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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 123.

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My name is Chris.

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Chris, L-A-S dot com, Jupiter Broadcasting dot com.

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Well, here we are.

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We just got done having some fun with cheap money and limitless AI optimism helping Bitcoin turn back around.

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And then this week, those things started to peter out.

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They're both reversing just as an energy shock seems to be nipping at our feet with inflation.

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So it brings up the question, what happens when the Fed can't rescue the market, but they have to do something?

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For their own credibility, they have to do something.

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And how will Bitcoin respond to what is undoubtedly just going to add more pressure to the situation?

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That's why we're starting with macro.

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We got to start with energy this week.

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It seems to be the clear and present danger around the world.

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And there have been recent developments that are reducing supply and causing people to panic about energy crisis.

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It's not me saying it. Apparently, it's the oil executives.

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Oil right now pulling back a little, still 103 on WTI.

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Brent also pulling back slightly after hitting its highest level since May yesterday.

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Top oil executives now saying that the global fuel crisis is already here.

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The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting its lowest level since November of 1982.

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And President Trump now weighing the use of the Defense Production Act to boost refining capacity to help bring down energy costs.

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OK, so that's the state of things. And this next clip kind of gets into the military dynamics that led to the recent supply crunch.

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Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure under attack, putting upward pressure on global energy prices and pressure on the White House to intervene.

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These satellite images show the critical Saudi East-West pipeline before and after drone strikes,

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Saudi Arabia blaming Iran-backed militia in Iraq.

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This comes as Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen claim to control multiple strategic islands in the Red Sea

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and the port city of Mocha, expanding their ability to disrupt Saudi exports

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or any commercial shipping here in the Bab al-Mendeb Strait,

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threatening a one-two punch to global oil supply as Iran obstructs shipments in the Strait of Hormuz.

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President Trump saying this when asked if Iran is behind the strikes on the Saudi pipeline.

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Axios was first to report Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman personally called President

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Trump twice last week, urging him to launch strikes on the Houthis.

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Any new aggression will be met with broader and more intense operations.

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Back in the U.S., the impact on drivers is getting more painful.

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Gas averaging $4.31 a gallon and diesel hitting another record high of $6.23.

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Yeah, diesel is the real problem.

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Boy, I'd love to see $4.31 a gallon here in Washington.

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The cheapest is the tribal gas, which is about $5.10.

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And diesel is easily another dollar more than that.

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And it's painful.

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Diesel is really the one of particular concern because we all know this.

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Everything basically goes up when diesel goes up.

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It's one of the key inputs to the economy because so many things move by diesel or involved

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with manufacturing or creation of food or housing, et cetera, et cetera.

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Diesel prices go up.

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Everything goes up.

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And I've been saying now for a few weeks, the longer this conflict has gone on, the more

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the knobs of pressure get turned up on the energy market.

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The bond market gets harder to control.

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We've been witnessing that.

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you know, Buffalo Besson's just kind of pissing in the wind with his buybacks.

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And the world economy ends up getting squeezed from both ends.

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We get inflation and you get also the risk of stagflation.

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We are now in a total rock and hard place.

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And this is a total 180 from where we were back in February.

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This is Stephen Major.

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He brings up how much things have shifted since just before the conflict started.

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Back in February of this year, before the war in this region started,

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that was on the 27th of February,

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the yield on 10-year treasuries was below 4% and the market was implying three cuts.

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Here we are six, seven months later, we've got 5% 10-year yields and three hikes.

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So one thing I would say is that you've had a six rate hike move in the space of six, seven months.

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That's 150 basis points.

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That explains the entirety of that 10-year yield shift and a bit more, really.

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So, I think that a lot of the narrative out there has got very bearish on bonds, and it

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tends to talk about fiscal policy in the same breath as being bearish and about the supply

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of bonds and all of the inflation risk premium and what have you.

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I just don't really see it.

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The term premium hasn't gone up.

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People have been claiming that it has.

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It has not gone up.

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You can see it on the Bloomberg terminal.

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The curve has flattened because it's been pricing in the rate hikes.

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Inflation expectations are controlled.

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Spot inflation's a bit higher.

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So I could see one hike, and then next year we could be back into the easing mode.

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It's the war in this region that has ruined the best laid plans.

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The best laid plans.

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Whose best laid plans?

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Buffalo Bessent, of course.

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He said he was the house, and the market said, okay, sure, hold my beer.

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The U.S. 10-year yield has now hit its highest level since 2007, as we've seen it pass.

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That handle we flag for you at the top of the programme, 501.87.

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We're now 502 on the 10-year.

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This is inflation, fears linked to rising energy prices,

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concerns mounting around government and corporate borrowing levels as well.

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All of these moves happening, this new milestone for the 10-year Treasury yield

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as the Fed prepares to kick off its two-day policy meeting.

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Markets pricing in an over 90% chance of a rate hike tomorrow

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and fully pricing in a second move higher by the end of this year.

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Let's bring in Ven Ram, Cross Asset Strategist at Bloomberg MLive for more.

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Ven, you joined us at a fortuitous moment where we just passed that highest moment since 2007.

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Talk us through the factors that drove us here and how significant it is going into that Fed meeting.

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Morning, Stephen. Good to be talking to you.

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So, look, I mean, there's been a huge seismic shift in demand for funds, demand for capital, investment capital fundamentally.

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because if you rewind the tape back to the pandemic,

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you know, at that time, you know,

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most governments could raise funds at 0% or near there,

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but gone all those days.

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And remember, we are not too far off

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the negative rates regime as well

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that prevailed just before the pandemic.

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Now we are in this situation where, you know,

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there is increasing demand for investment capital,

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whether it's AI-led binge

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or whether it's governments funding

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wanting to fund their deficits,

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the demand for capital is huge,

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whereas the supply of funds has remained

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more or less the same. So I think that's shifting up the equilibrium rate for funds, the neutral rate.

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So I think that's what is weighing on yields at the longer end of the curve.

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Yeah, they love to speculate. They love to breathlessly speculate. But of course, raise rates they did.

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It is a rate increase, the first of a cycle, a unanimous decision to raise their benchmark rate

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A quarter point to three and three quarters to four percent.

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Sixteen members of the committee anticipate another increase this year.

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Only two would hold here.

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Kevin Warsh, the chairman, does not submit a dot.

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Eight, almost half, see another increase, another rate increase next year, while six call for no change.

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Four see rate cuts in 2027.

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One of them calls for rates to fall to three and a quarter percent.

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Almost as significant, they raised their long-run view, essentially the neutral rate, to 3.2% from 3.1% in June.

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Who cares what they think? Like, any of that long-term stuff matters.

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But let's get into the press conference for a few moments.

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This was Warsh's big moment because the question was, would he actually do it?

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Would he risk popping the AI bubble? Would he risk angering Trump?

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Would he actually raise rates?

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The bond market clearly wanted him to do it.

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He walked out there and he kind of gave us his summary of their thinking Good day

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pace. While uncertainty remains elevated, owing in part to geopolitical developments,

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domestic spending has been resilient. In part to geopolitical developments,

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aka the conflict with Iran. Warsh says that the key issue really, though, came down to just

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inflation being too high for too long. Yet for more than five years, inflation has been running

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above target. So our predominant focus is on the price stability side of our mandate.

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The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long.

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It's almost a meme at this point, but Warsh loves to go on about how he's different than J-PAL.

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This regime doesn't give forward guidance. We don't want to distort the signal from the market.

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We need to be able to read what the market's telling us and not have us influencing the market.

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We don't give forward guidance.

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He goes on about it all the time.

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We don't do it.

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This won't surprise you.

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I'm not in the forward guidance business.

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No.

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The decision we made today was a sober decision, serious decision, responsible decision, one that we have been preparing for and thinking about in my 110 or 20 days here.

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You know, he doesn't give forward guidance.

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And yet, throughout this press conference, he implied over and over again that what he said a couple of months ago at Jackson Hole was basically forward guidance.

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Last month in Wyoming, I expressed my commitment to a monetary policy discipline, not to a decision.

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I defined the standard for action.

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We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective.

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clearly and at sufficient speed. Today, the FOMC decided that this standard has not been satisfied.

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The committee's unanimous vote shows our resolve to achieve price stability on a timelier basis.

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We aim to ensure that credit and financial conditions are consistent over time with our

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mandate, that relative price changes in some sectors of the economy do not broaden, that

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inflation compensation in market prices stays low and that inflation expectations remain well anchored.

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So what he's saying here is this is what I told you at Jackson Hole in Wyoming.

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And look, now I'm coming.

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I'm following through on what I told you.

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That is forward guidance.

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And then he did it again.

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There's been a pretty wide ranging set of data, including the labor markets, that the economy has strengthened.

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You might have heard me say that in Jackson Hole a few weeks ago.

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It's a judgment that I have and the committee has.

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second inflation trends i said in jackson hole trends matter i said in jackson hole we need to

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look outside the window and interrogate reality so we're going to play this game we're going to

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play this game where he's going to sit there and tell you to your face that he doesn't do for

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guidance that you're silly for thinking he does for guidance he's not in the business of for guidance

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and then he's going to tell you what i just told you previously was for guidance and if you followed

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it, you knew where we were going. I hate these games. I hate these games and I hate all the

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ceremony around a 25 basis point rate increase. All of it is ridiculous. It's like, it's just,

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it's just such an old system and I find it so tiresome. And it's the new face of it. He's not

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as good of an actor as the previous face. The previous face was a much better actor,

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but Bitcoin didn't really seem to mind too much. It kind of shrugged off the rate hike. I think it

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was already priced in, much like it seems the Clarity Act was.

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So this is kind of the other macro thing going on for Bitcoin this week.

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For some reason, for a brief moment, the crypto lobby felt like this week was their moment

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in time to get the Clarity Act moving again because the Senate was returning from break

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and they saw a window of opportunity and they seemed to feel like it was going to happen.

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Fox Business Alert.

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The countdown is on for the vote on the Clarity Act.

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The bill clarifies federal rules and regulations for digital currencies and tokens

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and divides oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC.

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The Senate's procedural vote on the bill is set for tomorrow at 2.15 p.m. Eastern,

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this after months and months and months of...

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You know the hype is real when they have a countdown clock on screen?

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22 hours, 49 minutes, 38 seconds until Clarity Act vote.

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The hype is real.

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Set for tomorrow at 2.15 p.m. Eastern.

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This after months and months and months of grappling and arguing.

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So it needs 60 yes votes to advance to a full Senate vote.

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Last night, Republican senators sweetened and tweaked ethics and banking provisions

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in order to broaden bipartisan support and quell Democratic opposition.

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Crypto exchange Coinbase has been front and center in pushing Congress to support the landmark bill.

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On the eve of the test of the cloture vote, shares right now are up nearly 10 percent.

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First on Fox Business, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong joins me live to game out the chances of passage tomorrow.

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Brian, there are 53 GOP senators.

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And for passage, all Republicans would need to be on board, along with seven additional Democrats.

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All right. So spoiler alert. We know the Clarity Act did not pass or did not pass closure.

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So as we watch the remainder of this clip, which I'm not going to play much more of,

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Let's try to analyze what Brian miscalculated here.

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Where did Brian miscalculate?

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And let me know what you think.

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What are you hearing about how members are lining up?

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Well, pretty optimistic that we're going to get more than 60 votes tomorrow.

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There's been thousands of hours of work put in by both sides of the aisle over the last few years to get to a really good bipartisan work product.

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And it's time that we finally got some clear rules in America for crypto, for consumer protection, to give new tools to law enforcement, to ensure that the future of the financial system can actually be built here in America under the U.S. regulatory perimeter.

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So this vote tomorrow is a massive moment.

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We're going to see who's in favor of American leadership in finance and who's against it.

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So there's no do-overs.

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Well, that's true.

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But you never know until it actually happens.

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Oh, boy, wasn't she right?

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You know, and, you know, I think the reason why he maybe this could be one read is I think he thought they had really made all the compromises necessary.

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The original House bill was 257 pages long.

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Then the Senate committee got to work.

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They started doing negotiations with the Democrat caucus.

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In July of 2026, the merged updated text went to 616 pages.

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And then the September draft that we just got like 48 hours ago before the closure vote was 635 pages. The vast majority of that, I ran it all through Grok, the vast majority of that is contributions by the Democrat participants.

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It was additions that they wanted.

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A lot around KML, or what is it?

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Not KYC, but AML, anti-money laundering,

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and those types of things.

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And then, of course, the ethics provisions

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and things like that.

223
00:16:19,551 --> 00:16:22,431
It seemed like they also came to some kind of understanding

224
00:16:22,431 --> 00:16:23,891
around stablecoin yields.

225
00:16:24,451 --> 00:16:26,371
I think Brian gets a lot of flack for that

226
00:16:26,371 --> 00:16:27,931
because he fought for that back in January,

227
00:16:27,931 --> 00:16:30,031
but they did seem to come to some sort of understanding

228
00:16:30,031 --> 00:16:31,571
around stablecoin yields,

229
00:16:32,131 --> 00:16:34,751
not quite as ideal as what Armstrong wanted,

230
00:16:34,831 --> 00:16:36,291
but they got an understanding with the banks.

231
00:16:36,291 --> 00:16:46,291
That was something. But they never really got through the ethics stuff. I mean, they kind of did on paper. But the next day, the Clarity Act went for a vote and it failed to move forward.

232
00:16:46,291 --> 00:17:01,371
John Stoltzfus, we just got breaking news. The U.S. Senate has voted 50 to 49 against advancing that crypto regulatory bill, the Clarity Act.

233
00:17:01,371 --> 00:17:04,971
We just had Brian Armstrong of Coinbase on yesterday.

234
00:17:05,271 --> 00:17:08,071
He said he was very positive about it.

235
00:17:08,231 --> 00:17:11,051
Looks like this has not passed.

236
00:17:11,131 --> 00:17:12,771
They needed 60 votes.

237
00:17:12,991 --> 00:17:33,722
There are 53 Republican senators They needed seven Democrats We not sure of the breakdown but some Republicans may have been against this Let take a look at Bitcoin It is falling three full percentage points now or to Really retreating from the that a recent high that it made

238
00:17:33,722 --> 00:17:42,082
Now, the Warren types, you know, they gave their speeches that they always do that didn't really make sense because they say things that just aren't true about the bill.

239
00:17:42,222 --> 00:17:45,762
But the more nuanced arguments, I think, were out there as well.

240
00:17:46,022 --> 00:17:50,382
And even when I listen to those, I don't really think they add up.

241
00:17:50,462 --> 00:17:52,802
I don't think the reasons to vote against Clarity add up.

242
00:17:53,062 --> 00:17:57,802
And I say that as somebody who I really couldn't give a crap if Clarity passes or not.

243
00:17:58,262 --> 00:18:00,102
I don't think it really matters to Bitcoin in the long run.

244
00:18:00,142 --> 00:18:01,902
I've talked about that in previous episodes.

245
00:18:02,202 --> 00:18:06,762
But objectively looking at this, I think the Democrats played Lummis and her friends.

246
00:18:06,902 --> 00:18:12,422
They played them for more than a year and they got so many compromises in this thing.

247
00:18:12,562 --> 00:18:18,922
And then they used it as essentially a weapon in the midterms and they all voted against it anyways.

248
00:18:19,282 --> 00:18:25,742
So I'm not buying the reason they're putting out there because to me it looks like political strategy and not so much about the ethics stuff.

249
00:18:25,942 --> 00:18:28,882
I am one of the lead sponsors of the Clarity Act.

250
00:18:28,882 --> 00:18:37,522
I was also there on Genius because I believe that this is an industry that absolutely positively has to be regulated and has to protect consumers.

251
00:18:37,822 --> 00:18:44,722
I've been very clear all along that, you know, this there is no way that we're going to put our head in the sand and pretend that crypto isn't here.

252
00:18:44,782 --> 00:18:49,022
We have close to 70 million Americans who already own cryptocurrency.

253
00:18:49,602 --> 00:18:53,262
So it's very important that we regulate this industry.

254
00:18:53,562 --> 00:18:55,162
And I've been clear about that all along.

255
00:18:55,222 --> 00:18:57,842
We also have to make sure that innovation continues to grow.

256
00:18:57,842 --> 00:19:09,162
But what we must do, and I was clear about this, is have very clear ethics in place to prevent the grift and the corruption that we have seen from this administration from growing.

257
00:19:09,642 --> 00:19:18,342
I was abundantly clear that I would never support a proposal that allowed the president to continue the grift and the corruption without being checked.

258
00:19:18,602 --> 00:19:26,022
It's a very sad thing that they just didn't have the moral fortitude to hold this president accountable for the grift and corruption.

259
00:19:26,022 --> 00:19:32,322
divestment is what was required. I was also very clear that we wanted to make sure that the

260
00:19:32,322 --> 00:19:37,662
Department of Justice was not the sole enforcer of violations, that we wanted to have the state

261
00:19:37,662 --> 00:19:42,562
attorneys, generals able to do that enforcement as well, if the Department of Justice, because

262
00:19:42,562 --> 00:19:47,582
we've seen they've become a complete joke, making sure they're so unserious, we wanted to make sure

263
00:19:47,582 --> 00:19:53,622
we had that additional protection. Sacrifice, I guess, the perfect for, I don't know, this is

264
00:19:53,622 --> 00:19:59,842
about Trump and we're not going to get a clarity act passed. The overall crypto, as important as

265
00:19:59,842 --> 00:20:06,362
it all is, you and Democrats are willing to hold it back to prove a point about Trump's corruption.

266
00:20:06,922 --> 00:20:14,282
That is what's happening. And I hope their plan is once they win the midterms to get around to

267
00:20:14,282 --> 00:20:20,842
turning this thing around and making it their bill, because otherwise they're blowing a massive,

268
00:20:20,842 --> 00:20:27,962
massive situation up over small ball politics and the massive situation that they're blowing up

269
00:20:27,962 --> 00:20:32,642
isn't consumer protection it isn't the anti-money laundering stuff that's all going to make it worse

270
00:20:32,642 --> 00:20:41,802
the treasury needs a domestic buyer for their debt badly very very badly and we have a bunch

271
00:20:41,802 --> 00:20:45,682
of dopes running the country that don't realize what they're what they're playing with here or if

272
00:20:45,682 --> 00:20:52,002
they do, they're just maniacs. So it's like, it's like, it's, it's like, it's either they,

273
00:20:52,502 --> 00:20:58,682
they, they want to hit, take a shot at Trump so bad that they're willing to risk the bond market,

274
00:20:59,462 --> 00:21:04,162
especially at a moment when we don't really have enough buyers. It's like clear that we don't have

275
00:21:04,162 --> 00:21:08,462
enough buyers and they're willing to, or they don't understand the situation and they don't

276
00:21:08,462 --> 00:21:11,902
understand what they're voting on. And I just don't know which one of those two things it is.

277
00:21:11,902 --> 00:21:13,862
and the things they do say about it,

278
00:21:14,182 --> 00:21:15,802
like the divest your stuff,

279
00:21:16,242 --> 00:21:17,182
well, the way it goes right now

280
00:21:17,182 --> 00:21:18,222
is he either has to divest

281
00:21:18,222 --> 00:21:19,362
or it goes into a trust,

282
00:21:19,662 --> 00:21:21,022
but the reality is he's made his money.

283
00:21:21,742 --> 00:21:23,782
The money he made was from a pump

284
00:21:23,782 --> 00:21:24,902
that no longer exists.

285
00:21:25,202 --> 00:21:26,002
He cashed out,

286
00:21:26,222 --> 00:21:27,562
and he made the bulk of the money

287
00:21:27,562 --> 00:21:28,642
from selling a company,

288
00:21:28,722 --> 00:21:29,742
not from selling the coin.

289
00:21:30,262 --> 00:21:31,742
He sold the stablecoin company,

290
00:21:32,442 --> 00:21:32,882
made him a ton.

291
00:21:32,942 --> 00:21:34,122
That's where he made the bulk of the money,

292
00:21:34,402 --> 00:21:35,542
was in selling a corporation.

293
00:21:36,302 --> 00:21:38,422
So this whole thing is just really, really weak,

294
00:21:38,442 --> 00:21:39,782
and what ends up happening now

295
00:21:39,782 --> 00:21:41,402
is there's no ethics provision.

296
00:21:41,902 --> 00:21:48,382
Right. There's no rules. And seemingly the genius, the genius act is now the law of the land.

297
00:21:48,682 --> 00:21:54,022
So the stable coin protections that the bank wanted for stable coin yields also don't exist now.

298
00:21:54,022 --> 00:21:59,202
So the banks don't get their protections and there's no ethics provisions at all as a result.

299
00:22:00,022 --> 00:22:07,102
So this is a really, really, really big blunder, but they'll be able to spin it as a fight against Trump that they want.

300
00:22:07,102 --> 00:22:08,482
and that's all that matters.

301
00:22:09,282 --> 00:22:12,782
But as if to toss a bone to a starving dog,

302
00:22:13,362 --> 00:22:16,502
House U.S. Chairman Fresh Hill, I think his name is.

303
00:22:17,042 --> 00:22:17,722
I'm sorry.

304
00:22:18,402 --> 00:22:21,122
I don't really follow their names too closely

305
00:22:21,122 --> 00:22:22,042
unless they end up making,

306
00:22:22,302 --> 00:22:23,362
unless they end up for some reason

307
00:22:23,362 --> 00:22:24,702
showing up in the show multiple times.

308
00:22:25,382 --> 00:22:27,482
But it's Congressman Hill, I think.

309
00:22:28,262 --> 00:22:29,562
He might be in the clip here.

310
00:22:29,662 --> 00:22:32,222
He's introducing the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill

311
00:22:32,222 --> 00:22:33,762
into Congress as of today,

312
00:22:34,322 --> 00:22:36,582
which to me looks like it's a bill

313
00:22:36,582 --> 00:22:40,602
to codify what Trump has done as an executive order around holding Bitcoin.

314
00:22:40,602 --> 00:22:48,562
We will also bring for consideration today H.R. 8957, the American Reserve Modernization

315
00:22:48,562 --> 00:22:54,122
Act of 2026, introduced by Congressman Begich from Alaska.

316
00:22:54,582 --> 00:23:01,242
This bill establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a separate digital asset stockpile

317
00:23:01,242 --> 00:23:08,222
within the Department of Treasury for federally held Bitcoin and other digital assets that the

318
00:23:08,222 --> 00:23:15,302
government has acquired through justice and law enforcement efforts of criminal or civil forfeiture.

319
00:23:15,842 --> 00:23:21,742
This is a common sense measure that brings digital assets held across a variety of federal agencies

320
00:23:21,742 --> 00:23:28,982
under the careful custody of the U.S. Treasury consistent with oversight, strengthening of the

321
00:23:28,982 --> 00:23:34,542
security, transparency, and accountability of these now government-held assets.

322
00:23:34,742 --> 00:23:36,742
It'd be interesting to see why this one wouldn't be able to pass.

323
00:23:36,962 --> 00:23:39,222
I mean, it's just really codifying something they're already doing.

324
00:23:39,542 --> 00:23:40,682
Okay, I got a question for you.

325
00:23:42,022 --> 00:23:47,522
Do you think we're done with the Clarity Act, or will it be back with a new name next year?

326
00:23:48,062 --> 00:23:49,502
Personally, I hope it's dead.

327
00:23:49,922 --> 00:23:50,522
I really do.

328
00:23:50,582 --> 00:23:51,382
I don't think we need it.

329
00:23:51,422 --> 00:23:51,842
Let it go.

330
00:23:51,842 --> 00:23:57,282
I liked the developer protections that were in there for some things, but I want to know

331
00:23:57,282 --> 00:23:57,922
what you think, though.

332
00:23:57,922 --> 00:24:00,342
do you think we'll get a little ninja return

333
00:24:00,342 --> 00:24:01,302
it'll have a new name

334
00:24:01,302 --> 00:24:03,242
and it'll be a Democrat bill

335
00:24:03,242 --> 00:24:06,242
I don't know, next year. Boost in and tell me what you think

336
00:24:06,242 --> 00:24:07,662
is going to happen with that

337
00:24:07,662 --> 00:24:09,542
just because I think the whole thing is

338
00:24:09,542 --> 00:24:12,022
it's some sort of game that we've all been getting strung along

339
00:24:12,022 --> 00:24:13,102
feels like that's what

340
00:24:13,102 --> 00:24:16,062
this whole thing, the whole last year

341
00:24:16,062 --> 00:24:18,022
was just all playing politics

342
00:24:18,022 --> 00:24:19,862
I don't want it

343
00:24:19,862 --> 00:24:20,762
tell me what you think

344
00:24:27,922 --> 00:24:39,862
Well, you can support the show by doing what you do.

345
00:24:39,942 --> 00:24:42,662
If you want to buy sats on River, use my link in the notes.

346
00:24:43,042 --> 00:24:46,502
The Bitcoin well, a great way to stack sats in the U.S. and Canada,

347
00:24:46,662 --> 00:24:48,362
and they don't hold the wallet, you do.

348
00:24:48,422 --> 00:24:50,662
It's a self-custody platform for you, not them.

349
00:24:51,122 --> 00:24:53,262
Then if it's time to sell, sell?

350
00:24:53,502 --> 00:24:54,942
Yeah, I guess you could consider that.

351
00:24:54,942 --> 00:25:01,662
If you want to get something with a gift card and you want to go sats to gift card, thebitcoincompany.com, link in the notes.

352
00:25:02,062 --> 00:25:03,262
Brand new look on their website.

353
00:25:03,402 --> 00:25:04,202
You can log in with lightning.

354
00:25:04,342 --> 00:25:05,802
You go sats to gift card in just seconds.

355
00:25:06,182 --> 00:25:08,502
I wanted to buy a bloomin' onion for the wife for her birthday.

356
00:25:08,602 --> 00:25:09,142
I went and looked it up.

357
00:25:09,402 --> 00:25:13,502
They got four different ways you can get a bloomin' onion with sats on the Bitcoin company.

358
00:25:13,902 --> 00:25:16,562
The fold card, you want to pay your bills and stack sats.

359
00:25:16,642 --> 00:25:17,462
You got to pay them anyways.

360
00:25:17,562 --> 00:25:18,282
Might as well stack sats.

361
00:25:18,362 --> 00:25:18,702
Fold card.

362
00:25:19,362 --> 00:25:20,622
Then salt lending, strike.

363
00:25:21,002 --> 00:25:24,702
Both of those great ways to get access to your Bitcoin without selling it via their lending options.

364
00:25:24,942 --> 00:25:31,022
links to that in the notes as well. No official relash, but if you use those links, supports me,

365
00:25:31,062 --> 00:25:35,262
and I've used those companies, and so far, so far, I haven't gotten rugged. So links to that

366
00:25:35,262 --> 00:25:48,962
in the show notes. Support the show by doing what you do. And now it is time for the boost.

367
00:25:49,002 --> 00:26:13,613
Let do some boost okay Let do some boost you guys That how the show keeps on going And it a value for value podcast I got no sponsor Came that close to having cold card be a sponsor And then I was like I don know about that My instincts like I don know about that value for value And then boom everything blew up So here we are We value for value ride or die as far as I can tell And right now we surviving And J helps us do it with 65 sets

368
00:26:13,613 --> 00:26:19,293
I hoard that which your kind covered. Boom. Thank you, J-Cube, for being our baller.

369
00:26:22,933 --> 00:26:26,233
Due to being in a hurry, I will opt out for the boosty boost.

370
00:26:26,333 --> 00:26:27,853
I will opt for a boosty boost.

371
00:26:27,973 --> 00:26:29,293
Oh, you're going to opt for it.

372
00:26:29,333 --> 00:26:30,413
I see how it is.

373
00:26:30,653 --> 00:26:35,953
You're going to opt for the most select, most prized boost sound effect.

374
00:26:36,013 --> 00:26:36,893
You're just going to opt for it.

375
00:26:36,913 --> 00:26:37,273
I see.

376
00:26:37,993 --> 00:26:39,513
Apologies for the lack of proper discourse.

377
00:26:39,613 --> 00:26:39,933
You know what?

378
00:26:40,353 --> 00:26:42,253
I'm going to give it to you, J-Cube, for being our baller.

379
00:26:42,993 --> 00:26:44,113
Boosty, boosty, boosty, boost.

380
00:26:44,173 --> 00:26:44,633
There you go.

381
00:26:44,753 --> 00:26:46,053
I'm going to give it to you for being the baller.

382
00:26:46,513 --> 00:26:46,993
Thank you, sir.

383
00:26:47,133 --> 00:26:47,733
Appreciate you.

384
00:26:48,913 --> 00:26:50,413
Thank you for being our baller booster.

385
00:26:51,033 --> 00:26:53,773
Just a HODL came in with 26,000 sets.

386
00:26:58,753 --> 00:27:03,153
Just a HODL writes, long-time listener, first-time booster, hope the sickness fades.

387
00:27:03,313 --> 00:27:03,653
Awesome.

388
00:27:03,773 --> 00:27:04,193
Make it show.

389
00:27:04,353 --> 00:27:05,473
Thank you for doing that.

390
00:27:05,573 --> 00:27:08,073
And I'm like 87%.

391
00:27:08,073 --> 00:27:09,273
Can you hear it a little bit?

392
00:27:10,553 --> 00:27:12,493
I'm like 87%.

393
00:27:12,493 --> 00:27:19,573
but it's like that last 10 to 15 percent that because I don't stop working I think will probably

394
00:27:19,573 --> 00:27:24,113
last three times three times longer than it should it's okay it only affects my ears and the way I

395
00:27:24,113 --> 00:27:29,713
sound and the taste of food but I'm all right thanks just I shouldn't complain I really am okay

396
00:27:29,713 --> 00:27:38,273
as my grandpa says I can't complain derivation dingus comes in with 23 924 satoshis oh my god

397
00:27:38,273 --> 00:27:39,713
This drawer is filled with fruit loads.

398
00:27:39,773 --> 00:27:42,373
I forgot to boost last week, but a couple of episodes ago,

399
00:27:42,433 --> 00:27:45,373
someone mentioned that a live ISO might not have enough entropy

400
00:27:45,373 --> 00:27:47,133
to safely create wallets.

401
00:27:47,473 --> 00:27:49,293
I researched this before building mine,

402
00:27:49,413 --> 00:27:52,193
and with a modern kernel, it's basically a non-issue.

403
00:27:52,613 --> 00:27:54,893
Using get random is recommended because it blocks

404
00:27:54,893 --> 00:27:55,953
until there is enough entropy.

405
00:27:56,253 --> 00:27:57,133
That's right.

406
00:27:57,673 --> 00:27:58,393
That's right.

407
00:27:59,013 --> 00:28:02,273
There are two ways to get random numbers via the Linux kernel,

408
00:28:02,273 --> 00:28:06,933
and one of them will block until it has sufficient entropy.

409
00:28:07,393 --> 00:28:08,233
That is true.

410
00:28:08,273 --> 00:28:10,693
So make sure you're using the get random function

411
00:28:10,693 --> 00:28:12,173
because it blocks until there's enough entropy

412
00:28:12,173 --> 00:28:14,393
and you configure the kernel to be even more conservative

413
00:28:14,393 --> 00:28:16,073
about what entropy sources it trusts

414
00:28:16,073 --> 00:28:17,333
to harden things further.

415
00:28:17,713 --> 00:28:18,493
Stay safe out there.

416
00:28:19,133 --> 00:28:20,073
That's a great boost.

417
00:28:20,633 --> 00:28:21,513
That's a great boost.

418
00:28:21,593 --> 00:28:22,293
Thank you very much.

419
00:28:22,993 --> 00:28:24,333
Appreciate that derivation.

420
00:28:24,833 --> 00:28:25,373
Good tips.

421
00:28:25,813 --> 00:28:27,873
And yeah, we did do a Linux Unplugged on that

422
00:28:27,873 --> 00:28:29,133
and that's a lesson learned.

423
00:28:29,773 --> 00:28:30,773
It used to not block.

424
00:28:31,193 --> 00:28:32,753
And so you could just get random numbers

425
00:28:32,753 --> 00:28:34,593
that were not sufficiently random back

426
00:28:34,593 --> 00:28:36,813
and applications would just continue right along.

427
00:28:38,273 --> 00:28:42,433
Love Down Babylon comes in with 21,337 Satoshis.

428
00:28:42,513 --> 00:28:44,293
You're doing very well.

429
00:28:44,413 --> 00:28:45,593
Hi, Sir Lurkslot here.

430
00:28:45,653 --> 00:28:46,293
Hello, Lurks.

431
00:28:46,393 --> 00:28:50,093
You, Adam Curry, and others inspired me to start my own podcast, Love Down Babylon.

432
00:28:50,553 --> 00:28:56,413
My first episode drops today via Fountain, a multifaceted show about personal healing,

433
00:28:56,573 --> 00:28:59,273
technology, inspiration, big ideas, and changing the world.

434
00:28:59,693 --> 00:29:03,093
By the way, 21337 is elite Satoshi boost.

435
00:29:03,513 --> 00:29:04,413
That is very, very true.

436
00:29:04,413 --> 00:29:07,293
Thank you for helping us help you help us all.

437
00:29:07,293 --> 00:29:10,313
and congratulations on getting the show launched

438
00:29:10,313 --> 00:29:11,953
A Love Down Babylon

439
00:29:11,953 --> 00:29:13,733
check it out on Fountain FM

440
00:29:13,733 --> 00:29:15,393
OB comes in

441
00:29:15,393 --> 00:29:16,373
and it's good to hear from you lurks

442
00:29:16,373 --> 00:29:18,773
OB comes in with 21,000 sats

443
00:29:18,773 --> 00:29:21,253
21 gigawatts

444
00:29:21,253 --> 00:29:22,193
sorry for your loss

445
00:29:22,193 --> 00:29:22,593
that sucks

446
00:29:22,593 --> 00:29:23,533
praying you'll get it back

447
00:29:23,533 --> 00:29:24,453
less is more

448
00:29:24,453 --> 00:29:25,473
recap Wednesday show

449
00:29:25,473 --> 00:29:26,913
is a great reference to emergency pods

450
00:29:26,913 --> 00:29:27,533
ah thank you

451
00:29:27,533 --> 00:29:29,073
yes still no movement

452
00:29:29,073 --> 00:29:30,853
on the peg out

453
00:29:30,853 --> 00:29:32,553
the liquid network is moving again

454
00:29:32,553 --> 00:29:33,973
but the peg outs have not been resumed

455
00:29:33,973 --> 00:29:36,873
let's hope the price doesn't crash in the meantime

456
00:29:36,873 --> 00:29:40,933
I'm barely going to get by with the skin of my teeth on this one.

457
00:29:41,013 --> 00:29:41,393
I think boys,

458
00:29:41,933 --> 00:29:42,953
thank you very much though.

459
00:29:43,093 --> 00:29:43,733
Thanks for thinking of me,

460
00:29:43,753 --> 00:29:47,973
OB Jean beans here with 9,444 Satoshis.

461
00:29:48,153 --> 00:29:50,053
It's over 9,000.

462
00:29:50,753 --> 00:29:51,653
Here's a get well soon.

463
00:29:51,733 --> 00:29:52,753
Sats combined with a few.

464
00:29:52,813 --> 00:29:54,093
How'd I forget to boost last week?

465
00:29:54,253 --> 00:29:55,733
Please do cover the liquid stuff.

466
00:29:56,093 --> 00:29:58,073
As for when an emergency podcast is warranted,

467
00:29:58,133 --> 00:30:00,193
my threshold would be when there's something actionable.

468
00:30:00,353 --> 00:30:01,213
That's what I was thinking,

469
00:30:01,333 --> 00:30:01,433
Jean,

470
00:30:01,573 --> 00:30:04,893
if there's nothing I need to actually do with the time sense and window,

471
00:30:05,073 --> 00:30:06,513
then it could just wait for the normal show.

472
00:30:06,873 --> 00:30:10,333
I'd also confine them to when not taking action is likely to have negative financial impact.

473
00:30:10,553 --> 00:30:10,673
Yeah.

474
00:30:11,333 --> 00:30:14,953
Raises a bunch of uncomfortable questions is code for I've never been a broken money.

475
00:30:15,073 --> 00:30:17,713
I've never read broken money and have no idea how this stuff really works.

476
00:30:19,173 --> 00:30:22,153
I forget who said that, but yeah, that does sound like the code for that.

477
00:30:22,573 --> 00:30:23,193
Thank you, Gene.

478
00:30:23,493 --> 00:30:24,373
Good to hear from you.

479
00:30:25,093 --> 00:30:27,893
Now, Strix is here with 15,000 sats.

480
00:30:32,273 --> 00:30:33,633
It says feel better, Chris.

481
00:30:33,773 --> 00:30:34,113
Thank you.

482
00:30:34,173 --> 00:30:36,173
I am feeling better-ish.

483
00:30:36,173 --> 00:30:37,073
I am feeling better-ish.

484
00:30:37,153 --> 00:30:37,413
Thank you.

485
00:30:38,073 --> 00:30:40,093
Phillip is back with 2,026 sats.

486
00:30:40,293 --> 00:30:42,053
This is a tasty burger.

487
00:30:42,273 --> 00:30:42,633
No mess.

488
00:30:42,653 --> 00:30:43,113
She's just value.

489
00:30:43,193 --> 00:30:43,713
Thank you, Phillipa.

490
00:30:43,713 --> 00:30:44,333
Good to hear from you.

491
00:30:44,473 --> 00:30:47,193
Nakamoto 6102 is here with 5,021 sats.

492
00:30:47,313 --> 00:30:49,513
Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days.

493
00:30:49,693 --> 00:30:50,533
Thank you for the value.

494
00:30:50,633 --> 00:30:54,433
No need for an emergency episode unless it's something immediately impacting my security of funds.

495
00:30:54,633 --> 00:30:55,853
Yeah, that makes sense.

496
00:30:55,893 --> 00:30:56,353
That makes sense.

497
00:30:56,573 --> 00:30:57,173
He's a good guy.

498
00:30:57,413 --> 00:30:58,393
He's a real good guy.

499
00:30:58,533 --> 00:30:59,193
No, he's a great guy.

500
00:30:59,333 --> 00:30:59,493
Yep.

501
00:30:59,593 --> 00:31:00,973
I agree with you on that.

502
00:31:01,493 --> 00:31:04,493
User 26 is here with 2,112 sats.

503
00:31:04,493 --> 00:31:12,773
axelrod snot boost your emergency broadcast regarding the cold card was spot on and

504
00:31:12,773 --> 00:31:16,793
appreciated but i don't know if your model would be and what the model should be but if there's

505
00:31:16,793 --> 00:31:20,873
value in a timely update from a sober voice like yours cheers thank you well there you go appreciate

506
00:31:20,873 --> 00:31:29,013
that ace akramans here with a row of ducks 2 222 sats the fed holds steady on interest rates no

507
00:31:29,013 --> 00:31:33,193
need for emergency pods. Just continue great reporting on After Effects. They did not.

508
00:31:34,033 --> 00:31:39,953
They did not. You know what, though? I kind of felt like they would. Although at 25 basis points,

509
00:31:40,873 --> 00:31:44,433
raise isn't going to mean much. If they keep doing it, though, that's another story.

510
00:31:44,913 --> 00:31:50,213
It does make everything a little bit harder for the White House and the situation with Iran.

511
00:31:50,653 --> 00:31:53,613
It does, I think, make the bond market feel a little bit better for a minute, though.

512
00:31:54,373 --> 00:31:54,933
I'm glad.

513
00:31:55,093 --> 00:31:56,173
Thank you, Ace.

514
00:31:56,293 --> 00:31:59,653
You get, Ace, you get credit for putting yourself out there.

515
00:32:00,073 --> 00:32:00,973
Great job, sir.

516
00:32:01,053 --> 00:32:02,073
Round of applause for you.

517
00:32:02,653 --> 00:32:03,173
Thank you.

518
00:32:03,693 --> 00:32:04,333
Thank you, Ace.

519
00:32:04,433 --> 00:32:04,953
Good to hear from you.

520
00:32:05,693 --> 00:32:08,113
Red Beard, Jake is here with a row of ducks.

521
00:32:09,173 --> 00:32:11,053
I got here from the Vance Crow podcast.

522
00:32:11,273 --> 00:32:12,353
Twib is no agenda for Bitcoin.

523
00:32:12,513 --> 00:32:12,713
Thanks.

524
00:32:12,813 --> 00:32:13,853
Wow, that's quite the compliment.

525
00:32:14,213 --> 00:32:15,033
Shout out to Vance.

526
00:32:15,033 --> 00:32:18,973
And I'll settle for being the best podcast in the solar system,

527
00:32:19,133 --> 00:32:20,033
if I can get away with that.

528
00:32:20,393 --> 00:32:20,953
Thank you, Red Beard.

529
00:32:21,673 --> 00:32:25,693
Cronk-a-donk the doggo comes in with 4,444 sats.

530
00:32:25,793 --> 00:32:27,953
Things are looking up for old McDuck.

531
00:32:28,193 --> 00:32:29,533
Thanks for fighting signal while you were sick.

532
00:32:29,573 --> 00:32:30,193
Appreciate you.

533
00:32:30,293 --> 00:32:30,973
Thank you.

534
00:32:32,433 --> 00:32:33,633
It does mean a lot.

535
00:32:34,213 --> 00:32:37,033
Magnolia Mayhem's here with 2,999 sats.

536
00:32:42,313 --> 00:32:43,773
This show has the best artwork.

537
00:32:43,893 --> 00:32:44,273
You think?

538
00:32:44,533 --> 00:32:45,133
Thank you, Mayhem.

539
00:32:45,933 --> 00:32:46,833
I appreciate that.

540
00:32:47,113 --> 00:32:47,413
Gosh.

541
00:32:48,073 --> 00:32:49,853
Derivation Dingus is here with a row of ducks.

542
00:32:50,953 --> 00:32:52,393
Almost forgot to make a prediction.

543
00:32:52,593 --> 00:32:53,453
I think the Fed holds.

544
00:32:53,693 --> 00:32:56,393
Oh, man, another one.

545
00:32:56,453 --> 00:32:56,813
Me too.

546
00:32:57,833 --> 00:32:59,553
Ah, man.

547
00:32:59,653 --> 00:33:01,093
Bring up the holy hand grenade.

548
00:33:01,653 --> 00:33:03,293
I think we all got that one wrong.

549
00:33:03,413 --> 00:33:07,833
I mean, I started, to be fair, I did, and I wonder if this is true for some of you too.

550
00:33:08,333 --> 00:33:12,033
I started changing my probability probably about Monday.

551
00:33:12,753 --> 00:33:16,493
Especially as the situation started getting worse with energy and the bond market.

552
00:33:16,493 --> 00:33:17,633
I'm like, okay, well.

553
00:33:17,633 --> 00:33:22,573
So now the market, see, what happened is the market kind of forced his hand a little bit.

554
00:33:23,273 --> 00:33:25,993
The market sort of is like, if you don't do this, we don't think you're legitimate.

555
00:33:26,553 --> 00:33:30,033
And so if he didn't do it, it would have been a disaster for them.

556
00:33:30,713 --> 00:33:37,293
I mean, I'm not here to sit here and play Fed Whisper, but that is a fascinating, he really had no choice.

557
00:33:38,153 --> 00:33:38,813
It's crazy.

558
00:33:39,273 --> 00:33:44,593
I just don't, like, but my meta takeaway from all of it is I cannot believe we are subject to the system.

559
00:33:46,393 --> 00:33:47,313
Thank you, derivation.

560
00:33:47,633 --> 00:33:49,413
Orange Mart's here with 5,000 sets.

561
00:33:49,553 --> 00:33:50,873
The traders love the vol.

562
00:33:51,113 --> 00:33:52,013
No message, just value.

563
00:33:52,113 --> 00:33:52,873
Thank you very much.

564
00:33:53,293 --> 00:33:56,313
Read BTC's back with 2,142 satoshis.

565
00:33:56,693 --> 00:33:57,773
Use a boost.

566
00:33:58,053 --> 00:33:59,453
Excellent fiat system weather report.

567
00:33:59,613 --> 00:34:02,333
I pay attention to the legacy financial system like I pay attention to the weather.

568
00:34:02,453 --> 00:34:05,553
It doesn't change anything long term, but it's nice to know when a storm is coming.

569
00:34:06,193 --> 00:34:07,633
That's a good way to think about it.

570
00:34:08,273 --> 00:34:08,473
Yeah.

571
00:34:09,133 --> 00:34:09,293
Yeah.

572
00:34:09,413 --> 00:34:11,973
And again, like Bitcoin is your crop, right?

573
00:34:11,993 --> 00:34:12,633
It's your harvest.

574
00:34:12,773 --> 00:34:14,713
And you want to protect your crop and your harvest.

575
00:34:14,713 --> 00:34:17,733
and you want to know when it's the right time to buy more or not,

576
00:34:18,233 --> 00:34:20,493
especially if you take any kind of leverage, any kind of loan.

577
00:34:20,913 --> 00:34:22,653
Nice one, Reed. I like that.

578
00:34:22,653 --> 00:34:24,793
You make me want to be a better man.

579
00:34:25,213 --> 00:34:26,873
Ripcord's here with 2,000 stats.

580
00:34:27,133 --> 00:34:28,193
Everything's under control.

581
00:34:28,373 --> 00:34:30,833
Keep up the great work. Thank you, Ripcord. Appreciate the boost.

582
00:34:31,913 --> 00:34:34,913
Sleeks, sleek stats, dang it.

583
00:34:35,353 --> 00:34:36,893
Every time, every time.

584
00:34:37,257 --> 00:34:38,557
Every time.

585
00:34:38,957 --> 00:34:41,197
Comes in with 9,999 sats.

586
00:34:44,297 --> 00:34:46,217
I have to disagree with Lynn Alden's

587
00:34:46,217 --> 00:34:47,397
nothing stops his train thesis.

588
00:34:47,557 --> 00:34:48,757
Clown car feels more accurate.

589
00:34:48,877 --> 00:34:50,357
Nothing stops the clown car, huh?

590
00:34:50,937 --> 00:34:52,637
Yeah, the reason why she goes with the train,

591
00:34:52,717 --> 00:34:54,817
I think, is just because the size and weight of it,

592
00:34:54,857 --> 00:34:55,117
you know?

593
00:34:55,477 --> 00:34:57,317
And everybody knows what a train wreck looks like.

594
00:34:57,737 --> 00:34:58,317
Thanks, Lise.

595
00:34:58,497 --> 00:35:01,857
Appreciate you sticking out my horrible butchering

596
00:35:01,857 --> 00:35:03,377
of your username.

597
00:35:04,117 --> 00:35:07,837
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 5,432 Satoshis.

598
00:35:08,057 --> 00:35:09,437
But that's not possible.

599
00:35:09,577 --> 00:35:10,597
Nothing can do that.

600
00:35:10,777 --> 00:35:11,797
Hey, Chris, I love the thumbnails.

601
00:35:11,937 --> 00:35:13,357
A little hidden Easter egg in each episode.

602
00:35:13,457 --> 00:35:13,917
Nice touch.

603
00:35:14,037 --> 00:35:16,737
What tool are you using to make them?

604
00:35:17,377 --> 00:35:21,177
So it's sort of like a process of elimination, right?

605
00:35:21,857 --> 00:35:23,577
Because as I'm working on the show,

606
00:35:23,577 --> 00:35:26,197
I have an agent called Number One,

607
00:35:26,297 --> 00:35:28,097
and she's dedicated to helping me produce the show.

608
00:35:28,717 --> 00:35:31,637
And I'll iterate on the ideas,

609
00:35:31,737 --> 00:35:32,857
because as I'm working through the show,

610
00:35:32,857 --> 00:35:36,797
I'm always kind of working through the thread and sort of the macro theme.

611
00:35:36,877 --> 00:35:42,197
It kind of like, you know, I'm building pictures throughout the week of that mentally and then trying to translate that into a picture.

612
00:35:42,297 --> 00:35:44,637
And so I'll come up with like a couple of themes and ideas.

613
00:35:44,897 --> 00:35:50,217
And then the machine can send that off to a couple of like the one I'll go through first because it's cheapest is Minimax.

614
00:35:50,677 --> 00:35:52,317
And I can kind of get most of the way there.

615
00:35:52,437 --> 00:35:57,077
And then if Minimax doesn't get me there, usually like a chat GPT will do it.

616
00:35:57,397 --> 00:36:01,237
They have they've just recently improved their image generation or like do a pass on it.

617
00:36:01,237 --> 00:36:02,817
It sort of bounces it back and forth.

618
00:36:02,857 --> 00:36:28,037
The real true answer is there is not one path. Every week I'd say it changes and my options change. So it's kind of like rolling, just rolling with the punches on it. But I've been having fun with it because I'm generating the artwork from sort of the same threads. I'm iterating on the ideas. And what my agent does is like, I'll be like, it's the agent assumes I'm wrong about everything.

619
00:36:28,037 --> 00:36:30,957
numbers, names, dates, amounts,

620
00:36:31,517 --> 00:36:33,777
if a thing actually happened or not.

621
00:36:34,097 --> 00:36:35,217
So I'll be like, you know,

622
00:36:35,237 --> 00:36:36,517
the Fed's raising rates this week

623
00:36:36,517 --> 00:36:38,177
and the agent has to then go fact check that.

624
00:36:38,357 --> 00:36:39,557
Yeah, okay, yep, yep, I see.

625
00:36:39,617 --> 00:36:40,477
This is actually supported.

626
00:36:40,897 --> 00:36:43,137
So as we sort of, we work together to develop that out,

627
00:36:43,557 --> 00:36:45,077
that ends up feeding into the artwork.

628
00:36:45,537 --> 00:36:47,977
So it kind of comes directly from the DNA.

629
00:36:48,657 --> 00:36:49,877
It's in its DNA.

630
00:36:50,257 --> 00:36:52,177
So I hope that answers your question, Kiwi.

631
00:36:52,637 --> 00:36:56,737
Texans here with 2,112 Satoshis.

632
00:36:58,037 --> 00:36:59,677
No message, just value.

633
00:36:59,837 --> 00:37:00,497
Thank you very much.

634
00:37:00,817 --> 00:37:01,457
Appreciate that.

635
00:37:02,077 --> 00:37:04,497
BTC Needless here with 2,100 sats.

636
00:37:04,817 --> 00:37:06,117
I wonder if I got that right.

637
00:37:06,497 --> 00:37:09,017
I don't know about that, but I like it.

638
00:37:11,217 --> 00:37:12,257
Okay, here we go.

639
00:37:12,257 --> 00:37:17,837
So, Madu Cafe at 5805 York Boulevard in Highland Park, Los Angeles,

640
00:37:17,977 --> 00:37:20,657
is accepting Bitcoin payments via the Square POS terminal.

641
00:37:21,377 --> 00:37:22,377
A cafe, huh?

642
00:37:22,777 --> 00:37:23,577
In Los Angeles.

643
00:37:23,717 --> 00:37:24,117
Love it.

644
00:37:24,437 --> 00:37:25,717
We should get more reports like this.

645
00:37:25,717 --> 00:37:31,477
If I'm ever in the area, I will go there and I will buy something with some sets.

646
00:37:31,837 --> 00:37:32,797
Thank you, BTC Nealit.

647
00:37:32,937 --> 00:37:33,677
Nice to hear from you.

648
00:37:34,477 --> 00:37:37,917
Obliterator 918 sent in $25 of fiat.

649
00:37:38,077 --> 00:37:40,597
I hoard that which your kind coven.

650
00:37:40,817 --> 00:37:41,537
Not too bad at all.

651
00:37:41,677 --> 00:37:49,257
With all the self-custody entropy and sidechain chaos going on lately, I'd like to remind everyone that Satoshi's original stack still sits.

652
00:37:49,257 --> 00:37:54,097
with a simple SIG P2PK with raw public keys visible to all

653
00:37:54,097 --> 00:37:56,237
and hasn't budged besides a few cents to hell.

654
00:37:56,817 --> 00:37:57,717
Bitcoin's fine.

655
00:37:58,277 --> 00:37:59,557
Boosty McBoostersome.

656
00:37:59,897 --> 00:38:00,417
Boost!

657
00:38:01,417 --> 00:38:04,857
I love that common sense right there coming in.

658
00:38:04,917 --> 00:38:05,357
Thanks, Dad.

659
00:38:07,537 --> 00:38:08,497
Thank you, Imliterator.

660
00:38:08,857 --> 00:38:10,037
We got a free members boost.

661
00:38:10,157 --> 00:38:11,417
Yes, if you're a Jupiter Party member,

662
00:38:11,517 --> 00:38:13,957
you can boost an episode per episode once for free.

663
00:38:14,537 --> 00:38:17,537
Adversary 17 boosted, I think, a good threshold

664
00:38:17,537 --> 00:38:19,197
for an emergency episode

665
00:38:19,197 --> 00:38:21,577
is if there's any user action required

666
00:38:21,577 --> 00:38:22,577
and if it's a critical issue.

667
00:38:22,717 --> 00:38:24,077
Like for the cold card vulnerability,

668
00:38:24,237 --> 00:38:25,017
action was required.

669
00:38:25,137 --> 00:38:26,017
Emergency episode required.

670
00:38:26,317 --> 00:38:26,977
For the Liquid hack,

671
00:38:27,037 --> 00:38:28,277
there was nothing we could do as users.

672
00:38:28,557 --> 00:38:29,737
No emergency episode required.

673
00:38:30,117 --> 00:38:30,977
I agree.

674
00:38:31,137 --> 00:38:32,857
I think the one thing

675
00:38:32,857 --> 00:38:33,897
that I was thinking about the Liquid

676
00:38:33,897 --> 00:38:36,377
is if you had a significant amount

677
00:38:36,377 --> 00:38:37,137
of funds in there,

678
00:38:37,197 --> 00:38:38,377
you might like to at least know

679
00:38:38,377 --> 00:38:39,317
what's going on.

680
00:38:40,037 --> 00:38:42,117
But the benefit of waiting

681
00:38:42,117 --> 00:38:43,157
until the scheduled episode

682
00:38:43,157 --> 00:38:44,637
was I had a couple of days

683
00:38:44,637 --> 00:38:46,137
to collect more information.

684
00:38:46,137 --> 00:38:49,377
And so that was because you couldn't take immediate action.

685
00:38:49,577 --> 00:38:52,497
I decided to instead to wait to give you more information.

686
00:38:52,837 --> 00:38:55,277
And so I think that's, yeah, I think that's a good landing spot.

687
00:38:55,357 --> 00:38:55,917
Thank you, everybody.

688
00:38:56,497 --> 00:38:57,977
I appreciate the feedback and I like it.

689
00:38:58,037 --> 00:38:59,437
We're on a lot.

690
00:38:59,817 --> 00:39:01,497
Appreciate that members boost, too.

691
00:39:01,957 --> 00:39:02,217
All right.

692
00:39:02,237 --> 00:39:04,057
Let's break it all down.

693
00:39:04,157 --> 00:39:05,317
Let's summarize it up.

694
00:39:05,897 --> 00:39:06,177
Let's see.

695
00:39:06,197 --> 00:39:11,077
We had 23 of you stream sats as you listen to the podcast and collectively you all stream

696
00:39:11,077 --> 00:39:13,357
39,070 sats.

697
00:39:13,477 --> 00:39:15,117
You're doing very well.

698
00:39:15,117 --> 00:39:15,597
Not bad.

699
00:39:15,597 --> 00:39:16,337
Thank you very much.

700
00:39:16,357 --> 00:39:20,177
When you bring it all together, you take our fiat boost and you convert it to current market

701
00:39:20,177 --> 00:39:20,637
sat rates.

702
00:39:20,737 --> 00:39:24,737
That brings our total this episode to three hundred and thirty two thousand five hundred

703
00:39:24,737 --> 00:39:25,717
and twenty five.

704
00:39:25,977 --> 00:39:28,817
That to me feels like we're getting pretty close to a pretty good amount.

705
00:39:28,957 --> 00:39:33,777
If you break it down to an hourly rate, figure this episode probably took me about twelve

706
00:39:33,777 --> 00:39:36,117
ish hours on the median.

707
00:39:36,717 --> 00:39:38,217
Maybe more, maybe less, probably more.

708
00:39:38,557 --> 00:39:42,697
It's it's sort of like where I figure like, OK, you know, current means not living on

709
00:39:42,697 --> 00:39:43,637
that, but future me might.

710
00:39:43,737 --> 00:39:44,997
So I appreciate that amount right there.

711
00:39:44,997 --> 00:39:46,877
That's kind of where I break it down in my head.

712
00:39:47,197 --> 00:39:51,517
And I really do appreciate the support because this show really, I want, I want the show

713
00:39:51,517 --> 00:39:55,417
to be able to go for as long as we possibly can and document this journey that we are

714
00:39:55,417 --> 00:39:55,597
on.

715
00:39:55,677 --> 00:40:01,377
And it's going to take, it's going to take just a putting your head down to the grindstone

716
00:40:01,377 --> 00:40:05,737
and pushing forward both for me and from you as an audience, as we learn and just things

717
00:40:05,737 --> 00:40:09,817
continue to develop, especially with the midterms coming up, going into the end of the year.

718
00:40:09,857 --> 00:40:14,277
And then who really knows what next year looks like, but it feels like the possibilities for

719
00:40:14,277 --> 00:40:20,217
Bitcoin over there in 2027, both good and bad are absolutely endless. So my goal is to keep the show

720
00:40:20,217 --> 00:40:25,797
going. I do need your support for that. Boost.JupiterBroadcasting.com is one way to do just a

721
00:40:25,797 --> 00:40:30,177
one-off contribution. I like that because not only does it get a message on the show if it's

722
00:40:30,177 --> 00:40:35,697
above 2,000 sats, but it also is a signal. It's a signal that I can use later on. It's a signal I

723
00:40:35,697 --> 00:40:40,117
can use during the week. It's something I do look at to decide what episodes perform the best as far

724
00:40:40,117 --> 00:40:43,277
as the audience is concerned and all of that. And it's something that matters more to me than

725
00:40:43,277 --> 00:40:47,337
downloads or something like that. Memberships are also a great way to just put your support on

726
00:40:47,337 --> 00:40:51,897
autopilot, jupiter.party for the membership for all the shows, or there is a membership option

727
00:40:51,897 --> 00:40:57,757
just for this show in Fountain FM. Thank you, everybody who supports the pod, I guess. I don't

728
00:40:57,757 --> 00:41:05,477
usually say that. The podcast. You're doing very well. No, no, but I do really do sincerely

729
00:41:05,477 --> 00:41:10,637
appreciate it, and I hope we just keep on going. And wouldn't it be great if here we are in a year

730
00:41:10,637 --> 00:41:16,217
So looking back at things like these rate hikes and go, remember how we all thought that was going to be such a big deal.

731
00:41:16,537 --> 00:41:17,837
Let me tell you why it wasn't.

732
00:41:18,617 --> 00:41:23,177
In the meantime, though, I do think there's something that's kind of a big deal that we should talk about.

733
00:41:23,177 --> 00:41:41,337
I think I was early in the community to say the AI pump is directly tied to the market liquidity that Bitcoin needs to be successful.

734
00:41:41,897 --> 00:41:45,257
The U.S. economy needed the AI pump.

735
00:41:45,317 --> 00:41:49,417
And anybody who was watching the way this thing played out originally saw where this is going.

736
00:41:49,417 --> 00:41:56,117
the big tech companies have been responsible for the market pumps for the last few and this was

737
00:41:56,117 --> 00:42:02,577
their latest and biggest pump and the economy needed it more than ever and the total near

738
00:42:02,577 --> 00:42:12,993
focus that the economy took for a while and ai has meant that not only do we have this massive liquidity black hole that we have built up but it responsible for a considerable portion of

739
00:42:12,993 --> 00:42:20,953
GDP growth in the country. So what happens when the AI pump starts to be sabotaged from within?

740
00:42:21,333 --> 00:42:26,393
Let's begin this hour with a new demand to slow the growth of artificial intelligence from the

741
00:42:26,393 --> 00:42:32,093
top ranks of the AI industry. Anthropic CEO Dario Amadei says one of his biggest concerns is

742
00:42:32,093 --> 00:42:38,853
AI's ability to improve itself and build its own next versions. He says, if left unchecked,

743
00:42:38,913 --> 00:42:43,913
AI could, quote, outrun our ability to understand and control these systems. Other industry leaders,

744
00:42:43,913 --> 00:42:48,193
such as Sam Altman and Elon Musk, agree with him. In an interview with Jolene Kent for CBS

745
00:42:48,193 --> 00:42:53,093
Sunday Morning, Amadei admitted the industry has not always told the truth about the dangers of AI.

746
00:42:53,273 --> 00:42:57,953
Listen. This has been an interesting little back and forth because a couple of months ago,

747
00:42:57,953 --> 00:43:03,373
the narrative was the industry has been too negative. Dario has been too negative. He's

748
00:43:03,373 --> 00:43:08,373
freaked everybody out. We need to reverse messaging. And you saw even Sam Altman kind of

749
00:43:08,373 --> 00:43:12,533
walk it back a little bit and say, yeah, we were probably too pessimistic. Now I'm kind of thinking

750
00:43:12,533 --> 00:43:18,053
it's going to be an air of abundance. That was just a couple of weeks ago. Now we're back to,

751
00:43:18,053 --> 00:43:21,533
we haven't been telling you enough how it's going to kill everyone.

752
00:43:22,133 --> 00:43:25,553
Industry has not always told the truth about the dangers of AI. Listen,

753
00:43:25,553 --> 00:43:46,173
In terms of the dangers of the technology, I won't lie to you, there are real dangers. And I think for too long, the industry lied to people about the fact that this technology had risk. The idea was that they would present it as positive as possible. We've never done that. But too much of the industry did that.

754
00:43:46,173 --> 00:44:00,193
Nothing is new here. Nothing, which is why it's not really moving the market. And what's silly, the narrative around the whistleblower had to leave to get the message out there that then the CEO is willing to go on every single morning program and say exactly what the whistleblower said.

755
00:44:01,113 --> 00:44:04,353
And so it starts with telling the truth.

756
00:44:04,893 --> 00:44:05,013
Yeah.

757
00:44:05,393 --> 00:44:12,533
So what could an AI slowdown mean for the economy and the markets? CBS News business analyst Jill Schlesinger is here. Good morning.

758
00:44:12,713 --> 00:44:13,093
Good morning.

759
00:44:13,093 --> 00:44:19,993
All right. So what impact has AI had on the economy up until now? And how could that change if these leaders decide to slow the development?

760
00:44:20,333 --> 00:44:24,893
I think that it is pretty stunning to hear a leader say like, oh, my God, we've been lying to you.

761
00:44:24,993 --> 00:44:28,333
And so but trust me now. So I think there's a little dubious part of this.

762
00:44:28,473 --> 00:44:31,433
But when you look at AI growth, there's sort of two parts of it.

763
00:44:31,433 --> 00:44:36,273
One is the buying of the AI services and the other is a build out of these big data centers.

764
00:44:36,273 --> 00:44:43,553
And according to economists, this has accounted for about a third to a half of U.S. growth last year, this year, going into next year.

765
00:44:43,673 --> 00:44:47,693
So if that is going to be pulled back, we could see growth slow down.

766
00:44:48,353 --> 00:44:49,813
Yeah. Yeah, you could.

767
00:44:50,253 --> 00:44:55,633
If it's nearly responsible for half of GDP growth, yeah, you're going to see growth slow down.

768
00:44:56,173 --> 00:45:01,373
And riding on that AI pump has been that annoying debt to GDP ratio.

769
00:45:01,733 --> 00:45:04,033
The better the GDP, the better the ratio.

770
00:45:04,653 --> 00:45:07,373
The worse the GDP, the worse the ratio.

771
00:45:08,053 --> 00:45:11,713
And the worse that plan to grow our way out of that debt goes.

772
00:45:12,093 --> 00:45:16,353
If the AI pump slows down, there's no growing out of that debt.

773
00:45:16,653 --> 00:45:18,973
Not to mention the investors that get rugged.

774
00:45:19,653 --> 00:45:24,793
Just three months ago, there was talk about them being $5 trillion companies when SpaceX

775
00:45:24,793 --> 00:45:25,873
was trying to IPO.

776
00:45:26,433 --> 00:45:28,593
Now we're talking about slowing things down.

777
00:45:28,713 --> 00:45:31,733
Well, slowing things down also probably means less profits.

778
00:45:31,933 --> 00:45:32,273
Well, maybe.

779
00:45:32,973 --> 00:45:34,773
It could actually mean some rent seeking as well.

780
00:45:35,393 --> 00:45:36,953
It seems like a long shot to me,

781
00:45:37,293 --> 00:45:41,813
but all of this would likely slow down investment.

782
00:45:42,793 --> 00:45:44,173
Well, it's not a long shot.

783
00:45:44,333 --> 00:45:45,833
It's a real possibility at this moment.

784
00:45:46,033 --> 00:45:49,433
It seems like a real possibility that all of this could slow down

785
00:45:49,433 --> 00:45:54,273
investments that would result in an overall economy slowdown,

786
00:45:54,273 --> 00:45:58,033
and if nothing else, a slowdown in the IPOs big and small.

787
00:45:58,433 --> 00:46:00,513
What we heard over the weekend from Anthropics CEO

788
00:46:00,513 --> 00:46:05,933
and how others have responded. Leslie Picker has a look at how these safety concerns are impacting

789
00:46:05,933 --> 00:46:09,733
the AI IPO pipeline. But we'll start with you, Kate. Good morning.

790
00:46:10,293 --> 00:46:15,553
Hey, Carl. Good morning. So Anthropics CEO Dario Amadei shocked the tech world with this essay.

791
00:46:15,553 --> 00:46:21,273
On Saturday, the CEO proposed a three-step plan aimed at really tempering how fast the most

792
00:46:21,273 --> 00:46:26,533
powerful AI models are going to be improving. It does include a situation where you'd have

793
00:46:26,533 --> 00:46:30,793
third-party evaluators. He talks about safety standards and then international coordination

794
00:46:30,793 --> 00:46:36,093
as part of this. Amadei has argued for safety in the past, but all of this is taking on a new

795
00:46:36,093 --> 00:46:41,193
urgency. He talks about that urgency given some of the recent panic around the risk of this

796
00:46:41,193 --> 00:46:46,273
technology. It all snowballed last week. We talked a lot about this after anthropic researchers

797
00:46:46,273 --> 00:46:52,113
tweeted about the existential risk and then talked about AI labs, quote, gambling with our lives.

798
00:46:52,113 --> 00:46:57,733
the two new concerns that Amadei flags. He talks about AI developing a lot faster than expected.

799
00:46:57,933 --> 00:47:03,573
And then examples and one example in particular of OpenAI agents hacking into the startup Hugging

800
00:47:03,573 --> 00:47:09,893
Face. He called those AI agents a fanatically devoted collective. I'm not sure why he's choosing

801
00:47:09,893 --> 00:47:15,913
to use language like that. The Hugging Face breach shows us a couple of things. It shows us that OpenAI

802
00:47:15,913 --> 00:47:20,833
didn't have proper network isolation. They were using a proxy. They weren't using a proxy. They

803
00:47:20,833 --> 00:47:25,653
weren't using a proper sandbox. And the quote-unquote sandbox they did have had a proxy that had an

804
00:47:25,653 --> 00:47:32,773
internet connection. Number two, Hugging Face has a massive security problem because the way that

805
00:47:32,773 --> 00:47:38,473
Hugging Face was accessed was these agents found public API keys and accessed Hugging Face using

806
00:47:38,473 --> 00:47:46,293
valid API credentials. So this wasn't like some sort of cyber swarm that was manipulating its way

807
00:47:46,293 --> 00:47:48,333
into hacking Hugging Face's infrastructure

808
00:47:48,333 --> 00:47:51,373
so much as it found legitimate API keys

809
00:47:51,373 --> 00:47:52,533
and then it used the API.

810
00:47:53,633 --> 00:47:54,493
Dario knows that.

811
00:47:55,093 --> 00:47:56,953
Dario understands how this technology works.

812
00:47:57,513 --> 00:47:59,113
He's choosing to use language

813
00:47:59,113 --> 00:48:00,553
that makes it sound scarier.

814
00:48:01,113 --> 00:48:03,773
He's choosing to use language that demonizes it.

815
00:48:04,553 --> 00:48:05,993
And if you want my take,

816
00:48:06,753 --> 00:48:08,933
all of this is getting a little hysterical.

817
00:48:08,933 --> 00:48:11,093
It's getting a little like COVID again,

818
00:48:11,313 --> 00:48:14,073
where there is these experts that are coming out

819
00:48:14,073 --> 00:48:16,693
that is freaking certain people out.

820
00:48:16,773 --> 00:48:18,413
And you're seeing certain political leaders

821
00:48:18,413 --> 00:48:19,453
take advantage of that,

822
00:48:19,533 --> 00:48:20,853
especially around elections,

823
00:48:20,853 --> 00:48:23,573
to really spin everyone up.

824
00:48:24,393 --> 00:48:26,613
And Fox Business has their

825
00:48:26,613 --> 00:48:28,553
Making Money program with Charles on it.

826
00:48:28,893 --> 00:48:30,453
He points out that we're kind of seeing

827
00:48:30,453 --> 00:48:32,493
another boom around the AI boom,

828
00:48:32,853 --> 00:48:34,473
an AI adjacent boom,

829
00:48:34,633 --> 00:48:37,313
which is a network of people and companies

830
00:48:37,313 --> 00:48:39,833
that are making money off of AI doomerism,

831
00:48:40,233 --> 00:48:42,633
some of whom have direct financial ties

832
00:48:42,633 --> 00:48:43,373
to Anthropic.

833
00:48:43,373 --> 00:48:47,433
money. All right. So an interesting session, right? Of course, I'm going to give you my take

834
00:48:47,433 --> 00:48:52,533
on a few things, but the AI boom, a doomsday boom, I should say. It continues. It's actually

835
00:48:52,533 --> 00:48:58,593
shifting into a sort of overdrive here, media overdrive, stoking the fears, of course. Here's

836
00:48:58,593 --> 00:49:03,953
your latest cover, Time Magazine. Here's what's interesting about this. So they put the, by some

837
00:49:03,953 --> 00:49:09,113
of the writers down here, two of these writers are associated with Tarbell Center. You're not

838
00:49:09,113 --> 00:49:14,813
familiar with it, it's an AI doom organization. It's controlled by Dustin Moskovich. Okay, who is

839
00:49:14,813 --> 00:49:20,993
he? A major investor in Anthropic. He was a major donor to Kamala Harris. Are you connecting these

840
00:49:20,993 --> 00:49:26,893
dots, folks? In fact, in the past year, Tarbell bylines have appeared five times in time, not

841
00:49:26,893 --> 00:49:31,933
counting this cover, and that was 19% of the AI story. So automatically, it's going to come from

842
00:49:31,933 --> 00:49:46,089
this AI doom point of view They also got a position 33 of the dispatches AI stories 26 of the lawfare stories It only underscores that this is very much a political campaign as much as anything else

843
00:49:46,189 --> 00:49:53,249
Now, to be sure, investors have always fretted about the downside, and investors have always worried about their creation.

844
00:49:53,389 --> 00:49:54,609
We'll get to the downsides.

845
00:49:54,729 --> 00:49:59,689
I'd like to know, who do you think is benefiting from AI doomerism like this?

846
00:49:59,689 --> 00:50:02,669
who benefits from screwing up the economy,

847
00:50:03,549 --> 00:50:05,449
screwing up a pump, and screwing up jobs.

848
00:50:06,149 --> 00:50:08,329
And, you know, here's my take on the AI thing.

849
00:50:09,009 --> 00:50:12,869
I think AI is like a great tool.

850
00:50:13,029 --> 00:50:14,849
I think it's a fantastic accelerator.

851
00:50:15,029 --> 00:50:17,429
Steve Jobs called the computer a bicycle for the mind.

852
00:50:17,509 --> 00:50:20,049
I think AI is a motorcycle for the mind.

853
00:50:20,489 --> 00:50:22,349
It's an incredible force multiplier.

854
00:50:22,969 --> 00:50:24,529
And I'm all for it,

855
00:50:24,529 --> 00:50:26,989
especially local open source AI.

856
00:50:27,209 --> 00:50:29,569
I am so excited about the possibilities there.

857
00:50:29,689 --> 00:50:33,109
And I think we're really just at the starting line.

858
00:50:33,649 --> 00:50:37,749
I think in years we'll look back and we'll think it was quaint that we used so much markdown

859
00:50:37,749 --> 00:50:41,989
and that we didn't use like something more structured and more token efficient for these

860
00:50:41,989 --> 00:50:44,909
machines, something built for these machines and all these kinds of little things that

861
00:50:44,909 --> 00:50:46,629
we don't even think about now.

862
00:50:47,129 --> 00:50:49,409
We're just beginning to figure out some of that workflow.

863
00:50:49,989 --> 00:50:53,369
And the open source models are just getting better and better.

864
00:50:54,729 --> 00:50:59,289
I've been listening to people say they've canceled their OpenAI and Cloud subscriptions

865
00:50:59,289 --> 00:51:02,569
and they just pay for DeepSea version 4 Flash

866
00:51:02,569 --> 00:51:04,109
as they need it on demand.

867
00:51:04,549 --> 00:51:07,349
And it's like 2% of the cost, so why not?

868
00:51:08,229 --> 00:51:12,329
So I think the models as a $5 trillion business

869
00:51:12,329 --> 00:51:14,489
were never going to be very viable.

870
00:51:14,929 --> 00:51:18,229
And I think Dario's never run a company before.

871
00:51:18,569 --> 00:51:20,349
This is his first time as a CEO,

872
00:51:20,669 --> 00:51:23,409
and now he has this trillion-dollar company,

873
00:51:23,509 --> 00:51:25,729
this $2 trillion company he's responsible for.

874
00:51:26,269 --> 00:51:28,649
Sam Altman's been the CEO of one other company

875
00:51:28,649 --> 00:51:31,449
that was essentially just soaking VC funds

876
00:51:31,449 --> 00:51:32,889
and never really intended to be successful.

877
00:51:33,289 --> 00:51:35,769
And now he's running a trillion dollar company.

878
00:51:36,229 --> 00:51:40,209
And I think they're freaking out that they sold this thing

879
00:51:40,209 --> 00:51:42,109
and it's not something that's actually capable

880
00:51:42,109 --> 00:51:43,429
of what they have sold it.

881
00:51:43,729 --> 00:51:48,009
Not, it is, it's not a matter of capabilities tech-wise,

882
00:51:48,069 --> 00:51:51,289
it's a matter of capabilities profit-wise, money-wise,

883
00:51:51,389 --> 00:51:54,129
because the model is getting commoditized by China,

884
00:51:54,389 --> 00:51:55,409
by open source models.

885
00:51:55,489 --> 00:51:56,609
It'll be by NVIDIA.

886
00:51:56,609 --> 00:52:01,009
I mean, all of this is happening just a week after the NVIDIA Hugging Face announcement,

887
00:52:01,529 --> 00:52:03,369
where NVIDIA went all in on open source.

888
00:52:04,089 --> 00:52:09,429
So it seems to me that there's no putting that monkey's paw back in the bottle.

889
00:52:09,569 --> 00:52:10,989
Open source AI is here.

890
00:52:11,809 --> 00:52:13,249
Face Torrents just launched.

891
00:52:13,509 --> 00:52:16,469
Hugging Face Alternative that uses torrents to distribute models.

892
00:52:16,929 --> 00:52:19,669
So now you've got torrents for open source models and weights.

893
00:52:20,429 --> 00:52:22,129
We're just getting started here.

894
00:52:22,249 --> 00:52:26,369
There's nothing OpenAI or Anthropic can do about that.

895
00:52:26,609 --> 00:52:28,269
And it's going right at their business.

896
00:52:28,469 --> 00:52:30,369
And it doesn't mean they don't have a business,

897
00:52:30,809 --> 00:52:33,789
but it probably means they don't have a $5 or $10 trillion business.

898
00:52:34,229 --> 00:52:37,889
And at one point, Anthropic was talking about being the only company in existence.

899
00:52:38,569 --> 00:52:39,809
I don't think they got that.

900
00:52:40,469 --> 00:52:45,929
It's way more likely I'm going to run unmetered AI for 85%, 90% of my jobs,

901
00:52:46,109 --> 00:52:51,269
and I'll send 10% of my workload up to the fancy frontier models

902
00:52:51,269 --> 00:52:55,569
for whatever fancy thing they're offering at that time that my local model is yet to offer.

903
00:52:56,429 --> 00:52:57,669
That's their business case.

904
00:52:57,829 --> 00:53:00,269
And that ain't a five to ten trillion dollar company, right?

905
00:53:00,549 --> 00:53:03,909
They all need to be the size of Microsoft within five years.

906
00:53:04,629 --> 00:53:06,809
And I think they're looking at this going, we can't do that.

907
00:53:06,889 --> 00:53:11,169
But if we all slow down for safety, we at least save face.

908
00:53:11,669 --> 00:53:15,549
We save face to the world, to China and to the investors.

909
00:53:15,929 --> 00:53:18,029
We save a little face because we're being responsible.

910
00:53:18,589 --> 00:53:20,509
Look, we've just figured out how to develop the automobile.

911
00:53:20,849 --> 00:53:23,289
And now we need all to agree how to make the automobile safe.

912
00:53:23,449 --> 00:53:25,109
That'll be better for everyone in the long term.

913
00:53:25,109 --> 00:53:28,969
That's the spin. That's why we're going this route. That's why they're using this narrative.

914
00:53:29,149 --> 00:53:35,449
It also happens to work fantastically for some of their investors' politics. But that's an aside.

915
00:53:36,129 --> 00:53:41,489
And so I think it's interesting that I'm not the only one thinking this way and that Bloomberg

916
00:53:41,489 --> 00:53:46,129
seems to be giving airtime to individuals that also are going down this line of thinking.

917
00:53:46,569 --> 00:53:52,109
Question. We spoke about a couple of months ago when I was last on. Things have gone from bad to

918
00:53:52,109 --> 00:53:56,109
worse and let's just step back for a second because there's so much day-to-day volatility

919
00:53:56,109 --> 00:54:02,129
this announcement that release etc etc most recently all this stuff over the weekend i mean

920
00:54:02,129 --> 00:54:09,289
tom paul think about this you have a commodity that's deflating at like record speed with

921
00:54:09,289 --> 00:54:16,929
debt that's being built up at record speed like what could possibly go wrong okay so every day

922
00:54:16,929 --> 00:54:20,489
you know every week there's another model that comes out and then the chinese could do it for 95

923
00:54:20,489 --> 00:54:25,449
percent off and now there's noises about you know trump maybe he's going to ban chinese ai or

924
00:54:25,449 --> 00:54:31,129
whatever as we said last time i think this is going to be the biggest misallocation of capital

925
00:54:31,129 --> 00:54:38,789
in history wow when people say is it worse than dot com not as bad as dot com history rhymes it

926
00:54:38,789 --> 00:54:42,169
doesn't repeat i read something interesting the other day not an original thought but i thought

927
00:54:42,169 --> 00:54:46,589
this fellow put it brilliantly he said you know this ai thing it's kind of reminds him it's kind

928
00:54:46,589 --> 00:54:54,949
If you took .com and merged it with the great financial crisis, i.e. all the Ponzi finance schemes of housing, it's kind of what you got.

929
00:54:55,149 --> 00:54:55,469
Oh, boy.

930
00:54:56,169 --> 00:55:01,649
So what aren't you buying here, I guess, in terms of the concept of AI?

931
00:55:02,869 --> 00:55:04,909
I mean, I think we're all kind of in a stable.

932
00:55:05,009 --> 00:55:09,469
We're trying to every day learn a little bit more what this means, what it actually is.

933
00:55:09,649 --> 00:55:14,269
To me, it just feels like what we were talking about five years ago, which was big data, and it's just another term.

934
00:55:14,269 --> 00:55:17,809
But I've been told, no, no, no, this is a new way of computing.

935
00:55:18,049 --> 00:55:20,829
This is a new way of processing information.

936
00:55:21,369 --> 00:55:26,489
And it requires a tremendous amount of computing power, which requires a tremendous amount of capital.

937
00:55:26,709 --> 00:55:29,169
And that's kind of what you got to get your head around.

938
00:55:29,809 --> 00:55:30,489
You're not buying that?

939
00:55:30,769 --> 00:55:31,069
No.

940
00:55:31,329 --> 00:55:32,129
We all use AI.

941
00:55:32,229 --> 00:55:32,869
I use AI.

942
00:55:33,209 --> 00:55:37,089
People savagely attack me on Substack and X because, oh, you used AI.

943
00:55:37,669 --> 00:55:38,669
Yeah, I like AI.

944
00:55:38,929 --> 00:55:39,169
Okay.

945
00:55:39,589 --> 00:55:41,169
It doesn't mean it's a good investment.

946
00:55:41,169 --> 00:55:45,809
it's like you know peter always talk about you know difference between the product and the stock

947
00:55:45,809 --> 00:55:51,649
all right the question is is ai if you if you do reverse engineer the math and you and you look at

948
00:55:51,649 --> 00:55:57,029
the trillions we're spending on capex and just reverse engineer and say okay how much gross

949
00:55:57,029 --> 00:56:02,029
profits they need to make to justify that and in turn what are the implied revenues that you need

950
00:56:02,029 --> 00:56:07,869
to justify that liars figure but figures don't lie and so the question is is there going to be

951
00:56:07,869 --> 00:56:11,329
an acceptable return on capital, all those trillions of dollars are being spent, or

952
00:56:11,329 --> 00:56:16,069
this is just going to be, you know, $100 billion TAM, and you're going to

953
00:56:16,069 --> 00:56:19,749
be a commodity business, and there's going to be no margins. That's the issue.

954
00:56:20,289 --> 00:56:23,989
And that could be what it is. I mean, that really could be what AI ends up

955
00:56:23,989 --> 00:56:27,369
being to a degree, unless they can really innovate products on top of that, which they very well might,

956
00:56:27,989 --> 00:56:31,889
you know, and focus on particular services and niche, and they could make a ton of money if they

957
00:56:31,889 --> 00:56:35,889
could get into medical, for example. I'm not saying I want them to, but they'd sure love

958
00:56:35,889 --> 00:56:41,369
to make a lot of money. The irony of it all, I think, is we could look back at the second half

959
00:56:41,369 --> 00:56:49,249
of 2026 as the time when the AI industry sabotaged their own pump from within. And if we're going to

960
00:56:49,249 --> 00:56:54,709
go down this route, if we're going to slow it down, if there's talks of an FDA for AI, just

961
00:56:54,709 --> 00:57:00,549
today, actually, and Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Steve Bannon, and others have come

962
00:57:00,549 --> 00:57:15,884
together to call for a complete pause on AI development as we figure all of this out because it always easy to raise the well we don know what we don know argument You can raise that at any point and you can kind of just imagine all kinds of things when

963
00:57:15,884 --> 00:57:17,445
you say, well, we don't know what we don't know.

964
00:57:17,504 --> 00:57:18,185
So let's pause.

965
00:57:18,585 --> 00:57:27,284
And I think what will happen is you will end up with a very stark have and have nots with

966
00:57:27,284 --> 00:57:28,825
access to AI.

967
00:57:28,825 --> 00:57:36,065
And I don't often say this, but I think Larry Fink has this right, because the man understands incentives.

968
00:57:36,065 --> 00:57:44,664
I think the delays in the build-out of AI is only going to make AI the domain of large firms.

969
00:57:45,404 --> 00:57:50,784
We have shortages in so many countries of inexpensive energy.

970
00:57:51,705 --> 00:57:55,264
We have shortages of chips and memory.

971
00:57:55,264 --> 00:58:01,925
and as these shortages continue, it's a very expensive build-out AI.

972
00:58:02,904 --> 00:58:07,784
And it's with that expense, it's more of the domain of large companies.

973
00:58:08,545 --> 00:58:11,685
And the faster we can build out more capacity,

974
00:58:11,685 --> 00:58:16,725
the more we can democratize and make it available for everyone.

975
00:58:17,465 --> 00:58:20,904
And I think the dichotomy that we're facing right now,

976
00:58:21,144 --> 00:58:23,585
it's the populism that's creating this slowdown

977
00:58:23,585 --> 00:58:27,004
because we have not articulated and defined what best practices,

978
00:58:27,185 --> 00:58:29,245
and I think that's obviously urgently necessary.

979
00:58:29,805 --> 00:58:33,605
But the irony is it actually slows down the democratization of technology.

980
00:58:34,445 --> 00:58:39,305
And technology works best when it's dispersed across society.

981
00:58:40,524 --> 00:58:43,705
And if we are going to see the societal delays,

982
00:58:43,705 --> 00:58:47,125
whether they're in Europe or, let's say, New York State,

983
00:58:47,125 --> 00:58:54,925
and then create a longer guide path to make this technology available for more.

984
00:58:55,865 --> 00:58:58,225
And that's one of the real critical issues.

985
00:58:58,705 --> 00:59:01,384
These delays make it harder, not better.

986
00:59:02,004 --> 00:59:03,164
But we do need the guidelines.

987
00:59:03,384 --> 00:59:05,925
We need the best practices to be doing it.

988
00:59:06,524 --> 00:59:09,965
And I think this is going to be one of the more serious conversations

989
00:59:09,965 --> 00:59:14,784
about how do we make this technology available for everyone.

990
00:59:14,784 --> 00:59:19,325
wanted. The fiat system is going to shoot itself in the foot over its own hysteria on this one.

991
00:59:19,725 --> 00:59:24,644
So let's just take a look at the bigger picture. Energy is getting more expensive. The Trump

992
00:59:24,644 --> 00:59:29,345
administration is going to have to pull a rabbit out of a hat to ease that. The bond market's

993
00:59:29,345 --> 00:59:35,725
getting harder to control, forcing Warsh to raise rates and show he's tough. Washington can't agree

994
00:59:35,725 --> 00:59:40,845
on the rules around any of it. So Besson's going off and doing his own thing. And the growth story

995
00:59:40,845 --> 00:59:42,045
that we've all been counting on

996
00:59:42,045 --> 00:59:45,205
is undermining and sabotaging itself.

997
00:59:46,085 --> 00:59:47,425
Every one of these problems

998
00:59:47,425 --> 00:59:48,805
eventually comes back to just,

999
00:59:49,004 --> 00:59:50,105
I think, a basic question.

1000
00:59:50,605 --> 00:59:51,685
Who controls the money?

1001
00:59:52,244 --> 00:59:53,685
Who sets the price of capital?

1002
00:59:54,445 --> 00:59:56,504
And who gets rescued if any of this breaks?

1003
00:59:56,685 --> 00:59:58,545
Because it's not you and me individually, right?

1004
00:59:59,264 --> 01:00:01,524
Bitcoin doesn't fix an energy shock.

1005
01:00:01,985 --> 01:00:03,985
It doesn't fix a broken Congress.

1006
01:00:04,465 --> 01:00:07,325
It doesn't fix a freaking bond market out.

1007
01:00:07,504 --> 01:00:08,945
Doesn't help it, doesn't fix it.

1008
01:00:08,945 --> 01:00:13,784
but it does give you an asset outside of all of that,

1009
01:00:14,605 --> 01:00:16,624
detached from the bailout community,

1010
01:00:16,965 --> 01:00:19,945
that doesn't worry about forward guidance on the long term,

1011
01:00:20,065 --> 01:00:22,984
doesn't require a 12 to 0 vote to set the price,

1012
01:00:23,585 --> 01:00:24,925
doesn't include any rescue.

1013
01:00:25,325 --> 01:00:26,805
There's no rescue with Bitcoin.

1014
01:00:27,465 --> 01:00:31,664
But at least it's not involved with all of this, right?

1015
01:00:31,744 --> 01:00:35,805
Like in the short term, sure, as the market discovers price, yes.

1016
01:00:35,805 --> 01:00:43,085
but long term the case for bitcoin is so clear and when we watch all of this go down it's so obvious

1017
01:00:43,085 --> 01:00:47,784
so stack sats stay humble i say

1018
01:01:05,805 --> 01:01:07,984
Let's check in on the state of the market.

1019
01:01:08,105 --> 01:01:14,545
Speaking of sats, wrapping up at block height, 967,325.

1020
01:01:15,744 --> 01:01:18,925
Bitcoin priced US dollar 76,130.

1021
01:01:19,705 --> 01:01:22,784
That puts our sats per dollar at 1,314.

1022
01:01:23,065 --> 01:01:25,284
We are down 39.7%.

1023
01:01:25,284 --> 01:01:28,325
Getting very familiar with this price range, aren't we?

1024
01:01:29,225 --> 01:01:31,125
345 days since our all-time high.

1025
01:01:31,625 --> 01:01:32,484
You savages.

1026
01:01:33,264 --> 01:01:35,365
Our retarget date is just around the corner.

1027
01:01:35,365 --> 01:01:39,284
September 18th with an upward adjustment of 4.7%.

1028
01:01:39,284 --> 01:01:43,504
Total reachable nodes on the network at 26,766.

1029
01:01:43,965 --> 01:01:49,664
We are up slightly since the last episode, 0.3%, but down 2.8% for seven days.

1030
01:01:50,805 --> 01:01:54,585
Transaction fees are low, one sat per V-byte for immediate transaction.

1031
01:01:56,545 --> 01:01:59,805
So if a liquid pegs open up, it'll be cheap.

1032
01:02:01,884 --> 01:02:03,105
A boy can dream.

1033
01:02:03,105 --> 01:02:06,865
But the Bitcoin network itself, well, that remains strong.

1034
01:02:07,264 --> 01:02:08,445
TikTok, next block.

1035
01:02:19,284 --> 01:02:21,224
Always keeps you guessing that Bitcoin.

1036
01:02:21,524 --> 01:02:25,065
Links to what I talked about and more at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1037
01:02:25,504 --> 01:02:27,925
Back catalog on some of these topics can be really useful.

1038
01:02:28,085 --> 01:02:31,445
Every show includes a transcript and chapters too you can point your clanker at.

1039
01:02:31,445 --> 01:02:36,565
also an mp4 if you like to go that route these clips generally have visuals let me know i did

1040
01:02:36,565 --> 01:02:42,264
with a boost to boost.jupiterbroadcasting.com the show does try to focus on the signal around what's

1041
01:02:42,264 --> 01:02:46,744
going on not the politics or the emotions which tries to sift out the signal so that way you can

1042
01:02:46,744 --> 01:02:50,724
plan for yourself your friends your family your future whatever it might be so you can let me know

1043
01:02:50,724 --> 01:02:55,045
how i did it with a boost right there and don't forget i i also want to get your take on if we're

1044
01:02:55,045 --> 01:02:59,845
going to hear from the clarity act version two and if you really want to shoot for the sky why

1045
01:02:59,845 --> 01:03:03,305
don't you come up with a new name something better than clarity because they're gonna need a new name

1046
01:03:03,305 --> 01:03:06,945
right they're gonna have to they're gonna have to rename that thing so you could you could toss

1047
01:03:06,945 --> 01:03:11,024
that in there if you want as well all right that's it for me thank you so much for joining me on this

1048
01:03:11,024 --> 01:03:16,404
week's episode of this week in bitcoin this week in bitcoin.show is the website jupiterbroadcasting.com

1049
01:03:16,404 --> 01:03:22,024
for linux unplugged and the launch we did uh did some really good episodes on random numbers on the

1050
01:03:22,024 --> 01:03:26,764
launch and we got into some of the ai stuff two episodes ago so there's some all over the place

1051
01:03:26,764 --> 01:03:30,045
LUP and LAUNCH, definitely check them out. And I'll see you back here next week.

1052
01:03:56,764 --> 01:04:26,744
Thank you.

1053
01:04:26,764 --> 01:04:39,045
Thank you.