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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 84.

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My name is Chris.

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That's ChrisLAS.com and JupiterBroadcasting.com.

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Things were going well.

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Since we got together last week, everything seemed to be kind of turning around.

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And then Sunday night, it just got a little wild.

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I was wrapping up Linux Unplugged and I decided to look at the Bitcoin price because Sunday is always a great time to check.

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It can kind of get a hint of how Monday morning is going to go.

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And so I pull up the old spot price and I saw a steep decline.

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And I knew something must be going on in the broader world.

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And, you know, when Bitcoin drops like that, it is always the canary in the coal mine.

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Now, Bitcoin traders woke up to a rough night.

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And a sudden liquidity shock in Asia sent Bitcoin down to $83,000, triggering panic and wiping out billions in long positions.

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But then the U.S. markets opened.

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Well, hold on, hold on.

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Let's not just blast past that first detail here.

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What happened Sunday was a signal.

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And I think we really need to understand that signal.

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So we're going to go over some fundamentals.

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And to do that, I want to just sort of set the scene.

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And let's think about something.

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Let's ask ourselves a question.

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Why has Bitcoin ripped to all-time highs during a Fed rate hike cycle and during quantitative tightening?

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All the haters said Bitcoin would only thrive in a low-rate market.

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They said it was the phenomenon of a low-rate policy and that without low rates, Bitcoin would die.

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But yet, Bitcoin got up to $126,000 during quantitative tightening during tighter Fed rates.

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Now, here we are at the end of a tightening cycle.

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Quantitative tightening is ending.

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Bitcoin's just within a couple of days of going to 100,000 or, you know, the other direction.

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So why?

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Why did Bitcoin pump during all of that?

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Well, you know the answer.

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It's always the liquidity.

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And today we want to talk about two big contributors.

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One was bad girl Yellen.

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The Treasury Secretary was the driver of liquidity in going to assets while the Fed was trying to tighten.

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I often referred to that as one foot on the gas, one foot was on the brake.

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And that was really true even after Yellen until the government shutdown.

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But there was another large factor that we need to zoom in on this week, because after

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all, Bitcoin is a worldwide asset and the market, the market's really good at finding

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cheap money plays.

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Earlier this year, I talked about the start of the yen carry trade unwind.

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And I noted this kind of thing would take time.

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Well, time flies.

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But Japan's latest numbers are not exactly fun.

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Japan's latest data shows the economy contracted 1.8% annualized in quarter three.

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That's the first drop in six quarters, which they suggest has been driven by tariff hit imports or exports for the U.S.

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Now, the newest 10-year JGB, that's their bond, hit 1.89%.

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Now, that is important because that's the highest level since mid-2008, i.e. the financial crisis.

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And that has been climbing for a while now, driven by looser fiscal policy.

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And then, you know, of course, that's always led to all kinds of market games.

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However, with the rates near zero, that made the yen very cheap for traders.

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And so we have a situation where it appears the Bank of Japan may be changing that policy.

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They may be raising rates.

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They've hinted towards that.

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And they're doing that same thing where the government is stimulating and the bank wants to tighten.

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Again, we have another bank and government conflict where there's a foot on the gas and a foot on the brake.

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And when the reality is, is the Bank of Japan is stuck between two really bad options.

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They're going to have ramifications for all of us.

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Now, most people don't know this, but the Bank of Japan owns around 7% to 8% of its entire stock market through ETF purchases.

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That's significant.

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That means that the Japanese government is basically a giant shareholder in its own economy.

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But when bond yields rise and debt becomes more expensive, they're being forced to sell equity to plug the holes.

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They must raise cash.

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This means selling stocks, in fact, billions worth of stocks.

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Selling stock pushes markets down.

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Falling markets push investor confidence down.

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Falling confidence pushes the yen up.

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And when the yen rises, well, the carry trade starts to blow apart.

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At this point, Japan's central bank is trapped in a brutal scenario.

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They could raise interest rates.

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That strengthens the yen.

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A stronger yen kills the carry trade, however.

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And a carry trade unwind causes global selling.

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But rising rates also make their government debt unaffordable.

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They push bond yields even higher.

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This crashes the bond prices,

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damages banks and balance sheets,

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and enforces even more asset sales.

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Option two, they could ease or they could stimulate.

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This weakens the yen.

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It keeps the carry trade alive,

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but it also pushes inflation higher,

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requires more money printing.

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This damages, of course, purchasing power,

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which we've talked about, the silent inflation.

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This weakens the yen, but it keeps the carry trade alive.

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But it also pushes inflation higher, requires more money printing, damages purchasing power, threatens their credibility as a nation, and risks a currency crisis.

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So that was basically the play since we talked about the yen carry trade.

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They just kept rates low.

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They kept the yen down, which helped the carry trade survive.

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But now the bank is warning the market that at their next meeting in December, they're likely going to start raising rates.

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That means the yen is going to start increasing in strength.

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And they really have no choice because they brought everyone to just about as much as they can bear when it comes to inflation.

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Here's a report from Japan.

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The yen has been getting steadily weaker against the dollar.

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That has big implications for the economy, businesses and households.

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That's right. And households are especially feeling the pinch as the weaker yen means higher prices for all sorts of imported goods from groceries to gasoline.

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Yuko Fukushima from our business desk joins us now to examine what's behind the weak yen. What could happen next?

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Yes, traders, investors, money managers are all watching the currency market closely as they see the yen getting close to the level where the government and the Bank of Japan intervened last year to prop it up.

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The yen toppled to a low not seen in 10 months last week.

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Their worries that the economic package rolled out by Prime Minister Takaichi Sanaya will lead to a worsening of Japan's finances.

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Yeah, so you got a prime minister that wants to pump and you got a central bank that wants to tighten.

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Where have we heard that before?

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And the Bank of Japan is really stuck.

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People are sort of at their limit of what they can afford to swallow.

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And so they have signaled in their December 18th and 19th policy meeting that they're likely going to hike the interest rate.

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That's freaking traders out.

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Markets are now pricing an 82% chance that the Bank of Japan will raise rates.

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And so you really need to understand the ramifications of this.

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This is why you tune into this podcast.

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There's going to be hedging.

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And some are hedging for a prolonged bear market, like all of 2026.

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Now, we'll get to that.

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But I thought a YouTube channel, Mind2Free, he lays it out.

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Now, he's got kind of an odd cadence and style.

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But if you lean into it and just kind of lock in, I think he really helps put things into perspective of why this matters.

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We need to unpack the mechanics of the carry trade to understand why a change in Japanese interest rates causes a stock market drop in New York.

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One must understand the mechanics of the carry trade.

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This is not a small niche strategy used by a few day traders. It is a colossal financial engine

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estimated by some analysts to be worth over $20 trillion in total global exposure. It is a

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mechanism that has provided a massive amount of liquidity to the world's financial system,

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acting as a hidden subsidy for risk-taking. The concept is deceptively simple. For decades,

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Japan has battled economic stagnation, a period often referred to as the lost decades. To combat

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this, the Bank of Japan maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rates at zero

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and at times even in negative territory. This meant that borrowing money in Japanese yen was

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effectively free. Institutional investors, hedge funds, and global banks recognized a golden

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opportunity. They could borrow billions of dollars worth of yen at mere zero percent interest.

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They would then take that borrowed capital, convert it into United States dollars or euros, and invest it in assets that offered a higher return.

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For example, an investor could borrow yen at 0% and buy United States treasury bonds yielding 4% or 5%.

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The difference between the borrowing cost and the investment return, the spread was pure profit.

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Of course, that's how it started. Nice, safe plays. But this became an institutional norm. It went on for years, well, decades. It went on forever. And so it just became expected, which meant they took more and more risk.

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But investors did not stop at safe government bonds.

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Emboldened by cheap leverage, they poured this borrowed money into the stock market,

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into real estate, and into speculative assets like cryptocurrency.

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Because the cost of borrowing was so low, they leveraged their positions, borrowing many times

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their actual capital base to maximize returns.

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You ever wonder where some of these institutions get all the money to buy these massive bags of Bitcoin?

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Some of it comes from this.

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I mean, it was sweet, easy money.

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You get super cheap money and then you turn around, you put into something that even if it only returns you a 10 percent return, like you has a massive spike and drop, you still win.

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However, for that trade to actually work, it relied on two pillars to remain profitable.

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profitable. Number one, the interest rate gap between Japan and the rest of the world

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has to remain wide. There has to be something to play there. And then number two, the yen has to

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remain weak against the dollar, obviously. If the yen strengthens, then the borrower has to pay back

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their yen loan with a more expensive currency, which will eat into their sweet, sweet degen

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profits. And I say degen, but this has been normalized by the industry because it's worked

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great for years. But those pillars are now crumbling with the Bank of Japan announcing

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they're likely going to raise rates, which will strengthen the yen. So the math is obvious here.

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The yen carry trade is going to break if they do this. We'll see, because at the same time,

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the government of Japan is set to stimulus mode. They're just trying to find ways to do stimulus.

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So it's hard to really see how this plays out. But in the short term, traders are going to hedge

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against this problem. Now, in the midterm, this puts more pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to

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not just lower rates, but possibly, possibly it puts pressure on them to begin quantitative easing

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once again. And I don't have to tell you that Bitcoin was really built for this. It doesn't

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mean everyone's going to understand it when it happens. Gold has a bit of a lead here, obviously.

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But the market is incentivized over time to find the best money. And Bitcoin is the hardest money

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ever created, and Bitcoin has time on its side. Well, that big old dip caused by the Japan news

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was totally erased by the capitulation of Vanguard. Bitcoin jumped 6% the day that Vanguard lifted

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their ETF ban, which was, I believe, Tuesday, within just 30 minutes of trading. The Bitcoin

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ETF volume on total, including BlackRock, surpassed $5.1 billion yesterday.

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Wow.

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Now, to really appreciate this, I think we should go back in time, if you will allow.

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I love myself a little time travel.

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We should go back in time to Vanguard in 2024, just about a year ago, crapping on Bitcoin

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and talking about why they would never offer products with Bitcoin.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs.

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Question came in, hey, we know you're not offering one.

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Have you changed your mind?

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What would it take for you to change your mind?

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This is Tim Buckley, the chairman and CEO of Vanguard.

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We don't plan to, and we don't, like,

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we're not going to change our minds around this

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unless the asset class changes For why First of all we don believe it belongs Like a Bitcoin ETF belongs in a long portfolio Someone saving for the retirement

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It's a speculative asset.

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That's exactly it.

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And the funds that we offer invest in asset class.

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I love the yes man who's paid to interview his boss

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that just sits there and agrees.

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That's exactly right, boss.

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You got it, boss.

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Someone's saving for the retirement.

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It's a speculative asset.

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That's exactly it.

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And the funds that we offer invest in asset classes

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that actually have underlying cash flow.

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So like we mentioned stocks,

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you're buying the forward earnings of a company.

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That's right.

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And that bond, right?

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As coupon and principal payment.

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Yeah, you're going to pay me something.

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And that thing has these elements

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that we've completely manufactured that pay us profits.

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I just, I can't wrap my head around an asset

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that just gains.

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Like these guys, these top tier finance people,

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when they start talking about Bitcoin,

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they seem to completely forget real estate exists,

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gold, other precious metals exist, oil, like the commodities are things like they just like,

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it's so incredible how they get locked into one dimensional thinking, even though presumably this

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guy is filthy rich because he's some kind of expert. That's right. And that bond, right?

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Has coupon and principal payment. Yeah, you're going to pay me something for lending you the

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money. Exactly. Right. So they both can be valued. And that's for us, we understand why they would

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rise up in a portfolio and the role they play and we can model them.

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We really prefer to have all of our clients' retirement live and die on the decisions of

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a few people in a couple of companies and the market whims of a president.

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That's what we really believe.

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Something like Bitcoin is just too volatile and it's not a store of value.

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It hasn't been.

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And it's very volatile.

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When stocks got hammered in recent crises, Bitcoin went right with them.

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Okay, so Austin Real Estate's at like a three-year low.

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Does that mean real estate's too volatile?

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Does that mean real estate's not a good investment?

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Does that mean real estate isn't a scarce asset?

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Uh-oh.

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Well, everybody sell your houses because real estate goes down sometimes.

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Ox got hammered in recent crises that Bitcoin went right with them.

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And so it is speculative, really tough to think about how it belongs in a long-term portfolio.

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Oh, it's tough. It's really tough.

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The traders love the vol.

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The best thing is, is Vanguard themselves released that video.

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That's not like a clip from like an interview.

225
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That's like something Vanguard produced and released on their website to explain why they would never offer Bitcoin products.

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Well, flash forward to today.

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The institutional guys, boy, a year and a half ago, two years ago, they wouldn't touch this stuff.

228
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And now suddenly they're in it, including the world's second largest asset manager, Vanguard.

229
00:16:32,944 --> 00:16:40,164
Yeah, that news this morning with all the other talk about all of this volatility in crypto markets largely uncovered.

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Vanguard with $11 trillion in assets and management announcing this morning that they will custody not only crypto related ETFs, but Bitcoin itself.

231
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Why is this important? Liz, Vanguard has 50 million customers in the United States.

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That's 50 million new retail accounts that will have the ability to have exposure to Bitcoin and the larger cryptocurrencies.

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You got to really understand this is huge because when Vanguard enters a space, they're considered like the conservative actor.

234
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And so it makes people reevaluate their models.

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It makes all of the other analysts rethink the trade.

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I mean, it's hard to explain the gravity of Vanguard in these types of markets.

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There's a few things on Wall Street that are a guarantee.

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You've heard me say this before.

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When you have regulatory clarity and institutions know whether something is a stock, an option, fish or fowl, and you can hold it in your retirement account, it drives demand and appreciation asset value.

240
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We expect that to happen.

241
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And also on the same day that Vanguard released the ETFs, Bank of America and I think what they also own Merrill Lynch or Merrill Lynch owns them, $1.5 trillion under management.

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They announced that they're not only going to allow their clients to hold and trade crypto, but they're actually going to recommend that some of their clients hold up to 4 percent Bitcoin in their portfolios.

243
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Bank of America.

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Bank of America will begin endorsing crypto ETFs for select clients.

245
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The firm's chief investment office will start recommending a digital asset allocation

246
00:18:11,944 --> 00:18:17,064
of 1 to 4 percent to interested Merrill, private bank and Merrill Edge clients.

247
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Beginning January 5th, the company's advisors will be able to recommend a handful of Bitcoin

248
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ETFs from different asset managers. The company's head of investment solutions group says the update

249
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came from a growing client demand for access to digital assets, while its chief investment

250
00:18:32,824 --> 00:18:38,004
advisor emphasized the allocation is for, quote, investors with a strong interest in thematic

251
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innovation and comfort with elevated volatility. Yeah, right. I mean, again, the traders love the

252
00:18:45,144 --> 00:18:51,664
vol. They sure do. So that's pretty huge. And then today, $12 trillion fund manager,

253
00:18:51,724 --> 00:18:55,444
these are just crazy numbers, Charles Schwab says they're going to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum

254
00:18:55,444 --> 00:19:01,904
trading in early 2026. So I believe that now makes eight out of the 10 major banks, maybe even nine

255
00:19:01,904 --> 00:19:06,824
of the 10 major banks in the United States now offering crypto trading, lending, or holding.

256
00:19:07,424 --> 00:19:13,224
And what's really wild about that is most of them flipped their stance in just the last six months.

257
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That would be fast. I used to work at a bank. It was a regional bank, and they are so slow.

258
00:19:21,264 --> 00:19:27,704
Fast for a bank is four or five years. Six months, that's really, really unheard of. It's

259
00:19:27,704 --> 00:19:33,244
something else. And the impact of that is noted. And the internet never forgets.

260
00:19:34,244 --> 00:19:39,724
So BlackRock has announced that the iBit Bitcoin ETF has become their most profitable product.

261
00:19:40,564 --> 00:19:45,964
Let that sink in for a second. And the hilarious thing about that is that whenever CEO Larry Fink

262
00:19:45,964 --> 00:19:51,064
is out and about, who was, as you know, a loud public hater of Bitcoin, he has to continually

263
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eat public crow. And just about every public event he goes to, he gets asked questions that

264
00:19:57,384 --> 00:20:01,784
put him on the spot about his previous critical stances. And I'm not kidding. I probably have half

265
00:20:01,784 --> 00:20:06,904
a dozen of these clips in the archive. But this one, this one's from today. And I'm going to put

266
00:20:06,904 --> 00:20:10,764
this link in the show notes in case you want to play it for some of your doubt or family or friends

267
00:20:10,764 --> 00:20:13,564
at the holiday event. I mean, why not be that guy, right?

268
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Called crypto an index for money laundering. BlackRock and thieves and thieves. Yes.

269
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money laundering and thieves you now have the biggest bitcoin etf so what happened here

270
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i have very strong views but that doesn't mean i'm not wrong i but by having strong views you

271
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have to test yourself and ask yourself and you know in my role i see you know thousands of

272
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clients a year i have you know governmental leaders and we have these conversations that

273
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my thought process always evolves.

274
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And this is a very glaring public example

275
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of a big shift in my opinion.

276
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Well, did you feel the shift?

277
00:21:14,584 --> 00:21:16,824
Do things feel a little looser?

278
00:21:18,564 --> 00:21:25,524
The Fed officially ended quantitative tightening the first time since 2019 on December 1st.

279
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Now, usually when that happens, it takes a little while.

280
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We don't have a lot of data here, but it tends to take a little while for that to trickle down to everybody else.

281
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But at the same time that was transitioning, the U.S. Federal Reserve had to inject $13.5 billion into the banking system through the overnight repurchase agreements.

282
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This is crazy.

283
00:21:44,784 --> 00:21:47,504
You could almost call it stealth easing.

284
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And it's the second largest liquidity injection since the COVID pandemic.

285
00:21:51,964 --> 00:22:07,524
So with tightening wrapping down and the Fed having to make the second largest injection since COVID, it probably is fairly easy to argue the quantitative easing, i.e. money printing, could be just around the corner.

286
00:22:08,024 --> 00:22:10,144
And your DGEN buddy Tom Lee thinks so.

287
00:22:10,984 --> 00:22:11,464
I am.

288
00:22:11,464 --> 00:22:16,764
I think the biggest tailwind that's going to emerge in the next couple of weeks is around

289
00:22:16,764 --> 00:22:17,544
the central bank.

290
00:22:17,644 --> 00:22:24,004
The Fed is set to cut in December, but also today is the day that quantitative tightening

291
00:22:24,004 --> 00:22:24,684
ends.

292
00:22:24,824 --> 00:22:28,984
You know, the Fed's been shrinking its balance sheet since April 2022.

293
00:22:29,944 --> 00:22:32,424
It's been a pretty big headwind for market liquidity.

294
00:22:33,244 --> 00:22:38,764
The last time we had an end to QT, quantitative tightening, was September 2019.

295
00:22:38,764 --> 00:22:46,804
And if you look back at that period, the markets really responded well, I think within three weeks rallied more than 17%.

296
00:22:46,804 --> 00:22:57,244
So I do think the timing of QT ending, which is now essentially QE starting in the Fed, and at a time when November kind of was topsy-turvy.

297
00:22:57,384 --> 00:23:00,804
So I think people got cautious, but now have to performance chase.

298
00:23:00,904 --> 00:23:04,044
And then you have a really typically a seasonal tailwind.

299
00:23:04,044 --> 00:23:08,444
So I'm pretty bullish into December, even with maybe the first day being rocky.

300
00:23:08,764 --> 00:23:16,004
It is really unbelievable the amount of what you would call tailwinds that have built up for Bitcoin over the last year when it comes to institutional support.

301
00:23:16,004 --> 00:23:23,324
But yet there really seems to be concern that we're going into a prolonged bear market.

302
00:23:23,964 --> 00:23:27,844
And Sailor's strategy has still been under heavy scrutiny this week.

303
00:23:28,484 --> 00:23:32,684
Their market cap is now worth $10 billion less than their Bitcoin holdings.

304
00:23:32,684 --> 00:23:42,484
That puts the company's market cap at around $45 billion, and strategy holds 650,000 Bitcoin-ish, around $55 billion or somewhat more than that.

305
00:23:42,784 --> 00:23:43,904
So that's incredible.

306
00:23:44,604 --> 00:23:58,664
And one of the things they've done to ease concerns is they've set up what they're calling a dollar reserve of $1.44 billion to back various payout plans they have for their different instruments should we enter a prolonged bear market.

307
00:23:58,664 --> 00:24:07,364
And now with that seemingly for the first time, they are being clear at what point would strategy have to sell its Bitcoin?

308
00:24:07,664 --> 00:24:17,984
If there is literally a three year sustained Bitcoin down cycle, a three year sustained cycle where MNAV trades below 1x, then we may have to sell Bitcoin.

309
00:24:17,984 --> 00:24:23,464
At this point in time, it's the end of 2025. We're talking about 2029 where that may be the case.

310
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And we have the Bitcoin for a reason to protect the company, to protect our shareholders.

311
00:24:28,004 --> 00:24:29,504
and if we have to sell them.

312
00:24:31,004 --> 00:24:32,584
So if we had to sell, we would,

313
00:24:32,864 --> 00:24:36,184
but only after a prolonged bear market to 2029.

314
00:24:36,744 --> 00:24:40,064
But they are kind of bracing for that.

315
00:24:40,544 --> 00:24:43,044
And I'm not sure if it's just to ease investors' concerns

316
00:24:43,044 --> 00:24:47,564
or if they think maybe the sell-off of indexes in February

317
00:24:47,564 --> 00:24:49,064
is going to rock them hard,

318
00:24:49,064 --> 00:24:52,124
but they actually seem to be bracing for a Bitcoin dip.

319
00:24:58,004 --> 00:25:05,244
I think people just need to get a bit of a grip here.

320
00:25:05,644 --> 00:25:08,304
This drawdown, this is nothing so far, kids.

321
00:25:08,364 --> 00:25:09,444
It could be a lot worse.

322
00:25:09,744 --> 00:25:11,244
It could also get a lot better.

323
00:25:11,784 --> 00:25:14,304
And yet you have strategy bracing for that prolonged drawdown.

324
00:25:14,304 --> 00:25:19,724
JP Morgan just released a product last week that assumes Bitcoin goes through a rocky 2026.

325
00:25:20,264 --> 00:25:24,344
And whales continue to sell Satoshi-era coins like the four-year cycle is right on the money.

326
00:25:24,344 --> 00:25:34,284
And we even have some of the chart influencers and casters out there who are crying crypto winter and selling off their Bitcoin stashes and then going on social media and telling everybody about it.

327
00:25:34,844 --> 00:25:40,204
This I mean, this happens in Bitcoin every time we get to a 30 percent or in the range of a 30 percent drawdown.

328
00:25:40,364 --> 00:25:42,404
The demons, they just come out.

329
00:25:42,824 --> 00:25:45,024
And I think everybody needs to just put things into perspective.

330
00:25:45,244 --> 00:25:45,804
All right.

331
00:25:45,924 --> 00:25:47,884
What do you make of this decline when it comes to crypto?

332
00:25:47,944 --> 00:25:50,324
We keep talking about these leveraged positions being unwound.

333
00:25:50,384 --> 00:25:52,944
Does that change the narrative of crypto's rise at least this year?

334
00:25:52,944 --> 00:25:57,404
the fact that there's so much leverage in this market? Yeah, so I think you need to put it in

335
00:25:57,404 --> 00:26:03,144
perspective where really since the start of last year, Bitcoin is still up over 100% since then.

336
00:26:03,244 --> 00:26:08,884
And over the past few years, I mean, it's been a tremendously performing asset. And so I think

337
00:26:08,884 --> 00:26:13,924
you also have to remember that, look, a lot of people in Bitcoin have been around it or have been

338
00:26:13,924 --> 00:26:19,524
in it for years. And typically what you kind of see at the later stages of a Bitcoin bull market

339
00:26:19,524 --> 00:26:23,764
is you start to have these big, long-term, chunky holders start to align.

340
00:26:24,224 --> 00:26:25,704
And again, this happens every cycle.

341
00:26:25,904 --> 00:26:27,804
And we have started to see it in this cycle.

342
00:26:28,204 --> 00:26:30,424
We really started to see that really pick up in July.

343
00:26:30,784 --> 00:26:34,744
And it's typically just a transfer of wealth from, I would say,

344
00:26:34,844 --> 00:26:36,884
stickier owners to maybe less stickier owners.

345
00:26:36,884 --> 00:26:37,464
That's it.

346
00:26:37,624 --> 00:26:40,824
Or, you know, from hands that get, you know, the latest hands to diamond hands.

347
00:26:41,384 --> 00:26:42,944
This is how it works in Bitcoin.

348
00:26:43,804 --> 00:26:47,704
And in 20 years, when you stack some sets and people say,

349
00:26:47,704 --> 00:26:49,944
oh, you got rich from Bitcoin, that was easy.

350
00:26:50,364 --> 00:26:51,524
Play them these episodes.

351
00:26:52,424 --> 00:26:54,744
How else do you distribute an asset like Bitcoin?

352
00:26:54,984 --> 00:26:56,224
It doesn't have a central planner.

353
00:26:56,684 --> 00:26:58,324
If it never had drawdowns,

354
00:26:58,464 --> 00:26:59,884
we'd live in a world of sailors

355
00:26:59,884 --> 00:27:01,764
who just sit on piles of coins.

356
00:27:02,184 --> 00:27:04,084
It's better for the market long-term

357
00:27:04,084 --> 00:27:05,964
to have these redistributions.

358
00:27:06,444 --> 00:27:08,204
And if Bitcoin were to just pump and pump

359
00:27:08,204 --> 00:27:12,444
and say it went from 30K to 60K to 100K to 150K

360
00:27:12,444 --> 00:27:13,664
and it just kept cooking,

361
00:27:14,524 --> 00:27:17,024
you should brace for the most wild retrace

362
00:27:17,024 --> 00:27:21,844
you've seen in your Bitcoin lifetime, because when it cooks like that, it drops like that.

363
00:27:21,844 --> 00:27:25,904
So when you blow off a little steam on the way up, you give us a better foundation.

364
00:27:25,904 --> 00:27:29,864
We build out because we transfer from the weak hands to the stronger hands.

365
00:27:29,864 --> 00:27:43,468
And you redistribute coins from long whales to new hands And it always worked this way Bitcoin down 5 I haven got a clue why I presume someone smarty pants out there will say it because of some forced liquidation It because of so and so

366
00:27:43,848 --> 00:27:49,968
But when an asset class can move so aggressively and I haven't seen any decent copy, and I'm

367
00:27:49,968 --> 00:27:55,688
going to say this on CNBC, on the FT, on Reuters, on Bloomberg, on every one of those major

368
00:27:55,688 --> 00:27:57,268
market sources out there.

369
00:27:57,448 --> 00:27:58,108
Let's pause here.

370
00:27:58,268 --> 00:28:00,868
I love how he hasn't seen any major copy.

371
00:28:01,168 --> 00:28:01,988
By love, I mean hate.

372
00:28:01,988 --> 00:28:03,948
That means he's not doing his own research.

373
00:28:04,068 --> 00:28:06,428
He's waiting for somebody to explain it to him, first of all.

374
00:28:06,528 --> 00:28:13,188
On CNBC, on the FT, on Reuters, on Bloomberg, on every one of those major market sources out there.

375
00:28:13,288 --> 00:28:19,128
I've seen no one coming up with a conclusive idea of why a major, major asset is down 6%.

376
00:28:19,128 --> 00:28:20,848
That, for me, is the problem with crypto.

377
00:28:21,088 --> 00:28:24,608
The fact that random events can move so aggressively and no one's got a clue why.

378
00:28:25,528 --> 00:28:27,128
Maybe he should listen to This Week in Bitcoin.

379
00:28:27,668 --> 00:28:28,788
I mean, this guy is ridiculous.

380
00:28:28,788 --> 00:28:38,068
First of all, a 5.8% move in a liquid globally traded asset that goes 24-7 that can respond to the Bank of Japan news causing an unwind in one of the largest trades in history.

381
00:28:38,908 --> 00:28:40,928
That's not a nothing burger there, buddy.

382
00:28:41,008 --> 00:28:42,108
And it's pretty understandable.

383
00:28:42,588 --> 00:28:46,628
These people, especially guys like this, they need to reframe their thinking.

384
00:28:46,868 --> 00:28:51,728
They're thinking in terms of stock markets that have circuit breakers, that have hours.

385
00:28:51,728 --> 00:28:56,648
and realistically, if we look at Bitcoin

386
00:28:56,648 --> 00:28:58,788
and the performance it's had over the last year,

387
00:28:59,068 --> 00:29:03,108
it's the new buyers, the new hands that are hurting.

388
00:29:03,668 --> 00:29:05,968
Investors holding Bitcoin for one to three months,

389
00:29:06,408 --> 00:29:09,568
they're in about a 20% to 25% loss right now.

390
00:29:10,028 --> 00:29:12,208
That is the deepest drawdown of the current cycle,

391
00:29:12,268 --> 00:29:12,948
no doubt about it.

392
00:29:13,348 --> 00:29:14,688
It's uncomfortable for them.

393
00:29:15,088 --> 00:29:16,868
But if those idiots were buying Bitcoin

394
00:29:16,868 --> 00:29:18,488
and expecting huge returns in three months,

395
00:29:18,508 --> 00:29:19,708
they were buying the wrong thing.

396
00:29:20,508 --> 00:29:23,348
It's just the reality of Bitcoin.

397
00:29:23,508 --> 00:29:24,228
I mean, you're lucky.

398
00:29:24,588 --> 00:29:27,988
It tends to work out, but you're lucky if you get a decent return in four years.

399
00:29:28,748 --> 00:29:30,308
You know, that's kind of the target I set.

400
00:29:30,448 --> 00:29:33,428
But I also wouldn't buy Bitcoin for a four-year timeline either.

401
00:29:33,428 --> 00:29:36,968
You know, eight years, 10 years, get a few cycles.

402
00:29:37,788 --> 00:29:39,908
I think it's, you know, hold it for longer than that.

403
00:29:39,908 --> 00:29:50,548
And guys like that ranting about a 5.8% drop, which, by the way, which, by the way, made all up and then some the next day.

404
00:29:50,688 --> 00:29:53,308
And you didn't hear anything from that guy when that happened.

405
00:29:53,888 --> 00:29:55,788
OK, it was down 5.8%.

406
00:29:55,788 --> 00:29:57,168
The next day it was up 6%.

407
00:29:57,168 --> 00:29:58,968
And where's that guy's rant then?

408
00:30:00,248 --> 00:30:01,468
So here's my question.

409
00:30:01,648 --> 00:30:03,208
Are you buying the dip for the holidays?

410
00:30:03,788 --> 00:30:04,768
Are you giving any Bitcoin?

411
00:30:05,768 --> 00:30:10,828
When it started turning around later last week, I realized, oh, crap, did I miss my window to get Bitcoin cheap?

412
00:30:10,868 --> 00:30:13,168
So I'm kind of glad I might have another window here.

413
00:30:13,528 --> 00:30:14,648
Maybe I'll have one, a long one.

414
00:30:14,688 --> 00:30:15,028
I don't know.

415
00:30:15,248 --> 00:30:18,648
But I like to get a little bit of Satoshis for the kids every holiday.

416
00:30:18,888 --> 00:30:21,588
I put it in a wallet for them, make sure it's all safe.

417
00:30:21,588 --> 00:30:24,208
And as they get older, I teach them how to custody that.

418
00:30:24,888 --> 00:30:27,888
And it's a nice thing because every year they get to look at their Bitcoin.

419
00:30:27,988 --> 00:30:28,928
It's generally a little bit higher.

420
00:30:29,208 --> 00:30:31,308
And it starts to click what that means.

421
00:30:31,828 --> 00:30:32,928
And I'm wondering if you give any Bitcoin.

422
00:30:32,928 --> 00:30:35,908
Like I've thought about giving it to like my dad.

423
00:30:36,488 --> 00:30:39,488
I think I did years ago and it just didn't really seem like it landed, I think.

424
00:30:39,548 --> 00:30:40,968
And I'm thinking about maybe my father-in-law.

425
00:30:41,048 --> 00:30:42,408
But again, he's kind of a gold guy.

426
00:30:42,408 --> 00:30:42,988
I just don't know.

427
00:30:43,448 --> 00:30:45,448
So do you give any Bitcoin for the holidays?

428
00:30:46,108 --> 00:30:47,748
Boost in and let me know.

429
00:31:02,928 --> 00:31:08,148
We got a lot more show coming up.

430
00:31:08,208 --> 00:31:10,828
So let me just mention, you can support the show by doing what you do.

431
00:31:11,128 --> 00:31:12,908
You want to give some sats for the holidays?

432
00:31:13,068 --> 00:31:16,068
River's a great way to do it, either to yourself or to somebody else.

433
00:31:16,228 --> 00:31:17,868
Just use my link in the show notes.

434
00:31:18,308 --> 00:31:20,648
Now, if you're all about self-custody, the Bitcoin will.

435
00:31:20,808 --> 00:31:22,708
It's available in the U.S. and Canada.

436
00:31:22,988 --> 00:31:24,088
They're all about self-custody.

437
00:31:24,188 --> 00:31:25,088
They don't even host a wallet.

438
00:31:25,228 --> 00:31:26,068
You do all of it.

439
00:31:26,068 --> 00:31:29,548
Now, you want to spend some sats, like on Amazon or hundreds of other places.

440
00:31:29,548 --> 00:31:35,028
you can go from lightning to gift card in seconds with the bitcoin company link in the show notes

441
00:31:35,028 --> 00:31:39,608
then if you want to stack sats as you pay bills fold cards the way to go there and if it's time

442
00:31:39,608 --> 00:31:43,428
to get access to some of your bitcoin value without selling it salt lending is where i go

443
00:31:43,428 --> 00:31:48,508
they have rates that are great they have the amount that's what i'm trying to think of the

444
00:31:48,508 --> 00:31:52,388
amount of the loan you can take is like five thousand dollars out instead of stripes like

445
00:31:52,388 --> 00:31:56,968
minimum ten thousand strikes i mean it's just there are a lot of things i like about it and

446
00:31:56,968 --> 00:31:57,948
It's something you should always look into.

447
00:31:58,108 --> 00:32:02,048
But if you want access to some of that Bitcoin value without selling, you know, take a look at Salt Lending.

448
00:32:02,408 --> 00:32:04,588
I still think they have one of the more competitive products out there.

449
00:32:04,988 --> 00:32:07,068
Those links, yeah, they're in the show notes.

450
00:32:26,968 --> 00:32:30,708
All right, we do have some boosts to get into this week.

451
00:32:30,768 --> 00:32:35,468
No baller boost this week, but we have plenty of great messages.

452
00:32:36,148 --> 00:32:40,748
And one of them is from Marius February, and he comes in with 10,000 sats.

453
00:32:43,608 --> 00:32:47,208
I believe that makes you probably the first booster of the episode.

454
00:32:47,328 --> 00:32:50,468
And he comes in with a, you know, like a hang tight kind of symbol.

455
00:32:50,648 --> 00:32:52,048
Boy, I'm tired. I don't know.

456
00:32:52,308 --> 00:32:53,968
My wife's been sick, so I haven't slept much.

457
00:32:54,308 --> 00:32:55,988
But I think that's like what the hang loose.

458
00:32:55,988 --> 00:32:59,908
hang loose. That's what it is. Thank you very much. I think that makes you our first booster,

459
00:33:00,048 --> 00:33:05,568
Mary. So I appreciate that. And then Gene Beans here with a row of ducks coming in right after

460
00:33:05,568 --> 00:33:09,528
says plus one for going from exchange to cold storage via liquid and happy Thanksgiving,

461
00:33:09,688 --> 00:33:15,168
Chris. Right, Gene? It's a great setup. It's a great way to consolidate your UTXOs and kind of

462
00:33:15,168 --> 00:33:20,588
just, you know, forget about that history, that transaction history and get a totally, totally

463
00:33:20,588 --> 00:33:22,868
new transaction.

464
00:33:23,128 --> 00:33:24,588
And what I have been doing is like,

465
00:33:24,888 --> 00:33:26,888
you know, just small bits in here, like when I get

466
00:33:26,888 --> 00:33:29,028
zaps or something like that, I'll consolidate for a while

467
00:33:29,028 --> 00:33:30,968
in liquid. And then when it gets

468
00:33:30,968 --> 00:33:33,088
to a larger amount, I'll move it over.

469
00:33:33,348 --> 00:33:34,888
And it's not very complicated.

470
00:33:35,008 --> 00:33:36,728
It's pretty quick. And now

471
00:33:36,728 --> 00:33:38,748
this process, I've probably been using it for a couple of years.

472
00:33:38,808 --> 00:33:40,968
It's worked really good for me. So plus one to your plus

473
00:33:40,968 --> 00:33:41,968
one, Gene Bean.

474
00:33:43,348 --> 00:33:44,728
And thank you for the boost.

475
00:33:45,268 --> 00:33:47,268
OB's here with 16,000 SATs.

476
00:33:50,588 --> 00:33:53,148
Blue Wallet. This is the way.

477
00:33:53,408 --> 00:33:55,448
You know, I don't think Blue Wallet gets enough love.

478
00:33:55,868 --> 00:33:57,408
I was just thinking about this yesterday.

479
00:33:57,528 --> 00:33:58,368
Blue Wallet is pretty good.

480
00:33:58,608 --> 00:33:59,308
This is the way.

481
00:33:59,368 --> 00:34:01,208
It's not my favorite, but it's a pretty solid wallet.

482
00:34:01,668 --> 00:34:02,128
Thank you, Obi.

483
00:34:03,368 --> 00:34:06,588
Nakamoto 6102 is back with 3,500 sats.

484
00:34:07,208 --> 00:34:08,188
Thanks for the value.

485
00:34:08,408 --> 00:34:09,608
Well, thank you, Nakamoto.

486
00:34:10,968 --> 00:34:12,808
Sohang's back with 2,000 sats.

487
00:34:13,568 --> 00:34:15,968
Okay, Chris, I figured out why I listen to this here show

488
00:34:15,968 --> 00:34:17,188
despite not being into Bitcoin.

489
00:34:17,788 --> 00:34:19,688
I, too, reject mainstream economics,

490
00:34:19,688 --> 00:34:22,528
although with more hammer and stickle approach, sickle.

491
00:34:23,288 --> 00:34:26,968
And hearing you call it mainstream economics on their BS is somewhat cathartic.

492
00:34:27,368 --> 00:34:29,228
Economics are the original hallucinators.

493
00:34:30,368 --> 00:34:31,828
You heard it here first, he says.

494
00:34:32,208 --> 00:34:34,828
Anyways, I recently discovered my Steam inventory is worth like $100.

495
00:34:35,368 --> 00:34:39,648
So I may cash that out to a self-hosted Nebula VPN-powered Bitcoin node.

496
00:34:40,268 --> 00:34:41,268
Just got to find the time.

497
00:34:41,588 --> 00:34:43,208
I think you'd really like the process.

498
00:34:43,448 --> 00:34:46,488
And it gives you a sense of independence too, which is a really powerful thing.

499
00:34:47,108 --> 00:34:47,448
Let me know.

500
00:34:47,488 --> 00:34:48,228
And I'm glad you're listening.

501
00:34:48,228 --> 00:34:48,888
Thank you, sir.

502
00:34:48,888 --> 00:34:49,868
Appreciate the boost.

503
00:34:51,768 --> 00:34:53,508
All right, Faraday Padora's here.

504
00:34:53,588 --> 00:34:54,888
Coming in hot with the boost.

505
00:34:54,908 --> 00:34:55,708
2,000 sats.

506
00:34:56,008 --> 00:34:57,908
I'm DCA-ing once a day at the moment.

507
00:34:58,288 --> 00:35:00,548
What I would love to do is be able to DCA every block.

508
00:35:00,688 --> 00:35:06,488
Just a little sats, symbolically buying my silver of the new sats being mined.

509
00:35:07,088 --> 00:35:07,448
Apologize.

510
00:35:07,708 --> 00:35:08,328
I'm a little loopy.

511
00:35:08,708 --> 00:35:09,908
You know, I like this idea.

512
00:35:09,988 --> 00:35:14,448
I suppose you could just set it to, you know, 9, 10 minutes, and on average, you know, you'd probably get it.

513
00:35:14,788 --> 00:35:16,188
I think Strike will let you do that.

514
00:35:16,188 --> 00:35:19,428
You are going to have a lot of little UTXO, so you will want to consolidate.

515
00:35:19,748 --> 00:35:20,508
That's for sure.

516
00:35:21,048 --> 00:35:24,988
I did try it for a little while before I really thought about it,

517
00:35:25,008 --> 00:35:26,748
just because I love the idea of every hour.

518
00:35:27,188 --> 00:35:28,728
When things were really moving, just like every hour.

519
00:35:29,348 --> 00:35:30,388
It's a big mess.

520
00:35:31,508 --> 00:35:32,328
Thanks, Faraday.

521
00:35:32,628 --> 00:35:33,328
Appreciate it.

522
00:35:33,608 --> 00:35:34,408
Hey, Turbo's here.

523
00:35:34,908 --> 00:35:36,788
2,121 sats.

524
00:35:37,788 --> 00:35:39,508
Who does your retro music?

525
00:35:39,768 --> 00:35:42,268
Are there any of the tracks on here so good?

526
00:35:42,488 --> 00:35:43,188
Retro music.

527
00:35:43,868 --> 00:35:47,788
Are you talking about the show song or are you talking about the music I play at the end is always linked in the show notes?

528
00:35:47,908 --> 00:35:50,468
And the show music is created by Mr. Ronald Jenkins.

529
00:35:51,188 --> 00:35:51,788
And thanks, Turbo.

530
00:35:52,328 --> 00:35:53,108
Nice to hear from you.

531
00:35:53,788 --> 00:35:55,028
Hodler's here with a row of ducks.

532
00:35:55,088 --> 00:35:56,868
That's 2,222 sats.

533
00:35:58,028 --> 00:35:58,768
Greetings from Iceland.

534
00:35:58,988 --> 00:36:00,028
Chris, you're absolutely killing it.

535
00:36:00,108 --> 00:36:00,948
Keep up the good work.

536
00:36:01,208 --> 00:36:03,048
Well, thank you for sending the value my way.

537
00:36:03,448 --> 00:36:04,228
I appreciate that.

538
00:36:04,748 --> 00:36:08,488
Army guys here with 6,500 sats.

539
00:36:09,548 --> 00:36:12,968
With Strike, they typically, I was asking last week about how Strike withdrawals work.

540
00:36:13,188 --> 00:36:19,348
With Strike, they typically do batch withdrawals, but unless you pay it for the next block fee, withdrawal will get paid out with others.

541
00:36:19,688 --> 00:36:28,508
If 10 people, say, take out 500,000 sats and you move 1 million sats, you'll see your 1 million as one of the outputs of the transaction when viewing it on the blockchain viewer.

542
00:36:28,868 --> 00:36:29,728
Keep up the good work, sir.

543
00:36:30,148 --> 00:36:30,928
Enjoy your show.

544
00:36:31,088 --> 00:36:32,088
And I'm enjoying the dip.

545
00:36:32,568 --> 00:36:32,968
Good.

546
00:36:33,388 --> 00:36:33,628
Yeah.

547
00:36:33,728 --> 00:36:35,588
So they batch that is what the exchange calls it.

548
00:36:35,588 --> 00:36:44,528
This is how they save on fees, and one of the ways they can offer free withdrawals to your cold storage is they batch it up with a bunch of other people.

549
00:36:44,828 --> 00:36:52,868
So 10, 15, 20, 30, 40, 100 people around the same time withdrawal that you do, they just process all of that once and pay the fee once.

550
00:36:53,348 --> 00:36:54,988
And he also comments, Andreas is the goat.

551
00:36:55,608 --> 00:36:56,508
People will put garbage.

552
00:36:56,868 --> 00:36:58,368
Bible verses, wait, he already said that.

553
00:36:59,348 --> 00:37:05,128
Yeah, he didn't need to say that part for the message to go through, but Andreas has always been very strong in his opinions.

554
00:37:05,588 --> 00:37:09,408
And he often sneaks a little bit of wit and humor in there, too.

555
00:37:10,108 --> 00:37:12,028
Ace Ackerman's back with a row of ducks.

556
00:37:13,428 --> 00:37:15,768
Ace says, no more price predictions from me.

557
00:37:15,868 --> 00:37:19,648
After making the most technical analyst look foolish for this four-year cycle,

558
00:37:19,748 --> 00:37:21,968
I'm just going to sit back and watch the show.

559
00:37:22,468 --> 00:37:23,708
And that really is the plan, right?

560
00:37:24,328 --> 00:37:26,008
Good for you, Ace. Nice to hear from you.

561
00:37:26,548 --> 00:37:29,488
Hey, Retrogears here with 5,000 sats.

562
00:37:29,948 --> 00:37:31,288
The traders love the vol.

563
00:37:31,448 --> 00:37:34,188
Hey, Chris, I've been looking for a product in Australia similar to Fold

564
00:37:34,188 --> 00:37:35,128
that you always mention.

565
00:37:35,128 --> 00:37:37,168
So I've settled on Coinjar.

566
00:37:37,668 --> 00:37:40,388
They have a prepaid MasterCard that you can instantly set up and use.

567
00:37:40,488 --> 00:37:42,948
It uses on-chain Bitcoin to fund purchases directly.

568
00:37:43,328 --> 00:37:46,008
Seems like a good product and a trusted company since 2013.

569
00:37:46,648 --> 00:37:50,168
Of course, it is custodial, but unavoidable, I believe.

570
00:37:50,828 --> 00:37:53,648
I've been keen for other Aussies to boost in and let me know what they use.

571
00:37:53,768 --> 00:37:55,408
AlbiHub is still my main savings account.

572
00:37:55,588 --> 00:37:57,428
Skip the coffee and stack the sats.

573
00:37:57,708 --> 00:37:58,148
Yes.

574
00:37:58,788 --> 00:37:59,608
This is the way.

575
00:38:00,728 --> 00:38:01,568
Coinjar, huh?

576
00:38:01,568 --> 00:38:09,968
If anybody else has some experience on that, I would really like the feedback because, you know, I do not have a way to test that stuff.

577
00:38:10,148 --> 00:38:13,128
What a dream it would be to be able to travel around the world and try this stuff out and report on it.

578
00:38:13,248 --> 00:38:14,188
That would be so great.

579
00:38:14,348 --> 00:38:14,848
Oh, I'm in.

580
00:38:15,408 --> 00:38:15,708
All right.

581
00:38:15,768 --> 00:38:16,568
Thank you, RetroGear.

582
00:38:16,908 --> 00:38:19,648
And do report back in how CoinJar works out for you.

583
00:38:19,948 --> 00:38:21,088
I appreciate that feedback, too.

584
00:38:21,308 --> 00:38:22,148
Nice to hear from an Aussie.

585
00:38:22,848 --> 00:38:24,968
Bobby Pins here with 5,000 sats.

586
00:38:25,348 --> 00:38:27,368
Ten gold blooms out of a possible ten gold blooms.

587
00:38:27,828 --> 00:38:29,088
Quantitative tightening is over.

588
00:38:29,228 --> 00:38:30,708
Bring on the money printer.

589
00:38:31,168 --> 00:38:32,588
You know, I think you're probably right.

590
00:38:33,188 --> 00:38:35,368
I don't know how soon, but I think you're probably right.

591
00:38:35,828 --> 00:38:39,308
The lever you have pulled breaks is not in service.

592
00:38:39,448 --> 00:38:40,388
I don't think anything stops that.

593
00:38:41,168 --> 00:38:42,848
Thank you, everybody, who boosted in.

594
00:38:42,928 --> 00:38:45,028
All of you two below the 2,000 cutoff.

595
00:38:45,108 --> 00:38:46,528
I keep those and save those as well.

596
00:38:46,628 --> 00:38:48,708
And, of course, a huge thank you to everybody who streams sats.

597
00:38:49,108 --> 00:38:50,728
41 of you just streamed as you listened.

598
00:38:50,728 --> 00:38:54,948
And collectively, you stacked 89,931 sats for the show.

599
00:38:55,148 --> 00:38:58,368
You really did the bulk of the lift for this episode.

600
00:38:58,508 --> 00:38:59,288
So thank you very much.

601
00:38:59,288 --> 00:39:05,288
When you combine that with our boosters, we stacked a humble 151,444 SATs.

602
00:39:05,348 --> 00:39:07,268
And, you know, this isn't your fault.

603
00:39:12,428 --> 00:39:19,168
I will say, 151,000 is a little disappointing.

604
00:39:19,248 --> 00:39:20,508
And again, this isn't your fault.

605
00:39:21,328 --> 00:39:22,988
But you had no way of knowing this.

606
00:39:23,408 --> 00:39:24,748
I lost last week's episode.

607
00:39:24,748 --> 00:39:27,948
and I was exhausted when I finished it

608
00:39:27,948 --> 00:39:29,348
because I put a lot into it.

609
00:39:29,668 --> 00:39:32,128
And I lost it and I went through the process

610
00:39:32,128 --> 00:39:35,448
of deciding if I was going to skip the episode for the week

611
00:39:35,448 --> 00:39:37,068
or if I was going to try to recover the data.

612
00:39:37,668 --> 00:39:39,268
And I started looking into the process

613
00:39:39,268 --> 00:39:40,828
of recovering the data on the hard drive

614
00:39:40,828 --> 00:39:42,028
because it was an application issue.

615
00:39:42,488 --> 00:39:44,288
But it looked like it was going to be a two-hour process

616
00:39:44,288 --> 00:39:45,188
to recover the data.

617
00:39:45,728 --> 00:39:47,768
So I sat down, turned the mic back on,

618
00:39:48,048 --> 00:39:50,208
and I did last week's episode a second time.

619
00:39:51,488 --> 00:39:54,708
So I spent like four hours recording last week's episode

620
00:39:54,708 --> 00:39:59,388
So I was hoping it would be kind of a banger in the boost department, even though that has no bearing on you.

621
00:39:59,408 --> 00:40:02,248
And I didn't even bring it up in the episode because it wasn't your problem.

622
00:40:02,968 --> 00:40:10,668
But, you know, this I think this kind of exposes one of the things that's good and bad about the show is this show is my proof of work.

623
00:40:10,988 --> 00:40:16,488
And I have to be more transparent about that kind of stuff, because when you boost, that's essentially my block rewards.

624
00:40:16,488 --> 00:40:20,288
and I'm on public record talking and explaining

625
00:40:20,288 --> 00:40:25,288
and putting Bitcoin into context for 14 years now.

626
00:40:25,768 --> 00:40:28,488
I don't think many people have a 14-year track record

627
00:40:28,488 --> 00:40:30,348
of calling balls and strikes in Bitcoin.

628
00:40:30,828 --> 00:40:32,528
And just as a little proof of work for you,

629
00:40:32,528 --> 00:40:36,388
this is myself and my co-host Alan 14 years ago

630
00:40:36,388 --> 00:40:38,688
in our TechSnap podcast.

631
00:40:38,908 --> 00:40:41,028
So it is a long time ago, so I apologize about the quality.

632
00:40:41,088 --> 00:40:41,688
I've learned a lot.

633
00:40:42,188 --> 00:40:43,788
I also didn't get the analysis 100% right,

634
00:40:43,908 --> 00:40:45,268
but it was 14 years ago.

635
00:40:45,268 --> 00:40:55,248
And I was explaining why everyone should probably just calm down because Bitcoin was crashing after pumping to $30 and everyone was declaring the end of Bitcoin.

636
00:40:55,448 --> 00:41:02,288
I go once again back in time just as a small demonstration of my proof of work to 14 years ago.

637
00:41:05,088 --> 00:41:07,528
You mine gold and you mine Bitcoin.

638
00:41:07,648 --> 00:41:08,708
There's a lot of parallels there.

639
00:41:08,708 --> 00:41:21,168
But the other thing to consider is even if Bitcoin were to shoot way, way up and get to say $100 to a single coin and then just come crashing down, it's a peer-to-peer open source system.

640
00:41:21,268 --> 00:41:37,812
It not like there a PayPal company that going to fail because of it So there always be a small network of people probably trading in these Bitcoins I think at this point Bitcoin will never ever go away because there is a need for an anonymous direct peer currency online There are still some people to

641
00:41:37,812 --> 00:41:44,252
use it. It's value in relation to other things may change, but the system is not just going to go

642
00:41:44,252 --> 00:41:48,192
away. It can't really. There's always somebody that's going to be using it somewhere. Yeah,

643
00:41:48,492 --> 00:41:51,892
yeah, exactly. That's my point. Even if it's only two people left in the entire network,

644
00:41:51,892 --> 00:41:52,612
it's still there.

645
00:41:53,212 --> 00:41:53,572
There's probably,

646
00:41:53,752 --> 00:41:54,412
and I don't think

647
00:41:54,412 --> 00:41:55,292
it's ever going to be that little.

648
00:41:55,392 --> 00:41:55,952
I think there's always

649
00:41:55,952 --> 00:41:56,412
at this point

650
00:41:56,412 --> 00:41:57,392
going to be inherent value

651
00:41:57,392 --> 00:41:57,912
in these coins.

652
00:41:58,172 --> 00:41:59,292
I don't think it'll be $30.

653
00:42:04,852 --> 00:42:05,792
Now, back then,

654
00:42:05,812 --> 00:42:06,772
everybody thought it was dead.

655
00:42:07,052 --> 00:42:08,092
And the thing that's,

656
00:42:08,112 --> 00:42:08,392
you know,

657
00:42:08,672 --> 00:42:09,552
I think unique

658
00:42:09,552 --> 00:42:10,132
about being able

659
00:42:10,132 --> 00:42:11,432
to directly support the show

660
00:42:11,432 --> 00:42:12,052
with a boost,

661
00:42:12,512 --> 00:42:13,632
and I don't sell sponsorships

662
00:42:13,632 --> 00:42:14,172
on this show,

663
00:42:14,652 --> 00:42:16,292
is you're also investing

664
00:42:16,292 --> 00:42:16,692
in something

665
00:42:16,692 --> 00:42:17,992
that becomes a community resource.

666
00:42:18,232 --> 00:42:19,472
And I say that humbly.

667
00:42:19,572 --> 00:42:20,552
I'm doing this for you.

668
00:42:20,552 --> 00:42:21,272
I put all my energy

669
00:42:21,272 --> 00:42:21,732
into this

670
00:42:21,732 --> 00:42:29,172
because I think my small dent in the universe can be helping people, especially the regular folks,

671
00:42:29,312 --> 00:42:32,772
wrap their head around why they need to own a little bit of a hard asset.

672
00:42:33,312 --> 00:42:37,272
That maybe could be my greatest contribution to this space, right?

673
00:42:37,552 --> 00:42:43,472
And that's my goal, is to try to get you the best information possible so you can make the best decisions possible.

674
00:42:43,872 --> 00:42:47,412
And as we get to the holiday season, we get into the winter season,

675
00:42:47,412 --> 00:42:50,072
and I have new chores around a farm that I've never done before.

676
00:42:50,072 --> 00:42:51,552
They start taking up more of my time.

677
00:42:51,732 --> 00:42:53,632
My time and energy do get more scarce.

678
00:42:54,052 --> 00:43:02,192
So as this week in Bitcoin rounds the year out, please do consider how it's been valuable to you and in which ways it's been valuable to you and what that might be worth.

679
00:43:02,412 --> 00:43:08,772
And then send a boost with a note or become a member on Fountain or sign up for Jupiter.party for all the shows.

680
00:43:08,772 --> 00:43:23,792
Well, a big report on Operation Chokepoint 2.0 is out.

681
00:43:23,792 --> 00:43:29,692
We've gone from does this even exist to here's a detailed analysis of how it was executed.

682
00:43:29,872 --> 00:43:35,872
This comes from the House Committee on Financial Services and the Oversight Chair released this final staff report

683
00:43:35,872 --> 00:43:40,112
on how the Biden administration comprehensively debanked digital assets.

684
00:43:40,392 --> 00:43:41,052
They write, quote,

685
00:43:41,492 --> 00:43:46,952
This report documents how Obama-era practices were revived and expanded under President Biden.

686
00:43:47,552 --> 00:43:51,792
Through pause letters, informal pressure campaigns, and regulation by enforcement,

687
00:43:52,292 --> 00:43:54,352
the U.S. forced companies offshore.

688
00:43:54,772 --> 00:43:59,712
Here's a bit of info on this and one of the Congress critters behind it.

689
00:44:00,972 --> 00:44:01,892
Welcome back.

690
00:44:01,892 --> 00:44:07,232
the House Financial Services Committee issuing a 53-page final staff report on how the Biden

691
00:44:07,232 --> 00:44:13,232
administration debanked digital assets. It details how Biden-era regulators used vague rules,

692
00:44:13,392 --> 00:44:18,972
excessive discretion, informal guidance, and aggressive enforcement all to pressure banks

693
00:44:18,972 --> 00:44:24,212
into distancing themselves from digital asset clients. This resulted in at least 30 entities

694
00:44:24,212 --> 00:44:28,772
or individuals losing access to financial services. Joining me now is Arkansas Congressman

695
00:44:28,772 --> 00:44:32,352
French Hill. He is the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee. Mr. Chairman,

696
00:44:32,412 --> 00:44:35,952
great to see you this morning. Thanks very much for being here. I want to kick it off with your

697
00:44:35,952 --> 00:44:40,452
report. What can you tell us? Well, Maria, happy holidays. Great to be with you. Hope you had a

698
00:44:40,452 --> 00:44:46,852
great Thanksgiving. This report identifies all the ways led by Gary Gensler, who was chairman of the

699
00:44:46,852 --> 00:44:53,032
SEC, the bank supervisors led by Michael Barr, then vice chairman of the Fed and others, to

700
00:44:53,032 --> 00:44:58,892
systematically debank legal businesses in the United States engaged in the digital asset

701
00:44:58,892 --> 00:45:05,532
innovative space. And this has been was terrible for American competitiveness. And it led me during

702
00:45:05,532 --> 00:45:11,212
the course of the Biden administration to offer my FID 21 bill, which is now the Clarity Act,

703
00:45:11,212 --> 00:45:17,012
which gives the rules of the road, clear market structure road rules so that people know how to

704
00:45:17,012 --> 00:45:21,572
innovate. They can count on the federal government for not debanking them and actually encouraging

705
00:45:21,572 --> 00:45:26,712
the use of innovation blockchain technology inside financial services.

706
00:45:26,712 --> 00:45:32,512
But why would the administration, the Biden administration, want to de-emphasize this?

707
00:45:33,812 --> 00:45:38,012
Well, I think they took the same approach that the Obama administration is,

708
00:45:38,092 --> 00:45:41,412
that when they, in their privileged point of view,

709
00:45:41,692 --> 00:45:45,292
believes that somehow that this innovation is a bad thing,

710
00:45:45,692 --> 00:45:49,252
they wanted to see it blocked from access to the financial system.

711
00:45:49,452 --> 00:45:51,512
We call it Chokepoint 2.0.

712
00:45:51,572 --> 00:46:11,852
Well, Choke Point 1.0, led by the FDIC, principally during the Obama administration, encouraged banks through leverage, intimidation, guidance, verbal communication, email listing, to ban them from banking businesses that the Obama administration didn't favor, like gun dealers, for example.

713
00:46:11,872 --> 00:46:12,292
I see.

714
00:46:12,292 --> 00:46:17,132
And porn, and porn, which was controversial at the time.

715
00:46:17,132 --> 00:46:37,992
So there you go. I'll link to the full report in the show notes. And interestingly enough, you know, folks are still getting debanked. Jack Mahler's was just kicked out of Chase. So some of that continues on. Don't know if it's coordinated or not. Could be a lot of reasons. Jack also did call JP or Jamie Dimon Jeffrey Epstein's banker. There's that as well.

716
00:46:37,992 --> 00:46:44,632
All right. So my Scott Bacon continues. I just love following this drama. I don't know if it's

717
00:46:44,632 --> 00:46:49,292
going to go anywhere, but it will have massive ramifications if it does. You might remember I've

718
00:46:49,292 --> 00:46:54,152
been tracking the probability of Treasury Secretary Scott Besson getting fired by President Trump.

719
00:46:54,592 --> 00:46:59,332
I played a clip last week of Trump not really jokingly suggesting that he might fire Scott

720
00:46:59,332 --> 00:47:06,032
if the rates don't come down anytime soon. Well, your buddy was asked about those rather awkward

721
00:47:06,032 --> 00:47:12,652
comments. And he had this to say. Mr. Secretary, last week, the president, I'm not sure if he was

722
00:47:12,652 --> 00:47:16,632
joking or how serious he was about it. He said he loves everything you're doing. But if you don't

723
00:47:16,632 --> 00:47:21,272
get the Fed to lower interest rates soon, he might fire your butt. Well, let's see, Becky,

724
00:47:21,272 --> 00:47:29,672
if you were in the if you were in the room, he was joking. And, you know, again, I think that

725
00:47:29,672 --> 00:47:35,392
we've gotten to this point where monetary policy has gotten very complicated. And it's more than

726
00:47:35,392 --> 00:47:40,532
just cutting rates. It is more than just cutting rates. And I think this is what he's selling the

727
00:47:40,532 --> 00:47:46,672
president. Don't worry, Mr. President, even if that gosh darn awful Jerome Powell, that dummy,

728
00:47:46,792 --> 00:47:51,872
even if he won't lower rates, I have a plan to get the rates down without the help of the Fed.

729
00:47:51,932 --> 00:47:56,912
And he lays it out here. We are under your direction. We're reprivatizing the economy.

730
00:47:56,912 --> 00:48:01,592
We're bringing down government spending. We're bringing down excess employment in the government

731
00:48:01,592 --> 00:48:07,092
sector. On the other side, we're going to re-leverage the banking system. We're going to have all the

732
00:48:07,092 --> 00:48:12,572
new manufacturing jobs. So everyone who's laid off from the government will have an opportunity to go

733
00:48:12,572 --> 00:48:18,792
into the private sector. And that is going to lead to disinflation. We're going to, inflation

734
00:48:18,792 --> 00:48:24,372
is under control. We're going to get the affordability crisis fixed. So let's stop here

735
00:48:24,372 --> 00:48:31,212
for a second, because there was one thing that he slips in there that is going to be huge. And we

736
00:48:31,212 --> 00:48:44,552
don't really talk about it much. We're going to re-leverage the banking system. In other words,

737
00:48:44,612 --> 00:48:49,952
we're going to remove their collateral limits and let them buy government debt like crazy.

738
00:48:50,812 --> 00:48:54,952
That, I just don't even understand. If you have any thoughts on the implications of that,

739
00:48:54,952 --> 00:48:59,052
please boost in because to me, I just don't even know how to price that into my brain.

740
00:48:59,052 --> 00:49:01,992
Bringing down excess employment in the government sector.

741
00:49:02,232 --> 00:49:05,532
On the other side, we're going to re-leverage the banking system.

742
00:49:05,912 --> 00:49:08,332
We're going to have all the new manufacturing jobs.

743
00:49:08,332 --> 00:49:13,832
So everyone who's laid off from the government will have an opportunity to go into the private sector.

744
00:49:14,052 --> 00:49:21,912
Everyone who's laid off from the government will have an opportunity to get a manufacturing job is one of the things he's modeling.

745
00:49:22,732 --> 00:49:28,992
Okay, yeah, they're going to go from sitting at a desk all day at a government job or working from home to working in a factory?

746
00:49:29,052 --> 00:49:31,812
I think they're more likely to just take benefits.

747
00:49:32,072 --> 00:49:37,592
So everyone who's laid off from the government will have an opportunity to go into the private sector.

748
00:49:38,152 --> 00:49:40,952
And that is going to lead to disinflation.

749
00:49:41,872 --> 00:49:43,712
Inflation is under control.

750
00:49:43,832 --> 00:49:46,172
We're going to get the affordability crisis fixed.

751
00:49:46,852 --> 00:49:51,332
So lower energy, deregulation, more private sector jobs.

752
00:49:51,812 --> 00:49:56,452
Lower regulation, lower energy prices, more private sector jobs would help with inflation.

753
00:49:56,452 --> 00:50:06,352
However, uncapping the collateral requirements on the banks and letting them buy unlimited government debt, that seems like it would be very inflationary.

754
00:50:06,692 --> 00:50:08,932
I just don't understand this plan.

755
00:50:09,372 --> 00:50:20,732
And if this is his plan to save his job, I mean, some of it's going to work, but government workers aren't going to go get jobs at manufacturing plants and lower, you know, the unemployment and increase productivity.

756
00:50:20,732 --> 00:50:26,072
It's just maybe some of them, a percentage of them will, maybe a small percentage of them will.

757
00:50:26,072 --> 00:50:29,632
Let's be generous, actually. Let's say 20 percent, 30 percent. Let's be really generous.

758
00:50:30,352 --> 00:50:33,412
It's not going to move the needle. It's not going to move the needle.

759
00:50:33,612 --> 00:50:37,412
Not like removing collateral requirements on the banks will.

760
00:50:37,532 --> 00:50:39,852
We're going to get the affordability crisis fixed.

761
00:50:40,512 --> 00:50:49,692
So lower energy deregulation, more private sector jobs that will naturally get interest rates down, interest rates down.

762
00:50:50,292 --> 00:50:53,832
Mortgage rates are down almost every week since January 20th.

763
00:50:53,832 --> 00:50:59,252
The energy costs are down about 15 percent. Crude oil is down about 15 percent.

764
00:50:59,512 --> 00:51:04,752
Now, the point Scott's trying to make is that there are other ways to influence the market rates.

765
00:51:05,572 --> 00:51:09,452
The Fed sets a base rate, but mortgages aren't the base rate. They're higher than that.

766
00:51:10,172 --> 00:51:13,932
And Scott's point is, is we have room to play to get that closer to the base rate.

767
00:51:14,832 --> 00:51:20,532
OK, yes, technically true, but it's going to require them essentially.

768
00:51:20,532 --> 00:51:25,612
the way they're going to do that is by jumping on every pump they possibly can to just try to

769
00:51:25,612 --> 00:51:32,812
really stoke the economy. It's January 20th. The energy costs are down about 15 percent. Crude

770
00:51:32,812 --> 00:51:38,732
oil is down about 15 percent. And as we keep that going, interest rates are going to keep declining.

771
00:51:39,292 --> 00:51:44,512
It'll be good for mortgages. It'll be good for credit card debt. It'll be great for auto loans.

772
00:51:45,512 --> 00:51:48,772
And please don't fire me is the implication there.

773
00:51:48,772 --> 00:51:56,192
we'll see some of that's going to be pretty hard to pull off but i continue to track the

774
00:51:56,192 --> 00:52:02,152
scott getting fired probability index all right now i want to go on to something that's been on

775
00:52:02,152 --> 00:52:06,372
my mind for a few weeks and i haven't been quite sure how to talk to you about it until today

776
00:52:06,372 --> 00:52:12,532
i think we are seeing levels of degenerate gambling like we've never seen before

777
00:52:12,532 --> 00:52:15,892
over some word somebody might say in a press event

778
00:52:15,892 --> 00:52:18,992
or silly events or just anything.

779
00:52:19,092 --> 00:52:20,112
They'll gamble on anything.

780
00:52:20,292 --> 00:52:22,852
I mean, I guess like a presidential election

781
00:52:22,852 --> 00:52:25,512
is such a big thing that kind of almost doesn't seem too bad,

782
00:52:25,592 --> 00:52:28,392
but it's getting just bonkers what people will vote on now.

783
00:52:28,552 --> 00:52:32,132
And it really feels to me like another form of shitcoinery.

784
00:52:32,672 --> 00:52:35,072
And it's the most perhaps flashy version.

785
00:52:35,492 --> 00:52:37,952
And it may have the most money behind it ever.

786
00:52:38,192 --> 00:52:41,032
And it may be the most built for retail

787
00:52:41,032 --> 00:52:44,572
and really to screw retail that we've ever seen.

788
00:52:45,092 --> 00:52:47,472
And today, it just got a lot easier.

789
00:52:47,732 --> 00:52:51,152
Polymarket is officially coming to the U.S. market,

790
00:52:51,332 --> 00:52:56,332
and this is their trailer for their new app that's coming to a smartphone near you.

791
00:52:57,072 --> 00:52:58,972
Polymarket, raided by the FBI.

792
00:52:58,972 --> 00:53:03,072
Many men wish death upon me.

793
00:53:03,372 --> 00:53:06,072
Operating. We talk about Polymarket as if everyone can use it,

794
00:53:06,132 --> 00:53:07,952
but the truth is most folks couldn't.

795
00:53:07,952 --> 00:53:11,632
So it's cut with news clips of people declaring it's going to be dead.

796
00:53:11,632 --> 00:53:18,992
And then they interstitial it with CG generated app visuals of like notifications about trades.

797
00:53:21,192 --> 00:53:25,172
You have to get another country to sort of use the app.

798
00:53:25,352 --> 00:53:27,092
Prevent U.S.-based users.

799
00:53:28,612 --> 00:53:30,132
More push notifications.

800
00:53:30,592 --> 00:53:32,612
Odds of app launching in U.S. go up.

801
00:53:32,712 --> 00:53:35,932
And then you'll notice, too, they're using music of people said I was going to die.

802
00:53:36,112 --> 00:53:37,432
People said they want to come after me.

803
00:53:37,952 --> 00:53:40,312
What I'm destined to be

804
00:53:40,312 --> 00:53:43,472
Successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential election

805
00:53:43,472 --> 00:53:45,612
What does this actually look like in success?

806
00:53:45,612 --> 00:53:49,612
Trying to take my life away

807
00:53:49,612 --> 00:53:56,932
Mini-man, who's deaf upon me?

808
00:53:57,252 --> 00:54:00,592
Polymarket is now invite only in the U.S.

809
00:54:00,672 --> 00:54:02,192
Early access opens now

810
00:54:02,192 --> 00:54:04,652
Look at my dog and I can't see

811
00:54:04,652 --> 00:54:07,592
Looks like it's only for the iPhone at the moment

812
00:54:07,952 --> 00:54:19,452
I this is this is to me an unsettling moment because I think this will siphon money away from where people should be putting it, which is Bitcoin.

813
00:54:20,672 --> 00:54:37,892
And as the as the fiscal situation gets worse, as economically illiterate people look for solutions, instead of just adjusting their time preference and saving in a hard asset, they're going to flood into these betting markets and they're going to try to make a quick buck, pay off some debt, pay off the credit card, whatever it might be.

814
00:54:37,952 --> 00:54:43,792
And it's going to take attention away from perhaps the largest innovation in finance.

815
00:54:44,252 --> 00:54:46,992
It's the big markets that draw big bettors.

816
00:54:47,312 --> 00:54:49,612
And this is one of Polymarket's biggest.

817
00:54:50,052 --> 00:54:53,152
He's wagered more than $400 million so far.

818
00:54:53,692 --> 00:54:55,752
Online, he goes by the name Domer.

819
00:54:56,312 --> 00:54:57,792
I don't think of myself as a gambler.

820
00:54:57,972 --> 00:55:02,132
I mean, I'm taking very, very well-researched views on things.

821
00:55:02,292 --> 00:55:04,232
I feel like it's much more akin to investing.

822
00:55:05,072 --> 00:55:07,352
Betting is Domer's full-time job.

823
00:55:07,352 --> 00:55:11,112
He said he made nearly $3 million last year on Polymarket.

824
00:55:11,812 --> 00:55:14,972
He used to be a professional poker player, but gave it up.

825
00:55:15,492 --> 00:55:16,912
Prediction markets, he said.

826
00:55:16,976 --> 00:55:18,096
are more exciting.

827
00:55:18,816 --> 00:55:20,216
Every day, kind of going into battle.

828
00:55:20,376 --> 00:55:22,516
You wake up, I don't know if you drink coffee,

829
00:55:22,856 --> 00:55:23,836
and you're in battle.

830
00:55:24,156 --> 00:55:24,736
You are wrong.

831
00:55:24,836 --> 00:55:26,916
I look at my phone within five seconds of waking up.

832
00:55:26,996 --> 00:55:27,656
What have I missed?

833
00:55:27,776 --> 00:55:28,756
My phone is my coffee.

834
00:55:28,856 --> 00:55:29,736
What has happened overnight?

835
00:55:30,056 --> 00:55:30,276
Yeah.

836
00:55:30,716 --> 00:55:31,756
Because the news doesn't sleep.

837
00:55:32,036 --> 00:55:33,616
Did you bet on the papal conclave?

838
00:55:34,056 --> 00:55:35,136
Yes, for sure.

839
00:55:35,476 --> 00:55:37,156
How, I mean, a papal conclave

840
00:55:37,156 --> 00:55:40,616
is a hermetically sealed environment.

841
00:55:41,136 --> 00:55:42,536
Information does not get out.

842
00:55:42,836 --> 00:55:43,076
Right.

843
00:55:43,216 --> 00:55:44,696
Nobody was putting money down

844
00:55:44,696 --> 00:55:46,436
that there'd be an American pope, but you were.

845
00:55:46,436 --> 00:55:51,316
Yeah, and his odds were 250 to 1. So he was a super, super, super long shot.

846
00:55:52,196 --> 00:55:57,836
He won $100,000 on the Pope and even more picking J.D. Vance to be Donald Trump's running mate.

847
00:55:58,216 --> 00:56:05,356
He started betting on him five months before he was selected, when Polymarket was only giving Vance a 2% chance.

848
00:56:05,816 --> 00:56:09,796
What did you see that made you think, oh, he might pick J.D. Vance?

849
00:56:09,796 --> 00:56:12,976
So that goes back to 2016 when he picked Mike Pence.

850
00:56:13,416 --> 00:56:19,076
And buried in one of the articles for why he picked Mike Pence is that Mike Pence had a one-syllable name.

851
00:56:19,456 --> 00:56:20,816
And Trump has a one-syllable name.

852
00:56:20,916 --> 00:56:22,336
And Trump is very into marketing.

853
00:56:22,876 --> 00:56:25,436
And so I was looking at the names and I was like, who's one-syllable?

854
00:56:25,576 --> 00:56:29,436
And not only is Vance one-syllable, he's only two letters off of Pence.

855
00:56:29,796 --> 00:56:34,456
So you bet $4,000 and you ended up winning $250,000?

856
00:56:34,716 --> 00:56:35,016
Yes.

857
00:56:35,476 --> 00:56:35,656
Yeah.

858
00:56:35,936 --> 00:56:37,196
It's a smart play.

859
00:56:37,296 --> 00:56:38,016
It is a good bet.

860
00:56:38,136 --> 00:56:38,296
Yeah.

861
00:56:38,296 --> 00:56:43,896
Okay, I'm not saying don't have a little fun, but I'm saying you have to go in with the understanding of what this is.

862
00:56:44,016 --> 00:56:47,976
These are casinos that are going to try to extract from you.

863
00:56:48,176 --> 00:56:49,976
And this is just the beginning.

864
00:56:50,736 --> 00:56:54,956
The real gambling will start when we get real-world assets on some commercial blockchain.

865
00:56:55,716 --> 00:56:59,076
And then people are going to get so distracted by all of this.

866
00:56:59,556 --> 00:57:08,216
It's kind of why it was nice recently when we heard Elon Musk kind of remind us of an idea that's been around since Henry Ford earlier this week.

867
00:57:08,296 --> 00:57:14,956
There are still some fundamental currencies, if you will, that are physics-based.

868
00:57:15,496 --> 00:57:19,336
So energy is the true currency.

869
00:57:19,656 --> 00:57:21,896
This is why I said Bitcoin is based on energy.

870
00:57:22,156 --> 00:57:24,016
You can't legislate energy.

871
00:57:24,256 --> 00:57:28,036
You can't just pass a law and suddenly have a lot of energy.

872
00:57:29,116 --> 00:57:36,496
It's very difficult to generate energy, especially to harness energy in a useful way to do useful work.

873
00:57:36,496 --> 00:57:50,016
So I think that probably we won't have money and probably we'll just have energy, power generation as the de facto currency.

874
00:57:51,476 --> 00:57:58,676
I think he misses the bit where Bitcoin can be the abstracted bit that represents that precious commodity that is energy.

875
00:57:58,676 --> 00:58:06,936
But it reminded me of a question that the NVIDIA CEO got during a Q&A in D.C. about a year ago.

876
00:58:07,596 --> 00:58:09,876
So I invest in crypto startups.

877
00:58:10,356 --> 00:58:25,051
And our industry would kind of like to thank your industry for taking a little bit of the heat off of the negative PR of Bitcoin mining and and all that But that being said you know a lot of power producers energy producers

878
00:58:25,751 --> 00:58:30,631
the excess energy, they allocate that to Bitcoin mining because there's a very clear market there,

879
00:58:30,991 --> 00:58:35,371
kind of one-to-one financial market there. Do you see something like that possible in terms of like

880
00:58:35,371 --> 00:58:41,891
a smart grid or like having those companies be able to dedicate some of that excess energy to

881
00:58:41,891 --> 00:58:49,831
training models and like and providing that power to you just gave a a current example

882
00:58:49,831 --> 00:58:58,451
of excess energy right being used to convert in to store that energy essentially what bitcoin is

883
00:58:58,451 --> 00:59:06,291
doing is taking excess energy storing it into a new form it's called currency and you take that

884
00:59:06,291 --> 00:59:11,731
currency and you take it wherever you like and so you took energy from one place and now you've

885
00:59:11,731 --> 00:59:16,591
transported everywhere. Now he goes on to say, you could probably do that with an LLM too. You

886
00:59:16,591 --> 00:59:20,871
use somewhere energy is cheap and train the LLM and then move what it learns somewhere else. Maybe.

887
00:59:21,391 --> 00:59:29,651
But I think what struck me there is both Elon and Jensen seem to be thinking about Bitcoin in an

888
00:59:29,651 --> 00:59:41,711
energy context. And it's not a bad way to think about it because it does matter, right? At the

889
00:59:41,731 --> 00:59:51,551
All right, it's that time, the final clip of the week.

890
00:59:51,851 --> 00:59:56,331
And I'm always on the watch for Bitcoin moments in mainstream media.

891
00:59:57,031 --> 00:59:59,971
I just always love to see what they have to say.

892
01:00:00,071 --> 01:00:03,951
And one of my favorites I've never shared with you, it's from an episode of Silicon Valley.

893
01:00:04,331 --> 01:00:08,131
I'll put a link to this clip in the show notes so you can watch the video version if you like.

894
01:00:08,131 --> 01:00:24,891
But what I like about this scene is what's going on behind it, because you just know, listening to this, it was written by someone who loves Bitcoin and went through phases of intense evangelism and is now at a point where they are kind of poking fun at themselves.

895
01:00:24,891 --> 01:00:27,711
and they're doing it through the writing of this scene.

896
01:00:28,311 --> 01:00:33,891
And I love it because Guilfoyle starts with this earnest desire

897
01:00:33,891 --> 01:00:39,391
to walk his friend through a massive presentation of the history of money.

898
01:00:40,011 --> 01:00:41,851
And boy, do I feel that one.

899
01:00:42,851 --> 01:00:46,111
I have a PowerPoint that I've been wanting to show you for some time.

900
01:00:46,111 --> 01:00:59,871
In 350 BCE, Aristotle defined sound money as being durable, transferable, divisible, scarce, recognizable, and fungible.

901
01:01:00,691 --> 01:01:00,911
What?

902
01:01:01,331 --> 01:01:05,651
Can we skip ahead 2400 years? I mean, I know what cryptocurrency is.

903
01:01:06,331 --> 01:01:08,511
Richard, a lot of work went into this presentation.

904
01:01:09,271 --> 01:01:09,591
Okay.

905
01:01:10,071 --> 01:01:10,371
Fine.

906
01:01:11,671 --> 01:01:14,651
But you're missing out on a lot of wisdom here.

907
01:01:16,111 --> 01:01:25,665
Why don you tell me what you know about Bitcoin as a jumping off point Okay sure Well I pretty sure it was founded by a Japanese guy

908
01:01:25,905 --> 01:01:30,565
Or guys, or girls, going by the name Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008.

909
01:01:31,005 --> 01:01:32,305
True identity is still unknown.

910
01:01:32,445 --> 01:01:36,945
Okay, look, every day I read an article about how we're in a Bitcoin bubble.

911
01:01:37,265 --> 01:01:38,645
And who is writing those articles?

912
01:01:38,645 --> 01:01:50,065
I don't want to say the establishment, but is it possible that Warren Buffett called Bitcoin a pyramid scheme because he has 92 billion conventional dollars to protect?

913
01:01:50,405 --> 01:01:55,745
Let's say he's right. Let's say Bitcoin dies. So what? MySpace, Friendster, they both died.

914
01:01:56,305 --> 01:02:02,925
But they paved the way for other social media tripe like Facebook and Twitter to completely overrun the planet.

915
01:02:04,405 --> 01:02:08,045
Crypto is out there, and it's not going away.

916
01:02:08,045 --> 01:02:10,725
It just feels sketchy.

917
01:02:10,725 --> 01:02:15,325
In the same way that a new internet is sketchy, Richard?

918
01:02:15,325 --> 01:02:16,325
What?

919
01:02:16,325 --> 01:02:23,325
What is crypto, if not decentralized, anonymous, secure, and an existential threat to the powers that be?

920
01:02:23,325 --> 01:02:26,125
I would think that you'd be all in on something like that.

921
01:02:26,125 --> 01:02:43,805
let's check in on the state of the network i'm wrapping up at block height 926 306

922
01:02:43,805 --> 01:02:52,305
the bitcoin price to usd is 93 000 and 40 dollars right now that puts our sats per dollar at 1075

923
01:02:52,305 --> 01:03:02,105
We are down right now 26.3% from our all-time high, $126,180, a long 58 days ago on October 6th.

924
01:03:02,405 --> 01:03:04,765
May it live in infamy, October 6th, 2025.

925
01:03:05,705 --> 01:03:13,265
Our next difficulty change will be a downward adjustment right now of 1.2%, but that's not till December 10th.

926
01:03:13,565 --> 01:03:15,565
So we may see that change.

927
01:03:15,965 --> 01:03:18,765
We're still sitting well above a Zeta hash right now.

928
01:03:18,765 --> 01:03:23,105
There are 24,675 nodes on the network.

929
01:03:23,225 --> 01:03:24,445
That's jumped up a little bit.

930
01:03:25,005 --> 01:03:25,865
Some of it is Notts.

931
01:03:25,925 --> 01:03:29,245
In fact, Core and Notts are bouncing around on the charts as I'm live.

932
01:03:29,685 --> 01:03:34,645
Core 30, though, sitting at the top with 13.4% share for one implementation.

933
01:03:35,605 --> 01:03:40,185
Core 28 coming at two, but you could really give that to Notts, too, because they have several versions.

934
01:03:41,645 --> 01:03:43,185
So it's kind of a toss-up right now.

935
01:03:43,805 --> 01:03:44,965
But we are looking okay.

936
01:03:45,045 --> 01:03:47,305
In the last 24 hours, we are up 1.1%.

937
01:03:47,305 --> 01:03:50,145
over the last seven days, we're up 3.4%.

938
01:03:50,145 --> 01:03:53,705
Of course, our 30-day, we're still down just over 13%.

939
01:03:53,705 --> 01:03:56,265
But don't look at the price, because the metrics of the network,

940
01:03:56,405 --> 01:03:58,245
they continue to be quite strong.

941
01:04:13,185 --> 01:04:27,479
Well if you made it this far check out the links in the show notes this week in Bitcoin past episodes there as well as all the other great Jupiter Broadcasting show My goal here is to create you something that doesn get distracted by the emotions around what happening but focuses on the signal

942
01:04:28,439 --> 01:04:29,899
Let me know how I did with the boost,

943
01:04:29,959 --> 01:04:31,259
or if I missed something,

944
01:04:31,719 --> 01:04:33,139
or if you'd like to see something covered

945
01:04:33,139 --> 01:04:35,359
either in a future episode or in a special,

946
01:04:35,459 --> 01:04:36,599
you can boost in with that too.

947
01:04:37,079 --> 01:04:39,459
Now I'm going to leave you with a value for value track.

948
01:04:39,459 --> 01:04:41,379
So if you boost in while this music plays,

949
01:04:41,579 --> 01:04:44,139
95% of your sats go directly to the artist.

950
01:04:44,539 --> 01:04:45,819
And this week it's Scoot.

951
01:04:45,819 --> 01:04:46,739
by Catherine.

952
01:05:15,819 --> 01:05:24,979
Let me get this right

953
01:05:24,979 --> 01:05:27,879
You're on to me

954
01:05:27,879 --> 01:05:31,539
You've made up a page

955
01:05:31,539 --> 01:05:34,579
So casually

956
01:05:34,579 --> 01:05:38,219
If we wanted this

957
01:05:38,219 --> 01:05:42,739
To be your scene

958
01:05:42,739 --> 01:05:44,379
Baby

959
01:05:44,379 --> 01:05:48,799
You were like the

960
01:05:48,799 --> 01:05:51,499
I gotta scoot now, baby

961
01:05:51,499 --> 01:05:53,379
I move now, honey

962
01:05:53,379 --> 01:05:55,759
I thought we agreed to

963
01:05:55,759 --> 01:05:59,079
Just be friends

964
01:05:59,079 --> 01:06:03,459
Your eyes tell me to undress

965
01:06:03,459 --> 01:06:06,859
I gotta scoot now, baby

966
01:06:06,859 --> 01:06:08,759
I move now, honey

967
01:06:08,759 --> 01:06:11,159
I thought we needed to

968
01:06:11,159 --> 01:06:19,159
It's our loose ends, but further after our grass

969
01:06:22,159 --> 01:06:29,159
If we force the fire so casually

970
01:06:29,159 --> 01:06:36,159
Will the flame be less damaging?

971
01:06:36,159 --> 01:06:43,659
Logic seems to be a remedy

972
01:06:43,659 --> 01:06:49,439
It's good crafting, so

973
01:06:49,439 --> 01:06:52,899
I got a school now, baby

974
01:06:52,899 --> 01:06:54,819
I'm now, honey

975
01:06:54,819 --> 01:07:00,499
I thought we agreed to just be friends

976
01:07:00,499 --> 01:07:04,899
I sell me two undress

977
01:07:04,899 --> 01:07:09,659
I got a school now, baby, I don't know

978
01:07:09,659 --> 01:07:15,919
Honey, I thought we needed to tie loose ends

979
01:07:15,919 --> 01:07:18,739
But for the right diagram