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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 73.

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Wow, that seems impossible.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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Well, I hope this episode doesn't upset some of you.

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That's never my goal.

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Of course, it's not. But there is an uncomfortable truth in the Bitcoin community.

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I'm not the one that says I'm just the messenger.

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I didn't I didn't make the rules. OK, so don't get mad at me.

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Some folks come to Bitcoin. They want to escape the fiat system.

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They don't want to have to pay attention to the phony jobs numbers or the cooked inflation stats.

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They just want to focus on Bitcoin. I get that. It feels good to tune it all out.

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I can't really blame them. But ignorance isn't a strategy.

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It's more of a cope. And you can borrow a little bit of peace of mind in the short term.

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But eventually the bill of reality always comes due.

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It's a long story, but I learned that one the hard way.

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And it's like the sneaky stuff that gets you.

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If you're not watching, maybe you're outsourcing your decision making.

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It's the stuff that's sort of insidious and just works its way into your decision making.

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Like here's a great example.

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If, say, you based decisions around employment or compensation or just the job market in general around the data that we've been getting for like the last year.

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Well, you've been working from bogus data because breaking news.

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This is CNN breaking news.

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A new warning sign on the economy.

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Just moments ago, the government delivered a major update on the labor market.

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It shows jobs growth is weaker, much weaker than previously reported.

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There were actually 911,000 fewer jobs created in the 12 month period through March of this year.

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Whoa, you might as well just call it a cool mill.

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911,000 fewer jobs than reported.

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So all the jobs numbers, even the ones that have been revised, have been wrong by a massive margin.

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Between April 2024 and March 2025, they've revised it down by nearly a cold million.

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Everything dropped except mostly transportation and warehousing utilities.

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And I think medical, although I couldn't confirm that.

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And we just got a really crappy August jobs report too.

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So crappy August jobs report comes out, which everybody was going to freak out about before they got a chance.

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We saw this historically large revision.

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So that makes it the largest preliminary revision on record.

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CNN business and politics correspondent Vanessa Orkabich is in New York.

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I mean, Vanessa, as I just pointed out, this is huge.

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The largest revision on record. Walk us through what you're learning.

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Well, this just signals in that time period from March, excuse me, April of 2024 through March of 2025,

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the jobs market was a lot weaker than initially reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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So 911,000 fewer jobs added over that time period.

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And when you average it out over those 12 months, you get a revision,

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a downward revision of an average of 76,000 jobs.

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Now, this is a report that comes out every single year.

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It is typical. It is a typical report.

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What is a little bit atypical about this report,

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It is much higher than what we've seen in previous revisions.

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So the average number of jobs revised down is a lot greater.

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Now, it's important to note that this time period that we're looking at, most of these months were under the Biden administration.

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Just three months of this report was under the Trump administration.

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But in terms of what it's telling us about the economy, it's pointing to key sectors that are seeing downwards revisions in the number of jobs added.

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sectors like trade, transportation, utilities down about 226,000 jobs.

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And then you have leisure and hospitality and professional business services,

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also with triple-digit losses in terms of jobs that we thought were there but are not there.

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This is what happens in these reports.

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There's a couple reasons why we might be seeing these downward revisions.

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The first is that this is an estimate initially,

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And there was weaker than inferred job creation at new companies, so companies thinking they were adding more jobs that they didn't end up adding.

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Sampling errors from responses from businesses, you get these initial responses from businesses.

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But then this larger one-year report looks at quarterly tax filings, which are a lot more specific.

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And also in this preliminary benchmark report, you're not going to see the accounting for undocumented immigrants because they are not included in those quarterly tax filings.

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So I was expecting this sooner.

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I will admit this came later in the year than I thought it would.

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Maybe I didn't understand the scheduling.

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I thought we'd seen an earlier revision.

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But I will zap 5000 sats to anyone who clips my prediction from before the election saying this would happen.

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If you find it in the back catalog and clip it and send me a link, I'll zap you 5,000 sats.

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The way they collect the data for this is silly.

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You kind of heard it there.

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So they survey under 2,000 companies across various industries.

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And they take those survey answers on face value.

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So, yeah, we're going to hire more.

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We're feeling great.

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Trump's getting in the White House.

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We're hiring.

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Hoorah.

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Yeah, we feel good.

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And they report on there that they're doing more hiring or whatever it is.

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But then, of course, when you actually check what happened, they were either hiring illegals or they didn't do the hiring.

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And so when it came time to reconcile that balance, we got this revision.

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But it's a silly way to collect it.

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Just going over about 2,000 companies, taking their answers like that, it's never going to scale like they think it would.

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I mean, you could try, right?

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But it's just not going to scale.

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But if you've been taking their answers at face value, you've been taking bogus data at face value.

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The good news for the Fed is this gives them cover to cut the rates now without looking like they're pressured into it.

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I suspect the Fed probably was going to cut rates before this job revision came out.

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But this really gives them the cover to say, no, we have to do it because look at the job market.

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That's our second mandate here.

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The reality is we have reached a period of fiscal dominance and the Fed was going to have to cut regardless.

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They simply have no better option.

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So let's back up. Let's talk about fiscal dominance. You hear the term thrown around a lot.

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You could think of it as a period of time or an economic condition where the government's

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large and persistent deficits force the central bank to prioritize

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financing the government debt over controlling inflation. Essentially, they have to undermine

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their own monetary policy and one of their own mandates in order to maintain price stability

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because of the government's debt. So here's kind of, think of it like this. A government with high

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debt and ongoing deficits, it has to finance the spending. We've been talking about that.

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And they're currently doing it at extremely high rates. If the central bank raises rates to fight

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inflation, which it has been doing, it makes the government's debt even more expensive to service,

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which threatens economic sustainability and the sustainability of the government itself.

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It's existential for their world.

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So they have to compromise their monetary policy, the central bank.

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So they get essentially backed into a corner.

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And this is where you see them getting pressured to make interest rates come down.

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You see all kinds of stuff.

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Because the reality is the government has to continue to finance itself.

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So they compromise and we get, as people, inflation.

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You can call it inflation taxation, where they monetize the debt away by debasing the currency.

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And here's some key characteristics where you can spot this. You note the central bank starts to lose its independence. The public starts to expect inflation. So therefore, inflation tends to rise when people expect inflation. And you see the federal government either force or begin to work with financial institutions to hold more of the government debt, which we are seeing happen right now. It's been a key goal of the Trump administration.

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that penalizes savers. That penalizes savers big. We are clearly in this time period right now.

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I don't think anyone could deny it, right? We are living in a period of fiscal dominance. In fact,

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I think we've been here for a bit, and Lynn Alden thinks so too. She posted this

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in August of 2024. She wrote,

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if there's a date that marks when the U.S. began entering fiscal dominance,

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I would argue that is when the Fed resumed outright treasury purchases in October of 2019.

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Despite having little desire to do economic stimulus at the time, they had to do it.

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They didn't want to, but they had to.

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So today, the U.S. is $37 trillion in debt.

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We added a half a trillion dollars of federal debt in the last 30 days.

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And now we see the employment market has been falling apart for the last year.

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So if you've remained ignorant to what's going on, if you tried to measure the system from within the system using its own numbers, you're going to miss the mark.

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Even billionaires at the top of their game, if they're measuring the system with the system, will miss the mark.

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Here's Jamie Dimon's response to this large jobs revisions report.

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the economy's weakening you know whether that is in the other way to recession or this week and i

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don't know and that just confirms what we already thought kind of this might be true but of course

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i think jamie's missing a key factor these numbers tell us what's already happened we've already been

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through what these numbers are telling us is what we've already gone through we've all been living

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it this time period is looking backwards so the question is what happens next and this is one of

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the key reasons the Trump administration has been pounding the Fed from every avenue possible.

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A judge just just in the last few hours temporarily blocked the removal of Lisa Cook,

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the Federal Reserve governor that Trump wants out. The White House is standing its ground.

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They want her removed. In a statement tonight, they said the ruling isn't the last word.

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What is your reaction to this? Well, the ruling is interesting insofar as it says that Jay Powell,

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the chairman of the Federal Reserve, nor anyone else on the Fed can take any steps to effectuate

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her removal. Okay, can we just pause on that? Because that's super important, because many

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have speculated that this whole thing has been a workaround for the White House to insist that

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Jay Powell fire her. And when he doesn't, they will use that as their reason, and they need a

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reason to out him. Well, I mean, the court stayed this. They put a temporary restraining order on

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the removal of Lisa Cook. What's also interesting about this, since she is not being removed and they

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can't affect her job, that means she's a voting member of the policy setting committee, which

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decides on interest rates next Wednesday. Oh, my potatoes. So it gets complicated here for...

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It's complicated for a reason. They're going after everything they can. They're going after

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J-PAL. They're going after the credibility. And they're going after the individuals with what is

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essentially lawfare so they can get more control over the Federal Reserve. They've already lost

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independence. And now the fiscal dominance situation that we find ourselves in means that

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the federal government is in the driver's seat and they necessarily need more control. By the way,

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I'm not defending this. I'm not saying it's right or wrong. I'm telling you this is the reality.

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The Trump administration isn't attacking the Fed like this because Trump woke up one day,

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turned on Fox News and decided, oh, somebody doesn't like the Fed on Fox. I'm going to attack

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the Fed. These analysts, if you can call them that, completely missed the macro. They're so

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busy thinking about the politics and the messaging that they missed the macro. What we are witnessing

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is a White House in desperation. We are witnessing a White House scrambling every avenue they can.

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The Genius Act, attacking the Fed, going on and on about rates. All of this is to get more control

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so they can purchase debt at cheaper levels.

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The Treasury is still doing debt buybacks right now.

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I've been talking about it for weeks.

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It's still ongoing.

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They are doing historic buyback of their own debt,

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refinancing longer-term debt as short-term debt at higher rates

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with some sort of gamble, I assume,

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that they can refinance it again later.

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They are moving all of the decks around the Titanic,

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all the chairs around the deck of the Titanic right now.

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And these analysts just only look at it from a politics lens,

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and they're missing the macro picture as to what is driving the White House.

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So next Wednesday, if she's like, yeah, we'll cut rates, what's Trump going to do?

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Or she may say no, depending on what the inflation data looks like.

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Well, let's hope nobody makes a political decision and they make a decision based on economic data.

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Daniel, what do you think about this?

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Yeah, I mean, look, this is all a sham to try to get control of the board of governors so that,

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you know, President Trump can lower interest rates.

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He's not wrong here. They're not asking why.

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I think they just, oh, Trump wants a boom. It's more than that. Like they said, it's complicated.

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Manipulate the economy as much as he can. He knows that he can't fire Jay Powell, or at least at this point, he thinks that he can't.

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So he's trying to de facto gain control of the board by putting his own people there and coming up with these excuses.

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As been discussed on MSNBC many times, three cabinet secretaries, including the labor secretary, the transportation secretary, EPA administrator,

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have also done what he claims is so objectionable to Lisa Cook.

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But I don't see him going after his cabinet secretary.

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So this is all a front for a much larger game for Donald Trump.

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And frankly, it's pathetic.

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See, he kind of gets it, but not quite.

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The BLS numbers tell us the Fed was late.

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Trump was probably right.

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And they're desperate.

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But they all missed that key piece.

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We can all feel it.

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You can all feel it.

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Something else isn't right.

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You know, the prices are getting crazy.

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Things haven't always been like this.

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And I think the Trump administration, with the messaging around too late Jerome Powell and additional steps they're taking, is all an attempt to get ahead of this.

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I'm blown away by what I guess you would consider an essay from Treasury Secretary Scott Besant.

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He has implemented a full blown plan and is just saying the quiet part out loud to put all of the blame for all of this on the Fed.

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so scott besson i don't know how he has the time on september 5th released op-ed in the wall street

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journal highlighting a much larger 17 page report that he wrote titled the fed's new gain of function

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monetary policy and the sub headline is and again this is from the Treasury

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Secretary of the United States the sub headline is overuse of non-standard

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policies mission creep and institutional bloat are threatening the central bank monetary independence an incredibly ironic thing for the chief bond salesman to say especially during a period of fiscal dominance He goes on to say as we saw during the COVID pandemic

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when lab-created experiments escape their confines,

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they can wreak havoc on the real world.

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Once released, they cannot easily be put back into the containment zone.

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The extraordinary monetary policy tools unleashed after the 2008 financial crisis have similarly transformed the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy regime with unpredictable consequences.

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Secretary, you wrote, let's see, it came out last weekend, your latest op-ed piece in the

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Wall Street Journal, and you basically called now for a top-to-bottom review of all of Federal

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Reserve operations, monetary policy, regulatory policy, staffing, regional reserve banks,

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and the like.

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Tell us about that, because this sounds like a blueprint for a new Trump-oriented Federal

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Reserve Board.

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It's not a blueprint for a new Trump-oriented Federal Reserve Board, Larry.

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It is a blueprint for a Fed that values its independence and monetary policy.

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Because of this gain-of-function monetary policy and mission creep and bloat that the Fed has had, they are risking their monetary policy.

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I believe that the Fed should be able to set monetary policy on an independent basis.

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But the more creep we see within their mission, then the more it threatens their independence.

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And look, they have not covered themselves in glory in this decade.

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We had the worst inflation in 40 or 50 years.

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We never saw a post-examination of why things went wrong, how we can keep it from happening again.

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Regulatory policies.

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We saw the Silicon Valley Bank and the other two banks that went under.

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We saw that get swept under the rug.

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It's remarkable to hear a government official, let alone the Treasury Secretary, air this dirty laundry.

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And it's, of course, a little disingenuous.

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First of all, it's very cynical to use the gain-of-function terminology here.

225
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He's very much trying to draw a parallel here.

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It's also very savvy.

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I have to give him that.

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But to blame inflation and the economic disparity between the haves and have-nots, the asset owners and the non-asset owners, as all Fed policy, well, it's not true.

229
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It's not the full picture at all, right?

230
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The Fed didn't put everything on the federal government credit card.

231
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The federal government did that, right?

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The federal government's the one that's been promising everything to everybody to get reelected over and over again.

233
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But it's such a little cherry of a narrative because you can also just look through that lens and show how their economic policies, the Fed's direct policies, have absolutely created a cantillion effect that has benefited the people closest to the money spigot and the asset owners.

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It's provable.

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It's absolutely provable.

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So it's such a cherry of a narrative because you can spin it, you can go into it and you can show it. So like you can run with it. I mean, it's just it's it's never been done. I've never seen the I've never seen federal government official turn on the Federal Reserve like this and just air all of the dirty laundry and just come out there and say it's their fault.

237
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we have economic disparity. It's their fault we have inflation. It's their fault the banks

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collapsed. They raised rates too fast. I mean, they've always been on the same side. They've

239
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always covered for each other, hand in glove. They're independents. And look, they have not,

240
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they covered themselves in glory in this decade. We had the worst inflation in 40 or 50 years.

241
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We never saw a post-examination of why things went wrong, how we can keep it from happening again.

242
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Regulatory policies, we saw the Silicon Valley Bank and the other two banks that went under, we saw that get swept under the rug.

243
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And the independence of the Fed exists because they have a special relationship with the American public.

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They get to be appointed without budget constraints because the American people believe that they are above reproach.

245
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And again and again, drifting away from the central mission has just caused so many problems.

246
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That editorial is part of a much longer 15-page piece in a magazine online called The International Economy.

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I'd urge everyone to go and read that because the other thing that this Fed has done through these massive QE interventions and balance sheet growth is they've caused these wide disparities across different groups in the economies.

248
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That if you had assets, you've done great.

249
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If you didn't have assets, you've gotten crushed.

250
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Can you believe he just said that?

251
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I mean, think of five years ago.

252
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Could you ever picture a government official saying that?

253
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It's unbelievable, but it is the truth.

254
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And now they're saying it because they're trying to pin it on him.

255
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I thought it was 17 pages, a 15-page PDF report that Scott wrote.

256
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I'll have it linked in the show notes.

257
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I did go through it earlier in the week, and I found a couple of things I think Bitcoiners would find interesting.

258
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It sort of positions the Fed as a mad scientist.

259
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and they talk about QE and their balance sheet expansion as gain-of-function experiments that

260
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were impossible to contain. And they're right in the sense that the economy is a very complex

261
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organism. It's like a micro-universe, and you can't just push on one thing and expect another

262
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thing to pop out on the other end. So many other things in between get affected. And they attack,

263
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in a sense, central planning at its core. They say the Fed's growth forecasts were overshot by

264
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trillions in reality. Their models have been rough. They're more belief than they are math

265
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these days. And they paint the Fed as an inequality machine, saying directly that

266
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the quantitative easing pumped up assets for the rich and inflation hammered wage earners

267
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and decimated savings. And they call them out for being unaccountable and bloated. Scott does,

268
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not they, Scott, calls him out for being unaccountable and bloated, noting that the balance sheet ballooned from $1 trillion to nearly $9 trillion recently.

269
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And the Fed funds itself has just done it by printing its own money.

270
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So when it needs to increase its balance, it just funds itself.

271
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It's not an act of Congress.

272
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That's not great.

273
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But the reality, too, and they touch on this.

274
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He, it's just, it's inconceivable this would come from this guy.

275
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But I guess he did it.

276
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It's attributed to him.

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Scott Besson says that the reality is with all of this, the unintended consequences of the Wall Street and big corporations were able to thrive on cheap debt and smaller business firms and young families have been locked out of ownership.

278
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And we know that's true because the average new home buyer in the last couple of months has been 70 years old.

279
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That's rough.

280
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It's something like that, right?

281
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I think actually it's like 38, but if you look at it, I can't remember the stat, but it's like really, really, really not good in the sense that people are not able to achieve home ownership.

282
00:23:09,612 --> 00:23:15,992
And the stats for it are something – I think the new homeowner average age was 38, but the average amount of homes sold, the average age there was 70.

283
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So it's like the most people buying homes are in their 70s.

284
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And the average age – I think I've remembered it now.

285
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The average age of a new home buyer was 38.

286
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That's pretty crazy.

287
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I mean it's just mind-boggling statistics.

288
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It's hard to really kind of keep it straight, I have to be honest with you.

289
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And I think Scott's right when he points out that their credibility has kind of collapsed. They did it to themselves. I've heard it over and over again when they stepped into environmental policy and equity and inclusion and started including that in the FOMC minutes.

290
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that you like you could put it right on a chart that's the moment people started questioning what

291
00:23:50,592 --> 00:23:55,152
are you doing is a scope creep that that is the beginning of the crack of credibility for them

292
00:23:55,152 --> 00:24:02,672
so the blame game's going on now and the sitting treasury secretary of the freaking united states

293
00:24:02,672 --> 00:24:09,392
just came up with gain of function economics well he says gain of function monetary policy

294
00:24:09,392 --> 00:24:14,272
but it's gain of function economics i think grimes better hits better he just called out

295
00:24:14,272 --> 00:24:18,512
the Fed for creating this massive divide between the asset owners and the non-asset owners right

296
00:24:18,512 --> 00:24:23,812
there. This is the play. They're going to just continue to attack the Fed to get more power.

297
00:24:24,892 --> 00:24:30,732
They'll get what they want to. That's the thing. They're going to get what they want. The Fed's

298
00:24:30,732 --> 00:24:36,252
going to comply more and more so. And they'll pretend to remain independent because that's what

299
00:24:36,252 --> 00:24:40,072
the market depends on. They'll claim to be data-driven, even though everybody knows their

300
00:24:40,072 --> 00:24:45,752
data is old. And clearly, I mean, they've missed inflation up. They've missed inflation down.

301
00:24:45,832 --> 00:24:49,212
They've missed employment up. They've missed employment down. I mean, it's really bad.

302
00:24:49,212 --> 00:25:01,392
But the hard fact is, is the federal debt to GDP ratio is 124 percent. 124 percent debt to GDP.

303
00:25:02,212 --> 00:25:06,652
Wow. That's just a reality that puts the debt in the driver's seat.

304
00:25:06,652 --> 00:25:19,432
That means there's really no right answers the Federal Reserve can make, and they're just forced to help bail out the federal government. Lynn Alden explains it better than I can recently in the Impact Theory podcast.

305
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In fiscal dominance, almost everything the central bank does is wrong.

306
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That's the problem.

307
00:25:25,092 --> 00:25:29,012
Because if they hold interest rates high, so go back to what we said earlier.

308
00:25:29,292 --> 00:25:33,072
The primary purpose of raising interest rates is to slow down bank lending.

309
00:25:33,472 --> 00:25:39,172
The problem is that the whole period of inflation we've had for the past five years was not caused by excessive bank lending.

310
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It was caused by those fiscal deficits.

311
00:25:41,952 --> 00:25:43,552
Originally, it was intentional stimulus.

312
00:25:44,072 --> 00:25:46,472
And now it's just kind of this background higher deficit.

313
00:25:46,472 --> 00:25:55,472
So the Fed, in some ways, has been trying to raise interest rates to slow down bank lending to offset the real problem, which is the federal deficits.

314
00:25:55,992 --> 00:26:04,732
But by doing so, because the debt's over 100% GDP, by keeping interest rates high, they're also actually keeping the deficit high because they're keeping federal rates high.

315
00:26:05,192 --> 00:26:15,392
And yet if they cut interest rates while you have stocks at all-time highs, gold at all-time highs, Bitcoin at all-time highs, property values at all-time highs, then they're adding fuel to the fire too.

316
00:26:15,392 --> 00:26:27,172
And that's why you get to that statistic where 98% of economies, when they reach these debt levels, tend to have some sort of default, which can be through purchasing power, because their own central bank kind of runs out of options.

317
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And so I think that, you know, it's probably due for a mild cut just based on the duration of economic conditions.

318
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But I view that as a much like a smaller lever to pull than the fiscal situation.

319
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Kind of one way of putting it is that when the money's weak, people will monetize other things.

320
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And then by doing so, they make those things less available to those who just want to hold them for their actual utility use, not their monetary use.

321
00:26:56,372 --> 00:27:04,372
And so by monetizing our equity market, by monetizing our real estate market, because our money's weak, it causes all these more structural imbalances.

322
00:27:04,372 --> 00:27:07,092
And therefore, it causes periods of malinvestment.

323
00:27:07,552 --> 00:27:12,372
And it causes that kind of, along with other policy decisions, those high levels of wealth concentration.

324
00:27:27,912 --> 00:27:31,832
September 17th, 2025 is the date.

325
00:27:32,012 --> 00:27:33,552
Will they cut or won't they cut?

326
00:27:33,552 --> 00:27:40,932
I don't think it's an exaggeration to say this might be one of the most important FOMC meetings in my lifetime.

327
00:27:42,332 --> 00:27:52,852
The world will be watching JPOW as he takes the stage to decide what the reserve currency, the most important economy in the world, what the price of money is going to be.

328
00:27:53,572 --> 00:28:00,872
And the poly market odds right now show an 82% chance that the Fed is going to cut rates by 25 basis points, so 0.25.

329
00:28:00,872 --> 00:28:09,252
15% of the bettors are going for a 50 basis points cut, and only 3% are betting no change at all.

330
00:28:09,372 --> 00:28:14,152
So only 3% think nothing's going to happen, and nobody thinks that it's going to be an increase.

331
00:28:14,832 --> 00:28:18,412
This is also probably even more so.

332
00:28:18,472 --> 00:28:20,192
I'd say it's, I think 82 is low.

333
00:28:20,592 --> 00:28:21,632
I'm going to be honest with you.

334
00:28:21,672 --> 00:28:24,132
I think 82, I think it's like a 95% chance lock.

335
00:28:24,232 --> 00:28:28,832
Personally, that's my number, because today we got new wholesale inflation numbers.

336
00:28:28,832 --> 00:28:37,192
This is like the services price, and that's a key metric for the Fed when they're evaluating their stance on monetary policy in regards to how inflation impacts it.

337
00:28:37,592 --> 00:28:40,492
And we saw a 0.2% drop.

338
00:28:40,572 --> 00:28:50,432
Now, it's not blow away, but this producer price index, this is measuring the input costs, which measures it from a broad array of goods and services.

339
00:28:50,672 --> 00:28:52,772
That also went down 0.1%.

340
00:28:52,772 --> 00:29:02,032
So we have both services and producer price index notching down right before the Fed is supposed to announce cuts.

341
00:29:02,592 --> 00:29:07,292
PPI, wholesale inflation for August, expected to be up three tenths.

342
00:29:07,392 --> 00:29:11,592
No, no, no. Down one tenth of a percent. Down one tenth.

343
00:29:11,912 --> 00:29:17,832
Wow. That would be the first negative number since April of this year when it was minus two tenths.

344
00:29:17,832 --> 00:29:19,312
Strip out food and energy.

345
00:29:19,632 --> 00:29:21,672
We're also expecting up three-tenths.

346
00:29:21,812 --> 00:29:23,832
It's minus one-tenth as well.

347
00:29:24,132 --> 00:29:25,712
Minus one-tenth, the same.

348
00:29:25,972 --> 00:29:30,852
Last time we had a minus number was April, and we're comping to minus two-tenths in April.

349
00:29:31,072 --> 00:29:35,672
And I do want to point out, last month we had up nine-tenths on both those variables.

350
00:29:36,012 --> 00:29:38,252
They were the highest going back to March of 22.

351
00:29:38,692 --> 00:29:45,712
They just were revised slightly lower to 0.7, so seven-tenths of percent for each of those in the rearview mirror for July.

352
00:29:45,712 --> 00:29:48,572
Now, let's look at X food, energy, and trade.

353
00:29:48,892 --> 00:29:54,472
Finally, as expected, up three-tenths, which follows up six-tenths unrevised at this point.

354
00:29:54,872 --> 00:30:00,252
Up three-tenths would actually be the smallest, going back to zero in June of this year.

355
00:30:00,592 --> 00:30:03,472
Now, the year-over-year, in my opinion, these are the most important.

356
00:30:03,652 --> 00:30:04,992
And boy, I'm surprised.

357
00:30:05,132 --> 00:30:06,412
Real progress here.

358
00:30:06,772 --> 00:30:09,852
2.6 on year-over-year headline.

359
00:30:10,512 --> 00:30:14,172
We are expecting 3.3 in the rearview mirror, 3.3.

360
00:30:14,172 --> 00:30:33,012
Wow. So 2.6 when they were expecting 3.3. I mean, like you said, it's kind of good. And they even revised the previous month's numbers downwards. And isn't it great? It's just in time. We get a historically bad job revision report, a key inflation metric that the Fed watches has been improved.

361
00:30:33,012 --> 00:30:51,992
In fact, the previous numbers have even been revised. And now we see that for all of 2025 and most of 2024, the jobs were negative. We weren't adding jobs at all. Now, this all seems to be set up perfectly for the Fed to have a narrative to cut rates.

362
00:30:51,992 --> 00:30:57,912
Now, you know, maybe maybe earlier in 2025, they would have said, oh, we need more than one month of inflation data.

363
00:30:57,992 --> 00:31:00,692
We can't cut with just one good month of inflation data.

364
00:31:01,212 --> 00:31:03,604
I don think they going to sing that tune this time

365
00:31:14,045 --> 00:31:15,445
A wee bit of housekeeping.

366
00:31:15,764 --> 00:31:19,684
I am going on a road trip next week for the wife.

367
00:31:19,784 --> 00:31:20,284
It's her birthday.

368
00:31:20,684 --> 00:31:21,985
So I've booked her a little trip.

369
00:31:22,564 --> 00:31:25,344
And I won't have a new episode for you,

370
00:31:25,344 --> 00:31:28,245
but I do have a prerecorded episode in the can.

371
00:31:28,584 --> 00:31:30,165
I sat down with Oscar Mary.

372
00:31:30,165 --> 00:31:40,264
He's building the Fountain.fm app, and we chatted about how he got started in Bitcoin, kind of going from a Bitcoin casual to really pushing Bitcoin to be used every day as money.

373
00:31:40,384 --> 00:31:47,304
And we'll also get into some insights behind the Fountain podcast app, podcasting 2.0, Noster, and a lot more.

374
00:31:47,405 --> 00:31:49,804
So that'll be coming out next week, even though I'll be on the road.

375
00:31:50,045 --> 00:31:53,364
I'll probably release it a little early in the week and give some room.

376
00:31:53,364 --> 00:31:59,864
So if on Wednesday the Fed cuts rate and for some reason the market responds very badly, I don't think it's likely.

377
00:32:00,424 --> 00:32:04,945
But outside the U.S., the bond markets have been responding kind of poorly to rate cuts.

378
00:32:05,324 --> 00:32:07,064
And there has been some signaling that could happen here.

379
00:32:07,304 --> 00:32:08,324
So I'll keep an eye on things.

380
00:32:08,384 --> 00:32:12,044
If things go sideways, I'll try to break in with a quick podcast to get you all up to date.

381
00:32:12,705 --> 00:32:17,165
But if not, I'll just watch the stuff that really matters for Bitcoiners, and I'll cover it in the following episode.

382
00:32:17,465 --> 00:32:19,465
But either way, you're going to have a new episode next week.

383
00:32:19,864 --> 00:32:21,264
Definitely check that out with Oscar.

384
00:32:21,264 --> 00:32:31,124
It was a great chat, and he's got a lot of stuff in the works over there, and they're really pushing adoption of Lightning and getting people to use Lightning for all kinds of things.

385
00:32:31,384 --> 00:32:32,284
It's really great to see.

386
00:32:32,745 --> 00:32:36,905
So while I won't have a fresh live episode for you, I got something special.

387
00:32:43,604 --> 00:32:50,684
I wanted to make you aware of an NPM supply chain attack that you may be hearing about in its relation to Bitcoin wallets.

388
00:32:50,684 --> 00:33:00,844
The Ledger CTO put out a warning on X of a large scale supply chain attack that is currently in progress affecting different applications that utilize NPM libraries.

389
00:33:01,384 --> 00:33:02,745
And shout out to BTC Sessions.

390
00:33:02,884 --> 00:33:06,945
He put together an emergency podcast to cover it and he explains what's going on.

391
00:33:06,945 --> 00:33:11,124
But the CTO of Ledger said this earlier today.

392
00:33:11,324 --> 00:33:16,784
There's a large scale supply chain attack in progress.

393
00:33:16,784 --> 00:33:24,965
The NPM, which is short for Node Package Manager, account of a reputable developer has been compromised.

394
00:33:25,225 --> 00:33:27,505
No word on who that developer is.

395
00:33:27,985 --> 00:33:34,184
The affected packages have already been downloaded over 1 billion times.

396
00:33:34,425 --> 00:33:36,024
Billion with a B, indeed.

397
00:33:36,544 --> 00:33:41,584
Meaning the entire JavaScript ecosystem may be at risk.

398
00:33:41,584 --> 00:33:49,405
The malicious payload works by silently swapping crypto addresses on the fly to steal funds.

399
00:33:50,024 --> 00:33:54,705
If you use a hardware wallet, pay attention to every transaction before signing and you're safe.

400
00:33:55,024 --> 00:34:00,824
If you don't use a hardware wallet, refrain from making any on-chain transactions for now.

401
00:34:01,205 --> 00:34:08,725
It's still unclear whether the attacker is also stealing seeds from software wallets directly at this stage.

402
00:34:08,725 --> 00:34:11,124
and there was a report.

403
00:34:11,385 --> 00:34:13,465
I've got the report here as well.

404
00:34:14,264 --> 00:34:16,385
There's a lot of technical details in here,

405
00:34:16,725 --> 00:34:18,425
but one thing that stands out,

406
00:34:18,865 --> 00:34:19,624
the trick here,

407
00:34:20,144 --> 00:34:21,865
again, and maybe I'll go just above it.

408
00:34:22,124 --> 00:34:23,784
So, you know, this pertains to Bitcoin,

409
00:34:24,064 --> 00:34:25,784
but if you're shitcoining,

410
00:34:26,124 --> 00:34:27,744
you're also likely affected here.

411
00:34:27,744 --> 00:34:31,004
When an intercepted network request contains data,

412
00:34:31,225 --> 00:34:33,024
the code searches the data for strings

413
00:34:33,024 --> 00:34:34,784
that look like crypto addresses.

414
00:34:35,365 --> 00:34:37,044
If it finds one, it replaces it

415
00:34:37,044 --> 00:34:39,465
with one of the attacker's addresses.

416
00:34:40,004 --> 00:34:41,564
Now, this is the important bit

417
00:34:41,564 --> 00:34:44,165
because some people will just kind of scan over addresses

418
00:34:44,165 --> 00:34:46,504
willy-nilly and not get granular,

419
00:34:46,784 --> 00:34:48,965
which typically has been okay,

420
00:34:49,104 --> 00:34:50,004
but this is not.

421
00:34:50,365 --> 00:34:51,244
This is very interesting.

422
00:34:51,705 --> 00:34:54,925
The code doesn't just replace the found address

423
00:34:54,925 --> 00:34:57,284
with a random one of the attacker's.

424
00:34:57,544 --> 00:35:01,264
It replaces it with an address from its list

425
00:35:01,264 --> 00:35:04,544
that is visually most similar

426
00:35:04,544 --> 00:35:11,744
to the original, this makes it much harder for the victim to notice the swap. So when you copy

427
00:35:11,744 --> 00:35:16,144
an address to a field, it's replaced in the background before your data is ever sent.

428
00:35:16,144 --> 00:35:23,885
So effectively, you go to paste in a Bitcoin address and send to it. And it not only replaces

429
00:35:23,885 --> 00:35:30,445
that with a different address that belongs to said attacker, but the attacker address,

430
00:35:30,445 --> 00:35:35,144
It selects from a list and it picks one that looks pretty similar to yours.

431
00:35:35,264 --> 00:35:40,445
So if you don't have a keen eye and you're not being conscientious of it, it could be completely wrong.

432
00:35:40,845 --> 00:35:45,764
You know, the irony is this story broke when I was about an hour into moving and consolidating funds.

433
00:35:46,345 --> 00:35:51,764
You know, I was moving Bitcoin around on chain and I saw this news.

434
00:35:52,205 --> 00:36:00,584
Thankfully, we got an update, and it looks like, from what we can tell, there's at least almost no victims in the Bitcoin space.

435
00:36:01,365 --> 00:36:03,445
Charles on X, he's the CTO of Ledger, he writes,

436
00:36:03,445 --> 00:36:11,445
It began with a phishing email from a fake NPM support domain that stole credentials and gave attackers access to publish malicious package updates.

437
00:36:12,345 --> 00:36:16,064
Aside, this is a very common attack factor we see in open source.

438
00:36:16,604 --> 00:36:17,205
He continues,

439
00:36:17,205 --> 00:36:27,524
The injected code targeted web crypto activity, hooking into Ethereum, Solana, and other chains to hijack transactions and replicate wallet addresses directly in network responses.

440
00:36:27,905 --> 00:36:34,624
The attackers caused crashes in CI CD pipelines, which led to early detection and a limited impact.

441
00:36:35,104 --> 00:36:36,685
Still, this is a clear reminder.

442
00:36:37,124 --> 00:36:43,264
If your funds sit in a software wallet or on an exchange, you are one code execution away from losing everything.

443
00:36:43,784 --> 00:36:46,865
Supply chain compromises remain powerful malware delivery vector.

444
00:36:47,205 --> 00:36:50,185
And we're also seeing more targeted attacks emerge.

445
00:36:50,804 --> 00:36:54,405
This feels a little bit like, you know, pumping his bags here.

446
00:36:54,885 --> 00:36:56,345
It's a little bit of fear-mongering.

447
00:36:57,225 --> 00:37:01,544
It's, I think, maybe the broadest and best advice, though,

448
00:37:02,185 --> 00:37:05,304
because the nuance here is, yeah, don't use wallet software

449
00:37:05,304 --> 00:37:07,284
that takes advantage of NPM packages.

450
00:37:07,405 --> 00:37:09,644
But how, as an end user, are you really supposed to know that?

451
00:37:10,425 --> 00:37:12,304
Hardware wallets obviously are better in this regard,

452
00:37:12,304 --> 00:37:15,504
but still the software used to interface with them could be vulnerable.

453
00:37:16,284 --> 00:37:21,325
Ben has a rolling list of wallets not impacted by this on his BTC Sessions X account.

454
00:37:21,624 --> 00:37:27,445
And a couple that I noticed, Trezor, Cold Card, Foundation Passport and Envoy are not impacted.

455
00:37:27,584 --> 00:37:28,745
Bitbox, not impacted.

456
00:37:28,984 --> 00:37:34,865
Electrum, Spectre, Wasabi, Sparrow, Blockstream, including Jade and Green, not impacted.

457
00:37:35,284 --> 00:37:36,725
Nunchuck, not impacted.

458
00:37:36,885 --> 00:37:40,564
Casa, Blue Wallet, Phoenix Wallet, and a bunch of others not impacted.

459
00:37:41,104 --> 00:37:43,304
If you didn't hear yours, you might want to check the list.

460
00:37:44,064 --> 00:37:45,225
Kind of just did the top ones.

461
00:37:45,504 --> 00:37:53,104
So wallet vendors have been pretty good about just coming out right away and saying, not affected, trying to make sure everybody knows.

462
00:37:53,604 --> 00:37:58,725
And one of the things we do have to keep on top of, it is, I think, a good reminder of this potential attack vector.

463
00:38:00,064 --> 00:38:07,144
All right, since I'm going on vacay next week, if you could call it that, I expect support for the show is going to slump a little bit.

464
00:38:07,144 --> 00:38:13,445
So I'm going to ask you not one, but two questions to try to, you know, bump the support a little bit.

465
00:38:13,445 --> 00:38:21,705
Number one, was Trump right? Was J-Pow too late? I kind of think he was. The Fed probably was too

466
00:38:21,705 --> 00:38:28,484
late, but I don't actually blame the Fed or J-Pow. Can you guess why? Can you guess why I don't blame

467
00:38:28,484 --> 00:38:33,385
them for being late? Boost in with what you think the reason is. So that's question number one. You

468
00:38:33,385 --> 00:38:40,084
got it? I'd like to see what you guys come up with. Question number two, did you stack any

469
00:38:40,084 --> 00:38:46,544
sats this summer? And if you did, did you DCA or did you snipe by? And are you happy with that

470
00:38:46,544 --> 00:38:54,284
strategy? Let me know. That's question number two. Boost in with your report. Was Trump right?

471
00:38:54,784 --> 00:39:00,284
And why do I not blame the Fed and J-PAL for being late? And did you stack summer? Or did you

472
00:39:00,284 --> 00:39:05,064
stack summer? I didn't stack enough summer. That's why I'm going on a fall road trip with the wife.

473
00:39:05,064 --> 00:39:09,205
It's not quite fall, but it's like the, you know, I call it the elbow season.

474
00:39:09,284 --> 00:39:10,524
It's not quite the shoulder season.

475
00:39:11,044 --> 00:39:12,304
It's the elbow season.

476
00:39:12,304 --> 00:39:14,124
And that's the perfect time for a road trip.

477
00:39:14,405 --> 00:39:15,124
So let me know.

478
00:39:15,185 --> 00:39:17,445
Did you DCA while you were stacking summer?

479
00:39:17,604 --> 00:39:19,685
Did you also stack some sats or did you snipe by?

480
00:39:35,064 --> 00:39:40,524
We still got a lot more to get into.

481
00:39:40,705 --> 00:39:43,705
So I just want to mention you can support the show by doing what you do.

482
00:39:43,804 --> 00:39:46,124
If you want to buy sats on river, do it.

483
00:39:46,165 --> 00:39:48,624
It's one of the best ways to stack sats in the U.S.

484
00:39:48,624 --> 00:39:49,964
And you use my link in the show notes.

485
00:39:50,124 --> 00:39:51,084
You support the show.

486
00:39:51,365 --> 00:39:54,765
If you're all about self-custody and you're in Canadians or Americas,

487
00:39:55,385 --> 00:40:01,304
the Bitcoin Well is an amazing automatic self-custody platform to and from direct to your wallet.

488
00:40:02,004 --> 00:40:04,544
If you've got some sats online and you're ready to spend them,

489
00:40:04,544 --> 00:40:10,024
the Bitcoin company will go from Lightning to a gift card in about 30 seconds.

490
00:40:10,024 --> 00:40:13,084
You can log in with your Lightning, no new account required,

491
00:40:13,365 --> 00:40:14,644
and the only thing they do is Bitcoin.

492
00:40:15,084 --> 00:40:17,544
Now, if you want to stack sats while you're paying your bills,

493
00:40:17,665 --> 00:40:20,284
doing what you do day to day, the FoldCard.

494
00:40:20,425 --> 00:40:22,885
It's a legend in the community, and I use it every single day.

495
00:40:23,325 --> 00:40:27,024
And then when it comes time to get access to some of your Bitcoin's value

496
00:40:27,665 --> 00:40:29,284
without selling your Bitcoin,

497
00:40:29,865 --> 00:40:32,445
Salt Lending will hook you up with a loan of just about any amount,

498
00:40:32,905 --> 00:40:34,165
and they make it really straightforward.

499
00:40:34,544 --> 00:40:36,705
Links to all of those in the show notes.

500
00:40:36,845 --> 00:40:39,584
Support the show just by doing what you do.

501
00:40:57,584 --> 00:41:01,604
Ask not what your podcast can boost for you,

502
00:41:01,604 --> 00:41:04,524
but what you can boost for your podcast.

503
00:41:05,064 --> 00:41:05,564
Dang right.

504
00:41:05,624 --> 00:41:08,205
And we got some direct support from Bitcoin Lizard,

505
00:41:08,265 --> 00:41:12,245
who is our baller booster this week with 50,000 sats.

506
00:41:12,345 --> 00:41:13,705
Hey, rich lobster!

507
00:41:15,584 --> 00:41:16,104
Yeah!

508
00:41:18,624 --> 00:41:20,564
Good to hear from you, Bitcoin Lizard.

509
00:41:20,644 --> 00:41:21,425
Thank you very much.

510
00:41:21,464 --> 00:41:22,784
He says, I don't like spam.

511
00:41:23,385 --> 00:41:26,804
But there's a way things ought to be and the way things are.

512
00:41:27,064 --> 00:41:29,564
Transactions with op return larger than 83 bytes

513
00:41:29,564 --> 00:41:32,685
can be relayed in mind today without Bitcoin Core 30.

514
00:41:33,304 --> 00:41:37,484
Short of a consensus change and the solution to stop spam transactions,

515
00:41:38,205 --> 00:41:40,725
though short of a consensus change,

516
00:41:40,964 --> 00:41:43,024
the solution to stop spam transactions

517
00:41:43,024 --> 00:41:45,265
is for them to be priced out of the block space

518
00:41:45,265 --> 00:41:46,865
by market and financial transactions.

519
00:41:47,484 --> 00:41:51,044
Filtering at the relay to stop spam is futile.

520
00:41:52,245 --> 00:41:56,345
Okay, I agree 95% Bitcoin lizard, but what if,

521
00:41:56,345 --> 00:42:01,624
what if you slightly increased operaturn size and kept filters for other things?

522
00:42:02,504 --> 00:42:06,644
And then so you had kind of like a channeling of way people should use it.

523
00:42:06,865 --> 00:42:07,644
And then you're right.

524
00:42:07,685 --> 00:42:09,385
You let economic activity price them out.

525
00:42:09,665 --> 00:42:12,405
I do think ultimately that's what's going to end up happening anyways.

526
00:42:12,685 --> 00:42:19,385
And we'll look back at this as maybe more about how no diversity was started

527
00:42:19,385 --> 00:42:22,484
and less about spam and choking up the blockchain.

528
00:42:22,964 --> 00:42:25,205
And we'll just look at, of course, they eventually got priced out.

529
00:42:25,205 --> 00:42:28,925
I could be wrong, but thank you for that boost, and it's great to hear from you.

530
00:42:29,725 --> 00:42:32,064
Marius February comes in with 21,000 sats.

531
00:42:32,185 --> 00:42:34,185
Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days.

532
00:42:34,205 --> 00:42:35,885
We need a 21,000 sat boost.

533
00:42:36,024 --> 00:42:37,024
I need like a Bitcoin.

534
00:42:37,544 --> 00:42:41,304
I need something that's really uniquely Bitcoin for 21,000 sats.

535
00:42:41,524 --> 00:42:42,845
The traders love the vol.

536
00:42:43,024 --> 00:42:44,445
No message, just value.

537
00:42:44,524 --> 00:42:45,004
Thank you, Marius.

538
00:42:45,144 --> 00:42:46,185
Nice to hear from you.

539
00:42:46,705 --> 00:42:49,804
Slacker came in with 7,777 sats.

540
00:42:50,225 --> 00:42:51,524
That's not possible.

541
00:42:51,665 --> 00:42:52,604
Nothing can do that.

542
00:42:52,725 --> 00:42:53,765
Everything's under control.

543
00:42:53,765 --> 00:42:55,484
Hey, Chris, big fan of the show.

544
00:42:55,765 --> 00:43:00,265
After looking at BTC map in my area and becoming aware of the sad reality of vendor adoption,

545
00:43:00,804 --> 00:43:04,405
I've been thinking about starting a business, maybe like a B2B, to help change that.

546
00:43:04,725 --> 00:43:10,865
I envision a product that I can allow a business to self-sovereign and doesn't take away from the customer experience at checkout.

547
00:43:11,225 --> 00:43:13,584
Integration with existing point-of-sale systems would be a plus.

548
00:43:14,144 --> 00:43:17,405
What potential challenges or opportunities might you see with this type of business?

549
00:43:18,265 --> 00:43:22,464
Well, I think it should be more about hands-on services and support and less about building things.

550
00:43:22,464 --> 00:43:25,084
and maybe you should be packaging things that already exist

551
00:43:25,084 --> 00:43:26,304
that also come with support.

552
00:43:26,925 --> 00:43:28,544
And you're adding the value of integration.

553
00:43:28,945 --> 00:43:30,765
You're adding the value of helping them get it working

554
00:43:30,765 --> 00:43:32,865
and being there with hands-on to help customers.

555
00:43:32,945 --> 00:43:34,405
You could even be there right on opening day.

556
00:43:35,024 --> 00:43:36,604
There's a lot of things out there you could look at.

557
00:43:36,885 --> 00:43:39,185
If you're looking for just pure point of sales that's just Bitcoin,

558
00:43:39,365 --> 00:43:40,265
you could do that with Zeus.

559
00:43:40,964 --> 00:43:43,284
Also, I think ZapRite could be worth looking at.

560
00:43:43,804 --> 00:43:46,784
ZapRite lets you generate point of sales pages

561
00:43:46,784 --> 00:43:48,104
that would work great on a terminal.

562
00:43:48,765 --> 00:43:49,945
ZapRite lets you have links.

563
00:43:49,945 --> 00:43:53,024
and ZapRite also lets you do all kinds of other types of things

564
00:43:53,024 --> 00:43:54,584
when it comes to payments and businesses like.

565
00:43:54,725 --> 00:43:56,225
But the thing that really matters,

566
00:43:56,765 --> 00:43:57,705
shouldn't bury the lead,

567
00:43:58,225 --> 00:44:01,024
is ZapRite supports connecting to Stripe

568
00:44:01,024 --> 00:44:04,484
and to Strike and to your node, your own node.

569
00:44:04,624 --> 00:44:06,445
It supports connecting to AlbiHub.

570
00:44:06,885 --> 00:44:08,245
It supports XPUBs.

571
00:44:08,304 --> 00:44:11,484
I mean, it's like the backend is really nice

572
00:44:11,484 --> 00:44:13,725
to connect to all different kinds of services.

573
00:44:13,725 --> 00:44:16,304
And so the consumer ends up with a payment page

574
00:44:16,304 --> 00:44:17,124
where they're asked,

575
00:44:17,284 --> 00:44:18,644
would you like to pay with Venmo or PayPal?

576
00:44:18,644 --> 00:44:21,205
Would you like to use ACH or debit card?

577
00:44:21,464 --> 00:44:22,925
Would you like to pay with Lightning or Bitcoin?

578
00:44:23,464 --> 00:44:26,925
You have all these options in one point of sales, and that's ZapRite.

579
00:44:27,385 --> 00:44:28,325
That's pretty powerful.

580
00:44:28,705 --> 00:44:34,024
Of course, we also know Stripe has been working on some of these things, but I don't think it's actually available right now.

581
00:44:34,685 --> 00:44:36,284
Jack's company is working on these types of things.

582
00:44:36,425 --> 00:44:41,544
I think ZapRite is one option, and Zeus is another great option for point of sales devices right now.

583
00:44:41,804 --> 00:44:42,885
And I'd be up for hearing others.

584
00:44:42,964 --> 00:44:47,325
If I missed one out there, let me know, because I want to give a shout out if it's any good.

585
00:44:47,584 --> 00:44:48,584
Thank you for the boost.

586
00:44:48,984 --> 00:44:50,165
Let me know how it goes, Slacker.

587
00:44:50,765 --> 00:44:52,484
Sounds like Slacker might be the wrong name.

588
00:44:53,064 --> 00:44:53,644
You know what I mean?

589
00:44:53,905 --> 00:44:54,504
You're getting it done.

590
00:44:55,345 --> 00:44:57,084
Paranoid Coder comes in with 2,000 sats.

591
00:44:57,165 --> 00:44:58,604
Coming in hot with the boost.

592
00:44:58,705 --> 00:44:59,784
No message, though.

593
00:44:59,905 --> 00:45:00,885
Just the value.

594
00:45:01,024 --> 00:45:01,325
Thank you.

595
00:45:01,405 --> 00:45:02,144
Appreciate that.

596
00:45:02,504 --> 00:45:03,144
Always happy.

597
00:45:04,064 --> 00:45:08,024
And then we got OneDullGeek coming in with 2,999 sats.

598
00:45:08,385 --> 00:45:09,325
I like you.

599
00:45:09,705 --> 00:45:10,725
You're a hot ticket.

600
00:45:10,725 --> 00:45:14,205
I don't think keeping transactions with Operaturn at 80 bytes is censorship.

601
00:45:14,725 --> 00:45:19,205
It's exactly the same way I don't think letting miners create more than 21 million Bitcoin is censorship.

602
00:45:19,765 --> 00:45:21,745
Calling both of these censorship is demagoguery.

603
00:45:22,484 --> 00:45:23,185
Meant to say filtering.

604
00:45:23,445 --> 00:45:24,365
Yeah, okay, I follow you.

605
00:45:24,765 --> 00:45:28,445
Yeah, I think it's fair to say censorship is sort of a dramatic way to put it.

606
00:45:29,024 --> 00:45:29,964
Right? It is.

607
00:45:29,964 --> 00:45:32,804
I think it's an emotionally charged word.

608
00:45:32,945 --> 00:45:33,665
I think I agree with you.

609
00:45:33,705 --> 00:45:34,524
Thank you, Wundell Geek.

610
00:45:35,165 --> 00:45:37,905
Tortoises comes in with 5,000 sats.

611
00:45:38,004 --> 00:45:38,425
Hey, yeah.

612
00:45:38,504 --> 00:45:39,225
This is the way.

613
00:45:39,325 --> 00:45:39,925
It is the way.

614
00:45:40,004 --> 00:45:40,685
Thank you very much.

615
00:45:40,865 --> 00:45:41,524
Tough little shit.

616
00:45:42,345 --> 00:45:42,665
Little.

617
00:45:42,665 --> 00:45:45,385
Is there any monetary uses for op returns?

618
00:45:45,584 --> 00:45:47,144
I know everyone brings up JPEGs,

619
00:45:47,245 --> 00:45:49,365
but could not be filtering out non-spammy transactions.

620
00:45:50,504 --> 00:45:52,765
You know, I think there is a use case

621
00:45:52,765 --> 00:45:55,325
for people that want to inscribe things into a time chain.

622
00:45:56,265 --> 00:45:58,865
Marriages, licenses for like a house.

623
00:45:59,084 --> 00:46:00,604
I don't know, licenses isn't the right term,

624
00:46:00,665 --> 00:46:01,325
but you know what I'm saying?

625
00:46:01,825 --> 00:46:03,304
Moments in life, perhaps,

626
00:46:03,385 --> 00:46:05,705
that you want to inscribe and leave your mark

627
00:46:05,705 --> 00:46:08,265
because it's, at some point,

628
00:46:08,705 --> 00:46:10,144
humans are going to realize

629
00:46:10,144 --> 00:46:11,644
the permanence of the blockchain.

630
00:46:12,185 --> 00:46:14,165
It's more permanent than anything they have.

631
00:46:14,225 --> 00:46:15,624
It lasts longer than your hard drive.

632
00:46:16,484 --> 00:46:27,984
So if you could transcribe, say, your child's birth certificate or, I don't know, something to celebrate their birth or a news article about you or your marriage.

633
00:46:27,984 --> 00:46:34,165
Like if you could, it's almost like buying a piece of moon real estate, right?

634
00:46:34,405 --> 00:46:50,517
It theoretical in a sense but it also a precious thing I think there something there that people will pay for because it is a limited thing just like the Bitcoin itself is limited So is the block space And so that makes it precious And I think there is an element I wondered

635
00:46:50,637 --> 00:46:57,217
like if we did fill it up with JPEGs of monkey butts and whatnot, I think it makes the chain

636
00:46:57,217 --> 00:47:02,697
less valuable in a way because it's filled up with junk. I don't think we'll get there. I think

637
00:47:02,697 --> 00:47:08,377
they'll get priced out before that happens though good question thank you tortoises i think i'm

638
00:47:08,377 --> 00:47:13,537
saying that right i appreciate the boost it's always nice to hear from you boosting again

639
00:47:13,537 --> 00:47:19,757
her night her an 88 came in with 7777 sets put some macaroni and cheese on there too the core

640
00:47:19,757 --> 00:47:24,457
knots thing is about core removing user options in my opinion free and open source software is

641
00:47:24,457 --> 00:47:29,837
about empowering users knots enables more options for the users the current b core team needs to

642
00:47:29,837 --> 00:47:33,857
reflect on the broader intentions of the users and the Bitcoin network itself.

643
00:47:34,377 --> 00:47:34,857
I agree.

644
00:47:35,557 --> 00:47:38,417
You can still, of course, adjust these things, but they're talking about removing these options

645
00:47:38,417 --> 00:47:38,857
in the future.

646
00:47:38,897 --> 00:47:40,337
And that does seem ridiculous.

647
00:47:40,337 --> 00:47:43,697
And it does seem like the antithesis of open source.

648
00:47:44,437 --> 00:47:45,077
Get me going there.

649
00:47:45,137 --> 00:47:45,497
Thank you, Hearn.

650
00:47:45,617 --> 00:47:46,857
Appreciate it very much.

651
00:47:47,197 --> 00:47:47,417
All right.

652
00:47:47,417 --> 00:47:49,237
Next boost comes in from Atone.

653
00:47:49,557 --> 00:47:51,937
Atone's here with 4,444 sats.

654
00:47:51,997 --> 00:47:52,917
That's a big old duck.

655
00:47:55,437 --> 00:47:59,157
I'm fine with non-monetary transactions if they want to pay for the block space.

656
00:47:59,157 --> 00:48:01,717
They'll get priced out of the base chain eventually anyways.

657
00:48:02,437 --> 00:48:06,977
But I do worry about what Crater and the mechanic are currently arguing.

658
00:48:07,317 --> 00:48:12,777
This means we'll have to store and relay arbitrary 100 kilobyte files, including illicit or evil stuff.

659
00:48:13,097 --> 00:48:16,117
I fear this could be putting node runners at risk for very little benefit.

660
00:48:16,857 --> 00:48:20,237
I'm not so worried about the risk, but I don't like the...

661
00:48:20,237 --> 00:48:27,017
Nobody wants the association of illegal, illicit material getting stored in the blockchain.

662
00:48:27,017 --> 00:48:29,077
And we have seen that happen with BSV.

663
00:48:29,157 --> 00:48:49,397
It did happen. We actually have seen this scenario play out with BSV. However, it is not an A to B comparison. BSV is worth nothing. The fees are nothing, right? Things would change very fastly in the Bitcoin space. So there is that mitigating factor. Good boost, though. And, you know, I'm glad to see NOTs is around for people to make that decision.

664
00:48:50,057 --> 00:48:51,817
BobbyPink comes in with 2,000 sats.

665
00:48:51,957 --> 00:48:53,497
B-O-O-S-T.

666
00:48:53,677 --> 00:48:56,997
I would be interested in hearing a guide on setting up Notts on Start 9.

667
00:48:57,137 --> 00:48:59,377
I use Notts, and I have it set up on Umbral.

668
00:48:59,617 --> 00:49:01,677
I did it this weekend, and it was incredibly easy.

669
00:49:01,797 --> 00:49:05,797
I hear people, and I respect that you use Start 9, but I don't see the appeal to it.

670
00:49:06,037 --> 00:49:09,437
Seems like it has less applications and still the same hardware limitations.

671
00:49:10,817 --> 00:49:11,217
Disclaimer.

672
00:49:12,437 --> 00:49:17,677
I've only quickly looked at Start 9, and I run a couple of Umbral instances.

673
00:49:18,377 --> 00:49:22,277
So that said, I have a lot more experience with Umbral than I do Start9.

674
00:49:23,037 --> 00:49:29,697
However, I think if I were to deploy again, I'd probably try Start9 because I've heard it's very well built and very well maintained.

675
00:49:29,977 --> 00:49:31,277
It's not that Umbral isn't.

676
00:49:31,337 --> 00:49:41,217
It's just that I've been using Umbral from the beginning and I've gone through a couple of hard upgrades and one of my nodes is stuck in like at an older version and I can't get to Umbral 1.0 or whatever it is.

677
00:49:41,937 --> 00:49:45,417
I find that very frustrating, which is why I went to NixBitcoin, to be honest with you.

678
00:49:45,417 --> 00:49:49,437
but having reflected on this since we last chatted,

679
00:49:49,737 --> 00:49:51,697
I've realized that I do need to get familiar with Start9

680
00:49:51,697 --> 00:49:53,897
because I can't expect everybody out there

681
00:49:53,897 --> 00:49:55,677
to deploy Umbral or NixBitcoin.

682
00:49:56,177 --> 00:49:58,397
And I think Start9 is something I'm going to spend some time on

683
00:49:58,397 --> 00:50:02,177
post-wife trip and when I get back and get my feet under me again.

684
00:50:02,457 --> 00:50:03,937
So I may have more thoughts on Start9,

685
00:50:04,077 --> 00:50:05,717
but I, like you, have heard a lot of good things,

686
00:50:06,297 --> 00:50:10,017
and I know they're working on a new and improved architecture as well

687
00:50:10,017 --> 00:50:12,657
that will probably be out before Christmas,

688
00:50:12,657 --> 00:50:14,057
but I don't know.

689
00:50:14,097 --> 00:50:15,617
I don't have any insider information on that.

690
00:50:16,257 --> 00:50:17,157
Good question, Bobby Penn.

691
00:50:17,457 --> 00:50:18,277
Let me know where you land

692
00:50:18,277 --> 00:50:19,497
and I'll try to update you as well.

693
00:50:20,197 --> 00:50:21,577
Hello, there's here with a row of ducks,

694
00:50:21,677 --> 00:50:23,277
2,222 sats.

695
00:50:24,177 --> 00:50:24,957
No value.

696
00:50:25,217 --> 00:50:25,777
I mean, no value.

697
00:50:26,977 --> 00:50:29,277
No message, but all the value.

698
00:50:29,497 --> 00:50:30,157
Thank you, hello there.

699
00:50:30,257 --> 00:50:31,057
I appreciate it.

700
00:50:31,457 --> 00:50:34,077
Southside's here with 2,021 sats.

701
00:50:35,657 --> 00:50:38,597
No one can alter your node except you.

702
00:50:38,837 --> 00:50:40,537
No one can make you download

703
00:50:40,537 --> 00:50:41,537
a version of Bitcoin Core

704
00:50:41,537 --> 00:50:42,297
that changes something

705
00:50:42,297 --> 00:50:48,817
except you. Users can change the default settings or run other clients. Boom! It's very true. Yes,

706
00:50:49,097 --> 00:50:54,037
it's very true. You can stick with core for now and just change the runtime settings. Not forever,

707
00:50:54,737 --> 00:50:58,517
but soon. And he links us to an article on Bitcoin Magazine that I have seen,

708
00:50:59,257 --> 00:51:03,057
and it's titled, You Aren't Mad at Bitcoin, You're Mad at Me, if you want to look it up.

709
00:51:03,377 --> 00:51:09,697
You make me want to be a better man. Oh, here we go. Mafferio comes in with 15,000 sats.

710
00:51:12,297 --> 00:51:16,577
Says, thanks for the breakdown of the spam debate.

711
00:51:16,917 --> 00:51:20,637
I think I'm leaning towards the not side, but I can kind of understand both sides.

712
00:51:21,277 --> 00:51:22,897
Yeah, I agree, man.

713
00:51:23,177 --> 00:51:23,957
Thank you for the boost.

714
00:51:24,337 --> 00:51:24,997
Appreciate it.

715
00:51:25,337 --> 00:51:27,017
Gene Bean's back with a row of ducks.

716
00:51:28,077 --> 00:51:32,237
Regarding a guide for knots, target, he says, umbral, in my opinion.

717
00:51:32,997 --> 00:51:35,397
I know, Gene, I was actually thinking start nine, though.

718
00:51:36,097 --> 00:51:36,897
I might do, man.

719
00:51:37,297 --> 00:51:38,717
This is the thing.

720
00:51:38,917 --> 00:51:40,897
This is where I have been hung up.

721
00:51:41,157 --> 00:51:42,097
This is where I've been hung up.

722
00:51:42,297 --> 00:51:47,357
Thank you, Gene. I do appreciate the signal, and it's good to hear from you. Hope you're doing well.

723
00:51:48,157 --> 00:51:53,737
Adversaries 17 is here with 6,100 and 14 sats.

724
00:51:53,797 --> 00:51:56,077
I like you. You're a hot ticket.

725
00:51:56,357 --> 00:51:57,917
Adversaries writes, random thought.

726
00:51:58,677 --> 00:52:03,397
How cool would it be to have a mining pool of Jupyter Broadcasting listeners and members?

727
00:52:03,877 --> 00:52:07,457
Just a fun experiment of distributed mining, perhaps?

728
00:52:07,977 --> 00:52:09,677
I would love that.

729
00:52:09,677 --> 00:52:14,757
let's do it i i should get a bit axe i just don't have the funds to just spend on that kind of thing

730
00:52:14,757 --> 00:52:19,077
right now but i'd love a little minor you know six terror hash a little humble maybe one day up to

731
00:52:19,077 --> 00:52:24,257
10 you know humble terror hash here and we all pool together oh my god we could do updates on

732
00:52:24,257 --> 00:52:31,657
the show adversaries that's a great idea i i really like that thank you for boosting in thank

733
00:52:31,657 --> 00:52:36,737
you for being a friend adversaries hope to hear from you again mds is here with 10 000 sats

734
00:52:36,737 --> 00:52:38,577
It's over 9,000!

735
00:52:39,177 --> 00:52:42,417
Your show's become a regular listen, so here's a little bit of value for value.

736
00:52:43,257 --> 00:52:44,977
Purple monkey dishwasher.

737
00:52:46,077 --> 00:52:48,757
Yes, purple monkey dishwasher indeed.

738
00:52:49,037 --> 00:52:49,857
Good, good.

739
00:52:53,557 --> 00:52:57,237
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 4,321 sats.

740
00:52:57,337 --> 00:52:59,737
They're real and they're spectacular.

741
00:53:00,437 --> 00:53:04,577
Regarding your question on which platform to run knots on, I'd say Linux.

742
00:53:04,577 --> 00:53:07,737
Yeah, man. Yeah, I agree.

743
00:53:08,497 --> 00:53:11,257
You're the Linux guy, so asking to do another platform would be blasphemy.

744
00:53:11,477 --> 00:53:12,297
I wasn't asking to.

745
00:53:12,737 --> 00:53:15,317
I assume Linux, dude.

746
00:53:15,597 --> 00:53:17,077
I assume I'm doing it on Linux.

747
00:53:17,297 --> 00:53:18,777
Kiwi, come on.

748
00:53:19,537 --> 00:53:22,197
We're going to run knots on Mac OS? On Windows?

749
00:53:22,637 --> 00:53:26,037
I was a Bitcoiner before getting to Linux and the other open protocols.

750
00:53:26,177 --> 00:53:29,177
I really think Bitcoiners should embrace the full open stack.

751
00:53:29,377 --> 00:53:30,317
Yes, yes.

752
00:53:30,677 --> 00:53:32,237
B-O-O-S-T.

753
00:53:32,237 --> 00:53:52,917
I agree. It's part of the tradeoff for having open source. You know, I think it's so wild what a blind spot the open source community has to open source money. And to be fair, a lot of the people in Bitcoin are fairly blind to the free software and Linux community as well. But I'd say it's more pronounced and it's more embarrassing on the Linux side.

754
00:53:52,917 --> 00:54:01,977
Imagine being a free software advocate and all about software sovereignty and having domain over your own software and all the patches you make to it.

755
00:54:02,277 --> 00:54:15,537
And, you know, just the heady concepts that Richard Stallman wrapped his head around and then communicated to a community that embodied those ideals and went off and built the most successful projects in software history.

756
00:54:15,897 --> 00:54:19,257
And they do not recognize it when it's happening on the money side.

757
00:54:19,817 --> 00:54:22,897
It's truly revealing about the nature of human beings.

758
00:54:23,457 --> 00:54:24,337
It's really something.

759
00:54:25,097 --> 00:54:25,817
Great boost.

760
00:54:26,417 --> 00:54:27,137
Thank you, Kiwi.

761
00:54:27,217 --> 00:54:27,997
It's good to hear from you.

762
00:54:28,657 --> 00:54:31,477
Ace Ackerman rounds us out with a row of ducks.

763
00:54:33,017 --> 00:54:35,997
I'd rather have JPEGs than censorship over time.

764
00:54:36,097 --> 00:54:38,317
I think Bitcoin's use case is money wins out big time.

765
00:54:38,697 --> 00:54:43,557
And we shouldn't underestimate the value of storing other information in a censorship resistant way.

766
00:54:44,177 --> 00:54:46,037
That's some nice long-term thinking.

767
00:54:46,237 --> 00:54:46,957
I like that.

768
00:54:47,717 --> 00:54:48,277
Thank you, Ace.

769
00:54:48,277 --> 00:54:51,297
I also got a bunch of great boosts under the 2,000 sat cutoff.

770
00:54:51,677 --> 00:54:52,977
Thank you, everybody who boosts in.

771
00:54:53,017 --> 00:54:56,057
I'm reading those, and I store those in every single show note.

772
00:54:56,417 --> 00:54:59,617
I just stick to 2,000 sats and above for time on the show.

773
00:55:00,117 --> 00:55:01,677
Really do appreciate all the boosts,

774
00:55:01,697 --> 00:55:05,157
and all of you who stream them sats coming at us right now.

775
00:55:05,357 --> 00:55:07,697
We had 40 of you stream sats,

776
00:55:08,117 --> 00:55:12,737
and collectively you stacked 34,440 sats.

777
00:55:12,897 --> 00:55:14,357
When you combine that with our boosters,

778
00:55:14,357 --> 00:55:22,277
It's not our craziest week, but it's a humbly adequate week at 186,454 sats.

779
00:55:27,197 --> 00:55:27,997
You know what?

780
00:55:28,077 --> 00:55:29,397
I'm actually going to take that.

781
00:55:29,697 --> 00:55:36,937
I think we would have broken 200,000 sats had last week's episode, episode 72, had been better.

782
00:55:37,637 --> 00:55:38,997
Just don't think it was a great episode.

783
00:55:39,097 --> 00:55:40,257
It's just a mix of the news.

784
00:55:40,977 --> 00:55:42,037
You know, it just sometimes happens.

785
00:55:42,037 --> 00:55:43,777
Maybe it was my headspace.

786
00:55:44,357 --> 00:55:45,397
I don't think it was a banger.

787
00:55:45,597 --> 00:55:47,637
So I really put it all in on this episode.

788
00:55:47,777 --> 00:55:50,197
Like this is, I mean, this is a big one.

789
00:55:50,237 --> 00:55:51,557
And I really did a lot of work.

790
00:55:51,637 --> 00:55:52,857
So hopefully you got some value.

791
00:55:53,037 --> 00:55:55,337
If you did, boost in to support the show.

792
00:56:03,757 --> 00:56:07,037
Fountain.fm makes it real easy because they host the Lightning Wallet.

793
00:56:07,037 --> 00:56:10,277
But you can go the self-hosted route with something like Umbral or Start9.

794
00:56:10,397 --> 00:56:11,457
And then you set up AlbiHub.

795
00:56:11,457 --> 00:56:15,177
Then you can boost with a bunch of different apps and the podcast index.

796
00:56:15,417 --> 00:56:19,957
Thank you everybody who supports the show with a boost or a Jupiter party or Fountain membership.

797
00:56:20,257 --> 00:56:21,937
You can become a member on Fountain.

798
00:56:22,157 --> 00:56:28,417
There's a new membership program over there where you get access to early releases and special features as well as a membership badge.

799
00:56:28,617 --> 00:56:30,177
That's built right into the app.

800
00:56:30,377 --> 00:56:34,417
And the cool thing is you can pay with sats or you can pay with fiat.

801
00:56:34,417 --> 00:56:42,197
Just a reminder, though, if you become a Fountain member and you pay with sats, you do need to top up your wallet from time to time.

802
00:56:42,737 --> 00:56:48,917
One of the things I'm seeing is a couple of you out there are dropping off because you haven't topped off your sats in your Fountain wallet.

803
00:56:49,617 --> 00:56:52,537
It's one of the things we have to work out with a Lightning membership system.

804
00:56:52,537 --> 00:57:04,157
It's one of the things we as a community are experimenting and pushing forward right now with Fountain is how to do membership exclusive content and creator support with a membership program using Lightning.

805
00:57:05,137 --> 00:57:06,457
Nobody's ever really done this before.

806
00:57:06,737 --> 00:57:11,577
So one of the things we're finding is you do have to keep your wallet topped off if you go that route.

807
00:57:11,637 --> 00:57:13,277
You can also use Fiat if you prefer.

808
00:57:13,877 --> 00:57:15,237
And that's one of the ways you can support the show.

809
00:57:15,337 --> 00:57:17,117
Or you can go over to jupiter.party.

810
00:57:17,937 --> 00:57:21,377
That's our membership program over there for the whole Jupyter Broadcasting Network.

811
00:57:21,837 --> 00:57:24,177
Still working out how Twib fits in over there.

812
00:57:24,217 --> 00:57:25,717
I'll be fully frank with you about that.

813
00:57:25,757 --> 00:57:26,837
I haven't really figured it out yet.

814
00:57:27,397 --> 00:57:28,817
But it does support the show and the whole network.

815
00:57:28,817 --> 00:57:29,837
That's jupiter.party.

816
00:57:34,417 --> 00:57:49,897
Well, I've been watching something play out that I'm cautiously looking through the lens of Bitcoin mining sustainability.

817
00:57:50,557 --> 00:57:51,317
Easy for me to say.

818
00:57:51,677 --> 00:57:59,317
The story that I think is potentially concerning for Bitcoin miners down the road is the growing cost of electricity today.

819
00:57:59,317 --> 00:58:05,457
today. Now, this is a story that I think isn't getting much attention so far, but you're going

820
00:58:05,457 --> 00:58:10,017
to see it explode over just the next couple of months because some new data has come out.

821
00:58:10,477 --> 00:58:17,857
And that is that the growth in electricity costs has outpaced the growth of inflation. In other

822
00:58:17,857 --> 00:58:25,297
words, it's almost parabolic on the price charts. Electricity has become in 2025, and they're

823
00:58:25,297 --> 00:58:30,797
starting to put a real pinch on family budgets. And it turns out that the investment firm VanEck

824
00:58:30,797 --> 00:58:34,817
has a podcast. And one of their guys has been cooking up numbers looking at this,

825
00:58:35,137 --> 00:58:39,337
has a report. So they brought him onto the podcast to talk a little bit about it.

826
00:58:39,337 --> 00:58:46,237
And it shows with no doubt, energy prices are certainly outpacing inflation by a margin.

827
00:58:47,237 --> 00:58:51,257
Are you worried about what this does to electricity? Talking about how quickly

828
00:58:51,257 --> 00:58:55,637
the cost of electricity has gone up. And I think this is a very underreported story.

829
00:58:55,777 --> 00:59:01,617
We have a chart from you showing the cost of electricity versus CPI. And all of this AI stuff,

830
00:59:01,677 --> 00:59:04,637
is this going to push us up even further? I think there are a couple of implications.

831
00:59:04,637 --> 00:59:09,597
So number one, we talk about, well, there's the macro implications, right? I don't know if you

832
00:59:09,597 --> 00:59:14,317
guys think that inflation is going to 2%. I just don't think that's likely to happen, right? And

833
00:59:14,317 --> 00:59:19,417
here's another example of something that's running way ahead of this. And if electrification is another

834
00:59:19,417 --> 00:59:24,137
decade-long trend. There's no way electricity prices are staying flat because if you look at

835
00:59:24,137 --> 00:59:28,337
these trends, that's why we're rushing to build nuclear reactors and all that kind of stuff.

836
00:59:28,437 --> 00:59:32,797
Yeah. I mean, we need more electricity in the US. That's not a secret, right? We've been talking

837
00:59:32,797 --> 00:59:38,437
about the winners from this sort of second phase of investing in AI and what we've pointed to is

838
00:59:38,437 --> 00:59:44,737
nuclear and natural gas. Nuclear because we just need it and people want environmentally clean

839
00:59:44,737 --> 00:59:50,557
electricity and natural gas because it's quick. Now, the real story here is a little more complicated

840
00:59:50,557 --> 00:59:54,717
as typical, right? Because they're measuring this against the CPI number. Well, we know the CPI

841
00:59:54,717 --> 01:00:00,157
number is bogus. Energy prices are in part reflecting the true inflation in that sector,

842
01:00:00,157 --> 01:00:06,957
but you can't rule out the increase in demand. It's real. And today it's AI. As the bubble is

843
01:00:06,957 --> 01:00:10,977
really kind of at its key moment right now, that build out is really happening. Eventually that

844
01:00:10,977 --> 01:00:15,817
hype will settle down. We'll end up with practical applications. They remain. But this hype, this

845
01:00:15,817 --> 01:00:21,017
driver will fade and then everyone will pretend like the mania never happened. But it leaves one

846
01:00:21,017 --> 01:00:26,837
to wonder, what if the next boom, what if there's demand for something more concrete? What if there's

847
01:00:26,837 --> 01:00:32,277
demand for something that's the opposite of fiat? What if there's demand for more Bitcoin build out?

848
01:00:33,317 --> 01:00:39,077
Call it a post-AI fiat rejection. And we see a rush of bigger money into Bitcoin mining.

849
01:00:39,077 --> 01:00:49,897
Even if this never happened and we just see Bitcoin mining continue to grow, how might a boom in that sector or the growth of the Bitcoin mining sector be viewed and discussed by the public?

850
01:00:50,477 --> 01:00:57,417
And I think we can use what's happening with AI and the discussion around its power usage as a way to prepare ourselves.

851
01:00:58,117 --> 01:01:03,157
Electricity prices are surging more than twice as fast as the inflation rate.

852
01:01:03,157 --> 01:01:08,957
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices have gone up 5.5% this year.

853
01:01:09,077 --> 01:01:16,317
One reason for the increase? The power needed for massive data centers are fueling the artificial intelligence boom.

854
01:01:16,797 --> 01:01:21,177
Texas alone is home to 463 AI data centers.

855
01:01:21,617 --> 01:01:26,077
Research shows that one in six households are behind on paying their energy bills.

856
01:01:26,517 --> 01:01:29,577
That's about $24 billion in utility debt.

857
01:01:29,917 --> 01:01:35,217
Yikes, $24 billion in outstanding utility debt. That's, oof, that ain't good, right?

858
01:01:35,217 --> 01:01:42,857
I think Bitcoiner should be thankful that AI is taking these arrows right now because this is a narrative that could be easily turned on Bitcoin.

859
01:01:43,637 --> 01:01:47,057
And the reality is a lot more complex than this narrative makes it sound.

860
01:01:47,837 --> 01:01:49,857
Of course, increased demand is there.

861
01:01:49,937 --> 01:01:51,657
I'm not ignoring that.

862
01:01:52,277 --> 01:01:58,137
But this framing, this narrative also ignores the reality, the real numbers of inflation.

863
01:01:58,377 --> 01:02:02,557
It ignores 40 years of chronic lack of investment in infrastructure.

864
01:02:02,557 --> 01:02:06,877
right all of that isn't factored and it's just AI AI is using a lot of power

865
01:02:06,877 --> 01:02:10,237
therefore it's bad and they could easily turn that around on Bitcoin it's

866
01:02:10,237 --> 01:02:13,917
something to really watch out for and I think we're gonna see more and more public

867
01:02:13,969 --> 01:02:18,449
backlash to AI technologies, which is probably going to create the headwinds that slows the hype

868
01:02:18,449 --> 01:02:24,069
roll down, potentially. Now, your buddy Tom Lee is trying to make it up to you. He knows that

869
01:02:24,069 --> 01:02:30,469
you're upset with him for talking about Ethereum so dang much. So he went on CNBC to try to get

870
01:02:30,469 --> 01:02:36,949
your love back. Tell us what you think. We're at about $111,000. The upside, the downside from here.

871
01:02:37,989 --> 01:02:42,829
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are super sensitive to monetary policy.

872
01:02:43,469 --> 01:02:46,409
So I think that September 17th is an important catalyst.

873
01:02:47,049 --> 01:02:50,049
Crypto typically does really well in the fourth quarter.

874
01:02:50,189 --> 01:02:53,789
So I think Bitcoin can easily get to 200,000 before year end.

875
01:02:53,869 --> 01:02:54,629
I know it's a big move.

876
01:02:54,689 --> 01:02:55,469
It's almost a double.

877
01:02:56,189 --> 01:02:57,969
But that's also going to be a double from here.

878
01:02:58,129 --> 01:02:58,989
Let's just hold on.

879
01:02:59,029 --> 01:03:00,289
Let's just take a quick pause.

880
01:03:00,769 --> 01:03:01,889
A double from here.

881
01:03:01,989 --> 01:03:03,189
So everybody's listening to this.

882
01:03:03,189 --> 01:03:04,669
We're at $111,000.

883
01:03:05,009 --> 01:03:09,529
And you think by Christmas time, effectively, we could be at 200,000?

884
01:03:10,309 --> 01:03:10,989
That's right.

885
01:03:10,989 --> 01:03:15,289
One of the reasons Bitcoin stalled this year is the Fed's been on pause for nine months.

886
01:03:16,089 --> 01:03:20,949
That pause all year, if you look at an easing cycle, that's only happened two other times.

887
01:03:21,109 --> 01:03:26,589
In 1998 and 2024, where the Fed began to resume cuts in the fourth quarter in September.

888
01:03:27,529 --> 01:03:28,829
Equities do really well.

889
01:03:29,589 --> 01:03:32,109
I mean, I like that he's saying Bitcoin could be at $200,000 by Christmas.

890
01:03:32,229 --> 01:03:32,889
That's just fun.

891
01:03:33,569 --> 01:03:37,549
But I hate this narrative that Bitcoin only pumps when rates are low.

892
01:03:37,549 --> 01:03:41,569
because we've just spent two years proving that wrong.

893
01:03:42,269 --> 01:03:44,389
And then Tom goes, before the rates have even been cut,

894
01:03:44,789 --> 01:03:46,469
Tom goes and starts using that narrative again,

895
01:03:46,529 --> 01:03:48,109
which you know guys like Andrew just run with.

896
01:03:48,829 --> 01:03:51,749
And then he says Bitcoin stalled out this year?

897
01:03:52,369 --> 01:03:53,149
Stalled out?

898
01:03:53,769 --> 01:03:56,149
Bitcoin's up around 50% in 2025.

899
01:03:56,449 --> 01:03:57,789
And he calls that stalling out.

900
01:03:57,789 --> 01:04:01,589
By the way, Tom, Ethereum is up, if I'm generous,

901
01:04:01,829 --> 01:04:04,349
about 30.7% in 2025.

902
01:04:04,849 --> 01:04:05,909
Bitcoin's up over 50%.

903
01:04:05,909 --> 01:04:12,989
50%. Ethereum's around 30%. Okay. And let's look at Tom's ETF, Granny Shots. He has an ETF that he

904
01:04:12,989 --> 01:04:19,189
manages and sells called Granny Shots. That's up around 19% in 2025. Not bad for Wall Street,

905
01:04:19,529 --> 01:04:28,109
but not close to Bitcoin. Tom, stalling out. Whatever. Although I'd be happy to take 200k

906
01:04:28,109 --> 01:04:34,429
by Christmas. That'd be great. An appropriations bill in Congress is requiring the Treasury to

907
01:04:34,429 --> 01:04:41,929
report on the strategic Bitcoin reserve. How about this? They are seeking information on how Bitcoin

908
01:04:41,929 --> 01:04:46,489
will, quote, appear on the federal government's balance sheet. And of course, a key focus of this

909
01:04:46,489 --> 01:04:51,969
report is understanding how these reserves would interact with the existing forfeiture fund,

910
01:04:52,249 --> 01:04:56,489
something I would like to know very much, which currently manages these assets that have been

911
01:04:56,489 --> 01:05:01,309
seized by the federal agencies. How is that going to work? Also, they want to know the plans for

912
01:05:01,309 --> 01:05:05,529
custody and the security plans around there. This is interesting because some are speculating,

913
01:05:05,729 --> 01:05:10,849
why would they be asking for this unless they are going to proceed with establishing the Bitcoin

914
01:05:10,849 --> 01:05:16,349
strategic reserve? And I still think they are, even if it's just moving the menial amount of

915
01:05:16,349 --> 01:05:21,149
coins that they have, menial in the government adoption sense. I think they'll have that.

916
01:05:21,149 --> 01:05:26,309
In Central Asia, the president of the Republic of Kazakhstan has laid out plans just on Monday for

917
01:05:26,309 --> 01:05:30,309
the country's crypto endeavors, including a strategic reserve that will include Bitcoin

918
01:05:30,309 --> 01:05:31,309
and other assets.

919
01:05:31,689 --> 01:05:35,929
Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the Congress there in August was considering a proposal

920
01:05:35,929 --> 01:05:41,829
to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve of up to 10,000 Bitcoin, which would make it

921
01:05:41,829 --> 01:05:45,549
the first country in Southeast Asia to adopt Bitcoin as a strategic asset.

922
01:05:46,129 --> 01:05:53,189
Currently, countries holding Bitcoin in their respective reserves exceeds 517,000 Bitcoin,

923
01:05:53,189 --> 01:06:10,281
amounting to 2 if that number is correct 2 of Bitcoin total supply That was numbers that was put together by Bitbo So that would be if their numbers are correct And it looks mostly accurate to me

924
01:06:11,261 --> 01:06:12,601
Link to that in the show notes.

925
01:06:13,421 --> 01:06:17,181
Albi has released a lightning report for us for the first half of 2025.

926
01:06:17,801 --> 01:06:22,141
They say there were 7,626 lightning channels opened.

927
01:06:22,141 --> 01:06:25,861
There was 197 Bitcoin in liquidity deployed.

928
01:06:26,421 --> 01:06:28,381
Their largest channel is 5 Bitcoin.

929
01:06:28,381 --> 01:06:32,161
and there are currently four LSPs available to AlbiHub users.

930
01:06:32,861 --> 01:06:34,581
I'll link to that. It's great to see.

931
01:06:35,521 --> 01:06:39,321
Well, it seems Paper Bitcoin Summer has come to an end this week

932
01:06:39,321 --> 01:06:41,321
when MicroStrategy holders got the news

933
01:06:41,321 --> 01:06:44,781
that Strategy would not be included in the S&P 500.

934
01:06:45,361 --> 01:06:46,921
And well, kidding aside,

935
01:06:47,201 --> 01:06:49,161
I think that would have been a major moment for Bitcoin.

936
01:06:49,721 --> 01:06:51,501
Block is already in the S&P 500,

937
01:06:51,641 --> 01:06:54,801
but Strategy, well, they're a genre-defining company

938
01:06:54,801 --> 01:06:57,541
and that would have really been a massive statement.

939
01:06:58,141 --> 01:07:02,301
So Saylor was asked about not getting included this week, and this was his response.

940
01:07:02,861 --> 01:07:09,461
You mentioned that you bought $250 million this morning, or $217 million this morning as you walked in.

941
01:07:10,061 --> 01:07:12,601
What's your dollar cost average for what you've paid for Bitcoin?

942
01:07:12,601 --> 01:07:14,481
About $73,000 a coin.

943
01:07:14,481 --> 01:07:35,541
And I guess I wonder if you think Standard & Poor's or others or, you know, if anybody has any sort of bias towards crypto still at this point, because the S&P 500 just came out with their decisions and they chose to go with Robinhood and Apple Oven over strategy.

944
01:07:35,541 --> 01:07:48,361
A lot of people were kind of surprised by that. The stock actually was down a little bit. Do you think that there is a bias at any of the indexes or any places that come through this against a company with a lot of Bitcoin and holdings?

945
01:07:48,361 --> 01:08:13,601
I don't think there's a bias. I don't think we expect it to be selected on our first quarter of eligibility. We figure it'll happen at some time. There's a digital transformation in the markets. This is a brand new novel concept. Every quarter, we make new believers. We get more support from banks, from politicians, from credit rating agencies, etc. I think that will continue for the foreseeable future.

946
01:08:18,361 --> 01:08:28,421
And that brings us to our final clip of the week.

947
01:08:29,141 --> 01:08:36,321
This is one of those clips that's looking many years down the road after everything we've talked about today reaches its near final state.

948
01:08:37,021 --> 01:08:40,861
And it's Mel Madison, and he's a writer and financial services veteran.

949
01:08:40,941 --> 01:08:43,541
He's been around for a while, and he went on Pomp's podcast.

950
01:08:43,741 --> 01:08:44,921
I'll put a link to it in the show notes.

951
01:08:45,461 --> 01:08:46,821
I think it was actually a pretty good chat.

952
01:08:46,821 --> 01:08:49,981
And I want to play for you one of my favorite moments.

953
01:08:50,441 --> 01:08:54,741
I think over time, we're going to see central banks put Bitcoin on their balance sheet.

954
01:08:54,941 --> 01:08:56,201
I don't know when that happens.

955
01:08:56,341 --> 01:08:58,061
I don't know if it happens next year.

956
01:08:58,441 --> 01:09:02,281
But the amount of money we're talking about with central banks, right?

957
01:09:02,681 --> 01:09:08,481
Trillions upon trillions of dollars, like 10, 20, 30, 40x the current Bitcoin market cap.

958
01:09:08,481 --> 01:09:15,701
like just a little bit of that is going to be i think a fundamental driver just like a major

959
01:09:15,701 --> 01:09:20,141
fundamental driver of the gold move in the last few years has been central banks issuing treasuries

960
01:09:20,141 --> 01:09:25,921
and going to gold eventually they're doing it we're seeing corporations begin to put bitcoin

961
01:09:25,921 --> 01:09:30,761
on their balance sheet and i think there will there will come a point in time because i don't

962
01:09:30,761 --> 01:09:35,621
think there really is an alternative to bitcoin i i mean i mean people can talk about ethereum and

963
01:09:35,621 --> 01:09:41,621
the flippening. Ethereum can have a period where it outperforms, just like gold can outperform.

964
01:09:41,621 --> 01:09:47,221
I mean, shoot, Carvana stock can outperform Bitcoin for a period of time. Anything can

965
01:09:47,221 --> 01:10:06,353
outperform anything for a period of time But Bitcoin is unique Bitcoin is the first Bitcoin is the biggest Bitcoin has that hard cap Bitcoin is decentralized Bitcoin has a moat Bitcoin has the network It has the thousands if not millions of nodes around that make it functional

966
01:10:06,553 --> 01:10:08,013
It has the history.

967
01:10:08,733 --> 01:10:11,453
It has the cost to produce it.

968
01:10:11,653 --> 01:10:15,113
You know, it can't just be willed into existence by an Ethereum foundation.

969
01:10:16,393 --> 01:10:19,373
All of these things are just very unique.

970
01:10:19,373 --> 01:10:22,953
It will not be replaced in our lifetimes, I believe.

971
01:10:33,353 --> 01:10:35,833
Time to check in on the state of the network.

972
01:10:35,933 --> 01:10:39,373
I'm wrapping up at block height 914,117.

973
01:10:40,173 --> 01:10:44,853
The current Bitcoin price to U.S. dollar, $113,800.

974
01:10:44,853 --> 01:10:50,533
That puts the sats per dollar at 879 sats to one U.S. dollar.

975
01:10:51,193 --> 01:10:54,133
We are currently down 8.6% from our all-time high.

976
01:10:54,293 --> 01:10:59,813
We're climbing back up to 124,460, which was 27 days ago.

977
01:11:00,533 --> 01:11:02,193
That was August 13, 2025.

978
01:11:03,093 --> 01:11:06,373
We're on schedule for a difficulty retarget of September 18,

979
01:11:06,613 --> 01:11:10,853
with an estimated difficulty change of an upward adjustment of 7.6%.

980
01:11:11,413 --> 01:11:13,693
And now the number I always look forward to.

981
01:11:13,693 --> 01:11:18,993
We're almost to my goal. Reachable Bitcoin notes, 23,464.

982
01:11:19,333 --> 01:11:24,013
When I come back with a new episode, I'd love to see that be at a solid 24,000.

983
01:11:25,653 --> 01:11:32,153
Bitcoin Noughts 2025, 305, currently operating at 15.4% of the network.

984
01:11:32,813 --> 01:11:37,073
Now, Bitcoin Noughts' number is getting spread across because we have a new Noughts release.

985
01:11:37,073 --> 01:11:45,953
Bitcoin knots 2025 903, which came out on the third, is now at 3.2% of the network already.

986
01:11:47,033 --> 01:11:48,753
Of course, Core 30 is due anytime soon.

987
01:11:48,853 --> 01:11:49,933
It'll be interesting to watch.

988
01:11:51,173 --> 01:11:53,933
I think, you know, first week or two of October, we should see Core 30.

989
01:11:53,993 --> 01:11:57,493
It'll be interesting to watch how its numbers do.

990
01:11:58,033 --> 01:12:01,193
I would imagine they're going to, I'm thinking they're not going to let them do badly.

991
01:12:01,353 --> 01:12:02,073
That's my thinking.

992
01:12:02,733 --> 01:12:04,513
There's going to be an effort to make sure they don't do badly.

993
01:12:04,513 --> 01:12:09,133
Either way, the network is chugging right along, transactions are happening,

994
01:12:09,573 --> 01:12:14,333
block space is becoming precious, and the Bitcoin network is strong.

995
01:12:14,333 --> 01:12:35,653
if you made it this far just a reminder i'm traveling next week but i have an episode for

996
01:12:35,653 --> 01:12:42,693
you in the can my chat with oscar will be coming out so don't miss episode 74 if something big

997
01:12:42,693 --> 01:12:46,533
happens with the rate cuts, I'll break in with a quick episode if anything major goes down.

998
01:12:47,193 --> 01:12:52,293
And don't forget, I'm hoping you'll boost so we don't have a lull in support. I have two questions

999
01:12:52,293 --> 01:12:58,553
for you. Was Trump right? I think he might have been. J-Pow was probably too late. But I also,

1000
01:12:58,653 --> 01:13:05,133
I don't blame the Fed or J-Pow. Can you guess why? Boost in with your answer. And question number two,

1001
01:13:05,693 --> 01:13:10,614
did you stack sats this summer while you were stacking summer? Did you DCA? Did you snipe by?

1002
01:13:10,614 --> 01:13:12,633
or did you have to pass?

1003
01:13:13,273 --> 01:13:15,073
Did you have to pass on stacking sats?

1004
01:13:15,273 --> 01:13:17,153
That's a valid answer too, and I'd like to hear it.

1005
01:13:17,813 --> 01:13:20,593
Links to what I talked about are at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

1006
01:13:20,673 --> 01:13:21,893
That'll take you to Jupiter Broadcasting

1007
01:13:21,893 --> 01:13:22,993
where you can find our other shows.

1008
01:13:23,673 --> 01:13:25,933
My goal here is to try to create something

1009
01:13:25,933 --> 01:13:28,413
that doesn't get us distracted by the emotions

1010
01:13:28,413 --> 01:13:29,893
or the politics around what's happening,

1011
01:13:30,273 --> 01:13:31,593
but really focuses on the signal

1012
01:13:31,593 --> 01:13:33,133
and how it applies to Bitcoiners.

1013
01:13:33,413 --> 01:13:35,493
So let me know how I did with a boost, good or bad.

1014
01:13:35,733 --> 01:13:37,933
And of course, I'd love to know if I missed something,

1015
01:13:38,233 --> 01:13:40,013
if you'd like to see something included in the show,

1016
01:13:40,013 --> 01:13:42,513
or if you have additional thoughts on anything I talked about.

1017
01:13:43,033 --> 01:13:54,026
It always a great reason to send me a boost This week our Value for Value track was performed live in Amsterdam by Theo Katzmann If you boost in 95 of the sats go to the artist and this is from his

1018
01:13:54,026 --> 01:13:59,546
2024 album Live from the Other Side. Here is Hard Work by Theo Katzmann.

1019
01:14:13,206 --> 01:14:18,206
I caught your tear jobs with my shoulder when you got it

1020
01:14:19,106 --> 01:14:24,106
I called in sick so I could comfort you all night

1021
01:14:25,106 --> 01:14:30,106
Now you got cold heat, well just let me breathe the ice, yeah

1022
01:14:31,006 --> 01:14:35,706
I did your laundry and I folded it real nice

1023
01:14:35,806 --> 01:14:37,106
So just be one

1024
01:14:37,206 --> 01:14:39,106
I put tears in my heart, whoa

1025
01:14:39,106 --> 01:14:43,026
Now I'm defeated face down in the dirt

1026
01:14:43,026 --> 01:14:45,026
I'm moved in the heartburn

1027
01:14:45,026 --> 01:14:48,946
And I can't seem to get out of this earth

1028
01:14:48,946 --> 01:14:51,026
I'm moved in the heartburn

1029
01:14:51,026 --> 01:14:54,866
If it's too dirty, you get what you deserve

1030
01:14:54,866 --> 01:14:56,706
I'm moved in the heartburn

1031
01:14:56,706 --> 01:14:59,986
Then baby, why don't I'm moved in the heartburn

1032
01:15:00,866 --> 01:15:05,266
I held your hair back when you had too much to do

1033
01:15:05,266 --> 01:15:11,126
I use my bare hands to uncloud that best girl saying

1034
01:15:11,126 --> 01:15:17,106
When you got thinkers and your mind was all the great

1035
01:15:17,106 --> 01:15:22,906
I feel you by the floor and show you to be a shrink

1036
01:15:22,906 --> 01:15:26,126
Come on baby, I'm 13, Oklahoma

1037
01:15:26,126 --> 01:15:30,326
Now I'm defeated, it's down in the dirt

1038
01:15:30,326 --> 01:15:32,066
I'm 13, Oklahoma

1039
01:15:32,066 --> 01:15:36,026
And I can't seem to have a vision

1040
01:15:36,026 --> 01:15:38,266
I put in the hardwood

1041
01:15:38,266 --> 01:15:41,146
If it's too much to give up

1042
01:15:41,146 --> 01:15:44,026
Baby, I put in the hardwood

1043
01:15:44,026 --> 01:15:45,126
Baby, why?

1044
01:15:45,126 --> 01:15:47,186
I put in the hardwood

1045
01:15:47,186 --> 01:15:56,046
I put in the hardwood

1046
01:15:56,046 --> 01:16:04,206
I know it's painful to become a butterfly

1047
01:16:04,206 --> 01:16:10,286
You have to break yourself before your wings can die

1048
01:16:10,286 --> 01:16:16,206
But still I wonder when I look up at the sky

1049
01:16:16,206 --> 01:16:19,246
Are you wrong with the same hair?

1050
01:16:19,246 --> 01:16:22,366
Now when it's low, you're going to die

1051
01:16:22,366 --> 01:16:25,326
I put in the hard work

1052
01:16:25,326 --> 01:16:28,286
I put in the hard work, yeah

1053
01:16:29,286 --> 01:16:31,526
I put in the hard work

1054
01:16:31,526 --> 01:16:35,286
No, I can't see the point out of this now

1055
01:16:35,286 --> 01:16:37,366
I put in the hard work

1056
01:16:37,366 --> 01:16:40,726
If it's too much I can't find you

1057
01:16:40,726 --> 01:16:43,206
I put in the hard work

1058
01:16:43,206 --> 01:16:46,606
If you have what I could do to deserve this

1059
01:16:46,606 --> 01:16:49,286
Just I put in the hard work

1060
01:16:52,366 --> 01:17:22,346
guitar solo

1061
01:17:22,366 --> 01:17:39,386
We'll see you next time.