1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:16,920
Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 125.

2
00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:23,500
My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupiterBroadcasting.com.

3
00:00:23,820 --> 00:00:28,640
Well, this has been a September to remember, and not at all what the chart sniffers told

4
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:29,400
us to expect.

5
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:37,920
But today, as I'm recording, it's a big day for macro nerds, really important day for macro nerds.

6
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:44,900
And so I need to quickly set up some context with the inflation data that came out today in the United States.

7
00:00:55,620 --> 00:00:57,400
Let's get to the inflation data.

8
00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:01,840
PCE price index month over month up 0.3.

9
00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:04,600
That's a tenth lower than expected.

10
00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,060
They were looking for something up around 0.4.

11
00:01:07,960 --> 00:01:11,280
PCE year over year, 3.4%.

12
00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,620
Nicole, that's three tenths lower than last month,

13
00:01:14,760 --> 00:01:16,660
three tenths lower than expectations.

14
00:01:17,180 --> 00:01:20,060
Now, the core PCE, XFood and Energy,

15
00:01:20,500 --> 00:01:23,420
up 0.2 on the month over month.

16
00:01:23,420 --> 00:01:25,560
That's a tenth lower than expected.

17
00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:29,620
And year over year, core PCE comes in 3%.

18
00:01:29,620 --> 00:01:31,100
That's three-tenths.

19
00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,600
Again, lower than last month, lower than expectations.

20
00:01:34,860 --> 00:01:37,920
So good, solid numbers on inflation.

21
00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:39,540
And what was the extent of that?

22
00:01:39,660 --> 00:01:41,080
Well, you see yields lower.

23
00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:42,580
You see stocks higher.

24
00:01:42,980 --> 00:01:52,800
You see the probabilities of Fed rate cut dropping to, last I looked just before I came on, 37% now for an October rate hike.

25
00:01:52,800 --> 00:02:00,480
So like they went from the mid 70s to now a 30 ish percent chance of a Fed rate rate hike just like that.

26
00:02:01,440 --> 00:02:03,1000
The market's pricing in a lower chance of just like that.

27
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,180
The bond market only half bought it, though.

28
00:02:06,240 --> 00:02:10,580
The 10 year dipped to five point two percent, but then it bounced to five twenty five.

29
00:02:10,640 --> 00:02:13,820
And it's I think it's settling around five three now.

30
00:02:14,580 --> 00:02:16,600
Thirty years still sitting in a 24 year high.

31
00:02:17,280 --> 00:02:20,100
But that's not the interesting thing.

32
00:02:20,100 --> 00:02:26,420
That is, I mean, interesting, and it is actually dominating the conversation for everybody else.

33
00:02:26,940 --> 00:02:35,600
But this PCE report that we just got, this is great for us macro nerds because it's using the revised calculation methodology.

34
00:02:36,380 --> 00:02:40,240
Yes, friends, they have made changes to the way they calculate PCE.

35
00:02:40,500 --> 00:02:43,540
Now, everybody knows this was coming because they announced it in June.

36
00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:45,220
It's been planned for a while.

37
00:02:45,220 --> 00:02:49,120
So you know how the market is when they expect something, they tend to absorb it pretty well.

38
00:02:49,120 --> 00:02:50,940
So nobody's really talking about it even.

39
00:02:51,740 --> 00:03:00,100
But in this revision, they also recalculated inflation all the way retroactively back to

40
00:03:00,100 --> 00:03:01,420
Q1 of 2021.

41
00:03:01,860 --> 00:03:06,000
So five years of inflation history just got rewritten this morning.

42
00:03:06,560 --> 00:03:10,860
And you know that's going to matter when the Fed looks at inflation data because the PCE

43
00:03:10,860 --> 00:03:13,540
metric is their favorite inflation metric.

44
00:03:13,940 --> 00:03:16,580
I'm going to have more information in the show notes if you want to learn more because

45
00:03:16,580 --> 00:03:17,580
it is kind of interesting.

46
00:03:17,580 --> 00:03:22,780
But essentially, the short version is three major categories were changed.

47
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:28,740
We did have the BEA revising the methodology for several different components within PCE.

48
00:03:29,040 --> 00:03:34,860
Legal services, they're actually moving that back to 2021 and kind of adjusting that metric,

49
00:03:35,060 --> 00:03:37,460
that different benchmark for legal services.

50
00:03:37,940 --> 00:03:41,900
Software and computer accessories has also been adjusted as well as portfolio management.

51
00:03:41,900 --> 00:03:49,880
And I think the big key is portfolio management that actually has been a driver for PCE to the upside over the last year and a half, two years or so.

52
00:03:50,040 --> 00:03:51,800
It seems like they're trying to account for that.

53
00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:56,260
So we actually did see PCE coming in lower, both on headline as well as core.

54
00:03:56,540 --> 00:03:59,380
And the real impact is going to be on the year over year statistics here.

55
00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:04,220
But headline PCE came in at 0.3%, somewhat in line with the street's expectations.

56
00:04:05,060 --> 00:04:07,480
And again, this has been known for a while.

57
00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,820
So everything's in line with expectations.

58
00:04:09,820 --> 00:04:12,520
I mean, they've been known since June, right?

59
00:04:12,660 --> 00:04:15,600
And let's just look at the timeline here for a moment.

60
00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:20,780
So the new federal chair was sworn in on May 22nd, 2026.

61
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:24,140
So he knew that this would be dropping.

62
00:04:24,860 --> 00:04:28,160
At least on paper, he knew that inflation was going to be dropping because they were

63
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,120
going to be changing the way they calculate it in September.

64
00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,500
So why did they raise rates?

65
00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:37,800
If the Fed knew that inflation, the core metric that they like to look at, would be coming

66
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:45,460
down in September, why did they raise rates? Are they playing games? I mean, what do you think? I

67
00:04:45,460 --> 00:04:50,300
really want to know, because it feels like what we just got is a game here. Warsh gets to have a

68
00:04:50,300 --> 00:04:55,020
performative hike that gets under his belt. And now no one's talking about Warsh being a Trump

69
00:04:55,020 --> 00:04:59,220
puppet anymore. That narrative is completely gone. And for the most part, the White House really

70
00:04:59,220 --> 00:05:02,420
hasn't been too hostile about it. Trump said, oh, you know, rates should be down. Rates should be

71
00:05:02,420 --> 00:05:07,340
down. We should have the lowest rates in the world. Right. But he hasn't he hasn't gone to war like he

72
00:05:07,340 --> 00:05:11,660
did with J-PAL. Maybe that's because the White House also knew the PCE numbers would be coming

73
00:05:11,660 --> 00:05:16,880
down in September because everybody knew this. And so you get one performative rate hike. It

74
00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:21,020
sends a signal to the market. The market does a lot of the tightening for you. Warsh gets to look

75
00:05:21,020 --> 00:05:26,640
like a big shot, gets to declare victory on inflation at the next meeting or soon after,

76
00:05:26,760 --> 00:05:30,960
you know, this is Fed timescale. But it's a damn risky game to play if that's what's going on. And

77
00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:35,620
Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm no more crazy than your good buddy, Tom Lee.

78
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,420
Still becomes, it's easy, but for competitors, it's tougher.

79
00:05:39,940 --> 00:05:45,220
And on the inflation side, I still think the next six months will be the most important

80
00:05:45,220 --> 00:05:50,200
because if inflation starts to decline, this is not because of the Fed hikes that happened

81
00:05:50,200 --> 00:05:51,160
last week.

82
00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,180
It's because of the policy that's already in place.

83
00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:57,400
And I think that means the Fed could actually walk back some of that hawkishness.

84
00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:05,940
Yeah, I mean, what if that doesn't happen, that we have an elevation in both yields and inflation for longer than you suspect?

85
00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:13,500
I mean, the Fed's own forecasts aren't exactly talking about inflation getting back to target next month or the month after that or after that.

86
00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,580
Yeah, Scott, I think the probabilities are really high it's going to drop.

87
00:06:17,580 --> 00:06:24,600
One is because the PCE methodology on September 30th, they're going to unveil the new methodology.

88
00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,120
It's probably 20 to 40 basis points off the year of year.

89
00:06:28,220 --> 00:06:30,760
So the 3-4 could be 3%.

90
00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:37,700
And then we know that the tariff effects start to fade and the flash memory effects start to fade.

91
00:06:37,700 --> 00:06:41,040
The stock market portfolio fees start to fade.

92
00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:46,880
And the energy, if oil again stays here at 100, it doesn't add to inflation in six months.

93
00:06:47,580 --> 00:06:54,420
So for inflation to really accelerate from here, housing has to become higher price, but higher rates is going to contain that.

94
00:06:54,980 --> 00:07:00,820
And oil would have to make a move towards 150 and then flash memory would have to actually jump again.

95
00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:03,760
But again, it's being adjusted out of the methodology.

96
00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:08,060
So I think the odds favor a much lower inflation year in six months.

97
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,980
What a great time to adjust flash memory out of the methodology.

98
00:07:11,980 --> 00:07:22,280
You know, a lot of time, I think as Bitcoiners, we watch this kind of stuff and we feel like we're watching the fiat system just make the rules up in real time from the outside.

99
00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:24,160
At least that's what it feels like.

100
00:07:24,580 --> 00:07:30,060
And slowly but surely, the players in the market, I think they're starting to see it out, too.

101
00:07:30,140 --> 00:07:31,360
They're bit by bit, at least.

102
00:07:31,940 --> 00:07:39,840
You know, I think what clicks, it's an unbelievable bit of thought technology, actually, is I got to break it out.

103
00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:41,060
It's Lynn Alden's train.

104
00:07:41,980 --> 00:07:47,700
I know this sounds crazy, guys, but stick with me.

105
00:07:48,300 --> 00:07:55,980
This simple visualization that this has created, it might be one of the best financial memes of the next decade.

106
00:07:56,380 --> 00:07:59,320
Because I think it's starting to click for more and more people.

107
00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:02,940
Like, it's a shift in your worldview kind of thing.

108
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:08,120
And recently, two events really kind of got that train rolling for people.

109
00:08:08,120 --> 00:08:14,180
I mean, obviously, there's lots of macro stuff, especially with the energy stuff and Iran and the strait, et cetera, et cetera.

110
00:08:14,540 --> 00:08:27,940
But you just when you're watching, at least from where I'm sitting, Buffalo Bill Besson's war on the bond vigilantes and just the human nature of round numbers and the U.S. hitting 40 trillion dollars in debt.

111
00:08:27,940 --> 00:08:45,127
Right The economy that underpins everything now has a number so large that magic is required not to get swallowed up by it Swallowed whole Magic is required And so it just like of course that was true at 39 It was true at 38 37

112
00:08:45,527 --> 00:08:48,127
But 40 trillion, you got to admit,

113
00:08:48,187 --> 00:08:49,507
there's something about round numbers, right?

114
00:08:49,627 --> 00:08:52,367
When Bitcoin's at 99,000, that's exciting.

115
00:08:52,447 --> 00:08:55,587
But when it's at 100,000, that's very exciting.

116
00:08:56,247 --> 00:08:57,427
Nothing's really changed.

117
00:08:57,767 --> 00:08:58,867
But we can't help it.

118
00:08:59,127 --> 00:09:00,167
It's just these round numbers.

119
00:09:00,167 --> 00:09:06,087
And something about that 40 trillion mark seems to just have made more and more folks

120
00:09:06,087 --> 00:09:08,867
start hearing that train in the back of their mind.

121
00:09:09,247 --> 00:09:14,987
And the second order and third order effects of what 40 trillion dollars really means is

122
00:09:14,987 --> 00:09:16,427
starting to make them hedge differently.

123
00:09:17,127 --> 00:09:21,347
And so that's where I just think Lynn's analogy of there's no stopping that train.

124
00:09:21,467 --> 00:09:22,247
It just works.

125
00:09:22,487 --> 00:09:26,287
It's this moment of realization that the math is the math.

126
00:09:26,627 --> 00:09:28,467
There's no such thing as recessions anymore.

127
00:09:29,007 --> 00:09:29,787
I agree with that.

128
00:09:29,787 --> 00:09:43,267
Okay, so if you don't have recessions anymore, the liquidity cycle is not the same. That doesn't mean that the government doesn't try to prevent stock market crashes and prevent possible recessions that they're worried about.

129
00:09:43,267 --> 00:09:55,267
So when you look at the liquidity cycle, you have to remember what makes M2 go down is when humans start getting worried about things and they start hoarding cash and they start putting it into non-economic places.

130
00:09:56,087 --> 00:10:00,567
They're paying off debt or they're doing something, but they're not actually generating GDP with it.

131
00:10:00,907 --> 00:10:08,687
So there has been a link between liquidity forever and M2 and then you get GDP.

132
00:10:09,247 --> 00:10:11,367
And then you know what happens after you get GDP?

133
00:10:11,367 --> 00:10:19,047
liquidity turns into more jobs we're not doing that anymore it turns into profits first and then

134
00:10:19,047 --> 00:10:26,267
it goes into there so we have the s&p 500 growing at 30 earnings and the hiring x health care is

135
00:10:26,267 --> 00:10:31,907
negative over the last 20 months think about that we've had no job creation over the last 20 months

136
00:10:31,907 --> 00:10:38,207
except for health care fraud good so we have no job creation how are we breaking it so the the

137
00:10:38,207 --> 00:10:45,647
percentage of capital versus labor is now at the worst in history for labor. So we've broken the

138
00:10:45,647 --> 00:10:51,087
liquidity mechanism. Now, how is the stock market growing so fast? Because liquidity leads to nominal

139
00:10:51,087 --> 00:10:55,587
GDP. Nominal GDP is top line revenue, money transaction, people get hired, they spend more

140
00:10:55,587 --> 00:11:00,967
money. How in God's name do we actually have this mechanism still working? This is why the liquidity

141
00:11:00,967 --> 00:11:06,587
cycle is not about Bitcoin anymore. Liquidity cycle in 2009 began with the efficiency of productivity

142
00:11:06,587 --> 00:11:12,407
finally entering up. So the internet was born in 1994 in terms of when Netscape went public.

143
00:11:12,847 --> 00:11:17,647
Then we had the dot-com bubble. That was the version of crypto, that period into the dot-com

144
00:11:17,647 --> 00:11:22,867
bubble and after where we were building the rails for commerce. It didn't come until the smartphone

145
00:11:22,867 --> 00:11:26,507
came. And when the smartphone came, we had an explosion of productivity that showed up in profit

146
00:11:26,507 --> 00:11:30,927
margins. It did not show up in GDP, but I've talked about that. It's a horrible index for

147
00:11:30,927 --> 00:11:35,607
what we're dealing with with software and intangibles. But what is happening now is we've

148
00:11:35,607 --> 00:11:41,787
broken the liquidity mechanism. So I will say it again to everyone. We will be having more liquidity

149
00:11:41,787 --> 00:11:47,127
in the system, but not through the liquidity measures that people talk about. Tokenization

150
00:11:47,127 --> 00:11:53,067
unleashes dormant assets, $900 trillion of assets of which two thirds just sit.

151
00:11:53,067 --> 00:11:56,067
Hold on, I'll stick with him. I know he's saying tokenization and I'll tell you what,

152
00:11:56,407 --> 00:12:02,507
my hatred of what tokenization is going to lead to has made me not hear what Jordy is about to say.

153
00:12:02,507 --> 00:12:06,527
And now I get what the incentive is for the dollar system.

154
00:12:06,787 --> 00:12:08,427
That's what it's actually about.

155
00:12:08,547 --> 00:12:14,067
And I hadn't really connected it because I think it's going to lead to such irresponsible,

156
00:12:14,467 --> 00:12:19,087
essentially reckless gambling in the market with just all of the crap products that will

157
00:12:19,087 --> 00:12:22,547
eventually be derived from this that I already hate it before it's arrived.

158
00:12:22,787 --> 00:12:26,607
But after hearing this, I at least understand what the incentive is.

159
00:12:26,627 --> 00:12:28,067
And so I encourage you to hear it, too.

160
00:12:28,067 --> 00:12:31,447
through the liquidity measures that people talk about.

161
00:12:32,067 --> 00:12:34,327
Tokenization unleashes dormant assets,

162
00:12:34,507 --> 00:12:37,767
$900 trillion of assets of which two thirds

163
00:12:37,767 --> 00:12:39,667
just sit and do nothing.

164
00:12:40,167 --> 00:12:41,847
They will be used as collateral.

165
00:12:42,007 --> 00:12:43,427
They will be in daily transactions.

166
00:12:43,427 --> 00:12:47,667
You won't have to go to get a borrow money from your bank.

167
00:12:47,747 --> 00:12:49,087
It'll be programmable and stuff.

168
00:12:49,167 --> 00:12:50,767
We post something for a period of time

169
00:12:50,767 --> 00:12:52,727
waiting for your receivables to come in.

170
00:12:52,787 --> 00:12:53,207
And then it goes,

171
00:12:53,507 --> 00:12:55,947
the whole system will be based on the velocity of money.

172
00:12:56,327 --> 00:13:00,347
So remember, liquidity, M2, is about the government putting money into the system.

173
00:13:00,547 --> 00:13:02,167
We have plenty of money to run the system.

174
00:13:02,287 --> 00:13:03,467
That's showing up in profit margins.

175
00:13:03,607 --> 00:13:04,767
It's showing in top-line revenue.

176
00:13:05,127 --> 00:13:09,387
All right, so I thought that was kind of interesting, but I want to go back to this idea of no recessions,

177
00:13:09,427 --> 00:13:12,947
and let's stick with that just for a second because I think when you say no recessions,

178
00:13:13,267 --> 00:13:17,707
it's simplifying a very complex thing into just one easy idea.

179
00:13:18,247 --> 00:13:20,407
They're not going to let a recession get really bad.

180
00:13:20,887 --> 00:13:24,607
But I think you could actually nuance it down a bit, and so Simon Dixon does that,

181
00:13:24,607 --> 00:13:25,467
and he puts it together.

182
00:13:26,047 --> 00:13:28,687
He was recently on Natalie Brunel's Coin Story show,

183
00:13:28,807 --> 00:13:29,667
and she asked Simon,

184
00:13:30,127 --> 00:13:32,027
why is the stock market ripping?

185
00:13:32,267 --> 00:13:33,387
Why hasn't it crashed

186
00:13:33,387 --> 00:13:36,807
when the bond market is like a 17-year mess?

187
00:13:36,947 --> 00:13:38,507
It's just we keep,

188
00:13:38,627 --> 00:13:40,267
everyone keeps talking about the bond market,

189
00:13:40,327 --> 00:13:42,127
the bond market, the yields, the yields,

190
00:13:42,527 --> 00:13:43,387
but yet the stocks,

191
00:13:43,627 --> 00:13:46,827
they don't seem to be pricing in some sort of issue.

192
00:13:47,087 --> 00:13:48,007
What's going on here?

193
00:13:48,207 --> 00:13:49,927
I thought that was a great question on Natalie's part,

194
00:13:49,927 --> 00:13:51,307
and Simon breaks it down.

195
00:13:51,867 --> 00:13:53,287
In fact, it just keeps going up.

196
00:13:53,287 --> 00:13:56,947
Yeah. So we're in, I think you've had Lynn on your show many times, Lynn Alden,

197
00:13:57,187 --> 00:14:02,267
always talking about fiscal dominance. That's the phase we're in. Fiscal dominance means you

198
00:14:02,267 --> 00:14:08,967
can't have a recession. You can't correct the stock market. The only way to accelerate your

199
00:14:08,967 --> 00:14:16,067
way through this is through growth. And through growth means growth by any means. If it means

200
00:14:16,067 --> 00:14:23,367
create a war, get lots of rollover debt, spend it into military companies, do whatever you need to

201
00:14:23,367 --> 00:14:29,487
do to stimulate the stock market. And so there is a war economy that benefits and gets stimulated.

202
00:14:29,767 --> 00:14:34,227
There is a surveillance state economy. There is all these data centers. There's AI.

203
00:14:34,787 --> 00:14:41,127
There's these big trends. But the rule, if you want a very easy rule to understand, is that

204
00:14:41,127 --> 00:14:47,187
there is an average cost on the debt, which is approximately 3.3%. So if you take the 40 trillion,

205
00:14:48,147 --> 00:14:53,887
that has to continually be rolled over. And more frequently, it's being rolled over by

206
00:14:53,887 --> 00:15:00,207
Americans through their pensions and stable coins and all these funky things that they're trying to

207
00:15:00,207 --> 00:15:05,947
come up with in order to do it. But you can keep this debt-based Ponzi scheme as it were,

208
00:15:05,947 --> 00:15:11,207
because it is a Ponzi scheme, it has to carry on. You can't tank the market because it's the

209
00:15:11,207 --> 00:15:16,367
collateral and the backbone of the whole system. The entire banking system is dependent upon real

210
00:15:16,367 --> 00:15:22,807
estate prices continuing to go up. And if those prices don't go up, then you get a severe

211
00:15:22,807 --> 00:15:29,647
correction. So the only way to do that is to grow at a higher rate than the average cost on the debt.

212
00:15:29,647 --> 00:15:42,147
So if the GDP of the economy, as long as it is growing greater than 3.3%, then you can carry this on for a bit longer and carry this on for a bit longer.

213
00:15:42,907 --> 00:15:53,087
Now, the mechanism for growth that they have chosen is almost like a new industrial revolution in building out data centers and artificial intelligence.

214
00:15:53,087 --> 00:16:00,647
and you know people are speculating on well doesn't that cost us a lot of jobs like because

215
00:16:00,647 --> 00:16:05,807
everyone's using ai now and you know i've in my companies we've had freezes in most of the

216
00:16:05,807 --> 00:16:09,767
companies i've invested in they've had hiring freezes and yeah you know you're getting these

217
00:16:09,767 --> 00:16:15,607
highly productive employees and then there's less people underneath them and you know and at some

218
00:16:15,607 --> 00:16:21,127
point right there's going to be these self-driving cars and self-driving trucks and suddenly we're

219
00:16:21,127 --> 00:16:26,667
going to have these big employment shocks. And so you're getting the growth, but the growth is

220
00:16:26,667 --> 00:16:31,527
concentrating to those that already have all the assets and all the value. And then those that are

221
00:16:31,527 --> 00:16:36,287
about to lose their job, what are they going to do? Are they going to start maybe trying to

222
00:16:36,287 --> 00:16:40,807
refinance their home, release more equity? Or are they going to start selling down their pensions

223
00:16:40,807 --> 00:16:45,507
early? Or they're going to start selling their assets. So we're getting this huge concentration

224
00:16:45,507 --> 00:16:48,907
and shift and that's causing, you know, this thing.

225
00:16:49,107 --> 00:16:54,567
And once the dollar starts weakening and continues to weaken, that's kind of how you manage this

226
00:16:54,567 --> 00:16:58,307
transition because it relies upon the dollar continually strengthening.

227
00:16:58,907 --> 00:16:58,947
Yeah.

228
00:16:59,247 --> 00:17:01,907
And debasement helps, of course, get away from that debt.

229
00:17:02,287 --> 00:17:06,607
So the AI pump has to continue, though, for that GDP to debt ratio to be anything that

230
00:17:06,607 --> 00:17:08,407
we can actually claim to be reasonable.

231
00:17:08,607 --> 00:17:24,474
It accounts for nearly 40 percent of total growth of the GDP which means it adds about somewhere between 0 and 1 percentage points to the GDP right now just the AI investments in general That according to the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank

232
00:17:24,634 --> 00:17:28,474
So we kind of have a Ponzi on it, and that's always what it's been, really, especially since

233
00:17:28,474 --> 00:17:34,614
we de-pegged from gold. And I think big tech has been a major player in this pump since really,

234
00:17:34,894 --> 00:17:39,514
I mean, obviously it started with the dot-com boom, but I think it took a breather. And then

235
00:17:39,514 --> 00:17:44,374
after 2008, it's been big tech in the driver's seat with one massive innovation after another.

236
00:17:44,494 --> 00:17:49,434
If you just walk it back through your minds from AI to blockchain to smartphone to Internet of

237
00:17:49,434 --> 00:17:54,274
Things, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, there's just been one hype wave after another, each one

238
00:17:54,274 --> 00:17:59,414
bigger and louder and more and more people getting in on it each and every time with big tech now

239
00:17:59,414 --> 00:18:05,154
becoming the Meg 7 and they've been directly pumping things. Right. And so this AI pump has

240
00:18:05,154 --> 00:18:10,094
been driven through them as well. And I think the signal is that more people are paying attention to

241
00:18:10,094 --> 00:18:15,894
this. And the other indication that people are in fact paying attention, it's not just that people

242
00:18:15,894 --> 00:18:20,214
are interested in talking about macroeconomics now or more people know who the Federal Reserve

243
00:18:20,214 --> 00:18:24,714
chair is than anyone in my previous entire life experience has ever known. Like there's these

244
00:18:24,714 --> 00:18:30,074
other signs that people are paying attention, obviously out there, but there's also numbers

245
00:18:30,074 --> 00:18:31,294
you can put on a chart.

246
00:18:31,694 --> 00:18:32,854
I'm not a chart sniffer,

247
00:18:33,133 --> 00:18:35,114
but I do like to look at Bitcoin

248
00:18:35,114 --> 00:18:36,954
priced in gold from time to time,

249
00:18:37,133 --> 00:18:38,174
not priced in Fiat.

250
00:18:38,954 --> 00:18:43,614
And Bitcoin in gold terms is up around

251
00:18:43,614 --> 00:18:45,054
roughly 3% this week.

252
00:18:45,734 --> 00:18:47,214
That's not too crazy, right?

253
00:18:47,554 --> 00:18:49,194
What is interesting is recently,

254
00:18:50,114 --> 00:18:52,954
Bitcoin held and gold kind of went down

255
00:18:52,954 --> 00:18:54,214
after the rate hike.

256
00:18:54,294 --> 00:18:55,054
That was interesting.

257
00:18:55,374 --> 00:18:58,334
And Bitcoin bounced a bit after the PCE print

258
00:18:58,334 --> 00:19:00,454
and gold really hasn't done much.

259
00:19:00,514 --> 00:19:02,574
But actually what's very noteworthy here

260
00:19:02,574 --> 00:19:05,234
is the longer term gold to Bitcoin ratio.

261
00:19:05,994 --> 00:19:08,314
Gold is not looking so good recently.

262
00:19:08,614 --> 00:19:11,134
Bitcoin in gold terms is up 37%

263
00:19:11,134 --> 00:19:14,174
from its 14.4 ounce August low.

264
00:19:14,174 --> 00:19:16,334
And the 90 day Bitcoin gold correlation

265
00:19:16,334 --> 00:19:19,374
is at a six year high.

266
00:19:20,354 --> 00:19:22,874
So that is something to watch

267
00:19:22,874 --> 00:19:24,614
and Bitcoin Magazine broke it down.

268
00:19:25,054 --> 00:19:25,734
In early September,

269
00:19:25,734 --> 00:19:33,294
we cleared that May high of 17.9 ounces, three higher lows followed by a new high.

270
00:19:33,694 --> 00:19:39,674
Two things are really catching my eye here. We start this deviation in June,

271
00:19:40,254 --> 00:19:48,954
and that's a low in dollars that we undercut. And then the February low set a higher low.

272
00:19:49,434 --> 00:19:54,854
So we're making higher lows, and then we're also making higher highs if we look later on at the

273
00:19:54,854 --> 00:19:59,133
timeframe as we start to come out in the second half of this year. We really were struggling until

274
00:19:59,133 --> 00:20:04,454
February. And then we start to get this bullish trajectory. The February low is about 12.1 ounces

275
00:20:04,454 --> 00:20:11,554
measured in gold. The June low on that chart, 13.7 ounces. And then the August low, 14.4 ounces.

276
00:20:11,834 --> 00:20:20,074
So in early September, we cleared that May high of 17.9 ounces, three higher lows followed by a new

277
00:20:20,074 --> 00:20:26,834
high. Very, very bullish setup. Yeah, bullish indeed it might be because Bitwise's Ryan Rasmussen,

278
00:20:27,054 --> 00:20:33,294
I think that's how you say it, says he's been seeing his nation state level clients sell their

279
00:20:33,294 --> 00:20:42,414
gold to buy Bitcoin. Gold and selling their other FX reserves to fund Bitcoin purchases. So there

280
00:20:42,414 --> 00:20:49,174
really is this kind of dual sided approach to getting exposure to hard assets through Bitcoin

281
00:20:49,174 --> 00:20:54,854
and gold. Now, the thing about sovereign wealth funds is they control massive amounts of capital.

282
00:20:55,594 --> 00:20:59,694
And they're pretty interesting in terms of their willingness to take a little bit of risk

283
00:20:59,694 --> 00:21:05,654
with their portfolio in a newer asset like Bitcoin relative to gold. And even though it's

284
00:21:05,654 --> 00:21:11,534
just a small percentage of their portfolio, maybe 2% or 3%, the amount of money they control and

285
00:21:11,534 --> 00:21:16,734
the amount of capital they control is so massive that that can have a meaningful impact on the

286
00:21:16,734 --> 00:21:21,594
Bitcoin market. And are these sovereigns looking to buy ETFs or spot Bitcoin or are they more

287
00:21:21,594 --> 00:21:27,794
interested in trying to generate it maybe through mining or some other efforts? Yeah, I think it's

288
00:21:27,794 --> 00:21:32,994
actually all of the above, right? The ones that we spoke to, the sovereign wealth funds were,

289
00:21:33,414 --> 00:21:38,133
some were interested in buying spot Bitcoin ETFs, some were interested in building their

290
00:21:38,133 --> 00:21:45,633
own custody solutions in-house or investing in custodians in their country and using those for

291
00:21:45,633 --> 00:21:50,934
direct holdings in cold storage. Some were participating in mining. Some were more interested

292
00:21:50,934 --> 00:21:57,214
in running strategies to generate income on their Bitcoin, like options income strategies. At Bitwise,

293
00:21:57,214 --> 00:22:04,354
we help sovereigns and other investors build SMA portfolios where our team in-house runs

294
00:22:04,354 --> 00:22:10,414
option overlay strategies to generate income on top of their Bitcoin holdings. So it really is

295
00:22:10,414 --> 00:22:15,474
all of the above. For some of these sovereign wealth funds, it's a strategic initiative for

296
00:22:15,474 --> 00:22:23,373
the country to embrace Bitcoin and crypto and bring innovation into their country. And so partly

297
00:22:23,373 --> 00:22:28,114
their investments are then putting their cards on the table and saying, look, we're here for the

298
00:22:28,114 --> 00:22:34,414
long term. We believe Bitcoin is going to play a major role in the financial economy for the future.

299
00:22:34,414 --> 00:22:40,373
And so not only are we investing in bringing innovation into our country, bringing crypto

300
00:22:40,373 --> 00:22:46,294
companies into our country, whether that's custodians, exchange ins, or payments via

301
00:22:46,294 --> 00:22:51,914
Bitcoin, but we're also buying Bitcoin and holding it. So I think it's really all of the above,

302
00:22:52,014 --> 00:22:56,274
which is, you know, what makes Bitcoin so fascinating today is that you have all these

303
00:22:56,274 --> 00:23:02,373
different ways to gain exposure to Bitcoin. And some are great for some people, some are great

304
00:23:02,373 --> 00:23:07,174
for others, and all of them are great for many investors. All of them are great for Bitwise.

305
00:23:07,174 --> 00:23:16,334
And speaking of crazy buddies, your crazy buddy, Kathy Wood, says that gold peaked on the day that Trump nominated Warsh.

306
00:23:16,554 --> 00:23:23,034
And so it is interesting that the gold price peaked on the day President Trump nominated him.

307
00:23:23,354 --> 00:23:30,154
And we would not be surprised to see the gold price stabilize around here, maybe go down.

308
00:23:30,674 --> 00:23:31,774
Jury's out on that.

309
00:23:32,014 --> 00:23:34,594
We're going to be in a wait and see mode.

310
00:23:34,594 --> 00:23:47,954
But if the dollar moves up, as we believe it will, because the returns on invested capital in the U.S. are going up relative to those in the rest of the world, we believe the gold price will come down.

311
00:23:48,514 --> 00:23:49,394
Oh, okay.

312
00:23:49,534 --> 00:23:53,633
Now, I don't know if you can really pin it on one reason.

313
00:23:53,873 --> 00:23:57,334
She's got a couple there, but, you know, it's a complex market.

314
00:23:57,694 --> 00:23:59,274
Things are just dynamic right now.

315
00:23:59,274 --> 00:24:14,234
The thing is, a lot of the recent trades, the reason why I say that is a lot of the recent trades have just sort of been herd momentum, or I guess what the wonks would call it would be fast money, where they just chase whatever has momentum at the moment, and gold may have just lost that.

316
00:24:14,774 --> 00:24:18,133
I think we're seeing a bit, too, of the AI trade spill off.

317
00:24:18,194 --> 00:24:24,434
Not that the AI trade is slow completely, but some of what you can buy has been bought at this point, right?

318
00:24:24,434 --> 00:24:35,613
And then also, I think they're with all of the talk of it destroying all humans and Bill Gates saying it's going to kill a billion people and Dario saying it'll kill four to six percent of humanity and, you know, take 20 percent of jobs.

319
00:24:35,854 --> 00:24:41,734
That thing, maybe it's made people kind of want to back off a bit, you know, and also there's all of the training costs and all of that.

320
00:24:42,234 --> 00:24:46,354
So I think maybe, maybe we're seeing a spillover a little bit into Bitcoin.

321
00:24:46,494 --> 00:24:48,574
And I suspect Lynn Alden agrees.

322
00:24:48,574 --> 00:24:55,754
more with bitcoin adoption is a multi-year story and there's different types of adoption so whenever

323
00:24:55,754 --> 00:25:00,614
we look at like a multi-month period like this i think a lot of it has to do with liquidity conditions

324
00:25:00,614 --> 00:25:07,014
and then some of it just is like just fast money right so you know for a while you know the ai

325
00:25:07,014 --> 00:25:12,774
trade was sucking some of the the kind of the the oomph out of bitcoin i would say and so what

326
00:25:12,774 --> 00:25:16,394
happens is eventually bitcoin gets to a point where all the fast money's out or most of the

327
00:25:16,394 --> 00:25:17,254
Fast money's out.

328
00:25:17,894 --> 00:25:18,914
People have been liquidated.

329
00:25:19,434 --> 00:25:23,874
And then all that's kind of left is like the long-term money

330
00:25:23,874 --> 00:25:25,834
that's just kind of there for years.

331
00:25:26,694 --> 00:25:28,633
And then it makes it so just the marginal seller

332
00:25:28,633 --> 00:25:29,894
is just not really there anymore.

333
00:25:29,894 --> 00:25:31,934
Like, you know, bad news can come out

334
00:25:31,934 --> 00:25:35,934
and just people that could sell have already sold.

335
00:25:36,574 --> 00:25:38,934
And bulls are just less leveraged than they were.

336
00:25:39,574 --> 00:25:42,354
And so it only takes either minor good news

337
00:25:42,354 --> 00:25:45,734
or in some cases just less bad news.

338
00:25:45,734 --> 00:25:47,873
and then it starts to build a base.

339
00:25:47,873 --> 00:25:49,154
It just stops going down.

340
00:25:49,154 --> 00:25:50,294
And it's not really a headline event,

341
00:25:50,294 --> 00:26:02,160
it just stops going down And then when it stops going down and turns up even a tiny bit you got the technical traders come in and say hey that chart looked like dumpster fire for six months and now it doesn anymore So it triggers their alerts

342
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:12,140
And then, you know, once it goes up 10, 20, 30% off the lows, you know, you start to get momentum traders that come in and say, hey, now our alerts are triggering for that.

343
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:19,580
And then if that's eventually enough to get it up to the next high, then you have headlines and retail and other types of buyers coming in.

344
00:26:19,580 --> 00:26:24,280
So you get kind of self-reinforcing buying to the upside, you get self-reinforcing selling to the downside.

345
00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:32,101
And it mostly just starts the part you look for, which I think we've crossed now, is just that fast money is already out.

346
00:26:32,380 --> 00:26:41,320
And just there's an exhaustion of sellers, not because there's any one reason, just because everyone that was going to sell has largely already sold.

347
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:48,200
So now it just it takes a very small amount of news to start grinding sideways to up instead of sideways to down.

348
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:59,420
The one thing I would add is over time, that HODLer base that understands the value and market fit of Bitcoin, as I like to say, you see them set the floor.

349
00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:01,180
And I think we're already seeing that.

350
00:27:01,540 --> 00:27:08,280
This four-year cycle has been, well, so far pretty smooth in terms of four-year cycles so far.

351
00:27:08,500 --> 00:27:14,060
And so once the traders leave, or fast money, as Lynn puts it, then we set the floor.

352
00:27:14,180 --> 00:27:17,060
And there's just more of us that accumulate over time.

353
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,500
The rest of the clip with Lynn was good, too.

354
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:23,341
And I think she kind of lays out her current market thesis for Bitcoin.

355
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:24,940
Up instead of sideways to down.

356
00:27:25,420 --> 00:27:25,601
Yeah.

357
00:27:25,700 --> 00:27:28,601
Of course, you hear the perma bear kind of perspectives on it, too.

358
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,440
But does that make Bitcoin less vulnerable to another liquidity squeeze?

359
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,020
Or can it still get pulled down with everything else?

360
00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,800
That's Jeremy from KITCO News.

361
00:27:38,820 --> 00:27:40,660
Well, so Bitcoin is still a volatile asset.

362
00:27:41,020 --> 00:27:46,741
I mean, it can swing $10,000 in either direction without a real cause.

363
00:27:46,741 --> 00:27:47,760
It can just do that.

364
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:52,940
It's kind of like how, you know, yeah, so I think we're still in for a choppy situation.

365
00:27:53,060 --> 00:27:56,660
I'm not really calling for like a major bull action in the next three months necessarily.

366
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:00,300
With Bitcoin, I kind of approached two main things.

367
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,180
One is, is it the best at what it does?

368
00:28:03,700 --> 00:28:09,280
And this is a situation where network effects and protocol security and simplicity all matter.

369
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:13,080
So kind of like how, you know, what is the staying power of Ethernet?

370
00:28:13,220 --> 00:28:14,580
What is the staying power of USB?

371
00:28:14,580 --> 00:28:18,780
B, what is the staying power of simple transfer protocol, internet protocol?

372
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:24,700
These kind of communication protocols have very long lasting life cycles that are self-reinforcing.

373
00:28:24,780 --> 00:28:26,420
And I kind of put Bitcoin in that camp.

374
00:28:27,120 --> 00:28:29,140
So one is I just analyze this.

375
00:28:29,241 --> 00:28:30,780
Is it still the best at what it does?

376
00:28:31,341 --> 00:28:36,020
And if that's a yes, then the second question is how big, what is the market for what it does?

377
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:44,020
And so, for example, if Bitcoin is global capital and permissionless payments, right now it's worth something like 0.2%.

378
00:28:44,580 --> 00:28:51,060
of global liquid assets. And then I asked myself, could it be worth 2% of global liquid assets?

379
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:57,580
Would that be unreasonable? And my view is no. And so it's like, I still think that there's a

380
00:28:57,580 --> 00:29:04,060
potential 10X or more upside to the asset compared to the global sea of assets that can be invested

381
00:29:04,060 --> 00:29:10,601
in me, compared to the global bond market, compared to equities, housing, which is illiquid

382
00:29:10,601 --> 00:29:16,460
assets. I think gold is valuable. That's part of the total base we can consider. And then there's

383
00:29:16,460 --> 00:29:21,140
Bitcoin. And I just think it's still small compared to what its potential is, especially in that world

384
00:29:21,140 --> 00:29:25,660
we just talked about. I mean, it's a world of deficits. It's a world of capital controls. It's

385
00:29:25,660 --> 00:29:32,560
a world of war. And, you know, self-custodial mobile capital, I think, is valuable.

386
00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:38,060
Yeah. I want to nuance it down just a little bit. She compared Bitcoin to TCP, IP, and SMTP.

387
00:29:38,060 --> 00:29:44,341
I look at it kind of like this. I agree with the TCP IP part. I think Bitcoin's TCP IP for money

388
00:29:44,341 --> 00:29:52,380
in a sense. I think lightning is SMTP, right? SMTP rides on top of TCP IP. It requires TCP IP

389
00:29:52,380 --> 00:29:58,140
and the base protocol to exist and be valid in order for SMTP to work. But then SMTP rides on

390
00:29:58,140 --> 00:30:01,420
top of that and allows you to transmit directly, directly, or you could say peer to peer.

391
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:07,940
And when you think about them as protocols like that and how open source protocols just grow,

392
00:30:08,060 --> 00:30:12,880
and it becomes an economic incentive for others to adopt it as they grow,

393
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:17,080
then, you know, that's just part of the value story around Bitcoin.

394
00:30:19,261 --> 00:30:22,120
But I got to ask you a question that I would like you to boost in about.

395
00:30:22,120 --> 00:30:27,101
What is your reaction to the BEA rewriting the last five years of inflation data?

396
00:30:27,841 --> 00:30:31,460
Does it feel like the fiat system is just making up the rules as they go?

397
00:30:31,601 --> 00:30:35,420
Or is this type of management justified in a system like this?

398
00:30:35,420 --> 00:30:41,800
does a fiat system like this require these types of adjustments because of its very nature? And so

399
00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:46,520
therefore, in a weird way, it is valid. You know what I'm asking? I mean, it's a weird one.

400
00:30:46,940 --> 00:30:53,080
So are they fake numbers or not? What do you think? Boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com.

401
00:30:53,080 --> 00:30:54,460
Let me know and support the show.

402
00:31:05,420 --> 00:31:14,180
Now don't go away.

403
00:31:14,260 --> 00:31:15,300
Not only are the boosts coming up,

404
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,241
but there's a lot of updates you need to know about

405
00:31:17,241 --> 00:31:19,060
and a final clip of the week.

406
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:21,120
I'll just mention, you can also support the show

407
00:31:21,120 --> 00:31:22,241
just by doing what you do.

408
00:31:22,300 --> 00:31:24,860
If you want to start stacking sats on River or Strike,

409
00:31:24,920 --> 00:31:26,140
I got links in the show notes.

410
00:31:26,560 --> 00:31:30,260
If you want to use a platform that's all about self-custody,

411
00:31:30,500 --> 00:31:32,960
where you have the wallet, that's the Bitcoin well.

412
00:31:33,241 --> 00:31:34,980
Check them out in Canada or the US.

413
00:31:34,980 --> 00:31:42,160
If you want to go from sats to gift card in just seconds over the Lightning Network, the Bitcoin company, they only do Bitcoin and they just did a nice redesign.

414
00:31:42,540 --> 00:31:45,280
Great infrastructure. I've used them for years. Link in the notes.

415
00:31:45,860 --> 00:31:50,120
Fold card. Stack the sats while you're paying your bills, doing what you got to do to live your life.

416
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,100
And they also have a Visa card to stack sats too.

417
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:59,440
And then salt lending. One of the OGs in Bitcoin lending that gives you access to your Bitcoin without having to sell it.

418
00:31:59,780 --> 00:32:01,960
Get a little bit of that liquidity. Strike does that as well.

419
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:03,480
I got links to all of those in the notes.

420
00:32:04,060 --> 00:32:07,380
No official relash, just services I use.

421
00:32:07,741 --> 00:32:10,420
So far, haven't been rugged, so I can recommend them.

422
00:32:10,841 --> 00:32:13,020
Thanks for supporting the show by doing what you do.

423
00:32:13,660 --> 00:32:16,220
But now, let's get in to the Boos.

424
00:32:19,020 --> 00:32:21,980
And now, it is time for Le Boos.

425
00:32:21,980 --> 00:32:24,101
All right, here we go.

426
00:32:24,241 --> 00:32:27,480
Kicking us off is John A. with Get Ready For It.

427
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:32,360
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, 250,000 Satoshis.

428
00:32:43,700 --> 00:32:49,560
John A. Wright's been listening to all the JB shows for years, but Twib slowly risen to the top of his my favorite.

429
00:32:50,140 --> 00:32:52,160
All shows go to the top of my queue, though.

430
00:32:52,620 --> 00:32:53,440
Bootlegs for the win.

431
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:54,600
Thank you, John.

432
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:59,600
Yeah, bootlegs could be in the future for TWIB.

433
00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:02,620
I kind of want to think about the format a bit

434
00:33:02,620 --> 00:33:03,800
so it's valuable for the members,

435
00:33:04,020 --> 00:33:07,480
and I'm still kind of experimenting with live streams on Fountain

436
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:08,900
and kind of getting that worked out.

437
00:33:08,940 --> 00:33:10,380
My account just recently got access, though.

438
00:33:11,100 --> 00:33:13,940
So there could be more news on that front soon.

439
00:33:14,100 --> 00:33:14,741
Thank you, John.

440
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:16,860
Really appreciate you being our baller booster.

441
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:22,520
Derivation Dingus comes in with 1, 2, 4, 6, 6, 7 sets.

442
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,440
Yes, that's 124,000.

443
00:33:24,600 --> 00:33:27,140
667 Satoshis.

444
00:33:28,241 --> 00:33:28,400
What?

445
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,340
Oh, can you believe it?

446
00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:39,360
Woo!

447
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:40,540
Break it up.

448
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,280
You got boost power.

449
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:43,680
Derivation Dingus writes,

450
00:33:43,780 --> 00:33:45,860
Twib is one of the best Bitcoin podcasts around.

451
00:33:46,180 --> 00:33:48,200
I hope these sats help you get through this slower period.

452
00:33:48,320 --> 00:33:49,720
Yes, they do, Derivation.

453
00:33:50,300 --> 00:33:51,220
Thank you very much.

454
00:33:51,940 --> 00:33:52,760
That's a great boost.

455
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,560
Appreciate you coming in from Fountain, too.

456
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:56,540
Mastrix, am I getting that right?

457
00:33:56,700 --> 00:33:59,000
M-A-L-Y-S-T-R-Y-X.

458
00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:04,200
Mastrix comes in with a clean 120,000 Satoshis.

459
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:05,780
I heard that, but you're kind.

460
00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:07,120
Yes!

461
00:34:12,920 --> 00:34:13,600
Stop it.

462
00:34:14,300 --> 00:34:15,041
Get some help.

463
00:34:16,521 --> 00:34:17,200
All right.

464
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:17,700
All right.

465
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:18,260
So, hi, Chris.

466
00:34:18,320 --> 00:34:19,920
Just wanted to encourage you to keep going.

467
00:34:19,920 --> 00:34:23,380
I suspect donations being down may have less to do with the quality of the value and more

468
00:34:23,380 --> 00:34:28,100
about us being so squeezed on available funds. Yeah, I hear that. Everything is getting more

469
00:34:28,100 --> 00:34:32,200
and more expensive while income doesn't change. Some people, it's just going down and down. I

470
00:34:32,200 --> 00:34:34,900
wish I could support more. Really, I love the show and I've learned so much from

471
00:34:34,932 --> 00:34:37,392
Twib and before from the Bitcoin dad.

472
00:34:37,772 --> 00:34:39,952
True believer and your weekly information is important to me.

473
00:34:40,452 --> 00:34:42,132
I did get a split air, so I'm trying again.

474
00:34:42,312 --> 00:34:43,372
Oh, you know what?

475
00:34:44,412 --> 00:34:46,592
Yeah, I wonder because we got a lot of support.

476
00:34:46,652 --> 00:34:49,972
I wonder if some of my channels, you know, got too loaded on one side.

477
00:34:50,712 --> 00:34:51,572
Thank you very much, Mal.

478
00:34:51,632 --> 00:34:51,972
And I do.

479
00:34:52,132 --> 00:34:53,832
I know I'm feeling the same way these days.

480
00:34:54,452 --> 00:34:55,672
It's a tricky thing, right?

481
00:34:56,272 --> 00:34:58,732
Especially in an age when we want to keep independent media alive.

482
00:34:58,732 --> 00:35:00,332
It's getting squeezed on all sides.

483
00:35:00,872 --> 00:35:02,572
Really, this community makes a difference.

484
00:35:02,712 --> 00:35:04,092
Thank you very much.

485
00:35:04,092 --> 00:35:12,212
Who Needs Chairs, I get that reference, comes in with 115,000 Satoshis.

486
00:35:15,212 --> 00:35:16,932
But that's not possible.

487
00:35:17,072 --> 00:35:18,112
Nothing can do that.

488
00:35:18,292 --> 00:35:21,692
Who Needs Chairs writes, most valuable podcast I listen to by far.

489
00:35:21,972 --> 00:35:23,992
Hope you continue to put out the Bitcoin macro content.

490
00:35:24,152 --> 00:35:28,252
Regarding the Bitcoin price, I think the bear case is it holds above 80K.

491
00:35:28,772 --> 00:35:32,312
Bold cases, we get positive Iran news, more fiscal deficit and debasement news,

492
00:35:32,612 --> 00:35:35,872
or more mainstream adoption news that pushes Bitcoin higher.

493
00:35:36,432 --> 00:35:38,772
Yeah, that seems like a pretty astute analysis to me.

494
00:35:39,052 --> 00:35:40,772
And it could go, any of those could go either way.

495
00:35:41,132 --> 00:35:42,852
So stay tuned and find out, right?

496
00:35:44,372 --> 00:35:45,432
Thank you very much.

497
00:35:45,492 --> 00:35:47,072
Who does need chairs?

498
00:35:47,172 --> 00:35:47,692
Sell you chairs.

499
00:35:47,892 --> 00:35:49,092
Are you over-invested in chairs?

500
00:35:49,652 --> 00:35:49,852
Huh?

501
00:35:50,532 --> 00:35:51,712
Do you hedge on multiple chairs?

502
00:35:51,832 --> 00:35:52,972
How many glasses do you have?

503
00:35:53,332 --> 00:35:54,112
What about your headphones?

504
00:35:54,112 --> 00:35:56,132
Do you hedge on multiple headphones?

505
00:35:56,752 --> 00:35:57,012
No.

506
00:35:57,712 --> 00:35:58,632
You need to buy sats.

507
00:36:00,132 --> 00:36:01,592
Thanks, Jared.

508
00:36:01,672 --> 00:36:02,252
Appreciate you.

509
00:36:03,092 --> 00:36:07,792
Nats Gimerson comes in with 111, 101 Satoshis.

510
00:36:07,792 --> 00:36:08,552
Woo-hoo-hoo!

511
00:36:09,452 --> 00:36:10,832
Woo, look at it go!

512
00:36:12,632 --> 00:36:14,392
Says, don't stop, brother.

513
00:36:14,472 --> 00:36:16,172
They are doing a lot with mayo these days.

514
00:36:16,192 --> 00:36:18,732
Indo-Pacific Command, not Indopay.com.

515
00:36:18,812 --> 00:36:19,052
Okay.

516
00:36:19,312 --> 00:36:19,692
All right.

517
00:36:19,832 --> 00:36:20,172
All right.

518
00:36:20,252 --> 00:36:20,992
Did I say that?

519
00:36:21,032 --> 00:36:21,372
I'm sorry.

520
00:36:21,432 --> 00:36:22,152
That's so embarrassing.

521
00:36:22,932 --> 00:36:23,332
Thanks.

522
00:36:24,512 --> 00:36:24,892
Nats?

523
00:36:24,972 --> 00:36:26,092
Oh, Nats gas immersion.

524
00:36:26,092 --> 00:36:31,552
or what? Now, are you saying you have natural gas powered immersed miners? Is that what your

525
00:36:31,552 --> 00:36:36,952
is that what your is that what your handle is implying? I need a clarification. I need a

526
00:36:36,952 --> 00:36:41,272
clarification. And I appreciate that baller boost. Thank you. Thank you very much. All right. And

527
00:36:41,272 --> 00:36:45,712
here we go. One more than a hundred thousand sets. Get ready. It's our last one. And it's very,

528
00:36:45,712 --> 00:36:51,232
very much appreciated. Ladies and gentlemen, coming in with 100,000 sets right there on the

529
00:36:51,232 --> 00:36:57,272
knows it's dash dummy i hoard that which your kind covet everything's under control and dash

530
00:36:57,272 --> 00:37:02,832
dummy says just thanks well thank you very much boost appreciate you anonymous came in with 88

531
00:37:02,832 --> 00:37:10,732
345 satoshis i don't know if that feels like the right sound for that one well i'll be dipped

532
00:37:10,732 --> 00:37:14,212
have to work on that one huh yeah but he's definitely a good guy he's a good guy yeah

533
00:37:14,212 --> 00:37:19,052
he's a real good guy great guy yeah but he is anonymous says uh yo chris your macroeconomics

534
00:37:19,052 --> 00:37:23,312
reporting and analysis is very much appreciated. You make the complex topic approachable without

535
00:37:23,312 --> 00:37:27,512
jargon. And even though I may not subscribe to every point in your thesis, I hope your listeners

536
00:37:27,512 --> 00:37:32,832
rally to support the show. I endeavor to contribute when possible. Zab. Boy, I love hearing that. I

537
00:37:32,832 --> 00:37:35,592
love hearing that you can listen and not agree with everything because that's what I try to do

538
00:37:35,592 --> 00:37:40,732
as well. I'd love to cultivate that kind of community. Thank you very much, Zab, aka Anonymous.

539
00:37:41,472 --> 00:37:46,372
J-Cube comes in with 77,777 Satoshis.

540
00:37:49,052 --> 00:37:55,072
jcubes write support boost

541
00:37:55,072 --> 00:38:01,792
seriously though we really don't we really don't want you to stop so here's some signal and value

542
00:38:01,792 --> 00:38:07,232
thank you jcubes appreciate that value foxbite comes in with 70 000 sats

543
00:38:07,232 --> 00:38:18,092
thanks for another great twib episode love twib thank you foxbite and i appreciate you

544
00:38:18,552 --> 00:38:19,612
Thanks for using the web boost.

545
00:38:20,032 --> 00:38:24,152
Halleck's here with 54,321 Satoshis.

546
00:38:28,832 --> 00:38:30,152
Also a fantastic boost.

547
00:38:30,232 --> 00:38:31,872
He says, sorry for not boosting more often.

548
00:38:31,992 --> 00:38:33,732
I'm usually listening in the car and I forget to boost.

549
00:38:33,972 --> 00:38:34,492
I understand.

550
00:38:35,252 --> 00:38:36,612
Consider yourself caught up.

551
00:38:36,692 --> 00:38:37,312
Thank you, Halleck.

552
00:38:37,412 --> 00:38:38,092
Appreciate you.

553
00:38:38,632 --> 00:38:42,992
Juke is here with 44,444 Satoshis.

554
00:38:43,212 --> 00:38:45,012
10 gold gloves out of a possible 10 gold gloves.

555
00:38:45,032 --> 00:38:45,792
Very nice.

556
00:38:46,152 --> 00:38:47,452
First time booster.

557
00:38:47,932 --> 00:38:48,332
What?

558
00:38:48,392 --> 00:38:49,232
Are you serious?

559
00:38:50,232 --> 00:38:51,632
Juke, thank you very much.

560
00:38:52,312 --> 00:38:52,692
You know what?

561
00:38:52,692 --> 00:38:54,372
You get a little first-time boost eagle, too.

562
00:38:54,772 --> 00:38:55,492
Just for you.

563
00:38:56,112 --> 00:38:58,012
I just wanted to thank you for all the shows and analysis.

564
00:38:58,232 --> 00:39:00,432
Hiatus would be understandable, but a real pity.

565
00:39:00,532 --> 00:39:01,372
Well, thank you very much.

566
00:39:01,452 --> 00:39:02,912
Thanks, Juke, for taking the time to boost.

567
00:39:03,732 --> 00:39:04,532
Hope to hear from you again.

568
00:39:05,292 --> 00:39:08,812
Mudum 8 comes in with 36,720 satoshis.

569
00:39:09,472 --> 00:39:11,172
I'm just guessing I got that right.

570
00:39:11,232 --> 00:39:11,852
Oh, my God.

571
00:39:11,912 --> 00:39:13,392
This drawer is filled with broodlobes.

572
00:39:13,572 --> 00:39:17,132
I purchased Mudum at TWIB with coupon code TWIB for 20% off.

573
00:39:17,132 --> 00:39:19,732
50% of the proceeds to Chris via this boost.

574
00:39:20,172 --> 00:39:23,212
Get an at Twib or at this week in Bitcoin name

575
00:39:23,212 --> 00:39:27,632
and support the show by downloading spaceswallet.com.

576
00:39:27,632 --> 00:39:30,452
That is spacesprotocol.org for more information.

577
00:39:31,212 --> 00:39:33,112
And check your contact info and let's chat.

578
00:39:33,812 --> 00:39:37,552
Oh, spaceswallet.com and visit spacesprotocol.org

579
00:39:37,552 --> 00:39:39,132
and grab your username today.

580
00:39:39,532 --> 00:39:42,092
Thank you very much, Mudder Mate, for the boost.

581
00:39:42,252 --> 00:39:43,052
Appreciate you.

582
00:39:43,052 --> 00:39:48,352
a Monday is here with 35,555 Satoshis.

583
00:39:53,632 --> 00:39:55,532
Twib is my number one podcast.

584
00:39:55,652 --> 00:39:57,932
I always listen to it as soon as an episode comes out.

585
00:39:58,532 --> 00:40:00,792
Even Lup, I just listen to sometimes during the week,

586
00:40:00,872 --> 00:40:02,172
but Twib, it's on top.

587
00:40:03,772 --> 00:40:05,132
It's okay, I don't tell the boys.

588
00:40:05,552 --> 00:40:08,052
Late report back, but the Bitcoin convergence was,

589
00:40:08,252 --> 00:40:08,952
convergence?

590
00:40:09,232 --> 00:40:10,512
Or maybe coverage was great.

591
00:40:10,632 --> 00:40:12,152
A lot of, oh, oh, oh.

592
00:40:12,592 --> 00:40:13,292
Bitcoin convergence.

593
00:40:13,552 --> 00:40:18,472
Lots of people from Portland and Seattle spent the whole day talking Bitcoin networking and exchanging goods for real money.

594
00:40:18,652 --> 00:40:19,872
And they plan to do it again next year.

595
00:40:19,932 --> 00:40:20,912
That's so great.

596
00:40:21,092 --> 00:40:21,952
I would love to go.

597
00:40:22,632 --> 00:40:23,352
Oh, this year.

598
00:40:23,892 --> 00:40:24,932
This has been a year.

599
00:40:25,452 --> 00:40:26,512
This has really been a year.

600
00:40:26,892 --> 00:40:28,212
But with support like this, I could probably go.

601
00:40:28,272 --> 00:40:29,272
Thank you, Amunday.

602
00:40:29,412 --> 00:40:30,192
I appreciate you.

603
00:40:30,752 --> 00:40:35,312
Kiwi Bitcoin guides back with 33,333 satoshis.

604
00:40:35,632 --> 00:40:36,552
Well, I'll be dim.

605
00:40:36,552 --> 00:40:37,352
There he is.

606
00:40:37,412 --> 00:40:37,932
He's a good guy.

607
00:40:38,012 --> 00:40:38,492
He's a great guy.

608
00:40:38,512 --> 00:40:39,172
He's a real good guy.

609
00:40:39,312 --> 00:40:39,972
No, he's a great guy.

610
00:40:40,092 --> 00:40:40,312
Mm-hmm.

611
00:40:40,452 --> 00:40:40,832
Mm-hmm.

612
00:40:40,832 --> 00:40:42,792
You're doing very well.

613
00:40:42,912 --> 00:40:46,372
Now, Chris, just between you and me, there will be no more talk of you not continuing twip.

614
00:40:47,132 --> 00:40:50,112
And in finito, no more.

615
00:40:50,432 --> 00:40:52,252
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

616
00:40:53,572 --> 00:40:55,292
All right. All right. Very good.

617
00:40:55,432 --> 00:40:57,292
You make me want to be a better man.

618
00:40:57,412 --> 00:40:59,132
Thanks, Kiwi. It's good to hear from you.

619
00:40:59,472 --> 00:41:01,712
And when I'm feeling it this week, that is for sure.

620
00:41:02,392 --> 00:41:04,072
MDS is here with 30,000 sats.

621
00:41:04,472 --> 00:41:06,332
Tough little ship. Little.

622
00:41:07,092 --> 00:41:08,972
Damn, Chris, crazy you don't get more sats.

623
00:41:08,972 --> 00:41:10,352
It's my absolute favorite.

624
00:41:10,832 --> 00:41:12,172
How many listeners do you get a week?

625
00:41:12,252 --> 00:41:16,312
Have you considered offering early access for a fee and delaying Spotify releases?

626
00:41:16,752 --> 00:41:18,052
I didn't think you're on Spotify either.

627
00:41:18,212 --> 00:41:18,412
Ew.

628
00:41:18,732 --> 00:41:19,292
Am I on Spotify?

629
00:41:19,352 --> 00:41:20,232
Oh, yeah, no, I am.

630
00:41:20,252 --> 00:41:20,552
You're right.

631
00:41:20,612 --> 00:41:23,032
Yeah, because I got a notification that I got takedowns.

632
00:41:23,432 --> 00:41:24,312
So I am on Spotify.

633
00:41:25,152 --> 00:41:25,512
Spotify.

634
00:41:26,452 --> 00:41:27,032
How many listeners?

635
00:41:27,032 --> 00:41:31,432
I think roughly about 33,000 unique listeners every 90 days.

636
00:41:31,652 --> 00:41:33,432
It's not a ton, right, when you break it down.

637
00:41:33,532 --> 00:41:39,532
It's kind of a small show, but not bad considering it's been a bear market for a year and, you know, the show's been growing during that period.

638
00:41:39,532 --> 00:41:46,112
so I actually can't really complain because I kind of knew going into this that when the show

639
00:41:46,112 --> 00:41:50,212
goes into a bear market growth is going to slow and then when it goes into a bull market I kind of

640
00:41:50,212 --> 00:41:56,992
I hope I hope that growth kind of picks up a bit so it does take it does take a village to keep the

641
00:41:56,992 --> 00:42:02,192
show going and it's not a huge village thank you MDS and oh as far as like bonus content and stuff

642
00:42:02,192 --> 00:42:05,772
there may be more for the members I want to do that the thing is I really just kind of go pedal

643
00:42:05,772 --> 00:42:06,752
to the metal for the main show.

644
00:42:07,292 --> 00:42:09,192
And so I just have to come up with something

645
00:42:09,192 --> 00:42:11,752
that doesn't take away from focus and energy

646
00:42:11,752 --> 00:42:12,452
into the main show.

647
00:42:12,572 --> 00:42:14,452
And that I'm still trying to find the balance of

648
00:42:14,452 --> 00:42:15,992
in between doing the show.

649
00:42:16,192 --> 00:42:17,052
But thank you, MDS.

650
00:42:17,172 --> 00:42:17,712
Appreciate you.

651
00:42:18,232 --> 00:42:21,472
Anon comes in with 25,500 sats.

652
00:42:22,052 --> 00:42:22,732
Let's go.

653
00:42:23,112 --> 00:42:24,852
Twib is a staple of my content consumption.

654
00:42:25,032 --> 00:42:26,752
Please keep up the great work that you're doing.

655
00:42:27,252 --> 00:42:29,112
Do you have any options for a fountain wallet

656
00:42:29,112 --> 00:42:29,792
and the company?

657
00:42:29,892 --> 00:42:31,832
Do you have any opinions on fountain wallet

658
00:42:31,832 --> 00:42:32,772
and the company itself?

659
00:42:33,832 --> 00:42:34,372
Well, sure.

660
00:42:35,192 --> 00:42:35,472
Yeah.

661
00:42:35,472 --> 00:42:36,492
Yeah, I have a lot.

662
00:42:36,932 --> 00:42:41,372
I think, you know, I like what Fountain is doing as a platform hosting provider a lot.

663
00:42:41,752 --> 00:42:49,332
I use it to host Twib, and they have leaned into making agentic workflows for publishing and managing your podcast.

664
00:42:50,152 --> 00:42:53,012
It's probably the best out of anybody anywhere that's doing it.

665
00:42:53,332 --> 00:42:56,312
So I like that, but I think it does come at the expense of focus on the app.

666
00:42:56,792 --> 00:43:01,872
But thankfully, the podcasting Tudor standard is such that there are a lot of great podcasting apps you can move about.

667
00:43:01,872 --> 00:43:06,352
and lightning is such that you can move your stats to a different wall pretty easy like albi hub or

668
00:43:06,352 --> 00:43:20,002
we also have the web boost so i i don know where that goes like that what i i say like let wait and see but as far as like as a company I think they really on to something pretty great and are way ahead of anybody else on the hosting side It just not what they really known for yet

669
00:43:20,302 --> 00:43:21,642
But I think they're going to work to change that.

670
00:43:22,162 --> 00:43:22,602
Thank you, Anod.

671
00:43:22,762 --> 00:43:23,622
Appreciate you.

672
00:43:24,782 --> 00:43:30,182
Cypher Citizen comes in with 22,222 Satoshis.

673
00:43:30,342 --> 00:43:32,162
This old duck still got it.

674
00:43:32,202 --> 00:43:32,882
A McDuck boost.

675
00:43:33,202 --> 00:43:34,002
Keep up the good work.

676
00:43:34,002 --> 00:43:37,242
This show is the podcast I look forward to the most week to week.

677
00:43:37,242 --> 00:43:44,102
you guys really that is awesome i mean think about that that really is amazing to hear thank

678
00:43:44,102 --> 00:43:50,822
you very much cdubs also sent in a row of mcducks things are looking up for all the duck no message

679
00:43:50,822 --> 00:43:56,582
just value and a frothy mix i think is probably how you say it sent in a row of ducks but since

680
00:43:56,582 --> 00:44:01,682
we've had a couple of those i'm gonna give you an aflac aflac there you go uh i love your show

681
00:44:01,682 --> 00:44:05,882
it encouraged me to get a bit key and start moving my bitcoin away from cash app to real

682
00:44:05,882 --> 00:44:09,322
self-custody wallet. I like the multi-sig infrastructure and the ability to recover

683
00:44:09,322 --> 00:44:15,262
my wallet and set up inheritance in case of my eventual demise. The BitKey is a bit pricey,

684
00:44:15,342 --> 00:44:18,822
but I love the way it feels in the hand. Keep up the good work and stick to value for value.

685
00:44:18,902 --> 00:44:24,082
It makes John C. Dvorak and the Podfather proud. Thanks, Frothy. You know, I think the BitKey,

686
00:44:24,082 --> 00:44:29,722
there is something to that because I've bought and bought and I've purchased two for family

687
00:44:29,722 --> 00:44:38,022
members and they always remarked on the feel in the hand. They always did. And what makes me feel

688
00:44:38,022 --> 00:44:42,942
really good about it is they don't have to manage a seed phrase with BitKey. It does mean you're

689
00:44:42,942 --> 00:44:46,762
relying on the BitKey infrastructure being online, although they do have a break glass methodology

690
00:44:46,762 --> 00:44:51,582
that allows you to switch wallets without their infrastructure. But in order for day-to-day

691
00:44:51,582 --> 00:44:56,842
operations to work beyond spend limits, their infrastructure has to be online. That's the

692
00:44:56,842 --> 00:45:01,662
downside, I doubt blocks going anywhere. They seem like one of the more solid tech companies

693
00:45:01,662 --> 00:45:06,662
and one of the more solid companies in the space. So I think if you're going to bet on a company in

694
00:45:06,662 --> 00:45:11,982
the space blocks, probably one of them, who knows, you know, but I did have a clanker do an extensive

695
00:45:11,982 --> 00:45:17,142
review using one of the high end models of the block infrastructure. And they're using the state

696
00:45:17,142 --> 00:45:22,642
of the art Amazon in cloud, you know, enclaves for private keys where they can't even see them.

697
00:45:22,642 --> 00:45:27,162
block staff can't even see them. They're taking advantage of all of like the really crazy high end

698
00:45:27,162 --> 00:45:33,582
encryption stuff that Amazon has to offer. So like the threat to the bit key from the analysis I got

699
00:45:33,582 --> 00:45:39,402
was really it's OK, when quantum computers come along and they can crack SSL and they can do

700
00:45:39,402 --> 00:45:43,022
sufficient man in the middle attacks and they know who you are and they know who your ISP is

701
00:45:43,022 --> 00:45:46,982
and then get between you and Amazon Web Services. That's when you need to start worrying about the

702
00:45:46,982 --> 00:45:51,882
bit key. But we're going to know when that's coming. That's the more likely attack surface

703
00:45:51,882 --> 00:45:54,382
than an employee at Block.

704
00:45:54,782 --> 00:45:55,902
Now, there always could be vulnerabilities

705
00:45:55,902 --> 00:45:56,902
like in the app or something,

706
00:45:57,062 --> 00:45:58,762
but I think part of it is open source.

707
00:45:59,482 --> 00:46:00,702
All right, well, there you go.

708
00:46:01,142 --> 00:46:02,322
Jeez, I really got into it.

709
00:46:02,342 --> 00:46:03,422
But thanks, Frothy, appreciate you.

710
00:46:03,842 --> 00:46:05,582
Marius also sent an a row of McDucks.

711
00:46:05,622 --> 00:46:07,262
This old duck still got it.

712
00:46:07,302 --> 00:46:08,362
No message, just value.

713
00:46:08,482 --> 00:46:09,622
And SleetSat stacks,

714
00:46:09,722 --> 00:46:11,262
which I always get wrong saying ducks.

715
00:46:11,282 --> 00:46:13,262
Things are looking up for old duck ducks.

716
00:46:13,302 --> 00:46:13,982
Another McDuck.

717
00:46:14,322 --> 00:46:16,002
My commute is three to four hours a day,

718
00:46:16,102 --> 00:46:17,102
three days per week.

719
00:46:17,202 --> 00:46:18,102
I need Twib.

720
00:46:18,502 --> 00:46:20,422
It's the only podcast I listen to twice.

721
00:46:20,622 --> 00:46:21,442
Wow, really awesome.

722
00:46:21,882 --> 00:46:23,922
I signed, signed, Slee stats.

723
00:46:24,362 --> 00:46:24,622
Nope.

724
00:46:25,282 --> 00:46:26,862
I think I just got a brain thing.

725
00:46:27,422 --> 00:46:28,722
Slee, he even wrote it out for me, guys.

726
00:46:29,062 --> 00:46:29,862
Slee stack stats.

727
00:46:29,982 --> 00:46:32,682
P.S. Lurks needs to show some love and boost some stats.

728
00:46:32,862 --> 00:46:33,702
He did earlier.

729
00:46:33,902 --> 00:46:36,562
I mean, I'm just so embarrassed that I can't say your name.

730
00:46:36,622 --> 00:46:37,122
It's so bad.

731
00:46:37,342 --> 00:46:39,042
And yet I still so appreciate you.

732
00:46:39,322 --> 00:46:40,182
Thank you very much.

733
00:46:40,422 --> 00:46:41,602
Slee stack stats.

734
00:46:42,462 --> 00:46:44,662
User 13 came in with 21,000 stats.

735
00:46:46,962 --> 00:46:48,122
Oi, Chief Oi Boost.

736
00:46:48,222 --> 00:46:48,962
Chief Tommy here.

737
00:46:49,362 --> 00:46:51,062
Thanks for creating one of the best shows in Bitcoin.

738
00:46:51,062 --> 00:46:52,922
and value for value is a bitch sometimes.

739
00:46:53,302 --> 00:46:54,382
We all want it to be the standard,

740
00:46:54,482 --> 00:46:55,822
but not sure it's realistic long-term.

741
00:46:56,202 --> 00:46:57,502
In the age of free content,

742
00:46:57,702 --> 00:46:58,942
I would consider sponsorships

743
00:46:58,942 --> 00:47:00,742
if you would make it worth your time.

744
00:47:01,102 --> 00:47:01,782
Long live TWIP.

745
00:47:02,402 --> 00:47:03,762
I appreciate the flexibility there.

746
00:47:03,922 --> 00:47:04,782
Thank you, user 13.

747
00:47:05,442 --> 00:47:06,282
And message received.

748
00:47:06,722 --> 00:47:07,882
I mean, this week showing that

749
00:47:07,882 --> 00:47:10,042
when the community rallies,

750
00:47:10,042 --> 00:47:11,502
it really can make a difference, right?

751
00:47:11,542 --> 00:47:13,602
It's this, it's of course the sustainability of it,

752
00:47:13,682 --> 00:47:14,562
but thank you, sir.

753
00:47:15,202 --> 00:47:16,942
OB comes in with 21,000 sets.

754
00:47:18,962 --> 00:47:20,162
You know, it's a great movie.

755
00:47:20,782 --> 00:47:23,942
Obi writes, Twib is by far my most expensive subscription.

756
00:47:24,722 --> 00:47:25,382
Sorry, dude.

757
00:47:25,702 --> 00:47:26,662
He says, I love it.

758
00:47:27,402 --> 00:47:29,762
What Bitcoin did has degraded a bit.

759
00:47:30,022 --> 00:47:30,882
RHR is gone.

760
00:47:31,102 --> 00:47:31,842
Preston is done.

761
00:47:31,982 --> 00:47:33,762
Blue collar Bitcoin disappeared and so on.

762
00:47:34,162 --> 00:47:35,542
If you love doing it, continue.

763
00:47:35,662 --> 00:47:36,282
If not, call today.

764
00:47:36,422 --> 00:47:37,102
Respect it either way.

765
00:47:37,182 --> 00:47:37,622
Thank you, Obi.

766
00:47:37,682 --> 00:47:38,302
I do love it.

767
00:47:38,782 --> 00:47:39,602
I mean, it's hard.

768
00:47:39,722 --> 00:47:43,922
So it's like, it's anything you have to do on the regular, sort of like a daily routine

769
00:47:43,922 --> 00:47:44,902
that's a bit of a grind.

770
00:47:45,422 --> 00:47:47,482
I imagine if I exercised, it'd be a bit like that.

771
00:47:47,522 --> 00:47:47,902
I don't know.

772
00:47:49,442 --> 00:47:50,042
Thanks, Obi.

773
00:47:50,162 --> 00:47:52,802
Too busy prepping the show, though.

774
00:47:53,242 --> 00:47:56,402
Chance of Dizzy Spells is back with 21,000 sats.

775
00:47:58,122 --> 00:47:59,042
I love it.

776
00:48:04,262 --> 00:48:05,382
Chance of Dizzy Spells writes,

777
00:48:05,462 --> 00:48:06,842
your show's value is really appreciated.

778
00:48:07,002 --> 00:48:07,862
Here's some in return.

779
00:48:07,962 --> 00:48:08,322
Overdue.

780
00:48:08,402 --> 00:48:09,022
Sorry about that.

781
00:48:09,102 --> 00:48:09,462
Please up.

782
00:48:09,662 --> 00:48:10,862
Keep up the great work.

783
00:48:11,182 --> 00:48:12,482
Well, thank you very much, Chance.

784
00:48:12,482 --> 00:48:13,442
Nice to hear from you.

785
00:48:13,962 --> 00:48:16,662
And to round us out, we do have a few more.

786
00:48:16,662 --> 00:48:23,142
User 26 came in with 5,000, 20,000, 25,000, 225 cents.

787
00:48:23,242 --> 00:48:23,522
I'm sorry.

788
00:48:23,622 --> 00:48:26,102
I'm just, I'm still laughing, which I appreciate.

789
00:48:26,802 --> 00:48:27,522
Axelrod says,

790
00:48:27,602 --> 00:48:30,222
SideDuck is the name of our local Bitcoin meetup in Ventura.

791
00:48:30,682 --> 00:48:31,942
You can check out the Orange Club app.

792
00:48:32,222 --> 00:48:33,662
Hope your show stays on course.

793
00:48:34,142 --> 00:48:36,002
I really value your take on Bitcoin economics.

794
00:48:36,662 --> 00:48:37,362
Thank you very much.

795
00:48:37,642 --> 00:48:39,702
Take me out with a stronghold email soundbite.

796
00:48:39,782 --> 00:48:40,262
You got it.

797
00:48:40,362 --> 00:48:42,082
I know, I don't know if I, do I have the email one?

798
00:48:42,562 --> 00:48:44,462
I know I have, this is my favorite one.

799
00:48:44,822 --> 00:48:45,862
Linux or something.

800
00:48:46,102 --> 00:48:46,982
I know I've got that.

801
00:48:47,582 --> 00:48:48,502
I wonder what else I have.

802
00:48:48,522 --> 00:48:50,282
Yep, that stands up to scrutiny.

803
00:48:50,562 --> 00:48:51,482
Mm-hmm, I got that.

804
00:48:52,042 --> 00:48:53,122
You know, I got one I need to play.

805
00:48:53,262 --> 00:48:54,722
I got one I just need to get out of my system.

806
00:48:54,942 --> 00:48:55,582
I'll play that soon.

807
00:48:56,082 --> 00:48:57,402
Thank you very, very much.

808
00:48:57,482 --> 00:48:57,942
Appreciate you.

809
00:48:58,522 --> 00:49:01,862
Code 27 came in with a row of ducks, 2,222 sats.

810
00:49:02,822 --> 00:49:03,982
No message, just value.

811
00:49:04,182 --> 00:49:07,162
And Philip is here with 10,000 satoshis.

812
00:49:07,722 --> 00:49:09,682
It's over 9,000!

813
00:49:10,442 --> 00:49:11,222
Nice to hear from you.

814
00:49:11,342 --> 00:49:12,322
Lots to say this week, Chris,

815
00:49:12,362 --> 00:49:14,882
and I don't think being a news-based show should be a fatal flaw.

816
00:49:15,242 --> 00:49:18,462
I'm pretty sure it's your style and creative flair, which makes the show special and different.

817
00:49:18,462 --> 00:49:23,602
Once Bitcoin goes bull, you can segue into development infrastructure or energy and new use cases.

818
00:49:23,702 --> 00:49:25,762
The content with Bitcoin is endless and compelling.

819
00:49:26,542 --> 00:49:29,022
Just got to be presented with humor and pizzazz.

820
00:49:29,162 --> 00:49:31,902
I, too, wish I could just jazz around and attend Bitcoin events.

821
00:49:31,962 --> 00:49:32,562
Don't we all?

822
00:49:32,662 --> 00:49:34,602
And also just have endless food and friends.

823
00:49:35,042 --> 00:49:36,182
But not with my work.

824
00:49:36,242 --> 00:49:38,182
I have three jobs and I got to pay the rent.

825
00:49:38,262 --> 00:49:39,202
Yeah, I hear you, Philip.

826
00:49:39,682 --> 00:49:40,482
I hear you.

827
00:49:41,002 --> 00:49:42,062
Maybe I did the math.

828
00:49:42,262 --> 00:49:43,822
I don't want to tell you the hours I work.

829
00:49:43,822 --> 00:49:45,562
but last night the wife and I did the math.

830
00:49:45,982 --> 00:49:48,002
Maybe one day in the not too distant future,

831
00:49:48,002 --> 00:49:49,142
we'll be able to just sit back.

832
00:49:49,242 --> 00:49:49,902
Hang in there, Chris.

833
00:49:50,402 --> 00:49:51,222
We love what you do,

834
00:49:51,282 --> 00:49:51,882
but I totally get it.

835
00:49:51,922 --> 00:49:54,182
If you need to scoop more value elsewhere, Philippa.

836
00:49:54,502 --> 00:49:55,022
Thank you, Philippa.

837
00:49:55,082 --> 00:49:57,142
You know, that's what we're working towards, right?

838
00:49:57,282 --> 00:49:58,942
It's all a matter of time preference.

839
00:49:59,822 --> 00:50:01,302
And honestly, there's, you know,

840
00:50:01,942 --> 00:50:03,162
I'm very lucky to get to StackSats

841
00:50:03,162 --> 00:50:04,922
doing what I love doing, right?

842
00:50:05,002 --> 00:50:07,442
So I don't ever lose perspective of that.

843
00:50:07,562 --> 00:50:09,402
It's always just a matter of also,

844
00:50:09,962 --> 00:50:11,582
you know, like you said, paying the rent.

845
00:50:11,842 --> 00:50:12,382
Thank you.

846
00:50:12,662 --> 00:50:13,482
Nice to hear from you.

847
00:50:13,822 --> 00:50:18,702
User 14 is here with 18,121 sats.

848
00:50:18,822 --> 00:50:20,762
Chunky Cheese Guy with it.

849
00:50:20,962 --> 00:50:21,382
There it is.

850
00:50:21,442 --> 00:50:22,182
I just had to play it.

851
00:50:22,642 --> 00:50:23,322
Keep up the great work.

852
00:50:23,402 --> 00:50:24,622
So much signal, so little noise.

853
00:50:24,722 --> 00:50:25,502
Thank you, User 14.

854
00:50:25,682 --> 00:50:26,402
Appreciate you.

855
00:50:26,962 --> 00:50:29,702
Turbo's here with 10,101 sats.

856
00:50:31,042 --> 00:50:31,742
Chin up, brother.

857
00:50:32,082 --> 00:50:33,842
Thanks for the effort you put into the episodes.

858
00:50:33,982 --> 00:50:34,642
I love the format.

859
00:50:34,822 --> 00:50:37,342
Audio is always excellent, and the content is always tip top.

860
00:50:37,602 --> 00:50:39,462
Thank you from all the way across the pond.

861
00:50:39,462 --> 00:50:40,262
Appreciate you.

862
00:50:40,562 --> 00:50:41,722
Hey, Gene Bean's here.

863
00:50:41,822 --> 00:50:43,022
Hello, Gene Bean.

864
00:50:43,022 --> 00:50:45,462
Gene Bean's here with 7,222 sets.

865
00:50:45,662 --> 00:50:46,822
The traders love the vol.

866
00:50:47,662 --> 00:50:48,402
Come on, people.

867
00:50:48,482 --> 00:50:49,342
Keep Chris on the air.

868
00:50:50,042 --> 00:50:52,702
Also, bless him and the 5% on Treasury note.

869
00:50:53,542 --> 00:50:58,282
I'll go out on a limb and project it will get much more than 5% over the next 10 years on our Bitcoin.

870
00:50:58,722 --> 00:51:01,882
By the way, second boost that is a lot like the first was on fountains.

871
00:51:01,962 --> 00:51:03,682
Just so peeps out there on Nostra would see the message.

872
00:51:03,762 --> 00:51:04,362
Oh, thank you.

873
00:51:04,682 --> 00:51:05,982
Yeah, the Nostra way is a good way.

874
00:51:05,982 --> 00:51:13,342
I have been thinking about setting up a Twib X account and posting clips.

875
00:51:13,962 --> 00:51:17,702
I hate it, but I, you know, I don't think I would do it directly.

876
00:51:17,802 --> 00:51:20,662
I think I would make the clanker do it, but I would make sure the clanker does it well.

877
00:51:20,722 --> 00:51:22,062
I would review it, but I don't know.

878
00:51:22,402 --> 00:51:23,342
I just hate social media.

879
00:51:23,482 --> 00:51:27,582
But I do think it would probably be a good idea for me to do something like that.

880
00:51:27,942 --> 00:51:28,482
Thank you, Gene.

881
00:51:29,142 --> 00:51:29,862
Perseates you.

882
00:51:30,742 --> 00:51:32,142
T is here with 10,000 sats.

883
00:51:32,422 --> 00:51:33,602
Thank you very much.

884
00:51:33,882 --> 00:51:35,362
And here's something for your trouble.

885
00:51:35,362 --> 00:51:40,502
Keep Twib alive, my favorite podcast, and not just in the Bitcoin space. Wow. Thank you. Thank you,

886
00:51:40,542 --> 00:51:46,862
T. I really appreciate that. You guys, the signal on that is really something. Just wait till I tell

887
00:51:46,862 --> 00:51:57,712
the wife tonight DJW comes in with 19 sets Boosting the sad puppy I know Thanks for all you do

888
00:51:58,232 --> 00:51:58,932
Y'all be good.

889
00:51:59,112 --> 00:52:00,332
Thanks, DJW.

890
00:52:00,452 --> 00:52:01,672
I do appreciate it.

891
00:52:01,992 --> 00:52:03,692
You know, sometimes it is a little sad.

892
00:52:04,292 --> 00:52:06,112
PJ's here with 15,000 sats.

893
00:52:06,872 --> 00:52:08,332
I need more spending sats.

894
00:52:08,992 --> 00:52:10,752
Should have got more before the pump.

895
00:52:10,892 --> 00:52:13,112
Yeah, don't we always say that, PJ?

896
00:52:15,052 --> 00:52:15,772
Don't we?

897
00:52:16,252 --> 00:52:17,112
Should have bought more.

898
00:52:17,392 --> 00:52:19,212
User 85 is here with 2,000 sats.

899
00:52:19,292 --> 00:52:20,732
Coming in hot with the boost.

900
00:52:20,832 --> 00:52:21,652
Thanks from Germany.

901
00:52:21,772 --> 00:52:22,212
Keep her up.

902
00:52:22,452 --> 00:52:23,012
Don't stop.

903
00:52:23,092 --> 00:52:23,632
Well, thank you.

904
00:52:23,732 --> 00:52:24,452
Appreciate that.

905
00:52:24,832 --> 00:52:27,232
Yukon Cornelius is here with 5,000 sats.

906
00:52:27,332 --> 00:52:28,072
This is the way.

907
00:52:28,272 --> 00:52:33,072
Chris, can you help us understand how much support it would take to keep the show going?

908
00:52:33,512 --> 00:52:36,292
I love your show and it's been a weekly listen for me since the Bitcoin Dad pod.

909
00:52:36,352 --> 00:52:38,992
I'm always listening in the car, so I sometimes forget to boost.

910
00:52:40,112 --> 00:52:44,692
I've heard this suggested before that maybe I should come up with basically a weekly goal

911
00:52:44,692 --> 00:52:46,872
so we can kind of together keep track of how it's going.

912
00:52:47,392 --> 00:52:48,812
I am open to that idea.

913
00:52:48,912 --> 00:52:49,432
I would just, you know,

914
00:52:49,452 --> 00:52:51,012
I was sitting down with the wife just recently,

915
00:52:51,112 --> 00:52:52,592
kind of going through the numbers,

916
00:52:53,372 --> 00:52:56,232
trying to figure out what my hours are

917
00:52:56,232 --> 00:52:57,472
and all of that across JB.

918
00:52:57,872 --> 00:52:59,812
So I'm kind of already doing the math.

919
00:52:59,892 --> 00:53:00,652
I would be up to that.

920
00:53:00,772 --> 00:53:02,172
I might think about that

921
00:53:02,172 --> 00:53:03,212
if that's something people are interested.

922
00:53:03,312 --> 00:53:05,532
I've always kind of thought the philosophy was

923
00:53:05,532 --> 00:53:06,432
is what you value it,

924
00:53:06,512 --> 00:53:08,332
but maybe a goalpost would be useful.

925
00:53:09,092 --> 00:53:10,632
I'd love to hear more people's thoughts.

926
00:53:11,412 --> 00:53:11,892
Thanks, Yukon.

927
00:53:12,632 --> 00:53:15,072
Brewgators here with 4,321 sats.

928
00:53:15,352 --> 00:53:16,012
Roger that.

929
00:53:16,012 --> 00:53:19,372
Told myself I was going to boost more often, but I keep forgetting, to be honest.

930
00:53:19,772 --> 00:53:20,832
So I just subscribed instead.

931
00:53:21,032 --> 00:53:22,092
Thanks for all the hard work you do.

932
00:53:22,212 --> 00:53:23,972
Oh, well, thank you very much.

933
00:53:24,032 --> 00:53:24,692
Yes, sir.

934
00:53:24,832 --> 00:53:26,072
Sirty, sir, sir, sir.

935
00:53:26,172 --> 00:53:27,132
Appreciate you, Brewgator.

936
00:53:27,252 --> 00:53:28,152
I like that name, too.

937
00:53:28,832 --> 00:53:30,872
Ripcord's here with 5,000 sats.

938
00:53:30,952 --> 00:53:32,232
The traders love the vol.

939
00:53:32,392 --> 00:53:32,912
Yeah, they do.

940
00:53:33,172 --> 00:53:33,732
Yeah, they do.

941
00:53:34,132 --> 00:53:34,592
But why?

942
00:53:35,092 --> 00:53:36,352
Because they're DGens.

943
00:53:37,152 --> 00:53:37,512
Boostage.

944
00:53:37,632 --> 00:53:38,172
Thank you, Ripcord.

945
00:53:38,232 --> 00:53:38,772
Appreciate it.

946
00:53:39,492 --> 00:53:41,632
Amade 2004 is here with 2,100 sats.

947
00:53:41,832 --> 00:53:42,552
That's right, everybody.

948
00:53:42,632 --> 00:53:43,912
It's that time of year again.

949
00:53:44,292 --> 00:53:45,132
Happy birthday.

950
00:53:45,132 --> 00:53:47,112
That was random and not the right one.

951
00:53:47,612 --> 00:53:48,632
And all thumbs up.

952
00:53:48,732 --> 00:53:50,932
Paranoid Coders here with 2,000 sats, no message.

953
00:53:51,092 --> 00:53:53,692
And Love Down Babylon's back with 4,000 sats.

954
00:53:53,892 --> 00:53:55,012
Rock and roll.

955
00:53:55,592 --> 00:53:56,392
Give us a goal.

956
00:53:57,192 --> 00:53:57,672
Oh, okay.

957
00:53:57,772 --> 00:54:00,852
I also think you could use more light news to cover the other stuff about the ecosystem.

958
00:54:01,032 --> 00:54:02,292
I will stay tuned to the updates.

959
00:54:02,932 --> 00:54:06,072
Been listening since the Bitcoin Dad pod, and your opinion is also Signal.

960
00:54:06,532 --> 00:54:07,092
Maybe guess.

961
00:54:07,152 --> 00:54:07,892
I've thought about it.

962
00:54:08,412 --> 00:54:11,232
Guess audio tends to be rough and slow momentum.

963
00:54:11,232 --> 00:54:13,692
and I think you could almost see that

964
00:54:13,692 --> 00:54:15,492
as more like a special edition of the show,

965
00:54:15,612 --> 00:54:16,692
like a bonus episode,

966
00:54:16,852 --> 00:54:19,092
or when I'm traveling, get the right guest.

967
00:54:19,192 --> 00:54:20,132
I could see that, you know?

968
00:54:20,752 --> 00:54:22,072
Chris, I've been unemployed for 11 months.

969
00:54:22,112 --> 00:54:23,732
I only have 13,000 sats in my wallet,

970
00:54:23,832 --> 00:54:26,052
but I'm almost tapped on savings.

971
00:54:26,132 --> 00:54:28,132
I haven't made a dime on my own value for value show yet,

972
00:54:28,712 --> 00:54:30,812
but I pay hosting on faith and still boost your stream

973
00:54:30,812 --> 00:54:32,872
because I believe in value for value 100%.

974
00:54:32,872 --> 00:54:35,172
No, 21,000%.

975
00:54:35,172 --> 00:54:36,032
Keep rocking.

976
00:54:36,332 --> 00:54:37,252
I'm a ride or die, bro,

977
00:54:37,572 --> 00:54:38,552
and Twib is high value.

978
00:54:38,672 --> 00:54:39,432
Thank you so much.

979
00:54:39,892 --> 00:54:40,932
Man, love Down Babylon.

980
00:54:41,112 --> 00:54:41,472
Thank you.

981
00:54:41,572 --> 00:54:42,572
Appreciate you, Lurks.

982
00:54:42,752 --> 00:54:43,052
Damn.

983
00:54:43,152 --> 00:54:45,012
You make me want to be a better man.

984
00:54:45,132 --> 00:54:47,312
And good luck with the new pod, Love Down Babylon.

985
00:54:47,872 --> 00:54:48,772
Good luck with that.

986
00:54:49,552 --> 00:54:50,492
And you know what I say?

987
00:54:50,772 --> 00:54:51,852
You're doing a good job.

988
00:54:51,892 --> 00:54:52,512
That's what I say.

989
00:54:53,252 --> 00:54:57,872
The GWJW is here with 19,900 Satoshis.

990
00:55:01,512 --> 00:55:06,172
Are we able to, are we about to endure a wave of capitulation in the value for value world?

991
00:55:06,412 --> 00:55:07,052
Say it ain't so.

992
00:55:07,632 --> 00:55:08,692
You do what suits you best, sir.

993
00:55:08,692 --> 00:55:11,752
I'm a family man and you got a family man has to get paid.

994
00:55:11,952 --> 00:55:13,332
We'll see you on the other side.

995
00:55:13,332 --> 00:55:14,912
And we're grateful when we have you back.

996
00:55:15,192 --> 00:55:17,012
He says, oh, I had another split.

997
00:55:17,232 --> 00:55:17,592
Another.

998
00:55:17,752 --> 00:55:19,812
I wonder how many stats didn't actually make it because of that.

999
00:55:19,892 --> 00:55:20,672
Hopefully not too many.

1000
00:55:21,372 --> 00:55:23,252
Thankfully, it goes across a couple of nodes.

1001
00:55:23,292 --> 00:55:24,852
And so I've got it here, right?

1002
00:55:25,932 --> 00:55:26,632
But you know what?

1003
00:55:26,992 --> 00:55:27,592
We'll see.

1004
00:55:28,632 --> 00:55:29,232
We'll see.

1005
00:55:29,752 --> 00:55:32,652
It's always hard to tell because you have these moments where a lot of support comes in.

1006
00:55:33,132 --> 00:55:35,812
Nakamoto 6102 comes in with 7,000 Satoshis.

1007
00:55:36,752 --> 00:55:37,652
Thank you for the value.

1008
00:55:37,652 --> 00:55:41,172
Hopefully the boosts are more consistent so we can keep the W in Twib.

1009
00:55:42,492 --> 00:55:43,992
I love that.

1010
00:55:44,352 --> 00:55:45,712
Keep the W in Twib.

1011
00:55:46,112 --> 00:55:46,752
That's good.

1012
00:55:47,532 --> 00:55:48,092
That's good.

1013
00:55:48,352 --> 00:55:49,652
You're doing very well.

1014
00:55:50,532 --> 00:55:52,512
Sat Satoshan comes in with 5,000 sats.

1015
00:55:52,552 --> 00:55:54,652
That's a spicy meatball.

1016
00:55:54,952 --> 00:55:58,732
Where can I find information about how much money Bitcoin has settled as a medium of exchange

1017
00:55:58,732 --> 00:56:02,372
and how many millions are stored as a store of value in Bitcoin addresses on Chain and Lightning Network?

1018
00:56:02,792 --> 00:56:04,172
I think these are important metrics to follow.

1019
00:56:04,252 --> 00:56:04,952
They are on there.

1020
00:56:05,072 --> 00:56:05,752
They are out there.

1021
00:56:05,752 --> 00:56:10,252
there's a lot of different like quote unquote dashboards you could check you could check out

1022
00:56:10,252 --> 00:56:17,392
the clark moody dashboard bitwise has dash there's a lot of dashboards coin gecko has dashboards i

1023
00:56:17,392 --> 00:56:23,452
mean trading view there's so many ways it's really about knowing what to look up and the names of

1024
00:56:23,452 --> 00:56:28,632
these things that's the tricky part but you know with an lm they can help you get there like they

1025
00:56:28,632 --> 00:56:32,832
know what these things are they've indexed the crap out of it apparently so you can get there

1026
00:56:32,832 --> 00:56:34,592
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

1027
00:56:35,632 --> 00:56:37,712
And thank you, Satsun, for the boost.

1028
00:56:38,292 --> 00:56:41,912
Ace says, Bitcoin price stays sideways or up for the next 30 days.

1029
00:56:42,032 --> 00:56:43,732
I love it when you guys actually come in on the predictions.

1030
00:56:44,192 --> 00:56:44,692
Stay the course.

1031
00:56:45,092 --> 00:56:47,632
Inconsistencies in income is part of the Entrepreneur Party.

1032
00:56:48,092 --> 00:56:52,792
You know, Ace, I've really been kind of telling myself, like, this is just going to be a rougher

1033
00:56:52,792 --> 00:56:55,232
year in the history of my small business.

1034
00:56:55,992 --> 00:56:57,412
And those things happen.

1035
00:56:57,792 --> 00:57:00,612
You know, it's much like living on a farm, which I also do.

1036
00:57:00,612 --> 00:57:08,272
hey bitcoin which has seasons farms which have seasons and small businesses have seasons and

1037
00:57:08,272 --> 00:57:14,492
i'm in the middle of all of it i i maximized volatility apparently now ace you're giving me

1038
00:57:14,492 --> 00:57:18,852
an existential crisis now that i think about it but i appreciate the boost dragar is here with

1039
00:57:18,852 --> 00:57:27,432
our first baseballs boost of the week 12 345 sats so the combination is one two three four five

1040
00:57:27,432 --> 00:57:54,592
Hello from Tokyo. Maybe my biweekly, maybe a biweekly show would be more sustainable long term. Weekly is a pretty intense schedule. That's always an option, I suppose. You know, instead of going away, right? That could be an option. Biweekly is tricky because sometimes I guess biweekly paired with breaking news that I could see. Right. So if something happens, I have to break in a little bit more often. Thanks, Derek. Appreciate it. Sats over bits comes in with 10,000 sats.

1041
00:57:54,592 --> 00:57:57,012
They're real and they're spectacular.

1042
00:57:57,612 --> 00:58:00,032
You should consider doing a BIP 110 recap sometimes.

1043
00:58:00,152 --> 00:58:01,572
Some truly ridiculous stuff has happened.

1044
00:58:02,332 --> 00:58:03,712
Bcash Jr. land lately.

1045
00:58:04,032 --> 00:58:05,552
And thanks again for the best show on Bitcoin.

1046
00:58:06,172 --> 00:58:06,772
I know.

1047
00:58:07,192 --> 00:58:12,552
I would love more feedback on if I should continue to cover the BIP 110 S coin stuff.

1048
00:58:13,012 --> 00:58:18,352
I mean, now that it's just an altcoin, it doesn't really fall within the perspective of the show.

1049
00:58:18,872 --> 00:58:21,752
However, it is a fascinating tale.

1050
00:58:21,752 --> 00:58:31,352
It really there's so you could argue that maybe there's lessons to be learned there, but it could also turn into a lot of me just kind of pointing and laughing because it is at that level of ridiculousness.

1051
00:58:31,432 --> 00:58:34,292
There's not really a rational argument.

1052
00:58:34,792 --> 00:58:36,732
I mean, they would say there is, but it doesn't hold up.

1053
00:58:36,772 --> 00:58:36,952
Right.

1054
00:58:37,072 --> 00:58:40,552
So would love more feedback on the BIP 110 continued coverage.

1055
00:58:40,692 --> 00:58:41,532
It's a good idea.

1056
00:58:42,012 --> 00:58:42,992
Bun comes in with a road.

1057
00:58:44,392 --> 00:58:48,132
I appreciate that you keep us up to date on what's happening and around Bitcoin.

1058
00:58:48,572 --> 00:58:50,052
It'd be a shame to see the show go.

1059
00:58:50,492 --> 00:58:51,652
I've been giving it a lot of,

1060
00:58:51,772 --> 00:58:52,992
I've been having a lot of issues with Fountain

1061
00:58:52,992 --> 00:58:54,692
and it's been stopping me from being able to boost.

1062
00:58:54,812 --> 00:58:55,892
Oh, I'm sorry to hear that, Bun.

1063
00:58:56,232 --> 00:58:57,672
Well, we do have the, oh, you did.

1064
00:58:57,772 --> 00:58:58,472
You used the web boost.

1065
00:58:58,612 --> 00:58:59,112
There you go.

1066
00:58:59,232 --> 00:58:59,472
Okay.

1067
00:58:59,752 --> 00:59:01,272
Well, you've figured it out, Bun.

1068
00:59:01,272 --> 00:59:02,332
I don't got to tell you.

1069
00:59:02,652 --> 00:59:03,672
Nice to hear from you.

1070
00:59:03,992 --> 00:59:04,292
All right.

1071
00:59:04,372 --> 00:59:06,072
That's all of our SAP boosts.

1072
00:59:06,112 --> 00:59:07,032
Thank you, everybody.

1073
00:59:07,132 --> 00:59:07,792
That's incredible.

1074
00:59:08,732 --> 00:59:09,832
And we're going to wrap it up

1075
00:59:09,832 --> 00:59:11,572
with a little bit of Fiat boosts,

1076
00:59:11,572 --> 00:59:13,472
which are also very much appreciated,

1077
00:59:13,572 --> 00:59:15,572
especially I have some upcoming travel to Texas.

1078
00:59:16,132 --> 00:59:17,932
So it's a great opportunity to spend some Fiat.

1079
00:59:17,932 --> 00:59:19,952
And Department of Lulz is back.

1080
00:59:20,052 --> 00:59:20,832
with $100.

1081
00:59:32,292 --> 00:59:33,852
No message, just value.

1082
00:59:34,632 --> 00:59:36,332
Which, hey, that's great.

1083
00:59:36,492 --> 00:59:37,392
But let me know, department,

1084
00:59:37,472 --> 00:59:38,632
if that was a mistake or not.

1085
00:59:38,732 --> 00:59:39,232
Appreciate you.

1086
00:59:39,412 --> 00:59:41,632
Anonymous came in with $10 in fiat.

1087
00:59:41,772 --> 00:59:43,232
B-O-O-S-T.

1088
00:59:43,332 --> 00:59:44,532
Hope this helps fill in the gap.

1089
00:59:44,612 --> 00:59:45,292
Thank you, Anonymous.

1090
00:59:45,472 --> 00:59:46,472
Appreciate you.

1091
00:59:46,472 --> 00:59:50,792
And that is our boost above the 2000sat cutoff for the week.

1092
00:59:50,872 --> 00:59:51,632
That was a long one.

1093
00:59:52,052 --> 00:59:53,812
If you stuck with me, I really appreciate you.

1094
00:59:54,112 --> 00:59:57,072
And thank you, everybody who supported this episode or became a member.

1095
00:59:57,372 --> 01:00:00,492
This is probably going to be a 10-pole episode for the year.

1096
01:00:00,592 --> 01:00:03,312
We've got a real banger here, so let's wrap it all up.

1097
01:00:03,592 --> 01:00:06,292
We had 19 of you stream sats as you listened,

1098
01:00:06,412 --> 01:00:10,792
and collectively you stacked 33,584 satoshis.

1099
01:00:11,052 --> 01:00:12,052
Thank you very much.

1100
01:00:12,212 --> 01:00:15,612
When you combine that with the Fiat boost and the sat boost,

1101
01:00:15,612 --> 01:00:20,932
we're just gonna take fiat and value it at current sat market prices this

1102
01:00:20,932 --> 01:00:34,202
episode stacked 1 million eight hundred and ninety four thousand five hundred and twenty eight Bitcoin can you believe that That might be a record Getting close

1103
01:00:36,582 --> 01:00:37,662
It's incredible.

1104
01:00:37,962 --> 01:00:38,722
It's really impressive.

1105
01:00:38,882 --> 01:00:40,322
We had 42 native boosts.

1106
01:00:40,382 --> 01:00:42,202
We had 24 web boosts.

1107
01:00:43,122 --> 01:00:45,862
And of course, I mentioned the sat streamers as well.

1108
01:00:46,182 --> 01:00:49,422
It's a total of 73 boosts this episode.

1109
01:00:49,422 --> 01:00:51,562
That also feels like a high watermark.

1110
01:00:51,682 --> 01:00:52,802
It's an incredible signal.

1111
01:00:53,182 --> 01:00:54,282
Message received.

1112
01:00:54,662 --> 01:00:55,322
Thank you, everybody.

1113
01:00:55,322 --> 01:00:56,902
I would encourage you to keep supporting.

1114
01:00:57,022 --> 01:01:00,242
It's hard for me to ask after such an incredible amount of support.

1115
01:01:00,582 --> 01:01:03,102
I would appreciate that it continued to kind of level out.

1116
01:01:03,182 --> 01:01:06,422
And I would love also your feedback on goal markers for the show.

1117
01:01:06,822 --> 01:01:09,122
And maybe they get dynamically adjusted after a week like this.

1118
01:01:09,182 --> 01:01:09,862
Maybe. I don't know.

1119
01:01:10,082 --> 01:01:12,122
I don't know, but thank you very much.

1120
01:01:12,462 --> 01:01:15,102
Like I say, I can't wait to go home and tell the lady about this one.

1121
01:01:15,342 --> 01:01:17,642
And I have some great updates to wrap us up, too.

1122
01:01:20,442 --> 01:01:23,662
If you want to support the show, it's boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com

1123
01:01:23,662 --> 01:01:26,842
or Jupiter.party to become a member.

1124
01:01:27,402 --> 01:01:30,182
And when we do get fancy bootlegs, you get that automatically,

1125
01:01:30,402 --> 01:01:32,682
and all the other shows and their features.

1126
01:01:44,202 --> 01:01:48,102
But with that, let's talk just really briefly about Bonds.

1127
01:01:48,102 --> 01:02:00,082
I didn't want to dwell on this in the macro section, but it is the story still, especially for everybody else that's not a Bitcoiner.

1128
01:02:00,302 --> 01:02:02,582
They're only really talking about the Bitcoin market.

1129
01:02:03,082 --> 01:02:05,562
And old Rick at CNBC, he's retiring.

1130
01:02:06,082 --> 01:02:07,162
He's already announced his retirement.

1131
01:02:07,262 --> 01:02:08,322
He's on the way out the door.

1132
01:02:08,782 --> 01:02:10,922
And he kind of has short-term syndrome.

1133
01:02:11,282 --> 01:02:14,182
And this was his perspective on the state of the bond market.

1134
01:02:14,182 --> 01:02:24,422
I mean, Rick, it's worth pointing out how unusual it is to have five year yields rise 18 basis points in one session.

1135
01:02:25,262 --> 01:02:26,642
18 and equally unusual.

1136
01:02:26,842 --> 01:02:31,662
How unusual is it to have zero interest rates for seven years around the globe?

1137
01:02:31,862 --> 01:02:33,022
It's still unwind, you think?

1138
01:02:33,022 --> 01:02:36,742
This is the price we pay for manipulating and it's a normalization.

1139
01:02:36,742 --> 01:02:45,182
I'll give you something. Since 1980, the average yield on a 10 year note is around five and a half to 5.6 percent.

1140
01:02:45,302 --> 01:02:47,082
That should put things in perspective.

1141
01:02:47,582 --> 01:02:50,862
Now, you guys know I've been tracking Luke Roman. He sold Bitcoin.

1142
01:02:51,022 --> 01:02:53,542
He's been planning to buy it back, but might have missed his window now.

1143
01:02:53,982 --> 01:02:56,662
I also like to follow him because he's he's a very intelligent person.

1144
01:02:56,762 --> 01:03:01,922
He's got a he's got a great macro lens in which he views the market and he's weighed very heavily on gold.

1145
01:03:01,922 --> 01:03:03,482
So it's always kind of interesting to get his perspective.

1146
01:03:03,482 --> 01:03:07,522
and gold has been in an interesting spot since the summer, really.

1147
01:03:07,922 --> 01:03:11,482
And he was on Macroscopic and he talked about the debasement trade.

1148
01:03:11,862 --> 01:03:15,382
But I thought what was more interesting in there is he's getting bullish on Bitcoin.

1149
01:03:15,502 --> 01:03:17,322
You can kind of hear he's changing his position,

1150
01:03:17,682 --> 01:03:22,622
but he's OK with maybe not being on the upside of his most recent trade.

1151
01:03:23,222 --> 01:03:24,762
I think the debasement trade is back on,

1152
01:03:25,222 --> 01:03:29,943
which makes me want to buy gold, Bitcoin, silver and just accumulate.

1153
01:03:29,943 --> 01:03:38,642
there are times when i think the average person shouldn't be trading bitcoin i think they should

1154
01:03:38,642 --> 01:03:44,882
just be accumulating it i have twice before sold most of my bitcoin and both times bought back more

1155
01:03:44,882 --> 01:03:50,222
than i had when i started with some people would say that's unwise maybe it is i maybe i'll get

1156
01:03:50,222 --> 01:03:56,602
caught this time not being able to buy it all back and i'm also okay with that for multiple

1157
01:03:56,602 --> 01:04:03,142
reasons. Number one, sizing, age, tech unfamiliarity, right? So, you know, position sizing,

1158
01:04:03,242 --> 01:04:07,782
right? It was nearly half my liquid net worth because I bought a bunch when, you know, Peter

1159
01:04:07,782 --> 01:04:12,082
Zion got on Rogan and said it was going to zero. Like I remember the day vividly, I was like waving

1160
01:04:12,082 --> 01:04:19,722
it in and it worked, you know, 20 to whatever. And, you know, 20 to 95 in a few years, that's,

1161
01:04:19,802 --> 01:04:23,822
that's pretty good. When it's half your liquid net worth at my age and I'm over 50,

1162
01:04:23,822 --> 01:04:29,682
that makes you a little bit more, especially when I don't have the,

1163
01:04:30,582 --> 01:04:38,302
I can talk about all the ins and outs of gold much better than I can about all the ins and outs of Bitcoin.

1164
01:04:39,222 --> 01:04:41,282
And look, the...

1165
01:04:41,282 --> 01:04:45,002
Well, I mean, okay, I want to pause here because of course you can.

1166
01:04:45,722 --> 01:04:49,702
Gold's a rock. Bitcoin's a technology. It's a protocol. It's a network. It's a community.

1167
01:04:50,042 --> 01:04:51,982
It's significantly more complex.

1168
01:04:51,982 --> 01:04:57,542
so i don't know why that i mean i guess that's a reason but okay anyways i just want to point out

1169
01:04:57,542 --> 01:05:01,942
like of course you understand cold it's where it's really simple and there's just parts of it

1170
01:05:01,942 --> 01:05:09,042
that are just completely opaque to you and that's just how it is i mean and and look the the unknowable

1171
01:05:09,042 --> 01:05:17,082
unknowable well of look if if you know what is ai going to do what is quantum going to do i don't

1172
01:05:17,082 --> 01:05:21,682
know and i can't tell you is quantum going to come up with you know fake gold or the ability to send

1173
01:05:21,682 --> 01:05:26,642
a rocket energy free to a asteroid and bring it back and create, you know, more gold than

1174
01:05:26,642 --> 01:05:27,142
we've ever had.

1175
01:05:27,362 --> 01:05:27,642
Maybe.

1176
01:05:28,242 --> 01:05:31,202
Is it going to, you know, break Bitcoin code?

1177
01:05:31,482 --> 01:05:31,722
Maybe.

1178
01:05:31,862 --> 01:05:32,362
I don't know.

1179
01:05:32,582 --> 01:05:33,542
I can't.

1180
01:05:33,662 --> 01:05:34,702
So for me.

1181
01:05:34,702 --> 01:05:42,382
So the problem I have with this is his example for quantum's risk or AI's risk to gold is

1182
01:05:42,382 --> 01:05:43,802
sort of ridiculous, right?

1183
01:05:43,862 --> 01:05:48,822
Like, is it going to create unlimited energy and send a rocket up into space and mine more

1184
01:05:48,822 --> 01:05:49,202
gold?

1185
01:05:49,202 --> 01:05:52,662
because that's his risk scenario for quantum or AI for gold, right?

1186
01:05:52,922 --> 01:05:55,962
But then for Bitcoin, his risk scenario is, is it going to break the code?

1187
01:05:56,382 --> 01:05:59,422
Which is like a lot more practical, straightforward risk scenario, right?

1188
01:05:59,802 --> 01:06:02,302
But the reality is, and I don't know why Luke does this,

1189
01:06:02,342 --> 01:06:07,042
the reality is the risk scenario for gold is the institutions and the infrastructure,

1190
01:06:07,042 --> 01:06:10,882
which are going to get obliterated if quantum computing were just to come along

1191
01:06:10,882 --> 01:06:12,602
way before Bitcoin does.

1192
01:06:12,922 --> 01:06:14,462
And Bitcoin already has solutions in place.

1193
01:06:14,462 --> 01:06:22,162
And these places would have to update old infrastructure and banks and financial institutions are the slowest.

1194
01:06:22,622 --> 01:06:25,242
So I know because I worked at them.

1195
01:06:25,502 --> 01:06:32,522
I did IT in banks and I know it's so and and our bank was probably relatively more nimbile than other ones.

1196
01:06:32,943 --> 01:06:44,182
So this sort of is like a fantastical risk scenario for gold and then a much more practical risk scenario for gold feels like an emotional derivative and not like a practical analysis.

1197
01:06:44,182 --> 01:06:50,242
derivative of risk. You know, break Bitcoin code. Maybe. I don't know. I can't. So for me,

1198
01:06:50,782 --> 01:06:57,182
I don't think so. But I don't think so does not equate to a 50 percent liquid net worth position,

1199
01:06:57,282 --> 01:07:01,802
45 percent liquid net worth position at age 51. It just doesn't. That's irresponsible

1200
01:07:01,802 --> 01:07:10,702
to my wife, to my family, to my clients, to sort of, you know. And so to me.

1201
01:07:11,622 --> 01:07:16,782
But for the average person, I don't think they should be trying to trade it, but I think they should also be responsible about position sizing.

1202
01:07:17,342 --> 01:07:18,722
So a couple of things are interesting here.

1203
01:07:18,862 --> 01:07:28,042
He mentions that he does have a responsibility to his clients and that as somebody who's in his early 50s, that gold is just more responsible than owning Bitcoin, apparently.

1204
01:07:28,482 --> 01:07:31,042
And that would be, of course, due to the volatility that the traders love.

1205
01:07:31,462 --> 01:07:34,342
But the question would be, is what is your end goal, right?

1206
01:07:34,342 --> 01:07:41,202
Is your end goal to just sort of stabilize your existing wealth with, you know, some decent returns from time to time?

1207
01:07:41,282 --> 01:07:42,842
Not always, but from time to time.

1208
01:07:43,162 --> 01:07:44,142
Is that your end goal?

1209
01:07:44,222 --> 01:07:54,962
Or is your end goal to have exponential wealth growth that is outpacing debasement that you could potentially pass on to others, like children or family members, that would then also benefit them?

1210
01:07:55,042 --> 01:07:59,342
Are you building for today or are you building for the future is sort of the difference there.

1211
01:07:59,382 --> 01:08:03,402
And as a macroanalyst, again, I'm kind of surprised that Luke doesn't look at it from that point of view.

1212
01:08:03,402 --> 01:08:06,382
for the average person, I don't think they should be trying to trade it, but I think they should also

1213
01:08:06,382 --> 01:08:14,302
be responsible about position sizing, right? Which is, you know, I think it's easier to have a bigger

1214
01:08:14,302 --> 01:08:21,402
position in gold, given the lower volatility, given the historical track record. And critically,

1215
01:08:22,522 --> 01:08:28,862
when you look, you know, when I really bought huge into, I've owned Bitcoin since 2013.

1216
01:08:28,862 --> 01:08:33,262
when I bought huge into it in 2021,

1217
01:08:34,242 --> 01:08:37,102
January 2020, December 20, January 2021,

1218
01:08:37,602 --> 01:08:40,302
if you look at it against gold since then,

1219
01:08:41,082 --> 01:08:45,262
it's outperformed gold by 8% with a whole lot of drama.

1220
01:08:46,062 --> 01:08:47,142
And you kind of go,

1221
01:08:48,082 --> 01:08:50,062
now, maybe that means it's about to take up,

1222
01:08:50,062 --> 01:08:52,463
but that's almost six years

1223
01:08:52,463 --> 01:08:54,862
of basically performing in line with gold

1224
01:08:54,862 --> 01:08:58,443
with a lot less volatility and drama

1225
01:08:58,443 --> 01:09:01,682
which at my age again, the next six years,

1226
01:09:01,682 --> 01:09:04,122
I'm gonna be 57 years old.

1227
01:09:04,122 --> 01:09:08,223
I like drama a lot less at 51 than I did at 45.

1228
01:09:08,223 --> 01:09:09,862
I think I'm gonna like it even less at 57

1229
01:09:09,864 --> 01:09:17,904
they do at 51. And so to me, everything we talked about on the bond side tells us the dollar

1230
01:09:17,904 --> 01:09:21,604
debasement trade is back on. Everything we're seeing is the dollar debasement trade is back

1231
01:09:21,604 --> 01:09:25,504
on. I don't think it ever left. I think it was all narrative bullcrap that they tried to get

1232
01:09:25,504 --> 01:09:31,044
people to think it was off, but I think it's back on. And in that world, I think Bitcoin is your

1233
01:09:31,044 --> 01:09:34,884
hardest asset. I think gold is second hardest. I think silver, you want to own some silver too,

1234
01:09:34,924 --> 01:09:37,604
because silver's got the industrial kicker that we were just talking about of,

1235
01:09:37,604 --> 01:09:44,144
you know, it is the it is it has the industrial kicker in terms of that demand and that

1236
01:09:44,144 --> 01:09:49,344
unobtainium dynamic. Right. It's a way to play a lot of different things, including sulfuric acid

1237
01:09:49,344 --> 01:09:54,384
problem, supply problems. I'm of two minds about this clip. I get what Luke is saying about, you

1238
01:09:54,384 --> 01:09:58,064
know, when you're buying for safety, he wants to put his money into something that he understands.

1239
01:09:58,064 --> 01:10:02,364
And what he's essentially saying is I get gold and I don't quite get Bitcoin. And that's how I am

1240
01:10:02,364 --> 01:10:06,304
in a way. Right. That's why I stack Bitcoin and I don't buy gold. I just don't get gold.

1241
01:10:07,004 --> 01:10:08,524
I mean, I understand it, but I don't get it.

1242
01:10:08,584 --> 01:10:10,084
And I don't really play in the stock market.

1243
01:10:10,284 --> 01:10:11,484
I don't, you know, do options

1244
01:10:11,484 --> 01:10:13,184
because that just seems like something

1245
01:10:13,184 --> 01:10:14,484
that I would need to understand better

1246
01:10:14,484 --> 01:10:15,424
before I got into it.

1247
01:10:15,984 --> 01:10:18,764
At the same time, Luke's a full-time macro analyst.

1248
01:10:18,904 --> 01:10:21,044
Like that's what he gets paid well to do full-time,

1249
01:10:21,284 --> 01:10:23,184
who advises his clients on trades,

1250
01:10:23,204 --> 01:10:24,944
which he just said he is responsible for.

1251
01:10:25,464 --> 01:10:27,544
And the information on Bitcoin is out there.

1252
01:10:28,024 --> 01:10:29,224
He could pick up a phone even

1253
01:10:29,224 --> 01:10:30,784
and call Lynn Alden if he wanted to

1254
01:10:30,784 --> 01:10:32,024
and ask her a question directly.

1255
01:10:32,384 --> 01:10:34,024
He could listen to podcasts like Twib.

1256
01:10:34,144 --> 01:10:35,324
He could watch YouTube videos.

1257
01:10:35,324 --> 01:10:40,644
so this clip's a bit of a mixed bag and you know as for his reasons of buying gold and silver

1258
01:10:40,644 --> 01:10:45,324
maybe it makes sense for somebody looking for gold or silver returns just the reasons are the

1259
01:10:45,324 --> 01:10:53,404
same reasons i've heard my entire life and you know like if if if you needed bitcoin to be used

1260
01:10:53,404 --> 01:10:57,644
in industrial applications to be valuable then why isn't the dollar used in industrial applications

1261
01:10:57,644 --> 01:11:03,804
people value the dollar but it's not used in industrial applications the best monetary assets

1262
01:11:03,804 --> 01:11:08,604
aren't. I'm not saying the dollar is, but it's just an example. So, I mean, maybe it makes sense

1263
01:11:08,604 --> 01:11:14,544
if you're looking for safe returns. But when he uses the framing of drama, again, that feels like

1264
01:11:14,544 --> 01:11:20,944
emotional framing to me because price discovery for a new asset that is overall going up is totally

1265
01:11:20,944 --> 01:11:27,444
normal. It's a matter of framing, not drama. Would it be fair to say, OK, all right, it would be it

1266
01:11:27,444 --> 01:11:33,144
would be fair. I think it's in fact, I think by a fair amount, it's fair to say gold has preserved

1267
01:11:33,144 --> 01:11:39,564
purchasing power since 2008. You could say that today in 2026. If you bought gold in 2008 and you

1268
01:11:39,564 --> 01:11:44,124
held it today, it's preserved your purchasing power roughly, if you go by, you know, official

1269
01:11:44,124 --> 01:11:50,124
metrics by about 6x. So it's probably even beaten the actual inflation numbers, right? But maybe not

1270
01:11:50,124 --> 01:11:57,344
by 6x, but it's beat inflation official CPI numbers, I think by about 6x since 2008. Okay.

1271
01:11:57,344 --> 01:12:05,704
But that is only true if you held through a lost decade, which gold bugs call it themselves, a lost decade to get there.

1272
01:12:06,084 --> 01:12:07,104
Is that drama?

1273
01:12:07,664 --> 01:12:09,364
It just really is a matter of framing.

1274
01:12:09,604 --> 01:12:17,044
And Luke is emotionally framing it as drama when it's asset price discovery, when gold has had its own tranches of horrible price activity.

1275
01:12:17,824 --> 01:12:31,342
It just weird how it just isn logically consistent from a guy like Luke I just trying to make sense of it in my brain I just want to do a quick sweep of project updates I have more information in the show notes

1276
01:12:31,342 --> 01:12:32,362
for you to read up on.

1277
01:12:32,842 --> 01:12:34,462
Bitcoin Core released a candidate

1278
01:12:34,462 --> 01:12:35,582
with two security patches

1279
01:12:35,582 --> 01:12:36,962
that are probably worth your attention.

1280
01:12:37,922 --> 01:12:40,102
Liquid users are still unable to peg out

1281
01:12:40,102 --> 01:12:43,182
nearly four weeks after the $320 million hack.

1282
01:12:43,502 --> 01:12:44,802
Blockstream says they are continuing

1283
01:12:44,802 --> 01:12:47,262
to have third parties audit the new code

1284
01:12:47,262 --> 01:12:49,302
for their nodes and the Liquid infrastructure,

1285
01:12:49,302 --> 01:12:52,622
but no update on recovering the $320 million funds,

1286
01:12:52,722 --> 01:12:54,282
which would be required for a one-to-one peg.

1287
01:12:54,802 --> 01:12:56,542
And Block, speaking of Block earlier,

1288
01:12:57,402 --> 01:13:01,582
they have been building Lightning 420 support

1289
01:13:01,582 --> 01:13:02,842
for AI agent payments.

1290
01:13:02,982 --> 01:13:04,422
So now it's not just for the S-Coins.

1291
01:13:04,922 --> 01:13:07,702
Lightning can get in on the agent AI protocol payment system.

1292
01:13:07,702 --> 01:13:11,702
And Sparrow Wallet 2.55 was released on September 17th

1293
01:13:12,342 --> 01:13:13,502
after security reviews.

1294
01:13:13,822 --> 01:13:14,962
It's a maintenance release

1295
01:13:14,962 --> 01:13:17,622
with stricter PSPT signature verification

1296
01:13:17,622 --> 01:13:19,542
before, excuse me,

1297
01:13:19,602 --> 01:13:21,502
fields are copied into open transactions

1298
01:13:21,502 --> 01:13:23,642
and silent payment output scripts

1299
01:13:23,642 --> 01:13:25,222
are checked before device signing now.

1300
01:13:25,342 --> 01:13:27,582
And there is a narrower hardware wallet flow

1301
01:13:27,582 --> 01:13:29,422
for BitBox02, Trezor, Ledger,

1302
01:13:29,942 --> 01:13:31,182
Crux, Jade, and Coldcard.

1303
01:13:31,762 --> 01:13:34,342
Not critical, but worth your attention,

1304
01:13:34,462 --> 01:13:34,982
I would say.

1305
01:13:35,442 --> 01:13:36,902
And Bitcoin Pay Server,

1306
01:13:37,002 --> 01:13:38,582
BTC Pay Server 2.44

1307
01:13:38,582 --> 01:13:40,582
came out on September 8th,

1308
01:13:40,582 --> 01:13:42,042
which is a security hardening release

1309
01:13:42,042 --> 01:13:44,562
and blocks a newly observed L&D takeover route

1310
01:13:44,562 --> 01:13:45,902
for older configs

1311
01:13:45,902 --> 01:13:49,222
and an older config could also expose L&D methods

1312
01:13:49,222 --> 01:13:50,262
in a restart window.

1313
01:13:50,842 --> 01:13:52,302
And there's also some situations

1314
01:13:52,302 --> 01:13:54,002
where you may need to replace passwords and whatnot.

1315
01:13:54,222 --> 01:13:56,962
So it's a good, solid BTC pay server update.

1316
01:13:57,282 --> 01:13:58,362
I recommend you get it.

1317
01:13:58,942 --> 01:13:59,982
There you go, quick fire.

1318
01:14:00,062 --> 01:14:01,342
I just wanted to get you through those

1319
01:14:01,342 --> 01:14:03,202
with more links in the show notes.

1320
01:14:03,702 --> 01:14:05,262
As for the final clip this week,

1321
01:14:05,282 --> 01:14:06,622
because we do have to get out of here,

1322
01:14:07,222 --> 01:14:08,802
I want to get an update from Safe,

1323
01:14:08,982 --> 01:14:10,522
the author of the Bitcoin standard.

1324
01:14:10,522 --> 01:14:12,782
And Safe talks about what he thinks

1325
01:14:12,782 --> 01:14:15,402
is the most bullish thing in Bitcoin right now

1326
01:14:15,402 --> 01:14:19,302
that we're maybe a little distracted from because of everything that's going on.

1327
01:14:19,382 --> 01:14:21,982
I mentioned earlier that it seems like the volatility,

1328
01:14:22,422 --> 01:14:29,302
the volatility of the four-year cycle is reducing if we are on our way out of it.

1329
01:14:29,302 --> 01:14:35,322
And that is perhaps noticeable because it's something we have been bouncing around in the boost.

1330
01:14:35,402 --> 01:14:37,302
It's like, what's going on with the four-year cycle?

1331
01:14:37,562 --> 01:14:42,042
And so SAFE has been observing the changing nature of it and had this commentary.

1332
01:14:42,042 --> 01:14:47,802
With each cycle, I think more and more people begin to see that this is happening.

1333
01:14:47,922 --> 01:14:49,522
And so we're witnessing less volatility.

1334
01:14:50,162 --> 01:14:53,762
I think this is really the most bullish thing happening in Bitcoin right now.

1335
01:14:54,122 --> 01:14:59,202
If you look at these cycles, the first bear market that followed the first having was

1336
01:14:59,202 --> 01:15:01,502
something I think in the range of 87%.

1337
01:15:01,502 --> 01:15:03,702
The second one was about 84%.

1338
01:15:03,702 --> 01:15:05,842
The third one was 77%.

1339
01:15:05,842 --> 01:15:08,902
This one so far has only been 54%.

1340
01:15:08,902 --> 01:15:13,482
Now, it may drop further, but probably not.

1341
01:15:13,902 --> 01:15:17,602
And even if it does, I don't think it'll draw more than 77%.

1342
01:15:17,602 --> 01:15:26,702
So as long as it drops less than 77%, then I think we are essentially proving Bitcoin's value proposition

1343
01:15:26,702 --> 01:15:32,142
and proving that its volatility is declining as the volume increases, as the market becomes more mature,

1344
01:15:32,242 --> 01:15:36,182
as more institutional money comes in, and as more people understand the cycles.

1345
01:15:36,182 --> 01:15:50,240
I think a lot of the old timers learned the lesson in 2021 You know they thought all right Bitcoin going to the moon Bitcoin going to the moon Finally 2017 also a lot of people did the same thing And then sitting through a 70 80 drawdown

1346
01:15:50,240 --> 01:15:51,680
is a big punch in the gut.

1347
01:15:51,800 --> 01:15:53,700
It hurts no matter how much

1348
01:15:53,700 --> 01:15:55,160
you want to post on Twitter

1349
01:15:55,160 --> 01:15:56,960
about not carrying an oblong

1350
01:15:56,960 --> 01:15:57,680
for the long term.

1351
01:15:58,120 --> 01:16:00,140
70, 80% drawdown is bad.

1352
01:16:00,560 --> 01:16:01,040
It hurts.

1353
01:16:01,300 --> 01:16:02,520
And I think a lot of people

1354
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:04,060
expected that this year.

1355
01:16:04,060 --> 01:16:04,980
And that's why we didn't see

1356
01:16:04,980 --> 01:16:07,360
such a big rise in the price

1357
01:16:07,360 --> 01:16:10,900
because a lot of the people who would have been in 2017 and 2011,

1358
01:16:11,740 --> 01:16:14,660
very bull-tarded and buying with leverage at the top,

1359
01:16:15,320 --> 01:16:19,660
where instead maybe not buying or maybe liquidated some of the early holdings,

1360
01:16:20,060 --> 01:16:23,520
maybe buying houses and chairs and other things that they may need.

1361
01:16:24,040 --> 01:16:27,140
And the result is that we didn't see a big spike up.

1362
01:16:27,140 --> 01:16:30,800
So the chart doesn't look so attractive for posting memes

1363
01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:32,380
and dunking on no-coiners and shit-coiners

1364
01:16:32,380 --> 01:16:37,540
because we didn't get that giant green candle toward the end.

1365
01:16:37,1000 --> 01:16:41,140
But it meant that the drawdown is smaller.

1366
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:44,480
I think this is far more important than Twitter bragging rights

1367
01:16:44,480 --> 01:16:48,640
because this means that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset.

1368
01:16:48,640 --> 01:16:54,800
So now you have to go back four years to find a drawdown in Bitcoin that was more than 54%.

1369
01:16:54,800 --> 01:17:00,820
And that's pretty significant because that really moves it from uninvestable for most people

1370
01:17:00,820 --> 01:17:05,800
to an investable asset, something that most money managers can look into.

1371
01:17:06,180 --> 01:17:09,880
Most money managers will put money in stocks like NVIDIA,

1372
01:17:10,360 --> 01:17:15,1000
which can have a 50% drawdown and have had high volatility in their growth phase.

1373
01:17:16,480 --> 01:17:19,420
So now Bitcoin is becoming more and more acceptable, more and more profitable.

1374
01:17:19,600 --> 01:17:21,760
The longer it lives, of course, that also helps.

1375
01:17:22,140 --> 01:17:24,600
But also I think the decline in the volatility is a huge deal.

1376
01:17:24,600 --> 01:17:28,1000
So we're essentially arbitraging the cycles away,

1377
01:17:29,100 --> 01:17:30,640
but it's going to take a while before people,

1378
01:17:30,640 --> 01:17:35,880
realize it because ultimately about 98% of people don't even hold any Bitcoin. And among Bitcoiners,

1379
01:17:35,920 --> 01:17:40,400
the vast majority of Bitcoiners don't even believe that it is having this driving cycle.

1380
01:17:40,740 --> 01:17:45,480
So it's going to take a while before people get it. But I think the more people get it,

1381
01:17:45,580 --> 01:17:53,740
the less of a cyclical nature it will have, the smaller the drawdowns will be, and the less

1382
01:17:53,740 --> 01:17:57,260
volatility we have on the way up. And that's just going to make Bitcoin more and more mature as an

1383
01:17:57,260 --> 01:17:59,360
asset, will attract more and more serious capital.

1384
01:18:00,640 --> 01:18:12,740
All right, checking in on the state of the network.

1385
01:18:12,860 --> 01:18:17,240
I'm wrapping up at block height 969,340.

1386
01:18:17,240 --> 01:18:22,980
Our Bitcoin price to USD is 83,790.

1387
01:18:23,440 --> 01:18:26,240
Stats per dollar right now, 1,193.

1388
01:18:26,380 --> 01:18:30,560
Down 33.6% from our all-time high 359 days ago.

1389
01:18:30,640 --> 01:18:37,820
you savages. But this is interesting. The estimated difficulty change is now tipped up.

1390
01:18:37,960 --> 01:18:46,140
It's a small one, but it's 0.2% and it's just 356 blocks away. So that should land around October

1391
01:18:46,140 --> 01:19:08,397
2nd and the network will adjust slightly upwards There are 25 reachable nodes on the Bitcoin network That up a little bit And the sats or I sorry the fees are up a bit it uh 3 sats per vbyte right now for immediate and 2 sats per vbyte for a half hour now those

1392
01:19:08,397 --> 01:19:13,857
might sound cute if you're a long timer but those have been sitting around one for quite a while

1393
01:19:13,857 --> 01:19:18,657
so it's notable you might have to go look up what's going on something must happen during the show

1394
01:19:18,657 --> 01:19:26,097
That's one of the, you know, honestly, one of the signals I follow when something's going on is when I start seeing that tick up.

1395
01:19:26,397 --> 01:19:27,237
Can be one of them, at least.

1396
01:19:27,837 --> 01:19:30,077
But that's exactly how the network should behave.

1397
01:19:30,297 --> 01:19:34,297
In other words, the network is doing just fine and it's strong.

1398
01:19:34,297 --> 01:19:51,597
well links to what i talked about are at this week in bitcoin.show my goal is to give you a show

1399
01:19:51,597 --> 01:19:55,517
that doesn't get distracted by the emotions around what's going on but focuses on the signal so you

1400
01:19:55,517 --> 01:20:00,037
can plan for yourself your friends your family your future so let me know how i did with a boost

1401
01:20:00,037 --> 01:20:01,777
at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com.

1402
01:20:01,857 --> 01:20:02,677
I want to know your thoughts

1403
01:20:02,677 --> 01:20:05,877
on them redoing the PCI math as well.

1404
01:20:06,337 --> 01:20:07,077
Anything we talked about,

1405
01:20:07,137 --> 01:20:07,637
there's a lot,

1406
01:20:07,757 --> 01:20:09,677
including there's some really great questions

1407
01:20:09,677 --> 01:20:10,557
during the Boost segments,

1408
01:20:10,557 --> 01:20:11,477
if you missed that,

1409
01:20:12,057 --> 01:20:13,137
that I'd like your feedback on.

1410
01:20:13,557 --> 01:20:14,117
Speaking of that,

1411
01:20:14,157 --> 01:20:15,537
I want to take a moment and say

1412
01:20:15,537 --> 01:20:17,577
this episode was a very rewarding episode

1413
01:20:17,577 --> 01:20:18,497
for me personally.

1414
01:20:18,897 --> 01:20:20,177
I've been doing podcasting

1415
01:20:20,177 --> 01:20:20,997
for nearly 20 years,

1416
01:20:21,057 --> 01:20:22,197
and this is going to be up there

1417
01:20:22,197 --> 01:20:24,137
in one of probably the top five,

1418
01:20:24,597 --> 01:20:26,457
not only because of the tremendous value,

1419
01:20:26,457 --> 01:20:27,917
which helps very much at this time,

1420
01:20:28,277 --> 01:20:29,237
but also just because

1421
01:20:29,237 --> 01:20:33,377
some of the messages and notes really were touching and really landed for me.

1422
01:20:33,617 --> 01:20:37,017
So I just want to take a moment and thank everybody who supported the show this week.

1423
01:20:37,257 --> 01:20:39,557
And I hope we can keep on doing this together.

1424
01:20:39,917 --> 01:20:41,637
So very, very much appreciated.

1425
01:20:41,837 --> 01:20:44,617
And I just want to take a moment and acknowledge that again.

1426
01:20:45,337 --> 01:20:47,697
It's, you know, I know it's not going to be every time.

1427
01:20:47,937 --> 01:20:51,817
So when it does happen, you got to just sort of sit and enjoy the moment.

1428
01:20:51,817 --> 01:20:53,297
And I'm doing that right now.

1429
01:20:53,497 --> 01:20:56,297
But that's it for me for episode 125.

1430
01:20:56,297 --> 01:21:03,177
Again, you can support the show with a boost at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com or jupiter.party for a membership.

1431
01:21:03,577 --> 01:21:06,397
Thanks so much for joining me, and I'll see you back here next week.

1432
01:21:26,297 --> 01:21:56,277
Thank you.

1433
01:21:56,297 --> 01:22:15,617
Thank you.