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Welcome in to This Week in Bitcoin, episode 106.

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My name is Chris, chrislas.com, jupiterbroadcasting.com.

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In 10 years, they'll say holding Bitcoin was so easy.

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You got rich the easy way.

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They won't know what it felt like to be 232 days from an all-time high, while all the tech bro assets just rip.

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Takes a special breed to stay convicted, to hold and even stack sats during these times. Seriously.

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But how long could this last? If you've been feeling the pressure, this episode might help you a little bit.

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Why is the stock market ripping when Bitcoin is dipping?

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I thought it followed liquidity, Chris. I thought it followed M2.

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Well, that's what I'm going to try to answer today, is what's going on with Bitcoin and a rough idea of how long we should expect it to be like this.

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and you know i am terminally online for purposes of show research always kind of

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checking the temperature across the various bitcoin communities online from stacker news

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bitcoin talk reddit x nostr mastodon you name it and of course every community has their signals

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and X is a total disaster zone right now.

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I mean, the sentiment on X in the Bitcoin community

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is the lowest I've ever seen it ever, I think.

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I mean, lower than I've seen it post FTX, definitely.

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Noster, for the most part,

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seems to be the most positive.

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People are still over there focused on building,

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like most Bitcoiners have been around for a while too.

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But I understand where it's coming from

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because nothing frustrates Bitcoin holders

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more than watching every other market pump

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while Bitcoin just keeps bleeding patience and hope.

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You keep wanting, especially if you've just bought in in the last year or two,

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you keep wanting for that rip to happen.

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And instead, you're watching AI stocks take off

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while your Bitcoin just sort of treads water and overall trends downward.

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And it doesn't help that guys like Mark Cuban are out there going around saying,

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Bitcoin has lost the plot.

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This might get some people upset.

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I think Bitcoin has lost the plot.

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And when I started buying Bitcoin and I've sold all of it,

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except not all of it, most of it. It was because when all the shit hit the fan with the Iran war

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and, you know, Bitcoin was always the best alternative to fiat currency losing its value.

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And I always thought it was a better version of gold than gold. Well, gold just blew up and went,

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you know, to $5,000, Bitcoin dropped. And every time the dollar dropped, Bitcoin should have gone

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up, you know, because if it's priced in dollars, it was cheaper. So anybody from around the world

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could go pay and off. And it just didn't do that. Not such a hedge. No, it's not the hedge that I

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expected it to be. And that was really disappointing. And so I'd say I'm more disappointed in Bitcoin,

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not as disappointed in Ethereum and the rest, you know, the token stuff, the meme coins.

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Garbage. I don't know by what metrics Mark is comparing Ethereum and Bitcoin. Ethereum will

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get to that in a moment. But like this analysis, it really does teach us something here. It teaches

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us that even billionaires don't really understand how money works. That's what we're learning.

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Mark is as much of a product of his time as he is a man of his own making.

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Does Mark think Bitcoin lives in a vacuum? Does he think a developing currency just goes up in a

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straight line or that it should perform differently and outperform an asset that's been around for

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thousands of years that people have been building trust in? So let's shift gears and let's hear from

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somebody who understands the macro picture. You know, I've always talked about Bitcoin on this show

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as a liquidity black hole. Bitcoin just sucks in the spare liquidity in the market. And the problem

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that we are having right now that started at the beginning of the year and is accelerating really

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is that there is a large celestial object with a very large gravity well in our system. And it's

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passing through right now and it's going to be passing through for a little while. It used to be

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that Bitcoin was the fastest horse in the race,

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as I believe Paul Tudor Drones

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is the one that coined that particular term.

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This is Lynn Alden, of course,

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and Lynn Alden's going to explain

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kind of what I'm talking about.

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For Bitcoin, when he got in,

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and it's been the case where like NVIDIA

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has been the fastest horse,

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and then RAM stocks and AI companies and all this.

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And so it's kind of like this either co-fastest horse

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or a new fastest horse.

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And so to some extent, it sucked capital

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out of Bitcoin or, you know, kind of the combination of Bitcoin and the broader crypto space

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said, OK, well, if we if we want high returns, AI is now an option. Obviously, you can't self-custody

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in the same way. It doesn't have the same properties, but from a pure kind of portfolio

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allocation standard, it has been a pretty big competitor. I would say it's not only a competitor,

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it's a safe bet in a way that no other asset is. Right now, it's a safe bet because the savvy

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investors think that there is no way that the Federal Reserve, the Treasury, the Trump White

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House, and the players that be at the banks are going to let the market collapse right now,

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especially as we're building up to these three different IPOs we're going to talk about.

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I think they're betting that there is an insurance policy at play. There's always going to be a

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bailout that with the debts at the level they are, the rates at the level they are, that the

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government simply cannot afford a massive stock market crash, and therefore, the PAMP will continue.

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I think it did contribute a non-zero amount to maybe the latest disappointing cycle.

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And then when we get into payments, I do think that AIs will use Bitcoin as payments.

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And there are already a number of wallet providers that are gearing some of their services more

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toward agentic payments. I think in the near term, stablecoins will probably take more market share

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than many, say, kind of Bitcoin proponents would like.

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Because if you're an AI and you're kind of doing a function,

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you're kind of saying, okay, this is like my working capital.

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I'm not trying to store value for five to 10 years

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and put up with the volatility

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and be totally kind of censorship resistant.

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Instead, if I'm doing something that is probably allowed

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and I'm more like, okay, I have like a month of working capital.

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I don't want that to draw down 30%.

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I'm not trying to make investment calls.

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They might just stick with stable coins.

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And it also depends on what their human operators kind of expect them to do.

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So I think that, you know, digital payments in general, agents will get more and more heavily involved in them.

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And then it depends on what the agent needs.

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Is it trying to hold capital for the longer term?

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Is it trying to make a payment that is a higher risk of being blocked in some way?

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Or is it more kind of prioritizing for working capital?

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So I think there's kind of multiple types of monies for multiple types of purposes.

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Now, the thing that doesn't come up when people talk about agentic use cases for Bitcoin, just as a quick aside here, and maybe because the volumes aren't going to be, you know, in the in the trillions or whatever, but it's going to be wealth management.

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I know it sounds crazy right now, but in the future, people are going to task their agents to build multi-sig setups for their family, to move and swap funds around, to add collateral to loans, to execute auto buys and sells.

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All of that is going to be agentic, and they're going to use Bitcoin for that.

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And I will follow up on that in the update segment.

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But getting back to this large gravity well, I think as the financial situation becomes more uncertain and the political situation, remember, we're going into a midterms, becomes more uncertain.

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These investors see this AI bet as the only sure bet.

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And anything that's going to work is going to be where the money is going to go right now.

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So right now, investors around the world and all the fools on Robinhood and whatnot are gearing up for the three largest IPOs in market history.

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These three IPOs are going to be ginormous liquidity vacuums.

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For the most part, we'll probably end up being exits for the early investors, but that's a whole other conversation.

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It is going to be the distraction of the year.

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SpaceX officially kicking off the race to the public markets with its S1 filing last night.

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As we're getting new details about Anthropic and OpenAI, Kate Rooney has more in today's Tech Check.

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Hi, Kate.

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Hey there, Kelly.

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So OpenAI is preparing to file for an IPO confidentially as soon as Friday and looking to go public as soon as September.

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This is according to a source familiar with that deal process.

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It would follow this record-breaking SpaceX listing you've been talking about with its own AI business, XAI.

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I'm also told by sources that rival Anthropic has been getting IPO ready behind the scenes, but TBD there on timing.

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It's a little bit more fluid.

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OpenAI, though.

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All right.

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So we have SpaceX with a target market cap of $1.5 trillion.

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OpenAI with a valuation of $852 billion.

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And Anthropic with a valuation of $900 billion.

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So the target dates are June for SpaceX.

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and then as soon as September for OpenAI

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and a target IPO date of just Q4 for Anthropic.

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But by my math, that means the rest of the year,

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it's going to be all about these massive, ginormous, crazy IPOs.

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You combine that with a midterm election year,

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which is historically not great for Bitcoin,

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and uncertainty around how far and how long the market can pump

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before it's going to correct.

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And if the S&P does have a correction, that's going to be really rough for Bitcoin at this point. My prognosis is Bitcoin's going to be on sale for a while. There's a few ways this could go. You know, a lowering of the rates, the federal government formally announcing a Bitcoin reserve or passing some kind of Bitcoin reserve. These types of things would definitely be good news that would maybe turn things around a little bit for Bitcoin.

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absent these types of major narrative changing events,

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I think it's going to be a slide for a while for Bitcoin,

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perhaps the remainder of the year.

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It's hard to say.

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Generally, the one thing I do know

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is when you become certain like this,

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that's when you get surprised.

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So I could be completely wrong.

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I do know that while things are a little bit rough in Bitcoin,

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the thesis plays out,

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and the trajectory of debasement is only accelerating.

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So long-term, the Bitcoin thesis remains strong,

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And it could be that after these IPOs pass, we kind of get this AI bubble out of our system.

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I'm not saying we're going to have a massive dot-com crash, but we may start to see the market now focusing in on a couple of big winners.

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And then you kind of get your dot-com consolidation effect.

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I don't know if you're going to see a crash with that so much as perhaps the nature of the liquidity drive changes.

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And that money needs a new place to go to protect itself.

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And that very well could be when Bitcoin's moment shines again.

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Because ultimately, debasement will be the biggest trade of our lifetimes.

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But there's going to be ebbs and flows because we live in a casino now.

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We live in an economy that is always based on momentum.

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Anything that has momentum gets trades.

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And people will ride that as long as they can make money because that's what it is.

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It's about making money fast.

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It's not about protecting their future energy, time, and wealth, and building something for

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their families.

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It's about getting rich right now and good on them.

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If they know how to do it, it seems like a pretty easy way to make money for some of

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them.

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Easy for me to say, I suppose.

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But it's not what I'm about.

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I think I'd have a heart attack playing that game.

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And when I stack SATs, I'm stacking for a minimum of four years.

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So when I buy a SAT or acquire a SAT, work for a SAT, whatever it is, when that SAT comes

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in, I'm holding that thing for four years.

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And I think most people should tell themselves 10 years with maybe, you know, a little bit

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of off-gassing here and there or taking liquidity out via collateral.

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So that's, to me, it's not the end of the world if we go through the rest of this year

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and it's really bumpy for Bitcoin.

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It's going to be tough in terms of, you know, managing collateral loans for people.

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Outside of that, I don't think it's going to be that bad for Bitcoiners.

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for the other crypto.

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It's not just bad vibes.

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It's a total narrative collapse.

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Some of Ethereum's biggest proponents

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announced they've sold their entire stack.

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The guys behind the Bankless podcast,

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the Ethereum Foundation announced

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they're having troubles,

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they're leading up.

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Vitalik has been making proclamations

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about the future of Ethereum

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that are freaking out long timers.

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The ETFs have launched,

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the stables are the talk of the town,

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And yet the ETH price action has been bad for five years, essentially since the big switch to proof of stake.

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And as the Bankless boys put it, Ethereum just hasn't been putting points up on the scoreboard, whatever that means.

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So let's listen to a moment of Bankless.

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This is something I don't normally do.

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But I think this overall collapse we're seeing outside of Bitcoin is having a knock-on effect, actually a very large knock-on effect, I'll explain, to Bitcoin.

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And so I think it important to understand why the rest of the crypto market seems to be having some kind of come to Jesus reckoning where they realizing all these dreams and promises that they were sold and selling themselves

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turned out to be lies.

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They're now realizing the things

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that Bitcoiners have been saying all along

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are right.

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And also, while we listen to this clip,

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and David Hoffman talks about

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why he dumped his ETH,

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being one of the biggest proponents of ETH

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for the last five years,

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also listen and reflect on how grateful you are that satoshi walked away from bitcoin this is the

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first time we've had a bankless podcast and you are no longer holding ether so that's right from

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bankless to ethless david ethless um what why what changed your mind what happened here

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it's what laura shin said dude it's like there's not too many parts of ethereum that's focused on

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putting points on the scoreboard. I actually think that Vitalik is doing this thing where

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he's trying to maximize crops to create Ethereum as a bulwark against some of the worst possible

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futures of the world. And I think that's great. I think there's actually a part of him who's just

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adverse to growth. And the time for Vitalik to have handed over the keys to somebody who could

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take the momentum that Ethereum had in 2022 and 2023 and run with it and grow it was like back in

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2023. But he sees himself as like a protector of Ethereum's soul. And if you understand the

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trials that Vitalik had to go through navigating all the co-founder mess, you can totally

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understand and empathize with why he's doing that. But it seems that there are interests that

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prohibit are prohibitive for ethereum growth to happen and therefore eth growth to happen

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and a lot of the things that we see on ethereum like the layer twos all of the banks tokenizing

220
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money markets on ethereum all this ethereum adoption is great the ethereum network is great

221
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like lean ethereum is also great and in fact it doesn't need a valuable ether to do any of those

222
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things like which has been some of the counter arguments for ethereum for forever it's like

223
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eth is just gas and it didn't have to be that way but we needed to have leadership to think like that

224
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and push forward like that when ether wasn't gas when ether was more money back in a previous era

225
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but now like i i kind of feel there's just been so much momentum lost and i don't know how ethereum

226
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gets it back, especially when we have like a leader who's trying to protect Ethereum's

227
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crops for a thousand years and is like somewhat disinterested in growth.

228
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Oh, man, there is a mutiny aboard the ship Ethereum right now.

229
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And does this have an impact on Bitcoin?

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Yeah.

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The problem is, is that we are still associated with the wider crypto market, especially when

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it comes to some of the investors on Wall Street.

233
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Bitcoin's digital gold, Ethereum's digital silver, yada, yada, yada.

234
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oh, look at the basket of cryptocurrencies.

235
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It isn't playing out, the basket of cryptocurrencies.

236
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So sticking with Lynn Alden for a moment,

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she chatted with Archie from the Bitcoin Archive

238
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and he asked her, hey, you know, outside of Bitcoin,

239
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is crypto just dying?

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And I think Lynn nails the exact problem

241
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and what is causing this internal reckoning

242
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across all the different, I mean,

243
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boy, you want to see a real S show right now.

244
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Cordano is a mess right now.

245
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There is some leadership decisions

246
00:17:21,684 --> 00:17:22,884
that haven't been working out.

247
00:17:23,344 --> 00:17:25,964
There's people claiming that the project's about to shut down,

248
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which is not true, but that is the level of concern.

249
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And that's just one of many.

250
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Crypto sector over?

251
00:17:35,364 --> 00:17:39,124
I think so, in the sense that I define over as stagnating now,

252
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not meaning it obviously goes away tomorrow,

253
00:17:40,824 --> 00:17:43,284
but that it's no longer a growth industry.

254
00:17:44,264 --> 00:17:45,504
It never really was.

255
00:17:45,644 --> 00:17:47,224
It's just that now it's kind of being marked to market.

256
00:17:48,224 --> 00:17:49,004
And so if you kind of look at,

257
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I think you can kind of measure this

258
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in terms of narrative exhaustion.

259
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So the really early wave of altcoins

260
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was like alternatives to Bitcoin.

261
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They're saying, hey, you know,

262
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the steel main case to them is,

263
00:17:58,584 --> 00:18:00,104
hey, did we get the block size right?

264
00:18:00,424 --> 00:18:01,804
Did we get the speed right?

265
00:18:02,184 --> 00:18:03,624
Did we get the privacy settings right?

266
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Let's try it.

267
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Let's throw some alternatives at the wall

268
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and see what the market picks, right?

269
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That's kind of the early phase.

270
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Then there was the ICO one,

271
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basically saying, oh, we can just go around the SEC

272
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and issue our own securities

273
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and then get potentially sued.

274
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So that was like the second wave.

275
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then there was the d5 wave which is still a really big narrative but it's actually remarkable how

276
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compressed the initial one was so it kind of really emerged at scale in mid 2020

277
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d5 summer uh and then by late 2021 it hit its peak total locked value and still hasn't quite

278
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reclaimed that figure um five years later right so it's really only had a year and a half bull

279
00:18:43,144 --> 00:18:49,324
market and then it's just been you know four and a half five years of stagnation and as nfts as you

280
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mentioned were another narrative that kind of came soon after that was kind of a flash in the pan

281
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they still trade obviously but they're nowhere near the liquidity and size that they were

282
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then there's been a little bit of a resurgence in privacy coins for a while

283
00:19:01,304 --> 00:19:06,504
um which i think that's kind of over now uh we'll see if that you know that could have another

284
00:19:06,504 --> 00:19:12,824
round of likes to it uh meme coins had a couple attempts uh and and kind of this last cycle there

285
00:19:12,824 --> 00:19:17,304
really was no narrative the narrative was kind of meme coins um and i think that's that's almost

286
00:19:17,304 --> 00:19:21,904
like the final cycle uh where it's like you don't even pretend that there's something innovative

287
00:19:21,904 --> 00:19:27,504
here it's just like let's it's basically player versus player uh competition uh and i think just

288
00:19:27,504 --> 00:19:34,724
now people rightly kind of associate crypto with scams or scam adjacent um kind of like ponzi

289
00:19:34,724 --> 00:19:41,344
jason scam adjacent um and i think that just the overall kind of value that space is minimal i

290
00:19:41,344 --> 00:19:42,264
I think Bitcoin is valuable.

291
00:19:42,424 --> 00:19:45,644
I think stable coins are doing something for a lot of people that they want dollars.

292
00:19:45,744 --> 00:19:48,284
They want digital payment rails and dollars.

293
00:19:48,904 --> 00:19:53,624
I think there's some legs for tokenization, meaning that, you know, if you can tokenize

294
00:19:53,624 --> 00:19:58,984
gold, which people have been doing since at least 2018, you can, it's kind of like a global

295
00:19:58,984 --> 00:20:03,744
ETF in a way, you know, it's an ETF that you can have almost regardless of what country

296
00:20:03,744 --> 00:20:04,164
you're in.

297
00:20:05,264 --> 00:20:09,744
Tokenizing major stocks, you know, for people that want it, it's harder for them to get

298
00:20:09,744 --> 00:20:15,324
access to their own country and they want either an S&P 500 token or an NVIDIA token or, you know,

299
00:20:15,464 --> 00:20:22,844
but I think beyond either tokenizing a handful of those kind of real things and Bitcoin,

300
00:20:23,904 --> 00:20:28,224
I'm not really bullish. It's not really else I see that I'm bullish on or have I been bullish on.

301
00:20:28,284 --> 00:20:32,884
I think it's going to continue to stagnate. And I think Lynn's view is shared by a lot of people

302
00:20:32,884 --> 00:20:39,504
and a lot of people that invest in this stuff. Listen to Lynn. So it is it is a disaster.

303
00:20:39,744 --> 00:20:43,284
It is a disaster over in the rest of the crypto space.

304
00:20:44,044 --> 00:20:48,284
However, things are all not great in the house of Bitcoin.

305
00:20:58,904 --> 00:21:03,084
Now, this is where I fall down as a host of the show.

306
00:21:03,084 --> 00:21:06,864
You guys know that I've really struggled with BIP-110.

307
00:21:06,864 --> 00:21:15,064
For me, it's just so against everything that original Bitcoiners stood for.

308
00:21:15,604 --> 00:21:19,764
And it consolidates power in Bitcoin in a way that I find frightening.

309
00:21:20,484 --> 00:21:25,384
Now, I know they don't claim it does, but that just seems to me to be the practical implications of it, implementation of it.

310
00:21:26,764 --> 00:21:30,824
And I really struggled to watch what Bitcoin did recently.

311
00:21:31,304 --> 00:21:32,584
I thought it was good.

312
00:21:32,824 --> 00:21:33,984
Bitcoin Mechanic came on.

313
00:21:33,984 --> 00:21:43,964
He's one of the few proponents of BIP-110, one of the few very vocal proponents that would probably also become one of the glorious leaders once BIP-10 has fully activated.

314
00:21:44,584 --> 00:21:53,924
And I want you to take a listen to what I think is probably the most revealing set of questions and answers and tip to Danny really for asking the tough questions.

315
00:21:53,924 --> 00:21:58,084
I think we look at this the same thing from a different perspective.

316
00:21:58,244 --> 00:22:03,144
Like, I think you see silence as potential support and I see silence as potential resistance.

317
00:22:03,984 --> 00:22:05,584
And the truth will be in the middle.

318
00:22:05,764 --> 00:22:07,384
Some people will be on either side of this.

319
00:22:07,604 --> 00:22:09,244
But what I want to know is,

320
00:22:09,444 --> 00:22:11,504
so let's just assume,

321
00:22:11,884 --> 00:22:13,004
and you might say I'm wrong here,

322
00:22:13,064 --> 00:22:15,624
but I'm going to assume that you don't reach 55%

323
00:22:15,624 --> 00:22:17,504
and get this as a minor activated soft fork

324
00:22:17,504 --> 00:22:20,064
and that you end up doing a user activated soft fork.

325
00:22:20,624 --> 00:22:22,084
And what happens after that?

326
00:22:22,444 --> 00:22:26,024
If you don't have many people building on top of this chain,

327
00:22:26,244 --> 00:22:28,004
do you get orphaned off the network?

328
00:22:28,184 --> 00:22:28,784
What happens?

329
00:22:29,704 --> 00:22:32,944
I have sort of pulled back on my coverage of BIP-110

330
00:22:32,944 --> 00:22:37,844
because it seemed like there just wasn't really much momentum out there,

331
00:22:38,244 --> 00:22:40,304
that there wasn't people that were actively caring.

332
00:22:40,404 --> 00:22:43,444
There's clearly some that are running knots and choosing to activate BIP-110,

333
00:22:44,044 --> 00:22:45,744
but they seem to be a minority.

334
00:22:46,004 --> 00:22:48,984
And so it seemed to me like maybe I should pull back on the story a little bit.

335
00:22:49,364 --> 00:22:54,844
But listening to this clip, I've realized that people's apathy towards this issue,

336
00:22:54,844 --> 00:22:58,344
people not engaging, is part of the design.

337
00:22:58,344 --> 00:23:05,944
It's part of the plan to consolidate power through what is essentially game mechanics.

338
00:23:06,544 --> 00:23:11,464
The mechanic, what I like about him is he speaks very clearly, very calmly and very softly.

339
00:23:12,424 --> 00:23:25,844
And I think the language he chooses to use, it's sort of like how politicians speak about freedom and liberties and rights when they're really just, you know, interested in whatever their own political agenda is.

340
00:23:25,844 --> 00:23:29,544
but they know to wrap their speech in certain language.

341
00:23:29,944 --> 00:23:30,564
And it works.

342
00:23:30,624 --> 00:23:31,904
If you just go read the comments

343
00:23:31,904 --> 00:23:34,164
on what Bitcoin did for this episode on YouTube,

344
00:23:34,604 --> 00:23:35,744
it's nothing but people

345
00:23:35,744 --> 00:23:37,704
that are just absolutely glazing mechanic.

346
00:23:38,484 --> 00:23:40,444
And in part because he has an excellent delivery style.

347
00:23:40,744 --> 00:23:42,764
But he's going to explain how apathy

348
00:23:42,764 --> 00:23:45,444
and people not really engaging with this issue

349
00:23:45,444 --> 00:23:47,184
is actually part of the plan.

350
00:23:47,884 --> 00:23:51,044
So the chain split scenarios are like technical rabbit holes

351
00:23:51,044 --> 00:23:52,724
and they're fun to go down,

352
00:23:52,804 --> 00:23:54,104
but I think they're really unrealistic.

353
00:23:54,104 --> 00:24:03,784
I think the two most likely scenarios are BIP110 completely dies and there's never a block on that UASF activated chain.

354
00:24:04,184 --> 00:24:06,584
But I think that's the lesser of the two scenarios.

355
00:24:06,824 --> 00:24:20,004
I think what happens is as you come up to that height, the tension rises, the temperature rises, more conversations start happening and the prisoner's dilemma type scenarios start kicking off.

356
00:24:20,004 --> 00:24:21,444
because at the end of the day,

357
00:24:21,504 --> 00:24:22,684
if you're foundry or ant pool,

358
00:24:22,784 --> 00:24:25,004
you need to be ready for it to activate

359
00:24:25,004 --> 00:24:28,284
because if the other pool activates it

360
00:24:28,284 --> 00:24:29,944
and you're not ready to activate it,

361
00:24:30,004 --> 00:24:31,964
you're mining on a chain that can get wiped out.

362
00:24:32,444 --> 00:24:35,004
And this is a very important point

363
00:24:35,004 --> 00:24:37,164
about the asymmetry of soft fork enforcement.

364
00:24:37,784 --> 00:24:41,024
So when you said what I view as ambivalence,

365
00:24:41,084 --> 00:24:42,004
you view as resistance.

366
00:24:42,424 --> 00:24:43,624
The problem is resistance

367
00:24:43,624 --> 00:24:46,584
is not the same thing as ambivalence

368
00:24:46,584 --> 00:24:49,124
because ambivalence to any consensus rule in Bitcoin

369
00:24:49,124 --> 00:24:53,204
means you're going along with it. If you don't like a consensus rule in Bitcoin,

370
00:24:54,024 --> 00:24:59,184
not talking about how enforced they are for the moment, you have no choice but to go along with

371
00:24:59,184 --> 00:25:04,204
it. You might not like the one megabyte block size limit, but that doesn't mean you get to

372
00:25:04,204 --> 00:25:08,744
pretend it doesn't exist. You have to, to get along with everyone else. So this is a very

373
00:25:08,744 --> 00:25:12,024
important point of it. The pools can be standing together. Let me just ask a question on that,

374
00:25:12,084 --> 00:25:17,464
because why do they have to go along with it? Why wouldn't they just keep going on Bitcoin as we

375
00:25:17,464 --> 00:25:21,824
know it today because they need everyone else to agree to do that too and if they don't then they

376
00:25:21,824 --> 00:25:28,424
can end up on a dead chain but the vast majority does agree with that agree with what ignore agree

377
00:25:28,424 --> 00:25:32,704
with bitcoin as it is today like i think the vast majority of people are not in support of bit but

378
00:25:32,704 --> 00:25:38,084
you have to you have to just project forward a bit if your foundry and i don't know how close

379
00:25:38,084 --> 00:25:43,444
these companies are right let's just talk in game theory abstracts if your foundry and antpool's

380
00:25:43,444 --> 00:25:50,724
looking for a way to screw you. If Antpool's ready for BIP-110 and they activate it, say they're 25,

381
00:25:50,804 --> 00:25:54,524
30 percent, all right, Antpool's actually more like 40 percent with all its little sub pools.

382
00:25:55,224 --> 00:26:01,744
If the fork height hits and unbeknownst to you, they now start enforcing this, then your blockchain

383
00:26:01,744 --> 00:26:09,064
where you were ignoring it slows down to 60 percent of what it was, which means the minute

384
00:26:09,064 --> 00:26:14,724
ant pool gets longer than you it wipes out your chain because you will accept all the bit 110

385
00:26:14,724 --> 00:26:19,744
blocks they don't break any of the existing rules that is an enormously risky position to put

386
00:26:19,744 --> 00:26:26,324
yourself in so if that scenario were to happen you want to be the one that brings it about

387
00:26:26,324 --> 00:26:32,224
and if either side has done this calculation they realize they have no choice but to go along with

388
00:26:32,224 --> 00:26:38,964
it that's i don't know if that is well enough explained but you can't it is a classic prisoner's

389
00:26:38,964 --> 00:26:43,824
dilemma situation where you need to be sure that the other person is going to do the thing that

390
00:26:43,824 --> 00:26:48,064
doesn't cause you to risk having your blocks wiped out. And if you can't be sure of that,

391
00:26:48,344 --> 00:26:52,364
then you need to be the one putting them in danger. And then they assume you're putting you,

392
00:26:52,844 --> 00:26:57,184
that you're putting them in danger and they want to put you in danger. And then all that happens is

393
00:26:57,184 --> 00:27:01,304
everyone enforces the rules of Bit.10 because no one wants to risk being on a chain that can get

394
00:27:01,304 --> 00:27:07,784
wiped out. And if there's no indication about anything, like even if the CEOs meet and say,

395
00:27:07,784 --> 00:27:11,504
don't worry, we'll ignore this stupid fork, we don't like it. The minute the back's turned,

396
00:27:11,584 --> 00:27:17,504
they might just think they were lying to each other. And this is a very real fact of the matter

397
00:27:17,504 --> 00:27:24,284
about the dynamics of soft fork activation. And there has been concern raised about this,

398
00:27:24,344 --> 00:27:29,004
because what if someone comes up with a really awful soft fork? Can a minority always get a

399
00:27:29,004 --> 00:27:42,608
soft fork activated in Bitcoin just because of these dynamics And I saying yeah actually they can and that why you have to be prepared to actively resist it which no one is doing So they know They know no one is going to resist it

400
00:27:43,248 --> 00:27:46,468
He just said here even a bad proposal can get through,

401
00:27:47,468 --> 00:27:52,508
and they're betting, they're planning on people just being ambivalent to it.

402
00:27:52,508 --> 00:27:55,588
And that's why you have to be prepared to actively resist it,

403
00:27:55,848 --> 00:27:57,028
which no one is doing.

404
00:27:57,328 --> 00:28:01,508
You need a URSF to commit to a chain that cannot be wiped out by the BIP 110.

405
00:28:02,208 --> 00:28:07,468
and there's no energy around that. So it's either, it kind of wins in all scenarios.

406
00:28:07,468 --> 00:28:11,768
And it sounds crazy to say that given what a fringe movement it seems like at the moment,

407
00:28:12,148 --> 00:28:18,268
but unless people can actually coalesce around resisting it and saying, we can't get wiped out

408
00:28:18,268 --> 00:28:24,108
by Bit.1.10 because we are going to intentionally reject that soft fork with a counter fork.

409
00:28:24,728 --> 00:28:29,308
Unless you can get energy around that, your best strategy is ignoring it and hoping it goes away.

410
00:28:29,308 --> 00:28:33,068
And the problem with ignoring it and hoping it goes away is that other people might not.

411
00:28:33,648 --> 00:28:40,028
And if they don't, then you get these last minute, like I said, super charged, you know,

412
00:28:40,088 --> 00:28:45,388
emotionally, emotional conversations in late July, where everyone's throwing things at each other.

413
00:28:45,788 --> 00:28:47,628
Some people choose to start activating.

414
00:28:48,048 --> 00:28:52,748
And then at that point, everyone else just goes, all right, well, do I hate this thing enough to

415
00:28:52,748 --> 00:28:54,088
actually URSF it?

416
00:28:54,288 --> 00:28:55,488
Or shall I just go along with it?

417
00:28:55,508 --> 00:28:56,968
And then the price stops falling.

418
00:28:56,968 --> 00:28:59,848
I think that's realistically the scenario we get into.

419
00:29:00,668 --> 00:29:01,128
There's the plan.

420
00:29:02,728 --> 00:29:05,588
So they expect towards the end there's going to be a fierce debate

421
00:29:05,588 --> 00:29:08,588
and then everybody will just capitulate and implement it.

422
00:29:09,388 --> 00:29:14,988
And this to me seems to be a cynical exploit of a user-activated soft fork.

423
00:29:15,648 --> 00:29:17,348
And I'd like to know how you feel about it.

424
00:29:17,588 --> 00:29:19,488
Boost into the show and give me your thoughts.

425
00:29:21,168 --> 00:29:26,808
I find it to be, I think what really gets me is how cynical it is,

426
00:29:26,808 --> 00:29:33,228
while also wrapping itself in language about saving Bitcoin against a threat that doesn't

427
00:29:33,228 --> 00:29:37,888
even seem to have materialized even after Bitcoin Core 30 has shipped and has shipped

428
00:29:37,888 --> 00:29:38,588
since October.

429
00:29:39,548 --> 00:29:41,588
But yet we're going to make this radical change.

430
00:29:42,108 --> 00:29:43,128
I don't get it.

431
00:29:43,168 --> 00:29:44,268
I can't wrap my head around it.

432
00:29:44,268 --> 00:29:52,028
And I can only imagine if this has wider exposure, the overall narrative damage it could do to

433
00:29:52,028 --> 00:29:52,368
Bitcoin.

434
00:29:52,548 --> 00:29:53,688
Right now, it doesn't seem to.

435
00:29:53,688 --> 00:30:00,208
In fact, these internal fights don't even seem to register or bother with these Bitcoin treasury companies who are continuing right along.

436
00:30:00,768 --> 00:30:02,368
And the king of them is Saylor.

437
00:30:02,588 --> 00:30:06,128
And he went on CNBC to flex that he just plans to buy all the supply.

438
00:30:06,408 --> 00:30:08,708
Sorry, he's buying everything that's going to get mined.

439
00:30:08,988 --> 00:30:12,088
He might be taking pauses and buying bonds or selling here and there.

440
00:30:12,368 --> 00:30:15,848
But the plan is to just snap up all the supply.

441
00:30:15,848 --> 00:30:24,088
There's not much Bitcoin left because at this point, all of the organic supply of Bitcoin being produced by the miners is being taken up by the Bitcoin.

442
00:30:24,088 --> 00:30:27,048
You bought more than was mined this year for strategy.

443
00:30:27,048 --> 00:30:37,188
Yeah, we have. Yeah. The formation of digital credit means that the credit market itself is absorbing all of the organic supply of Bitcoin from now to forever.

444
00:30:37,508 --> 00:30:43,448
Our company will probably buy all of the Bitcoin gets produced by the miners between here and the year 2140.

445
00:30:43,548 --> 00:30:44,388
Then there's no more Bitcoin.

446
00:30:44,388 --> 00:30:45,968
2140. Yeah.

447
00:30:52,208 --> 00:30:54,928
There you go. So he still plans to buy.

448
00:30:55,988 --> 00:31:00,088
Okay. All right. All right. Well, as long as he can keep raising the money, I suppose.

449
00:31:00,608 --> 00:31:04,428
So I have a question not related to that, but I'd like your input on.

450
00:31:05,628 --> 00:31:10,308
Would you be interested in hearing my review of the new Fold credit card? I'm just about

451
00:31:10,308 --> 00:31:15,188
one month into using the new Fold credit card. The idea is it gives you sats back on your purchases,

452
00:31:15,188 --> 00:31:19,848
and then you can stack it with some other perks on the Fold platform and ultimately get up to 4%

453
00:31:19,848 --> 00:31:24,888
sats back. So I started using it because I have been a Fold customer for a while. And I don't know

454
00:31:24,888 --> 00:31:28,688
if that's something, it's a credit card. It's not exactly Bitcoin related, but it is a credit card

455
00:31:28,688 --> 00:31:32,808
from a Bitcoin company that gives you sats. So I figured I'd toss it out there. And if you're

456
00:31:32,808 --> 00:31:37,428
looking for an excuse to boost the show, that would be a good one. I'd like to know your thoughts.

457
00:31:40,308 --> 00:31:58,008
Well, there's still a lot more show coming up.

458
00:31:58,168 --> 00:32:00,988
Boosts, updates, and of course, the song of the week.

459
00:32:01,408 --> 00:32:04,708
I'll just take a moment to mention you can support the show just by doing what you do.

460
00:32:04,788 --> 00:32:08,888
If you want to stack your sats on River, the best way to stack sats in the U.S., I say,

461
00:32:08,888 --> 00:32:10,388
We got a link in the notes for that.

462
00:32:10,868 --> 00:32:16,068
Now, if you want to go the full self-custody route, automatic full self-custody, they don't even host a wallet.

463
00:32:16,468 --> 00:32:17,468
Check out the Bitcoin well.

464
00:32:17,548 --> 00:32:18,648
They're in the U.S. and Canada.

465
00:32:19,028 --> 00:32:22,728
If you want to sell your sats, go right to a Bitcoin card from, say, Lightning.

466
00:32:23,088 --> 00:32:24,268
Go buy yourself something.

467
00:32:25,148 --> 00:32:26,208
The Bitcoin company.

468
00:32:26,608 --> 00:32:29,728
They go from sats to gift card over the Lightning network in just seconds.

469
00:32:30,168 --> 00:32:33,568
If you want to get access to your liquidity without selling your Bitcoin, that's where Salt can come in.

470
00:32:34,268 --> 00:32:40,088
They'll give you a loan backed by your Bitcoin with some margin call protections in there that are nice to have and other features.

471
00:32:40,548 --> 00:32:44,568
And Salt has lower rates and lower minimums than a lot of other places.

472
00:32:44,888 --> 00:32:46,368
So I like that a lot about them.

473
00:32:46,728 --> 00:32:48,048
Check out those links in the show notes.

474
00:32:48,128 --> 00:32:51,368
It's a great way to support the show just by doing what you do.

475
00:32:51,368 --> 00:33:05,588
And we do have some boost to get to.

476
00:33:05,768 --> 00:33:07,588
We have some support that came into the episode.

477
00:33:08,628 --> 00:33:09,608
And I'm...

478
00:33:09,608 --> 00:33:10,648
Okay, okay.

479
00:33:10,808 --> 00:33:15,428
Nat Gas Emerson came in with 21,012 sats.

480
00:33:15,428 --> 00:33:18,028
I hoard that which your kind covered.

481
00:33:18,168 --> 00:33:18,728
Thank you, sir.

482
00:33:18,808 --> 00:33:19,548
Thank you very much.

483
00:33:19,748 --> 00:33:20,688
Fun will now commence.

484
00:33:20,688 --> 00:33:25,468
Had I known you dressed so nice for these, I would have been boosting more and more often.

485
00:33:25,588 --> 00:33:26,008
Keep it up.

486
00:33:26,088 --> 00:33:28,388
Oh, you watched the video version while I dressed down this week.

487
00:33:29,328 --> 00:33:30,228
Sorry about that.

488
00:33:30,508 --> 00:33:31,248
I feel bad.

489
00:33:32,128 --> 00:33:33,448
I should have dressed up.

490
00:33:33,628 --> 00:33:34,328
I do sometimes.

491
00:33:34,888 --> 00:33:36,148
I'm glad you watched the video version.

492
00:33:36,228 --> 00:33:37,668
I'd be curious to get more feedback on that.

493
00:33:37,748 --> 00:33:38,468
Thank you for the boost.

494
00:33:38,548 --> 00:33:39,428
You are our baller.

495
00:33:39,748 --> 00:33:40,948
You got it on sale this week.

496
00:33:41,008 --> 00:33:42,008
Thank you very much.

497
00:33:42,628 --> 00:33:45,228
OB boosted in with 21,000 sats.

498
00:33:47,748 --> 00:33:49,508
These aren't the droids you were looking for.

499
00:33:49,508 --> 00:33:52,068
perhaps a new gaslighting sound clip.

500
00:33:52,368 --> 00:33:52,668
Hmm.

501
00:33:53,568 --> 00:33:54,508
Yeah, it would be a good one,

502
00:33:54,528 --> 00:33:55,888
but you know, it would be next level

503
00:33:55,888 --> 00:33:56,848
as you clipped it for me.

504
00:33:57,008 --> 00:33:57,768
Come on, man.

505
00:33:58,088 --> 00:33:59,348
What, am I going to go load up Star Wars?

506
00:33:59,488 --> 00:34:00,288
But I like it, OB.

507
00:34:00,788 --> 00:34:01,848
Thank you very much.

508
00:34:02,408 --> 00:34:05,048
Derivation Dingus comes in with 8,500 sats.

509
00:34:09,048 --> 00:34:09,828
Great episode.

510
00:34:10,028 --> 00:34:11,788
I'm busy AF this week,

511
00:34:11,868 --> 00:34:13,008
but I wanted to send some value.

512
00:34:13,128 --> 00:34:14,908
So here's the rest of the sats in my fountain wallet.

513
00:34:15,008 --> 00:34:15,828
Oh, thank you, Derivation.

514
00:34:16,288 --> 00:34:17,628
Appreciate that value a lot.

515
00:34:17,628 --> 00:34:20,168
and I know what you mean.

516
00:34:20,268 --> 00:34:21,088
It's busy days, right?

517
00:34:21,168 --> 00:34:22,688
But then one day we'll look back

518
00:34:22,688 --> 00:34:23,348
and we'll be bored

519
00:34:23,348 --> 00:34:24,608
and we'll think where did it all go.

520
00:34:25,888 --> 00:34:30,948
NPUB1ZapSats comes in with 2,267 sats.

521
00:34:31,008 --> 00:34:31,728
I like that handle.

522
00:34:32,208 --> 00:34:32,768
Go for it.

523
00:34:32,928 --> 00:34:33,248
Hi, Chris.

524
00:34:33,328 --> 00:34:34,428
Thanks for the mention last week.

525
00:34:34,488 --> 00:34:35,828
I hadn't updated my handle in Fountain.

526
00:34:36,208 --> 00:34:38,728
Ah, love the show.

527
00:34:38,808 --> 00:34:39,468
Keep up the good work.

528
00:34:39,548 --> 00:34:40,708
Thanks for following up on that.

529
00:34:42,028 --> 00:34:42,808
Thanks for the boost.

530
00:34:42,808 --> 00:34:43,608
Appreciate the value.

531
00:34:43,608 --> 00:34:48,028
Orange Mart's here with 5,555 sats.

532
00:34:49,888 --> 00:34:50,768
Orange Mart.

533
00:34:52,868 --> 00:34:54,348
No message, just value.

534
00:34:54,788 --> 00:34:55,528
Thank you very much.

535
00:34:55,628 --> 00:34:58,288
Paranoid Coder is here with 4,000 satoshis.

536
00:34:58,848 --> 00:35:02,008
I wanted to give more context around boosting from Pocket Cast.

537
00:35:02,108 --> 00:35:03,728
Well, it wasn't entirely accurate.

538
00:35:03,968 --> 00:35:05,668
Oh, here we go, guys.

539
00:35:07,468 --> 00:35:10,428
As the app just opens a link to the Fountain web app

540
00:35:10,428 --> 00:35:12,488
from the boost button in the podcast main page.

541
00:35:13,368 --> 00:35:15,408
I find it very convenient and will continue to use it

542
00:35:15,408 --> 00:35:17,148
so long as the company behind Pocket Cast

543
00:35:17,148 --> 00:35:18,568
gets some extra analytics around it.

544
00:35:18,868 --> 00:35:20,168
I haven't seen any other official announcements

545
00:35:20,168 --> 00:35:22,188
of this feature, so I'm waiting to raise awareness.

546
00:35:22,288 --> 00:35:23,128
I'm wanting to raise awareness.

547
00:35:23,228 --> 00:35:24,228
I hadn't heard about that either.

548
00:35:24,848 --> 00:35:26,428
I used to be a big Pocket Cast user,

549
00:35:26,508 --> 00:35:27,708
but they've just sort of fallen behind,

550
00:35:27,808 --> 00:35:29,688
so it's nice to see that window opening.

551
00:35:30,688 --> 00:35:32,028
And they've adopted some other podcasting

552
00:35:32,028 --> 00:35:32,948
to do features as well.

553
00:35:33,788 --> 00:35:34,368
Thank you, Paranoid.

554
00:35:34,428 --> 00:35:34,988
Appreciate you.

555
00:35:35,328 --> 00:35:37,528
Oh my God, this drawer is filled with fruit lobes.

556
00:35:37,528 --> 00:35:40,088
BudgetEye Stormtrooper is here with 2,042 sats.

557
00:35:40,148 --> 00:35:41,348
Just pump the brakes right there.

558
00:35:41,348 --> 00:35:48,108
I propose the Bitcoin slog summer or the cold summer or the Bitcoin thorough summer.

559
00:35:48,328 --> 00:35:49,928
I think slog summer is close.

560
00:35:50,588 --> 00:35:53,088
I don't know if that's quite it, but I think that's it.

561
00:35:53,708 --> 00:35:54,068
Enough.

562
00:35:54,388 --> 00:35:56,428
It's going to be a slog and it's going to be hot.

563
00:35:56,528 --> 00:35:57,608
I think the weather is going to be hot.

564
00:35:58,368 --> 00:35:59,508
So it's, it's yeah.

565
00:35:59,588 --> 00:36:00,768
Slog summer might be the way to go.

566
00:36:01,068 --> 00:36:03,088
I think we can maybe do better, but Stormtrooper, you're close.

567
00:36:03,168 --> 00:36:03,768
Thank you for the value.

568
00:36:04,808 --> 00:36:08,268
Your inner third child comes in with 4,445 sets.

569
00:36:08,508 --> 00:36:09,848
The traders love the ball.

570
00:36:09,848 --> 00:36:13,588
episode 21 was the first episode featuring the music we have all come to count on

571
00:36:13,588 --> 00:36:17,808
would love an outro with these beats sometime a mashup of all the music and maybe some chris

572
00:36:17,808 --> 00:36:25,788
quips okay you get right on it buddy man it's pretty funny next caller holy hand grenade clip

573
00:36:25,788 --> 00:36:30,288
is okay but the clip where they miss counts to three would be preferable one two five three my

574
00:36:30,288 --> 00:36:35,288
lord oh right three right okay well see there's a lot of clip requests i don't mind doing some of

575
00:36:35,288 --> 00:36:39,188
these i can try to find that one because i did have that one loaded up uh i love the emoji shout

576
00:36:39,188 --> 00:36:43,008
out. Thank you. Social media is fine. But how many fans do you need to give out $10 a month to make

577
00:36:43,008 --> 00:36:48,388
this worth your time? Well, I don't know, man, I would have to do the math on that. It's the thing

578
00:36:48,388 --> 00:36:52,428
I like about the value for value models. It also gives me good signal. You know, it helps direct

579
00:36:52,428 --> 00:36:57,708
the show. I can understand what's what topics resonate to. So I do like the per episode signal.

580
00:36:57,708 --> 00:37:02,368
So it's a complicated issue because the monthlies are really good. Something you can count on,

581
00:37:02,428 --> 00:37:06,808
you know, like, are we going to make it if people don't support that kind of stuff? It's good

582
00:37:06,808 --> 00:37:12,148
questions. Nice to hear from you, inner child. I am programmed in multiple techniques. All right.

583
00:37:12,528 --> 00:37:18,648
Coming up next is user 740. Coming in hot with the boom. 2,550 sats. No message, just value,

584
00:37:18,728 --> 00:37:25,468
though. Thank you very much. And we got Gene Bean here. Gene Bean with 8,003 sats. You make me

585
00:37:25,468 --> 00:37:29,528
want to be a better man. Send some value to our artists. And he says, does the Clarity Act have

586
00:37:29,528 --> 00:37:34,648
any impact on liquid, on liquid, on LBTC? No, I don't think it does. Not from what I could tell,

587
00:37:34,648 --> 00:37:39,908
at least gene he says i'm in the just say no to knots camp at this point they have been and i have

588
00:37:39,908 --> 00:37:44,568
been back on core for a while the story on claude cracking that wallet by finding stuff on the hard

589
00:37:44,568 --> 00:37:49,008
drive is why literally every guide i've seen says put your seed phrase on anything anything but

590
00:37:49,008 --> 00:37:54,808
digital yeah well yeah i think it's it's going to be it's going to be wallets that are password

591
00:37:54,808 --> 00:37:58,308
protected which is going to be some of the early stuff it's yeah most people have a seed phrase and

592
00:37:58,308 --> 00:38:03,248
they put it somewhere else i hope this is the way people i hope thank you gene good to hear from you

593
00:38:03,248 --> 00:38:04,328
Thanks for the boost.

594
00:38:05,248 --> 00:38:07,688
Bob is here with 12,533 sets.

595
00:38:07,788 --> 00:38:10,528
I don't understand what the heck is going on here.

596
00:38:10,628 --> 00:38:12,168
What about a dirty orange summer?

597
00:38:12,568 --> 00:38:14,248
Oh, okay.

598
00:38:14,548 --> 00:38:17,888
Sort of like the song Dirty Black Summer for a bad Bitcoin summer.

599
00:38:18,048 --> 00:38:19,068
Well, now that's stuck in my head.

600
00:38:20,648 --> 00:38:21,508
You know what?

601
00:38:22,008 --> 00:38:23,348
I do like dirty orange summer.

602
00:38:23,688 --> 00:38:24,368
Sounds good.

603
00:38:24,468 --> 00:38:25,648
I do want something that rolls.

604
00:38:26,568 --> 00:38:27,188
What do you think's better?

605
00:38:27,288 --> 00:38:30,628
Slog summer or the Bitcoin slog summer or dirty orange summer?

606
00:38:31,268 --> 00:38:32,008
You guys let me know.

607
00:38:32,568 --> 00:38:35,048
Nakamoto 6102 is here with 3,500 sats.

608
00:38:35,268 --> 00:38:36,588
Live long and prosper.

609
00:38:36,808 --> 00:38:38,048
And Nakamoto says thanks for the value.

610
00:38:38,108 --> 00:38:39,668
Well, thank you for the value.

611
00:38:40,108 --> 00:38:41,128
Rock and roll.

612
00:38:41,288 --> 00:38:42,828
I appreciate that very much.

613
00:38:43,568 --> 00:38:47,188
Our next boost comes from user54 with 2,121 sats.

614
00:38:47,528 --> 00:38:49,048
There's coffee in that nebula.

615
00:38:49,368 --> 00:38:50,388
And they just say boost.

616
00:38:50,688 --> 00:38:51,088
Boost.

617
00:38:51,288 --> 00:38:51,708
You bet.

618
00:38:51,828 --> 00:38:52,188
Thank you.

619
00:38:52,188 --> 00:38:54,028
Ace Ackerman's here with a row of ducks.

620
00:38:54,908 --> 00:38:57,268
Boost to the best Bitcoin podcast in the universe.

621
00:38:57,408 --> 00:38:58,608
Oh, thank you, sir.

622
00:38:58,728 --> 00:38:59,128
Thank you.

623
00:38:59,188 --> 00:38:59,668
Thank you.

624
00:39:00,148 --> 00:39:01,628
Ace, it's always nice to hear from you.

625
00:39:02,008 --> 00:39:02,908
Appreciate the value.

626
00:39:04,288 --> 00:39:05,448
User 809.

627
00:39:05,488 --> 00:39:08,828
You guys got to go set your names in your profiles.

628
00:39:09,088 --> 00:39:10,328
That's not possible.

629
00:39:10,488 --> 00:39:11,408
Nothing can do that.

630
00:39:11,488 --> 00:39:12,268
Oh, yeah, you can do it.

631
00:39:12,288 --> 00:39:13,168
You just got to go into Fountain.

632
00:39:13,488 --> 00:39:14,548
But I do appreciate the boost.

633
00:39:14,628 --> 00:39:16,828
User 809 comes in with 5,000 sats.

634
00:39:16,928 --> 00:39:17,808
I like you.

635
00:39:18,208 --> 00:39:19,208
You're a hot ticket.

636
00:39:19,408 --> 00:39:20,268
Keep up the great work.

637
00:39:20,368 --> 00:39:21,268
Thank you for the value.

638
00:39:21,568 --> 00:39:24,328
I appreciate you coming in over the one hour mark, too.

639
00:39:24,768 --> 00:39:26,128
Listening right along.

640
00:39:26,588 --> 00:39:27,148
Appreciate you.

641
00:39:27,608 --> 00:39:30,808
Kiwi Bitcoin guides here with 4,567 sats.

642
00:39:30,808 --> 00:39:33,148
Boy, they are doing a lot with mayo these days.

643
00:39:33,348 --> 00:39:37,408
When the opera turn drama started, I was interested to learn more about Knots, and I did.

644
00:39:37,868 --> 00:39:41,488
But over time, I came to the conclusion I would not run it for the following reasons.

645
00:39:41,628 --> 00:39:46,228
Key person and crazy person risk with Luke, limited number of developers, and support of BIP-110.

646
00:39:46,748 --> 00:39:50,608
Then I also learned that each version of Knots includes a built-in deprecation setting by default.

647
00:39:50,788 --> 00:39:52,108
So, no Knots for me.

648
00:39:52,908 --> 00:39:55,428
Yeah, that's sort of right along my line, Kiwi.

649
00:39:55,728 --> 00:39:56,688
I think you've nailed it.

650
00:39:56,988 --> 00:39:57,788
I think you've nailed it.

651
00:39:57,788 --> 00:40:04,308
superior ability breeds superior ambition thank you everybody who boosted uh and everybody who

652
00:40:04,308 --> 00:40:09,008
boosted below the 2000 sat cutoff i i just uh cut off there for time on air but i appreciate it and

653
00:40:09,008 --> 00:40:14,768
thank you everyone who stream sats as you listened 32 of you did that and collectively you all stacked

654
00:40:14,768 --> 00:40:22,708
44 599 sats our biggest boost of the episode he's a good guy he's a real good guy no he's a great guy

655
00:40:22,708 --> 00:40:24,728
That goes to all of you. Thank you.

656
00:40:24,808 --> 00:40:29,168
What the hell was that? Spaceball 1. They've gone to Plaid.

657
00:40:29,468 --> 00:40:37,548
When you bring it all together with our boosters, our grand total for this week's episode was 197,432 sats.

658
00:40:37,748 --> 00:40:43,288
Not our strongest week, but I'm not sure if last episode was our strongest episode, so I'm going to call that one fair.

659
00:40:43,508 --> 00:40:45,988
I'd love to see the support step up for this episode.

660
00:40:46,328 --> 00:40:51,028
After all, the sats are on sale and it goes to a good cause this here podcast.

661
00:40:51,448 --> 00:40:53,328
Thank you, everybody, who supports the show with a boost

662
00:40:53,328 --> 00:40:56,408
or with a membership on Jupiter Party or Fountain.

663
00:40:56,588 --> 00:40:57,568
You make the show possible.

664
00:41:11,108 --> 00:41:12,648
Shout out to AlbiHub, too,

665
00:41:12,748 --> 00:41:15,168
which has just been going from strength to strength.

666
00:41:15,248 --> 00:41:16,628
I just updated my AlbiHub,

667
00:41:16,748 --> 00:41:18,308
and there's a lot of good stuff in there

668
00:41:18,308 --> 00:41:29,692
if you follow the agentic workflow It really cool And I have more on that later But I want to start the updates with a little bit of fun if you allow it

669
00:41:33,392 --> 00:41:39,672
So I played the opening clip of Mark Cuban talking about how Bitcoin had lost the plot.

670
00:41:40,192 --> 00:41:46,752
Well, let's stick with Mark for a moment. And when he's not running his mouth about Bitcoin

671
00:41:46,752 --> 00:41:52,132
losing the plot, he actually was quite the advocate for Bitcoin just a couple of years

672
00:41:52,132 --> 00:41:53,032
ago when he bought in.

673
00:41:53,212 --> 00:41:55,392
Bitcoin is just driven by supply and demand.

674
00:41:55,692 --> 00:41:57,572
There's only going to be 21 million of them.

675
00:41:57,572 --> 00:42:01,372
The more people that buy and the fewer people that sell, that means the price is going to

676
00:42:01,372 --> 00:42:01,772
go up.

677
00:42:01,852 --> 00:42:03,032
That's just the nature of it.

678
00:42:03,352 --> 00:42:04,932
It's a great store of value.

679
00:42:05,072 --> 00:42:08,772
That's why I have an investment in it, you know, because I do feel that the demand is

680
00:42:08,772 --> 00:42:11,032
going to exceed the number of people selling.

681
00:42:11,352 --> 00:42:12,912
Oh, I guess I guess that changed somehow.

682
00:42:13,432 --> 00:42:14,912
Like any of the fundamentals of that changed.

683
00:42:15,312 --> 00:42:21,512
It's so bizarre how these billionaires have got it right before and then flipped for seemingly odd reasons.

684
00:42:22,072 --> 00:42:23,832
I can't I can't make sense of it.

685
00:42:24,292 --> 00:42:28,152
There is a story over at The Rage I wanted to bring your attention to.

686
00:42:28,152 --> 00:42:33,472
I'm just reading up on it, and I thought it's important enough that I should flag it before I have a complete understanding.

687
00:42:34,132 --> 00:42:39,412
The article is titled Mind in America Act would put would put Bitcoin at risk.

688
00:42:39,412 --> 00:42:50,592
And it argues that the new proposed Mind in America Act of 2026 could threaten Bitcoin's neutrality and decentralization by creating U.S. government certification program for miners.

689
00:42:51,632 --> 00:43:08,472
Yeah, this is a real program and it would include incentives and also the phasing out of foreign produced mining hardware, which would also probably include government grants, loans and capital gains exemptions to help transition over to U.S.-based hardware.

690
00:43:08,472 --> 00:43:20,312
But as the rage argues, that would essentially introduce dependence on government grants and loan programs and then force these companies, these mining companies to bend to the federal government as needed.

691
00:43:20,632 --> 00:43:27,192
And they say the bill leaves room for a higher certification level for operations that exceed the phase out timeline in the bill.

692
00:43:27,632 --> 00:43:29,752
So there's another phase where you could get a higher level.

693
00:43:29,912 --> 00:43:38,332
And the bill gives the energy secretary or the secretary of energy 180 days from enactment to define documentation requirements to prove compliance.

694
00:43:38,472 --> 00:43:40,112
with the bill.

695
00:43:40,912 --> 00:43:43,552
So the rules of compliance,

696
00:43:43,892 --> 00:43:45,152
to say that another way,

697
00:43:45,712 --> 00:43:46,792
will not even be established

698
00:43:46,792 --> 00:43:49,772
until 180 days after the bill has been passed.

699
00:43:50,432 --> 00:43:52,452
In order for a miner to be eligible

700
00:43:52,452 --> 00:43:54,332
to participate in the subsidies program,

701
00:43:54,472 --> 00:43:55,792
the bill orders the establishment

702
00:43:55,792 --> 00:43:57,172
of the certification program

703
00:43:57,172 --> 00:43:58,432
by the Secretary of Commerce

704
00:43:58,432 --> 00:44:00,032
to ensure that mining pools

705
00:44:00,032 --> 00:44:00,852
and mining operations

706
00:44:00,852 --> 00:44:02,712
comply with hardware sourcing standards

707
00:44:02,712 --> 00:44:05,372
as well as ownership requirements.

708
00:44:05,972 --> 00:44:06,812
It would ban the purchase

709
00:44:06,812 --> 00:44:13,832
of any new mining hardware produced by a designated foreign adversary after January 1st,

710
00:44:13,892 --> 00:44:14,812
2027.

711
00:44:15,552 --> 00:44:20,712
Each year until 2030 adds a decreasing maximum percentage of foreign source hardware being

712
00:44:20,712 --> 00:44:22,332
operated by a miner to comply.

713
00:44:23,152 --> 00:44:28,472
Now, this is quite the requirement considering that all of the high end ASIC equipment is

714
00:44:28,472 --> 00:44:30,312
manufactured outside the United States.

715
00:44:30,312 --> 00:44:38,272
not sure how that would work because if you want the u.s mining operations to be competitive they

716
00:44:38,272 --> 00:44:44,312
need to buy the most competitive mining hardware so the rage argues that the bill threatens

717
00:44:44,312 --> 00:44:48,732
bitcoin's neutrality and decentralization and swings control over to the u.s government

718
00:44:48,732 --> 00:44:54,592
and so i recommend you read it i'm going to be following up on it i'm still new to this i just

719
00:44:54,592 --> 00:44:59,892
came across this before the show so i wanted to bring it to your attention speaking of agents

720
00:44:59,892 --> 00:45:05,652
setting up wallets earlier in the show, this is really something. The Nunchuck wallet has been

721
00:45:05,652 --> 00:45:11,272
demonstrating a set of skills and command line tools that they have released so that way your

722
00:45:11,272 --> 00:45:16,912
agents can manage Nunchuck wallets. For example, I have a prompt here that says, create a three of

723
00:45:16,912 --> 00:45:23,412
four wallet. After two years, it becomes a two of four. After five years, it becomes a one of four.

724
00:45:23,412 --> 00:45:29,412
And so they're walking the agent in this example through setting up a multi-sig wallet.

725
00:45:30,712 --> 00:45:32,712
Another prompt, create a three of four wallet.

726
00:45:32,872 --> 00:45:34,212
Six months after funds arrive,

727
00:45:34,312 --> 00:45:36,212
they can be spent with a two of four signature.

728
00:45:36,752 --> 00:45:39,292
After one year, they can be spent with one of four.

729
00:45:40,312 --> 00:45:42,072
So it's sort of an aging process.

730
00:45:42,392 --> 00:45:44,832
To do this, they've released the Nunchuck CLI

731
00:45:44,832 --> 00:45:46,212
and the Nunchuck Agent Skills,

732
00:45:46,292 --> 00:45:47,672
which I'll have linked in the show notes.

733
00:45:48,592 --> 00:45:51,212
And this to me is, of course, very early days.

734
00:45:52,212 --> 00:45:54,252
And so a big warning signs all around it

735
00:45:54,252 --> 00:45:56,252
that you're gonna wanna do this with just test funds.

736
00:45:57,212 --> 00:45:59,552
And you probably wanna plan to let your AI agent

737
00:45:59,552 --> 00:46:05,812
hold a key in a Bitcoin wallet that you can isolate probably on a hardware wallet somewhere

738
00:46:05,812 --> 00:46:08,612
that they don't, you know, you're going to want to take some best practices.

739
00:46:10,032 --> 00:46:12,972
And alternatively, you could set up a watch only mode with these agents.

740
00:46:13,112 --> 00:46:18,872
They support the agent only being able to do read and draft transactions, manage history,

741
00:46:19,592 --> 00:46:23,172
do coin control and so on, but they won't do any transactions or spend.

742
00:46:23,292 --> 00:46:24,372
You can set that mode as well.

743
00:46:24,992 --> 00:46:28,292
I highlight this, not because I encourage you to use it, although go play with it if

744
00:46:28,292 --> 00:46:28,612
you want.

745
00:46:28,612 --> 00:46:36,312
I highlight it because I think this is low key going to be the user level adoption of Bitcoin and agentic use for Bitcoin.

746
00:46:37,272 --> 00:46:39,752
If you have a lightning node now, wouldn't it be nice?

747
00:46:39,812 --> 00:46:47,392
And this is something we talked about in our special to be able to just ask your agent to go rebalance your channels for you and sweep liquidity into your liquid wallet.

748
00:46:47,712 --> 00:46:50,052
These are very useful things and set up properly.

749
00:46:50,152 --> 00:46:53,092
They can be done pretty reliably, but you want to test it.

750
00:46:53,092 --> 00:47:01,112
I just think it's an interesting, I don't know, perhaps window into where actual agentic use cases for Bitcoin will go.

751
00:47:01,172 --> 00:47:02,992
We see people speculating about it all the time.

752
00:47:03,992 --> 00:47:05,472
I think that one may actually have some legs.

753
00:47:06,032 --> 00:47:08,652
OK, next, stick with me here for this.

754
00:47:08,852 --> 00:47:14,512
But the Fox Business Channel went really heavy on Bitcoin this week and crypto to an extent.

755
00:47:14,952 --> 00:47:22,232
And I've narrowed down from about a dozen clips to just a few select clips, starting with coverage on a potential new Bitcoin reserve.

756
00:47:22,232 --> 00:47:29,472
administration is pushing for global crypto dominance in the U.S. Darren Botello is with us.

757
00:47:29,572 --> 00:47:33,212
He's on Capital Electric. In plain English, how are they going to do it, Darren?

758
00:47:34,552 --> 00:47:39,232
Hi, good morning, Stuart. So the president is asking Fed to review allowing crypto and fintech

759
00:47:39,232 --> 00:47:44,132
firms to store their money in the central bank. And this comes after Kraken got access to the

760
00:47:44,132 --> 00:47:48,992
central bank back in March. So they were the first. Now other banks want the same kind of access.

761
00:47:48,992 --> 00:47:54,432
But in Washington, as you know, an executive order is only as good as the president who's in the White House.

762
00:47:54,492 --> 00:47:56,912
The next person that takes over, they could completely change that.

763
00:47:57,332 --> 00:48:03,252
That's why in a Fox Business exclusive, Congressman Nick Begich is introducing a bill, he says,

764
00:48:03,332 --> 00:48:07,312
to lock in Trump's plan and officially establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

765
00:48:07,832 --> 00:48:11,232
Begich tells Fox Business that this is basically the new Fort Knox.

766
00:48:12,732 --> 00:48:17,652
In order to maintain the sovereignty of the U.S. dollar and the strength of the U.S. dollar,

767
00:48:17,652 --> 00:48:28,892
You've got to have a strong reserve policy. That's why central banks around the world for so many years, thousands of years, in fact, have held reserves on their balance sheet.

768
00:48:29,032 --> 00:48:35,652
We need to recognize that digital assets are the 21st century equivalent of those historical gold reserves.

769
00:48:36,612 --> 00:48:44,092
So Begich wants the government to stockpile 5% of all Bitcoin, which is equivalent to how much of the world's gold, the U.S. stores and reserves.

770
00:48:44,092 --> 00:48:47,052
and he already found a way to fund it without taxpayers.

771
00:48:47,212 --> 00:48:49,812
The Treasury is currently sucking up crypto assets

772
00:48:49,812 --> 00:48:52,312
tied to Iran through Operation Economic Fury.

773
00:48:52,872 --> 00:48:53,572
Baggage's plan?

774
00:48:53,972 --> 00:48:55,192
Seize the Ayatollah's crypto

775
00:48:55,192 --> 00:48:57,572
and drop it straight into the U.S. balance sheet.

776
00:48:58,032 --> 00:49:01,532
But he warns the GOP cannot afford to drag its feet.

777
00:49:01,712 --> 00:49:03,872
Conservatives have a tight six-month window

778
00:49:03,872 --> 00:49:05,852
to pass this bill and lock the end of law

779
00:49:05,852 --> 00:49:08,512
while Republicans still control both houses of Congress.

780
00:49:08,892 --> 00:49:10,132
So of course, as we know,

781
00:49:10,512 --> 00:49:12,112
the clock is ticking with the midterms

782
00:49:12,112 --> 00:49:13,032
coming up in November.

783
00:49:13,032 --> 00:49:40,912
Long shot. There's also been discussion of revaluing the U.S. gold stock and buying Bitcoin with some of the differential there. But that one about just taking the seized assets from Iran, that tickled me because this is where this next clip goes. We get an idea with this next clip and you with that previous clip, just what a bad idea stable coins are for any country that is at odds with the United States, but especially Iran.

784
00:49:40,912 --> 00:49:43,732
Aaron, how do we stop this?

785
00:50:10,912 --> 00:50:16,692
works. The companies pay the insurance companies in Bitcoin and they get through the straight safely.

786
00:50:17,132 --> 00:50:22,472
That's the trade off. It's a direct move to dodge our banks and scoop up a fresh source of cash.

787
00:50:23,172 --> 00:50:29,132
And this covers a much larger shadow economy. New estimates from a threat detection data firm

788
00:50:29,132 --> 00:50:36,972
show Tehran is sitting on a crypto pile worth a staggering $7.7 billion. That war chest has been

789
00:50:36,972 --> 00:50:41,992
expanding ever since heavy sanctions cracked down. This was during the first Trump administration,

790
00:50:42,152 --> 00:50:47,112
by the way. And here's a look at the price of crude right now. The hot board's up. Prices are

791
00:50:47,112 --> 00:50:52,052
trading near recent highs as regional shipping tensions. They're flaring. But the regime is

792
00:50:52,052 --> 00:50:57,332
counting on crypto to keep its military funded. The Treasury Department is tracking the digital

793
00:50:57,332 --> 00:51:02,512
breadcrumbs. And they're telling Fox, here's a statement over here, through economic fury,

794
00:51:02,512 --> 00:51:15,512
Treasury has taken actions that have led to the freezing of nearly half a billion dollars worth of cryptocurrency linked to the Iranian regime, severing financial lifelines that Iran's regime and military depend on.

795
00:51:16,072 --> 00:51:20,292
According to crypto experts, Tehran's tech is actually their weak spot here.

796
00:51:21,432 --> 00:51:31,092
We found over and over again that they're actually a much better asset for U.S. law enforcement and other agencies to track because you leave a lot of breadcrumbs.

797
00:51:31,092 --> 00:51:31,332
Yep.

798
00:51:32,512 --> 00:51:36,652
So I said the administration is taking action, but how do we actually stop this?

799
00:51:36,812 --> 00:51:44,572
Industry insiders say Washington has a massive trump card here by threatening to cut off crypto exchanges from the American banking system.

800
00:51:44,692 --> 00:51:48,092
Regulators could actually then flush out these foreign adversaries.

801
00:51:48,532 --> 00:51:48,652
Stuart?

802
00:51:48,952 --> 00:51:51,892
The stablecoins have made a deal with the devil.

803
00:51:52,452 --> 00:51:53,592
I mean, maybe it's for the best, right?

804
00:51:53,672 --> 00:51:57,092
If you want to use a different stablecoin, go right ahead, I suppose.

805
00:51:57,092 --> 00:52:04,752
I wonder if the Zcash people will jump on this as an opportunity to hype Zcash.

806
00:52:06,012 --> 00:52:15,912
All right, now our last clip, I thought this one had some good takes because they wanted to come on and they wanted to fear monger a little bit about quantum and the threat it proposes to Bitcoin.

807
00:52:16,472 --> 00:52:18,792
And the guests, they weren't really having it.

808
00:52:18,792 --> 00:52:24,632
And the industry are using that to price Bitcoin, but the threat is really not imminent.

809
00:52:25,152 --> 00:52:29,292
The hardware right now does not even exist to be able to crack Bitcoin.

810
00:52:29,552 --> 00:52:31,292
And it's several years away.

811
00:52:31,412 --> 00:52:36,792
So the industry is really working hard to prepare because Bitcoin can upgrade through consensus.

812
00:52:36,912 --> 00:52:37,932
It's software.

813
00:52:38,432 --> 00:52:47,612
And so I think that we're going to solve this problem as an industry, especially with all of these stakeholders, both on the retail level, as well as institutional and sovereigns that have gotten into Bitcoin.

814
00:52:47,612 --> 00:52:48,612
But here's the thing, right?

815
00:52:48,632 --> 00:52:49,892
We talk about Softland, Caitlin.

816
00:52:49,892 --> 00:52:55,672
And software stocks, the biggest companies that have ever existed, Microsoft is getting hammered.

817
00:52:55,732 --> 00:52:57,132
ServiceNow getting hammered.

818
00:52:57,412 --> 00:52:59,172
Salesforce.com getting hammered.

819
00:52:59,252 --> 00:53:00,712
Software has been annihilated.

820
00:53:00,972 --> 00:53:04,832
And not just software, other industries because of potential AI threats.

821
00:53:04,832 --> 00:53:07,872
So when do we start this push for consensus?

822
00:53:07,872 --> 00:53:10,672
Because I think if you're too confident, you're going to be caught flat-footed.

823
00:53:11,132 --> 00:53:16,852
Well, that's certainly true for software, for AI, in part because the services business is going to be disrupted.

824
00:53:16,852 --> 00:53:19,992
But I, too, am not worried about the quantum risk.

825
00:53:20,132 --> 00:53:21,852
We typically can see that coming.

826
00:53:22,332 --> 00:53:35,512
The cryptographers will tell you, for example, that when SHA-1 was broken by Chinese cryptographers in 2005, theoretically, it took 11 years for Google to actually brute force break SHA-1.

827
00:53:35,512 --> 00:53:53,792
let's check in on the state of the network before i wrap up right now it's block height 951 288

828
00:53:53,792 --> 00:54:02,412
the current u.s price to one bitcoin 74 650 that puts our sats per dollar at 1339 sats

829
00:54:02,412 --> 00:54:16,872
We are down a mighty 40.8% from our all-time high 232 days ago, October 6th, 2025, before the big liquidity event on October 10th.

830
00:54:16,872 --> 00:54:21,152
Retarget date set for May 29th with an upward adjustment of 0.9%.

831
00:54:21,152 --> 00:54:27,552
Currently, an impressive 27,063 Bitcoin nodes on the network.

832
00:54:27,652 --> 00:54:28,552
Where'd y'all come from?

833
00:54:29,252 --> 00:54:30,072
Where'd y'all come from?

834
00:54:30,072 --> 00:54:33,392
We are down 3.6% since the last show.

835
00:54:34,252 --> 00:54:35,112
Sorry about that.

836
00:54:35,892 --> 00:54:36,752
But you know what?

837
00:54:36,912 --> 00:54:40,372
It's just an opportunity to test your conviction and stack a little harder.

838
00:54:41,412 --> 00:54:42,972
State of the Network is just fine.

839
00:55:00,072 --> 00:55:02,992
All right, that leaves us at the end of the show.

840
00:55:03,092 --> 00:55:04,052
You know what that means.

841
00:55:04,472 --> 00:55:06,332
Links at thisweekinbitcoin.show.

842
00:55:06,812 --> 00:55:08,492
My goal is to give you a show

843
00:55:08,492 --> 00:55:10,112
that doesn't get too distracted by the emotions

844
00:55:10,112 --> 00:55:11,972
or what's happening in the macro picture,

845
00:55:12,052 --> 00:55:13,192
but just focuses on the signal.

846
00:55:13,572 --> 00:55:14,372
That way you can plan

847
00:55:14,416 --> 00:55:17,636
Yourself, your friends, your family, whatever it might be, your biz, I don't know.

848
00:55:18,176 --> 00:55:19,416
So let me know how I did with the boost.

849
00:55:19,716 --> 00:55:21,976
Also want to hear your thoughts on a fold card review.

850
00:55:23,256 --> 00:55:24,776
Anything else that came up during the show?

851
00:55:25,436 --> 00:55:31,576
Now, I'm going to try something that I really shouldn't do because I keep picking songs where I can't pronounce the artist's name, but they're good songs.

852
00:55:32,056 --> 00:55:36,256
And this week's Value for Value track is going to be something that I haven't done for a while.

853
00:55:36,496 --> 00:55:40,996
It's an instrumental track, and it's by Gawalt, or that's the track name.

854
00:55:40,996 --> 00:55:45,356
The track name is Gawalt, and the artist name is Absolute Absalom.

855
00:55:45,796 --> 00:55:46,496
See you next week.

856
00:55:47,296 --> 00:55:50,376
95% of your sats will go to the artist during the track.

857
00:56:10,996 --> 00:56:40,976
Thank you.

858
00:56:40,996 --> 00:57:18,923
Thank you

859
00:57:18,943 --> 00:57:24,163
This is a place where override pattern replied.

860
00:57:24,223 --> 00:57:30,143
"... nuncaего CHANGE отбойки sessizó как альтернативой Y

861
00:57:30,203 --> 00:57:35,903
... чер愛 yV exchanged笑-y".

862
00:57:35,903 --> 00:57:41,703
Climate change t先ならениям от dûRIES и punto-ulturer он envie

863
00:57:41,703 --> 00:58:11,683
Thank you.

864
00:58:11,703 --> 00:58:41,683
Thank you.