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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 124.

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My name is Chris.

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Chris, L-A-S dot com, Jupiter, broadcasting dot com.

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You know what they say, almost all of Bitcoin's upside happens in about 10 days a year.

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So if you were surprised, and I bet some of you were with the Fed rate hike and all, we're going to get into why Bitcoin ripped today and what I think it might mean for the four year cycle as well.

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But I want to start with the news that clearly kicked things off for Bitcoin and kind of kicked it out of its sideways crawl, which is a moment we have really been building towards for the last five weeks.

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There's a clear narrative arc over the last five weeks.

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And so for those of you that are just joining me now, wondering why Bitcoin just woke up, I'm going to try something new.

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I'm going to play a recap of the key moments from the last five weeks that brings us to where we are today.

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They said at that point a year ago that they'd be going from two to four operations a quarter.

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They again were targeting the long end from 10 years to 30 year maturities.

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At that point, every operation retained a $2 billion cap.

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This is now doubling that cap.

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They're now saying that they're going to be going from the current size of $2 billion per operation to $4 billion per operation.

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And it is having an instantaneous and pretty severe impact on some of those yields.

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Here we go.

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So for the Bitcoiners out there, the short version is this is the signal that the bonds aren't going to eat the debt problem.

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The currency is.

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The currency is going to eat the debt problem just like we all suspected.

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And this is essentially yield control through the back door.

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And Bitcoin is surging hard on this news.

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And what I find notable about that is Bitcoin is surging right now for the reasons it should

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be, because it is a sovereign monetary asset.

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They're a sovereign for monetary control asset, right?

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It's surging right now because it is protection from debasement.

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It's surging right now because it can't be issued by the U.S. government.

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There can't be more created.

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But it's pumping up by almost 6%.

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We'll see at the end.

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Actually, I could tell you right now.

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Let's take a look right now just because it's interesting.

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Oh, man.

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Look at this.

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So in the last 24 hours, Bitcoin is up 5.7%.

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It's up 8% since the last episode, currently sitting at 68,420, which is the most strength

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we have seen since really the bear market took hold.

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We really haven't broke above 65 very often.

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This is a very strong, although maybe temporary, but a very strong pump right now.

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We're up. That means our 30 day price is up 5 percent.

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So this is a real move here.

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And it's a real move for the very reasons Bitcoin was designed for.

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Quote, I have spent five decades trading on a simple premise.

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Markets aggregate information no committee possesses and prices are how that information reaches decision makers.

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The long term treasury yield is the most important price in the world.

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It is also the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.

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End quote.

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Stan, a longtime advocate of entitlement reform, pushes back on Besant's moves, especially hard here, and says the steps Besant is taking amount to procrastination, putting off what really must be done to meaningfully address U.S. debt.

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That means reforming Social Security and Medicare.

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That means creating a responsible budget.

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He lays out how Besson and the government have not only given the game away here, but they, like Trump on trade and Iran, have again misunderstood their power and influence and will quickly learn that they have miscalculated and cannot impose their will on others with the might that they think they have.

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My take is Druck's core point was that if you tell the market you're going to be supplying it like this, they're going to adapt to that and you're just going to see the yield continue to rise.

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It'll become the new norm, which is kind of what's happening.

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But the Treasury said they're doubling down. They will continue to support it if they need to.

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And investors, they seem to be just more skeptical about the long-term possibility of financing Washington's debt.

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And unfortunately, we live in a world with a lot of uncertainty right now, not only politically, but on the monetary side as well.

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And I think that's what we're seeing on Bitcoin right now.

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It's a lot of like the realization that this is a very different asset from what we've seen before.

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And it's not just the tether guy saying it.

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That's the point I'm trying to make here is there has been a tone shift around Bitcoin with the suits that seems to have really stuck after this treasury decision.

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And that narrative kind of went on blast this week.

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That's really what I'm noticing.

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Here's BlackRock's head of digital assets.

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They're seeing a shift at the institutional level.

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So there's periods where it's behaving more risk on, and that's partly driven by some of the speculative traders that exist in the market, often with leverage. And there's periods where it behaves more risk off. And certainly in the last couple of weeks, the latter narrative has risen back to the forefront. I think in the long run, that's the narrative to bet on around Bitcoin. That's how most of the long term institutional type investors that we engage with are seeing it.

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that's how the long-term institutional investors that they engage with, BlackRock,

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that's how they're seeing it.

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So not only is it BlackRock's position, but that's how their clients are seeing it.

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That's what he's saying right now.

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That's what Robby's saying.

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Institutional-type investors that we engage with are seeing it.

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And the idea is that Bitcoin, by its nature,

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is this global, scarce, decentralized, emerging monetary alternative.

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and ultimately its long run risk and return drivers are going to be quite distinct from

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most other asset classes that investors have.

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And then as of like three weeks ago was, well, it's going to be at least 4 billion guys.

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It's not a big deal, but it's going to be like 4 billion just to, you know, provide

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some buyer pressure here.

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And then this, well, today it was announced that it's going to be 6 billion now, still

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small outstained versus the outstanding debt, right?

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Because we're talking tens of trillions of dollars.

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So still overall a drop in the bucket.

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but it is large compared to any single 2000 to 2002 operation. It's larger than average for sure.

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But what's big is the noise they're making around it. That's the unusual part. It seems to me like

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they're making a lot of fuss about this, trying to get people to notice it. And I don't know what

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that's about. I think a lot of people are reading it as Buffalo Besson hubris. I don't know so much.

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The bond market just said, screw you.

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And literally on the news, the yield rallied higher.

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So like on the news, like just did the opposite of what the Treasury wants.

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So it seems to me the bond market is quite literally fighting Buffalo Besant right now.

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And as the Iran war continues and the 10 year note is getting higher and higher, if they

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don't have some sort of pressure release valve here, we could see next week the 10 year yield

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rise above 5%. And I say that because I pulled it up on a chart today, and we're up 100 basis

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points since the Iran war began on the 10-year. It's just doot-doot-doot-doot-doot-doot. It just

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keeps ticking up on like a clock. It's just block by block almost. I mean, it's impressive.

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So we're on track here for something that ain't so good. The economic war is getting real,

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and the U.S. is starting to struggle. Everything basically goes up when diesel goes up. It's one

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of the key inputs to the economy because so many things move by diesel or involved with

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manufacturing or creation of food or housing, et cetera, et cetera.

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Diesel prices go up.

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Everything goes up.

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And I've been saying now for a few weeks, the longer this conflict has gone on, the more

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the knobs of pressure get turned up on the energy market.

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The bond market gets harder to control.

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We've been witnessing that, you know, Buffalo Besson's just kind of pissing in the wind

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with his buybacks.

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And the world economy ends up getting squeezed from both ends.

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We get inflation and you get also the risk of stagflation.

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We are now in a total rock and hard place.

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And this is a total 180 from where we were back in February.

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This is Stephen Major.

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He brings up how much things have shifted since just before the conflict started Back in February of this year before the war in this region started that was on the 27th of February the yield on 10 treasuries was below 4 and the market was implying three cuts

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Here we are, six, seven months later, we've got 5% 10-year yields and three hikes. So one thing I

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would say is that you've had a six-rate hike move in the space of six, seven months. That's 150

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basis points. That explains the entirety of that 10-year yield shift and a bit more, really.

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So I think that a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds,

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and it tends to talk about fiscal policy in the same breath as being bearish and about

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the supply of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you. I just don't

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really see it. The term premium hasn't gone up. People have been claiming that it has. It has not

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gone up. You can see it on the Bloomberg terminal. The curve has flattened because it's been pricing

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in the rate hikes. Inflation expectations are controlled. Spot inflation is a bit higher.

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So I could see one hike and then next year we could be back into the easing mode. It's the war

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in this region that has ruined the best laid plans. I mean, the best laid plans, whose best

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laid plant pans? Buffalo Bessent, of course. He said he was the house and the market said,

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okay, sure. Hold my beer. Three on the rules around any of it. So Bessent's going off and

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doing his own thing. And the growth story that we've all been counting on is undermining and

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sabotaging itself. Every one of these problems eventually comes back to just, I think, a basic

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question. Who controls the money? Who sets the price of capital? And who gets rescued if any of

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this breaks because it's not you and me individually, right? Bitcoin doesn't fix an

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energy shock. It doesn't fix a broken Congress. It doesn't fix a freaking bond market out.

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Doesn't help it. Doesn't fix it. But it does give you an asset outside of all of that,

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detached from the bailout community. It doesn't worry about forward guidance on the long term.

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Doesn't require a 12 to 0 vote to set the price. Doesn't include any rescue. There's no rescue

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with Bitcoin. And that brings us back to present time. And what you've really got to wrap your

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noodle around is why no bailouts for Bitcoin is one of its best features. So let's just recap how

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the bailouts are going, how the management is doing. Let's see, we have the bond market that

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is fighting Bessent. We have energy constraints that are coming and going. We have inflation

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pressures that seem to be temporary, yet then long-term, transitory, but yet not. And the

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central banks, looking at all of this, including the United States Central Bank, started raising

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rates this last week.

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I am in New York. Over the past two weeks, our economists here at Morgan Stanley have revised

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their outlooks for the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of Japan to include more rate hikes. Each economy

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faces different challenges, but all three central banks have arrived at roughly the same conclusion.

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Growth has remained remarkably resilient despite all of these shocks hitting the global economy,

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and renewed energy price pressures have increased the risk that inflation proves more persistent

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than they had previously expected. The clearest example and our biggest revision here is the Fed.

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Now, for much of this year, we had actually thought the Fed might avoid hiking interest

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rates altogether.

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But in addition to this increase that we just saw at the September FOMC meeting, we now

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expect two additional rate hikes in December and in March that'll bring the terminal rate

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up to four and a quarter to four and a half.

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So the 10-year did slip back below 5% after the Fed rate hike.

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And so the Fed's essentially, they're doing what people would call hiking rates on the

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front end.

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The immediate number, right?

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And then the long end, the bond market, it falls.

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When that happens, that actually can ease valuation pressure on long-term and risk assets,

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which is part of why Bitcoin ripped.

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So it is surprising to see Bitcoin rip after a Fed rate hike, but you got to kind of adjust

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your thinking and your narrative around this.

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We've gone into the fiscal dominance story plenty, but there's just a different game

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at play here, right?

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And overall, if you look at if you look at what the actual inflation rates are, the Fed is still there still is an easy policy still.

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There's still room in there.

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So it's one of those things where if they kept raising, right, if they kept on hiking, I could see Bitcoin struggling with that.

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But in the short term, because of the dynamics in the bond market, it's actually made people bullish again.

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And the other narrative that I think needed adjustment in all of this is Bitcoin pumped despite the failure of the Clarity Act.

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A Clarity Act.

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And I had been tapping the brakes on the Clarity Act the entire time,

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but others had started to build up momentum.

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I like Jordy Vesser.

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I think he's a good guy.

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But he was suggesting that we kind of needed the Clarity Act to really see Bitcoin pump.

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If we got anything positive on Clarity,

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I think crypto would go up far faster than people realize.

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And Bitcoin 100K if we get Clarity?

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Yes.

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I mean, who knows?

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I guess we'll never know.

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But we'll see.

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I did enjoy CNBC's attempt to catch up on what the heck's going on.

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Right. They clearly are just not getting their Bitcoin takes from the right place.

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Because when Bitcoin rips, their heads just spin.

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You're on set with us as Neoclassic Capital's co-founder and managing partner, Michael Buchella.

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Buchella. Anyway, it's a running joke.

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It is great to have you here. And we're not I'm not trying to conflate clarity with Bitcoin.

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The Bitcoiners told us it mattered, even though there's not really a one to one obvious.

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Gosh darn Bitcoiners.

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You know, relationship there.

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So just talk about what you think is driving the action in crypto lately.

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Sure.

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I've been trying to indicate that it doesn't matter nearly as much as I think the market wanted it to matter.

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It's something to point to.

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It's something to say Congress and the broader government are coming around to understanding our industry.

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But the last few times I was on, I said we can still pursue our industry without government intervention.

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And I think it's been interesting to see Bitcoin was resilient in the face of that last week.

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and then also kind of flipped and turned sort of market correlated this week

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where you had a billion dollars of inflows into the Bitcoin ETF yesterday.

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Yes.

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And so we see a resiliency and then a participation on the upside.

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So bad news is good news.

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Good news is good news.

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We're in a good place for my Bitcoin friends.

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And I have many of them.

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You know what?

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I think they just.

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OK, so she still doesn't get it.

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Right.

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And she'll continue on.

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Even after all these years of covering it, they still lump in Bitcoin with all the other

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crypto.

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You know, you buy a little bit of this for that bet and you buy a little bit of that

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for this bet.

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And, you know, if you want privacy, you buy some of that.

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And if you want tokenization, you buy some of that.

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But what they're missing is the maturing of the market.

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I mean, each digital asset that survives in this marketplace is going to have a particular market fit.

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And Bitcoin is finding its market fit.

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Chris Perkins was on the Schwab Network.

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He explained.

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Chris Perkins, head of Franklin Crypto, arm of Franklin Templeton, is joining me now.

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So when you see Bitcoin here above $85,000, moving to the highest level since January, what's the risk appetite about here?

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Why are folks jumping into Bitcoin?

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Nicole, great to see you.

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It certainly feels like we're entering the beginnings of a bull cycle.

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We saw ETF demand coming back.

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We saw about a billion dollars in inflows on Monday.

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And what we're seeing is that despite a number of stresses that may have hurt Bitcoin in years past, we had a hike in rates.

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The Clarity Act didn't pass.

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There's been other geopolitical stresses.

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But the asset continues to move nicely up.

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Why is that?

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I think the market is maturing.

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We're seeing institutions step in.

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Retail's coming back.

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They saw a little bit of price action.

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They like it.

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But you're seeing it depart, perhaps, from being a frontier risk asset and wrapping all of crypto in this, like, wrapper of frontier risk assets to assets that are being driven by fundamentals.

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Because as institutions come in, they're looking at fundamentals.

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They're seeing what's going on with the dollar and some of the action that Treasury Secretary Besant's taking.

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Its biggest feature is that there isn a nation driving it or a company You know a lot of times people say well why would I buy Bitcoin when I could just buy a stock Well because stock has counterparty risk You know the treasuries have sovereign risk and the market is hungry for an

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asset that doesn't. So that I think, and it's not me saying that, right? It's Chris Perkins over

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there on the Schwab network explaining it in the wonky way that they explain things. But I think

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he's right. I think we're seeing it's not completely, we're not there. It's not like we're on the other

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end of this. This is a multi-year journey, but we are seeing a gradient of understanding and

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market fit develop that wasn't there even just five weeks ago. I think another dynamic at play

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is the long timers cashed out that we're going to cash out. And now whoever still has their stash,

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they're hodling for a while again. Now, I think it's probable that we could see this thing go

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either way, just because it's a midterm year and that's still just a big variable. But either way,

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it's been very strong performance that would suggest that a bear market is over. I don't know.

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But if you consider you have this market fit happening at the institutional level,

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plus then you have the longtime whales, the ones that wanted to cash out,

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they kind of cashed out when it was around 100,000 or above. And some of those, some of those

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wallets, those very wallets that sold have been buying back since about July. So I think for a

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moment, if you look at the four-year cycle, if you look at it, some say it started early. Maybe

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now some are going to say it ended early. I don't know. Here's what I do know. If this was a four-year

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cycle, it was a pretty mild one, and it ran a bit short. From November 2022 low to a July 2026 low

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is about 1,338 days. So versus 1,430 days before that, I think I was supposed to write November

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2025 in there. Sorry. Typo. November 2025 low to a July 2026 low was 1,338 days. Wow. Let me pull

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up the old dashboard here and take a look at this too. Yeah. And 300. Okay. Yeah. And we're 351 days

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since our all time high, $126,180, which was on October 6th, 2025. So a lot of people thought the

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four-year cycle would wrap up in October, but here we are. We're a little early. Usually the average

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four-year cycle down the bare part of the four-year cycle is longer than that. So if this was the

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four-year cycle, it was a short one, I guess is what I'm trying to ineloquently say. Because I

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think you'd have to go back to June, July. That was technically the low. We set the low in June

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or July. So the reality, I think, is if there is a four-year cycle, it is now clearly mostly human

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driven if we continue to rally. And I don't think that's that radical of an idea. I think it's

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exactly what you would expect. You think initially it'd be mechanical because of just supply

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constraints, but as the supply dynamics move to the market, the spot market ETFs and whatnot,

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you could see how it shifts from a mechanical mechanism to a human mechanism. And once it

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becomes human driven, that's when you start front running these kinds of things. You front run the

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top and you try to front run the bottom, which creates the reverse of each of those conditions.

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I don't okay I'll play this clip for you listen to this matter of fact nature of how this CEO

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he's Calamos I think is what it's called and this is a really interesting guy he's boring

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but he's interesting because he's like the profile of a traditional Wall Street investment firm

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CEO doesn't really have any skin in the game they didn't really pay a lot of attention to

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digital assets for a long time and then they just kind of quietly for a couple of years did a bunch

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of in-house research and then decided they want to get in on Bitcoin and start doing some Bitcoin

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ETFs. I don't know about their ETFs, but I know they're managing about $50 billion in asset in

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their company per year and that they looked at this rationally and made a rational choice for

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based on their due diligence, based on what they thought their customers might want.

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And I just think it's interesting to listen to how he's telling his customers to allocate and

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almost casually matter of fact this old Wall Street cat is about all of this.

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Bitcoin trading around $86,000 this morning, breaking through, I think, what was kind of

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closely watched as a key technical level in trading this week.

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You are in that marketplace.

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You have products in the marketplace.

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Your thoughts?

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Sure.

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We last year developed an ETF, which is 100% principle protected for people that can't

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take the volatile swings in Bitcoin.

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So we feel that we also have a 90 and 80% protected type Bitcoin.

292
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So it has a similar volatility to money markets, to equities, to commodities, and you can put this in your portfolio.

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Bitcoin is here to stay.

294
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That's what we feel.

295
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That's what we believe.

296
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I think that just because the act didn't pass last week, I think the Clarity Act, I think the SEC the next day made some rulings where it's helped Bitcoin.

297
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And we've seen it gone up in price instead of down.

298
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I think the weak players are out of the market.

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And I think, you know, we're going to see a cycle in the next three months, even though it might take a little bit of a breather here, really go up.

300
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It trades in like four-year cycles.

301
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And in October should be the low of that four years where we start to see the rise again for the next four years.

302
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So I think that Bitcoin is definitely an allocation that most portfolios are starting to have, even the big sovereign wealth funds.

303
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It's not are you in Bitcoin?

304
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It's how much are you allocated?

305
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And if we had this conversation a year ago with the biggest banks in the world, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley and all that, they did not want to participate.

306
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And now they're in and they're participating.

307
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They're lending against it and everything else.

308
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So it's here.

309
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It's here to stay.

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It's a long term hold.

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Don't watch it every day because you're not going to be happy.

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But we feel it's a great investment.

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So what strikes me there is just how confidently he speaks of the four-year cycle.

314
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There's no debate about it or what its nature is.

315
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It is a thing.

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And so if people in the market are just so certain it's a thing, well, then they're going

317
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to trade against it, right?

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And so if that is true, then they would want to get ahead of the bottom, right?

319
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Isn't that what everybody, anybody that's, I shouldn't say dumb enough because you probably

320
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are smart.

321
00:23:49,940 --> 00:23:51,080
You probably have more Bitcoin than me.

322
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But anybody that trades Bitcoin is trying to time it.

323
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And that is the real key thing.

324
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And so the portion of the market base that is doing that is trying to figure out if now is their time to get back in.

325
00:24:03,940 --> 00:24:05,700
They're buying on the ETFs.

326
00:24:06,020 --> 00:24:07,100
They're taking leverage.

327
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People that took leverage against it are getting washed.

328
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It's actually pretty fun to watch.

329
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I do enjoy a good rip.

330
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All right.

331
00:24:16,540 --> 00:24:17,500
So here's my question.

332
00:24:17,620 --> 00:24:18,760
You know what it is, don't you?

333
00:24:18,820 --> 00:24:19,820
You know what I'm going to ask.

334
00:24:19,820 --> 00:24:21,380
where do we go from here?

335
00:24:21,500 --> 00:24:23,820
Boost in and tell me where we go from here.

336
00:24:23,860 --> 00:24:26,520
And I do want you to boost in and let me know up or down,

337
00:24:27,120 --> 00:24:28,840
you know, I'd say over the next 30 days.

338
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:30,560
You don't have to say the next, just the next 30 days.

339
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,240
And I do need you to boost in.

340
00:24:32,460 --> 00:24:35,680
Boosts are down 27% over the last 30 days.

341
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:37,160
And the trend is not my friend.

342
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,760
When I zoom out beyond 30 days,

343
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:43,160
really support peaked this year with the cold card breach.

344
00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:45,140
And then we have just been in a decline

345
00:24:45,140 --> 00:24:46,740
every episode since then.

346
00:24:47,420 --> 00:24:49,900
Thank you, everyone who has been boosting during that time.

347
00:24:50,300 --> 00:24:51,940
Seriously, MVPs and the members.

348
00:24:52,500 --> 00:24:54,620
Seriously, you guys are really the MVPs.

349
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:55,200
Do I have here?

350
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:56,100
I need to give you something.

351
00:24:56,360 --> 00:24:57,220
I got to give you something.

352
00:24:57,760 --> 00:24:58,280
Let me give you.

353
00:24:58,360 --> 00:24:58,660
How about.

354
00:25:00,100 --> 00:25:00,620
There you go.

355
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:01,040
That's for you.

356
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:03,160
I don't know if you like that, but that was for you.

357
00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:04,520
Really, thank you very much.

358
00:25:05,220 --> 00:25:10,620
But the uncomfortable truth is, is nearly 30 percent is just not going to do it.

359
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:15,080
I don't have a lot of buffer with the show because it's such a major time cost every week for me.

360
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:23,560
And if I took just a couple of weeks off of Twib, I think I could probably launch an entirely new JB show and get it off the ground in that time.

361
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:27,040
And then if that show did better, that's where I'd have to focus my time, no doubt.

362
00:25:27,120 --> 00:25:28,680
But, you know, depending on where it went, we'd see.

363
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:30,940
It's just something I have to consider.

364
00:25:31,060 --> 00:25:31,580
I hate it.

365
00:25:32,020 --> 00:25:33,440
Things are just really tight.

366
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,880
And the margin for error is really, really.

367
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:36,400
There isn't one.

368
00:25:37,060 --> 00:25:39,040
I was going to say it's really small, but there is no margin for error.

369
00:25:39,500 --> 00:25:41,760
So next episode, I think, is the last episode of the month.

370
00:25:41,760 --> 00:26:05,220
And if the trend continues and we hit 30 down by the end of the month I think I announce a short hiatus I not exactly sure when I announce a short hiatus and then I going to apply my time to some other projects It not a forever thing Ironically it may be just as Bitcoin is turning around which is kind of what I feared about the value for value model Could be a fatal flaw I think I don know But with

371
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a news-focused show, something I've always worried about is sort of the ebbs and flow of when

372
00:26:13,100 --> 00:26:17,140
something big is happening, people support the show. But then on the week-to-week events,

373
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like the last five weeks that got us to this point,

374
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people just don't find that as valuable

375
00:26:22,220 --> 00:26:24,220
and they don't support it as much.

376
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And then something major happens

377
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and the show gets some support.

378
00:26:27,380 --> 00:26:29,340
But it's the in-between weeks

379
00:26:29,340 --> 00:26:31,600
where the show kind of starves.

380
00:26:32,140 --> 00:26:33,640
I don't know what to do about that

381
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:35,220
because I'm worried it may just be

382
00:26:35,220 --> 00:26:37,640
a fundamental issue with the format.

383
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:39,680
But so thank you again to everybody

384
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:41,160
who has been contributing during that time.

385
00:26:41,220 --> 00:26:41,840
You've kept me going.

386
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:43,900
Even in the weeks I was sick and feeling like crap,

387
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:45,460
you kept me focused.

388
00:26:45,580 --> 00:26:47,020
You kept me focused on the signal.

389
00:26:47,140 --> 00:26:49,100
and trying to do the best job I possibly could for you.

390
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:50,180
So thank you, everybody.

391
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:51,620
And do consider supporting the show,

392
00:26:51,780 --> 00:26:53,840
boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com

393
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,780
or becoming a member at jupiter.party

394
00:26:56,780 --> 00:26:57,960
or in Fountain.

395
00:26:58,280 --> 00:26:59,100
That would be great, too.

396
00:27:17,140 --> 00:27:21,360
I want to mention you can also support the show just by doing what you want to do.

397
00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:24,700
If you want to buy sats on River, sign up with my link in the show notes.

398
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,660
Also, the Bitcoin Well, automatic self-custody platform.

399
00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:28,500
They don't host the wallet.

400
00:27:28,700 --> 00:27:29,240
You do.

401
00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:30,000
It's pretty great.

402
00:27:30,340 --> 00:27:31,700
Super support for Lightning, too.

403
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,380
Speaking of Lightning, you want to go from sats to gift card in seconds?

404
00:27:35,500 --> 00:27:36,940
Check out The Bitcoin Company.

405
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:38,180
Link in the notes.

406
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:39,760
You can log in with your Lightning.

407
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,160
The only thing they deal with is Bitcoin.

408
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:42,620
So many gift cards.

409
00:27:42,660 --> 00:27:43,300
It'd blow your mind.

410
00:27:43,360 --> 00:27:44,060
It's really handy.

411
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,620
Now, Foldcard lets you stack sats while you're paying your daily bills, doing that kind of stuff.

412
00:27:48,660 --> 00:27:51,260
They got a new Visa card that stacks sats as well.

413
00:27:51,700 --> 00:27:53,140
A little bit back on every purchase.

414
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,640
Salt Lending and Strike are both great platforms to get access to your Bitcoin liquidity without selling it.

415
00:27:59,020 --> 00:28:01,760
Strike also lets you stack sats and all kinds of Bitcoin services.

416
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:03,700
I have links to those in the show notes.

417
00:28:03,700 --> 00:28:08,460
If you're creating an account, no official relationship services I have or do use.

418
00:28:08,660 --> 00:28:09,280
And I like them.

419
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:12,620
And you can support the show by doing what you do.

420
00:28:14,060 --> 00:28:25,620
We do have some boosts.

421
00:28:25,660 --> 00:28:27,880
Four score and seven boosts to go.

422
00:28:28,360 --> 00:28:33,140
Our top booster this week is J-Cube, who came in with 60,000 sats.

423
00:28:33,260 --> 00:28:34,620
Hey, rich lobster!

424
00:28:36,740 --> 00:28:38,920
J-Cube, that makes you our sap, Bala.

425
00:28:39,060 --> 00:28:39,820
Thank you very much.

426
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:40,820
Great coverage, Chris.

427
00:28:40,820 --> 00:28:43,380
Listening to Twib is not only informative, but it's dang enjoyable.

428
00:28:43,540 --> 00:28:44,000
Keep it up.

429
00:28:44,060 --> 00:28:45,040
Thank you, J-Cube.

430
00:28:45,940 --> 00:28:49,740
A lot of times I really, not, I don't know how to put it, but I agree.

431
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:51,200
I enjoy doing the show quite a bit.

432
00:28:51,780 --> 00:28:52,660
I wish I could, you know what?

433
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,120
Oh my gosh, I wish I could only do the show and then go to Bitcoin events and travel around

434
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:56,680
and do meetups.

435
00:28:57,900 --> 00:28:59,080
I just think, all right.

436
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:00,520
Boy, I wish I could.

437
00:29:01,300 --> 00:29:05,420
If I had like, you know, if I already had a million sats or a million Bitcoin or something,

438
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,480
if I just had a huge stash, you know, screw it, I'd go for it.

439
00:29:08,560 --> 00:29:09,320
I'd go for it.

440
00:29:09,780 --> 00:29:11,040
I'd come buy you a beer, J-Cube.

441
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:12,260
Thank you very much.

442
00:29:12,260 --> 00:29:14,880
Sats McGee comes in with a row of McDucks.

443
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,120
That's 22,222 Sats.

444
00:29:17,220 --> 00:29:18,880
This old duck still got it.

445
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:21,460
Fantastic essay at the end of episode one, two, three.

446
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:22,000
Thank you, Sats.

447
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,160
I wanted to wrap it all up.

448
00:29:23,300 --> 00:29:24,320
I appreciate that feedback.

449
00:29:25,220 --> 00:29:27,040
I was trying to put a button on it, if you will.

450
00:29:27,300 --> 00:29:28,640
And I appreciate that value too.

451
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:32,780
Read BTCs here with 3,400 Satoshis.

452
00:29:33,420 --> 00:29:34,420
Turn Ferguson.

453
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,280
That's when I hit the random button.

454
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:38,160
Here's another one for you.

455
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:39,740
Hey, I like that one.

456
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:41,200
3,400 Sats.

457
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:43,060
to say great episode with a beer.

458
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:44,260
Thank you very much.

459
00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:46,120
This is a tasty burger.

460
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:47,020
Appreciate you.

461
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,480
Moon Knight's back with 2000 sats.

462
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:50,940
Linux or something.

463
00:29:51,400 --> 00:29:53,420
Worst possible timing for the rates to go up.

464
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,360
Me and my partner are actively in the process

465
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:56,320
of trying to buy our condo.

466
00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,060
Saw the projected monthly payments crank right up overnight.

467
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:00,580
Oh, man.

468
00:30:00,580 --> 00:30:04,040
I remember before the 2008 financial crisis,

469
00:30:04,160 --> 00:30:05,540
I was having such a hell of a time

470
00:30:05,540 --> 00:30:08,160
getting the house financed.

471
00:30:08,260 --> 00:30:09,120
It was wild.

472
00:30:09,660 --> 00:30:11,180
I know what that's a bit like.

473
00:30:11,260 --> 00:30:11,940
I'm sorry to hear that.

474
00:30:12,140 --> 00:30:14,780
Hopefully, hopefully in a few years,

475
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,280
things turn around or a couple of years,

476
00:30:16,320 --> 00:30:17,320
you know, things take quite a while

477
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:18,600
on the Fed scale, timescale,

478
00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:20,880
but, you know, you can refinance or something.

479
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:22,820
Then buy some Bitcoin, right?

480
00:30:23,220 --> 00:30:24,720
Ah, yeah, buddy.

481
00:30:25,280 --> 00:30:25,960
Thank you, Moon.

482
00:30:26,300 --> 00:30:27,140
Appreciate the value.

483
00:30:28,140 --> 00:30:30,660
User 54.5 is here with 4,000 sats.

484
00:30:30,660 --> 00:30:32,560
Put some macaroni and cheese on there too.

485
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:34,000
No message, just value.

486
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:34,960
Thank you very much.

487
00:30:35,860 --> 00:30:39,000
Debitcoiners.eu is here with 10,000 satoshis.

488
00:30:39,140 --> 00:30:39,600
Woo-hoo!

489
00:30:39,940 --> 00:30:42,060
Ten gold blooms out of a possible ten gold blooms.

490
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:43,040
Keep up the good work.

491
00:30:43,100 --> 00:30:44,040
Well, thank you, Debitcoin.

492
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:45,260
Appreciate you.

493
00:30:45,740 --> 00:30:47,740
Orange Mart's here with 5,000 Satoshis.

494
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,720
Why you got to put numbers and letters together?

495
00:30:49,980 --> 00:30:51,320
Why can't you just go f*** yourself?

496
00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:53,880
The random button is spicy today.

497
00:30:54,340 --> 00:30:56,840
Orange Mart has no message of value.

498
00:30:57,180 --> 00:30:58,940
I should switch to manual, perhaps.

499
00:30:59,420 --> 00:31:01,380
I don't know if I like some of these.

500
00:31:01,420 --> 00:31:02,040
You know what I mean?

501
00:31:02,460 --> 00:31:03,180
I don't know.

502
00:31:03,180 --> 00:31:04,260
Ha ha ha.

503
00:31:04,740 --> 00:31:06,120
Ha ha ha.

504
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:07,280
Ha ha ha.

505
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,320
Chew Toys here with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 sats.

506
00:31:11,420 --> 00:31:11,700
Yes.

507
00:31:11,860 --> 00:31:12,440
That's amazing.

508
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:14,180
I've got the same combination on my luggage.

509
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:16,140
He says, long live Twib.

510
00:31:16,220 --> 00:31:17,320
Thank you very much.

511
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:18,140
Appreciate you.

512
00:31:18,420 --> 00:31:19,460
Smoke if you got them.

513
00:31:19,700 --> 00:31:22,820
Gene Bean's here with a row of ducks, 2,222 sats.

514
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,280
And Gene says, boost.

515
00:31:25,460 --> 00:31:26,280
You got it, Gene.

516
00:31:26,420 --> 00:31:26,980
Thanks, Gene.

517
00:31:27,100 --> 00:31:27,900
Appreciate the value.

518
00:31:28,060 --> 00:31:29,640
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

519
00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:31,820
The Clarity Act will return.

520
00:31:31,820 --> 00:31:36,240
Similarly, how Trump promoted the COVID vaccine, but everyone said it was too dangerous until Biden took office.

521
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:47,460
I think you're right in the sense that I saw a letter come out from a couple of different Democrat Congress critters that said they are committing to continuing the process in the next session.

522
00:31:48,260 --> 00:31:55,120
But it may be what. Oh, right. Oh, one of the senators was Liz, Liz Warren.

523
00:31:55,340 --> 00:31:58,200
She wants to be the one that leads it in the next session.

524
00:31:58,200 --> 00:31:58,880
And she wants to do so.

525
00:31:58,960 --> 00:31:59,640
Can you only imagine?

526
00:31:59,740 --> 00:32:01,520
Because her version, which we saw a version of.

527
00:32:01,740 --> 00:32:06,600
Oh, I think they I think she even I think there was even talk about going after self-custody.

528
00:32:06,740 --> 00:32:07,740
Bitcoin self-custody.

529
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:08,280
Remember that?

530
00:32:08,580 --> 00:32:09,040
You remember that?

531
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:10,340
I think I remember that.

532
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:11,980
I think I remembered that.

533
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:13,100
Thanks, Ace.

534
00:32:13,460 --> 00:32:14,020
Appreciate you.

535
00:32:15,460 --> 00:32:17,780
Is here with 10,000 sats.

536
00:32:17,940 --> 00:32:19,640
It's over 9000.

537
00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:21,380
Doesn't matter what's in the queue.

538
00:32:21,380 --> 00:32:24,720
When a new twib drops, I drop everything else and go straight to you.

539
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:25,880
Keep up the strong signal.

540
00:32:25,980 --> 00:32:26,580
Always appreciated.

541
00:32:26,780 --> 00:32:27,180
Wow.

542
00:32:27,780 --> 00:32:29,300
Well, thank you very much.

543
00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:29,940
Oh, I'm in.

544
00:32:30,320 --> 00:32:31,920
That's really, I really appreciate that.

545
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:34,300
That, see, now I can't stop doing the show, right?

546
00:32:34,420 --> 00:32:34,920
There you go.

547
00:32:35,500 --> 00:32:36,080
I can't stop.

548
00:32:36,220 --> 00:32:37,720
I hate building PCs.

549
00:32:37,980 --> 00:32:38,800
Brent, nobody asked you.

550
00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:40,980
Seattle BitDev, Seattle, eh?

551
00:32:41,060 --> 00:32:43,280
Is here with 9,600 sats.

552
00:32:47,460 --> 00:32:48,240
Love the show.

553
00:32:48,340 --> 00:32:49,300
Well, thank you, Seattle.

554
00:32:49,420 --> 00:32:49,880
Make it show.

555
00:32:50,180 --> 00:32:52,520
We should, you know, we should have a Seattle meetup, right?

556
00:32:52,520 --> 00:32:53,500
Bring Wes down.

557
00:32:54,260 --> 00:32:56,260
Pacific Northwest meetup.

558
00:32:56,260 --> 00:33:06,820
up talk about bitcoin thank you appreciate you user 26 is here with 2345 sats alex rod says

559
00:33:06,820 --> 00:33:11,940
psyduck psyduck well okay i don't know what you're talking about but you get a duck this old duck

560
00:33:11,940 --> 00:33:20,020
still got it skak is here with 2323 sats i hate building pcs frank get out of here he's a good

561
00:33:20,020 --> 00:33:24,100
guy that's true he's a real good guy no he's a great guy that's that's true let's hear it good

562
00:33:24,100 --> 00:33:24,600
All right.

563
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:26,500
He says, great take on the Doomer AI rhetoric.

564
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:37,820
You can almost hear the bubble burst and the printer go burr to bail out these frontier AI companies as they backpedal their stance under the mass premise of altruistic AI slowdown to save humanity.

565
00:33:38,180 --> 00:33:43,360
They clearly are covering for their realization that they are not the gatekeepers they thought they were.

566
00:33:43,980 --> 00:33:48,340
And they're getting eaten alive with training costs while the Chinese models are just blasting.

567
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:49,120
Right?

568
00:33:49,380 --> 00:33:50,280
I think you got it, SK.

569
00:33:50,420 --> 00:33:51,460
Thank you very much.

570
00:33:51,780 --> 00:33:52,400
Like that one.

571
00:33:52,400 --> 00:33:59,320
nakamoto is here with 5 000 sets live long and prosper this is appreciate the value i appreciate

572
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:05,660
the value thank you very much superior ability breeds superior ambition all right and that's

573
00:34:05,660 --> 00:34:10,840
all our sats above 2000 and of course don't forget if you're a jupiter party member you get a free

574
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:16,580
member boost when we bring it all together we had 24 of you stream sats and actually got close to

575
00:34:16,580 --> 00:34:17,420
our baller boost.

576
00:34:17,580 --> 00:34:18,000
Collectively,

577
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:18,780
you sat streamers

578
00:34:18,780 --> 00:34:22,820
stacked 57,475 satoshis.

579
00:34:22,940 --> 00:34:24,720
You're doing very well.

580
00:34:24,780 --> 00:34:25,140
Thank you.

581
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:26,400
When you bring it all together,

582
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:26,660
it's really,

583
00:34:26,720 --> 00:34:26,880
I mean,

584
00:34:26,900 --> 00:34:27,740
it's not bad, right?

585
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:28,900
It's just not quite

586
00:34:28,900 --> 00:34:29,540
where it needs to be

587
00:34:29,540 --> 00:34:30,280
to be sustainable.

588
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:31,700
Our total this week

589
00:34:31,700 --> 00:34:34,220
was 213,053.

590
00:34:34,253 --> 00:34:39,773
Satoshis. It's, again, it's like if this, it's really not a bad amount if it hadn't been on the

591
00:34:39,773 --> 00:34:43,313
downward trend continuously, right? If this was just sort of a slow week, but it's been slow weeks

592
00:34:43,313 --> 00:34:47,973
for a bit. So I do very much appreciate that. I don't want to seem like I don't appreciate that.

593
00:34:48,693 --> 00:34:52,773
Just sort of reflecting on where we go from here, but thank you very much. I know every single one

594
00:34:52,773 --> 00:34:57,953
of you who did participate, you are the star, right? Tens of thousands of people will download

595
00:34:57,953 --> 00:35:04,193
this episode and 38 of you participated in this process, in the boost process, plus the members

596
00:35:04,193 --> 00:35:04,693
Thank you, members.

597
00:35:05,033 --> 00:35:06,453
And that just really means a lot to me.

598
00:35:06,513 --> 00:35:07,513
So thank you very much.

599
00:35:07,753 --> 00:35:08,493
Appreciate you.

600
00:35:08,813 --> 00:35:11,113
And now with that, we should continue on with the show.

601
00:35:11,213 --> 00:35:15,613
I just will mention boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com if you would like to send a message.

602
00:35:26,413 --> 00:35:30,013
Okay, this first one, it's a bit odd.

603
00:35:30,013 --> 00:35:37,113
Pete Hegseth, the U.S. Secretary of War, was at a hearing on Capitol Hill about the Iran war.

604
00:35:37,793 --> 00:35:44,173
And the topic of running Bitcoin nodes and Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in warfare came up.

605
00:35:44,833 --> 00:35:48,213
I don't know. It's kind of a notable moment, I suppose.

606
00:35:48,393 --> 00:35:54,493
Over the past decade, Bitcoin has evolved from a fringe asset into a matter of national security.

607
00:35:54,973 --> 00:35:58,893
Iran has demanded Bitcoin as a toll for transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

608
00:35:58,893 --> 00:36:04,733
This is Representative Lance Gooden. He is a Republican from Texas 5th District.

609
00:36:05,013 --> 00:36:13,233
Korean cyber actors have leveraged it in ransomware campaigns, and China is believed to be stockpiling substantial holdings as part of a strategic reserve.

610
00:36:13,793 --> 00:36:19,573
Just last week, EndoPaycom Commander Admiral Paparo stated that Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection,

611
00:36:19,953 --> 00:36:24,933
and he noted that EndoPaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission.

612
00:36:25,293 --> 00:36:25,773
Secretary.

613
00:36:26,613 --> 00:36:27,533
Oh, whoa.

614
00:36:28,033 --> 00:36:34,133
Now, I had heard rumors before, but according to Representative Gooden here from Texas's

615
00:36:34,133 --> 00:36:39,713
powerful 5th District, we are confirming that we're running a Bitcoin node, the military.

616
00:36:40,053 --> 00:36:41,613
What does that node look like?

617
00:36:41,853 --> 00:36:45,013
Something tells me it's probably a bit more powerful than a Raspberry Pi.

618
00:36:45,413 --> 00:36:47,453
Something tells me it might be more than one.

619
00:36:47,713 --> 00:36:50,593
Being a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission.

620
00:36:50,993 --> 00:36:51,473
Secretary.

621
00:36:51,853 --> 00:36:52,693
I'm going to go back even further.

622
00:36:52,693 --> 00:36:55,533
Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection.

623
00:36:55,713 --> 00:36:59,513
And he noted that EndoPaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network.

624
00:37:00,573 --> 00:37:01,133
EndoPaycom.

625
00:37:01,233 --> 00:37:05,093
Anybody out there have any kind of military lingo translator for me?

626
00:37:06,213 --> 00:37:06,773
EndoPaycom.

627
00:37:07,733 --> 00:37:08,773
Endopacific pay.

628
00:37:09,213 --> 00:37:15,153
So like Endopacific, probably some sort of financial arm in the Endopacific area.

629
00:37:15,253 --> 00:37:15,813
I mean, I don't know.

630
00:37:16,293 --> 00:37:21,713
But it sounds like a particular department of the military is running these Bitcoin nodes.

631
00:37:21,713 --> 00:37:33,253
Just last week, Indopaycom Commander Admiral Paparo stated that Bitcoin has direct implications for power projection, and he noted that Indopaycom is operating a node on the Bitcoin network in furtherance of that mission.

632
00:37:33,553 --> 00:37:46,373
Secretary, do you share the opinion that Bitcoin is a tool to project power, and are there any department-wide initiatives to ensure the U.S. secures a strategic advantage in Bitcoin and combats China's digital authoritarianism?

633
00:37:47,213 --> 00:37:49,493
I guess my short answer would be yes and yes.

634
00:37:49,493 --> 00:37:54,693
long and enthusiast of Bitcoin and crypto potential. And a lot of the things we're doing,

635
00:37:54,813 --> 00:37:59,593
enabling it or defeating it is our classified efforts that are ongoing inside our department,

636
00:37:59,593 --> 00:38:03,553
which I do provide do provide us a lot of leverage in a lot of different scenarios.

637
00:38:03,813 --> 00:38:05,633
I appreciate that. And I share your views.

638
00:38:05,953 --> 00:38:10,793
Okay, that's not a great answer. Except it wouldn't surprise me to say the things that

639
00:38:10,793 --> 00:38:14,793
we're doing to defeat it are classified, right? Because that's probably like partnering with

640
00:38:14,793 --> 00:38:20,133
chain analysis and trying to figure out how to get somebody's ETH wallet or their stablecoins.

641
00:38:20,273 --> 00:38:26,753
Like that part doesn't surprise me at all. But then he also said to protect it. What the hell

642
00:38:26,753 --> 00:38:32,853
does that mean? I don't know if I like that. I almost prefer that they're doing the other thing.

643
00:38:33,313 --> 00:38:38,033
I don't know. It's just the entire line of questioning seems notable to me. So I wanted

644
00:38:38,033 --> 00:38:42,873
you to know about it. All right. Here's another thing you should know about. This week, East Texas

645
00:38:42,873 --> 00:38:49,893
A&M University students announced that they have built the first quantum proof security solution for the Bitcoin lightning network.

646
00:38:50,553 --> 00:39:00,650
Yes all aspects of the network need to be quantum safe including the base chain and the lightning Network So the two would have to work together on this And here what we know so far

647
00:39:01,110 --> 00:39:12,830
The technology is called the PQLN layers, and it's a lattice-based algorithm, which is ML-DSA and ML-KEM, which sit on top of existing cryptography without replacing it.

648
00:39:12,830 --> 00:39:21,330
The full code base is nearly 11,000 lines, which were added to the Rust-Lightning fork, and it is live on GitHub for the public to review.

649
00:39:21,970 --> 00:39:29,430
Upgraded nodes stayed interoperable with legacy nodes across 12 mixed node test scenarios with zero stuck payments.

650
00:39:29,870 --> 00:39:40,650
The details I'll link in the show notes, but the other thing that's probably at least worth mentioning is PQLN's benchmark suggests the extra security does come with a heavy price for individual transactions.

651
00:39:40,650 --> 00:39:49,510
the added cryptographic operations clock in at 0.33 milliseconds more per operation a delay that's

652
00:39:49,510 --> 00:39:52,790
unlikely to be noticed by anyone sending and receiving the payment but it is there the bandwidth

653
00:39:52,790 --> 00:39:58,070
tells a more complicated story gossip downloads on the lightning network balloon by roughly 10x

654
00:39:58,070 --> 00:40:04,570
under pqln's default ml dsa settings the cause is larger post-quantum signatures that need more data

655
00:40:04,570 --> 00:40:09,530
to move across the network a theme we see often the researchers those also test an alternative

656
00:40:09,530 --> 00:40:15,390
signature scheme called Falcon, which compresses the overhead down to about 4x.

657
00:40:15,850 --> 00:40:21,990
So we go from 10x to 4x. Still a meaningful increase, they note, but far more manageable

658
00:40:21,990 --> 00:40:26,210
for nodes with limited bandwidth. This is good to see. Not that we're really going to see this

659
00:40:26,210 --> 00:40:32,310
roll out, right? But we now are seeing active solutions for quantum on-chain that don't require

660
00:40:32,310 --> 00:40:37,330
a hard fork. And we're seeing solutions for quantum on lightning that are still interoperable

661
00:40:37,330 --> 00:40:38,290
with the older nodes.

662
00:40:38,690 --> 00:40:40,390
In both cases, they take more data.

663
00:40:40,950 --> 00:40:43,030
But honestly, I'm of the opinion

664
00:40:43,030 --> 00:40:44,510
by the time we're at a point

665
00:40:44,510 --> 00:40:46,330
where quantum computers are going to be a threat,

666
00:40:46,710 --> 00:40:49,130
we'll probably just have more base storage,

667
00:40:49,250 --> 00:40:49,910
more base bandwidth,

668
00:40:50,030 --> 00:40:51,810
because this is not a five-year thing.

669
00:40:51,870 --> 00:40:53,550
This is a 5, 10, 20-year thing.

670
00:40:54,050 --> 00:40:55,130
So I think it's good that we're here.

671
00:40:55,210 --> 00:40:56,190
It's good that we're here already

672
00:40:56,190 --> 00:40:57,530
and that we have proof.

673
00:40:57,750 --> 00:40:59,250
And this week they demonstrated it.

674
00:40:59,430 --> 00:41:00,370
That I like to see.

675
00:41:01,190 --> 00:41:02,790
Okay, something I want to call out specifically,

676
00:41:02,790 --> 00:41:03,909
it was probably pretty obvious,

677
00:41:04,050 --> 00:41:04,750
but I want to make sure

678
00:41:04,750 --> 00:41:06,610
we're just really upfront about it.

679
00:41:06,610 --> 00:41:14,330
A lot of Bitcoin's recent price action in the last week has been driven by ETF purchases, the Bitcoin ETFs.

680
00:41:14,330 --> 00:41:23,630
I want to mention this because watching the Bitcoin ETF flows will tell you a lot about where the spot price momentum is at, where things are going.

681
00:41:24,350 --> 00:41:31,230
Bitcoin magazines has a TV stream now, and they had Bloomberg senior research analyst and an ETF guy on there to explain.

682
00:41:31,490 --> 00:41:36,170
After conviction, we welcome our next guest to the show, James Safer, senior ETF analyst.

683
00:41:36,170 --> 00:41:39,670
at Bloomberg. Hey, James. Hey, guys. Thanks for having me.

684
00:41:40,130 --> 00:41:44,250
Yes, thank you. So we just laid out the numbers there. U.S. bought Bitcoin ETFs,

685
00:41:44,250 --> 00:41:48,930
seeing nearly $1 billion of net inflows in a single day on Monday. What does that level

686
00:41:48,930 --> 00:41:51,730
of demand tell you about where we are in the Bitcoin market right now?

687
00:41:52,450 --> 00:41:56,330
Yeah, things have definitely turned a quarter, and it's not just that one day. If you go back

688
00:41:56,330 --> 00:42:02,270
two days prior, I'll just read them out to you. We're looking at $160, $433, $999, so just shy of

689
00:42:02,270 --> 00:42:07,409
that 1 billion number. And then yesterday was 715. So you go back, you know, just three months ago,

690
00:42:07,409 --> 00:42:11,610
and those numbers were inverse, we were seeing those types of outflows. So this is just kind of

691
00:42:11,610 --> 00:42:16,029
when I look back at like any sort of ETF category, whether it's a digital asset like Bitcoin, or,

692
00:42:16,029 --> 00:42:22,950
you know, some other individual ETF category, like the what you tend to see is things what you want

693
00:42:22,950 --> 00:42:26,610
to see is, you know, that line of assets and flows going up into the right, but you're going to see

694
00:42:26,610 --> 00:42:29,710
pullbacks, like there are times where people are going to take profits, they're going to do those

695
00:42:29,710 --> 00:42:33,930
types of things. And this is just healthy. So right now, we've come out of a pretty bad,

696
00:42:34,050 --> 00:42:38,090
tough area in June and July, where we're seeing tons of outflows. And this is coming back,

697
00:42:38,110 --> 00:42:43,210
and it's coming back in a big way. Now, I'd love your confirmation here. The data I'm looking at

698
00:42:43,210 --> 00:42:48,490
suggests that the average holder's cost basis of these ETFs is around an $82,000 Bitcoin.

699
00:42:49,409 --> 00:42:54,310
And now we're rallying sharply up above that breakeven point, where these investors are

700
00:42:54,310 --> 00:42:58,490
largely in the green, you know, how important is that level to ETF holders?

701
00:42:58,770 --> 00:43:03,590
And, you know, does the fact that, you know, the average ETF investor is now back in profit

702
00:43:03,590 --> 00:43:07,690
tell you anything about the behavior we've seen over the past couple of days or the psychology

703
00:43:07,690 --> 00:43:08,690
behind these investors?

704
00:43:09,130 --> 00:43:23,466
Because really what he asking here if it not totally clear is now that the average ETF holder is back in the green there there probably going to be some selling this is the market works these idiots always sell as soon as they get back in the

705
00:43:23,466 --> 00:43:29,006
green i'd just hold it if you if you just all hold it it'll go up even more but anyways so they do

706
00:43:29,006 --> 00:43:34,126
they sell it not everybody but there is always some profit taking once they get back into the

707
00:43:34,126 --> 00:43:39,846
green and so i think that's sort of what he's asking there yeah so i mean i could i could answer

708
00:43:39,846 --> 00:43:43,246
I could talk about this for like 10 minutes. So you have to cut me off if I go too long, but

709
00:43:43,246 --> 00:43:47,146
the real answer is like, yeah, from like a technical perspective, I mean, this is the

710
00:43:47,146 --> 00:43:51,066
average cost basis. So one, it's like a, it's a resistance level, right? Like people who bought

711
00:43:51,066 --> 00:43:53,926
in and that was their average cost basis. And they were sitting, you know, 20% below,

712
00:43:54,046 --> 00:43:57,966
below their cost basis. They were like, okay, now I'm in profit. I might as well just take it

713
00:43:57,966 --> 00:44:02,546
and just move on with my life. I'm no longer in loss. So it's one, it's, it's smashed through that

714
00:44:02,546 --> 00:44:05,706
resistance level. It's probably going to chop sideways as people make that decision, whether

715
00:44:05,706 --> 00:44:10,766
or not to allocate or take the profits as they've made them. But the other side of it is when you

716
00:44:10,766 --> 00:44:15,466
look at the data, generally people have been buying. I mean, like I said, we saw some outflows,

717
00:44:15,466 --> 00:44:21,486
but from when these things launched in January of 24 until now, until the peak in October 10,

718
00:44:21,586 --> 00:44:26,626
2025, there were $64 billion that came out of these things. That's absolutely smashing success.

719
00:44:26,806 --> 00:44:30,086
We thought they were going to be success. They knocked any of our predictions out of the water.

720
00:44:30,226 --> 00:44:34,326
They knocked pretty much anyone's predictions out of the water. But now, so they pulled back a little

721
00:44:34,326 --> 00:44:39,026
bit to like 53. We're now at 56, 57. So we're just $6 billion away from that all-time high

722
00:44:39,026 --> 00:44:43,406
order mark of money coming into these things. So really, at the end of the day, for the most part,

723
00:44:43,446 --> 00:44:47,666
people have been allocating. When you look at a lot of those outflows, we can see what institutions

724
00:44:47,666 --> 00:44:52,406
were buying these. We don't know what retail is doing. So 70, 75% of the holders of these things

725
00:44:52,406 --> 00:44:56,726
are retail. From an institution's perspective, advisors have been allocating. The only time

726
00:44:56,726 --> 00:45:00,226
they were net sellers was in the first quarter. They were buying in the second quarter. They're

727
00:45:00,226 --> 00:45:03,646
likely buying now. It's hedge funds that we're selling earlier this year, mostly.

728
00:45:04,226 --> 00:45:08,786
It's interesting. A couple of things are at the end. 70% of the ETF holders are retail.

729
00:45:09,286 --> 00:45:14,406
And it was mostly hedge funds at the beginning of the year, but institutional buyers continued

730
00:45:14,406 --> 00:45:19,386
to buy through the dip. So they bought all of those long timers who sold their coins.

731
00:45:19,386 --> 00:45:23,726
They just snapped them up, snapped them up, snapped them up. And that's what they've been doing.

732
00:45:23,726 --> 00:45:31,666
I just and it is interesting too that on average they're basically they have been buying all right

733
00:45:31,666 --> 00:45:36,506
and you know that's what a lot of people say is a lot of the ETF a lot of the ETF purchases on on

734
00:45:36,506 --> 00:45:41,306
the whole on average end up being hobbers all right so I gave pomp and Geordi a hard time I

735
00:45:41,306 --> 00:45:46,886
like both of them pomp's a complicated one for me you know he's he's been around for a while which

736
00:45:46,886 --> 00:45:51,626
means he's taken a few strays he's probably led a few people down the wrong path a couple of times

737
00:45:51,906 --> 00:45:52,906
Maybe intentionally, maybe not.

738
00:45:52,926 --> 00:45:53,286
I don't know.

739
00:45:53,846 --> 00:45:58,726
But the one thing that guys like Pomp and Natalie Burnell and others, they're really good at.

740
00:45:58,726 --> 00:46:09,466
They're not saying they're similar, but I'm saying the things that they both are really good at are being a consistent, well-spoken representative on Bitcoin to the media.

741
00:46:10,486 --> 00:46:15,566
And Fox Business has a show with a guy named Barney or something like that.

742
00:46:15,806 --> 00:46:16,786
He's an older fellow.

743
00:46:16,986 --> 00:46:18,126
He's been around for a while.

744
00:46:18,126 --> 00:46:21,746
and he's just never really liked Bitcoin.

745
00:46:22,386 --> 00:46:24,486
And so when it rips,

746
00:46:24,906 --> 00:46:27,546
he has to take his licks, right?

747
00:46:27,586 --> 00:46:28,346
Or his, what is it?

748
00:46:28,626 --> 00:46:28,986
Lashes?

749
00:46:29,166 --> 00:46:29,506
I don't know.

750
00:46:29,586 --> 00:46:31,126
He has to admit that he was wrong.

751
00:46:31,626 --> 00:46:32,566
And so Pomp comes on there

752
00:46:32,566 --> 00:46:34,246
and they have an interesting conversation.

753
00:46:34,366 --> 00:46:35,946
I thought since I gave Pomp a hard time

754
00:46:35,946 --> 00:46:36,606
earlier in the show,

755
00:46:36,946 --> 00:46:38,466
we'd wrap up with this clip.

756
00:46:38,766 --> 00:46:40,166
For us to bring this technology to everybody.

757
00:46:40,166 --> 00:46:41,606
I remember coming on the show

758
00:46:41,606 --> 00:46:43,226
many, many, many years ago

759
00:46:43,226 --> 00:46:44,286
and saying that Bitcoin

760
00:46:44,286 --> 00:46:46,106
was the be-all and end-all of the future.

761
00:46:46,106 --> 00:46:50,626
And I poo-pooed you. I know I did. I was arguing vigorously with you.

762
00:46:50,626 --> 00:46:50,706
All right, everybody did.

763
00:46:51,266 --> 00:46:58,166
Everybody did, actually, yes. And we all missed out. So how come Bitcoin is now rallying? You're

764
00:46:58,166 --> 00:47:03,246
at 85.9 today. It's rallying. How come it's doing that when the Clarity Act failed?

765
00:47:03,746 --> 00:47:06,786
Well, I've been saying for months now, Bitcoin doesn't need the Clarity Act because Bitcoin

766
00:47:06,786 --> 00:47:11,166
already has clarity. We know what the regulatory treatment of Bitcoin is. But more importantly is

767
00:47:11,166 --> 00:47:14,286
Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to global liquidity.

768
00:47:14,286 --> 00:47:16,966
And the U.S. government for the last month or so

769
00:47:16,966 --> 00:47:17,946
continues to tell us

770
00:47:17,946 --> 00:47:19,806
they are going to print a heck of a lot of money.

771
00:47:19,966 --> 00:47:22,026
We have more than a $40 trillion national debt.

772
00:47:22,166 --> 00:47:23,526
We have more than a trillion dollars annually

773
00:47:23,526 --> 00:47:24,646
in terms of the interest expense.

774
00:47:25,086 --> 00:47:28,446
And Bitcoin has no top because the dollar has no bottom.

775
00:47:28,566 --> 00:47:29,966
And so if the government keeps printing money,

776
00:47:30,406 --> 00:47:43,562
Bitcoin is gonna go way higher in the coming years And I think what you seeing in the last 30 days or so is that once the government Scott Besson at the Treasury said I going to double the purchases We going to print more money Everyone said maybe I should get some Bitcoin in case it catches on

777
00:47:43,682 --> 00:47:47,042
And I think that's what's happening. I'm inclined to go along with you to a point.

778
00:47:47,562 --> 00:47:50,442
I rather like my 5% return on a 10-year Treasury.

779
00:47:50,442 --> 00:48:04,902
it's all right Stuart you can have your five percent we're going to wrap up with the state

780
00:48:04,902 --> 00:48:10,802
of the network let's check in and see how things are doing I'm wrapping up at block height 968

781
00:48:10,802 --> 00:48:15,122
thousand three hundred and six what nine hundred and sixty eight thousand a cool number for some

782
00:48:15,122 --> 00:48:21,042
reason ah nine hundred sixty eight thousand three hundred and seven the current bitcoin price to us

783
00:48:21,042 --> 00:48:28,402
dollar is eighty four thousand one hundred and thirty that puts our stats per dollar at one thousand

784
00:48:28,402 --> 00:48:33,762
one hundred and ninety we are still down thirty three point three percent from our all-time high

785
00:48:34,442 --> 00:48:35,482
Doesn't feel like it, though.

786
00:48:35,762 --> 00:48:38,182
Yes, that was 351 days ago.

787
00:48:38,822 --> 00:48:40,102
October 6, 2025.

788
00:48:40,842 --> 00:48:44,622
Estimated difficulty change is now a downward adjustment of 2.6%.

789
00:48:44,622 --> 00:48:49,762
And nodes on the network, 24,009.

790
00:48:50,102 --> 00:48:51,442
It's an interesting correction as well.

791
00:48:52,262 --> 00:48:54,862
So we're down just a bit in the last 24 hours, 2.6%.

792
00:48:54,862 --> 00:48:58,182
But since the last episode, Bitcoin is up 12%.

793
00:48:58,182 --> 00:48:59,702
Look at it go.

794
00:49:00,182 --> 00:49:01,042
Look at it go.

795
00:49:01,542 --> 00:49:05,422
And of course, that retarget is 1,389 blocks away.

796
00:49:06,782 --> 00:49:09,762
Fees really remain the same that they have been for quite a while.

797
00:49:10,322 --> 00:49:11,582
The network is moving right along.

798
00:49:11,702 --> 00:49:14,522
It's fascinating to watch it adjust, see it adapt in real time.

799
00:49:14,922 --> 00:49:16,322
Of course, the network is strong.

800
00:49:26,742 --> 00:49:29,822
Links to what I talked about are at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

801
00:49:29,822 --> 00:49:39,202
Well, my goal is to give you a show that doesn't get distracted by the emotions about what is happening out there, but focuses on the signal and what you can do for yourself, your friends, your family, your business, your future, whatever it might be.

802
00:49:39,662 --> 00:49:40,242
Let me know.

803
00:49:40,322 --> 00:49:41,722
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.

804
00:49:41,722 --> 00:49:47,202
Remember, I also want to know if you think over the next 30 days, are we going up or are we going down?

805
00:49:47,782 --> 00:49:51,602
Do we go to 70,000 first or do we go to 90,000 first?

806
00:49:52,782 --> 00:49:53,402
What do you think?

807
00:49:53,862 --> 00:49:55,942
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.

808
00:49:56,002 --> 00:49:56,522
Let me know.

809
00:49:56,522 --> 00:50:00,042
And of course, of course, I'd love if you checked out the back catalog.

810
00:50:00,482 --> 00:50:07,342
And if you're in the Austin area during Texas Linux Fest, which is going to be in early November, come say hi.

811
00:50:07,442 --> 00:50:09,522
I think it's like November 7th.

812
00:50:10,482 --> 00:50:13,262
I'll look it up for you right now as I'm wrapping up, lugging it up.

813
00:50:13,382 --> 00:50:22,702
Texas Linux Fest, it is going to be, yes, November 6th through the 7th in Austin, Texas, in the beautiful Austin, Texas, at the Commons or something.

814
00:50:23,162 --> 00:50:24,322
Come around if you're going to be there.

815
00:50:24,362 --> 00:50:24,922
Come say hi.

816
00:50:24,922 --> 00:50:26,302
I'd love to talk Bitcoin with you.

817
00:50:26,302 --> 00:50:28,162
We don't get to do enough meetups on this show.

818
00:50:28,702 --> 00:50:30,382
So you can look up Texas Linux Fest.

819
00:50:30,702 --> 00:50:32,982
You, of course, can attend and come say hi there as well.

820
00:50:33,442 --> 00:50:34,642
And I'd love to hang out.

821
00:50:35,002 --> 00:50:37,042
And maybe, maybe that'll be one of the goals.

822
00:50:37,902 --> 00:50:39,082
You know, we turn things around.

823
00:50:39,762 --> 00:50:40,962
Support keeps coming in good.

824
00:50:41,042 --> 00:50:43,042
Maybe one of the goals is to start doing more of those meetups.

825
00:50:43,102 --> 00:50:45,282
Because I think that'd be another way to keep the energy high on the show

826
00:50:45,282 --> 00:50:48,542
and hear what people are really doing and how they're really using Bitcoin

827
00:50:48,542 --> 00:50:49,982
and improve the show with that.

828
00:50:50,402 --> 00:50:50,642
All right.

829
00:50:50,842 --> 00:50:51,522
Thanks for listening.

830
00:50:51,762 --> 00:50:53,442
See you back here next week.

831
00:50:56,302 --> 00:51:26,282
Thank you.

832
00:51:26,302 --> 00:51:56,282
Thank you.

833
00:51:56,302 --> 00:51:56,802
you