Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 102.
My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.
It's the week of the Bitcoin 2026 conference in Las Vegas,
and the vibe is very institutional, I guess is a nice way to put it.
I have been watching hours and hours of talks, keynotes, presentations,
live stream, chitter, chatter, filler,
really just trying to look for some of the signal in all of this for you.
And at the same time, Washington seems to be treating custody
and enforcement around Bitcoin and how they treat that a lot more formally,
which I think is an interesting development.
Even if some of their bigger announcements, which we will cover,
I think still should be labeled as claims rather than fact.
It's still worth listening to.
So let's get into it.
Let's set a broader context, the macro context that is taking place during the Bitcoin 2026
conference.
Anybody that's been listening to this show for a couple of weeks, you know that Morgan
Stanley recently got into the Bitcoin game.
And for us, this is now old and settled news. But for the financial wonks, this is the difference between living with Bitcoin and accepting Bitcoin and even transitioning to mass adoption for them.
This is actually a really big transition for the financial wonks. So let's get wonky and listen to them processing the news.
Morgan Stanley getting in is huge for a couple of reasons. One, they don't do a lot of ETFs.
ETFs. Two, obviously, I'm a wire house baby myself coming through Merrill, but I think
they have a large advisor base, huge scale. And ultimately, there's a possibility for an ETF to
end up in model portfolios. Then you're talking about more scale. Also, I think for those of us
that have been around 10 plus years, it's more validation, right? And then Schwab coming in right
behind them just kind of was the ribbon on it. But I think Morgan Stanley means a lot of scale.
I think it means really good institutional research and data that advisors or wealth managers want.
So I think that was a really good way of saying, all right, we're crossing over here from mass acceptance to mass adoption.
That's their signal, right? That's their signal.
And to me, it's OK. It's OK. Great. I'm glad you're catching up.
But let's stay wonky for a little bit because now we're going to the Bitcoin conference.
And what financial wonks are realizing, I don't know, stick with me.
This is getting there, but we're getting somewhere.
What they're realizing is the game around, quote unquote, crypto might not be DeFi and crap coins, but might be products built on top of Bitcoin.
I believe this is the week in which we finally have now seen iBit options open interest overtake Deribit's open interest.
I believe this is Jeff Park and he is up on the Mara stage.
For the first time in a meaningful way.
What does that mean?
Well, it's pretty important, right?
Because for a long time, people would look at Deribit's devolve to calculate implied volatility.
But Devol is flawed. Devol only uses Deribet options.
The reality is there's lots of offshore exchanges.
There's now Ibet options.
And we actually need more intelligent ways to quantify the parameterization of implied volatility.
All right. So let me break some of this down.
Like I said, it's out there a bit.
So Coinbase, I believe, owns the number one crypto like extra gambling market, if you will.
I'm trying to think about how to.
So there are people that are betting on the future direction of the price of crypto and derivatives.
And there are a couple of exchanges out there right now, Deribit being the biggest one that support this. Deribit was bought not too long ago by Coinbase. And what Jeff is saying here is that we're transitioning from these offshore or quasi onshore markets that are just selling action on top of crypto to people are playing now in the iBit option space instead.
And there's companies like Volmex that do a really good job on this. And the most interesting thing that I've noticed recently is if you look at BVIV US, which is the implied vol on Ibit versus BVIV, which is the offshore exchange aggregate correlation implied volatility, that spread is about five points.
meaning iBit vol is five points higher than Deribit and other offshore exchanges vol.
Where is that five points spread coming from? My guess is that there's a lot of retail demand
for upside participation in a longer tenor than what is premised usually on Deribit because
iBit options go out two years plus. So there's more action options. There's longer term action
options with iBit. And what do we know? There's more volatility with iBit. And what do traders
love. The traders love the vol. And so my bold prediction is that we're going to see a big Bitcoin
move up. It might be within this year, as Matt said. My prediction is that it is going to be led
by iBit options and the reflexive nature in which the gamma that is possibly created within something
like Bitcoin due to its scarcity can really, really lead the next leg up in a meaningful way.
And for me, watching iBit take market share over Deribit is actually a lot of excitement and
theusement that it was here, we're heading in the right direction. So here's what's happening is
IBIT is turning into a product that is appealing to people that are trying to hedge against
volatility, like perhaps miners or people that have to provide liquidity based on Bitcoin.
And it's also becoming a playground for people that like to bet on the more degenerate aspects
of crypto. And so it's drawing in both at scale. And the supposition here is that that activity
will lead to more Bitcoin purchasing, which will increase the scarcity effect. So this is
the broader context of the market dynamics, then we have a lot of government or whatever you want,
I don't know, U.S. officials, just a lot of politics at the Bitcoin conference this year.
And so this is where I tried to cut it down the most for you. But there are some teases here that,
like I say, are not necessarily announcement themselves, but something I'm definitely going
to keep an eye on. On Bitcoin as an asset overall, the president signed the Strategic
Bitcoin Reserve executive order last year, and we've gone to work in figuring out exactly the
machinations necessary and legal interpretations that we need to get that right and solidify that
and protect the digital assets, but specifically Bitcoin that we have on the government balance
sheet. So in the next few weeks, we'll be making a big announcement. I think we have a bit of a
breakthrough there. And obviously that needs to be followed up with legislation. Senator Lummis'
is Bitcoin Act over in the House.
Representative Begich has talked about the ARMA Act that he has put together.
So we need to codify it.
But in the meantime, we do believe we're going to be able to take a big step forward
from the executive branch side of the next few weeks.
I wonder if this isn't just related to the midterms, right?
I mean, the Bitcoin stuff doesn't seem to have been a big priority for them.
And then as the midterms approach, all of a sudden they got big stuff in the works.
Announcements just around the corner.
In order to vote yes on this legislation. And so we've been working with the Financial Services Committee to make some updates to that act. And we'll be planning on reintroducing this as the American Reserves Modernization Act or ARMA.
All right. So this is the ARMA clip that he was referencing. So they're going to reintroduce the reserve as the ARMA Act. This is, oh boy, I'm so sorry. I'm going to really butcher his last name. I've only ever, I've only ever read it, but it's B-E-G-I-C-H, Bersh. This is Congressman Bersh, Bersh, Bersh. None of those are right.
And the one reason you might pay attention to him is his track record at just about everybody in Congress is actually results in legislation getting passed.
That's a pretty rare thing these days. And so they are I'll back it up a little bit.
So they're going to reintroduce the reserve as a new packaged up thing with.
Well, you'll get into it. Be planning on reintroducing this as the American Reserves Modernization Act or ARMA.
So we're going to be keeping an eye out for ARMA.
And why the renaming? Because it's so important for people both in Congress and across the nation to understand what we're actually trying to do. We're trying to make sure that Bitcoin is treated like the reserve asset that it is.
we want to make sure that we have a place to store our Bitcoin,
that that Bitcoin is going to be held for a long period of time,
that it's going to be prevented from being attached, right?
So you can't lend against it.
And we can't have that political pendulum
that we see so often in the United States
impact our reserves policy as it relates to Bitcoin.
It allows us to go out into those government agencies,
identify where Bitcoin is currently being held
and custody that Bitcoin in a responsible manner consistent with its reserve status.
And so this has been one of the many things that I've been working on in Congress. I'm proud to say
that as of today, I've passed more legislation into law than anyone in the House or Senate.
And so we've got a strong, thank you, we've got a strong focus in my office to construct legislation
that has an opportunity to pass both chambers,
and that's what we're doing
with the American Reserves Modernization Act.
Wow.
What's the rough timeline there?
Good question.
Well, whatever we can dangle in front of the midterms,
do you think you'll say that?
Well, I'll tell you what, I don't control the timeline.
That's one thing I don't control.
But we're looking at a reintroduction here
within the next couple of weeks.
Okay.
All right.
So that is at least noteworthy.
We'll watch for the details on that.
Next up is the U.S. Attorney General.
And there has been a shift in how they are going to prosecute around the use of software that is designed to maybe obscure your transaction.
And the shift is instead of going after the developers, they claim now they're going to go after the users of the software.
And with the FBI as well.
The basic principle is that if you are developing software, if you are a coder, if you are part of that process, and you are not the third-party user, and you are not helping and knowing the third party is using what you develop to commit crimes, you are not going to be investigated and not going to be charged.
And obviously facts matter because if you're laundering money or violating sanctions, the mere fact that you happen to be a coder doesn't excuse you from criminal liability. So there's a distinction there. And that's why the facts of a particular case are very important.
I'm not sure if he's implying maybe the Samurai Wall developer case where they were creating privacy software and yet this doesn't appear to apply to them.
The nuance here is ridiculous.
If you really listen to what he's saying, he's saying you can write software for freedom technology.
You just can't use it.
So you can write the software, but you better not use it yourself because then you might be violating the law.
You see, that's essentially what he's saying, which is not much of an improvement.
If you're laundering money or violating sanctions, the mere fact that you happen to be a coder doesn't excuse you from criminal liability.
So there's a distinction there.
And that's why the facts of a particular case are very important.
Yeah. And so are the definitions of laundering money, et cetera.
You know, if we're going to be nuancing the facts of the case, then we should also be nuancing the definition of the terms.
But I really need coders to understand.
I really need the industry to understand that we have fundamentally changed the game when it comes to our investigations.
And if you're a coder out there and you're listening to me speak and you are under investigation or you have to hire a lawyer to respond to subpoenas,
your lawyer should feel very comfortable communicating with the FBI, communicating with the prosecutor on the case,
and making sure that they are not violating my memo.
because if they are, that can be elevated all the way to me, but certainly elevated within the
department because we are not doing that anymore. And I know that there's some lingering cases that
are very fact-specific and very procedurally complicated. And I'm not saying that as an
excuse. It's just, it's a fact. It's the way it is. But those cases are something that we're
continuing to deal with. But let me make myself crystal clear that I want to put my money where
my mouth is. And I expect Director Patel does as well. And when we say that we're not conducting
those type of prosecutions anymore, we mean it. And I want to make sure that that is felt
throughout the industry. Monday, Kash Patel also spoke. The message that was obvious was,
if you are in the technology industry and you want to participate in the crypto space,
we're not going to come after you with legalese games. We're going to try to make the rules as
clear as possible. You can develop on this. You can write in this. You can et cetera, et cetera.
It's it's as far as the U.S. government coming after you legally. You don't need to worry.
That was essentially the messaging over and over and over again Monday. And they did it through a
lot of painful public speaking and people that are better heard, not seen. Just my opinion. But
so that was a good message. But again, a little confusing, a little confusing. How are you going
to write the software and not use the software.
And if depending on what they define as money laundering or whatever it might be,
money transmitting, et cetera, you could still get screwed.
So that's I have some more in the updates, but that's some of the high level signal
from Bitcoin 2026.
So Paul Tudor Jones pretty well known as uh a rich macro investor and i thought this was
a great clip of his and i haven't played anything from him for quite a while and then in 2020 when
you saw again all the interventions both the central bank and the treasury you just knew that
the inflation trades were going to take off. And what was, of all of them, what was the best one?
At that point in time, it was Bitcoin. Bitcoin is unequivocally the best inflation hedge that there
is, more than gold, because Bitcoin is finite. There's only so much Bitcoin that can be mined.
The problem with it as inflation hedges, if you got into kinetic exchange, there's clearly going
to be cyber warfare. And anything that you have to deal with electronically is going down,
including Bitcoin. So strike one. And then secondly, quantum computing, who knows if and when
with AI advancing as fast as it is that we may actually have quantum computing. Now,
quantum computing, someone can come in and can hack any bank and hack anything they want to.
So in terms of it being a great inflation hedge, gold increasing supply every year by a couple of
percent. Bitcoin, there's a finite amount that can be mined. It's decentralized. And so in that
sense, it has the greatest scarcity value of anything. I mean, people are starting to get it.
So here was my takeaway from the week is we have at the high level, we have the Morgan Stanley's
and the Wonks that are moving from, OK, to actual adoption. You have Ibit attracting both the DGEN
types of betting and the financial responsible stabilization types of hedging and at incredible
volumes. Of course, you also have sailors snapping up like nuts and some of the other
treasury companies. Right. And then you have the policymakers and the policy enforcers.
So both the policymakers and the ones that are out there with the guns enforcing the rules,
both sides of that from the government at day one and day two of the Bitcoin conference,
trying to message as hard as possible
that you can work in this space and be safe
and that we're going to try to pass
some kind of legislation to make you happy.
And then you zoom out with Paul Tudor Jones,
who is hitting it right on the nose
every single time now.
This, he has a very sobering message.
Bitcoin is the best inflation hedge.
Boom, hits it right there.
It beats gold on scarcity.
Boom, hits that right there.
has the best supply fix. Nails that. We are really seeing serious realignment of how people view
Bitcoin from from product standpoint, from a technology standpoint, from a currency standpoint.
If if this was a Linux podcast, I would claim this would be the year of the Bitcoin desktop.
This is the year of the Bitcoin ecosystem or something. This is it since it's been happening
since 98, 99, something is shifting and every week more of these are falling into place.
The arc we just covered here goes from the macro wonks on Wall Street waking up, like
the big ones, like the final, final bears are waking up, right?
Do you understand what I'm saying?
Like some of the final boss levels on Wall Street are now being beaten just by momentum,
just by momentum, not even by, you know, like violence or campaigning,
just by momentum and consumer demand.
And you have the policy creators and the enforcers that are bending over backwards
to accept the new reality as fast as possible.
And I really, truly mean that.
Well, I never see government move this fast on any issue in my life,
unless it's something to do with, you know, milking the citizens or war.
It's really incredible.
And I think it's because more and more of them realize there is no stopping this train.
They realize it.
And they don't want the people coming for their skin.
So if they can do something to give the people a bit of an escape hatch, and of course their donors, and of course the businesses,
and if they can try to make the U.S. financial system relevant during all of this, well, this is an IQ test.
And if they fail this IQ test, then they probably deserve to have the people come for their skin.
And we're slowly seeing each one of them wake up and realize it.
There is no stopping that train.
The lever you have pulled breaks is not in service.
Please make a note of it.
Well, you can support the show just by doing what you do.
In the show notes, I got links if you want to buy sats on River,
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You can support the show by doing what you do.
All right, what do you say?
Should we get into some of them boosts?
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you, but what you can boost for your podcast.
Okay.
Our baller booster this week is Ginkgo Salad with 50,000 sats.
Hey, rich lobster!
It's Ginkgo, really.
I love it.
It's a good one.
Made me smile.
And just simply says thank you for the value.
Well, thank you for the boost.
Appreciate it very much.
Our baller this week.
Chutoy comes in with 25,148 sats.
I like you.
You're a hot ticket.
And my wife just suggested that we put our son's college fund into Bitcoin.
Ah, she's a keeper.
She's a keeper.
That's a good bet.
You know, I mean, I'm just, I'm not going to make any advice either way,
but I'm just looking at the value of college jobs versus Bitcoin.
Chutoy.
I think it's going to be good.
All right.
Thank you for that.
I love that update.
appreciate the boost too. Bobby Pins here with 21,000
sats.
Oh, he got his second
node up and running. Very,
very nice. I'll be using
to try out some of the stuff y'all talked about
in the episode with Wes and Brent. In other news,
did you see that the politician said he was
mining Bitcoin 20 years ago and only got a fraction
of a fraction of Bitcoin? Some real low-effort
grifting going on over there in Vegas.
Yeah, I think, you know, there was
also, maybe he was, he might have been talking
about some sort of study they did
where they threw it away later, but he got the timing wrong.
But yeah, I saw that.
You know, they want you to love them so much, Bobby Pin.
They want you to...
Also, would you mind voting while you're at it?
Thank you. Appreciate the boost.
Joey DD's here with 2,000 sats.
Oh, whoop!
Pew, pew, pew!
No message, just value, though.
B-O-O-S-T!
Paranet Coders here with 4,000 sats.
Boost!
No message, though, just value.
Thank you, Paranoid Code.
And Turd in the punch bowl.
Fun will now commence.
2,000 sats.
Trump's happy to pump or break the market because he and his insiders are profiting off all the swings with well-timed trades and bets.
Yeah, that's been interesting to watch.
Also, I don't know, Turd, if you're watching the Iranian social media, but they're basically straight up implying that they are also placing bets both in the actual market and in the, like,
Poly markets and Kashi markets.
Have you seen this?
They're basically claiming that, like, since they know what they're going to do next, they're also doing some bad.
I mean, what is going on here?
What is going on?
This is casino to the max.
Thanks, turds.
This is clearly not going to last forever.
I mean, I would think it's going to be interesting to see what happens from all this.
Tomato comes in with 9,000.
One sats.
It's over 9,000!
He's talking about last week's episode.
Seems like an accurate description of Bitcoin to me and one that depends on two things.
Bitcoin being hard money and Bitcoin being usable as money for trade.
It's interesting that you asked if sailors downplaying downplaying Bitcoin as an asset when the clip you played is him describing it as capital.
In the classic political economy, capital is a specific role played by hard money.
So keeping it short, money used for money, commodity, money trades is capital.
This is how institutionalists use money.
contrasts us to commodity money, commodity use of money saved by a poor farmer.
Yeah, I think maybe you're right in that he's saying it.
He's just saying it in a clever way is what he's doing.
That's, I think, probably the best explanation is he is saying and he's just not saying saying
it in a way that, you know, I was hearing.
But I do get what you're saying.
And I like that you said it.
I had to get it one more.
Cosnow is here with 2,500 sats.
Make it show.
This is a great show.
Well, thank you.
Great boost.
Appreciate the value.
Mike Newman's here with 7,777 cents.
In my humble opinion, regulation mixed with growing pains and VC expectations made the value for value flow of Satoshi's much more centralized.
Related, my guess is that Saylor knows what's up and is playing things quiet.
Thanks for the signal, Chris.
So, Mike, what are the things that I think is when you're talking about boost and value for value flow and like boosting songs and things like that?
is the podcast side of it is built around Keysend,
which is awesome and a great technology
and works really well for boost,
but is not really widely supported
by the broader Lightning wallets.
And so that also reduces the clients
you can participate with, I guess,
is one way to put it, right?
And that's something that people are looking into,
but, you know, still has some issues,
some stuff like that.
And there hasn't been a lot of progress.
We'll see, we'll see.
I think some folks are probably just going to go off
in their own directions pretty soon
based on the things that I've been hearing.
Thank you, Mike.
Appreciate the boost.
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.
And Ace is predicting a delayed rate cut until September.
And that, when I read it, felt right to me, right?
Wersh comes in, assuming we're going to get more,
we'll get into that in a little bit.
I have some updates for you.
But Wersh comes in, punts on the first rate cut,
does a September rate cuts at some point.
Maybe I'm thinking, what I'm thinking too
is I think he's also going to change up
the FOMC press conference structure.
So I'm wondering if he does that first.
I'm just trying to play that out in my head a little bit.
But I think you're probably right, Ace.
We go May, June, July, August with no rate cut, possibly.
Boy, that's going to piss off Trump.
That might be too long, Ace.
I don't know.
I've got to think about that.
I like that you're putting it down, though.
I really like that.
Thank you.
Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee is here with 17,500 sats.
Every day we get closer to BIP 110's admitted plan to execute a coup de taut against the protocol.
Can you dedicate a small portion of Twib to give a weekly update on all the fight against the selfish dumbassery?
I will. You know what? I didn't this week. I did. I am watching things, Lee.
And there is still very robust discussions across all of the various online Bitcoin communities, even as of this morning.
It seems to be the knots community is moving ahead and they're loving it.
And you can find them flying their freak flag, thinking that seizing people's property is the best idea they've ever come up with because of the spam boogeyman literally does not exist.
They're worried about a spam Santa Claus that isn't delivering presents and they're willing to seize other people's property because they're scared of the spam Santa Claus.
So they continue to be scared of spam Santa Claus and continue to be very proud of deploying N.O.T.S. and love the idea of Bitcoin controlled by a tiny group of people.
They just think that's fantastic as well. And so they're very happy and continue.
But outside of that, I don't see a lot of technical discussion around the wider community adopting it.
However, it's still brilliant. And, you know, what I had hoped is that this would have we wouldn't have gone this direction,
that we would have instead have gone a direction of walking back some of the changes in core or
advocating a particular set of standard community configurations and overrides I don know but not seizing people property So I will keep an eye on it I have been watching it and when I get some newsworthy stuff I try to surface it Even you know even mildly I suppose
because I think it is something we do need to keep an eye on.
Thank you for the boost. Appreciate it.
Derivation Dingus is here with 9,500 sats.
Danger Zone.
Love the bonus content.
It was also great seeing you guys at Linux Fest.
Have a good luck today.
Oh, thank you, Derivation.
Danger Zone.
It's always really good to see you.
Good guy.
And also really appreciate that you were willing to come up and talk on Mike during the live show for love.
You know, it always helps keep things moving.
Somebody has to take some of those first steps.
And you did it.
You make me want to be a better man.
Appreciate the boost.
Odler's here with 2,102 sats.
Why you got to put numbers and letters together?
Why can't you just go for yourself?
Hey, Chris, regarding the news bit where they talk about crypto but only show the Bitcoin-related B-roll,
it got me thinking about how the word will eventually be used when shit coins die down
do you see a future where crypto would eventually be synonymous with bitcoin and not an umbrella term
i did now i think it's too tainted and especially you know you've got people out there that loved
in like like failed actor ben mckenzie who loves to go out there and constantly conflate bitcoin
and crypto because either he can't keep it straight or he's doing it intentionally and they just
continue to degrade and damage the brand. I think crypto is damaged as far as the cryptography
industry. I mean, I think it's, I think it's cooked as my kids would say. And so I've always
thought the appropriate industry term that the banks will like will be digital assets and digital
commodities and tokens, right? I think that's what they'll go with. And then because the people that
will consume this stuff at mass will be the sheep that buy it from the banks. That's what they'll
call it too. And it'll be like, you know, how you and I know that 802.11b is Wi-Fi, right? But
everybody else just calls it Wi-Fi. I don't, I don't think it'll be crypto. I think it'll be
like digital assets. Maybe if somehow crypto came through some kind of, you know, brand refresh and
people saw it differently than, you know, I think crypto right now is synonymous with scam and it
harms Bitcoin having that association with crypto.
And it's a shame.
So it'd be a massive brand refresh somehow.
Otherwise, they're going to have to switch.
They're going to have to pivot, right?
Digital assets.
I'd be curious to know what you think it could be.
What else could you call it besides crypto?
We need something because crypto, it sounds, you know, it sounds like you're hiding something,
you know, which is honestly not really how Bitcoin works either.
Good, good thought provoking boosts.
Appreciate that very much and appreciate the value hodler.
OB is here with a row of ducks.
2,222 sats.
More Twib is good.
That's a great assessment.
Thank you, OB.
Appreciate that.
Nakamoto6102 is here with 7,000 sats.
But that's not possible.
Nothing can do that.
Appreciate the value.
Appreciate the boost.
Thank you.
Thank you very much.
Eric PP is back with 3,333 sats.
Tough little ship.
Little.
Yeah, I'm feeling like a Star Trek theme.
No message, just value.
I am programmed in multiple techniques.
Let's keep with the Star Trek thing.
Deckbot's here with 2,000 one-sats.
You're doing a good job.
I like that one a lot.
Deckbot says,
I thought the insight into the editorial decisions...
Oh, right.
This is in response to the bonus episode I released.
I thought the insights into the editorial decisions were interesting.
As a Jupiter Party members,
if the leftovers are easier to produce,
it might be a good value add for members and fountain subscribers.
It touches on Macro News, shitcoin FUD, and politics without muddying up the main show and without the necessary analysis, just editorial reason to exclude.
But I am the type that likes to know how the sausage is made.
Now, that's good feedback.
I have been pondering that myself, actually.
The challenge is I need to wire up some back-end RSS infrastructure to make it work for the Jupiter Party members, and I just don't want to go too hard until I have that solved.
It's beautifully done on the Fountain side.
Fountain has a great solution for releasing early content, bonus content, member-only content.
You can pay with fiat or sats.
So if you're just interested in a TWIB-only membership, the Fountain way is already wired up.
And so I've been using it occasionally.
But until I...
I don't know what I'm going to do.
But when I figure out a way to plumb it up for the Jupyter Party members, that's when I'll go hard.
And that has been really a six-month delay because, I mean, who has time?
maybe with the,
maybe,
maybe with the assistance
of an agent.
Don't know.
Thanks, Deckbot.
Appreciate it.
And stay tuned.
I'm thinking like you're thinking.
I think it's going to happen.
Moon Knight's here
with 10,100,
one sat.
Live long and prosper.
Yeah, let's give him an extra.
Superior ability
breeds superior ambition.
And that wraps up
the Star Tricks.
I'm generally in agreement
with everything that was cut
regarding my bonus episode,
especially the FUD stuff.
I'm not the type
to hate watch.
So listening to FUD
that's been busted 10,000 times
isn't valuable to me.
It's more infuriating than anything.
I know, right?
That's what I've...
Like, some of the FUD is worth addressing,
especially the more novel FUD, let's say.
I think there's something to that.
But, like, the same stupid stuff,
like the McKenzie stuff,
the Ben McKenzie stuff,
failed actor Ben McKenzie,
oof, that's a little just obnoxious.
Thanks, Moon Knight.
Agree with that.
Hey, KiwiBitcoin guides back $4,567.
sass. Put some macaroni and cheese on there too. Thanks for the signal. As always, I'm watching
some of the Las Vegas conference and it's so far from the cyberpunk and freedom ideals Bitcoin
started. We need more. So from the, we need more shows like this following on from last week. Tell
us more about what you'd like to do with membership. Something similar to LUP. Is there a membership
model you've seen somewhere you like? Tell us more. You know, that's a great idea on membership
models that I like. I I'd have to think on that. I'd have to think on that. I'm not really a fan
of putting most of the Twib information behind a paywall, because I think it's important
that it's out there.
I think that's why I want to make it value for value.
But I do think there's something to like extra stuff that's supplemental to the show, stuff
that people or longtime listeners would be more interested in, you know, that kind of
thing.
Maybe there's something there to make the show financially viable.
But I think it's pretty important that the core analysis, the core news is out there
for free for everybody.
And if the show's not sustainable doing that, then it's probably not worth doing.
But I think it is sustainable.
We've had some really good support since episode 99.
And I do have some ideas for membership stuff in the works.
So, I mean, it's getting there.
It's really just a matter now of my time.
But, you know, who doesn't have plenty of time?
That's my next thing to solve.
Thanks, Kiwi.
Appreciate it.
Gene Bean's here with 2,222 Dats.
He says the edits were spot on on the bonus.
So I think Gene agrees with all the removals.
That's good to hear.
I don't really think anybody came in with a hard,
you should have kept that in the show.
maybe some people thought the fun stuff but i did see that mac mallers gave me a quick note saying he
was 50 50 some of it could have been left in you know but when in doubt he agreed with leaving it
out appreciate that signal everybody appreciate the boost that bonus episode also brought up the
support a little bit which is really really great and we had 33 of you stream sats collectively you
sat streamers were one of our baller boosters the baller booster 76 752 sats from our streamers out
They're just passively supporting the show.
Well, I'll be dipped.
Thank you very, very much.
When you combine that with our boosters, the show stacked a grand total of 311,000 sats.
Up 311, 400.
Jeez, I got a brain fart here.
Let me add it all up.
311,440 sats.
There it is.
I did it, you guys.
I got it.
I did the math.
311,440 sats for episode 102.
Oh, oh, oh, thank you very much.
Fountain makes it easy to boost, but there's Albi Hub.
You can connect that to Fountain and all kinds of apps,
including just boosting from the podcast index website
if you have Albi and the Albi extension.
This here is a free podcast to try to make it as useful,
high signal as possible, because the idea is the higher value I make it,
the more likely you are to support it.
It is a virtuous cycle for podcast content creation,
and I think it's the recipe to beat the algorithm-driven,
ad clickbait driven, gotta grow at all costs driven kind of crap internet content that is
poisoning the information out there. And it's wrecking Bitcoin information as well.
This model, the idea is really simple. It does require participation on your part.
And sometimes that can be a little bit of a stretch, but it continues to always incentivize
the show to create the highest quality signal possible to try to get you the best information
possible to continue to incentivize you to support the show. The other forms out there, like, you know,
getting paid by X or YouTube or advertisers don't necessarily. Well, I mean, I'm trying to be put it
nicely, but let's just be real. The incentives are just different there. Some people can walk that
line better than others. But I think when you're dealing with signal and information like this,
that's about Bitcoin, about your savings, about things that can be so heavily influenced by scams
and other people's weird-ass priorities
or selling crazy-ass tokens.
I just think this model is so vital for this type of show.
Out of all of the shows I do,
it's the most vital for this type of show.
So your support or a membership at Jupiter.Party
or through Fountain,
it really does make the difference
because I think it's the only thing that really works.
And if we can't have it that way,
well, then we just can't have nice things.
Well, it looks like Kevin Worsh is moving right along.
This is going to have major ramifications for Bitcoin, not to mention Worsh holds some Bitcoin and is invested in a lightning company as well as other crypto companies.
And not only was his Senate committee hearing smooth for the most part, but just as I got on the air, another group confirmed him and now he's moving forward in another process.
and some of the politics that were playing around J-Pow seem to be settling down, clearing the way for Warsh.
Republican Senator Tom Tillis says that he is willing to end his block of Kevin Warsh getting a vote to be the next head of the Federal Reserve.
Tillis told Meet the Press that he thinks Warsh will be, in his words, a great Fed chair.
The senator had said previously that he wouldn't vote for any new Fed nominees
until the Department of Justice dropped a criminal probe into current Fed chair J-Pow.
That happened on Friday. The Senate Banking Committee is set to vote on Warsh's confirmation on Wednesday this week with a full vote in the full Senate to follow.
Yeah, that vote just happened and he passed and now the full vote is proceeding. So that to me is sort of signal all around that this thing's probably going to go forward. I mean, it's still not a sure thing, but I'll keep an eye on it.
And then there's going to be, if he is approved, a massive realignment of reading the tea leaves around the Fed because there has been a regime of Jay Powell and Jay Powell's particular way of messaging and giving forward guidance that isn't the historical norm for the Fed.
The way Jay Powell has done it isn't the way it's always been done.
It's just what we're familiar with.
And Kevin Warsh has hinted that he may change that.
And if he changes that, we're going to see a reaction.
We're going to see a response.
And I think he should change it.
I think he should. You know, if I'm going to inject my opinion here, I think he should.
I think there's been too much of this, you know, living and breathing off of every little word that
JPOW utters. You know, the tone, even the tone that he answers is interpreted by these traders.
It's absolutely ridiculous. They need the candy taken away. They've been on a sugar rush for far
too long. Let's go back to the Bitcoin conference just for a moment. I have one or two updates,
maybe from there that we should play. And first up is going to be Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is
almost all done with her terminus. She puts it, she's out of time and she's out of patience,
and she expects to have an update on the Clarity Act soon.
To craft legislation in Washington, we are going to mark up the Clarity Act in May. We are going to
get it to the finish line. We are going to have the market structure that allows us to innovate,
you to innovate, America to lead the world on this freedom asset. God bless you. Thank you very
much for the privilege of serving you in Washington, D.C. And that will probably be the last we see
from her, at least in an official senatorial capacity at a Bitcoin event. And she says the
Clarity Act will get marked up in May. All right. All right. Now, let's stick here with the conference
for a moment.
Block was up on stage
with a lot of news this week,
some of which we'll get into
in just a moment.
But they also announced
the number of merchants
that are accepting Bitcoin payments
using their terminals.
Today, we have over 800,000
payments enabled businesses
turning a new one on
every eight seconds.
So over 800,000,
808,000, I believe,
was the number they had up on stage.
They also announced
that they have a new
hardware wallet device
for their, what's it called?
BitKey, the BitKey, a new update to the BitKey that has a screen on it that shows you more information, which I think was one of the number one criticisms that you couldn't verify using the screen on the BitKey.
They also announced a connection in some bit with the Cash App where you'll get a percentage back on certain Bitcoin purchases.
And they're getting pretty aggressive.
It's nice to see.
It's nice to see them up there.
And 808,000 merchants that have turned on accepting Bitcoin payments is a big deal.
Now, let's play one more from the conference that I passed over.
but I think it's worth at least touching on.
Mara, obviously a huge, huge player in the mining space,
and their CEO Fred Thiel were a major presence at the Bitcoin conference And while he had his time in the spotlight he announced the Mara Foundation
So today I'm proud to announce the launch of the Mara Foundation.
The Mara Foundation is our new initiative dedicated to supporting the long-term strength,
resilience, and accessibility of the Bitcoin network.
It will operate independently from Mara's core business.
This isn't about driving revenue.
It's about investing in the parts of the ecosystem that don't have clear economic incentives, but are critical to Bitcoin's future.
That includes supporting Bitcoin's long-term security, including research into emerging threats like quantum computing,
funding open source developers, the people who maintain and improve the protocol without centralized backing,
expanding access to self-custody so more people around the world can actually use Bitcoin, not just hold it on an exchange.
advancing policy and advocacy to ensure bitcoin remains open permissionless and protected
and investing in education for users developers and policymakers who are all still early in
understanding what this technology can do i thought the comment there about quantum was
interesting and self-custody i i you know if i were a major bitcoin miner i would definitely have
some interest in this space okay last clip last clip i said there's only gonna be a couple but i
want to also sneak this one in. This is the Tether CEO, Apollo, and he is talking about
lightning as rails for the AI economy. He thinks that agents will require trillions of daily
payments from people and AI agents in general, just working between each other, and that the
current financial rails will not support that, and that it's going to be lightning.
Computer, any AI agent to have a self-custodial wallet.
So we believe in a future where billions of people, billions of machines, and billions of AI agents will need a self-custodial wallet.
People need to be in charge of their own wealth.
People need to be able to transact with whoever they want.
And so we wanted to create something that everyone could use that would support any asset, but most importantly would support Bitcoin.
I mean, there is, even from the pure physics point of view, I mean, technology is physics, from the pure technological physics point of view, we know that the best way to scale the future need of payments, when AI agents will be everywhere, there will be the need of trillions of payments per day.
and the current financial transport layers
are not going to be able to cope with that.
Things like Lightning Network are the right way
because Lightning Network is a peer-to-peer transaction layer for Bitcoin
and I'm very happy to see WDK supporting that.
You know, I do think he has something here
because I have experimented a bit with my agent
and using Nostra Wallet Connect to talk to AlbiHub.
And I do think it actually has been pretty good.
I think it's been pretty successful.
There's also been a lot of talk about the companies like Bitcoin treasury companies
like Strategy and MetaPlanet and what their role is, how useful they are,
what their customer base is.
I think everybody here is interacting with Bitcoin in some way.
everybody here came to a Bitcoin conference.
And so when George says...
This is Dylan LeClaire.
Of course, he works for MetaPlanet,
Japan's version of the sailor strategy.
Well, it's early.
Maybe you're like, well, it doesn't feel early.
I've known about Bitcoin for five years.
But I think the reality is,
and this is something that I didn't fully appreciate
until kind of sitting on this side
as an operating company,
talking to various classes of institutional investors,
you're like 99% of the capital in the world
can't buy Bitcoin.
They can't even buy Bitcoin ETFs.
And George, I think we spoke on this on a panel two days ago or yesterday.
These big pools of capital, trillions and trillions of dollars, have mandates.
And they can't buy Bitcoin.
They can't buy commodities.
They can't buy funds or ETFs.
They can only do one thing.
Some of them are fixed income.
Some of them are equity investors.
Some of them are long-short or convertible arbitrage.
And so, you know, a lot of Bitcoiners, including myself, had this, you know, vision or has this thesis that Bitcoin wins and, you know, hyper-Bitcoinization is this event.
And, you know, at some point Bitcoin's worth a million or five or $10 million equivalent at some point in time.
But what that actually looks like, right, if you're a Bitcoin maximalist in that fashion, it doesn't happen without all of this happening, right?
It doesn't happen without, you know, big bad BlackRock and Wall Street coming in and institutionalizing the asset.
Like, what do you think Bitcoin winning looks like?
It looks like $200 trillion flooding into the market in some way or some form.
And right, so that's, you know, there's private credit, there's equity investment, preferred investment, senior debt, right?
All of this stuff, these are pools of capital that are latent, that are ready to be tapped into.
And so the genius of Michael Saylor and strategy from 2020 onwards was realizing that and then creating an instrument for each of those pools. And so Stretch is a big, big TAM. Everybody wants no volatility and high yield. So I think that's the golden goose.
But I think, you know, a lot of idealist Bitcoiners who think Bitcoin is going to go to $10 million simultaneously dislike Wall Street or dislike the treasury companies. And that's, in my opinion, that's very paradoxical, right?
I think he's right. And I because I kind of I don't love it. I don't love Saylor having, you know, one percent of the supply or, you know, almost a million coins. It does leave me a bit uneasy. But then at the same time, I recognize he's absolutely right. You don't you don't get to be a, you know, five, six, ten trillion dollar, twenty trillion dollar asset if the banks aren't involved.
so it's
it's an uncomfortable
it's an uncomfortable thing
it is a very uncomfortable thing for me
and I thought that was a good clip from Dylan
and you know
he's seen it now from the MetaPlanet side
and he's got a good point
I'd like to know what you think
if you're uncomfortable with it
but think it's also
I don't want to even say it's a necessary evil
it's just a necessary part
of the evolution of Bitcoin
is that the right way to put it?
I do have, let's just wrap it up.
I do have one more MetaPlanet story.
And then I think it's time to get to the state of the network and our final clip of the week.
So MetaPlanet is launching a Bitcoin rewards credit card.
There's going to be, I think, a lot of these.
That's maybe more of the story is that this is a emerging category of products.
One of the largest Bitcoin treasury companies in the world.
But what's really cool about the MetaPlanet Lounge is it's a little piece of our history as a company.
We still have the Royal Oak Gotonda Hotel in Tokyo, and we leveled one of the floors, essentially, and are now building out a really cool Bitcoin in-person space.
We'll have podcast studios and events and meetups and so on.
You're building out a lot more than a hotel, right?
I think you have a car coming soon.
I know you're working on Preferred So-I here.
We're quite busy.
Absolutely, yes.
So recently at our annual shareholder meeting last month, we announced that we are releasing a MetaPlanet credit card.
We're targeting an August release date for that, and users will get to earn 1.6% back in Bitcoin.
Now, that's the shareholder rewards tier.
Folks who are not MetaPlanet shareholders can also get the card, but it's going to be a slightly reduced reward.
So it's a really nice benefit for our shareholders.
Does this roll out to shareholders first before anyone else, or is it to the general public at the same time?
It's my understanding that it'll be available to both, but yeah, the shareholders will have a higher reward tier to start.
So just, you know, encouraging people to buy a few more shares. Get into the game.
We love seeing the MetaPlanet community grow.
We have a really outstanding shareholder benefits program that was just announced, and the credit card is really just one of those benefits among many.
Smooth!
Man, that was good. That was really smooth.
but also come on all right last clip this is now again we're zooming out we're going outside of the
bitcoin conference and the media discussing bitcoin around it because of it is it's you know it's in
the news this week this is mike novogratz i think he still has his luna tattoo maybe he got it lasered
off i'm not sure and he thinks retail is back this is one of the discussions we've been having as a
bitcoin community is why isn't retail in anymore did they get so burned out by you know maybe the
October 10th crash and all of the crap coin scams. I mean, that would burn most people out.
Where is retail? Everybody's been saying, well, Novogratz thinks he knows where retail is. He
thinks they're buying up strategies products. They're buying up the Sailor Strike stuff.
It's interesting. U.S. retail has come back, period, end of story. And you see it through
the ETS, but mostly you see it through MicroStrategy. Sailor, the wizard of MicroStrategy,
Michael Saylor is back and he is selling stock and he is selling perpetuals and he is buying
Bitcoin and his premium is expanding, not contracting. What it means by now, you're 130
times NAV. His MNAV is 130 relative to the Bitcoin he owns. And so he can sell micro strategy and
make money, you know, create yield, as he says, for his investors. He dilutes his new investors,
current investors and, and dilutes his new investors. And, and, and it's a creative to
new investors, to old investors. And so that sounds bad. It's a, a strategy that he has almost,
he's almost the only guy that actually has this strategy built in. I wonder why, you know,
he had all these other dads that tried it. They all traded discounts, but, but Michael has managed
to create this cult of people that trust him
and that buy MicroStrategy as their Bitcoin proxy.
So they buy it as MicroStrategy and it's working.
And that is, I mean,
he bought two and a half billion dollars of Bitcoin last.
There's not enough supply to eat up a billion a month
from a billion a week from MicroStrategy.
Yeah, okay.
All right.
I mean, that's true.
Boy, you're really not selling it there, Mike.
I'm not sure retails.
I'm not, I mean, I'm sure some, right?
this is where I would like your opinion, audience.
I think the poly markets and the, you know, the cashy betting, all that, that's a way,
way bigger draw for retail, way bigger draw.
Sports betting, sports stuff, you know, that's way bigger draw than buying Strike or MSTR,
right?
Am I wrong here?
I mean, I don't doubt that large buyers are buying up, you know, Mikey's product.
I think that's probably very much happening right now.
But I think retail, you know, they're there. I think it's beyond them. I think it's it smells like a Ponzi and the research required is beyond them. I don't think they're I don't I just don't think that it's what Mike says. I don't think that's where retail is going. Maybe some of it. Maybe I think that was during the summer of last year. I think now it's it's betting markets and whatnot. And I think that's a real shame.
And, you know, people that are, you know, maybe every now and then they're making some money.
But on average, if they just would have taken that same money and DCA'd into Bitcoin, probably would be a lot better off.
And so I just disagree with Novogratz.
I'm curious, though, what you think.
Maybe I'm wrong.
Maybe retail is going in here.
And I'd also like to know your feelings on betting markets pulling action away from Bitcoin.
Like, what can Bitcoin do there?
There's nothing, right?
It just feels like it's going to be, it's one of these things people are going to have to experience the pain.
like going to the casino
and some people are going to get stuck?
I hope, is there another?
Please tell me there's another version of this out there.
Well, Jack Maulers will be taking the stage today,
probably just a little bit after I publish this episode.
So if he makes news, I'll cover it next week.
I suspect you'll be talking about 21 and strike.
Probably not anything that massively impacts Bitcoin, but you never know.
He did have a moment on stage, though.
And this is a good clip maybe you could save and play for those of you, for those out there that are struggling to understand why Bitcoin is still better than gold.
Because gold had a good run, you know.
It had a really good run, and you could argue in times of uncertainty, going with a classic is the safer bet.
But I thought Jack had a great explanation why Bitcoin still wins out in the end.
Me trying to understand why Bitcoin was better than gold, believe it or not.
And the reason Bitcoin is better than gold is because Bitcoin is uniquely both a monetary asset, lowercase b.
It's a bearer instrument.
It's a commodity, right?
But it's also a monetary network, uppercase b.
What's the gold monetary network?
There's no, it's us.
My human legs are the gold monetary network.
The gold monetary network is if I need to get gold to Nigeria,
I better take my ass to the airport.
That's what the gold monetary network is.
And Bitcoin was both.
It was able to achieve transaction finality
without me having to deposit it
the government, which gives me an IOU. And in 1971, they said, what's yours is no longer.
And it was this monetary network idea. And I was like, holy crap. And this was 2019. I was
however many years old. And I said, wait a second. So I can, the equivalent of throwing a gold bar
from here to Nigeria in less than a second and at no cost. Well, that's kind of cool. And if the
person wanted to send Naira or dollars or euros or pounds, well, they can give it to me. I'll turn
it into the faster gold. I'll throw it to Nigeria in less than a second and for free, and I'll convert
it back into the currency. No problem. Bitcoin's a global, liquid, saleable asset. It's easy to get
in and out. And so it's this idea of my passion for using Bitcoin as payments is actually to
dematerialize the chokehold that card networks and centralized entities have on our ability
to facilitate settlement.
That's what I want to be free and open
so that a David Marcus can launch what he wants,
so that Miles can launch what he wants.
And ultimately, as an American,
what do I want when I go check out?
I want all the greatest entrepreneurs in this country
to compete to give me the best wallet to check out.
And right now, I don't have access to the Visa rails.
I don't have access to the MasterCard rails.
They're abusing these merchants and treating them unfairly.
And so if we can use Bitcoin, this network,
as an open, interoperable, it does the job that Visa does.
It does the job that Swift does.
And we let everyone compete at the edges,
drive costs down, be innovative.
There'll be millions of wallets.
If your favorite color is pink, if you like this,
of course, why not?
But right now, there's not a lot of options.
You can either get a Visa or a MasterCard, that's it.
So anyway, I think it's a consumer problem.
So now if we have this network implemented, it works.
How do we change consumer behavior?
Do we need to give them more Napa Valley wine If so who going to pay for that Is Dorsey paying for that I assume not And so I think it a consumer behavioral thing but the long arching vision is using the network to free ourselves of an abusive relationship with corporations that I think have created duopoly and open up competition and innovation to what is core to money which is value exchange
Let's check in on the state of the network.
I'm wrapping up at Blockhite 947,165.
The Bitcoin price for U.S. greenbacks is at 76,160.
That makes our sats per dollar 1,313 sats for one U.S. greenback.
We're currently down 39.6%.
Down but not out.
All-time high was on October 6th.
Our retarget date for difficulty is now May 1st, with an estimated downward adjustment of 3%.
Reachable Bitcoin notes has spiked up nicely this week.
Good job, everybody.
24,196 powerful notes.
Yes.
Back up at 24,000.
So good to see.
Bitcoin price is up 0.3% in the last 24 hours, down 3.8% in the last seven days,
and currently up 12.3% for the last 30 days.
We have 354 blocks until the next target.
And if you want to spend your Bitcoin fast right now,
it's just two sats for a V-byte.
Simple.
Two sats per V-byte is cheap.
Get a lightning channel set up too.
I mean, go for it.
Consolidate.
Move your stuff around.
Get a lightning.
Enjoy it.
You'll look back at this one day.
It is so great to see things moving along seeing the nodes come back up That is so fantastic 64 of those nodes on tour Things moving right along The Bitcoin network is doing just fine
Well, if you made it this far, links to what I talked about will be at ThisWeekInBitcoin.show along with the Mac Catalog.
A whole bunch of good stuff over there at Jupyter Broadcasting.
My goal is a show that doesn't get distracted by the emotions around what's going on, but focuses on the signal so you can plan for yourself, your friends, your family, your business, whatever it might be.
So you can always let me know how I did with the boost.
And of course, it's a great way to support the show as well.
And this week, I'm going to wrap it up with a value for value track.
As you know, I always do.
And this is a fun one.
It's What You Mean to Me by the artist Strange Love.
If you boost while the music plays, 95% of the sats go to the artist.
See you back here next week.
Well, I know
I know what can make you proud
If I won't give you a chance
To hear me
Well, you know you always bring me down
Although you don't care about me as nearly
As much as I want you to
But now reach out explain your three things we had before You say more Nothing I can Fake So what
The fuck
I can't get you to see
What you need to be
So now I'll try to say to you
Oh, how much I really want to say
Well, if it feels worse than it did for you
Now you won't, you gave me the time that I needed to say
How much love won't you have to give?
But now we shall explain the feelings we had before
It'll say nothing I can't think
So what the fuck
I can't get you to see what you mean to me
Mm hmm.