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Don't stop even for the right thing

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Doesn't matter what I say

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My whole world walked by that river.

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Woo! Here we go. Welcome back. What a day. What a day. I think I've been on my computer

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all freaking day and we are back. The chat is cooking. We got some people here.

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The crew is live. Let's turn my screen off. There we go. The team's back. All right, here we go.

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welcome back. We got True North episode 27. We've got a very dense agenda. We are going to hit this

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hard. This is the investment grade Bitcoin podcast. We're talking about all things Bitcoin related

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equities and diving into data and details, state of the market, what's going on with leverage,

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what's going on at Twitter, what's going on in the news. And we're going to try to get through

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a ton of information in a short amount of time. So the agenda today, we're going to talk about

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BTC price discovery. Awesome. We're in price discovery. Obviously, MetaPlanet limit up. That

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is the biggest topic of the day. It's the biggest topic of the week. It's taken over all of Twitter.

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This seems like GME 2.0. I get the same little butterflies in my stomach watching all of this

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stuff happen. So pretty crazy there. We'll spend some time. We'll dive into it. We'll work around

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what we know, some of the data, and just kind of play with it a little bit.

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We'll get into a market update. We'll talk about strategy, talk about leverage, how that looks,

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what the price action, the poor price action today relative to the rest of the Bitcoin trading

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equities. There's a lot of poor sentiment out there. And we'll talk about it. We'll steel man

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it. And we'll try to work our way through it and see where we could be wrong. I think this is a

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long-term hold but we'll get into it we'll dive we'll dive into the topics and the details then

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we're going to talk about the btc treasury revolution there there's the finance is literally

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being rewritten as we know it we're seeing it in real time we're seeing new metrics come to the

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scene we're seeing everybody digest these new metrics trying to conceptualize them wrap their

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heads around them um you know the you can get a master's in science of bitcoin uh just by

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by listening to all of the content that's on X these days.

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We'll talk about MSTR Q2 earnings and the S&P 500 scale,

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what that looks like on the horizon.

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Strike and Strife, we'll do a quick primer.

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And then I've got some analysis

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on strike versus real estate and fixed income.

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And I think a lot of people that have fixed income portfolios,

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these old boomers are,

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apologies to the boomers that may be watching this.

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they are reconsidering the dynamics of their portfolio, the relativity of, you know, all of the other things that they're holding and how they fit into a portfolio.

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So again, as we've talked in episodes past, this is the evolution of a Bitcoin portfolio.

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You can now effectively have a Bitcoin portfolio with risk-adjusted returns and different securities

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that are Bitcoin correlated on all aspects of the risk spectrum, and they're only getting

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bigger and more complex.

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So with that, Bitcoin, let's see, where are we at?

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share the screen. Bitcoin. Oh, we got an ad here. Bitcoin at 109,928. We are the fifth. This is the

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fifth largest asset by market cap. I think this is a topic that just so many people are unaware of.

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And this is my foray into orange billing people. As I mentioned that Bitcoin is the fifth largest

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asset on the planet. It is a $2.18 trillion asset that is completely decentralized, right?

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You look at the scale of some of these other assets like Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Apple,

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they've got thousands and thousands of employees. And here at number five, you've got a decentralized

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computer protocol that is the fifth largest asset on the planet, soon to be number one

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uh in in short order so i'll start there i'll pass it over you guys how are you guys feeling

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right there's a lot of a lot of things going on i've been at my computer all day i couldn't sleep

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last night you know it's uh it's feeling a lot like uh somebody says i need a sip of bourbon

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hold on real quick i've got my yamazaki shout out japan and uh that's what we're cooking with today

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i couldn't feel better i see what you mean i like that i put in my two weeks notice in december

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in january and february i was like should i check to see if my job has still been you know if i've

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been replaced is my position still open like i might have to go back to work here so everything

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everything's right with the world now i'm good to go good to go a lot of noise i mean anything that

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anything bitcoin correlated is up today with the exception of microstrategy was pretty trash

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uh yeah how do you guys feel about it what's what's cooking there i i don't think that means

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anything necessarily negative um no this is something we've talked about right just because

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strategies having a down day and other equity leverage bitcoin equities are up doesn't mean

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that the trade is broken or the investment thesis is broken there's there's too much that goes into

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the price activity that we're seeing um there could be a myriad of reasons as to why that is

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um i think that bitcoin being up bodes very very well for our collective future and bodes well for

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strategies future so i do think people need to take a moment to understand where we're at i mean

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Bitcoin is what, 109, 110.

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Strategy is over 400 bucks,

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which in my mind tells me is over 4,000

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because that's how I see it.

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Because I've been in since before the 10 for one.

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So I think we are in a tremendous place.

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We're up over 100% since last year.

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I think things are good.

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We just have a lot of new narratives

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that are the new shiny thing,

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catching a lot of attention.

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And I think people may be getting to,

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they're getting dragged along in that narrative,

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which is fine.

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but you know and that 400 price that you mentioned i mean strategy blew up a little early right so

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november hit a little bit before bitcoin's first all-time high of like that i think it was more

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like december 13th december 17th something like around those that area and the strategy was

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trading at 400 then so i think that blow off top was a little bit misleading and i think gives people

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that really unjustified expectation

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that every single Bitcoin pump

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should be a blow off top.

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I don't think that's reasonable.

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It isn't.

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And also we had a lot of dynamics

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that were working as significant tailwinds

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that were working to our favor, right?

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Liquidity was high at the end of Q4.

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We had high sentiments.

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We had a lot of excitement around in the market.

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I think that blow off top, to your point,

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made people have a lot of unrealistic expectations.

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but I think right now you have a mixture of people where expectations are getting tempered

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but at the same time you have people where expectations are being dashed and what we're

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seeing in the market right now is that individuals whose expectations are being dashed are perhaps

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having some of the loudest voices while individuals that have tempered expectations or more realistic

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expectations are fine. They're just not being as vocal about it. So you know the loudest

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the loudest commentary often gets the most traction.

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The most negative commentary often gets the most traction.

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And I think a lot of that is, you know,

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prevailing the sentiment that we see on online and in the markets right now.

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Yeah. And there's a lot of one of the people of FOMOing into the 10 eighties

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in November too, like implied vol was,

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was jacked through the roof because, you know,

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there was so much euphoria and the options,

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everybody's just rolling up and up and up. And you know, that's gonna,

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that's gonna play havoc with the, with the price being stoked by the,

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the options market as well. I think that's a really interesting point. I mean, implied vol is at

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almost the zero percentile. So it's quite low in MSTR. What do you mean by zero percentile?

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Just to explain that to everybody. Yeah. Yeah. Zero percentile means of all the trading days

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in MSTR's history, or since they've adopted a Bitcoin strategy, typically the window is the

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past year. So I think for the sake of zero percentile that I'm using, it's the past year.

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So of all those trading days, what is the implied volatility or the future expected volatility of MSTR priced into a 30 day option?

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The call and put should be about the same at the money.

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So forward looking.

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And yeah, it's lower than it's ever been.

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So people are expecting very low volatility or people aren't willing to pay for the volatility.

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And what that means is people are expecting the stock to kind of trade within a range or they aren't.

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the future expectations of volatility are very low.

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Future expectations, yes.

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So when IV is high, there's a lot of energy in the call or put side of the trade that are expecting the stock to move quickly in any one direction.

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And that could be a function of, you know, traders pushing energy into one side of the trade.

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And now that there's opportunity cost of capital for some of these really fast moving Bitcoin treasury companies, that opportunity cost of capital goes from tail options in MSTR and shifts over to where that volatility is.

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These are vol junkies that are moving in any direction to the place where they can capture that volatility.

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Yeah. And I think it's a new beast for a lot of people considering in the fall, we saw 25%

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leverage to equity ratio via converts. Now we're looking, was it higher? 30%?

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Oh, no, no. Keep going. Keep going.

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Oh, sorry. Sorry. Whereas now we're seeing that leverage coming in the form of preferreds,

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right? The majority of the leverage right now, or it's about one third of the leverage is preferred

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stock as opposed to converts. And the entirety of the leverage is about 16% of the equity as

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opposed to in the fall when it was closer to 25%, 30%. And so that's dampening volatility. And I

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think people don't know what to make of the preferred debt. And I'm still trying to make

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up my mind whether or not it's going to lead to the same sort of volatility that convertible debt

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has led to in the past. Right. We're going to take a time out here real quick. Hold on.

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Ladies and gentlemen, what you're about to hear may be amazing, but it is not financial advice.

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It's for informational and educational purposes only.

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Jeff, back to you.

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Thanks, Tim.

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All right.

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We've got Tim, not financial advice.

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That's out of the way.

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We're cleared.

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We're good to go.

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I'm learning how to use all of this new tech.

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I'm this old washed up reinsurance broker that's figuring out how to do media stuff.

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So we are back.

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It was the best cameo ever.

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It's a good cameo.

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He's all tied up.

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He's in his office.

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Yes.

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People are constantly asking me, you know, when IV, like when IV go up, that's, that's

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all the, what the options junkies want to know.

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And I think it's pretty simple.

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Like, um, the, the IV is determined by what people are willing to pay for the calls.

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Right.

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So there's, it's either that people are not willing to pay that much for the calls right

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now or the sellers are not requiring that much because they're not really afraid of

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god candles and getting wrecked and i think it's just a direct result of the you know we're at the

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low end of the the leverage range that you know if we were levered up with debt more i think that

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the the call buyers would be like oh okay if we're levered then this is a more levered play

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like an MSTU or an MSTX.

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So I'll pay more for those calls.

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And I think as soon as we get some convertible bonds,

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as soon as the preferreds market starts to develop

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and we really start hammering the ATM on the preferreds

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and the debts comes up, I think IV returns.

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I think it's pretty much that simple.

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There's also been just so much pressure

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pulling this thing down, right?

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Like you look at the assets under management of Misty

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and watch how that's grown over the last three months.

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It's gone from 2 billion in AUM to 4 billion of AUM of weekly call sellers.

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That's dampening volatility, right?

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That is shorting the stock every week to monetize that volatility.

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And you're seeing other products go that direction as well.

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On top of ATM pressure, which has scared away some of the options traders because of the more liquidity in the market.

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So it's super difficult to quantify an option position, right?

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Yeah, I think that's a good point.

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Well, I think you will grossly underestimate the impact of how the options market plays into this whole price dynamic that we're seeing with the volatility.

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but um you know there are a lot of individuals that and guys correct me if i'm wrong that i'm

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seeing on social media that are essentially in strategy just for the options right so i and i

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think a lot of them are also creating this narrative that the that the trade is breaking

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down that the investment thesis is breaking down that are being hypercritical about it

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because to jeff's point they're so to jeff and so leo's point they're looking for a particular

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outcome in the options they're not getting it and they're and in my view they're just getting pissed

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off and they're either exiting the trade or creating a lot of noise around the trade um so

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i think people need to come into an understanding of are they going to be a trader or are they an

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investor if you're an investor in strategy i think you need an entirely different view of this

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opportunity versus if you're a guy trading options we're looking to trade this stock on a day-to-day

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week to week basis yeah it's it's interesting i mean we're talking about mstr on the investment

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grade bitcoin podcast and one of the components that i think a majority of the market is kind of

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failing to grasp or recognize i think at the moment and this is this is me saying i i am long

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on everything that's touching the bitcoin ecosystem right now i'm just bullish on everything as it

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goes into price discovery. I'm going to start with that. But I think risk is being miscalculated

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and risk adjusted yield is also important to think. If you're creating an optimized portfolio for

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risk adjusted returns, I think you need to, it's critical to think about what is the risk of some

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of these equities downside upside what the return what the infrastructure what the architecture all that stuff so it might be time to get into meta planet because i know that what everybody wants to hear about and talk about and maybe we just jump into like a little bit of lay of the land what going on

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at least some of the data that i'm aware of and that i know and then we'll see what you guys want

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to talk about that sounds great joe sound good okay so i'm going to pop over here and this is

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Japan's bond market. So this is the background of what's going on in Japan. So this says Japan's

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bond market is breaking. The 30-year is at 3.13%. The 40-year, they have a 40-year bond,

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which the US doesn't have, which is interesting, is hitting all-time highs. So you've got pressure

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from the bond market. So when the bond prices are going up or when the yields are going up,

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bond prices are crashing. They're going the opposite direction. So if you have a bond

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portfolio in Japan and you're watching this happening, you're fleeing to stocks. You're

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fleeing to equities because your bond portfolio is just getting totally hammered from interest

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rates going up. So we're seeing some pressure, significant pressure in Japan. And I think they

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had a couple of failed, what is this? A couple of failed treasury auctions. So nobody wanted to buy

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the debt, which is a signal that's a tricky place to be. If you're an investor in Japan and you

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invest in bonds, you're looking for alternative places to go. And I think this is part of the

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whole Japan carry trade circumstance, but that's a little bit beyond me and how this all kind of

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plays together. The other thing that's going on in Japan. So there's these accounts. They're

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basically like IRAs in Japan. They're called NISA accounts. And these are effectively retirement

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accounts. So individuals can invest up to 1.2 million yen, 80,000 per year in these NISA accounts.

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And these are exempt from Japan's 20% capital gains tax, which is an important statistic because

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in Japan, any gains from crypto are taxed at the ordinary income tax rate, even if you've held them

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for longer than a year. So at the highest tax bracket, you could have a 55% tax on holding

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Bitcoin. So how do you get this exposure? What's the most efficient way to get this exposure?

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It's in a NISA account. It's in a Japanese retirement account because of the capital gains

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treatment. Additionally, there's no ETF in Japan. There's no Bitcoin ETF specifically in Japan. So

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they've got the benefit of no access to an ETF. I think investors in Japan can buy MSTR,

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but maybe not in NISA accounts. I think you've got to be like in Japanese equities.

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So you've got pressure that's coming in the door trying to get this Bitcoin exposure

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with the backdrop that you've got, you know, bond market is ripping and people are looking for

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safe havens. So on top of that, you've got, so MetaPlanet is the most shorted stock in Japan at

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the moment, and they are betting against MetaPlanet stock. This is very similar to what we saw

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with GameStop. However, the difference here is MetaPlanet is holding, and all of these stocks

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that these hedge funds are shorting, they're holding Bitcoin, which is the strongest asset

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on the planet about to go into price discovery and rip to the upside in terms of that you can't

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turn the buy button off here. It's almost the complete opposite. You can't stop Bitcoin. It's

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hard to break the sentiment because people are just piling in. So it's a unique framework here

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that you've got. This is a shorted stock in Japan. Additionally, with what's going on with

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of MetaPlanet. I think one of the fastest growing Bitcoin treasuries, 12 months ago, they had a

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hotel and some cash. And then it started with 300 Bitcoin, then 1,000 Bitcoin, 2,000 Bitcoin. And

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now we're up at nearly 7,000 Bitcoin as of last week. I'm sure they'll have 8,000 Bitcoin next

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week, growing incredibly fast. And one of the ways they're doing it is that they are selling

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moving strike warrants. And moving strike warrants is effectively the Japanese version of the ATM.

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It happens on the next day. It's a little bit of a tricky, like complex structure. It's a bit

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difficult to understand, but just think of it as the ATM. So if you hear moving strike warrant,

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that's just an ATM. They only sell shares when the stock is moving on up days. So they're not

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selling on down days, which avoids that dilution scenario when the stock is moving down. Additionally,

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like within the Japanese market, I'm pretty sure you can't short the stock on down days either. I

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think you can only short the stock on days that it's going up. So you've got a lot of pressure

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that's coming in the door to buy the stock and the shorts are coming in when the price is going up,

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but there are no days where it's going down. Metaplanet isn't issuing any more shares when

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going down. So there's no additional relief from the hedge fund's perspective when they need to buy

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back the shares for the short position. So the architecture of the market is very unique in Japan.

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And I think this is the second or third largest equity exchange in the market as well. So this

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is a pretty big deal. It's a $6 trillion market. And what's going on here is pretty significant.

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Anybody else have anything to add? I've got a few more things, but I need a breather.

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Yeah, I think this is a perfect example of what Bitcoin is ushering in, which is within corporations is just competitive cooperation. Before it was like cutthroat.

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But now, and Sailor was kind of dragging and curb stomping Microsoft and the Mag7 at the World Conference.

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And, you know, it was kind of like putting everyone on notice.

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If you're not a Bitcoin treasury company, then strategy is the apex predator.

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And you're about to get eaten.

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But if you become a Bitcoin treasury company and now we're cooperating, you know, we're still separate companies. So to a certain extent, we're competing, but we're now cooperating. And now, you know, Sailor will tweet when you buy Bitcoin.

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and metaplanet is just a shining example of um you know instead of you know it strategy being

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the apex predator they're like the apex benefactor and you know you want to be the next company to do

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this you want to be inside the tent um and benefiting from uh you know from cooperation

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And it's just it's putting every non-Bitcoin treasury company on notice, I think.

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Yeah, because because this is a cooperative trade, like you just mentioned, and Bitcoin's underpinning all of this, it's everyone's incentive to drive the price up and to get as much interest in these cooperative plays as possible.

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And, you know, Jeff already touched on all of it with regards to the dynamics in the bond market in Japan and the fact that the short interest is so so steep.

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well, it's crushing actually for the shorts.

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The fact that the moving strike warrants interjected in a completely different dynamic.

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The Japanese and Asian markets, well, the Japanese market specifically doesn't have an easy vehicle to get Bitcoin exposure.

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There's just so many different dominoes that are lining up perfectly for this thing to just keep running

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and each one acting as a feedback loop into the next.

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And it's really interesting to watch happen in real time right now where you have different companies.

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You have the CEOs of different companies interacting with one another, retweeting one another, saying to buy Bitcoin, saying why it's a good investment opportunity.

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This is a whole different scenario that I think the market is just not used to.

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And to Soliel's point, when you look at those dynamics in a market that's traditionally very dog eat dog, and now you have the dogs forming a wolf pack instead, it creates a very, very different dynamic that I think traditional markets are going to have a hard time addressing to.

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cyber wolf pack cyber wolf pack yeah actually it really is because think about it sailors

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retweeting simon simon's retweeting sailor eric similar's retweeting sailors sailors

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reaching out similar they're all helping each other out it's wild to see happen in real time

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it's yeah it's it's totally crazy uh yeah i mean it's totally crazy it's hard it's hard to um

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i i'm imagining this one of the reasons i've been up all night on my computer all day is like i'm

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trying to conceptualize where this goes how like how to put some numbers behind it what's the

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framework you know who's involved uh all of these different things and um it kind of seems to me

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like there's going to be a strategy in every single jurisdiction on the planet in every equity market

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on the planet there's going to be a strategy and there's it's like a i don't want to say winner

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take all but it's winner take most if you're first in that jurisdiction and you are the vehicle to

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accumulate bitcoin it's pretty much winner take most and uh and that's kind of what we're seeing

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play out and it'll be really interesting to see how how this meta planet situation um or the the

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short side of the meta planet situation unwinds i'm sure simon and dylan i'm sure these guys are

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getting phone calls off the hook to do private placements on shares to clear the short positions.

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I'm sure of it because the only other way to do it is on the open market. And they could choose

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not to take those calls, et cetera, et cetera, but they should be capitalizing on those phone

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calls and those opportunities and they should rake them over the coals to do it. The alternative is

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I'm just trying to wrap my head around this is like,

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this is a huge liquidity event for the bank in Japan, right? Like if these,

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if, if these are Japanese based hedge funds that are shorting this,

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which I have no idea, I have no idea where these,

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where the capital is coming from that are shorting this.

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If they go down,

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they start liquidating everything else in their portfolio because of this

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position. And that could cause it, you know,

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domino effect on other things in the market,

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whether that be the Japanese market or the US market. And we're in this global economy now

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where energy and money moves incredibly fast and it's all algorithmic. So it's hard to imagine

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a scenario where this doesn't lead to significantly more money printing and more liquidity, which

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Bitcoin just continues to soak up, which rises the tide for all of these other Bitcoin treasury

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companies. I couldn't imagine a better time to be a Bitcoiner. This is the best time on the

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planet to be a Bitcoiner, holding Bitcoin equities, adding to your Bitcoin stack,

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having exposure. I can't believe that most of the world has no idea this is going on right now.

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Go walk down the street and talk to your neighbors. Nobody has any idea this stuff is going on.

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meanwhile we're running around yelling from the top of our lungs like running around the heads cut

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off because meta planet limited up and is up 100 on the u.s market uh and trading in all these

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different marketplaces and all this stuff nobody knows this is going on this is like such a such a

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quiet thing outside of the the fin twit sphere well to that point um there are a couple guys i

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know that work at hedge funds here in scottsdale and one actually works um closer in dallas um i

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text them and try to talk to them about meta planet and their exact words were what's meta planet

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yeah and they and they work for for i don't want to not i don't want to dox them but they work for

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rather large hedge funds in in the local area and it was kind of shocking that they didn't know what

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meta planet was but they knew about strategy which was somewhat weird but i think the dynamic we're

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seeing playing out here kind of back to the label's point about being a cooperative trade is there's

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a lot of synergy here and i think when bitcoin really starts to run because right now it's a

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little bit it's going it seems like we're going into price discovery with bitcoin right so if

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bitcoin really starts to run right now you would have you could have all these other equities that

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exist on top of bitcoin running simultaneously for an entirely different set of reasons

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how do people try to trade that you see bitcoin causing similar run you see bitcoin maybe causing

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meta planet and strategy and and um striving on whomever else to run all at the same time all for

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a different set of reasons it makes it almost impossible to anticipate because one equity is

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not going to react the same as another and you can very very easily get caught on the wrong side

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of a trade that's going to blow you up yeah i can't stop thinking about the wolfpack thing because

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jeff it is a wolfpack it is a cyber wolfpack you coined it but yeah it's a cyber wolfpack for sure

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So Jeff Booth likes to say that the future of Bitcoin, the future of the world looks like 8 billion people in service of 8 billion people.

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And what you just said about that makes me think of what does the world look like when there are thousands of corporations in service of thousands of corporations?

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Just this giant network of cooperation.

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my mind is getting a little bit twisted upside down imagining what that looks like because it

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doesn't look like anything that has ever existed i think here's what it looks like you've got to

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you've got to re redesign the entire like the world from the ground up and from a cooperative

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point of view and this is one of the things i always hated about like the traditional financial

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ecosystem or the traditional financial world is basically in order to win you had to be born in

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right family or you got to cheat and i hated it i always felt like icky right like what like

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right exactly you gotta yeah you gotta cheat um and and this is the this bitcoin ecosystem is so

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much more appealing to me because it's cooperative right like there there is a there is a rising tide

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here right like if as long as you have bitcoin as your core right like that there is that rising tide

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situation.

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So,

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to really think

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through what this looks like,

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I know there's some people that are saying that right now

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we could be in a bit of a frothy stage with regards

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to the Bitcoin treasuries and the Bitcoin

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inequities. I don't think we're there yet.

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What does a blow-off top in that kind of

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scenario really look like? Where's

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Bitcoin at in that kind of environment?

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Is a blow-off

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top caused by too many companies adopting

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a Bitcoin strategy too quickly?

355
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Or is it caused by Bitcoin

356
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getting progressively more upward buying pressure and then causing a blow off top with some of these

357
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companies and a bunch of companies piling in at the end causing some kind of a, I don't want to

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say a bubble but some kind of a retrace What does it lead to Is it a steady increase over the next several years or are we going to experience the same kind of boom and bust cycle i know what my theory is i just kind of i just kind of curious about what your theories are yeah i mean there not a ton of leverage in the system right now

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which is so funny because the traditional financial world will just say ah there's sailors taking on

360
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so much leverage it's like well their leverage ratio is actually at all-time lows and they're

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sitting on a 60 billion dollar balance sheet and they could crank it up um whereas last cycle in

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the peak their leverage ratios are like 50 at the peak and then it came down to you know 108 like

363
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they were they were over they had less assets than they did have debt on their balance sheet so

364
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everybody's just so much stronger right now um i mean meta planet is incredibly strong right now

365
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they've got a little bit of debt on their balance you don't want to say they're like leverage ratio

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is like five to eight or something like that but if you uh and if if you go watch the recent i

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i highly suggest if you're interested in what's going on with meta planet go watch the video with

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richard byworth and uh simon grovich um very good video and then also the what climb and the bull

369
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rider guys are doing like and peter duan go go watch that i think they've got some good content

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so it's really really fascinating what's going on over there well yeah so really quickly here's why

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i here's my thesis on and why i don't think we're going to see the same kind of blow off top we have

372
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have too many institutional players in the market right now, this isn't like all season.

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They're not incentivized to sell at the end of the market. They're not incentivized to rotate

374
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into Farcoin or some nonsense like that. They're incentivized to stay within the market, control

375
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the market, and drive the price higher. If you have corporate players that are adopting this

376
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strategy, what incentive do they have to sell Bitcoin? Why would they sell an asset that caused

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crazy appreciation and volatility on their stock just because they had to retrace? If anything,

378
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that would try to reproduce those circumstances again, wouldn't they? Versus selling. So what

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I'm getting at is where does the sell pressure come from? Because traditionally, I think we had

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boom-bust cycles because people were going from Bitcoin, they were making the gains there,

381
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they're going into altcoins, making gains there, then they were selling. And the liquidity wasn't

382
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coming back into the market. Now we have strategy similar, MetaPlanet, IBIT, FBTC,

383
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they're buying they're buying they're buying where does that equivalent sell pressure come from

384
00:33:10,392 --> 00:33:17,892
I think we I think we do see a retracement I don't think we see 80 I I think it's likely

385
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it's let me rephrase I think it's probable that the retracement that we see is far less

386
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significant than we've seen in previous cycles because the same dynamics and longer exists

387
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people still waiting for all season it's not happening I don't think it is yeah yeah I I

388
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think so either. And if you think about what's the solution here, right? If all these hedge funds are

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trapped and this triggers like a global economics collapse because of, you know, poor risk management

390
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by some traditional finance bros running hedge funds that are salty about Bitcoin going up,

391
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and it's actually not going to zero, then you have a print of epic proportions and everybody's got to

392
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figure out what to do right or you're caught your pants down or you're caught with your pants so so

393
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it's like okay if that's the case then uh you have every company known demand figuring out

394
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in in a in a very harsh reality that their dollar isn't worth much anymore because the this huge

395
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print of epic proportion and you've got to look for harder assets and things to things to hold

396
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and you know people will find this but it will take time and it could be painful for a lot of

397
00:34:34,552 --> 00:34:43,912
people and as we speak by the way bitcoin is running till 111k i love it 110 110. i love it

398
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yeah i think the boom and bust thing could happen if let's say instead of uh earnings reports being

399
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like okay let's see who has the most eps or you know who can move the most widgets if it comes

400
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down to like okay now it's an m nav measuring contest and i gotta you know i gotta have a

401
00:35:03,752 --> 00:35:09,412
bigger m nav than the next guy and the only way to get it is just lever up more and and then then

402
00:35:09,412 --> 00:35:14,052
the next company levers up more and then the next company levers up more somebody's gonna over

403
00:35:14,052 --> 00:35:21,512
leverage and get wrecked well then people are gonna be fomoing in with leverage and you know

404
00:35:21,512 --> 00:35:24,532
it can't go up straight up forever.

405
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And those corrections are going to cause some people to get crushed.

406
00:35:30,292 --> 00:35:31,812
The one pushback I'll give to that.

407
00:35:33,132 --> 00:35:34,272
Oh, go ahead.

408
00:35:35,572 --> 00:35:36,072
Yeah.

409
00:35:36,712 --> 00:35:38,372
It's because it's reflexive, right?

410
00:35:38,372 --> 00:35:42,732
We've seen the periods of time during which MSTR has been able to yield the

411
00:35:42,732 --> 00:35:47,572
highest percentage wise BTC yield and issue the most ATM is during those

412
00:35:47,572 --> 00:35:50,632
times when the multiple is the highest and the FOMO is the highest as well.

413
00:35:50,632 --> 00:35:54,652
And that's the same for most stocks, most of these Bitcoin leveraged equities.

414
00:35:54,892 --> 00:35:57,852
And so for that reason, I think it works up.

415
00:35:57,972 --> 00:36:02,492
And then when the pin drops and it starts moving back down, it's difficult to keep that yield higher.

416
00:36:02,692 --> 00:36:07,812
So that like that new metric that people are using out of that created days to cover MNAV.

417
00:36:09,372 --> 00:36:11,332
That's that's a really great metric.

418
00:36:12,052 --> 00:36:19,892
It's historically looking and it's historically facing and you're extrapolating out that continuation of that yield.

419
00:36:19,892 --> 00:36:23,312
it can diverge very quickly for any sort of company.

420
00:36:23,432 --> 00:36:26,852
If a company ramps up their multiple expands,

421
00:36:26,952 --> 00:36:27,952
they ramp up their purchase,

422
00:36:28,292 --> 00:36:30,872
the days to cover MNAB quickly converges

423
00:36:30,872 --> 00:36:32,212
to the other companies.

424
00:36:32,212 --> 00:36:34,612
Whereas if the multiple compresses

425
00:36:34,612 --> 00:36:36,192
for a different Bitcoin equity,

426
00:36:36,732 --> 00:36:39,372
then their days to cover their multiple

427
00:36:39,372 --> 00:36:41,472
slows down a lot.

428
00:36:41,552 --> 00:36:44,252
So there's a lot of independent variables

429
00:36:44,252 --> 00:36:45,492
for days to cover MNAB,

430
00:36:45,552 --> 00:36:46,452
but I think it's super interesting.

431
00:36:46,452 --> 00:36:47,412
I read this three times

432
00:36:47,412 --> 00:36:48,832
and I need the ADIQ version.

433
00:36:49,312 --> 00:36:49,852
Explain to me.

434
00:36:49,892 --> 00:36:54,212
Well, yeah, and the only pushback I'll give on that is that for me, just in my opinion,

435
00:36:54,392 --> 00:36:55,532
MNAV is primarily sentiment.

436
00:36:55,872 --> 00:36:57,392
You can't really manipulate.

437
00:36:57,532 --> 00:36:58,472
You can only react to it.

438
00:36:58,932 --> 00:37:00,192
So I don't know.

439
00:37:01,532 --> 00:37:02,732
It is possible.

440
00:37:03,692 --> 00:37:10,792
But again, just in my view, I think that you can't really manipulate sentiment so much.

441
00:37:10,872 --> 00:37:12,912
You can really only react to it effectively.

442
00:37:14,592 --> 00:37:19,612
And that, to your point, could create dynamics where we have a whipsaw effect.

443
00:37:19,892 --> 00:37:26,112
where people are not reacting effectively, where they're not being proactive in their strategy,

444
00:37:26,232 --> 00:37:32,412
they're being perhaps too reactive or not active enough. I don't know. There's all kinds of ways

445
00:37:32,412 --> 00:37:35,752
you can play it out. So not saying that you're wrong. I just want to throw a little wrinkle in

446
00:37:35,752 --> 00:37:44,152
there for consideration. Yeah. And I don't like MNAV as a goal. If I'm a company, I'm not going

447
00:37:44,152 --> 00:37:51,272
to be like, you know what, I'm going to try to get the MNAV to X, you know, 1.X. Because I think

448
00:37:51,272 --> 00:37:57,392
it's Goodhart's law that it says when a metric becomes a goal, it no longer serves to function

449
00:37:57,392 --> 00:38:04,832
as a valid metric. Because now you're kind of like distorting the free market inputs,

450
00:38:05,052 --> 00:38:10,012
because you're trying to game the MNAV into something. So if you just measure it, it's

451
00:38:10,012 --> 00:38:16,252
accurate but once you once you make it a target once you make it a goal you're kind of corrupting

452
00:38:16,252 --> 00:38:22,812
the metric itself so it's a moving goal post you're you're is what it is and that's why that's

453
00:38:22,812 --> 00:38:27,292
why i primarily think of it as a measure of sentiment and that is only and that's why i say

454
00:38:27,292 --> 00:38:32,812
it's only something you can react to so to your point trying to game your trade to to manipulate

455
00:38:32,812 --> 00:38:37,372
mnav in a variety of different ways i think is setting yourself up for trouble yeah

456
00:38:40,012 --> 00:38:43,252
Yeah, this days to cover MNAP, I think is really interesting.

457
00:38:43,412 --> 00:38:49,812
I mean, some dynamic that it doesn't take into play is like the underlying architecture of the market as well.

458
00:38:49,812 --> 00:38:57,752
I mean, one of the reasons I think that this is high for strategy is just because of the architecture of the market.

459
00:38:57,912 --> 00:38:59,312
Like they have this passive bid.

460
00:38:59,672 --> 00:39:01,092
They've got a huge moat.

461
00:39:01,452 --> 00:39:03,292
There's nobody else that can catch them.

462
00:39:03,292 --> 00:39:08,292
And so I think it kind of comes back to this risk component

463
00:39:09,172 --> 00:39:10,812
that I don't think is taken into consideration

464
00:39:10,812 --> 00:39:12,512
in most of these metrics that are created today.

465
00:39:12,512 --> 00:39:14,332
And I think it can be folded in.

466
00:39:14,332 --> 00:39:17,172
I'm just not exactly sure how I'm trying to crack this

467
00:39:17,172 --> 00:39:21,152
at the same time where it's like risk adjusted days

468
00:39:21,152 --> 00:39:22,632
to cover MNAV, right?

469
00:39:22,632 --> 00:39:26,432
Like how many units of risk are you taking on

470
00:39:27,952 --> 00:39:30,912
in order to have that kind of yield?

471
00:39:30,912 --> 00:39:55,692
I think that's a good, that's really interesting, Jeff. Totally agree. And people don't think about it like that enough, right? If you have a five year track record, acquiring BTC per share and doing it effectively, then if you're even if your days to cover MNav is longer, shouldn't it be priced higher because it's a more reliable future looking expectation?

472
00:39:56,832 --> 00:39:57,312
Right.

473
00:39:58,572 --> 00:39:59,092
Right.

474
00:39:59,092 --> 00:40:05,972
And one, I mean, for me, like how I kind of view this as well as like one of the risks,

475
00:40:07,732 --> 00:40:12,532
I'm trying to develop a risk framework for what this looks like. And one of the risks here is

476
00:40:12,532 --> 00:40:17,892
copycat risk. Like what if somebody comes up and pops up in your marketplace,

477
00:40:17,892 --> 00:40:22,612
it's got more money than you, buys more Bitcoin than you do and starts running a strategy.

478
00:40:22,612 --> 00:40:34,772
and how quickly can they do it? Can they catch you? And I think that needs to be taken into

479
00:40:34,772 --> 00:40:41,772
consideration for some of these MNAV metrics. And right now, everybody in the market that's in the

480
00:40:41,772 --> 00:40:44,732
market doing this, they've got so much of a headstart. Maybe it doesn't matter right now.

481
00:40:45,692 --> 00:40:50,832
But I think as this market evolves and we're going to start to see a lot more people come

482
00:40:50,832 --> 00:40:51,892
into the scene here, right?

483
00:40:51,892 --> 00:40:55,832
Like the next hot broad is going to come walking in the door with lingerie on.

484
00:40:55,832 --> 00:40:59,712
And you're going to be like, whoa, you know, like it's the classic meme of,

485
00:40:59,952 --> 00:41:00,932
you know, flipping your head.

486
00:41:01,092 --> 00:41:02,112
Let me check that one out.

487
00:41:03,172 --> 00:41:04,732
And I think that's going to happen, right?

488
00:41:04,752 --> 00:41:08,452
We're going to like, we saw Metaplanet Madness podcast pop up.

489
00:41:08,492 --> 00:41:11,972
We're going to see that pop up with all of these other entities

490
00:41:11,972 --> 00:41:13,672
in these other jurisdictions.

491
00:41:13,672 --> 00:41:17,652
And everybody's going to be fighting for media attention and retail attention.

492
00:41:18,652 --> 00:41:19,672
So yeah.

493
00:41:19,672 --> 00:41:28,512
Yeah, and that's why, you know, and I'm not trying to say one metric is better than another.

494
00:41:28,812 --> 00:41:30,732
That's why I think about MNav the way I do.

495
00:41:31,112 --> 00:41:36,992
I just think that it's, you can theoretically manipulate MNav in the short term,

496
00:41:37,232 --> 00:41:43,592
but long term is not something you can actively manipulate and pivot up and pivot down as it suits your strategy.

497
00:41:43,852 --> 00:41:49,372
So that's why for me, while this is an interesting metric, I just want to make sure that I consider it.

498
00:41:49,672 --> 00:41:54,672
in the totality of what MNAV is

499
00:41:55,772 --> 00:41:59,472
versus trying to think of it as a simplistic metric.

500
00:41:59,472 --> 00:42:02,112
Because MNAV in my view is a point in time

501
00:42:02,112 --> 00:42:03,552
and it's gonna shift

502
00:42:03,552 --> 00:42:05,272
and you can manipulate that points in time.

503
00:42:05,272 --> 00:42:06,812
So days to cover MNAV for me,

504
00:42:06,812 --> 00:42:09,052
I have trouble kind of grasping it.

505
00:42:09,052 --> 00:42:10,132
Well, yeah.

506
00:42:10,132 --> 00:42:13,972
And it's like, okay, this is a cool metric.

507
00:42:13,972 --> 00:42:15,532
Does the entire market use it?

508
00:42:15,532 --> 00:42:23,172
you know like do all of the algos use it no precisely yeah like the sole you're like i need

509
00:42:23,172 --> 00:42:27,812
the adiq version right like how many people are saying that right like uh yeah it's an interesting

510
00:42:27,812 --> 00:42:32,812
it's an interesting data point and it shows i guess kind of efficiency i mean even adam

511
00:42:32,812 --> 00:42:38,412
livingston created this new i'm you know hey i'm not in dark mode here adam livingston created this

512
00:42:38,412 --> 00:42:43,472
new metric torque adjusted btc yield which is uh you know i think a little bit based on some

513
00:42:43,472 --> 00:42:47,672
conversations we had about risk adjusted, but torque adjusted, talking about efficiency

514
00:42:47,672 --> 00:42:54,952
of the BTC yield and how efficient it is calculated. And it's interesting metrics that are coming

515
00:42:54,952 --> 00:43:00,272
into play here. And this is what I was saying, like the world of traditional finance, like you

516
00:43:00,272 --> 00:43:04,012
can get a master's in finance just by watching what people are doing out here on Twitter and

517
00:43:04,012 --> 00:43:07,292
literally build the future. Everybody's building the future at the same time.

518
00:43:08,372 --> 00:43:12,992
And to that point, that's what's so great about this. We have guys that are

519
00:43:12,992 --> 00:43:19,192
not big hedge fund players, that are not multi-multi-millionaires pushing the market in which

520
00:43:19,192 --> 00:43:26,572
way, that are doing this high-level analysis, is really a case of the group environment front-running

521
00:43:26,572 --> 00:43:31,632
the hell out of traditional finance. And it persists. The more of these leverage plays that

522
00:43:31,632 --> 00:43:37,852
come out, this front-running of the retail player, the retail investor over the big player,

523
00:43:38,052 --> 00:43:42,792
the trend is not stopping. It's only getting more and more great. And I just think it's fantastic

524
00:43:42,792 --> 00:43:48,152
to see happen real time back to that you know cyber wolfpack analogy i think that um we're

525
00:43:48,152 --> 00:43:51,672
going to mob up on these guys pretty pretty heavily in the overcome in the coming years

526
00:43:51,672 --> 00:43:57,912
it's going to be fun to watch yeah one more data point i want to hit hit on here just you know go

527
00:43:57,912 --> 00:44:04,792
leaning into the data here a big data episode is strategy's average trading volume i think as of

528
00:44:04,792 --> 00:44:10,872
today and i have it here on the strategy tracker actually as of today strategy traded 7.3 billion

529
00:44:10,872 --> 00:44:16,792
dollars of shares. It's the ninth largest publicly traded equity in the market. They were ranked 88th

530
00:44:16,792 --> 00:44:24,072
largest equity in the market. This is a staggering statistic. Since October 30th,

531
00:44:24,072 --> 00:44:30,472
strategy hasn't traded lower than the 15th top publicly traded equity since October 30th,

532
00:44:31,352 --> 00:44:37,032
which is just a staggering statistic. And I just want to put this in perspective. MetaPlanet was

533
00:44:37,032 --> 00:44:42,952
most actively traded stock out of 12 000 on the otc markets which is awesome these btc treasury

534
00:44:42,952 --> 00:44:49,272
companies are floating to the top 388 million in volume across 28 000 trades so you you put this

535
00:44:49,272 --> 00:44:57,352
into perspective it's like 388 million in volume relative to the 7 billion 7.5 billion uh that

536
00:44:57,352 --> 00:45:02,792
happened on strategy today so it's just interesting to compare and then that relativity relative to

537
00:45:02,792 --> 00:45:08,712
its market cap, MetaPlanet is higher. Over the last day, $388 million relative to a $4 billion

538
00:45:08,712 --> 00:45:15,192
market cap. That percentage is around 9-ish percent, but that's just on the last day.

539
00:45:15,192 --> 00:45:21,272
So probably trading somewhere near the average trading volume of market cap. Why is it important?

540
00:45:21,272 --> 00:45:25,432
That's important because it's liquidity. This is a representation of liquidity and how deep,

541
00:45:26,152 --> 00:45:32,632
how liquid these equities are. And I think if you're trading significant volumes of stock or

542
00:45:32,632 --> 00:45:38,632
options or whatever that may be liquidity is important uh to have the ability to go in and

543
00:45:38,632 --> 00:45:45,912
out and move quickly within trades what's up ben what's going on guys it's hard to be anything but

544
00:45:45,912 --> 00:45:51,032
pumped today huh you just can't get over 111 but we're gonna get there this thing's coiling hard

545
00:45:51,592 --> 00:45:58,392
people are uh people are ready i'm ready but what you were just talking about with the liquidity i

546
00:45:58,392 --> 00:46:04,832
I think what we're starting to see, and we're going to see it really loud on X, is the difference

547
00:46:04,832 --> 00:46:10,852
between an institutional grade investment vehicle, where institutions can execute their

548
00:46:10,852 --> 00:46:16,012
trades at the size and scale and speed that they want to, versus the rotation of capital

549
00:46:16,012 --> 00:46:20,632
that's probably going to happen largely in the retail market for people that are chasing

550
00:46:20,632 --> 00:46:31,728
the higher returns the speculators So you going to start seeing capital rotate throughout the market and you seeing that right now for sure with meta planet i mean the squeeze is amazing

551
00:46:31,728 --> 00:46:39,648
i love to see this and i'm really open that dylan and simon capitalize on this because this is one

552
00:46:39,648 --> 00:46:47,168
of those rare events that you get where you've got the capability to really rocket yourself up

553
00:46:47,168 --> 00:46:52,048
the leaderboard. I mean, I put out a post earlier saying I think it was going to take like 650 million

554
00:46:52,048 --> 00:46:57,808
in capital raise to get them into the top five publicly traded equities in terms of Bitcoin

555
00:46:57,808 --> 00:47:04,708
holdings, which is incredible. And so you'd almost be negligent not to take advantage of this here at

556
00:47:04,708 --> 00:47:12,668
some point. And I know there's nuance to it and the Japanese markets are strange, but the behind

557
00:47:12,668 --> 00:47:17,348
the scenes, the private placements, the calls that are going to be happening, the ability to,

558
00:47:17,368 --> 00:47:21,908
you know, issue these in blocks through, you know, some of the brokerages or directly to some of these

559
00:47:21,908 --> 00:47:27,608
funds that are short is probably going to happen, but they've got all the leverage right now on the

560
00:47:27,608 --> 00:47:32,828
terms to make that happen. So it probably comes in some way where they do like a really tight VWAP

561
00:47:32,828 --> 00:47:37,608
from a pricing perspective. Maybe it's like a five-day VWAP, which keeps the price they're

562
00:47:37,608 --> 00:47:41,948
issuing these warrants at to all these companies at a really close level to the market price so

563
00:47:41,948 --> 00:47:48,368
that these guys aren't getting favorable conditions. But regardless, I just can't imagine

564
00:47:48,368 --> 00:47:52,368
that they don't take advantage of this. But you're going to see this quite a bit. I mean,

565
00:47:52,648 --> 00:47:56,368
Japan's going to be really unique because that's just a unique market in the way that they operate

566
00:47:56,368 --> 00:47:59,868
and the way that they shut down an equity for an entire day when their circuit breaker hits.

567
00:48:00,548 --> 00:48:06,008
But you're going to see rotation from all these new entrants into the market because retail

568
00:48:06,008 --> 00:48:10,888
investors have started to figure out that there's this period at the beginning of this where you've

569
00:48:10,888 --> 00:48:18,168
got just massive ramp up in Bitcoin yield. And when you get into these really early, you've got

570
00:48:18,168 --> 00:48:23,228
the ability to have significantly outsized returns. And because strategies reach such scale,

571
00:48:23,228 --> 00:48:30,348
it's not going to be the lightning fast mover that like a meta planet getting squeezed is going to be

572
00:48:30,348 --> 00:48:35,388
anymore. You're still going to have those moves. I have no doubt about that. I have zero loss in my

573
00:48:35,388 --> 00:48:40,388
thesis around micro strategy. I think it's still going to be a very great play, but you're dealing

574
00:48:40,388 --> 00:48:45,548
with a different type of trading instrument now because it is such a deep market. And some of

575
00:48:45,548 --> 00:48:50,368
these other companies are still trading really thin. So it doesn't take very much capital to move

576
00:48:50,368 --> 00:48:54,588
those equities around. So you're going to see the rotation, but you're also going to see people get

577
00:48:54,588 --> 00:48:59,888
burned a lot. And I think that's something that this audience in particular needs to be very,

578
00:48:59,888 --> 00:49:04,548
very curious about when you start watching all these new companies launch is you're going to

579
00:49:04,548 --> 00:49:09,048
have to start getting up to speed on the nuance of all of these different deal structures because

580
00:49:09,048 --> 00:49:14,248
it's complex and they're coming fast and there's more coming. I mean, this market is just exploding

581
00:49:14,248 --> 00:49:19,088
right now. And so you're going to have to start getting up to speed on things like lockup periods

582
00:49:19,088 --> 00:49:23,708
and all this other stuff, where if you're chasing one of those pumps and you get in at the wrong

583
00:49:23,708 --> 00:49:29,068
time, you've got the chance to get burned. So I love that this market's evolving so fast because

584
00:49:29,068 --> 00:49:32,908
this is kind of what we used to always talk about happening over the next three to five years. And

585
00:49:32,908 --> 00:49:37,508
now it's happening in like three months. There's just so many companies that are coming out and

586
00:49:37,508 --> 00:49:43,428
entering the space and giving people a different flavor. And ultimately, I think you see the Bitcoin

587
00:49:43,428 --> 00:49:47,808
treasury market segment much the way you see a lot of the other equities where you're going to have

588
00:49:47,808 --> 00:49:52,748
what we'll consider the Bitcoin value plays, which is ultimately going to be strategy at their scale

589
00:49:52,748 --> 00:49:57,328
and probably a couple others that really achieve scale. And those are the ones where institutions

590
00:49:57,328 --> 00:50:01,808
can play and trade and do all the things they want to do. And then you're going to have these

591
00:50:01,808 --> 00:50:06,408
growth and hyper growth. And so they're going to graduate up the ranks as they build that Bitcoin

592
00:50:06,408 --> 00:50:11,628
treasury. And it's going to make really unique investment opportunities for people to find

593
00:50:11,628 --> 00:50:15,788
different ways to structure their portfolios based on whatever their risk preferences are in this

594
00:50:15,788 --> 00:50:22,308
space. So it's evolving incredibly fast. And it's just going to be so exciting for the next year.

595
00:50:22,608 --> 00:50:27,148
I think that this space is just going to continue to explode. But I do want to see more companies

596
00:50:27,148 --> 00:50:31,988
come out and just announce that they're just adopting Bitcoin treasuries, not going out and

597
00:50:31,988 --> 00:50:37,088
doing the capital markets play. I think that there's going to be a segmentation of the companies

598
00:50:37,088 --> 00:50:44,048
that can actually pull off raising money in the capital markets. And ultimately, I do think that

599
00:50:44,048 --> 00:50:48,228
you're going to find that operating companies are important to that. I know right now the sentiment

600
00:50:48,228 --> 00:50:51,868
is it isn't. They can just go use the capital markets and issue equity and they'll be able to

601
00:50:51,868 --> 00:50:56,888
run it. That's fine in a bull market. In a bear market, you need a stabilizing factor, I think.

602
00:50:56,888 --> 00:51:00,728
So I think we're going to see some segmentation here.

603
00:51:00,808 --> 00:51:04,428
And over time, you're going to see different performance between companies that do have

604
00:51:04,428 --> 00:51:08,868
operating companies and ones that are just pure shells trying to raise using the capital

605
00:51:08,868 --> 00:51:09,408
markets.

606
00:51:09,808 --> 00:51:11,728
But there's a flavor for everybody now.

607
00:51:11,828 --> 00:51:14,128
So you get to pick your sandbox that you're going to play in.

608
00:51:14,248 --> 00:51:16,908
And there's never been a better time to be an investor in this space.

609
00:51:18,308 --> 00:51:23,408
Yeah, I think that to Ben's point, what we could see is a Bitcoin equity season, not

610
00:51:23,408 --> 00:51:23,928
all season.

611
00:51:23,928 --> 00:51:26,648
and what will end up happening.

612
00:51:26,788 --> 00:51:28,848
And again, I don't want to belabor this point too much,

613
00:51:28,968 --> 00:51:32,008
but while some of these companies will get over their skis

614
00:51:32,008 --> 00:51:32,888
and they will blow up,

615
00:51:32,948 --> 00:51:34,148
and I don't mean the company will go down,

616
00:51:34,228 --> 00:51:35,928
I mean their Bitcoin treasury plan will go down

617
00:51:35,928 --> 00:51:36,588
and they'll have to pivot.

618
00:51:37,028 --> 00:51:38,968
I still think that bodes well for Bitcoin overall

619
00:51:38,968 --> 00:51:40,608
because that's a different kind of sell pressure

620
00:51:40,608 --> 00:51:41,868
and a different kind of market dynamic

621
00:51:41,868 --> 00:51:43,968
that we saw in past cycles

622
00:51:43,968 --> 00:51:45,408
where you have like all season, right?

623
00:51:45,408 --> 00:51:47,628
Where you have massive levels of running up

624
00:51:47,628 --> 00:51:51,828
and then you have these shit coins doing 15, 20, 30 Xs

625
00:51:51,828 --> 00:51:53,708
and then exploding when everyone takes profits.

626
00:51:53,928 --> 00:52:09,548
So being these Bitcoin equity plays, these leverage Bitcoin equity plays, these Bitcoin treasury plays, the one benefit that I think we have, and guys, check my logic on this if I'm wrong, is that traditional companies are not going to be as violent leaving the market.

627
00:52:09,548 --> 00:52:14,188
it's going to have to be a staggered exit if they have to move away from a bitcoin treasury i think

628
00:52:14,748 --> 00:52:19,228
they're not going to just you know dump everything all at once without warning and then move on

629
00:52:19,228 --> 00:52:24,748
leave everyone back holding i don't think i don't think they would do that as readily as a vc that's

630
00:52:24,748 --> 00:52:32,588
running an altcoin pump and dump scam right so the the dynamics can will still exist to some degree

631
00:52:32,588 --> 00:52:38,348
people are going to get blown up people are going to get over their skis but even with that i think

632
00:52:38,348 --> 00:52:42,588
this is still good for the overall thesis of bitcoin and the overall thesis of bitcoin treasuries

633
00:52:42,588 --> 00:52:47,388
because the companies that survive the ones that end up surviving like a downturn or potential

634
00:52:47,388 --> 00:52:52,108
downturn or some turmoil like a strategy i think going to be seen as very very solid plays in years

635
00:52:52,108 --> 00:52:57,068
to come and that'll give them a lot of staying power i think some of these companies are just

636
00:52:57,068 --> 00:53:01,708
going to do this backwards where they're going to start the treasury strategy right away because

637
00:53:01,708 --> 00:53:06,828
the capital is available to them to get out and start achieving scale and then they'll look at

638
00:53:06,828 --> 00:53:13,868
acquiring a company to build that operating side of the business later so that's my hunch at what's

639
00:53:13,868 --> 00:53:17,548
going to happen with a lot of these some of them won't some will just try to operate them as these

640
00:53:17,548 --> 00:53:21,388
basically you know holding companies that have access to the capital markets but i do think

641
00:53:22,028 --> 00:53:26,508
that you'll see some that achieve scale first in the treasury side you know kind of doing it

642
00:53:26,508 --> 00:53:30,748
backwards and then they'll go and look for operating companies that they can acquire and

643
00:53:30,748 --> 00:53:36,428
roll into that so there's going to be a lot of flavors of this and you know yes the banks are

644
00:53:36,428 --> 00:53:42,428
creative and people are really thinking very differently about how to execute this and how

645
00:53:42,428 --> 00:53:48,588
to get into this market because they see bitcoin now as an inevitability right it's coming you keep

646
00:53:48,588 --> 00:53:53,948
seeing all the cracks in the traditional financial system getting wider getting louder people are

647
00:53:53,948 --> 00:53:58,428
starting to notice you're seeing everything happening with the japan bonds you're seeing

648
00:53:58,428 --> 00:54:03,628
the impact on the u.s rates here i mean people are awake now and they're realizing that there's

649
00:54:03,628 --> 00:54:09,788
probably a very significant need to begin to participate in the only decentralized store value

650
00:54:09,788 --> 00:54:15,788
asset that's out there that's at any scale and that's why i do want to see a lot of these companies

651
00:54:15,788 --> 00:54:21,228
just start treasuries as well you know this this whole using the capital markets is amazing

652
00:54:21,868 --> 00:54:26,668
but i think that there's probably going to be limited capacity in the markets where you might

653
00:54:26,668 --> 00:54:31,688
be able to get 50 to 100 of these that are doing it really well, or at least doing it at some level

654
00:54:31,688 --> 00:54:38,748
of scale. But if you want to get to 10, 15, 20% of all publicly traded companies with Bitcoin on

655
00:54:38,748 --> 00:54:44,088
the balance sheet, you've got to start championing the other side as well. And so I would love to see

656
00:54:44,088 --> 00:54:47,768
some more companies just come out and just start converting their own treasury holdings.

657
00:54:47,968 --> 00:54:52,128
Not that they have to go and actively raise capital around it, because I think just converting

658
00:54:52,128 --> 00:54:57,888
the reserves you have on your balance sheet is going to be a competitive advantage on its own

659
00:54:57,888 --> 00:55:02,668
relative to your peer group. So there's going to be consolidation in the market if you play this

660
00:55:02,668 --> 00:55:07,928
out over 10 years and one company out of a five company peer group puts Bitcoin on the balance

661
00:55:07,928 --> 00:55:12,868
sheet, holds all their cash reserves in Bitcoin. Bitcoin continues to compound at 20, 30% a year.

662
00:55:13,288 --> 00:55:17,788
After 10 years, one of those companies is significantly better capitalized than the others

663
00:55:17,788 --> 00:55:22,088
and you might be the one to consolidate your industry and really cement yourself in that spot.

664
00:55:22,128 --> 00:55:26,268
So I think there's a competitive advantage just to acquiring Bitcoin.

665
00:55:26,688 --> 00:55:31,848
We get excited about the high octane version of the Bitcoin treasury and I love it.

666
00:55:31,928 --> 00:55:33,448
It's what I spend all day on.

667
00:55:34,208 --> 00:55:42,188
But there's another, there's a lot of space for just more traditional companies that adopt Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset.

668
00:55:42,468 --> 00:55:44,088
And I'm pretty pumped to start seeing those.

669
00:55:44,808 --> 00:55:45,788
Yeah, absolutely.

670
00:55:45,788 --> 00:55:52,828
And if the market starts to adjust and reprice here, I'm thinking about maybe a year or two down the road.

671
00:55:53,808 --> 00:56:00,328
And let's say there's a bear market, but for everything, like stocks go down and Bitcoin goes down.

672
00:56:00,808 --> 00:56:07,688
You may see a situation where a company may want to sell their Bitcoin to pick up an operating company that's got cash.

673
00:56:08,448 --> 00:56:09,148
Maybe it's trading.

674
00:56:09,148 --> 00:56:16,508
maybe the cash company is trading at a discount to its cash and you're able to convert it into

675
00:56:16,508 --> 00:56:21,548
bitcoin and get the operating company on top of it yeah i think the the future the evolution of

676
00:56:21,548 --> 00:56:27,468
that is going to be really exciting to watch right like all so many eyes are on this meta planet

677
00:56:27,468 --> 00:56:33,628
thing right now which is it's it's incredible it's amazing what's happening it's like i said earlier

678
00:56:33,628 --> 00:56:37,068
it's like you get the butterflies in your stomach i'm probably gonna have a hard time sleeping

679
00:56:37,068 --> 00:56:42,908
be tonight watching what's going on. But at the same time, there's so many other things that are

680
00:56:42,908 --> 00:56:49,768
going to happen in the next 10 years. If you want to be around this, there hasn't been a better time

681
00:56:49,768 --> 00:56:57,688
to be close to this stuff. Who's having a better time than Dylan right now? I love the meme where

682
00:56:57,688 --> 00:57:04,688
he takes the hat off and then puts that on. When you're in this position, this is what you dream

683
00:57:04,688 --> 00:57:09,128
of if you're running one of these treasuries. Yeah. Right. Everybody's very aware that there's

684
00:57:09,128 --> 00:57:12,968
an arm play between the market value and the book value of the company. Right. I mean, that's been

685
00:57:12,968 --> 00:57:18,788
highlighted over and over through strategy in the ATM. So when you get these chances where you've

686
00:57:18,788 --> 00:57:25,428
just got these series of events that line up and result in this crazy squeeze that starts to happen

687
00:57:25,428 --> 00:57:30,288
and you build this, you know, relative to all the peers in the treasury space, you build this

688
00:57:30,288 --> 00:57:37,068
massively outsized premium in your market cap versus the book value, I mean, you got to be

689
00:57:37,068 --> 00:57:41,788
downright giddy because they're going to be double, triple the size of the company or of the treasury

690
00:57:41,788 --> 00:57:46,188
in relatively short order here. If any of these guys want to get out and they're going to want

691
00:57:46,188 --> 00:57:50,468
to get out. I mean, there's no doubt that they've got a big cohort of people that are pinned at the

692
00:57:50,468 --> 00:57:55,648
moment. And that's a real problem if you're a fund. And if you want to save face and get out

693
00:57:55,648 --> 00:58:00,148
of this, you're going to start making calls and being friendly and wanting to partner here.

694
00:58:00,288 --> 00:58:02,888
and figure something out to get out of it.

695
00:58:02,988 --> 00:58:05,668
So it's just such a unique space.

696
00:58:05,728 --> 00:58:07,308
But I think what they've really highlighted

697
00:58:07,308 --> 00:58:12,908
is that there is a source of alpha here

698
00:58:12,908 --> 00:58:15,548
in the foreign jurisdictions, right?

699
00:58:15,568 --> 00:58:17,648
Outside of the US, looking at the foreign markets

700
00:58:17,648 --> 00:58:20,308
and finding the nuances in these markets

701
00:58:20,308 --> 00:58:22,548
and looking for weakness in particular markets

702
00:58:22,548 --> 00:58:25,668
and areas to capitalize on inefficiencies

703
00:58:25,668 --> 00:58:27,028
and things like the tax codes,

704
00:58:27,068 --> 00:58:28,068
like what they have in Japan.

705
00:58:28,068 --> 00:58:34,088
am so i i think it's really cool that we're starting to see announcements pretty much every

706
00:58:34,088 --> 00:58:42,648
week of a new market getting a new version of an lb or a treasury company and there's going to be

707
00:58:42,648 --> 00:58:46,608
nuances in a lot of those markets and it just means that we're all going to have to keep getting

708
00:58:46,608 --> 00:58:50,528
smart on what's happening in all these different countries because we're going to get another crash

709
00:58:50,528 --> 00:58:56,168
course in their bond markets and the way their currency operates and their tax regulations and

710
00:58:56,168 --> 00:59:00,488
their rules. And that's how you're going to find the opportunities. Cause most people don't want

711
00:59:00,488 --> 00:59:05,088
to do the work to figure that out and to find the nuance and to find where there's an edge,

712
00:59:05,088 --> 00:59:08,228
but it's going to be out there. And there's going to be more than one of these markets.

713
00:59:08,228 --> 00:59:13,788
That's going to have some unique setups. Like, like Japan has, I have not learned as much as

714
00:59:13,788 --> 00:59:19,508
I have in a lot. Like I've learned more in the last couple of days than like, you know,

715
00:59:19,888 --> 00:59:24,448
most of my financial education, right. You're sitting on AI. I'm like, what is this? You know,

716
00:59:24,448 --> 00:59:28,348
what is this? And it's cranking it out. I'm reading as fast as I can, scrolling like,

717
00:59:28,428 --> 00:59:35,248
all right, next question. What is this? And man, holy moly. There's so many things going on. And

718
00:59:35,248 --> 00:59:39,188
access to information is faster than it's ever been. Everybody's getting exponentially smarter.

719
00:59:39,368 --> 00:59:45,528
If you're not using AI, you're totally screwed, crawling behind. I can't believe people aren't

720
00:59:45,528 --> 00:59:49,268
paying attention to this stuff. It's crazy. It's probably going to be a knowledge retention issue

721
00:59:49,268 --> 00:59:50,748
That starts popping up out of this.

722
00:59:50,888 --> 00:59:54,468
I mean, you use those AI tools all day and man, are they powerful.

723
00:59:54,588 --> 00:59:58,308
And those deep research functions, if you've got a specific topic that you want to get smart

724
00:59:58,308 --> 00:59:59,088
on is amazing.

725
00:59:59,288 --> 01:00:03,668
But the problem is you can almost digest too much data at one time, right?

726
01:00:03,708 --> 01:00:06,928
And so you're quick to read it and move on to the next thing.

727
01:00:06,928 --> 01:00:09,928
And then you got to be able to connect that picture later.

728
01:00:10,108 --> 01:00:13,928
So it's going to be tough because it is fun to go down all the different rabbit holes.

729
01:00:13,928 --> 01:00:18,768
But sometimes you do have to specialize in a certain area to make sure that you can truly

730
01:00:18,768 --> 01:00:23,548
be an expert and see differences that other people can't see and markets are going to be no different

731
01:00:23,548 --> 01:00:30,228
yeah i just thought it's speaking like those people because of ai tools yeah six people yeah

732
01:00:30,228 --> 01:00:36,828
six wow uh dan speaking of specialization i was going to kick it over to you because i know you

733
01:00:36,828 --> 01:00:42,108
put together some stuff you were thinking about the market the landscape you're looking at similar

734
01:00:42,108 --> 01:00:46,528
you're looking at other equities you're trying to put all this data together um what are you

735
01:00:46,528 --> 01:00:52,128
thinking about? What are you looking into these days? Oh, you're on mute.

736
01:00:56,568 --> 01:01:00,248
Now it's a corporate meeting. This is what happens.

737
01:01:00,348 --> 01:01:01,528
Still on mute. Still on mute.

738
01:01:02,148 --> 01:01:07,368
He might have lost his mic or something. Yeah, that's all right. Maybe he'll come back.

739
01:01:09,168 --> 01:01:13,008
You there? Yeah, I'm off. I'm off. I can hear you now.

740
01:01:13,008 --> 01:01:13,788
I can't hear you.

741
01:01:14,108 --> 01:01:14,588
You're good now.

742
01:01:15,968 --> 01:01:16,728
Yeah, sure.

743
01:01:16,848 --> 01:01:17,688
I'll share my screen.

744
01:01:18,048 --> 01:01:22,748
And I just have a very broad overview of the different companies that we're looking at.

745
01:01:23,348 --> 01:01:25,948
And then we can talk Strife and Strike ATM.

746
01:01:26,168 --> 01:01:27,868
I think, well, Strike ATM.

747
01:01:28,008 --> 01:01:30,108
I think that's kind of the most interesting topic in terms of strategy.

748
01:01:30,468 --> 01:01:31,348
Sharing the wrong screen.

749
01:01:33,628 --> 01:01:34,468
Yeah, right here.

750
01:01:37,568 --> 01:01:38,228
Sorry, guys.

751
01:01:38,268 --> 01:01:39,528
I'm a novice over here.

752
01:01:39,528 --> 01:01:40,048
Window.

753
01:01:40,048 --> 01:01:43,048
There we go.

754
01:01:43,048 --> 01:01:45,048
That will...

755
01:01:45,048 --> 01:01:50,048
Now we see each other.

756
01:01:50,048 --> 01:01:55,048
So that's the whole window, and then you should be able to see...

757
01:01:55,104 --> 01:02:00,504
All right. While he's doing that, Dan, while you get that figured out, I'll jump into a leverage

758
01:02:00,504 --> 01:02:07,104
update. MSTR leverage update. We've shown this past couple of weeks. This is as of 521, MSTR holds

759
01:02:07,104 --> 01:02:14,204
576,000 Bitcoin on balance sheet, Bitcoin price at 110,000. You've got assets of 63 billion. This

760
01:02:14,204 --> 01:02:19,864
is up from last week. I think it was like 57 billion. Debt held on balance sheet, 8.2 billion,

761
01:02:19,864 --> 01:02:24,884
preferred stock 1.7. Net capital held on balance sheet is $53 billion. So if you were to put this,

762
01:02:24,884 --> 01:02:37,604
If you were to put just their net capital next to the market cap of all the publicly traded companies in the market, MSTR would be ranked about 180th just by net capital if you put it next to the market cap, which is just incredible financial strength.

763
01:02:37,704 --> 01:02:40,504
This is one of the strongest net balance sheets on the entire planet.

764
01:02:41,324 --> 01:02:43,344
They've got a leverage ratio of 13%.

765
01:02:43,344 --> 01:02:48,564
The Bitcoin price would need to go down to $14,200 for the assets to be worth less than the liabilities.

766
01:02:48,564 --> 01:02:53,464
on a pro forma basis. If you back out the debt that's currently trading in the money,

767
01:02:53,824 --> 01:02:58,704
it's about $3 billion that's trading in the money. The leverage ratio would be about 8%.

768
01:02:58,704 --> 01:03:03,424
And the Bitcoin price needed for the assets to be less than the debt on the balance sheet would

769
01:03:03,424 --> 01:03:09,784
need to be about 8,600. Again, everybody and their mother would be selling everything in order to buy

770
01:03:09,784 --> 01:03:17,264
more Bitcoin if we went back down to 8,000. So very, very strong position that strategy's in

771
01:03:17,264 --> 01:03:22,384
from a financial perspective and uh you know leaning into that dan you ready

772
01:03:26,304 --> 01:03:31,984
now you're on mute again lost his mic again did you guys talk at all before i got on about the uh

773
01:03:32,784 --> 01:03:37,104
the debt ladder that they've got out with the convertible bonds with strategy and now that

774
01:03:37,104 --> 01:03:41,024
a ton of them are already convertible and now they're super deep in the money where they're

775
01:03:41,024 --> 01:03:44,944
effectively equity and you might be getting back to the point where it's time to be on conversion

776
01:03:44,944 --> 01:03:50,704
watch yeah i haven't haven't hit on it but that's effectively what i'm getting at here and maybe i'll

777
01:03:50,704 --> 01:03:56,464
maybe i'll hop over to the strategy to the debt page and i did bring this up a little bit earlier

778
01:03:56,464 --> 01:04:01,504
so um i had a tweet about it earlier so you've got about three billion that's currently trading

779
01:04:01,504 --> 01:04:07,984
in the money ben to your point here and i think you can sort it by conversion price yeah you've

780
01:04:07,984 --> 01:04:12,224
got about four of them right now that are effectively equity right where there's really

781
01:04:12,224 --> 01:04:19,024
no more gamma trading right now and if that happens i think you could probably see those first

782
01:04:19,024 --> 01:04:29,824
four and i can't what do you got 1.8 billion 2.6 3.3 billion yeah 3.2 yep that would roll off and

783
01:04:29,824 --> 01:04:33,984
that would open up for some really big converts to come because i do think converts are coming i know

784
01:04:33,984 --> 01:04:38,064
i know a lot of people think that they're only ever going to use the atm again but i don't believe

785
01:04:38,064 --> 01:04:44,304
that at all they're not that far out of the 60-day window from the last one that they issued and so i

786
01:04:44,304 --> 01:04:49,664
think now when volatility is coming back into the bitcoin market again it's going to become very

787
01:04:49,664 --> 01:04:53,984
advantageous for them to start rebuilding that ladder again and you're going to see a lot of

788
01:04:53,984 --> 01:04:58,544
these either convert or because they're so deep in the money they'll just start issuing new ones

789
01:04:58,544 --> 01:05:04,304
because they're under levered anyway so they've probably got capacity to do five six billion

790
01:05:04,304 --> 01:05:09,664
pretty quickly if they decide to and that'll start reigniting that volatility again

791
01:05:10,224 --> 01:05:16,704
and the bewilderment i don't think they're done pulling on this lever but i just think that as

792
01:05:16,704 --> 01:05:21,504
you get more tools available to you like keep in mind strategy is the only one with as many tools

793
01:05:21,504 --> 01:05:27,504
available as they have and at the scale that they have so while they're working on scaling up strk

794
01:05:27,504 --> 01:05:32,304
clearly that's one of the primary tools they're going to use in the future given they allocated

795
01:05:32,304 --> 01:05:37,584
21 billion directly to that. It's going to take some time. So in the meantime, they're going to

796
01:05:37,584 --> 01:05:41,024
have to re-lever up in other ways. And I still think that they're going to need to juice the

797
01:05:41,024 --> 01:05:46,064
leverage with the convertible bonds to right-size the leverage ratio while they continue to build

798
01:05:46,064 --> 01:05:51,964
the liquidity on STRK. And the ATM is probably going to keep being used while they're not issuing

799
01:05:51,964 --> 01:05:56,684
the convertible bonds. But I'm expecting these to come fairly soon as long as the market conditions

800
01:05:56,684 --> 01:06:01,484
remain right. And it's going to let people see that now that they're achieving the scale,

801
01:06:01,484 --> 01:06:06,744
they're going to really focus on making sure they execute these at the most opportune times

802
01:06:06,744 --> 01:06:11,504
when they can get the best terms, when they're getting the highest premiums, the lowest coupons.

803
01:06:11,824 --> 01:06:16,444
And they're going to be very strategic about how they deploy these because this is longer term debt.

804
01:06:16,904 --> 01:06:21,284
And so they want to make sure that when they get it, they're getting it during the perfect market

805
01:06:21,284 --> 01:06:25,744
conditions. And those are starting to show up now, right? This move in Bitcoin is going to be really

806
01:06:25,744 --> 01:06:31,124
important for getting more convertible bonds out if they want to get the right type of pricing. So

807
01:06:31,124 --> 01:06:35,824
I think we're hitting that window now where you're going to start seeing this tool be used again.

808
01:06:36,284 --> 01:06:40,764
It's kind of a matter of when and how long this volatility in Bitcoin remains.

809
01:06:41,444 --> 01:06:46,344
So you hit on two things. There's a 60-day window generally from your prior convertible bond. I

810
01:06:46,344 --> 01:06:49,744
think that you can't issue another one within 60 days. So the last one that they issued

811
01:06:49,744 --> 01:06:57,044
was February 21st, 2025. There are some exceptions. I think they issued two back-to-back

812
01:06:57,044 --> 01:07:01,864
in March of 24. So there are some exceptions to that. Yeah, you have to get a waiver if you're

813
01:07:01,864 --> 01:07:06,224
going to do that. So it is possible to issue them in succession, but you probably have to have like

814
01:07:06,224 --> 01:07:10,684
joint buyers that are that are buying those bonds where they're okay with you issuing two right in

815
01:07:10,684 --> 01:07:14,644
a row. Like you might be a buyer in each of the bonds if you want to stack out your maturities

816
01:07:14,644 --> 01:07:19,404
or whatever you're doing. So but yeah, so they can get a waiver and issue two in close succession.

817
01:07:19,404 --> 01:07:23,784
But the standard is 60 days after the last one before they're allowed to go issue another one.

818
01:07:23,784 --> 01:07:38,864
Yep. And the two most recent, the biggest ones, so you got a 5 billion that's trading now. And as the price is around this $400 range, you're now entering this high gamma zone where a lot of the ARB trading is happening.

819
01:07:38,864 --> 01:07:53,064
When the stock was really depressed on these specific convertible bonds, there was less ARB trading happening because the bond was trading as pretty much a bond. And now you're getting into this period where it's like bond and equity.

820
01:07:53,064 --> 01:07:58,564
So you're seeing a lot of trading going back and forth between the ARB.

821
01:08:00,204 --> 01:08:01,284
All right, Dan, you ready?

822
01:08:02,404 --> 01:08:02,704
Yeah.

823
01:08:03,144 --> 01:08:03,524
All right.

824
01:08:04,204 --> 01:08:08,884
We're talking about strike, so we can talk just strike weekly volume if that's interesting for people.

825
01:08:08,884 --> 01:08:09,364
Let's hit it.

826
01:08:09,444 --> 01:08:10,384
Yeah, I love it.

827
01:08:11,124 --> 01:08:14,884
So strike volume, I've denominated this in dollars as opposed to shares.

828
01:08:15,004 --> 01:08:17,024
It's easier to kind of look at.

829
01:08:17,184 --> 01:08:20,964
And these are the Mondays of each of the weeks since strike ATM started trading.

830
01:08:20,964 --> 01:08:26,824
and you can see the strike ATM usage here. And those should be in dollars. I apologize.

831
01:08:27,364 --> 01:08:29,324
Can you throw some commas in there? Yeah, there you go.

832
01:08:29,764 --> 01:08:33,124
Yeah, those should be in dollars. And this is a percentage of the weekly volume.

833
01:08:33,964 --> 01:08:38,824
So because the strike is a function of the liquidation preference, interest rates,

834
01:08:40,144 --> 01:08:46,724
the credit worthiness of strategies, capital stack, you can issue strike at a really high

835
01:08:46,724 --> 01:08:55,524
percentage of the total traded volume without diluting or putting a lot of downward pressure

836
01:08:55,524 --> 01:09:02,524
on the SDRK equity price. We've seen SDRK just go up a ton in value over the past few weeks.

837
01:09:03,204 --> 01:09:10,964
And you can see there's been 30, 35, 43% of the traded volume issued in SDRK ATM. So what that

838
01:09:10,964 --> 01:09:15,644
shows you is strategy is doing everything they can to get this out the door as quick as possible.

839
01:09:15,644 --> 01:09:24,644
And I think the demand continues to creep up with the most recent ATM being 60 million, which is about 10% of last week's Class A ATM.

840
01:09:24,784 --> 01:09:38,004
So I think it's quite good for the long-term prospects of collateralizing the balance sheet and using a preferred ATM to acquire BTC per share for the Class A holders.

841
01:09:38,144 --> 01:09:39,024
But it's just taking time.

842
01:09:39,164 --> 01:09:41,644
It's not an overnight process, unfortunately.

843
01:09:41,904 --> 01:09:43,464
So is that volume up to date?

844
01:09:43,464 --> 01:09:46,504
Is it as of today, the 21st or May 19th?

845
01:09:47,284 --> 01:09:50,624
This one here, this May 19th is as of today.

846
01:09:50,884 --> 01:09:51,024
Yeah.

847
01:09:51,164 --> 01:09:53,464
So that's the three trading days, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday.

848
01:09:54,064 --> 01:09:54,324
Got it.

849
01:09:54,904 --> 01:09:55,084
Yeah.

850
01:09:55,564 --> 01:09:57,844
Then obviously we haven't seen the ATM this week.

851
01:09:58,104 --> 01:09:59,224
So unfortunately we don't.

852
01:09:59,644 --> 01:10:01,964
So we're on track to do more volume than last week,

853
01:10:02,364 --> 01:10:05,484
depending on how we finish Thursday and Friday.

854
01:10:06,024 --> 01:10:06,244
Okay.

855
01:10:06,584 --> 01:10:09,144
Let's do a quick primer on strike, right?

856
01:10:09,224 --> 01:10:10,504
What is strike?

857
01:10:10,504 --> 01:10:18,924
Strike is a perpetual convertible preferred stock.

858
01:10:19,924 --> 01:10:24,284
Strike itself, here, let's pop this down.

859
01:10:26,364 --> 01:10:29,544
Perpetual preferred convertible stock.

860
01:10:30,144 --> 01:10:32,444
Convertible perpetual preferred stock.

861
01:10:32,664 --> 01:10:34,124
Perpetual convertible preferred stock.

862
01:10:34,324 --> 01:10:35,904
It's one of those.

863
01:10:35,984 --> 01:10:36,684
It's in that order.

864
01:10:36,684 --> 01:10:42,164
And what that means is preferred stock, it sits higher on the capital stack in liquidation

865
01:10:42,164 --> 01:10:50,924
preference. So in the event of a bankruptcy, the holders of debt, debt instruments get paid out

866
01:10:50,924 --> 01:10:56,204
first before common stockholders get paid out. So this is a preferred instrument. So it shifts

867
01:10:56,204 --> 01:11:00,944
higher up on the capital stack, which reduces the risk of holding that specific instrument.

868
01:11:00,944 --> 01:11:09,404
strike itself pays an eight dollar per share dividend so at a price of a hundred dollars

869
01:11:09,404 --> 01:11:15,764
it's paying an eight percent annual yield as the price of the strike you know moves around

870
01:11:15,764 --> 01:11:22,364
that relative yield also moves around and uh the interesting thing about strike is

871
01:11:22,364 --> 01:11:33,344
10 shares of strike can convert into one share of MSTR. So you've got multiple components that can

872
01:11:33,344 --> 01:11:38,464
move the underlying price of strike. You can have interest rates move the underlying price of strike

873
01:11:38,464 --> 01:11:44,764
where if interest rates drop, this product looks extremely more attractive. So the price would go

874
01:11:44,764 --> 01:11:51,044
up. Vice versa, if interest rates rise, the relative interest rate on this would look less

875
01:11:51,044 --> 01:11:57,224
attractive. So the price would fall similar to like a bond. Now the really interesting component

876
01:11:57,224 --> 01:12:04,064
is it's got this convertibility, which has the ability to move with the price of the underlying

877
01:12:04,064 --> 01:12:08,704
equity. So as the price of the underlying equity goes up, the conversion value, the conversion

878
01:12:08,704 --> 01:12:12,224
premium goes up. So the underlying price of strike would go up too. So you effectively,

879
01:12:12,544 --> 01:12:18,624
you get this free call option. You get, and as of today with the price trading at a hundred dollars,

880
01:12:18,624 --> 01:12:25,584
like right at par you get eight percent annual yield and effectively a free call option dan and

881
01:12:25,584 --> 01:12:30,624
i explored this uh about two weeks ago we've got a piece of content out and we'll maybe reshare it

882
01:12:30,624 --> 01:12:34,624
after this so if you're interested we kind of walk through all of the dynamics so that that's the

883
01:12:34,624 --> 01:12:42,464
baseline there and uh and maybe we'll jump into this because i calculated and went and compared

884
01:12:42,464 --> 01:12:48,464
strike to a piece of real estate and i'll share my screen i walk through it i'll walk through

885
01:12:48,464 --> 01:12:56,144
analysis i did just out of curiosity maybe i'll zoom in a little bit can you guys see this

886
01:12:56,944 --> 01:13:01,504
yes it is interesting when you think about strike if you kind of take the price of it and you back

887
01:13:01,504 --> 01:13:08,944
out the component that's allocated to common stock so 10 of a share of strategy stock so call it 40

888
01:13:08,944 --> 01:13:16,944
right now. So you can look at it and the yield on the cash actually looks a lot better because

889
01:13:16,944 --> 01:13:25,224
you're essentially getting an $8 dividend on call it $60 value because the other $40 is actual

890
01:13:25,224 --> 01:13:30,284
shares of common stock. So it's a really interesting product when you break down the

891
01:13:30,284 --> 01:13:33,784
way that it works. And I think that's why they're so confident that it's going to be so popular.

892
01:13:34,144 --> 01:13:38,884
And you're seeing it now because clearly there's demand for it that pushed it up over a hundred

893
01:13:38,884 --> 01:13:40,524
and you can be sure they're using the ATM.

894
01:13:40,844 --> 01:13:42,524
But as we've talked about before,

895
01:13:42,524 --> 01:13:45,044
this is one of those where it's a self-healing product

896
01:13:45,044 --> 01:13:48,524
because if you use the ATM and it does drive it down,

897
01:13:48,864 --> 01:13:50,804
the yield starts to rise

898
01:13:50,804 --> 01:13:52,684
and people start coming in and the demand raises

899
01:13:52,684 --> 01:13:54,404
and it comes back up to the market value.

900
01:13:55,444 --> 01:13:56,824
But the other thing is,

901
01:13:56,904 --> 01:13:58,544
while it doesn't have really high liquidity,

902
01:13:58,684 --> 01:14:00,664
a lot of that ATM is probably being issued

903
01:14:00,664 --> 01:14:01,704
through block trades,

904
01:14:01,884 --> 01:14:03,484
which is essentially big buyers

905
01:14:03,484 --> 01:14:04,804
that are calling up saying,

906
01:14:04,944 --> 01:14:06,504
hey, I want, you know.

907
01:14:07,284 --> 01:14:08,624
50 million, 100 million.

908
01:14:08,624 --> 01:14:38,304
Yeah, I want 50 million of this. And then they're issuing that in one block trade so that they're not moving the market and they agree on pricing for that block. So that's probably how a lot of the ATM is actually being done on this product as it's scaling and you're growing that liquidity because you really don't want to be hitting the market too hard with any type of an ATM product. So I would guess that a lot of this is getting traded through blocks at the moment. But it is a really unique product. And I think the markets, it's going to take a little bit to get smart on it on just how good it is, particularly if you want

909
01:14:38,304 --> 01:14:43,984
protected downside and being higher in the capital structure, which is really important to some of

910
01:14:43,984 --> 01:14:48,384
these really big investors or people that are trying to diversify the risk profile in their

911
01:14:48,384 --> 01:14:52,724
portfolio. So it's a really cool product. So I think that we're going to see this scale pretty

912
01:14:52,724 --> 01:14:56,684
quickly here because it's clear that with the pricing and the way that it's been moving,

913
01:14:56,784 --> 01:14:59,064
people are catching on and they're moving a lot of these shares.

914
01:15:00,684 --> 01:15:06,824
Exactly. And I'm about to rip into it on why to buy strike over real estate. So over here on the

915
01:15:06,824 --> 01:15:11,904
left-hand side, this is a real estate calculation, first of all. And then over here under the orange,

916
01:15:12,044 --> 01:15:16,444
this is the strike calculation. So on first blush, when you're just looking at this without

917
01:15:16,444 --> 01:15:20,624
even looking at the numbers, real estate on the left-hand side, complicated, a lot of things going

918
01:15:20,624 --> 01:15:28,624
on. Strike in the middle, not complicated, very simple. And that will play out here. So I put out

919
01:15:28,624 --> 01:15:35,164
a $500,000 home price and assumed you put down a 20% down payment. So you've got $100,000 down

920
01:15:35,164 --> 01:15:41,804
payment and you took on leverage on this property. So you have a loan of $400,000 and let's just say

921
01:15:41,804 --> 01:15:46,644
an interest rate of seven, which is the current interest rate. So you've got all of your monthly

922
01:15:46,644 --> 01:15:51,124
expenses here, principal and interest, property tax, maintenance, repairs, utilities, vacancy

923
01:15:51,124 --> 01:15:57,184
allowance, property management, insurance, et cetera. So you've got monthly expenses of $4,400

924
01:15:57,184 --> 01:16:03,764
taking the 1% income rule, assuming you get 1% of revenue from this property, you get $5,000 in

925
01:16:03,764 --> 01:16:10,164
door a month. And we'll come back to this vacancy in a minute. So on the year, on a net basis,

926
01:16:10,164 --> 01:16:16,404
you're going to yield $7,000 a year. That gets taxed at your ordinary income tax rate. So your

927
01:16:16,404 --> 01:16:21,444
yearly net, maybe $4,500. So you've got a down payment of a hundred thousand dollars. Your cash

928
01:16:21,444 --> 01:16:26,964
on cash return is that net $4,500 relative to the down payment. So about 4.6%.

929
01:16:26,964 --> 01:16:32,484
compare that to strike right same principle you got a hundred thousand dollar principle

930
01:16:33,284 --> 01:16:36,644
the current price is a hundred dollars yield is eight dollars per share so you're getting eight

931
01:16:36,644 --> 01:16:42,724
percent here expenses are zero annual yield is eight thousand dollars your tax assuming this is

932
01:16:42,724 --> 01:16:48,724
a qualified dividend which i think all data that i've reviewed so far is that this is going to

933
01:16:48,724 --> 01:16:53,364
qualify as a qualified dividend so you get taxed at a preferable long-term capital gain treatment

934
01:16:53,364 --> 01:17:00,604
which would be 15%, which is a huge benefit. Your net, this is not financial advice. I don't think

935
01:17:00,604 --> 01:17:04,264
that has been confirmed. I don't think that dividend has been paid yet. We will see if it

936
01:17:04,264 --> 01:17:11,964
will be qualified. So on a net basis, that'd be $6,800. And yes, somebody said I'm leaving out

937
01:17:11,964 --> 01:17:16,604
the tax write-off, but we'll get back to that. And net cash on cash return is 6.8%.

938
01:17:16,604 --> 01:17:34,894
Now I want to look at this on a 10 basis Like okay there multiple things playing out care right You got two different instruments You got Strike and you got real estate And you got to think about compound annual growth rate So Strike I assumed let assume Strike has a compound annual growth

939
01:17:34,894 --> 01:17:39,654
rate of 30. Strike will have a compound annual growth rate very similar to MSTR once the price

940
01:17:39,654 --> 01:17:46,274
of MSTR is over a thousand. So it may have a similar upside to Bitcoin, nearly Bitcoin upside,

941
01:17:46,274 --> 01:17:51,274
maybe even potentially more. So you think about a compound annual growth rate of 30 may be very

942
01:17:51,274 --> 01:17:57,794
realistic. It may be low. Principal, $100,000 yield 8%. And assuming on the real estate,

943
01:17:57,894 --> 01:18:01,714
you've got a three and a half percent compound annual growth rate, $100,000 principal,

944
01:18:02,474 --> 01:18:07,634
your yield being 5% and your rental rate increase every year of 10%. You know,

945
01:18:07,694 --> 01:18:09,834
just got to make some base assumptions. So we walk through this.

946
01:18:11,154 --> 01:18:14,294
So if you look at this on a 10 year performance basis, your principal,

947
01:18:14,294 --> 01:18:19,754
if you held it in strike, grows from $100,000 to 1.06 million with a 30% compound annual growth

948
01:18:19,754 --> 01:18:25,314
rate. And you get a yield of $68,000 over that same time horizon. So your total at the end of

949
01:18:25,314 --> 01:18:30,554
year 10 is $1.1 million. Now, under these same assumptions for the real estate performance,

950
01:18:31,514 --> 01:18:36,894
you've got the home prices compounding at 3.5% annually. Your loan balance is going down

951
01:18:36,894 --> 01:18:43,534
at an increasing rate. So your equity is growing and you've got the annual yield that you get

952
01:18:43,534 --> 01:18:50,134
along the way. And so the total in this circumstance is $697,000. Obviously, a lot of

953
01:18:50,134 --> 01:18:56,734
assumptions are going into this. You're assuming everything on the left-hand side with real estate

954
01:18:56,734 --> 01:19:01,394
and all of the expenses, et cetera. Now, the important thing to take into consideration

955
01:19:01,394 --> 01:19:07,214
is all of the risks associated with each of these. So on strike, when you're looking at strike,

956
01:19:07,214 --> 01:19:11,534
what are the risks and how do you quantify and value the risks? You've got collateral risk,

957
01:19:11,534 --> 01:19:15,614
volatility risk, the stodian risk, jurisdictional risk, copycat risk,

958
01:19:16,814 --> 01:19:21,454
and MNAV deterioration. You've got all of these potential risks that you've got to take into

959
01:19:21,454 --> 01:19:25,694
consideration, but they're all digital. These are all real digital risks.

960
01:19:26,414 --> 01:19:32,334
And then you think about the risks of owning the real estate and you look at vacancy, dollar

961
01:19:32,334 --> 01:19:38,174
debasement, catastrophes, insurance rate increases, interest rate risk, liquidity risk,

962
01:19:38,974 --> 01:19:43,854
and population shift, right? Like people just move out of your move out, like you don't get paid.

963
01:19:44,894 --> 01:19:49,374
So that's why I put this other highlighted column in here. This is extended vacancy months. So if

964
01:19:49,374 --> 01:19:56,654
you think you've got just two months of vacancy every year, all of a sudden you're starting to

965
01:19:56,654 --> 01:20:06,494
lose $30,000 on this property because you're from a yield perspective, because you have vacancy risk.

966
01:20:06,494 --> 01:20:14,814
um conversely conversely if your insurance goes up you know it doubles goes to you know your house

967
01:20:14,814 --> 01:20:22,094
burns down uh it goes up by 4x or 5x that cuts into the yield you know all of these things need

968
01:20:22,094 --> 01:20:27,454
to be taken into consideration so when when you're looking at the relativities maybe we'll put this

969
01:20:27,454 --> 01:20:34,014
back to 150. when you're looking at the relativities even if you drop the cagger of strike to 20.

970
01:20:34,014 --> 01:20:42,374
I think a lot of people would say that the next 10 years, strike is probably going to have a

971
01:20:42,374 --> 01:20:46,074
compound annual growth rate greater than 20 because it's following MSTR pretty closely,

972
01:20:46,474 --> 01:20:52,614
unless you're bearish on MSTR, like the recent crowd. That would be a situation where

973
01:20:52,614 --> 01:20:59,414
it maybe made better sense to hold the real estate. But you've got all of these other risks

974
01:20:59,414 --> 01:21:03,194
to take into consideration. So you think about risk-adjusted yield of each of these different

975
01:21:03,194 --> 01:21:08,234
products and how much, how many units of risk do I want to take into consideration relative to the,

976
01:21:10,234 --> 01:21:14,474
the principle. Okay. Pause there. Any questions?

977
01:21:16,954 --> 01:21:19,354
No, you also got to put the time into the real estate.

978
01:21:20,154 --> 01:21:25,754
Time. The amount of actual man hours that it's going to take to manage all of that. I mean,

979
01:21:26,794 --> 01:21:32,474
you know, being able to free up your time is a real gift. And now being able to have all these

980
01:21:32,474 --> 01:21:38,874
unique products that provide people with really unique opportunities to tailor a portfolio is

981
01:21:38,874 --> 01:21:43,594
going to be huge for a lot of people that don't want to spend the time managing portfolios of

982
01:21:43,594 --> 01:21:49,674
real estate and chasing around tenants and doing repairs on damage and and all the things that come

983
01:21:49,674 --> 01:21:55,754
along with it because you know while the appreciation has been really good historically

984
01:21:55,754 --> 01:21:59,994
and it used to be kind of that you know i viewed it as a really good investment for a lot of people

985
01:21:59,994 --> 01:22:04,474
particularly in the early days because it was kind of a forced savings account because it's not all

986
01:22:04,474 --> 01:22:08,714
that liquid so that appreciation could build up you're not just going to offload it and it's not

987
01:22:08,714 --> 01:22:13,354
something that you can just trade in and out of right there's some friction there to getting out

988
01:22:13,354 --> 01:22:19,914
of there and to accessing that liquidity but now that you've got opportunities here for cash flowing

989
01:22:19,914 --> 01:22:26,954
assets where you can very clearly define what your risks are and you can monitor them in real time

990
01:22:26,954 --> 01:22:32,474
because you know with a product like strike where you stand in the capital structure you know how

991
01:22:32,474 --> 01:22:37,114
over collateralized they are at any given point in time you can monitor that and you can make

992
01:22:37,114 --> 01:22:42,554
adjustments if and when things do change and so you've got the ultimate in flexibility and you

993
01:22:42,554 --> 01:22:48,234
get to be hands off so you get your time back and i think that's a very underrated benefit

994
01:22:48,954 --> 01:22:53,114
to a lot of these products when you compare it to something like real estate that requires a

995
01:22:53,114 --> 01:22:59,114
a significant amount of time and effort to do right and to do well. So it's, you know, all these

996
01:22:59,114 --> 01:23:03,754
things are being enabled by Bitcoin and the unique characteristics that Bitcoin brings into the

997
01:23:03,754 --> 01:23:10,614
markets. And, you know, when you found out that this was strategy using AI tools to create really

998
01:23:10,614 --> 01:23:14,214
cool products, you can just imagine what's going to come next, because there's going to be more

999
01:23:14,214 --> 01:23:18,654
companies offering different flavors of these types of products. And you're going to have

1000
01:23:18,654 --> 01:23:24,094
different collateralization profiles and different risk returns so you can really customize and if

1001
01:23:24,094 --> 01:23:28,734
you're looking to build that cash flow which a lot of people are right it's clearly a very hot topic

1002
01:23:28,734 --> 01:23:35,694
because msty really exploded in popularity which told you that people are looking for income income

1003
01:23:35,694 --> 01:23:40,894
imst is another one we'll find out what their dividend looks like tomorrow and so you'll see

1004
01:23:40,894 --> 01:23:45,054
how that one's performing and then you've got these which are going to be really stable over

1005
01:23:45,054 --> 01:23:50,894
collateralized you get to watch them it's very underrated in my opinion it's very it's very

1006
01:23:50,894 --> 01:23:55,694
liquid strike is not going to have a leaky roof and strike is also not going to have property taxes

1007
01:23:55,694 --> 01:24:02,574
that go up in perpetuity so there there's all kinds of um ways to look at this to your point

1008
01:24:02,574 --> 01:24:08,094
you could simplify it into just how many ways can get screwed right like okay in real estate i could

1009
01:24:08,094 --> 01:24:15,734
could get screwed way more ways probably than you could get screwed with strike and it's not liquid

1010
01:24:15,734 --> 01:24:23,374
right um i mean even yeah if you needed to get out of something that's like okay well now i got

1011
01:24:23,374 --> 01:24:30,754
to go get an inspection i got to pay cost to sell the property i've got to you know replace a window

1012
01:24:30,754 --> 01:24:35,454
i've got to do all this stuff to make it you know put the lipstick on a pig and and oh it turns out

1013
01:24:35,454 --> 01:24:39,854
actually Amazon is making all of their people go back to work.

1014
01:24:39,854 --> 01:24:42,134
So nobody actually wants to live in my area anymore.

1015
01:24:42,134 --> 01:24:43,494
Nobody's moving back out to the burps.

1016
01:24:43,494 --> 01:24:45,334
You know, like you've got all of these potential

1017
01:24:45,334 --> 01:24:46,534
all kinds of ways it can go wrong.

1018
01:24:46,534 --> 01:24:50,034
You just get screwed everywhere, everywhere.

1019
01:24:50,794 --> 01:24:53,774
Or you can just hold strike, get the money, stay liquid and

1020
01:24:54,614 --> 01:24:57,414
not financial advice, but which is which is great.

1021
01:24:57,414 --> 01:24:59,514
I feel like this is great for humanity, right?

1022
01:24:59,514 --> 01:25:03,954
Like there's unaffordability everywhere.

1023
01:25:03,954 --> 01:25:10,114
rampant because so much capital is just flooded into real estate as a store of value.

1024
01:25:12,114 --> 01:25:16,354
And they're not actually using it. And it really, really strips out the

1025
01:25:17,234 --> 01:25:22,594
store of value nature of real estate over time. It'll take a century maybe, you know,

1026
01:25:23,234 --> 01:25:28,114
but it will really boil down to like utility value. Maybe you don't need that third or fourth home

1027
01:25:28,114 --> 01:25:33,954
because you know bitcoin or bitcoin related equities or perpetual preferred stock is a

1028
01:25:33,954 --> 01:25:39,874
better place to hold that into perpetuity than um you know that third or fourth house that you may

1029
01:25:39,874 --> 01:25:46,754
have had just to store five million bucks or whatever but yeah and this dynamic like with a

1030
01:25:46,754 --> 01:25:51,634
professional with the perpetual preferred stock you're really picking between perpetual preferred

1031
01:25:51,634 --> 01:25:57,234
stock and perpetual incurred costs with real estate and what i mean by that is back to the

1032
01:25:57,234 --> 01:26:01,634
property tax example you're going to have property tax in perpetuity and it's only going to go up

1033
01:26:01,634 --> 01:26:08,754
over time right so do you does someone make the decision to your point that you know everyone's

1034
01:26:08,754 --> 01:26:13,634
been using real estate it's kind of like a savings account essentially essentially for the last 50 60

1035
01:26:13,634 --> 01:26:19,394
probably even longer than that 50 years if you remove that dynamic and now you have other

1036
01:26:19,394 --> 01:26:26,034
vehicles where people can actually put capital into get return on investment get their appreciation

1037
01:26:26,034 --> 01:26:31,714
without the the costs that exist in perpetuity with real estate maintenance costs property taxes

1038
01:26:31,714 --> 01:26:36,114
the list goes on and on that we just talked through i i think it does change the dynamic

1039
01:26:36,114 --> 01:26:40,274
quite a lot when it comes to how people view their money and their relationship with money

1040
01:26:40,274 --> 01:26:45,954
and the ways that they can live live um into the future real estate no longer becomes a default

1041
01:26:45,954 --> 01:26:52,114
savings mechanism these passive bitcoin investments do right right that's exactly it and you've got

1042
01:26:52,114 --> 01:27:02,834
the the new uh efficient frontier right uh shall we shift gears i wanted to talk on s p 500 potential

1043
01:27:02,834 --> 01:27:09,234
inclusion earnings q2 uh maybe i'll bring my screen back up uh because this is a big deal

1044
01:27:09,954 --> 01:27:13,634
first of all i'm gonna look at the scale of bitcoin treasury companies because i think this

1045
01:27:13,634 --> 01:27:19,234
is important too this is this represents all bitcoin treasury companies uh or at least the

1046
01:27:19,234 --> 01:27:24,194
next 10. So this is the top 11 Bitcoin treasury companies. You got MSTR over on the left-hand side,

1047
01:27:25,154 --> 01:27:31,954
holds 576,230 Bitcoin. Each square represents a thousand Bitcoin. The representation over

1048
01:27:31,954 --> 01:27:37,314
on the right-hand side, this is the next 10 closest companies holding 171,000 Bitcoin combined.

1049
01:27:37,314 --> 01:27:41,554
So this is just a visual representation of these are all of the companies. It's how much Bitcoin

1050
01:27:41,554 --> 01:27:48,994
they hold. Just to show on a relative scale here of the moat, right? This is an enormous

1051
01:27:48,994 --> 01:27:58,034
moat and the number of companies with the cash or capital to potentially capture MSTR moving forward

1052
01:27:59,074 --> 01:28:03,874
is very, very limited. I think there might be one company in the world that's got enough net cash

1053
01:28:03,874 --> 01:28:08,034
on balance sheet to potentially buy as much Bitcoin as MSTR holds. Whereas you look at all

1054
01:28:08,034 --> 01:28:13,794
of these other companies and there are hundreds, if not thousands with net cash on balance sheet,

1055
01:28:13,794 --> 01:28:21,794
they could buy 2,000, 3,000, 7,000 Bitcoin in a couple of purchases.

1056
01:28:24,434 --> 01:28:29,314
Now let's get into earnings estimates. So this is Q2 MSDR earnings analysis pro forma. So Bitcoin

1057
01:28:29,314 --> 01:28:37,954
price as of today, 110,000. Bitcoin price at close of Q2 is 82,000. So the Bitcoin held from Q1,

1058
01:28:37,954 --> 01:28:44,374
they're looking at about $14.5 billion gain on the Bitcoin held from Q1. They also purchased

1059
01:28:44,374 --> 01:28:53,234
more Bitcoin here in Q2, about 48,000 Bitcoin. The purchases already made in Q2 are already in

1060
01:28:53,234 --> 01:28:57,034
a profit position of $736 million. So the total gain held on balance sheet is about,

1061
01:28:57,034 --> 01:29:01,494
the total gain for Q2 on an estimated basis would be about $15.2 billion.

1062
01:29:02,454 --> 01:29:08,774
the net loss in Q1 or the net loss of the last four quarters was $5.3 billion. So they would

1063
01:29:08,774 --> 01:29:13,414
clear the hurdle for positive earnings over the last four quarters by about $9.8, almost $10 billion,

1064
01:29:14,054 --> 01:29:21,974
which would then qualify them for the S&P 500. Again, they have never qualified for the S&P 500.

1065
01:29:24,294 --> 01:29:28,054
Over the last 300 days, they've qualified from a market cap perspective, but they haven't qualified

1066
01:29:28,054 --> 01:29:35,194
from this earning perspective. And I think this will, at the close of Q2, which is coming very

1067
01:29:35,194 --> 01:29:42,754
soon, end of June 30, they will report an earnings, depends on what the price of Bitcoin is at the end

1068
01:29:42,754 --> 01:29:47,094
of June, they will have an earnings report in August. And I think that will result in significant

1069
01:29:47,094 --> 01:29:50,554
confusion in the market where the market's trying to reprice what's going on,

1070
01:29:51,214 --> 01:29:55,214
trying to put this relative to the other companies in the equity market.

1071
01:29:58,054 --> 01:30:08,054
And yeah, if you look at the S and P 500 has an average P ratio of 26 QQQ average P ratio of 35,

1072
01:30:08,054 --> 01:30:12,214
max seven average P ratio of 31. This is an average. So there are some with significantly

1073
01:30:12,214 --> 01:30:18,134
higher P ratios. Um, if you hold the P ratios constant in that perspective, you're looking at

1074
01:30:18,134 --> 01:30:22,934
a price, uh, significantly higher than where we are. So from a value perspective, comparing this

1075
01:30:22,934 --> 01:30:27,094
to the rest of the market, there is, uh, there's significant balance sheet strength,

1076
01:30:27,094 --> 01:30:31,654
significant growth on the balance sheet. Bitcoin continues to be added to the balance sheet. This

1077
01:30:31,654 --> 01:30:39,734
is an operating company. It's not a closed end fund. And yeah, I think we're going higher from here.

1078
01:30:42,394 --> 01:30:44,814
Dan, Adrian, Ben, any points to add?

1079
01:30:46,974 --> 01:30:50,874
I'm over here scrolling down the S&P 500 list to find out

1080
01:30:50,874 --> 01:30:55,234
where that gain, just the gain alone would put them on the list.

1081
01:30:55,234 --> 01:31:03,254
it's like it's top five it's top five no no just in terms of like the market cap of companies in

1082
01:31:03,254 --> 01:31:10,354
the s&p 500 yeah yeah what was the gain there that you had uh 15 billion well you had nine or

1083
01:31:10,354 --> 01:31:17,654
so or was that the net nine was the net over the last four quarters so q2 net income of 15.2 billion

1084
01:31:17,654 --> 01:31:23,414
So 15.2 would put them at 421.

1085
01:31:24,194 --> 01:31:30,254
So their net income potentially in Q2 would qualify for the S&P 500.

1086
01:31:32,274 --> 01:31:33,694
That's pretty crazy.

1087
01:31:33,894 --> 01:31:38,834
And then even the 9.7 or whatever it was is like 477.

1088
01:31:39,334 --> 01:31:39,674
Yeah.

1089
01:31:40,194 --> 01:31:40,634
Wow.

1090
01:31:40,774 --> 01:31:41,974
So pretty crazy, right?

1091
01:31:42,014 --> 01:31:46,614
I mean, these numbers, we get so numb to them because we look at this stuff all day long

1092
01:31:46,614 --> 01:31:51,274
that you don't realize how baffling some of these gains are like the size of the capital that's

1093
01:31:51,274 --> 01:31:57,714
moving around here is just absolutely incredible it's it's a it's a steamroller the size of

1094
01:31:57,714 --> 01:32:03,754
you know the empire state building right like it's going to move a little bit slower but once

1095
01:32:03,754 --> 01:32:07,854
that thing gets cooking like watch out right like this is this is taking over everything

1096
01:32:07,854 --> 01:32:13,854
uh i also did some interesting analysis on comps in the sp500 and i mean you can't see shit here

1097
01:32:13,854 --> 01:32:23,374
but basically there's two companies with a market cap over a hundred billion dollars,

1098
01:32:24,094 --> 01:32:29,054
right? There's two companies with a market cap over a hundred billion dollars that are not

1099
01:32:29,054 --> 01:32:37,454
in the S&P 500. It's Apple 11 and MSDR. And so that just goes to show you every other company

1100
01:32:37,454 --> 01:32:41,934
that has above a hundred billion dollar market cap has the passive flows of the S&P 500.

1101
01:32:41,934 --> 01:32:45,094
That's why they're up there.

1102
01:32:45,094 --> 01:32:47,134
That's why they're $100 billion companies.

1103
01:32:47,134 --> 01:32:59,744
And now it really fascinating when you see the relativity of these two companies that aren even included yet There probably some front running going Obviously retail is front running this but I think there mass confusion in the market And I think it going to be hard for the S 500

1104
01:32:59,744 --> 01:33:05,804
committee, particularly if Bitcoin continues to rip and these numbers get astronomically large.

1105
01:33:05,944 --> 01:33:11,164
I think it's going to be hard for the S&P committee to exclude them from the S&P 500.

1106
01:33:11,164 --> 01:33:13,824
And they probably will get excluded first go around.

1107
01:33:14,364 --> 01:33:21,404
But I think the bewilderment will take a hold and Larry Fink will give a call and they'll eventually get included.

1108
01:33:23,124 --> 01:33:23,744
Go ahead.

1109
01:33:24,244 --> 01:33:25,544
Yeah, I'm inclined to agree.

1110
01:33:25,684 --> 01:33:37,484
And also, coming back to like if we just go back to the conversation we had earlier in the call about market sentiment, I think people are really grossly underestimating just how much this will do for sentiment once they are included in the S&P 500.

1111
01:33:37,484 --> 01:33:53,904
Just imagine the dynamics that come into play when a levered Bitcoin play essentially, I don't want to say forces their way into the S&P 500, but it kind of takes it by storm and goes from a $1 billion company to over $100 billion company.

1112
01:33:54,744 --> 01:33:56,744
And now they're in the S&P 500.

1113
01:33:56,904 --> 01:33:58,484
Now they're getting additional passive flows.

1114
01:33:58,764 --> 01:34:05,104
I think market perception and market sentiment are going to start taking up in that kind of a dynamic is what my guess is.

1115
01:34:05,104 --> 01:34:08,164
with front running and then after inclusion.

1116
01:34:09,364 --> 01:34:11,824
I do also see a lot of comments asking,

1117
01:34:11,924 --> 01:34:13,684
is this just balance sheet appreciation

1118
01:34:13,684 --> 01:34:15,344
that doesn't hit the income statement?

1119
01:34:15,344 --> 01:34:17,324
The way that the accounting rules work now

1120
01:34:17,324 --> 01:34:19,104
is that change in the fair market value

1121
01:34:19,104 --> 01:34:20,424
does hit the income statement.

1122
01:34:21,264 --> 01:34:23,364
So this will be reported through the income statement,

1123
01:34:23,424 --> 01:34:24,944
which is why we're looking at it as earnings

1124
01:34:24,944 --> 01:34:26,204
because that's how it'll be reflected.

1125
01:34:27,224 --> 01:34:27,664
Right.

1126
01:34:27,864 --> 01:34:29,824
This is FASB fair value accounting,

1127
01:34:30,004 --> 01:34:32,364
which they adopted for the first time in Q1.

1128
01:34:32,364 --> 01:34:41,484
just the way that the price of Bitcoin fell. I think it ended Q4 at $94,000, ended Q1 at $84,000.

1129
01:34:41,484 --> 01:34:45,584
So it was just another extended quarter of bewilderment of people, right? That's where

1130
01:34:45,584 --> 01:34:53,384
we saw 82,000% miss on earnings estimate. And it can be the complete opposite, but to the positive

1131
01:34:53,384 --> 01:35:01,004
degree for the first time in the last five years. And there's been so much negative press every time

1132
01:35:01,004 --> 01:35:06,044
you know, and earnings has come out. It's just been seeking alpha, Forbes, you know, negative

1133
01:35:06,044 --> 01:35:09,544
press, negative press, negative press. And it's so funny. You go look through the articles,

1134
01:35:09,664 --> 01:35:12,764
they had no mention of FASB fair value accounting. They look at the software business,

1135
01:35:12,864 --> 01:35:18,964
don't even mention Bitcoin, don't even understand what's going on. And this is a really significant

1136
01:35:18,964 --> 01:35:25,144
event. I think this is the biggest story of 2025. I mean, MetaPlanet is making a run for

1137
01:35:25,144 --> 01:35:29,624
the biggest story of 2025. If they like kill the Japanese bond market and everything blows up

1138
01:35:29,624 --> 01:35:33,864
because of MetaPlanet. I mean, that's an enormous story right there in itself. But

1139
01:35:33,864 --> 01:35:40,384
if they get included in the S&P 500, that is an enormous story. The largest Bitcoin treasury on

1140
01:35:40,384 --> 01:35:44,484
the planet that holds $60 billion of Bitcoin, probably to be 100 billion at that point,

1141
01:35:45,344 --> 01:35:52,584
is added to the S&P 500. Credit quality goes up. Access to capital goes up. ATM ability goes up

1142
01:35:52,584 --> 01:35:57,964
because you have passive flows. Everybody and their mother that has a 401k has exposure to S&P

1143
01:35:57,964 --> 01:36:05,244
500 and that's passive zombie money that's coming in the door and nobody even knows right they don't

1144
01:36:05,244 --> 01:36:11,644
even know that they hold microstrategy strategy right my favorite is that with these earnings

1145
01:36:11,644 --> 01:36:17,324
when they have those misses you know where they missed earnings by 85 200 or whatever it was

1146
01:36:17,324 --> 01:36:22,444
there's no follow-up to figure out why no like that's just the headline and the analysts shrug

1147
01:36:22,444 --> 01:36:27,324
it off and like well we were wrong you know by a little bit i guess you know 85 000

1148
01:36:27,964 --> 01:36:31,604
And it's going to keep happening for a while, but this is absolutely the story.

1149
01:36:31,804 --> 01:36:36,844
You know, whether the story is microstrategy or not, the story is definitely Bitcoin treasury

1150
01:36:36,844 --> 01:36:37,424
companies.

1151
01:36:37,924 --> 01:36:38,464
Yeah, for sure.

1152
01:36:38,564 --> 01:36:42,484
2025 is undoubtedly the year of the Bitcoin treasury.

1153
01:36:42,584 --> 01:36:42,964
Hell yeah.

1154
01:36:43,604 --> 01:36:48,664
And the outperformance because of the strength that Bitcoin's showing amongst weakness everywhere

1155
01:36:48,664 --> 01:36:52,444
else in the global markets is just going to really amplify that message.

1156
01:36:52,444 --> 01:37:01,444
So anyone who is still asleep at the wheel that's not paying attention to Bitcoin as an asset class, not paying attention to Bitcoin as an asset class, not paying attention to Bitcoin as an asset class, not paying attention to Bitcoin as an asset class.

1157
01:37:01,444 --> 01:37:05,244
That aren't outing Bitcoin for their own personal balance sheet.

1158
01:37:05,564 --> 01:37:11,324
This is the year that that message is going to get deafeningly loud and people are going to pay attention.

1159
01:37:11,684 --> 01:37:18,704
And I think that, you know, these new all time highs that we're seeing is just going to amplify that message and accelerate this thing.

1160
01:37:18,704 --> 01:37:23,404
Keep in mind that a lot of these buyers that are coming into the market, they're long only buyers.

1161
01:37:24,364 --> 01:37:31,484
So you've got this structural bid building up underneath Bitcoin that any of these traders or sellers have to compete with now.

1162
01:37:31,544 --> 01:37:38,424
It takes a lot more sell pressure to exhaust these buyers because now they're bringing in by the billions of dollars.

1163
01:37:38,864 --> 01:37:47,784
And you keep seeing more and more and more of these companies coming in and building a bigger and bigger structural bid underneath Bitcoin because they're not all buying at one point in time.

1164
01:37:47,784 --> 01:37:51,624
it's consistent now. Now you've always got someone in the market raising money,

1165
01:37:51,624 --> 01:37:57,704
buying Bitcoin with it globally, not just in the US markets. So it's creating this really

1166
01:37:58,824 --> 01:38:04,344
crazy dynamic out there that's putting such a strong bid on Bitcoin that you just have such

1167
01:38:04,344 --> 01:38:09,944
a hard time seeing this getting some massive drawdown now because you have so many buyers

1168
01:38:09,944 --> 01:38:15,464
that are there to absorb it. So obviously anything can happen. And if the markets get really thin,

1169
01:38:15,464 --> 01:38:21,304
volatility can spike for sure it can become more volatile than less volatile if the trading gets

1170
01:38:21,304 --> 01:38:26,824
really thin because it's all gonna change hands at the margins but you know you it's just such a

1171
01:38:26,824 --> 01:38:32,184
strong bid now that i have a hard time particularly in the short term seeing this thing slowing down

1172
01:38:32,184 --> 01:38:35,784
i think we're gonna have a really awesome summer here i think it's gonna be a ton of fun

1173
01:38:36,744 --> 01:38:41,304
yeah i i agree um that's what i was talking about earlier i don't see that 80 drawdown coming in the

1174
01:38:41,304 --> 01:38:47,144
the market with all these different players um in it it just i just don't see how it happens in the

1175
01:38:47,144 --> 01:38:51,864
same way and bitcoin also just crossed 111 for a little bit on coinbase so i just want to point

1176
01:38:51,864 --> 01:38:58,664
that out for for shits and giggles but um you know to ben's point um and with what i was discussing

1177
01:38:58,664 --> 01:39:04,184
earlier the players that we have in the market right now are fundamentally different than any

1178
01:39:04,184 --> 01:39:10,504
other cycle and the and with regards to the dynamics that creates i don't think it creates

1179
01:39:10,504 --> 01:39:16,184
an event where people are just going to be exiting bitcoin and mass because they're rotating into

1180
01:39:16,184 --> 01:39:21,544
something else everything that is going on right now whether they rotate from one lbe to another

1181
01:39:21,544 --> 01:39:25,864
they're still passive bitcoin buyers right so it's still creating the impetus for upwards buying

1182
01:39:25,864 --> 01:39:30,824
pressure on bitcoin itself regardless of what they rotate into so everything kind of like what soleil

1183
01:39:30,824 --> 01:39:36,264
was talking about becomes a cooperative trade the pressure the pressure remains no matter where they

1184
01:39:36,264 --> 01:39:44,744
go. So the 80% drawdown, I just don't see it. 20, 30, 40, sure. But us going from like, you know,

1185
01:39:45,344 --> 01:39:50,184
200 or 300,000, all the way slamming all the way down to 40 or 50, I just don't see it.

1186
01:39:51,484 --> 01:39:55,844
Yeah. Or you exit and you go into Bitcoin, right? Like it's your safety.

1187
01:39:55,844 --> 01:40:01,004
Exactly. It's up with pressure. You're going from one to the next, but it's all Bitcoin.

1188
01:40:01,004 --> 01:40:20,824
Yeah, there's no running around between altcoins and trying to follow the energy. I mean, there's some similar type energy going on right now with these Bitcoin treasury companies. And I was talking with Grain a little bit earlier before this. And you've got this scenario where people are trading this stuff in their IRAs without incurring taxes.

1189
01:40:20,824 --> 01:40:29,124
So you basically like you've got your capital is in Dubai effectively by being tax advantaged and you can protect it and make trades in and out.

1190
01:40:29,204 --> 01:40:35,624
So you've got capital that's moving quickly and you've got a lot of retail that's, you know, trading these things and following the energy.

1191
01:40:37,544 --> 01:40:40,304
It's just be interesting to see how this all kind of moves around.

1192
01:40:41,084 --> 01:40:43,784
Keep in mind that the services are also evolving around Bitcoin.

1193
01:40:44,104 --> 01:40:44,384
True.

1194
01:40:44,384 --> 01:40:50,604
So when you think about things like lending getting unlocked and particularly lending at

1195
01:40:50,604 --> 01:40:56,324
favorable rates where you start creeping down closer to, you know, SOFR plus two, SOFR plus

1196
01:40:56,324 --> 01:41:04,664
three style lending rates, when that happens, people lose their need to sell because now you

1197
01:41:04,664 --> 01:41:09,684
can go borrow, not incur the capital gains tax. I mean, that changes the market in a big way

1198
01:41:09,684 --> 01:41:13,904
because historically you've had to basically pay loan shark rates to go and borrow against your

1199
01:41:13,904 --> 01:41:20,144
Bitcoin and people just didn't want to do that. But because of the style of collateral, how well

1200
01:41:20,144 --> 01:41:25,844
this works as collateral and the liquidity, the global liquidity 24-7 in the market, over time,

1201
01:41:25,924 --> 01:41:29,884
those rates are going to compress in a big way because it's the best collateral that a bank

1202
01:41:29,884 --> 01:41:34,664
could be holding because they're immediately liquid on it. And when that happens and all that

1203
01:41:34,664 --> 01:41:39,424
friction comes out and you're not getting gouged on the price and you're holding an asset that you

1204
01:41:39,424 --> 01:41:44,124
still think is going to compound at a high rate, you're way more incentivized to borrow against it

1205
01:41:44,124 --> 01:41:50,424
than sell it. So that's going to take additional sell pressure out of the market. So I just see so

1206
01:41:50,424 --> 01:41:55,844
many dynamics piling up here around this asset class that it just seems like we're really about

1207
01:41:55,844 --> 01:42:01,764
to hit that curve where people wake up to how powerful this is. And now they know they can

1208
01:42:01,764 --> 01:42:06,324
actually utilize the value, right? The messaging isn't, you know, you just have to buy it and die

1209
01:42:06,324 --> 01:42:09,484
with it and you can never do anything with it, you can use the value now. And it's going to get

1210
01:42:09,484 --> 01:42:16,264
easier and easier to do without having to get rid of the asset. So it's a powerful dynamic at play

1211
01:42:16,264 --> 01:42:21,404
when you add it in with all these institutions that are out acquiring it. They'll also start

1212
01:42:21,404 --> 01:42:25,404
borrowing against it so they won't have a need to sell and they'll still have access to capital if

1213
01:42:25,404 --> 01:42:31,524
they need it. It's all lining up. I mean, it's looking great. Yeah, people underestimate the

1214
01:42:31,524 --> 01:42:37,224
impetus to sell, right? What causes that real drive to sell? What's the benefit of doing it?

1215
01:42:37,244 --> 01:42:42,404
If you remove that, that's more upwards pressure. Also for shifts and giggles, we just blew through

1216
01:42:42,404 --> 01:42:49,044
111. We're at 111, 497 right now. So I think we are entering just a little taste of prices, February.

1217
01:42:49,884 --> 01:42:56,084
And for people that were calling for 90s, 80s, whatever, I think that's going to have to hold

1218
01:42:56,084 --> 01:43:00,344
off just a little bit here. Can we also just acknowledge how this thing's ripping? We're at

1219
01:43:00,344 --> 01:43:05,844
all-time highs. None of us even seem remotely excited about it. Like it's just normal to be

1220
01:43:05,844 --> 01:43:11,184
here. You're like, well, of course it's 111. People are going to wake up at some point. You're just,

1221
01:43:11,344 --> 01:43:16,884
it's, it's kind of amazing. It's lulled us into sleep where these moves don't even seem all that

1222
01:43:16,884 --> 01:43:20,924
significant, but for an asset class like Bitcoin to be breaking new all-time highs and entering

1223
01:43:20,924 --> 01:43:25,784
price discovery again is a really big deal. I mean, this is awesome. So now we just got to get

1224
01:43:25,784 --> 01:43:26,624
I'm cutting zero.

1225
01:43:26,624 --> 01:43:28,884
Next week and make sure that, you know,

1226
01:43:28,884 --> 01:43:30,284
we don't have the conference dump.

1227
01:43:30,284 --> 01:43:33,084
So everyone's gonna need to ramp the vibes up here

1228
01:43:33,084 --> 01:43:36,364
so that we can power through next week.

1229
01:43:36,364 --> 01:43:37,624
And if we're on the other side of that,

1230
01:43:37,624 --> 01:43:38,844
there's nothing stopping us.

1231
01:43:38,844 --> 01:43:41,604
If a Bitcoin conference can't stop this price pump,

1232
01:43:41,604 --> 01:43:43,144
we're in the clear.

1233
01:43:43,144 --> 01:43:44,324
That's gonna be the real test.

1234
01:43:44,324 --> 01:43:46,824
I'm really gonna be curious to see the conference curves.

1235
01:43:46,824 --> 01:43:49,144
It's amazing how superstitious we get, isn't it?

1236
01:43:49,144 --> 01:43:49,924
Yeah.

1237
01:43:49,924 --> 01:43:51,724
If we're all gonna be at the conference

1238
01:43:51,724 --> 01:43:53,944
looking at our phones and like, fuck,

1239
01:43:53,944 --> 01:43:55,344
and it happens again.

1240
01:43:55,344 --> 01:43:56,804
Big sigh of relief on Thursday.

1241
01:43:57,004 --> 01:43:58,084
Like, thank God we made it.

1242
01:43:58,504 --> 01:43:58,644
Yeah.

1243
01:44:00,184 --> 01:44:04,464
But, no, I think we might blow through a little bit here

1244
01:44:04,464 --> 01:44:06,664
and then see where we retrace to.

1245
01:44:06,844 --> 01:44:08,564
This is what I'm waiting for.

1246
01:44:10,064 --> 01:44:12,344
If we can beat the conference curse, though, that's huge.

1247
01:44:12,344 --> 01:44:14,424
If we come to the end of next week,

1248
01:44:14,904 --> 01:44:16,364
we only go down just a little bit,

1249
01:44:16,604 --> 01:44:19,924
and we haven't, like, dropped back down to, like, I don't know, 99 or something,

1250
01:44:20,324 --> 01:44:21,824
I'll be a very happy person.

1251
01:44:22,444 --> 01:44:23,444
I might have more vibes then.

1252
01:44:24,184 --> 01:44:24,864
There you go, yeah.

1253
01:44:25,344 --> 01:44:28,544
if dylan and sailor can team up and raise a bunch of capital and

1254
01:44:29,504 --> 01:44:37,424
just buy all week during the conference break this curse we're in business yeah uh yeah yes it's fun

1255
01:44:37,424 --> 01:44:41,104
to watch man it's really fun to watch that's all i gotta say it's wild i mean there's gonna be 35

1256
01:44:41,104 --> 01:44:46,304
000 people at the vegas conference this is gonna be totally crazy um 35 000 bitcoiners in the same

1257
01:44:46,304 --> 01:44:54,864
place like um i don't know another thing like that right i guess what if we're at like 120

1258
01:44:55,344 --> 01:45:00,624
and we hit like 120 at the conference people are gonna be freaking out people are gonna be freaking

1259
01:45:03,664 --> 01:45:08,304
yeah bitcoiners are gonna be swimming in the bellagio fountain and it's gonna be a mess

1260
01:45:09,344 --> 01:45:15,424
the vibes people are gonna have to reign them back in but yeah yeah if we if we run up during

1261
01:45:15,424 --> 01:45:20,544
the conference i i i'm just gonna have my phone ready for the for the memories because it's going

1262
01:45:20,544 --> 01:45:21,584
It's going to be interesting.

1263
01:45:22,524 --> 01:45:28,144
So the search conferences where you're very prepared for announcements to come out, right?

1264
01:45:28,324 --> 01:45:28,524
Yeah.

1265
01:45:28,524 --> 01:45:30,804
I won't be surprised to see several announcements come out.

1266
01:45:30,904 --> 01:45:32,064
So I'm excited for it.

1267
01:45:32,084 --> 01:45:34,564
I think this is going to be a fun one because we are hitting this curve.

1268
01:45:34,564 --> 01:45:36,984
So it evolves these conferences.

1269
01:45:37,224 --> 01:45:43,524
And now they become really big events for anyone who wants to try to make a splash if they're going to launch something.

1270
01:45:43,864 --> 01:45:47,104
And so you're always excited to see what comes out at these because you just never know.

1271
01:45:47,284 --> 01:45:48,684
I mean, some of the announcements are huge.

1272
01:45:48,824 --> 01:45:49,484
So we'll see.

1273
01:45:50,544 --> 01:45:53,184
And everyone's incentivized to hype each other up.

1274
01:45:53,724 --> 01:45:54,784
All these different companies.

1275
01:45:54,984 --> 01:45:56,064
That's what we were talking about earlier.

1276
01:45:56,964 --> 01:46:00,484
This creates so many different dynamics that I think the market is really unprepared for.

1277
01:46:00,684 --> 01:46:01,504
I really, really do.

1278
01:46:02,084 --> 01:46:03,384
But sorry, Jeff, go ahead.

1279
01:46:03,444 --> 01:46:05,464
I was just going to be cutting Jeff off constantly.

1280
01:46:05,464 --> 01:46:06,544
Yeah, sorry.

1281
01:46:07,324 --> 01:46:16,944
The surge interest for Bitcoin is a third of the peak in 2020 and 2021.

1282
01:46:16,944 --> 01:46:25,104
one. So, and it's, uh, yeah, it's about 40 or 50% of what it was around the election.

1283
01:46:26,104 --> 01:46:31,784
So I've gotten zero text messages from, uh, anybody I used to work with that knows I quit

1284
01:46:31,784 --> 01:46:36,004
my job to work in Bitcoin. I've got zero text messages from family. I've got zero text messages

1285
01:46:36,004 --> 01:46:39,884
from friends that all know where I work in Bitcoin. I think that's like, that's my gauge

1286
01:46:39,884 --> 01:46:45,864
of kind of how crazy things are getting. I I'm, you know, trying to not text anybody and

1287
01:46:45,864 --> 01:46:52,124
do the opposite to them uh because it's too late um they've got to kind of got to get there on their

1288
01:46:52,124 --> 01:47:02,444
own crazy stuff awesome uh just some more stats and data if you guys couldn't get enough uh the

1289
01:47:02,444 --> 01:47:07,304
top 10 etfs that hold mstr over on the left hand side and then top etfs that hold uh palo alto

1290
01:47:07,304 --> 01:47:14,544
networks over on the right hand side um palo palo alto networks about uh what is about six percent

1291
01:47:14,544 --> 01:47:20,104
of the companies held by the S&P 500 just out of the top 10 ETFs. And it's very clear just in

1292
01:47:20,104 --> 01:47:28,424
looking at this diagram here, the top 10 ETFs holding MSTR represent 10.3% of the holdings.

1293
01:47:29,104 --> 01:47:35,224
And whereas Palo Alto Networks holds 13.9%, the top 10 ETFs hold 13.9% of the stock. So I think

1294
01:47:35,224 --> 01:47:39,724
there's significantly more pressure from like retail and all of these other institutions that

1295
01:47:39,724 --> 01:47:44,764
are holding mstr relative to some of these other stocks that are around 100 billion dollar market

1296
01:47:44,764 --> 01:47:51,864
cap and passive flows coming from those shares that people don't want to sell is what kind of

1297
01:47:51,864 --> 01:48:00,864
pushes this forward into a into a new stratosphere cool anybody else got anything else

1298
01:48:00,864 --> 01:48:07,164
hi i think we gotta wrap this up before we you know jinx the price move and just let this thing

1299
01:48:07,164 --> 01:48:09,164
Let's just let it rip.

1300
01:48:09,164 --> 01:48:09,664
Yeah.

1301
01:48:09,664 --> 01:48:13,784
Let people concentrate the vibes on the price and just, you know, send this thing.

1302
01:48:13,784 --> 01:48:14,784
It's about time.

1303
01:48:14,784 --> 01:48:27,854
Vibe capital management is doing doing big things pushing pushing the price higher and everybody vibing out we never had concentrated vibes before where we were organizing around vibes out there so now we

1304
01:48:27,854 --> 01:48:34,414
there but yeah it's coffee that keeps you awake late at night to watch the price i've been just

1305
01:48:34,414 --> 01:48:39,614
mainlining this stuff so i'm gonna rip through these bags in a hurry but but this whole thing

1306
01:48:39,614 --> 01:48:43,854
really is a vibe and you know not to not to sound cheesy or anything like that but people are gonna

1307
01:48:43,854 --> 01:48:45,934
I'm going to get so pissed that we keep saying this, by the way.

1308
01:48:45,954 --> 01:48:47,134
It is, but let them get pissed.

1309
01:48:47,214 --> 01:48:47,474
It's fine.

1310
01:48:47,874 --> 01:48:49,274
Have your vibe moment, Adrian.

1311
01:48:49,374 --> 01:48:49,814
Let them know.

1312
01:48:49,914 --> 01:48:50,894
Yeah, this is fine.

1313
01:48:51,634 --> 01:48:57,054
Because, and maybe Ben, you can relate to this because you've been in it for a while

1314
01:48:57,054 --> 01:48:57,794
just like I have.

1315
01:48:57,994 --> 01:49:08,414
If you had told me in 2012 that by 2024, 2025, we would have companies that are not only

1316
01:49:08,414 --> 01:49:12,194
adopting Bitcoin, but we had one of them go from $1 billion to over $100 billion.

1317
01:49:12,194 --> 01:49:17,994
if you had told me that we would have, you know, many other companies that are coming in,

1318
01:49:18,254 --> 01:49:22,134
trying to adopt Bitcoin on their balance sheet for a variety of reasons, and they're trying to

1319
01:49:22,134 --> 01:49:25,914
accumulate Bitcoin for a variety of reasons. And if you had told me that we may, we have,

1320
01:49:25,914 --> 01:49:31,654
we've had a presidential candidate talk about an SVR, and that we are over 100, 110,000,

1321
01:49:31,754 --> 01:49:38,254
and we're just kind of chilling over it. I think that this is the cycle that Bitcoiners have been

1322
01:49:38,254 --> 01:49:43,694
talking about for a while where bitcoin becomes the main thing and it stays that way is what is

1323
01:49:43,694 --> 01:49:47,774
where i think that we are we're at and the reason why i say it's a vibe and it's all about sentiment

1324
01:49:47,774 --> 01:49:52,414
right now is because bitcoiners are kind of running the show at the moment this is the this is the

1325
01:49:52,414 --> 01:49:57,614
first time where i'm not hearing a lot of all coin noise and i've been searching for it i've been

1326
01:49:57,614 --> 01:50:04,494
looking and a lot of these projects have kind of lost a lost their mojo and the the concentration

1327
01:50:04,494 --> 01:50:09,974
is around Bitcoin and leverage Bitcoin equities. And on the tail end, you still have the interest

1328
01:50:09,974 --> 01:50:15,074
in the miners and all of that. Everything is becoming highly Bitcoin centric, which is why

1329
01:50:15,074 --> 01:50:19,914
I think that the dynamics of this market that exists right now are fundamentally different.

1330
01:50:20,794 --> 01:50:25,174
And yeah, it's a vibe. It's a Bitcoin vibe. I'm going to keep saying it until I annoy the fuck

1331
01:50:25,174 --> 01:50:33,274
out of someone, but I'm fine with it. But it really, really is a different market. So if I

1332
01:50:33,274 --> 01:50:40,514
a betting man, I would say that for the first time ever, and I'm probably jinxing it, but I'm

1333
01:50:40,514 --> 01:50:47,474
going to go with it. This time really is different. I'll just think of all the fun we're having too.

1334
01:50:47,814 --> 01:50:52,874
I mean, Bitcoin has the coolest people. It does. You guys all know it because you've been to all

1335
01:50:52,874 --> 01:50:58,394
these events as well. Like everybody you meet is just awesome and you want to talk to them and

1336
01:50:58,394 --> 01:51:02,714
they're interesting and they're doing crazy things that are out there. Like it's so much fun.

1337
01:51:02,714 --> 01:51:10,534
And the fact that we got our group together and the fact that we've kept a group like this together for so long, that's hard to do.

1338
01:51:11,194 --> 01:51:21,414
And if we weren't all having a good time and just like we all found the one thing that we're the weird person in our own groups about, but together it's just very normal for all of us to talk.

1339
01:51:21,774 --> 01:51:24,514
I think that's what a lot of other people are starting to resonate with, too.

1340
01:51:24,654 --> 01:51:26,294
Right. Everyone's finding their community.

1341
01:51:26,834 --> 01:51:28,354
They're popping up all over the place.

1342
01:51:28,354 --> 01:51:36,534
You get to find your flavor of the type of investments you want, whether you want just Bitcoin talk or you want equities talk and you want to talk about one company or lots of companies.

1343
01:51:36,534 --> 01:51:39,094
It doesn't matter. Right. There's a community out there for everyone.

1344
01:51:39,854 --> 01:51:48,614
And the engagement that comes with being a part of that community and the opportunities to meet people and do interesting and cool stuff is just absolutely incredible.

1345
01:51:48,814 --> 01:51:53,514
So I'm having a great time. I don't sleep nearly enough. I got to get that fixed here at some point.

1346
01:51:53,514 --> 01:51:56,674
But I mean, this is the time, right?

1347
01:51:56,734 --> 01:51:57,514
This is our year.

1348
01:51:57,614 --> 01:51:59,974
We've been waiting for it for a long time.

1349
01:52:00,454 --> 01:52:01,734
We all knew it would come,

1350
01:52:01,814 --> 01:52:03,594
but I don't think we knew it was going to come this quickly.

1351
01:52:03,874 --> 01:52:07,194
And I still think that we're early to all of this.

1352
01:52:07,534 --> 01:52:08,034
So early.

1353
01:52:08,174 --> 01:52:08,734
It's going to be a blast.

1354
01:52:08,734 --> 01:52:08,974
Early.

1355
01:52:10,174 --> 01:52:10,534
I'm happy.

1356
01:52:10,714 --> 01:52:11,754
We're so early.

1357
01:52:12,694 --> 01:52:12,854
Yeah.

1358
01:52:12,954 --> 01:52:14,934
And the thing about it is, though, is that and the reason,

1359
01:52:15,094 --> 01:52:17,154
and like Ben, what you're talking about is very, very true.

1360
01:52:17,634 --> 01:52:18,834
Bitcoin is fundamentally different

1361
01:52:18,834 --> 01:52:20,754
because to hold on to Bitcoin for a long period of time,

1362
01:52:20,794 --> 01:52:22,694
you got to be a little bit screwy in the head, I believe.

1363
01:52:22,694 --> 01:52:38,454
So we are a very unique group of people that are probably just a little bit masochistic, but also really believe in the investment thesis, really believe in the potential for it to revolutionize money and the relationship with money, you know, all the talking points, so on and so forth.

1364
01:52:38,754 --> 01:52:51,854
But I think the reason why we are such a unique cadre of individuals, whether we are in Bitcoin solely or in the Bitcoin equities, is that we suffer through the pain, but we still believe in the thesis, right?

1365
01:52:51,854 --> 01:52:56,574
and we test the thesis, we challenge the thesis, but we still believe. That doesn't exist with the

1366
01:52:56,574 --> 01:53:03,934
altcoins. They're community driven, sure, but it's a very, very different dynamic where what is here

1367
01:53:03,934 --> 01:53:08,814
today gone tomorrow. Bitcoin has been here since the beginning. It will be here at the end. And I

1368
01:53:08,814 --> 01:53:11,934
think that creates an entirely different dynamic and an entirely different investor base.

1369
01:53:12,654 --> 01:53:17,374
There's too much nonsense in the altcoins. If you've got some central issuer and you've got

1370
01:53:17,374 --> 01:53:23,854
a company running like you're open to the names or anyone says it's a security period this is the

1371
01:53:23,854 --> 01:53:28,654
one asset that got released to the world for everyone to do with it what they want and that's

1372
01:53:28,654 --> 01:53:34,254
an asset that people can get behind and they can support and they can build conviction around like

1373
01:53:34,254 --> 01:53:39,134
i can't build conviction in a coin that can change its issuance policy overnight if they want to

1374
01:53:39,134 --> 01:53:44,334
i'm not putting any real capital in that you got to be out of your mind so you need something like

1375
01:53:44,334 --> 01:53:51,454
Bitcoin that is true freedom money and it's decentralized. It's out of the control of any one

1376
01:53:52,414 --> 01:53:57,614
group, company, country. It doesn't matter. You can believe in Bitcoin. This is something you can

1377
01:53:57,614 --> 01:54:03,694
really get behind. And once you see the reason why you're holding this asset, you get real

1378
01:54:03,694 --> 01:54:07,854
comfortable because you know that it's a matter of time before everyone figures out what you've

1379
01:54:07,854 --> 01:54:13,054
already figured out and they're all going to come in the door. So we're in the waiting period. We

1380
01:54:13,054 --> 01:54:16,954
We already know we won and we know that we're sitting in the right position.

1381
01:54:17,554 --> 01:54:18,894
And now it's just time.

1382
01:54:19,234 --> 01:54:22,874
It's time and let all these broader shenanigans run their course.

1383
01:54:23,834 --> 01:54:27,634
And best thing you can do is allocate and sit on your hands and just wait.

1384
01:54:28,854 --> 01:54:29,934
Yeah, don't get cute.

1385
01:54:30,074 --> 01:54:31,734
Just let time do the work for you.

1386
01:54:32,034 --> 01:54:32,514
Yeah, yeah.

1387
01:54:32,514 --> 01:54:35,594
Don't get impatient and trade your way out of a winning position.

1388
01:54:35,834 --> 01:54:37,174
I mean, there's just no need for it.

1389
01:54:37,454 --> 01:54:40,034
You watch all the news all around the world.

1390
01:54:40,034 --> 01:54:43,314
you look at all the talk about rates and easing and all the things that are coming,

1391
01:54:43,314 --> 01:54:48,914
like they have to play games to keep a credit based system afloat. And so if you've already

1392
01:54:48,914 --> 01:54:54,274
opted out of that, you know, we're just sitting here in the one asset that is completely inelastic

1393
01:54:54,274 --> 01:54:59,634
supply to the demand. And you know that when that demand arrives, the only thing that can give us

1394
01:54:59,634 --> 01:55:05,154
the price because the supply isn't moving. So you get real comfortable in that trade when you watch

1395
01:55:05,154 --> 01:55:10,834
everything else happen and once you have bitcoin in cold storage and this is a point that everyone

1396
01:55:10,834 --> 01:55:17,554
needs to really really marry themselves to it is yours cannot be taken from you you're really

1397
01:55:17,554 --> 01:55:20,754
you're really sick and be taken from you your equity is going to be taken from you your bitcoin

1398
01:55:20,754 --> 01:55:27,554
can't be once it's in cold storage remember that never forget that that that that right there yeah

1399
01:55:27,554 --> 01:55:31,954
is what makes it unique yeah move move your bitcoin to cold storage go through that process

1400
01:55:31,954 --> 01:55:34,974
If you haven't done that, this is your call to go do that.

1401
01:55:35,054 --> 01:55:44,714
Go figure it out this weekend because it is a very empowering tool once you do that and you kind of see how that entire process works.

1402
01:55:45,794 --> 01:55:49,054
And somebody brought it up here, and I've said this a ton of times, right?

1403
01:55:49,134 --> 01:55:55,014
Like my thesis in understanding what's going on with MSTR, this is going to be the largest company on the planet, right?

1404
01:55:55,014 --> 01:56:02,294
This is the new, this is the Apple of 1998 that you're buying for, you know, 82 cents.

1405
01:56:02,374 --> 01:56:05,454
Like everybody has that uncle or that relative that they've told you that story.

1406
01:56:05,454 --> 01:56:09,894
Like, oh, I could have bought Apple at 82 cents back in 1998 or, you know, whatever.

1407
01:56:10,254 --> 01:56:11,794
And you're like, okay, well, you didn't.

1408
01:56:11,914 --> 01:56:13,434
And you wouldn't have had conviction to hold it.

1409
01:56:13,574 --> 01:56:15,794
Even if you did, you probably would have sold it the next year.

1410
01:56:16,134 --> 01:56:20,894
We're in a very similar place here with what's going on with MSDR, what's going on with Bitcoin.

1411
01:56:21,634 --> 01:56:24,614
There are shiny things.

1412
01:56:25,014 --> 01:56:29,814
Uh, and they're each, each product has different risk return metrics.

1413
01:56:29,894 --> 01:56:34,374
And, um, I just, just, if you're considering all of those things, think about that.

1414
01:56:34,494 --> 01:56:37,954
Think about the stress on your life to be able to watch those things and manage those

1415
01:56:37,954 --> 01:56:38,214
things.

1416
01:56:38,214 --> 01:56:42,554
Like if you're fully porting and YOLOing something, like that's a lot of stress and time and energy

1417
01:56:42,554 --> 01:56:43,354
on your entire life.

1418
01:56:43,354 --> 01:56:46,014
And you got to quantify whether or not that's worth it for you.

1419
01:56:46,554 --> 01:56:52,294
Um, I've told my story of my GameStop, um, experience to many people and I'd ruined a

1420
01:56:52,294 --> 01:57:00,534
whole week with my wife on vacation. I wish I could have got that back. And following that

1421
01:57:00,534 --> 01:57:07,134
energy and being that close to something on full yellow on one thing, aside from micro strategy,

1422
01:57:07,134 --> 01:57:13,854
because I had so much conviction in it, it's difficult to do. Be prepared to do that.

1423
01:57:14,754 --> 01:57:18,654
And we've talked about it before, but with something like Bitcoin, it becomes that only

1424
01:57:18,654 --> 01:57:24,414
peaceful part of your portfolio sometimes. I mean, I haven't talked about Bitcoin accounts in a very

1425
01:57:24,414 --> 01:57:28,054
long time because it doesn't matter. I'm not doing anything with it right now because I know where

1426
01:57:28,054 --> 01:57:35,374
we're going. So it's that one peaceful thing that you know, you own, you control. And because of that,

1427
01:57:35,874 --> 01:57:39,594
you can just sit comfortably because you know, you've done the work, you've positioned it

1428
01:57:39,594 --> 01:57:45,034
correctly, you've secured it correctly. You're ready for what comes next. A lot of people aren't.

1429
01:57:45,034 --> 01:57:50,234
and this is the planning that sets you up to buy your freedom back later in life. I mean,

1430
01:57:50,274 --> 01:57:53,854
it's very freeing when you do hit that point, when you've made the investments

1431
01:57:53,854 --> 01:57:58,874
that outpace your income from your job and they put you in that position of freedom where you now

1432
01:57:58,874 --> 01:58:04,654
get to go get your time back because that's the only asset you've got that's more important than

1433
01:58:04,654 --> 01:58:09,594
Bitcoin. And the sooner you can get that back and you can control your life and focus on the things

1434
01:58:09,594 --> 01:58:14,274
you really want to focus on instead of the things that you currently have to focus on,

1435
01:58:14,274 --> 01:58:18,014
you know, that's a different way to live. And you can become much more passionate about what

1436
01:58:18,014 --> 01:58:21,474
you're doing. Retirement never means that you're done doing anything. It just means you're done

1437
01:58:21,474 --> 01:58:25,474
doing things you don't want to do anymore. You're focused on the things that really light you up.

1438
01:58:25,474 --> 01:58:28,234
And you're seeing that people that are watching, you're seeing that with Jeff,

1439
01:58:28,914 --> 01:58:32,934
leaving his job, right? Bought his freedom. Now he just wants to focus on Bitcoin. You're seeing

1440
01:58:32,934 --> 01:58:37,834
that with a lot of people. You find that one thing that lights you on fire and you double down on

1441
01:58:37,834 --> 01:58:42,474
that and you just press the, you put the gas to the floor and you go and you have a great time

1442
01:58:42,474 --> 01:58:46,614
doing it. It never means you're done. It just means that you're evolving and you're pivoting

1443
01:58:46,614 --> 01:58:51,994
to what you want to be doing. So put yourself in that position where you can get that outcome for

1444
01:58:51,994 --> 01:58:55,394
yourself because it's the one thing in your life that you'll never regret.

1445
01:58:56,774 --> 01:59:00,054
You did what you had to do so you can do what you want to do.

1446
01:59:02,194 --> 01:59:09,814
Bingo. But before we go, final thoughts, and that could have been it, but there were a couple

1447
01:59:09,814 --> 01:59:14,534
questions i think that are worth addressing uh somebody asked what uh what kind of gold storage

1448
01:59:14,534 --> 01:59:21,654
wallets i use uh got trezor blockstream jade uh in the bitkey i've kind of used all those plays

1449
01:59:21,654 --> 01:59:25,654
played around with all of them they're kind of fun i mean cold card is the cold card is the other one

1450
01:59:26,774 --> 01:59:30,294
if you're interested in watching how to do that go follow btc sessions on youtube

1451
01:59:31,574 --> 01:59:35,814
go buy your bitcoin on swan exchange there you go ben shout out

1452
01:59:35,814 --> 01:59:37,954
I appreciate the shout out.

1453
01:59:38,094 --> 01:59:38,674
You're welcome.

1454
01:59:39,154 --> 01:59:47,514
The only thing I'll call out because it does make a difference to a lot of people is, you know, some people want someone there to talk them through that process of getting into like a multi-sig arrangement.

1455
01:59:47,954 --> 01:59:51,354
And Swan, as far as I know, is the only place that actually has advisors.

1456
01:59:51,354 --> 01:59:56,314
You can talk to the person and help them handhold you through that process if you're not comfortable doing it yourself.

1457
01:59:56,314 --> 02:00:06,114
So, you know, shameless plug there, but I think that's a really important service for a lot of people who are just getting into this and don't have, you know, the tech savviness to be confident in doing it themselves.

1458
02:00:06,914 --> 02:00:17,574
Yep. And your private keys are important. Yep. Absolutely. They are. They're way more important than the wallet itself, but private keys are important.

1459
02:00:17,574 --> 02:00:24,534
the other thing somebody asked about the lawsuit and very very interesting that there was a huge

1460
02:00:24,534 --> 02:00:30,014
short interest it's like uh jim chanos came out says like i'm short mstr and they're like oh

1461
02:00:30,014 --> 02:00:35,734
interesting class action lawsuit that comes out the next day very suspect timing uh it's really

1462
02:00:35,734 --> 02:00:40,114
just a money grab because you got a 60 billion dollar company that is willing to probably pay a

1463
02:00:40,114 --> 02:00:44,054
little bit of something to make those people go away it looks like a nothing burger read through

1464
02:00:44,054 --> 02:00:49,614
it. Not at all coordinated, not a chance. Yeah, probably not. I think it's pretty common.

1465
02:00:49,754 --> 02:00:53,354
Interesting enough, the other company that's over a hundred billion dollar valuation,

1466
02:00:53,554 --> 02:01:00,394
Apple oven is also getting short interest. They're like sending the S&P 500 letters to say,

1467
02:01:00,394 --> 02:01:04,494
don't add them to the S&P 500. They're sending that to the committee and they also have lawsuits

1468
02:01:04,494 --> 02:01:12,374
out on them. So it's interesting that you see these valuations kind of percolate and go higher

1469
02:01:12,374 --> 02:01:19,094
and then there's attacks that go after them cool all right maybe final thoughts dan over to you

1470
02:01:19,094 --> 02:01:24,294
you've been uh a little quiet but that's okay um you got final thoughts i like listening to you

1471
02:01:24,294 --> 02:01:30,054
guys talk uh yeah final thoughts um i mean don't let the price get to you i think uh bitcoin's

1472
02:01:30,054 --> 02:01:37,894
ripping that's fantastic the btc game will be really great and lawsuit isn't a big deal i know

1473
02:01:37,894 --> 02:01:43,334
there's a lot of people um i think you need you need to step off twitter and make up your mind

1474
02:01:43,334 --> 02:01:48,694
about your investment thesis and then come back to twitter and use that perspective to inform your

1475
02:01:49,334 --> 02:01:53,734
uh decision making so that's really important don't let the twitter noise

1476
02:01:54,374 --> 02:02:01,094
um change your course steer you off course yeah i mean like just go look like literally you could

1477
02:02:01,094 --> 02:02:06,854
see hundreds of people that have sold their micro strategy to go you know follow meta planet or go

1478
02:02:06,854 --> 02:02:10,354
do other things, which is like, okay, like more power to them. Like, that's what you want to do.

1479
02:02:10,434 --> 02:02:14,354
There's, there's risk associated with that trade. There's, uh, you know, you got to pay attention

1480
02:02:14,354 --> 02:02:19,754
to it. All of those things. I think that's good sage advice, Dan, from somebody that's, uh,

1481
02:02:20,274 --> 02:02:25,774
a little bit younger, good advice, not financial advice, just good advice, good life advice.

1482
02:02:27,354 --> 02:02:32,894
There's more to life. Go touch grass. I, my best part of my day today was like the 20 minutes I was

1483
02:02:32,894 --> 02:02:38,614
outside throwing the ball for my dog. Uh, it was just like blissful. I was in the sun, took my shirt

1484
02:02:38,614 --> 02:02:46,154
off, get some sunshine. It was amazing. Anyway, Ben over to you. Yeah, no, I've already said a lot.

1485
02:02:46,154 --> 02:02:50,634
So thank God Dan likes to listen to us talk because we're not shutting up. I think people

1486
02:02:50,634 --> 02:02:55,414
know that by now, but, uh, you know, along his lines, don't rent your conviction from anybody

1487
02:02:55,414 --> 02:02:58,934
else, right? Build your own because if you're renting it from other people, you're going to

1488
02:02:58,934 --> 02:03:04,334
get shaken out of your positions well before you should. So just make sure you do the work. I mean,

1489
02:03:04,334 --> 02:03:08,634
it's well worth it. It's a really important part of your life. Investing is. It is what buys you

1490
02:03:08,634 --> 02:03:13,534
that freedom ultimately, right? You build your asset base, you deploy it. It starts doing the

1491
02:03:13,534 --> 02:03:18,694
work for you. So it's a really important thing to be engaged in. So make sure you're building your

1492
02:03:18,694 --> 02:03:23,214
own conviction, digging into each of the investments that you want to be a part of.

1493
02:03:23,794 --> 02:03:28,674
And if you've done the homework, you can ignore the noise and you won't get shaken out when other

1494
02:03:28,674 --> 02:03:33,214
people start getting nervous or jittery or talking bad about it because you'll know what's happening.

1495
02:03:33,214 --> 02:03:39,434
So chart your own course, stay on it, execute in the long term, reap the rewards.

1496
02:03:41,634 --> 02:03:43,014
Bingo. Yep. Adrian.

1497
02:03:44,674 --> 02:03:48,034
Oh, yeah, I think I'm Dan and Ben have hit the nail on the head on a few different points.

1498
02:03:48,574 --> 02:03:50,154
I'll just echo some of that sentiment.

1499
02:03:50,184 --> 02:03:56,904
If you are online too long and you're seeing people making predictions or sharing their opinions and whatnot,

1500
02:03:57,144 --> 02:04:02,524
and you're referring to them versus doing the work yourself to understand what your investment thesis is,

1501
02:04:02,564 --> 02:04:04,764
I think that you are doing yourself a great disservice.

1502
02:04:05,364 --> 02:04:11,464
Whether it's us, whether it's whomever, you should be able to trust your own judgment and trust your own analysis

1503
02:04:11,464 --> 02:04:14,924
and trust your own insights before you trust someone else's.

1504
02:04:14,924 --> 02:04:18,044
if you are going along with what everyone else says,

1505
02:04:18,164 --> 02:04:20,244
whether it's pro or con,

1506
02:04:20,344 --> 02:04:22,444
I think you need to do a little bit of self-analysis

1507
02:04:22,444 --> 02:04:25,684
and self-reflection to figure out why it is you're doing that

1508
02:04:25,684 --> 02:04:28,004
because you're essentially outsourcing responsibility at that point.

1509
02:04:28,504 --> 02:04:30,144
You're responsible for your own outcomes

1510
02:04:30,144 --> 02:04:31,244
when it comes to these investments,

1511
02:04:31,484 --> 02:04:32,664
and you should treat it as such,

1512
02:04:32,664 --> 02:04:34,824
no matter what anyone says, whether it's us or anyone else.

1513
02:04:35,564 --> 02:04:38,084
And that said, NFA,

1514
02:04:38,304 --> 02:04:40,384
but sometimes the best thing to do is sit in your hands.

1515
02:04:40,884 --> 02:04:44,264
Once you've got a winning hand and you play it,

1516
02:04:44,264 --> 02:04:48,984
step away from the table and understand what you have and understand the opportunity that you have

1517
02:04:48,984 --> 02:04:53,744
there and be willing to live with the benefits and live with the consequences. That's pretty

1518
02:04:53,744 --> 02:04:59,984
much the best advice I can give. Own your outcome. Own your outcome. Yeah, try to assess risk.

1519
02:05:00,744 --> 02:05:04,944
I mean, everybody's rethinking what risk is now in this new digital framework of the Bitcoin

1520
02:05:04,944 --> 02:05:08,804
treasury companies. Everybody's trying to figure it out. And there is risk. There's risk everywhere.

1521
02:05:09,404 --> 02:05:20,848
I think risk is probably mispriced everywhere in the market the stock market bond market equity market And think about what risks are of every transaction But there a lot of

1522
02:05:20,848 --> 02:05:25,148
bullishness on the horizon. I mean, obviously we're in price discovery with Bitcoin. Last time

1523
02:05:25,148 --> 02:05:33,068
Bitcoin was in price discovery, it moved 37% in 18 days. It moved 50% in 50 days. So if we have a

1524
02:05:33,068 --> 02:05:37,808
very similar type situation here and companies that are putting their foot on the gas right now

1525
02:05:37,808 --> 02:05:39,988
with just incredibly strong financial positions.

1526
02:05:40,428 --> 02:05:42,968
This is a whole different ballgame

1527
02:05:42,968 --> 02:05:46,528
than where we were in November

1528
02:05:46,528 --> 02:05:48,308
or where we were in past cycles.

1529
02:05:48,848 --> 02:05:50,608
We've got Bitcoin treasury companies

1530
02:05:50,608 --> 02:05:52,728
that are ready to just attack

1531
02:05:52,728 --> 02:05:58,048
and just put as many sats on their balance sheet

1532
02:05:58,048 --> 02:05:58,808
as humanly possible.

1533
02:05:59,028 --> 02:06:00,628
So exciting time to be in Bitcoin.

1534
02:06:01,328 --> 02:06:03,268
I'm looking forward to all the other people

1535
02:06:03,268 --> 02:06:06,508
that are potentially going to exit the rat race,

1536
02:06:06,648 --> 02:06:07,588
the fiat hamster wheel.

1537
02:06:07,808 --> 02:06:11,048
and move into growing the Bitcoin network

1538
02:06:11,048 --> 02:06:12,128
and the Bitcoin ecosystem.

1539
02:06:12,128 --> 02:06:14,788
Also super excited to see anybody next week.

1540
02:06:14,788 --> 02:06:16,168
We've got the Bitcoin Vegas.

1541
02:06:16,168 --> 02:06:18,468
We're gonna have no show next week.

1542
02:06:18,468 --> 02:06:19,968
If you see us, come say hi.

1543
02:06:19,968 --> 02:06:21,548
There's gonna be 35,000 people there.

1544
02:06:21,548 --> 02:06:24,188
I'll try to say hi to as many people as possible.

1545
02:06:24,188 --> 02:06:26,668
And yeah, looking forward to it.

1546
02:06:26,668 --> 02:06:31,308
It's gonna be a ton of fun and yeah, good vibes.

1547
02:06:31,308 --> 02:06:32,828
Good vibes all around.

1548
02:06:32,828 --> 02:06:35,148
All right, I think we're going higher.

1549
02:06:35,148 --> 02:06:36,248
Going higher.

1550
02:06:36,248 --> 02:06:37,288
We'll catch you all later.