Captioning provided has waived
I'll tell you what's wrong before I get off the floor
Don't break me down
You wanna stay out with your fancy friends
I'm telling you it's gotta be the end
Don't break me down
No, no, no, no, no
I'll tell you what's wrong before I get off the floor
Don't let me down.
Woo!
Here we go.
Welcome back.
True North, episode 56.
Wednesday, February 18th.
And we are excited to be here.
We're going to get after it today.
We've got myself, Mason Soleil, Dan Hillary, Tim Kotzman, and I believe Green will be joining us in a bit.
We are here to jump into it and talk about everything in the world of Bitcoin and securitized
finance. And we've got a quick little episode for you tonight. Excited to be here. So today,
we are planning to talk about the strategy purchase this week and the relativity of the
purchase, where it came from, all of those things, strategy world announcement and speculation,
what's on the horizon here. And we'll talk about next week. We've got our True North event,
which is going to be a great event. We'll give you a preview of what the schedule will look like.
That will be live tomorrow.
What's the next drivers for Bitcoin?
And then talk about AI and productivity expansion.
For those of you that are new here, True North, the investment grade Bitcoin podcast, we talk
about Bitcoin.
We talk about Bitcoin backed securities.
We talked about Bitcoin treasury companies and how these things are changing over time,
broad macro landscape, and want to be at the forefront of this industry.
So without further ado, Mason, it's been a while.
And Tim, it's been a while.
Glad to have you guys back.
Maybe I'll kick it over to Tim for not financial advice.
And then we'll do a round around the horn about what everybody's thinking about.
Thanks, Jeff.
Ladies and gentlemen, what you're about to hear may be amazing, but it's not financial advice.
It's it's investment grade.
it's going to be live in Vegas next week, but it's for educational and informational purposes only.
Jeff, back to you. Perfect. We'll keep it with you, Tim. You had a big week last week
at Bitcoin Investor Week. How'd it go? Give us a lay of the land. What was it like? What was
sentiment like? How many people were there? Was it packed? What were the conversations like when
you were there? Yeah. I mean, I think the reality was it was a little lighter than it would be in a
raging bull market but i would guess my guesstimate a thousand people it was definitely
bigger than past conferences hey grain mike's here and um i mean i posted recently you can just
do things in a bear market i saw a lot of relationship building i mean ed and i were
having meetings with people that are about to launch products that have a wait list with
hundreds of millions of dollars worth of like people wanting to do things with a product that's
not ready and launched yet um you know met with a founder who was in stealth mode and launching
shortly so i mean i know it sounds obvious but i think the only thing that feels worse in my stomach
than like the depths of a bear market is like when you're trying to build something too fast
in a bull market and you just have so much FOMO and you're just like, uh, there's other people
coming to market. There's other people doing this stuff. If I, if I sleep, I'm going to be behind.
So no time to sleep, but a bears are a great time for building. And that's what everybody's
working on right now. I know I'm working around the clock. I know Dan's working around the clock,
Mason, Soleil, Mike, everybody's cooking here. Maybe I'll kick it over to Mason. What are you
thinking about? What's, uh, what's going on in your neck of the woods? Yeah. I mean, I I've been
on a little bit of a world tour over here. I was down in El Salvador for Plan B. And that was a
pretty wild conference. I feel like all of Latin America was there and some of North America as
well. And that was pretty hardcore cypherpunk libertarian, kind of traditional Bitcoin ethos.
And yeah, there's a lot going on. And that was an event largely sponsored by Tether. So it was
fascinating to see what's happening in that ecosystem. I know amongst Bitcoiners, stablecoins
are kind of controversial, but I actually had a conversation with a True North fan who works at
Tether. I can't say much more than that, but he's from England. And we were talking about Tether,
And he made a very good point that stable coins, they've now reached around 500 million people, right?
So very large product market fit for people in emerging markets or people who don't have access to bank accounts.
And I think there's 3 million people globally who don't have banks or are underbanked.
And what he said was stable coins are really, have done a huge humanitarian good that even Bitcoin has failed to fulfill because of its volatility, right?
People in emerging markets want the consistency of, you know, the stable value of a dollar.
We know it's not stable. It goes down over time.
But it appears stable, right?
Yeah, it's the digital dollar, right?
Anybody in all of these other countries, they look to the United States as the leader.
They've got the most stable currency.
You look at all of these other countries, they're experiencing rapid deflation of their
currencies, and they're looking for other things to hold.
Historically, it's kind of hard to get like, these people aren't getting US bank accounts.
But if they could get that exposure on their cell phone and anywhere in the world via USDT,
that's interesting.
That's super interesting.
And if they're able to have some stability and make sure that, you know, they could buy groceries the next week when they get paid, like that capital coming in the door instantly goes from a bank account over into something that they think is more stable.
Granted, it is going down over time, but it's more stable for their operations and their daily things.
So, yeah, fascinating.
So I was going to say, oh, go ahead.
No, sorry. I was just going to say, and then I was at plan B, which was very vibrant. And then I went to, you know, Bitcoin investor week, right? And that's a very different scene. That's the suit coiners or the bankers. And it was a pretty funny contrast, right?
the the the kind of general vibe that i got there was there was a lot of traditional finance guys
who were like reluctantly there like some some reluctant gray hair bankers who were trying to
figure out what the hell is going on and uh and and just one last antidote i was in the bathroom
i was waiting in line for the bathroom and i i heard two journalists talking and i i picked up
one of them was from business insider and they were talking and they're like well it's really
confusing because bitcoin's down like 50 but everyone's really calm like no one cares i'm like
welcome to bitcoin man this is this is what we do here yeah i i had a couple phone calls this last
week it was last friday and uh the guy i was talking to is like man you're a you're a breath
of fresh air you're you seem relatively calm and you're happy and i'm like yeah i'm not concerned
but apparently all of the other phone calls he's had people are like losing their head
yeah it's a it's a strange place to be yeah we have no nerve endings we don't feel pain anymore
what is pain french bread but but mason you're right the the stable coins things reminded me like
i'm as toxic toxic of a bitcoin maxi as anybody but to a certain extent that's almost like first
world problems you know what i mean when you've got these people that are drowning because of
inflation and they can just cling to the dollar as a lifeline you kind of can't hold it against
them you know what i mean like yeah the um to have fun you know staying poor thing just really falls
flat when when people are struggling and it's you're just doing the best they can you know
they're doing the best they can yeah it's better than their local currency exactly so i mean that
that's really that's really it anything else soleil off the top of your head since we're on you here
Yeah, I mean, what Tim was talking about reminded me of when housing was going through the roof and everybody wanted to be a realtor and flip. And then when, what was it, 2007, 2008, everything crashed. And they didn't know how to sell a house because they just thought it was easy mode.
But the people who are building in Bitcoin right now in a bear, that's like going and trying to be a realtor in 2008, 2009 after the crash.
Like you are really going to have a trial by fire and you're going to probably learn things that benefit you in the long run instead of just trying to get by on easy mode.
Bingo. Absolutely.
You got to build in a bear.
Over to you, Dan.
Yeah, I'm psyched. Things have been going really well. For me, we had a flash 500k mint last night at Buck, so we're pretty jacked up. I mean, Stretch has been trading at par.
And I think this idea that Bitcoin is going to go to zero is mostly a retail kind of hysteria, fear, sentiment situation.
Because if institutional buyers believed Bitcoin had significant downside from here, the credit quality of a lot of these products would be in real jeopardy.
Like, for example, like, let's say, you know, and I don't know the exact numbers, Jeff, but like some of the Bitcoin, I think Strive has close to a 50% amplification ratio.
Correct.
And if the expectation across the broader market was that Bitcoin was to fall another 50%, then the, you know, equity minus the liquidation preference of the preferreds would be in significant jeopardy.
And furthermore, you know, the credit quality of the preferreds would be going down.
And the market's not pricing that in to both Strive stock and Strive preferreds.
And it's not pricing it in right now to MSTR common, which is trading at the largest premium to book value it has in a long time.
And the preferreds are trading extremely well, looking, you know, stretch trading at 99 and change today after the ex-dividend date.
So clearly the market isn't that bearish on Bitcoin, I think is the takeaway here.
Yeah, that probability of zero thing is so interesting, right? You look at the banking
frameworks. So US banks subscribe to Basel III banking framework, and that effectively treats
Bitcoin as like a zero on a balance sheet. So there's a risk weighting of 1,250%,
meaning that there's 0% credit. You have zero ability as a bank to leverage against Bitcoin
holding on the balance sheet. Why does that exist? Because it's volatile. And there's some thought
that there's a probability that Bitcoin goes to zero. Now, if you think about just the general
framework of like, does that even make sense? Like, how do I compare this from fiat compared
to Bitcoin? And you look at all of the individual characteristics of fiat compared to Bitcoin
and every single characteristic of Bitcoin is better than fiat. And so you start to think about
probability of Bitcoin going to zero. Okay. What's the probability that the internet turns off?
And there's so many other things that can happen to the fiat ecosystem before the Bitcoin ecosystem.
It's interesting and ironic that the United States is on a Switzerland banking regulation platform, yet they're touting we want to be the crypto capital of the world.
I think this is a big target for 2026 that could potentially change, which would have really big second and third order effects to banks holding Bitcoin, strategy getting credit ratings, rating agencies having to take this seriously, build risk models.
And I think that's really the next frontier of Bitcoin regulation and crypto regulation in this economy.
So, I mean, Clarity Act on Calci is like 90% right now passing this year.
up from 50 a couple weeks ago pretty interesting signal yeah went vertical today uh over to you mike
what do you think about
no i think it goes back to uh what ben workman said a while back that you can't rent conviction
you have to do your own research figure out what's going on and you know nothing's changed
with all the macro that we're seeing and so the only question is you know price um and so so for
my view, it's, does the price kind of, you know, let's just say this price, price action
sucks. Sure. But the long-term trend is the same. So you just have to be unflappable with
it. And if people have been listening to us, what is this? Our 56, what's, what number
is this? 56. 56. I mean, did I think that we'd have 56 podcasts, you know, across over
a year? No, but so, so, so for my view, I'm looking forward to seeing everybody next week
in Las Vegas, talk to them in person. And I think that you just have to figure out what you're going
to do in the future. And if you didn't invest in Bitcoin or MSTR or a Bitcoin treasury company,
your question is, what isn't going to get displaced in the future? I think that's the
hardest part. If you pivot out of it, what else are you going to invest in? That's about my-
What else looks good? I had this problem when I was
in the reinsurance world post my GME investment scenario. I was like, what do I put my money into?
What else looks good? And I kept doing due diligence, due diligence, due diligence.
And I mean, Bitcoin is what I landed on. Yeah. I just posted something, I don't know,
a half hour ago. And it was showing what happened was I was on a space a while back
And then somebody had posted for CAGR, they just said that Bitcoin has retraced where it was two years ago or three years ago.
And I'm like, that's not a CAGR calculation.
So what I did was I did the CAGR each starting at the beginning of the year and the end of the calendar year with what the calculation was.
But there was something else bothering me about that.
And I'm going to paste the link into what we're talking about right now.
And it was the 50-week moving average.
And so as of right now, the 50-week moving average is $99,000.
Now, are we trading below that?
Sure.
So when you compare the same price from now and two years ago, the 50-week moving average
back then was $34,000.
So you're not comparing two things that are equal because this moving average keeps on
going.
It's setting a new floor.
So we get hung up on the price.
But the reality is that 50-week moving average keeps on getting higher.
So there, I just posted the link into the chat so people can click on it and see.
The 200-week moving average has gone up 2,780 days in a row.
Yeah.
And so if you look at the 200-week moving average, it just continues going up.
And that's why I say we've been – Jack Maulers has said this before.
It's like, oh, well, we've been in a bull market for the past 16 years.
The spot price changes.
So I think that's the only difference.
And so this doesn't shake me out at all because I've seen this happen before.
Yeah, it's funny, right?
So I was doing an analysis this week in over 200 week moving averages.
I was comparing Bitcoin, ETH, Tesla, S&P 500, QQQ, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple.
and I was just looking at the 200 week moving averages just to compare, see what, you know,
like are there instances where other assets have gone down? So ETH, for example, something around
six or 7% of the days in the last, since 2018, the 200 week moving average has gone down. So
there are periods of time where it's going up and there's periods of times where it's going down.
Bitcoin over that same horizon up into the right every single day for 2,780 days in a row. Tesla
was another example where the 200 week moving average, about five to 7% of the time actually
experienced days where it was going down. So you could say theoretically, Tesla may be more volatile
than Bitcoin based on that metric, starting to think about days of variance up and down on the
200 week moving average. And then I look back on some early times with Apple. So I was looking at
Apple from like 1990 to 2005 and looking at the 200 week moving average, obviously dotcom bubble
in there, but, uh, there was significant volatility, uh, in the 200 week moving average for Apple when
it was 14 or 15 years old. So they can very, very similar, uh, spot to where Bitcoin is today being
a, you know, 14, 15 year old asset. Um, so yeah. Interesting statistics there. Yeah. Is that why,
I think Bitcoin improves like every portfolio sharp ratio because it goes up so much more than it goes down.
It just makes everything safer, even though it's everybody thinks it's so volatile.
Yeah, everyone thinks it's volatile, but you look at the scale of returns relative, the scale of returns and the timing of the returns, and it just drifts higher.
That 200 week moving average just continuously is drifting higher.
Yeah. And so if you look at the chart, this is Tesla, which you just mentioned. And the yellow
line is the 50 and the white line is the 200. And it's for whatever, this is a weekly chart. You
can tell by it says up here in the corner that right there where it says the W. So this is a
weekly candles. And so when the yellow line drops below this, now, if this was a daily chart,
we would call this a death cross. And then this is a golden cross. But this is in 2023.
Tesla was way below its 200-week moving average, and it did it twice.
It had a double bottom here, and then it recovers back up again.
And then I'm going to switch this now to Bitcoin.
If you look at Bitcoin, the troughs aren't as long or below this 200.
This over here, these big drops that took place was in 2022.
So this was the Terra Luna collapse and then FTX in June.
So that's what that happened.
And then we were kind of like in a crypto winter because there wasn't any good news.
I think the difference where we are now, and this over here is the 50-week moving average.
We peaked at 102,000.
And now we're down to, oh, 99,000.
Because it's over, this is the, sorry, the 50-week.
It takes 50 weeks for really to reset down.
50 weeks is just about a year.
But the 200-week moving hour just continues to go up.
And this was the buying indicator that Matt Cole was talking about.
And we didn't even touch it.
So it 58 I don think we getting there But with that go ahead Yeah it probable There is a probability that we get there
It's tough. You never know you're at a bottom until you've passed it.
So it's a tricky component here.
You've got so many things on the horizon, right?
We've got and we could get into.
Oh, we lost them.
Lost Jeff.
I guess we lost Jeff.
Can you pull up Tesla again, Mike?
Because that reminded me of the pain and suffering that I went through at the end of 2022 because I was a Tesla holder back then.
And Jeff's back.
Hey, what's up, Jeff?
Yeah.
Yeah, real quick.
So, like, it just reminds me of strategy a little bit because I rode Tesla down from 400 to 100.
And over that six to nine month period, it wasn't like Tesla was worse, right?
Their cars were better.
They had more data.
They were closer to solving autonomy. They were closer to optimists. But the market was only, you know, willing to pay 25% of what it was before that. And, you know, strategy is accumulating like a like a madman. And it's, it's almost like an impossible argument to say that, you know, strategy is worth less than it was at all time highs. It doesn't make any sense.
Yeah. And I'm going to switch this to daily. So here's your typical daily chart. And maybe this
is helpful for people to read this. When the 50-day moving average drops below the 200-day
moving average, we call this a death cross. Now, when it comes back above it, that's a golden cross.
But what you see here is that you don't know that you're in the bottom. And then you'll see that the
price action because the yellow line is the 50-day moving average. Once you cross the 200-day
moving average, that's giving you the indicator that you're going there. There's a lag because
it's 50 days. It averages the previous 50 days. So you have to make a commitment. So then if you
buy in here and you're like, oh, it's going to follow through and then it doesn't, you get faked
out and then it continues going higher. So it continues going up. So this is your typical
golden, this is your death cross and then your golden cross. But if you switch it to weekly,
so you just change the chart and then you're like, it gives you much less noise. And this is on
Tesla. You could do the same thing for MSTR. And, you know, like I said, the price dropped here
I think for a variety of reasons, and we've probably talked about this all before, but I think that from my view is I think it's, you know, we're not going to stay here that long.
I really think it's going to recover.
And then when you compare it back to 2020, I mean, I mean, the stock took a mega run.
You know, when they started doing this in 2020, if you look back to there, wow.
I mean, that's pretty, you know, that was awesome.
but it pales into comparison where we are today because of the 10 for one split, right?
When they first started this.
So, I mean, that's my view.
Yeah.
The only valid reason I can see to panic sell is if you think it's going to zero.
But if Bitcoin doesn't go to zero, then strategy is not going to zero.
And if Bitcoin is not going to zero, then it's going to a million.
So that's how I think about it.
It's like so binary.
Go ahead, Mike.
You know what I was going to say?
It was kind of weird.
is that it's always doom and gloom.
It's either everything is going to zero
or everything's going to infinity.
It's either you're out of a job,
you're never going to work forever,
or you have a great job, whatever it is.
It's always like one way or the other way.
It's never like there's any middle ground going on.
Like strategy, it's like, well,
if Bitcoin goes to 8,000 and it stays there for four years,
then they'll have to refinance.
People like you see, they're going to get screwed.
And it's like, they won't be able to refinance.
What's the chance of Bitcoin going to 8,000?
What's the chance of Bitcoin going to any price and staying there for four years?
I mean, if you were to say that for any stuff, what's the chance of Tesla dropping to $100 and then staying there for four years?
Right?
That's a cool hack.
Are they going to be able to finance the rockets or the, you know?
Yeah.
It's like saying, what's the chance that you guys produce 10%, you sell 10% of your current annualized car sales next year, and then you're stuck at that number for the next three years forever?
It's a ridiculous statement.
Well, we're going to try to sell more cars.
I don't know what you're talking about.
We're going to work and try to sell more cars.
Yeah, exactly.
I mean, obviously, that is a possibility, right?
That's a risk you take as a car salesman.
There's a risk you take as a Bitcoin purchase man.
And that's the price of Bitcoin.
Yeah, exactly.
Mike, you bring up the moving averages.
I think the moving averages are interesting.
They are a lagging indicator.
So you're not going to know that things are changing until they've kind of changed.
So there is that component.
But I was doing some analysis on the on the downside and thinking about 2022 as a proxy for what a bear market might look like.
And I personally believe that the duration of this bear market is going to be shorter and the depth is going to be shorter as well, just because of the underwriting the entire situation.
Think about 2022. The price of Bitcoin went up to 30 percent below the 200 week moving average.
So if you think about the 200 week moving average today, 200 week moving average is 58,000, 30% below 58,000 would be about 40,000.
And you think about the landscape of what happened in 2022.
And we're talking like literal mayhem, financial mayhem.
Silicon Valley Bank goes bankrupt.
You've got FTX, Celsius, BlockFi collapse.
You've got a political regime that's literally looking to kill all of crypto.
interest rates go from zero to five and like everything is just complete mayhem.
And you look at where we're at now, right now, everything seems relatively stable.
I mean, there are some, some of the smaller treasury companies that might be sweating it
a little bit with their, like with margin calls associated with their, the debt on their balance
sheets. However, we're talking about peanuts relative to the entire scale of everybody else
in the marketplace or right. Like Mason, you were just looking at tether. You were just with tether
down in El Salvador. They're strong. They're incredibly strong right now. Like the tether
FUD is like out the, out the window, right? Like we've moved on to other things. It's now
called FUD and, uh, you know, whatever, whatever the flavor of the month is. And, uh, you were
just in a completely different position. You look at strategies balance sheet in the depth of the
of the 2022 bear market, their leverage ratio was 120%. Like their leverage ratio right now is 12%.
Like Bitcoin could drop another 50% here and their leverage ratio would go to 24%.
Their amplification from the preferred equities would be higher, right? They've got some dividends
that they'd have to pay, but that scale of it is just ridiculously small.
Yeah. And I think we should recognize, you know, when Fong, I think it was Fong or Saylor, when they said they have a PhD in leverage and that they've seen, you know, they've been through a thing or two.
I think that we should recognize, OK, we're in a bear market right now.
And ultimately, like this is good for a strategy.
It's it's kind of inevitable.
Bitcoin's going to have a bear market.
The preferreds were going to, you know, have to go through that.
literally like in order for them to to sell preferreds into the market bitcoin was going
to have to have some extreme volatility and have them go through it but and keep paying the like
yeah yeah the dividends and keep paying right like they have to prove themselves they have to go
through some pain and and we're experiencing that right now and i think the the demand on the other
side for it is going to be, and it might take a few years, like, I don't know. But I think the
demand on the other side, as they continue to prove themselves, the case only grows stronger.
But Mason, they're below their cost basis on their Bitcoin purchases.
It's such like an irrelevant, like, it's so ridiculous.
Hasn't every Bitcoiner been below their cost basis? Isn't that a rite of passage?
yes you like buy the top you're like always buying the top my dcas from you know the last year and a
half are below my gauze basis on those yeah 100 and with you talking about mason you know saying
that we're in a bear market um i think it was nick sabo that said that he thought the top was actually
end of 2024 and if that's the case then we actually had an all-time high in october in a
bear market, if that's true. And I, you know, I don't know if we've been in a bear market the
whole time, but just because of debasement and inflation, somehow we managed to have a Bitcoin
all time high during a bear market. I don't know. Has that ever happened?
Yeah. I think what Zaba was saying, I think he measures it through Bitcoin gold.
Exactly.
If you look at that chart, we've been in a brutal drawdown, even worse than fiat terms,
right? Yeah, we're at 13 ounces of Bitcoin. And if you look at it through like a multi-year,
it looks like we went to the top of the range and kind of rejected. And now we're at the bottom of
the range. You know, TA is whatever, but it's interesting to look at. And we're just kind of,
of consolidating here. And I think if you're a Bitcoiner, you fundamentally believe Bitcoin is
better than gold. And there's no reason that the Bitcoin market cap should be smaller than it,
or it should be larger, right? Of course, that's going to take potentially decades to happen.
just gold has a 5,000 year head start.
But I believe someday Bitcoin will get there.
And what a tremendous opportunity in gold terms.
Yeah, for sure.
Yeah, so this chart that we're looking at here.
Go ahead.
Go ahead, Dan.
No, go ahead.
Go ahead.
Yeah, this chart we're looking at here,
it's showing December 2024 peak in Bitcoin gold chart.
And since then, we're trading very near the 2022, 2023 bottoms for the Bitcoin gold ratio.
Historical bottoms.
You know, I mean, that's just pretty amazing that that's the level there.
Given the adoption that we've had and where we are, I mean, I just I would have never expected that.
So in my view, I think that we're at the bottom.
um you know it's surprising because gold finally got a run it's like we waited 20 years for it
well i didn't wait 20 years because i don't own it yeah it's uh it's hard not to look at like 2020
and think we're it seems like the setup is pretty similar to kind of like march 2020 ironically
by the way you know you know what the comical part about gold is and with bitcoiners i know
the Bitcoiners aren't a fan of gold, but one of the reasons why gold ran up is because central
banks bought it. And there's a lot of Bitcoiners that are anti-central banks buying Bitcoin. But
the only reason why the gold really got a bid is because the central banks bought it.
So all those gold bugs are like, you need the central banks to buy your bags because nobody
else was really doing it to drive the price higher. It wasn't your uncle, your crazy uncle,
Jimmy in Nebraska going to buy gold.
He wasn't the guy that caused the price of gold to spike higher.
Come on, Mike.
You don't own any gold.
I don't own any gold at all.
You're not crazy, Uncle Mike?
No, I'm not crazy.
Mike's Gen X, not a boomer.
So he doesn't own gold.
I'm not a boomer.
I'm Gen X.
So, Tim, you keep on switching hats.
What's going on there?
I'm on Team Bitcoin.
You're on Team Bitcoin.
Yeah.
The relentless pursuit.
Yeah, look.
like i think the ms the bitcoin gold ratio is interesting right like remind me what percentage
of total assets is gold i think it's um you know single digits right what of what gold's total
assets worldwide wealth well yeah like gold's 35 trillion market cap yeah out of yeah gold's 35
yeah it's debatable so so regardless right like let's just assume it's
single percentages four or five percent so four percent four percent of gold so like i think that
the bitcoin gold ratio is very difficult to say like that should trend upwards over time at all
times right because like gold is still kind of a marginal portion of all worldwide wealth so if
you're benchmarking two assets that make up small portions of total household wealth it's difficult
like at that point you're kind of pair trading right whereas if you look at bitcoin adoption
and Bitcoin structural increase in price relative to fiat,
I do think that's more robust.
I want to believe that there's a world in which
the Bitcoin gold ratio really, really matters
over long periods of time.
But I just don't think it can
because of how insignificant gold is
actually relative to total wealth.
Maybe a Bitcoin real estate ratio
would be an interesting chart as well.
So that's my point.
There's just so much noise.
yeah gold's gold's highly volatile relative to total assets in the world and it's it's actually
eating assets right now so don't don't don't take gold or bitcoin underperformance relative to gold
as some sign that it's like failing it just means gold's outperforming like that's that's the
pointer is there any asset that's not manipulated that you can compare bitcoin to i don't think so
right? Like everything is...
You could say like M2
adjusted
fiat
is my opinion the best baseline
for like Bitcoin growth.
Yeah.
Like an M2 comparison? Like M2 adjusted?
Yeah, you
just take like it's fiat price, but then
over time you adjust the
fiat price
relative to M2 money supply growth,
right? So like
an inflation adjusted Bitcoin price.
this is essentially what you do but you use your own inflation and distant index which is m2 instead
of cpi yeah that makes sense yeah and that you could argue that's kind of the cost of capital too
right because like i'm on me so i could show that right now so exactly what yeah yes give me one
second i'll just i'll pull it up and i'll just noodle before you get in there like um i mean if
if the cost of capital of the S&P is like sub 10% over the past 20 years-ish, right? Then you've
got M2 at like 7-ish percent. So there are real parallels there. Like M2, money supply growth is
kind of the cost of capital. So you're subtracting out the cost of capital and Bitcoin's performance
over the cost of capital. I think that's a pretty reasonable index. Yeah. So the easy way to do it
in trading view, in the top, I just typed in BTCUSD. So I'm not sure which, maybe this is
probably bit stamp. And then the, cause you get a longer time horizon with it. And then, and then
the, and, and what it uses for the denominator right there is M2 from, from, from the federal
reserve. So this adjusts for the money supply increasing. And it's kind of amazing that it
basically just about touched the 200 week moving average. We're back to exactly, you know, you know,
money supply adjusted there. The crazy part was, you know, I thought that when they did all this
money printing that happened during COVID in 2020, I thought we would have rocketed up to a price
of Bitcoin of well above 100,000 because we basically doubled, we're at whatever, almost
38.7 trillion is where we are today. And we were at $20 trillion of US debt. That's not the same as
money supply. But I would have thought that given the money printing, that we would have just
rocketed way higher and that money just did not flow into Bitcoin for whatever reason in the last
cycle. But it looks like in this cycle, you know, it continues going up. So adjusted for money supply,
Bitcoin, it's amazing how it just tagged that metric. Well, actually it did.
For some reason on the averages, it doesn't show it, even though you see it on the screen,
it still shows it as zero, but it looks like it definitely touched the 200 week moving average.
so yeah but one one thing i find interesting is trying to unpack you know what why are we here
like what got us here right everything's going well uh everything's really positive and then
people are speculating is it quantum fud is it you know what what's happened over the last couple
of weeks and i think there are some of the people that i follow i mean jeff park and what what's
going or the folks that are talking at NYDIG think that there's a over the last couple of weeks with
the run up in commodities prices and the correlation between Bitcoin and other equities,
there was a high correlation between a bunch of other equities and multi strategy funds.
And when there's high correlation, you don't anticipate high correlation. You anticipate
these instruments to move in a different fashion. So when there is high correlation,
the default move in high correlation situations is to delever and de-risk.
So with the increase in commodities prices, these multi-strat funds were
deleveraging their balance sheets because of the correlation with software and AI and all these
other things that are going on. And everybody's trying to wrap their heads around it. What happened?
We were at 90K where we had 126K 90 days ago. We were at an all-time high 90 days ago.
what's happened in the last nine days. From a structural perspective, nothing has changed with
Bitcoin. Nothing. If anything, things are more positive today than they were 90 days ago.
So yeah, it's an interesting landscape. I think one other thing, and I just saw this right before
I came on here, I'm going to share my screen. And Dan, you reminded me of it is the like,
like pricing Bitcoin and gold and thinking about the relativity of gold and to global total assets.
And this kind of brings me back to this, like risk is mispriced globally, everywhere, across all
assets, equities, bonds, everywhere. And I saw this right before I jumped on here, ironically,
from Financial Times who doesn't care about Bitcoin or the Bitcoin-backed equity instruments.
Blue Owl, which is a private credit fund, has permanently halted redemptions at private
credit fund aimed at retail investors. Ouch. We're talking private. Okay. So this is private
credit. So folks that retail investors that are interested in getting like 8, 9, 10% yield,
They gave their money to Blue Owl for a private credit instrument.
And now it's stuck there and they can no longer get the money out and they're not getting paid the yield.
And that looks a bit sketchy relative to a digital credit instrument that's backed by 3x a pile of Bitcoin.
You can calculate the risk 24-7, 365, fully liquid in a brokerage account.
and you can move that money in and out whenever you want based on liquidity profiles.
So it just fascinating to see this stuff It like this announcement came as part of a billion sale of credit assets across three of its funds So Blue Owl has had to liquidate funds and exposure and they halting withdrawals from retail investors You hate to see that right Like it doesn exist with digital credit
Jeff, what's really interesting here, and this might be a little bit of like an Overton window shift.
If you said to someone, you know, maybe two years ago, would you rather, and this is before the preferreds, of course,
but would you rather have a credit instrument backed by SaaS cash flows or backed by Bitcoin?
On average, I personally believe the people would pick the SaaS cash flows.
That's something that they understand, right?
And they're like, oh, software, right?
Like high margin business growth, so on and so forth.
But, you know, what we've seen in the equity markets recently with SaaS, what was it?
300 billion wiped out in market cap.
So insane, insane margin or multiple compression, right?
And a lot of these private credit instruments, they're not all backed by SaaS companies, but they're all companies that can theoretically be disruptive, right?
They have a moat that they have to maintain.
They have some competitive scarcity that they need to, they have to compete.
Whereas Bitcoin, you don't have to compete, right?
It's just mathematical scarcity.
And it's scalable.
like all of these like i think that's something that kind of blew me away about this blue owl
thing like if i were blue owl they probably have no idea this digital credit stuff is happening
probably zero but if they did i would be trembling in my boots
i would i would be wanting to figure out how to like what is going on with these high yield
instruments over here they're what do you mean they're liquid i can hold them in a brokerage
account all right they're backed by three x you know like transparent they're transparent and these
products look like crap compared to something that you can literally observe all the time
right completely different hey jeff i got a quick question on the strategy balance sheet
how much is goodwill zero they don't carry any goodwill on the brown sheet it's zero zero you
know my new term for anybody when i say to them is i'll be like i'll ask them by the way how much
goodwill does that company carry on its balance sheet? Because goodwill means somebody has appraised
a value for something that means zero. Yeah. Right? Yeah. It's so funny. I mean, intangible
assets are another one on there. Those are like logos. You can value your logo as an intangible
asset. And then accounts receivable is another one. Accounts receivable are not as certain as a
a lot of people think. And that's a number that just kind of constantly gets massaged if you're
a company that's bringing in cash flow because you've got more accounts receivable the next
quarter than you did the last quarter. And what doesn't actually come through can kind of get
swept under the rug and you don't actually see it. So there's several accounting things that you
don't really see in quarterly financial statements that are opaque compared to an instrument that
trade that trades 24, 7, 365. Oh my God. Somebody, somebody commented on my, uh, on one of my posts
that were like, you know, Bitcoin, Bitcoin's dying and, uh, there's no demand. And my response was
like, Bitcoin's traded $36 billion today. It's volume was greater than, was like 20% greater
than Nvidia, more than double Apple, right? Bitcoin is more, had more volume than all of
publicly traded securities like individually. It is more liquid than everything. That's interesting.
It continues to be interesting. You look at strategy stock, right? They're the 250th largest
stock, yet they're consistently top 25 largest publicly traded equity daily. Why? Because it's
observable, right? You can calculate it. There's infinite trading pairs. MSTR is a proxy, is like
like a leveraged proxy on Bitcoin. Now you can take different perspectives and the computers
are constantly calculating risk and correlation and, you know, how it's, how it operates everywhere
within the market. So. Hey, Jeff, I love your post about FYI. FDR has a higher enterprise value than
Solana. Yeah, that, that was a bit of a surprise to me. Think about back to 2022, like bear market
in 2022. I don't think that was the case. I don't think MSDR had a higher enterprise value than
Solana. I think Solana was still like a, I don't know, $10 billion deal and strategy would hit what,
a billion and a half in the bear market in 2022. So the, I didn't know that. And it hits me as,
I mean, you hear the talking heads on CNBC talking about Ethereum and back in the day,
at least Solana as though it's like the next Bitcoin. And so to see this comparison now,
it's like, wait, question number one, what?
Yeah, yeah.
Well, it's what's a better,
what has a larger total addressable market?
MSTR or Solana?
I don't know.
Yeah, stable coins backwards, right?
Yeah, like I think that the demand,
the demand for the preferred instruments is massive.
The total addressable market for the preferred instruments
is astronomical, right?
It's huge.
I don't know, 100 trillion, 200 trillion.
Yeah, I think the capital assets
have way more value over time
than these like infrastructure layers
because infrastructure layers
are extremely lightweight
and pretty much interchangeable.
Like it's tech, right?
It's tech built on code.
And there is some like network effects to it.
So like I don't completely discount that.
But it doesn't matter if the SDRC
is trading on the NASDAQ,
you know, on an exchange
somewhere else 24-7 on Robinhood on their own, you know, whatever, internal trading on Ethereum,
like buck trades on Solana backed by the asset. Like ultimately the capital network backed by
energy is the Bitcoin. And then the US, like the enforcement comes from the SEC in terms of creating
these securitized Bitcoin products, right? So SDRC being that. So you need the capital,
You need the regulation to create the two forms of actual money.
And then the infrastructure by which it trades just has to be kind of like secure.
But it doesn't really matter how that happens, in my opinion.
Yeah.
Jeff.
And I think we're going to make them.
No, sorry.
Can you – I shared my screen.
Can we talk about this?
This has to do with the recent buy.
Is there any way we could zoom in?
Oh, yeah.
There we go.
Yeah.
So I created this with Claude.
And I was thinking about two things.
I was thinking about, all right, strategy is relentlessly accumulating Bitcoin, right, with over 700,000 Bitcoin.
That's the orange line.
And then you have the Bitcoin left to be mined.
That's going down daily by 450 coins a day, right?
And in my mind, I see these two lines and they're going to converge. So I asked Claude to create this for me. And I think it's pretty staggering. And when you project it out, I think it's going to be, you know, depending on market conditions or depending on how much equity they can sell, I think this would be around 2028, 2029, where these two converge and strategy will have more Bitcoin.
than the release schedule for the rest of history.
Till 2140.
Yeah, 2140.
And another really interesting thing here,
I didn't realize we're 20 days from less than a million Bitcoin to be mined.
That's going to happen in 20 days.
We should throw a party.
Yeah.
Yeah. Wow. I'm just just thinking here. I mean, so we've got the we've got the having is 450 Bitcoin a day. Prior to that, it was 900 Bitcoin. People are saying like the new supply doesn't matter anymore. And I think that's bullshit because it really like it's still 450 Bitcoin at the end of the day. Right. Like what's 450 Bitcoin multiplied by what's today's price? 65,000. That's $29 million of new supply that's hitting the market every single day.
And we know that the miners generally are selling this supply so they can utilize the capital for new infrastructure,
you know, OPEX, CapEx, you know, whatever it may be.
And you think back to last cycle, it was 900 Bitcoin a day times 365 days, four years.
1.3 million Bitcoin came out newly minted last cycle.
and let's just say an average price of $40,000.
That's $52 billion of capital that needs to get eaten up of new supply
that happened last cycle.
And it's probably a bit higher this cycle.
So that's still serious capital that needs to get eaten up.
That's assuming no historical holders are exiting Bitcoin
and moving on to other things.
It's a lot of capital.
also what's what's crazy um when you realize how much bitcoin this is right and and you kind of
look at any projection of how bitcoin is going to be whether it's the power law and then you
look at mstr's market cap mstr is still so small like nvidia trades in mstr every like every day
every day, just like a boom, boom, like, like it's nothing like a few percent.
Yeah. That relativity is so important. The, the, uh, oh, shoot Mason, I got rid of the wrong
screen here. I want to get rid of that one. Yeah. That relativity is important. Yeah. You think
about size and scale. Like why does it, why does Nvidia trade like that? What, why do people hold
Nvidia? Why do people hold equity? Why do people hold any of these stocks? They don't pay a dividend.
right this has been kind of my argument from the very beginning like they why do you why back in
2021 when i was trying to figure out like where to park my money i you know ended up getting a house
and uh and then i was like okay i need to find a place to park my money i needed to store value
i was making money and i wanted to store it and i wanted to save it for later and so i was thinking
okay, store of value, inherently thinking about risks of like mag seven, like, okay,
what can happen here with these companies? Like, why do people hold these companies? Like
Apple, for example, I used to have a coworker that told me, oh, I, every time I get a paycheck,
I just put, you know, 8% of it into Apple because, you know, he pulled up his iPhone. He was like,
I just treat it as a savings account. That's how he, that was how he invested. And that was his
mindset and like i'm sure he still does it to this day and it just didn't feel right to me and
so you think about okay store value bitcoin is actually scarce apple's not scarce uh
bitcoin can likely withstand a company like apple over time and it trades at 1xpe like there's no
there's no multiple bitcoin doesn't trade in a multiple it is what it is it's commodity
and then you think about a company holding that commodity what's that company worth like how do
you value this company like and mike we talk we talk about this all the time like how do you value
a store of value equity that's got more store of value a more of the highest value store of value
than any other company on the planet how do you value that it's tricky super tricky
i think it's higher i think it's a lot higher i think it's higher than everything else i think it's
It's way higher than everything else and likely an order of magnitude, maybe not order of magnitude, but like there's going to be a gap.
Like right now, there's a gap between NVIDIA and I think the next closest is Apple.
I think it's like four and a half trillion versus three point eight trillion.
But I think there should be theoretically a gap even higher between, in my opinion, MSTR and whatever the highest is because of that store of value nature and the trend of the US dollar over time.
And thinking about that possibility for disruption, you know, with your buddy buying Apple, it's like, okay, they sell phones or they make phones.
Well, they actually don't make phones.
They write the code that's going to go onto the phones and then they send those.
I can't remember which podcast I was watching, but they were like, no, they actually send that to someone else and somebody else makes the phones.
Like somebody makes that in China somewhere.
And so if your whole business model is on the software that goes onto the hardware, that can be disrupted and that is being disrupted.
You know, like all of software is getting disrupted. People are vibe coding, you know, apps.
So that, you know, the possibility for these companies for disruption, I think, is very high.
Yeah, it's funny. I've seen a lot of feedback from people that have had these like high level coding jobs.
and they're like, oh, you know, a vibe.
They're just talking shit about vibe coding and they're like, oh,
somebody vibe coding isn't going to take over some of these software things.
Like it's you still need some technical capability.
And my response to that is like, we're just this thing is just
we're just getting started for now.
Like, yeah, well, this is just getting started like it is on.
It is on a trajectory to get way better.
Think about what we know of the vibe coding software now
and where it's actually where it's truly at.
it's true like it's the worst it'll ever be right we don't know like the people that are actually at
the forefront of what these models are doing like we're probably actually six months behind
jeff i i had a i had a fun um like mental exercise because if you've been using ai from from the
beginnings it's like chat gbt1 you're able to do this so i want you to imagine the ai as um
um its capability imagine it as a person or a group of people right so like I think when
when chat gbt first came out like it was like a fast high schooler it was like a high schooler
that could type really fast and then you know the next model was maybe like a a college student or
two that that could you know write a paper and imagine them at like full speed like 3x
spits out a paper. And now with, with, uh, Sonnet or, or Opus 4.6, it's like, I have like a,
a team of 10 brilliant engineers, software engineers, right. And they're going so fast.
And if you think about like, what would it cost to, to hire 10 brilliant software engineers
to, you know, at your command, write code for you and do it very fast. First of all,
it's not even feasible, but secondly, it's way more than $20 a month.
Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. We've, we, let's strive. We've spent like, I don't know,
four or $500 of credits on these like models, creating dashboards and stuff. And it's just
Like the the output, the value of the output that we've gotten out of it is just.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars, like
might maybe even more like I'm just maybe millions.
I'm just imagining like how like four years ago, the amount of time it would have taken
to get the output that we that like we're able to get in a week or a day.
I've got my my analyst working on this stuff and he comes back to me later in the day.
He's like, oh, it's done.
Check it out.
And I'm just consistently blown away, like consistently.
And yeah, I mean, my old my old company, we used to have these
like pretty sophisticated reinsurance models where we'd go in,
we take an entire insurance company's portfolio, like all of the data
of all of the policyholders, all of the claims, and we go shove it into this computer,
this external computer that sat on a cloud drive, and we'd run that portfolio
through a catastrophe simulations like ten thousand simulations
of hurricanes running over Florida and Georgia and all this stuff.
And then we take that output, which would be a massive file
of all these different perils running, running all this information.
And then we take that output huge file and we shove it into this other piece of software
and we'd be able to create structured tranches on on that data
and then identify what the what the output is outside of it.
So you'd see like, OK, your expected loss on each one of these tranches is X.
And you can see how that changes depending on how you structure the reinsurance.
That platform took a decade to build and probably $25 million of employee work, five or seven people dedicated to it for a decade.
It took forever.
And the type of stuff that we're building, we could do it in a week.
And it's insane.
The level of progress is insane.
And even just thinking about the catastrophe models, like we used to license this model as RMS or AIR, VerRisk.
These are publicly traded companies.
VerRisk is a publicly traded company.
They have these models that have data and information where you can run these catastrophe simulations.
I think our company paid, oh man, we probably paid like $2.5 million to $5 million a year just to license that model.
And like I'm imagining somebody could make that.
Yes. So I'm just going to make it.
I'm just going to make it and launch it.
And just like then it's then it's there.
It's like, oh, here's open source RMS.
Like here's open source AIR.
And like the incentive is there.
Like it's just not very.
I don't think it's very difficult to do something like that.
And that's I mean, that's going to completely change how all of
companies interact uh the computers are going to demand and this is something dan i think you brought
up a couple weeks ago it's like people are going to turn into idea guys like the people that are
just doers like you're gone senior idea guy junior idea guy idea analyst you know like you're paid to
have new ideas that's it yeah yeah i think i think the the past few weeks month to me uh you know
jeff you always say risk is misprice and i i think the the market is beginning to appreciate that with
you know the speed of disruption from ai in certain sectors uh but even sectors that you
You wouldn't think of some financials got hit.
Trucking got hit, right?
From, you know, the potential of Tesla doing self-driving.
But there are –
Sorry, trucking got hit by a truck.
That's all.
Yeah.
There's so much capital.
There's so much resources, wealth, value that is reliant on business models that may not
work in the future.
And a lot of those companies if I them the easiest thing for them to do is just come into Bitcoin right you can take whatever cash they have and bitcoin is shelter they they in the storm in in the battle of like the competitive
uh marketplace for providing value and if they have any form of capital the way that they could
ride this out and actually prosper from the AI productivity is by going into Bitcoin and maybe
like laying low and figuring out what is next. So I could see that as a potential adoption wave
in the next few years. I'm just going to share my screen here. Okay, let's explore it, right?
so outside of the s p 500 there are thousands of companies in the market right outside of the s p
500 you're looking at still like 16 billion dollar companies these are legit companies right you're
talking to hyatt hotels etc but how many no name how many of these no-name companies like f5
right it was like f5 is like a security uh like a security company that i used to use f5 to like
get on my computer and citrix web apps or something like that and like okay that's a 15 billion dollar
company i i i don't i don't know what they're doing like does that get eviscerated what's their
balance sheet look like are they strong like that are they disrupted and you start to look at some
of these companies and like who are these these are these are several publicly traded
like decently large companies 15 billion dollars is nothing to slouch out i mean that's probably
anywhere from 200 to you know thousands of employees where like do these things just get
eviscerated i have no idea reinsurance group of america that's funny transunion mason and i are
working on our true north presentation i just want to like allude to it so yeah we compare the time
to 100 million arr across companies over history and the first company the fastest company 10 years
ago to 100 million ARR with Salesforce. And it took about, Mason, what was it? It was like five
years, something like that, right? It was quite a while. And now, right now, the fast company to
100 million ARR is lovable in eight months. And we overlay that with the average lifespan of the
S&P 500 corporation. And that has dropped from in 1964 to 33 years to a projected 12-year average
lifespan in 2027. 12-year
lifespan for S&P 500 company?
Yeah. So when you think about
these things, this is
the data behind disruption.
So yeah, you can't bet any of these things will be around.
Salesforce was 10 years,
not five. 10 years.
Thanks, Mason.
So lifespan
being included in the S&P
500 or literally dying?
Gone? No longer
exists anymore?
or like it's listed on the s&p so okay listed on the s&p so if they fall out of the index
then yeah technically okay so let's look at falling out of the index means they didn't perform
right and lovable is literally a no code ai app builder
no code which its business model is probably eviscerated
probably and you you look at okay so this is page four let's go to page five which is uh
company 400 through 500 and you think about like how this may change over time so this is
to your point like saying the date of disruption how many of these are going to turn over why would
they turn over um and which ones are ripe for disruption how many companies are going to get
disrupted in the middle of their IPO? Just, hey, IPO and their business has already been disrupted
and replaced. Oh, man. It's probably going to be pretty rough for IPOs out there unless
you're, I think you got to get in before open AI, like whenever open AI
does their IPO. I mean, that's going to probably be, in my opinion, the top of whatever this AI
rush is because it's going to be so big like it's going to be the biggest IPO out there I don't know
if I want to follow that like that's going to take that's going to take so much capital out of the
ecosystem right this IPO coming like this company coming public will take so much so much capital
out of the ecosystem it's going to be so long before a company that's that large goes through
another IPO. Like what's the next one? Well, SpaceX is an IPO. Apparently. Or is that going
to get rolled into, right? XAI goes into SpaceX, SpaceX goes into Tesla. That's like every Tesla
holder's wet dream, right? It's like if you just become the mega conglomerate of everything Elon
Musk, it's like an Elon ETF. Right? A boring company gets rolled in, Neuralink gets rolled
in it's the elon etf it's like berkshire um yeah i mean you look at these companies like the top the
the lowest so ranked from 400 to 500 of top publicly traded companies and i mean
yeah half of these can probably just flop out of there blue owl look blue owl is probably in
the S&P 500 and that was the company we just brought up literally permanently halting redemptions
at private credit fund aimed at retail investors. Then you look at the strategy is a $40 billion
company with these perpetual preferred equity instruments that are publicly traded and they
got two and a half years of dividend payable in cash and they're not included in this.
Crazy. Tons of people's retirements are just plowing into these companies.
And they just don't even know. By default because it's the S&P 500.
Dick's Sporting Goods. I went there this weekend.
I was talking to Grant earlier today.
And yeah, SGRC is going to like, you know how we talk about Bitcoin as a binary outcome?
I mean, SGRC is also a binary outcome because they have enough dividend payments right now to cover kind of the majority of the human lifespan, especially if Bitcoin goes up a little bit.
And so ultimately, you know, these products are money good for our lifetimes.
and people are going to want to extract the high yield out of them for the foreseeable future.
And so every year the dividends continue to get paid, considering SDRC has only been around for
whatever it is, six months or so, like they get stronger. The credit quality of an instrument,
you know, I don't actually think it's the right framework for assessing the credit quality of
the instrument, but it's how people are naturally bred to understand risk, is that every year the
dividends get paid, it's more likely that the next year the dividend will get paid again in people's
lines. And that's how big institutions even work, unfortunately. It's that they'll see a three-year
track record, a four-year track record, a five-year track record, a six-year track record. I was
talking to Dylan and Claire about this today. And at that period of time, one, what's the interest
rate on stretch? I think it's a lot lower than it is now. And two, how big is stretch? And considering
it's stable and fully liquid, there's no other products in the market that you can swap in and
out of with millions and millions of dollars liquidity and you kind of bet on your principle
being stable amidst changing interest rate market conditions so you know nothing nothing really beats
that other than a money market fund right now capital will flow into serc there's no doubt
capital will flow into serc so here's here's something interesting this is uh this is i just
pulled up Twilio to just do a little balance sheet analysis here. So Twilio is what? They're a $16.9
billion company. The earnings for 2025, they made $110 million. A couple of years ago in 2022,
they lost a billion dollars. They have, what is this? They have about technically $7.8 billion
dollars in net assets so that's assets minus liabilities so let's go double check it and grain
you're gonna love this so you've got 9 billion in assets but really 5.2 billion of that 9.7 billion
is goodwill so really it's what 4.5 billion dollars of assets and
and 613 million of accounts receivable.
And so you look at that ratio.
I mean, is that disruptible?
Probably.
You know, I think that's where we,
the consensus right now from TradFi
is that companies are valued on cashflow.
So goodwill, which is just,
goodwill is just goodwill.
I mean, basically, it's a value of zero that we're ascribing a value to it.
And they just don't use that when they determine the credit worthiness of a company.
They just base it on the cash flows.
And once that shifts, people will be like, oh, there's a company that had four or five
or $10 billion of goodwill.
Why did we just view that as a valuation?
It was because of the cash flow.
And eventually, this is going to change.
and and i think i think for us is that when it does change you know i would tell us you guys we
should not gloat that much when it happens because we'll be like well we told you so
and and we're gonna wake up one day and and it's gonna happen so um maybe we should do the uh
predictions for strategy world coming up uh yeah real quick let's talk about the true north event
so we've got true north event coming up next week that will be on monday february 23rd we'd love to
see people there. We've got a quick schedule. Let's run through this. We'll make this bigger
so everybody can see it. Maybe we'll put it here. Boom. Okay. Event schedule. So we're
going to have intro and groundwork with the True North team. Dan and Mason, they've alluded
to this. They've got a presentation. They've called it the gravity trade. I've already seen
it. It looks great. Look forward to seeing that. Then there will be a break. And then
we'll get into our segments that we're going to be speaking with industry experts. We've got a
macro panel where James Lavish and Pierre Richard will be on the macro panel. Dan will be interviewing
them and participating in part of that conversation. Next one, digital credit permeating traditional
finance. So myself and Matt Gannon from Barclays. So we have a bulge bracket bank that will be
involved in this. And then I think we are going to have one more guest on that one as well. We're
going to be talking about from Barclays perspective, from a banking perspective, how is this
industry evolving? How do the conversations go? What's happening on that side? Next, Bitcoin at
scale. We've got a grain of salt, Ben Workman. We've got somebody else from the industry that
we're working on there to talk about what's happening just generally with how do you buy
hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin? Where does it go? How do you interact with
the trading partners? Those types of things. The next section on where's the Bitcoin Lebowski?
Let's talk to Anchorage Digital and BitGo.
So we've got Manuel Andriani and Mike Belshi from two custodians.
We can talk about trading.
We can talk about custody.
How does institutional grade custody work?
BitGo is a publicly traded company.
And that is evolving.
It's a very fascinating conversation.
And then lastly, Bull, an institutional case for Amplified Bitcoin.
And it'll be Matt Hogan and Matt Cole talking about,
let's get everybody bulled up on Amplified Bitcoin and digital credit and the future of this
landscape. So it will be a ton of fun. I look forward to seeing everybody there. If you do not
have tickets yet, there are still some tickets available. I think there are 25 tickets available.
Check it out. It's in the chat. Be part of the True North side event experience.
In the evening, we also have an event from 8 to 11 p.m. We've got a party.
There will be food. There will be drinks and networking with everybody that's attended the
event, please check it out. And if you've got any questions, feel free to reach out and we are,
we're happy to chat right on. That's all I've got. Maybe over to you,
grain strategy world. What are we thinking? Oh, he's gone to Boston.
I think he wanted to do predictions. Prediction. I mean, I'm, I'm thinking, uh,
they announced the Canadian one's going to be struck, which, you know, Canada rhymes with
Canuck.
So it's got to be STRU.
Strike and struck.
Yes.
So strategy world is from,
what is this?
It's from Tuesday.
There's an opening ceremony on Monday and then it's from Tuesday through
Thursday.
I think most of the events are Tuesday and Wednesday.
There is a big keynote on Tuesday from Fong.
And then Michael Saylor comes in to talk about digital credit at 1 PM.
There are several other things that are happening throughout the day. So bank's perspective of
investing in digital credit. There is executive panels from TD Ameritrade. Bitcoin is entering
the capital markets era. Very interesting equity analyst roundtable. So talking about
strategy, TD Ameritrade benchmark. It'll be a very interesting perspectives all the way around.
Mike, do you have some predictions? What do you think is happening here?
Um, what I think is happening, I think they're going to announce some new products and they had made the allusion to, I stepped away for a second, you know, whether it's the Canadian prefs or they're going to do something different with a pref product there.
I think they're also going to announce a new form of guidance in terms of the ATMs and the amount left on it.
I think that if they don't tell us what the ATMs will be, they'll say, look, in the future, whatever, 30, 60, 90 days, we will do some type of new offering.
And I think that's what we'll hear about it.
So we heard about it previously.
I think there'll definitely be slides on that.
And so I'm looking forward to hearing that, especially the guidance on the ATMs.
I'm skeptical that they'll put out any guidance on the ATMs.
I mean, they put out guidance on stretch, which makes sense.
Maybe guidance on the other prefs.
I would be interested to see that.
I mean, they haven't raised any capital on the other preferred equities in quite a while.
They haven't.
And when I mean guidance, it's like when they first announced the $21 billion plan and then the follow-up $21 billion plan, what I think is they're going to have a new plan.
I don't know how many.
They're going to pick a dollar amount and they're going to tell us what that is.
and i think that you know they they have not told us um they've given us some guidance the low medium
high in the last deck that we saw but i think they're going to give us more guidance about
what their what their dollar amounts are as opposed to just a percentage that's an idea
and that makes sense to me because aren't they going to blow through their stretch atm
before you know it well they raised 78 million last week let's take a peek at that so they raised
78 million last week.
This is
last week's
8K.
So they
raised 78 million. There's 3.5
billion left.
So, I mean, that could last quite a while.
Just kind of depends on how much demand
increases, right? If the price of Bitcoin goes
higher, does stretch demand increase?
I don't know.
Does demand for
amplified Bitcoin increase?
it probably does right like that would be rational like if the if the capital stack doubles
and this thing is you know five seven x over collateralized like why would i not get 12 percent
you know 11 percent yield whatever that number is i would suspect the demand goes higher
yeah but if you think about you know three and a half billion let's assume it's a hundred million
dollars a week that only lasts for 35 weeks if you if you chop it down to you know to 50 million
then it's 70 weeks so it's a little bit over a year and a half um we'll see if they just leave
it the way it is i mean i i do think they're going to announce something about that what we're seeing
here i don't know what it is though this is my take i don't think they're gonna announce anything
Yeah, they might not. They might not announce anything.
They don't have to.
Yeah, I think the focus is going to be on digital credit education
and getting as much stretch out the door as possible.
I think that's kind of what I picked up from the last earnings call
is that strategy has been in this evolving phase for the past.
really five, six years now. And I think we've finally hit a kind of
a state in which we can bear down and laser, like what Sailor says, laser focus on the mission,
on the strategy. And that's selling stretch. It's pretty clear, like all the other preferreds,
it just complicates everything. It's just stretch. We're focusing on stretch. We want to sell stretch.
You know, we're going to have, have people build on stretch. And that's, that's what I want to hear.
I want to hear the plan of how, how, you know, how are they talking to people? How are they
marketing it uh in a conversation going yeah what what what are the avenues um
yeah don't they need to stretch for don't they need to stretch for europe though too
look that's assuming there's like investable capital in europe right you know the best thing
they could do is they could they could take out a marketing plan with uh freaking uh aarp
and send it to everybody that's over the age of 55 years old and say, look, we have this thing that
pays, what's the current rate on stretch? 11.25%? 11.25%, yeah. Right. It pays 11.25%,
return of capital. They should partner with AARP and send it out to all the retirees and say,
get off of, it's not a CD, demand your 11% from your broker. And they should-
That's a really good idea, Grant.
Right. I mean, let's just be realistic. They're not going to sell it. The Bitcoin is like, oh, we're only getting 11%. We want amplification. We want MSTR. We own Bitcoin, the high volatility, 11% a year. I think that it's an awesome product. But I think the right group to market it towards is a bunch of retirees. Pick where it is and then pitch it.
i would do a road show for all those different locations in in florida texas new york whatever
arizona and and i would i would pitch it there i would do a mailing a mailing campaign
and and do that that would that would drive adoption of stretch from the retail side
it's not going to be getting a bunch of retirees to go to vegas for this
what is it called when you when you get a bunch of people in a room and then they like test a product
beta testers beta testing yeah yeah oh uh yeah when they're like oh does this product taste good
and stuff yeah yeah yeah like let's let's get a bunch of retirees in the room and and pitch them
you know 50 different times and see which one's the most effective like
or just give them give them extra 5 000 bucks every month and see if they're happier or less
happy focus group focus group that was it thank you i think that's the classic play here you know
or or buy stretch and get a toaster they're like oh i gotta buy you know
back in the no but guys back in the old days yeah toaster invest in toasters
no you know it was open up a bank account and you get a you have a choice of a free toaster
or a pan or something, people would do that.
I mean-
People love pans.
People love free stuff.
stuff. So I would, I would, I would go pitch that. I mean, I, that's what I would, you know,
that's what I'll tell sailor and Fong, dude, you gotta, you gotta sponsor AARP, do a mailer.
I was like, I was copy trading with my brother-in-law trying to teach him how to sell
options or whatever. And so I have him sell this option and he picks up like a hundred bucks in
premium. And it was a few days before stretch pays the dividends. So I'm like, you know,
don't leave it sitting in cash. I'm like, just buy one share of stretch. I mean, it was just
literally one share. But a couple of days later, he's like, why do I have this pending 94 cent
deposit? Like, because you just got paid a dividend. It's like, oh, well, that's cool.
You know what I mean? Like, he didn't even know that, you know, I was just having him buy this
thing as his dry powder that's better than a melting ice cube. And, you know, just it's going
to permeate every area of finance, I think. There's going to be tons of tons and uses for this.
A couple of things I've found over the last couple of weeks that are pretty interesting
is at least my broker doesn't do it yet. Dividends are not reinvested. So I actually
have to go in and reinvest the dividends with the preferred instruments, which is crazy.
If you buy like a dividend stock, you can select drip, but none of the preferreds for
some reason.
Really?
Yeah. If that's the case somewhere else, please tell me. I mean, we're trying to figure this
out um but uh yeah we we are we are seeing that uh across other brokerages but there there's you
know not everybody even offers all of these products either right i got a few text messages
from friends like hey i can't get this here and so it's like okay well we've got to go go figure
out how to get this in different places right like uh i mean stretch for example was just added to
x stocks which is a tokenized like stock platform and there are there are several tokenized stock
platforms they could be on five or six different tokenized stock platforms where stretch can be
there and you can you know go in and out of different different systems and get paid the
dividend in those different systems like be based in ethereum or solana or all these other things
so yeah there's still a lot of work to be done and then i i think in my opinion going back to
strategy world was going to happen there.
Like talking about framework for rating agencies, regulation,
what's on the horizon.
I mean, we just saw Scott Bessent come out.
What do you say?
The administration is removing all regulatory barriers against Bitcoin and
crypto.
Like I literally said that yesterday.
What does that mean?
Clarity Act.
Like how does that impact what strategy is doing?
Is that part of the conversation?
Does the Basel 3 framework come up?
Is that a battleground?
Is that what people are pushing for?
Some of those things I think would be top of mind discussions.
Here we go.
Somebody just said no drip on E-Trade for SDRC or SATA.
Interactive Broker does it apparently.
but yeah i mean we're still we're still finding out that there are several brokerage platforms
that people use day to day and that stuff just doesn't exist on there um so there's just work
to be done across all these different platforms and make these things more available so so i i
want to quote um max plank because sometimes this comes up um and what max playing he's famous for
saying, a famous physicist, a new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents
and making them see the light, but rather its opponents eventually die and a new generation
grows up that is familiar with it. And so what I think is going to happen is there's going to be
people that are going to, as Stretch came out in July, it's whatever, seven months old.
What's going to happen is, is there's going to be a generation of people that start using Stretch
and say, hey, I'm used to getting 11% paid monthly, right?
And the new platforms are, if you want to sign,
if your bank isn't going to give it to you,
there's a lot of friction with an old person going to sign up with it.
But that's the reason why a lot of banks bought brokerage houses.
So you can make that, you go talk to a different person in your branch,
you say, oh, here's a brokerage account.
Oh, we have money and oh, we can go do this for you and go take care of that.
So I think that banks are going to be the biggest distributors of STRC.
And it's just a matter of time.
And they realize that if they don't do this, this is why everybody's talking about the
Clarity Act.
But, you know, if look, if Tether could pay you 4% and STRC is paying you 11% and it's
our return of capital, I think that the easy choice there is to go for STRC, right?
i i don't think that it takes two hours to explain that it's gonna take a little while we just saw
with our 500k mint last night on buck we we checked the chain history and these guys were
holding the sky stable coin which is a stable coin that pays out yield but i think it's backed by t
bills so it pays out like whatever it is three and a half percent and the guys just slugged you know
they they dumped they dumped it and slugged right into stretch or into buck another you know back
back by structure now getting 10%.
So I think like more and more people are like,
oh, like this thing keeps paying that 10%.
Why not buy it?
Right.
The best thing, like Soleil,
what you had said about your brothers that,
wait a second, I got 94 cents.
So for every 100 bucks, it's like,
well, I put more in, I get paid more.
Once people start getting used to that,
then they buy more of it.
I think that that's what happens.
And so even the first prep
is only a year old. I think that's one of the hardest things to get people used to this.
We've been talking about this for a year, but if people don't know what the prefs are.
Look, I had never really heard of it. I tangentially heard of preferred stocks before
strategy did it, but I always thought that it wasn't something that I was very much interested
in So I never really looked at it I think Strike was released about a year ago I think it like a one anniversary of of strike Yeah So I believe it was January So so we had the one year anniversary and I think getting that point across is is is the key part So I think that you know that where we are
today. Yeah. Another thing just as a piece of information I found out this week is, right. So
all of the perpetual preferred equity instruments from strategy have options on them, which I think
is fascinating. Dan, you've done some research, except strike, I believe, right? Like there's
an options chain to go in and out on leverage on some of these. So Seda doesn't have an
options chain. And it needs to have 7 million shares before an options chain is available
from, I guess, the options clearinghouse. So there's like things to look forward to on
the horizon. For us thinking about that, that structure in place as well, which is interesting,
because that opens up different pools of capital that are interested in taking different positions
in different ways with leverage. And leverage on the perpetual preferred instruments is
interesting. I'm going to leave you guys with some hopium here.
Do it. Rip it.
Sure. MSTR was trading over $400 a share in July of last year, so it's not that long ago.
Let's just assume that Jeff Park, I think he's right. The whole thing that would happen with this
hedge fund based in Hong Kong that blew up with using IBIT options, software as a service. We've
been talking about this for two weeks. The guy Parker, I think that those guys are right.
I think that in my view is where's the hopium? If in a down market for SaaS due to AI and Bitcoin
price going down, and what happened on October 10th with the whole Binance thing where it lost
the peg on that oracle not related to Bitcoin cause this sell off. My view is the same thing
can happen in reverse. So whatever price MSTR is at in the future, if the price of Bitcoin ramps up
and somebody is short on MSTR or on Bitcoin, we will see the same thing happen what we saw in 2024.
You'll see the price of MSTR triple in 90 days and people will be like, oh my God,
when's it going to drop again? And you just pointed him, well, I guess you should have bought
on February 18th to 2026. It's the same thing that will happen the reverse way.
But the difference is, is that Bitcoin's a finite asset and we have not seen that happen yet.
True price discovery on it, the convexity, that's the part that will kick in. The other part is that
strategy has tripled the amount of Bitcoin per share, right? They had less than 200,000, sorry,
They had less than 200,000 Bitcoins January 1st, 2024.
Now they have over 700,000.
I do know that they were issuing shares.
So they have double the Bitcoin per share.
But if it gets a run this time, it's fundamentally different because the shares have more Bitcoin
in it.
And I think from that perspective, when that hits, that's what we're all thinking about.
It's not a question of if that happens.
It's just a matter of when.
and on the prefs on strc if the price of that ratchets up they just what do they do they then
atm more bitcoin which feeds that is a feedback loop to what we've been talking about and think
about it if they can do 78 million dollars what was it this week in strc in a week right in a
bull market with things running and strc is ramping up then you would think the number's got to be
larger. It's not smaller. Yeah, it's way larger. I think that the scale is really interesting too.
Like as Bitcoin price goes up, they get de-levered, right? They get de-amplified.
And so you think about the scale of the balance sheet that they've got right now. Again,
we haven't seen the perpetual preferred equity model in a bull market yet. And we haven't seen
what the equity can do in that market yet. And people think that it shouldn't work, right? So
you got people shorting the stock. I think there's upwards of 10 to 15% of MSDR stock shares
outstanding to being shorted. Thinking about the structure of the balance sheet and what that looks
like in the future. I mean, what do we know about strategy? They're going to be selling tons of
equity, common equity, preferred equity. That's likely going to be the case in the future.
But there kind of becomes a point, an inflection point where the balance sheet is so big that
selling common equity is just less lucrative and they like don't need to do it. Right. So I'm just
looking at the price of or the balance sheet, I just plug this in.
If if Bitcoin does a triple from here, which Dan, I think you said this the other day,
people don't remember what a triple feels like.
A triple feels good and a triple could be on the horizon.
So if Bitcoin triples from here, 66 to 200,000, the the amplification on their balance
sheet goes to 11 percent, like the debt on the balance sheet goes to 4 percent.
So their capacity to issue, to keep it at a 33% amplification, it is that, what is that on a percentage basis?
That's a, that times that.
basically they had a 43 billion dollars of capacity to issue perpetual preferred equity
with bitcoin at a price of 200 okay how come your price of uh mstr doesn't oh you just plugging in
i've got no no price of mstr change but like that i mean obviously that would go higher
bitcoin goes to 200 000 if it didn't we'd have some serious problems but uh
But I guess what I'm saying is that there becomes a point where the scale is so large,
like the incentive to issue common, it gets smaller, I think.
I think, will they be issuing common?
Absolutely.
Like when there's significant volume coming in the door.
But I think this is still an incredibly interesting business model for the next four years the next eight years like the world is getting more digital The world is moving this way and it unstoppable right Like this AI stuff is unstoppable Like crypto is unstoppable
I mean, will regulatory regimes try to stop it and make changes and stuff? Absolutely. But
this stuff is unstoppable. And we haven't truly, to your point, we haven't truly seen what price
discovery looks like i mean november 24 was pretty euphoric but like yeah but going
go ahead if like 07 08 happens again or something like that where you're like okay financial mania
and everybody's running to hard assets yeah but i don't think that that's going to happen again
the reason why is because you know back we can look up in 07 and 08 we were probably at 15 maybe
$15 trillion in debt or maybe somewhere, you know, 12. And then during COVID, we were about 20
trillion. So we've added $18 trillion in debt. And so if people are like, that's the best it's
going to, every day is the best. It gets worse and worse every day for just the U.S. debt.
And the U.S. is 60% of the world financial markets, just overall for the world as an overall number.
So why do we keep on talking about this? If the if we're the best of the worst, right, or the best, you know, the best of the worst countries for doing this, we're $38 trillion in debt, that's not going to get any better. They're not going to balance the budget. It's almost it's a $1.8 trillion every year. That's the that's the deficit every year. And then that piles on to the debt. So it's not going to get any better. And that's why I'm saying this is just, you know, it goes back to your question, Jeff, what's what's a riskier bet? The dollar is going lower.
and we're going higher. The question is just how much and how soon?
So here's a fun fact. The US debt to GDP, so the ratio, the debt relative to gross domestic product
is cagering at 3.8% since 2008. Think about that for a second. GDP itself is going up 4.4% a year.
the debt to gdp that ratio is going up that is staggering at 3.8 percent right now the u.s debt
to gdp is 120 if you take that and you forecast it out to 2036 that's 170 the debt relative to
the country's gdp is 170 you forecast that out 10 years it was the world right because it gets
because what happens is it's going to grow every year that's what that that's what you're showing
about this yeah you know i'm gonna and by the way i heard this joke somebody said this there's two
economists walking down the street one economist says to the other economist i bet you won't eat
that dog crap for a hundred bucks and so the economist eats the dog crap then the same to
you know they're walking down the street again the one that ate the dog crap says to the other
economist says i bet you won't eat that dog crap for a hundred bucks and so that guy eats the dog
crap and so they walk into a bunch of more steps they go dude why did we just eat dog crap he's
like i don't care but we just added 200 to gdp okay on that note we're gonna have to go around
and do final thoughts like we're talking about economists eating dog poop and yeah right but
that's how gdp is calculated it could be bullish as long as it both goes back and forth it doesn't
matter what they do with it it's double counted even if it was for useless hey mike i have one
more joke that's that's almost as funny as that one but has nothing to do with uh economics have
you heard the muffin joke no no it's just rated r no two muffins were in the oven have you heard
this one no i don't think so he's just narrating his experience the other night the first muffin
And the first muffin says, is it just me or is it hot in here?
And the second muffin says, holy crap, a talking muffin.
All right.
Oh, yeah, we're going to end on that one.
Okay, that's Tim's final thoughts.
We've got talking muffins.
Stand up to close out the day.
It's a bear market.
Yeah, final jokes.
Everybody gets one joke.
You guys have to come up with a joke now.
Oh, God.
No.
So maybe over to you, Mason.
What's final thoughts?
Yeah, yeah.
If you really listen to what Graeme said about the fiscal situation of the US, you realize
that the mathematics lead to monetary debasement, to inflation, to increase money supply.
And when you are listening to the CNBC talking heads talk to Saylor, this is what they fundamentally
don't understand that Bitcoin's not going to $8,000 and staying there for four years
because of the fiscal situation of the government, right? Not only the fiscal situation of the
government, but from the onslaught of deflation that AI is going to bring and the monetary response
from that as well. And then just general Bitcoin adoption, right? So you have these three forces
that are going to drive Bitcoin up.
And if you are in this period
and you're worried about price
or you think Bitcoin's going to zero,
I think you fundamentally don't understand
the environment in which we are living in,
the realities, the physics of the situation.
This is a gift.
This is a gift for, you know,
the DIP's a gift for MSTR.
right? We're adding Bitcoin below cost basis and stretch is functioning well,
selling a hundred million in a week. That's pretty good. So I think you have to have that perspective.
Price is just price, right? And that should not set the narrative or your attitude. You need to
to have a larger thesis And you just need to look at the reality of the situation Like Bitcoin is going to go up eventually And right now it just an opportunity That all it is
Dealing with some people.
Do you mind if I follow up on Masons, Jeff?
Get it.
Yeah.
I mean, I think we all have to remember, like when we were buying during bear markets,
and it feels like we haven't been in a bear market for a while,
but when we were buying bear markets, you're forced to look at
and take a really, really long-term time horizon.
and you're also forced to buy not because you think the price will go up but because you believe
in the underlying asset and then you believe like in a long time that's not today the price will
ultimately be higher and that's that's really hard mentally like over the past three years
you've been like yeah they're going to probably be higher in like two months three months
four months now we're sitting in a position where it's like yeah you know it may take a little bit
to get reclaim an all-time high but then you have to determine where the value is and go back to
reading and you go back to studying instead of looking at price charts.
And I think that stuff's a really good reset for people.
Fundamentals back to the fundamentals and they haven't changed.
Nothing's changed.
That's kind of smart.
Exactly.
It's the whole thing, right?
Like nothing's changed.
You look like you sit back, it's the dead guy portfolio.
You sit back and you look at things like if you bought four years ago and you
opened your brokerage account right now, you'd be like, huh, interesting.
Like all the noise is gone.
You wouldn't even know, right?
You just look at, okay, over time, this is looking good.
Over to you, Tim.
Muffins?
Again?
Oh, no.
So on a serious note, I guess what comes to mind is just the news cycle,
like the pace of the news cycle along with the pace of AI.
So, I mean, Eleanor Territ posted maybe 15 minutes ago,
a third stablecoin yield meeting is set to take place at the white house tomorrow at 9 a.m
a small group representing crypto and banks is expected to attend so it's just like this stuff
is happening and it's taking time but um when these things hit the newswire i mean a narrative
any narrative that's constructive is all going to help and it's going to accelerate so i think the
convergence of however many things you want to put on the chart all happening and accelerating
is definitely what it feels like right now. 100%. Soleil. Yeah, so I was watching a Jeff Booth
podcast, as I do every time it comes out, and he was given this example of if you ask people,
if I folded a piece of paper 50 times, how thick would it be? And most people are like,
I don't know, two inches.
And the reason is we're so off is because we don't understand exponentials.
And the real answer is like 300,000 miles or something.
It gets you like, yeah, it gets you like three quarters of the weight of the sun.
Like you could just go back and forth to the moon like 100,000 times or something ridiculous.
And human minds just cannot comprehend exponentials.
But you know who can?
AI can.
Computers.
So they get it.
And so what I thought was going to happen is 2021 was going to be the, you know, the bull market of individual adoption.
2025, I thought, okay, we get Bitcoin treasury companies.
2029, we get nation state adoption.
And I thought that was it.
I thought nation states were the final boss.
And I thought we weren't going to get that until, you know, 2029-ish.
And we're getting them all now, but we're also getting agentic adoption.
And so they're going to want Bitcoin and they're going to be able to, you know, basically it'll be lines of code, writing lines of code and just creating more and more agents to buy more and more Bitcoin.
And we're getting all of these drivers in one cycle.
So I couldn't be more bullish.
So I love that point on computers.
And this is something I'm going to talk about strategy world as well.
Bitcoin is observable.
the digital credit products are observable computers love observations like that's data
that's information that can be made a decision can be made on that information and in a world of
expanding computer adoption and ai adoption the things that are observable are more interesting
to computers than things that are not and that that's where we're going like these computers are
going to move exponentially, right? Like we're, there's going to be more everywhere. They're
going to compute faster than ever before. And there's going to be more interest in these types
of instruments than anything else because the computers want them. Like they're more interested
in them because they can calculate the risk more frequently. They're like, they create trading
pairs, all of that stuff. So, I mean, so true. So true. It's going to be a good time.
right on it's going higher hey see you guys see you guys on sunday sunday boom yeah we're we're
in vegas we'll be there sunday i think uh we'll have some time i think a couple people will be
running around come hang out if you're around yeah true north world that will be on monday
and strategy world all of next week it's going to be a great time i think it's a big week uh
building energy here we've been going through just a period of just tremendous headwinds i feel like
everything in my life has been a headwind recently too it's like i had to take my dog to the emergency
vet because it got stuck stuck in its throat i got the flu uh and then i figured out i have a
like closed moss that i picked up in my luggage from dallas like everything bad is happening
it will turn things will turn around we will have tailwinds in the future uh and everybody
everybody's moving forward everybody's moving this industry forward banks are moving this industry
forward uh politics are moving this industry forward all these companies are moving this
industry forward and everybody's working like nothing has changed except the price so
look forward to seeing everybody next week appreciate the time that's it for episode 56
we'll catch you in two weeks from now see y'all later see ya