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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 82.

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My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupiterBroadcasting.com.

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I know some of you are feeling real tired right now, and I get it.

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Q4 was supposed to be a big pump.

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The coin market cap fear and greed index has been an extreme fear for the longest period ever. Usually it only lasts three days and has reached five days. And I think those are a bit silly, but I do understand there's some pain out there for the newbies, especially if you've bought in since the election. 95% of all Bitcoin in the last 155 days is underwater right now.

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And so if you are feeling a little bit of the crunch and you've been listening to the wrong news, well, you might need to go lay down.

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Mackenzie Cigalos joins me with a look at the crypto breakdown.

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Back.

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Hey, John.

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So Bitcoin is hitting six-month lows, selling off in concert with the NASDAQ, a reminder that crypto is still trading more like tech than a hedge.

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But there are also signs of deeper structural stress emerging.

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Spot ETF demand.

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One of Bitcoin's biggest supports is slipping, with funds posting a second straight week of net outflows.

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Thursday marked the second worst day for the spot Bitcoin ETF since launch as big allocators and treasuries pull back.

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Now, at the same time, liquidity is vanishing, leveraged longs are being wiped out, and funding rates have flipped negative, all driving volatility higher.

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OK, so let's stop here because I find this to be a really shallow, crappy analysis.

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I think they talk about Bitcoin like it's an isolated tech stock onto its own island.

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And only what happens to Bitcoin is completely separate from the rest of the market.

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It just they just miss the mark.

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And Bloomberg tried.

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They tried.

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They rolled out one of their go to analysts, Mike McGlone, who's been famous for saying Bitcoin is going to go to zero forever.

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Embrace yourself.

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Mike says your Bitcoin is going to 10,000.

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In 2018, I pointed out when Bitcoin was about 10,000, it was going to drop a zero.

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I was 70% right, 30% wrong because it went down to 3,000.

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I'm saying the same thing now.

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Can you be 70% right, 30% wrong?

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I think that just means you're wrong, but okay.

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All right.

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10,000, it was going to drop a zero.

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I was 70% right, 30% wrong because it went down to 3,000.

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I'm saying the same thing now.

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I think it can go back to 10,000.

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I mean, that includes everything going lower, unfortunately, means the stock market.

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It's just normal. The key difference is from back then, there was only a few thousand cryptocurrencies.

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Now there's multi-millions. And we've had that piling from ETFs, the Trump administration kicking in and accelerating it.

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And it's classic peak bull market stuff. Remember, seeing in 1999.

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So in the previous segment, Paul mentioned the VIX at 25.

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You look at that VIX 200-day movement average, it's a bull flag.

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Right now it's averaging about 19 and a half.

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And a key fact is 120 day realized volatility in S&P 500 is around 10%.

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All right, now stick with him here for a second.

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He's about to bring it back to Bitcoin.

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What he's saying is that we're poised for a volatility increase in the wider market.

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And the two things together are going to pull Bitcoin down.

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Market being S&P and, of course, Bitcoin.

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If we end the year there, not only is it half the VIX, but it'll be the lowest since 2017.

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So I'm speccing this Bitcoin plunge to trickle down to the stock market, volatility to pick up, maybe just get to its average around 16%.

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And the whole thing tilts lower into the year end.

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I don't know what stops it at this point.

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Wow.

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OK, interesting.

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All right.

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So that's his key bit right there.

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I don't know what stops it at this point.

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So he's missing something.

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Is there a technical support level in Bitcoin that we should keep our eye on?

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I mean, that $100,000 level kind of held there for a while.

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But we've obviously down here at $92,000 have blown past that.

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Well, that's now key resistance, $100,000.

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It was my key inflection point starting in 2020 when I was calling for it.

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Yeah, I was early and I was wrong for a little while.

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But the key support was right now is around $90,000.

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It stuck between $90,000 and $100,000.

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I think eventually it broke.

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I love these analysts that get to be wrong 90% of the time and right 10% of the time

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and still get to be accredited and still get to be considered their chief senior whatever.

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He's actually the Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist is actually what he is.

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So he's going to bring it all back.

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His big idea is that the volatility, the VIX as they call it, has on average,

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which indicates volatility in the market, on average has been pretty low.

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It's about to pop back, which would be a return more to normal.

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And when doing so, it's going to crash Bitcoin down to 10,000.

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He's going to wrap it up.

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It's down, it heads towards 50.

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On an annual chart, 50 is normal.

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The key thing is you get the sharpest rallies in bear markets.

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The 200-day moving average has rolled over.

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MicroStrategy's 200-day moving average rolled over in August.

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And so maybe we'll get a little bounce, maybe get to 100,000.

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But I think it's all about responsive sellers.

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And the key thing to point out is the Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index, as of yesterday,

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was down 14% on the year after rallying about a third.

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If the stock market just follows that, which I think it might, all the dominoes trickle

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lower.

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And a key indication for me for all this is gold grabbing alpha this year.

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And when gold's alpha, something's wrong.

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So Bitcoin's going to go down to $10,000.

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God, I hope he's right.

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Wouldn't that be amazing?

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Could you imagine?

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What would you do knowing what you know now?

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What would you do?

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I would try to do whatever it takes.

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I'd even consider putting it on a credit card.

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I really honestly would.

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I mean, I know that's crazy.

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You shouldn't do that.

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Don't do what I would do.

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But I mean, I would probably pull out any of the stops to acquire an entire Bitcoin at $10,000.

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Oh, my goodness.

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But I think he's missing a key bit of, well, reality.

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He's missing from his model a key piece of what's stopping all of this from sliding entirely.

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Although I do get it because it's not a guarantee.

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It's a very complicated thing.

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Even Cordano Chuck, long timer in the space, creator of the Cordano cryptocurrency,

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He misses the mark with his analysis.

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Everybody entered, myself included, 2025 thinking that the Trump administration was going to be this magic net positive for the ecosystem.

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Because literally, the U.S. government has become a bag holder.

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You know, it's like that's the biggest economy in the world.

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And it's gone from trying to kill crypto to embracing crypto.

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But sometimes by having the big guy hug you, they hug too hard and they love too much.

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And it kind of crushes your ribs.

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Kind of like lum from goonies.

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So what we're having to contend with is the U.S. government, in a very hand-fisted way, has been some cases a little unhelpful to the industry.

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So it created an irrational exuberance, and it interfered with our normal four-year cycle that we have.

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And we're trying to sort all that stuff out.

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OK, so Chuck is closer to the target than Mike over there at Boomer Blurg, but Chuck's not over the target quite it.

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He brings it back at the end there to the four-year cycle. And the implication is, if politics had stayed out of crypto or not hugged so hard, then we would naturally just be working through some sort of innate built-in four-year cycle, which I suppose in this case he's applying to all of crypto, which would really tie back to the halvening cycle for Bitcoin.

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And while I do think that's worth discussing, I think he's just missing the major aspect a little bit. And so we switch to somebody maybe a little more qualified.

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there's been a lot of debate about this four-year cycle and i want to bring in lynn alden here in

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just a moment because i like her analysis on this a lot but first my opinion i think selling right

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now because of a four-year cycle is a colossal mistake and a lot of the long-time holders that

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have been selling. It's a combination of profit-taking at $100,000, obviously, and a belief

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in this four-year cycle, which has played out pretty consistently. In fact, every major crypto

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rally did line up with a four-year cycle, 2013, 2017, 2020. It's just that also happens to line

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up with liquidity expansion. And every crash happens to line up with liquidity tightening.

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and you can see it in the data.

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The Institute for Supply Management,

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that's the ISM's Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index,

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that's the PMI, so we have the ISM's PMI, right?

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So this institute has an index called the PMI.

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So the ISM is the institute, the PMI is the index.

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And what you see on there is a very, very tight correlation

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with Bitcoin's price.

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As the business cycles boom, Bitcoin's price booms.

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And as the business cycle has chopped sideways

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for this last year, for 2025, so has Bitcoin.

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In fact, all three past Bitcoin cycle tops

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have aligned with this monthly index.

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It might not be a halvening that's driving the market.

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It might have always been liquidity all along,

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at least to a large factor.

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Lynn Alden was on what Bitcoin did recently,

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and I like her take.

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And also the fact is that this four-year cycle,

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real or not does create a narrative it does create a full a self-fulfilling if i could figure out the

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word a self-fulfilling prophecy there you go i got it out so in a way it's like the four-year cycle

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becomes real because we think it is because it's had this pretty small sample size of of this four

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year cycle behavior so it peaked in in quarter four 2021 it peaked in quarter four 2027 uh 2017

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there are a lot of people saying, well, it's probably going to peak here in quarter four of

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2025, and therefore they sell it preemptively and kind of create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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I think that the halving cycles no longer are particularly relevant. I don't think even last

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cycle they were particularly relevant. I think they happen to correlate with the liquidity cycle.

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I think they certainly were relevant the first, say, three halvings.

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I want a nuance here. And the reason why they would be relevant,

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more so in the past than they are today

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is the issuance difference is diminishing, right?

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So in the past, the halving,

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you were taking a big amount of supply off the market.

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But now we're getting to the point

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where the issuance is,

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combined with the average ambient demand for purchasing,

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it's not a huge difference every time anymore.

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It will create a greater scarcity.

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So it does have a net effect of reducing supply

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and increasing price.

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but I just don't know if it has the same massive ramifications it might have had the first or

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second or even third time it happened. Periods I think were pretty relevant. I think they've

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diminished to the point where it's no longer a factor I particularly concern myself with at all.

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It's more about those other factors. And so I think there's a bunch of disillusionment that's

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being kind of washed out. And you can have an asset that is a good asset that's sometimes held

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for the wrong reasons. And so I think the coins are kind of rotating away from people that held

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for the wrong reasons or the wrong expectations and back toward the hands of those that, you know,

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have, I think, you know, more conservative expectations while still, of course, being

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bullish, which is why they hold it in the first place. Yes. Ultimately, the money flow runs dry.

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So the pool of buyers thins out and then you end up with a market that has more sellers than buyers

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that drives the price down. And in Bitcoin, that can happen pretty quick because it's a 24-7

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globally traded asset, yada, yada, yada. So when the price drops, people who bet that the price

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would be going up and not down, well, they start to get screwed. You know, you have people that have

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leverage trades, options traders, margin loans, et cetera. They all start to get forced to sell,

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sometimes mechanically, not even by choice. That accelerates the price drop and then forces more

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selling, obviously, because different liquidation levels get reached. So in this ISM manufacturing

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PMI, which measures the U.S. industrial activity, it has remained below the neutral 50 mark for the

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last seven consecutive months. That's not normal. And that's a contraction, a lot like we're seeing

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in Bitcoin. Now, the reality is we're on the edge of a transition. And I think Bitcoin's figuring

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this out, too. In two weeks, quantitative tightening ends. Now, that doesn't mean we

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have quantitative easing, but it does mean a liquidity drain is getting removed from the

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market. We also have the TGA beginning to spend again. And so how long it takes money to get from

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the printer to spot Bitcoin is hard to say. But when it starts to be sniffed, the people are going

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to try to front run it and the price will reflect it before it even happens. So that acts ultimately

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as a new flow of buyers. That's the backstop. That to me seems to be the backstop. That's why

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I don't think it's going to get to $10,000. And if it did, people would absolutely buy like crazy.

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The issue is, is that Bitcoin is like a red light on the dashboard telling you we got a liquidity

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problem. It's just a dummy light, though, in some senses. It doesn't give you exact details. It just

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says, hey, we've got a problem. The common meme you hear is that Bitcoin's a smoke detector.

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And in fact, Preston Fish had Luke Groman on his podcast, just like the other day as I record.

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And in three minutes, Luke breaks down really all of the recent liquidity issues that have brought

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us to this current kind of grinding spot. Furthermore, we're now seeing early signs of

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stress in the overnight funding markets. There's a variety of views on that. Mine is that it is

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essentially we now 30 months into the U shifting issuance to the front end because there not enough demand at the back end To make clear what he saying much like a bad girl Yellen Scott Besant is issuing a bunch of short term debt because nobody I mean OK that exaggerating

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There really isn't a robust market for the U.S.'s long term debt.

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essentially the buyers don't want to buy long-term U.S. debt, which means they're not exactly too

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confident long-term in the U.S. fiscal situation, but they are willing to buy short-term debt.

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But that is a process that obviously gets expensive and requires a lot of shuffling of the money.

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That it is essentially, we're now 30 months into the U.S. shifting issuance to the front end

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because there's not enough demand at the back end.

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And as a result, Besant has a Red Queen or Axel Rose problem, if you will.

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I used to do a little, but the little wouldn't do it.

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So the little got more and more, or the Red Queen, I got to run faster and faster, stay in the same spot.

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There's more and more issuance coming, right?

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So 2013, we were rolling about $100 billion of T-bills a week per Secretary of the Treasury, Jack Lew.

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Now it's $550 billion per week being rolled per my friend Andy Constan.

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And so that requires having a greater level of money in the Treasury General Account or TGA, which Besant is doing, which is in turn putting overnight funding strains on overnight funding markets akin to a little bit like what we saw in 2019.

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So you're seeing tightening liquidity there and sort of spot applications of liquidity in terms of standing repo facility being borrowed against in a bigger way than we have seen ever before.

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it's back to basically nothing but two weeks ago on halloween it was 50 billion overnight so that's

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not a problem it's going to go away and they'll continue to put spot applications of liquidity

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you're seeing in japan okay before we get to the japan stuff i think the takeaway there is

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the treasury is going to act as a larger vacuum of liquidity than they have in the past and they

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have no choice. And perhaps, and I don't know, this is why I defer to Luke on this,

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but as the debt situation worsens and the interest payments worsen, that situation where the treasury

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is going to need more and more money worsens. And so consistently, the treasury is going to be

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sucking more and more liquidity out of the system. And it really is going to depend on how much other

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money is flowing in to offset that and how Bitcoin responds to that. And some of that might be getting

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worked out right now in the market of standing repo facility being borrowed against in a bigger

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way than we have seen ever before it's back to basically nothing but two weeks ago on halloween

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it was 50 billion overnight so that's not a problem it's going to go away and they'll continue to put

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spot applications of liquidity you're seeing in japan 10-year yields in japan are at the highest

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levels in you know a long time and yeah sorry long and and the yen is weakening markedly which

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is when your yields are rising and your currency is still weakening, that's like emerging market

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type of action, which is very important because if for the last five plus years, if you want to

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know where the 10-year treasury yield is going to be in anywhere from a few weeks to a month or two,

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just look at the direction of travel of the 10-year JGB. And the reason that is, is those are the two

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biggest carry trades funding currencies in the world going back 30 years after 89. The yen became

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a carry trade. And then after Bernanke in 2008, the dollar became a carry trade. And we saw in

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summer 2024 that anytime the yen gets too strong, the carry trade blows up. And anytime the yen gets

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too weak, dollar gets too strong, the dollar carry trade blows up. Now, I talked about that carry

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trade blow up in the summer of 2024, which, wow, I can't believe the show's been around that long

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even. And in that episode, I predicted to a degree, a prediction's a strong term, I suggested that

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this is going to be a slow roll.

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Like these types of things

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don't just unwind in a couple of weeks

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and there's going to be ups and downs for a while.

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And Luke is saying, yeah,

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yeah, we're still experiencing that.

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And it's something that needs to be watched right now.

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24, that anytime the yen gets too strong,

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the carry trade blows up.

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And anytime the yen gets too weak,

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dollar gets too strong,

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the dollar carry trade blows up.

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So you're sort of between Scylla and Charybdis

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on that front with Scylla starting to get a little mouthy

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in terms of the Japanese 10-year bond yields.

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You've got U.S. shale production rolling over and the EIA saying, hey, we need to drill faster just to stay flat with oil at 5960.

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We've got the IEA coming out saying, I know we said two years ago that peak oil demand would be here by 27 or 2030.

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Oops, it's actually not peaking at all. Demand's rising faster than we thought.

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So we've got U.S. shale, which has been 90% of world supply growth over the last 10, 12 years.

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Goering and Rosenzweig rolling over while demand that was supposed to be rolling over,

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not rolling over. So that is a stress point. You've got the geopolitical where it's becoming

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clearer and clearer. We've talked about this in the past. Russia won in Ukraine. They beat NATO.

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That is what it is. That has important implications for macro because I don't know how many times in

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my career I've been told, but it's more than one, that ultimately the US military backs the dollar.

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if we can't credibly project power conventionally

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against a major near-peer power.

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That has implications for prospective rule changes

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to the system.

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You've got Bitcoin, which to me still is the best

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or the last functioning smoke alarm,

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starting to cry shrilly and issue a very shrill warning

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of illiquidity.

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For giggles, let's layer on AI,

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which has gone from funding out of retained earnings

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and cash flow to they are now borrowing money

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and using very creative financing mechanisms.

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Remember what I said recently on the show, if the AI pump stops or even stalls, crypto stalls with it because that's the major source of liquidity. And I'm sorry I keep using the term. It's just the reality of the situation. When you have an apex predator asset, it's a black hole. It's a sinkhole in a whole works of a system. And money flows to that when it's free. And if it isn't free and floating, it can't.

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And so that's just the term we use colloquially or whatever is liquidity.

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Although I'm going to try to stop saying the word because I'm sick and tired of saying it, but it's all about the liquidity, stupid.

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You cry shrilly and issue a very shrill warning of illiquidity.

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For giggles, let's layer on AI, which has gone from funding out of retained earnings and cash flow to they are now borrowing money and using very creative financing mechanisms.

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and I had a good friend of mine point out

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that credit spreads on Oracle debt are starting to rise,

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credit default swaps on Oracle are starting to rise sharply.

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And the hyperscaler.

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The hyperscaler, yeah.

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Topping it all off, you have an issue

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where the market leaders, the semiconductors,

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and in particular NVIDIA,

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and I don't have an opinion on NVIDIA one way or another,

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all I can say is the useful life of these chips

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are said to be anywhere from three to four years

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and you can't get an electricity hookup

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in some of the most attractive places in the United States for hyperscalers till 2030, I'm hearing.

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I left that last bit in there because that is spooking the market a lot this week and last week.

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Nobody can get the power they need. It all started with Sochek when he was on a podcast,

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and he said that we have all these chips sitting on the shelf. And that started all the investors

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spiraling about the power situation and has caused some fear there.

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Sometimes you have to reset and figure out the changing landscape.

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And I think when Trump came into office, there was an expectation that at the end of the day, he would capitulate to the markets.

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The markets would be his ultimate boss.

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He would try a policy.

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If the markets bucked too hard, he would back off.

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That hasn't really been true.

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It has been true for the bond market, but not so much the rest.

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And I think everybody expected everything would be ripping.

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Liquidity would be flowing.

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Rates would probably be down.

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They might be buying Bitcoin.

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And when Trump won the election, those expectations seem to be clearly priced into the Bitcoin price.

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It just shot right up.

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It ripped after the election.

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And so I think now we're sort of resetting and looking at what we really got.

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And some of it's been really great for the industry.

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And it set up a lot of good tailwinds long term.

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But also some of it's been kind of a mixed signal bag.

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And I think Jack Mahler says it really well.

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He was on a podcast I'll have linked in the show notes.

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And he talks about this market repricing that we're seeing and really kind of resetting after some confusion.

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So the Trump administration came out, we're going to re-industrialize.

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We're going to print a lot of money and make America great again by bringing back.

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The way I think about the United States is China has disrupted red America and the Internet has disrupted blue America.

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And they both kind of fight these enemies.

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And Trump came in and said, we're going to fight China by re-industrializing.

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And that implies a lot of money printing, a lot of stimulus.

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And that hasn't happened.

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And then there was a lot of confusion of, well, how are we going to achieve that if Elon Musk is going to send us into austerity with Doge?

328
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How are we going to achieve that if we can't agree to terms with China?

329
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And so there's been a little bit of confusion of what side are we playing on, put up or shut up?

330
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Are you going to print the money or not?

331
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And that's where the confusion has come from.

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At the end of the day, to me, Bitcoin is priced on future expectations of fiat liquidity, period.

333
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Bitcoin is the antithesis of fiat.

334
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Fiat has no supply cap.

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Bitcoin is finite. Fiat can be censored. Bitcoin can't. Fiat cannot be audited. Bitcoin can be

336
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audited by anybody. And so Bitcoin is the best expression of fiat. And so if there's tightening

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of fiat liquidity, then Bitcoin is going to be the smoke alarm that shows us that. And so I

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actually put out a post on X over the weekend where I said, gold making new highs this year

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shows us that governments and central banks have to print. But Bitcoin falling from highs right now

340
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shows us that they might have a liquidity crisis before they're forced to.

341
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Now, that's actually semi-brilliant because what he's explaining is why gold is ripping

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and Bitcoin is sliding. And it is also, it's a complicated thing because gold

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is something that has thousands of years of a reputation as a hedge. It's something that if

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the central banks are buying, which is who these buyers are in some cases in large quantities in

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bulk, they can only really buy things like dollars and gold and things like that.

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And so they're buying knowing what's coming.

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And what Bitcoin is saying is before we get to that point, we're going to have an issue.

348
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So before the debasement really begins, before we go to that next gearing, you're going to

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have a money problem and you're going to have to turn that printer on sooner than you think.

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And this is always how it goes, guys.

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It's the central banks are always just a little behind.

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Since I have been following this since 2008, they've always been behind.

353
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Around COVID, I would say that was when they were kind of a little preemptive and we got crazy, crazy inflation.

354
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But they're always – because they're so data-driven and the data is collected by things that have already happened and the data doesn't reflect what's currently happening, I believe they're always inherently behind.

355
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And so while they're getting ready, I would imagine for quantitative easing, and they're getting ready to lower the rates a few more times, the truth is they probably have already needed to do it.

356
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Because they've been looking at Wall Street and seen Wall Street just crack off and think everything's okay.

357
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But Main Street's essentially been in a recession since COVID.

358
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And it's been rolling to different areas at stronger times.

359
00:25:25,337 --> 00:25:27,937
But now it seems to have spread quite wide.

360
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A family member of mine lives in a different state than I do, but a state that's been seen, well, it's Florida.

361
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It's been seen a lot of people move in.

362
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And another family member of mine is also in real estate in Austin.

363
00:25:39,477 --> 00:25:43,717
Crazy stories I'm hearing out of there about the wild dips in market demand.

364
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And I think we're seeing that spread out.

365
00:25:46,937 --> 00:25:51,077
Now the average new home buyer has ticked up to 40 years old.

366
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Last time I talked about this, they were 37.

367
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And second time home buyers are all boomers.

368
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This has changed.

369
00:25:58,597 --> 00:26:03,697
You know, when I was in my 20s, maybe my early 30s, I had two homes.

370
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It wasn't an unusual thing.

371
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I bought what they used to call a starter home, a reasonably priced starter home.

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And then I turned that into a rental after I lived there for a while.

373
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And I bought another home.

374
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And now I couldn't buy a house here today in Washington.

375
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I used to own two.

376
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It's crazy.

377
00:26:22,177 --> 00:26:24,377
I technically own the studio.

378
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So I technically still own one.

379
00:26:26,457 --> 00:26:36,677
It's really, really been rough for Main Street for really since COVID, with the exception of some house values have really skyrocketed, but even that's starting to slide a little bit.

380
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And even with the rate cuts we have seen from the Fed, it really hasn't helped mortgages much.

381
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So I think what Jack is explaining here is actually semi-brilliant.

382
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Gold's sniffing out where we're going and Bitcoin's saying, before we get there, you're going to have problems.

383
00:26:50,617 --> 00:26:51,677
I think that's it.

384
00:26:51,897 --> 00:26:53,257
I think that's exactly what we're seeing.

385
00:26:53,257 --> 00:26:59,957
year shows us that governments and central banks have to print, but Bitcoin falling from highs right

386
00:26:59,957 --> 00:27:06,397
now shows us that they might have a liquidity crisis before they're forced to. And so I think

387
00:27:06,397 --> 00:27:11,737
the two assets play different roles in that Bitcoin is a very accurate smoke alarm of where

388
00:27:11,737 --> 00:27:17,137
liquidity is today, or the gold market is sniffing out where this is inevitably going, right? We know

389
00:27:17,137 --> 00:27:22,437
QT is ending, QE is going to have to restart, rate cuts are coming, and there's all sorts of

390
00:27:22,437 --> 00:27:27,257
stimulus, whether it's Frannie Mae, Freddie Mac, a housing crisis to be declared in 2026.

391
00:27:27,697 --> 00:27:33,597
So I see this as a buy the dip opportunity. The way to monetize a currency failure is to not bet

392
00:27:33,597 --> 00:27:47,853
that the stock market going to go down 50 like Michael Burry and have your fund shut down The way you do it is by owning a better currency than the dollar which would be something like gold and Bitcoin So this is a buy the dip opportunity for me I think liquidity has to come physically There

393
00:27:47,853 --> 00:27:52,414
is no other option. And this is just a mere reaction to the lack of follow through from

394
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the administration.

395
00:28:04,194 --> 00:28:10,414
I agree that some of the turbulence could be from tariffs, the market digesting what has and hasn't been delivered.

396
00:28:11,053 --> 00:28:20,513
I also think we've had a tremendous amount of tailwind set up and that there really wouldn't be a crypto industry if the election had probably gone a different direction or not much of one.

397
00:28:21,053 --> 00:28:22,293
It's hard to say where Bitcoin would be.

398
00:28:22,954 --> 00:28:27,133
But while everybody's been freaking out, it appears that four countries have bought Bitcoin.

399
00:28:27,573 --> 00:28:31,694
Well, and also the Czech National Bank also purchased Bitcoin for the first time.

400
00:28:32,353 --> 00:28:39,533
But strong rumors are, I have not seen absolute confirmation, but there are strong rumors that the UAE has purchased Bitcoin.

401
00:28:39,734 --> 00:28:41,753
I'm looking for confirmation if anybody sees it.

402
00:28:42,694 --> 00:28:45,513
But Kelly just announced that El Salvador bought more Bitcoin.

403
00:28:46,414 --> 00:28:48,414
Luxembourg bought Bitcoin in this last week.

404
00:28:49,293 --> 00:28:50,954
And yeah, like I mentioned, the Czechs did too.

405
00:28:52,633 --> 00:29:01,333
And really what's been fascinating is individuals that have large amounts of Bitcoin who were the cohorts that were selling over the last couple of months.

406
00:29:01,694 --> 00:29:03,954
have now switched to the cohorts who are stacking.

407
00:29:04,153 --> 00:29:08,714
In fact, Bitcoin wallets that hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin in them already

408
00:29:08,714 --> 00:29:11,474
have been adding Bitcoin at a wild dip.

409
00:29:12,053 --> 00:29:14,194
And of course, your buddy Mikey Saylor is one of them.

410
00:29:14,593 --> 00:29:16,353
Last time our next guest was on CNBC,

411
00:29:16,474 --> 00:29:20,253
he was expecting Bitcoin to be $150,000 by the end of the year.

412
00:29:20,333 --> 00:29:23,833
We want to find out if he's changed his tune since late October,

413
00:29:23,954 --> 00:29:25,674
given the recent move in the crypto space.

414
00:29:25,734 --> 00:29:28,813
You're looking at Bitcoin right now at $94,632.

415
00:29:29,393 --> 00:29:32,093
Michael Saylor is here, strategy founder and executive chairman.

416
00:29:32,513 --> 00:29:33,593
Good morning to you.

417
00:29:34,454 --> 00:29:35,174
What do you think?

418
00:29:35,393 --> 00:29:36,954
150 by the end of the year?

419
00:29:37,153 --> 00:29:38,273
What do you think is happening here?

420
00:29:39,093 --> 00:29:41,613
You know, I think we all want to go to the moon.

421
00:29:41,893 --> 00:29:45,454
But if you want to ride the rocket, you got to be prepared to pull the G's.

422
00:29:45,914 --> 00:29:49,494
Over five years, Bitcoin's had like six brutal drawdowns.

423
00:29:49,793 --> 00:29:54,833
If you roll the clock back 13 months, we were sitting around 68,000.

424
00:29:54,833 --> 00:30:02,113
And then after the Trump election, we had this incredible rally from 68 to 106,000 in five weeks.

425
00:30:02,914 --> 00:30:06,293
If you go back 14 months, we were about 55,000.

426
00:30:06,593 --> 00:30:14,234
And so if you said we're going to go from 55,000 to 94,000 in 14 months, that would have exceeded any reasonable investor's expectations.

427
00:30:15,033 --> 00:30:20,393
Over five years, Bitcoin's up about 50% a year on average for the five years.

428
00:30:20,553 --> 00:30:24,013
Gold and S&P are studying the cost of capital to 14%.

429
00:30:24,013 --> 00:30:28,954
My company's strategy is up 71%, equivalent to NVIDIA.

430
00:30:29,454 --> 00:30:32,073
There's no other stock in the S&P that's done any better.

431
00:30:32,873 --> 00:30:36,934
So I think the volatility comes with the territory.

432
00:30:37,414 --> 00:30:42,133
If you're going to be a Bitcoin investor, you need a four-year time horizon,

433
00:30:42,133 --> 00:30:45,914
and you need to be prepared to handle the volatility in this market.

434
00:30:45,914 --> 00:30:49,853
So when you look at the price right now, and then we'll talk about the implications for strategy,

435
00:30:49,853 --> 00:30:55,714
But when you look at the price right now, what is the upside at this moment look like to you?

436
00:30:55,753 --> 00:30:57,833
And what is the downside in this moment look like to you?

437
00:30:58,073 --> 00:31:01,494
I will say this was, I think, yesterday as I record or around there.

438
00:31:01,573 --> 00:31:03,214
So the price was at $94,000.

439
00:31:03,434 --> 00:31:05,153
So this was, in fact, not the floor.

440
00:31:06,253 --> 00:31:11,033
You know, I feel like we put in a pretty strong base of support around here.

441
00:31:11,113 --> 00:31:15,853
There's an incredible amount of leverage coming out of the system, a lot of liquidation.

442
00:31:15,853 --> 00:31:20,474
And a lot of the OG holders were selling at the $100,000 level.

443
00:31:21,053 --> 00:31:24,333
And so I'm fairly comfortable at this level.

444
00:31:24,454 --> 00:31:27,793
I would think that we'll build from this base and we'll rally from here.

445
00:31:28,013 --> 00:31:31,234
They did not build from this base, and they did not rally from here.

446
00:31:31,853 --> 00:31:36,434
Obviously, it's hard to make a forecast for the end of the year right now,

447
00:31:36,753 --> 00:31:39,474
given what's happened over the past few weeks,

448
00:31:39,653 --> 00:31:42,313
and especially the shift in the macro environment.

449
00:31:42,313 --> 00:31:48,934
but you know as you know my view is bitcoin is going to outperform gold it's going to outperform

450
00:31:48,934 --> 00:31:55,553
the s&p it is digital capital and so if if you're a long-term investor this is the place to be

451
00:31:55,553 --> 00:32:01,414
all right so we that's enough he says strategy is going to do great and if they have a big drawdown

452
00:32:01,414 --> 00:32:07,253
80 90 drawdown they're fine so i i don't really know how far we go from here i mean that's kind

453
00:32:07,253 --> 00:32:14,533
of part of the fun. But to me, feels like 80K is the next kind of floor threshold to watch.

454
00:32:14,993 --> 00:32:18,793
I think that's at least, that would be my guess. I have absolutely no idea.

455
00:32:19,694 --> 00:32:24,993
And that leads me to my question this week. Do you just stick with the DCA strategy when we're

456
00:32:24,993 --> 00:32:30,234
having a dip like this? Or do you go in and try to do like a snipe by, you know, like a smash grab?

457
00:32:30,593 --> 00:32:35,773
I'll tell you mine. I do try to snipe the dip a little bit. Nothing major, usually just enough so

458
00:32:35,773 --> 00:32:44,694
I can say I did it, to be honest with you. But I've learned a trick and I want to I want to share it with you because I think this is some old man wisdom.

459
00:32:44,694 --> 00:32:52,133
Stay a while and listen. What I have learned is the price tends to go down in a choppy sideways fashion.

460
00:32:52,394 --> 00:33:03,894
So it it looks like it's kind of going to stabilize around eighty four thousand, say, and it holds there for a little while and then it legs down again and then it holds there for a little while and then it legs down again.

461
00:33:03,894 --> 00:33:12,214
And so it's really easy to try to buy in when you think, oh, this must be the bottom, essentially, you know, the old cliche of buying a falling knife.

462
00:33:12,333 --> 00:33:14,013
But it doesn't always look like it's falling.

463
00:33:14,133 --> 00:33:16,914
Sometimes Bitcoin dramatically drops, and that's clear.

464
00:33:17,454 --> 00:33:19,414
But other times it chops downwards.

465
00:33:19,753 --> 00:33:24,674
And that's when it can trick you and you can buy in too early, you know.

466
00:33:24,934 --> 00:33:30,993
So say earlier when it was at 94, when Mikey says, well, the floor is, I think the floor is going to be 94,000.

467
00:33:30,993 --> 00:33:33,833
Well, as I record right now, Bitcoin's 88,000.

468
00:33:34,474 --> 00:33:35,513
So that wasn't the floor.

469
00:33:35,653 --> 00:33:38,613
And if you went all in at 94, then you just missed out on a deal.

470
00:33:39,153 --> 00:33:41,454
Now, that's a tricky thing to really measure.

471
00:33:41,653 --> 00:33:45,773
So what I try to do is I try to buy near the bottom.

472
00:33:46,113 --> 00:33:49,434
Now, every now and then I do, for some reason, I just get a real strong gut sense.

473
00:33:49,434 --> 00:33:53,253
And a couple of times I've literally nailed like the bottom.

474
00:33:53,573 --> 00:33:57,394
Like the last time we hit 16K or whatever it was, I got that.

475
00:33:57,493 --> 00:33:59,734
Yeah, I'm 200 bucks worth or whatever, but I bought it.

476
00:33:59,954 --> 00:34:00,894
I just had a sense.

477
00:34:01,454 --> 00:34:02,954
This time, though, it's not so clear.

478
00:34:02,954 --> 00:34:13,973
And so in a time like this when it's not so clear, what I'll do is I'll actually wait for some upward price movement for a little while to see a little sustained upward movement.

479
00:34:14,233 --> 00:34:22,053
Not just like a little couple of days chop, but maybe a few days of upward price, plus some news that might indicate why things have turned around.

480
00:34:22,133 --> 00:34:24,473
That's when you would tune into the show here and I'd be telling you about it.

481
00:34:24,713 --> 00:34:25,854
And then I might buy.

482
00:34:26,174 --> 00:34:29,294
Now, I'm not going to buy the absolute bottom in this approach.

483
00:34:29,294 --> 00:34:35,753
I'm going to pay a little bit more, but I'm still going to pay less than if I would have gone all in earlier and got all dipped out.

484
00:34:35,934 --> 00:34:38,013
You don't want to get dipped out.

485
00:34:38,493 --> 00:34:43,674
You want to try to save some of your powder, as they call it, for when it really does get a lot lower.

486
00:34:44,434 --> 00:34:45,993
And is 88 the bottom?

487
00:34:46,174 --> 00:34:47,513
That's not my sense right now.

488
00:34:48,233 --> 00:34:48,973
That's not my sense.

489
00:34:49,053 --> 00:34:52,613
I think we're sliding at least for a little while until liquidity turns around.

490
00:34:52,753 --> 00:34:56,753
Now, Scott is going to start writing some checks, but that's a slow process.

491
00:34:57,633 --> 00:35:01,013
Quantitative easing comes to an end, but that doesn't mean money printing starts.

492
00:35:01,394 --> 00:35:04,053
And that doesn't mean that liquidity instantly hits Bitcoin either.

493
00:35:04,133 --> 00:35:07,654
Sometimes it takes a little while to get from the printer to the spot price.

494
00:35:08,753 --> 00:35:11,954
So it's not an easy thing to actually guess and nail.

495
00:35:12,093 --> 00:35:14,753
So my advice is don't try to get the absolute bottom.

496
00:35:15,553 --> 00:35:16,773
Get it on the way back up.

497
00:35:17,093 --> 00:35:22,334
I know that just makes you feel like you're a follower, but the reality is you're still getting it at a great price.

498
00:35:23,053 --> 00:35:24,733
But maybe, I don't know, maybe you have a different strategy.

499
00:35:24,733 --> 00:35:30,073
Boost in and share how you buy the dips, or do you just ignore them, stick with the DCA strat?

500
00:35:30,713 --> 00:35:38,113
Or are you taking advantage of River's new Super DCA, where when the price is down on your DCA, they'll increase your purchase based on your settings?

501
00:35:38,733 --> 00:35:40,394
That seems like a pretty cool deal, too.

502
00:35:40,854 --> 00:35:42,033
All right, let me know with a boost.

503
00:35:54,733 --> 00:36:05,033
Well, if you're going to nab some of that dip, you can support the show just by doing what you do.

504
00:36:05,113 --> 00:36:07,814
If you want to buy the sats on River, use my link in the show notes.

505
00:36:08,914 --> 00:36:11,154
Every little dip stack supports the show.

506
00:36:11,154 --> 00:36:21,033
If you are all about self-custody, you don't want a middleman wallet, the Bitcoin well is in the U.S. and Canada, and it's an amazing all-self-custody Bitcoin platform.

507
00:36:21,434 --> 00:36:23,573
You buy and sell from your own wallet.

508
00:36:23,693 --> 00:36:25,273
They don't store your Bitcoin at all.

509
00:36:25,874 --> 00:36:32,573
Now, if you got some Bitcoin, maybe some sats, you want to put them in a Lightning wallet and spend them on something, that gets you.

510
00:36:32,834 --> 00:36:34,374
The Bitcoin company's got you covered.

511
00:36:34,794 --> 00:36:38,314
You can put your sats into a gift card in just minutes all over the Lightning network.

512
00:36:38,474 --> 00:36:39,374
You don't even have to create an account.

513
00:36:39,454 --> 00:36:40,794
You could just use Lightning to log in.

514
00:36:41,374 --> 00:36:42,794
And they only do Bitcoin.

515
00:36:42,914 --> 00:36:49,133
Unlike the other gift card places that do all the different cryptos, the Bitcoin company focuses on Bitcoin.

516
00:36:49,133 --> 00:36:53,654
Now, if you want to stack sats while you're paying bills, another great place to get gift cards.

517
00:36:53,914 --> 00:36:55,454
You want to take advantage of Fold.

518
00:36:55,573 --> 00:37:00,533
That's what is like the go-to method for passive stacking while paying bills, the Fold card.

519
00:37:01,113 --> 00:37:07,394
Last but not least, if you need to get access to your Bitcoin without selling it, a little liquidity yourself, check out Salt Lending.

520
00:37:07,834 --> 00:37:14,193
One of the nice things is they do have a margin call protection program where when things get real dicey,

521
00:37:14,193 --> 00:37:20,713
They can convert your Bitcoin collateral into stable coins, hold it at that value, and then convert it back once the price starts going up.

522
00:37:20,974 --> 00:37:23,374
It's real nice during those kind of dicey moments.

523
00:37:23,773 --> 00:37:25,874
Links to all of that in the show notes.

524
00:37:38,294 --> 00:37:40,033
Well, it is time for the boost.

525
00:37:40,033 --> 00:37:44,533
And now it is time for the boost.

526
00:37:44,533 --> 00:37:50,654
Now, I do have to say we have we have no baller boost this week.

527
00:37:50,753 --> 00:37:54,133
That's OK. That's OK. But we have a good batch of boosts.

528
00:37:54,213 --> 00:37:59,093
And Gene Bing kicks us off with three thousand five hundred and fifty nine sats.

529
00:37:59,253 --> 00:38:01,073
Put some macaroni and cheese on there, too.

530
00:38:01,334 --> 00:38:06,474
Gene says that regarding what I spend my sats at a store with squares, a new terminal.

531
00:38:07,253 --> 00:38:07,654
Absolutely.

532
00:38:07,954 --> 00:38:12,414
But I would do it via the cash side of the strike app where I pay the invoice straight from my checking account.

533
00:38:12,513 --> 00:38:14,914
I do it every time simply to help normalize paying that way.

534
00:38:15,533 --> 00:38:17,033
Yeah, that's a nice feature of the cash app.

535
00:38:17,733 --> 00:38:19,013
Sometimes it just moves things over.

536
00:38:19,613 --> 00:38:21,834
Gene asks, are you staying on knots or core?

537
00:38:21,934 --> 00:38:25,133
If core 30, are you making any changes to the default configuration?

538
00:38:25,314 --> 00:38:26,553
Great question, Gene.

539
00:38:27,033 --> 00:38:28,553
Very much been on my mind.

540
00:38:29,154 --> 00:38:34,053
So I have been deferring on my main, like my main production note.

541
00:38:34,113 --> 00:38:35,334
I've just been deferring the upgrade.

542
00:38:36,474 --> 00:38:40,434
But after today's news, which I'll get to in the updates,

543
00:38:40,854 --> 00:38:43,414
I might eventually go to core 30 with config changes.

544
00:38:43,474 --> 00:38:44,553
I just haven't made up my mind yet.

545
00:38:44,553 --> 00:38:46,493
But I don't think I'm going to be going to knots.

546
00:38:47,334 --> 00:38:48,814
And I'll explain why in the update section.

547
00:38:49,053 --> 00:38:49,513
Good question.

548
00:38:49,613 --> 00:38:49,993
Thank you, Gene.

549
00:38:50,733 --> 00:38:53,354
Paranoid Coder comes in with 2,000 sats.

550
00:38:54,993 --> 00:38:57,474
I've been appreciating your rational take on the filtering debate.

551
00:38:57,573 --> 00:38:57,974
Keep it up.

552
00:38:58,253 --> 00:38:59,794
And thanks for the content, as always.

553
00:38:59,974 --> 00:39:00,693
Thank you, Paranoid.

554
00:39:01,193 --> 00:39:03,073
Yeah, I've been following it this week.

555
00:39:03,133 --> 00:39:04,073
I got a few updates.

556
00:39:04,753 --> 00:39:06,294
And there's been some, you know, I have to say,

557
00:39:06,294 --> 00:39:09,113
there's been changes on both sides that I think are worth talking about,

558
00:39:09,233 --> 00:39:10,974
but it's not as big of an update this week.

559
00:39:11,053 --> 00:39:11,273
Thank you,

560
00:39:11,294 --> 00:39:11,493
paranoid.

561
00:39:12,053 --> 00:39:12,753
Appreciate that.

562
00:39:13,394 --> 00:39:15,314
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

563
00:39:16,314 --> 00:39:18,354
2,222 sats.

564
00:39:18,894 --> 00:39:19,314
Ace says,

565
00:39:19,434 --> 00:39:21,794
I can tell you with absolute certainty,

566
00:39:21,794 --> 00:39:25,334
I will never trade sats for a pumpkin spice latte.

567
00:39:26,934 --> 00:39:27,914
It's understandable.

568
00:39:29,294 --> 00:39:30,334
What about a pizza?

569
00:39:31,454 --> 00:39:31,934
Thanks,

570
00:39:32,053 --> 00:39:32,173
Ace.

571
00:39:32,834 --> 00:39:34,753
So hangs here with 2,000 sats.

572
00:39:34,753 --> 00:39:42,914
Hey, Chris, I usually listen to the Linux stuff you make, but I occasionally tune in over here, even though I don't really care about the coin stuff.

573
00:39:43,374 --> 00:39:45,294
You're really just that good of a podcaster.

574
00:39:45,713 --> 00:39:48,273
And so a good podcaster gets sats.

575
00:39:50,213 --> 00:39:50,934
Thank you, sir.

576
00:39:51,013 --> 00:39:51,993
Fun will now commence.

577
00:39:52,154 --> 00:39:56,213
Anyways, the op return drama was so tempting not to check it out for myself.

578
00:39:56,654 --> 00:39:58,033
It's sizzling and fresh off the grill.

579
00:39:58,133 --> 00:40:00,533
The hot take the Bitcoin cash people were right all along.

580
00:40:00,533 --> 00:40:05,993
Give me both SegWit and larger blocks and forget about the whole innovative side of chain apps nonsense.

581
00:40:06,314 --> 00:40:08,454
Oh, that cuts deep.

582
00:40:08,874 --> 00:40:09,294
Thank you, sir.

583
00:40:09,993 --> 00:40:13,294
Even though you don't enjoy the coin crap.

584
00:40:13,613 --> 00:40:14,914
Live long and prosper.

585
00:40:15,633 --> 00:40:19,794
VC Volo comes in with 2,521 sats.

586
00:40:23,354 --> 00:40:24,934
Of course I'm going to spend my sats.

587
00:40:25,133 --> 00:40:25,874
I don't have another choice.

588
00:40:26,154 --> 00:40:27,113
I don't hold dollars.

589
00:40:27,753 --> 00:40:28,273
Whoa, really?

590
00:40:28,273 --> 00:40:30,914
I'd like to hear a little bit more about that.

591
00:40:30,974 --> 00:40:31,894
Have you told me more about that?

592
00:40:31,974 --> 00:40:33,914
Are you doing like credit card for some stuff?

593
00:40:34,354 --> 00:40:36,073
Even when a merchant sees me using a credit card,

594
00:40:36,154 --> 00:40:41,173
I'm paying this and I use it via Bitcoin bill payment via strike.

595
00:40:41,354 --> 00:40:43,253
But for everyone else, they can use the Cash App

596
00:40:43,253 --> 00:40:45,273
to make a Lightning payment from their USD balance

597
00:40:45,273 --> 00:40:46,273
or a linked debit card.

598
00:40:46,773 --> 00:40:48,474
Bitcoin is a new payments rail.

599
00:40:48,974 --> 00:40:50,974
Yeah, I love that Cash App is doing this.

600
00:40:51,173 --> 00:40:52,414
So if you didn't know out there,

601
00:40:52,533 --> 00:40:55,974
Cash App will let you spend your dollar balance

602
00:40:55,974 --> 00:40:57,854
over the Lightning network.

603
00:40:58,273 --> 00:41:00,113
they're just handling it on the back end.

604
00:41:00,173 --> 00:41:00,773
How cool is that?

605
00:41:01,374 --> 00:41:02,273
So you have a credit card.

606
00:41:02,374 --> 00:41:03,513
Okay, so that rings a bell.

607
00:41:03,593 --> 00:41:05,233
Okay, so I'm just curious how that's working

608
00:41:05,233 --> 00:41:07,334
because this, my dream,

609
00:41:07,834 --> 00:41:09,053
and I don't think I'm going to get there this year

610
00:41:09,053 --> 00:41:10,273
because I've just been so busy.

611
00:41:10,374 --> 00:41:14,713
My dream is all my income comes in via SATs

612
00:41:14,713 --> 00:41:17,314
and then either through a line of credit

613
00:41:17,314 --> 00:41:19,693
that is reasonable or through strike bill pay

614
00:41:19,693 --> 00:41:20,894
and I just pay the tax stuff.

615
00:41:21,233 --> 00:41:22,414
I pay what I need,

616
00:41:22,533 --> 00:41:38,930
like a once a month credit card bill or something like that Like that would be the dream is maybe one or two bills I don know I don know I love to I love to just have an update on how that working for you Thank you for the boost Bob is here with a row of ducks Unless Square has an SBR a Bitcoin

617
00:41:38,930 --> 00:41:43,670
reserve, they're likely to just immediately convert to fiat. Keeping every changing asset on the books

618
00:41:43,670 --> 00:41:47,310
would be a nightmare. They're only interested in velocity of transactions and the fees associated

619
00:41:47,310 --> 00:41:51,430
with them. Although I appreciate the novelty and widespread adoption, why would I exchange a hard

620
00:41:51,430 --> 00:41:55,290
asset for a depreciating one, let alone a consumable one. Who wants to go down in this

621
00:41:55,290 --> 00:41:59,710
history as purchasing the most expensive cup of coffee in the world for or pizza? I'll just stack

622
00:41:59,710 --> 00:42:06,430
and huddle. Yeah, I guess maybe because I've spent so much Bitcoin that I've had to come to

623
00:42:06,430 --> 00:42:10,830
terms with this, but I very much still think we are in an age where there needs to be some people

624
00:42:10,830 --> 00:42:15,090
spending Bitcoin in order to help with adoption, help these developers that are creating apps,

625
00:42:15,410 --> 00:42:20,370
build out the network. And so, I mean, I am not exaggerating when I say I've,

626
00:42:20,370 --> 00:42:22,010
I don't even want to say the number.

627
00:42:22,250 --> 00:42:23,430
You guys are going to think I'm so stupid.

628
00:42:24,510 --> 00:42:28,310
I bet you I've spent over 100 Bitcoin in my life.

629
00:42:31,390 --> 00:42:32,530
But you have to understand,

630
00:42:32,950 --> 00:42:34,230
it was at a time when it was worth a lot less.

631
00:42:34,230 --> 00:42:36,350
So it took more Bitcoin to get what you needed.

632
00:42:36,770 --> 00:42:39,150
In fact, I'd bet you it's easily, easily that.

633
00:42:39,930 --> 00:42:42,490
So, you know, you're welcome.

634
00:42:43,590 --> 00:42:46,830
But by the way, Square does have a Bitcoin reserve.

635
00:42:46,830 --> 00:42:57,330
Square slash Block owns approximately 8,584 Bitcoin, which is one of the large-ish of publicly held companies that have a Bitcoin reserve.

636
00:42:57,510 --> 00:43:01,490
We haven't had an update in a little while, but yeah, 8,584.

637
00:43:01,650 --> 00:43:07,870
I don't know how much from these transactions they're keeping, if any, but even just a reduction in cost to operate the network would be a pretty big win.

638
00:43:08,350 --> 00:43:09,970
Thanks, Boba. Appreciate the boost.

639
00:43:10,430 --> 00:43:14,130
One Doll Geeks here with 2,345 sats.

640
00:43:14,130 --> 00:43:16,610
I like you. You're a hot ticket.

641
00:43:16,610 --> 00:43:18,830
Yeah, I'm going to spend those sats when I can.

642
00:43:18,910 --> 00:43:21,450
The tricky part is a way to have my wife spend the sats.

643
00:43:21,810 --> 00:43:23,290
That's going to take some time training for her.

644
00:43:23,590 --> 00:43:26,930
And to be honest, also for me to see what's possible when it comes to shared spending.

645
00:43:27,350 --> 00:43:28,510
Currently, we have a shared credit card.

646
00:43:28,590 --> 00:43:31,550
I'm not sure if they'll do the same thing with Bitcoin or something different.

647
00:43:32,310 --> 00:43:32,630
Hmm.

648
00:43:33,290 --> 00:43:35,370
I was going to suggest Cash App until you said shared.

649
00:43:36,250 --> 00:43:38,010
I wonder if there'd be a way to do this with the Zen wallet.

650
00:43:39,190 --> 00:43:40,950
Or I'm sorry, not Zen wallet, Zeus wallet.

651
00:43:41,650 --> 00:43:45,630
He says, in the meantime, I'm likely going to be spending and replacing sats when I can.

652
00:43:45,630 --> 00:43:47,610
and my wife will use the fiat credit card.

653
00:43:47,970 --> 00:43:48,710
Yeah, that's what I do.

654
00:43:49,010 --> 00:43:51,030
And that's how I kind of do the accounting on it too,

655
00:43:51,090 --> 00:43:52,350
is I keep a pretty small balance

656
00:43:52,350 --> 00:43:54,510
under 100,000 SATs of spending SATs.

657
00:43:54,550 --> 00:43:55,410
And that's what I boost with.

658
00:43:55,490 --> 00:43:56,410
That's what I'd use for

659
00:43:56,410 --> 00:43:57,750
if I was going to use a gift card or something.

660
00:43:58,290 --> 00:44:00,290
And I try to spend those within the month

661
00:44:00,290 --> 00:44:01,990
that I bought them, generally speaking.

662
00:44:02,650 --> 00:44:04,450
And that makes the, when I bought them

663
00:44:04,450 --> 00:44:06,190
and when I sold them, pretty much nothing.

664
00:44:07,050 --> 00:44:08,070
That's not tax advice.

665
00:44:08,130 --> 00:44:09,550
I could get totally screwed on that strategy.

666
00:44:09,930 --> 00:44:11,550
That's my SAT spending strategy though.

667
00:44:11,870 --> 00:44:14,510
And that's a small portion of my overall holding,

668
00:44:14,510 --> 00:44:16,010
But again, it's a savings and checking.

669
00:44:16,650 --> 00:44:29,010
I think probably ultimately the combination to me seems like a fiat credit card where you're getting rewards or points or something paid off with Bitcoin or a line of credit even better based on a Bitcoin collateral.

670
00:44:29,830 --> 00:44:33,570
Complicated, but no more complicated than the rich and the famous do it.

671
00:44:34,110 --> 00:44:35,090
Thanks for the boost, Wendell.

672
00:44:35,250 --> 00:44:35,770
Appreciate it.

673
00:44:36,170 --> 00:44:39,110
OB's here with 6,000 sats.

674
00:44:39,750 --> 00:44:40,650
Reporting in.

675
00:44:41,070 --> 00:44:42,470
And he just says, STEMIs.

676
00:44:42,470 --> 00:44:42,910
Yeah.

677
00:44:43,370 --> 00:44:43,850
All right.

678
00:44:44,510 --> 00:44:45,970
Nuclear launch detected.

679
00:44:46,290 --> 00:44:47,770
Small update on the Stimmies today.

680
00:44:47,850 --> 00:44:48,590
Real small update.

681
00:44:48,650 --> 00:44:50,430
Just because you know that stuff is hitting Bitcoin.

682
00:44:51,030 --> 00:44:54,690
Nakamoto 6102 comes in with 2,121 sats.

683
00:44:54,810 --> 00:44:56,130
Coming in hot with the boom.

684
00:44:56,150 --> 00:44:56,670
All right.

685
00:44:57,330 --> 00:44:58,170
Thanks for the value.

686
00:44:58,250 --> 00:45:02,370
I probably won't spend sats at Square, often due to the potential tax implications.

687
00:45:03,030 --> 00:45:03,910
Yeah, that's understandable.

688
00:45:03,910 --> 00:45:10,970
There may be legislation in the future in different jurisdictions that deal with transactions under $500, $600.

689
00:45:11,510 --> 00:45:13,130
There's been some talk of legislation around that.

690
00:45:13,130 --> 00:45:19,950
there's also perhaps the cash app approach where you're just immediately buying usd and it's sending

691
00:45:19,950 --> 00:45:24,130
it over the lightning network so then you can still actually take advantage of for them on the

692
00:45:24,130 --> 00:45:27,850
merchant side you're still using bitcoin as far as they're concerned that could be a nice middle

693
00:45:27,850 --> 00:45:34,050
ground really and then you know cash pretty good app too also owned by jack torsey so you know there

694
00:45:34,050 --> 00:45:42,570
you go thank you for the boost there appreciate it pj is here with 4 444 sats spending sats for

695
00:45:42,570 --> 00:45:49,430
product feels so weird, but sending sats for killer podcasts feels so right. Yes, yes. Make it

696
00:45:49,430 --> 00:45:53,530
show. I've always felt weird using my phone for a kiosk credit card payments via Google Pay,

697
00:45:53,790 --> 00:45:58,850
but knowing those sats are in my wallet driven by my Fostec, it feels a bit better. I suppose if I

698
00:45:58,850 --> 00:46:03,810
had sats on my mobile wallet and somehow lost my physical wallet, I'd spend some in a pinch.

699
00:46:04,130 --> 00:46:07,430
For now, my spending budget goes to value for value. Got a hodl for that retirement.

700
00:46:08,130 --> 00:46:12,030
I know I've told the story before, but when I was in El Salvador and I used the Zeus wallet

701
00:46:12,030 --> 00:46:16,750
over tail scale connected to my node to buy breakfast for a row of ducks.

702
00:46:17,710 --> 00:46:18,690
Boy, man, that was real.

703
00:46:18,750 --> 00:46:19,510
And it was so fast.

704
00:46:20,250 --> 00:46:20,930
So fast.

705
00:46:21,410 --> 00:46:21,950
So cool.

706
00:46:22,090 --> 00:46:25,110
And that was like, man, it was just the greatest moment.

707
00:46:25,330 --> 00:46:27,430
It was like, wow, here I am in a completely different country.

708
00:46:28,270 --> 00:46:28,490
You know?

709
00:46:28,790 --> 00:46:30,810
It just felt better because I wasn't even in the States.

710
00:46:30,930 --> 00:46:32,330
I was somewhere else entirely.

711
00:46:32,390 --> 00:46:33,830
I don't know why, but it just mattered.

712
00:46:34,470 --> 00:46:34,750
All right.

713
00:46:34,770 --> 00:46:35,230
Thank you, PJ.

714
00:46:35,350 --> 00:46:35,810
Appreciate it.

715
00:46:35,810 --> 00:46:38,690
Thank you for helping us help you help us all.

716
00:46:39,010 --> 00:46:41,870
Next boost comes from Kiwi Bitcoin Guide for $4,000.

717
00:46:42,030 --> 00:46:43,570
567 sats.

718
00:46:43,690 --> 00:46:45,870
Oh my God, this drawer is filled with fruit loops.

719
00:46:45,950 --> 00:46:48,630
Every month, I add a little extra to my regular DCA

720
00:46:48,630 --> 00:46:50,370
and keep it in a mobile wallet for spending.

721
00:46:50,730 --> 00:46:51,850
I want Bitcoin to be money.

722
00:46:52,270 --> 00:46:54,130
So I want to make that a reality.

723
00:46:54,570 --> 00:46:56,890
There aren't too many merchants who accept Bitcoin around me.

724
00:46:57,070 --> 00:46:58,670
Well, but not zero.

725
00:46:59,070 --> 00:47:00,030
I pay for haircuts.

726
00:47:00,130 --> 00:47:00,570
Oh, cool.

727
00:47:00,650 --> 00:47:02,850
And always support cafes and restaurants who accept it.

728
00:47:02,850 --> 00:47:06,110
I find a merchant who accepts sats in a place and I visit them.

729
00:47:06,390 --> 00:47:08,130
I make a point of going there and spending sats.

730
00:47:08,250 --> 00:47:10,770
I also pay for as many online services as I can in sats,

731
00:47:10,770 --> 00:47:13,470
like Proton, Molvad, PPQ.ai.

732
00:47:13,790 --> 00:47:14,610
Those are some examples.

733
00:47:14,810 --> 00:47:16,110
And of course, Boost.

734
00:47:16,430 --> 00:47:17,310
This is how I do it.

735
00:47:17,930 --> 00:47:18,970
Kiwi, you got to figure it out.

736
00:47:19,330 --> 00:47:21,330
I will add one thing I've been doing recently

737
00:47:21,330 --> 00:47:24,450
is when I see that a merchant around here

738
00:47:24,450 --> 00:47:25,970
has a Bitcoin ATM,

739
00:47:26,510 --> 00:47:27,610
I'll go in and just strike up

740
00:47:27,610 --> 00:47:29,030
a quick conversation with them about it.

741
00:47:29,210 --> 00:47:30,550
Just see what their thoughts are on it.

742
00:47:31,250 --> 00:47:32,970
And I have been surprised.

743
00:47:33,470 --> 00:47:34,610
And I took a picture recently.

744
00:47:35,410 --> 00:47:36,630
They're putting the signage

745
00:47:36,630 --> 00:47:37,630
on the outside of the building

746
00:47:37,630 --> 00:47:38,690
that they have a Bitcoin ATM.

747
00:47:39,030 --> 00:47:39,810
They're like advertising

748
00:47:39,810 --> 00:47:40,870
on the outside of the building.

749
00:47:41,030 --> 00:47:41,990
Bitcoin ATM here.

750
00:47:42,570 --> 00:47:43,050
It's fascinating.

751
00:47:43,690 --> 00:47:44,590
Yeah, I too, I think,

752
00:47:44,970 --> 00:47:46,450
especially with this cash app option,

753
00:47:46,510 --> 00:47:47,830
I think I'm going to make an effort

754
00:47:47,830 --> 00:47:50,310
to try to encourage more in my local area

755
00:47:50,310 --> 00:47:51,330
because there is not

756
00:47:51,330 --> 00:47:52,870
in a specific Northwest corridor,

757
00:47:53,030 --> 00:47:53,850
this I-5 corridor.

758
00:47:54,330 --> 00:47:55,370
It's just not enough.

759
00:47:55,450 --> 00:47:55,850
There's a few,

760
00:47:56,530 --> 00:47:57,890
like some bike shops, but not enough.

761
00:47:58,190 --> 00:47:58,730
Thank you, Kiwi.

762
00:47:59,190 --> 00:47:59,950
Appreciate you.

763
00:48:00,790 --> 00:48:01,570
TruGitz is here.

764
00:48:01,650 --> 00:48:03,270
Hey, TruGitz, nice to see you.

765
00:48:03,530 --> 00:48:04,890
And he's got a Spaceballs boost.

766
00:48:05,010 --> 00:48:06,570
One, two, three, four, five sats.

767
00:48:06,710 --> 00:48:07,950
So the combination is

768
00:48:07,950 --> 00:48:10,890
one, two, three, four, five.

769
00:48:11,470 --> 00:48:12,330
Well, surprise, surprise.

770
00:48:12,590 --> 00:48:13,850
I'm still making my way up

771
00:48:13,850 --> 00:48:15,010
to the current episodes.

772
00:48:15,550 --> 00:48:16,310
Lessons for everybody.

773
00:48:16,410 --> 00:48:17,210
Don't ever get behind.

774
00:48:17,690 --> 00:48:18,650
I think I've been catching up

775
00:48:18,650 --> 00:48:19,850
since the Bitcoin dad pod.

776
00:48:20,150 --> 00:48:20,650
It's been a while

777
00:48:20,650 --> 00:48:21,610
since we had a good old fashioned

778
00:48:21,610 --> 00:48:22,410
Chris soapbox.

779
00:48:22,530 --> 00:48:23,610
I enjoy them for no other reason

780
00:48:23,610 --> 00:48:24,730
than you are clearly passionate.

781
00:48:25,090 --> 00:48:25,570
And in this case,

782
00:48:25,630 --> 00:48:26,510
people are actively,

783
00:48:26,910 --> 00:48:27,650
maybe accidentally,

784
00:48:28,010 --> 00:48:29,630
advocating to keep podcasting stagnant.

785
00:48:29,750 --> 00:48:30,390
Keep up the work.

786
00:48:30,570 --> 00:48:32,730
Oh, I think I know

787
00:48:32,730 --> 00:48:33,810
what rant you're talking about.

788
00:48:34,190 --> 00:48:35,390
True Gritz, it's good to hear from you.

789
00:48:35,770 --> 00:48:37,330
And thanks for the time traveler boost.

790
00:48:37,950 --> 00:48:38,670
Appreciate that.

791
00:48:39,510 --> 00:48:40,550
Marius February is here.

792
00:48:40,630 --> 00:48:42,650
I think that's probably it with 10,000 sats.

793
00:48:42,790 --> 00:48:44,530
It's over 9,000!

794
00:48:45,250 --> 00:48:48,370
Thank you for summarizing the events when I don't have much time to stay up to date.

795
00:48:48,490 --> 00:48:49,550
Well, thank you for boosting it.

796
00:48:49,570 --> 00:48:51,730
I think that's your first boost, I believe.

797
00:48:52,290 --> 00:48:54,170
Sorry if it's not, but it's nice to hear from you.

798
00:48:55,450 --> 00:48:57,490
Hey, Ed Brotten's back with a row of ducks.

799
00:48:58,870 --> 00:49:01,230
In anticipation of your deep dive on AlbiHub.

800
00:49:01,350 --> 00:49:01,870
Oh, here we go.

801
00:49:01,910 --> 00:49:07,250
Which is in the works, although it may be after the Thanksgiving holiday, by the way, but it is in the works.

802
00:49:07,250 --> 00:49:09,830
It's something I have to figure out, you know, also Wes's schedule.

803
00:49:10,270 --> 00:49:13,030
But let me say AlbiHub is becoming a growing disappointment for me.

804
00:49:13,130 --> 00:49:21,930
I tried to create a two-hosted Docker AlbiHub instance with the idea that I would experiment with custom channels between the two instances to try to avoid the LSP's baked into AlbiHub.

805
00:49:22,490 --> 00:49:22,930
Wrong.

806
00:49:23,530 --> 00:49:29,810
It seems at every turn AlbiHub hides key technical details, config options from the UI in the name of security and ease of use.

807
00:49:30,230 --> 00:49:33,970
Overriding the default web address for the web admin console with a secure Tailnet IP

808
00:49:33,970 --> 00:49:37,450
seems to break AlbiHub's interaction with the external internet.

809
00:49:37,990 --> 00:49:40,590
AlbiHub is not an experimenter's dream, more of a nightmare.

810
00:49:41,250 --> 00:49:42,810
Well, I don't think that's been my impression.

811
00:49:43,030 --> 00:49:48,070
Although I kind of think, I don't know if I've accessed an AlbiHub over a Tailnet IP.

812
00:49:48,490 --> 00:49:52,050
So what you're trying to say is you're trying to get AlbiHub to listen on the Tailnet IP.

813
00:49:52,050 --> 00:49:57,130
And when you get it to listen on the Tailnet Hub IP, it can't do stuff on the public internet?

814
00:49:57,450 --> 00:49:58,350
Am I following you, Ed?

815
00:49:58,350 --> 00:50:05,270
that probably is a problem if i'm following you there and i don't know if i've tried that

816
00:50:05,270 --> 00:50:10,910
i am a big mesh networking guy i don't know if i've tried to implicitly get the server to just

817
00:50:10,910 --> 00:50:15,510
listen on the tail net ip thanks ed and i would like a little more info on that it's something i

818
00:50:15,510 --> 00:50:21,390
could always bring up to them next time i chat bobby pins here with 10 000 sats woohoo that's a

819
00:50:21,390 --> 00:50:27,370
tasty burger this is a tasty burger you want to know how to raise you want to know how a raise

820
00:50:27,370 --> 00:50:33,650
like a payment and pay raise would get processed by the economy well i'd increase my dca yeah man

821
00:50:33,650 --> 00:50:40,970
that's right i love it dude the traders love the vol also i'd have a bit more for my smash buys

822
00:50:40,970 --> 00:50:46,710
when the price drops yep there's also talks of a 2000 stemmy coming in that should cover the cost

823
00:50:46,710 --> 00:50:50,790
of a Avalon Q and a few months of electricity.

824
00:50:51,490 --> 00:50:52,450
How interesting.

825
00:50:52,990 --> 00:50:54,830
So I guess both of them would get processed

826
00:50:54,830 --> 00:50:55,850
as sets in my wallet.

827
00:50:55,950 --> 00:50:59,030
You know, I have missed out for some,

828
00:50:59,090 --> 00:51:00,210
maybe as a small business owner,

829
00:51:00,250 --> 00:51:00,910
I don't know what it is

830
00:51:00,910 --> 00:51:02,590
because I don't make a ton of money,

831
00:51:02,670 --> 00:51:04,770
but I did not get the last rounds of stimmies,

832
00:51:05,330 --> 00:51:07,150
the COVID round or the Trump round.

833
00:51:07,610 --> 00:51:09,090
But if I did get $2,000,

834
00:51:09,650 --> 00:51:10,810
you know what I would love to do

835
00:51:10,810 --> 00:51:13,430
is get like maybe a bidaxe or something,

836
00:51:13,870 --> 00:51:14,770
spend some of it on that.

837
00:51:15,010 --> 00:51:15,850
That's a great idea.

838
00:51:15,850 --> 00:51:17,510
I've wanted to do that badly.

839
00:51:18,110 --> 00:51:19,710
Just a little, you know, fun miner, you know?

840
00:51:19,850 --> 00:51:21,870
How cool would it be to come on here and give you a little mining updates

841
00:51:21,870 --> 00:51:23,290
from my tiny little stupid pleb miner?

842
00:51:23,730 --> 00:51:24,410
I'd love that.

843
00:51:24,930 --> 00:51:25,730
I like your outlook.

844
00:51:26,030 --> 00:51:27,510
I think that's pretty good, Bobby.

845
00:51:27,990 --> 00:51:30,290
Yeah, up that DCA for a little bit when that stimmy comes in.

846
00:51:30,290 --> 00:51:33,830
I will have a stimmy update for you in just a little bit, just a small one,

847
00:51:34,410 --> 00:51:35,670
coming up in the update section.

848
00:51:36,210 --> 00:51:37,390
Thank you, everybody who boosted.

849
00:51:37,450 --> 00:51:38,770
It was a lighter week.

850
00:51:38,850 --> 00:51:41,990
We had 39 of you stream sats, and you collectively stacked for the streaming,

851
00:51:42,470 --> 00:51:44,690
31,951 sats.

852
00:51:44,690 --> 00:51:49,970
When you combine that with our boosters, we stacked 101,840.

853
00:51:50,090 --> 00:51:52,210
So not a total bust.

854
00:51:52,770 --> 00:51:57,910
Really, a lot of our longtime regulars coming in with regular amounts brought us up to 100,000.

855
00:51:57,990 --> 00:51:58,950
So that feels pretty good.

856
00:51:59,670 --> 00:52:01,870
Thank you, everybody out there who does support the show.

857
00:52:02,650 --> 00:52:05,130
Really do appreciate it, especially these days.

858
00:52:05,310 --> 00:52:08,290
It's a lot of work, but I'm very passionate about the subject matter.

859
00:52:08,390 --> 00:52:10,630
So to have you step up with the value is much appreciated.

860
00:52:10,730 --> 00:52:14,010
If you'd like to boost the show, Fountain FM is making it easier and easier,

861
00:52:14,010 --> 00:52:15,210
and they host the whole infrastructure,

862
00:52:15,510 --> 00:52:16,490
or you can go get AlbiHub

863
00:52:16,490 --> 00:52:18,630
and see if it's a nightmare or a dream.

864
00:52:19,230 --> 00:52:21,130
And you can start at podcastapps.com

865
00:52:21,130 --> 00:52:22,210
for a new podcast app.

866
00:52:25,290 --> 00:52:27,690
All right, well, let's do a few updates.

867
00:52:27,810 --> 00:52:30,890
I'd like to talk about the reduced data temporary soft fork,

868
00:52:30,990 --> 00:52:34,810
aka the proposal formerly known as BIP444,

869
00:52:34,810 --> 00:52:38,250
aka the filter fork, aka the spam filter BIP.

870
00:52:38,830 --> 00:52:42,230
And I do like that they're trying out some new narratives

871
00:52:42,230 --> 00:52:46,870
because they have gotten some pushback on the whole CSAM is the primary concern

872
00:52:46,870 --> 00:52:50,670
because it's been, you know, kind of over-hit.

873
00:52:50,850 --> 00:52:52,410
You know, it's sort of over-focused on.

874
00:52:52,870 --> 00:52:57,170
So the Bitcoin mechanic, who I like, he was on stage recently at an event

875
00:52:57,170 --> 00:53:00,870
and tried to roll out a new narrative of why we need two soft fork.

876
00:53:01,630 --> 00:53:04,470
Like, the users can't delete it. It's a gift.

877
00:53:04,470 --> 00:53:11,510
If I'm some guy scamming someone and I need some old lady to pull some malware from something

878
00:53:11,510 --> 00:53:13,110
and then run it on her computer.

879
00:53:13,350 --> 00:53:15,730
If it's my server she has to download it from,

880
00:53:15,850 --> 00:53:17,030
there's a trail there.

881
00:53:17,270 --> 00:53:18,270
But if I can tell her, yeah,

882
00:53:18,310 --> 00:53:20,070
just reach out to the Bitcoin network

883
00:53:20,070 --> 00:53:22,130
and block 920,000,

884
00:53:22,630 --> 00:53:23,890
download this op return,

885
00:53:24,130 --> 00:53:26,010
and here is the malware, run it locally,

886
00:53:26,350 --> 00:53:27,650
chop off the first few bytes.

887
00:53:28,090 --> 00:53:30,490
It's such a gift for people that want to do scaring

888
00:53:30,490 --> 00:53:31,330
and stuff like that.

889
00:53:31,350 --> 00:53:31,530
Wait, wait, wait, what?

890
00:53:31,530 --> 00:53:31,590
What?

891
00:53:32,330 --> 00:53:34,090
So, okay.

892
00:53:34,570 --> 00:53:34,810
All right.

893
00:53:34,890 --> 00:53:37,250
So we need to potentially soft fork

894
00:53:37,250 --> 00:53:39,690
and lock up people's UTXOs for a year

895
00:53:39,690 --> 00:53:43,550
because some theoretical scammer might get some theoretical granny

896
00:53:43,550 --> 00:53:46,690
to use some sort of new tool that has yet to be created

897
00:53:46,690 --> 00:53:52,670
to go extract malware from some random plebs Bitcoin node

898
00:53:52,670 --> 00:53:56,070
and then granny would then extract it

899
00:53:56,070 --> 00:53:58,810
and then chop off the bits somehow with another tool

900
00:53:58,810 --> 00:54:01,810
and then granny would execute that malware

901
00:54:01,810 --> 00:54:04,810
and have her fortune stolen?

902
00:54:05,050 --> 00:54:06,330
What are we concerned?

903
00:54:06,330 --> 00:54:11,950
that's where soft forking and taking away people's utxos and creating a new way where the federal

904
00:54:11,950 --> 00:54:17,510
government could then filter other transactions to me really is this is this the alternative

905
00:54:17,510 --> 00:54:22,210
narrative i gotta listen again i gotta play that because i'm not sure if i'm maybe i'm not following

906
00:54:22,210 --> 00:54:27,750
this this can't be it and i need to up i need some old lady to pull some malware from something

907
00:54:27,750 --> 00:54:32,650
and then run it on her computer if it's my server she has to download it from this is there's a

908
00:54:32,650 --> 00:54:38,310
trail there. But if I can tell her, yeah, just reach out to the Bitcoin network and block 920,000,

909
00:54:38,890 --> 00:54:43,890
download this op return, and here is the malware, run it locally, chop off the first few bytes.

910
00:54:44,290 --> 00:54:47,590
It's such a gift for people that want to do scamming and stuff like that.

911
00:54:47,590 --> 00:54:52,530
I just don't follow. That doesn't seem like a real risk. That seems like a theoretical

912
00:54:52,530 --> 00:54:58,950
possibility. But the real threat would be turning the entire Bitcoin node network over to knots,

913
00:54:58,950 --> 00:55:01,750
where they would be essentially

914
00:55:01,750 --> 00:55:04,250
under the governance of one developer.

915
00:55:05,330 --> 00:55:08,990
And I think really this test of a new narrative

916
00:55:08,990 --> 00:55:11,510
is because they have a real problem setting in.

917
00:55:11,510 --> 00:55:14,550
And that problem is that Bitcoin Core 30

918
00:55:14,550 --> 00:55:16,510
is seeing rapid adoption.

919
00:55:17,170 --> 00:55:18,350
And if Notts doesn't have a lot of...

920
00:55:18,387 --> 00:55:23,687
large enough share, well, how are they going to get consensus? And so as the network slips from

921
00:55:23,687 --> 00:55:28,127
them, I think they're getting a little more concerned. I don't know if I want to use the

922
00:55:28,127 --> 00:55:33,507
word desperate, but this is Matthew Cratter at Bitcoin University, and he's calling for a soft

923
00:55:33,507 --> 00:55:39,627
fork right now. Today, I want to talk about why we need a soft fork now, and I wanted to put all

924
00:55:39,627 --> 00:55:44,667
this information together in one video so it'd be easy to share. The context for this is we now have

925
00:55:44,667 --> 00:55:50,667
a major crisis on our hands. More and more Bitcoin nodes running Bitcoin Core 30 have been popping up.

926
00:55:51,067 --> 00:55:55,807
Bitcoin Core 30 is a highly contentious node software update. And it's so contentious, in fact,

927
00:55:55,807 --> 00:56:00,567
that the process of trying to force it down Bitcoiners' throats led to 20% of the Bitcoin

928
00:56:00,567 --> 00:56:05,527
network abandoning Bitcoin Core and moving to Bitcoin Noughts. And that's unprecedented

929
00:56:05,527 --> 00:56:10,267
in Bitcoin's history, as we can see here. We're getting a little bit of a pullback in Bitcoin

930
00:56:10,267 --> 00:56:16,627
Notts nodes, but we're still currently at about 18 to 20% of the network. Here's Core30 nodes,

931
00:56:16,947 --> 00:56:22,427
currently at about 11.82% of the network. Bitcoin Notts adoption has been extremely impressive,

932
00:56:22,427 --> 00:56:27,387
but it cannot hide the fact that almost 12% of the Bitcoin network is now actively running

933
00:56:27,387 --> 00:56:33,367
software, namely Bitcoin Core30, that relays large op returns around the network. Large op returns

934
00:56:33,367 --> 00:56:39,547
expose the Bitcoin network to the greatest risks from arbitrary data from... So, okay, we know about

935
00:56:39,547 --> 00:56:42,827
the opportune risk. I think it's interesting that he used the term, it can't hide the fact. That's

936
00:56:42,827 --> 00:56:47,947
an interesting use of the phrasing here. A couple of things that don't make sense to me. And he said

937
00:56:47,947 --> 00:56:52,767
it's kind of a crisis here. Well, first of all, if the rapid adoption of knots was such a strong

938
00:56:52,767 --> 00:56:58,727
signal, then doesn't that make the rapid adoption of core 30 also a strong signal? And then secondly,

939
00:56:58,827 --> 00:57:04,007
and I would say more importantly, if it's such an urgent threat and Bitcoin 30 already is the

940
00:57:04,007 --> 00:57:09,167
largest node version on the network, it has a larger share of the network. Why isn't all this

941
00:57:09,167 --> 00:57:13,707
awful stuff happening right now? Why isn't granny's computer getting taken over with malware from the

942
00:57:13,707 --> 00:57:19,247
blockchain? Why aren't we seeing a lot of CSAM show up? Where's all the spam? The mempools are

943
00:57:19,247 --> 00:57:24,627
absolutely empty. I'm looking at two blocks right now that have 80 transactions in them.

944
00:57:25,027 --> 00:57:32,327
It's one sat per vbyte right now. Where's the spam problem? Where's the malware problem? Where's

945
00:57:32,327 --> 00:57:38,067
the CSAM problem? We don't seem to have a big problem, even when it's nearly free to do so.

946
00:57:38,067 --> 00:57:43,367
broadly though i just i'm still grappling with some of the larger second order effects

947
00:57:43,367 --> 00:57:50,347
that a soft fork like this would involve first of all knots has a tiny contributor base

948
00:57:50,347 --> 00:57:56,767
and that's not a huge issue for me when it's one of multiple node implementation options from

949
00:57:56,767 --> 00:58:03,367
core 30 core 29 ideally other versions of bitcoin node software that i've heard is in the works but

950
00:58:03,367 --> 00:58:08,587
yet to see. Like, that's fine. They can be small. We have thousands of Linux distributions,

951
00:58:08,747 --> 00:58:13,247
and some of them only have a couple of maintainers, but they're one of many implementations.

952
00:58:13,667 --> 00:58:19,187
But when it becomes the largest implementation, or if it were to become the dominant implementation

953
00:58:19,187 --> 00:58:27,247
in a fork, now a tiny team is a big issue. Not just from one person influencing the direction

954
00:58:27,247 --> 00:58:33,967
of Bitcoin knots, but they also become a soft spot for government pressure.

955
00:58:34,747 --> 00:58:40,887
A prominent Bitcoin developer, Luke is a known person, building consensus-based filtering

956
00:58:40,887 --> 00:58:43,827
clearly introduces a degree of regulatory risk.

957
00:58:43,887 --> 00:58:44,487
It's obvious.

958
00:58:45,167 --> 00:58:51,527
They could easily have a slight tweak to the OFAC rules, guidance around existing legal

959
00:58:51,527 --> 00:58:55,907
frameworks that already are there today that would just say adding confirmations is considered

960
00:58:55,907 --> 00:58:58,247
interacting with a prohibited transactions.

961
00:58:58,527 --> 00:59:00,747
And then all they have to do is go knock on Luke's door

962
00:59:00,747 --> 00:59:04,267
and say, hey, these types of transactions are prohibited.

963
00:59:04,727 --> 00:59:06,847
There's only one spot they have to apply pressure.

964
00:59:07,207 --> 00:59:11,587
And additionally, the fork folks are floating the idea

965
00:59:11,587 --> 00:59:15,547
of using Lewis scripts to crawl the blockchain

966
00:59:15,547 --> 00:59:20,287
and detect spam with some sort of arbitrary spam score.

967
00:59:20,487 --> 00:59:22,487
And I'm not sure who sets the spam score.

968
00:59:22,787 --> 00:59:25,287
I'm not sure who updates the spam score database.

969
00:59:25,287 --> 00:59:27,587
I'm not sure who hosts the spam score database.

970
00:59:27,707 --> 00:59:28,327
Maybe it's Luke.

971
00:59:28,647 --> 00:59:31,627
Maybe Luke auto-updates and controls this spam score database.

972
00:59:31,747 --> 00:59:32,327
I don't know.

973
00:59:32,707 --> 00:59:44,127
But if you create Lua scripts that follow a list or a rule base or a database, it's pretty easy for the government to argue you could modify that to exclude other types of transactions.

974
00:59:44,507 --> 00:59:47,067
You're literally building it so they will come.

975
00:59:47,907 --> 01:00:01,956
And on top of all the other implications the stealing of property rights by holding UTXOs up for a year if this fork activates All of it just the second order stuff feels just like ungrabbable to me

976
01:00:02,076 --> 01:00:04,496
And yet there's a fervor for this.

977
01:00:04,696 --> 01:00:09,196
I really feel like if this is a real thing that we want to do, we got to slow down.

978
01:00:09,976 --> 01:00:15,256
These types of changes, they can take a long, like if you're serious about this, this can take years to get right.

979
01:00:15,256 --> 01:00:29,756
And in the meantime, Core 30 is just going to continue to gain adoption. And it seems like the entire case they're making on the fork side gets more and more diminished as Core 30 grows and then 31 comes out.

980
01:00:30,456 --> 01:00:41,256
And they have less and less of a position to argue from if if not fades. I don't know where this goes from here, but again, I'm not so concerned about about.

981
01:00:41,256 --> 01:00:46,736
about, well, I mean, I hate, I hate that I'm kind of, I hate spam and I would, I would prefer to have

982
01:00:46,736 --> 01:00:52,056
a magic wand that just makes Bitcoin a monetary only network, but I'm not a fan of the idea of

983
01:00:52,056 --> 01:00:59,076
Lewis grips crawling the blockchain, not a fan of spam scores. And I'm not a fan of knots becoming

984
01:00:59,076 --> 01:01:04,196
the dominant node. It just, it doesn't, it doesn't have the team it needs. And perhaps it could get

985
01:01:04,196 --> 01:01:09,636
there one day. It absolutely could. And perhaps it will, but it's not there today. It's not ready

986
01:01:09,636 --> 01:01:13,256
for that position. That's, in my opinion, just somebody who's been watching open source for like

987
01:01:13,256 --> 01:01:18,056
24 years and watching how these kinds of projects work. It just doesn't seem like we're there yet.

988
01:01:20,156 --> 01:01:23,636
All right. So I promised I'd talk a little bit about these stimmy checks.

989
01:01:24,356 --> 01:01:32,356
Scott and Trump are perhaps heading towards a conflict because it seems like Scott's tapping

990
01:01:32,356 --> 01:01:38,116
the brakes on a few things and it's frustrating Trump. Number one, Trump wants to take stronger

991
01:01:38,116 --> 01:01:42,996
action against the Fed. Scott's putting the brakes on that. Scott also put the brakes earlier

992
01:01:42,996 --> 01:01:47,576
on the tariffs. And now Trump's out there continuing to say next year, everybody's going to get 2K

993
01:01:47,576 --> 01:01:53,436
stimmy checks. And yet once again, this is just a few hours ago when the Treasury secretary's

994
01:01:53,436 --> 01:01:58,576
asked about it. He kind of says, don't expect it. No, I mean, maybe there's a lot of things we're

995
01:01:58,576 --> 01:02:05,716
going to do for you. Would a $2,000 tariff dividend check going to people be inflationary?

996
01:02:05,716 --> 01:02:29,036
Great question. And I would like to turn this question around to you because he's not going to properly answer it. Spoiler alert. Would it be inflationary? Here's the argument why it would not be. You could argue that it would not be inflationary because it's existing money. The money was collected by the tariffs and then that money is going to move to the people. They're not printing the money and then distributing it to the people.

997
01:02:29,036 --> 01:02:52,716
All right. There's not coming from debt and then being distributed. It's existing money supply that already exists that's being moved, essentially. So is that inflationary? I ask you, because I think this is going to be an interesting divide in where the audience sees and perceives inflation. So boost in with your answer if you do think it's inflationary. I like that Brett asked the question. I wish Scott would have properly answered it.

998
01:02:52,716 --> 01:02:58,876
Would a $2,000 tariff dividend check going to people be inflationary?

999
01:02:59,316 --> 01:03:02,596
Well, there are a lot of things that are going to happen next year.

1000
01:03:02,856 --> 01:03:03,456
Is that one of them?

1001
01:03:03,536 --> 01:03:05,116
And that could be one of them.

1002
01:03:05,116 --> 01:03:15,996
And again, maybe we could persuade Americans to save that because one of the things that's going to happen next year, the Trump accounts,

1003
01:03:15,996 --> 01:03:25,256
Every child who was born from January 1st for the next three years is going to get a government account that goes into the stock market.

1004
01:03:25,436 --> 01:03:31,396
So every American child born for the next three years, starting January 1st, is going to have that.

1005
01:03:31,456 --> 01:03:32,856
They can take it out when they're 18.

1006
01:03:33,296 --> 01:03:35,156
They're going to learn the power of compounding.

1007
01:03:35,676 --> 01:03:40,436
And there's going to be a lot of financial literacy around that.

1008
01:03:40,756 --> 01:03:42,576
I get the idea.

1009
01:03:43,316 --> 01:03:44,376
I mean, it seems like a hope.

1010
01:03:44,376 --> 01:03:48,956
It just seems like that's something parents should be doing and not really the responsibility of the federal government.

1011
01:03:49,456 --> 01:03:51,796
I grant you the parents aren't doing that.

1012
01:03:51,956 --> 01:03:54,256
And financial literacy is a major problem.

1013
01:03:54,956 --> 01:03:57,336
Obviously, anything that improves that is probably worth it.

1014
01:03:57,836 --> 01:04:00,876
It just seems like, I don't know, there's a lot of ways to spend that money.

1015
01:04:01,336 --> 01:04:02,916
That's something maybe parents should be doing.

1016
01:04:03,216 --> 01:04:05,016
But this is what Scott's been focused on.

1017
01:04:05,516 --> 01:04:07,256
And this was his answer last time.

1018
01:04:07,276 --> 01:04:08,816
Well, there's a lot of things we're going to be doing.

1019
01:04:09,176 --> 01:04:10,656
How about Trump accounts?

1020
01:04:10,656 --> 01:04:17,036
Power of compounding and there's going to be a lot of financial literacy around that.

1021
01:04:17,296 --> 01:04:22,476
And I think the reason that we saw kind of the disastrous election in New York is young

1022
01:04:22,476 --> 01:04:43,686
people don feel like they have a stake in the economy So we want to give them a stake in the economy We know Now there might be something to that I don think their solution is what going to do that But I think if you can buy a house you can afford rent you can afford groceries you don own assets and your paycheck constantly getting debased it probably pretty hard to buy into capitalism

1023
01:04:43,886 --> 01:04:54,586
And so if you could give people something that appreciates, that shows them the power of compounding, that shows them something that's worth long-term thinking to change their time preference, it'd make a big difference.

1024
01:04:54,806 --> 01:05:01,306
I don't think it's going to be Trump accounts, but I do feel like there's a market need for Bitcoin in that way.

1025
01:05:02,126 --> 01:05:09,326
There's there's it's not a philosophy, but there's there's a there's a culture that can start around long term hodling.

1026
01:05:09,506 --> 01:05:11,746
That is, I think, a positive one.

1027
01:05:11,886 --> 01:05:14,706
And that would be something that I'd love to see spread around the country.

1028
01:05:24,806 --> 01:05:33,546
From around the country to the world.

1029
01:05:33,906 --> 01:05:35,466
Now, our final clip.

1030
01:05:35,626 --> 01:05:37,746
Yes, it's that time of the week.

1031
01:05:38,266 --> 01:05:40,786
I have to give some props to Natalie Brunel.

1032
01:05:41,566 --> 01:05:42,486
Nobody's perfect.

1033
01:05:42,626 --> 01:05:43,946
I'm not putting her up on a pedestal.

1034
01:05:44,326 --> 01:05:49,546
But I'm pretty consistently impressed with her ability to go on to mainstream television,

1035
01:05:49,706 --> 01:05:53,486
specifically the financial news, when Bitcoin is dipping.

1036
01:05:53,486 --> 01:05:56,026
in the like while it's in the process of dipping.

1037
01:05:56,246 --> 01:06:01,726
And she goes on there and she nails the sales pitch to normies every single time in the face

1038
01:06:01,726 --> 01:06:03,206
of what could be an awkward moment.

1039
01:06:03,206 --> 01:06:08,726
And I say that because I've watched a lot of analysts go on these shows and just fumble

1040
01:06:08,726 --> 01:06:09,526
these moments.

1041
01:06:09,526 --> 01:06:11,966
But Natalie nails it every single time.

1042
01:06:12,426 --> 01:06:12,626
That's right.

1043
01:06:12,686 --> 01:06:17,566
I think that Bitcoin has the superior properties that make for a great form of money, a great

1044
01:06:17,566 --> 01:06:19,886
asset that we can invest in over the long term.

1045
01:06:19,986 --> 01:06:23,186
You know, I know you talk about companies in the S&P 500 all the time.

1046
01:06:23,186 --> 01:06:25,906
The average lifespan is about 20 to 30 years.

1047
01:06:26,046 --> 01:06:27,826
This is the 100-year investment.

1048
01:06:28,286 --> 01:06:34,866
And I think for the average person, which is really my target audience, for the average person, it's been so hard to accumulate capital, to have a seat at the table.

1049
01:06:35,166 --> 01:06:36,686
We have such an incredible wealth divide.

1050
01:06:37,046 --> 01:06:38,426
And Bitcoin allows us to catch up.

1051
01:06:38,686 --> 01:06:39,386
It has for me.

1052
01:06:39,626 --> 01:06:41,266
It has for all these people that I've met.

1053
01:06:41,346 --> 01:06:44,046
It has for Michael Saylor, who found new purpose through Bitcoin.

1054
01:06:44,206 --> 01:06:46,826
And I think it will do so for billions of people around the world.

1055
01:06:46,826 --> 01:06:50,186
You've always been Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin.

1056
01:06:50,626 --> 01:06:55,126
Other digital currencies, digital assets are getting some shine right now.

1057
01:06:55,486 --> 01:06:58,966
They're done, you know, there's the new cases out there for Ethereum.

1058
01:06:59,546 --> 01:07:01,886
You know, you've got a government that's backing back in crypto.

1059
01:07:02,346 --> 01:07:03,426
Are you looking elsewhere?

1060
01:07:03,606 --> 01:07:06,026
Are you still it's all still about for you, Bitcoin?

1061
01:07:06,326 --> 01:07:07,326
I'm all about Bitcoin.

1062
01:07:07,606 --> 01:07:09,506
I see a little bit too much risk elsewhere.

1063
01:07:09,506 --> 01:07:18,006
And I think today the average person doesn't want to be a day trader doing tens of dozens of hours of homework into all of these digital equities.

1064
01:07:18,006 --> 01:07:22,506
I think Bitcoin actually simplifies savings and I think it's here to stay forever.

1065
01:07:22,666 --> 01:07:25,706
So when you have a winner, it sometimes hurts to diversify.

1066
01:07:36,846 --> 01:07:43,646
Let's check in on the state of the network as I wrap up at block height 924,329.

1067
01:07:44,346 --> 01:07:49,266
One Bitcoin priced in U.S. dollars right now is going for $88,960.

1068
01:07:49,586 --> 01:07:51,626
It's been a long time since I've said that.

1069
01:07:51,966 --> 01:07:56,426
That puts our sats per dollar back over the 1,000 sats threshold.

1070
01:07:56,986 --> 01:08:00,046
1,124 sats to one U.S. dollar.

1071
01:08:00,306 --> 01:08:02,686
Ah, price just ticked up to $89,000.

1072
01:08:02,986 --> 01:08:05,706
That does put us down 29%.

1073
01:08:05,706 --> 01:08:07,726
Welcome to correction territory, my friends.

1074
01:08:07,726 --> 01:08:15,726
Our all-time high was $126,180, a long cold 44 days ago on October 6th.

1075
01:08:16,726 --> 01:08:19,726
Now our difficulty changes adjust now to negative 1%.

1076
01:08:20,246 --> 01:08:22,726
Difficulty is now negative 1%.

1077
01:08:23,446 --> 01:08:26,726
Reachable nodes on the network, 23,577.

1078
01:08:28,266 --> 01:08:33,726
Core 30 now with the largest share of the Bitcoin node network at 11.8%.

1079
01:08:34,286 --> 01:08:36,726
Core 28 coming at number 2 at 10.5%.

1080
01:08:37,726 --> 01:08:39,866
Core 29, 8.0.

1081
01:08:41,106 --> 01:08:43,986
Now, NOTS is shared across several implementations,

1082
01:08:44,086 --> 01:08:46,086
so it's right up there in the 10 area, too.

1083
01:08:46,126 --> 01:08:47,406
It's a pretty close second, really.

1084
01:08:48,446 --> 01:08:51,426
But Core 30, nearly a 12%.

1085
01:08:51,426 --> 01:08:53,206
How about that?

1086
01:08:53,266 --> 01:08:54,886
That's been a surprise.

1087
01:08:55,646 --> 01:08:56,326
There we have it.

1088
01:08:57,486 --> 01:08:59,526
Block height 924, 329.

1089
01:08:59,526 --> 01:09:01,635
The network continues to be very strong

1090
01:09:30,515 --> 01:09:34,215
me know. And of course, boost in with what I missed or what else you'd like to see from the show.

1091
01:09:35,235 --> 01:09:40,175
And of course, I want your answer on how you stack during the dip. And if you think the stimulus

1092
01:09:40,175 --> 01:09:45,595
check will be technically inflationary, I'd like to know that as well. Now, as I do, I'm going to

1093
01:09:45,595 --> 01:09:51,935
wrap you up with a value for value track. So if you boost in during the song, 95% of your sats go

1094
01:09:51,935 --> 01:09:55,615
to the artist and it really makes a difference. They love it. Now, this track I'm going to play

1095
01:09:55,615 --> 01:10:00,435
does have some explicit lyrics. So if that is a concern for you, you'll probably want to turn it

1096
01:10:00,435 --> 01:10:01,395
once it starts playing.

1097
01:10:01,655 --> 01:10:02,935
But once it does play,

1098
01:10:03,015 --> 01:10:04,375
send them a boost and tell them thanks.

1099
01:10:04,775 --> 01:10:06,495
And this week, I'm going to leave you

1100
01:10:06,495 --> 01:10:07,815
with a track by Longy,

1101
01:10:08,115 --> 01:10:11,255
and it's called Auto Interwoven Minds.

1102
01:10:11,915 --> 01:10:14,595
Send it once, send it twice.

1103
01:10:14,775 --> 01:10:17,135
What the fuck is the noise?

1104
01:10:17,315 --> 01:10:19,495
Call the police, they wouldn't come.

1105
01:10:19,755 --> 01:10:21,875
Said she does this just for fun

1106
01:10:21,875 --> 01:10:24,515
because it's Thursday and on Thursdays

1107
01:10:24,515 --> 01:10:28,435
I like drinking to the dreams and never come.

1108
01:10:30,435 --> 01:10:35,055
Check your lights, refresh page

1109
01:10:35,055 --> 01:10:37,055
Check your lights, rearrange

1110
01:10:37,055 --> 01:10:39,995
Should I know or should I like

1111
01:10:39,995 --> 01:10:42,315
On toe and toe over much

1112
01:10:42,315 --> 01:10:44,695
Cause it's Thursday and on Thursday

1113
01:10:44,695 --> 01:10:46,995
I like drinking to the dreams

1114
01:10:46,995 --> 01:10:51,995
And never all your mobile phones

1115
01:10:51,995 --> 01:10:57,755
Turn them off, turn them off

1116
01:10:57,755 --> 01:11:02,195
Oh, your TV screens

1117
01:11:02,195 --> 01:11:04,535
Turn them off

1118
01:11:04,535 --> 01:11:08,075
Oh, turn them off

1119
01:11:08,075 --> 01:11:20,815
Sitting here, losing will

1120
01:11:20,815 --> 01:11:23,255
Might just take another pill

1121
01:11:23,255 --> 01:11:25,915
Numb your senses, make you weak

1122
01:11:25,915 --> 01:11:28,215
More about junk but no more about beef

1123
01:11:28,215 --> 01:11:30,575
Cause it's Friday, I mean Thursday

1124
01:11:30,575 --> 01:11:34,895
I like drinking to the dreams that never come

1125
01:11:34,895 --> 01:11:41,415
Check your lights, refresh page

1126
01:11:41,415 --> 01:11:43,835
Check your lights, we arrange

1127
01:11:43,835 --> 01:11:46,355
Should I know, or should I like

1128
01:11:46,355 --> 01:11:48,735
I'm so into open minds

1129
01:11:48,735 --> 01:11:51,055
Cause it's Thursday, I know Thursday

1130
01:11:51,055 --> 01:11:54,915
I like drinking to the dreams that never are

1131
01:11:54,915 --> 01:11:58,395
Your mobile phones

1132
01:11:58,395 --> 01:12:00,735
Turn them off

1133
01:12:00,735 --> 01:12:04,055
Turn them off

1134
01:12:04,055 --> 01:12:08,595
Or your TV screens

1135
01:12:08,595 --> 01:12:10,815
Turn them off

1136
01:12:10,815 --> 01:12:14,015
Oh, turn them off

1137
01:12:14,015 --> 01:12:14,735
Come on.

1138
01:12:23,735 --> 01:12:24,735
Let's go.

1139
01:12:33,735 --> 01:12:39,215
In this life, you get one chance.

1140
01:12:39,215 --> 01:12:44,515
And in this life you lose your mind

1141
01:12:44,515 --> 01:12:49,315
In this life you get one chance

1142
01:12:49,315 --> 01:12:55,635
In this life you're gonna lose your mind

1143
01:13:09,215 --> 01:13:20,335
Oh, your robot phones

1144
01:13:20,335 --> 01:13:25,815
Turn them off, turn them off

1145
01:13:25,815 --> 01:13:30,335
Oh, your TV screens

1146
01:13:30,335 --> 01:13:35,255
Turn them off, oh, turn them off

1147
01:13:39,215 --> 01:14:09,195
Thank you.