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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 99.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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This is one of those weeks, had I recorded earlier in the week,

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it probably would have been a very different episode.

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It's almost like I planned it this way, which I did not.

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But for all of this to be happening right around episode 100, it's kind of remarkable.

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It's just going to make it super easy to refer back to this moment in history.

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Go back to episode 100 and listen to this moment.

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So that's pretty, I don't know, good for the show, not great for the world.

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So let's set the stage because today's topic is really about energy.

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And when we talk about energy, we're also talking about the flow of the dollar and how that impacts Bitcoin.

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Energy is the story that really impacts us this week.

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And trust me, it does get to Bitcoin all the way to one economist calling for Bitcoin to completely crash because of its dependence on energy.

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But I need to set some context by talking about Iraq for a moment.

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We always say these conflicts, they're about oil.

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And that's true.

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Because when it's about oil, it's really about the dollar system.

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One of the richest oil fields in the world is in southern Iraq.

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It's called majnun, which means crazy in Arabic.

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But what's equally crazy is that the revenue from this oil field and others like it

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is controlled by the United States.

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America doesn't own them.

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It doesn't pump the crude.

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but more than two decades after its invasion, it retains influence over Iraq's most important

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source of income. This has real-world consequences for Iraqi politics and the economy, and on how

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Baghdad balances domestic interests with U.S. expectations. After the 2003 invasion of Iraq,

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the U.S. imposed a new financial structure on energy revenue, mandating that proceeds from

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oil and gas sales be paid into the Development Fund for Iraq, or DFI. The fund was based at the

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New York Federal Reserve Bank, so Iraqi oil revenue remained outside Iraq. The DFI eventually

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became an account of the Central Bank of Iraq. Legally, this money belongs to Iraq,

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but operationally, it continues to pass through American financial and regulatory systems.

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Ah, yes, ensuring the flow of the dollar system. The flow of the dollar and the flow of oil are

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definitely linked. The problem is the U.S. wants to have it both ways right now. It wants everyone

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to trade using the dollar. In fact, why not buy up more dollars right now? We got a great deal.

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At the same time, the dollar continues to be the U.S.'s strongest, most abused weapon.

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I'd like to ask you, what more can we be doing as we see us place pressure on the Ayatollah,

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who is no friend of the United States of America?

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This is Katie Britt. She's a Republican senator from Alabama, and she is currently questioning

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Treasury Secretary Scott Besant from a couple of weeks ago.

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And as we see what he is doing to the citizens of his own country and the streets, what more can we be doing to make sure that we are placing the pressure that we need to?

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Well, what we can do at Treasury and what we have done is created a dollar shortage in the country.

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So right there, that's kind of the, I think, most important key phrase.

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What they have do is created a dollar shortage in the country.

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They're engineering a dollar shortage.

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Well, what we can do at Treasury and what we have done is created a dollar shortage in the country.

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At a speech at the Economic Club of New York in March, I outlined the strategy.

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It came to a swift and I would say grand culmination in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under.

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There was a run in the bank. The central bank had to print money.

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The Iranian currency went into free fall. Inflation exploded.

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Notice how this sounds like it's been in the works for months.

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I mean, the bank failure that happened in December was in the works via the dollar shortage program for a while,

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which kind of puts a new timeline on this entire conflict, or at least explains why we ended up here.

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The run of the bank, the central bank had to print money.

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The Iranian currency went into free fall.

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Inflation exploded.

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And hence, we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.

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We will continue monitoring all the partners, all the Iranian partners.

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It sounds like Scott Besant and the United States are very aware that their policy is putting the Iranian people out on the streets. That's pretty intense. I mean, just think about that from the perspective of someone outside the United States, maybe from somebody from the perspective of a country that has not the best relationship with the United States. It's a pretty dramatic thing for the Treasury Secretary to admit.

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The strategy, it came to a swift and I would say grand culmination in December when one of the largest banks in Iran went under.

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There was a run in the bank. The central bank had to print money.

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The Iranian currency went into free fall. Inflation exploded.

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And hence, we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.

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We will continue monitoring all the partners, all the Iranian partners.

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The good news, Senator, is that we have seen, and we can see it with our fencing, we have seen the Iranian leadership wiring money out of the country like crazy.

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So the rats are leaving the ship, and that is a good sign that they know the end may be near.

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I want to switch quickly.

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All right, let's stop there.

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Because I just think that's such an interesting admission.

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it is an admission that the dollar system is weaponized and has been being deployed against

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the Iranians for some time. And that is the Treasury Secretary just saying it out loud right

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there. So, you know, I mean, if you were a leader of another country and you're hearing that,

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the responsible thing to do would be to reduce the U.S.'s ability and power to do that to your

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nation. Motivated by sanctions, geopolitical shifts and a desire to reduce American economic

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influence countries like China India Russia and some GCC members are now

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exploring alternatives to the petrodollar system although the green

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back still remains dominant in the global energy settlements international

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monetary fund data shows that the usage of dollar in oil trade is now about 57

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percent down from about 71 percent in 2000 there is a clear rise at alternative

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currencies for oil settlements China has pushed for Yuan based settlements for

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oil and gas particularly with the Gulf Corporation Council nations and has

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successfully used the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange for

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transactions Beijing also buys 90% of Iran's oil outside the dollar using the

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Yuan oil trading system Bix countries are increasingly bypassing the dollar

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for energy trade which has led to a slow erosion of the dollar's role in global

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transactions countries under US sanctions such as Russia and Iran are

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leading efforts to trade in other currencies to secure energy sales at

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discounts and reduce financial dependency

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Russia now trades with China mostly in Yuan and ruble with the country's dollar

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reserves almost gone Iran has turned to crypto and Bitcoin mining to avoid swift

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sanctions. Yeah, isn't that interesting? So the firepower of the dollar is, if this continues,

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just continues to decline itself. And it may be why we are seeing more military flexing from the

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White House, because they have to lean harder on military might as they cannot influence directly

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using the dollar might. And the longer this conflict drags out, the longer the situation

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on the straight continues, the more this situation becomes obvious to people all around the world.

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So something has to be done. President Trump saying that the ceasefire with Iran will lay the groundwork for a permanent peace deal.

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Let's get over to Megan Casella in Washington. She's got the latest on what we've been hearing.

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Megan, good morning. Morning, Becky. That's the biggest question right now.

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What talks will look like from here and whether there is room for agreement on a permanent deal?

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And I would say there's some real skepticism around that right now.

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Earlier this morning, Vice President J.D. Vance, who's over in Hungary, emphasized that the ceasefire and broader negotiations are contingent on the Iranians coming honestly to the negotiating table.

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He called the two week delay a fragile truce.

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If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we can make an agreement.

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If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if they're going to try to prevent even the fragile truce that we've we've set up from taking place, then they're not going to be happy.

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Because what the president has also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic, and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage.

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Oh, isn't that interesting.

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So it's going to be a tenuous piece at best.

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And it sounds like the Iranians still continue to charge for passage.

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Financial Times had a report saying they'll even accept Bitcoin for passage.

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I have not been able to confirm that reporting.

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But they do seem to be taking stablecoin and Chinese yuan.

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So either way, best case scenario, this isn't looking very good and we should expect some volatility as this thing sounds pretty tenuous.

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Now, Luke Grohman, he's kind of a bear these days, and he joined Lynn Alden on the BT Sessions podcast this week.

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And Luke is feeling especially bearish for the future of the dollar.

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And he says, we're kind of at a best case where if the U.S. can just walk away and pretend victory, but Iran continues to administrate the strait the way they are, it's essentially the de facto end for the $71 system.

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The Iranians, they're telling you they'll let oil move for Yuan.

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And people say, well, there's no, you know, Yuan is a closed capital account, blah, blah, blah.

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They're missing what the Iranians are doing.

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That's gold for oil.

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How do you get Yuan?

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It's simple.

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You buy, you sell dollars, you buy gold, you take the gold to China, you sell the gold to China for Yuan, you take the Yuan to Iran, you buy the oil, you put it on a boat, you sail it out of there, and away you go.

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And so that option is absolutely the end of the post $71 system.

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That is a, you know, whether we're allowing it to happen or as some assert or whether we can't do anything about it, you know, like sink the Chinese boats moving the stuff doesn't matter.

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You've got a yuan oil system parallel running alongside the dollar oil system.

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And that is de facto the end of the dollars post 71 status.

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So yeah, my best case, the happy outcome at this point is we walk away.

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We let them keep control of the Strait of Hormuz.

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They continue to transact in yuan through gold.

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Gold goes to the moon.

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The dollar falls sharply.

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That facilitates a reindustrialization of the US, high inflation, probably yield curve

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control, capital controls in the United States.

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That's the good outcome at this point.

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They all get uglier from here, from that point.

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And I think that maybe the only flaw I'd have there with Luke's analysis is that he's looking at the entire dollar system through the lens of the oil trade.

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Lynn comes in with a bit more context.

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And, you know, she points out the dollar system's more than just oil trade.

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I do think that I would separate the risk of a military kind of strategic defeat from the dollar system itself, at least in any sort of like near term timelines, even though one, of course, can lead to the other over time.

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And I do think that regardless of this particular scenario playing out, I think we were already headed sort of a multipolar world in terms of what sovereign store their reserves in.

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And then to some extent, even what they denominate payment in so that they can't be sanctioned or censored unilaterally.

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So I think we're already seeing just a natural shift there.

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And then I'd argue it's even in the U.S.'s interest to let that happen.

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That would have been an example of letting things happen kind of gracefully and kind of focusing on inward stuff rather than trying to maintain that unnecessarily.

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But this, I think, is an accelerant.

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There are moments in time where, you know, like the UK losing its reserve status was a process that, you know, there's World War I, then there's World War II, then there's the Suez moment.

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And then, you know, there's the rise first of kind of the early stages of that, the German economic power, then the rise of the American economic power.

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So there was this like gradual handover.

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And I think this is one particular moment.

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I think the Iraq war is already an early moment.

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That was kind of our, let's call it World War I for like, you know, losing status.

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It's like the early, that's the first shot.

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And then, you know, you have a global financial crisis, then you have COVID, then you have

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like lockdowns and things like that.

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And then you have, and the stimulus, and then you have, you know, this rising conflict between

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the US and China.

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And then you have this particular moment.

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And I think these are all kind of like flags along the way toward a more

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multipolar world.

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And all of that can be true without the idiocracy component.

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But then you mentioned idiocracy.

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I mean,

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I do think that it's an oddly present movie because it's,

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I mean,

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that was like a pro wrestler president.

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We have reality star president.

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We were in a situation where we're like facing election between a senile guy

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and a reality star.

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And,

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and like when the senile guy had to drop out,

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we had a person who couldn't win her own primary if she had to.

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So we skipped that.

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It just the way the timing worked out And so we find ourselves in like the silliest timeline And then we had you know like Doge Epstein Iran Boondoggle

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It's just we're in kind of, yeah, we are.

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Yeah, that idiocracy component is kind of happening alongside of what otherwise could have been these similar things, just slightly smarter.

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All right.

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So what's your take?

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Are you more with Luke that this is really going to snowball because they're going to end up having to purchase more and more gold, which accelerates the end of the dollar system?

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Or are you more with Lynn that there's so many debts and assets out there denominated in dollars and it's a slower unwind?

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Either way, it's a series of stupid events.

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Boost it and tell me your take.

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And for the people paying attention, you got to figure this just makes Bitcoin look great.

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I mean, we already know this.

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But to the people that have been on the fence, Bitcoin's held up pretty well during this conflict.

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And you're looking at this thinking, no sovereign risk is becoming more and more of a feature.

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I want to understand how you think about the price of Bitcoin in relation to what's happening in Iran

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and whether we think it's some kind of gold and it's a hedge, it's something else.

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Where are we? What is happening here?

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Bitcoin's been the shining light over the Iran conflict.

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I mean, stocks are down. You see bonds going down. You see gold going down.

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Bitcoin has been flat to slightly up.

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And I don't know if you can take a victory lap in the sense of over the last year, it's been the opposite.

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Bitcoin's been down and those assets have been up.

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But I do think that people are saying to themselves, well, I thought that Bitcoin was supposed to just be kind of beta to the rest of these risk assets.

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And so if everything else is selling off, why is Bitcoin not selling off?

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And so I do think that there's a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel for Bitcoin investors who have been taking a couple of beatings.

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Do you think this was just a Bitcoin winter and we're now in some kind of pseudo summer?

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I think that volatility has significantly compressed in Bitcoin.

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It was, you know, an 80, 90 vol asset.

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Now it's like a 40 vol asset.

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It drew down 50 percent.

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That's kind of what you would expect in that kind of volatility environment.

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And I think that there's just a lot of people who hold Bitcoin who say, look, I like it at 60 plus thousand dollars.

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And the geopolitical uncertainty and chaos actually makes me want to own more Bitcoin rather than less because this thing is neutral and isn't subject to any one country.

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Is it happening from individuals or do you think it's through ETFs or what do you think is happening?

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I think it's a little bit of everything, right?

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One of the things that people have long talked about with Bitcoin is how do we get mass adoption?

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And that was the kind of the phrase everyone used.

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And this is what mass adoption looks like, is you have individuals, you have companies, you have ETFs, you have countries.

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But does that mean that the price discovery suggests that this is not on its way to the moon?

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Well, I think that maybe arguably has been more stable than some of these other things you're describing.

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But at the same time, we've had Cathie Wood and so many other people, by the way, including yourself, I think, who've talked about.

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I was thinking about higher prices.

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Tom Lee talked about, you know, half a million dollars, a million dollars of Bitcoin.

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And we obviously have.

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Yeah, I think if you look at gold as a good example, people used to talk about $5,000 gold price and it was at $1,800 and everyone kind of thought it sounded crazy, right? It will get there. I think Bitcoin is a very similar thing. What the timeframe is, is very, very hard to nail down. But what I will say is just look at the compound annual growth rate. You know, if the stock market compounds at 8 to 10% a year, Bitcoin should do something that is multiples.

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So where the conversation then goes to is, besides adoption timeframe, which can kind of be answered by the next question, when is the next wave of adopters going to figure this out?

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Cathie Wood has an explanation.

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Yes, I think what we're seeing now is the institutionalization of this new asset class that has a very low correlation with other asset classes.

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So believe it or not, in the Bitcoin community, down 50%, if that's as far as it goes, they'll consider that a real victory because you're right.

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The 85%, 95% collapses associated with a very new technology.

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That's done.

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This is a proven technology.

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It's a proven monetary system, and it's a new asset class.

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I think that's how they should be thinking about it.

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Now, Kathy, Anthony, they're always a little bullish.

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the reality is the global conflict it will settle down at some point and then when that reality

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becomes the new talk of the town the fact that there's a bill due for all of this will become

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a big topic and you have to wonder when that lands will things shift for bitcoin will matthew

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siegel from van eck who tends not to be quite as bullish as kathy or anthony thinks that that might

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be when things click for more people adoption continues to grow and the best leading indicator

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is the surveys, whether you ask retail investors or institutional investors, do you plan to allocate

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more to this asset class in the future? The answer is yes. And we're seeing that at the sovereign

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level where the first central bank has just bought Bitcoin for its foreign exchange reserves.

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We're seeing that obviously across Wall Street, you know, whether it's Morgan Stanley filing for

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a Bitcoin ETF and the retail investor, especially outside the U.S., you know, continues to allocate.

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So at some point, the bill for this war will come due and the fiscal and monetary largesse in G7 will become dominant again from a narrative perspective.

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Well, a brief update on some quantum FUD because it's starting to make sense this week.

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We talked about the research paper that was co-authored by Justin Drake, who works with the Ethereum Foundation.

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Well, he mentioned this week that rather than viewing quantum as a hurdle to overcome,

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he sees it as a market opportunity for Ethereum.

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It gives them a chance to stand out above the Bitcoins and the rest.

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So one interesting shift of mindset for me in the last few months is that I've stopped

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thinking about post-quantum as a hurdle that we have to overcome.

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And I think of it more as an opportunity.

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It's an opportunity for Ethereum to stand out as the very first global financial system that is post-quantum secure.

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Not just relative to its competitors, like Bitcoin and whatnot, but also relative to fiat and TradFi.

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And I think it would send a very strong message and kind of be a very natural security shunning point for the world to migrate over to Ethereum.

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And not only is it an opportunity for Ethereum to distinguish itself relative to its peers,

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but it's also an opportunity for Ethereum to become the best version of itself.

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And this goes back to the idea of the move to post-quantum essentially being a rewrite

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and that being a massive opportunity to start with a clean slate and wipe out technical debt.

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Well, isn't this all just really convenient?

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So one of the co-authors of the quantum research paper that everybody is panicking about, that happens to also think that this is a market opportunity for Ethereum.

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And on Tuesday of this week, Cointelegraph reported that while the threat has not yet materialized, the Ethereum Foundation is judged to cannot any longer delay a response.

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And the co-founder and what I like to call CEO Vitalik Buterin recently outlined on X proposals to significantly improve transaction speed and security over the next several years.

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The plan includes gradually reducing block slot times from 12 seconds to as low as two seconds and allowing faster transaction processing, quote unquote.

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And developers are also targeting a finality between 6 and 16 seconds.

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You know, somewhere in there.

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The roadmap, of course, spans multiple upgrades expected to go through the end of the decade and introduces quantum resistant cryptography designed to prepare the network for future computing risks.

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I love this so much.

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It is classic Ethereum.

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Quintessential put a bow on it.

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Classic Ethereum.

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Stay a while and listen.

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If you've followed East development at all over the years, you know they never hit their targets.

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I mean, the merge to go to proof of stake was missed, I think, by four years.

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They generally fall short of the original goal as well.

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So not only they're late, but they fall short of the goal.

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But what will be powerful here is the narrative.

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And it's a narrative that Wall Street can buy.

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And that is ETH can always be saying they're working on quantum resistance.

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They'll have an answer tomorrow for that question now.

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They have an answer for it.

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And that is where they can beat Bitcoin with a coordinated narrative set from the top,

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put out there by pumpers like Drake or Tom Lee or whoever it needs to be that can get

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on the different avenues to put the message out there that ETH is solving the quantum

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problem.

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Don't worry about it.

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We're on top of it.

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Those Bitcoin losers, they can't even get their crap together.

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Nobody runs that show.

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They can't organize.

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They can't do anything.

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Look at us, though.

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We're on top of it.

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Not only do we use less energy, but we're working on the quantum problem right now.

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And you know what?

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One day we're going to have finality down to like, I don't know, six seconds, maybe 16.

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I don't know, because we haven't written the code yet.

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But we're going to get a really, really tight because we can do that with blockchains.

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00:22:53,944 --> 00:22:55,524
There's no tradeoff at all to worry about.

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So quantum proof and no worries about tradeoffs or centralization.

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Do not concern yourselves.

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Buy some ETH.

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That's their narrative now.

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And they can get on that message for a decade, which is why I think it's really important when legends like Adam Back get on outlets like Bloomberg and they explain the reality of the quantum threat.

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And when Adam speaks, you should listen because their company, among others, are actually working on solutions for Bitcoin in a quantum era.

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Right. I mean, the current hardware, so the Google paper is talking about algorithmic improvements.

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It doesn't bring with it any hardware improvements, right?

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And the current hardware that the companies doing the research have is extremely basic.

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It generally doesn't have any error correction.

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The biggest calculation it's performed is to factorize the number 21 into seven times three,

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the sort of thing that primary school children can do or practice.

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So the hope they have is that with continued research,

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the hardware will get faster and eventually be able to tackle serious problems that today's

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computers can't. But today it's much slower than a calculator or something extremely basic.

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The prudent thing to do is to prepare Bitcoin and give people the option to migrate their keys to a

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quantum-ready format and to have, let's say, a decade in which to do that. So I think for that

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reason you know the longer times that bitcoin users have in order to migrate their keys for

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custodians and exchanges to move their coins to a quantum ready format the safer it will be and

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00:24:35,564 --> 00:24:43,244
blockchain researchers commented some quantum ready signature format into liquid which is a bitcoin

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layer 2 and liquid has a long track record of bringing first to live use features that later

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00:24:50,604 --> 00:24:55,884
got added to Bitcoin. So there is some precedent for that. We have been saying Blockstream has a...

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00:24:55,884 --> 00:24:59,744
To make it clear, I'll link to that in the show notes, Blockstream has been doing research on

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liquid that could be applied to Bitcoin in the future, where they believe they have solved some

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00:25:04,344 --> 00:25:09,084
of this. That's what he's talking about there. 20-person research team that's been working on

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this all of this year and into last year and published a number of papers and a number of

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00:25:14,144 --> 00:25:19,784
other researchers in the Bitcoin space have done likewise. So I think it's just that, you know,

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00:25:19,784 --> 00:25:27,224
negative news sells. So they get a lot of attention for quantum hardware research or

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00:25:27,224 --> 00:25:31,844
algorithmic research by talking about it in Bitcoin terms. Whereas, you know, the people

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00:25:31,844 --> 00:25:37,084
like ourselves have a 20 person team publishing papers, implementing things, putting them live,

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00:25:37,164 --> 00:25:42,164
that doesn't grab as much attention. No, no, it does not. Although maybe if they claim they could

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00:25:42,164 --> 00:25:45,244
like crack a military system or something like that, that would get some attention.

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00:25:45,244 --> 00:25:49,104
All right, another question for you.

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00:25:49,704 --> 00:25:51,444
I'm a little nervous about next week.

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00:25:52,324 --> 00:25:53,264
Episode 100.

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00:25:54,244 --> 00:25:55,364
Support for the show has been okay,

328
00:25:55,924 --> 00:25:57,004
but it hasn't been very good.

329
00:25:57,484 --> 00:25:58,344
I mean, it hasn't been great.

330
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I don't know.

331
00:25:58,884 --> 00:26:00,184
It just hasn't, you know,

332
00:26:00,304 --> 00:26:01,864
I think we're in a bit of a slump

333
00:26:01,864 --> 00:26:02,864
as a Bitcoin community.

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And I've also noticed that when I take time off,

335
00:26:05,844 --> 00:26:07,604
like I did to go to Planet Nix and scale,

336
00:26:07,984 --> 00:26:09,584
when I take even just one week off,

337
00:26:10,304 --> 00:26:12,344
the show dips about 10% in downloads

338
00:26:12,344 --> 00:26:13,144
for a month or two,

339
00:26:13,144 --> 00:26:14,404
and that affects everything.

340
00:26:14,984 --> 00:26:19,484
This time around, it dipped 13%, which is one of the larger dips, which is also interesting

341
00:26:19,484 --> 00:26:23,364
because the show had been on a 10%, 13% growth trajectory for quite a while.

342
00:26:23,764 --> 00:26:26,064
But I've noticed this over the years when I take a break.

343
00:26:26,564 --> 00:26:31,444
So I feel like we're kind of coming in episode 100 on shaky ground, which is a little awkward

344
00:26:31,444 --> 00:26:35,144
because we're also entering a new phase of history.

345
00:26:35,524 --> 00:26:40,924
At the same time, there's a lot going on at home too, and it's a new phase for me too.

346
00:26:40,924 --> 00:26:45,084
so I don't know I wonder what we should do to celebrate the 100 landmark because I

347
00:26:45,084 --> 00:26:51,384
I don't know exactly what the future path for the show looks like I want to keep going but I you know

348
00:26:51,384 --> 00:26:54,344
I think I think we will it's just you know what I mean like that's where I'm at right now which is

349
00:26:54,344 --> 00:26:59,304
very surprising to be at 100 I guess part of me in the way back in my mind thinks it'd be a great

350
00:26:59,304 --> 00:27:07,044
spot to cap it 100 run and if support's fatiguing a little bit maybe it's time you know go out I

351
00:27:07,044 --> 00:27:07,244
I don't know.

352
00:27:07,284 --> 00:27:07,704
I had a hundred.

353
00:27:08,284 --> 00:27:09,184
I probably won't do it,

354
00:27:09,244 --> 00:27:09,884
but it's just something,

355
00:27:10,064 --> 00:27:10,444
I don't know.

356
00:27:10,524 --> 00:27:13,964
And if you think there's something we could do to make 100 a little more fun or interesting,

357
00:27:14,084 --> 00:27:14,484
let me know.

358
00:27:14,524 --> 00:27:15,684
Or if you just think it should be,

359
00:27:15,704 --> 00:27:15,964
you know,

360
00:27:16,664 --> 00:27:17,444
job as usual,

361
00:27:17,664 --> 00:27:18,564
let me know.

362
00:27:19,264 --> 00:27:19,584
And,

363
00:27:19,624 --> 00:27:19,924
uh,

364
00:27:19,944 --> 00:27:20,624
I'll try to,

365
00:27:20,704 --> 00:27:21,884
if I get some ideas in time,

366
00:27:21,904 --> 00:27:22,844
I'll try to work them into the show.

367
00:27:23,344 --> 00:27:24,264
So that's what I want.

368
00:27:24,324 --> 00:27:28,304
I want your ideas on how we could celebrate episode 100 and kind of take a,

369
00:27:28,304 --> 00:27:28,484
you know,

370
00:27:28,504 --> 00:27:29,344
temperature check on,

371
00:27:29,384 --> 00:28:03,488
on the support for the show and see where we going from there Thank you everybody who does So also if you want to boost in and let me know if you with Luke or if you with Lynn you can boost in and give me your take on that too well I know this we got more show coming up your boost my favorite thought of the week some updates

372
00:28:03,488 --> 00:28:08,288
and of course a great clip to wrap us up so let me just touch on this you can support the show also

373
00:28:08,288 --> 00:28:09,528
by doing what you do.

374
00:28:09,908 --> 00:28:11,128
If you buy sats on River,

375
00:28:11,228 --> 00:28:12,388
use my link in the show notes.

376
00:28:12,448 --> 00:28:14,328
One of the best ways to stack sats in the U.S.

377
00:28:14,848 --> 00:28:16,308
You can use the link and support the show.

378
00:28:16,788 --> 00:28:17,988
If you're all about self-custody

379
00:28:17,988 --> 00:28:19,428
and you're in Canada or the States,

380
00:28:19,848 --> 00:28:21,068
check out the Bitcoin well.

381
00:28:21,448 --> 00:28:23,388
It's an automatic self-custody platform.

382
00:28:23,528 --> 00:28:24,268
They don't host the wallet.

383
00:28:24,448 --> 00:28:24,808
You do.

384
00:28:25,288 --> 00:28:27,228
If it's time to spend your Bitcoin via Lightning,

385
00:28:27,748 --> 00:28:29,568
the Bitcoin company has hundreds of gift cards.

386
00:28:29,648 --> 00:28:31,508
You can go from sats to gift cards in seconds,

387
00:28:31,728 --> 00:28:33,448
and they only support Bitcoin.

388
00:28:33,528 --> 00:28:34,548
They're not in all the other stuff

389
00:28:34,548 --> 00:28:36,028
like some of the other gift card places.

390
00:28:36,568 --> 00:28:38,008
The Bitcoin company, link in the notes,

391
00:28:38,288 --> 00:28:41,328
If you want to stack sats passively, the fold card is one of the best ways to do that.

392
00:28:41,428 --> 00:28:42,308
Big hit in our community.

393
00:28:42,468 --> 00:28:43,188
Link in the notes for that.

394
00:28:43,268 --> 00:28:45,988
And then last but not least, salt lending.

395
00:28:46,108 --> 00:28:47,988
Get access to your Bitcoin value without selling it.

396
00:28:48,408 --> 00:28:53,088
With rates that are lower and limits that are lower than some of the other providers out there.

397
00:28:53,868 --> 00:28:54,628
And yeah, you guessed it.

398
00:28:55,188 --> 00:28:56,328
Link in the notes for that too.

399
00:28:56,848 --> 00:28:59,628
You can support the show just by doing what you do.

400
00:29:08,288 --> 00:29:19,708
Four score and seven boosts to go.

401
00:29:19,848 --> 00:29:22,508
And we do have some boosts to get to this week.

402
00:29:22,628 --> 00:29:24,768
Let's start off with our baller booster.

403
00:29:26,128 --> 00:29:32,568
BMW Vroom Vroom comes in with 100,000 cents.

404
00:29:32,568 --> 00:29:34,008
Hey, Rich Lobster!

405
00:29:38,288 --> 00:29:40,288
Fun will now commence.

406
00:29:43,288 --> 00:29:45,748
Things are looking up for all my luck.

407
00:29:49,508 --> 00:29:50,348
Make it so.

408
00:29:50,828 --> 00:29:51,148
Wow.

409
00:29:51,568 --> 00:29:52,888
And he just says value for value.

410
00:29:53,028 --> 00:29:53,448
Thank you.

411
00:29:53,588 --> 00:29:55,008
That definitely picked things up.

412
00:29:55,108 --> 00:29:56,768
Really brought up the average for the show there.

413
00:29:56,868 --> 00:29:57,448
Thank you, BMW.

414
00:29:57,708 --> 00:29:59,408
Really appreciate that a lot.

415
00:29:59,868 --> 00:30:03,028
J-Cube also comes in with a very generous boost.

416
00:30:03,428 --> 00:30:05,988
45,900 sats.

417
00:30:08,288 --> 00:30:11,508
Oh, and I love this.

418
00:30:11,568 --> 00:30:14,188
This is value sent from my new Nix Bitcoin node.

419
00:30:16,008 --> 00:30:16,348
Yes.

420
00:30:17,068 --> 00:30:18,448
That's not possible.

421
00:30:18,588 --> 00:30:19,528
Nothing can do that.

422
00:30:19,628 --> 00:30:21,228
Complete with Albi Hub.

423
00:30:21,348 --> 00:30:21,728
Yes.

424
00:30:22,548 --> 00:30:24,008
Well done, J-Cube.

425
00:30:24,048 --> 00:30:25,128
And thank you for the boost.

426
00:30:25,628 --> 00:30:27,308
That is very impressive.

427
00:30:27,948 --> 00:30:28,608
Love to see it.

428
00:30:28,948 --> 00:30:30,928
MDS is here with 21,000 sats.

429
00:30:33,088 --> 00:30:34,368
Well, I'm not in the US.

430
00:30:34,828 --> 00:30:36,908
I don't give two sats about old D-sacks.

431
00:30:36,908 --> 00:30:38,388
But OpenCode sounds interesting.

432
00:30:38,948 --> 00:30:41,628
I'm grappling with OpenClaw at the moment, and I'm weak on SSH.

433
00:30:41,708 --> 00:30:44,608
I skipped your last episode after hearing you were going to, quote, try something different.

434
00:30:44,868 --> 00:30:45,708
Take that as a compliment.

435
00:30:46,188 --> 00:30:46,888
Maybe I'll check it out.

436
00:30:47,108 --> 00:30:49,668
P.S. The soundbite for 21Sats has grown on me.

437
00:30:49,748 --> 00:30:51,288
Yeah, it's kind of grown on me, too, actually.

438
00:30:51,968 --> 00:30:54,508
Anyone on Fountain of Not Streaming Sats or listening is a bum.

439
00:30:55,728 --> 00:30:56,048
Wow.

440
00:30:57,028 --> 00:30:57,808
A bum, huh?

441
00:30:58,288 --> 00:30:59,268
Yeah, it's grown on me, too.

442
00:30:59,288 --> 00:30:59,908
Isn't that funny?

443
00:31:00,608 --> 00:31:01,828
Yeah, I understand about the DSACs.

444
00:31:01,828 --> 00:31:07,028
See, if I were outside the U.S., I would still think it's notable that the U.S. had a crypto czar role.

445
00:31:07,388 --> 00:31:08,808
If this was, you know, the thing I followed.

446
00:31:09,228 --> 00:31:09,888
But I get you.

447
00:31:10,028 --> 00:31:12,048
Thank you, MDS, for the support.

448
00:31:12,648 --> 00:31:15,928
Hey, there's Gene Bean here with 4,444 sats.

449
00:31:16,088 --> 00:31:17,808
This old duck still got it.

450
00:31:18,288 --> 00:31:22,428
For a newbie episode, instead of worrying about Umbral versus Star 9 versus whatever it might be,

451
00:31:22,568 --> 00:31:25,988
maybe just focus on the components and how they associate and their settings.

452
00:31:26,248 --> 00:31:29,828
For example, what do you set in Bitcoin D or in Lightning D?

453
00:31:29,828 --> 00:31:35,588
do you run additional tools like electress or mempool or thunderhub or albihub or anything else

454
00:31:35,588 --> 00:31:42,228
if so which ones and how do you configure them okay do you do it at home do you don't have vps

455
00:31:42,228 --> 00:31:47,228
would you configure inbound and outbound access to components or the world would you use clearnet

456
00:31:47,228 --> 00:31:53,648
etc i do kind of see what you're going for there gene keep it generic so the problem i still have

457
00:31:53,648 --> 00:31:57,948
is the start nines and the umbrals and all the other ones you know they don't necessarily expose

458
00:31:57,948 --> 00:31:59,868
these settings, then you go spelunking in below.

459
00:32:00,308 --> 00:32:01,948
And I don't know if that's necessarily good advice or not.

460
00:32:02,008 --> 00:32:04,068
But I do think I like where your head's at on that.

461
00:32:04,688 --> 00:32:05,568
And there's something to work with there.

462
00:32:05,628 --> 00:32:05,988
Thank you, Gene.

463
00:32:06,748 --> 00:32:10,748
Gene also says, I'm excited by the prospect of seeing lightning on square terminals now

464
00:32:10,748 --> 00:32:12,008
that they're flipping on by default.

465
00:32:12,388 --> 00:32:12,868
I'm waiting.

466
00:32:13,068 --> 00:32:14,828
If anybody sees one, let me know.

467
00:32:15,308 --> 00:32:15,968
I'll do it.

468
00:32:16,368 --> 00:32:19,408
I've probably got, you know, a little bit of like spending money in my strike account,

469
00:32:19,508 --> 00:32:21,508
you know, 20,000 cents or something.

470
00:32:22,208 --> 00:32:24,388
I'd spend on a candy bar to see a square terminal in action.

471
00:32:24,508 --> 00:32:25,228
I'll admit to that.

472
00:32:25,228 --> 00:32:27,408
it may be a Bitcoin pizza purchase in the future,

473
00:32:27,488 --> 00:32:28,168
but I'll do it.

474
00:32:28,468 --> 00:32:29,708
It wouldn't be the first time.

475
00:32:30,188 --> 00:32:30,508
Thank you, Gene.

476
00:32:31,048 --> 00:32:31,668
Appreciate you.

477
00:32:32,308 --> 00:32:34,988
Sats over bits comes in with 4,000 sats.

478
00:32:35,808 --> 00:32:37,648
I really enjoyed the new operator episode,

479
00:32:37,748 --> 00:32:40,268
but I also would like a first-time node operator one.

480
00:32:40,728 --> 00:32:42,788
I get why that could be difficult to make work, though.

481
00:32:43,008 --> 00:32:45,588
Also, I think you could cover the new Core 31 mempool changes

482
00:32:45,588 --> 00:32:47,128
a little further in depth in one of your segments.

483
00:32:47,288 --> 00:32:47,628
Oh, really?

484
00:32:48,368 --> 00:32:50,068
I mean, there's not a lot more to talk about than I did.

485
00:32:50,068 --> 00:32:51,988
I did hit a high level, but, you know.

486
00:32:52,548 --> 00:32:52,788
Okay.

487
00:32:52,788 --> 00:32:55,708
I was wondering if people would be interested in that kind of stuff.

488
00:32:55,788 --> 00:32:57,148
That's good signal stats over bits.

489
00:32:57,748 --> 00:33:00,668
I could definitely spend more time in the update section on those kinds of things.

490
00:33:00,768 --> 00:33:03,168
I've been thinking about doing that a bit more, so I appreciate that.

491
00:33:03,608 --> 00:33:05,008
I'll take that under advisement.

492
00:33:07,508 --> 00:33:09,388
Rue Gator comes in with 4,000 stats.

493
00:33:10,248 --> 00:33:13,768
David Sachs' tenure will probably end up as the same category as Trump's presidency.

494
00:33:14,368 --> 00:33:17,228
Lots of loud, quote, I can fix it alone energy.

495
00:33:17,788 --> 00:33:18,848
But plenty of chaos.

496
00:33:18,848 --> 00:33:20,608
and in the end, either things got worse

497
00:33:20,608 --> 00:33:22,828
or we just went in a very exhausting circle.

498
00:33:24,268 --> 00:33:25,608
I wonder where we're at right now.

499
00:33:25,688 --> 00:33:26,328
Thank you, Brugator.

500
00:33:26,408 --> 00:33:27,228
Appreciate that.

501
00:33:27,548 --> 00:33:29,748
Hey, Ace Ackerman's back with a row of ducks.

502
00:33:31,208 --> 00:33:33,528
David Sachs has earned a C as CryptoZar.

503
00:33:33,628 --> 00:33:36,108
A lot of sound and fury, but really almost nothing.

504
00:33:36,548 --> 00:33:36,828
Mm-hmm.

505
00:33:37,508 --> 00:33:39,108
Yeah, I mean, it was good, I suppose.

506
00:33:39,768 --> 00:33:40,708
Net benefit, maybe?

507
00:33:41,608 --> 00:33:43,168
At least for Stamplecoins, right?

508
00:33:43,568 --> 00:33:44,088
Thank you, Ace.

509
00:33:44,168 --> 00:33:44,688
Appreciate it.

510
00:33:45,328 --> 00:33:47,508
Paranoid Coders here with 2,000 sats.

511
00:33:47,508 --> 00:33:48,948
Coming in hot with the boost.

512
00:33:49,008 --> 00:33:51,448
No message, just value. Appreciate that a lot.

513
00:33:52,828 --> 00:33:55,208
JPEG81 came in with 2,200 sats.

514
00:33:55,448 --> 00:33:57,248
Put some macaroni and cheese on there too.

515
00:33:57,808 --> 00:33:59,668
No message, just value as well.

516
00:33:59,828 --> 00:34:04,448
And Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 4,567 sats.

517
00:34:04,668 --> 00:34:05,288
He's a good guy.

518
00:34:05,528 --> 00:34:06,488
He's a real good guy.

519
00:34:06,648 --> 00:34:07,308
No, he's a great guy.

520
00:34:07,908 --> 00:34:11,248
For anyone interested in starting a node from scratch, there's a guide I wrote last year.

521
00:34:11,588 --> 00:34:12,208
Oh, I remember that.

522
00:34:12,528 --> 00:34:14,268
It's a little technical as you have to do it all yourself,

523
00:34:14,388 --> 00:34:16,848
from sourcing hardware to installing Linux and running it all through the command line.

524
00:34:16,848 --> 00:34:18,468
but it includes Bitcoin Core,

525
00:34:18,668 --> 00:34:19,228
Electrum Server,

526
00:34:19,328 --> 00:34:20,188
and it connects to your wallet.

527
00:34:20,828 --> 00:34:22,068
I've done this now on two servers.

528
00:34:22,228 --> 00:34:22,868
It's a lot of fun.

529
00:34:23,008 --> 00:34:23,988
If you like this kind of thing,

530
00:34:24,428 --> 00:34:25,648
it's also great to be a sovereign actor

531
00:34:25,648 --> 00:34:26,488
on the Bitcoin network.

532
00:34:29,048 --> 00:34:29,928
Kiwibitcoinguide.org

533
00:34:29,928 --> 00:34:31,308
and you can probably find it from there.

534
00:34:31,568 --> 00:34:32,868
It did get caught off in the message

535
00:34:32,868 --> 00:34:35,548
but the advantage to doing that

536
00:34:35,548 --> 00:34:36,548
even if you didn't run it in production

537
00:34:36,548 --> 00:34:38,368
would be just to understand the components.

538
00:34:38,848 --> 00:34:39,968
That would be very useful.

539
00:34:40,228 --> 00:34:40,928
Nice tip, Kiwi.

540
00:34:41,028 --> 00:34:43,388
Thank you for remembering and reminding us.

541
00:34:43,388 --> 00:34:50,768
Nakamoto 6102 is here with 3,500 sats.

542
00:34:51,328 --> 00:34:54,148
Thank you for helping us help you help us all.

543
00:34:54,268 --> 00:34:55,348
And he just says thank you for the value.

544
00:34:55,448 --> 00:34:56,348
Well, thank you very much.

545
00:34:56,408 --> 00:34:58,188
You're doing very well.

546
00:34:59,068 --> 00:34:59,788
Sarah Jade's here.

547
00:34:59,828 --> 00:35:03,688
Hey, Sarah, back with 3,466 sats.

548
00:35:04,108 --> 00:35:04,688
Let's go.

549
00:35:05,208 --> 00:35:06,088
Another great episode.

550
00:35:06,288 --> 00:35:06,948
Shameless promotion.

551
00:35:07,088 --> 00:35:09,428
If anyone is going to be in Vegas for the Bitcoin conference,

552
00:35:09,428 --> 00:35:11,288
I'll be performing with my full band

553
00:35:11,288 --> 00:35:14,208
and a stacked lineup of other value-for-value artists.

554
00:35:14,408 --> 00:35:14,888
Yes!

555
00:35:15,368 --> 00:35:15,888
Make it show.

556
00:35:16,088 --> 00:35:16,748
I love this.

557
00:35:17,388 --> 00:35:21,508
The artists will be at the, and DJs, at the Nos Vegas After Party.

558
00:35:21,608 --> 00:35:26,448
It's on Tuesday night, April 28th, at the We Are All Scream on Fremont Street.

559
00:35:26,928 --> 00:35:28,748
Dropping the link below to grab your tickets.

560
00:35:29,088 --> 00:35:31,528
Hope to see some awesome Bitcoiners and Nosters there.

561
00:35:31,928 --> 00:35:36,768
And I will put a link to that at nosvegas.shakespeare.wtf.

562
00:35:37,288 --> 00:35:39,148
I'll try to remember, put a link to that in the show notes too.

563
00:35:39,148 --> 00:35:44,868
great to hear from you Sarah Jade and good luck with the event feel free to promote in the future

564
00:35:44,868 --> 00:35:48,148
I love actually I think all I think anybody listening that's going to a bitcoin event should

565
00:35:48,148 --> 00:35:52,828
be promoting it here in the booth cheap way to get some airtime and promote a bitcoin event to

566
00:35:52,828 --> 00:35:59,188
the community I'm not going to stop you well I mean probably not yes that's amazing I've got the

567
00:35:59,188 --> 00:36:02,968
same combination on my luggage all right thank you everybody who boosted in including those of

568
00:36:02,968 --> 00:36:08,508
you below the 2000s at cutoff and of course our sat streamers you all 26 of you collectively

569
00:36:08,508 --> 00:36:11,988
stacked 51,932 sats.

570
00:36:12,048 --> 00:36:13,028
That's not too bad, really.

571
00:36:13,508 --> 00:36:14,568
When you combine it all together,

572
00:36:14,668 --> 00:36:16,388
especially with our baller booster,

573
00:36:16,848 --> 00:36:21,168
we stacked a grand total of 278,674 sats.

574
00:36:24,108 --> 00:36:26,308
Not too bad for 99, really.

575
00:36:27,068 --> 00:36:28,508
This is a nice uptick from what we've seen

576
00:36:28,508 --> 00:36:29,068
for the last few weeks.

577
00:36:29,148 --> 00:36:31,028
Thank you, everybody who supported episode 99.

578
00:36:31,188 --> 00:36:31,568
Got in.

579
00:36:32,048 --> 00:36:34,428
Got in before the 100 series you did.

580
00:36:34,528 --> 00:36:35,528
Thank you very much.

581
00:36:35,948 --> 00:36:36,548
Appreciate you.

582
00:36:38,508 --> 00:36:54,928
you're doing a good job if you'd like to boost the show fountain.fm makes it really easy these

583
00:36:54,928 --> 00:36:58,628
days but there's also a plethora of self-hosted options with albi hub you can even connect fountain

584
00:36:58,628 --> 00:37:03,908
albi hub you can also subscribe via membership support the show on autopilot fountain makes that

585
00:37:03,908 --> 00:37:08,868
possible with your sats or your fiat, or you can go to jupiter.party and support the network shows

586
00:37:08,868 --> 00:37:11,728
over there. Thank you everybody who supported the show this week.

587
00:37:11,728 --> 00:37:38,288
all right i waited this long it's time for my favorite fud of the week this one hurt this one

588
00:37:38,288 --> 00:37:44,948
hurt because it came from an economist who's well-liked, noted for calling the 2008 global

589
00:37:44,948 --> 00:37:50,608
financial crisis before it happened. His name is Steve Keen, and he recently appeared on the

590
00:37:50,608 --> 00:37:56,808
Diary of a CEO podcast. And even though, as he says, he knew about Bitcoin early on, he said,

591
00:37:57,068 --> 00:38:04,788
no, no thank you, even when it was cheap, because he's known forever it ultimately is going to zero.

592
00:38:05,548 --> 00:38:07,788
I wanted to come back to something you actually said earlier. You talked about

593
00:38:07,788 --> 00:38:10,968
Bitcoin briefly. I've heard you say that you think Bitcoin's going to zero.

594
00:38:11,548 --> 00:38:14,148
Yeah. Okay, this is worrying. I think I have some Bitcoin.

595
00:38:15,568 --> 00:38:18,768
You're an economist. You're saying that Bitcoin is going to zero. Why?

596
00:38:20,028 --> 00:38:25,848
Ultimately, because of its reliance upon energy. I mean, you know, Max Kaiser and Stacey Herbert,

597
00:38:25,968 --> 00:38:26,988
have you met them at all? No.

598
00:38:26,988 --> 00:38:31,868
They were sort of the original proselytizers for Bitcoin, and they're now living in,

599
00:38:32,108 --> 00:38:36,328
I think, El Salvador, which has adopted Bitcoin as a form of currency.

600
00:38:37,128 --> 00:38:41,668
When they told me about Bitcoin, I could have bought it for a pound of Bitcoin, which I would

601
00:38:41,668 --> 00:38:46,148
have been bloody wealthier than you if I'd done that. The reason I didn't was they explained that

602
00:38:46,148 --> 00:38:51,928
the way that the public ledger is kept safe is that it takes too much energy to break it.

603
00:38:52,528 --> 00:38:58,628
So each transaction requires 10 minutes of computer processing time globally, by the looks of it,

604
00:38:58,628 --> 00:39:04,308
to actually create an extra Bitcoin. And that means it's too expensive for somebody to try to

605
00:39:04,308 --> 00:39:11,708
break the ledger. That means it's got a huge requirement for energy use. And I believe,

606
00:39:12,308 --> 00:39:16,728
knowing what I know from climate scientists, that at some point we're going to realize we're using

607
00:39:16,728 --> 00:39:21,688
far too much energy on the planet. We've got to cut the energy consumption. And the two easiest

608
00:39:21,688 --> 00:39:26,908
things to cut out to reduce energy consumption are cryptocurrencies and international travel.

609
00:39:27,328 --> 00:39:31,688
Yeah, wait till he finds out about AI. This is a really interesting conclusion to come to,

610
00:39:31,688 --> 00:39:34,828
is that, well, we have to cut out energy use

611
00:39:34,828 --> 00:39:36,768
because it always seems so anti-human to me.

612
00:39:36,828 --> 00:39:37,568
You can go look it up.

613
00:39:37,988 --> 00:39:39,748
The more energy a civilization uses,

614
00:39:39,968 --> 00:39:42,008
the more productive and happy the people are

615
00:39:42,008 --> 00:39:43,428
because as the people are expanding

616
00:39:43,428 --> 00:39:44,188
and doing more things,

617
00:39:44,248 --> 00:39:45,268
they're consuming more energy.

618
00:39:45,528 --> 00:39:46,968
I've said it a million times

619
00:39:46,968 --> 00:39:48,248
and I'm not even joking.

620
00:39:48,868 --> 00:39:50,628
You don't get warp drive transporters,

621
00:39:50,748 --> 00:39:51,908
replicators and holodecks

622
00:39:51,908 --> 00:39:53,208
without using more energy.

623
00:39:53,448 --> 00:39:54,888
You don't get super intelligence

624
00:39:54,888 --> 00:39:56,908
without using more energy, right?

625
00:39:56,928 --> 00:39:58,528
You don't get faster trains and whatnot

626
00:39:58,528 --> 00:39:59,868
without using more energy.

627
00:39:59,868 --> 00:40:06,148
Bitcoin security doesn't come from trust in governments or CEOs or some unspoken social contract.

628
00:40:06,748 --> 00:40:15,128
It's demonstrable, irreversible expenditure of a universally scarce real-world asset, energy.

629
00:40:16,628 --> 00:40:21,228
And the beautiful thing is that security scales with the energy that Bitcoin spends.

630
00:40:22,048 --> 00:40:27,368
A higher hash rate means more energy, which makes 51% of tax exponentially more expensive.

631
00:40:27,368 --> 00:40:37,348
And the network, which is over a trillion dollars in market cap, is protected precisely because attacking it requires outbidding the entire global mining fleet on energy costs.

632
00:40:37,788 --> 00:40:40,708
It simply becomes more economic just to mine Bitcoin.

633
00:40:41,268 --> 00:40:47,308
And that system is something we can all trust to store our value in, not just because somebody says, this is money, bro.

634
00:40:47,648 --> 00:40:48,268
We say so.

635
00:40:48,968 --> 00:40:55,388
And I think what also he's missing is that miners run when Bitcoin's price covers their electricity and hardware costs.

636
00:40:55,648 --> 00:40:56,848
Do you understand that?

637
00:40:57,368 --> 00:41:02,148
Miners only run when Bitcoin price covers electricity and hardware costs.

638
00:41:02,188 --> 00:41:06,188
Sure, they can run on loans for a bit, but the economics are the economics of it.

639
00:41:06,768 --> 00:41:09,928
And the difficulty adjustment self-corrects every two weeks.

640
00:41:10,408 --> 00:41:16,468
If energy becomes too expensive relative to rewards, the hash rate drops until profitability returns.

641
00:41:16,928 --> 00:41:36,572
So the system literally cannot overconsume energy beyond what the market is willing to subsidize via the price And that comes from the value that the market finds in the Bitcoin It literally cannot over because the market will only pay so much It self He also misses that miners are the most flexible location

642
00:41:36,572 --> 00:41:41,472
demand for electricity on Earth, something that AI and data centers still can't achieve.

643
00:41:42,132 --> 00:41:46,072
It seeks out mining. It has to by the cost of it, the nature of the business.

644
00:41:46,072 --> 00:41:52,112
is the cheapest, most stranded or curtailed power, like flared natural gas, excess hydro

645
00:41:52,112 --> 00:41:53,892
or solar somewhere that can't be transmitted.

646
00:41:54,172 --> 00:41:59,432
It monetizes stranded energy that the grid just economically or just physically cannot

647
00:41:59,432 --> 00:42:00,232
transport.

648
00:42:00,912 --> 00:42:04,392
He also, of course, is completely ignorant, I would imagine, to the fact that estimates

649
00:42:04,392 --> 00:42:08,152
now show 52% of Bitcoin mining now uses sustainable resources.

650
00:42:08,532 --> 00:42:11,432
And that's up a lot over the last few years, so it'd be easy to miss that.

651
00:42:11,432 --> 00:42:24,212
And even if you go by some of the more exaggerated estimates, like Cambridge, Bitcoin's energy use is tiny globally, less than, I don't know, 0.6%. I think it's around 0.5% right now.

652
00:42:24,212 --> 00:42:28,232
gold mining, banking data centers, the military,

653
00:42:28,652 --> 00:42:31,312
they all consume comparable or more amounts of energy

654
00:42:31,312 --> 00:42:33,472
and you really cannot verify the security.

655
00:42:33,632 --> 00:42:35,412
Like, look what's happening right now in the strait.

656
00:42:35,692 --> 00:42:36,872
Look what's happening with Iran.

657
00:42:37,652 --> 00:42:39,232
It's a totally different dynamic

658
00:42:39,232 --> 00:42:41,172
and the energy use is key to that.

659
00:42:42,052 --> 00:42:43,412
And the answer to the future

660
00:42:43,412 --> 00:42:45,212
is that we all stop using energy.

661
00:42:45,352 --> 00:42:46,512
That's just not how it works.

662
00:42:47,272 --> 00:42:48,472
So Bitcoin's something for the future.

663
00:42:48,952 --> 00:42:50,532
And I just, I think it's interesting

664
00:42:50,532 --> 00:42:53,672
that he's known about it since it was a pound a coin.

665
00:42:54,212 --> 00:42:55,992
And he's dismissed it the entire time.

666
00:42:56,072 --> 00:42:56,532
Imagine that.

667
00:42:57,072 --> 00:42:58,332
Wow, that is some conviction, though.

668
00:42:58,572 --> 00:43:00,612
Whew, got to be impressed by that.

669
00:43:02,112 --> 00:43:06,672
Well, Morgan Stanley has announced and launched their Bitcoin ETF, MSBT.

670
00:43:07,072 --> 00:43:08,312
It hit the market today.

671
00:43:08,652 --> 00:43:12,172
And it's really going to consider the new ETF king entering the chat.

672
00:43:12,172 --> 00:43:17,012
And it is from the one, the only big Morgan.

673
00:43:17,892 --> 00:43:22,512
The firm taps its almost $6 trillion in advisor-led client assets.

674
00:43:22,512 --> 00:43:25,892
Morgan Stanley has an army of 16,000 financial advisors.

675
00:43:26,212 --> 00:43:30,932
Up till now, they were mainly offering eligible clients access to IBIT or FBTC.

676
00:43:31,272 --> 00:43:38,132
But Morgan Stanley is looking to offer a cheaper homegrown Bitcoin ETF, which will trade under the ticker MSNT.

677
00:43:38,332 --> 00:43:41,372
Let's talk more about this issue with Bloomberg's Isabel Lee.

678
00:43:41,532 --> 00:43:44,352
When does this new Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF begin trading?

679
00:43:44,612 --> 00:43:44,872
Today!

680
00:43:47,512 --> 00:43:51,052
Yeah, and cheaper than IBIT, which is actually pretty aggressive.

681
00:43:51,052 --> 00:43:55,332
Now, Eric Blockhouse of Bloomberg calls it the, quote, big boy launch.

682
00:43:55,672 --> 00:43:59,592
He says it's arguably the biggest Bitcoin launch since the ETFs began at all.

683
00:43:59,632 --> 00:44:01,952
It's the biggest ETF launch since the ETFs began, period.

684
00:44:02,652 --> 00:44:04,012
He says, here is my predictions.

685
00:44:04,592 --> 00:44:10,872
They're going to have $5 billion in assets under management in the first year, and they're going to get $30 million in day one volume.

686
00:44:11,592 --> 00:44:18,612
The global head of ETFs at Morgan Stanley said, quote, we really wanted to show our commitment by having that lower fee.

687
00:44:18,712 --> 00:44:20,952
This is from Allison Wallace, I guess.

688
00:44:21,052 --> 00:44:25,232
The demand, especially from high net worth investors, has been quite high.

689
00:44:25,512 --> 00:44:27,152
We viewed it at a firm level.

690
00:44:27,432 --> 00:44:29,672
This is an asset class that isn't going away.

691
00:44:30,252 --> 00:44:33,312
In other words, they don't want to sell BlackRock or other ETFs anymore.

692
00:44:33,312 --> 00:44:37,492
They went in on the action directly because they have come to the determination

693
00:44:37,492 --> 00:44:41,152
Bitcoin is not going away and there is a market demand for it.

694
00:44:41,592 --> 00:44:45,492
So Eric was expecting about $30 million in day one volume.

695
00:44:45,492 --> 00:44:51,532
Well, as I sat down to record, it's already at $27 million and the market wasn't closed yet.

696
00:44:51,752 --> 00:44:53,952
So it's definitely going to clear Eric's estimate.

697
00:44:54,472 --> 00:44:58,432
It may actually end up closer to $50 million in day one.

698
00:44:58,572 --> 00:45:04,852
That would, if it happens, put it in the top 1% of ETF launches in history.

699
00:45:05,972 --> 00:45:06,832
We'll see.

700
00:45:07,832 --> 00:45:12,012
Now, Mike McGlone of Bloomberg, on the other side of the Bloomberg analyst column,

701
00:45:12,012 --> 00:45:15,472
is saying that Bitcoin is headed to 10K once again.

702
00:45:15,632 --> 00:45:17,392
This is the second time he's made this call.

703
00:45:17,932 --> 00:45:19,572
Maybe he's missed out on the big ETF news.

704
00:45:20,052 --> 00:45:21,452
But he has restated his call.

705
00:45:21,452 --> 00:45:25,532
He says that as long as Bitcoin remains below 75,000,

706
00:45:25,612 --> 00:45:27,652
it's more likely to go to 10,000.

707
00:45:28,112 --> 00:45:31,092
At the heart of his bearish argument is a simple idea.

708
00:45:31,792 --> 00:45:33,912
Bitcoin's rally from 2020 to 2025

709
00:45:33,912 --> 00:45:36,792
was artificially inflated by global liquidity.

710
00:45:37,552 --> 00:45:39,192
He thinks that liquidity is unwinding

711
00:45:39,192 --> 00:45:43,632
and Bitcoin is going to revert to historical numbers like it was back then before liquidity

712
00:45:43,632 --> 00:45:47,732
pumped. Now, this has been a constant debate on the Wolf of Wall Street podcast where

713
00:45:47,732 --> 00:45:52,232
Mike is on there and his co-host, among other things, James Lavish,

714
00:45:52,872 --> 00:45:56,712
finally kind of put Mike McGlone in his place on this $10,000 prediction because

715
00:45:56,712 --> 00:46:01,352
when Mike goes out on Bloomberg, a lot of people do listen to Mike. He's been around for a long

716
00:46:01,352 --> 00:46:04,812
time. And these old timers that have been doing this have got quite a following in the market,

717
00:46:04,812 --> 00:46:07,272
especially by the hard money people.

718
00:46:07,712 --> 00:46:09,572
And so it was interesting to see James Lavish

719
00:46:09,572 --> 00:46:11,572
finally give some pushback to this prediction

720
00:46:11,572 --> 00:46:14,232
that Mike McGlone's been making over and over.

721
00:46:14,732 --> 00:46:17,312
There are people who really truly do believe

722
00:46:17,312 --> 00:46:19,112
and they're in my comments all the time

723
00:46:19,112 --> 00:46:20,992
that Bitcoin's over.

724
00:46:21,352 --> 00:46:24,712
It's the boomer coin of crypto.

725
00:46:25,252 --> 00:46:26,392
It doesn't do anything.

726
00:46:26,572 --> 00:46:27,392
It doesn't have yield.

727
00:46:27,672 --> 00:46:30,212
It's not flashy enough.

728
00:46:30,272 --> 00:46:31,112
It's too expensive.

729
00:46:31,452 --> 00:46:32,992
It's not going to go up 100x

730
00:46:32,992 --> 00:46:34,312
like some of these other things.

731
00:46:34,312 --> 00:46:36,832
and it's just not a lottery ticket.

732
00:46:37,232 --> 00:46:38,492
And I get that, you know,

733
00:46:38,532 --> 00:46:41,832
and that's what a lot of younger investors

734
00:46:41,832 --> 00:46:43,592
are looking for lottery tickets.

735
00:46:43,692 --> 00:46:44,912
We've talked about this before.

736
00:46:45,572 --> 00:46:47,392
And so, and it's not a lottery ticket.

737
00:46:47,732 --> 00:46:52,172
It's an escape valve from the system

738
00:46:52,172 --> 00:46:56,112
that is oppressing you every day with inflation.

739
00:46:56,492 --> 00:46:58,792
It's a way to not get poor slowly.

740
00:46:59,752 --> 00:47:02,972
So, you know, but that's fine.

741
00:47:02,972 --> 00:47:08,592
you have a different opinion. Just want you to be, you know, don't want you to be disingenuous

742
00:47:08,592 --> 00:47:15,352
about it. And that's why Dave is calling you out on it is that that $10,000 level is just, I mean,

743
00:47:15,852 --> 00:47:20,932
come on, we had every single thing happen. And in, like you said, back in 2022, 2023,

744
00:47:20,932 --> 00:47:31,932
and, you know, it, it never got below 16,000 or touched maybe right there. And since that time,

745
00:47:31,932 --> 00:47:39,112
think about just the sheer amount, not just money printing, the sheer amount of expansion

746
00:47:39,112 --> 00:47:49,232
of money supply and debt in the entire system. So unless we have a collapse of all of that

747
00:47:49,232 --> 00:47:55,972
and the liquidity, so you have to add the money and liquidity and the debt together to get the

748
00:47:55,972 --> 00:48:04,872
liquidity, we're not going anywhere near 16,000 in this. And I don't know about gold, but I can't

749
00:48:04,872 --> 00:48:10,892
imagine that going down to a thousand. That might be like saying gold's going to be at what, 500?

750
00:48:11,872 --> 00:48:17,972
It just doesn't make sense. Now, you have a different philosophy and you've made that extremely

751
00:48:17,972 --> 00:48:23,912
clear on here that your philosophy is that Bitcoin is just one of thousands of options in the

752
00:48:23,912 --> 00:48:30,452
cryptocurrency space. And I hear you. I understand why you think that. You know that Bitcoin's

753
00:48:30,452 --> 00:48:35,012
different, but you believe that the perception of it, and please correct me if I'm wrong,

754
00:48:35,452 --> 00:48:40,332
but the perception of it doesn't matter. It's the only thing that matters, is that the people

755
00:48:40,332 --> 00:48:46,072
out there are looking for something to put their money in and the whole crypto space is, you know,

756
00:48:46,072 --> 00:48:52,952
kind of looped together. And part of that is true. And part of that is why that perception has to

757
00:48:52,952 --> 00:48:58,232
gradually change. But you can't get away from the fact that this coin has also become extremely

758
00:48:58,232 --> 00:49:03,832
political. And it's been made to be political. And it's got caught up in so many different nonsense

759
00:49:03,832 --> 00:49:12,692
things. So Dave is right. I agree that we've got to get through this quantum fear. And that's going

760
00:49:12,692 --> 00:49:21,992
to take some time and some clarity. But it's also going to require a genuine explanation

761
00:49:21,992 --> 00:49:30,812
from places like Bloomberg and CNBC and Fox and all the rest of them with genuine, Mike,

762
00:49:30,812 --> 00:49:36,712
that they understand how it's different and why it makes sense to be a store of value.

763
00:49:37,212 --> 00:49:43,732
Because you're going against the major banks who have been fighting it all along,

764
00:49:43,912 --> 00:49:48,972
who now agree. And they're not using it just because it's just something that they can sell

765
00:49:48,972 --> 00:49:55,032
their investors, they're actually building around it. And that's a key development that's happened

766
00:49:55,032 --> 00:50:00,712
over the last two years. And it's taken time and it's going to continue to take time.

767
00:50:01,172 --> 00:50:06,812
On mainstream, it's it, it's over. It's going mainstream. And that means something completely

768
00:50:06,812 --> 00:50:12,052
different. It means that it really is becoming something closer to digital gold. When it gets

769
00:50:12,052 --> 00:50:17,632
there, we don't know, but I have a very high degree of confidence that it will. It's just,

770
00:50:17,632 --> 00:50:22,852
you know, we all have to be truthful. And your truth is a little bit different than mine is.

771
00:50:34,152 --> 00:50:41,092
All right, let's check in on the state of the network. I'm wrapping up at block height 944,232.

772
00:50:41,652 --> 00:50:47,152
Bitcoin's coming in at a cold US dollar, one US dollar. I don't even really know how to say that.

773
00:50:47,152 --> 00:50:48,852
One U.S. dollar? No.

774
00:50:49,432 --> 00:50:52,132
71,130 in U.S. dollars. How about that?

775
00:50:52,672 --> 00:50:54,772
That makes our sats per dollar. This is the number I really like.

776
00:50:54,872 --> 00:50:57,692
1,406 sats to one U.S. dollar.

777
00:50:58,292 --> 00:51:01,072
We're down 43.6%. Up a little bit, actually.

778
00:51:02,072 --> 00:51:03,192
That kind of feels nice, doesn't it?

779
00:51:03,452 --> 00:51:08,612
We're up 4.4% for the last seven days and just 3.7% in the last 24 hours.

780
00:51:08,612 --> 00:51:12,852
And over the last 30 days, Bitcoin's actually up 2.6% in the price.

781
00:51:13,872 --> 00:51:15,852
All right. Not too bad.

782
00:51:15,852 --> 00:51:20,732
Current estimated difficulty change is a downward adjustment of 4.6%.

783
00:51:20,732 --> 00:51:26,052
There's also, again, a decline of nodes on the network.

784
00:51:26,632 --> 00:51:27,492
Got to get out there and node up.

785
00:51:27,612 --> 00:51:28,992
Well, we are doing our part, I suppose.

786
00:51:29,112 --> 00:51:30,312
Our community is doing our part.

787
00:51:30,892 --> 00:51:31,932
I do like to see that.

788
00:51:33,672 --> 00:51:34,192
Let's see.

789
00:51:34,872 --> 00:51:37,812
Other than that, I think, I would say everything's looking pretty standard.

790
00:51:37,812 --> 00:51:40,852
Fee standard, up sometimes, a little bit.

791
00:51:41,512 --> 00:51:42,592
But otherwise, looking pretty standard.

792
00:51:43,252 --> 00:51:45,312
And I'd say, strong as always.

793
00:51:45,852 --> 00:52:02,312
Well, come say hi at LinuxFest Northwest, won't you?

794
00:52:02,312 --> 00:52:08,352
It's going to be April 24th to the 26th at the Bellingham Technical College in the beautiful Pacific Northwest.

795
00:52:08,612 --> 00:52:12,012
We'll be doing a Linux Unplugged live on Sunday, which you can come to.

796
00:52:12,672 --> 00:52:15,832
And of course, you have links to go check out at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

797
00:52:15,852 --> 00:52:18,352
this was episode 99

798
00:52:18,352 --> 00:52:20,852
my goal here was a show

799
00:52:20,852 --> 00:52:21,632
that doesn't get distracted

800
00:52:21,632 --> 00:52:22,492
by the emotions around

801
00:52:22,492 --> 00:52:23,012
what's happening

802
00:52:23,012 --> 00:52:24,172
but focuses on the signal

803
00:52:24,172 --> 00:52:25,612
so that way you can plan

804
00:52:25,612 --> 00:52:26,212
for your friends

805
00:52:26,212 --> 00:52:26,852
your family

806
00:52:26,852 --> 00:52:27,272
yourself

807
00:52:27,272 --> 00:52:27,732
your business

808
00:52:27,732 --> 00:52:28,632
whatever it might be

809
00:52:28,632 --> 00:52:29,552
for your future

810
00:52:29,552 --> 00:52:30,452
so let me know how I did

811
00:52:30,452 --> 00:52:30,912
with the boost

812
00:52:30,912 --> 00:52:31,972
and of course I want to know

813
00:52:31,972 --> 00:52:32,932
if you side with Luke

814
00:52:32,932 --> 00:52:34,612
or with Lynn

815
00:52:34,612 --> 00:52:36,112
and of course any ideas

816
00:52:36,112 --> 00:52:36,732
for how to celebrate

817
00:52:36,732 --> 00:52:37,952
for episode 100

818
00:52:37,952 --> 00:52:39,512
I'm going to leave you now

819
00:52:39,512 --> 00:52:41,232
with a value for value track

820
00:52:41,232 --> 00:52:42,812
this song is a lot of fun

821
00:52:42,812 --> 00:52:45,152
it's 95% of your sats

822
00:52:45,152 --> 00:52:46,512
will go to the artist when you boost.

823
00:52:46,672 --> 00:52:48,772
If you see the album art change,

824
00:52:48,832 --> 00:52:50,592
then you know your podcast app supports it.

825
00:52:50,892 --> 00:52:52,732
Of course, things like Fountain FM and Podverse

826
00:52:52,732 --> 00:52:55,032
and Cast-O-Matic and many others do.

827
00:52:55,472 --> 00:52:56,912
So you can boost while the track is playing

828
00:52:56,912 --> 00:52:59,572
and 95% of the sets automatically go to them.

829
00:52:59,972 --> 00:53:03,372
And this week, it's You Say You're a Warrior, Are Ya?

830
00:53:03,372 --> 00:53:05,272
And it's by Longley.

831
00:53:05,892 --> 00:53:09,132
See you next week for episode 100.

832
00:53:15,152 --> 00:53:23,072
All the way for yourself, let's see, I do

833
00:53:40,792 --> 00:53:43,392
Well, if you dance to the end like a hurricane

834
00:53:43,392 --> 00:53:46,672
Staring at your pain, shadow the pain and grief

835
00:53:46,672 --> 00:53:47,872
Act with me

836
00:53:47,872 --> 00:53:52,232
Still swimming in the deep, crawling

837
00:53:52,232 --> 00:53:55,772
Say what you feel is to be an amenity pouring

838
00:53:55,772 --> 00:54:03,392
Sometimes it feels you can't move on

839
00:54:03,392 --> 00:54:08,812
Sometimes it feels you can't move on

840
00:54:08,812 --> 00:54:11,892
You say you're a warrior, are you?

841
00:54:13,392 --> 00:54:16,512
She'll say you're a warrior, oh yeah

842
00:54:16,512 --> 00:54:29,632
Yeah, on your feet, may I choose from a factory

843
00:54:29,632 --> 00:54:34,772
On Monday morning, a car in a semi-tool

844
00:54:34,772 --> 00:54:38,352
You ain't got time to realign, to redefine

845
00:54:38,352 --> 00:54:40,152
I'll change what you've got in mind

846
00:54:40,152 --> 00:54:42,672
And breathe, are you with me?

847
00:54:43,392 --> 00:54:46,772
Be the one who finally scored

848
00:54:46,772 --> 00:54:49,232
Be the one beat the one beat goal

849
00:54:49,232 --> 00:54:51,852
And breathe how to win it

850
00:54:51,852 --> 00:54:55,852
Look through the constellations

851
00:54:55,852 --> 00:54:57,792
Fire vibrations

852
00:54:57,792 --> 00:55:00,052
And the only way to do it

853
00:55:00,052 --> 00:55:01,072
Be there and to prove it

854
00:55:01,072 --> 00:55:03,192
Be the same around what do I go

855
00:55:03,192 --> 00:55:05,992
Sometimes it fills you there

856
00:55:05,992 --> 00:55:07,172
Move on

857
00:55:07,172 --> 00:55:10,672
Sometimes it fills you there

858
00:55:10,672 --> 00:55:12,792
Move on

859
00:55:12,792 --> 00:55:14,372
You say you're a warrior

860
00:55:14,416 --> 00:55:21,876
Higher, higher, higher, higher, higher, higher.

861
00:55:44,416 --> 00:56:14,396
guitar solo

862
00:56:14,416 --> 00:56:18,416
This is what the seaside sounds like to child 3 o'clock in the morning brothers and sisters

863
00:56:44,416 --> 00:56:57,223
to say you a warrior you you you

864
00:56:57,223 --> 00:57:06,303
you

865
00:57:06,303 --> 00:57:07,223
uh

866
00:57:07,223 --> 00:57:21,703
"'do you say you're a warrior?'

867
00:57:25,303 --> 00:57:34,423
"'do you say you're a warrior?'

868
00:57:34,423 --> 00:57:38,583
You say you're a warrior, ah-yeah, ah-yeah

869
00:57:52,663 --> 00:57:56,663
You say you're a warrior, ah-yeah, ah-yeah

870
00:58:04,423 --> 00:58:05,923
Thank you.