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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 110.

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My name is Chris.

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Chris LAS.com.

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JupyterBroadcasting.com.

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May we live in interesting times, they said.

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Well, you know what?

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I wish they never said it.

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BIP-110 soft fork is about 45 days away from activating.

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We'll get more into that later in the show.

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But I want to start with macro.

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Because the price action we are seeing right now in Bitcoin, it's going to be analyzed for decades by the chart boys.

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They're going to be zooming in and out of this section on their chart for a very long time.

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Because since 2013, which is really when this has been tracked, Bitcoin's only spent 10% of its time below the 200-week moving average.

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10%.

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And that's where we're at right now.

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Historically, these dips, they're rare, and they've often turned into major buying opportunities within a year or so, which is a pretty short turnaround for Bitcoin.

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And what's changing right now, we're going to get into this, is for most of the year, Bitcoin's had its own set of catalysts.

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The Iran war and the Fed, will the Fed cut, won't they cut, what are the dot plots, what's going on with energy in the strait?

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And that stuff, it still matters, it's still out there, it's still a risk factor.

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But there's this second calendar running along Bitcoin.

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is this is how they call it out there.

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It's a second calendar now.

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That is driven by AI earnings and bond yields

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and also the Fed rate path

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because it impacts all of those things.

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What that really means, the translation is,

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is Bitcoin not only is getting jerked around

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by these large events happening in the Middle East

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in the energy market,

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but now also getting jerked around like a tech stock,

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which is going to get exhausting and painful.

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In fact, I suspect it's going to get a lot more painful.

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but having said that, it will absolutely be worth it.

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Now, here's what I'm talking about.

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There was a mood shift this week.

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I'm telling you, man, I watch so many clips

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and it's like, it just starts happening.

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One person says it, the next person says it

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and within two days, they're all saying it.

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And the vibe is this. They realize that maybe there's edges to this AI bubble. In fact, they're just straight up now referring to it. It's not is there or not an AI bubble. Yes, there's an AI bubble. How long will it last? And what about this debt problem? Because, you know, we were getting a lot of easy money, but now you got Meta, you got Google, you got SpaceX. They're all raising debt. Even SpaceX just launched their IPO. They're raising debt.

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And so the market's starting to wonder if these frontier AI labs that are raising all of this debt, that have these massive CapEx expenditures, and now we're discovering they're setting incredible money aside just for payroll, for competitive payroll, which there's a little bit of question on return of investment there as far as the market's concerned.

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There are more and more risks to the downside starting to stack up in the AI trade.

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And it means even permables, people that are always, oh, to the moon, my Ethereum stack's going to get big, my Bitcoin, blah, blah.

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I'm talking about Tom Lee, obviously.

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Tom Lee, he's always to the moon.

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And even Tom Lee's like, let's tap the brakes.

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I think things are going to get a little bumpy later this year.

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um scott we still believe uh later this year there is going to be an abrupt change of market

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conditions one that feels very much like a bear market um but we don't want to stand and uh call

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a top i think conditions are still favorable for stocks you know the spacex ipo was very successful

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and as you know there's been a cadence of pretty good news coming out of that company and it is a

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very small float company with only 90 billion of float. And I think Kevin Warsh, his view,

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this was actually kind of a market reaction to his first press conference. But I think that the

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real challenge is going to come later this year. So I think, yes, very much there is going to be

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a change in market tone, but I think it's too early for people to expect that to happen now.

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Now, that's not very useful. So let's make this more useful. And I need to make it clear,

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In my opinion, Bitcoin doesn't need every single AI stock out there to crash.

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That's a little ridiculous.

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It needs the market to remember that debt financed growth and monetary dilution, they're not

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the same thing as a genuine, scarce, hard asset or collateral.

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Right?

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They're just two different things.

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Goldman Sachs wrote in their recent investor research letter that came out at the beginning

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of the week, quote, the first hyperscaler to signal that it can slow the pace of spending

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will likely see its share price rewarded. If that happens, others will take notice.

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That is the reflexivity that ultimately stalls the CapEx cycle. What Goldman is saying here is

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the first hyperscaler that says we can slow our spending and still achieve some of our goals,

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maybe not all of them, but we can slow our spending and achieve some of these great goals,

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the first hyperscaler that signals that, the market's going to move to them.

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And all the ones that are spending like crazy are going to be punished.

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And what Goldman is saying is that reflexive move is ultimately what is going to stall

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the CapEx cycle, the capital expenditure cycle. And honestly, right now, it kind of feels like

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they all know it. And that's why they're racing to the exits to raise debt as fast as they can.

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Some fears about AI debt taking a toll on some of the mega cap names.

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Let's get more this morning from our Kay Rooney.

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Morning, Kate.

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Hey, Carl.

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Good morning.

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So, yeah, a big part of this tech sell-off is sentiment right now.

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There is some renewed anxiety around AI spending by tech giants and this growing role of debt in that entire build-out.

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Reminder, these companies are expected to plow $750 billion into this AI build-out.

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Just this year, it's up about 80% from a year ago, and they are depleting cash at record levels.

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Goldman recently noting, CapEx.

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If you look at it as a percentage of free cash flow, that is at its highest level since the dot-com bubble.

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The dollar amounts are not necessarily new, but in recent weeks, we've seen more fear around debt in this entire build-out.

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That has been the big headline in recent weeks.

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SpaceX yesterday turning to the bond market.

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That was the latest example.

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Google with one of the largest debt financing rounds in this cycle.

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I should say Alphabet, parent company of Google.

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Oracle also raising debt is expected to see negative free cash flow this year.

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This is fascinating. So Amazon, $68 billion year to date. Alphabet, $32 billion in February of 26. Meta, $25 billion in April of 26. NVIDIA, $25 billion this month. And Oracle, $25 billion in debt on February 26. It's really starting to stack up. And I think it's making them nervous. Like, all of a sudden, they're like, well, what about this debt? Like, all of a sudden, they care. Like, how are we going to pay this debt back?

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I don't know why it's being asked now.

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I think because the more it gets asked, the more they don't like the answer, perhaps.

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And SpaceX, you know, that's a big, hot IPO, big, hot stock.

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People sold their Bitcoin to buy SpaceX.

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And in the last three trading sessions, it's, what, down about 22, 23 percent.

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We are seeing this share price come back down to Earth.

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This was the most hotly anticipated IPO of the year so far.

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And we're seeing just yesterday that share price slumping some 16% in a single day.

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Now, why is this happening?

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This was so hotly anticipated.

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Debt has a lot to do with it because the company yesterday said that they are seeking to raise

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investment grade debt for the very first time.

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Bloomberg News has reported that they are seeking some $20 billion in debt.

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Now, this is an unusual move.

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This is early in the lifespan of a company to be seeking that sort of debt.

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Again, the company is not profitable yet.

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They have been burning through cash and some of the language that they have used to talk to debt investors.

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Let's take a look at that because it's very similar to what we saw in their IPO perspectives.

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It is very grandiose.

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This company is talking about how our mission is to build the systems and technologies necessary to make life multi-planetary.

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I mean, that's a pretty big mission.

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So they recovered a bit since then I sure they be OK and all of that But I think it just interesting There is a real fear building here Like the edges of the cracker there

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the edges of the bubble are there. And SpaceX, I think, sees it. That's why they pushed for this

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IPO when they did. That's why then they kept the cursor merger quiet. So that way they didn't slow

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anything down. So that way the IPO will get through on time. Get that IPO through, then announce the

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cursor merger. Then once that's all settled, raise some debt while everything's sort of at

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its peak momentum because they know this is such a momentum market. And Bitcoin's problem here

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isn't just price action, right? I just touched on it.

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You could call it momentum. You could call it a narrative vacuum. I think we all know the

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strongest long-term pro-Bitcoin argument is the debasement trade, and it eventually will return

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When the Fed and Treasury start working together to inject money into the market for whatever reason they will have to, that's, of course, going to be Bitcoin's moment to shine.

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I think we all know that.

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But of all the characters in the world talking about the narrative issue and the energy around Bitcoin right now, I was surprised that the Mooch and Novigratz seem to have, I guess, maybe the most clear-headed analysis.

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The price for Bitcoin is now at an all-time low.

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Google searches for Bitcoin are way down.

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And we have now drawn through the 50% peak to trow.

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Long-term holders now control a record 79% of circulating supply.

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And reactivation of old coins is at its lowest level since 2012.

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Is that a sign of weak selling pressure that we are at a bottom?

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Michael, you've been doing this for almost 40 years.

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Or is that a sign that this is a dead asset?

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Yeah, it's a painful question.

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I think you got to give Bitcoin the benefit of the doubt, at least until this time next year.

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And what I'm saying about that is, like, could we go a little lower?

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Do we go through 60?

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Of course we could.

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You know, some context here.

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I think the reason why the mooch here is asking this question, because maybe perhaps to you and I, this may just sound like a ridiculous question.

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That is the question he is getting asked every time he goes on Bloomberg, Fox Business, CNBC, or he's getting interviewed by the Wall Street Journal. I see him asked that all the time. So he's just basically asking it to Novigrad.

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What to say about that is, could we go a little lower if we go through 60? Of course we could.

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People are so vested in this over the last 15 years. It's a life for people that most of those

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long-term holders aren't selling. And it will get its narrative back. The narrative is the Fed will

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be cutting rates at one point. With the populism we're talking about, there's very small chance

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that we actually get ourselves out of the financial mess we're in and that we don't

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have to inflate our data away. So the narrative comes back and it's really a good brand. It just

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has no energy right now. There are no new buyers. And Michael Saylor's in a pickle. He's got this

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preferred instrument that's now trading way below par. And now he doesn't have to do anything,

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but there's all this pressure for him to do something. And we'll see how that plays out.

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That's weighing a lot on Bitcoin, right?

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He's the biggest salesman of Bitcoin.

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He's the biggest holder of Bitcoin.

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He's the biggest advocate.

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And so, again, maybe not in our space necessarily, but in the new markets they're trying to reach, you know, the people that have some wealth of Bitcoin.

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He's the biggest holder of Bitcoin.

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He's the biggest advocate.

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And so I don't think it's in a great space right now.

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I don't advocate selling at 60 if you're a long-term holder.

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because, you know, that four-year cycle

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kicks back in in October,

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maybe right when the economy's slowing enough

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that Worsh can cut rates,

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you know, end of the year, beginning of next year.

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And so I think if you're a long-term holder of Bitcoin,

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you got to give it to March of next year.

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If it hasn't come back by then,

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maybe you scratch your head and say,

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did I miss something?

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Oh, March.

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Oh, March.

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I'm glad he said it though, so I don't have to.

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That's kind of how I get through bear markets, though, is I kind of worst case scenario in my mind.

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I kind of have, well, I guess I have, I kind of have like three possible paths that I see.

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Like there's a best case path, and that would be some sort of surprise to the upside where the market starts buying Bitcoin again.

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The likely path is we leg down until October, and then we sort of bottom and start to kind of slowly climb up before people really realize it.

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And then it's recognized by March.

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and assuming that the Fed does maybe lower rates around that time,

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the money may start trickling into the wider economy by January, March.

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So that's sort of a likely October, March range, I think.

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Maybe the worst case would be March, May.

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I hope not.

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But these things, they happen.

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I mean, this is, what I think is crazy is,

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to me, this would be an indication that Bitcoin isn't captured by institutions.

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because I don't think this would be their plan.

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In fact, I think you could argue the marketplace for Bitcoin

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in terms of legal and economic structures and administration

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has never been more friendly to Bitcoin.

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Yet, here we are.

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I don't know what to think about Bitcoin anymore.

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The one thing I was wondering with Bitcoin

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is there was a time when there were very few ITOs.

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Part of it is I think the public markets are a little bit broken

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with so many index funds and stuff.

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Everybody thinks the same.

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Thus, nobody really wants, you know, new IPOs.

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I wonder if Bitcoin was a little bit sort of the off-ramp

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for everybody that wants to have something

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a little bit more speculative.

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Yeah, now that we have these big IPOs on one side

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and then we have stablecoin on the other.

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And stablecoin involves the word stable.

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So if you really want to just put your money offshore,

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or put your money in a new system,

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you can go through stablecoins.

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Frankly, stablecoins more or less

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are already paying interest.

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I don't think they really are,

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but there's schemes where you get these rewards

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and stuff like that.

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So if you want just a stablecoin, you can.

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I don't know if I buy this right now.

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I mean, he's saying that people want big rewards,

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but then they're willing to put it in stablecoins

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where they're going to get probably

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less return than average inflation

218
00:15:18,708 --> 00:15:20,048
for the goods they buy day to day.

219
00:15:21,348 --> 00:15:21,708
Okay.

220
00:15:21,708 --> 00:15:26,168
all right well we'll let him continue we'll let him continue these like rewards and stuff like that

221
00:15:26,168 --> 00:15:31,468
so if you want the just a stable coin you can there's fabulous IPOs coming out there's SpaceX

222
00:15:31,468 --> 00:15:38,488
there's gonna be some AI and I just wonder like well where is Bitcoin now and the purpose of

223
00:15:38,488 --> 00:15:44,468
Bitcoin and a little bit what you need to believe is almost this maximal maximalist view about

224
00:15:44,468 --> 00:15:49,728
Bitcoin like when I speak to people about Bitcoin it's a bit like a cult you're either in or you're

225
00:15:49,728 --> 00:15:58,248
not so that's just my new thoughts on bitcoin i'm a little bit more worried and i would rather bet

226
00:15:58,248 --> 00:16:06,348
on is space gonna quadruple over the next 20 years oh yeah okay well play fiat games win fiat

227
00:16:06,348 --> 00:16:12,028
prices of course back in january he said he was waking up at like 3 a.m wishing he'd bought more

228
00:16:12,028 --> 00:16:18,988
bitcoin things change it's just you sell your hard asset bitcoin right for a stock that can be

229
00:16:18,988 --> 00:16:26,128
printed and sold for fiat that can be printed. Like, so he knows this. So then I guess the

230
00:16:26,128 --> 00:16:32,988
cynical bet is that it's going to perform so hard, whatever this IPO stock is, it's going to perform

231
00:16:32,988 --> 00:16:39,548
so hard that none of that risk I just mentioned matters. But the elephant in the room that I

232
00:16:39,548 --> 00:16:47,168
can't unsee is the ruthless evolutionary growth of open source. How many times have we seen this,

233
00:16:47,168 --> 00:16:54,768
guys. The history shows us it's our teacher. It knows the way this plays out. Open source tech

234
00:16:54,768 --> 00:17:00,768
tends to win out over time just due to market forces. It's just it's an organic evolutionary

235
00:17:00,768 --> 00:17:07,908
thing and people just follow their own incentives. And I think the free models are going are going to

236
00:17:07,908 --> 00:17:11,908
be the elephant in the room that has to get acknowledged. Here's Arthur Hayes. He was on

237
00:17:11,908 --> 00:17:35,476
the Bankless podcast recently Just a warning This clip does have a little bit of swearing But he kind of put these thoughts that I have I think into words To amortize a loan based on that you saying that this CapEx will continue indefinitely even though you have Chinese competitors with models that are good enough charging 1 of the price

238
00:17:35,476 --> 00:17:37,575
and so I think

239
00:17:37,575 --> 00:17:39,075
this a lot of investors

240
00:17:39,075 --> 00:17:40,575
have sort of bought into the

241
00:17:40,575 --> 00:17:42,575
the America

242
00:17:42,575 --> 00:17:44,636
you know is it the baddest

243
00:17:44,636 --> 00:17:46,035
biggest baddest country

244
00:17:46,035 --> 00:17:46,995
best tech

245
00:17:46,995 --> 00:17:47,676
da da da da da

246
00:17:47,676 --> 00:17:48,955
it's the same fallacy

247
00:17:48,955 --> 00:17:50,015
you thought about cars right

248
00:17:50,015 --> 00:17:50,976
do you give a fuck

249
00:17:50,976 --> 00:17:51,896
if you were to drive a Ford

250
00:17:51,896 --> 00:17:52,575
or a BYD

251
00:17:52,575 --> 00:17:53,616
give me the BYD

252
00:17:53,616 --> 00:17:54,075
it's cheaper

253
00:17:54,075 --> 00:17:55,636
right it's just as good

254
00:17:55,636 --> 00:17:56,376
if not better

255
00:17:56,376 --> 00:17:57,376
so I think

256
00:17:57,376 --> 00:17:58,775
people have bought into

257
00:17:58,775 --> 00:17:59,736
the brand of the USA

258
00:17:59,736 --> 00:18:00,935
but they forget that like

259
00:18:00,935 --> 00:18:03,355
the brand value erodes

260
00:18:03,355 --> 00:18:04,616
when a customer is faced

261
00:18:04,616 --> 00:18:07,575
for the product that's good enough and 1% of the price,

262
00:18:07,896 --> 00:18:11,376
which is what a DeepSeek or Kimi model can deliver.

263
00:18:12,295 --> 00:18:14,656
And so I think these are some of the things

264
00:18:14,656 --> 00:18:17,136
that eventually the market will recognize.

265
00:18:17,835 --> 00:18:19,095
I don't know when that is.

266
00:18:19,755 --> 00:18:21,535
And then they'll say, okay, I don't believe

267
00:18:21,535 --> 00:18:23,976
that I should be paying this multiple for this company

268
00:18:23,976 --> 00:18:26,736
or the executives at these hyperscalers say,

269
00:18:26,835 --> 00:18:29,315
I don't believe I'm earning the return I need to earn.

270
00:18:29,315 --> 00:18:32,535
I need to scale back my CapEx projections.

271
00:18:32,535 --> 00:18:35,815
And that's when the whole edifice starts to break.

272
00:18:35,815 --> 00:18:42,755
Now, this could be a bigger problem than it seems on the surface, because as they say, the market is forward looking.

273
00:18:43,695 --> 00:19:00,876
And like I laid out two weeks ago, these companies have until late 2027, early 2028, around that time frame, to show that they can make as much money as Apple's iPhone division and in some cases all of Microsoft in just a few years.

274
00:19:00,876 --> 00:19:02,435
They have to get to that level of profit.

275
00:19:03,055 --> 00:19:06,716
That timing, 28 or so, 27, 28,

276
00:19:07,855 --> 00:19:10,315
also might line up with when it's time

277
00:19:10,315 --> 00:19:13,595
to swap out some of those Blackwell and H100s

278
00:19:13,595 --> 00:19:16,156
so that way the frontier models can stay competitive

279
00:19:16,156 --> 00:19:17,835
against open source models

280
00:19:17,835 --> 00:19:19,355
and their other frontier competitors.

281
00:19:20,535 --> 00:19:23,916
And so as these hotshot rides to space right now

282
00:19:23,916 --> 00:19:25,476
are just so unbelievably great

283
00:19:25,476 --> 00:19:27,255
that he's going to sell his Bitcoin,

284
00:19:27,935 --> 00:19:30,015
you have to wonder if once the market

285
00:19:30,015 --> 00:19:32,075
starts forward looking at these issues,

286
00:19:32,075 --> 00:19:35,575
if they're not going to look at these beloved rockets to space

287
00:19:35,575 --> 00:19:37,515
and just start dumping them.

288
00:19:37,736 --> 00:19:44,035
The greatest part for crypto is that if we do get an AI credit event,

289
00:19:44,935 --> 00:19:46,495
number one, it'll be bigger than 2008

290
00:19:46,495 --> 00:19:51,055
because the whole world is on this delusion that AI is the biggest technology ever.

291
00:19:51,055 --> 00:19:55,855
We're going to build more CapEx per percentage of GDP than we did with the railroads,

292
00:19:56,075 --> 00:19:57,736
much bigger than subprime.

293
00:19:58,455 --> 00:20:01,535
And the Fed can't print Moore's Law.

294
00:20:02,075 --> 00:20:05,896
I don't care how much money that you throw at this thing.

295
00:20:06,416 --> 00:20:12,136
You can't change the fact that a chip gets better every two years if you pump $10 trillion into the economy.

296
00:20:12,656 --> 00:20:16,616
So what's the first response going to be by the financial authorities to try to save the banks?

297
00:20:16,716 --> 00:20:19,916
Oh, we just need to shovel fiat money in.

298
00:20:20,535 --> 00:20:27,295
And at that point, investors are going to say, I do not want to put any new capital, whether it's free or not, into AI because it does not meet its cost of capital.

299
00:20:27,876 --> 00:20:30,695
So therefore, this capital goes straight to crypto.

300
00:20:30,695 --> 00:20:49,315
And this is the implosion of the AI bubble and the follow on money printing that's going to happen, especially in the United States, to try to stick shave the system from this gross capital misallocation that's happened over the last, let's call it six to seven years.

301
00:20:49,315 --> 00:20:52,335
by that point is going to dwarf subprime

302
00:20:52,335 --> 00:20:55,716
and is going to take us to Bitcoin a million

303
00:20:55,716 --> 00:20:56,355
or whatever, right?

304
00:20:56,396 --> 00:20:57,156
This is the big print.

305
00:20:57,815 --> 00:21:00,455
If you get this, if this thesis is correct

306
00:21:00,455 --> 00:21:03,275
and you time this well, you'll never work again.

307
00:21:03,636 --> 00:21:05,955
This is the John Paulson subprime trade.

308
00:21:05,955 --> 00:21:09,355
This is the big short Michael Burry trade

309
00:21:09,355 --> 00:21:12,015
of this particular epoch.

310
00:21:12,136 --> 00:21:13,396
And that's kind of how I'm thinking about this.

311
00:21:13,476 --> 00:21:14,736
I don't know when this is going to happen,

312
00:21:15,195 --> 00:21:17,075
but I know I got to get this right.

313
00:21:19,315 --> 00:21:21,355
All right, so let me know what you think.

314
00:21:21,435 --> 00:21:22,035
Two questions.

315
00:21:22,216 --> 00:21:24,376
Do you think this thesis that's being developed here,

316
00:21:24,376 --> 00:21:27,955
that once the AI bubble kind of pops,

317
00:21:29,075 --> 00:21:30,695
and that we're acknowledging there's an AI bubble,

318
00:21:30,855 --> 00:21:33,295
that that money may flow into something like a hard asset again?

319
00:21:33,376 --> 00:21:39,515
But also, I'm curious, March comes around, October comes around,

320
00:21:39,515 --> 00:21:42,176
and nothing's changing, and Bitcoin's still sliding.

321
00:21:43,236 --> 00:21:45,575
Just as a thought experiment, right?

322
00:21:45,616 --> 00:21:46,575
Just as a thought experiment.

323
00:21:46,575 --> 00:21:53,116
what would actually make you change your bitcoin strategy like what would it take would it take

324
00:21:53,116 --> 00:21:59,095
five years of a bear market would it take two years what's your line boost in and tell me i

325
00:21:59,095 --> 00:22:02,535
thought so these are two things what do you think about this ai thesis when the bubble pops the

326
00:22:02,535 --> 00:22:09,116
money comes back to bitcoin and number two when would you change your strategy what would be

327
00:22:09,116 --> 00:22:11,015
the threshold boost in and let me know

328
00:22:11,015 --> 00:22:33,335
well i'll take a moment to say you can support the show just by doing what you do if you want

329
00:22:33,335 --> 00:22:36,815
to stack sats on river and you haven't made an account yet use my link in the show notes

330
00:22:37,335 --> 00:22:38,916
Best way to stack sats in the U.S.

331
00:22:39,236 --> 00:22:43,636
Now, if you're all about self-custody, you don't want the platform to host a wallet for you at all,

332
00:22:43,896 --> 00:22:46,216
in the U.S. and Canada, check out the Bitcoin Well,

333
00:22:46,595 --> 00:22:50,156
automatic self-custody platform that has so many great features.

334
00:22:50,595 --> 00:22:54,075
If it's time to spend some sats and you want to go from lightning to a gift card in just seconds,

335
00:22:54,495 --> 00:22:56,035
the Bitcoin company is where it's at.

336
00:22:56,555 --> 00:22:57,656
All they do is Bitcoin.

337
00:22:58,855 --> 00:23:01,095
Lightning, gift card, boom.

338
00:23:01,535 --> 00:23:06,075
Fold card, you want to stack sats while you pay bills and do your whatnots that you got to do to get by?

339
00:23:06,075 --> 00:23:08,315
the bold card stack stats passively.

340
00:23:08,896 --> 00:23:12,295
Now, if it's time to get access to your Bitcoin value without selling it, check out Salt Lending.

341
00:23:12,656 --> 00:23:16,295
Great rates, great minimums, and liquidation protection as well.

342
00:23:17,095 --> 00:23:20,555
No official relation, but those are companies I like and use.

343
00:23:20,676 --> 00:23:24,055
And the links in the notes let you support the show by doing what you do.

344
00:23:36,075 --> 00:23:52,255
And now it is time for Le Boost.

345
00:23:52,396 --> 00:23:55,455
Hey, there's another way to support the show is you can send a boost.

346
00:23:56,075 --> 00:23:57,955
And Paul S. did just that.

347
00:23:57,955 --> 00:24:03,876
And Paul is our baller booster this week with 100,001 Satoshis.

348
00:24:06,075 --> 00:24:09,515
You're the best around

349
00:24:09,515 --> 00:24:12,616
Nothing's gonna ever keep you down

350
00:24:12,616 --> 00:24:14,616
You're the best around

351
00:24:14,616 --> 00:24:16,716
Fun will now commence

352
00:24:16,716 --> 00:24:18,275
All right, Paul, thank you, Sizz.

353
00:24:18,355 --> 00:24:23,295
The longer clip featuring Saifedean a few weeks ago was just insightful.

354
00:24:23,736 --> 00:24:27,535
I got a lot of value from the deeper discussion around Austrian economics and monetary sovereignty.

355
00:24:28,195 --> 00:24:35,195
Occasional clips from Pierre Rochard, Michael Goldstein, Nick Sasbo, Stephen Liviera, Nick Bahita, etc.

356
00:24:35,195 --> 00:24:40,335
are all appreciated. Well, stay tuned, Paul. We have a little bit of a longer clip segment coming

357
00:24:40,335 --> 00:24:44,815
up in the update segment after the boost. And thank you very much for being the baller booster.

358
00:24:44,955 --> 00:24:48,095
That is a very much like that right there almost makes the whole episode, buddy.

359
00:24:48,495 --> 00:24:52,736
Did you buy that from a certified vendor? I hope not. Thank you very, very much.

360
00:24:52,876 --> 00:24:58,396
That's a spicy meatball. I do appreciate it, Paul. And keep on listening. And Paul used the

361
00:24:58,396 --> 00:25:02,335
new web boost, too. That's pretty cool. That might you know what? That might just be one of

362
00:25:02,335 --> 00:25:03,575
the smarter things I did recently.

363
00:25:04,876 --> 00:25:08,835
Anonymous comes in with 59,999 sats.

364
00:25:08,936 --> 00:25:10,855
I heard that, but you're kind of...

365
00:25:10,855 --> 00:25:12,075
Coming in hot with the booze.

366
00:25:13,736 --> 00:25:14,515
Anonymous, huh?

367
00:25:15,156 --> 00:25:16,195
Anonymous, did you mean for that?

368
00:25:16,255 --> 00:25:16,575
Let me know.

369
00:25:16,916 --> 00:25:19,575
Curious if you have any new or revised recommendations

370
00:25:20,216 --> 00:25:21,555
for physical blockchain wallet

371
00:25:21,555 --> 00:25:23,535
and how many sats should someone consider

372
00:25:23,535 --> 00:25:25,315
offloading from exchanges like River or Fold?

373
00:25:25,815 --> 00:25:26,595
You know, not really.

374
00:25:26,775 --> 00:25:28,476
I still kind of think it matters to you.

375
00:25:28,815 --> 00:25:30,136
I'd say rough guidance would be somewhere

376
00:25:30,136 --> 00:25:32,656
between a million to more than that.

377
00:25:34,315 --> 00:25:35,515
Physical blockchain wallet.

378
00:25:36,295 --> 00:25:38,156
I still think, you know, the cold card's really good.

379
00:25:38,236 --> 00:25:39,695
I think that's probably one of the best out there.

380
00:25:40,295 --> 00:25:42,416
I've talked to the Bitbox folks for a bit.

381
00:25:42,455 --> 00:25:43,416
I like theirs too.

382
00:25:43,976 --> 00:25:45,455
There's also the Jade.

383
00:25:45,656 --> 00:25:46,495
I mean, these are sort of the ones

384
00:25:46,495 --> 00:25:47,535
that come to top of mind.

385
00:25:47,835 --> 00:25:50,255
I always appreciate hardware wallet recommendations.

386
00:25:50,955 --> 00:25:52,455
The things, here's what I'll tell you what I look for.

387
00:25:53,156 --> 00:26:02,863
I want something that going to work for me five 10 years down the road So hopefully it doesn have a battery that going to explode Hopefully it doesn need like internet connectivity necessarily directly

388
00:26:03,043 --> 00:26:03,683
Things like that.

389
00:26:03,923 --> 00:26:05,303
It can maybe work in an air gap way.

390
00:26:05,883 --> 00:26:09,663
So those are sort of the requirements that I sort of build from there.

391
00:26:10,583 --> 00:26:11,363
Thank you, Anonymous.

392
00:26:11,503 --> 00:26:12,703
Appreciate that big old boost.

393
00:26:13,043 --> 00:26:15,903
Hey, OB's back with 21,000 sats.

394
00:26:16,863 --> 00:26:18,383
21 gigawatts!

395
00:26:18,503 --> 00:26:20,023
No message, just value.

396
00:26:20,343 --> 00:26:21,123
Thank you, sir.

397
00:26:21,643 --> 00:26:24,823
Oppie 1984 is here with 4,080 sats.

398
00:26:28,243 --> 00:26:31,183
Oh, I was pro-Bitcoin prior to this,

399
00:26:31,263 --> 00:26:34,443
but Operation Chokepoint is what turned me into a Bitcoin hardliner.

400
00:26:35,043 --> 00:26:38,123
Also, first boost from my Start9 Albie Hub connected to Fountain.

401
00:26:38,563 --> 00:26:40,783
It took several sessions with ChatGPT to figure it out,

402
00:26:40,783 --> 00:26:43,103
but if you're reading this, then it worked.

403
00:26:43,323 --> 00:26:44,203
It did work.

404
00:26:44,463 --> 00:26:45,643
Well done, Oppie.

405
00:26:45,703 --> 00:26:46,383
Well done.

406
00:26:46,523 --> 00:26:48,063
B-O-O-S-T.

407
00:26:48,683 --> 00:26:49,183
Well done.

408
00:26:49,843 --> 00:26:50,403
That's great.

409
00:26:51,003 --> 00:26:53,103
Love it when it's coming in from your self-hosted node.

410
00:26:54,303 --> 00:26:56,343
Stay tuned for the BIP 110 update, Abhi.

411
00:26:56,903 --> 00:26:59,003
Tomato comes in with 9,000.

412
00:26:59,103 --> 00:26:59,443
What's that?

413
00:26:59,783 --> 00:27:01,543
It's over 9,000!

414
00:27:02,183 --> 00:27:03,523
I got to try this web boost option.

415
00:27:03,623 --> 00:27:06,323
I can buy coffee and pints at a few places using Lightning.

416
00:27:06,463 --> 00:27:08,643
I would definitely use it more if places accepted it.

417
00:27:08,923 --> 00:27:11,323
If I can keep my walking around sats in one place

418
00:27:11,323 --> 00:27:13,503
rather than split across fountain in my normal spending wallet,

419
00:27:13,623 --> 00:27:14,223
it will be great.

420
00:27:14,463 --> 00:27:15,703
Well, Tomato, it worked.

421
00:27:15,923 --> 00:27:16,903
Thank you very much.

422
00:27:17,383 --> 00:27:18,343
I agree.

423
00:27:18,763 --> 00:27:20,683
If I go to a place that's got a square terminal,

424
00:27:20,923 --> 00:27:22,343
I've got a little bit of spending sats

425
00:27:22,343 --> 00:27:23,643
like I use for boosts and other things.

426
00:27:23,703 --> 00:27:24,543
I'm going to use it for that.

427
00:27:24,963 --> 00:27:25,523
It's not a lot.

428
00:27:26,103 --> 00:27:27,763
You know, quickly in, quickly out kind of a thing.

429
00:27:27,823 --> 00:27:28,783
You know what I'm saying, Tomato.

430
00:27:29,043 --> 00:27:29,983
You know what I'm saying.

431
00:27:30,703 --> 00:27:31,563
Thank you for the boost.

432
00:27:32,403 --> 00:27:36,803
Code 27 is here with a row of ducks, 2,222 satoshis.

433
00:27:38,223 --> 00:27:39,603
The people that don't boost sats

434
00:27:39,603 --> 00:27:41,843
because they're afraid of the tax implications make me sad.

435
00:27:41,923 --> 00:27:43,443
If the government outlaws holding Bitcoin,

436
00:27:43,443 --> 00:27:45,163
these are the people that will sell, apparently.

437
00:27:45,603 --> 00:27:47,123
At what point does your moral duty

438
00:27:47,123 --> 00:27:51,323
supersede your fear of legal consequences.

439
00:27:51,943 --> 00:27:52,923
Yeah, I think it's also just,

440
00:27:53,043 --> 00:27:54,883
it's a matter of, you know,

441
00:27:54,903 --> 00:27:56,103
how you do your accounting too

442
00:27:56,103 --> 00:27:56,963
and all that kind of stuff.

443
00:27:57,083 --> 00:27:58,303
Everybody has their different approaches.

444
00:27:58,883 --> 00:28:00,223
I don't do tax advice,

445
00:28:00,223 --> 00:28:02,463
but I certainly boost podcasts.

446
00:28:03,143 --> 00:28:04,643
But I, yeah, there's a, you know,

447
00:28:04,703 --> 00:28:06,403
also these things change over time too.

448
00:28:06,483 --> 00:28:07,623
And if you're holding for 20 years,

449
00:28:07,683 --> 00:28:09,823
these policies will change in that time period.

450
00:28:10,663 --> 00:28:11,203
All right.

451
00:28:11,323 --> 00:28:12,083
Thank you, Code 27.

452
00:28:12,803 --> 00:28:15,883
Gene Bean's back with 5,781 sets.

453
00:28:15,883 --> 00:28:21,923
seen as the fiat is converted to sats and honor splits i think uh i think i just report sats as

454
00:28:21,923 --> 00:28:27,543
total yeah it's totally appropriate uh i'm not necessarily well so the fiat isn't necessarily

455
00:28:27,543 --> 00:28:32,343
being converted to sats yet i haven't decided what the path is for that because the network

456
00:28:32,343 --> 00:28:36,403
needs to spend fiat and i'd rather spend the fiat than spend the sats because we haven't had

457
00:28:36,403 --> 00:28:41,683
any sponsors in some of the other shows for what are we on like six seven months now uh with some

458
00:28:41,683 --> 00:28:42,363
minimal sponsoring.

459
00:28:43,263 --> 00:28:44,543
So, yeah.

460
00:28:44,763 --> 00:28:46,183
But I do foresee a future

461
00:28:46,183 --> 00:28:46,963
where that is the case.

462
00:28:49,663 --> 00:28:50,783
I hear noises.

463
00:28:51,103 --> 00:28:52,403
I hear noises in the background.

464
00:28:53,063 --> 00:28:53,883
Watching for subtle hints

465
00:28:53,883 --> 00:28:54,823
at the show's episode art

466
00:28:54,823 --> 00:28:55,703
is oddly entertaining.

467
00:28:55,823 --> 00:28:57,103
Oh, Greg, I'm glad you like it.

468
00:28:57,523 --> 00:28:58,863
I love, I can now connect

469
00:28:58,863 --> 00:28:59,823
Cast-O-Matic directly

470
00:28:59,823 --> 00:29:00,683
to my Albi Hub

471
00:29:00,683 --> 00:29:01,583
with Noster Wallet Connect.

472
00:29:01,743 --> 00:29:02,763
That is awesome.

473
00:29:02,903 --> 00:29:03,783
Man, Cast-O-Matic.

474
00:29:03,883 --> 00:29:04,823
Good job, folks.

475
00:29:05,303 --> 00:29:06,203
Thanks for the updates, Gene.

476
00:29:06,303 --> 00:29:07,163
Always love hearing from you.

477
00:29:07,783 --> 00:29:08,463
Ace Ackerman's here

478
00:29:08,463 --> 00:29:09,643
with a row of ducks.

479
00:29:10,523 --> 00:29:11,383
I don't know about

480
00:29:11,383 --> 00:29:13,483
these BTC Sessions guys.

481
00:29:13,623 --> 00:29:14,803
They seem a bit out there.

482
00:29:15,063 --> 00:29:15,823
Break out some clips

483
00:29:15,823 --> 00:29:16,843
from the Bitcoin community's

484
00:29:16,843 --> 00:29:17,623
version of Alex Jones,

485
00:29:17,723 --> 00:29:18,243
Simon Dixon.

486
00:29:18,643 --> 00:29:19,583
Now that guy can tell

487
00:29:19,583 --> 00:29:20,223
a good story.

488
00:29:20,343 --> 00:29:20,923
Oh yeah? Okay.

489
00:29:21,603 --> 00:29:22,203
I don't remember

490
00:29:22,203 --> 00:29:23,663
what the clip was about last week.

491
00:29:24,863 --> 00:29:25,843
I do not remember.

492
00:29:26,263 --> 00:29:27,083
But there's so much Bitcoin,

493
00:29:27,203 --> 00:29:28,303
I watched so much Bitcoin media

494
00:29:28,303 --> 00:29:29,123
in one week

495
00:29:29,123 --> 00:29:30,223
that I don't even necessarily remember

496
00:29:30,223 --> 00:29:31,303
what made it into the show or not.

497
00:29:32,243 --> 00:29:33,723
It's unbelievable.

498
00:29:34,143 --> 00:29:34,743
I was just wondering

499
00:29:34,743 --> 00:29:36,023
what it does to my nervous system.

500
00:29:36,643 --> 00:29:37,723
Probably makes it sharper,

501
00:29:38,063 --> 00:29:38,603
more attuned,

502
00:29:38,983 --> 00:29:40,483
and makes me a better Bitcoiner, right?

503
00:29:40,483 --> 00:29:44,463
I mean, some people flex, they watch or listen to 40 hours of podcasts.

504
00:29:45,703 --> 00:29:46,503
Rookie numbers.

505
00:29:47,863 --> 00:29:48,643
Rookie numbers.

506
00:29:50,623 --> 00:29:51,823
Thank you for the boost, Ace.

507
00:29:52,003 --> 00:29:52,643
Nice to hear from you.

508
00:29:53,003 --> 00:29:56,163
J-Cube comes in with one, two, three, four, five Satoshis.

509
00:29:56,283 --> 00:30:00,323
So the combination is one, two, three, four, five.

510
00:30:00,403 --> 00:30:01,763
And it's a web boost.

511
00:30:02,343 --> 00:30:03,203
This is awesome.

512
00:30:03,303 --> 00:30:03,983
Thanks for building it.

513
00:30:04,003 --> 00:30:05,963
So far, I've called it the Stay Humble Summer.

514
00:30:06,223 --> 00:30:06,663
Nice.

515
00:30:07,663 --> 00:30:10,323
Stacks, the Summer of Stack and Stay Humble of Summer.

516
00:30:10,483 --> 00:30:11,503
Stay humble summer.

517
00:30:11,803 --> 00:30:12,643
Stay humble summer.

518
00:30:12,703 --> 00:30:13,143
My favorite.

519
00:30:13,783 --> 00:30:14,603
That's really good.

520
00:30:14,623 --> 00:30:14,983
J cube.

521
00:30:15,063 --> 00:30:15,483
Thank you.

522
00:30:16,103 --> 00:30:19,003
Orange mark comes in with 5,000 Satoshers.

523
00:30:19,143 --> 00:30:19,803
Tough little ship.

524
00:30:20,603 --> 00:30:20,983
Little.

525
00:30:21,663 --> 00:30:22,243
No message.

526
00:30:22,463 --> 00:30:23,103
Just value.

527
00:30:23,563 --> 00:30:24,703
Thank you very much.

528
00:30:24,883 --> 00:30:25,743
Appreciate that.

529
00:30:27,743 --> 00:30:28,183
Malrix.

530
00:30:28,703 --> 00:30:29,203
Sorry, Mal.

531
00:30:29,423 --> 00:30:30,183
Mal Styrix.

532
00:30:30,503 --> 00:30:31,063
15,000.

533
00:30:31,063 --> 00:30:33,023
I'm sorry.

534
00:30:33,323 --> 00:30:35,243
You make me want to be a better man.

535
00:30:35,323 --> 00:30:35,763
50,000.

536
00:30:35,763 --> 00:30:36,503
15,000 stats.

537
00:30:36,583 --> 00:30:38,603
Hey, Chris, sending some love in these crazy times.

538
00:30:38,603 --> 00:30:40,063
Bitcoin is more important now than ever.

539
00:30:40,483 --> 00:30:42,743
And using it for value is the best way to demonstrate its worth.

540
00:30:43,143 --> 00:30:43,943
Completely agree.

541
00:30:44,503 --> 00:30:47,403
Sorry, I butchered your name because I, you and I, same page.

542
00:30:47,643 --> 00:30:48,283
Thank you for that.

543
00:30:48,943 --> 00:30:52,803
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 5,678 satoshs.

544
00:30:52,863 --> 00:30:54,003
You're doing a good job.

545
00:30:54,003 --> 00:30:55,923
In 2020, I was trying to buy a house.

546
00:30:56,083 --> 00:30:58,963
And when the global economy shut down and everyone went into lockdown,

547
00:30:59,503 --> 00:31:01,083
I thought the house prices would fall.

548
00:31:01,623 --> 00:31:02,283
But they didn't.

549
00:31:02,543 --> 00:31:04,403
They went higher than I could have ever imagined.

550
00:31:04,643 --> 00:31:05,783
And I didn't understand why.

551
00:31:06,203 --> 00:31:08,163
So I took it upon myself to find out why.

552
00:31:08,163 --> 00:31:09,863
and I learned about how money really works

553
00:31:09,863 --> 00:31:12,183
and what quantitative easing and money printing were.

554
00:31:12,663 --> 00:31:14,023
A couple of friends told me about Bitcoin,

555
00:31:14,183 --> 00:31:16,343
so I decided to find out for myself and how it works.

556
00:31:16,563 --> 00:31:18,143
And that took me down the rabbit hole.

557
00:31:18,703 --> 00:31:21,103
That is a good story, Kiwi, and one I can relate to.

558
00:31:22,223 --> 00:31:23,663
Thank you very much for sending that in.

559
00:31:24,203 --> 00:31:24,823
Nice to hear from you.

560
00:31:25,563 --> 00:31:28,503
All right, Cypher Citizens here with $10 in fiat.

561
00:31:28,683 --> 00:31:30,023
The traders love the vol.

562
00:31:30,223 --> 00:31:31,303
Love the web boost option.

563
00:31:31,303 --> 00:31:33,563
I use it occasionally to zap your Nostra notification,

564
00:31:33,703 --> 00:31:35,883
but I don't think you ever added those zaps to your totals.

565
00:31:36,323 --> 00:31:37,783
Yeah, I don't know how to do that.

566
00:31:38,163 --> 00:31:39,763
But I do look forward to your shows every week.

567
00:31:39,843 --> 00:31:41,143
Perhaps maybe I will one day.

568
00:31:42,183 --> 00:31:43,783
Maybe the machine could figure it out.

569
00:31:44,063 --> 00:31:44,783
This is the way.

570
00:31:44,903 --> 00:31:45,263
I don't know.

571
00:31:46,023 --> 00:31:46,363
I don't know.

572
00:31:46,483 --> 00:31:48,343
Your inner child's here with a member boost,

573
00:31:48,483 --> 00:31:51,443
the hard bet membership boost as the market forced piece

574
00:31:51,443 --> 00:31:54,163
isn't on the boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com site,

575
00:31:54,603 --> 00:31:55,863
even though I'm listening on Fountain.

576
00:31:56,163 --> 00:31:56,523
Hmm.

577
00:31:56,783 --> 00:31:57,483
Did it not update?

578
00:31:58,623 --> 00:32:00,943
It does take a bit for all the feeds to update.

579
00:32:00,943 --> 00:32:02,163
There is a delay.

580
00:32:02,943 --> 00:32:04,763
Yeah, I see market forced piece right now.

581
00:32:05,263 --> 00:32:06,223
Yeah, there is a bit of a delay.

582
00:32:06,383 --> 00:32:07,963
So it'll show up on Fountain first.

583
00:32:08,163 --> 00:32:11,783
and then it'll generate on jupiterbroadcasting.com,

584
00:32:12,223 --> 00:32:13,603
and then it'll show up on the boost page.

585
00:32:13,683 --> 00:32:16,103
So there's a bit of an automated processing sequence,

586
00:32:16,103 --> 00:32:17,863
and if you're really Johnny on the spot, inner child,

587
00:32:18,443 --> 00:32:19,863
you won't see it.

588
00:32:19,903 --> 00:32:21,843
But it doesn't matter really if you boost.

589
00:32:22,563 --> 00:32:24,943
I think I still capture it if you boosted.

590
00:32:25,003 --> 00:32:26,103
So you boosted the hard bet,

591
00:32:26,163 --> 00:32:27,563
and I still captured it in this episode.

592
00:32:27,643 --> 00:32:29,063
So it still works, you know what I mean?

593
00:32:29,643 --> 00:32:31,043
But I will keep an eye out

594
00:32:31,043 --> 00:32:32,603
just to make sure that doesn't get too weird.

595
00:32:32,943 --> 00:32:33,943
Thanks for letting me know.

596
00:32:34,243 --> 00:32:35,783
Thank you, everybody, who boosted the show,

597
00:32:35,863 --> 00:32:37,123
and thank you, everybody, who streamsats.

598
00:32:37,123 --> 00:32:39,423
24 of you streamed those sats

599
00:32:39,423 --> 00:32:43,223
and you stacked 31,958 satoshis.

600
00:32:43,283 --> 00:32:44,463
Not too bad at all.

601
00:32:44,523 --> 00:32:44,983
Thank you.

602
00:32:45,683 --> 00:32:46,483
That's pretty nice.

603
00:32:49,343 --> 00:32:50,783
Bringing it all together

604
00:32:50,783 --> 00:32:53,903
when you convert the fiat to sats

605
00:32:53,903 --> 00:32:54,883
and all of that,

606
00:32:55,083 --> 00:32:58,623
which we converted at a 1,681 sats

607
00:32:58,623 --> 00:32:59,423
to USD rate,

608
00:33:00,003 --> 00:33:05,723
this episode stacked 314,753 satoshis.

609
00:33:05,723 --> 00:33:07,383
that's not too bad at all

610
00:33:07,383 --> 00:33:15,223
thank you everybody who supports the show with a boost or a membership either through fountain or

611
00:33:15,223 --> 00:33:21,003
jupiter.party i really love the interaction but also like i was just thinking about it again this

612
00:33:21,003 --> 00:33:26,703
morning like there is just no conflict of interest here uh if i if i mess up and give you bad

613
00:33:26,703 --> 00:33:31,383
information the boosts go down and if i do a good job and continue to try to mine good information

614
00:33:31,383 --> 00:33:32,483
and do my proof of work,

615
00:33:32,763 --> 00:33:33,503
the boosts go up

616
00:33:33,503 --> 00:33:35,143
and you guys return the value to the show.

617
00:33:35,443 --> 00:33:37,183
And it is a cycle that just,

618
00:33:37,663 --> 00:33:40,183
it really would be so, so much better

619
00:33:40,183 --> 00:33:44,363
if even 10% of our media adopted it.

620
00:33:44,483 --> 00:33:44,963
You know what I mean?

621
00:33:44,983 --> 00:33:47,923
Like if just 10% adopted this model,

622
00:33:48,383 --> 00:33:51,463
think about just the change in trust

623
00:33:51,463 --> 00:33:53,943
and information quality that would be out there.

624
00:33:54,603 --> 00:33:56,523
So thank you everybody who supports the show.

625
00:33:56,963 --> 00:33:58,623
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com

626
00:33:58,623 --> 00:34:00,723
or a podcasting 2.0 app.

627
00:34:00,723 --> 00:34:03,723
that'll do it for you as well. And I really do appreciate the support.

628
00:34:14,783 --> 00:34:20,103
All right, a quick FUD corner in the updates. No actual hard FUD yet.

629
00:34:21,143 --> 00:34:23,983
But I like to tell you what's coming before it hits you in the face.

630
00:34:23,983 --> 00:34:33,803
And this week, I think yesterday, actually, President Trump signed an executive order to spend more printed money on quantum research.

631
00:34:37,231 --> 00:34:38,791
to stay ahead of the pack.

632
00:34:38,871 --> 00:34:39,931
We're way ahead right now.

633
00:34:39,991 --> 00:34:40,911
We'll keep it that way.

634
00:34:41,511 --> 00:34:42,731
The second order I'm signing

635
00:34:42,731 --> 00:34:43,931
directs federal agency

636
00:34:43,931 --> 00:34:46,271
to transition to what is called

637
00:34:46,271 --> 00:34:49,171
quantum cryptography.

638
00:34:49,831 --> 00:34:51,311
Does anybody know what that is?

639
00:34:52,151 --> 00:34:53,691
You're going to hear very soon.

640
00:34:53,991 --> 00:34:54,811
Yeah, I think you will.

641
00:34:54,811 --> 00:34:57,211
I think as money starts to spill

642
00:34:57,211 --> 00:34:58,611
into this kind of research,

643
00:34:59,671 --> 00:35:02,371
the FUD machine will probably ramp up.

644
00:35:02,471 --> 00:35:03,211
So brace yourself.

645
00:35:03,351 --> 00:35:04,531
More quantum FUD is coming.

646
00:35:04,871 --> 00:35:06,131
Sticking with Trump for a moment,

647
00:35:06,131 --> 00:35:11,311
And this I was I was complaining about this to friends and family all week, you guys.

648
00:35:11,391 --> 00:35:13,491
So I have to do I have to do it right here on the show.

649
00:35:14,171 --> 00:35:26,791
Last week, I laid out my thesis that economic conditions forced the United States into a bad deal with Iran and that they were essentially capitulating because they couldn't push it any further with the energy markets and the bond market.

650
00:35:27,851 --> 00:35:33,431
And it's not totally radical, but it's kind of me putting myself out there as far as an opinion goes and an analysis.

651
00:35:33,651 --> 00:35:35,551
Right. It's kind of I am putting myself out there.

652
00:35:35,551 --> 00:35:37,751
is that is not a mainstream analysis.

653
00:35:37,951 --> 00:35:39,431
I'm not the only one who thinks it, probably.

654
00:35:40,031 --> 00:35:44,291
But I was really chuffed because, I don't know,

655
00:35:44,371 --> 00:35:46,671
two hours after I published the show,

656
00:35:47,471 --> 00:35:49,331
President Trump held a press conference,

657
00:35:50,251 --> 00:35:52,811
and he just kind of came out and admitted

658
00:35:52,811 --> 00:35:55,331
to what my thesis was laying out.

659
00:35:55,651 --> 00:35:57,011
I'm going to get bad press. I know that.

660
00:35:57,371 --> 00:35:59,031
Now, if I did the opposite,

661
00:35:59,191 --> 00:36:02,191
if I went out and continued to bomb them for another four,

662
00:36:02,251 --> 00:36:03,571
just bomb the hell out of them,

663
00:36:03,571 --> 00:36:10,591
I get bad press on that. No, there's nothing I can do. But what this does is it allows the ships to go.

664
00:36:11,391 --> 00:36:18,211
If we keep bombing, those ships won't be going. And you're talking about 500, 600, 700 million

665
00:36:18,211 --> 00:36:23,911
dollars a day. It's a lot of money, a lot of money. That's why the world is okay. It's liquid.

666
00:36:24,051 --> 00:36:28,891
It's fine. Also, we run out of reserves in about four weeks. You know, there are reserves all over

667
00:36:28,891 --> 00:36:33,071
the world and we would really run out. And there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it.

668
00:36:33,071 --> 00:36:34,271
And you want to see Bedlam?

669
00:36:34,971 --> 00:36:39,011
So for all those so-called geniuses that want to show me how smart they are,

670
00:36:39,491 --> 00:36:42,891
ask them why didn't they blow up General Soleimani.

671
00:36:43,111 --> 00:36:48,231
Ask that of the general and a couple of other people that I like very much,

672
00:36:48,291 --> 00:36:49,231
but boy, are they wrong.

673
00:36:49,491 --> 00:36:49,811
Go ahead.

674
00:36:50,071 --> 00:36:52,111
He's saying that we would have had economic disaster.

675
00:36:52,631 --> 00:36:54,891
In another four weeks, we would have had total economic disaster.

676
00:36:55,611 --> 00:36:56,131
I don't know.

677
00:36:56,331 --> 00:36:59,831
That just strikes me as noteworthy, as worth observing.

678
00:36:59,831 --> 00:37:16,751
All right, let's talk about BIP-110, the reduced data temporary soft fork, which is a consensus change proposal that aims to temporarily restrict several data carrying constructs for 52,416 blocks, which is roughly one year after activation.

679
00:37:17,271 --> 00:37:17,511
All right.

680
00:37:17,951 --> 00:37:24,211
And mandatory signaling starts at block 961,632.

681
00:37:24,791 --> 00:37:29,471
Then the reduced data rules are activated for one year period of time after that.

682
00:37:29,831 --> 00:37:35,871
And they come active no later than, I believe, 965, 664 block.

683
00:37:36,511 --> 00:37:38,171
These are not the details we care about.

684
00:37:38,571 --> 00:37:45,611
What we care about is that we are very close because it's going to be about 45 days, depending on difficulty adjustments.

685
00:37:46,351 --> 00:37:58,011
And we are getting to the point where I think people that are running BIP 110 and NOTs should probably start considering a backup plan.

686
00:37:58,011 --> 00:38:01,111
because it doesn't look like this thing's going to go the way they want.

687
00:38:01,651 --> 00:38:03,251
I'm not sure. Things can always change.

688
00:38:03,971 --> 00:38:06,631
But I'm going to play a couple of clips, and then we're going to talk about this.

689
00:38:06,631 --> 00:38:09,671
Super Testnet was on Isabel Duke's YouTube channel,

690
00:38:09,871 --> 00:38:12,091
and they had about an hour and a half chat about BIP-110.

691
00:38:12,671 --> 00:38:17,511
But for our focus this week, Super gets into how BIP-110 plans to activate.

692
00:38:17,611 --> 00:38:20,131
I want us to kind of understand this for the rest of the conversation.

693
00:38:20,571 --> 00:38:22,971
Activated soft work work. What does that mean?

694
00:38:22,971 --> 00:38:29,851
yeah um in this case the way it's working or proposed to work is uh what they want before

695
00:38:29,851 --> 00:38:36,811
august before the user activated part starts is they want to get at least 55 percent of miners

696
00:38:36,811 --> 00:38:43,451
signaling that they are ready for this software and once 55 percent of miners have signaled that

697
00:38:43,451 --> 00:38:46,391
by creating blocks with this little message in them that says we're ready

698
00:38:46,391 --> 00:38:52,471
then they start enforcing the rules and they say now all blocks have to do it and if you're not

699
00:38:52,471 --> 00:38:56,791
if you're not ready, if you're mining and you're not ready for it, we start rejecting your blocks.

700
00:38:56,991 --> 00:39:02,851
So they're kind of doing like a combo plan, which is basically they're reducing that threshold of

701
00:39:02,851 --> 00:39:09,431
consensus of miners for a miner activated software down from 95, 85 percent, all the way down to 55,

702
00:39:09,711 --> 00:39:13,851
which is, you know, the lowest one that I think has ever been proposed. It might be the lowest

703
00:39:13,851 --> 00:39:18,071
that's like really conceivably possible, right? Because you need 50 percent at least to like

704
00:39:18,071 --> 00:39:22,411
make anything work. Theoretically, you need 50 percent plus one. Otherwise, it's not Bitcoin.

705
00:39:22,471 --> 00:39:48,311
Right, right, right, right. So they basically went on to the lowest possible target of consensus that you could have, which is like very close to the lowest possible controversial move. But is there kind of is again, the idea here is like, OK, we don't really care if it's like contentious, because then at that point, as long as we get that much, then we'll just do a user activated soft work on top. And then that will hopefully, in their opinion, maybe seal the deal or that's the hope.

706
00:39:48,311 --> 00:40:02,591
What they want to do is get 55% of miners on board, and their hope is that the other 45% will at least begrudgingly comply so that they don't end up on a minority fork of Bitcoin.

707
00:40:02,591 --> 00:40:18,231
If they don't reach 55% by August, then what they plan to do is start just on the BIP-110 nodes, just those ones, start rejecting miners' blocks, the majority of miners' blocks, and say, you need to start signaling.

708
00:40:18,771 --> 00:40:25,571
I think they say 100% of blocks in the August signaling period have to signal for BIP-110.

709
00:40:26,091 --> 00:40:28,151
Okay, so I see. I misunderstood before.

710
00:40:28,151 --> 00:40:39,151
So basically, there's the miner-activated software. They're going to try to get to 55% and basically hope that that creates enough pressure on the other miners who don't signal to cave, essentially.

711
00:40:39,271 --> 00:40:46,331
And we'll talk about what happens if they don't cave and what happens if you just have half the miners, you know, mining on one software client and the other on another.

712
00:40:46,971 --> 00:40:57,191
Let's hold that for now. But then they're, you know, kind of additionally, if they don't get to 55%, then they will go by user-activated software.

713
00:40:57,191 --> 00:41:18,832
The people running the BIP nodes will start rejecting blocks and they will hope that more nodes start following along following suit and basically kick out the miners who aren complying So Start9 was one of the node solutions pretty popular in our community

714
00:41:19,452 --> 00:41:25,092
that made it pretty front and center to switch to knots and then automatically signal for BIP-110.

715
00:41:25,872 --> 00:41:32,272
So Start9 was asked on X, what if BIP-110 fails? What will they do with all their users that they

716
00:41:32,272 --> 00:41:38,252
sort of guided to knots in BIP-110, are they going to give those users a path back to core?

717
00:41:39,572 --> 00:41:42,912
And Start9's response I found to be a little concerning. They said,

718
00:41:43,252 --> 00:41:48,352
quote, while it's more likely that people running core will need to quickly switch over to,

719
00:41:49,432 --> 00:41:52,612
well, sorry, I'll bring it up. I'll bring up the actual tweet.

720
00:41:53,532 --> 00:41:57,332
While it's more likely that people running core will need to quickly switch over to avoid forking

721
00:41:57,332 --> 00:42:01,652
themselves off the network, the inverse is also possible. So they're saying it's more likely that

722
00:42:01,652 --> 00:42:05,992
people running core are going to be the ones that get stranded and need to switch. We'll do our best

723
00:42:05,992 --> 00:42:09,572
to message to the options and risk the best we can, especially the activation height approaches.

724
00:42:09,992 --> 00:42:13,532
But I suspect there will be no shortage of information. We made it extremely easy to

725
00:42:13,532 --> 00:42:19,032
switch between Bitcoin implementations on StartOS 0.40 without needing to re-sync or reconfigure

726
00:42:19,032 --> 00:42:24,672
anything. It's just a button and its dependents like LND and CLN are satisfied either way.

727
00:42:25,252 --> 00:42:30,072
Okay, so I like that they're going to make it easy either way. What I don't like is that Start9

728
00:42:30,072 --> 00:42:34,272
thinks it's more likely that people running core are going to need to likely switch over to avoid

729
00:42:34,272 --> 00:42:41,892
forking themselves off the network. To me, that's delusional thinking. And I don't know, we're 45

730
00:42:41,892 --> 00:42:47,392
days out. I just don't see a lot of support for this thing, not from the miners or nodes. I see

731
00:42:47,392 --> 00:42:54,212
about 3,384 nodes. So about 12.6% of the nodes. That's a pretty good. Most of those are on tour.

732
00:42:54,312 --> 00:43:00,052
I'm not sure how trustworthy all those numbers are. The situation is a little more bleak when

733
00:43:00,052 --> 00:43:04,312
it comes to the mining side of things, I would bet a lot of the nodes we are seeing online

734
00:43:04,312 --> 00:43:05,892
are probably start nine nodes.

735
00:43:06,572 --> 00:43:08,532
Super Testnet gets into the mining side of things.

736
00:43:08,792 --> 00:43:14,632
And like he says, the amount of support we're seeing there probably isn't enough at this

737
00:43:14,632 --> 00:43:14,892
point.

738
00:43:15,392 --> 00:43:22,452
Epoch of the last 2016 blocks, every 2016 block is called a signaling period where miners

739
00:43:22,452 --> 00:43:25,372
can signal for softworks and nodes are expecting them to do this.

740
00:43:25,372 --> 00:43:30,592
In the current epoch, I think 14 blocks total have signaled out of 2016.

741
00:43:31,532 --> 00:43:33,752
Of course, we still have about 100 left to go.

742
00:43:33,972 --> 00:43:35,332
What does that math turn out to be?

743
00:43:35,452 --> 00:43:36,832
About one block per day.

744
00:43:37,132 --> 00:43:37,532
Okay.

745
00:43:37,652 --> 00:43:39,592
Out of 144 blocks per day.

746
00:43:39,652 --> 00:43:40,932
Oh, so that's less than a percent.

747
00:43:41,192 --> 00:43:42,792
That's quite a bit less than 1%.

748
00:43:42,792 --> 00:43:46,332
Okay, so quite a bit less than 1% of miners are signaling for this.

749
00:43:46,392 --> 00:43:49,372
In order for this to be miner activated, we would need at least 55.

750
00:43:51,872 --> 00:43:53,772
That's pretty rough odds.

751
00:43:53,772 --> 00:43:58,172
it's pretty risky and it's not going to be a good look for start 9 regardless of the fate of

752
00:43:58,172 --> 00:44:04,172
BIP 10 at this point as a platform they took a political position they helped users implement a

753
00:44:04,172 --> 00:44:09,992
risky default I think it'd be one thing if start 9 made an easy transition after BIP 110 was

754
00:44:09,992 --> 00:44:15,212
activated and if it was looking successful and it was needed but instead they attempted to use

755
00:44:15,212 --> 00:44:20,232
the start 9 user base to impact the outcome of all of this and that's just not what I want to

756
00:44:20,232 --> 00:44:26,572
see from a node OS. I don't like that. If it's, if it might be even an issue I agree with today,

757
00:44:26,572 --> 00:44:33,332
it might not be an issue I agree with in the future. And once BIP-110 becomes active in August,

758
00:44:33,572 --> 00:44:39,512
nodes enforcing it will start rejecting blocks that don't comply. So that means blocks that

759
00:44:39,512 --> 00:44:45,432
either don't signal support or don't follow the opportun limit are going to be rejected by BIP-110

760
00:44:45,432 --> 00:44:52,292
nodes. So unless there's a major increase in miner signaling, those nodes are going to have to wait

761
00:44:52,292 --> 00:44:58,512
for BIP-110 compliant blocks to be mined. They're going to wait around. And most miners so far seem

762
00:44:58,512 --> 00:45:04,572
like they're going to keep building on the regular chain. So the likely outcome is that the fork

763
00:45:04,572 --> 00:45:13,372
fails and BIP-110 ends up with a bunch of stranded nodes out there. And I think that the issue is

764
00:45:13,372 --> 00:45:19,352
where the miscalculation with BIP-110 is, is that it's not that most Bitcoiners want

765
00:45:19,352 --> 00:45:19,652
spam.

766
00:45:19,732 --> 00:45:20,732
We don't like spam.

767
00:45:21,692 --> 00:45:24,472
The core issue was always core.

768
00:45:25,512 --> 00:45:28,912
It was how they communicate and how they riled up the community.

769
00:45:31,572 --> 00:45:33,472
We're not seeing high fee rates.

770
00:45:33,532 --> 00:45:35,292
We're not seeing a massive spam issue.

771
00:45:36,212 --> 00:45:40,952
What we had is a problem with how core communicates and what features they focus on.

772
00:45:40,952 --> 00:45:46,032
we didn't ask for this massive, massive change.

773
00:45:46,172 --> 00:45:50,092
And it's frankly, if it ends up failing,

774
00:45:50,632 --> 00:45:51,912
in my estimation,

775
00:45:52,572 --> 00:45:54,692
it will have been nothing but a massive distraction

776
00:45:54,692 --> 00:45:55,952
from the core problem.

777
00:45:57,112 --> 00:45:59,152
Because while we're all debating BIP-110

778
00:45:59,152 --> 00:46:01,312
and if people are going to get stranded

779
00:46:01,312 --> 00:46:02,552
and yada, yada, yada,

780
00:46:02,732 --> 00:46:06,092
we're not actually addressing the very original issue

781
00:46:06,092 --> 00:46:07,372
that started all of this.

782
00:46:07,372 --> 00:46:13,312
luke in a weird way is actually preventing the core problem from being addressed

783
00:46:13,312 --> 00:46:18,472
which is probably actually an achievable problem we could probably address it at least to some degree

784
00:46:18,472 --> 00:46:23,892
that's the irony of all of this the bip 110 proponents they think they're the majority but

785
00:46:23,892 --> 00:46:28,892
they're the minority they have no hash power and they're trying to force a consensus change on

786
00:46:28,892 --> 00:46:35,752
bitcoin that if it were successful would prove that bitcoin can be radically changed by small

787
00:46:35,752 --> 00:46:41,292
groups, which would really mess up the whole thesis in a big way.

788
00:46:41,292 --> 00:46:46,532
I asked you earlier, what would make you change your Bitcoin analysis, your Bitcoin thesis?

789
00:46:48,012 --> 00:46:52,772
Well, I'd have to ask if BIP 110 passes, does that make you reconsider Bitcoin's long-term

790
00:46:52,772 --> 00:46:54,352
viability as a hard asset?

791
00:46:56,572 --> 00:47:00,512
I'll link to some good visuals and more information in the show notes for all of this.

792
00:47:00,512 --> 00:47:09,392
like i don't want to see weird arbitrary data stored on the blockchain i i would prefer only

793
00:47:09,392 --> 00:47:17,152
monetary use cases but there are legitimate uses that bip 110 will mess with wallets that are on

794
00:47:17,152 --> 00:47:22,652
the market today that create addresses for users that they don't even know are using certain

795
00:47:22,652 --> 00:47:28,032
features that bip 110 is going to break there are lightning nodes that are going to get messed up by

796
00:47:28,032 --> 00:47:33,372
this i know they don't like to admit it but it is real it could happen so the fork risks are high

797
00:47:33,372 --> 00:47:39,292
and instead of actually addressing the core issue we're debating this thing that's likely not going

798
00:47:39,292 --> 00:47:52,313
to go anywhere because these lunatics are in an information bubble on youtube and on x and they think they have they think they have the winning strategy here But the numbers so far don bear it out

799
00:47:53,014 --> 00:47:55,914
So I just don't see how BIP-110 becomes successful

800
00:47:55,914 --> 00:47:58,154
unless they change the rules around it.

801
00:48:00,173 --> 00:48:02,354
I could see some things getting addressed

802
00:48:02,354 --> 00:48:04,854
that would make BIP-110 a little more appealing to people,

803
00:48:04,974 --> 00:48:06,573
but I don't know if that's where they're at right now.

804
00:48:06,954 --> 00:48:07,873
I'd like to know your thoughts

805
00:48:07,873 --> 00:48:10,354
and if you're still sticking with it,

806
00:48:10,373 --> 00:48:11,274
if you're still running knots,

807
00:48:11,274 --> 00:48:15,454
and if you have any concerns with how political start nine has gotten in all of this.

808
00:48:16,394 --> 00:48:18,193
Okay, let's talk about something positive.

809
00:48:19,313 --> 00:48:22,454
This episode might have seemed like I was pretty negative on AI.

810
00:48:22,633 --> 00:48:26,474
And while I think the fiat games around it are getting riskier and stupider long term,

811
00:48:26,974 --> 00:48:30,693
I think Bitcoiners could be the ones that benefit some of the most from AI.

812
00:48:31,313 --> 00:48:31,974
I do.

813
00:48:32,154 --> 00:48:37,514
And Strike CEO Jack, he had a BTC prog talk that was finally posted online this week.

814
00:48:38,133 --> 00:48:39,173
It's a bit of a banger.

815
00:48:39,774 --> 00:48:41,414
It's nearly 50 minutes long.

816
00:48:42,594 --> 00:48:43,854
So I'll link to the whole thing.

817
00:48:43,933 --> 00:48:46,274
But I want to complete the loop on the AI topic for today.

818
00:48:47,113 --> 00:48:50,974
And why I think it's good news long term for Bitcoiners.

819
00:48:51,313 --> 00:48:53,633
So I'll play a couple of clips from Jack's talk.

820
00:48:53,933 --> 00:48:57,274
And then you can watch the rest of the whole gosh darn thing in the show notes if you want.

821
00:48:59,154 --> 00:49:01,454
So Bitcoin saves the time that we spent.

822
00:49:01,454 --> 00:49:05,334
But the question is, what about the time that we have left to spend?

823
00:49:06,774 --> 00:49:08,834
And this for me is the AI part.

824
00:49:09,173 --> 00:49:11,053
People are all doomsday about AI.

825
00:49:11,313 --> 00:49:11,794
I'm not.

826
00:49:12,353 --> 00:49:14,474
I truly believe it's going to usher in

827
00:49:14,474 --> 00:49:16,034
a new art renaissance for us.

828
00:49:16,813 --> 00:49:18,654
Of all the AI stories I could have done,

829
00:49:18,774 --> 00:49:21,654
whatever, Claude Bott, whatever, Sam Altman,

830
00:49:22,154 --> 00:49:23,553
this is my favorite.

831
00:49:24,553 --> 00:49:25,813
A dude and his dog.

832
00:49:26,573 --> 00:49:27,813
A man's best friend.

833
00:49:29,633 --> 00:49:32,454
This guy's dog was dying of cancer

834
00:49:32,454 --> 00:49:38,294
and he used AI to design a cancer treatment

835
00:49:38,294 --> 00:49:40,613
that was previously conceived to be impossible.

836
00:49:41,613 --> 00:49:43,353
How cool is that?

837
00:49:45,373 --> 00:49:49,334
Previously, you needed to be thousands of hours of research

838
00:49:49,334 --> 00:49:52,594
and dozens of doctors and hospital machinery.

839
00:49:53,034 --> 00:49:55,654
This took a civilization to do before.

840
00:49:56,334 --> 00:49:57,633
And this guy did it

841
00:49:57,633 --> 00:50:00,914
with like a couple hundred bucks of Claude tokens or whatever.

842
00:50:01,894 --> 00:50:02,894
That's unbelievable.

843
00:50:02,894 --> 00:50:09,733
and so AI does the other part of what we were promised.

844
00:50:10,954 --> 00:50:14,073
It multiplies what we can do with the time ahead.

845
00:50:17,133 --> 00:50:19,213
No, it's hard because I don't,

846
00:50:19,733 --> 00:50:22,534
I'm not trying to like pick out a certain profession

847
00:50:22,534 --> 00:50:23,373
and say they're bad.

848
00:50:23,454 --> 00:50:24,154
No one's bad.

849
00:50:24,213 --> 00:50:25,053
I love everybody.

850
00:50:25,733 --> 00:50:28,853
But like, I don't know if any kid grew up

851
00:50:28,853 --> 00:50:36,594
not wanting to be a professional athlete or a philosopher or an astronaut and land on the mood,

852
00:50:36,594 --> 00:50:41,214
but instead wanted to be in compliance and wanted to KYC people.

853
00:50:51,473 --> 00:50:55,334
And so my point is that AI does not replace human creativity.

854
00:50:55,553 --> 00:50:57,794
Human creativity is why we're here, guys.

855
00:50:57,794 --> 00:51:02,753
That's why I brought us to Florence 500 years ago.

856
00:51:04,834 --> 00:51:06,253
We're the creatives.

857
00:51:06,553 --> 00:51:07,473
Machines aren't creative.

858
00:51:07,674 --> 00:51:08,794
Machines don't have taste.

859
00:51:09,154 --> 00:51:13,193
Everything that ChatGBT creates for me that's art looks like shit.

860
00:51:14,334 --> 00:51:15,654
We make it beautiful.

861
00:51:16,834 --> 00:51:22,053
But what AI does do is it replaces the cognitive drudge, the slog.

862
00:51:22,674 --> 00:51:25,433
Ugh, I got to get up to work and go KYC people.

863
00:51:25,433 --> 00:51:39,253
Okay, so I'll save the end for you to watch, but my last clip, Jack brings it together. With AI, we have a new kind of abundance in some ways, if you will. And with Bitcoin, we have a way to capture that abundance.

864
00:51:39,253 --> 00:51:47,534
money we all had to try and survive so now that we have the tools i believe that humanity is about

865
00:51:47,534 --> 00:51:54,534
engineering a better world we engineered the better money we engineered intelligence accessible to

866
00:51:54,534 --> 00:52:04,473
everyone now what i think that's why i think this talk is going to be hopefully a little bit more

867
00:52:04,473 --> 00:52:09,473
hopeful and positive at the end, is I think the renaissance isn't coming. It's already here.

868
00:52:10,233 --> 00:52:15,113
I truly, genuinely believe that. I know it's a bear market. I know the vibes are low. I know

869
00:52:15,113 --> 00:52:21,353
times are tough, but I think a very terrifying chapter is ending. When Satoshi released that

870
00:52:21,353 --> 00:52:26,994
white paper, that was the end of the beginning and the beginning of what's now.

871
00:52:26,994 --> 00:52:38,473
just a few more AI examples you know a 23 year old kid used his AI to solve a 60 year old math

872
00:52:38,473 --> 00:52:46,774
problem this is remarkable to me truly like genuinely awe-staggering

873
00:52:48,914 --> 00:52:54,573
or open claw I mean listen everyone in the world now has a personal assistant

874
00:52:54,574 --> 00:53:01,453
does anyone know this is my friend Roya does anyone know Roya

875
00:53:01,453 --> 00:53:09,414
Roya is one of the most incredible women I've ever met she used bitcoin years ago to pay Afghan

876
00:53:09,414 --> 00:53:14,953
women who were not allowed to have a bank account totally debanked people complained about the

877
00:53:14,953 --> 00:53:20,634
volatility oh bitcoin's so volatile you don't care about volatility when your government's

878
00:53:20,634 --> 00:53:26,634
depressing you and removing your ability to use any money at all. And after the Taliban took over,

879
00:53:27,754 --> 00:53:33,713
reporters said that those same woman used Bitcoin to save, earn value, transfer with each other,

880
00:53:33,713 --> 00:53:38,914
and actually start businesses and sustain a life. See, the revolution is here, in my opinion. It's

881
00:53:38,914 --> 00:53:42,654
already starting. It's not something we're hopeful about. It's not something we're waiting for.

882
00:53:42,814 --> 00:53:49,994
It's right now. What about El Salvador? This was the most dangerous country in the world.

883
00:53:50,634 --> 00:53:54,394
Civil wars, destruction of currency, mayhem, chaos, gangs.

884
00:53:55,233 --> 00:53:57,113
They found hope in this thing.

885
00:53:58,093 --> 00:54:00,433
Would you look a Salvadoran in the eye

886
00:54:00,433 --> 00:54:02,334
and say, we're waiting on the revolution?

887
00:54:04,733 --> 00:54:06,654
They are safe in their streets.

888
00:54:06,914 --> 00:54:08,113
Their country is growing.

889
00:54:09,034 --> 00:54:10,453
Their money is hard.

890
00:54:10,674 --> 00:54:11,554
Their life is good.

891
00:54:12,193 --> 00:54:13,494
The revolution is here.

892
00:54:14,613 --> 00:54:15,953
AI and Bitcoin are real.

893
00:54:15,953 --> 00:54:34,775
And my message to you guys is really do not get slogged down by what going on in the world today I truly believe that harmony in society will be restored when personal responsibility is valuable again

894
00:54:35,355 --> 00:54:38,235
Don't let these people get you down.

895
00:54:39,135 --> 00:54:41,555
We all now have access to intelligence.

896
00:54:42,255 --> 00:54:46,295
We have access to a computer that can do all white collar work for us.

897
00:54:46,295 --> 00:54:48,915
We have access to the hardest money ever conceived in mankind.

898
00:54:51,915 --> 00:54:55,055
We can engineer our way out of this.

899
00:54:55,315 --> 00:54:56,195
We can do it.

900
00:55:07,255 --> 00:55:09,315
Let's check in on the state of the network.

901
00:55:09,455 --> 00:55:13,235
I'm wrapping up at block height 955,210.

902
00:55:13,235 --> 00:55:18,835
Our price right now in U.S. dollars is $59,390 for one Bitcoin.

903
00:55:19,395 --> 00:55:23,395
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,684 sats to $1.

904
00:55:24,095 --> 00:55:32,015
We are now in a 52.9% decline from our all-time high 260 days ago right on the money.

905
00:55:33,635 --> 00:55:41,235
Retarget date for difficulty is June 26, 2026, with an estimated difficulty upwards adjustment of 5.9%.

906
00:55:41,235 --> 00:55:50,515
There are 26,765 reachable nodes on the network, and we are down 9.9% since our last episode.

907
00:55:51,175 --> 00:55:52,075
I don't care.

908
00:55:53,675 --> 00:55:54,755
Just don't go any lower.

909
00:55:56,855 --> 00:55:57,675
We'll see.

910
00:55:57,975 --> 00:56:00,535
We'll see if we can defend that 200-week moving average.

911
00:56:01,415 --> 00:56:04,215
But, next block, all on that.

912
00:56:04,775 --> 00:56:06,235
I think the state of the network is quite strong.

913
00:56:11,235 --> 00:56:18,315
All right. Well, if you made it this far, get the links this week in Bitcoin.show or they'll be right there in your podcast app.

914
00:56:18,455 --> 00:56:25,055
Let me know how I did. My goal is to not get distracted by the emotions or the politics around what's happening, but focus on the signal.

915
00:56:25,495 --> 00:56:29,835
So you can plan for yourself, your friends, your family, your business, your future, whatever it might be.

916
00:56:30,415 --> 00:56:39,115
So let me know how I did with a boost. Of course, I want to know what would make you change your market position on Bitcoin and what you think about the AI bubble stuff and anything else you want to comment on.

917
00:56:39,115 --> 00:56:40,375
Please do boost in.

918
00:56:41,175 --> 00:56:42,595
It's really my favorite part of the show.

919
00:56:42,695 --> 00:56:44,015
It's how we really stay connected.

920
00:56:44,435 --> 00:56:47,935
All right, so I'm going to leave you with a value for value track, as I always do.

921
00:56:48,255 --> 00:56:53,355
This one's for the summer of stack, or I guess the stay humble summer, right?

922
00:56:54,055 --> 00:56:55,955
It's Through the Fire by Nope.

923
00:56:56,215 --> 00:56:57,475
This one's for you Bitcoiners.

924
00:56:57,735 --> 00:56:59,655
I'll see you back here next week.

925
00:57:01,115 --> 00:57:04,975
The child looks like a funeral today.

926
00:57:04,975 --> 00:57:10,895
Half my friends already walked away

927
00:57:10,895 --> 00:57:17,315
My mom called twice, she saw it on the news

928
00:57:17,315 --> 00:57:23,175
Another talking head with nothing left to lose

929
00:57:23,175 --> 00:57:27,855
Telling everybody this is it, it's done

930
00:57:29,855 --> 00:57:33,455
Like they ain't said that since 2001

931
00:57:33,455 --> 00:57:39,955
I'm sitting in the dark, refreshing on my phone

932
00:57:39,955 --> 00:57:42,735
Watching everything I build just melts alone

933
00:57:42,735 --> 00:57:45,755
The doubt is getting louder, timeline full of jokes

934
00:57:45,755 --> 00:57:48,835
I'd be lying if I said it didn't sting a little, folks

935
00:57:48,835 --> 00:57:51,255
But I remember last time

936
00:57:51,255 --> 00:57:56,655
And the time before that

937
00:57:56,655 --> 00:58:01,755
So call me crazy, I done heard it all

938
00:58:01,755 --> 00:58:03,035
I've been through the fire

939
00:58:03,035 --> 00:58:04,355
I ain't gonna fall

940
00:58:04,355 --> 00:58:05,655
The dip don't scare me

941
00:58:05,655 --> 00:58:07,355
Now I know this road

942
00:58:07,355 --> 00:58:09,035
I've seen the other side

943
00:58:09,035 --> 00:58:10,355
And what it holds

944
00:58:10,355 --> 00:58:11,395
I'm still stacking

945
00:58:11,395 --> 00:58:14,415
I'm still stacking

946
00:58:14,415 --> 00:58:17,415
I'm still stacking

947
00:58:17,415 --> 00:58:23,455
See, everybody's smart

948
00:58:23,455 --> 00:58:25,975
When the line goes up

949
00:58:25,975 --> 00:58:29,075
But when it bleeds

950
00:58:29,075 --> 00:58:30,975
They turn and tell you

951
00:58:30,975 --> 00:58:31,995
That's enough.

952
00:58:33,415 --> 00:58:36,815
They never read the white paper, never ran a note.

953
00:58:37,035 --> 00:58:39,735
They just watched the ticker like that's all there is to know.

954
00:58:39,935 --> 00:58:43,075
But I fell in love with something they can't see.

955
00:58:43,235 --> 00:58:45,535
Ten minute blocks still ticking perfectly.

956
00:58:45,975 --> 00:58:47,595
So call me crazy.

957
00:58:48,075 --> 00:58:49,535
I done heard it all.

958
00:58:49,835 --> 00:58:51,055
I've been through the fire.

959
00:58:51,175 --> 00:58:52,335
I ain't gonna fall.

960
00:58:52,435 --> 00:58:53,535
The dip don't scare me.

961
00:58:54,035 --> 00:58:55,355
Now I know this road.

962
00:58:55,435 --> 00:58:57,035
I seen the other side.

963
00:58:57,035 --> 00:58:59,375
And what it holds, I'm still standing.

964
00:59:00,975 --> 00:59:02,375
I'm still stacking.

965
00:59:03,915 --> 00:59:05,355
I'm still stacking.

966
00:59:10,675 --> 00:59:13,635
Proof of work don't need your opinion.

967
00:59:13,935 --> 00:59:16,575
Difficulty just, it just keeps on spinning.

968
00:59:16,875 --> 00:59:19,515
21 million and they can't print more.

969
00:59:19,835 --> 00:59:22,255
That's a thing they never had an answer for.

970
00:59:22,375 --> 00:59:25,795
No president, no banker, no CEO.

971
00:59:25,795 --> 00:59:31,795
Can change a single line of what I already know

972
00:59:34,315 --> 00:59:48,935
They wrote the obituary 400 times

973
00:59:48,935 --> 00:59:51,735
Said it's tulip, said it's beanie, baby, said it's crime

974
00:59:51,735 --> 00:59:54,655
But every winter ends and something starts to grow

975
00:59:54,655 --> 00:59:56,355
And every cycle takes it somewhere

976
00:59:56,355 --> 00:59:57,695
They said it wouldn't go

977
00:59:57,695 --> 00:59:59,215
So when you see me buying

978
00:59:59,215 --> 01:00:00,855
While the whole world screams

979
01:00:00,855 --> 01:00:02,315
Just know I bet on math

980
01:00:02,315 --> 01:00:03,875
I don't bet on dreams

981
01:00:03,875 --> 01:00:08,455
So call me crazy

982
01:00:08,455 --> 01:00:10,715
Yeah, I heard it all

983
01:00:10,715 --> 01:00:12,015
I've been through the fire

984
01:00:12,015 --> 01:00:13,415
I ain't gonna fall

985
01:00:13,415 --> 01:00:14,835
The price one day

986
01:00:14,835 --> 01:00:16,235
It's gonna be unreal

987
01:00:16,235 --> 01:00:17,855
And all this pain

988
01:00:17,855 --> 01:00:19,295
Is how I know it's real

989
01:00:19,295 --> 01:00:20,415
I'm still stacking

990
01:00:20,415 --> 01:00:23,415
I'm still stacking

991
01:00:23,415 --> 01:00:26,375
I'm still stacking

992
01:00:26,375 --> 01:00:32,475
Still stacking

993
01:00:32,475 --> 01:00:35,655
Through the fire

994
01:00:35,655 --> 01:00:38,455
Still stacking

995
01:00:38,455 --> 01:00:44,055
I've seen this before

996
01:00:53,415 --> 01:00:55,475
you