Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 112.
My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.
Bitcoin survived the strategy test this week.
You know, the skeptics said that Bitcoin would collapse if sailors stopped buying,
to say nothing if he were to actually sell a serious amount.
Well, I don't know if you were on social media,
but some of us woke up to the news that a serious amount had indeed been sold.
On Monday, we found out that Strategy sold 3,588 Bitcoin last week, around $216 million in U.S. greenbacks at the time.
But the market mostly shrugged it off.
Not only did the Bitcoin price go up while the sale was presumably happening last week, but after the initial news, the price went up again.
Saylor made the news public.
There was an initial reaction and the news pumped.
And I've noted that before in a bad market, often good news like this just gets completely ignored.
So I thought that was actually pretty notable.
So what's going on?
We're going to break kind of down what was going on there, where the positive bid was coming from.
But before we get too far, I kind of do want to explain what's going on with strategy and
sailor because it has become a drag on the Bitcoin market.
I've kind of glanced around the issue.
I've orbited around the issue, but I haven't really explained what's going on.
And I've noted before on the show that when stuff is going bad for Bitcoin, you know,
price wise or narrative wise, and then often things are also at the same time going bad
for strategy and the stock price and all of that.
The interviews go from loving and he's such a genius, what a brilliant guy, to really pretty
tough.
And after weeks of Saylor being the main character of Bitcoin, he sat down for, I guess what
people are calling a firecracker of an interview with Channel 4.
They don't trust a company.
But you're a company.
You're a company.
You represent a company.
Are you going to keep interrupting me or are you going to listen to the answer?
Michael Saylor is arguably the closest the community has to a celebrity.
His real claim to fame came during COVID when he went all in on Bitcoin.
The idea of economic immortality or economic sovereignty so that your family is economically secure, that's a very compelling idea.
Immortality is very compelling for everybody.
Spiritual immortality is the basis of religion.
Economic immortality is the basis of Bitcoin.
What happened last year? What happened with the price last year?
It goes up and it goes down, but it's irrelevant because the point is it's going up double to triple the rate of the S&P over the long term because it's economically superior.
People shouldn't panic if it loses 50% of its value. Is that the crypto winter?
No, the right way to think of it is people shouldn't invest in a volatile capital asset.
If you want to make a capital investment in anything, if you need the money in the next
four months, you're a credit investor.
But all the risk, all the risk, all the risk, all the risk.
If you're going to ask me the question, you got to listen to the answer.
The point really is Bitcoin is the world's most secure digital property network.
it's 21 million blocks it's a cyber manhattan so all of the people in the world that would like to
put their money in a bank in cyberspace they don't trust the government they don't trust the company
but you're a company you're a company you represent are you going to keep interrupting
me or are you going to listen to the answer even though 10 million companies will come and go and
10 billion people will come and go in 500 years and the bitcoin still holds its economic value
well and unless quantum destroys that i did the entire quantum thesis is maybe someone will invent
a better computer so before okay before we get to before we get to if you're going to ask me these
questions you cannot interrupt me before we get right because it's like i'm not going to do this
with you like it like you're being offensive right now to do this like uh it's literally a fantasy
you fantasize like the tooth fairy might actually come out of the clouds in 37 years with magical
wands and wave them at you i hope she's coming up to my teeth and destroy your house
it's like okay yeah well maybe the tooth fairy will come and i do love his analogies he has
the best analogies in bitcoin you know because he he has it he starts with the tooth fairy
everybody loves a tooth fairy and then he pivots you know he just takes a slight pivot in a
direction you don't see coming and destroy your house it's like okay yeah well maybe the tooth
fairy will come and dematerialize my house but i'm still going to have the house because i don't
really think it's that likely is it the proletariat that benefits from bitcoin's expanse or is it
people who have very big shares people like you did i not just point out that i have 55 million
beneficiaries. It's a technology. And right now it's touching 500 million people,
but there's no reason why it shouldn't touch 5 billion people. Okay, we're done.
That was kind of a super clip because otherwise it'd just be like five minutes,
but that I thought was very interesting. Now here's what's actually going on and why they
had to sell and why I think you should probably brace yourself for the news that they're going
to sell more Bitcoin. Lynn Alden's back. She breaks it down. And it's really about reserve
management. It's not a thesis change. It's not about conviction change. Strategy hasn't changed
their bullish outlook long term on Bitcoin. But they have to keep a buffer for this perpetual that
they have, for this dividend that they're paying out. The issue is that we as a community, as
Bitcoiners is we have not made the transition that strategy made a little while ago and didn't
really make a big public announcement about a pivot. Lynn kind of explains it all. I'm doing
a horrible job. Lynn, thank you so much for joining us. Katie and I have been excited the whole show
to chat with you. So we do know that Saylor really has this reputation of never ever sell. So when
strategy sells Bitcoin, how should investors interpret that? Is this business as usual or
is this a signal of something bigger? So thanks for having me. I interpret it as getting back to
their prior guidance on their USD reserve. So if you recall, a couple quarters ago,
they had a view that they were going to have two to three years of dollar reserves,
which would give them kind of a volatility buffer to keep paying dividends on their securities
without having to sell Bitcoin. And for a couple of different reasons, they ended up dipping down
about six months.
And that was at a time when, you know,
there was leverage built on top of, you know,
their most popular, you know, security
other than their common stock, which is STRC.
It had that large, like, DPEG moment
going way below their target price.
And since then, the company's come out
with a board-level decision to have
at least 12 months of reserves,
unless the board allows otherwise.
So they're trying to both look appealing
to the S&P 500 for inclusion
and calm the fears of investors that they have enough reserves to keep paying out on what is now a promised 12 percent dividend.
Currently, they're back up to 17 months.
And recently they announced that they were selling Bitcoin to pay some of their most recent dividends,
which at least I interpret as not wanting to have their reserve, their U.S. dollar reserve dip again.
So I think they're kind of rebuilding back to, you know, we're going to see what the number actually is.
But I think they're basically getting back to something more resembling their prior guidance from six months ago.
And that includes being willing, clearly, to sell some Bitcoin when needed.
The product is the dividend.
The dividend is backed by the cash reserve to give the market some calm.
The product is no longer they're a Bitcoin treasury company that stacks unlimited Bitcoin.
now they a company that stacks bitcoin when they can and will sell that bitcoin to maintain the primary product which is that dividend product that that preferred and you know if they have to sell Bitcoin to do it they will It a small percentage of their stack Right
And then I want to talk about sort of the symbolic importance of strategy because I have a lot
of folks from TradFi and when it comes to crypto, all they want to talk about is what's
going to happen to MicroStrategy.
So, you know, this is why I say he's been the main character, because while as Bitcoiners,
it's sort of noise to us. People that are big money sitting outside the market wanting to get
in, they're trying to decide if they should wait for strategy to get wrecked first, because in
their estimation, if strategy gets wrecked, the price collapses and then they get to lap up a
scarce asset at just unbelievable fire sale prices. There's literally no reason for them not to wait
because they're making money on the AI trade right now anyways. Now that's starting to play
out for them a little bit. So they're starting to ask questions. These are real questions these
people are asking. I know it seems obnoxious. At least it seems obnoxious to me, but they want to
know if strategy is going to get wrecked. And so that's one of the things they're doing is signaling
to the market here. When it comes to crypto, all they want to talk about is what's going to happen
to micro strategy. So, you know, you just went into the details about, you know, what some of
their financing looks like at this moment. But when it comes to a sentiment perspective, when it
comes to a signal perspective, I mean, how do you think about strategy in the broader ecosystem?
Yeah, it's a good question. I mean, the strategy owns something like 4% of Bitcoin. So it's large, you know, it's large in and of itself. You know, I wouldn't call it systemic, but it's large. You know, the chairman obviously is, you know, extremely well known in the space. And, you know, he's well known outside of the space to a significant degree. So the combination of the social reach with the scale involved, you know, it's a very large.
Let's talk about that social reach because that's, I mean, that's a really nice way to put it.
Saylor backed himself into this corner.
He created this perception that you're seeing by the whales and he created this backlash that you're seeing with the plebs.
The reality is, sure, they could change their quote unquote strategy and the real product can become the preferred stock that they continuously promise a reserve for.
And they can continue to buy Bitcoin when they can.
That can be the product.
That's fine.
there's a there's a you know it's a free market do whatever you want but that's not what was
promised to bitcoiners and i refuse to do it because a troll on twitter said hey hey you said
never sell your bitcoin okay fine i'll destroy a billion a hundred billion dollar company so that
i don't sell my bitcoin you know well the point is i said to by the way i said to you never sell
your bitcoin i never said that the company wouldn't sell his bitcoin so uh we're not going to be
selling uh we're gonna be buying bitcoin we're not gonna be selling i just bought 1.1 billion
of it and i intend to hold it forever forever we're not gonna sell our bitcoin you do not sell
your bitcoin and anybody that's been listening to our earnings calls or reading our disclosures
or has half a brain knows for the last five years we've been very clear that of course we sell the
Bitcoin if we have to.
Yeah, okay. So I think, you know,
you can get hung up, did he lie or not?
Truth of the matter, he's the first
guy doing something like this. So he's
going to change. Things are going to change.
And the incentives for them
changed. Once you issue
preferreds that forever
start offering, you know, a dividend,
eventually there's going to be payment dates on
that. And it's a real pressure point.
So strategy went from never sell
to strategic selling to defend that
preferred. That's where we're at now.
And they've tried to bump up that preferred dividend to 12% to make it enticing to those of you out there that maybe want to buy that instead of sats.
And that's really the tell that it's under pressure too, by the way.
And the reality is, unless that thing gets back up to its peg, their Bitcoin buying machine is off.
The way their system works is once they go over the peg, they start buying Bitcoin.
And when they're under the peg, they're probably going to be selling Bitcoin for a while.
So a major buyer of Bitcoin is going to have to probably sit things out for a while.
remain under pressure. I do think the recent active actions buy them enough time. Clearly,
strategy investors and their preferred investors liked it. We've seen the stretch preferred
initially traded down to about $70 from $100 par, and it's rallied back then. And so the market is
supportive of these actions. It's easing fears of any sort of more cascading liquidations. And so
we view that as a positive, adding a bit of surety to the market, but it could also impact
strategy's ability to acquire more Bitcoin in the second half of the year. If they're
trying to really balance their cash reserves, they're now trading at a lower MNAV multiple.
And again, so it may restrict their ability to issue shares and acquire more Bitcoin in the back
half. Yeah. And just to clarify, I mean, obviously, to confirm what you just said, I mean,
STRC, they need to defend that, what, $90 peg on that particular product. So it makes sense. I mean,
Michael Saylor has talked to us about that before, the need to perhaps sell to, you know, as a means
to keep that level. That's the new mission, to keep that peg and sell if they must. Because they're
no longer just a buy and hold treasury company. They're a financial engineering company that has
a financially engineered product they're selling. It's not a side quest. It is the product now,
And I don't think our Bitcoin community has wrapped their head around it.
They're just completely confused by the entire thing.
So let me play one more Lynn clip as we kind of wrap this up.
I think we're kind of where we need to be with this.
But I think she's focused on the right thing through all of this.
It's all about the reserves.
They were getting low.
She flagged it.
It's uncomfortable.
And I think her perspective is the right one.
And I wasn't on that one.
But when they were gathering questions, I did post and say, you know, the reserve was 24
to 36 months.
That was the prior guidance.
And at the time, it was 18 months.
So it had fallen somewhat below the prior guidance.
My view was, is there updated guidance for what the reserve is going to be going forward?
And then, in the recent weeks, they got as low as six months of reserves.
So I say that it's always easy to be an armchair analyst on these things.
but from an investor perspective
you generally do want to see
a company
give a guidance and then kind of generally stick
to what they guided that they're
going to do. Generally from an investor
perspective you don't want to see surprises.
I mean it's nice to see upside surprises but
you generally don't want to see
downside surprises.
And so yeah they got very
low on reserves. Obviously this we had
a Bitcoin bear market and people
did apparently build a lot of leverage
on top of STRC.
So they ran into a pretty big volatility event. I think the actions since then have been quite reasonable. So they've recommitted to building their reserve. They put kind of board level lines in the sand for how low that reserve can get without board approval. I think it's 12 months. And they're currently back up to 17 months of actual reserves. But that kind of board level, I think, is 12 months off the top of my head.
they've put in facilities that allow for the repurchase.
Okay. So I think we've got, this is what's going on.
The strategy situation seems to be somewhat, I would say, stabilizing
and somewhat has killed the myth that Bitcoin is going to collapse without its ongoing buyer.
Now we'll see how that plays out over time.
But let's talk about why we actually went up after it was announced that Saylor had sold.
So what did change? Well, obviously it wasn't Bitcoin. The macro headwinds stopped being a
headwind for a moment. There was a weaker jobs print here in the United States. And we're in
that twisted state of the economy where bad news for the average folks is good news for assets and
the stock market. Because the calculus is that with jobs being weaker, that gives the Fed room
to cut rates. And if they cut rates, assets will pump. So it's the second order effects
that they're immediately trading on. But that combined with at least the seemingly temporarily
resolved situation with Iran and energy prices sort of resolved some of the macro headwinds that
Bitcoin was facing And it naturally started going back up The buyers outweighed the sellers even with sailor selling over 3000 Bitcoin I think that a really interesting note It without these pressures Bitcoin just started
ticking back up. But of course, these relief trades, especially when we're kind of in a bear
market to begin with, they're just so easy to disrupt. And well, disrupted, they have been.
The U.S. Treasury Department is revoking the general license that allowed for the sale
of Iranian oil. Now, essentially, they're allowing for a 10-day wind-down period,
but will be blocking any new transactions or any new sales of Iranian oil. And this comes just
after three tankers were hit in the Strait of Hormuz earlier today, Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
which had tankers hit, pointing the finger at Iran for those attacks. As for why the Trump
administration now is taking this step, a U.S. official tells me this. They say,
as President Trump and the administration have repeatedly affirmed the MOU in effect with Iran
is entirely performance-based.
Iran will only reap benefits
if they exhibit good behavior.
Oh, the MOU.
You know, it's funny they use the term performance-based
because the MOU felt performative.
Iran is entirely performance-based.
Iran will only reap benefits
if they exhibit good behavior.
Iran's actions in the strait
were wholly unacceptable to the United States
and will be met with consequences.
Our negotiators continue to work in good faith.
All right, so met with consequences they have,
and Bitcoin does not like this cocktail.
We got a firm dollar.
I talked about that last week,
and now we have energy prices going up.
Not good.
The relief trade needed macro to just,
just be quiet for a little while,
just behave for a little while.
And we got the exact opposite of that.
The U.S. has indeed responded with counter strikes.
We just got some news from U.S. Central Command on Iran.
Forces have begun launching U.S. forces,
a series of what CENTCOM is describing as powerful strikes against Iran to impose, quote,
heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an
international waterway. CENTCOM goes on to say in this post on X, the U.S. strikes are in response
to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire.
That doesn't sound good for passage of the straight. And of course, if crude oil catches a bid, inflation expectations will turn back around just like they did when we got a weak job sprint. That's just they turn on a dime like that. And that matters for Bitcoin liquidity. And it's not really about Iran. It's it's about oil. It's about the dollar. And it's about what is the Fed going to do with rate cuts?
even though bitcoin is a global asset these things because the u.s market is so large absolutely
matters and i don't think there's anything in this lineup that's coming to save bitcoin
and the truth is that's always how it has been investors are going to watch these things and
especially certain companies have to have to watch the passage of this legislation
um i don't think there's anything coming to save bitcoin i think bitcoin has to kind of
either its merits are going to be seen by the market and it's going to be bought you know by
players in the market. And they're going to take advantage of cheap sats and a lot of the fast
money washed out and a lot of the parts of the ecosystem deleveraged. And then it'll climb its
way up. And then once it starts climbing its way up, that, of course, gets outside money interested
again. That's what makes it become fast money. If something's bottomed and rolling up, you get,
again, the technical chartists that come in and say, that's actually a pretty good chart.
you get the momentum traders uh you get the the fomo traders um uh and you get and you get all the
marketing around you know bitcoin one day reclaiming 100k and then reclaiming all-time highs
and it just kind of feeds on itself um uh and until then i think the asset just has to survive
on its own merits oh we just are gonna chop it out but you know it's really it's fascinating
because you have you have different perspectives out there and let's go to van eck for a second
because it's the institutional version of the perspective.
And I think that's likely the next big buyer.
While Saylor sits it out,
I think the institutions will step in
and quietly snap up some Satoshis
that he would otherwise have been buying
and driving the price up.
And they're not trying to buy every dip.
And we're going to listen to Vanek's chief analyst here,
and he's going to kind of lay out the strategy.
This is what he's advising his clients.
They're looking at the overall market
and there's certain moments they're buying,
but not the entire process.
They're waiting for what they call
a seller exhaustion use case.
And they think it's starting to show up.
And he thinks this is good news for his clients
and they've begun advising they buy some of these dips.
I'm going to play this for you
because I want you to put yourself
in the mindset of somebody
who's advising multiple clients
with millions and millions of dollars.
You're responsible for multiple billions of dollars,
tens of billions of dollars, and you've got to make a directional bet for these people.
That's this guy's job.
What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October.
You know, we respect the four-year cycle, and it's been one element in kind of not buying
every dip in Bitcoin this year.
And not to say we didn't buy some of these dips.
The first time that Bitcoin hit 60K, we noticed some really one-sided positioning in the derivatives market.
And then we got the bounce into the low 80s, ran right into the moving averages.
And on this retest, there hasn't quite been the same type of capitulation signals in terms of liquidations or the premiums that people are paying for puts versus calls.
And I think that the market noticed that.
And while there was definitely a lot of bearishness, we didn't see that same type of capitulation.
That said, puts are still really expensive versus calls by historical standards.
We're seeing that like in the 80th percentile.
So not quite the 99th like we saw the first time BTC hit 60K, but puts are expensive.
Realized losses are in the 90th percentile historically.
So people are dumping losses.
So, you know, there is maybe some hint of seller's exhaustion that may emerge here.
And then we've also seen the older cohorts, kind of two year plus holders, have slowed down their selling.
So that's another maybe hint of seller's exhaustion.
And I think that's what's kind of leading to this Bitcoin bounce here in the latter half of the week.
but I'm still kind of waiting and watching to get more aggressive.
It really depends on your kind of individual positioning and risk reward.
What I've been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October.
So putting in some type of time-based buying where you add a few basis points every month or so
until we get into Q4.
That seems like a reasonable strategy.
You know, I can't say I know exactly what's going to happen.
But the fact that the four-year pattern matched up so well,
like you got to respect it a little bit.
There you go.
Your top advice is DCA.
That appears to be the advice from the top is,
while we wait for this to work itself out, just DCA.
So here's my question.
Are you still a anti-four-year cycle or pro-year cycle person?
Where are you on the four-year cycle right now?
In a way, I kind of hope the four-year cycle is true, right?
Because it at least gives us a light at the end of the tunnel.
But when everybody starts landing on an October consensus, I start to get nervous.
The reality is, is that so far, the four-year cycle has kind of perfectly played out.
But it's also perfectly lined up with macro events.
We had the stablecoin DPEG last October, liquidated retail, flushed liquidity out of the crypto market.
Then there was right along that same timeline.
We had the AI capital vacuum We now have the Iran war and a hawkish Fed which was unexpected And we once again concerned about energy price spikes
And these have all been issues that kind of lined up right with things that line up with the four-year cycle.
So what's going on here?
Is it the four-year cycle?
Is it macro events lining up in a four-year cycle?
What say you?
Boost in and tell me.
I'd love to know.
Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com.
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They don't mess around with the other coins.
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That's the Fold card.
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They'll give you access to your liquidity without having to sell your Bitcoin with some liquidation protections there, too.
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Four score and seven boosts to go.
We have some boosts to support the show.
It's a summer episode, so I really wasn't sure if we were going to get much support
because sometimes these can be a little tighter.
People go on vacation and whatnot.
Forget about their This Week in Bitcoin podcast.
But that is not the case. In fact, J-Cube comes in with a baller booster, 75,000 sats.
Remind me, Clarity isn't really doing much for Bitcoiners, right?
I had more to say, but it all sounded political. I wish I could never live without fear of government overreach and control.
Clarity doesn't do much for Bitcoin. The people out there, the analysts, the whatnot, say that the certainty that it would bring to the market would bring the money in that is kind of waiting on the sidelines for the rules of the road.
And so Bitcoin would benefit from that.
I think it's a stretch, man.
I always have.
I've never really cared about clarity.
Now they're saying they have a target date of August.
Whatever.
I was told it was going to be the 4th of July.
I don't know, man.
We've got the Genius Act.
It's all just very tiring.
And it's all just because they want to just do a bunch of S-coinery, I think.
That's what I think.
So J-Cube, I don't know how much it really has going for Bitcoin.
Do I believe it could maybe bring a little additional money into the market?
I do believe that is possibly true.
I guess there's that.
Thank you for the boost.
Derivation Dingus is here with 45,334 Satoshis.
I hoard that which your kind covet.
I've been, oh, he says, I couldn't agree more about the FOMC and the direction of the dollar.
The way I see it, Lynn Alden's Nothing Stops the Strain article on fiscal dominance from two to three years ago is still perfectly explaining everything going on.
Raising rates helps when banks are lending too much.
But when the problem is government spending, it just makes little sense.
Raising rates into inflation caused by fuel shortages makes zero sense.
Also, I've been thinking about moving my IRAs.
So when you recently reported on the Swan-related bad news, I decided to move to Unchained Capital.
I got lucky and caught a 50% discount they were running, and I couldn't be happier.
I love the collaborative custody model.
I got lucky with Bitcoin price, and Swan doesn't support in-kind transfers.
So I sold around $64K, and then the price dipped more, and I had to buy back at $58K.
you know and I not to really you know put shade on Swan I I think the folks over there probably
have all the best of intentions I think they've been dealt some bad cards they were early they
had they had to partner with some bad folks they kind of got screwed maybe a bit by tether it seems
it's just been rough for them right and so I think that's you know Unchained seems like they've been
pretty pretty rock solid during all that thanks for that update good to hear it derivation appreciate
that. Satsquatch is here with 25,353 Satoshis. He got sick, so he's late boosting. Man, I'm torn
on the BIP-110 stuff. Jeff Booth is running knots, and then I switched back to feel creepy running
core, so I'll probably switch again. I love SNART9, but also my node and some others. Yeah, we'll have
a BIP-10-1 update, BIP-110 update. It is fascinating to kind of see everybody just
putting all of their cards on the table now. There's been a lot of narratives and a lot of
reasons given and a lot of things that were claimed are not true that are turning out to be true.
So we're going to talk about that later in the show. Thanks, That Squatch. I appreciate it. And
I know it's a really, it's a rough place. It's worse than I think probably most people realize.
and I'll talk more about it later.
OB comes in with 21,000 sets.
Just a hunch BIP 110 will be a nothing burger.
Yes, although what I'm going to get to is I do think it exposes something
that's kind of systemic and then additionally,
will they actually just leave us alone?
We'll see.
Coming up.
Code 27 comes in with a row of ducks.
That's 2,222 Satoshis.
No message, just value.
I appreciate that.
Lee Lee Lee Lee Lee is here with 5,000 sats.
Coming in hot with the booze.
No message, just value.
Thank you very much.
And Kiwi Bitcoin Guide is here with 4,567 satoshers.
Thanks for sharing your agent and node methodology.
I kind of knew the answer wouldn't be something like put a few wrappers in place and let them loose.
But I didn't think it would actually be Nix, even though I know you talk about it all the time on Linux Unplugged.
I guess it's another rabbit hole to discover.
Here we go again.
It does help.
It helps a tremendous amount.
and the reality is
I don't think Nix Bitcoin
and Nix is for everyone.
I wish I could make,
I wish I had a better recommendation,
but I do think if you are
seriously managing funds,
if you are trying to deliver
a certain level of service guarantee
so your end user experience is good,
right, like if every time
you guys boosted it failed,
that would suck,
you'd stop boosting,
then I do think it's worth
considering Nix
if you're putting it in production
and you're serious about it
or if you're even comfortable
learning Nix
and
The truth be told is, with LLMs, it's pretty easy to figure out Nix stuff.
You can just take the error message from Nix and paste it into an LLM,
and it'll tell you what you did wrong.
You know, or you could even just run like OpenCode.
So give it a shot, Kiwi. Let me know.
Your inner child is here with 2,111 sats.
Episode 111 makes the runtime of 111 minutes.
What do you think of the idea of 2,000 plus the previous episode to get shout-outed?
I'm boosting 211 just in case
oh I like this
so it's the episode number plus 2000
hmm you know
it's a spicy meatball
that's a spicy meatball
I don't know if I remember it so you're going to have to remind me
you'll have to boost in with
two 112 sats and remind me I think
you think I'm kidding but I think I will forget
but thank you I like that
hey Kaspelan's back with 4200 sats
he's a good guy
oh he sent me some value for value music
thank you
I will review those.
What apps or website do you use for value for value music?
V for V music, I think is what it's called.
And fountain.
Those are really my two go-tos.
And then sometimes I'll pop over to wave lake and see what they got new and trending.
W a V lake.com.
Koss, it's nice to hear from you.
Thanks for listening.
And thanks for boosting.
It's like hearing from an old friend.
I love it.
Hey, speaking of old friends,
I'll be 1984 is here with 4,080 Satoshis.
This is a tasty burger.
And he says, boost.
Boost.
Boost, indeed.
Thank you very much.
Gene Bean's back with 5,781 sats.
Regarding your system updates and agents using wrappers,
I'm still unclear on how you keep your agents from doing things outside of what you've wrapped.
They seem very determined to find ways at times.
yeah that can be true um i don't i don't really experience it once i've set up rappers and skills
and i've run through them a few times like usually i'll do it with like gpt gpt 55 or probably soon
56 as sort of a puppet master and once i've done the cycle about three times it catches the agent
trying to do that kind of stuff and that's always kind of been my i build the skills i build the
wrappers. Of course, you got the Knicks backing, and then I kind of run them through the puppet
process a few times. If you're still finding issues, it might be the model. That's always
possible. He says, I'm like PJ. While I wait for the price to go up again, I'm enjoying extra
ability to stack at a discount. Amen to that, brother. I'm just an extra boost since I didn't
hit send last week. Thanks, Gene. I appreciate you. Ace Ackerman's back with a row of ducks.
I think strategy will be fine, and the markets are in the process of betting Saylor's vision of digital credit.
The biggest factor in Bitcoin's price is now the flow of money in or out of the ETFs.
Unfortunately, not what Bitcoin represents.
Yeah, Ace.
In fact, I meant to make that mention is the ETFs are really driving things.
When we saw the macro conditions cool for a bit, even while Saylor was selling, it was the ETFs were the main source of buying.
And, of course, the DCA plebs.
but it wasn't like another treasury company stepping in for sailor or a nation state it was
the etfs which are a mix of everybody and i think it's such a good point that i should have made
earlier so thank you for bringing that up and so one of the things it seems like is you can kind of
tell the direction bitcoin's going by watching the direction the etf flows are going the harder
the flow out the harder the bitcoin is going to slide the stronger the flows in the more the
Bitcoin is going to pump.
There are a couple of APIs out there you can point your agent at, but not a lot.
But there are a couple you can point your agent at and then, you know, ask it how the ETFs are doing.
And it'll just give you a nice summary.
Not that I do that, Ace.
But I'm just saying you can.
The traders love the vol.
Good to hear from you.
Dash Dummies here with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Satoshi.
That's a baseball boost.
So the combination is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
episode 109 mentioned ETFs is a boomer thing.
I'm in the UK and I'm considering using the strategy ETF inside stocks and
shares.
I say tax free to generate yield without touching my main Bitcoin stack.
Keeps liquidity if needed.
Too risky?
Thoughts?
I mean,
you know,
my advice would always be try it with the amount of money you're,
you're comfortable not putting into Bitcoin.
That said,
uh,
I,
you know,
I,
when I say that they're a boomer product,
I kind of tease because you could see a world where if loan products or
something like that or lines of credit got really compelling with ETFs and you could swap Bitcoin
into an ETF and leverage that in a way that was safe and you weren't going to get wrecked and then
swap back to Satoshi's. I mean, even people like me might take advantage of that when the business
needs it or something like that. So it's all about your risk profile and the amount of money you're
willing to not put into Bitcoin. A lot of people say it's the amount of money you're willing to
lose. I think it's a different perspective. It's what is the amount of money you're not willing to
put into Bitcoin and will it do better than Bitcoin? It might. I mean, recently it might've
traditionally, no. And every time I've sat down with somebody and we've put everything out on the
chart and we've looked at it, it's okay. If you would have put your money here, you would have
put your money here. You would have put your money here. Inevitably it performs best in Bitcoin over
a five to 10 year period. Uh, maybe AI continues to be a liquidity suck and that money goes in other
places of the market, but you know, that's hard to say, but dash dummy, I think it's, it's not a
foolish question and I think it's
worth experimenting with personally.
I'd like to know how it goes for you.
But,
you know, be sure you can tolerate that risk
and not putting it into Bitcoin.
Good question. Thanks for
the boost. Mix is here with
3,333 Satoshis.
I like you. You're a hot
ticket. No message, just value. Thank
you very much. Appreciate that.
Love down baby on
comes in with 2,000 sats. I don't
understand what the heck is going on
here. We could call him Tim. He says, you may remember me
as Sir Lurks a lot. Oh!
Coming in hot with the boost!
It's Lurks!
You've been an inspiration.
Okay, well, come on.
Love Down Babylon is the name of my own value for value
podcast, which I'll be releasing soon.
Babylon is in the ancient city where the Jews
were held captive. Rastafarius
uses Babylon to mean the dominant culture
of control and separation. The ills
of our modern dystopia. The prison
of mental slavery, the Matrix.
My podcast is an attempt to share my journey out of my own mental slavery.
I got cut off there, but I'll plug the podcast one more time.
It is Love Down Babylon, and it'll be a value-for-value podcast by Sir Lurks, a.k.a. Tim, artist formerly known as Sir Lurks a lot.
Lurks, it was good to hear from you.
Thank you very much, and best of luck with the new podcast.
Nakamato 6102 is here with 15,864 sats.
This is the way.
When I hear Sailor explain, MSTR, or strike, it just goes over my head.
It served me well to only invest in things that I understand.
I just keep stacking sats into cold storage.
Thanks for the value.
Nakamoto, that's such a wise, I believe thing.
It's like the nice thing about Bitcoin as its core simplicity is you buy the satoshis,
you eventually put them in cold storage, and you shut up.
And you just sit on them.
And you don't have to worry about fiat games in the stock market or 401k stuff.
It's like you just put them in there and you just let the government debase the currency.
You just the natural process that they're engaging in.
And it's you don't have to do this gambling in this betting.
And it does mean in periods like right now in the short term, we don't make as much as maybe we could have.
But we're betting on the long term that this thing's going to rip.
And the reality is it's simpler.
It's less stress. It's less to think about. And there's so much to think about these days. Savings shouldn't be complicated. You should buy the sats, eventually put them in cold storage and shut up. It's really simple.
so I you know when I think about buying stocks and and you know getting dividends and you know
putting things into things that give me some sort of yield all that sounds appealing but it sounds
complicated and risky and I don't really understand how it works and I understand how Bitcoin works
so I think you nailed it Nakamoto great boost thank you very much for boosting that and keeping
them keep that wisdom coming that's the kind of stuff I love thank you for helping us help you
help us all. Hey, Adversary
17's here with 8,192
Satoshis. 10 Goldblums out
of a possible 10 Goldblums. I'll take some
Sailor stats.
Yes, strategy selling is good.
Along with all the other whales out there because it
means more stats for me.
Yes, to cheap
stats. Plus one also to a Nix
OS node. I don't feel like every
I ever have to worry about doing
updates on my server anymore.
It is really nice. I think
if the world understood it would be the way all computers are thanks adversaries appreciate you
it's always good to hear from you all right our next boost is user 54 with 10 000 sats
no messages value thank you very much and then we got sleets stacks sats coming in with 8888 sats
how's the magic number of the week 888 speaking of incorporating bitcoin into farming i have an
ant miner s9 that works fantastic as a 650 watt space heater while earning around 375 sats per day
through brains pool i also have a dozen chickens i've thought about combining the two and keeping
my chickens happier during the winter i also will get wi-fi out i'd have to get wi-fi out in the
coop. Well, yes, it's worth it. Somebody who put Wi-Fi out in his coop, let me tell you, it's worth
it because then you can also put cameras and sensors out there. Worth it. Also, I'd like to
know how you get it at 650 watts and how loud it is and if it would be too loud because I'm also
going to have to heat the hen house. I don't have a lot of power out in that area, but I might be
able to get five, 600 watts in that area. And then if there was a way to duct that minor into the
penthouse why not if i gonna be running 700 watts for heat anyways why not as long as the heat wasn too much You know what I mean Let me know what you think sleets
Is that how I say it?
Sleets?
S-L-E.
Sleaze?
Sleaze.
I don't know.
Slee stacker.
That's it.
Slee.
Yeah?
Ha ha.
I'm going to get it.
You make me want to be a better man.
You keep boosting it and I'll have to get it right.
You know what I mean?
But that's not possible.
Nothing can do that.
Come on now.
All right. Clear the gates. We've got a little royalty here.
Member boost from King Arthur coming in, and he's giving us the Holy Grail grenade clip.
Whenever Bitcoin goes, we will follow Chris, wherever it goes, be it BIP 110, 150 or 1500.
As long as you accept sats for interaction and we're alive, your true fans will follow.
And King Arthur did the right thing.
He sent me the time code of the YouTube clip that he was thinking of for the King Arthur boost, and I will play it now.
One, two, five.
Three.
Solid, solid, solid choice.
I think that's very solid.
I will try to remember to clip that.
It's a little long, but it's pretty solid.
Thank you, King Arthur.
Appreciate you being a member.
Thank you, everybody who boosted the show.
really. I mean, I put it out there for free. You would not believe the amount of time I work
on it. And, you know, I'm not complaining because this, I would rather do this than anything else
in the world. But I very much appreciate that some of you do find value in it and recognize
the hard work that goes into it. So thank you everybody who's either a member on Fountain or
Jupiter Party or those of you who boosted this week. Let's total it all up. So when we look at
our stream sats, those of you with a podcasting to do app that just stream the sats as you listened,
28 of you out there.
And really not too bad.
Collectively, you sat streamers
stacked 64,901 Satoshis.
Not too shabby.
Thank you very much.
When you combine that
with our FiatFun coupon,
oh, I don't think we got any fun FiatFun.
It was all Satoshis this week.
We had one free member boost
and the rest was all Sats.
We stacked a grand total of
364 Satoshis,
364,000, I should say,
295 Satoshis.
Oh.
Yeah, boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com is the way to do it,
or with a podcasting 2.0 app.
I think that's the first week since we launched the Web Boost
that it was all SATs still.
Nobody Fiat Fun Coupon.
You know, the TWIB audience, you guys.
You guys are so hardcore.
So thank you very much.
Appreciate you for supporting this,
And you can do it real easy these days.
Real easy if you haven't tried it out.
Go check it out.
We built that.
It's sitting on top of the Lightning Network in the podcasting 2.0 standard spec using all open source and Lightning on the back end.
It's pretty rad.
I'm kind of proud of it.
Well, how about some updates?
Quick quantum update for you.
And Blockstream Research has been working on a post-quantum signature opcode for Bitcoin.
It'll be opt-in because it will be larger signatures.
But it'll be opt-in, so not everybody will have to do it.
And Blockstream claims that it has been optimized for performance up to three transactions a second with 580-byte signatures.
Now, that is actually still well ahead of its heavier NIST alternatives.
by at least Blockstream's framing,
this is still the more performant alternative.
For ourselves at Blockstream,
we have a research team
that's been working on quantum for over a year now.
And we have a number of papers
and a specific proposal
for a Bitcoin optimized version of the NIST standard,
which was released in October, 2024.
So quite recently,
I think that's a reasonable path
for Bitcoin to add another signature scheme.
It already did add one in 2021.
So there's a precedent
and that would then be an opt-in way
for people to be quantum ready
without paying the cost of the big signatures today.
So I think that's important
because you don't want people to have
a kind of cost deterrent from adoption.
Then hopefully we can get a visibility in the market
of how many people are ready
and adapt from that in the future
if the rate of hardware progress speeds up.
I like to see them cook.
Let Bloxstream cook,
and they've got the liquid network to experiment things on,
and they've got the engineering talent
to know what the hell they're doing.
So I'm going to keep an eye on that for you.
Now I want to switch gears.
Jack Mahlers of Strike made a pretty big announcement this week.
Strike announced what they are calling volatility-proof loans.
Loans that don't get liquidated regardless of how low the Bitcoin price goes.
So for some context, here's how loans, basically all Bitcoin-backed loans, but loans on Strike typically work.
LTV at 65%, we start issuing our customers a warning.
Hey, here's a push notification, an email, pick up the phone, give you guys a call, let you know where your loan stands.
And an LTV of 70 percent.
Just to make it clear, LTV would be like I think it's a loan to value.
It's a ratio of the amount of Bitcoin you have and the value of your loan.
So they want often to see 50 percent more Bitcoin collateral than the loans for.
So if you're going to get a five thousand dollar loan, you have to put down ten thousand dollars of Bitcoin.
and then the amount that a ratio of the collateral to the amount of your loan especially when bitcoin
price is going down is called your ltv give you guys a call let you know where your loan stands
and ltv of 70 we issue our first margin call where we give you 72 hours that's three full days
to act that could pay down the loan a little bit add some more bitcoin as collateral and just get
yourself into a good standing let us know that you're aware and you're addressing your loan
And an LTV of 85%, we have no choice but to start to partially sell some of the collateral to get you back in good standing. Now, I think we do this best in the industry because we do not sell all of your Bitcoin. We would not do that. We don't want to do that. We care too much about you guys.
But what we have to do is at that LTV threshold, we start to sell little amounts to get you back into these healthier LTVs. And that's how our product traditionally has worked up until this point.
Yeah, and that's pretty much how all Bitcoin backed loans work. Strike has a pretty good plan in the sense that they do give you that three day notice and they kind of have different thresholds and then they do only liquidate as much as they have to. There's various different policies there for the different lenders and the DeFi program sometimes just automatically liquidate as soon as a price point is hit, etc, etc.
But that's how the strike ones work traditionally is when the price of Bitcoin dropped, when you no longer had the collateral to cover your loan, you had a few days to get more Bitcoin in there or pay off the amount of your loan that you need to pay off.
They're changing that now with what they call a volatility free loan.
And Jack introduces that here.
Just solve it. Introducing volatility-proof loans. A Bitcoin-backed loan that a price move
can never trigger liquidation of your collateral. No warnings, no margin calls, no automatic sell-off.
I'm telling you guys, this is not a drill. You're hearing me correctly. So to make it very clear,
there's no price move that can trigger a liquidation. So as I have in this visual,
the Bitcoin price moves every day. It can go up 300% in a year, but then it goes down 50%, 80%.
Obviously, the trajectory is up, but that level of volatility when you have a Bitcoin-backed loan
is the biggest amount of feedback we've gotten. If you open a volatility-proof loan,
the Bitcoin never moves. I'm going to say that again. It never moves. We don't care
what the price is. We don't care the wick down. We don't care the LTV. You're good. You're good.
When you get a volatility-proof loan, we have your back.
No warnings, no margin calls, no liquidations.
You sleep well at night.
Now, it almost sounds too good to be true.
So how can they do this?
Well, for one thing, it is going to cost you more.
At night.
Now, how does it compare in the other capacities?
The maximum initial LTV is 45%, not 50%.
That's marginal, but I want to point it out.
transparency, transparency, transparency.
The terms we gonna start this out at only a six month term Now this is the first product of its kind to market accessible to everyone in an app It really really innovative It very
very new. So don't hold me to all of this. I'd love to offer a six year volatility proof loan.
And I think someday we will be able to get there. But for now, the term is six months
on a volatility proof loan. We have to charge more for this. The secret sauce is that we're
taking the extra charge that we're giving you guys and we're putting on hedges in the market
to protect all of us. Okay. So it's very sophisticated. It's not easy. It's very
difficult actually, but of course it is worth it, but it has to be more expensive. So we add 2.95%
to your rate. Now our standard loans start at 7.75%. So for me, I think Bitcoin is going to
outperform 7.75 to 11.25%, even if you add 2% to 3% on top of that. I love the pricing. I'm a
customer of the product. I think it's great, but you guys should know that. The protection isn't
free. And then as far as retrieval of the collateral, our standard loan, we allow you
to take the Bitcoin back if the price appreciates. Let's say you open a 50% LTV loan and Bitcoin
quadruples to new all-time highs and we're in a euphoric bull run, we don't want all of that
collateral. Feel free to take some back. We just want the minimum to collateralize the loan we gave
you. There is no collateral retrieval for volatility proof loans, at least not yet. So I want to be
very clear about the trade-offs. But if you're okay with a slightly shorter term and a little
bit higher of a fee, there is no price move that can liquidate you. So just to reiterate, this is
the price of protection, the term six months, the lower maximum starting LTV, the slightly higher
rate, and the fact that during that six months, we don't want you to come and pull the collateral
Bitcoin back out. And this is all for now. Let us launch it. Let us build our feet here. But
we've been testing the product internally. It's unbelievable. I'm very proud of the team. I think
this is truly innovative and a sign of the times of where all of these features and tools are going.
I do think it's a great product. I mean, the six month term is too short for me.
But, you know, maybe if you time it right, it could be just fine for some people.
But as he said, this is a version one and I'm going to keep my eye on it.
But I like where they're going now with the line of credit, the bill pay, the standard loan,
and now the volatility proof loan. Plus, they just have a pretty good general app interface and all
that and they have excellent lightning network support. I'm not, you know, I've sort of hesitated
on my support of strike, but over the years I've just seen them continue to deliver on what they
say they're going to do. So for right now, I'm, I'm a fan of where they're at and I like the way
they're rolling this stuff out and they just seem like they stay heads down and they just keep
working on it and keep building and producing the stuff that their customers are asking for.
Now in the category of a thing that nobody asked for, let's do a BIP 110 update, or of course the
reduced data temporary soft fork, which is promised to limit transaction data by disabling
certain op codes in order to eliminate certain types of spam. At least that's what we were told.
And then we're told it's not about spam until then we're told about it's about spam again.
I've been going back and forth with people and I find that to be exhausting. But I do have a few
BIP 110 updates for you. So we're about 30 days out from BIP 110 activating. Very exciting. And
this week, the ordinals community announced that they were now BIP 110 compatible. Yes, friends,
ordinals are now BIP 110 ready. Looking right here at the GitHub, the issue is ready to go.
The work is done. They write, this PR adds an alternative inscription envelope. This allows
them to push inscriptions and ordinals into the BIP 110 network. And they say right here,
It looks good to me.
Let's wait until BIP-110 activates to merge this.
So once again, proving that BIP-110 will never stop spam.
There's also a group of people that are organizing a massive spam plan for the BIP-110 chain once it goes live and loading up with crap.
It turns out that BIP-110 makes ordinals less than 1% more expensive while also breaking generic miniscript support.
So the big problem that BIP-110 has right now is besides less than about 20% node adoption, they have around 1% miner adoption.
But Ocean, they have a plan to tip the scales.
Hi, everyone. I'm Mark Ortimko, president and co-founder of Ocean.
Over the past several weeks, we've seen a strong uptick in interest from miners looking for a simple way to express their support for BIP-110.
We've listened, and today we're launching a second Stratum endpoint for BIP-110 signaling.
up until now datum has been the primary mechanism for block construction and optional signaling on
ocean datum gives miners full control over how blocks are built and whether or not they choose
to include signaling in the blocks they find this update simply adds another option for miners who
need a dedicated endpoint for signaling at ocean we believe miner sovereignty is essential to
bitcoin's long-term success miners should have a voice and we're building the tools to give them
one. Thank you. Yes, part of what gets me about it is the way they phrase it. So it's manipulative
because the default will now be that you signal for BIP-110 unless you use the non-default endpoint.
Well, how many miners are following social media that are going to catch this little nuance?
How many people that signed up for Ocean because they believed in the promise of decentralizing
and helping what people perceived was the actual threat,
which was centralization of mining and hash rate.
So they sign up for Ocean believing that they're taking a stand against that,
that they're decentralizing the hash rate,
only to have Ocean turn on them to be a political actor
and now, by default, make their mining signal for BIP-110
unless people go in and change their configuration.
And this has been a very tidy little coordination.
because you've got Start9 on the node side,
using the ideals of Bitcoin to sell the Start9 node and hardware.
And they're now the primary source of the plebs running Nott's nodes and signaling BIP-110.
They also made it super easy to spin up a bunch of SOC nodes on Tor
to inflate the numbers of support for BIP-110,
making Start9 a political actor and pushing people towards Nott's and BIP-110.
And then you have Ocean, who promised to save us from centralized mining, flipping on the signal for BIP-110 by default.
Again, another abuse of power and political action.
The real irony was that I wanted to put my mining hash rate into Ocean.
That's where I wanted to put my hash rate.
And for BIP-110 to be successful, they're going to need a lot more knots nodes.
that would effectively centralize Bitcoin around Luke Dasher.
And Ocean, who employs Bitcoin Mechanic,
who has been one of the loudest advocates for BIP-110,
is the head of communications for Ocean.
All very tidy there.
And then you have Start9 no doubt benefiting
from their besties running the Bitcoin network.
So you will have Luke running the node,
Start9 running the deployment for the end users,
and Ocean signaling BIP-110.
They're trying to centralize power.
It won't work.
It's kind of pathetic, but it's obvious what's happening.
And the plebs out there, they want this because it feels good.
It looks like the right thing.
They want to make Bitcoin hard money, and everybody agrees with that.
We want Bitcoin to be the hardest money in the world.
It is the hardest money in the world, and we don't want it to be filled with spam.
But it's not being filled with spam.
There is an economic system to sort that out,
and right now it's telling us it's not a problem.
transaction fees are one sat right now for for a high speed transaction or a medium speed like
they're just one sat per vbyte right now just it doesn't matter what you want to do or how much you
want to send it's cheap and that's telling us that's a signal and it's been cheap for a couple
of years now the plebs want this when these people have a clear incentive to centralize
controller on Bitcoin Bitcoin And then you have an audience captured boomer on YouTube that telling them this is great And I believe watching this Bitcoin greatest threat is not BlackRock It not
Western governments getting their fiscal house in order and finding the hard money standard once
again, reducing the need for Bitcoin. It's the ignorance and lack of faith of Bitcoin's own
users. The people who constantly think they know better than Satoshi. The people who want to save
Bitcoin. You're the problem. Your ego's the problem. You're the problem. And you know,
amazingly, some of these BIP 110 supporters, most of them won't admit that it centralizes control
around Luke and Ocean and all that. But some of them do. They're not that dumb. They realize
what's going on here and they like the idea. I'm not making this up. They realize it would
effectively put Luke in control of Bitcoin. And they think that's just great because after all,
Linux has Linus and that's worked out just great
This is a post
by Robert Allen
hashtag Bip110
at Satoshi Sound on X
Very long post
I think it's funny in here because the person he wants
to put in control of Bitcoin he writes
I've never met Luke in person but I have engaged
with him online. He strikes me as both highly
intelligent and highly autistic
Yeah because they've debated religion
online. Super productive
work there
It's a very long post, but here's his rationale for why Bitcoin needs a benevolent dictator.
He says,
We already have a solo gatekeeper experiment for three decades.
We've seen it.
It's called Linux.
Linus Torvalds has been the benevolent dictator of the most important open source project on
earth since 1991.
The kernel he gatekeeps runs much of the internet, every Android phone, and with some irony,
many of the machines Bitcoin nodes run on.
single gatekeeper review is not an exotic risk.
It's a governance model of the most successful software project in history.
And then don't worry, guys, because Luke says once he does have total control and power,
because even Luke realizes where this going, he's going to give it up.
Just trust him.
This is what he writes.
Third, most important, the king is disciplined by exit.
Here's Luke himself on knots gaining node share, quote, and this is a Luke quote, quote,
and knots can lose it just as fast if we do something truly insane what we need what we
need next as soon as we get through bip 110's activation is a real alternative so users have
options so just once they get through bip 110 luke's gonna really encourage somebody else to
make a competitor to his node project that would reduce his power and influence over the chain he
just successfully got control over just trust him guys and then it's obvious right because he writes
here, the man accused of seeking the throne is publicly asking for more competitors. Well,
just trust him. Robert Allen represents a type of thinking around BIP-110 that seems to wholly
miss the value of Bitcoin. Could you imagine if we went from having no leader and no central boss
to having King Luke and how devastating that would be for Bitcoin? And these people,
these BIP110 supporters
are writing
these long silicoes
on why Luke would be a great Linus
for Bitcoin.
I can't believe I have to say this
but there are differences between
Bitcoin
and Linux.
First of all
Linus
created Linux. Luke
did not create Linux.
Luke is not Satoshi Nakamoto.
Linux is Linus's project.
Always has been.
Linus didn't step away.
Linux is not a monetary asset.
It's a software project.
Linux has an ecosystem that is valuable around it.
Linux itself is not an asset worth trillions of dollars.
The dynamics around the control and the decentralized nature of that
are a lot different than an open source project
that's primarily used on servers and mobile devices.
Okay?
They're not apples and oranges.
They are, it's like comparing apples and oranges.
You're not comparing apples to apples here.
Linus has a united federation
of planet-sized developer team beneath him
that grows every single kernel release
by the thousands.
Knotts has Luke.
luke's the central gatekeeper of knots he is the dictator he's not a benevolent dictator
he is the dictator there is not a similarity between linux and bitcoin in that regard
yes they are both open source yes they're going to change the world they both are
that's about it right there like this kind of thinking is sick it's ego infected thinking
the BIP 110 supporters are fueled by feels and dreams to save bitcoin and in doing so they assert
they know more about what is best for your private property your personal property they know better
that's what they're asserting they know better than you do and you're just you're just a fool
if you don't agree with them or you're a pedo or all kinds of accusations and all of them have
forgotten the humble part of the stay humble and stack sets. They've all forgotten the humble part.
The golden rule of holding Bitcoin is Bitcoin changes you. You do not change Bitcoin. And
seems like even some long timers are going to have to learn that lesson the hard way.
All right, let's wrap up with something quick here. Just a couple of quick hats. I want to
cover the Texas Stock Exchange because something is quietly shifting on Wall Street and Bitcoiners,
we should keep an eye on these things.
So I want to bring you up to speed.
Chino, move over New York City.
Right now we're taking a live look at downtown Dallas.
Today, the Texas Stock Exchange launches trading.
The exchange is the most well-funded challenge
to the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ.
KB's Allison Martinez joins us from the newsroom
to explain when you can start trading.
Fill us in, Allison.
Yvonne, good morning.
Governor Abbott says Texas has become the eighth largest economy in the world.
Today, Dallas is officially throwing its hat in the ring to become a major financial hub.
The real test begins today as the Texas Stock Exchange commences trading.
The Texas Stock Exchange is a Dallas-based startup.
A phased rollout starts today and will continue over the course of July.
Now, here's why I think this matters to Bitcoiners.
My gut tells me this is going to be a hotbed of real world assets, blockchain shenanigans and pushing for 24 seven trading of typical assets that are closed on holidays and weekends.
That's where a lot of this is going to be coming.
I think that's kind of the reason why the people behind this put this thing together is to push some of this stuff forward.
And so I suspect there's going to be a lot of noise that comes out of this.
a lot of stuff that's going to be scammy and, you know,
that the real world assets are going to be selling a lot of crap.
So the same skills we use today are going to apply when this happens.
You're going to have to watch for the signal and the noise and, you know, stack sats, right?
Just stay humble, keep stacking, and don't get distracted by whatever products
this Texas exchange is going to come out with because they're going to compete,
they're going to compete hard, and they're going to try to go for as modern as possible.
And now we're going to wrap up with a little bullish sentiment.
As you know, when the price even takes like a 1% dip, I pointed out the media really questions the fundamental use case of Bitcoin.
If it's been a big pump and dump all along, if it's now going to zero, it's hilarious.
And this week, $383 million Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, explained to the short-term thinkers over at CNBC what the real deal is.
Bitcoin's higher today, but it has been a brutal run for the cryptocurrency.
It's around 50% now off its all-time highs.
For more on where it might head from here,
we're joined now by Bill Miller IV.
He's Miller Value Partner, CIO, and Chairman.
Welcome back.
Thanks for having me, Scott.
Why is Bitcoin performing so poorly?
I think the main reason right now is the fact that Clary Act
Like it could be stalling on ethics concerns, but you look at it over a much longer time
horizon, the fundamental case for Bitcoin has never been stronger.
So the CBO this year is projecting $1.9 trillion in a deficit.
So let's look at that from a different angle.
The marginal obligations being created that are unfunded by our country is 50% bigger
than the entire market cap of Bitcoin.
So you have to think, is this the best way of accounting for capital when we can just
come up with new obligations year in and year out. The debt cycle gets worse and worse. I think
there are better ways to account for capital that are based on consensus, energy, and transparency.
So we're still very optimistic about the technology over the long term.
I know, but I didn't hear you say anything about the use case of it. I mean, what if there was
never really a credible fundamental story to begin with? Well, then it might not exist, right? So
Bitcoin came into existence in the heels of the 2008, 2009 financial crisis when everyone saw
all of the money printing coming down the pike. And that's what happened. So the fundamental use
case is stronger. And you have to look at the underlying sets of dynamics out there around you
when you make market calls. And so the fundamentals are still incredibly strong.
What if the biggest problem here is it's simple and that there's just a lot of money going into
other more durable, fast-growing areas of the market around the AI trade.
And Bitcoin just can't compete with that.
Well, I think AI very, very long-term is incredibly deflationary.
And to make up for that, you're going to have to come up with a whole bunch more dollars
to fill in for all the debts that are out there.
So one of the ways out of the debt spiral is inflation.
And Bitcoin is a hedge against that over the long So I think overall that a very good thing over the long term for Bitcoin
All right, let's check in on the state of the network. Wrapping up at block height 957,221.
The current U.S. price to one Bitcoin, 62,130 U.S. greenbacks. That puts our sats per dollar at
1,610 satoshis for one US dollar.
We are down 50.8% from our all-time high of $126,180
275 days ago, October 6th, 2025.
Our retarget date for the difficulty is July 11th
with a current downward adjustment of 3.3%
and the reachable Bitcoin nodes on the network
suspiciously continues to grow week by week.
A little, I don't know, it's numbers odd.
It's fluctuating in a way that I find suspicious.
27,069 nodes on the network at the moment.
Our 24-hour price change is down 2.5%.
Our seven-day, though, still up 3.8%.
3.8 since our last show.
Immediate transaction fee, one set per V-byte.
It's cheap.
Rebalance, move stuff around, consolidate.
State of the network's great.
It's a great time to do it.
And look at that.
9.57.
That's a great block height to wrap up on.
Well, if you made it this far, you probably ought to check out the links in the show notes at thisweekinbitcoin.show.
My goal here is to give you a show that doesn't get distracted by the politics or the emotions or the games, any of that,
but focuses on the signal so you can plan for yourself your friends your family your future whatever it might be So you can always let me know how I did with a boost boost I also want to hear your take on the four cycle
Yes, still.
It's still a topic, and I want to hear it.
I want to hear your updated four-year cycle take.
So boost that in.
Also, any thoughts you have on Sailor as well.
I am going to leave you with a value-for-value track, but I want to give you right now a language warning.
There is some swearing in this track.
so if you have young ones that are sensitive to that
you can turn it off here in just a moment
but there's your warning for that
it just to me felt like this track was too perfect
it's right on theme after our BIP 110 update
so I had to play it
alright I'll see you next week
for your value for value track
it is Off The Chain by Neon Rooks
I didn't want to have to do this but
don't fuck with my money
You want it off the chain
It's off the chain
You want it off the chain
It's off the chain
Bitcoin is money
We want the same thing
Zero tolerance for shit
Corners can't believe I gotta say it
After how many years
This is how you wanna play it
Fuck around with consensus
Get yourself burnt
Telling Twitter lies just to get the plebs heard
Talking about renting hash just to up your net worth
What you mean?
Bitcoin is dead if this doesn't work
All the young sats and stackers
Keep your head up
Misinformation is the devil
Don't get fed up
We'll teach you how to verify
Expose the lie
Go all in, do or die
Gotta survive
Clear skies on the other side
You want it off the chain
This is off the chain
You want it off the chain
This is off the chain
Bitcoin is money
We say the same thing Repeat after me Cypherpunks write code But I seen what you been writing and it ain going in my nose You can call it hating with your dangerous activation
Wrist splitting the chain, making it explode.
Props to Luke for taking spam debate off kilter.
I got a thousand ways to hustle, data, pass a filter.
Don't get it twisted thinking that we're about the kids.
But since you throw stones from glass houses, we know what it is.
No need for a rejection client when yours flopped on its own.
It's time to show some remorse for the sour seeds you have saw
You want it off the chain
It's off the chain
You want it off the chain
It's off the chain
Bitcoin is money
We want the same thing
Reduce data?
I don't think so
Everybody know how the blockchain grows
This supposed to be temporary
The next step gonna be even more scary
Threatened miners with lawyers all you want
You think you run shit and they know you don't
You don't get to choose who, what and when
Fees ain't even high like back then
One last thing for you protocol attackers
From Craig Wright to St. Luke
On behalf of all sad stackers
Motherfuck you
You want it off the chain
Off the chain
You want it off the chain
Off the chain
Bitcoin is money
You don't want the same thing
You want it off the chain
You don't want the same thing