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Thank you.

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SILENT F HISPANIA

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Grab that cash flow

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we're going to get after it. October, we made it. We're finally in October. Q4. Let's go.

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A lot of excitement here. And yeah, can't wait to get into it. So topics for today.

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October, off to a hot start. We're going to go into strategy statistics and a little bit about

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the preferreds because we saw some nice action there today. Get into some macro. We've got some

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of our macro research analyst, Dan and Dan Hillary, both Dan's on stage here today.

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Going to get into some macro, talk energy, precious metals, AI and Bitcoin and the convergence

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of all of those things.

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Talk a little bit about AI productivity, CAMT, corporate alternative minimum tax.

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I've got a new series that I'm starting here today called the bad bond of the week.

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So we're going to look at just a bad bond and compare it to the strategy perhaps.

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I think that'll be a good time.

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Bitcoin treasury companies, have we seen the bottom?

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And what is the end of Q4 look like? So obviously a lot to talk about here. Everything's moving. I

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feel like there's a lot of frenzy happening all over the place and everybody is looking to buy

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as much Bitcoin as humanly possible. So yeah, let's get cooking. A lot to talk about. Let me

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pull this screen down here. So for those of you, if this is your first time watching True North,

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the investment grade Bitcoin podcast, what do we do? We are here every week or as many weeks as

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possible to talk about the front edge, the cutting edge of the Bitcoin security landscape. So

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everything happening in the securitized world of Bitcoin, we're talking Bitcoin equities,

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Bitcoin treasury companies, Bitcoin backed fixed income, how these things compare,

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thinking through valuations, thinking about market impacts, and how all this stuff fits together.

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So a lot of this is really novel. Many of the people on the screen work in the industry and

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have a unique perspective into what's going on behind the scenes.

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And I think that's where we add a lot of value to what's happening here.

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So yeah, let's get into this.

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First off, we've got a word from Tim Kotzman.

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Ladies and gentlemen, what you're about to hear may be amazing, but it is not financial

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advice.

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It's for informational and educational purposes only.

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Jeff, back to you.

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There we go.

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So none of this is financial advice and Tim was just in BTC DC.

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He may join us here a few minutes later and give us a rundown of what's happened in DC

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just at the front line there.

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And then next the, I've got a quick word from our unofficial sponsor.

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ATM is safe.

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Your banks are safe.

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There's enough cash in the financial system and there is an infinite amount of cash at

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the Federal Reserve.

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An infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve.

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I have an infinite amount of cash at the Federal Reserve.

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Yeah, we totally sold out.

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We've got the Federal Reserve as our unofficial sponsor, and we're ready to rip here.

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Okay, without further ado, we are going to get into strategy statistics because I think this is good.

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We cover this every week, leverage profile, what's happening in the market, and how this has changed over time.

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So as of today, the Bitcoin price is at $118,560, somewhere around there.

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Bitcoin held, strategy holds $640,031 Bitcoin on the balance sheet.

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They've got 75.8, almost $76 billion of assets, $8.2 billion of debt, $6.5 billion of preferred

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stock. So if you just take the assets minus the $8.2 billion of debt, you get $67 billion of net

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assets. This is a ton of capital, an absolute ton of capital. The net assets on the balance sheet

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by itself would be close to top 150 companies in terms of market cap on the planet. So this is just,

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It's a ton of money. One of the largest treasuries in the equity market. You think about

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the exposure here to the net capital after four years of the preferred dividend payments,

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you're still talking about $64 billion. So we've got tons of coverage on the liabilities that

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they've got in the balance sheet. You look at just general nominal leverage ratios, taking the sum

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of the debt and the preferred stock around a 19.5% leverage ratio. Debt coverage multiple,

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this is just taking a pure, the debt, $8.2 billion of debt relative to the 75,

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about $76 billion of assets. You've got a debt coverage multiple of 9.2.

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In order for the Bitcoin price to be less than the assets on the balance sheet,

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or in order for the Bitcoin price, or in order for the assets on MSTR's balance sheet,

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to be worth less than the debt and the liabilities on the balance sheet. The price of Bitcoin is to

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go down to $23,166 and stay there for an extended period of time before there even

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remotely becomes any issue. So about an 80% drawdown would be necessary from here.

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So thinking this is a very, very, very healthy balance sheet and continues to be a very healthy

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balance sheet. So yeah, it's all exciting. Also, what did, oh, here we go. We just finished Q3.

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So Q3 closed yesterday on an earnings per share basis. We think the Q3 estimate earnings per

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share is around $10, maybe plus or minus a dollar or two as a function of tax deferred liability

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and where that hits the balance sheet. And then obviously the operating business

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and any one-off expenses that happen here and there. But what do we know? The last day Bitcoin

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has gone from 114,000 to 118,000. So already looking at Q4, strategy is sitting on a $2.4

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billion gain on Bitcoin held from Q3. And that would be so far one day through Q4, around a $6.4

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dollar earning per share estimate for Q4. Off to a great start. October is hitting. We've got

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some guidance from the IRS on corporate alternative minimum tax. So that very one-off piece of FUD

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where if a company has more than a billion dollars of net income a year, they have a corporate

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alternative minimum tax, which is around 15%. That would apply to any net income that a company

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experiences. So that has gone away, which was causing some concern and FUD within the industry

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because strategy was sitting on significant, quote unquote, net income from FASB fair value

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accounting, yet they were unrealized gains. So the concern was they would have to sell Bitcoin to

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pay off the corporate alternative minimum tax, which was a Biden era tax inflation reduction act

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measure. So all really positive guidance. Everything seems like all of the roadblocks

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are removed. FUD is just getting out of the way. It seems like things are like rare and ready to go.

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So yeah. What do we think, guys? How are we feeling? We're bullish. Things feel good. What's

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cooking. Dan, I know both Dan's feel some kind of way. You guys, on Monday when we were talking

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through everything, you're fired up on energy, you're fired up on precious metals. Things are

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ready to rip. What do you think? Okay. Yeah. Well, first, I think we got to take the over-under

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on if we're going to break 120 in this live stream here. Ah, that's a great point earlier.

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So, I mean, that's the real news. That is the real news. 120 on the live stream. Yes,

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or no and then 150 by end of year yeah end of october end of end of 150 end of october you guys

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see the log pilot if you overlay the 23 and 24 fractals over the current pricing it gets us right

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to about 160 170 180. aps k32 is power law for your cycle a cycle cloud average is like october

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november is the sweet spot uh equities markets absolutely ripping no sign of slowing down

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copper breaking out gold already had its move i mean literally everything is absolutely perfect

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for a move in the next 60 days like everything in my opinion prime culture stock market's ripping

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there's a wall of worry right now and cmc exactly you can see fear greeds at 40.

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what is going on this is the most bullish setup i've ever seen

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government shut down government can't do anything like uh the only more bull shut up was last fall

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in the fall before that

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it just seems like everything is getting set up dan can you share any of those images those fractals

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that you pulled up let's take a look let me go let me go yeah while he's fetching that i do

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want to say like the dollars in decline we've got sitting president who's openly saying that that

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he wants a weaker dollar um i mean debt surging feds you know compromised in quotes um so i i

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think it's just all leading to a debt super or a bitcoin super cycle um we've got yeah i think on

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the hurdle rate you guys were chatting about that too yes there's a there's a multi-decade uh decline

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in the DXY.

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And I'll pull it up here.

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And when you put it in log format,

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it...

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Yeah, you guys are looking at 2008 and 1992,

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I believe, for the macro setup.

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And then how this one's exponentially greater.

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Yeah, you can see it pretty clearly here.

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Maybe if I pull...

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This is like a structural,

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like multi-decade decline in...

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In the dollar.

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Got it, got it.

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Yeah.

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Yeah. So this is something that Matt has been watching for the last 15 years in his career as a fixed income guy. He's been watching the dollar and consistently hitting up against resistance and then coming down. And you've got this multi-decade structural decline.

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And we're, I think, getting to a point here, looking in the last couple of years, 18 or 21, where effectively the DXY, if it fails to see support here at the 2018 or 2020 bottoms, it could fall drastically.

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drastically, like to the 70s, 60s or 70s, thinking about just fundamental support levels.

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And that could be very, very similar to some of these large declines that have happened in history.

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So like 2001, large decline in the dollar to 1984, large decline in the dollar. And that would be a

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mega setup for a super cycle in the price of Bitcoin. And what does a super cycle mean? It's

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just, it's up and to the right with very little room or opportunity for like good entry points.

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And we talked about looking at the history of Apple, the price of Apple over time experienced

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a super cycle from, what was this? It was from 2003. Yeah, here it is. From 2003 to where we are

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today, Apple has effectively experienced a super cycle in and of itself. Maybe I can make this a

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bit bigger and speak for yourself jeff i would have i would have entered uh call options in the 2008

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bottom you would have went really long right here yeah and i would have entered long there

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sitting in cash and entered bottom do you guys remember that uh that sailor interview where he

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where he calls people who are trading apple in 2011 from like two dollars a share to two dollars

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and 30 cents a share he said it's a sign of sign of lesser intelligence sorry honey is in front of

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the steamroller for sure jeff i'll throw my screen up here um yeah go ahead

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yeah these are so these are the two

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two fractals that

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Can you see that?

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Okay.

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Yeah, this is...

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So if you believe in sort of a decreasing...

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Make it bigger.

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If you believe in a decreasing CAGR for Bitcoin from like 50 down to 40 down to 30,

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and you extrapolate that average trend out forward,

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and then you look at kind of the deviation from that average trend above and below,

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you get this kind of overlay.

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And so what the cloud represents are the past cycles moved forward and then adjusted for the decreasing CAGR or decreasing volatility of Bitcoin over time.

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And the red line is how we've shaped up over the past kind of couple of years relative to the averages.

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So the average is represented by this dark blue line here.

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And I was looking at this chart and structuring my options call spreads in the hedge fund right for this peak.

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And I'm like, I don't know if this is going to hold.

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We need to start moving on October 1st.

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And today is in fact, October 1st, we start moving.

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So this may just be folklore, but we'll see what happens.

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It'd be quite remarkable if this continues to hold.

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And then I have one more that I think is of interest to people This is more of like a general kind of TA thing seasonality thing but this is the fractal that log pilot did this he kind of man um so this is the current kind of yeah this is the

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current price we're sitting on october 1st and these are the two fractals from 23 and 24

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overlaid uh from the current move uh which is quite interesting considering those price targets so

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What is that put the price? What are we thinking on price targets for end of,

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end of the year based on this?

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Okay. So here is one fifth, this is one 51. Well, this is one 96.

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Yeah.

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So these fractal patterns are saying we could get anywhere between one 50 and

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one 80 by end of year. I mean, the other cycle cloud said the same thing.

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That's at least my target, like something, something above one 50,

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something low on 80,

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I think would be like a pretty good local top for the next short term.

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period of time. And then it rips your face off and keeps on going.

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It keeps on checking away. Maybe it goes to a million dollars.

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That would be a bad scenario, I think, for a lot of people.

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11-8-2025-444. Exactly.

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As the prophecy says. Mason and I

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had a little convo with Josh.

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There's credence to what he's saying. Bitcoin, we forget how quick it moves, but it

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does move quite quickly. I think the interesting point is like you look at the move in 23 from 25K

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to, you know, 75K, that was a quite, quite a short period of time, right? That was, what was it? I

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think it was October to March was that triple and the market cap wasn't materially that different

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from where it is today. So that's what I would say. Yeah, it can move quickly. It's like 50 days,

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right? And most of the action happens in 10 days, 10 to 15 days, like 80 or 90% of the action

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happens in a very short period of time which is kind of throws credence on it's really difficult

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to find good entry points on these things like it in and out at any given time because it can move

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so quickly against you i mean just just looking about i know before the stream adrian and i were

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talking that it seemed like a lot of people were shaken out of just mstr a couple days ago and it

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you know bottomed out to 294 or 296 or something like that and what after market today was at like

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340. And it's like two days, two days, two trading days difference. And it's a completely

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different story. So it's difficult to find really, really good spots. So it's helpful to just take

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that long-term perspective. Think about like, why am I holding these things? What's the purpose of

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holding an equity? How quickly do you need it? Be careful with leverage. Think through positioning

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and sizing. And that's what we're here to kind of think through all of this stuff.

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Yeah, I think position sizing is an underrated portion of just general like retail and personal

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investment portfolio construction. But people don't talk about it enough. It's just like this

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asset, this asset, Bitcoin, this asset, this auction, whatever. But like position sizing is

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actually how the money's been. Like in poker, like the only thing you can do in poker is decide how

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much to bet and if to bet. And, you know, investing is much the same thing. So how much do you put in

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this position how much do you allocate in msdr versus bitcoin how much do you allocate in asst

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how much do you allocate in this and the next thing and i think uh that's like a really hard

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question and everyone has to answer that themselves i agree i actually rotated a lot of my nvidia

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and palantir profits into mstr below 300 that was the move i was waiting for and it's working out so

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far um i don't think that we're going to hit 444 though i think that's virtually zero chance of

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happening but that's just my opinion but i do think we could hit like 180 eventually oh eventually

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absolutely this year no one of the one of the funny things i think about with this is just like

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yeah we talk about price targets what it might go to and then it's like okay then what

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you know and then what like all the the the plumbing the infrastructure of this game has

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completely changed like you've got corporations that are buying bitcoin forever all of the lettuce

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hands are getting shaken out they sold for billions of dollars 80 000 bitcoin getting sold for

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nine billion dollars or whatever and okay boom that's gone how many of those guys are left

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or gals i guess that could be holding bitcoin that chinese lady that stole all the bitcoin from

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those people but uh the like how many of those people are left and the the game and the structure

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of the game has changed and where does that capital flow like what's the next four years look like i

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mean i'm not gonna just delete unless bitcoin goes to 10 million tomorrow i'm not just gonna

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like delete my twitter and walk away and get out of here like you know i've got i've got work to do

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and it takes all of us to you know push this monetary system forward and you know if it goes

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to 180 great like i'm not gonna exit to dollars um anytime soon if bitcoin has 10 million though

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i'm gonna be belligerent as i'm not going to be held responsible for what i do online

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i mean i think that's a cool thing

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bitcoin is a reminder that time is the only scarcity because you've got infinite time you

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could theoretically have the smallest one satoshi would make you rich on an infinite timeline

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but right i mean we don't have infinite time but bitcoin is time yeah

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Bitcoin is time. Bitcoin has created its own version of time. Each block has created its own

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version of time. But anyway, this concept is interesting thinking about valuation. And one

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thing that has happened in the last month, there was a lot of noise about S&P 500, strategy

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potentially getting in the S&P 500, them getting snubbed, Apple and Robinhood got in,

224
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And StrategyNow has had their second positive quarter in a row.

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We know this because the books closed yesterday and the Bitcoin price is high.

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So we know that they're going to have two positive quarters in a row.

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And it was pretty fascinating.

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I did a quick analysis.

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I'm just going to share my screen on this too.

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I made a Twitter post on it.

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The comparison of Apple Oven to MSTR on just some general metrics.

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Actually, first of all, let's look at Apple Oven.

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Apple oven in the last 25 days is up 49%. Robin hood in the last 25 days is up 46%

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since the announcement that they're in the S and P 500. So some significant movements there,

235
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which is pretty wild to see. And then I wanted to look at Apple oven next to MSTR,

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just for some comparison, because at one point in time, Adrian, we talked about this. This was like

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last June, July, Apple oven and MSTR were like the same market cap. And they were going back and

238
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forth. It was like Apple and MST, Apple and MST are. And now Apple oven is at like a $250

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billion market cap. And so I just look, I wanted to look at some of the metrics, given that the

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performance has been pretty high since they're including the SB 500, the PE ratio, Apple oven

241
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PE ratio, 91 versus MST are six and a half. So 13 times different. Obviously Apple oven holds zero

242
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Bitcoin. So a hundred percent different, uh, the price to book ratio or the technical M nav. So

243
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like, uh, the multiple market cap, multiple relative to the assets, the company holds

244
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Apple oven has 194 X price to book ratio. And MSDR has a one and a half X price to book ratio.

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So 132 times different debt to equity ratio, 300% verse 15%. So hyper leverage versus not

246
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very leveraged and trailing 12 months net income 2.4 billion versus 14.4 billion so

247
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it seems like there's a massive disconnect here uh in the market and just how things are valued and

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how uh things are seen and it's been very clear like you go into different avenues you look at

249
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different places look at linkedin look at uh you know even what's happening on instagram or tick

250
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talk and the conversation about the technical value or what companies hold is just non-existent

251
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that's not really there and it's just an interesting dynamic when you actually look under the hood on

252
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some of those stuff what do you guys think no i agree so the disconnect you're talking about is

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kind of what i've been touching on with like the um earnings for share calls that we've had last

254
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last quarter now that we're waiting to see where the market's gonna say this quarter the fact that

255
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um a lot of people are essentially discounting the bitcoin business shows that it's going to take a

256
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little bit more time for the market to i think the market understands what's going on but it's

257
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a matter of acceptance i think bitcoin has been i think it's been validated but i don't think it's

258
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been legitimized and the difference between those two is legitimized means strategies in s p 500

259
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and bitcoin based earnings are considered a valid metric that the entire market recognizes and then

260
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once that happens i think the floodgates open i think we talked about this last week um but there

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is a wide disconnect in the fact that app 11 of all companies can have that high of a multiple

262
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while mstr is at 1.5 and people are calling it overvalued that's a wide disconnect in the way

263
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that the market views valuation the way the market views bitcoin and i think that's going to reconcile

264
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itself but until then that's when we make hay and that's when we make money that's when we build our

265
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positions and yeah i mean i mean i'll hop in there i completely disagree because i don't think m nav

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over a commodity like bitcoin is anything like a pde over a potential growth equity right that's a

267
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that's a future expectation of cash flows whereas with bitcoin btc yields a future expectation of

268
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btc per share and then you could argue maybe the treasury operation should have a should garner a

269
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a much higher multiple because BTC gain is a forward-looking US-denominated equity or US-denominated

270
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figure, USD-denominated figure that could garner a growth multiple on it. But if the company's

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willing to issue equity aggressively at certain prices above MNAV, they're essentially valuing

272
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their business for the market. So that's the part I don't understand. You look at the way Berkshire

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Hathaway and Warren Buffett did equity issuances when they believe the book value plus the

274
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value of the entity was above the fair value of the tire package, they'd issue equity into the

275
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market. So I think prices at which equity is issued is a huge kind of important factor of

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this whole equation. Yeah, it's like a supply and demand thing. You've got more supply coming into

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the market, which does impact like all of these metrics, right? You've got more just general stock

278
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that's trading in the market. So that should theoretically drop multiple. I think that math

279
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and the logic definitely makes sense.

280
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I think one of the interesting components

281
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to thinking about this though

282
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is like what's terminal velocity look like

283
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and does the company get valued

284
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at less than its market cap

285
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or less than the value of the value that it holds?

286
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You know what I mean?

287
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And what about that rate of change

288
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of the value that it holds?

289
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and is should like revenue should capital raised on the preferred equity instruments should that be

290
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thought of as revenue and should the net gain on every single one of those equity instruments sold

291
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should that be income and what is the growth of that income i think that's a really interesting

292
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way to think about it. And I've thought about that too, Jeff. And I completely disagree. Like,

293
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I don't think that's the way you would value it, but I totally see how you could make an argument

294
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for it. So I'd be willing to get into that a little bit. Yeah. It's just, it's novel, right?

295
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Like, and I know people yell at me about this all the time. It's just totally novel.

296
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But the reality is you've got some of this architecture of the existing market that's

297
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playing into it as well, right? So you've got all of the passive index funds that are funneling all

298
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this capital into in the door so if you have this passive bid you know why don't you why don't you

299
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capitalize on it and buy the asset that's going up at 50 kager in a gold rush and i think that's

300
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an under underappreciated part of the whole story and i think from day one you've been right on that

301
00:28:11,002 --> 00:28:18,362
yeah yeah i i think um this is reminding me of the the poll sailor did at the conference where

302
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he asked people who owns equity almost everyone raises their hand right dano um and i i think

303
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that's kind of a sign of the times uh you know the status quo or culturally we've been taught

304
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that you take your money and you put it into equities not only taught but it's ingrained in

305
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the system 401ks your roth ira etc and i think this is what this is just a symptom of broken

306
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money. When you have broken money, you monetize things or you monetize assets, which cannot be

307
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printed. Equity is real estate, et cetera. And I think equities right now, at least to me, it's

308
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the easiest one to show how overvalued they are because there are fundamentals. There are PE

309
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ratios. Something like real estate, it's a little bit more questionable, right? It's not as

310
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there's no, there's not necessarily, it's a little bit more subjective, I guess, is what I'm trying

311
00:29:25,222 --> 00:29:32,322
to say. Yeah, totally. Totally. And I don't think any of that architecture is going to change

312
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anytime soon, right? Like all of this is innate. And this is something we've talked about a lot is

313
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that, you know, money, this concept of money and storing your money in equities is just, it's

314
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innate. It's what you do. You start a job. They're like, let's sign you up for a 401k. You're like,

315
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great you don't even think about it it's just automated and like these people are you know

316
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zombies moving through the world and there's a lot of society that's kind of structured and

317
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built like that it's going to be hard for those people to change like they won't change unless

318
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there's pain and i think we're starting to see a little bit more pain in in the market just in

319
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general thinking about all the jobs report revisions and things like that you could see it kind of

320
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everywhere. So yeah, it's an interesting concept. But let's go ahead, Adrian.

321
00:30:18,502 --> 00:30:24,102
So what are we saying the core issue is between that comparison then? Just that I'm sure. What

322
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is the core issue between how the market is valuing or should be valuing strategy versus how it's

323
00:30:29,942 --> 00:30:35,382
Yeah, I've been so I think when Bitcoin goes up in value, you can't place an equity multiple

324
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specifically on that gain in price.

325
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If you have a company and they don't accrete Bitcoin per share, it's a holding company,

326
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would you expect a multiple to be placed over the value of the Bitcoin?

327
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Well, you're describing like an ETF, so no.

328
00:30:55,582 --> 00:31:09,604
But so all right so totally flip the script right Operating company Now that collateral That power Right Right Like that power to do anything to do anything Future opportunity

329
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Yeah.

330
00:31:09,884 --> 00:31:13,564
So it's a huge expectation of the amount of collateral they will have in the future, right?

331
00:31:13,564 --> 00:31:16,444
Because an equity is a call option by future assets of a corporation.

332
00:31:17,524 --> 00:31:18,084
So, yeah.

333
00:31:18,084 --> 00:31:18,484
Yeah.

334
00:31:18,484 --> 00:31:23,764
I mean, I would just say the market may be discounting the future value of their Bitcoin holdings.

335
00:31:24,084 --> 00:31:28,484
And that's why I would say, like, I think, yeah, MSDR price is low.

336
00:31:29,044 --> 00:31:34,044
I don't know if the market is discounting the future value.

337
00:31:34,044 --> 00:31:37,544
That could be part of it, but I think the market is still largely discounting Bitcoin.

338
00:31:37,544 --> 00:31:41,284
I don't think that Bitcoin's hit the escape velocity that it needs to hit in terms of

339
00:31:41,284 --> 00:31:44,364
market perception for this kind of a strategy and this kind of a structure.

340
00:31:44,364 --> 00:31:49,364
Yeah, I do want to say on that, so let's say you believe Bitcoin will go up 30K into

341
00:31:49,364 --> 00:31:50,784
the future.

342
00:31:50,784 --> 00:31:56,544
The proper market response to that expectation would be Bitcoin price rising today.

343
00:31:56,544 --> 00:32:00,344
So I think a lot of times we think like, oh, that means if we believe Bitcoin is going

344
00:32:00,344 --> 00:32:04,364
to be going up 30 KG for 10 years, then strategy should have a higher multiple over the Bitcoin

345
00:32:04,364 --> 00:32:07,084
as a future expectation of the Bitcoin going up.

346
00:32:07,084 --> 00:32:11,084
But in my mind, if you believe Bitcoin will perform that way, then the Bitcoin price is

347
00:32:11,084 --> 00:32:16,464
too cheap now because official market hypothesis says Bitcoin should now perform like S&P

348
00:32:16,464 --> 00:32:19,464
kind of idea.

349
00:32:19,464 --> 00:32:23,724
How do you account for the passive flows that, you know, as they get bigger?

350
00:32:23,724 --> 00:32:24,724
That's a good point.

351
00:32:24,724 --> 00:32:27,064
I'm not saying no premium by any means.

352
00:32:27,564 --> 00:32:36,724
I'm just saying I don't think you can use a traditional PDE on a non-cyclical business as an accurate comparison to the PDE on MSDR.

353
00:32:36,884 --> 00:32:38,664
I'm just saying MNavi is a good valuation metric.

354
00:32:40,184 --> 00:32:50,924
I agree with you, but where I am struggling in just thinking through this myself is PEG ratios, price earnings to growth ratios.

355
00:32:50,924 --> 00:33:00,064
and if you think just you put like a base metric on strategies compound bitcoin yield moving into

356
00:33:00,064 --> 00:33:06,684
the future like what do you think the what do you think the next decade kager on mstr's bitcoin

357
00:33:06,684 --> 00:33:14,524
let's just call it 10 for ease of argument cool i use seven and a half and in the year 2030

358
00:33:14,524 --> 00:33:19,224
if they had seven and a half compound annual growth rate bitcoin yield

359
00:33:19,224 --> 00:33:26,984
they're going to yield 68 000 bitcoin in 2030 at a bitcoin price of 788 000 it's incredible

360
00:33:26,984 --> 00:33:35,244
yeah that's that's 54 billion of net of yielded yielded net income yeah no that's insane like

361
00:33:35,244 --> 00:33:41,204
that's that's not even that's not even factoring in the existing uh balance sheet completely but i

362
00:33:41,204 --> 00:33:45,584
think there's a difference in saying pdes on traditional equities are too high versus pde

363
00:33:45,584 --> 00:33:50,704
on mstr is too low and i'm in the camp if you're a coin believer that pd's on traditional highways

364
00:33:50,704 --> 00:33:55,664
are too high they're probably they're probably both they both both probably need to move

365
00:33:56,944 --> 00:34:01,664
uh so the the here here's why i differ from everyone in the way i think of it

366
00:34:02,144 --> 00:34:08,304
i all multiples in my view just based on what i've learned from mark and so what i've what i've been

367
00:34:08,304 --> 00:34:12,864
able to lean for markets all multiples are forward-looking right i think we can agree on that

368
00:34:13,744 --> 00:34:19,664
and if multiples are forward-looking that means that sentiment and expectations are driving those

369
00:34:19,664 --> 00:34:24,384
forward multiples because there's no fundamental valuation or there's no fundamental reason to

370
00:34:24,384 --> 00:34:29,744
value something above a ratio or multiple of one past its value you're talking about forward-looking

371
00:34:29,744 --> 00:34:34,864
expectations so i think what we need to talk about is is the market appropriately valuing

372
00:34:34,864 --> 00:34:41,904
what strategy can do with their bitcoin holdings in the future no yeah i i i do not think so because

373
00:34:41,904 --> 00:34:48,384
like what's the what's the value of a company that has 11x more value than anybody else right

374
00:34:48,384 --> 00:34:55,424
like the next closest publicly traded company is uh has 11 times less bitcoin than msdr has let's

375
00:34:55,424 --> 00:35:05,984
let's just say for like concept wise um nvidia comes out and converts 100 of their net income

376
00:35:05,984 --> 00:35:11,984
from the next quarter into Bitcoin. They're still going to have 50% less Bitcoin than MSTR would.

377
00:35:11,984 --> 00:35:14,544
And the price is-

378
00:35:14,544 --> 00:35:20,544
I think we're confounding two things here. The value of Bitcoin, I think we all agree

379
00:35:20,544 --> 00:35:25,024
on this call that Bitcoin is one of the best assets ever, right? I think we would all agree on that.

380
00:35:25,584 --> 00:35:32,384
But I think we are maybe making the wrong assumption that the market is going to appropriately value

381
00:35:32,384 --> 00:35:39,344
that i i think the market needs to accept bitcoin needs to accept bitcoin acceptance and bitcoin

382
00:35:39,344 --> 00:35:45,984
adoption and needs to hit a certain trajectory on that curve and i think then everything starts to

383
00:35:45,984 --> 00:35:51,664
fall into place right now what we're saying is we we assume we all agree that bitcoin is the best

384
00:35:51,664 --> 00:35:54,624
asset therefore strategy has the most of it therefore strategy should have an appropriate

385
00:35:54,624 --> 00:36:00,544
valuation i don't think that's the right framework my view is it's about what they can do with it

386
00:36:00,544 --> 00:36:05,344
just having on the balance sheet doesn't really matter i think the future multiples are going to

387
00:36:05,344 --> 00:36:09,984
come from what they do with it yeah and how they're what do you prefer i'd argue

388
00:36:11,744 --> 00:36:15,984
dealer has said specifically that the entire business model is predicated on the preferred

389
00:36:15,984 --> 00:36:20,944
stocks right now so we propose yeah and that's what that's what they're doing that like they've

390
00:36:20,944 --> 00:36:24,864
just raised six billion dollars and like i'm in the team i'm in the camp of like waking me up when

391
00:36:24,864 --> 00:36:28,224
they're doing something else but if the c the chairman of the board and ceo said we're just

392
00:36:28,224 --> 00:36:30,624
doing preferred stocks i think they're just doing preferred stocks

393
00:36:32,864 --> 00:36:36,064
shall we get into the bad bond of the week because i think this might be a good time

394
00:36:37,344 --> 00:36:41,024
i mean they're gonna they're gonna have to change that but yeah okay i want to talk about the bad

395
00:36:41,024 --> 00:36:44,864
bond of the week and i'm gonna try to do one of these every week we'll see how it goes and maybe

396
00:36:44,864 --> 00:36:50,704
i'll get a little sound bar and it'll be like bad bond of the week like bad bond um okay let's look

397
00:36:50,704 --> 00:36:51,544
Let's look at this.

398
00:36:51,544 --> 00:36:56,544
This is the Hertz 12 and five eights, 715.29.

399
00:36:57,744 --> 00:37:00,684
So this Hertz bond,

400
00:37:00,684 --> 00:37:03,264
so Hertz is the rental car agency company.

401
00:37:03,264 --> 00:37:08,264
They sold this 2029 bond last year in 2024.

402
00:37:08,524 --> 00:37:11,924
So it was a five year bond.

403
00:37:11,924 --> 00:37:15,064
They raised $1.25 billion.

404
00:37:15,064 --> 00:37:17,744
This is currently rated by Moody's at B and B plus.

405
00:37:17,744 --> 00:37:19,424
Moody's is B, S and P is B,

406
00:37:19,424 --> 00:37:22,044
Fitch and composite is B plus.

407
00:37:22,044 --> 00:37:26,044
The current yield on this instrument is around 10%.

408
00:37:26,044 --> 00:37:27,584
Okay, 10% yield.

409
00:37:28,624 --> 00:37:32,964
The leverage ratio of the company is literally over 100%.

410
00:37:32,964 --> 00:37:34,904
So the total liabilities on their balance sheet

411
00:37:34,904 --> 00:37:36,544
is 23.5 billion.

412
00:37:36,544 --> 00:37:39,704
The total assets held on the balance sheet is 23 billion.

413
00:37:39,704 --> 00:37:44,704
The net income over the last seven quarters has been negative.

414
00:37:45,784 --> 00:37:49,404
They've lost over $2 billion over the last seven quarters.

415
00:37:49,404 --> 00:37:57,724
And the liquidity in the very middle here is the two, this is the two bids on this instrument in

416
00:37:57,724 --> 00:38:01,864
the market. So basically there's like zero, there's just zero liquidity on this instrument. There are

417
00:38:01,864 --> 00:38:08,304
no trades happening on this instrument. So this is one and a quarter billion of debt that's

418
00:38:08,304 --> 00:38:15,584
outstanding with a five-year duration that's trading at a 10% yield. Okay. Let's look at,

419
00:38:15,584 --> 00:38:24,224
let's look at stride in the credit stack okay you've got stride which is currently paying

420
00:38:25,024 --> 00:38:31,904
12.25 percent yield so it's paying 225 basis points higher than the hertz five-year bond

421
00:38:33,184 --> 00:38:37,344
on a credit basis you're 5x over collateralized like the price of bitcoin is going to fall

422
00:38:38,304 --> 00:38:44,144
what is that 80 80 percent and stay below it before the notional goes to zero you've got a

423
00:38:44,144 --> 00:38:50,304
duration of eight years so i mean it's a little bit longer but strategies capital stack here

424
00:38:50,304 --> 00:38:56,704
they've got ability to pay this dividend for like a hundred years from just the if the capital didn't

425
00:38:56,704 --> 00:39:01,664
move at all and this btc risk column which i think is interesting maybe we'll dive into this a little

426
00:39:01,664 --> 00:39:08,384
bit more later but this is the cumulative probability based on a bitcoin arr assumption

427
00:39:08,384 --> 00:39:13,024
of 30% and a volatility assumption of 40%. This is the cumulative probability

428
00:39:13,024 --> 00:39:21,504
that at the end of the duration, 8.4 years, the value of the collateral held on balance sheet

429
00:39:21,504 --> 00:39:27,604
is less than the total summed notional value of preferred equity on balance sheet.

430
00:39:29,224 --> 00:39:38,364
So 0.56%. So incredibly low risk. It's paying 225 basis points above the Hertz bond. And

431
00:39:38,364 --> 00:39:48,404
It's just like so glaringly obvious that these instruments are significantly better than some of the other stuff in the market.

432
00:39:48,404 --> 00:39:54,684
And the other thing I'll point out is Stride today had trading volume of $18 million.

433
00:39:55,344 --> 00:39:57,484
So it's somewhat liquid.

434
00:39:58,384 --> 00:40:01,064
And I think this can grow tremendously.

435
00:40:02,304 --> 00:40:05,904
The scale, the size and scale of this stuff is just enormous.

436
00:40:05,904 --> 00:40:11,384
you've got a 300 trillion dollar market like this is one bond i think that's the other thing oh i

437
00:40:11,384 --> 00:40:16,744
don't have my other computer up but you could go you could go look at the high yield etfs and go

438
00:40:16,744 --> 00:40:22,744
pull all of the the list of all the securities and the high yield etfs and all of the 144 bonds

439
00:40:22,744 --> 00:40:31,024
i had to scroll like 20 of them before i found a company that i even recognized like there's stuff

440
00:40:31,024 --> 00:40:37,984
that that's you know 10 to 12 you know 8 to 14 percent yield that you've never heard of and the

441
00:40:37,984 --> 00:40:42,644
balance sheets are crap the business model is crap negative net income and there's just a ton of risk

442
00:40:42,644 --> 00:40:48,604
associated with it so it's uh it's pretty crazy when you when you really start to pull the string

443
00:40:48,604 --> 00:40:54,064
on some of this stuff like i get why they're focused on the prefs this opportunity is enormous

444
00:40:54,064 --> 00:40:56,424
and that entire market is mispriced.

445
00:40:57,704 --> 00:40:59,464
It's like completely off.

446
00:41:02,624 --> 00:41:04,084
Okay, that's it, bad bond of the week.

447
00:41:04,084 --> 00:41:05,644
What's next?

448
00:41:05,644 --> 00:41:06,784
You were talking about app love

449
00:41:06,784 --> 00:41:08,504
and I don't wanna go backwards too far,

450
00:41:08,504 --> 00:41:10,484
but while we were on the topic of S&P,

451
00:41:10,484 --> 00:41:12,104
sending the group chat earlier,

452
00:41:12,104 --> 00:41:14,384
just about EA games going private.

453
00:41:15,424 --> 00:41:16,264
So I know-

454
00:41:16,264 --> 00:41:17,104
Oh yeah, listen on that.

455
00:41:17,104 --> 00:41:17,944
Yeah, I haven't looked into it,

456
00:41:17,944 --> 00:41:19,964
but as I understand, they're not dropped right away.

457
00:41:19,964 --> 00:41:22,304
It's when they rebalance.

458
00:41:22,304 --> 00:41:42,384
But when that happens, that would open up another spot. It's definitely more bullish because it's not just simply on the inclusion factors. There's an empty seat plus the normal rotation. And I mean, they're in IT. So there's, there's alignment, sector alignment within the overall 500. So I think it's, it's bullish. It's interesting.

459
00:41:42,384 --> 00:41:49,364
yeah so so for those are unaware ea sports was purchased by uh i think it's like a saudi arabia

460
00:41:49,364 --> 00:41:56,024
company and they went private today so that is one less company in the s p 500 index so i think

461
00:41:56,024 --> 00:42:01,284
technically there is a spot that is open for inclusion and sometimes there are companies that

462
00:42:01,284 --> 00:42:07,044
included get included in the s p 500 and a one-off and uh i think we saw that i think it was apple

463
00:42:07,044 --> 00:42:12,804
been one of them no um no it was somebody else a couple months ago i forget who it was but

464
00:42:12,804 --> 00:42:20,804
it was another kind of bigger name so yeah that's exciting and and i know both dan's you guys are

465
00:42:20,804 --> 00:42:24,644
interested in miners right now too can we talk through that thesis like what what's going on

466
00:42:24,644 --> 00:42:29,044
there on the mining front yeah i think we're looking at it more from like a macroeconomic

467
00:42:29,044 --> 00:42:33,684
kind of leverage upside perspective so we're by no means experts in the miners but we've been

468
00:42:33,684 --> 00:42:37,184
We've been looking at kind of the American miners that are still mining Bitcoin as opposed

469
00:42:37,184 --> 00:42:43,224
to the fully transferred to the HPC side of the business and the data center build out.

470
00:42:43,224 --> 00:42:48,404
So we're looking at Mara and CleanSpark and we hold small positions and call options on

471
00:42:48,404 --> 00:42:49,404
those two.

472
00:42:49,404 --> 00:42:54,684
I kind of like the exponential increase in Bitcoin profitability based on higher and

473
00:42:54,684 --> 00:42:58,384
higher Bitcoin prices, just because it's kind of that asymmetric upside if Bitcoin does

474
00:42:58,384 --> 00:43:00,824
go to crazy prices like we've been talking about.

475
00:43:00,824 --> 00:43:04,684
And then I also like the energy contracts, like thinking through the idea of like, okay,

476
00:43:04,684 --> 00:43:11,164
what are these energy contracts worth in six months time, 10 months time, when the demand

477
00:43:11,164 --> 00:43:17,424
for energy has just continued to increase based on the bottleneck and the data center

478
00:43:17,424 --> 00:43:20,324
build out and just energy shortage across the country.

479
00:43:20,324 --> 00:43:25,144
And people will be bidding up the corporations that have that cheap locked in contracts on

480
00:43:25,144 --> 00:43:26,144
the energy front.

481
00:43:26,144 --> 00:43:27,824
So that's kind of the way we're thinking of it.

482
00:43:27,824 --> 00:43:41,804
Yeah, plus that coincides with, you know, just the push for more energy expansion in America, American Bitcoin bringing more and more hash rate onshore and just being the absolute dominant leader in that.

483
00:43:41,804 --> 00:43:52,124
So, I mean, there's even Mara's, again, not necessarily an endorsement, but they've had several campaigns.

484
00:43:52,664 --> 00:43:59,084
I think one was BlockSpace as a strategic resource that they were campaigning for and Mara for America.

485
00:43:59,484 --> 00:44:02,964
So they're really trying to align with the Trump admin, the new energy bills.

486
00:44:04,724 --> 00:44:07,484
I mean, U.S. miners control blocks of Bitcoin.

487
00:44:07,484 --> 00:44:14,364
blocks of Bitcoin are like the monetary equivalent to energy credits. So I think that fits both the

488
00:44:14,364 --> 00:44:22,044
narrative of the energy sector, AI expansion, and just this huge boom we're in there. So again,

489
00:44:22,044 --> 00:44:27,144
we're not holding a long-term spot. We're just kind of playing the cycle. Bitcoin miners are

490
00:44:27,144 --> 00:44:31,444
rallying right now. They have rallied and we think they'll continue to lead and do so

491
00:44:31,444 --> 00:44:35,404
just in the Bitcoin beta sector.

492
00:44:37,604 --> 00:44:41,084
Yeah, and because there's a huge demand for energy just across the board,

493
00:44:41,084 --> 00:44:44,084
because all of these AI centers are popping up left and right.

494
00:44:44,224 --> 00:44:48,064
Elon Musk is building a new AI data center,

495
00:44:48,064 --> 00:44:51,564
and it just requires absolutely tremendous amount of energy.

496
00:44:52,304 --> 00:44:55,144
So the thought being that there's a huge demand

497
00:44:55,144 --> 00:44:59,684
and a limited amount of supply and infrastructure that can withhold it.

498
00:44:59,764 --> 00:45:01,424
I mean, that's the general theme, right?

499
00:45:01,444 --> 00:45:04,824
yeah totally exactly yeah

500
00:45:04,824 --> 00:45:12,624
so i mean adrian how do you how do you feel about this so you've you're following ai i know you've

501
00:45:12,624 --> 00:45:17,504
got like nine computers under your desk uh pulling through this like how how do you view this how do

502
00:45:17,504 --> 00:45:25,524
you view this energy space energy relative to ai um is that is that on your radar like how are you

503
00:45:25,524 --> 00:45:30,864
how are you thinking through this well yeah so that's why i'm ben myself and dr rest in peace

504
00:45:30,864 --> 00:45:33,664
were talking about miners last year.

505
00:45:34,564 --> 00:45:37,304
We thought that like Iron, Cypher, Terawolf,

506
00:45:37,364 --> 00:45:40,224
a few others were really more diversified energy plays

507
00:45:40,224 --> 00:45:42,284
and that their future would be with compute

508
00:45:42,284 --> 00:45:45,904
and that our bet was that they would make a pivot

509
00:45:45,904 --> 00:45:49,104
over to be more HPC AI dedicated plays

510
00:45:49,104 --> 00:45:50,564
specifically because of the energy

511
00:45:50,564 --> 00:45:52,024
and specifically because of the GPUs

512
00:45:52,024 --> 00:45:53,104
and how much compute they can house.

513
00:45:53,604 --> 00:45:54,704
And that's largely playing out.

514
00:45:54,824 --> 00:45:55,804
We've seen Cypher run.

515
00:45:55,884 --> 00:45:57,184
We've seen Iron really run.

516
00:45:58,324 --> 00:46:00,204
Terawolf has had some good returns as well.

517
00:46:00,204 --> 00:46:02,844
I had positions in Iron and Cypher since last year.

518
00:46:03,744 --> 00:46:05,044
They've performed very well.

519
00:46:05,044 --> 00:46:10,944
It was a long hold, but the Dan said the thesis right.

520
00:46:10,944 --> 00:46:13,384
I think Ben, myself, DR had a thesis right.

521
00:46:13,384 --> 00:46:15,384
A few others had a thesis right.

522
00:46:15,384 --> 00:46:20,424
A lot of the miners, their ability to become profitable

523
00:46:20,424 --> 00:46:23,924
is going to be bore out from a pivot to HVC AI in full.

524
00:46:24,224 --> 00:46:26,604
Even CleanSpark now is talking about HVC and AI

525
00:46:26,604 --> 00:46:29,944
when at one point they were a dedicated pure play miner

526
00:46:29,944 --> 00:46:43,926
that didn want to dabble in HPC and AI whatsoever So it good to see that the mining pivot into energy has happened and it playing out I think that only gonna speed up

527
00:46:43,926 --> 00:46:45,826
if I had to take a wild guess.

528
00:46:45,826 --> 00:46:48,266
I know Ben and I talked about this a while ago

529
00:46:48,266 --> 00:46:51,186
that we could even see hyperscalers coming in

530
00:46:51,186 --> 00:46:53,166
and buying out some of these miners

531
00:46:53,166 --> 00:46:54,546
specifically because they have the ability

532
00:46:54,546 --> 00:46:55,846
to house the compute.

533
00:46:55,846 --> 00:46:57,526
So the future is bright for that.

534
00:46:57,526 --> 00:46:59,626
I think that the race for energy

535
00:46:59,626 --> 00:47:03,206
and the race to be able to house these massive data centers

536
00:47:03,206 --> 00:47:04,186
is gonna be huge.

537
00:47:04,186 --> 00:47:07,166
Tier three data centers are a very, very niche product.

538
00:47:07,166 --> 00:47:08,626
It's not just a matter of building it out.

539
00:47:08,626 --> 00:47:12,106
You have to have everything systematically planned out.

540
00:47:12,106 --> 00:47:15,446
So it's not something you can just decide to build tomorrow.

541
00:47:15,446 --> 00:47:18,046
And a lot of these miners have the headstart right now,

542
00:47:18,046 --> 00:47:19,706
especially Cypher and Iron.

543
00:47:19,706 --> 00:47:24,706
So I think that it's gonna be very, very profitable.

544
00:47:24,706 --> 00:47:31,026
very, very profitable. I honestly think that, ironically enough, Bitcoin mining is going to

545
00:47:31,026 --> 00:47:36,766
have a very large role of play in AI. And I don't think the AI play, quote unquote,

546
00:47:37,266 --> 00:47:41,886
is slowing down anytime soon. I do think that we're probably going to see some consolidation.

547
00:47:42,286 --> 00:47:48,226
I think we're going to see a lot of projects that are just pure hopium kind of blow up. But the need

548
00:47:48,226 --> 00:47:52,106
for the data centers, the need for the compute and the need for housing the different models that

549
00:47:52,106 --> 00:47:58,826
coming to scale is not going to debate anytime soon i'm going to ask the dumb question hpc

550
00:48:00,026 --> 00:48:07,226
high performance computing that's as simple as that just computers okay all right they're

551
00:48:07,226 --> 00:48:12,986
running around all over the place yeah yeah the ability to be able to um have high performance

552
00:48:12,986 --> 00:48:18,826
data centers with the energy needs requirements and the compute needs at scale that's high

553
00:48:18,826 --> 00:48:25,466
performance computing in a very very simple nutshell got it so the one problem i've got with

554
00:48:25,466 --> 00:48:33,626
the whole mining side of things is really just the opex like the the capital expenditure because

555
00:48:33,626 --> 00:48:42,746
you've got the mining equipment is continuing to improve and you've got to go replace that equipment

556
00:48:42,746 --> 00:48:51,006
over time and generally at bad times in the market you want to go replace that equipment so

557
00:48:51,006 --> 00:48:56,666
it's just a it's a tricky compared to like uh these treasury companies that are leveraging

558
00:48:56,666 --> 00:49:05,446
their balance sheet with teams of five people uh and not the continuous overhead of having to

559
00:49:05,446 --> 00:49:13,226
you know, rotate all of your, uh, mining equipment and infrastructure and having to deal with that.

560
00:49:13,286 --> 00:49:19,026
So that's, um, yeah, it's, uh, yeah. And that's, and so that, that's why, and that was a thesis

561
00:49:19,026 --> 00:49:26,726
that Ben and I had last year, the miners, miners know it is a CapEx intensive business, right?

562
00:49:26,726 --> 00:49:32,826
Everything you just called out is well known that the fact of the matter is, is that the

563
00:49:32,826 --> 00:49:38,586
miners that weren't really going to be miners the miners that were really pivoting to hbc and ai

564
00:49:38,586 --> 00:49:43,046
they just can come right out and say it that's what we were trying to identify and i think that

565
00:49:43,046 --> 00:49:47,726
um now with with like with mara and some of the other miners are being more open with it from

566
00:49:47,726 --> 00:49:53,186
from the get-go because the narrative the trend is now hbc that the trend is now ai the trend is

567
00:49:53,186 --> 00:49:59,846
compute so it makes sense to do so but like in february to april of last year miners that were

568
00:49:59,846 --> 00:50:05,126
talking about being pivoting into hbc and ai were kind of being disparaged in the mining community

569
00:50:05,126 --> 00:50:09,446
because they weren't pure play miners for every reason you just called out yeah pure

570
00:50:09,446 --> 00:50:14,806
pure play bitcoin miners precisely yeah they they for everything you just called out you buy the new

571
00:50:14,806 --> 00:50:20,646
equipment by the next cycle it's already obsolete you you have you entirely are reliant on bitcoin's

572
00:50:20,646 --> 00:50:26,246
price running and when bitcoin's price didn't run as much as people thought it would last year and

573
00:50:26,246 --> 00:50:30,726
it's having more of a steady ascent that spooked a lot of the miners so everything from and this is

574
00:50:30,726 --> 00:50:36,486
just my opinion but like iron cypher iron was always being more aggressive with their energy

575
00:50:36,486 --> 00:50:41,926
play cypher was being more coy in my opinion you have bit digital that got out of it almost entirely

576
00:50:41,926 --> 00:50:46,006
you have marathon that's being more diversified in hbc and ai now you have american bitcoin you

577
00:50:46,006 --> 00:50:50,486
have all these other bitcoin companies coming into it for those very reasons it is capex intensive

578
00:50:50,486 --> 00:50:56,406
So I do think that, you know, the Bitcoin mining industry is not going anywhere, but I do think

579
00:50:56,406 --> 00:51:00,566
it's going to become more diversified and it may even become far more decentralized with a lot more

580
00:51:00,566 --> 00:51:08,566
smaller players in the space. So the trend right now is compute and the miners that are able to

581
00:51:08,566 --> 00:51:12,566
capitalize on that are seeing those returns, especially with iron and cipher.

582
00:51:13,206 --> 00:51:18,166
Okay. So what's the risk of these companies that are not, just trying to wrap my head around this.

583
00:51:18,166 --> 00:51:22,566
what's the risk of these companies that are not bitcoin miners that are shifting towards this ai

584
00:51:22,566 --> 00:51:31,126
compute um power play like corralling the power what's the what's the downside risk

585
00:51:31,686 --> 00:51:36,646
so when you say not bitcoin miners are you talking about bitcoin miners that are pivoting or

586
00:51:38,646 --> 00:51:45,126
yeah that were bitcoin miners and now are like ai energy plays what's the what's the risk is it

587
00:51:45,126 --> 00:51:50,806
like energy innovation is the risk where you've got some increased computing power

588
00:51:51,766 --> 00:51:58,566
that can be done with less energy or is it like global energy compute you know is it is it cross

589
00:51:58,566 --> 00:52:07,606
border energy costs you know i don't think it's a matter of demand the i i did a breakdown this

590
00:52:07,606 --> 00:52:13,126
last year the the rise and then the need for data centers was already increasing long before this ai

591
00:52:13,126 --> 00:52:19,606
trend habit so the ai trend just kind of exploded the trend so i i don't think that we have any

592
00:52:19,606 --> 00:52:24,806
any real risk of there being decreased demand for data centers and high capacity tier three data

593
00:52:24,806 --> 00:52:31,046
centers now to your point about innovation the only real energy innovation is going to be something

594
00:52:31,046 --> 00:52:38,646
like you know broad scale nuclear adoption that's going to create a bit of a i don't need time yeah

595
00:52:38,646 --> 00:52:45,766
it takes so much time and all those other things yeah right and then renewables they're there so i

596
00:52:45,766 --> 00:52:52,166
think uh what was it uh was it fermi for i think fermi a company just ipo today they are diversified

597
00:52:52,166 --> 00:53:01,046
energy play they have um nuclear wind yeah uh solar um i think the ticker is f f r m i i think rick

598
00:53:01,046 --> 00:53:05,526
perry actually is actually behind that one but i mentioned it because that's another that's another

599
00:53:05,526 --> 00:53:11,926
energy play right and they're going specifically into ai and high power compute so the energy

600
00:53:11,926 --> 00:53:15,366
innovation i don't think that's that's a risk right now because they still have to scale it

601
00:53:15,366 --> 00:53:20,006
so even if we have some some massive innovation tomorrow this is still needs to be scaled so

602
00:53:20,006 --> 00:53:28,566
that's not a risk the biggest risk could be they are not attractive to hyperscalers in in sufficient

603
00:53:28,566 --> 00:53:35,886
scale. A hyperscaler is going to want massive amounts of power for compute. If they are not

604
00:53:35,886 --> 00:53:40,146
attractive to one of these hyperscalers, then they have to go do kind of what BitDigital is

605
00:53:40,146 --> 00:53:49,226
doing and get several deals. And if they can't justify the number of deals to use up the level

606
00:53:49,226 --> 00:53:54,026
of compute that they can have, they're now kind of stuck with Bitcoin needing to rip and them not

607
00:53:54,026 --> 00:53:57,706
having the sufficient demand on the HPCAI side because they can't garner the right deal.

608
00:53:58,466 --> 00:54:01,706
So the way you can offset that is by going cloud.

609
00:54:02,306 --> 00:54:04,986
So a lot of them are saying that we're not looking for one deal.

610
00:54:05,086 --> 00:54:09,026
We'll just be a cloud host of HPC and high-powered compute for everyone.

611
00:54:09,586 --> 00:54:11,906
And then that's a way that they can offset that risk.

612
00:54:12,286 --> 00:54:14,686
But that's the only real risk I can see,

613
00:54:14,686 --> 00:54:18,846
that they don't get the deals in time to justify the CapEx that they put out

614
00:54:18,846 --> 00:54:20,726
to be able to scale the compute.

615
00:54:20,726 --> 00:54:31,186
okay well this is this is uh that's interesting um and we can go ahead and pull it way back up i

616
00:54:31,186 --> 00:54:38,106
mean we were talking mara um we'll put it in more like strategy terms um but i mean their their

617
00:54:38,106 --> 00:54:45,226
bitcoin stack the 50k bitcoin on the balance sheet using simple math every 10 000 dollar move

618
00:54:45,226 --> 00:54:50,366
in bitcoin adds 500 million in value which is more than most of their peers market caps

619
00:54:50,366 --> 00:54:57,846
so we're just looking at the current cycle of miners leading with all of the energy buzz around

620
00:54:57,846 --> 00:55:03,346
them and then bitcoin's price lagging and sideways chopping and then what happens when bitcoin starts

621
00:55:03,346 --> 00:55:10,086
to rip here in q4 and we're just looking for the asymmetric upside there again not long-term plays

622
00:55:10,086 --> 00:55:15,486
like it's not a core holding but playing the options market on it into this rally we think is

623
00:55:15,486 --> 00:55:19,386
I'm getting not financial advice, but it is the edge there.

624
00:55:19,386 --> 00:55:20,386
Yeah.

625
00:55:20,386 --> 00:55:25,686
And also their cost of mining is substantially lower than their peers.

626
00:55:25,686 --> 00:55:32,086
I think they're around 33K per Bitcoin versus, you know, 40 to 50K Bitcoin for some of the

627
00:55:32,086 --> 00:55:33,086
others as well.

628
00:55:33,086 --> 00:55:40,086
So how would you weigh IBIT calls relative to minor calls?

629
00:55:40,086 --> 00:55:41,086
You want to take that?

630
00:55:41,086 --> 00:55:42,086
Yeah.

631
00:55:42,086 --> 00:55:43,086
Yeah.

632
00:55:43,086 --> 00:55:44,086
I'll take that.

633
00:55:44,086 --> 00:55:45,086
I think calls.

634
00:55:45,086 --> 00:55:51,646
we got to say too we saw pigeons in the in the chat shout out his research is awesome we've been

635
00:55:51,646 --> 00:55:56,926
following we've been studying up on poker uh national equilibrium and all of that as well

636
00:55:56,926 --> 00:56:02,606
um the push fold strategy so shout out we did a research piece on mara and uh it's heavily

637
00:56:02,606 --> 00:56:08,846
influenced by pigeon so there you go keep it up man but in terms of ibic calls versus minor calls

638
00:56:08,846 --> 00:56:13,566
i think the miners have the exponential like convexity at higher higher bitcoin prices

639
00:56:13,566 --> 00:56:19,006
because their profitability increases exponentially with higher and higher Bitcoin prices.

640
00:56:19,406 --> 00:56:25,086
So if you get Bitcoin at $250, I think you could get some of these miners at just heinous prices,

641
00:56:25,086 --> 00:56:27,726
temporarily, not long term, but temporarily.

642
00:56:27,726 --> 00:56:28,286
And so-

643
00:56:28,286 --> 00:56:31,246
Yeah. Because they have the negative convexity on the way down.

644
00:56:31,246 --> 00:56:35,326
So you get burned on the way down, but you get that upside. So really small, naked long

645
00:56:36,606 --> 00:56:42,606
miner positions. And then the Bitcoin, the IBIT calls, we have all call spreads. So you're making

646
00:56:42,606 --> 00:56:48,686
like maximum payoff for us we have it set up at like 150k ish bitcoin like really high returns

647
00:56:48,686 --> 00:56:53,006
right in that kind of middle band of price then higher higher those miners are world

648
00:56:53,006 --> 00:56:58,606
capture the upside so how we do yeah locked in you're like you're structuring and designing a

649
00:56:58,606 --> 00:57:04,766
portfolio now it gets a little bit more complicated than just longing uh one i think it's interesting

650
00:57:04,766 --> 00:57:09,166
because you can create like for anyone in the market even if you just had a portfolio of bitcoin

651
00:57:09,166 --> 00:57:15,246
in cash or mstr and bitcoin right the percentage allocations to any of those asset classes created

652
00:57:15,246 --> 00:57:20,766
a completely different risk return profile for you oh and then forget the press talks right

653
00:57:20,766 --> 00:57:25,886
you've got stretch you got strength you got strike how do you create the uh it's the frontier

654
00:57:25,886 --> 00:57:31,646
so super interesting yeah and then looking well yeah and now i was gonna say looking at some of

655
00:57:31,646 --> 00:57:37,966
the treasuries too like the potential as many have approached uh one m nav some below some you know

656
00:57:37,966 --> 00:57:45,166
just over um we're looking at the potential for like the three to five x m nav multiple within that

657
00:57:45,726 --> 00:57:50,206
that cycle so we're all believers in a potential super cycle here we think bitcoin's gonna rip

658
00:57:50,206 --> 00:57:57,326
we're looking at q4 we know how fast it moves in those 10 days um in that framing within the 50 days

659
00:57:57,326 --> 00:58:03,886
we've seen it before um so yeah when you apply that just to the landscape of treasuries and how

660
00:58:03,886 --> 00:58:08,686
complex their capital raise structure is and the rate of acquisition of bitcoin and timing the

661
00:58:08,686 --> 00:58:13,086
market versus timing all the deals and then the bitcoin that's just on the company's balance

662
00:58:13,086 --> 00:58:20,926
sheets now for miners like mara and then um i mean it's just all mapped out uh so so we feel uh

663
00:58:20,926 --> 00:58:27,326
you can get that three to five x um potentially quicker within this cycle of q4 in some of the

664
00:58:27,326 --> 00:58:33,806
miners and then we'd rotate back out and over the treasury companies you think you think miners over

665
00:58:33,806 --> 00:58:39,166
the treasury companies because in the very short term why uh cycle here just because of their

666
00:58:39,166 --> 00:58:46,686
existing bitcoin their uh consistent acquisition of uh bitcoin we've got i mean we've got all their

667
00:58:46,686 --> 00:58:51,406
metrics mapped out as well so you can clearly see that where introduction i mean if you take meta

668
00:58:51,406 --> 00:58:57,646
planet prefs when are they happening lock appear like unlocks pipe deals everything across the

669
00:58:57,646 --> 00:59:03,646
board there's so many other variables that you can't equate for that might miss time

670
00:59:03,646 --> 00:59:09,326
the rally in bitcoin timing correct timing timing might be weird exactly but that's not to say we

671
00:59:09,326 --> 00:59:15,406
don't like i think long term i'd rather personally long term i'd take uh treasury 100 yeah if we're

672
00:59:15,406 --> 00:59:22,286
talking spot like a 10-year hold the long bags absolutely treasuries um it's it's like the value

673
00:59:22,286 --> 00:59:27,246
it is the it is the value play but it's also the growth play it's like the growth and value play

674
00:59:27,246 --> 00:59:35,626
where there's like uh you think about these other alternatives like mining or and it's just it's a

675
00:59:35,626 --> 00:59:40,726
different time risk and i mean dan to your point on thinking about the efficient frontier you've got

676
00:59:40,726 --> 00:59:45,226
like you've got probably a three-dimensional model here where it's like efficient frontier but with

677
00:59:45,226 --> 00:59:50,286
a different time as your third dimension of how long you hold any of these instruments as well

678
00:59:50,286 --> 00:59:55,426
because you know it's not a typical portfolio construction mark what's modern portfolio theory

679
00:59:55,426 --> 01:00:00,466
you've got like a timing third element. So none of this is financial advice. Like anybody listening

680
01:00:00,466 --> 01:00:05,106
now that doesn't know what a call option is, I'm sure the last 20 minutes haven't made any sense.

681
01:00:05,106 --> 01:00:09,506
Sailor says just buy Bitcoin and forget timing the market. So take that advice.

682
01:00:10,706 --> 01:00:17,666
You know what? I think let's come back to that because there's risk associated with all of those

683
01:00:17,666 --> 01:00:25,186
different analyses. Not to say that they're wrong. I think all of that analysis is great analysis.

684
01:00:25,186 --> 01:00:33,046
It's like, it's, it's not, uh, I'm going to YOLO 25% of my portfolio on my deep out of the money,

685
01:00:33,126 --> 01:00:38,226
minor calls, because I just think they're going to go up. Like you have data and information

686
01:00:38,226 --> 01:00:43,226
and theory that sits behind it. So there's, there's a lot, there's a lot to that. But that

687
01:00:43,226 --> 01:00:48,646
being said, for most, for 99.9% of people, it's probably really, it's, it's really hard to beat

688
01:00:48,646 --> 01:00:54,206
Bitcoin and with the same amount of risk.

689
01:00:55,406 --> 01:00:57,386
Like, I think that's the biggest challenge.

690
01:00:57,386 --> 01:01:02,466
Like if you just buy Bitcoin, like the risk you have, if it's with a custodian, like Ibit

691
01:01:02,466 --> 01:01:04,246
or something, you have very little risk.

692
01:01:04,906 --> 01:01:09,126
You're paying, you know, 25 bps annually for them to hold it for you.

693
01:01:09,126 --> 01:01:12,486
But there's very little risk associated with it.

694
01:01:12,486 --> 01:01:16,706
But like any of these other timing element plays where you've got options contracts or

695
01:01:16,706 --> 01:01:21,986
anything like that. Like your, the risk profile increases, not linearly, it's like exponentially

696
01:01:21,986 --> 01:01:29,306
because your, your max loss is a hundred percent. Whereas if you're just holding spot Bitcoin,

697
01:01:30,466 --> 01:01:34,766
one Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. So if you, if you have a Bitcoin, you could just sit on your hands

698
01:01:34,766 --> 01:01:41,246
and wait, which I think is what, you know, all these treasury companies can do as well. Like

699
01:01:41,246 --> 01:01:47,766
depending on the time in the market, let's just say Bitcoin doubles from here. Every individual,

700
01:01:47,906 --> 01:01:52,806
one of these Bitcoin treasury companies that has Bitcoin on their balance sheet has capacity to

701
01:01:52,806 --> 01:01:58,906
take on leverage. Their capacity to take on leverage is just doubled. Maybe with different

702
01:01:58,906 --> 01:02:08,046
risk profiles, but they can go take on 30% leverage with four people in their company, no OPEX

703
01:02:08,088 --> 01:02:10,728
Right. Like the capital expenditure is very little.

704
01:02:11,728 --> 01:02:18,648
And they're able to yield additional Bitcoin, additional value by just leveraging their existing stack.

705
01:02:19,728 --> 01:02:21,648
So it's a.

706
01:02:22,888 --> 01:02:24,248
Interesting. It's just crazy times.

707
01:02:24,408 --> 01:02:28,088
I think everything is going to do really well, like just taking a zoom out.

708
01:02:28,328 --> 01:02:30,088
I think everything is going to do really well.

709
01:02:30,088 --> 01:02:37,608
Like if you hold assets here, you're probably going to be OK, but it's just, you know, conceptually, how do you think about all these other things in conjunction with each other?

710
01:02:37,608 --> 01:02:41,928
yeah and dan brought up some really good let's parrot grain on that because he said that on quite

711
01:02:41,928 --> 01:02:47,688
a few live streams here uh where he's like congrats if you're here if you're listening

712
01:02:47,688 --> 01:02:51,288
if you're in this space if you're in these equities um if you're holding bitcoin you've

713
01:02:51,288 --> 01:02:58,088
already won um so just a matter of time um and not being shooken out like all those guys who's

714
01:02:58,088 --> 01:03:02,808
had their stop losses hit at 300 bucks and uh adrian scooped them all up here

715
01:03:02,808 --> 01:03:10,088
yeah so the one word of caution with the miners right now that i'll give though is that a lot of

716
01:03:10,088 --> 01:03:13,768
them that have been moving recently been moving because of the hbc ai narrative not because of

717
01:03:13,768 --> 01:03:20,548
mining so the the move that people are expecting with bitcoin for some of these miners may actually

718
01:03:20,548 --> 01:03:26,568
not come and it may come after and now the the mine some of the miners that are still more you

719
01:03:26,568 --> 01:03:31,728
know quote-unquote traditional miners that are still in bitcoin mining i think they'll see they

720
01:03:31,728 --> 01:03:35,888
probably see disproportionate returns but it's all about capital rotation who's moving from what

721
01:03:35,888 --> 01:03:42,448
um we i definitely note saw that the second the news second within when nvidia started running

722
01:03:42,448 --> 01:03:48,048
again when palantir started running again there was a distinct move into like iron and then cypher

723
01:03:48,048 --> 01:03:51,888
and the money just kind of flowed into it and then it just started outperforming after being dead for

724
01:03:51,888 --> 01:03:57,568
like damn near a year so i think that like like mara and other miners they can do well also um

725
01:03:57,568 --> 01:04:02,688
it's just a matter of where's your position what's and what your overall thesis is i don't know if

726
01:04:02,688 --> 01:04:05,728
it's going to play out the same way that it has in last cycles they're going to perform it's just a

727
01:04:05,728 --> 01:04:13,328
matter of when yeah i think the challenge and what i just pulled up on my screen is uh this is the

728
01:04:13,328 --> 01:04:22,528
last two years um so this is going back to october 2023 and just plotting mstr relative to mara

729
01:04:22,528 --> 01:04:30,148
to look at performance and like mara is up 118 since this time horizon i just i just picked this

730
01:04:30,148 --> 01:04:36,708
time horizon i just went two years back um which if you're holding any other stock in a traditional

731
01:04:36,708 --> 01:04:41,848
framework like if you're holding any other energy stocks like mara outperformed probably every

732
01:04:41,848 --> 01:04:47,628
single one of your energy stocks over that same horizon but then you compare it to something like

733
01:04:47,628 --> 01:04:56,388
MSTR where it's up 876% and they're leveraging Bitcoin. And at the same time, you know, ATM

734
01:04:56,388 --> 01:05:01,508
accretion dilution, they're, you know, selling stock and buying more Bitcoin, which is making

735
01:05:01,508 --> 01:05:07,748
the whole thing worth more. So just an interesting perspective, right? Like this is the risk. The

736
01:05:07,748 --> 01:05:13,748
risk is you're holding something with a different risk profile than underlying Bitcoin itself.

737
01:05:13,748 --> 01:05:18,988
and you miss face-ripping rallies at different points of time.

738
01:05:20,248 --> 01:05:24,228
Yeah, well, there's also value in having a position.

739
01:05:24,368 --> 01:05:26,908
So if you want to look up, just look up what Iron has done year-to-date.

740
01:05:27,708 --> 01:05:29,788
300% last week or so.

741
01:05:29,788 --> 01:05:32,088
Yeah, Iron's crushing it.

742
01:05:32,548 --> 01:05:33,908
Mike Alfred, does he listen to the stream?

743
01:05:34,188 --> 01:05:37,568
No, he's probably sipping a $1,000 bottle of wine somewhere,

744
01:05:37,728 --> 01:05:38,788
taking his mom out to dinner.

745
01:05:40,488 --> 01:05:41,928
Or he's drinking some Aquatana.

746
01:05:42,248 --> 01:05:42,988
He's probably drinking that too.

747
01:05:42,988 --> 01:05:43,568
Definitely steak.

748
01:05:43,568 --> 01:05:49,888
ironed up 356 yeah yeah now so the reason why i bring this up is i had to hold it all through

749
01:05:49,888 --> 01:05:56,368
last year all into this year to see that move so i people that i think they're just going to get

750
01:05:56,368 --> 01:06:03,888
into it and get a run to jeff's point there's there's a lot of risk and what you're going to

751
01:06:03,888 --> 01:06:09,808
have to experience so if you have conviction to hold more power to you but once you get your move

752
01:06:09,808 --> 01:06:15,088
it doesn't hurt to take something off the table because this entire run has been the ai narrative

753
01:06:15,088 --> 01:06:20,928
this has had nothing to do with bitcoin correct and that's why we're levering up for the bitcoin

754
01:06:20,928 --> 01:06:28,048
run now and to clarify we all know spot miners and don't plan to uh right now as well it's just

755
01:06:28,608 --> 01:06:34,128
just sniping uh the opportunity here as as it aligns with the bitcoin thesis so again not

756
01:06:34,128 --> 01:06:41,088
financial advice but framing framing some of that move a little bit but you've got people in the

757
01:06:41,088 --> 01:06:48,448
chat saying long mstr short i think the the other interesting point here is like what's what's iron's

758
01:06:48,448 --> 01:06:55,968
market cap now like five billion six billion i forget pretty small like on a relative basis

759
01:06:56,688 --> 01:07:02,128
so yeah getting a getting move like this it doesn't take a ton of capital to get a huge move

760
01:07:02,128 --> 01:07:10,768
like that once these once these what does it say right here yeah oh 13 billion oh my god yeah i

761
01:07:10,768 --> 01:07:17,168
guess it's 47 13 billion yeah i mean that's a lot it's moved really quickly i mean what it's up

762
01:07:17,168 --> 01:07:22,448
just in the last month it's probably uh it's gone from a four billion dollar market cap to

763
01:07:22,448 --> 01:07:31,408
a 12 billion dollar mark yep it's cooking totally cooking okay we got uh we got soleil backstage

764
01:07:31,408 --> 01:07:37,728
adrian uh is it time to walk the dogs just about you're gonna jump off too all right go for it

765
01:07:37,728 --> 01:07:44,128
final thoughts adrian mason before you head out um i hope everyone bought mstr in the 300

766
01:07:44,128 --> 01:07:50,768
dollars like i was screaming he backed up the dump truck um but no besides that i think q4 is

767
01:07:50,768 --> 01:07:54,608
gonna be great i think that we are you know i think bitcoin is going to be well i think msr

768
01:07:54,608 --> 01:07:57,968
is going to do well i think that the um bitcoin treasury is going to do well i think the miners

769
01:07:57,968 --> 01:08:02,608
are going to do well i think we are in the the part of the market right now where we're going

770
01:08:02,608 --> 01:08:07,328
to see most of the returns for the year um just give the the words of caution i gave with the

771
01:08:07,328 --> 01:08:10,608
miners is that the moves that we've seen with some of them have been ai related not bitcoin

772
01:08:10,608 --> 01:08:14,848
related so don't assume that there's a bitcoin move coming right after the ai move with some of

773
01:08:14,848 --> 01:08:19,728
them not saying any names just throwing it out there because i held a lot some of these for a

774
01:08:19,728 --> 01:08:25,168
while and it's been painful um but besides that i think everyone that's held that's um maintained

775
01:08:25,168 --> 01:08:29,168
their positions that's gone through the ups and downs we're about to see the returns that's my

776
01:08:29,168 --> 01:08:34,288
guess for q4 i think liquidity is lining up i think seasonality is lining up i think that we

777
01:08:34,288 --> 01:08:39,008
have everything lining up with regards to commodities like everything that dan mentioned

778
01:08:39,008 --> 01:08:44,208
um i think everything is lining up right now for a good q4 so let's let's enjoy the ride

779
01:08:46,688 --> 01:08:54,368
let's enjoy the ride mason over to you if you're a long-term believer in the bitcoin treasury thesis

780
01:08:54,368 --> 01:09:00,528
right now there's some amazing opportunities out there i bought most my mstr when it was trading at

781
01:09:00,528 --> 01:09:08,208
a discount to its bitcoin and and that and the operating business was you know valued as nothing

782
01:09:08,208 --> 01:09:17,808
zero as well so yeah so i think um i think those opportunities are out there right now if if you

783
01:09:17,808 --> 01:09:23,568
do your research if you're actually going through the filings and looking at the financials and

784
01:09:23,568 --> 01:09:30,128
and looking at the management team and they're out there and and i think uh i think some

785
01:09:30,128 --> 01:09:36,928
institutions later this year might wisen up to these if bitcoin really starts to heat up and

786
01:09:36,928 --> 01:09:47,168
there's a you know general fomo in the market so um but yeah i would say i would say if you have a

787
01:09:47,168 --> 01:09:54,128
long-term thesis now now is the time to take a look at these companies because there's some deals out

788
01:09:54,128 --> 01:10:03,408
there yeah i think looking long term at a lot of these things right there's uh if you're long bitcoin

789
01:10:04,448 --> 01:10:10,048
you can take the same exact approach hold it for four years hold on for dear life right and uh

790
01:10:10,048 --> 01:10:19,288
dead guy portfolio always wins. You just long the equities, sit and spot, don't take on leverage,

791
01:10:20,128 --> 01:10:25,268
and go live your life, touch grass, get out there, and make the world a better place.

792
01:10:26,188 --> 01:10:31,108
I think there's a lot to that. Well, keep cooking, Mason. I know you got some competitors in the

793
01:10:31,108 --> 01:10:36,588
Brazilian space now, and you're out there talking to Capitol in New York and going to high rises

794
01:10:36,588 --> 01:10:41,228
outside of central park and convincing people to buy equity and doing all that jazz so uh

795
01:10:42,268 --> 01:10:47,548
mason you are a really good example of what just putting yourself out there and talking in the

796
01:10:47,548 --> 01:10:52,508
space can really do because like you're you're now working for one of these companies you're

797
01:10:52,508 --> 01:10:58,348
connecting to people you're seeing for yourself can you give like a no-name basis anecdote of

798
01:10:58,348 --> 01:11:05,148
the conversation you had this week um yeah i what i'll say what i'll say uh broadly

799
01:11:05,148 --> 01:11:11,688
and this relates to digital asset treasuries not bitcoin treasuries i will say that these

800
01:11:11,688 --> 01:11:20,048
it is very true that there is a ton of uh capital allocators in the world who have to buy equity

801
01:11:20,048 --> 01:11:30,668
in very you know very niche sectors you know they they can't just buy the s p 500 and um

802
01:11:30,668 --> 01:11:48,068
A lot of these capital allocators are very interested in companies in other regions or companies within the U.S. buying cryptos, any cryptos.

803
01:11:48,068 --> 01:12:02,688
Because believe it or not, there's a lot of cryptos that have more attention, more volatility, are essentially more interesting than XYZ company in XYZ country.

804
01:12:03,488 --> 01:12:10,208
so um that's really that's really eye-opening and what i would generally say is that these guys are

805
01:12:10,208 --> 01:12:17,408
kind of oblivious to what bitcoin actually represents what's happening here with bitcoin

806
01:12:18,608 --> 01:12:25,488
on the fundamental you know paradigm shift level of this is an invention equivalent to fire

807
01:12:25,488 --> 01:12:33,728
electricity etc to them no it's it's it's just digitizing something volatile and and and or

808
01:12:33,728 --> 01:12:40,608
securitizing something volatile and they don't care what it is so that was that that's that's

809
01:12:40,608 --> 01:12:49,008
what i sent into the chat i was like man these guys do not know what's going on and yeah they

810
01:12:49,008 --> 01:13:03,248
very confidently do not know what's going on very very confidently yes yeah it's uh it is crazy that

811
01:13:03,248 --> 01:13:07,408
you start to see when you when you're working in the space and i i could say this with certainty as

812
01:13:07,408 --> 01:13:14,288
well like everybody like i'm working full time i'm working overtime i'm you know on the computer until

813
01:13:14,288 --> 01:13:23,308
12 midnight, one o'clock in the morning, like doing stuff. And it makes sense that these people

814
01:13:23,308 --> 01:13:27,788
aren't grasping what's happening here because they're just in la-la land working on something

815
01:13:27,788 --> 01:13:34,468
else, working on 10,000 other things, or their equity investors focused on 200 different things.

816
01:13:34,588 --> 01:13:38,148
And they can't go deep on one thing. They can't find the best thing. So they're like,

817
01:13:38,148 --> 01:13:45,588
let's just shotgun a bunch of, you know, uh, high volatility, uh, differentiated equity plays in the

818
01:13:45,588 --> 01:13:50,488
market. And you're one of them is going to hit and the other nine of them are going to be duds

819
01:13:50,488 --> 01:13:57,048
and we're still going to win. Whereas what everybody here on this screen is doing is

820
01:13:57,048 --> 01:14:02,128
incredibly focused on like this sector. Like this is the, this is the best sector. This is the space

821
01:14:02,128 --> 01:14:06,548
to be. We know everything about this space and what's going on. And then you go talk to these

822
01:14:06,548 --> 01:14:13,348
outside people and you expect them to know like you know and it's it's like so glaringly obvious

823
01:14:13,348 --> 01:14:19,348
immediately that like how far how far ahead we are and like one year in this space is like seven years

824
01:14:20,068 --> 01:14:26,948
and it it it feels uncomfortable it feels really uncomfortable having to start from scratch yeah

825
01:14:27,668 --> 01:14:35,748
and what i will say is there is so much capital out there that literally needs to to find something

826
01:14:35,748 --> 01:14:45,268
to be invested in that add bond of the week 1.2 billion dollars in hertz 12 and 12 and and again

827
01:14:45,268 --> 01:14:50,068
this goes back to my earlier point this is a symptom of money fundamentally being broken

828
01:14:50,628 --> 01:14:59,348
where they need to cram it into something you can't hold dollars yeah yeah and right now a lot

829
01:14:59,348 --> 01:15:06,068
of it's there's actually a lot of money holding dollars treasuries and uh a lot of money getting

830
01:15:06,068 --> 01:15:11,268
shoved into ai because they're like that's the thing the ai is the thing how much did the people

831
01:15:11,268 --> 01:15:18,628
ask about ai when you when you're talking about you know it was it was crypto and ai i was the crypto

832
01:15:20,228 --> 01:15:26,468
you know like you're my crypto guy you're young you're wearing a suit okay i like you

833
01:15:26,468 --> 01:15:32,788
you yeah right on okay well keep us updated i i want more new york updates next time

834
01:15:35,828 --> 01:15:38,388
cool okay thanks adrian thanks guys

835
01:15:40,548 --> 01:15:43,508
one quick tag on that jeff um i was talking about like the

836
01:15:44,068 --> 01:15:48,468
how uneducated hold on is anybody else hearing that is that weird

837
01:15:49,668 --> 01:15:54,948
dan restart plug unplug your mic and plug it back in

838
01:15:56,708 --> 01:16:00,388
what's up so what's up i can't replace either one of those guys but let alone both of them

839
01:16:03,508 --> 01:16:09,908
yes that's bad it's horrible that's that is horrible i don't know what is going on there

840
01:16:11,268 --> 01:16:15,028
what up ben what's up guys is this where we come for mining drew north

841
01:16:16,788 --> 01:16:25,348
my mining true north yeah both dan's both dan's are long short-term calls mining uh

842
01:16:25,348 --> 01:16:27,408
Bitcoin mining, energy mining.

843
01:16:27,588 --> 01:16:30,028
We just like talking about like, you know, that kind of stuff.

844
01:16:30,088 --> 01:16:31,168
I think it's interesting to look at.

845
01:16:31,708 --> 01:16:32,408
Oh, it is.

846
01:16:32,748 --> 01:16:33,828
Oh, dad comes in.

847
01:16:33,908 --> 01:16:35,088
Oh, we just like talking about it.

848
01:16:35,688 --> 01:16:36,668
It is interesting.

849
01:16:36,808 --> 01:16:37,788
I mean, I'm not going to rehash it.

850
01:16:37,928 --> 01:16:41,388
I was listening while you guys were talking about it for a while, so I won't rehash it.

851
01:16:41,468 --> 01:16:46,468
But have you guys been finding it fun running a hedge fund now?

852
01:16:46,748 --> 01:16:49,468
I mean, you have to look at the market entirely differently.

853
01:16:50,468 --> 01:16:55,248
And I think that's one of the biggest things that people probably don't understand about the shift.

854
01:16:55,348 --> 01:17:02,908
that you guys made is yes, in the early days, while we all got to be incredibly, you know,

855
01:17:02,908 --> 01:17:07,368
myopic and just focus on one security and we just needed to be right about the one security

856
01:17:07,368 --> 01:17:10,708
when you're running somebody else's capital, it's very different.

857
01:17:10,708 --> 01:17:13,968
And you guys have a charter for how you need to perform.

858
01:17:13,968 --> 01:17:20,348
Has it been entertaining to be able to branch out from just kind of the treasury plus Bitcoin

859
01:17:20,348 --> 01:17:25,028
space and have to look more broad in the ecosystem?

860
01:17:25,348 --> 01:17:31,048
Yeah, I think it's a good mental exercise, but I mean, we're just a lot more conservative with everything.

861
01:17:31,048 --> 01:17:48,064
And we also looking at like if we going to take risk outside of Bitcoin it got to have asymmetric payoffs But I mean I think it just heightened what we all been trying to do in our personal accounts but we using smaller position sizing with like you know potentially higher expected payouts like i remember thinking early on i think that why we all got together in this group right

862
01:17:48,064 --> 01:17:52,864
we were like oh like if we're going to outperform bitcoin believe it has a 30 40 50 kegger then the

863
01:17:52,864 --> 01:17:58,384
thing's got to rip and we got to do it intelligently we have to not lose money so i think mstr at one

864
01:17:58,384 --> 01:18:03,024
point in time it still continues to be like that kind of outperformance play and there are other

865
01:18:03,024 --> 01:18:07,984
opportunities out there is what we've been kind of finding but i actually think it's really worthwhile

866
01:18:07,984 --> 01:18:13,424
even just for other investors when you go and explore all of these other sectors that are out

867
01:18:13,424 --> 01:18:18,304
there looking for opportunity because the one thing it does is it grounds you in just how hard

868
01:18:18,304 --> 01:18:24,624
it is to beat bitcoin i mean you're turning over every rock you're going into every you know sector

869
01:18:24,624 --> 01:18:29,664
that people are hyping up and looking for opportunities there but you you quickly realize

870
01:18:29,664 --> 01:18:36,864
how hard it is to just simply beat spot bitcoin yeah exactly so it i found the same thing i've

871
01:18:36,864 --> 01:18:40,864
been all over the place in the markets and i know we've talked about this you know on our internal

872
01:18:40,864 --> 01:18:45,424
calls and stuff but you know i've been all over the markets you know looking for things that are

873
01:18:45,424 --> 01:18:49,824
exciting because i'm one of those guys that believes if you're going to pay any attention

874
01:18:50,384 --> 01:18:55,984
to something you've got to have some skin in the game right that's what really grab makes you focus

875
01:18:55,984 --> 01:19:02,144
and pay attention to what you're looking at there but what it taught me over time was that my

876
01:19:02,144 --> 01:19:08,624
allocation to bitcoin wasn't high enough and it just continued to creep higher and higher over the

877
01:19:08,624 --> 01:19:13,184
last several years because i figured out just how hard it was going to be to beat that hurdle rate

878
01:19:13,184 --> 01:19:17,184
it's very difficult and you have to use a lot of times if you're out in other sectors you have to

879
01:19:17,184 --> 01:19:22,944
be using leverage and things to outperform so it's it's difficult and it's high risk and you gotta

880
01:19:22,944 --> 01:19:28,064
to really train that muscle to manage that and be ready to cut leverage at the right

881
01:19:28,064 --> 01:19:30,704
times and can't get greedy with profits.

882
01:19:30,864 --> 01:19:34,664
It's a fun exercise because it completely refines how you invest over time.

883
01:19:35,344 --> 01:19:35,704
Totally.

884
01:19:36,424 --> 01:19:37,364
It's definitely going to be hard.

885
01:19:37,424 --> 01:19:38,444
I also appreciate Bitcoin.

886
01:19:38,924 --> 01:19:39,164
Sorry.

887
01:19:39,304 --> 01:19:39,664
Yeah.

888
01:19:40,324 --> 01:19:45,404
And even if you do find someone that is beating Bitcoin, there's going to be other

889
01:19:45,404 --> 01:19:52,224
entrepreneurs that try to copy it or are just eager to disrupt it and and do it, you

890
01:19:52,224 --> 01:20:00,484
know cheaper or faster or just in some way disrupt it so it's kind of like the people who are beating

891
01:20:00,484 --> 01:20:07,224
bitcoin might not be beating bitcoin in that way for very long so it's yeah there's a time exactly

892
01:20:07,224 --> 01:20:15,024
even even when i look at gold right like uh i know a lot of people have gold in their portfolio

893
01:20:15,024 --> 01:20:22,684
I've got a little bit of gold in my portfolio, but I, I just look at the relative sizing.

894
01:20:23,004 --> 01:20:24,344
And I think about this a lot.

895
01:20:24,384 --> 01:20:31,584
I just, I like to compare and like sort things, uh, in terms of size and scale and like relativities.

896
01:20:31,744 --> 01:20:33,724
That's kind of how I see the world.

897
01:20:33,904 --> 01:20:38,824
I try to make it simple because I don't have the time to do, uh, like the Dan Hillary crazy

898
01:20:38,824 --> 01:20:42,164
exercise and like blocking out the time risk.

899
01:20:42,164 --> 01:20:49,104
and I look at gold as a 26 trillion dollar asset and you're like okay well there's nothing ahead of

900
01:20:49,104 --> 01:20:53,904
it it's the largest it's it it could keep going but like how much how far does it keep going

901
01:20:53,904 --> 01:20:59,544
and what's its terminal velocity does it have a terminal velocity is there a better opportunity

902
01:20:59,544 --> 01:21:06,004
and I think like digital gold catching up to gold is a better opportunity so if my if I have

903
01:21:06,004 --> 01:21:14,564
more than 10, 12 year time horizon risk, why would I not be a hundred percent YOLO'd Bitcoin

904
01:21:14,564 --> 01:21:21,664
relative to gold thinking about that horizon? And I know a lot of older people think the

905
01:21:21,664 --> 01:21:27,964
complete opposite. Why would I take Bitcoin risk when I'm 65 years old and I just want to

906
01:21:27,964 --> 01:21:35,604
keep my money and live the rest of my life? So there's a little bit of a dynamic shifting

907
01:21:35,604 --> 01:21:43,344
population dynamic and this time horizon. Good news is now they've got products for both of those

908
01:21:43,344 --> 01:21:48,864
people. That's right. You have the Bitcoin or you can have the product that's powered by the Bitcoin.

909
01:21:49,024 --> 01:21:52,724
You don't necessarily have to take on the volatility anymore. You can be senior in a

910
01:21:52,724 --> 01:21:58,524
capital structure and get average E500 returns while you're over collateralized, you know,

911
01:21:58,524 --> 01:22:05,284
many times over with the ability to monitor that position in real time. I mean, that's what's so

912
01:22:05,284 --> 01:22:12,564
powerful about digital credit and these coming into the market is it's going to make that possible

913
01:22:12,564 --> 01:22:16,964
on the back of the one certainty that we've all come to know which is the constant devaluing of

914
01:22:16,964 --> 01:22:23,284
the dollar which is going to drive the constant raising of the hard assets and so but now you've

915
01:22:23,284 --> 01:22:30,004
got products that will appeal to people that feel like they're still going much too far out the risk

916
01:22:30,004 --> 01:22:34,924
curve on something like Bitcoin, even though for all of us, you know, we view that as the safety

917
01:22:34,924 --> 01:22:39,704
play, right? You're betting on the one certainty we all know is coming over the next decade,

918
01:22:39,704 --> 01:22:42,604
which is massive printing and devaluation of the dollar.

919
01:22:44,464 --> 01:22:51,444
Yeah. So Ben, I know you speak with your father about this. I mean, how's he view it? You've

920
01:22:51,444 --> 01:22:59,144
talked to him about the Bitcoin backed bonds, the STRC, the preferred equities, and obviously

921
01:22:59,144 --> 01:23:05,824
older than you. He's got a different perspective. How do you communicate with him

922
01:23:05,824 --> 01:23:11,124
about these instruments? To be honest, he got fascinated by them pretty quickly,

923
01:23:11,124 --> 01:23:16,884
but he's been in a regulated industry. So he was a financial advisor, still is a financial advisor.

924
01:23:17,804 --> 01:23:23,704
And he was at one of these firms that was blocking Bitcoin investment. So they had access

925
01:23:23,704 --> 01:23:28,144
for the last couple of years to the Bitcoin equities, which was effectively micro strategy,

926
01:23:28,144 --> 01:23:32,464
but that was the only way to get exposure to bitcoin but when you start seeing these fixed

927
01:23:32,464 --> 01:23:39,344
income products come out it solves a really massive need for a lot of his clients and so

928
01:23:40,384 --> 01:23:45,424
you know one of the things he told me early on was he realized that being a financial advisor

929
01:23:45,424 --> 01:23:49,344
you're not in the wealth creation business you're in the wealth preservation business

930
01:23:50,384 --> 01:23:56,384
and you're not allowed to take risk effectively right so with all the compliance that you have

931
01:23:57,264 --> 01:24:01,584
playing over top of you if you try to do anything farther out the risk curve or you start

932
01:24:01,584 --> 01:24:06,144
concentrating in single equities you know you start getting calls pretty frequently

933
01:24:07,184 --> 01:24:13,984
but at this point in time a lot of the clientele that's using financial advisors is reaching

934
01:24:14,704 --> 01:24:20,704
the later stage of life now and they're shifting to the need for stability right they've got fixed

935
01:24:20,704 --> 01:24:25,664
expenses not everyone's been able to accumulate you know millions millions of dollars and they've

936
01:24:25,664 --> 01:24:30,144
got fixed obligations that they have to meet and so you've got a lot of people looking at what do

937
01:24:30,144 --> 01:24:37,184
i have coming in from social security and then what do i need to live beyond that so fixed income

938
01:24:37,184 --> 01:24:44,144
products that are effectively providing you the yield like you stayed in equities is massive it

939
01:24:44,144 --> 01:24:51,104
takes time certainly to get people comfortable with the products i mean these these products are

940
01:24:51,104 --> 01:24:55,424
less than a year old right so obviously there's going to be a curve here but the conversation's

941
01:24:55,424 --> 01:25:01,344
start now because there's options even if it's a part of diversifying out the fixed income

942
01:25:01,344 --> 01:25:05,824
component of your portfolio but you're able to do it at a higher yield when you can get comfortable

943
01:25:05,824 --> 01:25:12,464
with collateral positions i mean these are amazing products for people that are reaching retirement

944
01:25:13,024 --> 01:25:18,064
so i think these over time are going to catch up and where they might get a lot of market

945
01:25:18,064 --> 01:25:24,784
penetration is through that financial advisor route because these are securities that they'll

946
01:25:24,784 --> 01:25:30,704
be able to offer their fixed income which is very comfortable from a compliance perspective

947
01:25:31,504 --> 01:25:38,304
and once the analysts start covering them and providing insights into that over collateralization

948
01:25:38,304 --> 01:25:42,944
component to these showing that this is not going far out the risk curve to achieve these high yields

949
01:25:43,584 --> 01:25:47,904
these are products that are really going to enable people to meet all their financial goals in

950
01:25:47,904 --> 01:25:53,344
retirement so you know we look at these from our point in life where we've all you know still got

951
01:25:53,344 --> 01:25:58,184
got a lot of years to work left and, you know, try to accumulate. We're still in the accumulation

952
01:25:58,184 --> 01:26:02,984
phase where we haven't shifted over to the preservation phase. Although arguably you could

953
01:26:02,984 --> 01:26:07,324
say we've been in the preservation phase for a long time now because we flipped over to Bitcoin,

954
01:26:08,244 --> 01:26:13,724
but it's one of those things where, you know, it's like Saylor says, people find Bitcoin when

955
01:26:13,724 --> 01:26:18,704
they need to. I think that same thing is going to be applicable for these prefs. I think you're

956
01:26:18,704 --> 01:26:23,084
going to have a lot of people that need to find these prefs in the next, call it five years.

957
01:26:23,084 --> 01:26:27,484
you have a huge population that's aging out of the workforce that's going to be going down to a fixed

958
01:26:27,484 --> 01:26:35,004
income that creates a need to find these types of products so i think just being able to screen down

959
01:26:35,004 --> 01:26:40,444
and find things providing this high a dividends is going to attract a lot of interest here as

960
01:26:40,444 --> 01:26:47,964
people are shifting their portfolios from growth to preservation so what what it would take i'm just

961
01:26:47,964 --> 01:26:53,384
just trying to put this in different words, what it would take is because you've got monetary

962
01:26:53,384 --> 01:26:59,644
debasement, some fixed income need calculation that you had calculated, let's just say you needed

963
01:26:59,644 --> 01:27:06,144
$5,000 a month. And now on a real terms basis, that's now $6,000 a month. You can't

964
01:27:06,824 --> 01:27:11,824
buy those same amount of bonds to cover your $5,000 a month. You've got to look for higher

965
01:27:11,824 --> 01:27:16,624
yield. You got to go further out of the risk curve or change your 60-40 portfolio to 50-50

966
01:27:16,624 --> 01:27:19,784
or do something weird.

967
01:27:20,124 --> 01:27:22,164
The other thing that happens to a lot of people too

968
01:27:22,164 --> 01:27:24,764
is when you get into that last year or two,

969
01:27:25,084 --> 01:27:26,724
when you're coming into the end of your career,

970
01:27:27,404 --> 01:27:31,044
a market correction can scare the heck out of you

971
01:27:31,044 --> 01:27:33,824
because you see your base dwindle.

972
01:27:34,504 --> 01:27:35,344
So like right now,

973
01:27:35,344 --> 01:27:37,724
if we started getting a major market correction,

974
01:27:37,724 --> 01:27:40,684
I'm not seeing one coming, but you never know, right?

975
01:27:40,704 --> 01:27:42,044
They always show up when you're not looking for them.

976
01:27:42,064 --> 01:27:45,524
But if you got one and you've got this huge cohort of people

977
01:27:45,524 --> 01:27:51,364
that are leaving the workforce now, that is what causes people to panic into cash, right?

978
01:27:51,384 --> 01:27:56,884
They can't take the risk anymore because they've got a point where the math stops working for them.

979
01:27:57,564 --> 01:28:02,684
And usually the math that they're using is, you know, you need to generate four to four and a half

980
01:28:02,684 --> 01:28:07,364
percent out of your portfolio. And that's kind of what you're going to live on in retirement if you

981
01:28:07,364 --> 01:28:15,044
don't want to run out of money. Well, if you can plug in, you know, nine, 10% into that equation,

982
01:28:15,044 --> 01:28:22,424
And even if it's blended with other assets that are paying you four, four and a half, that's a massive difference in where that bottom is.

983
01:28:23,324 --> 01:28:30,604
So it is one of those interesting things because you have to think through all these investments from the perspective of all these different generations.

984
01:28:30,604 --> 01:28:45,004
Because while our generations are becoming very aware of the issues with the money and how Bitcoin solves those problems, most of the people in that older generation are never even going to look at it.

985
01:28:45,044 --> 01:28:48,944
but they will look at equities that have high yields.

986
01:28:49,264 --> 01:28:51,204
And if that helps them stabilize,

987
01:28:51,204 --> 01:28:53,124
and it might even be able to allow them

988
01:28:53,124 --> 01:28:57,444
to keep a larger component of that in growth equities,

989
01:28:57,444 --> 01:29:00,424
or maybe they end up in strike and you get the blend of both,

990
01:29:00,484 --> 01:29:03,344
but you get the 8% or whatever it is now

991
01:29:03,344 --> 01:29:06,004
on the actual cash yield, 13%, something like that.

992
01:29:07,024 --> 01:29:08,844
I mean, there's interesting products now

993
01:29:08,844 --> 01:29:10,864
that they can start to slot into that portfolio.

994
01:29:11,804 --> 01:29:13,744
And I think that's going to end up

995
01:29:13,744 --> 01:29:18,584
helping a lot of people. So the demand we've seen for these so far, I think is minuscule

996
01:29:18,584 --> 01:29:23,884
relative to what's probably coming over the next five years, because that is the type of investor

997
01:29:23,884 --> 01:29:29,484
that's going to be rotating out of growth equities and more into fixed income products.

998
01:29:30,484 --> 01:29:37,564
They're like the rotation magnet. If anything's overvalued and there's any fear,

999
01:29:39,024 --> 01:29:41,324
yeah, people are going to rotate into dollars. That's just going to happen.

1000
01:29:41,324 --> 01:29:46,904
but a larger, larger portion of people are going to be rotating into these types of Bitcoin backed

1001
01:29:46,904 --> 01:29:53,884
fixed income equities because of the yield and the security. Both pieces, the yield and the security.

1002
01:29:55,644 --> 01:30:01,044
Yeah. I mean, it's a way to stabilize too. So for instance, with the higher yields now

1003
01:30:01,044 --> 01:30:06,064
in these products relative to everything else that they're holding, I can look at my overall

1004
01:30:06,064 --> 01:30:12,064
portfolio and go, all right, I know what I need to live within a range. If I take all of my fixed

1005
01:30:12,064 --> 01:30:17,424
obligations here, right, my mortgages, my bills, all the fixed obligations that I'm going to have,

1006
01:30:17,424 --> 01:30:23,024
I can carve off a smaller piece of that portfolio and move it earlier into these fixed products

1007
01:30:23,024 --> 01:30:29,464
that are going to provide me the stability that my capital base is going to be there and the yield

1008
01:30:29,464 --> 01:30:34,404
that I'm generating is sufficient to cover everything I need to day-to-day live my life,

1009
01:30:34,404 --> 01:30:38,484
which can allow me to leave the other part still out there for growth.

1010
01:30:39,724 --> 01:30:42,724
And so you may actually be able to improve your capital base here.

1011
01:30:42,844 --> 01:30:46,844
So not to make this a financial advisor type discussion here,

1012
01:30:46,844 --> 01:30:51,424
but I think it's interesting to look at all of these products from the

1013
01:30:51,424 --> 01:30:52,984
perspective of different investors,

1014
01:30:52,984 --> 01:30:58,744
because most of the investors we come into contact with want 3000% a year

1015
01:30:58,744 --> 01:31:01,744
returns and they're willing to go way out the risk curve for it.

1016
01:31:01,984 --> 01:31:03,744
But that is not most people.

1017
01:31:03,744 --> 01:31:14,744
So if you're looking at where do these products fit in for most people and why are these products powerful, just go model out retirement for someone that's achieved a million dollars, which sounds like a lot of money.

1018
01:31:14,944 --> 01:31:19,544
But after all the money has been debased for so many years, it's not nearly as much as it used to be.

1019
01:31:19,544 --> 01:31:32,604
And add in mortgages and health care costs and the rising price groceries and all these things, it doesn't last you as long as you'd think if you are only gaining, say you're making five or six percent and drawn four and a half.

1020
01:31:32,604 --> 01:31:36,704
you know the purchasing power erodes out of that portfolio really really quickly

1021
01:31:36,704 --> 01:31:44,204
so you have to start being a little more creative if you weren't fortunate enough to inherit money

1022
01:31:44,204 --> 01:31:48,924
or make a bunch of money during your career where you could save you know you've got to start looking

1023
01:31:48,924 --> 01:31:54,664
for what other products provide me the opportunity without drastically ramping up my risk profile

1024
01:31:54,664 --> 01:32:00,724
and these do that in a really big way because like we've talked about they're effectively

1025
01:32:00,724 --> 01:32:09,524
triple a credit if they'd get rated so triple a but i think it's largely up to financial advisors

1026
01:32:09,524 --> 01:32:14,644
to learn that and they'll be slow to it right it's not gonna happen fast but i think there's

1027
01:32:15,204 --> 01:32:22,324
two three four years here where as these continue to perform they'll start to get highlighted more

1028
01:32:22,324 --> 01:32:27,204
and more and as digital credit becomes more prevalent and bitcoin continues to perform

1029
01:32:27,204 --> 01:32:31,784
it'll become a very normal part of the conversation over time because it's a

1030
01:32:31,784 --> 01:32:34,964
home run product if they can get comfortable with what it is and how it

1031
01:32:34,964 --> 01:32:35,284
works.

1032
01:32:37,784 --> 01:32:38,644
And they will.

1033
01:32:39,844 --> 01:32:41,004
We're in year one.

1034
01:32:41,184 --> 01:32:41,984
Like this is a,

1035
01:32:42,204 --> 01:32:45,364
this is year one of the next hundred years is,

1036
01:32:45,424 --> 01:32:45,844
you know,

1037
01:32:45,944 --> 01:32:47,344
Bitcoin back digital,

1038
01:32:47,604 --> 01:32:51,604
digital credit on digital cryptography.

1039
01:32:51,604 --> 01:32:56,064
It'll only take a few financial advisors to start the ball rolling,

1040
01:32:56,644 --> 01:32:56,804
you know,

1041
01:32:56,804 --> 01:33:03,264
Because once people that have financial advisors, they all talk to each other and they talk about the performance.

1042
01:33:03,804 --> 01:33:22,540
And are you happy with your financial advisor and money transfers from parents to kids And then they starting to have those conversations And if you got somebody that took these types of steps and helped stabilize a portfolio for someone that word gets out And if they outperforming and generating higher yields and that person has

1043
01:33:22,540 --> 01:33:26,340
more income to live off of from someone else that had a relatively similar standing,

1044
01:33:26,960 --> 01:33:31,360
it makes a massive difference. And that message gets around and capital starts to concentrate

1045
01:33:31,360 --> 01:33:36,800
to those types of advisors. So it'll happen, but it'll just take some time.

1046
01:33:37,120 --> 01:33:47,320
Yeah, it's the, how'd you buy a new BMW? Well, my financial advisor has these new Bitcoin backed digital yield products. Have you heard of them? And they're like,

1047
01:33:47,440 --> 01:33:55,620
They wouldn't even talk about it like that. They would just say, I got into a fixed income product that makes me 10% and is eight to one over collateralized.

1048
01:33:55,800 --> 01:33:55,960
Yeah.

1049
01:33:56,000 --> 01:33:59,620
Right. Like that's the conversation in, you know, normal land.

1050
01:34:02,500 --> 01:34:04,080
And there's a lot of normies out there.

1051
01:34:04,080 --> 01:34:04,260
Yeah.

1052
01:34:05,120 --> 01:34:06,020
Almost everyone you know.

1053
01:34:06,020 --> 01:34:13,780
a lot of zombie there's a lot of zombie normies out there um it was funny i uh i got a message

1054
01:34:13,780 --> 01:34:23,340
from one of my friends today and uh i was like okay it's it's it's happening i i got i got a

1055
01:34:23,340 --> 01:34:27,360
message can you explain like i'm five what you're doing with bitcoin i've watched a few clips on

1056
01:34:27,360 --> 01:34:35,740
linkedin and i don't understand it and it's funny funny enough he got me to buy bitcoin in like 2016

1057
01:34:35,740 --> 01:34:41,140
And so he's like familiar with what's happening here, but it's just,

1058
01:34:41,280 --> 01:34:45,460
this is not on any, this is not on anybody's radar, like whatsoever.

1059
01:34:46,420 --> 01:34:51,420
Um, especially if you're just not working in finance and you just living your life.

1060
01:34:51,560 --> 01:34:54,340
My mom was texting me questions about the hurdle rate podcast today.

1061
01:34:54,340 --> 01:34:57,760
So, you know, there's like super cycles.

1062
01:34:57,760 --> 01:34:59,280
I hear this super cycle.

1063
01:35:00,840 --> 01:35:04,080
I think this conversation is going to get a lot louder.

1064
01:35:04,080 --> 01:35:12,120
And I think a lot of that's going to be driven by these products because these have the familiar structure that people can understand.

1065
01:35:13,080 --> 01:35:13,180
Right.

1066
01:35:13,340 --> 01:35:21,260
Equities backed by Bitcoin is tough for people to understand, but collateral and dividends makes clear sense to people.

1067
01:35:21,340 --> 01:35:22,840
They understand those terms.

1068
01:35:22,960 --> 01:35:25,240
So these are products you can talk about in normal terms.

1069
01:35:25,660 --> 01:35:31,760
And it ultimately leads to the discovery and research of Bitcoin.

1070
01:35:31,760 --> 01:35:34,660
because for some, not for very many, actually,

1071
01:35:34,780 --> 01:35:36,680
most will just take the yield and go good enough

1072
01:35:36,680 --> 01:35:37,620
and they'll put money there.

1073
01:35:37,700 --> 01:35:38,660
That's how a lot of that works.

1074
01:35:38,780 --> 01:35:41,160
But for some people, it'll spark that curiosity

1075
01:35:41,160 --> 01:35:43,420
about the actual asset that's backing all this

1076
01:35:43,420 --> 01:35:44,860
and they'll want to go down that rabbit hole

1077
01:35:44,860 --> 01:35:47,720
and that'll bring a lot more people into that ecosystem.

1078
01:35:48,080 --> 01:35:50,020
But I think where it'll become very powerful

1079
01:35:50,020 --> 01:35:51,380
is you'll now have a product

1080
01:35:51,380 --> 01:35:54,580
that serves the need of the generation

1081
01:35:54,580 --> 01:35:57,840
that's hitting retirement and aging out of the workforce now.

1082
01:35:57,940 --> 01:35:59,900
But when that money transfers down to the kids

1083
01:35:59,900 --> 01:36:02,320
who still have time,

1084
01:36:02,860 --> 01:36:04,740
that money may find its way

1085
01:36:04,740 --> 01:36:06,560
to actual Bitcoin at that point.

1086
01:36:07,580 --> 01:36:10,240
So there's a lot of interesting things

1087
01:36:10,240 --> 01:36:10,760
on the horizon.

1088
01:36:10,920 --> 01:36:12,820
Sorry not to monopolize this discussion.

1089
01:36:13,460 --> 01:36:13,840
Oh, that's good.

1090
01:36:13,960 --> 01:36:15,180
Can you hear me okay, Jeff?

1091
01:36:16,060 --> 01:36:17,360
Yeah, much better.

1092
01:36:17,600 --> 01:36:18,820
I don't know what's up with the other one.

1093
01:36:19,540 --> 01:36:20,500
But yeah, I was just saying

1094
01:36:20,500 --> 01:36:22,960
all these different equity instruments

1095
01:36:22,960 --> 01:36:24,080
are very important

1096
01:36:24,080 --> 01:36:25,420
towards the adoption of Bitcoin.

1097
01:36:25,800 --> 01:36:27,340
I was at a wedding in Michigan

1098
01:36:27,340 --> 01:36:28,940
here in the neck of the woods, Ben.

1099
01:36:28,940 --> 01:36:33,620
just this last weekend. And I was sitting at a table with a financial advisor,

1100
01:36:34,240 --> 01:36:41,040
five mil and up. He said average 10, 12 million dollar portfolios, 50, 60 clients

1101
01:36:41,040 --> 01:36:46,980
that he personally managed. We were talking about Bitcoin and just all this stuff. And

1102
01:36:46,980 --> 01:36:50,600
I asked if he owned any, because he seemed to understand it pretty well. And he's like,

1103
01:36:51,120 --> 01:36:57,320
what are we, 110 per Bitcoin? He's like, I don't think I could do that. That's expensive.

1104
01:36:57,320 --> 01:37:04,680
And I'm like, he had no idea you could buy $100 of Bitcoin and it's divisible.

1105
01:37:05,040 --> 01:37:09,420
But yet he had allocated Ibit to some portfolios.

1106
01:37:09,600 --> 01:37:16,720
And that's why he was like, well, yeah, I mean, I can get the equity and then I can buy shares that are pegged to Bitcoin.

1107
01:37:17,100 --> 01:37:21,460
So if I have $1,000 to invest, why wouldn't I do that versus put in spot Bitcoin?

1108
01:37:21,600 --> 01:37:23,360
And he had no idea that you could just do that.

1109
01:37:23,360 --> 01:37:27,320
So I was like, dude, we got to download an app right here at the wedding.

1110
01:37:27,500 --> 01:37:28,440
Like, let's install it.

1111
01:37:28,700 --> 01:37:32,280
But to that point, like, there's just so much education that still has to happen.

1112
01:37:32,280 --> 01:37:40,820
And you can be a professional in this space and even have an allocation to iBit and still not understand because you've never interacted with Bitcoin.

1113
01:37:41,180 --> 01:37:43,220
You've never set up a wallet.

1114
01:37:43,400 --> 01:37:46,420
You've never opened a Coinbase account or whatever else, Gemini.

1115
01:37:46,880 --> 01:37:48,980
And you just have no idea how it works.

1116
01:37:49,420 --> 01:37:52,980
But they wanted exposure to the asset.

1117
01:37:53,360 --> 01:37:58,880
class through ibit through an etf which they understood and again this is a guy who's been

1118
01:37:58,880 --> 01:38:03,120
i mean he's about my age he's been doing it for a while good career and again like sizable

1119
01:38:03,120 --> 01:38:10,000
portfolios in the space and quite a large book that he managed and had no idea so that that's

1120
01:38:10,000 --> 01:38:14,800
interesting for whatever that's how early we are my mom won't buy stretch because it's too risky

1121
01:38:14,800 --> 01:38:23,140
like it's fixed it's pegged you know it's supposed to be pegged and interest

1122
01:38:23,140 --> 01:38:26,700
i don't know it's scary it's a stock ticker so it's

1123
01:38:26,700 --> 01:38:35,320
it's an equity it's a it's a scary equity ticker did you talk to her about collateral did you even

1124
01:38:35,320 --> 01:38:40,960
like it was it was it wasn't worth it you're like i can't let's buy this thing it's good

1125
01:38:40,960 --> 01:38:44,160
you get a better yield than let's just play parcheesy and have a good night

1126
01:38:46,240 --> 01:38:53,120
yeah um i i am going to shout out one of my friends i bought this book uh blood of the

1127
01:38:53,120 --> 01:38:59,440
bourgeoisie and by michael sullivan and i'm like 40 pages into it but it's like turning

1128
01:38:59,440 --> 01:39:04,000
bitcoin education into like fiction so if you know anybody that likes murder mysteries

1129
01:39:04,000 --> 01:39:12,040
like it's this tech it's an advanced technological monetary ecosystem like woven through

1130
01:39:12,040 --> 01:39:19,520
uh a fiction narrative and uh like my my chiropractor is bitcoin curious and i'm going to

1131
01:39:19,520 --> 01:39:24,100
bring this book to him and he's like oh yeah i love fiction books i'd happily read that he's like

1132
01:39:24,100 --> 01:39:29,340
he wants to learn about bitcoin and uh but he's like i don't want to spend too much time and like

1133
01:39:29,340 --> 01:39:30,400
I think this is going to be perfect.

1134
01:39:30,540 --> 01:39:41,460
And I think it fits right in with trying to teach people about Bitcoin easily through like a medium that's very adaptable.

1135
01:39:44,060 --> 01:39:45,160
Shout out Michael Sullivan.

1136
01:39:45,320 --> 01:39:48,100
That's a lot of work into creating a fiction book.

1137
01:39:48,700 --> 01:39:52,320
And it like captivated me a lot really quickly.

1138
01:39:52,920 --> 01:39:56,160
It's going to take me a while to get through it just because I've got so many other things going on.

1139
01:39:56,160 --> 01:39:58,700
But it was a fun and exciting read.

1140
01:39:59,340 --> 01:40:06,380
to get off the ground pretty grab it amazon on the website just amazon okay yeah amazon guys i'm

1141
01:40:06,380 --> 01:40:13,260
gonna jump here it's been a great convo as always yeah i guess later dan so did you guys already

1142
01:40:13,260 --> 01:40:20,380
talk about where everybody's at with the treasury landscape right now no not really i've got a

1143
01:40:20,380 --> 01:40:27,100
question for you ben i'll put you on the spot but um you guys sequins did a buyback and i as far as

1144
01:40:27,100 --> 01:40:33,260
I understand as the first within the treasury space. I mean, MSTR had done one a while ago,

1145
01:40:33,260 --> 01:40:38,780
but it wasn't Bitcoin acquisition related, right? So they authorized a buyback. Yeah.

1146
01:40:38,780 --> 01:40:42,940
Yeah. So actually there is a company that's been doing buybacks already.

1147
01:40:43,660 --> 01:40:49,340
So Empory Digital, I think they've got about 4,000 Bitcoin. They've been buying back for

1148
01:40:49,340 --> 01:40:57,860
a couple of weeks now already, I believe. And part of this is when you're running these companies,

1149
01:40:57,860 --> 01:41:01,940
what you want to make sure you have is every tool at your disposal that you might need,

1150
01:41:02,060 --> 01:41:08,300
because you don't know when you're going to need it. And a lot of people read it. So like when we

1151
01:41:08,300 --> 01:41:14,260
launched the ATM, right, even though the stock was trading through all of the pipe selling at the time

1152
01:41:14,260 --> 01:41:16,320
and people freaked out, right?

1153
01:41:16,320 --> 01:41:18,000
Because you see an ATM get launched.

1154
01:41:18,200 --> 01:41:19,700
You know, it's not always about

1155
01:41:19,700 --> 01:41:21,760
deploying the tools immediately.

1156
01:41:22,440 --> 01:41:24,460
A lot of times it's about making sure

1157
01:41:24,460 --> 01:41:26,180
that every tool in the tool chest

1158
01:41:26,180 --> 01:41:29,560
is at your disposal all the time, right?

1159
01:41:29,580 --> 01:41:32,220
So you've got flexibility to be able to operate.

1160
01:41:33,060 --> 01:41:34,120
And so for sequins,

1161
01:41:34,660 --> 01:41:36,580
they've got that issue right now

1162
01:41:36,580 --> 01:41:39,360
where right now the stock is trading

1163
01:41:39,360 --> 01:41:41,020
below the net asset value of the Bitcoin.

1164
01:41:42,000 --> 01:41:44,140
And part of the answer can be

1165
01:41:44,140 --> 01:41:49,260
you can just do nothing right you don't have to do anything you're not forced into it and for sequins

1166
01:41:49,260 --> 01:41:53,340
they've got some benefit because they've already got leverage so part of the capital raise it

1167
01:41:53,340 --> 01:41:58,940
wasn't just a pure pipe it was a pipe plus a convert and so you know leverage on them is it

1168
01:41:58,940 --> 01:42:07,260
ranges but 49 to 50 right now so they're a very levered long play to bitcoin and when i look across

1169
01:42:07,260 --> 01:42:14,440
across this landscape. And when you listen to a lot of the feedback that comes out of the investor

1170
01:42:14,440 --> 01:42:22,280
community, there's a lot of interest in the defense of net asset value. That's a common conversation

1171
01:42:22,280 --> 01:42:28,040
because it's been viewed that it takes away your entire ability to operate.

1172
01:42:28,920 --> 01:42:33,900
And I think part of that is, is we've been a little conditioned for frequent activity.

1173
01:42:33,900 --> 01:42:40,580
like if you don't see activity every day or week it the markets decided there's no activity

1174
01:42:40,580 --> 01:42:46,240
forgetting that if you go back and you follow the journey of strategy and the build-up there were

1175
01:42:46,240 --> 01:42:51,300
almost full quarters where nothing would happen right you'd just be in a waiting period you put

1176
01:42:51,300 --> 01:42:55,720
the leverage on you want to be a levered long proxy to bitcoin when the leverage is in place

1177
01:42:55,720 --> 01:43:00,800
you can continue to wait until you've got the next move to make but now you know metrics have started

1178
01:43:00,800 --> 01:43:08,980
getting tailored to reward short-term execution, which is good because it keeps the attention

1179
01:43:08,980 --> 01:43:13,120
of management, but it can also be bad because it can incentivize you to do things that you

1180
01:43:13,120 --> 01:43:15,880
might not want the companies to do over the long-term.

1181
01:43:16,740 --> 01:43:22,080
And that's one of the things that concerns me with these is people are going to, they're

1182
01:43:22,080 --> 01:43:30,500
going to remove actions that benefit the long-term strategy for frequent actions that benefit

1183
01:43:30,500 --> 01:43:36,040
short-term trading activities. There's a reason sailors always said we're not going to make moves

1184
01:43:36,040 --> 01:43:41,720
for traders. So if you're looking for me to optimize for your options expiration, I'm not

1185
01:43:41,720 --> 01:43:46,620
going to do it. And I think that becomes important for companies that are going to endure

1186
01:43:46,620 --> 01:43:54,520
over the long period. So when I look at a company like a Sequans or an Empree Digital

1187
01:43:54,520 --> 01:44:00,280
or any of the companies that's trading below NAV, what I want them to do is I want them to put

1188
01:44:00,280 --> 01:44:07,580
the structure in place to be able to self-correct if need be. So if it turns out that you've got a

1189
01:44:07,580 --> 01:44:14,180
long period of time and you had no leverage, now you've got a real problem. So for a lot of

1190
01:44:14,180 --> 01:44:19,820
companies, and I know I'm going sideways here, but for a lot of companies, say all you did was

1191
01:44:19,820 --> 01:44:24,900
raise equity capital. That was it, right? You've basically got an ATM or an ATM-like product.

1192
01:44:24,900 --> 01:44:27,280
That's the extent of your treasury operations.

1193
01:44:27,960 --> 01:44:38,340
In those scenarios, I'd be far more concerned when a company dips well below the net asset value, because that's your only tool at that point.

1194
01:44:38,460 --> 01:44:44,580
If you have no other leverage on, you haven't had anything else authorized, all you have is the ability to raise equity.

1195
01:44:45,120 --> 01:44:53,100
Well, the market's going to sniff out that when you're below NAV, even if Bitcoin runs, if they don't see any upside, they can keep you below NAV forever.

1196
01:44:53,100 --> 01:45:00,360
if you apply leverage to the balance sheet and Bitcoin runs, you now get the outsized

1197
01:45:00,360 --> 01:45:06,540
impact of that appreciation in Bitcoin value, which is why having leverage is so important.

1198
01:45:06,740 --> 01:45:10,780
There's a reason why strategy continues to highlight that they think they're under levered,

1199
01:45:11,440 --> 01:45:15,720
right? Because they want that exposure to Bitcoin price over the long term.

1200
01:45:16,340 --> 01:45:21,020
For Saquon's, they have that, right? They're plenty levered already, so there's no real rush there.

1201
01:45:21,020 --> 01:45:26,740
but what you want is you want to be able to show your shareholder base we're ready if we need to

1202
01:45:26,740 --> 01:45:33,660
you know all okay but stocks buybacks can be very impactful so if you're a company that has cash

1203
01:45:33,660 --> 01:45:39,420
like sequins does and you have a buyback program and the market gives you a really deep discount

1204
01:45:39,420 --> 01:45:45,400
you have to define eventually what deep means because i don't think at 0.99 you should be

1205
01:45:45,400 --> 01:45:50,560
buying back stock i think that would be a knee-jerk reaction the market gives you 0.6 or 0.5

1206
01:45:50,560 --> 01:45:56,160
you should probably definitely be buying back stock right so there's a wide range here and

1207
01:45:56,160 --> 01:46:01,600
this is all in untested waters at the moment because this is the first time we've had this

1208
01:46:01,600 --> 01:46:05,120
many companies out there in the market where capital has options to rotate through these

1209
01:46:05,120 --> 01:46:09,680
companies and you're seeing all different setups on the balance sheet a lot of them right now are in

1210
01:46:09,680 --> 01:46:15,040
the scaling phase and the scaling phase is typically almost fully reliant on equity raises

1211
01:46:15,760 --> 01:46:19,760
and there's others that you know have leverage on the balance sheet they've already achieved some

1212
01:46:19,760 --> 01:46:25,100
level of scale. They're in position for a Bitcoin run. Bitcoin goes to 150 by the end of the month,

1213
01:46:25,140 --> 01:46:30,160
which I heard someone say earlier, just following normal cycle dynamics. The ones with leverage are

1214
01:46:30,160 --> 01:46:36,240
in a better position to outperform. The other thing I look at as an investor in the space

1215
01:46:36,240 --> 01:46:46,340
is I think currently people got too scared. So you see all these anomalies happen across this

1216
01:46:46,340 --> 01:46:50,720
industry. And I think it scares a lot of people out of investing in the market at what's probably

1217
01:46:50,720 --> 01:46:56,760
not financial advice, the best risk reward time to make investments that we've seen in a very long

1218
01:46:56,760 --> 01:47:02,960
time. When premiums get compressed out of a lot of these equities, that's the time because all the

1219
01:47:02,960 --> 01:47:06,480
froth has been out of Bitcoin, even though we didn't really drop that much in Bitcoin, right?

1220
01:47:06,500 --> 01:47:12,280
Went down to like 110. That was fine. But now that the froth and the excitement came out of the

1221
01:47:12,280 --> 01:47:16,800
market, you see those premiums compressed. And when you have companies that are below nav,

1222
01:47:17,500 --> 01:47:24,520
if you look at those companies and I wanted to go make a position for just exposure, right? That

1223
01:47:24,520 --> 01:47:28,900
was all I was looking for. I was going to go make an allocation to IBIT. Right now I've got options.

1224
01:47:28,960 --> 01:47:34,280
I can look at these other companies and go, if one of these companies has a structure that gives me

1225
01:47:34,280 --> 01:47:41,660
a realistic chance of just achieving one multiple to NAF, one times NAF.

1226
01:47:42,220 --> 01:47:47,480
If that's all I think it's going to achieve if Bitcoin heats up, I could take what I was

1227
01:47:47,480 --> 01:47:53,220
allocating to Bitcoin beta exposure, buy in to some of these companies at a 0.8, 0.85

1228
01:47:53,220 --> 01:47:59,900
multiple to net asset value. And if Bitcoin goes on a run and the excitement in that market just

1229
01:47:59,900 --> 01:48:05,700
brings that valuation back to just the value of the assets they actually hold already, I'll have

1230
01:48:05,700 --> 01:48:12,300
greatly outperformed Bitcoin during that period of time. So you have to look at these as opportunities

1231
01:48:12,300 --> 01:48:18,200
because these are the scary times to allocate. Most people, like I said earlier, where market

1232
01:48:18,200 --> 01:48:23,040
correction causes people to go to cash and then they won't re-enter the market until the excitement's

1233
01:48:23,040 --> 01:48:27,560
back and everyone thinks that it's going to go up forever again. That same thing's playing out here

1234
01:48:27,560 --> 01:48:31,000
in these treasury companies, but it's going to happen on a more frequent basis,

1235
01:48:31,520 --> 01:48:31,720
right?

1236
01:48:31,720 --> 01:48:34,100
Because of high voltage investing in equities.

1237
01:48:35,800 --> 01:48:37,900
Yeah, I will also say that

1238
01:48:38,600 --> 01:48:53,096
leverage also increases vol because there more uncertainty about operating business There more people that hate it There more people that are shorting your stock and yelling about it Like this doesn make any sense It like there this crank up crank up the

1239
01:48:53,096 --> 01:48:57,356
dial of what the valuation should be when you do have leverage on your balance sheet

1240
01:48:57,356 --> 01:48:58,456
because of those things.

1241
01:48:58,756 --> 01:49:02,716
And there's a big, you know, the community and there's a tribal aspect to what's going

1242
01:49:02,716 --> 01:49:06,016
on right now too, right? It's like, we've got the NFL out there and everyone's picking

1243
01:49:06,016 --> 01:49:09,216
their team and you know everyone's rooting for their team and their team's great and your team

1244
01:49:09,216 --> 01:49:12,336
must suck because their team's great you know we've got a little of that going on out there

1245
01:49:13,136 --> 01:49:19,296
and i we all saw it happen you know when met meta planet went on its major run and we were getting

1246
01:49:19,296 --> 01:49:25,216
people in the comments yelling at us that you know we were damaged we were damaging shareholders by

1247
01:49:25,216 --> 01:49:30,336
not telling them to go from micro strategy to meta planet i like meta planet my own meta planet

1248
01:49:30,336 --> 01:49:35,456
a lot more over the last couple of weeks because now it's at just such a good you know value risk

1249
01:49:35,456 --> 01:49:43,136
reward value proposition here you know but you have to detach yourself from the emotional response

1250
01:49:43,136 --> 01:49:49,296
right everyone gets excited when they're winning we do too all the time but there was a lot that

1251
01:49:49,296 --> 01:49:54,576
dove into meta planet the same way a lot dove into micro strategy last november when everything was

1252
01:49:54,576 --> 01:49:59,936
spiking and going vertical and you know instinctually these things aren't going up forever

1253
01:50:00,336 --> 01:50:09,176
And so you've got to control those emotions during these cycles and just play the math and start looking at the comparisons across the industry.

1254
01:50:09,356 --> 01:50:18,296
And if one thing's starting to greatly outperform everything else, you've got to ask yourself, is this real or is there a rotation that's going to happen here?

1255
01:50:18,296 --> 01:50:27,136
Because for a while, while these were all very low float stocks, capital could rotate from name to name to name and just keep pumping name after name after name.

1256
01:50:27,136 --> 01:50:32,616
and you started to see a lot of these names with the exact same pattern. You go look at any of

1257
01:50:32,616 --> 01:50:38,356
these charts right now, they look almost identical. So this is one of those really painful, you know,

1258
01:50:38,356 --> 01:50:44,056
they say investing's got expensive tuition. That's true. It really does. And this was one of those

1259
01:50:44,056 --> 01:50:48,616
mini cycles. It feels like a full cycle, but one of these mini cycles where people now have to

1260
01:50:49,296 --> 01:50:56,216
reevaluate and look and go, has the thesis broken for me or not? And if the thesis hasn't broken,

1261
01:50:56,216 --> 01:51:00,356
then you've got a great opportunity that probably doesn't stick around for that long if Bitcoin

1262
01:51:00,356 --> 01:51:03,996
starts ripping here because excitement starts coming back. People start looking for those

1263
01:51:03,996 --> 01:51:10,256
opportunities for the high voltage plays and the names will start to move again. But these are the

1264
01:51:10,256 --> 01:51:16,356
times you position and then you sit on your hands and you wait. This is how most of us did it with

1265
01:51:16,356 --> 01:51:21,676
strategy, right? We bought when everyone was writing obituaries and telling Saylor that he

1266
01:51:21,676 --> 01:51:25,736
gambled everything and lost. And we were all looking at it going, I don't think that's the

1267
01:51:25,736 --> 01:51:31,876
case. So you bought in and we sat for years, right? Which is why we're able to absorb all

1268
01:51:31,876 --> 01:51:38,336
these drawings. It wasn't a quick win. We didn't all just make money on a month long option

1269
01:51:38,336 --> 01:51:42,696
contract. Like this was years of sitting on an equity, right? It was the dead man's portfolio

1270
01:51:42,696 --> 01:51:48,116
approach. And I think that for the names that you see that start to separate themselves in the

1271
01:51:48,116 --> 01:51:52,476
space, there's going to be opportunities to do that, but you've got to time it right. There's

1272
01:51:52,476 --> 01:51:58,236
reality of investing where there are bad entries. The strategy can be good. The value proposition

1273
01:51:58,236 --> 01:52:03,596
can be good and you can get a bad entry. That's the emotional part of investing and controlling

1274
01:52:03,596 --> 01:52:07,436
your emotions when you're buying it because the entry matters a lot.

1275
01:52:09,436 --> 01:52:13,996
Yeah, a hundred percent. Ben, I'm sorry. I got to break your focus here.

1276
01:52:13,996 --> 01:52:18,956
Somebody posted strategy or STRC is on Robinhood. I just checked. It looks like it is available.

1277
01:52:18,956 --> 01:52:25,436
confirmed here as well i've got it pulled up yep which is which is huge and it hit an all-time high

1278
01:52:25,436 --> 01:52:32,716
in after hours so it's trading at 98.31 the robin hood pump uh the robin hood pump how many people

1279
01:52:32,716 --> 01:52:41,036
are in robin hood you might get that atm turned on soon oh my god like anybody that's like just

1280
01:52:41,036 --> 01:52:47,916
holding S&P 500 or, you know, like that wants some exposure.

1281
01:52:48,056 --> 01:52:50,916
This is just, that's a huge, I feel like this is huge.

1282
01:52:51,216 --> 01:52:54,796
The amount of capital that could go and potentially buy SDRC now,

1283
01:52:54,876 --> 01:52:57,076
like has got up drastically.

1284
01:52:57,376 --> 01:52:59,116
Where are the young people investing these days?

1285
01:52:59,116 --> 01:53:02,336
It's on Robinhood and Webull and, you know,

1286
01:53:02,436 --> 01:53:07,836
these digital platforms that we've kind of grown up with.

1287
01:53:07,836 --> 01:53:19,196
so i am super excited for their investors did meta planet no that would be oh that's gonna be

1288
01:53:19,196 --> 01:53:23,596
crazy when that happens because you ask who's on who's on robinhead well they're not really buying

1289
01:53:23,596 --> 01:53:29,516
preferred equities we're uh you know wall street but you gens yeah the most part actually you know

1290
01:53:29,516 --> 01:53:36,316
what i'm curious to get your guys's take on this i mean some of these um like kraken and galaxy have

1291
01:53:36,316 --> 01:53:38,656
of tokenized platforms now.

1292
01:53:38,656 --> 01:53:41,316
So they're doing like tokenized equities.

1293
01:53:43,736 --> 01:53:46,276
On a Solana or Ethereum blockchain,

1294
01:53:46,276 --> 01:53:50,236
what's your thought or take on having a Bitcoin treasury company

1295
01:53:50,236 --> 01:53:53,516
on a tokenized Solana or Ethereum chain?

1296
01:53:53,516 --> 01:53:57,236
It's a Bitcoin treasury company or a crypto treasury, a Bitcoin,

1297
01:53:57,436 --> 01:54:00,816
a Bitcoin treasury company like MSTR.

1298
01:54:01,936 --> 01:54:05,776
On a tokenized Solana chain.

1299
01:54:06,316 --> 01:54:07,516
Like, is that okay?

1300
01:54:08,016 --> 01:54:09,776
I don't get it.

1301
01:54:09,876 --> 01:54:11,276
It sounds shitcoinery to me.

1302
01:54:12,356 --> 01:54:17,736
It sounds shitcoinery, but it's like it's another pool of capital.

1303
01:54:18,016 --> 01:54:26,676
Like, people, it's just, it's like, imagine, imagine Dave Portnoy is on his Kraken account

1304
01:54:26,676 --> 01:54:29,876
and he's like going in and out of the shitcoin of the week.

1305
01:54:29,876 --> 01:54:36,796
and like when he enters or exits trades like he goes in and out of mstr maybe mstr is his

1306
01:54:36,796 --> 01:54:48,156
like base um and but it's tokenized and sits on the kraken platform and the shares are held by

1307
01:54:48,156 --> 01:54:53,736
kraken and it's just another pool of capital that can access like it's another pool of capital that

1308
01:54:53,736 --> 01:55:01,096
access your stock so in theory it should be really good because it's more demand that can potentially

1309
01:55:01,096 --> 01:55:06,296
buy your stuff yeah who cares what the race that you bring them it still all flows up to bitcoin

1310
01:55:07,256 --> 01:55:16,056
and that's right you're right but you're also supporting another crypto ecosystem i that came

1311
01:55:16,056 --> 01:55:21,896
up that came up this week and i was just like damn this is this really plays with uh my ethos here

1312
01:55:21,896 --> 01:55:24,656
but I feel like you can't not do it.

1313
01:55:24,776 --> 01:55:25,936
Yeah, I don't know.

1314
01:55:26,056 --> 01:55:27,036
That gives me the heebie-jeebies

1315
01:55:27,036 --> 01:55:30,876
because I won't even own a cold storage device

1316
01:55:30,876 --> 01:55:32,856
that supports anything but Bitcoin.

1317
01:55:33,276 --> 01:55:34,436
It has to be Bitcoin only.

1318
01:55:35,536 --> 01:55:36,096
You know what I mean?

1319
01:55:36,636 --> 01:55:38,236
And I refuse to trade on Coinbase anymore

1320
01:55:38,236 --> 01:55:40,136
because they're not Bitcoin only.

1321
01:55:40,296 --> 01:55:44,296
So I buy on any of the Bitcoin only exchanges.

1322
01:55:45,976 --> 01:55:48,076
You only buy guns that shoot Bitcoin bullets.

1323
01:55:48,076 --> 01:55:48,696
I get it.

1324
01:55:49,836 --> 01:55:50,736
I get it.

1325
01:55:50,736 --> 01:55:55,836
you're just full on bitcoin okay but what about the gen z that's growing up and they're like all

1326
01:55:55,836 --> 01:56:02,156
right well i want to hold all of these have fun staying poor i play with oh my goodness that

1327
01:56:02,156 --> 01:56:07,576
financial advisor is talking about he had some wallet on his phone because his friends started

1328
01:56:07,576 --> 01:56:16,356
something and sent him like a thousand sats of whatever like tokens so he even had that he had

1329
01:56:16,356 --> 01:56:21,796
idea what it was or where to get it but that was just a funny anecdote too that he had some fraction

1330
01:56:21,796 --> 01:56:27,156
of some coin that his friend was involved with on his phone he didn't know he could go buy a thousand

1331
01:56:27,156 --> 01:56:37,316
bucks of bitcoin yeah it's wild crazy okay well that's big news um looks like

1332
01:56:37,316 --> 01:56:42,436
jeffy's right now too they're not supported yet like you can't trade them yet but they're at least

1333
01:56:42,436 --> 01:56:53,956
on the platform and they weren't before are they who strife and uh strike nice okay there's

1334
01:56:53,956 --> 01:57:01,476
sdr oh yeah it literally wasn't a couple minutes ago yep sweet stuff's happening wow oh my gosh

1335
01:57:01,476 --> 01:57:14,116
that's so big oh my god fixed income is about to go so hard oh my gosh fixed income god candles

1336
01:57:14,116 --> 01:57:20,356
exciting time to go further in the risk curve yeah this is this is what this is what sailor was

1337
01:57:20,356 --> 01:57:25,796
talking about at unconference he's like okay who here holds equity and it's just like it's so easy

1338
01:57:25,796 --> 01:57:30,756
it's so easy to put money in robin hood and like gamble and the platform's just like so sexy like

1339
01:57:30,756 --> 01:57:34,916
Like the interface is amazing and it's just so easy to put money in there.

1340
01:57:35,796 --> 01:57:39,756
And even like automatic drip in there.

1341
01:57:40,116 --> 01:57:42,036
And now you have a savings,

1342
01:57:42,276 --> 01:57:44,996
like you have a savings account with an equity ticker in front of it. It's like,

1343
01:57:45,356 --> 01:57:48,876
oh my God, this is like, it's so big. This is so big.

1344
01:57:48,876 --> 01:57:50,716
Didn't they have like their, what is it?

1345
01:57:50,716 --> 01:57:54,476
Gold or whatever that was paid and you're like 5% on your cash balance.

1346
01:57:54,676 --> 01:57:56,676
Is there something? Yeah. Right.

1347
01:57:56,676 --> 01:57:57,676
Gone.

1348
01:57:57,676 --> 01:58:07,676
Yeah. Why, why, why would you hold any cash? And like, uh, same with riverhead, some sort of a

1349
01:58:07,676 --> 01:58:11,836
platform that it's like, Oh, if you hold cashier, you get, you know, X percent or something. But

1350
01:58:11,836 --> 01:58:16,076
it's like now, why, why would I even do that? I just made that product. Obviously it just makes

1351
01:58:16,076 --> 01:58:21,516
all these little savings accounts just completely obsolete. Yeah. Take your 10 and a quarter and

1352
01:58:21,516 --> 01:58:26,156
your cash and then go buy Bitcoin with that interest. The other thing, it's so easy to

1353
01:58:26,156 --> 01:58:31,516
take money off of there too it's like it's like just as easy as already one corporate holding

1354
01:58:31,516 --> 01:58:38,396
it podcast right you got a dollar and now you're now it's hood come on yeah you're not gonna i know

1355
01:58:38,396 --> 01:58:42,876
sir but true no true north got sold to coinbase for two dollars

1356
01:58:47,036 --> 01:58:53,596
yeah to be fair super easy to buy bitcoin on robin hood too just click on crypto by bitcoin

1357
01:58:53,596 --> 01:58:59,196
and you could send it out of there you could send out of there too which was not available

1358
01:58:59,196 --> 01:59:05,396
a year ago or whenever it was but if you're 10 and a quarter dividends by bitcoin send it to your

1359
01:59:05,396 --> 01:59:11,296
wallet there you go i was one of the first 10 000 people to sign up for robin hood in 2014

1360
01:59:11,296 --> 01:59:16,256
because i was super pissed off when i was making trades on e-trade in college and i had to pay

1361
01:59:16,256 --> 01:59:21,496
ten dollars a trade for it and i was just poor and i'm like ah this is so stupid why do i have

1362
01:59:21,496 --> 01:59:25,176
do this and then it was like oh robin hood we're gonna let you trade for free i was like this is

1363
01:59:25,176 --> 01:59:30,376
great uh so i signed up for it i was on the wait list for like two years before it came out and

1364
01:59:30,376 --> 01:59:39,096
it like 2016 it came out i'm like all right this is cool um but yeah anyway i'm i'm long robin hood

1365
01:59:39,096 --> 01:59:44,056
from the interface perspective and they're doing a lot of uh integration and i'm like everyone got

1366
01:59:44,056 --> 01:59:49,896
mad at them but like their options setup is really good on there it's really weird oh just the

1367
01:59:49,896 --> 01:59:52,036
The interface, like, just see everything.

1368
01:59:52,336 --> 01:59:58,716
I was stealing Soleil's brain and turning it into a computer overlord and trading.

1369
01:59:58,856 --> 02:00:01,996
I was using their APIs because it was really easy to automate it.

1370
02:00:02,436 --> 02:00:03,896
Yeah, and there's really good.

1371
02:00:03,896 --> 02:00:04,216
Oh, here we go.

1372
02:00:05,436 --> 02:00:05,916
Yeah.

1373
02:00:09,276 --> 02:00:11,136
Yeah, let's get people started here.

1374
02:00:11,136 --> 02:00:11,356
Yeah.

1375
02:00:12,756 --> 02:00:15,236
Decent and fixed equity play.

1376
02:00:16,316 --> 02:00:17,556
To move your five minutes.

1377
02:00:17,556 --> 02:00:19,376
It's a Dan Ellery special right there.

1378
02:00:19,896 --> 02:00:21,796
That's a Dan Hillary special.

1379
02:00:21,936 --> 02:00:23,956
Do not tell Dan he's going to be obsessed with that.

1380
02:00:25,276 --> 02:00:26,696
Yeah, just the arbitrage.

1381
02:00:27,656 --> 02:00:28,436
Holy cow.

1382
02:00:30,276 --> 02:00:30,796
Okay.

1383
02:00:31,336 --> 02:00:33,016
Well, we're about two hours.

1384
02:00:33,216 --> 02:00:34,756
That's all great news.

1385
02:00:34,856 --> 02:00:36,976
October started strong.

1386
02:00:37,636 --> 02:00:40,736
We've got CAMT has been removed.

1387
02:00:40,916 --> 02:00:43,176
Bitcoin's up $5,000 in a day.

1388
02:00:43,996 --> 02:00:45,256
And now stretch.

1389
02:00:45,556 --> 02:00:48,196
We're getting jacked about fixed income being on Robinhood.

1390
02:00:48,196 --> 02:00:51,036
So it's a great day to be alive.

1391
02:00:52,616 --> 02:00:53,296
All right.

1392
02:00:53,516 --> 02:00:54,096
Final thoughts.

1393
02:00:54,176 --> 02:00:54,736
We'll pass it around.

1394
02:00:54,956 --> 02:00:56,436
Maybe over to you, Soleil.

1395
02:00:56,456 --> 02:00:56,636
Yeah.

1396
02:00:56,756 --> 02:01:07,956
When Ben was talking about some people switching over to MetaPlanet, and I just thought it was kind of funny that not only did they switch, but the ATM bears swapped over to MetaPlanet too.

1397
02:01:07,956 --> 02:01:15,276
and as soon as their price dropped it was the same damn complaints that people started making

1398
02:01:15,276 --> 02:01:21,596
when you know mstr oh i gotta switch over to a faster horse and it was just like recycling all

1399
02:01:21,596 --> 02:01:27,896
the same old you know fud bear arguments let it talk to a few of the guys doing the podcast over

1400
02:01:27,896 --> 02:01:31,836
there and i go you guys have never understood us better than you do right now while everyone

1401
02:01:31,836 --> 02:01:39,436
these are the cycles you go through this is why you know it's people underestimate what it takes to

1402
02:01:39,436 --> 02:01:44,056
you know like hold shows like this together while you're just getting berated because

1403
02:01:44,056 --> 02:01:50,236
you know there's this desire for that they want your conviction to come to the level where they

1404
02:01:50,236 --> 02:01:55,796
lost theirs and they just want you to agree with where they're at that day and it's i think it's

1405
02:01:55,796 --> 02:02:01,316
frustrating to people when you just hold your conviction going look this is a really long-term

1406
02:02:01,316 --> 02:02:06,196
play for us like i don't really have anything to do i've been allocated for a while you know

1407
02:02:06,196 --> 02:02:11,236
i'll adjust once in a while but this is a this is sit on my hands time i'm not going to do anything

1408
02:02:11,236 --> 02:02:16,516
drastic going into the historically most bullish quarter for bitcoin if we get an elongated cycle

1409
02:02:16,516 --> 02:02:22,916
like this is sit and wait time it's going to fluctuate now it's painful if you chase you know

1410
02:02:22,916 --> 02:02:27,316
and there is a lot of value you know there's been expensive lessons because you have to learn

1411
02:02:27,316 --> 02:02:37,396
about all these new financing transactions that's been i think really eye-opening for people where

1412
02:02:37,396 --> 02:02:43,296
and i know that you know there's there's a lot of hatred that's come for all the pipe deals and

1413
02:02:43,296 --> 02:02:49,356
things because you started to see kind of the dynamics there of what can happen and i mean you

1414
02:02:49,356 --> 02:02:52,336
never know what's going to happen because you don't know what any individual investors can do

1415
02:02:52,336 --> 02:02:57,236
with their shares but once you have some data to work with you can start drawing conclusions and

1416
02:02:57,236 --> 02:03:00,156
find good entries on the back of all these events, right?

1417
02:03:00,156 --> 02:03:04,236
There's such a category called event-driven investing.

1418
02:03:04,236 --> 02:03:05,376
Well, this is one of them.

1419
02:03:05,376 --> 02:03:08,256
And you realize how important it is to get into the details

1420
02:03:08,256 --> 02:03:10,556
and understand the pricing of any financing.

1421
02:03:10,556 --> 02:03:13,436
That's kind of what just happened with MetaPlanet as well.

1422
02:03:13,436 --> 02:03:16,276
They did a massive financing and you saw the price kind of

1423
02:03:16,276 --> 02:03:18,616
magnet to that pricing and that financing.

1424
02:03:18,616 --> 02:03:20,276
And you've seen that a few times.

1425
02:03:20,276 --> 02:03:23,316
So these are the learnings that are going to set people up

1426
02:03:23,316 --> 02:03:26,756
to be able to find really, really good entries

1427
02:03:26,756 --> 02:03:28,936
because you've completely de-risked positions.

1428
02:03:28,936 --> 02:03:31,456
And if you believe in how those teams can execute

1429
02:03:31,456 --> 02:03:32,596
and how they can operate,

1430
02:03:33,276 --> 02:03:35,016
you position yourself for the long-term

1431
02:03:35,016 --> 02:03:36,296
and you sit on your hands

1432
02:03:36,296 --> 02:03:38,276
and throw your mouse away for a few years

1433
02:03:38,276 --> 02:03:39,536
so you can't click any buttons.

1434
02:03:41,496 --> 02:03:44,196
Yeah, you see the sailor image on your cell button.

1435
02:03:46,076 --> 02:03:49,056
Sorry, Soleil, I totally took over your final thoughts.

1436
02:03:49,356 --> 02:03:51,216
No, that was the final, final.

1437
02:03:52,636 --> 02:03:53,076
Next.

1438
02:03:53,276 --> 02:03:53,976
The final, final.

1439
02:03:54,336 --> 02:03:54,516
Yeah.

1440
02:03:54,516 --> 02:04:04,196
over to you dan um yeah just macros looking great um as we were talking the dollars in decline um

1441
02:04:04,196 --> 02:04:16,116
debt surging gold's ripping where gold goes bitcoin usually follows and a lot harder and faster um so

1442
02:04:16,152 --> 02:04:19,092
that go Ben too. I mean, make sure you find your own conviction,

1443
02:04:20,232 --> 02:04:25,392
allocate. Dan was talking about just portfolio sizing and percent allocation.

1444
02:04:25,392 --> 02:04:29,592
Make sure you're aware of that and have your eggs in whatever basket you're

1445
02:04:29,592 --> 02:04:34,192
comfortable with. And then, yeah, allocate, go touch grass. It's October.

1446
02:04:34,272 --> 02:04:35,432
We're going, we're going higher.

1447
02:04:36,912 --> 02:04:39,132
And be willing to do the research on your own.

1448
02:04:39,492 --> 02:04:44,412
There's not always going to be someone to do it and people want transparency and

1449
02:04:44,412 --> 02:04:48,792
there's been a narrative out there that there hasn't been a lot of transparency in all these

1450
02:04:48,792 --> 02:04:55,392
private financing. But the reality of that is, is that literally the legal document that everybody

1451
02:04:55,392 --> 02:05:01,652
signed that has every single term is out there on the SEC websites. You can comb through them,

1452
02:05:01,772 --> 02:05:06,932
take your time, do your research, understand the terms, and then allocate when the timing's right.

1453
02:05:06,932 --> 02:05:12,712
So that's how you create edge. Being willing to do the research is what creates the edge.

1454
02:05:12,712 --> 02:05:18,052
so if you're if you're hunting for edge and you want to find ways to outperform other people you've

1455
02:05:18,052 --> 02:05:23,152
got to be willing to go to the next step that most people won't go to and that is diving into

1456
02:05:23,152 --> 02:05:29,092
the details so don't skip that step plus you learn an absolute ton when when you do that it's well

1457
02:05:29,092 --> 02:05:34,692
worth it to go and spend the time doing that so don't just copy trade hard to read tons of followers

1458
02:05:34,692 --> 02:05:40,152
it's not how this works you shouldn't copy trade anybody there's a reason right i've said it for a

1459
02:05:40,152 --> 02:05:54,526
long time People get really mad that I don share what I holding on to but it for that exact reason because I know people will try to copy trade and your risk tolerance won be the same as mine Your financial standing may not be the

1460
02:05:54,526 --> 02:06:02,766
same as mine. For those reasons, I made the choice really early on just to stay out of that business.

1461
02:06:03,386 --> 02:06:08,006
It's fun enough to just cover all the things happening in these markets and talk about it

1462
02:06:08,006 --> 02:06:12,166
because it is a sector that I'm an investor in and I'm very bullish on for the long term.

1463
02:06:12,346 --> 02:06:18,766
but there's no shortcuts to finding the right positions for your portfolio portfolio you are

1464
02:06:18,766 --> 02:06:24,646
the portfolio manager of your portfolio and you need to treat it that way and because of that

1465
02:06:24,646 --> 02:06:29,826
that comes with doing your own research and not copy trading you can go look for ideas i love

1466
02:06:29,826 --> 02:06:35,466
watching the trades you make every week it's fun because it tells me where to look but i don't use

1467
02:06:35,466 --> 02:06:40,346
it to pick what I'm going to buy, but it can fast track where I start researching.

1468
02:06:41,306 --> 02:06:46,606
So if I follow you into something, I followed people into trades before and I've gotten smoked

1469
02:06:46,606 --> 02:06:52,446
and that was on me. I mean, nobody made me click any buttons. But it taught me a valuable lesson,

1470
02:06:52,646 --> 02:06:56,746
which was I had missed something. There was something that would have been blatantly obvious

1471
02:06:56,746 --> 02:07:02,326
if I'd gone to the next step and done that research. And ever since then, I won't buy

1472
02:07:02,326 --> 02:07:05,886
anything that I haven't gone to that level because if I'm buying something,

1473
02:07:05,886 --> 02:07:09,606
I want to sit there and be able to hold it for a very long time.

1474
02:07:10,486 --> 02:07:13,086
That's my style of investing. It's pretty boring. Yeah.

1475
02:07:13,086 --> 02:07:32,740
I do options once in a while because I like to feel something too but for the most part I just want to allocate and then go outside it nice this time of year you know i reposition in the winter when it sucks outside so do you want maybe final thoughts jeff yeah is that is that your final thought i

1476
02:07:32,740 --> 02:07:37,140
mean you're you're it's like final thought from soleil and then like ben's kind of wrapped around

1477
02:07:37,140 --> 02:07:46,580
12 40 myself ben sailor workman monologue here people like to go to sleep so if people are

1478
02:07:46,580 --> 02:07:51,380
listening we've probably got at least half of them to sleep by now so yeah jeff we didn't break 120

1479
02:07:51,380 --> 02:07:58,740
or 118 8 right now what do you guys think yeah one eight 120 by week send

1480
02:07:58,740 --> 02:08:06,100
any thoughts absolutely 120 by market open send it no send it

1481
02:08:06,100 --> 02:08:14,640
send it yeah a lot to be excited about here ben go ahead final thoughts that was it rip it you got

1482
02:08:14,640 --> 02:08:20,200
all my thoughts on that okay let these four people go to bed all right i've i've got some final

1483
02:08:20,200 --> 02:08:26,980
thoughts uh and it's kind of on what you were saying ben here the uh our the opportunity for

1484
02:08:26,980 --> 02:08:31,080
me when I look at this landscape. One, everybody here is learning

1485
02:08:31,080 --> 02:08:34,700
every single day and we don't know the answers to everything, but we're trying to figure it out.

1486
02:08:35,620 --> 02:08:38,800
And this is everything we're talking about is novel

1487
02:08:38,800 --> 02:08:42,800
and almost every single one of these episodes hurts my brain because I'm just trying to

1488
02:08:42,800 --> 02:09:03,714
figure it out in real time comprehend and then communicate it It pretty difficult But one thing that I keep coming back to and what makes this space so exciting and one of the reasons we here is because this movement is so enormously large it deafening This is like a mega trend of

1489
02:09:03,714 --> 02:09:11,654
Bitcoin disrupting money on top of a mega trend. You've got a digital Bitcoin backed credit,

1490
02:09:11,654 --> 02:09:16,994
another mega trend disrupting the largest capital pool, a $300 trillion market,

1491
02:09:17,954 --> 02:09:23,494
like the largest capital pool on the planet. So you've got a mega trend on top of a mega trend

1492
02:09:23,494 --> 02:09:32,174
disrupting the biggest pools of capital the world's ever seen. And that's huge. And it's

1493
02:09:32,174 --> 02:09:39,554
painfully large and it's gravitational pull is so heavy. I like can't focus on anything else.

1494
02:09:39,554 --> 02:09:43,414
So that's why I'm here. That's why I left the reinsurance world to come work in this space

1495
02:09:43,414 --> 02:09:52,854
is because this is the biggest opportunity probably of our lifetimes, reframing the monetary base

1496
02:09:52,854 --> 02:09:59,314
layer and the credit base layer. And I am just super excited to be here. And I hope to be here

1497
02:09:59,314 --> 02:10:06,134
for decades into the future, just making, making hay. That should be good. Let's, let's all,

1498
02:10:06,134 --> 02:10:10,214
let's all you know make a ton of money and make our lives better and make the world better

1499
02:10:10,214 --> 02:10:17,374
and uh works for me that's it that's all i got cool all right guys thanks for the time

1500
02:10:17,374 --> 02:10:20,554
we'll catch you probably next week yes see you