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Welcome back to Over the Horizon, a Bitcoin podcast.

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Today we're talking to one of the most straightforward voices in Bitcoin,

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a former TradFi investor who's all in on Bitcoin

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and is calling for $340,000 Bitcoin before the next having.

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British HODL. British, thank you so much for joining us.

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My pleasure. Thanks for having me.

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Absolutely. So let's just dive straight into it.

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If you want to give like a quick 30-second intro about your background

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in finance, real estate, and gold and what made you shift into Bitcoin.

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Yeah, so I started working.

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My dad was always in real estate. That's his background. And I started working when I was about 15 years old, 16 years old. First foray was in real estate. And my first recession was 2008. It was a pretty, pretty gnarly one, right? So everything since then doesn't feel like a recession to me. And it's kind of like a walk in the park.

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So that was my first foray and then transition into, you know, equities, gold, silver, and then finally into Bitcoin in 2020 after reading the Bitcoin standard.

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Excellent. And so I suppose the next logical question would be what convinced you to move out of gold and real estate and into Bitcoin specifically?

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There are numerous reasons why Bitcoin is a superior store of value to real estate.

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One of the themes of the show, obviously, Horizon as a company helps people convert their home equity into Bitcoin.

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So we take the position that Bitcoin is superior to real estate.

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But from your perspective, what are the big factors that make Bitcoin a superior store of value, superior asset to own?

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And how should real estate investors and homeowners be thinking about it when they're thinking about their portfolio construction?

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Yeah, look, you know, I think real estate was the game.

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It clearly is. It's a 360 or 70 trillion dollar asset worldwide.

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It clearly was the game for liquidity.

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Unfortunately, you can't just keep compounding real estate at the rate it's been going.

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So every few years, every few generations, there's a new asset that comes around.

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And that's now the asset of choice for all this printed liquidity to go into.

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And I just have complete confidence that that asset is now going to be Bitcoin.

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The advantage of Bitcoin is that you don't have any social consequences, right?

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You can get into, you can print as much money as you want and shove it into Bitcoin.

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Unlike real estate, you're not going to get anyone on the street.

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You're not going to get anyone homeless.

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You're not going to get anyone complaining.

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You can just print as much money as you want and you never have to take your foot off the gas pedal.

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And so that's what I think Bitcoin is going to turn into.

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Of course, this is a long-term horizon, no pun intended, you know, perspective on Bitcoin.

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But that's what I really think is going on here.

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And as far as precious metals go, it was just one idea.

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So, you know, I always thought Bitcoin was a complete scam, like most TradFi investors.

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And a friend of mine, we have a little investment group, and he called me, someone I very much respect.

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And he said, look, I'm pivoting 20% of my portfolio into Bitcoin.

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And as I'm on the verge, us Brits sort of cuss each other out as a way of talking nicely to each other.

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And as I'm on the verge of cussing him out, he says, we're not going to even speak about this until you read the Bitcoin standard.

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and he hung up on me.

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And as I was listening to the Bitcoin standard,

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Saif Fedeen says the idea of stock to flow for Bitcoin,

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not the price model or anything like that,

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just the idea of stock to flow.

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And I realized instantly that I was looking at Bitcoin

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like an equity when I should have been looking at it

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like a commodity.

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And the second that happened,

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I realized it was like the matrix

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just sort of came out in front of me.

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I was like, oh, I know exactly where I've screwed up on this

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and had to readjust my worldview very quickly.

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Good thinking.

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Very good thing.

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I think, you know, that's ultimately something that I've heard from a lot of folks.

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I have sort of a blessing of having gone to college with people who were already in Bitcoin

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and Bitcoin at the point that I was in college was already a relatively mainstream asset.

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And so I come from sort of a unique world where Bitcoin is already integrated into the

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way that I view the market writ large, whereas for most people, they have to kind of overcome

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these informational hurdles. So speaking of precious metals as it pertains to Bitcoin,

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one of the things that you said that really caught my ear, which is that you thought of it

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as an equity. Discussing stock to flow, obviously, that's something that is a model in the commodities

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world. And so speaking of Bitcoin from a stock to flow perspective, it has the most superior

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stock to flow ratio, if you will, when it comes to a store of value. Yesterday, and I'll share this

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up on the screen as I'm talking, Bitcoin and gold diverge pretty heavily. The Japanese government

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bond yields are exploding. And as a result, there seems to be a lot of capital flight coming out of

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U.S. assets. You pair that with the Greenland remarks and it didn't help much at all. But I

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put this tweet out yesterday and it sent the gold bugs into a frenzy. This is the chart that went

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along with it. I said Bitcoin plummeting on geopolitical escalation rather than ripping

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with gold and silver tells you how early we are. So in my view, this is the largest informational

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asymmetry in markets. What's your take on the fact that Bitcoin and gold are still divergent

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assets and Bitcoin still isn't correlated to gold during moves like this. Yeah, I've been saying this

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for the last three years. Bitcoin is a risk-on asset and it is the furthest on the risk curve.

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And of course, as a Bitcoiner, I understand that it is actually the ultimate risk-off asset,

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but the market doesn't understand that yet because it's not a mature enough asset. So

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at some point, it will become a risk-off asset to the market, but right now it is perceived as a

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risk-on asset. So we need to wait until the capital starts flooding down the risk curve

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and then you're going to see Bitcoin perform. Gold is a really good indicator of potential

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incoming liquidity into a system. Bitcoin being a risk asset is reacting when the delta on the

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liquidity starts to accelerate. And so the velocity of the liquidity hasn't even started yet.

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So therefore, Bitcoin is underperforming. What we can see is that the equities markets seem to be

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doing quite well. So it is starting. The plumbing is there, but the liquidity hasn't started flowing

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and accelerating yet. And so for my thinking, it's very simple. Gold and silver are currently

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projecting that liquidity is going to come and it's making the move. And very soon we are going

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to see that liquidity come in. Now, I don't think that liquidity is going to rush in. I think we have

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got liquidity coming. I don't think it's going to rush in because I don't see anything in the system

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really broken yet as far as the US goes. I know the Japanese bond yields are going through the

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roof, but based on what I can see, there's not much bond volatility going on in the US.

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And when that happens, that's when the liquidity will start coming in and it won't come in until

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then. That could be two weeks, it could be six months. I don't know when that's going to happen.

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But what I'm looking at is when does the Japanese bond rates become attractive enough for people to

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start selling U.S. bonds to pivot into Japanese bonds. And then you're going to see some dislocation

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in U.S. markets, which is when the liquidity will start. Because we've seen time and again that

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whenever there's a crisis, the Fed's immediate response function is to inject as much liquidity

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as they can. And if we look back... But there has to be a crisis first, right? And as of this moment,

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the market is perceiving that the Japanese bond market is an isolated incident right now.

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Very well said.

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When in reality, the carry trade sort of underpins this concept of free money worldwide, right?

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And it's extremely important to asset markets.

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And the fact that Japanese government bond yields are rising right now is a huge signal that money is no longer free.

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And if we know one thing heading into the U.S. midterms, basically all that one of the major things that President Trump has on his side right now is making sure that asset prices rise.

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And so in my view, and I'm sure you agree with this, he's going to do everything in his power to make sure that asset prices rise.

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Trade seemingly unwinding here is not something he wants to see because it's going to have a negative impact on prices, asset prices, people's 401ks.

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That's going to lead them to not vote for the incumbent, to vote for the other party.

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And so it seems to me that he's going to do everything in his power to inject liquidity into markets here.

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Yeah, and he's got the best person at the helm of the Treasury to actually get this done.

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You know, Scott Bessent is an animal when it comes to financial markets.

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He understands exactly how these things work, and he's going to do what it takes to get it to happen.

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He's already started talking about the fact that you've got tax credits coming in.

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You know, what they want, and he's been very clear about it, is we want Wall Street to win.

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We want Main Street to win.

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We want everybody to win.

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So, you know, as that happens, I'm sure you've spoken about the fact that the leverage ratios have been changed.

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That was optional from Jan 1st.

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It's mandatory by April 1st.

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They've got $8 to $10 trillion of debt to refry.

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You've got all that coming in.

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You've got fiscal stimulus coming in from the tax rebates, everything else.

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So there is a lot of liquidity coming.

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And that's what I believe gold and silver are sniffing out.

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But it's not started flowing yet.

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When it does, that's when you're going to see Bitcoin start to react.

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Very well said.

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Lawrence Lepard, he made a great chart.

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It was Bitcoin overlaid with gold.

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And he has said that gold moves first and Bitcoin follows harder.

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That's the statement that he's used.

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We've seen time and again, whether it's a 100-day lag, whether it's a full-year lag,

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that liquidity eventually moves up the risk curve.

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You see it first in commodities, gold and silver.

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Next, you see it in equities, which are sort of these lower beta risk assets,

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or obviously they are the market.

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The S&P 500 is the benchmark rate.

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And then it moves out into those really, really high beta risk assets like Bitcoin.

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And so ostensibly over the course of this year, as this crisis continues to materialize,

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you're going to see that liquidity pivoted to the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, single stock names,

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and then eventually out into Bitcoin and other high beta risk assets.

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Yeah, completely agreed. It's got to flow down the risk curve and it hasn't started yet.

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Very well said. So I want to ask about, you know, this idea of diminishing marginal returns. I'm

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curious your take on it. For a very long time, people ascribed to this notion, myself included,

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that as Bitcoin grew in size,

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it would have these diminishing marginal returns.

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We've had blow-off tops in every prior cycle.

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This cycle, we did not see a blow-off top.

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We saw Bitcoin make a new all-time high last year,

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but it did so very quietly.

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It did so without a lot of mania,

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and it did so in such a way that left investors

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really waiting for more and wanting more

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and saying that this was a bear market,

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a bunch of different things.

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The one thing that throws a wrench into the idea

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of diminishing marginal returns for me

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is what we saw gold do over the last 18 and 24 months, right?

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gold has more than doubled its market cap over the last 18 to 24 months being a much larger asset

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and so to me that kind of signals that this notion of bitcoin kind of decelerating in its growth

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as it grows isn't necessarily true isn't necessarily always going to hold you put out a tweet that said

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bitcoin is boring now that's a good thing for a store of value when you say bitcoin is boring what

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do you mean by that and do you think that diminishing marginal returns are a certainty in

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Bitcoin's future or because of the move that we saw in gold and silver, that opens up the floodgates

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for Bitcoin to potentially go parabolic, despite now being a much larger asset. Yeah, I think you

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mentioned it right there in the end. Forget gold. Look at silver, right? The fact that silver has

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done what it's done is, you know, anyone should be going, yeah, I mean, for Bitcoin to triple is

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not that far-fetched if silver can do it, right? So yeah, I think Bitcoin's getting boring from the

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sense that it's no longer exciting to retail, but it's getting more and more of an incumbent

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asset for institutional capital.

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It's becoming a must own asset.

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This is the difference that we had last year.

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What we pivoted for Bitcoin was the question of, do I need to own Bitcoin?

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Change to how much Bitcoin do I need to own?

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That's a monumental shift in the psychology of a portfolio of a portfolio manager.

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So now everybody understands that they need to own some Bitcoin.

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And the question is, is what?

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is your allocation. And of course, Bank of America and everybody else is saying 4%. That will

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accelerate as soon as their fees start coming in. Once the advisors start realizing that their

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commissions are very much linked to Bitcoin's price action, I'm sure that 4% will grow to 8%

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very quickly. And this is the start of this allocation cycle. So, you know, do I believe

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in diminishing returns? Technically, you should have diminishing returns as an asset matures.

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but what happens when an asset is going through its capital saturation moment we haven't bitcoin

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hasn't gone through a capital saturation moment there's 900 trillion dollars worth of worth of

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liquidity out there it's got to grab some of that how fast that comes is not up to any chart any

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person any any anything right that is just dependent on human psyche and the moment that

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everybody decides that they need to own a piece just like what happened with tesla in 2019 and

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2020. It's going to happen with Bitcoin at some point. And then we'll see what happens. I do not

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think that diminishing returns are guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination. Absolutely. And

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speaking to gold and silver, silver specifically, I ran the calculation, silver's market cap is like

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$5.2 trillion now. Bitcoin's is $1.7 trillion. All the viewers of this show will recall that

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at one point, Bitcoin did have a higher market cap than silver. Silver made this move. And so if

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you were to overlay silver's current market cap with Bitcoin's price, that implies the Bitcoin

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price of $265,000. We'll talk about institutions in a moment because I want to get your take on

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Larry Fink and the fact that iBit was so successful for them and what that means for institutions

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and capital allocators more broadly But you called for Bitcoin before the next halving Obviously the halving is approaching right We a ways away from it still but it coming soon So the price target that you put on Bitcoin is actually higher

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than the implied price target for Bitcoin if we just use silver's market cap. What leads you to

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make that prediction? So my price target, just to correct you slightly, is $340,000 plus or minus

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15% before the next halving. I think that will be the quote unquote blow off top and then we'll

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go through some kind of distribution phase. There's a couple of different things that kind

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of got me there, which I've never spoken about, and I'm probably not going to start now. So the

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way I look at it, there's three particular indicators and three particular things that I

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observed that make me go, I think this is the price target. We'll see if we hit it.

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I'm not a chartist. I'm not someone who sits here and looks at technicals.

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so I don't even want to have that debate with anybody,

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which is why I haven't even gone into explaining

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why I think that's going to happen.

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But it seems to fit in some kind of range for a lot of people,

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and so we'll see what happens.

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But based on what I can see, that's my price target,

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340 plus or minus 15% before the next halving.

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Excellent.

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So I want to pivot and ask you about institutions.

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Obviously, you said one of the major things going in Bitcoin's corner last year and even the year before were the institutions coming in.

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BlackRock, Larry Fink has come out and said that the Ibet ETF was their most successful ETF launch of all time in terms of revenue.

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If you look at the pacing of it relative to other ETF launches in history, it is the most successful ETF launch in history by numerous metrics.

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So what's your take on BlackRock and, you know, these multi-trillion dollar pools of capital that are sitting on the sidelines?

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What sort of precedent does it set that now you have institutions like Harvard coming out and it's the largest single asset in their endowment?

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What does that do for the perception of Bitcoin and what kind of precedent does it set?

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You know, two years ago, I said that the single most important event for Bitcoin since inception was the BlackRock ETF.

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And it is the most important thing for the next 10 years.

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Because everyone looks at it and goes, oh, no, but a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the US is certainly more important, more significant of an event than the Ibit ETF.

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And that's someone that does not understand how financial markets work.

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Because it's because you have the Ibit ETF that you're getting a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

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That's how this works.

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If you think that your politicians sat around one day and thought, you know what, we should all do over one summer is everyone read the Bitcoin standard and suddenly get on board with this thing.

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Then you are delusional.

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That's not how this works.

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Larry Fink, Robert Michnick, who, by the way, is the architect of the IBIT ETF, is the person who actually drove this through.

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And then Larry Fink, to his credit, someone who sits there, someone who does not need to change his mind about anything. He's got the most impact in the financial markets, sat there and said, you know what, I've probably been thinking about this wrong. Let me understand what's going on here. He understood what's going on. He changed his mind. He came into the space and they have the number one ETF, not only in Bitcoin, but ever. Right.

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And so that's how monumental that shift was.

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Everything else that comes after it is no longer interesting.

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It is a downstream effect.

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The moment they filed for the ETF, I said, you're going to see that everyone who was

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negative on Bitcoin is suddenly going to be positive.

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It took, I thought it would take a few months.

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It took three weeks for KPMG to release a report saying Bitcoin is now good for the environment

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because that's how everything works.

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It works after capital starts moving.

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with BlackRock behind Bitcoin, Bitcoin's a dumb deal at this point. That's why I said it's getting

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boring now because it is an absolute dumb deal. If you're sitting there looking at daily price

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action and daily price movements, and this is going on and that's going on, you're missing the

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picture of what's going on here. They're building an entire securitized economy around Bitcoin,

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just like they did real estate. And if you want to, you know, the real estate market that we know

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today as an asset is really since like the 50s, the 60s, because that's when mortgages became

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securitized. And so there was a whole process of that going on. Before that, it was just a property,

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right? It wasn't this $370 trillion asset. And how do you know that that's exactly what's going

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to happen with Bitcoin? Because the person who was behind mortgage-backed securities was Larry

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Fink. This is his second go around. This is not his first rodeo when it comes to taking an asset

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that has got some kind of scarcity to it,

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turning it into a securitized economy,

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and then figuring out how to generate

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unlimited amounts of printed liquidity

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and shove it into that asset as fast as possible.

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And with Bitcoin, he's actually got

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absolute finality of scarcity, unlike real estate.

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And you don't need to convince anyone to borrow any money

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because I can just funnel it straight through the institutions.

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I don't need to get individual morons involved

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and then worry about whether they're going to be able

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to make their payments or not.

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That's the beautiful thing about this.

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So, yeah, this is what's going on here.

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Ibit is the single, BlackRock is the single most important contributor to Bitcoin since the inception of Bitcoin.

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So it's number two.

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First thing was actually Bitcoin coming out, and now it's BlackRock.

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And now you're just going to see all the dominoes one after the other fall.

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It's going to be every institution.

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It's going to be every country.

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It's going to be every central bank.

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It's going to be everyone.

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Because at the end of the day, when Larry calls, you say yes.

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Very well said.

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So speaking of the securitization of Bitcoin, I want to talk about MSTR.

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Strategy has been on a tear.

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Last year, they released four different preferred stock variations.

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Stretch, chief among them that has proven to be the most successful, their iPhone moment, many people have called it.

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You talk about the securitization of Bitcoin.

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Does these preferred stock instruments from Strategy directly compete with what you think BlackRock is trying to do?

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No, absolutely not.

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This is a whole economy that's being created, and MSTR's products are part of that overall economy.

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So what's happening here is that MSTR is proving that we can take Bitcoin volatility, we can wrap it, and we can sell it as a stable investment.

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That's how this works, right?

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That's what a mortgage is to a certain extent.

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It's volatility that's been stripped down and wrapped into a lending product that is now being pushed out based on a collateral known as real estate.

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Well, you're going to see more and more of this when it comes to Bitcoin.

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All different forms, all different ways, all different types of packages, all different flavors.

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Anywhere where capital can be borrowed and credit can be created, Bitcoin will have an option to underpin some form of liquidity.

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That's the overall Bitcoin economy that's being created right now.

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By the way, I think this should be great because I actually think that, you know, I think property price, I think the world will be a lot better place if real estate prices are not going up the way that they have been going up for the last 35 years while it's been a de facto store value asset when you have Bitcoin.

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Because people will be able to afford their own houses.

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They'll be able to start their own families.

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So there's a lot of good social things that will happen as a result of this rather than suffocating people with rising property expenses when wage growth and productivity growth has not been keeping up with asset price inflation.

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So if we can just suck out all of that future asset price inflation from real estate, shove it into Bitcoin, you can now allow wages to catch up to current real estate prices and you should be sitting with a more abundant future.

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Beautiful.

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currently at bitcoin's market cap it's about uh it's about 0.18 percent of total global wealth if

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we look at total global wealth one quadrillion dollars we're still not even close to the

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thresholds that we could hit and these different instruments that are being released by strategy

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the securitization that you mentioned is on the horizon for blackrock all of those things stand

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to siphon the monetary premium the excess capital out of these markets out of real estate out of

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bonds out of money markets and into Bitcoin. And I think that's a huge net positive. Given

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Bitcoin's market cap, it seems that we're very early on this journey. You know, as far as these

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different asset markets go between real estate, bonds, equities, money markets, which of these

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do you think stands to have its monetary premium siphoned first and the fastest? I tend to believe

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that it's real estate, given its role in American life, given how overvalued it is relative to the

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actual replacement costs of it. I put out a report last summer estimating that anywhere from 35 to

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over 50% of the value in U.S. real estate specifically is pure monetary premium, so value

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that's not in the bricks and mortar or the value of the land, but just this excess capital layer

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that exists on top of the property itself. Which of these asset markets are you looking at and

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saying that's the one that Bitcoin is going to siphon the most liquidity from and why?

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Well, there's two questions here, right? There's two scenarios here. Number one, the liquidity that's already in the asset coming out. And then there is new capital and where that new liquidity goes into.

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I think it's more likely that a higher percentage and an increasing percentage of new liquidity comes into Bitcoin.

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I think that there is going to be, you know, I don't think there's going to be as much of a flight from, you know, from existing liquidity.

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However, if it was going to happen, it's going to be through real estate.

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It's not going to be public market equities.

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It's not going to be the bond market because, again, all of these are those are systemic things that need to need to stay in place.

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Whereas real estate, if we start seeing like, for example, they've just signed an executive order that, you know, like institutions can't purchase single family homes.

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Yeah, they can't buy single family homes, which, by the way, was the case for so long.

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Right. It's only after 08 that that actually turned into a thing.

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So as that starts to happen, you may see some capital flight from institutions and then the institutions will reallocate. But the individual, I think it's much more smarter for them to use, you know, maybe a service like Horizon where they're going to free up some liquidity and shove it into Bitcoin, but without actually selling the underlying real estate assets. So I think that's what's that's what's probably the step one. But we'll see over time what happens. But if I had to guess, I think it will be real estate.

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Yeah, me as well. I think it's just it's ripe for disruption, right? At this at this point in time, you've never seen the monthly cost for owning a home higher than it is right now across the United States on average.

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You know, and that's anywhere, anywhere, anywhere. And it's not working families. It's it's not a good thing to see, particularly for young people.

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I think the shift that we're seeing in young people is really monumental. You're not hearing them talk about wanting to own a home anymore.

321
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You're hearing them talk about wanting to own more assets, right?

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Wanting them to become wealthy, these different things.

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Well, firstly, the fact that young people, because when I was growing up, young people

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weren't saying that.

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The fact that young people are actually saying that and differentiating between their own

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home and what an asset is, is I don't think people understand how positive that is, right?

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Like that is huge that we are dealing with an extremely smart cohort of young people

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there.

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So I think all of that's really great.

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I think the fact that people understand

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that you buy your own home, that's a liability.

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You buy an investment property, that's an investment.

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Separation of those two things is extremely valuable.

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I'm very, very positive on the future of young people

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that are thinking like that.

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We just got to get that opportunity more spread out

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so people can start thinking about acquiring their own home

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so they can create their own space

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and then they can have their own space

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to actually think from.

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That's really what I want to see.

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And that's why I want to see real estate

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take the biggest blow here because I want young people to have their own space.

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I don't want it to cost 70% of their monthly income. I want it to be a place where they can

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actually build from. That's what I want to see. Yeah, we want to see real estate collapse back

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to its utility value so that owning a home is democratized. Once again, it's not a financial

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asset. If you want a home to be a financial asset, buy a rental property that cash flows for you,

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buy an investment property, commercial or otherwise, buying a home and using it as your

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store of value as the largest portion of your retirement or your net worth. It just really isn't

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the game these days. And we're seeing that with young people. And I hope that that trend accelerates.

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One of the other things in your bio that I want to ask you about, you said that you've been creating

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whole coiners since 2020. So why does owning one whole Bitcoin matter now that we're at $100,000?

353
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Do you think that's accessible for most people? And if so, how on earth do they get there? What

354
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are some practical steps? It's absolutely accessible to the people that want it accessible.

355
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and it's absolutely not accessible to people that give up at the thought of it.

356
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So look, you know, my, a lot of people have asked me like,

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I've been doing this now for four years and it's like, does your,

358
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does your message change? Does your,

359
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does your idea of get to one Bitcoin change now? And my,

360
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and I thought about it for a while, especially, you know,

361
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when we crossed a hundred thousand dollars,

362
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it was a pretty sad and happy moment for me.

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Cause obviously it was fantastic for me personally, for my friends, my family,

364
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everyone else that listened and got involved.

365
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But kind of for the world it was like well what happens here now What happens to my message of getting to one Bitcoin At it probably 0 of the world that can actually get to one Bitcoin And that if they did something today right Not when we get to or or So it only diminishing from here

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But I kind of decided that I was not going to change my message.

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Bitcoin is a finite asset.

368
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Therefore, I think that there are finite periods of messaging that you should have.

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And so I'm completely happy to, you know, if it comes to it, then just disappear and have a timestamp of this was my timestamp in Bitcoin.

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And that's it.

371
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Like, do I think it's possible?

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Yeah, I've seen people that have followed me, that message me from, you know, the Philippines that tell me they managed to get to one Bitcoin.

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And then I see crybabies from the UK, the US, Australia, Canada tell me they can't get to one Bitcoin.

374
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So it's at the end of the day, it's how badly do you want it?

375
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How badly do you see the urgency of it?

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And then are you going to get to it?

377
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At the end of the day, look, I think there's a lot of tree huggers that took over Bitcoin in the last few years.

378
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And the reality is, is that Bitcoin is a monetary network.

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How much of it you own is important, which is why Michael Saylor is trying to accelerate towards a million coins as quick as humanly possible.

380
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Right.

381
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Because he understands this is a monetary network. It's not a how many free hugs did you get today network? How many empanada stands did you actually teach to accept Bitcoin network? It's a how much Bitcoin do you own for your last name, for your bloodline, for everyone that comes after you, because this is your one chance to actually own that amount of Bitcoin, because it is absolutely finite.

382
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We as human beings have been completely spoiled by the idea of assets being finite.

383
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There's always another opportunity.

384
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There's always something else that you can do.

385
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There's always a new gold discovery.

386
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There's always a new building going up.

387
00:28:56,422 --> 00:28:57,642
There's always a new hot city.

388
00:28:57,902 --> 00:28:59,243
There's always a new company.

389
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There's always a new unicorn.

390
00:29:01,203 --> 00:29:03,003
There's always a new some bullshit.

391
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There is only one Bitcoin.

392
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and you have to choose for eternity

393
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how much of it you

394
00:29:12,422 --> 00:29:14,983
and the people that come after you will own.

395
00:29:15,602 --> 00:29:16,662
Beautiful. Very well said.

396
00:29:16,723 --> 00:29:18,443
Yeah, I think especially in the West,

397
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all too often we may look at Bitcoin

398
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and we start to think of it

399
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not as a sort of value,

400
00:29:24,483 --> 00:29:25,862
but as a medium of exchanges and money.

401
00:29:26,102 --> 00:29:27,983
I think those utilities are important

402
00:29:27,983 --> 00:29:29,862
for folks who aren't in Western nations

403
00:29:29,862 --> 00:29:30,842
or developed countries.

404
00:29:31,082 --> 00:29:32,102
But for those that are,

405
00:29:32,383 --> 00:29:33,582
store of value is the chief function

406
00:29:33,582 --> 00:29:34,342
that Bitcoin holds.

407
00:29:34,463 --> 00:29:36,123
So I really appreciate your framing there.

408
00:29:36,123 --> 00:29:41,383
You talked about Michael Saylor. He had another huge Bitcoin buy this Monday or this Tuesday, rather.

409
00:29:41,743 --> 00:29:47,922
22,000 Bitcoin. They now hold over 700,000 Bitcoin, so 709,000 BTC.

410
00:29:48,203 --> 00:29:53,922
A lot of people are saying that the price pump over the last couple of days was exclusively from strategy, which is pretty funny.

411
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Regardless of that, why on earth do you think Saylor is stacking so hard?

412
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Every week I try and wind people up every time he does that.

413
00:30:03,123 --> 00:30:06,402
And my retweet of his post is, you know, what does Salen know?

414
00:30:06,703 --> 00:30:11,862
And of course, Salen knows one thing, that finality of scarcity is extremely important.

415
00:30:12,023 --> 00:30:18,483
He understands that the economy of Bitcoin in the securities world is being built.

416
00:30:18,483 --> 00:30:20,703
He understands how much capital is coming.

417
00:30:21,063 --> 00:30:22,123
He's speaking to banks.

418
00:30:22,243 --> 00:30:23,182
He's speaking to people.

419
00:30:23,303 --> 00:30:27,822
He's trying to help people understand that you can build products wrapped around Stretch, for example.

420
00:30:27,822 --> 00:30:32,203
and he understands how this economy is being built

421
00:30:32,203 --> 00:30:34,763
and what type of liquidity is going to come into this space

422
00:30:34,763 --> 00:30:38,682
so he understands the value of acquiring as much Bitcoin as possible.

423
00:30:39,102 --> 00:30:40,602
That's why they're going at a clip.

424
00:30:40,862 --> 00:30:45,463
Like, you know, I got caught up in this whole Bitcoin treasury world, right,

425
00:30:45,623 --> 00:30:46,803
over the summer.

426
00:30:46,803 --> 00:30:54,102
And I put like half of 1% of my net worth into other treasury companies

427
00:30:54,102 --> 00:30:57,483
and then spent 80% of my time thinking about them.

428
00:30:57,822 --> 00:31:03,763
Right. And I realized I was like, this is completely useless because strategy is the winner.

429
00:31:04,243 --> 00:31:08,123
Right. Out of everyone, no matter what anyone does, strategy is the winner.

430
00:31:08,123 --> 00:31:17,162
So I'm just going to I'm going to put I'm going to put sell orders and all that other stuff on that half a percent, which is probably like 0.2 percent at this point.

431
00:31:17,342 --> 00:31:24,803
And then just focus on my core portfolio, which is Bitcoin, MSTR and then, you know, a small income position.

432
00:31:24,803 --> 00:31:43,803
So it's like, that's it. It is the winner. Saylor knows it's the winner. He understands how important it is to acquire as much Bitcoin as possible. And he's doing that for shareholders like me as best as he can. And that's all I need him to do. Just acquire as much Bitcoin as possible, as quick as humanly possible before the flood comes.

433
00:31:44,662 --> 00:31:45,102
Beautiful.

434
00:31:45,502 --> 00:31:48,463
So obviously last year was Bitcoin Treasury Mania.

435
00:31:48,723 --> 00:31:52,063
You mentioned that over the summer you got wrapped up in all of this,

436
00:31:52,123 --> 00:31:53,102
as a lot of people did.

437
00:31:53,362 --> 00:31:56,463
And you were doing all the math on this company or that company,

438
00:31:56,563 --> 00:31:58,623
why this company has an edge or why the other companies have an edge.

439
00:31:58,822 --> 00:32:00,602
So what are your big learnings from that?

440
00:32:00,602 --> 00:32:03,943
And for viewers, what's the difference between strategy

441
00:32:03,943 --> 00:32:06,023
and what they're doing and what everybody else is doing?

442
00:32:06,322 --> 00:32:08,963
And what's your contention on what they should focus on?

443
00:32:09,623 --> 00:32:11,362
Yeah, look, look, bottom line is this, right?

444
00:32:11,362 --> 00:32:18,662
Like the way I like to think about portfolios in general and my portfolio specifically is that there's three buckets to a portfolio.

445
00:32:18,662 --> 00:32:21,623
There's a savings bucket, an investment bucket, and an income bucket.

446
00:32:22,422 --> 00:32:25,143
And so for me, my savings bucket is Bitcoin.

447
00:32:25,543 --> 00:32:27,243
That's the hurdle rate, right?

448
00:32:27,303 --> 00:32:30,082
So I have an X percent in my savings bucket.

449
00:32:30,203 --> 00:32:31,043
That's just Bitcoin.

450
00:32:32,002 --> 00:32:40,963
Everything in the investment bucket has to generate a higher return than the savings bucket because otherwise I should just take it out of the investment bucket and put it into the savings bucket.

451
00:32:40,963 --> 00:32:47,223
And so Bitcoin's kegering, let's say, at, you know, 30% a year over the next decade, right?

452
00:32:47,303 --> 00:32:48,623
Something like it, whatever it is.

453
00:32:48,943 --> 00:32:53,803
Well, the investment bucket has to keger more than that.

454
00:32:54,743 --> 00:33:02,602
And the question is, is what type of risk, the way I like to think about it is what type of risk-adjusted return would I need to not just hold Bitcoin?

455
00:33:03,303 --> 00:33:07,483
And so my thought process was, I think 45% is pretty good, right?

456
00:33:07,483 --> 00:33:12,283
And so that to me is my kind of like 40 to 45%.

457
00:33:12,283 --> 00:33:17,563
If MSTR did 40 to 45% while Bitcoin does 30%, I'm pretty happy with that.

458
00:33:17,902 --> 00:33:21,703
I'm pretty happy with the risk adjusted return on that for me.

459
00:33:22,223 --> 00:33:26,243
Well, every one of these other treasury companies is not competing with Bitcoin.

460
00:33:26,643 --> 00:33:30,483
They're actually competing with MSTR, right?

461
00:33:30,483 --> 00:33:44,422
Because if you've got a brain, then the way you should be looking at it is if I can just like if MSTR only gives me a 25% return, well, then I should just hold the Bitcoin because it's not worth the risk adjusted return.

462
00:33:44,422 --> 00:33:46,463
It might not even be worth it at 35%.

463
00:33:46,463 --> 00:33:53,203
If Bitcoin is giving 30%, MSTR is giving 35%, maybe the volatility is just not worth it and I just hold the Bitcoin.

464
00:33:53,203 --> 00:34:21,222
Well, what's the advantage of holding all these other treasury companies when I can just have MSTR, which is the biggest treasury company in the world, has the most amount of Bitcoin, is already ingrained into the financial markets, has been through multiple now corrections, has been through an entire bear market cycle, has got Michael Saylor behind it, who is one of the smartest people that I've ever had the pleasure of meeting and one of the most fastest thinking people I've ever had the pleasure of meeting.

465
00:34:21,222 --> 00:34:27,582
and not only that, he's absolutely proven that him and his team can execute and duck and jive

466
00:34:27,582 --> 00:34:33,722
with the market to get the result of acquiring more Bitcoin for me. Why do I want to screw around

467
00:34:33,722 --> 00:34:37,602
with all these other treasury companies? So that was my thinking and that's what I've come to. I

468
00:34:37,602 --> 00:34:42,183
think all of them are great. I think I support everyone who's chasing more Bitcoin, whether it's

469
00:34:42,183 --> 00:34:49,222
an individual, a company, or a country. If you are pursuing more Bitcoin for yourself, I'm in support

470
00:34:49,222 --> 00:34:54,962
of you. I don't need to own your stock in order to support you doing that. And that's the most

471
00:34:54,962 --> 00:35:00,623
beautiful thing about Bitcoin, because unlike the internet boom, where you couldn't own a piece of

472
00:35:00,623 --> 00:35:05,563
the internet that every internet company was chasing, with Bitcoin, I can just own a piece

473
00:35:05,563 --> 00:35:09,683
of the Bitcoin that every company is chasing. So I don't need to take that risk adjusted,

474
00:35:10,023 --> 00:35:14,623
I don't need to take that risk adjusted return. So that's my thinking. And when I realized that I

475
00:35:14,623 --> 00:35:18,802
was taking, you know, putting half a percent of my net worth into all these other treasury

476
00:35:18,802 --> 00:35:22,962
companies and spending 80% of my time thinking about it, I thought it's better off me going and

477
00:35:22,962 --> 00:35:28,742
smoking cigars. Very well said. Excellent. And that's a good choice for nicotine delivery as

478
00:35:28,742 --> 00:35:33,082
well. That's a very choice. Absolutely. Absolutely. One of the tweets that you put out, and I'm

479
00:35:33,082 --> 00:35:36,802
curious what you meant by this, or if you want to elucidate it a little bit further, you said that

480
00:35:36,802 --> 00:35:40,843
if you don't see the game that's clearly been played to extract Bitcoin from retail over the

481
00:35:40,843 --> 00:35:45,482
last 12 months, you tweeted this out a couple of days ago, you deserve neither your Bitcoin or the

482
00:35:45,482 --> 00:35:50,123
opportunity to buy it again. So when you reference this game and this retail shakeout that's happened

483
00:35:50,123 --> 00:35:54,002
over the year, what are you looking at? And what do you mean by that? Obviously, Bitcoin had a very

484
00:35:54,002 --> 00:35:58,082
choppy year. We mentioned that at the beginning. It didn't have the blow off top that everybody was

485
00:35:58,082 --> 00:36:02,343
expecting. What's the game that's being played here? And how can retail protect themselves to

486
00:36:02,343 --> 00:36:09,163
not sell their Bitcoin or anything like that? Yeah, I mean, look, you know, that tweet came from

487
00:36:09,163 --> 00:36:15,442
a position of frustration, to be honest. It was like, you know, I've come to realize that myself

488
00:36:15,442 --> 00:36:21,282
and many other peers like yourself and other people have spent years now trying to educate

489
00:36:21,282 --> 00:36:27,563
retail to not get completely railroaded by the volatility of the market. Understand what the

490
00:36:27,563 --> 00:36:35,123
asset is. Have your own conviction, not just borrow British HODL's conviction, actually own

491
00:36:35,123 --> 00:36:42,403
your own conviction. And then, you know, what did BlackRock prove in the first 18 months of

492
00:36:42,403 --> 00:36:48,203
launching an ETF? That they can just toy with emotions. The market makers have their own

493
00:36:48,203 --> 00:36:53,823
strategies and their own tools. And I've been recording videos for now, you know, almost three

494
00:36:53,823 --> 00:36:58,723
years trying to explain to people that this is coming. I told them, like, as soon as this ETF

495
00:36:58,723 --> 00:37:03,403
comes out, every trick in the book is going to be used to get you to hand over your Bitcoin.

496
00:37:03,403 --> 00:37:21,082
And one of those tricks is lowering your dopamine because they understand how retail works. Retail are dopamine addicted rats. And so the moment that I lower the dopamine, the retail is going to give up the asset. It happens every single time in every single asset.

497
00:37:21,082 --> 00:37:24,563
And I thought, okay, you know, these people understand this with Bitcoin.

498
00:37:24,742 --> 00:37:25,623
And guess what we saw?

499
00:37:25,742 --> 00:37:34,063
Just like every other time, the people that gave up their Bitcoin in the last year were the smallest account holders, not the largest.

500
00:37:34,203 --> 00:37:38,703
The largest have been accumulating, and the smallest have been selling.

501
00:37:39,242 --> 00:37:41,883
And so that tweet came from a little bit of frustration.

502
00:37:42,063 --> 00:37:45,242
Because at the end of the day, all of this is great.

503
00:37:45,582 --> 00:37:49,422
The most beautiful thing about Bitcoin, everyone thinks this is the thing that I get confused with.

504
00:37:49,422 --> 00:37:53,502
I'm not from like Bitcoin.

505
00:37:53,903 --> 00:37:55,262
I'm from real estate.

506
00:37:55,422 --> 00:38:02,242
And in real estate, if I told you about a deal that I was doing, I had to watch my back

507
00:38:02,242 --> 00:38:05,442
because now you're going to stab me in the back to get that deal.

508
00:38:05,683 --> 00:38:11,442
So there was, I can't tell you any of this until the deal is done, right?

509
00:38:11,703 --> 00:38:13,502
That's the world that I come from.

510
00:38:13,742 --> 00:38:18,683
So when you come into a world like Bitcoin, where you can be open, you can actually share,

511
00:38:18,683 --> 00:38:22,363
You can actually include people in this learning process.

512
00:38:22,502 --> 00:38:30,143
You can actually explain things because the only thing that differentiates me and you as investors is the price, right?

513
00:38:30,262 --> 00:38:35,482
The only thing that changes with my understanding of Bitcoin, your understanding of Bitcoin is the price at which I buy it.

514
00:38:35,663 --> 00:38:38,742
That is the only asymmetry of information in the asset.

515
00:38:38,922 --> 00:38:40,602
Whereas with real estate, it's not like that.

516
00:38:40,823 --> 00:38:46,863
So you come into this place and you go, there's so many beautiful people trying to share this with everyone, trying to help everyone.

517
00:38:46,863 --> 00:38:53,242
and then these retail morons just follow through the exact same thing every single time.

518
00:38:53,422 --> 00:38:54,863
And then they'll complain about it.

519
00:38:54,903 --> 00:38:56,043
They'll go trade meme coins.

520
00:38:56,223 --> 00:38:57,723
They'll go trade treasury companies.

521
00:38:58,002 --> 00:39:02,422
I know people that sold 50% of their Bitcoins by treasury companies that are 7XM NAV.

522
00:39:02,883 --> 00:39:05,363
And I'm now complaining that they made the wrong choice.

523
00:39:05,823 --> 00:39:06,742
It's like, I don't know.

524
00:39:06,823 --> 00:39:11,942
Like at some point you just sit here and you go like, you don't deserve the Bitcoin that you hold.

525
00:39:12,502 --> 00:39:13,742
What else can you say?

526
00:39:14,442 --> 00:39:15,023
Very well said.

527
00:39:15,023 --> 00:39:21,623
And so if you don't have conviction, if you have borrowed conviction, should we holders just sell their Bitcoin and reassess?

528
00:39:22,462 --> 00:39:23,582
No, no, don't even reassess.

529
00:39:23,663 --> 00:39:24,582
Just sell your Bitcoin.

530
00:39:24,982 --> 00:39:27,242
Go find some meme coins to trade.

531
00:39:27,523 --> 00:39:32,082
Go find something else and leave at least me the hell alone.

532
00:39:32,563 --> 00:39:32,782
Right.

533
00:39:32,942 --> 00:39:34,922
You can bother with everybody else.

534
00:39:35,343 --> 00:39:36,163
Sell your Bitcoin.

535
00:39:36,742 --> 00:39:39,462
Disappear because you clearly don't deserve any of it.

536
00:39:39,543 --> 00:39:42,242
You're clearly going to end up exactly where you should end up.

537
00:39:42,242 --> 00:39:44,343
You got one chance.

538
00:39:45,262 --> 00:39:46,703
This is the part that I don't understand.

539
00:39:46,843 --> 00:39:49,183
Like my dad was in real estate, right?

540
00:39:49,543 --> 00:39:54,843
Like, let's say I missed out on London's real estate growth.

541
00:39:55,082 --> 00:40:00,922
Well, I can still take that knowledge and apply it to Dubai, where I live now, right?

542
00:40:00,982 --> 00:40:03,962
I could still take that and go, okay, what's the next hot city?

543
00:40:04,163 --> 00:40:07,602
And I can apply that real estate knowledge and replicate that.

544
00:40:07,602 --> 00:40:12,742
How are my children going to replicate what I know about Bitcoin?

545
00:40:13,543 --> 00:40:24,982
It's impossible because Bitcoin is the exact same asset in London, New York, Miami, Dubai, Singapore, everywhere at the exact same time.

546
00:40:25,482 --> 00:40:26,442
So we have one chance.

547
00:40:26,462 --> 00:40:27,823
That's how seriously I take this.

548
00:40:27,863 --> 00:40:31,302
So I get pissed off all the time because you have one chance.

549
00:40:31,823 --> 00:40:34,203
You don't have unlimited chances at this thing.

550
00:40:34,203 --> 00:40:36,762
and if you're going to sit there and go I'm going to acquire

551
00:40:36,762 --> 00:40:38,623
all this Bitcoin and because I joined an X

552
00:40:38,623 --> 00:40:50,344
community I going to dump 50 of it to buy a treasury company at a 7xm nav and then cry about it Not only that here the worst part It wasn even dumping it to buy a treasury company at 7xm nav

553
00:40:50,624 --> 00:40:52,684
That treasury company goes down 50%.

554
00:40:53,224 --> 00:41:00,464
So now they sell that to buy another treasury company for the NUX community that they joined

555
00:41:00,464 --> 00:41:02,144
at a 3xm nav.

556
00:41:02,444 --> 00:41:05,784
So just think about the amount of Bitcoin dilution you've just done.

557
00:41:05,883 --> 00:41:07,524
You've just given away all your Bitcoin.

558
00:41:07,524 --> 00:41:14,544
like that it's mind-boggling to me so again that but that's the this is not new i just had to

559
00:41:14,544 --> 00:41:19,744
realize that i'm not from the bitcoin space i just had to bring some of that ruthlessness back

560
00:41:19,744 --> 00:41:24,363
and understand that this is how the game works in the bitcoin space everyone wants to hug and you

561
00:41:24,363 --> 00:41:28,264
know see how everything is going and basically make everyone feel good about their decisions

562
00:41:28,264 --> 00:41:35,204
that's not my world if you got into the right thing and then you it up well that's what happened

563
00:41:35,204 --> 00:41:40,424
You screwed it up. And it's not for me to sit there and feel any emotion about what you did,

564
00:41:40,484 --> 00:41:44,284
because in my world, the world that I come up from, the world that I grew up in,

565
00:41:44,764 --> 00:41:49,924
we'd be celebrating the fact that you screwed up. Very well said. Very unique perspective as well,

566
00:41:49,964 --> 00:41:54,484
coming from the real estate industry. I want to ask you, speaking of market makers playing their

567
00:41:54,484 --> 00:41:59,164
tricks, IBIT playing their tricks, or BlackRock playing their tricks, rather, as you kind of

568
00:41:59,164 --> 00:42:03,744
alluded to over the last couple of years, Bitcoin has been severely underperforming since October

569
00:42:03,744 --> 00:42:08,704
10th. Something seems to have happened. People are speculating that Wintermute or other market

570
00:42:08,704 --> 00:42:12,704
makers got blown up and they've been turned into systematic sellers. What's your take on what

571
00:42:12,704 --> 00:42:18,404
happened on October 10th, if any? And obviously, this doesn't matter in the long term view of

572
00:42:18,404 --> 00:42:22,664
things. But do you have any sense of what may have happened on October 10th? Obviously, we know the

573
00:42:22,664 --> 00:42:27,244
fallout of it. Retail is totally in the doldrums. They've given up. They're extremely upset. A lot

574
00:42:27,244 --> 00:42:31,804
of people who were bullish are now flipping bearish. What do you think happened? Yeah,

575
00:42:31,804 --> 00:42:37,844
Yeah, so look, retail was already in the doldrums because there was no retail hype going on into October 10th.

576
00:42:37,924 --> 00:42:39,004
There was a lot of leverage.

577
00:42:39,144 --> 00:42:39,904
There was a lot of trading.

578
00:42:40,044 --> 00:42:41,524
There was a lot of speculation going on.

579
00:42:41,944 --> 00:42:47,424
And then finally since that day, because there was this idea of a four-year cycle and whatever else,

580
00:42:47,544 --> 00:42:53,124
and Plan B's idea that you sell 18 months after the halving, blah, blah, blah, it just lined up to October.

581
00:42:53,664 --> 00:42:59,084
And so a lot of the people that were left over kind of got their soul sucked out of them as well.

582
00:42:59,084 --> 00:43:02,044
And so, you know, that's been fun to watch.

583
00:43:02,144 --> 00:43:04,224
As far as what actually happened, I don't know.

584
00:43:04,444 --> 00:43:13,844
But from what I've read and from what I've spoken to people about, it looks like that there was a protocol error on some exchange somewhere around the world.

585
00:43:14,024 --> 00:43:15,124
Apparently, it was Binance.

586
00:43:15,224 --> 00:43:15,784
I don't know.

587
00:43:16,244 --> 00:43:19,644
And that has been causing liquidity issues since then.

588
00:43:19,844 --> 00:43:25,284
I think that should be done by now, at least from, you know, the people that I listen to and I've spoken to.

589
00:43:25,284 --> 00:43:27,524
Like they tell me that should be done by now.

590
00:43:27,624 --> 00:43:32,624
And now we're waiting for incoming purchases and incoming liquidity, which, by the way, we're getting.

591
00:43:32,744 --> 00:43:35,004
We're getting long-term holders absorb this.

592
00:43:35,204 --> 00:43:39,904
This is no longer an enthusiastic price action.

593
00:43:40,464 --> 00:43:42,404
This goes back to before October 10th.

594
00:43:42,424 --> 00:43:43,124
Here's what was going on.

595
00:43:43,164 --> 00:43:45,224
This is how you know there's a smart buyer in the space.

596
00:43:45,804 --> 00:43:54,144
Before October 10th, what was happening was people would dump their Bitcoin and Bitcoin would basically go down a percent or go down 3%, right?

597
00:43:54,144 --> 00:44:00,024
Galaxy Digital sold 80,000 coins over a few days, and the price dipped by 3%.

598
00:44:00,024 --> 00:44:05,764
What that tells you is that there is smart capital absorbing that Bitcoin.

599
00:44:06,044 --> 00:44:07,764
This is an absorption game.

600
00:44:08,104 --> 00:44:13,104
This is no longer an enthusiasm chasing game, which is what retail was doing, which is why

601
00:44:13,104 --> 00:44:15,404
this cycle feels completely different to every other cycle.

602
00:44:15,764 --> 00:44:16,924
Then October 10th happened.

603
00:44:17,004 --> 00:44:19,044
And of course, those guys are going to have algorithms.

604
00:44:19,304 --> 00:44:24,124
They're going to have things in place to go, shit, the Delta is running.

605
00:44:24,144 --> 00:44:28,724
really accelerating right now to the millisecond so you know what i'm going to do i'm going to pull

606
00:44:28,724 --> 00:44:34,124
all my buy orders and just see what happens here so then we had that flush down happen and then

607
00:44:34,124 --> 00:44:37,924
there was you know a period of accumulation distribution whatever you want to call it so

608
00:44:37,924 --> 00:44:43,584
now what we're seeing is again you see greenland situation happen you see the new tariffs come out

609
00:44:43,584 --> 00:44:49,184
you see all this stuff and bitcoin drops two percent three percent right so i think we're back

610
00:44:49,184 --> 00:44:52,284
to the process of absorption.

611
00:44:53,024 --> 00:44:55,844
And remember, smart capital, institutional capital

612
00:44:55,844 --> 00:44:57,784
does not chase an asset to the upside.

613
00:44:58,304 --> 00:45:01,464
They put limit buy orders with a,

614
00:45:01,784 --> 00:45:05,364
they put trailing limit buy orders as new highs happen.

615
00:45:05,844 --> 00:45:07,204
And that's what's going on here.

616
00:45:07,364 --> 00:45:08,524
That's how they're accumulating.

617
00:45:09,104 --> 00:45:10,644
Retail has not been in this space

618
00:45:10,644 --> 00:45:12,404
and that's why we haven't seen a blow off top.

619
00:45:12,744 --> 00:45:14,024
Blow off tops are not controlled

620
00:45:14,024 --> 00:45:15,684
and not created by institutions.

621
00:45:15,684 --> 00:45:16,984
They're created by retail.

622
00:45:16,984 --> 00:45:18,964
At some point, you will see that happen.

623
00:45:19,184 --> 00:45:20,704
but it's just not happened yet.

624
00:45:21,704 --> 00:45:22,144
Beautiful.

625
00:45:22,464 --> 00:45:24,084
So speaking of the four-year cycle,

626
00:45:24,164 --> 00:45:25,044
you brought it up briefly.

627
00:45:25,284 --> 00:45:28,864
It seems to me that that was the biggest culprit here, right?

628
00:45:28,864 --> 00:45:31,424
It became this sort of self-reinforcing feedback loop

629
00:45:31,424 --> 00:45:33,444
where people believed that selling 18 months

630
00:45:33,444 --> 00:45:34,883
after the halving is what you had to do.

631
00:45:35,364 --> 00:45:37,383
October rolled around,

632
00:45:37,464 --> 00:45:38,304
and then all of a sudden, you know,

633
00:45:38,344 --> 00:45:39,544
people sort of reflexively sold.

634
00:45:39,604 --> 00:45:41,544
It became this self-fulfilling prophecy almost.

635
00:45:41,744 --> 00:45:44,464
Is your contention that now that institutions are in the game,

636
00:45:44,784 --> 00:45:46,044
we didn't have a blow off top,

637
00:45:46,124 --> 00:45:47,804
do you believe the four-year cycle is dead?

638
00:45:47,864 --> 00:45:49,064
And if it's not dead yet,

639
00:45:49,064 --> 00:45:53,224
What would have to be done in order to invalidate this idea of a four-year cycle in your mind?

640
00:45:53,904 --> 00:45:57,844
I've been saying the four-year cycle is dead since we made a new all-time high before the halving, right?

641
00:45:57,944 --> 00:46:01,184
So it's like, to me, the four-year cycle is absolutely dead.

642
00:46:01,284 --> 00:46:02,064
It's always been dead.

643
00:46:02,104 --> 00:46:09,304
But here's the final evidence of what needs to happen as far as I'm concerned to get everyone to understand that this thing is finally dead.

644
00:46:09,304 --> 00:46:21,204
I think at this point, we need to make a new all-time high before we hit the 200-week moving average, which is typically where the price returns back down to after a top.

645
00:46:21,824 --> 00:46:24,644
If we do that, that should be enough confirmation.

646
00:46:24,784 --> 00:46:27,864
And of course, it won't be because retail are morons, right?

647
00:46:27,904 --> 00:46:30,864
So, of course, they'll keep parroting the idea that four-year cycles still exist.

648
00:46:30,984 --> 00:46:31,704
It's just extended.

649
00:46:31,864 --> 00:46:34,364
It's this, that, and the other, whatever they want to say.

650
00:46:34,724 --> 00:46:38,604
But smart money will realize that a four-year cycle narrative is completely dead.

651
00:46:38,604 --> 00:46:46,424
And as soon as we make a new all-time high, we're going into explosive price discovery because now everyone starts chasing it because what the hell just happened?

652
00:46:46,864 --> 00:46:49,024
So that's what I think we're waiting for.

653
00:46:49,084 --> 00:46:55,944
I think we're waiting for a new all-time high and a blow-off top before we touch the 200-week moving average before the next halving.

654
00:46:57,044 --> 00:46:57,484
Beautiful.

655
00:46:58,044 --> 00:47:01,424
Over the course of the next year, obviously, we sit here in January.

656
00:47:01,564 --> 00:47:05,224
This episode is either going to go live today or tomorrow in late January.

657
00:47:05,664 --> 00:47:07,864
What's on your mind as we move into 2026?

658
00:47:07,864 --> 00:47:09,064
We've talked about BlackRock.

659
00:47:09,184 --> 00:47:10,704
We've talked about nation state adoption.

660
00:47:11,084 --> 00:47:14,044
What are the biggest developments for Bitcoin on your mind as we move into the year?

661
00:47:14,104 --> 00:47:16,244
There are a couple of things moving in D.C. right now.

662
00:47:16,644 --> 00:47:19,044
Obviously, the Clarity Act is one of them.

663
00:47:19,204 --> 00:47:20,164
That's been shot down.

664
00:47:20,264 --> 00:47:21,584
Brian Armstrong pulled a support.

665
00:47:22,044 --> 00:47:25,524
It doesn't seem like that impacted Bitcoin's price all too much.

666
00:47:25,924 --> 00:47:30,764
As we move forward through the year, what are the things that you have your eye on as far as developments for Bitcoin are concerned?

667
00:47:31,304 --> 00:47:36,984
The only thing I'm looking at is if BlackRock still has full support behind Bitcoin or not.

668
00:47:36,984 --> 00:47:39,204
And people look at that and go, oh, that's pretty simplistic.

669
00:47:39,584 --> 00:47:42,524
You're not looking for anything else new and exciting coming out for Bitcoin.

670
00:47:42,844 --> 00:47:45,484
There is nothing new and exciting coming out for Bitcoin.

671
00:47:46,064 --> 00:47:47,424
BlackRock was the key.

672
00:47:47,624 --> 00:47:50,244
And I've been shouting that now for a couple of years.

673
00:47:50,544 --> 00:47:52,524
And people are never going to believe me.

674
00:47:52,584 --> 00:47:53,524
But that was the key.

675
00:47:54,044 --> 00:47:54,883
BlackRock happened.

676
00:47:55,204 --> 00:47:56,284
The politicians happened.

677
00:47:56,604 --> 00:47:57,724
The institutions happened.

678
00:47:58,024 --> 00:47:59,164
The credit markets happened.

679
00:47:59,584 --> 00:48:01,604
Everything happened after BlackRock.

680
00:48:02,084 --> 00:48:02,724
That's it.

681
00:48:02,824 --> 00:48:05,244
Now we sit back and we wait.

682
00:48:05,804 --> 00:48:06,324
Right?

683
00:48:06,324 --> 00:48:24,264
This is the stage that we're at. Now we let the architects of the entire financial world figure it out and assimilate around Bitcoin. This is the best part of the game. All you've got to do now is sit on your hands and not be a slave to your own activity bias.

684
00:48:24,264 --> 00:48:26,284
Is there going to be entertaining things that happen?

685
00:48:26,444 --> 00:48:26,664
Sure.

686
00:48:27,024 --> 00:48:32,064
I'm sure there's going to be a purchase by the US for its strategic Bitcoin reserve.

687
00:48:32,484 --> 00:48:32,804
Great.

688
00:48:33,164 --> 00:48:38,464
I'm sure Michael Saylor is going to get to a million Bitcoin for MSTR.

689
00:48:38,844 --> 00:48:39,404
Fantastic.

690
00:48:40,124 --> 00:48:43,084
I'm sure that there's going to be lending products on Bitcoin.

691
00:48:43,644 --> 00:48:44,164
Amazing.

692
00:48:44,424 --> 00:48:48,724
I'm sure that exchanges are going to blow up somewhere in the world and it's going to cause

693
00:48:48,724 --> 00:48:50,404
liquidity crisis for Bitcoin.

694
00:48:51,004 --> 00:48:51,684
Fantastic.

695
00:48:52,684 --> 00:48:53,824
All of it's irrelevant.

696
00:48:53,824 --> 00:48:57,124
The only thing that matters is BlackRock's in the game.

697
00:48:58,144 --> 00:49:07,184
Salespeople for asset managers are going to be on the phones to people convincing them to make an allocation into Bitcoin for their portfolio.

698
00:49:07,764 --> 00:49:11,804
Those salespeople are not like me where they're doing this shit for free for four years.

699
00:49:12,084 --> 00:49:16,464
They're getting paid commissions based on the value of people's assets under management.

700
00:49:16,464 --> 00:49:28,024
And as that Bitcoin portion starts accelerating, they're going to be more and more encouraged to allocate more to Bitcoin from their clients' portfolios.

701
00:49:28,364 --> 00:49:30,004
And that flywheel is just going to continue.

702
00:49:30,424 --> 00:49:32,164
And then, of course, we've got more liquidity coming.

703
00:49:32,524 --> 00:49:36,164
And, of course, we've got the business cycle to start in the U.S.

704
00:49:36,224 --> 00:49:38,364
We've got confidence to happen, etc.

705
00:49:38,484 --> 00:49:41,404
All these things are going to happen, but none of it's exciting anymore.

706
00:49:41,724 --> 00:49:42,624
It's all boring.

707
00:49:42,944 --> 00:49:45,504
Either you own enough for the asset or you don't.

708
00:49:45,504 --> 00:49:52,164
It's as simple as that. And the game change June 15th, 2023, which is the ETF application date for BlackRock.

709
00:49:52,224 --> 00:49:58,744
And I told everyone that now you're going to have to sit here and either celebrate the fact that you got enough Bitcoin or cry about it.

710
00:49:59,744 --> 00:50:04,344
Beautiful. Very well said. Yeah, that 4% recommendation coming out of B of A is a game changer.

711
00:50:04,564 --> 00:50:11,444
Right. And so until a crisis hits, chances are the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is a slow and steady grind higher or grind sideways.

712
00:50:11,624 --> 00:50:15,264
But as we know, when liquidity crises hit, Bitcoin is the fastest mover.

713
00:50:15,504 --> 00:50:19,704
The last thing I want to ask you about here, you have a very, very simple message.

714
00:50:19,864 --> 00:50:25,124
In that message, you have pinned in your Twitter profile, buy Bitcoin, shut up, get fabulously wealthy.

715
00:50:25,244 --> 00:50:31,504
I left out two words in that second point just to make sure that we can stay monetized and don't get pulled off of YouTube.

716
00:50:31,824 --> 00:50:34,344
But what's the power of just having one simple message?

717
00:50:34,344 --> 00:50:41,584
We've talked about why most people will screw it up, why most people won't make it, and why that's just a natural sort of human behavior.

718
00:50:41,584 --> 00:50:49,424
But why does the repetition of that one simple message beat the novelty of like recycling some new message to give to your audience every couple of months?

719
00:50:50,224 --> 00:50:53,104
Well, I think, you know, for me, it's the same.

720
00:50:53,264 --> 00:50:53,744
It's the same.

721
00:50:53,844 --> 00:50:59,864
By the way, you can replace the step one to buy Bitcoin with any asset in the ever history of humankind.

722
00:51:00,144 --> 00:51:01,264
And it would be right.

723
00:51:01,484 --> 00:51:01,684
Right.

724
00:51:01,764 --> 00:51:04,344
Like at some point it was by gold.

725
00:51:04,784 --> 00:51:05,004
Right.

726
00:51:05,124 --> 00:51:07,204
At some point it was by real estate.

727
00:51:07,424 --> 00:51:09,084
Like at some point it was by land.

728
00:51:09,444 --> 00:51:09,924
Right.

729
00:51:09,924 --> 00:51:17,664
Like when New York was being made, the rule was buy land, STFU, get fabulously wealthy, right?

730
00:51:17,744 --> 00:51:20,484
Like, so there was, it's the same rule.

731
00:51:20,884 --> 00:51:23,544
Nothing's changed except now it's just Bitcoin.

732
00:51:23,704 --> 00:51:25,624
So for me, I want consistency.

733
00:51:25,844 --> 00:51:27,584
I want to be known for exactly one thing.

734
00:51:27,724 --> 00:51:32,924
And then, you know, one of the things that allows me to do this for free for four years,

735
00:51:33,464 --> 00:51:36,184
I don't even have YouTube monetization turned on.

736
00:51:36,184 --> 00:51:41,824
The only thing that allows me to do this for free is because one day I know that I'll be right.

737
00:51:42,364 --> 00:51:45,384
And that's my pale, that I was right.

738
00:51:45,624 --> 00:51:49,984
And that's all I care about, being right.

739
00:51:50,164 --> 00:51:52,764
And either you're going to be right with me because you listened.

740
00:51:53,004 --> 00:51:59,044
And so since I started buying Bitcoin and telling people about it, I'm up, you know, roughly 20x, right?

741
00:51:59,144 --> 00:52:01,084
And at some point it would be 100x.

742
00:52:01,264 --> 00:52:03,624
And at some point it would be 150x.

743
00:52:03,624 --> 00:52:06,824
or you'll be sitting there going,

744
00:52:06,904 --> 00:52:07,924
I wish I would have listened.

745
00:52:08,244 --> 00:52:10,824
And either one for me will be pleasurable.

746
00:52:11,724 --> 00:52:11,944
Excellent.

747
00:52:12,304 --> 00:52:13,584
So is that how you want to be remembered?

748
00:52:14,264 --> 00:52:14,644
Being right?

749
00:52:15,784 --> 00:52:16,524
Yeah, 100%.

750
00:52:16,524 --> 00:52:17,624
I want to be right.

751
00:52:17,824 --> 00:52:18,784
That's it for me.

752
00:52:18,864 --> 00:52:19,764
That's my currency.

753
00:52:20,084 --> 00:52:21,764
That's what I want to be known for.

754
00:52:22,064 --> 00:52:23,744
We will be right.

755
00:52:23,804 --> 00:52:24,744
I've already been right.

756
00:52:25,444 --> 00:52:25,584
Right?

757
00:52:25,684 --> 00:52:28,184
Started buying Bitcoin at roughly $5,000 a coin.

758
00:52:28,624 --> 00:52:29,664
It's been the single best.

759
00:52:29,904 --> 00:52:31,164
So you know what I figured out the other day?

760
00:52:31,164 --> 00:52:31,984
I was calculating it

761
00:52:31,984 --> 00:52:34,304
Because all these gold and silver, I used to be in the gold and silver space, right?

762
00:52:34,364 --> 00:52:35,764
So I called all my gold and silver friends.

763
00:52:35,824 --> 00:52:37,424
I was like, I'm selling all the gold and silver.

764
00:52:37,524 --> 00:52:38,044
I'm buying Bitcoin.

765
00:52:38,584 --> 00:52:40,004
And they all cussed me out at the time.

766
00:52:41,204 --> 00:52:45,684
And I had dinner with Peter Schiff, actually, like a month and a half, two months ago.

767
00:52:46,484 --> 00:52:50,804
And he was, like, upset that I'd sold my gold at 2,000 because I'd missed out on a 2x.

768
00:52:51,164 --> 00:52:54,864
And I told him, Peter, like, I've 20x'd.

769
00:52:55,904 --> 00:53:01,684
Like, if you had taken silver, right?

770
00:53:01,684 --> 00:53:11,084
the bottom of 2020 sold all of your silver and put it into bitcoin silver today would have to

771
00:53:11,084 --> 00:53:19,304
reach 300 and dollars an ounce to match the return that i already have with bitcoin right so from my

772
00:53:19,304 --> 00:53:25,024
perspective like all of these people that are celebrating all this it's it's it's utterly crazy

773
00:53:25,024 --> 00:53:30,424
to me bitcoin is the game blackrock is telling you it's the game the u.s government is telling

774
00:53:30,424 --> 00:53:34,624
you it's the game the c-suite of the u.s government is telling you it's the game everyone is telling

775
00:53:34,624 --> 00:53:41,464
you it's the game and you're sitting here going but maybe it's gold you're a moron beautiful it

776
00:53:41,464 --> 00:53:46,084
certainly seems to be the game it seems extremely undervalued relative to everything else right now

777
00:53:46,084 --> 00:53:50,404
viewers of this show and longtime fans of british huddle know exactly what to do during times like

778
00:53:50,404 --> 00:53:54,664
these british thank you so much for coming on the show man before we part ways i know a lot of people

779
00:53:54,664 --> 00:53:58,664
who are watching this already follow you but for those that may not be working they find more of

780
00:53:58,664 --> 00:54:02,084
work and listen to more of these great Bitcoin rants that you've got.

781
00:54:02,784 --> 00:54:06,844
I'm on, firstly, thanks for having me. I appreciate it. I'm on two places. That's

782
00:54:06,844 --> 00:54:08,944
YouTube and X. That's it. Nowhere else.

783
00:54:09,844 --> 00:54:13,664
Fantastic. And I'll link both of those in the show notes in the video description. So wherever

784
00:54:13,664 --> 00:54:17,044
you're watching this, you'll be able to find them. British, thanks again for coming on. Appreciate it.

785
00:54:17,604 --> 00:54:18,384
My pleasure. Thanks.