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sets stackwork.ai matt and i've been talking about privacy and the importance of using a vpn for
seven years now literally seven years i believe at least once every episode or two it's like hey
Make sure you're running a VPN.
I think it's especially important today
where you have governments in the UK,
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It is a VPN that cannot log.
Literally, by the way, it's designed.
A lot of VPNs will hand ways, say, we're not logging, we're not logging.
You can't trust them.
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Go to Obscura.net.
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Make sure you're using it, particularly if you're in one of these countries
where the governments are becoming extremely censorious
and targeting citizens that exhibit wrong things.
You should be running a VPN.
That VPN should be Obscura.
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at rhr salt of the earth you've been hearing matt and i talk about it quite a bit i drink multiple
packets up in a day you got to stay hydrated that's why my face looks so good so i'm getting
buff i'm able to get to the gym more because i'm hydrated matt he's looking incredible i'm sure
you've all noticed it you want to know why salt of the earth baby go to drinksauté.com use the
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she's right behind me right now laughing, but she's laughing because she knows it's true. She
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to tell you how much he's drinking. It's good. It keeps you hydrated. It keeps you alert,
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You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free.
When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts,
all the central banks going nuts.
So it's all acting like safe haven.
I believe that in a world where central bankers
are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency,
Bitcoin wins.
In the world of fiat currencies,
Bitcoin is the victor.
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
You probably should be.
Can you take me higher?
Woo doggy.
Vibes are high. Let's go.
Vibes are high.
Bitcoin price approaching $96,000 again.
It feels so much better on the way up than on the way down.
It really does.
It is insane how it does have this effect on your psychology.
Maybe we're a bit crazy and it shouldn't.
We should have let the price do that.
We should stay humble and stack sats, but it's inevitable.
I think it affects everybody.
You're either lying, you're just lying.
If you say it doesn't, you're lying to yourself or you're lying to others.
That's how it works.
I mean, enjoy the good times.
This could be a bull trap, freaks.
We could be getting bull trapped and head back down to 60K.
Straight to 70.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
Do you think it's a bull trap?
I don't know.
You know me.
Never get these predictions.
Is it officially a pump?
Like you, the...
Is the super cycle back on?
Year to date, we're up 6.62%.
Last month, we're up 9.6%.
Not quite yet.
I think...
Fuck.
I've been right as much as I've been wrong.
I've been directionally correct the entire time, though.
I mean, it depends on your time.
Bitcoin goes up.
Yeah.
I think the first episode, we were at $3,000 and said Bitcoin's going to go up from here.
Well, you know, I just had Corallo on dispatch, and it reminded me that the first rip I ever
did with you was right after you ripped with Corallo.
and Corallo was like, Bitcoin's an experiment.
It has like a 5% chance of succeeding.
It's like 2018 or something.
And I was like, fuck that pussy ass shit.
There's no shot in hell.
Bitcoin is going to the moon.
We got this thing.
I don't know.
It just reminded me because I had him on the show.
It was a good rate.
Over the years, Matt's probability of Bitcoin's long-term success
has consistently gone up.
So it's good to see.
But he hit me with it again on dispatch.
She was like, yeah, if this one scenario plays out like Bitcoin said, I was like, I don't think so.
What was the scenario?
We were talking about quantum.
We were gaming out quantum, different quantum scenarios.
And yeah, he was like, if someone steals 4 million, if some quantum attacker steals 4 million Bitcoin,
I'm paraphrasing, you should listen to the episode.
Search still to dispatch your favorite podcast app.
But he was like, if someone steals 4 million Bitcoin and dumps on the market, Bitcoin's dead and never recovers.
Why would they dump? I mean, you'd have to be a nihilistic hacker.
It was a great conversation.
You'd be a nihilistic hacker if she did that, right? It would have to be.
We went through all the scenarios. It was fun.
Yeah, I don't think, I mean, if you actually want to talk about making the most money out of that kind of attack,
like you wouldn't try and kill Bitcoin by dumping it all on the market.
They'd be retarded.
Yeah.
You'd launch a treasury company to compete with MicroStrategy and be like, we're never selling this Bitcoin.
mind the uh but i actually think it's the most like the thing that we've disagreed with the most
is i still think quantum like cryptographically relevant quantum computer that can like break
any of this shit is a hypothetical like i this is not like a real concern i have for this like
next 10 years um but i do think like if you see that type of attack i one of the i think our big
fundamental disagreements is that he thinks it's going to come from the startup ecosystem.
And I think it would come from a major government. Like it would be like a China or US.
Maybe you throw Israel in there, you know, maybe Russia. And it would be a, it would be like a dark
program from one of those governments. We wouldn't know about it. And it would probably go into the
stolen Bitcoin reserve alongside all the other stolen Bitcoin. And then people like when the
US government steals Bitcoin. So I doubt we'd have too much down pressure on that.
Yeah. I'm more interested when it comes to the quantum discussion, especially as we're
talking to Jonas Nick and Mikhail Kudinov from Blockstream a few weeks ago. That conversation
was really crystallizing in the sense of like, oh shit, you need to change multisig, PSPTs,
lightning network, potentially. How do you even prepare and begin that transition?
and luckily i mean they're very smart people thinking about this beginning to
um game plan how a transition would work but that's that's like a massive logistic
logistical nightmare is matt a fan of freezing quantum vulnerable yeah did you see what i named
the episode i've been on the street with good names stealing satoshi satoshis it hits double
hard because he works for block and block is trying to get rid of satoshi's as well so like
it's there's multiple levels to the name um but yeah i mean people should listen to the episode
but that that was me and him were arguing about it on nostril and that's what led to the podcast
in the first place because i think that's like a complete i think that's a complete non-starter
and so we game planned a lot of that did you see talking about my great names did you see what i
I named this episode? I retweeted the tweet, but they'll look at it.
Feds versus Fed. Great name. It is. We're just hitting 2026 with great podcast names.
And let me send a get in here. Quote tweet.
great time last night in DC
shout out to
the Bitcoin Policy Institute
and
team at PubKey
great establishment
they've
established
in DC
Bitcoin Policy Institute
top notch
very proud of
David Grant
Connor
Matt Pines
Gary
the whole crew over there
Mills
great conversations with Mills last night
other Zach
other Zach, Zach Shapiro
many others
Yael
I love when Marty does this
you get some stuff into the hole of trying to
name every single person
in an organization
you're going to start going through the pub key guys too
jerk
Thomas
Dan
I don't know if Thomas' wife's
public name if her name is public but her as well it is somewhere but we'll keep that uh close to
the chest great time very i mean it is one of the convenient factors moving back to the
philadelphia area i can hop on a train go down to dc hop up to new york and sleep in my own bed
yeah david was um david was happy that you that you joined them for the event uh he did not uh
He was not happy with me that I sent you in my stead though.
He was a little bit disappointed.
You didn't send me.
We were both invited individually.
You could have gone.
Whenever you go to an event that I don't go to, I say I sent you in my stead.
It was great.
Vibes are high.
It's not completely wrong.
I mean, vibes are interesting actually because the whole market structure bill sort of fell to shit like an hour before the event started.
So it was a lot of the conversation last night was around that.
Yeah, what's the insight on that?
A lot of conflicting opinions on whether or not the bill is good or bad.
Let's do Clark's dashboard, then we'll start off with that,
just so we don't forget.
But anyway, before we do that, just real quick, PubKey DC has launched.
Bitcoin Policy Institute has an office there.
Open Door Policy.
Go visit them if you're in DC.
I'd love to have you.
Yes.
I met a fan of the show.
He told me he's going to be listening right now.
So hello to you.
Sorry I won't talk to you.
Does he work for the agency?
He works for NASA.
We've got people in the space program.
There you go.
He works for A Agency.
A Agency, yes.
What does NASA stand for again?
Something something agency, right?
It is.
Naval?
Is it Naval?
Let's see.
NASA stands for national aeronautics and space administration.
It's no agency.
It's not an agency.
It's an administration and there's no naval involved in it.
They coordinate with the Navy sometimes.
I think what does this mean?
He's in the, he's in the YouTube chat.
He says, I'm that fan.
Odell sucks eggs, by the way.
What does that mean?
What was that?
He, the guy that you're talking about is mother Mary three, seven, nine,
six on YouTube. Do you see him in the YouTube chat?
Sucks eggs, by the way. I have no idea. What does that mean? Is that a,
is that like a zoomer thing? Is that a zoomer thing? What's his age range?
I think eggs are good for you. Eggs are a super food.
I encourage everyone to suck.
The oldest use of that that I know of is in SpongeBob.
So.
What was the reference in that?
Was it negative?
Yeah, it's negative.
Squidward sucks eggs, I think.
Well, it shouldn't be negative because eggs are a superfood.
So maybe he's nervous in the live chat and he's trying to impress the live chat
because he was speaking highly of you last night.
So I don't know.
I don't know what's going on here.
Anyway, Freak, join the live chat on Noster.
download Primal in your favorite app store.
It's Bitcoin enabled.
Where the freaks dwell.
John Arnold, our partner.
Resident Quant.
That's a 1950s ass insult.
Eat your eggs, freaks.
Eat your eggs.
Use code RHR, your favorite egg supplier.
I had two this morning.
All right, to the dashboard.
Sorry.
Current price is $95,850.
Cuck bucks, one cuck bucks is going to get you 1,043 sats.
We are approaching a $2 trillion market cap yet again,
sitting at 1.91 trillion.
We are still 24% below the last all-time high of 126,160.
We're at block height, 932,415,
which means we are 1,459.
Oh, wait, no, that's the mempool.
Excuse me.
993 blocks away from the next difficulty.
Retarget estimated to be on January 22nd, so a week from today.
Maybe we'll get a difficulty adjustment during next week's RHR.
Or actually, maybe we won't.
I'm going to be in Nashville for the energy mining summit.
We'll figure out next week's schedule.
As of right now, estimated to be a negative 4.3% difficulty adjustment.
Blocks have been coming in at 10 minutes and 29 seconds on average.
As I alluded to, it looks like the mempool has grown in Clark's.
We teeny weeny mempool, 1,606 transactions.
If we go over to mempool.space,
which I don't have opened on my browser right now,
they have 27,167 transactions.
And they're mempool.
Very cheap right now.
One sat per vbyte, get you the next block.
If you're willing to wait, you can go less than that.
Below a sat.
Ooh, just bumped up to two sats for a vbyte.
Activity.
I mean, the last block was 0.37.
Yes.
All right, back to what we were discussing.
One day I'll never clear again.
There is somebody listening live that pinged me out of band on Signal and said, in case you see this, this bill was bad.
But it was killed by TradFi, not Coinbase.
So it was bad for literally everyone.
So for those who are unaware, obviously the market structure bill, long been talked about, Genius Act, the stablecoin bill was passed last year.
The order of operations, the priority for Bitcoin and quote unquote crypto related bills is Genius, market structure, distant third being the Bitcoin strategic reserve.
Many people were hoping that market structure would have gotten passed last year.
It did not get pushed to this year.
and there was many people signaling that this week it was going to get passed or it was at
least going to hit the floor and at the very last minute um it got pulled from a debate today or i
forget what they call it they were going to hear it out on the floor today they decided not to do
that at the last minute many people are attributing it to brian armstrong's tweet last night which
basically said hey i'd rather have no bill than a bad bill i can't support this um but like i was
saying there was a lot of discussion last night at the bpi uh official opening of their office
last night uh that party and yeah so many people i talked to like there were some good aspects of
the bill particularly for open source developers at least some of the like that was it yeah um
there was language about self-custody but it was opaque uh lol elites wrote something about it in
rage and i talked to somebody um who was on the hill and said like the way he described he's like
lola is like 50 right 50 wrong based off of her like his analysis of her um summary of the bill
but the one thing that she said that that he said that she highlighted that was actually very high
signal that nobody else really caught on to was the fact that it would expand the patriot act and
KYC surveillance.
Yeah.
And I think one of the other biggest hiccups
and what the person who's messaging me out about
on Signal is alluding to is that
apparently the banking lobby stepped in
and really were adamant about not letting stablecoin issuers
share treasury yield with their users.
Because it would, I mean, if you just look at the incentives
it would completely destroy their business model
because why would you save your money in a bank
if you could save it in a stable coin wallet and get 3.5% to 4% in yield instead of 40 bps in a savings account.
Yeah, I mean, it's the same issue that banks have with Caitlin Long's full reserve bank, right?
It's like if you add a more desirable deposit option,
then the Ponzi banking system just unravels like crazy because everyone just pulls their deposits out, right?
yeah
kind of crazy
what are your thoughts on
to your point there
is this just going to be
a never ending stalemate
because if you unleash
all this stuff on the market it's going to completely
destroy the bank's business model unless they
adopt it themselves
I think the problem is there's too many
warring incentives
we're not aligned with Coinbase
who's not aligned with the banks, who's not aligned with us.
They tried to make everybody happy in a bill that they called clarity,
which provides no clarity whatsoever,
which just is like a sigh up in itself, right?
Like the Patriot Act, right?
Like the Patriot Act was the least patriotic thing ever.
And it's like, okay, let's pass a super confusing bill and call it clarity.
And I mean, look, on the KYC surveillance stuff,
like that's been trending in a bad direction for a long time.
at least for regulated entities.
Like, I mean, it gets way worse before it gets better.
But where we can win I think is making sure self developers are protected that there no surveillance requirements there that make sure open source developers are protected America should be and
can be the best place for open source development to happen and Bitcoin innovation in general. I
think it's better for the country as a whole. I think this is something that's good for all
Americans. Yeah, I mean, I think the process is incredibly frustrating. But it was always going to
be incredibly frustrating. Like this should not be a surprise for people. And the grind continues.
And I'm grateful that we have, this is why we have the team at Bitcoin Policy Institute.
Because it's the first time we've really had a well-oiled machine that is focused specifically on
the needs of the average Bitcoiner that wants to hold self-custody Bitcoin,
that wants to use Bitcoin as freedom money. We've never had an advocate for that in DC.
And it's already been a sea change in terms of the amount of influence we have
for these things. And I think I'm sure you saw that when you went to the event last night.
Their power is growing and the narrative is starting to take hold. And so I'm quite,
I'm quite optimistic on that front, but you know,
this is not, it's not going to be an overnight thing.
And the number one priority is to keep us all out of the gulags.
And I think, well, obviously without,
with the massive glaring exception of samurai,
the samurai developers being pleading guilty and being jailed,
we need to free them. But with that massive exception,
the last two years we've made significant progress in terms of um our own government
trying to destroy bitcoiners lives and you know strong bitcoin businesses that are based in america
yeah i mean props or props are due to brian armstrong the enemy of my enemy is my friend
uh in this case like i agree i'd rather have no bill than a bad bill and it's very that's the only
part of his tweet that you agree with right the rest of the truth was pretty bad yeah you could
one-liner um i was explaining this to somebody last night up until i think last year like march
of last year i'd been to dc twice in my life once for a third grade field trip and once like
visiting a high school sweetheart uh girlfriend she went to georgetown and then between then when
I was 18 and up to last year when I was 33,
I'd never been,
I've been like four or five times in the last year,
especially since I've moved rather close back being back home in Philly.
And it's easy to get down there on train,
but like it's the experience of going down there many times over the last 12
months is really highlighted.
I think we all have the sort of feeling that it's this way,
but like you see it in person and you talk to the people involved and then
I don't envy anybody that's involved with how the sausage is made.
It seems like fucking hell.
Thankless in a lot of ways.
Like we were saying earlier, so many competing incentives.
It makes you wonder.
Sitting on the train on the way back last night,
have we just gotten to a scale where it doesn't make sense
to do things like this anymore?
But it's hard work.
BPI guy, Zach Shapiro, specifically from BPI and the Coin Center guys.
I saw Peter Van Valkenberg and Niraj tweeting about it.
They were like, come on, this was a good bill.
We should take what we want.
But I'd push back.
I think the expansion of the Patriot Act and the ambiguity of whether or not self-custody was actually protected.
and kyc aml compliance wouldn't be thrust on open source wallets was was a bit um too unsettling and
going back to like the big banks like i think this could be a stalemate because somebody i was talking
to last night about this it was like okay like what are the big banks just like adopted stable
coins and started giving yield to their to their clients and actually giving them like a good
interest rate in their savings accounts it's like it would simply it would kill community banks
number one and then it would narrow the big banks and they don't want that at all because by taking
the treasury yields they're able to put that in other markets and then lever it up 10x and simply
ripping some margin off of the treasury yields and giving the rest to their their clients their
depositors doesn't make much sense not as profitable obviously so they have to significantly narrow
their operations which i think for the too big to fail banks it's too far gone for that
I mean, I think an interesting takeaway, an interesting part here is, I mean, I think a lot of people were surprised how strongly Coinbase came out against it.
Because the shit corners got like way more out of this than we did.
Like, like, besides the KYC surveillance piece is horrible, bad for America.
um but like also like the majority of the bill just is like crony capitalism
based for shit corners it's like all for the shit corners yeah like even the whole concept
of quote unquote market structure is like let us dump shit coins on retail it's like that is the
whole the premise of the regulation we've been savvy enough to sneak in some open source developer
protections and self custody protections but the general premise was let's legalize dumping
shit coins on retail and he's being a little bit like he's being a little bit greedy about it um
what to not be cool with this proposal yeah because i walk from what i understand it'd be like some
registration process for all the tokens and like he just wants people to be able to pump dot fun
launch meme coins and stuff like that on base it's a little bit greedy yeah
but yeah anyway i'd rather if you want to take his one-liner like i 100
echo the sentiment that no bill is better than bad bill 100
yeah what is the problem of the status quo right now like obviously we want the open source
developer protections but there's no look at that you could argue that they would actually not be as
good as they are now i think um the argument is if you go back a year and a half ago
things were bleak in america for people building up bitcoin and other freedom adjacent software
and businesses and since then we haven't had really any substantive like legal changes but
we've had a government that has basically like taking the gun away from our head, right?
An administration taking the gun away from our head.
Obviously, they still like freeing Ross was huge, I think, at least, you know, personally
for Ross, it was absolutely massive.
And then also from like a narrative point of view, I think really important.
But we need to be very deliberate here and not take our foot off the gas and cement some
of these perceived gains because who the hell knows what's going to happen in the next three
years you know it'd be nice to have some of this stuff like enshrined in law and very
clear like actual clarity not just the name of the fucking bill like actual clarity on
where we stand on this shit would be really big for the country i think agreed and i like
going back to my earlier comments about like just being completely dismayed at how the
sausage is made that was one of the conversations i have is like all right like why can't we
just get a simple two-page bill. It's like open source developers can write code and will not be
beholden to the whims of whatever end users do with that. And individual American citizens can
self-custody without having a KYC. And they were like, no, that's not how this works. Like,
it all needs to be trouble. It's like, oh, it's a funny guy over here making jokes.
Yeah. And literally, they're like, are you retarded? Like, no, it's not how it works well.
What these omnibus bills?
It's the way the land now, which is disconcerting.
All right.
Before we jump into more topics, let's read some zaps here from great.
We are now third party lab testing glyphosate in AMPA free use code RHR.
I've been pronouncing glyphosate wrong for my entire life.
There's some like middle of the word spoonism.
i've been calling it glyphosate um for for many many years
glyphosate his comment on nostril ahead of time telling us how to pronounce it yes yes i did did
you see my response if you expect us to pronounce the words correctly you're gonna have a bad time
yes um i uh this is huge huge shout out to great geeky um i think uh yeah i mean
It's really hard to find good quality food for our family.
So I appreciate him providing.
Speaking of providing, great products, animal-based products for our family.
Soapminer is next up, 21,000 sats.
Supfreak, sats are the standard and the only payment Soapminer accepts.
Mav21 with 21,000 sats.
Use code RHR.
Use code RHR at soapminer.com.
Mav21, 21,000 sats.
And I'm going to read this one just because if you read it, it's like, okay, this is good enough.
They put the effort in.
George, 20,000 sats.
Long time listening.
First time catching the love stream on Primal.
It's a live stream.
Always wanted a shout out.
I know it's not 21,000, but this is all the sats in my Primal wallet.
So you emptied your wallet.
How much was it?
20,000.
Oh, that counts.
For some reason, that zap's not showing for me.
I just see his text.
And what, Mav21 didn't have a message, right?
Doesn't look like it.
I freaked out.
Thank you for your support.
Yeah.
Thank you guys for the support.
Moving on.
In terms of our list.
In Iran.
Because I've been paying attention.
It's been a pretty crazy week there.
Currently the internet is still offline.
It's been offline for five days now.
It's fucking wild.
Yeah.
I mean it says it right there.
168 hours.
What is that?
168 seven days seven days it's a big two days to be off by marty i know i know we're not gonna
reimagine the internet if the internet went off for a week in america people would lose their
i mean t-mobile went down for like six hours yesterday and people were freaking out
yeah no but i'm saying entire internet all internet cut like the only internet they have
in Iran is Starlink
and the government's actively
been jamming that as well.
Some people have been able to get around it
but it's not as easy
as just throwing a dish out there and
connecting. They've been actively
trying to stop the Starlink signal as well.
Yeah.
It'd be straight chaos in the US if it was
seven days. Agreed.
How many people would be eating each other?
Friend of the show. I know we both know him.
I saw him.
I saw him in person last year.
He was imprisoned by the Iranian regime, escaped.
He's no longer in the country, but I think it's very close,
obviously very near and dear to his heart.
Zaya, he wrote a long post on Noster about this.
We won't read the whole thing, but I think it is.
We'll read a few paragraphs because it's pretty enlightening.
12,000 innocent lives are lost.
Hashtag Iran massacre.
Over the past two weeks, protests have started across Iran.
Very little of what is happening is being accurately reported,
and a significant amount of false information is circulating.
Much of it is deliberately engineered by the Islamic Republic regime
and the IRGC to buy time while they suppress the protest.
It's been a week and the internet has been completely shut down
and there's no contact with inside Iran.
This is unprecedented.
Mobile communication is unavailable.
Text messages and landlines too.
People cannot even communicate with each other inside Iran.
Last time the regime imposed a nationwide internet blackout
was around six years ago.
At least 1,500 people were killed during that period.
It's at a very grim precedent, and what is happening now is even more severe.
I haven't heard anything from my friends and family in days.
Even some of my friends were very tech savvy.
I haven't heard anything from them.
A very small number of people had smuggled Starlink terminals in before this,
which has made it possible for a very limited number of videos to come out.
Why aren't there more of these?
Because it's difficult to smuggle.
They're expensive, and they're extremely risky to own or use in Iran.
the regime will put you away in jail for five to ten years so they find out you have one
the reason for these blackouts is that the islamic republic regime ruling iran doesn't want any kind
of exposure to their killings so people can't tell the world what's happening to them it's like the
regime covers up the whole country with a very heavy blanket and then starts killing and shooting
people under it and their crimes go unnoticed i'll read this the main reason i'm writing this
here is that while our people are being shot we the iranian diaspora open any social media or
platform and see tons of accounts claiming that we're telling lies about a massacre happening in
iran to this moment there have been reports of 12 000 people being killed in only two days for
those who cannot fathom the 12 000 number for the iran massacre i can only say that is probably much
higher and the number will grow even more once the regime starts executing those who are detained
regime announced that the first execution will be tomorrow check hashtag efron sultani and spread
his name i'm gonna stop there but we'll link to this it's it's a rather lengthy post um pretty
crazy and zaya is definitely a legitimate source on this he's long time iranian bitcoiner on the
ground educating people in iran about bitcoin for many years over a decade i think i had him on tftc
in like 2019 2020 yeah it's a real long long long length of proof of work there with zaya
a very trustworthy individual
by integrity.
If you want to support the cause financially,
if you zap him,
I can
confidently say it will go in the right direction.
Yeah.
It's crazy.
And then there was rumors that
the United States
was going to attack back to
late last night. It seems like that changed.
Trump came out and said, we're not going to attack Iran.
I wonder if that
Verizon shit down yesterday.
was was that was that in iran no no i doubt that no i think that was just probably just
bad infrastructure it's not the first time it's happened um i mean a lot of our infrastructure is
just and they have monopolies it's just it's just outdated and poorly maintained and um
they don't have a huge incentive to make it more reliable if it goes out for six hours does anyone
switch their cellular provider no like maybe i mean i remember i had an office in new york
and like like our cable internet would just like go out for like three hours in midtown manhattan
it's like they're supposed to be like the financial capital of the world and you can't
have internet for three hours in the middle of work day because they know you're not going to
fucking leave them um but uh no my guess is i mean look love or hate the current administration
and I've gotten a lot of shit for this,
for calling it as I see it.
On the military side, they've been incredibly savvy.
They've been incredibly savvy recently.
And the fog of war is incredibly important.
Your enemy not knowing when you're going to do something
and how you're going to do it.
And what I saw last night was them playing some games
to make people think that they were about to do it.
And that doesn't mean they're not going to do it tomorrow.
I mean, he seems to like, he loves his financial markets,
so he seems to like attacking when markets are closed on the weekends.
But specifically, what set it all off was airspace was closed,
but also there was a couple of big bets on polymarket.
I saw that.
So they're like, I'm pretty sure it's like them and the Israelis,
They take an account that has been correct in the past about attacks.
They throw in a $100,000 bet on them being attacked tonight.
Watch and see what kind of true movements happen.
Keep them on their toes.
That's what it felt like.
But I don't think it was related to the cell phone outage.
I'm trying to find the tweet.
because somebody made a big bet last night
that we were going to attack Iran by the end of yesterday.
And then they sold the top.
I think they sold at like 90% or something.
Yeah.
So they got their money back.
It didn't really cost them anything,
but they got to see some responses.
They also got to keep the enemy on their toes,
not let them know when they're going to get hit.
Yeah.
All right.
My heart goes out to everybody in Iran.
Very shitty, obviously.
Shitty is not near descriptive enough.
Absolutely important situation over there.
Yeah.
I will unequivocally say I stand with the people of Iran.
Yeah.
I'm looking for this while we're talking about prediction markets.
So before we go to the next rather gloomy.
I mean, yeah, go on.
a topic. Logan, pull this up
and put it in the chat.
Before we leave, are you going to leave Iran?
Is that what you're doing?
No, we can stay on Iran.
Stay on Iran and then we'll leave.
Add some context to prediction markets.
On the optimistic side,
this is why this technology is so important.
This is why Bitcoin is so important.
This is why Nasser is important.
This is why BitChats is important.
This is why even things like Starlink are important.
When you have technology
that empowers individuals,
it makes it harder for corrupt governments to stomp on their people. It doesn't make it impossible.
Bitcoin doesn't end wars. It doesn't end violence. Iran doesn't have a printing press. Their currency
is fucking worthless. It's literally on financial markets that went to zero. It's worthless. They
have no printing press. They can still kill people. These tools empower individuals to stand up and
have outsized power that they wouldn't otherwise have as individuals. And as a result, it reduces
is the effectiveness of corrupt governments. And that's the optimistic take. That's why this
movement is so important. That's why we have to keep pushing forward. That's why this grind is
a forever grind. But a worthwhile grind. It is a grind. We talk about it. Matt and I often joke
before we have recorded, I'm tired, boss. But it's stories like this that remind us why we're in this
in the first place. It's imperative. You got to grind. You got to keep pushing forward.
couldn't have said it better.
I'm talking about,
obviously we were talking about prediction markets there,
like how do you get accuracy for news?
I don't,
accuracy within prediction markets
about potential future events.
And I thought this was actually,
I didn't share this with you yet,
but I thought this was actually an interesting analysis
from Zach Picorny from Galaxy Research.
He said, I've been meaning to write this for a while
and to report on how I think prediction markets evolve from here,
the future of impact markets.
impact markets address a fundamental information gap prediction markets today cannot tell you what
massive will be worth conditional on specific events occurring this information doesn't exist
in an explicitly discoverable form while prediction markets reveal event probabilities
and spot market reveal prices no mechanism surfaces the market collective view the market's
collective view on conditional asset valuations bounce specific events such as where bitcoin would
trade if the fed were to cut 75 or 50 basis points or how nvidia shares would perform at if an AI alarmist candidate won an important election Instead of trading probabilistic odds via synthetic yes slash no tokens impact market users directly
trade the asset itself in conditional states where they express positions like I'm willing
to buy Bitcoin at $110,000, a 10% premium to market if and only if the Fed cuts 75 basis
points. This fundamentally enhances what markets reveal. Rather than maintaining separate markets
for probability of Fed cut and Bitcoin price,
we get direct price discovery for Bitcoin price
if the Fed cuts by 75 bps.
This idea can be extended to any asset slash event pairing
such as Google and GBT6 released before Gemini Series 4
or gold, asteroid mining by 2030, and so on.
The key distinction is there are events
and there are the impacts those events have
on companies and assets,
which are two fundamentally different things.
Prediction markets aggregate probabilities
for whether events will occur,
Impact markets answer the next question. What happens to this company or asset if this event occurs?
The separation allows each market type to specialize while creating a more complete information set. This is really insightful.
That's interesting. Yeah.
I mean, I don't know how it'd be hard. It's it's
significantly more complex. It sounds like it'd be much more much more. I think they're two separate markets, but it helps you get
it creates the incentive for more accurate information.
Yeah, you could kind of accomplish this by just parlaying to prediction markets at the same time, right?
Yeah.
Like you could bet on Fed rates and bet on Bitcoin price.
And I mean, I guess have a bot run wild with it, balancing it out based on outcomes.
Yeah.
I thought you could even hold the actual asset too, if you wanted to in that process.
Did you see my, um, you see my world peace prediction markets, uh,
an astronaut that I triggered a bunch of folks on.
Should go.
Let me pull it up.
What'd you do?
What did you do?
What are you doing out there?
Let me see if I can get the link.
I mean it's not
something that the freaks would be
unaware of
we've talked about it a lot
the basic premise
let me just see if I can find it
right here it is
if you want peace you should bet
yes on all the war markets corrupt leaders
will bet no and they will be
rich but no war
yeah if you bet I mean because this is what
we've been talking about right
is that if you actually want the outcome to be the opposite, right?
You would bet, if you didn't want Trump to bomb Iran,
you'd bet significantly that he would bomb Iran,
and then he would bet no, and then he would,
then we'd have peace, but he would make money from it.
And then you'd have to just keep doing that forever.
But did you see my follow-up?
My follow-up is the future of ESG and DEI is you buy these shoes
and we'll bet yes on more markets.
It's like, imagine you had a bunch of woke corporations and they're just like, we'll
take a portion of our profits and we'll just bet yes on war forever.
Just a decentralized, a distributed bribe protocol effectively to stop warfing.
Is this a fun shower thought?
Is this an evolution of human nature that we want?
Like people have to constantly be thinking about, uh,
I think it doesn't matter what you want. It's here. We're here.
We're here. We live in, uh,
we live in the timeline that you could be in the middle of the jungle and you
could be betting on airstrikes and it is what it is.
You can't like,
you can argue all day long on moral judgment on whether or not that should be
the case or whether or not, uh,
it's ethically if it's, if it's ethically sound, but it exists,
the cats out of the bag and this is the world we live in now.
Vote yes on war.
You heard it here first.
Vote yes on war.
And on that note, McCoy's
at this 22,000 sats. Stay optimistic.
We'll stay optimistic.
Thank you, sir. I am optimistic.
I am too.
I do
like the Tom
Shoes model, but they bet on war.
I just think that yes on war.
what a word um all right back to internet outages we talked about this last week um obviously
hopefully enough ugandan citizens download a bit chat and are able to communicate but the internet
was officially shut off um two days ago i mean the government even came out like on monday like
we're shutting the internet yeah we're 100 and they're like we're shutting off bit chat too so
Fuck you.
Yeah.
So it's still down.
Netblox is showing 20%.
I love Netblox, by the way.
What a great nonprofit.
I was going to say, they don't make money, right?
No.
The internet's observatory.
I think HRF has given them a Bitcoin grant, T1.
More on HRF Bitcoin grants later in this episode.
But yeah.
I mean, the election's happening.
I mean, what time is it?
It's probably over at this point.
let's see here
time in Uganda
10 26 p.m.
yeah
so
who knows
when we'll hear
I imagine
if I recall
from my research
I did last week
during the 2021 elections
they shut it down
for five days
like a day before
oh shit
so
internet could be
out down there
for the next few days
we'll see
it'll be interesting
to see if it had
any impact at all
or how people
were using it
i haven't heard any reports out of uganda today i saw dorsey i mean it's kind of good time i mean
i'm sure he accelerated his timing but they finally passed a third party audit on the
security of bitchat um and then i think i have something else in here um oh yeah there's uh
they've been making just massive progress on it there's a mesh tastic bitchat bridge
that allows those Mestastic LoRa devices, the small, low-powered devices,
to forward along BitChat messages, which is awesome.
You want to see that those network effects compound rather than fight each other,
rather than have like two different mesh standards.
And then separately, Kali's been working on, at least on the Android side,
using Wi-Fi to expand the range,
which I think is incredibly important.
And we spoke about it last week,
but iPhones still get to take advantage of that too
because if they're in a mesh with Android devices,
the Android devices will extend the range for them.
So slow and steady,
but it's cool to see the progress made over there.
Yeah.
I imagine the focus over indexing on Android development
makes sense for, I imagine Android is...
way more adopted in Uganda than iPhone.
Oh, 100%.
Worldwide it is.
But I don't think it's even them focusing on one or the other.
Like Dorsey focuses on iOS and Kali focuses on Android.
And they'll just take advantage of whatever they can take advantage of
in terms of capabilities for each platform.
I think no matter how you cut it, though,
if you want to make a significant impact on the world,
there's got to be cross-platform.
You can't pick one or the other.
Yeah.
Again, heart goes out to the people of Uganda.
Again, it will be very fascinating to see
if BitChat did have any effect on,
at least what's happening on the ground today there,
and even more so if it actually had an effect
on actually recording boats having data.
Have there been any tweets from Bobby?
Bobby Howard.
All caps.
Uganda is still in the dark with the internet shut down.
Several incidents of ballot stuffing have been recorded.
The regime, military, and police is directly involved in repressing our agents at polling stations.
On top of abductions, the regime forces are targeting our leaders across the country.
Hashtag free Uganda now.
That was four hours ago.
we'll update you freaks on that next week
on to more comical things
many of you may be aware already
on Sunday night Jerome Powell came out with a Roger Burr-esque
this is wild
yeah I also thought of Roger
gun to his head
let's play the whole thing
Let's just play it two minutes.
Good evening.
On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas,
threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June.
That testimony concerned, in part, a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings.
I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy.
No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law.
But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.
This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings.
It is not about Congress' oversight role.
The Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress
informed about the renovation project.
Those are pretexts.
The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates
based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the
preferences of the President.
This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on
evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by
political pressure or intimidation.
I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats
alike.
In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely
on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job
the SAD confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. Thank
you. I mean, the last part of that was complete bullshit. Like he famously cut interest rates
right before one of the elections to favor a political party. Complete clown world. This is
why you need to get central planners out of control of your money and I was
talking about this on the last trade podcast yesterday it's clown world on
both sides right like yes we obviously don't like the Federal Reserve don't
think it should exist we are big advocates of end the Fed you should not
have a centralized entity controlling the price of money supply manipulation
The dual mandate, half of the mandate is completely oxymoronic.
They try to issue price stability via targeting 2% price inflation, year-on-year price inflation.
But the other side, too, it's like the Treasury is trying to take over central control of the money supply of the Trump administration via the Treasury.
And it's not going to end any better.
Maybe temporarily if the Trump administration wants to make sure they have full control over monetary policies so they can enact their economic policies and may have some short-term benefits.
But the problem with central control money is that if you can control the levers, you will inevitably pull the lever to do morally dubious things.
Yes.
yeah i mean um i'd like i think it's probably best case scenario for us that they're fighting
with each other like when they're aligned is when the most damage is done yeah um or if one side has
all the power or if they're aligned which is basically the same thing is when it's the worst
case scenario um but what was also crazy about this was first of all that's a straight up hostage
video absolutely wild uh and just like posted out on the internet right like came from the federal
reserves uh late on sunday night yeah i went to i went to the eagles game on sunday once the eagles
get terrible loss was at the game and then like ended up uh stopped at a bar let traffic go had
a drink before um taking an uber home and it was like it had to be like 8 30 and it came across it
It was like 8.30 on a Sunday.
Well, that was the cool part.
The cool part was Bitcoin just immediately started pumping on the news.
They're like, ah, they're fighting.
Let's rip this shit.
And that's how I knew about it was because the block clock just started running.
I was like, what's going on?
Let me go check to see what's going on out there in the wider world.
Yeah.
Bitcoin almost immediately responded to it.
Yeah, at 5.30 p.m., Bitcoin was at $90,398.
And by 10 p.m., it was at $92,260.
Pretty crazy.
Two and a half grand almost.
Yeah, it's such a clown world.
It's only salary.
So you have that.
Obviously, we mentioned Iran.
The real completely collapsed earlier this week.
It hit zero.
Yeah.
not many people are paying attention but Japanese
yield curve is blowing out like they're going to need to
issue JGBs
and have the BOJ buy them so you're going to have to put
a ton more money
Trump's going to buy Greenland
Trump's going to happen
you heard it here first I'm convinced it's happening
I mean they were talking about it this week
they all met
if you don't want it to happen bed yes on Polymarket
I'm betting no I would like Greenland
I think that's a nice piece of land
you want Greenland? I want Greenland
seems like the people i mean i mean i think it strategically would be a good deal for the
united states of america yeah very uh very strategic i mean do you see the numbers it
was like if we give there's only 57 000 not we i mean i'm not involved in the decision
there's only 57 000 people in greenland if the u.s government gives them a million dollars a pop
uh that's 50 billion dollars and we've done 4x to ukraine like 50 billion dollars is nothing
in the u.s printing press it was one day go down if if the u.s government bought greenland for 50
billion dollars it would go down like uh louisiana purchase alaska like it'd be like the most
obviously great deal ever in 50 years like no one would even think twice no one ever you never hear
anyone's like oh we got a horrible fucking deal on louisiana purchase it's like not up for debate
probably the best deal in human history um we take greenland and then i want alberta too
i want to i want to i want to annex alberta the rest of canada can uh the difference is the
albertans actually want to be a part of america uh the greenlanders don't really no i think there
is a contingency of greenlanders who are like hey come and come and get us come and save us
alberta's good people the rest of canada's kind of heavy weight yeah it makes sense to pick up
manitoba too though because it has uh are you just like do you have a map up and you're just
yeah that's what trump's doing right now you realize that you have access to it's just got
like he's got a map print out he's just like putting pins on the map
You get Manitoba, maybe you throw on Saskatchewan.
Okay, maybe we just take three Canadian provinces.
We get the oil, you can pipe it across Saskatchewan, Manitoba,
get it to the Hudson Bay, Greenland, you're safe,
and then we can sell our oil to Ireland and save that country.
What a timeline.
Anyway, I do think he's going to get Greenland,
regardless of how you
feel about that
if you support it or not
look at us just turning into
a game of risk people like alright
we're just gonna
well that's the funny thing is it's like literally
if you look at a risk board
like Venezuela too
it's like Venezuela and Greenland is how you secure
North America and risk
yeah
very strategic land
very strategic land greenland is uh next unless we have bpi launches office in dc obviously we
already talked about that go check it out pub key great uh great establishment down there very very
aesthetically pleasing high vibes great beers they have cold mugs very good very nice cold mugs i'm a
big cold mug fan uh the snaps the pills are there a cold mug does really it hits do you ever try and
do it at home like you just put in the freezer yeah but the replenishing is it's a hard it's a
hard task to keep it replenished you got to be on top of it um moving on andreas antonopoulos was
awarded the second annual finney freedom prize i thought this was well deserved yeah good choice
so this is um hrf's finney prize um which is a cool concept it's uh they've already put the bitcoin
away and then they have a committee that decides a volunteer committee that decides who wins for
each era of bitcoin right so each having cycle of bitcoin um obviously they just started last year
year so they have to do the old ones that have already happened and the committee process is cool
because once the committees vote on someone then the committees each select who's going to replace
each each person on the committee selects who's going to replace them so they've like set this up
as like a you know a hundred year prize that is self-funded that is already funded with bitcoin
um so this is for 2016 to 2020 and so it's like who was the you know the most influential force
for good in bitcoin between 2016 and 2020. you know and i think andreas has kind of lost the
plot in a lot of ways but i will say that i wouldn't be here today um at least in the way
i am here today uh if it wasn't for andreas like my early bitcoin journey which predates the 2016
to 2020 era but um my early bitcoin journey was just like watching watching andreas videos and
then smash buying it's the same i'm pretty great i'm pretty grateful for him in that regard i'm too
i mean his rogan apps were epic i mean back like 2012 2013. like the last corner we've had on rogan
basically yeah if you don't yeah i think i think the one yeah i think it was like 2013 2014 bitcoin
was in like hundreds of dollars range he had joe spin up a wallet and just like hold the qr code to
the screen i think he got something like 600 bitcoin or something like that um well like
people sending it to the stream yeah no very well deserved i mean i learned a lot mastering bitcoin
Bitcoin was critical to my understanding of Bitcoin the protocol.
It still open source on GitHub if you want to learn about Bitcoin protocol Obviously yeah The way in which he articulated the profundity of bitcoin was just incredibly engaging if he doing it today i sure it still is today um yeah don agree
with everything all of his political views he lost his way he also lost his way on coins
i mean he wrote mastering ethereum too yeah that's true but
we talked about the mustache dick well deserved bitcoin bridge um let's read shout outs
yeah reach out on uh prime on noster we um had a really big fucking zap on the video
it was uh let's see huge shout out 101 101 101 101 101 sats from pgs design thank you sir
huge mega zap he said co2 number go up bets are fun you guys crush it he got one of those aronet
CO2 detectors that are recommended.
That's Aaron at A-R-A-N-E-T.com.
I've applied for an RHR discount code,
but we have not been approved yet.
But use it anyway so they know.
But I actually brought one of those monitors with me.
I was at last week, if you remember,
I was streaming from Costa Rica.
I was on an off-the-record retreat
with a bunch of great Bitcoiners.
And I brought it with me.
the airplanes are always horrible because you can't open windows on airplanes like they have
to fix that once again a monopoly they uh have no reason to improve the current situation you want
you want them to allow people to open the windows no they just have to improve the airflow like it
gets so bad in there like you literally so at at 2000 at 2000 you lose like 15 of your brain power
like people are literally retarded that that's why like when you're when you're like sitting on the
tarmac you know how like tempers start rising and people get agitated and kids are crying and shit
it's because they can't breathe it's because it's all co2 they're just breathing in other people's
co2 like that's why like there's a medical reason for it but i was at one of the events we had
and it was in costa rica and the doors were closed and the ac was on we hit 4 000 which is like
2x OSHA limits. Like we were clinically retarded at that point. That's like a 35, 40% brain
reduction. Did you let the organizers know that they were? Yeah, we opened the windows. I was
kind of curious how high we would get, to be honest. Like I'd never seen it that high before
in terms of number go up, but we did for the rest of the session, all the doors were open. It was
hot, but it's fine. But it's crazy. Like I was talking to good friend and sponsor the pod,
Politoi with Stackwork. And he was the one who got me into it in the first place. And it's like
a crazy rabbit hole when you start to think about it because people are obsessed with like purified
air, right? But this is different. This is an air purifier doesn't fix this for you. You need fresh
air. Fresh air is what fixes this for you. Opening a window, having better airflow, being outside.
And the crazy rabbit hole is the amount of important decisions that happen in humanity
that happen with very high CO2 levels.
Just imagine a bunch of the Illuminati in a board meeting
with no oxygen, no war room,
and they've got 30% mental capacity reduction
because they're just breathing in everyone's CO2.
It happens all the fucking time.
So fade boardrooms, make important decisions outside.
That's the takeaway.
I saw Dorsey tweeting out a Nietzsche quote.
about uh never make a decision from behind a desk always do it outside there you go yeah it's
because it was nietzsche was pre-co2 detector so he didn't know why now he can measure these things
uh got another uh out of band update not update but just to be on the market structure stuff
what to be looking out for moving forward most likely attack vectors coinbase gets the concessions
on stablecoin yield they're looking for.
And TradFi lets them into the Wall Street cartel
in order to lock in an onerous regulatory regime
that prevents any further competitors from entering the market,
all while retail gets the receiving end
of a Coinbase-blessed digital surveillance panopticon.
So in line with what we were saying earlier,
but reinforced by somebody in the know.
So make sure we stay vigilant on that.
It's also tiresome, Marty.
It really is.
To the boost.
Rabbitoh recap, 391.
Ledger leaks again.
Top boost.
Evan, 50,000 sats.
Nebraska freaks.
The Nebraska Bitcoin Association is educating our legislator about the need to protect self-custody and developers' rights.
Very apropos for what we were just discussing.
We're introducing a draft amendment to LB 717 that would close these gaps in the Nebraska Financial Innovation Act.
It adapts the latest Senate language for BRCA and Keep Your Coins Act.
The committee hearing for LB 717 is Tuesday, January 20th at 1.30 p.m.
Local time, Nebraska, I imagine.
Call to action.
Please consider commenting online or joining us at the hearing for more info.
Find us on Noster, Nebraska at Primal.net or nebitcoin.org.
Nebitcoin.org.
Not any, A-N-Y, N-E-N-E.
Thank you for spelling it out because I was confused.
Yes.
That's awesome.
Great initiative.
Shout out to Nebraska.
Shout out to Evan and the Nebraskan freaks out there.
I know there are dozens of you.
Pringle Mac, 44,444 sats.
Fours across the board.
Palindrome boost.
Happy New Year's, freaks.
2026 is shaping up to be a banger.
Good, bad, and ugly, but we will win.
Stay humble, stack sats.
Be the change you want to see in the world.
And donate to OpenSats freaks.
Hope you got our donation, Matt.
Sorry for your loss, Marty.
ants rock they do rock and thank you for that big love always sill and tony shout out to the
ride or die sill and tony thank you great advice and thank you for supporting open stats open
stats.org we actually sent out uh every month every month we sent out a million dollars worth
of bitcoin to 200 plus people in 40 plus countries multi-sig um i helped process that transaction
today with my cold card. Pretty fucking cool. Pretty fucking cool to see. It makes me bullish
every fucking time. Multi-sig, straight to grand recipients. Yeah. Yeah. Before we go into the last
topic, I'm going to throw in a new topic because I saw Freak talking about it in YouTube and I
did some quick research. It does seem like it is validated on the theme of
the predictable demise of fiat currencies,
centrally controlled fiat currencies.
Looks like UK banks borrowed a record 99 billion British pounds of liquidity
from the Bank of England on repo this morning.
So it looks like there may be a liquidity crisis emerging
in the British banking system.
Mandibles and Bitcoin standard.
The intercabal squabble happens.
we're suffocating the city of London right now, attacking the Eurodollar system.
Silver screen is on.
Have you heard the city of London silver connection theory?
Did you see?
First of all, Matt A. Miller asked if it was a cold card queue.
Yes, best hardware wallet available.
My family relies on it.
OpenSats relies on them.
you can use code RHR
for a discount
coldcarb.com
I have my guide at
werunbtc.com
slash coldcarb
check it out
I
when I posted
the
hostage video
did you see
Richard Grease's comment
underneath it
no I didn't
the Powell hostage video
it was
uh it was an all-time great this is what you know it's like this is the metrics that matter
to me on nostril like as long as the writer dies can make me laugh it's a win looking forward to
the interview marty bent does with tom luongo to explain why and how this means bad news for
the bank of england that'll happen next week freaks give them a look out i did see that actually
I got to check on.
Yeah.
When I just checked,
you zapped it.
You had already zapped it.
We got a zap.
Speaking of zaps,
we got one of the live stream,
bitcoinsponsorships.com.
I can't read the whole thing.
I think it's that.
Love the show.
If you need sponsors,
check out bitcoinsponsorships.com,
a free network connecting
Bitcoin traders with brands.
I saw you zapping
some of our content
on Primal this week,
bitcoinsponsorships.com.
Looking into it.
I don't know how these guys make money, but apparently it's free.
Yeah. I mean, no endorsement.
You can endorse, haven't used.
So what were you saying? City of London? What about the city of London?
I cut you off.
I watched a podcast last week.
Somebody in the Tom Luongo web of people who are convinced that we're in a
battle with the city of London.
Apparently they're going back like 400 years.
They have debt contracts denominated in silver that have just been rolled over for 400 years.
And one of the theories of the silver squeeze right now is that they're squeezing the city of London and trying to bankrupt them because all of their multi-century debt obligations are denominated in silver.
I thought that was fascinating.
Yeah, I mean, it definitely feels big.
the silver run the gold run feels big do you see Chamath called for copper copper to run yeah I uh
to our tether to our uh to the tether uh leadership that might be listening to this show
when tether copper like when can I buy burgers uh steak and shake with tether copper I'm more of a
uranium bull these days give me tether uranium how do you how do I was thinking about that too
use self-custody uranium is that legal i don't think i think people go to jail for uh you have
to physical uranium only don't buy paper uranium paper uranium is a scam wild times it does the
commodities the commodities are pointing to mandibles and bitcoin standard is what they're
pointing to matt matt miller saying uh jamaul free posted a video calling for obama to go to prison
Well, it's because Obama self-custidied uranium.
The world's colliding.
It's all connected.
I mean, on the uranium front, apparently nuclear energy got classified as ESG-friendly this week.
That's why it looks like the steps are being taken to untether the nuclear industry from the regulatory tape that's out there.
It's what we said as soon as it happened.
It was so obvious as it was happening.
I was like, as soon as big tech and all the tech bros needed power for AI,
the entire narrative switched.
Like all of a sudden it was like, we need power generation,
next great American century.
Like we're not doing enough power, coal, nuclear, everything,
like as much power as possible.
Completely flipped.
No one's shitting on Bitcoin's power usage anymore.
And all eyes are on increasing as much power generation and efficiency as possible.
It like flipped on a fucking dime.
And it is important to stay humble, but it is a little deflating because we were on the anti-ESG.
We need more power wave like six years.
I mean, you sent the note out, what, two weeks ago.
everything Bitcoiners
Bitcoiners will say something then four years later
it'll be consensus via Silicon Valley
and they'll act like they made the idea
this is why I love prediction markets
and why I love Bitcoin
and free markets and why
I love our work at 1031
is because if you have skin in the game
then you can profit off of being right
and then it just feels good
you just get the benefit and we just had our
1031
annual investor day
and 1031 is outperforming 90% of funds
that were all like,
if you compare our funds to the same year
that other funds were created,
we're outperforming 90% of them,
we're outperforming Bitcoin.
We're the first check into Giga Energy
who only raised $5 million
that now is doing AI compute stuff too
because they're on the leading edge
of the storage containers
used for energy generation,
just on-demand data centers,
whether those are bitcoin miners or ai upstream data we're the exclusive investor of um so we did
place our heads we did make some prediction market bets in that regard yeah i'm i'm i'm
satisfied with it they don't have to call me up and be like you're right it's fine we were right
i won't expect a call we did put some money where our mouths were and it is uh it's paying out shout
out to giga and upstream two incredible companies coming giga giga um and up both of them are
in a very good position right now.
This energy wave is only beginning.
It has nowhere near its crest.
So I think we have at least another decade
of energy expansion.
I just love the, I don't know,
it's just, I love the competition of it all.
I mean, there were so many,
like you want to talk about crypto investors?
They were all fading proof of work.
They're all like proof of stake is the future.
I mean, I remember writing Benz in 2018.
You don't want to use energy.
I'll go back and find the receipts.
When I was writing Benz in 2018, I'm so happy that they're doing this
because you don't realize that this intersection of compute and energy
is the next big thing.
You actually want to be using a lot of energy
because it makes you a strategic stakeholder in our energy systems,
which is a very valuable spot to be in.
I see Austin in Ride or Die, Primal Chat,
asking Giga's doing AI now.
You know, they're agnostic.
They do power generation.
Yeah, they're not running their own GPUs.
Well, they build modular data centers,
and they've designed the data centers
in a way where you can input racks
that can hold Bitcoin miners or GPUs.
On top of that, they build.
That's another thing with Giga specifically.
They notice bottlenecks in the energy sector,
particularly with transformers,
which became a big thing.
years ago and they were like all right let's make transformers these are desperately needed so they
have a manufacturing facility for transformers in long beach and they just spun up another
manufacturing facility in houston so they service that they were building gensets as well but they
also released this demand response software so that miners people um using their data centers
to mine bitcoin can basically connect to um the substation of the grid system and get real-time
pricing and decide if they want to turn off or mine bitcoin and um make sure they're as profitable
as possible they've got a full suite of products that is really positioned well for for this energy
boon that we're i'm so proud of those guys what hustlers i mean the speed of which i mean we're
glazing uh our own portfolio company but it is it is uh well-deserved to glaze aren't glazing i mean
I mean, the speed with which is-
Talking about glazing portfolio company.
Did, NVK just showed up in live chat.
You are late.
I think it's cut up.
Do I see, is it only a thousand Satsap or is it 21,000?
It's 1,000.
Wow.
Okay, well, someone's feeling a little frugal today.
Anyway, we're very proud to support NVK
and FunKite as the-
It is defense.
of the best hardware in the space.
CoinKite.com.
Use code RHA.
Since you are late, you missed it.
I was holding this up earlier.
So you'll be happy to know.
Yeah.
I was hoping that my interface was just dropping,
drop the two in front of 21,000.
What are you going to do?
Last thing on the list,
but I feel like we could riff after this.
Your mugs and beer is making me very thirsty for a beer.
You like I've been mugging it lately.
I like the mug.
I was talking about it like the mug last night.
The cold mugs at PubKey DC.
This was a warm mug.
It was a room temperature mug.
Let's be honest.
HRS Bitcoin Development Fund announces support for 22 projects worldwide.
They send out over 1.3 billion Satoshis and grants.
Massive.
Love to see it.
Great project supported.
They're doing great work.
um it looks like marty's wife has just walked into the room she she she did she's wondering
if she can leave the house and leave our four-month-old in uh napping this crap yes yes
you can baby yeah it's off camera as long as as long as off camera i feel fortunate don't you feel
fortunate you know we'll do this i know you're absolutely blessed to you yeah absolutely blessed
It was nice knowing that we're doing this and our wives and our children are not too far away from us right now.
No, it's, we have a lot to be grateful for.
Wow, look at this.
No zap in the YouTube live chat, but got a shout out.
Started watching you guys seven years ago.
Seems like another lifetime ago.
It really does.
It is crazy.
I love it.
It's like a great name too.
One, nine, two, one, six, eight, one, one.
I hope that's not your, your IP address, sir.
No, no, no.
That's like a local IP.
That's like when you're like trying to access your router
or something.
It's like, oh, my router has the same IP address.
And as far as portfolio companies,
I forgot to put this on the list.
If you've been living under a rock,
1031 is the largest investor in Strike.
And Strike just launched Mississippi, Virginia, Ohio,
and Tennessee, the great state of Tennessee
for Bitcoin-backed loans, obviously.
As it's my base of operations, we've been very excited to get Tennessee out the door, but now they're all alive. We're going to try and just knock them out jurisdiction by jurisdiction. It's going to be a big couple of months.
Shipping, shipping. We're pumping. Everybody's doing well. Fade the haters. People saying you can't invest in Bitcoin companies. There's nothing there. Bitcoin is going to be destroyed by quantum computing.
yeah one of the people that said that actually bottom ticked uh bottom take this maybe too early
to call that it could be a bull trap could be a bull trap i uh i'd hold that well even if it's a
bull trap i'm going to take advantage of the moment to say that he bottom ticked it and uh
what what was the message he said he said uh he said wait for the coming days they're going to
dump on you because of quantum computing and just like at 80 000 it was if if we had to do
all-time high i will prove it literally was a bottom tech coast i mean look usually usually
we need a couple sacrifices for bitcoin to turn around and uh we had a three-peat basically
the cycle, we had Nick Carter, we had Mike Brock and Luke
Roman. And I think Luke is the probably the most
disappointing one and he'll probably come around i don't think luke is out out i mean he made a
trade you see someone no but he's he's emotionally invested in that trade right now do you see him
i have a lot of respect for luke which is why it was the most disappointing but he's like out there
like on bitcoin actively on twitter ah luke he's emotionally invested in the trade now
i'll have to have luke back that's where it becomes a problem he's a good friend i i respect luke i
I love it.
I hate to say it.
Look, I look forward to him turning around at Bitcoin's next all time high against gold.
When is that coming?
This is super cycle.
This year.
No, it's going to come.
My prediction at the beginning of the year was that we're going to hit a new all time
high in gold and new all time high in silver and also new all time in dollars this year.
And you said yes to dollars, no to silver, no to gold.
I mean, silver and gold are still falling.
And you refuse to bet on it.
We're starving out the city of London.
I think dollar all time high is definitely within the realm of possibility.
That's not as fun anymore.
We need gold and silver all time highs.
That's true.
That's the harder call.
I think that's the harder call.
I think there's a decent amount of people that think that we'll have a dollar all time high
Just because the printer is about to, I mean, you saw the Fed hostage video,
like the printer is about to go fucking wild But the question is how does that relatively perform against silver and gold which have Lindy and have been around forever
Matt A. Miller saying new all-time high price in gold equals $185,000.
Obviously, like gold would be ripping in that situation too,
so it's probably higher than that.
We'd probably meet them somewhere in the 200s, something like that.
I don't know. Stay humble and stack stats about it.
But Marty refuses to bet me on this.
I don't know, Marty, did you see someone in NASA was like,
Marty, water's wet.
Odell, want to bet?
All right, let's bet on it if you want to bet on it.
And then someone underneath was like, water isn't wet.
And I love that part too.
It's just...
100,000 sets, December 31st, 2026 at midnight,
right before the ball drops, right as the ball's dropping.
That all-time high was hit before that.
we could drop below it but that yes yes before that between now as long as i we breach all-time
high in gold in gold we breach all-time high in gold it counts i thought it was gold and silver
which one is it will you give me two to one on the on the tandem yes 100 000 sats two to one
on the tandem you have to hit so you pay me 200k i have to hit both and they don't have to be on
the same day, obviously.
No.
No good deal.
I immediately regret that decision.
You heard it here first week somebody write it down We don have the bet tracker so we been talking about it for over a year We only have one outstanding This is the first We didn have any outstanding bets until we just made that bet Yeah Now we have one
We've filled out all our other bets.
I'm on a losing streak.
I need to win this one.
Yeah.
Ever since my wife told me to stop betting on memples, I've been fucking crushing.
Yeah.
That's the last one I won.
I'm going to win this one, though.
Speaking of winning, we're winning in the live chat on Noster.
Florida Justin Zapp does
22,122 sats palindrome
Zapp appreciate you lads
appreciate you too lad
appreciate you too
alright I'm gonna go
have a Guinness
I'm gonna go have a Guinness
and
enjoy this
beautiful Thursday afternoon we have here in the Philadelphia area
a little frigid a little cold but
sun's out vibes are high
huge shout out to the freaks
fighting for freedom in Iran and you
Uganda and everywhere else in the world.
Huge shout to NVK on bringing another baby into the world since he just reiterated it
in the live chat.
More babies.
We need strong Bitcoiner families.
Love you all.
Stay on the stack sets.
Well, on that note, I won't end it yet.
I tried to bribe my wife this morning to have our fourth baby.
You don't have to bribe her that hard.
I know her well.
I know.
There's no bribe.
What'd you bribe her with?
With the newborn It like you know it annoying You have the car seat then you put the stroller in the back There now a car seat that is also a stroller
You just take it out and fold it.
She's like, I want to get one.
We'll sell it next year when he's walking.
I was like, you don't have to sell it.
You can get it if we have it for us.
Honestly, I don't like that car seat, though.
Have you used it?
it I haven't used it I've heard about it my sister has it I don't know it's just bulky it's like uh
it tries to kill two birds with one stone it does like both poorly like I like the car seat that
rotates out so it's easy to put them in you know I'm talking about I always feel bad
that one I recommend that one I recommend and then we have like a super lightweight stroller
and it's like so you mix the two together and you have like a worse car seat and you have a worse
stroller but yeah anyway you should have more babies i i don't think you have to grab your
wife too hard on that one i think she's pretty aligned i don't you know you're like four months
after the pregnancy is a very physical thing it's like of course it's like the most physical thing
you gotta be i don't know if i could do it you gotta be strategic about bringing up the next baby
after the last one.
Freaks,
yeah, have babies.
Strong families.
Bullish.
Peace and love, freaks.