What's up freaks? This rip of RHR was brought to you by our good friends at CoinKite.
They produce the Cold Card Q, my favorite hardware wallet. It's got two secure enclaves,
it's got a full screen, full keyboard here. As you can see, if you're watching, if you can't watch,
just imagine something that looks like a BlackBerry. It allows you to create private
public key pairs offline in an arrogant fashion. Never have to connect the Cold Card Q to an
internet device you can sign transactions and pspts remotely in the most secure fashion if you're a
bitcoin power user and you're looking for the best security go pick up a cold card queue and go to
coin kite.com find the cold card queue there i think you go to cold card.com as well use the code
rhr for five percent off step up your security get a cold card queue it was also brought to you by our
good friends at stack work if you're looking for a great way to make kyc free sats stack work has
bounties go to stackwork.ai find their bounties page and contribute to the bounties you can make
bitcoin kyc free for completing the bounties if you're a developer looking to scoop up some easy
sets go check out the bounties contribute to them and stack some sets stackwork.ai stuff freaks this
rip was brought to you by our good friends at obscura obscura is the first vpn that can't log
your activity by design. Instead of empty promises, Obscura fully embraces the Bitcoin or don't trust
verify mantra. They can't log your traffic, even if they tried. Obscura believes that user data is
toxic waste. In addition to private payments via lightning, you can sign up with an account without
having to give any personal identifying information. It's a beautiful thing. It's the VPN I use every
day. It's incredibly fast. You can go on streaming sites with it. They don't say, hey, you've got a
VPN. It just works. Go to obscura.net, use the code RHR25 for 25% off in annual subscription.
This is an incredible deal. Obscura.net, RHR25 for 25% off in annual subscription.
like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to
devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention,
you probably should be.
Doggy, our pet's heads are falling off. Trump not happy with China. Rare earth metal.
tariffs coming
markets crashing
we're here on a Friday afternoon
are you just dropping keywords
is that just for the outgo
yes pick it up
pick it up with the transcript
Charlie
I um
dude too soon that's fucked up
um
I can't believe that was only four weeks ago
yeah
what was the title of last week's episode
uh
It aged really poorly.
No, the real title.
The real title?
Was it Bitcoin is going much higher?
Yeah, we've only gone down since that title.
I think it was Bitcoin is going much higher.
Hey, hey, timescales, timescales, low time preference.
It is going much higher.
Maybe not this week.
I agree.
Definitely over the long run.
I opened up Fountain yesterday,
and I just laughed when I read the title.
I was like, oops.
Yeah, rabbit hole recap.
377.
We're on 378 now.
377.
Bitcoin is going much higher.
What did you call it this week?
What are we running with?
Bitcoiner wins Nobel Peace Prize.
Who won?
Did you catch this?
No.
They gave it to me?
It is, I don't want to butcher her name.
Maria Mikado.
I think was her name.
Let me double check.
Maria Corina Mercado.
She's a Venezuelan opposition leader
and
loves the coin.
Big fan of the coin.
Alex Gladstein interviewed her last year.
Love that.
On a podcast. It exists out there.
You can go find it.
I don't have a handy link for you.
This is a trade-off I'll take.
A nice little correction dump.
But a coiner wins Nobel Peace Prize.
Take your wins where you can get them.
The first of many.
We're going to start sweeping that shit.
It's just going to be Bitcoiner after Bitcoiner.
It's inevitable.
Everybody's going to be a Bitcoiner
by the end of the next decade.
You're going to have Bitcoin and Nobel Peace Prize winners
every year.
Let's start off.
Let's go to Clark's dashboard.
Let's get out of the way.
We're talking about the price dumping.
It's going to be a tight rip this week, freaks.
Tight rip.
The Nashville crew had a busy week.
We'll talk about it.
Yeah.
Guys, hold on to your butts.
The current price of Bitcoin is only $117,840.
Oh my god, the world is falling.
Sats are on sale.
One cuck buck is going to get you $849 sats.
We're at a $2.35 trillion market cap.
We're currently at block height 918,469, which means we are 827 blocks away from the next difficulty adjustment.
I recall last week when we read this, it was looking like a negative 10% adjustment.
Blocks have sped up a little bit since then.
Looks like the next adjustment is going to be on October 6th, the next Thursday.
October 16th, excuse me.
It's looking like a negative 7.1% adjustment right now.
block's been coming in at 10 minutes 45 seconds on average there are currently 309 excuse me 3,946
transactions in clark's mempool if i pull up mempool.space uh there are 49 497 transactions
in that mempool mempool is not empty you need to attach a five sat per vbyte transaction fee if you
want to get to the next block four sats per vbyte if you're willing to wait a little bit
And if you're willing to wait over a day,
one sat per V-byte should work.
But I would imagine you don't even have to wait that long.
Yeah, it's going to be less than a day, bro.
Yeah.
Interesting guess.
I just sat down with Vince Lancey, VBL's ghost, on Twitter.
I've been following him for years.
He's a gold bug.
Does he have any coin?
He does have coin.
He likes the coin.
We like our gold bugs here.
We like our gold bucks.
But he had a...
I mean, this has been an ongoing conversation
that we've been having on this show
as it pertains to mempools specifically.
And I really like this framing
towards the end of the conversation.
Not too many spoilers here,
but all Bitcoin needs to do is survive.
And even if people aren't using it in the meantime,
it just needs to survive and be there
and take advantage of a moment
when it's ready to shine.
And just because mempools are empty and people aren't using it now, just the fact that it's surviving is a good thing.
Survive until the opportune time to release thrust on the market is how he framed it.
I thought that was interesting.
He was using gold as an example, particularly.
We talked about the gold on warrants at the Shanghai Exchange.
And he said that's a perfect example of it.
China had the gold.
It was in the Shanghai Exchange.
and when the opportune time arose to sort of throw a wrench
in the dollar reserve system, they put that gold to work.
I just thought that was interesting.
I'm just, look, gold is, I do love the meme, like,
oh, well, what if we were wrong?
What if it was just, it turns out to be gold?
But look, I think the gold bugs are directionally right,
but I think ultimately
Bitcoin is significantly better
so we'll see how it plays out.
You can see that
Bitcoin's properties are better.
Oh, I didn't realize
I have my
VPN on right now
I have Obscura on
so I'm going to turn it off real quick.
I might disconnect momentarily.
You're coming in nice and clear.
Are you worried about it?
God, we got confused all coiners in the YouTube comments.
Once a quarter, can you guys commit to getting drunk for an RHR?
We haven't done it in a while.
We used to get plastered.
And Matt goes, Nick's fan, 2834.
I've got young kids.
We record early in the afternoon.
We're at 1031 now.
We represent the fund in our investors.
It's a little bit uncouth to get plastered.
for an RHR, but maybe I'll start having more drinks once a while.
I'll get better.
We're fine before.
Yeah, so I mean, I think that's an interesting thing to watch play out, right?
The gold ratio.
I mean, if you look at, I saw Stoney specifically posted it this week,
our resident rock slinger.
but that gold the like the price of bitcoin in gold terms we haven't hit an all-time high yet
um and it kind of looks like it's coiling on it and obviously gold has been running like crazy
um so if you do it in market cap terms like gold has just added trillions and trillions of dollars
onto its market cap which is kind of astounding to watch and like basically the majority of the
world is just completely oblivious to it maybe not capital allocators but like majority of people
are. So I think Bitcoin follows and then supersedes, but we'll see how it plays out.
On to our title topic, there's a couple of pieces there about Maria Mikado winning the
Nobel Peace Prize. I see Soap Miner just zapped us 21,000 sats in our Nostra live chat. Easiest
way to join the Nostra live chat is by searching for Primal in your favorite app store or using
any Nostra-enabled live chat. All of our links are at rhr.tv. Soapminder says, Soapminder will
always accept Bitcoin no matter how low it goes. And I don't think he accepts gold. That'd be quite
impractical. I'd have to mail him gold fragments for soap. So a couple of pieces here. First off,
here in Nashville at Bitcoin Park.
We co-hosted the Global Bitcoin Summit with HRF.
It was our third annual Global Bitcoin Summit.
It's part of the reason why I'm absolutely exhausted.
But it was a great week as usual.
The other reason I'm absolutely exhausted
is because my son got me sick.
But the show must go on.
Alex and his team at HRF do an absolute fire job.
Global Bitcoin Summit is a small event, intimate, high signal.
We bring activists and Bitcoin builders,
basically all types of Freedom Tech builders,
to Nashville, to Bitcoin Park.
And we have a great few days.
So I'm on the tail end of that.
That was awesome.
You can find out more information about HRF at hrf.org
and Bitcoin Park at BitcoinPark.com.
Now, on to the Nobel Peace Prize piece.
That ties in really nicely into two polymarket topics this week.
And as the freaks know, prediction markets are something
we've been very excited about for a very long time.
Failed for that hype cycle multiple times with false starts,
but it finally seems like we are in the prediction market timeline.
It is happening. It is all coming together.
first off polymarket raised from uh ice not not the immigration customs informant
the other ice uh the interest was it yeah which is the owner of nyse they raised at a nine billion
dollar valuation um two billion dollars at a nine billion dollar valuation so a little over
20% of that company, which is insane.
But
there probably is, in terms of prediction markets, it's probably going to be a winner takes most game.
We'll see if it's actually Polymarket. On that news, Polymarket
also added Bitcoin deposits and withdrawals. Finally, it's about
fucking time. You can finally use the Apex digital
money to bet on the top prediction market.
um and then last but not least uh it predicted this nobel prize winner uh about 16 hours before
the announcement came out and it was a single anon account that just came in and aped and big
which has always been the thesis of prediction markets people are like oh it's insider trading
like blah blah it's like no the whole point is that random anons can leak information and make
bank off of it and then we can all benefit off of the information like that is like the
you know the the key fundamental of what makes prediction markets incredibly intriguing in terms
of accurately predicting future events is that it's using market forces to incentivize information
leak so i thought that was pretty fucking i think this is the first time we've really seen that you
know obviously prediction markets like there's market dynamics of predicting things that have
a lot of external information and people analyzing them, stuff like
predicted the election win early. But that wasn't really insider information.
One of the coolest aspects about prediction markets is
you have a small group of people that know about something and
there's a game theory Mexican standoff. It's like, who's going to make the Anon
account and make bank off of Polymarket first?
And I saw the 1031 intern was tweeting
are people saying that anon shouldn't be allowed on polymarket yeah they're like saying that it's
like insider trading that there shouldn't be anon accounts i would the prediction market that is
going to be winner takes the one that's going to be the most liquid and the most effective is going
to be the one that allows anon accounts you absolutely need it because you need to be able to
you need to be able to uh you won't have an efficient market unless people can do it anonymously
and not risk external repercussions for trading on information that is not known.
Yeah.
Let the anons flourish.
Well I wonder with ICE the International Commodities Exchange stepping in as a large investor do you think Polymarket gets cupped with KYC Yeah I think that why it super interesting because they might ruin it They might ruin their lead There a decent shot
Also, the way it's built is very decentralized
and name only, as is the case with a lot
of altcoin stuff.
The argument that has been made up until this point is that, oh, we have no control over it.
you know, this is a self-custody smart contract protocol where we're not actually taking custody
of funds and we can't control the markets. I think that argument is, you know, loose at best
in courts. This is how it plays out. But the other piece is like, if you're sitting on a,
if you spend $2 billion on an asset, people tend to overcomply in those types of situations,
right? They try and reduce risk and they can end up shooting themselves in the foot.
so yeah if anyone
yeah go on
intercontinental exchange not international
what did we say commodity
intercontinental exchange
but the important part is that it's the parent
company of NYSC and it's
not customs enforcement
so we nailed those two
what if immigration is a custom enforcement
it was like you know what we need to diversify away
from security
they bought Polymarket
but yeah the anonymous part is the and you know like people like to go to extremes or whatever but
the extreme people in the early days of prediction markets went with was assassination markets
yeah and the idea was like if someone if someone knew that like a gang was going to try and
assassinate someone or terrorists are going to assassinate someone all it takes is one of those
terrorists to be willing to anonymously bet on it to make bank.
And then you would get an advanced notice of it ahead of time.
And like, so that's an extreme.
And there's obviously a bunch of, you know,
less extreme cases where you have insider information,
but in a free market, like there just is no insider information.
It's just more information that hasn't been traded on yet.
And if you want this to be interesting,
if you want this to actually be helpful for the world,
you need to have anonymous accounts.
And it should be interesting because I bet you it's going to become,
I'm calling it here first,
it's going to become more and more of a talking point
in terms of Polymarket if they continue to find success.
Yeah, I think they're definitely going to get a KYC route, get cucked.
It will be like what we saw with altcoin exchanges
in the 2015 to 2021 era.
One will get shut down or completely cucked and another will pop.
Well, they do have the dyno aspect.
I haven't gone fully into it because I'm not trying to read six shitcoin white papers.
But there's smart contracts involved and stuff.
So I could see the main front end.
Look, the majority of people that are trading on this thing are probably doing it with bank accounts and stuff.
So they're already bagged and tagged.
I think as long as there is a way for power users, if it's a little bit more friction,
But if there's a way for power users to still bet on these markets anonymously, that should be enough.
But if they completely close all the doors...
So my guess is it's probably actually, at least in the short to medium term, will be something in the middle.
Where the majority of users are KYC'd, but there's the ability for people to go inside.
And it has to be in size.
It can't be a path where someone can only bet $5,000.
Someone needs to be able to put a half a million dollars on insider information
for these things to be really accurate and honest.
Well, we saw this, and I don't think it was off,
or it wasn't off insider information.
It came out.
There's two points here.
The French guy who went in big on Trump,
basically he was scraping cement and pulling data.
I think his size was like $28 million or something like that.
Yeah, but we knew who he was.
Yeah.
But to that point, too, I think, just doing a retrospective, there were many people who thought polymarket and prediction markets specifically wouldn't gain popularity outside of election cycles.
Everybody thought.
Yeah, that was always the big use case.
Yeah.
Everybody was convinced that polymarket was going to have its 15 minutes of fame around the election and then die out.
And I think, objectively, that's proven not to be the case.
I mean, the crazy part was less than a year ago, he had his apartment.
The founder had his apartment raided.
It was like...
I forgot about that.
From gulags to billionaire in record time.
It's like eight months, nine months.
Which is pretty impressive.
I mean, that's just awesome.
That's just pretty fucking cool on his part.
What's his name?
Shane something.
Shane Coiner?
Let me see.
I just said that.
And, uh, I mean, there was a lot of investors he, he, he posts like after the fact, just,
I think today or yesterday, he announced that there was a couple of quiet rounds that happened
during that period. So like shout out to the investors who were willing to take a risk on him
while he was like 10 steps away from a gulag. Um, but like on that, on that French guys thing,
right. You know, the, the, it's an interesting thought process to go down in a free market world,
what is insider information and what isn't insider information.
Right?
Because presumably, I think there's an interesting philosophical argument to be had about there
not being insider information.
And it's just information that hasn't been traded on yet.
And in the case, I think on the legal side, there's a case that's like, if you're public
officers and you have a fiduciary duty to your shareholders, then maybe that's where there's
insider information, right? Because it's a predatory relationship. You're breaking that
fiduciary responsibility you have with your shareholders and you're trading on it ahead of
time. But if shareholders aren't involved and you're trading on open markets, prediction markets
that are about external events, I just don't think there's actually insider information.
There's just things that haven't been traded on. But anyway, to my point, I'm that French guy that
did 28 million. What's really interesting there, right. Is like, who has ever historically in
elections, who has been, who has the incentive to do polls? It's the politicians. Um, it's the
people that maybe are, you know, buying the politicians off or supporting them in the
background. And then there's media outlets that want clicks. Um, but now there's like a whole
underground analysis industry that's kind of popping up that like, if you can do quiet polling,
that you're not publicly releasing
and getting better data than anyone else,
all of a sudden there's an incentive
for having really, really strong private polling
because then you can trade on it
before the rest of the market realizes it.
Yeah, I forgot that part.
That's what he was doing, right?
He was sending emails to random people.
He was doing the polling himself, actually.
Yeah, pretty fucking cool.
It is cool.
I love this shit.
There's this new prediction market that I discovered called Predix, P-R-E-D-Y-X.com.
Horrible name, guys.
But that's a Lightning native.
It doesn't have that much liquidity.
But I'm so happy that Polymarket, the most liquid one, added Bitcoin finally.
That's how it was always supposed to be.
Yeah.
Come on.
Polymarket, great name.
Kalshi, okay name.
Kalshi, they're going to go the Uber, Google route.
Predix with a YX, terrible name.
You got to say it every time.
Predix with a YX.
If you have to say the caveat, you're fucked up, guys.
You're not going to get a $9 billion valuation.
It's a really cool interface, Predix.
you can sign in with a
oh did I fuck it up?
it's not Predix
did I spell it wrong?
no I see it
beta.predix.com
oh but if you just go to
predix.com it gives you a weird login
if you go to beta.predix.com
I know but if you just do
but if you just do
predix.com it doesn't actually go to the beta site
that's stupid
it just goes to an email and password
or login form.
I like the bread.
Beta.predix.com with a YX.
The interface is great.
You can sign in with Lightning.
They have some interesting Bitcoin markets.
They had a bunch of stuff around Core V30
that obviously is actually more liquid
than Polymarket in that front
because it's just something that
a tiny subset of Bitcoiners actually care about.
It's pretty cool.
Play around with it.
You can sign with Lightning.
You can do Lightning deposits, Lightning withdrawals.
It doesn't seem like it's quote-unquote decentralized.
I think it's just a custodial Lightning wallet.
Pretty cool.
It's really cool.
I've never used Polymarket.
Have you?
No, because they didn't accept Bitcoin.
I tried to bet on the election.
and then I was just like, do you have Polygon or this or that?
I was like, no, fuck you.
Prediction markets are here.
They got angry about it.
It's a fascinating time.
I see Goulet in the primal comments saying,
Shane is now officially the youngest self-made billionaire.
I want to be clear here.
That is the most retarded headline because there have been younger people that have been self-made billionaires in the past.
He's just the youngest current one.
He's like 27 or 28.
It's still impressive.
It's still super impressive, but it's such an asterisk of a headline, youngest self-made billionaire.
But it's because Mark Zuckerberg's older and shit.
I think most people don't realize that.
It's wordsmithing.
Yeah. I mean, look, it's just, it's incredibly impressive that he like launched this thing in his bathroom during COVID as a solo founder, just like all on his own.
And then made it to, you know, massive billionaire status in a few years is super impressive itself.
Like you don't have to like make up.
Just a humble picture.
You don't have to like mislead people.
New York City, you know.
Yeah, right.
Super, super humble.
Predix has Luke Dasher hard forks
to save Bitcoin at 29% right now.
Ooh.
I would take that.
What do you think?
Yeah, so that's October 10th.
Core version 30 has been released.
Is Bitcoin dead?
According to Men's World About Space,
block was produced 11 minutes ago.
As I said many times in the past,
even before all this drama,
you shouldn't just immediately rush to update the latest version.
So I have no intention of updating
pretty much anytime soon.
Let's see how it all plays out.
One of the cool things that the core maintainers do
is that they maintain security patches for the last three.
So 29 will stop being updated only after 33 gets released,
which I think is pretty awesome.
And it just goes to show that they also don't think
you should be rushing to new releases.
And to me, the concern is the things
that you're not even thinking about.
like maybe there's
you know even you know there's so much distraction about the
op return relay rules being relaxed that like something else
slipped through or something like that well on that note I recorded
with Insta Gibbs yesterday to go over this we talked about
the later version
he's actually he was on the live stream that we did a bit
BTC++ in May.
And I asked him, I was like, what do you think about all this?
He's like, honestly, after that conference, I just started focusing on other things in core
because it came clear to him that there was not going to be
a resolution on the op-return drama.
And so we did talk about op-return, how things get implemented
at core, what are the trade-offs, but we mainly focused on the other stuff
included in v30
as it pertains to IBD.
I look forward to listening to it.
That'll be out next week.
I thought Antoine did a great episode recently
with Danny on what Bitcoin did too.
If you want the core dev perspective.
The sky isn't falling.
the people that are like trying to scare you into just changing what software you run
um are on the wrong side of history here in my humble opinion um and you can rage at me
all you want about it yeah we said it two weeks ago i think we're gonna look back a year from now
and find that uh it was relatively inconsequential could be wrong
i will eat crow if i if i am wrong but i don't know having been around the block for a while
it's the way it seems to be
um
alright we got no list so we're just riffing here
uh I've got something I
can pull up
uh
obviously gold's ripping
bitcoin's ripping the debasement trade
has become
sort of popular meme
in wall street you have Goldman Sachs
JP Morgan
Mohammed Al
Irane talking about it
I think we touched on this lightly last week but
But people in tech still don't get this.
This guy, Nikita Beer, who joined Twitter recently,
helped him on UX.
He tweeted out yesterday that gold and Bitcoin is acting
like we're about to enter a period of hyperinflation,
but no one realizes that AI is deflationary.
It is hilarious to me.
From what I understand, I've seen this guy on X and Twitter
and followed him.
Do I follow him?
I don't follow him.
We still got a rich man.
he's very often retweeted. But these people in Silicon Valley,
it's like... But no one realizes that AI is deflationary.
It's like all tech is deflationary. It has been for
all human history. TVs are cheaper.
We streaming over the internet now If you tried to do this only 10 years ago it would not work the way it is It cheaper It faster And despite this tech deflation
prices are rising.
Because no matter how much you make technology
more productive and more efficient
and lean into Jevons Paradox,
it cannot combat the ills of the money printer.
You can have incredible orders of magnitude
increases in tech efficiency and productivity,
but as long as the government is issuing debt and printing money,
costs are still going to rise.
People ingrained in Silicon Valley still don't understand this.
We need a pair.
They just fucked up the money so bad
that it still can't counteract it.
No.
I probably won't be able to find it
off with a quick search, but I'm sure you've all seen
the chart of different changes in prices over time.
And you have education,
healthcare, food, electricity, housing, all up
and to the right increasingly. And then going down, it's like TVs, computers,
other technology
things going down and to the right. And yes, the
prices for these things are falling the cost to do them but the money printing is so overwhelming
that we cannot reap the benefits of that that tech deflation that exists and is ubiquitous
throughout our economy and that's why we need to pair this tech deflation like the optimal
if you want the optimum benefits of this tech deflation you need to pair it with a scarce
monetary system so that people can spend less over time as the purchasing power of their money
is increasing.
So I wanted to pull that up.
Very Spencer Schiff take
from Nikita Beer.
Remember Spencer Schiff?
He sold all his big money.
Because AI is going to make
an abundant future.
Yeah, Peter's son.
Yeah.
My internet's all fucked up right now.
I, uh...
Can you hear me?
Uh, yes, I can hear you.
You should turn your VPN back on.
It was much better when that was on.
I think it might have been the Nostro chat that was killing me.
I just X'd out of it.
The more interesting thing is,
I don't remember, when did Dorsey make his hyperinflation tweet?
And everyone lost their fucking shit.
I think the more interesting thing is
normie influencer Nikita,
tech influencer Nikita is just nonchalantly
talking about the hyperinflation trade.
It's just been completely normalized,
the belief that we're entering a hyperinflationary period,
or at least a high inflationary period.
Yeah.
Dorsey, October.
almost exactly four years ago,
four years ago in 12 days,
hyperinflation is going to change everything.
It's happening.
And what was the Nikita tweet?
The specific wording, it started with,
it's like, oh, the timeline's all worried
about hyperinflation now.
And yeah, it is.
The debasement trade is also
just like a worse meme version
of the term hyperinflation.
I don't think the suits make
the best memes. I don't know if debasement trade is going to stick. It's like kind of...
I like it. I like it. You don't like it?
Yeah. I mean, I'm fading that one, but it's true. It is a debasement trade. I think it's like a
little bit reactionary of a term. It's not a positive term. It's a reaction term, right? It's
an anti something. But yeah, we're entering an inflationary period. I think it's really,
or we've been in one for a while. And I think it's too far, it's too far gone. There's no going
back from it. It doesn't matter if the US government and the Fed become more responsible
with how they manage our system. It doesn't matter if tech is deflationary and we have massive AI
in terms of GDP growth and costs going down.
I think the train has left the station
and there's no stopping it.
You should just stumble and stack stats about it.
On that note, Logan, pull up the Parker tweet first,
then my tweet second.
Parker, good friend of the show, good friend of mine and Matt,
he's been tracking the price of ribeyes
at, I believe this is Whole Foods,
in Austin over time.
And since June, the price of a ribeye,
same ribeye, same store, up 6.2% since June.
Now 34.49, that's a 90% annualized rate of growth
for the price of the ribeye at this store.
So the compound annual inflation is 12.6%
since his prior update in 2024.
cumulative 72.5% increase since 2020.
So it's double the price in five years.
Bitcoin is the only way out.
And that's the thing with these events
is unless you're highly perceptive,
like Matt, myself, Parker,
others in the Bitcoin space,
you're really not going to recognize it.
So pull up my tweet.
I was having a conversation,
I forget with who this week,
but really hearkening back to
Weimar inflation.
This is the change in gold price of Marks
over a 14-year period.
Here's the annual chart of Bitcoin
over a 9-year period.
I love this chart.
I enjoy the chart, but it's so stupid.
Just annual candles for Bitcoin
is just...
It's a little bit young to make it an annual chart,
but I like how aggressive the green candles are.
It's provocative.
But no, that's what I'm saying.
The crazy part, the big takeaway from tweets like Nikita's
and other tweets that we've seen in macro land
over the last two weeks, three weeks,
is that the Overton window has significantly shifted.
You said most people aren't paying attention.
The average person, I have friends.
I know, guys, this is crazy.
I have friends that are not Bitcoiners.
they know that it's that inflation is ripping.
They have a complaining about costs left and right all the time.
Like they know their groceries are expensive.
They know everything is getting way, way, way more expensive.
Like they're not, they're not sitting there and being like, Oh, CPI is,
you know, two and a half percent or whatever, like inflation's under control.
They're well aware.
If anything, they might even think it's even more extreme than it actually is
because they don't really have much savings.
It's happening.
Like there, there's a, there's a realization that's happening.
And it's hard to measure it, but you can feel it in the air.
You can feel it in the air, and that's part of the reason why gold's ripping.
That's probably the main reason that gold's ripping.
But it's going to happen with Bitcoin.
People are going to slowly start to realize that Bitcoin is a massive tool in the arsenal to protect yourself and empower your family.
Yeah.
On that note, especially if you're a small business owner,
you've been handed a tool that can help you navigate that this week.
Big news from Square.
Long time coming.
This was awesome.
Literally since Cash App added Buy Sell Bitcoin in 2018,
people have been asking when Bitcoin and Square terminals.
and earlier this week, Square had their release event two days ago.
I don't know where it was, but they announced that.
It was in New York, I think.
In New York.
They announced that immediately every Square terminal owner
will be able to sweep a part of their card payments into Bitcoin up to 50%.
and as of November 10th,
Bitcoin payment acceptance will be live for everyone.
So when's going to terminal?
Now.
Huge shout out to Miles and Jack and the rest of their team.
We've said in the past,
the dichotomy between what Block is building
versus the leverage Bitcoin equity plays,
like just a full stack Bitcoin powerhouse,
publicly traded company,
is a massive dichotomy.
I think one of the big pieces of news here is
I think it's no fee.
I think if you convert a portion of your fiat into Bitcoin,
you're not paying a fee on it.
Until 2027, I think they're trying to hook me in.
That's awesome.
And then the big one for us Bitcoiners
that are actually holding the majority of our savings
of Bitcoin and have historically needed to convert it to dollars
in order to spend it on things is being able to spend directly starting November 10th.
And I don't know, did they give details on how that works?
If I remember correctly, the original plan was it would be on by default,
but it would convert to dollars on their end, which is fine.
Unless the merchant changed it.
I'm not sure on the specifics. I heard people saying it was opt-in.
so I guess we'll see next month
go find a local business that's using a square terminal
and test it out for yourself
but I guess that's an interesting thought experiment
we can run down right now
so there's 4 million square customers
businesses running square terminals in the United States
what percentage of that 4 million
do you think leans into this?
I mean a very small percenter first
But I mean, that's why the more important thing to me is that it's that I'm able to pay with Bitcoin by default and it doesn't change their books on their end.
Like they're just getting dollars.
I feel like that's that's that's the cheat code because it's it's soft.
Right. Like we shouldn't be forcing merchants to hold Bitcoin.
No, I think I think eventually they will realize that they want to hold Bitcoin.
and whether that's converting a portion of dollars
or actually keeping Bitcoin that they receive
is really neither here nor there.
I think that's going to be a slower process.
But I don't know.
It's kind of cool that it's a slider, right?
So it's like, is there really that much risk
of just switching 5% of your inbound into Bitcoin?
Your business is not going to live or die off of that.
No.
Yeah, and Logan, pull up the, yeah, so I quote tweeted Miles and got this response.
I thought this was interesting.
This gentleman, Glenn Charles, said we've been part of the beta for two years.
Everybody's been like, when are they even focusing on it?
So it seems like they've been working meticulously trying to make sure they launch a good experience for at least two years.
Well, specifically, that's the conversion thing has been going for that long.
The actual Bitcoin payments has been a relatively recent thing.
Yeah, but Glenn also said this has been instrumental in our success.
I'm so excited for all the Square businesses that can now take advantage of this feature.
And so this is the type of quote-unquote corporate Bitcoin adoption that you want to see.
Small businesses that are ingrained in your community.
Really cool.
Have skin in the game in your community, adopting it.
And that's, what is the critical tipping point?
How does the word get out?
That's actually something I would be interested in.
And I'm sure Miles has thought of this, Jack's thought of this, and others.
But having people use it and then launching anonymous data about it over time.
Like, hey, this business converted 15% of their card payments into Bitcoin over this period of time.
And this is what it did to the value of their balance sheet.
That would be extremely helpful.
Yeah, I mean, they have all that data.
I see someone in the YouTube comments.
So my understanding is that all the square terminals
where you can spend Bitcoin at will be added to BTCMap.
So you'll be able to just open up BTCMap.
And ideally, they'll probably add BTCMap itself into Cash App
and see everywhere that Bitcoin's accepted.
But that'll be awesome. I think that's great.
And I guess another note on this too,
So if I recall Miles' presentation from Vegas this year,
this was way ahead of schedule.
They said they were going to launch it out Q1, 2026,
and they launched it earlier this week.
So that's good to see too.
No, I mean, I had Jack on dispatch in February or late January.
And they weren't even considering it at that point.
I asked him, he's like, Bitcoin should be used as money.
And we're like, when square terminals?
He's like, well, that's way far off.
We're not at that point in the adoption.
And so it's been less than a year.
It's been less than a year since that.
So pretty cool how quick they're moving.
I forget who from their team posted about it, but someone from their team was like,
there was a sea change at that org in the last year and a half.
And now they're operating much more like a startup again, like very lean, very quick.
really cool to see
I see Bitcoin Ranger
zapped us 21,000 sats
in the live chat
keep building locally freaks
been working on orange pulling local food
producers and merchants
got 20% off fresh caught salmon
for using Bitcoin with them
tap those incentives
get it done
I will say since
since the Vegas conference
and they like soft teased
the alpha launch of Bitcoin acceptance
and Square terminals. I've been paying attention
to which local merchants have Square terminals
and which don't.
And I have some really good ones
that do, so I'm pretty excited to be able to spend
Bitcoin there.
Well, there's also some
big companies that use it too. I think like Warby Parker
uses Square.
It'll be interesting to see those bigger box
stores. I'm pretty sure.
It's mostly small businesses, I think.
Yeah.
I'm going to pull it out.
But I could see Warby started it as a small business,
and then as they got bigger, they kept it.
Yeah.
So ALR, as he works at Square, was saying,
or at Block, was saying,
tech debt, process debt, restructuring
an 11,000-person org to face new challenges,
cultural shift to lead on AI and open source and protocols maintaining stability and global macroeconomic nonsense consistent quarter profit GBV growth And so I think Block as an organization has been in a big cultural
and technical process re-architecture for a few years.
And it will be interesting to see how these AI tools help these merchants as well.
And if they give them insights into what the best cash flow management
strategy is for them as it pertains to Bitcoin
as well.
Block is converting 10% of their profits into Bitcoin,
which is awesome.
There's a profitable company stacking to treasury.
It should probably be higher.
If you're a profitable small business,
I think you turn that dial up.
Some of the most successful private companies we back at 1031
are at the 90%, 95%.
They keep two, three months runway in dollars,
and then the rest is just all in Bitcoin,
which is probably closer to the right number.
But it depends on your actual situation.
I guess to wrap up the square conversation,
Jack quickly tweeted out after the announcement
that it's time to get a de minimis tax exemption,
to which Senator Lummis quote tweeted him
and said, we're working on it, we have a bill.
So it looks like the drums of getting a de minimis exemption
for Bitcoin payments are beginning to beat a little louder.
Who knows if they'll catch on, but that would be massive.
I think any Bitcoin payment should not have taxes on it.
Bitcoin is money.
Trump should just follow through on his promises
of cutting taxes significantly
and just get rid of all cap gains tax across all assets.
Period. Not just Bitcoin.
Come on, Donald. Let's do it.
Do a tariffs-only tax strategy.
Excuse me, that was rude of me.
President Trump, let's do it.
Come on, President Trump.
I keep instinctively going back to Signal looking for the list.
I keep forgetting we don't have a list.
What else happened this week?
There's no list.
I think last week we forgot to read the boosts from Fountain.
I don't think we did.
You want to read last week's boosts?
This week or whatever?
Yeah, we did forget.
There you go.
So,
So, top things from Apple.
3.76, all in Bitcoin,
Foyze, 21,000 sets,
Chicago meetup, Sunday, October 19th at 1 p.m.
Discussion on urban egg mining
and building out a Chicago Bitcoin event
and hacker space.
See Primal for location details.
So this is good.
Also visit PubKey Manhattan, Sunday, October 26th.
I'll be cooking my own menu for the night.
Shout out to the PubKey crew.
So, late, but,
the information is not stale.
It is pertinent, and you have time.
So Sunday, October 19th at 1 in Chicago,
and Sunday, October 26th,
I'm assuming Sunday night at PubKey in Manhattan,
if you want to enjoy some of Foyze's cooking.
22,222 sats,
twos across the board,
pound drum boost from stimmy,
hashtag 40 hours per week.
With the headphones on, Odell,
that was a good dispatch,
with Seth for Privacy 9.
I know why you reminded me to read these.
If Ashigaru doesn't yet have much proof of work,
what sorts of things would you like to see
from the project to achieve?
Also, shout out to Vaik.
BitcoinTutorials.org is really cool.
I see Vaik in the Primal live chat.
So Vaik getting some props from Stimmy.
What would you like to see from Ashigaru?
I don't know.
It just needs more time.
we talked about it on the show
I thought that was funny because he zapped
RHR so you got half of
my zap
that was a zap for dispatch
he knew Vake was going to be listening
fair enough
no I mean just someone had told me that we hadn't read boost
that's why I knew we didn't read boost
those were the only two boost
over 21,000 sats
for Rabbit Hole Recap 376
Rabbit Hole Recap 377
Bitcoin is going much higher over the long term.
Over the long term, it certainly is.
Maybe not since 377.
It's a little lower.
Global markets are getting crushed right now.
So S&P is down almost 2%.
Yeah, tariffs, tariffs, man.
Tariffing rare earth metals.
China negotiations not going well.
China, come on.
Get with it.
We need Bitcoin to pump.
Read 21,000 sats.
Western Mass regional Bitcoin meetup announcement.
Join us at 6 p.m. on Saturday, October 18th at the Dante Club in West Springfield to celebrate the third anniversary of the Western Mass Bitcoin meetup.
Pizza will be provided and there will be a cash bar.
If you mentioned you heard about us on RHR, you'll get a free laser engraved pint glass.
Wow.
RSVP at westernmassbitcoin.com.
Cheers.
That's great.
That's awesome.
I got a free laser engraved pint class.
I might have to go up to Western Mass on Saturdays.
I did too.
Those are the top boosts from the last two weeks.
Sorry for not reading them last week.
We were road-dogging it.
I'm still recovering.
Like I was telling you, you got to overdose on vitamin C.
I've been doing it all week, and it's been helping me get back.
I love it, yeah.
I've just been going ham on electrolytes.
Shout out Salt of the Earth.
Use Marty's RefLink.
I don't get anything for it.
Got it.
When Odell RefLink?
I've got to sit down with Sean.
We're going to revamp our Salt of the Earth position.
I think my family personally has,
I don't know how much money we'd put through the TFTC code
for Salt of the Earth, but it's a lot.
We're on the reoccurring sales.
I see someone in the comments asking once again
for us to comment on Core v30.
We literally commented about it.
We literally did already this episode.
But I would just say out there, guys,
if you're on the internet...
If you're making this your personality,
just rethink what you're doing.
And also, if you're making the argument
that open source developers should be liable for the code they write,
you should look in the fucking mirror and ask yourself if you're the baddie.
Just think real hard on that,
on what the implications are about open source developers
being liable for the code they write.
Because they're not forcing you to run anything.
So just think about it. Just think about it a little bit.
Are you turning into the spook that you're looking to run away from?
I'm not going to accuse anyone of being spooks,
but I think people should think long and hard about their actions.
this is cool to see
Logan pull this up
our boy Matthew Mazingshus from Porkopolis
Economics
he tweeted out earlier today
Bitcoin is on track to pass yet another milestone
this month becoming number one
across all cash money
central banks publishes data once a month
Bitcoin has never quote unquote closed a month
ahead of the US dollar notes
in coins ever printed slash minted
it could do so in October
So Bitcoin is digital cash.
Base money, Matthew is very principled and beats the drum.
If you're comparing Bitcoin to anything, it's base money, which includes cash and M0 across all the world's central banks.
And then gold and silver throw that in as well.
And it looks like Bitcoin's market cap will surpass the U.S. dollar in notes and coins.
The amount of notes and coins that exist in the market or floating in the market,
Bitcoin's market cap will be worth more than all the US dollar notes and coins that exist,
which is pretty cool.
I see.
That's awesome.
I see we got 21,000 sad zap from Beefsteak Josh.
He says, muah, ha, ha, ha, ha.
We've had the benefit.
I've had the benefit of having two beefsteaks over the last two weeks,
two separate events.
Really appreciate you,
Josh.
I love beef steaks.
Beef steaks are the fucking best.
If you've never been to a beef steak,
you're missing out.
Just amazing food,
amazing people.
And then we have our resident.
Yeah,
go on.
I was going to say,
I've been going to beef steaks for,
I mean,
like at least six,
seven years now.
They're only getting better.
they're only getting better in terms of the quality of the steak and the food and the recipes
no he's really he's really nailed nailed the recipe um i see um our resident winemaker ben
justman also zapped us 21 000 sats he says we're gonna win uh he told me how to pronounce his wine
but i forget i think it's peony peony i don't know peony peony peony peony peony he told me
how to pronounce it.
It's P-E-O-N-Y
Lane. Peony.
Peony Lane.
It's a very good one.
Great table one.
And then I see Dylan, chief of staff
of Strike, good buddy,
zapped 21,000 sets, and he
figured out how to
use a lightning wallet, which is pretty impressive.
And he's asking Marty...
I didn't even know he had Bitcoin.
He has some Bitcoin.
He scooped up some Bitcoin on Strike just to zap us.
He says, Marty, give us a scorching hot take,
something that makes Odell nervous.
I got to think about this one.
I've been avoiding the Blackfeet.
Look, he's already nervous.
I haven't even said anything yet.
He's scratching his heart.
No, I'm just –
There's someone in the YouTube live chat who can go fuck themselves.
Okay.
I don't know if I have a Scorching hot take right now.
What would make you nervous?
I don't know.
I don't know if I can make you nervous.
Yeah.
I mean, the whole Israel thing, it's like complete over 10 window shifts.
Nobody likes AIPAC anymore.
People are calling it out.
It's like, okay.
Yeah, I mean, that's a year.
that's a
we're gonna talk
talk about that
that's a consensus
take bro
that's yeah
exactly
it's like
everything's
everything's calmed
down now
it's like
I'm an old man
now I've got
three children
who was I
joking with
or 1031
I'm in
so I'm just like
I want to tap
a young zoomer
on the shoulder
and be like
I don't have it
in me anymore
brother
I can't fall
down these
rabbit holes
anymore
I'm gonna do it
I'm gonna focus
on bitcoin
adoption
and proliferation
where do we go from here
anything else we should touch on
I got nothing really
look I mean I think
I don't know I wasn't really paying attention to the news this week
I was really busy
what was the
most inspiring or the coolest thing
you saw this week
I don't know there's
a bit of
Chatham House rules
but
I
the coolest part is always working with the activists
you know we did the first activist
training session in 2019
in January 2019 at Cash App
headquarters it was like three
Bitcoiners and like nine activists.
Miles hosted
a cash up.
And the tools
fucking sucked. We were
using like GreenWallet, BTCPacer
didn't exist. Lightning
barely existed.
And we've come a long fucking way.
We've come really, really far.
One
of the activists was using Bolt12.
It's like, wow. It's like
the first time I saw a Bolt12 QR code
in the wild. I think Phoenix Wild is the only
thing that spends and receives from it.
But
it's always inspiring and then frustrating.
Because you realize
time is of the essence and you need to get shit done.
We need these things yesterday.
But then inspiring because
these people, their lives
are on the line on a constant basis.
I've just never had to live under that kind of pressure.
so
just want to do right by them
I was talking to somebody earlier this week
on a call
and
that's like
they were talking about Trojan Horse
like juxtaposing
you can juxtapose like what Jack's doing
at Block and Square and BitKey and Proto
and Spiral to Sailor
and the other treasury companies
when it comes to like optimism
for Bitcoin actually becoming money
it's like
what we're seeing with the activists,
how people in emerging economies are leveraging Bitcoin,
not because they want to, because they need to.
It's the only thing that works for them.
That's the thing that gives me confidence
that Bitcoin's ultimate success is,
I don't want to say inevitable,
but I'm very optimistic about it
because Bitcoin is a tool that can do things
that nothing else can do in people.
Whether you realize it or not here in the West,
people need it and they're using it, they're finding it.
It's getting better.
the UX is increasing and we should all be proud and happy that it's getting
better.
100%.
But still lots and lots of work to be done.
Can't pull our foot off the gas.
We need to accelerate.
We need to do more.
Time is of the essence.
That actually reminds me,
another piece that is becoming more and more important is private and secure
actually open AI tools.
And Maple had a huge release, a huge beta release,
over the last few days, a complete rewrite of their stack.
That includes a new test flight app on iPhone
and a new beta APK for Android.
So they're calling for people to test it and give feedback.
because it's going to completely new rewrite.
Trymaple.ai is their website.
But I'm pretty excited about it.
It works way better now.
It's fucking awesome.
It really does.
So we're really narrowing the gap between the proprietary
walled garden surveillance tools and the open alternatives,
the private secure open alternatives.
So really good to see.
does it have access to
is this one
has access to the internet?
that's going to be the next one
two weeks
I was playing around with it
just to do research
before my interview with Instagibs
and was asking about
core version 30
which model were you asking?
Deep Sequel R1
Yeah. So it's like the newer models, they have more up-to-date information, right? But they don't
have real information They just added the newest DeepSeq model and the newest open GPT model And so those both end late 24 or something in terms of their knowledge base But the real unlock is once
you have real-time search integrated as well
so that they can actually analyze
up to, like, actually up-to-date information
within the last hour or so.
And that's going to be a massive unlock.
And it's really hard to do in a privacy-preserving way,
which is why it's taken a while.
but
yeah
I'm pretty excited about that
shout out to those guys
and Logan
I'm going to respect your time this week
I'm not going to drag you
I know you want to do a tight hour
I know you're not feeling good
but
I wrote about this in the newsletter
and I just think
you know what
send everybody into the weekend
with good vibes
maybe good
I think
this will
I don't think it will arrange you
it may depress you a little bit
but also
it will inspire you by the end of it
Logan pulled up
I think everybody should watch this 15-minute short film by Sheehan Quirk,
known as the Cultural Tutor on Twitter.
We're not going to watch it now, though, right?
No, no, we're not watching now.
It's like 20 minutes.
I watched some of it because you posted it in one of our group chats.
I fat-fingered it.
Thank God it was that YouTube video that I sent in there by accident It was pretty funny the other one too I watched the other one The other one was good Marty sent the wrong YouTube video to a group chat
with all of our portfolio companies in it.
And then six hours later, it was like,
oops, my bad, this was the YouTube video I was supposed to send.
But the other one's a banger as well.
This is the accidental one.
So how did the world get so ugly?
The cultural tutor.
This was the mistake one, right?
Yeah.
This is really good.
Check.
Yeah.
No, I mean, like, I think vibes are high.
I think people should step away from the keyboard and touch grass a little bit.
And, you know, this is a...
Marty and his team made a 1031 focused AI video.
this week. That was awesome.
So thank you, Marty, for that. You're quite impressive.
What is it? Elijah is your...
Elijah. I can't take any... Elijah took his bull by the... He's one of the wizards.
He took the bull by the horns and did it Souped and not saw by himself But the reason I bring it up is because the core of it right It like build for 100 years
This shit is a marathon, not a sprint.
You got to lock in and you got to grind it out.
Yeah.
I literally just had that discussion with Vince Lancey for TFTC.
It'll come out next week.
he said, I'm a gold bug
Bitcoin will be massively successful
when I'm dead, not because he's dead
but it's going to take two generations, three generations
to really get it to where
it needs to be
and you, as somebody
who may not want to wait
three generations, maybe you don't have the luxury to
and you want it to happen now
you just have to
come to grips with the fact that it's not just going to happen now
it takes time
but we can accelerate it
we should accelerate it
yes
massive accelerationist vibes right now
accelerate
yeah
um
awesome
stay up with stack sets
peace and love freaks
peony