnerships

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and we'll talk about this at a future date because this is part one that we published.

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We have a part two, but they have plans to change the future of journalism forever,

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among other things, forever.

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So yeah, we'll be talking about that at a future date.

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But part one is basically just about the origins and context that created Polymarket.

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And so to promote the piece, I mentioned one, I thought, interesting nugget

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because it's the most obvious thing, I guess, that Shane Copeland, the Polymarket founder,

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Right.

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Explicitly tried to obfuscate from his past. So I made a little note of that in the tweet

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being like, look at what they obfuscated, which was a tie to a previous company he's

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never talked about called Token Union or Token Bank or like very, very few articles. And there's

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been tons written about the guy.

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Right.

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it but none really looked in even with those references there was no discussion

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of the company really at all so obviously we discussed it and we one of

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the things we mentioned in the tweet or I mentioned in the tweet was that it was

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intimately integrated with and connected to Bancor which is which was co-founded

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by Benjamin Netanyahu's niece and nephew and so like because of that even though

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later on in the tweet I talked about what the articles really about which is

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how Polymarket is essentially a privatized DARPA program from the early 2000s.

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So it's really about DARPA and like the Peter Thiel verse and US intelligence.

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People just assumed it was all about like Israel.

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And so we got a lot of accusations about being anti-Semitic and like other stuff that wasn't

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really related to the piece at all.

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So it's just kind of one of those examples where people like harp in on something.

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And of course, the people that were most mad are like either Polymarket fanboys or employees of platforms that are partnered with Polymarket.

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Right.

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X itself or formerly Twitter.

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Yeah.

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Being a big one.

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And so Nikita Beer, is that how you say his name?

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I don't know.

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I don't know.

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That guy.

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Yeah.

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Called you mentally ill.

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Yeah.

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Well, a lot of people that were triggered by it that also admittedly didn't read the article called us mentally ill.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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Which, you know, Whitney was just using an example basically to say this guy's origin

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story is full of shit, which it is.

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And the example she happened to use involved the name Netanyahu and Israeli VCs and Israeli

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interests, these advisors that were at that company he was doing before.

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Polymarket, all of it is true.

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Article has absolutely nothing to do with Jews or Israel or whatever.

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It's ridiculous.

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the article it has way more to do with the privatization of military programs

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and so we're getting into all that right now but we wanted to just start that off

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at the top it's like one of the reasons why we're doing this show in general

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despite the AI impersonation thing that Whitney talked about is like people

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don't read that much and we want to make sure that you know we're able to

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explain ourselves and tell the story for those that don't read so the secret

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history of Paulie market part one from a limited hangout comm from Whitney Webb

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and mark goodwin here we are so i guess a good place to start is just like what is a prediction

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market i guess and this idea of a prediction market is well hey let's set up a market just

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like we have for financial products commodities you know currencies stocks equities bonds whatever

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let's create a market just like that buyers and sellers but for you know predictive outcomes so

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you know world cups blowing up right now so uh you know argentina will argentina win the world cup

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yes or no it's this binary outcome and you can vote on who's going to win the world cup is

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argentina going to win the world cup and you can buy essentially like shares in the yes or shares

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in the no and then of course there are non-binary outcomes like you know who will be the next fed

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chair, you know, Kevin Warsh or, you know, Nancy Sheldon, Judy Sheldon or whatever.

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And, you know, there can be more than two.

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There can be like four or five and you can buy shares based on that.

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So prediction markets are sort of a simple idea, but with really crazy consequences and

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intentions and just, you know, real world applications that are very interesting and

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that we're going to get into all that before we get into all that of like where it's going,

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which is mostly what part two is going to be like.

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You know, we kind of have to explain like who created these, where did they come from?

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Right.

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And what are they doing now?

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Right.

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So as we know in the article, basically the first prediction market came out in the late

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eighties, University of Iowa.

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It was like an academic experiment and they got a waiver from the CFTC to operate their

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prediction market as long as it was run solely for academic purposes.

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And I think experimental purposes also.

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Yeah.

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timing on that it was it was founded in 88 or started I forget the exact little

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bit before but it was around the first Bush senior yeah the 1988 presidential

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election which is interesting because even like years later you know poly

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market it's a rise to popularity is generally also coincided with US

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presidential election smart okay so sometimes anyway that was basically kind

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of a closed system like anyone could apply but they couldn promote it and you could the amount of money you could wager on any given thing was was pretty small but then this guy who we be talking a lot about named uh robin hansen developed this

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idea called uh of idea futures right in the early 90s and he had been sort of like a contractor for

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lockheed and nasa writing about a ai back then right bayesian statistics and some other things

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um very interesting libertarian coded thinker for sure right very interesting dude uh anyway um he

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teamed up with these other guys who had read his paper and in 1994 created the foresight exchange

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right which was basically the first iteration of the modern prediction market that we know

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of now where basically you could uh bet on all sorts of ideas right essentially it's idea of

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futures uh but it was play money right not real money um and after that um we basically you know

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just in sort of writing the narrative there's a couple prediction markets that came up in the late

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90s that we that we didn't include but are sort of referenced later in the page yeah and what was

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trade sports that's it yeah because obviously sports betting and prediction markets since you

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brought up the example of the world cup there's always kind of been a yeah a synergy there you know

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well it's the most like straightforward like uh application of these things because sports betting

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is is a million million multi-billion dollar industry it's really it's really huge and

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who runs these casinos who's the casino yeah well what i was going to say about sports betting is

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is that there's this really interesting book

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that I leaned on a good amount

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for parts of my book,

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One Nation Under Blackmail,

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by Dan Moldea,

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that's basically about how organized crime

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taking over the NFL.

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Right, right.

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To basically, because of sports betting.

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Yeah.

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So that nexus explored in One Nation Under Blackmail,

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obviously in that book,

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as it relates to Jeffrey Epstein,

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it's basically about intelligence and organized crime.

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Right.

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They've been really big into sports for a long time,

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so interesting.

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And just casino stuff in general. I mean, that's what, that's one of the main ways that these guys, you know, I mean, you look at the power nexus that's in power right now. I mean, it's casino guys. It's, you know, Trump blew up.

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Yeah, we have a lot to say about that later on, but that might be in the part two video.

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Yeah, for sure. And then I think the other really big thing to talk about at the beginning of this sort of, you know, is the jurisdictional issues with using, you know, regulate highly regulated currency, right? Like there's a lot of a lot of the early digital currency stuff came out of like the poker community. I mean, the original Bitcoin client had a poker client, like remnants of it within the original code.

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You know, you look at a Brock Pierce, like a Tether founder, and like they're doing all this digital good stuff and like video games.

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But that whole nexus was all about kind of like getting money offshore via these instruments.

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And prediction markets, you know, we'll get into a little bit here later.

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But like they really don't work.

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They weren't able to be popularized in the way polymarket is without cryptocurrency existing.

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Yeah, well, get into that.

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for a lot of reasons jurisdictional reasons legislation reasons and and also just like 24

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7 internet you know markets so a lot of the stuff that these guys were doing early on they weren't

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able to scale because they they had to be closed boxes because of the way the economics of it worked

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and now with cryptocurrency you know it's a much yeah much so in keeping with the chronology here

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though it's interesting you brought that up because the guy that co-founded the next one

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that we talked about in the piece is max kaiser who's at the time i think he was at alex brown

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and sons which is a bank that uh we'll have a piece on later this year about because of its

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executives um who kaiser actually called out at one point but anyway he's best known as a bitcoin

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evangelist or evangelist yeah an eccentric one at that but he created this thing called the hollywood

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stock exchange with the next yeah with another wall street guy or then wall street guy michael

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Burns who's now best known for like a leading role at Lionsgate Films and being a big film

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executive. Yeah. But they created the Hollywood Stock Exchange which again was still play money

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but it you know developed this huge following. People were crazy obsessed with it. Yeah. The

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ones that were into it and people were paying real money for these fake portfolios on this

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play money exchange. And they created they created you know the patents that basically

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set up the digital security space.

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You know, Kaiser is very, you know, and I kind of grew up on the Kaiser Report.

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You know, I really enjoy his work with him and Stacey on that show.

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I think they did really good journalism there.

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But, you know, and part of his, you know, turning into being a journalist came from his

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experience with the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

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So he created like the virtual security specialist patent or something like that.

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I apologize, Max, for getting that wrong.

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and then pretty promptly got in a whole bunch of trouble

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even though it was fake money,

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there was a lot of jurisdictional issues,

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legal issues with running the Hollywood Stock Exchange

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and they ended up kind of tearing it apart,

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breaking it down into pieces and the patents

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and the majority of the users and everything that was on it

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got shifted over to Cantor Fritz-Gerrold,

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Our boy, our commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, the bag man for Tether, you know, his firm

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ended up buying it in 2000 or 2001.

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Yeah.

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And I think it was like May of 2001.

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I don't know.

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Yeah, that sounds about right.

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And then promptly moved all of the IP and everything into the big towers there in Manhattan,

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or I should say that used to be there in Manhattan.

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And then a few months later, obviously, the Cantor Fitzgerald office was blown up.

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And with it, you know, any sort of further pushing of the Hollywood Stock Exchange, it kind of ended there at 9-11.

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Yeah, we'll save the Cantor 9-11 story for another time.

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Yeah.

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Yeah, sure.

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Yeah.

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Yeah.

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So, but anyway, basically what Lutnick wanted to do with this is he was like, great idea, but let's take away the play money and make it real money.

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Right.

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Right. Not to interrupt, but for, you know, Cantor is one of the 24 primary dealers of the New York Fed.

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They're the largest bond treasury dealer in the United States and therefore in the world for treasury.

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So him wanting to take this model and apply it with real money is a humongous deal just with who Cantor is.

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Right. No, all good.

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And can I just do my own sidebar and be like, we're one of the few outlets that's been covering Lutnik like a hawk.

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like the end of 2023 before he was part of the trump campaign that's right yeah because there's

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a lot of crazy stuff he's been involved with even recently that has not gotten a lot of attention

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frankly i think we popularized the he's a he's epstein's neighbor i think we kind of we kind

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of blew that up anyways not to well toot our own horns here but anyways have fun run with it just

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a little toot toot but excuse me no it's all good so basically yeah letnik wanted to usher in this

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era of a new type of commodity futures basically uh film futures and so obviously his plans were

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kind of scuppered a little bit by 9 11 and then a few years later yeah thanks and then a few years

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later um they relaunched um or attempted to relaunch but it was during the 2008 economic

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crisis or rather in the aftermath of that and so you know congress was like not into it because

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well presumably they were like our constituents will be mad if we approve this and so eventually

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in some of the the laws that were passed in the wake of the 2008 economic crisis there was like a

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lot of like prejudice text against cantor fitzgerald's right film future plans specifically

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like they literally were like no film futures ever in it which is kind of funny but in in trying to

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to get that to happen he hired lobbyists and some people and one of the guy he hired was this guy

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uh rich jacobs oh yeah who now works for polymarket as like a top guy was hired like two years ago is

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that a thing that happens that old guys like people that worked at in trade or whatever end up

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advising like what's auger anyways we'll get into all that but uh yeah it seems to be kind of a

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reoccurring thing where all of these early 90s like early technological iterations of this they

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like bring all these guys back in and then they do all this stuff later it's so interesting it's

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probably not a coin it is a coincidence i mean um anyways so yes hollywood stock exchange sort

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of wraps that kind of thing yeah so anyway 2001 right is when uh where we were sort of a second

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ago with 9-11 and yeah and hollywood stock exchange so yeah 9-11 scuppered may have scuppered

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cantor's plans but it supercharged the plans of someone else uh to get into the prediction market

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space which is the u.s military uh darpa what do you mean the u.s military took advantage of 9-11

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to to to push initiatives that they had been planning for an extremely long time

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i don't think that you're allowed to say that on youtube we'll find out we'll find out we'll be

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We'll be right back.

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Yeah so after 9 there was this push to basically do a bunch of insane things on the part of the national security state to prevent another 9 from ever happening again even though uh sorry youtube i gonna get that

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little like thing under it about 9-11 and conspiracy theories um do it yeah the national

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security state of the u.s uh at the very least helped 9-11 happen so then you know

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uh sorry well yeah okay yeah well i i believe that and uh i think there's copious evidence for

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that as opposed to osama bin laden with the 1980s cell phone do your own research

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whoa you know we'll get it we'll get a mark on our account for another our first episode

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three marks and you're out um yeah this is why real me is better than ai me because yeah i get

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though under my under my videos no aiu is like total i don't know i don't want to watch it i

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haven't seen it i just yeah yeah long story short 9-11 happened yes whatever happened happened but

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it happened anyway the u.s national security state uh manufactured consent through 9-11

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for all of the stuff they'd wanted to do before right and there's a litany of things that fall

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in that category, one of which being the Department of Homeland Security, which they had introduced

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legislation for in January, like February 2001. So there's all sorts of stuff in that category.

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But after 9-11, there was something they wanted to do. Also, they justified after the attacks,

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that was really the resurrection of something that was going on under Reagan in the 1980s,

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or the Reagan Bush administration. And so it's no surprise then that someone that was a holdover

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from that era at least rather the bush uh senior administration because it's reagan bush and then

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bush senior right uh dick cheney who had been uh yeah oh my god uh defense secretary um under bush

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senior obviously vice president under george w bush he's the one that pushed for this uh this guy

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named john poindexter who had previously been the top official in the reagan administration indicted

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for his role in iran contra um have and come lead this office uh at darpa a brand new office that

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had actually been poindexter's idea right called the information awareness office that i've been

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pretty much writing about for six years on and off um but what's interesting about this is that

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a lot of the stuff that's in the information awareness office actually goes back to stuff that

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Poindexter as basically being Oliver North's boss in Iran-Contra was helping facilitate.

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And these are very controversial things from Iran-Contra that aren't talked about a lot

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because it's misremembered, I would argue, as an arms for hostage scandal.

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It's really much bigger than that in interfaces with a lot of other scandals of that era,

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BCCI, among other things.

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If you want to know all the details of that, you can read my books.

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But basically one of the things that he wanted to do there and was overseeing with North was continuity of government protocols.

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The goal of which was basically to label American citizens as dissidents and create sort of a way to deal with unrest or even massive nonviolent protests against U.S. military intervention abroad.

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deal with all of these things by creating a list of Americans that could be, have their rights

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suspended basically if the government wanted to. Wanted to. And so that is intimately related to

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at least some of the projects that the Information Awareness Office later went on to pursue. So

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you know, it seems pretty clear to me that Poindexter was brought in to resurrect that stuff

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that had sort of been scandalous back in the 80s now that enough time had passed and people were

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very stressed about national security after 9 11 now was the time uh and this isn't just like a

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theory you have i mean this is stuff that like these guys are stating like overtly like whether

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it's in the private sector or or like at the pentagon but you know like folks like larry ellison

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who's in that middle ground of like he's technically private sector but like oracle started as project

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oracle in the cia and he writes this big you know piece i feel like we brought this up a bunch of

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times but wrote this big piece you know in the new york times about you know how like we need a

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national database like like days after 9 11 for national security right well this national this

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this database of everybody yeah so that's interesting you brought that up yeah so the the

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big narrative from the people that were intimately involved in 9 11 like the cia and co was like after

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9 11 they were like oh well the reason this happened is because not all of our databases

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aren't really mush into one giant database yeah so the push for that has been going on data issue

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so perfectly into it and used with prediction markets yeah and actually poindexter before

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this push after 9 11 had been working for six years on this darpa program specifically about

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how to manage data if it stopped being siloed data called genoa um yeah so anyway sounds like a nice

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salami genoa okay keep going

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now leaving it that's fine um remembering what i was talking about

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yeah so this office he made and or that was made for him

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courtesy of cheney the information awareness office

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um creates all of these different uh programs one of which was genoa

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with the goal of obtaining total information awareness,

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which as the name sounds,

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awareness of all information period.

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So this was basically a huge dragnet surveillance program

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that was going to suck up everything about every American

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they could possibly obtain data wise.

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And obviously this is in the early internet.

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So they knew where the internet was going

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because the internet was also out of DARPA

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is basically a military project in its own right.

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But basically scupper up all this,

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you know, or hoover up all of this data on Americans

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from, you know, not just your like finances,

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but like what you're reading and consuming,

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what food you're buying, what medication you're on.

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I mean, pretty much everything you can think of

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was supposed to go into this.

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And it was the way they said they were going to stop

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terrorist attacks from happening again was harvesting all of this data and then searching

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for anomalies in that data and then going on to predict which is the key point here predict in the

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context of polymarket predict what would happen before it happens so prevent terrorist attacks

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before they happen and there was also a subsect there to prevent pandemics before they happen

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and because they wanted to surveil the wastewater and the sewage which now they're doing they did

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under Trump last time in 2020 under COVID. I have an article about that. But basically,

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it was a huge insane dragnet and all of these different programs within it were meant to

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interface together and then be sort of, the jewel on the crown was TIA, Total Information Awareness,

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which was meant to plug into all of these different things and then assess the data and

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decide who's a terrorist and who's not basically based on all of that data.

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And so one of the programs within the Information Awareness Office was called FutureMap.

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And within that, there was another program called the Policy Analysis Market.

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Yes, or PAM.

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P-A-M.

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Sorry for all the acronyms, guys, but that's what happens when you talk about government stuff.

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They're like very acronym happy.

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Yes.

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Yes. So then Pam was, they brought in none other than Robin Hanson, who we mentioned a bit ago, to be basically the system architect of that. And there was also another company involved in another iteration that were all the people from the University of Iowa. First prediction market, they were kind of involved too. And then in trade that you sort of brought up, they were consulting and advising. So this was more or less, more or less the people involved there.

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And basically the policy analysis market originally was going to focus on more than just the Middle East, but because, you know, they were trying to get a lot of their data from the intelligence unit of The Economist, the paper, they found their services very costly.

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And so instead of doing the entire world focus on eight countries in the Middle East, because, you know, 9-11, the war on terror, the focus was on the Middle East.

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Iraq, Afghanistan.

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And so, yes, and so they basically created, you know, an idea futures market about these countries, but it wasn't just, it was about all sorts of things, economic indicators, but also political ones, and then how those would combine.

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So it was technically a combinatorial market, which Hansen had also done a lot of work on previously.

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And so basically you have, you know, PAM attempting to launch and drumming up interest.

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They originally wanted to have people from the CIA and intelligence community be the people participating in the market.

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But they say they couldn't get enough interest.

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Or rather that they couldn't have agencies compete at first because of issues with transferring money between federal intelligence agencies.

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And then tried to do it all within one intelligence agency and couldn I guess didn find any interested players And so they went straight to the public and that various you know I guess insiders or experts were allowed to

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participate. But it never actually launched, right? There was a big uproar about it because a couple

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of senators found out and did a press conference. They branded it the terrorism futures market. And

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And then after that, just infinite negative press.

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Yeah.

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I mean, imagine that, like, that just you're in the public and you don't know anything

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about these things.

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And then you see it's like, like, DARPA is doing a market where you can bet on the next

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911.

355
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I mean, that's basically what they said.

356
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Yeah.

357
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And also kind of basically what they were doing.

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Yeah.

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But the idea is, you know, hey, the markets are always perfect and always right.

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The wisdom of the markets.

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The wisdom of the markets.

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A way to harness the collective human, the wisdom of crowds.

363
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Right.

364
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Yes.

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And I mean, there is something to that and collective humanity and whatever.

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But I think in the hands of people like John Poindexter, a literal Iran Contra felon who

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was like head of that chat or de facto head of that shadow government and like an insane

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scandal that involved intelligence and organized crime and the same people that brought you

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Jeffrey Epstein.

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Right.

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And this will be a huge part of part two.

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And I'm sure I think at this point we'll do another part on part two because there's

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a lot to talk about but this concept of like the markets can't be wrong and you know markets are

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better you know than democracy and that's why we should use the information of markets and the

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wisdom of crowds to like dictate policy it doesn't really make sense when you consider that like

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every market in the world is like incredibly rigged and and controlled and so and who actually

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gets and some of the people that are exactly that are big investors and yes so so that's a big that's

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big issue with this whole concept this this isn't really about that concept we'll get into that in

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part two but anyways yes you're right so in july 2003 uh you know the terrorist futures market idiom

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gets gets thrown out there and these two centers they get it shut down and they end up shuttering

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this this whole idea and all of these guys that you know maybe started in the private sector then

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got sucked into the pentagon are now free to to go out into the private sector right so so we're at

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this kind of point where like the information awareness office is couldn't be more scrutinized

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by the public so but it's not like darpa and and the department of defense you know now department

385
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of war was just like oh but these were bad ideas and let's not do them they're like no these are

386
00:31:52,602 --> 00:31:58,202
great ideas and we want these ideas to happen and if a couple dingbat senators are going to blow this

387
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up for us well we'll take it right out of the public sector and we'll toss it into the private

388
00:32:02,602 --> 00:32:09,242
sector. I mean, more or less, that's what happened. Yeah. So a lot of my work the past few years in

389
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talking about the Information Awareness Office has been about specifically how several programs

390
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at that office were privatized. Right. Largely with the involvement of Peter Thiel, friend of the

391
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show yeah um yeah and so he um so the first time i uh wrote about this was in 2020

392
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uh when palantir got all the warp speed contracts and so you know basically what i was pointing out

393
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there is uh how palantir is privatized total information awareness and it was designed to be

394
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so yeah so when tia was under starting to become under scrutiny they went to congress and changed

395
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the name to terrorism information awareness trying to be like oh we're not trying to spy

396
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on all americans but yes we are yeah but it's terrorists yeah yeah you're all terrorists yeah

397
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i mean it it was just a name change but the program was meant to be the same right um and

398
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then and so congress you know because of the scrutiny and uh people the public backlash they

399
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defunded information awareness but what actually happened is that they didn't actually end the

400
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programs they were a lot of them were moved to different agencies in the national security

401
00:33:21,162 --> 00:33:27,562
community um there was a provision for that actually in the legislation so thanks but no

402
00:33:27,562 --> 00:33:33,882
thanks congress yeah um and uh you know basically total information awareness as soon as that name

403
00:33:33,882 --> 00:33:41,962
change happened uh peter thiel comes yeah uh fresh off of selling paypal to pierre omidyar yeah and

404
00:33:41,962 --> 00:33:48,282
he's got all this money and he's like i'm gonna make this company called palantir and palantir

405
00:33:48,282 --> 00:33:53,802
as we've written about before as well uh had really started off as the anti-fraud algorithm

406
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at paypal yeah uh named igor yeah and uh as we've talked about well i guess not on this show since

407
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this is the first episode right but when paypal was being created uh max levchin sort of uh gave

408
00:34:08,362 --> 00:34:14,042
it away yeah he did this interview with charlie rose uh you know actually around this time and

409
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he said that hey when i was developing all the anti-fraud stuff at paypal you know i was working

410
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with every three and four letter agency that i could meaning you know this is the cia and the dod

411
00:34:25,402 --> 00:34:30,442
and and darpa and and whatever and uh you know they were some of the most fruitful business

412
00:34:30,442 --> 00:34:37,482
relationships i ever had um yada yada so they form paypal in the late 90s they're the first company

413
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to go public after 9 11 you know in the dot-com boom and then they make a bunch of money and it's

414
00:34:43,722 --> 00:34:49,562
teal and levchin admittedly working with the cia and nsa you know while developing these anti-fraud

415
00:34:49,562 --> 00:34:54,282
stuff they create igor which is named after this russian fraudster who was just toying with them

416
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and they figured out a way to defeat this this guy and then they take that algorithm and teal who is

417
00:35:00,762 --> 00:35:07,402
you know buddies buddies with poindexter uh and you know ends up you know kind of being advised by him

418
00:35:07,402 --> 00:35:11,562
and he takes that anti-fraud algorithm which was built with the cia in the private sector

419
00:35:11,562 --> 00:35:19,642
and then rebrands it as palantir i i mean so so this is getting shut down in july 2003

420
00:35:19,642 --> 00:35:24,282
and palantir is coming out i mean literally the exact same time right well i think they were

421
00:35:24,282 --> 00:35:29,322
incorporated even earlier right it was around the name change but basically you know as they're

422
00:35:29,322 --> 00:35:35,882
setting it up they they go through richard pearl who was involved with the bush era department of

423
00:35:35,882 --> 00:35:38,902
of Defense and I believe the Office of Special Plans.

424
00:35:38,902 --> 00:35:39,242
Okay.

425
00:35:39,902 --> 00:35:43,262
And he was basically this arc neocon that has this long history.

426
00:35:43,642 --> 00:35:44,202
Arc neocon.

427
00:35:44,282 --> 00:35:45,202
He is, though.

428
00:35:45,382 --> 00:35:47,982
I mean, he's like one of the key neoconservative guys.

429
00:35:48,142 --> 00:35:52,762
I mean, he was also, you know, in talking about bridging like U.S.-Israeli national security

430
00:35:52,762 --> 00:35:54,622
interests, like back in the 80s.

431
00:35:54,682 --> 00:35:54,842
Right.

432
00:35:54,862 --> 00:35:57,222
And there's all this very controversial history.

433
00:35:57,322 --> 00:35:57,502
Yeah.

434
00:35:57,922 --> 00:36:03,282
Basically being a, you know, more or less a spy for Israel in Congress when he's an aide

435
00:36:03,282 --> 00:36:07,842
to one of the main early neocon congressmen or senators.

436
00:36:08,022 --> 00:36:08,962
I forget which one he was.

437
00:36:10,482 --> 00:36:15,342
But Pearl is in the office or involved with the Department of Defense.

438
00:36:15,682 --> 00:36:18,202
And he's approached by Peter Thiel and Alex Karp.

439
00:36:18,782 --> 00:36:21,882
And they're basically like, we want to talk to John Poindexter

440
00:36:21,882 --> 00:36:24,602
because what he was trying to do is what we want to do.

441
00:36:24,722 --> 00:36:26,502
I mean, and this is admitted in mainstream media.

442
00:36:26,642 --> 00:36:28,782
So please don't tell me this is a conspiracy theory.

443
00:36:28,782 --> 00:36:31,662
This is literally what they plan to do.

444
00:36:31,662 --> 00:36:40,822
And then they go and meet with Poindexter, who becomes named basically the godfather of modern surveillance because of this.

445
00:36:40,822 --> 00:36:40,982
Right.

446
00:36:41,942 --> 00:36:44,942
And advises them on how to create Palantir.

447
00:36:45,042 --> 00:36:49,382
And then Palantir gets in bed pretty much right away with the CIA.

448
00:36:49,382 --> 00:36:50,362
Yeah, first client.

449
00:36:50,362 --> 00:36:50,922
In Qtel.

450
00:36:51,022 --> 00:36:51,182
Right.

451
00:36:52,002 --> 00:36:57,862
And they, I mean, Karp has admitted that the CIA was always the intended client of Palantir.

452
00:36:57,862 --> 00:37:03,622
They were their first and only client for like their first six years as a company.

453
00:37:03,902 --> 00:37:08,182
There's also this amazing ask me anything on Reddit where Peter Thiel gets asked,

454
00:37:08,542 --> 00:37:10,222
is Palantir a front for the CIA?

455
00:37:10,582 --> 00:37:13,742
And he responds, no, the CIA is a front for Palantir.

456
00:37:13,882 --> 00:37:17,082
Now, obviously, he's being a little cheeky, but is he?

457
00:37:17,462 --> 00:37:19,142
Is he being that cheeky?

458
00:37:19,142 --> 00:37:22,302
As we've now seen, you know, since obviously he was onto something there.

459
00:37:22,302 --> 00:37:24,102
Another point that I wanted to mention,

460
00:37:24,102 --> 00:37:31,862
Poindexter is coming from this lineage of like you Navy intelligence where it seems like there's this nexus of a lot of these guys

461
00:37:31,862 --> 00:37:33,862
whether it's L. Ron Hubbard or

462
00:37:34,582 --> 00:37:39,122
You know, maybe even some people related to Sean Parker, which we'll get into here in a little bit

463
00:37:39,122 --> 00:37:45,482
But anyways TIA basically is the privatization or rather Palantir is the privatization of TIA

464
00:37:46,002 --> 00:37:51,782
Teal is the no pun intended the point man alongside point Dexter for that and then

465
00:37:51,782 --> 00:37:59,702
what does he immediately get involved with after that? Yeah, so in 2004, there's

466
00:37:59,702 --> 00:38:04,382
another LifeLog program that gets, or sorry, LifeLog program. LifeLog is a DARPA

467
00:38:04,382 --> 00:38:09,422
program that gets shuttered in the wake of the TIA explosion. It shuts down the

468
00:38:09,422 --> 00:38:15,062
same day that Facebook is launched and the project manager of LifeLog, Douglas

469
00:38:15,062 --> 00:38:19,542
Gage, later on was like, Facebook is exactly what I wanted LifeLog to end up

470
00:38:19,542 --> 00:38:25,442
becoming interesting that and then Peter Thiel fresh off of privatizing total

471
00:38:25,442 --> 00:38:29,442
information awareness and there's some detail we didn't get into there like the

472
00:38:29,442 --> 00:38:33,102
involvement of Alan Wade and how that ties in with all this other stuff and

473
00:38:33,102 --> 00:38:37,302
how the CIA had intimately been involved with TIA yeah and and that's why you

474
00:38:37,302 --> 00:38:41,442
have the CIA and Palantir coming together so early blah blah anyway so

475
00:38:41,442 --> 00:38:46,602
read the article yeah it's all in there totally so LifeLog was basically a way to

476
00:38:46,602 --> 00:38:52,582
to create the goal was to create basically a narration of a person's life and episodes basically

477
00:38:52,582 --> 00:38:58,602
a surveillance log of everything you've ever done in discrete episodes that are tied to like

478
00:38:58,602 --> 00:39:04,682
geolocation like where you are and who you're with yeah with photographic evidence and like

479
00:39:04,682 --> 00:39:07,622
all of this other stuff so like I mean it's literally is Facebook and

480
00:39:07,656 --> 00:39:12,236
But how did that come to be? Well, you know, obviously when Facebook was first launched,

481
00:39:12,396 --> 00:39:18,216
it was, you know, amorphous and there was no, it could have become anything, right? But it was

482
00:39:18,216 --> 00:39:24,416
shaped into this because the people that first really funded it are the PayPal mafia. It was

483
00:39:24,416 --> 00:39:30,516
Reid Hoffman and Peter Thiel. Yeah. And then alongside guys like Ron Conway. Who come from

484
00:39:30,516 --> 00:39:35,796
the Parker Nexus. And obviously Sean Parker's important to the Polymarket story because

485
00:39:35,796 --> 00:39:40,216
Shane Copeland has gone on and on about the Napsterization of finance and that that's what

486
00:39:40,216 --> 00:39:46,236
he is doing. And he gave talks about that at his company before Polymarket and of course after the

487
00:39:46,236 --> 00:39:52,736
fact at Polymarket as well. And, you know, Sean Parker before Facebook and being his first president

488
00:39:52,736 --> 00:39:57,376
created Napster. So I'll let you do a little. Yeah. So Sean Parker, he co-founded Napster

489
00:39:57,376 --> 00:40:02,756
actually with another Sean, Sean Fanning. Interestingly, you know, he just kind of hit

490
00:40:02,756 --> 00:40:06,416
him up, sent him an email and was like, Hey, I, you know, we met on IRC.

491
00:40:06,416 --> 00:40:07,916
What you're doing is really cool.

492
00:40:08,076 --> 00:40:12,136
I want to come out to San Francisco and come check it out and, and, and do that.

493
00:40:12,136 --> 00:40:17,816
But, but you know, long before that fateful email and that IRC meetings, when he was 15

494
00:40:17,816 --> 00:40:21,296
and 16 years old, he was accused.

495
00:40:21,356 --> 00:40:25,756
Um, I don't think he was like formally charged or anything cause he was a minor, but he was

496
00:40:25,756 --> 00:40:30,756
like a, you know, a hacker and he hacked into like a fortune 500 company and, and, you know,

497
00:40:30,756 --> 00:40:37,356
potentially reportedly some military websites and government websites. And he ended up getting,

498
00:40:37,356 --> 00:40:42,436
you know, his like house, you know, quote unquote, raided by the FBI because he had broken into,

499
00:40:42,896 --> 00:40:48,336
you know, some things that he wasn't supposed to. And, you know, at that time, you know,

500
00:40:48,776 --> 00:40:53,476
you know, he became, you know, it's quite an interesting recruitment tool for intelligence

501
00:40:53,476 --> 00:40:58,256
when you are like a hacker. It's a very like rare skill. And we've talked about this before,

502
00:40:58,256 --> 00:41:05,216
but the fact that you know the fbi raids his house and you know as he has admitted uh the cia came

503
00:41:05,216 --> 00:41:11,456
and tried to recruit him um you know at a very young age because of because of this this skill

504
00:41:11,456 --> 00:41:16,736
and interestingly he says that he denied going to the cia which is very possible but much like

505
00:41:16,736 --> 00:41:24,176
levchin levchin great went to the cia or the nsa actually uh upon graduation from a computer

506
00:41:24,176 --> 00:41:29,136
science degree from the university of illinois and he went to the nsa and he said hey you know

507
00:41:29,136 --> 00:41:35,216
ussr fell i came to america i found amazing opportunity here i love america i want to become

508
00:41:35,216 --> 00:41:40,176
an american citizen and i want to use cryptography for the betterment of the nation and then nsa was

509
00:41:40,176 --> 00:41:45,216
like you'll never make a dime doing it that way uh you know you should stay in the private sector

510
00:41:45,216 --> 00:41:50,016
if you want to make any money off of this stuff and then immediately he like flies out crashes

511
00:41:50,016 --> 00:41:55,456
at scott banister's house who's you know becomes the first board member of paypal he's the vp of

512
00:41:55,456 --> 00:42:01,456
idea labs which is the first founder of paypal and uh meets peter teal like institutional investor

513
00:42:01,456 --> 00:42:05,696
yeah teal is the first investor but when you're like a co-founder it's not really like investing

514
00:42:05,696 --> 00:42:11,936
it's like you're just like yeah i know but idea labs is the first investor of paypal other than

515
00:42:11,936 --> 00:42:18,256
peter teal putting in money for them to start the company and um uh you know just crashing on

516
00:42:18,256 --> 00:42:22,896
on Bannister's couch, meets Teal at Stanford, you know, comes up with some ideas. They start PayPal.

517
00:42:23,276 --> 00:42:26,716
Everything that we just said happens right after that. So he literally goes to the NSA, says,

518
00:42:26,796 --> 00:42:30,676
I want to work for you. And they go, no, go to the private sector. He digitizes money.

519
00:42:30,676 --> 00:42:33,516
Go to Scott Bannister's house and then meet Peter Teal instead, Maxie.

520
00:42:33,516 --> 00:42:40,136
So, you know, kind of a similar thing happened with our boy, Sean Parker. He gets arrested,

521
00:42:40,516 --> 00:42:47,656
or rather gets, you know, raided. The FBI sends him to do this long community service thing. And

522
00:42:47,656 --> 00:42:54,616
uh you know ends up meeting a bunch of people including this girlfriend he loses his virginity

523
00:42:54,616 --> 00:42:58,856
he claims because the fbi raided his house which is kind of interesting you know maybe they're

524
00:42:58,856 --> 00:43:03,576
sending him a handler or something who knows i i have no evidence of that but regardless

525
00:43:04,216 --> 00:43:09,896
cia recruits him for hacking after the fbi raids him he says no and he goes he's in the dc area he

526
00:43:09,896 --> 00:43:15,096
was he was born in fairfax county where like langley is and the cia is and all this stuff in dc

527
00:43:15,096 --> 00:43:22,076
because his dad was this longtime government oceanographer who had done all this work for

528
00:43:22,076 --> 00:43:28,696
decades with, you know, basically U.S. intelligence gathering information, whether it's climate change

529
00:43:28,696 --> 00:43:35,836
or whatever, but oceanography and work directly with the Navy and all that. But so he gets

530
00:43:35,836 --> 00:43:43,576
recruited by the CIA. He says no. And he goes and joins Freeloader, which is a company by Marcus

531
00:43:43,576 --> 00:43:50,196
Pincus who ends up becoming you know extremely famous for I mean just being a big part of Facebook in general and later is involved with

532
00:43:50,656 --> 00:43:53,176
Coplin and Polly market which is why we talked about this

533
00:43:53,176 --> 00:43:58,736
But you know he he co-found Zynga which is a huge part of why Facebook becomes what it is

534
00:43:59,176 --> 00:44:04,876
And ends up being I think at one point it's like 10 to 15 percent of all the revenue of Facebook is from Zynga

535
00:44:04,876 --> 00:44:07,176
You know, he's a huge part of the Facebook Nexus

536
00:44:07,656 --> 00:44:11,436
And and so he goes to freeloader and then he goes to unit

537
00:44:11,436 --> 00:44:17,696
which is the DC-based ISP, the first commercial ISP internet service provider that basically took

538
00:44:17,696 --> 00:44:22,536
all of these ex-DARPA officials and ex-government officials and privatized, you know, a lot of the

539
00:44:22,536 --> 00:44:28,116
technology, commercialized a lot of the technology that was developed at DARPA. Interestingly, the

540
00:44:28,116 --> 00:44:33,576
money man behind UNet, Mitch Kapoor, was one of the main guys at Lotus, the co-founder of Lotus.

541
00:44:33,576 --> 00:44:43,216
Lotus, of course, very famously, he was replaced by Jim Manzi, who features prominently in the

542
00:44:43,216 --> 00:44:51,556
Chain series as being a board member of Ghislaine Maxwell's husband's cargo metrics and also of

543
00:44:51,556 --> 00:45:00,796
Paxos, very interesting. And then Bill Gross, who kind of came into this nexus through UNet,

544
00:45:00,796 --> 00:45:06,236
and he is the founder of Idealabs who ends up being the guy that sort of funds Musk and Teal

545
00:45:06,236 --> 00:45:07,996
and all of these guys very early on.

546
00:45:08,116 --> 00:45:12,636
He's the incubator that really takes the privatization of these DARPA projects and blows them up.

547
00:45:12,696 --> 00:45:19,616
So very importantly, Parker is already in this nexus, the Pinkus nexus, the DC, UNet,

548
00:45:19,976 --> 00:45:22,296
gross, Lotus, Mancy nexus.

549
00:45:22,916 --> 00:45:29,456
So very interestingly, Parker is at a very, very, very early age is involved with intelligence

550
00:45:29,456 --> 00:45:33,596
and DC-based privatization of DARPA projects, like before even Napster.

551
00:45:33,936 --> 00:45:38,516
And then he sends an email to Sean Fanning, moves out to San Francisco, co-founds Napster,

552
00:45:39,016 --> 00:45:45,096
and then, of course, ends up becoming this huge mythic internet figure because of what

553
00:45:45,096 --> 00:45:50,256
Napster did, of breaking down all these barriers of peer-to-peer data sharing, and then what

554
00:45:50,256 --> 00:45:53,736
happened with the litigation from the music industry against Napster.

555
00:45:53,736 --> 00:45:59,976
Right. And so basically in doing that, he develops this Napsterization model.

556
00:45:59,976 --> 00:46:06,136
This model. Exactly. Which is used by the Tealverse, the network around Peter Thiel,

557
00:46:07,896 --> 00:46:12,536
just numerous times. And then obviously when Sean Parker, after Facebook goes to work for Peter Thiel

558
00:46:12,536 --> 00:46:18,296
at Founders Fund, they do it there together. But there's a lot of these companies that literally do

559
00:46:18,296 --> 00:46:25,856
that and so it's basically the analogy is Napster and Spotify and that's how

560
00:46:25,856 --> 00:46:31,436
Napsterization works. Yeah so more or less the Napsterization model is

561
00:46:31,436 --> 00:46:36,056
create a disruptive technology which Napster was a peer-to-peer technology of

562
00:46:36,056 --> 00:46:41,636
sending and also a compression algorithm for mp3s. You know you can't have the

563
00:46:41,636 --> 00:46:44,396
peer-to-peer without the compression algorithm otherwise there's these huge

564
00:46:44,396 --> 00:46:50,236
files and they basically create this amazing community of people sharing all of this data

565
00:46:50,236 --> 00:46:54,236
that's completely illegal because a lot of it is copyrighted data but they create this whole

566
00:46:54,236 --> 00:46:58,796
infrastructure and they don't give a and then of course they get sued into oblivion and the company

567
00:46:58,796 --> 00:47:03,436
you know it still exists in some form but you know it's not it's like a legal version of it

568
00:47:03,436 --> 00:47:07,596
now someone bought the brand because it was a big brand but basically naps are disrupted everything

569
00:47:07,596 --> 00:47:12,956
killed the music industry as as it stands now moved everything towards mp3s and streaming

570
00:47:12,956 --> 00:47:18,416
And then years later, after, you know, his joining Facebook was very similar too.

571
00:47:18,516 --> 00:47:25,756
He saw the Facebook.com on like his roommate girlfriend's computer and sent an email to Zuckerberg and was like,

572
00:47:25,816 --> 00:47:26,876
holy shit, this is awesome.

573
00:47:26,976 --> 00:47:28,256
Just like he did with Sean Fanny.

574
00:47:28,256 --> 00:47:30,536
Yeah, and then Zuckerberg's like, come meet me.

575
00:47:30,536 --> 00:47:31,356
And then like, come here.

576
00:47:31,436 --> 00:47:34,496
And then he moves in and then he becomes the first president of Facebook.

577
00:47:34,496 --> 00:47:34,816
Yeah.

578
00:47:35,076 --> 00:47:37,436
Facebook also had a lot of Napsterization issues.

579
00:47:37,576 --> 00:47:40,156
Like there was a lot of questionable legal stuff at the beginning.

580
00:47:40,156 --> 00:47:48,336
um but regardless um napster obviously implodes but then you know years later sean parker becomes

581
00:47:48,336 --> 00:47:52,856
a billionaire from facebook he joins founder's fund i think in 06 and one of the first things

582
00:47:52,856 --> 00:47:58,136
he does is he invests a ton of money into spotify becomes one of their main advisors and now spotify

583
00:47:58,136 --> 00:48:03,916
is the ubiquitous it's taken over itunes it's the descendant of napster right yeah but napster

584
00:48:03,916 --> 00:48:16,922
failed so spotify could succeed exactly the idea is create a disruptive company that is just an experiment Yeah Basically you know it will fail but it changes the definition in people minds of what is

585
00:48:16,922 --> 00:48:20,802
normal or what is acceptable and pushes the envelope with regulation.

586
00:48:20,802 --> 00:48:21,802
Yeah.

587
00:48:21,802 --> 00:48:22,802
And then at a later date, they come.

588
00:48:22,802 --> 00:48:23,802
And?

589
00:48:23,802 --> 00:48:30,262
And now that that disruption is done, they come and they install the company or create

590
00:48:30,262 --> 00:48:33,062
or find the company they want to use as a vehicle for that.

591
00:48:33,062 --> 00:48:39,922
and then they create, as Peter Thiel loves to, monopolies, basically.

592
00:48:39,922 --> 00:48:43,622
And that was, I was going to say, all of these models, they start as a free thing,

593
00:48:44,102 --> 00:48:46,962
and then they turn into, you know, Spotify obviously is a paid service.

594
00:48:47,302 --> 00:48:50,682
So that's another big part of the model is you disrupt, destroy the market,

595
00:48:50,682 --> 00:48:54,922
and then create a paid version of it that is very convenient and legal and all this,

596
00:48:55,182 --> 00:48:56,802
and then everyone throws the money there.

597
00:48:56,822 --> 00:48:59,882
Yeah, so keep that model in mind because Shane Copeland's whole thing,

598
00:48:59,942 --> 00:49:01,902
or I'm calling him Copeland, Copeland, I don't know.

599
00:49:01,902 --> 00:49:07,522
His whole thing is the Napsterization of finance and how Polymarket is doing that.

600
00:49:07,522 --> 00:49:12,342
So we're not just bringing all this stuff up because we're crazy and we're conspiracy theorists and all this stuff.

601
00:49:12,402 --> 00:49:21,942
We're bringing it up because Shane himself says that he is obsessed with the lives of Mark Zuckerberg, Travis Kalanick, who's the Uber founder.

602
00:49:22,782 --> 00:49:28,122
And he starts out his career basically as an intern at Genius Lyrics.

603
00:49:28,902 --> 00:49:31,222
Yeah, or Rap Genius is how it started.

604
00:49:31,222 --> 00:49:35,782
Yeah, he started interning there. So like basically early background on Copeland, Copeland,

605
00:49:35,782 --> 00:49:40,982
whatever. He like felt like he was going to be always out competed by his peers. And he basically

606
00:49:40,982 --> 00:49:46,662
was like, what he's told in profiles on him since obviously, is that I needed to find a different

607
00:49:46,662 --> 00:49:52,342
way to compete. And he basically does that by becoming obsessed with Mark Zuckerberg and Travis

608
00:49:52,342 --> 00:49:56,582
Kalanick in particular, and probably other big tech billionaire founders who he doesn't name,

609
00:49:56,582 --> 00:50:00,502
but those are the two he names. Of course. And that's pretty significant. So at Rap Genius,

610
00:50:01,222 --> 00:50:05,542
it was a the goal was to basically i guess annotate the web which is interesting because

611
00:50:05,542 --> 00:50:11,462
that was actually what the first search engine that the maxwell sisters glane sisters created

612
00:50:11,462 --> 00:50:15,942
uh was also about annotating the whole web interesting but basically rap genius the goal

613
00:50:15,942 --> 00:50:22,502
was to do that but first it launched via you know hip-hop right and gained sort of public uh notoriety

614
00:50:22,502 --> 00:50:29,702
in uh in fame that way um but he became the top editors as an intern for the entries of the big

615
00:50:29,702 --> 00:50:34,662
tech founders like kalanick and like zuckerberg and this was a y combinator company correct yeah

616
00:50:34,662 --> 00:50:40,742
it was a y combinator company which is the you know i guess san francisco base san francisco

617
00:50:40,742 --> 00:50:46,102
yeah it's it's one of the most well-known startup incubators it's very closely connected to teal

618
00:50:46,102 --> 00:50:50,902
at least now it's like a new idea labs but like quicker yeah but they got they got involved with

619
00:50:50,902 --> 00:50:56,822
20 uh uh with y combinator in 2011 which is when conway who you mentioned right um also became

620
00:50:56,822 --> 00:51:02,582
involved there and then sam altman who's a you know at this point widely recognized as a tl protege

621
00:51:02,582 --> 00:51:06,662
becomes a partner there and then a few years later he ends up taking over y combinator yeah

622
00:51:07,302 --> 00:51:12,502
so he's obsessed with these guys he runs into rap rap genius is like let me work for you and then

623
00:51:12,502 --> 00:51:17,382
they're like wow you know so much about all these guys you're so cool and then he you know works for

624
00:51:17,382 --> 00:51:24,502
them or whatever as an intern and then he i believe at that time in 2014 you know he got into the eth

625
00:51:24,502 --> 00:51:31,482
ICO the Ethereum initial point offering and made a bunch of money on ETH and ended up going to San Francisco

626
00:51:32,662 --> 00:51:37,682
To intern at this another another startup that was like an ETH based startup

627
00:51:38,122 --> 00:51:43,602
Incubator called Chronicle that was San Francisco based that they ended up doing some weird like

628
00:51:44,182 --> 00:51:45,182
medical

629
00:51:45,182 --> 00:51:50,922
Chain and medilayer and some other things. But anyways, he like interns over there and then pretty much right after that

630
00:51:50,922 --> 00:51:53,822
that, you know, drops out of college, makes a bunch of money.

631
00:51:53,822 --> 00:51:56,642
He goes back to New York to go to college and drops out quickly.

632
00:51:56,822 --> 00:51:59,062
Yeah, because he's making millions of dollars in ETH.

633
00:51:59,102 --> 00:52:00,342
And he's like, why am I doing this?

634
00:52:00,382 --> 00:52:01,782
Like, this is where I need to be.

635
00:52:02,322 --> 00:52:04,902
And ends up founding his first company.

636
00:52:05,382 --> 00:52:07,662
Which is called Token Bank at the time.

637
00:52:07,662 --> 00:52:09,702
But it later becomes Token Union.

638
00:52:10,002 --> 00:52:13,562
And he bills it as Ethereum's first savings account, basically.

639
00:52:13,562 --> 00:52:18,062
So the idea of it is, you know, you hold a bunch of these tokens, right?

640
00:52:18,062 --> 00:52:22,782
So ETH is famous for being able to create, you know, it's easy to make tokens.

641
00:52:22,922 --> 00:52:26,522
There's this standard on it called ERC-20s, and you can create these tokens.

642
00:52:27,342 --> 00:52:36,222
And his model was, if you hold a bunch of these tokens, we'll give you a yield and we'll pay you, you know, a percentage to hold a bunch of these tokens.

643
00:52:36,802 --> 00:52:41,362
And in that, you know, trying to build that savings mechanism,

644
00:52:41,362 --> 00:52:48,002
he ends up partnering with this group that had kind of done a lot of the work before for creating like yield-based stuff.

645
00:52:48,062 --> 00:52:53,422
Again, this is before Ethereum is a yield-based proof-of-stake model, which is Bancor, which

646
00:52:53,422 --> 00:52:55,142
is, you already mentioned kind of this.

647
00:52:55,222 --> 00:52:55,522
Right.

648
00:52:55,702 --> 00:52:59,922
Co-founded by Netanyahu's niece and nephew.

649
00:53:00,082 --> 00:53:05,422
And interestingly, right before creating Bancor, the niece that the co-founder, Galia Benartzi,

650
00:53:05,882 --> 00:53:08,822
she worked for Peter Thiel's Founders Fund.

651
00:53:09,062 --> 00:53:09,322
Oh.

652
00:53:09,322 --> 00:53:11,822
Recurring theme Founders Fund here.

653
00:53:12,402 --> 00:53:12,722
Wow.

654
00:53:12,982 --> 00:53:13,262
Okay.

655
00:53:13,582 --> 00:53:16,202
Leading all of their Israeli-focused investments.

656
00:53:16,362 --> 00:53:16,562
Right.

657
00:53:16,562 --> 00:53:24,082
And speaking of Israeli focused investments a couple other investors and again this token union token bank token market these

658
00:53:25,442 --> 00:53:31,762
These are you know, these are hidden from the story the story is that polymarket, you know was created in his bathroom

659
00:53:31,762 --> 00:53:35,542
Well, you know all by himself and and the reality is that you know

660
00:53:35,542 --> 00:53:40,522
No, there was a predecessor company one of the actually the the guys that used to work for this company

661
00:53:40,522 --> 00:53:43,742
Who was a programmer there even says that it's the predecessor to Paul. Yeah

662
00:53:43,742 --> 00:53:47,002
He said Polymarket used to be known as Token Bank.

663
00:53:47,022 --> 00:53:47,222
Right.

664
00:53:47,302 --> 00:53:51,682
And a lot of these URLs redirect to Polymarket now, which is really interesting.

665
00:53:51,682 --> 00:53:57,142
Yeah, because it was like tokenunion.io and then it became union.market, which Copland

666
00:53:57,142 --> 00:54:02,222
says was not related at all to the previous company.

667
00:54:02,322 --> 00:54:05,382
He doesn't even ever acknowledge the company's existence, really.

668
00:54:05,802 --> 00:54:10,962
He claims it was because of some place he liked to buy like mushroom brioche buns out

669
00:54:10,962 --> 00:54:11,602
or something.

670
00:54:11,602 --> 00:54:12,602
Yeah.

671
00:54:12,602 --> 00:54:16,602
But I mean, there's a pretty clear evolution of that.

672
00:54:16,602 --> 00:54:17,602
Right.

673
00:54:17,602 --> 00:54:20,602
And then anyway, it was union.market, then poly.market, and now polymarket.com.

674
00:54:20,602 --> 00:54:21,602
Right.

675
00:54:21,602 --> 00:54:26,762
And so one of the other Israeli tide investors, Lou Kerner, founded this group called Crypto

676
00:54:26,762 --> 00:54:27,762
Oracle.

677
00:54:27,762 --> 00:54:33,642
Which is seemingly invested in token bank or token union because they had some private

678
00:54:33,642 --> 00:54:39,262
presale that where they netted, I think, a million or over a million dollars.

679
00:54:39,262 --> 00:54:40,262
Yeah.

680
00:54:40,262 --> 00:54:42,962
So obviously he had some connections to be able to do that.

681
00:54:43,042 --> 00:54:49,582
And that guy was a former Idea Labs who helped run Dot TV in the late 90s.

682
00:54:49,882 --> 00:54:52,382
And also has all these ties to Israeli tech.

683
00:54:52,382 --> 00:54:56,002
Yeah, intimately involved in the Israeli venture scene.

684
00:54:56,482 --> 00:55:00,322
Very inspired by the Startup Nation book written by Dan Sinor,

685
00:55:00,522 --> 00:55:04,342
who is a neocon formerly with Foreign Policy Initiative,

686
00:55:04,562 --> 00:55:06,722
which is what PNAC, if you're familiar with PNAC,

687
00:55:07,202 --> 00:55:10,142
morphed into was Foreign Policy Initiative.

688
00:55:10,262 --> 00:55:22,242
And basically their argument is that Israel's startup scene is so great is because basically of civil military fusion, which is, you know, de facto fascism, basically.

689
00:55:22,242 --> 00:55:30,802
And then other advisors, we had Steven Naryoff, who was considered the co-creator of the legal architect of the Ethereum ICO.

690
00:55:31,882 --> 00:55:41,082
And then we had James Haft, who was an NXTP Ventures guy, who is intimately connected with Diego Gutierrez.

691
00:55:41,162 --> 00:55:44,482
Gutierrez, who also later becomes an advisor to Token Union.

692
00:55:44,622 --> 00:55:47,802
Right, and we had written about these guys from Debt From Above.

693
00:55:47,842 --> 00:55:48,582
Two years ago.

694
00:55:48,582 --> 00:55:49,662
Sadologic play.

695
00:55:49,862 --> 00:55:51,082
So check out that stuff.

696
00:55:51,082 --> 00:55:55,722
rootstock is all is all in there so anyway he starts this there's a he raised millions of

697
00:55:55,722 --> 00:56:00,702
dollars he has all these advisors that are kind of kicking butt um but sort of white you know just

698
00:56:00,702 --> 00:56:07,462
minimizes that this ever happened um and then the the story goes that he founded polymarket in june

699
00:56:07,462 --> 00:56:14,542
2020 yeah but of course just not like there's so much missing in this story even even with us

700
00:56:14,542 --> 00:56:20,342
putting in the token the token bank stuff and the main story that's missing is our boy joey krug

701
00:56:20,342 --> 00:56:26,922
who ends up becoming, again, works at Founders Fund and joins Peter Thiel

702
00:56:26,922 --> 00:56:29,722
and works closely with Sean Parker doing all this stuff later.

703
00:56:30,062 --> 00:56:30,942
Becomes bigger on Polymarket.

704
00:56:30,942 --> 00:56:35,382
Becomes one of the main CDA investors in Polymarket with Founders Fund.

705
00:56:35,522 --> 00:56:39,282
But what he's really famous for, similar kind of story where he's this young guy.

706
00:56:39,422 --> 00:56:42,182
He's mining Bitcoin when he's 15 years old in his room.

707
00:56:42,642 --> 00:56:43,622
He loves horse gambling.

708
00:56:43,902 --> 00:56:44,882
Loves horse gambling.

709
00:56:45,622 --> 00:56:45,842
Yes.

710
00:56:46,122 --> 00:56:47,842
There's some great pictures of him with horses.

711
00:56:48,042 --> 00:56:48,622
It's very funny.

712
00:56:48,622 --> 00:56:51,922
He's also an ETH ICO guy.

713
00:56:51,922 --> 00:56:58,862
And so he founded Augur in 2014, Augur, A-U-G-U-R, which is another, it's like a Grecian seer.

714
00:56:58,862 --> 00:56:59,862
A Roman seer.

715
00:56:59,862 --> 00:57:00,862
A Roman seer.

716
00:57:00,862 --> 00:57:18,428
And it sort of based on these prediction markets cryptocurrency prediction markets based on this paper that was written by Paul Stortz in 2013 December 2013 called truth coin Yeah but also not just inspired by that but also inspired by a

717
00:57:18,808 --> 00:57:26,448
2013 Robin Hanson paper that shun that Shane Copeland also later says inspired him right for poly market and

718
00:57:27,048 --> 00:57:31,668
Just to tie all of what we've discussed together into this before you go deeper into author

719
00:57:31,668 --> 00:57:39,828
Aughar, foundational and inspirational to Aughar was DARPA's policy analysis market or PAM.

720
00:57:39,828 --> 00:57:44,428
So much so that when they created Aughar they were like, what should our logo be?

721
00:57:44,428 --> 00:57:50,548
And it's literally the same logo as the information awareness office, the one eye pyramid.

722
00:57:50,548 --> 00:57:57,668
And then was there an important guy that worked at PAM that then helped advise Aughar?

723
00:57:57,668 --> 00:57:59,668
Yes, Robin Hanson himself.

724
00:57:59,668 --> 00:58:00,668
Oh, Robin Hanson himself.

725
00:58:00,668 --> 00:58:01,668
Oh, interesting.

726
00:58:01,668 --> 00:58:05,428
And were there other interesting advisors to Augur that might be relevant to this story?

727
00:58:05,428 --> 00:58:07,228
That were also involved with Pam?

728
00:58:07,228 --> 00:58:08,228
Yes, Mark.

729
00:58:08,228 --> 00:58:09,228
Oh, wow.

730
00:58:09,228 --> 00:58:10,228
The in-trade guy.

731
00:58:10,228 --> 00:58:11,228
Oh, wow.

732
00:58:11,228 --> 00:58:12,228
That's right.

733
00:58:12,228 --> 00:58:17,768
And then also an advisor to Augur and the first investor or the first couple investors

734
00:58:17,768 --> 00:58:20,148
was Vitalik Buterin, right?

735
00:58:20,148 --> 00:58:23,268
And he was the guy that created Ethereum and-

736
00:58:23,268 --> 00:58:24,668
And had been a Teal Fellow.

737
00:58:24,668 --> 00:58:27,148
He created Ethereum as a Teal Fellow, right?

738
00:58:27,148 --> 00:58:31,048
And so then he's investing, you know, he comes to Joey Krug who's working on this stuff.

739
00:58:31,568 --> 00:58:36,208
Augur initially was going to be probably Bitcoin based and Vitalik's like, no, no, no, no, no.

740
00:58:36,248 --> 00:58:37,128
Don't do it like that.

741
00:58:37,168 --> 00:58:37,728
What do you want to do?

742
00:58:37,808 --> 00:58:39,948
You want these nice and more contracts, more expressive.

743
00:58:40,128 --> 00:58:41,268
Come over here to ETH.

744
00:58:41,308 --> 00:58:41,808
I'm building ETH.

745
00:58:41,848 --> 00:58:42,488
It's going to be great.

746
00:58:42,728 --> 00:58:45,348
So before ETH is even out, he's like, come to ETH.

747
00:58:46,068 --> 00:58:53,188
He's on a Teal Fellowship from, I think it was 2013 to build Ethereum, which launches in 2014.

748
00:58:53,188 --> 00:58:57,508
and then Krug is working on Augur in 2014.

749
00:58:58,088 --> 00:59:00,928
He switches over to ETH because this Teal fellow is like,

750
00:59:01,148 --> 00:59:01,928
come over here.

751
00:59:02,328 --> 00:59:07,248
Krug then gets a Teal Fellowship in 2016 to develop Augur,

752
00:59:07,568 --> 00:59:08,328
which is interesting.

753
00:59:08,568 --> 00:59:12,848
And at the time, he co-founded Augur with a data scientist

754
00:59:12,848 --> 00:59:17,948
from Berkeley and then with another young kid,

755
00:59:18,048 --> 00:59:20,268
Jeremy Gardner, who ends up becoming a partner

756
00:59:20,268 --> 00:59:25,608
at Blockchain Capital, which is heavily featured in the Chain series, co-founded by Tether,

757
00:59:25,608 --> 00:59:34,008
co-founder Brock Pierce. But while they're doing this, he's arguing online and he literally says,

758
00:59:34,388 --> 00:59:39,768
you know, I can publicly say that the CIA, DARPA, and the DoD are huge fans of Augur,

759
00:59:40,088 --> 00:59:47,808
which is, you know, just great cue pull quite a part out loud there. So the Teal Nexus is in there,

760
00:59:47,808 --> 00:59:50,288
The Ethereum nexus is in there.

761
00:59:50,288 --> 00:59:54,308
Augur ends up becoming the first ICO.

762
00:59:54,308 --> 00:59:56,468
ICO being initial coin offering.

763
00:59:56,468 --> 01:00:00,748
It's analogous to the IPO, initial public offering, which is sort of how a company goes

764
01:00:00,748 --> 01:00:01,748
public.

765
01:00:01,748 --> 01:00:06,828
And they recreated this model, a fundraising model, public fundraising model, but for crypto

766
01:00:06,828 --> 01:00:07,908
tokens.

767
01:00:07,908 --> 01:00:12,028
And so Augur is actually the first one on ETH, which is a huge deal.

768
01:00:12,028 --> 01:00:19,788
And so REP is their token, the R-E-P, which obviously is used in the Augur back end as

769
01:00:19,788 --> 01:00:25,148
a way, at least in the first edition of it, as a way to use these prediction based markets

770
01:00:25,148 --> 01:00:27,628
using cryptocurrency.

771
01:00:27,628 --> 01:00:29,668
And Krug speaks a lot to this.

772
01:00:29,668 --> 01:00:34,628
So the first edition, first version of Augur is super clunky, it kind of stinks, but they

773
01:00:34,628 --> 01:00:38,628
raised millions and millions and millions of dollars with this REP token.

774
01:00:38,628 --> 01:00:47,128
And first iteration, which I believe launched in 2018, was really crappy and it was hard

775
01:00:47,128 --> 01:00:48,128
to use.

776
01:00:48,128 --> 01:00:50,068
Maybe intentionally crappy.

777
01:00:50,068 --> 01:00:55,308
Maybe intentionally, but interestingly, right before it launches, but after the ICO, so they

778
01:00:55,308 --> 01:00:57,528
make tons and tons and tons of money.

779
01:00:57,528 --> 01:01:00,668
Joey Krug joins Pantera, which was founded by Dan Moorhead.

780
01:01:00,668 --> 01:01:02,928
It's one of these like Tiger Cub DC firms.

781
01:01:02,928 --> 01:01:07,028
He joins it in 2017 as co-chief investment officer.

782
01:01:07,028 --> 01:01:10,308
He writes this big blog post about why he's joining and how he's like, this isn't going

783
01:01:10,308 --> 01:01:10,868
to hurt Augur.

784
01:01:10,968 --> 01:01:11,708
It's good for Augur.

785
01:01:11,988 --> 01:01:13,528
In fact, we're going to be trading on it.

786
01:01:13,668 --> 01:01:14,888
And we're not doing it as charity.

787
01:01:14,948 --> 01:01:16,148
We're doing it to make a lot of money.

788
01:01:16,308 --> 01:01:18,228
And actually, we're on there to make a lot of money.

789
01:01:18,228 --> 01:01:19,008
It's not charity.

790
01:01:19,288 --> 01:01:22,568
And we have an edge in this market, much like we have an edge in the Bitcoin market.

791
01:01:22,888 --> 01:01:23,928
And that's why we're doing this.

792
01:01:24,068 --> 01:01:30,328
So already from the get-go, huge VC firms, some of the most important ones are involved.

793
01:01:30,668 --> 01:01:35,048
They're trading on these platforms before they're even really viable products that people

794
01:01:35,048 --> 01:01:35,528
can use.

795
01:01:35,528 --> 01:01:39,208
And they're admitting they have an edge and they're making a bunch of money on it and

796
01:01:39,208 --> 01:01:41,128
they're doing it to make money on it.

797
01:01:41,128 --> 01:01:48,348
So this is all happening before version two even launches, which if I recall, version two

798
01:01:48,348 --> 01:01:53,268
was 2020 and version two launches with now it has stable coin access.

799
01:01:53,268 --> 01:01:58,408
So one of the issues with the first version of Augur is it uses Ethereum and this REP

800
01:01:58,408 --> 01:02:03,328
token, which have really crazy volatile price swings because it's just the price of these

801
01:02:03,328 --> 01:02:04,328
tokens.

802
01:02:04,328 --> 01:02:10,708
a bet, you're actually unfortunately exposed not only to the bet outcome, but to the volatility

803
01:02:10,708 --> 01:02:12,268
of the underlying token.

804
01:02:12,268 --> 01:02:18,488
So by switching it to DAI, which is the stable coin from MakerDAO heavily worked on by Nikolai

805
01:02:18,488 --> 01:02:21,768
Michelin, who we've written about in the chain series.

806
01:02:21,768 --> 01:02:23,488
I wrote about it in my book, The Bitcoin Dollar.

807
01:02:23,488 --> 01:02:24,488
Probably murdered by the CIA.

808
01:02:24,488 --> 01:02:27,848
Very likely murdered by the CIA.

809
01:02:27,848 --> 01:02:34,288
But regardless, 2020, they launched with DAI and the stablecoins sort of eliminate a lot

810
01:02:34,288 --> 01:02:35,428
of these issues.

811
01:02:35,428 --> 01:02:39,368
Prediction markets could not exist without cryptocurrency for many reasons, but one of

812
01:02:39,368 --> 01:02:44,928
them being that there's a legislative issue and a fraud issue.

813
01:02:44,928 --> 01:02:46,908
Legislation being, you know, it's illegal.

814
01:02:46,908 --> 01:02:52,388
There was the Internet Act, the Internet Protection Gambling, Internet Protection Act or something

815
01:02:52,388 --> 01:02:57,608
like that, where they basically made it illegal for people to process money for offshore gambling.

816
01:02:57,608 --> 01:03:00,208
And so they had to figure out a way to get around this.

817
01:03:00,208 --> 01:03:03,668
And this was a big issue that a lot of these early ones like in trade dealt with.

818
01:03:03,668 --> 01:03:06,888
And so one of the ways they get around it is you use cryptocurrency.

819
01:03:06,888 --> 01:03:07,888
It's a great workaround.

820
01:03:07,888 --> 01:03:09,388
You don't have to use credit cards.

821
01:03:09,388 --> 01:03:10,668
You don't have to do these things.

822
01:03:10,668 --> 01:03:15,328
And then also because you're not using credit cards and because cryptocurrency transactions

823
01:03:15,328 --> 01:03:19,488
are functionally almost definitely irreversible.

824
01:03:19,488 --> 01:03:24,588
Obviously, you know, there's the infamous call Joe Lubin line from Howard Lutnick saying

825
01:03:24,588 --> 01:03:28,068
if you want something frozen on Ethereum, call Joe Lubin.

826
01:03:28,068 --> 01:03:31,128
But it's a lot harder to reverse the transaction.

827
01:03:31,128 --> 01:03:35,908
So if these guys are making bets on Polymarket or on Augur in this case using DAI, it's really

828
01:03:35,908 --> 01:03:40,788
hard to reverse the transactions if a bet maker tries to do some fraud.

829
01:03:40,788 --> 01:03:44,108
Whereas if it was a credit card, they could call and say, I didn't place this bet and

830
01:03:44,108 --> 01:03:46,088
the credit card company will take the money back.

831
01:03:46,088 --> 01:03:47,708
You can't really do that with Augur.

832
01:03:47,708 --> 01:03:53,968
So Augur does DAI in 2020 and then Augur Turbo comes out in 2021, notably after Polymarket's

833
01:03:53,968 --> 01:03:59,788
founded in 2020 and as a way to solve a lot of these clunky issues of how slow

834
01:03:59,788 --> 01:04:03,808
the platform is and all that they integrate Chainlink as the Oracle

835
01:04:03,808 --> 01:04:08,248
provider who actually determines the outcome and then they use an Ethereum

836
01:04:08,248 --> 01:04:13,728
layer to Polygon interestingly both of those are what Polymarket uses yeah

837
01:04:13,728 --> 01:04:19,288
which is kind of interesting so at this time he's at Pantera there there he's

838
01:04:19,288 --> 01:04:23,148
trading on auger then they upgrade it then they upgrade it again now it's

839
01:04:23,148 --> 01:04:25,188
basically what Polymarket is today.

840
01:04:25,188 --> 01:04:30,448
Yeah, but like who, why did this new version of Augur, even though it was so much better

841
01:04:30,448 --> 01:04:33,468
and they like fixed their previous problems, why did it fail?

842
01:04:33,468 --> 01:04:39,388
Well, they sort of broke it all down and they pieced it, you know, broke down the assets

843
01:04:39,388 --> 01:04:46,808
and they sold it off actually to Coinbase who then admittedly didn't have a, you know,

844
01:04:46,808 --> 01:04:51,208
because they had created the Forecast Foundation, which was the nonprofit behind Augur.

845
01:04:51,208 --> 01:04:55,528
And then they created like a VC firm on it and augmented partners, I believe is what it

846
01:04:55,528 --> 01:04:56,528
was called.

847
01:04:56,528 --> 01:05:01,708
And then they created a DEX using the OX model, which had all these investors, you know, all

848
01:05:01,708 --> 01:05:07,008
these similar, Reid Hoffman and Andreessen and all these guys were involved in this.

849
01:05:07,008 --> 01:05:10,148
And then they sold it off to Coinbase.

850
01:05:10,148 --> 01:05:13,768
And admittedly in this interview that we link in the article, they say that Coinbase didn't

851
01:05:13,768 --> 01:05:16,188
have a plan for it beyond two months.

852
01:05:16,188 --> 01:05:20,868
And they just brought it there to take all the patents and the technology, which was licensed

853
01:05:20,868 --> 01:05:28,708
from Intrade. Augur got a bunch of, they gave a bunch of rep tokens to Intrade, which then

854
01:05:28,708 --> 01:05:34,028
traded all those for ETH. And now Intrade has this huge, huge, huge, huge ETH stash,

855
01:05:34,028 --> 01:05:38,388
very interestingly from the ICO. But anyways, and now the guys just like retired, soft retired

856
01:05:38,388 --> 01:05:42,928
because they made millions of dollars, but they purposely shipped it off and sunset it,

857
01:05:42,928 --> 01:05:48,428
sold the assets off to Coinbase, and then basically relaunched this all with Polymarket

858
01:05:48,428 --> 01:05:52,848
using USDC and Chainlink and Polygon.

859
01:05:52,848 --> 01:05:53,848
All right.

860
01:05:53,848 --> 01:05:56,028
So let's go back to the founding of Polymarket, right?

861
01:05:56,028 --> 01:06:02,188
So the official narrative that we've already discussed as being bunk is that Mr. Shane

862
01:06:02,188 --> 01:06:04,468
is, you know, oh, COVID's happening.

863
01:06:04,468 --> 01:06:05,468
It's lockdowns.

864
01:06:05,468 --> 01:06:06,588
There's so much uncertainty.

865
01:06:06,588 --> 01:06:17,554
It the best time for prediction markets And I just so passionate about prediction markets I going to it into existence by by being in my bathroom all alone in my bathroom

866
01:06:17,554 --> 01:06:26,234
and just coating oh I mean my bathroom I don't know why he said that's the

867
01:06:26,234 --> 01:06:29,534
narrative they like yeah I sell so bad because it's like the bathroom because

868
01:06:29,534 --> 01:06:31,534
It literally stinks.

869
01:06:31,534 --> 01:06:34,534
Well, it used to be like the garage, right?

870
01:06:34,534 --> 01:06:39,534
We built this company in our garage and now they've gone to like, well, we can't do the garage anymore.

871
01:06:39,534 --> 01:06:42,534
Now it's the bathroom.

872
01:06:42,534 --> 01:06:43,534
Yeah.

873
01:06:43,534 --> 01:06:45,534
I don't know. It's just so weird.

874
01:06:45,534 --> 01:06:52,534
Anyway, so obviously we know that he had all these connections, particularly the people that sort of bridge the U.S. Israeli crypto tech scene.

875
01:06:52,534 --> 01:07:00,454
scene and basically had remolded or was working in the process of going from

876
01:07:00,454 --> 01:07:05,014
token union which kind of became irrelevant when Ethereum was moving to

877
01:07:05,014 --> 01:07:07,594
proof of stake they didn't really need what the service...

878
01:07:07,594 --> 01:07:11,854
The Ethereum proof of stake like debugging in the code was done with

879
01:07:11,854 --> 01:07:16,714
Antithesis which is a DC based Palantir subcontractor that was in stealth the whole time.

880
01:07:16,714 --> 01:07:18,714
some more teal connections there.

881
01:07:18,714 --> 01:07:20,714
The chain. The chain. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

882
01:07:20,714 --> 01:07:27,714
And so basically he has all these connections anyway when he is creating it.

883
01:07:27,714 --> 01:07:35,714
And we didn't put this in part one, it'll be in part two, but there's an interview that he gave in 2020

884
01:07:35,714 --> 01:07:45,714
where he said a lot of the passion for the creation of Polymarket from him and his team was DARPA's policy analysis market.

885
01:07:45,714 --> 01:07:53,794
market. And even though he's alone in his bathroom building this company ostensibly with no connections,

886
01:07:53,794 --> 01:07:59,954
as he says, he somehow raises four million dollars just three months after the company launches.

887
01:07:59,954 --> 01:08:05,474
And the main people backing him are Coinbase's earliest employees. So remember, Coinbase takes

888
01:08:05,474 --> 01:08:11,314
Ogre and sunsets it. So these people that, you know, they left Coinbase, but they were still

889
01:08:11,314 --> 01:08:12,314
connected to it.

890
01:08:12,314 --> 01:08:18,814
So one example is one confirmation which is created by one of Coinbase's earliest employees,

891
01:08:18,814 --> 01:08:19,814
Nick Tomano.

892
01:08:19,814 --> 01:08:25,734
And he right away invests in ETH and also invests in Coinbase right back in the company

893
01:08:25,734 --> 01:08:33,134
he left and then dumps money into Polymarket.

894
01:08:33,134 --> 01:08:36,114
And interestingly, Polymarket uses USDC.

895
01:08:36,114 --> 01:08:42,454
50% of all profits from USDC's issuer circle goes to Coinbase because they're like the main investor.

896
01:08:42,454 --> 01:08:44,454
Yeah, so it's like another...

897
01:08:44,454 --> 01:08:50,174
And then another like Coinbase's literal earliest employee like Olaf Carlson,

898
01:08:50,174 --> 01:08:55,074
he also is like the main other main investor in there. So like the Coinbase bros.

899
01:08:55,074 --> 01:08:59,314
Yeah, and there's another Coinbase guy that's there also in 2020 in the seed round.

900
01:08:59,314 --> 01:09:03,814
So like all these Coinbase guys got in really early with Shane and Polymarket.

901
01:09:03,814 --> 01:09:09,754
yeah and four million dollars and then you know Coinbase on the other side sort

902
01:09:09,754 --> 01:09:14,194
of sunsets their competitor for them and by that time Joey Krug had left right

903
01:09:14,194 --> 01:09:30,214
and where did he go in founders fund founders fund and then they end up leading one of the series rounds for Polymarket pretty early on wow yeah so yeah there was that whole thing where he was like you know they were messaging each other because

904
01:09:30,214 --> 01:09:36,514
Copeland was like, I don't like Augur and there's a lot of issues with it, but I have

905
01:09:36,514 --> 01:09:37,514
all these other ideas.

906
01:09:37,514 --> 01:09:38,514
Polymer's going to be better.

907
01:09:38,514 --> 01:09:40,834
And Krug's like, listen, I'm a big investor guy now.

908
01:09:40,834 --> 01:09:42,334
I don't really do Augur anymore.

909
01:09:42,334 --> 01:09:46,194
I'm like an advisor for things like Ampleforth and whatever.

910
01:09:46,194 --> 01:09:51,174
If you make $5 million a month in volume, hit me up and then I'll invest.

911
01:09:51,174 --> 01:09:53,734
Sure as shit, they hit the $5 million a month.

912
01:09:53,734 --> 01:09:56,414
Krug joined Founders Fund in 2023.

913
01:09:56,414 --> 01:09:58,214
He leads the Series A.

914
01:09:58,214 --> 01:10:03,974
yeah so basically since we're kind of running out of time here it's

915
01:10:03,974 --> 01:10:09,914
Augur was an attempt to resurrect Pam it failed but true to the Napsterization

916
01:10:09,914 --> 01:10:15,614
model right we have Augur being the predecessor the poly market just like

917
01:10:15,614 --> 01:10:21,834
Napster was to Spotify and literally they have said this yeah Krug has said this

918
01:10:21,834 --> 01:10:23,834
Yes, Colbyn has said this.

919
01:10:23,834 --> 01:10:25,834
Yes, they have said this.

920
01:10:25,834 --> 01:10:33,294
I mean, it's important to note here, and I think the last point I want to end with here

921
01:10:33,294 --> 01:10:35,594
is about what the significance of this is.

922
01:10:35,594 --> 01:10:41,374
And a lot of that, Part 2 is going to be sort of necessary to unpack in its entirety, this

923
01:10:41,374 --> 01:10:42,494
idea.

924
01:10:42,494 --> 01:10:44,214
But what was PAM?

925
01:10:44,214 --> 01:10:48,894
PAM was part, or the policy analysis market, but these guys have been trying to resurrect.

926
01:10:48,894 --> 01:10:50,594
It was part of TIA.

927
01:10:50,594 --> 01:10:56,114
And TIA, Total Information Awareness, the goal was not just to see everything going on

928
01:10:56,114 --> 01:11:03,554
in the present and find anomalies, find the bad guys in a sea of data, of everyone's data

929
01:11:03,554 --> 01:11:04,794
in mass surveillance.

930
01:11:04,794 --> 01:11:06,354
It was to predict.

931
01:11:06,354 --> 01:11:07,434
It was pre-crime.

932
01:11:07,434 --> 01:11:14,534
It was predictive policing on a massive scale and in pretty much every ambit of human life

933
01:11:14,534 --> 01:11:16,694
you can think of.

934
01:11:16,694 --> 01:11:25,254
And so polymarket, because the market knows all of these polymarket odds, just like with

935
01:11:25,254 --> 01:11:29,594
Pam, the odds are there to help feed the pre-crime engine.

936
01:11:29,594 --> 01:11:30,694
This is what will happen.

937
01:11:30,694 --> 01:11:31,694
Right.

938
01:11:31,694 --> 01:11:32,694
Or this will not.

939
01:11:32,694 --> 01:11:38,234
And we know that polymarket bets can be rigged and that polymarket itself puts out misinformation

940
01:11:38,234 --> 01:11:43,574
sometimes to make trades swing one way or the other and that insider trading is a huge

941
01:11:43,574 --> 01:11:44,814
problem.

942
01:11:44,814 --> 01:11:52,174
And the context of that, as it's meant to interface with what is now Palantir, is really

943
01:11:52,174 --> 01:11:53,294
unsettling.

944
01:11:53,294 --> 01:11:56,414
And lo and behold, if you look it up, dude, it's there.

945
01:11:56,414 --> 01:11:59,294
Polymarket and Palantir are partners.

946
01:11:59,294 --> 01:12:03,254
They are partnered and they work together for the market integrity.

947
01:12:03,254 --> 01:12:05,134
So this has already happened.

948
01:12:05,134 --> 01:12:07,234
And this is the privatized Panopticon.

949
01:12:07,234 --> 01:12:08,434
Yes.

950
01:12:08,434 --> 01:12:10,814
And not only privatized, they're going to commercialize it.

951
01:12:10,814 --> 01:12:12,654
They're making money on it.

952
01:12:12,654 --> 01:12:13,974
Insider trading is not a problem.

953
01:12:13,974 --> 01:12:14,814
It's a feature.

954
01:12:14,814 --> 01:12:15,954
It's a feature, not a bug.

955
01:12:16,134 --> 01:12:18,474
Hanson says that, but these guys also say it too.

956
01:12:18,694 --> 01:12:19,594
And we'll explore more.

957
01:12:19,594 --> 01:12:27,654
So part two, of course, we will discuss a lot of these initial founding principles and philosophies that led to let's build out all this tech.

958
01:12:27,834 --> 01:12:31,374
Let's build out cryptocurrency, which probably came from the Tealverse anyway.

959
01:12:31,754 --> 01:12:33,214
Then let's get ETH so we can make tokens.

960
01:12:33,374 --> 01:12:34,534
Then we can create smart contracts.

961
01:12:34,734 --> 01:12:37,154
Then we can create prediction markets with irreversible transactions.

962
01:12:37,154 --> 01:12:39,894
And then we'll make stable coins, which is the same nexus.

963
01:12:40,074 --> 01:12:44,094
Bill Gross and Epstein were talking about having Tether being founded.

964
01:12:44,094 --> 01:12:48,054
and you know all of these mechanisms that were necessary to create today's

965
01:12:48,054 --> 01:12:52,734
Pauline market came out of this nexus of we're going to create a new form of

966
01:12:52,734 --> 01:12:57,534
governance based on prediction market yeah which is future arcy the idea of a

967
01:12:57,534 --> 01:13:01,474
new governance form exactly and the applications of that and its

968
01:13:01,474 --> 01:13:05,094
interactions with neo reactionary thought and that influence in the current

969
01:13:05,094 --> 01:13:09,174
Trump administration yes this is very important stuff and there's actually been

970
01:13:09,174 --> 01:13:12,834
efforts by the current Trump administration where they've already

971
01:13:12,834 --> 01:13:17,154
been implementing these ideas and it's probably only going to get crazier from

972
01:13:17,154 --> 01:13:20,274
here on out because of course the Trump family personally involved,

973
01:13:20,274 --> 01:13:27,954
Polymarket and Calci its main competitor. All of this and more coming to you in

974
01:13:27,954 --> 01:13:31,734
both a part two article and I'm sure we'll have to do another rip on this.

975
01:13:31,734 --> 01:13:36,954
Oh totally. There's a lot of detail and we just tried to give an overview but

976
01:13:36,954 --> 01:13:42,714
basically it's taken them 25 years to get to this point. They're not giving up now.

977
01:13:42,714 --> 01:13:49,354
No, they're not giving up now, but a lot of their success of what is a very dystopian plan for governance and mass surveillance

978
01:13:50,014 --> 01:13:54,394
hinges on people buying the official narratives of what these companies are.

979
01:13:54,394 --> 01:13:55,394
100%

980
01:13:55,394 --> 01:13:58,234
So it's more important than ever to

981
01:13:59,134 --> 01:14:06,414
Scrutinize and break apart those narratives when they are not true. Yes case in point. So that's what we're doing at 11 Unlimited Hangout. Yeah

982
01:14:06,894 --> 01:14:10,174
And so yeah, this is our first episode. Yeah

983
01:14:10,174 --> 01:14:16,414
we would like to hear what you thought about it yeah we can you know improve

984
01:14:16,414 --> 01:14:21,034
get you to subscribe hopefully the best website in the world unlimited hangout

985
01:14:21,034 --> 01:14:25,554
yeah join join us there become a member you'll get early access to all this

986
01:14:25,554 --> 01:14:31,874
stuff early access to articles to pods come chat with us ask us questions but

987
01:14:31,874 --> 01:14:34,534
yeah thanks for hanging out on our first episode thanks for having me with me

988
01:14:34,534 --> 01:14:38,854
yeah of course I have a feeling I'll see you again on our next episode and

989
01:14:38,854 --> 01:14:46,674
thanks to everyone for watching. We really appreciate you stopping by and yeah.

990
01:14:46,674 --> 01:14:47,674
See you then.

991
01:14:47,674 --> 01:14:49,034
I'm going to pay you out on video. Yay!

992
01:15:08,854 --> 01:15:10,914
you