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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 86.

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My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com and JupiterBroadcasting.com.

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It seems the Bitcoiners, they're all at a holiday cheer this year.

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I don't think I have ever seen sentiment this bad, maybe not even during FTX, maybe going all the way back to Mt. Gox.

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I was surprised, really.

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I mean, you always kind of see an uptick in negative sentiment when we're down from all-time highs.

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But even notes coming into the show, there's concerns about price suppression or price manipulation.

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And you know what?

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I started looking into it, and maybe there is some merit to these claims.

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Probably not what you're expecting, but something that is at least worth talking about.

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Fox Business Alert. Take a look at Bitcoin. Just a second ago, it was down five and a quarter percent.

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right now down 4.97% to under $86,000. It's at $85,858. It's kind of been a brutal 24-hour

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crypto freefall, dragging nearly all crypto stocks into a bit of a winter abyss here. In particular,

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the so-called Bitcoin hoarder company, Strategy. Strategy is at the very bottom of the NASDAQ.

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Shares are down 8.5% right now. Bitcoin at the moment is leading the pack for liquidations. In

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the past 24 hours, investors who own that particular crypto have sold positions to the

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tune of 205 million. But guess who sees... Liquidations is kind of the name of the game.

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What's become clear this year is the big wallets. They run the show. Us retailers,

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we can stack and, you know, we probably set some sort of base floor price, but

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it's institutions, it's even nation states now that are really moving the price.

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And here's a lens which you could view this with. Since the iShares Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock's

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IBIT ETF began trading, all the net gains have occurred after trading hours here in the States.

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Talk about driving the market. So if you just bought the close and you sold the next open

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on IBIT and you did that throughout the year, you would be up 222% right now.

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If you did the opposite, if you bought the open and sold the close, you would be down 40.5% right

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now. So if you buy the close and sell the next open, you're up 222%. If you buy the open and sell

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the next close, you're down over 40%. The price action, the positive price action, all happens

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outside of regular trading hours for the ETF. And like I mentioned recently, there's also been this

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10 a.m. sell-off almost every single day. Some people think it's winter mute, others think maybe

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it's China selling off some of their stock. But for example, on December 12th, after the 10 a.m.

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sale, Bitcoin dropped $2,000 in price in 35 minutes and wiped out $40 billion in market cap

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in 35 minutes. And at that time, it triggered a liquidation of $132 million worth of longs.

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Now, we're going to get a theme here. On December 15th, the 10 a.m. sale happened,

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And Bitcoin dumped, again, $3,200 this time, a little bit more, and went from $89,000 to $86,000 and liquidated $203 million worth of longs.

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Are you sensing a theme here?

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And all of that action, $203 million worth of longs, wiped out in 60 minutes.

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There was no negative news at that time I was watching.

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There was not even any stupid FUD.

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And then today, as I was prepping the show, Bitcoin shot up 3% in 20 minutes, chilled there for about a half hour, and then went straight down 3% in 20 minutes.

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And you can see it in the price chart, these big buys that shoot the price way up, then it holds there, some longs build, and then they shoot the price way down.

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So we do know this.

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We brought in Wall Street, and they're playing Wall Street games, but we don't have any Wall Street rules.

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You know, eventually they're going to get screwed, right?

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It's a finite asset, and it's really the people that are trading with leverage.

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They're going to get screwed.

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And I suspect the market makers that work for organizations like BlackRock, they are trying to push these leverage traders out of the market.

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Punish them out of the market.

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At 8 a.m. Pacific today, check this out.

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I've been looking into this.

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I don't normally follow this, but you guys asked.

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At 8 a.m. Pacific today, Wintermute, Binance, BlackRock, and Coinbase all made big buys around the same time, a cluster set of buys.

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The price shot up from $87,000 to $90,000 in 20 minutes this morning.

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Some longs built.

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People started to get a little bit bullish.

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Oh, it's a turnaround, everybody thought.

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So they started hedging that the price was going to go up.

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And then all four, Wintermute, Binance, BlackRock, Coinbase, they all sold.

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Again, cluster cells all around the same time, immediately liquidating the longs once again.

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And this is twice that can happen in one day when the liquidity is particularly thin like it usually is in mid-December.

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So you have these cluster cells from these big players like Wintermute, who's a market maker, or Binance.

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Then they'll trigger a big set of cells.

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So in this time, in this case, they triggered $132 million long liquidations.

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They liquidated $132 million again.

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that's forced sales for people that are over leveraged,

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people that were making bullish bets

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that the price was going to go up.

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They had to force sell.

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It's above my pay grade here,

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but it seems like they're hunting around

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for low liquidity moments in the market.

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And sometimes there's multiple moments within a day

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and they're taking their shots.

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Now, is that manipulation?

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No, actually, it's not really.

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I mean, not, I think, technically,

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it's traders doing trader things, right?

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They're buying and selling,

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but they're buying and selling with large bags.

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And the DGENs are getting wiped out.

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the people that are buying Bitcoin or making bets either way using leverages, using loans,

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they're getting just slammed. And it seems like the pain is going to continue until their behavior

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improves. It, to me, reads like they're trying to incentivize the market to stop some of this

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degen behavior, dial it back a little bit. And I'll explain why I think that in a minute.

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But it doesn't have to be like this. Brian Armstrong, the CEO of Coinbase,

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He's been going to D.C. on the regular, trying to apply pressure to the Congress creditors to pass a market structure bill which would tame some of this.

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And this is Brian. He's out on the Hill one month ago.

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Hey, Melissa and Brian, thank you so much for being here with us.

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You know, before today you had Chairman Tim Scott said, hey, Democrats need to give a date to mark up this market structure bill.

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He said the same after your meeting. Democrats, though, are still saying they need a bipartisan draft to move forward.

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Did anything change after today?

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Yeah, well, we had great meetings with the Democrats in the Senate and on the Republican side today.

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And the good news is that there is strong bipartisan support and will to get this market structure legislation done.

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All right, we got good bipartisan support, he says, one month ago.

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So things going really swimmingly.

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And like I said, he really has been going out there.

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He got himself a nice set of specs, a great new suit.

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And he has been out there almost day after day trying to get this thing passed.

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This is Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, just two days ago.

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Hey, everyone. Brian Armstrong, Coinbase CEO here.

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I'm in the halls of Congress, back again, pushing for market structure legislation.

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We've seen a lot of progress since I was last here.

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We've now seen draft text shared by the Senate Ag Committee.

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Senate banking is also working nights and weekends to get the next iteration of their text out.

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Lots of progress working nights and weekends.

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What could possibly go wrong?

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Now, Bitcoiners, you should care about this for one simple reason.

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We're still early.

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And that next wave of normies, those non-risk taker normies,

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they're people who are interested perhaps in a savings technology outside the dollar,

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but they don't really trust anybody outside their institutions.

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And sometimes it's because they have huge bags.

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Sometimes it's just because they're traditional.

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Whatever it is, that's their preference.

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And they're waiting for these institutions to take away some of the scary edges and build Bitcoin into financial products that can be easily sold to them.

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And we don't get that next wave of customer without some rules of the road that these folks need to follow.

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That's just how they operate.

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If they don't know what the rules are, they're not going to go all in.

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They're not going to take some of the risk.

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What we see right now with Bitcoin is the early adopters, which has been incredible.

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But this week, the Senate Banking Committee confirmed that Bitcoin and the crypto market structure bill will not advance in 2025.

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Sorry, Brian. Womp womp.

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Turns out, I guess there just wasn't the juice.

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Armstrong couldn't move the needle.

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Next, we're learning key crypto legislation just got pushed to next year.

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Crypto market structure legislation is expected to be marked up in early 2026.

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That's according to the Senate Banking Committee, with a spokesperson saying committee chair Tim Scott and the committee have made strong progress with Democrats on bipartisan digital asset market structure legislation.

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The industry, lawmakers and many crypto world guests throughout the year were hopeful a market structure bill would become law in 2025 to go along with the Genius Act Stablecoin Act, which President Trump signed into law over the summer.

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I think you get the idea. It seems like Armstrong just couldn't get it over the line.

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Now, I don't have all of the details here, but following different Congress critters on social media, the rumor and hubbub is that Senator Warren threw a wrench into things.

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I don't know if this is true or not, but it appears that they had a BSA surveillance clause that they wanted to add to the bill, which the Congress critter I was following called unconstitutional.

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and they said that it would treat software developers much like financial institutions,

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which would be an unbearable burden on them.

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And so they essentially were trying to negotiate a non-negotiable position.

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And that has stalled things out.

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Now, this is notable because 14 days ago, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink was on the deal book stage.

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And, you know, he goes into his typical Bitcoin pitch, which I have played for you guys before.

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So at this point, I don't even bother clipping it for the show.

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But I listened back again, and I kept listening a little bit further,

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and I realized that Larry said the quiet part out loud.

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I think we need to get back to what is the purpose.

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What is the purpose of Bitcoin?

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Then we get into the stablecoin.

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You know, the $13.5 trillion that BlackRock managed on behalf of our clients,

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it's basically managing hope.

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That's all it is.

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I mean, why would anybody invest in a 30-year outcome?

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Unless you're hopeful in 30 years, you're going to have the compounding effect.

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Bitcoin is an asset of fear.

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And when you're less fearful, like we had a trade agreement with China, you saw a shift downward.

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There is conversations this week that there may be some type of settlement in Ukraine.

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Bitcoin fell.

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This is such a stupid premise.

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I mean, I don't mean to be just so blunt about it, but it's a sales pitch that he has come up with that he can use on a stage like this in front of financial wonks and maintain his credibility after all of the things he has said for the last decade about Bitcoin.

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But the idea that it's hope or fear, it's silly.

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A little bit.

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So you own Bitcoin because you're frightened of your physical security.

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security. You own it because you're frightened of your financial security. The long-term

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fundamental reason you own it because the debasement of financial assets because of...

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What he's really saying, but he doesn't have the sack to say it, is you might hold Bitcoin because

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you're convinced that your government is falling apart. They're debasing the currency. Basic civil

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safety is deteriorating and the conditions are getting worse and worse. And so if you're hedging

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against your government, you might buy some Bitcoin. And he said this in other contexts

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before, because he'll talk about how it's a non-sovereign store of value. It's not attached

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to any particular nation state or any particular debasement situation. Anyways, this isn't the main

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point of the clip, but if he's going to run a stupid mouth like this, I just, actually,

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I shouldn't say it's stupid because he's very much intentionally saying it like this. It's a

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calculated thing. So it's not stupid at all. Meanwhile, Brian Armstrong is sitting next to him

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with like this look on his face, like, I don't co-sign this. Basement of financial assets because

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of deficits. And so to me, even the movement in the last week, and we've had about a 20, 25%

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drawdown. And this is the third time since Ibit was created, our ETF. And so this is,

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you see these shifts and they're actually pretty non-correlated shifts. And that's,

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and so the role. But then some people say, is that really insurance, right? If you had bought

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at $125,000, and it's now sitting at 90-some-odd thousand dollars.

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Sorkin coming in with his classic mid-take of,

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is not a store of value because I bought it at $125,000,

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and then a month later it's at $90,000.

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And he's saying this to Larry Fink,

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Mr Long Investor buy assets and hold them It I don know how Sorkin has this job You see these shifts and they actually pretty non shifts And that and so the role But then some people say is that really insurance

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Right. If you had bought it at one hundred twenty five thousand dollars and it's now sitting at 90 some odd thousand dollars, you're saying if you bought it for a trade, you know, it's a very volatile asset.

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You're going to have to be really good at market timing, which most people aren't.

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If you buy it as a hedge against all your hope, you know, then it has a meaningful impact on a portfolio.

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If you buy it as a hedge against your hope, which is so stupid, right?

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Because you could easily twist this around.

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Well, Bitcoin is hope because I'm hopeful that even though everything's going to get debased and the quality of living is going to go down, I'm hopeful I have a way to store my energy today for the future.

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So I'm hopeful that I'm going to live long enough to enjoy those benefits.

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So you could make an argument that holding Bitcoin into the future is an inherently hopeful action.

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This is dumb. This entire argument is just dumb, but it's a pretense he needs in order to talk like this.

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But what is actually important is the part he says in just a moment.

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You're going to have to be really good at market timing, which most people aren't.

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If you're buying it as a hedge against all your hope, you know, then it has a meaningful impact on a portfolio.

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The other big problem of Bitcoin is it's still heavily influenced by leveraged players.

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That's what I wanted to talk to you guys.

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What?

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What?

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Larry Fink, with all the things on his plate, all of the little details here and there, he's worried about leveraged traders in Bitcoin.

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He says one of its big problems, this is 14 days ago.

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14 days ago, he says one of Bitcoin's big problems, and he has a bit of a stake in Bitcoin with Ibit, is the leverage trading.

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Heavily influenced by leverage players.

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It is.

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That's what I want.

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So this I don't think should be ignored.

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Larry Fink has been talking about this somewhere in the halls of BlackRock around some board table or whatever it is.

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They have been talking about leverage traders being an issue in Bitcoin.

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That's my read on that.

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And that to me should not be ignored. If you want to call it manipulation, I guess. But I think it's people with a stake in the market with large wallets that want to maybe just force some of this degen behavior out.

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That's my take. What do you think? Is there some sort of market manipulation happening? Is the price being suppressed? Or is there just simply more sellers than buyers?

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Boost into the show, support the show, and let me know.

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And this next segment might be a reason, maybe, why people are selling.

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This is my last planned episode of the year.

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I mean, that could always change if something crazy happens.

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But right now, the next episode would be on Christmas Eve, and then the one after that would be New Year's Eve.

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So I've decided I'm going to just take those two episodes off.

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But then that got me thinking of some of the narratives and stories that have developed over the 2025 year.

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And when I think of ones that are going to be playing out through 2026, I unfortunately believe that quantum computing as a threat to Bitcoin is going to be a continued FUD narrative through 2026.

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Because it's the perfect Bitcoin FUD.

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Unlike the energy or ESG narratives, which you could debunk with some quick napkin math, just boom, boom, boom, look at this, look at that, or go to this website, read this thing, you could actually explain away the energy and ESG concerns with practical reality-based responses.

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Quantum computing is a technically real thing.

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Shor's algorithm running on a large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computer would eventually break ECDSA.

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that is obvious. It could be maybe at absolute, absolute best five years, but the timeline's a

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total fog. It's probably closer to something like 20 years. It may actually never happen.

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No one knows. I mean, literally no one knows. So there's just all of this room for debate and

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argument about the severity of the issue because literally no one has the answer. So it's the

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perfect thing for the internet to just go sensationalist with. And then the reality is

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there are some mitigations. Bitcoiners have been looking into this for a while. Bitcoin can upgrade

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around this. But even the best case scenarios, there may be some consensus heavy events. You

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know, there may be a scenario where some coins get abandoned, maybe depending on what the fix is.

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So it's like there's not a there's not a super easy fix. There are paths to fixes. But it's just

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There is some noteworthy concern there at some point down the road.

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I don't think it's a huge concern because everybody involved with Bitcoin is incentivized to solve this problem.

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And I think you're going to see a lot of other things get attacked before Bitcoin, like the fiat banking system, SSL and things like that.

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You're going to start seeing the signs this is coming.

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And so there will be a real urgency when we start to see that stuff.

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the reality is this isn't even a fake number.

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There's probably a 100 people total,

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100 people on earth qualified to assess

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the real quantum trajectories that we seem to be facing.

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And what we have is a lot of investors

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that think the next big play after AI is quantum.

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And so, you know, they spent 20 minutes on chat GPT.

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They now think they're a quantum expert

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and they're going out there and they're buying quantum stocks

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and they're scaring investors

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about the risks of quantum to pump their bags.

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This is a real thing that is happening. So you just have total confusion out there, conflicting predictions, confident voices that are saying totally opposite things.

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And there's no clear way for the average person to actually price this risk. So it's really the perfect Bitcoin FUD.

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And, you know, Google comes out, they have big quantum progress. And what was the first headlines that started to pop up?

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Bitcoin's gonna get broke.

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Bitcoin's gonna get cracked.

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It's too risky.

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That's the first headlines that come up.

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And to me, you know, as somebody

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who's just grown up with technology,

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who's been around forever in Bitcoin,

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it's only a threat if Bitcoin weren't to adapt.

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That's the entire premise here.

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The entire quantum risk premise,

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even though we have all these unknowns,

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you could just distill it all down to,

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It's only a threat if Bitcoin doesn't adapt.

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And Bitcoin breaking from quantum isn't the base case.

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The worst case scenario is not the Bitcoin goes to zero.

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The worst case scenario is that we do absolutely nothing and roughly around 20% of the supply, which is not floating, becomes liquid.

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The older addresses.

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It would be a one-time supply event.

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It's not a protocol failure.

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It's not an ongoing attack against Bitcoin.

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It would be dormant coins going to active.

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And man, I think you and me would be happy to snap those up.

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I'd love to buy some Satoshi Air coins for cheap.

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So long term, the worst case scenario around quantum barely matters.

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The markets absorb the one-off supply shock and you have a fixed asset.

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It gets snapped up.

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So it's like this quantum FUD is really, really building.

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And I'm really disappointed to see macro analyst Luke Groman say that he sold his Bitcoin in large part because of quantum concerns.

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I cannot express to you the nuclear bomb this set off in the macro analyst community in the last week.

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Bitcoiners have been shook to their core by this announcement because Luke was considered one of the great macro analysts.

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And the reasons he sold his Bitcoin are so low, low IQ, it throws into question all his previous analysis.

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So I'll go through this with you, because this is going to be one of the biggest threats of 2026.

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And Luke says that one of the reasons he just sold off a huge part of his stack is because he has concerns about quantum computing.

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Concerns around quantum computing.

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So he sold off his hard asset.

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Very serious people raising the potential that it could be an issue within two to nine years.

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And the quantum stuff is way over my head.

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It's way over my pay grade.

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I try to read it and I feel like the dumbest person alive.

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And I am not in a position to sit here and have any debate with someone.

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Is quantum it at a risk?

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Is it not?

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Make no mistake about it.

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This is a really weak reason to sell your Bitcoin.

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Yeah, I don't know. Maybe it is. Maybe it's not. Right. What it what I'll get into it.

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It's more. What I am in a position to discuss is I've been in markets 30 years and I'm watching the way Bitcoin is not making a new high against gold.

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I'm watching what Heather's doing. I'm watching what these people I respect in the space are saying.

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And I'm saying markets are telling me that serious. And oh, by the way, the OG whales.

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So hold on. Let's back this up. So he's selling. He's he's he's selling because he's watching charts.

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And he's reading Twitter.

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Bitcoin is not making a new high against gold.

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So he's looking at Bitcoin not making a new high against gold.

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Well, first of all, selling Bitcoin based on chart astrology is like a total rookie mistake.

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This is yikes.

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You can read charts in two ways.

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In the show notes, I'll link to some chart readers out there who say the Bitcoin price is about to explode upwards.

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So basing a trade of a scarce asset on what you see in your settings based on your view in trading view is a really poor time preference move.

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But he said something else in there that maybe matters more than just looking at the charts is he said it didn't make a new high against gold.

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Well, this is really it.

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This is part of the crux of it.

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The whole quantum narrative, the reason why Luke has glommed onto this is because gold doesn't have this problem.

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And so it's a pro-gold thing to say without even saying gold.

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And Luke has always been a gold bug.

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I've noticed this for years.

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But what I'm surprised that he hasn't put together, you know, being a gold bug, is that when gold has its run, it runs.

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And gold is still in the process of running.

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It's slowing down, but it's still running.

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So why would he expect Bitcoin to run? Because historically, every single time Bitcoin runs after gold is played out and then Bitcoin outperforms gold by a large margin. How would Luke not know this? The people he's respecting that he's watching on social media, they don't know this. They don't know this.

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Like that's like, yeah, you wouldn't expect Bitcoin to outperform gold while gold is still having its rally moment.

316
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It's a liquidity play.

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And the money, the liquidity is still going to gold.

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And then usually we have about a 90 to 180 day lag.

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After that happens, Bitcoin goes on a rally.

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I'm watching what Heather's doing.

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I'm watching what these people I respect in the space are saying.

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And I'm saying markets are telling me that serious.

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And oh, by the way, the OG whales, most selling in a cycle ever.

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Ah, yes.

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So one of the other signals is the OG whales, one of the most selling ever.

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Well, of course, OG whales are selling.

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We just hit $100,000 for the first time ever.

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Bitcoin's never been here before.

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I'll have more on that in the show later.

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But Luke's working from old data.

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Glassnode shows that whales accumulated 269,822 Bitcoin, worth around $23.3 billion in US dollars around the time.

332
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In the last 30 days, Wales have made the largest accumulation they've ever made in the last 13 years.

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In the last week alone, Wales, that means wallets with already a bunch of Bitcoin, bought 54,000 Bitcoin in the last seven days.

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And Luke, the gold bug, he's clearly discounting the ETF effect that is still ramping up, which I also find crazy because gold went through a very similar process.

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This is Bitwise's CIO, I believe, or CEO.

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We'll come back to Luke, but we'll take a quick divergence because this is clearly missing from Luke's analysis.

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So first on the why ETF demand accelerate, there are three real reasons.

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First is it always happens.

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So if you look at any ETF in history, and I was the CEO of ETF.com before I joined Bitwise, so this is like my old turf.

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00:26:48,116 --> 00:26:51,696
Year one is typically the smallest year, and then it ramps from there.

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If you take the gold ETF, it did $3 billion inflows its first year, and then $5 billion, then $7 billion, then $10 billion, then $18 billion.

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It ramped for seven straight years.

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So this is just what happens in ETFs.

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One of the reasons this happens is a second point, which is big advisory platforms like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch take a long time to turn on exposure to these ETFs. In fact, it's only been within the last six months that advisors at Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, UBS and Wells Fargo, which control north of $10 trillion, could even invest in Bitcoin or Ethereum ETFs. Now, those doors are blown wide open. So we're dealing with another audience.

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And then the final reason is TradFi is just slow The average Bitwise investor on the TradFi side allocates after eight meetings with us If they started those meetings You have to suffer through eight meetings with the same person before they give you money

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It's not suffering. I'm sure it's a pleasure.

347
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Welcome to CryptoLand. But here's the thing, if you started those meetings when the Bitcoin ETF

348
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launched January 2024 and you did them quarterly, guess what? Your eighth meeting was this quarter,

349
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right like we're just in the sweet spot of adoption i know that's hard for people to but

350
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we've been doing this a bit wise for eight years so that's like i'm so glad you guys have been doing

351
00:28:10,532 --> 00:28:18,272
that eight years feels like a hundred but but that is true so look i think etf growth will go up

352
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the the comparison to the net new supply is because i'm a very simple person like crypto

353
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prices are set by supply and demand you have one source of new supply which is blockchain rewards

354
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or staking, et cetera.

355
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And then you have this novel source

356
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of incredible demand on ETFs.

357
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And if we look into 2026, you can be very precise.

358
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At current prices, the Bitcoin network

359
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will produce $15.1 billion worth of new Bitcoin.

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ETFs did, they'll end up doing about $23 or $24 billion

361
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this year in 2025.

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And we think that will go up in 2026.

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So they'll far surpass it.

364
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Ethereum is an even stronger story.

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So they say that both Ethereum and Bitcoin will have more supply bought by the ETFs than will be mined by a large margin.

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And that the ETF buying may ramp up for seven years, or I guess it would be another five and a half, six years.

367
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And a lot of OG whales, I know this is hard for people to believe, but it is true, they're rotating to the ETFs.

368
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You know, if you think about somebody who's been in Bitcoin, and I can kind of speak to this, if you've been in Bitcoin a long time, it can wear you down.

369
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Because, you know, you have seen the light a long time ago, and it just takes, it's just such a grind.

370
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Now, when you zoom out, it's amazing how fast things develop.

371
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But in the day-to-day, it can be such a grind.

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And so if there's a path where you can take a lot of wealth that you've accumulated, convert it to an ETF, and then start selling covered calls or take a collateral-based loan with a really great competitive rate, there's going to be a lot of OGs that are tired, man, and they just want things to be a little easier.

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So they're rotating into ETFs too, and that's going to be a trend that continues.

374
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That looks like selling on chain.

375
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So Luke has misread this situation entirely.

376
00:30:15,972 --> 00:30:41,252
Of course there's additional selling. Of course. We hit $100,000 for the first time. That's amazing. People are rotating ETFs as well, but they are on track at just the ETFs alone. None of the digital asset companies like Saylor, just the ETFs alone are on track to buy more than the supply. That's incredible. That's incredible, and it's going to make a price difference because of the scarcity factor.

377
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So I don't know how Luke misses this because, again, he's a gold bug.

378
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And this happened to the gold ETF when it launched.

379
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But we resume.

380
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Intuitively, if I was worth $50, $100, $200, $300 million, billion dollars in Bitcoin, it's probably mostly in Bitcoin.

381
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I've held it for 15 years, 10 years.

382
00:30:56,912 --> 00:30:57,512
Which one?

383
00:30:58,372 --> 00:31:00,852
I would probably be very tight end in that world.

384
00:31:01,812 --> 00:31:05,252
And I wouldn't sell unless there was some sort of real.

385
00:31:05,252 --> 00:31:10,992
real, I would start to take some off the table if I thought quantum was a risk I wanted to at least

386
00:31:10,992 --> 00:31:15,672
hedge somewhat. This is his logic as to why the OG whales have been selling. Not because we had

387
00:31:15,672 --> 00:31:21,232
$100,000 and they've been hodling for a decade when everybody tells them it's a waste of time,

388
00:31:21,332 --> 00:31:25,572
that they're destroying the environment, that it's only used by criminals, that it's never going to

389
00:31:25,572 --> 00:31:31,372
go anywhere, when their family laughs at them and doesn't listen to them, when they try to convince

390
00:31:31,372 --> 00:31:35,532
It's people day after day and nobody listens and they have to watch all of this and they

391
00:31:35,532 --> 00:31:39,612
see the debasement trade and they still hodl even though they weren't sure.

392
00:31:39,952 --> 00:31:46,752
And then all of this good news comes along and we go from $60,000 to over $100,000 and

393
00:31:46,752 --> 00:31:49,512
he can't wrap his big bald noodle around that?

394
00:31:49,512 --> 00:31:54,192
And so when I see this whale selling, I can't help but think, you know, maybe there's something

395
00:31:54,192 --> 00:31:54,592
there.

396
00:31:54,952 --> 00:31:59,372
Given the price action I'm seeing when you're looking at gold versus Bitcoin, not breaking,

397
00:31:59,372 --> 00:32:04,952
setting a massive, a new high against gold for the first time in its life. When I see it breaking

398
00:32:04,952 --> 00:32:10,792
down on a momentum base, various momentum bases relative to the dollar on long-term charts,

399
00:32:10,852 --> 00:32:15,092
I don't really look at the chart. Like for me, I just want to see the long-term technicals and

400
00:32:15,092 --> 00:32:19,472
the long-term technicals were really breaking down about three, four weeks ago, six weeks ago.

401
00:32:19,912 --> 00:32:25,112
Yeah. Like when there was the massive market issue on, was that October 10th? Was that what it was?

402
00:32:25,112 --> 00:32:30,552
Mm-hmm. Yeah. And so that's really where I just say, you know what, I fully concede I might be

403
00:32:30,552 --> 00:32:36,492
being too cute by half. And these technicals, when they broke each of the last three times,

404
00:32:36,612 --> 00:32:41,292
as emphatically as they just broke about three weeks ago, four weeks ago, the median decline in

405
00:32:41,292 --> 00:32:47,592
Bitcoin was 65, 70% each time. And there have only been three triggers in 14 years, and there have

406
00:32:47,592 --> 00:32:52,792
been no false triggers. It's just funny because he says he's not a chart guy. And then half of

407
00:32:52,792 --> 00:32:53,912
This is him looking at charts.

408
00:32:54,192 --> 00:32:58,252
So for me, it's, you know what, especially given the size that it had grown to in my

409
00:32:58,252 --> 00:33:00,872
portfolio, you know, it was a champagne problem, knock on wood.

410
00:33:00,972 --> 00:33:02,952
And it was, I got something right for change, but.

411
00:33:03,412 --> 00:33:03,512
Yeah.

412
00:33:03,532 --> 00:33:07,672
And then you went and sold it because, you know, he was never really all in.

413
00:33:07,692 --> 00:33:09,372
And I bet this isn't the first time he sold either.

414
00:33:10,132 --> 00:33:14,732
The, it just, to me, it's, it spoke to a need to right size it and substantially reduce

415
00:33:14,732 --> 00:33:15,452
positions.

416
00:33:15,452 --> 00:33:16,772
Cause I just think it's going a lot lower.

417
00:33:16,772 --> 00:33:19,712
And I guess lastly, a tie back wise up functioning.

418
00:33:19,712 --> 00:33:22,852
I've called it the last functioning smoke alarm for five, six, seven years.

419
00:33:23,232 --> 00:33:25,252
Look, it's telling us the first half of next year is going to be ugly.

420
00:33:25,832 --> 00:33:26,892
Let's make no mistakes.

421
00:33:27,432 --> 00:33:34,132
Bitcoin, if this Bitcoin sell-off is not just 100% tech and quantum computing related,

422
00:33:34,732 --> 00:33:37,052
and forget about tech because tech's liquidity too.

423
00:33:37,332 --> 00:33:41,292
If this isn't just a Bitcoin-specific quantum computing sell-off, and I don't think it is,

424
00:33:41,972 --> 00:33:45,792
then what Bitcoin's telling us is, you know, sir, we go back to that BC and AD.

425
00:33:45,792 --> 00:33:50,632
So he's selling because of quantum, but he doesn't think he's selling just because of quantum.

426
00:33:50,872 --> 00:33:54,112
He also thinks next year is going to be a disaster.

427
00:33:54,312 --> 00:33:57,012
Specific quantum computing sell off, and I don't think it is.

428
00:33:57,372 --> 00:34:03,092
Then what Bitcoin's telling us is, you know, sir, we go back to that BC and AD of 2026.

429
00:34:03,932 --> 00:34:04,412
Yikes.

430
00:34:04,672 --> 00:34:10,692
There's a lot of basically everything but gold and the dollar are likely to get waylaid until we get to year zero is what Bitcoin's saying.

431
00:34:10,692 --> 00:34:15,712
And on what time horizon are you bearish Bitcoin? One month, three months, or is this a multi-year

432
00:34:15,712 --> 00:34:20,952
negative view you have? Probably a function of more price than time, but there's probably price

433
00:34:20,952 --> 00:34:27,152
and time. In other words, look, if I woke up and Bitcoin is 40,000 and a little bit of time has

434
00:34:27,152 --> 00:34:32,712
passed and there's revulsion and any number of technical indices. One of the nice things about

435
00:34:32,712 --> 00:34:38,012
having the size following I do on X is it's a very useful indicator of sentiment. I can just,

436
00:34:38,012 --> 00:34:40,552
you know, chum, you know, throw some chum in the water.

437
00:34:40,892 --> 00:34:46,512
Wow. If he's following X sentiment, no wonder he sold. I mean, it's like I said,

438
00:34:46,532 --> 00:34:49,892
at the top of the show, the worst I've ever seen on X and some other places,

439
00:34:50,592 --> 00:34:54,852
literally the worst. And I'm not the only one saying that. I just cannot believe that he would

440
00:34:54,852 --> 00:35:01,892
think that's a valid source for a long-term macro investing. Sure. You can go there and get some

441
00:35:01,892 --> 00:35:07,032
signal, but my goodness. I have in the size following I do on X is it's a very useful

442
00:35:07,032 --> 00:35:13,272
indicator of sentiment. I can just throw some chum in the water and the response I get is pretty

443
00:35:13,272 --> 00:35:16,732
informative. And then it's also going to be a revaluation of the fundamentals, right? Of,

444
00:35:16,732 --> 00:35:22,932
okay, where's price? Probably some time. And then, okay, is quantum getting closer, better,

445
00:35:23,092 --> 00:35:27,732
what have you amongst, and again, I'm not smart enough to figure out whether it is or not.

446
00:35:27,812 --> 00:35:32,332
There's a quorum of people I'm watching that are, this is their lives. I'm going to trust what

447
00:35:32,332 --> 00:35:37,412
they're having to say, but that's for me really more it. Like I, for me, it's a, for at least the

448
00:35:37,412 --> 00:35:42,752
next several months, it's negative. Again, if it crashed tomorrow to a level where it's okay,

449
00:35:42,932 --> 00:35:46,712
and revulsion, I could revisit that, but it's, I don't think that's going to happen.

450
00:35:47,252 --> 00:35:52,072
I don't think it's going to happen that fast. Certainly not the way the last three cycles have

451
00:35:52,072 --> 00:35:56,492
gone. And I, you know, I've lived through each of those, you know, 13, I own Bitcoin, 17, I own

452
00:35:56,492 --> 00:36:01,332
Bitcoin, 21, I own Bitcoin. And it was like, same kind of thing. It felt very similar. The reaction

453
00:36:01,332 --> 00:36:06,572
is very similar. I had a tickler on my calendar literally in September, like, hey, check Bitcoin,

454
00:36:06,672 --> 00:36:11,852
it's the fourth year. And I looked at it, it was like 120. I'm like, man, we're fine. And so I

455
00:36:11,852 --> 00:36:18,552
finally only went negative at like 95,000. Okay. So I think I'm hearing three reasons,

456
00:36:18,652 --> 00:36:22,732
really, when I boil it down, that's driving Luke's reason for selling. And again, I have to tell you,

457
00:36:22,752 --> 00:36:27,612
this really was a bomb in the Bitcoin community. I think one reason is he thinks he can buy back

458
00:36:27,612 --> 00:36:32,412
lower potentially. So he's selling into the four-year cycle. I think his real conviction is

459
00:36:32,412 --> 00:36:36,472
with gold. So he's comfortable selling a large portion of his Bitcoin stack because, well,

460
00:36:36,672 --> 00:36:42,012
he's going to just big brain buy back at the right magical block time after it crashes down to 40,000

461
00:36:42,012 --> 00:36:47,352
or whatever he thinks. And then he'll just buy back in, I guess. But he seems to be selling

462
00:36:47,352 --> 00:36:51,532
because of the four-year cycle theory, but he doesn't seem to be fully informed on the four-year

463
00:36:51,532 --> 00:36:57,312
cycle theory because the way the four-year cycle works is there has to be a blow off top.

464
00:36:57,612 --> 00:37:05,792
we had no blow off top going from 100,000 to 126,000 ain't it chief.

465
00:37:06,212 --> 00:37:08,892
So if you're going to call for your cycle,

466
00:37:08,892 --> 00:37:13,372
then how could you account for the fact that we hit an all time high before the

467
00:37:13,372 --> 00:37:15,612
four year cycle kicked off with the ETFs launched?

468
00:37:15,952 --> 00:37:17,392
And then we never had a blow off top.

469
00:37:17,532 --> 00:37:20,792
So this last cycle was completely dysfunctional and wobbly,

470
00:37:20,872 --> 00:37:22,072
but yeah,

471
00:37:22,072 --> 00:37:23,272
you're going to sell your Bitcoin stack.

472
00:37:23,372 --> 00:37:23,472
Okay.

473
00:37:23,552 --> 00:37:24,552
So kind of,

474
00:37:24,632 --> 00:37:26,432
it seems like that's reason number one,

475
00:37:26,432 --> 00:37:30,332
Reason number two, he's clearly bearish on 2026.

476
00:37:30,932 --> 00:37:35,292
Well, the reality is Luke has been bearish since late 2024.

477
00:37:35,852 --> 00:37:39,592
I don't think the markets computed for Luke since Trump came into office.

478
00:37:40,012 --> 00:37:44,532
Here's a clip of him in early December last year, late 2024.

479
00:37:45,852 --> 00:37:49,792
Tactically, pretty much all these tariffs are going to do a couple of things.

480
00:37:49,792 --> 00:37:57,632
First, they're going to probably strengthen the dollar relative to foreign trading partners.

481
00:37:59,132 --> 00:37:59,992
That's fine.

482
00:38:00,092 --> 00:38:12,152
But then, you know, go back to, you know, point A, which we were just talking about, right, which is if the dollar gets too strong, you're going to blow up the stock market, the bond market, the banks, the government.

483
00:38:12,652 --> 00:38:18,952
So that's sort of problem number one tactically is sort of when do we hit that tripping point?

484
00:38:18,952 --> 00:38:24,012
And I think the market is, you know, in terms of where we're seeing the dollar trade is already starting to discount.

485
00:38:24,312 --> 00:38:26,852
Oh, some tariffs are coming on. It's going to be good for the dollar tactically.

486
00:38:26,932 --> 00:38:31,892
And I think some of the volatility we've seen in equities over the last two weeks is also a reflection of that.

487
00:38:32,732 --> 00:38:38,712
But strategically, I think the market is paying basically no attention to what they're trying to do here,

488
00:38:39,272 --> 00:38:47,312
which is the dollar centric system of the past 50 years requires us not to put tariffs on.

489
00:38:48,192 --> 00:38:52,212
And so everyone's focused on this tactical, oh, what's the dollar going to do?

490
00:38:52,332 --> 00:38:54,232
And are we going to wail on China?

491
00:38:55,452 --> 00:38:55,812
Important.

492
00:38:56,512 --> 00:38:57,932
But don't miss the forest for the trees.

493
00:38:58,932 --> 00:39:00,352
Don't miss the forest for the trees.

494
00:39:01,232 --> 00:39:05,632
They're ending the dollar-centric system in the last 50 years if they put tariffs on.

495
00:39:05,892 --> 00:39:06,472
Full stop.

496
00:39:07,052 --> 00:39:09,572
The flows that have always worked, right?

497
00:39:09,572 --> 00:39:11,112
We send our factories and jobs.

498
00:39:11,212 --> 00:39:11,992
They send us the stuff.

499
00:39:12,092 --> 00:39:12,812
We send them the dollars.

500
00:39:12,892 --> 00:39:13,832
They send the dollars here.

501
00:39:13,832 --> 00:39:18,112
invest in our capital markets to lower our rates, which finances more stuff buying from there.

502
00:39:18,632 --> 00:39:26,132
What they're really saying is the deal, the economic system in the last 50 years is over.

503
00:39:28,592 --> 00:39:34,572
This is why you have to separate the emotion from the signal, because even the most brilliant

504
00:39:34,572 --> 00:39:41,092
macro analysts can let it affect their thinking. Luke got all of that wrong. The dollar is down

505
00:39:41,092 --> 00:39:43,572
relative to trading partners since January of 2025.

506
00:39:43,892 --> 00:39:44,792
Look it up yourself.

507
00:39:45,212 --> 00:39:49,152
In fact, it accelerated its downward trend since March of 2025,

508
00:39:49,552 --> 00:39:52,512
which is right around when the tariffs went into effect.

509
00:39:52,512 --> 00:39:55,512
Now, that clip is over a year old,

510
00:39:55,852 --> 00:39:58,972
and Luke said that the tariffs would tear down the dollar system.

511
00:39:59,292 --> 00:40:01,292
Well, I don't see any signs of that.

512
00:40:01,632 --> 00:40:04,292
I think he was way, way off.

513
00:40:05,092 --> 00:40:05,872
Double fail.

514
00:40:07,252 --> 00:40:09,012
So, yeah, of course he's bearish.

515
00:40:09,572 --> 00:40:11,892
He's been bearish since Trump got elected.

516
00:40:12,332 --> 00:40:13,252
OK, fine.

517
00:40:13,372 --> 00:40:13,692
All right.

518
00:40:13,792 --> 00:40:15,352
But, you know, own your mistakes there.

519
00:40:15,352 --> 00:40:22,852
And then I think third, the biggest reason Luke sold is because he believes OGs are selling because of quantum.

520
00:40:23,332 --> 00:40:24,752
I don't know where he got this from.

521
00:40:25,212 --> 00:40:26,312
It's ridiculous.

522
00:40:26,912 --> 00:40:31,592
And it's obviously people are taking profits at 100,000 or rotating ETFs.

523
00:40:31,612 --> 00:40:31,952
But fine.

524
00:40:32,472 --> 00:40:32,732
Fine.

525
00:40:33,152 --> 00:40:37,492
Let's talk about this because this is the big FUD narrative of 2026.

526
00:40:37,492 --> 00:40:45,792
And I'm going to play a clip from a family wealth manager who's been involved in selling Bitcoin for these OGs later in the show.

527
00:40:45,992 --> 00:40:48,772
I don't want to focus on that right now, and I don't want to spoil the clip.

528
00:40:48,852 --> 00:40:53,932
But suffice to say, that individual does not agree with Luke's take.

529
00:40:54,432 --> 00:40:56,572
And he's the one helping these OG whales sell.

530
00:40:56,712 --> 00:40:59,052
But so for now, let's stay focused on the quantum fight.

531
00:40:59,112 --> 00:40:59,932
I think this is important.

532
00:41:00,412 --> 00:41:03,352
And while I'm not technically worried about it, I do think we should address this.

533
00:41:03,352 --> 00:41:20,692
And like I said, I have a lot of disappointment in Luke here because in his low effort, low IQ take on quantum, he's contributing a very loud and authoritative voice to a FUD narrative that may be Bitcoin's largest adoption blocker.

534
00:41:20,812 --> 00:41:23,112
And I'm sure the gold bugs are very happy about this.

535
00:41:23,172 --> 00:41:39,288
So let address some of this I going to play a clip from Mitchell Askew This is I think from his X page or from his YouTube channel He from Blockwave and he wasn feeling great but there been so much quantum flood While he was sick he wanted to come out and address

536
00:41:39,288 --> 00:41:41,628
some basic points, and I think he nailed it.

537
00:41:42,208 --> 00:41:47,888
So the first point to make here is that nobody actually knows what they're talking about.

538
00:41:47,888 --> 00:41:56,408
99.9% of people, dare I say nearly 100, have no idea about quantum computing from a purely

539
00:41:56,408 --> 00:42:03,128
technical level. There are maybe a couple dozen people on the entire planet who are actually

540
00:42:03,128 --> 00:42:08,888
educated enough on computer science and have an in-depth enough understanding of the real

541
00:42:08,888 --> 00:42:17,148
technical details of quantum cryptography to have an informed opinion about its long-term impact

542
00:42:17,148 --> 00:42:23,228
as it pertains to Bitcoin and cybersecurity in general. So keep that in mind as you hear even

543
00:42:23,228 --> 00:42:27,928
myself talk about it, which I'm going to break down things from a less technical perspective and

544
00:42:27,928 --> 00:42:34,028
more from an incentive standpoint. But when you see anybody talking about quantum, understand that

545
00:42:34,028 --> 00:42:41,688
they are at best getting secondhand information. Rarely is anybody actually citing a primary source,

546
00:42:41,688 --> 00:42:45,008
let alone can they understand the primary source in depth.

547
00:42:45,248 --> 00:42:48,528
So nobody really, really knows what they're talking about.

548
00:42:48,668 --> 00:42:50,528
We're entering very abstract territory.

549
00:42:51,428 --> 00:42:54,068
The second point, and this is a little more pertinent,

550
00:42:54,208 --> 00:42:55,748
and we have some action items here,

551
00:42:56,228 --> 00:43:01,908
is not every Bitcoin address will be affected in the same way or at the same time.

552
00:43:02,428 --> 00:43:09,288
So if quantum really is this boogeyman that is effective at hijacking certain Bitcoin

553
00:43:09,288 --> 00:43:15,848
and breaking certain cryptographic keys of Bitcoin held in public keys and private keys,

554
00:43:16,508 --> 00:43:21,388
then older addresses with less developed tech are going to be vulnerable first.

555
00:43:22,028 --> 00:43:26,968
And so if you have your Bitcoin in BC1 addresses with a multi-sig, you're going to be fine.

556
00:43:27,048 --> 00:43:29,948
It's going to be older coins that are hijacked first.

557
00:43:29,948 --> 00:43:34,128
And so this isn't some overnight threat.

558
00:43:34,128 --> 00:43:39,508
you wake up and Bitcoin went to zero because all the addresses got hacked and every Bitcoin got

559
00:43:39,508 --> 00:43:45,428
stolen and it's a rogue free-for-all out there. That's not going to happen. Even if quantum is

560
00:43:45,428 --> 00:43:51,288
the threat that people make it out to be, it's going to be a gradual waterfall-like effect and

561
00:43:51,288 --> 00:43:55,508
you're going to have plenty of time to react and to upgrade to quantum-resistant addresses.

562
00:43:56,588 --> 00:44:02,988
Second, third rather, is Bitcoin mining still requires brute force at the end of the day.

563
00:44:02,988 --> 00:44:10,468
It's a proof of work system and the incentives aren't changed by an upgrade in computing power

564
00:44:10,468 --> 00:44:17,028
or computational technology. The bottleneck for Bitcoin miners is still physical energy production,

565
00:44:17,768 --> 00:44:22,748
data center infrastructure, power generation assets, land. This is the bottleneck if you

566
00:44:22,748 --> 00:44:27,388
want to attack Bitcoin, if you want to reorder blocks, if you want to double spend coins.

567
00:44:27,388 --> 00:44:33,968
And if you have all of the resources to do that, to perform a high level attack on Bitcoin

568
00:44:33,968 --> 00:44:39,768
with mining, your incentive is to just profitably and honestly mine Bitcoin.

569
00:44:40,308 --> 00:44:41,008
Think about it.

570
00:44:41,048 --> 00:44:46,468
If you have billions and billions of dollars of data center assets and Bitcoin miners,

571
00:44:46,988 --> 00:44:48,868
you're not going to reorganize the blockchain.

572
00:44:49,048 --> 00:44:50,308
You're just going to mine Bitcoin honestly.

573
00:44:50,928 --> 00:44:54,508
Satoshi himself basically said the same thing in the white paper.

574
00:44:54,508 --> 00:44:58,348
I'm paraphrasing here, but he said, if someone has enough computing power to attack Bitcoin,

575
00:44:58,708 --> 00:45:00,088
they'd be better off mining, honestly.

576
00:45:00,628 --> 00:45:06,108
And the incentives for that will not change, even if quantum computing really takes off.

577
00:45:12,608 --> 00:45:16,088
All right, well, coming up, I've got your boost, a production note you need to hear,

578
00:45:16,228 --> 00:45:18,428
some great updates, and a final clip of the week.

579
00:45:24,508 --> 00:45:27,408
But you can support the show just by doing what you do.

580
00:45:27,468 --> 00:45:30,848
If you're ready to stack sats on River, well, I've got a link in the show notes.

581
00:45:30,908 --> 00:45:33,008
It's one of the best ways to stack sats in the U.S.

582
00:45:33,148 --> 00:45:34,468
Click that link, support the show.

583
00:45:34,828 --> 00:45:38,268
If you're all about self-custody and you want to go to and from your own wallets,

584
00:45:38,808 --> 00:45:41,008
the Bitcoin Well, they're available in the U.S. and Canada.

585
00:45:41,408 --> 00:45:42,328
They don't host a wallet.

586
00:45:42,788 --> 00:45:45,568
Now, if it's time to spend some sats and you've got some on Lightning,

587
00:45:45,688 --> 00:45:50,148
you can go from Lightning sats to a Bitcoin gift card in just seconds.

588
00:45:50,148 --> 00:45:53,488
They have hundreds of different gift cards out there for like Amazon and Home Depot

589
00:45:53,488 --> 00:45:54,408
and all the different stores.

590
00:45:54,508 --> 00:45:58,088
sats to gift card in just seconds you can even sign in with your lightning credentials

591
00:45:58,088 --> 00:46:03,768
now passively stacking sats is one of the best options available to us and fold makes that easy

592
00:46:03,768 --> 00:46:07,708
just while paying bills and whatnot the fold card got a link to that and if it's time to get access

593
00:46:07,708 --> 00:46:13,388
to your bitcoin value without selling it oh that's where salt lending comes in you can support the

594
00:46:13,388 --> 00:46:15,988
just by doing what you do click those links in the show notes

595
00:46:24,508 --> 00:46:45,848
Oh, and we do have some boost to get into this week.

596
00:46:45,968 --> 00:46:47,008
Thank you, everybody.

597
00:46:47,208 --> 00:46:50,368
But we don't have a baller booster this week.

598
00:46:51,128 --> 00:46:54,448
Oh, that's okay.

599
00:46:54,508 --> 00:46:56,408
It's okay. We move on, though. We move on.

600
00:46:56,508 --> 00:46:59,028
Paranoid Coder comes in with 2,000 sats.

601
00:47:00,108 --> 00:47:02,248
Betting the four-year cycle will never die.

602
00:47:02,868 --> 00:47:04,748
Oh, betting on it never did me any good, he says.

603
00:47:04,828 --> 00:47:05,128
Oh, okay.

604
00:47:06,108 --> 00:47:07,368
I read that the other way.

605
00:47:07,928 --> 00:47:08,948
DCA and put it away.

606
00:47:09,048 --> 00:47:10,508
Now that I agreed with, Paranoid.

607
00:47:11,088 --> 00:47:12,368
Thank you for the boost.

608
00:47:12,928 --> 00:47:16,428
Nakamoto 6102 is here with 3,500 sats.

609
00:47:16,728 --> 00:47:19,088
I like you. You're a hot ticket.

610
00:47:19,328 --> 00:47:20,288
I don't think it is one or the other.

611
00:47:20,288 --> 00:47:22,828
Bitcoin, having, or the four-year cycle will impact supply,

612
00:47:22,968 --> 00:47:24,188
and therefore it impacts price.

613
00:47:24,508 --> 00:47:27,368
Liquidity is the dominant driver of price right now, in my opinion.

614
00:47:27,488 --> 00:47:30,928
If people or businesses don't have cash to invest, the price remains low.

615
00:47:31,208 --> 00:47:31,908
Thanks for the value.

616
00:47:32,368 --> 00:47:33,148
Nakamoto, that's it.

617
00:47:33,228 --> 00:47:34,188
Retail's tapped out.

618
00:47:34,788 --> 00:47:39,148
And businesses, small businesses who have been big buyers, they're tight right now.

619
00:47:39,668 --> 00:47:44,368
And so it's just big institutions or ETFs that are buying on behalf of their customers.

620
00:47:44,888 --> 00:47:46,568
It is about the liquidity, isn't it?

621
00:47:47,188 --> 00:47:48,068
And yeah.

622
00:47:48,568 --> 00:47:51,688
Yeah, when you're buying more than supply anyways, I don't know if...

623
00:47:51,688 --> 00:47:53,348
I mean, definitely less supply makes a difference.

624
00:47:53,348 --> 00:47:55,488
So I do think having makes a difference.

625
00:47:56,188 --> 00:47:57,208
It's a good boost, Nakamoto.

626
00:47:57,328 --> 00:47:57,848
Thank you.

627
00:47:58,208 --> 00:48:00,668
Pabbs here with 2,000 sats.

628
00:48:01,788 --> 00:48:04,908
Economics is a political issue, arguably the main political issue.

629
00:48:05,328 --> 00:48:12,048
Treating it as a technical problem separated from politics is an ideological strategy deployed with particular strength since the 1980s.

630
00:48:12,168 --> 00:48:18,928
You can find a great academic account of this fact in Thinking Like an Economist by Elizabeth Pop Berman.

631
00:48:19,388 --> 00:48:28,508
Granted, it's bigger than a partisan issue, especially when the only two alternatives are capitalism is more important than democracy versus there are equally important things like in the U.S.

632
00:48:29,168 --> 00:48:31,308
Honestly, he says it's the whole West, honestly.

633
00:48:31,728 --> 00:48:35,968
So no need to apologize when you bring up a broader political context to discuss economic news.

634
00:48:36,268 --> 00:48:36,688
Keep it up.

635
00:48:37,268 --> 00:48:40,348
That is a very enlightened way of looking at it, Pap.

636
00:48:40,408 --> 00:48:40,748
Thank you.

637
00:48:41,368 --> 00:48:44,468
Hybrid Sarcasms here with 10,000 sats.

638
00:48:45,768 --> 00:48:47,568
It's over 9,000.

639
00:48:47,568 --> 00:48:50,028
I just bought the dip at $89,000.

640
00:48:50,268 --> 00:48:51,188
Love all the Twib content.

641
00:48:51,868 --> 00:48:53,448
Now, take the rest of the holidays off.

642
00:48:53,588 --> 00:48:54,088
Yes, sir.

643
00:48:54,448 --> 00:48:55,028
Yes, sir.

644
00:48:55,468 --> 00:48:56,728
Fun will now commence.

645
00:48:56,868 --> 00:48:58,948
That's my plan, unless something crazy happens.

646
00:48:59,428 --> 00:49:00,168
That is my plan.

647
00:49:00,448 --> 00:49:01,248
Thank you for the boost.

648
00:49:01,408 --> 00:49:02,448
Nice to hear from you, hybrid.

649
00:49:03,508 --> 00:49:08,388
Hey, Adversary 17 is here with 8,192 sats.

650
00:49:08,508 --> 00:49:09,308
This is the way.

651
00:49:10,008 --> 00:49:11,888
Plus one for the Bitcoin dad if he's interested.

652
00:49:12,188 --> 00:49:12,948
I agree.

653
00:49:13,428 --> 00:49:13,968
Thank you.

654
00:49:14,048 --> 00:49:15,088
You're so boost.

655
00:49:15,448 --> 00:49:16,568
Nice to hear from you, adversaries.

656
00:49:17,468 --> 00:49:21,188
VC Avalo is here with 4,447 sats.

657
00:49:22,628 --> 00:49:23,068
Vinny.

658
00:49:23,288 --> 00:49:23,668
Oh, okay.

659
00:49:24,008 --> 00:49:27,108
I have a fully self-hosted Lightning address now at my own domain.

660
00:49:27,708 --> 00:49:30,648
I achieved this with LN bits on a public VPS,

661
00:49:30,768 --> 00:49:32,988
and then I tunneled to my umbral node on my LAN.

662
00:49:33,348 --> 00:49:36,508
It is a pain in the ass, but it does work, and it makes me happy.

663
00:49:37,068 --> 00:49:39,328
The externally reachable IP is the key.

664
00:49:39,808 --> 00:49:41,888
You can DM me on Noster if you want.

665
00:49:42,428 --> 00:49:43,268
Sats for the holidays.

666
00:49:43,488 --> 00:49:44,928
Back in the paper wallet days.

667
00:49:45,068 --> 00:49:45,748
Oh, yeah.

668
00:49:46,568 --> 00:49:47,568
Yeah, I did some paper wallets.

669
00:49:47,848 --> 00:49:51,288
I printed out some for my niece and nephews as Bitcoin stocking stuffers.

670
00:49:51,688 --> 00:49:56,568
Since then, I've swept them to hardware cold wallets, but I kept sliding more sats in every year.

671
00:49:56,968 --> 00:50:00,908
Every year, I helped their parents get a little closer to legit self-custody without my involvement.

672
00:50:01,348 --> 00:50:05,468
Started with me as a custodian, and my end goal is being self-sovereign with my extended family.

673
00:50:06,128 --> 00:50:08,508
That's a great idea. Give them a little hardware starter pack, huh?

674
00:50:09,848 --> 00:50:11,608
The Bitcoin Uncle Club.

675
00:50:11,948 --> 00:50:12,388
Yes.

676
00:50:12,928 --> 00:50:13,568
Thank you, VC.

677
00:50:14,168 --> 00:50:16,088
I like that story a lot.

678
00:50:16,568 --> 00:50:17,328
Thank you for sharing.

679
00:50:18,248 --> 00:50:22,288
Retro Gear is here with 5,542 sats.

680
00:50:22,428 --> 00:50:24,608
Oh my God, this drawer is filled with fruit loops.

681
00:50:24,808 --> 00:50:30,068
I am boosting from Fountain with my AlbiHub connected via Noster Wallet Connect.

682
00:50:30,668 --> 00:50:31,588
Yeah, isn't that great?

683
00:50:31,848 --> 00:50:32,988
It's great to see Fountain add that.

684
00:50:33,468 --> 00:50:36,988
Retax implications for spending in CoinJar MasterCard set up in Australia.

685
00:50:37,468 --> 00:50:39,428
They report the tax to the tax office directly,

686
00:50:39,428 --> 00:50:42,148
or you can easily download transaction reports to your accountant.

687
00:50:42,588 --> 00:50:46,428
I also got my node set up and dialed in now with ClearNet and Tor working smooth.

688
00:50:46,568 --> 00:50:47,908
with Bitcoin Explorer to monitor it.

689
00:50:48,028 --> 00:50:48,408
Ha ha!

690
00:50:49,008 --> 00:50:50,148
Well done, sir.

691
00:50:50,708 --> 00:50:51,548
I'm going to get my act together

692
00:50:51,548 --> 00:50:53,468
and put the compose file on GitHub and report back.

693
00:50:53,848 --> 00:50:55,008
It gets easier every day.

694
00:50:55,508 --> 00:50:56,108
Stack sats.

695
00:50:56,588 --> 00:50:57,168
Make it so.

696
00:50:57,268 --> 00:50:58,068
That is solid.

697
00:50:58,368 --> 00:50:59,788
Thank you very much for that boost.

698
00:51:00,248 --> 00:51:01,068
I love to hear it.

699
00:51:01,368 --> 00:51:02,568
Good work on the node too, Retro.

700
00:51:03,048 --> 00:51:04,748
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

701
00:51:05,668 --> 00:51:07,348
2,222 sats.

702
00:51:07,728 --> 00:51:09,408
The four-year cycle is no longer relevant

703
00:51:09,408 --> 00:51:11,168
and I think it's a positive for Bitcoin.

704
00:51:11,668 --> 00:51:12,868
The excessive selling by the whales

705
00:51:12,868 --> 00:51:13,768
is starting to make me think

706
00:51:13,768 --> 00:51:15,588
there is something incoming that we don't know about.

707
00:51:15,588 --> 00:51:18,448
regulatory or otherwise, maybe regarding custody or something.

708
00:51:19,168 --> 00:51:21,148
Ooh, but how would they know that we don't know?

709
00:51:21,228 --> 00:51:24,108
By that many of them, you'd think by now we'd hear something, right?

710
00:51:25,108 --> 00:51:28,588
You know, I could be persuaded to believe that these OGs have been around long enough

711
00:51:28,588 --> 00:51:34,448
that they just instinctively lean into the four-year cycle and almost create it by will.

712
00:51:34,448 --> 00:51:36,048
You know what I mean?

713
00:51:36,168 --> 00:51:36,928
Ace, it's possible.

714
00:51:37,328 --> 00:51:38,048
Thank you for the boost.

715
00:51:38,648 --> 00:51:42,148
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with a row of ducks.

716
00:51:42,148 --> 00:51:45,888
And I think we should throw a little McDuck in there.

717
00:51:45,948 --> 00:51:47,588
Quacka, wacka, it's a treasure.

718
00:51:48,048 --> 00:51:48,528
Yippee!

719
00:51:48,648 --> 00:51:49,088
That's fine.

720
00:51:49,628 --> 00:51:51,948
Yes, my nephew did complete his Sats quest.

721
00:51:52,108 --> 00:51:54,048
I made it easy for him by loading up a lightning wall

722
00:51:54,048 --> 00:51:56,968
and telling him about a bar where he lives that is accepting Sats.

723
00:51:57,148 --> 00:52:02,188
I told him he should take some friends and shout them a drink with the Sats

724
00:52:02,188 --> 00:52:06,388
and offered some additional cold-stored Sats as a reward once his quest was completed.

725
00:52:06,908 --> 00:52:08,108
Yes, the incentives work.

726
00:52:08,368 --> 00:52:09,268
Ha, ha, ha!

727
00:52:09,528 --> 00:52:11,068
That is very clever.

728
00:52:11,068 --> 00:52:12,668
I like that Kiwi

729
00:52:12,668 --> 00:52:13,308
thank you

730
00:52:13,308 --> 00:52:18,528
Gene Beans here with a row of ducks

731
00:52:18,528 --> 00:52:19,588
three things

732
00:52:19,588 --> 00:52:20,068
number one

733
00:52:20,068 --> 00:52:20,868
the cat mess

734
00:52:20,868 --> 00:52:22,488
boy that is really something else

735
00:52:22,488 --> 00:52:24,688
and I agree that it's just illogical

736
00:52:24,688 --> 00:52:25,288
number two

737
00:52:25,288 --> 00:52:26,848
I did move back to Koron Umbral

738
00:52:26,848 --> 00:52:27,888
without issue

739
00:52:27,888 --> 00:52:28,468
oh good

740
00:52:28,468 --> 00:52:29,428
okay

741
00:52:29,428 --> 00:52:30,848
he says goodbye nuts

742
00:52:30,848 --> 00:52:31,448
number three

743
00:52:31,448 --> 00:52:32,608
it's interesting testing

744
00:52:32,608 --> 00:52:34,228
Nostra Wallach Connect stuff with Fountain

745
00:52:34,228 --> 00:52:35,708
I'm in Cast-O-Matic now

746
00:52:35,708 --> 00:52:36,608
but curious if you

747
00:52:36,608 --> 00:52:37,948
if you see proper metadata

748
00:52:37,948 --> 00:52:38,848
from my Fountain Boost

749
00:52:38,848 --> 00:52:40,368
Fountain having to bridge

750
00:52:40,368 --> 00:52:42,248
Nostra Wallet Connect to KeySend

751
00:52:42,248 --> 00:52:44,168
makes stuff appear different in my wallet than I'm used to.

752
00:52:44,688 --> 00:52:46,408
Yes, so Gene is tipped

753
00:52:46,408 --> 00:52:48,268
in on the latest and greatest.

754
00:52:48,948 --> 00:52:50,248
So Fountain has added

755
00:52:50,248 --> 00:52:52,508
Nostra Wallet Connect, so you don't have to use

756
00:52:52,508 --> 00:52:54,268
Fountain's hosted wallet. You could use your

757
00:52:54,268 --> 00:52:55,708
AlbiHub. However,

758
00:52:56,548 --> 00:52:58,188
Nostra Wallet Connect wallets

759
00:52:58,188 --> 00:53:00,348
only support LN address, and LN

760
00:53:00,348 --> 00:53:02,168
address does not support all of the metadata

761
00:53:02,168 --> 00:53:04,188
necessary for boosts yet.

762
00:53:04,808 --> 00:53:06,468
So Fountain has created essentially

763
00:53:06,468 --> 00:53:08,248
a bridge that

764
00:53:08,248 --> 00:53:10,668
bridges LNBoost to KeysendBoost.

765
00:53:10,768 --> 00:53:12,108
And they banged it together really quick.

766
00:53:12,188 --> 00:53:12,988
It's really awesome.

767
00:53:13,408 --> 00:53:14,688
It's not a forever solution,

768
00:53:14,828 --> 00:53:16,008
but really the forever solution

769
00:53:16,008 --> 00:53:17,888
is getting all of the metadata stuff

770
00:53:17,888 --> 00:53:18,928
we needed around LN address

771
00:53:18,928 --> 00:53:20,308
because that's really the direction we've got to go.

772
00:53:20,848 --> 00:53:22,788
But we do need to know your name,

773
00:53:22,908 --> 00:53:23,848
the amount you sent,

774
00:53:23,928 --> 00:53:25,368
the episode you boosted,

775
00:53:25,428 --> 00:53:26,408
your message.

776
00:53:27,088 --> 00:53:28,108
If you're listening out there

777
00:53:28,108 --> 00:53:29,008
and podcasting 2.0

778
00:53:29,008 --> 00:53:30,428
and you think you could get boosts

779
00:53:30,428 --> 00:53:31,108
and do a boost segment

780
00:53:31,108 --> 00:53:32,108
without people's names,

781
00:53:32,228 --> 00:53:33,728
the total amounts they sent in the message,

782
00:53:34,048 --> 00:53:35,728
I don't know what the hell you're smoking.

783
00:53:35,728 --> 00:53:38,748
your boosts are going to drop off a cliff

784
00:53:38,748 --> 00:53:40,428
the moment you stop giving out total amounts,

785
00:53:40,548 --> 00:53:41,488
names, and messages.

786
00:53:41,908 --> 00:53:43,648
I don't know if you don't understand how this works.

787
00:53:44,568 --> 00:53:45,248
Figure it out.

788
00:53:45,568 --> 00:53:46,948
So yes, we need to do LN address,

789
00:53:47,228 --> 00:53:49,188
but yes, we've got to have working metadata.

790
00:53:49,748 --> 00:53:51,908
And so what Oscar has done over at Fountain

791
00:53:51,908 --> 00:53:55,268
is come up with a decent little bridge for the moment,

792
00:53:55,388 --> 00:53:57,328
but it's kind of a Fountain exclusive thing.

793
00:53:57,688 --> 00:53:58,088
Thanks, Gene.

794
00:53:58,808 --> 00:53:59,408
Good conversation.

795
00:54:00,048 --> 00:54:02,948
Scuft came in with 11,245 sats.

796
00:54:03,028 --> 00:54:03,248
Hey!

797
00:54:03,888 --> 00:54:05,448
Nuclear launch detected.

798
00:54:05,448 --> 00:54:07,888
That's darn near baller, unfortunately, but I appreciate it, Scuffed.

799
00:54:08,248 --> 00:54:10,028
Boosting from Fountain via my Alleyhub.

800
00:54:10,108 --> 00:54:11,828
Hey, I love it, love it, love it.

801
00:54:12,108 --> 00:54:13,708
This was my number one issue I had with Fountain.

802
00:54:14,328 --> 00:54:14,888
All right.

803
00:54:15,288 --> 00:54:17,168
As far as the JV mining pool, tell me more.

804
00:54:17,368 --> 00:54:17,868
I'm all in.

805
00:54:17,928 --> 00:54:19,068
My single bid axe awaits.

806
00:54:19,528 --> 00:54:22,168
And for gifting Bitcoin this year, I'm using Riverlinks.

807
00:54:22,248 --> 00:54:23,808
They give you a QR code to send.

808
00:54:24,128 --> 00:54:26,188
Or you could print out a physical piece of paper and put it in a card.

809
00:54:26,988 --> 00:54:28,288
That's a great point.

810
00:54:29,148 --> 00:54:32,068
The QR code, you could print it out, make it physical, put it in a card.

811
00:54:33,428 --> 00:54:33,708
Scuffed!

812
00:54:34,588 --> 00:54:34,948
Oh!

813
00:54:36,068 --> 00:54:37,508
I think you just tipped the scale for me.

814
00:54:37,548 --> 00:54:38,768
I hadn't even thought about that.

815
00:54:38,848 --> 00:54:41,648
I was totally visualizing just sending a link to their phone,

816
00:54:42,048 --> 00:54:45,188
which is just not as cool as being able to give them something on Christmas.

817
00:54:45,748 --> 00:54:46,488
Thank you, Scuffed.

818
00:54:46,548 --> 00:54:47,108
Great boost, too.

819
00:54:47,128 --> 00:54:47,868
I really appreciate that.

820
00:54:48,648 --> 00:54:51,708
Hodler's here with Oroa Ducks.

821
00:54:51,828 --> 00:54:53,468
This old duck still got it.

822
00:54:53,468 --> 00:54:55,628
Hey, Chris, regarding the four-year cycle,

823
00:54:55,748 --> 00:54:58,968
to me, it would be great to have a couple more years to stack cheap recats.

824
00:55:00,428 --> 00:55:02,068
I was thinking that before the show.

825
00:55:02,368 --> 00:55:02,828
I was.

826
00:55:02,848 --> 00:55:04,868
I was thinking, you know, I mean, it would be nice.

827
00:55:04,868 --> 00:55:08,368
Bitcoin pumping is fun, but it also means fewer sats for the stackers.

828
00:55:08,528 --> 00:55:09,968
Yeah, he says thanks for the value.

829
00:55:10,348 --> 00:55:11,348
Thank you for the boost.

830
00:55:15,568 --> 00:55:18,468
Thank you everybody who boosts in, even those of you who boosts.

831
00:55:18,544 --> 00:55:20,564
Oh, the 2000 sat cutoff for time.

832
00:55:20,704 --> 00:55:21,324
Appreciate you.

833
00:55:21,404 --> 00:55:22,904
And I read them and save them forever.

834
00:55:22,964 --> 00:55:25,824
And I hold them preciously because I love them for so much.

835
00:55:26,124 --> 00:55:30,424
And I also really appreciate everybody who stream sets as you listen.

836
00:55:30,544 --> 00:55:31,344
21 of you.

837
00:55:31,424 --> 00:55:31,744
Nope, nope.

838
00:55:31,844 --> 00:55:32,784
42 of you.

839
00:55:33,664 --> 00:55:36,464
42 of you collectively stacked 48.

840
00:55:36,784 --> 00:55:39,304
Jeez, my brain is just totally broken.

841
00:55:39,864 --> 00:55:42,744
42 of you collectively stacked 58,000.

842
00:55:43,204 --> 00:55:44,064
36 sats.

843
00:55:44,344 --> 00:55:45,404
I don't know where my head's at.

844
00:55:46,044 --> 00:55:47,304
I think it's, I don't know.

845
00:55:47,844 --> 00:55:48,524
I think I need to lay down.

846
00:55:48,544 --> 00:55:57,204
When you combine that with our boosters, we stacked 119,352 sets for our final episode of the year.

847
00:56:02,184 --> 00:56:07,864
Now, if you'd like to send some value my way as a nice send off for 2025, please send in a boost.

848
00:56:08,044 --> 00:56:10,604
You'll be kicking off my first episode in 2026.

849
00:56:10,744 --> 00:56:14,584
It'd be great to come into the new year with a banger boost segment.

850
00:56:14,584 --> 00:56:18,704
So please do boost in, share your thoughts on the biggest story in Bitcoin this year.

851
00:56:18,844 --> 00:56:21,944
What are your thoughts on quantum and any holiday Bitcoin stories?

852
00:56:22,084 --> 00:56:24,704
I would love to hear those.

853
00:56:25,184 --> 00:56:27,024
So let's make it a banger for the new year.

854
00:56:27,144 --> 00:56:33,884
And thank you, everybody who supports this, either with a boost or the membership through the Fountain app or, of course, Jupiter Party.

855
00:56:44,584 --> 00:56:49,484
Now, I want to get into a couple of things that didn't quite fit in the top of the show, but we should really be keeping an eye on.

856
00:56:50,064 --> 00:56:55,944
And one of these is a hanging chad over the entire market, including Bitcoin, besides the yen carry trade.

857
00:56:56,464 --> 00:57:04,924
And it's the concern of the private credit bubble, a term that gets used a lot, but probably has never really been fully explained.

858
00:57:04,924 --> 00:57:10,864
And it is indeed something to at least keep an eye on because it's one of these problems.

859
00:57:10,984 --> 00:57:14,344
It's getting so big, it could really blow up in all of our faces.

860
00:57:14,584 --> 00:57:26,304
The investors and economists are warning about a piece of the financial system that could pose a risk, potentially similar in ways to the housing crash that preceded the financial crisis in 2008.

861
00:57:26,544 --> 00:57:35,624
It's part of what's been called the shadow banking system, the private credit market, an alternative type of lending to companies that doesn't involve traditional banks.

862
00:57:35,624 --> 00:57:43,804
We asked economics correspondent Paul Solman to explain how it works, what's at stake and why alarm bells are sounding in some quarters.

863
00:57:44,584 --> 00:57:46,684
Bought an aftermarket car part in recent years.

864
00:57:47,084 --> 00:57:49,424
Good chance it came from First Brands.

865
00:57:49,824 --> 00:57:56,504
First Brands was a large supplier of auto parts, so things like wiper blades, spark plugs.

866
00:57:56,584 --> 00:58:03,524
Over a decade, the company borrowed heavily to grow, gobbling up 20 companies, employing 25,000 people.

867
00:58:04,224 --> 00:58:05,784
Until this fall, that is.

868
00:58:06,324 --> 00:58:11,044
The lenders had become a bit concerned about some of the financial goings-on at the company

869
00:58:11,044 --> 00:58:14,484
and requested some extra information, which First Brands couldn't provide.

870
00:58:14,584 --> 00:58:17,144
What happened went bust.

871
00:58:17,904 --> 00:58:19,044
And who were its lenders?

872
00:58:19,604 --> 00:58:22,024
Many came from the world of private credit,

873
00:58:22,444 --> 00:58:26,504
a part of the global financial system that's exploded in recent years

874
00:58:26,504 --> 00:58:30,524
and has some key players in finance rattled.

875
00:58:31,164 --> 00:58:33,804
I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach,

876
00:58:34,304 --> 00:58:35,064
there'll probably be more.

877
00:58:35,864 --> 00:58:39,164
And so everyone should be forewarned on this one.

878
00:58:39,484 --> 00:58:42,424
One such roach, first brands.

879
00:58:43,004 --> 00:58:45,304
I've been saying this for probably two years now,

880
00:58:45,704 --> 00:58:50,884
that the next big crisis in the financial markets is going to be private credit.

881
00:58:51,044 --> 00:58:54,304
Okay, but what exactly is private credit?

882
00:58:54,864 --> 00:58:59,544
Private credit is just lending by non-banks, financial institutions like pension funds,

883
00:58:59,704 --> 00:59:03,604
insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, but not going through the banking system,

884
00:59:03,764 --> 00:59:05,024
thus the word private.

885
00:59:05,244 --> 00:59:06,644
It's grown very rapidly.

886
00:59:06,984 --> 00:59:09,884
It's now a sizable player in the financial system.

887
00:59:09,884 --> 00:59:16,264
Growing from a $40 billion market in the year 2000 to nearly $2 trillion today.

888
00:59:16,504 --> 00:59:16,784
What?

889
00:59:16,784 --> 00:59:42,564
The reason for that growth is that after the Great Recession, regulators realized that large financial institutions had been really exposed to making relatively risky bets without having enough of a backstop internally in the form of capital that they held that was available for the bank to draw down on in case some of those bets went sour.

890
00:59:42,564 --> 00:59:43,664
You know, collateral.

891
00:59:43,984 --> 00:59:45,924
They needed to have more collateral.

892
00:59:46,444 --> 00:59:47,364
But the problem is,

893
00:59:47,504 --> 00:59:49,104
is a lot of times

894
00:59:49,104 --> 00:59:50,004
what happens with regulation,

895
00:59:50,604 --> 00:59:51,984
they try to address one problem

896
00:59:51,984 --> 00:59:53,484
and they create another problem.

897
00:59:53,564 --> 00:59:54,244
And now we have

898
00:59:54,244 --> 00:59:55,664
this private credit issue.

899
00:59:56,144 --> 00:59:57,864
Well, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson,

900
00:59:58,144 --> 00:59:59,064
he has a fix.

901
00:59:59,284 --> 01:00:00,044
It's really simple.

902
01:00:00,624 --> 01:00:20,145
If you just loosen the rules for the big banks again well that business will float from private credit back to the too institutions What could go wrong These 2008 2009 2010 financial rules were too tight They have hamstrung the American financial

903
01:00:20,145 --> 01:00:26,125
system. It was time for a change. We are going to be safe, smart, and sound in terms of our

904
01:00:26,125 --> 01:00:33,485
deregulation, but we have to take the financial system out of the straitjacket. This substantial

905
01:00:33,485 --> 01:00:39,605
increase in private credit, which is outside of the regulated banking system, that tells me that

906
01:00:39,605 --> 01:00:45,325
the regulated system is too constrained and has not been able to compete with those who aren't

907
01:00:45,325 --> 01:00:52,265
regulated. So we're leveling the playing field. And I believe that we can do that in a way that

908
01:00:52,265 --> 01:00:57,285
creates trillions of dollars in credit for this very strong economy we're going to see,

909
01:00:57,505 --> 01:00:58,985
and it will be non-inflationary.

910
01:00:59,085 --> 01:00:59,905
Secretary, let me move on.

911
01:01:00,445 --> 01:01:05,705
Let's move on ourselves because the support for the AI pump is building.

912
01:01:07,705 --> 01:01:08,945
Here it comes.

913
01:01:11,005 --> 01:01:12,705
Get the money printer going.

914
01:01:12,705 --> 01:01:26,705
the white house ai and cryptozar david sacks went on fox business to get the word out to everybody

915
01:01:26,705 --> 01:01:33,845
the money is coming to support the ai pump in the form of quote hundreds of billions of dollars

916
01:01:33,845 --> 01:01:39,485
no like i mean no doubt not taken from revenue but taken from debt and printed there's a big

917
01:01:39,485 --> 01:01:43,785
build-out going on right now. Hundreds of billions of dollars are going into infrastructure, and it's

918
01:01:43,785 --> 01:01:49,765
projected to grow to even potentially a trillion dollars a year of CapEx. A trillion dollars in

919
01:01:49,765 --> 01:01:54,165
infrastructure. And I think the key point here is that this is benefiting the entire economy. I think

920
01:01:54,165 --> 01:01:59,585
there's a little bit of a misperception that this AI boom only benefits software developers or

921
01:01:59,585 --> 01:02:04,265
software companies in Silicon Valley or so-called tech bros. What we're actually seeing is a huge

922
01:02:04,265 --> 01:02:07,965
boom that's benefiting construction workers. The Wall Street Journal had a good story on this just

923
01:02:07,965 --> 01:02:12,545
last week, that the wages of construction workers are up 30 percent because this infrastructure

924
01:02:12,545 --> 01:02:17,725
build out is data centers, but it's also energy production. It's gas, it's fracking, it's nuclear,

925
01:02:17,945 --> 01:02:22,425
all the above. Thanks to President Trump's policy, pro-energy policies of drill, baby,

926
01:02:22,425 --> 01:02:26,325
drill. So we're seeing this huge infrastructure build. So in other words, the government's all

927
01:02:26,325 --> 01:02:32,685
behind this infrastructure build out and go spend your money in 2026. The pump support is deploying.

928
01:02:33,525 --> 01:02:37,445
Now, I don't play many of these these days, but well, this was a fun moment. Michael Saylor,

929
01:02:37,445 --> 01:02:41,165
he was on Sky News and they were in the Middle East.

930
01:02:41,705 --> 01:02:44,805
And there's a lot of talk about some big investments over there.

931
01:02:44,925 --> 01:02:49,925
And the reporter seems to be assigned to the event and wants to know what's going on.

932
01:02:49,985 --> 01:02:51,765
Where is the fire for this smoke?

933
01:02:51,965 --> 01:02:53,845
And I just enjoyed this clip.

934
01:02:53,925 --> 01:02:57,925
That's why really why I wanted to play it, because the thing about Michael Saylor in

935
01:02:57,925 --> 01:03:03,385
this interview is he says everything with the confidence of someone who's already seen

936
01:03:03,385 --> 01:03:03,825
the ending.

937
01:03:04,825 --> 01:03:05,925
Let's do this first.

938
01:03:05,925 --> 01:03:14,905
please first answer that comes to mind. All right. Bitcoin at one million dollar inevitable or

939
01:03:14,905 --> 01:03:22,065
impossible? Inevitable. When? Probably within a decade. So in 10 years, gold in 20 years,

940
01:03:22,445 --> 01:03:29,365
relic or still relevant? I think it will be it'll be relevant, but marginalized. It won't grow as

941
01:03:29,365 --> 01:03:34,065
fast as Bitcoin will grow. Bitcoin will grow faster. Who's going to be the next safe haven?

942
01:03:34,065 --> 01:03:36,165
Bitcoin or gold?

943
01:03:36,845 --> 01:03:40,905
Because Bitcoin was once seen as safe haven.

944
01:03:41,465 --> 01:03:46,945
I expect Bitcoin to emerge as the dominant digital monetary network in the world.

945
01:03:47,145 --> 01:03:49,565
And it is the world's reserve capital.

946
01:03:49,785 --> 01:03:56,205
So I think it'll grow from the $2 trillion to $20 trillion to $200 trillion over the next 20 to 30 years.

947
01:03:56,385 --> 01:03:58,085
I don't think gold will do that.

948
01:03:58,185 --> 01:04:01,085
I think that Bitcoin will be 10x bigger than gold.

949
01:04:04,065 --> 01:04:19,645
All right, it is that time of the show.

950
01:04:20,185 --> 01:04:23,825
It's time for our final clip of the week.

951
01:04:24,365 --> 01:04:25,965
And this is an interesting one.

952
01:04:27,605 --> 01:04:33,145
I thought we should hear from somebody who's been involved with some of these OG whales selling.

953
01:04:33,145 --> 01:04:38,325
And I think Natalie Burnell had the same idea. She sat down with Matthew McClick, I think

954
01:04:38,325 --> 01:04:42,785
is how you might say his name. He's the head of the Bespoke Group, which is a multifamily

955
01:04:42,785 --> 01:04:48,045
office that advises entrepreneurs and affluent families, aka Bitcoiners, on how to manage

956
01:04:48,045 --> 01:05:01,387
their wealth And some of whom are these very whales that we been talking about that are selling recently And he shares some insights as to why they have been selling But also for those humble stackers of us out there

957
01:05:02,027 --> 01:05:04,387
I think he also tells a bit of a tale of caution.

958
01:05:04,687 --> 01:05:07,047
You know, some of us feel like we missed out on our moment

959
01:05:07,047 --> 01:05:09,987
to stack a bunch of coins for super, super cheap,

960
01:05:10,027 --> 01:05:11,547
and it would have totally changed our lives

961
01:05:11,547 --> 01:05:13,987
if we just hadn't sold our big stack, in my case, right?

962
01:05:14,507 --> 01:05:16,727
We would be to the moon rich these days.

963
01:05:16,727 --> 01:05:25,327
But actually, it may turn out that just patiently and humbly stacking sats is the best thing for you and your family.

964
01:05:25,867 --> 01:05:27,107
And again, they've already won.

965
01:05:27,187 --> 01:05:28,007
They realize that they've won.

966
01:05:28,247 --> 01:05:32,807
And they see now a very deep demand market for it.

967
01:05:32,867 --> 01:05:36,247
And so now the market can absorb a lot more coins than it's ever been able to absorb before.

968
01:05:36,307 --> 01:05:37,287
And barely move the price.

969
01:05:37,387 --> 01:05:38,187
And barely move the price.

970
01:05:38,307 --> 01:05:45,207
I mean, it might move it inside of a day, but the selling pressure is just not that great.

971
01:05:45,207 --> 01:05:53,727
So when we, you know, our clients are some of the clients that are selling, but it's because they are selling for strategic purposes and they're selling in strategic ways.

972
01:05:54,267 --> 01:05:58,247
Because again, these are people who have accumulated a lot of Bitcoin.

973
01:05:58,587 --> 01:05:59,707
What's a lot? Like a thousand?

974
01:05:59,967 --> 01:06:03,487
Yeah. Yeah. I would say to mid hundreds to mid thousands.

975
01:06:03,687 --> 01:06:03,967
Wow.

976
01:06:04,847 --> 01:06:05,107
But.

977
01:06:05,287 --> 01:06:06,347
That would be so nice.

978
01:06:06,347 --> 01:06:29,687
Well, I mean, yes, but also be careful what you wish for because money doesn't solve problems, it changes them. And it makes people like me more relevant when you've got those kinds of problems because the problems manifest not just in tax ways, but especially in the Bitcoin space, it's not unlike the startup space.

979
01:06:29,687 --> 01:06:34,407
If you've had a successful startup and you go from zero to 100 million inside of a decade,

980
01:06:34,827 --> 01:06:36,907
that is a shocking trajectory.

981
01:06:37,767 --> 01:06:39,187
And everything in your life changes.

982
01:06:39,627 --> 01:06:40,847
Your relationships change.

983
01:06:41,847 --> 01:06:45,987
Sometimes your relationship with your faith or spiritual perspective, that changes.

984
01:06:46,287 --> 01:06:48,467
Your relationship with your community changes.

985
01:06:49,027 --> 01:06:50,627
Your politics often change.

986
01:06:50,627 --> 01:06:59,547
and your kids have seen you go from scrappy startup person or early like hardcore bitcoiner,

987
01:07:00,327 --> 01:07:06,747
you know, geeking out mining, whatever, to now they realize, wait, I get to go to the most

988
01:07:06,747 --> 01:07:12,047
exclusive private school in town. And we take these crazy vacations. We live in this beautiful

989
01:07:12,047 --> 01:07:17,707
house. Like it wasn't always like this. And so now these families, it is like having a successful

990
01:07:17,707 --> 01:07:23,947
exit after you've worked really, really hard for a decade. And it's like, that is a disorienting

991
01:07:23,947 --> 01:07:41,827
experience. Let's check in on the state of the network. I'm wrapping up at block height 928,322.

992
01:07:41,827 --> 01:07:46,947
The current U.S. price to one Bitcoin is 86,230.

993
01:07:47,267 --> 01:07:51,567
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,160 sats to one U.S. dollar.

994
01:07:52,147 --> 01:07:55,787
We're currently down 31.7 percent from our all-time high,

995
01:07:56,167 --> 01:08:01,827
$126,180 72 days ago on October 6th, 2025.

996
01:08:02,487 --> 01:08:03,267
But you knew that already.

997
01:08:04,267 --> 01:08:10,287
China cracking down on miners means our difficulty adjustment is going downwards by 1.4 percent.

998
01:08:10,287 --> 01:08:14,467
But we have 24,548 nodes on the network.

999
01:08:14,567 --> 01:08:17,067
Not bad. Could use a few more over there.

1000
01:08:17,507 --> 01:08:20,967
And Bitcoin's hash rate's still well above a Zeta hash,

1001
01:08:21,247 --> 01:08:25,707
which is maybe one of the biggest stories of 2025 that no one's talking about.

1002
01:08:26,267 --> 01:08:29,847
There's probably a few other ones out there, so boost it and tell me which ones are on your mind.

1003
01:08:30,107 --> 01:08:35,207
But the state of the Bitcoin network, regardless of China's shenanigans or anything like that,

1004
01:08:35,527 --> 01:08:37,307
still very, very strong.

1005
01:08:37,307 --> 01:08:41,507
The 90-day hash rate is at 1.07 zeta hash.

1006
01:08:41,747 --> 01:08:44,647
Just absolutely bonkers.

1007
01:08:45,107 --> 01:08:48,427
2025 has been an incredible year for the Bitcoin network.

1008
01:09:07,307 --> 01:09:14,047
Well, if you made it this far, go check out the links.

1009
01:09:14,327 --> 01:09:16,447
This week in Bitcoin.show, I got more there.

1010
01:09:16,787 --> 01:09:17,927
Things for you to follow up on.

1011
01:09:17,987 --> 01:09:19,607
Like I said, there's a chart for every scenario.

1012
01:09:20,347 --> 01:09:23,447
My goal is to really try to get you something that doesn't get extracted.

1013
01:09:24,127 --> 01:09:28,207
Extracted? Doesn't get distracted by emotions or the politics,

1014
01:09:28,287 --> 01:09:31,367
but really tries to focus on the signal so you can make the best decision for your stack,

1015
01:09:31,367 --> 01:09:33,667
for you, for your future, and your family.

1016
01:09:33,667 --> 01:09:36,167
This will be the last episode of 2025,

1017
01:09:36,167 --> 01:09:37,807
unless something crazy happens,

1018
01:09:37,807 --> 01:09:48,929
but it the last planned episode of 2025 I hope you join me again for episode 87 in January I sure I have a lot to talk about I don know if I be able to make it that long That just feels

1019
01:09:48,929 --> 01:09:55,169
impossible. If I had a predictions market for this show, the odds would be against me, but

1020
01:09:55,169 --> 01:09:59,909
we'll see. Hopefully we get a little downtime. All right, that's it for me. Thank you so much

1021
01:09:59,909 --> 01:10:03,949
for supporting this episode of This Week in Bitcoin. I'm going to leave you with a value

1022
01:10:03,949 --> 01:10:11,389
for Value Track. And this week it is Kentucky Storm by Justin Landtrip. Have a great holiday.

1023
01:10:33,949 --> 01:10:40,449
You were right, you were right, you

1024
01:10:40,449 --> 01:10:48,449
If you got some love to give, come on, let me in

1025
01:10:48,449 --> 01:10:58,609
If you got some love these days, send a little of my way

1026
01:10:58,609 --> 01:11:06,309
If I have my way

1027
01:11:06,309 --> 01:11:08,769
Love you all my days

1028
01:11:08,769 --> 01:11:12,629
If I have my way

1029
01:11:12,629 --> 01:11:16,649
If I have my way

1030
01:11:16,649 --> 01:11:18,949
Through all my days

1031
01:11:18,949 --> 01:11:22,649
If I have my way

1032
01:11:22,649 --> 01:11:26,949
Love you all my way

1033
01:11:26,949 --> 01:11:28,949
Alright

1034
01:11:28,949 --> 01:11:30,949
Alright

1035
01:11:30,949 --> 01:11:36,949
I woke up Kentucky so

1036
01:11:36,949 --> 01:11:38,949
With a scalpel in my hand and my heart on the floor

1037
01:11:38,949 --> 01:11:40,949
One firefly and a thousand tries

1038
01:11:40,949 --> 01:11:42,949
I don't think I wanna try anymore

1039
01:11:42,949 --> 01:11:46,949
But I can't stop seeing that look in your eye

1040
01:11:46,949 --> 01:11:48,949
With your hands in my hair what you said was right

1041
01:11:48,949 --> 01:11:50,949
You don't start somewhere

1042
01:11:50,949 --> 01:11:52,949
Gonna go nowhere

1043
01:11:52,949 --> 01:11:54,949
You were right

1044
01:11:54,949 --> 01:12:04,949
You arrive, you arrive, you arrive, you arrive

1045
01:12:05,949 --> 01:12:11,949
Hey I got some love to give, come on let me in

1046
01:12:15,949 --> 01:12:21,949
If you got some love these days, send us home my way

1047
01:12:21,949 --> 01:12:26,649
Send it my way

1048
01:12:26,649 --> 01:12:29,449
Send it my way

1049
01:12:29,449 --> 01:12:32,129
Send it my way

1050
01:12:46,749 --> 01:12:49,549
Only one way to be sure

1051
01:12:49,549 --> 01:12:55,309
You got love, it's to wake it up, make it up

1052
01:12:55,309 --> 01:12:59,909
And I know the change is tough

1053
01:12:59,909 --> 01:13:05,309
I feel it in my bones, closed to giving up

1054
01:13:05,309 --> 01:13:10,269
But I watch the tide roll in

1055
01:13:10,269 --> 01:13:13,329
So silly, the world's so rich

1056
01:13:13,329 --> 01:13:15,449
I can't help but cry

1057
01:13:19,549 --> 01:13:21,549
You arrived

1058
01:13:24,549 --> 01:13:26,549
You arrived

1059
01:13:27,549 --> 01:13:28,549
You

1060
01:13:30,549 --> 01:13:33,549
Hey, I got some love to give

1061
01:13:33,549 --> 01:13:36,549
Come on, let me in

1062
01:13:40,549 --> 01:13:43,549
Hey, I got some love these days

1063
01:13:44,549 --> 01:13:46,549
Come, send me your way

1064
01:13:49,549 --> 01:13:56,649
If I have my way, love through all my days

1065
01:13:56,649 --> 01:14:00,329
If I have my way

1066
01:14:00,329 --> 01:14:06,269
If I have my way through all my days

1067
01:14:06,269 --> 01:14:11,169
If I have my way

1068
01:14:11,169 --> 01:14:19,929
You're right, you are