1 00:00:00,017 --> 00:00:02,917 Before we reach the day when we can reduce the debt ceiling, 2 00:00:03,137 --> 00:00:09,637 we may, in spite of our best efforts, see a national debt in excess of a trillion dollars. 3 00:00:09,937 --> 00:00:12,937 Now, this is a figure that's literally beyond our comprehension. 4 00:00:13,737 --> 00:00:17,957 We know now that inflation results from all that deficit spending. 5 00:00:18,717 --> 00:00:22,257 Government has only two ways of getting money other than raising taxes. 6 00:00:22,577 --> 00:00:26,697 It can go into the money market and borrow, competing with its own citizens 7 00:00:26,697 --> 00:00:29,617 and driving up interest rates, which it has done. 8 00:00:30,017 --> 00:00:32,717 Or it can print money and it's done that. 9 00:00:33,197 --> 00:00:35,357 Both methods are inflationary. 10 00:00:36,317 --> 00:00:42,257 We're victims of language. The very word inflation leads us to think of it as just high prices. 11 00:00:42,837 --> 00:00:46,137 Then, of course, we resent the person who puts on the price tags, 12 00:00:46,317 --> 00:00:49,157 forgetting that he or she is also a victim of inflation. 13 00:00:50,277 --> 00:00:55,277 Inflation is not just high prices. It's a reduction in the value of our money. 14 00:00:55,277 --> 00:00:59,857 When the money supply is increased, but the goods and services available for 15 00:00:59,857 --> 00:01:04,037 buying are not, we have too much money chasing too few goods. 16 00:01:04,977 --> 00:01:09,077 Wars are usually accompanied by inflation. Everyone is working or fighting, 17 00:01:09,217 --> 00:01:13,637 but production is of weapons and munitions, not things we can buy and use. 18 00:01:14,637 --> 00:01:17,897 It's time to recognize that we've come to a turning point. 19 00:01:18,177 --> 00:01:21,437 We are threatened with an economic calamity of tremendous proportions, 20 00:01:22,097 --> 00:01:25,757 and the old business-as-usual treatment can't save us. 21 00:01:26,597 --> 00:01:29,037 Together, we must chart a different course. 22 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:40,240 Music. 23 00:01:40,081 --> 00:01:43,241 Welcome to episode 12 of This Week in Bitcoin. My name is Chris, 24 00:01:43,321 --> 00:01:48,021 and yeah, that was the Gipper, 16 days in office talking about inflation. 25 00:01:48,581 --> 00:01:53,641 I've been digging into the archives this week, trying to wrap my head around the macro picture. 26 00:01:54,521 --> 00:01:58,701 Inflation numbers are just mind-boggling, especially if you zoom out by a couple 27 00:01:58,701 --> 00:02:03,381 of years and stop going by the month-to-month print. Say, go back to January of 2021. 28 00:02:04,301 --> 00:02:11,461 Used cars are up 20.9%, chicken 23.9%, Natural gas, 26.9% increase since 2021. 29 00:02:12,281 --> 00:02:20,741 Airfare, 32.7%. Gasoline is up 47.8%. And eggs, 49.3%. And that's just scratching the surface. 30 00:02:21,721 --> 00:02:25,501 You know, I didn't go grab the latest numbers on insurance, but I know those are way up. 31 00:02:26,221 --> 00:02:32,041 What it really means is that I'd say best case scenario, over the last five 32 00:02:32,041 --> 00:02:35,041 years, the purchasing power of U.S. dollars declined by 23%. 33 00:02:35,041 --> 00:02:40,221 So it effectively means uninvested money from 2019 is now worth almost one-fourth less today. 34 00:02:41,741 --> 00:02:45,841 And it's just really, really hard to get a clear signal on where things are 35 00:02:45,841 --> 00:02:49,701 going right now. There's so many theories as to what's going to happen next in the economy. 36 00:02:49,841 --> 00:02:53,241 And you see the market this week really trying to process this out. 37 00:02:53,881 --> 00:02:58,581 Bank stocks are down. People are trying to get out of the banking industry right now. 38 00:02:58,721 --> 00:03:03,521 The Bitcoin price is kind of going sideways despite extremely bullish news. 39 00:03:04,241 --> 00:03:08,281 So you can't really get a clear signal from the current analysis. 40 00:03:08,461 --> 00:03:12,801 So in moments like this, I think it's appropriate at least to look back at history. 41 00:03:13,830 --> 00:03:18,030 And see what insights we can gain from periods of time that are similar. 42 00:03:18,150 --> 00:03:21,510 And I've been looking at the late 70s to early to mid 80s. 43 00:03:22,150 --> 00:03:25,030 And I find comparing our two moments in time very insightful. 44 00:03:25,330 --> 00:03:29,350 Much of what we're dealing with right now, we were dealing with back then. 45 00:03:29,490 --> 00:03:34,130 Here's an example, a news report, a local news report from 1982. 46 00:03:34,970 --> 00:03:38,530 It's no secret that the real estate industry has been one of the big losers 47 00:03:38,530 --> 00:03:44,810 in these recessionary times. Sales of new and old homes are off 50% from the peak in 1978. 48 00:03:45,310 --> 00:03:49,130 The cause for all this? Well, it's well known, high interest rates. 49 00:03:49,430 --> 00:03:53,370 And the blame, realtors say, should be laid on the lap of Congress. 50 00:03:53,650 --> 00:03:57,750 Already 18 days overdue on a budget resolution for next year, 51 00:03:57,870 --> 00:04:02,070 the representatives are locked in a bitter battle over how much more the government 52 00:04:02,070 --> 00:04:04,590 will spend over what it takes in. 53 00:04:04,590 --> 00:04:09,790 The budget deficit must be cut under $100 billion and must be brought into balance 54 00:04:09,790 --> 00:04:11,090 within three to four years. 55 00:04:11,450 --> 00:04:15,910 Max Hill is regional vice president of the National Association of Realtors. 56 00:04:16,090 --> 00:04:20,890 He says to reduce federal spending, Congress needs to cut benefit programs like 57 00:04:20,890 --> 00:04:25,950 Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare, a risky venture he admits in an election year. 58 00:04:26,330 --> 00:04:30,230 The entitlement programs have been built up over a period of 30 to 40 years. 59 00:04:30,230 --> 00:04:35,370 They now amount to over 50% of the budget, and that's a hard one for Congress 60 00:04:35,370 --> 00:04:40,090 to face up to because we're paying the price for 50 years of tax, spend, and elect. 61 00:04:40,710 --> 00:04:45,310 To Hill and other suffering realtors, there are few things more important than 62 00:04:45,310 --> 00:04:46,890 bringing the budget under control. 63 00:04:47,210 --> 00:04:50,970 It's absolutely critical to the economic viability of this country. 64 00:04:51,050 --> 00:04:52,310 It is a serious situation. 65 00:04:53,050 --> 00:04:54,650 Joel Rubin, the Daily News. 66 00:04:56,213 --> 00:04:59,413 You know, I'd have to say one of the big differences right now from back then, 67 00:04:59,473 --> 00:05:02,033 of course, the housing market is in a better position. 68 00:05:02,333 --> 00:05:05,433 And the reasons for that are fascinating social economic reasons. 69 00:05:05,533 --> 00:05:09,613 At least I think I'd be curious to know why you think the housing market isn't doing worse. 70 00:05:10,153 --> 00:05:16,953 But the shift that we were internalizing this week back here in 2024 of the end of May is the U.S. 71 00:05:16,973 --> 00:05:20,753 Economy maybe isn't doing as well as we thought. 72 00:05:21,133 --> 00:05:25,753 You see, they've revised the GDP number downward a little bit. 73 00:05:26,213 --> 00:05:29,913 And this is kind of becoming a trend, both with the employment numbers and the GDP numbers. 74 00:05:30,073 --> 00:05:35,913 They announce a number, and about 20, 30 days later, they revise that number downward. 75 00:05:37,473 --> 00:05:40,813 Additional initial jobless claims also rose slightly last week, 76 00:05:40,933 --> 00:05:46,013 up 3,000. Not a ton, but up a little bit, above what was predicted. 77 00:05:46,513 --> 00:05:50,573 And April pending home sales have hit the lowest level since the start of the pandemic. 78 00:05:51,393 --> 00:05:58,173 And what we now know is a lot of the GDP growth comes from government debt spending. 79 00:05:59,053 --> 00:06:02,773 And we're getting about only 50 cents on the dollar in return. 80 00:06:02,893 --> 00:06:07,353 So what we're spending on debt, we're getting about 50 cents back in GDP growth. 81 00:06:08,793 --> 00:06:12,653 And then another little interesting phenomenon has started. It started about 82 00:06:12,653 --> 00:06:14,993 two weeks ago, I believe, maybe three at this point. 83 00:06:15,873 --> 00:06:23,353 The M2 money supply has started to go positive. The first time since November of 2022. 84 00:06:25,633 --> 00:06:28,953 That means there's more liquidity entering the system. 85 00:06:29,653 --> 00:06:33,493 Now, you just heard the Gipper tell you that that means inflation will go up. 86 00:06:33,753 --> 00:06:35,753 But hold on. The economy is slowing down. 87 00:06:37,293 --> 00:06:40,513 Employment is going, unemployment, I should say, is going up. 88 00:06:40,533 --> 00:06:41,953 Employment is going down. Unemployment 89 00:06:41,953 --> 00:06:45,033 is going up. The M2 money supply is going up at the same time. 90 00:06:46,633 --> 00:06:51,953 And what makes it all worse is it seems inflation is still kind of running hotter than we'd like. 91 00:06:53,819 --> 00:06:56,739 Well, at least how the Fed measures it. I'm becoming more and more suspicious, 92 00:06:56,939 --> 00:06:58,919 however, that the Fed is looking at old data. 93 00:06:59,139 --> 00:07:03,119 And I am no fan of Jamie Dimon, the CEO of J.P. Morgan. 94 00:07:03,579 --> 00:07:07,619 But I do agree with a recent point he made in an interview about inflation models. 95 00:07:07,899 --> 00:07:12,399 So, like I said, I think the fiscal stimulus still is high and it's a global phenomenon. 96 00:07:12,759 --> 00:07:17,499 Since COVID, a lot of money was spent. There was a lot of QE and those things 97 00:07:17,499 --> 00:07:19,099 are still kind of surging through the system. 98 00:07:19,819 --> 00:07:24,379 Models, in my view, don't pick up fat tails. I would put the amount of spending as a fat tail. 99 00:07:24,839 --> 00:07:27,379 So, you know, you can build a model that tells you what, you know, 100 00:07:27,379 --> 00:07:30,339 with some actors it might happen if rates go up or down 100 basis points, 101 00:07:30,459 --> 00:07:32,659 but not they go up or down 500 basis points. 102 00:07:33,119 --> 00:07:37,739 And you heard Reagan say when the government prints, it causes inflation to 103 00:07:37,739 --> 00:07:41,279 go up because you're literally increasing the money supply. And now we're printing again. 104 00:07:41,599 --> 00:07:45,819 We just started printing again. And we had, during the pandemic, 105 00:07:45,919 --> 00:07:46,899 printed like never before. 106 00:07:47,039 --> 00:07:51,039 And that money, which is Jamie Dimon's point, it's still in the system. 107 00:07:51,539 --> 00:07:54,879 There's still more money than they know what to do with surging through the 108 00:07:54,879 --> 00:07:57,959 system. They need something to do with all that money, and that is inflationary. 109 00:07:59,499 --> 00:08:03,719 And then on top of all of that, there's just major macro trends that are also 110 00:08:03,719 --> 00:08:05,599 long-term going to be inflationary. 111 00:08:05,679 --> 00:08:09,939 Particularly on defense, defend expenditure, the remilitarization. 112 00:08:09,939 --> 00:08:13,319 We're seeing that in your country. We're seeing that across the world. 113 00:08:13,479 --> 00:08:16,299 You know, it's not just that's remilitarization, the restructure of trade. 114 00:08:16,579 --> 00:08:19,319 There's some of that. We don't know exactly how much yet that's going to be 115 00:08:19,319 --> 00:08:22,259 inflationary. The green economy is going to be inflationary. 116 00:08:22,619 --> 00:08:24,359 Fiscal spending is inflationary. 117 00:08:25,359 --> 00:08:28,119 Commodity prices, if you look at commodities in oil, copper, 118 00:08:28,259 --> 00:08:31,279 there's a chance of being short supply down the couple of years from now. 119 00:08:31,379 --> 00:08:34,999 So there are a lot of things out there which can drive inflation. But again, not today. 120 00:08:35,519 --> 00:08:38,739 You know, I'm talking about 12 months, 24 months from now. Yeah, 121 00:08:38,819 --> 00:08:41,839 on-shoring. That's a major inflationary action. 122 00:08:43,099 --> 00:08:45,019 You see, back in the 70s. 123 00:08:46,653 --> 00:08:52,733 During the late 70s, we had the gas crisis where there was a gas shortage. 124 00:08:53,433 --> 00:08:54,693 We had inflation ripping. 125 00:08:55,793 --> 00:08:58,053 We had a lot of the similar ingredients there. 126 00:08:59,393 --> 00:09:04,613 So what they inevitably had was stagflation back in the day. They got stagflation. 127 00:09:04,733 --> 00:09:07,853 And now stagflation becomes the concern. 128 00:09:08,093 --> 00:09:13,793 It becomes that we're back in a stagflationary period. And it kind of was mentioned and brought up. 129 00:09:13,853 --> 00:09:16,113 I think I may have mentioned it on the show, like the start of the year. 130 00:09:16,113 --> 00:09:17,373 But then didn't say much. 131 00:09:18,133 --> 00:09:21,853 Then, the beginning of May, things started changing. 132 00:09:25,633 --> 00:09:29,033 On May 1st, the rumblings of stagflation began. 133 00:09:29,433 --> 00:09:34,293 That was the day we saw declines in the ISM manufacturing and new orders component 134 00:09:34,293 --> 00:09:36,893 coinciding with a jump in prices paid. 135 00:09:37,673 --> 00:09:41,233 Stagflation is the very undesirable situation where employment and demand are 136 00:09:41,233 --> 00:09:43,193 declining at the same time inflation. 137 00:09:50,813 --> 00:09:55,093 Now, Volcker back in the 80s could raise rates. In fact, he raised it to a peak 138 00:09:55,093 --> 00:09:59,373 of 20% in 1981, in June of 1981. Can you imagine? 139 00:10:00,373 --> 00:10:04,093 That really was painful. It'd be impossible today, though, because the interest 140 00:10:04,093 --> 00:10:05,793 on the debt would be just astronomical. 141 00:10:07,494 --> 00:10:10,614 So we pretend like some of these fundamentals don't matter. 142 00:10:10,754 --> 00:10:14,454 Like maybe this time it's going to be different because employment's still pretty 143 00:10:14,454 --> 00:10:18,174 good. Or this time it's going to be different because, I don't know, AI. 144 00:10:18,494 --> 00:10:22,454 We pretend like maybe it'll be different this time. But I find it so funny because 145 00:10:22,454 --> 00:10:27,694 we never do that when we look retrospectively, when we look at the past cycles. 146 00:10:28,034 --> 00:10:32,074 So as I've been going back in time and looking at what happened in the late 147 00:10:32,074 --> 00:10:37,394 70s, early to mid 80s, when economists talk about it now, it's just very matter of fact. 148 00:10:37,494 --> 00:10:41,794 The politics is taken out of it. The hedging, oh, it might be OK, 149 00:10:42,014 --> 00:10:44,874 is completely taken out of it. And it's just plain and simple. 150 00:10:44,934 --> 00:10:51,234 Here's an example from the Philadelphia Fed talking about this 70s and 80s era of time. 151 00:10:51,574 --> 00:10:56,954 In the 1970s, monetary policy was too loose. The money supply was growing faster 152 00:10:56,954 --> 00:10:58,914 than the economy, and that led to inflation. 153 00:10:59,614 --> 00:11:03,934 People started to expect inflation, and they built this expectation into their 154 00:11:03,934 --> 00:11:07,314 economic decisions. That led to even more inflation. 155 00:11:07,594 --> 00:11:11,974 High inflation, plus other shocks to the economy, like a quadrupling of oil 156 00:11:11,974 --> 00:11:15,634 prices, led to a bad recession with periods of high unemployment. 157 00:11:16,114 --> 00:11:18,194 In other words, stagflation. 158 00:11:18,714 --> 00:11:23,474 Just matter of fact, right? They would, if you asked any of the federal banks 159 00:11:23,474 --> 00:11:26,954 today, they wouldn't analyze the current situation like that. 160 00:11:27,154 --> 00:11:31,754 But when you look back 40 years, well, it's just obviously the government printed. 161 00:11:31,754 --> 00:11:36,534 We all began to hedge because we knew about inflation. That led to even more inflation. 162 00:11:37,494 --> 00:11:41,354 It's obvious, right? I just think that's so funny. And you see, 163 00:11:41,394 --> 00:11:47,914 back then, there were broader deflationary macro trends that were going to play out over the 80s, right? 164 00:11:47,954 --> 00:11:52,854 We had just a massive deflationary boom from technology, email, 165 00:11:53,014 --> 00:12:00,714 and just typing and then printing. We had globalization of manufacturing, massive savings there. 166 00:12:00,994 --> 00:12:05,374 Our sweet new deal with OPEC was really starting to settle in. 167 00:12:06,334 --> 00:12:10,134 These things were all deflationary and there's more at the macro level. 168 00:12:11,833 --> 00:12:17,033 Today, we have the opposite. We have inflationary trends at the macro level. 169 00:12:17,293 --> 00:12:19,533 The tech boom productivity is mostly realized. 170 00:12:19,813 --> 00:12:22,853 I mean, that's why you see the intense hopes pinned on AI. 171 00:12:23,413 --> 00:12:25,433 It's because they need, they just need that productivity. 172 00:12:26,253 --> 00:12:30,713 They need that deflationary productivity so bad. And they hope AI can do it 173 00:12:30,713 --> 00:12:31,853 by laying you off, most likely. 174 00:12:33,013 --> 00:12:36,733 But it's a long shot. It's a long shot. It's a long shot. 175 00:12:38,293 --> 00:12:41,733 We're also trying to onshore as much manufacturing as we can. Very inflationary. 176 00:12:42,553 --> 00:12:46,393 To say nothing about Germany's economy slowing, link in the show notes, 177 00:12:46,533 --> 00:12:49,073 along with most of the EU, which will have impacts on everyone. 178 00:12:50,493 --> 00:12:54,593 And the other tricky side of this, which also suggests stagflation, 179 00:12:55,053 --> 00:12:58,153 is if we got lucky and we saw the economy grow, 180 00:13:00,033 --> 00:13:03,813 there would be more oil demand and the price of oil would go up, 181 00:13:04,613 --> 00:13:07,373 which would drive the cost of energy and thus goods up. 182 00:13:08,133 --> 00:13:11,573 And then to top it all off, we're constantly flirting with more conflict, 183 00:13:11,833 --> 00:13:17,693 like with China, which was one of our largest deflationary forces in the last 40 years. 184 00:13:19,353 --> 00:13:21,773 So what could push us over the top to stagflation, you ask? Well, 185 00:13:21,773 --> 00:13:26,333 conflict with China, or any kind of sharp increase in government spending would 186 00:13:26,333 --> 00:13:28,913 do it. Oil prices surging a bit would do it. 187 00:13:29,993 --> 00:13:33,973 Money supply expanding while the real economy shrinks, that would do it. 188 00:13:36,513 --> 00:13:40,593 So it seems more and more probable. It's not guaranteed, but it's more and more 189 00:13:40,593 --> 00:13:45,893 probable, especially if something like the Fed lowers interest rates because of the election. 190 00:13:46,973 --> 00:13:50,373 One of the things you go back and you see is that there are times when the Fed 191 00:13:50,373 --> 00:13:53,133 has acted politically and it has been bad for long-term policy, 192 00:13:53,253 --> 00:13:57,613 and there has been times when the Fed went against the current administration 193 00:13:57,613 --> 00:14:01,153 and it was really the best decision for long-term policy. 194 00:14:02,133 --> 00:14:05,573 So we're going to see, does the Fed act political and lower rates for the election? 195 00:14:05,693 --> 00:14:07,953 Because they really shouldn't lower rates yet. Let's be real. 196 00:14:08,713 --> 00:14:12,313 So here's my question to you. Say we hit stagflation in the West. 197 00:14:13,373 --> 00:14:16,333 How does that impact the price of Bitcoin for the next couple of years? 198 00:14:16,413 --> 00:14:21,193 Boost it and tell me, do you think Bitcoin still goes up in a stagflation environment? 199 00:14:23,933 --> 00:14:28,433 I'd like to know what you think. I think the banks want in on crypto because 200 00:14:28,433 --> 00:14:33,733 part of this is all in their factory. The BlackRock Bitcoin ETF just became 201 00:14:33,733 --> 00:14:36,873 the fastest ETF to reach $20 billion. 202 00:14:40,473 --> 00:14:43,653 Commenting on BlackRock's success, Goldman Sachs representative said the Bitcoin 203 00:14:43,653 --> 00:14:47,073 ETF approval was a, quote, big psychological turning point. 204 00:14:47,613 --> 00:14:50,753 And it has been a, quote, astonishing success. 205 00:14:51,953 --> 00:14:56,433 And I think the banks want more. I think the banks need more. 206 00:14:59,212 --> 00:15:06,092 I think they need in on this sweet, sweet money. And so we got an ETH ETF approval. 207 00:15:12,052 --> 00:15:16,552 You want to get to the SEC has made a decision on spot either ETFs. 208 00:15:16,552 --> 00:15:17,572 Contessa Brewers got the details. 209 00:15:17,692 --> 00:15:21,052 And it's been approved, Melissa. Melissa, that's the big news coming in, 210 00:15:21,092 --> 00:15:26,492 that these ETFs based on the price of Ether have been approved for the Nasdaq, 211 00:15:26,552 --> 00:15:29,312 the CBOE and the New York Stock Exchange, 212 00:15:30,112 --> 00:15:34,232 potentially paving the way for these ETFs to be listed later this year. 213 00:15:34,312 --> 00:15:39,892 Remember earlier this week, the the agencies themselves had largely predicted, 214 00:15:40,032 --> 00:15:44,932 as had many of the experts on our air, that this would be denied based on some 215 00:15:44,932 --> 00:15:48,812 of the commentary we had heard around the Bitcoin ETFs being approved. 216 00:15:48,812 --> 00:15:54,492 But in fact, you've got VanEck, ARK Investments, BlackRock hoping to launch 217 00:15:54,492 --> 00:15:57,412 these ETFs tied to the second largest cryptocurrency. 218 00:15:57,772 --> 00:16:01,652 You're seeing Ether up about a percent and a half. 219 00:16:01,732 --> 00:16:06,012 Bitcoin, by comparison, took a little bit of a dip there. 220 00:16:06,232 --> 00:16:07,672 You know, there's not as much excitement 221 00:16:07,672 --> 00:16:12,992 about Ether because there's not a supply cap and it is a security. 222 00:16:13,832 --> 00:16:17,232 So, I mean, it's kind of it's maybe, you know, they're going to be able to claim 223 00:16:17,232 --> 00:16:20,412 that it's sufficiently decentralized, which has been my theory all along. 224 00:16:20,492 --> 00:16:22,632 I've never really been full sailor on this. 225 00:16:23,912 --> 00:16:28,892 I don't really get as worked up about it because there are some side benefits 226 00:16:28,892 --> 00:16:32,072 from ETH getting this approval, which I'll touch on here for a moment. 227 00:16:32,072 --> 00:16:33,292 So you know what I'm talking about. 228 00:16:33,532 --> 00:16:39,532 Just like three weeks before this big 180 on the approval of the ETF, 229 00:16:39,752 --> 00:16:44,352 just like a couple of weeks, three weeks or so, Saylor had an event where he 230 00:16:44,352 --> 00:16:48,532 went like so hard on the fact that the ETH ETF would never get approved. 231 00:16:48,652 --> 00:16:51,032 Like he was so clearly convinced he went hard. 232 00:16:51,212 --> 00:16:54,652 When Ethereum is not going to be approved sometime this summer, 233 00:16:54,712 --> 00:16:59,432 it'll be very clear to everyone that Ethereum is deemed a crypto asset security, not a commodity. 234 00:16:59,432 --> 00:17:05,932 After that, you're going to see that Ethereum, BNB, Solana, Ripple, 235 00:17:06,252 --> 00:17:12,632 Cardano, everything down the stack is just a crypto asset security unregistered. 236 00:17:12,852 --> 00:17:16,312 None of them will ever be wrapped by a spot ETF. 237 00:17:16,772 --> 00:17:20,672 None of them will be accepted by Wall Street. None of them will be accepted 238 00:17:20,672 --> 00:17:23,772 by mainstream institutional investors as crypto assets. 239 00:17:24,652 --> 00:17:32,912 This is the one universal consensus accepted institutional grade crypto asset in the world. 240 00:17:33,072 --> 00:17:36,352 The one, the only, the others will never get approved, he said. 241 00:17:37,212 --> 00:17:42,652 But I guess to be fair at the time, that's what everybody kind of thought. 242 00:17:42,752 --> 00:17:45,732 And I wouldn't be surprised if Saylor had a little insight there. 243 00:17:45,792 --> 00:17:48,572 You know, he noticed, he said, by this summer, perhaps he knew about the legal 244 00:17:48,572 --> 00:17:49,592 cases that were in works. 245 00:17:49,872 --> 00:17:53,152 Remember, a Wells notice had been served a consensus, I believe, 246 00:17:53,312 --> 00:17:55,132 which is one of the groups behind Ethereum. 247 00:17:56,737 --> 00:18:01,117 So Saylor has now updated his thinking. So I thought, let's play that for you. 248 00:18:01,177 --> 00:18:05,317 And then I'll share with you why I think this isn't necessarily bad for Bitcoin. 249 00:18:05,817 --> 00:18:08,697 I don't think it's also great either. You know, so here's what I think. 250 00:18:08,737 --> 00:18:13,657 I think two weeks before, the world looked like Bitcoin was going to be the 251 00:18:13,657 --> 00:18:17,637 only asset securitized and offered as a spot ETF. 252 00:18:18,257 --> 00:18:23,897 This is his interview with Peter from What Bitcoin Did. by the Wall Street establishment, 253 00:18:24,137 --> 00:18:27,917 and it was going to spread as the one legitimate crypto asset. 254 00:18:28,757 --> 00:18:35,797 I think right now, the best expectation is the crypto asset class will be legitimized, 255 00:18:35,797 --> 00:18:38,497 supported by both parties. There's an industry. 256 00:18:38,977 --> 00:18:44,457 Crypto is an asset class. There's an entire higher range of use cases, 257 00:18:44,737 --> 00:18:50,317 24-7 digital trading, digital art, NFTs, tokens, 258 00:18:50,817 --> 00:18:54,717 decentralized this, functionality, DeFi. 259 00:18:55,077 --> 00:19:00,037 There's a lot of things that will be considered in a more open light. 260 00:19:00,717 --> 00:19:05,477 And Bitcoin will be the leader of the crypto asset class. 261 00:19:06,037 --> 00:19:09,837 And if you look at it and say, well, is this good for Bitcoin or not? 262 00:19:10,357 --> 00:19:13,777 Yeah, I think it's good for Bitcoin. I think, in fact, it may be better for 263 00:19:13,777 --> 00:19:16,857 Bitcoin because I think that we are politically much more powerful. 264 00:19:17,797 --> 00:19:20,577 You know, supported by the entire crypto industry. 265 00:19:21,037 --> 00:19:25,097 This is clearly the thing. This is something that I've said before on the air, 266 00:19:25,137 --> 00:19:29,477 not on this show, but on the Bitcoin Dad Pod, is the crypto industry as a whole 267 00:19:29,477 --> 00:19:32,257 has raised a lot of money to lobby Congress, 268 00:19:32,457 --> 00:19:37,277 to turn people that were viciously against crypto into pro-crypto advocates. 269 00:19:38,117 --> 00:19:43,657 Bitcoin doesn't have a marketing department. It doesn't have VCs that can hire people. 270 00:19:43,897 --> 00:19:47,977 It can't really just put together an organization that will go lobby Congress. 271 00:19:48,117 --> 00:19:52,977 There's nobody in the Bitcoin boardroom that's supervising the strategy for 272 00:19:52,977 --> 00:19:54,017 interfacing with governments. 273 00:19:55,657 --> 00:20:02,197 You need these altcoins that have that kind of infrastructure that can create lobbying groups. 274 00:20:04,077 --> 00:20:09,717 They were always going to have a louder voice they also absorb a lot of the falling rocks, 275 00:20:11,457 --> 00:20:18,457 so perhaps you know uh perhaps that is good for bitcoin in that it means we 276 00:20:18,457 --> 00:20:23,637 have a voice we have representation i don't love the way the system works but 277 00:20:23,637 --> 00:20:27,577 i don't see how bitcoin could have ever had say like the fit 21 stuff in the house. 278 00:20:29,487 --> 00:20:32,027 How could that, which we're going to get to the legislation stuff in a moment, 279 00:20:32,107 --> 00:20:34,307 but how could that have happened without the crypto lobbying industry? 280 00:20:34,427 --> 00:20:35,347 It just simply wouldn't have. 281 00:20:35,807 --> 00:20:39,347 Unless somehow Bitcoin over time got big enough where the mining industry, 282 00:20:39,607 --> 00:20:43,627 the mining sector could have maybe gotten some lobbying groups together, 283 00:20:43,727 --> 00:20:48,247 but we wouldn't be here right now. I don't think it would be part of this current election cycle. 284 00:20:48,747 --> 00:20:53,507 And we almost saw the current administration successfully choke out the industry. 285 00:20:54,447 --> 00:20:58,847 Industry. So it got really close. I don't think we had the time to spare. 286 00:20:59,087 --> 00:21:02,227 Right. They obviously have a lot of political power, a lot of users, 287 00:21:02,407 --> 00:21:06,887 and they serve as another line of defense for Bitcoin. 288 00:21:07,147 --> 00:21:11,847 So I think instead of someone saying, well, there's one crypto asset, 289 00:21:11,987 --> 00:21:14,167 maybe I'll allocate 1% of my money to it. 290 00:21:14,367 --> 00:21:18,667 I think mainstream investors might say, oh, there's a crypto asset class now, 291 00:21:18,807 --> 00:21:23,247 and maybe we'll allocate 5% or 10% of the crypto asset class, 292 00:21:23,247 --> 00:21:26,547 us but bitcoin will be 60 or 70 of that so i 293 00:21:26,547 --> 00:21:29,887 actually think it could accelerate institutional adoption we're 294 00:21:29,887 --> 00:21:32,927 back to indexing i disagree here um i 295 00:21:32,927 --> 00:21:36,147 don't know i don't know if i necessarily see i think if the 296 00:21:36,147 --> 00:21:40,247 only the bitcoin etf had been approved then 100 of the revenue would have gone 297 00:21:40,247 --> 00:21:43,827 into those etfs now you know i would bet 20 something like that splits off to 298 00:21:43,827 --> 00:21:49,067 these other ones the eth ones and then other after that much like if there were 299 00:21:49,067 --> 00:21:51,867 no other alternative coins perhaps all of that liquidity would go into Bitcoin. 300 00:21:51,987 --> 00:21:53,527 But then again, perhaps people wouldn't be in the market. 301 00:21:54,367 --> 00:21:57,947 It's funny to see it play out now on the Wall Street side, like it's going to 302 00:21:57,947 --> 00:21:59,927 play out on the crypto side. 303 00:22:01,147 --> 00:22:05,187 Just, I guess I'm not, I guess I am kind of, I'm not shocked, 304 00:22:05,267 --> 00:22:07,027 but I guess I am still sort of surprised. 305 00:22:07,607 --> 00:22:10,567 We don't have dates yet of when these are going to go live. They're refiling. 306 00:22:10,627 --> 00:22:13,227 And it does seem like, and I think this really sucks. 307 00:22:14,087 --> 00:22:17,247 It does seem like staking is out. 308 00:22:18,347 --> 00:22:25,767 So if you buy ETH through an ETF, then you're leaving like 5% on the table for staking plus fees. 309 00:22:27,047 --> 00:22:29,327 And you're also buying something that has an unlimited cap. 310 00:22:30,727 --> 00:22:31,727 Not a great product. 311 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:43,440 Music. 312 00:22:33,587 --> 00:22:35,647 All right, let's talk about the state of crypto legislation. 313 00:22:42,727 --> 00:22:46,367 Welcome back to Swapbox. The first ever digital assets legislation is passed 314 00:22:46,367 --> 00:22:49,687 in the House of Representatives, but the future of the bill remaining unclear 315 00:22:49,687 --> 00:22:52,387 as the Senate has yet to come up with companion legislation. 316 00:22:52,787 --> 00:22:57,307 There's no timing on when the Senate needs to act. Join us right now. Now that right there. 317 00:22:59,312 --> 00:23:02,952 It's a critical point. So we've gotten the House on board, but the Senate doesn't 318 00:23:02,952 --> 00:23:06,332 have a timeline yet. Now, Senator Lummis is over there. 319 00:23:06,432 --> 00:23:09,612 She is. And there are others that are working on this. So there are people in 320 00:23:09,612 --> 00:23:15,072 the Senate that have this on their radar, but they don't necessarily have a deadline of any kind. 321 00:23:15,812 --> 00:23:20,152 And I wouldn't be too shocked if they got enough. 322 00:23:20,632 --> 00:23:26,512 They got what they needed. Right. They made the impact with the voters they wanted to reach. 323 00:23:27,292 --> 00:23:31,332 And the rest can all be done with just small nods and virtue signals for the 324 00:23:31,332 --> 00:23:32,092 rest of the campaigning. 325 00:23:33,092 --> 00:23:36,072 You know, you don't really have to have any more actual legislation pass. 326 00:23:36,472 --> 00:23:40,772 And after the election, you can actually pass the legislation and perhaps retract 327 00:23:40,772 --> 00:23:42,412 some of your promises or something like that. 328 00:23:42,472 --> 00:23:48,092 You know, you can be a little more aggressive with stuff than you may be where 329 00:23:48,092 --> 00:23:51,652 you'd be a little more generous before the election. That makes sense. 330 00:23:52,672 --> 00:23:55,932 That's my current thesis for what's going to happen. Like, we're going to have 331 00:23:55,932 --> 00:23:58,872 a more positive outlook from both Democrats and Republicans, 332 00:23:59,112 --> 00:24:03,072 a more positive approach and more positive language and slight, 333 00:24:03,212 --> 00:24:04,952 you know, nods and outreaches. 334 00:24:05,592 --> 00:24:09,552 But I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see the Senate legislation go through. 335 00:24:09,792 --> 00:24:13,552 And I wouldn't be shocked if we don't see something end up on Biden's desk. 336 00:24:15,092 --> 00:24:19,432 However, if they were clever, they would take the Loomis bill or the other one 337 00:24:19,432 --> 00:24:22,012 that's being worked on. I guess there's two in the Senate, my understanding. standing. 338 00:24:22,612 --> 00:24:25,412 Get those things whipped into shape, sync them up with the House bills, 339 00:24:25,612 --> 00:24:30,492 get that on Biden's desk to sign so he could truly send a signal like President Trump has been. 340 00:24:31,472 --> 00:24:35,912 Biden's campaign did announce that, I think it might have been the White House 341 00:24:35,912 --> 00:24:40,052 actually announced, that a presidential delegation is going to El Salvador to 342 00:24:40,052 --> 00:24:43,952 attend McKellie's inauguration, because he won the election again. 343 00:24:44,812 --> 00:24:46,352 That to me is pretty wild. 344 00:24:47,252 --> 00:24:54,492 Joe Biden himself isn't going, But the White House is sending a delegation to 345 00:24:54,492 --> 00:24:56,332 go to McKellie's inauguration, a delegation. 346 00:24:58,403 --> 00:25:04,443 They went from like co-signing letters concerned about the McKellie administration 347 00:25:04,443 --> 00:25:08,103 and their crime enforcement policies and their economic policies. 348 00:25:08,483 --> 00:25:11,263 Right. This is just like two years ago or a year ago they did this. 349 00:25:12,243 --> 00:25:15,043 To now they're sending a delegation to his party. 350 00:25:17,063 --> 00:25:21,443 Also, multiple reports today, as I record, that the Biden campaign has ramped 351 00:25:21,443 --> 00:25:29,603 up crypto industry, crypto industry, whatever that means. I wish that headline 352 00:25:29,603 --> 00:25:31,443 said Bitcoin mining industry. 353 00:25:31,663 --> 00:25:35,403 That's what I'd love to see. Anyways, the report, this one's from the block, 354 00:25:35,563 --> 00:25:38,363 but there's been several, say that the administration's campaign, 355 00:25:38,723 --> 00:25:44,683 the people that are in charge of their re-election stuff, are engaging in outreach 356 00:25:44,683 --> 00:25:49,543 to various crypto industry players in, quote, a surprising tone shift. 357 00:25:50,583 --> 00:25:55,843 It's kind of more of the same. The difference here being that they're actually actively reaching out. 358 00:25:57,623 --> 00:26:01,343 All it says here is the election campaign has begun reaching out to cryptocurrency 359 00:26:01,343 --> 00:26:06,323 industry players seeking, quote, guidance on the crypto community and crypto policy moving forward. 360 00:26:06,883 --> 00:26:10,223 Sources with direct knowledge on the matter told the block. The outreach marks 361 00:26:10,223 --> 00:26:13,543 a significant, quote, shift from the Biden's previous arm's length dealings 362 00:26:13,543 --> 00:26:16,703 with the industry, according to several sources. You kind of get the idea. 363 00:26:17,763 --> 00:26:21,583 I think they could do these kinds of things and the Senate wouldn't have to do anything. 364 00:26:21,643 --> 00:26:25,323 And this voting block would be happy now. You know, you said Bitcoin, 365 00:26:25,623 --> 00:26:30,483 you mentioned Ross, you're going to see, you know, the Biden White House delegation 366 00:26:30,483 --> 00:26:31,483 is going to see McKellie. 367 00:26:32,583 --> 00:26:36,483 I think a lot of the people you're trying to reach have been reached now. 368 00:26:37,343 --> 00:26:40,763 You could just sit back and do absolutely crap, nothing. And why not? 369 00:26:42,223 --> 00:26:45,323 I think the real tell is if the Senate gets their crap together, 370 00:26:45,583 --> 00:26:49,883 gets that bill on Biden's desk and he signs it. That's the real tell about the shift. 371 00:26:50,303 --> 00:26:54,663 Shift. And until we see that, gotta remain kind of skeptical. 372 00:26:55,823 --> 00:27:01,383 Last week, I asked you, why do you think the average age of cars is higher than it's ever been? 373 00:27:01,563 --> 00:27:05,163 And you're seeing that vehicles are now at an all-time high in terms of the 374 00:27:05,163 --> 00:27:09,623 average age, 12.6 years according to S&P Global Mobility. 375 00:27:09,763 --> 00:27:11,923 And again, they've never been higher than this. 376 00:27:12,743 --> 00:27:16,223 All right, well, when we get back, I'm going to read your boost on why you think 377 00:27:16,223 --> 00:27:20,763 the average age of cars is higher than it's ever been, plus some project updates, 378 00:27:20,883 --> 00:27:22,423 some resources, and a lot more. 379 00:27:22,583 --> 00:27:25,643 So first, I want to thank the show's sponsor, Podhome.com. 380 00:27:27,219 --> 00:27:31,219 Podcasting 2.0 hosting platform of choice. There's so many great features on 381 00:27:31,219 --> 00:27:35,659 Podcasting 2.0 that can make your podcast more competitive and stand above the 382 00:27:35,659 --> 00:27:39,099 noise floor of all the other podcasts out there with transcriptions, 383 00:27:39,099 --> 00:27:41,199 chapters, and Podhome AI. 384 00:27:41,299 --> 00:27:45,119 Go try Podhome, and you'll have unlimited shows and episodes. 385 00:27:45,279 --> 00:27:52,299 It's podhome.fm, promo code TWIP, and you get the first three months for free. That's promo code TWIP. 386 00:27:52,999 --> 00:27:56,499 Unlimited shows and episodes powered by unlimited Podhome AI. 387 00:27:57,219 --> 00:28:03,159 Go check out Podhome.fm, promo code TWIB. And a big thank you to Podhome for 388 00:28:03,159 --> 00:28:04,739 sponsoring this week in Bitcoin. 389 00:28:04,879 --> 00:28:08,999 It is how I host the show, and I absolutely co-sign it. 390 00:28:09,039 --> 00:28:12,159 It's a great platform, and burying the team over there work extremely, 391 00:28:12,219 --> 00:28:13,199 really, extremely hard. 392 00:28:13,899 --> 00:28:16,719 Podhome.fm, go make your podcast more competitive. 393 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:23,359 All right. We got some boosts this week, and our first one comes from Adversaries. 394 00:28:23,499 --> 00:28:26,319 You know, it's my, at least that's how I pronounce it. 395 00:28:26,319 --> 00:28:29,319 Adversary 17 with 50 000 396 00:28:29,319 --> 00:28:34,479 sats ah the baller 397 00:28:34,479 --> 00:28:37,479 spot is on discount and that's a great get 50 000 sats 398 00:28:37,479 --> 00:28:42,499 for the baller spot adversary 17 rights keep keep these coming chris i'm just 399 00:28:42,499 --> 00:28:46,739 curious though has this show taken the place of unfilter i'm not opposed either 400 00:28:46,739 --> 00:28:51,479 way i know both this and the other are a lot of work to create you know that's 401 00:28:51,479 --> 00:28:55,099 a great question uh because i kind of started them both at the same time that 402 00:28:55,099 --> 00:28:57,299 obviously I've kept the pedal down on this week in Bitcoin. 403 00:28:58,279 --> 00:29:03,499 The unfilter show is probably going to be an outlet that I will use from time 404 00:29:03,499 --> 00:29:06,639 to time when something's going on in the world that I don't think a lot of people 405 00:29:06,639 --> 00:29:07,859 have wrapped their head around quite right. 406 00:29:08,419 --> 00:29:11,899 But if there's a lot of people out there covering this stuff and they're doing 407 00:29:11,899 --> 00:29:16,539 a great job, I don't really feel like I necessarily need to chime in. But also... 408 00:29:18,433 --> 00:29:23,933 As I've gotten a deeper understanding of macroeconomics and how this all works, 409 00:29:24,093 --> 00:29:27,713 I've begun to understand that it all really comes back to the money. 410 00:29:27,813 --> 00:29:33,613 Not to be cliche, but so much of what I cover in Unfilter actually comes back 411 00:29:33,613 --> 00:29:35,173 down to macroeconomics. 412 00:29:35,253 --> 00:29:39,733 It's this wild, wild thing where all these things that you think are conspiracies 413 00:29:39,733 --> 00:29:42,813 and all these evil things really comes down to the money. 414 00:29:42,853 --> 00:29:45,793 When you understand the money, you understand the incentives. rentives. 415 00:29:46,793 --> 00:29:51,553 And so this is where my intention's at right now. But I imagine with the election 416 00:29:51,553 --> 00:29:54,493 and all of that, there's going to have to be an event or two where I get fired 417 00:29:54,493 --> 00:29:57,313 up and I want to talk about it. So that'll be over at unfiltered.show. 418 00:29:57,933 --> 00:30:02,693 Gene Bean comes in with 5,000 sats. There's coffee in that nebula. 419 00:30:03,733 --> 00:30:07,053 Using cast-o-matic, Gene writes, great explanation of how all the news comes 420 00:30:07,053 --> 00:30:08,093 together to drive price. 421 00:30:08,273 --> 00:30:11,133 I think I'll stick to listening here to understand things. Regarding cars, 422 00:30:11,333 --> 00:30:12,613 here we go. It's our first one. 423 00:30:13,373 --> 00:30:17,133 I actually think the clip you played nailed the reasoning for keeping them for 424 00:30:17,133 --> 00:30:21,333 longer. And part of that was the interest rates. I kind of think that's it. 425 00:30:21,833 --> 00:30:25,933 I also suspect they're just not as great of products. 426 00:30:26,533 --> 00:30:30,113 You know, the capacitive touch or the integration with, you know. 427 00:30:30,113 --> 00:30:35,813 Some of these infotainment systems, which have the highest rates of complaints amongst customers. 428 00:30:36,433 --> 00:30:38,753 But we'll keep talking about it as the booths roll in. 429 00:30:39,967 --> 00:30:46,087 Gene Everett comes in with Rho Dux. It says boost. Thank you. Appreciate that. 430 00:30:46,767 --> 00:30:48,567 Ace Ackerman comes in with Rho Dux. 431 00:30:49,767 --> 00:30:51,067 Value for Value episode 11. 432 00:30:52,747 --> 00:30:59,727 Thank you, Ace. Wartime comes in with 3,333 sats. Boost! 433 00:31:00,387 --> 00:31:02,747 No message, just the support. Thank you, Wartime. 434 00:31:03,867 --> 00:31:07,467 GolfWinch comes in with 6,777 sats. 435 00:31:07,487 --> 00:31:11,107 Coming in hot with the boost. You are the top Bitcoin podcast in tie with David 436 00:31:11,107 --> 00:31:12,607 Bennett's. Well, thank you. 437 00:31:13,387 --> 00:31:15,107 Bitcoin and, huh? And we'll check it out. 438 00:31:15,987 --> 00:31:18,927 Zach Gilles comes in with a row of ducks. 439 00:31:20,867 --> 00:31:26,427 2,222 sats. The car situation is a combination of not being able to afford or finance a new one. 440 00:31:27,727 --> 00:31:31,327 And all of the emissions and spyware BS features being included in them. 441 00:31:31,927 --> 00:31:36,467 I had to break the bell out for that. My dream car has turned into buying an 442 00:31:36,467 --> 00:31:38,147 older pickup truck and fixing it up myself. 443 00:31:38,727 --> 00:31:40,627 But even used car prices are ridiculous now. 444 00:31:41,207 --> 00:31:45,327 Yeah, Zach, that's kind of my dream car too. Or I know there's that new Toyota 445 00:31:45,327 --> 00:31:47,787 Hilux, but it's not a Hilux. 446 00:31:48,707 --> 00:31:52,847 But it starts at like $10,000 and doesn't even come with a radio. 447 00:31:52,967 --> 00:31:55,287 And it's just a super bare bones truck. 448 00:31:56,587 --> 00:31:59,787 But with a modern Toyota engine, that sounds pretty compelling. 449 00:32:00,767 --> 00:32:06,127 I agree with you though. I used to, when I was younger, I wasted a lot of money 450 00:32:06,127 --> 00:32:08,387 on cars. In my 20s when I worked in IT. 451 00:32:09,527 --> 00:32:12,447 I wasted a lot of money on cars because they were, you know, 452 00:32:12,447 --> 00:32:16,947 getting faster and more technologically advanced and adding Bluetooth and then 453 00:32:16,947 --> 00:32:18,047 adding infotainment systems. 454 00:32:18,107 --> 00:32:20,827 And for a minute, it was going in a good direction. 455 00:32:21,787 --> 00:32:25,507 But now the systems have, you know, they haven't stayed competitive. 456 00:32:25,747 --> 00:32:28,267 And you're right. There's tons of spyware baked in now, too. 457 00:32:29,407 --> 00:32:32,807 I really. And then the other thing is, as inflation has gotten worse, 458 00:32:32,967 --> 00:32:38,767 and now perhaps we see stagflation setting in, it just becomes more compelling 459 00:32:38,767 --> 00:32:41,167 to fix up what you got and keep it running. 460 00:32:42,107 --> 00:32:48,647 And you realize then simplicity is like one of the number one things you want to shop for in a vehicle. 461 00:32:49,287 --> 00:32:52,447 Because the simpler it is, the more you can maintain it yourself. 462 00:32:53,207 --> 00:32:55,907 And I have three different cars, which is a mistake in itself. 463 00:32:56,367 --> 00:33:00,907 And each one is a different tier of complexity. And it's fascinating how much 464 00:33:00,907 --> 00:33:04,667 harder the car that's really complex with all the electronics and sensors and 465 00:33:04,667 --> 00:33:07,047 really tight engine bay is pretty much impossible to work on. 466 00:33:09,261 --> 00:33:11,981 So I think you're on to something there, Zach. I think you're on to something. 467 00:33:12,041 --> 00:33:12,941 Thank you very much for the boost. 468 00:33:13,141 --> 00:33:17,321 Appreciate that. And in fact, appreciate everybody's boost. These are some solid 469 00:33:17,321 --> 00:33:20,521 boosterines, as they say. Right? People say that, right? 470 00:33:21,961 --> 00:33:26,661 Oppie 1984 comes in with 4,000 sats. I hoard that which your kind covet. 471 00:33:26,881 --> 00:33:29,521 Five years ago, I took out an auto loan through my credit union, 472 00:33:29,641 --> 00:33:32,081 who's also my bank. The interest rate was 4%. 473 00:33:33,501 --> 00:33:37,561 Last year, I was in the office discussing a second loan to cover my dog's surgery. 474 00:33:37,661 --> 00:33:38,601 He's fine now, by the way. 475 00:33:39,261 --> 00:33:41,721 And we looked at adding that to my loan, to my current auto loan, 476 00:33:41,801 --> 00:33:43,701 I should say. Just maybe refinance the whole thing. 477 00:33:44,461 --> 00:33:50,041 It would have gone from 4% to 7.35%, even though my credit score had improved 478 00:33:50,041 --> 00:33:52,761 by 97 points since taking out the original loan. 479 00:33:53,441 --> 00:33:56,561 So I just took out a separate loan. With these rates, I'm not buying anytime soon. 480 00:33:57,621 --> 00:34:01,101 That's just it, too. You know, you can't pay cash because they're so expensive. 481 00:34:02,421 --> 00:34:05,981 And the interest rates make it just ridiculous. Ridiculous. I don't know if 482 00:34:05,981 --> 00:34:10,081 you guys have ever watched Vice Grip Garage on YouTube, but you should go look up Vice Grip Garage. 483 00:34:10,921 --> 00:34:14,541 This guy, he's hilarious. His name's Derek. He goes out into fields or, 484 00:34:14,561 --> 00:34:17,761 you know, barns or garages where a car has been parked for 20, 485 00:34:18,321 --> 00:34:21,001 30, even 50 years. I mean, it's ridiculous, this guy. 486 00:34:21,541 --> 00:34:26,041 Car hasn't moved. It just sat there and rusted. It looks like a pile of garbage. 487 00:34:26,141 --> 00:34:28,221 And this guy manages to fix it up and get it driving. 488 00:34:29,081 --> 00:34:30,861 You know, he'll buy him for like two, 300 bucks. 489 00:34:32,001 --> 00:34:36,641 Now, he's got unbelievable skills, but it just makes you really think, 490 00:34:36,741 --> 00:34:41,921 you know, get a $200, $300 car, drive it until it falls apart. 491 00:34:42,761 --> 00:34:45,441 Better than sitting in a landfill, I suppose. And you can make a planter out 492 00:34:45,441 --> 00:34:47,921 of it. Faraday Fedora comes in with a row of ducks. 493 00:34:49,921 --> 00:34:53,681 Now, it's not KYC-free, but my stacking solution in Canada has been ShakePay. 494 00:34:53,781 --> 00:34:57,801 No lightning yet, but they have prepay Visa that gets you 1% back in sats. 495 00:34:58,281 --> 00:35:01,421 I run all my work expenses to get reimbursed, and it adds up pretty quickly. 496 00:35:02,101 --> 00:35:08,221 Nice move, dude. Getting 1% back SATs on work expenses to get reimbursed for? 497 00:35:09,414 --> 00:35:15,694 Dude, that's the ninja move right there. It's a good company that supports self-custody. 498 00:35:15,814 --> 00:35:19,994 I got a link for any Canadians who want to try it. We both get 20 bucks when you put in $100. 499 00:35:20,514 --> 00:35:23,614 And he has a ShakePay URL. I will add that to the show notes. 500 00:35:23,774 --> 00:35:27,214 Faraday Fedora, thank you for the plug for ShakePay. 501 00:35:27,334 --> 00:35:31,914 Being a non-Canadian, they didn't even know about it. But the name does ring a bell, actually. 502 00:35:32,854 --> 00:35:35,974 Ah, Barks comes in with 9,000 sets. 503 00:35:36,214 --> 00:35:41,994 Make it so. So and Bark says using Podverse, hey, Chris, thanks for this podcast and the boosters. 504 00:35:42,054 --> 00:35:45,194 I managed to get my Bitcoin out of my samurai wallet that I should have had 505 00:35:45,194 --> 00:35:48,814 moved out, but got lazy. Well, good. 506 00:35:50,334 --> 00:35:53,414 Good. I've learned my lesson on that point. So I wanted to pay it forward. 507 00:35:53,514 --> 00:35:56,634 Also, as a UK Bitcoiner, I like all the tips on EU stacking. 508 00:35:56,774 --> 00:35:58,674 One question on hardware wallets. 509 00:35:58,974 --> 00:36:01,834 Would you recommend any other wallets other than the cold card? 510 00:36:02,274 --> 00:36:08,494 That's not possible. Nothing can do that. Well, I don't have a lot of experience outside the cold card. 511 00:36:08,614 --> 00:36:12,654 I do have a Trezor that I played with a long time ago, but I don't necessarily recommend it. 512 00:36:12,954 --> 00:36:16,714 If you or someone you're recommending it for is mobile first, 513 00:36:16,994 --> 00:36:21,834 I hear good things about the BitKey from Block. It is available in 95 countries. 514 00:36:22,314 --> 00:36:26,254 I've also gotten good reports from the audience on Blockstream's Jade, 515 00:36:26,394 --> 00:36:29,714 but I don't have direct experience with Jade Wallet. 516 00:36:29,974 --> 00:36:32,714 I would love people to boost in and tell me what hardware wallets. 517 00:36:32,714 --> 00:36:36,794 Don't dox yourself much, but just yay or nay or good experiences with other 518 00:36:36,794 --> 00:36:39,534 hardware wallets besides the cold card I think would be great because I'm very 519 00:36:39,534 --> 00:36:40,674 much focused on the cold card. 520 00:36:41,014 --> 00:36:45,654 And that's not necessarily great from a something goes wrong, 521 00:36:45,794 --> 00:36:50,074 they go out of business, they get compromised standpoint. I should probably have a backup plan. 522 00:36:50,634 --> 00:36:53,394 So I'd really appreciate any insights you all have. Boost in and tell me what 523 00:36:53,394 --> 00:36:54,994 hardware wallets besides the cold card. 524 00:36:55,174 --> 00:36:56,434 Because I think right now the 525 00:36:56,434 --> 00:36:59,194 cold card is the one to beat. But you tell me. Boost in and let me know. 526 00:36:59,714 --> 00:37:01,034 That's a great question. and 527 00:37:01,034 --> 00:37:04,474 hopefully, Barks, I can pass it along to you soon. The answer, at least. 528 00:37:05,974 --> 00:37:10,354 Lazy Locks comes in with 10,000 sats. It's over 9,000! 529 00:37:11,094 --> 00:37:13,314 And just says another awesome episode. Thanks, Chris. Thank you, 530 00:37:13,314 --> 00:37:17,014 Lazy Locks. Just a nice simple boost. Just let me know you're out there. 531 00:37:17,154 --> 00:37:18,854 Send me that signal. I really appreciate it. 532 00:37:20,254 --> 00:37:23,434 And Anonymous, I don't think I got your name. I don't know if this thing didn't 533 00:37:23,434 --> 00:37:27,434 scrape bits or if you were just being anonymous on purpose. 534 00:37:27,674 --> 00:37:29,774 2,000 sats. B-O-O-S-T! T. 535 00:37:30,254 --> 00:37:34,454 Hey, Chris. Thanks for the shout out for Rely. It's either Rely or Rely AI, but I think it's Rely. 536 00:37:34,914 --> 00:37:38,194 Has anyone watched the movie Dirty Coin? I was able to see it. 537 00:37:38,594 --> 00:37:42,134 I was able to see Stranded. That is only part of it. You just need to create 538 00:37:42,134 --> 00:37:46,214 an account on IndieHub.studio. You'll need to provide a CB, but you won't be charged. 539 00:37:46,694 --> 00:37:48,874 After watching it, you can close your account. All the best, John. 540 00:37:49,514 --> 00:37:54,114 Dirty Coin. You know, before I go sign up for something and, 541 00:37:54,114 --> 00:37:57,194 you know, go through that hassle, I kind of want to know what Dirty Coin is. 542 00:37:58,414 --> 00:38:04,374 Nice tease, though. At least he thinks anonymous. Don't really know. But we'll see. 543 00:38:05,588 --> 00:38:08,888 So I have a 2,000-sat cutoff, but I wanted to give a shout-out to SirFunk, 544 00:38:08,988 --> 00:38:13,788 who came in and said, keep fighting the good fight, and had a good point about 545 00:38:13,788 --> 00:38:16,728 big blockers. We had 16 boosters. 546 00:38:17,208 --> 00:38:21,828 We got to 100,937 sats. That's not a blowaway for the amount of work this show 547 00:38:21,828 --> 00:38:25,228 gets, and I'll just put it out there to you if you get value out of this show. 548 00:38:25,348 --> 00:38:29,548 And I feel like my commitment to you is try to make a real high-signal show. 549 00:38:30,168 --> 00:38:33,608 So that way you can take it in, and whatever kind of models you have that help 550 00:38:33,608 --> 00:38:36,708 you inform your decisions in life. You know, whatever mental models you go by, 551 00:38:36,868 --> 00:38:40,688 I'm hoping I can be a high signal data point for how you think about Bitcoin 552 00:38:40,688 --> 00:38:42,348 or the macroeconomic situations. 553 00:38:42,428 --> 00:38:47,868 And maybe that influences decisions you make from grocery purchases or employment or how you stack. 554 00:38:48,048 --> 00:38:50,648 And if you find that kind of insight and information valuable, 555 00:38:50,928 --> 00:38:53,948 I'd hope you'd return what you find that value to the show through a boost. 556 00:38:54,088 --> 00:38:55,748 You can do that with something like Fountain FM. 557 00:38:56,448 --> 00:38:59,048 You can boost through their website without switching podcast apps. 558 00:38:59,308 --> 00:39:02,428 You just need something that can scan lightning QR codes and send sats. 559 00:39:02,428 --> 00:39:06,828 Or go try out the podcasting 2.0 experience because this here pod. 560 00:39:08,168 --> 00:39:13,308 Transcripts, chapters, value for value, magic wallet switching technology for music and more. 561 00:39:13,428 --> 00:39:17,568 Like within 90 seconds of the show being posted, your podcast client knows about 562 00:39:17,568 --> 00:39:19,248 it and goes and pulls down the file. 563 00:39:19,368 --> 00:39:22,248 And in the future, if there was ever some kind of event, real breaking news, 564 00:39:22,408 --> 00:39:26,628 I can go live in the RSS feed and you just open up your podcast client. 565 00:39:26,788 --> 00:39:28,968 Boom. Hey, there's This Week in Bitcoin. He's live right now. 566 00:39:29,008 --> 00:39:29,928 Let's see what he's talking about. 567 00:39:30,948 --> 00:39:33,268 You know, breaking news. I don't know what it would be, right? 568 00:39:33,948 --> 00:39:37,168 Maybe when Bitcoin reaches a million. I don't know. You know, it's a live stream. 569 00:39:37,508 --> 00:39:40,308 These are all podcasting 2.0 features that you just get for free. 570 00:39:40,348 --> 00:39:43,648 It's all in open spec. You just need a new podcast app that knows what to do with it. 571 00:39:44,028 --> 00:39:47,868 You can find those at podcastapps.com. And then you can boost in as well. 572 00:39:47,968 --> 00:39:49,228 Thank you, everybody who does. 573 00:39:49,548 --> 00:39:52,488 Really appreciate it. It really means a lot. It's a good signal to, 574 00:39:52,528 --> 00:39:55,188 you know, how engaging the episode was or how valuable it was. 575 00:39:55,388 --> 00:39:58,928 And I internalize that and I try to make sure that I use that to inform future 576 00:39:58,928 --> 00:40:03,188 directions for the show. Also, always really appreciate ideas and feedback for the pod as well. 577 00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:14,160 Music. 578 00:40:14,087 --> 00:40:17,167 I'm not going to sit here and tell you to store all your Bitcoin in liquid. 579 00:40:19,267 --> 00:40:22,927 Go burn all those perfectly good sats for some liquid Bitcoin. 580 00:40:22,987 --> 00:40:24,027 No, I'm not going to do that. 581 00:40:24,107 --> 00:40:29,827 But I do think liquid should be in your stacking rotation as a way to store 582 00:40:29,827 --> 00:40:32,807 up UTXOs before you move them to cold storage. 583 00:40:32,987 --> 00:40:36,587 The idea being that you could make smaller transactions, maybe on strike or 584 00:40:36,587 --> 00:40:38,307 in a DCA or however you do it. 585 00:40:39,587 --> 00:40:42,427 Then you store that on liquid until you get to a large amount. 586 00:40:42,427 --> 00:40:44,647 And then you move that large amount to cold storage. 587 00:40:44,747 --> 00:40:49,727 So that way, in the future, if fees are high, you don't get left with UTXOs that you can't spend. 588 00:40:50,047 --> 00:40:56,107 And one of the tools that has just been super useful in this stacking has been bolts.exchange. 589 00:40:56,547 --> 00:41:03,507 But until this week, they didn't have a way to go directly from Liquid to main chain. 590 00:41:03,647 --> 00:41:07,727 You had to use something like sideswap.io. Some apps have this built in like Aqua. 591 00:41:08,047 --> 00:41:12,967 But Bolts wasn't actually doing the swap from liquid back to on-chain. 592 00:41:13,047 --> 00:41:16,727 They could do lightning to liquid and liquid to lightning and on-chain to lightning 593 00:41:16,727 --> 00:41:20,627 and back and forth. Like they were doing all that, but they weren't doing liquid to main chain. 594 00:41:21,887 --> 00:41:26,747 Now this is super useful on the back end for managing lightning channel liquidity. 595 00:41:27,827 --> 00:41:32,887 This is one of the things Boltz is doing a lot is helping lightning nodes manage 596 00:41:32,887 --> 00:41:34,787 their liquidity and swap in using liquid. 597 00:41:34,927 --> 00:41:39,187 It's actually really neat stuff and it's making the lightning network more reliable. 598 00:41:39,327 --> 00:41:42,247 I have a link in the blog post that goes into more... I have a link to the blog 599 00:41:42,247 --> 00:41:44,127 post in the show notes that goes into more detail. 600 00:41:45,227 --> 00:41:51,027 But now using bolts.exchange, you can both go from lightning into liquid or 601 00:41:51,027 --> 00:41:55,047 main chain into liquid and from liquid now to main chain or lightning. 602 00:41:56,147 --> 00:42:02,487 So my stacking regime remains... If you're going to DCA and you're going to 603 00:42:02,487 --> 00:42:04,867 do it with a KYC organization, a know-your-custom organization, 604 00:42:06,407 --> 00:42:07,847 choose one that supports lightning. 605 00:42:09,567 --> 00:42:14,987 River is a great example i guess coinbase does now there's a lot out there to 606 00:42:14,987 --> 00:42:19,187 support lightning we've mentioned some before in the boost segment you stack 607 00:42:19,187 --> 00:42:20,587 with a provider that supports lightning, 608 00:42:21,567 --> 00:42:24,947 using lightning you go to bolts bolt swaps it to liquid, 609 00:42:26,387 --> 00:42:32,087 you use liquid as kind of a temporary storage place to stack up and then once 610 00:42:32,087 --> 00:42:35,347 you've got i mean i don't know i think my number these days is, 611 00:42:36,447 --> 00:42:40,507 around 5 million sats you know it sometimes it's one it just depends on you 612 00:42:40,507 --> 00:42:43,787 it's each one it depends on where you're at i i've had some listeners tell me 613 00:42:43,787 --> 00:42:48,707 like you know when i get to 15 million sats i'm like wow okay you know for me 614 00:42:48,707 --> 00:42:50,327 it's somewhere between one to five million, 615 00:42:51,507 --> 00:42:55,267 that's kind of when i feel okay i can put that in cold storage my main goal 616 00:42:55,267 --> 00:42:57,687 is i don't want to end up with bitcoin i can't spend in 2030, 617 00:42:59,710 --> 00:43:04,930 And the Liquid Network provides sort of a space where you can swap the coins. 618 00:43:04,990 --> 00:43:06,470 It kind of breaks the trail a bit. 619 00:43:07,390 --> 00:43:10,150 I mean, of course, wherever you bought, it still has a record of what you bought. 620 00:43:10,250 --> 00:43:12,790 So you're not sneaking away from taxes or anything like that. 621 00:43:13,590 --> 00:43:17,410 But you are getting a little privacy from people that just want to snoop on 622 00:43:17,410 --> 00:43:18,670 your stack and watch your transactions. 623 00:43:18,970 --> 00:43:21,650 So it's still kind of a nice little benefit. So Bolst.Exchange, 624 00:43:21,770 --> 00:43:25,210 big, big update this week. Really big update. Congratulations to them. 625 00:43:25,450 --> 00:43:27,750 As you can tell, I'm actually quite excited about it. 626 00:43:32,370 --> 00:43:38,150 Now, I have a resource of the week that really tickled me. It's a bit of a read. It is a bit of a read. 627 00:43:39,050 --> 00:43:41,270 But a peer-reviewed study has come out. 628 00:43:42,210 --> 00:43:46,370 And it looks into Bitcoiners and their personalities. 629 00:43:47,970 --> 00:43:51,870 And one of the results is that Bitcoiners tend to be intellectually curious 630 00:43:51,870 --> 00:43:55,830 and a little more emotionally stable than average. They tend to value personal 631 00:43:55,830 --> 00:43:58,030 growth, relationships and community. 632 00:43:59,310 --> 00:44:03,270 And they scored significantly higher in financial literacy. Now, 633 00:44:03,290 --> 00:44:06,850 this is an over the phone survey. They go into some of their details. 634 00:44:07,490 --> 00:44:10,730 It seems kind of fun to read, though. It turns out Bitcoiners, 635 00:44:10,750 --> 00:44:12,110 you know, they get called all kinds 636 00:44:12,110 --> 00:44:15,310 of names, psychopaths and right wing lunatics or whatever it might be. 637 00:44:15,310 --> 00:44:21,470 But a peer-reviewed study that went and did the work actually shows them to be intellectual, 638 00:44:21,970 --> 00:44:26,210 valuing relationships and community, not particularly materialistic, 639 00:44:26,210 --> 00:44:30,570 and to have higher financial literacy than the rest of the general public. 640 00:44:31,740 --> 00:44:36,380 I'm like, it's so counter to the narratives that have been out there all these years. 641 00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,080 It's really, I just, I don't know why Tickle Sweet does that. 642 00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,080 You'll have to go read it. Link in the show notes. 643 00:44:43,460 --> 00:44:47,960 Okay, our final clip of the week. I don't know if I've played a safe clip on the show. 644 00:44:48,020 --> 00:44:51,720 You know, safe is the offer, offer. Oh boy, it's a good thing it's the end of the show, guys. 645 00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:54,780 I think my mouth is going to retire for the day. 646 00:44:55,400 --> 00:45:00,100 Safe is the author of the Bitcoin Standard, one of the quintessential reads. 647 00:45:00,100 --> 00:45:03,720 And this is kind of an older clip, but I thought this could be a good one that 648 00:45:03,720 --> 00:45:08,140 you could probably play for your no-coiner friends or family that still haven't 649 00:45:08,140 --> 00:45:13,140 wrapped their heads around why Bitcoin and why Bitcoin's monetary policy ultimately 650 00:45:13,140 --> 00:45:17,540 is what makes it the number one crypto and why there really truly isn't a second best. 651 00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:21,100 It's not a technology thing. It's a monetary policy. 652 00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:26,120 And what Saif talks about here is how Bitcoin is more like financial gunpowder 653 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:28,400 than it is a technology like the iPhone. 654 00:45:28,560 --> 00:45:34,380 It's not optional. I mean, you will either move there or you will watch your 655 00:45:34,380 --> 00:45:38,220 wealth lose its value as the people who put their money there appreciate. 656 00:45:38,500 --> 00:45:41,340 You know what I mean? Just think about it. You know, if you have a million dollars 657 00:45:41,340 --> 00:45:45,720 and you put them in a currency that's constantly depreciating or somebody has 658 00:45:45,720 --> 00:45:49,520 $10,000 and puts them in a currency that's constantly appreciating, 659 00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:53,500 it's only a matter of time until they overtake you. 660 00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,760 And, you know, people are not stupid. They will realize this and they will want to move forward. 661 00:45:58,400 --> 00:46:03,800 So when I talk about Bitcoin adoption, people think of it as being like, 662 00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,320 say, Apple iPhone adoption. 663 00:46:06,580 --> 00:46:10,080 You know, it's very nice and very cute and then people will buy it. 664 00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,260 But I think that's not the model for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is more like gunpowder adoption. 665 00:46:14,285 --> 00:46:20,625 If you think about it, did the French army have a choice whether they should adopt gunpowder or not? 666 00:46:20,765 --> 00:46:24,925 Did they decide, no, you know what, we like to keep it real with sticks and 667 00:46:24,925 --> 00:46:28,605 stones and swords and we're not going to use gunpowder. 668 00:46:29,005 --> 00:46:33,845 Any army that decided to do this, it didn't matter because then another army 669 00:46:33,845 --> 00:46:36,185 with gunpowder would come and take over France. 670 00:46:36,185 --> 00:46:39,905 So eventually, everywhere in the world ended up with gunpowder, 671 00:46:39,985 --> 00:46:44,405 either because people adopted it or because it was used against them. 672 00:46:44,665 --> 00:46:47,605 And I think Bitcoin is like that. Bitcoin is like financial gunpowder. 673 00:46:47,845 --> 00:46:52,925 It's the safest way of sending money halfway around the world, the most secure way. 674 00:46:53,485 --> 00:46:58,105 And it's the hardest money that we've ever invented. So it's not something that 675 00:46:58,105 --> 00:47:01,385 is, you know, whether we should or want to or whether people, 676 00:47:01,485 --> 00:47:03,585 you know, we try to win people over. 677 00:47:03,585 --> 00:47:06,705 And this you know this is why my book is not marketing for 678 00:47:06,705 --> 00:47:09,325 bitcoin because i don't think marketing for bitcoin matters at the 679 00:47:09,325 --> 00:47:12,305 end of the day this is economic reality the harder money will 680 00:47:12,305 --> 00:47:15,405 win you know gold beats silver and 681 00:47:15,405 --> 00:47:19,405 i discussed this in my book not because um you know there was better marketing 682 00:47:19,405 --> 00:47:22,865 for gold or it was better propaganda for gold beat silver because of economic 683 00:47:22,865 --> 00:47:27,305 reality gold grew at a much slower rate than silver the value of silver declined 684 00:47:27,305 --> 00:47:32,485 and i think this is this is really the the case with um with bitcoin i think 685 00:47:32,485 --> 00:47:34,765 at the long run All right. 686 00:47:34,785 --> 00:47:38,445 That wraps us up. So if you made it this far, I want to just say thank you very 687 00:47:38,445 --> 00:47:40,465 much. I'm going to be out in the woods next week. 688 00:47:41,005 --> 00:47:44,045 I still plan to do a show, but it might sound slightly different. 689 00:47:44,125 --> 00:47:47,185 If you know somebody out there that's looking for a high signal Bitcoin news 690 00:47:47,185 --> 00:47:48,965 podcast, we just send them my way. 691 00:47:49,385 --> 00:47:52,965 I'd really appreciate that. And also, if you're on Fountain FM, 692 00:47:53,265 --> 00:47:56,205 I'm at Chris LAS on there. I make clips of the show on occasion. 693 00:47:56,885 --> 00:47:59,505 If you want to help spread those around, that's probably another way people 694 00:47:59,505 --> 00:48:02,965 could discover the show. And you can always help us show up on the charts by 695 00:48:02,965 --> 00:48:05,945 boosting in, helps people discover the show, because then we show up at the 696 00:48:05,945 --> 00:48:08,125 top of the Discover page on Fountain. 697 00:48:08,465 --> 00:48:10,005 And that brings them in. I really 698 00:48:10,005 --> 00:48:12,465 appreciate everybody who helps grow the show. It's still early days. 699 00:48:12,945 --> 00:48:15,845 We're still under 20 episodes even. It's just a baby. 700 00:48:16,185 --> 00:48:19,385 It's just a little baby. And I appreciate everybody for listening. 701 00:48:19,705 --> 00:48:24,125 Now, this is a Podcasting 2.0 show. And in that spirit, we're going to end with 702 00:48:24,125 --> 00:48:28,165 a value for value track. That means if you boost while this track is playing, 703 00:48:28,285 --> 00:48:32,685 90% of your sats go to the artist and whoever they have in their splits. 704 00:48:32,885 --> 00:48:36,025 And this week, it's Tiptoe by Jack Holliday. 705 00:48:36,545 --> 00:48:38,845 Thank you so much for joining me on This Week in Bitcoin. 706 00:48:40,265 --> 00:48:41,305 Hope you enjoyed the episode. 707 00:48:41,520 --> 00:51:24,975 Music.