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sats stackwork.ai this rip was brought to you by our official electrolyte sponsor here at rhr salt

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of the earth you've been hearing matt and i talk about it quite a bit i drink multiple packets of

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it a day you got to stay hydrated that's why my face looks so good so i'm getting buff i'm able to

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get to the gym more because i'm hydrated matt he's looking incredible i'm sure you've all noticed it

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You want to know why?

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It's all to the earth, baby.

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Go to drinkssauté.com.

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I'm dead serious.

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It hasn't made my life way better.

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My wife, she's right behind me right now laughing, but she's laughing because she knows it's true.

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She drinks like seven a day.

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I drink a few a day, maybe seven a day too.

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Matt, I don't even want to tell you how much he's drinking.

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It's good.

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It keeps you hydrated.

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It keeps you alert.

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It keeps you ready to go.

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drink sauté.com at D-R-I-N-K-S-O-T-E dot com.

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Use the code RHR for 15% off any order.

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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.

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When you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.

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So it's all acting like safe haven.

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I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.

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In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.

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I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.

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If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.

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You're welcome for being helpful. I want you to know I'm going to miss Super Mario Brothers 2 in theaters.

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well we're live right now so i was hoping that uh you weren't going to say something you regretted

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no super mario brothers too boys are big uh super mario brothers fans which is

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is a millennial who grew up on i remember playing on the original nintendo

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it does warm my heart a bit

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i mean like mario is a franchise it's uh

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I like I don't know

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my toddler is he like he's convinced that his favorite game is Mario but he's never played it

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I don't know where he picked it up from I mean he's not quite the age where he like he can even

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play competently even if he were to find it somewhere um but he like came like just one day

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you know how toddlers are like one day he just like picked it up and just all the time just

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constantly like he's like sees me or my lady on the phone he's like are you playing mario

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can i play mario okay bro

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we'll do wrestling matches we're uh we're tops off wrestling in this house i mean the boys

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rip the tops off wrestle in our bed and uh the boys are the super mario brothers not bowser

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and my wife comes over.

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She's peach.

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I pick her up and take her to the shower

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and lock her in there.

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They got to save her.

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That's wholesome.

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I love that wholesome story.

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Great to start us off.

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On the opposite side of wholesome,

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I didn't put this on the list

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because you said you've been away from your keyboard.

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So I'm hoping you didn't notice it ahead of time.

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Can you click the link I just put in our signal chat?

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I want to get your immediate reaction.

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Will this media property be impartial

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from here on out.

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Yeah, so TBPN,

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the second-rate rabbit hole recap competitor

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that happens on a daily basis,

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and it's like less than a year old

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and has like 45 sponsorships,

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just got sold to OpenAI.

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Obviously, I mean,

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Marty, what the fuck are we doing here?

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Like, Kobe sold to fucking Coinbase.

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like what what we're like making pennies in front of a steamroller over here and all these guys are

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getting that those premium buyouts you know what matt it's it's actually um very apropos that you

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bring that up today it is it is holy thursday in uh in the catholic church the christian

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and christianity and this is the day that uh judas sold out jesus for uh 30 uh 30 pieces of silver

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you know and it's like the lesson of the day is don't sell your soul

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and hey tbpn kobe all these guys maybe they're selling their souls who knows

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i mean like you're guaranteed selling your soul if you sell to coinbase or open ai

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it's like there's no there's no in between uh i mean we we don't know the details of the tbpn

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sale yet.

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The Coinbase one was quite lucrative.

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I don't get this move.

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I don't get this move by OpenAI, though.

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Why did they need to buy this?

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They have so much fucking money.

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I forgot to put in the list their latest funding round.

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What was the number?

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$122 billion.

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Was not their valuation.

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No, that was how much cash they raised.

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That's fucking retarded.

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But John Arnold, our partner at 1031, he was saying that their valuation is bigger than TARP.

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Like the TARP bailout of 2008.

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OpenAI is officially worth more than that.

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Well, you know what happened, right?

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Like Altman was listening to RHR and he heard me say that they can't keep subsidizing subscriptions forever.

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And he's like, hold my beer.

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I'm going to go raise $100 plus billion.

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Yeah.

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I mean, jokes.

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Yeah, go on.

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We're getting a lot of responses from my quote suite of this episode.

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But I honestly don't understand this pick up by OpenAI.

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They have plenty of coverage.

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We don't know what the amount is.

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Maybe they want AI-fi the media side.

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I mean, look.

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Sam is a fucking robot, right?

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So if like their board, well, first of all, on the funding round, as we know well,

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we don't know when this funding round happened.

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We don't know what the specific terms are.

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You hear what they say, and usually it's a rosier picture.

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They could have closed this round months ago before the Iran war happened,

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before the current macro environment,

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before everyone's trying to pull out money

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from private credit funds and liquidity is super tight.

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And then chose to announce it now.

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And then we don't know what the specific terms of,

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you know, how that money is being provided to them.

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If it's, you know, all at once,

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there's a bunch of different ways

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that they could make that seem much bigger than it is.

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And it's in their self-interest

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to make it seem much bigger than it is.

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On the TBPN piece, I could totally see a board meeting, OpenAI board meeting where they're like, Sam, everyone hates you.

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You look like a robot.

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No one trusts you.

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You created an orb coin as well as this to scan everyone's eyeballs.

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How can we make the public like you?

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And then they were like, oh, well, everyone in tech circles really loves the TBPN guys.

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What if we just pay them $20 million to be two of our frontman lackeys?

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And then, boom, deal done.

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They have so much fucking money.

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For the TBPN side.

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Once again, you've been doing this for a year.

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You absolutely obviously have no ethical lines to begin with

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because you have 35 fucking sponsors that are just constantly ringing.

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And you get a $20 million buyout.

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Of course they fucking take it.

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I mean, once again, I'm just putting a number out there.

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No one knows the number.

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I would imagine it's higher than that.

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Yeah, exactly.

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Okay, even more so.

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But even at $20 million, it's like, okay, well, we created a podcast that we pretend is competing with CNBC that broadcasts live on X every day.

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And it's been less than a year.

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Let's just take the fucking money.

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Yeah.

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If it's higher than $20 million.

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I mean, let's be honest, right?

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It's probably majority equity where they don't have liquidity at a really insane valuation, right?

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So the numbers are probably larger than if it would have been a cash equivalent deal, right?

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It's like you're getting paid in Sam's shit coin, and we don't know when they'll IPO and when you'll have liquidity, and if that valuation even makes sense.

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Like it's probably directionally correct in this market, but I don't know.

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Is OpenAI a trillion dollar company in public markets?

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Probably.

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retarded to say out loud i don't know do you no one really knows i mean like this market's weird

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i mean i feel like they've been getting smoked by anthropic and you look like the soaring news

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last week like that was obviously like a massive loss leader that they had to cut

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well yeah i mean in our circles they're getting smoked like in more deep circles they're getting

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smoked which is also why it kind of makes sense because tbpn that's their circle right um but in

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normie land it's chat gpt and then everyone else like they're still learning what claude is if if

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that yeah well shout out to the tbpn guys i like those guys i like their coverage i know i think i

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mean i like the hustle too i mean it's hard to do a daily show like it's it's hard to do a weekly

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show it's impressive that they've done a daily show for less than a year uh yeah i mean i've seen

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the block space media guys charlie and uh colin have started the daily show people like why don't

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you do that martin like i don't feel like sitting behind my desk and like just talking to people for

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three hours every day yes we do the podcast and a live show like it's a lot of work it's not my

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format it's not my format it also means the result is and i mean i don't think we can be

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at least in recent times i don't think we can be the stewards of

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uh virtue signaling about being high signal and low noise because we've been a bit more noisy

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lately but if you do a daily show you basically you're you're you're resigning yourself to posting

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I take umbrage with that. Why are we noisy lately?

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I think we've been noisier than we have been in the past.

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And I think particularly like we kind of have our hands tied.

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I'm not making excuses. I'm literally making excuses.

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But we've had our hands tied because Bitcoin is very much a macro asset.

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So we talk about the macro stuff because you have to.

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Like the biggest impact on Bitcoin short-term price and short-term dynamics

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and medium-term dynamics is like what Trump says

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in a fucking speech or a true social post right now.

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And that's just the reality of the fucking situation.

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But I think in the past, we've been higher signal.

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But anyway, my point stands that if you do a daily show,

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you're pretty much guaranteeing that, you know,

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70% of the shit is just slop.

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And in their case, what they're really good at

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is they have a very strong network.

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And so it's usually corporate promotional slop.

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It's just like constantly just bringing a new CEO in to like shill whatever they're shilling.

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But yeah, I respect the hustle and it's impressive.

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And I mean, it's really impressive doing it for less than a year and getting a big exit into a private company.

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That's one of the hottest companies in the world in terms of people's demand for that equity, right?

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Whether you like open AI or not.

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Yeah, I don't know.

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I don't know.

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Even Anthropik.

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Time will tell.

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Time will tell.

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Don't want to add any more.

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I don't trust Anthropik for shit.

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Yeah.

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I don't either.

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What I do trust is the Bitcoin network and the fact that we can have some certainty around what's going on there.

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And on that point, let's go to Clark's dashboard where the price of Bitcoin is 66,760 cuck bucks.

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One cuck bucks is going to get you 1,498 sats.

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We're at a 1.34 trillion Cuck Buck market cap.

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We are looking at block heights, 943,392,

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which means we are less than 100 blocks away

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from the next difficulty read target.

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96 blocks to be exact, which should happen tomorrow.

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It's looking like an upwards adjustment of 3.8% blocks

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coming in at 9 minutes and 38 seconds on average.

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Clark's teeny weeny mempool is sitting with 2,062 transactions.

232
00:15:18,020 --> 00:15:25,020
in it mempool.space more than 10x at 22,359 transactions.

233
00:15:25,020 --> 00:15:29,020
Relatively cheap, you have a high priority transaction

234
00:15:29,020 --> 00:15:31,020
that you want to get through, two sats per vbyte.

235
00:15:31,020 --> 00:15:35,020
I sent one, I sent an on-chain transaction this morning,

236
00:15:35,020 --> 00:15:38,020
it was three sats per vbyte, so mempool's cooling off.

237
00:15:38,020 --> 00:15:41,020
That is the state of the network.

238
00:15:41,020 --> 00:15:42,180
That is the state of the network.

239
00:15:47,320 --> 00:15:48,420
Let's provide some signal.

240
00:15:48,520 --> 00:15:49,120
I got some signal.

241
00:15:52,620 --> 00:15:56,120
If you're going to Bitcoin 2026 in Las Vegas,

242
00:15:57,140 --> 00:15:57,720
I'm sure you've heard.

243
00:15:57,840 --> 00:15:59,000
This is actually going to be high signal.

244
00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:00,840
It's going to be a lot of high vibes,

245
00:16:00,840 --> 00:16:04,160
but officially announced RHR, PubKey,

246
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:06,960
the Bugle Boys in the mix,

247
00:16:06,960 --> 00:16:11,040
Las Vegas, April 27th,

248
00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:15,380
happening at Tau, Las Vegas, in the Venetian.

249
00:16:16,020 --> 00:16:19,760
You go to hotstyle.pubkey.com to check that out.

250
00:16:19,760 --> 00:16:22,360
It's a penthouse nightclub, right?

251
00:16:23,180 --> 00:16:24,360
No, it's a dive bar, dude.

252
00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:25,640
You've never been in Tau.

253
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:26,440
It's a dive bar.

254
00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:30,900
Yeah, I mean, freaks.

255
00:16:30,980 --> 00:16:33,620
It's kind of wild how we ended up in Tau, but we did.

256
00:16:34,660 --> 00:16:35,600
So it'll be fun.

257
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:43,940
It'll be, it'll be, if you're going to be in Vegas, it will be the, the single, the single best event of conference week.

258
00:16:44,060 --> 00:16:45,500
So come join us.

259
00:16:45,580 --> 00:16:46,540
We're going to have a fun time.

260
00:16:47,020 --> 00:16:48,780
It'd be great to meet a bunch of you in person.

261
00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:50,120
It will be.

262
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,960
We've got four VIP tickets left.

263
00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:57,960
So go check that out.

264
00:16:58,840 --> 00:16:59,940
That's what it's saying on the site.

265
00:17:00,020 --> 00:17:00,360
I don't know.

266
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:01,920
I don't know what the pub key guys are doing.

267
00:17:02,060 --> 00:17:02,380
Maybe they're.

268
00:17:02,380 --> 00:17:02,540
Yeah.

269
00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:04,120
Don't hold us to it.

270
00:17:04,120 --> 00:17:08,080
I don't know if these VIP tickets are as scarce as Bitcoin, but we'll see.

271
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:09,640
What is the domain?

272
00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,100
Hotstyle.pubkey.com.

273
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,560
They're definitely not as scarce as Bitcoin.

274
00:17:15,720 --> 00:17:17,180
They're clearly more scarce.

275
00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:20,820
Did you ever get a towel in New York?

276
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:21,420
I never went.

277
00:17:21,940 --> 00:17:22,200
No.

278
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:33,140
I mean, I think the funny part is I think most of our attendees on a normal night

279
00:17:33,140 --> 00:17:35,260
probably wouldn't be allowed dress code wise, right?

280
00:17:37,260 --> 00:17:37,700
Yeah.

281
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:39,240
So make sure you dress nice.

282
00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:41,160
No, don't dress nice.

283
00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:41,980
You don't have to.

284
00:17:42,340 --> 00:17:44,040
We paid for it.

285
00:17:44,140 --> 00:17:45,680
So you can dress however you want.

286
00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,100
I mean, I'm not going to say someone's going to show up in like a fucking banana suit.

287
00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:50,620
You can dress comfortably.

288
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,180
Now somebody definitely knows that you said that.

289
00:17:55,300 --> 00:17:58,140
I mean, I didn't pull that out of my ass.

290
00:17:58,340 --> 00:18:02,640
I had a friend who got kicked out of a casino wearing one of those full banana suits.

291
00:18:03,140 --> 00:18:12,600
i was like bro what'd you expect sometimes you gotta go for it all right on to the list we're

292
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:19,340
gonna provide signal no noise today no noise none at all uh iran imposes yuan and crypto tolls on

293
00:18:19,340 --> 00:18:25,240
ships in the strait of hermuz vessels waiting to transit the strategic waterway need to be

294
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:30,880
from friendly countries and some had to pay fees in chinese currency or crypto before being escorted

295
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:34,900
through the straights being reported by Bloomberg,

296
00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,220
Salaam El-Wardani, Alex Longley,

297
00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,360
Weilun Sun, and Serene Chong.

298
00:18:43,940 --> 00:18:45,540
How are you getting through the paywall?

299
00:18:47,620 --> 00:18:48,180
Archive.

300
00:18:48,300 --> 00:18:49,020
He's on archive.

301
00:18:49,260 --> 00:18:50,500
I'll put the link in the chat.

302
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:54,160
I mean, I...

303
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,660
How verified is this?

304
00:18:56,340 --> 00:19:00,560
Well, to be specific, the crypto piece is USD tokens.

305
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,040
Right. So presumably Tether.

306
00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:10,700
I don't think there's been any reports that they're using Bitcoin.

307
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:15,320
I think the Yuan piece is relatively confirmed and I wouldn't be surprised.

308
00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:26,960
Like, I mean, what we know, like it's way easier to send a USD token than it is to do a wire or something like that.

309
00:19:27,020 --> 00:19:29,360
So it's like one of the least surprising things.

310
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,620
And I would say in general, I think this whole story is the least surprising.

311
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:39,300
I mean, this is something we speculated pre-war.

312
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,180
We've been speculating for years.

313
00:19:42,100 --> 00:19:44,960
This move away from the dollar for global trade.

314
00:19:46,180 --> 00:19:51,560
It is ironic if they're using a blockchain-based dollar.

315
00:19:52,020 --> 00:19:56,240
But that's also because, I don't know, are there any yuan tokens?

316
00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,640
There's got to be yuan tokens, but they probably just don't have liquidity yet.

317
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,780
And I assume there's immediately converting.

318
00:20:03,380 --> 00:20:06,420
I see someone in the comments saying USDC or USDT.

319
00:20:06,540 --> 00:20:16,840
Yeah, I guess technically, but I kind of doubt they're using, you know, a regulated American-based US dollar token when Tether exists, but maybe.

320
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:26,180
But yeah, I think, you know, without being a broken record, this is a classic Mandibles, the Bitcoin standard, right?

321
00:20:26,180 --> 00:20:29,460
First, they move to other fiats.

322
00:20:29,700 --> 00:20:32,440
Maybe there's some kind of bricks-based currency in the future.

323
00:20:33,320 --> 00:20:40,460
Gold for trade is happening and is expected to increase.

324
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:53,978
And then afterwards they move to Bitcoin when they realize that all their current systems require trust and none of them trust each other But it I think a pretty important highlight to point out here

325
00:20:55,538 --> 00:20:55,978
Yeah.

326
00:20:56,158 --> 00:20:57,718
And what's the current state of the war?

327
00:20:57,778 --> 00:20:59,858
Again, I didn't watch Trump's speech last night.

328
00:20:59,918 --> 00:21:00,638
I went to bed early.

329
00:21:04,578 --> 00:21:05,518
It's a war ending.

330
00:21:05,838 --> 00:21:07,098
I saw we bombed some big bridges.

331
00:21:07,098 --> 00:21:08,418
No, it's the opposite.

332
00:21:08,418 --> 00:21:14,598
Well, I didn't watch it, but the headline was Trump said he was going to blow Iran

333
00:21:14,598 --> 00:21:18,518
to the stone age and that's why everything fucking tanked.

334
00:21:22,438 --> 00:21:28,958
And I mean, right now, Polymarket is calling for,

335
00:21:29,578 --> 00:21:31,518
they're expecting boots on the ground,

336
00:21:32,098 --> 00:21:33,258
at least by the end of the year.

337
00:21:35,178 --> 00:21:38,098
71% by the end of the year, very high volume market.

338
00:21:38,818 --> 00:21:42,078
I saw someone who made an account

339
00:21:42,078 --> 00:21:51,838
that their only other trade was making $500,000 on trading the strikes,

340
00:21:51,938 --> 00:21:59,518
the original strikes on Iran, made another bet for $800,000 on troops on the ground.

341
00:22:00,818 --> 00:22:02,358
So take that as you will.

342
00:22:02,558 --> 00:22:04,418
I think it's more likely than not.

343
00:22:04,658 --> 00:22:08,038
And I would say, I mean, I have been relatively consistent here.

344
00:22:08,038 --> 00:22:21,238
I don't, I think, I think, uh, this war is going to drag on for much longer than people realize.

345
00:22:21,458 --> 00:22:25,038
I would be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't.

346
00:22:25,818 --> 00:22:34,598
Um, but I'm operating on the assumption that, uh, it's a complete clusterfuck and it's going to go on for a long time.

347
00:22:35,738 --> 00:22:36,878
That's why I didn't do.

348
00:22:36,878 --> 00:22:38,818
So, Logan, pull up the chart.

349
00:22:39,018 --> 00:22:43,618
WTI currently trading at $104 or $103.89.

350
00:22:43,658 --> 00:22:44,558
It spiked higher.

351
00:22:44,978 --> 00:22:45,138
Yeah.

352
00:22:45,838 --> 00:22:46,978
Look at that candle.

353
00:22:47,878 --> 00:22:48,198
I know.

354
00:22:48,618 --> 00:22:53,638
If it closes at this level today, it would be the highest daily close since July of 22.

355
00:22:54,638 --> 00:23:01,838
Obviously, that was when Ukraine-Russia was popping off in earnest.

356
00:23:01,838 --> 00:23:03,278
So, who knows?

357
00:23:03,418 --> 00:23:05,778
$150 WTI could be in play.

358
00:23:06,878 --> 00:23:09,338
it's incredibly sad.

359
00:23:09,678 --> 00:23:10,978
Like we bombed that bridge.

360
00:23:11,058 --> 00:23:13,058
That's like the ethics,

361
00:23:13,578 --> 00:23:15,158
if there were ethics of war,

362
00:23:15,218 --> 00:23:15,858
but I think it's,

363
00:23:17,378 --> 00:23:20,018
there's at least been feigned ethics of war.

364
00:23:20,118 --> 00:23:21,558
Like don't bomb civilian infrastructure.

365
00:23:21,558 --> 00:23:23,978
Don't bomb energy infrastructure.

366
00:23:23,978 --> 00:23:28,558
Don't bomb desalination plants.

367
00:23:29,298 --> 00:23:31,258
And it seems like anything's on the table.

368
00:23:31,438 --> 00:23:32,698
Like they bombed that bridge today.

369
00:23:33,678 --> 00:23:34,418
Who knows?

370
00:23:34,678 --> 00:23:35,838
I've been getting called anti-American

371
00:23:35,838 --> 00:23:40,318
for simply the tft and i'm not even running the tfcc account but the guys running the account are

372
00:23:40,318 --> 00:23:44,558
just like covering what's going on people like stop spreading this anti-american propaganda it's

373
00:23:44,558 --> 00:23:49,758
like we're literally just showing showing everybody what's happening um i don't know what to tell you

374
00:23:50,398 --> 00:23:57,278
yeah i mean uh look the world is more polarized than ever i think social media is a key part of it

375
00:23:58,078 --> 00:24:05,438
whether that's bitcoin or macro or anything politics everyone is a lot of people are hurting

376
00:24:05,438 --> 00:24:12,978
and then people take it out on each other rather than the people that are causing the hurting.

377
00:24:15,498 --> 00:24:18,598
But yeah, I mean, you mentioned the desal plants.

378
00:24:18,898 --> 00:24:19,678
Like, that's wild.

379
00:24:21,618 --> 00:24:28,458
Most of those Gulf countries heavily, heavily rely on desalimization for water.

380
00:24:29,238 --> 00:24:31,318
And obviously, you need water to survive.

381
00:24:32,538 --> 00:24:35,318
Yeah, to be clear, I don't think any have been hit yet, but they've all been.

382
00:24:35,438 --> 00:24:46,558
saying no a couple have been hit have they um let me ask my should I ask my bot

383
00:24:46,558 --> 00:24:52,898
ask your bot oh yeah hit a service building had a power and water desalination

384
00:24:52,898 --> 00:24:54,318
plan in Kuwait. Where?

385
00:24:55,158 --> 00:24:55,498
In Kuwait.

386
00:24:57,318 --> 00:25:02,898
I mean, I think...

387
00:25:06,578 --> 00:25:08,898
Yeah, no, I guess...

388
00:25:08,898 --> 00:25:10,598
Was that the only one that was hit?

389
00:25:11,518 --> 00:25:12,778
No, Ron says a

390
00:25:12,778 --> 00:25:14,078
desalination plan on

391
00:25:14,078 --> 00:25:15,438
Kesham Island.

392
00:25:16,438 --> 00:25:18,538
Completely out of service after being hit

393
00:25:18,538 --> 00:25:20,758
by an airstrike. That was on the 31st.

394
00:25:21,478 --> 00:25:22,018
There you go.

395
00:25:22,898 --> 00:25:25,638
It seems like it's like total war over there.

396
00:25:28,378 --> 00:25:31,178
Everything is a target on both sides.

397
00:25:32,238 --> 00:25:32,458
Yeah.

398
00:25:33,778 --> 00:25:35,278
Good piece of chance, freaks.

399
00:25:37,098 --> 00:25:39,558
Not to sound like I'm off like a hippie, but I don't know.

400
00:25:39,778 --> 00:25:41,598
I'm not going to get too far into it.

401
00:25:41,798 --> 00:25:45,098
It's tiresome getting dragged into the...

402
00:25:45,098 --> 00:25:45,498
It's funny.

403
00:25:45,558 --> 00:25:47,878
We've been covering both sides on TFTC.

404
00:25:48,118 --> 00:25:49,158
Like I've had Tom Luongo.

405
00:25:49,158 --> 00:25:52,358
He was like, it's not Israel.

406
00:25:52,358 --> 00:25:53,518
It's the city of London.

407
00:25:53,698 --> 00:25:54,878
We're taking back control.

408
00:25:55,178 --> 00:25:56,578
It's the city of London.

409
00:25:57,078 --> 00:25:58,418
Had Mel Madison on this week.

410
00:25:58,498 --> 00:26:00,338
He was like, Israel controls the US government.

411
00:26:00,698 --> 00:26:01,938
We're doing it at the behest of them.

412
00:26:01,978 --> 00:26:03,258
We need to detach from them.

413
00:26:04,498 --> 00:26:07,018
And I'll be clear, I have no idea exactly what's going on.

414
00:26:07,058 --> 00:26:08,078
I just know that it looks bad.

415
00:26:08,578 --> 00:26:17,458
And for anybody who's confused about the series of interviews on the war that we've done at TFTC,

416
00:26:17,458 --> 00:26:20,438
it's like, I'm trying to get every perspective that is out there.

417
00:26:20,698 --> 00:26:22,298
Because I'm not over there.

418
00:26:22,358 --> 00:26:24,498
I can't see what's going on.

419
00:26:26,118 --> 00:26:29,918
So I asked, sorry.

420
00:26:30,798 --> 00:26:31,038
Go ahead.

421
00:26:31,378 --> 00:26:33,618
I was going to say optically it just looks really bad from afar.

422
00:26:36,358 --> 00:26:45,078
Yeah, I mean, like, so I asked my bot the desalinization plants question.

423
00:26:45,498 --> 00:26:49,778
So the first desalinization plant that was hit was in Iran.

424
00:26:49,898 --> 00:26:51,198
That's what Kesham Island is.

425
00:26:51,198 --> 00:27:08,198
So that was March 7th. So the U.S. supposedly hit that. And then Iran hit one in Bahrain on March 8th. And then one was hit in the UAE following that. And then most recently, one was hit in Kuwait on March 30th.

426
00:27:08,198 --> 00:27:17,838
30th um just for an accurate timeline but i mean war is fucked up to begin with but that's

427
00:27:17,838 --> 00:27:22,378
particularly fucked up is hitting people's water supplies in a fucking desert

428
00:27:22,378 --> 00:27:33,898
yeah it's not like a tropical rainforest no no then you have like israel expanding in the lebanon

429
00:27:33,898 --> 00:27:43,318
it's all all right we're not a war podcast let's move on um the uh oracle cutting down

430
00:27:43,318 --> 00:27:51,938
yeah let's move on to the happy story of uh job loss continues yeah 30 000 20 to 30 000 jobs at

431
00:27:51,938 --> 00:27:59,538
oracle and i think this is only going to accelerate unfortunately um so oracle is one of those

432
00:27:59,538 --> 00:28:09,838
companies i've highlighted google in the past um google has 190 000 employees uh which is just

433
00:28:09,838 --> 00:28:16,738
wild it's like hard to comprehend how many people that is um i think oracle i just asked my bot but

434
00:28:16,738 --> 00:28:24,638
i was gonna say 160 000 employees so like first of all oh there it is it's in the screenshot 162

435
00:28:24,638 --> 00:28:30,038
thousand employees who what do these people do i don't know what they do i mean it was clearly

436
00:28:30,038 --> 00:28:38,578
over hiring to begin with um but ai is going to accelerate this reversion to mean um and it really

437
00:28:38,578 --> 00:28:47,058
you don't need broad-based ai-led unemployment to significantly hit the economy all you need is

438
00:28:47,058 --> 00:28:52,758
these big tech companies that have you know two football stadiums worth of employees uh to start

439
00:28:52,758 --> 00:28:54,758
cutting big and cutting hard.

440
00:28:55,418 --> 00:28:57,458
And they're doing it ruthlessly.

441
00:28:58,238 --> 00:28:59,378
Like Oracle sent just,

442
00:28:59,698 --> 00:29:01,738
they just got an email at 6 a.m.

443
00:29:02,038 --> 00:29:03,318
I saw one report, you know,

444
00:29:03,618 --> 00:29:04,938
impossible to verify this shit.

445
00:29:05,358 --> 00:29:06,658
But like one guy's been working there

446
00:29:06,658 --> 00:29:07,938
for 20 plus years.

447
00:29:08,698 --> 00:29:10,518
He's like a couple of years from retirement.

448
00:29:10,658 --> 00:29:12,438
He just wakes up one morning, 6 a.m.

449
00:29:12,438 --> 00:29:15,438
You're fired, lose access to all of your accounts.

450
00:29:17,598 --> 00:29:18,798
It's fucked up.

451
00:29:18,798 --> 00:29:40,438
And it's definitely being, I won't say suppressed, but there has been a deliberate attempt by the wealthy elite to make it seem like this is not a trend that is accelerating when it's going to get much worse out there, unfortunately.

452
00:29:41,558 --> 00:29:43,678
So we covered it yesterday in the Bitcoin brief.

453
00:29:43,678 --> 00:29:51,738
I think the signal here, as we said, 6 a.m. termination emails across U.S., India, Canada, Mexico, 18% of the global workforce.

454
00:29:52,318 --> 00:29:57,418
Company cited current business needs and is redirecting capital towards AI data center spending.

455
00:29:57,998 --> 00:29:58,578
Here's a signal.

456
00:29:58,698 --> 00:30:00,718
Shares rose 2% on the announcement.

457
00:30:00,898 --> 00:30:01,618
Oracle's headcount.

458
00:30:02,458 --> 00:30:03,418
And here's some context.

459
00:30:03,418 --> 00:30:13,538
Oracle's headcount swelled from $132,000 in 2021 to $164,000 in 2023, largely through an acquisition of Cerner Healthcare.

460
00:30:13,678 --> 00:30:22,398
um but yeah it looks like they're cutting bait to reinvest in the ai infrastructure build out

461
00:30:22,398 --> 00:30:26,778
that they're part of like stargate isn't that crumbling they're like super over levered

462
00:30:26,778 --> 00:30:32,798
yeah and meanwhile larry ellison is like gobbling up all the media assets including tiktok us

463
00:30:32,798 --> 00:30:37,018
um so

464
00:30:37,018 --> 00:30:54,378
So, yeah, I mean, similar story, by the way, on that timeline, by the way, similar story to what we saw with Block, right, which is there was massive overhiring during COVID printing.

465
00:30:54,778 --> 00:30:57,958
And then this is kind of like a reversion back to the mean.

466
00:30:58,558 --> 00:31:00,618
But once again, I don't think they're done.

467
00:31:01,458 --> 00:31:02,638
Like, I don't think Block's done.

468
00:31:02,638 --> 00:31:13,858
I mean, Jack just released, he released that, what he co-wrote with the partner at Sequoia about how they're going to lean even more into AI and automation at the company.

469
00:31:14,038 --> 00:31:24,058
And that the fact that they're a remote first company makes it easier because everything is in Slack and well-documented and stuff, which is super easy to put into these LLMs.

470
00:31:25,278 --> 00:31:28,318
So I wouldn't be surprised if he's not done.

471
00:31:28,738 --> 00:31:30,998
I mean, he's still got 5,000 employees there.

472
00:31:30,998 --> 00:31:38,598
I mean what Oracle now has 130 to 140 that we don't have a football stadium that can hold all

473
00:31:38,598 --> 00:31:47,878
the employees at Oracle that remain so I don't know guys you got to cover your ass

474
00:31:47,878 --> 00:31:52,578
you got to protect your families you got to prepare prepare for the worst hope for the best but

475
00:31:52,578 --> 00:31:57,918
god I mean I think this accelerates and gets significantly worse and then just imagine just

476
00:31:57,918 --> 00:32:03,678
imagine you work at this fucking company for 20 30 years you get a 6 a.m email find out you're like

477
00:32:03,678 --> 00:32:10,258
you're completely fucked you're unemployable you're not going to be rehired you have bills to pay

478
00:32:10,258 --> 00:32:16,578
and then you you open cnbc or bloomberg or whatever when markets open and the fucking stock is up

479
00:32:16,578 --> 00:32:26,618
it's just like surging yeah i mean specifically if you're at like a massive company if you're at a

480
00:32:26,618 --> 00:32:31,498
company with more than 5,000 employees, I would seriously consider hedging your bets.

481
00:32:33,078 --> 00:32:39,578
We've talked about this a lot. I think upstarts with lean teams definitely have the advantage

482
00:32:39,578 --> 00:32:47,538
here in the AI age. Extending their capabilities, not having to cut headcount because they don't

483
00:32:47,538 --> 00:32:55,718
have a big one in the first place. Headcount was a vanity metric for these tech companies

484
00:32:55,718 --> 00:33:00,018
specifically not too long ago, like pre-COVID.

485
00:33:00,718 --> 00:33:03,218
If you wanted to raise money, you highlighted how many employees you had.

486
00:33:04,058 --> 00:33:04,478
And now-

487
00:33:04,478 --> 00:33:05,718
Yeah, I mean, I would say, yeah.

488
00:33:06,878 --> 00:33:09,678
I would say on the Bitcoiner side, this is like, once again,

489
00:33:10,218 --> 00:33:12,018
you know, maybe for different reasons,

490
00:33:13,258 --> 00:33:16,658
but this was something that not just Bitcoin companies,

491
00:33:16,658 --> 00:33:19,218
but any company that was led by a Bitcoiner was ahead of

492
00:33:19,878 --> 00:33:24,978
because of the opportunity cost of every person you hire is Bitcoin.

493
00:33:24,978 --> 00:33:25,858
that's not stacked.

494
00:33:27,958 --> 00:33:29,718
So Bitcoiners have already been operating

495
00:33:29,718 --> 00:33:30,758
in a hard money environment.

496
00:33:31,998 --> 00:33:36,558
So the effect there among Bitcoin-led businesses,

497
00:33:36,778 --> 00:33:37,998
and once again, I'm not even talking about

498
00:33:37,998 --> 00:33:40,258
just like Strike or something.

499
00:33:43,198 --> 00:33:45,898
Strike has been very, very deliberate

500
00:33:45,898 --> 00:33:48,638
about keeping headcount low and efficient and lean

501
00:33:48,638 --> 00:33:51,038
and trying to be as profitable as possible

502
00:33:51,038 --> 00:33:51,898
and stack as much Bitcoin.

503
00:33:51,898 --> 00:33:57,298
But I'm talking about like the local plumber shop that's run by a Bitcoiner.

504
00:33:57,498 --> 00:34:05,698
You know, it's like they've been very deliberate at reducing headcount because we've been living in a hard money environment for 10 years.

505
00:34:07,578 --> 00:34:14,738
While these people, these fiat people are getting whacked in the face with it in 24 months or something.

506
00:34:15,818 --> 00:34:15,958
Yeah.

507
00:34:17,798 --> 00:34:19,118
Stay frosty out there.

508
00:34:19,878 --> 00:34:20,858
Learn the tools.

509
00:34:20,858 --> 00:34:24,078
onto the next topic, more optimistic,

510
00:34:24,278 --> 00:34:26,138
and I think it will lead to a broader discussion

511
00:34:26,138 --> 00:34:27,738
about quantum risk in Bitcoin.

512
00:34:28,058 --> 00:34:30,098
But this was cool to see from Jonas Nix.

513
00:34:31,058 --> 00:34:33,778
Please welcome shrimps to the family of stateful

514
00:34:33,778 --> 00:34:37,358
PQ signatures, post-quantum signatures,

515
00:34:37,498 --> 00:34:41,138
2.5 kilobyte hash-based SIGs across multiple devices.

516
00:34:41,138 --> 00:34:44,738
Shrinks gave around 324 byte SIGs,

517
00:34:44,798 --> 00:34:46,258
but is single device.

518
00:34:46,398 --> 00:34:48,158
Shrimps addresses multi-device.

519
00:34:48,258 --> 00:34:49,818
Any device loaded from the same seed

520
00:34:49,818 --> 00:34:53,978
creates SIGs 3x smaller than SLH DSA.

521
00:34:56,098 --> 00:34:56,658
This is cool to say,

522
00:34:56,738 --> 00:34:59,518
so you didn't listen to the podcast

523
00:34:59,518 --> 00:35:02,318
I did with Jonas and Mikhail Kudinov

524
00:35:02,318 --> 00:35:03,358
a couple months ago

525
00:35:03,358 --> 00:35:07,038
on their hash-based signature research paper

526
00:35:07,038 --> 00:35:08,478
that they put out, Shrink Plus,

527
00:35:09,658 --> 00:35:15,158
was one of these post-quantum signature schemes

528
00:35:15,158 --> 00:35:16,738
that they were researching

529
00:35:16,738 --> 00:35:18,678
and sort of highlighted as,

530
00:35:18,678 --> 00:35:22,098
Okay, if we're going to do a hash-based signature scheme that is quantum resistant,

531
00:35:22,398 --> 00:35:26,118
the Shrinks Plus primitive seems like a good thing to build off of.

532
00:35:26,118 --> 00:35:30,078
The problem with pure Shrinks Plus, as he highlights here,

533
00:35:30,478 --> 00:35:35,098
is the way in which Shrinks Plus was designed,

534
00:35:35,498 --> 00:35:38,118
you can only have like a single SIG per hardware device,

535
00:35:38,318 --> 00:35:42,778
and you can't really recover easily because of the stateless nature of the key.

536
00:35:42,778 --> 00:36:00,298
And so it looks like shrimps is the solution to that sort of tinkering with that in a way that makes it so you can set up a private public key pair, get a seed phrase, and then recover that seed phrase on hardware devices up to a certain limit.

537
00:36:00,458 --> 00:36:04,478
I believe there's like a limit of 1,024 times or something like that.

538
00:36:04,558 --> 00:36:10,858
They can actually recover from seed without introducing entropy to your private key.

539
00:36:10,858 --> 00:36:17,138
But for those who are worried about quantum resistance, this is a step in the right direction.

540
00:36:17,138 --> 00:36:41,718
So specifically, there was a new round of quantum FUD this week because Google released a research paper in partnership with an Ethereum foundation guy that said that quantum is going to break Bitcoin by 2029, I think was the headline.

541
00:36:42,858 --> 00:36:46,458
Could potentially, if the assumption in this paper.

542
00:36:47,138 --> 00:36:56,698
If you make an ass out of you and me, which I think is a very aggressive timeline that is unlikely by an order of magnitude.

543
00:36:57,598 --> 00:37:11,898
That said, this research was perfectly timely when it was released because this perception that Bitcoiners are sleeping at the wheel here is just absolutely wrong.

544
00:37:12,758 --> 00:37:14,538
It couldn't be further from the truth.

545
00:37:14,538 --> 00:37:28,618
Now, there's some trade-offs when we talk about quantum high level, which is, first of all, this risk is theoretical based on a lot of assumptions.

546
00:37:29,258 --> 00:37:39,698
And there's always a danger making proactive decisions on something as important as Bitcoin on a theoretical concern, not a hard concern.

547
00:37:39,698 --> 00:37:47,998
The second piece is anything that requires quantum resistance is going to use significantly more block space.

548
00:37:48,498 --> 00:37:52,998
So you have, first of all, you have the concern of using novel crypto, right?

549
00:37:53,038 --> 00:38:01,898
So new primitives like new math, new tech to secure these things, which in themselves could have backdoors or issues, right?

550
00:38:01,898 --> 00:38:03,298
So you don't want to rush into a change.

551
00:38:03,578 --> 00:38:06,878
And then the second piece is they're a lot more burdensome on chain, right?

552
00:38:06,878 --> 00:38:08,138
They're using a lot more data.

553
00:38:08,758 --> 00:38:10,558
Obviously, data is scarce in Bitcoin.

554
00:38:11,578 --> 00:38:15,678
We've been neck deep in a quote-unquote spam war for the last two years.

555
00:38:16,278 --> 00:38:18,918
People arguing about chain usage.

556
00:38:18,918 --> 00:38:32,018
Well, quantum signatures will make all of that even more burdensome, and we would see much higher fee rates as a result and more burden on nodes.

557
00:38:32,018 --> 00:38:52,278
Um, so what's cool here is this proposal, this early research would do something that would allow people to migrate to a quantum protected scheme or quantum resistance scheme, um, without doing it proactively.

558
00:38:53,238 --> 00:38:57,378
So you could continue, my understanding is you continue to use less burdensome signatures.

559
00:38:58,018 --> 00:39:06,558
And then if a quantum event happened, afterwards, you can use your seed to then transact securely.

560
00:39:06,558 --> 00:39:10,658
So you don't have to ahead of time take the full burden.

561
00:39:11,878 --> 00:39:17,518
You basically take a partial chain burden, is my understanding, before taking the full burden.

562
00:39:17,518 --> 00:39:23,358
So it would still be more expensive and more data heavy than a typical Bitcoin transaction in the lead up.

563
00:39:24,038 --> 00:39:29,838
But it wouldn't be like a full, once again, this is above my pay grade.

564
00:39:30,018 --> 00:39:31,318
This is my basic understanding.

565
00:39:31,578 --> 00:39:33,198
Well, I don't think it wouldn't be a full burden.

566
00:39:33,778 --> 00:39:37,718
I think you'd have to create a whole new private public key pair transition Bitcoin.

567
00:39:37,878 --> 00:39:38,758
Not my point.

568
00:39:39,198 --> 00:39:47,318
My point is you're not using like these super heavy quantum signatures on chain that are being stored in people's nodes and verified in people's nodes.

569
00:39:47,318 --> 00:39:50,978
That's the whole reason it's stateless, is my understanding.

570
00:39:51,538 --> 00:40:06,158
And then at that time, if there is a quantum day where shit's breaking or whatever, you would then be able to use your seed to then securely transact your Bitcoin going forward in a heavier way.

571
00:40:08,238 --> 00:40:10,598
And I will say that makes a lot of sense to me.

572
00:40:10,838 --> 00:40:15,878
That is a nice middle ground because, once again, the concern is theoretical.

573
00:40:15,878 --> 00:40:36,858
And I think most people would probably agree with at least high level that being the strategy, right? So you like create new wallets, but you're not burdening the chain with these super heavy signatures. And then after, if for some reason we need to, then we'd have a graceful way to transition going forward.

574
00:40:37,758 --> 00:40:47,598
This obviously leaves out the whole discussion about freezing or seizing Bitcoin that hasn't been moved.

575
00:40:48,718 --> 00:40:56,258
I think that's going to be a much more polarizing argument and debate,

576
00:40:56,258 --> 00:41:02,058
and it probably will just result in a fork where people are attacking each other and trading against each other,

577
00:41:02,158 --> 00:41:03,698
and it could be a bit chaotic.

578
00:41:03,698 --> 00:41:11,598
uh but um i think the general premise that if we could have a setup where you can be prepared ahead

579
00:41:11,598 --> 00:41:16,518
of time but you're not taking the full cost that both the network isn't taking the full cost and

580
00:41:16,518 --> 00:41:20,238
individuals aren't taking full cost for that preparation unless it's absolutely necessary

581
00:41:20,238 --> 00:41:27,338
is like the ideal path yeah the um i mean the other thing obviously these signatures take up

582
00:41:27,338 --> 00:41:33,218
lot of space but the other thing to consider is signing right like since the

583
00:41:33,218 --> 00:41:47,916
signatures are so large it one thing the Jonas and Mikhail highlights me when I recorded with them it like that like if you want the UX for like exchange withdrawals and all that to remain somewhat similar you have like multi

584
00:41:48,036 --> 00:41:50,076
Who knows if multi-sig would even be in the same form

585
00:41:50,076 --> 00:41:54,716
on a post-quantum signature algorithm.

586
00:41:54,716 --> 00:41:59,876
But it's going to take way longer if they can't compress

587
00:41:59,876 --> 00:42:06,476
the size of the signatures down far enough, like signing.

588
00:42:07,036 --> 00:42:09,676
Actually, the time it takes to sign a transaction

589
00:42:09,676 --> 00:42:11,076
is going to go up significantly too.

590
00:42:11,396 --> 00:42:13,396
So that throws like a UX hurdle, coordination hurdle,

591
00:42:13,876 --> 00:42:15,156
all that into the next.

592
00:42:15,196 --> 00:42:18,856
And all this is to be said, I think taking a step back

593
00:42:18,856 --> 00:42:21,396
and just addressing the Google paper

594
00:42:21,396 --> 00:42:28,776
and the manic finger wagging at the Bitcoin developer community

595
00:42:28,776 --> 00:42:33,256
to to figure it out to do something about it like i think it's completely unproductive and

596
00:42:33,816 --> 00:42:38,536
i actually recorded with reared and code this morning brandon black will be released on

597
00:42:40,056 --> 00:42:45,016
saturday and i think anybody who isn't should go follow him i think he's doing a good job and that's

598
00:42:45,016 --> 00:42:50,696
one thing that is incredibly uh i don't know if it's disingenuous but i think it's at least

599
00:42:50,696 --> 00:42:56,456
short-sighted and it would be disingenuous if these people know it and they're actively

600
00:42:56,456 --> 00:43:03,416
being as manic as they are but what these papers are describing is that like they found a theoretical

601
00:43:03,416 --> 00:43:10,136
advancement and some like quantum uh algorithm that makes it if they found like a more efficient

602
00:43:10,136 --> 00:43:19,656
path to um to solve shore's algorithm or to use shore's algorithm to break ecdsa what was there

603
00:43:20,296 --> 00:43:24,376
completely disregarding is that like yes you may theoretically like have come up with a better

604
00:43:24,376 --> 00:43:31,496
algorithm to do all this math. However, you need a computer to run software that does that math for

605
00:43:31,496 --> 00:43:37,416
you. And so you need the physical qubits to actually make that possible. And so I think

606
00:43:37,416 --> 00:43:43,416
it's objectively true that the theoretical advancements are happening and they are probably

607
00:43:43,416 --> 00:43:51,256
finding more efficient ways to break ECDSA in the theoretical world. When it comes to the world of

608
00:43:51,256 --> 00:43:56,856
applied physics and quantum physics like the computers that are necessary to actually run

609
00:43:57,416 --> 00:44:03,256
those algorithms simply don't exist and they haven't even found like a standardized architecture

610
00:44:03,816 --> 00:44:11,656
to begin iterating on um and so that's like the most frustrating thing about this like i'm not

611
00:44:11,656 --> 00:44:18,616
going to be i i am not a physicist i'm not a cryptographer i do not have enough knowledge

612
00:44:18,616 --> 00:44:21,576
to be confident enough to say that i don't think this is ever going to happen

613
00:44:22,376 --> 00:44:32,136
um i am more confident to say i don't think it's going to happen by 2029 uh and the sort of hand

614
00:44:32,136 --> 00:44:37,896
wavy devs do something if you don't fix this soon like bitcoin's going to go to zero we're going to

615
00:44:37,896 --> 00:44:43,016
fire the devs and the corporations are going to replace you with somebody who will do something

616
00:44:43,016 --> 00:44:47,096
It's like people like we just, Shrimps is out there.

617
00:44:47,096 --> 00:44:50,056
Obviously, BIP360 is out there.

618
00:44:50,896 --> 00:44:53,696
I'm not going to spoil anything, but Reardon Code,

619
00:44:54,416 --> 00:44:58,416
he's got a big section, Optech Weekly next week,

620
00:44:58,416 --> 00:45:02,296
about another sort of quantum resistant algorithm

621
00:45:03,056 --> 00:45:04,896
that the Bitcoin mailing list has been talking about.

622
00:45:04,896 --> 00:45:08,296
He does a deep dive on that in tomorrow's Bitcoin Optech,

623
00:45:08,296 --> 00:45:10,296
so make sure you subscribe to that.

624
00:45:10,296 --> 00:45:31,336
But long story short, it's complete, the sky is falling, manic antics, and it could be detrimental to Bitcoin if we do rush things in an attempt to appease people who think quantum computing is going to be here in three years at scale.

625
00:45:31,336 --> 00:45:37,296
when based off the information that I've digested

626
00:45:37,296 --> 00:45:40,756
and everything I've read, it doesn't seem to be the case

627
00:45:40,756 --> 00:45:43,256
because the physical computers, the quantum computers,

628
00:45:43,856 --> 00:45:49,776
the physical qubits needed to apply the theoretical algorithms

629
00:45:49,776 --> 00:45:51,856
that are being discovered don't exist

630
00:45:51,856 --> 00:45:53,316
and aren't even close to existing.

631
00:45:55,916 --> 00:45:57,736
And that's what I have to say about that.

632
00:45:58,636 --> 00:46:01,236
Yeah, like we need proper research.

633
00:46:01,336 --> 00:46:02,516
We need to be deliberate here.

634
00:46:02,816 --> 00:46:04,716
We need to make no mistakes.

635
00:46:05,316 --> 00:46:08,596
And that is what the developer community is doing right now.

636
00:46:10,256 --> 00:46:13,676
And I personally think we're in a pretty good spot.

637
00:46:14,336 --> 00:46:19,176
I will say this is like the best FUD we've seen to date,

638
00:46:19,396 --> 00:46:20,736
which is kind of new and exciting

639
00:46:20,736 --> 00:46:23,956
because through all the years of Rabbit Hole Recap,

640
00:46:24,056 --> 00:46:26,156
it's usually the same FUD recycled over and over again.

641
00:46:26,156 --> 00:46:28,476
And there's a little bit of this that is recycled.

642
00:46:28,476 --> 00:46:32,476
We've been, I mean, even Satoshi himself commented about quantum stuff.

643
00:46:32,796 --> 00:46:35,236
Like it has been circulating, but not to this degree.

644
00:46:36,876 --> 00:46:38,376
And what does FUD stand for?

645
00:46:38,556 --> 00:46:40,476
It stands for fear, uncertainty, and doubt.

646
00:46:40,556 --> 00:46:46,376
And I think there is a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt, valid and non-valid, surrounding the quantum stuff.

647
00:46:47,416 --> 00:46:48,576
And it's very complicated.

648
00:46:48,576 --> 00:46:55,936
So it's hard for people to, you know, make their own decisions and make their own analysis of it.

649
00:46:55,936 --> 00:47:01,676
I mean, Marty said, you know, he's not a physicist.

650
00:47:01,956 --> 00:47:03,636
He's not a quantum researcher.

651
00:47:03,916 --> 00:47:10,236
There's like 50 people, 100 people in the world that are like relatively competent on this shit.

652
00:47:11,116 --> 00:47:12,996
99% aren't.

653
00:47:14,076 --> 00:47:20,716
But I think we can have a very deliberate mitigation here.

654
00:47:20,976 --> 00:47:22,876
And I think, like I said, I think that's the path.

655
00:47:22,876 --> 00:47:28,996
I think the path is you give people a reasonable upgrade path.

656
00:47:29,136 --> 00:47:31,036
They can opt into it if they want to.

657
00:47:31,996 --> 00:47:37,436
And they don't have to do the full weight signatures until after they're absolutely necessary.

658
00:47:38,756 --> 00:47:40,336
But love to see this research.

659
00:47:40,416 --> 00:47:41,996
Love to see more discussion about it.

660
00:47:42,796 --> 00:47:46,196
Unfortunately, this type of discussion will not be happening in Austin at BitDubs.

661
00:47:49,316 --> 00:47:50,536
Did you see that news?

662
00:47:50,536 --> 00:47:52,196
Do you have an inside track?

663
00:47:52,196 --> 00:47:56,036
I wanted to add one more thing to your point, which is like,

664
00:47:56,736 --> 00:48:01,816
the other thing about hand-waving at Bitcoin devs, do something.

665
00:48:02,056 --> 00:48:07,396
It's like, I went and asked questions to all these different developers.

666
00:48:07,616 --> 00:48:09,616
Some of these people are working on P2P part of Bitcoin.

667
00:48:09,736 --> 00:48:10,676
Some people are working on the wallets.

668
00:48:10,676 --> 00:48:11,856
Yeah, they're completely unrelated.

669
00:48:13,536 --> 00:48:16,316
There's only so many people who understand the cryptography.

670
00:48:16,316 --> 00:48:23,596
and then within that circle who are equipped enough to understand post-quantum cryptographic primitives.

671
00:48:24,096 --> 00:48:29,056
And from my observation, the people that are able to do that are working on it

672
00:48:29,056 --> 00:48:32,896
and seem to be working on it pretty vigorously.

673
00:48:33,276 --> 00:48:35,256
Shout out to Jonas Nick for everything he's doing.

674
00:48:37,516 --> 00:48:38,116
That's the thing.

675
00:48:38,176 --> 00:48:39,476
And I was asking this to Reardon Code.

676
00:48:39,576 --> 00:48:40,856
He couldn't give me, like, what is the line?

677
00:48:41,036 --> 00:48:43,276
Like, what date do we get to?

678
00:48:43,276 --> 00:48:46,916
and you can put this both ways

679
00:48:46,916 --> 00:48:48,856
like let's say we get to

680
00:48:48,856 --> 00:48:50,216
March

681
00:48:50,216 --> 00:48:52,456
April 1st, 2029

682
00:48:52,456 --> 00:48:53,876
no quantum computers here

683
00:48:53,876 --> 00:48:56,736
it seems pretty clear that Bitcoin private keys

684
00:48:56,736 --> 00:48:58,876
aren't going to be broken by quantum

685
00:48:58,876 --> 00:49:00,536
computers, are we able to say okay

686
00:49:00,536 --> 00:49:01,576
you guys shut up

687
00:49:01,576 --> 00:49:03,156
you're fear-mongering

688
00:49:03,156 --> 00:49:06,436
that's what makes it so difficult

689
00:49:06,436 --> 00:49:07,756
that's why it's such good fun

690
00:49:07,756 --> 00:49:10,536
because it will just get pushed off

691
00:49:10,536 --> 00:49:11,396
and

692
00:49:11,396 --> 00:49:15,196
And it'll always be a potential in the future.

693
00:49:17,996 --> 00:49:34,596
And where the critics are valid is Bitcoin is the hardest thing to make quantum resistant because nobody controls it by design, because changes are very difficult to implement on a network scale.

694
00:49:34,596 --> 00:49:44,796
And then last but not least is even when we do provide an opt-in path for people, it takes people time to actually opt into it, right?

695
00:49:44,876 --> 00:49:47,116
It needs to be a multi-year process.

696
00:49:47,276 --> 00:49:49,456
It's going to probably be a decade-long process.

697
00:49:50,996 --> 00:49:54,376
Fortunately, I think the timelines are completely wrong.

698
00:49:55,976 --> 00:49:58,776
But it is important that we get ahead of it.

699
00:49:58,776 --> 00:50:13,856
And I think that's what's nice about this type of scheme, right, which is it lowers friction and the switching costs in the near term until users actually need it.

700
00:50:14,036 --> 00:50:15,896
And that's when you pay the heavier costs.

701
00:50:16,716 --> 00:50:23,356
And I think as a result, it'd be more likely to find consensus on adding it to Bitcoin.

702
00:50:23,516 --> 00:50:26,636
I think it'd be more likely for people to use it in the first place.

703
00:50:26,636 --> 00:50:29,516
but yeah we definitely

704
00:50:29,516 --> 00:50:33,276
like all good FUD

705
00:50:33,276 --> 00:50:34,676
there is

706
00:50:34,676 --> 00:50:37,736
some morsels of truth

707
00:50:37,736 --> 00:50:39,516
in there and why people should be concerned

708
00:50:39,516 --> 00:50:41,616
the big piece that is wrong

709
00:50:41,616 --> 00:50:43,536
is that nobody's thinking about it

710
00:50:43,536 --> 00:50:44,836
and nobody's working on it

711
00:50:44,836 --> 00:50:47,456
and that Bitcoin

712
00:50:47,456 --> 00:50:49,556
doesn't have a reasonable upgrade

713
00:50:49,556 --> 00:50:51,836
path to make this a reality in the future

714
00:50:51,836 --> 00:50:53,136
yeah

715
00:50:53,136 --> 00:50:55,796
and to your point about it's going to take a while

716
00:50:55,796 --> 00:51:06,016
I mean, we do have one precedent of changing the private public key generator algorithm,

717
00:51:06,196 --> 00:51:08,656
which is the implementation of Schnorr.

718
00:51:09,696 --> 00:51:14,296
And that was something like Satoshi was asked earlier, like, why don't you use Schnorr signatures?

719
00:51:14,456 --> 00:51:15,916
I think it was patented at the time.

720
00:51:16,436 --> 00:51:18,956
But he also mentioned like, hey, it's not battle tested.

721
00:51:19,156 --> 00:51:22,676
So we're going to go with ECDSA, which is down the line of Schnorr.

722
00:51:22,676 --> 00:51:26,916
proves that it has survived the test of time

723
00:51:26,916 --> 00:51:29,016
and the patent comes off, we can implement it later.

724
00:51:29,256 --> 00:51:29,756
And that happened.

725
00:51:29,896 --> 00:51:32,496
But that process took, what, 13, 14 years

726
00:51:32,496 --> 00:51:34,576
before it actually got implemented.

727
00:51:34,896 --> 00:51:38,076
And what is Schnorr adoption at right now?

728
00:51:40,016 --> 00:51:41,116
Not that much.

729
00:51:41,856 --> 00:51:42,076
Yeah.

730
00:51:42,076 --> 00:51:43,296
But it should.

731
00:51:44,036 --> 00:51:49,856
It is an acknowledgement that we have made

732
00:51:49,856 --> 00:51:55,076
this type of upgrade to private public key algorithms

733
00:51:55,076 --> 00:51:58,176
to generating how we generate our private public keys

734
00:51:58,176 --> 00:52:00,616
before using specific algorithms.

735
00:52:01,736 --> 00:52:04,656
Yeah, I mean, and I'd say while we're on that,

736
00:52:04,656 --> 00:52:09,656
I think Schnorr could be a...

737
00:52:09,656 --> 00:52:12,576
We don't really have that many examples that we can pull from,

738
00:52:13,116 --> 00:52:14,396
but it's not like a perfect example

739
00:52:14,396 --> 00:52:17,456
because there's not a strong incentive to switch.

740
00:52:17,456 --> 00:52:21,556
definitely not as as strong as like your money gets stolen.

741
00:52:21,736 --> 00:52:24,256
There's really no stronger incentive than your money gets stolen.

742
00:52:25,056 --> 00:52:37,136
So I think there's a very strong incentive for anyone who relies on Bitcoin to get this right

743
00:52:37,136 --> 00:52:42,496
and to do it deliberately and smart.

744
00:52:43,236 --> 00:52:47,056
And then once there's an option for people to actually move to it,

745
00:52:47,456 --> 00:52:57,696
And then last but not least, I mean, the fail-safe, like, break glass Bitcoin upgrade path has always been hard forks.

746
00:52:58,396 --> 00:53:00,256
Anyone can hard fork at will.

747
00:53:02,556 --> 00:53:07,316
So in that situation, you have two chains and they trade against each other.

748
00:53:07,316 --> 00:53:19,236
And I think we've never seen a responsible, well-demanded hard fork in Bitcoin's history.

749
00:53:19,516 --> 00:53:21,876
I mean, Bcash was like an absolute fucking joke.

750
00:53:22,556 --> 00:53:37,296
And I think if push came to shove and you absolutely had to, let's say it seems like quantum day is like six months away and we haven't made any progress.

751
00:53:37,316 --> 00:53:40,056
which once again, I don't think it's going to be the reality, but let's just say,

752
00:53:40,336 --> 00:53:47,956
then you could have a team of very competent developers, fork the chain, have a hard fork,

753
00:53:48,176 --> 00:53:52,156
and then the market can decide, the two tokens would trade against each other,

754
00:53:52,216 --> 00:53:55,056
and the market could decide which way they wanted to proceed.

755
00:53:55,876 --> 00:54:01,796
And it would basically turn into a prediction market on is quantum real or not.

756
00:54:02,136 --> 00:54:03,176
That's what would happen.

757
00:54:03,176 --> 00:54:05,656
And if you did nothing, you would have both sides.

758
00:54:05,656 --> 00:54:07,116
so

759
00:54:07,116 --> 00:54:09,896
just something

760
00:54:09,896 --> 00:54:11,616
to put out there

761
00:54:11,616 --> 00:54:12,596
I will say that

762
00:54:12,596 --> 00:54:15,876
yeah

763
00:54:15,876 --> 00:54:17,676
I don't know about you but

764
00:54:17,676 --> 00:54:19,816
I've been getting a lot of inbound

765
00:54:19,816 --> 00:54:21,176
on this stuff

766
00:54:21,176 --> 00:54:23,916
it is

767
00:54:23,916 --> 00:54:25,336
rocking a lot of people

768
00:54:25,336 --> 00:54:28,356
well and that's like

769
00:54:28,356 --> 00:54:30,276
so that's the other narratives going around there

770
00:54:30,276 --> 00:54:31,796
like see people

771
00:54:31,796 --> 00:54:33,996
that agree with us saying this

772
00:54:33,996 --> 00:54:37,556
Well, the threat isn't actually quantum computing.

773
00:54:37,556 --> 00:54:41,076
It's the perception of the threat of quantum computing.

774
00:54:43,556 --> 00:54:48,076
Even if the threat isn't real, the perception that it may be real is enough to tank Bitcoin.

775
00:54:48,216 --> 00:54:50,036
It's like, well, what do you do then?

776
00:54:50,696 --> 00:54:51,936
Call it the best we can do.

777
00:54:52,096 --> 00:54:53,656
Have a conversation like we're having now.

778
00:54:54,476 --> 00:54:55,136
I'm sorry.

779
00:54:55,196 --> 00:54:56,096
I don't know what to tell you, people.

780
00:55:00,756 --> 00:55:03,036
What about the perception of Austin BidDev's ending?

781
00:55:03,996 --> 00:55:11,676
we'll get yeah i mean it's on a hyena pour one out i mean i was actually uh

782
00:55:12,636 --> 00:55:15,836
i was talking to a good friend rod rudy yesterday about this and uh

783
00:55:17,436 --> 00:55:25,596
it is i mean ben said it in his tweet uh so many people are focused on ai right now and i think we

784
00:55:25,596 --> 00:55:29,636
We both are. Many people in our circles are.

785
00:55:29,816 --> 00:55:30,816
And I think it makes sense.

786
00:55:32,236 --> 00:55:34,276
And there's only...

787
00:55:36,036 --> 00:55:38,296
Austin BitDevs has a special place in my heart.

788
00:55:38,556 --> 00:55:40,096
I think it's part of the reason I moved to Austin.

789
00:55:40,856 --> 00:55:42,276
Went down there in the thick of COVID.

790
00:55:42,756 --> 00:55:44,296
Austin BitDevs was still up and running.

791
00:55:44,456 --> 00:55:44,996
Packed room.

792
00:55:45,996 --> 00:55:50,556
Hundreds of people in Unchained's old offices on Fifth Street.

793
00:55:51,616 --> 00:55:52,496
And I learned a lot.

794
00:55:52,716 --> 00:55:54,276
I mean, we've talked about New York BitDevs.

795
00:55:54,276 --> 00:55:56,716
Austin BitDevs is great

796
00:55:56,716 --> 00:55:57,996
Nashville BitDevs is great

797
00:55:57,996 --> 00:56:00,756
San Francisco BitDevs, a ton of BitDevs

798
00:56:00,756 --> 00:56:02,436
Austin is just one of many

799
00:56:02,436 --> 00:56:04,476
Ben and Buck Purley have been

800
00:56:04,476 --> 00:56:06,636
holding down the fort for many years

801
00:56:06,636 --> 00:56:07,136
and I think

802
00:56:07,136 --> 00:56:09,036
they lasted

803
00:56:09,036 --> 00:56:12,576
they didn't last as long as we have, we've been in here

804
00:56:12,576 --> 00:56:14,996
week in, week out, not month in and month out

805
00:56:14,996 --> 00:56:16,296
so it is a bit

806
00:56:16,296 --> 00:56:17,876
Ben

807
00:56:17,876 --> 00:56:19,656
Ben and Buck

808
00:56:19,656 --> 00:56:23,076
a little disappointed, I mean I show up every week

809
00:56:23,076 --> 00:56:26,196
you guys have to show up once a month and talk about what's happening on the mailing list.

810
00:56:26,396 --> 00:56:26,756
I'm kidding.

811
00:56:28,036 --> 00:56:29,116
But yeah.

812
00:56:29,956 --> 00:56:32,076
And then we're being honest here too.

813
00:56:32,796 --> 00:56:37,216
I think Twitter sentiment and if you ask anybody, they would agree.

814
00:56:38,016 --> 00:56:41,276
Outside of this quantum stuff, it's been invigorating this week.

815
00:56:41,356 --> 00:56:43,556
You said it's good FUD because it's exciting at least.

816
00:56:43,716 --> 00:56:45,756
But things have been a bit stale if we're being honest.

817
00:56:45,756 --> 00:56:54,976
yeah i mean i uh look meetups are hard i'm not going to fault anyone for stopping to do it but

818
00:56:54,976 --> 00:57:01,836
it's definitely end of an era and uh something that i did not expect to see i was kind of like

819
00:57:01,836 --> 00:57:08,796
a two-month hiatus no bro that's even worse if if if this hiatus like i don't don't gaslight us

820
00:57:08,796 --> 00:57:15,536
about a hiatus like either end it or don't i don't there's nothing more permanent than a

821
00:57:15,536 --> 00:57:17,096
temporary solution.

822
00:57:19,036 --> 00:57:19,436
Hopefully

823
00:57:19,436 --> 00:57:21,736
I'm wrong on that. Hopefully it comes back.

824
00:57:21,736 --> 00:57:22,516
You know what's going to happen?

825
00:57:25,116 --> 00:57:25,796
Justin Moon

826
00:57:25,796 --> 00:57:26,976
is going to be sitting in Austin

827
00:57:26,976 --> 00:57:29,016
at some point in the next two weeks.

828
00:57:29,236 --> 00:57:31,316
He's just going to have an epiphany. He's going to be like, no.

829
00:57:31,456 --> 00:57:32,956
This can't happen. He's going to be like,

830
00:57:33,696 --> 00:57:35,276
revert the announcement.

831
00:57:35,556 --> 00:57:37,296
I'm going to host an Austin BetDevs tonight.

832
00:57:37,416 --> 00:57:37,856
Get there.

833
00:57:39,076 --> 00:57:41,256
I think that's the hope.

834
00:57:41,256 --> 00:57:43,316
It would be great to see.

835
00:57:45,536 --> 00:57:48,756
But yeah, I don't know.

836
00:57:48,836 --> 00:57:54,056
I think it's a, first of all, end of an era.

837
00:57:54,616 --> 00:58:02,096
I'm not going to give them shit about ending it or temporarily hiating it, whatever the verb is.

838
00:58:02,096 --> 00:58:12,836
But it is definitely another data point on what I've seen, which is decent developer burnout in Bitcoin.

839
00:58:12,836 --> 00:58:20,956
and I think it used to be consensus among

840
00:58:20,956 --> 00:58:26,036
at least most of the active community members

841
00:58:26,036 --> 00:58:32,356
that open source developers that are building the shit we rely on

842
00:58:32,356 --> 00:58:33,176
need to be supported

843
00:58:33,176 --> 00:58:35,736
and that it's mostly thankless work

844
00:58:35,736 --> 00:58:38,576
and that has definitely turned

845
00:58:38,576 --> 00:58:42,516
you're like working on Bitcoin

846
00:58:42,516 --> 00:58:47,956
you could be making like $300,000 working on AI or something with like way less responsibility.

847
00:58:49,236 --> 00:58:56,116
And you're just getting shit on all day. It's just a really, it's hard out there for them.

848
00:58:56,116 --> 00:59:02,436
It is hard. So I respect that. The grind is long. Life is short, the grind is long.

849
00:59:03,076 --> 00:59:08,516
We'll get through it. We'll get through it. Have fun with your AI. Go have fun with your AI, Ben.

850
00:59:08,516 --> 00:59:13,336
All right, we got some zaps to read.

851
00:59:13,536 --> 00:59:14,396
They're building up.

852
00:59:16,136 --> 00:59:16,896
We got Mav21.

853
00:59:17,236 --> 00:59:20,636
First time he's including a message in his 21,000 sat zap.

854
00:59:20,776 --> 00:59:21,396
Happy Easter.

855
00:59:21,496 --> 00:59:22,956
Happy Easter to you too, sir.

856
00:59:23,936 --> 00:59:26,256
Seth, Zoomer Seth, 21,000 sats.

857
00:59:26,436 --> 00:59:28,396
It's Seth from Satoshi Ravioli.

858
00:59:28,956 --> 00:59:31,416
Been looking forward to today for a while now, LOL.

859
00:59:33,476 --> 00:59:35,656
My third annual listen to RHR

860
00:59:35,656 --> 00:59:37,576
and prep the tax return live day.

861
00:59:38,056 --> 00:59:40,536
I'm a few weeks behind, so nice to hear you guys live.

862
00:59:40,956 --> 00:59:44,296
Let's run back the Zoomer series with Zach Cohen and I after April 15th.

863
00:59:45,716 --> 00:59:46,156
Down.

864
00:59:46,156 --> 00:59:48,596
You're just inviting yourself on the show, Seth.

865
00:59:49,116 --> 00:59:49,896
You're welcome.

866
00:59:50,556 --> 00:59:53,936
You're only welcome if we get the tax documents like ASAP.

867
00:59:54,236 --> 00:59:56,456
My personal accountant has been waiting on it.

868
00:59:57,016 --> 00:59:59,036
Seth, you can just file my extension now.

869
01:00:01,216 --> 01:00:06,156
The Satoshi Ravioli story, by the way, someone tagged me on Noster and was like,

870
01:00:06,156 --> 01:00:08,816
Who's the accounting firm that Odell keeps mentioning?

871
01:00:08,916 --> 01:00:09,936
Satoshi Ravioli?

872
01:00:10,736 --> 01:00:13,156
Their actual name is Satoshi Pacioli.

873
01:00:13,696 --> 01:00:20,636
Pacioli, an homage to the discoverer of double-entry accounting there.

874
01:00:21,116 --> 01:00:23,316
Did you catch the MAP21, Zap?

875
01:00:24,256 --> 01:00:25,096
Did you say that already?

876
01:00:25,236 --> 01:00:25,736
Did I mess up?

877
01:00:25,916 --> 01:00:26,756
Happy Easter, Freaks.

878
01:00:27,816 --> 01:00:30,356
That's our non-clickbait headline for the week.

879
01:00:32,056 --> 01:00:34,956
All cost, Zap, 21,000 sats.

880
01:00:34,956 --> 01:00:37,876
I walk the ends of an empire's coast

881
01:00:37,876 --> 01:00:38,976
with a bolt of lightning

882
01:00:38,976 --> 01:00:40,536
in orange lifeboat.

883
01:00:41,016 --> 01:00:41,356
Nice.

884
01:00:41,576 --> 01:00:42,116
Is that a haiku?

885
01:00:42,576 --> 01:00:43,556
No, that's not a haiku.

886
01:00:44,416 --> 01:00:45,736
It's a short little poem.

887
01:00:49,036 --> 01:00:49,476
Jarvichu.

888
01:00:50,176 --> 01:00:51,556
Only give us a thousand sats.

889
01:00:51,616 --> 01:00:52,356
We're not going to read that.

890
01:00:52,896 --> 01:00:53,656
Make no mistakes.

891
01:00:53,836 --> 01:00:55,196
Thank you for your support.

892
01:00:56,216 --> 01:00:57,816
25,000 sats zap.

893
01:00:58,196 --> 01:00:59,516
The IRS sent us a subpoena

894
01:00:59,516 --> 01:01:01,156
because we tried to use code RHR

895
01:01:01,156 --> 01:01:02,576
in our business taxes this year.

896
01:01:02,576 --> 01:01:08,576
At least we can use card RHR for $50 off at www.maknomistakes.shop.

897
01:01:11,836 --> 01:01:12,596
It's a good joke.

898
01:01:13,236 --> 01:01:14,976
This guy's trying to pump his own things.

899
01:01:15,096 --> 01:01:17,816
Use the code RHR to get 10% off your income tax this year.

900
01:01:18,916 --> 01:01:19,436
The IRS.

901
01:01:20,856 --> 01:01:24,616
If your IRS agent subpoenas you, just say, hey, I'd go to RHR.

902
01:01:25,176 --> 01:01:26,456
And they'll say, oh, oh, okay.

903
01:01:27,016 --> 01:01:27,676
Okay, I'm sorry.

904
01:01:27,976 --> 01:01:28,276
You're good.

905
01:01:28,476 --> 01:01:29,436
Just be very confident.

906
01:01:31,436 --> 01:01:32,356
Soap miner.

907
01:01:32,576 --> 01:01:34,356
Soap minor, I need to put in an order.

908
01:01:34,696 --> 01:01:35,676
I'm almost out of your soap.

909
01:01:36,176 --> 01:01:37,976
The deodorant, by the way, I've been loving it.

910
01:01:38,376 --> 01:01:39,456
One point of feedback.

911
01:01:39,716 --> 01:01:44,436
If you wear a white shirt, it gets a little yellow when you're wearing your deodorant.

912
01:01:44,516 --> 01:01:45,716
I just want to let you know that.

913
01:01:46,156 --> 01:01:48,156
33,333 sats.

914
01:01:48,976 --> 01:01:50,536
Just use code RHR for everything.

915
01:01:50,696 --> 01:01:51,236
Thank me later.

916
01:01:52,456 --> 01:01:52,896
Love it.

917
01:01:53,036 --> 01:01:53,576
Great advice.

918
01:01:53,696 --> 01:01:55,236
Thank you for your support and for your soap.

919
01:01:58,236 --> 01:02:00,196
Long John Silver.

920
01:02:00,196 --> 01:02:01,476
I can't see the full name here.

921
01:02:02,576 --> 01:02:04,236
How come I can't make this side panel there?

922
01:02:04,236 --> 01:02:04,616
Can I?

923
01:02:07,196 --> 01:02:08,316
21,000 stats.

924
01:02:08,396 --> 01:02:10,276
Use code RHR to stock up on beef.

925
01:02:12,196 --> 01:02:13,616
On beef snack sticks.

926
01:02:13,736 --> 01:02:14,836
Way better than Chomps Marty.

927
01:02:15,596 --> 01:02:16,696
Okay, it's Long John's Creek.

928
01:02:17,156 --> 01:02:19,076
Go to longjohnscreek.com.

929
01:02:19,836 --> 01:02:20,536
Code RHR.

930
01:02:22,156 --> 01:02:23,716
No idea how much you get off there.

931
01:02:24,356 --> 01:02:35,274
Our boy Vake Long time OG freak 21 stats Quantum computing timelines obey their own uncertainty principle the more precisely you predict when it arrive

932
01:02:35,274 --> 01:02:36,034
the less accurate

933
01:02:36,034 --> 01:02:36,614
you are

934
01:02:36,614 --> 01:02:37,914
about whether

935
01:02:37,914 --> 01:02:38,874
it actually exists

936
01:02:38,874 --> 01:02:40,734
I like that

937
01:02:40,734 --> 01:02:42,434
good advice

938
01:02:42,434 --> 01:02:43,374
thank you for your support

939
01:02:43,374 --> 01:02:46,434
Jonas Nick

940
01:02:46,434 --> 01:02:47,594
said this to me

941
01:02:47,594 --> 01:02:48,334
when I had him

942
01:02:48,334 --> 01:02:48,914
on the show

943
01:02:48,914 --> 01:02:51,274
because there's people

944
01:02:51,274 --> 01:02:51,654
out there like

945
01:02:51,654 --> 01:02:52,514
Bob McElrath

946
01:02:52,514 --> 01:02:53,254
weird encode

947
01:02:53,254 --> 01:02:54,154
like he's convinced

948
01:02:54,154 --> 01:02:54,934
like he's like

949
01:02:54,994 --> 01:02:58,834
pretty convinced like i don't think it's going to happen ever but we should prepare for it we should

950
01:02:58,834 --> 01:03:04,074
be i think the most important thing doesn't reardon doesn't think it's going to happen right

951
01:03:04,074 --> 01:03:09,594
not in the next century but he said like even if you like i don't think it's going to happen but

952
01:03:09,594 --> 01:03:13,974
i'm staying up to date on this because we know ecdsa is going to be broken at some point in the

953
01:03:13,974 --> 01:03:18,694
future whether or not it's a quantum computer that actually breaks ecdsa is another question

954
01:03:18,694 --> 01:03:24,694
but we can have a high degree of certainty that at some point whether it's a quantum computer

955
01:03:24,694 --> 01:03:27,574
or just a regular computer, a supercomputer.

956
01:03:27,954 --> 01:03:29,414
Like ECDSA is going to break,

957
01:03:29,494 --> 01:03:33,494
so we need to be upgrading these signature algorithms anyway.

958
01:03:33,854 --> 01:03:38,174
And it just so happens that a lot of the leading signature algorithms

959
01:03:38,174 --> 01:03:42,094
that will likely upgrade to happen to be quantum resistant as well.

960
01:03:44,234 --> 01:03:47,914
Brandon's also convinced that Elon is Satoshi.

961
01:03:48,674 --> 01:03:49,734
Is he really?

962
01:03:51,334 --> 01:03:52,774
I didn't know that.

963
01:03:52,834 --> 01:03:54,414
Seriously, very convinced.

964
01:03:54,694 --> 01:03:56,834
I've had a big back and forth with him on that.

965
01:03:57,474 --> 01:03:59,614
How many people are convinced that Elon Satoshi?

966
01:04:00,354 --> 01:04:02,614
I don't know, but can Elon do something about it then

967
01:04:02,614 --> 01:04:03,694
so that we don't have to?

968
01:04:04,434 --> 01:04:05,974
Hey, he animated a GIF.

969
01:04:10,854 --> 01:04:14,654
Elon, opensats.org slash donate.

970
01:04:15,334 --> 01:04:16,594
Love your support.

971
01:04:17,134 --> 01:04:18,574
We take no cut of donations.

972
01:04:19,674 --> 01:04:22,454
100% of contributions go to open source contributors.

973
01:04:22,454 --> 01:04:29,134
all those apps by the way freaks if you're new here we're through our nostre live chat where the

974
01:04:29,134 --> 01:04:35,154
ride or die freaks dwell uh you can access it by downloading primal in your favorite app store

975
01:04:35,154 --> 01:04:42,074
we're going to primal.net favorite web browser uh zaps zap stream supports it a bunch of

976
01:04:42,074 --> 01:04:48,854
nostre apps supported including nostre amethyst um but the new one which is on the list is wisp

977
01:04:48,854 --> 01:04:55,094
by our boy UTXO, a great new Android master app.

978
01:04:55,434 --> 01:05:00,574
And this is the first RHR where you can participate in the live stream using WISP,

979
01:05:00,794 --> 01:05:01,994
which is awesome to see.

980
01:05:02,714 --> 01:05:03,794
Absolutely love to see it.

981
01:05:03,994 --> 01:05:05,174
Open protocols for the win.

982
01:05:05,934 --> 01:05:07,834
Shout out to you, UTXO.

983
01:05:09,214 --> 01:05:12,534
And shout out to the Financial Freedom Report newsletter.

984
01:05:14,034 --> 01:05:16,674
We go to financialfreedomreport.org to sign up for that.

985
01:05:16,674 --> 01:05:20,594
in the story of the week coming from that newsletter is out of Russia, where record

986
01:05:20,594 --> 01:05:24,854
bank withdrawals are happening as surveillance and account freezes surge.

987
01:05:24,974 --> 01:05:28,514
Russia, I can't read today. Russian residents withdrew over

988
01:05:28,514 --> 01:05:32,254
1.6 trillion rubles, the equivalent of $19.7 billion

989
01:05:32,254 --> 01:05:36,454
from banks in January, mainly due to declining trust in the

990
01:05:36,454 --> 01:05:38,954
state-controlled financial system.

991
01:05:39,954 --> 01:05:44,574
In the state-controlled financial system. This exodus follows a significant change in banking

992
01:05:44,574 --> 01:05:49,154
oversight of the central bank doubled the number of suspicious activity indicators with digital

993
01:05:49,154 --> 01:05:54,714
signals that automatically trigger account freezes. Allegedly aimed at preventing fraud,

994
01:05:54,914 --> 01:06:00,674
these new criteria temporarily blocked as many as 3 million bank accounts and cards in early January.

995
01:06:01,054 --> 01:06:06,034
To tighten its grip, the Interior Ministry proposed capping cash withdrawals at 50,000 rubles or

996
01:06:06,034 --> 01:06:13,294
$615 for flagged accounts, while a $10,000 lifetime limit on foreign currency withdrawals

997
01:06:13,294 --> 01:06:15,634
was recently extended through September 9th.

998
01:06:16,074 --> 01:06:18,354
All these regulations reinforce the digital limitations

999
01:06:18,354 --> 01:06:21,414
on Russian savers, making physical cash

1000
01:06:21,414 --> 01:06:23,034
one of their few remaining protections

1001
01:06:23,034 --> 01:06:24,514
against state overreach.

1002
01:06:24,994 --> 01:06:26,634
For more stories like this and others,

1003
01:06:26,734 --> 01:06:28,834
go to financialfreedomreport.org.

1004
01:06:30,194 --> 01:06:30,834
It's it.

1005
01:06:32,134 --> 01:06:33,194
Financial repression.

1006
01:06:34,854 --> 01:06:36,674
The main reason I picked this one

1007
01:06:36,674 --> 01:06:38,874
to highlight this week is because, freaks,

1008
01:06:39,014 --> 01:06:40,014
the bank runs continue.

1009
01:06:40,854 --> 01:06:41,454
Yes, they do.

1010
01:06:41,454 --> 01:06:45,654
So I'm not sure if you saw it out of Germany, what they're doing with their coinage there.

1011
01:06:47,534 --> 01:06:48,354
Did you see that?

1012
01:06:49,094 --> 01:06:49,394
No.

1013
01:06:49,494 --> 01:06:52,314
What are they doing with their coinage in Germany?

1014
01:06:53,134 --> 01:06:56,494
I think it's 10 and 20 euro coins that they have.

1015
01:06:56,494 --> 01:06:58,874
They actually have real silver in it.

1016
01:06:59,674 --> 01:07:02,754
And they're reducing the silver content by 46%.

1017
01:07:02,754 --> 01:07:03,914
Wow.

1018
01:07:04,114 --> 01:07:04,754
What a scam.

1019
01:07:05,734 --> 01:07:05,874
Yeah.

1020
01:07:08,414 --> 01:07:09,314
True debasement.

1021
01:07:09,454 --> 01:07:10,914
Actual currency debasement there.

1022
01:07:10,914 --> 01:07:19,214
physical debasement old school and they're going after the coins um on primal on the video which

1023
01:07:19,214 --> 01:07:25,154
you can get after a couple hours after we record i post the video to nostor i have to like

1024
01:07:25,154 --> 01:07:34,674
download it and compress it and re-upload it uh is 21 000 sats um from our boy roaming

1025
01:07:34,674 --> 01:07:36,954
he did asteroid emoji

1026
01:07:36,954 --> 01:07:38,574
alien emoji

1027
01:07:38,574 --> 01:07:39,934
guy's very consistent

1028
01:07:39,934 --> 01:07:41,894
thank you sir

1029
01:07:41,894 --> 01:07:44,634
talk about it last week the theory

1030
01:07:44,634 --> 01:07:46,014
of all the

1031
01:07:46,014 --> 01:07:49,454
we did talk about it last week

1032
01:07:49,454 --> 01:07:51,354
didn't we it was part of our high signal

1033
01:07:51,354 --> 01:07:53,374
portion but did we get the theory

1034
01:07:53,374 --> 01:07:54,574
in that there's like a

1035
01:07:54,574 --> 01:07:56,614
a

1036
01:07:56,614 --> 01:07:59,494
discrete satellite war going on

1037
01:07:59,494 --> 01:08:01,014
just like Russia China

1038
01:08:01,014 --> 01:08:02,434
that's a new one

1039
01:08:02,434 --> 01:08:05,234
just sending each other's satellites out of space.

1040
01:08:06,954 --> 01:08:08,114
I mean, what about Elon?

1041
01:08:08,214 --> 01:08:09,874
Elon has over half the satellites.

1042
01:08:11,754 --> 01:08:17,074
He's got like 8,000 satellites in space out of a total of like 14,000.

1043
01:08:17,594 --> 01:08:18,994
I don't know how Starlink been.

1044
01:08:19,254 --> 01:08:21,494
Has anybody experienced some disruption in service?

1045
01:08:21,494 --> 01:08:22,254
I'm on Starlink.

1046
01:08:22,514 --> 01:08:22,914
It's great.

1047
01:08:23,934 --> 01:08:24,414
Fantastic.

1048
01:08:24,414 --> 01:08:27,454
There might be a covert satellite war going on out there.

1049
01:08:28,114 --> 01:08:28,974
I'm sorry to hear my children.

1050
01:08:29,194 --> 01:08:30,014
I didn't know that right now.

1051
01:08:30,014 --> 01:08:36,054
this stream is brought to you by starlink i couldn't couldn't do it otherwise use code rhr

1052
01:08:36,054 --> 01:08:45,154
for 15 off what if starlink bought us would would you i'd be down to i'd sell to starlink

1053
01:08:45,154 --> 01:08:54,614
there's worse there's worse suitors for all we just get spacex equity bro i'm tired i'm tired

1054
01:08:54,614 --> 01:09:00,614
we're perpetually tired now i think starlink is um

1055
01:09:01,434 --> 01:09:07,974
starlink is probably one of the single coolest pieces of tech that has been released ever

1056
01:09:07,974 --> 01:09:12,674
i guess wild that it exists and it works as well as it does

1057
01:09:12,674 --> 01:09:21,894
yeah and like not just the home piece the the mobile one is wild like the

1058
01:09:21,894 --> 01:09:30,334
it's got the wi-fi router built into the dish um and you can just power it from a battery pack

1059
01:09:30,334 --> 01:09:36,394
you just have high speed internet wherever the fuck you are in the world is wild it's like some

1060
01:09:36,394 --> 01:09:41,674
science fiction shit i've been doing research on the tesla home battery packs like the solar

1061
01:09:41,674 --> 01:09:50,354
system and you get a generac and you get some solar panels and a tesla home yeah

1062
01:09:50,354 --> 01:09:53,274
I'm more of a generator guy.

1063
01:09:53,474 --> 01:09:56,794
I haven't done the solar and the batteries.

1064
01:09:57,954 --> 01:10:14,354
But I mean, I do think in general people should be thinking about their power situation and their water situation and your food situation and have redundancies.

1065
01:10:14,354 --> 01:10:23,394
tendencies uh because i feel like the supply shortages are accelerating across the board

1066
01:10:23,394 --> 01:10:34,114
chaotic times we live in yeah i am the top boost from last week

1067
01:10:34,114 --> 01:10:43,614
podcasting 2.0 apps was a pringle mac with 88 888 sets palindrome boost i can't believe we spent

1068
01:10:43,614 --> 01:10:45,534
the last two days visiting Bitcoin Park.

1069
01:10:45,674 --> 01:10:46,434
You freaks rock.

1070
01:10:46,894 --> 01:10:49,774
So much generosity and spirit in this building and beyond.

1071
01:10:50,614 --> 01:10:53,654
I will see you IRL before we leave, Matt,

1072
01:10:53,714 --> 01:10:55,374
and we will head to Philly at some point

1073
01:10:55,374 --> 01:10:56,354
if you are around, Marty.

1074
01:10:56,554 --> 01:11:01,054
Otherwise, see you at Thames,

1075
01:11:01,794 --> 01:11:03,314
Texas Energy and Mining Summit,

1076
01:11:03,774 --> 01:11:04,834
Bitcoin Park, Austin.

1077
01:11:05,614 --> 01:11:07,814
Pringle Mac, thank you for making the pilgrimage.

1078
01:11:08,954 --> 01:11:11,054
I am traveling with family,

1079
01:11:11,054 --> 01:11:13,114
so I apologize that I am not there.

1080
01:11:13,614 --> 01:11:19,574
But it seems from your Nostra post that you are thoroughly enjoying the best of Nashville.

1081
01:11:20,474 --> 01:11:22,194
So I love to see it.

1082
01:11:22,714 --> 01:11:26,594
We have Stimmy 40 hours per week with 30,000.

1083
01:11:27,154 --> 01:11:29,074
Three sats, palindrome, boost.

1084
01:11:29,374 --> 01:11:34,074
Shout out to Bitcoin Park and all the meetup organizers for sharing incredibly high signal at Grassroots Bitcoin.

1085
01:11:34,954 --> 01:11:36,334
This is how we win.

1086
01:11:37,194 --> 01:11:38,734
Hitting the gas in every locale.

1087
01:11:38,734 --> 01:11:42,654
Special props to Foise and all the freaks building in their communities.

1088
01:11:42,654 --> 01:11:49,254
love to see it and then we have ride or die freak eric nine nine with 21 000 sats thank you for all

1089
01:11:49,254 --> 01:11:55,234
the hard work you put in thank you sir thank you guys for going back make your way up to philly

1090
01:11:55,234 --> 01:12:04,894
side note all the parents out there um kids do have tablets but they're not allowed to use them

1091
01:12:04,894 --> 01:12:10,934
unless we go on like a really long plane ride or car ride that's when we'll pull it out um

1092
01:12:10,934 --> 01:12:15,354
downloaded synthesis tutor for the oldest to do math tutoring.

1093
01:12:17,254 --> 01:12:20,354
Probably the best education investment we've made.

1094
01:12:20,494 --> 01:12:21,714
He's been playing with it for two days.

1095
01:12:21,814 --> 01:12:23,734
He's already on like advanced fractions.

1096
01:12:27,034 --> 01:12:27,934
Is it paid app?

1097
01:12:28,914 --> 01:12:29,834
It's a paid app.

1098
01:12:30,194 --> 01:12:32,014
It's like $129 for the year.

1099
01:12:32,894 --> 01:12:35,234
But you can use code RHR for 15% off.

1100
01:12:35,334 --> 01:12:35,774
Yeah.

1101
01:12:36,114 --> 01:12:37,474
You can get it to $100.

1102
01:12:37,474 --> 01:12:41,354
You get 35% off if you use code RHR.

1103
01:12:41,894 --> 01:12:48,254
And it goes all the way to trigonometry and stuff like that.

1104
01:12:48,394 --> 01:12:51,934
It starts with the basics and moves up.

1105
01:12:52,034 --> 01:12:53,414
He started on subtraction yesterday.

1106
01:12:53,614 --> 01:12:54,474
He's already on fractions.

1107
01:12:55,534 --> 01:13:02,494
I mean, it's a perfect example of like, it's such a, you know,

1108
01:13:02,494 --> 01:13:11,174
screens and technology can be massive negatives to children and then also can be massive

1109
01:13:11,174 --> 01:13:15,514
tools for empowerment for both parents and children.

1110
01:13:16,794 --> 01:13:19,334
And you just have to find like a balancing act.

1111
01:13:19,334 --> 01:13:26,734
I mean, specifically for those of us who want to homeschool, you know, the internet and

1112
01:13:26,734 --> 01:13:31,774
tech makes it so much more, uh, effective.

1113
01:13:32,554 --> 01:13:34,354
Um, but it's a balancing act for sure.

1114
01:13:35,434 --> 01:13:35,934
It is.

1115
01:13:36,054 --> 01:13:36,254
Yeah.

1116
01:13:36,254 --> 01:13:38,294
We get to it in the last year cause it's spring break.

1117
01:13:38,294 --> 01:13:43,114
So we're like trying to figure out ways to, and we're in, we're not,

1118
01:13:43,134 --> 01:13:44,374
obviously we're not on vacation.

1119
01:13:44,374 --> 01:13:48,574
So it's like, it's just us and the kids and a lot of the other kids are on

1120
01:13:48,694 --> 01:13:49,294
vacation.

1121
01:13:49,294 --> 01:13:51,574
So nice buck 52,000.

1122
01:13:51,574 --> 01:13:52,854
I got my kid a chainsaw.

1123
01:13:53,314 --> 01:13:53,734
Love it.

1124
01:13:53,734 --> 01:13:54,934
Use code RHR.

1125
01:13:55,854 --> 01:13:58,754
We got a brand new chainsaw.

1126
01:13:59,414 --> 01:14:00,754
We got a chainsaw at our new house.

1127
01:14:00,914 --> 01:14:02,474
They left us two chainsaws.

1128
01:14:02,834 --> 01:14:03,314
We got a...

1129
01:14:03,314 --> 01:14:04,154
What brand?

1130
01:14:07,074 --> 01:14:08,034
Dahl, I think.

1131
01:14:09,214 --> 01:14:09,654
Steel?

1132
01:14:09,954 --> 01:14:11,094
S-T-I-H-L?

1133
01:14:11,914 --> 01:14:13,274
I thought it was D-A-H-L.

1134
01:14:14,034 --> 01:14:15,794
Dahl is an artist, isn't he?

1135
01:14:18,934 --> 01:14:20,214
Is it Dahl or Wall?

1136
01:14:20,854 --> 01:14:22,254
I mean, I don't know if I pronounced it right,

1137
01:14:22,254 --> 01:14:23,414
but Steel's my favorite.

1138
01:14:23,734 --> 01:14:25,874
S-T-I-H-L.

1139
01:14:28,434 --> 01:14:35,034
And I will say, I have a gas-powered steel and an electric-powered steel,

1140
01:14:35,094 --> 01:14:38,234
and the electric one gets a lot of shit from people

1141
01:14:38,234 --> 01:14:40,734
because they just assume the worst, but it is so fucking convenient.

1142
01:14:40,914 --> 01:14:41,494
It's great.

1143
01:14:42,154 --> 01:14:42,934
Highly recommend.

1144
01:14:45,034 --> 01:14:45,754
It is.

1145
01:14:45,854 --> 01:14:47,954
Just press a fucking button, and it goes.

1146
01:14:51,174 --> 01:14:52,614
All right, we've got big news.

1147
01:14:53,734 --> 01:15:01,654
in the software update section start os version 0.4.0 beta has been released it's a major reway

1148
01:15:03,014 --> 01:15:07,094
overhaul long awaited they waited until april 1st

1149
01:15:07,894 --> 01:15:16,134
2026 to officially push it to confuse the masses is it here is it not we'll have to wait today to

1150
01:15:16,134 --> 01:15:21,354
find out a day has passed and the GitHub page is still up.

1151
01:15:22,674 --> 01:15:24,594
This has been a long awaited.

1152
01:15:24,874 --> 01:15:31,794
Matt and I have been very close to the Start9 team as they've been building this out and

1153
01:15:31,794 --> 01:15:35,394
pumped to see that it's finally in the wild.

1154
01:15:37,194 --> 01:15:40,134
Yeah, we're the largest investor in Start9 proudly.

1155
01:15:42,834 --> 01:15:44,674
I love that company.

1156
01:15:45,634 --> 01:15:46,894
Their team is great.

1157
01:15:47,094 --> 01:15:53,634
I think it's a great example of how to build an open source focused business.

1158
01:15:54,734 --> 01:15:56,514
It's fully MIT licensed.

1159
01:15:56,694 --> 01:15:58,254
You can do anything you want with the code.

1160
01:15:58,554 --> 01:16:00,214
You can run it yourself on your own hardware.

1161
01:16:01,314 --> 01:16:05,294
Or you can go and buy pre-built hardware from them at start9.com.

1162
01:16:05,534 --> 01:16:06,654
I think it's start9.com.

1163
01:16:06,654 --> 01:16:08,994
By the way, I see pseudo-Carlos.

1164
01:16:10,874 --> 01:16:13,994
Roald Dahl is an author, not an artist.

1165
01:16:14,674 --> 01:16:21,214
He actually was blowing up on Twitter this week because apparently it was very base.

1166
01:16:21,434 --> 01:16:24,954
His first date with his wife, he ended it by saying, I'd rather be dead than fat.

1167
01:16:25,694 --> 01:16:27,034
We have to talk to Matt Hill.

1168
01:16:27,114 --> 01:16:28,754
We need to get an RHR discount code.

1169
01:16:28,834 --> 01:16:39,894
But anyway, 040 has been a massive undertaking, complete redesign and rewrite of a bunch of the core stuff there.

1170
01:16:40,554 --> 01:16:44,454
And also on the AI topic, it has open-class support.

1171
01:16:44,674 --> 01:16:48,474
Um, so I'm excited to give it to give it a spin.

1172
01:16:48,814 --> 01:16:49,994
I don't know.

1173
01:16:50,094 --> 01:16:55,054
I have to check with Matt if they're going to provide a more graceful update path.

1174
01:16:55,054 --> 01:16:59,374
But right now you basically have to reflash, uh, the OS.

1175
01:16:59,494 --> 01:17:01,474
You have to like put it on a USB drive.

1176
01:17:01,614 --> 01:17:02,934
It's relatively straightforward.

1177
01:17:03,294 --> 01:17:05,354
The hardest part is having a USB drive.

1178
01:17:06,614 --> 01:17:12,534
Um, I feel like I have like 45 USB drives, but I can't find one right now.

1179
01:17:12,534 --> 01:17:15,414
but I'm looking forward to update.

1180
01:17:17,354 --> 01:17:17,814
So am I.

1181
01:17:19,094 --> 01:17:20,214
Shout out to the team.

1182
01:17:20,554 --> 01:17:21,194
I know you guys have

1183
01:17:21,194 --> 01:17:23,834
I know people have been banging down the door

1184
01:17:23,834 --> 01:17:26,794
and asking when 040, when 040.

1185
01:17:27,454 --> 01:17:28,274
It's finally here.

1186
01:17:29,494 --> 01:17:30,434
You got there.

1187
01:17:32,054 --> 01:17:34,274
Next up on the software update section

1188
01:17:34,274 --> 01:17:36,734
Frigate version 1.4.0

1189
01:17:36,734 --> 01:17:39,114
has been released.

1190
01:17:42,534 --> 01:17:45,234
silent payments is not just a new approach.

1191
01:17:45,574 --> 01:17:50,834
So this is from Craig Rall and the Sparrow team.

1192
01:17:51,454 --> 01:17:53,214
He's been really working on silent payments.

1193
01:17:53,214 --> 01:17:53,554
Sparrow team.

1194
01:17:53,754 --> 01:17:55,194
It's just fucking Craig, bro.

1195
01:17:55,934 --> 01:17:56,514
Come on.

1196
01:17:56,594 --> 01:17:57,934
We got to keep it going.

1197
01:17:58,074 --> 01:17:59,134
We got a massive team there.

1198
01:17:59,374 --> 01:18:00,454
Build some of the best software.

1199
01:18:02,634 --> 01:18:04,414
I used your software this morning, Craig.

1200
01:18:04,474 --> 01:18:05,374
Thank you for building it.

1201
01:18:09,614 --> 01:18:10,474
What's big in the side?

1202
01:18:10,514 --> 01:18:11,614
This is like a big wall of text.

1203
01:18:11,714 --> 01:18:12,434
I can't read all this.

1204
01:18:12,534 --> 01:18:22,754
Craig, I'm sorry. So, so yeah, so Craig is most known for Sparrow, but he's been very focused on

1205
01:18:22,754 --> 01:18:28,314
silent payments. And the key with silent payments, which is awesome, is that instead of having to

1206
01:18:28,314 --> 01:18:34,574
give people a fresh address every time, you can give them just a single human readable

1207
01:18:34,574 --> 01:18:43,314
payment code. So, you know, as similar to what people see with lightning addresses, right? So

1208
01:18:43,314 --> 01:18:47,014
like, instead of giving a fresh Bitcoin address, you could just do like Odell at primal.net.

1209
01:18:48,494 --> 01:18:52,434
That is awesome from a UX point of view. It's something that we really need on OpenSats. Like

1210
01:18:52,434 --> 01:18:57,174
we're sending out, we're like, got to get 200 addresses every month from grant recipients to

1211
01:18:57,174 --> 01:19:03,774
send out the monthly payments. It'd be great if we just had a fixed payment address that we could

1212
01:19:03,774 --> 01:19:13,854
use. So as a result, it implicitly helps privacy because it removes address reuse from the equation

1213
01:19:13,854 --> 01:19:18,574
and makes it much easier to accept donations, for instance, without address reuse. You don't have

1214
01:19:18,574 --> 01:19:24,914
to run a separate server. The big negative, and also it solves the gap limit, which is something

1215
01:19:24,914 --> 01:19:31,134
that he's had significant issues with, which is in the background, Sparrow has a default that is

1216
01:19:31,134 --> 01:19:35,174
checking all your addresses that are potentially have Bitcoin in them.

1217
01:19:35,734 --> 01:19:39,814
And sometimes if you are running like a BTC pay server and a lot of people are

1218
01:19:39,814 --> 01:19:42,314
initiating a payment, but not actually sending the payment,

1219
01:19:42,414 --> 01:19:45,594
you end up with a big gap in those addresses. And then your,

1220
01:19:45,694 --> 01:19:49,094
your software that you're looking at says a balance that's lower.

1221
01:19:49,654 --> 01:19:54,194
So it helps improve that situation by just completely removing the gap limit

1222
01:19:54,194 --> 01:20:00,294
altogether. But the main trade-off and the main burden is that, uh,

1223
01:20:01,134 --> 01:20:04,414
Your software needs to be scanning constantly for new payments coming in.

1224
01:20:04,414 --> 01:20:16,674
And so he created Frigate, which is like a drop-in Electrum server type solution that has silent payment support that does all that heavy lifting with the scanning for you because no one else was doing it.

1225
01:20:17,254 --> 01:20:26,914
And it makes specifically mobile use of silent payments much more, much less friction, much easier to implement.

1226
01:20:27,894 --> 01:20:32,554
The trade-off there is similar to if you're using someone else's Electrum server.

1227
01:20:32,674 --> 01:20:35,794
So you're not running your own Bitcoin node, you're using someone else's Bitcoin node.

1228
01:20:36,234 --> 01:20:36,974
Similar situation.

1229
01:20:37,454 --> 01:20:45,334
Obviously, you could see Frigate being, you run your own Frigate on Start9 or Alboral or however you want to run it.

1230
01:20:46,874 --> 01:20:51,554
One of the cool things about Start9, by the way, that people don't realize, and I saw a confusion on the chat,

1231
01:20:52,134 --> 01:20:55,334
is they've just made it really easy for anyone to package their own apps.

1232
01:20:55,334 --> 01:20:57,394
So like they don't even want to be involved.

1233
01:20:57,654 --> 01:21:01,594
They like, you know, have like the key apps that they maintain,

1234
01:21:01,754 --> 01:21:06,494
but they want it to be an open app marketplace where like anyone can package

1235
01:21:06,494 --> 01:21:08,794
open source apps that you can easily run and self host.

1236
01:21:09,274 --> 01:21:11,254
And Frigate is a perfect option for that.

1237
01:21:12,994 --> 01:21:15,274
But yeah, I mean, it's just classic Craig.

1238
01:21:15,574 --> 01:21:19,994
I was talking to Craig at a private event a couple of months ago,

1239
01:21:20,014 --> 01:21:22,534
and he was just super excited about silent payments.

1240
01:21:23,154 --> 01:21:24,174
It was just great to see.

1241
01:21:24,174 --> 01:21:26,074
because I know when that guy gets excited about something,

1242
01:21:26,154 --> 01:21:26,874
it actually ships.

1243
01:21:28,434 --> 01:21:31,194
And Sparrow is something I rely on on a daily basis.

1244
01:21:31,434 --> 01:21:33,314
I'm so fucking grateful Sparrow is here.

1245
01:21:33,534 --> 01:21:35,094
And if Sparrow offers silent payments,

1246
01:21:35,474 --> 01:21:38,214
hopefully we'll see more support across the ecosystem.

1247
01:21:39,294 --> 01:21:40,654
That's probably the last piece

1248
01:21:40,654 --> 01:21:42,554
that's stopping silent payments right now

1249
01:21:42,554 --> 01:21:45,714
is just you need more wallets that accept them

1250
01:21:45,714 --> 01:21:48,174
and more wallets that send to them.

1251
01:21:49,034 --> 01:21:51,514
By the way, the sending side is quite easy

1252
01:21:51,514 --> 01:21:53,274
for hardware wallets like Coldcard.

1253
01:21:54,174 --> 01:21:57,774
Use code RHR for 5% or 10% off.

1254
01:21:58,054 --> 01:21:59,974
I don't think we're sure on what the discount is.

1255
01:22:00,534 --> 01:22:01,134
Biggest discount.

1256
01:22:01,134 --> 01:22:02,054
Coldcard.com.

1257
01:22:02,554 --> 01:22:03,414
There we go.

1258
01:22:03,554 --> 01:22:04,994
Coldcard.com, best hardware wallet.

1259
01:22:05,454 --> 01:22:07,434
But the receiving side is not so simple.

1260
01:22:08,234 --> 01:22:15,054
So right now, what that looks like in practice is that you are receiving to a hot wallet and then sending to cold storage afterwards.

1261
01:22:15,734 --> 01:22:17,554
The sending process is super simple.

1262
01:22:17,554 --> 01:22:26,634
The software is basically translating it into an address that is a PSPT that the hardware is signing.

1263
01:22:26,994 --> 01:22:29,694
So there's no changes that need to be made on that side.

1264
01:22:30,874 --> 01:22:40,974
We have This Isn't Me, it's some person in the YouTube chat asking, can that work for giving – essentially, could you give a silent payment address to DCA?

1265
01:22:41,954 --> 01:22:43,614
Yeah, it's perfect for that.

1266
01:22:43,614 --> 01:22:45,154
It would be perfect for that.

1267
01:22:45,154 --> 01:22:49,114
And he's asking, are there any that you can name that do that?

1268
01:22:49,114 --> 01:22:50,654
No, not right now, I don't think.

1269
01:22:50,654 --> 01:22:52,654
But, uh,

1270
01:22:52,654 --> 01:22:54,314
No, but I would love to see strike.

1271
01:22:55,394 --> 01:22:56,774
Let's just, let me put it this way.

1272
01:22:56,774 --> 01:23:03,614
There's discussions within strike on both pay join and, uh, silent payment support.

1273
01:23:03,654 --> 01:23:05,814
And I think it'd be perfect for the business.

1274
01:23:05,814 --> 01:23:09,994
And I think it's perfect for auto withdraw, which strike already offers.

1275
01:23:10,654 --> 01:23:15,014
Um, and, uh, pay join is great because you don't only

1276
01:23:15,014 --> 01:23:19,934
to get privacy improvements, but it actually reduces the cost

1277
01:23:19,992 --> 01:23:24,492
huge shout out to strike for sponsoring the show.

1278
01:23:24,592 --> 01:23:30,232
You can use code RHR when you sign up for $500 off your transaction fees.

1279
01:23:30,272 --> 01:23:32,312
And then after that, if you set up auto DCA.

1280
01:23:32,852 --> 01:23:33,612
Trading fees.

1281
01:23:34,992 --> 01:23:36,632
Yeah. Trading fees. After that,

1282
01:23:36,692 --> 01:23:39,952
you don't have to pay any trading fees because DCA fees are waived.

1283
01:23:40,492 --> 01:23:43,912
The auto stacking feature is legit.

1284
01:23:44,732 --> 01:23:47,932
I, I don't know if I'm allowed to talk about.

1285
01:23:47,932 --> 01:23:49,032
Uh, probably.

1286
01:23:50,212 --> 01:23:50,652
Um,

1287
01:23:50,752 --> 01:23:51,612
Hey, you're, you're a big,

1288
01:23:51,672 --> 01:23:53,072
Hey, you're a big ninja launcher.

1289
01:23:53,212 --> 01:23:53,432
Okay.

1290
01:23:53,432 --> 01:23:55,232
Let's just ninja launch what you're thinking right now.

1291
01:23:55,232 --> 01:23:56,472
Just tell us, tell us.

1292
01:23:56,792 --> 01:23:59,232
Um, we had our quarterly strike board meeting,

1293
01:23:59,232 --> 01:24:01,052
uh, you know,

1294
01:24:01,092 --> 01:24:04,832
1030 runs the largest investor in strike for the new freaks out there.

1295
01:24:05,752 --> 01:24:06,232
Um,

1296
01:24:06,332 --> 01:24:10,172
and there was one user that,

1297
01:24:10,172 --> 01:24:10,732
uh,

1298
01:24:10,732 --> 01:24:17,272
in the lifetime of his account has done 40,000 transactions and they need,

1299
01:24:17,272 --> 01:24:22,392
they didn't look into it further, but my, my belief for 40,000 buy,

1300
01:24:22,492 --> 01:24:23,172
sell transactions.

1301
01:24:23,172 --> 01:24:28,672
And I think the guy like literally enabled hourly DCA as soon as it was

1302
01:24:28,672 --> 01:24:30,252
live and just never turned it off.

1303
01:24:31,512 --> 01:24:33,792
Every hour just buys a little bit of Bitcoin.

1304
01:24:34,212 --> 01:24:35,992
It's like kind of fucking awesome.

1305
01:24:37,132 --> 01:24:39,332
But yeah, there's no trading fees when you do that.

1306
01:24:39,432 --> 01:24:41,452
And if you're willing to wait on withdrawals,

1307
01:24:41,472 --> 01:24:42,952
there's never any transaction fees.

1308
01:24:43,012 --> 01:24:46,392
There's always a free option for the batch transactions.

1309
01:24:47,272 --> 01:24:50,752
That's a great stat.

1310
01:24:53,952 --> 01:24:54,472
Yeah.

1311
01:24:58,752 --> 01:24:59,952
I don't think it's real, though.

1312
01:25:01,312 --> 01:25:02,812
It'd be four and a half years.

1313
01:25:06,212 --> 01:25:09,372
I mean, it's probably hourly DCA plus something else.

1314
01:25:09,372 --> 01:25:13,152
They added that early, so that might actually be like 20.

1315
01:25:14,292 --> 01:25:15,092
You have to try.

1316
01:25:15,512 --> 01:25:15,952
That's a matter.

1317
01:25:15,952 --> 01:25:18,012
I think they actually might have had that.

1318
01:25:23,272 --> 01:25:23,712
Yeah.

1319
01:25:24,912 --> 01:25:29,992
Do you see Brian Armstrong is going to start focusing on quantum computing risks to cryptocurrencies?

1320
01:25:31,732 --> 01:25:33,372
He's going to put a lot of effort into it.

1321
01:25:33,952 --> 01:25:35,812
Thank God for Brian.

1322
01:25:38,632 --> 01:25:39,512
Thank God for him.

1323
01:25:39,652 --> 01:25:41,272
Oh, it would be remiss of us.

1324
01:25:41,312 --> 01:25:41,912
It's not on the list.

1325
01:25:41,972 --> 01:25:42,692
We didn't mention it.

1326
01:25:42,692 --> 01:25:50,072
But as of Monday or Sunday, excuse me, every square terminal.

1327
01:25:52,372 --> 01:25:53,212
Oh, that's awesome.

1328
01:25:54,312 --> 01:25:56,992
I mean, there's a little bit of fine print.

1329
01:25:57,632 --> 01:26:02,812
It's for eligible sellers, and I don't know what that means, but supposedly it's in the millions.

1330
01:26:03,852 --> 01:26:05,612
But this is exactly what we wanted to see.

1331
01:26:05,692 --> 01:26:06,912
We've talked about this for a while.

1332
01:26:07,012 --> 01:26:11,192
We knew that it was a bigger undertaking than it seems like on the surface.

1333
01:26:12,692 --> 01:26:13,692
But this is the dream.

1334
01:26:13,772 --> 01:26:16,232
The dream is that if you're a square seller,

1335
01:26:17,312 --> 01:26:19,392
you don't have to talk to the person

1336
01:26:19,392 --> 01:26:23,872
that's poorly paid cashier behind the payment terminal

1337
01:26:23,872 --> 01:26:25,912
about whether or not they accept Bitcoin or not.

1338
01:26:26,272 --> 01:26:27,592
It's just on by default.

1339
01:26:28,392 --> 01:26:30,252
And the opt-in part is whether or not

1340
01:26:30,252 --> 01:26:31,972
the merchant keeps it as Bitcoin.

1341
01:26:32,232 --> 01:26:34,352
By default, the merchant converts it to dollars,

1342
01:26:34,452 --> 01:26:35,072
as it should be.

1343
01:26:35,192 --> 01:26:37,472
You shouldn't be forcing merchants

1344
01:26:37,472 --> 01:26:41,412
to accept your novel magic internet money

1345
01:26:41,412 --> 01:26:43,572
and keep it.

1346
01:26:44,212 --> 01:26:45,992
But the payment method is great.

1347
01:26:46,132 --> 01:26:48,452
And I think this is a huge step forward

1348
01:26:48,452 --> 01:26:51,832
for Bitcoin as money

1349
01:26:51,832 --> 01:26:53,532
and being able to use it on the day-to-day.

1350
01:26:53,912 --> 01:26:55,312
And I know myself personally,

1351
01:26:55,552 --> 01:26:58,172
I would 100% prefer to spend Bitcoin

1352
01:26:58,172 --> 01:27:01,692
on my family's daily expenses

1353
01:27:01,692 --> 01:27:05,232
than use fiat.

1354
01:27:07,872 --> 01:27:09,392
Any freaks in the live chat?

1355
01:27:09,772 --> 01:27:10,892
I've seen this in the wild yet.

1356
01:27:10,892 --> 01:27:11,412
Have you used it?

1357
01:27:11,512 --> 01:27:16,372
I haven't seen a Square terminal this week.

1358
01:27:19,492 --> 01:27:26,892
While you guys answer, we'll get to the last item on the list today.

1359
01:27:27,012 --> 01:27:30,312
Cypherbox version 0.0.8 has been released.

1360
01:27:30,452 --> 01:27:33,912
Progressive self-custody Bitcoin wallet on test flight powered by Strike.

1361
01:27:34,012 --> 01:27:34,712
This is really cool.

1362
01:27:36,052 --> 01:27:37,512
I thought this was awesome.

1363
01:27:38,452 --> 01:27:39,732
I don't know how involved.

1364
01:27:39,732 --> 01:27:46,232
First of all, I haven't used this app, and I don't know how involved Strike was in actually bringing this to reality.

1365
01:27:46,392 --> 01:27:49,432
I mean, Strike has a fantastic API that they might have just used on their own.

1366
01:27:52,312 --> 01:28:01,252
But to me, UX-wise, this has always kind of been the dream, is that you are able to onboard someone to an app that grows with them

1367
01:28:01,252 --> 01:28:07,132
and starts out custodial and then moves to self-custody single SIG

1368
01:28:07,132 --> 01:28:09,292
and then moves to self-custody multi-SIG.

1369
01:28:10,012 --> 01:28:13,052
And these guys seem to have put a lot of focus on UX.

1370
01:28:14,112 --> 01:28:17,372
I think it's really cool, the UTXO management view they do.

1371
01:28:18,132 --> 01:28:21,652
I don't know if you saw this, but they have like progress bars that show

1372
01:28:21,652 --> 01:28:24,252
if you might have a higher future fee burden,

1373
01:28:24,352 --> 01:28:26,332
which is a really hard thing to explain to users.

1374
01:28:26,332 --> 01:28:28,312
And I think they did it in a very graceful way.

1375
01:28:28,312 --> 01:28:33,272
You know, you don't want, for privacy's sake, you don't want all your Bitcoin in one UTXO.

1376
01:28:33,752 --> 01:28:38,292
But for cost's sake, the more UTXOs you have, the more expensive it is in the future.

1377
01:28:38,412 --> 01:28:39,912
So I thought they did a really good job with it.

1378
01:28:40,112 --> 01:28:41,392
But once again, haven't tried it.

1379
01:28:41,692 --> 01:28:42,872
Don't know who's behind it.

1380
01:28:43,992 --> 01:28:46,472
Came on my radar because of this announcement.

1381
01:28:46,932 --> 01:28:48,072
And I wanted to highlight it.

1382
01:28:49,252 --> 01:28:49,392
Yeah.

1383
01:28:51,292 --> 01:28:52,632
Yeah, it's really cool to see.

1384
01:28:53,372 --> 01:28:54,912
I'm just looking at the size of capsules.

1385
01:28:54,912 --> 01:29:04,974
what happening that all we got for the list anything uh we got to rap about here

1386
01:29:09,774 --> 01:29:18,414
oh what i forgot uh to tell somebody we were recording it too

1387
01:29:22,574 --> 01:29:26,814
okay i hope everything's all right um

1388
01:29:27,934 --> 01:29:31,174
No, I mean, I put my thoughts on the list.

1389
01:29:32,454 --> 01:29:37,354
Look, freaks, I know sentiment is down right now.

1390
01:29:37,574 --> 01:29:38,714
I know the world is chaotic.

1391
01:29:39,394 --> 01:29:41,194
Vines are high. Vines are high. Come on.

1392
01:29:41,414 --> 01:29:44,014
Dude, they canceled Austin BitTubs.

1393
01:29:47,514 --> 01:29:49,294
Don't want that marshmallow, bro.

1394
01:29:49,474 --> 01:29:50,314
Don't want that marshmallow.

1395
01:29:51,154 --> 01:29:55,174
I'm not going to call it a bottom signal,

1396
01:29:55,174 --> 01:29:56,754
but it fits the fucking bill.

1397
01:29:57,934 --> 01:30:05,494
Uh, and I just, uh, like I, it's always been a grind.

1398
01:30:05,754 --> 01:30:13,634
There's like, there's like 10 days, like every four years where you feel good about yourself

1399
01:30:13,634 --> 01:30:17,534
in terms of like Bitcoin price action and shit.

1400
01:30:18,254 --> 01:30:21,954
Um, the rest is always the shadow of the last all time high.

1401
01:30:21,954 --> 01:30:40,354
And I think this is where people that just keep stacking and staying humble enough, this is where you make your wins.

1402
01:30:41,734 --> 01:30:51,254
This is the portion of Bitcoin where when we're flying high and people say you're lucky, invalidates their perception and their bullshit.

1403
01:30:51,954 --> 01:30:57,334
Um, and it's always been that way. It will always be that way. Uh,

1404
01:30:57,654 --> 01:30:59,434
and you just gotta, you gotta grind,

1405
01:30:59,574 --> 01:31:01,494
you gotta grind through it and have a little faith.

1406
01:31:04,374 --> 01:31:08,154
Yeah. Stop being a bunch of pussies out there. It's, it's long. It's arduous.

1407
01:31:10,834 --> 01:31:14,094
Yeah. This is what you signed up for a marathon.

1408
01:31:14,314 --> 01:31:17,594
I don't know what to tell you people. I mean, this is what, uh,

1409
01:31:17,934 --> 01:31:21,934
it's like you always have those people that like pop up around all time high.

1410
01:31:21,954 --> 01:31:25,094
They're like, stacking sats is retarded.

1411
01:31:25,374 --> 01:31:27,094
You're better off doing a lump sum buy.

1412
01:31:27,274 --> 01:31:40,394
Like, here's my calculation for why if you bought a lump sum and just aped your entire savings into Bitcoin, you would do better than if you just set up auto stacking and just stacked every day or every week just without emotion.

1413
01:31:40,794 --> 01:31:41,574
It's like, yeah, okay.

1414
01:31:41,734 --> 01:31:49,954
But in reality, what happens is the best times to buy are when people are market selling and dumping Bitcoin and they're not buying Bitcoin.

1415
01:31:49,954 --> 01:31:55,814
because people are emotional beings and they don't want to buy when it's down

1416
01:31:55,814 --> 01:31:57,934
and they want to buy when it's too high.

1417
01:31:58,374 --> 01:32:01,774
And I mean, it's interesting because this cycle,

1418
01:32:01,894 --> 01:32:03,974
you had the public companies doing it.

1419
01:32:04,234 --> 01:32:06,794
And so you actually see it in real time, right?

1420
01:32:06,834 --> 01:32:08,094
Just like, okay, they bought the top

1421
01:32:08,094 --> 01:32:11,114
and then they literally just dumped at this point.

1422
01:32:17,614 --> 01:32:19,114
So life goes on.

1423
01:32:19,954 --> 01:32:21,374
Bitcoin will continue to go on.

1424
01:32:22,834 --> 01:32:23,754
It's going to get better.

1425
01:32:24,134 --> 01:32:24,814
It's going to get better.

1426
01:32:25,014 --> 01:32:26,134
We're going to win the war in Iran.

1427
01:32:27,454 --> 01:32:28,594
Oh, my God.

1428
01:32:29,314 --> 01:32:31,774
Only like two or three nukes are going to be dropped.

1429
01:32:32,574 --> 01:32:32,854
Wow.

1430
01:32:32,854 --> 01:32:33,694
We're going to be...

1431
01:32:33,694 --> 01:32:36,514
What does winning the war in Iran look like to you?

1432
01:32:36,574 --> 01:32:37,334
I have no idea.

1433
01:32:37,554 --> 01:32:38,014
I have no idea.

1434
01:32:40,154 --> 01:32:42,114
What is the objective even?

1435
01:32:43,034 --> 01:32:43,554
I don't know.

1436
01:32:44,374 --> 01:32:45,294
It's being facetious.

1437
01:32:45,974 --> 01:32:46,354
Sorry.

1438
01:32:46,914 --> 01:32:47,334
Continue.

1439
01:32:47,674 --> 01:32:47,994
Yeah.

1440
01:32:49,954 --> 01:32:56,234
I had something I was going to bring up. I forget what it was.

1441
01:32:59,234 --> 01:33:00,814
Yeah, the credit crisis is still happening.

1442
01:33:01,194 --> 01:33:02,074
Can you see Blue Owl?

1443
01:33:05,014 --> 01:33:07,174
It's bank runs by another name, right?

1444
01:33:07,174 --> 01:33:13,354
Yeah, I think they had something like 48% of their investors request,

1445
01:33:13,794 --> 01:33:18,654
or 48% of their AUM was requested for withdrawal.

1446
01:33:18,654 --> 01:33:21,654
They said, we hear you, but you're only getting 5%.

1447
01:33:22,734 --> 01:33:31,234
So yeah, bank runs, but you can't even get access to 6% of the cash.

1448
01:33:33,654 --> 01:33:39,694
Yeah, I mean, in their defense, like these private credit funds,

1449
01:33:39,814 --> 01:33:45,874
the way they generate the interest rate for their investors is by loaning it out.

1450
01:33:45,874 --> 01:33:48,634
So like a bunch of it is locked up in loans.

1451
01:33:48,654 --> 01:33:52,694
they're not necessarily being malicious here

1452
01:33:52,694 --> 01:33:57,274
no we talked about this when it dropped like the whole

1453
01:33:57,274 --> 01:34:03,594
marketing private credit private equity to retail investors is just a mismatch of

1454
01:34:03,594 --> 01:34:09,774
a strategy and a client archetype retail is notoriously finicky

1455
01:34:09,774 --> 01:34:18,634
I mean how much do you think how much money is locked up in people's buy now pay later

1456
01:34:18,634 --> 01:34:20,694
chipotle burritos and shit.

1457
01:34:21,614 --> 01:34:23,034
I'm going to get that money back.

1458
01:34:23,034 --> 01:34:24,014
And that's

1459
01:34:24,014 --> 01:34:28,654
how much

1460
01:34:28,654 --> 01:34:32,114
how big is the market for

1461
01:34:32,114 --> 01:34:52,156
Oh pseudo Carlos Good job I completely forgot opensats slash blog We just announced our seventh wave of Bitcoin grants

1462
01:34:52,356 --> 01:34:56,836
You can go to opensats.org to donate or apply.

1463
01:34:58,616 --> 01:35:00,296
Donations are appreciated,

1464
01:35:00,576 --> 01:35:03,576
particularly reoccurring donations are very appreciated.

1465
01:35:05,756 --> 01:35:10,496
We had three first-time grants in this wave and six grant renewals.

1466
01:35:10,496 --> 01:35:14,516
We first time grants joined markets and G.

1467
01:35:16,136 --> 01:35:22,056
It's pretty cool to see the development continue there.

1468
01:35:23,076 --> 01:35:24,776
Picked up by new people.

1469
01:35:25,836 --> 01:35:30,016
And they use Noster for a bunch of the coordination, which is really fucking cool.

1470
01:35:31,176 --> 01:35:34,196
We have Robit.

1471
01:35:34,196 --> 01:35:43,396
We have Spectre DIY, which is a do-it-yourself hardware wallet.

1472
01:35:43,556 --> 01:35:45,696
They've been around for fucking ever, fully open source.

1473
01:35:48,496 --> 01:35:52,956
Rawbit is a visual editor that helps people see how Bitcoin transactions are built.

1474
01:35:53,476 --> 01:35:58,816
One of the cool things that Gigi does with these releases is he has very well thought

1475
01:35:58,816 --> 01:36:05,376
app descriptions of all the projects we support with links. And none of that is he's

1476
01:36:05,376 --> 01:36:14,136
neck deep in AI, but refuses to slopify our OpenStats blog. So love to see it. And then

1477
01:36:14,136 --> 01:36:18,016
six grand renewals, Bitcoin dev launchpad, Bitcoin jungle, Bitcoin safe, BitShalla,

1478
01:36:20,736 --> 01:36:25,816
Crux, which is another DIY hardware wallet and PayJoin. PayJoin continues to be

1479
01:36:25,816 --> 01:36:29,976
one of the most impressive projects we've been funding.

1480
01:36:31,116 --> 01:36:32,416
But the grants will continue.

1481
01:36:34,556 --> 01:36:39,236
I feel very confident in saying that.

1482
01:36:40,156 --> 01:36:42,516
Not only the best project, one of the best projects to back.

1483
01:36:42,656 --> 01:36:44,676
Thank you, OpenSAT's board.

1484
01:36:46,296 --> 01:36:49,596
But one of the most important projects out there.

1485
01:36:50,496 --> 01:36:51,236
Long term.

1486
01:36:52,156 --> 01:36:53,456
I think we talked about it last week.

1487
01:36:54,276 --> 01:36:54,476
Did we?

1488
01:36:55,816 --> 01:37:05,176
what implementation it's a lightning channel closes and opens yes we did yeah um but yeah

1489
01:37:05,176 --> 01:37:14,136
opensets.org i know it's tax time you want a tax deduction for this year not not your your current

1490
01:37:14,136 --> 01:37:23,116
taxes for 2025 but for tax year 2026 you can donate and get a tax receipt or you can donate

1491
01:37:23,116 --> 01:37:25,036
anonymously and not get a tax receipt, just send

1492
01:37:25,036 --> 01:37:25,316
Bitcoin.

1493
01:37:26,696 --> 01:37:28,156
We appreciate all the support.

1494
01:37:30,136 --> 01:37:31,256
So labor of love.

1495
01:37:32,796 --> 01:37:33,136
I

1496
01:37:33,136 --> 01:37:36,356
do not make any money from it.

1497
01:37:36,656 --> 01:37:38,636
And if you think you can do it better, please

1498
01:37:38,636 --> 01:37:39,536
do it better.

1499
01:37:42,136 --> 01:37:43,196
I would love that.

1500
01:37:44,096 --> 01:37:44,636
Matt's tired.

1501
01:37:44,776 --> 01:37:46,716
He doesn't want to have to do OpenSats.

1502
01:37:46,896 --> 01:37:48,016
Somebody start a better one.

1503
01:37:49,016 --> 01:37:50,836
Let him divvy out

1504
01:37:50,836 --> 01:37:52,276
the funds that have been raised to date.

1505
01:37:52,276 --> 01:37:56,016
and go chill on a beach somewhere, please.

1506
01:37:56,016 --> 01:37:59,516
You realize we're sending out a million dollars a month right now.

1507
01:37:59,796 --> 01:38:00,416
I do.

1508
01:38:00,696 --> 01:38:01,476
In Bitcoin.

1509
01:38:02,516 --> 01:38:02,856
I do.

1510
01:38:03,776 --> 01:38:04,136
Wild.

1511
01:38:04,976 --> 01:38:05,716
It is wild.

1512
01:38:06,296 --> 01:38:08,456
Okay, around the numbers, this is pretty wild too.

1513
01:38:08,456 --> 01:38:12,836
All right, total volume for global buy now pay later transaction volume.

1514
01:38:13,096 --> 01:38:17,036
It was expected to exceed $500 billion by 2025.

1515
01:38:17,396 --> 01:38:18,476
These are stale numbers.

1516
01:38:18,896 --> 01:38:20,036
That's insane.

1517
01:38:20,036 --> 01:38:35,156
With the stress, driven by a 13.7 year-over-year gross rate revenue generation, the providers of the liquidity for these loans generated $12.5 billion in revenue in 2024.

1518
01:38:35,856 --> 01:38:45,096
Future growth, the market is expected to grow significantly, with some forecasts predicting the U.S. market size alone will reach $423 billion by 2031.

1519
01:38:45,936 --> 01:38:51,036
North America is a major hub with projected usage by 90 million Americans in 2025.

1520
01:38:52,036 --> 01:38:56,276
Asia Pacific currently accounts for the largest share at 36.42%.

1521
01:38:56,276 --> 01:38:59,556
90 million Americans.

1522
01:38:59,936 --> 01:39:01,996
That's almost one-third of the country.

1523
01:39:03,416 --> 01:39:05,536
It's more if it's just adults.

1524
01:39:06,616 --> 01:39:06,956
Oh, yeah.

1525
01:39:08,156 --> 01:39:09,956
Yeah, 50%.

1526
01:39:09,956 --> 01:39:12,276
Wild.

1527
01:39:15,096 --> 01:39:18,696
How many adults are in the US?

1528
01:39:20,196 --> 01:39:21,756
I'm just going to divide by two.

1529
01:39:23,976 --> 01:39:24,296
All right.

1530
01:39:24,716 --> 01:39:29,416
Users took an average of 6.3 loans per person from single lenders in 2023,

1531
01:39:29,616 --> 01:39:32,996
up 11% from 2012, or excuse me, 2022.

1532
01:39:33,996 --> 01:39:37,876
Average order value, the average annual buy now pay later amount per consumer

1533
01:39:37,876 --> 01:39:40,696
in 2023 was $848.

1534
01:39:40,696 --> 01:39:47,116
so nothing too crazy for us at least probably for most americans it is target demo services

1535
01:39:47,116 --> 01:39:54,616
are most popular among gen z millennials with 44 of gen z using them in 2024 common use cases

1536
01:39:54,616 --> 01:40:00,416
electronics fashion and travel are major categories with one in 10 americans using it for vacations

1537
01:40:00,416 --> 01:40:05,796
I'm sure that'll end well

1538
01:40:05,796 --> 01:40:11,456
Gen Z loading up on buy now pay later loans

1539
01:40:11,456 --> 01:40:13,136
and going to the bank and mom and dad

1540
01:40:13,136 --> 01:40:14,476
I need a bailout

1541
01:40:14,476 --> 01:40:16,156
can't pay Klarna back

1542
01:40:16,156 --> 01:40:17,176
they're knocking down my door

1543
01:40:17,176 --> 01:40:19,316
they're knocking down your door dad

1544
01:40:19,316 --> 01:40:20,256
that person at the door

1545
01:40:20,256 --> 01:40:21,396
they're from Klarna

1546
01:40:21,396 --> 01:40:22,736
they're going to need your checkbook

1547
01:40:22,736 --> 01:40:23,156
because

1548
01:40:23,156 --> 01:40:31,598
I bought a Brutus I bought some of the green gear Fucked up It is

1549
01:40:34,198 --> 01:40:36,078
We got a couple zaps to read.

1550
01:40:36,198 --> 01:40:37,298
I guess we can wrap up.

1551
01:40:39,438 --> 01:40:40,118
Prodigious.

1552
01:40:40,478 --> 01:40:42,078
21,021 sats.

1553
01:40:42,598 --> 01:40:43,358
Great posts.

1554
01:40:44,818 --> 01:40:45,098
Nice.

1555
01:40:46,138 --> 01:40:46,918
Thank you, sir.

1556
01:40:46,938 --> 01:40:47,458
All cost.

1557
01:40:47,938 --> 01:40:49,178
21,000 sats.

1558
01:40:49,318 --> 01:40:50,178
Open water Bitcoin.

1559
01:40:50,378 --> 01:40:51,118
I think it just started.

1560
01:40:51,118 --> 01:40:52,378
I mean, as we've been recording,

1561
01:40:52,378 --> 01:40:55,418
I know you've been a little bearish the last hour

1562
01:40:55,418 --> 01:40:56,658
Bitcoin's up $120 million

1563
01:40:56,658 --> 01:40:59,598
Definitionally

1564
01:40:59,598 --> 01:41:01,558
we are very far from open water Bitcoin

1565
01:41:01,558 --> 01:41:03,678
and we didn't get much of it

1566
01:41:03,678 --> 01:41:05,118
this year or this

1567
01:41:05,118 --> 01:41:07,678
cycle or whatever the fuck you want

1568
01:41:07,678 --> 01:41:09,378
to call it but it's good

1569
01:41:09,378 --> 01:41:09,618
here

1570
01:41:09,618 --> 01:41:15,198
it's a good time

1571
01:41:15,198 --> 01:41:17,518
to maybe de-lever

1572
01:41:17,518 --> 01:41:18,898
if you're levered up and

1573
01:41:18,898 --> 01:41:20,398
maybe

1574
01:41:20,398 --> 01:41:23,878
slow down your lump sum purchases

1575
01:41:23,878 --> 01:41:25,798
because we're probably near the top.

1576
01:41:26,718 --> 01:41:30,058
You cut off when the title is open water Bitcoin?

1577
01:41:31,098 --> 01:41:32,058
Yes, yes.

1578
01:41:32,298 --> 01:41:32,518
Yeah.

1579
01:41:33,018 --> 01:41:34,138
And you probably should be stacking

1580
01:41:34,138 --> 01:41:35,758
when Austin BitDevs gets canceled.

1581
01:41:41,018 --> 01:41:41,498
Yeah.

1582
01:41:41,978 --> 01:41:43,358
This is when you lump sum in.

1583
01:41:43,558 --> 01:41:45,538
When Ben and Buck say, you know what?

1584
01:41:45,558 --> 01:41:46,918
There's no money to lump sum.

1585
01:41:47,218 --> 01:41:48,418
Nobody has any money, bro.

1586
01:41:50,398 --> 01:41:53,358
Can we get buy now, pay later loans to buy Bitcoin?

1587
01:41:54,078 --> 01:41:54,658
I feel like-

1588
01:41:54,658 --> 01:41:55,698
Technically, yes.

1589
01:41:55,698 --> 01:41:56,278
Actually, you can.

1590
01:41:56,898 --> 01:41:57,838
Cash app, you can.

1591
01:41:58,378 --> 01:41:58,778
Yeah.

1592
01:41:59,358 --> 01:42:04,238
I get a notification once a week, like, you can get a $200 loan out.

1593
01:42:06,478 --> 01:42:06,958
Consulting.

1594
01:42:09,778 --> 01:42:13,918
You admitted last week that you couldn't get a credit card because you got denied.

1595
01:42:15,958 --> 01:42:16,638
It's true.

1596
01:42:17,358 --> 01:42:18,458
Just took out a jambalow.

1597
01:42:18,458 --> 01:42:26,218
the credit

1598
01:42:26,218 --> 01:42:30,218
the credit system is completely

1599
01:42:30,218 --> 01:42:34,978
like i don't know how it works like you pay off your credit card

1600
01:42:34,978 --> 01:42:38,898
sometimes your points your credit score goes down

1601
01:42:38,898 --> 01:42:45,738
you're out there buying a new house like trying to oh the credit card system is fucking retarded

1602
01:42:45,738 --> 01:42:51,418
yeah and then if you're like super responsible and you never take out any debt no one will lend to

1603
01:42:51,418 --> 01:42:56,598
you it's like those should be like the most yeah should be like the best people to lend to that's

1604
01:42:56,598 --> 01:43:00,898
been my biggest problem i've only ever had one credit card my whole life and i've like been

1605
01:43:00,898 --> 01:43:04,718
religiously paying it off and i got it like three years ago because i started flying american so

1606
01:43:04,718 --> 01:43:12,098
much it's like i might as well get the points that's one of the cool things i think uh strike

1607
01:43:12,098 --> 01:43:15,258
doesn't get enough credit for is for the Bitcoin collateralized loans.

1608
01:43:15,958 --> 01:43:20,418
There's no credit score needed because you have hard money

1609
01:43:20,418 --> 01:43:22,178
as the best collateral ever.

1610
01:43:24,258 --> 01:43:24,418
Yeah.

1611
01:43:26,458 --> 01:43:28,618
I mean, this is the way loans should work, right?

1612
01:43:28,658 --> 01:43:29,938
You should be able to...

1613
01:43:29,938 --> 01:43:32,538
I think that's how they work in the hard money world, basically.

1614
01:43:32,798 --> 01:43:34,998
And we've just been living in fiat land for so long.

1615
01:43:35,838 --> 01:43:35,998
Yeah.

1616
01:43:37,778 --> 01:43:38,838
Asset-based lending.

1617
01:43:38,838 --> 01:43:42,598
it would incentivize people to be more productive

1618
01:43:42,598 --> 01:43:44,218
to acquire assets

1619
01:43:44,218 --> 01:43:45,538
if you're thinking about that

1620
01:43:45,538 --> 01:43:47,778
what's it called

1621
01:43:47,778 --> 01:43:52,438
we can just get a credit card

1622
01:43:52,438 --> 01:43:53,018
what's that called

1623
01:43:53,018 --> 01:43:57,518
I don't know what you're asking

1624
01:43:57,518 --> 01:44:01,258
when like credit's not collateralized

1625
01:44:01,258 --> 01:44:01,658
it's just

1626
01:44:01,658 --> 01:44:03,778
uncollateralized

1627
01:44:03,778 --> 01:44:07,818
not uncollateralized is another word for it

1628
01:44:08,838 --> 01:44:12,518
I see ghost of Terry Davis.

1629
01:44:12,758 --> 01:44:14,098
Why is the interest so high

1630
01:44:14,098 --> 01:44:15,758
if it's the best collateral ever though?

1631
01:44:18,498 --> 01:44:20,878
I think it will go down over time.

1632
01:44:21,038 --> 01:44:22,498
I think it's a, first of all,

1633
01:44:22,538 --> 01:44:24,038
I think liquidity is very tight

1634
01:44:24,038 --> 01:44:26,258
as we've been talking about

1635
01:44:26,258 --> 01:44:27,578
with the private credit stuff.

1636
01:44:28,858 --> 01:44:30,518
But I think there's also,

1637
01:44:30,818 --> 01:44:33,158
there's an education mismatch, right?

1638
01:44:33,158 --> 01:44:36,238
Because the people that realize

1639
01:44:36,238 --> 01:44:38,178
that Bitcoin's the best collateral

1640
01:44:38,178 --> 01:44:45,618
would rather buy Bitcoin than lend you dollars, right?

1641
01:44:46,178 --> 01:44:48,018
And the people that are willing to lend dollars

1642
01:44:48,018 --> 01:44:49,038
instead of buying Bitcoin

1643
01:44:49,038 --> 01:44:51,118
don't think Bitcoin is the best collateral

1644
01:44:51,118 --> 01:44:52,498
because otherwise they would have bought Bitcoin.

1645
01:44:52,718 --> 01:44:54,138
So it's a little bit of a chicken and egg.

1646
01:44:55,918 --> 01:44:57,978
But I think as it becomes more common

1647
01:44:57,978 --> 01:45:02,138
and as we see more established players enter the market,

1648
01:45:03,338 --> 01:45:05,298
rates will go down.

1649
01:45:05,398 --> 01:45:07,278
And I think eventually what you will see is

1650
01:45:07,278 --> 01:45:15,098
rates for Bitcoin collateralized loans being the cheapest capital to borrow, rather than right now,

1651
01:45:15,578 --> 01:45:19,658
you know, one of the more expensive ones. And I will say that strike specifically, I mean,

1652
01:45:19,658 --> 01:45:24,618
we're actively trying to reduce those rates. And the product is set up in a way

1653
01:45:24,618 --> 01:45:30,538
with no payment penalty and no origination fees so that as those rates go down,

1654
01:45:30,598 --> 01:45:33,358
you can immediately take advantage of them. Like that was very deliberate.

1655
01:45:33,358 --> 01:45:33,458
it.

1656
01:45:35,138 --> 01:45:35,418
Yeah.

1657
01:45:36,178 --> 01:45:37,318
It's a liquidity problem.

1658
01:45:38,298 --> 01:45:40,178
There's a scarcity of liquidity on these

1659
01:45:40,178 --> 01:45:42,298
lending desks for Bitcoin collateralized loans

1660
01:45:42,298 --> 01:45:42,838
and

1661
01:45:42,838 --> 01:45:46,318
if scarcity you can charge

1662
01:45:46,318 --> 01:45:46,538
more.

1663
01:45:55,378 --> 01:45:56,338
Ba-ba-ba-ba.

1664
01:45:56,538 --> 01:45:56,898
All right.

1665
01:45:58,438 --> 01:45:59,218
We'll be tapping out.

1666
01:46:01,398 --> 01:46:02,258
Love you, freaks.

1667
01:46:02,398 --> 01:46:03,258
Stay on the stack side.

1668
01:46:03,358 --> 01:46:05,938
peace love