Hey, welcome, everybody. This is episode something, Wednesday, January 21st of MSTR True North.
Tonight, you just have the three of us considering Ben and Jeff are off on important business.
So we're going to try to hold down the fort and give you the best information over the last week
with regards to macroeconomic events, digital credit, Bitcoin, the equitization of Bitcoin,
and then the digitization of credit.
So before further ado, we're going to have a little message from Tim.
Ladies and gentlemen, what you're about to hear may be amazing,
but it is not financial advice.
It's for informational and educational purposes only.
Jeff.
Back to us.
back to us dan so solei mike what's going on what are you guys thinking uh let me just quickly go
over our agenda for everyone watching we're going to keep this short to about an hour and 20 minutes
we have a slide deck some things uh some events we want to cover grain has some macroeconomic and
takes he has about his posts he's been he's been doing so i'm going to go over kind of last week
we're going to talk about the big accumulation both mstr common and strc we're going to talk a
little bit about 2026 digital credit how that landscape's shaping up what's the macro tailwinds
and head headwinds with regards to japan greenland the metals blowing out ray dalio still saying the
same thing credit spreads at all time tights in the iran situation and then finally we're going
to talk a little bit about structure finance how these credit instruments integrate into the broader
fixed income markets and then the bad bond of the week i have a right aid bond that will be of note
to people because you can get similar you can literally get similar yields on a bond of a
corporation going through bankruptcy proceedings as you can on strd strategies you know junk rated
credit instrument that's 3x over collateralized by bitcoin so very interesting alpha still left
in the market so grain so what are you guys thinking what's the word i mean the big news is
the uh the big smash stretch by right i think so i think so i think stretch has been training like
a real pristine instrument so that's something really interesting and you know the statistic
i've been looking at is that stretch stretch is traded within a 10 range even during that
that dpeg to like 92 dollars whereas bitcoin's traded down by 33 percent uh from peak to trough
down to 80k so like that's significant volatility reduction in that instrument it's performing as it
should during what we can consider a bear market especially for strategy yeah they paid the dividend
and bitcoin went down strategy went down and stretch was just fine yeah maybe people are
starting to think like these dividends will get paid green what's what's new with you what are
you thinking look look look stretch is awesome you know and i i saw a couple things that people
didn't realize about stretch and i posted and i talked about this uh stretches has a target range
of 99 to 101 dollars it is not based upon the price of bitcoin and so what happens is there's
There's a slide from the strategy deck I keep on reposting about the VWAP of the last week of the month.
So if Stretch trades below $100 or below $99, then they have to raise the rate up on it in order to keep the peg.
On the flip side, if it starts trading above $101, then they could lower the rate.
What I think they're going to do is the sweet spot.
Now, what do I think the sweet spot is?
I think it's a tighter range.
And this is my analysis.
I think it's going to trade between $99 and $0.25 and $1.25.
Sorry, $100 and $0.25 or $100 and $0.50.
And that'll be the part where we're all seeing, can they ATM it?
And it's in their best interest to keep that above $100 because then they can ATM it.
So I think that this is one of the biggest important changes in the Bitcoin space, literally in months.
I mean, if not, you know, for the past year.
No, I completely agree, Gray.
And I think the new regimen that we're seeing now is that not only are the ATMing stretch,
but they're expanding their balance sheet at 1x MNAV with the common equity issuance,
which essentially creates it such that there's no cap on the amount of stretch they can issue.
as long as they expand their collateral and expand stretch with it as long as there's demand for
stretch which i made a just recent post about like there is plenty of demand for an 11 short
duration credit instrument as long as there's demand for that instrument they're going to
continue to have a bid underlying bitcoin for the foreseeable future and it's a pretty incredible
product so we can go into that we can go into some price models just how big these buys can get
over time i think you know this puts the s p out of business and that's how i think about it stretch
puts the S&P out of business. So when you have a short duration credit instrument that outperforms
the S&P, what do you mean? Yeah, I'm glad you said that, Dan, because people were asking me like,
hey, can you talk about this tonight? And I kind of, when I first read it, I was immediately
impressed. But then I have to admit, I kind of hated it for a second because I was like,
holy crap, 300 million of stretch. And if they had just announced that alone,
then it would have been like, I don't know, it felt like it would have been a bigger flex.
and I'm like, why even ATM all of this MSTR?
But I saw your interview on OneChair
and I think I kind of got there.
I was like, okay, well, maybe they just need
to build a bigger base for the preferreds.
As their ATMing stretch,
they got to build a bigger base of Bitcoin stack
on top of it.
But you explained it a hell of a lot better
and I guess it came to you a lot easier.
So you did a hell of a job on the OneChair.
Thank you.
Mike, were you going to say that?
Yeah.
You know, look, stretch, I think, is fundamentally different.
I'm going to share something on my desktop, and I want to talk about the article I wrote
and explain why something has fundamentally changed.
And this got a lot of traction.
So let me see.
Share window.
Let me see if I get this right.
Okay.
Share this window.
So let me know when you guys –
Let me pull it up.
It's in the window.
You are gravy.
Here we go.
Yeah.
So it's working.
So hiding in plans.
Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren.
mclaren x every every everybody can see now what i look at on a daily basis uh um i had to make
sure there wasn't anything crazy up there um so so so so keep they keep my desktop did it fade off
my desktop uh i'll switch it back yeah switch it back it's okay so look hiding in plain sight
december 1st 2025 strategy puts out this picture of the of the rocket ship and a lot of people a
lot of people like to blast sailor for a particular reason. Oh, he, these are metaphors. I don't
understand what he's talking. And they're like, he's trying to talk about things where people just
don't get what he's talking about. And what you're seeing here is that there's, there's the three
engines, which is the derivatives market, the equity market and so forth. And then you see that
there's actually, there's, there's three fuel tanks. What are the three fuel tanks? And this
what's written in the article now i wrote this article in i it's less than a thousand words it
takes three minutes to read it if you read it twice probably less than five minutes so what are
the three fuel tanks you've got bitcoin bitcoin is the base of everything and mstr stock i'm very
specific about mstr about that stock is that that that's what gives you the most volatility for the
stock the most amplification now what you have here is you have the other the other two fuel tanks
and on December 1st when they announced this,
they announced $1.4 billion in cash
and people were like, oh, cash is terrible,
cash is trash, cash is melting.
No, guys, this was another lever.
Now it's $2.25 billion in cash
and you're like, why did he get cash?
Cash is terrible.
No, no, no.
This is when the MSCI FUD came out.
This was in December 1st.
The FUD came out in November
and so what they wanted to signal is we now have cash.
Now what's happened is, is that stretch STRC has maintained the peg.
And that happened on January 7th of this year.
So think about the timing.
December 1st, right?
This image comes out.
Stretch, you know, MSCI stretch hits on January 7th.
It maintains the peg.
So now strategy has three levers, right?
We all look at the AK when it comes out and we see they did a $2 billion buy or a billion
dollar buy three billion dollars worth of mstr buys of bitcoin but what we saw was the 300 sorry
the uh 200 million sorry 300 million dollars worth worth of strc that happened on monday wow it was
only monday or tuesday today's wednesday yeah so because monday was a holiday so so what happens
what we're seeing here is that strc is the iphone moment because and somebody else said this it's
like a stable stock. It's not a stable coin. It's equitized Bitcoin in the form of a pref.
And so it's designed to have this target range, which I keep on showing, is the prices between
$99 and $101. So this article right here basically goes through these three pieces and the cash,
digital credit, equity, and what the market is trying to talk about. And so I think this is the
critical part that people are missing is that now strategy has three levers to pull. Because stretch
is a variable dividend, whereas all the other preps are fixed dividends. They're 8%, right?
Or there's a conversion on STRK. But stretch has a variable dividend rate in order to keep that peg.
The other ones have floating prices. This one has a floating price, but it's between $99 or $101.
So it's really designed to have this peg.
That's what's different.
So now strategy has a way, you know, just like a central bank.
They can do yield curve control, but it's programmatic that they built into this.
So I think that's the key part that I'm talking about is that people have to look at it holistically.
They have to look at it as a system.
It's just not, oh, tell me about every PREF for a three-hour call and in detail.
No, it's how are the PREFs related specifically also with STRC?
How is it related to the accumulation of Bitcoin?
And how is it related to the cash?
There's three parts of this.
And that's where I think the company is fundamentally different, that people aren't seeing it.
So this rocket ship, right, that people didn't get, right?
You got to study this.
This rocket ship with the three different fuel tanks is really great.
Now, I want to give one last minute.
Go jump right in.
Yeah, I want to jump in there because, you know, what people don't understand is like,
oh, but there's plenty of preferred equities out there in the market. There's plenty of
bonds out there. How is this any different? People are thinking that I might, no, no,
stretch is fundamentally different. And that's because it's the only prep that's been able to be
created such that it's a stable equity, like Grant's saying. The reason is it's because it's
the first preferred equity, which is a yield bearing instrument that has an ATM registration
on top of it. The only way to keep it stable at this $100 price peg is one, the short duration to
to change the interest rate, the dividend interest rate on a monthly basis. So that helps adjust the
price. But you also need to be able to cap the price via equity issuance at $100 or more. So
this, again, is the first PREF in the history of financial markets to have an ATM shelf registration
on it. So if it weren't for that innovation, this product would not be possible. And therefore,
this is the first product of its kind in all of financial markets to create what is effectively
an equitized stable coin backed by strategist bitcoin in the equities market this was not
possible before and so people i think people don't understand that this is actually a new product
yeah i thought there's no way they're going to keep this under 100. i was like i don't know how
they're going to be able to atm this enough to keep it under 100 and then they had a little bit
of growing pains but i think they're going to start running into that problem which is i guess
is a good problem to have but uh yeah i'm i'm just super super stoked about it yeah and and i keep
on pulling up this slide you know if somebody you know when i show the slide it's like oh stretch can
go to 150 no it can't strategy will sell everything above 101 to keep it lower right i think they're
going to try and keep it at 11 at least for the next six months right i don't see any especially
if you believe in sailor's bitcoin model or the power law bitcoin model bitcoin has a higher kager
for the next five years than the following five years there's no reason not to generate massive
amounts of demand with 11 yield versus a 10 this is all a marginal difference and you go if you
believe in the trajectory of bitcoin regardless so i think i totally agree 11 is pretty much on i
don't think they're going to lower it i don't think they'll lower it unless unless the demand
is so insatiable that they they bump up against that amplification ratio and they need to stop
people from buying strc to keep the price from running up i look i hope i hope that's the problem
you know one of the weird things about this is that we are going to get a new fed chair
in may well jerome powell expires in may dan we've talked about this before there'll be a new
person that's going to come in whoever that is it's going to be somebody that that the
administration wants to lower interest rates and you know what we're going into an election
lower interest rates okay that benefits the whole economy put it on boil who cares about if there's
inflation, right? So they lower interest rates. Now think about it. If STRC, if stretches at 11%,
we lower interest rates, the spread between those two becomes greater. This is the opposite of
what's happening in Japan. In Japan, rates have gone basically up 6X basically in about 18 months.
And so in Japan, rates are going up from a zero interest rate environment. It's been going up.
So there it's a much different situation in the US.
Anywhere where rates are going to drop,
Stretch is going to look fundamentally better.
So this is a product, when it came out, the iPhone,
I think my disappointment was everybody else,
it was a big IPO.
And what happened was there might've been
a little bit of overhang, right?
So initially it was $2.5 billion.
And now it's only about 3 billion.
So it's only added 500 million.
That's still a 20% increase.
But what happens is when you do an IPO, that market maker doesn't dump all the shares in the market on the first day.
They've got to let those shares come out over time.
And so now that that's settled out, I think that this $300 million, if it goes to $500 million and it's per week, that's $25 billion a year.
Let's just say it stays at $250 million per week.
right that's a billion dollars a month it's still 12 billion dollars a year so i i think that's the
way i look at it oh wow are you guys seeing um yeah we can see that that's cool we're seeing
spreadsheets yeah okay so true north side event grain can you give us a little rundown on this
just so everyone's watching yeah look uh the true north inside event at strategy world uh our first
one was last year. And it, from what I could tell, I think we've already sold out. I think
we've already sold out almost the second 50 tickets. So the price is going up. So these are
going fast. Also the hotel, if you book this and we recommend that everybody should go also to
strategy world, the hotel at the wind, it's relatively inexpensive, you know, for the wind,
I think it's 319 a night. And so I, I, I'm going to both events. I'll be there. I'm staying at the
Wynn hotel, come and meet us in person. The important thing to realize is that we're not
going to live stream this. There's not going to be any, any video that's going to be done there.
So this is only going to be an in-person event. It will not be live streamed. And what we learned
from last year is that some people will feel more comfortable just being able to talk without having
any form of video so exactly that's one exactly yeah it's important for us that it's an in-person
only you know personalized experience for everyone involved that's our focus hope to see you all there
the links are here if you need it um so i mean we're going to talk a little bit about kind of
just the general picture and you know this episode is very highly focused on strc the reason we focus so heavily on strc is because it ultimately the answer I think to a lot of the credit problems in the US for retail and institutional investors
And a couple of interesting parallels here is like, you know, we talk a lot about, you know,
fiscal responsibility and the fiscal deficit in the United States. And, you know, there's a lot
of macro doom or bears saying we're going to have this crazy pullback equity markets that leads to
a deflationary bust and we're going to see a collapse like never before. But we're in this
situation where austerity isn't even a dream. There's no world in which fiscal austerity
is even remotely possible with the current debt to GDP numbers and especially with midterms coming up
and the way that Republicans want to run the economy hot into 2026 and beyond. So, you know,
So here's the – we're actually running a fiscal surplus during 1998 or 2001 right up to the pricking of the dot-com bubble.
And I'd let Grayen speak to that a little bit.
But the situation we're in now is much, much different with regards to the money printer and having to kind of grow our way out with negative real interest rates for the foreseeable future.
So, Grayen, any historical parallels there considering you're the resident historian?
Yeah. Thanks for being the resident historian.
So I wrote another 600-word article, and I'm going to share it.
Give me one second here to share it.
And because people will be like, share this window.
So let me give you one second.
Okay.
Let me know when it should be sharing now.
Yeah, but we got infinite.
Yeah, give it a second.
There we go.
So there's this one.
So it's my pinned tweet.
You know, is the Federal Reserve evil?
People love to say it's evil.
Um, what's interesting is that the, the two circular, and let me blow this up here.
So it's easier to see.
So I went to the, uh, federal reserve, uh, uh, website, right.
And you see this picture that's right here.
So now it's nice and big.
Um, all they had was they had the left, they had the revenue $4.9 trillion.
And then they have, which is the revenue coming in and the outlay 6.8 trillion going out.
they had this on the Federal Reserve site.
The part that they left out was that the part in the red on the right,
the fact that you have a $1.9 trillion deficit every year, every year,
that's where the $38 trillion debt comes.
I'm like, how could the person write this article and leave out the $2 trillion?
That's like saying, oh, I make $490,000 a year.
you know, I make $500,000 a year. Like, Oh, that's a lot of money. And you're like,
yeah, but I spend $700,000 a year. So I have a net, I'm using 200 grand a year on my credit card.
They're like, that would be an important part not to, you know, not to leave out. So, you know,
when I wrote about this and this article is 600 words, um, I explained about there's, there's two
things and this is important to take two minutes on this. Look, there, there's, there's two groups,
two entities that control money in the U.S.
Okay?
And what I mean by this is that you have, I say right here, you have monetary policy.
Let me go to this first part over here.
Fiscal policy.
Okay.
I found this on the web.
Stop that.
Syria just jumped in.
Okay, listen to me.
So what happens is Congress decides the budget.
House of Reps, Senate, they come with the budget, they give it to the president.
president signs off on it that's the budget right whether it's Republican
Democrat doesn't matter that's the budget the Fed has no control over that
so I also posted a link to Milton Freeman and when he said every budget is
balanced you're like when I heard that I'm like what do you mean every budget
is balanced because the Fed has to make up for the two trillion dollars that's
at the top so this right over here this missing 1.9 trillion dollars that's what
the Fed prints. And everybody's like, ah, the Fed, they're scumbags. Jerome Powell will just
print in the money. He doesn't have a choice. There's no choice here. They need to finance
the deficit. They need to finance the fiscal. They've got to finance the fiscal deficit. Now,
if we were on the gold standard, then you probably wouldn't need Bitcoin, right? It would be a
different world, but that's not where we are. So that's the part that we saw about the World
Economic Forum that happened was the guy that was talking is like, oh, well, I would rather have
more faith in a democratic controlled central bank and brian armstrong says but we can't rely
on them not to have fiscal deficits he says that it doesn't matter who's in power it doesn't matter
deficits will prevail we've seen that over the past 10 years right and let me show you why it
doesn't matter this is this is what happens so people like to get all tricky and everything
so what you see here in this this chart i'll blow this up so people can see it and it's in here
This is really simple. The green line, right, is the monetary supply. And it starts, the Fed only tracks it from 1980 the way it's calculated. But what you'll see here is the red line is that that's the federal surplus or deficit.
it so we actually we we had under clinton we we had a surplus right but after 2000 it's always
been negative every year and the big drop was during covid over here right so everybody's like
well what's the now just look at the total number now somebody's like okay every year we have this
so so what happens this is the last chart that i have and there's this one again the red line is
still the same the red line is still every every year we have we have a uh a deficit the green line
green can you explain exactly what the deficit is for people sitting at home so the deficit
is obviously the difference between outlays and government revenue correct right so like like i
just said so it's the amount the debt increases year by year right so the deficit isn't the debt
the deficit is the amount that the debt is increasing or decreasing on a yearly basis
Right. So let me give the exact examples that are here. They use trillions of dollars. We'll just say, assume you make $50,000 a year. You're like, okay, I'm making $50,000 a year. But you're spending $70,000 a year. And somebody's like, well, how is that possible? Well, you're putting $20,000 a year on your credit card. So each year you're going $20,000 a year into debt.
So you have a $20,000 a year deficit, right?
Right.
Personal deficit.
You have a $20,000.
So after five years, you now have 100 grand in debt.
Hold on a second.
You have to pay interest on that debt.
Like everybody knows there's a credit card, right?
So you're borrowing 20 grand a year, right?
And it compounds over time.
Just like I said, it compounds.
You know, I have more if I make 20 percent year over year over year in three years, my money doubles.
It's actually about three and a half years.
Same thing with the credit card debt.
And this is exactly what happened.
You can see reflected in the exponential growth of the federal debt, right?
Right.
So the green line is the federal debt.
And you look right around.
It was manageable at four trillion dollars.
And people like to talk, oh, what's the percentage of GDP?
No, no, they're skipping it.
It's now $38 trillion and it's allowed because of the big, beautiful bill to go to $41 trillion.
There's no way around this.
It doesn't matter whether you're Democrat or Republican.
The problem is only getting worse.
And if you were to make the budget at least no deficit, you still got to pay the interest on the $38 trillion.
So pretty much the takeaway, right, if I'm getting it right, there's no fiscal austerity.
There is no sign of fiscal austerity in the future.
So that's the framework we have to operate on.
Yeah.
And so the last part here, and I'll stop sharing my desktop, is this.
There is no politician that's going to raise taxes.
And there's no politician that really wants to cut spending.
Just isn't.
They won't get elected.
Right.
You won't get elected.
You're unelectable either way.
Right.
You're unelectable either way.
So what's going to happen is even if we were to get a balanced budget where there's no deficit spending,
You still have to make the interest payments on $38 trillion.
That's why when somebody says to me, Mike, why can't it be like in 1950, you know, when Sam came home to his housewife and they got all these groceries purchased and we're on the gold standard and there's a car in the garage.
The guy bought a house.
The world is great in the 1950s.
Why can't we do it anymore?
We didn't have $38 trillion in debt.
And that's why I don't care what happened in the 50s.
Right.
No, and that's totally accurate. And for people at home to understand what that means, what that means is interest rates need to be kept low, such that the government can continue financing this massive debt burden.
However, to do this, they're going to have to debase the currency and increase the money supply by issuing new credit in the form of debt.
So it's a self-perpetuating cycle where the only way to manage this debt is to debase the currency to bring the dollar weaker, while also keeping interest rates artificially low such that they can continue to fund deficit while it balloons exponentially out of control.
So all it ends up being is monetary debasement of U.S. dollars in the form of very complicated yield curve control, quantitative easing, et cetera, et cetera.
Yeah.
And so, you know, I saw some of the comments from Alec talking about STRC.
Look, on February 5th, strategy is going to come out with new guidance.
Look, this is not a surprise.
We already know this.
Every year, every company comes out with their yearly guidance.
They're going to say, this is what happened in 2025.
We already know they're going to report whatever, a loss for the last quarter and for the year,
which is fine because of the EPS, which doesn't matter because it's already priced in.
because they said in the December 31st purchase,
when we got that notification on whatever the first or the second,
that was a footnote at the very end.
So we already know this.
There's no surprise there.
What they're going to do is, and I don't know what they're going to do,
but I'm going to tell you what they're going to do.
They're going to announce what they're going to do for 2026 and say,
we did 22.8% in BTC yield last year.
Okay.
This year, they're going to have new guidance.
Whatever that guidance, it's going to be new guidance.
and they're going to talk about, hey, they may come out with a new ATM on STRC and they may say,
hey, look, we have whatever left on it, $2, $3 billion left on it. We're going to increase that
to $8 billion. I don't know. And I think that's a great signal. I think, you know, something we've
been caught off guard, I think over the course of the years, there've been different ATM levels on
different preferred products. Some preferred products have had better product market fit
than others. What we're seeing now is that STRC, in fact, has the best product market fit
of any of the preferreds. And I think strategy is just reinforcing that. There's products being
built. I'm working on Buck, which is built on top of STRC. So for all these reasons, I think
Stretch is becoming more integrated. And I think the USD reserve shouldn't be overlooked in its
impact on the volatility. Let me share this quick chart here of the volatility of Stretch.
Because, yeah, here's the volatility on Stretch relative to the Bitcoin price. So Bitcoin
peaked at 125K, fell 30% down to 80K. And we saw this stretches volatility over a period of time.
And the volatility spiked to 50 vol during that crash to 92. This can't happen for a fixed income
product. This cannot happen. So it was really kind of bad for the equity. However, we're seeing this
collapse in volatility back and we've seen the real stabilization of price between 98 and 100.
And I really do, although the USD reserve was introduced before this collapse, I think the effects of this USD reserve is this diminishing volatility that will only continue as strategy becomes a more seasoned issuer.
So, you know, every month those dividends get paid is another month under strategy's belt.
These aren't going to look risky after strategy's been paying the stretch dividend for five years, for six years, for seven years.
And it's more over collateralized by Bitcoin, in my opinion.
yeah i i think i think i think you're right about this and i you know go ahead i was gonna say
before we move on from the uh from is the fed evil i do agree with you that the austerity is
just out of out of out of the question um that would be admitting a hard default which would
throw the entire world into chaos so that is that is not happening but um you know answering the
question is the fed evil i i have to say i have to say resounding yes uh for me um and and i i see
it as uh the enabling factor in uh like most of the world's like death and human suffering and
the reason i say that is because the only reason that the that world war one world war two and all
of the uh proxy wars that we've fought since have been able to proceed is because of the money
printer. If actual individual citizens had to be hit up to fund war bonds, there wouldn't have been
like half of the conflict. So I think I want to address what he said. So like, I think you're,
you're, you're grabbing the tail instead of the dog. And let me tell you why. The, the Federal
Reserve, right, is what allows the politicians to go to war, because it could be funded by the Fed.
So you're letting the politicians that run the fiscal responsibility and blaming the guy that's got a plug.
Look, do you blame Visa because you overspent?
Everybody's like, oh, they're evil because they charge 25%.
Look, do I think that they charge a very high rate on credit cards?
Yes, I do.
Do I think that that's fair?
No, but that's their business, right?
Do I blame Visa and MasterCard, right, for having those rates?
Or do I blame a person that rent, you know, was beyond their means?
And that's my question to you, Soleil.
Is it the politicians that decided to go to war and the fact that they could run a deficit, aren't those the real cause?
And the effect is that you're blaming the Fed?
No, the difference between the government politicians and the Fed is fake.
they're they're they're one in the same this is this is a a coordinated effort so i i blame them
both equally that's fair i think that's a fair take i would i would say you know it is a real
question of you know the you can weaponize federal deficits in a way that we've seen historically
during you know past conflicts sometimes to the benefit of the united states and other times
maybe used irresponsibly like during the vietnam war so that's definitely a difficult conversation
I mean, and so what is stretch and Bitcoin and credit kind of what is what is its response to federal deficits?
And so I think the thing we're talking about here, we're all kind of being around the bush of is that.
With this fiscal responsibility, real interest rates, the interest you're going to get on your money market fund or your bond is not going to outpace inflation or monetary debasement over the long run.
So as a private citizen or an institutional investor, there is no safe haven asset, no asset that gives you non duration liability like a fixed income bond or, you know, a corporate bond.
That outpaces debasement. Stretch is a short term duration instrument that, in fact, can outpace inflation without corporate risk or without underlying business risk.
It still has issuer risk from strategy, but it's backed by a currency that theoretically will continue to outperform U.S. dollars and reflect the productivity in society.
So I think that's why this new yield curve backed by Bitcoin is a solution for savers, a stretch being a solution for savers who understand that you can't hide from monetary debasement within the tools used for monetary debasement like, you know, U.S. government debt.
Yeah, I think it's a much more morally plausible to buy Stretch and have MSTR buy Bitcoin than to buy bonds and have the government do whatever the hell they're going to do with the money.
So I think that a pretty good overview of where we are with Stretch and how it all I just want to show you one quick thing on Stretch because the comments looking at this I going to share my desktop here for this and share window share this share this window
Okay.
So you should be able to see this.
So this comes out when they follow the 8K, strategies 8K.
And this is the latest one for January 20th.
The reason why I like this is because what it shows you here is that not only does it tell you that the shares sold and the dollar amount, it tells you how much is remaining on the ATM.
And so when you look at this for a stretch, you need to look at it.
There's $3.6 billion left on it.
On MSTR stock, there's only $8.4 billion.
On STRK, there's $20 billion.
So what I am guessing, I do not know this, right?
What I'm guessing is going to happen on February 5th, they're going to come up with their new plan for 2026.
And I think they're going to increase the ATM on STRC.
Do I know what to do?
Yeah, I agree.
It's just going to be increased.
21 billion.
Yeah, I agree.
They have to.
Right.
Same with MSCR Common.
I think MSCR Common will get a 40 billion and STRC will get like a 20 billion.
Yeah. And I think, you know, I've already done my calculation. I think that conservatively they could raise $21 billion this year at a average price of $125,000 per Bitcoin between now and the end of the year. I've calculated and I've already done a post on this and I said, I think they'll add, we'll get to about 830,000 Bitcoin by the end of the year. I think that's a conservative number.
I agree. I agree. I think they can get to a million this year potentially.
Yeah. And the other thing I'll say is what we've learned from this is that they can issue and raise money when they're at 3M NAV, when they're at 2M NAV, when they're at 1M NAV and actually below 1M NAV, they could raise money.
And so anybody said, oh, you know, as soon as they go negative M NAV, they're dead in the water.
That is not the case, if anything, because of the three fuel tanks, right?
MSTR, which is really based on the global amount of Bitcoin that they have, the 709,000
Bitcoins, right?
You've got the PREFs, which we think stretch STRC is because it's pegged is the best one,
you know, just in overall design because of the floating rate.
And then the third part is the $2.25 billion in cash.
Those three levers have fundamentally made it different than last year.
And I think that's the part that we're seeing.
So that's my takeaway.
Totally agree, Rain.
And think about it like this way.
Like if MSTR temporarily raises at a discount to MNAV, which they have historically, they
have raised a negative MNAVs in the 2022, 2023 bear market for people who weren't paying
attention, just like weren't following along at that point.
There is a precedent for this.
It's equivalent to a company operating at a loss for a short period of time to fund operations.
It's not the end of the world, in my opinion.
So capital raised to pay preferred dividends during a Bitcoin bear market.
I don't think it's that big a deal.
And even if they traded at 0.9 MNAV forever, but at 50% amplification, they could still outperform Bitcoin, right?
Yeah, completely.
Completely.
It's all about the leverage and capital structure, and they understand that.
And so that's why I think we'll see up to a 40% amplification potentially in the future.
So maybe we switch over, talk a little bit about the geopolitical issues going on.
We'll cover that.
Then we'll get into a little modeling.
Why don't we bring up your model after this geopolitical section on how many Bitcoin strategy we'll acquire this year?
I'll bring up my model. We'll compare notes and then we'll sign off for the evening.
I think that'll be a pretty comprehensive overview.
So the topics I did want to cover were specifically Japan, the Japan situation, Greenland situation, metals, what they're doing, Ray Dalio, his whole shtick.
Maybe cover Davos 2026. I know that's been going on the news.
and talk about junk credit spreads and how you know people are dumping their money into even you
know high risk debt just to get any sort of return on it because of the current environment which has
been tailwinds for bonds commodities and equities over the past year so in terms of the japan
situation uh the boj policy has raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 0.75
percent. This is their highest level since 1995. And this is the kind of narrative for
the yen carry trade unwind or the increase in interest rates from zero, the ZERP environment,
to this kind of higher rate. And the reason this could potentially unwind the yen carry trade
is a lot of traders and hedge fund investors, they go long the US dollar and short the yen
in the form of the corresponding interest rate bonds.
So when you're short the yen, if interest rates rise,
that could theoretically make the yen strengthen
and you'd lose money relative to your long position
where you're long the US dollar.
So you're borrowing yen at a very cheap interest rate
and you're investing it into US dollars
at a higher interest rate.
But if the interest rate on yen goes up,
then that spread that you're making goes down,
your principal moves,
and you could potentially get liquidated
if you're levered up a lot.
So that's a lot of the fear in the markets with regards to the yen carry trade.
Gray, what are your thoughts?
You've probably been seeing this on the news.
Look, I've been seeing this on the news.
A lot of this is just people making it.
Is this a big deal for the firms that have done this?
Sure.
But I'm old enough to remember the yen carry trade of August of 2024.
And you know what?
The world got over it because the yen carry trade is done with overnight financing.
And it's dynamically priced.
And do I think that there are hedge funds or positions that can get blown out?
Sure.
But we've seen liquidations happen in the Bitcoin market.
We've seen liquidations happen in every stock.
It's not that this does not exist.
So my view is, you know, you're getting this, oh, my God, the yen carry trade is blown up.
Look, they talk about the lost generation.
It took 35 years for the Japanese stock market to go from 1989 to 2025 to retake the all-time high.
There's a lost generation.
Look, if you were 25 years old in 1990, Dan, in 35 years from now, you'll be my age.
And the stock market, assume that we're at the all-time high now.
It dips, and then you get to my age, and it never retook the all-time high.
In a world of hurt.
It's the lost generation.
We're seeing this right now here with you and me.
That's the lost generation.
When they say the lost generation in Japan, that's what it means.
And so they speculated on real estate in the 80s.
Back in the olden days, whatever it was, Japanese real estate people bought Lincoln Center in New York City for like $900 million.
People are like, how could the Japanese?
I'm like, look, if you own Lincoln Center right there in New York City, right?
And they're going to give you $900 million and they're the biggest bidder.
You take the money.
They're giving it to you in dollars.
I mean, why would you ever do it?
People were upset about that in the old days.
What happened was that all blew up with the zero interest rates, 300% of debt to GDP.
People could not have kids.
And Japan yet is a very advanced society.
And people there, they don't like to finance things.
They save and then they buy things for cash.
So where are we today?
I don't think the US ends up like Japan.
Do I think that's something that we should look at and not do?
Sure.
we're 125 percent of debt to gdp yeah so we're not structurally like that um people in the u.s
love leasing cars right we like to borrow money in the u.s so we're in a we're in a different we
just have fico scores and people have a lot of no you're totally right like japan is a completely
different situation because the velocity of money never took hold so inflation never took root in
Japan the way it would in the US. I mean, Japan was the first experiment in QE in 2001. In 2001,
Japan tried quantitative easing, you know, purchasing government bonds and assets to
juice their equities markets, and it didn't work. It actually wasn't. I mean, it was
inflationary. It didn't rise asset prices. It didn't make asset prices rise.
Right. But I don't know who said this today. I think it was probably Rohan that said this today.
Um, it's the Michael Burry moment. It's not that the ZERP didn't work. The zero interest rate
program did not work in Japan. The problem was the duration. They're like, Oh, the, the cure
ended up being worse than the disease because it just pushed the duration. It pushed it out.
So you didn't have an all time high in the stock market for 35 years. Right. And, and Dan,
we've said this before, it kind of pains me that I've now become like a bond trader when I've net
The only bond I've ever owned are strategy preps.
It's not even a bond.
That's the only thing that I've ever purchased as a bond is strategy preps.
And because the market's trading sideways, hold your stack, the way I look at it.
And then when volatility comes back the way I like it, then I lever back up again.
The only thing I got to say is thank God for MetaPlanet.
probably saving an entire generation from becoming a next, you know, second lost generation.
You know, so that is a great insight. And let me tell you why I think it saves that generation.
It's not because of just MetaPlanet. It's because the young people are like,
wow, we could do something different. And that's the same thing that we see in the US. That's why
Dan is on this call is like, look, I'm not going to be, I'm not a boomer. I'm an old Gen Xer.
I'm not going to buy, you know, IBM and General Electric and Procter & Gamble and consumer goods and Philip Morris.
I'm going to buy tech companies.
Oh, that's not volatility.
I'm going to buy this dude who we don't know who he is.
Satoshi Nakamoto made this thing called magic internet money called Bitcoin.
And it's just it's mined on computers.
Right.
And then you can't touch it, but you can send it anywhere in the world.
and nobody sets the price like gold.
And it's divisible into 100 million pieces.
And people think that because you could do that
with one pizza, we could feed the world.
That's a thing I laid on because there's some PhD guys.
But that's where we are today.
And so we have the young people that are like,
you know what?
I'm going to bet on this dude, Satoshi Nakamoto,
because I don't trust the central banks.
And we're like, cool.
And Michael Saylor, like, well, let's kind of like peg it,
strip out all the volatility and pay you 11% a year.
So you don't have to sell your Bitcoin.
I'm like, wow, that's cool.
It's a big idea.
And I mean, I remember talking about this as a group over a year ago saying,
you know, he could create a stable coin because we were talking about like the tether economics.
That's what he did.
So it's pretty amazing.
I think maybe we hop right into the Ray Daly.
So I don't even want to cover his stuff.
We could talk a little bit about gold, but any final thoughts on macro environments?
We can talk credit spreads.
Let's just leave this one open.
We can kind of riff on it.
Let's talk about Ray Dalio for a minute.
Look, he's done two videos on X.
If you want to do four years of economics in 20 minutes, just type in Ray Dalio and one
comes up with 58 million views.
It's how the economic machine works.
And then the other one's a changing world order.
there is no economic professor that can make a video or make a PowerPoint presentation to do what
he does in 20 minutes. Every year I rewatch both of those. You should, everybody should watch those.
And if you were to show it to any economics professor, they'd be like,
oh, I've been telling you this. No, you don't because you need four years of drivel in order
for me to understand one 10th of what he said in 20 minutes. So Ray Dalio, highest respect for him.
phenomenally wealthy guy. Bridgewater is one of the top hedge funds in the world. Awesome.
I don't know why he really doesn't get Bitcoin. He kind of does, but doesn't. And it's like the
weirdest thing. And my conversation with very smart people about this that have met him said,
you know, and they look at me and they said, you know, it's really age related.
He's probably 70 something years old. And it's not that he's not smart enough. It's just that
He's not it's just not the product of his generation.
So I'm about I know somebody always says my 85 year old grandpa got Bitcoin.
That's that's one out of a million.
There's 300 of them in America.
Again, he's a big advocate of gold, right?
As kind of the deflation hedge as the new monetary order.
But that ship has sailed, in my opinion.
I think to say the monetization of gold is the future is more so like people are flooding
back to noah's ark amidst this currency debasement fiasco but i don't think you know we're looking at
the monetization of a internet native digital currency that has the deflationary properties
that align with kind of an ai native world so that's the upside and he does recommend a small
portfolio allocation to bitcoin these days it sounds like so he's i mean he's listening to
someone smart if he doesn't believe in himself i agree with you how good those videos are though
uh grain because as soon as i saw change the world order i immediately saved it permanently in a
folder you know i'm like okay if i want to watch this again you know i will um the only thing is
like it kind of just tells you how the world has worked and explains pre-bitcoin and so it's good
good to understand how that that's all working and kind of like makes Bitcoin necessary.
You know, hopefully he does make, he makes me a little suspicious when he calls,
when he starts talking about beautiful deleveraging, you know, trying to like,
basically that's code for soft landing kind of thing. I hope we end up with a soft landing
because the hard landings aren't pretty. But yeah, if he, if he starts to get Bitcoin,
I hope he comes out with a new video and just gets bullish on Bitcoin or something.
That would be awesome.
I agree.
And I think a lot of people like to take the extreme cases here that like either we're going to have this massive hard landing and debt crisis where, you know, auctions, bond auctions fail or we have hyperinflation.
inflation. I mean, over the past 20 years, we've had this same debt crisis and federal deficit,
fiscal deficit, and we've slowly debased the currency. I expect for the next 20 years,
and this is kind of the case for stable coins and the case for a lot of things like stretch
that are fiat Bitcoin hybrids, that monetary debasing is just going to continue exponentially,
but at a relatively tame rate. And you have to be holding deflation hedges or inflation hedges
during that period of time. So I think that's kind of my takeaway.
So am I on mute? No, you're good. Okay. So I just posted the video, how the economic machine works,
and then there's the other one, changing world order. Look, that explains the whole credit market
and explains it if you want to go buy a beer in a bar, that the benefit is that you could buy more
beer if there's credit. If there's only on cash, you got to wait till payday if you're out of money.
Now, do I think that's necessarily a good idea?
No, because in college I went to the bar, right?
And so anyway, so with that said, look, what do I think about Bitcoin?
In a Netflix world, I don't want to be blockbuster.
And that's the difference between gold and Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is Netflix.
You can transport it.
People didn't stop watching movies.
They just didn't want to go drive to a store to go get it.
right and that's what happened and so um and you could have something stay like i believe
netflix stopped shipping dvds like two years ago you're like what do you mean they're still
shipping dvds right there are people that just didn't didn't want to download stuff or didn't
want to buy a new tv or whatever it was they had a dvd player that worked fine so my takeaway with
this i don't know why you know for us younger generation people we get technology and i'm a
tech guy.
What else is on the agenda?
That's pretty much it for the macro.
I think we have one more section.
It's kind of the MSTR models we're all building.
Grant, I really want to see yours as well.
Do you want to share yours And I share mine and we can You muted You muted Grant Before I pull up my model let do the pitch again for us to all meet in Las Vegas
Let's do it.
We'll share the Luma invite.
And look, we're over 100 people that are coming to this.
We have a cap at 150.
I think that there are going to be people there that have not been announced yet.
That might be interesting.
so i would tell you i can second that yeah i've heard yeah really really noteworthy
we're hearing some rumblings and i would also say this is that um this is a key part look if you
want to meet sailor and i've said this i think last week uh don't don't ask him a dumb question
i mean you could it might not go well but um what i would say what i would say is that if you want
to meet sailor i would say get out to las vegas show up there and i think most people get a chance
to meet him and talk to him that come to the event and walk up and say hi you can take a picture with
him you can tell him whatever you want so i think that's a big deal so i i would recommend coming
uh how my calculation it's it's in my i'm going to share my desk share my my window
share this window so let me blow this up so we can okay i'm sharing is it sharing yet
that's it not yet
it says stop sharing screen maybe it didn't work try again okay i'll try again
while you're doing that i just want to say thank god for dan for
bringing the uh age average under 40 for this podcast
I appreciate that.
Yeah.
You got two old guys.
So here's my calculation on equity.
And let me stop in this window.
I will make this smaller.
Get rid of this.
Okay.
So right now they have 709,000 Bitcoin is the current moat.
And they have 15 times the other competitors.
At the end of the year, on December 31st, they had 672,500 Bitcoins.
I said they're just going to increase it by 25%.
That's not the real BTC yield.
I just said conservatively, if they grow this at 25%, that means they'd have 840,000.
The reason why I picked that number was I assumed that the average purchase price would be $125,000, which you see here, and $125,000 times 168,000.
Bitcoin is $21 billion deployed.
That was a complete stroke of luck that it worked out to be $21 billion.
So I just said, what happens if they do 25% in acquisition?
They'd have to raise $21 billion for the year.
sailor likes 21 billion dollars i think that would be a conservative number so dan does that
make sense so i think so too i think that's super in the ballpark especially because these
these bitcoin numbers will get larger and larger and larger as they it's it's technically
exponential like bitcoin yield per share is a decaying exponential the amount of bitcoin they
own year over year with the bitcoin price constant is exponential but bitcoin's price
go up so there's so many factors here to be weighed in the models i'm going to be a little
more precise with what you just said even if the um if the percentage drops the nominal amounts in
bitcoin keep on going up because the base is large so the percentage could drop a little bit that's
where people like oh the diminishing returns set in that's one of the one of the things that we see
all the time diminishing returns do i think that even if my 25 number is a little bit high it could
drop down now i didn't say anything about mnav now if mnav goes positive this is where things get a
little weird because that means bitcoin is probably running and that means that the average price of
bitcoin goes up right so how did you model it i did pretty much very similarly grain so this is
the model i've been working on for over a year now and you know we update it periodically it's got
got the Bitcoin, the Bitcoin price, dollar capital raised total, convertible debt. So I just have
that rolling off the balance sheet based on the X. Oh my God. We got to stop right there for a
second. Strategy announced today that their prefs are larger in a dollar amount than the convert,
than the converts. Great point. Yeah. Super good point. I knew that that was important,
but I didn't know that they were going to announce that. When they announced that, I was like, oh,
So I knew it was important.
I knew that they probably knew it was important.
But that was a big metric for them.
I will guess here, and I want to hear what you're going to say, Dan, about this, because this is a good aside here.
I think that when the prefs are equal to double the converts, that's where the converts really, the delta hedging on the converts really begins to fade away.
I don't have any, because it becomes a much smaller percentage of the overall market cap.
That's my idea.
What do you think?
Yeah, I totally agree.
I mean, I think we learned those dynamics the hard way last year.
But to me, it seems like as long as there's demand for stretch, these converts will scale aggressively over the next year.
Sorry, these prefs will scale aggressively over the next year.
This is the target debt that I use broadly as just the 30% amplification ratio.
This is the actual debt.
So you have to include the converts so long as they're still in the balance sheet as part of the amplification ratio.
But then these are the outstanding prefs.
So, you know, in this bull case, essentially power law of Bitcoin growth, we get to a million Bitcoin in 2034.
Hold up a second here.
Can you blow this up and go to December of 2026?
Absolutely.
So you're saying that they will go, they'll be at one.
You're saying they're going to add from 700,000, right?
Let's just say it was 700,000.
So you're going to add 500,000 Bitcoins in 2026.
I mean, I think that's a lot and I don't really see that happening because I have these low Bitcoin prices.
So that's the thing about these models, right?
You have like multiple independent variables.
If the Bitcoin price is lower and they still are able to issue this amount of ATM.
And so, Grant, let me add one more input for you.
This is assuming the ATM $500 million a week in common equity for the next three years as well.
Okay.
So that's why these numbers are crazy.
I just want to preface it with that.
Yeah, yeah.
So can you just do real quick, can you highlight column B, the BTC price, and can you just average that for 2026?
Just the starting part and see if you can just get a quick average.
Just say it's 100.
It's 100,000.
You're saying $100,000.
So I think that's the difference between mine and yours.
I'm saying that their average buy would be $125,000, assuming the price goes to $150,000.
So I think you could be right.
If the price of Bitcoin trades sideways for this whole year, which I hope doesn't happen, that's not my model.
That's yours.
I think that if Bitcoin retakes its all-time high, which I think it will, which is $126,000,
And I think if it goes to 150 before the end of the year, I think that they could raise $21 billion.
How many billions of dollars do you think that they could raise in?
So these numbers are crazy, right?
This is roughly $50 billion in 2026 because of-
Okay, so you're about double me.
I said 21 and you said 56.
Well, maybe closer, you're triple.
Okay.
you said tony one yeah i'm about 50. so i'm about 50. about double okay so that that's fair enough
so you got so the only limiting factor like that's what this comes down to now and i wrote a little
article about this it's like so the only limiting factor on the amount of capital they can raise
based on this new model where they're able to issue mstr common at 1xm nav is how much demand
there is for stretch because what we're observing in real time over the past few weeks is that so
long as there's demand for stretch they will sell both the stretch to people and they will expand
their balance sheet to accommodate the stretch on the balance sheet right the stretch liability
so as long as people are going to be buying stretch and i don't see any reason why the demand for an
11 yielding short duration perpetual fixed income product would diminish i think it will only
increase over time there seems to be an unlimited amount of capital that could flow into stretch
Like that's the bull case here.
I think they're going to have to announce an 8282 plan on February 5th.
And let me just get down to these crazy numbers here.
Or something similar.
So this is December of 2035.
My assumed Bitcoin price is 1.5 million.
So that's obviously that's 10 years from now.
That's a long time.
And in this model, I'm saying that strategy has acquired 4.8 million Bitcoins, right?
That is an insane number relative to the circulating supply of Bitcoin, which estimates are around 16.5 million of active coins, right?
I think this strategy model, this exponential growth in both stretch and the underlying MSTR, equity buying Bitcoin,
could be the thing that bootstraps Bitcoin into this kind of exponential territory.
And I think there's a real bull case for Bitcoin being higher than 1.5 billion in 2035
because of the demand stretch creates for Bitcoin. And I think that's kind of my new thinking with
regards to how this market evolves. And if we just continue on this trajectory, you know,
the market caps in 2035 are uh two trillion in prefs two trillion in prefs five trillion
in mstr common are the numbers i get to which are insane right can you imagine we had a trillion
dollar pref market cap like that that's beyond me you know look do i think that's possible sure i
I mean, the shit that I've seen in eight years being on my own Bitcoin standard is crazy.
So, look, I think that what I can tell you is that I'm not betting on the old stuff.
You're not making better than 10% a year.
Not good, right?
And so, stretch.
If you can't out trade 11%, right?
That's the new hurdle rate, right?
And that's paid monthly.
Exactly.
Right.
And the other thing is they now posted on the strategy website,
they just posted each dividend, the date and how much it paid.
And so I was looking at it started like 89 cents, 90 cents, whatever it is.
You're like, oh, it's 95 cents per share.
Yeah, but the share is only a hundred bucks, right?
So I think that's the part where people are not, you just multiply it out by how many shares you have.
So I think that that's the interesting thing.
So anyway, with that said, I hope that I'm right with how many shares, how many Bitcoin strategy gets, because that means the price of Bitcoin goes up.
And I don't think that we know yet.
But the MNAV, I think that once that gets repriced, I think that we could see 1.5, 2x, 3x.
I don't think we go to a crazy multiple, but there's no reason why that can't go higher.
I think that everybody will be gun shy if the multiple goes above 1.5x, right?
Because he'll probably want an ATM and buy more Bitcoin.
But he does have a hard factor here on the converts.
the converts do have maturity dates and conversion prices and from that perspective he does have to
get the stock price out that's well known we've talked about this before it's on their website
they do have a 672 number i believe in 2028 is that a you know a while off sure but um
i'll pull it up real quick here debt yeah so the 672 sorry is converts in uh the maturity date is
December 1st of 2029 of 672. So that stock price, and by the way, if it's a 50 vol stock,
you want the stock to be at 1200 bucks. You don't want it to be, oh, the convert price is 672. Oh,
we got the thing to 673. No, you want to have plenty of buffer in there for it to be
double that in case it melts down a little bit, you know, three months before that happens.
and so i think that's where we see it happening but i think we covered a lot of ground tonight
oh yeah i totally agree you guys want to do final thoughts just on the
broader markets the bickle and credit markets anything else and then sign off for the evening
i guess our stamina is not the same without jeff here
yeah i mean i'll give my final thoughts look uh i think that things have fundamentally changed
on strategy. And it goes back to the three fuel tanks. It's the Bitcoin, it's the prefs, which is
STRC, and it's the cash. And if people are like, whoa, whoa, whoa, you know, Grain or Mike, whatever
the hell your name is, you keep on changing your view on strategy. Like, yeah, because they keep
on doing different stuff. What's the different stuff? December 1st, we found out about $1.4
billion. Now it's $2.25 billion in cash. Seven weeks old. STRC, January 7th, that's when it
maintain the peg, right, of above 100 bucks. So why do I look at things differently? Because the
information is fundamentally changed, right? And I think that's where we are. And I, you know,
look, people are going to, I'll predict the future. I haven't checked on it. But you know,
we're going to go to another government shutdown. Don't tell Congress, right? They kicked the can
down the road. I don't think they fixed that. So anyway, we're going to have the same thing
repeat over again. So I don't, I, so like, do I think that all politicians suck? Yeah, I do. I
agree with you. High five. Anyway, that's my final thought. So yeah, for me, um, you know,
I'm always, I'm always bullish and I think there are tons of reasons to be bullish for 2026,
but in the short term, I'm going to, I'm going to customize this quote to apply to Bitcoin. I heard
somebody in TradFi say it, but there's two kinds of short-term price action predictions
with respect to Bitcoin.
There are those who don't know what the price will do, and there are people who don't know
that they don't know.
So Bitcoin can go up, it can go down, it can do whatever the heck it wants to do, but long
term we know it's going up forever, and everything for 2026 is aligned to be what we had hoped
2025 would be.
Well said, Sol. I totally agree. I think the macro looks fine. If nothing else, it's tough
to say. I think a lot of people are making calls in both directions without full information.
In terms of the Bitcoin credit market, I think Stretch is stronger than ever. I think it's
quite remarkable that the MSTR is traded off 70%, but Stretch is maintaining its peg.
So clearly the people buying these preferred instruments are confident in the collateral
assets that strategy holds on their balance sheet. So that provides kind of reinsurance.
And I think that the model is being proven out in real time that Suresh can, in fact,
be a low volatility, sort of stable yield bearing asset. And I think it's really easy to lose
focus and understand these things compound forever, right? Like these are perpetual preferred
products, the key word being perpetual, and Bitcoin's a perpetual digital store of value.
So, you know, two years, three years, four years, five years, six years.
What's the market cap of these instruments?
What is the bid, the perpetual bid on Bitcoin?
And, you know, how do these markets evolve and how much money flows into them?
So I think it's definitely an interesting thought experiment.
And I'm super excited for the future.
Thanks for watching, guys.
Hey, thanks, everybody, for joining.
Really appreciate it.
Bye, guys.
Good night.
Bye.