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As I said before, keep your eye on one thing and one thing only,

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how much government is spending.

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Because that's the true tax. Every budget is balanced.

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There is no such thing as an unbalanced federal budget.

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You're paying for it. If you're not paying for it through it in the form of

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explicit taxes, you're paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or

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in the form of borrowing.

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The thing you should keep your eye on is what government spends.

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And the real problem is to hold down government spending as a fraction of our income.

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And if you do that, you can stop worrying about the debt.

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Music.

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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 41.

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My name is Chris, chrisles.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com. That was the famous

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Milton Friedman in the intro right there, and we'll come back to him later.

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But I'm kicking 2025 off with a packed episode. What a fascinating time to be back.

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And we're going to get a little wonky right off the top here,

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I apologize. But I think you're going to find some value in this.

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Because I think looking back, retrospectively, it's clear that 2024 was really

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about Bitcoin becoming a macro asset.

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But with the companies that are putting on the balance sheet,

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the ETFs, all the talk about Bitcoin reserves, it's just incredible that we're here in 16 years.

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I mean, it's amazing. It's like

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time warp. It's truly bonkers that Bitcoin can be called a macro asset.

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In just 16 years. And I think that was one of the big lessons of 2024.

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So what do I mean when I say it's a macro asset? Like, what am I talking about?

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I think to explain it, I think we can use the lens of volatility.

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The traders love the vol.

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You've probably noticed, or maybe even you yourself think that Bitcoin's volatility,

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its price movement, is completely random.

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I think note coiners think it goes down or it goes up, just totally random.

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There's no expecting it. There's no describing it. There's no understanding it.

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And that makes it scary. And that's why the volatility is so scary.

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It's not really the reality, though.

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Some of it is, but it's more in the middle. The reality is Bitcoin is the only

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free market that runs 24-7 around the whole world.

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So that means Bitcoin moves fast, both in reaction and in recovery time.

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But as time goes on and the bigger and the bigger whales get into the market,

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we see Bitcoin respond to more and more global macro conditions.

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So you'll see it spike or you'll see it drop when war breaks out,

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or you'll see it jump after an election, or you'll see it dip after a lockdown.

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The markets are always forward looking and Bitcoin is going to represent that

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forward looking price action first, as fast as possible, either as fast as possible

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before it happens or right after it happened.

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You buy the rumor and sell the news. It is a real thing.

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So in my opinion, if you want to understand where Bitcoin is going,

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you need to understand what is going on with the global financial system,

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which of course the U.S. plays a major role in.

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But I mean, that's central banks, finance markets, regulatory bodies,

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international financial institutions, of course, the policies,

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the events, The people that drive those.

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And this week, I'm going to try to make the case that the Fed's no longer at

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the wheel, maybe never was at the wheel.

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And the tantrums and the market reactions and the price volatility,

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that's what we're seeing play out right now as this shift is setting in.

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The real power that the Fed's always had is their jawboning,

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their forward guidance.

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That had more impact than any of the rate changes or employment or unemployment.

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And now that even the Fed admits inflation's here for years,

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I think some of the market's eyes have been opened.

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They realized they thought JPOW was their hero, and he's really just a jawboning villain.

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So we're seeing a period of time where people are trying to figure this out

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and understanding that something else is actually driving the market here.

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Something much, much more volatile is actually driving the market.

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I don't often say this, but I agree with the analysis from Goldman Sachs.

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Robert Kaplan was on CNBC and he probably says it better than I can.

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It is wonky, but I think he's nailing it.

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What is the most important thing to markets right now? Is it this week's jobs

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report? Maybe the Fed's rate cut potential. Well, what if it's neither?

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That's the take today from former Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan,

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now vice chairman at Goldman Sachs. And he joins us live. Happy New Year. Welcome back.

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Happy New Year, Scott. So you make that case, right, that that is singularly

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the most important thing right now, the Trump administration and its policies. Why?

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I think monetary policy, it will take a little bit of a seat offstage,

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and fiscal policy and other structural shifts are now center stage.

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That includes what we do on fiscal policy, what we do on tariffs,

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immigration, regulatory review, energy transition.

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And the rate, ironically, as we head in approaching January 20th,

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I'm much more interested in where the 10-year Treasury rate is than I am the Fed funds rate.

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And the people haven't focused as much on this.

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The 10-year Treasury since mid-December has backed up from about 415 to now 462, 463.

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And I think that has a lot more to do with concerns about fiscal policy and

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supply demand of treasuries than it does about inflation or what the Fed's going to do.

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And so I think we just have to be aware of that.

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How much more do you think the 10 year could back up?

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I don't know. I don't know. I think what the 10-year backup says to me is the

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bond market and bond buyers are taking a wait-and-see approach and are showing

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reluctance to buy duration.

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So what's shifting now is every little bit of policy, every trade policy,

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debate about tariffs, any major changes via Doge, if there are any,

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are going to be met with market analysis and analysis paralysis.

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Likely some of it will be positive reaction, but undoubtedly some of it's going

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to be negative. So ultimately, that means there's going to be uncertainty.

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We're going to go into, I think, a little bit more volatile 2025 than people

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were expecting. Although some people expected it.

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Lynn alden has a brand new piece out and it's a banger all aboard the fiscal

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dominance the lever you have pulled breaks is not in service so it's a research

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piece that lynn and another individual named Sam Callahan put together, and it's great.

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And it looks at fiscal dominance in the United States.

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And the analysis explores how the U.S. economy has shifted into what Lin says

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is an era of fiscal dominance.

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That means structural deficits have surpassed private sector lending and monetary

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policy as the key driver, i.e. Fed policy rates are not the key driver.

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But the fiscal situation in the United States, rising national debt,

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persistent deficits, inflationary pressures, monetary tools have been rendered essentially useless.

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That's why we don't see like the Fed lowering the rate, actually lowering the

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rate you pay on a mortgage.

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Mortgage rates have gone up despite the Fed lowering the rates by 100 basis points now.

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Fiscal dominance is marked by government spending, the entitlements they have

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to spend, interest payments that are increasing, inflation that is increasing.

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The core argument is that structural deficits driven by aging populations,

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health care costs, compounding debt interests.

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We've entered into this no-go zone that essentially is now going to be the dominating

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factor, and the policy that tries to address that is going to be what people react to.

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I could explain it more, but allow me to summon a better explanation via the computer.

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Here's the high-level overview. Structural fiscal deficits have surpassed private

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sector lending and monetary policy as the primary drivers of economic activity

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and inflation, marking a fundamental shift in the economy's liquidity dynamics.

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This is a key point to understand. The Department of Government Efficiency is

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unlikely to make meaningful cuts to federal spending,

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as only 14% of the budget is non-defense discretionary, while 87% of nominal

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spending growth over the next

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decade is projected to come from mandatory programs and interest expense.

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Stabilizing factors such as the global demand for U.S.

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Dollars and debt, denominated in its own currency, suggest an era of fiscal dominance in the U.S.

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That's less dramatic than alarmists predict, but more persistent and intractable

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than optimists hope. Here's the main takeaway.

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The deficit problem is unlikely to be resolved this decade, running structurally

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hot with steady nominal growth and ongoing currency debasement.

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Persistent deficits and inflation

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will likely erode purchasing power and drive asset price inflation.

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Strategies include holding scarce assets, real estate, gold,

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Bitcoin, as hedges against currency debasement.

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However, without reforms to entitlement programs and spending,

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fiscal dominance will remain a defining economic force.

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So here's where we're at. The Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell,

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the chair himself, tells you inflation is going to be here for several years.

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The bond market is telling you inflation is going to be here for a long time.

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And Lynn Alden, who is an absolute genius at this stuff, is telling us that

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inflation is likely to persist for a decade.

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Your purchasing power is likely to erode for a decade, which is going to deepen

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wealth disparities. It's going to create all kinds of issues.

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I mean, this is brutal stuff.

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And I think we could zoom out here for a moment. This shift I'm talking about,

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about other forces driving this, and the Fed never admitting they're wrong,

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and they just jawbone, it's not new.

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I hate to say it. I hate to say it. Because I don't like to be one of these

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guys that's, oh, it's all the Fed, it's all the Fed. Because it's not, actually.

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In fact, I'm going to play a clip from Milton Friedman, who opened our show

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today. I was going to say this morning, because it's morning for me.

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And it's an extended clip. I don't usually play them this long.

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But I think it really encapsulates the core point that I'm trying to make in

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this episode. And I couldn't couldn't track down the exact date of this speech.

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I suspect it's like late 70s. So if anyone knows, please do boost in.

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He's talking to a room full of bankers, I believe.

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And it's incredible how relevant this is in 2025. There is hardly any view that

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is more widespread than the view that somehow or other the Great Depression

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was produced by a failure of private business.

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That view is held not only by those who are in favor of greater role of government.

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It is held by almost everybody.

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I venture to suggest that if you go to any bankers, the people who are here

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today at this banking conference, And if you talk to them, I venture to say

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nine out of ten of them, if they hadn't heard what I'm going to say.

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That nine out of ten of them would say, well, of course the Great Depression

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was a failure of private business.

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It was due to an overextension, over-speculation in the 1920s,

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or it was due to an excessive concentration of wealth in the hands of the wealthy

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at the expense of the poor in the 1920s,

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or it was due to speculative investment abroad, or whatnot.

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But it was a failure of private business, and government had to step in in order

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to rescue private business from its own failure.

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Nothing could be farther from the truth.

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The Great Depression was produced, in my opinion, and I may say this is not a random opinion.

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I will be glad to refer you to a several hundred page book in which it is documented.

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I won't tell you who the author is.

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Mr. Eccles did that. It was produced, the Great Depression was produced by a

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failure of government, by a failure of monetary policy.

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It was produced by a failure of the Federal Reserve System to act in accordance

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with the intentions of those who established it.

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It was produced by a failure of the Federal Reserve System despite the presence

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of knowledge on the part of many of the people in the system about the right course of action.

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It's interesting to speculate for a moment about why this myth is so widespread.

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The answer is really very simple in this case. Private enterprise has no press agents.

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The free market has no press agents.

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The government has a great many press agents.

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The Federal Reserve has a great many press agents.

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And the Federal Reserve, of course, would never admit, never proclaim,

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that it produced the Great Depression. On the contrary.

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And again, I don't mean to be criticizing individuals.

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We're talking about the way institutions operate. You and I are the same as

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all the rest of us. We're all the same.

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The hardest thing in the world is for anybody to admit that he made a mistake.

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If any one of us makes a mistake, we can always find somebody else to blame.

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And if you read, as I have for my sins had to read, the annual reports of the

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Federal Reserve System over a 50-year period, there's only one element of humor

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that lightens that test,

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and that is the cyclical fluctuation in the powers of the Federal Reserve.

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In a good year, when things are good, when the economy is booming,

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you will read that the Federal Reserve, by its wise policy, by its efficacious

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management of money, has produced this fine situation.

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However, let things get bad, and all of a sudden the tone of the annual report is different.

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Then you discover that despite the best efforts of the Federal Reserve,

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outside forces combine to produce difficulties.

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Even at the depth of the Depression in 1933, when in the spring of that year

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the Federal Reserve System, which had been established in order to prevent banking

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panics and keep banks from closing,

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when the Federal Reserve System itself closed its doors and you had banking

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holiday for seven days and when, over the previous three years,

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a third of the banks of this country closed their doors and went broke because,

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in my opinion, of the poor policy followed by the Federal Reserve System.

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Even in 1933, if you read the annual report, you will discover how much worse

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things would have been if the Federal Reserve hadn't behaved so well.

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Now, as I say, I don't blame the members of the Federal Reserve for that.

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Any one of us would do the same thing. we have to find somebody to blame.

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But as an objective scholar, I can tell you what the facts are. The facts were,

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that from 1929 to 1933, the total quantity of money in the United States,

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the amount of currency, the amount of bank deposits, what Mr.

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Eccles referred to as M2, that total amount of money declined by one-third.

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The total number of banks went down by one-third. And why did the quantity of money decline?

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It declined because the Federal Reserve System fail to prevent the decline.

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The Federal Reserve system could have prevented the decline at all times.

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There never was a moment during that period when the Federal Reserve did not

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have the power to prevent the decline in the quantity of money.

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If it had prevented the decline in the quantity of money, you might still have had a recession.

224
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But it would have been a garden-variety recession. It would have been over in

225
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the middle of 1930 or early in 1931 at the latest, it would not have been the

226
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,860
major catastrophe not only for this country but throughout the rest of the world.

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Moreover, this is not only hindsight. At all times, the people at the Federal

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Reserve Bank of New York and at a number of other banks were pleading with the

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Federal Reserve Board in Washington to do the right thing.

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At all times, there were people in Congress who were arguing that the Federal

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00:16:56,020 --> 00:16:57,980
Reserve System should take a different course.

232
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At all times, there were outside commentators,

233
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One of the Canadian banks was particularly prescient, but there were other commentators

234
00:17:08,307 --> 00:17:13,787
who were pointing out the disastrous effects on the American economy of the

235
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restrictive policies that the Federal Reserve System was following,

236
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and which was causing, was permitting and facilitating a whole series of bank runs.

237
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So the Great Depression was not produced by a failure of business.

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On the contrary, it was produced by a failure of government,

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and a failure of government in an area in which responsibility had been assigned

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to government since the founding of this country.

241
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The Constitution of the United States gives Congress the power to coin money

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and set the value thereof.

243
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And it was in the management of this fundamental function of government that

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government failed and produced the Great Depression.

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We have learned from that failure the Federal Reserve will not fail in the same

246
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way again. This time it will fail in a different way.

247
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This time it has been failing, not by producing a Great Depression,

248
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but by producing an inflation.

249
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Because just as you will hear the story that it was business that was responsible

250
00:18:18,187 --> 00:18:23,267
for the Depression, so you will today hear the story that it is labor and management

251
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that are responsible for inflation.

252
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It is the same kind of a myth.

253
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Inflation is made in one place and one place only, Washington, D.C.

254
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And in Washington, D.C., the chief source, immediate source of inflation,

255
00:18:37,827 --> 00:18:43,707
is a Greek temple on Constitution Avenue in which houses the Federal Reserve Board.

256
00:18:44,167 --> 00:18:51,207
An accomplice, and a major accomplice, of course, sits in the halls of Congress in Washington.

257
00:18:51,467 --> 00:18:54,867
They are a major accomplice because you tell them to be.

258
00:18:55,147 --> 00:18:58,567
The American people have been telling Congress for many years,

259
00:18:59,227 --> 00:19:00,787
Spend more money on us, please.

260
00:19:01,427 --> 00:19:03,607
But they've been telling us don't raise our taxes.

261
00:19:04,551 --> 00:19:07,991
Congress has been listening. It's been spending more money on you.

262
00:19:08,391 --> 00:19:11,471
But on the other hand, it's been very unwilling to raise taxes.

263
00:19:11,731 --> 00:19:16,131
As a result, it has imposed inflation as a tax.

264
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That's one tax that you don't have to vote for, but you have to pay.

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Music.

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So my overall takeaway is this. The Federal Reserve was never really in control

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of the direction of inflation.

268
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It was always going to come down to money printing. We knew this,

269
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but the market has always been buying and selling on the word of the Fed and the Fed's numbers.

270
00:19:46,791 --> 00:19:50,311
I think they're starting to realize that's not the play, but they're not sure

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what the long-term play is.

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And I suspect many of them are going to settle on an inflation hedge position,

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something Bitcoiners have known for 16 years.

274
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And I think as people figure this out, assets like Bitcoin and like gold and

275
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others are going to benefit dramatically all over the world.

276
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I think it's going to be huge for Bitcoin once people settle into this inflation

277
00:20:15,751 --> 00:20:18,331
hedge play. So I have a question for you.

278
00:20:18,931 --> 00:20:21,751
And I'd like you to boost in if you would, because after all.

279
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Banks are Ponzi schemes run by morons.

280
00:20:24,611 --> 00:20:30,411
Boost! Are you planning to make any changes now that it seems inflation is here for the long term?

281
00:20:30,931 --> 00:20:35,291
Are you going to change your Bitcoin buying strategy? What about credit card debt?

282
00:20:35,711 --> 00:20:38,791
And I don't think higher inflation for longer is a fully negative thing.

283
00:20:38,911 --> 00:20:41,871
There were several positive outcomes so far for my family as inflation has gone

284
00:20:41,871 --> 00:20:44,371
up. But I do think you have to be prepared.

285
00:20:45,011 --> 00:20:48,331
So how are you preparing for inflation that could last for years?

286
00:20:48,731 --> 00:20:52,711
And if Lynn Alden is right, and she typically is, the rest of this decade.

287
00:20:52,811 --> 00:20:55,771
Banks are Ponzi schemes run by Moritz. So what are you going to do?

288
00:20:55,971 --> 00:20:58,031
Are you planning for it? Boost in and tell me.

289
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Music.

290
00:21:16,128 --> 00:21:19,408
Well, I just want to take a moment and say I always appreciate it when you support

291
00:21:19,408 --> 00:21:21,088
the show by doing what you do.

292
00:21:21,288 --> 00:21:25,228
You can stack sats on River, one of the best ways to do it in the U.S.

293
00:21:25,368 --> 00:21:28,228
They have full proof of reserve, they support the Lightning Network,

294
00:21:28,268 --> 00:21:32,808
and they have an interesting savings plan where you can stack some cash on there,

295
00:21:33,328 --> 00:21:37,268
earn a good interest rate in sats, and then strike by the Bitcoin when the price is right.

296
00:21:37,908 --> 00:21:41,028
I'm going to be telling you more about the Bitcoin Well in a moment.

297
00:21:41,828 --> 00:21:45,948
Amazing self-hosting, self-custody solution. They don't host your wallet.

298
00:21:46,128 --> 00:21:50,568
You buy and sell sats directly from your self-custody wallet.

299
00:21:50,788 --> 00:21:53,028
I'm going to tell you more about it in a moment. The Bitcoin wallet,

300
00:21:53,108 --> 00:21:54,048
I have a link in the show notes.

301
00:21:54,528 --> 00:21:58,828
Really cool platform. Now you want to spend your sats? That's thebitcoincompany.com.

302
00:21:59,008 --> 00:22:00,768
Promo code Jupiter, link in the show notes.

303
00:22:01,608 --> 00:22:05,928
All kinds of different gift cards. You can go from lightning to a gift card

304
00:22:05,928 --> 00:22:09,028
and just like, well, faster than it took me to say that.

305
00:22:09,788 --> 00:22:13,508
Stack sats by paying your bills with the fold card. I love that.

306
00:22:13,508 --> 00:22:16,248
Also buying gas, buying groceries with their debit card, you stack sats.

307
00:22:16,888 --> 00:22:19,408
And then if you want to get access to your Bitcoin value without selling,

308
00:22:19,528 --> 00:22:20,788
that's where Salt Lending comes in.

309
00:22:21,608 --> 00:22:26,248
These are all services I use. No official relationship with them. No contract.

310
00:22:26,648 --> 00:22:31,088
Nobody asked me to say any of this. These are all companies I use and recommend to you.

311
00:22:31,508 --> 00:22:35,068
And you can use the link in the show notes to support the show while checking them out.

312
00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:47,920
Music.

313
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:53,820
And we do have some boosts to get into. And SatSquatch is our baller booster

314
00:22:53,820 --> 00:22:55,900
this week with 88,000 sats.

315
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:05,080
He's using Breeze and he says, here's hoping Twib goes to the moon in 2025.

316
00:23:05,700 --> 00:23:10,680
Best Bitcoin podcast ever. And I listen to Odell and all the others. You're a pro.

317
00:23:11,020 --> 00:23:14,520
Well, thank you, SatSquatch. Also, I like how you managed to fit all that in

318
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,200
there using Breeze's character limit. Very impressive. Breeze,

319
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:18,920
of course, self-hosted Lightning Note in your pocket.

320
00:23:19,500 --> 00:23:22,440
Don't even have to switch podcast apps. It's nice to hear from you too, Squanch.

321
00:23:23,020 --> 00:23:28,040
Or Squatch. You know, I like Squanch. I have to be honest. It's just my Northwestern in me.

322
00:23:28,700 --> 00:23:31,300
He also went on to say, can't wait for the next episode. Hope to see you at

323
00:23:31,300 --> 00:23:33,780
scale this year. Stay healthy, salty, and frosty.

324
00:23:34,700 --> 00:23:39,000
Oh, that's great. I am going to be at scale. The Southern California Linux Expo.

325
00:23:39,500 --> 00:23:43,600
Also at Planet Nix there. And then at Linux Fest up here in the Pacific Northwest in April.

326
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:46,700
If anybody's going to make it to those events, It's going to be pretty cool

327
00:23:46,700 --> 00:23:48,420
to hang out and meet some Twibbers out there.

328
00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,540
And I also am focusing on the health. I am trying to stay healthy because,

329
00:23:52,660 --> 00:23:54,480
you know, I got kids. They're in school.

330
00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:57,180
And I want to be able to go out and do things and keep doing the shows.

331
00:23:57,320 --> 00:23:59,060
Thank you very much. Nice to hear from you, Squanch.

332
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:07,300
Anonymous came in with 57,777 sats. I hoard that which your kind covets.

333
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:11,700
Oh, Anonymous, huh? Hmm. All right. Fan of the Lunduk days here to say this

334
00:24:11,700 --> 00:24:15,220
is the best Bitcoin podcast in the universe. Go podcasting.

335
00:24:15,900 --> 00:24:21,800
Oh, you guys are great. Boost! Thank you. And wow. I mean, so the Lunduk days is...

336
00:24:23,150 --> 00:24:29,170
See, that would be, I mean, mid-aughts, right? I mean, early 2014 era? Wow.

337
00:24:29,890 --> 00:24:33,450
I have a JB Party membership, but I miss boosting, so I set up my self-hosted

338
00:24:33,450 --> 00:24:37,150
AlbiHub and connected my old Albi account into Podverse.

339
00:24:37,510 --> 00:24:40,450
This Week in Bitcoin is one of my favorite shows. I never miss an episode.

340
00:24:41,530 --> 00:24:44,690
You rock socks, Chris. Also, shout out to the Bitcoin dad.

341
00:24:45,310 --> 00:24:48,390
The whole run taught me so much. I'd love if he could ever guest with you,

342
00:24:48,510 --> 00:24:51,190
magic numbers, and luck for prosperity. Pew, pew, pew. Oh, yeah.

343
00:24:51,630 --> 00:24:55,070
I see the threes in there. Thank you. Because I'm the wind.

344
00:24:55,450 --> 00:25:01,390
You know, I haven't approached the idea to dad, but I have thought it would be pretty great.

345
00:25:01,490 --> 00:25:04,030
Like that Lynn Alden piece, I just miss going through those with him.

346
00:25:04,670 --> 00:25:07,730
And I think it'd be pretty neat. Like if I could, you know, record a little

347
00:25:07,730 --> 00:25:10,530
thing with him and then play it in the show or something. Wouldn't have to do it live or anything.

348
00:25:11,310 --> 00:25:14,650
Because he's just, oh, he's brilliant. He goes on to say, what I don't like

349
00:25:14,650 --> 00:25:18,730
about River is their partner played, which they use to connect to your bank

350
00:25:18,730 --> 00:25:22,950
account. The way they work, they want way too much information about my accounts,

351
00:25:23,110 --> 00:25:24,510
my transaction histories, and balances.

352
00:25:25,310 --> 00:25:29,090
So I read the so-called privacy policy, and, well, no can do.

353
00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:34,730
Yeah, I do hear complaints about plate, and I admit that I have not read the privacy policy.

354
00:25:36,170 --> 00:25:39,630
Multiple services started using it before I realized it's probably a problem.

355
00:25:40,130 --> 00:25:43,270
So I'm kind of already in. You know, they got me.

356
00:25:43,610 --> 00:25:45,990
I don't know if I make it worse by continuing to use it or not.

357
00:25:46,190 --> 00:25:49,550
He goes on to say, I use Strike to get a portion of my paycheck direct deposited

358
00:25:49,550 --> 00:25:51,990
to Bitcoin. I DCA all the way.

359
00:25:52,610 --> 00:25:55,890
River might be a destination for some of those sets, but I have to look more

360
00:25:55,890 --> 00:26:00,390
into what they have to offer before I do the KYC process. I think that's a fair assessment.

361
00:26:01,608 --> 00:26:04,728
He does have a follow-up. He says, River's partner played wants the login credentials

362
00:26:04,728 --> 00:26:08,968
to my bank account. That gives them total control and visibility. It's far too much trust.

363
00:26:09,388 --> 00:26:13,088
Why can't River do wire transfers or link via your account and routing number?

364
00:26:13,448 --> 00:26:16,988
I see no excuse for having to use a played direct login credentials to my bank

365
00:26:16,988 --> 00:26:20,888
or online portal. It really upsets me that they presume that this is going to be okay.

366
00:26:21,748 --> 00:26:25,688
Disappointed in River and played. And that's P-L-A-I-D. Yeah,

367
00:26:25,808 --> 00:26:27,868
I think what would be nice is if they offered both.

368
00:26:28,108 --> 00:26:30,928
They obviously consider it to be a better user experience. You know,

369
00:26:31,008 --> 00:26:34,968
you put your online banking credentials in and then it figures out the rest. Pretty creepy.

370
00:26:35,548 --> 00:26:40,968
And I agree. So I would prefer to just copy and paste my routing and account number.

371
00:26:41,088 --> 00:26:43,848
It's really not a big deal. It's bonkers to me that they go through all that

372
00:26:43,848 --> 00:26:47,988
other trouble and that security risk. Thank you for all those ducks.

373
00:26:49,588 --> 00:26:55,628
Adversary 17 comes in with 25,000 sats. He's a good guy. He's a real good guy. No, he's a great guy.

374
00:26:56,028 --> 00:26:59,668
Great episode. I do like the quote, here are the facts, idiots.

375
00:26:59,668 --> 00:27:01,368
It's Chris. It gets me fired up too.

376
00:27:02,828 --> 00:27:06,808
The liquid swap flow sounds like a good one. I'm going to start using that one.

377
00:27:07,648 --> 00:27:10,968
My Albi Hub, I'm going to use my Albi Hub for boosting an Aqua Wallet as the

378
00:27:10,968 --> 00:27:13,668
middleman between sending to cold storage or topping off my Albi Hub.

379
00:27:13,748 --> 00:27:15,048
I think that would work really well.

380
00:27:15,408 --> 00:27:18,628
He also sent 5,000 sets to our artist.

381
00:27:19,168 --> 00:27:22,648
You're so boosted. Thank you for boosting the song. Appreciate that, adversaries.

382
00:27:23,168 --> 00:27:28,448
You know, adversaries, I think you've got it. But I really like liquid for a

383
00:27:28,448 --> 00:27:31,528
temporary spot where I can, if my Albi hub needs some liquidity,

384
00:27:31,528 --> 00:27:35,708
I can put it there real quick, you know, and it's just using both side exchange.

385
00:27:35,828 --> 00:27:38,368
It's a super quick swap. I'm never doing anything on chain.

386
00:27:38,788 --> 00:27:42,048
I don't know. I just really, really like that workflow.

387
00:27:42,991 --> 00:27:46,811
Producer Jeff comes in with 11,010 sats. The first half of this episode made

388
00:27:46,811 --> 00:27:50,531
my stomach spin. Thanks for being more emotionally stable than myself to dig through all that.

389
00:27:50,891 --> 00:27:52,991
I love the FUD busting. Oh, thanks, Jeff.

390
00:27:54,451 --> 00:27:59,331
Yeah, you know, I think you're probably talking about some of those MSNBC clips.

391
00:27:59,431 --> 00:28:03,131
Those were the roughest part for me to get through just because they're so ignorant

392
00:28:03,131 --> 00:28:05,311
and, you know, they're paid good money.

393
00:28:05,771 --> 00:28:08,691
They're paid good money. I don't know. There's just something about it that

394
00:28:08,691 --> 00:28:10,871
just gets under my skin and sounds like yours too.

395
00:28:11,731 --> 00:28:15,991
Gene Everett comes in with 10,101 sats. You're doing a good job. Make it so.

396
00:28:16,891 --> 00:28:20,251
Walking it back? How so? Boost from buying the dip. I don't...

397
00:28:20,851 --> 00:28:24,791
I don't remember. I don't remember. Since I don't know what you're talking about.

398
00:28:25,391 --> 00:28:28,831
That's not possible. Nothing can do that. I'll give you a little Scotty there.

399
00:28:28,951 --> 00:28:31,351
But you know, it's probably just because you boosted it, let's see,

400
00:28:31,471 --> 00:28:36,791
on the 20th of December. And the show's been on hiatus since the holiday.

401
00:28:37,351 --> 00:28:40,451
And I am an old man with a short memory and three young kids.

402
00:28:40,891 --> 00:28:44,171
But thank you for the boost. Appreciate it. Vault Byte comes in with Rodux.

403
00:28:45,071 --> 00:28:49,291
The ultimate goal of Bitcoin is to bring greater rationality to the world's financial system.

404
00:28:49,711 --> 00:28:54,191
Then it inherently implies that central banks will print less money and liquidity will tighten.

405
00:28:54,451 --> 00:28:58,431
As a result, fiat currencies will become stronger, allowing you to buy some

406
00:28:58,431 --> 00:28:59,791
Bitcoin with fewer units of fiat.

407
00:28:59,971 --> 00:29:03,271
So when you see a drawdown, take it as a positive indicator.

408
00:29:03,431 --> 00:29:05,991
It means Bitcoin is successfully helping turn off the money printers.

409
00:29:05,991 --> 00:29:11,491
You know, speaking of the Bitcoin dad, dad and I used to kind of joke, but it's serious too.

410
00:29:11,731 --> 00:29:16,511
The only real threat to Bitcoin, probably outside of just a lack of user adoption,

411
00:29:16,951 --> 00:29:22,291
which doesn't seem to be a problem, would be a sane fiscal policy.

412
00:29:22,911 --> 00:29:29,891
Sound monetary policy around the world, responsible handling of the policy would

413
00:29:29,891 --> 00:29:31,211
actually be the greatest threat to Bitcoin.

414
00:29:32,153 --> 00:29:34,713
Thankfully, human nature, as Milton Friedman kind of pointed out,

415
00:29:35,073 --> 00:29:37,593
probably means that ain't happening, you know?

416
00:29:39,913 --> 00:29:45,653
It is what it is. Orange Bill Lawyer25 is here with 2,121 sats. This is the way.

417
00:29:46,333 --> 00:29:49,353
I agree it's a cover your ass disclaimer, and I don't think they can feasibly

418
00:29:49,353 --> 00:29:52,593
modify the supply cap. Oh, we're talking about BlackRock, right,

419
00:29:52,753 --> 00:29:53,973
and their 21 million cap.

420
00:29:54,693 --> 00:29:56,933
Unfortunately, you can't explain Bitcoin in a three-minute video.

421
00:29:57,113 --> 00:30:00,893
You got to put in the work. I also don't think most ETF buyers would appreciate

422
00:30:00,893 --> 00:30:04,453
the nuance of that disclaimer, since all their made-up money is on a system

423
00:30:04,453 --> 00:30:06,513
designed to dilute equity.

424
00:30:09,553 --> 00:30:13,993
Solid, dude. That's very good. Thank you, Orange Pill Lawyer. Nice to hear from you.

425
00:30:14,413 --> 00:30:20,573
Wine Eagle's here with 9,096 sats. It's over 9,000!

426
00:30:21,233 --> 00:30:27,053
Well, I got a Nix Bitcoin node up and running on a $75 eBay 1-liter PC.

427
00:30:27,053 --> 00:30:29,653
Oh, God, that's awesome. Well done.

428
00:30:30,013 --> 00:30:32,353
Every episode seems better than the last. Thank you for the show.

429
00:30:32,653 --> 00:30:34,733
You and I agree on most things.

430
00:30:35,493 --> 00:30:38,833
That's why I never miss news for work. Oh, that's great.

431
00:30:39,133 --> 00:30:42,913
And congrats, Wine, on the Nix Bitcoin node. I think,

432
00:30:43,093 --> 00:30:48,493
you know, I've tempted with the idea of basically starting a Bitcoin consulting

433
00:30:48,493 --> 00:30:54,913
business where part of it would be helping people build really reliable Bitcoin

434
00:30:54,913 --> 00:30:58,113
and Lightning nodes that use NixBitcoin to accomplish that.

435
00:30:58,353 --> 00:31:01,253
I really believe it could be a business.

436
00:31:01,693 --> 00:31:04,613
And part of me says that because I've witnessed it happen in El Salvador.

437
00:31:05,093 --> 00:31:09,253
And the great thing there is they tried everything first. They tried Ubuntu. They tried Arch.

438
00:31:09,753 --> 00:31:12,693
They tried like a bunch of different distributions and they ultimately landed

439
00:31:12,693 --> 00:31:18,013
on nix to deliver the most reliable nodes they could at point of sale it's a

440
00:31:18,013 --> 00:31:21,673
fascinating story i think i probably told it on the bitcoin dad and i i'm really

441
00:31:21,673 --> 00:31:24,953
i'm really impressed with the project now multiple you know almost six months

442
00:31:24,953 --> 00:31:27,413
in really liking it thank you for the boost.

443
00:31:28,318 --> 00:31:33,018
Ready, take one, four, something like that. Ready, one, take four. There we go.

444
00:31:33,578 --> 00:31:38,758
I got it, I got it. Came in with 7,500 sats. Boy, they are doing a lot with

445
00:31:38,758 --> 00:31:40,958
mayo these days. Clearing out the Albi wallet.

446
00:31:41,178 --> 00:31:44,038
I'll be back on Fountain, or whenever I get the time to set up Albi Hub.

447
00:31:44,218 --> 00:31:45,958
Thanks for the great content, as always.

448
00:31:46,158 --> 00:31:50,398
I hope so, ready one. I hope so. I'm a little scared that the boosts are going

449
00:31:50,398 --> 00:31:51,798
to drop off with the Albi Hub stuff.

450
00:31:52,578 --> 00:31:56,918
Speaking of being paranoid, Paranoid Coder comes in with 2,100 sats.

451
00:31:57,758 --> 00:32:02,018
With a curious to know your thoughts on the new BillPay feature and how it might

452
00:32:02,018 --> 00:32:03,038
compare to your Fold experience.

453
00:32:03,178 --> 00:32:06,398
I think he's linking me to Strike, which I've been following.

454
00:32:06,878 --> 00:32:11,638
So I think we're getting really, really, really spoiled now.

455
00:32:11,878 --> 00:32:15,218
Strike is a fantastic option, which is going to offer lending soon as well.

456
00:32:15,778 --> 00:32:20,658
And Fold is a great option because they have, well, A, years of doing this with

457
00:32:20,658 --> 00:32:23,418
the BillPay system, but they also offer the debit card.

458
00:32:23,598 --> 00:32:26,558
And so, like, grocery purchases you get little sats back on.

459
00:32:26,558 --> 00:32:29,358
You know gas purchases you get some sats back on and then

460
00:32:29,358 --> 00:32:32,338
they also have something called merchant boosts which is kind of kind

461
00:32:32,338 --> 00:32:35,218
of nice right like costco is one percent

462
00:32:35,218 --> 00:32:40,338
boosted others are up to like five percent some are three percent and then fold

463
00:32:40,338 --> 00:32:44,638
offers a whole range of other services too for buying and selling sats at good

464
00:32:44,638 --> 00:32:49,318
prices if you like that workflow and they offer some interesting features as

465
00:32:49,318 --> 00:32:53,678
well as auto deposit into bitcoin and doing like a percentage there but they're

466
00:32:53,678 --> 00:32:54,878
both really good services,

467
00:32:55,238 --> 00:32:58,398
and if it's something people would like a further analysis of, I could do it.

468
00:32:58,498 --> 00:33:01,958
I do have all of them right now, but it's a good time.

469
00:33:02,138 --> 00:33:05,658
And stay tuned because Bitcoin Whale has some really interesting capabilities

470
00:33:05,658 --> 00:33:07,238
in this area as well. Thanks, Paranoid.

471
00:33:07,738 --> 00:33:10,358
Appreciate the boost. Ace Ackerman's here with the Rodux.

472
00:33:11,798 --> 00:33:17,278
He's got a peak price prediction for 2025, and I like it. It's a nice round one.

473
00:33:17,798 --> 00:33:26,798
We'll see. He says the top price for 2025 is going to be $333,333.

474
00:33:26,998 --> 00:33:28,218
Never tell me the odds.

475
00:33:28,918 --> 00:33:32,498
$333,000. Woo dog.

476
00:33:34,071 --> 00:33:35,151
The real question then, I guess,

477
00:33:35,251 --> 00:33:39,671
is, Ace, what does it crash down to after that? What do I got a brace for?

478
00:33:40,651 --> 00:33:43,931
Should include that prediction as well. Might not make it spicy.

479
00:33:45,671 --> 00:33:50,491
I don't know. I think it's, we'll see. We'll see. Hey, Gene Bean's here with.

480
00:33:50,491 --> 00:33:53,371
4,270 sats. Well, I'll be dipped.

481
00:33:53,531 --> 00:33:56,911
You got me excited talking about what Nixbitcoin is, and I forgot to answer

482
00:33:56,911 --> 00:33:58,811
my own question. Oh, and forgot to answer my question.

483
00:33:59,251 --> 00:34:02,991
What app or service on Nixbitcoin should I run? It seems like I have to run

484
00:34:02,991 --> 00:34:03,971
a bunch of different options.

485
00:34:04,231 --> 00:34:06,551
There's lots of different aspects. I don't really know much about it.

486
00:34:06,771 --> 00:34:10,271
I know L&D is mentioned a lot on podcasts. Oh, well.

487
00:34:11,231 --> 00:34:15,831
You know, Gene, you might consider starting with Start9 or Umbral and getting

488
00:34:15,831 --> 00:34:18,831
a sense of the system and then going with NixBitcoin.

489
00:34:18,911 --> 00:34:22,991
I think that was beneficial for me because there's no GUI with NixBitcoin.

490
00:34:23,511 --> 00:34:27,131
And there's no curation, really. Like you have noticed, you have to do the curation.

491
00:34:27,751 --> 00:34:30,891
But you could just install BitcoinD, L&D.

492
00:34:31,831 --> 00:34:36,871
And AlbiHub and really probably be set on NixBitcoin. So I'd like to know what

493
00:34:36,871 --> 00:34:38,871
your thoughts are on that because you really could do a very minimal.

494
00:34:39,311 --> 00:34:42,071
If you're pretty much relying on AlbiHub to do a lot of your lift,

495
00:34:42,751 --> 00:34:46,951
then you could just do a real basic Nix, BitcoinD, LND, or CLN,

496
00:34:47,011 --> 00:34:48,911
or whatever. You've got a couple of different Lightning Demon options.

497
00:34:49,711 --> 00:34:51,931
And that would be very functional. I bet you that'd work really good.

498
00:34:52,471 --> 00:34:57,391
I'd love to know what you end up with. Army guys here with 15,000 sets.

499
00:35:02,251 --> 00:35:05,171
He writes, just a test because I've been trying to boost the show for the past

500
00:35:05,171 --> 00:35:07,931
few weeks with no success using the Fountain app. It keeps going through.

501
00:35:08,711 --> 00:35:12,371
If this goes through, there will be two more boosts that have my message split

502
00:35:12,371 --> 00:35:13,851
between them. Yep, I see them here.

503
00:35:14,331 --> 00:35:16,511
Oh, I am sorry to hear, Army guy, that you've been having problems.

504
00:35:16,611 --> 00:35:17,511
I haven't got any other reports.

505
00:35:17,951 --> 00:35:22,331
He says, short-time listener, first-time zapper. Thank you very much. Appreciate that.

506
00:35:23,171 --> 00:35:25,371
Love the show and hope to hear many more episodes in the future.

507
00:35:25,471 --> 00:35:28,611
A few things about the Bitcoin-backed loans was sold to note.

508
00:35:28,611 --> 00:35:33,011
Oh, first, the rates are as high as non-collateralized personal loans,

509
00:35:33,111 --> 00:35:36,991
even though you give one or two times the amount in Bitcoin to be held as collateral.

510
00:35:37,191 --> 00:35:41,971
That is true. Like, I think my interest rate is like 8% or something,

511
00:35:42,271 --> 00:35:47,431
which is kind of a deal because I think they have their regular rate was 12,

512
00:35:47,611 --> 00:35:50,391
but I got it. I got like a special 8% interest rate. You're right.

513
00:35:51,411 --> 00:35:56,131
With something as a pure, verifiable, scarce asset like Bitcoin backing a loan,

514
00:35:56,311 --> 00:35:59,711
it should be like a 2% interest loan, right? It should be super low.

515
00:35:59,851 --> 00:36:00,851
And I think it will be one day.

516
00:36:01,511 --> 00:36:04,171
Second, there seems to be no risk on the side of salt.

517
00:36:04,851 --> 00:36:08,011
Your best bet would be to take a personal loan getting just as good of a rate

518
00:36:08,011 --> 00:36:09,891
from a bank or better with none of the risk.

519
00:36:10,091 --> 00:36:13,911
Or wait until the space becomes more competitive and you can get rates like 2% or 3%.

520
00:36:14,691 --> 00:36:17,351
Unless, of course, you have issues with your credit score, in which case you

521
00:36:17,351 --> 00:36:19,731
might not be the best person to take out a loan in the first place.

522
00:36:20,171 --> 00:36:22,871
But maybe there is an example where this is beneficial. Again,

523
00:36:23,011 --> 00:36:26,491
love the content and keep up the good work. I actually think you raise a good point.

524
00:36:27,491 --> 00:36:32,691
Should someone consider just if you want to get a loan, take out a loan with the bank?

525
00:36:33,486 --> 00:36:37,846
I, first of all, I will admit I am biased against going to the bank.

526
00:36:37,866 --> 00:36:42,246
If I have the ability with my own financial tools to get access to that liquidity,

527
00:36:42,526 --> 00:36:46,766
I'm likely to take on a little more risk and maybe even pay a little bit more

528
00:36:46,766 --> 00:36:52,106
just because of the amazing capability of taking my magic internet money and

529
00:36:52,106 --> 00:36:56,586
getting a loan from it and not having to go to a bank and, you know, ask like a bitch.

530
00:36:57,206 --> 00:37:00,626
But that's, so that's probably an element to my bias to this.

531
00:37:00,626 --> 00:37:06,166
But also, I do like the idea of getting access to liquidity without a credit check.

532
00:37:06,446 --> 00:37:09,126
I think there are so many people out there.

533
00:37:09,446 --> 00:37:18,126
I mean, geez, if you looked at credit cards, debt and interest payments right now and defaults, man.

534
00:37:19,026 --> 00:37:22,026
Man, there's so many people that have got them trapped in like multiple credit

535
00:37:22,026 --> 00:37:25,866
cards or houses or whatever, or they're going through a divorce and their credit gets wrecked.

536
00:37:26,446 --> 00:37:29,806
So to have something that is separate of the credit system that is just based

537
00:37:29,806 --> 00:37:33,746
on a hard asset that you own, well, it's the tooling that the rich get.

538
00:37:34,406 --> 00:37:36,386
And now it's available to us plebs.

539
00:37:37,286 --> 00:37:40,786
So I'm excited to kind of explore it, even though you're right.

540
00:37:40,886 --> 00:37:43,586
It is early. The rates are too high. There's additional risk.

541
00:37:44,186 --> 00:37:47,726
And eventually this will be institutionalized. Eventually, I think you're right, 2%, 3%.

542
00:37:48,266 --> 00:37:51,426
It's what I would expect it to get to. And if you can wait, you probably should

543
00:37:51,426 --> 00:37:56,226
wait. But there's also the flip side of there's some OGs that have been around

544
00:37:56,226 --> 00:37:58,586
for a while that have have a stash.

545
00:37:59,246 --> 00:38:03,266
And they've been sitting on that stash for a decade plus. And they still don't

546
00:38:03,266 --> 00:38:06,706
want to sell it, but they like to get a little access to that liquidity because

547
00:38:06,706 --> 00:38:07,966
that's where they've put all of their money.

548
00:38:08,686 --> 00:38:11,646
And, you know, maybe the banks don't like the balance of their bank accounts

549
00:38:11,646 --> 00:38:13,206
or something like that. I mean, there's a lot of these scenarios.

550
00:38:13,326 --> 00:38:15,466
And I think you're going to see strike come out with something very compelling

551
00:38:15,466 --> 00:38:19,586
in this space, probably within Q1, Q2. We'll see.

552
00:38:20,286 --> 00:38:22,806
Sorry about the Troubles Army guy, but really appreciate that boost.

553
00:38:23,006 --> 00:38:25,946
Very thoughtful. Thank you for that. I really appreciate it and hope to hear

554
00:38:25,946 --> 00:38:28,026
from you soon. And any thoughts you have on my response?

555
00:38:28,846 --> 00:38:32,346
Zachelys is here with 4000Sats. Analysis mode, password 80085.

556
00:38:33,246 --> 00:38:38,246
For the IRA discussion, I agree that I don't want to lock most of my savings up in an IRA.

557
00:38:38,626 --> 00:38:41,526
I'll continue buying on River and then transferring to a cold wallet.

558
00:38:41,786 --> 00:38:45,086
In my case, I already have money in my employer's 401k.

559
00:38:45,526 --> 00:38:48,886
So I'm looking to roll that over in a Bitcoin-friendly IRA to invest a portion

560
00:38:48,886 --> 00:38:52,826
of it, Maybe like 50% in Bitcoin and the rest in traditional stocks and ETFs.

561
00:38:53,266 --> 00:38:55,046
Very sensible, Zach.

562
00:38:55,906 --> 00:38:59,286
Look very carefully at the stocks and ETFs you pick.

563
00:38:59,986 --> 00:39:04,306
And I'm not a financial advisor, but I would challenge you and boost in when

564
00:39:04,306 --> 00:39:06,726
you find it. Because I don't think you will.

565
00:39:07,246 --> 00:39:12,086
Find me a single stock or an ETF that's performed even half as good as Bitcoin.

566
00:39:12,826 --> 00:39:17,426
Bitcoin has been the number one performing asset 11 of the last 14 years now.

567
00:39:18,166 --> 00:39:19,746
I don't know anything else that does that,

568
00:39:20,712 --> 00:39:26,372
Maybe MSTR is it, but that seems like a pretty big risk for a retirement savings investment.

569
00:39:28,472 --> 00:39:32,152
Of course, I'm telling you to do Bitcoin, so I'm a jackass. Anyways,

570
00:39:32,272 --> 00:39:34,012
I'd just love to know your thoughts on that if you'd like to reply.

571
00:39:34,172 --> 00:39:36,052
And thank you for that, Busek. It's good to hear from you.

572
00:39:38,152 --> 00:39:43,292
Nakamoto's 6102 is here with 4,000 sats. I don't see BlackRock's video about

573
00:39:43,292 --> 00:39:46,172
the, quote, number of Bitcoin can be changed being that bad.

574
00:39:46,432 --> 00:39:49,132
Sure, it's a legal disclaimer about the supply cap, and it's wrong.

575
00:39:49,132 --> 00:39:51,492
But it's an easy video to share with friends and family.

576
00:39:51,772 --> 00:39:55,012
Yeah, you're right. There is some value in that. Just an easy video that is, yeah, that's true.

577
00:39:55,172 --> 00:39:58,712
He goes on to say, also coming from a name like BlackRock, most folks will not

578
00:39:58,712 --> 00:39:59,872
think we're as crazy anymore.

579
00:40:00,192 --> 00:40:03,392
It's easy to touch point. It's an easy touch point to get people thinking about

580
00:40:03,392 --> 00:40:05,672
money generally and Bitcoin specifically.

581
00:40:06,052 --> 00:40:08,492
Are there short videos out there you would prefer to share?

582
00:40:09,252 --> 00:40:11,992
It's a good point. There probably are a couple of actual shorts,

583
00:40:12,292 --> 00:40:14,072
like literal shorts, which I call tinies.

584
00:40:14,532 --> 00:40:19,672
But I think you make a really solid point in that there's brand there and wait behind that brand.

585
00:40:19,832 --> 00:40:22,392
And that brand is endorsing Bitcoin. And that brand is saying,

586
00:40:22,512 --> 00:40:24,132
hey, you should probably think about the value of money.

587
00:40:24,652 --> 00:40:28,792
And that's probably more valuable than that stupid little disclaimer they put

588
00:40:28,792 --> 00:40:30,992
on there. That really is not a worry at all.

589
00:40:31,492 --> 00:40:37,292
So yeah, solid boost. Thanks, Nakamoto6102. It is nice to hear from you.

590
00:40:38,392 --> 00:40:42,272
User 8857 is coming in hot with a boost. Coming in hot with a boost.

591
00:40:42,512 --> 00:40:48,932
9,444 sets. I don't think Bitcoin is mainstream enough for it to have affected the 2024 election.

592
00:40:49,372 --> 00:40:53,052
I think the real issue are the socioeconomic issues that most people are dealing

593
00:40:53,052 --> 00:40:56,392
with that have unheard or ignored by politicians altogether.

594
00:40:56,972 --> 00:41:00,372
That's what allowed Trump to be elected twice, even though these problems haven't

595
00:41:00,372 --> 00:41:03,712
really been addressed or actioned on, at least in the last decade.

596
00:41:04,612 --> 00:41:07,792
I think that's a little pessimistic because if the Bitcoiners didn't have an

597
00:41:07,792 --> 00:41:10,392
impact, then why did they bend the knees so much?

598
00:41:10,992 --> 00:41:13,592
And why are we seeing continued discussion about how they're going to cater

599
00:41:13,592 --> 00:41:18,232
them? And then why also have so many Bitcoiners and Bitcoin friendly folks been

600
00:41:18,232 --> 00:41:20,352
implicitly selected for Trump's cabinet?

601
00:41:21,212 --> 00:41:24,392
I don't know. Maybe the maybe it's the Trumps that are Bitcoiners. I don't think so.

602
00:41:24,532 --> 00:41:29,372
I think they're shitcoiners. But I agree as well that, you know.

603
00:41:30,561 --> 00:41:33,501
It probably wasn't as big as some of the other issues.

604
00:41:33,741 --> 00:41:39,261
He goes on to say, my 2020, my 2020, my 2025, I'm having a hard time saying that.

605
00:41:39,381 --> 00:41:45,981
My 2025 prediction is that Bitcoin will end at 70,000 for the year.

606
00:41:52,741 --> 00:41:56,301
Yeah, you might be right, especially if things get a little wonky.

607
00:41:56,301 --> 00:41:59,881
He says, I basis on nothing but feeling the hype around Trump and the likely

608
00:41:59,881 --> 00:42:02,941
crashing down as broken promises that spoil the market.

609
00:42:03,341 --> 00:42:06,541
Oh, also very pessimistic. We shall see.

610
00:42:06,881 --> 00:42:10,661
You know, the one thing I think you could really say pretty solidly about the

611
00:42:10,661 --> 00:42:15,721
previous Trump administration is that he really used the market as a barometer for his success.

612
00:42:15,721 --> 00:42:19,201
You may recall that during the original Trump administration,

613
00:42:19,201 --> 00:42:26,161
there were even end-of-day Fridays where Trump would print out the stock market

614
00:42:26,161 --> 00:42:30,581
price action for the day and sign it and send it out to some of the bankers. Do you remember this?

615
00:42:31,161 --> 00:42:35,641
Like he really gauges the success of the market as part of his presidency.

616
00:42:36,081 --> 00:42:41,321
And I think that's the one true break on some of these more wild policy ideas.

617
00:42:41,601 --> 00:42:45,161
Is if the market freaks out too hard, Trump's probably going to course correct.

618
00:42:45,921 --> 00:42:49,981
Although I could be wrong. But that's my optimistic take on your kind of pessimistic

619
00:42:49,981 --> 00:42:53,241
taste there, 88. But thanks for the boost. Things to think about, at least.

620
00:42:53,901 --> 00:42:56,941
Atone comes in with 2,222 sats. That's a road, Ducks.

621
00:42:58,181 --> 00:43:01,841
I think the unfortunate part about the El Salvador news, that is that they are

622
00:43:01,841 --> 00:43:05,741
making some changes to the Bitcoin policy, isn't so much the changes themselves

623
00:43:05,741 --> 00:43:09,181
as the fact that the IMF is twisting their arm into making these changes.

624
00:43:09,441 --> 00:43:13,241
The IMF is a predatory institution designed to exploit countries like El Salvador.

625
00:43:13,241 --> 00:43:18,201
I recommend people read Hidden Repression by Alex Gladstein to learn more about

626
00:43:18,201 --> 00:43:21,721
how the IMF operates. The book even has a Bitcoin angle.

627
00:43:21,921 --> 00:43:24,961
Yes, just go look up Alex Gladstein.

628
00:43:25,925 --> 00:43:31,065
Although, since you sent this boost on December 22nd, there's a lot of boosts

629
00:43:31,065 --> 00:43:32,465
this week because I've been gone for a couple weeks.

630
00:43:33,805 --> 00:43:35,485
Bitcoin, El Salvador just had their

631
00:43:35,485 --> 00:43:39,145
credit rating improved because of this additional funding. So we'll see.

632
00:43:39,605 --> 00:43:42,965
I'm going to definitely keep my eye on it. I fantasize about that country really

633
00:43:42,965 --> 00:43:46,505
turning things around over the next decade and having a tiny vacation cabin

634
00:43:46,505 --> 00:43:51,425
and then maybe just retiring there one day. It's a very, very, very beautiful place.

635
00:43:51,545 --> 00:43:54,985
So I hope they don't get it wrong. But I'm going to keep my eye on it.

636
00:43:55,925 --> 00:43:58,065
It's important that they get it right. Thank you for the boost.

637
00:43:58,145 --> 00:44:00,305
Chatty Mike's here with a boost, and it's a row of ducks.

638
00:44:01,245 --> 00:44:05,065
Merry Christmas and plus one for the longer shows. I really appreciate the effort.

639
00:44:05,245 --> 00:44:08,425
Well, I appreciate the value. Thank you, Chatty Mike. It's always nice to hear from you.

640
00:44:09,125 --> 00:44:14,925
Nico the Geek is here with 10,000 sets. Oh, my God. This drawer is filled with Froot Loops.

641
00:44:16,245 --> 00:44:20,885
Happy New Year, Boos. 2024 was all about ramping or revamping my cold storage

642
00:44:20,885 --> 00:44:23,505
security measures. Oh, and finally running a node. Hey, yeah.

643
00:44:23,985 --> 00:44:26,985
He says start nine is a beast. this year I'll be attempting to convert from

644
00:44:26,985 --> 00:44:29,965
exchanges to fully peer-to-peer and setting up some sort of mining rig,

645
00:44:30,185 --> 00:44:34,505
looking at BitEx I dig Gene Bean's idea of this week in Bitcoin mining pool,

646
00:44:34,545 --> 00:44:38,365
I'd definitely be interested in one, if we get one going, let me know, let's go,

647
00:44:40,225 --> 00:44:43,965
alright, so let me know how the peer-to-peer stuff goes like are you thinking

648
00:44:43,965 --> 00:44:47,625
of RoboSats I do find liquidity over there is a little tight,

649
00:44:47,865 --> 00:44:51,285
sometimes there's just no buy when I want to buy and there's no sell when I

650
00:44:51,285 --> 00:44:52,985
want to sell, I don't sell much.

651
00:44:54,498 --> 00:44:58,038
Speaking of the buy angle, I do find that to be a bit. So I'm curious what route

652
00:44:58,038 --> 00:45:00,058
you go. Maybe you want to boost in and let us know.

653
00:45:00,818 --> 00:45:07,158
Thank you for the boost. And Jin from Mateek comes in with 4,035 sats. Well, I'll be dipped.

654
00:45:07,378 --> 00:45:11,798
Hi, Chris. I'm in Europe. So I thought about what the Liz Warren Anti-Crypto

655
00:45:11,798 --> 00:45:14,138
Army does. And, you know, I just don't care about them.

656
00:45:14,398 --> 00:45:17,298
I DCA my Bitcoin anyway, and I have it in self-custody.

657
00:45:17,758 --> 00:45:21,378
I found another alternative to the Reli, or whatever it is.

658
00:45:21,578 --> 00:45:26,378
It does require KYC, but it's called Biddy.com. B-I-T-Y dot com and get bitter.

659
00:45:26,838 --> 00:45:30,758
Get B-I-T-R-R dot com. Web-based ways to buy Bitcoin.

660
00:45:32,018 --> 00:45:39,238
On running a node, currently I wait for StartOS version 0.3.6 to come out.

661
00:45:39,538 --> 00:45:41,678
Yeah, I was looking into that. It does look like a really good release.

662
00:45:42,238 --> 00:45:44,998
He says, in 2025, I'm definitely going to run one in the meantime.

663
00:45:45,298 --> 00:45:47,258
I had to learn how to run a node another way.

664
00:45:48,078 --> 00:45:50,778
Well, there you go. He says you could check out Ritzvall.com.

665
00:45:51,238 --> 00:45:54,118
Well, look at you. You got all the links. Thank you very much.

666
00:45:54,818 --> 00:45:58,438
Appreciate the boost, Jen. It's nice to hear from you. Mix is here with 5,000

667
00:45:58,438 --> 00:46:00,618
sats. That's a Jar Jar boost. Use a boost.

668
00:46:01,338 --> 00:46:05,218
I'm not concerned about BlackRock at all. I'm glad this growing concern is out

669
00:46:05,218 --> 00:46:08,838
there, though, because people need to not buy ETFs. They should hold the real thing.

670
00:46:09,958 --> 00:46:13,118
Well said. Well said. That's the whole point of Bitcoin. Thanks,

671
00:46:13,178 --> 00:46:16,518
Chris. I get my information on the show that I don't see anywhere else.

672
00:46:17,018 --> 00:46:19,018
And it's great to see that we're adding to those node runners.

673
00:46:19,178 --> 00:46:20,578
I noticed that. Isn't that?

674
00:46:21,098 --> 00:46:25,478
Isn't that great to see? Thanks, Mix. Appreciate the boost. Okay.

675
00:46:26,758 --> 00:46:29,218
Amorphous age. Nah? No?

676
00:46:31,218 --> 00:46:35,098
Amorphous age. Well, uh... I think I got it.

677
00:46:35,258 --> 00:46:40,058
I think I got it. Thank you. Thank you. And they sent 4,444 sats.

678
00:46:40,218 --> 00:46:41,738
That's a big duck. Ah, fight!

679
00:46:42,118 --> 00:46:44,598
He didn't have a boost go through last time, so he sent it again.

680
00:46:44,698 --> 00:46:48,218
While I do understand your saltiness on the FUD episode, I appreciate you standing up.

681
00:46:48,318 --> 00:46:52,098
I think there's a downside to fighting and arguing. when it gives too much publicity

682
00:46:52,098 --> 00:46:55,178
to haters and fosters aggressive environment around Bitcoin.

683
00:46:55,618 --> 00:46:59,298
Expanding this energy on explaining onboarding Bitcoin interested people is more useful.

684
00:46:59,518 --> 00:47:02,958
Just ignore the haters. That being said, I appreciate your explanations in setting

685
00:47:02,958 --> 00:47:05,818
up the context for newcomers. Yeah, I think that's the balance right there.

686
00:47:06,938 --> 00:47:11,638
And, you know, helping people kind of mentally fortify themselves against the

687
00:47:11,638 --> 00:47:14,138
onslaught of things that people repeat over and over again until,

688
00:47:14,378 --> 00:47:17,558
you know, you just, you hope they hope it becomes true.

689
00:47:17,918 --> 00:47:22,278
On the topic of gifting Bitcoin, I would not force Bitcoin onto people this way.

690
00:47:22,758 --> 00:47:27,258
When I talk to people about Bitcoin, they seem semi-interested. And then I just shut up.

691
00:47:27,478 --> 00:47:32,998
We shouldn't force our interest on other people. However, if people are interested, I'm happy to share.

692
00:47:33,478 --> 00:47:37,398
Yeah, I think I pretty much follow that. I generally don't bring it up.

693
00:47:37,478 --> 00:47:42,058
I've once or twice brought it up to family members recently, and it wasn't great.

694
00:47:43,878 --> 00:47:47,698
So, you know, I'm kind of with you on that one. Thank you for the boost.

695
00:47:48,764 --> 00:47:51,764
I saw there's a bunch of other ones on the below 2,000 sat cutoff that we do

696
00:47:51,764 --> 00:47:54,364
for time, including a couple of new ones in there.

697
00:47:54,484 --> 00:47:57,284
Thank you, everybody, who boosted them below the 2,000 sat cutoff as well.

698
00:47:57,964 --> 00:48:00,584
And I do read all of them, and I keep them in the notes. Also,

699
00:48:00,664 --> 00:48:05,144
shout out to all of you who stream sats. 52 of you streamed sats this week.

700
00:48:05,384 --> 00:48:10,804
And collectively, you helped the show stack 123,484 sats.

701
00:48:11,204 --> 00:48:14,864
And you combine that with all the boosters that we had. the grand total for

702
00:48:14,864 --> 00:48:17,564
the show this week, which represents a couple of weeks of shows,

703
00:48:17,664 --> 00:48:21,424
or no, there was no show in there. So it's a couple of weeks since the last show.

704
00:48:21,744 --> 00:48:25,364
The total is 410,643 sats.

705
00:48:27,944 --> 00:48:32,064
This is a value for value podcast. So if you got some value from the analysis,

706
00:48:33,124 --> 00:48:36,084
or the community, please consider supporting the show with a boost.

707
00:48:36,504 --> 00:48:39,664
The easiest way is Fountain, but there's lots of options out there from all

708
00:48:39,664 --> 00:48:41,464
the way to a self-hosted sovereign stack.

709
00:48:41,464 --> 00:48:45,904
You can find a list of apps at podcastapps.com and of course you can breeze

710
00:48:46,304 --> 00:48:50,764
and not switch apps that's B-R-E-E-Z just make it breezy and you don't have

711
00:48:50,764 --> 00:48:55,124
to switch podcast apps you can just boost with breeze which is a lightning node in your pocket,

712
00:48:55,584 --> 00:48:57,964
there you have it thank you everybody who boosted in,

713
00:48:58,444 --> 00:49:01,824
really appreciate it it's so nice to be back and it's nice to be greeted with

714
00:49:01,824 --> 00:49:04,164
a bunch of great boosts let's get back into it.

715
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:16,400
Music.

716
00:49:16,248 --> 00:49:19,588
I had a call with the Bitcoin well, and I want to tell you a bit about it because

717
00:49:19,588 --> 00:49:22,348
I didn't know a lot about them. This is not an ad.

718
00:49:24,108 --> 00:49:26,788
I learned about the Bitcoin well from the audience, actually.

719
00:49:27,468 --> 00:49:30,868
During a meetup in Toronto, I was talking to a couple of different listeners,

720
00:49:30,888 --> 00:49:34,588
and they said, you know, we don't really get access to River or this and that,

721
00:49:34,708 --> 00:49:36,868
you know, but we do have a company you should check out. It's a great way to

722
00:49:36,868 --> 00:49:38,448
stack sats, and it's called the Bitcoin well.

723
00:49:39,008 --> 00:49:41,828
And it turns out, of course, the Bitcoin well is a Canadian company that have

724
00:49:41,828 --> 00:49:47,388
been around for a bit, and they have features for the Canadian users I never

725
00:49:47,388 --> 00:49:50,708
thought were possible and we'll probably never see from a United States exchange,

726
00:49:51,208 --> 00:49:52,968
except for maybe the Bitcoin well one day.

727
00:49:53,368 --> 00:49:56,108
I'll tell you about some of those in a moment. But it turns out they have been

728
00:49:56,108 --> 00:49:59,148
rolling out features to the US going on for a couple of years now.

729
00:49:59,648 --> 00:50:03,308
And from a high level, what I like about what the Bitcoin well is doing and

730
00:50:03,308 --> 00:50:07,508
why I think it's worth talking about on this show is they don't host a wallet at all.

731
00:50:08,408 --> 00:50:11,648
It's straight to your self-custody wallet. Every buy and sell.

732
00:50:12,128 --> 00:50:15,768
And this is so brilliant because you just go self-custody from the start.

733
00:50:16,388 --> 00:50:19,868
You never have to like transfer later on and figure that out.

734
00:50:20,348 --> 00:50:22,548
When you buy the Bitcoin, you

735
00:50:22,548 --> 00:50:26,608
either put in your Lightning wallet or your on-chain wallet and it goes.

736
00:50:27,388 --> 00:50:30,328
And their on-chain can be batched if you want, which means you do have to wait,

737
00:50:30,348 --> 00:50:31,788
but then it means there's no fees.

738
00:50:31,968 --> 00:50:35,588
And of course the Lightning is instant. You can have multiple wallets in there.

739
00:50:35,708 --> 00:50:40,588
So I have, for example, my AlbiHub, LNURL address in there, and I have my fountain.

740
00:50:41,048 --> 00:50:43,888
And so if I just want to put 100,000 sats on my fountain wallet,

741
00:50:44,028 --> 00:50:45,268
it's just, it's in the dropdown.

742
00:50:45,788 --> 00:50:49,948
Buy the sats, dropdown, send. It never stays on their systems.

743
00:50:50,988 --> 00:50:53,808
You really can't appreciate this until you see it.

744
00:50:54,248 --> 00:50:59,328
And in Canada, they have features like, if you have sats, say in your AlbiHub,

745
00:50:59,588 --> 00:51:04,128
you can zap them to your checking account from your lightning wallet.

746
00:51:04,348 --> 00:51:07,608
You can zap them to your checking account. Boom, they're just right there.

747
00:51:08,128 --> 00:51:11,528
You know, I love that. I love that they have like just lightning integrated

748
00:51:11,528 --> 00:51:15,348
for me because it means when I withdraw, I just go right over to Bolts,

749
00:51:15,788 --> 00:51:19,788
swap it to Liquid, never leave an on-chain footprint, never pay an on-chain fee.

750
00:51:20,468 --> 00:51:26,868
In both the U.S. and in Canada, they have bill pay, which I have yet to use.

751
00:51:27,208 --> 00:51:30,208
But if you've got a stash of Bitcoin and you've got some bills you got to pay,

752
00:51:30,248 --> 00:51:33,748
or if you're doing what I think is going to be a more and more common trend

753
00:51:33,748 --> 00:51:37,128
in 2025, you're taking your whole paycheck in Bitcoin.

754
00:51:37,628 --> 00:51:40,488
And then you're putting your day-to-day expenses on a credit card.

755
00:51:40,488 --> 00:51:43,228
And then you're paying that whole credit card off at the end of the month,

756
00:51:43,748 --> 00:51:45,228
you could use your Bitcoin stash for that.

757
00:51:45,488 --> 00:51:49,908
But with the Bitcoin well, what's unique about their bill pay is you can do

758
00:51:49,908 --> 00:51:50,868
it from your Lightning wallet.

759
00:51:51,951 --> 00:51:55,651
Right? That's just crazy. And they also offer like a direct deposit that auto

760
00:51:55,651 --> 00:51:57,651
converts. You set the percent you want in Bitcoin.

761
00:51:59,071 --> 00:52:04,251
Your check comes in. They convert whatever amount you set into Bitcoin and immediately

762
00:52:04,251 --> 00:52:06,671
send it to your Lightning wallet or your on-chain address.

763
00:52:07,471 --> 00:52:11,331
And then the rest goes to cash and you just put it out in your bank account.

764
00:52:11,691 --> 00:52:14,351
They make it really smooth to move between the bank account too.

765
00:52:14,931 --> 00:52:17,631
Of course, here in the States, you know, ACH is only as fast as it is.

766
00:52:18,051 --> 00:52:21,991
But you just, the idea is brilliant because you don't ever have to worry about their security.

767
00:52:22,351 --> 00:52:24,231
You don't have to worry about their proof of reserve.

768
00:52:25,511 --> 00:52:28,551
You are the custody. I just think that's really great.

769
00:52:28,651 --> 00:52:31,551
So I had a call with Conrad Fitzpatrick from the Bitcoin well.

770
00:52:31,711 --> 00:52:33,691
Conrad's been a Bitcoin analyst since like 2018.

771
00:52:34,531 --> 00:52:37,851
I think he comes with an economics background. I will link to one of his pieces

772
00:52:37,851 --> 00:52:43,931
he's written introducing a sovereignty guide for Bitcoiners and using the Bitcoin

773
00:52:43,931 --> 00:52:45,531
well. I'll put a link in the show notes if you're interested.

774
00:52:45,991 --> 00:52:50,051
But I was impressed by both Conrad and the Bitcoin Well. I feel like they're a pretty solid company.

775
00:52:50,231 --> 00:52:53,251
They've focused on a lot of features around Bitcoin and Lightning,

776
00:52:53,471 --> 00:52:56,971
and they don't have to worry about the Bitcoin storage infrastructure.

777
00:52:56,971 --> 00:53:03,331
So they can really build services, and they take advantage of the programmability of Bitcoin.

778
00:53:03,871 --> 00:53:07,271
So it's a lot of the upside of custodial services, but you're the custodian

779
00:53:07,271 --> 00:53:11,691
because you have a way to buy and sell and move between accounts, but it's your wallet.

780
00:53:12,351 --> 00:53:17,491
That you have a 1.2% spread. I'll say that again, a 1.2% spread.

781
00:53:17,611 --> 00:53:20,811
So that's how they make their money, which seems like a pretty reasonable rate.

782
00:53:21,511 --> 00:53:26,071
And it's a super smooth path to go cash to sats or sats to cash,

783
00:53:26,371 --> 00:53:28,451
especially in Canada, but even here in the States.

784
00:53:29,011 --> 00:53:34,071
And I think the bottom line is your keys are always under your control because

785
00:53:34,071 --> 00:53:36,251
you're doing the custody, whatever setup you want.

786
00:53:36,731 --> 00:53:39,531
And you can have multiple wallets. So like me, like I said, I've got multiple

787
00:53:39,531 --> 00:53:40,411
Lightning wallets in there.

788
00:53:40,931 --> 00:53:43,531
It's really cool i like it a lot and i

789
00:53:43,531 --> 00:53:46,411
like the people behind it so that's the bitcoin well i do have an affiliate

790
00:53:46,411 --> 00:53:49,671
link in the show notes they have like a a bitcoin

791
00:53:49,671 --> 00:53:54,791
wishing well i think you also you also get extra points and sats it's a system

792
00:53:54,791 --> 00:53:58,831
and really not the main reason i'm talking about this but i do have that availability

793
00:53:58,831 --> 00:54:02,471
it's probably how i'm going to be stacking my sats going forward i like river

794
00:54:02,471 --> 00:54:08,151
a lot and i could see you know maybe one day having a small cash position in the river

795
00:54:08,511 --> 00:54:11,011
savings account where you get 3.8% interest in sats.

796
00:54:11,611 --> 00:54:15,451
And then, like I said, I would smash buy if, say, we had a big dip.

797
00:54:15,651 --> 00:54:19,131
I could see that strategy. But for a DCA strategy or my day-to-day,

798
00:54:19,251 --> 00:54:20,791
hey, I want to top off my fountain wallet.

799
00:54:21,011 --> 00:54:24,331
I want to add some sats to AlbiHub so I can go around and zap some folks.

800
00:54:24,831 --> 00:54:29,311
Oh, man, Bitcoin will is great for that. And then if you want to do a serious

801
00:54:29,311 --> 00:54:33,231
buy, they do have an over-the-counter service for big purchases.

802
00:54:33,451 --> 00:54:36,411
You're going to make you know a big investment they've got like a white glove

803
00:54:36,411 --> 00:54:40,531
service for that too but the still kind of same custody setup it's really a

804
00:54:40,531 --> 00:54:44,131
good idea I really think it's a good idea and I want to see more Bitcoin services.

805
00:54:44,771 --> 00:54:49,691
Built like this there's really no reason they can't do this and so I'm,

806
00:54:50,196 --> 00:54:54,276
Probably how I'm going to recommend most people stack sats is the Bitcoin well,

807
00:54:54,296 --> 00:54:58,496
just because that focus on self-custody and making it so damn smooth and the

808
00:54:58,496 --> 00:55:00,276
top tier lightning support.

809
00:55:00,616 --> 00:55:04,036
Love it all. And if you do want to use on chain, you can batch it.

810
00:55:04,396 --> 00:55:07,016
So you don't have to pay fees, even though right now fees are pretty low.

811
00:55:07,356 --> 00:55:10,836
So that's my call to Bitcoin well. I walked away really impressed.

812
00:55:10,996 --> 00:55:14,116
It's nice to see another really great company in this space.

813
00:55:20,296 --> 00:55:24,596
I want to take a moment now and review the Jade and BitKey.

814
00:55:24,916 --> 00:55:28,316
So Blockstream makes the Jade and they just announced the Jade Plus.

815
00:55:28,756 --> 00:55:32,136
And of course, Block makes BitKey.

816
00:55:32,456 --> 00:55:37,036
Now, they're both pretty advanced self-custody solutions when you compare it

817
00:55:37,036 --> 00:55:39,756
to, say, leaving your coins on Coinbase.

818
00:55:40,016 --> 00:55:44,136
But they're not as complicated, perhaps, as, say, something like a cold card.

819
00:55:44,276 --> 00:55:48,576
They're kind of in the middle there. And the BitKey really is the closest to

820
00:55:48,576 --> 00:55:53,296
noob-friendly you could probably possibly get with the state of technology right

821
00:55:53,296 --> 00:55:55,376
now. I'm not going to call this a comprehensive review.

822
00:55:55,916 --> 00:55:59,516
I've only had a limited time experience with both these. Over the holidays,

823
00:55:59,516 --> 00:56:02,756
I bought these for family members and set these up for a few family members.

824
00:56:03,116 --> 00:56:06,476
But I will follow up on the show if there's any notable developments after long-term

825
00:56:06,476 --> 00:56:08,616
use. But here, let's start with the BitKey.

826
00:56:09,256 --> 00:56:11,656
So here's some things I like about the BitKey.

827
00:56:12,436 --> 00:56:15,316
The app is actually really great. The wallet app, the setup,

828
00:56:15,476 --> 00:56:18,916
it's very smooth. The way you use NFC is very clever.

829
00:56:19,396 --> 00:56:23,356
The device itself feels excellent. It has no screen. I don't like that,

830
00:56:23,416 --> 00:56:24,776
but the device itself feels excellent.

831
00:56:24,976 --> 00:56:28,536
You do an NFC tap to talk from the wallet to the device. It's brilliant.

832
00:56:29,156 --> 00:56:33,796
The recovery contact is really straightforward. I was able to set myself up as a recovery contact.

833
00:56:33,876 --> 00:56:39,276
So if they ever, you know, lost the phone or lost the bit key or lost both,

834
00:56:39,716 --> 00:56:43,356
there is actually a recovery route. There is no seed phrase though.

835
00:56:44,176 --> 00:56:48,796
There's no seed phrase. That's not how you recover this. Block is involved here.

836
00:56:49,456 --> 00:56:53,636
It's very much a product for people who like a company behind this kind of device,

837
00:56:53,796 --> 00:56:54,916
maybe even a support email.

838
00:56:55,636 --> 00:57:00,796
And it does require block servers to be online to operate fully functionally.

839
00:57:00,956 --> 00:57:02,876
There are ways to get your keys out.

840
00:57:03,056 --> 00:57:06,716
And, you know, if block were to go out of business or their servers were offline

841
00:57:06,716 --> 00:57:09,756
or something, you could basically break glass and move to a new wallet.

842
00:57:09,876 --> 00:57:11,416
You can't use the setup anymore.

843
00:57:11,996 --> 00:57:15,616
That's just an inherent aspect of this. Block's a pretty solid company.

844
00:57:15,816 --> 00:57:18,296
It's got Jack Dorsey behind it. This is a really solid device.

845
00:57:18,416 --> 00:57:21,296
I think they've got a multi-year plan here. So I don't think that's a big threat.

846
00:57:23,010 --> 00:57:26,930
When I am looking at hardware wallets, I'm looking at stuff that,

847
00:57:26,930 --> 00:57:28,770
you know, I want to last for a decade.

848
00:57:29,310 --> 00:57:33,570
And so with that in mind, I'm not a big fan of the fact that this thing has a built-in battery.

849
00:57:34,230 --> 00:57:38,090
It is what it is, but it's got a built-in battery. That battery is probably

850
00:57:38,090 --> 00:57:39,530
going to last three years, right?

851
00:57:40,130 --> 00:57:43,410
I think for a BitKey, that's probably okay. You know, this is great for,

852
00:57:43,470 --> 00:57:48,090
say, a kid who's young, but their, you know, their life revolves around mobile.

853
00:57:48,090 --> 00:57:51,310
You want something where they can safely self-custody their Bitcoin,

854
00:57:51,310 --> 00:57:54,690
where if they lose either device, they're not screwed, and maybe they can move

855
00:57:54,690 --> 00:57:56,810
to something else five years later.

856
00:57:57,850 --> 00:58:04,990
It does require either iOS cloud storage on iOS or Google Drive storage on Android.

857
00:58:05,150 --> 00:58:06,690
That's how it does some of its backups.

858
00:58:06,890 --> 00:58:10,690
It encrypts the key locally and then backs it up to the cloud storage.

859
00:58:11,170 --> 00:58:15,730
So something to consider is you have to have iCloud services or you have to

860
00:58:15,730 --> 00:58:19,170
have Google services for that. I think that's another thing that I put in the

861
00:58:19,170 --> 00:58:20,090
don't like column for me.

862
00:58:20,590 --> 00:58:25,970
But, you know, it's a very smooth device that is almost impossible to screw

863
00:58:25,970 --> 00:58:28,370
up and almost impossible to lose your Bitcoin.

864
00:58:28,590 --> 00:58:31,150
So for that, that's a huge benchmark for self-custody.

865
00:58:31,830 --> 00:58:35,370
But I don't think it's for people that probably listen to this show for the

866
00:58:35,370 --> 00:58:38,370
most part. Now, the Jade, let me talk about the Jade wallet.

867
00:58:38,870 --> 00:58:42,790
Now, the Jade Plus just came out, but the OG Jade is still great and cheaper.

868
00:58:43,210 --> 00:58:46,970
I think the Jade Plus is like 130 U.S. greenbacks or something like that.

869
00:58:47,090 --> 00:58:52,170
And the OG Jade, the old Jade now, like 80 bucks now.

870
00:58:52,590 --> 00:58:55,690
The old Jade definitely has the worst camera and a smaller screen.

871
00:58:55,970 --> 00:58:58,070
But in my opinion, that doesn't really matter.

872
00:58:58,550 --> 00:59:05,030
It is a more traditional wallet experience than the BitKey. You can do air-gapped. You can do via USB.

873
00:59:05,430 --> 00:59:09,670
You can do via Bluetooth if you're on a mobile device. And the Jade wallet is

874
00:59:09,670 --> 00:59:15,030
compatible with Spectre, Sparrow, Nunchuck, Blue Wallet, Electrum, Keeper.

875
00:59:15,810 --> 00:59:19,550
But Jade really sings with the green wallet from Blockstream.

876
00:59:19,910 --> 00:59:23,090
And green is a really good wallet.

877
00:59:23,730 --> 00:59:28,310
I've been kind of sleeping on green. It's got a nice UI. It's open source.

878
00:59:28,730 --> 00:59:32,490
They got mobile versions. They got Win, Mac, Linux desktop versions.

879
00:59:32,770 --> 00:59:37,870
Supports on-chain. Supports Liquid all in one app. You can secure both with Jade.

880
00:59:38,190 --> 00:59:40,830
The mobile app supports Lightning. The desktop will eventually.

881
00:59:41,290 --> 00:59:44,790
You can create the wallet on one device, and then you can have the green wallet

882
00:59:44,790 --> 00:59:49,190
with a watch wallet where it can't do anything but receive and view the balance.

883
00:59:49,190 --> 00:59:51,910
It can't spend at all, but you can have multiple watch wallets.

884
00:59:52,870 --> 00:59:55,950
And then, even if you don't have the Jade, they still offer a lot of great ways,

885
00:59:55,950 --> 00:59:59,530
including just using two-factor authentication apps to secure your stack.

886
00:59:59,770 --> 01:00:03,830
I've really started to like the green wallet.

887
01:00:04,170 --> 01:00:09,150
I think people should not sleep on the green wallet. And Jade itself is open source.

888
01:00:09,790 --> 01:00:13,190
Everything about it, really. But including the firmware, it's fully open source.

889
01:00:13,490 --> 01:00:15,690
The hardware design, fully open source.

890
01:00:16,310 --> 01:00:20,690
The software associated with the Jade wallet, including the green app, open source.

891
01:00:21,330 --> 01:00:24,190
The build process for the Jade wallet itself is deterministic,

892
01:00:24,330 --> 01:00:27,430
which means any developer can audit the code and verify that the final software

893
01:00:27,430 --> 01:00:30,710
doesn't contain any hidden features or patches or vulnerabilities.

894
01:00:31,250 --> 01:00:35,550
And it uses, and this is the part you need to know about, it uses a PIN lockout

895
01:00:35,550 --> 01:00:39,570
server, which is kind of part of their main security premise.

896
01:00:39,830 --> 01:00:44,250
It is all open source, and users should eventually have the option to run their

897
01:00:44,250 --> 01:00:45,570
own lockout server in the future.

898
01:00:45,990 --> 01:00:50,910
And the device can work without this PIN server. But this PIN server,

899
01:00:51,090 --> 01:00:56,050
which is run by a distributed set of Blockstream servers, is sort of central

900
01:00:56,050 --> 01:00:57,770
for the signing process when you use a PIN.

901
01:00:58,150 --> 01:01:01,790
But it makes the device itself more resilient to compromise and manipulation

902
01:01:01,790 --> 01:01:04,250
because not all the credentials are there.

903
01:01:04,550 --> 01:01:06,850
It's part of their overall security design.

904
01:01:07,170 --> 01:01:13,570
It allows the device to remain fully open source, but still prevent people from

905
01:01:13,570 --> 01:01:15,310
learning how to do physical key extraction.

906
01:01:15,630 --> 01:01:17,410
Can you see the catch-22 there?

907
01:01:18,330 --> 01:01:21,290
So the private keys, my understanding, please boost in if I'm wrong,

908
01:01:21,370 --> 01:01:25,970
but my understanding is the private keys on the Jade wallet are not stored on the device itself,

909
01:01:25,970 --> 01:01:31,170
but they're securely generated and then stored on a blind Oracle server accessible

910
01:01:31,170 --> 01:01:37,190
only through your PIN and a special QR code scanning during transactions if you use the QR workflow.

911
01:01:37,730 --> 01:01:40,990
So it's a decentralized set of servers, they say, for the signing process.

912
01:01:41,390 --> 01:01:44,890
They claim it makes it more resilient to server compromise or manipulation compared

913
01:01:44,890 --> 01:01:46,290
to like a single server solution.

914
01:01:46,790 --> 01:01:52,050
You don't have to use it but it does make things a lot smoother you do have

915
01:01:52,050 --> 01:01:56,770
offline key storage the Jade doesn't require the internet there are ways to use it fully air gapped,

916
01:01:57,550 --> 01:02:02,530
but because it is all open source this was their solution they've also made

917
01:02:02,530 --> 01:02:06,390
it possible for users to verify the device was produced by Blockstream there's ways you can,

918
01:02:07,290 --> 01:02:11,530
essentially authenticate and verify the device I think collectively it does

919
01:02:11,530 --> 01:02:17,190
make the Jade a pretty secure option and it's nice it's really easy to use especially with green.

920
01:02:18,500 --> 01:02:21,720
But there are a couple of things I don't like. It has a battery again.

921
01:02:22,140 --> 01:02:25,520
My research confirms the device can still work off of USB-C,

922
01:02:25,680 --> 01:02:27,360
even with a totally dead battery.

923
01:02:27,660 --> 01:02:31,160
And they expect the battery to last three-ish years.

924
01:02:31,560 --> 01:02:35,640
But my concern here is, could this battery swell one day?

925
01:02:36,180 --> 01:02:39,380
I would just prefer a battery-free version of this device.

926
01:02:39,540 --> 01:02:45,440
I want something where I can be a good little hodler and it sits somewhere securely for a decade.

927
01:02:45,860 --> 01:02:48,480
Right? Because green makes that possible with the watch wallets.

928
01:02:48,500 --> 01:02:51,160
Where you can still generate new receiving addresses.

929
01:02:51,420 --> 01:02:54,360
You can still view your balance. You just can't withdraw.

930
01:02:54,980 --> 01:02:58,020
So I want to be a good little hodler and I want to put this thing away for 10 years.

931
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,420
Well, what happens when I come back and like the battery is swollen up and exploded?

932
01:03:01,900 --> 01:03:05,720
Is that a possibility? I just don't know. I guess that's something I'll find

933
01:03:05,720 --> 01:03:09,420
out with my long-term usage of the Jade.

934
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:12,940
I'll check back in with the BitKey user and the Jade user. And I'm going to,

935
01:03:13,080 --> 01:03:18,240
I think I'm going to buy myself a Jade Pro eventually and, you know,

936
01:03:18,280 --> 01:03:20,480
get a little more hands-on, a little bit more experience with it.

937
01:03:20,560 --> 01:03:24,840
But I really was impressed with the BitKey for new users and people that are,

938
01:03:24,900 --> 01:03:30,260
you know, looking for a real safe way to get off of an exchange or something

939
01:03:30,260 --> 01:03:32,980
like that, but they're very intimidated by cold storage.

940
01:03:33,320 --> 01:03:37,760
I think the Jade sits in very nicely between the BitKey and the cold card.

941
01:03:38,240 --> 01:03:41,520
Cold card's still a great champ because the cold card doesn't require any kind

942
01:03:41,520 --> 01:03:45,800
of key signing servers, doesn't have a battery built into it,

943
01:03:45,880 --> 01:03:52,120
right? Like the cold card still is sort of, in my opinion, a serious contender.

944
01:03:52,740 --> 01:03:55,620
But I've heard from some people that it's a little intimidating to use.

945
01:03:55,740 --> 01:03:59,140
I don't find the Jade at all intimidating. I sat down and started to understand it immediately.

946
01:04:00,020 --> 01:04:03,100
I think people will really like it. And I think the Jade Plus,

947
01:04:03,260 --> 01:04:04,720
or I think maybe they're calling it the Plus. I don't know. Yeah,

948
01:04:04,820 --> 01:04:05,740
the Jade Plus, not the Pro.

949
01:04:06,420 --> 01:04:10,440
It looks like an even better device. So there you go. That's my take on the big key and the Jade.

950
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:22,640
Music.

951
01:04:21,280 --> 01:04:24,740
I got some updates for you. We'll start with the bad news and then we'll end

952
01:04:24,740 --> 01:04:26,680
with the good news. Coinbase...

953
01:04:27,629 --> 01:04:30,289
Has apparently given up all the goods on one of their users.

954
01:04:30,469 --> 01:04:35,429
And this user has been sentenced to two years for Bitcoin tax fraud.

955
01:04:35,769 --> 01:04:40,689
An early Bitcoin investor and Coinbase user named Frank Richard was sentenced

956
01:04:40,689 --> 01:04:45,029
for two years in prison last month for falsely underreporting capital gains

957
01:04:45,029 --> 01:04:48,389
linked to $3.7 million worth of Bitcoin sales.

958
01:04:48,669 --> 01:04:53,249
He's been ordered to hand over his private keys and to allow U.S.

959
01:04:53,309 --> 01:04:58,829
Officials to access all of his digital assets currently valued at $124 million.

960
01:04:59,929 --> 01:05:07,809
Frank began investing in Bitcoin in 2011. He reportedly acquired 1,366 Bitcoin through Coinbase.

961
01:05:08,389 --> 01:05:15,329
In 2015, when Bitcoin peaked at approximately $495, he then used some of the

962
01:05:15,329 --> 01:05:18,389
proceeds to purchase a park, or I mean a home in Park City, Utah.

963
01:05:18,869 --> 01:05:23,509
Frank then concealed some of his profits from his sales between 2017 and 2019

964
01:05:23,509 --> 01:05:27,389
by providing false information to his accountant, claiming he had purchased

965
01:05:27,389 --> 01:05:30,749
the Bitcoins at a higher price than he actually did.

966
01:05:31,069 --> 01:05:34,729
He now owes the government around $1 million in restitution from the criminal

967
01:05:34,729 --> 01:05:39,389
case and must provide any physical devices, along with any public keys,

968
01:05:39,649 --> 01:05:44,849
private keys, seed phrases, or passphrases used to store his coins.

969
01:05:45,329 --> 01:05:50,349
This is by the ruling of the U.S. District Judge Robert Pittman on Monday of

970
01:05:50,349 --> 01:05:52,609
this week in a federal court in Austin, Texas.

971
01:05:53,509 --> 01:06:00,429
Prosecutors have requested the judge to force Frank to reveal the location of at least 1,287 Bitcoin.

972
01:06:00,649 --> 01:06:07,969
He moved in a 2020 mixing service, which are now worth over $124 million after

973
01:06:07,969 --> 01:06:09,429
more than doubling in value last year.

974
01:06:10,029 --> 01:06:12,889
I mean, the thing that really jumps out to me in this story is,

975
01:06:12,949 --> 01:06:14,249
first of all, I feel really bad for this guy.

976
01:06:14,629 --> 01:06:18,909
I mean, you have to appreciate that when this guy was balling in and buying

977
01:06:18,909 --> 01:06:24,989
1,366 Bitcoin in 2011, the entire world was telling him he was an idiot.

978
01:06:25,529 --> 01:06:28,689
His government was telling him it was magic internet money that wasn't worth

979
01:06:28,689 --> 01:06:32,769
anything, right? There wasn't the clarity that we have now.

980
01:06:33,369 --> 01:06:36,489
So I think we have to keep that context in mind when we talk about this case.

981
01:06:36,709 --> 01:06:39,729
But we know all of this. We know the amounts. We know where he transferred.

982
01:06:39,829 --> 01:06:43,949
We know we transferred it to a mixing address because Coinbase has all of that information.

983
01:06:44,509 --> 01:06:48,229
And that's the other thing I take away from this. What I don't understand is

984
01:06:48,229 --> 01:06:49,729
why he can't just pay restitution.

985
01:06:49,929 --> 01:06:52,789
I don't understand why they then get to seize all of his Bitcoin.

986
01:06:54,168 --> 01:06:58,848
Don't like that. And you got to wonder that if we make a strategic reserve out

987
01:06:58,848 --> 01:07:02,488
of our seized Bitcoin, if that doesn't incentivize law agencies to seize more

988
01:07:02,488 --> 01:07:04,968
Bitcoin. Okay, one last bad story.

989
01:07:05,928 --> 01:07:09,948
There is a Bitcoin policy in the UK that has been released.

990
01:07:10,168 --> 01:07:15,148
The crypto asset service providers' due diligence and reporting requirements for 2025.

991
01:07:16,068 --> 01:07:20,368
What is being proposed? Under the crypto asset reporting framework,

992
01:07:20,528 --> 01:07:23,928
or CARF, it is proposed that tax authorities' world,

993
01:07:25,028 --> 01:07:28,848
Worldwide will gather and have access to information on cryptocurrency transactions,

994
01:07:29,148 --> 01:07:33,148
allegedly to combat tax evasion and ensure compliance with tax laws.

995
01:07:34,408 --> 01:07:38,448
Worldwide. Worldwide tax laws. So that's a stinker. I'll have links to that, more information.

996
01:07:41,148 --> 01:07:45,288
Man, talk about a bad idea. Talk about a bad idea. And then here's some good

997
01:07:45,288 --> 01:07:46,688
news for you to wrap up the updates.

998
01:07:47,128 --> 01:07:50,908
AlbiHub 1.13.0 is out. It's got some new apps, some nice new features.

999
01:07:51,108 --> 01:07:54,868
Check out the App Store. an auto-unlock feature for self-hosted hubs,

1000
01:07:55,188 --> 01:07:58,468
extra information about pending closed channels, and some security improvements

1001
01:07:58,468 --> 01:08:00,588
for isolated apps and budgeting.

1002
01:08:00,848 --> 01:08:06,548
Very nice to see AlbiHub 1.13.0. And then last but not least in our update,

1003
01:08:06,728 --> 01:08:13,468
we have news about a new 45-megawatt Bitcoin mine that is opening in Memphis.

1004
01:08:13,688 --> 01:08:18,768
Aum, a cryptocurrency mining facility, is now under construction on South Mendenhall near Shelby Drive.

1005
01:08:18,768 --> 01:08:24,508
It all sounds great, but with that construction comes questions about MLG&W's

1006
01:08:24,508 --> 01:08:30,368
agreement to provide energy for a process that requires large amounts of power to run.

1007
01:08:30,828 --> 01:08:34,848
WRG's Mike Sirianni spoke with a city council member about those concerns.

1008
01:08:35,668 --> 01:08:39,988
There is that concern. It is definitely that concern and that worry because

1009
01:08:39,988 --> 01:08:43,068
it takes a lot of power. Memphis City Councilman Dr.

1010
01:08:43,208 --> 01:08:48,208
Jeff Warren sounding off after Merkle Standard, a California-based digital mining

1011
01:08:48,208 --> 01:08:53,448
group, gets the go-ahead to build a crypto mining facility in southeast Memphis.

1012
01:08:53,768 --> 01:08:59,048
The issue with all of these data centers, whether they be Bitcoin mining or

1013
01:08:59,048 --> 01:09:05,108
AI centers, is what do they do to the local power grid?

1014
01:09:05,108 --> 01:09:11,068
Warren referring to Elon Musk's supercomputer in southwest Memphis and the massive

1015
01:09:11,068 --> 01:09:16,808
amounts of power required for operation, concerns expressed during a public meeting in August.

1016
01:09:17,168 --> 01:09:25,028
We had too many times of blackouts and, you know, boil your water kind of things last year.

1017
01:09:25,028 --> 01:09:29,548
MLGW has reportedly signed a five-year contract with Merkle Standard,

1018
01:09:29,548 --> 01:09:35,108
providing 45 megawatts during low demand times, cutting that supply back to

1019
01:09:35,108 --> 01:09:37,968
five megawatts during high energy demand.

1020
01:09:38,308 --> 01:09:43,108
And that's the key thing. And that's something that Elon's AI data center cannot do.

1021
01:09:43,528 --> 01:09:48,188
The Bitcoin miners can buy that power when it's available and they can taper.

1022
01:09:48,628 --> 01:09:51,988
And you will not even notice as a Bitcoin user.

1023
01:09:53,511 --> 01:09:57,851
You would notice as an XAI user if all of a sudden your time to get an answer went way up.

1024
01:09:57,991 --> 01:10:01,571
Or you would notice as a Netflix user if all of a sudden you had to pull from

1025
01:10:01,571 --> 01:10:04,431
a data center further away and your video had to buffer a lot more.

1026
01:10:04,791 --> 01:10:08,911
But you don't notice on the Bitcoin network if this facility in Memphis has

1027
01:10:08,911 --> 01:10:09,851
to spin down a little bit.

1028
01:10:10,171 --> 01:10:14,131
This is a key thing to understand about Bitcoin mining that is going to be a

1029
01:10:14,131 --> 01:10:16,131
huge differentiator between AI data centers.

1030
01:10:16,131 --> 01:10:21,191
MLGW has reportedly signed a five-year contract with Merkle Standard providing

1031
01:10:21,191 --> 01:10:27,271
45 megawatts during low-demand times, cutting that supply back to 5 megawatts

1032
01:10:27,271 --> 01:10:29,071
during high-energy demand.

1033
01:10:29,351 --> 01:10:32,871
And I think they'll be the first to go out of the system to make sure that we

1034
01:10:32,871 --> 01:10:36,871
don't gray out or have other people have to have rolling blackouts.

1035
01:10:37,331 --> 01:10:41,731
Construction on South Mendenhall is mostly shrouded from view with a number

1036
01:10:41,731 --> 01:10:45,631
of metal container buildings to house data processing systems.

1037
01:10:45,631 --> 01:10:50,411
While Councilman Morin wants to see these data centers using solar power and

1038
01:10:50,411 --> 01:10:56,151
renewable energy, he also wants zoning changes that allow for more oversight.

1039
01:10:56,971 --> 01:11:01,531
So you don't necessarily, I mean you can, but you don't necessarily want to

1040
01:11:01,531 --> 01:11:05,951
add the solar or other renewable energy at the data center site.

1041
01:11:06,211 --> 01:11:10,831
What you want to do is have the power grid invest in renewable energies.

1042
01:11:10,831 --> 01:11:16,331
You want to have the power operators of that local area invest and take the

1043
01:11:16,331 --> 01:11:19,891
revenue that they're getting from the Bitcoin mining to build that out.

1044
01:11:20,231 --> 01:11:23,251
And then it's part of the overall mix for the entire grid. So that way,

1045
01:11:23,351 --> 01:11:27,551
when Bob and Jill choose to charge their EV at 4 p.m.

1046
01:11:27,571 --> 01:11:31,771
When everybody's getting home, the grid has the supply for that and it can actually

1047
01:11:31,771 --> 01:11:33,471
charge that EV with renewable energy.

1048
01:11:33,471 --> 01:11:38,571
So you can put it at the data center, but you benefit immensely,

1049
01:11:38,591 --> 01:11:42,871
and everyone benefits, if the investment is used wisely by the power company.

1050
01:11:43,091 --> 01:11:49,851
Solar power and renewable energy. He also wants zoning changes that allow for more oversight.

1051
01:11:50,151 --> 01:11:53,571
And we don't have those yet. We don't have them on a local level.

1052
01:11:53,591 --> 01:11:57,911
We don't have them on a state level. And we don't have them on a national level.

1053
01:11:57,911 --> 01:12:04,191
For your news leader in Southeast Memphis, Mike Suriani, WREG News Channel 3. Thanks, Mike.

1054
01:12:04,471 --> 01:12:07,211
You know, I just, yeah, just more rules. That's what they need.

1055
01:12:07,291 --> 01:12:09,531
If we just had more rules. Yeah.

1056
01:12:10,480 --> 01:12:19,920
Music.

1057
01:12:20,212 --> 01:12:24,132
This is the final clip of the week. It comes from the folks over at Simply Bitcoin

1058
01:12:24,132 --> 01:12:27,972
on their X account. And it is the former finance professor, Tad Smith.

1059
01:12:28,572 --> 01:12:31,892
It's a brilliant clip because he had a massive realization. He says,

1060
01:12:31,992 --> 01:12:36,492
you know, after 25 years of teaching finance, it took me this long at the age

1061
01:12:36,492 --> 01:12:40,652
of 58 to really appreciate how the money printer impacts all of us.

1062
01:12:41,152 --> 01:12:45,532
And I think I want to play this clip because we all should have a little grace for these individuals.

1063
01:12:45,532 --> 01:12:48,812
These folks that are finance experts that have

1064
01:12:48,812 --> 01:12:51,852
lived in a system that has always been this way

1065
01:12:51,852 --> 01:12:55,092
basically their entire adult life and it

1066
01:12:55,092 --> 01:12:58,172
is so hard to understand bitcoin in from with inside that

1067
01:12:58,172 --> 01:13:00,952
system it's like the deeper you are the harder it

1068
01:13:00,952 --> 01:13:04,552
is to see the cracks i suppose and well tad

1069
01:13:04,552 --> 01:13:07,432
here kind of makes it clear and i think we should all use this as a

1070
01:13:07,432 --> 01:13:10,732
moment to kind of reflect on that i didn't

1071
01:13:10,732 --> 01:13:13,632
realize that if

1072
01:13:13,632 --> 01:13:19,552
the average year the money printer goes call it eight to ten percent even in

1073
01:13:19,552 --> 01:13:24,552
the western countries even in the oecd nations and the average return on the

1074
01:13:24,552 --> 01:13:31,812
s p 500 is call it nine ish percent including dividends maybe nine point seven maybe a little less.

1075
01:13:32,772 --> 01:13:39,232
That it means that all of the work of the S&P 500, all of the value created

1076
01:13:39,232 --> 01:13:42,732
there is actually the money printer. That to me was startling.

1077
01:13:43,392 --> 01:13:49,612
I mean, to think about that, the fundamental notion that in a closed system

1078
01:13:49,612 --> 01:13:52,432
or even an open system, when you're printing money at the rate of eight to 10%

1079
01:13:52,432 --> 01:13:54,972
a year, everything is losing value.

1080
01:13:55,112 --> 01:13:59,552
And the things that appear to be gaining value are not gaining value.

1081
01:14:00,432 --> 01:14:04,832
They're just keeping you even. So you can put all your money in the S&P 500

1082
01:14:04,832 --> 01:14:06,852
and you're not gaining any relative wealth at all.

1083
01:14:07,532 --> 01:14:10,912
That's a startling insight. I mean, when you really think about the entire value

1084
01:14:10,912 --> 01:14:15,292
of the S&P 500 on average over a long period of time, not even a long period

1085
01:14:15,292 --> 01:14:17,472
of time, is equivalent to the money printer.

1086
01:14:18,612 --> 01:14:23,952
That's to me a shock. And it was a shock that said, oh my goodness, I'm not going to,

1087
01:14:25,019 --> 01:14:31,779
How do you think about creating wealth that is relatively greater in this economy?

1088
01:14:32,059 --> 01:14:33,179
And you have to look hard.

1089
01:14:33,599 --> 01:14:37,639
The other thing you can imagine is I could tell you about sharp ratios and diversification.

1090
01:14:37,659 --> 01:14:39,459
I could tell you all these different things.

1091
01:14:41,099 --> 01:14:46,339
And it's interesting. You can take a concept like diversification of risk,

1092
01:14:46,339 --> 01:14:50,459
and at a top level, it can be a very powerful and useful tool.

1093
01:14:50,459 --> 01:14:55,139
But if you are so focused on the mechanistic aspect of that,

1094
01:14:55,359 --> 01:15:01,119
you can step back and miss the forest, which is in a highly diversified portfolio,

1095
01:15:01,119 --> 01:15:06,519
it's unbelievably hard to pick up relative amounts of wealth.

1096
01:15:07,039 --> 01:15:12,099
It is diversifying your portfolio. However, you do it is by and large going

1097
01:15:12,099 --> 01:15:17,859
to reduce your incremental gain in wealth, irrespective of the Sharpe ratio.

1098
01:15:18,419 --> 01:15:23,219
It's concentration of capital in specific bets that outperform the money printer

1099
01:15:23,219 --> 01:15:24,899
where you actually create wealth.

1100
01:15:25,079 --> 01:15:28,199
That was a shock to me. I just didn't get it.

1101
01:15:28,359 --> 01:15:33,139
I didn't understand it. Even though I taught finance for 20 plus years,

1102
01:15:33,259 --> 01:15:35,999
I'm still a professor at NYU Stern at Stern Business School.

1103
01:15:36,139 --> 01:15:38,919
I've taught strategy and finance for technology and media entertainment companies.

1104
01:15:39,219 --> 01:15:42,559
I'm on a two-year hiatus, but I'll be presumably going back in the spring.

1105
01:15:42,859 --> 01:15:48,619
For 25 years, I have I have almost actually more than 1,000 former students.

1106
01:15:49,319 --> 01:15:52,859
And I still didn't get it until I'm age 58. That's the Bitcoin journey.

1107
01:15:53,520 --> 01:16:04,880
Music.

1108
01:16:04,729 --> 01:16:11,329
Of the network. Before we wrap up, this episode is finishing at block height 878,382.

1109
01:16:11,449 --> 01:16:15,149
The price is currently 94,350 U.S. greenbacks.

1110
01:16:15,769 --> 01:16:23,429
My favorite statistic, sats per dollar, sitting at 1,060 sats to one U.S. greenback.

1111
01:16:24,669 --> 01:16:31,149
There are 20,564 reachable Bitcoin nodes.

1112
01:16:32,129 --> 01:16:35,729
Great to see that crack 21,000. in the next month or so.

1113
01:16:38,669 --> 01:16:44,729
But we are not at an all-time high. In fact, we are down 12.8% from our all-time

1114
01:16:44,729 --> 01:16:47,769
high 22 days ago on December 17th, 2024.

1115
01:16:49,749 --> 01:16:54,409
However, I'm not complaining about 90-something Bitcoin. I'm just not going to do it, guys.

1116
01:16:55,089 --> 01:17:00,149
The state of the Bitcoin network is really strong, and 90,000 Bitcoin is A-OK by me.

1117
01:17:01,449 --> 01:17:06,369
Thank you so much for listening to This Week in Bitcoin. links at thisweekinbitcoin.show,

1118
01:17:07,169 --> 01:17:10,089
I'd love to have you boost in to see what else you'd like to hear from the show

1119
01:17:10,089 --> 01:17:14,569
what I missed or any takes on what I talked about and also if you're planning

1120
01:17:14,569 --> 01:17:17,869
and how you're planning for inflation to last for a long time,

1121
01:17:18,609 --> 01:17:21,869
please consider sharing the show with somebody I don't know maybe you got a

1122
01:17:21,869 --> 01:17:24,589
friend that's Bitcoin curious or a family member or somebody else that,

1123
01:17:25,049 --> 01:17:28,849
wants to follow the Bitcoin news and understand it at a macro level please consider

1124
01:17:28,849 --> 01:17:32,809
sending them this show now I am going to wrap it up with a value for value track,

1125
01:17:32,969 --> 01:17:35,429
that means if you boost during the song, you support the artist.

1126
01:17:35,589 --> 01:17:37,469
90% of your sats go directly to the artist.

1127
01:17:38,289 --> 01:17:43,229
And I got a good one for you. I think this is perhaps the number one song in

1128
01:17:43,229 --> 01:17:44,409
the value verse right now.

1129
01:17:44,769 --> 01:17:49,309
It's You Sure Did by June and the Jets. See you next week.

1130
01:17:50,480 --> 01:21:19,062
Music.