Welcome back to Over the Horizon, a Bitcoin podcast.
Today we're talking to one of the most straightforward voices in Bitcoin,
a former TradFi investor who's all in on Bitcoin
and is calling for $340,000 Bitcoin before the next having.
British HODL. British, thank you so much for joining us.
My pleasure. Thanks for having me.
Absolutely. So let's just dive straight into it.
If you want to give like a quick 30-second intro about your background
in finance, real estate, and gold and what made you shift into Bitcoin.
Yeah, so I started working.
My dad was always in real estate. That's his background. And I started working when I was about 15 years old, 16 years old. First foray was in real estate. And my first recession was 2008. It was a pretty, pretty gnarly one, right? So everything since then doesn't feel like a recession to me. And it's kind of like a walk in the park.
So that was my first foray and then transition into, you know, equities, gold, silver, and then finally into Bitcoin in 2020 after reading the Bitcoin standard.
Excellent. And so I suppose the next logical question would be what convinced you to move out of gold and real estate and into Bitcoin specifically?
There are numerous reasons why Bitcoin is a superior store of value to real estate.
One of the themes of the show, obviously, Horizon as a company helps people convert their home equity into Bitcoin.
So we take the position that Bitcoin is superior to real estate.
But from your perspective, what are the big factors that make Bitcoin a superior store of value, superior asset to own?
And how should real estate investors and homeowners be thinking about it when they're thinking about their portfolio construction?
Yeah, look, you know, I think real estate was the game.
It clearly is. It's a 360 or 70 trillion dollar asset worldwide.
It clearly was the game for liquidity.
Unfortunately, you can't just keep compounding real estate at the rate it's been going.
So every few years, every few generations, there's a new asset that comes around.
And that's now the asset of choice for all this printed liquidity to go into.
And I just have complete confidence that that asset is now going to be Bitcoin.
The advantage of Bitcoin is that you don't have any social consequences, right?
You can get into, you can print as much money as you want and shove it into Bitcoin.
Unlike real estate, you're not going to get anyone on the street.
You're not going to get anyone homeless.
You're not going to get anyone complaining.
You can just print as much money as you want and you never have to take your foot off the gas pedal.
And so that's what I think Bitcoin is going to turn into.
Of course, this is a long-term horizon, no pun intended, you know, perspective on Bitcoin.
But that's what I really think is going on here.
And as far as precious metals go, it was just one idea.
So, you know, I always thought Bitcoin was a complete scam, like most TradFi investors.
And a friend of mine, we have a little investment group, and he called me, someone I very much respect.
And he said, look, I'm pivoting 20% of my portfolio into Bitcoin.
And as I'm on the verge, us Brits sort of cuss each other out as a way of talking nicely to each other.
And as I'm on the verge of cussing him out, he says, we're not going to even speak about this until you read the Bitcoin standard.
and he hung up on me.
And as I was listening to the Bitcoin standard,
Saif Fedeen says the idea of stock to flow for Bitcoin,
not the price model or anything like that,
just the idea of stock to flow.
And I realized instantly that I was looking at Bitcoin
like an equity when I should have been looking at it
like a commodity.
And the second that happened,
I realized it was like the matrix
just sort of came out in front of me.
I was like, oh, I know exactly where I've screwed up on this
and had to readjust my worldview very quickly.
Good thinking.
Very good thing.
I think, you know, that's ultimately something that I've heard from a lot of folks.
I have sort of a blessing of having gone to college with people who were already in Bitcoin
and Bitcoin at the point that I was in college was already a relatively mainstream asset.
And so I come from sort of a unique world where Bitcoin is already integrated into the
way that I view the market writ large, whereas for most people, they have to kind of overcome
these informational hurdles. So speaking of precious metals as it pertains to Bitcoin,
one of the things that you said that really caught my ear, which is that you thought of it
as an equity. Discussing stock to flow, obviously, that's something that is a model in the commodities
world. And so speaking of Bitcoin from a stock to flow perspective, it has the most superior
stock to flow ratio, if you will, when it comes to a store of value. Yesterday, and I'll share this
up on the screen as I'm talking, Bitcoin and gold diverge pretty heavily. The Japanese government
bond yields are exploding. And as a result, there seems to be a lot of capital flight coming out of
U.S. assets. You pair that with the Greenland remarks and it didn't help much at all. But I
put this tweet out yesterday and it sent the gold bugs into a frenzy. This is the chart that went
along with it. I said Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation rather than ripping
with gold and silver tells you how early we are. So in my view, this is the largest informational
asymmetry in markets. What's your take on the fact that Bitcoin and gold are still divergent
assets and Bitcoin still isn't correlated to gold during moves like this. Yeah, I've been saying this
for the last three years. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and it is the furthest on the risk curve.
And of course, as a Bitcoiner, I understand that it is actually the ultimate risk-off asset,
but the market doesn't understand that yet because it's not a mature enough asset. So
at some point, it will become a risk-off asset to the market, but right now it is perceived as a
risk-on asset. So we need to wait until the capital starts flooding down the risk curve
and then you're going to see Bitcoin perform. Gold is a really good indicator of potential
incoming liquidity into a system. Bitcoin being a risk asset is reacting when the delta on the
liquidity starts to accelerate. And so the velocity of the liquidity hasn't even started yet.
So therefore, Bitcoin is underperforming. What we can see is that the equities markets seem to be
doing quite well. So it is starting. The plumbing is there, but the liquidity hasn't started flowing
and accelerating yet. And so for my thinking, it's very simple. Gold and silver are currently
projecting that liquidity is going to come and it's making the move. And very soon we are going
to see that liquidity come in. Now, I don't think that liquidity is going to rush in. I think we have
got liquidity coming. I don't think it's going to rush in because I don't see anything in the system
really broken yet as far as the US goes. I know the Japanese bond yields are going through the
roof, but based on what I can see, there's not much bond volatility going on in the US.
And when that happens, that's when the liquidity will start coming in and it won't come in until
then. That could be two weeks, it could be six months. I don't know when that's going to happen.
But what I'm looking at is when does the Japanese bond rates become attractive enough for people to
start selling U.S. bonds to pivot into Japanese bonds. And then you're going to see some dislocation
in U.S. markets, which is when the liquidity will start. Because we've seen time and again that
whenever there's a crisis, the Fed's immediate response function is to inject as much liquidity
as they can. And if we look back... But there has to be a crisis first, right? And as of this moment,
the market is perceiving that the Japanese bond market is an isolated incident right now.
Very well said.
When in reality, the carry trade sort of underpins this concept of free money worldwide, right?
And it's extremely important to asset markets.
And the fact that Japanese government bond yields are rising right now is a huge signal that money is no longer free.
And if we know one thing heading into the U.S. midterms, basically all that one of the major things that President Trump has on his side right now is making sure that asset prices rise.
And so in my view, and I'm sure you agree with this, he's going to do everything in his power to make sure that asset prices rise.
Trade seemingly unwinding here is not something he wants to see because it's going to have a negative impact on prices, asset prices, people's 401ks.
That's going to lead them to not vote for the incumbent, to vote for the other party.
And so it seems to me that he's going to do everything in his power to inject liquidity into markets here.
Yeah, and he's got the best person at the helm of the Treasury to actually get this done.
You know, Scott Bessent is an animal when it comes to financial markets.
He understands exactly how these things work, and he's going to do what it takes to get it to happen.
He's already started talking about the fact that you've got tax credits coming in.
You know, what they want, and he's been very clear about it, is we want Wall Street to win.
We want Main Street to win.
We want everybody to win.
So, you know, as that happens, I'm sure you've spoken about the fact that the leverage ratios have been changed.
That was optional from Jan 1st.
It's mandatory by April 1st.
They've got $8 to $10 trillion of debt to refry.
You've got all that coming in.
You've got fiscal stimulus coming in from the tax rebates, everything else.
So there is a lot of liquidity coming.
And that's what I believe gold and silver are sniffing out.
But it's not started flowing yet.
When it does, that's when you're going to see Bitcoin start to react.
Very well said.
Lawrence Lepard, he made a great chart.
It was Bitcoin overlaid with gold.
And he has said that gold moves first and Bitcoin follows harder.
That's the statement that he's used.
We've seen time and again, whether it's a 100-day lag, whether it's a full-year lag,
that liquidity eventually moves up the risk curve.
You see it first in commodities, gold and silver.
Next, you see it in equities, which are sort of these lower beta risk assets,
or obviously they are the market.
The S&P 500 is the benchmark rate.
And then it moves out into those really, really high beta risk assets like Bitcoin.
And so ostensibly over the course of this year, as this crisis continues to materialize,
you're going to see that liquidity pivoted to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, single stock names,
and then eventually out into Bitcoin and other high beta risk assets.
Yeah, completely agreed. It's got to flow down the risk curve and it hasn't started yet.
Very well said. So I want to ask about, you know, this idea of diminishing marginal returns. I'm
curious your take on it. For a very long time, people ascribed to this notion, myself included,
that as Bitcoin grew in size,
it would have these diminishing marginal returns.
We've had blow-off tops in every prior cycle.
This cycle, we did not see a blow-off top.
We saw Bitcoin make a new all-time high last year,
but it did so very quietly.
It did so without a lot of mania,
and it did so in such a way that left investors
really waiting for more and wanting more
and saying that this was a bear market,
a bunch of different things.
The one thing that throws a wrench into the idea
of diminishing marginal returns for me
is what we saw gold do over the last 18 and 24 months, right?
gold has more than doubled its market cap over the last 18 to 24 months being a much larger asset
and so to me that kind of signals that this notion of bitcoin kind of decelerating in its growth
as it grows isn't necessarily true isn't necessarily always going to hold you put out a tweet that said
bitcoin is boring now that's a good thing for a store of value when you say bitcoin is boring what
do you mean by that and do you think that diminishing marginal returns are a certainty in
Bitcoin's future or because of the move that we saw in gold and silver, that opens up the floodgates
for Bitcoin to potentially go parabolic, despite now being a much larger asset. Yeah, I think you
mentioned it right there in the end. Forget gold. Look at silver, right? The fact that silver has
done what it's done is, you know, anyone should be going, yeah, I mean, for Bitcoin to triple is
not that far-fetched if silver can do it, right? So yeah, I think Bitcoin's getting boring from the
sense that it's no longer exciting to retail, but it's getting more and more of an incumbent
asset for institutional capital.
It's becoming a must own asset.
This is the difference that we had last year.
What we pivoted for Bitcoin was the question of, do I need to own Bitcoin?
Change to how much Bitcoin do I need to own?
That's a monumental shift in the psychology of a portfolio of a portfolio manager.
So now everybody understands that they need to own some Bitcoin.
And the question is, is what?
is your allocation. And of course, Bank of America and everybody else is saying 4%. That will
accelerate as soon as their fees start coming in. Once the advisors start realizing that their
commissions are very much linked to Bitcoin's price action, I'm sure that 4% will grow to 8%
very quickly. And this is the start of this allocation cycle. So, you know, do I believe
in diminishing returns? Technically, you should have diminishing returns as an asset matures.
but what happens when an asset is going through its capital saturation moment we haven't bitcoin
hasn't gone through a capital saturation moment there's 900 trillion dollars worth of worth of
liquidity out there it's got to grab some of that how fast that comes is not up to any chart any
person any any anything right that is just dependent on human psyche and the moment that
everybody decides that they need to own a piece just like what happened with tesla in 2019 and
2020. It's going to happen with Bitcoin at some point. And then we'll see what happens. I do not
think that diminishing returns are guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination. Absolutely. And
speaking to gold and silver, silver specifically, I ran the calculation, silver's market cap is like
$5.2 trillion now. Bitcoin's is $1.7 trillion. All the viewers of this show will recall that
at one point, Bitcoin did have a higher market cap than silver. Silver made this move. And so if
you were to overlay silver's current market cap with Bitcoin's price, that implies the Bitcoin
price of $265,000. We'll talk about institutions in a moment because I want to get your take on
Larry Fink and the fact that iBit was so successful for them and what that means for institutions
and capital allocators more broadly But you called for Bitcoin before the next halving Obviously the halving is approaching right We a ways away from it still but it coming soon So the price target that you put on Bitcoin is actually higher
than the implied price target for Bitcoin if we just use silver's market cap. What leads you to
make that prediction? So my price target, just to correct you slightly, is $340,000 plus or minus
15% before the next halving. I think that will be the quote unquote blow off top and then we'll
go through some kind of distribution phase. There's a couple of different things that kind
of got me there, which I've never spoken about, and I'm probably not going to start now. So the
way I look at it, there's three particular indicators and three particular things that I
observed that make me go, I think this is the price target. We'll see if we hit it.
I'm not a chartist. I'm not someone who sits here and looks at technicals.
so I don't even want to have that debate with anybody,
which is why I haven't even gone into explaining
why I think that's going to happen.
But it seems to fit in some kind of range for a lot of people,
and so we'll see what happens.
But based on what I can see, that's my price target,
340 plus or minus 15% before the next halving.
Excellent.
So I want to pivot and ask you about institutions.
Obviously, you said one of the major things going in Bitcoin's corner last year and even the year before were the institutions coming in.
BlackRock, Larry Fink has come out and said that the Ibet ETF was their most successful ETF launch of all time in terms of revenue.
If you look at the pacing of it relative to other ETF launches in history, it is the most successful ETF launch in history by numerous metrics.
So what's your take on BlackRock and, you know, these multi-trillion dollar pools of capital that are sitting on the sidelines?
What sort of precedent does it set that now you have institutions like Harvard coming out and it's the largest single asset in their endowment?
What does that do for the perception of Bitcoin and what kind of precedent does it set?
You know, two years ago, I said that the single most important event for Bitcoin since inception was the BlackRock ETF.
And it is the most important thing for the next 10 years.
Because everyone looks at it and goes, oh, no, but a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US is certainly more important, more significant of an event than the Ibit ETF.
And that's someone that does not understand how financial markets work.
Because it's because you have the Ibit ETF that you're getting a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
That's how this works.
If you think that your politicians sat around one day and thought, you know what, we should all do over one summer is everyone read the Bitcoin standard and suddenly get on board with this thing.
Then you are delusional.
That's not how this works.
Larry Fink, Robert Michnick, who, by the way, is the architect of the IBIT ETF, is the person who actually drove this through.
And then Larry Fink, to his credit, someone who sits there, someone who does not need to change his mind about anything. He's got the most impact in the financial markets, sat there and said, you know what, I've probably been thinking about this wrong. Let me understand what's going on here. He understood what's going on. He changed his mind. He came into the space and they have the number one ETF, not only in Bitcoin, but ever. Right.
And so that's how monumental that shift was.
Everything else that comes after it is no longer interesting.
It is a downstream effect.
The moment they filed for the ETF, I said, you're going to see that everyone who was
negative on Bitcoin is suddenly going to be positive.
It took, I thought it would take a few months.
It took three weeks for KPMG to release a report saying Bitcoin is now good for the environment
because that's how everything works.
It works after capital starts moving.
with BlackRock behind Bitcoin, Bitcoin's a dumb deal at this point. That's why I said it's getting
boring now because it is an absolute dumb deal. If you're sitting there looking at daily price
action and daily price movements, and this is going on and that's going on, you're missing the
picture of what's going on here. They're building an entire securitized economy around Bitcoin,
just like they did real estate. And if you want to, you know, the real estate market that we know
today as an asset is really since like the 50s, the 60s, because that's when mortgages became
securitized. And so there was a whole process of that going on. Before that, it was just a property,
right? It wasn't this $370 trillion asset. And how do you know that that's exactly what's going
to happen with Bitcoin? Because the person who was behind mortgage-backed securities was Larry
Fink. This is his second go around. This is not his first rodeo when it comes to taking an asset
that has got some kind of scarcity to it,
turning it into a securitized economy,
and then figuring out how to generate
unlimited amounts of printed liquidity
and shove it into that asset as fast as possible.
And with Bitcoin, he's actually got
absolute finality of scarcity, unlike real estate.
And you don't need to convince anyone to borrow any money
because I can just funnel it straight through the institutions.
I don't need to get individual morons involved
and then worry about whether they're going to be able
to make their payments or not.
That's the beautiful thing about this.
So, yeah, this is what's going on here.
Ibit is the single, BlackRock is the single most important contributor to Bitcoin since the inception of Bitcoin.
So it's number two.
First thing was actually Bitcoin coming out, and now it's BlackRock.
And now you're just going to see all the dominoes one after the other fall.
It's going to be every institution.
It's going to be every country.
It's going to be every central bank.
It's going to be everyone.
Because at the end of the day, when Larry calls, you say yes.
Very well said.
So speaking of the securitization of Bitcoin, I want to talk about MSTR.
Strategy has been on a tear.
Last year, they released four different preferred stock variations.
Stretch, chief among them that has proven to be the most successful, their iPhone moment, many people have called it.
You talk about the securitization of Bitcoin.
Does these preferred stock instruments from Strategy directly compete with what you think BlackRock is trying to do?
No, absolutely not.
This is a whole economy that's being created, and MSTR's products are part of that overall economy.
So what's happening here is that MSTR is proving that we can take Bitcoin volatility, we can wrap it, and we can sell it as a stable investment.
That's how this works, right?
That's what a mortgage is to a certain extent.
It's volatility that's been stripped down and wrapped into a lending product that is now being pushed out based on a collateral known as real estate.
Well, you're going to see more and more of this when it comes to Bitcoin.
All different forms, all different ways, all different types of packages, all different flavors.
Anywhere where capital can be borrowed and credit can be created, Bitcoin will have an option to underpin some form of liquidity.
That's the overall Bitcoin economy that's being created right now.
By the way, I think this should be great because I actually think that, you know, I think property price, I think the world will be a lot better place if real estate prices are not going up the way that they have been going up for the last 35 years while it's been a de facto store value asset when you have Bitcoin.
Because people will be able to afford their own houses.
They'll be able to start their own families.
So there's a lot of good social things that will happen as a result of this rather than suffocating people with rising property expenses when wage growth and productivity growth has not been keeping up with asset price inflation.
So if we can just suck out all of that future asset price inflation from real estate, shove it into Bitcoin, you can now allow wages to catch up to current real estate prices and you should be sitting with a more abundant future.
Beautiful.
currently at bitcoin's market cap it's about uh it's about 0.18 percent of total global wealth if
we look at total global wealth one quadrillion dollars we're still not even close to the
thresholds that we could hit and these different instruments that are being released by strategy
the securitization that you mentioned is on the horizon for blackrock all of those things stand
to siphon the monetary premium the excess capital out of these markets out of real estate out of
bonds out of money markets and into Bitcoin. And I think that's a huge net positive. Given
Bitcoin's market cap, it seems that we're very early on this journey. You know, as far as these
different asset markets go between real estate, bonds, equities, money markets, which of these
do you think stands to have its monetary premium siphoned first and the fastest? I tend to believe
that it's real estate, given its role in American life, given how overvalued it is relative to the
actual replacement costs of it. I put out a report last summer estimating that anywhere from 35 to
over 50% of the value in U.S. real estate specifically is pure monetary premium, so value
that's not in the bricks and mortar or the value of the land, but just this excess capital layer
that exists on top of the property itself. Which of these asset markets are you looking at and
saying that's the one that Bitcoin is going to siphon the most liquidity from and why?
Well, there's two questions here, right? There's two scenarios here. Number one, the liquidity that's already in the asset coming out. And then there is new capital and where that new liquidity goes into.
I think it's more likely that a higher percentage and an increasing percentage of new liquidity comes into Bitcoin.
I think that there is going to be, you know, I don't think there's going to be as much of a flight from, you know, from existing liquidity.
However, if it was going to happen, it's going to be through real estate.
It's not going to be public market equities.
It's not going to be the bond market because, again, all of these are those are systemic things that need to need to stay in place.
Whereas real estate, if we start seeing like, for example, they've just signed an executive order that, you know, like institutions can't purchase single family homes.
Yeah, they can't buy single family homes, which, by the way, was the case for so long.
Right. It's only after 08 that that actually turned into a thing.
So as that starts to happen, you may see some capital flight from institutions and then the institutions will reallocate. But the individual, I think it's much more smarter for them to use, you know, maybe a service like Horizon where they're going to free up some liquidity and shove it into Bitcoin, but without actually selling the underlying real estate assets. So I think that's what's that's what's probably the step one. But we'll see over time what happens. But if I had to guess, I think it will be real estate.
Yeah, me as well. I think it's just it's ripe for disruption, right? At this at this point in time, you've never seen the monthly cost for owning a home higher than it is right now across the United States on average.
You know, and that's anywhere, anywhere, anywhere. And it's not working families. It's it's not a good thing to see, particularly for young people.
I think the shift that we're seeing in young people is really monumental. You're not hearing them talk about wanting to own a home anymore.
You're hearing them talk about wanting to own more assets, right?
Wanting them to become wealthy, these different things.
Well, firstly, the fact that young people, because when I was growing up, young people
weren't saying that.
The fact that young people are actually saying that and differentiating between their own
home and what an asset is, is I don't think people understand how positive that is, right?
Like that is huge that we are dealing with an extremely smart cohort of young people
there.
So I think all of that's really great.
I think the fact that people understand
that you buy your own home, that's a liability.
You buy an investment property, that's an investment.
Separation of those two things is extremely valuable.
I'm very, very positive on the future of young people
that are thinking like that.
We just got to get that opportunity more spread out
so people can start thinking about acquiring their own home
so they can create their own space
and then they can have their own space
to actually think from.
That's really what I want to see.
And that's why I want to see real estate
take the biggest blow here because I want young people to have their own space.
I don't want it to cost 70% of their monthly income. I want it to be a place where they can
actually build from. That's what I want to see. Yeah, we want to see real estate collapse back
to its utility value so that owning a home is democratized. Once again, it's not a financial
asset. If you want a home to be a financial asset, buy a rental property that cash flows for you,
buy an investment property, commercial or otherwise, buying a home and using it as your
store of value as the largest portion of your retirement or your net worth. It just really isn't
the game these days. And we're seeing that with young people. And I hope that that trend accelerates.
One of the other things in your bio that I want to ask you about, you said that you've been creating
whole coiners since 2020. So why does owning one whole Bitcoin matter now that we're at $100,000?
Do you think that's accessible for most people? And if so, how on earth do they get there? What
are some practical steps? It's absolutely accessible to the people that want it accessible.
and it's absolutely not accessible to people that give up at the thought of it.
So look, you know, my, a lot of people have asked me like,
I've been doing this now for four years and it's like, does your,
does your message change? Does your,
does your idea of get to one Bitcoin change now? And my,
and I thought about it for a while, especially, you know,
when we crossed a hundred thousand dollars,
it was a pretty sad and happy moment for me.
Cause obviously it was fantastic for me personally, for my friends, my family,
everyone else that listened and got involved.
But kind of for the world it was like well what happens here now What happens to my message of getting to one Bitcoin At it probably 0 of the world that can actually get to one Bitcoin And that if they did something today right Not when we get to or or So it only diminishing from here
But I kind of decided that I was not going to change my message.
Bitcoin is a finite asset.
Therefore, I think that there are finite periods of messaging that you should have.
And so I'm completely happy to, you know, if it comes to it, then just disappear and have a timestamp of this was my timestamp in Bitcoin.
And that's it.
Like, do I think it's possible?
Yeah, I've seen people that have followed me, that message me from, you know, the Philippines that tell me they managed to get to one Bitcoin.
And then I see crybabies from the UK, the US, Australia, Canada tell me they can't get to one Bitcoin.
So it's at the end of the day, it's how badly do you want it?
How badly do you see the urgency of it?
And then are you going to get to it?
At the end of the day, look, I think there's a lot of tree huggers that took over Bitcoin in the last few years.
And the reality is, is that Bitcoin is a monetary network.
How much of it you own is important, which is why Michael Saylor is trying to accelerate towards a million coins as quick as humanly possible.
Right.
Because he understands this is a monetary network. It's not a how many free hugs did you get today network? How many empanada stands did you actually teach to accept Bitcoin network? It's a how much Bitcoin do you own for your last name, for your bloodline, for everyone that comes after you, because this is your one chance to actually own that amount of Bitcoin, because it is absolutely finite.
We as human beings have been completely spoiled by the idea of assets being finite.
There's always another opportunity.
There's always something else that you can do.
There's always a new gold discovery.
There's always a new building going up.
There's always a new hot city.
There's always a new company.
There's always a new unicorn.
There's always a new some bullshit.
There is only one Bitcoin.
and you have to choose for eternity
how much of it you
and the people that come after you will own.
Beautiful. Very well said.
Yeah, I think especially in the West,
all too often we may look at Bitcoin
and we start to think of it
not as a sort of value,
but as a medium of exchanges and money.
I think those utilities are important
for folks who aren't in Western nations
or developed countries.
But for those that are,
store of value is the chief function
that Bitcoin holds.
So I really appreciate your framing there.
You talked about Michael Saylor. He had another huge Bitcoin buy this Monday or this Tuesday, rather.
22,000 Bitcoin. They now hold over 700,000 Bitcoin, so 709,000 BTC.
A lot of people are saying that the price pump over the last couple of days was exclusively from strategy, which is pretty funny.
Regardless of that, why on earth do you think Saylor is stacking so hard?
Every week I try and wind people up every time he does that.
And my retweet of his post is, you know, what does Salen know?
And of course, Salen knows one thing, that finality of scarcity is extremely important.
He understands that the economy of Bitcoin in the securities world is being built.
He understands how much capital is coming.
He's speaking to banks.
He's speaking to people.
He's trying to help people understand that you can build products wrapped around Stretch, for example.
and he understands how this economy is being built
and what type of liquidity is going to come into this space
so he understands the value of acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible.
That's why they're going at a clip.
Like, you know, I got caught up in this whole Bitcoin treasury world, right,
over the summer.
And I put like half of 1% of my net worth into other treasury companies
and then spent 80% of my time thinking about them.
Right. And I realized I was like, this is completely useless because strategy is the winner.
Right. Out of everyone, no matter what anyone does, strategy is the winner.
So I'm just going to I'm going to put I'm going to put sell orders and all that other stuff on that half a percent, which is probably like 0.2 percent at this point.
And then just focus on my core portfolio, which is Bitcoin, MSTR and then, you know, a small income position.
So it's like, that's it. It is the winner. Saylor knows it's the winner. He understands how important it is to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. And he's doing that for shareholders like me as best as he can. And that's all I need him to do. Just acquire as much Bitcoin as possible, as quick as humanly possible before the flood comes.
Beautiful.
So obviously last year was Bitcoin Treasury Mania.
You mentioned that over the summer you got wrapped up in all of this,
as a lot of people did.
And you were doing all the math on this company or that company,
why this company has an edge or why the other companies have an edge.
So what are your big learnings from that?
And for viewers, what's the difference between strategy
and what they're doing and what everybody else is doing?
And what's your contention on what they should focus on?
Yeah, look, look, bottom line is this, right?
Like the way I like to think about portfolios in general and my portfolio specifically is that there's three buckets to a portfolio.
There's a savings bucket, an investment bucket, and an income bucket.
And so for me, my savings bucket is Bitcoin.
That's the hurdle rate, right?
So I have an X percent in my savings bucket.
That's just Bitcoin.
Everything in the investment bucket has to generate a higher return than the savings bucket because otherwise I should just take it out of the investment bucket and put it into the savings bucket.
And so Bitcoin's kegering, let's say, at, you know, 30% a year over the next decade, right?
Something like it, whatever it is.
Well, the investment bucket has to keger more than that.
And the question is, is what type of risk, the way I like to think about it is what type of risk-adjusted return would I need to not just hold Bitcoin?
And so my thought process was, I think 45% is pretty good, right?
And so that to me is my kind of like 40 to 45%.
If MSTR did 40 to 45% while Bitcoin does 30%, I'm pretty happy with that.
I'm pretty happy with the risk adjusted return on that for me.
Well, every one of these other treasury companies is not competing with Bitcoin.
They're actually competing with MSTR, right?
Because if you've got a brain, then the way you should be looking at it is if I can just like if MSTR only gives me a 25% return, well, then I should just hold the Bitcoin because it's not worth the risk adjusted return.
It might not even be worth it at 35%.
If Bitcoin is giving 30%, MSTR is giving 35%, maybe the volatility is just not worth it and I just hold the Bitcoin.
Well, what's the advantage of holding all these other treasury companies when I can just have MSTR, which is the biggest treasury company in the world, has the most amount of Bitcoin, is already ingrained into the financial markets, has been through multiple now corrections, has been through an entire bear market cycle, has got Michael Saylor behind it, who is one of the smartest people that I've ever had the pleasure of meeting and one of the most fastest thinking people I've ever had the pleasure of meeting.
and not only that, he's absolutely proven that him and his team can execute and duck and jive
with the market to get the result of acquiring more Bitcoin for me. Why do I want to screw around
with all these other treasury companies? So that was my thinking and that's what I've come to. I
think all of them are great. I think I support everyone who's chasing more Bitcoin, whether it's
an individual, a company, or a country. If you are pursuing more Bitcoin for yourself, I'm in support
of you. I don't need to own your stock in order to support you doing that. And that's the most
beautiful thing about Bitcoin, because unlike the internet boom, where you couldn't own a piece of
the internet that every internet company was chasing, with Bitcoin, I can just own a piece
of the Bitcoin that every company is chasing. So I don't need to take that risk adjusted,
I don't need to take that risk adjusted return. So that's my thinking. And when I realized that I
was taking, you know, putting half a percent of my net worth into all these other treasury
companies and spending 80% of my time thinking about it, I thought it's better off me going and
smoking cigars. Very well said. Excellent. And that's a good choice for nicotine delivery as
well. That's a very choice. Absolutely. Absolutely. One of the tweets that you put out, and I'm
curious what you meant by this, or if you want to elucidate it a little bit further, you said that
if you don't see the game that's clearly been played to extract Bitcoin from retail over the
last 12 months, you tweeted this out a couple of days ago, you deserve neither your Bitcoin or the
opportunity to buy it again. So when you reference this game and this retail shakeout that's happened
over the year, what are you looking at? And what do you mean by that? Obviously, Bitcoin had a very
choppy year. We mentioned that at the beginning. It didn't have the blow off top that everybody was
expecting. What's the game that's being played here? And how can retail protect themselves to
not sell their Bitcoin or anything like that? Yeah, I mean, look, you know, that tweet came from
a position of frustration, to be honest. It was like, you know, I've come to realize that myself
and many other peers like yourself and other people have spent years now trying to educate
retail to not get completely railroaded by the volatility of the market. Understand what the
asset is. Have your own conviction, not just borrow British HODL's conviction, actually own
your own conviction. And then, you know, what did BlackRock prove in the first 18 months of
launching an ETF? That they can just toy with emotions. The market makers have their own
strategies and their own tools. And I've been recording videos for now, you know, almost three
years trying to explain to people that this is coming. I told them, like, as soon as this ETF
comes out, every trick in the book is going to be used to get you to hand over your Bitcoin.
And one of those tricks is lowering your dopamine because they understand how retail works. Retail are dopamine addicted rats. And so the moment that I lower the dopamine, the retail is going to give up the asset. It happens every single time in every single asset.
And I thought, okay, you know, these people understand this with Bitcoin.
And guess what we saw?
Just like every other time, the people that gave up their Bitcoin in the last year were the smallest account holders, not the largest.
The largest have been accumulating, and the smallest have been selling.
And so that tweet came from a little bit of frustration.
Because at the end of the day, all of this is great.
The most beautiful thing about Bitcoin, everyone thinks this is the thing that I get confused with.
I'm not from like Bitcoin.
I'm from real estate.
And in real estate, if I told you about a deal that I was doing, I had to watch my back
because now you're going to stab me in the back to get that deal.
So there was, I can't tell you any of this until the deal is done, right?
That's the world that I come from.
So when you come into a world like Bitcoin, where you can be open, you can actually share,
You can actually include people in this learning process.
You can actually explain things because the only thing that differentiates me and you as investors is the price, right?
The only thing that changes with my understanding of Bitcoin, your understanding of Bitcoin is the price at which I buy it.
That is the only asymmetry of information in the asset.
Whereas with real estate, it's not like that.
So you come into this place and you go, there's so many beautiful people trying to share this with everyone, trying to help everyone.
and then these retail morons just follow through the exact same thing every single time.
And then they'll complain about it.
They'll go trade meme coins.
They'll go trade treasury companies.
I know people that sold 50% of their Bitcoins by treasury companies that are 7XM NAV.
And I'm now complaining that they made the wrong choice.
It's like, I don't know.
Like at some point you just sit here and you go like, you don't deserve the Bitcoin that you hold.
What else can you say?
Very well said.
And so if you don't have conviction, if you have borrowed conviction, should we holders just sell their Bitcoin and reassess?
No, no, don't even reassess.
Just sell your Bitcoin.
Go find some meme coins to trade.
Go find something else and leave at least me the hell alone.
Right.
You can bother with everybody else.
Sell your Bitcoin.
Disappear because you clearly don't deserve any of it.
You're clearly going to end up exactly where you should end up.
You got one chance.
This is the part that I don't understand.
Like my dad was in real estate, right?
Like, let's say I missed out on London's real estate growth.
Well, I can still take that knowledge and apply it to Dubai, where I live now, right?
I could still take that and go, okay, what's the next hot city?
And I can apply that real estate knowledge and replicate that.
How are my children going to replicate what I know about Bitcoin?
It's impossible because Bitcoin is the exact same asset in London, New York, Miami, Dubai, Singapore, everywhere at the exact same time.
So we have one chance.
That's how seriously I take this.
So I get pissed off all the time because you have one chance.
You don't have unlimited chances at this thing.
and if you're going to sit there and go I'm going to acquire
all this Bitcoin and because I joined an X
community I going to dump 50 of it to buy a treasury company at a 7xm nav and then cry about it Not only that here the worst part It wasn even dumping it to buy a treasury company at 7xm nav
That treasury company goes down 50%.
So now they sell that to buy another treasury company for the NUX community that they joined
at a 3xm nav.
So just think about the amount of Bitcoin dilution you've just done.
You've just given away all your Bitcoin.
like that it's mind-boggling to me so again that but that's the this is not new i just had to
realize that i'm not from the bitcoin space i just had to bring some of that ruthlessness back
and understand that this is how the game works in the bitcoin space everyone wants to hug and you
know see how everything is going and basically make everyone feel good about their decisions
that's not my world if you got into the right thing and then you it up well that's what happened
You screwed it up. And it's not for me to sit there and feel any emotion about what you did,
because in my world, the world that I come up from, the world that I grew up in,
we'd be celebrating the fact that you screwed up. Very well said. Very unique perspective as well,
coming from the real estate industry. I want to ask you, speaking of market makers playing their
tricks, IBIT playing their tricks, or BlackRock playing their tricks, rather, as you kind of
alluded to over the last couple of years, Bitcoin has been severely underperforming since October
10th. Something seems to have happened. People are speculating that Wintermute or other market
makers got blown up and they've been turned into systematic sellers. What's your take on what
happened on October 10th, if any? And obviously, this doesn't matter in the long term view of
things. But do you have any sense of what may have happened on October 10th? Obviously, we know the
fallout of it. Retail is totally in the doldrums. They've given up. They're extremely upset. A lot
of people who were bullish are now flipping bearish. What do you think happened? Yeah,
Yeah, so look, retail was already in the doldrums because there was no retail hype going on into October 10th.
There was a lot of leverage.
There was a lot of trading.
There was a lot of speculation going on.
And then finally since that day, because there was this idea of a four-year cycle and whatever else,
and Plan B's idea that you sell 18 months after the halving, blah, blah, blah, it just lined up to October.
And so a lot of the people that were left over kind of got their soul sucked out of them as well.
And so, you know, that's been fun to watch.
As far as what actually happened, I don't know.
But from what I've read and from what I've spoken to people about, it looks like that there was a protocol error on some exchange somewhere around the world.
Apparently, it was Binance.
I don't know.
And that has been causing liquidity issues since then.
I think that should be done by now, at least from, you know, the people that I listen to and I've spoken to.
Like they tell me that should be done by now.
And now we're waiting for incoming purchases and incoming liquidity, which, by the way, we're getting.
We're getting long-term holders absorb this.
This is no longer an enthusiastic price action.
This goes back to before October 10th.
Here's what was going on.
This is how you know there's a smart buyer in the space.
Before October 10th, what was happening was people would dump their Bitcoin and Bitcoin would basically go down a percent or go down 3%, right?
Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 coins over a few days, and the price dipped by 3%.
What that tells you is that there is smart capital absorbing that Bitcoin.
This is an absorption game.
This is no longer an enthusiasm chasing game, which is what retail was doing, which is why
this cycle feels completely different to every other cycle.
Then October 10th happened.
And of course, those guys are going to have algorithms.
They're going to have things in place to go, shit, the Delta is running.
really accelerating right now to the millisecond so you know what i'm going to do i'm going to pull
all my buy orders and just see what happens here so then we had that flush down happen and then
there was you know a period of accumulation distribution whatever you want to call it so
now what we're seeing is again you see greenland situation happen you see the new tariffs come out
you see all this stuff and bitcoin drops two percent three percent right so i think we're back
to the process of absorption.
And remember, smart capital, institutional capital
does not chase an asset to the upside.
They put limit buy orders with a,
they put trailing limit buy orders as new highs happen.
And that's what's going on here.
That's how they're accumulating.
Retail has not been in this space
and that's why we haven't seen a blow off top.
Blow off tops are not controlled
and not created by institutions.
They're created by retail.
At some point, you will see that happen.
but it's just not happened yet.
Beautiful.
So speaking of the four-year cycle,
you brought it up briefly.
It seems to me that that was the biggest culprit here, right?
It became this sort of self-reinforcing feedback loop
where people believed that selling 18 months
after the halving is what you had to do.
October rolled around,
and then all of a sudden, you know,
people sort of reflexively sold.
It became this self-fulfilling prophecy almost.
Is your contention that now that institutions are in the game,
we didn't have a blow off top,
do you believe the four-year cycle is dead?
And if it's not dead yet,
What would have to be done in order to invalidate this idea of a four-year cycle in your mind?
I've been saying the four-year cycle is dead since we made a new all-time high before the halving, right?
So it's like, to me, the four-year cycle is absolutely dead.
It's always been dead.
But here's the final evidence of what needs to happen as far as I'm concerned to get everyone to understand that this thing is finally dead.
I think at this point, we need to make a new all-time high before we hit the 200-week moving average, which is typically where the price returns back down to after a top.
If we do that, that should be enough confirmation.
And of course, it won't be because retail are morons, right?
So, of course, they'll keep parroting the idea that four-year cycles still exist.
It's just extended.
It's this, that, and the other, whatever they want to say.
But smart money will realize that a four-year cycle narrative is completely dead.
And as soon as we make a new all-time high, we're going into explosive price discovery because now everyone starts chasing it because what the hell just happened?
So that's what I think we're waiting for.
I think we're waiting for a new all-time high and a blow-off top before we touch the 200-week moving average before the next halving.
Beautiful.
Over the course of the next year, obviously, we sit here in January.
This episode is either going to go live today or tomorrow in late January.
What's on your mind as we move into 2026?
We've talked about BlackRock.
We've talked about nation state adoption.
What are the biggest developments for Bitcoin on your mind as we move into the year?
There are a couple of things moving in D.C. right now.
Obviously, the Clarity Act is one of them.
That's been shot down.
Brian Armstrong pulled a support.
It doesn't seem like that impacted Bitcoin's price all too much.
As we move forward through the year, what are the things that you have your eye on as far as developments for Bitcoin are concerned?
The only thing I'm looking at is if BlackRock still has full support behind Bitcoin or not.
And people look at that and go, oh, that's pretty simplistic.
You're not looking for anything else new and exciting coming out for Bitcoin.
There is nothing new and exciting coming out for Bitcoin.
BlackRock was the key.
And I've been shouting that now for a couple of years.
And people are never going to believe me.
But that was the key.
BlackRock happened.
The politicians happened.
The institutions happened.
The credit markets happened.
Everything happened after BlackRock.
That's it.
Now we sit back and we wait.
Right?
This is the stage that we're at. Now we let the architects of the entire financial world figure it out and assimilate around Bitcoin. This is the best part of the game. All you've got to do now is sit on your hands and not be a slave to your own activity bias.
Is there going to be entertaining things that happen?
Sure.
I'm sure there's going to be a purchase by the US for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Great.
I'm sure Michael Saylor is going to get to a million Bitcoin for MSTR.
Fantastic.
I'm sure that there's going to be lending products on Bitcoin.
Amazing.
I'm sure that exchanges are going to blow up somewhere in the world and it's going to cause
liquidity crisis for Bitcoin.
Fantastic.
All of it's irrelevant.
The only thing that matters is BlackRock's in the game.
Salespeople for asset managers are going to be on the phones to people convincing them to make an allocation into Bitcoin for their portfolio.
Those salespeople are not like me where they're doing this shit for free for four years.
They're getting paid commissions based on the value of people's assets under management.
And as that Bitcoin portion starts accelerating, they're going to be more and more encouraged to allocate more to Bitcoin from their clients' portfolios.
And that flywheel is just going to continue.
And then, of course, we've got more liquidity coming.
And, of course, we've got the business cycle to start in the U.S.
We've got confidence to happen, etc.
All these things are going to happen, but none of it's exciting anymore.
It's all boring.
Either you own enough for the asset or you don't.
It's as simple as that. And the game change June 15th, 2023, which is the ETF application date for BlackRock.
And I told everyone that now you're going to have to sit here and either celebrate the fact that you got enough Bitcoin or cry about it.
Beautiful. Very well said. Yeah, that 4% recommendation coming out of B of A is a game changer.
Right. And so until a crisis hits, chances are the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is a slow and steady grind higher or grind sideways.
But as we know, when liquidity crises hit, Bitcoin is the fastest mover.
The last thing I want to ask you about here, you have a very, very simple message.
In that message, you have pinned in your Twitter profile, buy Bitcoin, shut up, get fabulously wealthy.
I left out two words in that second point just to make sure that we can stay monetized and don't get pulled off of YouTube.
But what's the power of just having one simple message?
We've talked about why most people will screw it up, why most people won't make it, and why that's just a natural sort of human behavior.
But why does the repetition of that one simple message beat the novelty of like recycling some new message to give to your audience every couple of months?
Well, I think, you know, for me, it's the same.
It's the same.
By the way, you can replace the step one to buy Bitcoin with any asset in the ever history of humankind.
And it would be right.
Right.
Like at some point it was by gold.
Right.
At some point it was by real estate.
Like at some point it was by land.
Right.
Like when New York was being made, the rule was buy land, STFU, get fabulously wealthy, right?
Like, so there was, it's the same rule.
Nothing's changed except now it's just Bitcoin.
So for me, I want consistency.
I want to be known for exactly one thing.
And then, you know, one of the things that allows me to do this for free for four years,
I don't even have YouTube monetization turned on.
The only thing that allows me to do this for free is because one day I know that I'll be right.
And that's my pale, that I was right.
And that's all I care about, being right.
And either you're going to be right with me because you listened.
And so since I started buying Bitcoin and telling people about it, I'm up, you know, roughly 20x, right?
And at some point it would be 100x.
And at some point it would be 150x.
or you'll be sitting there going,
I wish I would have listened.
And either one for me will be pleasurable.
Excellent.
So is that how you want to be remembered?
Being right?
Yeah, 100%.
I want to be right.
That's it for me.
That's my currency.
That's what I want to be known for.
We will be right.
I've already been right.
Right?
Started buying Bitcoin at roughly $5,000 a coin.
It's been the single best.
So you know what I figured out the other day?
I was calculating it
Because all these gold and silver, I used to be in the gold and silver space, right?
So I called all my gold and silver friends.
I was like, I'm selling all the gold and silver.
I'm buying Bitcoin.
And they all cussed me out at the time.
And I had dinner with Peter Schiff, actually, like a month and a half, two months ago.
And he was, like, upset that I'd sold my gold at 2,000 because I'd missed out on a 2x.
And I told him, Peter, like, I've 20x'd.
Like, if you had taken silver, right?
the bottom of 2020 sold all of your silver and put it into bitcoin silver today would have to
reach 300 and dollars an ounce to match the return that i already have with bitcoin right so from my
perspective like all of these people that are celebrating all this it's it's it's utterly crazy
to me bitcoin is the game blackrock is telling you it's the game the u.s government is telling
you it's the game the c-suite of the u.s government is telling you it's the game everyone is telling
you it's the game and you're sitting here going but maybe it's gold you're a moron beautiful it
certainly seems to be the game it seems extremely undervalued relative to everything else right now
viewers of this show and longtime fans of british huddle know exactly what to do during times like
these british thank you so much for coming on the show man before we part ways i know a lot of people
who are watching this already follow you but for those that may not be working they find more of
work and listen to more of these great Bitcoin rants that you've got.
I'm on, firstly, thanks for having me. I appreciate it. I'm on two places. That's
YouTube and X. That's it. Nowhere else.
Fantastic. And I'll link both of those in the show notes in the video description. So wherever
you're watching this, you'll be able to find them. British, thanks again for coming on. Appreciate it.
My pleasure. Thanks.