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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 129.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com and jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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The AI trade, still in a bit of a funk.

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You might even call it a bit of an unwind.

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It turns out when you increase the cost of borrowing, it gets a little harder to throw money at every random A idea or build out that comes along.

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And it's really not clear yet when the problem will clear up because what seems to be really causing inflation and thus rates to go up is energy problems.

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That's what's really putting pressure on inflation.

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So let's start there, a little bit of macro, and then we're going to get into some Bitcoin.

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As if the macro doesn't impact Bitcoin, Bitcoin is a macro asset.

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Are you getting it yet?

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Just before I went on air, the Bank of Canada raised their rates to 2.5%.

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And while I'm recording, probably right now, this very moment,

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your buddy, Federal Chair Warsh, is up there and he is expected to do nothing.

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No rate cuts at all this time.

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The next Mike McKee is down in Washington.

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He joins us for more.

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Good morning, Mike.

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Good morning, John.

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Well, it is, as you say, conventional wisdom right now that the Fed is going to be on hold

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and not raise rates today.

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They might do it December 9th.

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That's at least the way the futures are pricing right now, which leaves us with a question

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of what happens next?

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What do they say about all of this?

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The expectation is we will get some dissents.

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Definitely Hammock and Logan, they've suggested as much.

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and neil kashkari is the third who has dissented in the past year we'll see if he joins them in

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that and then we go to the news conference and the focus is going to be on why you were talking about

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it inflation going the wrong direction all right so they haven't actually had the press conference

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yet but the notes have been released here's what we know the federal reserve is leaving interest

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rates in the united states unchanged after the september hike the rate pause was a 10 to 2

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decision, there were two dissents with Cook and Hammock dissenting in favor of a rate hike.

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The Fed says economic activity is expanding at a, quote, stronger pace. And Fed says inflation

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remains, quote, elevated and seeks more information. The Fed notes that the geopolitical

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developments are contributing to uncertainty. And the Fed asserts that, quote, the committee

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will deliver price stability. OK, so essentially, yeah, they're still signaling as much as they do

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signal that they're going to raise rates in December. But they did not raise rates today,

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as expected. The reason why, okay, so why is it expected? Why was it as expected? It's not

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guaranteed the rate hikes will do any good. This is a really tough one for old Kevin. I don't know

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why the hell he took this job. You see, you hike rates, well, the AI trade gets even harder to fund.

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GDP starts to fall off a cliff. But the housing market, we don't talk about the housing market a

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lot on this show because it's not really driving global liquidity, but it is absolutely driving

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the U.S. market. And housing will not respond well to a rate increase. So that's another calculus.

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But the worst part of it might be, for Kevin, if you could have empathy for the Fed chair,

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if energy is the real driver of inflation at the moment, if we just accept that argument,

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even if the conflict in Iran were to wrap up, say, in December,

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there's still second and third order impacts on production. But more importantly,

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shipping. So while oil prices in a barrel might go down when the conflict resolves,

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we don't know for sure if the prices we actually pay at the pump will go down.

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I think that we will likely drift back down to, say, 60s by the end of next year,

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should the war end. But I think there's a scenario where you see crude oil fall back,

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but we haven't repaired the situation in Russia and Ukraine. And the Houthis are still harassing

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you know, Red Sea refineries.

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You could end up in a scenario

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where you still have,

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let's say a $60 Brent,

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but you still have $100 a barrel diesel crack.

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So you're still at this kind of,

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you know, like 150, $160 a barrel diesel.

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Like that is a scenario

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that I think is very plausible.

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And that's because while very clearly,

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I think we have too much

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upstream crude oil production capacity

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structure in the world.

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What's very clear is that

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we increasingly do not have

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enough refining capacity

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to transform it reliably

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into what we need.

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And given those shipping rate floods,

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more and more of those refineries

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are not conveniently located

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next to either consuming regions

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or to the sources of oil.

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So you're often, for instance,

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you know, India would often import crude

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from the Middle East

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and then re-export diesel to Europe.

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That's an extraordinarily expensive trade now

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given how expensive shipping is.

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So up until recently,

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we never really thought about this

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because essentially time and distance

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was nearly free in the oil market.

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shipping on tankers was so cheap that it was really, really easy to arbitrage these various

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markets, you know, from surplus to deficit, et cetera. But now you've essentially this

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explosion of shipping rates has essentially fractured that global oil market into a

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balkanized oil market that's increasingly difficult to effectively arbitrage between

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those pools. I think that's the reality we're now going to deal with until we can sort that out.

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So here's where I see it. A Fed rate hike, I'm of the school of thought that when they

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rate change, either down or up, there are immediate market effects that take effect. And we see that

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priced in in stocks and sometimes bonds and the money rates for like, you know, mortgages.

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But the actual real long tail impact, like the supply chain side and the economic price chain,

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all of that, like the stuff where it impacts the prices in the grocery store and all, it takes a

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year or two. And I just say that having watched this now play out, there are immediate effects,

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but the real long tail effects are one to two years. And so when the Fed raises rates,

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they're really raising rates almost into the future or lowering rates into the past. It's

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delayed the effect that it has. So that's one problem they have. Plus, this energy situation

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is moving really fast. And if this does play out, where even if the oil price comes down to like 60

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or $70 a barrel doesn't necessarily mean that's what the truckers will be paying at the pump.

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That makes a Fed rate cut even less effective.

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What do you think about kind of the perverse set of incentives for the Fed that's been set up here

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in the sense that financial conditions are already tightening and for the Fed to do more at this

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point when all of the catalysts are coming from exogenous factors like oil and things like that.

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I mean, PBI we could talk about, but like, you know, I saw a Bloomberg headline this morning that said CoreWeave has made it impossible for the Fed to hike again.

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And don't you think that's not even just a tail wagging the dog?

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It's I mean, this isn't supposed to be how monetary policy works, right?

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This fun podcast is The Market Hang, and it's featured by Yahoo Finance.

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And apparently the hosts are perhaps becoming an aware bear.

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We talked about CoreWeave last week, and it's not really the focus of the clip, but there is that question.

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Does stock market performance impact the short-term Fed rate decision-making?

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It's not supposed to, but it kind of seems like it does.

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This isn't supposed to be how monetary policy works, right?

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And I hope that the Fed isn't taking into their calculus core weaves current financial condition.

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Perhaps they are. I hope they are not.

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But I just go back to my opening statement.

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If, in fact, the majority of the current inflationary pressures, as we saw from CPI recently, are oil and gas.

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Right. We actually saw reductions month over month in poultry and meat prices and in dairy prices.

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If the bulk of it now is in energy, right, what is the Fed or Reserve raising by 25 basis

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points?

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Let's just say they raised by another 25 basis points this year.

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What's that going to do to bring down the price of oil?

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So if they get this wrong and they continue to raise interest rates to try and combat oil inflationary pressures do they start to now pull forward one of those potential rate cuts into early 2027

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if we start to see more weakness

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in the other side of their dual mandate,

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that being the labor market?

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So I hope they're not taking in core weave

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into their calculus for the October meeting.

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If they are, I think we have a lot more problems right now.

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I want to bring this back to why I say this sort of makes the AI trade a little shaky or a bit of an unwind because we've got an inflation driver that we can't really get a handle on, at least yet.

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There may be levers there that could be pulled.

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You've got a Fed, though, that only has one lever, and that's rates, a credit market that's

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already getting tight as a response to where the Fed seems to be going and has gone, and

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an AI build-out that's becoming starved for cash and resources, both in build-out in terms

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of physical infrastructure, but then acquiring chips and all of that kind of stuff.

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So I want to play Michael Howell here.

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He joined David Lin, and he lays out the bear case for the ongoing funding of the AI market

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and build-out.

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Going back to Meta as an example, earnings came out last night.

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Free cash flow was negative last quarter at $2.12 billion.

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They're sitting on $82 billion of cash currently.

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If free cash flow continues to be negative, where at least doesn't grow substantially,

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the concern is that they won't be able to fund their own build out internally,

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which means they have to raise capital.

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Now, they've actually introduced a new classy common stock in preparation for,

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I guess, the anticipation of needing fresh capital.

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So what does the AI sector face right now?

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What are their biggest hurdles?

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And how do they overcome those hurdles?

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Well, I think it's how they overcome it.

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I think it's going to be very difficult.

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I think you've got a lot of parallels in the past.

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I mean, people have alluded to, you know, what happened to the railroads.

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I mean, railroad infrastructure is still there.

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But clearly, the companies that originally put that down are not.

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The same thing as you look at fiber optic cable.

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Fiber optic 20 years ago was the darling of the market.

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Global Crossing was a major IPO that came in the late 90s to the street.

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You know, it got off well on a great footing.

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But within five years, Global Crossing was in Chapter 11.

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And it was simply because, not because the technology was bad, but simply because margins on fiber optic collapsed by 80%.

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Now, see, this is why I'm not a fan of using the dot-com bust or fiber optic bust as a parallel to AI.

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I'm old enough now to have been there.

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In fact, it really screwed up the job market for me for a little bit as a kid that had gotten out of school and was trying to get into the tech industry.

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And so I kind of remember it pretty well.

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And the bit that is left off when people make the analysis of the dot-com boom and say, oh, well, you know, we got some Amazons out of that.

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Because that's a valid argument, and I think there's something to it.

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But there is a piece of the analysis that is missed.

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The reason why the margins dropped off, the reason why the fiber optic build out stopped,

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the reason why so many dot-com companies went bust is because there were no customers.

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Nerds like me weren't enough to sustain the bubble.

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Most people were still afraid to put their credit card on the internet.

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Some didn't even come around until COVID.

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And my wife works with patients who still refuse to order anything online.

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They come to her for some reason in some cases.

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Like it's, I think, a lost bit of history that the reason why Pets.com failed is because there weren't enough customers.

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The business was kind of crazy, but nothing more bonkers than what we have today with DoorDash or Uber or anything like that.

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But there's a sustainable market there now.

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And I think you could make the argument that there is a market, an argument for the market.

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I don't know.

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Look at the IPO from Anthropic.

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There's a lot of weird stuff in there.

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But they're also making $16 billion.

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That's money.

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OpenAI has a lot of costs, but they're making money.

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The question is, how can they square that?

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Can they end up making enough money to cover all this debt?

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That's where the questions lie.

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But they are making money.

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So where this bear analysis, I think, sort of falls down is in that regard.

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But I still think there is some merit to the argument.

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Knowledge was bad, but simply because margins on fiber optic collapsed by 80%.

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And this is the problem.

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You need cash flow generation to keep financing the debt that you're taking on.

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And the debt that is being taken on, as has just been alluded to, is eye-wateringly large.

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I mean, we're talking at least $2 trillion next year and after probably one and a half

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or whatever it may be this year.

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So these are big, big amounts of debt that are coming onto the market at a time when you've

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also got what is called the debt maturity wall, which is the echo effect from the COVID

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years when a lot of investors decided that they would take advantage of zero interest rates or

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low rates and basically term out their debt into the latter part of this decade. But that is coming

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to the fore now to be rolled over at a time when you've got new debt coming on from the AI CapEx,

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from the federal government, et cetera. And that's just talking about America. What about

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the rest of the world? Yeah, that's the part I actually think he's kind of on about. He's right.

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So we've got an inflation driver we can't get our handle on, at least yet.

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And you got this Fed in their situation.

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You've got now this lending situation with the credit market that's getting tougher.

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And in some cases, the bond market's demonstrated they'd rather buy a tech company bond than a federal government bond.

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All of that is really positioning Bitcoin.

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And that's why when you get guys that are in this AI trade and they come out on podcasts or on social media with arrogance and this cocksureness of where they're going and they trash on Bitcoin, I've got to respond.

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I had to be clear.

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I think the AI technology is a sure bet.

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We've only begun to use it, and it has so much more,

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especially when it comes to purpose-built models,

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smaller models, the harnesses around these things.

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Boy, howdy.

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Some of these AI companies, though, let's be honest,

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They're either going to go away or they're going to get consolidated.

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And if the recent market realities didn't bring any level of humility to the billionaires that have gotten rich early in the AI trade, it's like they don't sniff anything coming.

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Well, we have a perfect example.

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Chamath.

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Chamath Palitapia or whatever.

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He was an early backer in Grok.

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Of course, he got his first money from Facebook, but he was an early backer in Grok with a Q, the inference company.

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and Forbes estimate that when they sold to NVIDIA,

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his office made somewhere around $1.2 billion.

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Of course, Chamath has not won every trade.

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He did hold approximately 2,739 Bitcoin in 2014.

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And in early 2020, he sold the rest of his stash

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to Digital Currency Group in exchange for equity

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and no longer holds Bitcoin.

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However, because of his recent success in the AI trade,

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when he speaks, people listen and play clips of it.

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So at this point, you probably know it's coming.

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On Peter Diamond's Moonshots podcast, Chamath agreed that Bitcoin is done.

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So take a listen.

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And then I just want to address a few of these claims because they're probably going to get propagated around.

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You're probably hearing people talk about it.

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And the fact of the matter is Chamath got the technical details dead wrong.

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Great.

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All right.

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So I'll kick it off.

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So OpenAI solves 722 math problems.

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None of them reported encryption.

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I'm assuming that encryption was to a significant degree cracked if it was pointed in that direction.

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What's your view on crypto given the meteoric rise of superintelligence here?

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Are we safe or are we not?

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I think it's capped.

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I think that traditional crypto lacks the fungibility to have all forms of buyers.

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The buying pool is really retail, then institutionals, and then central banks.

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And retail lacks the fungibility to be owned by central banks.

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So it's capped from that perspective.

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Then it's capped because there are enough leaks around who owns what that now creates security risks.

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I think France being the best example where I think the French government forced publication of who owned what crypto assets and you had just a complete flurry of kidnappings.

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I'll just address this one really quick.

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I'm not sure why this is Bitcoin's fault necessarily.

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They could have it was a leak from a French tax office They could have just as easily leaked people that have real estate holdings right Or business owners gold holdings So that wasn really a fault of Bitcoin I just I don need to you know I respond to some of this later but that one right away

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is just sort of, come on.

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That's just like lumping in random.

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Location of who owned what crypto assets and you had just a complete flurry of kidnappings

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and, you know, all kinds of really bad things.

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And then the third is around.

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Really just one more thing.

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It's really a case for no KYC.

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it's a case for not registering your assets with your government is what it is because it was leaked

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from an off a tax office and then people people's lives were ruined as a result so it's it's actually

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it's funny because chamath is known as the dictator he's always just so for my he's all about

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he thinks all ai should be kyc'd but it's really actually an argument against kyc but he's too

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dense to realize it it's a complete flurry of kidnappings and you know all kinds of really

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bad things. And then the third is around AI, where if you believe that recursive self-improvement is...

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I love that he puts RSI in here. Like RSI has anything to do with it.

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You know, I guess the implication is that RSI means that AI is going to get better so fast,

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it's going to get so fast better. Oh my gosh.

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Around AI, where if you believe that, you know, recursive self-improvement is pointed towards,

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you know, cryptographic hacks, the most obvious thing to point it to would be to Satoshi's wallet

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and, you know, to break SHA-256 and just kind of drain the wallet and then go short and then tell

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people that you did it. So then you'd make the money twice. That's the most honest admission

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right there is, of course, he would skimoth if this happened. He would pull a little skimoth

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and he would short everybody. That's the biggest tell right there in this entire clip.

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And then tell people that you did it. So then you'd make the money twice.

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all those things I think are realistic reasons why it's capped and there's an upper bound.

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And so it's incumbent on these efforts to migrate to quantum secure, quantum resistant

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cryptographic mechanisms, which as you can see in the Bitcoin community is basically impossible

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because it's a bunch of people that can't even agree, you know, where to meet, let alone

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let alone what time the meeting starts at.

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So I think crypto is a bit lost.

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They don't get on Zoom.

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What's here?

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So do you think Bitcoin is cooked?

291
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I just think it's capped.

292
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And then I think eventually it gets hacked.

293
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I love a 68-year-old man using the term cooked.

294
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Bitcoin is cooked?

295
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I just think it's capped.

296
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And then I think eventually it gets hacked.

297
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And then it goes to zero.

298
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Do you own Bitcoin?

299
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Are you willing to say?

300
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Through a company.

301
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Through a company called Digital Currency Group.

302
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So I had this very long term investment in Bitcoin.

303
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I seeded it to DCG a long time ago.

304
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They started up a bunch of ETFs.

305
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They gave me stock in return.

306
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And that was much better for me because then I alleviated myself of the storage risk and

307
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the security risk and I had equity.

308
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Oh, oh, OK.

309
00:20:10,178 --> 00:20:14,019
So let's go through some of this because Chimaz's own numbers of his Bitcoin stash have been

310
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all over the place.

311
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But I did have some bots do some digging through multiple podcasts and interviews.

312
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and his most commonly cited number is that he once held 100,000 Bitcoin,

313
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which today would be roughly worth $8 billion.

314
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Something tells me the equity he got in Digital Currency Group

315
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probably isn't worth $8 billion.

316
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So he may have some bias in this conversation

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because he is, if you will, all in on the AI trade.

318
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But let's talk about the one that's just so disappointing

319
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because Chamath likes to present himself as a deep researcher.

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He'll often talk about how he has a team of people

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that go real deep into topics and he just becomes an expert. And then he goes and, you know,

322
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shares sometimes some of his musings on X. The problem is, is that he conflates SHA-256 and

323
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signatures. SHA-256, which is for proof of work, you know, the mining aspect, is highly resilient

324
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and is likely not going to get cracked by AI because the math is the math of the, it's just

325
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the physics. Of course, there is the actual quantum risk to Bitcoin, which is the elliptic

326
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curve signatures via Shor's algorithm on exposed public keys, which is the bit where he's kind of

327
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confused and maybe he's thinking about Satoshi's coins, I think. I'm trying to parse it, but I think

328
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that's how he gets to Satoshi's coins are going to get stolen or hacked or whatever he said.

329
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And he equates the theft of Satoshi's coins. He's making some leaps here. He equates the

330
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theft of Satoshi's coins with the collapse of the Bitcoin network. That's that's ridiculous.

331
00:21:44,879 --> 00:21:48,418
First of all, I've said it before. I ask you to ask yourself the same question.

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If Satoshi's coins came up for sale for five dollars, right, if the price of Bitcoin crashed

333
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because everybody lost faith and so they're trading it like a dollar, five dollars,

334
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would you not spend a few hundred dollars to buy some Satoshi coins? I know there's

335
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I know they're supposed to be. I know they're not supposed to be special, but they're, you know,

336
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satoshi's coins i mean anyways i my point is there would be a rabid market to buy bitcoin at that

337
00:22:14,278 --> 00:22:20,158
price it just simply would become a redistribution it isn't a fundamental flaw in the network it

338
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would become a redistribution of those early coins and maybe something kind of beautiful in a way

339
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if satoshi has passed you know he has kind of given them to the network by reducing the supply

340
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but you know have at it we just got a bunch of new coins it's the only way you're ever going to

341
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get more coins. But I think that's how he gets there. And I just think it's other people said

342
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that it's silly. The criticism that I think sticks the most is probably worth addressing.

343
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And we're going to talk more about this in the quantum section in the updates. But it's it's

344
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possible to upgrade Bitcoin. It's not always easy. It's made up of individuals of incentives.

345
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But we'll get to that. The one I want to come to now is because this is what sparked this

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conversation is AI hacking is going to make this really easy because of recursive self-improvement.

347
00:23:10,619 --> 00:23:15,859
That doesn't break fundamental cryptographic assumptions. And so saying it goes to zero

348
00:23:15,859 --> 00:23:21,839
because of that is an extreme crazy loop, a leap, not a recursive loop. It's a crazy leap.

349
00:23:22,198 --> 00:23:26,619
Maybe Chamath should talk to his good old buddy Elon on how the fundamentals of maths work.

350
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You can also cryptographically sign things.

351
00:23:29,938 --> 00:23:41,099
Like, you know, mathematically, we don't see any way, for example, for AI to subvert the fundamentals of mathematics and say, figure out how to hash Bitcoin.

352
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AI can't defy fundamental math.

353
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Yeah.

354
00:23:45,378 --> 00:23:53,858
So we can improve the efficiency of Bitcoin hashing algorithms in the silicon, but not fundamentally crack it.

355
00:23:53,859 --> 00:24:16,539
So, you know, I guess in a way it's our advantage that there's people on the other side of this trade, right? If there weren't people like Chamath making these mistakes, Bitcoin would probably be worth more than $80,000. And the people who do understand, the people who are on the other side of what you might call the panic trade, they continue to build either their stash or services. And even Coinbase is one of them.

356
00:24:16,539 --> 00:24:44,339
And they're making a pivot that I kind of have been feeling coming for a while now. And this is Brett Chappal. And I don't know if I'm saying that right, but he's on Coinbase. He's like a co-CEO of their institutional stuff. And he was on BMTV. But he's talking about a pivot that Coinbase is making in the market that I think we're all going to look back at as an obvious change and probably one that's going to make them a much bigger player in Bitcoin and a lot more money.

357
00:24:44,339 --> 00:25:04,378
And you mentioned the second wave of institutional capital coming to Bitcoin. Do you expect that wave to be mostly driven by, you know, additional allocations of people who already have some exposure to Bitcoin, maybe just increasing that percentage? Or do you think the bigger opportunity for Bitcoin might be from net new market entrance?

358
00:25:04,378 --> 00:25:11,458
I think it's definitely the latter. I mean, people that have gone into Bitcoin and they've already

359
00:25:11,458 --> 00:25:15,799
sort of had this sort of come back to earth moment when we hit like 120s and came back to

360
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80s, but I'm still seeing follow on, you know, allocations to the space. But certainly the big

361
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upside is the next chapter, the chapter that we're in now. And so that's where, you know, early,

362
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early in the first phase, you know, venture funds, macro funds, private clients,

363
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than ETFs. So, ETS was the moment that unlocked the US RAA space. And now we're having all

364
00:25:40,618 --> 00:25:47,039
these integrations. And so maybe a not so well understood part of our business is Coinbase

365
00:25:47,039 --> 00:26:00,948
infrastructure So that probably deserves a quick word So that everything that we built that facilitates anyone to buy directly So to buy store sell finance stake do all the things you want to be able to do with crypto We actually

366
00:26:00,948 --> 00:26:06,928
we're having our Amazon to AWS pivot moment. And we're actually now externalizing. Internally,

367
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we call it CDP, Coinbase Developer Platform. Externally, we're calling it Coinbase Infrastructure.

368
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And so that's where players like Amazon and JP Morgan and Citibank and others are able to actually just use the infrastructure we've built to power their own clients' journeys.

369
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So that's really the thing about as like the indirect acquisition of existing clients that are on all of TradFi's platforms.

370
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And so in that moment, they're going to be able to like PNC, for example.

371
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You can now remain a PNC client and you can actually buy Bitcoin on the PNC app.

372
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And behind it, it's Coinbase's infrastructure that's powering that journey.

373
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So if I can do that with hundreds and then thousands of clients, then we've activated

374
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the whole U.S. in order to facilitate everyone's ability to actually buy Bitcoin and other

375
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crypto assets.

376
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We'll see how far they get.

377
00:26:58,668 --> 00:27:04,688
But the AWS aspect of it makes a lot of sense because Citi and JP Morgan and PNC don't want

378
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to have to have all of those services themselves.

379
00:27:07,048 --> 00:27:08,588
Coinbase is already a player in this market.

380
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Some of them probably own equity in Coinbase.

381
00:27:11,748 --> 00:27:13,308
There's always that aspect of it.

382
00:27:13,528 --> 00:27:17,168
It does seem like the right time to be getting this kind of stuff wired up.

383
00:27:17,628 --> 00:27:22,668
I mean, just as we kind of start to clear the four-year cycle, we'll get on the other side of the midterms.

384
00:27:23,348 --> 00:27:29,228
The ongoing debasement as policy seems to be obvious to even the most basic economic wonks now.

385
00:27:29,568 --> 00:27:32,488
And the biggest names in the world are getting behind Bitcoin.

386
00:27:32,488 --> 00:27:40,188
CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange, says Bitcoin functions primarily as a decentralized store of value.

387
00:27:40,568 --> 00:27:48,768
In an article on its Bitcoin ratio futures, CME says the asset is maturing along distinct economic, functional and regulatory paths.

388
00:27:48,948 --> 00:27:50,428
Stay a while and listen.

389
00:27:50,828 --> 00:27:54,668
All right. So let me tell you what I think is kind of changing here as an old timer.

390
00:27:54,668 --> 00:28:13,568
One of the things that's always failed with Bitcoin adoption at the institutional level in the past is it was always started either as an executive initiative to be hip and ride the trend waves or a radical group or person who worked inside that company, who's probably now later left and now does their own thing.

391
00:28:13,868 --> 00:28:19,528
And there was never really buy-off inside the institution at the regular people level.

392
00:28:19,848 --> 00:28:22,388
In fact, I would say there was the opposite of buy-off.

393
00:28:22,388 --> 00:28:26,548
what's happened in the last few years. And I think it's because of the obviousness of the

394
00:28:26,548 --> 00:28:31,688
debasement trade and the obviousness that this thing isn't just going away. There's been a

395
00:28:31,688 --> 00:28:38,008
changing of minds at the individual level inside these large financial institutions. And the reason

396
00:28:38,008 --> 00:28:42,708
why I say that is because I kind of monitor some of these, not all, but I monitor some of these

397
00:28:42,708 --> 00:28:49,068
economic podcasts where they bring these folks who are just employees of like, say, for example,

398
00:28:49,068 --> 00:28:53,508
J.P. Morgan or Fidelity or Charles Schwab.

399
00:28:53,568 --> 00:28:56,688
They just come on these podcasts and they kind of share their thoughts.

400
00:28:56,768 --> 00:28:58,728
These are the individuals working at the corporations.

401
00:28:59,628 --> 00:29:03,948
And this, I'm going to play a clip of Juran Timmer, probably getting that wrong as well.

402
00:29:04,348 --> 00:29:07,648
This is his personal view as Fidelity's macro director.

403
00:29:07,908 --> 00:29:09,908
And he was on the Compound and Friends podcast.

404
00:29:10,048 --> 00:29:15,208
If you listen, what you're about to hear is the old guard figuring it out.

405
00:29:15,208 --> 00:29:19,908
When you price Bitcoin in terms of gold, it's a really beautiful pattern.

406
00:29:20,068 --> 00:29:23,468
So I think gold's, I think Bitcoin's going to, I think they're both going to go up and

407
00:29:23,468 --> 00:29:27,268
Bitcoin's going to go up more, even though we're still kind of looking for a narrative.

408
00:29:27,408 --> 00:29:31,888
But as you know, when things move without a narrative, you always have to pay attention

409
00:29:31,888 --> 00:29:33,888
because that's, there's something going on.

410
00:29:34,008 --> 00:29:35,028
We just don't see it yet.

411
00:29:35,308 --> 00:29:41,408
Now that Bitcoin, in my view, has done a full winter, a mild winter, but even a year ago

412
00:29:41,408 --> 00:29:43,388
when it broke that trend line.

413
00:29:43,868 --> 00:29:46,088
And it's interesting, Bitcoin, as chaotic as it looks,

414
00:29:46,308 --> 00:29:48,868
when you put both time and price on a log scale,

415
00:29:49,408 --> 00:29:51,268
it's like a beautiful harmonic picture

416
00:29:51,268 --> 00:29:52,608
based on the power law.

417
00:29:52,828 --> 00:29:56,988
And every wave up and down fits a harmonic pattern.

418
00:29:57,228 --> 00:29:59,268
And that peak in 2025.

419
00:30:00,008 --> 00:30:02,628
And so at that point, based on trend lines.

420
00:30:02,628 --> 00:30:05,988
These guys love charts and trend lines, you guys.

421
00:30:06,068 --> 00:30:06,748
They love them.

422
00:30:07,048 --> 00:30:08,088
Peak in 2025.

423
00:30:08,088 --> 00:30:17,968
And so at that point, based on trend lines and knowing that every winter gets smaller, I'm like, you know, 60K is a level that I'm going to buy.

424
00:30:18,168 --> 00:30:19,148
And it went to 58.

425
00:30:19,548 --> 00:30:20,908
And not to toot my own.

426
00:30:21,028 --> 00:30:23,988
The Bitcoin winters are shrinking in length.

427
00:30:24,108 --> 00:30:25,388
Yeah, but so we hit 60.

428
00:30:25,388 --> 00:30:25,928
And depth.

429
00:30:26,468 --> 00:30:26,908
Yes.

430
00:30:27,428 --> 00:30:28,648
It's a maturing asset, right?

431
00:30:28,708 --> 00:30:31,568
So it's going to moon less and it's going to swoon less.

432
00:30:31,668 --> 00:30:33,168
And that's what maturing assets do.

433
00:30:33,168 --> 00:30:37,448
And then as recently as maybe a month or two ago, it was still at 60.

434
00:30:37,448 --> 00:30:40,128
And I'm like, OK, now I'm really going to pay attention.

435
00:30:40,308 --> 00:30:42,048
And then it broke above 80.

436
00:30:42,128 --> 00:30:43,468
That confirmed a double bottom.

437
00:30:44,148 --> 00:30:44,568
Listen to this guy.

438
00:30:44,648 --> 00:30:53,648
However he gets there, if he's got to sniff charts, if that's what it takes for him to get there, I'm impressed with the mental leap that they are making inside the institution.

439
00:30:54,208 --> 00:30:55,368
I think it makes a difference.

440
00:30:55,488 --> 00:30:59,808
There is one cloud hanging over all of their heads.

441
00:31:00,348 --> 00:31:01,948
So I want you to boost in.

442
00:31:03,168 --> 00:31:07,268
And tell me, are you worried about the quantum threat?

443
00:31:07,448 --> 00:31:10,968
I don't mean actually.

444
00:31:11,688 --> 00:31:15,468
Are you worried about it being negative on price action?

445
00:31:15,648 --> 00:31:18,168
Are you worried about people freaking out about the quantum threat?

446
00:31:18,548 --> 00:31:20,588
So as a result, here's the question, I suppose.

447
00:31:21,028 --> 00:31:21,728
Are you worried?

448
00:31:21,868 --> 00:31:25,488
And do you think Bitcoin should just start addressing it now, sooner than later?

449
00:31:26,028 --> 00:31:26,928
Why or why not?

450
00:31:27,388 --> 00:31:31,928
And stay tuned after the boost because I do have a big update on quantum risks.

451
00:31:35,228 --> 00:31:36,768
And there is work underway.

452
00:31:37,448 --> 00:31:41,468
So stay tuned. We'll have more on that. And I do want you to boost in your thoughts on that.

453
00:31:41,528 --> 00:31:45,168
So the question really is, is are you worried about it? Not just from a tech standpoint,

454
00:31:45,168 --> 00:31:48,508
but are you worried about it from it freaking new investors out? And do you think we should

455
00:31:48,508 --> 00:31:52,308
do something about that now? Why or why not? You know, it's kind of convoluted. Not my best

456
00:31:52,308 --> 00:31:56,528
question. I really think about it, but I do want to know. Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.

457
00:32:07,448 --> 00:32:28,968
I got links in the show notes so you can support the show just by doing what you do while you stack sats with River, the Bitcoin well, or Salt, Strike, whatever your focus might be.

458
00:32:29,068 --> 00:32:29,828
Maybe you want lending.

459
00:32:29,988 --> 00:32:31,068
Maybe you want something else.

460
00:32:31,128 --> 00:32:34,628
I got links in the show notes if you want to spend the Bitcoin company all over Lightning.

461
00:32:34,808 --> 00:32:35,508
It's great.

462
00:32:35,508 --> 00:32:37,128
it has been

463
00:32:37,128 --> 00:32:40,188
and it will always be a list of companies

464
00:32:40,188 --> 00:32:41,908
that I don't have a direct relationship with

465
00:32:41,908 --> 00:32:43,908
but ones I use and if I don't like them anymore

466
00:32:43,908 --> 00:32:45,888
like Fold, I take them off the list

467
00:32:45,888 --> 00:32:47,268
keep you updated

468
00:32:47,268 --> 00:32:49,828
keep you updated, you can support the show

469
00:32:49,828 --> 00:32:51,908
just by doing what you do by clicking those links before you go

470
00:32:51,908 --> 00:32:53,968
do one of those things, I appreciate you

471
00:33:05,508 --> 00:33:08,748
Four score and seven boosts to go.

472
00:33:08,808 --> 00:33:11,328
We do have some boosts to get to, so let's do it,

473
00:33:11,328 --> 00:33:17,188
because Satsquatch is kicking us off as our baller booster with 93,100 satushers.

474
00:33:17,268 --> 00:33:18,608
Hey, rich lobster!

475
00:33:24,768 --> 00:33:26,248
Chris, I listen on Castamantic.

476
00:33:26,428 --> 00:33:28,208
Something is going on there with your splash page,

477
00:33:28,248 --> 00:33:32,228
unless you intentionally added a bunch of strange code instead of English in the subtext.

478
00:33:32,948 --> 00:33:34,868
I'm bullish as the Bitcoin pump forever bullish.

479
00:33:34,868 --> 00:33:37,168
maybe not as bullish as Leon Wancombe

480
00:33:37,168 --> 00:33:39,228
who says it'll be 100 trillion

481
00:33:39,228 --> 00:33:40,948
asset. You know I was looking for my phone sorry

482
00:33:40,948 --> 00:33:43,068
I was distracted there. I listen in Cast-O-Matic

483
00:33:43,068 --> 00:33:45,168
and I review and I don't know what you're saying

484
00:33:45,168 --> 00:33:47,028
I'll have to double check on that

485
00:33:47,028 --> 00:33:49,068
It gets rendered as HTML

486
00:33:49,068 --> 00:33:50,888
so as long as Cast-O-Matic which it should be

487
00:33:50,888 --> 00:33:52,788
and also by the way brand new version of Cast-O-Matic

488
00:33:52,788 --> 00:33:55,048
came out today. So I'll do an update and I'll check

489
00:33:55,048 --> 00:33:57,028
on that. Thanks for the heads up stats. I do

490
00:33:57,028 --> 00:33:58,848
appreciate the squanching around

491
00:33:58,848 --> 00:34:00,628
and letting me know about problems. It's good to know

492
00:34:00,628 --> 00:34:02,828
I can't have eyes everywhere even though I thought I was

493
00:34:02,828 --> 00:34:04,848
checking. At least not yet

494
00:34:04,848 --> 00:34:08,048
BK2, BK2 is here

495
00:34:08,048 --> 00:34:11,368
with 77,777 Satoshis.

496
00:34:11,448 --> 00:34:13,968
I hoard that which your kind covet.

497
00:34:13,988 --> 00:34:15,388
Covenant hot with the boost.

498
00:34:15,548 --> 00:34:17,468
Out on Fall Colors Tour of the Northwest,

499
00:34:18,028 --> 00:34:20,528
of the Northeast US for the last couple of weeks.

500
00:34:20,688 --> 00:34:22,248
Wow, what a great thing to do.

501
00:34:22,688 --> 00:34:24,968
Rod dogged 4,700 miles, right?

502
00:34:25,108 --> 00:34:25,828
You gotta think.

503
00:34:26,628 --> 00:34:27,128
You gotta think.

504
00:34:27,648 --> 00:34:28,288
So catching up.

505
00:34:28,408 --> 00:34:29,288
Disappointed in fold.

506
00:34:29,388 --> 00:34:31,888
Really love the passive stacking from the credit card.

507
00:34:31,888 --> 00:34:33,168
But with this whole reserve...

508
00:34:33,182 --> 00:34:38,402
portion. Yikes. Any good Bitcoin specific rewards cards? Is there a tax advantage to credit card

509
00:34:38,402 --> 00:34:42,142
rewards? You know, I have thought that that could be the truth about credit card rewards.

510
00:34:42,942 --> 00:34:47,622
They may be. I don't know. That's something definitely to look into. To me, to my eyes,

511
00:34:47,702 --> 00:34:52,842
the Gemini credit card is the best one to go for because the Coinbase card can offer you more,

512
00:34:52,922 --> 00:34:57,902
but you have to store a bunch of Bitcoin with Coinbase. Then there's the Fold card. They still

513
00:34:57,902 --> 00:35:02,962
do offer a credit card, which is probably going to be fine. It just doesn't quite have the same

514
00:35:02,962 --> 00:35:05,002
rewards going to be more like 1.5%.

515
00:35:05,002 --> 00:35:06,922
So it's hard to beat the Gemini card,

516
00:35:07,262 --> 00:35:09,002
I think, unfortunately, because it's

517
00:35:09,002 --> 00:35:10,342
not like I'm a huge fan of Gemini.

518
00:35:10,822 --> 00:35:13,002
But I have had one for a while and used

519
00:35:13,002 --> 00:35:14,662
it on and off for some, you know, purchases.

520
00:35:14,942 --> 00:35:16,382
So it's worked for me.

521
00:35:16,922 --> 00:35:18,502
I don't use it as my daily driver, though.

522
00:35:19,162 --> 00:35:20,962
Maybe I will. I do after I am still

523
00:35:20,962 --> 00:35:22,382
in the process of sorting this out.

524
00:35:22,842 --> 00:35:24,862
So maybe I'll give you guys an update on what

525
00:35:24,862 --> 00:35:26,342
my pipeline is when I'm finally done.

526
00:35:27,182 --> 00:35:29,202
Paltoon comes in with 50,000

527
00:35:29,202 --> 00:35:30,022
Satoshis.

528
00:35:31,022 --> 00:35:32,422
Fun will now commence.

529
00:35:32,422 --> 00:35:34,802
Long time listener, first time booster.

530
00:35:35,042 --> 00:35:35,402
Yes.

531
00:35:35,502 --> 00:35:36,782
That's not possible.

532
00:35:36,922 --> 00:35:37,962
Nothing can do that.

533
00:35:38,602 --> 00:35:44,682
I'd love to be able to boost TWIB via Bolt 12, reoccurring payment, payment flow where you or address TWIB at Jupyter Broadcasting with my Phoenix wall.

534
00:35:44,842 --> 00:35:45,362
I know.

535
00:35:47,062 --> 00:35:51,062
Would integration of Bolt 12 notes with your boost system be hard using Phoenix T?

536
00:35:51,642 --> 00:35:54,282
So there's a couple of things holding up Bolt 12.

537
00:35:54,282 --> 00:36:00,442
You know, Paul, Bolt 12 would have, would have, man, if podcasting 2.0 could have just

538
00:36:00,442 --> 00:36:04,002
used Bolt 12, we would have had, we would have bypassed so many problems.

539
00:36:04,622 --> 00:36:05,582
So I am watching it.

540
00:36:05,662 --> 00:36:08,662
There is a couple of dependencies still because I want to maintain some compatibility.

541
00:36:09,382 --> 00:36:13,042
But as soon as I can, you'll probably be the first to notice, I bet.

542
00:36:13,142 --> 00:36:14,302
Thank you very much for the boost.

543
00:36:14,942 --> 00:36:18,802
Derivation Dingus is here with 22,222 Satoshis McDuck boost.

544
00:36:18,942 --> 00:36:21,122
Things are looking up for old McDuck.

545
00:36:21,642 --> 00:36:23,842
I've been super busy lately, but I never miss an episode.

546
00:36:24,062 --> 00:36:24,722
Thanks for the value.

547
00:36:24,842 --> 00:36:25,802
Well, thank you, Derivation.

548
00:36:26,462 --> 00:36:28,002
I really, really appreciate that.

549
00:36:28,442 --> 00:36:30,642
Obi's here with 21,000 sats.

550
00:36:30,822 --> 00:36:33,242
It's a long history of 21 gigawatts.

551
00:36:33,422 --> 00:36:34,362
Cold open was awesome.

552
00:36:34,602 --> 00:36:35,782
Made me chuckle.

553
00:36:36,522 --> 00:36:36,842
All right.

554
00:36:37,602 --> 00:36:37,942
All right.

555
00:36:38,562 --> 00:36:40,762
Yeah, I had our, you know, let me tell you something.

556
00:36:41,922 --> 00:36:43,582
Last week's episode was cursed.

557
00:36:44,242 --> 00:36:44,782
All right?

558
00:36:44,882 --> 00:36:46,062
I don't even want to talk about it.

559
00:36:46,162 --> 00:36:47,822
I was going to talk, I don't even want to talk about it.

560
00:36:48,622 --> 00:36:49,822
There's systems in place.

561
00:36:50,562 --> 00:36:51,722
Should have caught these things.

562
00:36:52,782 --> 00:36:53,542
Things happened.

563
00:36:53,842 --> 00:36:55,682
new systems are in place.

564
00:36:56,202 --> 00:36:57,222
That's what I'm saying.

565
00:36:57,622 --> 00:36:58,902
That is what I am saying.

566
00:36:59,042 --> 00:36:59,622
You know what I mean?

567
00:37:00,162 --> 00:37:00,742
Thanks, Opie.

568
00:37:01,562 --> 00:37:05,102
Cypher Citizens here with 12,345 sats,

569
00:37:05,182 --> 00:37:05,862
space balls boost.

570
00:37:06,022 --> 00:37:10,142
So the combination is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

571
00:37:10,362 --> 00:37:12,282
And so it's bullish in the long term.

572
00:37:12,542 --> 00:37:12,862
Yes.

573
00:37:13,002 --> 00:37:13,582
That's amazing.

574
00:37:13,682 --> 00:37:15,222
I've got the same combination on my luggage.

575
00:37:15,282 --> 00:37:16,442
That makes sense to me, buddy.

576
00:37:16,502 --> 00:37:17,262
Makes sense to me.

577
00:37:17,862 --> 00:37:19,862
Yukon Cornelius is here with 5,000 sats.

578
00:37:23,842 --> 00:37:41,642
I think if I already had most of my liquid net worth infidelity or Schwab account and I could consolidate a million dollars worth of Bitcoin, removing the hardware wallet risk, multi-sig complication, and can do with that creating a taxable event and get access to tradify rates instead of the expense of Bitcoin-backed loans, yeah, I'd probably take that trade.

579
00:37:42,642 --> 00:37:43,922
Yeah, I know, right, Yukon?

580
00:37:44,222 --> 00:37:45,302
You can see where their head's at.

581
00:37:45,582 --> 00:37:48,882
I think it makes sense if you're someone looking to add Bitcoin to a dollar-denominated portfolio.

582
00:37:49,662 --> 00:37:50,422
Yes, right.

583
00:37:50,582 --> 00:37:52,382
That's what they ultimately want to exit in is dollars.

584
00:37:52,862 --> 00:37:53,822
Someone that doesn't see that

585
00:37:53,822 --> 00:37:55,342
as a nation state risk associated with it.

586
00:37:55,382 --> 00:37:55,642
Exactly.

587
00:37:55,862 --> 00:37:57,922
Now, that's what I've like in 20 years,

588
00:37:57,942 --> 00:37:59,142
am I going to want to take out dollars?

589
00:38:00,302 --> 00:38:01,282
Maybe at that point,

590
00:38:01,322 --> 00:38:02,902
but I'm not going to want to take out dollars now

591
00:38:02,902 --> 00:38:03,822
and use them in 20 years.

592
00:38:03,902 --> 00:38:05,322
You know, I'm going to want to keep it in Bitcoin

593
00:38:05,322 --> 00:38:05,862
in the meantime.

594
00:38:06,482 --> 00:38:07,702
So I'm right there with you.

595
00:38:07,742 --> 00:38:08,702
I think I can see where they're at,

596
00:38:08,762 --> 00:38:11,242
but they're already so cash rich.

597
00:38:12,042 --> 00:38:13,442
They don't have to worry about it.

598
00:38:14,062 --> 00:38:15,682
They literally are taken care of.

599
00:38:15,782 --> 00:38:16,602
They do not have to.

600
00:38:16,662 --> 00:38:17,502
They can afford it.

601
00:38:17,582 --> 00:38:18,262
They can afford it.

602
00:38:18,262 --> 00:38:19,462
That's truly what it is.

603
00:38:19,662 --> 00:38:20,122
Thanks, Yukon.

604
00:38:20,702 --> 00:38:22,462
Anonymous is here with a Spaceballs boost.

605
00:38:22,542 --> 00:38:25,482
We're going to have to go right to ludicrous speed.

606
00:38:25,662 --> 00:38:29,402
Plus one for the Seed Signer, in particular the one with the smart card hat,

607
00:38:29,482 --> 00:38:30,822
a.k.a. the Seed Signer shield.

608
00:38:31,262 --> 00:38:33,322
I wish I had done this from day one.

609
00:38:33,682 --> 00:38:36,642
Can send more details if you want, e.g. I had to have the hat fabricated

610
00:38:36,642 --> 00:38:38,542
from a PCB way directly to availability.

611
00:38:39,222 --> 00:38:40,182
Claude on the assist.

612
00:38:40,462 --> 00:38:43,162
You know, Anonymous, I would love more on the Seed Signer.

613
00:38:44,362 --> 00:38:47,842
Something in me, some old man aspect of me makes me a little cautious,

614
00:38:48,022 --> 00:38:49,202
but I am not opposed to learning.

615
00:38:49,202 --> 00:38:50,682
and changing my opinion.

616
00:38:50,902 --> 00:38:52,282
So I would love to know more

617
00:38:52,282 --> 00:38:54,242
because I think there does need to be

618
00:38:54,242 --> 00:38:56,082
a hardware wallet solution

619
00:38:56,082 --> 00:38:58,042
for people at every level.

620
00:38:58,622 --> 00:38:59,342
So please do.

621
00:39:00,382 --> 00:39:02,242
Nakamoto 6102 is here.

622
00:39:02,542 --> 00:39:04,362
Oh my God, this drawer is filled with brooklots.

623
00:39:04,382 --> 00:39:05,742
He says he's bullish AF.

624
00:39:05,922 --> 00:39:06,522
Thanks for the value.

625
00:39:06,622 --> 00:39:07,242
Thanks, Nakamoto.

626
00:39:07,422 --> 00:39:08,082
Appreciate you.

627
00:39:08,542 --> 00:39:09,882
Gene Bean's here with a row of ducks.

628
00:39:11,042 --> 00:39:12,562
Yay for liquid working again.

629
00:39:12,702 --> 00:39:12,982
Yeah.

630
00:39:13,442 --> 00:39:16,962
And I guess there's been a slight change

631
00:39:16,962 --> 00:39:18,562
in the missing Bitcoin.

632
00:39:18,562 --> 00:39:20,042
a little bit was sent back.

633
00:39:20,262 --> 00:39:21,242
There's something going on.

634
00:39:21,282 --> 00:39:22,062
They're talking tough.

635
00:39:22,562 --> 00:39:25,182
Either way, it does seem like sideswap IO

636
00:39:25,182 --> 00:39:26,522
or whatever it is, whatever the,

637
00:39:26,602 --> 00:39:27,962
whatever it seems like they're swapping.

638
00:39:28,422 --> 00:39:30,542
So, you know, I think their intention

639
00:39:30,542 --> 00:39:31,522
is to try to make this smooth

640
00:39:31,522 --> 00:39:32,642
because they intend to continue

641
00:39:32,642 --> 00:39:34,022
to use the liquid network for themselves.

642
00:39:34,842 --> 00:39:36,482
It's interesting that there hasn't been

643
00:39:36,482 --> 00:39:39,362
this massive depegging event.

644
00:39:40,302 --> 00:39:41,162
It's really not.

645
00:39:41,422 --> 00:39:43,362
I mean, I think now it's been a couple of,

646
00:39:43,502 --> 00:39:45,042
I've made three Bitcoin worth or something.

647
00:39:45,122 --> 00:39:46,422
It's been an amount, but I mean,

648
00:39:47,062 --> 00:39:48,322
I don't even think it's been three actually.

649
00:39:48,562 --> 00:39:50,902
I don't know, but it hasn't been like this bank run.

650
00:39:51,062 --> 00:39:52,322
I guess that's what I'm trying to say.

651
00:39:52,482 --> 00:39:53,022
Thanks, Gene Bean.

652
00:39:53,322 --> 00:39:54,002
Appreciate you.

653
00:39:54,542 --> 00:39:56,882
Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee is here with 10,000 sets.

654
00:39:57,022 --> 00:39:58,722
It's over 9,000!

655
00:39:59,522 --> 00:40:01,922
Deep thoughts on a road trip are a real thing, right?

656
00:40:02,642 --> 00:40:05,762
Deep thoughts on a road trip while talking to your agent will make you broke,

657
00:40:05,842 --> 00:40:08,882
spending all your money on tokens, but at least you can capture your ideas

658
00:40:08,882 --> 00:40:10,922
and you can move more quickly from ideas to development.

659
00:40:11,122 --> 00:40:12,002
Stay safe on the road, Chris.

660
00:40:12,542 --> 00:40:16,822
I have to admit, a couple of times I've tried this and it is very, very useful.

661
00:40:17,602 --> 00:40:18,322
Very useful.

662
00:40:18,322 --> 00:40:21,722
I think a good voice back and forth with these agents is going to be important.

663
00:40:22,142 --> 00:40:22,662
I really do.

664
00:40:23,122 --> 00:40:24,342
Thanks, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee.

665
00:40:24,442 --> 00:40:25,142
Appreciate you.

666
00:40:25,602 --> 00:40:27,282
Hey, Kiwi Bitcoin guides here.

667
00:40:27,422 --> 00:40:30,142
4,567 satoshis.

668
00:40:31,402 --> 00:40:32,402
Another great show, Chris.

669
00:40:32,622 --> 00:40:33,742
Thanks for keeping it rolling.

670
00:40:34,122 --> 00:40:35,342
It's funny what you said about Umbral.

671
00:40:35,442 --> 00:40:39,622
Now that I run two nodes on Linux without any package support, I'm kind of addicted to it

672
00:40:39,622 --> 00:40:41,722
and wouldn't want to run a node any other way.

673
00:40:42,082 --> 00:40:45,282
I like knowing exactly where I'm running and being in control of the updates myself.

674
00:40:45,282 --> 00:40:51,302
The unexpected gift for me from Bitcoin was being introduced to the FOSS world, and now I'm moving my whole digital life to it.

675
00:40:51,682 --> 00:40:52,982
Oh, I love that Kiwi.

676
00:40:53,782 --> 00:40:58,562
Can I recommend you go through Linux Unplugged, back catalog, and self-hosted to get some ideas?

677
00:40:59,402 --> 00:41:03,542
You know, often, like, Jellyfin can be quite the self-hosting gateway drug.

678
00:41:04,042 --> 00:41:04,982
Enjoy and keep me posted.

679
00:41:05,962 --> 00:41:10,062
Alan N. is here with, that's probably not right, 4,447 sats.

680
00:41:10,222 --> 00:41:11,922
I feel like that's like an airplane boost.

681
00:41:12,022 --> 00:41:14,062
Yeah, I got answers, and I want some questions.

682
00:41:14,062 --> 00:41:14,842
But it's just value.

683
00:41:15,162 --> 00:41:16,022
Thank you very much.

684
00:41:16,202 --> 00:41:16,822
Appreciate it, Alan.

685
00:41:17,562 --> 00:41:19,282
Paranoid Coders here with 2,000 sats.

686
00:41:19,322 --> 00:41:20,662
Coming in hot with the booth.

687
00:41:20,722 --> 00:41:21,602
No messages, value.

688
00:41:21,682 --> 00:41:22,342
Thank you very much.

689
00:41:22,422 --> 00:41:24,062
And Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

690
00:41:24,942 --> 00:41:27,682
I think Bitcoin could be sitting at 300K in 2032,

691
00:41:27,842 --> 00:41:29,922
but it's likely getting a higher price between now and then.

692
00:41:30,042 --> 00:41:31,082
Ha, I see what you did there.

693
00:41:31,082 --> 00:41:31,422
You're right.

694
00:41:31,882 --> 00:41:35,202
It'll hit 600,000 and fall back to 300,000.

695
00:41:35,202 --> 00:41:37,602
And everybody will freak out that it's lost so much value.

696
00:41:37,742 --> 00:41:39,102
You are absolutely right, Ace.

697
00:41:39,302 --> 00:41:40,422
I can see it now.

698
00:41:40,962 --> 00:41:42,342
JPEG's here with a row of ducks.

699
00:41:43,202 --> 00:41:44,702
No message, just value.

700
00:41:44,842 --> 00:41:45,742
Thank you very much.

701
00:41:45,802 --> 00:41:46,582
Appreciate you.

702
00:41:47,062 --> 00:41:50,082
And we have user 54 here with 5,000 sats.

703
00:41:50,142 --> 00:41:51,462
The traders love the vol.

704
00:41:51,662 --> 00:41:52,722
And he says pew, pew, pew.

705
00:41:52,802 --> 00:41:53,342
Pew, pew, pew.

706
00:41:53,542 --> 00:41:55,422
Shooting sats at you through a series of tubes.

707
00:41:55,522 --> 00:41:56,382
Thank you, user 54.

708
00:41:56,582 --> 00:41:57,502
Isn't it amazing?

709
00:41:57,622 --> 00:42:00,002
It's a series of peer-to-peer tubes at that.

710
00:42:01,122 --> 00:42:04,462
North Lake Odell is here with 5,678.

711
00:42:04,662 --> 00:42:05,722
Well, I'll be dipped.

712
00:42:05,902 --> 00:42:06,662
He says boost.

713
00:42:06,802 --> 00:42:07,722
Well, thank you very much.

714
00:42:08,042 --> 00:42:08,442
Boost.

715
00:42:09,002 --> 00:42:09,702
Appreciate you.

716
00:42:10,522 --> 00:42:10,922
Sickander?

717
00:42:11,122 --> 00:42:11,382
No.

718
00:42:11,382 --> 00:42:12,942
S-I-K-A-N-D-E

719
00:42:12,942 --> 00:42:14,722
S-I-K-A-N-D-E

720
00:42:14,722 --> 00:42:15,382
S-I-K-A-N-D-E

721
00:42:15,382 --> 00:42:16,042
I bet you that's it

722
00:42:16,042 --> 00:42:18,082
is here with $20 in fiat.

723
00:42:18,262 --> 00:42:18,942
Oh my god

724
00:42:18,942 --> 00:42:20,462
this drawer is filled with fruit loops.

725
00:42:21,342 --> 00:42:23,402
Just the days left for eCash man

726
00:42:23,402 --> 00:42:26,322
just days left for the eCash main chain fork.

727
00:42:26,782 --> 00:42:28,242
The Thunder and Z-Side side chains

728
00:42:28,242 --> 00:42:29,342
should launch at the fork

729
00:42:29,342 --> 00:42:30,682
so it's going to be really interesting

730
00:42:30,682 --> 00:42:31,962
to see how everything plays out.

731
00:42:32,342 --> 00:42:33,642
Anyone interested in splitting their coins

732
00:42:33,642 --> 00:42:34,262
after the fork

733
00:42:34,262 --> 00:42:36,902
should read eCash.com slash split.

734
00:42:37,282 --> 00:42:38,582
Any chance of getting Bitcoin Dad

735
00:42:38,582 --> 00:42:40,282
or Paul Strzok back on the pod

736
00:42:40,282 --> 00:42:41,662
to talk about the eCash fork.

737
00:42:42,042 --> 00:42:42,742
Oh, that'd be fun.

738
00:42:43,322 --> 00:42:44,742
I imagine they're both very busy.

739
00:42:45,582 --> 00:42:46,162
But if I, you know,

740
00:42:46,222 --> 00:42:47,422
I would like to do bonus episodes

741
00:42:47,422 --> 00:42:47,922
with interviews

742
00:42:47,922 --> 00:42:49,402
and they would be very high on my list.

743
00:42:50,042 --> 00:42:59,734
Thank you everybody who boosted the show including those of you who boosted below the 2000s at cutoff and those of you who streamed We had 45 of you No that not right No 19

744
00:42:59,854 --> 00:43:00,134
There you go.

745
00:43:00,134 --> 00:43:00,454
That's right.

746
00:43:00,534 --> 00:43:01,214
19 of you.

747
00:43:01,294 --> 00:43:02,214
Ah, still pretty good.

748
00:43:02,514 --> 00:43:06,854
19 of you stream sats and you sat streamers stacked 32,360.

749
00:43:07,574 --> 00:43:08,854
You're doing very well.

750
00:43:09,454 --> 00:43:10,154
Thank you very much.

751
00:43:10,414 --> 00:43:12,854
Now, when you total it all up, we did pretty good this episode.

752
00:43:12,854 --> 00:43:17,854
This episode stacked a grand total of 459,185 satoshis.

753
00:43:19,854 --> 00:43:27,854
This here is a value for value podcast.

754
00:43:28,094 --> 00:43:30,374
If you enjoy what I do and you give value out of it,

755
00:43:30,554 --> 00:43:31,734
helps make sense of the world,

756
00:43:31,814 --> 00:43:34,774
you can send me a boost at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com.

757
00:43:34,774 --> 00:43:37,774
And don't let them tell you people don't use their sats for anything.

758
00:43:38,094 --> 00:43:39,774
Don't let them tell you lightning doesn't work

759
00:43:39,774 --> 00:43:43,674
because every single episode is proof that is not true.

760
00:43:44,014 --> 00:43:47,854
No ads, just powered by community and the sats that you contribute.

761
00:43:47,854 --> 00:43:56,254
You can also become a member over at jupiter.party, and then you get special access to Linux Unplugged and launch, and you get a free member boost.

762
00:43:56,434 --> 00:43:58,854
There's also, you can become a member via SATs on Fountain.

763
00:43:59,174 --> 00:44:01,894
Still kind of an experimental system, but it's pretty darn cool.

764
00:44:02,134 --> 00:44:03,514
So that's available as well.

765
00:44:09,974 --> 00:44:11,454
Well, surprise, surprise.

766
00:44:11,454 --> 00:44:18,094
The banks are reacting like jerks to people deploying their own personal agents to help them sort out their finances.

767
00:44:18,774 --> 00:44:24,514
And it just reminds us that holding your own Bitcoin is a level of freedom that is easy to take for granted.

768
00:44:24,834 --> 00:44:27,434
You're the boss of your property, as it should be.

769
00:44:27,974 --> 00:44:34,674
And it's funny because, like, as soon as agents started getting popular, you saw projects like AlbiHub trying to make it easier to integrate.

770
00:44:34,994 --> 00:44:38,514
You saw a lot of crypto projects trying to make it easier to integrate with agents.

771
00:44:38,974 --> 00:44:40,034
Not the banks.

772
00:44:40,614 --> 00:44:44,814
They love to remind us that once they've got your money, it's their money,

773
00:44:44,914 --> 00:44:46,994
and you can get access to it if they let you.

774
00:44:47,394 --> 00:44:50,654
But don't you dare do anything that they don't approve of ahead of time.

775
00:44:50,914 --> 00:44:54,334
So you can imagine how some of these banks are responding to people connecting agents.

776
00:44:54,994 --> 00:44:57,214
They are completely being reasonable,

777
00:44:57,214 --> 00:45:00,754
and they're looking forward to how customers want to use this

778
00:45:00,754 --> 00:45:02,874
and creating safe mechanisms to make it possible.

779
00:45:03,714 --> 00:45:05,114
No, they're not.

780
00:45:05,754 --> 00:45:08,094
They're throwing a hissy fit and a bunch of FUD.

781
00:45:08,094 --> 00:45:13,894
A new report is highlighting how hard it could become to keep your money safe.

782
00:45:14,394 --> 00:45:24,074
Axios says major U.S. banks are detecting what they believe is unauthorized actions by third-party AI agents operating inside customer accounts.

783
00:45:24,274 --> 00:45:27,534
Now, of course, the positioning of this is pretty scary.

784
00:45:27,914 --> 00:45:33,854
But the majority of this is customers that are connecting their AI agents to a service called Plaid, or Plaid.

785
00:45:33,854 --> 00:45:36,854
and that is sort of an intermediary middleman

786
00:45:36,854 --> 00:45:38,194
that does read-only access

787
00:45:38,194 --> 00:45:41,214
via a ridiculous system that they had to come up with

788
00:45:41,214 --> 00:45:43,214
because the banks never provided a system for this.

789
00:45:43,474 --> 00:45:45,054
Now, you can imagine

790
00:45:45,054 --> 00:45:47,754
there's probably a few rogue AI agents out there

791
00:45:47,754 --> 00:45:48,734
that are knocking on doors,

792
00:45:49,254 --> 00:45:50,754
but I would be willing to bet,

793
00:45:50,894 --> 00:45:51,314
to bet?

794
00:45:51,454 --> 00:45:54,314
I would be willing to bet some serious Satoshis

795
00:45:54,314 --> 00:45:56,274
that that is the vast minority

796
00:45:56,274 --> 00:45:58,094
and the vast majority

797
00:45:58,094 --> 00:46:00,754
are people that just got themselves a Muse account

798
00:46:00,754 --> 00:46:02,774
or a GrokBot or a Dot

799
00:46:02,774 --> 00:46:07,154
and all of them have connectors for plaid in there.

800
00:46:07,554 --> 00:46:08,454
All of them.

801
00:46:08,574 --> 00:46:10,634
So yeah, that's what people are doing here.

802
00:46:10,674 --> 00:46:12,294
But the banks, that's not how they handle it

803
00:46:12,294 --> 00:46:13,674
and that's not how they spin it.

804
00:46:13,674 --> 00:46:16,214
Actions by third-party AI agents

805
00:46:16,214 --> 00:46:18,614
operating inside customer accounts.

806
00:46:19,114 --> 00:46:20,654
Some of these agents appear to have tried

807
00:46:20,654 --> 00:46:23,514
to act independent of user instructions.

808
00:46:24,054 --> 00:46:26,314
Connor Leahy is an expert on AI safety

809
00:46:26,314 --> 00:46:29,274
and the US Executive Director for Control AI

810
00:46:29,274 --> 00:46:31,874
and can hopefully give us some insight on this.

811
00:46:31,874 --> 00:46:33,114
Good morning and welcome.

812
00:46:33,454 --> 00:46:39,054
Hope our viewers understand what these AI agents were instructed to do and how that

813
00:46:39,054 --> 00:46:40,674
differed from what they actually did.

814
00:46:41,494 --> 00:46:45,414
Well, I think it's very important to understand is that in the modern world of AI, we're not

815
00:46:45,414 --> 00:46:47,194
really talking about chatbots anymore.

816
00:46:47,314 --> 00:46:48,594
We're talking about agents.

817
00:46:48,914 --> 00:46:51,954
These are systems that can take actions in the real world.

818
00:46:52,354 --> 00:46:54,134
They can access your bank account.

819
00:46:54,254 --> 00:46:55,574
They can do tasks for you.

820
00:46:55,674 --> 00:46:57,314
And many, many people are using these.

821
00:46:57,614 --> 00:46:57,794
Yeah.

822
00:46:57,894 --> 00:46:59,414
Picture an app on your phone.

823
00:46:59,494 --> 00:47:00,414
It's a lot like that.

824
00:47:00,414 --> 00:47:08,894
In this instance, it seems that in most circumstances, these AI agents were probably given access to the bank accounts by their users.

825
00:47:08,894 --> 00:47:16,714
But, and this is very important, it's A, not always clear that we can separate between truly authorized access or not.

826
00:47:17,054 --> 00:47:20,354
That's because of the architecture, because the banks never set this up properly.

827
00:47:20,354 --> 00:47:30,634
So then you had a system like Plaid come in that does it through all kinds of whack-a-ma-me means, either API or just through the online banking web lock-in, which is how they have to get into my banks.

828
00:47:31,254 --> 00:47:34,994
That's why they can't tell because they refuse to play along for so many years.

829
00:47:35,134 --> 00:47:38,534
And now that bill is coming due because they're old and they're slow.

830
00:47:38,534 --> 00:47:43,754
It's not always clear that we can separate between truly authorized access or not.

831
00:47:44,194 --> 00:47:49,154
And B, often these agents will take actions that the humans did not intend.

832
00:47:49,154 --> 00:48:05,874
I wish, I wish. I got so screwed by fold. I got so screwed because of ACH delays. Now, this is my rough understanding of the situation. My wife has the full understanding, so this may not be the entire picture.

833
00:48:05,874 --> 00:48:12,934
My rough understanding is an ACH transfer was delayed for some reason because ACH is crap.

834
00:48:13,214 --> 00:48:21,034
I used to work at the banks when ACH was still done by spreadsheets over FTP dial-up, dialed up to a server and transferred it.

835
00:48:21,694 --> 00:48:24,494
So ACH is a really, really old system.

836
00:48:24,854 --> 00:48:27,754
And for whatever reason this time, it didn't land.

837
00:48:27,754 --> 00:48:43,454
And for whatever reason, Fold still covered our bills, even though we didn't have the money in the account, which seems like a good thing, except for I had agents in here managing this and I knew what was coming due.

838
00:48:43,534 --> 00:48:44,534
I had it all figured out.

839
00:48:44,734 --> 00:48:46,574
So we double paid.

840
00:48:46,874 --> 00:48:53,914
We paid the bill directly from our checking account, even though we'd already sent the money via ACH.

841
00:48:54,674 --> 00:49:03,994
And so then because this had happened, our account went into some kind of hold and review status and no transactions could clear, even though we had transferred the money.

842
00:49:04,274 --> 00:49:06,294
No bills would clear for a while.

843
00:49:06,294 --> 00:49:10,994
And then they had to figure out the money they spent to take from the ACH transfer that we'd put in there.

844
00:49:11,654 --> 00:49:14,114
And so it is effectively almost three weeks.

845
00:49:14,254 --> 00:49:15,494
I couldn't use my fold account.

846
00:49:16,114 --> 00:49:17,174
It was a nightmare.

847
00:49:17,174 --> 00:49:27,114
And the only thing that prevented me from going default on my car payment or on a credit card bill or whatever it might have been.

848
00:49:27,374 --> 00:49:28,114
Oh, yeah.

849
00:49:28,214 --> 00:49:28,474
Oh, yeah.

850
00:49:28,494 --> 00:49:29,114
Of course.

851
00:49:29,634 --> 00:49:30,374
Of course.

852
00:49:30,634 --> 00:49:32,714
The insurance that we pay twice a year was due.

853
00:49:32,974 --> 00:49:33,234
Right.

854
00:49:33,374 --> 00:49:33,994
Of course.

855
00:49:34,194 --> 00:49:35,274
Our insurance was due.

856
00:49:35,794 --> 00:49:38,774
And, you know, that was set up forever ago.

857
00:49:39,654 --> 00:49:43,274
I would have never have caught that if I didn't have something helping me manage all of this.

858
00:49:43,794 --> 00:49:44,914
And it was a nightmare.

859
00:49:45,154 --> 00:49:46,194
It was a nightmare.

860
00:49:46,194 --> 00:49:51,174
And without the agents, we would be in financial ruins potentially because of what Fold did to us.

861
00:49:51,774 --> 00:49:52,294
It was bad.

862
00:49:53,134 --> 00:49:57,954
And so to watch this and hear them talk like this is so immensely frustrating.

863
00:49:58,334 --> 00:50:02,994
And as a Bitcoiner, you just look at this and think, these guys are always going to behave like this.

864
00:50:03,394 --> 00:50:08,474
And then they throw the FUD around that you don't know what they're doing, that they might be taking actions you didn't want them to take.

865
00:50:08,594 --> 00:50:12,594
I wish, I wish they would do that.

866
00:50:12,894 --> 00:50:13,654
I wish.

867
00:50:14,074 --> 00:50:16,874
No, no, you have to hold their hand on every little thing.

868
00:50:17,294 --> 00:50:20,014
They only want, first of all, they only get read access through Plaid.

869
00:50:20,734 --> 00:50:23,054
And if you want to go further than that, you have to have a bank that has an API

870
00:50:23,054 --> 00:50:25,494
and an MCP, if you're lucky, like Mercury.

871
00:50:25,974 --> 00:50:27,054
Most banks don't.

872
00:50:27,134 --> 00:50:30,254
And even then, if they have an official API with an API token

873
00:50:30,254 --> 00:50:33,214
that is scoped to limited access,

874
00:50:33,514 --> 00:50:36,374
they still are so careful.

875
00:50:36,774 --> 00:50:37,914
It is frustrating.

876
00:50:38,334 --> 00:50:41,934
It takes so long, especially if you're working with a frontier model.

877
00:50:41,934 --> 00:50:45,074
If you're working with a Chinese model, sometimes they just will get it done.

878
00:50:45,474 --> 00:50:47,894
So this whole thing is really just ridiculous.

879
00:50:48,094 --> 00:50:49,774
And I don't need to go on about it.

880
00:50:49,994 --> 00:50:53,534
I think I've made my point that the banks are never going to let you access the money

881
00:50:53,534 --> 00:50:54,574
the way you want to.

882
00:50:54,754 --> 00:50:57,254
And they're going to make a stink about some of these agents.

883
00:50:57,314 --> 00:51:00,974
And there's going to be a separation in services of banks that support the stuff and banks

884
00:51:00,974 --> 00:51:01,434
that don't.

885
00:51:01,774 --> 00:51:04,174
But let's move on to quantum FUD.

886
00:51:04,534 --> 00:51:10,254
Because like the lump on my neck that just won't go away, quantum FUD continues to be

887
00:51:10,254 --> 00:51:21,385
a large part of the online discourse week after week It seems like it anchored by one claim I made mention of this earlier and that is that Bitcoin is hard to change

888
00:51:22,025 --> 00:51:24,085
And this is a core point that people bring up

889
00:51:24,085 --> 00:51:24,965
over and over again.

890
00:51:25,085 --> 00:51:26,645
Kost's chief of security, James Lopp,

891
00:51:26,905 --> 00:51:28,465
he just said that recently this week.

892
00:51:28,585 --> 00:51:30,785
Where is quantum computing actually at today?

893
00:51:30,785 --> 00:51:34,245
And how far is it from being able to steal someone's Bitcoin?

894
00:51:35,345 --> 00:51:36,565
Yeah, it's always fun to see people

895
00:51:36,565 --> 00:51:38,865
throw around these numbers because first of all,

896
00:51:39,025 --> 00:51:41,005
one qubit is not equal to one qubit.

897
00:51:41,005 --> 00:51:42,585
There's different types of qubits.

898
00:51:42,865 --> 00:51:43,765
There's physical qubits.

899
00:51:43,925 --> 00:51:45,005
There's logical qubits.

900
00:51:45,265 --> 00:51:49,425
And then there's the complexity of all the algorithms that these qubits are actually running.

901
00:51:49,925 --> 00:51:56,125
And that's like one of the many different things that is a constantly moving variable in the quantum research space.

902
00:51:56,125 --> 00:52:09,245
But to sum it up, we are orders of magnitude away from a real usable quantum computer that can crack the elliptic curve algorithm that is used to secure your Bitcoin.

903
00:52:09,245 --> 00:52:14,765
And do you, I mean, could you even put it on a timeline for when it becomes a real threat?

904
00:52:15,405 --> 00:52:17,965
This is the trillion dollar question.

905
00:52:18,605 --> 00:52:25,325
Because we're orders of magnitude away, it means we have to have multiple massive breakthroughs.

906
00:52:25,325 --> 00:52:32,705
But as anyone who's been paying attention to the technology space, now AI is having multiple breakthroughs.

907
00:52:32,705 --> 00:52:42,765
And the crazy thing about AI breakthroughs is that they tend to percolate throughout the entire technology ecosystem and result in breakthroughs in other industries.

908
00:52:43,345 --> 00:52:45,825
So this is one thing people are keeping their eyes on.

909
00:52:46,085 --> 00:52:49,085
I still don't think it's going to happen any time in the next few years.

910
00:52:49,085 --> 00:52:54,525
I'm still hopeful that we have at least a decade or more, because if we have less than a decade, we're behind.

911
00:52:54,785 --> 00:52:57,785
And that's basically why I've been talking about quantum for several years.

912
00:52:57,785 --> 00:53:05,405
Not because I think that it's about to break everything, but because, as we all know, Bitcoin is very, very difficult to change.

913
00:53:06,085 --> 00:53:08,725
Very, very difficult to change, he says.

914
00:53:08,925 --> 00:53:11,065
And I agree and I disagree.

915
00:53:11,665 --> 00:53:14,465
It's hard to change consensus for bad ideas.

916
00:53:14,605 --> 00:53:15,285
That is true.

917
00:53:15,405 --> 00:53:17,485
It's very, very hard to change for bad ideas.

918
00:53:18,185 --> 00:53:23,505
And it is true that even good ideas are difficult to change in a decentralized open source project.

919
00:53:23,505 --> 00:53:31,305
but bitcoin isn't like some sort of rock it's made up of humans of individuals who have followed

920
00:53:31,305 --> 00:53:35,145
their incentives since the beginning of the bitcoin network it's honestly one of the most

921
00:53:35,145 --> 00:53:40,985
brilliant and resilient things about bitcoin is that everyone is just following their incentives

922
00:53:40,985 --> 00:53:48,385
the users the miners the operators the etf holders that's the core human behavior that's led to the

923
00:53:48,385 --> 00:53:52,905
network success so far that's the core of it right there and that's part of the network effect

924
00:53:53,345 --> 00:53:55,865
It's one of the areas, actually, Michael Saylor and I agree.

925
00:53:56,745 --> 00:53:58,925
Incentives will line up when the time is right.

926
00:53:59,805 --> 00:54:01,405
People don't want to lose their Bitcoin.

927
00:54:02,105 --> 00:54:06,465
He was just up on stage this week, and I was asked about this.

928
00:54:06,545 --> 00:54:07,525
And so I'm going to play this clip.

929
00:54:07,885 --> 00:54:08,865
I didn't put this together.

930
00:54:08,865 --> 00:54:10,905
I think maybe somebody's clanker put this together.

931
00:54:11,565 --> 00:54:15,865
But it's a clip of Saylor answering this question, and I tend to agree with most of it.

932
00:54:16,185 --> 00:54:21,425
And then what will follow him is several clips of quantum researchers and developers

933
00:54:21,425 --> 00:54:25,645
and their current thoughts on the state of Bitcoin and the quantum leap.

934
00:54:25,645 --> 00:54:30,745
We only have a quick second, but I have to ask you, because it's obviously a big issue just in general,

935
00:54:30,925 --> 00:54:32,425
not just AI, but also quantum.

936
00:54:32,905 --> 00:54:36,985
I noticed that you did not mention as a potential headwind quantum

937
00:54:36,985 --> 00:54:41,765
and what quantum is doing in terms of cryptography and security risk.

938
00:54:42,265 --> 00:54:46,105
Do you have a, you know, particularly in the last week or two in terms of developments,

939
00:54:46,705 --> 00:54:50,965
do you continue to sort of see this as a long-term, medium-term, no-term,

940
00:54:50,965 --> 00:54:55,405
challenge to the Bitcoin system. Obviously, there's going to be a coordination question as to how do

941
00:54:55,405 --> 00:55:00,365
you make your Bitcoin quantum proof? How do you get your mind around?

942
00:55:00,845 --> 00:55:04,205
I mean, the short answer to Bitcoin security is there's a hundred things people have worried

943
00:55:04,205 --> 00:55:10,585
about over the last 20 years, and we ticked them all off. They've all been overcome. The latest one

944
00:55:10,585 --> 00:55:15,905
is quantum concern. There is no quantum computer. There is no consensus that there's a quantum

945
00:55:15,905 --> 00:55:21,545
computer. When there is a quantum threat and it forms, the consensus will form in the world and

946
00:55:21,545 --> 00:55:27,325
every bank, every big tech company, every software company and all the crypto networks and digital

947
00:55:27,325 --> 00:55:33,685
assets and every government will all upgrade to post-quantum resistant cryptography. The Bitcoin

948
00:55:33,685 --> 00:55:39,345
network is just a bunch of nodes, a bunch of software running on computers and phones. And

949
00:55:39,345 --> 00:55:45,285
at the point that there's consensus on a quantum threat, we will upgrade the software. It's probably

950
00:55:45,285 --> 00:55:46,605
a 90-day upgrade.

951
00:55:46,885 --> 00:55:52,645
The reason we don't upgrade the software now is because quantum-resistant cryptographic

952
00:55:52,645 --> 00:55:57,385
libraries are actually much more complicated with other attack surfaces.

953
00:55:58,105 --> 00:56:01,425
And the actual threat in the industry right now isn't quantum.

954
00:56:01,545 --> 00:56:04,525
The actual threat, the real threat, is AI hacking.

955
00:56:05,125 --> 00:56:11,025
So if you take a frontier model, the one thing you would love to have is a super complicated

956
00:56:11,025 --> 00:56:13,225
Rube Goldberg device piece of software,

957
00:56:13,225 --> 00:56:15,425
and you would like to attack it

958
00:56:15,425 --> 00:56:17,565
with the latest frontier model,

959
00:56:17,745 --> 00:56:18,825
find a glitch in it,

960
00:56:18,825 --> 00:56:19,965
and then exploit the glitch.

961
00:56:20,745 --> 00:56:25,405
And so the danger is upgrading software

962
00:56:25,405 --> 00:56:27,745
to be too complicated too quickly

963
00:56:27,745 --> 00:56:29,885
before the threat manifests itself.

964
00:56:30,365 --> 00:56:32,625
It's like it's an iatrogenic intervention.

965
00:56:32,805 --> 00:56:33,425
That's the danger.

966
00:56:34,105 --> 00:56:37,225
So the rational thing for the network to do

967
00:56:37,225 --> 00:56:42,325
is wait and develop the quantum, post-quantum libraries.

968
00:56:42,405 --> 00:56:44,345
But that's happening at Microsoft and Google

969
00:56:44,345 --> 00:56:46,805
and the US government, NSA, et cetera.

970
00:56:47,205 --> 00:56:48,205
Let those develop.

971
00:56:48,325 --> 00:56:49,245
They keep improving.

972
00:56:49,405 --> 00:56:50,665
They're improving exponentially.

973
00:56:51,485 --> 00:56:53,525
Wait until there is a quantum computer.

974
00:56:53,525 --> 00:56:56,345
There might be a threat that forms in five or 10 years.

975
00:56:56,445 --> 00:56:57,525
It might never come.

976
00:56:57,665 --> 00:57:01,085
It might come sooner, might come in 30 years.

977
00:57:01,505 --> 00:57:04,345
When and if it comes, you upgrade the software.

978
00:57:04,345 --> 00:57:11,385
but you don't vaccinate your kid at age one against some disease they might get at age 67.

979
00:57:12,525 --> 00:57:18,345
Because if you do that 100 times and you've got a 1% mortality rate,

980
00:57:18,385 --> 00:57:21,845
you're going to kill the kid by protecting them against something that never happened,

981
00:57:21,905 --> 00:57:23,325
that they're not going to live to see happen.

982
00:57:23,445 --> 00:57:26,825
And so we view quantum resistance the same way.

983
00:57:26,865 --> 00:57:27,685
It's a vaccine.

984
00:57:28,365 --> 00:57:29,465
We've developed it.

985
00:57:29,465 --> 00:57:38,625
But the threat's evolving and the cure is getting better and we'll wait until we need it before we take it.

986
00:57:38,865 --> 00:57:42,485
Great. Any future work we should be expecting to see from you? Some research?

987
00:57:43,005 --> 00:57:51,245
Yeah, I mean, right now we're looking at what we need to do to be able to transition to post-quantum signature schemes.

988
00:57:52,045 --> 00:57:57,885
There's a lot of new research around that as well, doing NPC for lattice-based signatures, for example.

989
00:57:57,885 --> 00:58:01,705
threshold decryption for lattice-based encryption,

990
00:58:02,545 --> 00:58:06,105
how far can you push MPC for hash-based signature schemes.

991
00:58:06,965 --> 00:58:10,785
So, you know, we're applying it in the cryptocurrency space,

992
00:58:10,865 --> 00:58:13,485
in the blockchain space, but I think it's relevant,

993
00:58:13,765 --> 00:58:15,665
you know, it's relevant cryptography in general.

994
00:58:16,405 --> 00:58:19,585
That's where I'm focusing my time right now.

995
00:58:20,305 --> 00:58:22,565
In the absence of that information,

996
00:58:23,465 --> 00:58:26,785
what would you recommend or how do you kind of think about this

997
00:58:26,785 --> 00:58:29,405
as just like an everyday user of technology?

998
00:58:29,565 --> 00:58:30,965
Like, how does this impact

999
00:58:30,965 --> 00:58:32,605
how you interact with technology, if at all?

1000
00:58:32,765 --> 00:58:34,105
So nothing has changed.

1001
00:58:34,805 --> 00:58:37,925
The world today is the same as the world a week ago,

1002
00:58:38,145 --> 00:58:39,205
the world a year ago.

1003
00:58:39,305 --> 00:58:39,965
Nothing has changed.

1004
00:58:40,025 --> 00:58:42,505
Until we learn something new

1005
00:58:42,505 --> 00:58:44,985
about our standard cryptographic systems,

1006
00:58:45,525 --> 00:58:46,345
nothing has changed.

1007
00:58:46,485 --> 00:58:48,625
Keep using the systems as they are.

1008
00:58:49,205 --> 00:58:50,545
When we learn something new,

1009
00:58:50,845 --> 00:58:52,205
either we'll have more confidence

1010
00:58:52,205 --> 00:58:53,505
or we'll have to react.

1011
00:58:53,945 --> 00:58:55,625
But until we have more information,

1012
00:58:55,625 --> 00:59:02,005
nothing has changed so please don't panic you know keep calm yeah to put it another way you know the

1013
00:59:02,005 --> 00:59:08,225
the the reaction yesterday and continuing today is not a reaction to new information

1014
00:59:08,225 --> 00:59:16,645
what the reaction is maybe an indirect reaction to the dump of mathematical results from open ai

1015
00:59:16,645 --> 00:59:22,665
a very indirect kind of information about ai's progress which i again is it was amazing but i

1016
00:59:22,665 --> 00:59:27,905
don't think is a surprise. It's like all Silicon Valley's been talking about for years now. But

1017
00:59:27,905 --> 00:59:43,077
it not a specific reaction to a specific piece of information about cryptography We didn learn that elliptic curves are vulnerable in a way that they weren before We didn learn that any specific cryptographic assumptions have less security than they did before

1018
00:59:43,877 --> 00:59:52,417
Maybe to give people a little bit more confidence also, we have a lot of different types of assumptions that we use to build public key cryptography.

1019
00:59:52,417 --> 00:59:54,537
It's not just elliptic curves or lattices.

1020
00:59:54,737 --> 00:59:59,217
We have isogenies and code-based systems and multivariate polynomial-based systems.

1021
00:59:59,657 --> 01:00:01,297
There are many hash-based signatures.

1022
01:00:01,297 --> 01:00:06,057
there are many other types of assumptions that we can build public key cryptography from.

1023
01:00:06,737 --> 01:00:08,777
So if we need to react, we can react.

1024
01:00:08,957 --> 01:00:12,777
Of course, everything takes time, but we sort of know where to go.

1025
01:00:13,197 --> 01:00:19,917
And so even if the worst of the worst happens, there are still plenty of ways for us to recover.

1026
01:00:20,917 --> 01:00:26,177
So it seems to me like the reality is people in the know are thinking about it.

1027
01:00:26,177 --> 01:00:27,217
They're working on it.

1028
01:00:27,217 --> 01:00:29,737
and they have no doubt that when the time comes,

1029
01:00:29,857 --> 01:00:31,497
the Bitcoin network will make the adjustments

1030
01:00:31,497 --> 01:00:32,797
it needs to make.

1031
01:00:33,537 --> 01:00:35,717
The fact that we don't have to wait for the banks

1032
01:00:35,717 --> 01:00:38,817
or CEOs or governments to sort this out

1033
01:00:38,817 --> 01:00:41,397
is going to be a massive advantage for Bitcoiners

1034
01:00:41,397 --> 01:00:43,697
and we're so focused on this one little problem.

1035
01:00:44,097 --> 01:00:46,657
We are gonna be in such a better position

1036
01:00:46,657 --> 01:00:48,577
than just about every institution

1037
01:00:48,577 --> 01:00:49,837
that has to deal with this.

1038
01:00:50,577 --> 01:00:53,197
So I think maybe just to wrap us up,

1039
01:00:53,657 --> 01:00:55,517
I wanna end on a clip that reminds us

1040
01:00:55,517 --> 01:00:58,197
how important an actual store of value is.

1041
01:00:58,317 --> 01:01:00,617
Because Chamath did it, others do it.

1042
01:01:00,677 --> 01:01:02,977
They just hand-waved the store of value

1043
01:01:02,977 --> 01:01:06,477
as if it doesn't matter, as if it's nothing.

1044
01:01:07,057 --> 01:01:08,917
But I think it's the exact opposite.

1045
01:01:09,117 --> 01:01:11,737
I think it's a product with universal market fit.

1046
01:01:12,297 --> 01:01:15,597
And Jack wrapped up pretty well on his podcast this week.

1047
01:01:16,037 --> 01:01:17,877
I thought he ended on a nice strong note

1048
01:01:17,877 --> 01:01:19,357
and put this into perspective.

1049
01:01:19,357 --> 01:01:21,857
You know, I've always considered government debt

1050
01:01:21,857 --> 01:01:23,717
as a form of time travel.

1051
01:01:23,717 --> 01:01:27,137
They borrow from our future without our consent.

1052
01:01:27,317 --> 01:01:29,057
They literally travel to the future

1053
01:01:29,057 --> 01:01:33,277
and take our time, energy, effort, labor.

1054
01:01:33,397 --> 01:01:35,497
The fact that generations before us

1055
01:01:35,497 --> 01:01:39,137
were able to work five, six, seven years to own a home

1056
01:01:39,137 --> 01:01:43,477
and now we're having to work 50, 60 years to own a home,

1057
01:01:43,597 --> 01:01:45,077
like literally own it, not a mortgage,

1058
01:01:45,257 --> 01:01:46,617
pay it off, your property.

1059
01:01:47,397 --> 01:01:49,257
That's theft of time.

1060
01:01:49,337 --> 01:01:50,137
That's time travel.

1061
01:01:50,217 --> 01:01:51,577
That's entering our future,

1062
01:01:51,577 --> 01:01:55,157
grabbing our effort, our labor, our energy,

1063
01:01:55,857 --> 01:01:57,577
and spending it and wasting it today

1064
01:01:57,577 --> 01:01:59,077
without our consent.

1065
01:01:59,557 --> 01:02:00,357
That's the other thing.

1066
01:02:00,457 --> 01:02:01,257
On a gold standard,

1067
01:02:01,357 --> 01:02:03,937
you used to have to deposit the gold to the government

1068
01:02:03,937 --> 01:02:06,537
if they needed to defend themselves for war

1069
01:02:06,537 --> 01:02:09,297
or they needed help financing something.

1070
01:02:09,457 --> 01:02:12,177
And if I didn't consent to that, I kept my gold.

1071
01:02:12,597 --> 01:02:13,857
And that was such a fair system.

1072
01:02:13,857 --> 01:02:15,657
If we really needed to go to war

1073
01:02:15,657 --> 01:02:17,817
and we really needed to defend ourselves,

1074
01:02:18,097 --> 01:02:20,217
well, then the people would surely go into their savings

1075
01:02:20,217 --> 01:02:21,517
and give a little bit of gold

1076
01:02:21,517 --> 01:02:23,777
to make sure that we as a country

1077
01:02:23,777 --> 01:02:24,857
were doing what we needed to do.

1078
01:02:24,917 --> 01:02:26,497
But if we didn't actually need to,

1079
01:02:26,737 --> 01:02:29,477
you wouldn't get the financing to be able to afford it

1080
01:02:29,477 --> 01:02:31,337
because everyone had to consent.

1081
01:02:31,997 --> 01:02:34,377
Fiat money printing is a violation

1082
01:02:34,377 --> 01:02:36,857
of our property rights and our dignity

1083
01:02:36,857 --> 01:02:38,817
because it's without our consent.

1084
01:02:39,577 --> 01:02:42,057
It is literally theft and abuse.

1085
01:02:42,857 --> 01:02:46,017
And so my message to whoever's willing to listen is,

1086
01:02:46,017 --> 01:02:50,697
listen, there are two incredibly powerful expressions,

1087
01:02:50,697 --> 01:02:58,397
voice and exit. Okay. When voice is no longer sufficient, there's only one action left and

1088
01:02:58,397 --> 01:03:05,577
that's exit. And so you want to protest? I've been protesting for 14 years now by Bitcoin.

1089
01:03:06,077 --> 01:03:11,317
It's not violent. I don't need anyone's permission. I don't need a specific politician

1090
01:03:11,317 --> 01:03:18,137
or political agenda. Okay. And put the moral code. This is from my speech in Prague a few years ago,

1091
01:03:18,137 --> 01:03:24,577
But before Bitcoin is computer code or a network, I think it's moral code.

1092
01:03:24,917 --> 01:03:32,657
And that moral code is thou shall not inflate, thou shall not confiscate, thou shall not counterfeit, and thou shall not censor.

1093
01:03:34,097 --> 01:03:35,637
Thou shall treat everyone equally.

1094
01:03:37,177 --> 01:03:39,197
Everyone is included.

1095
01:03:39,917 --> 01:03:41,437
Everyone is treated equally.

1096
01:03:42,017 --> 01:03:43,937
There's a freedom in coming and going.

1097
01:03:44,817 --> 01:03:46,217
You cannot censor.

1098
01:03:46,397 --> 01:03:47,417
You cannot counterfeit.

1099
01:03:47,417 --> 01:03:54,337
you cannot confiscate, you cannot inflate, and you cannot steal. It is moral code of protest.

1100
01:03:54,717 --> 01:04:01,117
It is a peaceful protest to say, you know what? I'm out. Because when voice is no longer

1101
01:04:01,117 --> 01:04:06,717
sufficient, exit is the only option we have left to protect any dignity.

1102
01:04:17,417 --> 01:04:27,997
Let's check in on the state of the network as I wrap up at block height 973,562.

1103
01:04:28,557 --> 01:04:33,097
Our U.S. price to one Bitcoin right now, 81,190.

1104
01:04:33,097 --> 01:04:37,917
That makes our sats per dollar at 1,232 satoshis to a dollar.

1105
01:04:38,397 --> 01:04:47,017
We're down 35.7 from our all-time high, which was 387 days ago, you absolute cyber hornet

1106
01:04:47,017 --> 01:04:53,317
psychopaths. The difficulty retarget date is tomorrow, as I record October 29th, with an

1107
01:04:53,317 --> 01:04:59,857
estimated, whoa, estimated difficulty change upward of 6.2%. I thought they were all switching

1108
01:04:59,857 --> 01:05:08,937
to AI. Whoa. Wow. Reachable Bitcoin nodes down a bit this week at 23,114. We're up 0.6% in the

1109
01:05:08,937 --> 01:05:17,517
last 24 hours, but down 4% since the last episode. Sats on the blockchain, or fees on the blockchain,

1110
01:05:18,317 --> 01:05:24,277
still low. One sat per V-byte. But look at that difficulty change. Isn't that something?

1111
01:05:24,697 --> 01:05:27,917
You know what I say, the state of the network is strong.

1112
01:05:27,917 --> 01:05:40,597
well if you made it this far come say hi to me in texas if you're in the austin area i'm flying

1113
01:05:40,597 --> 01:05:46,757
out next week and i'll be there i think the 6th and the 7th at texas linux fest gonna try to do a

1114
01:05:46,757 --> 01:05:51,697
little lunch on a friday i suspect maybe saturday i don't know maybe both days you know i do need to

1115
01:05:51,697 --> 01:05:53,677
eat. Also links to what I talked

1116
01:05:53,677 --> 01:05:55,697
about this week, thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1117
01:05:57,017 --> 01:05:57,797
You'll check out,

1118
01:05:58,017 --> 01:05:59,697
you'll see there's probably more stuff in there that didn't even make

1119
01:05:59,697 --> 01:06:01,597
it in the show. Do let me know

1120
01:06:01,597 --> 01:06:03,797
how I did with a boost. My goal

1121
01:06:03,797 --> 01:06:05,717
is to focus on the things that matter to

1122
01:06:05,717 --> 01:06:07,697
you. Focus on the signal, not get

1123
01:06:07,697 --> 01:06:09,417
distracted by the emotions or the politics.

1124
01:06:09,677 --> 01:06:11,557
None of that. So that way is you can

1125
01:06:11,557 --> 01:06:13,257
plan for yourselves, your friends, your families,

1126
01:06:13,577 --> 01:06:15,137
your business, whatever it might be.

1127
01:06:15,597 --> 01:06:17,297
Also, I want to know your thoughts on quantum.

1128
01:06:17,437 --> 01:06:19,597
If you think it's something we need to address sooner than

1129
01:06:19,597 --> 01:06:21,077
later just to calm people down.

1130
01:06:21,697 --> 01:06:26,157
or if the risk of addressing it sooner than later is actually more dangerous.

1131
01:06:27,437 --> 01:06:28,297
Boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com.

1132
01:06:28,357 --> 01:06:30,057
Let me know how I did over there.

1133
01:06:30,417 --> 01:06:33,817
And of course, if there's something you'd like to see me cover in a future episode,

1134
01:06:33,897 --> 01:06:34,617
you can put it there.

1135
01:06:35,017 --> 01:06:36,837
I'm not quite sure what the plan is for next week.

1136
01:06:36,877 --> 01:06:39,197
Since I am flying, I may do an early episode.

1137
01:06:39,357 --> 01:06:40,757
So keep your eye on the RSS feed.

1138
01:06:41,117 --> 01:06:43,437
That's always the best way to get an episode when it drops.

1139
01:06:43,877 --> 01:06:44,737
Thanks so much for listening.

1140
01:06:44,877 --> 01:06:48,617
And I'll see you right back here on This Week in Bitcoin next week.

1141
01:06:51,697 --> 01:07:21,677
Thank you.

1142
01:07:21,697 --> 01:07:51,677
Thank you.

1143
01:07:51,697 --> 01:07:52,197
you