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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 95.

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My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupiterBroadcasting.com.

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I just got home late last night, had a great road trip with my buddies down to Pasadena,

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California and back. And I did pick up a few Bitcoin stories and observations along the way.

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I'll share those with you later in the show, though, because first, I think we both need to

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get up to speed on the macro picture since I've been gone and where Bitcoin seems to be finding

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itself in all of this. In February, inflation rose by 0.3% month over month. And in the number,

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you're probably keeping track of 2.4% year over year. That was in line with expectations.

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NBC News Business and Data correspondent Brian Chung joins us from the big board. Brian,

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walk us through these numbers and how they compare with these previous months.

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Yeah, good morning, Joe. Good morning, Savannah. This is one of those reports that was just as

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expected. But of course, the question is, with the war in Iran, how is that going to change going

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forward? Because the numbers that we're looking at preceded the conflict happening. So again,

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what we're talking about here, as you mentioned, 2.4 percent. That's how much prices rose between

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February of this year and February of last year. As you look at the yearly rate, that's essentially

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unchanged from where we saw the last reading in January of 2.4 percent. So again, the story here

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is largely the same that, yes, we're not at that 2% target that economists say is healthy for an

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economy, but nonetheless, that is still vast improvement from the around 9% that we saw it

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peak at in the summer of 2022. It's always funny how they talk about inflation, and this data just

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came out about an hour before I sat down to record. And when they say, oh, it's up 2.4% from last

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year, well, that doesn't sound so bad. Who wants to go into the streets over that? But they never

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mentioned the accumulative effect here, right? 24.25 percent. 24.25 percent is the five-year

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accumulated inflation from February of 2021 to February of 2026 using the exact CPIU values from

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the federal government. And in my opinion, those numbers are lower than the reality for most of us.

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But the official federal numbers for the last five years, when you accumulate all of it, is 24.25%.

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So if you're someone who has been saving in a savings account or, I don't know, putting it under a mattress or you know someone who's doing that, you need to explain this to them.

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Because if they saved $100 just five years ago, I'm not saying 1985, I'm saying five years ago, that now buys $80 worth of goods.

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That $100 now buys $80 worth of goods.

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The labor they put in to earn that $100 now buys less than the day they did the work.

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That 24% isn't ancient history.

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We have to wrap our heads around this.

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It happened to every dollar you've been holding for the last five years.

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What do you think is going to happen over the next five years?

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And the dollar has been melting at 24% in five years, and it's just normal now.

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Not so bad.

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You know, it's not the healthy 2% economists want, but you know, 2.4 is not so bad.

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So it's just normal now.

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It's just totally normal now that in five years, you're going to lose 24% of your wealth.

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And during that time, Bitcoin has been gaining purchasing power against it.

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Oh, maybe it's not at $126,000 right now, but we're talking at five-year scales here.

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Bitcoin can't be printed.

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And every person who realizes the situation, they add to the network effect.

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They add to a network effect that has a fixed supply.

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So this inflation picture, it's just to me, it gets me a little kind of bullish because if this is what's going to be accepted as normal, then it's almost a mathematical certainty for Bitcoin.

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All right.

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Now, give me a little grace for playing a pop clip so early in the show here, but I think you'll understand why I'm playing it once I play it.

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And the media seems to be a bit surprised by Bitcoin's rather decent reaction to the situation with bombs dropping in Iran.

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And so I don't yet really have a take on that.

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I'm going to be getting up to speed.

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But I did want to play this clip because it talks about it a bit and sets us up for a broader macro discussion.

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Joining me now, Anthony Pompliano, founder and CEO of Professional Capital Management.

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On set, great to have you.

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So much to talk to you about.

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But of course, we are going to start with Bitcoin because it has been outperforming over the past week.

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Well, I think there's a couple of different things, right?

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One is Bitcoin is a resilient asset that is really serving as global insurance.

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And so anytime that there's chaos in the world, there's going to be people who run to Bitcoin.

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Gold also serves as that use case.

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But I think that more and more people, especially as young people get a little bit older, they get a little bit more money.

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They start to go and they buy Bitcoin in times of uncertainty.

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And I think institutions also what is misunderstood is that in the institutions, the young people 10 years ago, they're now rising to the role of the portfolio manager or the CIO.

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And so they also will start to continue to add Bitcoin into their portfolios as well.

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And I think you see Bitcoin performing pretty well given what's happening right now.

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And yet gold has not performed particularly well over the past call it week.

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Well, if you think about what's gone on over the last year or so, pretty much everyone who's going to sell Bitcoin off of the highs has pretty much already sold.

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Right. Everyone who's going to buy gold has pretty much bought.

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I actually think that's astute.

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you actually see it, at least with Bitcoin,

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we don't know with gold because it's a black box,

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but with Bitcoin, you see the on-chain data

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that the whales, they're done selling

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and they're back into buying mode.

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The institutions are buying.

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So the selling from the whales seems to have stopped.

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I just think it's interesting the inverse that's occurred.

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Going off of the highs has pretty much already sold, right?

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Everyone who's going to buy gold has pretty much bought.

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And so I think that you saw two assets that diverged

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and these two assets, they serve as a store of value.

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And I know that the gold bugs have been doing

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their victory lap for the last year.

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I like gold.

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I don't hate gold in any way, but I do think that Bitcoin is a 10x better asset in terms of it is more divisible.

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It is more mobile. It is much more resilient than gold.

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And so I think that over time, what you're going to see is you're going to see more and more capital flow into Bitcoin.

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And look at the ETFs. What took gold's ETF 15 years to do, Bitcoin has done in less than two.

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And so I think that just naturally you're seeing the rapid adoption of an asset.

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Now, it is going to be volatile, and I think people love to celebrate when Bitcoin falls.

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is down 50%. Well, if that was the bottom of the bear market is just a 50% drawdown,

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then it's the best performing bear market of all time in Bitcoin's history. And so let's see what

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happens. Interesting. Do you think then in light of that and what we're seeing with Operation Epic

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Fury, that Bitcoin is shifting gears in terms of how it's trading? Because the conversation had been

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that this is, you know, a risk on asset. It's trading as such. It's a liquidity indicator.

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It's not a store of value. Do you think that this is an inflection point?

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Well, I think there is a very, very big misunderstanding when it comes to what's happening in the global economy right now, and specifically with inflation domestically.

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If you look at inflation expectations, people have been saying that we were going to get sky high inflation because of the tariffs.

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And I was very loud about the fact that we were not going to get that.

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The tariffs were going to be deflationary.

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Now, if you look over the last year or so, what we've seen is tariffs are deflationary, deportations are deflationary, AI is deflationary, and robotics are deflationary.

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And we see this happening throughout the economy.

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And so the big risk right now is still deflation, not inflation in the U.S. economy.

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And I understand that oil has spiked in the short term and people are going to freak out about that.

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This has been going on for eight days, this Operation Epic Fury.

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And so let's say that it ends in the next two or three weeks.

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It would have been a short-term impact to oil prices.

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And the deflationary nature of what's happening in the economy is still a much, much bigger concern than a short-term oil impact.

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So he's saying if the impact on the price of oil only works out to be maybe a couple of months,

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then all of these other deflationary things, if they turn out to be true, are going to have a bigger play here.

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But then he brings up a point that I think actually should be getting more discussion.

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And I think Pomp has honed in on there is pain in the housing market right now.

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And I think what people also forget is that take housing as an example.

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The government is still saying that housing prices are growing.

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Truflation, which is a real time measurement, is saying that housing is in deflation already.

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It's down 1.5 percent over the last 12 months.

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If that is true, housing is a much bigger input into the CPI calculation than, let's say, oil or energy is at around 5 percent.

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And so I think that people, it's very easy to get attracted to the headlines and the volatile oil price.

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But again, the structural thing that we are facing is deflation because of deportations, tariffs, AI and robotics.

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Yeah, and of course, we get CPI and PCE readings this week.

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And this will be before any spike we've seen in energy prices.

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We just got those.

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We'll look at that according to your lines of thinking.

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At what point, though, if you have energy, if you have oil prices at these sustained levels, we know that funnels out into other parts of the economy.

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So at what point does that change if it changes?

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Well, if it's prolonged, right, if we end up going six, nine, 12 months with really, really high oil prices, obviously, that'll have a very big impact.

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The other thing that's pretty interesting, though, is that the U.S. dependency on oil is a percent of production.

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Right. So if you think of like how much energy do we need to consume from oil specifically in order to produce one unit of GDP, that has been going down over time.

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We're actually lower today than we were, let's say, in 2007, 2008.

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Some good research has been put out about that.

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Now, it doesn't mean that we're not dependent on it at all, but I do think that people are still caught on this idea that if oil prices go higher, then immediately we get higher consumer inflation.

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And I just don't see that happening in the economy.

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All right. So let's put it all together.

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We've got a war in Iran.

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We've got a spike, at least for now, eight-day spike in energy prices.

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We've got AI disruption concerns.

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We've got cracks in private credit.

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And we have a weaker jobs report.

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How do you invest right now?

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Buy Bitcoin.

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I mean, right?

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Okay, so I think there's one thing I caught in there, and I wonder if you noticed it too.

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They kind of blasted past it, but it is theme du jour right now.

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And it's the topic of jobs.

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It has Wall Street, quote unquote, worried.

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And I think we should just spend a little bit of time on this because it is one of the big, I don't know, B-plot narratives right now.

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Goldman Sachs says up to 300 million full-time jobs around the world could be affected by artificial intelligence.

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In a report Sunday, their economists predicted 18% of work globally could be computerized.

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According to that report, the most affected jobs would be administrative workers and lawyers.

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Less affected jobs are expected to be in physically demanding or outdoor occupations like construction and repair work.

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Oh, oh, geez. Let me check my notes here, guys. Oh, oh, yeah. Oh, gosh, my bad. That clip's from three years ago. But you'd never know it, would you? It sounds like something that could have been released this Sunday. And why is it? Why are we now two, three years into this being a nearly daily narrative?

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I went back and I collected several clips.

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I collected clips from the All In podcast.

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I collected clips from the BBC.

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I collected clips from CNBC.

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That right there was from Bloomberg.

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Of course, they were quoting Goldman Sachs.

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And I decided, you get the picture.

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I don't need to play all of them.

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You get the idea.

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I found solidly since 2022, over and over again, this narrative.

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So why is it?

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Why is this negative, awful narrative continuing?

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And I think understanding this is a good skill to have.

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It helps you separate signal from the noise.

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So let's break it down because this is going to make you a better Bitcoiner.

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Since the day ChatGPT launched, it's basically been rolling.

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And I think it really comes down to following the incentive.

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So this is actually a clip from yesterday, actually within the last 24 hours.

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And this is on the CBS Morning News.

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Welcome back.

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We all know artificial intelligence is rapidly changing workplaces around the world.

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Well, a new study from Anthropic shows white collar jobs are the most vulnerable to AI.

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Fears of an AI takeover of renewed interest in skilled trade work.

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A recent survey shows 77% of Gen Z say it's important that their future job is difficult to automate.

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CBS News Money Watch reporter Megan Cerullo joins us now in studio to explain all of this.

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Megan assured me my job is safe as it relates to AI anyway.

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We'll see if this is true as time moves on.

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So funny.

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Now, you probably caught it in there.

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That is a study released by Anthropic.

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Anthropic and other big tech companies are pumping out study after study.

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They have so much funding to do this.

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And then there's a bit maybe you don't understand.

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After they complete these studies, they don't just put a PDF on their website and then tweet about it.

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That just wouldn't really do much.

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they send them out via PR Newswire services.

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There are several of these PR Newswire, Businesswire, Globe Newswire, PR Web.

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You can usually, depending on the article and the size of your company,

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you can get an article like they would get one published for around $1,000 per press release.

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So they pay $1,000 and then say like PR Newswire alone,

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just one of these companies claims to reach 440,000 newsrooms.

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So news outlets are looking at these PR Newswires.

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like the CBS morning producers.

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These PR releases, they're like a goldmine of easy stories.

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They have everything they need.

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There's a gatekeeper, a process someone has to go through.

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Someone had to pay money to get it published, right?

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So it's not just spam and slop.

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But also the PR releases are written in a way that kind of a standard format You get an idea of the story You know who to contact There contact information And think about what that means for the producer at CBS right

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It's a matter of economics and speed.

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Now they know how to get a quote.

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And of course the company, they gave them the contact information,

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which is usually a particular marketing person.

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They've got quotes ready to go.

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Pew pew.

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Yeah, they're ready to go.

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Pew pew, we'll tell you about this.

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Pew pew.

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Yeah, here's your thoughts on that.

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Pew pew, yo.

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And then, you know, they're elegant and they're quippy

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or they're attention grabbing or whatever they need to be for the moment.

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The company has them ready to go in their pocket.

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CBS News contacts them.

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They get the quote.

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Now they got a story.

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Now they verified the information with a quote from the company.

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They're not trying to determine the motivation behind why Anthropic released a PR announcement about taking jobs.

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That's not what this story is about to them.

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This is a human interest story to them.

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It's not an analysis of how tech companies manipulate the market.

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So they don't need to take a critical look at the motivations behind why Anthropic published it.

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That's not where their heads are at.

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they need time

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they need air time to fill

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they need a story that's human interest that will get attention

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and this gets attention

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so the tech companies

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keep a steady supply of these incredible

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somewhat

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self aggrandizing stories

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and studies

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they publish them through the PR news wires

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everyone from the New York Times

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to your local paper is subscribed

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probably the

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YouTuber you listen to that does the news

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gets these PR news releases.

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But that alone does not sustain this cycle since 2022.

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For that, for that, you need a bit of what I'm going to call an economy.

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And anybody that's been to a lot of tech events,

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you know there's an economy around these tech events.

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But you can't just have a tech event economy.

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You need an evangelist or a few evangelists

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that can get themselves on TV and other places with loud microphones.

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Joining us right now is Andrew Yang.

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He's the founder and CEO of Noble Mobile, a former Democratic candidate, president and New York City's mayor.

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He's also the author of Hey, Yang, Where's My Thousand Bucks, which debuted last month.

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Good morning to you. You've got the book right here.

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We got about a million things to talk to you about AI.

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Now, I want you to listen to this with an understanding a little bit of maybe how these events work.

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Right. You're setting up an event. It's an AI event.

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You want to bring a couple of headline speakers there.

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These people, they get paid often for their parents is not always.

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But when you bring somebody to be a big speaker at your event, there's an unspoken agreement that they're also going to promote it.

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They're going to go on podcasts.

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They're going to go on TV if they can.

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They're going to post on social media.

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They attach their brand and their name to your event and they help you promote.

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It's sort of a symbiotic relationship between the speaker and the event when done, I guess what they would call right.

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And so when you bring Andrew Yang to an event, you're bringing all of that with you.

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You're not just bringing Andrew Yang to sit in a chair and listen to people speak.

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You're bringing the brand of Andrew Yang.

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And what that is, is access to media.

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Dude, last month.

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Good morning to you.

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You've got the book right here.

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We got about a million things to talk to you about AI.

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We want to talk about New York.

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We want to talk about taxes.

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Where do you want to start this morning?

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I just came from an AI conference out west and holy cow.

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They said to me that what we're going to see in the next six months outstrips what we've

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seen in the last 10 years because the see these cycles are an important part of this economy

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i mean these these events are and cycles are part of this this economy of sort of reinforcing and

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and going there and marketing to each other and talking about what you're doing and putting your

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best put forward putting a booth up having your speakers and talking about the future it's it's a

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self-feeding cycle and then you get these evangelists that spin off from those events

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and they go talk about, they go provide the information to the people.

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They talk about what their discoveries were.

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In a different context, this would be akin to Bill Gates going to a WHO conference

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and then coming on CNBC and talking about medical advice, right?

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Maybe he did learn something. He's a smart guy.

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But it's not been his entire career.

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Came from an AI conference out west and holy cow,

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they said to me that what we're going to see in the next six months

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outstrips what we've seen in the last 10 years because the rate of change is on a hockey stick

287
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and heading up. And I got to say, I'm pretty up to date on this stuff. And it blew my mind

288
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with some of the stuff I was seeing. In terms of what? What did you see?

289
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Well, there was one company that is selling autonomous coding for enterprises to big

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businesses, and their revenue is up 100 fold in the last 12 months. So if that continues,

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it's going to eat a lot of the tech budgets from major corporates that used to go to humans.

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Now, the problem is this industry changes fast. And if he's talking about the company I think he's talking about, this company has essentially forked the OpenCode project, packaged it up and sold it to enterprises. And they did grow really, really fast.

293
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However, if you go look at the token usage on OpenRouter, you can see that it essentially leveled off around mid-February when OpenClaw came out.

294
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And OpenClaw has shattered the token usage that this company, I believe he's talking about because he never names it.

295
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But I think I know which one he's talking about.

296
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OpenClaw has shattered, shattered the record that that company ever set.

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And that company has now leveled off while OpenClaw continues to climb.

298
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And what my point is, these things change and they change within five months.

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So you can't sit here comfortably and say, well, I saw this company and they just sold all these licenses to enterprises.

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So, you know, software development's over.

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That is selling autonomous coding for enterprises to big businesses.

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And their revenue is up 100 fold in the last 12 months.

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So if that continues, it's going to eat a lot of the tech budgets from major corporates that used to go to humans.

304
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The other thing that doesn't quite make sense there, right?

305
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Because let's just one more time.

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That is selling autonomous coding for enterprises.

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Now listen to this next point.

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To big businesses and their revenue is up 100 fold in the last 12 months.

309
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Their revenue is up 100 fold.

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So what do you think they're going to do?

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They're going to invest that in the company and that company is going to hire more people.

312
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They're going to hire more people as they grow.

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That's what companies do.

314
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So anyways, that aside, like there's just little bits of that kind of stuff.

315
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You just have to really stop and think about it.

316
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This is a very fast-moving industry.

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And if a company is really seeing that 100x numbers, they inevitably will hire.

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That is the second-order effect of growth like that.

319
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So if that continues, it's going to eat a lot of the tech budgets from major corporates that used to go to humans.

320
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But it sounds like another company has a lot more budget now.

321
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Seeing the employment of recent computer science graduates fall off a cliff from a lot of programs.

322
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if you rewind, what, four years ago,

323
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what would we tell young people

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for a secure career, learn to code?

325
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And now the opposite of that is true.

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Causation and et cetera, et cetera here.

327
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So here's my hot take on this.

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We have witnessed a 15, 20 year bubble

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in developer salaries.

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And you really see it when you go look

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at job postings from Anthropic

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and some of these other companies

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that are really getting the tech funding right now.

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There was one AI company

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that is offering $300,000 a year,

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more than $300,000 a year, plus all the perks you get, which are numerous, for just managing

337
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the analytics, you know, just doing analytics stuff, just basic tracking stuff.

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There are developer positions that pay upwards of $700,000 right now.

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We are in peak fiat behavior when it comes to these positions.

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And what we are going to watch and probably already seeing is a bit of a correction because

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we had put these developers on these pedestals as if they were humans that have achieved

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something that only an elite could, and therefore we were compensating them such. However, what turns

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out humans weren't particularly great at, machines may get good at. I'm witnessing the same thing

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happening with self-driving. I literally was drove by my car from Seattle in downtown Seattle traffic,

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where it's horrible, to Pasadena, through LA, through Pasadena, from every spot, from parking

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lot to garage to parking garage to event center. And the car was driving better than just about

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every other Californian on the road. We're already at the point where a self-driving Tesla is a better

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driver than your average Californian. Now, I know it's a low bar. I know that's a low bar,

349
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but it's a bar that we've already surpassed. So it's likely that it's going to get better at some

350
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of these other tasks, too. That will create a market correction. That will be rough for sure,

351
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which they're going to get into in a little bit.

352
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But I think it's more of the fact that we've been paying too much,

353
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$500,000, $800,000, $300,000 to do analytics,

354
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to manage the Google Analytics.

355
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Okay?

356
00:22:35,016 --> 00:22:36,096
It's crazy.

357
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It's fiat bonkers.

358
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It needs a correction.

359
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And I hate to say it.

360
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I'd love to have a tech salary like that.

361
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I used to work in the tech industry, and I probably was paid too much.

362
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I fix that now by being a podcaster.

363
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Cliff from a lot of programs. If you rewind, what, four years ago, what would we tell young people for a secure career, learn to code? And now the opposite of that is true.

364
00:22:57,476 --> 00:22:59,876
So where are you on jobs long term?

365
00:23:00,636 --> 00:23:11,976
Look, Dario Amadei, the CEO of Anthropic, laid it out very clearly, and he's been doing so repeatedly, saying we're going to automate away up to 50 percent of entry level white collar jobs in the next several years.

366
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And I believe him. The easiest people to fire are the people you haven't hired yet, which, again, is why you see the hiring of recent college graduates heading down.

367
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And underemployment rate over 50 percent. The unemployment rate among college graduates is now the same or higher than non-college graduates for the first time in history.

368
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Maybe that's because their college educations are becoming less and less value and they bring less and less value to the marketplace.

369
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I got into this in the last episode, but I think it's just worth mentioning what we are seeing right here in front of us is the lump of labor fallacy at play.

370
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Andrew assumes there is a fixed amount of work to be done ever.

371
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But again, history shows us every major industrial revolution or innovation has always brought net more jobs.

372
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That's just the historical truth.

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and there's a very real possibility

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as AI makes basic needs

375
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like coding, legal advice,

376
00:24:04,096 --> 00:24:06,996
administration get cheaper and cheaper,

377
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humanity will shift

378
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to higher order value creation

379
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that we just can't think of right now.

380
00:24:13,676 --> 00:24:14,976
For me, it could mean

381
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that perhaps I have less time

382
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focused on running the business

383
00:24:18,656 --> 00:24:20,136
and more time focused on content,

384
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which just makes my business grow,

385
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makes my shows better

386
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and my family better off.

387
00:24:26,276 --> 00:24:29,556
This is all true when we electrified the workforce as well.

388
00:24:30,116 --> 00:24:32,876
We really, really changed things.

389
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What is different is we have to provide a sound medium of exchange to trade the value that we earn.

390
00:24:39,396 --> 00:24:43,276
The people will net benefit if they have hard savings, if they have hard money.

391
00:24:43,396 --> 00:24:53,576
They will net benefit from the deflationary nature of AI and the new higher order value they can create with different types of jobs where they don't have to manage the tedium anymore.

392
00:24:54,196 --> 00:24:55,896
It's actually really a false dilemma.

393
00:24:55,896 --> 00:25:05,156
It's an either or that he's putting forward. Andrew claims, and he often does this, that we have to choose between some sort of massive UBI program or inevitable riots in the streets.

394
00:25:06,036 --> 00:25:10,876
You know, he talks about social collapse if we don't do that. But he ignores the option of fixing the money.

395
00:25:10,876 --> 00:25:24,976
If the currency were hard, like Bitcoin, then the falling costs of goods or services that come down because maybe it's cheaper for AT&T to help you now because they don't have to hire a thousand people in a call center.

396
00:25:25,816 --> 00:25:27,876
So maybe your phone bill comes down 20 bucks.

397
00:25:28,956 --> 00:25:36,976
Maybe this, when you apply that across every service and everything you use and consume, maybe things do get a little cheaper.

398
00:25:36,976 --> 00:25:42,956
And if you can save what you earn in a hard money while things are getting cheaper, maybe you don't need UBI.

399
00:25:43,816 --> 00:25:52,416
See, this is the nuance is if we're going to go down this route, how do you help people through what is no doubt going to be a tough transition?

400
00:25:52,556 --> 00:25:59,116
No doubt. I mean, like if you have call centers with thousands of people and you have AI automate that, that's going to be a tough transition.

401
00:25:59,436 --> 00:26:06,736
But so how do you help them without slowing down the progress and locketing methods and ways of doing things that are just out of date?

402
00:26:06,736 --> 00:26:08,096
Like I just came from Oregon.

403
00:26:08,256 --> 00:26:08,496
I right.

404
00:26:08,536 --> 00:26:09,396
I drove through Oregon.

405
00:26:10,196 --> 00:26:14,756
Oregon still has gas attendants that pump your gas.

406
00:26:15,596 --> 00:26:19,516
A couple of years ago, they made it optional and there's less of them now.

407
00:26:19,736 --> 00:26:25,856
But they still like a couple of years ago when I drove through Oregon, it was illegal for me to pump my own gas.

408
00:26:26,276 --> 00:26:27,856
And they didn't even know how to pump gas for my RV.

409
00:26:28,256 --> 00:26:29,856
I had to tell them how to do it.

410
00:26:30,396 --> 00:26:32,096
I wasn't allowed to do it myself.

411
00:26:33,036 --> 00:26:38,156
Initially, it was because gas was so dangerous and cars were so dangerous that we put these

412
00:26:38,156 --> 00:26:38,636
rolls in.

413
00:26:39,156 --> 00:26:41,536
But of course, as time went on, we weren't so scared about that.

414
00:26:41,596 --> 00:26:43,416
But then it became about keeping the jobs.

415
00:26:43,476 --> 00:26:44,416
We've got to keep the jobs.

416
00:26:44,496 --> 00:26:49,036
If we don't have gas attendance, we're going to lay off X thousands of people across Oregon.

417
00:26:49,216 --> 00:26:50,476
We've got to keep the jobs.

418
00:26:51,156 --> 00:26:54,256
Of course, slowly over time, they've chipped away at that now.

419
00:26:54,856 --> 00:26:59,296
But it does remind me of how we can sometimes lock in a way of doing things that just doesn't

420
00:26:59,296 --> 00:27:00,996
make sense 20 years later at all.

421
00:27:00,996 --> 00:27:06,916
especially when you you know you just think about how rapidly things are changing i think i mean i i

422
00:27:06,916 --> 00:27:11,276
can see it where there's a need especially with inflation and all of that but the problem is is

423
00:27:11,276 --> 00:27:15,836
it just feeds into that the price and rent the price of eggs whatever it might be will just

424
00:27:15,836 --> 00:27:23,316
eventually adjust to consume the additional money that everyone has just how it works it essentially

425
00:27:23,316 --> 00:27:28,336
make the two thousand dollars or whatever the ubi is net out to nothing because the market of goods

426
00:27:28,336 --> 00:27:33,896
will just come up or the government has to do some kind of dramatic market control, which

427
00:27:33,896 --> 00:27:46,273
always seems to blow up and honestly seems impossible with the current state of government around the world right now Or you have to have a fixed supply of money You know to me it like UBI might work I don know for a year but it a temporary

428
00:27:46,273 --> 00:27:49,753
Band-Aid on a gushing wound that would just feed the inflationary cycle.

429
00:27:50,753 --> 00:27:53,873
I think the key difference, the way I see things, and I'm curious how you see things,

430
00:27:54,733 --> 00:27:57,673
Andrew wants to tax the robots to pay the humans to stay home.

431
00:27:57,813 --> 00:27:58,733
That's basically his plan.

432
00:27:59,073 --> 00:28:03,853
And I think Bitcoiners want to use the robots to make everything so cheap that you don't

433
00:28:03,853 --> 00:28:18,413
need a high-paying job to live like a king. I just want a farm, a few animals, the wife and the kids

434
00:28:18,413 --> 00:28:23,713
and my dog. I really didn't just, you know, stay humble and stack sats. But sometimes people want

435
00:28:23,713 --> 00:28:27,573
to mess with our nice things. And I do want to get to some FUD that came up while I was traveling.

436
00:28:27,573 --> 00:28:32,193
It's like they knew I was gone, guys. While I was away, two well-known billionaires who had

437
00:28:32,193 --> 00:28:37,313
previously been quite pro-Bitcoin and has made money on Bitcoin, came out with a new tune that

438
00:28:37,313 --> 00:28:42,913
sounds an awful lot alike around the same time. And we'll start with Ray Dalio.

439
00:28:43,693 --> 00:28:51,373
Okay, so Bitcoin does not have privacy. Any transactions can be monitored and then

440
00:28:51,373 --> 00:28:57,193
indirectly perhaps controlled. Central banks are not going to want to buy Bitcoin

441
00:28:57,193 --> 00:29:03,333
and being able to hold it. So it's not just individuals, it's institutions and so on,

442
00:29:03,453 --> 00:29:08,133
but most, you know, and central banks, so that there are attributes of that.

443
00:29:08,593 --> 00:29:15,453
There has been some question or thoughts of the development of, you know, new technologies like

444
00:29:15,453 --> 00:29:21,273
quantum computing and so on. Can there be issues regarding that? And then there's, you know,

445
00:29:21,273 --> 00:29:27,173
who owns it and what are the other exposures that they have in their portfolio? It tends to

446
00:29:27,173 --> 00:29:36,213
have a pretty high correlation with the tech stocks from an ownership. Just the supply demand

447
00:29:36,213 --> 00:29:42,793
is affected by if somebody gets squeezed in one thing, they sell something, whatever else they

448
00:29:42,793 --> 00:29:50,113
have. So there are those dynamics. It's a long way, and it's a relatively small market that's

449
00:29:50,113 --> 00:29:54,813
a relatively controllable market. I think a lot of attention has been given to Bitcoin,

450
00:29:54,813 --> 00:30:01,433
But as a money, you know, it's it's it's it's small in relationship to gold.

451
00:30:01,553 --> 00:30:03,793
And so, you know, those are the dynamics.

452
00:30:04,473 --> 00:30:05,873
There is only one goal.

453
00:30:06,113 --> 00:30:06,773
What about silver?

454
00:30:08,473 --> 00:30:09,913
All right.

455
00:30:09,933 --> 00:30:12,913
So that was his interview with Friedberg on a one on one on the all in podcast.

456
00:30:13,353 --> 00:30:16,993
And let's break a few of these down because it's sort of disappointing to hear Ray say this.

457
00:30:17,053 --> 00:30:18,813
I think maybe he's got the wrong advice in his ear.

458
00:30:19,153 --> 00:30:21,953
So let's talk about the privacy one, because I think this is interesting.

459
00:30:22,033 --> 00:30:22,813
We're going to come back to it.

460
00:30:22,813 --> 00:30:26,373
So Ray claims that Bitcoin lacks privacy because transactions can be monitored.

461
00:30:27,033 --> 00:30:29,173
However, the reality is that Bitcoin is pseudo-anonymous.

462
00:30:29,373 --> 00:30:30,193
It's not anonymous.

463
00:30:30,873 --> 00:30:33,413
On-chain data isn't tied to a real-world identity.

464
00:30:33,853 --> 00:30:40,173
So you need external leaking factors to tie a pseudo-anonymous transaction on a blockchain to a person.

465
00:30:40,833 --> 00:30:42,473
So it's not just something casuals are doing.

466
00:30:43,133 --> 00:30:47,433
And Dalio himself has been talking a lot recently about CBDCs and how they are coming

467
00:30:47,433 --> 00:30:51,353
and how they will deliver zero privacy and total government control, in his words.

468
00:30:52,033 --> 00:30:59,613
And then these discussions about Bitcoin privacy, because these folks are not very well informed, are always ignorant of layer two solutions.

469
00:31:00,493 --> 00:31:12,493
And I think that is unfortunate because, you know, when we talk about the limitations of gold, when it comes to privacy or when it comes to liquidity or when it comes to moving it quickly, the answers are always third party services.

470
00:31:12,713 --> 00:31:16,973
That's how they always solve these problems that are inherent with gold is third party services.

471
00:31:17,433 --> 00:31:18,693
Well, what is a layer two solution?

472
00:31:18,693 --> 00:31:20,573
Essentially, it's a third party service in a way.

473
00:31:20,573 --> 00:31:38,053
But we don't talk about, though, when it comes to Bitcoin. Then there's this central bank fallacy. And I'm not sure why the Fed or central banks, although a central bank did just buy Bitcoin after Ray said this, ironically, but I'm not sure why central banks owning Bitcoin became the goalpost of 2026.

474
00:31:38,053 --> 00:31:48,093
I mean, this sounds like maybe a conversation for 2036, 2046, but in 2026, this is the goalpost in which we must judge this nascent currency buy?

475
00:31:48,753 --> 00:31:52,753
And he argues that central banks won't buy Bitcoin because they can't control it.

476
00:31:53,173 --> 00:31:56,593
That's the exact reason why there's network demand for it by individuals.

477
00:31:57,133 --> 00:32:00,993
I think what Ray is doing is he's viewing money solely through a lens of state power.

478
00:32:01,293 --> 00:32:06,813
And he's not considering individual sovereignty that are trying to protect themselves from debasement.

479
00:32:06,813 --> 00:32:12,313
people that are looking for savings technology. He's not making that connection. And then, of

480
00:32:12,313 --> 00:32:16,513
course, you know, because it's always rapid fire. There's never just one criticism that is actually

481
00:32:16,513 --> 00:32:21,213
deep and valid. It's always hit several things quick because, you know, when you combine them

482
00:32:21,213 --> 00:32:27,133
all up, it sounds bad. So we got to sneak a vague reference to quantum in there. He says it's an

483
00:32:27,133 --> 00:32:34,133
existential threat. In reality, it's a tired narrative. It's exhausting. I call it exhausting

484
00:32:34,133 --> 00:32:35,813
because it's just really basic.

485
00:32:36,333 --> 00:32:37,333
There's going to be signs.

486
00:32:37,913 --> 00:32:38,973
We'll know it's coming.

487
00:32:39,893 --> 00:32:41,433
Military equipment will get compromised.

488
00:32:41,733 --> 00:32:43,833
You know, like a central bank somewhere,

489
00:32:44,033 --> 00:32:45,873
I don't know, in some third world country,

490
00:32:45,973 --> 00:32:47,873
I don't know, some bank's going to get compromised

491
00:32:47,873 --> 00:32:48,813
and probably wiped out.

492
00:32:49,473 --> 00:32:51,033
You're going to see the federal government

493
00:32:51,033 --> 00:32:52,693
start issuing warnings, right?

494
00:32:52,753 --> 00:32:56,073
It will not be Bitcoin that falls first.

495
00:32:56,473 --> 00:32:59,933
They are very, very far from that.

496
00:33:00,513 --> 00:33:02,273
You have to, you need to look up

497
00:33:02,273 --> 00:33:08,353
the progress they have made in just the last few years to understand that we are so far away from

498
00:33:08,353 --> 00:33:12,573
this, that even if they were to massively accelerate the trend right now by some sort of

499
00:33:12,573 --> 00:33:16,633
AI-guided superintelligence, the physics of building the hardware isn't there yet.

500
00:33:16,633 --> 00:33:22,593
We are so far away. We can do math with bits of 26 right now. Like, that's it.

501
00:33:23,933 --> 00:33:29,453
You're going to need to get to thousands of qubits to crack SHA-256. And even once you do

502
00:33:29,453 --> 00:33:35,753
start cracking, you start crackalacking, it's going to be SSL certificates. It might be old

503
00:33:35,753 --> 00:33:42,373
Satoshi era coins, right? It's not the consensus protocol of Bitcoin. And then Bitcoin, of course,

504
00:33:42,893 --> 00:33:49,933
is an upgradable protocol after all. So, I mean, it just to me seems like it would be the equivalent

505
00:33:49,933 --> 00:33:58,213
of a gold bug worrying about a rocket company like SpaceX finding gold on a huge asteroid in space

506
00:33:58,213 --> 00:34:02,733
and then bringing back a massive amount of gold and tanking the market.

507
00:34:03,333 --> 00:34:04,353
Could that happen?

508
00:34:05,033 --> 00:34:08,633
Yeah, maybe in 2046, maybe in 2036, maybe.

509
00:34:08,773 --> 00:34:10,313
Maybe one day that will happen, right?

510
00:34:10,393 --> 00:34:12,353
It seems like there's incentives that could line up.

511
00:34:13,133 --> 00:34:15,653
Is it a major reason to sell your gold in 2026?

512
00:34:16,233 --> 00:34:16,573
No.

513
00:34:17,293 --> 00:34:19,933
No, you'd be silly for worrying about that today.

514
00:34:20,173 --> 00:34:20,833
Could it happen?

515
00:34:20,973 --> 00:34:21,233
Sure.

516
00:34:21,913 --> 00:34:23,393
Are there incentives to make it happen?

517
00:34:23,553 --> 00:34:24,033
Yes.

518
00:34:24,833 --> 00:34:26,333
Is it going to happen next year?

519
00:34:26,433 --> 00:34:26,933
No.

520
00:34:27,453 --> 00:34:27,813
Right?

521
00:34:28,073 --> 00:34:29,693
That's where we're at with quantum right now.

522
00:34:29,813 --> 00:34:32,193
The gold bugs just need to wrap their head around that.

523
00:34:32,613 --> 00:34:36,933
And then last but not least, he has to throw in the correlation versus causality.

524
00:34:37,413 --> 00:34:41,093
He dismisses Bitcoin because it correlates with tech stocks during liquidity squeezes,

525
00:34:41,873 --> 00:34:44,933
which Ray has been in this game for a long time.

526
00:34:45,653 --> 00:34:47,393
This is where I start to get a little sus.

527
00:34:48,553 --> 00:34:50,473
Ray knows this is an early adoption artifact.

528
00:34:51,353 --> 00:34:54,173
Ray knows you don't blame the asset for weak hands.

529
00:34:55,053 --> 00:34:59,013
Ray knows that as the market cap grows, Bitcoin's beta to the Nasdaq will decouple.

530
00:34:59,993 --> 00:35:03,913
Ray knows that gold itself crashed in March of 2020 before rebounding strongly.

531
00:35:04,673 --> 00:35:06,033
So what's going on here?

532
00:35:06,093 --> 00:35:13,053
Now, this is just my opinion, but I think you have OG gold bugs that bought Bitcoin, you know, when gold wasn't doing well for like a decade.

533
00:35:13,713 --> 00:35:17,893
And now they're kind of going back to their roots now that gold got a pamp and they're feeling good.

534
00:35:17,893 --> 00:35:19,453
It's like it's their favorite child again.

535
00:35:20,093 --> 00:35:25,453
You also have to consider that Dalio's business, Bridgewater, manages massive amounts of institutional and sovereign wealth.

536
00:35:26,233 --> 00:35:34,273
So calling Bitcoin small or uncontrollable is sort of a signal to those clients that, you know, he's still a safe steward of their status quo assets and they don't need to worry too much.

537
00:35:35,053 --> 00:35:37,993
Now, this is where maybe I get a little more speculative.

538
00:35:38,853 --> 00:35:44,113
But it also seems like maybe there's a bigger play here that Ray's not ready to talk about.

539
00:35:44,713 --> 00:35:46,273
Ray's not a regular talking head.

540
00:35:46,373 --> 00:35:48,293
He's an active investor even to this day.

541
00:35:48,293 --> 00:35:51,273
And he's been talking about CBDCs for a few years.

542
00:35:51,993 --> 00:35:53,933
I think you got to consider Ray's history.

543
00:35:54,093 --> 00:35:55,593
So this is, you know, some of this is narrative.

544
00:35:55,593 --> 00:36:12,193
But in 1961, at age 12, Ray has a story about buying a near bankrupt penny stock airline, which then got acquired and then tripled his money overnight when he was 12 years old.

545
00:36:12,353 --> 00:36:14,973
In 1970, he leveraged commodities futures.

546
00:36:14,973 --> 00:36:22,733
He went all in in the 70s on oil, grains, and cattle with max leverage during massive inflation and all the oil shock stuff that was going on.

547
00:36:23,273 --> 00:36:29,913
That turned tiny itsy bitsy Bridgewater into a real viable business and made him a million dollars before he was 30 years old.

548
00:36:30,773 --> 00:36:31,573
Risky bets.

549
00:36:32,493 --> 00:36:34,473
1987. Black Monday.

550
00:36:35,333 --> 00:36:39,433
Ray bet against overvalued stocks ahead of a 22% one-day crash.

551
00:36:39,433 --> 00:36:45,273
Bridgewater profited while everyone else got wiped out.

552
00:36:45,633 --> 00:36:50,253
That made them an institutional name and brought them the big clients from then on out.

553
00:36:50,253 --> 00:37:01,653
And then in the 2007 to 2008 global financial crisis, Ray called the housing debt bubble early and he loaded up on bonds and gold and hedged everything.

554
00:37:02,213 --> 00:37:09,293
His pure alpha fund gained 9% during the financial crisis while everyone lost at least 20% or more.

555
00:37:09,433 --> 00:37:14,433
and their assets doubled to $85 billion and made Bridgewater the number one hedge fund on earth.

556
00:37:15,493 --> 00:37:20,093
Ray will take risks and make bets for long-term plays.

557
00:37:20,613 --> 00:37:21,573
So what's my point?

558
00:37:21,993 --> 00:37:23,413
Well, let's bring in another billionaire.

559
00:37:23,593 --> 00:37:24,773
Let's talk about Chamath.

560
00:37:24,973 --> 00:37:28,173
He made similar statements within just a couple of days of Ray.

561
00:37:28,373 --> 00:37:32,593
And I think this one's pretty interesting because Chamath has made a lot of his money on Bitcoin,

562
00:37:32,973 --> 00:37:34,913
and notice how similar the tune is.

563
00:37:35,173 --> 00:37:39,373
There's a structural failing in Bitcoin that I think people will need to come and wrap their heads around.

564
00:37:39,433 --> 00:37:47,953
The structural failing is that it is not. So if you think about like, what is the value maximizing function right now for a crypto asset to be broadly adopted?

565
00:37:48,173 --> 00:37:50,033
Oh, yeah. By the way, he talks like a VC. I'm sorry.

566
00:37:50,893 --> 00:37:55,573
What is the value maximizing function right now for a crypto asset to be broadly adopted?

567
00:37:55,793 --> 00:37:59,473
It needs to have the features that allow a central bank to adopt it.

568
00:37:59,673 --> 00:38:04,053
Whoa, there's that goalpost again. The central bank goalpost.

569
00:38:04,053 --> 00:38:11,053
Here we are in 2026. All of a sudden, in a couple of months, Chamath went from he's all in on Bitcoin to whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, no, no.

570
00:38:11,333 --> 00:38:15,553
And I mean literally just like in December he was saying this to now it's whoa, whoa, whoa.

571
00:38:15,913 --> 00:38:17,253
We need central bank adoption.

572
00:38:17,673 --> 00:38:22,453
It'd be broadly adopted. It needs to have the features that allow a central bank to adopt it.

573
00:38:22,853 --> 00:38:26,413
And there are two things that it lacks. You know, one is fungibility and two is privacy.

574
00:38:26,413 --> 00:38:42,473
Now, the fungibility thing is his version of fungibility because a true Bitcoiner knows the difference between fungible and non-fungible, which Hamath is talking about is a privacy angle, a privacy version of fungible that is using the term not in the monetary definition.

575
00:38:42,733 --> 00:38:44,493
So Bitcoin fails on those two dimensions.

576
00:38:44,693 --> 00:38:48,133
So it can never be a structural holding of a central bank.

577
00:38:48,313 --> 00:38:53,113
And that simple thing will keep it in the realm of ETFs and humans.

578
00:38:53,753 --> 00:38:55,333
Does gold satisfy those conditions?

579
00:38:55,333 --> 00:38:55,853
Yeah.

580
00:38:56,293 --> 00:38:57,553
Fungibility, but not easily.

581
00:38:58,073 --> 00:38:58,473
Both.

582
00:38:58,573 --> 00:39:00,733
You have no idea how much the Bank of China owns.

583
00:39:01,033 --> 00:39:02,133
You don't know how many ounces they own.

584
00:39:02,193 --> 00:39:03,393
You don't know how many ounces I own.

585
00:39:03,753 --> 00:39:06,553
When there's a public ledger that says this address has this much,

586
00:39:06,713 --> 00:39:09,913
and you can't really trade it because you know the history

587
00:39:09,913 --> 00:39:11,713
and the provenance of that exact token.

588
00:39:11,993 --> 00:39:13,253
It's been used to buy this.

589
00:39:13,313 --> 00:39:14,553
It was transacted over here.

590
00:39:14,653 --> 00:39:15,313
It went to this wallet.

591
00:39:15,313 --> 00:39:19,053
That lack of fungibility and privacy is a huge deterrent

592
00:39:19,053 --> 00:39:21,493
for broad structural adoption.

593
00:39:21,493 --> 00:39:26,013
That's what you need to then add another 10x of market cap.

594
00:39:26,353 --> 00:39:32,933
So is there room for a different crypto asset that solves for the privacy and fungibility?

595
00:39:33,273 --> 00:39:33,453
Yeah.

596
00:39:33,553 --> 00:39:34,913
And are there projects right now?

597
00:39:35,013 --> 00:39:36,213
Yes, but they're very small scale.

598
00:39:36,333 --> 00:39:37,633
There's huge issues with them.

599
00:39:37,973 --> 00:39:39,133
Those are even more volatile.

600
00:39:40,173 --> 00:39:40,353
Huh.

601
00:39:40,413 --> 00:39:44,113
If only some brilliant thinker with money could come in and fix them.

602
00:39:44,273 --> 00:39:47,233
And then they could solve that problem.

603
00:39:47,533 --> 00:39:47,893
Hmm.

604
00:39:47,953 --> 00:39:49,893
I wonder if that's where this is going.

605
00:39:50,553 --> 00:39:56,813
We're about to see some sort of privacy coin pump that's going to get Dalio and Chamath's brand attached to it.

606
00:39:57,253 --> 00:39:59,133
You know, Chamath, same playbook.

607
00:39:59,413 --> 00:40:01,253
You know, he was early Facebook equity bet.

608
00:40:01,793 --> 00:40:03,193
You know, he made a bunch on SPACs.

609
00:40:03,253 --> 00:40:06,013
He bought a ton of Bitcoin around $80 and $100.

610
00:40:07,313 --> 00:40:11,173
He owned nearly 5% of the supply on the market at the time.

611
00:40:11,173 --> 00:40:12,993
Of course, he sold it to buy real estate and whatnot.

612
00:40:13,953 --> 00:40:15,993
And, of course, he just made a ton of money on Grok AI.

613
00:40:16,173 --> 00:40:16,973
That's Grok with a Q.

614
00:40:17,653 --> 00:40:21,073
So, you know, he's riding high on his own supply and he's going to fix it.

615
00:40:21,193 --> 00:40:31,573
Both Chamath and Ray see themselves as visionary savants with sort of this dark, pragmatic acceptance of the force of government, sort of this inevitability of the state.

616
00:40:32,053 --> 00:40:41,513
So it wouldn't surprise me if these two big brains have some sort of big brain whispering in their ear, telling them that Bitcoin 2.0 is private and they're going to have something ready for them to promote when the time comes.

617
00:40:41,513 --> 00:40:49,653
So why not both play the long game now? Start laying the groundwork today. Then over time, attach your name to the brand whenever this coin starts to come to the surface.

618
00:40:50,353 --> 00:40:57,093
That's my only thinking here, because this gold stuff is ridiculous. It just obviously is an old technology.

619
00:40:57,253 --> 00:41:07,433
And the idea that the central banks wouldn't be able to hold Bitcoin without everybody knowing their balance is some sort of weird, crazy, like version of Bitcoin that doesn't actually match.

620
00:41:07,433 --> 00:41:11,173
And it's interesting how he could own so much and not seem to understand it. All right.

621
00:41:11,513 --> 00:41:17,633
So here's my question. Am I off on this analysis? What do you think? Why would these otherwise

622
00:41:17,633 --> 00:41:24,173
pretty two smart guys start humming the same tune around the same time? I mean, it seems like these

623
00:41:24,173 --> 00:41:39,949
issues they bring up are pretty debunkable I surprised Chamath didn throw in quantum Maybe he will do that next time he gets asked So is my analysis you think on the point or is there something else going on that I missing I like you to boost it and tell me why you think they bringing these things up and where this goalpost comes from

624
00:41:40,509 --> 00:41:43,809
And also, just like, just give me the pleb take.

625
00:41:43,909 --> 00:41:46,829
Does it matter if the central bank ever owns Bitcoin?

626
00:41:46,829 --> 00:41:49,289
And if you think it does, tell me why.

627
00:41:49,409 --> 00:41:51,029
And if you think it doesn't, tell me why.

628
00:41:55,769 --> 00:42:17,049
All right, coming up on the show, it's your boost, but more thoughts on BIP 110, some Bitcoin observations from my trip and more.

629
00:42:17,049 --> 00:42:21,269
So I just want to mention you can support this show by doing what you're already going to do.

630
00:42:21,489 --> 00:42:22,269
That's Stack Sats.

631
00:42:22,269 --> 00:42:25,269
If you buy sats on river, one of the best ways to stack sats in the U.S.,

632
00:42:26,149 --> 00:42:27,929
use my link in the show notes if you would.

633
00:42:28,249 --> 00:42:32,949
The Bitcoin well, it's an amazing automatic self-custody Bitcoin platform for the U.S. and Canada.

634
00:42:33,409 --> 00:42:34,529
No, they don't have a wallet.

635
00:42:34,669 --> 00:42:35,609
You host everything.

636
00:42:36,189 --> 00:42:37,429
Their link's in the show notes as well.

637
00:42:37,949 --> 00:42:41,969
When it comes time to spend some Bitcoin, go from sats to gift card in just seconds.

638
00:42:42,409 --> 00:42:43,869
That's the Bitcoin company.

639
00:42:44,309 --> 00:42:45,129
They only do Bitcoin.

640
00:42:45,489 --> 00:42:45,949
Link for them.

641
00:42:46,529 --> 00:42:48,569
Time to stack sats while you're paying bills.

642
00:42:48,729 --> 00:42:49,809
Passively stack, as they say.

643
00:42:49,869 --> 00:42:51,009
Yeah, that's Foldcard.

644
00:42:51,009 --> 00:42:54,549
and if you need access to your Bitcoin value without selling, that's SALT lending.

645
00:42:54,949 --> 00:42:56,089
I'll have links to those in the notes.

646
00:42:56,169 --> 00:42:57,489
You use them, you support the show.

647
00:42:58,189 --> 00:43:00,609
Appreciate that very much, as well as our members and boosters.

648
00:43:00,849 --> 00:43:01,529
That's coming up next.

649
00:43:01,529 --> 00:43:21,709
And now, as the French say, it is time for le boost.

650
00:43:21,709 --> 00:43:22,189
Make it so.

651
00:43:23,449 --> 00:43:25,969
All right, let's get to the boost.

652
00:43:25,969 --> 00:43:32,369
And Bobbypin is our baller booster this week with 100,000 cents.

653
00:43:41,569 --> 00:43:47,149
All right, Bobbypin, thank you.

654
00:43:47,189 --> 00:43:48,789
He writes, welcome back from scale.

655
00:43:49,149 --> 00:43:51,989
I'm curious if you saw any Bitcoin usage while you were there.

656
00:43:51,989 --> 00:43:55,589
I started listening to you because of Linux and then introduced me to Bitcoin.

657
00:43:55,969 --> 00:44:00,389
The reason why I'm so passionate about Bitcoin now is there's a lot of the same reasons I've been passionate about Linux since 2014.

658
00:44:00,689 --> 00:44:01,809
So it seems like it'd be a great fit.

659
00:44:02,389 --> 00:44:04,269
Bobby Pin, you're on to something there, buddy.

660
00:44:04,489 --> 00:44:07,009
And I will give you a full update.

661
00:44:07,109 --> 00:44:10,709
I created a full update in the latter bit of the show coming up.

662
00:44:10,749 --> 00:44:11,349
So stay tuned.

663
00:44:11,489 --> 00:44:13,729
I will give you my full report, sir, based on your request.

664
00:44:13,729 --> 00:44:16,849
And thank you very much for being our baller booster.

665
00:44:17,669 --> 00:44:18,269
That's very nice.

666
00:44:18,409 --> 00:44:19,409
Appreciate that very much.

667
00:44:20,229 --> 00:44:23,209
JQ3 comes in with 56,100 sats.

668
00:44:23,209 --> 00:44:26,089
I hoard that which your kind covet.

669
00:44:26,149 --> 00:44:27,569
Also very much appreciated.

670
00:44:28,109 --> 00:44:28,629
Boost!

671
00:44:28,769 --> 00:44:29,469
Thank you, JQ.

672
00:44:30,229 --> 00:44:31,149
AI has...

673
00:44:31,149 --> 00:44:31,429
Oh, good.

674
00:44:31,449 --> 00:44:33,049
I asked you guys how AI was impacting work.

675
00:44:33,409 --> 00:44:37,909
AI has augmented the way I work, but I haven't seen it replace or even threaten my job.

676
00:44:38,229 --> 00:44:41,709
The real drawback is that management has started tasking AI responses as...

677
00:44:41,709 --> 00:44:44,069
Taking AI responses as gospel.

678
00:44:44,389 --> 00:44:45,049
Oh, man.

679
00:44:45,609 --> 00:44:46,429
Enjoy Planet X.

680
00:44:46,809 --> 00:44:48,049
Thank you for that report, JQ.

681
00:44:48,329 --> 00:44:48,769
Interesting.

682
00:44:48,969 --> 00:44:50,369
And I will take that signal in.

683
00:44:50,689 --> 00:44:51,649
I love the boots on the ground.

684
00:44:51,649 --> 00:44:55,769
If you didn't get a chance to tell me how AI is impacting your job, I would very much like to know.

685
00:44:56,509 --> 00:44:58,989
A Monday comes in with 36,011 sats.

686
00:44:59,129 --> 00:45:00,989
You're doing very well.

687
00:45:01,189 --> 00:45:02,629
And he says, boosty, boost, boost, boost.

688
00:45:02,749 --> 00:45:04,209
B-O-O-S-T.

689
00:45:04,429 --> 00:45:04,849
Thank you, sir.

690
00:45:04,929 --> 00:45:05,809
Appreciate that.

691
00:45:06,289 --> 00:45:09,649
Chutoy comes in with 22,222 sats.

692
00:45:10,249 --> 00:45:11,509
That's a McDuck boost.

693
00:45:11,729 --> 00:45:13,929
Things are looking up for old McDuck.

694
00:45:14,209 --> 00:45:14,529
Great show.

695
00:45:14,569 --> 00:45:21,389
I'm a dog groomer in southern GA, so I don't expect AI to take my job anytime soon.

696
00:45:21,389 --> 00:45:28,709
So you're telling me you're walking around in Southern Georgia with dogs and you're, are you listening to the podcast while you're doing that?

697
00:45:28,889 --> 00:45:29,929
Like, are you podcast listening?

698
00:45:30,489 --> 00:45:34,629
Chew Toy, this now makes so much more sense why your nickname is Chew Toy.

699
00:45:34,729 --> 00:45:35,729
I never knew this.

700
00:45:36,189 --> 00:45:37,089
This is great.

701
00:45:37,349 --> 00:45:41,609
I love the idea of you walking around dogs where it's hot as balls listening to the show.

702
00:45:42,529 --> 00:45:44,789
I can't even, like, this is a great visual.

703
00:45:44,869 --> 00:45:47,149
I hope you're wearing like, you know, some cool guy 80s shorts.

704
00:45:47,269 --> 00:45:49,269
I mean, if you are, please let me know.

705
00:45:49,969 --> 00:45:50,229
Huh.

706
00:45:50,229 --> 00:45:51,929
I've never been to Georgia.

707
00:45:52,429 --> 00:45:52,949
Would like to go.

708
00:45:52,989 --> 00:45:54,069
I don't think I've ever been to Georgia.

709
00:45:54,309 --> 00:45:54,889
I would like to go.

710
00:45:55,449 --> 00:45:56,349
Thank you very much.

711
00:45:56,409 --> 00:45:58,409
And he says, I'd love to hear about running a node.

712
00:45:58,769 --> 00:46:02,269
I will disclose, as you probably noticed, Wes and I did not get a chance.

713
00:46:02,349 --> 00:46:02,609
I know.

714
00:46:02,649 --> 00:46:04,649
It's like the show that keeps continuing to escape me.

715
00:46:05,089 --> 00:46:05,989
We were so busy.

716
00:46:06,109 --> 00:46:06,989
I'll talk more about that.

717
00:46:06,989 --> 00:46:08,629
But Chutoy, thank you very much.

718
00:46:09,229 --> 00:46:12,409
BTC is my 401k.

719
00:46:12,809 --> 00:46:14,689
Comes in with 21,000 sats.

720
00:46:15,589 --> 00:46:17,189
21 gigawatts.

721
00:46:17,289 --> 00:46:18,529
Plus one for the node special.

722
00:46:18,529 --> 00:46:21,189
it's the next frontier for my Bitcoin and self-hosting journey.

723
00:46:21,349 --> 00:46:23,289
AI has completely flipped my workflow.

724
00:46:23,929 --> 00:46:25,029
Instead of troubleshooting SaaS,

725
00:46:25,149 --> 00:46:27,749
I'm building custom in-house tools to cut subscription fees.

726
00:46:28,129 --> 00:46:29,689
Every bit helps our small business.

727
00:46:30,449 --> 00:46:31,049
Oh, interesting.

728
00:46:31,649 --> 00:46:33,089
Doesn't sound like you're getting laid off either.

729
00:46:33,189 --> 00:46:34,969
Sounds like you're going to make the company more money

730
00:46:34,969 --> 00:46:36,589
and they're probably going to be very grateful for that.

731
00:46:37,029 --> 00:46:38,109
Please do keep me posted.

732
00:46:38,249 --> 00:46:39,469
BTC is my 401k.

733
00:46:39,549 --> 00:46:40,369
I always love hearing from you.

734
00:46:41,109 --> 00:46:44,269
Nakabado 6102 is here with 5,000 sets.

735
00:46:44,429 --> 00:46:46,609
Oh my God, this drawer is filled with fruit loops.

736
00:46:46,689 --> 00:46:47,789
I work in a law office.

737
00:46:47,789 --> 00:46:50,149
AI is used for research and drafting documents.

738
00:46:50,289 --> 00:46:53,469
It hasn't eliminated any jobs, but it has made us more productive.

739
00:46:54,089 --> 00:46:56,109
If anything, we're actually looking to hire.

740
00:46:56,549 --> 00:47:00,009
If I can make a recommendation to folks, check out TryMaple.ai.

741
00:47:00,369 --> 00:47:07,249
It offers end-to-end encryption, so confidential client information remains private and isn't used to train AI models.

742
00:47:07,749 --> 00:47:08,409
Thanks for the value.

743
00:47:08,689 --> 00:47:10,629
Well, thank you for the value, NakamotoSex102.

744
00:47:11,509 --> 00:47:13,309
Interesting that you say you're looking to hire.

745
00:47:13,309 --> 00:47:15,589
if you would care to expand on why,

746
00:47:16,049 --> 00:47:19,989
why the use of AI tools has made you interested in expanding as a business.

747
00:47:21,049 --> 00:47:23,709
Because right now, obviously, the narrative is if you start using AI tools,

748
00:47:23,769 --> 00:47:24,389
you're not hiring.

749
00:47:25,049 --> 00:47:26,949
So you're just flipping the narrative right there.

750
00:47:27,029 --> 00:47:27,949
You understand that, right?

751
00:47:27,989 --> 00:47:29,429
I'd love if you wanted to expand on that at all.

752
00:47:29,789 --> 00:47:31,589
And thank you very much for the boost.

753
00:47:31,829 --> 00:47:32,429
Yes, hi.

754
00:47:32,609 --> 00:47:33,569
Really do appreciate it.

755
00:47:34,249 --> 00:47:36,429
Steve B. comes in with 3,000 sats.

756
00:47:36,589 --> 00:47:38,389
This is a tasty burger.

757
00:47:39,289 --> 00:47:42,849
AI is helping me learn welding and steam fitting.

758
00:47:42,849 --> 00:47:47,489
I can show pictures of my welds, and it mostly diagnoses issues and suggests fix.

759
00:47:48,389 --> 00:47:49,109
AI is helping me.

760
00:47:49,189 --> 00:47:49,929
Oh, that was a double.

761
00:47:50,189 --> 00:47:55,049
I'm a steam fitter apprentice, and AI is helping me learn these different and how to weld and fit pipes.

762
00:47:55,789 --> 00:47:56,829
So glad I found Twib.

763
00:47:56,869 --> 00:47:59,289
I'm a longtime Linux Unplugged listener and just connected the dots.

764
00:47:59,389 --> 00:48:00,569
Thanks for doing what you do.

765
00:48:00,929 --> 00:48:02,669
Holy crap, Steve B.

766
00:48:03,569 --> 00:48:06,049
Are you a first-timer?

767
00:48:06,389 --> 00:48:07,049
Hello, thank you.

768
00:48:09,169 --> 00:48:11,769
I hadn't thought about taking pictures and asking for tips to improve it.

769
00:48:11,769 --> 00:48:13,089
That could be great for learning how to solder.

770
00:48:13,989 --> 00:48:14,669
Huh, interesting.

771
00:48:14,829 --> 00:48:15,489
Thank you very much.

772
00:48:16,229 --> 00:48:16,909
Hey, there he is.

773
00:48:17,589 --> 00:48:22,069
Adversary17 is here with 19,847 sats.

774
00:48:22,289 --> 00:48:22,989
That's pretty funny.

775
00:48:23,469 --> 00:48:24,009
Next caller.

776
00:48:24,549 --> 00:48:26,509
Give him a better one than that soundboard guy.

777
00:48:27,009 --> 00:48:27,909
Yeah, there we go.

778
00:48:27,989 --> 00:48:28,309
Good one.

779
00:48:31,429 --> 00:48:34,369
Adversary says, I'm an IT system admin that also enjoys coding.

780
00:48:34,589 --> 00:48:36,289
LLMs have changed my job a little,

781
00:48:37,009 --> 00:48:39,849
but in that I don't have to spend as much time sorting through search results

782
00:48:39,849 --> 00:48:41,289
to find solutions to my problems.

783
00:48:41,769 --> 00:48:46,249
I am able to find things sooner and have answers that are more catered to the problem that I am having.

784
00:48:46,669 --> 00:48:51,429
For coding, I enjoy doing it, and I don't have a pressure to release anything faster than normal,

785
00:48:51,509 --> 00:48:53,629
so agentic coding hasn't really been a huge part of it yet.

786
00:48:54,069 --> 00:48:58,649
If there was a pressure to ship mostly functional, then he says, I think he got cut off, but he says he probably would.

787
00:48:59,749 --> 00:49:01,509
He says, thanks for adding the question to the show notes.

788
00:49:01,589 --> 00:49:01,989
Great addition.

789
00:49:02,109 --> 00:49:03,269
All right, I'll try to remember to do that again.

790
00:49:03,589 --> 00:49:04,209
Huge update.

791
00:49:04,949 --> 00:49:06,589
JB Mining Pool update coming soon.

792
00:49:09,049 --> 00:49:11,269
Chris, contact me to discuss details.

793
00:49:11,269 --> 00:49:14,329
right I am back now I will try to I have not forgotten

794
00:49:14,329 --> 00:49:18,049
hold on a second hold on a second hold on

795
00:49:18,049 --> 00:49:24,029
I just I gotta take a break a break

796
00:49:24,029 --> 00:49:28,549
I know there's a lot to do there's a lot to do right now

797
00:49:28,549 --> 00:49:33,849
kind of still running on fumes but excited about a JB mining pool very much so

798
00:49:33,849 --> 00:49:37,589
very much so so we'll circle back and then we'll get the word out you all know I want to do it

799
00:49:37,949 --> 00:49:39,169
Thank you very much, adversaries.

800
00:49:39,229 --> 00:49:40,469
It's always nice to hear from you.

801
00:49:40,709 --> 00:49:41,669
Appreciate you very much.

802
00:49:41,889 --> 00:49:42,949
Well, I'll be dipped.

803
00:49:43,769 --> 00:49:47,589
Our next boost comes in from Boba with 4,444 sats.

804
00:49:48,589 --> 00:49:52,789
I've been wondering how on earth these institutions have been buying tens of thousands of actual Bitcoin

805
00:49:52,789 --> 00:49:56,249
when only a finite amount can be mined each day.

806
00:49:56,769 --> 00:49:58,429
It can't all be OTC from exchanges.

807
00:49:58,629 --> 00:50:01,749
I imagine it had to be a backroom suite deals that you never heard about.

808
00:50:01,929 --> 00:50:02,629
Well, go figure.

809
00:50:03,089 --> 00:50:05,589
All the more reason to keep stacking into self-custody.

810
00:50:05,589 --> 00:50:10,769
When the rule makers can change the rules they follow on a whim, it negates the incentive to participate.

811
00:50:11,469 --> 00:50:16,509
I work in manufacturing and our company has softly mandated that all supervisors and leaders must use AI daily.

812
00:50:17,029 --> 00:50:20,249
I see this more as crowdsourcing effort to yield innovation.

813
00:50:20,889 --> 00:50:27,669
AI may dissolve some positions, but it'll be a minute before that actually happens and has any sustainable effect on the markets, in my opinion.

814
00:50:28,129 --> 00:50:28,769
Thank you, Boba.

815
00:50:29,429 --> 00:50:30,809
Interesting field report there, too.

816
00:50:30,809 --> 00:50:35,929
And, yeah, you know, they're buying and selling and making deals with each other on the Bitcoin that we don't get access to.

817
00:50:36,089 --> 00:50:40,809
But on the long-term scale, you just stack and hold sats and be grateful to scare sats that they can't print more of.

818
00:50:40,849 --> 00:50:43,469
Could you imagine if this was one of the cryptocurrencies where they could?

819
00:50:45,029 --> 00:50:45,949
Something else, man.

820
00:50:46,549 --> 00:50:47,109
Thank you, Bubba.

821
00:50:47,649 --> 00:50:48,189
Keep me posted.

822
00:50:49,049 --> 00:50:50,229
I like this next one.

823
00:50:50,409 --> 00:50:51,109
This is really good.

824
00:50:52,109 --> 00:50:53,249
Brewgator comes in.

825
00:50:53,429 --> 00:50:54,729
Just pump the brakes right there.

826
00:50:54,929 --> 00:50:58,029
With 11,101 sats.

827
00:51:00,809 --> 00:51:12,149
I'm a software engineer at IBM, and there's been a recent push for us to start using what is essentially an internal clone of CloudCode as a coding buddy.

828
00:51:12,649 --> 00:51:19,149
My team has mainly been using it heavily to help speed our code review process, which has really been our biggest bottleneck.

829
00:51:19,149 --> 00:51:22,829
That said, everything we do is still human-generated and human-gated.

830
00:51:23,249 --> 00:51:25,109
Oh, human-gated, not generated.

831
00:51:25,209 --> 00:51:27,089
As with most new tools, the team is split.

832
00:51:27,089 --> 00:51:33,509
About half are admittedly against or adamantly against using it, while the other half, well, maybe they rely on it a bit too much.

833
00:51:34,129 --> 00:51:35,209
And then he got cut off there a bit.

834
00:51:35,289 --> 00:51:38,129
But I think it sounds like it's sort of a mid-tier impact there.

835
00:51:38,209 --> 00:51:42,449
And I'd love any, Brugate, a great, great username, by the way, would love any additional follow-up.

836
00:51:43,069 --> 00:51:45,449
Sounds like it's sort of a mixed bag there at the IBM division.

837
00:51:45,529 --> 00:51:47,729
But interesting to hear from that side of the pond.

838
00:51:47,829 --> 00:51:48,549
Thank you very much.

839
00:51:49,509 --> 00:51:52,529
Magnolia Mayhem's back with 4,682 sats.

840
00:51:52,669 --> 00:51:53,949
The traders love the vol.

841
00:51:53,949 --> 00:51:57,789
Have we been building adult daycares for the last few decades?

842
00:51:58,029 --> 00:51:58,609
Hell yes.

843
00:51:58,749 --> 00:52:04,089
I've been everything from a security guard to a chicken farmer to a military engineer to a mailman.

844
00:52:04,349 --> 00:52:10,009
One thing I have learned over the last couple of decades is that we created a whole virtual class to the workforce.

845
00:52:10,629 --> 00:52:16,429
A class of people who aren't actually accomplishing anything but just signing off on things that other people did.

846
00:52:16,509 --> 00:52:23,449
The scary part is this tumor has become so entwined with the tissue of our society that removing it risks bleeding us out.

847
00:52:23,449 --> 00:52:32,169
what's the social equivalent of immunotherapy yeah i kind of feel that way too having worked

848
00:52:32,169 --> 00:52:36,569
at various different places i think some of this ai job fear is that people are realizing that these

849
00:52:36,569 --> 00:52:41,709
jobs are just totally worthless daycare jobs savage magnolia appreciate hearing from you

850
00:52:41,709 --> 00:52:50,229
it's good it's a good take whoo clarkians here with 5 100 sats let's go for the love that is

851
00:52:50,229 --> 00:52:55,449
all is holy. Please read the actual BIP. Lightning would not be affected. Start with BIP110.org.

852
00:52:55,789 --> 00:53:01,289
It took me 10 seconds to look this up. I could go on, but I haven't seen any technical debates

853
00:53:01,289 --> 00:53:05,989
happening. All right. So I will follow up Clarkian in the latter half of the show in the update

854
00:53:05,989 --> 00:53:10,649
section with how BIP110 negatively impacts Lightning. I'm not sure why you didn't see it

855
00:53:10,649 --> 00:53:17,669
if you did the research, but I'll help you. Magnolia5000, okay, is here with 2,341 sats.

856
00:53:17,669 --> 00:53:18,789
All right.

857
00:53:19,109 --> 00:53:19,709
Make it so.

858
00:53:20,029 --> 00:53:20,589
Have we been?

859
00:53:20,649 --> 00:53:21,569
Oh, I see.

860
00:53:21,589 --> 00:53:22,349
You had a dupe boost.

861
00:53:22,749 --> 00:53:23,669
Oh, so you didn't get full credit.

862
00:53:23,769 --> 00:53:25,269
Well, I'll toss another 2K in there.

863
00:53:25,489 --> 00:53:25,749
All right.

864
00:53:25,829 --> 00:53:26,369
Thank you, Magnolia.

865
00:53:26,449 --> 00:53:27,089
Appreciate you, sir.

866
00:53:27,489 --> 00:53:28,209
Sorry you had trouble there.

867
00:53:29,249 --> 00:53:31,329
JPEG18 is here with 2,200 sats.

868
00:53:31,449 --> 00:53:32,709
Coming in hot with the boost.

869
00:53:32,729 --> 00:53:34,089
No message, just value, though.

870
00:53:34,109 --> 00:53:35,269
Appreciate that very much.

871
00:53:36,169 --> 00:53:37,829
OneDullGeek is here with 2,000 sats.

872
00:53:37,949 --> 00:53:40,809
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

873
00:53:41,289 --> 00:53:44,489
This is an overly terse follow-up from my previous cutoff boost.

874
00:53:45,009 --> 00:53:45,829
Okay, DullGeek.

875
00:53:46,549 --> 00:53:49,629
Whichever may BIP-110 eventually be resolved, the risk of what?

876
00:53:49,949 --> 00:53:50,169
Okay.

877
00:53:50,809 --> 00:53:53,589
The risk of a minority forcing their opinion on Bitcoin doesn't change.

878
00:53:53,669 --> 00:53:55,049
Consider, the risk exists today.

879
00:53:55,609 --> 00:53:57,229
It's what BIP-110 is trying to exploit.

880
00:53:57,329 --> 00:53:59,589
The opposition BIP-110 is not to change anything.

881
00:53:59,729 --> 00:54:02,089
If nothing changes, then the risk still exists.

882
00:54:02,609 --> 00:54:06,049
Meanwhile, I continue to run BIP-110, and I think it does mitigate some risk to Bitcoin.

883
00:54:06,169 --> 00:54:07,709
I can barely understand what you're saying, man.

884
00:54:08,549 --> 00:54:10,589
But I will follow up with BIP-110 later in the show.

885
00:54:11,249 --> 00:54:14,129
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

886
00:54:14,129 --> 00:54:18,729
Gene Bean's back with a row of ducks, two rows of ducks, actually.

887
00:54:24,209 --> 00:54:26,529
Yes, sir! Sirty, sir, sir, sir!

888
00:54:26,709 --> 00:54:29,249
I think AI is about to impact my job in a big way.

889
00:54:29,369 --> 00:54:35,449
My employer is working on ways that let us use AI that doesn't endanger what we make and our intellectual property.

890
00:54:35,569 --> 00:54:39,369
And once it's in place, it's very clearly going to be a force multiplier for productivity.

891
00:54:39,889 --> 00:54:43,309
There is plenty, as I do as an SRE, that robotics can do way faster,

892
00:54:43,769 --> 00:54:45,449
freeing me up for the interesting stuff.

893
00:54:46,069 --> 00:54:50,189
AI's ability to simultaneously analyze vast amounts of data-defined correlations

894
00:54:50,189 --> 00:54:54,149
is going to enable higher quality service and better meantime resolution.

895
00:54:54,729 --> 00:54:57,049
When dealing with data from large distributed environments

896
00:54:57,049 --> 00:54:59,649
that can also include a lot of UDP multicast,

897
00:54:59,929 --> 00:55:01,849
there's no way a human can see the whole picture,

898
00:55:02,209 --> 00:55:03,889
in the same way that maybe a robot could.

899
00:55:04,209 --> 00:55:07,249
That said, plenty of human work is now and will continue to be needed.

900
00:55:07,629 --> 00:55:09,249
It'll just be more efficient and scalable.

901
00:55:09,869 --> 00:55:10,609
That's good, Gene.

902
00:55:10,749 --> 00:55:14,569
For route planning, oh, yeah, just get an agent for your route planning.

903
00:55:14,669 --> 00:55:16,789
I did, by the way, Gene, get an agent for route planning.

904
00:55:16,789 --> 00:55:20,969
And something that's kind of worth doing is you can connect them to.

905
00:55:21,025 --> 00:55:28,125
With a free developer account, you can connect them to the TomTom API, which is really good and has tons of information.

906
00:55:28,125 --> 00:55:34,165
And you can generate maps and traffic stuff and get route information and EV routing information, everything.

907
00:55:34,785 --> 00:55:38,985
So tying the agent up to the TomTom API was so great if you road trip.

908
00:55:39,585 --> 00:55:41,725
Thank you, Gene. Really good to hear from you. Appreciate that much.

909
00:55:42,405 --> 00:55:43,565
Aliana's here with 5,000.

910
00:55:43,665 --> 00:55:45,725
Put some macaroni and cheese on there, too.

911
00:55:45,865 --> 00:55:50,265
Is AI impacting my job as a database engineer for a huge enterprise software?

912
00:55:50,625 --> 00:55:50,905
Yes.

913
00:55:51,025 --> 00:55:54,125
Yes, it makes me slowly but surely more productive.

914
00:55:54,525 --> 00:55:57,045
Maybe realistically a 5% improvement so far,

915
00:55:57,165 --> 00:55:59,185
but it is going to impact my personal future

916
00:55:59,185 --> 00:56:00,645
as my skills become less valuable.

917
00:56:01,005 --> 00:56:02,705
Oh well, at least society overall would benefit

918
00:56:02,705 --> 00:56:04,125
from these technological investments.

919
00:56:04,705 --> 00:56:05,805
Yeah, maybe we do get there,

920
00:56:05,885 --> 00:56:09,385
but a 5% improvement to your workday right now

921
00:56:09,385 --> 00:56:10,985
seems kind of nice.

922
00:56:11,705 --> 00:56:13,085
And maybe it gets to a point

923
00:56:13,085 --> 00:56:14,545
where you can focus on something else entirely.

924
00:56:14,625 --> 00:56:15,725
I'm curious if you think it goes there.

925
00:56:16,465 --> 00:56:17,985
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

926
00:56:17,985 --> 00:56:19,685
That's 2,222 sats.

927
00:56:21,025 --> 00:56:22,985
Thanks for your insights on BIP110.

928
00:56:23,245 --> 00:56:26,745
It's interesting to watch the controversial topics get evaluated by Bitcoin adopters.

929
00:56:26,865 --> 00:56:31,525
Overall, I think the show, I think it is a show of strength for the network.

930
00:56:31,725 --> 00:56:31,845
Yeah.

931
00:56:32,505 --> 00:56:32,745
Yeah.

932
00:56:33,265 --> 00:56:34,985
BIP10 is a little rushed, right?

933
00:56:35,625 --> 00:56:40,065
It's a pretty big change and three months would be one of the shortest review processes ever.

934
00:56:40,185 --> 00:56:42,985
But when you run your own node, you don't really have to wait for consensus.

935
00:56:43,845 --> 00:56:47,885
KiwiBitcoin guides here with 9,100 and 34 sats.

936
00:56:48,025 --> 00:56:48,625
Yes, hi.

937
00:56:49,045 --> 00:56:50,805
Has AI affected my job?

938
00:56:51,025 --> 00:56:52,625
Yes, in a positive way.

939
00:56:52,725 --> 00:56:55,925
I'm self-employed and take care of clients' websites and e-commerce infrastructure.

940
00:56:56,945 --> 00:56:59,345
AI allows me to do way more than before.

941
00:56:59,465 --> 00:57:04,825
As an example, in testing, I use AI to write scripts for automation, and it saves me hours each time.

942
00:57:05,245 --> 00:57:08,605
AI also helps me troubleshoot issues on tools that I don't have as much experience with.

943
00:57:08,965 --> 00:57:10,125
And this is just the beginning.

944
00:57:10,265 --> 00:57:12,205
I haven't even gone deep into agent world yet.

945
00:57:12,585 --> 00:57:15,425
AI is going to disrupt and create opportunities at the same time.

946
00:57:15,945 --> 00:57:17,285
Here's a question for you and Wes.

947
00:57:17,285 --> 00:57:18,925
What is NixBitcoin?

948
00:57:19,025 --> 00:57:20,525
I hear you talk about Nix on LUB.

949
00:57:20,905 --> 00:57:23,505
And as I understand it, Nix is a distro, but maybe it's not.

950
00:57:23,845 --> 00:57:25,705
And how does Nix Bitcoin fit in?

951
00:57:25,965 --> 00:57:27,765
Is it a node implementation or not?

952
00:57:27,965 --> 00:57:28,805
Can you help me with this?

953
00:57:29,785 --> 00:57:33,565
Okay, so he has a question about getting open source believers into Bitcoin.

954
00:57:33,645 --> 00:57:34,885
I'll talk more about that later in the show.

955
00:57:35,385 --> 00:57:40,005
Nix Bitcoin is something that you can lay on top of Nix to turn it into a node.

956
00:57:40,245 --> 00:57:41,325
Nix is a package manager.

957
00:57:41,465 --> 00:57:42,405
There is also Nix OS.

958
00:57:43,005 --> 00:57:46,725
I'm not going to get too far into this right now because we're just going to do an episode

959
00:57:46,725 --> 00:57:47,765
on this in the future.

960
00:57:47,765 --> 00:57:57,105
But think of it as you could plug in a module to a NIC system and that module turns it into a Bitcoin node with the configuration and software necessary.

961
00:57:57,565 --> 00:58:00,185
And we'll come back to that topic in the future.

962
00:58:00,985 --> 00:58:03,465
Producer Jeff's here with 6,666 sets.

963
00:58:03,765 --> 00:58:05,425
Why you got to put numbers and letters together?

964
00:58:05,745 --> 00:58:06,985
Why can't you just go yourself?

965
00:58:07,705 --> 00:58:12,265
AI has entered the chat at work and it's the most common complaint from our customers.

966
00:58:12,725 --> 00:58:14,025
They want to speak to a human.

967
00:58:14,605 --> 00:58:17,905
AI is also being used to create routes for us, and it's been abysmal.

968
00:58:18,485 --> 00:58:21,805
These things are small, but the company I work for has also been pushing AI and other products,

969
00:58:21,905 --> 00:58:24,625
taking human resources away from systems which desperately need attention.

970
00:58:25,085 --> 00:58:29,045
It bites because we know these tools can be used to help, but it's only causing problems right now.

971
00:58:29,465 --> 00:58:32,165
Yeah, it seems like implementation is going to be the make or break it.

972
00:58:32,165 --> 00:58:38,105
You know, I was dealing with SpaceX support because I had to replace a Starlink terminal,

973
00:58:38,665 --> 00:58:40,825
and you had to go through Grok.

974
00:58:41,745 --> 00:58:48,725
There's no getting to a ticket where you eventually, like 24 hours later, get a human response without going through Grok.

975
00:58:49,625 --> 00:58:54,805
And it's like a special Spock edition that's like tuned for SpaceX and Starlink.

976
00:58:55,445 --> 00:58:58,505
And it was able to make changes to my account.

977
00:58:58,605 --> 00:59:03,745
And it was able to add and remove devices from my account and check on status of shipping products and whatnot.

978
00:59:04,285 --> 00:59:07,745
So it was useful, but I had that initial like, oh, I just want to talk to a human.

979
00:59:07,745 --> 00:59:12,585
when I realized the chat bot was actually able to take action against my account and give me

980
00:59:12,585 --> 00:59:17,125
information I kind of eased up and I used it and then I inevitably did I inevitably did have to

981
00:59:17,125 --> 00:59:21,785
create a ticket and a human had to fix it but the thing that was nice about that experience

982
00:59:21,785 --> 00:59:26,585
was Grok gave a great summarization of everything we worked through when I gave it like product

983
00:59:26,585 --> 00:59:31,105
numbers and serial numbers and account information it attached all of it really nicely and cleanly

984
00:59:31,105 --> 00:59:36,225
to the support ticket so when the human did take over Grok kind of left them with everything they

985
00:59:36,225 --> 00:59:40,625
needed to know. But it just seems like you could get that so wrong. And if it's an emergency,

986
00:59:41,445 --> 00:59:44,785
right, I had a couple of days I could chill. I wasn't in a huge rush.

987
00:59:45,545 --> 00:59:49,845
Woo, it's a different story if you're in a rush. Thank you, PJ. Miss you already. It's good to see

988
00:59:49,845 --> 00:59:55,585
you. SK8K is here with 12,345 sets. That is a Spaceballs boost.

989
00:59:55,585 --> 00:59:59,845
So the combination is one, two, three, four, five.

990
01:00:00,025 --> 01:00:00,345
Yes.

991
01:00:00,465 --> 01:00:02,805
That's amazing. I've got the same combination on my luggage.

992
01:00:02,805 --> 01:00:04,765
I own a tavern and pizzeria.

993
01:00:05,065 --> 01:00:07,025
AI isn't replacing me or my staff.

994
01:00:07,145 --> 01:00:10,685
In fact, I could get behind the argument that it increases future job potential.

995
01:00:11,265 --> 01:00:13,505
I use it daily to help fine-tune social media posts,

996
01:00:13,645 --> 01:00:16,505
brainstorm pizza and cocktail features, and even write recipes,

997
01:00:16,985 --> 01:00:21,285
all of which add to my productivity, my reach, and the growth of my business.

998
01:00:21,905 --> 01:00:24,985
Oh, well, interesting, SK. Thank you very much.

999
01:00:25,665 --> 01:00:27,345
That's very good insight right there.

1000
01:00:27,345 --> 01:00:32,945
Gene Bean boosted in saying with 2,267 sats saying he misses the show during the scale.

1001
01:00:33,105 --> 01:00:33,605
Thank you, Gene Bean.

1002
01:00:33,665 --> 01:00:34,425
We missed you at scale.

1003
01:00:35,225 --> 01:00:38,285
Jay Moon came in with 3,333 sats.

1004
01:00:38,745 --> 01:00:39,525
I like you.

1005
01:00:39,885 --> 01:00:40,945
You're a hot ticket.

1006
01:00:41,225 --> 01:00:45,165
The Monero wallet, CakePay, has implemented lightning support.

1007
01:00:45,805 --> 01:00:48,625
It's worth a read on how they did it with self-custody concerns in mind.

1008
01:00:48,725 --> 01:00:51,185
You can find it at blog.cakewallet.com.

1009
01:00:51,685 --> 01:00:52,645
I saw that.

1010
01:00:52,705 --> 01:00:53,825
I haven't had a chance to read that yet.

1011
01:00:53,845 --> 01:00:54,525
I'm very interested.

1012
01:00:54,525 --> 01:00:57,385
I'm really, really impressed they got lightning support in a self-custody way.

1013
01:00:58,405 --> 01:00:59,245
I will read up on that.

1014
01:00:59,985 --> 01:01:00,825
Thank you for that boost.

1015
01:01:01,405 --> 01:01:05,345
Thank you, everyone who boosted in, including those of you who boosted below the 2000s cutoff for time.

1016
01:01:05,865 --> 01:01:10,545
In fact, I see WTF and others in here also chimed in on the AI topic.

1017
01:01:11,325 --> 01:01:19,725
And WTF struck me because they're a teacher, and they're using AI to help them just save time and spend more time on focusing on the students.

1018
01:01:20,565 --> 01:01:21,505
There's a lot in here.

1019
01:01:21,505 --> 01:01:31,205
And I guess what I'm surprised by is that with the exception of PJ, which is an implementation issue, these were all very positive impacts.

1020
01:01:31,465 --> 01:01:35,245
And some of you even said that AI may cause additional hiring.

1021
01:01:35,885 --> 01:01:40,145
So did you expect this to be such a 180 from what the narrative is out there?

1022
01:01:40,245 --> 01:01:41,925
I thought we'd hear some of this.

1023
01:01:41,985 --> 01:01:43,065
I kind of thought it'd be mixed.

1024
01:01:43,665 --> 01:01:46,385
I really thought that's, you know, probably going to get half and half.

1025
01:01:47,325 --> 01:01:48,885
We did not get a half and half.

1026
01:01:49,645 --> 01:01:50,085
Wow.

1027
01:01:50,085 --> 01:01:55,985
If anybody has any extra expanding or details from your place of work, I would please do.

1028
01:01:56,065 --> 01:02:04,725
This is very educational and very interesting and also will reflect even more on my coverage from my trip to scale that I'm going to get to in just a moment.

1029
01:02:05,405 --> 01:02:08,105
In fact, that's really interesting when I think of that.

1030
01:02:08,545 --> 01:02:09,405
Okay, here's where we're at.

1031
01:02:09,925 --> 01:02:11,885
Thank you everyone who did support the show with a boost.

1032
01:02:11,965 --> 01:02:13,465
This is a value for value production.

1033
01:02:13,905 --> 01:02:14,985
There's no advertiser here.

1034
01:02:15,585 --> 01:02:22,085
I'm spending my time, my energy, and my resources, my proof of work producing a free show for you every week that tries to focus on the signal.

1035
01:02:22,665 --> 01:02:24,985
And then you keep it going with a boost or a membership.

1036
01:02:25,445 --> 01:02:30,705
And we had 40 of you stream sats as you listen, stacked 58,541 sats.

1037
01:02:30,825 --> 01:02:31,925
That is pretty good.

1038
01:02:31,925 --> 01:02:47,525
Then when you combine that with everybody who sent in a boost above and below 2000 sats, our grand total for this week, which is really nice to return to, I have to say thank you, everyone, is 477,698 sats.

1039
01:02:52,805 --> 01:02:54,765
That is pretty fantastic.

1040
01:02:54,985 --> 01:02:56,085
We really do appreciate it.

1041
01:02:56,165 --> 01:02:57,645
Well, when I say we, it's me.

1042
01:02:58,385 --> 01:02:59,405
It's just an old habit.

1043
01:02:59,405 --> 01:03:03,385
And if you want to support the show with a boost, Fountain makes it probably the easiest.

1044
01:03:04,205 --> 01:03:09,845
There's a lot of options, including AlbiHub, which allows you to run a bunch of different apps, including just using the podcast index.

1045
01:03:10,265 --> 01:03:13,405
Of course, you can also become a member through Fountain or through Jupyter.Party.

1046
01:03:14,205 --> 01:03:16,265
Keeps the show going, keeps me focused on you.

1047
01:03:16,685 --> 01:03:17,625
You become the customer.

1048
01:03:18,185 --> 01:03:19,485
And I think you know how that works.

1049
01:03:29,405 --> 01:03:32,945
Well, let's talk a little bit about Bitcoin observations

1050
01:03:32,945 --> 01:03:35,365
on my trip to scale and planet Nix.

1051
01:03:36,105 --> 01:03:39,705
Wes and I left early Monday after we recorded Linux Unplugged.

1052
01:03:39,765 --> 01:03:41,185
It took a couple of days to drive down.

1053
01:03:41,285 --> 01:03:42,785
We met up with producer Jeff on the way

1054
01:03:42,785 --> 01:03:44,885
and had dinner with him and his lovely lady.

1055
01:03:45,385 --> 01:03:47,645
It was a smooth ride the whole way.

1056
01:03:47,885 --> 01:03:59,285
The easiest road trip I ever had down the I corridor which anybody that knows me for a while knows that I think are some of the worst drivers in the country Our buddy Brent joined us at our Airbnb in Pasadena

1057
01:03:59,285 --> 01:04:03,705
and it was great. The first two days we were down there while I was gone were Planet Nick. So like

1058
01:04:03,705 --> 01:04:08,845
the Wednesday that I didn't have an episode last week, we were really just hitting the ground and

1059
01:04:08,845 --> 01:04:12,025
kind of getting things sorted and starting our Planet Nick's coverage. And it was just nothing

1060
01:04:12,025 --> 01:04:17,465
but Nick's. Two days of really intense builders, meeting people that are creating the stuff a lot

1061
01:04:17,465 --> 01:04:22,605
of us use. Things I can't talk about because they have to get releases, but stuff that blow your

1062
01:04:22,605 --> 01:04:27,905
mind. In a general sense, I met nine people from Anthropic alone solving problems at scale that

1063
01:04:27,905 --> 01:04:33,205
are such bonkers in size that you wouldn't think the stuff they're having to fix would be a problem.

1064
01:04:33,485 --> 01:04:38,205
But it's just the tiniest little issues and delays become massive problems at their scale.

1065
01:04:38,805 --> 01:04:43,465
Really interesting. And Friday through Sunday, that's all scale. That's the Southern California

1066
01:04:43,465 --> 01:04:50,285
Linux Expo. Planet Nix is a subtract. It wraps up. And this is really the largest community-run

1067
01:04:50,285 --> 01:04:55,985
open source event in North America. So I'm attending a niche of like 600 people. And then

1068
01:04:55,985 --> 01:05:00,765
a couple of days later, it's like 5,000, 6,000 people from all over the country. So you really

1069
01:05:00,765 --> 01:05:07,545
get two different niches of a wider ecosystem at the same venue. It's fantastic from a coverage

1070
01:05:07,545 --> 01:05:12,205
standpoint. But also, it's very powerful for a few observations that I want to share with you.

1071
01:05:12,205 --> 01:05:17,265
And I'm going to save my biggest takeaway for last, but my first observation I think will not be a shocker to you.

1072
01:05:17,625 --> 01:05:19,385
And this is related to one of the questions we got in the booth.

1073
01:05:20,145 --> 01:05:27,765
There is zero Bitcoin representation, mindshare, companies, talks, anything at North America's largest community-run open source event.

1074
01:05:28,485 --> 01:05:31,845
We are still two different worlds, and we are worlds apart.

1075
01:05:32,565 --> 01:05:39,685
I blame a lot of this on the affinity scamming that altcoins have enjoyed by getting themselves in the same category as Bitcoin.

1076
01:05:39,685 --> 01:05:42,485
and it has deeply tarnished Bitcoin's brand

1077
01:05:42,485 --> 01:05:43,725
to the average tech nerd.

1078
01:05:44,505 --> 01:05:46,105
And when I say the average tech nerd,

1079
01:05:46,265 --> 01:05:47,645
I don't mean you listening to this.

1080
01:05:47,765 --> 01:05:50,605
I mean the tech nerd that ignores macro news.

1081
01:05:51,485 --> 01:05:53,365
Their form of investing is the Robinhood app.

1082
01:05:54,085 --> 01:05:55,805
Frankly, the affluent pleb

1083
01:05:55,805 --> 01:05:57,665
who just makes a lot of money at a tech job.

1084
01:05:58,825 --> 01:06:00,565
They just, it's not even on their radar

1085
01:06:00,565 --> 01:06:02,985
and that's a lot of who's attending these events.

1086
01:06:03,245 --> 01:06:04,645
Not all of them, but a lot of them.

1087
01:06:04,685 --> 01:06:05,725
There are people there and then they come,

1088
01:06:05,725 --> 01:06:07,325
oh Chris, hey, I love this week in Bitcoin.

1089
01:06:08,005 --> 01:06:09,545
Yeah, I've had Bitcoin for three years.

1090
01:06:09,545 --> 01:06:14,425
It's great. You know, I get a lot of that. So there's people there, but it's nothing at the event.

1091
01:06:15,405 --> 01:06:19,265
I have to say, too, boy, oh, boy, I know I mentioned them in the How You Can Support the

1092
01:06:19,265 --> 01:06:25,605
show. The Bitcoin company comes in clutch, as my kids would say. It's really a power combo on a

1093
01:06:25,605 --> 01:06:32,265
road trip because they have gift cards for Airbnb and Instacart. And so sometimes we're booking while

1094
01:06:32,265 --> 01:06:35,805
we're on the road because we're not sure when we're going to stop for the night. So you can go

1095
01:06:35,805 --> 01:06:40,625
from sats to gift card in seconds on your phone, you can book the Airbnb, then you can order an

1096
01:06:40,625 --> 01:06:45,305
Instacart order that arrives shortly after you get to the Airbnb. Now, it's not the cheapest way

1097
01:06:45,305 --> 01:06:52,545
to do it every time, but there are times where it just absolutely is a lifesaver. So that is,

1098
01:06:52,845 --> 01:06:56,385
and the fact that it all works on the phone and that you can use Firefox and the Albi extension,

1099
01:06:56,485 --> 01:07:03,765
all of that, it's really great. So that was very useful. And some of the support can be directly

1100
01:07:03,765 --> 01:07:09,665
attributed to us being able to do Airbnbs and eat on the way and make the coverage possible.

1101
01:07:09,765 --> 01:07:16,745
So that's also really great. Then there was this observation, and I think maybe this is the one

1102
01:07:16,745 --> 01:07:22,925
that I think is the most important. And this is the one I went in not really knowing what to expect.

1103
01:07:23,845 --> 01:07:30,105
Everyone we met, especially at Planet Nix, people that we knew or met that are building things,

1104
01:07:30,105 --> 01:07:37,105
are so much further and deeper into using AI tech than even I am or what I expected them to be.

1105
01:07:37,665 --> 01:07:39,285
I wasn't sure what I would walk into.

1106
01:07:39,405 --> 01:07:42,105
You know, AI technology is kind of controversial in the Linux community.

1107
01:07:42,865 --> 01:07:46,585
There's a lot of negative sentiment in the Linux community around AI.

1108
01:07:47,105 --> 01:07:51,625
But I feel like it's important to me to relay to you that what I observed

1109
01:07:51,625 --> 01:07:55,025
with no emotion attached, no judgment attached to it,

1110
01:07:55,025 --> 01:07:59,585
but what I want to relay to you is that the signal was absolutely rock solid clear.

1111
01:08:00,105 --> 01:08:08,665
The serious people, the smartest people I know that build the most consequential things I know that were at these events are way beyond the debate around AI.

1112
01:08:08,825 --> 01:08:15,625
And if they should use it, it's power usage, IP issues, way beyond that phase.

1113
01:08:16,305 --> 01:08:20,405
The movers and shakers are already building with AI technology right now.

1114
01:08:20,405 --> 01:08:26,825
And they have left the folks behind that are debating these other issues so hard they don't even know it.

1115
01:08:26,825 --> 01:08:29,905
I cannot relay some of the things I saw,

1116
01:08:30,345 --> 01:08:33,765
but that observation is as close as I can tell you.

1117
01:08:33,885 --> 01:08:36,725
And it's just the people that we're questioning

1118
01:08:36,725 --> 01:08:38,605
where if we're going to go, where it's going to go,

1119
01:08:38,685 --> 01:08:39,865
should we use it, should we not use it,

1120
01:08:39,885 --> 01:08:41,125
are the people that have the luxury

1121
01:08:41,125 --> 01:08:42,985
of sitting around on the sidelines.

1122
01:08:42,985 --> 01:08:45,885
And the people that are in the thick of things,

1123
01:08:45,985 --> 01:08:47,725
building things, creating things,

1124
01:08:48,005 --> 01:08:51,185
I saw people that are getting Linux support on hardware

1125
01:08:51,185 --> 01:08:53,625
that's never had Linux support before

1126
01:08:53,625 --> 01:08:55,165
because they have come up with a way

1127
01:08:55,165 --> 01:08:59,805
to get agents to agentically control the physical hardware devices

1128
01:08:59,805 --> 01:09:03,805
so they can flip on LEDs and buttons and press things

1129
01:09:03,805 --> 01:09:05,705
and trigger things and reset things

1130
01:09:05,705 --> 01:09:09,645
to, over time, have the agents work away

1131
01:09:09,645 --> 01:09:12,445
at esoteric ARM and RISC architectures

1132
01:09:12,445 --> 01:09:15,545
to slowly but surely, bit by bit,

1133
01:09:15,945 --> 01:09:17,545
build Linux support for this hardware

1134
01:09:17,545 --> 01:09:19,405
that's never been possible before.

1135
01:09:19,985 --> 01:09:21,305
And they're doing it right now.

1136
01:09:21,485 --> 01:09:23,465
And they're creating open source code with it.

1137
01:09:23,465 --> 01:09:25,725
these people are so far beyond the debate.

1138
01:09:25,845 --> 01:09:29,605
It's not even the same class of people.

1139
01:09:29,865 --> 01:09:33,405
It was shocking because then you would go over to the larger event

1140
01:09:33,405 --> 01:09:36,125
and you'd have a lot of moralizing and a lot of discussions of,

1141
01:09:36,285 --> 01:09:37,145
oh, should we or should we not?

1142
01:09:37,605 --> 01:09:40,505
And it was this just striking contrast.

1143
01:09:41,625 --> 01:09:42,625
Okay, so then Bitcoin stuff.

1144
01:09:42,925 --> 01:09:46,305
While I'm at it, I had a chance to chat with somebody from a real estate team

1145
01:09:46,305 --> 01:09:49,865
in the Pasadena area who started home sales,

1146
01:09:50,145 --> 01:09:51,985
negotiating home sales in Bitcoin in 2025,

1147
01:09:51,985 --> 01:09:54,825
and they plan to ramp it up in the local area in 2026.

1148
01:09:55,705 --> 01:09:56,985
Now, this is a quick visit,

1149
01:09:57,105 --> 01:09:59,465
but I did look up the Los Angeles Bitcoin meetup group

1150
01:09:59,465 --> 01:10:03,605
and it has 1,671 members.

1151
01:10:04,185 --> 01:10:05,625
They didn't have an event while I was in the area,

1152
01:10:05,685 --> 01:10:07,225
but I thought that was pretty impressive.

1153
01:10:08,045 --> 01:10:12,065
So the Bitcoin scene is there and active,

1154
01:10:12,285 --> 01:10:14,445
but doesn't really seem to be front of mind

1155
01:10:14,445 --> 01:10:16,985
to the general tech crowd that was at scale.

1156
01:10:17,725 --> 01:10:19,685
I think that would be my sort of overall

1157
01:10:19,685 --> 01:10:22,265
high-level Bitcoin observation there.

1158
01:10:22,705 --> 01:10:23,605
But then when you dig around,

1159
01:10:23,685 --> 01:10:24,845
you find businesses taking it,

1160
01:10:24,905 --> 01:10:26,365
you find people experimenting with it,

1161
01:10:26,365 --> 01:10:27,605
you find people talking about it.

1162
01:10:28,045 --> 01:10:29,805
So it's not completely lost.

1163
01:10:29,805 --> 01:10:31,365
It's not a Bitcoin desert.

1164
01:10:31,845 --> 01:10:34,265
It just doesn't get any representation

1165
01:10:34,265 --> 01:10:37,885
at the largest North American open source event.

1166
01:10:38,665 --> 01:10:40,085
And that still disappoints me.

1167
01:10:41,685 --> 01:10:44,045
All right, let's talk a little bit more about BIP-110,

1168
01:10:44,245 --> 01:10:45,465
another request from the Boos.

1169
01:10:45,605 --> 01:10:47,365
First of all, let's start with what I consider

1170
01:10:47,365 --> 01:10:49,765
to be a reckless activation plan.

1171
01:10:50,445 --> 01:10:53,125
A 55% threshold is just way too low.

1172
01:10:53,405 --> 01:10:55,325
That is not a safe consensus threshold.

1173
01:10:55,545 --> 01:10:57,205
It's how you invite chain instability

1174
01:10:57,205 --> 01:10:58,945
and a reorg risk later on.

1175
01:10:59,025 --> 01:11:00,105
It's just the fact.

1176
01:11:01,165 --> 01:11:03,705
And even if that isn't a bar that can be cleared,

1177
01:11:03,945 --> 01:11:06,545
you're talking about a user-activated fork

1178
01:11:06,545 --> 01:11:08,065
with rather weak support,

1179
01:11:08,245 --> 01:11:09,725
likely minority hash power,

1180
01:11:09,945 --> 01:11:12,285
with weak economic backing as a result,

1181
01:11:12,805 --> 01:11:14,565
and then that becomes a chain

1182
01:11:14,565 --> 01:11:16,005
that is a lot easier to attack.

1183
01:11:16,765 --> 01:11:19,505
Those two risks right there should end the conversation.

1184
01:11:19,645 --> 01:11:23,225
And I don't understand why those two risks alone do not end the conversation.

1185
01:11:23,665 --> 01:11:29,425
If your activation path leads to weak or a vulnerable fork, you're not upgrading Bitcoin.

1186
01:11:29,625 --> 01:11:31,005
You're gambling with a fork.

1187
01:11:31,905 --> 01:11:33,845
Okay, so that right there should end the conversation.

1188
01:11:33,845 --> 01:11:37,105
If anybody has any practical sense on the issue.

1189
01:11:37,685 --> 01:11:43,005
My second problem with BIP 110 is we're crossing a line that Bitcoin should never cross.

1190
01:11:43,005 --> 01:12:07,345
We do not make previously valid coins unspendable. Once we cross that line, we're a shit coin. It's poison. And I remain very consistent on this point. While I was away, the former operator of Mt. Gox, Mark Karpelpolis or whatever his name is, put a proposal to fork Bitcoin to return nearly 80,000 coins that were stolen in Mt. Gox.

1191
01:12:07,345 --> 01:12:13,345
To be clear, I could get somewhere between 30 to 60 Bitcoin back if this fork were to happen, right?

1192
01:12:13,845 --> 01:12:19,465
Generational wealth for me and multiple families after me in my lineage, if this fork were to go through.

1193
01:12:19,705 --> 01:12:21,245
I am against that fork.

1194
01:12:22,185 --> 01:12:33,005
I against that fork It is I am consistent on this issue This is poison Third issue I have is it doesn solve the problem it claims to solve

1195
01:12:33,265 --> 01:12:35,085
It does not stop spam.

1196
01:12:35,485 --> 01:12:36,285
Look at the data.

1197
01:12:36,385 --> 01:12:37,785
I linked it in the last episode.

1198
01:12:38,545 --> 01:12:40,145
It doesn't solve the problem.

1199
01:12:40,505 --> 01:12:44,485
It could even make things worse, but I'll say that's a separate debate.

1200
01:12:45,085 --> 01:12:48,605
I think what you need to understand is the fees are low.

1201
01:12:49,085 --> 01:12:50,205
Transactions are clearing.

1202
01:12:50,985 --> 01:12:53,845
The chain is not full of child pornography.

1203
01:12:54,245 --> 01:13:04,805
These things, these emotional hot-button issues that BIP-110 proponents have used to convince us that we have to rush this thing through in a few months, now in just a few weeks, haven't played out.

1204
01:13:05,865 --> 01:13:11,245
BIP-110 asked Bitcoiners to accept a real consensus risk for a solution that doesn't completely solve the problem.

1205
01:13:11,305 --> 01:13:13,105
It's a weak activation threshold.

1206
01:13:13,285 --> 01:13:16,865
It would create a weak chain, and it doesn't solve the spam.

1207
01:13:16,865 --> 01:13:20,245
and it would be a massive hit to Bitcoin's credibility.

1208
01:13:21,045 --> 01:13:22,825
Now let's talk about the impact on Lightning.

1209
01:13:23,365 --> 01:13:25,325
On average, for legacy Lightning channels,

1210
01:13:25,425 --> 01:13:28,905
I don't really see a strong case that BIP-110 directly breaks them on day one.

1211
01:13:29,005 --> 01:13:31,205
I don't think it's really a problem initially for Lightning.

1212
01:13:31,885 --> 01:13:36,585
For Lightning as a system over time, though, there are some real negative issues.

1213
01:13:37,425 --> 01:13:39,245
Lightning operates, I'm sure you probably know this,

1214
01:13:39,245 --> 01:13:42,465
but just as a reminder, Lightning operates by having peers exchange

1215
01:13:42,465 --> 01:13:44,885
pre-signed commitment transactions.

1216
01:13:44,885 --> 01:13:49,545
And they can broadcast those via the blockchain to close a channel at any time.

1217
01:13:50,285 --> 01:13:56,965
So the risk is BIP-110 introduces new restrictions on script types and sizes,

1218
01:13:57,285 --> 01:14:01,565
such as limiting the taproot tree depth or certain op-if uses.

1219
01:14:02,065 --> 01:14:09,105
If the channel commitment transaction, or I guess the hash time locked contract, right, the HTLC,

1220
01:14:09,105 --> 01:14:18,985
If that was signed before BIP-110, but it violates these new rules that would go in effect with BIP-110, it makes it unbroadcastable.

1221
01:14:19,505 --> 01:14:26,345
So the consequence means that the funds in your channel get frozen for the duration of the BIP-110 activation, which is at least one year.

1222
01:14:27,105 --> 01:14:34,925
You would be unable to close the channel on-chain, which makes you vulnerable if your peer goes offline or tries to cheat or if you need those funds.

1223
01:14:34,925 --> 01:14:50,185
Lightning would also be really screwed if this 55% miner threshold was how we activated and we had a weak miner-activated or weak user-activated software.

1224
01:14:50,625 --> 01:14:58,305
If the network splits between BIP-110 and non-BIP-110 Bitcoin chains, how do you think Lightning nodes deal with that?

1225
01:14:58,805 --> 01:15:01,305
Do they have code to know how to deal with that today?

1226
01:15:01,305 --> 01:15:01,885
No.

1227
01:15:02,785 --> 01:15:04,865
The nodes will be in a state of chaos.

1228
01:15:05,825 --> 01:15:09,745
A Lightning node might see a channel closure and confirm on one chain, but not the other.

1229
01:15:10,445 --> 01:15:12,865
They don't have an affordance for this.

1230
01:15:13,685 --> 01:15:15,305
Do you understand that?

1231
01:15:16,145 --> 01:15:20,165
There's also this limiting factor on Lightning's future.

1232
01:15:21,145 --> 01:15:25,025
BIP-110 places a cap on taproot Merkle tree depth.

1233
01:15:25,865 --> 01:15:28,805
Limiting it right now, this could change, but limiting it to seven levels,

1234
01:15:29,245 --> 01:15:31,685
or I think it's like 128 script leaves.

1235
01:15:32,025 --> 01:15:33,605
If you look at a Merkle tree, that's how these work.

1236
01:15:34,605 --> 01:15:39,165
Now, okay, current simple lightning channels that most of us use probably are not exceeding that depth.

1237
01:15:39,805 --> 01:15:55,485
But most scaling proposals that are out there to grow lightning to the next set of users, channel factories or taproot assets, some things I don't like, some things I do like, require complex deep script trees to handle multiple conditions or multiple participants even.

1238
01:15:56,125 --> 01:15:58,985
There's situations where there's conditional spending with some of these.

1239
01:15:59,405 --> 01:16:02,765
All of that would be broken by BIP 110.

1240
01:16:02,765 --> 01:16:13,185
Some of the more advanced things that we could do on layer twos to keep some of that crap off of the layer one gets blocked by BIP 110 by limiting the Merkle tree depth.

1241
01:16:13,945 --> 01:16:18,805
So you affect you effectively you're effectively stunting the development of Bitcoin.

1242
01:16:19,025 --> 01:16:25,185
Yeah, it kind of wouldn't be impacted on day one or five, but a year into it, you've wrecked the lightning network.

1243
01:16:25,745 --> 01:16:27,005
Consensus is a mess.

1244
01:16:27,005 --> 01:16:33,565
And you've completely shot in the foot potential developments and growth to scale the technology beyond the mainnet.

1245
01:16:33,825 --> 01:16:36,565
And so now all of this behavior has to go back to the mainnet.

1246
01:16:36,665 --> 01:16:37,725
You see what happens there?

1247
01:16:38,825 --> 01:16:42,965
And these people, they talk about their hard money advocates or purity.

1248
01:16:43,365 --> 01:16:45,165
And it's like there's some sort of purity test here.

1249
01:16:46,305 --> 01:16:49,365
This is bad on every single level.

1250
01:16:49,485 --> 01:16:50,145
It's rushed.

1251
01:16:50,145 --> 01:16:57,105
It designs around more users using Bitcoin knots, which just gives Luke more power.

1252
01:16:57,585 --> 01:17:00,645
And at best, it gives Ocean more customers.

1253
01:17:01,905 --> 01:17:08,945
And if you're still pro BIP110 after this, explain to me how you are comfortable handing Bitcoin over to Luke and Ocean.

1254
01:17:09,485 --> 01:17:10,605
Why is that okay?

1255
01:17:10,765 --> 01:17:13,105
You have a problem with Core, but you don't have a problem with that?

1256
01:17:14,025 --> 01:17:15,625
Just please explain that to me.

1257
01:17:16,285 --> 01:17:17,525
And go do your research.

1258
01:17:17,525 --> 01:17:22,665
Go look what happens when you only have a 55% mining fork.

1259
01:17:23,305 --> 01:17:27,105
You end up dealing with a minority chain that is easy to attack.

1260
01:17:28,425 --> 01:17:32,705
And think about the message and the precedent it sets if you take once valid transactions

1261
01:17:32,705 --> 01:17:38,165
and rewrite them to be unspendable and invalid, even if they're just locked up.

1262
01:17:38,705 --> 01:17:40,325
Think about the precedence that sets.

1263
01:17:41,105 --> 01:17:46,325
And then come back to me with a technical argument on how you solve the spam problem.

1264
01:17:47,165 --> 01:17:47,645
How does it?

1265
01:17:48,045 --> 01:17:52,085
Because right now the spam problem it seems to be addressing doesn't seem to be an issue.

1266
01:17:52,505 --> 01:17:53,925
Have you looked at the fee rates?

1267
01:17:54,865 --> 01:17:58,225
And this is the innovation of HashCash.

1268
01:17:58,345 --> 01:18:00,585
This is what HashCash was helping to solve.

1269
01:18:00,945 --> 01:18:04,045
This is why Satoshi and Adam Back talked so early on.

1270
01:18:07,585 --> 01:18:09,185
The miners could use some revenue too.

1271
01:18:09,305 --> 01:18:11,205
Like maybe we could use the fees to go up a bit.

1272
01:18:12,085 --> 01:18:13,325
I just don't know where this ends up.

1273
01:18:13,325 --> 01:18:21,425
So please address those questions if you're still a BIP 110 supporter, because to me, it seems like you're looking at a different set of technicalities than I am.

1274
01:18:21,465 --> 01:18:27,145
Because, you know, you went to an FAQ and you, I guess, read the proposal and you and I have come away with very different observations.

1275
01:18:28,885 --> 01:18:34,325
So, you know, I initially was a supporter of NOTs and now I am very much on the other side of that.

1276
01:18:34,325 --> 01:18:37,225
I will change my position when provided with enough evidence.

1277
01:18:37,985 --> 01:18:39,485
And I just haven't seen it.

1278
01:18:39,485 --> 01:19:00,365
And even just helping understand why the risk and setting the precedent is worth it. I can't get a good explanation on that. What I get is sort of a political style attack about not caring about Bitcoin or being pro-spam. And that to me feels like emotional manipulation.

1279
01:19:00,965 --> 01:19:06,685
So I would like any response to try to be as technical as possible, even if this is a very passionate issue for you.

1280
01:19:07,005 --> 01:19:10,365
I'd love to hear your feedback as technically as possible and continue the discussion.

1281
01:19:10,745 --> 01:19:12,085
I'm down to keep talking about it.

1282
01:19:13,825 --> 01:19:14,325
All right.

1283
01:19:14,345 --> 01:19:16,185
This is I don't know if this is really worth playing.

1284
01:19:16,345 --> 01:19:17,865
Just seems kind of strange to me.

1285
01:19:17,945 --> 01:19:19,625
The Clarity Act is still up in the air.

1286
01:19:19,685 --> 01:19:23,565
And Trump took to social media and said that the banks are holding the bill hostage.

1287
01:19:23,565 --> 01:19:39,265
And then just yesterday, as I record, on March 10th, Senators Angela Alselbrooks and Tom Trills, they waddled off to some big banking convention and, you know, tried to whittle down what they could get compromise-wise.

1288
01:19:39,665 --> 01:19:42,485
But it seems like things are still pretty much up in the air.

1289
01:19:42,625 --> 01:19:46,525
And this clip of Jamie Dimon is extremely defensive.

1290
01:19:47,145 --> 01:19:51,925
You and your peers have reportedly clashed with Coinbase's Brian Armstrong over the Clarity Act

1291
01:19:51,925 --> 01:19:56,325
and specifically this idea of crypto exchanges offering rewards for stable coins.

1292
01:19:56,705 --> 01:19:59,685
And Armstrong was on CNBC with Sarah Eisen a few weeks ago from Mar-a-Lago,

1293
01:20:00,005 --> 01:20:04,085
and he said there's a path forward for the market structure bill that's a, quote, win-win outcome for everyone.

1294
01:20:04,545 --> 01:20:05,745
How are you feeling about it right now?

1295
01:20:06,145 --> 01:20:09,905
The banks feel strongly that there should be, you know, awards are the same as interest.

1296
01:20:10,585 --> 01:20:15,125
And that, you know, a compromise would be that you could pay rewards on transactions, not balances.

1297
01:20:15,625 --> 01:20:18,505
If you are going to be holding balances and paying interest, that's the bank.

1298
01:20:18,565 --> 01:20:19,505
You should be regulated by a bank.

1299
01:20:19,845 --> 01:20:20,705
So we've been firm.

1300
01:20:21,085 --> 01:20:22,145
One thing over here, yes.

1301
01:20:22,405 --> 01:20:23,745
But if you want to be a bank, become a bank.

1302
01:20:24,025 --> 01:20:25,725
Then you can do whatever you want under bank law.

1303
01:20:25,805 --> 01:20:30,545
So I remind people, and your viewers may not know, banks have restrictions and requirements.

1304
01:20:31,265 --> 01:20:32,965
FDIC insurance, AML, BSA.

1305
01:20:33,085 --> 01:20:37,365
We have Community Responsibility Act, which means we have to open 25% of our business, LMI neighbors.

1306
01:20:37,465 --> 01:20:38,325
We have social requirements.

1307
01:20:38,325 --> 01:20:41,845
I mean, he's rambling through it so fast, you can hardly even understand him.

1308
01:20:41,845 --> 01:20:48,505
And when he's this defensive and when he's spinning this hard, it makes me think there really is some meat here to this interest issue.

1309
01:20:48,885 --> 01:21:07,185
And of course he is disseminating the truth as best to his ability when he this worked up What really true is that it two different business models right I mean they giving you interest on a fractional reserve product That what the banks are doing Coinbase is going to be giving you interest on a T

1310
01:21:07,745 --> 01:21:09,965
There's a bit of a different risk profile, right?

1311
01:21:10,165 --> 01:21:11,945
Because the bank is subject to risk.

1312
01:21:12,005 --> 01:21:12,945
If there's a run on the bank,

1313
01:21:12,945 --> 01:21:16,785
they're not going to be able to provide everyone's money.

1314
01:21:17,485 --> 01:21:20,005
So they have to be regulated up the wazoo

1315
01:21:20,005 --> 01:21:22,165
because we've seen this happen multiple times.

1316
01:21:23,005 --> 01:21:24,805
Now, could the same be true for T-bills?

1317
01:21:24,905 --> 01:21:26,905
Honestly, I think the whole thing's stupid.

1318
01:21:27,485 --> 01:21:32,425
But the more Jamie disseminates, the more he wiggles, the more he rambles all his sentence

1319
01:21:32,425 --> 01:21:35,765
together and claims that they need to be regulated by 20 different entities as if they're not

1320
01:21:35,765 --> 01:21:41,005
regulated now, makes me think there is actual meat on this bone that this is the big contentious

1321
01:21:41,005 --> 01:21:41,285
issue.

1322
01:21:42,205 --> 01:21:46,365
AMLBSA, we have Community Responsibility Act, which means we have to open 25% of our residents,

1323
01:21:46,485 --> 01:21:47,925
LMI neighbors, we have social requirements.

1324
01:21:48,225 --> 01:21:50,345
We have liquidity requirements, capital requirements, transparency requirements,

1325
01:21:50,425 --> 01:21:52,365
reporting requirements, board requirements, government requirements.

1326
01:21:52,545 --> 01:21:53,745
If they want to be a bank, so be it.

1327
01:21:53,745 --> 01:21:56,185
So what we base it as, level playing field by product.

1328
01:21:56,525 --> 01:21:58,685
You know, talk about regulatory moats, right?

1329
01:21:58,725 --> 01:22:01,745
That's why you can say if they want to be a bank, so be it, because it'll take them 35 years.

1330
01:22:02,345 --> 01:22:06,945
Now, the passage of the Clarity Act still seems to be kind of up in the air.

1331
01:22:07,505 --> 01:22:11,605
Mr. Wonderful says the Bitcoin will rocket to $200,000 when it passes.

1332
01:22:12,225 --> 01:22:12,805
But we'll see.

1333
01:22:13,245 --> 01:22:14,925
The Senate has a busy calendar.

1334
01:22:15,765 --> 01:22:16,945
Midterms are getting closer.

1335
01:22:17,205 --> 01:22:19,165
That's a lot of weird pressures for them.

1336
01:22:19,225 --> 01:22:20,345
It's not a slam dunk.

1337
01:22:20,885 --> 01:22:24,545
Polymarket, however, well, they have a slight different take.

1338
01:22:24,625 --> 01:22:32,925
And I think this is worth watching because it's kind of come up and down over the years, over the years, over the months, as it seems like people are factoring in different outcomes.

1339
01:22:33,365 --> 01:22:36,785
Right now, watching it, I'll try to link this in the show notes.

1340
01:22:36,785 --> 01:22:37,545
Yeah, oh, there it is.

1341
01:22:38,285 --> 01:22:47,125
Watching it right now, looking at the live Polymarket data, it looks like 62% chance of passing in 2026, which is down 3%.

1342
01:22:47,125 --> 01:22:49,785
The highest ever got was just around 75%.

1343
01:22:49,785 --> 01:23:03,425
Let's check in on the state of the network.

1344
01:23:03,425 --> 01:23:06,425
I'm wrapping up at block height 940,299.

1345
01:23:07,225 --> 01:23:12,325
Bitcoin currently sitting at $70,460 for one Bitcoin to U.S. dollars.

1346
01:23:12,905 --> 01:23:17,285
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,419 sats to one U.S. dollar.

1347
01:23:17,285 --> 01:23:24,185
We are down 44.1% from our all-time high, which was on October 6th, as you well know.

1348
01:23:24,565 --> 01:23:27,085
Our difficulty retarget date is March 19th.

1349
01:23:27,145 --> 01:23:29,785
We're looking at a downward adjustment of 3.4%.

1350
01:23:29,785 --> 01:23:30,745
Keep an eye on that.

1351
01:23:31,205 --> 01:23:33,925
And our reachable nodes is down just a few hundred right now.

1352
01:23:34,185 --> 01:23:34,545
What happened?

1353
01:23:34,585 --> 01:23:36,865
I took a week off and y'all shut your nodes down?

1354
01:23:37,925 --> 01:23:42,505
Total reachable nodes, 24,098 on the network right now.

1355
01:23:42,905 --> 01:23:43,805
We got to get that up.

1356
01:23:44,405 --> 01:23:45,045
Go get a node.

1357
01:23:45,045 --> 01:23:49,925
otherwise everything looking pretty normal i'd love to see that node number come up next week

1358
01:23:49,925 --> 01:23:56,225
we'll see it's interesting that it's even ebbing and flowing the uh vbytes uh sat per vbyte right

1359
01:23:56,225 --> 01:24:04,425
now uh fee is uh ridiculous absolutely outrageous two sats or vbyte right now if you want an

1360
01:24:04,425 --> 01:24:09,425
immediate transaction on the bitcoin network well it's good to be back it's good to be back

1361
01:24:09,425 --> 01:24:11,665
and the state of the network it's strong

1362
01:24:15,045 --> 01:24:28,285
Well, it's time for me to go take a nap.

1363
01:24:28,365 --> 01:24:31,405
So links to what I talked about are at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1364
01:24:31,405 --> 01:24:38,405
My goal was to get you the signal between all the stuffs with the wars going on and the fuds going on.

1365
01:24:38,645 --> 01:24:40,225
Try to get you the signal and all of that.

1366
01:24:40,285 --> 01:24:44,845
Really help you plan for your family, your business, your future, yourself, whatever it might be.

1367
01:24:44,845 --> 01:24:46,265
So let me know how I did with a boost.

1368
01:24:46,725 --> 01:24:49,825
And of course, I want to know your take on what was,

1369
01:24:50,285 --> 01:24:51,285
I can't remember now.

1370
01:24:51,325 --> 01:24:51,905
I'm so tired.

1371
01:24:52,465 --> 01:24:53,405
Oh yeah, right.

1372
01:24:53,965 --> 01:24:54,905
The billionaire FUD.

1373
01:24:55,945 --> 01:24:57,945
What's going on with Chamath and Ray?

1374
01:24:58,605 --> 01:25:00,225
Seeing you in the same tune all of a sudden,

1375
01:25:00,425 --> 01:25:01,405
what is that about?

1376
01:25:01,865 --> 01:25:03,745
Tell me if you think my take that maybe they're about to like

1377
01:25:03,745 --> 01:25:06,245
shill some sort of privacy coin or maybe it's something else.

1378
01:25:06,865 --> 01:25:08,625
Let me know how I did with a boost or send that in.

1379
01:25:08,825 --> 01:25:09,965
And that's about it.

1380
01:25:10,245 --> 01:25:12,525
I'll leave you with links and stuff at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1381
01:25:12,605 --> 01:25:14,045
You can find the back catalog over there.

1382
01:25:14,045 --> 01:25:15,485
I got a fun track for you.

1383
01:25:15,625 --> 01:25:16,965
I like the story around this week.

1384
01:25:17,065 --> 01:25:20,305
It's a track from an album called Bachelator.

1385
01:25:20,785 --> 01:25:23,025
And it's a track of, it's 10 different tracks.

1386
01:25:23,165 --> 01:25:24,645
Jeez, I'm really, it's going off the rails here, guys.

1387
01:25:25,665 --> 01:25:27,725
This album has 10 different tracks on it.

1388
01:25:27,765 --> 01:25:30,865
But what's fun is they composed it as a soundtrack

1389
01:25:30,865 --> 01:25:32,925
for an imaginary animated movie

1390
01:25:32,925 --> 01:25:35,445
that's set in like a post-apocalyptic future.

1391
01:25:36,765 --> 01:25:38,665
Superheroes and supervillains and spaceships

1392
01:25:38,665 --> 01:25:41,165
and robots and cyber zombies and aliens of all sizes.

1393
01:25:41,765 --> 01:25:43,185
It's just a fun concept to picture

1394
01:25:43,185 --> 01:25:46,225
while you listen to this week's song, which is Battle.

1395
01:26:13,185 --> 01:26:43,165
Thank you.

1396
01:26:43,185 --> 01:27:13,165
Thank you.

1397
01:27:13,185 --> 01:27:43,165
Thank you.

1398
01:27:43,185 --> 01:28:13,165
Thank you.

1399
01:28:13,185 --> 01:28:15,365
I'll be back.

1400
01:28:18,325 --> 01:28:19,385
I'll be back.

1401
01:28:22,245 --> 01:28:23,385
I'll be back.

1402
01:28:43,185 --> 01:29:13,165
Thank you.

1403
01:29:13,185 --> 01:29:15,665
Gonna Make

1404
01:29:15,665 --> 01:29:18,205
After

1405
01:29:18,205 --> 01:29:19,405
To

1406
01:29:19,405 --> 01:29:36,485
Eat