Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 92.
My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupyterBroadcasting.com.
This week kicked off with a banger of a macro story you might not have even heard about.
A Bloomberg scoop revealed that Chinese officials have verbally warned their domestic banks to limit their U.S. dollar holdings.
And they've confirmed over there at Bloomberg that some of these banks have begun trimming their exposure in response to these instructions.
I think some of us suspected this was going on, but now we have Bloomberg reporting that confirms it.
China, the largest strategic U.S. holder of debt for a generation, is quietly telling its banks, we want you to limit your dollar exposure.
Shh, no official memo, just quiet.
Shh, by the way, they're not dumping, they're not panicking.
They're just diversifying.
Well, that's exactly what you would expect, isn't it?
You just see these kinds of things when you're rotating away from the dollar.
Not a dramatic dump, not a big headline crisis that hurts everybody.
They don't want that.
Just steady diversification into gold and into really alternatives,
anything that kind of moves away from dependency on Washington.
We're seeing it right here confirmed this week that it's happening.
If this trend continues, think about where the U.S. goes.
If all of these other nations are piling into gold, what does the U.S. pile into?
I'll tell you, there's one reserve asset that's neutral that they could front run this entire shift, and it's Bitcoin.
so let's take a look at the macro situation for the world's most disruptive financial market
because there was big news big news this week really came out this morning as i'm recording
130,000 jobs created for the month of January.
The estimate was 70,000.
Wow, I was right, Maria.
4.3% is the unemployment rate.
The street was looking for 4.4%.
This is not the kind of report we expected to see, guys.
Let me give you the government jobs picture.
That is negative 42,000 on the government side part of the equation.
We saw that in the reports previously.
We also saw labor force participation rate, 62.5 percent.
Average hourly earnings, 0.41 percent.
Oh, it's big news. It's big news.
So here's what's going on here.
The unemployment rate is down slightly to 4.3 percent.
It was at 4.4 percent, and the forecast, we're expecting 4.4.
So they got 4.3, and everybody's super excited.
The official numbers show 7.4 million total unemployed people in the U.S.
But that is higher than the 6.9 million reported a year ago.
The interesting number in here is the federal government employee number is now the lowest it has been in 50 years.
The financial press is so excited by this news.
To say they're excited is an understatement.
They're going nuts.
They're bringing umbrellas and hats and props and celebrating.
Say that nobody's going to rain on my parade.
And these numbers are what they are.
And 50K.
I made this hat two months ago.
So Rick Santelli is in the CNBC studio with a umbrella saying nobody can rain on his parade.
And then he pops on a white Dow 50K hat because he's feeling bullish.
These numbers are what they are.
And 50K.
I made this hat two months ago.
And the reason I made it is for exactly a day like today.
All these naysayers steeped in politics continue to be negative.
That's OK, because 50K says you've all been wrong.
You keep from going in the water, even though it's very hot outside.
I say all the investment gurus out there.
All right, you get the point.
They're feeling a little hyped about these numbers here.
But all right, it's good.
But there's, well, a couple of buts, actually.
The Truflation Independent Index reveals a different number.
13,000 job drop to 143.1 million employed.
They actually show a contraction.
They suspect that it is highlighting a potential lag in the official figures.
And I would say we often see downward revisions of these reports.
And the initial reaction for Bitcoin was negative because if this report is true, it weakens the case for further rate cuts.
And the market has decided that the fate of all liquidity lives and dies on the probability if we're going to have rate cuts.
And then there's that whole Fed thing that's hanging over the market that is also jerking Bitcoin around.
And man, is this frustrating to watch.
And President Trump isn't helping the situation at all.
When did you, in your heart and mind, when did you know you wanted Kevin Walsh?
This is Kudlow on Fox Biz interviewing President Trump.
So.
Officially, it was two Fridays ago.
Well, I made a mistake.
He was runner-up, if you want to say that.
He was a finalist.
Yeah, he was.
And I made a mistake because I had somebody that was my secretary of the treasury,
wanted him so badly, so badly.
And, you know, I didn't feel good about him.
But sometimes you listen to people, and it was a mistake.
What?
The guy isn't even in office yet.
So a couple of things are interesting about this.
number one he's once again throwing scott besant under the bus here this is the second or third
time i've noticed him do this number two he's saying it was a mistake before the guy's even
gone into office so this is either a remarkable demonstration of trump's i guess put charitably
ability to change his mind but or are we seeing a little good cop bad cop play out here is this
is this some sort of is this i know this sounds a little conspiracy bacon so stick with me for a
moment on this but i almost wonder if there isn't a bit of a wink and a nod between the treasury and
the new fed chair nomination because they he worse put out some some post about a new accord with the
treasury and working better together and i think part of that could also be trying to restore
credibility around the fed so that way it's a more effective partnership and if that's true then trump
making these statements would tell the market that he's not a puppet and it would be an attempt
to restore credibility to the Fed. No idea if that's what's happening here. Or we are watching
just incredible volatility in real time. Now, he does pivot the position later on in the interview.
I didn't feel good about him, but sometimes you listen to people and it was a mistake.
It was really a big mistake. But I think we're going to do something that's really spectacular.
All right. So now here's a bit later in the interview.
We should be at 15 percent if, I'll tell you, if our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great.
So now he thinks he's going to be great.
He's a really high quality person.
But if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15 percent.
I think more than that.
15 percent GDP would be pretty bonkers.
Pretty bonkers.
So that, obviously, not doing a lot for confidence.
But honestly, I don't think Trump's comments, while they matter, I don't really think that's what's shifting the market around what's going on with the Fed.
They're digesting what could be a much larger swing in monetary theory and policy.
As I always say, for Bitcoin, it comes down to liquidity.
If there isn't liquidity, you can't move a trillion-dollar market.
It needs to go up.
And for it to go up when it's already over a trillion dollars or around a trillion dollars, that's a lot more money than you and I probably have.
And that's something Merrill Holdings CEO Fred Thiel has been thinking about, specifically in the context of gold and its performance relative to Bitcoin recently.
Essentially, what I think we're going to see is if you look at pricing mostly in the evenings, East Coast time, you're seeing selling, which tends to mean it's happening in Asia and you're still seeing a deleveraging of Bitcoin.
There's a huge derivative market that is very liquid around Bitcoin, even bigger than the spot market.
And what that does is when people lever up, sometimes with 100 to 1 times leverage, and you get price moves, you get massive liquidations, we're still seeing some of that ending out.
At the same time, you had gold as a momentum play all of a sudden.
Gold, which has been sleepy, turned into a momo.
And away it went.
Silver followed it.
And you had money go from crypto into gold.
You had money already going from crypto into AI.
And as AI lost a little bit of its luster, it moved back to gold again.
And so it's all about these swings.
And there's no swing back to Bitcoin yet as they're trying to digest this policy change that could be coming.
And honestly, this is just a gray area we find ourselves in for a while.
That's how I teased it. You have a number in mind. What is it?
I actually think there's a reasonable chance we saw the bottom last week.
This here is Bill Miller, and he is the, I guess, chief investment officer and chairman over at Miller Value.
rich guy. And he says we're in the bottom area of the Bitcoin price range now because the market
is sorting out this new policy. 60,000. And there's a couple of reasons for that.
First and foremost, $60,000 is the cash production cost for a new Bitcoin. Okay. So what happens is
when you get below that, the weak miners start going out of business, they shut down,
and they're the main source of marginal selling pressure. So when the weak hands are out,
okay, you have a less selling pressure and it's likely to put in a bottom.
The second reason is Bitcoin trades on global liquidity.
And if you look at when it peaked in the fall, it just so happened to be the exact same time that the Fed noticed huge stresses in short-term funding markets that effectively created an entire 180 on monetary policy.
So if you look at what the Fed was doing in the fall, they were allowing $50 billion a month to go off of their balance sheet, just drain away.
Now, what happened in December?
They did a complete 180 on that.
What they're doing is buying $40 billion net a month.
So you've seen a net swing in liquidity from the world's largest liquidity provider to the tune of $90 billion a month.
So you have this huge floor of liquidity that just came in.
You've got the cash production costs there.
And there's another technical element here, which is if you look at historical bottoms in Bitcoin,
they've often happened when the percent of the supply in loss exceeds the percent of the supply in profit.
And $60,000 is right around where that happened.
So you have a whole bunch of factors converging at around $60,000.
Okay, it's funny you mentioned.
Well, I thought I'd have some good news for you around this.
The White House was talking like there would be good news.
Let's do a quick hit on the clarity stuff.
You know, speaking of money flowing to Bitcoin, we've got to talk about this because it is impacting Bitcoin.
I wish we didn't.
But the White House, they were going to sit everybody down.
Talk real tough and come to a final agreement on the Clarity Act.
The theory being that once that happens, perhaps we'll see money come back in.
We'll get to that. Stay tuned for that.
But first, listen to this spicy clip from Scotty B, who I think is throwing Brian Armstrong of Coinbase under the bus.
He's fed up.
I think what we're seeing in the crypto market over the past few months means more than ever that the U.S., we need market structure.
We need clarity and we need to get this across the line this spring.
We got a few recalcitrant actors who said, well, it'd be better to have no legislation
than the legislation we don't want.
And I think both on the banks, the other crypto firms are united against them.
So we need to get this across the line.
The U.S., under President Trump's leadership, the U.S. is becoming the crypto capital world
with our best practices, best regulation.
and for crypto to remain a viable digital asset and move forward.
We need to get this Clarity Act done.
So it sounds like Scott's pretty serious and not too happy with old Brian Armstrong for saying
no legislation is better than this legislation.
And Scott's saying if you don't get this, you don't have an industry.
OK.
So you think it will be?
It'll come back fairly soon then?
I'm optimistic and there's bipartisan support here.
That was U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with me on Sunday morning, future Sunday, optimistic that Congress will bring back the Clarity Act for markup soon.
U.S. crypto and banking executives, including J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, met at the White House yesterday for a second time to discuss stablecoin legislation.
Both sides failing to reach a compromise on the language in the Clarity Act, specifically regarding crypto firms' ability to pay rewards on stablecoins.
Womp womp. Isn't it remarkable, though, that crypto legislation is headline news? It's really something. So there was no agreement reached, even though they try to bring them all together at the White House. The banks came in with a list. This was shared on social media of prohibition principles, and they pushed for a near total ban on rewards tied to holding, using and storing stable coins. Again, their main concern there is that you'll you'll switch your savings over stable coins and leave the bank.
There was one small shift Banks showed a limited openness to exceptions if rewards were tied strictly to transactions So if you using the money I guess So if it not your savings I suppose So why does this keep getting tied back to liquidity flows for Bitcoin
Why do I keep saying, even though there's not a lot in the Clarity Act that impacts Bitcoin directly, this is a drag on the global price of Bitcoin?
Well, if you can believe it, the mooch actually has an explanation.
Yeah.
What's the price of Bitcoin?
Well, I'm going to stick to the $150.
$150.
I'm going to stick to that.
I think this thing will grind higher.
And I think once that legislation does pass, it's going to open a floodgate of activity in the money center banks in the United States.
And remember, that's the real circulatory system for global capitalism.
And so this is a small asset class relative to the other asset classes that it should be compared to.
Now, these things always get overblown.
The reality will be somewhere in the middle.
It will be the green light that the banks and the institutions that always follow the rules.
I used to work for a bank, so I know how that goes.
They're very, very, very careful about those kinds of things.
They're going to wait until there's market structure to move in and create products around it that the boomers and Gen Xers who have yet to get in.
And perhaps even the younger kids, they're going to be buying via Robinhood and things like that.
They're going to create products for all these people where they wrap up the actual spot asset into some sort of corporate product that, you know, has a yield or something that it makes it attractive to them.
And that'll be how they bring them in.
But they're not going to get into that market until they have clear rules here.
It's dumb.
It's boring.
But it is a major blocker.
Well, pack it up, everybody, because it turns out it was a lie all along.
There was never any value in Bitcoin.
It's so funny when the price is down, the Luddites really come out.
They always take their victory lap, not like they used to, because they know that Bitcoiners are keeping receipts, a.k.a. screenshots.
But there must be an echo chamber of just the most substantial proportions over at the Financial Times,
because they write the dumbest things and say the stupidest things when the Bitcoin price is down.
And they have for years. It's tradition at this point.
And this is a Financial Times journalist saying that Bitcoin is worthless.
And she'll go through a couple of reasons that I have seen traditional investors really touting recently.
And if you know any of these, if you are one or if you're related to one or a friend of yours is a traditional value investor,
These are things they're really hitting on right now.
So I think it's worth responding to.
So, you know, you can be clear-headed when these things get thrown in your face.
Sometimes they're so dumb, you just sit there like, what?
Did you just say that?
Where do you actually think its kind of value should be?
No, I do genuinely think its value is zero.
Now, again, this is the journalist from Financial Times.
I think there is no inherent value to it.
I think that it has this pretend argument that it has scarcity.
But in fact, although it's true that there are 21 million, there's going to be a total of 21 million Bitcoins, there is no limit to the number of copycat cryptocurrencies, many of which can do more than Bitcoin can.
So you have to keep making this argument that Bitcoin is the only one.
That's the people who kind of push Bitcoin as the only one because it's the only way to claim that there is any scarcity.
And basically what it's all based on is just belief.
And it's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth.
Right. So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow because it might be because I'm basically would be betting on at what point people people are going to stop to believe in it.
And there are people who have a lot, a hugely vested interest in it.
All right. So let's break this down a little bit because she's pulling out a couple of common Bitcoin criticism tropes.
first one i'll just mention here is you'll notice they always do this is they try to bring up one
argument and then they kind of roll and parlay into another reason that's also sort of nebulous
and doesn't make sense but it's sort of like combining these two together makes their full
argument they never just stick with the one okay i guess they don't know maybe they don't know it's
strong enough you know because if you just think about it for a second like well does that mean the
Mona Lisa is worthless because anyone can print a poster of it.
Maybe scarcity isn't about copies.
Maybe it's about the original and the network effect.
Maybe.
I mean, she really misses the network effect in this entire thing.
And that's been the success key to any platform, tech platform, in real world platform, sports
platform, the network effect.
That's what makes things valuable in the tech industry on the internet and in real life
is the network effect.
Okay, so she has the – there's all these other cryptos.
That's crazy too when you think about it because there's all these other metals, right?
There's all kinds of different oils besides just crude oil, right?
It just – it doesn't really make sense.
But in fact, although it's true that there are 21 million – there's going to be a total of 21 million bitcoins, there is no limit to the number of copycat cryptocurrencies, many of which can do more than Bitcoin can.
So you have to keep making this argument that Bitcoin is the only one.
That's the people who kind of push Bitcoin as the only one because it's the only way to claim that there is any scarcity.
So what she's missing there, too, is the sound money argument.
She doesn't understand what makes something hard money and sound money.
And so she can conflate Ethereum, which is a technology platform or smart contracts with Bitcoin, which is the hardest money ever created by humans.
And you go to Google, just look up what makes up hard money.
And it's Bitcoin.
It's Bitcoin, too.
It's the best version of that we've ever created.
And so she's missing that aspect of it and can't differentiate that between all the other cryptos.
But let's get to the one that I think you'll hear the most from the older generations and maybe people that have just read about Bitcoin.
And that is it's only worth what people believe in.
And basically what it's all based on is just belief.
And it's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth, right?
So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow.
Now, she kind of has a good point in some way here, right?
It is true.
In some sense, things are only worth what people believe in.
Value is a shared hallucination.
So that's why I think we should hear this out.
It's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth, right?
So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow because it might be because I'm basically would be betting on at what point people are going to stop to believe in it.
And there are people who have a lot, a hugely vested interest in it.
People like Michael Saylor, who you just mentioned.
Right.
Just like there's people who have a vested interest in the government's paper IOUs because they pay their taxes.
There's a utility there.
So they ultimately do have a value, just like there is a utility with Bitcoin.
Right.
It's tamper proof ledger is unique.
You can zap value worldwide without a middleman with very low fees instantaneously.
You can't move gold like that.
There is a fixed supply that isn't just a line of code, but it's baked into the issuance schedule and the mining and the nodes and all of it would have to be adapted and changed.
There's no sovereign risk.
There's no bank risk.
And there's a network of millions of users around the world already.
Those facts right there give it utility.
Then you have the application ecosystem and the community ecosystem.
All of those things bring it utility and value.
But she doesn't understand any of that.
They just get stuck in the system that they have lived in and it has worked for them for most of their lives.
They understand debasement trade's a thing, but they just haven't wrapped their heads around the scale of the issue and the need for a digital store of value, especially for younger generations and people that can't buy property.
She just, she isn't there.
Their echo chamber, their milieu is too well off.
Ironically, your buddy Tom Lee puts it in perspective by looking at gold and how much it's actually sucked as an inflation hedge.
So if you ask me in 2026, I think gold is going to underperform Bitcoin.
Since 1971, I've plotted gold's return versus inflation on a three year rolling basis.
OK, and every time it's red, gold did worse than inflation.
So this is an interesting chart.
So this was at Consensus in Hong Kong recently.
And Coindesk put this clip out if you want to go try to find his chart.
And he's looking at a store of value property since 1971.
And he's got it on here with this chart and he's looking at inflation.
And it shows that gold has underperformed inflation, not 10 percent of the time, not 20 percent of the time, not even 30 percent of the time.
But 48 percent of the time, gold is underperforming inflation.
48% of the time in the last 50 years, gold has not stored value. It's done worse than inflation.
And then since Bitcoin was created, Bitcoin has only underperformed inflation five months
out of 160 months, which means 3% of the time. But in that same period of time,
Gold underperformed inflation 44% of the time.
So again, I think you don't want to lose hope in Bitcoin.
It's been a better store of value than gold, even though gold has looked better in the past year.
And that's it right there.
That is it right there.
And that's something you just got to keep in mind when things are a little shaky.
And I have a question for you.
Two questions, really.
How low do you think we're going to go?
Big Money wants the Clarity Act to pass.
Market makers that are left are happy to eat up at low prices after getting just totally gut punched in October.
And we see whale games are not over yet.
Whales are trying to do max damage just today.
A whale deposited $340 million in Bitcoin and Binance in two different transactions.
After each transaction, Bitcoin dropped around $3,000 for a few hours.
Now, they do this with purpose, right?
They're not just playing around.
They're not just trying to buy a little teeny tiny $3,000 dip.
what they're trying to do is they're trying to trigger stop losses and clear out retail positions
and leverage before things rip, but could take a little bit. So my guess, and I want to know what
your guess, but I'll give you my guess on the bottom. You tell me what you think with a boost.
I think the 58K gang might be back. I mean, I think we could hover a bit above it. I think we
could hover a bit below it, but on average, I think it's 58K gang for just a bit. I mean,
that was our average floor in 2022. And when we hit the floor again a bit in 2024, it was 58K.
And you hear, you hear like 60K is around the average cost for the miners. So sometimes they
have to eat crap for a bit and it sucks. So I want to know what your price prediction is and
what you think of mine. Boosting. Also, here's the big ask. Is the four-year cycle still on?
Does this prove the four-year cycle is in effect or is it other conditions and we cannot yet make
a determination about the four-year cycle. I'll tell you what, I kind of like the idea of the
four-year cycle because Bitcoin's pretty unpredictable. So in some sense, it's nice
to have something you can plan on. And then at the same time, I hate the idea that as humans are
inflicting this cycle onto Bitcoin. You know what I mean? So boost and tell me what you think. Is
the four-year cycle still intact? And obviously, we're in a bear market for a while, probably till
October if that's the case. Or is this just a temporary thing? And tell me where you think the
bottom price is going to be. All right. Boost in. Let me know. We're going to have a lot to get into
next week. So I want to hear your thoughts, especially seems like now is the time to get
it on the record. So make it so.
well you could support the show just by doing what you do if you want to buy sats at river one of the
best ways to stack sats in the u.s use the link in the show notes no extra cost to you and supports
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what you already do.
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you, but what you can boost for your podcast.
Yeah, let's get into the boost because this is a value for value podcast.
No advertisers made possible by the audience.
And the goal here is to make the audience the biggest customer somebody could come along with the check and I could say no I already got a customer I already got an investor And it my audience Now Hodla Holla comes in with our baller boost this week
Is it Hodla Ohala?
I think so.
Probably not.
But this is a baller boost we're celebrating.
However you say it.
Check this out.
Brace yourselves.
150,000 sats.
Fun will now commence.
Thank you, Mr. Hodley.
He says, I was going to toss Twib 100 cuck bucks for episode 100, but assume, like me, you'd actually be happier having the boost hit during the dip.
Thanks for the value over the last year.
Bear markets might suck at first, but they always motivate me to stay humble and stack stats harder.
Sailor is right.
Volatility is a gift, and I'm starting to up my river supercharged hourly buys to celebrate.
I'd have to pause my hosted miners to stack even harder while the mining premium is soft.
Yes, buddy.
That's the way to think about it, too.
I mean, there is part of me that's like, oh, I would be, you know, probably a thrill to watch Bitcoin hit all time new highs.
I mean, there's probably no doubt about that.
And I do enjoy those thrills.
But to have another crack below 80 or 70K even, did you think we were going to get that again?
So, yeah, I thank Satoshi.
And I thank you for that baller boost.
put us on the map this episode.
Thank you very much.
And coming in right behind him,
another fantastic boost.
Chutoy comes in with another baller boost,
100,000 sats.
I hoard that which all kind covet.
That's not possible.
Nothing can do that.
Chutoy did.
He says, happy Bitcoin winter.
This is my first real winter.
I'm super excited to smash buy some cheap sats.
Boosting has been low lately, so I hope this helps.
I got my eye on a Bic Axe too.
So keep us informed about that Twib mining pool.
And if you ever travel as far as Georgia, I'd be down for a meetup.
I would love to do a meetup.
I think that'd be a lot of fun.
I definitely want to get to Georgia one of these times too, Troy.
And thank you for that baller boost.
And I really, really do appreciate that attitude towards your first Bitcoin winter.
these are the times that test convictions bitcoiners also have a saying you know you build
during the winter bear markets are for building and and it is very true it is very very true
thank you chew toy and i will keep you posted on that mining pool i want to i i want us i wish we
were doing it right now i wish we were already doing it you know what i mean gosh i'll keep you
posted he's a good guy he's a real good guy no he's a great guy hey mac jollers is coming in with
a great boost to 77,777 sats.
Fun will now commence.
Awesome.
This is a great episode.
Your insights matter most when prices down.
Well, thank you.
That's a very generous boost, Mac.
Just because when it's signal, the signal is hiding behind boredom and fear.
What really clicked for me is the wrong kind of hawkishness isn't a policy error, but a
structural necessity.
The system now needs hawkish language to preserve credibility while remaining permanently dovish
to survive. If that's true, Bitcoin is just a hedge against inflation, but the first asset designed
for a world where monetary truth and monetary speech have permanence, I think is what you're
going to say. I got cut off there. Mac, that is exactly what I was trying to say earlier. You got
it last week. Good job. Yeah, I think that is what's happening and the market's overreacting
to Kevin. I think Kev is going to get in there and Trump and him are going to play good cop,
bad cop and he's going to do what Trump wants. And I think Trump's already signaling like a mob boss
would what's going to happen. You know what I mean? Like he's being pretty clear about it.
So I just, yeah, I don't know, man. But thank you. Great insights. Really appreciate that
generous boost, too. JQ's here with 60,000 sats. Thank you for helping us help you help us all.
All right, JQ.
I have a BitX.
I'd happily point it at JB Mining Pool.
I usually get over just one terahash.
Regarding IRAs, I have a traditional IRA with Unchained that I rolled over there in April of 24.
I just couldn't bear having that value in anything but Bitcoin.
No regrets.
I currently stack weekly with Swan, but I'm debating swapping that over to River.
Keep up the excellent work.
Nice job, JQ, on the report there.
I appreciate the IRA reports.
I know IRAs and retirement stuff are a very personal thing.
So when people are willing to share those details to help other Bitcoiners, that's a high signal valuable boost.
Thank you very much.
Coming in hot with the boost.
I do appreciate that.
I'm going to keep you all posted on this mining pool.
We got to do this.
You hearing this adversaries?
We got to do this.
Regarding Swan, you know, I've used them as well.
They seem like they've gotten things together recently.
I do really like River and I like that savings account they offer too.
So that's something to consider as well because you can keep a little cash in there and do some big old smash buys from time to time.
If it makes sense for you.
That's, you know, that's your call.
But I appreciate the boost.
Thank you very much.
OB's here with 45,678 sats.
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.
Hey, OB, I feel like that might be a number, 45678, but I appreciate it.
Hey, Chris, this is when your show is actually the most important, when things are tough.
This is my first bear market, but I didn't think it would feel this intense.
Any advice for us in your experience with your first bear markets?
oh i'm just interesting that it feels intense
hmm i feel i don't feel that as much i have definitely felt it i felt it very very very
acutely after mount cox that's when i felt it the most acutely i thought bitcoin was done
it was very sad hmm tips for people that are feeling it intensely
well i mean honestly don't watch the price i know that's hard stick to high signal stuff
I'm not saying bury your head, but stick to high signal. Don't get engaged in all of the drama on
social media. People just, you know, they vent. They're all emotional as well. Emotional creatures
they are. And keep in mind too, this is a four to 10 year investment, right? Four on the minimum,
10 on the, you know, probably the more ideal for real returns. And so if you just look historically,
these things happen. And this is genuinely how people that are new have an opportunity to get in.
And this is how you distribute from people that don't really have conviction to people that have conviction, because you have to have diamond hands to hold through these moments.
And the next one gets easier.
The next one after that gets easier.
It's never easy, but they get easier.
I hope that helps OB.
And let me know.
And if anybody has any tips for OB, please do boost them in as well.
I'd love to pass them along.
Derivation Dingus is here with 31,620 sats.
Let's hear it good, buddy.
A first boost comes in. Hey, Chris, I haven't been to a Bitcoin meetup yet, but a Twib meetup would be a great first. I live nearby, so if it's local, I'll try to make it. And hopefully LinuxFest Northwest, too. Also, consider checking out PPQ.ai. It's similar to OpenRouter, but no signup required, and you get a 5% bonus for paying with Lightning. What? I'm going to check that out. Oh, no. I funded it with my own node, got it working with Goose, Blox, Agenda coding app. What? And I tried a few other models. Not affiliated, just heard about it on Bitcoin Audible. Oh, really?
He's been talking about Bitcoin Audible, huh?
Huh.
All right.
I see they got the clods and the Gemini's.
The Gemini 3 Pro preview is pretty good for this stuff.
No Chinese Kimmy, huh?
That's probably good.
That's probably fine.
Interesting.
They got Grok too.
Auto, huh?
Hmm.
That is interesting.
I had not seen that.
Thank you very much.
That's ppq.ai if you're interested in that.
API credits for hosted LLMs that you can pay for with Lightning.
He said, I just want to say again, Twib is my absolutely favorite Bitcoin podcast.
Personally, I actually appreciate these episodes when the price is down.
Your analysis always helps me get my mind right.
Wow.
Thanks, guys.
Jeez.
We're helping each other here.
I tell you, because the boosts are what keep me going and actually get me focused and motivated to the show.
And then helping you guys hopefully navigate this winter that we're going through.
Winter in winter.
How appropriate.
Thank you very much.
Appreciate that derivation.
Hope to hear from you again.
OBL918 comes in with a row of McDucks.
That's 22,222 sats.
Things are looking up for old McDuck.
And he says, Boosty McBoosterson.
This old duck still got it.
Thank you, sir.
Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee comes in with 9,000 sats.
He's a good guy.
He's a real good guy.
No, he's a great guy.
He says, appreciate you.
Keep up the fire.
Well, thank you, sir.
Appreciate you very much.
Well, I'll be dipped.
Thanks for boosting in.
Hey, Gene Beans here with 2,495 sats.
Put some macaroni and cheese on there too.
I'd absolutely attend a Bitcoin event, especially one hosted by, and he links me to a Nostropub that doesn't resolve.
Maybe means me, I don't know.
Or somebody else maybe.
So glad you decided to do the show today.
I always want to hear your take, even when it's macro news.
It's a lot of, you know, when Bitcoin's down, here's the thing, guys.
Here's the thing.
And I appreciate that, Gene.
Because when Bitcoin's down, it's not because of some issue with Bitcoin.
Right. It's not because of something went wrong. It's not because, you know, Bitcoin crashed, went offline. Right.
You know, that's what Bitcoin is often impacted by the world outside of it.
And understanding that helps us understand what's going on with Bitcoin.
And I think the reason why that's important is because you need to understand that the underlying thesis remains.
The underlying thesis is still valid. Right. So that's that's why the macro news, I think, is relevant.
Thank you, Gene.
Cardboard Warriors here with 5,000 sats.
Okay.
All right.
Oh, my God.
This drawer is filled with Froot Loops.
I'm all for Bitcoin events.
My very first one will be in Vegas, 2026, with my younger brother, who orange-pilled me.
Let us know if you make your way to the East Coast.
Oh, give me a report when you do go.
That's a big event, man.
That's a big event.
I would like to know how it goes.
Interesting feedback on the Bitcoin events.
Keep it coming.
Thank you, everybody.
Blazer 4151 is here with 4,321 sats.
This is a tasty burger.
Nothing but a salute.
I appreciate that.
Thank you for the value.
Ace Ackerman is here with a row of ducks, 2,222 sats.
I'd be up for a Bitcoin meetup.
If you make it out to the Northeast,
maybe it could coincide with a monthly Bitcoin jaw.
John in Philly.
Ooh, that's a great idea combining with another event.
Good insight there, Ace.
I need to get out to the East and the Northeast.
What I need is to either bring my kids with me or be patient and wait for them not to care about dad.
I'll just hit the road for like six months.
Just do a string of meetups.
The Bitcoin tour of America.
You know what I mean?
Thanks, Ace.
Northern Hoddle's here with 9,889 sats.
It's over 9,000.
Chris, many thanks and much appreciation.
Weeks like this are tough, we know, but we really appreciate all of your work to filter out the noise
and deliver the signal.
Regarding meetups,
I'm in favor
and would show up if near.
We have a great
Reno Tahoe group
with two meetups monthly.
The Orange Pill app,
now Club Orange,
to connect with people
all around the world
who are on the same
Bitcoin common ground.
Ah, good to know.
Okay, so Club Orange, huh?
I don't think,
definitely,
I've heard of the Orange Pill app,
but I don't think
I've heard of Club Orange.
Do they rename Northern?
That's good to know.
I'll take a look.
When I go on a road trip,
I should just pop that sucker open.
Go find some
like-minded individuals,
you know?
that's what I should do. I'm getting some good tips. Thank you very much. I appreciate that.
All right. Our next boost comes from SK8K8. The traders love the vol. I gladly drove seven hours
to Lake Satoshi Bitcoin retreat in central Michigan. Midwest camping at its finest because
of the people. It was in the Midwest and I would definitely road trip to your event. Thanks for
the signal and thanks for the optimism despite all the bears. All right, SK, good to know. And
I like it when I hear somebody is already
down to drive and has done it before.
This is the way. That's a good sign.
That's a good sign. Sloppy
Joe is here with 5,000 sats.
Little ship. Little.
You had kind of an interesting journey from being
pro-naughts to a more nuanced stance, which
I sympathize with. Did the whole debate actually
change anything? Any lasting effects, good
or bad? Or was it basically much to do about nothing?
Which predictions have proven right
or wrong? Sloppy
Joe, you know, one of the things I
I initially am for node diversification.
I think we should have multiple implementations of the Bitcoin node.
So I'm for Noughts, and I'm not inherently against a few maintainers
because they are repackaging something from Bitcoin Core,
which has several maintainers on it.
So it's sort of a stacking effect there.
So those issues around Noughts didn't really give me any pause.
But when they really started getting on the confiscation bandwagon,
like BIP110 and other things, they've really lost me.
I mean, that is just so anti-Bitcoin, I can't even.
And also because the changes in core, some were somewhat mitigated, others could be now mitigated with config changes.
The urgency to switch seemed to dissipate.
And I don't think any of the proclamations about Bitcoin turning into a child porn chain or spam taking over the blockchain, none of that's happened.
I mean, fees are low.
So the thing is, is with all of this, with the BIP 110s and the confiscations and the
ordinals, Bitcoin has an anti-spam mechanism.
It's called the fee.
If the fee's low, then the block space is available.
The network is available.
The market sorts it out.
And so I'm not a fan of proposals that seize coins.
I am watching them Nothing really major is moving but I am watching them Good question Thank you Sloppy Joe I really like following up on that stuff So keep me on my toes won you Please do Magnolia Mayhem here with 2 sats
B-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-S-T.
All right.
Yo, I heard this guy's falling.
Yeah.
Yeah, isn't it?
Yeah, be careful.
It's Bitcoin's losing all its value.
It's going to zero.
So watch out for that.
Moon Knight's here. Hey, it's been a while. We got ourselves a Spaceballs boost. One, two, three, four, five sats.
So the culmination is one, two, three, four, five.
In this episode, you talk about hosting Bitcoin meetups as you travel around.
If you happen to make your way through San Francisco, come check out one of our meetups.
We have several every month, and I run one that has a monthly cadence.
I don't think going to meet up is an OPSEC issue, just mindful about what sort of persons you're sharing information with and other attendees.
That is smart.
Yes.
That's amazing.
I've got the same combination on my luggage.
Good to know, Moon and Knight.
Thank you, sir.
Appreciate that.
Hey, Hybrid Sarcasms here with 10,000 sats.
Thanks for powering through and making an episode this week.
Kind of need you to show up to tell me everything's going to be all right.
Thanks, Hybrid.
well I you guys did it again you really did I uh I will admit I opened the thought doc and I
thought you know this is this has been a week where like nobody showed up I could just do like
a quick story and leave I don't know you know it's just we had a great boost round and what it is is
it really is that core principle that I talk about you guys are my big customer you're my big investor
if you will I don't know if that's probably not the right word to use but uh you're the ones I
want to please. And it is a genuine motivator. And I think content creators have got to get
their heads around this. It is a virtuous cycle, this value for value system. Because when I am
just in a funk, there is a system that motivates me to continue. And it's not a clickbait YouTube
algorithm system. It is a genuine exchange of value back and forth. It's really remarkable.
I, as somebody who's been podcasting for 20 years now, just hit my 20 year mark.
I know others have done it longer, but I just hit my 20 year mark.
This is the most fundamental game changer when it comes to content creation and podcasts are so uniquely positioned, especially with podcasting 2.0 and the apps out there to take advantage of this.
And, you know, the alternatives, they go dark.
They take content creators down dark, dark directions.
Thank you, hybrid.
Appreciate that value.
It means a lot.
Kiwi Bitcoin Guide is here with 16,912 sats.
Yes, sir, sir-de-sir-sir-sir.
Bitcoin meetups and events are the best.
Meeting other Bitcoiners in real life is like being reunited with old friends.
I attend meetups and events, and I even travel to some.
I would definitely attend a TWIB event.
Thanks for the quality every single week and the laughs.
Gotta keep smiling and stacking through the bear.
When sentiment is low, and man, it is the lowest I have ever seen it,
my happy place is deep technical rabbit holes.
When prices crash and the sky is falling in,
work on your skills and learn new things,
like running your own node or a self-hosted Linux server.
This week, I'm hardening my node,
and I'm learning about reverse proxies.
It really is the gift that keeps on giving,
and you don't have to get rich off Bitcoin
if you find some valuable skills
and you can hit the job market.
Yeah, investing in yourself, too.
That's it.
That is a great,
that is some of the best bear market advice right there.
That is, and then when things turn around,
you're in a better position, too.
Even if it's just educationally, it's great.
Hey, there he is.
Thank you for that boost.
I really appreciate it, Kiwi.
Adversaries 17 is here with 8,355 sats.
Let's hear it.
Good, buddy.
And Adversaries writes, curiosity question.
What is the software stack of your Callisto node?
You giving out my names now, man?
Oh, my.
Just pump the brakes right there.
It's Nix.
Yeah, it's Nix.
I believe.
Yeah.
Of course, I don't remember because the host names are not the same as the lightning display names.
And I have three nodes.
but I believe that one's Nick's Bitcoin.
I think that's the one that's Nick's Bitcoin.
Yes, I think that one is Nick's Bitcoin.
I have, that's my main node, my main personal node.
And I love it.
I know it's a little complicated for some folks,
but it is appliance level stable.
It is appliance level.
It is one of the most rock solid servers in my fleet.
And it also runs on a trash can.
It's pretty great.
So I really do recommend it.
However, I've heard really good things about Start9
and I still have an old Umbral node sitting around
and I have an Albi Hub.
So, you know, I kind of roll all the different ways,
I suppose.
Good to hear from you, adversaries.
Thanks for boosting in.
Still looking for that mining pool.
Let's figure that out.
Thank you, everybody who boosted in.
I see I got some boosts here below the 2000s at cutoff.
Thank you.
I'm keeping those.
I read them and I save them in the doc too.
This was a real barn burner episode.
I got to say, there's no bear market here at TWIB
and it really has motivated me.
It is a point of pride.
It is humbling, and it is something I take very seriously.
This is something we're doing it together, which is just as wild that this is happening.
Like something's happening here that, I don't know, man, it's pretty great.
And so I want to thank everybody who participated and keeps the show going.
It makes a huge difference.
Some of you streamed those sats.
In fact, 35 of you did.
Had a pretty good showing, too.
All together, you sat streamers stacked 45,094 sats.
Not too shabby.
Now, when you bring that together with our generous baller boosters and the messages that we got this week and all the SAT streamers, well, it gives us quite the showing, doesn't it?
We stacked a grand total for episode fifth.
Nope.
And 92.
Don't cheat myself.
Episode 92.
Grand total.
661,693 SATs.
make it so that's not possible nothing to do that
the traders love the ball
thank you everybody who supports the show you can do it with a jupiter.party membership if you don't
want a boost. Fountain has built-in
memberships that support Lightning and Fiat,
or of course you can send a boost to the show. That's
going to be a hard one to beat, but I hope
everybody can show up for next week and keep it going
because this is, every
single week, a massive job.
And the weeks where you
would think there's a lot
of macro news, so how hard could it be? No, no. No, no.
These are actually the most challenging weeks. But I don't have to
tell you that. I can tell you guys,
you guys already know that. That's really great.
Thank you very much, everybody. Appreciate it.
Now, let's get on with the show. We have
more to get into.
Well, it's Bear Questions for Mike time. CNBC has been talking about Bitcoin a lot recently,
and I've been sparing you. But this clip I'm about to play, it's important for two reasons.
First of all, they get a couple of things actually right. I don't know if they just
like they have an on-air realization. And it sets us up for the hardball questions they're about to
pitch at Michael Saylor when he joins them a few moments later. And what's concerning to me is that
the industry has not recovered from that October 10th record liquidation event, $19 billion in 24
hours, 70% of that carnage happening in 40 minutes, and the industry doesn't know what happened. And so
one theory is that a U.S. dollar pegs, Sablecoin, USDE, lost its peg. It had to do with leverage
being offered on Binance to the tune of 12%. And it was a washout in a day. Market makers were
taken out. They haven't come back online. And therefore, at $68,000, the smart money says what?
Well, at this point, retail is out of the trade. They've turned to prediction markets.
A lot of them got burned in October 10th. They're not coming back in. So when we talk about where
smart money is, it's institutional money in two different camps. The digital asset treasury
companies, all underwater. I mean, we talked about strategy a minute ago. We're going to talk
to Michael Saylor in a little bit. Yep. And then the second part of that are the ETF holders,
and they're staying on the sidelines. Everybody's underwater on their position. And part of the
problem while you're seeing these outsized moves is the fact that it's shallow liquidity when we
lost those market makers. So any kind of movement in either direction is bringing it up. The only
reason we are hovering in that 60K range is because there's a floor priced in at 60.
But that's the question. So this floor that's priced in at 60, who is supporting that floor?
So basically $60,000 is what it costs to produce a Bitcoin.
And so you've got the Bitcoin miners who, below that $60,000 point, they go out of business.
And so they are applying most of the marginal selling pressure.
So once you get them out of the markets and suddenly you hit this floor and also $60,000.
So you're talking about actual supply and demand.
Exactly.
And to that point, $60,000 is a point at which the percentage of Bitcoin in profit, it drops below the percentage of Bitcoin at a loss.
And so that's why it keeps bouncing off of that 60 floor.
That's really, I mean, you can look at it the same way you would look at oil prices.
It wouldn't consider it that way.
Yes, it's trading exactly like a commodity.
Like we're just seeing forced selling pressure during these liquidation events.
We're not seeing fundamentals driving the moves in the crypto market.
Does that mean it could never really drop below 60?
At this point where it is, especially with retail being out of the trade and it being so heavily indexed toward institutional, there is a stable floor there at this point.
And, I mean, we were having a conversation with Anthony Pompliano yesterday, and he made the point that this bear market is the best one that we've seen.
Usually we see a draw down to 70% to 80% from the market peak.
That would be in the $40K range.
So we're still doing better.
Last week when it was out at $60K, it was $50K.
What happens if it goes under $60K, for real?
And how long does it have to stay under $60K to be a problem?
Well, the first thing I'd look at is what's happening to your digital asset treasury names.
At this point, strategy, you can ask Michael Saylor about this later.
They're not just underwater on their Bitcoin position.
and their cost basis is $76,000.
They're a major driver of sentiment.
To your point earlier, Andrew,
that is so much of what's driving the trade.
So their long-dated debt starts to come due next year,
and they have a cash reserve
that's meant to support dividend payments.
But if there's an erosion of confidence with strategy,
that's a problem.
And then they start selling.
All right, so that's the setup
before they bring Michael Saylor on.
I think their insight there
about how it trades similar to oil is interesting
and the floor price of the miners.
Of course, the bit that they miss is that mining is a horribly, horribly difficult industry, and you can sometimes eat crap for an extended period of time where your cost to produce Bitcoin is above the market price.
And the ones that survive are the ones that make it to the next rally.
So Saylor shows up, and he gets the tough questions that CNBC only seems to ask during a bear market.
The concern, as you know, about strategy itself, to the extent that there are worries within the Bitcoin community, is that, you know, if Bitcoin continues to fall, and I know you've made the argument that you have enough cash on hand to handle this for the next two years, that there could be a moment at which you have to sell, not buy.
Yeah, that's an unfounded concern.
The truth is our net leverage ratio is half the typical investment grade company.
We've got 50 years worth of dividends in Bitcoin.
We've got two and a half years worth of dividends just in cash on our balance sheet.
So we're not going to be selling.
We're going to be buying Bitcoin.
I expect we'll be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever.
Just so we all understand, what is the price at which this story gets much more complicated
for you and therefore the rest of the Bitcoin community?
I think there's a sense that given how large a player you are, if if the price of Bitcoin were to fall to a place and continue to stay there for two and a half years from now and you were forced into a selling position, that that unto itself could create a cascading problem.
Andrew, if Bitcoin falls 90 percent for the next four years, we'll refinance the debt.
We refinance where, Michael?
They actually ask a follow-up question.
Because he always says, well, just refinance if it's an issue.
Okay, well, who's going to refinance you in that situation?
Problem.
Andrew, if Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we'll refinance the debt.
Refinance where, Michael?
We'll just roll it forward.
I mean, again.
But you think banks would lend to you at that point?
Yeah, because the volatility of Bitcoin is such that there's always going to be value.
Look, you're at 68,000 right now, literally has to fall to 8,000.
Then we just refinance the debt.
If you think it's going to zero, then we'll deal with that.
But I don't think it's going to zero, and I don't think it's going to 8,000 either.
But the credit risk is de minimis at this point.
I guess the bigger question is, I know you have a stock of cash that you can use to continue to pay out the dividends and beyond.
How long does that carry you through?
Two and a half years, Becky.
I thought you had some debt.
Two and a half years of cash, we wouldn't have to raise any money.
Okay, so that includes the debt due next year as well?
We have two and a half years of dividend coverage and debt coverage in cash.
We raised $4 billion this year so far.
We raised $25 billion last year.
There isn't credit risk to the company.
The story here is that the digital credit, STRC, is the most popular credit instrument of the decade.
It's trading 100 times as much as traditional preferred stocks, and it generally
It's two to four times the cash flow of any other fixed income instrument.
So that's the revolution taking place.
There isn't any credit risk in the balance sheet of the company.
Why do you think the stock's down 60% over the last year?
The company's engineered to be amplified Bitcoin.
So when Bitcoin goes up, we go up faster.
When Bitcoin falls, our volatility is higher.
We've created an asset that's got an 80 vol.
And so the stock falls because Bitcoin's been in a bear market for the past four months.
It's been an extreme drawdown.
But at the same time, you know, the other day we had a 25% increase in the stock price in a single day.
Our stock is more liquid, you know, on a market cap basis than any of the MAG7 stocks by a factor of 2, 3, 4.
The open interest is the greatest open interest of any of the major stocks in the market.
So that volatility creates interest, creates liquidity, creates the opportunity for us to issue the digital credit.
The dynamic here is interesting because the hosts feel obligated to ask these questions that are on the market's mind.
And it doesn't seem like even though they've been given answers, they're satisfied with these answers.
So that's got to be frustrating for Saylor.
Plus, he has to go through these questions every time there's a drawdown.
And the questions like right now intensify when the price of Bitcoin is below his average purchase price. When he's essentially upside down, the prices get harder.
Michael, can you help us with one thing? There's some folks in the community that believe that
Bitcoin community that believe that there is a floor on Bitcoin at around $60,000 because that
is the average price that is effectively the cost, I should say, for miners. And that as a result,
the arbitrage will always be around that price. I don't know if you think that's true or not,
or whether you think there's a possibility you could fall below that,
in which case what happens to those miners?
Obviously, for Bitcoin to be successful in this sort of decentralized world,
you need the miners to be mining.
Otherwise, the whole thing doesn't work properly.
I like the idea behind that question that, well, you know,
Bitcoin's below 60,000, so all the miners shut down.
Like all of us here that are listening are like,
yeah, I'd like to get a miner going.
Let's set up a pool.
Like we wouldn't just keep going, right?
I don't think he really grasps the nature of something truly decentralized, does he?
Miners, obviously, for Bitcoin to be successful in this sort of decentralized world, you need the miners to be mining.
Otherwise, the whole thing doesn't work properly.
If you're focused upon the price dynamics of Bitcoin, I think it's much more interesting to look at what the banks do.
Because as the large banks roll out credit against BTC and you see a lot of enthusiasm from Citi, from Schwab, from JP Morgan, from BNY Mellon, etc.
As they roll out credit, they're going to negate the miners' influence by a factor of 10.
Also, the embrace of large Wall Street firms.
I thought that was interesting.
He thinks as these credit products roll out on top of Bitcoin, like I was talking about earlier in the show, where they're going to package them up and sell them to boomers and they're going to sell them to Gen X and they're going to sell them to, you know, Zoomers on Robin Hood and millennials in between.
Right. I'm just I'm naming generations because these are the ones they name, but they're targeting different markets with different products.
And he thinks they're going to be bigger than anything the miners will ever contribute to the overall market dynamic.
JP Morgan, from BNY Mellon, et cetera.
As they roll out credit, they're going to negate the miners' influence by a factor of 10.
Also, the embrace of large Wall Street firms, the rollout of the next BlackRock Bitcoin income fund is going to have a big impact.
And, of course, the growth of digital credit that we're issuing.
We sold $7 billion last year.
We sold $400 million in a few weeks this year.
So the issuance of that credit on top of that network is going to be 10x the price impact of anything that the miners do or don't do.
They're really a third order effect at this point in the future of the network.
Real quick if you were to make a prediction about where Bitcoin is call it 12 months from now what do you think You know I don really make predictions over 12 months I think the Bitcoin is going to double to triple the performance of the S over the next four to eight years
And I think that's the only thing we need to know.
While we're talking about Michael Saylor, quantum computing came up a lot this week.
And he's pulling a move after a recent investment firm told their clients to, a notable investment firm, I should say,
told their clients to remove Bitcoin from their portfolio due to quantum risk.
So Saylor's doing what he did around Bitcoin mining environmental impact.
He's launching a superhero group of bureaucrats called the Quantum Defense,
and Strategy announced it this week.
Strategy, we are going to initiate a Bitcoin security program
that coordinates with the global cybersecurity community,
the global crypto security community, and the global Bitcoin security committee,
in order to help and contribute to consensus and solutions to address the quantum computing threat,
as well as any other emergent security threats that evolve.
We think it's reasonable and appropriate for us to do this, given our large responsibility as a Bitcoin holder.
but we want to do it in a very responsible fashion and we want to make sure that we coordinate with
the global cyber crypto and bitcoin security community because there are a lot of very very
brilliant minds here there's a lot of good work being done and and it's likely that consensus will
form and solutions will form at the right time and you know this slide's interesting because it's so
it's the top of it is titled quantum and our commitment to bitcoin security and then down the
left side it's bitcoin fud is inevitable and then it's got a long list one after the other all crossed
out in the bottom of the list quantum fud not crossed out and on the right hand side of the
slide our position on quantum computing number one quantum computing is 10 plus years away it's
promising but a nascent technology i thought that was interesting and you know this is what he did
with the mining consortium thing to help, you know, publish papers on renewable energy use
of Bitcoin mining. And I do think it made an impact. Another big bag holder, Arx Cathy Wood,
also seemed to have a rather reasonable take on quantum risk. She starts out by showing us
a chart that shows Bitcoin's quantum computing development progress.
What has happened with quantum computing so far? And Google really leading the charge,
that little black line on that chart.
And the visual of this chart, it shows the last few years,
and there's just a tiny bit of development.
And it's distance from cracking RSA 2048.
And the line essentially is still on the bottom of the chart.
So you can see that it has been able to double the number of qubits over four years.
Which is slower than Moore's Law in the semiconductor space.
And of course, there is an error rate consideration lowering that as well over four years.
So if Google does not pick up speed, the red line tells you how long it will take Google and quantum computing to really threaten the Bitcoin blockchain as we know it now.
So we go into the 2060s there.
Now, if you make the assumption that Google is going to pick up the pace, and that's an interesting assumption.
Before she goes there. So the base case that she just kind of glossed over is assuming they hit some problems.
2063 is when Bitcoin really has to worry. But for that to work, for 2063 to be a threat, there has to be kind of a big uptick in the early 2050s of breakthroughs in order to get to 2063 as a possible threat.
There is a scenario that Google likes to promote where something like 2044 could be more of a threat.
Because typically we learn a lot in the early years of a new technology You know how how quickly are the units increasing and driving costs down
That's the learning curve associated with new technologies. But let's assume it does pick up
the pace, doubles the pace to Moore's Law. Okay, then we have a problem in the mid-40s.
Yeah. So around the mid 2040s, if Google is able to double the pace and pick things up, we will start to have signs of it around the 2040s. That seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate based on the data available to us today. So, yes, it's a good idea to talk about it. But I wouldn't be telling anybody to sell their bags because of a risk that we might see show up in the 2040s.
You never know. And that's assuming they make significantly good positive progress, because otherwise it's more like the 2060s.
All right, it's time for our final clip of the week.
And for this one final clip of the week, I am breaking a rule.
I don't play clips that have music under them, especially for the final clip.
But this clip from our boy Jack got me pumped.
The guy is just on fire sometimes.
And this particular rant is one that is near and dear to me.
Bitcoin gets traded often like it's a tech stock correlated with the NASDAQ.
It drives me nuts.
And Jack hits the nail on the head.
It's because a lot of the people that bought it during some of the early Bernanke debasement trade days,
they don't understand what they're owning. And those that do understand just need to hold on.
Every dip is good for the longer cause of Bitcoin becoming the best money of all time.
All of us Bitcoiners knew at some point we were going to have to grow out of this relationship
that we have with tech. Bitcoin's always moving with tech. It's not like gold yet. It isn't
traded like gold yet. And that goes down to the people that own it. I don't want to give financial
advice on here. If anyone was questioning how early we were, we're so early that some of the
largest capital pools in the world still don't understand what Bitcoin is. The asset itself is
creating nothing. There's a cryptocurrency which might actually do something. And then there's one
which does nothing. I call it the pet rock, the Bitcoin or something like that. Bitcoin doesn't
need what companies need. That's a fascinating thing. Bitcoin doesn't need high margins. It
doesn't need buybacks. It doesn't need earnings. It doesn't need higher capex. It's not a company.
It's not a tech stock. It's crazy that I have to say this out loud, but clearly Bitcoin is still
misunderstood by the broader investment public. That's just a fact. Hang in there. Hang in there.
Get these tech software levered Wall Street junkies out of our asset class. Buy their dip.
If Bitcoin is capitalized and held by hodlers of last resort,
of people that are monetizing it, that are saving in it,
it will start trading like a hard asset.
It's never made sense that it traded like a tech stock.
It's because a lot of these tech guys got into it over the 2010s
in these large swaths of liquidity.
And now that there's a liquidity regime change, a lot of that's unwinding.
Hang in there.
Turn on your DCAs.
We are almost home.
Checking in on the state of the network, I am wrapping up at block height 936,112.
The price to U.S. dollar is quaint.
It's $67,800.
That puts our sats per dollar 1,475 sats to one U.S. dollar.
Although I remember when it was over 2000, so that was not too long ago.
We are down 46.3% from our all-time high, which was $126,180,
a long cold 128 days ago on October 6th, 2025.
Our difficulty retarget data set for February 20th with an estimated difficulty adjustment upwards of 10 10 Let go check in on the hash rate right now
Hash rate currently 957.3x a hash.
Nodes down slightly, 24,344.
Boys, go node up.
Go node up.
Something like 70% of the nodes are on the Tor network too.
It's really something.
Things are cooking right along, though.
Transactions are moving quick.
Fees are looking good.
Mempool isn't too busy, isn't too empty.
State of the Bitcoin network, it's doing just fine.
Well, I got that meetup in Pasadena on March 6th or 7th.
Haven't quite locked it in yet, but the details will be firmed up at meetup.com slash Jupiter Broadcasting.
If you're going to be at Planet Nix or scale or just in the Pasadena area in March, come say hi.
It's always fun to talk Bitcoin in person, as we just learned.
Of course, links to what I talked about and more at thisweekinbitcoin.show.
This was episode 92.
I hope this show did what it needed to do for you.
Got you the information to help you plan for yourself, your family, your business, your future.
Didn't get distracted by emotions and focused on the signal.
so let me know how I did with a boost
I want your bottom floor predictions
as well as your thoughts on the current state
of the four year cycle as well
boost those in
let me know what you think
and I'll cover them in episode 93
ticking the way to episode 100
I'm going to leave you with a value for value track
if you boost in during this song
95% of the sats go directly to the artist
this week is Take a Break by Fentile
Listen to me soon enough I'll get to take a break
Forgive never forget, always give never take
Let's all just wrap it up it's time to take a break
Smooth sailing only doing what I was told to
Making messes that can't be fixed until I break through
You're so hateful, I was only ever grateful
Promising to help but then you say your place full
Life is enlarged, yeah my eyesight is a looking glass
Glossy time, yeah, smoking on the devil's grass
Maybe it's time to stop thinking of the past
Take a break, I can't remember when I had one last
Take a break, yeah, take a break
Cunts speeding up, but they on the come down
Airpods in, listening to when I come around
I bet you thought you heard me off the Melbourne sand
But you never did, you saw me in the lost and found
Off to my happy place, with a water and a pill
Haven't been found yet, and I doubt I ever will
Stuck doing regular jobs, like feeling the till
It's an error with the industry, it's nothing to do with my skill
Tired of this shit, I'm ready to give up
People asking like I ever really even gave a fuck
Memories are days when I used to run amok
All good times, but man, blacking out, used to suck
I want that break, it's been promised a long time ago
Running out, taking anything just for a fussy boat
Still cashing in even though I just got a 20 note
Listen hang on man this blow reminds me of a song I wrote
Something about being famous we're all in the same boat
Asking for a break I say you're the goat
Maybe it's time to stop thinking of the past
Take a break I can't remember when I had one last
Promises they break before they're ever even made
Promising me soon enough I'll get to take a break
Forgive never forget always give never take
Let's all just wrap it up it's time to take a break
Take a break
Take a break, yeah