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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 113.

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My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupiterBroadcasting.com.

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Things are moving fast this summer.

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The situation is sometimes changing multiple times in a single week, and this was one of those.

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I'm going to try to keep it as focused and tight as possible, get you back to your summer as fast as possible.

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So let's just start with the news that I think none of us were surprised by.

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Early this week, things were looking rough for Bitcoin.

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At least in the short term, of course.

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As I feared, the U.S.'s memo of understanding with Iran has fallen apart.

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I don't think any of us were too surprised by this particular news.

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Overnight, the U.S. launching a new round of strikes against Iran as the war is now clearly back on.

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For five hours, the U.S. striking Iranian military targets, including coastal defense systems and missile and drone sites.

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Iran responding, striking two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Bahrain and Jordan also confirming they intercepted a number of Iranian missiles overnight.

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Iran and the U.S. now battling for control of the Strait of Hormuz.

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After Iran announced it's closing down the critical waterway,

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the president now reinstating the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

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Going even further, Trump declaring the U.S. will soon become, quote,

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the guardian of the Hormuz Strait and announcing plans to charge a 20 percent fee on all cargo that passes through it.

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We're spending money. And so what we've done is we are going to be reimbursed for protection.

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That plan directly contradicts what his own secretary of state, Marco Rubio, said just days ago.

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The charging a fee would violate international law.

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No country is allowed to charge tolls or fees on an international waterway.

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That's existing international law. That's the way it is in international waterways all over the world.

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And that's the way we expect it'll be here.

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Before Trump launched this war, the strait was an international waterway, ships able to pass through freely.

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Now, if Trump's fee goes into effect, a massive oil tanker transporting two million barrels could have to pay the U.S. upwards of $32 million.

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I just doubt that's going to happen. Seems like a negotiation tactic to me.

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But either way, as they always say, the market just hates uncertainty.

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Goodness, you know, I thought the traders love the vol, but I guess not this kind of vol.

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We just have this nagging sort of energy issue just as things were starting to turn around, which we'll have more on that in a moment.

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We have this news. And, you know, what's been on my mind are the oil reserves, because we all know that the Western nations, like the U.S., drew down supply in order to support the market.

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America's emergency stockpile of oil needs a refill.

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The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to 331 million barrels.

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That is the lowest point since 1983 when it was first being filled.

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In tonight's Good Question, Jeff Wagner explains how the reserve works and why it has fallen so far.

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There's a chance the gas you're pumping into your car was made with oil from America's emergency stockpile.

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Not because the country is suddenly low on fuel, but to slow the eye-popping ascent of prices due to the war with Iran.

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What is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve? Good question.

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The Strategic Reserve was created after the Arab oil embargo back in the late 70s,

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and it's been the source that America has turned to during times of disruption.

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The oil is stored at several sites along the Gulf Coast between Texas and Louisiana.

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GasBuddy analyst Patrick DeHaan says it's basically a backup.

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Presidents have leaned on it in case of global emergencies.

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11 million barrels were released in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina damaged pipelines and refineries.

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When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Biden authorized 180 million barrels be released.

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Then this March, President Trump ordered 172 million barrels to be released.

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He took that action after Iran retaliated by choking off the Strait of Hormuz.

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172 million, 180 million kind of gives you the numbers when there's an emergency.

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So right now, the U.S. Reserve is around 331 million barrels of oil.

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I know we all have short memories these days, but does anyone remember just three weeks ago,

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episode 110, where I played a clip of Trump saying at the G7 summit, just shortly after

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the memo of understanding had been signed, he said the quiet part out loud.

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I couldn't believe it.

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I had to play it in the updates.

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He said we had four weeks of oil left, and if they hadn't stopped the fighting, there was going to be bedlam.

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If we keep bombing, those ships won't be going.

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And you're talking about $500, $600, $700 million a day.

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It's a lot of money.

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A lot of money.

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That's why the world is okay.

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It's liquid.

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It's fine.

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Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks.

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You know, there are reserves all over the world, and we would really run out.

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and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it.

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And you want to see bedlam?

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Yeah, well, I don't want to see bedlam,

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which I guess means chaos.

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But it's not just the nation reserves.

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Its commercial reserves are down too.

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So just looking at the U.S. in this month, July,

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as of the 10th, they've decreased by 1.7 million barrels.

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So commercial reserves are around 409 million barrels

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sitting in their inventory.

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So national stockpiles and commercial inventories

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are lower than they normally would be right now.

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The United States, for example, consumes an average of 19.5 to 20.6 million barrels of oil a day.

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Tends to be a little higher in the summer.

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So let's go with 20 million.

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The U.S. consumes 20 million barrels a day, just the U.S.

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So right now, we have about 20 days of commercial inventory.

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So less than a month of oil usage is currently on hand in the commercial inventories.

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China consumes 16.4 million barrels a day.

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The EU consumes about 10.5 million barrels a day.

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Canada consumes roughly 2.38 million barrels a day.

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And the UK consumes approximately 1.4 million barrels a day.

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Just a little bit of itty bitty.

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Overall, the world consumes approximately 102 to 105 million barrels of oil a day.

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And there's some other petroleum products in there as well.

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So we had a pause with the fighting, but that wasn't enough to restock supply.

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We just we have we have a lot of things to get production levels back up to normal.

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We're not there yet.

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So I'm going to play a clip here from Bob McNally.

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He's from Rapid and Energy Group.

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They follow this stuff.

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That's where they that's the whole sector.

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It's just energy and trades on energy.

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And this is his take.

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Is we won't know for many months, many months.

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First, we have to flush the barrels that are in boats.

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It's, you know, 47 crude tankers, 71 product tankers, 153 crude product LNG.

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They have to leave.

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And then the empty ones have to fill up storage.

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Then we have to see our Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE willing to restart their fields.

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How much damage has been done to their production capacity, particularly Iraq?

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And so we won't know really for many months if the Gulf producers can get back to their

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old production levels.

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Some may try to go higher, like the UAE, which has left OPEC.

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So great mysteries, great uncertainty on this.

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The only thing to know for sure, we're not going to know next month.

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We're not going to know in August.

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Here's what we are going to know in the next couple of months.

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And this is what makes this so fascinating, Kaylee, is that while we're starting up Hormuz, if that works well, we are going to dig deeper into inventories.

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We are already 11-year seasonal lows in gasoline in the United States, 29-year seasonal low in distillate.

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And 43 years just was announced on the SPR.

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Yeah, the strategic reserve.

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So he's saying while they're trying to get the, even if things go well, even if they go well while they're trying to get the straight open, we're still going to have to dig into the reserves.

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To say nothing I guess if the straight doesn go well And 43 years just was announced on the SPR and we going lower still That just the math of this whole working its way through So we have the Hormuz good news

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but it's going to take a while, months, to really filter into meaningful volumes.

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Meanwhile, we have to reckon with these stock draws. Well, so to that point, Bob, if it's going

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to take months for the volumes to return, as you're saying. Is that volume just going to meet

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the daily demand? How much of that will be able to contribute to the rebuilding of the stockpiles,

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not just here in the U.S., but in every other country that has had to rely on its reserves and

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draw those down to get through this period? Well, if over the coming many months we can get back to

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15, 20 million barrels a day, there will be demand for that crude, even more demand than before

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in some ways. China, I understand, is going to want to build even bigger reserves than it had

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before. Every country in Asia, and I would think some here, perhaps in the United States and Europe,

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are alarmed by the prolonged nature of this historic disruption, and they're going to be

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building or increasing their strategic reserves. That means more crude. Asia has been on a crash

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diet since late February. They have just held their breath and are not eating and not drinking

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any crude. Well, you can't do that forever. So that demand is going to soar back. And there is

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a risk, Kayleigh, that the demand, this pent-up demand that has been suppressed in Asia, combined

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with this eagerness to top off and refill and increase strategic reserves, that could get ahead

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of the pace at which the oil supply from the Arabian Gulf returns to the market. So I think

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we're getting close to a bottom here in prices. I'll be surprised if we can sustainably go much

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lower. And there's a lot of reason why prices will go up from here. So I think the number to watch

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is somewhere around 15 to 20 million barrels a day. If we can get that to that level of production,

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that's where inventories could probably start to rebuild. But there's going to be a lot of

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uncertainties and there could be that Asia surprise as he puts it in there. So I feel like right now

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the narrative around energy seems to be shrugging off the situation with Iran.

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And they're assuming, well, we all expected to dust up.

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So they're assuming this is probably going to just be a little dust up and it'll pass.

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If that doesn't turn out to be the case, I think we should expect and brace ourselves

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for a narrative shift around energy to get pretty negative at some point in August.

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And that would be my expectation.

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And that's generally going to be, you know, doom and gloom about rates and the way they

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just the way they jump around.

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They'll completely forget this week.

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Just watch. Just watch.

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Well, speaking of inflation, you know, we had this mixed energy news, which was sort of bad for Bitcoin short term price action.

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But then some good news came along.

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And, you know, I feel like the market acts like a dog in a cage.

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And then its owner, the Fed, comes along with a leash from time to time and gives it some relief.

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And it just is so happy and it completely forgives the Fed for everything.

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Whatever.

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This week's CPI came in at 3.5%, which was cooler than expected.

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And it revived the whole, oh, the rate cuts are on hold bet.

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Everybody figured, OK, this is good news.

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Rates are on hold.

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That helped push Bitcoin up a little bit as that bet went into effect.

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To be clear, though, this is just the expectations on what the Fed might do.

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Right.

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All this is happening on the expectations of what they might do.

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And 3.5% CPI, I don't know if you know this, it's not 2%.

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So this is what's so crazy about our current world.

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That means inflation has come in above the 2% target 64 times in a row.

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And the market, the market is bullish.

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All right, let's turn back to last month's consumer price index.

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Prices actually down 0.4%.

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It's the largest negative reading since 2020 and the pandemic.

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John Lonsky is with me.

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that's a dip in consumer prices.

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Surely we're not talking now about a rate increase, are we?

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You're exactly right.

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There's not going to be a rate hike anytime soon.

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I don't think there's going to be a rate hike into the foreseeable future.

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That being said, in response to this good report on the CPI,

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this disinflationary report,

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the futures market still has an implied probability,

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I think of 59% to a rate hike at the September meeting of the FOMC and an 81% chance of Fed

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funds having been raised by the end of this year.

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I don't buy the markets.

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We'll get back to that.

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But I just I love just how I don't know, confident he is and just how, oh, man, it's so great.

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It's so great.

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It's only three point five percent.

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Woo, baby.

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We licked it.

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Yeah, but I think he might actually be right about the rate hikes getting canceled.

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But we'll come back to that later.

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What's going on here, and you probably guessed it, CPI data, it's always a little behind, right?

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It's reflecting a brief ceasefire with Iran.

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And oil prices immediately, energy prices immediately came down when that memo of understanding was signed.

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But, you know, regardless, lower than expected.

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If you get a print lower than expected with a negative handle on it, that generates buzz.

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And all of this buzz was happening right before the new Fed chair, your buddy, Kevin Warsh, had his first congressional testimony.

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These are a big deal. And the Congress critters try to get everything they can out of them.

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And you can bet your bottom sat that the topic of inflation came up.

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Now, Warsh, it's a kind of a dramatic opening he makes in his statement this morning.

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But again, no guidance. He says the U.S. is at a hinge point in history.

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and their task is to ensure that the economy excels into the future.

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In the text of the testimony, Walsh says the key to that is bringing inflation down.

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Quote, while monthly price fluctuations are inevitable, especially in an unsettled world,

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underlying inflation over long time horizons is determined largely by monetary policy.

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The members of our committee have no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation,

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and we share a resolute commitment to restoring price stability.

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Now, what's missing from that statement is any mention of how they plan to do that,

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whether they plan to raise or lower interest rates or hold them.

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Nothing on that in the text.

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Yeah, well, we couldn't tell you about our future plans.

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Now, Kevin's preferred way to measure inflation, i.e. trimmed PCE, that came up

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because he's mentioned this before and he's tried to distance himself from it a bit.

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And while he doesn't completely disavow trimmed PCE, he seems to instead just kind of say all our ways of measuring inflation are bogus.

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while trim mean PCE stood at only 3.6%, a divergence of nearly two percentage points.

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And so here's my question. If trim mean PCE detected the inflation shock later,

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understated its severity, and diverged from core PCE by nearly two percentage points,

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why should the Fed place greater weight on it when setting monetary policy? And to put a final

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point on it, your core criticism of the Fed is that it was behind the curve on inflation.

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that same criticism can be leveled against your preferred measure on inflation. So why the

221
00:16:17,894 --> 00:16:24,754
disconnect? So none of those are very good measures of underlying inflation. That Wall Street Journal

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00:16:24,754 --> 00:16:30,874
story that you referenced is incorrect, that I have a preferred measure from one of the reserve

223
00:16:30,874 --> 00:16:35,794
banks. If I had a preferred measure, I wouldn't have called for a task force to go back to first

224
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principles, and the data task force will be looking importantly at inflation measures.

225
00:16:41,854 --> 00:16:47,674
My view is that we need new measures to understand the underlying changes in inflation.

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Am I interested in what's the mean or median price of a good in a big box retailer?

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You bet I am.

228
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And none of these measures capture that.

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I am super interested in finding new measures to do a better job to help us inform our decisions

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so that the inflation of the last five years don't continue.

231
00:17:07,554 --> 00:17:10,654
Sounds like Kevin needs to get himself a subscription to Truflation.

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Now Congressman Brad Sherman from the 32nd Congressional District of the brave and proud California he held his seat for nearly 30 years and he has worked hard for the people of

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the banks. And at every single one of these hearings, and you'll have to excuse me for

234
00:17:28,629 --> 00:17:32,649
getting a little worked up here because I've watched a lot of clips of this guy,

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and I've watched a lot of testimony, and I've had to put up with this guy now for years.

236
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And I find him to be so obnoxious because his intentions are so obvious,

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and his loyalties are not with the 32nd Congressional District of California.

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Let me tell you that.

239
00:17:46,869 --> 00:17:51,629
And so he has to sit there and ask Warsh some of the really dumb questions.

240
00:17:52,129 --> 00:17:55,829
And he's asking the Federal Reserve Chair of the United States

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00:17:55,829 --> 00:17:59,248
if he plans to bail out, quote unquote, crypto.

242
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I still have the scars from the 2008 financial crisis.

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Oh, my God.

244
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You know, oh, this stuff, too.

245
00:18:07,369 --> 00:18:08,329
There's a lot of this.

246
00:18:08,329 --> 00:18:13,448
I cut just the tail of this, but a lot of this, I'm such a hero.

247
00:18:13,669 --> 00:18:22,029
You know, we have the scars from the 2008 financial crisis that inevitably made me one of the most filthy rich people you know.

248
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And my entire family has generational wealth now.

249
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And the scars from that, they stay with us.

250
00:18:27,669 --> 00:18:28,129
Oh, yes.

251
00:18:28,369 --> 00:18:29,488
Yes, they stay with us all.

252
00:18:29,589 --> 00:18:29,849
Yes.

253
00:18:30,589 --> 00:18:33,909
I still have the scars from the 2008 financial crisis.

254
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We all do.

255
00:18:34,609 --> 00:18:37,329
I still have the scars from the extraordinary.

256
00:18:37,329 --> 00:18:42,008
The extraordinary efforts that my colleagues and I under Chairman Bernanke's leadership had to do.

257
00:18:42,208 --> 00:18:44,369
That is not something we want to repeat.

258
00:18:44,789 --> 00:18:47,089
No, it takes a lot of work to print that much money.

259
00:18:47,188 --> 00:18:52,668
You assure us that we need that you will not be bailing out stablecoin and cryptocurrency.

260
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So I don't want to.

261
00:18:54,869 --> 00:18:56,188
I can't even say it right.

262
00:18:56,188 --> 00:19:03,488
After all these years of trolling these stablecoin and cryptocurrency, bailing out stablecoin and cryptocurrency.

263
00:19:04,309 --> 00:19:05,089
So I don't want to.

264
00:19:05,329 --> 00:19:07,269
I can be more broadly than that.

265
00:19:07,329 --> 00:19:10,129
We do not want to be in the bailout business full stop.

266
00:19:11,228 --> 00:19:18,389
But your predecessor did provide a liquidity function for money market funds.

267
00:19:18,668 --> 00:19:24,109
If, God forbid, we faced a similar circumstance in the crypto world, would you bail them out?

268
00:19:24,948 --> 00:19:28,049
So I want to be very clear.

269
00:19:28,349 --> 00:19:33,468
We're going to do everything we can to mitigate those sorts of extraordinary risks.

270
00:19:33,468 --> 00:19:37,508
if and when they were to come in the next four years.

271
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We want to be in a position

272
00:19:38,869 --> 00:19:41,428
we're not bailing out anybody, including crypto.

273
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Does anybody know what scenario

274
00:19:44,389 --> 00:19:46,049
Brad might be talking about there, right?

275
00:19:46,069 --> 00:19:48,029
Because the stable coins are backed by treasuries.

276
00:19:48,569 --> 00:19:50,708
So wouldn't you have to have some sort of collapse

277
00:19:50,708 --> 00:19:53,889
in the treasury market to have stable coins collapse?

278
00:19:53,928 --> 00:19:55,109
Or am I missing something there?

279
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Boost in, if you know.

280
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As always, the topic of artificial intelligence

281
00:19:59,728 --> 00:20:01,948
and the impact on jobs and the economy,

282
00:20:01,948 --> 00:20:16,488
It comes up. And like before, I think I am hearing the beginning of a theory, a basis, perhaps even an economic philosophy, if you will, from which the Fed could derive future policy.

283
00:20:16,488 --> 00:20:29,109
If this cycle, Congressman, is like the previous positive technology shocks, the U.S. will be richer, will be more productive, there'll be more labor, there'll be more wages, there'll be more compensation.

284
00:20:30,428 --> 00:20:37,508
That is, if this follows prior trends, this technology shock is likely more significant.

285
00:20:37,829 --> 00:20:44,049
This is probably the biggest change in my adult lifetime because it's not just the creation of a new widget.

286
00:20:44,909 --> 00:20:49,589
What it is, it's changing the method of innovation and the speed of innovation.

287
00:20:50,149 --> 00:20:54,208
And I can't think of a country on earth as well positioned to take advantage of it.

288
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So that's on the one hand.

289
00:20:56,269 --> 00:20:59,248
But on the other hand, it can lead to disruption.

290
00:20:59,649 --> 00:21:06,488
My own best guess is that the advent of the technology will be augmenting existing work,

291
00:21:07,129 --> 00:21:09,928
that employees that were there will be more productive.

292
00:21:09,928 --> 00:21:12,549
and ultimately at the end of the day,

293
00:21:12,609 --> 00:21:14,908
I don't believe in the lump of labor fallacy.

294
00:21:15,069 --> 00:21:17,389
All the jobs that are there have already been created

295
00:21:17,389 --> 00:21:19,609
and the technology will remove some.

296
00:21:19,968 --> 00:21:22,569
Well, it might be disruptive in the near term.

297
00:21:22,908 --> 00:21:24,488
It'll create a lot of other jobs.

298
00:21:24,488 --> 00:21:26,228
Just to give one example from history.

299
00:21:26,488 --> 00:21:27,869
You know, I think before I let him continue,

300
00:21:27,869 --> 00:21:29,849
what's hard to appreciate is

301
00:21:29,849 --> 00:21:32,569
this is a strong opinion from a Fed chair.

302
00:21:32,829 --> 00:21:37,408
They don't typically articulate a position this thoroughly.

303
00:21:37,609 --> 00:21:39,129
And what he's essentially laying out here

304
00:21:39,129 --> 00:21:42,228
is that he thinks there's going to be a productivity boom,

305
00:21:42,428 --> 00:21:44,008
i.e. justification possibly,

306
00:21:44,629 --> 00:21:47,668
for rate decreases, maybe?

307
00:21:47,869 --> 00:21:48,208
I don't know.

308
00:21:48,488 --> 00:21:49,809
Because what he's saying is

309
00:21:49,809 --> 00:21:51,748
we may have a temporary productivity boom

310
00:21:51,748 --> 00:21:54,248
that is in the short-term inflationary,

311
00:21:54,329 --> 00:21:56,549
but I don't think it's going to lead to an employment loss,

312
00:21:56,769 --> 00:21:59,269
so it may justify cutting rates at a certain point,

313
00:21:59,349 --> 00:22:02,609
even when it wouldn't be necessarily obvious at the time.

314
00:22:04,329 --> 00:22:05,389
Listen to what he's saying.

315
00:22:05,869 --> 00:22:07,508
That is essentially the setup here.

316
00:22:07,508 --> 00:22:13,649
already been created and the technology will remove some. Well, it might be disruptive in

317
00:22:13,649 --> 00:22:17,968
the near term. It'll create a lot of other jobs. Just to give one example from history,

318
00:22:18,089 --> 00:22:22,908
and then I'll close. Who knew at the creation of the internet that the internet would create

319
00:22:22,908 --> 00:22:28,408
a million and a half Uber and Lyft drivers? I certainly didn't. So I want to be very open-minded

320
00:22:28,408 --> 00:22:34,728
about the job producing elements of it. But we have a day job and it's to deliver on price

321
00:22:34,728 --> 00:22:40,029
stability and full employment. Sounds to me like if they can find any data saying they see some

322
00:22:40,029 --> 00:22:45,089
productivity boom associated with AI, they might have a playbook of new rules they get to follow

323
00:22:45,089 --> 00:22:49,728
through this new economic theory. I mean, it's not locked in yet, but what is locked in is they're

324
00:22:49,728 --> 00:22:54,049
going to have to come up with something. They're going to have to come up with something. And what

325
00:22:54,049 --> 00:23:01,069
I noticed watching the testimony in full is the Fed chair and many in Congress seem to be very aware

326
00:23:01,069 --> 00:23:08,769
of the impact on asset owners and non-asset owners when the Fed prints money or when the

327
00:23:08,769 --> 00:23:14,569
Fed adjust rates up or down, i.e. when they take those actions that lead to asset inflation

328
00:23:14,569 --> 00:23:18,508
and lead to non-asset owners getting smashed in the economy.

329
00:23:19,869 --> 00:23:26,089
They are 100% aware of the second order effects because it came up multiple times.

330
00:23:26,089 --> 00:23:29,648
There wasn't any one particular section that was worth clipping.

331
00:23:29,649 --> 00:23:31,488
It was just sort of quick off hands.

332
00:23:31,629 --> 00:23:32,748
Yes, of course, we know this.

333
00:23:33,029 --> 00:23:34,269
Yes, of course, this is just accepted.

334
00:23:34,529 --> 00:23:37,649
This is obvious, which you go back a couple of years.

335
00:23:37,728 --> 00:23:38,928
These things were not just accepted.

336
00:23:39,008 --> 00:23:40,049
These things were not just obvious.

337
00:23:40,589 --> 00:23:44,129
There's even still a little bit of debate in this testimony around it.

338
00:23:45,909 --> 00:23:53,869
So I think we now have a good indication of why Warsh and so many like him own a little bit of Bitcoin.

339
00:23:59,649 --> 00:24:07,769
Let's do a quick BIP 110 update this week.

340
00:24:07,849 --> 00:24:12,409
We're about 23 days out from the big transition.

341
00:24:13,168 --> 00:24:14,109
Pretty exciting.

342
00:24:14,109 --> 00:24:21,549
As the clock goes right now, it looks like we are set for August 8th, and it's at 1044 a.m.

343
00:24:21,549 --> 00:24:26,269
Of course, that changes depending on how fast the blocks are clearing.

344
00:24:26,269 --> 00:24:34,029
But we have, as of this recording, 3,456 blocks remaining until the switch.

345
00:24:34,269 --> 00:24:36,129
So I wanted to just do a couple of quick things.

346
00:24:36,208 --> 00:24:40,008
There's not a lot to dig into this week because it's sort of we're just moving through this process.

347
00:24:41,149 --> 00:24:44,168
August 8th right now is the estimated time of arrival.

348
00:24:44,529 --> 00:24:53,508
That's when the network enters mandatory signaling period, meaning that any block that doesn't signal bit four gets rejected as invalid on the BIP 110 chain.

349
00:24:53,508 --> 00:24:54,968
It's not necessarily a deadline, though.

350
00:24:55,008 --> 00:24:56,248
That's just the vote process.

351
00:24:56,269 --> 00:25:05,748
And as of right now, the vote's at 0.99% in favor of BIP-110 signaling via mining.

352
00:25:06,269 --> 00:25:11,428
100% of that signaling is coming from ocean, as we expected last week.

353
00:25:12,248 --> 00:25:18,269
I would not be surprised if they even reach the 2% threshold temporarily, but they're just

354
00:25:18,269 --> 00:25:21,289
about to crack 1% via ocean in favor.

355
00:25:21,748 --> 00:25:23,409
The threshold is 55%.

356
00:25:23,409 --> 00:25:31,769
They have until August 22nd, block height 963,648 to reach that 55% signaling.

357
00:25:32,148 --> 00:25:39,769
If that happens, then the one-year rules will go into effect on September 5th at block height 965,664.

358
00:25:40,188 --> 00:25:41,208
If it happens.

359
00:25:42,188 --> 00:25:45,148
Bitcoin long-timer and CEO of Jan3, Samson Mao,

360
00:25:45,289 --> 00:25:49,128
he's known for consensus and protocol views and commentary on that for a long time now.

361
00:25:49,129 --> 00:26:02,283
In this clip he responding to a common argument made by the pro filter chain BIP110 group that argue well Segwit didn really have a lot of support initially just like BIP doesn but it was eventually adopted I don want to put words in your mouth

362
00:26:02,383 --> 00:26:03,983
but you said something along the lines of like,

363
00:26:04,083 --> 00:26:06,323
you feel like BIP-110 is doomed to fail, basically,

364
00:26:06,423 --> 00:26:08,143
or like you don't think it's going to actually work.

365
00:26:08,903 --> 00:26:09,743
Why is that?

366
00:26:10,723 --> 00:26:13,403
Well, it doesn't have consensus.

367
00:26:13,843 --> 00:26:19,223
So there are a lot of comparisons to the block size wars

368
00:26:19,223 --> 00:26:21,503
and activation of Segwit,

369
00:26:21,503 --> 00:26:32,643
But there was major consensus that Segwit was the path forward for the network to fix the malleability bug and to enable lightning.

370
00:26:33,303 --> 00:26:40,203
And it was just a few people blocking it for financial gain, personal gain, ASIC boost.

371
00:26:40,643 --> 00:26:47,063
And it was really more about the activation mechanism and activation timeline over the change itself.

372
00:26:47,063 --> 00:26:53,343
whereas 110 and everything it does not have consensus especially amongst technical

373
00:26:53,343 --> 00:27:01,083
development experts you know people that actually work on the software and even outside of that

374
00:27:01,083 --> 00:27:05,523
there are a lot of ordinary people using bitcoin that don't agree with it either so it's a very

375
00:27:05,523 --> 00:27:10,783
small group of people that really want to push this forward and they can be very aggressive and

376
00:27:10,783 --> 00:27:16,843
nasty so it's not a good combination for building consensus and that is exactly what you need to do

377
00:27:16,843 --> 00:27:18,563
to get change in Bitcoin.

378
00:27:19,063 --> 00:27:21,163
But all of the technical arguments aside,

379
00:27:21,403 --> 00:27:22,303
I go back to,

380
00:27:23,043 --> 00:27:25,283
you should not be forced to need to worry

381
00:27:25,283 --> 00:27:27,163
about something urgently for Bitcoin.

382
00:27:27,623 --> 00:27:29,263
Like, that's just not the case.

383
00:27:29,863 --> 00:27:33,023
Right now, 110 is popular,

384
00:27:33,323 --> 00:27:33,883
it's fashionable,

385
00:27:34,283 --> 00:27:35,203
people are rallying,

386
00:27:35,743 --> 00:27:38,023
a small group of people are rallying behind it.

387
00:27:38,143 --> 00:27:39,803
And I'll get blasted for everything I've said here

388
00:27:39,803 --> 00:27:41,043
because, you know,

389
00:27:41,043 --> 00:27:42,143
if you're not on their side,

390
00:27:42,223 --> 00:27:43,003
you're their enemy.

391
00:27:43,183 --> 00:27:44,603
But I don't view it that way.

392
00:27:44,803 --> 00:27:46,403
Like, I empathize with them

393
00:27:46,403 --> 00:27:49,703
and why they're upset with Bitcoin development in general.

394
00:27:50,523 --> 00:27:53,343
But that's not really the path forward.

395
00:27:53,543 --> 00:27:56,743
But my point is, if you take away,

396
00:27:57,403 --> 00:28:00,963
if you replaced all the figureheads of the 110 movement

397
00:28:00,963 --> 00:28:03,283
and you pick something else,

398
00:28:03,923 --> 00:28:09,143
like who in your view are the major ringleaders for 110?

399
00:28:09,843 --> 00:28:10,143
Luke?

400
00:28:10,143 --> 00:28:18,383
i think luke um matt matthew cratter and probably bitcoin mechanic are the people i've heard the most

401
00:28:18,383 --> 00:28:29,423
firm on it so people agree with them they they like them and you have to kind of take a higher

402
00:28:29,423 --> 00:28:36,603
level view of this and think from a more macro perspective so let's replace uh those three people

403
00:28:36,603 --> 00:28:37,723
with, I don't know,

404
00:28:38,443 --> 00:28:39,703
three other people for something.

405
00:28:39,963 --> 00:28:41,603
Like, what was the last thing

406
00:28:41,603 --> 00:28:43,183
that was urgent for Bitcoin?

407
00:28:44,043 --> 00:28:45,323
Making Bitcoin quantum resistant.

408
00:28:46,003 --> 00:28:48,103
So you replace that with Nick Carter,

409
00:28:48,903 --> 00:28:52,303
who invested in the Project 11 thing

410
00:28:52,303 --> 00:28:54,423
to help blockchain secure themselves

411
00:28:54,423 --> 00:28:55,603
against quantum attacks.

412
00:28:57,103 --> 00:28:58,863
You put a podcaster in there

413
00:28:58,863 --> 00:29:00,263
to replace Matt, like, I don't know,

414
00:29:00,343 --> 00:29:01,303
Mark Moss, right?

415
00:29:01,903 --> 00:29:03,603
And then, I don't know,

416
00:29:03,683 --> 00:29:05,343
pick someone else that goes in there

417
00:29:05,343 --> 00:29:06,683
is a...

418
00:29:06,683 --> 00:29:08,523
A Bitcoin mechanic equivalent?

419
00:29:09,403 --> 00:29:10,943
I don't know, someone, whatever.

420
00:29:11,103 --> 00:29:11,983
But you get the idea, right?

421
00:29:12,403 --> 00:29:12,623
Sure.

422
00:29:13,343 --> 00:29:15,003
Just because they make a big fuss,

423
00:29:15,303 --> 00:29:16,523
there are some nodes running it,

424
00:29:16,763 --> 00:29:18,763
there's like 1% of hash rate signaling,

425
00:29:19,303 --> 00:29:21,043
that's not consensus.

426
00:29:21,463 --> 00:29:24,303
And you as a 110 supporter

427
00:29:24,303 --> 00:29:27,503
would absolutely be against that, right?

428
00:29:28,863 --> 00:29:29,963
I would think so.

429
00:29:30,443 --> 00:29:31,263
Well, yeah, yeah, yeah.

430
00:29:31,443 --> 00:29:32,963
And the argument that they're saying

431
00:29:32,963 --> 00:29:34,043
is that there's like,

432
00:29:34,043 --> 00:29:40,063
there would be reason for miners to wait to the last minute to signal or something like that like

433
00:29:40,063 --> 00:29:46,963
from this game theory perspective i mean you can say that but uh i don't see that as the case at

434
00:29:46,963 --> 00:29:50,963
all if you look what do you think of knots like the fact that you know i think knots has gone from

435
00:29:50,963 --> 00:29:58,343
zero to to 20 percent you can't just look at node signaling that's a easy sybil attack right anybody

436
00:29:58,343 --> 00:30:01,743
can spin up a node i'm not saying that they're fake there are definitely real people running

437
00:30:01,743 --> 00:30:08,123
knots nodes i know them right but if you look at some of the like i i read my feed like um i i see

438
00:30:08,123 --> 00:30:12,343
people like they're saying i'm running knots but i'm switching back to core because now knots is

439
00:30:12,343 --> 00:30:19,603
saying i have to signal for 110 right so now you're being forced to do a change yeah funny that

440
00:30:19,603 --> 00:30:24,223
adam back and michael saylor publicly opposed bip 110 over the weekend of course adam back has been

441
00:30:24,223 --> 00:30:29,823
for quite a while but saylor continues to post about it as of even later today so i think the

442
00:30:29,823 --> 00:30:36,583
question for August 8th probably isn't if BIP 110 passes and probably won't. It's whether the

443
00:30:36,583 --> 00:30:42,723
network stalls a hash rate minority into a chain split and if the proposal just quietly fails or,

444
00:30:43,503 --> 00:30:49,863
which I doubt it, or what they do after that. So I don't know. I don't know where they go after

445
00:30:49,863 --> 00:30:54,463
that. I can't say I'm not a mind reader, but that, there you go. There's your BIP 110 update.

446
00:30:54,463 --> 00:30:57,383
Okay, so I have a question for you.

447
00:30:58,363 --> 00:31:00,583
One topic next week, what do you want it to be?

448
00:31:00,783 --> 00:31:03,103
Boost in, and the idea I like the most,

449
00:31:03,203 --> 00:31:04,803
I'll dedicate next week's episode to.

450
00:31:04,983 --> 00:31:06,243
Why, why you ask?

451
00:31:06,823 --> 00:31:07,623
Well, I'm traveling,

452
00:31:07,863 --> 00:31:09,403
and I'm gonna be recording a bit earlier

453
00:31:09,403 --> 00:31:11,803
so the news won't really have all the time to play out.

454
00:31:12,143 --> 00:31:13,463
I mean, if something obvious happens,

455
00:31:13,523 --> 00:31:14,363
I'm gonna cover that.

456
00:31:14,943 --> 00:31:16,663
But I still want you to have an episode

457
00:31:16,663 --> 00:31:18,663
while I'm on the road, doing a little road trip.

458
00:31:19,183 --> 00:31:21,663
So I figure, why not have a little fun,

459
00:31:21,803 --> 00:31:24,263
and one topic next week, you get to pick it.

460
00:31:24,463 --> 00:31:27,643
Boost and tell me what you want me to talk about, what story you want me to cover,

461
00:31:27,783 --> 00:31:30,503
or topic you want me to cover, and I might just pick your idea.

462
00:31:30,643 --> 00:31:32,983
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.

463
00:31:32,983 --> 00:31:57,283
yeah you could support the show just by doing what you do you can head on over to the best place to

464
00:31:57,283 --> 00:32:02,223
stack sats that's river we got a link in the show notes now a link for strike two also a great option

465
00:32:02,863 --> 00:32:05,643
The Bitcoin well is the way to go if you're all about self-custody.

466
00:32:05,723 --> 00:32:06,783
They don't even have a wallet.

467
00:32:07,123 --> 00:32:07,943
They don't even have it.

468
00:32:08,363 --> 00:32:09,243
All self-custody.

469
00:32:09,343 --> 00:32:10,223
Great for Lightning, too.

470
00:32:10,223 --> 00:32:13,283
If you want to spend your SATs speaking to Lightning, the Bitcoin company.

471
00:32:13,403 --> 00:32:16,443
Hundreds of gift cards from Lightning to gift card.

472
00:32:16,543 --> 00:32:18,743
In just seconds, you can even log in with the Lightning Network.

473
00:32:18,823 --> 00:32:19,483
You don't have to create an account.

474
00:32:20,383 --> 00:32:22,483
The Fold card lets you passively stack SATs.

475
00:32:22,543 --> 00:32:24,583
It's a debit card now with also a Visa option.

476
00:32:25,163 --> 00:32:26,483
Bill pay and all that kind of stuff.

477
00:32:26,483 --> 00:32:33,123
SALT Lending also has some fantastic lending options with some liquidation protection options,

478
00:32:33,543 --> 00:32:38,363
some competitive rates, and lower minimums as well. SALT Lending has some really aggressive stuff.

479
00:32:38,843 --> 00:32:42,283
So we have a link to all of that, including a new one to strike in the show notes. You use those

480
00:32:42,283 --> 00:32:45,643
links. You can just support the show by doing what you do.

481
00:32:56,483 --> 00:33:04,443
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you, but what you can boost for your podcast.

482
00:33:04,443 --> 00:33:11,303
Halleck kicks off the support this week with 54,321 Satoshis.

483
00:33:11,383 --> 00:33:15,283
That is 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.

484
00:33:15,283 --> 00:33:30,603
Coming in with a web boost to say BIP 110 scares me more than the BCH situation, mainly because it feels like a viable minority attack.

485
00:33:30,843 --> 00:33:34,663
The minority attack aspect of it is very concerning, but we just see how it plays out.

486
00:33:34,663 --> 00:33:50,883
I'm becoming less concerned as time goes on, but more concerned with the obvious tactics and coordination involved and how people that were trusted, Start9, Ocean, others, have taken advantage and are now doing things that were much worse than anything Core ever did.

487
00:33:51,563 --> 00:33:52,663
It just doesn't make sense.

488
00:33:52,803 --> 00:33:53,923
It just doesn't make sense to me.

489
00:33:54,443 --> 00:33:56,003
It doesn't mean if it makes sense to you, you're wrong.

490
00:33:56,143 --> 00:33:57,263
It just doesn't make sense to me.

491
00:33:57,683 --> 00:33:59,503
But I'm in agreement with you, Halleck.

492
00:33:59,503 --> 00:34:01,183
It's one of the scarier things in a while.

493
00:34:01,583 --> 00:34:02,823
And I appreciate that, Bollerboost.

494
00:34:02,843 --> 00:34:03,283
Thank you, sir.

495
00:34:03,283 --> 00:34:07,663
Techison's here with 32,112 satoshis

496
00:34:07,663 --> 00:34:13,503
been listening to it for a while now

497
00:34:13,503 --> 00:34:15,483
this is the best bitcoin podcast out there

498
00:34:15,483 --> 00:34:16,503
all signal no noise

499
00:34:16,503 --> 00:34:17,843
the new video feed is cool as well

500
00:34:17,843 --> 00:34:18,463
hey

501
00:34:18,463 --> 00:34:20,763
keep up the great work he says

502
00:34:20,763 --> 00:34:24,803
oh you like the idea of the 2k plus episode number

503
00:34:24,803 --> 00:34:25,763
ah thank you

504
00:34:25,763 --> 00:34:29,903
so he sent in also 2,112 sats

505
00:34:29,903 --> 00:34:32,243
give you a little bit of a boosty boo for that too

506
00:34:32,243 --> 00:34:33,703
Coming in hot with the boost.

507
00:34:33,803 --> 00:34:34,743
Thank you very much.

508
00:34:35,103 --> 00:34:35,923
Gene Bean's back.

509
00:34:35,977 --> 00:34:38,957
with 4,444 Satoshis.

510
00:34:39,017 --> 00:34:41,817
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

511
00:34:41,897 --> 00:34:43,437
I still think the four cycle is no more.

512
00:34:43,877 --> 00:34:44,857
It's all about the liquidity

513
00:34:44,857 --> 00:34:46,517
and the stuff you described a while back.

514
00:34:47,037 --> 00:34:48,637
By the way, I want this space heater.

515
00:34:48,637 --> 00:34:50,157
Maybe you are interested too.

516
00:34:50,237 --> 00:34:52,137
The Avalon Mini 3.

517
00:34:54,417 --> 00:34:57,817
So Gene, I have already bought a space heater.

518
00:34:58,417 --> 00:34:59,397
Although this is cool.

519
00:34:59,477 --> 00:35:01,737
So this is like one of those like board heaters

520
00:35:01,737 --> 00:35:02,777
which Gene has linked me to.

521
00:35:03,317 --> 00:35:05,257
That we like an electric baseboard heater almost

522
00:35:05,257 --> 00:35:06,837
that you put down against a wall,

523
00:35:06,877 --> 00:35:08,217
and it's sort of long and wide.

524
00:35:08,777 --> 00:35:10,057
It looks really cool.

525
00:35:10,197 --> 00:35:11,857
And of course, while it's generating heat,

526
00:35:12,357 --> 00:35:13,377
it is mining Bitcoin.

527
00:35:14,077 --> 00:35:15,377
The Avalon Mini 3.

528
00:35:15,377 --> 00:35:19,397
And it comes in at just about $1,000 in the US.

529
00:35:21,477 --> 00:35:22,277
That's cool.

530
00:35:22,757 --> 00:35:23,477
And I like that.

531
00:35:23,637 --> 00:35:24,737
I think it's called the Heat,

532
00:35:24,797 --> 00:35:26,077
but I'll tell you more once I get it, Gene.

533
00:35:26,117 --> 00:35:27,677
I'm planning to review it on the show eventually.

534
00:35:27,857 --> 00:35:30,637
But it looks more like an air purifier.

535
00:35:31,337 --> 00:35:33,237
And it's about the size of a HomePod,

536
00:35:33,297 --> 00:35:34,097
maybe a little bit bigger.

537
00:35:34,097 --> 00:35:38,557
and it generates heat and mines Bitcoin as well, supposedly pretty quiet.

538
00:35:39,097 --> 00:35:39,557
We'll see.

539
00:35:39,717 --> 00:35:41,597
I'm going to give it a shot in the home over the winter.

540
00:35:41,957 --> 00:35:44,837
They've charged me for it, so I'm hoping by fall, you know,

541
00:35:44,857 --> 00:35:46,017
they're still building them and all of that.

542
00:35:46,137 --> 00:35:48,437
I'm hoping by fall I'll have a review, but we'll see.

543
00:35:48,957 --> 00:35:49,737
This kind of depends.

544
00:35:49,937 --> 00:35:51,757
But I like that idea too, Gene.

545
00:35:51,757 --> 00:35:56,457
I also really like the idea of taking used mining equipment off of the internet bay

546
00:35:56,457 --> 00:36:00,917
and then repurposing that as heating with ducting

547
00:36:00,917 --> 00:36:04,077
or putting it outside somewhere and then bringing that in, you know, that kind of stuff.

548
00:36:04,677 --> 00:36:05,057
Thanks, Gene.

549
00:36:05,297 --> 00:36:06,137
Nice to hear from you.

550
00:36:07,157 --> 00:36:08,497
Sleekstats, I never get that right.

551
00:36:09,677 --> 00:36:11,277
Sleetsats is, nope, still not right,

552
00:36:11,337 --> 00:36:14,017
is here with 10,101 Satoshis.

553
00:36:14,117 --> 00:36:15,877
It's over 9,000!

554
00:36:16,677 --> 00:36:17,477
Ah, I see.

555
00:36:17,717 --> 00:36:19,857
Sleekstack is the lizard people in Land of the Lost.

556
00:36:19,917 --> 00:36:21,637
See, I just never watched Land of the Lost.

557
00:36:22,057 --> 00:36:23,337
My failed attempt at being witty

558
00:36:23,337 --> 00:36:25,517
by referencing the 70s kiddie show, kids show.

559
00:36:25,937 --> 00:36:28,117
Considering the 650-watt S9 Space Eater,

560
00:36:28,277 --> 00:36:30,817
I use the purpose-built Brains OS in the controller.

561
00:36:30,817 --> 00:36:34,177
With that, you can adjust the wattage and the fan speed.

562
00:36:34,377 --> 00:36:38,497
I swapped out the old loud stock fans with the Noctua fans using a 3D printed adapter.

563
00:36:39,037 --> 00:36:44,197
The Noctua fans at 55 speed are quiet and push out a comfortable, chicken-safe level of heat.

564
00:36:45,957 --> 00:36:46,677
That's great.

565
00:36:47,117 --> 00:36:50,137
Crypto Cloaks has all the adapters and a great DIY guide.

566
00:36:51,137 --> 00:36:54,037
Man, that's a high-quality, high-value boost right there.

567
00:36:54,457 --> 00:36:56,277
Thank you, Slee. I really appreciate that.

568
00:36:56,857 --> 00:36:59,937
So, um, sounds like Brains OS.

569
00:36:59,937 --> 00:37:01,197
Yes, I'm familiar with it.

570
00:37:01,257 --> 00:37:02,177
Never actually ran it.

571
00:37:02,257 --> 00:37:03,897
Sounds like I need to spend some time learning more.

572
00:37:04,697 --> 00:37:05,337
Appreciate that.

573
00:37:05,917 --> 00:37:06,717
Thanks for the value, too.

574
00:37:07,857 --> 00:37:08,537
Now, Strix comes in.

575
00:37:08,597 --> 00:37:11,397
That's probably not right with 15,000 Satushers.

576
00:37:15,777 --> 00:37:16,957
I like you.

577
00:37:17,317 --> 00:37:18,377
You're a hot ticket.

578
00:37:18,617 --> 00:37:21,037
They write, sailor selling doesn't scare me.

579
00:37:21,037 --> 00:37:26,597
If it was a business decision, which I get, but the media just wants to take their cheap shots because he's an easy target right now.

580
00:37:26,597 --> 00:37:29,397
when they struggle to comprehend what Bitcoin even is,

581
00:37:29,797 --> 00:37:32,037
much less the importance it will have in the future.

582
00:37:32,577 --> 00:37:34,337
Their sensationalism is just noise.

583
00:37:34,437 --> 00:37:37,537
The reality is, in order for a currency to be healthy and have worth,

584
00:37:37,597 --> 00:37:39,117
it has to be exchanged and not hoarded,

585
00:37:39,237 --> 00:37:41,497
which means both buying and selling must happen, right?

586
00:37:42,177 --> 00:37:43,297
It's healthy selling.

587
00:37:43,437 --> 00:37:44,717
It's healthy market activity.

588
00:37:45,357 --> 00:37:46,897
Also, the market seems to be up,

589
00:37:47,497 --> 00:37:49,497
even though he hasn't bought for about a month,

590
00:37:50,097 --> 00:37:51,777
which I think is a good sign.

591
00:37:52,237 --> 00:37:53,217
I think that's a good sign.

592
00:37:53,557 --> 00:37:56,217
And I would bet you're right about sensationalism.

593
00:37:57,177 --> 00:37:59,577
In a year, we probably won't even be talking about this.

594
00:37:59,637 --> 00:38:02,197
Most people don't realize that a while ago, Sailor sold too.

595
00:38:02,637 --> 00:38:03,297
Like a lot.

596
00:38:04,797 --> 00:38:06,237
And we just sort of forget about it.

597
00:38:06,577 --> 00:38:08,037
We just sort of move on, don't we?

598
00:38:08,817 --> 00:38:09,597
Thank you for the boost.

599
00:38:09,777 --> 00:38:10,497
Appreciate you.

600
00:38:11,397 --> 00:38:13,917
Brewgators here with 2,112 Satoshis.

601
00:38:13,937 --> 00:38:15,657
Put some macaroni and cheese on there too.

602
00:38:15,937 --> 00:38:20,917
Ah, I love the idea of the minimum shout out to boost the last episode being 2,000 plus the episode number.

603
00:38:21,017 --> 00:38:21,477
Keep it up.

604
00:38:21,937 --> 00:38:23,357
So that was 2,112.

605
00:38:23,577 --> 00:38:25,577
So this week would be 2,113.

606
00:38:26,117 --> 00:38:26,877
Thank you very much.

607
00:38:27,097 --> 00:38:29,137
Ten gold blooms out of a possible ten gold blooms.

608
00:38:29,137 --> 00:38:30,917
Ace Ackerman's back with a row of ducks.

609
00:38:30,997 --> 00:38:32,517
2,222 sats.

610
00:38:33,217 --> 00:38:34,957
The four-year cycle's a sire!

611
00:38:35,897 --> 00:38:36,437
Thanks, Ace.

612
00:38:37,177 --> 00:38:38,057
Tell me how you really feel.

613
00:38:38,537 --> 00:38:40,337
Orange Mart's here with 5,000 sats.

614
00:38:40,477 --> 00:38:42,437
I am programmed in multiple techniques.

615
00:38:42,997 --> 00:38:45,917
Sailors sold 260 million in Bitcoin and the market shrugged.

616
00:38:45,977 --> 00:38:47,697
But the real fireworks are over BIP 110.

617
00:38:48,217 --> 00:38:48,797
That's right.

618
00:38:49,117 --> 00:38:50,197
Everything's under control.

619
00:38:50,477 --> 00:38:51,417
Check out episode 112.

620
00:38:51,537 --> 00:38:52,477
He's giving it a plug!

621
00:38:53,577 --> 00:38:54,697
Thank you very much.

622
00:38:54,697 --> 00:38:56,097
Appreciate you, Onge.

623
00:38:56,597 --> 00:38:58,697
Hope you have a great rest of your week.

624
00:38:58,877 --> 00:38:59,517
Thank you for the boost.

625
00:38:59,977 --> 00:39:03,737
OB's back with 13,800 Satoshis.

626
00:39:04,037 --> 00:39:06,777
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

627
00:39:07,137 --> 00:39:11,697
I don't think I've ever heard you so convicted on a topic such as BIP 110, like it or not,

628
00:39:11,777 --> 00:39:13,197
because I agree with you, which I do.

629
00:39:13,597 --> 00:39:14,917
But I think it makes the show better.

630
00:39:14,997 --> 00:39:15,277
Spicy.

631
00:39:15,977 --> 00:39:22,417
You know, it's not that I try to, like, take a strong position, but there is just somebody

632
00:39:22,417 --> 00:39:23,517
who's been watching this.

633
00:39:23,517 --> 00:39:28,037
You know, what's crazy to me is Bitcoin is about as old as my oldest kid.

634
00:39:28,557 --> 00:39:31,297
So like the two things happened around the same time in my life.

635
00:39:31,497 --> 00:39:33,257
And I care about both.

636
00:39:33,377 --> 00:39:34,637
Obviously, I'm not equating the two.

637
00:39:34,717 --> 00:39:41,137
But what I'm saying is like you just have this sort of innate understanding, right?

638
00:39:41,137 --> 00:39:43,397
And when you see a threat, you recognize a threat.

639
00:39:43,677 --> 00:39:44,277
I don't know.

640
00:39:44,317 --> 00:39:46,537
It's hard to explain because I know there's other long-termers in here.

641
00:39:47,457 --> 00:39:49,637
But I just, I think it's crazy.

642
00:39:49,877 --> 00:39:52,357
I think it's just, it's absolutely, BIP 110 stuff is absolutely bonkers.

643
00:39:52,357 --> 00:39:55,117
when you boil down what the second order effects are.

644
00:39:55,377 --> 00:39:58,617
I can totally sympathize with being frustrated with core.

645
00:39:58,817 --> 00:40:00,997
I can sympathize and being concerned,

646
00:40:01,177 --> 00:40:02,417
although I don't see it being an issue

647
00:40:02,417 --> 00:40:03,417
with spam on the blockchain.

648
00:40:03,517 --> 00:40:04,757
And the reason why I don't say I see it

649
00:40:04,757 --> 00:40:07,517
is because I still think, yes, spam happens, obviously.

650
00:40:08,617 --> 00:40:10,417
I think there's some debate about what spam could be,

651
00:40:10,497 --> 00:40:11,577
but we'll put that aside.

652
00:40:11,677 --> 00:40:13,477
I mean, Luke himself used to inscribe things into the chain,

653
00:40:13,537 --> 00:40:14,257
but we'll put that aside.

654
00:40:14,297 --> 00:40:16,497
And I'll just say, I still believe

655
00:40:16,497 --> 00:40:19,817
that you cannot really solve spam in an open network fully.

656
00:40:19,817 --> 00:40:23,237
I mean, look at the internet.

657
00:40:23,237 --> 00:40:25,997
If it could be solved, people would not have spam in their email today.

658
00:40:25,997 --> 00:40:42,057
And there massive trillion dollar corporations that try to solve it I think it sort of inherently just part of an open system unfortunately But what proof of work does and what Adam Back came up with is a way to make it economically non

659
00:40:42,237 --> 00:40:53,897
So when the network is really up against the wall and it needs the capacity, it needs that space for transmission of actual monetary uses, the spam will get priced out.

660
00:40:53,957 --> 00:40:55,177
And I believe that is to be true.

661
00:40:55,177 --> 00:40:57,737
And I think if people don't believe that, then they don't believe in Bitcoin.

662
00:40:58,637 --> 00:40:59,717
It's as simple as that.

663
00:40:59,837 --> 00:41:01,137
It's just the nature of the network.

664
00:41:01,637 --> 00:41:06,677
And the people that don't think that's going to be what happens are just how they've simply lost faith in Bitcoin and they think they need to save it.

665
00:41:07,917 --> 00:41:11,477
And I think that's a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation, in my opinion.

666
00:41:11,577 --> 00:41:12,077
Thank you, OB.

667
00:41:12,897 --> 00:41:13,737
Appreciate you.

668
00:41:13,977 --> 00:41:16,317
Mere Mortals podcast is back with a row of ducks.

669
00:41:16,457 --> 00:41:16,737
What?

670
00:41:17,577 --> 00:41:17,937
What?

671
00:41:18,677 --> 00:41:19,037
What?

672
00:41:23,277 --> 00:41:23,637
Boost!

673
00:41:23,877 --> 00:41:24,237
Whoa.

674
00:41:24,237 --> 00:41:25,677
Oh, hey, Chris, long time no chat.

675
00:41:25,757 --> 00:41:28,957
Really appreciate all your hard work putting these together day in and day out.

676
00:41:29,377 --> 00:41:33,117
My Bitcoin knowledge and general news and technical details would be significantly worse without you and your show.

677
00:41:33,197 --> 00:41:33,657
You're the best.

678
00:41:33,737 --> 00:41:35,817
Well, thank you for the value, I assume, Kyron.

679
00:41:35,897 --> 00:41:37,697
Nice to hear from you, Mirror Mortals Podcast.

680
00:41:38,637 --> 00:41:39,637
Glad you're still out there.

681
00:41:39,757 --> 00:41:40,517
Appreciate you.

682
00:41:41,557 --> 00:41:41,917
That was fun.

683
00:41:42,977 --> 00:41:52,677
Gonna guess I'm gonna get this one wrong, but D.H. Karura comes in with 2,395 satoshis and just says, boost!

684
00:41:52,677 --> 00:41:54,357
B-O-O-S-T.

685
00:41:54,577 --> 00:41:56,297
Thank you very much. Appreciate you.

686
00:41:56,557 --> 00:41:57,817
Hey, Philippa's back.

687
00:41:58,017 --> 00:41:59,317
Live long and prosper.

688
00:41:59,577 --> 00:42:01,977
3,456 Satoshis.

689
00:42:02,197 --> 00:42:03,337
Rock and roll.

690
00:42:03,577 --> 00:42:08,157
Maybe it's in wider cycles in the economy and beyond that creating the four-year cycle, right?

691
00:42:08,397 --> 00:42:13,137
After all, zoom in or zoom out and everything seems to have cycles.

692
00:42:13,497 --> 00:42:14,337
That's true, right?

693
00:42:14,577 --> 00:42:20,997
Everything is in flux according to Marcus Alias, A.D., in 121 and lived to 180.

694
00:42:20,997 --> 00:42:21,437
Wow.

695
00:42:23,397 --> 00:42:26,937
You're telling me there's an economist in the year 121 that was saying that?

696
00:42:27,037 --> 00:42:27,597
No, he was right.

697
00:42:28,537 --> 00:42:28,817
Yeah.

698
00:42:29,017 --> 00:42:30,637
I mean, what if it's the election cycle?

699
00:42:30,717 --> 00:42:37,037
And I don't want it to be that because I don't want the U.S. election cycle to be driving a global monetary asset.

700
00:42:37,537 --> 00:42:40,877
But, I mean, it is a very large market.

701
00:42:41,597 --> 00:42:42,457
I hope it's not that.

702
00:42:42,557 --> 00:42:42,977
Thank you, Philip.

703
00:42:43,037 --> 00:42:43,757
That was great to hear from you.

704
00:42:44,177 --> 00:42:48,457
Kiwi Bitcoin Guide's back with 4,567 satushers.

705
00:42:48,757 --> 00:42:49,297
He's a good guy.

706
00:42:49,537 --> 00:42:50,517
He's a real good guy.

707
00:42:50,517 --> 00:42:51,297
No, he's a great guy.

708
00:42:51,377 --> 00:42:51,897
Yep, yep, yep.

709
00:42:51,897 --> 00:42:56,797
in the clarity act i've heard there are clauses which offer protections for open source developers

710
00:42:56,797 --> 00:43:00,157
they seem to be in one version and then out of the next amendment do you know anything about this

711
00:43:00,157 --> 00:43:04,517
it sounds like those are in the ominous bill tricks where the act is about something else

712
00:43:04,517 --> 00:43:09,817
yeah stable coins for example and that includes a nasty surprise in other areas i.e removing

713
00:43:09,817 --> 00:43:14,697
protections for false developers yeah so i've heard the same exact thing i have heard the same

714
00:43:14,697 --> 00:43:19,957
exact thing and the best of my knowledge those protections are not in the most recent but i don't

715
00:43:19,957 --> 00:43:22,437
know if that's true or not because there's been a couple versions that have been released.

716
00:43:23,837 --> 00:43:29,077
Clarity Act stuff drives me crazy. I think they're right up against the wire. I just saw

717
00:43:29,077 --> 00:43:32,637
Senator Lumma saying in an interview that they've been working on it every day.

718
00:43:33,557 --> 00:43:37,257
It's amazing to work on something for every day and not get it done.

719
00:43:39,757 --> 00:43:44,117
Ooh, it sucks. Thank you, Kiwi. Nice to hear from you. And King Arthur's here with a member. Boost.

720
00:43:44,117 --> 00:43:50,417
i'll be your benevolent bitcoin dictator my divine providence bestowed upon me by lady of the lake

721
00:43:50,417 --> 00:43:56,317
member boost or fiat boost coming in at a dollar 33 for monthly members and less than unless for

722
00:43:56,317 --> 00:44:01,257
annual hey there you go you did the math huh that is a great boost you're getting below the 2000

723
00:44:01,257 --> 00:44:07,877
threshold well actually let's see are you right now or is that right at the 2000s because if you

724
00:44:07,877 --> 00:44:14,697
don't mind i'm gonna go look it up so sats to the u.s want uh so sats to u.s dollar right now are

725
00:44:14,697 --> 00:44:21,777
uh one dollar is 1540 satoshis so if you're getting it yeah you're getting the deal you're

726
00:44:21,777 --> 00:44:26,537
getting a deal that's nice that's nice king arthur that's nice and the deal only gets better

727
00:44:26,537 --> 00:44:32,497
as bitcoin goes up in value so the membership continues to get more valuable how about that

728
00:44:32,497 --> 00:44:34,037
That's one way to think of it, right, King?

729
00:44:35,557 --> 00:44:37,317
Thank you, everybody who boosted the show,

730
00:44:37,837 --> 00:44:41,157
including the 24 of you who stream sats as you listened.

731
00:44:41,657 --> 00:44:42,337
Appreciate you.

732
00:44:42,757 --> 00:44:46,417
Collectively, you sat streamers stacked 53,163 satoshis.

733
00:44:46,477 --> 00:44:47,017
A nice boost.

734
00:44:47,237 --> 00:44:47,597
Yep.

735
00:44:48,217 --> 00:44:48,617
Yep.

736
00:44:48,817 --> 00:44:49,037
Yep.

737
00:44:50,157 --> 00:44:51,317
Bring it all together.

738
00:44:51,457 --> 00:44:57,137
And our grand total this week is 246,626 satoshis.

739
00:44:57,917 --> 00:44:59,017
Not too bad at all.

740
00:44:59,097 --> 00:45:01,177
Thank you, everybody who supported the show.

741
00:45:01,177 --> 00:45:02,537
this is a value for value podcast.

742
00:45:02,657 --> 00:45:03,657
I put it out there for free.

743
00:45:04,117 --> 00:45:05,737
There's no advertiser,

744
00:45:05,917 --> 00:45:06,937
but there are memberships

745
00:45:06,937 --> 00:45:07,937
and there are boosts.

746
00:45:07,937 --> 00:45:09,417
Jupiter.party and in Fountain

747
00:45:09,417 --> 00:45:10,477
and of course,

748
00:45:10,637 --> 00:45:12,277
boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com.

749
00:45:16,237 --> 00:45:17,197
Yes, you can go over there,

750
00:45:17,237 --> 00:45:17,877
support the show

751
00:45:17,877 --> 00:45:19,377
and keep the show going.

752
00:45:19,637 --> 00:45:20,317
And don't forget,

753
00:45:20,417 --> 00:45:21,237
I want your boost

754
00:45:21,237 --> 00:45:23,857
on what next week's singular topic,

755
00:45:24,417 --> 00:45:26,017
the singular topic,

756
00:45:26,137 --> 00:45:26,697
should be about.

757
00:45:26,837 --> 00:45:28,977
Boost in at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com

758
00:45:28,977 --> 00:45:29,897
and support the show.

759
00:45:31,177 --> 00:45:43,077
All right, time to pick up the pace and get you out of here.

760
00:45:43,157 --> 00:45:45,697
Just a couple of updates for you before I go.

761
00:45:46,377 --> 00:45:49,197
Strategies CEO Fong Li was on Bloomberg,

762
00:45:49,657 --> 00:45:51,957
and I want you to pay attention to how he describes

763
00:45:51,957 --> 00:45:56,897
what Strategies Businesses is no longer a buy Bitcoin and hold Bitcoin company.

764
00:45:56,897 --> 00:46:01,917
and listen to his answer about the question around selling more Bitcoin in the future.

765
00:46:01,917 --> 00:46:08,397
This week, you issued that stock sale. Your cash reserves are up at $3 billion. My understanding is

766
00:46:08,397 --> 00:46:14,757
that this allows you to pause Bitcoin sales for the time being. But talk us through what the next

767
00:46:14,757 --> 00:46:19,697
several months look like. Do you plan to sell more Bitcoin? And if so, how much?

768
00:46:21,037 --> 00:46:33,016
Katie thanks for having me We have really evolved from being a Bitcoin treasury company to a full digital capital platform We the world largest largest identified holder of Bitcoin in the world

769
00:46:33,156 --> 00:46:35,116
We have over 840,000 Bitcoin.

770
00:46:35,976 --> 00:46:40,756
Digital credit has been launched in the last year in the form of stretch just $10.5 billion.

771
00:46:41,276 --> 00:46:48,116
So we have a responsibility to our common shareholders, our preferred shareholders, and to Bitcoin, of course.

772
00:46:48,116 --> 00:46:54,676
we issued now or we've accumulated three billion dollars in cash because we listened to our

773
00:46:54,676 --> 00:46:58,916
preferred shareholders and they said having liquid cash in our balance sheet and their short term is

774
00:46:58,916 --> 00:47:07,696
important i should probably translate just really briefly there what he's saying is that they saw a

775
00:47:07,696 --> 00:47:12,816
massive sell-off when they brought their reserve down to under a month and their holders panicked

776
00:47:12,816 --> 00:47:16,756
And so they realize they have to stack cash, not sats for a while.

777
00:47:17,696 --> 00:47:21,396
And we also sold Bitcoin to be able to show liquidity with our Bitcoin.

778
00:47:22,336 --> 00:47:25,676
Yes, we will continue to issue capital.

779
00:47:25,856 --> 00:47:27,456
It could be in the form of MSTR.

780
00:47:27,696 --> 00:47:28,856
It could be in the form of Bitcoin.

781
00:47:28,856 --> 00:47:32,776
And we're going to make the decisions that are best for our shareholders over time.

782
00:47:33,496 --> 00:47:33,816
All right.

783
00:47:33,836 --> 00:47:38,316
So it sounds like to me they're going to keep selling Bitcoin for a little bit, which.

784
00:47:38,736 --> 00:47:39,156
All right.

785
00:47:39,796 --> 00:47:40,396
So be it.

786
00:47:40,396 --> 00:47:43,576
Let's shift to some good news around mining for just a moment.

787
00:47:44,936 --> 00:47:52,536
Bitdeer's seal miner product, some of which are rack mount units that can, you know, like one to three U that can go into big old server racks.

788
00:47:52,796 --> 00:47:57,656
They are about to start manufacturing some of those right here in the U.S. of A in Reno.

789
00:47:58,056 --> 00:48:03,136
And it looks like they're going to bring a sum total of 20 million dollars of investment into the area.

790
00:48:03,136 --> 00:48:06,136
A warehouse in Sparks is now home to Bitdeer.

791
00:48:06,136 --> 00:48:10,176
Bitdeer. While the company operates some large data centers in the United States,

792
00:48:10,536 --> 00:48:16,196
this facility is not a data center. Here, workers will manufacture Bitcoin mining servers.

793
00:48:17,496 --> 00:48:23,636
It's an empty warehouse now. We are building a brand new precision electronics manufacturing

794
00:48:23,636 --> 00:48:29,616
facility in Sparks. But by the end of the year, Bitdeer's seal miner product should be coming off

795
00:48:29,616 --> 00:48:35,236
the production line, eventually 10,000 per month. There are powerful servers built specifically to

796
00:48:35,236 --> 00:48:41,056
run the Bitcoin network by processing and securing Bitcoin transactions. While much of the production

797
00:48:41,056 --> 00:48:46,816
line will be automated, it's expected to create 70 high-paying jobs. It's the Singapore-based

798
00:48:46,816 --> 00:48:52,516
company's first manufacturing facility in America. We asked why they picked Sparks. The warehouse is

799
00:48:52,516 --> 00:49:01,356
off pyramid way near the library. Accessible, skilled workforce. And Reno also has very robust

800
00:49:01,356 --> 00:49:09,756
logistic infrastructure and the business climate is extremely friendly.

801
00:49:09,936 --> 00:49:15,896
It is scheduled to get up to $488,000 in state tax abatements over the next decade.

802
00:49:15,896 --> 00:49:21,016
So you may see some criticism around this, the fact that they're going to get $488,000

803
00:49:21,016 --> 00:49:25,236
in tax abatements. And this will likely play into the whole AI data center narrative,

804
00:49:25,356 --> 00:49:29,636
even though this isn't an AI data center. And I think it's important to keep that in context.

805
00:49:29,636 --> 00:49:33,776
Yes, they're going to get nearly $500,000 in tax cuts.

806
00:49:33,876 --> 00:49:34,696
I would love that too.

807
00:49:35,756 --> 00:49:38,436
But they're going to bring $20 million into the area.

808
00:49:39,216 --> 00:49:44,056
To get up to $488,000 in state tax abatements over the next decade,

809
00:49:44,256 --> 00:49:47,536
the total investment in Reno Sparks is about $20 million.

810
00:49:48,436 --> 00:49:53,276
Unlike data centers, the company's chairman says this facility doesn't use quite that much water.

811
00:49:53,596 --> 00:49:58,036
We will use less than 1,000 gallons of water a day or approximately in that.

812
00:49:58,036 --> 00:50:03,996
And when you talk about household homes, you're talking about three household homes worth of water consumption on a daily basis.

813
00:50:04,416 --> 00:50:05,916
Construction is now underway.

814
00:50:06,116 --> 00:50:09,856
They hope to start shipping out their products in January 2027.

815
00:50:10,676 --> 00:50:15,916
BitDeer executives say they've invested more than $600 million in the U.S. since 2017,

816
00:50:16,296 --> 00:50:19,356
as they aim to help boost domestic manufacturing here.

817
00:50:19,676 --> 00:50:23,676
They have other facilities already in Washington, Texas, Ohio, and Tennessee.

818
00:50:24,176 --> 00:50:26,076
In studio, Ben Marjot reporting.

819
00:50:26,076 --> 00:50:28,276
How do I get into those Washington facilities?

820
00:50:28,436 --> 00:50:28,836
How?

821
00:50:29,936 --> 00:50:32,176
For so many years, listeners,

822
00:50:32,356 --> 00:50:34,096
I have tried to get a tour

823
00:50:34,096 --> 00:50:35,936
of a Washington Bitcoin mine facility.

824
00:50:36,496 --> 00:50:37,936
You know, a guy just wants to see it.

825
00:50:38,656 --> 00:50:40,916
He used to mine on a small scale, you know,

826
00:50:41,036 --> 00:50:42,976
maybe at my peak, I had like five rigs.

827
00:50:44,536 --> 00:50:45,956
I'd like to see a large scale one.

828
00:50:46,516 --> 00:50:48,716
So let's wrap it up with our final clip.

829
00:50:50,056 --> 00:50:52,636
This sort of brings it all together, I think,

830
00:50:52,696 --> 00:50:54,356
and connects the beginning to the end here.

831
00:50:54,356 --> 00:50:56,056
and I'm going to play Jordy Visser.

832
00:50:56,676 --> 00:50:59,256
He has his weekly sit down on the Pomp Pod

833
00:50:59,256 --> 00:51:02,536
and Jordy thinks that we might be near a price bottom

834
00:51:02,536 --> 00:51:04,476
or in the range of a price bottom for Bitcoin

835
00:51:04,476 --> 00:51:06,836
because we now have on the table

836
00:51:06,836 --> 00:51:09,816
a possibility of no rate hikes.

837
00:51:10,116 --> 00:51:12,436
And that is going to be seen as a green light

838
00:51:12,436 --> 00:51:14,996
for guys like Jordy who want to get in

839
00:51:14,996 --> 00:51:17,576
before it starts turning around.

840
00:51:18,056 --> 00:51:19,696
So as a trader, I go,

841
00:51:19,796 --> 00:51:22,576
well, now I can buy something when we get back above 60

842
00:51:22,576 --> 00:51:25,116
and I'll just stop myself back out below the lows.

843
00:51:25,216 --> 00:51:26,396
That's the way a trader trades.

844
00:51:26,516 --> 00:51:27,876
And that's the way that I've always thought.

845
00:51:27,976 --> 00:51:28,896
It's the way I was brought up.

846
00:51:28,936 --> 00:51:29,976
And I'm an Elliott Wave guy.

847
00:51:30,036 --> 00:51:32,396
And I still believe we're entering a very, very big thing.

848
00:51:32,836 --> 00:51:35,416
My belief is that over the course of the next year,

849
00:51:35,656 --> 00:51:37,816
we are near the bottom end of the range of Bitcoin.

850
00:51:38,116 --> 00:51:39,416
And see how I said that near?

851
00:51:39,916 --> 00:51:40,716
Could we go to 50?

852
00:51:40,836 --> 00:51:40,936
Yeah.

853
00:51:40,996 --> 00:51:41,736
Could we go to 45?

854
00:51:41,916 --> 00:51:42,076
Yeah.

855
00:51:42,276 --> 00:51:44,256
Do I think we'll be over 100 a year from now?

856
00:51:44,316 --> 00:51:44,456
Yeah.

857
00:51:44,536 --> 00:51:48,456
So what do I care whether I buy something at 60 or whatever?

858
00:51:48,636 --> 00:51:51,896
Yes, my percentage gain will be better.

859
00:51:51,896 --> 00:51:56,276
but if we're above 100, I don't care. So that's the first thing. The second thing is I've

860
00:51:56,276 --> 00:52:04,256
highlighted that we probably all underestimated, I know I did, the impact that the AI capital suck

861
00:52:04,256 --> 00:52:09,596
would have from the rest of everything. It's not just Bitcoin people, it's the hyperscalers as well.

862
00:52:09,956 --> 00:52:15,076
Basically, my benchmark arbitrage of money rotating into the space that's going the fastest,

863
00:52:15,076 --> 00:52:28,636
Micron went up 20 times a 20 bagger 20 bagger You don get that in big companies and this is a big company So for that to happen you didn need to buy Bitcoin You didn need to buy crypto You didn

864
00:52:28,636 --> 00:52:33,556
need to buy any of this stuff. Every single person in Silicon Valley talked about how startups,

865
00:52:33,716 --> 00:52:37,816
if you had AI attached to it, nobody wanted crypto. At the end of the day, people want to

866
00:52:37,816 --> 00:52:43,536
invest in things that are working. And so once it started to move lower, which coincided in October

867
00:52:43,536 --> 00:52:46,736
with the release of Opus 4.5,

868
00:52:46,956 --> 00:52:50,056
but it also coincided with another strong secular trend

869
00:52:50,056 --> 00:52:52,056
that has still been in place until last week,

870
00:52:52,116 --> 00:52:53,616
which was rate cuts.

871
00:52:54,056 --> 00:52:56,916
We had 150 basis points of rate cuts

872
00:52:56,916 --> 00:52:59,136
still in the market as of October

873
00:52:59,136 --> 00:53:01,016
or late September of last year.

874
00:53:01,016 --> 00:53:02,036
That peak there,

875
00:53:02,576 --> 00:53:04,556
some of it came out because of the actual cut,

876
00:53:04,836 --> 00:53:06,136
but then a lot of it came out

877
00:53:06,136 --> 00:53:08,556
because we started to build in hikes.

878
00:53:08,756 --> 00:53:09,676
And we have about,

879
00:53:09,676 --> 00:53:17,576
Now, we have a full cut plus percent of, sorry, hike, plus a hot probability of another one

880
00:53:17,576 --> 00:53:18,876
before the end of the year.

881
00:53:19,096 --> 00:53:21,736
So here's what I'm telling you is going to happen in my mind.

882
00:53:22,756 --> 00:53:25,756
That's all going to change, or at least the rate of change is going to be there.

883
00:53:25,776 --> 00:53:26,896
And I'm a rate of change, guys.

884
00:53:27,036 --> 00:53:28,936
I do not think they want to hike.

885
00:53:28,936 --> 00:53:34,396
I did a piece on the Fed this week and made sure that everyone was highlighted that, hey,

886
00:53:34,596 --> 00:53:36,016
the Fed, Warsh has spoken.

887
00:53:36,336 --> 00:53:39,096
He believes AI is going to be a productivity boom.

888
00:53:39,096 --> 00:53:42,356
and that there might be a point at the beginning

889
00:53:42,356 --> 00:53:43,796
where it's a little inflationary

890
00:53:43,796 --> 00:53:45,356
before we get to deflationary,

891
00:53:45,436 --> 00:53:46,696
but the last thing he wants to do

892
00:53:46,696 --> 00:53:49,716
is go on some tight hiking cycle because of inflation.

893
00:53:49,936 --> 00:53:51,756
We're gonna get a negative CPI print.

894
00:53:52,036 --> 00:53:55,716
The question is, July 29th, when we have the FOMC,

895
00:53:55,816 --> 00:53:56,876
are they gonna raise rates?

896
00:53:57,536 --> 00:53:59,916
There's a possibility, a good possibility,

897
00:54:00,036 --> 00:54:02,296
it's like 35 to 40% that they will.

898
00:54:03,096 --> 00:54:07,116
If they don't, then I think Bitcoin will be above 70,000

899
00:54:07,116 --> 00:54:08,156
when that time comes

900
00:54:08,156 --> 00:54:10,636
because I think people are going to start factoring in the fact

901
00:54:10,636 --> 00:54:14,016
that maybe they're not going at all this year before the midterms.

902
00:54:14,096 --> 00:54:17,596
Does he really want to hike before the midterms when he was brought in by Trump?

903
00:54:17,716 --> 00:54:20,196
So I think that may be on hold for a while.

904
00:54:20,556 --> 00:54:23,736
And it's not that it's a big deal because it means they're not cutting rates.

905
00:54:23,736 --> 00:54:27,976
But since hikes are expected, it is a positive relative to expectations.

906
00:54:38,156 --> 00:54:42,016
Let's check in on the state of the network.

907
00:54:42,156 --> 00:54:46,676
I am wrapping up at block height 958,184.

908
00:54:47,056 --> 00:54:52,376
The U.S. price to Bitcoin right now is $65,090 to one Bitcoin.

909
00:54:52,796 --> 00:54:55,616
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,536.

910
00:54:55,616 --> 00:55:01,736
That means we're down 48.4% from our all-time high 281 days ago.

911
00:55:02,316 --> 00:55:03,916
However, this is an interesting adjustment.

912
00:55:03,916 --> 00:55:09,896
The estimated difficulty change is now an upward adjustment of 3.7%.

913
00:55:09,896 --> 00:55:16,436
There are 24,480 reachable nodes on the Bitcoin network.

914
00:55:16,676 --> 00:55:20,136
We are up 4.6% from the last episode.

915
00:55:20,456 --> 00:55:30,296
And we have 1,432 blocks until the difficulty retarget, which is, again, an upward adjustment of 3.7%, which is very interesting to see.

916
00:55:30,296 --> 00:55:33,236
And indeed, the state of the network is strong.

917
00:55:33,916 --> 00:55:48,496
Well, if you made it this far, go check out links at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

918
00:55:48,596 --> 00:55:51,996
Links to what I talked about, the back catalog, all of that is over there.

919
00:55:52,476 --> 00:55:58,876
You also can boost at boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com or in your podcasting 2.0 app of choice.

920
00:55:58,876 --> 00:56:03,676
my goal is to give you a podcast here that doesn't get distracted by the emotions or the politics but

921
00:56:03,676 --> 00:56:08,556
tries to focus in on that signal so you can plan for yourself your friends your family your future

922
00:56:08,556 --> 00:56:12,496
whatever it might be and you can stay humble and you can stack sats and kind of hopefully

923
00:56:12,496 --> 00:56:17,196
have a handle on what's dragging things around out there let me know how i did with a boost and

924
00:56:17,196 --> 00:56:22,496
the topic you want me to see covered the singular topic for next week's shorty episode while i'm on

925
00:56:22,496 --> 00:56:26,436
the road okay i'm going to leave you with a value for value track you boost during the music 95%

926
00:56:26,436 --> 00:56:32,056
of the sats go to the artist, and I picked this track for one reason. One reason only.

927
00:56:32,976 --> 00:56:39,136
It uses a fantastic riff of the Podfather for a voiceover to an epic intro. This week,

928
00:56:39,136 --> 00:56:41,656
it's Rules Without Rulers by Richard.

929
00:56:56,436 --> 00:57:01,176
as to them shall seem most likely to affect their safety and happiness.

930
00:57:01,756 --> 00:57:05,956
That line in the Constitution is being carried out by Bitcoin,

931
00:57:06,336 --> 00:57:11,516
not by guns, not by militia, not by so-called domestic violent extremists.

932
00:57:11,776 --> 00:57:13,456
It is a silent revolution.

933
00:57:26,436 --> 00:57:56,416
Thank you.

934
00:57:56,436 --> 00:57:57,436
Bye.