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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 112.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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Bitcoin survived the strategy test this week.

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You know, the skeptics said that Bitcoin would collapse if sailors stopped buying,

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to say nothing if he were to actually sell a serious amount.

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Well, I don't know if you were on social media,

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but some of us woke up to the news that a serious amount had indeed been sold.

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On Monday, we found out that Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin last week, around $216 million in U.S. greenbacks at the time.

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But the market mostly shrugged it off.

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Not only did the Bitcoin price go up while the sale was presumably happening last week, but after the initial news, the price went up again.

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Saylor made the news public.

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There was an initial reaction and the news pumped.

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And I've noted that before in a bad market, often good news like this just gets completely ignored.

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So I thought that was actually pretty notable.

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So what's going on?

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We're going to break kind of down what was going on there, where the positive bid was coming from.

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But before we get too far, I kind of do want to explain what's going on with strategy and

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sailor because it has become a drag on the Bitcoin market.

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I've kind of glanced around the issue.

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I've orbited around the issue, but I haven't really explained what's going on.

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And I've noted before on the show that when stuff is going bad for Bitcoin, you know,

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price wise or narrative wise, and then often things are also at the same time going bad

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for strategy and the stock price and all of that.

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The interviews go from loving and he's such a genius, what a brilliant guy, to really pretty

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tough.

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And after weeks of Saylor being the main character of Bitcoin, he sat down for, I guess what

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people are calling a firecracker of an interview with Channel 4.

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They don't trust a company.

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But you're a company.

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You're a company.

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You represent a company.

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Are you going to keep interrupting me or are you going to listen to the answer?

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Michael Saylor is arguably the closest the community has to a celebrity.

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His real claim to fame came during COVID when he went all in on Bitcoin.

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The idea of economic immortality or economic sovereignty so that your family is economically secure, that's a very compelling idea.

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Immortality is very compelling for everybody.

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Spiritual immortality is the basis of religion.

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Economic immortality is the basis of Bitcoin.

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What happened last year? What happened with the price last year?

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It goes up and it goes down, but it's irrelevant because the point is it's going up double to triple the rate of the S&P over the long term because it's economically superior.

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People shouldn't panic if it loses 50% of its value. Is that the crypto winter?

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No, the right way to think of it is people shouldn't invest in a volatile capital asset.

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If you want to make a capital investment in anything, if you need the money in the next

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four months, you're a credit investor.

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But all the risk, all the risk, all the risk, all the risk.

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If you're going to ask me the question, you got to listen to the answer.

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The point really is Bitcoin is the world's most secure digital property network.

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it's 21 million blocks it's a cyber manhattan so all of the people in the world that would like to

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put their money in a bank in cyberspace they don't trust the government they don't trust the company

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but you're a company you're a company you represent are you going to keep interrupting

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me or are you going to listen to the answer even though 10 million companies will come and go and

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10 billion people will come and go in 500 years and the bitcoin still holds its economic value

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well and unless quantum destroys that i did the entire quantum thesis is maybe someone will invent

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a better computer so before okay before we get to before we get to if you're going to ask me these

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questions you cannot interrupt me before we get right because it's like i'm not going to do this

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with you like it like you're being offensive right now to do this like uh it's literally a fantasy

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you fantasize like the tooth fairy might actually come out of the clouds in 37 years with magical

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wands and wave them at you i hope she's coming up to my teeth and destroy your house

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it's like okay yeah well maybe the tooth fairy will come and i do love his analogies he has

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the best analogies in bitcoin you know because he he has it he starts with the tooth fairy

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everybody loves a tooth fairy and then he pivots you know he just takes a slight pivot in a

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direction you don't see coming and destroy your house it's like okay yeah well maybe the tooth

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fairy will come and dematerialize my house but i'm still going to have the house because i don't

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really think it's that likely is it the proletariat that benefits from bitcoin's expanse or is it

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people who have very big shares people like you did i not just point out that i have 55 million

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beneficiaries. It's a technology. And right now it's touching 500 million people,

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but there's no reason why it shouldn't touch 5 billion people. Okay, we're done.

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That was kind of a super clip because otherwise it'd just be like five minutes,

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but that I thought was very interesting. Now here's what's actually going on and why they

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had to sell and why I think you should probably brace yourself for the news that they're going

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to sell more Bitcoin. Lynn Alden's back. She breaks it down. And it's really about reserve

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management. It's not a thesis change. It's not about conviction change. Strategy hasn't changed

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their bullish outlook long term on Bitcoin. But they have to keep a buffer for this perpetual that

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they have, for this dividend that they're paying out. The issue is that we as a community, as

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Bitcoiners is we have not made the transition that strategy made a little while ago and didn't

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really make a big public announcement about a pivot. Lynn kind of explains it all. I'm doing

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a horrible job. Lynn, thank you so much for joining us. Katie and I have been excited the whole show

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to chat with you. So we do know that Saylor really has this reputation of never ever sell. So when

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strategy sells Bitcoin, how should investors interpret that? Is this business as usual or

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is this a signal of something bigger? So thanks for having me. I interpret it as getting back to

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their prior guidance on their USD reserve. So if you recall, a couple quarters ago,

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they had a view that they were going to have two to three years of dollar reserves,

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which would give them kind of a volatility buffer to keep paying dividends on their securities

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without having to sell Bitcoin. And for a couple of different reasons, they ended up dipping down

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about six months.

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And that was at a time when, you know,

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there was leverage built on top of, you know,

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their most popular, you know, security

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other than their common stock, which is STRC.

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It had that large, like, DPEG moment

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going way below their target price.

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And since then, the company's come out

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with a board-level decision to have

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at least 12 months of reserves,

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unless the board allows otherwise.

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So they're trying to both look appealing

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to the S&P 500 for inclusion

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and calm the fears of investors that they have enough reserves to keep paying out on what is now a promised 12 percent dividend.

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Currently, they're back up to 17 months.

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And recently they announced that they were selling Bitcoin to pay some of their most recent dividends,

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which at least I interpret as not wanting to have their reserve, their U.S. dollar reserve dip again.

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So I think they're kind of rebuilding back to, you know, we're going to see what the number actually is.

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But I think they're basically getting back to something more resembling their prior guidance from six months ago.

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And that includes being willing, clearly, to sell some Bitcoin when needed.

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The product is the dividend.

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The dividend is backed by the cash reserve to give the market some calm.

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The product is no longer they're a Bitcoin treasury company that stacks unlimited Bitcoin.

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now they a company that stacks bitcoin when they can and will sell that bitcoin to maintain the primary product which is that dividend product that that preferred and you know if they have to sell Bitcoin to do it they will It a small percentage of their stack Right

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And then I want to talk about sort of the symbolic importance of strategy because I have a lot

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of folks from TradFi and when it comes to crypto, all they want to talk about is what's

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going to happen to MicroStrategy.

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So, you know, this is why I say he's been the main character, because while as Bitcoiners,

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it's sort of noise to us. People that are big money sitting outside the market wanting to get

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in, they're trying to decide if they should wait for strategy to get wrecked first, because in

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their estimation, if strategy gets wrecked, the price collapses and then they get to lap up a

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scarce asset at just unbelievable fire sale prices. There's literally no reason for them not to wait

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because they're making money on the AI trade right now anyways. Now that's starting to play

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out for them a little bit. So they're starting to ask questions. These are real questions these

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people are asking. I know it seems obnoxious. At least it seems obnoxious to me, but they want to

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know if strategy is going to get wrecked. And so that's one of the things they're doing is signaling

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to the market here. When it comes to crypto, all they want to talk about is what's going to happen

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to micro strategy. So, you know, you just went into the details about, you know, what some of

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their financing looks like at this moment. But when it comes to a sentiment perspective, when it

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comes to a signal perspective, I mean, how do you think about strategy in the broader ecosystem?

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Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, the strategy owns something like 4% of Bitcoin. So it's large, you know, it's large in and of itself. You know, I wouldn't call it systemic, but it's large. You know, the chairman obviously is, you know, extremely well known in the space. And, you know, he's well known outside of the space to a significant degree. So the combination of the social reach with the scale involved, you know, it's a very large.

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Let's talk about that social reach because that's, I mean, that's a really nice way to put it.

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Saylor backed himself into this corner.

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He created this perception that you're seeing by the whales and he created this backlash that you're seeing with the plebs.

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The reality is, sure, they could change their quote unquote strategy and the real product can become the preferred stock that they continuously promise a reserve for.

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And they can continue to buy Bitcoin when they can.

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That can be the product.

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That's fine.

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there's a there's a you know it's a free market do whatever you want but that's not what was

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promised to bitcoiners and i refuse to do it because a troll on twitter said hey hey you said

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never sell your bitcoin okay fine i'll destroy a billion a hundred billion dollar company so that

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i don't sell my bitcoin you know well the point is i said to by the way i said to you never sell

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your bitcoin i never said that the company wouldn't sell his bitcoin so uh we're not going to be

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selling uh we're gonna be buying bitcoin we're not gonna be selling i just bought 1.1 billion

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of it and i intend to hold it forever forever we're not gonna sell our bitcoin you do not sell

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your bitcoin and anybody that's been listening to our earnings calls or reading our disclosures

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or has half a brain knows for the last five years we've been very clear that of course we sell the

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Bitcoin if we have to.

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Yeah, okay. So I think, you know,

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you can get hung up, did he lie or not?

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Truth of the matter, he's the first

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guy doing something like this. So he's

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going to change. Things are going to change.

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And the incentives for them

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changed. Once you issue

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preferreds that forever

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start offering, you know, a dividend,

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eventually there's going to be payment dates on

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that. And it's a real pressure point.

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So strategy went from never sell

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to strategic selling to defend that

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preferred. That's where we're at now.

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And they've tried to bump up that preferred dividend to 12% to make it enticing to those of you out there that maybe want to buy that instead of sats.

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And that's really the tell that it's under pressure too, by the way.

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And the reality is, unless that thing gets back up to its peg, their Bitcoin buying machine is off.

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The way their system works is once they go over the peg, they start buying Bitcoin.

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And when they're under the peg, they're probably going to be selling Bitcoin for a while.

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So a major buyer of Bitcoin is going to have to probably sit things out for a while.

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remain under pressure. I do think the recent active actions buy them enough time. Clearly,

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strategy investors and their preferred investors liked it. We've seen the stretch preferred

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initially traded down to about $70 from $100 par, and it's rallied back then. And so the market is

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supportive of these actions. It's easing fears of any sort of more cascading liquidations. And so

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we view that as a positive, adding a bit of surety to the market, but it could also impact

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strategy's ability to acquire more Bitcoin in the second half of the year. If they're

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trying to really balance their cash reserves, they're now trading at a lower MNAV multiple.

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And again, so it may restrict their ability to issue shares and acquire more Bitcoin in the back

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half. Yeah. And just to clarify, I mean, obviously, to confirm what you just said, I mean,

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STRC, they need to defend that, what, $90 peg on that particular product. So it makes sense. I mean,

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Michael Saylor has talked to us about that before, the need to perhaps sell to, you know, as a means

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to keep that level. That's the new mission, to keep that peg and sell if they must. Because they're

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no longer just a buy and hold treasury company. They're a financial engineering company that has

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a financially engineered product they're selling. It's not a side quest. It is the product now,

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And I don't think our Bitcoin community has wrapped their head around it.

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They're just completely confused by the entire thing.

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So let me play one more Lynn clip as we kind of wrap this up.

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I think we're kind of where we need to be with this.

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But I think she's focused on the right thing through all of this.

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It's all about the reserves.

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They were getting low.

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She flagged it.

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It's uncomfortable.

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And I think her perspective is the right one.

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And I wasn't on that one.

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But when they were gathering questions, I did post and say, you know, the reserve was 24

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to 36 months.

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That was the prior guidance.

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And at the time, it was 18 months.

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So it had fallen somewhat below the prior guidance.

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My view was, is there updated guidance for what the reserve is going to be going forward?

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And then, in the recent weeks, they got as low as six months of reserves.

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So I say that it's always easy to be an armchair analyst on these things.

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but from an investor perspective

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you generally do want to see

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a company

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give a guidance and then kind of generally stick

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to what they guided that they're

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going to do. Generally from an investor

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perspective you don't want to see surprises.

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I mean it's nice to see upside surprises but

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you generally don't want to see

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downside surprises.

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And so yeah they got very

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low on reserves. Obviously this we had

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a Bitcoin bear market and people

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did apparently build a lot of leverage

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on top of STRC.

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So they ran into a pretty big volatility event. I think the actions since then have been quite reasonable. So they've recommitted to building their reserve. They put kind of board level lines in the sand for how low that reserve can get without board approval. I think it's 12 months. And they're currently back up to 17 months of actual reserves. But that kind of board level, I think, is 12 months off the top of my head.

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they've put in facilities that allow for the repurchase.

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Okay. So I think we've got, this is what's going on.

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The strategy situation seems to be somewhat, I would say, stabilizing

215
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and somewhat has killed the myth that Bitcoin is going to collapse without its ongoing buyer.

216
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Now we'll see how that plays out over time.

217
00:16:21,055 --> 00:16:25,875
But let's talk about why we actually went up after it was announced that Saylor had sold.

218
00:16:29,895 --> 00:16:38,255
So what did change? Well, obviously it wasn't Bitcoin. The macro headwinds stopped being a

219
00:16:38,255 --> 00:16:43,035
headwind for a moment. There was a weaker jobs print here in the United States. And we're in

220
00:16:43,035 --> 00:16:48,555
that twisted state of the economy where bad news for the average folks is good news for assets and

221
00:16:48,555 --> 00:16:54,895
the stock market. Because the calculus is that with jobs being weaker, that gives the Fed room

222
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to cut rates. And if they cut rates, assets will pump. So it's the second order effects

223
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that they're immediately trading on. But that combined with at least the seemingly temporarily

224
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resolved situation with Iran and energy prices sort of resolved some of the macro headwinds that

225
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Bitcoin was facing And it naturally started going back up The buyers outweighed the sellers even with sailor selling over 3000 Bitcoin I think that a really interesting note It without these pressures Bitcoin just started

226
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ticking back up. But of course, these relief trades, especially when we're kind of in a bear

227
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market to begin with, they're just so easy to disrupt. And well, disrupted, they have been.

228
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The U.S. Treasury Department is revoking the general license that allowed for the sale

229
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of Iranian oil. Now, essentially, they're allowing for a 10-day wind-down period,

230
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but will be blocking any new transactions or any new sales of Iranian oil. And this comes just

231
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after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today, Qatar and Saudi Arabia,

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which had tankers hit, pointing the finger at Iran for those attacks. As for why the Trump

233
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administration now is taking this step, a U.S. official tells me this. They say,

234
00:18:06,649 --> 00:18:11,629
as President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed the MOU in effect with Iran

235
00:18:11,629 --> 00:18:13,309
is entirely performance-based.

236
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Iran will only reap benefits

237
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if they exhibit good behavior.

238
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Oh, the MOU.

239
00:18:17,569 --> 00:18:20,589
You know, it's funny they use the term performance-based

240
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because the MOU felt performative.

241
00:18:23,149 --> 00:18:25,309
Iran is entirely performance-based.

242
00:18:25,669 --> 00:18:26,969
Iran will only reap benefits

243
00:18:26,969 --> 00:18:28,309
if they exhibit good behavior.

244
00:18:28,749 --> 00:18:29,989
Iran's actions in the strait

245
00:18:29,989 --> 00:18:32,549
were wholly unacceptable to the United States

246
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:33,909
and will be met with consequences.

247
00:18:34,349 --> 00:18:36,569
Our negotiators continue to work in good faith.

248
00:18:36,569 --> 00:18:39,909
All right, so met with consequences they have,

249
00:18:39,909 --> 00:18:41,949
and Bitcoin does not like this cocktail.

250
00:18:42,169 --> 00:18:43,129
We got a firm dollar.

251
00:18:43,229 --> 00:18:44,409
I talked about that last week,

252
00:18:44,429 --> 00:18:46,309
and now we have energy prices going up.

253
00:18:46,689 --> 00:18:47,569
Not good.

254
00:18:47,649 --> 00:18:50,109
The relief trade needed macro to just,

255
00:18:50,389 --> 00:18:53,269
just be quiet for a little while,

256
00:18:53,509 --> 00:18:54,689
just behave for a little while.

257
00:18:56,269 --> 00:18:59,169
And we got the exact opposite of that.

258
00:18:59,249 --> 00:19:01,809
The U.S. has indeed responded with counter strikes.

259
00:19:02,169 --> 00:19:05,309
We just got some news from U.S. Central Command on Iran.

260
00:19:05,609 --> 00:19:07,749
Forces have begun launching U.S. forces,

261
00:19:07,749 --> 00:19:13,309
a series of what CENTCOM is describing as powerful strikes against Iran to impose, quote,

262
00:19:13,389 --> 00:19:17,869
heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an

263
00:19:17,869 --> 00:19:23,529
international waterway. CENTCOM goes on to say in this post on X, the U.S. strikes are in response

264
00:19:23,529 --> 00:19:28,029
to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

265
00:19:28,389 --> 00:19:35,229
Iran's demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.

266
00:19:35,229 --> 00:20:00,189
That doesn't sound good for passage of the straight. And of course, if crude oil catches a bid, inflation expectations will turn back around just like they did when we got a weak job sprint. That's just they turn on a dime like that. And that matters for Bitcoin liquidity. And it's not really about Iran. It's it's about oil. It's about the dollar. And it's about what is the Fed going to do with rate cuts?

267
00:20:00,189 --> 00:20:05,949
even though bitcoin is a global asset these things because the u.s market is so large absolutely

268
00:20:05,949 --> 00:20:10,769
matters and i don't think there's anything in this lineup that's coming to save bitcoin

269
00:20:10,769 --> 00:20:15,609
and the truth is that's always how it has been investors are going to watch these things and

270
00:20:15,609 --> 00:20:19,349
especially certain companies have to have to watch the passage of this legislation

271
00:20:19,349 --> 00:20:23,929
um i don't think there's anything coming to save bitcoin i think bitcoin has to kind of

272
00:20:23,929 --> 00:20:28,349
either its merits are going to be seen by the market and it's going to be bought you know by

273
00:20:28,349 --> 00:20:33,289
players in the market. And they're going to take advantage of cheap sats and a lot of the fast

274
00:20:33,289 --> 00:20:40,029
money washed out and a lot of the parts of the ecosystem deleveraged. And then it'll climb its

275
00:20:40,029 --> 00:20:45,249
way up. And then once it starts climbing its way up, that, of course, gets outside money interested

276
00:20:45,249 --> 00:20:49,749
again. That's what makes it become fast money. If something's bottomed and rolling up, you get,

277
00:20:49,869 --> 00:20:53,089
again, the technical chartists that come in and say, that's actually a pretty good chart.

278
00:20:53,089 --> 00:20:59,589
you get the momentum traders uh you get the the fomo traders um uh and you get and you get all the

279
00:20:59,589 --> 00:21:04,269
marketing around you know bitcoin one day reclaiming 100k and then reclaiming all-time highs

280
00:21:04,269 --> 00:21:09,889
and it just kind of feeds on itself um uh and until then i think the asset just has to survive

281
00:21:09,889 --> 00:21:15,189
on its own merits oh we just are gonna chop it out but you know it's really it's fascinating

282
00:21:15,189 --> 00:21:20,109
because you have you have different perspectives out there and let's go to van eck for a second

283
00:21:20,109 --> 00:21:22,189
because it's the institutional version of the perspective.

284
00:21:22,189 --> 00:21:24,309
And I think that's likely the next big buyer.

285
00:21:24,789 --> 00:21:26,369
While Saylor sits it out,

286
00:21:26,689 --> 00:21:28,929
I think the institutions will step in

287
00:21:28,929 --> 00:21:31,969
and quietly snap up some Satoshis

288
00:21:31,969 --> 00:21:33,409
that he would otherwise have been buying

289
00:21:33,409 --> 00:21:34,709
and driving the price up.

290
00:21:35,469 --> 00:21:37,709
And they're not trying to buy every dip.

291
00:21:38,129 --> 00:21:40,729
And we're going to listen to Vanek's chief analyst here,

292
00:21:40,769 --> 00:21:42,289
and he's going to kind of lay out the strategy.

293
00:21:42,429 --> 00:21:44,249
This is what he's advising his clients.

294
00:21:45,289 --> 00:21:47,089
They're looking at the overall market

295
00:21:47,089 --> 00:21:48,789
and there's certain moments they're buying,

296
00:21:48,789 --> 00:21:51,629
but not the entire process.

297
00:21:51,929 --> 00:21:53,889
They're waiting for what they call

298
00:21:53,889 --> 00:21:55,649
a seller exhaustion use case.

299
00:21:55,849 --> 00:21:57,669
And they think it's starting to show up.

300
00:21:58,049 --> 00:22:00,629
And he thinks this is good news for his clients

301
00:22:00,629 --> 00:22:04,629
and they've begun advising they buy some of these dips.

302
00:22:05,349 --> 00:22:06,529
I'm going to play this for you

303
00:22:06,529 --> 00:22:09,809
because I want you to put yourself

304
00:22:09,809 --> 00:22:11,709
in the mindset of somebody

305
00:22:11,709 --> 00:22:14,489
who's advising multiple clients

306
00:22:14,489 --> 00:22:15,789
with millions and millions of dollars.

307
00:22:15,989 --> 00:22:18,569
You're responsible for multiple billions of dollars,

308
00:22:18,569 --> 00:22:22,509
tens of billions of dollars, and you've got to make a directional bet for these people.

309
00:22:23,049 --> 00:22:23,949
That's this guy's job.

310
00:22:24,409 --> 00:22:29,769
What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October.

311
00:22:29,769 --> 00:22:38,089
You know, we respect the four-year cycle, and it's been one element in kind of not buying

312
00:22:38,089 --> 00:22:41,289
every dip in Bitcoin this year.

313
00:22:41,469 --> 00:22:43,229
And not to say we didn't buy some of these dips.

314
00:22:43,229 --> 00:22:51,729
The first time that Bitcoin hit 60K, we noticed some really one-sided positioning in the derivatives market.

315
00:22:52,449 --> 00:22:57,729
And then we got the bounce into the low 80s, ran right into the moving averages.

316
00:22:57,729 --> 00:23:13,249
And on this retest, there hasn't quite been the same type of capitulation signals in terms of liquidations or the premiums that people are paying for puts versus calls.

317
00:23:14,349 --> 00:23:17,329
And I think that the market noticed that.

318
00:23:18,009 --> 00:23:24,189
And while there was definitely a lot of bearishness, we didn't see that same type of capitulation.

319
00:23:25,149 --> 00:23:33,069
That said, puts are still really expensive versus calls by historical standards.

320
00:23:33,069 --> 00:23:35,949
We're seeing that like in the 80th percentile.

321
00:23:36,309 --> 00:23:42,649
So not quite the 99th like we saw the first time BTC hit 60K, but puts are expensive.

322
00:23:43,549 --> 00:23:47,629
Realized losses are in the 90th percentile historically.

323
00:23:48,109 --> 00:23:49,849
So people are dumping losses.

324
00:23:49,849 --> 00:23:55,989
So, you know, there is maybe some hint of seller's exhaustion that may emerge here.

325
00:23:57,009 --> 00:24:08,009
And then we've also seen the older cohorts, kind of two year plus holders, have slowed down their selling.

326
00:24:08,789 --> 00:24:12,109
So that's another maybe hint of seller's exhaustion.

327
00:24:12,369 --> 00:24:18,269
And I think that's what's kind of leading to this Bitcoin bounce here in the latter half of the week.

328
00:24:18,269 --> 00:24:25,169
but I'm still kind of waiting and watching to get more aggressive.

329
00:24:25,889 --> 00:24:30,289
It really depends on your kind of individual positioning and risk reward.

330
00:24:30,429 --> 00:24:35,849
What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October.

331
00:24:36,449 --> 00:24:45,329
So putting in some type of time-based buying where you add a few basis points every month or so

332
00:24:45,329 --> 00:24:46,769
until we get into Q4.

333
00:24:46,929 --> 00:24:49,309
That seems like a reasonable strategy.

334
00:24:49,589 --> 00:24:51,789
You know, I can't say I know exactly what's going to happen.

335
00:24:53,329 --> 00:24:57,429
But the fact that the four-year pattern matched up so well,

336
00:24:57,569 --> 00:24:59,229
like you got to respect it a little bit.

337
00:25:00,249 --> 00:25:00,609
There you go.

338
00:25:00,709 --> 00:25:02,889
Your top advice is DCA.

339
00:25:03,189 --> 00:25:05,609
That appears to be the advice from the top is,

340
00:25:06,069 --> 00:25:08,989
while we wait for this to work itself out, just DCA.

341
00:25:09,749 --> 00:25:11,069
So here's my question.

342
00:25:11,069 --> 00:25:15,669
Are you still a anti-four-year cycle or pro-year cycle person?

343
00:25:16,409 --> 00:25:18,609
Where are you on the four-year cycle right now?

344
00:25:18,749 --> 00:25:20,749
In a way, I kind of hope the four-year cycle is true, right?

345
00:25:20,789 --> 00:25:23,049
Because it at least gives us a light at the end of the tunnel.

346
00:25:23,609 --> 00:25:28,229
But when everybody starts landing on an October consensus, I start to get nervous.

347
00:25:29,289 --> 00:25:35,009
The reality is, is that so far, the four-year cycle has kind of perfectly played out.

348
00:25:35,489 --> 00:25:38,609
But it's also perfectly lined up with macro events.

349
00:25:38,609 --> 00:25:47,449
We had the stablecoin DPEG last October, liquidated retail, flushed liquidity out of the crypto market.

350
00:25:48,709 --> 00:25:52,669
Then there was right along that same timeline.

351
00:25:53,229 --> 00:26:04,284
We had the AI capital vacuum We now have the Iran war and a hawkish Fed which was unexpected And we once again concerned about energy price spikes

352
00:26:04,384 --> 00:26:08,464
And these have all been issues that kind of lined up right with things that line up with the four-year cycle.

353
00:26:09,584 --> 00:26:11,304
So what's going on here?

354
00:26:11,304 --> 00:26:12,844
Is it the four-year cycle?

355
00:26:13,104 --> 00:26:16,704
Is it macro events lining up in a four-year cycle?

356
00:26:17,064 --> 00:26:18,244
What say you?

357
00:26:18,964 --> 00:26:20,004
Boost in and tell me.

358
00:26:20,124 --> 00:26:20,644
I'd love to know.

359
00:26:20,724 --> 00:26:22,584
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.

360
00:26:22,584 --> 00:26:26,184
You can support the show and get your opinion in the next episode.

361
00:26:44,864 --> 00:26:47,144
You can support the show just by doing what you do.

362
00:26:47,224 --> 00:26:50,444
If you want to start buying sats on River, use my link in the show notes.

363
00:26:50,444 --> 00:26:52,284
It's a great way to stack sats in the U.S.

364
00:26:52,284 --> 00:26:58,604
If you're all about self-custody and you're in Canada or the U.S. and I, check out the Bitcoin well.

365
00:26:58,944 --> 00:27:01,104
They don't even host a wallet. It's all about self-custody.

366
00:27:01,544 --> 00:27:06,424
If it's time to spend some sats, you can go from Lightning to gift card in just seconds with a Bitcoin company.

367
00:27:06,524 --> 00:27:08,984
You can log in with Lightning, and the only thing they do is Bitcoin.

368
00:27:09,244 --> 00:27:10,544
They don't mess around with the other coins.

369
00:27:11,144 --> 00:27:16,524
Fold lets you passively stack sats while you're doing your day-to-day life stuff, paying you bills, that kind of stuff.

370
00:27:16,564 --> 00:27:17,344
That's the Fold card.

371
00:27:17,644 --> 00:27:20,424
And they also now have a Visa that gives you sats backs on the purchases.

372
00:27:21,124 --> 00:27:22,224
Then there's salt lending.

373
00:27:22,324 --> 00:27:26,984
They'll give you access to your liquidity without having to sell your Bitcoin with some liquidation protections there, too.

374
00:27:27,084 --> 00:27:28,524
And I'm adding a new one to the list.

375
00:27:28,604 --> 00:27:29,904
I'm officially adding Strike.

376
00:27:30,324 --> 00:27:32,824
You can use my Strike referral if you want to sign up for Strike.

377
00:27:32,884 --> 00:27:34,404
And I'll tell you why in the update section.

378
00:27:34,804 --> 00:27:35,984
They've got some big changes coming.

379
00:27:36,264 --> 00:27:40,624
So all of that's in the show notes and your podcast app or at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

380
00:27:40,624 --> 00:27:43,164
And you can support the show by doing what you do.

381
00:27:50,424 --> 00:28:07,084
Four score and seven boosts to go.

382
00:28:07,104 --> 00:28:09,104
We have some boosts to support the show.

383
00:28:09,244 --> 00:28:12,244
It's a summer episode, so I really wasn't sure if we were going to get much support

384
00:28:12,244 --> 00:28:13,964
because sometimes these can be a little tighter.

385
00:28:14,604 --> 00:28:16,124
People go on vacation and whatnot.

386
00:28:16,324 --> 00:28:18,524
Forget about their This Week in Bitcoin podcast.

387
00:28:18,524 --> 00:28:24,264
But that is not the case. In fact, J-Cube comes in with a baller booster, 75,000 sats.

388
00:28:28,304 --> 00:28:31,164
Remind me, Clarity isn't really doing much for Bitcoiners, right?

389
00:28:32,064 --> 00:28:36,964
I had more to say, but it all sounded political. I wish I could never live without fear of government overreach and control.

390
00:28:37,624 --> 00:28:48,504
Clarity doesn't do much for Bitcoin. The people out there, the analysts, the whatnot, say that the certainty that it would bring to the market would bring the money in that is kind of waiting on the sidelines for the rules of the road.

391
00:28:48,524 --> 00:28:50,464
And so Bitcoin would benefit from that.

392
00:28:50,944 --> 00:28:53,824
I think it's a stretch, man.

393
00:28:53,884 --> 00:28:54,704
I always have.

394
00:28:55,144 --> 00:28:57,024
I've never really cared about clarity.

395
00:28:57,584 --> 00:28:59,704
Now they're saying they have a target date of August.

396
00:29:01,424 --> 00:29:01,824
Whatever.

397
00:29:02,024 --> 00:29:03,744
I was told it was going to be the 4th of July.

398
00:29:04,144 --> 00:29:05,004
I don't know, man.

399
00:29:05,364 --> 00:29:06,444
We've got the Genius Act.

400
00:29:06,624 --> 00:29:07,684
It's all just very tiring.

401
00:29:07,904 --> 00:29:11,264
And it's all just because they want to just do a bunch of S-coinery, I think.

402
00:29:12,364 --> 00:29:13,184
That's what I think.

403
00:29:13,824 --> 00:29:16,284
So J-Cube, I don't know how much it really has going for Bitcoin.

404
00:29:16,284 --> 00:29:19,504
Do I believe it could maybe bring a little additional money into the market?

405
00:29:19,724 --> 00:29:21,124
I do believe that is possibly true.

406
00:29:21,524 --> 00:29:22,344
I guess there's that.

407
00:29:22,824 --> 00:29:23,484
Thank you for the boost.

408
00:29:24,184 --> 00:29:28,724
Derivation Dingus is here with 45,334 Satoshis.

409
00:29:28,824 --> 00:29:31,344
I hoard that which your kind covet.

410
00:29:31,544 --> 00:29:36,144
I've been, oh, he says, I couldn't agree more about the FOMC and the direction of the dollar.

411
00:29:36,244 --> 00:29:42,644
The way I see it, Lynn Alden's Nothing Stops the Strain article on fiscal dominance from two to three years ago is still perfectly explaining everything going on.

412
00:29:43,124 --> 00:29:45,264
Raising rates helps when banks are lending too much.

413
00:29:45,264 --> 00:29:48,104
But when the problem is government spending, it just makes little sense.

414
00:29:48,544 --> 00:29:52,184
Raising rates into inflation caused by fuel shortages makes zero sense.

415
00:29:52,644 --> 00:29:54,784
Also, I've been thinking about moving my IRAs.

416
00:29:54,844 --> 00:29:58,504
So when you recently reported on the Swan-related bad news, I decided to move to Unchained Capital.

417
00:29:58,944 --> 00:30:02,304
I got lucky and caught a 50% discount they were running, and I couldn't be happier.

418
00:30:02,804 --> 00:30:04,244
I love the collaborative custody model.

419
00:30:04,344 --> 00:30:07,324
I got lucky with Bitcoin price, and Swan doesn't support in-kind transfers.

420
00:30:07,664 --> 00:30:12,544
So I sold around $64K, and then the price dipped more, and I had to buy back at $58K.

421
00:30:12,544 --> 00:30:20,464
you know and I not to really you know put shade on Swan I I think the folks over there probably

422
00:30:20,464 --> 00:30:23,984
have all the best of intentions I think they've been dealt some bad cards they were early they

423
00:30:23,984 --> 00:30:28,064
had they had to partner with some bad folks they kind of got screwed maybe a bit by tether it seems

424
00:30:28,064 --> 00:30:31,824
it's just been rough for them right and so I think that's you know Unchained seems like they've been

425
00:30:31,824 --> 00:30:36,204
pretty pretty rock solid during all that thanks for that update good to hear it derivation appreciate

426
00:30:36,204 --> 00:30:48,744
that. Satsquatch is here with 25,353 Satoshis. He got sick, so he's late boosting. Man, I'm torn

427
00:30:48,744 --> 00:30:53,604
on the BIP-110 stuff. Jeff Booth is running knots, and then I switched back to feel creepy running

428
00:30:53,604 --> 00:30:58,464
core, so I'll probably switch again. I love SNART9, but also my node and some others. Yeah, we'll have

429
00:30:58,464 --> 00:31:05,064
a BIP-10-1 update, BIP-110 update. It is fascinating to kind of see everybody just

430
00:31:05,064 --> 00:31:10,484
putting all of their cards on the table now. There's been a lot of narratives and a lot of

431
00:31:10,484 --> 00:31:14,224
reasons given and a lot of things that were claimed are not true that are turning out to be true.

432
00:31:14,524 --> 00:31:18,984
So we're going to talk about that later in the show. Thanks, That Squatch. I appreciate it. And

433
00:31:18,984 --> 00:31:25,004
I know it's a really, it's a rough place. It's worse than I think probably most people realize.

434
00:31:25,004 --> 00:31:27,784
and I'll talk more about it later.

435
00:31:28,384 --> 00:31:30,464
OB comes in with 21,000 sets.

436
00:31:32,764 --> 00:31:35,644
Just a hunch BIP 110 will be a nothing burger.

437
00:31:36,244 --> 00:31:38,724
Yes, although what I'm going to get to is I do think it exposes something

438
00:31:38,724 --> 00:31:41,084
that's kind of systemic and then additionally,

439
00:31:41,504 --> 00:31:43,404
will they actually just leave us alone?

440
00:31:44,124 --> 00:31:44,524
We'll see.

441
00:31:45,304 --> 00:31:45,624
We'll see.

442
00:31:46,604 --> 00:31:46,944
Coming up.

443
00:31:46,944 --> 00:31:48,864
Code 27 comes in with a row of ducks.

444
00:31:48,964 --> 00:31:50,744
That's 2,222 Satoshis.

445
00:31:51,604 --> 00:31:53,104
No message, just value.

446
00:31:53,224 --> 00:31:54,144
I appreciate that.

447
00:31:54,144 --> 00:31:56,844
Lee Lee Lee Lee Lee is here with 5,000 sats.

448
00:31:56,904 --> 00:31:58,264
Coming in hot with the booze.

449
00:31:58,304 --> 00:31:59,524
No message, just value.

450
00:31:59,624 --> 00:32:00,344
Thank you very much.

451
00:32:00,424 --> 00:32:04,724
And Kiwi Bitcoin Guide is here with 4,567 satoshers.

452
00:32:05,444 --> 00:32:07,824
Thanks for sharing your agent and node methodology.

453
00:32:08,344 --> 00:32:11,784
I kind of knew the answer wouldn't be something like put a few wrappers in place and let them loose.

454
00:32:12,424 --> 00:32:16,584
But I didn't think it would actually be Nix, even though I know you talk about it all the time on Linux Unplugged.

455
00:32:16,924 --> 00:32:18,364
I guess it's another rabbit hole to discover.

456
00:32:18,604 --> 00:32:19,464
Here we go again.

457
00:32:20,924 --> 00:32:21,804
It does help.

458
00:32:21,804 --> 00:32:23,024
It helps a tremendous amount.

459
00:32:23,024 --> 00:32:25,004
and the reality is

460
00:32:25,004 --> 00:32:27,144
I don't think Nix Bitcoin

461
00:32:27,144 --> 00:32:28,444
and Nix is for everyone.

462
00:32:29,824 --> 00:32:31,044
I wish I could make,

463
00:32:31,544 --> 00:32:32,984
I wish I had a better recommendation,

464
00:32:33,224 --> 00:32:34,624
but I do think if you are

465
00:32:34,624 --> 00:32:36,204
seriously managing funds,

466
00:32:36,404 --> 00:32:37,624
if you are trying to deliver

467
00:32:37,624 --> 00:32:39,344
a certain level of service guarantee

468
00:32:39,344 --> 00:32:40,964
so your end user experience is good,

469
00:32:41,044 --> 00:32:41,764
right, like if every time

470
00:32:41,764 --> 00:32:42,644
you guys boosted it failed,

471
00:32:42,724 --> 00:32:43,204
that would suck,

472
00:32:43,464 --> 00:32:44,244
you'd stop boosting,

473
00:32:45,044 --> 00:32:46,004
then I do think it's worth

474
00:32:46,004 --> 00:32:46,644
considering Nix

475
00:32:46,644 --> 00:32:47,784
if you're putting it in production

476
00:32:47,784 --> 00:32:48,924
and you're serious about it

477
00:32:48,924 --> 00:32:50,584
or if you're even comfortable

478
00:32:50,584 --> 00:32:51,204
learning Nix

479
00:32:51,204 --> 00:32:51,744
and

480
00:32:51,744 --> 00:32:57,504
The truth be told is, with LLMs, it's pretty easy to figure out Nix stuff.

481
00:32:57,604 --> 00:33:00,764
You can just take the error message from Nix and paste it into an LLM,

482
00:33:00,884 --> 00:33:02,144
and it'll tell you what you did wrong.

483
00:33:03,364 --> 00:33:05,424
You know, or you could even just run like OpenCode.

484
00:33:06,204 --> 00:33:08,344
So give it a shot, Kiwi. Let me know.

485
00:33:08,864 --> 00:33:11,604
Your inner child is here with 2,111 sats.

486
00:33:13,264 --> 00:33:16,684
Episode 111 makes the runtime of 111 minutes.

487
00:33:16,904 --> 00:33:20,384
What do you think of the idea of 2,000 plus the previous episode to get shout-outed?

488
00:33:20,384 --> 00:33:22,864
I'm boosting 211 just in case

489
00:33:22,864 --> 00:33:24,064
oh I like this

490
00:33:24,064 --> 00:33:26,664
so it's the episode number plus 2000

491
00:33:26,664 --> 00:33:28,484
hmm you know

492
00:33:28,484 --> 00:33:30,264
it's a spicy meatball

493
00:33:30,264 --> 00:33:32,084
that's a spicy meatball

494
00:33:32,084 --> 00:33:33,924
I don't know if I remember it so you're going to have to remind me

495
00:33:33,924 --> 00:33:35,244
you'll have to boost in with

496
00:33:35,244 --> 00:33:37,804
two 112 sats and remind me I think

497
00:33:37,804 --> 00:33:40,344
you think I'm kidding but I think I will forget

498
00:33:40,344 --> 00:33:42,384
but thank you I like that

499
00:33:42,384 --> 00:33:45,224
hey Kaspelan's back with 4200 sats

500
00:33:45,224 --> 00:33:46,224
he's a good guy

501
00:33:46,224 --> 00:33:48,564
oh he sent me some value for value music

502
00:33:48,564 --> 00:33:49,264
thank you

503
00:33:49,264 --> 00:33:51,144
I will review those.

504
00:33:51,584 --> 00:33:54,224
What apps or website do you use for value for value music?

505
00:33:54,964 --> 00:33:56,764
V for V music, I think is what it's called.

506
00:33:56,864 --> 00:33:57,284
And fountain.

507
00:33:57,504 --> 00:33:58,744
Those are really my two go-tos.

508
00:33:58,884 --> 00:34:02,104
And then sometimes I'll pop over to wave lake and see what they got new and trending.

509
00:34:02,824 --> 00:34:04,684
W a V lake.com.

510
00:34:05,464 --> 00:34:07,004
Koss, it's nice to hear from you.

511
00:34:07,644 --> 00:34:08,424
Thanks for listening.

512
00:34:08,644 --> 00:34:10,044
And thanks for boosting.

513
00:34:11,004 --> 00:34:12,444
It's like hearing from an old friend.

514
00:34:12,704 --> 00:34:13,404
I love it.

515
00:34:13,964 --> 00:34:15,024
Hey, speaking of old friends,

516
00:34:15,164 --> 00:34:18,504
I'll be 1984 is here with 4,080 Satoshis.

517
00:34:18,504 --> 00:34:20,444
This is a tasty burger.

518
00:34:20,524 --> 00:34:21,204
And he says, boost.

519
00:34:21,484 --> 00:34:21,964
Boost.

520
00:34:22,164 --> 00:34:23,064
Boost, indeed.

521
00:34:23,284 --> 00:34:24,604
Thank you very much.

522
00:34:25,044 --> 00:34:28,404
Gene Bean's back with 5,781 sats.

523
00:34:29,104 --> 00:34:32,244
Regarding your system updates and agents using wrappers,

524
00:34:32,364 --> 00:34:36,124
I'm still unclear on how you keep your agents from doing things outside of what you've wrapped.

525
00:34:36,504 --> 00:34:38,424
They seem very determined to find ways at times.

526
00:34:38,459 --> 00:34:48,579
yeah that can be true um i don't i don't really experience it once i've set up rappers and skills

527
00:34:48,579 --> 00:34:55,079
and i've run through them a few times like usually i'll do it with like gpt gpt 55 or probably soon

528
00:34:55,079 --> 00:35:00,179
56 as sort of a puppet master and once i've done the cycle about three times it catches the agent

529
00:35:00,179 --> 00:35:05,239
trying to do that kind of stuff and that's always kind of been my i build the skills i build the

530
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:08,439
wrappers. Of course, you got the Knicks backing, and then I kind of run them through the puppet

531
00:35:08,439 --> 00:35:14,239
process a few times. If you're still finding issues, it might be the model. That's always

532
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:19,379
possible. He says, I'm like PJ. While I wait for the price to go up again, I'm enjoying extra

533
00:35:19,379 --> 00:35:23,479
ability to stack at a discount. Amen to that, brother. I'm just an extra boost since I didn't

534
00:35:23,479 --> 00:35:31,099
hit send last week. Thanks, Gene. I appreciate you. Ace Ackerman's back with a row of ducks.

535
00:35:31,099 --> 00:35:36,259
I think strategy will be fine, and the markets are in the process of betting Saylor's vision of digital credit.

536
00:35:36,699 --> 00:35:40,619
The biggest factor in Bitcoin's price is now the flow of money in or out of the ETFs.

537
00:35:40,679 --> 00:35:42,199
Unfortunately, not what Bitcoin represents.

538
00:35:42,739 --> 00:35:43,219
Yeah, Ace.

539
00:35:44,019 --> 00:35:47,959
In fact, I meant to make that mention is the ETFs are really driving things.

540
00:35:48,139 --> 00:35:57,159
When we saw the macro conditions cool for a bit, even while Saylor was selling, it was the ETFs were the main source of buying.

541
00:35:57,279 --> 00:35:58,739
And, of course, the DCA plebs.

542
00:35:58,739 --> 00:36:04,639
but it wasn't like another treasury company stepping in for sailor or a nation state it was

543
00:36:04,639 --> 00:36:09,599
the etfs which are a mix of everybody and i think it's such a good point that i should have made

544
00:36:09,599 --> 00:36:14,219
earlier so thank you for bringing that up and so one of the things it seems like is you can kind of

545
00:36:14,219 --> 00:36:18,719
tell the direction bitcoin's going by watching the direction the etf flows are going the harder

546
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:22,839
the flow out the harder the bitcoin is going to slide the stronger the flows in the more the

547
00:36:22,839 --> 00:36:23,559
Bitcoin is going to pump.

548
00:36:24,899 --> 00:36:28,979
There are a couple of APIs out there you can point your agent at, but not a lot.

549
00:36:29,459 --> 00:36:34,539
But there are a couple you can point your agent at and then, you know, ask it how the ETFs are doing.

550
00:36:34,659 --> 00:36:35,879
And it'll just give you a nice summary.

551
00:36:36,199 --> 00:36:37,359
Not that I do that, Ace.

552
00:36:38,539 --> 00:36:40,439
But I'm just saying you can.

553
00:36:40,439 --> 00:36:42,139
The traders love the vol.

554
00:36:42,279 --> 00:36:43,039
Good to hear from you.

555
00:36:43,559 --> 00:36:46,779
Dash Dummies here with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Satoshi.

556
00:36:46,879 --> 00:36:47,799
That's a baseball boost.

557
00:36:47,939 --> 00:36:52,059
So the combination is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.

558
00:36:52,059 --> 00:36:55,399
episode 109 mentioned ETFs is a boomer thing.

559
00:36:55,519 --> 00:36:59,359
I'm in the UK and I'm considering using the strategy ETF inside stocks and

560
00:36:59,359 --> 00:36:59,699
shares.

561
00:37:00,139 --> 00:37:04,399
I say tax free to generate yield without touching my main Bitcoin stack.

562
00:37:04,919 --> 00:37:05,839
Keeps liquidity if needed.

563
00:37:05,939 --> 00:37:06,339
Too risky?

564
00:37:06,479 --> 00:37:06,839
Thoughts?

565
00:37:07,219 --> 00:37:07,539
I mean,

566
00:37:07,699 --> 00:37:07,939
you know,

567
00:37:07,959 --> 00:37:10,839
my advice would always be try it with the amount of money you're,

568
00:37:10,919 --> 00:37:12,799
you're comfortable not putting into Bitcoin.

569
00:37:13,499 --> 00:37:14,279
That said,

570
00:37:14,499 --> 00:37:14,859
uh,

571
00:37:14,939 --> 00:37:15,059
I,

572
00:37:15,459 --> 00:37:15,659
you know,

573
00:37:15,699 --> 00:37:15,819
I,

574
00:37:15,979 --> 00:37:17,739
when I say that they're a boomer product,

575
00:37:17,759 --> 00:37:21,339
I kind of tease because you could see a world where if loan products or

576
00:37:21,339 --> 00:37:26,579
something like that or lines of credit got really compelling with ETFs and you could swap Bitcoin

577
00:37:26,579 --> 00:37:30,819
into an ETF and leverage that in a way that was safe and you weren't going to get wrecked and then

578
00:37:30,819 --> 00:37:35,239
swap back to Satoshi's. I mean, even people like me might take advantage of that when the business

579
00:37:35,239 --> 00:37:39,759
needs it or something like that. So it's all about your risk profile and the amount of money you're

580
00:37:39,759 --> 00:37:42,739
willing to not put into Bitcoin. A lot of people say it's the amount of money you're willing to

581
00:37:42,739 --> 00:37:47,099
lose. I think it's a different perspective. It's what is the amount of money you're not willing to

582
00:37:47,099 --> 00:37:52,799
put into Bitcoin and will it do better than Bitcoin? It might. I mean, recently it might've

583
00:37:52,799 --> 00:37:57,479
traditionally, no. And every time I've sat down with somebody and we've put everything out on the

584
00:37:57,479 --> 00:37:59,719
chart and we've looked at it, it's okay. If you would have put your money here, you would have

585
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:03,859
put your money here. You would have put your money here. Inevitably it performs best in Bitcoin over

586
00:38:03,859 --> 00:38:09,819
a five to 10 year period. Uh, maybe AI continues to be a liquidity suck and that money goes in other

587
00:38:09,819 --> 00:38:14,719
places of the market, but you know, that's hard to say, but dash dummy, I think it's, it's not a

588
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,859
foolish question and I think it's

589
00:38:16,859 --> 00:38:18,259
worth experimenting with personally.

590
00:38:18,819 --> 00:38:20,419
I'd like to know how it goes for you.

591
00:38:20,559 --> 00:38:20,999
But,

592
00:38:21,599 --> 00:38:24,459
you know, be sure you can tolerate that risk

593
00:38:24,459 --> 00:38:25,479
and not putting it into Bitcoin.

594
00:38:26,659 --> 00:38:28,659
Good question. Thanks for

595
00:38:28,659 --> 00:38:30,199
the boost. Mix is here with

596
00:38:30,199 --> 00:38:32,399
3,333 Satoshis.

597
00:38:32,599 --> 00:38:34,539
I like you. You're a hot

598
00:38:34,539 --> 00:38:36,559
ticket. No message, just value. Thank

599
00:38:36,559 --> 00:38:38,539
you very much. Appreciate that.

600
00:38:39,059 --> 00:38:40,359
Love down baby on

601
00:38:40,359 --> 00:38:42,459
comes in with 2,000 sats. I don't

602
00:38:42,459 --> 00:38:44,599
understand what the heck is going on

603
00:38:44,599 --> 00:38:46,719
here. We could call him Tim. He says, you may remember me

604
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:48,259
as Sir Lurks a lot. Oh!

605
00:38:50,839 --> 00:38:52,339
Coming in hot with the boost!

606
00:38:52,399 --> 00:38:53,499
It's Lurks!

607
00:38:55,519 --> 00:38:56,399
You've been an inspiration.

608
00:38:56,699 --> 00:38:57,599
Okay, well, come on.

609
00:38:58,139 --> 00:39:00,579
Love Down Babylon is the name of my own value for value

610
00:39:00,579 --> 00:39:02,279
podcast, which I'll be releasing soon.

611
00:39:02,799 --> 00:39:04,599
Babylon is in the ancient city where the Jews

612
00:39:04,599 --> 00:39:06,419
were held captive. Rastafarius

613
00:39:06,419 --> 00:39:08,539
uses Babylon to mean the dominant culture

614
00:39:08,539 --> 00:39:10,679
of control and separation. The ills

615
00:39:10,679 --> 00:39:12,759
of our modern dystopia. The prison

616
00:39:12,759 --> 00:39:14,459
of mental slavery, the Matrix.

617
00:39:14,599 --> 00:39:19,079
My podcast is an attempt to share my journey out of my own mental slavery.

618
00:39:19,619 --> 00:39:22,419
I got cut off there, but I'll plug the podcast one more time.

619
00:39:22,559 --> 00:39:31,999
It is Love Down Babylon, and it'll be a value-for-value podcast by Sir Lurks, a.k.a. Tim, artist formerly known as Sir Lurks a lot.

620
00:39:32,439 --> 00:39:33,579
Lurks, it was good to hear from you.

621
00:39:34,199 --> 00:39:37,899
Thank you very much, and best of luck with the new podcast.

622
00:39:39,439 --> 00:39:43,639
Nakamato 6102 is here with 15,864 sats.

623
00:39:44,599 --> 00:39:48,579
This is the way.

624
00:39:48,579 --> 00:39:54,179
When I hear Sailor explain, MSTR, or strike, it just goes over my head.

625
00:39:55,139 --> 00:39:58,039
It served me well to only invest in things that I understand.

626
00:39:58,439 --> 00:40:00,559
I just keep stacking sats into cold storage.

627
00:40:00,779 --> 00:40:01,439
Thanks for the value.

628
00:40:02,079 --> 00:40:05,179
Nakamoto, that's such a wise, I believe thing.

629
00:40:05,339 --> 00:40:10,799
It's like the nice thing about Bitcoin as its core simplicity is you buy the satoshis,

630
00:40:11,019 --> 00:40:13,779
you eventually put them in cold storage, and you shut up.

631
00:40:13,779 --> 00:40:15,039
And you just sit on them.

632
00:40:15,219 --> 00:40:20,019
And you don't have to worry about fiat games in the stock market or 401k stuff.

633
00:40:20,019 --> 00:40:24,099
It's like you just put them in there and you just let the government debase the currency.

634
00:40:24,219 --> 00:40:27,119
You just the natural process that they're engaging in.

635
00:40:27,219 --> 00:40:29,899
And it's you don't have to do this gambling in this betting.

636
00:40:29,899 --> 00:40:36,659
And it does mean in periods like right now in the short term, we don't make as much as maybe we could have.

637
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:39,239
But we're betting on the long term that this thing's going to rip.

638
00:40:40,059 --> 00:40:42,779
And the reality is it's simpler.

639
00:40:42,779 --> 00:40:56,259
It's less stress. It's less to think about. And there's so much to think about these days. Savings shouldn't be complicated. You should buy the sats, eventually put them in cold storage and shut up. It's really simple.

640
00:40:56,259 --> 00:41:02,219
so I you know when I think about buying stocks and and you know getting dividends and you know

641
00:41:02,219 --> 00:41:07,799
putting things into things that give me some sort of yield all that sounds appealing but it sounds

642
00:41:07,799 --> 00:41:13,059
complicated and risky and I don't really understand how it works and I understand how Bitcoin works

643
00:41:13,059 --> 00:41:18,779
so I think you nailed it Nakamoto great boost thank you very much for boosting that and keeping

644
00:41:18,779 --> 00:41:25,299
them keep that wisdom coming that's the kind of stuff I love thank you for helping us help you

645
00:41:25,299 --> 00:41:27,499
help us all. Hey, Adversary

646
00:41:27,499 --> 00:41:29,819
17's here with 8,192

647
00:41:29,819 --> 00:41:31,459
Satoshis. 10 Goldblums out

648
00:41:31,459 --> 00:41:33,319
of a possible 10 Goldblums. I'll take some

649
00:41:33,319 --> 00:41:33,879
Sailor stats.

650
00:41:35,479 --> 00:41:37,019
Yes, strategy selling is good.

651
00:41:37,299 --> 00:41:39,319
Along with all the other whales out there because it

652
00:41:39,319 --> 00:41:40,679
means more stats for me.

653
00:41:42,499 --> 00:41:43,339
Yes, to cheap

654
00:41:43,339 --> 00:41:45,299
stats. Plus one also to a Nix

655
00:41:45,299 --> 00:41:47,059
OS node. I don't feel like every

656
00:41:47,059 --> 00:41:49,199
I ever have to worry about doing

657
00:41:49,199 --> 00:41:50,639
updates on my server anymore.

658
00:41:51,159 --> 00:41:53,279
It is really nice. I think

659
00:41:53,279 --> 00:41:59,299
if the world understood it would be the way all computers are thanks adversaries appreciate you

660
00:41:59,299 --> 00:42:04,379
it's always good to hear from you all right our next boost is user 54 with 10 000 sats

661
00:42:04,379 --> 00:42:14,099
no messages value thank you very much and then we got sleets stacks sats coming in with 8888 sats

662
00:42:14,099 --> 00:42:26,799
how's the magic number of the week 888 speaking of incorporating bitcoin into farming i have an

663
00:42:26,799 --> 00:42:33,799
ant miner s9 that works fantastic as a 650 watt space heater while earning around 375 sats per day

664
00:42:33,799 --> 00:42:39,419
through brains pool i also have a dozen chickens i've thought about combining the two and keeping

665
00:42:39,419 --> 00:42:43,559
my chickens happier during the winter i also will get wi-fi out i'd have to get wi-fi out in the

666
00:42:43,559 --> 00:42:47,159
coop. Well, yes, it's worth it. Somebody who put Wi-Fi out in his coop, let me tell you, it's worth

667
00:42:47,159 --> 00:42:53,219
it because then you can also put cameras and sensors out there. Worth it. Also, I'd like to

668
00:42:53,219 --> 00:42:59,239
know how you get it at 650 watts and how loud it is and if it would be too loud because I'm also

669
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:05,059
going to have to heat the hen house. I don't have a lot of power out in that area, but I might be

670
00:43:05,059 --> 00:43:10,079
able to get five, 600 watts in that area. And then if there was a way to duct that minor into the

671
00:43:10,079 --> 00:43:22,513
penthouse why not if i gonna be running 700 watts for heat anyways why not as long as the heat wasn too much You know what I mean Let me know what you think sleets

672
00:43:23,153 --> 00:43:23,833
Is that how I say it?

673
00:43:23,873 --> 00:43:24,193
Sleets?

674
00:43:24,973 --> 00:43:25,633
S-L-E.

675
00:43:25,773 --> 00:43:26,093
Sleaze?

676
00:43:26,433 --> 00:43:26,793
Sleaze.

677
00:43:26,993 --> 00:43:27,313
Sleaze.

678
00:43:27,613 --> 00:43:28,233
I don't know.

679
00:43:28,533 --> 00:43:29,233
Slee stacker.

680
00:43:29,393 --> 00:43:30,233
Slee stacker.

681
00:43:30,293 --> 00:43:30,533
That's it.

682
00:43:30,573 --> 00:43:30,873
Slee.

683
00:43:31,093 --> 00:43:31,333
Yeah?

684
00:43:31,613 --> 00:43:31,953
Ha ha.

685
00:43:32,193 --> 00:43:33,073
I'm going to get it.

686
00:43:33,353 --> 00:43:35,353
You make me want to be a better man.

687
00:43:35,453 --> 00:43:37,193
You keep boosting it and I'll have to get it right.

688
00:43:37,393 --> 00:43:37,953
You know what I mean?

689
00:43:38,993 --> 00:43:40,393
But that's not possible.

690
00:43:40,533 --> 00:43:41,553
Nothing can do that.

691
00:43:41,553 --> 00:43:42,273
Come on now.

692
00:43:42,373 --> 00:43:42,973
Come on now.

693
00:43:43,073 --> 00:43:46,533
All right. Clear the gates. We've got a little royalty here.

694
00:43:47,013 --> 00:43:52,833
Member boost from King Arthur coming in, and he's giving us the Holy Grail grenade clip.

695
00:43:53,253 --> 00:43:59,093
Whenever Bitcoin goes, we will follow Chris, wherever it goes, be it BIP 110, 150 or 1500.

696
00:43:59,453 --> 00:44:03,593
As long as you accept sats for interaction and we're alive, your true fans will follow.

697
00:44:04,013 --> 00:44:05,853
And King Arthur did the right thing.

698
00:44:05,853 --> 00:44:14,453
He sent me the time code of the YouTube clip that he was thinking of for the King Arthur boost, and I will play it now.

699
00:44:14,993 --> 00:44:16,853
One, two, five.

700
00:44:17,433 --> 00:44:17,633
Three.

701
00:44:23,133 --> 00:44:24,913
Solid, solid, solid choice.

702
00:44:25,013 --> 00:44:25,893
I think that's very solid.

703
00:44:26,353 --> 00:44:27,653
I will try to remember to clip that.

704
00:44:27,973 --> 00:44:30,153
It's a little long, but it's pretty solid.

705
00:44:30,333 --> 00:44:31,153
Thank you, King Arthur.

706
00:44:31,393 --> 00:44:32,593
Appreciate you being a member.

707
00:44:32,993 --> 00:44:34,913
Thank you, everybody who boosted the show.

708
00:44:34,913 --> 00:44:39,033
really. I mean, I put it out there for free. You would not believe the amount of time I work

709
00:44:39,033 --> 00:44:44,973
on it. And, you know, I'm not complaining because this, I would rather do this than anything else

710
00:44:44,973 --> 00:44:49,073
in the world. But I very much appreciate that some of you do find value in it and recognize

711
00:44:49,073 --> 00:44:53,013
the hard work that goes into it. So thank you everybody who's either a member on Fountain or

712
00:44:53,013 --> 00:44:58,473
Jupiter Party or those of you who boosted this week. Let's total it all up. So when we look at

713
00:44:58,473 --> 00:45:03,293
our stream sats, those of you with a podcasting to do app that just stream the sats as you listened,

714
00:45:03,293 --> 00:45:05,073
28 of you out there.

715
00:45:05,353 --> 00:45:06,693
And really not too bad.

716
00:45:07,193 --> 00:45:08,593
Collectively, you sat streamers

717
00:45:08,593 --> 00:45:11,013
stacked 64,901 Satoshis.

718
00:45:11,273 --> 00:45:12,293
Not too shabby.

719
00:45:12,353 --> 00:45:13,293
Thank you very much.

720
00:45:13,653 --> 00:45:14,733
When you combine that

721
00:45:14,733 --> 00:45:15,933
with our FiatFun coupon,

722
00:45:16,013 --> 00:45:17,693
oh, I don't think we got any fun FiatFun.

723
00:45:17,753 --> 00:45:18,993
It was all Satoshis this week.

724
00:45:19,233 --> 00:45:20,433
We had one free member boost

725
00:45:20,433 --> 00:45:21,713
and the rest was all Sats.

726
00:45:22,073 --> 00:45:23,853
We stacked a grand total of

727
00:45:23,853 --> 00:45:26,093
364 Satoshis,

728
00:45:26,413 --> 00:45:28,173
364,000, I should say,

729
00:45:28,253 --> 00:45:30,193
295 Satoshis.

730
00:45:33,293 --> 00:45:36,573
Oh.

731
00:45:42,493 --> 00:45:45,633
Yeah, boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com is the way to do it,

732
00:45:45,633 --> 00:45:48,513
or with a podcasting 2.0 app.

733
00:45:48,573 --> 00:45:51,733
I think that's the first week since we launched the Web Boost

734
00:45:51,733 --> 00:45:53,573
that it was all SATs still.

735
00:45:53,853 --> 00:45:55,133
Nobody Fiat Fun Coupon.

736
00:45:55,193 --> 00:45:56,793
You know, the TWIB audience, you guys.

737
00:45:57,013 --> 00:45:58,413
You guys are so hardcore.

738
00:45:59,233 --> 00:46:00,253
So thank you very much.

739
00:46:00,353 --> 00:46:01,733
Appreciate you for supporting this,

740
00:46:01,733 --> 00:46:04,173
And you can do it real easy these days.

741
00:46:04,293 --> 00:46:05,533
Real easy if you haven't tried it out.

742
00:46:05,813 --> 00:46:06,353
Go check it out.

743
00:46:06,393 --> 00:46:06,993
We built that.

744
00:46:07,373 --> 00:46:13,533
It's sitting on top of the Lightning Network in the podcasting 2.0 standard spec using all open source and Lightning on the back end.

745
00:46:13,913 --> 00:46:15,093
It's pretty rad.

746
00:46:15,233 --> 00:46:16,193
I'm kind of proud of it.

747
00:46:26,773 --> 00:46:28,373
Well, how about some updates?

748
00:46:29,173 --> 00:46:30,773
Quick quantum update for you.

749
00:46:30,773 --> 00:46:35,413
And Blockstream Research has been working on a post-quantum signature opcode for Bitcoin.

750
00:46:36,113 --> 00:46:40,513
It'll be opt-in because it will be larger signatures.

751
00:46:40,913 --> 00:46:43,293
But it'll be opt-in, so not everybody will have to do it.

752
00:46:43,293 --> 00:46:50,933
And Blockstream claims that it has been optimized for performance up to three transactions a second with 580-byte signatures.

753
00:46:51,713 --> 00:46:55,413
Now, that is actually still well ahead of its heavier NIST alternatives.

754
00:46:55,413 --> 00:46:57,553
by at least Blockstream's framing,

755
00:46:57,693 --> 00:47:01,773
this is still the more performant alternative.

756
00:47:01,913 --> 00:47:03,453
For ourselves at Blockstream,

757
00:47:03,593 --> 00:47:04,493
we have a research team

758
00:47:04,493 --> 00:47:06,753
that's been working on quantum for over a year now.

759
00:47:06,873 --> 00:47:08,493
And we have a number of papers

760
00:47:08,493 --> 00:47:09,833
and a specific proposal

761
00:47:09,833 --> 00:47:12,653
for a Bitcoin optimized version of the NIST standard,

762
00:47:12,793 --> 00:47:14,953
which was released in October, 2024.

763
00:47:15,173 --> 00:47:15,853
So quite recently,

764
00:47:16,053 --> 00:47:17,493
I think that's a reasonable path

765
00:47:17,493 --> 00:47:19,533
for Bitcoin to add another signature scheme.

766
00:47:19,773 --> 00:47:21,633
It already did add one in 2021.

767
00:47:21,953 --> 00:47:22,573
So there's a precedent

768
00:47:22,573 --> 00:47:24,693
and that would then be an opt-in way

769
00:47:24,693 --> 00:47:26,373
for people to be quantum ready

770
00:47:26,373 --> 00:47:29,213
without paying the cost of the big signatures today.

771
00:47:29,353 --> 00:47:30,473
So I think that's important

772
00:47:30,473 --> 00:47:31,933
because you don't want people to have

773
00:47:31,933 --> 00:47:33,793
a kind of cost deterrent from adoption.

774
00:47:33,953 --> 00:47:36,333
Then hopefully we can get a visibility in the market

775
00:47:36,333 --> 00:47:37,593
of how many people are ready

776
00:47:37,593 --> 00:47:39,233
and adapt from that in the future

777
00:47:39,233 --> 00:47:41,173
if the rate of hardware progress speeds up.

778
00:47:41,413 --> 00:47:42,473
I like to see them cook.

779
00:47:43,013 --> 00:47:44,093
Let Bloxstream cook,

780
00:47:44,173 --> 00:47:46,393
and they've got the liquid network to experiment things on,

781
00:47:46,453 --> 00:47:47,853
and they've got the engineering talent

782
00:47:47,853 --> 00:47:49,113
to know what the hell they're doing.

783
00:47:49,213 --> 00:47:50,573
So I'm going to keep an eye on that for you.

784
00:47:50,933 --> 00:47:52,033
Now I want to switch gears.

785
00:47:52,913 --> 00:47:56,453
Jack Mahlers of Strike made a pretty big announcement this week.

786
00:47:57,053 --> 00:48:01,033
Strike announced what they are calling volatility-proof loans.

787
00:48:02,593 --> 00:48:07,613
Loans that don't get liquidated regardless of how low the Bitcoin price goes.

788
00:48:08,093 --> 00:48:14,853
So for some context, here's how loans, basically all Bitcoin-backed loans, but loans on Strike typically work.

789
00:48:16,113 --> 00:48:19,593
LTV at 65%, we start issuing our customers a warning.

790
00:48:19,593 --> 00:48:25,133
Hey, here's a push notification, an email, pick up the phone, give you guys a call, let you know where your loan stands.

791
00:48:25,613 --> 00:48:27,053
And an LTV of 70 percent.

792
00:48:27,213 --> 00:48:30,833
Just to make it clear, LTV would be like I think it's a loan to value.

793
00:48:30,993 --> 00:48:35,473
It's a ratio of the amount of Bitcoin you have and the value of your loan.

794
00:48:35,613 --> 00:48:40,833
So they want often to see 50 percent more Bitcoin collateral than the loans for.

795
00:48:40,933 --> 00:48:45,873
So if you're going to get a five thousand dollar loan, you have to put down ten thousand dollars of Bitcoin.

796
00:48:45,873 --> 00:48:51,373
and then the amount that a ratio of the collateral to the amount of your loan especially when bitcoin

797
00:48:51,373 --> 00:48:57,213
price is going down is called your ltv give you guys a call let you know where your loan stands

798
00:48:57,213 --> 00:49:03,273
and ltv of 70 we issue our first margin call where we give you 72 hours that's three full days

799
00:49:03,273 --> 00:49:08,753
to act that could pay down the loan a little bit add some more bitcoin as collateral and just get

800
00:49:08,753 --> 00:49:13,533
yourself into a good standing let us know that you're aware and you're addressing your loan

801
00:49:13,533 --> 00:49:31,213
And an LTV of 85%, we have no choice but to start to partially sell some of the collateral to get you back in good standing. Now, I think we do this best in the industry because we do not sell all of your Bitcoin. We would not do that. We don't want to do that. We care too much about you guys.

802
00:49:31,213 --> 00:49:43,953
But what we have to do is at that LTV threshold, we start to sell little amounts to get you back into these healthier LTVs. And that's how our product traditionally has worked up until this point.

803
00:49:43,953 --> 00:50:04,653
Yeah, and that's pretty much how all Bitcoin backed loans work. Strike has a pretty good plan in the sense that they do give you that three day notice and they kind of have different thresholds and then they do only liquidate as much as they have to. There's various different policies there for the different lenders and the DeFi program sometimes just automatically liquidate as soon as a price point is hit, etc, etc.

804
00:50:04,653 --> 00:50:17,133
But that's how the strike ones work traditionally is when the price of Bitcoin dropped, when you no longer had the collateral to cover your loan, you had a few days to get more Bitcoin in there or pay off the amount of your loan that you need to pay off.

805
00:50:17,793 --> 00:50:23,113
They're changing that now with what they call a volatility free loan.

806
00:50:23,833 --> 00:50:25,853
And Jack introduces that here.

807
00:50:25,853 --> 00:50:32,293
Just solve it. Introducing volatility-proof loans. A Bitcoin-backed loan that a price move

808
00:50:32,293 --> 00:50:39,113
can never trigger liquidation of your collateral. No warnings, no margin calls, no automatic sell-off.

809
00:50:39,353 --> 00:50:44,953
I'm telling you guys, this is not a drill. You're hearing me correctly. So to make it very clear,

810
00:50:45,073 --> 00:50:51,553
there's no price move that can trigger a liquidation. So as I have in this visual,

811
00:50:51,553 --> 00:50:56,853
the Bitcoin price moves every day. It can go up 300% in a year, but then it goes down 50%, 80%.

812
00:50:57,393 --> 00:51:02,693
Obviously, the trajectory is up, but that level of volatility when you have a Bitcoin-backed loan

813
00:51:02,693 --> 00:51:07,553
is the biggest amount of feedback we've gotten. If you open a volatility-proof loan,

814
00:51:07,873 --> 00:51:13,373
the Bitcoin never moves. I'm going to say that again. It never moves. We don't care

815
00:51:13,373 --> 00:51:21,253
what the price is. We don't care the wick down. We don't care the LTV. You're good. You're good.

816
00:51:21,253 --> 00:51:25,933
When you get a volatility-proof loan, we have your back.

817
00:51:26,533 --> 00:51:30,533
No warnings, no margin calls, no liquidations.

818
00:51:30,833 --> 00:51:32,893
You sleep well at night.

819
00:51:33,233 --> 00:51:35,093
Now, it almost sounds too good to be true.

820
00:51:35,233 --> 00:51:36,593
So how can they do this?

821
00:51:36,953 --> 00:51:39,173
Well, for one thing, it is going to cost you more.

822
00:51:39,533 --> 00:51:40,313
At night.

823
00:51:40,633 --> 00:51:43,753
Now, how does it compare in the other capacities?

824
00:51:43,933 --> 00:51:47,573
The maximum initial LTV is 45%, not 50%.

825
00:51:47,573 --> 00:51:49,973
That's marginal, but I want to point it out.

826
00:51:49,973 --> 00:51:52,573
transparency, transparency, transparency.

827
00:51:52,573 --> 00:52:03,048
The terms we gonna start this out at only a six month term Now this is the first product of its kind to market accessible to everyone in an app It really really innovative It very

828
00:52:03,128 --> 00:52:09,368
very new. So don't hold me to all of this. I'd love to offer a six year volatility proof loan.

829
00:52:09,368 --> 00:52:14,288
And I think someday we will be able to get there. But for now, the term is six months

830
00:52:14,288 --> 00:52:20,168
on a volatility proof loan. We have to charge more for this. The secret sauce is that we're

831
00:52:20,168 --> 00:52:24,828
taking the extra charge that we're giving you guys and we're putting on hedges in the market

832
00:52:24,828 --> 00:52:29,468
to protect all of us. Okay. So it's very sophisticated. It's not easy. It's very

833
00:52:29,468 --> 00:52:36,268
difficult actually, but of course it is worth it, but it has to be more expensive. So we add 2.95%

834
00:52:36,268 --> 00:52:44,648
to your rate. Now our standard loans start at 7.75%. So for me, I think Bitcoin is going to

835
00:52:44,648 --> 00:52:53,788
outperform 7.75 to 11.25%, even if you add 2% to 3% on top of that. I love the pricing. I'm a

836
00:52:53,788 --> 00:52:58,768
customer of the product. I think it's great, but you guys should know that. The protection isn't

837
00:52:58,768 --> 00:53:05,128
free. And then as far as retrieval of the collateral, our standard loan, we allow you

838
00:53:05,128 --> 00:53:10,708
to take the Bitcoin back if the price appreciates. Let's say you open a 50% LTV loan and Bitcoin

839
00:53:10,708 --> 00:53:15,508
quadruples to new all-time highs and we're in a euphoric bull run, we don't want all of that

840
00:53:15,508 --> 00:53:20,728
collateral. Feel free to take some back. We just want the minimum to collateralize the loan we gave

841
00:53:20,728 --> 00:53:26,628
you. There is no collateral retrieval for volatility proof loans, at least not yet. So I want to be

842
00:53:26,628 --> 00:53:31,948
very clear about the trade-offs. But if you're okay with a slightly shorter term and a little

843
00:53:31,948 --> 00:53:39,508
bit higher of a fee, there is no price move that can liquidate you. So just to reiterate, this is

844
00:53:39,508 --> 00:53:45,708
the price of protection, the term six months, the lower maximum starting LTV, the slightly higher

845
00:53:45,708 --> 00:53:52,068
rate, and the fact that during that six months, we don't want you to come and pull the collateral

846
00:53:52,068 --> 00:53:59,428
Bitcoin back out. And this is all for now. Let us launch it. Let us build our feet here. But

847
00:53:59,428 --> 00:54:04,908
we've been testing the product internally. It's unbelievable. I'm very proud of the team. I think

848
00:54:04,908 --> 00:54:09,788
this is truly innovative and a sign of the times of where all of these features and tools are going.

849
00:54:10,588 --> 00:54:14,088
I do think it's a great product. I mean, the six month term is too short for me.

850
00:54:15,028 --> 00:54:18,508
But, you know, maybe if you time it right, it could be just fine for some people.

851
00:54:18,748 --> 00:54:21,808
But as he said, this is a version one and I'm going to keep my eye on it.

852
00:54:21,828 --> 00:54:26,968
But I like where they're going now with the line of credit, the bill pay, the standard loan,

853
00:54:27,508 --> 00:54:34,128
and now the volatility proof loan. Plus, they just have a pretty good general app interface and all

854
00:54:34,128 --> 00:54:39,328
that and they have excellent lightning network support. I'm not, you know, I've sort of hesitated

855
00:54:39,328 --> 00:54:43,528
on my support of strike, but over the years I've just seen them continue to deliver on what they

856
00:54:43,528 --> 00:54:47,688
say they're going to do. So for right now, I'm, I'm a fan of where they're at and I like the way

857
00:54:47,688 --> 00:54:51,488
they're rolling this stuff out and they just seem like they stay heads down and they just keep

858
00:54:51,488 --> 00:54:55,988
working on it and keep building and producing the stuff that their customers are asking for.

859
00:54:57,208 --> 00:55:02,888
Now in the category of a thing that nobody asked for, let's do a BIP 110 update, or of course the

860
00:55:02,888 --> 00:55:08,668
reduced data temporary soft fork, which is promised to limit transaction data by disabling

861
00:55:08,668 --> 00:55:13,748
certain op codes in order to eliminate certain types of spam. At least that's what we were told.

862
00:55:14,648 --> 00:55:18,348
And then we're told it's not about spam until then we're told about it's about spam again.

863
00:55:18,848 --> 00:55:24,368
I've been going back and forth with people and I find that to be exhausting. But I do have a few

864
00:55:24,368 --> 00:55:30,508
BIP 110 updates for you. So we're about 30 days out from BIP 110 activating. Very exciting. And

865
00:55:30,508 --> 00:55:36,968
this week, the ordinals community announced that they were now BIP 110 compatible. Yes, friends,

866
00:55:38,088 --> 00:55:45,448
ordinals are now BIP 110 ready. Looking right here at the GitHub, the issue is ready to go.

867
00:55:45,448 --> 00:55:51,128
The work is done. They write, this PR adds an alternative inscription envelope. This allows

868
00:55:51,128 --> 00:55:57,628
them to push inscriptions and ordinals into the BIP 110 network. And they say right here,

869
00:55:57,628 --> 00:55:58,448
It looks good to me.

870
00:55:58,608 --> 00:56:01,148
Let's wait until BIP-110 activates to merge this.

871
00:56:02,428 --> 00:56:08,608
So once again, proving that BIP-110 will never stop spam.

872
00:56:09,548 --> 00:56:18,348
There's also a group of people that are organizing a massive spam plan for the BIP-110 chain once it goes live and loading up with crap.

873
00:56:18,968 --> 00:56:26,228
It turns out that BIP-110 makes ordinals less than 1% more expensive while also breaking generic miniscript support.

874
00:56:26,228 --> 00:56:34,808
So the big problem that BIP-110 has right now is besides less than about 20% node adoption, they have around 1% miner adoption.

875
00:56:35,428 --> 00:56:38,268
But Ocean, they have a plan to tip the scales.

876
00:56:39,048 --> 00:56:41,988
Hi, everyone. I'm Mark Ortimko, president and co-founder of Ocean.

877
00:56:42,548 --> 00:56:49,208
Over the past several weeks, we've seen a strong uptick in interest from miners looking for a simple way to express their support for BIP-110.

878
00:56:49,848 --> 00:56:54,408
We've listened, and today we're launching a second Stratum endpoint for BIP-110 signaling.

879
00:56:54,408 --> 00:57:00,088
up until now datum has been the primary mechanism for block construction and optional signaling on

880
00:57:00,088 --> 00:57:05,048
ocean datum gives miners full control over how blocks are built and whether or not they choose

881
00:57:05,048 --> 00:57:10,588
to include signaling in the blocks they find this update simply adds another option for miners who

882
00:57:10,588 --> 00:57:15,968
need a dedicated endpoint for signaling at ocean we believe miner sovereignty is essential to

883
00:57:15,968 --> 00:57:20,908
bitcoin's long-term success miners should have a voice and we're building the tools to give them

884
00:57:20,908 --> 00:57:31,928
one. Thank you. Yes, part of what gets me about it is the way they phrase it. So it's manipulative

885
00:57:31,928 --> 00:57:37,788
because the default will now be that you signal for BIP-110 unless you use the non-default endpoint.

886
00:57:38,308 --> 00:57:42,208
Well, how many miners are following social media that are going to catch this little nuance?

887
00:57:42,808 --> 00:57:47,888
How many people that signed up for Ocean because they believed in the promise of decentralizing

888
00:57:47,888 --> 00:57:53,328
and helping what people perceived was the actual threat,

889
00:57:53,448 --> 00:57:56,268
which was centralization of mining and hash rate.

890
00:57:56,508 --> 00:58:00,808
So they sign up for Ocean believing that they're taking a stand against that,

891
00:58:00,868 --> 00:58:02,768
that they're decentralizing the hash rate,

892
00:58:02,988 --> 00:58:06,148
only to have Ocean turn on them to be a political actor

893
00:58:06,148 --> 00:58:10,288
and now, by default, make their mining signal for BIP-110

894
00:58:10,288 --> 00:58:12,508
unless people go in and change their configuration.

895
00:58:14,968 --> 00:58:17,688
And this has been a very tidy little coordination.

896
00:58:17,888 --> 00:58:21,328
because you've got Start9 on the node side,

897
00:58:22,128 --> 00:58:25,528
using the ideals of Bitcoin to sell the Start9 node and hardware.

898
00:58:26,228 --> 00:58:30,648
And they're now the primary source of the plebs running Nott's nodes and signaling BIP-110.

899
00:58:31,048 --> 00:58:35,208
They also made it super easy to spin up a bunch of SOC nodes on Tor

900
00:58:35,208 --> 00:58:37,988
to inflate the numbers of support for BIP-110,

901
00:58:38,688 --> 00:58:43,468
making Start9 a political actor and pushing people towards Nott's and BIP-110.

902
00:58:43,468 --> 00:58:52,048
And then you have Ocean, who promised to save us from centralized mining, flipping on the signal for BIP-110 by default.

903
00:58:52,168 --> 00:58:55,288
Again, another abuse of power and political action.

904
00:58:57,728 --> 00:59:02,848
The real irony was that I wanted to put my mining hash rate into Ocean.

905
00:59:03,868 --> 00:59:05,748
That's where I wanted to put my hash rate.

906
00:59:06,868 --> 00:59:10,628
And for BIP-110 to be successful, they're going to need a lot more knots nodes.

907
00:59:10,628 --> 00:59:15,068
that would effectively centralize Bitcoin around Luke Dasher.

908
00:59:15,908 --> 00:59:19,008
And Ocean, who employs Bitcoin Mechanic,

909
00:59:19,228 --> 00:59:21,608
who has been one of the loudest advocates for BIP-110,

910
00:59:22,068 --> 00:59:24,308
is the head of communications for Ocean.

911
00:59:24,728 --> 00:59:26,288
All very tidy there.

912
00:59:26,528 --> 00:59:28,148
And then you have Start9 no doubt benefiting

913
00:59:28,148 --> 00:59:30,008
from their besties running the Bitcoin network.

914
00:59:30,208 --> 00:59:32,188
So you will have Luke running the node,

915
00:59:32,768 --> 00:59:34,888
Start9 running the deployment for the end users,

916
00:59:35,268 --> 00:59:37,088
and Ocean signaling BIP-110.

917
00:59:37,228 --> 00:59:38,928
They're trying to centralize power.

918
00:59:39,008 --> 00:59:39,668
It won't work.

919
00:59:40,628 --> 00:59:43,908
It's kind of pathetic, but it's obvious what's happening.

920
00:59:44,408 --> 00:59:48,548
And the plebs out there, they want this because it feels good.

921
00:59:48,608 --> 00:59:49,568
It looks like the right thing.

922
00:59:49,628 --> 00:59:51,928
They want to make Bitcoin hard money, and everybody agrees with that.

923
00:59:51,968 --> 00:59:53,448
We want Bitcoin to be the hardest money in the world.

924
00:59:53,508 --> 00:59:55,948
It is the hardest money in the world, and we don't want it to be filled with spam.

925
00:59:57,028 --> 00:59:58,568
But it's not being filled with spam.

926
01:00:00,188 --> 01:00:03,548
There is an economic system to sort that out,

927
01:00:03,548 --> 01:00:05,388
and right now it's telling us it's not a problem.

928
01:00:05,388 --> 01:00:13,488
transaction fees are one sat right now for for a high speed transaction or a medium speed like

929
01:00:13,488 --> 01:00:18,628
they're just one sat per vbyte right now just it doesn't matter what you want to do or how much you

930
01:00:18,628 --> 01:00:23,868
want to send it's cheap and that's telling us that's a signal and it's been cheap for a couple

931
01:00:23,868 --> 01:00:31,548
of years now the plebs want this when these people have a clear incentive to centralize

932
01:00:31,548 --> 01:00:44,123
controller on Bitcoin Bitcoin And then you have an audience captured boomer on YouTube that telling them this is great And I believe watching this Bitcoin greatest threat is not BlackRock It not

933
01:00:44,123 --> 01:00:48,563
Western governments getting their fiscal house in order and finding the hard money standard once

934
01:00:48,563 --> 01:00:54,143
again, reducing the need for Bitcoin. It's the ignorance and lack of faith of Bitcoin's own

935
01:00:54,143 --> 01:01:00,223
users. The people who constantly think they know better than Satoshi. The people who want to save

936
01:01:00,223 --> 01:01:08,183
Bitcoin. You're the problem. Your ego's the problem. You're the problem. And you know,

937
01:01:08,263 --> 01:01:12,843
amazingly, some of these BIP 110 supporters, most of them won't admit that it centralizes control

938
01:01:12,843 --> 01:01:18,643
around Luke and Ocean and all that. But some of them do. They're not that dumb. They realize

939
01:01:18,643 --> 01:01:25,183
what's going on here and they like the idea. I'm not making this up. They realize it would

940
01:01:25,183 --> 01:01:29,183
effectively put Luke in control of Bitcoin. And they think that's just great because after all,

941
01:01:29,183 --> 01:01:32,823
Linux has Linus and that's worked out just great

942
01:01:32,823 --> 01:01:34,763
This is a post

943
01:01:34,763 --> 01:01:36,343
by Robert Allen

944
01:01:36,343 --> 01:01:37,503
hashtag Bip110

945
01:01:37,503 --> 01:01:39,843
at Satoshi Sound on X

946
01:01:39,843 --> 01:01:41,643
Very long post

947
01:01:41,643 --> 01:01:44,483
I think it's funny in here because the person he wants

948
01:01:44,483 --> 01:01:45,883
to put in control of Bitcoin he writes

949
01:01:45,883 --> 01:01:48,303
I've never met Luke in person but I have engaged

950
01:01:48,303 --> 01:01:50,303
with him online. He strikes me as both highly

951
01:01:50,303 --> 01:01:51,803
intelligent and highly autistic

952
01:01:51,803 --> 01:01:53,963
Yeah because they've debated religion

953
01:01:53,963 --> 01:01:56,283
online. Super productive

954
01:01:56,283 --> 01:01:56,883
work there

955
01:01:56,883 --> 01:02:03,563
It's a very long post, but here's his rationale for why Bitcoin needs a benevolent dictator.

956
01:02:05,083 --> 01:02:06,023
He says,

957
01:02:06,183 --> 01:02:08,983
We already have a solo gatekeeper experiment for three decades.

958
01:02:09,083 --> 01:02:09,523
We've seen it.

959
01:02:09,643 --> 01:02:10,423
It's called Linux.

960
01:02:11,083 --> 01:02:15,583
Linus Torvalds has been the benevolent dictator of the most important open source project on

961
01:02:15,583 --> 01:02:16,883
earth since 1991.

962
01:02:17,483 --> 01:02:23,283
The kernel he gatekeeps runs much of the internet, every Android phone, and with some irony,

963
01:02:23,623 --> 01:02:25,803
many of the machines Bitcoin nodes run on.

964
01:02:25,803 --> 01:02:28,923
single gatekeeper review is not an exotic risk.

965
01:02:29,363 --> 01:02:32,363
It's a governance model of the most successful software project in history.

966
01:02:32,863 --> 01:02:38,063
And then don't worry, guys, because Luke says once he does have total control and power,

967
01:02:38,143 --> 01:02:40,823
because even Luke realizes where this going, he's going to give it up.

968
01:02:40,943 --> 01:02:41,543
Just trust him.

969
01:02:42,243 --> 01:02:43,003
This is what he writes.

970
01:02:44,023 --> 01:02:47,903
Third, most important, the king is disciplined by exit.

971
01:02:48,223 --> 01:02:53,483
Here's Luke himself on knots gaining node share, quote, and this is a Luke quote, quote,

972
01:02:53,483 --> 01:02:59,083
and knots can lose it just as fast if we do something truly insane what we need what we

973
01:02:59,083 --> 01:03:03,243
need next as soon as we get through bip 110's activation is a real alternative so users have

974
01:03:03,243 --> 01:03:08,383
options so just once they get through bip 110 luke's gonna really encourage somebody else to

975
01:03:08,383 --> 01:03:15,123
make a competitor to his node project that would reduce his power and influence over the chain he

976
01:03:15,123 --> 01:03:21,823
just successfully got control over just trust him guys and then it's obvious right because he writes

977
01:03:21,823 --> 01:03:26,183
here, the man accused of seeking the throne is publicly asking for more competitors. Well,

978
01:03:26,303 --> 01:03:34,983
just trust him. Robert Allen represents a type of thinking around BIP-110 that seems to wholly

979
01:03:34,983 --> 01:03:43,303
miss the value of Bitcoin. Could you imagine if we went from having no leader and no central boss

980
01:03:43,303 --> 01:03:49,703
to having King Luke and how devastating that would be for Bitcoin? And these people,

981
01:03:49,703 --> 01:03:52,383
these BIP110 supporters

982
01:03:52,383 --> 01:03:54,683
are writing

983
01:03:54,683 --> 01:03:57,003
these long silicoes

984
01:03:57,003 --> 01:03:59,323
on why Luke would be a great Linus

985
01:03:59,323 --> 01:04:00,043
for Bitcoin.

986
01:04:01,623 --> 01:04:04,203
I can't believe I have to say this

987
01:04:04,203 --> 01:04:05,963
but there are differences between

988
01:04:05,963 --> 01:04:06,603
Bitcoin

989
01:04:06,603 --> 01:04:09,503
and Linux.

990
01:04:10,343 --> 01:04:11,603
First of all

991
01:04:11,603 --> 01:04:13,883
Linus

992
01:04:13,883 --> 01:04:16,083
created Linux. Luke

993
01:04:16,083 --> 01:04:18,223
did not create Linux.

994
01:04:19,703 --> 01:04:22,043
Luke is not Satoshi Nakamoto.

995
01:04:23,103 --> 01:04:24,983
Linux is Linus's project.

996
01:04:26,203 --> 01:04:27,343
Always has been.

997
01:04:27,883 --> 01:04:28,963
Linus didn't step away.

998
01:04:30,183 --> 01:04:32,763
Linux is not a monetary asset.

999
01:04:33,143 --> 01:04:34,483
It's a software project.

1000
01:04:35,323 --> 01:04:37,863
Linux has an ecosystem that is valuable around it.

1001
01:04:38,343 --> 01:04:41,783
Linux itself is not an asset worth trillions of dollars.

1002
01:04:41,783 --> 01:04:47,143
The dynamics around the control and the decentralized nature of that

1003
01:04:47,143 --> 01:04:50,123
are a lot different than an open source project

1004
01:04:50,123 --> 01:04:52,443
that's primarily used on servers and mobile devices.

1005
01:04:53,163 --> 01:04:53,363
Okay?

1006
01:04:54,043 --> 01:04:55,283
They're not apples and oranges.

1007
01:04:55,423 --> 01:04:56,763
They are, it's like comparing apples and oranges.

1008
01:04:56,803 --> 01:04:58,083
You're not comparing apples to apples here.

1009
01:04:59,423 --> 01:05:02,623
Linus has a united federation

1010
01:05:02,623 --> 01:05:05,843
of planet-sized developer team beneath him

1011
01:05:05,843 --> 01:05:09,703
that grows every single kernel release

1012
01:05:09,703 --> 01:05:11,603
by the thousands.

1013
01:05:13,323 --> 01:05:14,963
Knotts has Luke.

1014
01:05:17,143 --> 01:05:24,643
luke's the central gatekeeper of knots he is the dictator he's not a benevolent dictator

1015
01:05:24,643 --> 01:05:32,103
he is the dictator there is not a similarity between linux and bitcoin in that regard

1016
01:05:32,103 --> 01:05:36,103
yes they are both open source yes they're going to change the world they both are

1017
01:05:36,103 --> 01:05:43,823
that's about it right there like this kind of thinking is sick it's ego infected thinking

1018
01:05:43,823 --> 01:05:53,283
the BIP 110 supporters are fueled by feels and dreams to save bitcoin and in doing so they assert

1019
01:05:53,283 --> 01:06:00,163
they know more about what is best for your private property your personal property they know better

1020
01:06:00,163 --> 01:06:05,743
that's what they're asserting they know better than you do and you're just you're just a fool

1021
01:06:05,743 --> 01:06:11,563
if you don't agree with them or you're a pedo or all kinds of accusations and all of them have

1022
01:06:11,563 --> 01:06:16,163
forgotten the humble part of the stay humble and stack sets. They've all forgotten the humble part.

1023
01:06:16,663 --> 01:06:22,843
The golden rule of holding Bitcoin is Bitcoin changes you. You do not change Bitcoin. And

1024
01:06:22,843 --> 01:06:26,423
seems like even some long timers are going to have to learn that lesson the hard way.

1025
01:06:27,163 --> 01:06:33,923
All right, let's wrap up with something quick here. Just a couple of quick hats. I want to

1026
01:06:33,923 --> 01:06:39,803
cover the Texas Stock Exchange because something is quietly shifting on Wall Street and Bitcoiners,

1027
01:06:40,243 --> 01:06:41,723
we should keep an eye on these things.

1028
01:06:42,123 --> 01:06:43,423
So I want to bring you up to speed.

1029
01:06:43,703 --> 01:06:45,663
Chino, move over New York City.

1030
01:06:46,023 --> 01:06:48,783
Right now we're taking a live look at downtown Dallas.

1031
01:06:48,783 --> 01:06:52,323
Today, the Texas Stock Exchange launches trading.

1032
01:06:52,663 --> 01:06:55,083
The exchange is the most well-funded challenge

1033
01:06:55,083 --> 01:06:58,783
to the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.

1034
01:06:59,163 --> 01:07:01,263
KB's Allison Martinez joins us from the newsroom

1035
01:07:01,263 --> 01:07:04,443
to explain when you can start trading.

1036
01:07:04,623 --> 01:07:05,543
Fill us in, Allison.

1037
01:07:07,263 --> 01:07:08,643
Yvonne, good morning.

1038
01:07:08,643 --> 01:07:13,963
Governor Abbott says Texas has become the eighth largest economy in the world.

1039
01:07:14,423 --> 01:07:20,143
Today, Dallas is officially throwing its hat in the ring to become a major financial hub.

1040
01:07:20,523 --> 01:07:25,503
The real test begins today as the Texas Stock Exchange commences trading.

1041
01:07:26,083 --> 01:07:28,863
The Texas Stock Exchange is a Dallas-based startup.

1042
01:07:29,383 --> 01:07:34,263
A phased rollout starts today and will continue over the course of July.

1043
01:07:34,743 --> 01:07:36,483
Now, here's why I think this matters to Bitcoiners.

1044
01:07:36,483 --> 01:07:48,943
My gut tells me this is going to be a hotbed of real world assets, blockchain shenanigans and pushing for 24 seven trading of typical assets that are closed on holidays and weekends.

1045
01:07:49,203 --> 01:07:50,983
That's where a lot of this is going to be coming.

1046
01:07:51,343 --> 01:07:56,043
I think that's kind of the reason why the people behind this put this thing together is to push some of this stuff forward.

1047
01:07:56,403 --> 01:08:01,143
And so I suspect there's going to be a lot of noise that comes out of this.

1048
01:08:01,143 --> 01:08:04,723
a lot of stuff that's going to be scammy and, you know,

1049
01:08:04,983 --> 01:08:07,743
that the real world assets are going to be selling a lot of crap.

1050
01:08:08,283 --> 01:08:11,243
So the same skills we use today are going to apply when this happens.

1051
01:08:11,243 --> 01:08:16,543
You're going to have to watch for the signal and the noise and, you know, stack sats, right?

1052
01:08:16,623 --> 01:08:20,083
Just stay humble, keep stacking, and don't get distracted by whatever products

1053
01:08:20,083 --> 01:08:23,283
this Texas exchange is going to come out with because they're going to compete,

1054
01:08:23,563 --> 01:08:26,703
they're going to compete hard, and they're going to try to go for as modern as possible.

1055
01:08:27,763 --> 01:08:30,363
And now we're going to wrap up with a little bullish sentiment.

1056
01:08:30,363 --> 01:08:37,463
As you know, when the price even takes like a 1% dip, I pointed out the media really questions the fundamental use case of Bitcoin.

1057
01:08:37,903 --> 01:08:42,343
If it's been a big pump and dump all along, if it's now going to zero, it's hilarious.

1058
01:08:43,103 --> 01:08:53,903
And this week, $383 million Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, explained to the short-term thinkers over at CNBC what the real deal is.

1059
01:08:54,503 --> 01:08:58,223
Bitcoin's higher today, but it has been a brutal run for the cryptocurrency.

1060
01:08:58,563 --> 01:09:00,863
It's around 50% now off its all-time highs.

1061
01:09:01,303 --> 01:09:02,843
For more on where it might head from here,

1062
01:09:03,183 --> 01:09:04,563
we're joined now by Bill Miller IV.

1063
01:09:04,723 --> 01:09:06,483
He's Miller Value Partner, CIO, and Chairman.

1064
01:09:06,603 --> 01:09:07,083
Welcome back.

1065
01:09:08,083 --> 01:09:08,863
Thanks for having me, Scott.

1066
01:09:09,763 --> 01:09:11,943
Why is Bitcoin performing so poorly?

1067
01:09:13,323 --> 01:09:16,883
I think the main reason right now is the fact that Clary Act

1068
01:09:16,918 --> 01:09:21,598
Like it could be stalling on ethics concerns, but you look at it over a much longer time

1069
01:09:21,598 --> 01:09:24,898
horizon, the fundamental case for Bitcoin has never been stronger.

1070
01:09:25,398 --> 01:09:29,758
So the CBO this year is projecting $1.9 trillion in a deficit.

1071
01:09:30,218 --> 01:09:31,758
So let's look at that from a different angle.

1072
01:09:32,078 --> 01:09:38,018
The marginal obligations being created that are unfunded by our country is 50% bigger

1073
01:09:38,018 --> 01:09:39,718
than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.

1074
01:09:40,198 --> 01:09:44,438
So you have to think, is this the best way of accounting for capital when we can just

1075
01:09:44,438 --> 01:09:49,118
come up with new obligations year in and year out. The debt cycle gets worse and worse. I think

1076
01:09:49,118 --> 01:09:54,778
there are better ways to account for capital that are based on consensus, energy, and transparency.

1077
01:09:55,118 --> 01:09:58,678
So we're still very optimistic about the technology over the long term.

1078
01:09:59,258 --> 01:10:03,778
I know, but I didn't hear you say anything about the use case of it. I mean, what if there was

1079
01:10:03,778 --> 01:10:11,338
never really a credible fundamental story to begin with? Well, then it might not exist, right? So

1080
01:10:11,338 --> 01:10:16,798
Bitcoin came into existence in the heels of the 2008, 2009 financial crisis when everyone saw

1081
01:10:16,798 --> 01:10:21,878
all of the money printing coming down the pike. And that's what happened. So the fundamental use

1082
01:10:21,878 --> 01:10:26,878
case is stronger. And you have to look at the underlying sets of dynamics out there around you

1083
01:10:26,878 --> 01:10:30,838
when you make market calls. And so the fundamentals are still incredibly strong.

1084
01:10:30,838 --> 01:10:38,038
What if the biggest problem here is it's simple and that there's just a lot of money going into

1085
01:10:38,038 --> 01:10:44,138
other more durable, fast-growing areas of the market around the AI trade.

1086
01:10:44,498 --> 01:10:46,638
And Bitcoin just can't compete with that.

1087
01:10:47,818 --> 01:10:52,278
Well, I think AI very, very long-term is incredibly deflationary.

1088
01:10:52,898 --> 01:10:57,218
And to make up for that, you're going to have to come up with a whole bunch more dollars

1089
01:10:57,218 --> 01:10:59,498
to fill in for all the debts that are out there.

1090
01:10:59,598 --> 01:11:01,678
So one of the ways out of the debt spiral is inflation.

1091
01:11:02,258 --> 01:11:07,857
And Bitcoin is a hedge against that over the long So I think overall that a very good thing over the long term for Bitcoin

1092
01:11:18,477 --> 01:11:25,277
All right, let's check in on the state of the network. Wrapping up at block height 957,221.

1093
01:11:25,877 --> 01:11:32,597
The current U.S. price to one Bitcoin, 62,130 U.S. greenbacks. That puts our sats per dollar at

1094
01:11:32,597 --> 01:11:36,377
1,610 satoshis for one US dollar.

1095
01:11:36,977 --> 01:11:41,977
We are down 50.8% from our all-time high of $126,180

1096
01:11:41,977 --> 01:11:45,777
275 days ago, October 6th, 2025.

1097
01:11:46,657 --> 01:11:49,917
Our retarget date for the difficulty is July 11th

1098
01:11:49,917 --> 01:11:52,617
with a current downward adjustment of 3.3%

1099
01:11:52,617 --> 01:11:54,877
and the reachable Bitcoin nodes on the network

1100
01:11:54,877 --> 01:11:57,337
suspiciously continues to grow week by week.

1101
01:11:58,017 --> 01:11:59,837
A little, I don't know, it's numbers odd.

1102
01:11:59,837 --> 01:12:02,077
It's fluctuating in a way that I find suspicious.

1103
01:12:02,597 --> 01:12:06,677
27,069 nodes on the network at the moment.

1104
01:12:07,357 --> 01:12:09,957
Our 24-hour price change is down 2.5%.

1105
01:12:09,957 --> 01:12:12,797
Our seven-day, though, still up 3.8%.

1106
01:12:12,797 --> 01:12:16,917
3.8 since our last show.

1107
01:12:17,717 --> 01:12:20,577
Immediate transaction fee, one set per V-byte.

1108
01:12:21,157 --> 01:12:21,497
It's cheap.

1109
01:12:22,137 --> 01:12:25,097
Rebalance, move stuff around, consolidate.

1110
01:12:25,877 --> 01:12:26,697
State of the network's great.

1111
01:12:27,197 --> 01:12:28,017
It's a great time to do it.

1112
01:12:28,457 --> 01:12:29,077
And look at that.

1113
01:12:29,537 --> 01:12:30,237
9.57.

1114
01:12:30,497 --> 01:12:32,097
That's a great block height to wrap up on.

1115
01:12:32,597 --> 01:12:49,097
Well, if you made it this far, you probably ought to check out the links in the show notes at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1116
01:12:49,097 --> 01:12:55,237
My goal here is to give you a show that doesn't get distracted by the politics or the emotions or the games, any of that,

1117
01:12:55,557 --> 01:13:07,577
but focuses on the signal so you can plan for yourself your friends your family your future whatever it might be So you can always let me know how I did with a boost boost I also want to hear your take on the four cycle

1118
01:13:07,737 --> 01:13:08,357
Yes, still.

1119
01:13:08,497 --> 01:13:09,977
It's still a topic, and I want to hear it.

1120
01:13:10,037 --> 01:13:12,097
I want to hear your updated four-year cycle take.

1121
01:13:12,557 --> 01:13:13,337
So boost that in.

1122
01:13:13,377 --> 01:13:15,397
Also, any thoughts you have on Sailor as well.

1123
01:13:15,737 --> 01:13:20,057
I am going to leave you with a value-for-value track, but I want to give you right now a language warning.

1124
01:13:20,497 --> 01:13:22,077
There is some swearing in this track.

1125
01:13:22,077 --> 01:13:24,397
so if you have young ones that are sensitive to that

1126
01:13:24,397 --> 01:13:26,437
you can turn it off here in just a moment

1127
01:13:26,437 --> 01:13:27,617
but there's your warning for that

1128
01:13:27,617 --> 01:13:30,017
it just to me felt like this track was too perfect

1129
01:13:30,017 --> 01:13:33,357
it's right on theme after our BIP 110 update

1130
01:13:33,357 --> 01:13:34,857
so I had to play it

1131
01:13:34,857 --> 01:13:36,497
alright I'll see you next week

1132
01:13:36,497 --> 01:13:37,677
for your value for value track

1133
01:13:37,677 --> 01:13:40,617
it is Off The Chain by Neon Rooks

1134
01:13:40,617 --> 01:13:42,017
I didn't want to have to do this but

1135
01:13:42,017 --> 01:13:44,097
don't fuck with my money

1136
01:13:44,097 --> 01:13:50,077
You want it off the chain

1137
01:13:50,077 --> 01:13:52,497
It's off the chain

1138
01:13:52,497 --> 01:13:55,217
You want it off the chain

1139
01:13:55,217 --> 01:13:57,837
It's off the chain

1140
01:13:57,837 --> 01:13:59,877
Bitcoin is money

1141
01:13:59,877 --> 01:14:03,117
We want the same thing

1142
01:14:03,117 --> 01:14:05,657
Zero tolerance for shit

1143
01:14:05,657 --> 01:14:07,417
Corners can't believe I gotta say it

1144
01:14:07,417 --> 01:14:08,937
After how many years

1145
01:14:08,937 --> 01:14:10,377
This is how you wanna play it

1146
01:14:10,377 --> 01:14:11,697
Fuck around with consensus

1147
01:14:11,697 --> 01:14:12,937
Get yourself burnt

1148
01:14:12,937 --> 01:14:15,517
Telling Twitter lies just to get the plebs heard

1149
01:14:15,517 --> 01:14:18,137
Talking about renting hash just to up your net worth

1150
01:14:18,137 --> 01:14:18,797
What you mean?

1151
01:14:18,897 --> 01:14:20,817
Bitcoin is dead if this doesn't work

1152
01:14:20,817 --> 01:14:22,637
All the young sats and stackers

1153
01:14:22,637 --> 01:14:23,697
Keep your head up

1154
01:14:23,697 --> 01:14:25,357
Misinformation is the devil

1155
01:14:25,357 --> 01:14:26,397
Don't get fed up

1156
01:14:26,397 --> 01:14:28,277
We'll teach you how to verify

1157
01:14:28,277 --> 01:14:29,597
Expose the lie

1158
01:14:29,597 --> 01:14:31,697
Go all in, do or die

1159
01:14:31,697 --> 01:14:32,637
Gotta survive

1160
01:14:32,637 --> 01:14:34,637
Clear skies on the other side

1161
01:14:34,637 --> 01:14:37,257
You want it off the chain

1162
01:14:37,257 --> 01:14:39,937
This is off the chain

1163
01:14:39,937 --> 01:14:42,537
You want it off the chain

1164
01:14:42,537 --> 01:14:45,297
This is off the chain

1165
01:14:45,297 --> 01:14:47,137
Bitcoin is money

1166
01:14:47,137 --> 01:15:00,296
We say the same thing Repeat after me Cypherpunks write code But I seen what you been writing and it ain going in my nose You can call it hating with your dangerous activation

1167
01:15:00,656 --> 01:15:02,916
Wrist splitting the chain, making it explode.

1168
01:15:03,196 --> 01:15:05,476
Props to Luke for taking spam debate off kilter.

1169
01:15:05,656 --> 01:15:08,136
I got a thousand ways to hustle, data, pass a filter.

1170
01:15:08,396 --> 01:15:10,696
Don't get it twisted thinking that we're about the kids.

1171
01:15:10,756 --> 01:15:13,496
But since you throw stones from glass houses, we know what it is.

1172
01:15:13,496 --> 01:15:16,876
No need for a rejection client when yours flopped on its own.

1173
01:15:17,976 --> 01:15:21,796
It's time to show some remorse for the sour seeds you have saw

1174
01:15:21,796 --> 01:15:24,516
You want it off the chain

1175
01:15:24,516 --> 01:15:27,376
It's off the chain

1176
01:15:27,376 --> 01:15:29,796
You want it off the chain

1177
01:15:29,796 --> 01:15:32,616
It's off the chain

1178
01:15:32,616 --> 01:15:34,416
Bitcoin is money

1179
01:15:34,416 --> 01:15:37,676
We want the same thing

1180
01:15:37,676 --> 01:15:40,256
Reduce data?

1181
01:15:40,636 --> 01:15:42,216
I don't think so

1182
01:15:42,216 --> 01:15:45,196
Everybody know how the blockchain grows

1183
01:15:45,196 --> 01:15:47,136
This supposed to be temporary

1184
01:15:47,136 --> 01:15:50,176
The next step gonna be even more scary

1185
01:15:50,176 --> 01:15:52,636
Threatened miners with lawyers all you want

1186
01:15:52,636 --> 01:15:55,396
You think you run shit and they know you don't

1187
01:15:55,396 --> 01:15:57,996
You don't get to choose who, what and when

1188
01:15:57,996 --> 01:16:00,656
Fees ain't even high like back then

1189
01:16:00,656 --> 01:16:03,716
One last thing for you protocol attackers

1190
01:16:03,716 --> 01:16:06,156
From Craig Wright to St. Luke

1191
01:16:06,156 --> 01:16:09,096
On behalf of all sad stackers

1192
01:16:09,096 --> 01:16:10,116
Motherfuck you

1193
01:16:10,116 --> 01:16:12,196
You want it off the chain

1194
01:16:12,196 --> 01:16:14,556
Off the chain

1195
01:16:14,556 --> 01:16:17,076
You want it off the chain

1196
01:16:17,076 --> 01:16:19,996
Off the chain

1197
01:16:19,996 --> 01:16:21,836
Bitcoin is money

1198
01:16:21,836 --> 01:16:24,976
You don't want the same thing

1199
01:16:24,976 --> 01:16:27,676
You want it off the chain

1200
01:16:27,676 --> 01:16:30,216
You don't want the same thing