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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 92.

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My name is Chris, ChrisLAS.com, JupyterBroadcasting.com.

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This week kicked off with a banger of a macro story you might not have even heard about.

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A Bloomberg scoop revealed that Chinese officials have verbally warned their domestic banks to limit their U.S. dollar holdings.

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And they've confirmed over there at Bloomberg that some of these banks have begun trimming their exposure in response to these instructions.

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I think some of us suspected this was going on, but now we have Bloomberg reporting that confirms it.

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China, the largest strategic U.S. holder of debt for a generation, is quietly telling its banks, we want you to limit your dollar exposure.

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Shh, no official memo, just quiet.

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Shh, by the way, they're not dumping, they're not panicking.

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They're just diversifying.

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Well, that's exactly what you would expect, isn't it?

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You just see these kinds of things when you're rotating away from the dollar.

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Not a dramatic dump, not a big headline crisis that hurts everybody.

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They don't want that.

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Just steady diversification into gold and into really alternatives,

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anything that kind of moves away from dependency on Washington.

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We're seeing it right here confirmed this week that it's happening.

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If this trend continues, think about where the U.S. goes.

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If all of these other nations are piling into gold, what does the U.S. pile into?

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I'll tell you, there's one reserve asset that's neutral that they could front run this entire shift, and it's Bitcoin.

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so let's take a look at the macro situation for the world's most disruptive financial market

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because there was big news big news this week really came out this morning as i'm recording

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130,000 jobs created for the month of January.

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The estimate was 70,000.

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Wow, I was right, Maria.

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4.3% is the unemployment rate.

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The street was looking for 4.4%.

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This is not the kind of report we expected to see, guys.

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Let me give you the government jobs picture.

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That is negative 42,000 on the government side part of the equation.

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We saw that in the reports previously.

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We also saw labor force participation rate, 62.5 percent.

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Average hourly earnings, 0.41 percent.

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Oh, it's big news. It's big news.

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So here's what's going on here.

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The unemployment rate is down slightly to 4.3 percent.

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It was at 4.4 percent, and the forecast, we're expecting 4.4.

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So they got 4.3, and everybody's super excited.

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The official numbers show 7.4 million total unemployed people in the U.S.

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But that is higher than the 6.9 million reported a year ago.

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The interesting number in here is the federal government employee number is now the lowest it has been in 50 years.

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The financial press is so excited by this news.

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To say they're excited is an understatement.

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They're going nuts.

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They're bringing umbrellas and hats and props and celebrating.

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Say that nobody's going to rain on my parade.

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And these numbers are what they are.

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And 50K.

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I made this hat two months ago.

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So Rick Santelli is in the CNBC studio with a umbrella saying nobody can rain on his parade.

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And then he pops on a white Dow 50K hat because he's feeling bullish.

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These numbers are what they are.

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And 50K.

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I made this hat two months ago.

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And the reason I made it is for exactly a day like today.

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All these naysayers steeped in politics continue to be negative.

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That's OK, because 50K says you've all been wrong.

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You keep from going in the water, even though it's very hot outside.

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I say all the investment gurus out there.

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All right, you get the point.

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They're feeling a little hyped about these numbers here.

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But all right, it's good.

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But there's, well, a couple of buts, actually.

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The Truflation Independent Index reveals a different number.

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13,000 job drop to 143.1 million employed.

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They actually show a contraction.

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They suspect that it is highlighting a potential lag in the official figures.

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And I would say we often see downward revisions of these reports.

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And the initial reaction for Bitcoin was negative because if this report is true, it weakens the case for further rate cuts.

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And the market has decided that the fate of all liquidity lives and dies on the probability if we're going to have rate cuts.

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And then there's that whole Fed thing that's hanging over the market that is also jerking Bitcoin around.

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And man, is this frustrating to watch.

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And President Trump isn't helping the situation at all.

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When did you, in your heart and mind, when did you know you wanted Kevin Walsh?

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This is Kudlow on Fox Biz interviewing President Trump.

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So.

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Officially, it was two Fridays ago.

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Well, I made a mistake.

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He was runner-up, if you want to say that.

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He was a finalist.

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Yeah, he was.

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And I made a mistake because I had somebody that was my secretary of the treasury,

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wanted him so badly, so badly.

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And, you know, I didn't feel good about him.

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But sometimes you listen to people, and it was a mistake.

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What?

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The guy isn't even in office yet.

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So a couple of things are interesting about this.

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number one he's once again throwing scott besant under the bus here this is the second or third

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time i've noticed him do this number two he's saying it was a mistake before the guy's even

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gone into office so this is either a remarkable demonstration of trump's i guess put charitably

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ability to change his mind but or are we seeing a little good cop bad cop play out here is this

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is this some sort of is this i know this sounds a little conspiracy bacon so stick with me for a

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moment on this but i almost wonder if there isn't a bit of a wink and a nod between the treasury and

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the new fed chair nomination because they he worse put out some some post about a new accord with the

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treasury and working better together and i think part of that could also be trying to restore

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credibility around the fed so that way it's a more effective partnership and if that's true then trump

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making these statements would tell the market that he's not a puppet and it would be an attempt

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to restore credibility to the Fed. No idea if that's what's happening here. Or we are watching

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just incredible volatility in real time. Now, he does pivot the position later on in the interview.

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I didn't feel good about him, but sometimes you listen to people and it was a mistake.

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It was really a big mistake. But I think we're going to do something that's really spectacular.

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All right. So now here's a bit later in the interview.

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We should be at 15 percent if, I'll tell you, if our new head of the Fed, who I think is going to be great.

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So now he thinks he's going to be great.

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He's a really high quality person.

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But if he does the job that he's capable, we can grow at 15 percent.

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I think more than that.

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15 percent GDP would be pretty bonkers.

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Pretty bonkers.

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So that, obviously, not doing a lot for confidence.

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But honestly, I don't think Trump's comments, while they matter, I don't really think that's what's shifting the market around what's going on with the Fed.

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They're digesting what could be a much larger swing in monetary theory and policy.

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As I always say, for Bitcoin, it comes down to liquidity.

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If there isn't liquidity, you can't move a trillion-dollar market.

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It needs to go up.

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And for it to go up when it's already over a trillion dollars or around a trillion dollars, that's a lot more money than you and I probably have.

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And that's something Merrill Holdings CEO Fred Thiel has been thinking about, specifically in the context of gold and its performance relative to Bitcoin recently.

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Essentially, what I think we're going to see is if you look at pricing mostly in the evenings, East Coast time, you're seeing selling, which tends to mean it's happening in Asia and you're still seeing a deleveraging of Bitcoin.

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There's a huge derivative market that is very liquid around Bitcoin, even bigger than the spot market.

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And what that does is when people lever up, sometimes with 100 to 1 times leverage, and you get price moves, you get massive liquidations, we're still seeing some of that ending out.

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At the same time, you had gold as a momentum play all of a sudden.

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Gold, which has been sleepy, turned into a momo.

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And away it went.

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Silver followed it.

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And you had money go from crypto into gold.

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You had money already going from crypto into AI.

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And as AI lost a little bit of its luster, it moved back to gold again.

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And so it's all about these swings.

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And there's no swing back to Bitcoin yet as they're trying to digest this policy change that could be coming.

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And honestly, this is just a gray area we find ourselves in for a while.

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That's how I teased it. You have a number in mind. What is it?

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I actually think there's a reasonable chance we saw the bottom last week.

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This here is Bill Miller, and he is the, I guess, chief investment officer and chairman over at Miller Value.

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rich guy. And he says we're in the bottom area of the Bitcoin price range now because the market

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is sorting out this new policy. 60,000. And there's a couple of reasons for that.

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First and foremost, $60,000 is the cash production cost for a new Bitcoin. Okay. So what happens is

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when you get below that, the weak miners start going out of business, they shut down,

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and they're the main source of marginal selling pressure. So when the weak hands are out,

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okay, you have a less selling pressure and it's likely to put in a bottom.

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The second reason is Bitcoin trades on global liquidity.

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And if you look at when it peaked in the fall, it just so happened to be the exact same time that the Fed noticed huge stresses in short-term funding markets that effectively created an entire 180 on monetary policy.

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So if you look at what the Fed was doing in the fall, they were allowing $50 billion a month to go off of their balance sheet, just drain away.

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Now, what happened in December?

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They did a complete 180 on that.

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What they're doing is buying $40 billion net a month.

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So you've seen a net swing in liquidity from the world's largest liquidity provider to the tune of $90 billion a month.

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So you have this huge floor of liquidity that just came in.

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You've got the cash production costs there.

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And there's another technical element here, which is if you look at historical bottoms in Bitcoin,

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they've often happened when the percent of the supply in loss exceeds the percent of the supply in profit.

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And $60,000 is right around where that happened.

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So you have a whole bunch of factors converging at around $60,000.

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Okay, it's funny you mentioned.

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Well, I thought I'd have some good news for you around this.

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The White House was talking like there would be good news.

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Let's do a quick hit on the clarity stuff.

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You know, speaking of money flowing to Bitcoin, we've got to talk about this because it is impacting Bitcoin.

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I wish we didn't.

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But the White House, they were going to sit everybody down.

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Talk real tough and come to a final agreement on the Clarity Act.

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The theory being that once that happens, perhaps we'll see money come back in.

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We'll get to that. Stay tuned for that.

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But first, listen to this spicy clip from Scotty B, who I think is throwing Brian Armstrong of Coinbase under the bus.

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He's fed up.

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I think what we're seeing in the crypto market over the past few months means more than ever that the U.S., we need market structure.

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We need clarity and we need to get this across the line this spring.

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We got a few recalcitrant actors who said, well, it'd be better to have no legislation

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than the legislation we don't want.

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And I think both on the banks, the other crypto firms are united against them.

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So we need to get this across the line.

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The U.S., under President Trump's leadership, the U.S. is becoming the crypto capital world

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with our best practices, best regulation.

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and for crypto to remain a viable digital asset and move forward.

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We need to get this Clarity Act done.

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So it sounds like Scott's pretty serious and not too happy with old Brian Armstrong for saying

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no legislation is better than this legislation.

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And Scott's saying if you don't get this, you don't have an industry.

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OK.

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So you think it will be?

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It'll come back fairly soon then?

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I'm optimistic and there's bipartisan support here.

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That was U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with me on Sunday morning, future Sunday, optimistic that Congress will bring back the Clarity Act for markup soon.

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U.S. crypto and banking executives, including J.P. Morgan and Bank of America, met at the White House yesterday for a second time to discuss stablecoin legislation.

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Both sides failing to reach a compromise on the language in the Clarity Act, specifically regarding crypto firms' ability to pay rewards on stablecoins.

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Womp womp. Isn't it remarkable, though, that crypto legislation is headline news? It's really something. So there was no agreement reached, even though they try to bring them all together at the White House. The banks came in with a list. This was shared on social media of prohibition principles, and they pushed for a near total ban on rewards tied to holding, using and storing stable coins. Again, their main concern there is that you'll you'll switch your savings over stable coins and leave the bank.

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There was one small shift Banks showed a limited openness to exceptions if rewards were tied strictly to transactions So if you using the money I guess So if it not your savings I suppose So why does this keep getting tied back to liquidity flows for Bitcoin

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Why do I keep saying, even though there's not a lot in the Clarity Act that impacts Bitcoin directly, this is a drag on the global price of Bitcoin?

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Well, if you can believe it, the mooch actually has an explanation.

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Yeah.

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What's the price of Bitcoin?

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Well, I'm going to stick to the $150.

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$150.

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I'm going to stick to that.

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I think this thing will grind higher.

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And I think once that legislation does pass, it's going to open a floodgate of activity in the money center banks in the United States.

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And remember, that's the real circulatory system for global capitalism.

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And so this is a small asset class relative to the other asset classes that it should be compared to.

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Now, these things always get overblown.

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The reality will be somewhere in the middle.

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It will be the green light that the banks and the institutions that always follow the rules.

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I used to work for a bank, so I know how that goes.

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They're very, very, very careful about those kinds of things.

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They're going to wait until there's market structure to move in and create products around it that the boomers and Gen Xers who have yet to get in.

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And perhaps even the younger kids, they're going to be buying via Robinhood and things like that.

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They're going to create products for all these people where they wrap up the actual spot asset into some sort of corporate product that, you know, has a yield or something that it makes it attractive to them.

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And that'll be how they bring them in.

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But they're not going to get into that market until they have clear rules here.

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It's dumb.

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It's boring.

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But it is a major blocker.

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Well, pack it up, everybody, because it turns out it was a lie all along.

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There was never any value in Bitcoin.

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It's so funny when the price is down, the Luddites really come out.

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They always take their victory lap, not like they used to, because they know that Bitcoiners are keeping receipts, a.k.a. screenshots.

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But there must be an echo chamber of just the most substantial proportions over at the Financial Times,

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because they write the dumbest things and say the stupidest things when the Bitcoin price is down.

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And they have for years. It's tradition at this point.

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And this is a Financial Times journalist saying that Bitcoin is worthless.

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And she'll go through a couple of reasons that I have seen traditional investors really touting recently.

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And if you know any of these, if you are one or if you're related to one or a friend of yours is a traditional value investor,

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These are things they're really hitting on right now.

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So I think it's worth responding to.

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So, you know, you can be clear-headed when these things get thrown in your face.

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Sometimes they're so dumb, you just sit there like, what?

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Did you just say that?

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Where do you actually think its kind of value should be?

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No, I do genuinely think its value is zero.

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Now, again, this is the journalist from Financial Times.

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I think there is no inherent value to it.

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I think that it has this pretend argument that it has scarcity.

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But in fact, although it's true that there are 21 million, there's going to be a total of 21 million Bitcoins, there is no limit to the number of copycat cryptocurrencies, many of which can do more than Bitcoin can.

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So you have to keep making this argument that Bitcoin is the only one.

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That's the people who kind of push Bitcoin as the only one because it's the only way to claim that there is any scarcity.

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And basically what it's all based on is just belief.

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And it's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth.

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Right. So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow because it might be because I'm basically would be betting on at what point people people are going to stop to believe in it.

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And there are people who have a lot, a hugely vested interest in it.

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All right. So let's break this down a little bit because she's pulling out a couple of common Bitcoin criticism tropes.

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first one i'll just mention here is you'll notice they always do this is they try to bring up one

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argument and then they kind of roll and parlay into another reason that's also sort of nebulous

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and doesn't make sense but it's sort of like combining these two together makes their full

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argument they never just stick with the one okay i guess they don't know maybe they don't know it's

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strong enough you know because if you just think about it for a second like well does that mean the

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Mona Lisa is worthless because anyone can print a poster of it.

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Maybe scarcity isn't about copies.

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Maybe it's about the original and the network effect.

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Maybe.

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I mean, she really misses the network effect in this entire thing.

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And that's been the success key to any platform, tech platform, in real world platform, sports

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platform, the network effect.

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That's what makes things valuable in the tech industry on the internet and in real life

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is the network effect.

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Okay, so she has the – there's all these other cryptos.

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That's crazy too when you think about it because there's all these other metals, right?

256
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There's all kinds of different oils besides just crude oil, right?

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It just – it doesn't really make sense.

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But in fact, although it's true that there are 21 million – there's going to be a total of 21 million bitcoins, there is no limit to the number of copycat cryptocurrencies, many of which can do more than Bitcoin can.

259
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So you have to keep making this argument that Bitcoin is the only one.

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That's the people who kind of push Bitcoin as the only one because it's the only way to claim that there is any scarcity.

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So what she's missing there, too, is the sound money argument.

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She doesn't understand what makes something hard money and sound money.

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And so she can conflate Ethereum, which is a technology platform or smart contracts with Bitcoin, which is the hardest money ever created by humans.

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And you go to Google, just look up what makes up hard money.

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And it's Bitcoin.

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It's Bitcoin, too.

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It's the best version of that we've ever created.

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And so she's missing that aspect of it and can't differentiate that between all the other cryptos.

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But let's get to the one that I think you'll hear the most from the older generations and maybe people that have just read about Bitcoin.

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And that is it's only worth what people believe in.

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And basically what it's all based on is just belief.

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And it's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth, right?

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So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow.

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Now, she kind of has a good point in some way here, right?

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It is true.

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In some sense, things are only worth what people believe in.

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Value is a shared hallucination.

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So that's why I think we should hear this out.

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It's very hard to gauge what that belief is worth, right?

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So I'm not going to claim that it's going to zero tomorrow because it might be because I'm basically would be betting on at what point people are going to stop to believe in it.

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And there are people who have a lot, a hugely vested interest in it.

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People like Michael Saylor, who you just mentioned.

283
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Right.

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Just like there's people who have a vested interest in the government's paper IOUs because they pay their taxes.

285
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There's a utility there.

286
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So they ultimately do have a value, just like there is a utility with Bitcoin.

287
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Right.

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It's tamper proof ledger is unique.

289
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You can zap value worldwide without a middleman with very low fees instantaneously.

290
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You can't move gold like that.

291
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There is a fixed supply that isn't just a line of code, but it's baked into the issuance schedule and the mining and the nodes and all of it would have to be adapted and changed.

292
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There's no sovereign risk.

293
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There's no bank risk.

294
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And there's a network of millions of users around the world already.

295
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Those facts right there give it utility.

296
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Then you have the application ecosystem and the community ecosystem.

297
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All of those things bring it utility and value.

298
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But she doesn't understand any of that.

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They just get stuck in the system that they have lived in and it has worked for them for most of their lives.

300
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They understand debasement trade's a thing, but they just haven't wrapped their heads around the scale of the issue and the need for a digital store of value, especially for younger generations and people that can't buy property.

301
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She just, she isn't there.

302
00:21:49,038 --> 00:21:51,778
Their echo chamber, their milieu is too well off.

303
00:21:52,778 --> 00:21:59,938
Ironically, your buddy Tom Lee puts it in perspective by looking at gold and how much it's actually sucked as an inflation hedge.

304
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So if you ask me in 2026, I think gold is going to underperform Bitcoin.

305
00:22:06,498 --> 00:22:14,458
Since 1971, I've plotted gold's return versus inflation on a three year rolling basis.

306
00:22:14,638 --> 00:22:18,158
OK, and every time it's red, gold did worse than inflation.

307
00:22:18,558 --> 00:22:19,698
So this is an interesting chart.

308
00:22:19,698 --> 00:22:22,238
So this was at Consensus in Hong Kong recently.

309
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And Coindesk put this clip out if you want to go try to find his chart.

310
00:22:26,178 --> 00:22:30,158
And he's looking at a store of value property since 1971.

311
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And he's got it on here with this chart and he's looking at inflation.

312
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And it shows that gold has underperformed inflation, not 10 percent of the time, not 20 percent of the time, not even 30 percent of the time.

313
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But 48 percent of the time, gold is underperforming inflation.

314
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48% of the time in the last 50 years, gold has not stored value. It's done worse than inflation.

315
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And then since Bitcoin was created, Bitcoin has only underperformed inflation five months

316
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out of 160 months, which means 3% of the time. But in that same period of time,

317
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Gold underperformed inflation 44% of the time.

318
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So again, I think you don't want to lose hope in Bitcoin.

319
00:23:21,438 --> 00:23:25,938
It's been a better store of value than gold, even though gold has looked better in the past year.

320
00:23:26,618 --> 00:23:27,598
And that's it right there.

321
00:23:28,018 --> 00:23:29,038
That is it right there.

322
00:23:29,078 --> 00:23:32,298
And that's something you just got to keep in mind when things are a little shaky.

323
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And I have a question for you.

324
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Two questions, really.

325
00:23:35,498 --> 00:23:37,178
How low do you think we're going to go?

326
00:23:37,718 --> 00:23:39,658
Big Money wants the Clarity Act to pass.

327
00:23:40,598 --> 00:23:46,058
Market makers that are left are happy to eat up at low prices after getting just totally gut punched in October.

328
00:23:46,558 --> 00:23:48,618
And we see whale games are not over yet.

329
00:23:49,158 --> 00:23:51,418
Whales are trying to do max damage just today.

330
00:23:52,038 --> 00:23:57,198
A whale deposited $340 million in Bitcoin and Binance in two different transactions.

331
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After each transaction, Bitcoin dropped around $3,000 for a few hours.

332
00:24:01,998 --> 00:24:03,378
Now, they do this with purpose, right?

333
00:24:03,378 --> 00:24:04,438
They're not just playing around.

334
00:24:04,798 --> 00:24:07,538
They're not just trying to buy a little teeny tiny $3,000 dip.

335
00:24:07,538 --> 00:24:12,038
what they're trying to do is they're trying to trigger stop losses and clear out retail positions

336
00:24:12,038 --> 00:24:17,778
and leverage before things rip, but could take a little bit. So my guess, and I want to know what

337
00:24:17,778 --> 00:24:22,238
your guess, but I'll give you my guess on the bottom. You tell me what you think with a boost.

338
00:24:23,078 --> 00:24:28,738
I think the 58K gang might be back. I mean, I think we could hover a bit above it. I think we

339
00:24:28,738 --> 00:24:34,498
could hover a bit below it, but on average, I think it's 58K gang for just a bit. I mean,

340
00:24:34,498 --> 00:24:39,718
that was our average floor in 2022. And when we hit the floor again a bit in 2024, it was 58K.

341
00:24:40,438 --> 00:24:45,078
And you hear, you hear like 60K is around the average cost for the miners. So sometimes they

342
00:24:45,078 --> 00:24:49,958
have to eat crap for a bit and it sucks. So I want to know what your price prediction is and

343
00:24:49,958 --> 00:24:57,318
what you think of mine. Boosting. Also, here's the big ask. Is the four-year cycle still on?

344
00:24:57,398 --> 00:25:02,618
Does this prove the four-year cycle is in effect or is it other conditions and we cannot yet make

345
00:25:02,618 --> 00:25:07,238
a determination about the four-year cycle. I'll tell you what, I kind of like the idea of the

346
00:25:07,238 --> 00:25:10,678
four-year cycle because Bitcoin's pretty unpredictable. So in some sense, it's nice

347
00:25:10,678 --> 00:25:15,318
to have something you can plan on. And then at the same time, I hate the idea that as humans are

348
00:25:15,318 --> 00:25:20,678
inflicting this cycle onto Bitcoin. You know what I mean? So boost and tell me what you think. Is

349
00:25:20,678 --> 00:25:26,958
the four-year cycle still intact? And obviously, we're in a bear market for a while, probably till

350
00:25:26,958 --> 00:25:31,438
October if that's the case. Or is this just a temporary thing? And tell me where you think the

351
00:25:31,438 --> 00:25:36,338
bottom price is going to be. All right. Boost in. Let me know. We're going to have a lot to get into

352
00:25:36,338 --> 00:25:40,158
next week. So I want to hear your thoughts, especially seems like now is the time to get

353
00:25:40,158 --> 00:25:41,858
it on the record. So make it so.

354
00:25:41,858 --> 00:26:05,218
well you could support the show just by doing what you do if you want to buy sats at river one of the

355
00:26:05,218 --> 00:26:09,198
best ways to stack sats in the u.s use the link in the show notes no extra cost to you and supports

356
00:26:09,198 --> 00:26:13,798
the show. Same if you want to use the Bitcoin well in Canada or the U.S. They don't host the wallet.

357
00:26:13,918 --> 00:26:17,898
You do. It's an amazing self-custody Bitcoin platform. Now, if you've got sats and lightning

358
00:26:17,898 --> 00:26:23,338
and you want to buy something, the Bitcoin company, they only do Bitcoin. Sats, two gift cards,

359
00:26:23,498 --> 00:26:27,738
hundreds of gift cards in just moments. You don't even need a lightning or a login. You can log in

360
00:26:27,738 --> 00:26:32,938
with lightning, which is pretty sweet. Now, if you want to passively stack sats, the fold card makes

361
00:26:32,938 --> 00:26:37,138
that possible while you're paying your bills. It's time to get access to your Bitcoin. Salt Lending

362
00:26:37,138 --> 00:26:39,038
makes that pretty great. They got lower

363
00:26:39,038 --> 00:26:41,078
maximum or minimums or whatever

364
00:26:41,078 --> 00:26:43,078
than Strike. But what I like is they

365
00:26:43,078 --> 00:26:44,398
do have some pretty good

366
00:26:44,398 --> 00:26:46,618
margin call protection.

367
00:26:47,118 --> 00:26:49,078
So I have different options there. I think some of

368
00:26:49,078 --> 00:26:50,778
the other guys should follow what Salt's doing there.

369
00:26:51,118 --> 00:26:53,078
It's pretty good. So check that. I have links in the

370
00:26:53,078 --> 00:26:55,138
show notes. It's just a great way to support the show by doing

371
00:26:55,138 --> 00:26:56,138
what you already do.

372
00:27:07,138 --> 00:27:25,538
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you, but what you can boost for your podcast.

373
00:27:26,018 --> 00:27:29,458
Yeah, let's get into the boost because this is a value for value podcast.

374
00:27:29,458 --> 00:27:32,898
No advertisers made possible by the audience.

375
00:27:32,998 --> 00:27:46,076
And the goal here is to make the audience the biggest customer somebody could come along with the check and I could say no I already got a customer I already got an investor And it my audience Now Hodla Holla comes in with our baller boost this week

376
00:27:46,156 --> 00:27:47,496
Is it Hodla Ohala?

377
00:27:47,596 --> 00:27:48,096
I think so.

378
00:27:48,836 --> 00:27:49,476
Probably not.

379
00:27:49,996 --> 00:27:51,676
But this is a baller boost we're celebrating.

380
00:27:51,856 --> 00:27:52,736
However you say it.

381
00:27:52,776 --> 00:27:53,356
Check this out.

382
00:27:53,356 --> 00:27:54,276
Brace yourselves.

383
00:27:54,636 --> 00:27:56,856
150,000 sats.

384
00:27:59,556 --> 00:28:01,236
Fun will now commence.

385
00:28:04,076 --> 00:28:11,536
Thank you, Mr. Hodley.

386
00:28:11,596 --> 00:28:18,216
He says, I was going to toss Twib 100 cuck bucks for episode 100, but assume, like me, you'd actually be happier having the boost hit during the dip.

387
00:28:18,416 --> 00:28:19,956
Thanks for the value over the last year.

388
00:28:20,456 --> 00:28:25,816
Bear markets might suck at first, but they always motivate me to stay humble and stack stats harder.

389
00:28:26,216 --> 00:28:26,896
Sailor is right.

390
00:28:27,196 --> 00:28:31,956
Volatility is a gift, and I'm starting to up my river supercharged hourly buys to celebrate.

391
00:28:31,956 --> 00:28:36,396
I'd have to pause my hosted miners to stack even harder while the mining premium is soft.

392
00:28:36,976 --> 00:28:37,716
Yes, buddy.

393
00:28:37,956 --> 00:28:39,316
That's the way to think about it, too.

394
00:28:40,016 --> 00:28:46,296
I mean, there is part of me that's like, oh, I would be, you know, probably a thrill to watch Bitcoin hit all time new highs.

395
00:28:46,396 --> 00:28:47,676
I mean, there's probably no doubt about that.

396
00:28:47,956 --> 00:28:49,456
And I do enjoy those thrills.

397
00:28:49,956 --> 00:28:56,496
But to have another crack below 80 or 70K even, did you think we were going to get that again?

398
00:28:57,316 --> 00:28:59,096
So, yeah, I thank Satoshi.

399
00:28:59,176 --> 00:29:00,496
And I thank you for that baller boost.

400
00:29:00,496 --> 00:29:02,556
put us on the map this episode.

401
00:29:02,656 --> 00:29:03,596
Thank you very much.

402
00:29:04,016 --> 00:29:05,136
And coming in right behind him,

403
00:29:05,356 --> 00:29:06,936
another fantastic boost.

404
00:29:07,516 --> 00:29:09,496
Chutoy comes in with another baller boost,

405
00:29:09,596 --> 00:29:11,136
100,000 sats.

406
00:29:11,216 --> 00:29:13,656
I hoard that which all kind covet.

407
00:29:22,216 --> 00:29:23,536
That's not possible.

408
00:29:23,696 --> 00:29:24,656
Nothing can do that.

409
00:29:24,776 --> 00:29:25,456
Chutoy did.

410
00:29:25,516 --> 00:29:27,016
He says, happy Bitcoin winter.

411
00:29:27,136 --> 00:29:28,256
This is my first real winter.

412
00:29:28,256 --> 00:29:30,956
I'm super excited to smash buy some cheap sats.

413
00:29:32,916 --> 00:29:35,256
Boosting has been low lately, so I hope this helps.

414
00:29:35,616 --> 00:29:37,656
I got my eye on a Bic Axe too.

415
00:29:37,956 --> 00:29:40,196
So keep us informed about that Twib mining pool.

416
00:29:40,596 --> 00:29:44,036
And if you ever travel as far as Georgia, I'd be down for a meetup.

417
00:29:44,316 --> 00:29:46,236
I would love to do a meetup.

418
00:29:46,516 --> 00:29:47,856
I think that'd be a lot of fun.

419
00:29:47,936 --> 00:29:50,036
I definitely want to get to Georgia one of these times too, Troy.

420
00:29:50,096 --> 00:29:51,436
And thank you for that baller boost.

421
00:29:51,916 --> 00:29:56,436
And I really, really do appreciate that attitude towards your first Bitcoin winter.

422
00:29:56,436 --> 00:30:00,836
these are the times that test convictions bitcoiners also have a saying you know you build

423
00:30:00,836 --> 00:30:06,236
during the winter bear markets are for building and and it is very true it is very very true

424
00:30:06,236 --> 00:30:14,016
thank you chew toy and i will keep you posted on that mining pool i want to i i want us i wish we

425
00:30:14,016 --> 00:30:19,356
were doing it right now i wish we were already doing it you know what i mean gosh i'll keep you

426
00:30:19,356 --> 00:30:24,416
posted he's a good guy he's a real good guy no he's a great guy hey mac jollers is coming in with

427
00:30:24,416 --> 00:30:28,656
a great boost to 77,777 sats.

428
00:30:32,056 --> 00:30:33,476
Fun will now commence.

429
00:30:33,756 --> 00:30:34,116
Awesome.

430
00:30:34,296 --> 00:30:35,136
This is a great episode.

431
00:30:35,276 --> 00:30:37,396
Your insights matter most when prices down.

432
00:30:37,536 --> 00:30:37,976
Well, thank you.

433
00:30:38,016 --> 00:30:39,016
That's a very generous boost, Mac.

434
00:30:39,496 --> 00:30:43,116
Just because when it's signal, the signal is hiding behind boredom and fear.

435
00:30:43,116 --> 00:30:47,896
What really clicked for me is the wrong kind of hawkishness isn't a policy error, but a

436
00:30:47,896 --> 00:30:48,856
structural necessity.

437
00:30:49,336 --> 00:30:54,136
The system now needs hawkish language to preserve credibility while remaining permanently dovish

438
00:30:54,136 --> 00:30:59,956
to survive. If that's true, Bitcoin is just a hedge against inflation, but the first asset designed

439
00:30:59,956 --> 00:31:04,136
for a world where monetary truth and monetary speech have permanence, I think is what you're

440
00:31:04,136 --> 00:31:09,096
going to say. I got cut off there. Mac, that is exactly what I was trying to say earlier. You got

441
00:31:09,096 --> 00:31:14,676
it last week. Good job. Yeah, I think that is what's happening and the market's overreacting

442
00:31:14,676 --> 00:31:19,436
to Kevin. I think Kev is going to get in there and Trump and him are going to play good cop,

443
00:31:19,436 --> 00:31:26,116
bad cop and he's going to do what Trump wants. And I think Trump's already signaling like a mob boss

444
00:31:26,116 --> 00:31:31,896
would what's going to happen. You know what I mean? Like he's being pretty clear about it.

445
00:31:32,316 --> 00:31:36,456
So I just, yeah, I don't know, man. But thank you. Great insights. Really appreciate that

446
00:31:36,456 --> 00:31:47,776
generous boost, too. JQ's here with 60,000 sats. Thank you for helping us help you help us all.

447
00:31:47,776 --> 00:31:48,856
All right, JQ.

448
00:31:49,376 --> 00:31:50,416
I have a BitX.

449
00:31:50,696 --> 00:31:52,496
I'd happily point it at JB Mining Pool.

450
00:31:52,896 --> 00:31:54,596
I usually get over just one terahash.

451
00:31:54,716 --> 00:32:00,776
Regarding IRAs, I have a traditional IRA with Unchained that I rolled over there in April of 24.

452
00:32:01,456 --> 00:32:03,796
I just couldn't bear having that value in anything but Bitcoin.

453
00:32:03,796 --> 00:32:04,496
No regrets.

454
00:32:04,596 --> 00:32:08,176
I currently stack weekly with Swan, but I'm debating swapping that over to River.

455
00:32:08,316 --> 00:32:09,576
Keep up the excellent work.

456
00:32:10,096 --> 00:32:12,496
Nice job, JQ, on the report there.

457
00:32:12,596 --> 00:32:13,716
I appreciate the IRA reports.

458
00:32:13,856 --> 00:32:16,936
I know IRAs and retirement stuff are a very personal thing.

459
00:32:16,936 --> 00:32:21,876
So when people are willing to share those details to help other Bitcoiners, that's a high signal valuable boost.

460
00:32:21,956 --> 00:32:22,776
Thank you very much.

461
00:32:22,856 --> 00:32:24,336
Coming in hot with the boost.

462
00:32:25,016 --> 00:32:25,896
I do appreciate that.

463
00:32:26,356 --> 00:32:27,996
I'm going to keep you all posted on this mining pool.

464
00:32:28,076 --> 00:32:28,736
We got to do this.

465
00:32:28,776 --> 00:32:29,616
You hearing this adversaries?

466
00:32:29,696 --> 00:32:30,436
We got to do this.

467
00:32:31,276 --> 00:32:33,536
Regarding Swan, you know, I've used them as well.

468
00:32:34,196 --> 00:32:36,236
They seem like they've gotten things together recently.

469
00:32:36,536 --> 00:32:39,936
I do really like River and I like that savings account they offer too.

470
00:32:40,176 --> 00:32:44,916
So that's something to consider as well because you can keep a little cash in there and do some big old smash buys from time to time.

471
00:32:45,236 --> 00:32:46,416
If it makes sense for you.

472
00:32:46,936 --> 00:32:48,896
That's, you know, that's your call.

473
00:32:49,036 --> 00:32:50,036
But I appreciate the boost.

474
00:32:50,116 --> 00:32:50,816
Thank you very much.

475
00:32:51,696 --> 00:32:56,516
OB's here with 45,678 sats.

476
00:32:56,976 --> 00:32:59,856
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

477
00:33:00,136 --> 00:33:04,116
Hey, OB, I feel like that might be a number, 45678, but I appreciate it.

478
00:33:04,116 --> 00:33:08,036
Hey, Chris, this is when your show is actually the most important, when things are tough.

479
00:33:08,336 --> 00:33:11,756
This is my first bear market, but I didn't think it would feel this intense.

480
00:33:11,876 --> 00:33:14,656
Any advice for us in your experience with your first bear markets?

481
00:33:14,656 --> 00:33:18,456
oh i'm just interesting that it feels intense

482
00:33:18,456 --> 00:33:25,676
hmm i feel i don't feel that as much i have definitely felt it i felt it very very very

483
00:33:25,676 --> 00:33:30,816
acutely after mount cox that's when i felt it the most acutely i thought bitcoin was done

484
00:33:30,816 --> 00:33:36,176
it was very sad hmm tips for people that are feeling it intensely

485
00:33:36,176 --> 00:33:42,136
well i mean honestly don't watch the price i know that's hard stick to high signal stuff

486
00:33:42,136 --> 00:33:47,676
I'm not saying bury your head, but stick to high signal. Don't get engaged in all of the drama on

487
00:33:47,676 --> 00:33:52,836
social media. People just, you know, they vent. They're all emotional as well. Emotional creatures

488
00:33:52,836 --> 00:33:59,056
they are. And keep in mind too, this is a four to 10 year investment, right? Four on the minimum,

489
00:33:59,236 --> 00:34:04,296
10 on the, you know, probably the more ideal for real returns. And so if you just look historically,

490
00:34:04,836 --> 00:34:11,296
these things happen. And this is genuinely how people that are new have an opportunity to get in.

491
00:34:11,296 --> 00:34:19,276
And this is how you distribute from people that don't really have conviction to people that have conviction, because you have to have diamond hands to hold through these moments.

492
00:34:20,236 --> 00:34:21,916
And the next one gets easier.

493
00:34:22,476 --> 00:34:23,756
The next one after that gets easier.

494
00:34:23,896 --> 00:34:26,436
It's never easy, but they get easier.

495
00:34:26,936 --> 00:34:27,656
I hope that helps OB.

496
00:34:27,776 --> 00:34:28,276
And let me know.

497
00:34:28,716 --> 00:34:31,236
And if anybody has any tips for OB, please do boost them in as well.

498
00:34:31,296 --> 00:34:32,236
I'd love to pass them along.

499
00:34:32,936 --> 00:34:36,896
Derivation Dingus is here with 31,620 sats.

500
00:34:36,976 --> 00:34:37,936
Let's hear it good, buddy.

501
00:34:37,936 --> 00:35:07,836
A first boost comes in. Hey, Chris, I haven't been to a Bitcoin meetup yet, but a Twib meetup would be a great first. I live nearby, so if it's local, I'll try to make it. And hopefully LinuxFest Northwest, too. Also, consider checking out PPQ.ai. It's similar to OpenRouter, but no signup required, and you get a 5% bonus for paying with Lightning. What? I'm going to check that out. Oh, no. I funded it with my own node, got it working with Goose, Blox, Agenda coding app. What? And I tried a few other models. Not affiliated, just heard about it on Bitcoin Audible. Oh, really?

502
00:35:07,836 --> 00:35:09,176
He's been talking about Bitcoin Audible, huh?

503
00:35:09,836 --> 00:35:10,156
Huh.

504
00:35:11,316 --> 00:35:11,956
All right.

505
00:35:12,556 --> 00:35:14,596
I see they got the clods and the Gemini's.

506
00:35:14,796 --> 00:35:17,716
The Gemini 3 Pro preview is pretty good for this stuff.

507
00:35:18,556 --> 00:35:19,756
No Chinese Kimmy, huh?

508
00:35:20,376 --> 00:35:21,056
That's probably good.

509
00:35:21,576 --> 00:35:22,396
That's probably fine.

510
00:35:23,216 --> 00:35:23,616
Interesting.

511
00:35:23,776 --> 00:35:24,576
They got Grok too.

512
00:35:25,536 --> 00:35:26,296
Auto, huh?

513
00:35:26,476 --> 00:35:26,716
Hmm.

514
00:35:27,216 --> 00:35:28,016
That is interesting.

515
00:35:28,116 --> 00:35:28,936
I had not seen that.

516
00:35:29,036 --> 00:35:29,596
Thank you very much.

517
00:35:29,656 --> 00:35:32,576
That's ppq.ai if you're interested in that.

518
00:35:33,136 --> 00:35:35,896
API credits for hosted LLMs that you can pay for with Lightning.

519
00:35:36,516 --> 00:35:39,276
He said, I just want to say again, Twib is my absolutely favorite Bitcoin podcast.

520
00:35:39,416 --> 00:35:41,556
Personally, I actually appreciate these episodes when the price is down.

521
00:35:41,856 --> 00:35:43,456
Your analysis always helps me get my mind right.

522
00:35:44,096 --> 00:35:44,456
Wow.

523
00:35:44,756 --> 00:35:45,676
Thanks, guys.

524
00:35:46,196 --> 00:35:46,476
Jeez.

525
00:35:46,736 --> 00:35:47,716
We're helping each other here.

526
00:35:47,716 --> 00:35:52,216
I tell you, because the boosts are what keep me going and actually get me focused and motivated to the show.

527
00:35:52,296 --> 00:35:56,296
And then helping you guys hopefully navigate this winter that we're going through.

528
00:35:56,756 --> 00:35:57,636
Winter in winter.

529
00:35:57,876 --> 00:35:58,416
How appropriate.

530
00:35:58,796 --> 00:35:59,756
Thank you very much.

531
00:35:59,996 --> 00:36:01,436
Appreciate that derivation.

532
00:36:01,656 --> 00:36:02,436
Hope to hear from you again.

533
00:36:02,436 --> 00:36:07,356
OBL918 comes in with a row of McDucks.

534
00:36:07,436 --> 00:36:09,616
That's 22,222 sats.

535
00:36:09,756 --> 00:36:11,936
Things are looking up for old McDuck.

536
00:36:12,016 --> 00:36:13,616
And he says, Boosty McBoosterson.

537
00:36:13,676 --> 00:36:15,276
This old duck still got it.

538
00:36:15,296 --> 00:36:15,896
Thank you, sir.

539
00:36:16,716 --> 00:36:21,076
Lee, Lee, Lee, Lee comes in with 9,000 sats.

540
00:36:21,236 --> 00:36:21,836
He's a good guy.

541
00:36:22,076 --> 00:36:23,036
He's a real good guy.

542
00:36:23,196 --> 00:36:23,876
No, he's a great guy.

543
00:36:24,036 --> 00:36:25,096
He says, appreciate you.

544
00:36:25,316 --> 00:36:26,156
Keep up the fire.

545
00:36:26,256 --> 00:36:26,876
Well, thank you, sir.

546
00:36:27,036 --> 00:36:28,016
Appreciate you very much.

547
00:36:28,016 --> 00:36:29,296
Well, I'll be dipped.

548
00:36:29,576 --> 00:36:30,376
Thanks for boosting in.

549
00:36:30,376 --> 00:36:34,616
Hey, Gene Beans here with 2,495 sats.

550
00:36:34,636 --> 00:36:36,356
Put some macaroni and cheese on there too.

551
00:36:36,796 --> 00:36:42,976
I'd absolutely attend a Bitcoin event, especially one hosted by, and he links me to a Nostropub that doesn't resolve.

552
00:36:43,356 --> 00:36:44,496
Maybe means me, I don't know.

553
00:36:44,776 --> 00:36:45,636
Or somebody else maybe.

554
00:36:45,856 --> 00:36:47,196
So glad you decided to do the show today.

555
00:36:47,316 --> 00:36:49,296
I always want to hear your take, even when it's macro news.

556
00:36:49,716 --> 00:36:53,456
It's a lot of, you know, when Bitcoin's down, here's the thing, guys.

557
00:36:53,696 --> 00:36:54,496
Here's the thing.

558
00:36:54,996 --> 00:36:56,036
And I appreciate that, Gene.

559
00:36:56,456 --> 00:37:00,056
Because when Bitcoin's down, it's not because of some issue with Bitcoin.

560
00:37:00,376 --> 00:37:07,816
Right. It's not because of something went wrong. It's not because, you know, Bitcoin crashed, went offline. Right.

561
00:37:08,256 --> 00:37:12,976
You know, that's what Bitcoin is often impacted by the world outside of it.

562
00:37:13,036 --> 00:37:15,516
And understanding that helps us understand what's going on with Bitcoin.

563
00:37:15,876 --> 00:37:20,736
And I think the reason why that's important is because you need to understand that the underlying thesis remains.

564
00:37:21,156 --> 00:37:26,676
The underlying thesis is still valid. Right. So that's that's why the macro news, I think, is relevant.

565
00:37:26,676 --> 00:37:27,156
Thank you, Gene.

566
00:37:27,756 --> 00:37:30,816
Cardboard Warriors here with 5,000 sats.

567
00:37:30,896 --> 00:37:31,196
Okay.

568
00:37:31,416 --> 00:37:31,876
All right.

569
00:37:31,896 --> 00:37:32,536
Oh, my God.

570
00:37:32,576 --> 00:37:34,056
This drawer is filled with Froot Loops.

571
00:37:34,196 --> 00:37:35,476
I'm all for Bitcoin events.

572
00:37:35,556 --> 00:37:39,116
My very first one will be in Vegas, 2026, with my younger brother, who orange-pilled me.

573
00:37:39,736 --> 00:37:41,456
Let us know if you make your way to the East Coast.

574
00:37:41,776 --> 00:37:43,776
Oh, give me a report when you do go.

575
00:37:44,596 --> 00:37:46,016
That's a big event, man.

576
00:37:46,136 --> 00:37:47,176
That's a big event.

577
00:37:47,896 --> 00:37:49,096
I would like to know how it goes.

578
00:37:49,656 --> 00:37:51,176
Interesting feedback on the Bitcoin events.

579
00:37:51,236 --> 00:37:51,716
Keep it coming.

580
00:37:51,896 --> 00:37:52,376
Thank you, everybody.

581
00:37:52,976 --> 00:37:56,876
Blazer 4151 is here with 4,321 sats.

582
00:37:57,096 --> 00:37:58,876
This is a tasty burger.

583
00:37:59,036 --> 00:37:59,736
Nothing but a salute.

584
00:37:59,896 --> 00:38:00,616
I appreciate that.

585
00:38:00,696 --> 00:38:01,396
Thank you for the value.

586
00:38:01,756 --> 00:38:04,756
Ace Ackerman is here with a row of ducks, 2,222 sats.

587
00:38:05,876 --> 00:38:07,616
I'd be up for a Bitcoin meetup.

588
00:38:07,876 --> 00:38:09,056
If you make it out to the Northeast,

589
00:38:09,056 --> 00:38:12,036
maybe it could coincide with a monthly Bitcoin jaw.

590
00:38:12,576 --> 00:38:13,716
John in Philly.

591
00:38:14,236 --> 00:38:17,336
Ooh, that's a great idea combining with another event.

592
00:38:17,676 --> 00:38:18,736
Good insight there, Ace.

593
00:38:19,256 --> 00:38:22,016
I need to get out to the East and the Northeast.

594
00:38:22,376 --> 00:38:29,036
What I need is to either bring my kids with me or be patient and wait for them not to care about dad.

595
00:38:29,256 --> 00:38:30,996
I'll just hit the road for like six months.

596
00:38:31,856 --> 00:38:33,416
Just do a string of meetups.

597
00:38:33,996 --> 00:38:35,676
The Bitcoin tour of America.

598
00:38:36,396 --> 00:38:36,996
You know what I mean?

599
00:38:37,876 --> 00:38:38,556
Thanks, Ace.

600
00:38:39,016 --> 00:38:42,796
Northern Hoddle's here with 9,889 sats.

601
00:38:42,916 --> 00:38:44,636
It's over 9,000.

602
00:38:45,696 --> 00:38:47,276
Chris, many thanks and much appreciation.

603
00:38:47,276 --> 00:38:51,496
Weeks like this are tough, we know, but we really appreciate all of your work to filter out the noise

604
00:38:51,496 --> 00:38:52,616
and deliver the signal.

605
00:38:52,996 --> 00:38:53,516
Regarding meetups,

606
00:38:53,656 --> 00:38:54,416
I'm in favor

607
00:38:54,416 --> 00:38:55,436
and would show up if near.

608
00:38:55,776 --> 00:38:56,716
We have a great

609
00:38:56,716 --> 00:38:57,836
Reno Tahoe group

610
00:38:57,836 --> 00:38:58,956
with two meetups monthly.

611
00:38:59,356 --> 00:39:00,316
The Orange Pill app,

612
00:39:00,396 --> 00:39:01,296
now Club Orange,

613
00:39:01,376 --> 00:39:02,076
to connect with people

614
00:39:02,076 --> 00:39:03,596
all around the world

615
00:39:03,596 --> 00:39:04,396
who are on the same

616
00:39:04,396 --> 00:39:05,316
Bitcoin common ground.

617
00:39:05,956 --> 00:39:07,396
Ah, good to know.

618
00:39:07,476 --> 00:39:08,696
Okay, so Club Orange, huh?

619
00:39:09,296 --> 00:39:09,756
I don't think,

620
00:39:10,236 --> 00:39:10,516
definitely,

621
00:39:10,676 --> 00:39:11,496
I've heard of the Orange Pill app,

622
00:39:11,516 --> 00:39:11,756
but I don't think

623
00:39:11,756 --> 00:39:12,396
I've heard of Club Orange.

624
00:39:12,476 --> 00:39:13,356
Do they rename Northern?

625
00:39:13,736 --> 00:39:14,336
That's good to know.

626
00:39:14,396 --> 00:39:14,916
I'll take a look.

627
00:39:15,496 --> 00:39:16,396
When I go on a road trip,

628
00:39:16,436 --> 00:39:17,716
I should just pop that sucker open.

629
00:39:18,216 --> 00:39:18,776
Go find some

630
00:39:18,776 --> 00:39:19,716
like-minded individuals,

631
00:39:19,976 --> 00:39:20,196
you know?

632
00:39:20,196 --> 00:39:25,216
that's what I should do. I'm getting some good tips. Thank you very much. I appreciate that.

633
00:39:25,956 --> 00:39:32,696
All right. Our next boost comes from SK8K8. The traders love the vol. I gladly drove seven hours

634
00:39:32,696 --> 00:39:37,816
to Lake Satoshi Bitcoin retreat in central Michigan. Midwest camping at its finest because

635
00:39:37,816 --> 00:39:42,416
of the people. It was in the Midwest and I would definitely road trip to your event. Thanks for

636
00:39:42,416 --> 00:39:46,676
the signal and thanks for the optimism despite all the bears. All right, SK, good to know. And

637
00:39:46,676 --> 00:39:48,976
I like it when I hear somebody is already

638
00:39:48,976 --> 00:39:50,876
down to drive and has done it before.

639
00:39:51,056 --> 00:39:53,096
This is the way. That's a good sign.

640
00:39:53,276 --> 00:39:54,936
That's a good sign. Sloppy

641
00:39:54,936 --> 00:39:56,716
Joe is here with 5,000 sats.

642
00:39:56,756 --> 00:39:58,576
Little ship. Little.

643
00:39:59,296 --> 00:40:01,036
You had kind of an interesting journey from being

644
00:40:01,036 --> 00:40:02,976
pro-naughts to a more nuanced stance, which

645
00:40:02,976 --> 00:40:05,136
I sympathize with. Did the whole debate actually

646
00:40:05,136 --> 00:40:07,036
change anything? Any lasting effects, good

647
00:40:07,036 --> 00:40:09,196
or bad? Or was it basically much to do about nothing?

648
00:40:09,756 --> 00:40:11,076
Which predictions have proven right

649
00:40:11,076 --> 00:40:13,136
or wrong? Sloppy

650
00:40:13,136 --> 00:40:14,736
Joe, you know, one of the things I

651
00:40:14,736 --> 00:40:18,296
I initially am for node diversification.

652
00:40:18,456 --> 00:40:20,636
I think we should have multiple implementations of the Bitcoin node.

653
00:40:20,736 --> 00:40:24,436
So I'm for Noughts, and I'm not inherently against a few maintainers

654
00:40:24,436 --> 00:40:27,556
because they are repackaging something from Bitcoin Core,

655
00:40:27,636 --> 00:40:28,976
which has several maintainers on it.

656
00:40:28,976 --> 00:40:30,276
So it's sort of a stacking effect there.

657
00:40:30,796 --> 00:40:33,676
So those issues around Noughts didn't really give me any pause.

658
00:40:34,176 --> 00:40:37,936
But when they really started getting on the confiscation bandwagon,

659
00:40:38,216 --> 00:40:42,236
like BIP110 and other things, they've really lost me.

660
00:40:42,236 --> 00:40:46,016
I mean, that is just so anti-Bitcoin, I can't even.

661
00:40:46,896 --> 00:40:52,036
And also because the changes in core, some were somewhat mitigated, others could be now mitigated with config changes.

662
00:40:52,856 --> 00:40:55,236
The urgency to switch seemed to dissipate.

663
00:40:56,156 --> 00:41:03,496
And I don't think any of the proclamations about Bitcoin turning into a child porn chain or spam taking over the blockchain, none of that's happened.

664
00:41:03,596 --> 00:41:04,276
I mean, fees are low.

665
00:41:04,276 --> 00:41:09,556
So the thing is, is with all of this, with the BIP 110s and the confiscations and the

666
00:41:09,556 --> 00:41:12,436
ordinals, Bitcoin has an anti-spam mechanism.

667
00:41:12,436 --> 00:41:13,216
It's called the fee.

668
00:41:13,696 --> 00:41:16,756
If the fee's low, then the block space is available.

669
00:41:16,756 --> 00:41:17,996
The network is available.

670
00:41:18,276 --> 00:41:19,356
The market sorts it out.

671
00:41:19,356 --> 00:41:22,576
And so I'm not a fan of proposals that seize coins.

672
00:41:22,776 --> 00:41:35,194
I am watching them Nothing really major is moving but I am watching them Good question Thank you Sloppy Joe I really like following up on that stuff So keep me on my toes won you Please do Magnolia Mayhem here with 2 sats

673
00:41:35,794 --> 00:41:42,914
B-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-S-T.

674
00:41:44,914 --> 00:41:45,494
All right.

675
00:41:45,814 --> 00:41:47,334
Yo, I heard this guy's falling.

676
00:41:47,594 --> 00:41:47,874
Yeah.

677
00:41:48,094 --> 00:41:48,734
Yeah, isn't it?

678
00:41:48,814 --> 00:41:49,514
Yeah, be careful.

679
00:41:50,214 --> 00:41:51,394
It's Bitcoin's losing all its value.

680
00:41:51,474 --> 00:41:52,054
It's going to zero.

681
00:41:52,574 --> 00:41:53,534
So watch out for that.

682
00:41:53,614 --> 00:42:01,414
Moon Knight's here. Hey, it's been a while. We got ourselves a Spaceballs boost. One, two, three, four, five sats.

683
00:42:01,614 --> 00:42:05,794
So the culmination is one, two, three, four, five.

684
00:42:06,074 --> 00:42:09,474
In this episode, you talk about hosting Bitcoin meetups as you travel around.

685
00:42:09,594 --> 00:42:13,294
If you happen to make your way through San Francisco, come check out one of our meetups.

686
00:42:13,774 --> 00:42:17,514
We have several every month, and I run one that has a monthly cadence.

687
00:42:17,514 --> 00:42:23,934
I don't think going to meet up is an OPSEC issue, just mindful about what sort of persons you're sharing information with and other attendees.

688
00:42:24,314 --> 00:42:25,774
That is smart.

689
00:42:25,934 --> 00:42:26,214
Yes.

690
00:42:26,354 --> 00:42:26,954
That's amazing.

691
00:42:27,054 --> 00:42:28,694
I've got the same combination on my luggage.

692
00:42:28,794 --> 00:42:29,494
Good to know, Moon and Knight.

693
00:42:29,554 --> 00:42:30,234
Thank you, sir.

694
00:42:30,534 --> 00:42:31,434
Appreciate that.

695
00:42:31,834 --> 00:42:35,194
Hey, Hybrid Sarcasms here with 10,000 sats.

696
00:42:36,894 --> 00:42:39,134
Thanks for powering through and making an episode this week.

697
00:42:39,214 --> 00:42:41,854
Kind of need you to show up to tell me everything's going to be all right.

698
00:42:45,474 --> 00:42:46,134
Thanks, Hybrid.

699
00:42:46,134 --> 00:42:52,714
well I you guys did it again you really did I uh I will admit I opened the thought doc and I

700
00:42:52,714 --> 00:42:57,894
thought you know this is this has been a week where like nobody showed up I could just do like

701
00:42:57,894 --> 00:43:02,834
a quick story and leave I don't know you know it's just we had a great boost round and what it is is

702
00:43:02,834 --> 00:43:07,054
it really is that core principle that I talk about you guys are my big customer you're my big investor

703
00:43:07,054 --> 00:43:10,774
if you will I don't know if that's probably not the right word to use but uh you're the ones I

704
00:43:10,774 --> 00:43:16,714
want to please. And it is a genuine motivator. And I think content creators have got to get

705
00:43:16,714 --> 00:43:23,174
their heads around this. It is a virtuous cycle, this value for value system. Because when I am

706
00:43:23,174 --> 00:43:32,134
just in a funk, there is a system that motivates me to continue. And it's not a clickbait YouTube

707
00:43:32,134 --> 00:43:37,794
algorithm system. It is a genuine exchange of value back and forth. It's really remarkable.

708
00:43:37,794 --> 00:43:42,214
I, as somebody who's been podcasting for 20 years now, just hit my 20 year mark.

709
00:43:42,534 --> 00:43:45,054
I know others have done it longer, but I just hit my 20 year mark.

710
00:43:45,574 --> 00:43:57,914
This is the most fundamental game changer when it comes to content creation and podcasts are so uniquely positioned, especially with podcasting 2.0 and the apps out there to take advantage of this.

711
00:43:58,434 --> 00:44:01,374
And, you know, the alternatives, they go dark.

712
00:44:01,754 --> 00:44:04,094
They take content creators down dark, dark directions.

713
00:44:04,494 --> 00:44:05,014
Thank you, hybrid.

714
00:44:05,114 --> 00:44:05,854
Appreciate that value.

715
00:44:05,914 --> 00:44:06,414
It means a lot.

716
00:44:06,414 --> 00:44:11,074
Kiwi Bitcoin Guide is here with 16,912 sats.

717
00:44:11,194 --> 00:44:13,314
Yes, sir, sir-de-sir-sir-sir.

718
00:44:13,554 --> 00:44:15,434
Bitcoin meetups and events are the best.

719
00:44:15,694 --> 00:44:18,534
Meeting other Bitcoiners in real life is like being reunited with old friends.

720
00:44:19,254 --> 00:44:21,694
I attend meetups and events, and I even travel to some.

721
00:44:21,734 --> 00:44:23,394
I would definitely attend a TWIB event.

722
00:44:23,894 --> 00:44:26,054
Thanks for the quality every single week and the laughs.

723
00:44:26,654 --> 00:44:28,374
Gotta keep smiling and stacking through the bear.

724
00:44:28,814 --> 00:44:32,094
When sentiment is low, and man, it is the lowest I have ever seen it,

725
00:44:32,094 --> 00:44:34,554
my happy place is deep technical rabbit holes.

726
00:44:34,894 --> 00:44:36,854
When prices crash and the sky is falling in,

727
00:44:37,214 --> 00:44:39,154
work on your skills and learn new things,

728
00:44:39,374 --> 00:44:41,734
like running your own node or a self-hosted Linux server.

729
00:44:42,014 --> 00:44:43,314
This week, I'm hardening my node,

730
00:44:43,434 --> 00:44:44,994
and I'm learning about reverse proxies.

731
00:44:45,294 --> 00:44:47,234
It really is the gift that keeps on giving,

732
00:44:47,574 --> 00:44:49,114
and you don't have to get rich off Bitcoin

733
00:44:49,114 --> 00:44:50,554
if you find some valuable skills

734
00:44:50,554 --> 00:44:51,714
and you can hit the job market.

735
00:44:52,574 --> 00:44:53,914
Yeah, investing in yourself, too.

736
00:44:54,554 --> 00:44:54,914
That's it.

737
00:44:54,954 --> 00:44:55,574
That is a great,

738
00:44:55,874 --> 00:44:57,854
that is some of the best bear market advice right there.

739
00:44:58,674 --> 00:45:00,214
That is, and then when things turn around,

740
00:45:00,294 --> 00:45:01,194
you're in a better position, too.

741
00:45:01,574 --> 00:45:03,334
Even if it's just educationally, it's great.

742
00:45:03,754 --> 00:45:04,314
Hey, there he is.

743
00:45:04,414 --> 00:45:05,514
Thank you for that boost.

744
00:45:05,574 --> 00:45:06,414
I really appreciate it, Kiwi.

745
00:45:07,234 --> 00:45:12,374
Adversaries 17 is here with 8,355 sats.

746
00:45:12,694 --> 00:45:13,354
Let's hear it.

747
00:45:13,374 --> 00:45:13,754
Good, buddy.

748
00:45:14,194 --> 00:45:16,134
And Adversaries writes, curiosity question.

749
00:45:16,274 --> 00:45:19,214
What is the software stack of your Callisto node?

750
00:45:19,754 --> 00:45:21,574
You giving out my names now, man?

751
00:45:21,694 --> 00:45:22,114
Oh, my.

752
00:45:22,194 --> 00:45:23,454
Just pump the brakes right there.

753
00:45:23,794 --> 00:45:24,434
It's Nix.

754
00:45:24,734 --> 00:45:25,434
Yeah, it's Nix.

755
00:45:25,974 --> 00:45:26,334
I believe.

756
00:45:26,474 --> 00:45:26,654
Yeah.

757
00:45:26,874 --> 00:45:29,914
Of course, I don't remember because the host names are not the same as the lightning display names.

758
00:45:30,154 --> 00:45:31,154
And I have three nodes.

759
00:45:31,154 --> 00:45:33,914
but I believe that one's Nick's Bitcoin.

760
00:45:34,454 --> 00:45:35,854
I think that's the one that's Nick's Bitcoin.

761
00:45:36,494 --> 00:45:38,094
Yes, I think that one is Nick's Bitcoin.

762
00:45:38,654 --> 00:45:40,574
I have, that's my main node, my main personal node.

763
00:45:40,674 --> 00:45:41,814
And I love it.

764
00:45:42,134 --> 00:45:43,994
I know it's a little complicated for some folks,

765
00:45:44,114 --> 00:45:46,334
but it is appliance level stable.

766
00:45:46,574 --> 00:45:47,994
It is appliance level.

767
00:45:48,434 --> 00:45:51,674
It is one of the most rock solid servers in my fleet.

768
00:45:52,374 --> 00:45:53,934
And it also runs on a trash can.

769
00:45:53,994 --> 00:45:54,414
It's pretty great.

770
00:45:54,914 --> 00:45:56,934
So I really do recommend it.

771
00:45:57,114 --> 00:45:59,054
However, I've heard really good things about Start9

772
00:45:59,054 --> 00:46:01,474
and I still have an old Umbral node sitting around

773
00:46:01,474 --> 00:46:02,594
and I have an Albi Hub.

774
00:46:02,974 --> 00:46:05,674
So, you know, I kind of roll all the different ways,

775
00:46:05,734 --> 00:46:06,074
I suppose.

776
00:46:06,174 --> 00:46:07,354
Good to hear from you, adversaries.

777
00:46:07,714 --> 00:46:08,474
Thanks for boosting in.

778
00:46:08,874 --> 00:46:10,214
Still looking for that mining pool.

779
00:46:10,314 --> 00:46:10,994
Let's figure that out.

780
00:46:11,654 --> 00:46:12,814
Thank you, everybody who boosted in.

781
00:46:12,834 --> 00:46:15,174
I see I got some boosts here below the 2000s at cutoff.

782
00:46:15,414 --> 00:46:15,734
Thank you.

783
00:46:15,754 --> 00:46:16,334
I'm keeping those.

784
00:46:16,394 --> 00:46:18,614
I read them and I save them in the doc too.

785
00:46:19,034 --> 00:46:20,394
This was a real barn burner episode.

786
00:46:20,394 --> 00:46:23,394
I got to say, there's no bear market here at TWIB

787
00:46:23,394 --> 00:46:24,794
and it really has motivated me.

788
00:46:25,134 --> 00:46:28,794
It is a point of pride.

789
00:46:28,794 --> 00:46:32,734
It is humbling, and it is something I take very seriously.

790
00:46:33,214 --> 00:46:36,794
This is something we're doing it together, which is just as wild that this is happening.

791
00:46:36,954 --> 00:46:40,834
Like something's happening here that, I don't know, man, it's pretty great.

792
00:46:41,114 --> 00:46:43,834
And so I want to thank everybody who participated and keeps the show going.

793
00:46:44,014 --> 00:46:44,954
It makes a huge difference.

794
00:46:45,374 --> 00:46:46,354
Some of you streamed those sats.

795
00:46:46,434 --> 00:46:47,714
In fact, 35 of you did.

796
00:46:47,874 --> 00:46:48,974
Had a pretty good showing, too.

797
00:46:49,574 --> 00:46:53,854
All together, you sat streamers stacked 45,094 sats.

798
00:46:55,034 --> 00:46:56,394
Not too shabby.

799
00:46:56,394 --> 00:47:05,814
Now, when you bring that together with our generous baller boosters and the messages that we got this week and all the SAT streamers, well, it gives us quite the showing, doesn't it?

800
00:47:06,154 --> 00:47:09,434
We stacked a grand total for episode fifth.

801
00:47:09,574 --> 00:47:09,854
Nope.

802
00:47:10,134 --> 00:47:10,674
And 92.

803
00:47:11,014 --> 00:47:12,694
Don't cheat myself.

804
00:47:13,014 --> 00:47:13,994
Episode 92.

805
00:47:14,494 --> 00:47:15,174
Grand total.

806
00:47:16,214 --> 00:47:20,834
661,693 SATs.

807
00:47:26,394 --> 00:47:34,954
make it so that's not possible nothing to do that

808
00:47:34,954 --> 00:47:40,394
the traders love the ball

809
00:47:40,394 --> 00:47:51,914
thank you everybody who supports the show you can do it with a jupiter.party membership if you don't

810
00:47:51,914 --> 00:47:54,094
want a boost. Fountain has built-in

811
00:47:54,094 --> 00:47:55,674
memberships that support Lightning and Fiat,

812
00:47:55,894 --> 00:47:57,994
or of course you can send a boost to the show. That's

813
00:47:57,994 --> 00:48:00,034
going to be a hard one to beat, but I hope

814
00:48:00,034 --> 00:48:01,934
everybody can show up for next week and keep it going

815
00:48:01,934 --> 00:48:03,934
because this is, every

816
00:48:03,934 --> 00:48:06,294
single week, a massive job.

817
00:48:06,514 --> 00:48:07,994
And the weeks where you

818
00:48:07,994 --> 00:48:09,994
would think there's a lot

819
00:48:09,994 --> 00:48:11,834
of macro news, so how hard could it be? No, no. No, no.

820
00:48:11,874 --> 00:48:13,934
These are actually the most challenging weeks. But I don't have to

821
00:48:13,934 --> 00:48:15,354
tell you that. I can tell you guys,

822
00:48:15,474 --> 00:48:18,054
you guys already know that. That's really great.

823
00:48:18,154 --> 00:48:20,054
Thank you very much, everybody. Appreciate it.

824
00:48:20,094 --> 00:48:21,734
Now, let's get on with the show. We have

825
00:48:21,734 --> 00:48:22,834
more to get into.

826
00:48:33,574 --> 00:48:39,174
Well, it's Bear Questions for Mike time. CNBC has been talking about Bitcoin a lot recently,

827
00:48:39,274 --> 00:48:43,414
and I've been sparing you. But this clip I'm about to play, it's important for two reasons.

828
00:48:43,874 --> 00:48:48,034
First of all, they get a couple of things actually right. I don't know if they just

829
00:48:48,034 --> 00:48:53,594
like they have an on-air realization. And it sets us up for the hardball questions they're about to

830
00:48:53,594 --> 00:48:59,234
pitch at Michael Saylor when he joins them a few moments later. And what's concerning to me is that

831
00:48:59,234 --> 00:49:05,434
the industry has not recovered from that October 10th record liquidation event, $19 billion in 24

832
00:49:05,434 --> 00:49:10,974
hours, 70% of that carnage happening in 40 minutes, and the industry doesn't know what happened. And so

833
00:49:10,974 --> 00:49:16,634
one theory is that a U.S. dollar pegs, Sablecoin, USDE, lost its peg. It had to do with leverage

834
00:49:16,634 --> 00:49:22,714
being offered on Binance to the tune of 12%. And it was a washout in a day. Market makers were

835
00:49:22,714 --> 00:49:30,034
taken out. They haven't come back online. And therefore, at $68,000, the smart money says what?

836
00:49:30,634 --> 00:49:34,074
Well, at this point, retail is out of the trade. They've turned to prediction markets.

837
00:49:34,354 --> 00:49:38,074
A lot of them got burned in October 10th. They're not coming back in. So when we talk about where

838
00:49:38,074 --> 00:49:42,174
smart money is, it's institutional money in two different camps. The digital asset treasury

839
00:49:42,174 --> 00:49:46,554
companies, all underwater. I mean, we talked about strategy a minute ago. We're going to talk

840
00:49:46,554 --> 00:49:49,894
to Michael Saylor in a little bit. Yep. And then the second part of that are the ETF holders,

841
00:49:50,034 --> 00:49:53,834
and they're staying on the sidelines. Everybody's underwater on their position. And part of the

842
00:49:53,834 --> 00:49:58,134
problem while you're seeing these outsized moves is the fact that it's shallow liquidity when we

843
00:49:58,134 --> 00:50:02,614
lost those market makers. So any kind of movement in either direction is bringing it up. The only

844
00:50:02,614 --> 00:50:06,694
reason we are hovering in that 60K range is because there's a floor priced in at 60.

845
00:50:06,894 --> 00:50:11,054
But that's the question. So this floor that's priced in at 60, who is supporting that floor?

846
00:50:11,534 --> 00:50:15,414
So basically $60,000 is what it costs to produce a Bitcoin.

847
00:50:15,934 --> 00:50:20,974
And so you've got the Bitcoin miners who, below that $60,000 point, they go out of business.

848
00:50:21,154 --> 00:50:24,914
And so they are applying most of the marginal selling pressure.

849
00:50:25,254 --> 00:50:28,714
So once you get them out of the markets and suddenly you hit this floor and also $60,000.

850
00:50:28,714 --> 00:50:30,494
So you're talking about actual supply and demand.

851
00:50:31,194 --> 00:50:31,634
Exactly.

852
00:50:31,634 --> 00:50:39,334
And to that point, $60,000 is a point at which the percentage of Bitcoin in profit, it drops below the percentage of Bitcoin at a loss.

853
00:50:39,334 --> 00:50:42,014
And so that's why it keeps bouncing off of that 60 floor.

854
00:50:42,894 --> 00:50:46,434
That's really, I mean, you can look at it the same way you would look at oil prices.

855
00:50:46,694 --> 00:50:47,674
It wouldn't consider it that way.

856
00:50:47,714 --> 00:50:49,354
Yes, it's trading exactly like a commodity.

857
00:50:49,554 --> 00:50:52,514
Like we're just seeing forced selling pressure during these liquidation events.

858
00:50:52,714 --> 00:50:56,314
We're not seeing fundamentals driving the moves in the crypto market.

859
00:50:56,414 --> 00:50:58,214
Does that mean it could never really drop below 60?

860
00:50:58,714 --> 00:51:07,214
At this point where it is, especially with retail being out of the trade and it being so heavily indexed toward institutional, there is a stable floor there at this point.

861
00:51:07,214 --> 00:51:14,474
And, I mean, we were having a conversation with Anthony Pompliano yesterday, and he made the point that this bear market is the best one that we've seen.

862
00:51:14,554 --> 00:51:17,934
Usually we see a draw down to 70% to 80% from the market peak.

863
00:51:18,014 --> 00:51:19,214
That would be in the $40K range.

864
00:51:19,294 --> 00:51:20,734
So we're still doing better.

865
00:51:21,154 --> 00:51:22,674
Last week when it was out at $60K, it was $50K.

866
00:51:22,674 --> 00:51:24,514
What happens if it goes under $60K, for real?

867
00:51:24,754 --> 00:51:26,554
And how long does it have to stay under $60K to be a problem?

868
00:51:26,814 --> 00:51:30,054
Well, the first thing I'd look at is what's happening to your digital asset treasury names.

869
00:51:30,294 --> 00:51:33,354
At this point, strategy, you can ask Michael Saylor about this later.

870
00:51:33,794 --> 00:51:35,814
They're not just underwater on their Bitcoin position.

871
00:51:35,814 --> 00:51:38,114
and their cost basis is $76,000.

872
00:51:38,594 --> 00:51:40,054
They're a major driver of sentiment.

873
00:51:40,214 --> 00:51:41,254
To your point earlier, Andrew,

874
00:51:41,354 --> 00:51:43,934
that is so much of what's driving the trade.

875
00:51:44,294 --> 00:51:47,874
So their long-dated debt starts to come due next year,

876
00:51:48,174 --> 00:51:49,574
and they have a cash reserve

877
00:51:49,574 --> 00:51:51,114
that's meant to support dividend payments.

878
00:51:51,294 --> 00:51:53,594
But if there's an erosion of confidence with strategy,

879
00:51:53,794 --> 00:51:54,514
that's a problem.

880
00:51:54,534 --> 00:51:55,434
And then they start selling.

881
00:51:55,434 --> 00:51:56,634
All right, so that's the setup

882
00:51:56,634 --> 00:51:58,394
before they bring Michael Saylor on.

883
00:51:59,054 --> 00:52:00,294
I think their insight there

884
00:52:00,294 --> 00:52:02,954
about how it trades similar to oil is interesting

885
00:52:02,954 --> 00:52:04,634
and the floor price of the miners.

886
00:52:04,634 --> 00:52:16,894
Of course, the bit that they miss is that mining is a horribly, horribly difficult industry, and you can sometimes eat crap for an extended period of time where your cost to produce Bitcoin is above the market price.

887
00:52:17,074 --> 00:52:20,614
And the ones that survive are the ones that make it to the next rally.

888
00:52:21,054 --> 00:52:27,174
So Saylor shows up, and he gets the tough questions that CNBC only seems to ask during a bear market.

889
00:52:27,654 --> 00:52:47,034
The concern, as you know, about strategy itself, to the extent that there are worries within the Bitcoin community, is that, you know, if Bitcoin continues to fall, and I know you've made the argument that you have enough cash on hand to handle this for the next two years, that there could be a moment at which you have to sell, not buy.

890
00:52:48,034 --> 00:52:49,794
Yeah, that's an unfounded concern.

891
00:52:49,974 --> 00:52:54,934
The truth is our net leverage ratio is half the typical investment grade company.

892
00:52:55,454 --> 00:52:58,594
We've got 50 years worth of dividends in Bitcoin.

893
00:52:58,914 --> 00:53:03,514
We've got two and a half years worth of dividends just in cash on our balance sheet.

894
00:53:04,074 --> 00:53:05,854
So we're not going to be selling.

895
00:53:06,214 --> 00:53:07,734
We're going to be buying Bitcoin.

896
00:53:08,114 --> 00:53:11,054
I expect we'll be buying Bitcoin every quarter forever.

897
00:53:11,734 --> 00:53:18,894
Just so we all understand, what is the price at which this story gets much more complicated

898
00:53:18,894 --> 00:53:21,554
for you and therefore the rest of the Bitcoin community?

899
00:53:21,554 --> 00:53:39,134
I think there's a sense that given how large a player you are, if if the price of Bitcoin were to fall to a place and continue to stay there for two and a half years from now and you were forced into a selling position, that that unto itself could create a cascading problem.

900
00:53:39,934 --> 00:53:44,674
Andrew, if Bitcoin falls 90 percent for the next four years, we'll refinance the debt.

901
00:53:45,654 --> 00:53:46,914
We refinance where, Michael?

902
00:53:47,554 --> 00:53:49,394
They actually ask a follow-up question.

903
00:53:50,114 --> 00:53:52,454
Because he always says, well, just refinance if it's an issue.

904
00:53:52,554 --> 00:53:54,574
Okay, well, who's going to refinance you in that situation?

905
00:53:54,734 --> 00:53:55,014
Problem.

906
00:53:55,834 --> 00:54:00,594
Andrew, if Bitcoin falls 90% for the next four years, we'll refinance the debt.

907
00:54:01,674 --> 00:54:02,654
Refinance where, Michael?

908
00:54:03,634 --> 00:54:05,154
We'll just roll it forward.

909
00:54:05,794 --> 00:54:06,314
I mean, again.

910
00:54:06,314 --> 00:54:09,074
But you think banks would lend to you at that point?

911
00:54:10,034 --> 00:54:15,114
Yeah, because the volatility of Bitcoin is such that there's always going to be value.

912
00:54:15,674 --> 00:54:19,354
Look, you're at 68,000 right now, literally has to fall to 8,000.

913
00:54:19,454 --> 00:54:20,874
Then we just refinance the debt.

914
00:54:21,454 --> 00:54:24,194
If you think it's going to zero, then we'll deal with that.

915
00:54:24,254 --> 00:54:27,474
But I don't think it's going to zero, and I don't think it's going to 8,000 either.

916
00:54:27,734 --> 00:54:30,334
But the credit risk is de minimis at this point.

917
00:54:31,134 --> 00:54:38,174
I guess the bigger question is, I know you have a stock of cash that you can use to continue to pay out the dividends and beyond.

918
00:54:39,234 --> 00:54:41,034
How long does that carry you through?

919
00:54:41,854 --> 00:54:43,094
Two and a half years, Becky.

920
00:54:43,414 --> 00:54:44,294
I thought you had some debt.

921
00:54:44,294 --> 00:54:46,974
Two and a half years of cash, we wouldn't have to raise any money.

922
00:54:47,494 --> 00:54:50,854
Okay, so that includes the debt due next year as well?

923
00:54:51,654 --> 00:54:57,334
We have two and a half years of dividend coverage and debt coverage in cash.

924
00:54:58,094 --> 00:55:00,614
We raised $4 billion this year so far.

925
00:55:00,674 --> 00:55:02,634
We raised $25 billion last year.

926
00:55:03,194 --> 00:55:05,174
There isn't credit risk to the company.

927
00:55:05,174 --> 00:55:12,714
The story here is that the digital credit, STRC, is the most popular credit instrument of the decade.

928
00:55:12,714 --> 00:55:18,114
It's trading 100 times as much as traditional preferred stocks, and it generally

929
00:55:18,152 --> 00:55:22,272
It's two to four times the cash flow of any other fixed income instrument.

930
00:55:22,552 --> 00:55:25,132
So that's the revolution taking place.

931
00:55:25,512 --> 00:55:27,872
There isn't any credit risk in the balance sheet of the company.

932
00:55:28,472 --> 00:55:31,112
Why do you think the stock's down 60% over the last year?

933
00:55:32,012 --> 00:55:35,152
The company's engineered to be amplified Bitcoin.

934
00:55:35,152 --> 00:55:38,332
So when Bitcoin goes up, we go up faster.

935
00:55:38,472 --> 00:55:40,672
When Bitcoin falls, our volatility is higher.

936
00:55:41,172 --> 00:55:44,232
We've created an asset that's got an 80 vol.

937
00:55:44,232 --> 00:55:49,012
And so the stock falls because Bitcoin's been in a bear market for the past four months.

938
00:55:49,132 --> 00:55:50,572
It's been an extreme drawdown.

939
00:55:51,172 --> 00:55:56,572
But at the same time, you know, the other day we had a 25% increase in the stock price in a single day.

940
00:55:57,292 --> 00:56:05,032
Our stock is more liquid, you know, on a market cap basis than any of the MAG7 stocks by a factor of 2, 3, 4.

941
00:56:05,452 --> 00:56:10,332
The open interest is the greatest open interest of any of the major stocks in the market.

942
00:56:10,332 --> 00:56:17,652
So that volatility creates interest, creates liquidity, creates the opportunity for us to issue the digital credit.

943
00:56:18,252 --> 00:56:23,792
The dynamic here is interesting because the hosts feel obligated to ask these questions that are on the market's mind.

944
00:56:23,932 --> 00:56:28,872
And it doesn't seem like even though they've been given answers, they're satisfied with these answers.

945
00:56:28,952 --> 00:56:30,552
So that's got to be frustrating for Saylor.

946
00:56:30,972 --> 00:56:34,692
Plus, he has to go through these questions every time there's a drawdown.

947
00:56:34,692 --> 00:56:44,912
And the questions like right now intensify when the price of Bitcoin is below his average purchase price. When he's essentially upside down, the prices get harder.

948
00:56:44,912 --> 00:56:51,612
Michael, can you help us with one thing? There's some folks in the community that believe that

949
00:56:51,612 --> 00:56:58,332
Bitcoin community that believe that there is a floor on Bitcoin at around $60,000 because that

950
00:56:58,332 --> 00:57:06,292
is the average price that is effectively the cost, I should say, for miners. And that as a result,

951
00:57:07,132 --> 00:57:12,672
the arbitrage will always be around that price. I don't know if you think that's true or not,

952
00:57:12,672 --> 00:57:16,092
or whether you think there's a possibility you could fall below that,

953
00:57:16,132 --> 00:57:18,392
in which case what happens to those miners?

954
00:57:18,672 --> 00:57:23,232
Obviously, for Bitcoin to be successful in this sort of decentralized world,

955
00:57:23,832 --> 00:57:25,352
you need the miners to be mining.

956
00:57:25,812 --> 00:57:27,812
Otherwise, the whole thing doesn't work properly.

957
00:57:28,652 --> 00:57:32,072
I like the idea behind that question that, well, you know,

958
00:57:32,112 --> 00:57:35,572
Bitcoin's below 60,000, so all the miners shut down.

959
00:57:36,212 --> 00:57:38,172
Like all of us here that are listening are like,

960
00:57:38,212 --> 00:57:39,232
yeah, I'd like to get a miner going.

961
00:57:39,332 --> 00:57:39,952
Let's set up a pool.

962
00:57:40,072 --> 00:57:41,892
Like we wouldn't just keep going, right?

963
00:57:42,672 --> 00:57:46,592
I don't think he really grasps the nature of something truly decentralized, does he?

964
00:57:46,592 --> 00:57:53,912
Miners, obviously, for Bitcoin to be successful in this sort of decentralized world, you need the miners to be mining.

965
00:57:54,392 --> 00:57:56,372
Otherwise, the whole thing doesn't work properly.

966
00:57:56,952 --> 00:58:02,772
If you're focused upon the price dynamics of Bitcoin, I think it's much more interesting to look at what the banks do.

967
00:58:02,772 --> 00:58:15,192
Because as the large banks roll out credit against BTC and you see a lot of enthusiasm from Citi, from Schwab, from JP Morgan, from BNY Mellon, etc.

968
00:58:15,432 --> 00:58:20,852
As they roll out credit, they're going to negate the miners' influence by a factor of 10.

969
00:58:21,452 --> 00:58:24,052
Also, the embrace of large Wall Street firms.

970
00:58:24,352 --> 00:58:25,272
I thought that was interesting.

971
00:58:25,272 --> 00:58:38,532
He thinks as these credit products roll out on top of Bitcoin, like I was talking about earlier in the show, where they're going to package them up and sell them to boomers and they're going to sell them to Gen X and they're going to sell them to, you know, Zoomers on Robin Hood and millennials in between.

972
00:58:38,652 --> 00:58:44,912
Right. I'm just I'm naming generations because these are the ones they name, but they're targeting different markets with different products.

973
00:58:44,912 --> 00:58:51,512
And he thinks they're going to be bigger than anything the miners will ever contribute to the overall market dynamic.

974
00:58:51,512 --> 00:58:55,392
JP Morgan, from BNY Mellon, et cetera.

975
00:58:55,692 --> 00:59:00,952
As they roll out credit, they're going to negate the miners' influence by a factor of 10.

976
00:59:01,512 --> 00:59:08,232
Also, the embrace of large Wall Street firms, the rollout of the next BlackRock Bitcoin income fund is going to have a big impact.

977
00:59:08,772 --> 00:59:11,332
And, of course, the growth of digital credit that we're issuing.

978
00:59:11,532 --> 00:59:13,572
We sold $7 billion last year.

979
00:59:13,632 --> 00:59:16,572
We sold $400 million in a few weeks this year.

980
00:59:17,332 --> 00:59:27,352
So the issuance of that credit on top of that network is going to be 10x the price impact of anything that the miners do or don't do.

981
00:59:27,552 --> 00:59:31,212
They're really a third order effect at this point in the future of the network.

982
00:59:31,752 --> 00:59:44,611
Real quick if you were to make a prediction about where Bitcoin is call it 12 months from now what do you think You know I don really make predictions over 12 months I think the Bitcoin is going to double to triple the performance of the S over the next four to eight years

983
00:59:44,651 --> 00:59:46,511
And I think that's the only thing we need to know.

984
00:59:47,671 --> 00:59:53,191
While we're talking about Michael Saylor, quantum computing came up a lot this week.

985
00:59:53,291 --> 01:00:00,031
And he's pulling a move after a recent investment firm told their clients to, a notable investment firm, I should say,

986
01:00:00,031 --> 01:00:05,751
told their clients to remove Bitcoin from their portfolio due to quantum risk.

987
01:00:06,011 --> 01:00:09,191
So Saylor's doing what he did around Bitcoin mining environmental impact.

988
01:00:09,371 --> 01:00:14,251
He's launching a superhero group of bureaucrats called the Quantum Defense,

989
01:00:14,891 --> 01:00:17,551
and Strategy announced it this week.

990
01:00:17,831 --> 01:00:22,411
Strategy, we are going to initiate a Bitcoin security program

991
01:00:22,411 --> 01:00:26,291
that coordinates with the global cybersecurity community,

992
01:00:26,291 --> 01:00:30,511
the global crypto security community, and the global Bitcoin security committee,

993
01:00:31,491 --> 01:00:43,331
in order to help and contribute to consensus and solutions to address the quantum computing threat,

994
01:00:43,751 --> 01:00:47,211
as well as any other emergent security threats that evolve.

995
01:00:47,831 --> 01:00:54,791
We think it's reasonable and appropriate for us to do this, given our large responsibility as a Bitcoin holder.

996
01:00:54,791 --> 01:01:01,451
but we want to do it in a very responsible fashion and we want to make sure that we coordinate with

997
01:01:01,451 --> 01:01:06,511
the global cyber crypto and bitcoin security community because there are a lot of very very

998
01:01:06,511 --> 01:01:13,711
brilliant minds here there's a lot of good work being done and and it's likely that consensus will

999
01:01:13,711 --> 01:01:20,671
form and solutions will form at the right time and you know this slide's interesting because it's so

1000
01:01:20,671 --> 01:01:24,671
it's the top of it is titled quantum and our commitment to bitcoin security and then down the

1001
01:01:24,671 --> 01:01:30,911
left side it's bitcoin fud is inevitable and then it's got a long list one after the other all crossed

1002
01:01:30,911 --> 01:01:35,811
out in the bottom of the list quantum fud not crossed out and on the right hand side of the

1003
01:01:35,811 --> 01:01:41,271
slide our position on quantum computing number one quantum computing is 10 plus years away it's

1004
01:01:41,271 --> 01:01:45,751
promising but a nascent technology i thought that was interesting and you know this is what he did

1005
01:01:45,751 --> 01:01:50,871
with the mining consortium thing to help, you know, publish papers on renewable energy use

1006
01:01:50,871 --> 01:01:55,631
of Bitcoin mining. And I do think it made an impact. Another big bag holder, Arx Cathy Wood,

1007
01:01:55,711 --> 01:02:01,551
also seemed to have a rather reasonable take on quantum risk. She starts out by showing us

1008
01:02:01,551 --> 01:02:05,911
a chart that shows Bitcoin's quantum computing development progress.

1009
01:02:05,911 --> 01:02:13,751
What has happened with quantum computing so far? And Google really leading the charge,

1010
01:02:13,751 --> 01:02:16,551
that little black line on that chart.

1011
01:02:16,951 --> 01:02:20,131
And the visual of this chart, it shows the last few years,

1012
01:02:20,411 --> 01:02:23,411
and there's just a tiny bit of development.

1013
01:02:23,851 --> 01:02:27,371
And it's distance from cracking RSA 2048.

1014
01:02:27,971 --> 01:02:31,271
And the line essentially is still on the bottom of the chart.

1015
01:02:32,031 --> 01:02:40,791
So you can see that it has been able to double the number of qubits over four years.

1016
01:02:40,791 --> 01:02:47,231
Which is slower than Moore's Law in the semiconductor space.

1017
01:02:47,231 --> 01:02:53,391
And of course, there is an error rate consideration lowering that as well over four years.

1018
01:02:53,391 --> 01:03:13,511
So if Google does not pick up speed, the red line tells you how long it will take Google and quantum computing to really threaten the Bitcoin blockchain as we know it now.

1019
01:03:13,971 --> 01:03:16,251
So we go into the 2060s there.

1020
01:03:16,371 --> 01:03:22,651
Now, if you make the assumption that Google is going to pick up the pace, and that's an interesting assumption.

1021
01:03:22,651 --> 01:03:29,731
Before she goes there. So the base case that she just kind of glossed over is assuming they hit some problems.

1022
01:03:30,751 --> 01:03:44,991
2063 is when Bitcoin really has to worry. But for that to work, for 2063 to be a threat, there has to be kind of a big uptick in the early 2050s of breakthroughs in order to get to 2063 as a possible threat.

1023
01:03:44,991 --> 01:03:52,651
There is a scenario that Google likes to promote where something like 2044 could be more of a threat.

1024
01:03:52,651 --> 01:04:07,591
Because typically we learn a lot in the early years of a new technology You know how how quickly are the units increasing and driving costs down

1025
01:04:07,971 --> 01:04:14,551
That's the learning curve associated with new technologies. But let's assume it does pick up

1026
01:04:14,551 --> 01:04:20,911
the pace, doubles the pace to Moore's Law. Okay, then we have a problem in the mid-40s.

1027
01:04:20,911 --> 01:04:43,971
Yeah. So around the mid 2040s, if Google is able to double the pace and pick things up, we will start to have signs of it around the 2040s. That seems to be a pretty reasonable estimate based on the data available to us today. So, yes, it's a good idea to talk about it. But I wouldn't be telling anybody to sell their bags because of a risk that we might see show up in the 2040s.

1028
01:04:43,971 --> 01:04:52,731
You never know. And that's assuming they make significantly good positive progress, because otherwise it's more like the 2060s.

1029
01:05:02,991 --> 01:05:06,191
All right, it's time for our final clip of the week.

1030
01:05:06,891 --> 01:05:11,051
And for this one final clip of the week, I am breaking a rule.

1031
01:05:11,791 --> 01:05:15,491
I don't play clips that have music under them, especially for the final clip.

1032
01:05:16,091 --> 01:05:18,931
But this clip from our boy Jack got me pumped.

1033
01:05:19,291 --> 01:05:21,151
The guy is just on fire sometimes.

1034
01:05:21,511 --> 01:05:24,751
And this particular rant is one that is near and dear to me.

1035
01:05:25,371 --> 01:05:30,671
Bitcoin gets traded often like it's a tech stock correlated with the NASDAQ.

1036
01:05:30,671 --> 01:05:32,031
It drives me nuts.

1037
01:05:32,751 --> 01:05:34,691
And Jack hits the nail on the head.

1038
01:05:35,031 --> 01:05:39,691
It's because a lot of the people that bought it during some of the early Bernanke debasement trade days,

1039
01:05:39,691 --> 01:05:44,951
they don't understand what they're owning. And those that do understand just need to hold on.

1040
01:05:45,531 --> 01:05:50,251
Every dip is good for the longer cause of Bitcoin becoming the best money of all time.

1041
01:05:50,691 --> 01:05:56,591
All of us Bitcoiners knew at some point we were going to have to grow out of this relationship

1042
01:05:56,591 --> 01:06:01,951
that we have with tech. Bitcoin's always moving with tech. It's not like gold yet. It isn't

1043
01:06:01,951 --> 01:06:06,651
traded like gold yet. And that goes down to the people that own it. I don't want to give financial

1044
01:06:06,651 --> 01:06:13,051
advice on here. If anyone was questioning how early we were, we're so early that some of the

1045
01:06:13,051 --> 01:06:18,811
largest capital pools in the world still don't understand what Bitcoin is. The asset itself is

1046
01:06:18,811 --> 01:06:23,031
creating nothing. There's a cryptocurrency which might actually do something. And then there's one

1047
01:06:23,031 --> 01:06:28,111
which does nothing. I call it the pet rock, the Bitcoin or something like that. Bitcoin doesn't

1048
01:06:28,111 --> 01:06:33,131
need what companies need. That's a fascinating thing. Bitcoin doesn't need high margins. It

1049
01:06:33,131 --> 01:06:38,411
doesn't need buybacks. It doesn't need earnings. It doesn't need higher capex. It's not a company.

1050
01:06:38,811 --> 01:06:46,311
It's not a tech stock. It's crazy that I have to say this out loud, but clearly Bitcoin is still

1051
01:06:46,311 --> 01:06:53,651
misunderstood by the broader investment public. That's just a fact. Hang in there. Hang in there.

1052
01:06:53,651 --> 01:07:00,651
Get these tech software levered Wall Street junkies out of our asset class. Buy their dip.

1053
01:07:00,651 --> 01:07:05,911
If Bitcoin is capitalized and held by hodlers of last resort,

1054
01:07:06,031 --> 01:07:08,531
of people that are monetizing it, that are saving in it,

1055
01:07:08,771 --> 01:07:10,751
it will start trading like a hard asset.

1056
01:07:11,251 --> 01:07:13,851
It's never made sense that it traded like a tech stock.

1057
01:07:14,091 --> 01:07:17,191
It's because a lot of these tech guys got into it over the 2010s

1058
01:07:17,191 --> 01:07:19,451
in these large swaths of liquidity.

1059
01:07:19,991 --> 01:07:23,491
And now that there's a liquidity regime change, a lot of that's unwinding.

1060
01:07:24,011 --> 01:07:25,871
Hang in there.

1061
01:07:26,571 --> 01:07:28,391
Turn on your DCAs.

1062
01:07:28,731 --> 01:07:30,591
We are almost home.

1063
01:07:30,651 --> 01:07:32,431
We are almost home.

1064
01:07:44,051 --> 01:07:49,591
Checking in on the state of the network, I am wrapping up at block height 936,112.

1065
01:07:50,091 --> 01:07:52,191
The price to U.S. dollar is quaint.

1066
01:07:52,291 --> 01:07:53,911
It's $67,800.

1067
01:07:54,631 --> 01:08:00,331
That puts our sats per dollar 1,475 sats to one U.S. dollar.

1068
01:08:00,651 --> 01:08:04,151
Although I remember when it was over 2000, so that was not too long ago.

1069
01:08:04,151 --> 01:08:10,151
We are down 46.3% from our all-time high, which was $126,180,

1070
01:08:10,151 --> 01:08:15,651
a long cold 128 days ago on October 6th, 2025.

1071
01:08:15,651 --> 01:08:28,971
Our difficulty retarget data set for February 20th with an estimated difficulty adjustment upwards of 10 10 Let go check in on the hash rate right now

1072
01:08:29,771 --> 01:08:32,891
Hash rate currently 957.3x a hash.

1073
01:08:33,671 --> 01:08:37,191
Nodes down slightly, 24,344.

1074
01:08:37,251 --> 01:08:39,291
Boys, go node up.

1075
01:08:40,191 --> 01:08:41,171
Go node up.

1076
01:08:41,231 --> 01:08:44,651
Something like 70% of the nodes are on the Tor network too.

1077
01:08:45,151 --> 01:08:45,791
It's really something.

1078
01:08:46,771 --> 01:08:47,831
Things are cooking right along, though.

1079
01:08:47,971 --> 01:08:49,031
Transactions are moving quick.

1080
01:08:49,131 --> 01:08:50,211
Fees are looking good.

1081
01:08:51,271 --> 01:08:53,211
Mempool isn't too busy, isn't too empty.

1082
01:08:54,131 --> 01:08:57,151
State of the Bitcoin network, it's doing just fine.

1083
01:09:09,091 --> 01:09:12,811
Well, I got that meetup in Pasadena on March 6th or 7th.

1084
01:09:12,811 --> 01:09:17,751
Haven't quite locked it in yet, but the details will be firmed up at meetup.com slash Jupiter Broadcasting.

1085
01:09:17,971 --> 01:09:22,971
If you're going to be at Planet Nix or scale or just in the Pasadena area in March, come say hi.

1086
01:09:23,551 --> 01:09:25,971
It's always fun to talk Bitcoin in person, as we just learned.

1087
01:09:26,631 --> 01:09:29,811
Of course, links to what I talked about and more at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1088
01:09:29,911 --> 01:09:31,411
This was episode 92.

1089
01:09:32,611 --> 01:09:35,411
I hope this show did what it needed to do for you.

1090
01:09:35,411 --> 01:09:39,331
Got you the information to help you plan for yourself, your family, your business, your future.

1091
01:09:39,731 --> 01:09:42,151
Didn't get distracted by emotions and focused on the signal.

1092
01:09:42,151 --> 01:09:44,091
so let me know how I did with a boost

1093
01:09:44,091 --> 01:09:46,571
I want your bottom floor predictions

1094
01:09:46,571 --> 01:09:48,851
as well as your thoughts on the current state

1095
01:09:48,851 --> 01:09:50,091
of the four year cycle as well

1096
01:09:50,091 --> 01:09:50,831
boost those in

1097
01:09:50,831 --> 01:09:52,311
let me know what you think

1098
01:09:52,311 --> 01:09:55,131
and I'll cover them in episode 93

1099
01:09:55,131 --> 01:09:57,371
ticking the way to episode 100

1100
01:09:57,371 --> 01:09:59,531
I'm going to leave you with a value for value track

1101
01:09:59,531 --> 01:10:01,331
if you boost in during this song

1102
01:10:01,331 --> 01:10:05,351
95% of the sats go directly to the artist

1103
01:10:05,351 --> 01:10:08,631
this week is Take a Break by Fentile

1104
01:10:12,151 --> 01:10:14,151
Listen to me soon enough I'll get to take a break

1105
01:10:14,151 --> 01:10:16,991
Forgive never forget, always give never take

1106
01:10:16,991 --> 01:10:19,151
Let's all just wrap it up it's time to take a break

1107
01:10:19,151 --> 01:10:32,431
Smooth sailing only doing what I was told to

1108
01:10:32,431 --> 01:10:34,751
Making messes that can't be fixed until I break through

1109
01:10:34,751 --> 01:10:37,751
You're so hateful, I was only ever grateful

1110
01:10:37,751 --> 01:10:40,411
Promising to help but then you say your place full

1111
01:10:40,411 --> 01:10:43,191
Life is enlarged, yeah my eyesight is a looking glass

1112
01:10:43,191 --> 01:10:45,911
Glossy time, yeah, smoking on the devil's grass

1113
01:10:45,911 --> 01:10:48,631
Maybe it's time to stop thinking of the past

1114
01:10:48,631 --> 01:10:51,291
Take a break, I can't remember when I had one last

1115
01:10:51,291 --> 01:10:53,391
Take a break, yeah, take a break

1116
01:10:53,391 --> 01:10:56,071
Take a break, yeah, take a break

1117
01:10:56,071 --> 01:10:58,671
Take a break, yeah, take a break

1118
01:10:58,671 --> 01:11:01,291
Take a break, yeah, take a break

1119
01:11:01,291 --> 01:11:04,271
Cunts speeding up, but they on the come down

1120
01:11:04,271 --> 01:11:06,471
Airpods in, listening to when I come around

1121
01:11:06,471 --> 01:11:09,151
I bet you thought you heard me off the Melbourne sand

1122
01:11:09,151 --> 01:11:11,911
But you never did, you saw me in the lost and found

1123
01:11:11,911 --> 01:11:14,731
Off to my happy place, with a water and a pill

1124
01:11:14,731 --> 01:11:17,051
Haven't been found yet, and I doubt I ever will

1125
01:11:17,051 --> 01:11:19,851
Stuck doing regular jobs, like feeling the till

1126
01:11:19,851 --> 01:11:22,691
It's an error with the industry, it's nothing to do with my skill

1127
01:11:22,691 --> 01:11:24,971
Tired of this shit, I'm ready to give up

1128
01:11:24,971 --> 01:11:27,651
People asking like I ever really even gave a fuck

1129
01:11:27,651 --> 01:11:30,251
Memories are days when I used to run amok

1130
01:11:30,251 --> 01:11:33,071
All good times, but man, blacking out, used to suck

1131
01:11:33,071 --> 01:11:35,831
I want that break, it's been promised a long time ago

1132
01:11:35,831 --> 01:11:38,491
Running out, taking anything just for a fussy boat

1133
01:11:38,491 --> 01:11:41,111
Still cashing in even though I just got a 20 note

1134
01:11:41,111 --> 01:11:43,731
Listen hang on man this blow reminds me of a song I wrote

1135
01:11:43,731 --> 01:11:46,371
Something about being famous we're all in the same boat

1136
01:11:46,371 --> 01:11:48,811
Asking for a break I say you're the goat

1137
01:11:48,811 --> 01:11:51,971
Maybe it's time to stop thinking of the past

1138
01:11:51,971 --> 01:11:54,591
Take a break I can't remember when I had one last

1139
01:11:54,591 --> 01:11:57,011
Promises they break before they're ever even made

1140
01:11:57,011 --> 01:11:59,651
Promising me soon enough I'll get to take a break

1141
01:11:59,651 --> 01:12:02,491
Forgive never forget always give never take

1142
01:12:02,491 --> 01:12:04,631
Let's all just wrap it up it's time to take a break

1143
01:12:04,631 --> 01:12:34,611
Take a break

1144
01:12:34,631 --> 01:12:36,631
Take a break, yeah