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And something is wrong. Let's not forget, when the Federal Reserve was created,

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we were promised no more boom and bust cycles, right? We had four panics in

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the 1800s that were devastating.

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We had the panic in the early 1900s. They said, that's it.

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We're going to create this central bank, and we're going to 1913,

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and we're going to never have panics again.

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We're never going to have crazy business cycles. That's all we've had since then.

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That's true. Maybe it's a time to make some adjustments.

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Music.

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We'll be right back. Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 22.

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My name is Chris. It's a special report.

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There is a lot going on today. Really, four major events came together to create

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just a hell of a day in the market, and Bitcoin's taken a beating.

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I want to explain what's going on, why it's impacting Bitcoin,

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how it's impacting Bitcoin, and maybe roughly guess for how long.

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Then I think we'll take just a couple of moments to respond to some of the no-coiners.

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That are just coming out of the woodwork to really just dunk on Bitcoin as the

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market is in pure reaction mode. Talk about opportunist.

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Because anyone watching Bitcoin over this weekend, it's Mondays I record,

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Monday the 5th of August, 2024.

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Anyone that was watching Bitcoin saw the writing on the wall.

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I mean, I was telling the family, like, brace yourselves. Monday morning is

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going to be a bloodbath in the market. it.

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We're following the breaking news out of Wall Street. The Dow,

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look at this, down 950. Right now, 958.

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As a global market sell-off intensifies, Friday's disappointing July jobs report

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showed that the unemployment rate was at a three-year high, 4.3%.

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That produced whispers of a potential recession, growing concerns about the

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strength of the U.S. economy.

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The Japanese markets dropped more than 4,400 points. That's their sharpest since

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the Black Monday crash of 87.

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Adding to the downturn are investor concerns that the Federal Reserve waited

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too long to begin cutting interest rates.

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So there's really...

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Four horsemen of the market apocalypse that she just touched on.

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I mean, she just banged through them.

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Weak jobs report suggesting economic slowdown and that jobs may be about to fall off a cliff.

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Number two would be speculation that the Fed waited too long,

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sort of a knock-on effect of the weak jobs.

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Number three, Middle East conflicts are accelerating in a very dangerous way.

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Number four, the yen carry trade collapse has really just begun.

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And I'll add a fifth in here.

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A fifth horseman, I guess. The market's just been going up for a long time,

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guys. Like it was sort of hot and ready for a correction.

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And this yen carry trade collapsing is maybe the perfect opportunity for this correction.

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And I think it means things are going to be dicey for a while while the market prices all of this in.

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But let's talk a little bit about this because it has been all of this coming

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together created kind of a historical market day. History in the making.

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What some would call history in the making.

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Don't say that. We have never been down 1,000 points ever, not even intraday

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on the NASDAQ. Is that true? That is true. Okay.

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I'm down 6% right from the get-go. This is heavy, heavy. Big tech.

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Here we go. Look at them go down.

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Microsoft is down 20 bucks. That's 5%.

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Alphabet, 5%. Meta, 6%. Amazon, 6%. Apple, 9% down.

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Let's pull out Apple. This is interesting. Interesting.

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Oh, Jan, yeah, if you've been in Bitcoin for a while, 6% declines,

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that's just a Monday. That's no big deal at all.

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But this yen carry trade is really something that I started talking about a

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few weeks ago or a few episodes ago on the show.

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And it was a sweet deal for risky traders. This clip will kind of explain the

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dynamics that were at play. At least.

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The Japanese stock market benefited tremendously from the persistent weakness

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in the yen. Remember, they've essentially had stagflation since the mid-90s over in Japan.

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Finally, the central organizers were able to kind of stoke inflation.

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Yes, they were trying to actually stoke inflation.

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The problem is, is once it gets rolling, they have to start raising rates.

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Now, there are other positives that the Japanese economy has been going through,

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particularly corporate Japan in terms of corporate governance,

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returns on equity, unwinding share cross holdings and so on.

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So there was a fundamental story to Japan.

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But I think what this is reflecting in is how much money people borrowed in

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yen to buy Japanese stocks, among many other assets that are now unwinding.

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And this goes back to their rate hike last Wednesday, the same day the Fed was

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holding rates steady here. The Bank of Japan decided to hike rates.

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It wasn't exactly their first rate hike, but it was one of just a couple since, what, March or so?

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Why did that so quickly kind of push things to the other side of the card?

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Well, it's sort of revealing itself. The Fed That started raising rates in March 2022.

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It took the BOJ two years later just to get them out of negative interest rates.

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BOJ being the Bank of Japan.

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You think they should have gone sooner? They should have gone sooner when inflation

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was persistently above 2%.

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Now, one of the things that I don't think he's clearly saying,

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so I want to make sure it's clear to you, is that people were borrowing in yen,

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traders were borrowing in yen, because the interest rates were low.

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He says it in here. It was one of the last sources of cheap or free money.

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So they'd get a loan, I should say, in yen.

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Then they would move that around either in the Japanese stock market or in the

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U.S. stock market. And they'd buy tech, maybe with leverage.

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So maybe they'd come with $1,000 of yen collateral into the stock market.

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And then they'd buy on margin. margin so they put maybe

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they'd buy two thousand dollars worth of nvidia with one thousand dollars of

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yen collateral now if nvidia goes down like it has they get margin called but

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the problem is if the interest rate in japan goes up then they get less for

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their yen now their yen that they was worth a thousand dollars is only worth eight hundred dollars.

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And so they're getting margin called on their $2,000 margin loan for their NVIDIA

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stock. And their collateral is only worth $800.

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So it's, and then of course, the banks in Japan say, hey, wait a minute here.

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You need to actually pay up on your loan to us. And they margin call the loan in yen.

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It's a house of cards because essentially the traders were looking for a source of cheap liquidity.

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And since the US rate was going up, the interest rate was going up,

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the cost to borrow in the United States went up.

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And so they looked somewhere else and they found Japan.

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And Japan was keeping the rates low. And so all these traders took out loans

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in cheap Japan money, the yen.

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And they started buying up Nvidia and maybe Bitcoin ETFs and Apple stock and

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super micro Microstock and all these tech stocks that were pumping.

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They were buying them on margin too. So he's not quite explaining that dynamic,

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but that's why it matters so much that the Bank of Japan just started raising

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rates right as the Fed at the last FOMC meeting decided not to raise rates.

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It took the BOJ two years later just to get them out of negative interest rates.

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Do you think they should have gone sooner?

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They should have gone sooner when inflation was persistently above 2%.

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But by waiting, every month that went by, more borrowing was taking place in yen.

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It was the last place in the world to sort of get free money.

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And that free money, we couldn't necessarily quantify, but we're seeing sort

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of the result of the unwind now to say, wow, that was massive.

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We didn't really see it while it was going on to the extent that it's revealed

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itself to be, but it was obviously massive.

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History teaches us, too. It's funny how it's always something we can't quite

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see. Something a little different, something a little more opaque.

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Oh, we didn't quite see that.

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And, well, there you go. So that's the yen carry trade that you're hearing everybody

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talk about that's collapsing at this moment because it's not such a good source of cheap money anymore.

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Now, in a month or so, probably two, three, whatever, by October,

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those situations are going to probably start changing here in the States.

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I would imagine something like this doesn't unwind over one week or over one market day.

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This is something that unwinds over years, this yen carry trade, years.

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So I don't think this is going to be ultimately what permanently drags down the U.S. market.

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Most of the knockout effects will happen immediately here in the U.S.,

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but the longer tail is going to be in Japan.

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And I don't think it will have as direct impact on the U.S.

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Market after some time passes. But whenever this happens, whenever everything

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dumps, everything collapses, it always brings up the conversation of,

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well, what about Bitcoin?

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Why is all of this impacting Bitcoin? Why are these four horsemen that are attacking

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the macro economy impacting Bitcoin?

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Isn't it supposed to be its own thing? It's on its own network.

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It's not managed. You know, it's not pumped by the Fed.

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So why is Bitcoin dumping? Why isn't it a store of value? Bitcoin, what is Bitcoin?

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This is Joe on CNBC. Tom Lee's there. And of course, Aaron Sorkin is also at the desk.

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This is Tom Lee. He's a good investor. I think he's a good analyst.

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And he has to acknowledge the

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fact that most of the market right now does trade Bitcoin as a risk asset.

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Or another way you could put that as a tech stock.

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Most of the day traders that are trading Bitcoin, they're not using it for any

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kind of long-term hedge.

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They don't understand the monetary properties of it. They just see it as kind

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of like a tech stock, like an Apple or an Nvidia stock.

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And, you know, there's potentially been lots of liquidations.

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I think several hundred thousand accounts liquidated over the weekend.

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To get money, to get money. Yeah, margin calls.

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So what does that say to you, though, longer term about Bitcoin?

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Does it say anything to you?

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I think it's showing you that as it becomes more widely held and held in traditional

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brokerage accounts, it is going to be increasingly a risk on assets.

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We shouldn't think of it as gold then, a digital gold. We shouldn't think of

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it as a store of value per se.

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Aaron Sorkin going right for this favorite old horse of his that he loves to beat.

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This is a top issue for Aaron. He always, whenever Bitcoin's down,

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he loves to point out on TV that Bitcoin's down and it's not a store of value.

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Clearly, this must demonstrate it's not a store of value. Obviously,

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it's not a store of value.

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Because it's down today. We shouldn't think of it as gold, then,

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a digital gold. We shouldn't think of it as a store of value per se.

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We should think of it as something else, a speculative tool that's in this sort of NASDAQ-y camp.

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It's kind of both. I mean, it's kind of, it's very unique. How can it be both?

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When people say both, I don't get that both part. I sort of agree.

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Until it, I mean, it obviously has, some people think it has value,

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But when you need it and you need to turn some of that value into cash for margin

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calls, you're going to you're going to sell it if it's up.

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Yeah. So when would then it be a store of value? That's obviously it's a store

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of value when it's in the speculative and it goes up camp.

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It's not a store of value. Well, it's still storing fifty two thousand dollars

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worth of value versus eight thousand dollars worth of value.

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I agree. I'm just saying most people.

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What's incredible about Sorkin is what Sorkin doesn't understand.

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And I just, it blows me away, is then in the next segment,

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he'll talk about the NASDAQ 200-day moving average price and he'll completely

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ignore the today price, which is down, and he'll talk about the 200-day moving

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average price of another, like the NASDAQ, like in just the next segment.

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How he doesn't apply the same thinking to both is bonkers. When he says in here,

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well, it's not a long-term store of value because it's down right now,

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that really kind of betrays the way he's thinking about it. We'll play through

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some of this again and we'll break it down.

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I think it's showing you that But as it becomes more widely held and held in

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traditional brokerage accounts, it is going to be increasingly a risk on assets.

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We shouldn't think of it as gold then, a digital gold. We shouldn't think of

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it as a store of value per se.

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We should think of it as something else, a speculative tool that's in this sort of NASDAQ-y camp.

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It's kind of both. I mean, it's kind of, it's very unique. How can it be both?

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When people say both, I don't get that both part. How can he not understand?

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I mean, I could understand an average person not getting it,

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but he sits at the desk for Squawk Box on CNBC and he covers this and he has

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Larry Fink sit down and he has Michael Saylor and he has all these different

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people explain it to him over and over again.

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And the moron still doesn't get it. It's really simple Aaron.

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It's really really simple It goes up on the long term if you hold it for four

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to five years Nobody has ever lost money in the history of Bitcoin in 15 years

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No one has ever lost money if they hold the asset for four or five years It's a store of value.

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You could buy it at $28 hold it for five years and sell it for $35,000 just to you know.

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Or today, you could buy it at $60,000 and hold it, and it'll probably be worth

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$150,000 or whatever it's going to be in five years.

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Over the long term, if you look at the 200-day moving average,

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which, by the way, all these companies like MicroStrategy and all the ETFs that

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are looking at their cost basis for Bitcoin acquisition,

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they all use the 200-day moving average price because they're serious about

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this. They're not looking at the one-minute chart.

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No serious investor is living and dying by the one minute chart.

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And that is basics. That's one-on-one. That's not unique to Bitcoin.

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That's everything. And I can't believe Sorkin doesn't understand that.

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He really can't wrap his head around it because he doesn't want to.

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And what Aaron fails to mention while he's dunking on Bitcoin right then when

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it's on a down day is at that moment, and I believe as I still record,

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six of the major trading platforms forums are down, including Citi,

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Fidelity, E-Trade, Vanguard,

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TD Ameritrade, and Charles Schwab. They all crashed.

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They all went down. So none of the retail could get out.

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Bitcoin was up 24-7, seven days a week.

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You can sell millions of dollars of Bitcoin from your phone in two minutes, 24-7.

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Nothing, nothing is as liquid and as available as Bitcoin.

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It has the market size. it has a trillion dollar market

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cap it has buyers and sellers 24 7 you

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can do it with a range of options and companies and directly on

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your phone and it also means and this

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i don't know why people haven't wrapped their head around this yet it means

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bitcoin is always going to be the first to price in major problems if you've

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got a trader who's sitting there friday night saturday morning sunday afternoon

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and they're panicked about world war three or they know that it's going to be

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a bloodbath on Monday and they need some cash.

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They can't sell stock. They can't sell gold. They can't sell their house.

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They can't sell anything. They can't go to the bank. They can't get it out of

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their bank account. But they can sell Bitcoin in two minutes on their phone.

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So it's always going to be the first to price it in at every level,

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from retail all the way up to the professional traders.

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Bitcoin is the canary in the coal mine because it is the only remaining free

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market with actual liquidity and a wide network and distribution.

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And so instead of mocking Bitcoin, people should be watching Bitcoin to try

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to understand where this is going.

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But you can't just do that. You have to debase yourself.

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And we're going to keep the receipts here on the show. I'm going to keep these clips.

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And we're going to play these clips again. This is Kramer dunking on Bitcoin this morning.

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And it's just, you know, he's all crypto is great. Larry Fink's a genius when

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the number go up. And then as soon as the number go down.

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Bitcoin was supposed to be a store of value. Thank you. Yeah.

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Would we be safe in Bitcoin?

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Would have been the thought that perhaps John Book. That is not that is not the case.

248
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Well, it just turns out that gold.

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Yeah, gold. In fact, it's all about gold. You see, gold is the better play,

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according to Jim Cramer.

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He was talking to like an oil driller in Canada.

252
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And he that guy was really bearish on crypto. I'm not kidding you.

253
00:16:38,419 --> 00:16:42,439
This is literally the conversation they had on air. Two other hosts on CNBC who don't get it.

254
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And, you know, so obviously gold's the way to go. Why? Why does Jim Cramer say gold's the way to go?

255
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Because gold is scarce. When things go bad, crypto will go bad with it,

256
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but gold won't because we've only found about 1% more gold each year.

257
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There's just not a lot of gold to be found.

258
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I love that. I love this. I thinking, right? Gold's scarce, so it makes it better

259
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than Bitcoin, which has 21 million coins hard capped. Thank you.

260
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Like, wow. Okay. Okay, Jim. That's some great logic there.

261
00:17:13,533 --> 00:17:20,173
And then maybe Bitcoin dumps harder when there's a market crisis because Bitcoin is liquid.

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And gold, how are you going to get your gold? And what happens if you get a

263
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paper run on gold? How are they going to fulfill that?

264
00:17:28,413 --> 00:17:33,313
People can't take a million dollars or in this case, a trillion dollars has

265
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been removed from the crypto market. Yeah.

266
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You can't you can't take out nearly a trillion dollars in gold without causing

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massive havoc because they can't get you that gold that fast.

268
00:17:42,733 --> 00:17:44,773
Right. What are you going to go to give it to somebody else?

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They're going to give you cash. Like, what's the process here?

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It's the idea that the velocity somehow equates to the quality is silly because

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you could apply the same logic reverse to gold.

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But, you know, because gold's scarce, it's better than Bitcoin.

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And with it, but gold won't because we've only found about one percent more

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gold each year. There's just not a lot of gold to be found.

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And that's not managed by just a handful of big companies that are very intentionally

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trickling gold onto the market to maintain prices at a certain level.

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That's clearly not that. And a lot of it's in high-cost places.

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So gold is maintaining its value. And I think that's great. And I think everyone

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should have 10% of their assets in gold if they can get it.

280
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And try getting that out of Costco. It's, like, really hard.

281
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Yeah, but by the way, it's hard to get the gold. And it's hard to get rid of

282
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your gold, too. So it's hard to get the gold. It's hard to get rid of your gold.

283
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But you should have 10% of your assets in it. So that way you can't even beat inflation.

284
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I mean, I'm not a gold hater, but I'm living in Washington state where like

285
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my cost of living is up over 20% year over year.

286
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This is ridiculous things. It's like the things here, the food alone has got

287
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to be up like 60% for some of the things we buy for our family.

288
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Gas prices have doubled. Gas is still $4 over four, almost, almost $6 a gallon

289
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at some places when you go downtown.

290
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And he's telling me that I should save my life energy in gold,

291
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which is like going up a tiny percent.

292
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It's ridiculous. Just because it doesn't crash today when everything else crashes.

293
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This is the difference between a beta trader and somebody who is building lifetime

294
00:19:12,563 --> 00:19:15,003
wealth. You have to remain rational.

295
00:19:15,303 --> 00:19:18,323
You have to keep focused on the fundamentals.

296
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It's crucial for navigating volatile markets like we see today.

297
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And I have a question for you. So, Booston.

298
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Do you agree with me here? Let me know your thoughts on this kind of like coming

299
00:19:30,983 --> 00:19:32,943
out of the woodwork to bash on Bitcoin.

300
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And also, if you get values from this type of specific episode,

301
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if you like these focused episodes, let me know. Boost in.

302
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Tell me what you think about it. But one more clip that I want to play for you.

303
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This one, this one's really good.

304
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This is the Tezos co-founder. Now, Tezos is a blockchain technology company

305
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with their own ship coin.

306
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And she comes on CNBC and she uses this opportunity today to dunk on Bitcoin.

307
00:19:56,983 --> 00:20:00,383
No, I think I think basically what we're seeing is something similar to what

308
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happened at the beginning of

309
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COVID, where folks get a sense of something that looks like a recession.

310
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And the first thing they decide to sell is their pretend Internet money.

311
00:20:08,043 --> 00:20:11,483
But yeah, the news coming out of Japan obviously correlates with quite a bit of that.

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Pretend internet money. And you can guarantee on CNBC, Aaron Sorkin,

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00:20:15,123 --> 00:20:16,583
he's going to be all over some Bitcoin hate.

314
00:20:16,903 --> 00:20:21,583
So it's nothing different than margin calls. And if you have stocks or Bitcoin

315
00:20:21,583 --> 00:20:28,803
or any assets that are sellable, you can take profits and maybe cover what you

316
00:20:28,803 --> 00:20:29,723
need to cover elsewhere.

317
00:20:29,943 --> 00:20:32,063
Nothing further than that. I mean, gold didn't go down.

318
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No, I think Bitcoin, it's a bit of a shellacking because it's definitely cast

319
00:20:35,923 --> 00:20:39,883
more as a speculative currency. It's not treated the same as a lot of other equities.

320
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You just called a pretend internet money. Yes.

321
00:20:46,143 --> 00:20:51,503
You're saying the quiet part out loud for some people. He was just waiting for that moment.

322
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She runs a competing blockchain. The bias, it's obvious.

323
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She should come out there with locos on her shirt.

324
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And she sits there the whole time with her mouth hanging open,

325
00:21:03,523 --> 00:21:06,763
by the way. That's the quality of guest here.

326
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The fact that people can sell off their Bitcoin fast and get cash in the moment

327
00:21:11,863 --> 00:21:15,803
of some sort of economic uncertainty is a feature, not a bug.

328
00:21:16,563 --> 00:21:21,483
Nobody can say no. Nobody can stop you. No trading platform goes down, Bitcoin remains up.

329
00:21:21,643 --> 00:21:25,183
No circuit breaker breaks. No company tells you no. No Robin Hood cutting you off.

330
00:21:25,623 --> 00:21:27,463
You get access to your money.

331
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And then you can save your money in small fractions as you can afford.

332
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Man, things are tight in my household.

333
00:21:34,663 --> 00:21:39,463
I don't have very much money to buy gold or stocks, especially when I never

334
00:21:39,463 --> 00:21:41,223
know if the stocks are actually going to go up or down.

335
00:21:41,263 --> 00:21:45,443
And if they do go up, maybe I get 8%, 10% return. Whoop-dee-doo.

336
00:21:47,183 --> 00:21:52,303
Again, doesn't even cover the debasement of my fiat. But I can buy Bitcoin one

337
00:21:52,303 --> 00:21:54,043
sat at a time with something like Strike.

338
00:21:55,189 --> 00:21:58,669
You know, when it was on a time like this, when the price is down,

339
00:21:58,709 --> 00:22:00,969
when Bitcoin's on sale, I'll pick up a couple million sats.

340
00:22:01,669 --> 00:22:05,509
I can pick up a couple million sats. And I can store that and I can sit on that

341
00:22:05,509 --> 00:22:08,249
for five years. And it'll be worth substantially more.

342
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And I can do it incrementally as my budget allows for.

343
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And none of these analysts, because they're all rich, they're all privileged,

344
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they don't seem to understand what the situation is for everyday people out

345
00:22:20,709 --> 00:22:25,069
there. Nearly one-third of parents say they cannot afford back-to-school shopping

346
00:22:25,069 --> 00:22:26,769
for their kids this year.

347
00:22:26,969 --> 00:22:32,189
A new study conducted on behalf of Credit Karma shows 50% of parents plan to

348
00:22:32,189 --> 00:22:35,489
sacrifice necessities in order to get enough school supplies.

349
00:22:35,669 --> 00:22:38,509
That includes sacrificing groceries and paying bills.

350
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So parents are going to sacrifice food and paying the bills,

351
00:22:44,789 --> 00:22:46,509
like, you know, the lights.

352
00:22:46,509 --> 00:22:52,429
A national report finds families are now spending an average of $874 just on

353
00:22:52,429 --> 00:22:55,749
school supplies and electronics. United States of America, everybody.

354
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And they're dunking on Bitcoin because the people can get money out when they need it fast.

355
00:23:01,949 --> 00:23:05,329
Do you understand how sick and twisted that is? It's swisted.

356
00:23:05,449 --> 00:23:09,509
It's what it is. The Bitcoin haters are swisted. They're really swisted.

357
00:23:09,989 --> 00:23:15,849
And I think they're going to look silly. I think just maybe not in a week,

358
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maybe not a couple of weeks.

359
00:23:16,909 --> 00:23:20,169
Maybe it's going to take till October. I don't know who does. Nobody could.

360
00:23:20,629 --> 00:23:26,049
But in not so long, they're going to look silly. Things will turn around.

361
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I want to recap the state of Bitcoin. But before we get there,

362
00:23:30,109 --> 00:23:32,269
I have to point out the obvious elephant in the room.

363
00:23:32,369 --> 00:23:35,309
This is not a political show, but there's an election at stake here.

364
00:23:35,409 --> 00:23:40,449
All that, ladies and gentlemen, and everyone else, that is called Bidenomics.

365
00:23:44,969 --> 00:23:48,669
That is called Bidenomics, and we are very proud of Bidenomics.

366
00:23:48,949 --> 00:23:53,009
So, you know, you can't have all this going down right 90 days before an election.

367
00:23:53,109 --> 00:23:57,369
Like, they're going to have to try to do something, and it's going to get political.

368
00:23:58,484 --> 00:24:04,404
And the longer it's painful, the worse it's going to be for the incumbent, well, or for the VP.

369
00:24:04,944 --> 00:24:08,944
But let's recap Bitcoin, because just despite the fact that there's this political

370
00:24:08,944 --> 00:24:14,004
element, and when you review the Fed's decisions, depending on how you measure

371
00:24:14,004 --> 00:24:17,024
it, it looks like they're pretty political sometimes, especially during election years.

372
00:24:17,344 --> 00:24:21,764
In fact, if you look historically at Bitcoin's price, you can see political

373
00:24:21,764 --> 00:24:27,764
interactions every election cycle that, you know, happens on a four-year cadence

374
00:24:27,764 --> 00:24:28,684
just like the halving does.

375
00:24:29,164 --> 00:24:34,324
But this year is different. Spot ETFs launched and Larry Fink is mega bullish.

376
00:24:34,864 --> 00:24:38,884
And these ETF firms are incentivized for the ETF number to go up.

377
00:24:39,264 --> 00:24:41,684
They don't benefit from the ETF number going down.

378
00:24:42,084 --> 00:24:44,064
And these are massively powerful institutions.

379
00:24:44,704 --> 00:24:48,144
Two different presidential candidates in the United States spoke at the Bitcoin

380
00:24:48,144 --> 00:24:51,704
conference saying that they would implement strategic reserves in the US of

381
00:24:51,704 --> 00:24:53,244
A. That idea is out there now.

382
00:24:53,764 --> 00:24:57,624
One of the largest wealth advisors, Morgan Stanley, just approved their financial

383
00:24:57,624 --> 00:25:01,944
advisors to market the Bitcoin ETFs to their high net worth clients.

384
00:25:02,784 --> 00:25:06,004
Others will absolutely follow suit. This is a massive deal.

385
00:25:06,724 --> 00:25:10,504
Cantor Fitzgerald says they own a shipload of Bitcoin.

386
00:25:11,124 --> 00:25:15,104
I don't think you can understand how big it is that Cantor Fitzgerald is out there saying that.

387
00:25:15,144 --> 00:25:20,104
VanEck's CEO is also out there saying he has 30% of his personal funds in Bitcoin. That's VanEck's CEO.

388
00:25:20,644 --> 00:25:22,604
30% of his personal funds are in Bitcoin.

389
00:25:23,344 --> 00:25:27,744
Selmer Scientific announced a Bitcoin treasury and submits an S3 for $200 million

390
00:25:27,744 --> 00:25:28,984
in funding to buy more Bitcoin.

391
00:25:29,564 --> 00:25:34,364
Saylor over at MicroStrategy has submitted for a $2 billion ATM to buy Bitcoin.

392
00:25:34,944 --> 00:25:39,644
Reports have it that Jamie Dimon has changed his tune on Bitcoin after being

393
00:25:39,644 --> 00:25:40,784
a staunch detractor for years.

394
00:25:41,404 --> 00:25:45,884
The Mt. Gox distribution, just about over. El Salvador continues,

395
00:25:46,084 --> 00:25:49,264
even today, to buy one Bitcoin every single day.

396
00:25:49,784 --> 00:25:53,284
Banks are still working to custody Bitcoin for massive clients.

397
00:25:53,924 --> 00:25:58,744
Fiat currencies are continuing to be debased. M2 supply just hit an all-time

398
00:25:58,744 --> 00:26:00,624
high while all this is going down.

399
00:26:00,984 --> 00:26:05,224
And the DCA crowd out there is still stacking every day, reducing the number

400
00:26:05,224 --> 00:26:06,544
of Bitcoin available for purchase.

401
00:26:07,124 --> 00:26:12,124
And in the face of massive recession fears, Bitcoin's price is basically,

402
00:26:12,124 --> 00:26:14,804
as I record right now, back to where it was in July.

403
00:26:15,859 --> 00:26:20,059
Maybe we'll slide back to May. Bitcoin has been more and more resilient in the

404
00:26:20,059 --> 00:26:22,359
face of macro panic than I have ever witnessed it.

405
00:26:22,759 --> 00:26:26,239
And even though it's being used more and more frequently as a source of quick

406
00:26:26,239 --> 00:26:28,139
liquidity, it's still holding up.

407
00:26:28,139 --> 00:26:31,499
I mean, you guys have to understand that when we are seeing this,

408
00:26:31,519 --> 00:26:38,519
the four horsemen of an economic apocalypse like this, even just as as as just as recently as covid,

409
00:26:38,639 --> 00:26:42,979
the start of covid lockdowns, bitcoin tank down to like eight thousand dollars

410
00:26:42,979 --> 00:26:45,759
and we're hanging out in the 50s right now.

411
00:26:45,759 --> 00:26:48,779
You know, you got to be kidding me. That's massively bullish. That's massive.

412
00:26:49,319 --> 00:26:52,399
That means collectively we've repriced Bitcoin.

413
00:26:52,659 --> 00:26:55,619
And even if it continues to slide, the fact that it's holding on and hanging

414
00:26:55,619 --> 00:26:58,359
to these levels means as a community,

415
00:26:58,499 --> 00:27:02,199
we have repriced what expensive and cheap Bitcoin is in our head.

416
00:27:02,419 --> 00:27:05,079
And to us now, 50,000 seems cheap.

417
00:27:05,579 --> 00:27:08,339
That's a remarkable land shift for all of us to have taken.

418
00:27:08,859 --> 00:27:13,659
So my word is, my advice I should say is don't panic, but be prepared.

419
00:27:14,159 --> 00:27:17,679
There could be more to come for a bit. we're going to be in this unknown phase

420
00:27:17,679 --> 00:27:22,139
for a little while. And I think it's pretty common to see a big dip before a rate cut as well.

421
00:27:22,879 --> 00:27:27,119
So there was some school of thought that this was coming if we were going to get a rate cut.

422
00:27:27,419 --> 00:27:31,979
And now the conversation around rate cuts has absolutely shifted to win rate

423
00:27:31,979 --> 00:27:33,639
cuts. It's a foregone conclusion now.

424
00:27:33,959 --> 00:27:37,259
And when that happens, you're going to see Bitcoin pump again.

425
00:27:37,799 --> 00:27:43,719
And there are years where all of Bitcoin's price action happens in just 10 days of the year.

426
00:27:43,719 --> 00:27:48,219
That's happened before where Bitcoin is just sideways, it crab walks,

427
00:27:48,579 --> 00:27:53,259
it steps down for a while, and then it rips for 10 days and reaches all time new highs.

428
00:27:53,339 --> 00:27:56,979
And then it fights around that new level for a while. It's pretty common.

429
00:27:57,399 --> 00:28:00,779
This could be a historically great buying opportunity.

430
00:28:01,179 --> 00:28:04,699
It's a great time to implement DCA, daily cash average.

431
00:28:04,799 --> 00:28:09,999
Don't go all in on one particular price point because could slide for a bit, could also rip.

432
00:28:10,259 --> 00:28:12,779
You just don't know when things are this volatile.

433
00:28:13,159 --> 00:28:17,379
So if you DCA and you purchase a little bit at a time, you can be purchasing

434
00:28:17,379 --> 00:28:21,359
into the dip or into the pump, and you're not going all in on one particular price level.

435
00:28:21,919 --> 00:28:26,159
It's all about staying rational. It's all about recognizing that this happened

436
00:28:26,159 --> 00:28:27,719
before and it will happen again.

437
00:28:27,859 --> 00:28:30,339
In fact, this is my last clip of the episode.

438
00:28:30,499 --> 00:28:34,999
This is a fantastic clip of Peter Lynch talking about pullbacks in the stock

439
00:28:34,999 --> 00:28:37,039
market back when I was like a kid.

440
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:41,239
But you should study history, and history is the important thing you learn from.

441
00:28:41,539 --> 00:28:43,459
What you learn from history is the market goes down.

442
00:28:44,059 --> 00:28:49,139
It goes down a lot. The math is simple. There's been 93 years this century. This is easy to do.

443
00:28:50,436 --> 00:28:55,776
The market's had 50 declines of 10% or more. So 50 declines in 93 years.

444
00:28:56,256 --> 00:29:00,256
About once every two years, the market falls 10%. We call that a correction.

445
00:29:00,456 --> 00:29:03,256
That means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly.

446
00:29:03,436 --> 00:29:05,796
But we call it a correction.

447
00:29:07,216 --> 00:29:11,676
So 50 declines in 93 years. About once every two years, the market falls 10%.

448
00:29:11,676 --> 00:29:17,896
Of those 50 declines, 15 have been 25% or more. That's known as a bear market.

449
00:29:18,416 --> 00:29:21,736
We've had 15 the clients in 93 years so

450
00:29:21,736 --> 00:29:25,536
every six years the markets gonna have a 25% decline that's all

451
00:29:25,536 --> 00:29:28,296
you need to know you need to know the markets gonna go down sometime

452
00:29:28,296 --> 00:29:32,736
if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it

453
00:29:32,736 --> 00:29:37,896
happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand

454
00:29:37,896 --> 00:29:40,816
the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine and you're hoping

455
00:29:40,816 --> 00:29:46,656
to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so So you take

456
00:29:46,656 --> 00:29:47,696
advantage of these declines.

457
00:29:47,856 --> 00:29:50,096
They're going to happen. No one knows when they're going to happen.

458
00:29:50,996 --> 00:29:53,256
People tell you about it after the fact that they predicted it,

459
00:29:53,296 --> 00:29:54,756
but they predicted it 53 times.

460
00:29:56,316 --> 00:30:00,276
So you can take advantage of the volatility in the market if you understand what you own.

461
00:30:01,036 --> 00:30:05,856
So I think that's the key element. Another key element is that you have plenty of time.

462
00:30:06,836 --> 00:30:11,356
People are in an unbelievable rush to buy a stock. I'll give you an example

463
00:30:11,356 --> 00:30:12,316
of a well-known company.

464
00:30:13,076 --> 00:30:15,456
Walmart went public in October of 1970.

465
00:30:16,396 --> 00:30:23,016
In 1970 it went public. Already had a great record. It had 15 years performance, great balance sheet.

466
00:30:23,476 --> 00:30:26,996
You could have waited 10 years saying you're a very conservative investor.

467
00:30:27,076 --> 00:30:28,756
You're not sure this Walmart can make it.

468
00:30:29,036 --> 00:30:32,816
You want to check. You see them operate in small towns. You're afraid they can

469
00:30:32,816 --> 00:30:35,056
only make it in seven or eight states. You want to wait until they go to more states.

470
00:30:35,396 --> 00:30:39,036
You keep waiting. You could have bought Walmart 10 years after it went public

471
00:30:39,036 --> 00:30:41,336
and made 35 times your money.

472
00:30:41,976 --> 00:30:44,316
If you bought it when they went public, you would have made 500 times your money.

473
00:30:44,316 --> 00:30:49,016
But you can wait 10 years after Walmart went public and made over 30 times your

474
00:30:49,016 --> 00:30:51,156
money. There you have it. Peter Lynch from 1994.

475
00:30:52,516 --> 00:30:55,316
I will wrap it up right there. Thank you so much for joining me.

476
00:30:55,336 --> 00:30:57,536
Please do boost in if you found this valuable.

477
00:30:57,696 --> 00:31:01,716
My node now actually should be sorted. I think I had some channel issues that

478
00:31:01,716 --> 00:31:04,736
I didn't realize in the last episode. So some of you tried to boost and it failed.

479
00:31:04,916 --> 00:31:07,996
But it should be working now. And I'd appreciate a little bit of help testing

480
00:31:07,996 --> 00:31:09,716
it if you'd like to send a boost in.

481
00:31:10,316 --> 00:31:12,896
Links to what I talked about today are at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

482
00:31:13,056 --> 00:31:16,496
And I'm going to leave you with a song that really spanks. So you've been warned.

483
00:31:16,816 --> 00:31:22,336
You've been warned. This is Jim Cramer pumps CrowdStrike and dumps Bitcoin by Anonymous.

484
00:31:22,636 --> 00:31:27,256
Bitcoin is about to go down big. And I would sell my Bitcoin right into this rally.

485
00:31:27,436 --> 00:31:31,276
And believe me, I had been a believer one time in Bitcoin. Not here, not now.

486
00:31:31,676 --> 00:31:37,076
One company that seems to be immune because it's now the king of cyber, which is CrowdStrike.

487
00:31:37,216 --> 00:31:42,256
Now they report June 4th. This company has yet to miss a quarter since it came public.

488
00:31:42,436 --> 00:31:46,356
That's the last remaining domino, and I don't think that domino is going to...

489
00:31:47,440 --> 00:33:09,953
Music.
