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You've had a dynamic where money has become freer than free.
If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all the central banks going nuts.
So it's all acting like safe haven.
I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin.
If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.
Man.
Fighter of the Nightman
Master of Karate
I forget the words
We were just singing Dayman
From It's Always Sunny
The gang does Primal
Are we working?
I don't know
Let me check
Dude, if it was up to me
I fucking love Always Sunny
Every title would be
The gang does something
I don't think it's working
let me see if I follow
RHR
just gotta run it live
I don't know
if it's supposed to go out from RHR
let's see RHR
is it yours?
anyway freaks
no no
we always stream from RHR but
the big news of the week
yeah it's not working
hey this is what happens
it looks like no it looks like it's streaming which end pub let's see which end pub we got
oh yeah i'm getting an error when i go to our typical zap.stream
um freaks i've been teasing him for a while but we finally added video streaming to primal
very exciting moment it's happened quicker than expected even though about three weeks ago i said
two weeks that was not actually the internal timeline but it sped everyone up a little bit
so shout out to the primal team um but in proper in proper uh primal fashion we like to build
everything open and interoperable. So the current setup is that you still need to rely on the Zap
Stream backend to do streams. Any streams that go in through Zap Stream or through the Nostra spec
for live streams will be shown in Primal. We tried to do a temporary workaround because Zap
Zapstream is under an increasing DDoS, as you freaks may be aware.
Kieran, actually, who's the lead maintainer of Zapstream, came out this week and speculated
that it's some organization or state that's attacking him because they're sending multiple
terabits per second to him constantly to DDoS's account.
I don't know if that's the case, but whoever it is, we have some sophisticated haters out
there trying to stop the signal. Um, but anyway, right now, if you have primal iOS, you are able
to have a first class video stream watching experience when zap stream is up. Um, and, uh,
it has zaps integrated. It has, you can make the, you know, you can reduce the video and make the
video nice and small and go around and, and scroll and do whatever else you want to do in primal.
and we really just tried to make it a really polished experience.
I think once you guys get to play around with it,
you'll be pleasantly surprised and then hopefully you can give us feedback.
So iOS is available today.
Web should be available next week.
Android should be available the week after that.
I don't know if I was supposed to say those timelines,
but that is our expectation and the Primal team continues to ship.
And then sometime in the future, we will have a full streaming suite where you can actually stream from Primal as well and view in other clients.
But the most important thing for us is that everything we build is interoperable and open.
And we will continue to do that.
But our goal is to replace Twitch and YouTube, make them obsolete.
Gradually, then suddenly, we will make it happen.
so if you haven't downloaded Primal
check it out in your favorite app store
we'd love to have you
shoot the shit, have some fun with it
we've been testing this out the last few days
I've been testing it out on Primal
you have to Matt, I'm sure more than me
but it is
very sleek
who is attacking Zap.Stream?
honestly
I think it's like a Noster
native hater to be honest
um but it's kind of cool to think it's a state or an organization yeah like someone within the
nostril ecosystem um for better for worse we have a slew of haters uh because when you ship things
and you do things uh you tend to stack the haters and the lovers and uh it's one of the best metrics
for success um but also it'd be kind of cool if it was like we can just spread the rumor that's
Amazon trying to stop the signal.
They don't want us to compete with Twitch.
I'm kind of cool with that. It's Bezos.
Bezos is sitting on his yacht somewhere
telling his interns to
attack Zapstream.
I'm seeing it on...
Restream says it's
working.
I'm seeing it on Zap.
Zap.stream now. The gang goes primal.
Are we on Zapstream?
I'm streaming to
both.
I'm streaming to
I'm streaming to both
our hacked backend
and Zapstream right now
because we love you freaks
and the signal
cannot be stopped
started five minutes ago
are we live?
I'm getting
I see the YouTube chat
this is going on
we're uh we're testing and proud though the uh the audio listeners this is the way to do it
what the hell are you two doing this is the way to do it building the open
um but anyway a huge shout to kieran kieran's awesome uh and uh i hope he can
harden zapstream more uh he has our full support um but we will be providing an alternative uh
at some point in the future um because i think the more video streaming hosts
or broadcasters or whatever you want to call it because they're what send out the noster event
um and restream out the streams uh the better uh so we can make this thing robust and open
and interoperable. But this is something we've been head down working on very aggressively.
And I know you freaks have a lot of requests for Primal. Believe it or not, they're all on the list.
It's a really long list. It's a list that seems to pump forever, but we're just trying to knock
them all out. And we don't really like, I know it's kind of ironic because it's not working right
now but we don't like to like beta test on you too much like we like to test things out
significantly and then release um in this case i will say that the actual viewing experience
when the back ends are working is very nice and primal like we spent a lot of times polishing it
i can uh attest to that it is beautiful i am uh
I'm doing a dispatch later today
in three and a half hours.
And what did I say?
At 1900 UTC.
Five Eastern, really?
Yeah, five Eastern.
So if we don't get,
hopefully we can test it out then too.
And if not, we'll keep working.
We'll keep working.
Love you, Freaks.
We love you.
With that, let's get to Clark's dashboard.
An update.
Current price of Bitcoin is 108,540 cuck bucks.
We're dumping, getting back to 1,000 sats per dollar.
921 sats per dollar right now.
Sats are on sale, sitting at a $2.16 trillion market cap.
We're at block height.
to 912,278, which means we are currently 970 blocks away from the next difficulty adjustment,
looking like an upward adjustment of 5.9%.
It's estimated to come on September 4th, so next Thursday.
I'm sure you can hear my middle child screaming in the background.
Very excited about the next difficulty adjustment.
Yes, he is.
brother it's okay we've got 5 398 transactions in clark's mempool if we go over to mempool.space
we are currently looking at 78 120 transactions in his mempool that is because he's recognizing
transactions under one set per vbite i sort of buried the lead there my middle son
just to give you guys some context of why it might be crazy and cloudy in the background.
We had our third son earlier this week.
We welcomed him to the world.
So it's been an incredible, chaotic week.
Very tired, but the show must go on.
Congratulations, Marnie.
Very happy for you guys.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
And it must go on because there's a lot of important stuff going on.
The price is dumping.
You brought this up.
I haven't seen anything on Twitter, as you can imagine.
I haven't been on Twitter as much this week, but it looks like MSTR stockholders are getting margin called.
Yeah, so – well, first off, by the way, freaks, RHR on Primal is primal.net slash RHR, or you can just search RHR in the app.
and dispatch is primaldonad.com.
That's Citadel.
But when I stream out,
I stream out from the Odell account.
But the way the streaming works
is if you follow the account,
it'll pop up on the top
just like it used to on X.
It'll pop up on the top
and notify you that the stream is live
or you can obviously
just manually go to the profile.
But yeah, on to this MSTR stuff.
So like MS, it's interesting.
You know, a lot of eyes have been on Sailor himself getting margin called, which I think is mostly FUD. He's like pretty conservatively leveraged. He's been pretty careful about it. And as much as he says, you know, he doesn't expect any other bear markets, like his actions kind of speak louder than words on that regard. Like he's set up for a pretty deep bear market if that happens to not sell Bitcoin.
but less so has been focused on the actual shareholders themselves
and so what we've seen over the last few weeks on mstr is well for starters
for starters he like the guidance of the shareholder meeting was that they weren't
going to sell more mstr stock to buy bitcoin if it was under two and a half mnav so if the
valuation was under two and a half times the book value of the Bitcoin. They weren't going to sell
more MSTR common stock, which is what they've been doing for almost a year now in size.
And then a few weeks after that, they reversed course and they said, actually, we will still
sell MSTR common stock at our discretion if it makes sense And then they did So on Monday they announced that they did it again And this whole time what we been watching is
basically that MNAV has been compressing. So even when Bitcoin was going up, the MNAV was
compressing. And now that Bitcoin is going down, it seems to be compressing even more. Right now,
it's let me see strategy.com. Right now it's at 1.61 times the Bitcoin, right? So one times would
be Bitcoin. But anyway, I've seen a lot of reports. And then so at the same time, so what a lot of
people do with stocks they hold is they borrow against them. And if they want to really lever up,
then they buy more of the stock with their borrowings. And so we've seen two things happen.
First of all, there's reports that JP Morgan, they increased the margin requirements significantly if you're doing that trade.
And then second of all, the price has gone down a decent amount.
It's trading at what, like $337 right now, I think.
Yes, $337.
So I've seen a bunch of reports of MSTR shareholders being margin called, and then they're selling Bitcoin to cover their margin. And then that drives the price of Bitcoin down, which drives the price of MSTR down more, which margins more people.
So we're seeing like a little bit of a vicious feedback loop right now that I think is part of the reason for this price depreciation or this recent correction or whatever the hell you want to call it to 108.
And not that many people are talking about that.
And this is one of the reasons why it's important to stay humble out there.
And this is a long term game.
There's a lot of survivor bias, right?
Like it, most people, a lot of people that got into Bitcoin have gotten wrecked in the past.
And the survivors are the ones who thrive.
And then the second piece I'd say is like, we're just seeing across all of the paper Bitcoin stocks.
They're just all getting hammered right now.
And I think a lot of people are like, where's retail?
Retail hasn't shown up this cycle.
It's like, well, I think a lot of retail did show up and they've been wrecked on paper Bitcoin summer a little bit.
Yeah.
But yeah, that's my take.
I'm looking at Bitcoin per future funding rates.
They're still, they're not like out of hand, but they're relatively elevated.
So I imagine people are trying to stop out the longs here.
Yeah, and as LV, I'm sorry.
I was saying Zero Hedge has a theory that like Jane Street and those types of Wall Street investors are actively trying to draw the price down lower.
to buy. I think so too. We've definitely got the sophisticated guys there. I would say there's
some conspiracies that JP increased their margin requirements for malicious reasons to drive the
price lower on MSTR specifically. But I will say that Jamie Diamond has a reputation of being very
good at managing risk. So I don't know if there's actually anything malicious there. I think he might
seen a lot of risk on their book and wanted to reduce that risk. And he doesn't have that much
love for Bitcoin, so why put his neck out for it? So I don't think that was actually probably
malicious in that regard, but I could see how that could hit people off guard. I will say though,
on the Saylor's side, it's really odd what he did with the common situation because he released the
preferreds. The preferreds obviously are designed to be accretive to the common.
And I thought he was going to let the common run a little bit.
I think a lot of people that were playing that trade thought he was going to let the common run.
And so the first guidance that he was like, I'm going to stop selling common actually was not surprising.
That made a lot of sense.
And then when he backed off of it, I thought maybe it was for legal reasons.
His lawyers were like, no, you can't tell them that.
You can't do guidance based on MNAP.
But then they actually still sold common.
like you would think you would just let it run give shareholders a little bit of breathing room
there's obviously a lot of angst but yeah like if you've been watching socials there's a lot of
angst among the shareholder class about common getting clobbered um just a weird move it was a
bit of a weird move um but we'll see how it plays out but i i do think uh it is having an effect on
the greater Bitcoin market right now.
Yeah, it is a weird move in the sense that if you're going to come out after your Q2 financials,
have your meeting, basically set the path for shareholders.
Here's the playbook.
Here's the only time we're going to hit the ATM.
We're going to lean on the preferreds.
And then less than a month later, you completely renege on that sort of guidance that you gave
shareholders when you're one of the most heavily traded stocks in the stock market i believe it's
still top five top ten at the very least in terms of volume per day it's a bit odd reeks of
i don't say desperation but maybe a lack of confidence um yeah or maybe maybe it's just
like massive fomo like i want to tap the atm to buy more bitcoin but look and pull up the chart
yeah just to put this into perspective around the numbers if you look at the long liquidations
where we were earlier, August 25th.
So four days ago, earlier this week,
that was the, I did the counting,
a little eye test here.
I think that's the 16th highest liquidation rate
since the beginning or the middle of 2021.
It's come back about four years.
So that's a pretty, pretty big liquidation day.
Yeah, I mean, to the fact that we're trading
still well above 100,
even though that might be me jigsing it.
I think is a pretty good sign of how liquid Bitcoin is right now and how relatively strong it is.
I will say I see LB99 slacker in the YouTube chat since the last chat is not working.
And he's also right.
This is something we've, I think, put a pin on many times on this show, which is there seems to be a silent depression going on where many people are struggling.
while asset prices are trading at all-time highs.
So that's definitely a part of it, I think.
And just on the sailor point, to be clear here,
I think one of the things he deserves a lot of credit for
is he's always been very clear and consistent on the strategy.
And that's what makes the last month kind of odd,
and I think is what has shaken shareholders a lot.
is that this to, to do such big changes so quickly. Um,
and everyone's like questions like, okay, well, what's, what's the move?
Like, what is it, what is his play here? Uh, is, is not,
is out of brand for him. It's, it's, it's unusual for him.
It is.
Nate.
Anybody participating in paper Bitcoin summer, beware, beware, be careful.
Don't get over leveraged.
Stay humble, Stack Sats.
It's a great time to stay humble and Stack Sats.
Always.
Yes.
I'm getting pinged by Ed.
You see this app?
We're selling this app.
We're doing a giveaway right now.
Go to the TFTC account.
Find the...
You got 20 minutes left to retweet this if you want a free hat.
Marty should be better at shilling his shit because I get no money from this,
but you can go to tftcmerch.io if you want to buy one.
If you want to buy it for free, retweet it.
Oh, the humble enough hat game.
You got a massive compliment from my wife this morning.
She loves the hat.
She loves the hat?
It means a lot coming from her.
Freaks, don't sell yourselves out to retweet for a free hat.
Either buy a hat or don't press retweet.
Retweet, retweet.
The chance, the minute chance that you get a free hat is not worth just blindly retweeting engagement bait.
You have a 0.5% chance of winning hat right now.
That's pretty good.
Just go buy a hat.
You have a 1 to 200 chance.
Moving along, I see you.
For your lady, I changed.
Boss.
this debate, it's raging.
It's been raging for well over,
since Roger Ver was around,
pushing merchant adoption.
Store value versus medium exchange.
Bitcoin can never be used as medium exchange.
What's your opinion here, Marty?
I mean, I think we have the same opinion.
Like, you don't have one without the other.
So, it's both.
It's just both.
It's both freaks.
Good money is money that is great for spending and saving, specifically being able to do without permission.
Bitcoin serves both.
And if you didn't have one or the other, it would fail.
So you literally need both and fight over something more interesting.
There's a lot of accounts out there saying it's only a store of value.
And you know what really set it off this week is that clip of Dorsey on, I think, the 21 Questions podcast.
Yeah, but that's like five months old.
With Haley.
I mean, it's five months old, but the clip resurfaced and people...
Well, you know why it resurfaced, right?
Because of us.
And you didn't say that it was five months old when you posted it.
Trevor, Trevor.
Listen to Matt.
I don't run the account.
The TOTC account posted a five-month-old clip of Dorsey saying it needs to be used as money.
and it set it all off again.
Yeah.
Robin Linus was hopping in.
Dorsey was retweeting things.
It just became a whole thing.
Well, I think really to lean into, you need both.
You can't have one without the other.
Like Bitcoin only has valuable, only has valuable,
I can tell Tyron, only has value because of the fact
that it's censorship resistant peer-to-peer digital cash.
That can be sent from peer to peer without permission through the distributed network.
And it just so happens to have a supply cap of 21 million, which is the scarcest thing on the planet.
It's the most finite thing on the planet.
Somebody was diving into the semantics of this.
It's very finite.
And the finite nature, as demand goes up, supply stays static, price is going to go up.
and there are many out there, myself included,
think it is worthwhile to hold it for the long term.
As demand continues to increase, it'll push the price up
because supply is not elastic with the demand.
But people need to send money, better money, good money,
in ways that the traditional fiat rails don't allow them.
And I bought soap this week.
I loaded up with SoapMire.
That's the other part of it.
I bought eight bars of soap.
It cost me, I think, 72,000 sats.
And he only accepts Bitcoin.
The soap is so good.
I need it.
I had to spend Bitcoin.
I'm sorry.
Sorry if that makes me a blasphemous hodler.
No, look, I think, well, first of all,
I do think merchant adoption will be heavily influenced
by merchants that only accept Bitcoin.
So if you want good products,
you have to use Bitcoin. On that note, you can go to silldispatch.com slash shop to buy a hat.
I only accept Bitcoin. No fiat allowed. But I mean, I think it's even simpler than that, Marty.
Well, first of all, I think Bitcoin wasn't the first attempt to try and solve this P2P
permissionless cash problem or solution. The reason Bitcoin has been successful is because
it increases in purchasing power over time because it has that fixed supply element,
because it incentivizes people to hold it. It incentivizes people to mine. It incentivizes
people to build out the ecosystem around it. But at the end of the day, okay, your savings are
increasing in value. They didn't actually increase in value if you can't spend it without permission,
because how can you actually realize that value? How can you go out and buy soap or
buy cows or buy a house or buy a car with that wealth that you've accrued, if it requires
permission to actually realize it, then it's not your money. It's just an IOU. And this is why that
it's two pieces of the same coin, two sides of the same coin. You need both. You absolutely need
both. And they're being built out in tandem. In the West, the investment use case, the savings
use case is the predominant use case. But we see in places all around the world where it's actually
the medium of exchange use case is more dominant, where they actually want to hold dollars,
they prefer to hold dollars. But when they can't make a transaction with a USD token,
or with dollars in another way, then they use Bitcoin because Bitcoin is actually
censorship resistant and very difficult to stop or seize.
so it all comes together
argue about more important shit
or more interesting shit
or just keep arguing about this
but it really doesn't matter if you do
what matters is that we
actually keep marching forward
and build out this ecosystem
and use the tools
I think this is
a good opportunity to really
highlight why
we're doing this
pull up the diligent denizen tweet
I put in there
Obviously, I'm sure you're all aware of the terrible tragedy that unfolded in Minneapolis, Minnesota earlier this week with the mass shooting. I'm not going to comment on that. It's terrible.
There is obviously a mental health crisis in this country that many people don't want to focus on.
But in reaction to this, it seems like there are opportunists looking to thrust surveillance technology on us almost immediately.
So, Logan, if you just play the clip from the beginning, it's very short.
I think it's like 30 seconds.
Correct.
I am now about to launch Gideon, America's first ever AI threat detection platform built
specifically for law enforcement.
It scrapes the Internet 24 using an Israeli ontology to pull specific threat language and then routes it to local law enforcement It a 24 detective It never sleeps and it going to get us in front of these attacks Would it have picked up on this do you think
100%. I wish my program would already be up. We're not launching until next week. I've got a dozen
agencies on board, Trace. I just unloaded a major Northeast agency with over 2,700 sworn.
this is America's early warning system.
Is that correct?
Yeah.
Dystopian as fuck.
Yeah.
So we're wrapping this in Save the Children,
prevent mass shootings.
Here's AI 24-7 online detective
to detect pre-crime and report it to authorities.
So minority report coming real, in real time.
You know it's really fucked when...
They use Israeli grade as a selling point.
Israeli grade ontology.
I don't even know what that means.
I was trying to dissect the ontology part of that phrase.
You got to imagine his lawyers are freaking out that he said 100% guaranteed.
Yeah.
But yeah, this is like the Palantir playbook.
They're rolling all this shit out.
This is the reality that we have to be operating under.
free crime, knowing all your thoughts.
I mean, we might as well jump to it since you jumped to that.
I have it at the end of the list, Logan,
but Anthropic just changed their terms of service.
The major AI provider.
Now they will be planning on saving all user chats for five years.
And if you don't opt out by September 28th,
They will actually be training the AI on your private chats, building profiles on users.
This is another reason why things like Maple are incredibly important, private AI, secure AI.
Because this tech, there's so much promise in LLM stuff, particularly open source LLM stuff.
But once again, in the near term, the single biggest use case for it is surveillance and control.
Like just building, they're going to have, very soon, they will have tools that will know how you think and what you think about better than yourself, better than you actually realize yourself.
If you're using these tools and using social and having digital connected lives in a way that you're not actually thinking about what you're putting out there.
um very advanced profiles on people that can just be very they search through with like natural
language stuff right tell me everyone who's interested in this thing that lives in this area
that works in this field and just boom just flag it all yeah well it looks like anthropics giving
you an opt-out option so you haven't yeah but supposedly yeah i mentioned that but supposedly
it's like super dark pattern like it's really difficult to find and do and execute i'm not an
anthropic user myself but uh our buddy sean uh uh bitcoin park member is and he said he tried to
opt out he posted on us he tried to opt out it was very difficult and also once again like they're
still saving your chats for five years you can't opt out of that part um so who the hell knows uh
You're still trusting them that the opt-out toggle actually is an opt-out toggle and actually doing shit.
Yeah.
Anthropic frames the changes around user choice saying that by not opting out, users will help us improve model safety, make mind systems for detecting harmful content more accurate and less likely to flag harmless conversations.
Rewrite another way.
Like if you say bad shit, we're going to snitch on you.
users will also help future clog models improve at skills like coding analysis and reasoning
ultimately leading to better models for all users that's the worst part is they gaslight you as they
do all this shit yeah it's like they just think everyone's retarded i've been to the
people in my life i've talked to a couple of high school kids and teachers actually that are diving
into apparently here in the philly area like the the schools are actually leaning into it at least
some of them where i know a teacher who started last week and like the first day of orientation
was teaching them how to use ai tools to better help create syllabuses and curriculum and find
unique sources and he had just started playing around with it his mind was blown with chat gvt
specifically the advice i gave him and anybody else i talked about this is just literally use it
as a tool to find information don't treat it as your therapist don't bring any like personal
information about your your marriage or your your life as a parent or whatever into it just like i
need to find out what the gdp of brazil was in 2017 or something like that i mean what's better
is just use maple that is or self-host self-host or use something that's actually private like maple
because i think most at the end of the day like if advice requires nuance like most people will
fuck it up um but yeah like you can like back your way into answers that don't
dox too much information about you but it's quite difficult uh
most people won't it's better if we just have private or self-hosted tools that are inherently
private um and people use those instead because i'm telling you marty like the overwhelming
majority of people you can like when you listen to normie shows and stuff they're just like
putting their entire life into chat gpt just everything uploading documents medical records
like literally
connecting their emails
that's what
perplexity they launched
I think it's called
comment browser
and I downloaded it
for literally two minutes
because as soon as you open it
it's like connect your Gmail
and your calendars
and all this
I was like nope
I'm good
no yeah there's
there's some
by the way
if you haven't used Maple
you can search Maple AI
in your favorite app store
go to try maple.ai
give it a spin
it's still
a work in progress but if you subscribe it helps speed up development and those guys are a two-man
team they're bootstrapping everything i mean 1031 is a is an investor um but we're talking like
small pre-seed check and um they're trying to do it on a very shoestring budget which is pretty
cool to see um you've got a i uh because on this topic some person maple's good but what are your
thoughts on venice like venice have you ever used it it's vorhees's thing yeah it's privacy
just like trust me bro privacy like yeah i don't think there's any actual privacy guarantees there
um and it also relies on the shitcoin i think but i haven't used it and so i can't really speak
heavily on it um i'm not but uh i see someone else mentioning start nine like
yeah like i would like to see it become easier to self-host and i think star 9 is going to play a
key role there just self-host these open models but i also think at the end of the day most people
are going to actually want like a signal type environment where you have secure enclaves in
the cloud that give you the convenience of these hosted models but with pretty strong privacy
guarantees i think that's probably the sweet spot in terms of user base but it's always important
that we also have self-hosted options,
at least for power users or people that care more.
But that will always be more inconvenient.
Just onto your previous point, Marty.
I mean, the dark pattern we're seeing with these AI tools
is it's the first real,
you're talking about perplexity as browser.
It's the first real time since the invention of the ad model
where big tech has like a really, really strong incentive
to just hoover up as much data on us as possible.
and you got to just follow the incentives all the way down, right?
Like if they can make a shit ton of money surveilling us,
they're going to do it.
And so you mix the ad model in with these LLM models,
and then all of a sudden it just gets supercharged
and just that much more evil.
Pretty fucked up.
Very fucked up.
And like on this note, everybody's hot and bothered with,
with
AI
it does feel a bit bubbly right now.
It feels like there may be some deflation in the AI
bubble. NVIDIA came out.
I don't know if it was an earnings report this week
or just a shareholder
call.
They revealed that 25%
of their revenue, I believe year to date
is coming from one
client out of Singapore.
Man.
it's probably trying to yeah just getting out of chinese export because there's chinese export
restrictions so they do it out of singapore instead i mean look i think uh there's obviously
insane amount of money floating around there and it's so early if i'm gonna put my investor hat on
it's so early it's really hard to figure out where that value is actually going to be captured
i mean if you listen to people talking about ai shit and ai hype on the investing side they're
often talking about top line revenue. You'll hear ARR be repeated over and over again,
annual recurring revenue. But they never talk about margins or how much profit they're making.
So the real question is, where will the profit be driven? Who will capture that profit? And I think
most people have no idea right now. I think you're kind of making a guess. And there's so much money
sloshing around that you can basically bet that for every $10 that's being thrown into that space,
maybe $1 is actually allocated to the right spot, just because there's so much and there's so little
we understand in the value capture chain. So high risk, high reward, at least on the investor side
with the 1031 hat on, we're being very conservative in that regard,
particularly compared to the traditional venture peers
that we compete against, the A16Zs, the Sequoias of the world.
But yeah, I think there's probably going to be a reckoning there
for a lot of people.
Evaluations are insane in the AI space.
But on this topic, you vibe-coded something this week.
last week? Yeah. So as the freaks know, this cycle, I've proclaimed that I'm not going to be
making price predictions, which has just been killing me. So I had everyone else on Nostra
make price predictions instead. I actually, I put my son to sleep and I was going to bed.
Right before I went to bed, I sent out this Nostra note and I said, let's play a game,
And guess the USD Bitcoin price a month from now, September 26th at 414 UTC.
I said people had 24 hours to make a guess.
I went to sleep.
I woke up.
There were 600 responses.
I was like, what the fuck?
Did not expect that.
And I was like, how am I going to go through all these responses?
So then I went on to Shakespeare.DIY, which is maintained by Alex Gleason.
I recently had him on Sillow Dispatch twice.
Definitely go listen to those episodes.
He's a fascinating individual.
I'm very happy that we have him building on Bitcoin and Noster.
He formally built out Truth Social for Trump just for a little bit of his resume.
But in three prompts, I vibe coded this portal to track the predictions.
It's not perfect, but it took about 15 minutes.
I think it's pretty fucking cool.
It originally showed when the prediction deadline is, but now that's passed.
And Logan, if you just scroll down, it gives the current timer for when the price gets locked in.
It shows the current Bitcoin price.
And then it shows who is the closest to the current prediction.
Now, one of the really cool things here is the Nostra notes themselves are the source of truth.
And it doesn't require an API to interact with them, right?
Because Nostra is an open data and comms identity protocol.
So actually a bunch, anyone can just vibe their own competing site to this to track the predictions themselves.
And they can put their own filters on it.
They can do whatever they want with the data.
So some people are like, oh, you should do this.
You should do that.
It's like, yeah, go be the change you want to see in the world.
And you can build your own tracker.
And if it's better than mine, then we'll use that one instead.
But it also got me thinking with all the hype around poly market and prediction markets are something in general that I've been.
particularly fascinated by and excited by for years now.
Historically, the way prediction markets work is you put money on the line, right?
And the more money you put on, the higher weight your predictive ability is treated in the market, right?
So if you bet $100 on Trump winning the election, it matters less towards the overall prediction rate than if you bet $100,000.
dollars well what if we also like weighted in reputation um so if you use web of trusts
um webs of trust and reputation you could actually and something open like nostr
you could have prediction markets or prediction whatever maybe they're not markets
but you could have prediction tools that have a different perspective depending on who's viewing
them. If I think certain people have better predictive capabilities in global economics
than Marty, when Marty views the predictions, he actually sees a different outcome than I do
because he has different weightings on different people. To me, that's pretty fascinating.
Basically, right here, the only incentive here is the winner of this gets 5,000 sats and
and street cred.
So it was very low cost.
700 people responded, I think.
My vibe-coded website is only tracking 400 of them.
So some work needs to be done.
But I promise you, Freaks, if you win...
Yeah, go on.
I was going to say, if you toggle from Primal to Nostra.band,
it picks them all up.
Oh, awesome. There you go.
You can switch relays, which is pretty cool.
but I promise you freaks if someone wins and it's not on the price prediction thing and you're not a
bot like I'm I'll pay out and I actually don't think I needed the vibe thing to I just thought
that was fun but to track it because I also can be pretty positive that if someone guesses it right they going to let me know that they guessed it right They not going to go quietly in the night
Do you have an alarm set?
What do you mean?
Make you aware?
Yeah, so the vibe, that site, when the countdown ends,
the price will lock in on that site.
and it should say who is the winner boss um oh the other funny thing is the prize was 5 555 sats
but i spent 27 000 sats to vibe code the tracker well that was the other cool thing i should have
made the prize more i was just playing around this is another great example of a
their paper call if you use claude son of four which is the paper call version i imagine you're
paying with bitcoin well yeah that's i was this was paper call um yeah and i paid with bitcoin
through shakespeare.diy um and uh so it's not a subscription it's like how big is the project how
many prompts do you do like i said this was three prompts but it kind of got a little the context
window got a little bit big i probably could have done it a little bit more efficiently
um it was fun though it was a fun little experiment i would say marty i think you know what
do you know what this means right what live rhr bet tracker isn't that's what's next
um it's something we've dreamed of for a while um so we actually don't have that many outstanding
bets right now but we'll make the live rhr bet tracker and then we'll escalate our betting
to fill it up a little bit.
We have...
Yeah, you're going to pay me for BitBonds.
That's it. That's the only one.
BitBonds.
I've been on a winning streak lately
since my wife told me to stop betting on mempools.
Speaking of betting,
betting on mempools is probably wiser than
betting on shitcoins if you're an endowment.
The University of Chicago blew their endowment
on shitcoins.
The story came from the Stanford review.
You have a competing university calling out University of Chicago.
It's pretty fucked up because they're like, in the article, they're like, University of Chicago is like teeny weeny endowment compared to Stanford.
Let me find the good juicy part here.
we're requesting that all university researchers working on federal grants temporarily suspend
their non-personnel spending on federal grants as much as possible during this period of substantial
uncertainty for example do not make any additional spending commitments purchase new supplies or
equipment start new experiments embark unfunded travel etc so this was an email that university
chicago sent out to all their grant recipients which i guess started a trail of questions of why
why are we stopping these grants what's happening here which led to um basically the unveiling of
fact that uh university of chicago went heavy into uh shit coins in 2020 i believe um and
you're sort of you're they're like backing into the conclusion that they're down big on shit coins
because the University of Chicago doesn't disclose investment performance or allocations by asset class,
make it difficult to pinpoint exactly what went wrong.
However, its target allocations reveal its ideal allocation to private debt and absolute return investments,
including alternative assets like crypto, fell from 25.5% in 2020 to 20% in 2022,
and seeing out a route in risky alternative investments.
But beyond the conspicuous crypto failure, UChicago's endowment returns are abysmal.
From 2013 to 2023, UChicago's endowment returned just 7.48% annualized versus 12.8% for the stock market and 10.8% for Ivy League schools.
This is the Ivy and Stanford shitting on UChicago.
I would say we didn't talk to the UChicago team specifically.
but with our 1031 hats on,
we've had a lot of discussions
with various endowments
and we've had the privilege
of partnering with a few
and they were getting
just whole hog hit
by all the crypto VCs
and a lot of them went down
the wrong path there
and it was always a hard conversation to have
because they were promised
too good to be true returns.
um they didn't really know better um and we're starting to really watch that basically watch what
we said privately and publicly on the show kind of play out among all these investment committees
um i think i've talked about in the past but like usually someone doesn't invest with you when you
tell them you think they've been scammed um but i think like four years later when they're like oh
shit we were and those guys were right um some trust can get built up there so uh i think pain
is probably the best lesson and it's unfortunate to see you know it happened to an esteemed
education institution such as university of chicago that's funny going and pitching a lot
of these endowments they'll look at us like we're crazy because we're focused on bitcoin only at 1031
and they say you're not diversified we need to diversify how do you know it's going to be bitcoin
and it's like been around the block we've seen it uh focus is key and if you price any other asset
in bitcoin over a five to ten year period it's going down significantly you are and it's ironic
too so for any of you uh institutional investors whether on the endowment the pension family
office side listening to this a lot of these institutions have no exposure to bitcoin get
bamboozled by these crypto VCs. They go all in and they're fed the lie of pure diversification
where really they're all concentrated on highly speculative crypto projects. And a lot of those
crypto funds have no exposure to Bitcoin, spot Bitcoin, or the companies building out infrastructure
for Bitcoin. So a lot of these institutions think they have exposure to crypto, which they do,
but they have no exposure to Bitcoin,
which is just a compounded loss
in terms of missing out on the upside of Bitcoin
and the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Yeah, so they're wrong on the diversification line
to begin with,
and then they're not actually even diversified.
Yeah.
I won't say who, but I'm having flashbacks to a call where
Matt had to politely explain stacks to an institution.
I did like the deep breath sailor meme.
I read that white paper so others didn't have to.
I set you up for that one too.
I was like, Matt, why don't you take this one?
Matt's our internal stacks expert.
it yeah this is those people didn't that that group didn't invest no they didn't like what they
had like you said they don't like what we had to say they don't like they don't like when you say
ah we think you made the wrong decision and you're not diversified um but here's a perfect example
like a lot of the crypto bros are pitching web 3.0 web 2.0 is lame we got all these
diversified blockchains we've been saying it for years a real web 3.0 is really just combining
open source protocols in novel creative unique ways to get the censorship resistance and
distribution necessary to produce in a particular use case and we have this on the list this week i
didn't know about it till before we had record i was reading through the github page but this
dtan server distributed torrent archive on nostr self-replicating torrent index built on nostr
protocol which is an incredible example of combining open source protocols um file sharing
protocols and nostr communications protocol no blockchain necessary yeah so this is um so kieran
of zapstream this is uh one of his side projects um looks awesome i haven't run it yet um but i
love the concept um basically if you've ever used torrents it's hard to find like a reputable
index um on which torrents are good torrents and which torrents are are not as useful or poor
quality. Chorrents specifically have kind of developed like their own little ecosystem where
you have like private clubs that are invite only that tend to have the best index lists.
And then you have stuff like Pirate Bay and the more open ones that are kind of filled with a
bunch of trash that are hard to sort through and have ads and stuff to monetize. So the dream here
is that you'd have distributed torrent indexes
with webs of trust built into it, right?
So without private groups
and without invite-only kind of situations,
you're able to sort through all the noise
and find the signal
and find the torrent files that you want.
Torrents are already proven tech.
They're great for distributing large files.
You're in a trust-minimized way.
And, yeah, Nostra can help with the distribution and the reputation concerns that just aren't solved by torrents natively.
Yeah, and I'm sure they've thought about it, but you can easily, this has already been implemented in BitTorrent, but never really got popular, but putting a Bitcoin paywall in front of a file to help incentivize people to seed certain files, keep them running.
Yeah, I don't know.
I'm like
I like the idea of bounties
more than paywalls
that's a good one
hey I've got a thousand sats
for anybody who will find me
the hash of this file
like I have the hash of a file
I need this file and I will pay for it
so that reverse incentive
I like that
and
we are building that out on
Noster with Blossom spec,
which I'm pretty excited about.
Yeah.
But you can do it with Torrance too.
Yeah.
All right, we hit everything on the list.
Nice, we got our tight hour.
Tight hour.
While everybody's fighting over medium exchange,
store of value,
we're going to try and bring you the signal
And while everybody else is focused on paper Bitcoin summer, I will say there's a lot of good building going on in the space that really bring Bitcoin back to its cypherpunk roots and is trying to ensure that the protocol is sufficiently distributed.
had a really good conversation with Tyler Stevens from the space in Exergy earlier this week so just
pulling up the tweet here but I think they're doing really cool things to bring mining to
the world of heating industrial and residential heating and so what you're seeing here on screen
is a prototype that they built at the space in Denver which is a Bitcoin co-working and event
space that you should go check out if you're ever in Denver. I haven't been yet, need to go.
But it was pretty cool talking to him, how they built this and the potential for mining to replace
home heating systems, mining machines or just heaters at the end of the day. And I think what
was most inspiring and made me incredibly optimistic about this conversation is that
I think we're getting to the point of ASIC commodification, where we're reaching the
physical limits of the efficiencies that the ASICs can hit in terms of joules per terahash,
where it seems like mining is destined to go back into the home in one way or another.
And I think this heating use case is a perfect vehicle to bring mining back home.
So I'm actually incredibly bullish on the long-term potential of sufficient geographic
hash rate distribution and hash rate ownership because of applications like this.
And it's just really cool to see that Tyler, I didn't really, I've met him and we met for the first time in Nashville beginning of this year, but I've seen him two or three other times at conferences across the country, most recently in Georgia at the Proto event.
But this was the first time I heard his background.
He was working for a defense contractor, quit his job, decided to go all in on Bitcoin mining and heat reuse.
And it's really cool to see him in the space building out XRG.
put his money where his mouth is walk i mean on the topic of real bitcoin fall
as we phase out of paper bitcoin summer um i'm having the boys from frost snap on
seal dispatch today i think i said 1900 utc it's 2100 utc i'm usually good on my utc map but 5 p.m
eastern time they have a new hardware wallet that's coming out that's used as for all you have
it on you um that is it's like human centipede so that it has usb ports and then you plug it into
your phone and then you make a multi-sig by plugging them into each other um they got like
little screens on them i'm sure they appreciate you calling their their product the human centipede
of bitcoin well it's bitcoin centipede is what it is it's bitcoin centipede but it's supposed to
make multi-sig very easy to use, especially in a mobile-first environment. So I'm pretty excited
to talk to them about that. All these different tools to make self-custody Bitcoin easier,
Bitcoin is free to money easier. I think that's how we win, is making that ecosystem more robust,
making the education more robust, increasing the user base on that front. So less complaining on
socials and more like actually doing things that change things uh it's the way
and then on the frost i'm like i think it's a really cool invention i guess you say a really
cool product in the sense that like it makes multi-sig tangible because you need them
connected right to get the frost star should to actually sign a key and there's another there's
Something intuitive.
No, I think it's just, I think the human sent, the Bitcoin sent to Pete for, well, I'll ask them.
We'll have this conversation later, but I think it's just for setup.
I think you can, like the coordinators, the phone, right?
So if you have like one in your office, one in a safe deposit box and one at your home, I think you can individually plug them into sign.
Yes.
But when you're doing the setup.
You have to plug them in though, right?
To sign, I believe.
Yeah, correct.
Yeah, they use USB-C.
so it just plugs right into the bottom of the phone.
But to set it up, you set it up by
say coin centipeding them together.
Pretty cool.
Did you ever watch that movie?
I never watched you even centipede.
No, but I saw the South Park about it.
I did too.
No, I'm not going to watch that fucking movie.
It was a creepy fucking movie.
All right.
I'm going to get back to my new chaotic life,
which is great, great chaos.
Yeah, it's been a good week.
It's been a good week.
More children.
Make babies.
If you're margin-long micro-strategy,
maybe it's not a good week for you,
but maybe we stay humble, stack sats,
and keep making babies.
That's the simple life.
you know that's how we win oh on that note my favorite psyop of all time i think is uh
huge congratulations to t swift and and kelsey for getting engaged marty they gonna get married they gonna have four linebacker children and they gonna bring bring in the next great american generation
we're gonna reverse the birth decline gdp is gonna go through the roof t swift is gonna save us all
or is it gonna end up like tom brady and giselle we're in like 20 years t swift dumps
Travis Kelsey and start soaking up with their jujitsu instructor.
That's a possible timeline as well.
Look, as long as we have 20 years of increased birth rate,
increased marriages, then the PSYOP was successful.
It doesn't matter what happens after that 20 years.
It's true.
Be kind to people out there.
Be kind.
There's a lot of vitriol out there.
I mean, the whole reaction.
I won't even get into it.
Just be kind to people.
Did you see Feebo's comment in the YouTube on that note?
Just bobbing in my mouth.
Look, I think what you meant to say is thank you, T-Swift.
Thank you for saving us all.
And I see Elle in the chat.
Giselle has many babies, so thank you, Giselle.
Yeah, thank you, Giselle.
I think she's pregnant again with the new guy.
I do not follow.
So, but.
While we're on sports ball,
Kyle Schwarber hit four home runs last night.
It was pretty sick.
Shout out to Kyle Schwarber.
Thank you.
I'm the Philadelphia's.
There you go.
Well, love your freaks.
Love your Marty.
Stay humble, Stacks heads.
Peace and love.
Okay.