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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 96.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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The system is under stress.

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Everywhere you look, the legacy system looks fragile, expensive, political, and definitely narrative-driven.

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No doubt about it, more than ever, they're trying to keep a breaking system propped up with more debt, spin, and promises.

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And Bitcoin just looks better than ever.

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Just sitting there, clean alternative, TikTok, next block.

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But instead of just telling you all of this, I'm going to try to make the case today.

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Well, there's a lot of tailwinds, as they like to say right now.

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And we'll start with what seems to be the big one.

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And that would be the Iran War, which may be developing into a bit of an energy war.

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So before we get into the Bitcoin, we need to talk about the Iran, as they like to say, the Iran.

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What, would you run a marathon?

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Because this war is really going to be very, very, it already is.

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I'll get you the numbers here in just a moment.

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But it's going to be very expensive and it could make energy even more expensive, which, of course, they're going to have to, you know, borrow to cover.

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We'll get into all of it.

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I have the numbers for you, but we start with today's news.

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It appears that we've now entered a new phase of the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran,

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an operation, a campaign that's almost three weeks old,

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with an attack claimed so far by Israel on a major gas field in Iran.

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This has incensed the Iranians, whose official media are now publishing lists

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of energy sites in neighboring Gulf Arab countries

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in what appears to be a clear telegraphing of a threat to strike those in retaliation.

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This has had the makings of an energy war for several days now with Iranian attacks

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on energy facilities in some of its neighboring Gulf Arab countries.

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It appears now that this is officially a back and forth energy war

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and the Iranians are prepared to escalate further.

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Of course, it's not just the infrastructure itself, but it's also shipping.

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And I'm starting with this because this obviously has the biggest day-to-day impact on just Western society in general and possibly long-term inflation.

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How long? I'm going to ask you to pull out your geopolitical crystal ball.

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How long can we expect these higher prices?

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You should bet on Kalshi, right?

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I'm going to take what you say and go straight to my phone.

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So this is really all about the Strait of Hormuz, right?

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That very important choke point that has been essentially blocked.

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It doesn't mean that oil is not getting there, right?

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Saudi Arabia is able to send it via pipeline, the UAE as well, but not as much as traditionally goes through the strait.

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And so every oil analyst that I have talked to says you are not going to see oil come down and therefore gas and diesel until it is safe or shipping companies feel like it is safe to pass through that.

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You know, it does sometimes come down to feels.

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But we have perhaps, depending on the length of this, a bit of a awful brew stew kind of thing here.

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So you have energy prices. Obviously, that makes everything more expensive, including the military operation. But on March 11th, the Pentagon briefed Congress and said the first six days of the war so far have cost $11.3 billion. This is described primarily as munitions replacement costs. It understates the total, officials noted, because munitions alone in the first two days were $5.6 billion.

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man so if you give the daily rate some of the numbers they gave us get ready for this the total

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cost as of today march 18th as i record for this war so far is estimated to be between 25 and 30

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billion dollars now longer term projections are murky it really depends on the length but it could

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range anywhere easily between 40 and 95 billion dollars not including broader economic impacts

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And amongst this, the Department of Defense is expected to ask Congress for an additional $50 billion in funding to be approved immediately.

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That's on top of their record-breaking $925 billion year 2026 defense budget.

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They're like, well, you want war? We didn't have this war in our budget, so we need another – even though they supposedly have been planning this for years, they didn't have this in the budget.

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So they need another 50 bill on top of the 925, which is already historically high.

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What's wild about this is President Trump has proposed a record breaking one point five trillion dollar military budget for next year.

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Yeah, you heard me right. One point five trillion dollar budget.

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He's called it his dream military. So let's work with this for him for just a moment.

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Currently, today, the U.S. is spending about a dollar forty eight for every one dollar it takes in.

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If you set aside the tariff revenue, which so far has been $144 billion,

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so it's kind of a drop in the bucket, but it's there.

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But we're setting it aside with all the Supreme Court stuff going on.

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Without tariff revenue, the U.S. is currently on pace to collect roughly $4.8 trillion

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to $5 trillion from traditional taxes.

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That's really good.

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So best case scenario in 2026, they're going to make about $5 trillion from taxes.

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But projected spending, including the war and domestic programs, is estimated to be $7.4 trillion.

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So they're going to at best take in five.

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And with current budget spending, they're going to spend $7.4.

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Now, if the military gets their $50 billion bump for the war in Iran, that puts the total yearly budget for the military at $975 billion.

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dollars. But friends, that ain't it. Because there's hidden military spending in the one big

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beautiful bill passed last year. It front loads this year an additional $152 billion of military

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spending. So the base budget plus the Iran war puts their budget for this year at $975 billion.

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The U.S. defense budget for 2026, I repeat, will be $975 billion.

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Are you with me so far?

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So we're almost at a trillion dollars just this year.

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And Trump's asking for $1.5 trillion for next year.

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That's a ludicrous amount of money.

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And the actual amount of money being spent by the Department of War, once you factor it all in,

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is basically at a trillion dollars right now.

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And if the Congress critters just accept the current spending

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and just add a little bit,

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you could see them coming to some sort of compromise in 2027

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of a military budget of $1.2 trillion.

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It's not that unreasonable.

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I mean, it is.

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But if they're spending a trillion dollars this year

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and Trump's asking for $1.5,

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what do you suppose the chances are they land somewhere in the middle?

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Right?

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some kind of compromise, like a $1.2 trillion compromise.

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Could be more, could be less.

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Probably more.

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If they officially pass that budget, around a $1.2 trillion budget,

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I cannot stress to you the change just that alone would make

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in the fiscal situation in the United States.

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We would go from severe strain to a unbelievably unprecedented

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historical deficit.

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I cannot. You would go in just that one move alone. The annual deficit would grow by nearly nine percent overnight.

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Instead of borrowing approximately six point five billion per day to keep the government running, the U.S. government would need to borrow around seven point four, seven point five billion dollars every single day.

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if they pass even less than what Trump's asking for,

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they will have to borrow $7.5 billion every single day

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to keep the lights on and the military funded.

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Well, well, I had to get out of my seat for that.

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I mean, I literally had to get out of my seat for that.

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We're talking about trillions and billions here.

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And what happens is they just get further and deeper

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into the interest trap.

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Because as the debt grows, you know this,

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if you have a credit card, so do your interest payments.

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If the interest rates remain elevated to combat inflation, which could be caused by an energy war, well, then the U.S. could soon be spending more on interest payments than the military itself.

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Yes, even at the $1.2 trillion level, if they bump it for 2027 to $1.2 trillion, we'll still end up spending more on interest payments alone, not going to principal for our debt.

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There is really no choice between rapidly devaluating the dollar, inflation, or some sort of aggressive austerity measures that would get everybody out of office.

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They're just not going to do it.

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So if they even throw a few more billion at the military, we're going to have to borrow $3 trillion a year just to keep the lights on.

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And without the tariff revenue, the U.S. will add to the national debt at a rate of roughly $8.2 billion per day.

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Now, if you add the tariff revenue and there's a little bit better, like a couple billion, you know, like it goes down to like seven or six.

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But without the tariff revenue, if they don't get that, it's 8.2 billion per day if they up the military budget at all anymore.

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The only way to fund this dream military is to dream up the money.

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It's baked in.

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It's absolutely nobody's talking about this, but it is absolutely outrageous.

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There is no stopping this train.

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The lever you have pulled breaks.

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He's not in service.

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Please make a note of it.

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The other thing that everybody's crying Black Swan about,

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which I think is not nearly as bad as what I just talked about, but it is something to mention,

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is this private credit situation. I brought this up, you know, mid, late summer, fall last year.

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Private credit is building into a black swan. We're not there yet, but the Clear Value Tax

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YouTube channel gave a great setup for this topic. And I just want to reintroduce us to this because

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it is something we need to keep an eye on and it will in the short run have an impact on Bitcoin.

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I want you to be aware that there are problems building in the private credit markets.

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And this is just another warning sign of how weak our economic situation really is.

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I want to shed some light on the situation.

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Before we get into the details, I want to explain to you what private credit is.

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Traditionally, when companies needed to borrow money, they went to the banks,

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and banks would provide loans to businesses.

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But after the financial crisis in 2008, regulators placed stricter rules on the banks,

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and banks were required to hold more capital, and they became more cautious about lending.

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Consequently, instead of banks making the loans, investment funds started to do it.

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So some examples are Blackstone, Apollo Global Management, Ares Management, Blue Owl Capital, KKR, BlackRock, etc.

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So these funds raise money from investors, and then they lend that money directly to the companies.

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So that's what's called private credits.

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It's an interesting example of the market finds a way.

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You know, the regulators, they reacted after the 2008 crash and they created these new rules.

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And it did stop some of this crazy lending.

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But, you know, like water, it finds a way.

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And this market has grown incredibly fast, one of the fastest growing parts of the financial system.

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It's now a $3 trillion market, which includes direct lending to companies, asset-backed lending,

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real estate credit, infrastructure debts, and distressed credit funds.

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Now, the reason why investors have been attracted to private credit is straightforward, simple.

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It's because these loans typically offer higher yields than traditional bonds.

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So investors might earn 8%, 10%, or sometimes even higher returns.

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And during the years when interest rates were extremely low, they looked very attractive.

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But the environment has changed dramatically.

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Interest rates are now much higher than they were just a few years ago.

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And that's where some of the stress in the system is beginning to appear.

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Before he goes on, this might be why you hear Trump so often banging for JPOW to lower the rates, even though he keeps going on about how great the economy is, because the two things sort of seem at conflict.

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It would be reasonable to presume that the Trump White House is concerned about the private credit market, but they don't want to come out and say they're concerned about the private credit market because it will create a cascade effect, obviously.

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So they just say we need to get the rates down.

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We need to get the rates down.

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We should have the lowest rates.

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They're now much higher than they were just a few years ago.

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And that's where some of the stress in the system is beginning to appear.

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And let me explain why.

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So the first thing I want to point out is that most private credit loans are floating rate loans This means that the interest rate paid by the borrower is going to go up when the interest rate rises

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So during the years when the interest rates were near zero, this wasn't a big problem.

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But over the past few years, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively to fight inflation.

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And as a result, borrowing costs for many companies have surged.

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So some companies that were paying maybe 4% or 5% interest in their debts are now paying 10% or even more.

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And that's a huge increase in their interest expense.

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And for companies that already have a lot of debts, that, I mean, as you can imagine, that can become a very serious problem.

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And several indicators suggest that financial stress among borrowers is increasing.

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So here's something that I want to point out.

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credit rating agencies have been reporting more downgrades than upgrades for companies that rely

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on private credits. In other words, more companies are being viewed as financially weaker, and we're

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also starting to see higher delinquency and default rates among borrowers. So right now, estimates

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suggest that private credit default rates are around 5 to 6%, which is somewhat higher than

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historical averages. However, I just want you to know that these levels are still well below what

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you typically see during a major financial crisis. And that's why you'll hear the term,

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it's currently containable. It's a problem, but it's currently containable. So great information

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there. I have a link to the full YouTube video. He has visuals and the video continues on with

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more information. But I think that's enough background that now I want you to listen to

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Chris Wayland. You got to let him cook because he's a bit of a financial walk and wonk and it

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And it doesn't start out super strong, but the information and insights he gives you, well, it lets us kind of have a better understanding of why this could be a serious problem.

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Hold down the sell off in AI and private equity and private credit is hurting the banks.

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You saw Blue Owl, which is another one.

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Yes.

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And what's interesting is all of these companies, Daniela, something will break here as kind of a scoop, have access to insurance companies.

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And guess what they've been doing?

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They've been putting all this mortgage-related crapola inside the insurance companies.

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And guess what?

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They turn around and borrow from the federal home loan banks because the insurance companies are allowed to be members.

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So there's another story that we're going to be unraveling here in the next few months of how Wall Street has done another AIG.

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They put alpha, they put risk inside of a sector which really isn't supposed to have risk.

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Uh-oh.

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where have we heard this before? 2008 is calling. So remember this clip because I have a sense

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this is probably going to be a bigger topic later. They put alpha, they put risk inside of a sector

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which really isn't supposed to have risk. And these insurance companies provide annuities to

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retirees. So this is going to be quite a mess when it really unfolds. Are they using the insurance

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companies as a loophole and they're all into it? Oh, yeah, absolutely. They studied Warren Buffett.

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Warren was the first to buy an insurer and use that as his balance sheet. And then Apollo did

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this when they acquired a company called Athene. Athene was public for a while and then they brought

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it in-house. They actually merged their manager with the insurance company and they provide

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annuities to retirees, much of which they domicile offshore. Oh, what a tidy little system they have.

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Oh, it's so gross.

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So, you know, at its current levels, it's not a concern.

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But if it begins to grow, it could impact the insurance market, the retirement market.

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It could be huge.

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And they're doing that thing where they take a risky thing and they bundle it into a safe thing, essentially making the safe thing risky, which is what happened in 2008.

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Now, like I say, though, I actually think the economic second order effects from the global conflict is more of a current and immediate issue than probably the private credit situation.

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Could be wrong, but that's my general sense.

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And I think Lynn Alden agrees with me.

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She was on Fox Business yesterday, and her concern is more around those second order effects than it is private credit like myself.

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And she probably will put it in better words than I could.

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I wanted to go through this with you, right?

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Get your thoughts on these particular big tail risks.

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We can lump the geopolitical conflict and inflation together.

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How high do you rank these right now?

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I think at the current time, the inflation geopolitical one is the biggest one.

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And not that it's necessarily inflation, but it replaces consumer spending.

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Because we don't have a situation of more money chasing the amount of goods, but we

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have energy price increases.

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If they stay prolonged, the consumer has, they're spending more there, they're spending

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less elsewhere.

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and we already have some stall speed aspect to the economy.

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And so I think that's top of mind currently, number one.

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Probably the one that I fade the most compared to consensus

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is the private credit contagion.

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Yeah, yeah.

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And I think we may have another chart to share with this topic.

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You know, this format doesn't really do Lynn justice

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because they're staring at a large screen

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and it kind of distracts them.

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They're not looking at each other.

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They're not looking at the camera.

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Lynn did great, but, you know, Charles sets the pace here.

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And they're just staring at a chart.

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And the chart just shows you what do you consider the biggest tail risk to the market.

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Of course, that would just be risk.

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And global political conflict is number one, followed by inflation, followed by private

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credit at number three.

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Number four is the AI bubble, which we'll come back to in a moment.

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Private credit, 16%.

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You don't think there's much to do about nothing, but we don't really grasp the size of this

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space.

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Yeah, I would separate two things.

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I think private credit can very much be an issue for private credit investors.

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The bigger question, of course, is can it cascade in the banking system and cause issues?

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Right now, I mean, the numbers are very containable.

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The banks have something like $1.9 trillion in total loans outstanding to non-deposit financial institutions.

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A section of that is private credit.

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That's a very big number, but that's roughly 7% of bank assets.

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So even if they were to have some losses on their books from that, they have multiple safeguards.

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I don't view it as a contagion risk outside of, obviously, the key areas where people are investing.

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The next part of their conversation centers around this ironic aspect.

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It's just so funny about the AI trade.

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And we're going to get to that because these geniuses who would confidently mock you for your Bitcoin's lack of revenue stream.

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It's not a value trade.

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They would not give that a moment's thought, and they would say it like they're absolutely confident.

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They are constantly jerked around by counterparty risk, and they don't get it.

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They're emotionally jumping in and out of the AI trade based on social media hype.

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And NVIDIA's CEO tried to pump some air back into the bubble and settle everybody down and say, no, there's more money to be made here.

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When he went on stage during his keynote and said that NVIDIA is on track to make a trillion dollars.

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I'm here to tell you that right now where I stand, a few short months after GTCDC, one year after last GTC, right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least $1 trillion.

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dollars. When I was a kid, I swear I heard the word trillion once. Now it's like we've said it

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18 times in this episode. So NVIDIA is trying to tell the market, hey, there's a lot of money to be

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made here. What's wild about this is this is a massive increase from what they said they'd be

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making just back in October. Now, does it make any sense? And that's what I'm going to spend the

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rest of the time talking about. In fact, we are going to be short. I am certain computing demand

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will be much higher than that. And there's a reason for that. So the first thing is,

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we did a lot of work in the last year. Of course, as you know, 2025 was NVIDIA's year of inference.

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We wanted to make sure that not only were we good at training and post-training,

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that we were incredibly good at every single phase of AI

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so that the investments that were made,

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investments made in our infrastructure,

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could scale out for as long as they would like to use it.

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And the useful life of NVIDIA's infrastructure would be long,

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and therefore the cost would be incredibly low.

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The longer you could use it, the lower the cost.

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There's no question in my mind.

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NVIDIA systems are the lowest cost infrastructure

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you could get for AI infrastructure in the world.

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And so the first part was last year was all about AI for inference,

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and it drove this inflection point.

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Simultaneously, we were very pleased last year

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that Anthropic has come to NVIDIA,

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that MSL, Meta SL has chosen NVIDIA.

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And meanwhile, meanwhile, and as a collection, as a group,

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This represents one third of the world's AI compute, open source models.

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Open source models have reached near the frontier, and it is literally everywhere.

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So he was hoping this would make the market excited and start pumping again.

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But there is this duality of problems they seem to find themselves in over there, these genius traders.

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And Lynn explains it.

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All right, the AI bubble, it's interesting.

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of February, it was really like, looks like double where it is now. All of a sudden, the AI bubble

292
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pulling back. Obviously, we know valuations have come in a little bit. I mean, yesterday, maybe even

293
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today, all the MAG-7 names were negative for the year. Yeah, it's almost like with AI, investors

294
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can't win because they're worried about the bubble, but then they're also worried about it being so

295
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effective that it disrupts all the software stocks and everything. Right. And so I think that, you

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know, between the two, there's risk, obviously, but there's opportunity. I've been generally more

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bullish than average on the software companies, for example. I don't think they'll be as disrupted

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as quickly as some of the bears think. And I don't think, again, that the numbers are large enough

299
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to be a major concern around bubbles. I do think that the RAM pricing is going to remain elevated

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for quite a while. I do think that while those stocks have gone up quickly, it's already kind

301
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of priced that in. I don't view that as a bubble. Well, let me ask then, because this is a bubble

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of people who are really worried about the financing, the incestuous financing that's going

303
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on the numbers, return on investment, how can you get back $600, $700 billion. Just yesterday,

304
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we learned that just two chips alone, or chip systems, are going to be a trillion dollars.

305
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So that seems like it would maybe fan even more AI bubble anxiety, at least with respect to where

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does the money come from? How do you get a return on this? Yeah, these things tend to go on longer

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than people think. I think that primarily, obviously, the chip makers are going to be big

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returners. I'm not very bullish on the middle stack. Those that are making AI available,

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I think they're going to continue to be loss leaders. And then I think actually one of the

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biggest beneficiaries will be the end users. So whether it's individuals, but also various

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companies that are going to be able to cut expenses pretty dramatically. So unlike the 2010s,

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where most of the social media stocks, all those network effects that concentrated trillions of

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market cap into the MAG7 and other big mega caps, I think this is actually, apart from a couple of

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really big chip makers, it's going to be more diffused out in the economy, all the productivity.

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What about dollar debasement? Are you surprised it's only 1%?

316
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I think so. I mean, I think 1%, by the way, isn't 1% debasement. It's 1% of the people

317
00:25:38,786 --> 00:25:43,707
polled said that was one of their top concerns, their top concern. But, you know, when you have

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a war in Iran, you have potential inflation impacts, you have a private credit, credit

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black swan building, you have an AI bubble that seems to be scaring people one way or the other

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constantly, it makes sense that dollar debasement isn't their number one concern at this exact

321
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moment, especially when they keep being told inflation is only 2.2 percent.

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Right now, obviously, when you have a flight to safety, they tend to be into the dollar.

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And then even when it's not a choice, just because there's so much dollar-dominated debt

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out in the world, cross-border lending. And so when cash flows dry up, either because of memory

325
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or either because of energy or elsewhere, there's all this scramble to get dollars to service

326
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existing debts. That's one of the things I always love about Lynn's perspective is she brings in the

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systemic ways that these events feed or risk the dollar. And sometimes it can actually

328
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help the dollar in a way you might not expect.

329
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Well, if you can't get clarity through Congress, maybe you can force it?

330
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The SEC is very carefully trying to bring clarity to the market.

331
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And I just want you to pay attention to the language that is being used here, both in the links I have in the show notes, but also in this interview.

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So the SEC chair, Paul Atkins, has announced this week that the digital commodities, digital collectibles and digital tools, those types of technologies and stable coins will not be considered securities by the SEC.

333
00:27:19,987 --> 00:27:23,566
But what I think is more interesting is the way they talk about it.

334
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Take a listen to his interview on CNBC.

335
00:27:25,747 --> 00:27:42,593
The SEC clarifying its position on crypto assets interpreting digital commodities digital collectibles digital tools and stable coins not to be securities Did you catch it He does it right away and they going to do it multiple times But they being very intentional I don know if you caught it

336
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because it took me once.

337
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I'll play it one more time.

338
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The SEC clarifying its position on crypto assets.

339
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Did you get it that time?

340
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The SEC is clarifying.

341
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In fact, they use the word clarity

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and making it clear

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multiple times in the announcements

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and in the news coverage.

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It's essentially them saying,

346
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look, you're not getting it from Congress, but the SEC and the CFTC, we're working together

347
00:28:05,913 --> 00:28:11,513
to basically give you legal clarity. The SEC clarifying its position on crypto assets,

348
00:28:11,693 --> 00:28:15,593
interpreting digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools and stable coins,

349
00:28:16,033 --> 00:28:21,393
not to be securities. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins joins us live from Washington this morning.

350
00:28:22,393 --> 00:28:27,733
This is a pivot of sorts. Help us understand, and we'll probably get into the weeds of it all

351
00:28:27,733 --> 00:28:30,413
in terms of just the mechanism for all of this,

352
00:28:30,733 --> 00:28:33,073
but how you landed on this decision and what it means.

353
00:28:33,873 --> 00:28:34,513
Well, thank you, Andrew.

354
00:28:34,593 --> 00:28:35,813
It's great to see you again.

355
00:28:35,893 --> 00:28:39,313
And this follows up on some of our prior conversations

356
00:28:39,313 --> 00:28:41,553
about this and other topics

357
00:28:41,553 --> 00:28:44,173
when you've been gracious enough to have me on your show.

358
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So thank you very much.

359
00:28:45,013 --> 00:28:48,333
But first of all, yes, yesterday was a real break

360
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with the past, a formal break.

361
00:28:50,513 --> 00:28:52,753
The commission came out for the first time

362
00:28:52,753 --> 00:28:55,653
with an interpretative release

363
00:28:55,653 --> 00:29:03,413
that really sets a line between what are commodities in the digital asset space and what are securities.

364
00:29:04,013 --> 00:29:11,813
And the significance also about this particular release that we did is that the CFTC participated with us in it.

365
00:29:11,813 --> 00:29:18,253
And so they had some guidance that's included in that release along with our interpretation.

366
00:29:18,473 --> 00:29:22,493
So basically, as you said, and that tripped off your tongue very well, so it's very good,

367
00:29:22,493 --> 00:29:38,193
We are outlining four types of assets that are not securities, and those are digital commodities, digital tools, digital collectibles, and stable coins, and stable coins per the Genius Act that was enacted last year.

368
00:29:38,813 --> 00:29:47,013
Now, they continue to work the word clarity and making it clear in there, but I thought I would just skip all that and tell you how this impacts Bitcoin because who cares about the other things?

369
00:29:47,013 --> 00:30:01,673
And it actually is pretty positive. The biggest one is for miners. Proof of work mining. There was some debate if the rewards would be considered a security. And that has been, quote unquote, clarified that they are not a security.

370
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Miners, solo, or in pools contribute their own computational resources to validate transactions and secure the network.

371
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Rewards are issued automatically by the protocol's code as payment for those services, not from reliance on anyone else's essential marginal efforts under Howey.

372
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Pool operators perform only administrative or administrative tasks.

373
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No registration will be required.

374
00:30:24,793 --> 00:30:25,353
That's huge.

375
00:30:25,433 --> 00:30:26,533
They will not have to register.

376
00:30:26,533 --> 00:30:37,333
And on that same day, when the SEC made this clarification, the CFTC, the Commodities Futures and Trading Commission, made their own clarification.

377
00:30:38,013 --> 00:30:40,673
And this one is actually really big.

378
00:30:41,253 --> 00:30:48,633
They issued a no-action letter to the phantom wallet developers, along with a press release, which I talked last week about how those work.

379
00:30:48,793 --> 00:30:54,433
And they posted the announcement on their website, as well as a PDF of the letter itself.

380
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Links in the show notes.

381
00:30:55,253 --> 00:31:08,933
And the letter states that the CFTC will not pursue enforcements against self-custodial wallet developers who connect users to regulated trading venues as long as they don't custody user funds.

382
00:31:08,933 --> 00:31:15,673
So if the wallet isn't hosting your funds, they will not have to register with the CFTC or the SEC.

383
00:31:16,193 --> 00:31:28,933
And the community and the media is taking this as a signal, also because of the way they put this on blast, that self-custodial wallet software providers generally will not have to register as brokers, which was one of the concerns that I believe kicked off AlbiHub.

384
00:31:29,633 --> 00:31:30,433
I could be wrong there.

385
00:31:31,073 --> 00:31:33,093
But Albi was originally a hosted service.

386
00:31:33,313 --> 00:31:38,093
And they may be now positioned very well for this new clarification, as it were.

387
00:31:38,093 --> 00:31:39,853
and that's pretty interesting.

388
00:31:40,193 --> 00:31:42,433
The rest of the stuff is more about NFTs

389
00:31:42,433 --> 00:31:44,213
and stable coins and stuff like that,

390
00:31:44,753 --> 00:31:46,033
some of which I think is kind of BS

391
00:31:46,033 --> 00:31:48,053
and I don't agree with, but whatever.

392
00:31:48,233 --> 00:31:50,393
I think what matters is Bitcoin miners

393
00:31:50,393 --> 00:31:52,473
came out exactly where they needed to

394
00:31:52,473 --> 00:31:54,613
and now we have clarification

395
00:31:54,613 --> 00:31:56,953
for developers of wallets

396
00:31:56,953 --> 00:31:58,413
where the developer themselves

397
00:31:58,413 --> 00:32:00,133
is not custodying your funds.

398
00:32:00,273 --> 00:32:02,293
If they create like a free software wallet

399
00:32:02,293 --> 00:32:04,093
where you can self-custody your funds,

400
00:32:04,333 --> 00:32:05,693
totally fine, totally legal,

401
00:32:05,693 --> 00:32:12,833
which is actually going to encourage more self-custody, which I think ultimately is going to be a good thing.

402
00:32:23,153 --> 00:32:27,133
All right, enough with all of that. Stuff's all kind of heavy. Let's lighten the mood for a moment.

403
00:32:27,233 --> 00:32:33,553
Let's have some fun. I got to play what is maybe the worst take on Bitcoin I've ever heard,

404
00:32:33,553 --> 00:32:35,953
and I've certainly ever played on this show.

405
00:32:36,473 --> 00:32:40,273
And I just thought this would be a lot of fun for those of us that, you know,

406
00:32:40,393 --> 00:32:41,933
maybe are slightly informed on the topic.

407
00:32:42,453 --> 00:32:44,713
Bitcoin is going to die. I don't mess with it.

408
00:32:44,913 --> 00:32:48,073
This is Terrence Howard, and he's on the PBD podcast,

409
00:32:48,433 --> 00:32:54,413
where despite having Michael Saylor and many others educate PBD over and over again about Bitcoin,

410
00:32:54,793 --> 00:32:57,033
he still doesn't get it. I believe he's launched an altcoin.

411
00:32:57,553 --> 00:33:02,073
And he continues to have other people on that just spread absolute propaganda

412
00:33:02,073 --> 00:33:03,673
and nonsense about Bitcoin.

413
00:33:03,813 --> 00:33:04,433
So let's start over.

414
00:33:04,713 --> 00:33:06,933
Here's Terrence, and Bitcoin's going to die.

415
00:33:07,193 --> 00:33:08,353
Bitcoin is going to die.

416
00:33:08,453 --> 00:33:09,513
I don't mess with it.

417
00:33:09,593 --> 00:33:10,493
You think Bitcoin's going to die?

418
00:33:10,493 --> 00:33:10,673
Oh.

419
00:33:11,033 --> 00:33:12,473
You're touching nothing with crypto.

420
00:33:12,593 --> 00:33:13,553
I don't touch it.

421
00:33:13,713 --> 00:33:14,673
Tell me why you think it's going to die.

422
00:33:14,673 --> 00:33:17,573
Well, I just got a call from somebody a couple days ago

423
00:33:17,573 --> 00:33:19,733
and said, hey, if you got $25 million,

424
00:33:19,993 --> 00:33:21,713
you can make $75,000.

425
00:33:21,833 --> 00:33:23,513
I just want to put it inside of an account

426
00:33:23,513 --> 00:33:24,973
to do some stuff.

427
00:33:25,013 --> 00:33:26,053
And this is a friend of mine.

428
00:33:26,053 --> 00:33:29,633
And I was like, do you realize that Bitcoin

429
00:33:29,633 --> 00:33:30,993
is still based on fiat?

430
00:33:30,993 --> 00:33:47,453
And because the dollar is decreasing in its value, because the uncertainty of war around, nobody wants their money in something that can be wiped out with a push of a button somewhere.

431
00:33:47,813 --> 00:33:53,293
I've just stayed free and clear of it because it's been dropping a great deal.

432
00:33:54,133 --> 00:33:54,913
You know, bless his heart.

433
00:33:54,993 --> 00:33:56,333
He's clearly struggling to understand.

434
00:33:56,493 --> 00:33:57,793
But he did get one thing right.

435
00:33:57,793 --> 00:34:01,073
Nobody wants their money in something that can be wiped out with a push of a button.

436
00:34:01,593 --> 00:34:09,853
Where I think he gets tripped up is he sees the fiat price of Bitcoin going down and conflates that with Bitcoin having problems and going down.

437
00:34:10,413 --> 00:34:13,173
He doesn't realize the protocol doesn't rely on any fiat supply.

438
00:34:13,373 --> 00:34:14,313
That's the great thing.

439
00:34:15,073 --> 00:34:16,893
Central banks control the fiat supply.

440
00:34:17,193 --> 00:34:18,873
Bitcoin is capped at 21 million.

441
00:34:19,093 --> 00:34:24,233
It's enforced by open source code, not any particular bureaucrats or bankers.

442
00:34:24,233 --> 00:34:27,773
the dollar is just the most liquid quoting currency right now.

443
00:34:27,853 --> 00:34:28,433
It's the most common.

444
00:34:28,573 --> 00:34:29,493
But, you know, if you live in Canada,

445
00:34:29,493 --> 00:34:32,793
you're often looking at Bitcoin to CAD and so on.

446
00:34:33,553 --> 00:34:36,293
It's just the same way with gold and stocks and even real estate.

447
00:34:36,393 --> 00:34:38,613
Often just the market prices them in USD

448
00:34:38,613 --> 00:34:41,113
doesn't mean that gold is based on fiat.

449
00:34:41,413 --> 00:34:43,833
It doesn't mean real estate is based on fiat.

450
00:34:44,313 --> 00:34:47,453
This poor guy, you know, he wants to understand,

451
00:34:47,453 --> 00:34:49,093
but he just, I don't know.

452
00:34:49,333 --> 00:34:50,913
It's like an LLM that hallucinates.

453
00:34:51,613 --> 00:34:54,073
And in a weird way, he actually inverts reality.

454
00:34:54,233 --> 00:35:00,733
But the dollar's problems are why hard assets like Bitcoin gain traction and not why they fail.

455
00:35:01,913 --> 00:35:07,313
So I have to ask you, Boost, and what is your worst Bitcoin take that you've ever heard?

456
00:35:07,813 --> 00:35:09,913
You can just give me a summary of it.

457
00:35:09,953 --> 00:35:12,413
You can send me a link or just capture it for me.

458
00:35:12,873 --> 00:35:15,613
What is the worst Bitcoin take and from who?

459
00:35:15,733 --> 00:35:17,193
I think we could have some fun with this.

460
00:35:17,513 --> 00:35:22,433
Not like mean, but just, you know, kind of I think it's nice to kind of have a good laugh with your buddies.

461
00:35:22,433 --> 00:35:24,753
You know, I notice this too sometimes at Linux events.

462
00:35:24,813 --> 00:35:26,833
You're not poking fun at Windows users or Mac users.

463
00:35:26,833 --> 00:35:29,273
You're just hanging out with people that they're in the know.

464
00:35:29,553 --> 00:35:31,273
You know, they really are in the know.

465
00:35:31,613 --> 00:35:37,413
So, Boostin, tell me the worst Bitcoin take you've ever come across, and we'll have some fun in the next episode.

466
00:35:52,433 --> 00:36:04,573
I ask you, what other show do you know that gives you 36 minutes of pure Bitcoin signal with no distractions, no interruption?

467
00:36:04,973 --> 00:36:06,833
Support the show by doing what you do.

468
00:36:06,893 --> 00:36:09,573
When you buy sats on River, use the link in my notes.

469
00:36:09,573 --> 00:36:14,693
If you want to use the Bitcoin well and amazing automatic self-custody platform, boom, link in the notes.

470
00:36:15,073 --> 00:36:21,233
The Bitcoin Company, when it's time to take your sats and put them in a gift card over lightning in seconds, Bitcoin Company, link in the notes.

471
00:36:21,233 --> 00:36:23,293
You want to stack sats while you pay your bills?

472
00:36:23,533 --> 00:36:24,153
Fold card.

473
00:36:24,333 --> 00:36:25,013
Link in the notes.

474
00:36:25,433 --> 00:36:27,893
If you want to get access to your Bitcoin value without selling it,

475
00:36:27,913 --> 00:36:30,333
with some protection on the downside, salt lending.

476
00:36:31,193 --> 00:36:31,973
You guessed it.

477
00:36:32,193 --> 00:36:32,833
Link in the notes.

478
00:36:33,313 --> 00:36:33,773
Yeah, that's right.

479
00:36:33,813 --> 00:36:36,353
You can support the show just by doing what you do.

480
00:36:36,713 --> 00:36:39,773
And of course, by becoming a member either on Fountain or at Jupiter.Party

481
00:36:39,773 --> 00:36:41,493
or sending the show a boost.

482
00:36:51,233 --> 00:37:00,673
And now, as the French say, it is time for le boost.

483
00:37:02,713 --> 00:37:05,593
Well, we start off with a bit of a sad note.

484
00:37:05,713 --> 00:37:08,093
We have no baller booster this week.

485
00:37:11,073 --> 00:37:11,893
It's all right.

486
00:37:11,953 --> 00:37:12,933
That happens sometimes.

487
00:37:13,073 --> 00:37:13,913
That happens sometimes.

488
00:37:14,173 --> 00:37:20,033
But Gene Bean comes in chronologically with a row of McDucks, 4,444 sats.

489
00:37:20,033 --> 00:37:22,373
Things are looking up for old McDuck.

490
00:37:22,573 --> 00:37:25,013
In your scale recap, you mentioned a business that took Bitcoin.

491
00:37:25,173 --> 00:37:26,333
Can you give it a shout out?

492
00:37:26,373 --> 00:37:29,053
I'm curious because I'd like to support them the next time I go to attend.

493
00:37:29,853 --> 00:37:36,233
I think the most I can say is it's a real estate company, but they're not publicly doing it yet.

494
00:37:36,373 --> 00:37:38,933
So I don't know if I didn't, you know, it was kind of off the record.

495
00:37:39,093 --> 00:37:39,453
You know what I mean?

496
00:37:39,453 --> 00:37:40,973
Like when you're having conversations with people.

497
00:37:41,533 --> 00:37:43,993
But when I get the word, I will tell you.

498
00:37:43,993 --> 00:37:51,733
He says, for people that want privacy with regards to transactions and Bitcoin, is this not already solved by liquid Bitcoin?

499
00:37:52,173 --> 00:37:56,753
Is that because there's still some kind of province to the Bitcoin put in your wallet when pegging back into liquid?

500
00:37:57,233 --> 00:37:58,573
Or is there something else?

501
00:37:59,213 --> 00:37:59,853
It's something else.

502
00:38:00,033 --> 00:38:02,053
They don't understand liquid and or lightning.

503
00:38:02,413 --> 00:38:12,033
When the conversation around Bitcoin transactions come up, especially by people like Chamath, it's purely within the context of on-chain using traditional transactions.

504
00:38:12,033 --> 00:38:14,093
and even those are pseudo anonymous, right?

505
00:38:14,133 --> 00:38:16,453
It still takes work to identify those,

506
00:38:16,513 --> 00:38:17,233
but it can be done.

507
00:38:18,053 --> 00:38:20,413
Lightning and liquid's a whole other ballgame

508
00:38:20,413 --> 00:38:21,593
and it's one of those things

509
00:38:21,593 --> 00:38:22,713
I almost don't even want to talk about

510
00:38:22,713 --> 00:38:25,433
because I don't really want it to be that well known

511
00:38:25,433 --> 00:38:27,593
because I don't want it to go away.

512
00:38:27,993 --> 00:38:29,833
At the same time, I want to shake these people

513
00:38:29,833 --> 00:38:31,673
and be like, wake up, right?

514
00:38:31,933 --> 00:38:33,293
First of all, the fiat system

515
00:38:33,293 --> 00:38:35,153
has all these problems turned up to 11

516
00:38:35,153 --> 00:38:38,153
with industries that are making money off of it.

517
00:38:38,713 --> 00:38:39,553
It's so bad, right?

518
00:38:39,913 --> 00:38:41,933
So let's reset on the baseline.

519
00:38:42,033 --> 00:38:47,973
here. And then we have technologies in place today that help with privacy. And there's others

520
00:38:47,973 --> 00:38:51,693
besides liquid, obviously, and lightning as well. So if we have that today, well, then what's it

521
00:38:51,693 --> 00:38:55,933
going to look like in 10, 15, 20 years when central banks are actually holding Bitcoin at scale?

522
00:38:56,273 --> 00:39:00,433
It's going to be a non-conversation. It just, it makes me want to slap them sometimes. You know

523
00:39:00,433 --> 00:39:04,053
what I mean, Gene? Thank you. Appreciate the boost, Bean. Nice to hear from you.

524
00:39:04,813 --> 00:39:08,693
Cardboard Warriors here with 2,001 sat. Coming in hot with the boost.

525
00:39:08,693 --> 00:39:09,613
It just says nice.

526
00:39:09,873 --> 00:39:11,253
Yeah, it was nice.

527
00:39:11,633 --> 00:39:12,413
Thank you, sir.

528
00:39:13,453 --> 00:39:16,853
My Frio comes in with 11,111 sats.

529
00:39:17,073 --> 00:39:17,453
Hmm.

530
00:39:19,733 --> 00:39:19,953
Oh!

531
00:39:21,653 --> 00:39:24,553
Chamath definitely coming in with a shitcoin promotion soon.

532
00:39:24,813 --> 00:39:25,953
I know, right?

533
00:39:26,413 --> 00:39:28,113
Oh, it's so obnoxious.

534
00:39:28,853 --> 00:39:29,493
Thank you, Mufrio.

535
00:39:29,733 --> 00:39:30,473
Appreciate you.

536
00:39:30,793 --> 00:39:33,233
Loomer comes in with 5,000 sats.

537
00:39:33,553 --> 00:39:34,513
Danger zone.

538
00:39:34,893 --> 00:39:37,793
Appreciate the description of how PR articles become news.

539
00:39:37,793 --> 00:39:38,633
Danger zone.

540
00:39:38,693 --> 00:39:40,173
You're welcome, Loomer. Thank you for the value.

541
00:39:40,753 --> 00:39:42,933
OB comes in with 10,000 sats.

542
00:39:42,993 --> 00:39:44,673
It's over 9,000!

543
00:39:45,473 --> 00:39:46,553
No message, just value.

544
00:39:47,333 --> 00:39:49,053
Thank you, OB. Appreciate that.

545
00:39:49,893 --> 00:39:52,653
Outdoor Geek, he's back with 5,000 sats.

546
00:39:52,713 --> 00:39:54,013
The traders love the vol.

547
00:39:54,213 --> 00:39:57,073
I just used OpenCode with their free model to unpin,

548
00:39:57,253 --> 00:39:59,793
then remove a bunch of pinned but unsupported flatpacks.

549
00:40:00,433 --> 00:40:03,053
At work, I've been using GitHub Copilot for over a year or so.

550
00:40:03,413 --> 00:40:05,373
So far, it's just making me slightly more productive.

551
00:40:05,373 --> 00:40:13,033
However, more important is I will often try things I'm less familiar with because the cost of trying them is a couple minutes of running a prompt.

552
00:40:13,133 --> 00:40:16,953
For example, I added dark mode to an internal JavaScript site on a Friday afternoon.

553
00:40:17,273 --> 00:40:20,713
It took hours overall, but it was my first time using JavaScript.

554
00:40:21,273 --> 00:40:24,333
You know, I think this is exactly it, Outdoor Geek.

555
00:40:24,413 --> 00:40:28,593
It's an accelerator, and OpenCode is so awesome.

556
00:40:29,213 --> 00:40:30,713
It's a free software project.

557
00:40:31,713 --> 00:40:35,813
It's, you know, people out there that are using Cursor or you're using Claude, give it a try.

558
00:40:36,493 --> 00:40:37,173
Or Codex.

559
00:40:37,273 --> 00:40:38,353
I mean, those are all really good too.

560
00:40:38,493 --> 00:40:43,313
But OpenCode is a free software project that can plug in with any model and can authenticate to a lot of your accounts.

561
00:40:43,793 --> 00:40:46,113
Has a lot of great features and they've got good momentum.

562
00:40:46,593 --> 00:40:53,313
And one of the things that can be really powerful, besides it's built in, you know, build and plan mode and MCP server support and stuff like that.

563
00:40:53,533 --> 00:41:00,153
What can be really powerful about OpenCode is you can get stuck and then it's just a command away to switch to a different model.

564
00:41:00,713 --> 00:41:02,033
Try it on a different model and switch back,

565
00:41:02,093 --> 00:41:03,793
keeping track of all your costs and everything like that.

566
00:41:04,133 --> 00:41:06,033
But I think the thing that I meant to say

567
00:41:06,033 --> 00:41:07,193
that I got distracted with is

568
00:41:07,193 --> 00:41:09,293
not only is open code free software,

569
00:41:10,073 --> 00:41:10,993
but like Outdoor Geek saying,

570
00:41:11,053 --> 00:41:12,653
it comes out of the box with free models.

571
00:41:12,693 --> 00:41:13,853
And some of them are quite good.

572
00:41:14,513 --> 00:41:15,693
Some of them are in deep training,

573
00:41:15,773 --> 00:41:17,293
so you don't want to share anything private with them.

574
00:41:17,333 --> 00:41:18,673
But if you're just working through code,

575
00:41:18,893 --> 00:41:20,913
working through a Nix config or something like that,

576
00:41:20,913 --> 00:41:33,920
a comp file there nothing proprietary and private there So it such a huge powerful combo that if you are not experimenting with this right now it kind of like missing out on the early

577
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:38,840
days of Bitcoin. I don't think it's at that scale in terms of like how important it is for protecting

578
00:41:38,840 --> 00:41:44,340
your work today and your energy today for future, but it's an amplifier of your time. And your time

579
00:41:44,340 --> 00:41:48,840
might be even more, well, your time is more precious than Bitcoin. And I know a lot of you

580
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:52,440
out there have resisted this, but open code and the free models, and then eventually if you want

581
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:56,900
models that you can sign up for that are even more powerful, it's such an opportunity. It's there,

582
00:41:57,040 --> 00:42:02,320
it's free, it's ready for you to use. Thank you, Outdoor Geek. Appreciate you. Got me going there.

583
00:42:02,920 --> 00:42:10,080
Sats over bits comes in with a row of ducks. That's 2,222 sats. I like that name. Thank you

584
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:14,260
again for another breakdown of how ludicrous BIP110 is. I used to be in the knots camp,

585
00:42:14,260 --> 00:42:20,640
But once they moved from a node implementation to attempting to change consensus, they lost me completely.

586
00:42:21,060 --> 00:42:28,740
Plus the lynch mob tactics, rushed nature of the BIP, and how it could stain the Bitcoin brand and even damage parts of the network, I'll pass on joining this cult.

587
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:30,260
Great work as always, Chris.

588
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,460
Thank you, Sats, and I have a one more small BIP 110 update coming up in the show.

589
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:35,780
Appreciate that signal.

590
00:42:36,520 --> 00:42:40,540
Nakamoto 6102 is here with 3,500 Sats.

591
00:42:40,660 --> 00:42:42,440
This is a tasty burger.

592
00:42:42,700 --> 00:42:43,420
Thanks for the value.

593
00:42:43,420 --> 00:42:44,780
Well, thank you for the value.

594
00:42:44,940 --> 00:42:45,940
Appreciate that very much.

595
00:42:46,220 --> 00:42:48,360
Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days.

596
00:42:49,140 --> 00:42:52,580
Chance of Dizzy Spells comes in with 3,500 sats.

597
00:42:52,700 --> 00:42:55,480
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

598
00:42:56,020 --> 00:42:57,220
I like that one, too.

599
00:42:57,580 --> 00:43:02,060
He says, you deserve more value for value, but I'm facing some personal liquidity challenges at the moment.

600
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:03,120
I feel you, brother.

601
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,780
Where I work, they stopped hiring software graduates a few years ago.

602
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:08,420
I don't think they planned to switch to AI.

603
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:10,180
It was just a desperate measure.

604
00:43:10,180 --> 00:43:12,880
Now they're pivoting hard to agentic coding.

605
00:43:13,420 --> 00:43:25,940
Yeah, I can kind of understand that because I think one of the reasons I have pivoted into some magentic workflows is because I am so stretched on time and barely treading water, both as a business but as my time too.

606
00:43:25,940 --> 00:43:39,780
And the accumulated effect of that going on now really since COVID, really since J-POW initially raised the rates and destroyed the advertising market and then inflation took off.

607
00:43:39,780 --> 00:43:44,460
So, you know, I haven't raised advertising rates since then.

608
00:43:44,980 --> 00:43:45,900
So it's been four years.

609
00:43:46,620 --> 00:43:53,560
While my income is devalued by 30%, sponsors are declining because they want to sponsor YouTube.

610
00:43:54,480 --> 00:44:00,100
And so, you know, any kind of efficiencies that I can lean into are, you know, kind of lifesavers really.

611
00:44:00,540 --> 00:44:02,060
So I can understand where they're coming from.

612
00:44:02,300 --> 00:44:03,040
I don't like it.

613
00:44:03,040 --> 00:44:30,700
I would hope my intention would be for at least JB is that the efficiencies that are gained back give me the headspace to get the business right, to focus on those types of things that increase revenue in a way that doesn't impact content, which would be, you know, advertising like Linux unplugged swag that I should have been selling for every event we go to working with sponsors to make going to events, not just cost money or break even, but actually profitable.

614
00:44:30,700 --> 00:44:33,580
small things we could do if I just had the headspace.

615
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:36,500
And then that would lead to expanding the team.

616
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:38,980
And I hope that's maybe where they get to as well, Chance.

617
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:40,740
Thank you very much for that boost.

618
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:41,540
Appreciate you, sir.

619
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:43,200
Kiwi Bitcoin guide.

620
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:44,720
Yeah, he's back.

621
00:44:44,900 --> 00:44:47,220
He's coming in with 6,543 sets.

622
00:44:47,540 --> 00:44:48,300
I like you.

623
00:44:48,660 --> 00:44:49,740
You're a hot ticket.

624
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:51,060
Thanks for the signal.

625
00:44:51,060 --> 00:44:54,700
Can you help us understand the game theory for BIP-110 in relation to mining?

626
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:59,080
If they have very low hash rate, can this still cause disruption and potential chain split?

627
00:44:59,180 --> 00:45:00,580
It can definitely still cause disruption.

628
00:45:00,700 --> 00:45:04,980
My initial thoughts were that they won't get a significant amount of hash, so they'll just die on the vine.

629
00:45:05,380 --> 00:45:09,660
But proponents of 110 are talking like they can still force a counter fork if they have a minority hash.

630
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:12,220
Yeah, so we did dig into that a few weeks ago.

631
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:19,940
But a follow-up to that also is I think there is sort of a pressure campaign that sort of clicks in.

632
00:45:21,140 --> 00:45:24,700
And yeah, I'll talk about it in my BIP 110 follow-up coming up a little bit in the show.

633
00:45:25,220 --> 00:45:26,820
Thank you for the boost, Kiwi. Nice to hear from you.

634
00:45:27,140 --> 00:45:28,840
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

635
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:32,260
Good call on the Dalio privacy coin take.

636
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:33,360
I think you might be onto something.

637
00:45:33,480 --> 00:45:34,380
Yeah, him and Shamath, right?

638
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:36,640
And there's another billionaire chirping in now, too.

639
00:45:36,740 --> 00:45:37,660
We'll get to that in just a moment.

640
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:41,220
But first, I want to say thank you to everybody who boosted the show.

641
00:45:41,620 --> 00:45:43,700
And thank you to our streamers.

642
00:45:43,820 --> 00:45:46,760
Actually, our sat streamers, collectively, you are the baller this week.

643
00:45:46,880 --> 00:45:47,1000
Shout out to our sat streamers.

644
00:45:52,560 --> 00:45:56,740
Collectively, you streamed 84,194 sats to the show.

645
00:45:56,820 --> 00:45:57,620
So that was a big lift.

646
00:45:57,620 --> 00:46:05,700
And that brings our grand total for episode 96 to 195,139 sats.

647
00:46:06,020 --> 00:46:07,220
Not fantastic.

648
00:46:10,180 --> 00:46:11,320
Really, it's nice.

649
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:12,960
And I really am thankful and grateful, actually.

650
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:25,280
If you break it down into an hourly wage for two to three days of work, realistically three, it's pretty devastating.

651
00:46:25,860 --> 00:46:28,440
So I think I'm going to break from format next week.

652
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,020
I think we need to change things up a little bit.

653
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:31,640
I need to change things up a little bit.

654
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:36,380
I can't keep running at 100% and, you know, end up at 195,000 sets.

655
00:46:36,660 --> 00:46:40,160
So what I'm going to do, I think, is I'm going to try to come up with something we can do to change things up a little bit,

656
00:46:40,220 --> 00:46:44,740
just to bring some energy back into myself and the show and see where that goes.

657
00:46:45,040 --> 00:46:48,160
Because I think, you know, when you see a low amount like this, clearly we need to do some adjustment.

658
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:50,640
And I do appreciate everyone who does support the show.

659
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,100
and you know really I'm grateful too that we have as many people supporting during

660
00:46:54,100 --> 00:46:58,480
kind of a bear market as we do it really just comes down to the economics of it for me

661
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:02,160
so I'm going to think about it I haven't really made a decision yet because I'm just getting that

662
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:05,960
information but I think that's maybe somewhere we'll go and hopefully it'll be fun you know

663
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:10,120
it won't necessarily be a bummer it'll just be different thank you everybody who supports the

664
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:14,1000
show you can also put your support on autopilot with a jupiter.party membership or a fountain

665
00:47:14,1000 --> 00:47:16,280
fm membership as well

666
00:47:20,640 --> 00:47:31,140
Well, there's no doubt that Bitcoin's price has been doing better.

667
00:47:31,500 --> 00:47:34,860
I think we're still probably in for a bit of a ride.

668
00:47:34,1000 --> 00:47:38,220
But it's been better since the lawsuit against Jane Street went public

669
00:47:38,220 --> 00:47:41,240
and the 10 a.m. market slam just coincidentally stopped.

670
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,600
Of course, correlation does not equal causation.

671
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:48,660
And Bitwise's Matt Hogan says there's no 10 a.m. slam manipulation.

672
00:47:48,920 --> 00:47:50,240
It's much simpler than that.

673
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:57,120
The reason crypto is down is because people who held Bitcoin at the start of 2025 sold it.

674
00:47:58,020 --> 00:48:01,180
That's it. That's the reason crypto is down.

675
00:48:01,340 --> 00:48:02,980
The problem is actually in the mirror.

676
00:48:02,980 --> 00:48:04,320
It's not someone outside.

677
00:48:04,640 --> 00:48:09,660
It's us looking at each other and saying, like, we crypto sold Bitcoin and the price went down.

678
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:14,980
I think the Jane Street story has to be fractured into multiple different parts if you want to dig into it.

679
00:48:15,340 --> 00:48:17,960
So there's the Terra Luna question, right?

680
00:48:18,040 --> 00:48:19,740
Terra Luna was doomed from the start.

681
00:48:19,740 --> 00:48:22,560
There's a reason Bitwise never put it in our index, right?

682
00:48:22,780 --> 00:48:24,360
It was doomed from the start.

683
00:48:25,020 --> 00:48:30,360
And the question of whether Jane Street used insider information to profit on it is something

684
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:31,520
that we'll find out in court.

685
00:48:31,620 --> 00:48:33,540
I have no particular view.

686
00:48:34,180 --> 00:48:40,060
The question of whether there is some weird magical arbitrage between Jane Street and

687
00:48:40,060 --> 00:48:47,120
how ETFs are created and a 10 a.m. dump just has no actual logical path if you know how

688
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:48,040
ETFs function.

689
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:54,760
Now, the one thing here is maybe some people were, but I never got the impression that was quite the argument.

690
00:48:54,980 --> 00:49:09,280
The impression I had is that maybe Jane Street was doing some leverage shenanigans to manipulate price to get great deals for OTC trades or to score them a big bag so then they could make it available to other institutions outside of any particular dynamics around the ETF.

691
00:49:10,180 --> 00:49:15,680
But that's where Matt takes this, which I thought was kind of interesting because that at least wasn't my suggestion, but it seems to be of some.

692
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,420
But he does continue here.

693
00:49:17,700 --> 00:49:21,140
And I think maybe he kind of dances around the core issue here.

694
00:49:21,900 --> 00:49:28,380
There's literally no way for Jane Street to profit in the ETF market because they're dumping.

695
00:49:28,820 --> 00:49:33,400
I've seen so many terrible takes that are just not backed by how ETFs work.

696
00:49:33,960 --> 00:49:36,220
I come from CEO of ETF.com.

697
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:37,900
So that story is untrue.

698
00:49:37,900 --> 00:49:49,120
The question in the middle is, did Jane Street ever look at leverage markets and create a cascade of liquidations to put the price?

699
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,960
That's a broader question in crypto, right?

700
00:49:51,1000 --> 00:50:01,400
A lot of people have said forever that the fact that you can see the leverage liquidation levels in the market causes some people to create cascades in those markets.

701
00:50:01,720 --> 00:50:03,640
I don't know.

702
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:12,860
But the latest iteration that there is this weird nexus between Jane Street ETFs and a 10 a.m. dump that we only found out about after the fact, that one is just false.

703
00:50:13,500 --> 00:50:16,680
So, you know, these other two, I don't know, but that one is just false.

704
00:50:17,420 --> 00:50:17,560
Damn.

705
00:50:17,780 --> 00:50:18,100
Of course.

706
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:19,080
I was hoping that was true.

707
00:50:19,300 --> 00:50:22,960
You know, Bitwise does work with Jane Street, but I believe Matt there on that part.

708
00:50:23,680 --> 00:50:24,600
So, all right.

709
00:50:24,780 --> 00:50:29,160
Just thought I'd touch on that because, you know, sort of following up, closing the loop, as they say.

710
00:50:29,900 --> 00:50:33,540
Now, we have another billionaire singing a tune that sounds awfully familiar.

711
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:39,240
billionaire drunken miller stanley drunken miller you guys probably heard it's drunk who else has a

712
00:50:39,240 --> 00:50:43,580
name like that druck it's druck miller not drunk or whatever drunken miller it's got a ck in there

713
00:50:43,580 --> 00:50:51,540
i don't care anyways this guy he's doing the same same playbook his billionaire buddies like chamoth

714
00:50:51,540 --> 00:50:58,300
and ray dalio also he was a public early bitcoin adopter talking about the issues of debasement

715
00:50:58,300 --> 00:51:03,460
and how bitcoin solved it and he just like the other two used a recent interview to say that

716
00:51:03,460 --> 00:51:07,340
well, he's rather sad people ever use crypto as a store of value,

717
00:51:07,519 --> 00:51:09,820
and then goes on to say why he's bullish about crypto.

718
00:51:10,040 --> 00:51:12,720
But to a point, I think they're fine.

719
00:51:13,340 --> 00:51:13,820
Crypto?

720
00:51:14,220 --> 00:51:17,860
I said this a long time ago, and I'm going to say it again.

721
00:51:18,460 --> 00:51:20,640
It's a solution looking for a problem.

722
00:51:21,320 --> 00:51:25,620
I'm very sad that it ever happened as a store of value

723
00:51:25,620 --> 00:51:27,680
because it wasn't needed.

724
00:51:28,180 --> 00:51:30,640
But it's a brand, and these people love it,

725
00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:32,260
so it's going to be a store of value.

726
00:51:32,260 --> 00:51:42,680
On the other hand, blockchain and the use of stable coins, if you want to throw crypto into that, tokens, incredibly useful in terms of productivity.

727
00:51:43,440 --> 00:51:47,700
I assume our whole payment systems will be stable coins in 10 or 15 years.

728
00:51:48,160 --> 00:51:49,760
Efficient, quicker, cheaper.

729
00:51:50,780 --> 00:51:57,060
Okay, so what I always have to say here is there's a few tells.

730
00:51:57,700 --> 00:52:04,440
When he said it was unnecessary, well, I guess it's unnecessary to someone who has what is essentially effectively infinite money.

731
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:09,260
Storing the value of your hard-earned day-to-day grind seems unnecessary to him.

732
00:52:09,720 --> 00:52:15,740
And yet he's bullish on tokenizing the existing system because that existing system has served him extremely supremely well.

733
00:52:16,180 --> 00:52:19,420
And what these guys are doing, I think, is they're looking at Bitcoin and they're looking at gold.

734
00:52:19,500 --> 00:52:21,200
They're looking at the last five years and they say, oh, it said Bitcoin.

735
00:52:21,380 --> 00:52:23,480
It's done. It's done. It's over.

736
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:31,120
and and you know i think this is i think this is i don't in miller's case i don't think it's him

737
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:37,260
leading to another shit coin i think it's just they see something pumping they see some sort of

738
00:52:37,260 --> 00:52:43,040
shift they assume the moment has passed and they're back on the gold train and then why not

739
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:47,460
tokenize everything and make a bunch of money and extract rent from the system it's cynical but i

740
00:52:47,460 --> 00:52:52,480
think that's really where their incentives and point of view come from all right let's talk about

741
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:57,920
one of the lesser discussed aspects of BIP-110. And, you know, with the major changes that BIP-110

742
00:52:57,920 --> 00:53:03,300
is proposing, most of the focus has been on those changes, understandably. But I think it's worth a

743
00:53:03,300 --> 00:53:09,080
moment of our time to remember that there are elements of the BIP-110 proposal that are unusual

744
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:14,519
and concerning outside of just the technical changes. And when you think of this, I think

745
00:53:14,519 --> 00:53:20,120
it's fair to say that BIP-110 would be a change at the scale of the block size war,

746
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:23,200
at the size of the big blockers.

747
00:53:24,019 --> 00:53:25,680
And so we really need to consider everything.

748
00:53:26,500 --> 00:53:29,680
BIP-110 was proposed by a pseudo-anonymous developer

749
00:53:29,680 --> 00:53:32,260
known as Dathom Om,

750
00:53:32,660 --> 00:53:35,900
and I'm not quite sure where that name comes from.

751
00:53:36,500 --> 00:53:39,180
It could be a nod to the biblical Dathom.

752
00:53:39,580 --> 00:53:41,320
Dathom and his brother Abraham,

753
00:53:41,740 --> 00:53:44,019
they led a major rebellion against Moses

754
00:53:44,019 --> 00:53:45,900
and Aaron's authority during Exodus.

755
00:53:46,700 --> 00:53:49,060
And it's notable because Luke Dasher himself

756
00:53:49,060 --> 00:53:53,540
is extremely public about his religious faith, and he's known to have been involved with the

757
00:53:53,540 --> 00:53:59,200
drafting of BIP-110. But the identity behind the person proposing the largest change to Bitcoin

758
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:04,980
in Bitcoin's history remains unknown. There have been unverified claims linking their identity to

759
00:54:04,980 --> 00:54:10,060
ocean mining. But with that context, with that just wild aspect of this, I want to play this clip.

760
00:54:10,800 --> 00:54:15,280
I assume these people are idiots who like to just use Bitcoin for things besides money. Let's put

761
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:20,780
that aside for a moment because what they reveal in this podcast interview is that luke has been

762
00:54:20,780 --> 00:54:27,180
planning something like bip 10 for a very long time the thing that like really caught my eye this

763
00:54:27,180 --> 00:54:36,060
week is that somehow you guys managed to incur the wrath and ire of the bitcoin filter camp the people

764
00:54:36,060 --> 00:54:44,880
behind the 110 filter proposal like what in the world happened okay so first of all i was sorry i

765
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:49,420
I'll just say real quickly that we have talked back and forth with Luke

766
00:54:49,420 --> 00:54:51,019
Dasher from ocean mining,

767
00:54:51,100 --> 00:54:54,1000
the guy who maintains knots multiple times over the past two years.

768
00:54:54,1000 --> 00:54:55,360
Okay.

769
00:54:55,400 --> 00:54:56,540
We've had probably three,

770
00:54:56,700 --> 00:54:58,460
four multiple hour calls with him.

771
00:54:58,460 --> 00:55:02,480
We've had two IRL meetups where he came to our house and hung out here.

772
00:55:02,540 --> 00:55:03,640
And we talked about off net with him.

773
00:55:03,640 --> 00:55:03,900
Right.

774
00:55:04,019 --> 00:55:05,720
So he's acting like totally,

775
00:55:05,960 --> 00:55:06,200
Oh,

776
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:07,300
I have no idea this was coming.

777
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:07,480
No,

778
00:55:07,540 --> 00:55:09,620
this guy's known about this since basically day one.

779
00:55:09,620 --> 00:55:15,180
Luke has been planning BIP-110 for a long time.

780
00:55:15,226 --> 00:55:19,966
and he seems to be at least involved with the drafting of BIP-110.

781
00:55:21,206 --> 00:55:23,606
Dathamolm seems to at least have connections to ocean mining,

782
00:55:23,726 --> 00:55:26,426
which Luke also has connections to, so does Bitcoin Mechanic.

783
00:55:27,166 --> 00:55:31,626
The way BIP-110 consolidates political power with Luke and ocean mining

784
00:55:31,626 --> 00:55:35,726
and any miners that they can pressure into this with threats of CSAM,

785
00:55:36,886 --> 00:55:39,466
it's wild that we would even be considering this.

786
00:55:40,266 --> 00:55:43,786
It's taking Bitcoin and it's centralizing political power

787
00:55:43,786 --> 00:55:45,386
with just a small group of people

788
00:55:45,386 --> 00:55:47,226
that have been orchestrating this entire thing

789
00:55:47,226 --> 00:55:47,866
from the beginning.

790
00:55:48,766 --> 00:55:51,466
This alone is a disqualifier for BIP-110.

791
00:55:52,286 --> 00:55:54,586
And honestly, somebody should put a real name on this thing.

792
00:55:55,226 --> 00:55:57,146
I'm generally all for Bitcoin developers

793
00:55:57,146 --> 00:55:58,226
remaining totally anonymous,

794
00:55:58,486 --> 00:55:59,946
but if you want to re-architect things,

795
00:56:00,026 --> 00:56:01,026
I think you should put your name on it.

796
00:56:01,566 --> 00:56:03,466
You should be in the history books for this.

797
00:56:04,486 --> 00:56:07,606
BIP-110 has been murky and mysterious from the beginning,

798
00:56:07,886 --> 00:56:10,526
and it proposes changes that would have a bigger impact

799
00:56:10,526 --> 00:56:12,206
than the block-size changes would have had.

800
00:56:12,206 --> 00:56:16,686
And it ultimately consolidates political power with Luke and ocean mining.

801
00:56:18,686 --> 00:56:22,566
This alone, right there, is a disqualifier for any of this.

802
00:56:33,026 --> 00:56:35,866
Let's check in on the state of the network.

803
00:56:36,146 --> 00:56:49,266
The block item wrapping up at is the price to us dollar right now for one Bitcoin is That puts our sats per dollar at 1 sats to one U dollar

804
00:56:49,866 --> 00:56:53,386
We're down a hearty 43.7% from our all-time high,

805
00:56:53,986 --> 00:56:57,266
which was 163 days ago on October 6, 2025.

806
00:56:57,846 --> 00:57:01,306
Our difficulty retarget date is March 20, 2026,

807
00:57:01,306 --> 00:57:05,646
with an estimated difficulty change downwards of 7.8%.

808
00:57:06,446 --> 00:57:09,126
The Bitcoin nodes on the network continues to decline slightly as well,

809
00:57:09,186 --> 00:57:12,946
with reachable nodes currently at 23,647 nodes.

810
00:57:13,806 --> 00:57:14,626
We've got to node up.

811
00:57:15,266 --> 00:57:16,146
We've got to node up, people.

812
00:57:17,346 --> 00:57:21,586
However, the Bitcoin network continues to adjust, adapt, and run smoothly.

813
00:57:21,586 --> 00:57:24,006
The state of the network remains strong.

814
00:57:35,646 --> 00:57:41,806
You can find source material and links for what I talked about at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

815
00:57:42,186 --> 00:57:43,646
This was episode 96.

816
00:57:44,246 --> 00:57:50,066
My goal is to create something that doesn't get distracted by the emotions around what's happening, focuses on the signal for you.

817
00:57:50,306 --> 00:57:52,026
So let me know how I did with a boost.

818
00:57:52,166 --> 00:57:57,386
Trying to help you out with your decisions for your future, your family, your business, your friends, yourself, all of that.

819
00:57:57,966 --> 00:57:59,046
And a boost always helps the show.

820
00:57:59,046 --> 00:58:02,786
Also, don't forget that if you boost during the track

821
00:58:02,786 --> 00:58:14,605
that I about to play 95 of your sats will go to that artist It pretty great and they love it It really makes their day So I going to leave you with a track from I think it Rizek is how you say it

822
00:58:14,605 --> 00:58:17,905
and the track is Moment of Clarity.

823
00:58:33,065 --> 00:59:03,045
We'll be right back.

824
00:59:03,065 --> 00:59:05,305
I'm not deaf to go hungry.

825
00:59:06,545 --> 00:59:07,925
I have everything you need.

826
00:59:10,105 --> 00:59:12,565
Oh, I'm just losing my mind, that's all.

827
00:59:18,225 --> 00:59:19,325
I understand.

828
00:59:19,325 --> 00:59:19,725
I understand.

829
00:59:33,065 --> 00:59:59,465
We be right back

830
00:59:59,485 --> 01:00:17,605
I understand my everything.

831
01:00:17,605 --> 01:00:21,365
I understand my everything.

832
01:00:23,425 --> 01:00:25,545
I understand my everything.

833
01:00:25,545 --> 01:00:28,545
Bye-bye.

834
01:00:55,545 --> 01:01:02,005
Phil Is Sacřed